| Quiet Speculation

Gray Areas: The Eidolon of the Great Revel Debate

Posted on February 11, 2015February 11, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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In a recent article by Chris VanMeter he mentioned that he played a match in which his opponent forgot a lot of Eidolon of the Great Revel triggers. During the match, Chris would remind his opponent when the Eidolon was supposed to damage the opponent but would let the opponent forget when the Eidolon was supposed to damage Chris. This excerpt upset some people.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eidolon of the Great Revel

The most important aspect of the ensuing debate is that Chris's actions were completely within the context of the rules. As a matter of fact, the update that made this so was relatively recent, as there was a time not long ago when you and your opponent were both responsible for remembering any and all triggers. Now you only need to remember your own and your opponent will likely only remind you if its beneficial to them.

This is literally the intention of the rules update. It stops opponents from being penalized when you forget your triggers, as previously both players would be charged with failing to maintain game state. There is, of course, some gamesmanship that comes with this, but many would contend that remembering your triggers is part of learning how your deck works.

Still, some players consider this behavior unsportsmanlike. And maybe they're right, but then I wonder why their complaint is with Chris and not with the people who make the rules.

I compare this to the "invisible trigger" rule update with regard to exalted and prowess. Technically, you don't need to announced a change in a creature's power and toughness until it becomes relevant to the game state. Personally, I announce all of these triggers as they happen. Largely this is to cover myself so that I can point to the fact that I announced my triggers earlier if a discrepancy occurs later, but even still you'll rarely find me not announcing some triggers even though I don't have to.

That said, I never go after the people who don't announce these triggers. Even though I think that the rule is rather bad and is largely just a "gotcha!", it's not the fault of the players that the rules might need revision.

Personally I like not having to remember all of my opponent's triggers. It is important to remember that there are some things that your opponent might forget that you are obligated to remind them of. For example, "draw a card" either as part of the resolution of a spell or for the beginning of a player's turn is not a trigger, it is a mandatory action.

You still need to help your opponent remember these things and you are liable for doing so. Scrying as resolution of a spell is the same thing. The trigger rule's spirit isn't just to make your opponent forget everything, it's to make you liable for as few of your opponent's actions as possible, and it would be unreasonable to just counter opponent's spells and actions because they forget.

So what do you think? Do you think we should go back to reminding our opponents of all of their triggers, or is the current rule fine? Under the current rule, is it shady to not remind opponents of triggers?

Insider: MTGO Market Report for February 11th

Posted on February 11, 2015January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of February 9^th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively. Note that it usually takes about a month after a set releases on MTGO for it be available for redemption, so expect FRF to be redeemable in the first week of March.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains unchanged, with future price gains anticipated as interest in Modern rises in advance of Modern Masters 2015. The price on both of these sets has fallen in the past week, but it’s important to note that this generally corresponds with falling prices on rares, not on mythic rares.

For specific cards from RTR and GTC, both Sphinx's Revelation and Domri Rade were no-shows in the new Modern metagame on display at Pro Tour Fate Reforged. This dampens the outlook on these cards, but it’s not time to consider selling.

In paper, both RTR and GTC are in the early stages of an uptrend, while on MTGO, prices are depressed as FRF release events continue, thus generating a high demand for tix. Although these cards are no longer considered a good speculative buy, they are a hold. Prices will recover after release events wind down, and beyond that the outlook includes interest in Modern generated by the release of MM2.

Voice of Resurgence has rebounded into the 17-20 tix range as a result of the Abzan-heavy metagame of PT FRF. In the pricing table above DGM does not show a corresponding move, which highlights the problem of using Supernova prices.

Their pricing algorithm moves slowly on singles. With large sets, when there are many prices moving, a large price change can get washed out by lots of smaller price changes. However, in the case of a small set like DGM, the correct set price depends on the correct price of Voice of Resurgence. Understanding the quality and nature of the underlying data is important when doing any analysis, so this is an example of a known data quality issue that is highlighted here for educational purposes.

M14 continues to slide in price and this set is definitely approaching ‘good value’ territory as it gets closer to its post-rotation low from October. But unfortunately this set has also been falling in price in paper meaning that price support from redemption is not yet ready to kick in. Until the paper price stabilizes, it’s not time to consider buying cards this set.

Theros Block & M15

THS is down over 20% in the last month and 10% in the last week. The drops by BNG and JOU are similar if not slightly bigger. All three of these sets look like they are due for a rebound in the coming weeks and so selectively buying Standard staples is the strategy to consider.

From THS, consider Elspeth, Sun's Champion. One month ago, this card was around 21 tix. Currently priced in the 12-13 tix range, it’s still one of the most played planeswalkers in Standard.

From BNG, two key cards of the U/W Heroic deck--Temple of Enlightenment and Hero of Iroas--have dropped by more 50% during FRF release events. While the hero has already rebounded by about 1 tix the blue-white temple has remained mostly flat in the 4-tix range. With potential for broader application, the temple is certainly a great position to consider now.

With less obvious upside but at very low prices now compared to their recent heights, Eidolon of Countless Battles, Herald of Torment and Spirit of the Labyrinth are positions to keep an eye on. Courser of Kruphix didn’t appear in many Junk/Jund Modern deck lists, so with only Standard to support its price, a rebound is not necessarily to be expected from this centaur.

Another card that has dropped in the last month is Pharika, God of Affliction from JOU. This card found the 5 tix price level to be pretty reasonable back in November, before taking off and peaking at around 18 tix at the end of December. Now it’s back down to around 5 tix again so keep this one in mind when you are looking for speculative targets over the next few weeks.

Goblin Rabblemaster was the breakout rare from M15 and it looks like it will continue to be a force in Standard. However, this card has already moved up about 30% in the past week, going from 12 tix to around 16 tix. So it looks like the market has already moved on this one, making this a tad risky.

Khans of Tarkir & Fate Reforged

KTK looks like it’s about as cheap as it’s going to get before it stops being drafted. There are precisely zero cards priced over 10 tix, an unheard of situation for a set currently in Standard. Starting to accumulate the playable mythic rares from this set is a prudent move. Once DTK is released, there will be upward pricing pressure on all KTK cards as the supply from drafters slows down. Keep this in mind over the next six weeks.

Release events for FRF continue, but the results from the recent Pro Tour make it look like this set is a Modern bust. Monastery Mentor was a no-show in D.C., and so it’s probably going to keep falling in price. Outside of innovative new Standard decks that put a new card in the spotlight, the pricing outlook for all FRF cards is lower. Expect prices on this set to continue to fall over the coming weeks.

Modern

Pro Tour Fate Reforged is over and with it the bases of a new Modern format have been set. Along with the decks we expected to see at this Pro Tour (namely Splinter Twin, Abzan, and Affinity), Burn, Infect and Amulet Combo surprised by their impressive finish. Disappointing results included Storm, R/G Tron and UWR Midrange/Control.

It is mostly too late to acquire cards at this point for speculation, but it is worth holding onto all the cards that shined at this PT for a couple more weeks. Let’s break it down.

Although no Infect deck made it to the Top 8, it's performance was absolutely unexpected. It was the second most represented deck in the Top 16 (three players). Relatively cheap, fast and straightforward to play, expect to see more of these on MTGO this month. After a fleeting bump--10 Tix to 14 Tix to 10 Tix from Friday to Sunday--Inkmoth Nexus is likely to keep climbing as players will try to poison their opponents online.

