| Quiet Speculation

Insider: Betting on the Armies of Man

Posted on October 30, 2012January 17, 2022 by Douglas Linn

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The big talk of the SCG Open in New Orleans this past weekend was the winning deck, a G/W aggro list that leans heavily on Humans. This week, we are going to look at the deck's performance, why it worked, and pick out some juicy speculation targets.

First though, I'd like to bring up a disconcerting decision from WOTC. Apparently, they think Magic Online Daily Events cause the metagame to be "solved" too quickly, so they have stopped posting the decklists of players who do well in them. Even more problematic is that they decided to tell people through a forum reply on the Wizards website, not even deigning to explain the decision or ask the players what they thought in an article. It's easy to dismiss this as irrelevant to us, but the Dailies are a superb way of figuring out what cards to keep an eye on in an early metagame. This decision will reward people with complex networks of friends who can collaborate and report what was doing well that day, and it will punish the semi-casual players who want to get their deck ready for a Daily event. This is not a good thing and the medium in which it was communicated tells us that WOTC still has a long way to go before they perfect public communication.

Back to that G/W deck. Here's the link for it.

Initial thoughts:

-Those are some weird 1-ofs

-This runs a lot of cards that are still pretty cheap

-This is probably misbuilt and it still did really well

-Technical problems prevented this tournament from being broadcast, meaning that fewer people know the results right now.

-There were no Zombies in the t16.

The problem with G/W decks, their major downfall, is that they lack enough card advantage to pull them out of a blowout. Brad, our heroic pilot, narrowly avoided a lot of blowouts in the T8 in the face of Supreme Verdict and the like. Time is not on the side of the G/W pilot because an Angel of Serenity can and will end the game on the spot - there's no coming back from losing your three guys and facing down a stern woman with wings. In the time before the opponent can get their game online, you've got to kill them while avoiding losing to the inevitable removal. Two cards distinctly help here.

Rancor is no surprise, returning to jump onto whatever is handy. Because Rancor is so easy to cash in with again, you can throw it around with impunity, enchanting tokens and small men that would normally not be worth the card. The other thing at work is Gavony Township, which can (slowly) rebuild your team, even if it's just 1/1s from a Gather the Townsfolk. Brad used Township several times to pump up his squad and you've got to have something like this on board to get more virtual card advantage rolling.

G/W is soft to every card, but it is strong versus a lot of decks. Let's unpack that. G/W cannot interact in really any interesting ways, so it's stuck using things like Oblivion Ring to kill stuff. If you've got Essence Scatter, it's going to hit. However, G/W decks can keep things coming, and while your Scatter might take out a monster, there are plenty sitting behind it. Brad's deck is full of cards that can become obscene when left unchecked and hey, Rancor makes even one monster coming through into a dangerous proposition. In one game, he threw two Rancors onto two tokens and crashed right on through.

Mayor of Avabruck and Cavern of Souls add a lot of latitude to the deck. Mayor is the pump spell, the Intangible Virtue that also attacks. Sure, there's plenty of removal for him, but aren't the other guys you're playing going to soak that up? Also, Mayor provides a crucial rebuilding role when your board has been wiped. If he flips, the game gets a lot more interesting. Cavern pushes the guys through; in the finals match, Caverns were essential in getting monsters on the board through Essence Scatters.

Finally, this deck can just unload man after man. I think Adrian Sullivan put it well in the Facebook comments of the semifinals when he noted that Brad beat a turn 3 Thragtusk from an opponent. How much more work do you need to do if you're the G/W deck? It wasn't even a sweetheart, out-of-nowhere golden combo. It was just the parts of the deck doing what they should do.

Breakout Cards and Known Hits

First, let's talk about Sigarda, Host of Herons. Sigarda is a 1-1 split here and an absolute monster. How does UWR deal with her? People have Supreme Verdicts but they only get four of them. In a weird way, Sigarda is costed so that you don't accidentally over-extend her into a Wrath effect. Sigarda is trending upward, now at $8 on CFB's buylist. I know a lot of QS Insiders are sitting on a lot of copies of this lady and she could hit double digits soon. Sell some if you need to make a profit, but the charts show her steadily ticking upward over time.

