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Standard: You Haven’t Seen This Before

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It seems hard to believe that after all this time pairing Innistrad block with newly printed Return to Ravnica sets that players would still be innovating in this format.

There are more playable cards in each set now than ever before. Going forward, unless Wizards has a major change in philosophy, Standard will continue to be ripe for brewing. Even if you think you have exhausted all of your creative resources, there are still more possibilities. Even if all you do is change two card slots in a major deck, that could take the deck to the next level.

Take Jund for example. This deck has been a powerhouse for most of the time since Return to Ravnica was introduced to the format. When M14 becomes legal though, the legend rule change might shake things up more than expected. What if someone decided to play both Garruk Relentless and Garruk, Primal Hunter in Jund because the new rule lets you upgrade (or downgrade) your planeswalkers. That would be a major innovation! I still have no clue whether or not that is good enough, but the possibility has intrigued me since I heard about the rules change.

Before I get to M14 next week, I have some adventure filled deck lists to share with you.

One Combo Out, One Combo In

Until this week, I thought that I'd played every version of Aristocrats. It's no secret that I like some aristocratic action. Whether it be RWB, GWB, or changing up the card selection in one of those versions, I've battled many opponents with all different versions of the decks.

This week I have been working on Angel of Glory's Rise and I thought, what if I put it into an Aristocrats shell? It would be great. I can aggro some opponents out with a fast curve, and then if the game goes late get that angel online to finish them off. This line of thought brought to you by the committee to bring down the Jund menace. Currently I'm the only member, but you're welcome to join.

Seriously though, I cannot seem to beat Jund. No matter what deck I decide to play, even if the Jund match up is decent, I have been failing to beat that deck all season. Humans Reanimator is the best deck to fight against Jund, but it's wildly inconsistent. This was my attempt to streamline that deck. Take a look.

Aggro Reanimator

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish
4 Doomed Traveler
3 Cathedral Sanctifier
4 Cartel Aristocrat
2 Skirsdag High Priest
3 Blood Artist
4 Fiend Hunter
3 Falkenrath Aristocrat
3 Angel of Glory's Rise

Spells

3 Faithless Looting
3 Unburial Rites

Lands

4 Cavern of Souls
4 Godless Shrine
4 Sacred Foundry
3 Blood Crypt
4 Isolated Chapel
2 Clifftop Retreat
2 Dragonskull Summit
1 Vault of the Archangel

This deck turned out to be sweet. There are plenty of possible aggressive draws involving Champion of the Parish, but you can also play a more midrange game with Fiend Hunter and Falkenrath Aristocrat. The ability to make a turn three 5/5 flyer is still present so you will get some free wins with that interaction.

What I like best is that Faithless Looting smooths your draws when you are uncertain what your plan to go for. Often it's not a good idea to go all in on the reanimation plan. Try to kill them with any other line of play first and then use the Angel combo as a back-up late game plan.

You don't fill your graveyard as much with this version as the full-on combo deck did, so keep that in mind when you are trying to reanimate. Unburial Rites can just be used for value as well to return whichever creature you need for the situation you've found yourself in.

Interestingly, lands are in important resource in this deck. Often you have the choice to discard them when you loot. This leads to a decision tree where you need to balance the need for aggression with the ability to hard cast Angel in the late game. It's a delicate balance, so tread lightly.

Looks Can be Deceiving

Don't skip over this deck list or you will miss some intricate differences. Can you spot the stand-out cards that differ from every other deck list?

UWR Aggro Control

Untitled Deck

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage
3 Geist of Saint Traft
3 Boros Reckoner
3 Restoration Angel
2 Aurelia the Warleader

Spells

4 Thought Scour
3 Pillar of Flame
2 Boros Charm
2 Izzet Charm
2 Azorius Charm
2 Syncopate
1 Feeling of Dread
1 Harvest Pyre
1 Skullcrack
1 Sphinx's Revelation
2 Detention Sphere
1 Warleader's Helix

Lands

4 Steam Vents
4 Sacred Foundry
3 Hallowed Fountain
4 Sulfur Falls
3 Glacial Fortress
3 Clifftop Retreat
1 Mountain
1 Moorland Haunt
1 Slayers' Stronghold

If I hadn't given you a heads up, you may have skipped right over this deck. After all, it's just UWR right? Did you see the maindeck Boros Charms though!?

My goal here was to focus on how impressed I have been with Geist of Saint Traft lately. Obviously this is a multi-format powerhouse and one of the best three-cost creatures in the game, but from my perspective, this legendary creature has taken a drastic dip in play. After playing with him again in the Izzet Blitz deck, I saw how unprepared my opponents were and how easily he closed games. There are 16 ways to protect your Geist in this deck and that's not counting Snapcaster Mage!

Unlike many of the other versions of UWR running around the format, this is an aggro-control deck. The way this deck plays is very similar to the Modern deck I modeled it after. You have some early aggression that's backed up by counters and burn. This deck gives you many ways to win as well as the ability to interact with your opponent's game plan. On top of the pile of burn, you have a ton of interactions that can win the game for you seemingly out of nowhere. Here's a short list.

Boros Reckoner + [Card]Harvest Pyre/[Card] is usually ten or more damage!

Boros Reckoner + Boros Charm + Azorius Charm + any damage to him gives you infinite life!

End of turn Restoration Angel, then play Aurelia on your turn for twelve damage!

There are tons of different lines of play and many different avenues that will lead you to victory. Choose wisely.

Going Deep into the Graveyard

While playing with Izzet Blitz, I took note of the insane amount of cards you can see with both Faithless Looting and Izzet Charm. Although I chose to cut Izzet Charm, I replaced it with a split spell that's even better. Once you have all those cards in the graveyard, you can gain such an advantage especially if some of them have flashback. When you are discarding cards that flashback, you are ending up with more cards instead of down a card like typical looting effects would normally leave you. Dive into this crazy deck list with me!

Loot your way to victory

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Boros Reckoner
4 Angel of Serenity

Spells

4 Faithless Looting
4 Thought Scour
4 Breaking // Entering
3 Pillar of Flame
2 Harvest Pyre
3 Feeling of Dread
4 Lingering Souls
4 Unburial Rites

Lands

4 Steam Vents
4 Sulfur Falls
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Glacial Fortress
2 Blood Crypt
2 Dragonskull Summit
2 Godless Shrine
2 Isolated Chapel

Wow, is that a crazy mana base or what! Despite it being a four-color mana base, it is reasonably consistent. You have twelve sources of your main colors, blue and red, and eight of white and black. With your ability to filter through cards, you gain even more consistency. On top of your four color craziness, you can still cast Boros Reckoner every time you have three mana, which is only a little mind blowing.

What's the point of this pile? I'm not saying this deck is going to win the next Grand Prix or anything, but you do have many routes to victory. It is completely feasible to kill your opponent from twenty by casting Harvest Pyre on your Boros Reckoner. Sometimes you have that many cards in your graveyard.

You also have the powerful Angel of Despair replacement that you can reanimate to decimate your opponents field. There are also a number of cards in the deck specifically designed to slow down your opponent until you can find and assemble a combo. Usually you won't kill your opponent with one of the combos, just give you the opportunity to defeat them. There is not as much graveyard hate as you think there is in the format right now and this deck is designed to take advantage of that fact. Plus, milling yourself is pretty fun sometimes.

That's all for me this week guys. Hopefully this article is proof that you should never stop trying to work on a format. Even when you are coming down the final stretch of a format's life, there are still new ideas to try. M14 seems poised to shake up the format a bit, but only time will tell how much of an impact these new core set cards will have. Next week I'll break down the new cards and tell you all about the great ones as well as the hidden gems you might not have considered.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Creative Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

(Going Deep) Into the Maze

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Last week I mentioned that I gave up on building a Maze's End deck for a number of reasons. There are quite a few notable weaknesses with the deck, not the least of which being that you probably want to be 2-3 colors with Guildgates spanning every color. My largest concern had to do with Acidic Slime or Nephalia Drownyard knocking one of your gates out and making it literally impossible to win. Or so I thought.

A few days ago I was playing a two-man when my opponent lead on Selesnya Guildgate and played a turn two Elixir of Immortality. Apparently this card is Standard legal. I don't think that it solves the Acidic Slime problem by any stretch of the imagination, but it's about as good as we're going to get when it comes to cards which combat Nephalia Drownyard.

Sadly this only addresses one of the deck's major problems. Acidic Slime is likely to beat the deck on the fact that it's LD alone, and I'm still not convinced that Maze's End can realistically beat a Sire of Insanity, but for today I'm going to ignore those problems. I've been chatting with Chris Kronenberger quite a bit lately and his fire to do something different reignited something in me that makes me want to jam a hopeless deck just to say that I did. Now, I'm not as much of a dreamer as Chris (he wants to play Talrand, Sky Summoner in Legacy...) but chatting with somebody with a different perspective than you can often be quite refreshing. If he's that willing to lose in Legacy, I should be at least as willing to lose in Standard.

After spending some time tweaking decklists and playing two-mans I've landed on the version of Maze's End that I would play, were I so inclined. Testing has been very minimal and my endgame for this deck is probably just FNMs, but if you've ever enjoyed a turbo-fog type strategy then this might be your new Standard pony:

David Bowie Reference

spells

1 Elixir of Immortality
4 Fog
4 Feeling of Dread
4 Think Twice
4 Augur of Bolas
4 Supreme Verdict
4 Urban Evolution
4 Terminus
3 Sphinx's Revelation

lands

2 Azorius Guildgate
4 Hallowed Fountain
1 Dimir Guildgate
1 Rakdos Guildgate
1 Gruul Guildgate
1 Selesnya Guildgate
4 Temple Garden
1 Orzhov Guildgate
1 Golgari Guildgate
3 Breeding Pool
1 Simic Guildgate
1 Izzet Guildgate
1 Boros Guildgate
1 Island
1 Forest
4 Maze's End

As a quick note, I'm very far from 100% on this manabase. I haven't really had mana issues with the deck but I think this is more indicative of minimal testing than anything else. I've shifted around the two drop slot quite a bit and I'm uncertain if I've fully adapted to what is in the list at this point. Initially the deck was dramatically more green and the need for green mana early was much higher. At this stage green has become the splash color and I really don't know how many of the duals need to produce green mana, so definitely feel free to mess with that.

Anyhow, let's get down to brass tacks. The fogs, the wraths, the big draw spells are pretty well non-negotiable staples. For the most part divergences in the deck deal with which early drops you want to play and whether or not you want to play alternate win conditions.

Filler: INS

Think Twice

The utility of this one is fairly self-explanatory. It's really about as good as cheap card draw gets in this format. Splitting the draws, as we all know, makes it play particularly well with Terminus. From my testing I've been much happier with these card drawing spells than I have with spells that produce mana or find lands, as it takes actually drawing your wraths to enable you to win games.

Augur of Bolas

I initially had Gatecreeper Vine in this slot, but with a 28 land deck I really wasn't struggling to make land drops. As I stated on Think Twice you need to find your actual spells if you want to win games, and Augur digs you three deeper towards doing so. He's right at home in such a spell-heavy deck.