Burn decks have always been a part of the metagame on MTGO, probably more so than in paper Magic. Now, they will be an even stronger reason to bring Burn to the (digital) table. The deck clearly showed this past weekend it could battle against anything. Burn decks were the second most represented decks on Day 1 and put five players in the Top 16, more than any other decks. All cards from this deck, uncommons, rares and lands, should keep rising from now until the end of the MOCS season in March.

Splinter Twin decks were expected to be a legitimate contender in this new Modern environment. With two slots in the Top 8 including the winner, Splinter Twin is here to stay. The main difference in this 2015 version of U/R Splinter Twin is that Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker seems to have been pushed out.

Abzan decks were by far the most represented decks of the tournament in D.C.—a ton in Day 1, not as much in the Top 16. The usual suspects were almost all here--Liliana of the Veil, Tarmogoyf, Scavenging Ooze, Inquisition of Kozilek and Abrupt Decay are here to stay.

Lingering Souls and Noble Hierarch also benefited from the exposure to this deck. The white sorcery is finally taking off and the mana dork will probably be back to 40 tix soon.

The big loser in Abzan is Dark Confidant. With the addition of higher casting-cost cards including Tasigur, the Golden Fang, losing too much life to Bob in this heavy Burn environment is not acceptable. With a potential reprint in MM2 it may be time to sell Dark Confidant before a bigger dip in the coming months.

Primeval Titan, Azusa, Lost but Seeking, Amulet of Vigor, Hive Mind, Summoner's Pact and Pact of Negation nicely spiked after this weekend. As the deck is not for everyone, the increases in price are probably going to be limited. Selling these cards soon is probably a good option as the hype winds down and players realize this is a difficult deck to play well.

One parameter to keep in mind is that the Modern metagame often evolves in different directions in paper and on MTGO. Tier 2 or 3 decks that were not seen at the PT, such as Living End, Bogles, Soul Sisters and blue-based Tron decks may still be played online during the MOCS season. The Modern format will adapt to the metagame defined at Pro Tour Fate Reforged. With a few exceptions discussed earlier, all cards are worth keeping for now, at least until the speculative storm triggered by the PT has passed.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

~~Elspeth, Sun's Champion~~

Temple of Enlightenment

Both of these cards are still strong Standard contenders and should rise again after the dip generated by FRF release events.

Edit: Elspeth is set to be released in paper in the Elspeth/Kiora duel deck at the end of the month. Even though the duel deck will not be released on MTGO, this will put a damper on this spec as the lower paper price will translate to a lower price on mtgo. Previously the upside on this card was in the 5-8 tix range, with little downside. Now, I think the upside is smaller, in the 3-5 tix range, but with more downside, so I am removing it from the Targeted Buy list. - Matt

Modern

Thundermaw Hellkite

This dragon doesn’t really have a home in the new Modern yet but it is a very fine answer to Lingering Souls out of the popular Abzan decks. The Hellkite is also at its lowest price since October 2012.

Legacy

Deathrite Shaman

This card is close to it’s all time bottom. Legacy is usually penciled in for at least one MOCS event a year, and it’s a format that sees periodic interest, particularly in the late summer.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Modern

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

Insider: The Funnest Deck in Standard – Updates to Chromanticore Delve

Posted on February 11, 2015January 17, 2022 by Ryan Overturf

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After trading all of our non-mana resources in the early game, my opponent and I found ourselves in a top-deck war.

My opponent drew a Siege Rhino, knocking me to a precarious four life. I one-upped him by top-decking a Sagu Mauler.

On his next turn, all he could do was pass. I drew a Sylvan Caryatid and played it as my seventh mana source, before my opponent drew and ran his Rhino into my Mauler, telegraphing his would-be lethal Wingmate Roc.

I knocked on my deck and called for my one time. I was rewarded with a Chromanticore to bestow onto my Sagu Mauler, stealing the game.

I don't know if I was more satisfied with the 3-0 record that I was sitting on, or the look on my opponent's face.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromanticore

I didn't end up in the Top 8 of Midwest Regionals with my Chromanticore brew, but a 7-2 record was good for 12th place. For reference, this is the list that I ended up registering:

Chromanticore Delve

spells

4 Flamewake Phoenix

4 Satyr Wayfinder

4 Soulflayer

4 Sylvan Caryatid

4 Chromanticore

4 Sagu Mauler

4 Murderous Cut

4 Commune with the Gods

2 Tormenting Voice

2 Scout the Borders

lands

2 Forest

2 Mountain

2 Swamp

3 Bloodstained Mire

4 Mana Confluence

4 Opulent Palace

2 Sandsteppe Citadel

4 Wooded Foothills

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

sideboard

4 Thoughtseize

4 Mistcutter Hydra

4 Drown in Sorrow

1 Debilitating Injury

2 Reclamation Sage

Scout the Borders was a card that I played a little in older Nemesis of Mortals decks, and one that I thought might play better than the decidedly mediocre Tormenting Voice. It, like the card that it took the two slots from, was largely unspectacular, but fine.

My tournament went like this:

Round 1: 2-0 vs. Boros Aggressive Midrange
Round 2: 2-0 vs. Temur Aggressive Midrange
Round 3: 2-1 vs. Abzan Aggressive Midrange
Round 4: 0-2 vs. Jeskai Tokens
Round 5: 2-0 vs. Boros Aggressive Midrange
Round 6: 0-2 vs. Dimir Control
Round 7: 2-1 vs. Abzan Controlling Midrange
Round 8: 2-1 vs. Black Devotion
Round 9: 2-0 vs. Gruul Aggressive Midrange

I was very happy with the deck all day, with my two losses coming from what felt like pretty poor draws.

The control matchup is admittedly rough, but the aggressive decks felt like byes and the midrange decks felt reasonably favorable. The aggressive decks can't deal with Chromanticore, or, more importantly, a Soulflayer with Chromanticore's abilities and hexproof.

Against midrange decks, Sagu Mauler is just bigger than everything. You have to watch out for Siege Rhino picking up +1/+1 counters from Abzan Charm, but knowing that that's an option makes your lines of play pretty clear.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sagu Mauler

The one element of the deck that I found somewhat disappointing was Flamewake Phoenix.

I spent the night after Regionals trying to figure out something else the deck could play. The reason that Phoenix makes sense here is that the mana for this deck is only good because you're able to focus on Jund colors, splashing white and blue.

Ally color pairs give you two fetchlands, and Jund is the only ally pair with green and black, which are ultimately your actual base colors. This is why you only see Jund colored cards on the sideboard.

Once you have your fetchlands, your red mana is relatively abundant and you really ought to take advantage of it. Tormenting Voice, while not spectacular, either adds a keyword to your graveyard that you were missing or smooths out an otherwise rough draw.

I ultimately came to the conclusion that I would board Phoenix out a lot but am still happy to have it for resilient haste threats against controlling decks.

I was planning on aggressively couching and watching Pro Tour coverage on Sunday, but I had so much fun playing this deck that I had to run it back for an SCG Super IQ. I made some very minor changes to the deck:

Maindeck Out:

Maindeck In:

Sideboard Out:

Sideboard In:

This tournament was much smaller, and naturally went much better. This is how things went:

Round 1: 2-1 vs. WBRG Midrange (Mardu-Abzan? Marzipan?)
Round 2: 2-1 vs. Jeskai Tokens
Round 3: 2-1 vs. Temur Ascendancy Combo
Round 4: ID
Round 5: ID
Quarterfinals: 1-2 vs. Monored Aggro

Two things about these results:

Playing for position in Round 5 was safe and completely right, but I was feeling a little burned out.
In the quarterfinals, I made several poor decisions and the match could've been winnable. Alas, life goes on.