Next, how about Riders of Gavony? This reminds me of Dungeon Geists in a way because it packs the same power to cost and has a lockout effect. Name "Beast" and Thragtusk becomes much worse. Name "Vampire" and Olivia Voldaren has to sit on the sidelines. A Rider can swing a game quickly because an opponent isn't figuring that their blocker will get blown out by a 3/3. Again, we see a 1-1 split and I have to think that there's more room for these in the maindeck. Garruks can kill guys or spawn more Beast tokens, but this card can serve as functional removal. At fifty cents, they are a tempting target to jump on.

Silverblade Paladin is very exciting because she makes Rancor pull even more. You can deploy this on turn 2 with Avacyn's Pilgrim and a Rancor on either card (or a Mayor) on the next turn makes for an absurd amount of damage. Without these, it'd be hard to beat Thragtusks, that's for sure. The Paladin is as close as you'll find to a burn spell in the G/W deck and it gives incredible reach. Consider that an opponent has to rework all of their math to accommodate these; if they guess wrong and that Rancored Soldier token gets some soul, the game is over. These clock in at $4.25 right now and that's not cheap, but they are easily gotten in trades. I like it a lot. If G/W Humans is a deck, it needs four of these to get rolling.

I was surprised that Odric, Master Tactician actually had enough buddies to trigger now and then. Brad used it to bypass some big blockers. I presumed that this is a win-more card; if you're attacking with four guys, you should be profiting anyway. Turns out, Odric allows for attacks that might not otherwise occur. You wouldn't ram a Pilgrim into a bigger blocker, but it makes the human worth a lot more when Odric shows him the way around the defenders. This also shrugs off Rakdos Keyrune, which I presume would cause a lot of heartache in the midgame. Odric is just north of a dollar right now and he's unlikely to climb much beyond that. I say that because he's not critical to the deck and it's a spot you might be inclined to just cut out.

Note that only one Armada Wurm shows up, and that's in the sideboard. There are zero copies of Thalia, too. This is telling; you don't need either of these to do well, apparently. I'd mark those two mentally as "non-essential" and devalue them accordingly. I'm not sure that Wolfir Silverhearts or all those Garruks are the right call - don't you want Sigardas more? One cannot argue with results, though.

It remains to be seen whether this deck actually goes anywhere. If you see it doing well this week, the right calls are certainly Silverblade Paladin, Mayor and Champion of the Parish. For more gutsy callers, a deep investment in Riders of Gavony could pay off if they see more play. This is not a good time to jump into those cards, though! The metagame is still developing. I'd trade for just about all of the rares in this deck, but paying cash is a little too speculative at this point. Keep an eye on this deck, though. This is the thing that makes casual players come out of the woodwork to buy in for FNM. If you see more attention on it from big-name writers on SCG or CFB, you can count on a modest price bump. This may also be the thing that people with 120 Mayors in their MTGO account need to clear some inventory!

This is a deck that was able to shrug off multiple board-wipes, over and over. That's hard to do and it merits further attention. Aggro decks in general are less likely to make people speculate early, since smart people want to call a dumb aggro list winning a fluke. This means that there's still going to be a lot of time to get into position for G/W Humans if and when it heats up further.

Until next week,

-Doug Linn

Insider: Keep Timmy, Johnny and Spike in Your Binder

Posted on October 29, 2012January 17, 2022 by mathieu malecot

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Salesmanship has it's place in Friday Night Magic.Your ability to identify what kind of player is looking at your binder will go a long way in making sure you get maximum value from your trades.

I've previously described how to treat a binder like a retail space. Using simple concepts like maintaining full binders and spreading out value to encourage trade partners to stay in a binder will go along way in making trades more likely. Arranging your cards so they look good in your binder (color patterns, striping) and doing your best to break up trades into more transactions will make trading with you a more pleasurable experience.

But there is much more you can do with your binder that will result in easier, more profitable trades.