Feeling of Dread

I initially included Feeling of Dread in the deck for synergy with Mulch, but have kept it in even since cutting the self-mill plan. I prefer it to something like Moonmist because barring Lingering Souls decks or some flavor of Garruk you generally only need to deal with two-ish creatures. In the scenarios where Feeling does all the work of a fog it also has the benefit of being able to do what it does twice, which is a pretty big deal when your deck spends most of its time doing nothing. It is absolutely weaker against hexproof creatures, but I would hope that our 8 wraths can carry their weight in that matchup.

Elixir of Immortality

More often than not, five life is less than a fog will gain you. Elixir is also a miss for Augur. That said, it's going to be our only maindeck way to beat having our gates destroyed/milled. The card is a far cry from impressive, but it has a relevant job and I don't believe there to be better options. If only Life from the Loam were legal... And on that note, I would love Exploration (even just Explore!, but now I'm getting sidetracked.

Filler: OUTS

Rampant Growth and Chromatic Lantern

Initially I thought that a deck that was trying to activate a four mana ability every turn would want some sort of mana acceleration, but upon testing this theory I found that this just lead to having too many cards in the deck that were just mana. Drawing extra cards and hitting land drops naturally has worked out dramatically better in my testing. Even with the acceleration the deck doesn't really win any faster. Just drawing and playing gates does as much towards winning the game as activating Maze's End does, and even on the turns when we do activate Maze Fog and Feeling of Dread come at very cheap rates. I haven't ever found myself wanting for these cards.

Mulch

I was pretty excited about Mulch when I first included it in the deck. It helps find Maze's End and any Think Twice or Feeling of Dread milled is a nice bonus. In practice I wasn't ever really missing land drops, I was rarely getting this self-mill value and it had the same problem that Farseek did in terms of leaving the deck too mana-heavy.

Gatecreeper Vine

Have I ever told you about how this deck doesn't need just a bunch of mana effects? The worst thing about Gatecreeper Vine is that is plays completely abysmally once you have a Maze's End. Would you rather tutor up your land drop using one of your spell slots or one of your land slots? And it just sucks at blocking. I'd probably play Wall of Blossoms, but Wall of Blossoms this is not.

Azorius Charm/Renounce the Guilds/ Literal any Spot Removal

These sorts of cards are simply off-plan. We want all of our interactive spells to be able to deal with our opponents entire team so that we can use our excess mana (in the case of fog) to activate Maze's End or leave our opponent with nothing attacking us (in the case of wraths) to buy time and generate more mana in a technical sense. Playing catchup with removal makes winning with Maze's End infinitely more difficult than just fogging when your opponent gets rolling.

Crackling Perimeter and Other Alternate Win Conditions

I've run into a few people battling versions of this deck with Crackling Perimeter and I've been wholly underwhelmed. It loses to Acidic Slime all the same as Maze's End, is extremely prohibitive to your mana production and is your single source of damage. Not to mention that barring them being destroyed redundant copies are stone blanks. It is a cute answer to Planeswalkers, but it just doesn't jive well with anything else in the deck.

I'm really not sure what other alternate win conditions one would want to include in this deck, but Maze's End is likely going to be far more difficult for opponents to interact with than any other option which will serve to dilute the [car]Maze's End[/card] plan.

~

I'm not expecting this deck to be the new hotness in Standard. Further, I don't expect the majority of players to even enjoy playing this type of Magic, but it has been a fun change of pace for me. Outside of being pretty freakin' cold to Acidic Slime and Sire of Insanity the deck has been surprisingly competitive. I 100% recommend it for something like an FNM and if I were going to an SCG Open soon I'd probably rather sleeve this up for a 10 round event than actually slog with through it all with something more conventional. PTQs are a different animal, and unless you think you've solved the Acidic Slime problem I wouldn't be at all surprised to lose to that card at least once per event.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Modern Masters — The Aftermath

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We know that the drafting of MM is not over yet, but as we are writing now, there are only 250 players in the release queue. It means that the biggest part of the MM online event is now behind us. This week we want to go over the short-term repercussions and try to predict what the next move should be from there on.

The “Collateral Damage”

For sure, MM drafts had an impact on the reprinted cards themselves. What about the other cards that see a lot of play in Modern? Remember that people who just got their new set of Tarmogoyf will want to play with them now!

The Fetchlands

First of all, look at the index of the five fetchlands from Zendikar. They have now reached a new ceiling. We predicted a while back that $10 for both Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn was a floor price, rather than a ceiling price.

Take a look at Verdant Catacombs, which sells for 16 on mtgotraders. Does green and black ring a bell to you? Demand for the fetchlands has increased and prices are possibly a little inflated. We are pretty sure that the prices will go down a bit until next Modern's season.

If you're holding fetchlands, it looks like it is time to unload. We will be on the lookout when the price comes back to normal. We will probably go deep on these when the timing feels right, even though the cost to acquire them is much higher than during the previous seasons.

Celestial Colonnade

The card is now worth 6.67! Almost 1 tix above its previous in-season ceiling! It has never reached such a high price since it rotated out of Standard. This is another card we have to follow carefully and that we might go deep on when the time is right, probably by the fall. For now, if you don’t use them, it might be time to unload before M14's release.

Legacy

MM drafts also had some impact on Legacy staples. Especially for any deck that runs Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant or Vendilion Clique.

Underground Sea is now almost 41 which is an all-time high. Bayou also reached a new ceiling of 26.30. Liliana of the Veil has gained some value, reaching 46 during the release despite the upcoming rotation. Wasteland is now almost 66.

Many players have not yet realized how much movement there has been lately, and it’s time to capitalize on that. We might have a good window with M14's release, since people will need money.

A Special Case: Thoughtseize

As we are talking now, this card is worth 24.32 but has reached 34 just after the confirmation that it was not reprinted in MM. Now that Duress has been confirmed in M14, there are good chances that Thoughtseize will be for another set. When it will be confirmed, the card might gain a few tix again. We are watching this card closely and we will try to put something on the forum as soon as we decide to move on this spec.

The Return of Standard

Now that people have gotten their draft fix, Standard is gaining in popularity again.

You need only look at the movers and shakers for this week to confirm this. Thundermaw Hellkite has gained 6 tix this week alone, Sphinx's Revelation gained 5 and Voice of Resurgence gained a little more than 4 tix.

Just as a reminder, we are now approaching the two Standard PTQs that will be held in July (July 14th and July 21st). That means it’s time to speculate on Standard!

Here are some cards we are looking for and that we think might rebound:

Huntmaster of the Fells

This card has reached its bottom in the past two weeks. Still, the card is a four-of in the Miami Grand Prix winning deck (piloted by Reid Duke) and it sees some plays in Modern Jund lists too. You can still pick some up at six on the market and since it’s a mythic from a set not much drafted, if it comes back in Standard, it could potentially see some wide price variations.

As a side note, Reid Duke is a real beast! The guy just won the Player of the Year award last year on MTGO and since he decided to play paper Magic, he is winning almost every tournament he attends.

Olivia Voldaren

Olivia is a three-of in the same deck mentioned above and she was a complete all-star during the final. She is really good versus Reanimator or against all types of midrange strategies. Watch this card as she might see one last big price jump before rotation.

Restoration Angel and Thragtusk

Yeah, we thought they were good specs before release, but now we are pretty sure they'll see a bump in price with the new vigor Standard should gain in the next 3-4 weeks.

Thragtusk is still the most played creature in Standard right now and Restoration Angel is the fourth. When people start practicing for Standard PTQs again, the demand will put pressure on the price of both cards.

If you bought them earlier, just like us, keep them and we might be able to cut a lot on the loss. If you have not yet made a move, it might be time. We believe Thragtusk is a safer move here. Try to get them around 4.5-5. We think it might reach the 7-8 range again.

That's it for this week. Feel free to comment!

Insider: Drafter’s Dilemma – What Do I Do With All These Cards? Part 1

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Being a dedicated drafter presents some interesting conflicts as a Magic player. In my case, I play very little Constructed Magic, but Draft at my LGS at least once a week. This leaves me with several hundred new cards each month, and most will likely never be played (by me) again. It can be time-consuming and overwhelming to figure out what to do with all of them. In this two-part article, I’d like to discuss some of my strategies to help you maximize value from not only the Draft, but also the Draft leftovers.

There’s No Shame in Rare Drafting

Look, I want to win every Draft I enter. Does this mean passing a Sphinx's Revelation I may open because it’s off color? No way! Opening a card with significant value is winning the Draft, as far as I’m concerned. And when it really comes down to it, no one pick (or even two) makes or breaks one’s Draft, no matter how good a playable is passed. If your deck is bad, it’s for more reasons than the on-color Stab Wound you passed for a shock land you’re not playing.

I should say that the heading of this section isn’t completely true, you shouldn’t just blindly pick every rare you see. Make no mistake: there is great shame in picking Biovisionary over Drakewing Krasis. But don’t let players at your LGS convince you that taking a card for its monetary value is wrong. These players are misguided at best, or at worst, trying to get you to pass money rares to them.

For me, I always consider things from thing angle: will I be kicking myself more for passing the money rare or passing the playable? It’s not feasible to set a rule-of-thumb dollar limit, because each situation is unique. For example, if I open Loxodon Smiter (online mid at $4.28) and I’m drafting Izzet, then I’m windmilling Frostburn Weird or Annihilating Fire and not worrying about the $4. But if my options are more on the level of Runewing or Pursuit of Flight, that $4 card starts to look pretty appealing. Sometimes a playable is worth giving up a few bucks, but I personally can’t imagine ever passing a card worth more than $10. That’s almost the cost of entry!

Bulk Rares Need Love, Too

Bulk rares are sweet. They’re a dime at minimum, and dimes add up quickly. Late in packs when pickings are slim, I will happily take that very same Biovisionary about which I shamed you earlier. I will never take it over a playable that will make my deck. But I will take it over marginal sideboard cards like Naturalize or Shielded Passage, and I will take it over off-color playables (yes, even Drakewing Krasis). It’s generally accepted that hate-drafting is not really the most advantageous way to Draft, and if I’m given the choice of adding another bulk rare to my collection or keeping a fellow drafter from getting a stupid vanilla six-drop, I’ll probably just take the bulk rare. I’m not likely to face that six-drop, and if I do, it’s not like I auto-lose to it. In the meantime, I just turned the half-penny value of a bulk common into a dime, profiting 9.5 cents. Now if I could just do that three or four million times…

Winning is Everything

If you play at a store that accepts pack-ins for Draft (providing packs instead of paying cash), there is virtually no excuse to opening any prize packs you win. Have some patience and save those suckers for later. I paid cash for two Dragon’s Maze pre-releases and have drafted all but one week since without spending another dollar (except on candy, beverages, sleeves, etc.—it’s important to support your LGS). If I had opened my prize packs, I would have ended up spending more than twice than I have so far. And to what end? To maybe open Voice of Resurgence? Think of it this way: you’re probably going to take any money cards you open, right? So you get those either way. But opening a card like Stolen Identity is great in a Draft and disappointing when you’re cracking for value. Don’t you want to be happy with your packs more often? I know I do. Save your packs for drafting, people.

Turn Off the Lights, the Draft is Over

Many drafters sell their money cards back to the store at a deep discount, throw away the uncommons and commons, and don’t think about it past that. I’m not going to say this is an incorrect practice. It’s quick, it’s easy, and it offers immediate results. But it leaves a lot of value on the table.

