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The State of Modern (*NSFW*)

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This has been making the rounds on the internet, and it's pretty funny.

The video, in classic "Downfall parody style" uses English subtitles to tell a story irrespective of the actual dialogue that English speakers won't understand. It's a tale about out-of-touch Wizards policies regarding Modern. I wouldn't watch it at work, necessarily, but when you get a chance to enjoy this in a non-work environment, you'll get a kick out of it. I don't agree with all of the conclusions the creator came to, but the laughter is infectious. You'll see. Enjoy!

How much do we agree with what the video says about Jace being too good to be unbanned?

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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When Tournaments Don’t Pay Out

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Remember CardMageddon? I was really excited about the idea at first, but the execution was sorely lacking. The independently run GP-prize-level tournament was a dismal failure at every conceivable level, but as discussed previously, the owner had a good attitude about it.

Well, apparently that good attitude was just meant to throw people off the scent, because word is that players aren't getting paid.

IMG_4998 (1)

Players have asked on MTG Salvation and Reddit how to pursue this, and per those threads, it looks like all the major figures associated with this event have gone dark for the last month or two.

With the big caveat that I am not a lawyer nor a tournament organizer, I fear that these players may just be out of luck here, but maybe a community-minded MTG-playing attorney can help out in some way. This whole situation is a real shame. We'll keep you updated if anything new comes to light.

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Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

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Insider: Casual Hits, Dragons Edition

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It’s been a while since I revisited this series, but I think now is the perfect time.

And what a time it is. Standard is actually an awesome format right now. Modern may not be perfect but the Pro Tour was exciting. Commander is ever-popular and Tiny Leaders is exploding in demand. On top of all of that, prices are moving up as they always do this time of the year.

Good news all around. And that brings me back to the “Casual hits.”

Almost nothing is more guaranteed to rise when Magic is doing well than casual cards. Your Imperious Perfects or mythic angels (Avacyn, for instance). Those cards that you rarely see at tournaments but always see (or would, if you were there) at the kitchen table.

This has long been my favorite subsection of cards to deal with, from the days when it was because traders didn’t value them high enough to my more modern view, where these can be counted on to rise predictably, not subject to sudden metagame shifts.

I want to start by looking at some of the ones I called out during my last article in this series, six months ago, that I think are good moves right now. I also want to offer a few suggestions for cards to watch out for after that, but I’m saving my “Casual Hits of Tarkir block” piece for after we see the contents of Dragons of Tarkir.

Gods

Then:

"Before I go any further, let’s talk about all 15 of the gods. I dubbed these 'Eldrazi' when the set premiered, and I expect them to follow basically the same trajectory. They’ll all bottom out at some point, and at that time I’ll begin stocking up. I especially like the ones from Born of the Gods or Journey into Nyx because they were opened so much less. Of course, foils will be even better since they’re so good in Commander. Something like Kruphix is just going to be a sure money-maker."

Now: We are definitely at the point I mentioned in the article. Very few of these guys are actually relevant in Standard, so the prices aren’t being affected by that quite so much. But every one of these guys has bottomed out or is beginning to tick up slightly.

I still think the Eldrazi comparison is apt, and I still love picking these guys up right now on the cheap. It’s a long-term play for sure, but a good one nonetheless.

Sliver Hivelord

Then:

"I’m not positive yet how far this will fall. I certainly don’t think you pick it up before October, since there are enough slivers in Standard right now to try and make it work. I think we’ll see a fair dropoff come rotation, and depending on how low it drops you want to either pick it up then or wait. I’ll be looking to acquire these in November-December. The same goes for Sliver Hive."

Now: This has played out exactly how I thought it would, and the Hivelord fell all the way down to $4. It’s moved back up since then, to nearly $7, all coming on a gradual incline. This is exactly what organic demand for a Sliver favorite looks like, and the steady growth will continue, with some small spikes in places.

This was a mythic from a Core Set, and it’s a tough candidate to reprint. Picking them up in November and December was the low point as I guessed, but picking them up now is still a great play.

Sliver Hive has performed much the same, though the growth has been even more drastic. Still a solid play at $3 or lower.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Then:

"$5 for this feels wrong long-term. The original was $20+ before the reprinting, and in a few years this printing will have easily doubled up just based on the built-in appeal."

Now: While I was certainly right in my call here, it didn’t even take a full year for the double-up to occur. The real question now is if Urborg will fall from the $9 price it’s at, an all-time (non-prerelease) high. I actually like getting in on these now still, because even if they fall some at rotation, I still expect this to be $15-20 in 18-24 months.

Perilous Vault

Then:

"I really like getting into this once it hits $2-3. It will be an EDH player for a long-time to come, and given how it’s taking up a mythic spot in Magic 2015 I don’t expect them to retain that premium real estate for it going forward. This seems to be like it can easily find $10-12 in 18 months."

Now: This hit $3 in October as I guess, and is $11 today. Pretty proud of this call, but I think the upside right now is limited given its connection to Standard. Instead I simply want to draw attention to this as something to remember when rotation comes around again and we see it dip back down.

Preeminent Captain & Crucible of Fire

Then:

"This year we have a few that created expensive cards in the past. Preeminent Captain and Crucible of Fire may not seem like much, but both were $5 before the reprint. I think it will take some time to see them climb back that high, but I have faith that both will be solid $3 in 18-24 months. Given that they’re essentially bulk throw-ins right now, it’s hard to lose."

Now: The Captain is falling into the bulk bin, which seems like a great place for a super-cheap play on these. I doubt it ever goes back to $5, but it’s a throw-in in trade that could be $3 again.

Crucible, on the other hand, has gone from bulk to over a dollar and climbing. Obviously this is somewhat tied to Standard speculation, but I’m still super confident of seeing this go back to $5 in the time frame I outlined. It’s still a dollar rare and still a throw-in, and still a great target.

Other Cards to Watch

Door of Destinies

It’s nearing an all-time high of just over $3, and was a solid $9-10 card before the reprint. This will continue to climb, and is a great target to double up in two years.

Scourge of the Throne

Not as cheap as the others (sitting at $7 today), but Scourge is actually extremely difficult to find, and really good in Commander. It’s slowly climbed from that $5-7 range and is a dragon, so there’s a lot of momentum here to believe it could be $15 in a short time frame. This was a mythic in Conspiracy, so it’s going to move hard.

Unwinding Clock

Dwindling supply and a printing from New Phyrexia means this quirky artifact has room to grow, and it’s showing a lot of momentum at $2 right now. This will randomly be $6-8 a year or so from now, and is an easy card to grab from binders and stash.

Rune-Scarred Demon

This is actually close to a must-play in black Commander decks, and the price just keeps rising. The fact that the foil is $6.50 to the original’s $5 tells me it was probably in a sealed product of some kind (correct me if I’m wrong), but either way this feels reprintable so the foils are a better play.