Identifying the kind of Magic player you are dealing with will make it easier for you to make offers. Instead of asking "Do you have anything in particular you are looking for?", you can make specific card recommendations. You can lean on your binder as a valuable source of player information simply by putting the right cards next to each other.

Before I describe this process in detail, on the off chance you don't know who Timmy, Johnny and Spike are, feel free to go to the source of these descriptors for reference.

The following is the 9 card layout from a page in my binder:

Spike wants my Abrupt Decay and Lotleth Troll. I suggest Slitherhead.

Timmy wants Ghoultree and Splinterfright. I suggest Revenge of the Hunted.

Johnny wants Jarad's Orders. I suggest Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord.

Now I will describe the page opposite the one above (so that both are displayed at the same time):

This two page layout maintains a "Magic order" as the cards are both the same colors and complimentary. Observing my trade partners gives me almost all I need to know about them to start trading. A quick psychology lesson: Spike wants suggestions that give them an edge, Timmy just wants something cool, while Johnny probably doesn't want you to suggest anything. That is why you let the layout guide them to their next idea.

Thankfully the suggestive layout of cards works on every kind of Magic player. This allows you the chance to try and move specific cards out of your binder by putting them in the right place.

See the following: A foil Talrand center page with a playset of foil Think Twice at the corners of the same page. I currently have foil Desperate Ravings in the spaces left over. Foil Think Twice is a cheap foil that can get great trade value, especially when someone decides it's a good fit in a Talrand deck.

If my trade partner is more interested in the Ravings they are probably more Johnny and maybe a Spike. So I can tell the difference, I have four Snapcaster Mage on the opposite page (right and left over and below Niv - Mizzet Johnny/Timmy identifier). The last four slots are filled with Izzet Charms.

I am careful to make each turn of the page a draw for the three archetypal Magic players. I also do my best to represent playable uncommons and commons on every turn.

If I want to trade out of a particular product, I make sure it sits next to more desirable cards. To encourage spontaneous trades, I try and put cards that play well together near each other and make targeted recommendations I make this seem normal by getting trades done quickly in small blocks. You can quickly build a great relationship with a variety of different players with trading frequency and on the mark assumptions about their card desires.

So, you think you've picked out your local Spikes, Johnnys and Timmys - now what?

You want to be Spike's go to guy for the latest tournament winning cards. Spike trades you value as cards leave their preferred area of competitive play. Spike also buys and sells to dollar cost ravage. They need cards at peak demand and sell when cards are out of favor regardless of that cards playability.

Timmy collects Dragons and Angels. Take a personal interest in their favorite "golden-beater" archetype. Timmy will trade value for pretty unplayable Demons. Timmy can turn a playset of Baleful Dragons into a playset of fastlands.

Johnny will take Commander cards. They love that Blood Clock and Umbilicus do the same thing. If they aren't interested in a particular competitive format, you can get a lot of value for random bulk buying into staples they aren't playing at the moment. If you need hot cards, Johnny is a good resource. He's the easiest guy to trade up with because he'll start moving away from cards as they get picked up by Spike.

If you feel adventurous, check out this research paper from the Graduate Business School of the University of Chicago. In it you'll see how retailers apply similar techniques to their shelf space as well as some interesting facts that likely apply to card trades, like how only 1/3 of purchases being planned.

Make your suggestions and trade frequently to make sure you get your piece of the remaining 2/3 this Friday.

Insider: The Value of Lands

Posted on October 29, 2012January 17, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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The market is on the move once again. Most of you probably saw Star City Games’ most recent stunt – they increased their buy price on Scalding Tarn and Misty Rainforest to $20. Their sell price similarly increased to $35 for NM copies. Incredible.

This simple change suggests so many underlying implications. We’ve already ruled out the biggest potential implication as false thanks to a timely tweet from Ben Bleiweiss:

The sigh of relief could be heard around the country.

But there are still other reasons Star City Games would want to artificially inflate the price of Zendikar Fetch Lands. For one, Modern season is around the corner and they will want to be well stocked. Additionally, Real Estate has always been one of the safest investments in Magic Cards. While supplies are considerably less, a quick check on blue Onslaught Fetch Lands prices suggests how high the Zendikar counterparts could go.