I will happily pick up abandoned Draft decks (always confirming, of course, that the cards really are unwanted). Sometimes you’ll find constructed-playable uncommons or bulk rares. Most of the time it really is just junk, but that has value, too. I’ll even pick up the abandoned basic lands within arms’ reach. Why not? Many sites pay more for bulk basics than for standard bulk commons.

Let’s Sit Down and Sort This Out

Some people might consider how many cards I end up sorting a downside to this system. That’s a valid point if you generally don’t have the patience to manage your collection, but I’m the type who finds an unreasonable amount of joy in organizing things, so I actually like this part.

Still, it takes a lot of time to organize hundreds of cards, but there are ways to make it happen during normal downtime. Watching the Daily Show? Sort some cards. Waiting for an MTGO round to finish or a load screen on League of Legends? Sort some cards. Spending the weekend marathoning the newest season of Mad Men on Netflix? This leaves plenty of time to sort some cards, not to mention go through the junk mail that’s piled up, do some pushups, and pay your bills. I like to double-task, but your mileage may vary.

When going through my Draft leftovers, I have several categories I sort into:

1. Cards to go in the trade binder

These are rares, foils, or valuable uncommons that I believe are currently overpriced or at peak price. These are usually in-demand Standard or Commander staples so they are not hard to move quickly. I slot these into my oft-used and always-handy trade binder.

2. Cards to hold for future trading

These are cards I am unwilling to trade at current prices because I believe they are too low. I throw cards like these into a box (please don’t put cards that aren’t for trade in your trade binder) until they rise in price to a level at which I feel comfortable trading them. Many of these are bulk rares and mythics that don’t ever pan out, but given the already-low price point on these, I’m not losing much value by sitting on them.

3. Bulk rares and bulk foil commons/uncommons

Cards I have no faith will ever be more than bulk are thrown into a bulk box. I consider bulk foil commons/uncommons to be on the same level as bulk rares and keep them all in the same box. This also includes foil basic lands.

4. Bulk uncommons/commons

I have a shoebox that I consistently fill with cards, with two columns for commons and one for uncommons. When it gets full, I out the cards (discussed in detail in part two of this article).

5. Basic lands

Another shoebox is filled with basic lands. This box fills slower than the commons box as I really only end up with five to ten new lands per Draft.

6. Tokens

Tokens also get tossed in a box. Ones worth a few bucks, like Planeswalker emblems, are put in my trade binder.

So Now You’re a Legitimate Expert

Now that you’ve read this, your next Draft night should go like so: get in there, open one or more money cards (completely within your control if you just believe), draft awesome cards when available, and snatch up bulk rares and foils when the pickings are slim. After you win the Draft (surely inevitable), make some trades. At all costs, save your prize packs to pack-in to the next one! When you have a moment in the next few days, sort your cards into your exquisitely and intuitively structured collection.

Then join me in our next installment where I will discuss strategies for maximizing value out of your neatly sorted Draft leftovers, including which types of cards to trade into and out of, best ways to out bulk, and more.

Insider: The Lies We Tell Ourselves

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Welcome back readers/speculators/critics/etc.! This weeks article will cover some of the lies we tell ourselves with regards to many subjects (Magic included of course).

Primer

The concept for this article actually occurred to me as I was leaving the bar last night. My friends and I were sitting at a table and I was watching this other table. At it were a guy in a polo shirt, a girl in a blue dress, and a girl in a yellow dress. The guy was focused solely on the girl in the blue dress; so much so that he was only looking at her and really only talking to her. The girl in the blue dress reciprocated and her poor friend in yellow was left to occasionally jump into the conversation or stare intently at her phone.

Where am I going with this, you may wonder. Don't worry, I'll feed you baby birds (who gets this reference?)

I was sadly cradling my water (I was the DD) and trying to talk myself into going over and introducing myself for about 30 minutes. Eventually my brain convinced me that the person she kept texting was probably her boyfriend and I would simply look stupid if I walked over there. They all got up and left and shortly thereafter so did my group.

The whole time I was driving back all I could think was how much of a wuss I was and that the worst possible outcome was that she said she wasn't interested (well worst would be that her boyfriend was an Marine Scout Sniper with a huge rage/jealousy problem).

All this got me thinking about the lies we tell ourselves in the MTG world.

Meat and Potatoes

Lie #1: We missed the peak time to sell so we should just hold onto it until it peaks again.

It's arrogant to think you'll predict the next peak, or that it will match the previous peak and guarantee the same amount of money you'd have made if you'd sold at the perfect time. It's a terrible idea to hold onto a card that saw a massive spike and then suddenly plummeted, as those trends tend to indicate a buyout or attempt at market manipulation (Alluren says hello). All in all, your potential for gains is rather limited in this situation. While you won't have made "optimal profit", profit is still profit.

Lie #2: If the card jumps in price suddenly, it will keep going up.

So many of my compatriots on this site repeat the adage "Sell into the Hype" because it's virtually impossible to know when a card will actually hit its peak. On the other hand, it's easy to unload a card when it keeps going up, as people are much more willing to pay top dollar if they expect it to continue to rise.

As a speculator it's critical to focus on the actual profit versus risk. If you buy ten copies of a card at $1 and there's a run on it, you'll want to determine what price point is acceptable to sell; but it's critical to have this point pre-determined. You could sell all ten copies at $3 relatively easily (assuming the run is pretty quick) or you could hold out and hope for $5. You have to determine whether you're willing to risk $20 guaranteed profit vs. $40 potential profit.

This risk varies from person to person. I myself am rather risk averse when it comes to most investments. I'd sell them all at $3 (assuming they were at that price) rather than risk them maybe going to $5, with one major caveat. If I believe a card really should be worth a certain price, I'm much more willing to run the risk of it not meeting that price then sell out too early.

A prime example was Deathrite Shaman, which I warned all my friends was going to be a $10+ card when it came up and I tried to trade for every copy I could. My only regret was NOT going deep and pre-ordering tons online.

Lie #3: Legacy cards are the gold standard (i.e. safe bets)

This one pains me to admit, but looking over quite a few cards that I assumed would maintain their value, not even Legacy cards are a guarantee. While some are safer than others (dual lands), some can spike for a little while as a deck heats up, and then drop back down as the deck cools or the metagame changes. This particular concept is universal across all formats.

This became most apparent as I was looking over some Legacy cards I thought were still $25+ (Time Spiral) only to see they had dropped right back down to their pre-unbanning price of around $15. High Tide just hasn't put up any numbers recently.

Luckily, Legacy cards can spike drastically with one good showing; so in these instances it's perfectly fine to hold onto them, but it's important to sell the next time High Tide does well. There is also concern in the Legacy community about SCG cutting back its support of the format, which unfortunately, will serve as a death sentence to competitive Legacy.

Fortunately, Modern has yet to replace Legacy on the SCG circuit and WoTC's willingness to drop the banhammer when any deck becomes too prevalent will continue to be a hinderance to it's growth.

Lie #4: SCG Manipulates Prices

While this one is partially true, the basic laws of supply/demand would prove them wrong most of the time if it were always true.

The reason I say partially, is because while the prices of many cards have suddenly gone up as SCG aggressively bought them (Zendikar fetchlands, Force of Will, Wasteland, and most recently Dark Confidant/Tarmogoyf), if demand did not exist for the cards at the new SCG prices, then SCG would just have a stockpile of cards they paid a lot of money for and no income on said cards.

You can see when their buying has been too aggressive when the cards drop back down after the initial spike. More often than not you'll see them go on sale a few months later for their pre-spike price or you'll see the number in stock not change for awhile.

Lie #5: I should always get maximum value out of my cards.

This one's more of a half-truth. While you don't want to discount your trades and lose money when you don't have to, it's critical to compare what you're trading for. If you think what you're trading might go up $5 in the next month, but what you're trading for should go up by $15, losing $2 in value to secure the new stock is a worthwhile "loss".

For example, my very last trade of GP Vegas:

My ($58):

2x Chord of Calling (LP)
1x Helm of Obedience (LP)
1x Rugged Prairie (Chinese) (NM)

Their ($55):

1x Dark Confidant (German) (NM)

Right now, this looks like an amazing trade for me, but at the exact time of the trade I had to let my Rugged Prairie go for about $3 less than I would have liked. I did so because I'd seen dealers selling Dark Confidants at $80 and the guy's binder had nothing in it that was under $20.

This is part of the fun and challenge of trading. Comparing Current Price to Current Price is one level, but as a speculator we often want to also look at Future Price vs. Future Price as well. After all, if I can trade three $10 cards for three other $10 cards, except I think the cards I'm picking up will be $15 in the future and the ones I'm trading away will still be $10 each, then that's a solid trade.

It's important to note that the price of Chord has risen drastically in the last day or two, so this trade may ultimately end up a wash.

Lie #6: Foils are worth double the regular price.

This is the multiplier everyone uses when people trade for foils. Many times it's pretty accurate, however, for some of the older foils or chase foils it's quite wrong.

If you have some rarer foils and someone shows interest, it's perfectly fine to say "I honestly don't know foils that well, let me look it up" rather than jump to "well the regular is $5 so...$10?" You could be cheating yourself out of quite a lot of value and I personally believe a lot of sharks target foils specifically because so many people jump to the 2x multiplier without thinking about it.

Here are some examples to show you the kinds of multipliers that exist (@ TCG Mid):

Daze (non-foil): $2.99
Daze (foil): $66.35
Multiplier: x 22.19

Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (non-foil): $2.49
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben (foil): $17.50
Multiplier: x 7.02

Geist of Saint Traft (non-foil): $22.31
Geist of Saint Traft (foil): $54.66
Multiplier: x 2.45

Jason’s Archives: A Farewell to eBay

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They know what they did.

That didn't stop them from sending an e-mail containing phrases like "Sorry to see you go" and "you can reactivate at any time". It didn't stop them from acting like they had no idea why an eBay store would close its account so suddenly.

In reality, the timing wasn't a surprise to them--they had prematurely ended a number of my listings due to "non-compliance with eBay's photograph policy" meaning I used stock images from Gatherer like everyone does. Perhaps someone buying a Black Lotus on eBay will want high-quality scans of the card--that's understandable. A guy buying a Near Mint foil Curse of Death's Hold? Not so much.

Forcing sellers to take a detailed photograph that is 500 pixels on its shortest side and upload it for every single item listed is a poor way to compete with TCG Player, which doesn't force sellers to upload a picture at all, stock image or not.

This was the last straw in a series of bad policy decisions by eBay--making it impossible to maintain "Top-Rated seller" status and offer free shipping at the same time, for example. eBay showed a blatant disregard for those of us selling large numbers of small items despite them making the same amount of money in fees from us. Repeated calls to customer service to make my case always ended with "That's a good point, I'll forward that to my superiors," and predictably, ended there.

Make no mistake, I didn't go down without a fight. I made a half dozen attempts to circumvent their short-sighted picture policy (enacted because "surveys show items with high-quality photographs sell 4.5% better!")--importing pictures from different sites, marking my items "new" as opposed to "used", all to no avail. eBay, it seemed, doesn't care how much of a pain in the ass it is to list items for sale on their site.

Let's be clear, I realize I could continue to sell on eBay. I could simply use a digital camera to photograph the front and back of every card I wanted to sell, put all of those pictures in a folder on my computer and hunt through the folder for the correct images for each posting. I could totally do that. I could also eliminate the need to buy stamps by delivering each card purchased from me by $%&*ing bicycle, couldn't I?

