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Your Mom Thinks Speculators Are Ruining Magic

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This appeared in Scrye Magazine in 1994, and dug out of the Time Vault by a redditor.

A letter from a concerned mother says it all.

Screenshot 2014-03-21 10.06.48

Those damned computer markets with their high frequency trading and their robot algorithms.  In all seriousness, however, Magic is both a game and a commodity.  If only 1994 Mom knew what was to come in the commodities market, she might stop Riding the Dilu Horse of self-righteousness, pony up the allowance money to her kids, and let them buy some $15 Legends packs.  If the little brats had the discipline to keep them sealed ( or at least do that thing where you push the cards up with your thumb to find all the Moats and Mana Drains in old cellophane packs ), maybe they'd be rich enough to afford a decent retirement home for their dear old mother.

For reference, our friends at Star City Games would love to sell you a sealed box of Legends for $5000.  You know, if they could find one.  That's right, the most powerful men in Magic's secondary (computer?) market can't even sell you one.

Ironically, if I had saved my $5 allowance each week for 20 years, I'd have just about enough to buy one of these non-existent booster boxes.  The hard part would be convincing my mom to give a 30 year old an allowance.  Whatever.  I'm asking Dad.

Speculators, En Guard!
Speculators, En Guard!

Insider: Comparison of Theros Block Boosters on MTGO

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Recent Booster Prices

While Born of the Gods (BNG) release events were running, a steady stream of BNG boosters entered the market from the sealed queues. This influx of BNG boosters into the MTGO economy pushed the price down into the 2.6-2.9 tix range. Since the end of release events about two weeks ago, the price has risen into the 3.3 to 3.4 tix range. At the same time, the price of Theros (THS) boosters has fallen from about 3.3 tix to 3.0 tix.

For speculators, there are a couple of things to chew on here. The dip in price of BNG boosters during release events and the subsequent rise in price was expected. After all, the 16-person sealed queues took in tix only and awarded BNG boosters as (quite generous) prizes. However, the magnitude and the speed of the price increase surprised me.

On the other hand, the fall in the price of THS boosters was unexpected. Although it was a surprise to see that THS boosters, alongside BNG boosters, would continue to be awarded in Daily and Premiere Events, the slightly skewed nature of draft payouts in 4-3-2-2 drafts should have ensured a steady increase in the amount of BNG boosters on the market as well as a steady decrease of THS boosters. Something was happening here and further research would be needed.

The Analysis

Let's start with a few assumptions.

  1. The value of a pack mostly comes from its use in draft.
  2. THS and BNG packs are consumed in 2:1 proportion.
  3. THS and BNG boosters enter the market in a 2:1 proportion.

With these assumptions, we can come up with an hypothesis to test.

The price of THS and BNG boosters should converge over time. To wit, any excess supply of THS or BNG boosters should get consumed over time, and their prices should move closer together.

But, we are seeing that the prices of these two boosters are in fact diverging. This means that our hypothesis as stated is incorrect. In order to further the analysis, we are going to have to closely examine our assumptions for their veracity.

Going Down the List

The first assumption has some available evidence to support it. Check out the expected value (EV) calculations over at MagicEV. A booster of THS has an EV of 0.74 tix, meanwhile a booster of BNG has an EV of 1.19 tix.

Comparing the EV to the price of given pack, it's obvious that most of the value of a pack comes from what is used for, i.e. drafting. If packs were valued just for their contents, then we'd see lower prices in the market.

The second assumption has anecdotal support, but otherwise is hard to prove or disprove. However, I don't know how many people are interested in burning over 2 dollars per booster of digital objects. I think it's safe to say that packs rarely get cracked online outside of draft queues and other Limited events.

The third assumption seems to be the weakest. Further exploring how boosters enter the market should give some insight into this problem.

Closely Examining Booster Prizes

Let's start with the draft room, where a lot of packs are handed out every day. For both Swiss and 8-4 THS block draft, overall prizes are awarded in a perfect ratio of 2 THS boosters to 1 BNG boosters.

If you finish 3-0 in Swiss, you get a draft set. If you finish 2-1, you get one each of THS and BNG. If you finished 1-2, you get a booster of THS. With one person finishing 3-0, three people finishing 2-1, and three people finishing 1-2, then 8 THS boosters and 4 BNG boosters are awarded. Eight draft sets go in, four draft sets come out.

8-4 drafts are even easier to parse. First place is 5 THS, 3 BNG, 2nd place is 3 THS, 1 BNG--again eight draft sets go in, four come out. Therefore, we can conclude that both Swiss and 8-4 THS block drafts will have no impact on the relative abundance of either booster in the secondary market.

4-3-2-2 Queues

Then there's the matter of 4-3-2-2 queues. These drafts are a little skewed as they award a total of only 11 boosters. Third and fourth place both get one each of THS and BNG. Second place gets a draft set, while first place gets a draft set plus one THS.

Overall, 7 THS and 4 BNG are awarded. This payout will slightly devalue BNG boosters over time as players will more often need to buy a booster of THS to complete their draft set. This is the first, albeit small, strike against the third assumption.

Daily Events

Next, let's look at Daily Events (DEs). For a THS block sealed DE, if you finish 3-1 or 2-2, the prizes are in a 2:1 ratio of THS to BNG boosters. But, if you finish 4-0, you will get 9 THS boosters and 3 BNG boosters. In this case, the 4-0 players are left with three excess THS boosters. This excess supply will devalue THS boosters on the Classifieds over time.

This is the second strike against the third assumption but notably it runs counter to the 4-3-2-2 payouts in that the excess booster is THS rather than BNG.