This recent movement in the market is a perfect time to revisit the importance of Land cards in MTG Finance. The more ubiquitous the lands, the safer the investment.

Double the Colors, Double the Price

I cannot even name all the Nonbasic lands in Magic. While all ten Dual Lands and Fetch Lands can be readily recalled by the savvy MTG speculator, most people can’t name the five Legendary Champions of Kamigawa lands so easily. When was the last time you’ve seen Eiganjo Castle legitimately played? (Although I see no reason not to play this cycle of lands in EDH.)

The inevitable truth is that color-fixing rare lands are disproportionately more financially relevant than those lands that produce one or zero colors of mana. And while cards like Karakas have earned recognizable spots atop the Nonbasic land food chain, the reality is that color fixing is so often needed that rare versions of “Dual Lands” are so often good investments.

The most recent case is of course the recent jump in Innistrad Dual Lands (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

I sure hope you were acquiring all five versions of these mana-fixers as I wrote avidly about them a few months ago. Most of these have neared their peak, with Woodland Cemetery winning the reward for most overpriced.

By the way, the only Innistrad Duals I haven’t sold yet are half my Hinterland Harbors and all of my Clifftop Retreats. I am hoping for a metagame shift with the release of Gatecrash, and this should give these two a chance to inch higher.

Pseudo-Dual Lands don’t have to be in Standard and Legacy to be financially relevant. Thanks to the advent of Modern there are so many lands that have value beyond EDH appeal. If it’s a rare land that produces two colors of mana reliably, and if it’s Modern legal, then it has value.

Filter Lands have rebounded significantly since their post-Standard rotation drop. Their pattern will likely be followed by Scars of Mirrodin Dual Lands, which are just starting to rebound from their bottom (chart from blacklotusproject.com). If Filter Lands are any indication, these “Fast Lands” are destined for a rebound, and they don’t face possible reprint in Modern Masters. Acquire accordingly.

Even going old school with Pain Lands can merit some value. Despite being reprinted many times in Core Sets, Pain Lands haven’t seen print since Tenth Edition. Not all of them are financially relevant, but the enemy colored versions haven’t been printed quite as much and may have some potential. Especially Shivan Reef, which sees Modern play and is a fun casual color combination (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

Because of the consistent playability of Pseudo-Dual Lands, I will always view these as solid investments. Reprints are always possible and even likely, and this does have an impact. Many Shock Lands will never be the same again because of their massive reprinting in Return to Ravnica. But as far as stable long term investments go, you could do much worse.

And for those who care, I did check – even the Unhinged card City of Ass is financially relevant. Foil copies are SOLD OUT at Star City games at $14.99. In this case, I think this is a legitimate “sold out” too. After all, now that mana burn is gone, City of Ass is strictly better than City of Brass.

Basic Lands Have Feelings Too

For stable long term investments, you could do even one better. There are five cards that are legal in every format and are always relevant in every metagame. I am, of course, talking about Basic Lands – the only cards that never rotate.

Yes these have been printed a zillion times. Yes Basic Lands are boring. But this does not preclude the fact that Basic Lands can be financially relevant. You just need to know where to look.

For starters, any full art basic land is noteworthy. Zendikar copies are the most common and they still buylist at $0.10, the same buylist price as regular foil lands. Foil Zendikar Lands are even more desirable, already buylisting up to $6. It may take a long time for these to reach $30 like foil Unhinged Basics, but I can Foresee no reason for foil Zendikar Basics to drop in the next few years. These are pretty safe to invest in.

I suppose it would be possible and even likely that Wizards once again prints a new set of full-frame basics. Players love them and their presence in a set helps to sell packs. If for some reason Wizards was lazy and reused the Zendikar art, or if they printed even sweeter artwork, then I could see Zendikar Basic Lands diminishing in popularity. The good news is there is something even safer.

No matter how many reprints Wizards may do, I will go out on a limb and suggest there are a few Basic Lands that will never be printed in a comparable form again. One of my favorites is the number one most frequently reprinted card ever – Mountain. The reason Mountain wins this prize is because it appeared alone in the Arabian Nights expansion.