The fact of the matter is, as much of an eBay apologist as I have been over the years (going so far as to write the case for eBay in one of Ryan's recent articles) I cannot defend eBay and its policies anymore. I now see absolutely zero reasons to sell on eBay over TCGPlayer despite eBay getting infinitely more traffic and having an established seller account on eBay already.

That's Not a Very Substantial First Section

Yeah, fine, I agree, but I've said all I think I need to about eBay. If anyone wants to extol the virtues of selling on TCG Player, they can do so in the comments.

It Makes Me Happy When You're Miserable

Well, I did have something else kind of irritating happen this week.

Let's Hear About That

Ok, fine.

Since I'm losing eBay as an out and haven't transitioned fully (read: "at all") to another selling platform, I'm staying afloat by buylisting cards. Buylisting is a great out and a great way to get rid of cards that are too small to sell on a site like eBay but which players need so retail sites are glad to stock them.

I've decided that rather than put all my eggs in one basket, I'd sell to a bunch of different buylists and see who paid the fastest, had the smoothest transactions and generally paid the largest percentage of what they said they were going to pay. I had sold to "buylists" exclusively in person at Grands Prix and similar events up to this point, but it was high time I got some experience selling to buylists through the mail like so much of the finance community does, because most people don't go to the ridiculous number of GPs I do.

A few clear winners emerged. For paying the highest a lot of the time, they could afford not to have such a great turnaround time, but Card Kingdom got back to me very quickly and even bought some cards that were a bit jacked up.

Strike Zone is where I take my cards first in person since they pay the best even if they're sticklers about condition. A lot of people complain about their cards being sent back and generally being upset when they sold to Strike Zone. Understand they are not going to buy cards that are not Near Mint, but if you have cards in good shape, they'll pay very well and get back to you quickly.

Having met the owner of Hobby Goblins on several occasions and having found him a fundamentally likable person and wanting to support his business, I was glad that Hobby Goblins paid the quickest on the first order I sent them, and paid the full amount they stated on bidwicket. It's been a bit of a wait on the second order but I'm not worrying yet. I have another order packed and ready to go as soon as they pay for the second and I'd be fine selling to them forever.

...None of That Sounds Irritating

Well, I had a lot of good experiences with the shops I sold to and I don't see a reason to bother people with the rare bad experience.

But You Promised!

Ok, fine. I sent cards to one store. I absolutely refuse to say who because I don't think that's productive. I will say that the store's name involves a color. And an animal. That's not enough identifying information for anyone but the most super of sleuths to piece together, and I'm not giving out more clues than that.

Anyway, a mere six weeks after they received the cards I sent them, they sent me an offer for roughly 60% of what I had expected to receive. They cited the fact that some of the cards had gone down significantly since my order was sent in. That's actually a pretty smart business practice when you think about it. Sit on buylist orders for six and a half weeks, offer less money when cards go down and if any of the cards go up, you win!

I would never attempt anything like that myself because I'd be too afraid of disgruntled mobs of people massing outside my house, burning me in effigy and adding hilarious cartoon mustaches over the top of my regular mustache to printed pictures of me. I'm not optimistic about getting paid a decent amount on the order I sent them five weeks ago that they haven't even acknowledged receipt of (always send with tracking and keep your receipts!).

There are plenty of stores who will process your orders in a week or two and won't act like they're doing you a favor by paying you way less than they would have if they'd processed the order at a non-glacial pace. There are plenty of stores that pay almost as much and are more pleasant to deal with. I listed a few of them above and those are stores I'd advocate dealing with.

Tournament Time

As much as I would have loved to continue my ridiculous Magic lifestyle and vacation in Miami, I didn't head to the most recent GP.

If Black Vise Were Legal, "Miami Vise" Would Be a Killer Headline

GP Miami Top 8

Bard Narson (or "Mr Nelson, your Grace" as I am forced to call him) continues to be the only person playing Magic who is innovating. He has made some updates to his Junk Aristocrats deck that make me really ambivalent about the upcoming rotation.

On one hand, Jund is losing its entire deck and that's going to make me laugh at them and be happy, but on the other hand, Standard is losing Blood Artist, which is one of my Top 10 favorite creatures ever. Garruk Relentless and Obzedat, Ghost Council seem like fine inclusions, though it's at the cost of sac outlets.

Everyone's initial thoughts looking at the deck are that it lacks sac outlets, but if the current build is good enough for Bard Narson, they're more than good enough for you monkeys.

Narson fell in the semifinals to eventual winner, nice guy Reid, which is too bad since Jund should be a better matchup than it actually played out (Wolf Run did so much WORK) but not a great one. I still love this deck and if I played this silly children's card game with all of its variance and constant rotation of sets, I'd play this deck, and in its current configuration.

I guess I brought up Reid Duke, so why not talk briefly about him. On the way to have his picture taken on the beach, something happened.

Someone either wants on the Community Cup or is actually that cool.

Namely someone's car broke down and Reid stopped what he was doing to help push. It would have been easier with five people pushing, but at least two people decided it would be better to document the incident with photography than help. Not Reid "I just won a GP" Duke, who put his back into it. Nice work, Dukey!

All of this being a nice guy, complimenting his opponent's play, helping a broken-down car's owner, being super approachable--it all may be enough for you guys, but anything short of pushing my car three miles to the hospital so I can give my father a life-saving organ transplant and then when I'm rejected as a donor on the basis of compatibility, giving my father a portion of his own liver, will not make me forget that he won the GP playing Jund.

I like Peter Ingram's Domri Naya. I feel like the extra advantage and removal is a nice way to counter the "every card I draw is a bomb" attitude Jund players have, and Pillar of Flame set to rotate could make Naya the colors to be playing given how many decks people seem to want to jam Voice of Resurgence into. Losing Huntmaster of the Fells hurts Naya less than it hurts Jund.

Bant Auras made the Top 8? Valentin Mackl must have played pretty tight. The deck plays itself usually, but there are times when you really need to go into the tank, and the deck mulligans poorly in my experience, although some people (we'll call them "lucksacks") claim it mulls well.

Not needing to draw any cards beyond a good opening seven seem to support that, but I had to ship plenty of three land four aura hands and that felt BAD. If you get a five with two lands, two auras and a hexproof dude, congrats, but with so few creatures in the deck, don't expect to see that often.

Still, Valentin Mackl did ok with it. There has to be a "Macklemore" pun in there somewhere. Maybe if he wins the next GP instead of losing in the quarterfinals to last month's Junk Rites build I'll make one up.

Speaking of last month's Junk Rites build, Josh McClain (I keep wanting to say "John" for some reason. Yippe Ki Yay!) managed Top 8 with... last month's Junk Rites build. The deck is playing well despite Jund maindecking Ground Seal. I attribute this to the deck being able to cast stuff and not having to rely on the yard.

Samuel Tharmaratnam played another "last month's" deck, UWR Flash. The deck is tough to pilot and the meta seems hostile, but Tharmaratnam is a student of the JVL school of magic and thought card draw and tempo was enough to get there. Personally, I like any deck that can flash back a Warleader's Helix with Snapcaster Mage. Matthew Costa played the same deck for similar reasons. It isn't the best Thundermaw Hellkite deck (Jund likely is), but it matches a lot of players' play styles if they like to draw cards (who don't?).

Christoffer Larsen's Gruul Aggro seems a bit out of place. These decks run consistently but not powerfully in my experience, but consistency can be a factor, even over fifteen rounds. Not being able to deal with an early Madcap Skills on just about any creature fills one with a sense of panic and dread and if threats like that aren't dealt with, expect to scoop them up in short order.

Ya Lousy Bums

That's about all the Magic that was played this weekend worth noting. There was no SCG Open or Classic as far as I know. There's always next week for more opportunities for a Jund deck to do well, me to try and fail to find anything financially-relevant to say about the results and for Jeph Foster to autograph more copies of Notion Thief.

This is a thing that happens now.

Now get out of here, ya bums. That's enough Magic junk food for one afternoon.

- Jason Alt

Drown You

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A few weeks back I was slightly ahead of the curve on battling with Ætherling and Cavern of Souls. The more people played with Ætherling, the more they realized this is exactly how they wanted to be ending games. Now, having played far too many Ætherling mirrors I am completely sick of it. There's just no good way to interact directly with the Ætherling plan. You've either killed them before it happens, are well on track to do so, or you die handily. That said, it's still quite obviously the best endgame available for UWR. This leaves me very much not wanting to play that deck ever again.

I took a step away from Standard for a week or so to draft some Modern Masters, play some Pauper, and, you know, actually enjoy Magic. But something inside me won't just let me give up on Standard. It might be hubris and it also could be that I'm just a masochist, but it wasn't long before I found myself back in the Standard queues.

I toyed around with Domri Naya for a few days, finding that I could reasonably beat most of the decks and that Bonfire of the Damned did a lot of work towards fixing the Aristocrats matchup, but alas the deck just didn't have a lot of play to it. I get bored of playing decks without any card selection very quickly, as it feels like anybody could have more or less played the exact games that I played.

While trying to find a different way to circumvent the Ætherling problem I strongly considered brewing a Maze's End deck, but then I remembered all of these things:

I couldn't beat land destruction, I likely couldn't recover from being Mind Twisted, and having one of my Gates randomly milled was probably game over barring something like Creeping Renaissance, which I didn't like my odds of resolving.

And there it was right in front of me. The Drownyard deck could probably do a number on the Ætherling deck.

When I first saw Robert Seeder's winning list from the Philadelphia SCG Open I was overwhelmingly bored. The deck appeared painfully redundant without having a ton of abstract power and was completely removed from the combat phase. Between then and now I remembered that this doesn't really bother me if the deck can win. After playing a few matches I saw that that's something this deck is quite good at doing.

First Impressions

While Far//Away has proven to be a very powerful spell, the removal options for Esper are for the most part a great deal weaker than they are for UWR. With the UWR deck I always felt very confident that I would crush the Naya Blitz decks. With Esper it often comes down to miracling a Terminus on the proper turn- and yes, you do need to play all four. I wouldn't advise against adding a few Supreme Verdict to the 75, but the difference between having a Terminus on turn 1-3 and waiting until turn four can often be the difference between winning handily and losing- especially if there are Strangleroot Geists involved.

Renounce the Guilds most likely has a place in the deck as a removal option as well. It hits something against most decks and is more efficient than most other options. You don't want to overload on them in the main, but having one sounds solid to me.

The Creature Suite is Wrong

As was pointed out in the comments section of my initial UWR article, there's a lot of Ground Seal going on right now. This diminishes Snapcaster Mage's stock quite a bit. I'm more inclined to jam Augur of Bolas in a deck like this, especially considering how mana intensive most of the spells are. This deck generally does its losing in phase one of the game, and Snapcaster Mage is either an Ambush Viper (we can do better) or a phase two spell (we have plenty).

Restoration Angel is decidedly out of place. We're not trying to win with damage and Ghor-Clan Rampager has made blocking with Restoration Angel so much worse. Not to mention the increasing presence of Madcap Skills. I will grant that the other spells in this deck are good against Mad Skills, but Restoration Angel specifically is very bad there. I like Angel more once Augur is in the deck, but with Snapcaster the actual value plays cost just a ton of mana- which most of our spells already tend to do. I'm not enthused about keeping Resto here. And speaking of out of place...