With a 10-3-2 record on the weekend, I feel very good about the deck. It's also just completely sweet, and people were very excited to talk to me about my list. I was very excited to oblige.

It's also noteworthy that people will make mistakes both playing and sideboarding against this deck, so long as it's a relatively unknown quantity.

A cool trick is to morph your Sagu Mauler when you want your opponent to kill it in order to make a hexproof Soulflayer. The best part is that if they don't kill it, you get to flip a five mana 6/6.

I also had more than one opponent leave in too much spot removal against me, leaving them with a dead card in their hand against Sagu Maulers.

Going Forward

The red spells and the Scout the Borders are the slots I would consider changing in the future.

That said, I don't think the deck has much game against control decks without the Phoenix, and the Tormenting Voice definitely helps when you're flooded.

You do play 28 mana sources and four Satyr Wayfinder, after all. Scout the Borders should very likely be cut, and this deck would probably benefit from a Tasigur. The only reason I wasn't playing one is that all of my friends were playing theirs and his inflated price tag won't last forever. I can wait.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasigur, the Golden Fang

The sideboard might be exactly what it needs to be. The Thoughtseize and Drown in Sorrow are non-negotiable. Mistcutter Hydra is the best card I was able to come up with for fighting control, but that slot could need reexamining.

Reclamation Sage is excellent against Frontier Siege, Temur Ascendancy and random decks capitalizing on Theros block's enchantment theme, and I've been very happy with them.

Debilitating Injury was included because it can be found with Commune with the Gods and gives you an efficient removal spell to combat Goblin Rabblemaster and Heroic decks. It's not pretty, but it gets results.

The only other option I've come up with against control decks is to try some number of Torrent Elemental due to the ability to delve it away and the fact that Perilous Vault and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon both exile it. It looks really slow and easy to deal with, but I might give it a try.

Xenagos, the Reveler is another option that I could see trying, and I could more realistically see myself doing so for the Minnesota PTQ in two weeks.

Financial Relevance

There's not much to say about the specific cards in this deck that I didn't say last week. Soulflayer is very likely underpriced, but I don't know if there's going to be much to gain from a regular rare in a very good small set. Especially considering that the card gets a lot worse when Chromanticore rotates.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulflayer

One thing I will say is that if you want to play Standard straight through rotation without holding onto cards that are going to tank, this deck is a great option.

Sylvan Caryatid, Mana Confluence and Thoughtseize are the only Theros cards in the deck that are worth anything. Caryatid isn't worth a ton, but it will certainly lose value with rotation. Thoughtseize is certainly poised to increase in value in the longterm, and Mana Confluence will likely always be worth at least slightly more than City of Brass.

That's certainly a relevant decline, but other decks easily take more substantial hits, and on more cards.

I love this deck and I strongly recommend giving it a try. I fully intend to PTQ with it in two weeks and will likely go out of my way to hit even more Standard tournaments with it.

It's super fun and likely to be misunderstood by many players.

Just try saying it out loud, "Bestow Chromanticore on Sagu Mauler."

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

A tournament series comes to Europe

Posted on February 10, 2015 by Corbin Hosler

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The Star City Games Open series has been enormously successful in the United States. SCG events continue to grow and expand, and these days players have the option to go to one nearly every weekend if there isn't a Grand Prix in the area.

It's become a huge part of the competitive ecosystem here, and it seems Europe may not be far behind.

MagicCardMarket is akin to TCGPlayer in Europe, and the organization announced today plans to begin its own tournament circuit in Europe. This is a really cool development and great news for those not-quite-pros in Europe.

You can read the full announcement, complete with tournament details, here.

For Grinders Only: Modern is Not a Low-Maintenance Format

Posted on February 10, 2015February 10, 2015 by Danny Brown

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I was an early adopter of Modern. Too frugal to play Standard and too cheap to play Legacy, I found that Modern was perfect: a relatively inexpensive, non-rotating format with a large card pool and an unsolved metagame. This was a few years ago, when trading was still something people did, and I traded for every single Modern staple I could find.

What appealed to me most about the format was its pseudo-eternal nature. Given real-life issues like a job and a family, I liked the idea that I would be able to put together a deck, make periodic updates with new cards, and play in a few events a year with little to no last-minute card gathering.

Of course, that's not how the format has turned out. With frequent bannings and unbannings, your pet deck—especially if it's good—may not be a part of the format for long. As it turns out, Modern is not the low-maintenance format I had imagined, but one where one must constantly be on the lookout for the banhammer.

I'm not saying Modern is inherently bad, just that's it's a higher-upkeep format than it initially seemed. Really, it's more like Standard than Legacy, both in the way the games play out and in how the metagame shifts regularly. I wasn't even a Birthing Pod player (I did own the deck, but I had played it in an event exactly once), but the banning of Pod has hindered my enthusiasm about the format in a big way.

Of course, as a community, we did ask for this. Last summer, Wizards tried to cut the Modern pro tour and make the circuit Standard and Draft only, and the community was not happy. At the time, Tom LaPille explained/hinted/threatened:

When the community outrage led to the reinstatement of the Modern pro tour, we should have known that major shakeups were coming. Unfortunately, LaPille's tweets seem to indicate that Wizards believes one can't be both a fan of entertaining Modern pro tours and have a stable format you can play at your local shop—it's either one or the other, and the community demanded an entertaining pro tour. Bannings were inevitable.

I've been on the fence for a while, but with Modern Masters 2015 right around the corner, plus the mercurial nature of the format becoming more clear to me, I'm looking to trade or sell most of my Modern collection. The format is a great one for grinders. There's plenty of money to be made in it by speculators (if you're an Insider, you've been reading all about those opportunities lately). When we're not watching Abzan mirrors, it's pretty entertaining for spectators. But for someone who plays casually or infrequently, the cost of the format combined with its volatile nature means that it's just not worth it.

So yeah, even though I enjoyed watching the pro tour (although I do think the "health" and "diversity" of Modern was greatly overstated for the entire weekend), it also convinced me that Modern is just not the format for those in my situation. I was hoping for another Legacy, but I can see now that it's just another Extended.

Farewell, Modern. It was nice while it lasted.

Hasbro Q4 and FY ’14 Report

Posted on February 10, 2015 by Jason Alt

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The Q4 and FY'14 report is out. Most of it is very boring. I wouldn't recommend reading the entire thing, but if you really want to do that, the whole thing is at this link.

So if I'm advocating skipping reading the whole thing, what's the Tl;dr?

"2014 full-year net revenues increased 5% to $4.28 billion compared to 2013 revenues of $4.08 billion; Absent a negative $93.4 million impact of Foreign Exchange, 2014 net revenues grew 7%;"

And

"Games category revenues declined 4% for the year to $1.26 billion. Growth in Franchise Brands MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, as well as SIMON and THE GAME OF LIFE in 2014, was offset by declines in DUEL MASTERS, TWISTER and ANGRY BIRDS games."

So while not everything at Hasbro is going well, Magic is doing very well.