As time passed, this unintended blip has created a rare, highly sought after Basic Land. How’s this for a stable price chart (from blacklotusproject.com):

Some wild fluctuations did take place but they were short lived and the general trend has been upwards. In fact, since early 2009 it looks like the card has nearly doubled in price. I wish all of my assets would double after 3 years. And since Wizards will never reprint or ban Arabian Nights Mountains, this is hands down one of the safest investments in the game. Just don’t expect a lot of daily discussion on it.

But if you thought Arabian Nights Mountain was the most valuable Mountain, you’d be dearly mistaken. Know which Basic Lands are even more valuable? How about these:

Those eBay listings are for one Mountain. Now over ten years old, Guru Promos are exceptionally rare and valuable. Guru Islands are the most expensive, hovering in the $120 range!!

But I wouldn’t do justice to the most valuable basics I’m aware of if I concluded my article here. Off the top of my head, there are one more set of five Basic Lands that are more expensive. They are so rare, in fact, that I couldn’t even find any listed for sale.

They are, of course, the Summer Magic Basics.

This image is from ABUGames’ website – it’s no surprise they have little Summer Magic in stock. But at least they had a price to reference. Star City Games didn’t even bother having a subpage available for Summer cards since they have 0 in stock! I would wager my life’s savings that Summer Magic Basic Lands will never get reprinted in any way.

So if you can find them, these must truly be one of the safest investments in the game of Magic – just be careful acquiring since finding an outlet to sell may be tough (think rare pieces of artwork).

Back to the Future

All of these Basic Lands are fascinating to the right buyer. I didn’t even mention some of the really obscure Basics, such as APAC lands, the Wald misprint, or my personal favorite, the Drudge Skeletons misprint.

Approaching Basic Lands and Pseudo-Dual Lands as key conservative investments for a diversified MTG portfolio is a solid strategy. They are always legal, they are unlikely to become obsolete, and they are always in demand. The less likely to be reprinted, the better. And in the extreme cases, Star City Games may take notice of their popularity and suddenly increase their price drastically, creating easy profit for you. This is why I loved Innistrad Dual Lands so much and it’s also why I’m acquiring Scars of Mirrodin Lands now even as we speak.

…

Sigbits – The Buylist Edition

After a short stint at a higher price, Star City Games has finally reduced their buy prices on Unhinged/Unglued Basic Lands. I’m not sure why, given that they will never drop in price. But I suppose they tried to force the price increase a little too prematurely.
Channel Fireball is buying Sigarda, Host of Herons at $8, a decent price vs. SCG’s buy price of $6. This was a great target going into Standard rotation, but I wouldn’t acquire too fervently at this price.
An even greater discrepancy lies in Terminus. Star City Games is buying this card at $5, which isn’t bad if you got in at $3 a while ago. However, you could do MUCH better selling to Channel Fireball, who is currently paying $8! I’m inclined to pull the trigger on my last extra copy and skip the eBay fees altogether.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Finding Value in RtR Mythics

Posted on October 26, 2012January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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This weekend will be the last big push for release events, after which player demand for tix will drop off. Instead of dumping any and all mythics and rares to the bots, drafters will start holding onto the odd card. They might even start thinking about playing Constructed as the high payout release events finish. On top of this, redemption for RtR is expected to start, which will upwardly bias the price of mythic rares. For more info on MTGO redemption and its impact on the digital Magic economy, see my previous article.

The novel block structure of the new Ravnica will impact availability of cards. In an ordinary block year, say with a large-small-small set structure, the first set is opened throughout the year in limited play. This would lead to the bottoming of junk mythic prices around third set release events, as that is the last big supply push from the Fall set.

This year there is an unprecedented new block structure of large-large-small, meaning a gap in opening RtR after the release of Gatecrash but before the release of 'Sinker', the as-of-yet unnamed third set. RtR junk mythics will be less available during this gap, so they should support higher price floors than past blocks' junk mythics.