Go Home Sorin, You're Drunk

I get that Sorin, Lord of Innistrad is a powerful card, and I get that Planeswalkers are better when you control more of them, but Sorin just doesn't do a lot here. There aren't any Lingering Souls to benefit from the emblem and making a 1/1 every turn is pretty underwhelming. In all honesty, I'd easily cut this guy for another land- 23 colored sources just doesn't feel like a lot and this deck wants to hit basically every land drop ever anyway. I can't imagine missing Sorin.

On the Sideboard

For the most part the sideboard looks pretty sound. Graveyard removal, Planar Cleansing for hosing Jund, counters for control mirrors. Good stuff.

That all said, I just don't get that Ætherling. This deck isn't trying to win by damage and it has no Cavern of Souls to force it out in the blue mirror. It's possible that it's for beating Thragtusk decks, which it's fine at doing, but I think that big Jace is just better in this role. I'll stick to wrathing them and finding a good window for milling them personally.

I've also been pretty happy bringing in a couple Appetite for Brains against Jund and Reanimator. Their relevant spells all cost a ton and Cavern of Souls plus Sire of Insanity is just game sometimes. Stripping it from their hand is a good way to circumvent this, I've found.

All that said, here's my current list:

"Drown You"

spells

3 Azorius Charm
1 Cyclonic Rift
4 Far//Away
4 Think Twice
3 Augur of Bolas
1 Renounce the Guilds
3 Dissipate
1 Supreme Verdict
2 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Jace, Memory Adept
1 Tamiyo, The Moon Sage
4 Terminus
4 Sphinx's Revelation

land

4 Glacial Fortress
4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Drowned Catacomb
4 Watery Grave
3 Godless Shrine
4 Isolated Chapel
4 Nephalia Drownyard
1 Island

sideboard

2 Purify the Grave
1 Rest in Peace
2 Appetite for Brains
2 Tragic Slip
1 Negate
1 Dissipate
1 Tribute to Hunger
2 Supreme Verdict
1 Jace, Memory Adept
2 Planar Cleansing

Thus far the deck has proven to be pretty skill testing and more fun than initially thought. And, most importantly, it's damn good.

Questions, concerns? Hit me up in the comments section!

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Interpreting Price Spikes

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Every morning I conduct the same MTG research – I check my Twitter feed, I review the Daily MTG page on The Mother Ship site and I often scan my watched eBay auctions to identify which cards are selling and which aren’t.

But no morning would be complete without reviewing the top Interests on mtgstocks.com. This daily update has become a cornerstone of my research because it enables me to keep my finger on the pulse of the MTG market constantly. While a few outliers can skew numbers, often times the insights I gain from reviewing this site are of great value.

But “value” is a fairly generic term. Sometimes the most useful information from mtgstocks.com is not the next hot buy. Instead, general insights into metagames, casual interests, and how the market is ridiculous can all surface from the data on this website. How we react to the data and utilize it is how we extract this “value”. Allow me to explain further.

Sunday’s Interests – A Case Study

Where is the value from Sunday morning’s feed?

I often skip over the From the Vault cards since their supply is generally lower and so their prices tend to move more readily. Additionally, the price increases on smaller cards like Mana Echoes and Propaganda aren’t very interesting.

But inevitably there is something worth reviewing. This time I have taken note of two important tidbits here which I can gain “value” from.

First, I notice that Burgeoning has continued its slow, steady rise in price. Over the course of the past year this Green Enchantment has gone from $5 to $9 TCG Mid, an 80% increase in price. While this is a steep increase, the rise has been gradual in nature. This indicates to me the possibility that this price increase will stick – more on that later.

The second mtgstocks.com Interest I took note of this morning was Chord of Calling.

What I like about this data point is the fact that the price continues to rise despite already jumping in price significantly. So many times we watch a card jump in price drastically only to see it retreat in the subsequent week. A recent example of this would be Dream Halls, which after doubling has dropped 14.8%, 20%, and 6.7% in three consecutive days. Despite the sudden spike in Chord of Calling’s price, I feel the sustained subsequent price rise indicates to me this higher price may stick.

The Factors That Matter

Why is this so important? Why do I like Chord of Calling’s new price but not Dream Halls? I’ll try to explain a bit further what I look for in a price chart and what card characteristics I consider when determining if a price spike may stick or not.

An Unsustainable Rise

So often a card’s price will spike due to a coordinated buyout. A player or dealer decides he or she wants to manipulate the market, so they go online and purchase as many copies of a single card as possible. This happened recently with Living Plane.

Being a rare from an older set and on the Reserved List, it certainly qualifies as one of those potential “buyout targets”. Someone noticed this and decided to make the spike happen – the card’s price tripled overnight.

Upon seeing this jump I had to make a quick decision. Do I scrounge MTG shops all over the net to find copies at the older price or do I let this one go? (Since I owned zero copies I didn’t have to debate selling, but I’ll touch on this later). To answer these questions I first consider the formats this card is relevant to and also its playability. In the case of Living Plane, I deemed this card relevant in zero formats. Seriously, zero. Maybe someone can convince me this is playable in EDH but it’s just so pointless to use. The artwork is probably the best part of this card.

Since the card’s uselessness was so obvious to me, the decision to pass on this hype was an easy one. I neglected to buy any copies even at the old price – this turned out to be the right decision. The card has already retreated almost entirely. If I had pulled the trigger, I would not have received the copies in time to sell at the peak price, and fees would likely have eaten away at whatever profits I could possibly gain.

A Sustainable Rise

When Dark Confidant spiked in price, my analysis went very differently.

During GP Vegas major retailers were increasing their buy prices on Dark Confidant to $50. It became very clear that the increased supply from Modern Masters would not outweigh the increase in demand driven by a newfound interest in Modern. The result – a moderate price spike in cards like Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf.

The same analysis this time yielded very different conclusions. Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf are both very relevant in Legacy and Modern. Demand has seen a legitimate increase, driven by increased interest in Modern and increased aggressiveness from retailers to increase stock in anticipation of Modern season.

The conclusion: this card was a buy once the spike begun. I regretfully missed the opportunity on Bob despite watching him sell out on eBay all weekend. Instead I focused my resources on Tarmogoyf. This decision has also paid out, fortunately, so I have less regrets on missing Bob’s spike. It seems that an increase in demand from both retailers and players for very relevant Modern and Legacy cards is a very sustainable factor to increase a card’s price. This is also why I think Chord of Calling’s higher price will stick.

In-between Cases

Sometimes a card’s price spikes and it’s not obvious how the trajectory will continue. These are where the tougher decisions need to be made. For example, consider the recent spike in Dream Halls.

The card was steadily rising – a very sustainable trend – over the past few months. Then suddenly the price spiked over 100%. Considering the factors I outlined previously, this card is somewhat relevant in Legacy. It’s shown no dominant performances but has seen a steady increase in play thanks to the printing of Enter the Infinite and Omniscience. But is this enough to merit a 100% price increase overnight?

I believe the answer is no. There were no major tournaments where Dream Halls occurred in significant numbers within the Top 8. The price jump seemed too artificial for my liking. And I’m not just saying this because I have 20-20 hindsight. When spikes like this happens, and you determine it’s largely artificial, the best thing to do is to list any copies you have for sale immediately. I’m talking the morning of the price spike and no later.

This is precisely what I did with my three copies of Dream Halls. I had picked these up a month or so ago after noticing this card’s increase in play. As I mentioned before, steady price growth can be very sustainable. But once the price spiked artificially overnight, I listed my copies on eBay with the lowest buy it now price. Within two hours, they sold for $14.99 each. Just a couple days later, the TCG Mid price has already dropped below this price. Selling into artificial hype is always good. Take your profits and move on – let someone else juggle the hot potato to try and make a little more profit.

Don’t Be Emotional

It’s always exciting to see cards on the move every morning. But we need to keep emotions out of our decision making process when it comes to price spikes. If a card jumps overnight, it can be tempting to buy more copies online with plans to sell at even higher prices. The old mantra of “buy low, sell high” should remain at the forefront of your strategy. Don’t buy into a spike unless you truly feel the price rise is sustainable based on fundamentals.

In the case of Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf, the price increases were 100% justifiable. Buying these out of necessity is perfectly fine (though I don’t know if buying today would net you much profit vs. the risk you’d have to take). In the case of Dream Halls, insufficient fundamental support for a card makes for a weak foundation. In these cases, don’t buy into the hype. Instead, sell spare copies you have immediately. Even waiting one day can mean less profit because the faster these cards spike, the faster they tend to drop. Selling into hype for significant profit is always right even if you don’t sell at the peak. If people had done that during the recent gold bubble, they may not be riding a terrifying roller coaster right now (chart from Yahoo! Finance)…

...

Sigbits

I love Star City Games’ feature where you can ask to receive email notification that a card is back in stock. It helps me stay on top of price increases and measure supply/demand of certain cards of interest. Here are some alerts I currently have set because SCG is sold out:

  • Elemental Tokens from Dragon’s Maze! I’ve had an alert on these for weeks now and I don’t remember receiving an email they were restocked. As long as Voice of Resurgence remains relevant, these tokens will be hot. SCG offered me $2.00 each on my copies at GP Providence but I turned the offer down. Now they are sold out at $4.99 – I should be able to get $3 on these very soon.
  • Both regular and foil copies of Chord of Calling are sold out on SCG. This is more evidence that the recent spike is sustainable, and I suspect that when I do finally get that email alert, these prices will be higher.
  • On the other hand, you know how Mana Vortex recently spiked to $10+ on mtgstocks.com. Well, SCG currently has two NM copies in stock at $3.99. Unlike Chord of Calling, this card isn’t sold out. With the highest buy price on Mana Vortex being a mere $2 according to mtg.gg, I see no reason for this spike to last. Sell your copies now, but make sure to set an alert on SCG for this card should it sell out. The restocking price will be a tell as to whether SCG believes in the price jump.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: GP Las Vegas

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Welcome back readers! As all (or 99.99%) of you are aware, this past weekend was Grand Prix Las Vegas, the first and only Modern Masters sealed GP of the year.

The tournament had to be capped at 4500 people with people waiting 5+ hours in line on Friday to try and get a playmat. While waiting in line, some entrepreneurs walked around selling their playmats at $120 each, and apparently sold five that way. Thus, they paid for their entire tournament entry (including VIP status) with just the mat.

This GP highlighted the growing cost of MTG as a whole as well as the massive amount of interest in Modern Masters. Whether either is sustainable has yet to be seen. Seeing as you QSers are here to learn financial advice, I guess I'll delve right in.

Hottest Cards

Tarmogoyf -- This one's pretty obvious, but it was still funny to see stores offering their old buylist price on Tarmogoyfs (usually around $85) when SCG was paying $100. Rumor was that someone was even offering $110 (if anyone knows who, please chime in in the comments section.) This aggressive buying strategy by SCG implies they believe strongly that demand for this card will only go up (duh!), but more importantly that it can sustain a higher price point.

Many dealers were selling Goyfs in the $150 range. Unfortunately, I didn't witness anyone buying goyfs at that price, but I have a feeling that's because most people felt they could trade for them instead. On a fun side note, there was supposedly one guy in the white pod that cracked two regular Goyfs and a foil Goyf, and promptly dropped.