For a Constructed Daily Event, a record of 4-0 gets you 7 THS boosters and 4 BNG boosters, while those going 3-1 receive 4 THS and 2 BNG. Unlike sealed DEs, Constructed DEs will award a slightly higher percentage of BNG boosters. Given the fact that Standard DEs are by far the most popular DE (often filling to capacity in advance of the event itself), this suggests that the prize payouts for Daily Events overall are roughly balanced.

With DE payouts roughly equating, to me it's doubtful that the skewed payout of 4-3-2-2 drafts would be enough to affect prices over time. The recent observed price changes have been too rapid for the slow leak of one THS booster per draft.

Constructed Queues

The last spot to look in an attempt to discredit the third assumption is in the Constructed queues. For all eight-person Constructed queues, prizes are such that 8 THS boosters are awarded compared to only 4 BNG boosters. This payout devalues THS boosters relative to BNG boosters.

Next, the two-person Constructed queues only award THS boosters. Now we are getting somewhere. Every eight-man and two-man Constructed queue that fires is putting more THS boosters into the market relative to BNG. So far, the biggest leak in our assumption seems to be coming from the Constructed queues room.

Next, we should try to get a sense of the relative magnitudes involved here. Last night I took a sample of events from around 6 pm EST to 8 pm EST on MTGO to get a feel for what was happening.

From 6:11 pm EST to 7:54 pm EST, 26 eight-person Constructed queues fired. That's roughly 15 queues an hour.

From 7:06 pm EST to 7:59 pm EST, 45 two-person Constructed queues fired. This is about 50 queues an hour.

From 6:06 pm EST to 8:01 pm EST, 23 Theros Block 4-3-2-2 queues fired. This is about 12 queues an hour.

So for every hour during this period last night, eight-person Constructed queues awarded 120 THS and 60 BNG, two-person Constructed queues awarded 50 THS and 0 BNG, and then the THS Block 4-3-2-2 queues awarded 84 THS and 48 BNG. Overall, the ratio of THS to BNG in this (admittedly small) sample is 254:108 or about 2.35 to 1.

Conclusion

I think we have our culprit. Eight- and two-person Constructed queues award a high proportion of THS relative to BNG. Also, the Constructed queues fire at a much higher pace than the 4-3-2-2 queues.

The caveat here though is that Cube draft and Mirage Block draft went live last night, meaning the 4-3-2-2 queues might be under represented in this sample. Nevertheless, based on this sample, in order to get the prize ratio down to 2:1 between THS and BNG boosters, the rate 4-3-2-2 queues would need to fire at would have to more than quadruple, from 12 queues an hour to 50.

I think it's safe to say the third assumption is incorrect, and that the hypothesis needs to be revisited. Our third assumption should read something like the following.

  1. Relative to BNG boosters, more THS boosters are awarded as prizes due to the popularity of on-demand Constructed queues.

The hypothesis would then read:

Over time, THS and BNG boosters will diverge in price as BNG becomes relatively more scarce and THS relatively abundant.

This new assumption, backed up by analysis of a small sample of data, supports the hypothesis which lines up with observed price trends. It's interesting to note that the additions of an extra QP to the winner of eight-man Constructed queues probably spurred this change in the MTGO economy.

Plan of Action

For speculators, this means that we can expect BNG boosters to continue higher and for THS boosters to continue lower as long as the conditions described above remain the same. I'd expect these conditions to be in place until the release of Journey Into Nyx (JOU). At that point, demand for Constructed queues should fall, and we will get a new prize structure with the addition of JOU boosters.

If you are holding a relatively large amount of THS boosters, as I am, it would be time consuming to flip THS boosters for BNG boosters at this moment. Also, the gains would probably be minimal. I think we'll see BNG boosters level off in the 3.4 to 3.6 tix range, and THS boosters level off in the 2.5 to 2.8 tix range.

My plan is to hold my THS boosters until the release of JOU and then see how the prize structures change. I'd expect a more favorable environment for price gains on THS in May and June.

For next year, if the block structure is again large-small-small and the prize structure is the same, there will be a nice short-term opportunity on the middle block boosters during release events. The recent jump in BNG boosters from 2.7 tix to 3.3 tix was a good speculative opportunity worth noting for the future.

Matthew Lewis

Matt Lewis currently lives in Ottawa, Canada and is a long time player and PTQ grinder who now speculates and plays exclusively on MTGO. He's always ready to discuss ideas and investment strategies, so drop him a line in the comments, the forums or on modo, username mattlewis.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Magic Card Market Theory, MTGO11 Comments on Insider: Comparison of Theros Block Boosters on MTGO

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Standard Sideboarding Primer: Mono-Black Devotion

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Grand Prix Cincinnati is this weekend, and Standard is the name of the game. Success in Standard tournaments boils down to understanding of a format and familiarity with a deck. If you understand everything going on in a format, and you plan for the possibility of seeing anything and everything across the table, you will probably be successful with any top-tier deck. If you play a deck you are familiar with, you are unlikely to make all of the little stumbles that tend to occur when exploring new territory. Less time spent figuring out the basics leads to more time for higher-level thought.

There was an error retrieving a chart for thoughtseize
There was an error retrieving a chart for nightveil specter

I've been battling with Mono-Black Devotion in Standard since the beginning. It's been over 6 months now since the deck debuted at Pro Tour Theros. My entire experience in Theros Standard has been through a black lens, and it's through that lens that I will see the competition this weekend in Cincinnati.

Nowhere is familiarity with a deck and its matchups more important than when sideboarding. Sideboards allow a deck to adjust itself to better combat a particular strategy or type of card. Being limited to just one color greatly restricts access to sideboard cards, but the quality of Standard black cards is so high that Mono-Black Devotion has no issue finding solutions to its problems. Some players opt to splash colors for sideboard cards, but I don't think they solve any problems that black cards cannot solve. In a theoretical sense, playing shocklands in the maindeck makes the deck strictly worse.