On top of this, the presence of the shocklands means that demand from redeemers should be high. This presents a good motivation for buying RtR junk mythics while they are cheap, which generally coincides with release events. (Below are also presented my thoughts on purchasing the other mythic rares.)

If you are curious as to why I'm not considering any of the normal rares such as Lotleth Troll or Steam Vents, it is because the economics of MTGO do not favor buying these right now. There will be good opportunities to speculate on these down the road, but for now the mythic rares are the place to park your speculative capital.

The Rating System

Each mythic is followed by the current price and a rating, either Good Value, Fully Priced or Borderline. There are also two top picks presented, one for Top Junk Mythic Pick and another for Top Overall Pick.

Good Value -- At current prices or in the given price range, this card is a buy and I expect it to see higher prices in the medium- to long-term. These cards are the best speculative targets from a value perspective. They might never make a splash in competitive constructed formats, but the risk of loss, if bought at the suggested prices, is very low.
Fully Priced -- This is the other end of the spectrum, where downside risks are high. Fully Priced cards might maintain a high price, but further gains are doubtful. Do not buy these to speculate on at current prices.
Borderline -- This is somewhere in the middle of the other two, with some possibility of moving up or down in price. For cards with this rating, further scrutiny is required beyond just the price. If you have a large amount of capital, buy some amount of these cards and scoop up more if the price falls.

All prices are taken from cardbotmtgo.com and are current as of October 25th, 2012.

The Guild Leaders

All the guild leaders have playable stats and abilities for their casting cost. Most are good buy opportunities as they will probably not get any cheaper. None of them have made a dent in Constructed yet, meaning they still have potential for large price increases from current levels.

Isperia, Supreme Judge: The Azorius guild leader has fallen close to junk levels but a 6/4 flier for six mana should not be discounted from Standard play. This is a buy at 1 ticket or less. 1.00 tix and Good Value.

Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord: I've been buying this one at 1.3 to 1.8 tix and will gladly keep doing so. The possibility of a 'graveyard matters' deck emerging can't be ignored. 1.64 tix and Good Value.

Niv-Mizzet, Dracogenius: This dragon has hovered around 2.5 tix during release events. It's a buy for 3 tix or less. 3.00 tix and Good Value.

Rakdos, Lord of Riots: This one has dipped below 2 tix. It has the most impressive natural stats compared to casting cost of any of the guild leaders and it's my best guess for the one most likely to impact Standard in the near future. 1.95 tix and Good Value.

Trostani, Selesnya's Voice: Among the guild leaders, this card has held the highest price, probably due to the appeal of the populate mechanic. Buy this one in the 2 to 3 tix range, but steer clear at higher prices. 3.82 tix and Borderline.

The Fatties

Angel of Serenity: One of the breakout mythics from RtR. Buy this one if you are looking to play Standard but otherwise look elsewhere for value. 16.86 tix and Fully Priced.

Armada Wurm: This card's restrictive casting cost limits what decks it can be played in. On top of that, it's not clear you even want this effect in Standard at the 6+cc slot. 8.08 tix and Fully Priced.

Necropolis Regent: I am a big advocate of this card as a speculative target. It's from a popular tribe, has stats and casting cost close to a titan, and can affect the board the turn it comes into play. Its current price indicates the market is treating it as a junk mythic with no other potential. This is incorrect as the card does have some small potential for constructed play. If you had to buy one junk mythic, but this one at prices up to 0.8 tix. 0.71 tix, Good Value and Top Junk Mythic Pick.

Utvara Hellkite: Large red dragons at the mythic rarity have a long history of ending up as junk mythics with value only to redeemers. It's worthwhile getting this at 0.4 tix and paying up to 0.6 tix is OK. 0.64 tix and Good Value.

Worldspine Wurm: The fact that this card cannot be reanimated removes one of the only ways it might have seen constructed play. This is a junk mythic with value only to redeemers. Worth getting at 0.4 tix, paying up to 0.6 tix is OK. 0.65 tix and Good Value.