Rise of the Dark Realms

A personal favorite game-ender in Commander. The non-foils are showing strong momentum at $4, and the foils are just $8. A mythic from a Core Set (that comes up a lot, huh?). Lots to like on both versions, but especially foils.

Scourge of Valkas

Don’t look now, but Balefire Dragon is an $8 card. Scourge of Valkas is just $2.50, and a mythic from a Core Set. Huge upside here.

 

Looking back, it seems like the dragon theme is strong. But dragons have always been a big deal in Magic, and will be even more after getting yet another Spring set named after them. Huge upside to all of these guys.

And the rest of it, too. Don’t forget those. Standard is great right now, but so is the safe, “Casual Hits” scene. Have your Tasigurs, I’ll take the Dragons.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: PTQ’s, PPTQ’s & RPTQ’s

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So you want to qualify for the Pro Tour...

This past weekend was the end of an era--the era of the PTQ. Some of us will mourn, others will reminisce, but most of us will just try to figure out what happens next.

When I first heard the news that our love-hate relationship with PTQ's would come to an end, I was ecstatic. The possibility exists that I may have been under the influence of losing-the-win-and-in syndrome at the time, but there weren’t any witnesses to confirm it.

There will always be changes to this great game we love. Every time people will proclaim that the sky is falling. Once the panic settles, the hive mind will dissect every nuance and develop a game plan and we will modify our behavior accordingly. The community of dedicated players devotes their time to making sure this past time continues into the future. The pros won’t hesitate to splatter their opinions across all social media as well as write about these situations in their articles.

That recurring sequence is a positive thing. When a change comes that is negative, there will be not only hostility, but also a plan. It’s not all complaining; there will also be suggestions for improvement.

So, with the end of the PTQ system, comes a new animal altogether (and with more letters). Let’s dive right in.

The New System

I’m sure you all know by now that in order to play in the new PTQ's, Regional PTQ’s (RPTQ), you must first win a store tournament called a Preliminary Pro Tour Qualifier. These events have been abbreviated in a number of ways. The most common is Pre-PTQ, or PreTQ for short. In other games, they have Store Championships. I think that Magic should adopt that instead of tons of letters, but then we don’t have the association with the old system. Either way, you must win a local event in order to play in the Regional PTQ.

The main reason for the update to our previous system, was that attendance for PTQ’s was going through the roof and there were lots of horror stories about how poorly stores were running these events. Most stores were not accustomed nor large enough to handle this type of event where over one hundred players regularly showed up.

I know I personally have many bad memories associated with PTQ’s that were run by stores. There were also some stores that excelled and held amazing events with thousands of dollars of prize money in addition to the Pro Tour qualification. The majority of PTQ’s run by stores were not well run though, and so a changed needed to take place.

When Wizards dropped the bomb on us that they were redoing the entire system, they projected nearly the same attendance for these Pre-PTQs as they were getting from the previous system. From my experience, that has not been the case at all. From the data I’ve collected, mainly East Coast US, the new system is drawing on average less than 64 players per event. These numbers are well under what we expected them to be.

I think the main reason for low attendance at these events is that stores are not incentivizing the event beyond the additional tournament qualification. If this system is going to be successful, stores are going to need to step up their game. By increasing their prize support, they will also increase their attendance and this system will thrive.

If you want to qualify for the Pro Tour, you will need to win one of these Pre-PTQ’s, but for most of us, we will have multiple opportunities to do so. Within driving distance, you should be able to play in at least a couple different events. Winning an event like this is no walk in the park, but it’s a manageable goal.

These new qualifiers are definitely more accessible than those in the previous system. You should be able to drive over to your local game store and play in at least one of these events per season. If you are serious about qualifying, you can drive and find many more opportunities. We had players drive from over two hours away to play in our event. This is not typical, but it is possible.

Regional PTQ's

So you won a Pre-PTQ, now what?

Last week, I wrote a detailed report about winning a Pre-PTQ with my unique Abzan Aggro list. If you haven’t read that article yet, make sure you take some time and read about my epic adventure. Once you have won an event, you can make plans to attend a Regional PTQ. If you have pro points, you can also qualify to play in one of these events based on your pro level, but for most of us, we need a win to get us qualified.

The first of these Regional PTQ’s takes place on April 25, 2015. I will be there, so I will be able to give you some firsthand knowledge about what these events are like. I expect them to be quite similar to what our PTQ’s were like before the new system updates.

We do get perks, just for qualifying. Take a look.

Liliana Promo

Snagging a Liliana of the Veil promo foil is a great boon for your accomplishment of qualifying for this event. Additionally, you will get a promotional deck box, which certainly isn’t as exciting as a valuable foil that sees tons of play in Modern, but it is a nice bonus.

Once you are at this event, if there are 129 more players, you only need to Top 8, but if there are 128 or fewer players, you need to win a round in the Top 8 to make it to the Top 4. Either way, these events will give out four to eight Pro Tour invites instead of just one. As a consolation prize, if you don’t win that round in the Top 8 in one of the smaller events, you are qualified for the next regional PTQ.

Making arrangements to go to one of these events will probably be similar to that of a Grand Prix. Most likely, you won’t have a Regional PTQ close to you but there will be one within driving distance. That’s the plan anyway, we will see if that ends up being the case or not. For me, there are two within driving distance and a total of 13 in the US that the players here could fly to. The rest of the world only gets 18 events, so if you are outside of the US, it may be harder to compete in one of these events.

I was quite curious about what attendance would be like at these events. Certainly they will be difficult because every player there will be highly skilled, but how many players should we expect? If this reddit article proves to be correct, then we are looking at events as small as 25 players up to ones with a whopping 240! Average attendance seems to be in the 64-player range though.

The numbers in the post are based on the number of qualifier tournaments that took place and don’t take into account the pros that have automatic invites to the events. Additionally, the numbers were calculated with the shortest distance in mind. My first thought was, should I book a flight to a location with a projected lower attendance? I’m sure I’m not the only one with that thought process either so we could see drastically different a turnout than what seems logical, because players are willing to fly in order to qualify for the Pro Tour.

I hope this write up was clear, concise, and provided some information you didn’t know about the new system. My goal was to be informative and help everyone understand what we are getting ourselves into. If I missed an aspect about the event, please share in the comments. Here is the link to the Wizards info page on RPTQ's.

Standard Thoughts

[cardimage cardname='Wingmate Roc'][cardimage cardname='Whisperwood Elemental']

This past weekend we saw a surge in price from Whisperwood Elemental due to competitive play. The card did see significantly more play in recent events, which makes this price bump based more on demand than hype. My thoughts the whole weekend surrounded comparing Whisperwood with Wingmate Roc though, rather than what his price was.