Dark Confidant -- This guy was number two on the dealers' "most desirable" list. Many dealers were selling MM versions at $80, but I didn't witness anyone buying them at this price. SCG was buying them at $50, five dollars under the TCG low price at the time. Again, this implies SCG believes demand will sustain a higher price point.

Of course, some people are claiming that SCG set the price that high to hoard both Dark Confidants and Tarmogoyfs so that they'll have them for the Modern season, when they might charge even more.

Chord of Calling -- One of my friends sold his Chord to a dealer at $12 cash despite the TCG low at the time being around $14.50. The fact that it didn't appear in MM and has a unique keyword implies it's unlikely to show up as a reprint unless convoke is brought back in another set. Chord is used in several of the Pod decks as an instant-speed Green Sun's Zenith. Should Zenith get unbanned (as I believe it should be), it would most likely drop the value on Chord.

Zendikar Fetchlands -- If it wasn't obvious before, a lot of people are betting hard on the Modern format, including WoTC. With the reprint of the shocklands in RTR block the most expensive part of the mana base is now the fetchlands. I met quite a few people asking if I had fetches and many trying to trade for them. Sadly, those people didn't have enough or wouldn't give me the premium I wanted.

Shocklands -- These were also in high demand, though a large part may be due to their liquidity. I saw a lot of traders trying to "stock up" on them in anticipation of a spike come Modern season.

Abrupt Decay -- For those who didn't know, this RTR gem has dropped down to $7.25 (TCG Mid) making it a solid trade target, and a possible buy target, with a 6-9 month price target in the $10 range.

Jace, Architect of Thought -- If you read the forums daily (as I suggest you do), you already know this guy has been heating up since the RTR Block Pro Tour. The spoiling of Jace, Memory Adept in M14 has left JAoT as the preferred Jace (financially speaking) and currently one of the only planeswalkers with the ability to generate immediate card advantage in Standard.

Filterlands -- Though not as desired as their fetching or shocking cousins, the filterlands from Shadowmoor/Eventide were also in demand from many players trying to get into Modern. Personally, I was happy to trade them off at a premium whenever possible. I see a high likelihood of reprint for these guys, given that buddy lands are not in M14 and after rotation the only good mana fixing in Standard will be the shocklands.

Non-Magic Related Costs

Now that you've gotten your fill (or at least some of it) of the Magic side of my Las Vegas finance review, I'll throw in a few tidbits--not Sigbits and since Davebits sounds more like a cereal aimed at canabalistic households, we'll just stick to tidbits--regarding the hidden costs associated with traveling to major events.

Remember, money is money. If you grind out $40 in trades for a day, but then spend $40 needlessly because you didn't plan ahead, you're back to $0.

I don't intend to deter you from traveling to big events. But when money is as tight as it is for a lot of people right now, it's important to look at all the costs associated with attending an event. People often focus on the big ones (flight, hotel, car rental) but miss the little ones, which can easily add up to a lot.

Taxi/Bus Fare -- It's important to determine how far you're staying away from the venue (especially if you fly) to figure out how much to designate for taxi and bus fare.

In Vegas you can take the Duece from the strip all the way to Bonneville Station and then take the 113 to the Cashman center (the downside is that it takes around 1.25 hours), mainly because the 113 only runs every half hour, while the Duece runs every 15-20 minutes (sadly they often just miss each other). Also, if you do transfer at Bonneville, we were advised by a local gentlemen not to wander far from it as the area itself isn't that safe.

Las Vegas buses charge $8 for a 24-hour pass or $20 for a weekend pass (Fri/Sat/Sun). If you take a taxi the rate is $3.30 + 0.3 per mile, in addition to some charging extra for time (some stop lights cost us a dollar or more.) Some of the taxi drivers are a bit skeevy and might take the interstate if you aren't paying attention which will cost you another couple of bucks and is often unnecessary.

Either way, plan ahead and know where the venue is and put at least $25-30 towards transportation, if alone. In a group, taxi fares become cheaper, at least in places that don't charge more per passenger.

Hotels -- Circus Circus charged us a $66 "resort fee" when we arrived, which we hadn't accounted for, although the guy who booked it later saw a reference to it. It's important to consider the "other" costs when choosing your hotel, whether it's resort fees, internet fees, or lack of a continental breakfast.

Food -- Though it's obvious you need to eat, it's a good idea to check what restaurants are in the vicinity of your housing. It's also a good idea to check menu prices online--nothing sucks more than walking four blocks to a place that sounds good only to find out it's way more expensive than you thought.

You should also look ahead to see if there are any deals at these restaurants. For instance, Hooters Casino & Hotel in Vegas has a $9.98 prime rib dinner every night of the week (and it's delicious), $19.98 all-you-can-eat crab legs on Mondays and $17.98 all-you-can-eat ribs on Tuesdays. Ellis Island Casino also has a pretty good steak deal, which will cost about $8.00 after signing up for their free rewards club, and includes a drink (and yes that drink can be beer).

Travel Cost -- There are a plethora of other travel costs you might need to consider when determining if it's a good idea to go to a given event. For those driving, you'll need to consider gas (obviously), parking (still somewhat obvious), and potentially tolls (this is not a fun surprise). For those flying, there's often a fee to check a bag and you usually have to take something to get from the airport to your hotel (in Vegas, our shuttle was $7 one way).

Unlocked Insider: Why MTGO Redemption Matters

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An oft-heard complaint about playing Magic online is that you don't actually own anything, even though you're putting money into the game. Cardboard has value-- you can touch it, play with, sell it, it's yours to do what you will. If WoTC goes belly up, you can still play with all your cards indefinitely. The same cannot be said for MTGO.

WoTC actually owns everything to do with the online version of Magic. Although you have cards in your collection and you are buying and selling digital objects in what appears to be a free market, no single piece of your collection is truly yours. WoTC owns them, and they are just letting you use them according to the terms of service.

In practice, though, you have complete control of your collection and players and dealers alike feel confident enough that WoTC is a benevolent power that will not upset it's customers. Since players clearly believe in the fiction of ownership in digital objects, this belief breathes value into the cards, packs and tix of MTGO.

The other process that gives digital objects value is redemption.

The Details of Redemption

Redemption is a large and mostly unseen presence, working in the background of the MTGO market. It connects the digital market of MTGO with the real world market. Once you collect an entire set, you can redeem that online set for a physical copy for a small fee. The digital set is destroyed and WoTC ships you a factory sealed version. This provides a link to the real world, which keeps prices of redeemable sets somewhat in line with cardboard prices. Getting these in the mail is even more fun than you'd imagine.

If the online market gets flooded with a ton of cards, then redeemers will step up their activity in order to capitalize on the relatively cheap digital cards. If cardboard prices take off for a particular set, then redeemers likewise have an incentive to get to work. In both cases, redemption acts as a stabilizing mechanism which keeps digital and cardboard prices closer than they otherwise would.

Shards block and M10 are no longer available for redemption and Zendikar block and M11 will not be available for redemption after November 5th of this year. Details on redemption cut off dates are at the bottom of this page. You'll notice a column titled Redemption Guarantee Date. WoTC will keep producing factory sets until this date and then after that redemption orders will only be filled until their stock runs out. It's unusual that they run out of stock, but it bears keeping in mind.

Below is a table which holds sets from the last four years, along with prices from Supernova Bots on complete sets (prices in tix as of Aug 12, 2012) and beside that are prices from SCG (prices in $US as of Aug 12, 2012). The last column is a simple ratio where the price of online sets are divided by the price of cardboard sets. This allows some conjecture based on the ratio's value. As a side note, SCG might have inflated prices relative to eBay and your LGS, but it's not a big concern because the useful information is in the ratio - where we consider the the relative price of digital sets versus cardboard.

What Do the Numbers Say?

Set Supernova Bots Star City Games Ratio
Shards of Alara 41 175 .23
Conflux 46 140 .33
Alara Reborn 30 110 .27
Magic 2010 34 150 .23
Zendikar 125 225 .56
Worldwake 96 130 .74
Rise of the Eldrazi 134 175 .77
Magic 2011 62 150 .41
Scars of Mirrodin 75 200 .38
Mirrodin Besieged 64 160 .40
New Phyrexia 107 175 .61
Magic 2012 73 200 .37
Innistrad 107 200 .54
Dark Ascension 91 200 .46
Avacyn Restored 145 275 .53
Magic 2013 87 260 .33

 

 

 

 

 

From the chart, it is obvious that the sets that are no longer redeemable have plunged in price online relative to IRL prices. The four lowest ratios are all held by the Shards block sets and M10. This suggests that speculators should be aware of pending cutoff dates in order to not get caught with depreciating assets such as the Eldrazi monsters.

Elspeth, Knight-Errant, Noble Hierarch and Maelstrom Pulse are the three most expensive digital cards from Shards block, suggesting that playability in Eternal formats is what drives the price of cards after the redemption cut off date. Staples such as the Zendikar fetch lands will hold their value over time, but something like Eldrazi Monument might not.

As a block, Zendikar holds the highest ratios. This is not surprising, as redemption demand would have steadily reduced the online supply of cards and drafting of Zen block wrapped up last October.

Although M10's ratio is in line with Shards block, you might ask why M11 has such a low ratio compared to the Zen block sets. One hypothesis is that there are quite a few Eternal staples in Zen block, including the fetch lands, Jace, the Mind Sculptor and Stoneforge Mystic, while M11 only has a handful of fringe Eternal cards that have seen multiple printings, such as Birds of Paradise and Jace Beleren.

The Scars block ratios are a bit all over the place but have been coming down as rotation nears. Expect further erosion in these ratios as players let go of their Scars block cards and look forward to Fall Standard.

In and around October, the price of Scars block cards will bottom out with players dumping their former Standard staples for tix. After that, expect a gradual increase in the value of the Scars block mythics as redeemers seek to capitalize on the difference in price between digital and cardboard sets.

As a general rule, Fall rotation is the best time to be picking up Eternal staples and depressed mythics from the sets that have just left Standard.

Magic 2013 is not yet available for redemption, so it's ratio is still relatively low. Release events will finish on Aug 15th, and redemption will start up at the end of the month. At that time, the price of M13 cards as a whole will have found a near term bottom. In the meantime, be sure to round out the playsets of the cards that you like from M13. For the most part, the mythics won't get cheaper for a while.

The Choke Point

A combination of factors ensures that a given set's price will largely be determined by the price of its mythic rares. Outside of Eternal staples, the only cards to hold value after rotation are mythic rares.

Mythics are the choke point of redemption. In order to redeem a set, you need a copy of every card from that set. Mythics are the hardest to come by, therefore they command the highest prices in the market. The sheer amount of drafting that occurs online limits the value of rares, and bulk rares routinely sell for .05 tix or less. Most of the value of a set is locked within the mythics.

As good speculators, this means that over the next few months, target only Eternal staples and mythics. Here are some examples from last year showing when a few mythics bottomed out in price.

The chart for Nissa Revane shows a bottom in early September of around 3.5 tix. If you had waited till the end of October, you still could have bought in for an attractive 5.5 tix. The chart shows a steady uptrend following rotation, with some price weakness and the possible beginning of a downtrend after July.

This chart is more typical of a junk mythic, and the bottom occurs much earlier in the year in mid-April. Once again, though, if you had bought during Innistrad release events, you still would have enjoyed a tidy profit by the turn of the calendar year.