Here is my current list:

Mono-Black Devotion

Land

4 Mutavault
4 Temple of Deceit
18 Swamp

Creatures

4 Pack Rat
4 Nightveil Specter
4 Desecration Demon
4 Gray Merchant of Asphodel

Spells

4 Thoughtseize
4 Hero's Downfall
4 Devour Flesh
2 Bile Blight
4 Underworld Connections

Sideboard

4 Duress
3 Erebos, God of the Dead
3 Lifebane Zombie
3 Doom Blade
2 Dark Betrayal

I've arrived at that list after a lot of games and discussion, and I am very confident in it for any Standard tournament this weekend.

This Monoblack deck is built to play only the most flexible and broadly-effective cards in the maindeck. The sideboard contains some of the most efficient cards available in the format, and it allows Mono-Black to shift gears as appropriate. The sideboard contains extra removal for creature decks, extra discard for spell decks, and some powerful, targeted hate cards that combat entire strategies. In my experience Mono-Black Devotion holds true to the control standard of getting better after sideboard against the average opponent, because the cards it sideboards in outperform the cards opponents sideboard in.

Sideboarding is very flexible, but here's a guide on how I usually do it against the major decks:

MIRROR MATCH

In


Out

Desecration Demon is very vulnerable to black removal and will often be destroyed at a huge tempo loss, so it is removed. Hero's Downfall is the slowest removal spell and is terrible against Pack Rat, so it leaves and Dark Betrayal comes in. Duress is very important because fighting over Underworld Connections and protecting Pack Rat defines the matchup. On the draw I might cut a Gray Merchant of Asphodel or a land and leave in the fourth Devour Flesh.

ESPER CONTROL

In


Out

Against Esper control, Duress is the best card and gives the deck an absurd amount of disruption when paired with Thoughtseize. Erebos, God of the Dead draws cards, stops lifegain from Sphinx's Revelation, and is a high-powered threat. Lifebane Zombie is critical for snagging Blood Baron of Vizkopa, while a couple Devour Flesh stay in for added protection. Hero's Downfall is not exceptional but a couple stay in as insurance against planeswakers that dodge discard. Gray Merchant of Asphodel is very weak against a deck with so much removal, and it is quite slow, so all of them are removed. Esper does not pressure the life total like other decks, so the lifegain is not needed to keep Underworld Connections active.

GRUUL MONSTERS

In


Out

Doom Blade destroys any of their creatures, often at a tempo gain, while Lifebane Zombie is an evasive threat that can create value. Pack Rat is simply too slow and too small to fight against large Gruul creatures, and it is also vulnerable to Domri Rade and Mizzium Mortars. Bile Blight does not kill anything important and is thus removed. Nightveil Specter is useful as an evasive threat that synergies with Gray Merchant of Asphodel.

BLUE DEVOTION

In


Out

Doom Blade is incredible, and it kills everything but Thassa, God of the Sea. Lifebane Zombie is important as an aggressive, evasive threat. Desecration Demon can be effective, but I like to cut it because it is so clunky against their blue disruption and army of cheap creatures. I think Underworld Connections is important as a way to bury Monoblue with cards, as otherwise Thassa, God of the Sea or Bident of Thassa will take over the game. It is also a key source of devotion for Gray Merchant of Asphodel, one of the most important cards in the matchup. Hero's Downfall is clunky, so one is removed.

BURN

In


Out

Against burn the plan is to preserve life total at all costs, so most of the life-loss cards are removed. Duress is the best sideboard card, and it gives Monoblack Devotion a way to trade off cards with the opponent as it is accustomed to doing in other matchups. Monoblack must be aggressive, so Lifebane Zombie acts as a threat that can sometimes snag a Boros Reckoner. Doom Blade is simply better than Hero's Downfal. Bile Blight has applications against Chandra's Phoenix and even Assemble the Legion. The best card is actually Devour Flesh, which can be used in combination with Desecration Demon or Gray Merchant of Asphodel to great effect.

If you have sideboard questions or want to learn about other matchups please turn to the comments section.

You Make The Play

Imagine you are in the middle of a match this weekend, with your trusty Monoblack Devotion deck of course. Top 8 is on the line, and it's the dreaded mirror match. Your opponent gets you in the first game, but not to be discouraged, you sideboard like  I suggested and confidently shuffle up for game two. You practice solid fundamentals, and before long the match is tied 1-1. On the draw for the deciding game, your opponent keeps his 7, your mind focuses, and you look down at the following hand:

What do you do?

Share your thoughts in the comments section of the article, because next week, when I share my thoughts on the matter, I'll award a prize to the most well-explained answer!

-Adam

Why Is Dismember So Cheap?

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There was a recent post on /r/mtgfinance in which the poster asked "Is Dismember Worth More than $1.50"?  Though the original poster offered rather little in the way of discussion, reddit user and QS reader MultipleMatrix came up with a pretty strong case arguing in favor of Dismember's upside.  The post is below, edited and formatted for better readability.  Thanks a ton to MultipleMatrix for such a thorough analysis! For reference:

There was an error retrieving a chart for dismember

Compare Dismember to two cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for path to exile
There was an error retrieving a chart for Slaughter Pact

Path to Exile

Both cost 1CMC (with the option of Dismember costing 1-3 at your discretion)

Both cards remove Phyrexian Obliterator and indestructible creatures with no trouble.
Path to Exile requires one to be playing white somewhere in the mana base, while Dismember does not care what mana you use to pay it as long as you have life. That means it's removal for green, red, blue, decks as well as black. It breaks the color pie for any color and gives modern non-black decks effective removal.