Most of the green decks can or do play white mana, so this dilemma of which card to play can come up in a variety of strategies. Because I’ve been playing Abzan Aggro lately, my question was which card is better for that deck, but I think this question should be asked of any deck that could play both cards. Let’s break it down.

When we look at the similarities of both cards we find that both have the potential to give you six power for five mana, but you have to complete some task in order to get your bonus power. In the case of Wingmate, attacking is the task, whereas with Whisperwood, merely surviving to the end step will get you your extra power. Both creatures provide virtual card advantage because they give you multiple creatures to work with. They are also both quite good against control decks for this reason.

With Wingmate, we have evasion. That is something that Whisperwood is definitely lacking. To make up for it, the elemental gives you his manifest ability every turn he sticks around. Additionally, with manifest you have the potential to hit a creature so you may be getting more than six power for your five-mana investment. In that case, Whisperwood is definitely better, but that doesn’t happen every time.

One part about Wingmate that I have found essential to my success is the lifegain ability. Many times it is correct to play your flyer before combat so you can trigger the lifegain ability on multiple creatures. This line of play can help you win many games.

I think the key difference between the two cards comes down to the fact that Wingmate will give you two creatures more often than Whisperwood. Combine that with the lifegain trigger and I think we have a winner in most cases. I have concluded that I would rather have my flyers in Abzan Aggro because they help you close out the game much better.

Whisperwood, on the other hand, I think is better suited to decks like Abzan Midrange that aim to control the game. In those decks, Whisperwood is much more powerful because they have set up a game state where generating a manifest creature every turn will put them so far ahead that their opponent will break under the pressure.

Both are great cards but consider which you should play and base that on your specific version of your deck.

Naya Tokens

Naya Tokens by Craig Wescoe

Creatures

4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Elvish Mystic
3 Fleecemane Lion
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Wingmate Roc

Spells

3 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
3 Xenagos, the Reveler
3 Dictate of Heliod
4 Lightning Strike

Lands

4 Battlefield Forge
3 Forest
2 Mana Confluence
1 Mountain
2 Plains
4 Temple of Plenty
4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Arbor Colossus
1 Dictate of Heliod
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
2 Erase
3 Glare of Heresy
2 Reclamation Sage
3 Valorous Stance
1 Xenagos, the Reveler

A new deck has been putting up results in the last couple of weeks, headed up by Craig Wescoe. Naya Tokens utilizes strong cards from multiple archetypes and glues them together with the all-or-nothing card Dictate of Heliod. Nothing in this deck is new. Literally every card in the list sees play in other decks, but the innovation is combining these cards together in this setup.

There is not only synergy in this deck but also lots of power as well. Every threat in this deck is a home run and there are no sub-optimal cards. I would say that’s the part I like most about this deck. Naya Tokens matches up well against the other midrange decks because it can attack from multiple angles and it does a great job overloading their removal. Prepare for this deck because you will start seeing it at your events. The Dictate seems like a great pickup and should probably increase a little in price due to the increase in play.

[cardimage cardname='Hero's Downfall']

The metagame has shifted. While many of the decks and cards are still the same, there are definitely more planeswalkers running around the metagame. With that, we should start seeing an increase in Hero's Downfall. I know it was one of the best cards in my deck last weekend and I wished I had the fourth one in my 75. Even if your opponent gets a token or some other effect, killing those planeswalkers immediately is paramount to your success. If you ignore the ‘walker and don’t win the game, then the advantage they gain will overpower you.

I’ve been seeing this happen a lot with Xenagos, the Reveler. Players are not taking that guy seriously and getting punished for it. He was run out of the metagame because of Mantis Rider and Lightning Strike. If your deck isn’t running both of those cards, you need to focus your fire on Xenagos to take him down immediately otherwise he will halt your assault. Short version: start playing more Downfalls.

Thanks for reading today. Good luck to all of you qualified for the first Regional PTQ!

Until next time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

It Was Called Extended

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The viability of Modern as a Pro Tour format has been a hot topic as of late. Discussions have been taking aspects of the format and labeling them as problems or features, without the answer being clear. Is it a problem that the format has tons of linear decks, or is it just the way that things were drawn up? Is it desirable to have a PT format that rotates with bannings more than new set releases? Are fetchland manabases ban-worthy?

There's a lot to discuss when we talk about the health of Modern. That said, everything I hear boils down to the same point for me.

Aren't you just asking them to move back to Extended?

You want a format that changes with new sets? We got it. One that isn't defined by a volatile ban-list? Got that, too. A format large enough for diversity but not over-saturated with different linear decks? You betcha!

Ultimately, Extended was done away with for a number of reasons. At the forefront of my mind was concern that Stoneforge Mystic and Batterskull would be dominant at the next Extended Pro Tour. A problem that could be fixed with an aggressive ban... Something that I remember them wanting to avoid... As somebody who fondly remembers Extended, this is a painful rationale to recall.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Batterskull

The other problem with Extended was that people only played it when they had to and excitement about the format was generally low. It seems to me that this is a branding issue. There's nothing inherently sweet about Modern. If anything, if you support Extended the way that Modern has been supported there's no reason in my mind that it couldn't be comparably popular.

Ultimately, we're probably just way too deep into Modern to go back. At least in the short term. There's no way we can go from $10 Modern Masters packs in 2015 to returning to Extended in 2016. The PR would be a nightmare. Just as a thought exercise though, does anybody agree that Extended was a healthier format than Modern that could have easily thrived with better PR? Or am I just being nostalgic?

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Posted in Free, ModernTagged , 32 Comments on It Was Called Extended

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What If Every Card Cost $1 Or Less?

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There was an interesting  discussion today on the main Magic subreddit that you may find interesting. The question posed by /u/mtgnew was "Would you still play Magic if every card would be $ max?" In the middle of a week where we've already seen people use the upcoming Tempest block MODO drafts and other events to resurrect the age-old gripe-fest about the Reserved List, I wasn't really prepared to see more misguided opinions about MTG Finance. Still, I slogged through it. There are some... interesting perspectives but there is a lot of the same whining, too. I was heartened that the farther I scrolled down, the more pragmatic and intelligent the opinions seemed, which just goes to show that redditors upvote what they wish were true and not what is. Still, for the most part, a lot of people seemed to recognize that the game being that affordable would kill it. If cards were so cheap, there would be no incentive for anyone to pull and mail singles to you. You would have to buy a lot of sealed product to ensure that you have enough copies of every card you wanted and you would be left with a LOT of leftover cards you didn't want. Either the pack price would price people out of the game, or Wizards would make boosters super cheap or sell cards as a full set, further reducing their incentive to keep making cards.