Essentially Magic is up 5% which is pretty fantastic. Other, poor decisions at Hasbro (Please, slap the "Angry Birds" logo on some more crap; that's still super relevant and awesome) are offsetting Magic's gains but Hasbro recognizes which of their properties are earners and they seem committed to the brand. That is until WotC wants some more money to hire better programmers for MODO.

The movie coming out and new, exciting products being launched and a growth in playership that exceeds the 5% growth in revenue are all positive signs. Magic is doing well and that seems unlikely to change.

Which Deck Do You Root for at the Modern Pro Tour?

Posted on February 10, 2015February 9, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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I often see Modern heralded as being a format known for its diversity. Combing over the successful decks from the Pro Tour tells a different story. As I paged through the decks I saw the following decks in large numbers:

Abzan
Infect
Splinter Twin
Burn
Amulet Bloom

I saw these decks in much smaller numbers:

Scapeshift
Affinity
Living End/ a couple different graveyard decks
Merfolk
Zoo
BW Tokens
GW Hatebears
UWx Control
Jund

This list is either exhaustive or very close form the decks that went 6-4 or better, which is a reasonable definition of what makes a deck a "real deck". Some of these decks only posted one or two copies with that record as well.

There's definitely some customization in the above decks, but I wouldn't say that Wilt-Leaf Liege Abzan is a sign of diversity, but rather of the opposite. After all, the deck was designed to beat the mirror.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wilt-Leaf Liege

People are wise to Amulet Bloom's ability to win as early as turn two and are embracing it as a pillar of the format. Splinter Twin, Scapeshift and Infect are all still playable as combo alternatives, but they don't quite have the same kick to them.

At any rate, the format's diversity isn't what's at question today. What I want to know is whether you can watch Modern Pro Tour coverage without worrying about whether or not your favorite deck will be subject to the next ban. If you like the Amulet deck, can you reasonably keep playing it after it saw so much success at the Pro Tour? It is a turn two/three combo deck after all. And if you're a Splinter Twin fan, were you rooting for or against it in the finals? Does having two copies of the deck in the Top 8 including the winner fill you with joy or worry?

It's too early to call whether Modern is in a healthy place or not at this point, though from my perspective the Pro Tour Top 8 was dramatically more boring than the Top 8 of Grand Prix Omaha. The question stands though, when you like a deck in Modern do you root for or against it at the Pro level?

Insider: Modern Masters 2015 Mental Exercises, Part 2

Posted on February 10, 2015January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Exasperators!

Anyone else think a lot of buying activity in MTG finance lately is fueled by delusion?

A Brief Recap

Last week in my alticle I talked about what the limited information we have about Modern Masters 2015 can tell us about mythics reprints. I extrapolated and made a lot of assumptions, but the things I feel very strongly about were based on the clues we've been given.

I have had time to ruminate on that article in the intervening week and I feel very strongly about the following.

There will be other Eldrazi, even if not at mythic.
Mox Opal will be in the set.
We'll see a cycle at mythic like last time.
Tarmogoyf and Bob will be in the set.

That last one is absolutely not based on any evidence at all, but more a general sense of "Holy @#$% could you imagine if Bob and Goyf weren't in the set?"

I want to spend our time this week talking more generally about Modern Masters 2015 and the Modern format because a lot has occurred to me.

What Is in the Set Matters

But what's not in the set can matter just as much.

Those of you who listen to Money Draught are aware of this (and those of you who don't can scarcely be blamed) but JR is trying as hard as I am to figure out what's in Modern Masters 2015 and I find my opinions lining up with his quite often. He's made a very interesting observation repeatedly, most recently today.

Leyline is awkward. Do you jam a naked Leyline in a set? Do a cycle when there are really only two Leylines worth playing in Modern? Unless there is a strong burn or combo archetype in the set that doesn't require attacking with creatures (Leyline of Sanctity is poor protection from Kiki-Pestermite) the card is useless, and if there is, it's way too good to have at rare.

It just seems like there's no artful way to jam Leyline in the set. If you look at the list of cards in Modern Masters 1, there was nothing glaring or odd. There were some underwhelming choices, but anyone can build a "dream team" set of Magic cards they want to see reprinted--it's quite a bit harder to have one that functions as a set.

I can't rule out Leyline of Sanctity being included in something else, including M16. What we can say is that it's unlikely to be in Modern Masters 2015 and the consequences of its exclusion are pretty dire for its price.

Other "awkward" cards are pretty easy to find. If you don't have an entire "auras" subtheme in the set, it would be very difficult to include Daybreak Coronet, for example.

Over $30 for a non-mythic that needs to be a four-of is rough, but that's the reality of Modern. Wizards isn't in the business of just reprinting cards willy-nilly so that they're not above an imaginary price threshold. Lately they have been finding more unobtrusive ways to reprint cards that people need, but they're just that; unobtrusive.

Some have been flops like the Modern Event deck, which, at $75, failed to capture the market's imagination the way the Standard clash packs did. They have done a better job of controlling the price of Standard staples and have let Modern figure its own prices out.

Still, Modern Masters could be a good way to reprint cards. However, it's not a good way to reprint specialized cards that need other cards to function. You can't have Daybreak Coronet as the only aura in a set or it's useless. $40 is a real possibility at least in the short term if it's not in Modern Masters 2015.

I'm sure it's easy to build a list of "awkward" cards and I'm not going to belabor the point with more examples. Low chance of future reprint is something people take into consideration, but I see significant opportunity for cards to spike by sheer virtue of being excluded from Modern Masters 2015. Leyline and Coronet figure heavily into that calculus. We've seen it happen already.

Selling Based on Conjecture Is Riskier Than Buying

A lot of people thought Noble Hierarch was doomed due to the banning of Birthing Pod, the marquee card in what everyone was calling the "only deck to run it". Without Pod decks, Noble's price was "doomed" and a lot of people sold at banning due to fear of the price plummeting.

It's down from its all-time high that was posted when Khans came out, but it's not likely to continue plummeting and should correct upward soon. The Pro Tour showed two decks that are running Noble and both of them are exciting.

The first is the Infect deck that Tom Ross convinced quite a few people to play.

Noble Hierarch does work in that deck, smoothing out mana and providing a boost to attack power that is much more significant when your opponent has 10 life than when they have 20. Noble deals an extra damage the turn you play it and can help you cast white spells out of the board and a hand full of spells like Might of Old Krosa. It also let you free up your land to attack in a pinch. Your mana curve is low so having a dork is good to help your land-light draws. Noble does work in infect.

The other place it popped up was in Abzan decks like the one piloted by Eric Froelich. Exalted makes your Siege Rhino the best one at the table and having a mana dork that taps for green and white is amazing.

Noble showed up in more lists than anyone anticipated and while there is very little room for growth if the card's all-time high is an accurate projection for its price ceiling, it will be tough to reprint unobtrusively and the promo foil did very little to attenuate its growth. I liked these a lot at $30 and seeing it hit $70, albeit briefly, seemed absurd. They're being played now more than ever and no one who sold hoping to buy in later for cheaper is laughing quite as hard as they predicted.

You're Not LSV

And LSV struggled with lines of play on the the "Samulet" deck that Sam Black and others were playing. The deck is absurdly difficult to pilot.

I take a very dim view of "chasing" this "spike" on Amulet of Vigor specifically.