Path to Exile gives your opponent a basic. It could help ramp them, but often they may not even have a basic to play so it's a tiny downside. Dismember costs 2 life for each non-black mana you use.

Path to Exile has been reprinted in a variety of sets. Dismember has also been reprinted a couple of times. However, because of the mechanics of Phyrexian mana those reprints all occurred within block and are unlikely to happen again.

Slaughter Pact

No initial cost, can play while tapped out requires the use of black mana, meaning decks need to be part black.

Can auto-lose you the game in sanctioned events if some weird interaction occurs or you simply forget to pay. (It's happened before to professional players)

Only playable on turn 3 or later.

Only hits non-black creatures and modern is filled with black decks.

As the format grows, more colors will start seeing their time in the sun and a strictly colorless removal spell will be necessary.

Given these reasons, I'd say Dismember could plateau somewhere between Slaughter Pact and Path to Exile.


Well, I'm convinced. I'm not sure it's got any a basis for an immediate spike (it really doesn't) but I can see it being one of "those" uncommons that slowly creep up over time. Until you fish one out of a bulk box and ask yourself, "when the hell did Dismember become a $5 card"?

What do you think? Agree? Disagree?

Buying Collections? You’re Doing It Right

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QS Insider @brotha52 posted a  response to Mike Lanigan's "Collection-Buying 101" article with a link to something he wrote last year about buying collections.   He wrote the article for the website for his LGS, Oasis Games, while he was making an epic cross-country road trip.  The highlight?  Rotisserie Chicken Dip sammiches in Chicago with Kelly.  The second-best part?

Offering $8 for a box of Magic cards.  

The actual best part?  The guy countered with a lower offer.  So, our hero spent 5 bucks and got this.

Seriously. I'd have paid 5 bucks for the Sliver Queen life counter alone.

You guys can chase the HAWT SPIKEZ and try to gamble on the Next Big Thing. I'll be over here with my bathing suit on. Why? Because I'm going over to @brotha52's house to swim in his swimming pool full of money.

Read the full article here.

Because Magic cards give you paper cuts in unspeakable places.

QS Booze Cube: Cogwork Bartender

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The QS Booze Cube is an ongoing project to support QS Insider member and all-around good guy Scott Peitzer's popular passion projectgive him some facebook likes. The Booze Cube is just for fun (and adults over the legal drinking age, ideally). Don't sell these or try to make money from them in any way. You can't buy these cards from us. If you want to give us money (and really, who doesn't?), sign up for a QS Insider subscription instead.

Cogwork Bartender

Design Goals: Replicate the draft-screwing design of the original Cogwork Librarian without making the card itself unplayable. A colorless Grizzly Bears in Cube is not generally very good, but it's a playable 23rd card. His ability to rummage away 2 cards is net loss, since you lose the Bartender as well. That's OK because between the card selection in-draft and in-game is "virtual" card advantage.

Inspiration: Cogwork Librarian

Got your own fun custom Booze Cube cards?  Make One and reply with a link to it.

Maybe we'll feature YOURS next!

[yop_poll id="2"]


Some notes: We don't try to replicate proper Magic templating language in the rules text of cards. We do this to save space and make the cards more human-readable. Remember, you're probably real drunk when you're playing and the subtleties of the Intervening-If clause may elude you.

Jason’s Alticle – No One in Town I Know

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Greetings, Vagabonds!

This Isn't the Day Your Article Is Supposed to Go Up

I know, I'm sorry about that. I have a good reason, I swear.

I Need Your Article to Make Tuesdays Bearable

Are you just saying that because you're not actually a representation of my average listener but a projection of my ego?

Don't You Mean "Id"?

As a projection of my ego, you should know that I don't know the difference and the Wikipedia article about it was confusing.

…

Hey actual readers, the ones who don't talk back, I'm sorry my article was late this week. Normally when someone's article is late, they don't draw attention to it. It goes up a few days later, they pretend that was the plan all along.

I can only assume afterward they drive off in a convertible wearing sunglasses with a hot girl in a bikini riding shotgun to go drop ecstasy at a secret warehouse rave or drink champagne while screaming at people from a limo, or whatever it is cool people do when they get away with something.

I'm not about all that. The coolest thing I can do is cop to getting my article in super late and not trying to pretend I always go up a different day because I have a super good excuse.

I was in Montreal partying my ass off.

.....

At the GP. I was at the GP. And the plan was to go up there to be social, not play in the event. But my intentions for making the trip nonwithstanding, the point I want to emphasize applies to any trip you make for this children's card game of ours. That point is that there needs to be a plan.

Would you like to know the best part? You don't have to come up with the plan or even take an active role in its creation. You don't even have to know the plan. My article is late because I didn't know the plan and other than that, nothing bad happened. Mostly. More on that later.

The Plan

Canada is really big, guys. Despite the fact that 75% of Canadians live within 100 miles of the US border, Canada is still quite large latitudinally. That isn't a word. Longitudinally is a word and latitudinally isn't? Laterally? Canada is long, y'all. Like as long as or longer than the US.

So when you hear an event is in Canada and you live in Michigan, you might think "score, let's drive." That works out really well if the event is in Toronto. Such was the case last December and that was totally the play.

However, this is not then and once I arrived in Toronto, I was not able to spike it in the end zone and proclaim, "bring on the poutine and bitches," because Montreal is way east of Toronto.

I had a few options when I got to Toronto. I could keep driving, which would require me to keep driving. This did not appeal to me. Another option was to take an expensive flight from Toronto to Montreal. This also did not appeal to me.