Do yourself a favor and read a few of the comments in the thread. It's interesting to see what people outside of finance think about the financial consequences of them getting their way and living in a fairy tale reality where cards are free and rain from the sky like Manna rocks from heaven. If nothing else, it will give you a nice chuckle.

So what do we think? Would the game survive if cards were $1 or less?

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Free17 Comments on What If Every Card Cost $1 Or Less?

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Uncharted Realms: A Tarkir of Dragons

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I know I link to Uncharted Realms often, but it's because it's an awesome series on the mothership that is always worth a read. And this week's is no different.

cardart_CrucibleoftheSpiritDragon

Sarkhan Vol was going home.

Yes. He felt it with utter certainty as he was whisked through the endless eternities. Whatever forces had thrust him back in time had now conspired to return him to—where was he going? The future? The present? The now? It did not matter what it was called, it was home.

Time passed him by, countless years, untold centuries; the history of Tarkir tore through him in the matter of a single heartbeat.

You can read the full article here. 

 

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, FreeLeave a Comment on Uncharted Realms: A Tarkir of Dragons

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Insider: I PTQQ’d with Chromanticore (And So Can You!)

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You put a lot of people on life tilt when you beat them with Chromanticore.

No matter how much or little success the card sees, people don't want to believe in the power of five-color cards. There's no historical precedent for them being good, even in eras where five-color decks were otherwise playable. If you close your mind to things that haven't happened before, you'll never innovate.

I hadn't played the deck enough previously to fully sing its praises, but I'm now ready to tell you that Chromanticore is the truth.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromanticore

I've played the Chromanticore Delve deck at four relevant events now. I took twelth at SCG Midwest Regionals, seventh in an SCG Super IQ, 9th at a PTQ, and on Sunday I won a PTQQ.

My combined record at these events is 21-6-3. If we counted those intentional draws as wins, that would be an 80% win rate. This is rather dishonest, but who uses statistics honestly in order to illustrate a point? Ignore the draws entirely and we're still at 77.8%. Also dishonest in its own right, but the deck's not good just because you can illustrate that it has won matches.

That's just a bad way to think about things.

[rant]

Another bad way to think about things is to simply trust a source rather than figure out if their reasoning is logical.

Among the people who have any respect for the Chromanticore deck, most do so because Tom Ross said so. In fact, I believe that the list that Tom Ross suggested in his article last week is in many ways worse than mine.

I like where his head is at with Siege Rhino, but the execution makes the manabase very awkward and the deck itself loses a bit of coherence. The list I posted here has better mana and, in my belief, is more strategically sound:

Chromanticore Delve

spells

4 Flamewake Phoenix
4 Satyr Wayfinder
4 Soulflayer
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Chromanticore
4 Sagu Mauler
4 Murderous Cut
4 Commune with the Gods
2 Tormenting Voice
2 Scout the Borders

lands

2 Forest
2 Mountain
2 Swamp
3 Bloodstained Mire
4 Mana Confluence
4 Opulent Palace
2 Sandsteppe Citadel
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

sideboard

4 Thoughtseize
4 Mistcutter Hydra
4 Drown in Sorrow
1 Debilitating Injury
2 Reclamation Sage

[/rant]

Changes Made for Last Weekend

Last Saturday was the last real PTQ here in Minnesota, and Sunday was the last PTQQ of the Vancouver season.

I had been playing the deck on MTGO ever since my strong showing at Regionals and the Super IQ the following day, and the only element  I wasn't liking in the maindeck was Flamewake Phoenix.

It's the only card in the deck that just kind of sucks when you cast it and the value of haste just isn't worth this downside. I'd say that the pressure it puts on the manabase is tough, but this isn't exactly true.

The deck really wants to be base black/green, and focusing on an ally-colored shard allows the deck to play two different kinds of fetchlands and therefor have more lands come into play untapped while taking minimal damage. The Mountains aren't great, but the cost is so low and Tormenting Voice really helps the deck smooth out its draws.

I had cut one Phoenix from the deck on MTGO for a Tasigur, the Golden Fang and it had been performing well. In fact, the only thing really stopping me from playing more was my disinterest in paying 9-10 tickets for more copies.

For the live events, I knew that the Phoenixes weren't hacking it and I elected to track down two Tasigurs and play a Rattleclaw Mystic over the third Phoenix that was still in the deck.

Long story short is that Rattleclaw, while having its benefits, is pretty underwhelming. I picked up a third Tasigur after going 5-2 at the PTQ and was committed to making the switch for Sunday's PTQQ.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasigur, the Golden Fang

My losses at the PTQ were to a very controlling version of Abzan and to the eventual winner Ken Bearl, who was on Jeskai Aggro.

The Jeskai matchup is pretty close and is winnable, but the control matchups and the slower Abzan decks are tough to beat.

I had Negate in my sideboard for the PTQ and it just didn't mesh with the deck. Not only is blue mana tough, but this deck often can't afford to leave up Negate mana while trying to be proactive.

Not to mention that Thoughtseize colds it pretty hard. I would also rather have something that I could find with Commune with the Gods for these matchups, something I could try to be proactive with. These decks are just way better at playing control in these matchups and I don't see being reactive as being very viable.

The two cards I decided to put to the test for the PTQQ were Phyrexian Revoker and Torrent Elemental. I liked the idea of using Revoker to turn off Planeswalkers and maybe even Perilous Vault.

The idea behind Torrent Elemental is that you can use it to delve and then gain value by playing it from exile. Its abilities aren't generally exciting against control decks, but it does come back if felled by Perilous Vault or Ugin, the Spirit Dragon.

Its other ability is much stronger against Abzan. If you have a bunch of Sagu Maulers and they have a bunch of Siege Rhinos, tapping all of their creatures can turn a board stall into a landslide victory.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Torrent Elemental

This is the list I registered for the PTQQ:

Chromanticore Delve

spells

3 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Satyr Wayfinder
4 Soulflayer
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Chromanticore
4 Sagu Mauler
4 Murderous Cut
4 Commune with the Gods
4 Tormenting Voice
1 Scout the Borders

lands

2 Forest
2 Mountain
2 Swamp
3 Bloodstained Mire
4 Mana Confluence
4 Opulent Palace
2 Sandsteppe Citadel
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

sideboard

4 Thoughtseize
4 Drown in Sorrow
1 Debilitating Injury
1 Reclamation Sage
2 Flamewake Phoenix
2 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Torrent Elemental

This is how the tournament went:

  • Round 1: 1-2 vs. Boros Aggro
  • Round 2: 2-0 vs. Mardu Aggro
  • Round 3: 2-0 vs. Abzan Aggro
  • Round 4: 2-0 vs. Gruul Aggro
  • Round 5: ID
  • Quarterfinals: 2-1 vs. Eric Hawkins on Sultai Control
  • Semifinals: 2-0 vs. Abzan Midrange
  • Finals: Split with Abzan Aggro

Was I favored in the finals? Sure. The payout was a box of Khans of Tarkir to first and $75 in store credit to second. There wasn't much on the line, and all I really wanted out of that pool was the invite, so I walked away with that and the $75 in store credit.