 

Another junk mythic, this chart shows another early bottom at the beginning of May. If you had bought Cast Through Time at rotation, you would be hard pressed to turn a profit on this card. It appears that playability still matters to the price of a card. In this case, Cast Through Time truly is junk and even redemption did not impact the price strongly enough for a speculator to turn a profit.

Keep this in mind when buying mythics in the Fall. Playability still matters. If a card has zero casual appeal, the market might have enough copies floating around to satisfy demand from redeemers.

Lastly, here's an example of a card that saw steady play in Standard as part of vampire decks and sees fringe play in Modern as part of Small Pox decks. Clearly not the definition of an Eternal staple, buying these up at rotation would have yielded next to no profit. Rares are plentiful enough that redemption has little impact on their price at any time.

* * * * *

Redemption is a key part of the MTGO economy and market. It subtly supports the prices of in print cards and can drive up the price of rotated mythics. Using this knowledge, combined with some basic market timing tied to rotation, it's possible to reap consistent profits with little to no risk. For example, Quicksilver Gargantuan was at .35 tix in July of 2011. Mythics this cheap are almost always worth moving on (and if you have doubts, ask in the QS MTGO forum). It climbed up to 1.1 tix and settled to .7 tix at this point. This junk mythic doubled and tripled in price, based only on redeemers.

Like I said, consistent profits, little risk.

Jason’s Archives: What Happens in Vegas

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Greetings (admit it, you've stopped reading the first line altogether and didn't even notice when I changed it to stuff like "spectators"), speculators!

My article is a bit late this week, and I was going to apologize for that but I remembered that one time I used the phrase "dick sammich" in an article and no one batted an eye so I imagine everyone has abandoned all pretense of expecting professionalism out of me.

With my old format entirely abandoned, and now being written by someone else I imagine the procedure is as follows: skip the greeting, read the first half sentence of each paragraph, then skip to the part about decklists, notice someone in the comments said something about a financial call I made, go back to try and find where I said that, then close the window and watch some porn. I'm here to tell you that it takes a lot more effort to do that than just read straight through but you guys go the extra mile because you are the best readers an article monkey could ask for.

I've only been at this about a year, but I'm constantly blown away by the support and feedback I get from you guys. As a way to say "thank you," I'm going to tell you all about how GP Las Vegas was the Magic social event of the millennium and what a great time I had.

"You Guys are Maniacs" -- Adam Styborski

My article is late because when you drive all the way from Michigan to Las Vegas while shop crawling, you also have to drive back again. Not wanting to take four days for the trip in reverse, we opted to Ironman the trip back and drive straight through. This meant no stopping which meant no hotels which means no internet which meant you had to wait.

Last week I wrote about the shop crawl and how they're like pizzas--even when they're bad, they're still pretty good. Not shop crawling on the way back felt like a missed opportunity, but after nine days away from home, being gone longer didn't appeal all that much. In the future, we're probably going to shop crawl to a closer GP, but since we still made more than gas and hotel money on the one insane collection we got, it was actually still worth doing. Paid-for trips are the best trips.

"You Write for Gathering Magic?" -- Blake Rasmussen

If you're going to drop easily $100 a person on three square feet of the floor of a hotel room to save money, why not spend $100 on a bedroom in an insane party house? Marcel from Brainstorm Brewery found us an insane party pad ten minutes from the venue.

Since it was a pretty cool deal that we all got to hang out in a huge party pad--residents included @time_elemental, @Kevymetall, @TheBoozeCube, @norbert88, the entire Brainstorm Brewery gang, Marcel's Hood Chef brother, Jacob, and a ton of cool people I met but whose Twitter handles I can't remember--and party guests included Chas Andres, Helene Bergeot and Reuben Bresler. Not a bad group to rub elbows with.

Our party pad caught the attention of the Wizards Grand Prix coverage crew who ran a mostly accurate story about the impetus for the house and how much value it was. Scroll down a bit until you see my ridiculous playoff beard, something I was glad to shave off after the Blackhawks did me proud this week.

Getting written up by the Mothership was quite a cool experience, and gave us the impetus to record an episode of the "Meavy Meta" podcast--a joint cast with Heavy Meta to tell all the insane stories from the weekend all in one place. Check Mana Deprived or Gathering Magic later for the cast.

I look like an actual cartoon caveman.

 

"Lookie What Came in the Mail" -- Heather Dawn Lafferty

That deer ain't messin' around. Neither is that beer.

Oh, did any of you want the Brainstorm Brewery tokens with Polish Tamales' angry, drunken Voice of Resurgence token on the front and the new, Matty Studios logo on the back? Well too bad. We had them mailed to Heather since she lives out in Vegas and they showed up five days late and we'd already left town by the time she got them. Daggers.

You'll have to hit us up for one at the next event you see us. As far as the playmats go, we only made thirty and they're gone already. The next batch should probably be bigger.

"We Wanted Financial Advice" -- You

My advice is to stop skipping cool events like Grands Prix with 4,500 people held in Las Vegas the same weekend as the Electric Daisy Carnival and the World Series of Poker.

Also, if you attend a GP to sell rather than play in the main event and drop with the pool you register because it has a foil Sword of Fire and Ice, Sam Black is going to call you a thief. But it will be hard to hear him with a $100 bill in each ear.

Most Modern Masters cards are going to tank, but what's alarming is the cards that are being propped up. A popular website was buying every Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf at the event. Their website reflects their decision that a bunch more of each card being opened up and introduced into the card pool means that the price should go up.

Outraged players revolted by shrugging their shoulders and paying the new price while mumbling something about great customer service. Expect cards like Stonehewer Giant to be worth diddly in a week or two, but when a card is being clearly propped up, pay attention.

I don't know what will happen with the price on Bob and Goyf, because a set small enough for one actor to buy a majority of a card is unprecedented. Their buylist price went from $85 at Origins last week to $100 this weekend in Vegas. (Guess when I sold mine. I'll give you one guess, and give the hint that it rhymes with 'Borigins.') I imagine a good way to plan your moves is to watch the buylist and the spread, which I've started calling the "confidence index" because it makes me sound smart.

Speaking of "confidence index" a similar website, which I'll call "Bar Shmitty Tames," cut their buy price on Thoughtseize in half. Either they know something we don't, or everyone is so convinced 'Seize will be in M14 or Theros that they dumped every copy and BST doesn't need any more. Either way, that seems significant. Watch that. With Duress just spoiled, people aren't confident that Thoughtseize is getting a reprint in M14, but anything can happen, and Theros could easily herald its return.

It Wasn't Just Vegas

There was a SCG Open in Philadelphia, and since it wasn't a Grand Prix, the competitors didn't have to flee from a freak snow storm or hurricane like the last two Magic events I attended in Pennsylvania.

SCG Philly Standard Top 8

Sweet, gentle, cheek-turning Jesus! Esper Control takes it down! Robert Seder has this format totally figured out and he wins all the marbles. One could argue that not going to Vegas was a misplay, but it seems like the only misplay he made all weekend as winning with a build like this is tricky.

A few friends of mine on Team Perfect Storm, notably Crazy Ray Perez, have been jamming Esper for months with relative success and his insistence that the deck is the real deal has made me root for it.

It's losing half of its planeswalkers to rotation without gaining suitable replacements, which hurts. However, I feel that this is color combination control decks will adopt going forward. At the very least, both Jaces will do work, and with opposing Jaces not canceling them out, expect the control mirror to get hairy if it comes to that. How deep are you all on Aetherling? I'm expecting that to do a lot of the work planeswalkers are doing now.

Esper was good for two Top 8 spots as Lloyd Kurth made it in as well.

Two Reanimator decks in second and third? Not bad. I think Daniel Duterte wrote up a tourney report on reddit, but if you want to read it, you'll have to go to reddit. I spent fifteen minutes there last weekend and when I left, I forgot the name of three of the Zendikar fetchlands and how the stack worked. Prolonged exposure can lead to going full Timmy.

This deck right here looks like it could benefit from Deadbridge Chant. Once we get Scavenging Ooze, I think a stronger case for Chant can be made. Ooze is strong enough to be maindecked and lets you cut underwhelming, narrow cards like Crypt Incursion from the board.

I like B/G and Junk right now, and though it loses a lot of good cards to removal, it keeps a lot, too. Desecration Demon is perceived as bulk. Why not scoop a handful or two? Couldn't hurt.

Naya Midrange, Jund Aggro and R/G Aggro round out the Top 8. The aggro decks are actually pretty similar, but the Naya deck runs a lot of cards we're losing to rotation. One big loss will be Thundermaw Hellkite--it gives a lot of decks fits.

I don't know how good Voice is in the deck, but it put up results so it's tough to argue. With a ton of sweet tokens to pass out, I actually hope Voice is here to stay. It's not getting drafted much with MM out, and when it does, you only open one booster of Dragon's Maze. There are a lot of Voices trapped in cellophane right now; it's too bad the rest of the set is salty garbage or I'd advocate busting packs to get them.

Voice will be a lot of money and that's all there is to it. You can get Bonfire of the Damned for $7 right now, so the longer you can hold off on Voice, the better, but if you want to play with them, bite the bullet and just snap the stupid things. That's the price you pay for playing Constructed.

SCG Philly Legacy Top 8

Wow, more Reanimator! In second place we have a Legacy Reanimator deck (pet deck of the week!) but in first we have Maverick, a deck many pundits have officially declared "dead." Sure, Maverick is my pet deck, but let's not pretend any Legacy deck is ever "dead." Just add two cards to the sideboard to shore up your matchup against the new "best deck" and you win the stupid event.

So what is the "best deck" in Legacy? You ask ten people and you'll get ten different answers right now. RUG Delver managed a Top 8, so that is a possibility. It didn't hurt that the deck was piloted by the Meddling Mage himself.

Sneak and Tell variants are absent, but that one is mentioned a lot. Jund is absent, but that's a possibility. I think Punishing decks are quite good.

Speaking of which, Punishing RUG really caught my eye. Could this deck be the reason "Tar Giddy Names" is buying Grove of the Burnwillows like they're on actual fire? I can't rule it out, but I can be annoyed that I bought Groves like six months ago, sat on them, watched them not go up, then sold them at Origins because I figured the metagame would never catch up.

I'm calling Bloodbraid Elf into Shardless Agent into Ancestral Vision "RUG Ultimatum" and if you hit it, good luck losing. The Angel of Despair in the board against Show and Tell is funny, but the rando, one-of Dragon's Claw is funnier. I like this build a lot. Maybe I can scoop Groves back up before anyone notices they're disappearing.

Shardless BUG will continue to be a deck. I like it a lot, and I want foil Abrupt Decay to hit $50 so I can have enough gold coins to fill a swimming pool and cosplay as Scrooge McDuck.

Esper Deathblade is the real deal, but without Todd Anderson around to pilot it, it didn't win back-to-back events. Still, that deck is potent and you should pay attention.

Go Full Nerd

I am so glad I finally got to shave my stupid beard that I hated. Unfortunately, the late start to the NHL playoffs meant I had the stupid thing in Vegas and every time I introduced myself to someone I could tell they were surprised that I look nothing like my pictures.

I managed to add some class to Gathering Magic's video spotlight on Christine Sprankle, a member of our community who as far as I'm concerned should be a WoTC employee. Do what you can to support her, she's awesome and everything she does is for the love of this game. Like her facebook page etc.