Luckily another option arose when both "plane" and "automobile" were eliminated from the running.

GP Drunk Train

I am possessed of enough self awareness to fully comprehend that no one over 16 is impressed with other people's drunk stories. People in their 20s pretend to care but they are really waiting to tell their own drunk stories because they think theirs are more interesting.

People older than their 20s (me, soon) aren't impressed. People older than their 70s probably don't like hearing about drinking because it reminds them they have to pee every 45 minutes. Seriously, what's up with that?

I am going to tell you about the plan anyway, because while you don't care about drinking stories, probably, the plan was to draft the booze cube on a leisurely train cruise from Toronto to Montreal with members of Brainstorm Brewery, The Eh Team, Heavy Meta and their friends. Ryan and I picked up podcast cohost Marcel at the airport and drove to Toronto.

Stay In Toronto Thursday Night

Planning - 6.5/10. The plan was to stay at the house of QS writing alumnus and Toronto native Ryan Abcede. Ryan lived outside the city, so we'd have to leave his place pretty early to make the train to Montreal and that sounded loose. Ryan wanted to take us to his favorite breakfast spot before the train, which required getting up even earlier. Planned by Ryan Abcede.

Execution - 3/10 I didn't sleep that night so I was ready to drive at 6 AM since I was still awake. The diner had pretty poor poutine and service, but apparently the apple pie milkshakes Ryan recommended that no one (even he) ordered probably made the place worth it and it serves us right for getting poutine for breakfast like a tourist.

GP Drunk Train

Planning - 9/10. Sounded awesome. I like the Booze Cube, and was looking to avenge my third place finish in the original challenge for a playmat. We even got a special mat to give away as a prize on the train ride. Planned by the Eh Team's Jeremy Schofield.

mat

Execution - 1/10. We were not allowed to drink the beer that was brewed for the occasion.

IPA 

Also, only one block of seats faced other seats and the car was filled with other people who had no interest in our shenanigans. The train was charging $6 for a can of beer. The tray tables were too small to game on.

Also, the seats could totally be swiveled to face each other, but we didn't realize that until there was a half hour left on the train ride back to Toronto on Monday. It was a blowout on wheels. Still, we had a plan, and a plan is better than a shotgun blast to the face.

Dinner at Pied Du Cochon

Planning - 9/10. Awww yiss. Sweet Montreal-specific gourmet food. The Eh Team's KYT planned this, so obviously it was going to be the jam.

Execution - N/A. I was too tired to go to the restaurant, so Bushard and I durdled in the hotel room. A late luncheon at 3 Brasseurs had left me feeling sated.

That excursion was planned by Montreal native Martin Brunet and while it was no Pied du Cochon, the poutine was better than the breakfast joint and the A&W at a rest stop on the highway. Letting Canadian people plan this trip and not arguing with them was getting there.

poutine

Jason seepy
Jason seepy.

20 minutes of sleep on the train punctuated by people laughing at me was not enough, and while others feasted on tete du cochon and visage du cochon and probably even pieds du cochon, I slumbered in a hotel bed like a boss.

I have the conch!
I have the conch!

Play EDH and Sell Cards Instead of the Main Event

Planning - 10/10 Planned by yours, truly.

Execution - 10/10. It was starting to look like going with the flow was getting there.

Lunch at Pho Restaurant

Planning - 5/10. Magic players playing in a ton of different events and getting involved in stuff when a group wants to leave is like herding cats. Finally, a group of three trekked to get Pho and left everyone else to their own devices. Planned by Quebec native and Podcast listener Dominic Luong.

Execution - 9.5/10. Dom, despite not living in Montreal, has visited frequently and his Vietnamese father has taken him out for Pho in town so he knew exactly where to go. I don't remember the name of the place, but I remember how to walk there so I guess it's for me to know and you to never find out. Tag along with me next time. No, I didn't take a picture of the Pho. What is this, Instagram?

Mana Deprived Party

Planning - 8/10. DJ Spruke spinning in a hot Montreal Nightclub, Mana Deprived fans and Magic Pros everywhere? Bottle Service? Should be fun. Planned by KYT.

Execution - N/A. Wait a minute! I don't want to go to a nightclub. Luckily for me, they took one look at how Ryan was dressed and gave the whole group a "no, sir". Martin Brunet apparently got everyone in after Ryan, Marcel and I bounced, but I didn't hear any stories that made me wish I'd gotten in. I could hear Spruke from outside, anyway.

I managed to find Montreal's (probably) only Mexican restaurant and ordered the first rocks margarita they have served since they opened a decade ago. Seriously, who gets a frozen margarita? Pair that with the sick carnitas burrito that wasn't on the menu and I taught a room full of Montreal residents how to order Mexican food. Very douchebaggily.

Eat at Subway

Planning - 9/10. Shit yeah. I love Subway. Planned by yours truly.

Execution - 10/10. Subway in Canada has these weird multicolored peppers that are way better than the regular banana peppers in American Subway.

Actual Execution - Loose/10. Canadian Subway is super expensive. They have a $5 footlong, but it's just lettuce. I paid way too much for Subway, and literally seconds after I finished eating my sub, Marcel, Scotty Mac from the Eh Team and Matty Studios from Heavy Meta finished winning their team sealed event.

Nice Brainstorm Brewery shirt, Marcel

 

They wanted to celebrate winning nine boxes by going out to dinner.

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I am not pictured in this group shot of the victory dinner at La Banquise because I ate an $8 footlong. I broke my number one rule of travel, which is "Don't eat somewhere you can eat back home," and suffered a major blowout.