All of the decks I played against in this tournament are favorable matchups, with my loss actually being against my best matchup. In game two I kept a one-lander on the draw and never saw a second land, and in game three I drew 13 lands and just never really got anything going.

I had an early Tasigur in game three, but my opponent left in Chained to the Rocks and got me. I had boarded out some enablers for my Drown in Sorrows and I might have been better off just boarding out Tasigur. Lesson learned.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chained to the Rocks

Sultai Control is an interesting matchup, as they have similar tools to UB Control but generally draw fewer cards, making it easier to overpower them in many situations. There were a lot of points where I had to sweat through Dig Through Time and even an Interpret the Signs, scrying three to the bottom and revealing a land, but my deck wasn't completely on for this round either.

My match against Eric was extremely tough, with Eric being my pick for best Minnesota player who hadn't already won a PTQQ.

Game three was tense, and it came down to a situation where I had a Soulflayer imbued with the keywords of Sagu Mauler and Chromanticore against Eric's Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver on five loyalty with no creatures under it.

On my turn I chose to attack Eric down to 11, opting to hope that Ashiok missed and I could kill Eric before he could find an Ugin. On Erik's turn, he plussed Ashiok to seven and hit a Chromanticore.

Awkward.

At this point I would have to attack Ashiok for two turns to stop it from creating Chromanticore and trading with my Soulflayer. It was at this point where I drew the literal perfect Torrent Elemental. I attacked Eric down to 7, leaving him dead on board with my Elemental tapping down anything he could put in my way.

He then bricked, and I was elated.

Going Forward

The maindeck feels like it's exactly where it needs to be. If there's a lot of control in your metagame, I would switch the Murderous Cuts and the Thoughtseize around, but the current configuration gives the deck the best odds against what I have experienced to be the metagame at large.

You can balk at the Scout the Borders if you like, but I think that it just makes sense here and am not sold on putting anything else in that slot.

I fully intend to continue jamming this deck until rotation kills it, and I recommend picking it up if you want to attack Standard from a unique and powerful angle.

Just remember that sequencing is everything. Using fetchlands to thin your deck doesn't do much when you only draw one card a turn, but when you mill aggressively like this deck does, it can actually make a significant difference to crack your fetches early and often.

It's also important to leave up two black mana as your last mana in case your Communes and Tormenting Voices leave you wanting to make a Soulflayer.

Don't be afraid to make those guys without any keywords either. It's easy to get blinded by the potential upside, but a 4/4 for BB would be an absurd card to print, too.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulflayer

The Revokers probably aren't good and I'd cut them from the sideboard. I'd put in one copy of two of the following three cards:

I'm currently leaning against Phoenix, and Sage might just be unnecessary. The constellation deck isn't super-popular and they're really only beating you with Ugin anyway. Sage is good against Temur Ascendancy combo and random enchantment-creature-heavy decks, but, again, these aren't very popular.

Financial Implications

Previously, I was of the opinion that Tasigur was too steep to pick up in the short term. The truth is I can't imagine the card really going down before you'll need them to play if you grind PTQQs, IQs and the like.

I paid the gold price for my three, but I don't like it as a spec just yet. There will be a month when the card cools down and you'll be able to get them cheaper.

I like the idea of putting a second Torrent Elemental in the sideboard, but it strikes me as a horrible spec. Its applications are very fringe, and I can't imagine needing four in any deck ever. You might make some money if it drops in the $1 range, but it's pretty appropriately priced currently, if not slightly overpriced.

~

Chromanticore Delve is the deck I've had the most fun playing Standard with for as far back as I can remember. The deck does cool things, it's consistent, and it's powerful.

If you like putting non-believers on tilt, it's great for that, too. There's really something here for everybody.

If you are a believer yourself, then I wish you the very best of luck.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Thoughts on PPTQs at the Closing of the Vancouver Season

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Last Sunday was the end of the inaugural PPTQ season, which makes now a good time to talk about how people felt about our experiences with the new structure. I played in two such tournaments during the season, winning the second PPTQ that I entered on Sunday. My experiences with both events were pretty similar, but there are some trends that I noticed on social media regarding PPTQs that are worth discussing.

People Want More Formats

There was a lot of groaning when people saw how few Modern and Sealed PPTQs there were scheduled this season. These complaints were really felt as the season progressed. The few Modern and Sealed PPTQs had high attendance and some even had to turn people away. Additionally, this might not be the norm but the PPTQ that I played on Sunday had a scant 21 players, which was much lower than the 40-50 playing in the one I attended earlier in the season.

There are more Modern and Sealed events scheduled this season and it will be interesting to see if the demand stays high with a greater supply.

Inconsistent Prize Structures are Irksome

I work alternating weekends, which means that I go to the PPTQs that line up on my off-weekend when I don't have other plans. That said, if I did have free reign over which I could attend the SCG IQ infused PPTQs strike me as easily the highest value of any tournament that I've seen in the area. An Invitational Invite, an RPTQ invite and some cash in your pocket is about as much as you could reasonably expect from a small tournament, and I would definitely pass up softer tournaments to play for these prizes.

The PPTQ that I won promised a box of Khans to first with a low turnout or a box of Modern Masters to first if 50 people came out to play. The Modern Masters box definitely would have been sweet, but the turnout was much lower and the box of Khans is on the lower side of prizes that I've seen. Many postings that I've seen show stores offering $200 to first place, which is definitely nice considering that most people will need to book a hotel and possibly take a day or two off work in order to attend an RPTQ.

This is not to say that I have ill-feelings towards my personal experience- the prize was totally fair considering the entry fee for the tournament coupled with the low attendance- but a higher entry fee and cash prizes would be more attractive to me.

It would be nice to see prizes for PPTQs mandated by WotC going forward, but with the events happening so often at so many different locations I could see this being difficult to execute.

Verdict: I Like Them

Last weekend I took 9th at the last real PTQ in Minnesota on Saturday and then won the PPTQ on Sunday. The two results feel rather similar thinking about them now. It would be ideal from my perspective to just have real PTQs every weekend, but this is just not possible.

What I think is great about the PPTQ structure is that as somebody who doesn't care about FNM and who isn't thrilled about spending his entire weekend on the road just to PTQ, I still get the opportunity to play for compelling stakes close to home every weekend that I'm free to battle. This is really awesome, and ultimately outweighs any complaints that I have about PPTQs.

What has your experience been with PPTQs? Love them? Hate them? Chime in in the comments!