Just think of all the people who bought in at the first arrow and sold at the second arrow last time. Unfortunately, the community is great at growing greater fools and people who were burned last time didn't buy in this time, but plenty of people did. Lots of orders for $3 amulets got cancelled.

These are tough to move, trust me. I bought in around bulk and sold out around $2 the first time this deck "came out of nowhere." The thing about it is, you only see it played at the Pro Tour. 99% of Magic players aren't good enough to pilot this deck, so there is going to be smaller demand than anticipated on it.

The only thing accomplished by chasing the spiking cards of this deck (which, by the way, is not remotely new) is to basically ruin the price of cards like Azusa, Lost But Seeking for EDH players. Most "loose" copies of Azusa are concentrated in the hands of dealers and they're in no hurry to lower the price because they know EDH demand isn't going away and a non-zero number of people will give up and pay the $50.

They also know that Azusa "spikes" every time there is a Modern PT and all they have to do is wait until there is another Azusa on camera to sell all of their copies.

If a deck is too difficult for the average Magic player to reasonably pilot, demand is going to be attenuated. Ask me how I know.

Followers Gonna Follow

Don't chase price spikes. If you can't use your brain and get ahead of price increases by predicting them, you're going to have a bad time. There were a lot of silly spikes and what this weekend showed was that it's very easy to make a card spike if it fits certain criteria.

More than 10 years old.
A modicum of EDH demand that makes it $5+.
It shows up in a new deck.
Under 30 copies on TCG Player.

That's a recipe for a $20 card. The problem is, will your orders for $5 copies be honored when you buy after seeing it on camera? If you can't buy out the LGS you're screwed. If you can't find a buyer after the weekend, you're screwed.

The real tragedy? Most of the people who help drive the spike up after the real person who profits initiates it lose money and the card's price never recovers. $5 EDH card become $12-$20 EDH cards forever even if EDH demand doesn't increase and the worst part is, casual and EDH players are not only stuck paying higher prices, their modest demand for the card is used as a justification for a price spike on a card that has no business going up.

It hasn't been two days and already Ghostway is down from its peak of $18. It should settle around $10-ish, which is still silly. EDH demand made this a $5 card and absent demand elsewhere it should still be a $5 card. But MTG finance doesn't work like that. This will never be $5 again even if it never sees play in Modern ever again.

GP Vegas 2015 Will Set Records

The event is capped at 10,000 players, which is an astonishingly optimistic cap and one I don't predict they will hit. They don't want to turn people away, though, and this promises to be the biggest card game event in history. This means a lot of things.

First of all, a huge percentage of the Modern Masters opened anywhere was opened in Vegas last time. I don't predict that will be the case this time around. Even if we double the number of attendees, Modern Masters 2015 is going to be printed more than double the amount MM1 was. It's the only thing that makes sense.

The dealers in the room won't have the opportunity to raise their buy price enough to get every Goyf and Bob opened like they did last time. If Goyf and Bob are in the set, an attenuation of that effect plus this increased print run should offset the higher MSRP on the packs and drive the price of Goyf and Bob down.

The landscape of Modern as a format continues to be shaken up by innovation and bannings/unbannings. When we know more about what's for sure in Modern Masters 2015, check back here and we'll discuss what our next move should be.

Insider: [MTGO] Pro Tour Fate Reforged – Online Financial Outcomes

Posted on February 10, 2015January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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Pro Tour Fate Reforged was not the first Modern Pro Tour, but actually the fourth. Nonetheless the last month's B&R list changes and the addition of several Modern-playable cards from Khans of Tarkir made Modern smell like a brand new format.

Expectations and speculation were high before this Pro Tour. As expected, Siege Rhino and Abazan decks took the metagame in charge, and behind them the field was revealed to be fairly opened with few surprises.

Sunday night, Antonio Del Moral Leon and his Splinter Twin deck took the trophy home. From a financial perspective, all lot of exciting things happened. A few cards disappointed by their quasi absence (so be it--not all specs can pay off), and other cards were surprising winners. Aside from the usual impressive price spikes generated by a Pro Tour, let's see how we can capitalize on these results with an incoming MOCS Modern season on MTGO.

Of the Relative Non-Importance of Pro Tours on Card Prices

Pro Tour speculations are flying higher and higher Pro Tour after Pro Tour, with no exceptions this weekend. A card could gain 50% in two hours after showing up on camera and lose 50% the next day for not making it into the Top 8. Inkmoth Nexus jumped from 10 Tix to 14 Tix and came to back to 10 Tix, the whole thing in merely two days.

Because of the ease of trading cards on MTGO, prices fluctuate extremely rapidly, moving from one speculator to another. Does such a price volatility make any sense? Does it really condition the future of card prices? These questions are real and I'm more and more inclined to think that as crazy as prices are during Pro Tours these fluctuations are mostly irrelevant. It's important not to succumb to temptation to sell everything, losers or winners, and to put things in perspective.

The Aftermath of Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir

I was making the same comment right after Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. If the story is to repeat itself (I really believe it will) then we should take a brief moment to see what happened a few weeks after Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir.

Stormbreath Dragon flopped at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir and payed for it with a relatively spectacular drop of 30% the following week. A week later the dragon was back to 12 Tix thanks to being part a the winning deck at GP Los Angeles. Since then, and despite being discrete in Standard decks, Stormbreath Dragon stabilized between 10 and 12 Tix and rose to 15 Tix lately.

Hornet Queen lost about 60% of its value in three days for disappointing results at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. Less then two weeks after this Pro Tour, the queen was more expensive than she even was before the event and emerged as a defining card of the Sidisi Whip deck, a deck that didn't do well during the Pro Tour.

On a different trend, Mantis Rider was in three decks that Top 8'd at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir and then...nothing. As a card from the newest block, Rider wasn't a good speculative target anyway but if it had been it would have been a disappointing one.

These three examples are here to remind us that Pro Tours don't always accurately predict future winners and losers. Most of all, waiting for all the dust thrown in the air by the Pro Tour hype to settle down before making any big decision is probably wise for most of your positions.

A New Modern Era

As is the case for the Modern format now, pro players cannot solve a new eternal format in one Pro Tour. Pro Tour Fate Reforged only set some basis for a possible new Modern environment after the addition of key cards from Khans of Tarkir and after the big changes from the B&R list last month.

With too much discussion on the diversity of the field as seen in D.C. the the main contenders all showed up. Not surprisingly, most competitors (a little less than 30%) brought an Abzan deck. If the deck is for sure a strong force in Modern I wonder how many players chose this option as a default deck that would have good chances against anything in this relatively undefined metagame.

Burn and Infect decks were not expected at that level and will have to be seriously taken into account when brewing in this format. Amulet decks showed their real potential and a good old Splinter Twin deck, also a good choice in an unclear environment, won it all. In the no-show section Dredge decks proved, if you needed it, that Golgari Grave-Troll is not enough to suddenly turn Dredge decks into power-houses, even with the delve mechanic around.

From a speculative standpoint Modern is and always has been very diverse, with or without the dominance of a few decks. This format is even more diverse on MTGO and allows the price swing of hundreds of potentially playable cards. Some cards will break new record highs in the weeks or months to come, others might drop significantly, and all will established new cycles of ups and downs as Modern cards always do.

Big Winners, Big Losers and Others

A lot can be said about what cards benefited from this Pro Tour and what cards didn't. There are also a lot of nuances that can't be summarized by the decks that made it to the Top 8 or even by the top Modern decks (the decks that scored 18 points of better).