X-Spells

Epic Experiment: Recent buzz on this card has driven up the price. I really liked this one at 2 tix or less, but at 3-5 tix, I'd be hesitant to buy without further evidence of it spawning a successful archetype. If it drops down to 1.5-3 tix over the coming months, put this back on the buy list. 3.38 tix and Borderline.

Rakdos's Return: At 6.5 tix it's not clear whether this card matters enough to Standard to hold its price. 6.98 tix and Borderline.

Sphinx's Revelation: This card looks like it will be a staple in control decks as a one- or two-of. This suggests it will carry a higher price floor than the other two x-spells. Buy this one in the 4-6 tix range. 6.48 tix and Good Value.

Planeswalkers

Jace, Architect of Thought: Buy this one if you are interested in playing it in Standard as it appears to be one of the top cards from RtR and should remain a part of the metagame for the next two years. In terms of value, look elsewhere. 28.86 tix and Fully Priced.

Vraska the Unseen: This planeswalker has seen little play in Standard as of yet but looks powerful in the abstract. A somewhat reasonable comparison could be made to Venser, the Sojourner as another 5cc, multi-coloured planeswalker whose name starts with the letter 'v'. Venser's floor, shown in this chart, suggests that Vraska will have a difficult time going below 6 tix. Based on this analysis, paying 6 to 7 tix for this card is a good bet with little downside risk. If I had to pick one card to speculate on out of all the RtR mythics, this would be it. 8.03 tix, Good Value and Top Overall Pick.

Outlook

Avoid buying the Fully Priced mythics as speculative targets but keep your eyes on the Borderline ones. For any of the Good Value mythics presented here, one should be willing to buy and hold these cards for 12+ months. It's possible that they never break out in Constructed, but purchasing at current low prices ensures that risk is kept to a minimum. Any price spikes due to an uptick in Standard play should be taken as opportunities to sell. Otherwise, redemption will support the price of all junk or near-junk mythics moving forward.

Insider: How to Make Money From Your Cube, Part 1

Posted on October 25, 2012January 17, 2022 by Ryan Abcede

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Picture the following…

You are hanging around with a couple of friends at a GP having a great time. The trading tables have pretty much dried up. Most of you scrubbed out of the event hours ago but are still up to game. Someone suggests a Cube draft. You smile.

In the world of Cubes, your Cube is your favorite. It is your fingerprint on the Magic community. It acts as an extension of your personality and highlights everything you love about Magic. So you happily bust out your pimped Cube, the pride and joy of your collection. You’ve had your Cube for several years now. You’ve watched it grow and mature just as much as you have over the years. It started out as a simple spreadsheet of cards delicately pieced together by you over days of pouring over the entire Magic card pool. It was so long ago you can’t remember what it looked like then. You can still remember some of the trades that lead up to your current masterpiece. Some involved groups of cards worth more than the car you drove to the GP in.

After the packs are made, the draft is done and you start to battle you look around to find your cube so you can put away some of your cards. It isn’t where you thought you placed it last.

No worries, one of you friends probably pushed it to the side, or put their jacket on top of it. You ask around the table, no one says they remember moving it. Everyone was too busy having a great time.

You feel the world slowly blurring around you.

You look under the table. Nothing. You check your backpack. Nothing.

You ask your friends if you can check their bags just in case someone, anyone, put it into their bag by mistake to get it out of the way in the minutes before everyone started to draft and have a great time. One by one you open their bags. You see binders, boxes, bottles of water and heck even Crown Royale dice bags but not your Cube.

Your head feels like it is on fire, your heart feels like it is in your feet. The life of your cube flashes before your eyes in an instant. Is this really happening?

Reality starts to sink in. Your Cube is gone.

Stories like this are sadly a reality that we have to live with in today’s world of Magic. With the rising cost of cards and the trend towards pimping out Cubes and Commander decks you can easily have over several thousand dollars worth of cards sitting in a simple, portable cardboard box. Vintage decks can be worth more than some cubes and can fit in a jacket pocket!