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Posted in Free, PTQ6 Comments on Thoughts on PPTQs at the Closing of the Vancouver Season

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Crushing the Dream of Working at Wizards of the Coast

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Most Magic players have entertained the idea of working at Wizards of the Coast at one point or another. I mean, making a career of designing one of greatest games ever created? Who wouldn't consider such a thing to be insanely attractive? (Terrorists: that's who.)

That's why it makes me sad to report that working at Wizards may not be all sunshine and roses. I mean, this may not be enough to completely kill your desire to make Magic cards, but Glassdoor—a site where employees and former employees anonymously review their employers—indicates that WOTC is perhaps not the greatest place to work.

wotcglassdoor

Oof, only 2.5 stars? That's a failing grade in schools that don't coddle their students. Let's see what employees have had to say about different aspects of working at the company (all quotes are SIC).

Technology/IT

As a disappointed MTGO player (is there any other kind?), one thing that interests me most is what internal employees have to say about the technology utilized and marketed by the company.

IT is old and out of date.

Upper IT leadership is lost and threatened by new ideas and talent. They make sure those people are diminished until they leave or find a way to get rid of them.

The Web Publishing team is a complete disaster, failing to deliver anything of significance technologically and the latest project was a colossal failure by any measure.

Magic Online Business team leadership is unqualified

Architecture actively works to keep projects from being successful. Their assumptions are not based on fact, rather on outdated poorly understood interpretation of how modern technology works.

Completely incompetent at implementing any kind of digital media. I was tossed into a web design team even though I had no experience in and was not hired for coding. Had to deal with contracted web app companies that could not care less. I was placed almost exclusively in teams that had little to do with the job I'd been hired to perform.

If you're a software developer, stay far away. Wizards is not a software company, and its software projects are buggy, slow, bloated, and poorly thought-out. Random changes will come down from marketing or management. Key technical decisions will be made by non-technical staff. You will work in Waterfall, whether you like it or not. You will be underpaid (Wizards pays below market for most positions), and blamed for the failures of the products you work on.

People in the Technology org are making their entire careers on software that is over budget and behind schedule.

Technology teams frequently underdeliver but are chronically understaffed and can't source talent because salaries are so far below market.

Lack of Innovation/Diversity

As a creative type, I like to think working at Wizards would give me the opportunity to innovate and do something new. But word is that this isn't really looked kindly upon at WOTC.

2 trick pony. Magic and D&D. If it isn't named that it's not going to fly. Don't get your hopes up about a new game you made. Even if they like it, and say they want to do it, it won't get published. But they will own your idea from then on.

Zero commitment to innovate and "risk" upsetting Magic. Any time someone questions ANYTHING, rather than owning mistakes and committing to get better as a group, people retreat to defensive positions and lash out, especially the bottom of the barrel people who are lucky to have jobs at all - the rejects from other companies that will actually take the well-below-market salaries WotC pays.

In my experience, if you are honest, work hard and come up with innovation ideas, you are punished with more work, leaders stealing your ideas, and moved to positions where you're no longer doing what you were hired to do.

Wizards seems to want only want employees who think and look like them; diversity is a talking point not part of Wizards culture.

If you want to do anything new and innovative, stay away (unless you can get into Magic R&D - see above). Innovation is unwelcome at Wizards. Between the politics, cost-cutting, and top-down direction, new ideas are seen as actively bad, and promoting them can severely limit your career.

New ideas are not encouraged. For a company that lives and dies by its IPs, they are remarkably resistant towards encouraging innovation or new products.

Invisible management who have their heads in the sand and are afraid to innovate or take risks. Management's attitude is to coast and just not mess a good thing up.

If you have a will or wanting to create or work on something big, this isn't the place. The business doesn't act like it wants to succeed and won't even properly fund it's biggest money makers.

Opportunities for creative projects on the side are stymied by a draconian non-compete policy.

We kill a lot of good game ideas before they are able to reach the market. It makes me wonder what might have been.

Advancement in the Company

If you're an overachiever type, Wizards may not be the place for you.

Very hard to advance from one position to the next. Once you are in a particular role, you may need to leave the company to try new opportunities.

Very low chance to advance, you will be told you can, but what you need to do changes all the time so you will not succeed at it.

No upward mobility. But if you're basing your career at this company, you've got bigger problems.

Hardworking, smart, talented people move on to other companies, leaving behind the people who either can’t get a job anywhere else or are too lazy or depressed to try. There are a few exceptions, of course, but HR will see to it that they don’t stay around too long. They’ll have them apply for “consideration” of a title change or pay increase, withholding all assistance during that process – even for individuals worth retaining – ensuring that the success rate stays somewhere below 3%.

Career development is extremely difficult

People who do less work but more talk usually get promoted. That's because there's no accountability or task monitoring. If you're a PM who does nothing, this is a job for you!

Slow/ no promotion track.

No room for growth without being part of an executive manager's inner circle.

Lack of career advancement opportunities, favoritism from senior management towards "friends" when promoting employees, the cultural environment is that of gamers so if you aren't a herd core gamer you may find it difficult to breach the political favoritism entrenched within the company.

There is no room for advancement. Someone has to retire or die before you get promoted above manager, and even then they will probably bring in someone from outside.

Compensation

Do you like to be paid a fair market rate for your work? Wizards employees suggest going elsewhere may be your best bet:

Health benefits are awful, with massive out-of-pocket costs

Wages are some of the worst in the industry. What this means in real life is that often the first, second, and third choices for Director or upper level management positions walk away from the job. The individual hired often works for 35-40% below the Seattle market, has little actual experience in the gaming industry or in any complex IT environment, and often lacks the management or personnel skills needed to address the most egregious issues.

Stagnant salaray - raises or increases in salary very very rare.

compensation is very east coast and way below industry standards

Pay scale is well below market.

Lower-than-market salaries often makes this place a stepping stone to other companies that care more about their talent.

Financial success not shared with rank-and-file employees or reflected in office environment, which is tightly packed, "Office Space" style cubicles; Yearly raises are nearly nonexistent

Salaries are generally 20% lower than at comparable companies and opportunities for advancement are sporadic.

Horrible raises and have lower than average salaries.

The salaries are too low for the people they need.

Management

I've had great jobs ruined by horrible bosses and horrible jobs made downright pleasant by great bosses. What is the Wizards company culture like?

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more poorly managed company

Better make friends. Managers and above will become petty and retaliatory if they don't like you

Management ready to throw anyone under the bus to avoid their own inability to motivate and be a part of the team.

R&D designs great paper Magic, but is not poised with the talent to design in the digital world.

Poor management.

By the time I left, it appeared that anyone who was brave enough to challenge the CEO and was willing to take a stand for their employees had been replaced by people who must be terrified of losing their jobs. That's the only way I can explain how most of the employees can be treated so poorly by their Senior leaders.