Here I'll focus on the cards I consider to have lost or gained the most from this past weekend. Especially for the big losers I think it's important to decide now. With MMA2015 coming up soon, all cards (with the exception of excluded sets) are susceptible to be reprinted, meaning that losers may not have time to bottom and rebound again before Modern Masters 2015 is released.

This review here applies to positions you currently hold; I would not recommend buying the following cards if you wanted to spec on them now.

Winners

Goblin Guide & Eidolon of the Great Revel. Burn decks were a known thing on MTGO but they never reached such notoriety during Grand Prix or Pro Tours. They were the second most played deck after Abzan ones. Even more players might now be interested in playing that strategy online and during the Modern MOCS season.

Grim Lavamancer could also be part this team but was not as widely played as the goblin and the eidolon were. This strong finish will also help sustain the price of Sacred Foundry, Lightning Helix and Skullcrack

Expecting Burn decks to be even more popular now than usual on MTGO, I'm expecting the key cards of the deck to keep rising, at least until they reach their previous heights.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Guide

Primeval Titan, Azusa, Lost but Seeking, Pact of Negation, Summoner's Pact & Amulet of Vigor. The deck didn't win the Pro Tour but it made a strong impression. As the Amulet deck proved resilient against several decks including Burn and Abzan, it should generate some enthusiasm online. However, two things put the deck in a delicate situation for future growth--the deck is not easy to play and the deck seems to be quite vulnerable to Splinter Twin decks and Blood Moon in general.

For these reasons I would not be too greedy with these positions, especially since Azusa, Titan and Amulet have already broken their record high. The pacts may have a little more room to growth though.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

Noble Hierarch is a big winner here. Not only is he a major card of Infect decks but is also now part of Abzan decks. Hierarch is a serious candidate for a reprint in MMA2015. Waiting for that this month of February should be favorable to this mana dork and should set it back to 40 Tix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Noble Hierarch

Inkmoth Nexus is also in a strong position after the Pro Tour. Infect decks didn't make it to the top but they left a sweet taste in the mouth of anyone who watched them on camera. Nexus jumped from 10 Tix to 14 Tix when Infect decks were confirmed to be played by pros from the CFB Pantheon team. The card went back down to 10 Tix as a sanction for not appearing in Top 8. Nevertheless I fully expect Inkmoth Nexus to rise again to 12-14 Tix thanks to the MOCS season.

Splinter Twin. This is still and again the deck to beat. Winning, again, the Modern Pro Tour is a good sign for speculators that are still holding their copies of the red enchantment. No doubt that Splinter Twin deck will be a deck of choice for Modern players on MTGO. Moving forward I think it's reasonable to expect this card to pass 20 Tix before the end of the month.

Lingering Souls. Finally this card get the credit it deserved, with massive play at this Pro Tour. Although Lingering Souls was always floating around without any price movement it seems now that the white sorcery has become a defining card. Being safe from reprint in MMA2015 will certainly make this card a new Modern cyclical position. I had accumulated a dozen playsets since it rotated out of Standard and it's time to cash out, in a week or two off course.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lingering Souls

Losers

Some decks were under-represented, some decks didn't perform well, but some cards were clearly missing in this new Modern environment even in decklists that usually play them.

Dark Confidant is a rather unexpected loser of this new Modern era. Even with aggressive U/R Delver deck out of the way the Confidant didn't resist the incorporation of Siege Rhino and Tasigur, the Golden Fang to Abzan decks. With two high-casting-cost cards in the mix the risk of losing too much life to Bob is real. Unless the environment evolves rapidly to get Dark Confidant back in decklists soon I would recommend selling it now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Confidant

Cryptic Command. With more Burn decks, more Infect decks and Amulet decks that can kill you turn two, the four-mana counterspell appears underwhelming. A few copies were seen here and there in Splinter Twin decks and UWR Control decks (the other deck that could play the Command) didn't do great at all this past weekend. I don't see any upside for Cryptic Command in a near future, and with still a potential reprint in MMA2015 I won't to get stuck with this blue instant in portfolio at the moment. I sold my copies.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

Pyromancer Ascension. Not really a big loser but Storm didn't do great this time around and unlike in previous Modern Pro Tours. Ascension was at its top during Fate Reforged release last week and is on the decline since then. Without a strong finish at the Pro Tour to consolidate its price I'm afraid Pyromancer Ascension is cycling down. Amulet decks, Burn decks and Infect decks seem to have taken the slots of the non-interacting deck of the format. Here again, I have sold my copies.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pyromancer Ascension

One Month to Turn Your Stock Into Profit

Beside these few obvious losers and winners (in my opinion) everything remain fairly open. Numerous decks didn't particularly shine during this Pro Tour--R/G Tron, Living End, Bogles, Merfolk, U/W Tron, Zoo and Affinity. As I said in the introduction, one Pro Tour doesn't tell the whole story of a format, and all these archetypes will have their chance to shine online.

In the Top 16 of this past weekend's Pro Tour, Burn (5 players) and Infect (3 players) showed the strongest finish and we should expect to see these decks showing up frequently in Daily Events.

MTGO is known to be a place where metagames adapt and change rapidly. With a Modern MOCS season to motivate players to further shape this new Modern format, we should have several opportunities to sell all kind of Modern positions with a decent profit. After price variations that don't make a lot of sense due to speculators, I expect prices to be supported by players within a week. Next weekend should be a good starting point to seriously define new trends in Modern.

Keep in mind that this month might as well be the last opportunity to sell several Modern positions for a long time. Not only will prices be at their highest this month because of the MOCS season, but as we approach the release of MMA2015 and learn more about potential reprints, some cards will lose a significant chunk of their value. For this reason I think selling all cards threatened by a reprint in MMA2015 in the following three to four weeks is the best thing to do, with or without profit.

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

The Next Must-Have Item

Posted on February 9, 2015 by Jason Alt

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Did you get your all-black Nicol Bolas from the PT? No? That's OK because that is SO last week.

Don't get me wrong, Bolas looked pretty cool.

Not bad. Not bad at all. Even if you don't collect toys (or action figures as some insist they be called), you can see that a toyction figuoy this cool is worth having even if it's not worth a ton of money. But we've moved on. And the new thing we've moved on to is amazing.

This is the GP Memphis playmat. This is no mere Elvish Impersonator, it's the King himself, baby. Memphis is a killer city to visit and the GP promises to be one that is worth going to as much for the atmosphere as for the event. If past cool looking playmats are any indication, this will be worth considerably more than the price of entry into the tournament and it sale on eBay early enough could subsidize the entry fee and possibly part of the trip. Not bad! If you're headed to Memphis, buy as many mats as you can off-site.

Remember this guy? It only goes for about $50 now, but it was worth considerably more at its peak. $50. for a playmat that you get for free when you enter the event. And one that is arguably less cool than the Elvish Presley mat from GP Memphis. Make sure you get yours if you can and maybe pick up a few to take back home and sell in person.

Deck Overview: Modern Dredge

Posted on February 9, 2015February 8, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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The Modern decklists from Pro Tour Fate Reforged are pretty boring to look through. There are scores of Abzan, Burn, Splinter Twin, Infect and a couple other decks that we've seen before peppered in-between. The big difference is that these decks now play more delve cards. Tasigur, the Golden Fang is everywhere, and Become Immense is making waves in infect. Ray Tautic decided to sleeve up a different delve creature.