That's all for now. Tune in next week when I may get the article turned in on time. This is Jason Alt, signing out.

Izzet Blitz the Right Deck for You?

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What happened to combo?

Combo: Short for combination. It's meaning is complex but can be summarized as a method for achieving some desired objective or to unite for a common purpose. In Magic terms, it means to find cards that interact with each other to create a powerful effect. Much of the time, these combos are subtle and rely on extensive knowledge of the rules.

In the past few years, Wizards has kept powerful combos in Standard to a minimum. While I am grateful that Standard is not a degenerate format where players win in the first few turns of the game, I do wish we had some sort of combo presence in Standard.

The easiest combo to recognize involves Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker.

If you have any creature that allows you to untap Kiki-Jiki, you can create an infinite number of copies and kill your opponent immediately. This powerful interaction is the premise for two different combo decks in Modern. You can use Zealous Conscripts, Deceiver Exarch, or even Village Bell-Ringer for this interaction.

In Standard, we typically do not have access to powerful interactions like this. The last one I can think of is when this combo was legal in Standard (with Exarch). Without the combo archetype, Standard devolves into the type of format we have now, with mostly midrange decks fighting for dominance over each other. I miss combo.

What we do get in Standard are powerful synergies. I would classify this group of cards as ones that generate a positive advantage for your board state. By playing these cards and a specific group of other cards to go with them, you create virtual card advantage. Basically, you get more value out of your cards than your opponent.

A great example of this would be Varolz, the Scar-Striped. By building your deck with cheap creatures that have a naturally high printed power, you gain an advantage from playing Varolz. Pairing cards like Vexing Devil in Standard or Death's Shadow in Modern builds powerful interactions into your deck. I have talked about the Jund version of this deck a few times. If you have not read those articles, you can read about them here and here.

Another powerful interaction would be Restoration Angel plus any other creature with an enters- or leaves-the-battlefield effect. Whether it blinks Thragtusk, Sin Collector, or even something as innocent as Borderland Ranger, the interaction is powerful. We are all well familiar with how well the angel combines with every other card in the format, but it illustrates the concept well.

The Blitz

While we do not have any true combo decks in Standard, there is one new interaction that has reignited my love of combo. As with most comboesque decks, this one is based on a crazy card you would not normally think is playable. Thankfully, the cards you get to play alongside it are already proven tournament-quality cards.

Wait, what?

That's right, this mediocre-to-playable limited card is the centerpiece of a Standard deck. Here's what you need in addition to the cyclops to beat your opponent easily.

Casting and flashing back Artful Dodge then playing Boros Charm gives you three spells to make Nivix Cyclops's power ten and by choosing the double strike mode on the charm, you deal the full twenty.

Not only can you play narrow spells like Artful Dodge, but also ones that help control the game as well as lots of card draw. If your opponent does not have removal for the cyclops they may well just die on turn four. Because this is a creature-based combo deck, we are susceptible to removal, but unless they have the right removal at the right time, we should find success.

The deck's creator, Travis Woo, wrote two amazing article on this deck. If you like it, I recommend reading his articles here and here as well. In the second one, he also includes a budget version of the deck in case you are short on funds for Standard.

Here's my current list.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Nivix Cyclops
3 Guttersnipe
3 Geist of Saint Traft

Spells

4 Pillar of Flame
4 Artful Dodge
4 Thought Scour
4 Faithless Looting
4 Izzet Charm
2 Searing Spear
1 Feeling of Dread
4 Boros Charm

Lands

4 Steam Vents
4 Sacred Foundry
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Sulfur Falls
2 Clifftop Retreat
3 Glacial Fortress
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Moorland Haunt
2 Faith's Shield
1 Harvest Pyre
3 Boros Reckoner
2 Ral Zarek
2 Warleader's Helix
2 Turn // Burn
1 Snapcaster Mage
1 Geist of Saint Traft

Hopefully by looking at the deck list, you can see the game plan. Any of the three win conditions are good enough to defeat your opponent but you must plan out your line of attack according to which threat you have in hand.

Basically you want to save the majority of your spells to fuel Guttersnipe or Nivix Cyclops, maximizing damage from those cards. Do not just play your spells on turns one and two unless you are digging for something specific. Maximizing your resources is an important part of the game to learn, but this deck is one exception to that fundamental concept. Every spell you can play can double as a burn spell. Whenever you play them with a threat in play, your opponent takes damage. So, save those spells to get the most out of your win conditions.

One of the best aspects of this deck is the number of cards you see. There are approximately a million ways to draw cards! Faithless Looting (twice), Izzet Charm (looting mode), and Thought Scour (to thin your deck) show you extra cards in the double digits on a regular basis. Seeing this many cards is certainly one of the most important strengths of this deck.

In previous versions (those without Geist of Saint Traft) there were times that even with the plethora of card selection, you still did not find a threat. By adding Geist to the deck you add another powerhouse win condition.

One of the biggest downfalls of this deck is its difficulty beating Jund. Every other deck in the format can be beaten with relative ease, but Jund presents difficultly. Sometimes their removal doesn't match up with the threats you drew, and then you stomp them. The problem is that their deck has all the answers they need, and it's just a matter of them drawing the correct cards for the situation.

The other problem is that every version of Jund is different and you have no way of knowing what removal suit they play maindeck. That forces you to play your cards based on what your opponent is statistically likely to have. Sometimes this works out in your favor, and others it doesn't. Despite being your worst matchup by a mile, Jund is very beatable so don't get too down on yourself for losing a couple matches to the deck.

Right now I am trying to figure out a better configuration that will beat Jund, but the list above does a reasonable job.

This is another deck that is a ton of fun to play but is still competitive at the same time. If you are tired of the midrange decks bouncing off each other, give Izzet Blitz a try. It definitely feels like playing a different game than your opponent. It's such a breath of fresh air.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Izzet Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Tales from the Floor — GP Vegas

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I’ll just leave this up here before going any further.

Not bad company to be in.

GP Woodstock

4,500 people playing at GP Vegas. The largest TCG tournament ever hosted. 200+ Tarmogoyfs opened.

In other words, blah blah blah.

I assume everyone reading this knows the basics of the tournament. What you may not know is how things transpired on the floor. Now, while I didn’t spend as much time as usual trading (due to playing all day both days), I still got some trades in and have some news from the floor.

I find that first-hand experience at stuff like this is way better than trying to predict why things happened from afar, so the plan today is to share the impressions I got from the dealers and traders I talked to this weekend.

First, let’s talk about the player cap. Some people speculated this was due a lack of product, but my sources at Cascade Games (the TO) assured me that was not the case. Instead, they simply ran out of judges. Only Level 2 or higher judges are supposed to be on the main event floor at GPs, and they tapped every available judge for Vegas and simply ran out.

Also, because the event was so large and became such a milestone event, Wizards stepped in heavily to help run the tournament, which cut down on a lot of the issues that may have otherwise cropped up. I know there are certainly some complaints about how things went, but Magic players are always complaining about something. Overall, the event ran very well considering the extraordinary circumstances.

Modern Masters

Obviously we aren’t the only ones who knew that Vegas would unleash a bunch of Modern product onto the marketplace. Dealers came to Sin City knowing the same, and they came with a plan. Namely, to not let any of that product make it out of town unless they left with it.

The impending price bump on Dark Confidant and Goyf was made obvious by certain dealers buying the room out of everyone’s favorite rare draft at $100 or above.

The price jump is here to stay, and I’ll admit it came a little sooner than I expected. I knew dealers would be buying well this weekend, but I didn’t expect the price increases to come so quickly as well. We’re still many months away from Modern season!

While I don’t see a ton of upside to Bob or Goyf after this weekend, I think their mythic buddy Vendilion Clique has some room to run. The price on this hasn’t bumped like the other two even though it rounds out the triumvirate of hyper-expensive Modern/Legacy staples. The $40 you can pay for these now could easily be $55-60 in a few weeks, and almost assuredly will climb between now and Modern season.

Sure, in terms of percentages there’s not a ton of upside here, but in real dollars it’s a very good target, especially if you’re able to scoop them out of trade binders at home.

Cryptic Command is another one I don’t mind targeting. The original printing has dropped $5 or so since Modern Masters but I expect all versions to be $30 or higher come Modern season.

The casual rares, and the commons and uncommons, are a different story. I saw dealers paying as little as 10 cents on what was previously up to $1.50 on Lava Spike. I think with things like that and Lightning Helix (and even Path to Exile) you’re best off just holding them. I expect Helix and Path to rebound a bit come Modern season, but for the previously good picks at common like Lava Spike and Etherium Sculptor (or Mind Funeral at uncommon), I think you just put them into the long-term box and forget about them for a while. They’ll rebound eventually, so I don’t see the point of cashing out now, but it will be on a much longer time scale than the higher rarities.

And seeing how little prices have fallen, I officially like keeping sealed boxes long-term. The ability to nearly double up on MSRP right now had me unsure, but it’s not going to be easy for Wizards to find another way to reprint these staples. Wizards stated they didn’t want to crash card prices and instead only wanted to move them by degrees, and they succeeded in that. I just don’t think many people expected that be a few degrees higher.

I’ve got two unopened boxes of Modern Masters left, and these aren’t going anywhere. With Kiki-Jiki, Goyf, Bob and Clique all showing upward trends and many of the rares likely to do so as well, I see no reason why these boxes wouldn't climb over the next few years--especially considering how fun the limited format is, another fact made incredibly obvious in Vegas.

Looking at cards not the in the set, the spike on Chord of Calling feels like a buyout move to me, and I don’t expect $20+ to be real come Modern season, though I think $15 likely will be.

Casual Movers

Modern Masters wasn’t the only thing hot in Vegas, though it certainly gets most of the coverage.

Let’s start with the big ones–-the Eldrazi. Kozilek and Ulamog were both the subject of big pushes by dealers this weekend, and that seems right to me as these are steadily rising. I’m certain they’ll be targets for the next Modern Masters set, if not sooner, but for the meantime they’ll only continue to rise. While it’s been a steady and gradual climb for the past few months, the rate at which dealers were moving on these means I wouldn't be surprised to see them all suddenly spike to $50 either. These were getting bought at 80-90% of current retail this weekend by a few dealers, which is an unheard-of rate, if that tells you anything.

I also jammed some EDH at the Brainstorm Brewery house this weekend, and learned that the Primordial cycle is, in fact, insane. Previously I was just targeting Sylvan Primordial, but after watching them in action this weekend (and then more action from reanimation effects), I’m actually just grabbing every single one I see. No way these don’t become the Parallel Lives of the Block. As Jason pointed out last weekend, just get them all now before the community decides which one should be the most expensive.

“The Podcast House”

As the coverage team put it, “the Podcast House” was the focus of the weekend. The members of Brainstorm Brewery rented out a house, along with Heavy Meta and several awesome listeners (and some QS insiders). We had a ton of people come through to visit us.

The house was insane, and a lot of good times were had, even if I had to spend a little more time on-site. I want to say it was great to see and meet everyone I did, and I wish I had the entire weekend just to hang out with all the awesome people I met either at the house or on-site.

If I didn’t get a chance to meet/say hi/hang out with everyone, I’m sorry! I did the best I could while playing 15 rounds of Magic, but I enjoyed all the time I did get to see everyone. Let’s run it back at GenCon 🙂

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

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