Too many chiefs, not enough Indians.

Some senior management are difficult to work for and some key teams are understaffed and under-resourced.

Questioning a supervisor in any capacity isn't welcomed, regardless of whether you end up being correct and you'll likely be more penalized for not being 'in line' than your supervisor will be for being wrong.

Anyone above you in the hierarchy knows how to maneuver through corporate politics, appeasing those above and encouraging those below, while letting blame slip past when it comes time to fire someone. I saw people maneuvered into positions of blame to excuse their firings more than once, and one truly awful case of firing someone for false cause.

There's not a manager there who knows what they're doing

More managers than actual individual contributors. This sounds cynical. This is true, however.

Poor managers drive away talented individuals, and don't recognize good or hard work. Incompetency is often rewarded with promotion.

Constant poor decisions from upper management will drive you insane.

Middle Management can sometimes be brought in with little understanding about the products they work on and a lack of desire to learn.

There are more managers and bosses than actual workers, which causes for the little people (workers) to be buried in work and are taken for granted.

Epic Rants

Finally, here is what I found to be the most telling review.

If you want a job where you don’t have to work that lets you spend most of the day on Facebook, Reddit or whatever website you want, look no further. Your performance will be measured against a handful of silly goals that you set for yourself. Wizards is ideal for people who just want to stall out career-wise. There is no reward for hard work, so don’t bother trying to get your job satisfaction out of making meaningful contributions. Instead, take advantage of the perks you’ll find at Wizards that you won’t find at any other employer on the planet that actually makes money: take two- to three-hour lunches, two to three times a week
 conduct all of your personal business during working hours
 “work” from home to care for a sick child
 book a conference room on the third floor for a few hours and catch up on Netflix
 find a way to use FMLA and take a couple of months off of work entirely
 set up a MTGO trading side job to make money from stuff you never paid for!

The good news is that you’ll never be fired because Hasbro’s HR and risk management staff is so afraid of getting sued for wrongful termination that you’d basically have to be caught stealing Magic cards to get fired, and not know the right people who can help you cover up a situation like that.

This was listed under "pros."

baneofprogress

I don't know if seeing all of this would make me turn down an opportunity to work at Wizards if such a thing ever came up (and because I write articles like this, it probably won't). I admit, I cherry-picked the bad stuff here, and there were plenty of good comments (although, notably, there were no overwhelmingly good comments. As a rule, employees listed more cons than pros in their reviews). Making Magic cards and being part of a growing company is a huge benefit, and let's be honest: most jobs have aspects you don't like. Did you really expect Wizards to be any different?

Still, if you've dreamed your whole life to work for this company and see reviews like this, it's got to sting a little bit. What do you find most interesting about these employee comments?

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Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

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Posted in Free16 Comments on Crushing the Dream of Working at Wizards of the Coast

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Insider: MTGO Market Report for February 25th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Edit: Sorry for the delay on posting this article to the Main Page; there was a mixup on the WordPress side of things. -Matt

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of February 22nd, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively. Note that it usually takes about a month after a set releases on MTGO for it be available for redemption, so expect FRF to be redeemable in the first week of March.

Overall, it is very evident in the Weekly Change values for MTGO that prices have started to rebound from the lows reached during FRF release events. Prices are still depressed relative to last month though, indicating there is still potential for higher prices over the coming weeks as the MTGO economy normalizes after the recent conclusion of release events.

Feb25

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

A special mention is due for M14 this week. It looks like it has finally bottomed in MTGO and it has one of the best ratios between digital and paper set prices, which suggests this set is firmly in ‘good value’ territory. Keep an eye on Archangel of Thune, Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze for cards that carry a low price, relative to their potential in Modern.

Interest in that format will be continue to increase as we approach the Spring and MM2, so this bodes well for all redeemable, online sets that contain Modern playable cards.

The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains positive. Both sets continue to see week-over-week price increases in paper, while the digital version of RTR has also turned upward. This week, GTC on MTGO was flat to negative.

Theros Block and M15

The THS block sets have all rebounded in recent weeks from their bottom during FRF release events, and are also seeing modest price gains in paper. They are not likely to revisit their Fall price peaks, but the coming weeks will be a good time to unwind any lingering positions in these sets.

A recent buy recommendation from THS was Xenagos, the Reveler. The red-green planeswalker has seen a recent bump in price due to the resurgence of red-green strategies in Standard, but they don’t appear to be Tier 1. It’s possible that a new iteration pushes them into a more dominant position in Standard, but more likely it will be taken up only by big mana enthusiasts. It’s time to consider selling Xenagos, though there will be another window coming up shortly where the Standard metagame will be shaken up by DTK.

It’s not clear what could push this deck over the top in terms of power level, but pay attention to the upcoming spoilers and consider the potential impact on this, not yet ready for prime time, strategy.

A second recent recommendation was Keranos, God of Storms from JOU. This card is still in relatively short supply and has seen a firm price above 10 tix in recent weeks. With Twin strategies settled into the Tier 1 of Modern decks, expect this card to appreciate in price leading up to the Modern MOCS preliminaries and championships. That might not even be the short-term peak for this card, if interest in Modern builds out to the release of MM2. This card is firm ‘hold’ at the moment, with no real risk of decline in the coming weeks.

Relative to paper prices, M15 has some of the highest online prices for a large, redeemable set. There’s just very little upside in this set at current prices, though Chandra, Pyromaster has fallen into a potentially attractive price range. If this card falls further to about 5 or 6 tix, it would be correct to start accumulating.

Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged

It might be unnecessary to point this out, but the Modern staple Siege Rhino is currently priced at around 2 tix. With KTK only weeks away from not being actively drafted, the window to pick this card up at a reasonable price is closing. Continue to buy these with an eye to holding them for at least the medium term. This is a low-risk position to take with a fairly decent upside. Landing in the 4 to 6 tix range by February of 2016 is not unreasonable.

Prices for individual cards from FRF are seeing some back and forth as the Standard metagame resolves itself around the new set. Despite the slight bump in the set price in the past week, it’s only a matter of time before a downward trend reestablishes itself. Look for FRF to fall into the 50 to 65 tix range by July, which is roughly a 30-45% downside from current prices.

Consider taking any short-term profits from this set off the table sooner rather than later. Small sets have a high hurdle to clear to get any support from redemption and FRF will not be exceptional in that regard.

Modern

The Top 8 of past weekend’s Grand Prix Vancouver again reflected a fairly diverse Modern format at high level events. Similarly to PT Fate Reforged, a Splinter Twin deck took the trophy home and Amulet Combo decks made a strong impression by putting two copies into the Top 8. This result doesn’t have a lot of financial implications, just a message to ‘stay the course’ as we are still in the middle of a Modern MOCS season.