Ray Tautic's Modern Dredge

spells

4 Lotleth Troll

3 Golgari Grave-Troll

4 Vengevine

3 Gurmag Angler

3 Satyr Wayfinder

4 Gravecrawler

4 Bloodghast

4 Grisly Salvage

2 Murderous Cut

2 Darkblast

3 Abrupt Decay

4 Faithless Looting

lands

4 Verdant Catacombs

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

2 Blood Crypt

3 Overgrown Tomb

1 Twilight Mire

1 Treetop Village

1 Stomping Ground

1 Forest

1 Swamp

2 Bloodstained Mire

sideboard

3 Gnaw to the Bone

2 Slaughter Games

3 Thoughtseize

3 Ancient Grudge

1 Boil

2 Golgari Charm

1 Blood Moon

Despite being a totally serviceable draft common, I don't think anybody was expecting to play against a Gurmag Angler in the Modern portion of the PT. I had heard buzz about Lotleth Troll, but Tautic had to dig pretty deep to find this zombie to enable his Gravecrawlers.

Arguably the best zombie fish ever printed.

A lot of the Abzan lists present at the PT were trying very hard to break the Abzan mirror. That's likely Tautic's intention with this build. Lingering Souls is strong, but 12 creatures that easily come back from the graveyard presents better longevity. The deck's general resilience to Abrupt Decay is also not for nothing.

I'd be surprised if Amulet Bloom wasn't at least one of Tautic's losses, but Abrupt Decay, Murderous Cut and Thoughtseize give this deck a lot of game against the more reasonable combo decks in the format. Meanwhile, Gnaw to the Bone provides a card that burn will usually need two Skullcracks to beat.

I'd be curious to know how this build fares against Tron, but barring Tron and Amulet Bloom I can see this deck being very well-positioned in Modern. And come on, you know you're excited to sleeve up Grumag Angler.

Bad Financial Advice from 1995

Posted on February 9, 2015February 6, 2015 by Danny Brown

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I recently attained some copies of old MTG magazines. For those of you who grew up with Scrye, Inquest, or The Duelist, you understand the nostalgia involved here, but for those of you too young to remember paper magazines, allow me to explain. You see, back in the day, we didn't have Daily MTG or Quiet Speculation or basically any Magic websites at all. We certainly didn't have easy access to pricing through Trader Tools, TCGplayer, or whatever. What we had were monthly magazines, and they were glorious. They had price guides and articles, the same thing you're used to now, except that we only got them once a month, so they were about 30 times as special as the articles you read on a daily basis (not to downplay my efforts too much or anything...).

I'm going to be writing up the periodic post about what I find in these old magazines, so let me know: what do you want to see? Old articles? Decklists? Pricing? All of the above? Misconceptions about how good a bad card is or how bad good card is? Typos? There's some great comedy and historic gold in these pages, but there's so much of it that I need to know what you, the readers, want to see. Tweet at me or let me know in the comments.

Today, let's take a look at some of the awesomeness contained in Scrye #10, published in 1995 (but oddly, without a publication month apparent anywhere in the issue).

First, let's take a look at how MTG finance worked in the early days of the game.

Have you heard of any of the cards M. Dwyer called out? I have not, but let me tag them for you here: Ebon Praetor, Breeding Pit, Hand of Justice.

I have to admit, Ebon Praetor has some fantastic art, and I am quite sure I've never seen the card before now. On the other hand, I did remember Breeding Pit once I saw the art. If Dwyer liked this, I wonder what he thinks about Awakening Zone! Hand of Justice... meh.

As for the advice to buy Fallen Empires boxes for $40: this was obviously correct. I mean, it is a 20-year-old set, but take a look at the current eBay listings! A clear double-up opportunity was missed by all those stupid dealers who didn't want to hold their boxes.

This is interesting for two reasons:

1. Even back in 1995, people were complaining about speculators being more important to Wizards than players. Some things never change.

2. Chronicles and Ice Age were two of the most overprinted sets in history. Their cards are worthless today because there are so many in existence. Yet Scrye was talking about shortages. It just goes to show how misperceptions, misinformation, and rumors can impact the game.

The issue featured some awful custom card designs, with this one taking the cake:

I, for one, am glad that Aaron got the WOTC development job over his brother, Steve.

And then we have prices. The price guide itself is interesting, but I'm ignoring that for the advertisements. Seeing what "deals" some places were offering is pretty insane:

What do you think? Would you rather buy a set of Revised for $400 or Ice Age for $500? Maybe an Antiquities set for even less?

Take a look at what Ice Age singles were going for:

Icy Manipulator is an uncommon, but nobody knew which cards were which rarities, so they have it listed here as a rare and for nine dollars. Jester's Cap was the most expensive card in the set, selling for $24.

Meanwhile, Necropotence, the set's clear winner as far as power level, is sitting at only $7. Go figure.

Here's some more crazy prices from a different store:

Yes, Fork was the most expensive card in Revised. Look at all the bad cards that cost more than Demonic Tutor. Did nobody know how to evaluate cards or what? And this shop is selling Icy Manipulator for $12! The craziest part about this list is that many of these cards are straight-up bulk now. People talk about how Shivan Dragon was the most expensive card back in the day, but here we see it illustrated. People, Sylvan Library was in Fourth Edition. It's not even listed here!

I could probably write another few thousand words on all of the information we could glean from this issue, but I'm going to leave some of the greatness for y'all to pick out. Comment below with your favorite observation from these photos. And again, let me know what you'd like to see from these old magazines! This is but a small sampling of the hilarious nonsense and interesting history I found in this issue, and I've got a bunch more to go through. Until next time!

Insider: Top Targets from Pro Tour Fate Reforged

Posted on February 9, 2015January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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As you likely already know, this past weekend was Pro Tour Fate Reforged. The event featured some rounds of draft as well as the tournament highlight: Modern.

Recall that Wizards just destroyed the best deck in the format a few weeks ago by banning Birthing Pod, while also severely hindering blue strategies by eliminating Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time.

What remained was a wide-open format, with plenty of room for tinkering.

I had additional personal interest in the event, for both financial implications as well as for ideas regarding what I should build next, seeing as my Melira Pod deck is extinct.

The top options I watched throughout the weekend were far from stimulating, and it left me scratching my head when it comes to speculation targets. In many cases, the top pick-ups are already so expensive that it forces me to question what upside remains. There’s also significant reprint risk.

Still, I have a few ideas and general observations worth sharing.

The Break Down

Wanting to build a competitive deck for myself, my sights naturally turn to the Top 8 lists. These are also the lists that will get the most screen time, dominating everyone’s attention Sunday.

However, the results are… lacking, to say the least.

Siege Rhino.dec – 3*
Splinter Twin – 2
Burn – 2
Bloom Titan – 1

*Yes the Abzan builds are different. I’m choosing to group them together for simplicity.

Abzan Decks

Seeing as I used to play Melira Pod with Siege Rhino, the logical decision could be to move towards one of the Abzan builds in the Top 8.

Problem is I don’t own Tarmogoyfs or Liliana of the Veils. They’re both already a fortune, and the former could easily show up in Modern Masters 2015 and should be approaching a ceiling.

It is my own fault for not picking these up when Birthing Pod was banned. But now that I have perfect hindsight, I can’t bring myself to move in on the dominant Planeswalker at $87 a pop.