Stick to the plan, guys, even if you don't know the plan, you have no cell phone service in a foreign country and therefore can't be apprised of the plan and want to make your own plan. You'll end up chowing down 12 inches of failure by yourself.

Drink a Bunch of Beer in the Hotel Room

Planning - 9/10. We didn't really know about bringing beer back with us and wanted to share it with our friends, anyway. Planned by unanimous.

Execution - 9.999999/10. Hotel maids hate this plan.

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Karaoke on St. Patty's Day

Planning - 7/10. St. Patty's Day? This has a 30% chance of ending with me fending off a crowd of angry sorority girls who didn't like my "sarcastic" and "mean-spirited" rendition of "All the Single Ladies" with a broken beer bottle. Planned by KYT.

Execution - 10/10. Beer was expensive compared to America but cheap compared to Toronto. Montrealers bought me beer all night. I didn't head out intending to be cheap but people kept handing me beers and encouraging me to imbibe them.

I've learned to go along with plans by this point in the weekend. Martin Brunet and I have a very pleasant conversation about hockey for two people who are essentially screaming at each other to be heard over a version of "Hot Hot Hot" being slurred by a guy in a Hollister t-shirt. Someone threw up.

It was this guy
It was this guy.

Someone was hoisted bodily and physically excluded from the establishment. It was an awesome night.

Eat at a Place Called "Hockey Sushi"

Planning - ?/10. Ryan Abcede hadn't steered us wrong yet. When everyone disembarked the train in Toronto, we went to a sports bar called "Real Sports" which was expensive and had terrible service. Ryan decided to audible and told Marcel, Ryan and me to order an appetizer instead of an entree and we'd jam some all-you-can-eat sushi near his place.

Execution - 11/10. Hockey sushi is named poorly, but that is literally the only complaint. This was the most reasonably priced meal I got in all of Canada and it was also the best.

Green Onions taste too healthy - wrap them in steak
Green Onions taste too healthy--wrap them in steak.

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Those are Tempura fried bananas in that ice cream. This is how food is done.

Run Back Hockey Sushi

Planning - 10/10. Planned by Marcel who wanted to run it back and check out the half-price all you can eat lunch menu.

Execution - This was the play, and a great capper to our trip.

Trips of Years Past

I have done a GP in Montreal before, and it was so bad I swore I'd never go back. All of the restaurants near the convention center close at 9 PM and there seemed to be little to do but go back to the hotel. It would have been nice to stay in Toronto on the way back so we didn't have to Iron Man a ten hour drive, but spending money on a hotel Sunday night never felt like the play so the drive turned into a horrible slog.

Compare that with this trip where we had an exciting place to go to eat two meals a day, a few comfortable train rides in between Toronto and Montreal, plenty of people to hang out with and Montreal locals making suggestions about where to go instead of flying blind with no knowledge of the city and no internet access. GP Montreal 2012 was legit dildos and the major difference this time around was having a plan going in.

Trips of Years Future

The QS forums have a section for "QS meetups" and I feel like the section is under-utilized and to poor effect. Stop not posting there, folks. If there is a GP or SCG Open or otherwise major event coming to your city, post in there with suggestions.

People want to go eat at cool places, they want to do some sight-seeing occasionally, they want to know places to avoid and places to avoid avoiding. Schedule something and people will come, because being in a strange city without a plan is no fun and it's much better to be with a group, even if no one knows any better than anyone else.

Too many Magic trips have been spent where I only saw the inside of a hotel and a convention center despite being at major North American cities that are cultural hubs. If you're traveling to Kansas City to eat Burger King and not BBQ, going to Indianapolis to eat Buffalo Wild Wings and not grilled tenderloin or going to Montreal to eat a Subway $%&*ing sammich instead of getting Montreal's best poutine, you're doing it wrong.

Want some help getting started? Fine.

GP Cincinnatti is this weekend. Are you going? Great. I may or may not go, but regardless, Saturday night after the last round of the main event assemble a group of my readers at the judge's station. You're going across the river and eating at the Pepper Pod and you're ordering the goetta and then you're going here. Then you can go to your hotel room and durdle.

It literally took me five minutes with a computer to figure out, but I bet a few of you do it, because why not? It's easier when someone makes a plan. I don't even have to go to the event to make a plan.

Talk about how you'll identify each other in the "GP Cinci" thread in the "meetups" section of the forum. QS writer Sigmund Ausfresser will be there and after you've introduced yourself you can ask him if he has any recommendations. Go see the city you're in a little bit (ironic because I mentioned two places to go in Kentucky, across the river from Cinci) and meet some other insiders.

Another recommendation I have is using social media to find out who else is going and make plans. The Twitter hashtag for the event is a good place to find people asking questions and talking about the event, and Facebook is another great resource.

An empty seat in your car, unclaimed pull-out couches and floor space in your hotel and empty spots in a taxi are waste and waste is literally lost money. Find someone from your local area who needs a ride (there will be people) or a place to crash and get full value out of the trip.

Make some new friends, go to dinner with strangers, play EDH with someone you barely know, meet some QS Insiders or people who like the same podcast as you. We're all part of the same big community, after all, so it's not like any of us are truly strangers.

Not after we've all seen each other's buttcracks.

 

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: Collection Buying 101

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As a man of many hats, I am more than just a competitive player. Playing in Grand Prix and PTQs will always be amazing but I also am passionate about the financial side of the game. One of the reasons I was able to start attending these competitive events was because of the work I did making some money from Magic. The best way to make money in Magic is through flipping collections. For many years now, I have been buying and selling collections. It is one of the most exciting things you can do in Magic. Looking through all of someone’s cards is like peeking back in time and getting a glimpse of what Magic meant to that person. Everyone’s collection is unique. I’ve bought collections where every card was in an Ultra Pro Sleeve, where every card was in a binder, or of course where they’ve had an obsession with a creature type (usually angels or goblins). No matter how big or small the collection, looking through all of their cards is like Christmas morning. Sorting through their commons and uncommons is like digging for buried treasure.