Vintage and Legacy

The just announced release of Tempest Remastered will no doubt bring a significant increase in the number of Wastelands in the MTGO economy. This is good news for Legacy enthusiasts looking to get established on MTGO. Longer term, keep in mind that there is a Legacy MOCS at the end of 2015. Although still a ways off, compiling a short list of cards that are played in Legacy and currently value priced is a good idea.

Start with Gaea's Cradle and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. Both cards have seen significant price declines in the past year due to a promo printing and showing up in VMA, respectively. It’s not time to buy these to speculate on, but if you are thinking about getting into Legacy or Vintage on MTGO, they are probably not going to be getting much cheaper in the near term.

Tempest Remastered should be well received by players so it’s reasonable to expect to see a rebooted Masques block draft format down the road. This would finally bring down the price on Rishadan Port and other cards from these sets, further lowering the sticker shock of taking up Legacy on MTGO.

Pauper

Pauper has been revitalized with more Daily Events each week. The good news is that this change has been backed up by popular demand, which bodes well for the demand for Pauper cards. Several Pauper cards have been on the rise lately and although speculating on Pauper positions is a little trickier than speculating on cards from Modern and Standard, a few cards might be worth a shot.

A short list of potential targets include TSP Serrated Arrows, Moment's Peace, INV Exclude, Snap, VMA Cloud of Faeries, and Cuombajj Witches. Due to their playability and relative low prices compared to previous heights, Mental Note, ODY Innocent Blood and VIS Crypt Rat are Pauper-relevant cards with the most potential from our perspective.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Pauper

Mental Note <0.5 Tix
ODY Innocent Blood
VIS Crypt Rats

Considering their previous heights, these three cards have the most potential for good returns. The introduction of delve is making Mental Note a very attractive target with no previous history of Pauper playability. Being printed in Judgment means the supply for Mental Note is extremely limited and a price of several Tix is reasonable to expect for this card.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

MMA Slaughter Pact - The black pact has nicely bounced back this past weekend despite being played mostly as a one-of in Modern deck lists. Its price having basically doubled since we recommended buying it, it’s a good opportunity to sell this position now.

Thrun, the Last Troll Thrun didn’t meet our expectation as a sideboard card for green decks in Modern. Its price is currently plummeting and outcomes are not favorable in a near future. With a potential reprint in MM2 on the horizon, it’s time to sell this one, even if it’s at a loss.

Green Is The Best Color in Magic

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Wizards of the Coast is going to try and force  green. I'll explain.

Starting with the English-language release of the upcoming Modern Masters expansion, Wizards is going to try a new, eco-friendly recyclable cardboard package for booster packs. The carton will be recyclable just like any other piece of cardboard and could serve as the test run for all future booster packaging. Chinese and Japanese releases of Modern Masters 2015 will have the standard booster pack wrapper as any other Magic set.

While showing the front of the packaging might give too much away, they shared the back of the carton with us.

ARC20150224_BoosterDeck

 

In addition to the ecological impact, this appears to have an additional advantage over the traditional wrapper - a perforated tear strip for ease of opening the pack. Traditional booster pack wrappers have a tendency to shred if not opened carefully, making a wad of pieces of mylar in the middle of the table that are tough to pick up. These new cardboard packs will likely make less of a mess although they won't wad up as easily. Most gaming stores don't have a separate container for recyclable material, so it's hard to know if this will have the intended effect, but good on Wizards for making the effort.

You can read the entire announcement here if you're interested.

What do we think of this move? Is this the packaging we want to see or is it a cheap publicity stunt? Leave it below.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Using Statistics to Guide Your Perspective

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Sometimes the game just screws you. You get very unlucky in an important match and feel completely out of control of your destiny. You have some right to complain, so long as you're not complaining to your opponent. Detracting from their win is just bad sportsmanship. We all get it, mulliganing a bunch and losing sucks. We don't need a refresher course in this when we're trying to be happy with our wins.

In particular, it's a big pet peeve of mine when people complain about things that aren't actually that unlikely. A standout in my mind is when people complain about not drawing a one-of in a match of limited. Often times these are the same people who whine when they lose to a bomb and now they're complaining that they didn't win even though they had a bomb in their deck...

This weekend an opponent of mine was talking about how much he had to mulligan on the day, and how it usually doesn't happen with his deck. I mused about how that sort of thing just happens statistically on a long enough timeline. He still seemed convinced that he had hit an unrealistic stroke of bad luck. This reminded me of an interesting example of how statistics work.

Let's say that we're flipping coins. The odds of not getting our desired result on a coin is 50%. The odds of not hitting our desired result three flips in a row is 12.5%. It's relatively unlikely to miss so consistently. However, let's say that we're looking for the odds of hitting the same result three times consecutively within a string of 10 flips. I'm no statistician, but here's how the odds of this occurrence were broken down for me:

Think about it this way: Every string of flips either ends in two matching flips or two non-matching flips.

Let a_n be the number of strings of n flips with no 3-peats that end in two matching flips
Let b_n be the number of strings of n flips with no 3-peats that end in non-two matching flips

We start with a_2 = 2 {HH and TT} and b_2 = 2 {HT and TH}

To find a_3 and b_3 we use the last values. from HH you can only go to HHT, but from HT you can go to HTT or HTH.
This leads to the following recurrence:

a_3 = b_2
b_3 = a_2 + b_2

or, more generically

a_n = b_(n-1)
b_n = a_(n-1) + b_(n-1)

If you want to do this math quickly, this is a 2x2 matrix with entries [0 1] and [1 1]

This gives us

a_3 = 2
b_3 = 4

(If you want to get fancy, this series is unique in that it will just give you consecutive fibonacci numbers*2)
and eventually gives us

a_10 = 68
b_10 = 110

So the number of 10-digit strings with no three-peat is 68+110 or 178.

There are 1024 possible strings so the odds are 178/1024, or 17.38%

If you isolate three flips your odds of such a string are a low 12.5%. If you look for the same result on three flips within a series of ten your odds of hitting such a string are a very likely 82.62%.

Obviously the odds of mulliganing with a given deck probably isn't 50%, but the point stands that unlikely things become very likely if you look at them in long strings as opposed to isolated incidents.

This is just how averages work. If your current experience isn't reflecting general probabilities, it's merely because anecdotes are terrible indicators of trends. Luck is probability taken personally, and the universe is completely indifferent to our complaints.

It's tough to take a bad beat in stride, but it's important to see the value in doing so. Not only does not understanding statistics just generally lead to feeling worse, but acting on these negative feelings can have a negative impact on your ability to network and to glean meaning from your experiences.

I realize the irony in complaining about complaining, but I still hope that this message reaches some people who will benefit from it.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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