Innistrad was opened quite a bit. Although she’s a mythic, I can’t help but fear that a reprint will plummet her value.

Thinking about it mathematically, I see remaining upside of maybe 10-15% as she approaches $100. But downside here is huge, as a reprint or sudden shift in metagame could send her right back down to $60 again. Net, she was a great pickup a month or two ago. I missed the boat, however, and I’m not getting on here.

Sig, can’t you just run the unique Abzan build piloted by Jacob Wilson? It ran no Goyfs and no Lilis!

This is a fair point, and I considered it. But I am not thrilled about some of the cards in the deck from a financial standpoint. For example, many people are anticipating a Noble Hierarch reprint in MMA2015. I do own two copies, and I’m thrilled to see the mana dork is still relevant even without Pod decks. This should stop the downward movement in price that’s been painful to watch.

Being so reprintable, especially at rare, I can’t advocate buying here for financial speculation. In fact, I’ll be looking to unload my two copies in the coming months leading up to MMA2015.

I also dislike Wilt-leaf Liege from a financial standpoint. Sure, short-term prospects seem positive. If you bought Saturday for $13, you’re likely to profit as this card breaks $20 – especially if this particular Abzan build beats out the more traditional ones.

But again, I actually do fear reprint in MMA2015. It’s just a theory, but I believe there may be a hybrid mana theme in the set, supported by filter lands. And wouldn’t it be convenient if Wizards also planned the cycle of Lieges to occur in the set?

That being said, I do see Liege going higher in the short term, so if you can find copies at the “old” price and flip them quickly, I’m all for it.

And, of course, there’s Siege Rhino. If he was dominant in Legacy, we’d see this card well over $10 already. As it stands, the rhino has been on a steady uptrend since bottoming a couple months ago. This trend will continue, and my price target is $10. That means buying at $6 isn’t that exciting if you’re in it for the profits.

But if you want copies to play with, get ‘em now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Siege Rhino

Burn

No thanks. Not playing Burn.

But the deck is unfortunately legit. So we can’t ignore it from a financial standpoint.

Good pickups here? I don’t like Goblin Guide a whole lot. He’s too reprintable and he’s already a fortune. Grim Lavamancer may be more interesting. Although he’s bounced a bunch lately, and seeing as he was in Fire and Lightning, I don’t know what kind of upside he still has.

Eidolon of the Great Revel could be another solid pickup. He’s a mainstay in Modern and Legacy Burn strategies. He’s about to rotate out of Standard, but I suspect it’s not Standard that’s propping up his price anyway. Being so recently printed, there’s even a small immunity to reprinting in the short run that also makes spirit enchantment creature more attractive. I’d try to trade for them.

Then, of course, there are the commons and uncommons like Lava Spike and Rift Bolt. They’re both in the original Modern Masters but they are far from their bottom. If they don’t get reprinted again, they’ll be destined for higher prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lava Spike

Splinter Twin

This strategy has been around for a long time in Modern, and it only makes sense that the deck gets better and better as its competition gets banned to oblivion. Twin was always a playable deck for competitive Modern, but now that so many other archetypes have been removed from the picture, it’s natural to see Twin strategies rise to the top.

It’s a good thing, too. Without Splinter Twin, there’d be practically no reason for people to own cards like Cryptic Command and Serum Visions. In fact, I’m not certain this deck alone can buoy the prices of these blue cards all that much. I’d sell both – especially with risk of Serum Visions getting a reprint in MMA2015.

I do like Snapcaster Mage here, despite already being expensive. He’s dodging reprint in MMA2015 and he’s heavily played in both Modern and Legacy. I see the human wizard approaching $50 into the summer if Twin remains a strong Modern strategy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

As for Splinter Twin itself? I think I’d rather have my money in something like Snappy. Twin can be reprinted in MMA2015 and its playability is much more narrow.

Bloom Titan

This list definitely leaves room for the most opportunity from a financial standpoint. This strategy has been around for a long while, but perhaps the recent bannings has finally done enough to make this Tier 2 deck break into the top tier.

Because it has been under the radar for so long, there are many cheap targets worth grabbing for financial speculation.

It’s probably a bit late for Amulet of Vigor, which has already skyrocketed in price.

Despite this, other critical pieces to the deck are still cheap. Hive Mind has only one printing in a core set and is still under $3. I don’t expect this enchantment to appear in MMA2015, and it even shows up in Legacy from time to time.

Its partner in crime, Summoner's Pact, is also relatively inexpensive. Sure, it was reprinted in the first Modern Masters, but that means it likely won’t be reprinted a second time. Pact also has some appeal outside of Modern, making it a bit safer to buy into.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hive Mind

Azusa, Lost but Seeking is already very expensive and is only a two-of in the deck. But Primeval Titan is a 4-of and won’t be reprinted again in the near term.

That being said, I still like Hive Mind and Summoner's Pact the most for their versatility and price. They haven’t spiked (not as of Sunday morning at least) and aren’t likely to be reprinted any time soon.

What Should I Play?

The only list in the Top 8 that really interests me from a playability standpoint is the Bloom Titan deck. The others are really not exciting to me. And I’ve always been a fan of complicated combo decks!

Problem is, I really have little motivation to buy all the cards needed to play this deck. Some of them are relatively expensive, and now they’re all likely to be even more costly after performing well at the Pro Tour. Do I really want to pay $30+ for a set of Amulet of Vigors? $50+ for two Azusas? Not likely.

Still, outside of Burn (yuck), this is the cheapest deck in the Top 8. So perhaps it is the best option.

I’ll most likely wait and watch how things unfold throughout the coming weeks. Perhaps I’ll get lucky and make some money on the hottest specs from the Pro Tour to help subsidize my deck choice. And if I do decide to go the Bloom Titan route, I’ll have all the pieces of Melira Pod to sell to fund the endeavor. If anything, Verdant Catacombs and Noble Hierarchs will subsidize my new deck nicely.

No other top strategies grabbed my attention last weekend. So if I can’t make Bloom Titan work, I guess I am presently done with the format. It makes me wonder how many others are in my boat, looking for a new deck to play but not finding inspiration in what’s out there.

What do you think? Could the new Modern format feel so stale that it turns players off from it altogether? Enough so to influence prices? It’s certainly worth considering, which is why I prefer to put my money into versatile cards that are playable in Legacy as well, if at all possible. Because Legacy, as we all know, is alive and well.

…

Sigbits

Expect many cards to plummet in price coming out of the Pro Tour as well. There are a handful of cards people speculated deeply on that did very little in the main event. The biggest loser? Ghostway. Star City Games is out of stock at $8.79 right now, but don’t expect that price to rise, seeing as the card did nothing last weekend.
Geist of Saint Traft is another loser. I was skeptical of it myself, and I’m very happy to see my suspicions confirmed. Zero copies in the Top 8 means the creature is yet again homeless. SCG currently has 35 copies in stock with a NM price tag of $22.15. I think this goes lower in the next month.
Vengevine is another card that did nothing last weekend. Many players speculated on Golgari Grave-Troll breaking out during the Pro Tour, but this was not the case. They are currently sold out of regular copies of Vengevine at $19.79. They’re also out of stock of NM Trolls at $8.85 (Duel Deck) and $9.45 (Ravnica). Neither of these will hold these price tags.

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