How do I find a collection to buy?

Sourcing collections is the most challenging part of the equation. I’ve had good success on Craigslist. Although  some postings are a waste of time, the majority of them are legitimate. If you are truly interested in pursuing collection-buying, you must accept that once in a while you will be on a wild goose chase and come up empty-handed. The times when you acquire a collection make it worth all your effort. Some entrepreneurs try their luck on Ebay, but I wouldn’t recommend it. For every legitimate collection, there are a dozen that are just a dealer or trader packaging their extra junk as a "collection".  These are usually "cards found in my brother's basement" or something similar.

A lot of these listings contain photographs of a few expensive cards, but the lot likely contains little else.  Sure you might be obtaining a Demonic Tutor in the lot, but anything else not shown or specifically mentioned is unlikely to be valuable. It’s unfortunate that this is the case because there are people trying to sell collections on Ebay that have many amazing things in them and they don’t get the attention they deserve because of practices like these.

Though sourcing collections is difficult, you will start to develop a reputation once you've done a few deals in your area. Over the years I have bought many collections that were referred to me by a friend of a friend or through some string of acquaintances. Once you are known as someone who buys cards, more people will come to you on your own and you will have to do less work tracking down the cards. At this point in my life, I own a shop with my buddy so I have an even easier time acquiring collections. Apparently , if you run a store that buys and sells Magic cards, former players will swing by with their old cards and ask you to take them off their hands. Honestly, I thought this was an urban legend, but it is apparently true. We have had the shop open since October of last year and this has happened to us a number of times.

How do you price a collection?

Sometimes the owner of the collection has nailed down a price they think their collection is worth. From experience, they rarely know what they are talking about. Collections are overvalued because of the amount of time and money it took to put them together. People think that because they invested hundreds of dollars or more that they should be able to get all of that back out when they sell. The harsh reality is that it doesn’t work out that way the majority of the time. There will be times when the purchase price is too low, but most of the time, it’s on the high end rather than the low. With the explosion of the Modern format and the flourishing Legacy format, collections will tend to be worth more money than they have in the past.

Settling on a price can be tricky, but if you have been reading and following the advice of other columnists on this site, you are on the right track. The trick is to have a base knowledge about the financial side of Magic and have a general sense of how much most cards are worth. Trading and buying cards regularly develops the skills you need in order to price a collection. There will always be cards that you over or under price, but what I’ve found is that knowing how much most cards buylist for is an invaluable tool. Add up in your head the approximate amount you can get for each important card and then add in five dollars per thousand commons and uncommons they have. You can always flip bulk commons and uncommons to a dealer for around that amount so it’s a safe way to help you reach the amount the owner will be satisfied with.

Trader Tools was built with this process in mind.  It aggregates a few of the most reliable buy lists and can give you a running up-to-date total of what the collection is worth.

One key point to remember is that if you are paying them on the spot, even if they are not getting the amount they think they should, money is money. Be firm and honest with the price you offer. Pay as much as you can but make sure you will be able to profit from the collection. If you develop a reputation of paying a fair amount for collections you will have more come your way. The first person you rip off will destroy your reputation and it will be much harder to continue this profitable hobby.

So you bought a collection, now what?

Step One: sort the rares. Some collections will have a binder of rares which will make this first step much easier. Other collections will have all the rares in a box or maybe even mixed in with all the rest of the cards. What you want to do is get all the rares that are worth something in the same place. In short, separate the real rares from the bulk rares. Some of these you may want to keep for your own personal collection but keep in mind that everything you pull from the collection is one less card to help you make money on your purchase.  Again, Trader Tools is your friend here.

Step Two: sort the commons and uncommons. This step is crucial to helping you make money on every collection you buy. Picking the bulk is an art form that takes practice and constant maintenance to maintain. Cards change in price as they are reprinted or the demand for them increases or decreases. Familiarizing yourself every once in a while with the price of these types of cards will help you pull the valuable cards from the bulk. There are many obvious cards that get pulled out immediately like Modern and Legacy playable cards, but there are also many that are worth money you may never have known.  If your collection is at all sorted by set, use Trader Tools and do a search by edition.  Filter out cards under 0.10, and get acquainted with what commons and uncommons actually sell to vendors.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Natural Order
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancient Tomb

If you follow me on Twitter, I have been posting a #CollectionReport of the latest and greatest from my recent acquisition. The interesting part about this collection is that every card in it is pre-Modern. I’ve never bought a collection that was solely old cards. Through this process I have discovered much about these older sets that I didn’t know, like what every common looks like from Invasion. Most of them are, sadly, totally worthless.  You’ll have that when you look through 3000 Invasion commons though. Sorting this collection made me realize that this might be the best collection I’ve ever bought. Never again will I be able to pull Natural Order, Intuition, or Ancient Tomb from the bulk commons and uncommons. Looking through 35k cards was the most exciting thing I’ve done in a long time because I found so many hidden gems littered throughout them.

The commons and uncommons contain not only constructed playable cards but casual cards that are worth money as well. In order to get the most from this collection, I took a couple hours and scoured buylists for hidden gems like Victimize. There are plenty of cards like that and you can profit from them. Here is a good starting point for cards you probably know to pull.

Easy to Identify

There are many other cards dealers will buy that are not so easy to identify.

Harder to Identify

Finally, make sure you skim through the lands in the collection. You never know when there will be some Beta basics or the ultimate find, Guru lands.  There are often non-basic lands buried in the land box.

I love buying and selling collections. For years I have helped friends out when they needed money or tracked down people uninterested with this game they used to play. If you have the chance, try your hand at it. You may find you are better at it than you think. If you read articles on this site, you already have the basic skills you will need. If you have questions about collection buying, I'm always available in the comments or on twitter. Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force on Modern!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Joy of Cubing: Trying to Find a Balance

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DIRECT LINK - Joy of Cubing Episode 22 – Trying to Find a Balance

 The boys are at it again to bring you another exciting episode of Joy of Cubing! On top of regularly scheduled segments some of the user submitted topics include talking about the mysterious Conspiracy set and what it means for card design space as well as a discussion of trying to make specific mechanics work in your cube.

 Topics for this week are:

 #conspiracy

#cutsnutsbuts

#forcedmarch

#confusion in the blanks

We would again like to thank Affinity for Cards, who has a pretty sweet deal going on for their loyal customers. Do you like getting rewarded for consistent service and loyalty? Than this is for you! Listen in for the details.

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As always, feedback on the show is encouraged, send us your topics to discuss!

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Joy of Cubing

The Joy of Cubing is a cast focusing on all things cube- from MTGO cube to powered, unpowered, and themed cubes.

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Rival’s Duel: Made Just For Me

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Play

WotC is making cards designed for multiplayer. Is this actually good for Commander? They also answer a bunch of reader emails, as well as tease something bigger that is coming.

0:00-11:52 Introductions and News

Rival’s Duel has a facebook page. Check out facebook.com/rivalsduel for even more Eric and Nole.

11:53-28:16 Reader Mailbag

The e-mails keep coming and they keep responding. This episode, in this episode, Eric and Nole take on Shroud vs. Hexproof, artifact vs. creature mana, the amount of basics you should be playing in your commander deck, and sealing the deal with aggro decks.

28:16-44:58 “I know your trying to help, but…”

It is obvious that WotC likes creating cards for multiplayer. Especially in recent years, cards like the gatecrash Primordials or the multiplayer releases show that WotC sees a need to support multiplayer magic. However, the topic of the day is whether or not these cards are actually good for the format. Eric says the they are not good, due to the fact that they are never well balanced, whereas Nole thinks that, even when they are bad, the fact that they exist means that Wizards cares about this demographic and that on its own is valuable. What do you think? Let us know in the comments below.

44:59-End Closing and Outro

Contact Eric at ericbonvie@gmail.com // @thatbonvieGuy

Contact Nole at noleclauson@gmail.com // @MtGNole

The RSS feed for Rival’s Duel is feeds.feedburner.com/rivalsduel

Like us on Facebook @ Facebook.com/rivalsduel

Thanks for Listening!!!

Rival's Duel

Rival's Duel

Rival’s Duel is a Bi-weekly Podcast that pits Eric Bonvie, stand-up comic and self-proclaimed Commander “Bad Boy” against Nole Clauson, enforcer, judge, and juror of the EDH social contract and all around good guy. Every episode, these two talk about the newest happenings in commander, as well as pick a topic that they disagree upon and fight it out between themselves. This is all interwoven with a great deal of self-deprecating humor and terrible puns.

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Coalition Victory: GP Richmond!

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Play

GP Richmond finally happened!  The team showed up in force and had a blast playing in the main event and some of the side events.  Hear how all the prep and testing fared for the team.

You can follow the team on their Twitter accounts!

  • Team Twitter @VictoryCast
  • John Walls @oSeabass
  • Jaime D’Agostino @Damaddoc
  • Blaine Toups @blainetoups
  • Ford Wheaton @FordWheaton

You can watch John and some of the team stream on Twitch at twitch.tv/oSeabass208.

Email any questions, concerns, feedback, etc. to the teams email:  CoalitionVictoryMTG@gmail.com

Coalition Victory

Coalition Victory

Team Victory brings their thoughts on a number of different Magic topics and news stories weekly. Having different Magic skill sets allows the team to shine an interesting light and have fun conversations about almost any Magic topic.

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Constructed Criticism: Don’t Compound Your Mistakes

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This week the guys take an in depth look at the modern format and there opinions on the different decks.  Compounding mistakes is something we’ve probably all done from time to time and can lose us games, Spencer, Matt, and Casey discuss what it means to compound mistakes and how we can avoid this going forward.

@thewitchkling

@spencer13h

@ccbloodthirst

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Constructed Criticism

Spencer is a PTQ grinder and Host of the Constructed Criticism Podcast

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At Your End Step: Distractions: A GP Cincinnati Story

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In this episode of At Your End Step, the team takes a quick glance at the “Crackgate” scandal as it has developed since GP Richmond.  Each host gets his own minute to describe his take on the situation and it must be explicity stated that each person’s opinion is his own entirely and does not reflect the opinion of any At Your End Step sponsors.

After quickly mentioning the recent community news, the team takes to discussing GP Montreal and looking at the limited environment.

GP Buenos Aires and SCG Open Seattle are prime bits of focus for this weeks discussion as Mike and Morgan prepare to head out to Grand Prix Cincinnati and battle for blood, guts, and glory.  What are the fellas playing down in the Natti?  What are their goals and what is their perception of the current metagame?

At Your End Step

At Your End Step

At Your End Step is a podcast dedicated to discussing competitive Magic: The Gathering and all news relevant to the MTG Community. At Your End Step is worth a listen if you care about competitive standard, PTQ formats, and general MTG news/information. Hilarity will surely ensue in each episode as the team attempts to wind its way through the life of a grinder.

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