Thieves really understand this and are targeting Magic players and their cards at large events. These are not scummy players who would steal someone’s cards here or there if the opportunity came up. They are professional thieves with a plan. They are organized and experienced. They know what they want and know how to get it. Simply watching your stuff better is not a foolproof way to stop your things from being stolen by these professionals.

The only real defense against them is to not take expensive things like your Cube of Commander decks to a big event. Submitting to the enemy and letting them effect how we enjoy Magic is a solution but I don’t think anyone wants to actually do that. In the end we all want to play Magic and the only way to do this is to swallow the risk and bring our cards to events.

There is however a compromise which I am more than ok with because it has some pleasant benefits. In our current culture of ultimate pimping, what I am about to say may be blasphemous to some but in the end it is a choice we all have to make on our own. Depowering, Depimping, Cheaping out or whatever you like to call it should be the new trend. It is a great way to lower the cost of your Cube without lowering the play value you get out of it; however, I wouldn’t go as far as proxying an entire cube unless it is high end proxys like this guy makes. At that point the cards stop being proxies and become labors of love and no one can look down at someone’s Cube for that.

There are a few steps to depimp any Cube. You can take any or all of these steps. Whatever you are comfortable with. Be warned though, once you depimp in one aspect you will probably start to realize that how much value is actually sitting in your Cube that can easily be used elsewhere in a much more efficient manner. Depimping could end up growing your collection and taking it to places you never dreamed of. It could also get you a new computer/laptop/tablet or heck even a car depending on how much you actually pimped out your Cube.

Step 1: Defoilize

We’ll start off with the easiest way to significantly cut the value of your Cube, cutting out the foils. You will never foil out an entire cube without making some sort of sacrifices to card quality so instead of looking at your Cube as half foiled, look at it as half non foiled. This makes it easier mentally to accept the depimping.

Foils on average are worth close to double what their normal non-foil versions are; however, this is only a rough general rule. Most foils actually break this generalization, or at least Cube playable foils usually do. Older foils can be worth three to four times more than their counterparts. It really depends on the card, the set, the era of Magic it came from and definitely if it is playable in Legacy. With all that extra value sitting in a shiny metallic layer of the card, it is pretty much a no brainer: stop foiling your Cubes people! If you are still hesitant, just calculate how much value is sitting in the foil portion of your Cube. I am sure the number will be over what you thought it was.

Step 2a: Bring on the ICE

Stopping at foils may be enough for some people but there are definitely more ways to lower the value of your Cube. Using the lowest versions of specific cards in your Cube can drastically decrease the value sitting in your Cube. It really depends on what cards are in your cube to begin with. Changing from a Revised Sol Ring to a Commander Sol Ring won’t really do anything so keep those as they are. But changing from a Beta Sol Ring to a Commander Sol Ring is exactly what you should be doing. Pretty much anything from Mercandian Masques going forward should be fine to use any version. The differences in price between something like 8^th edition (white border) Bribery and a Mercadian Masques (black border) Bribery is zero or close to zero depending on what price scale you are using. The real opportunity is to use International/Collector’s Edition cards as well as World Championship deck cards.

Collector’s Edition and International Edition, or more commonly known as ICE, were produced as boxed set versions of the original Core set: Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited. There were over 9000 Collector's Edition printed and 5000 International sets printed. They have square borders but other than that they look like Alpha/Beta cards from the front. On the card back they have either International Edition or Collector’s Edition printed on them as well as a gold border instead of a black border. At a glance if they are in a black sleeve it is very hard to tell the difference between ICE cards and Alpha/Beta cards because the only real visual cue is the squared borders. These cards are not worthless but they are the cheapest option of the most expensive cards in the game.

The main cards people turn to ICE for are Dual lands. They are generally half the price of Revised Dual lands and significantly less than the price of any Alpha/Beta Dual. The bonus is they look just as good as any Beta with their black borders. Plateau has its original artwork, which is also a plus in my books. Most ICE cards you find are pretty mint because for the most part these cards have never been played with. If you have a powered Cube, ICE Power 9 offers significant discounts as well.

Here is a price comparison between ICE cards and their counterparts. ICE cards move in price a lot slower than the regular playable versions but, in the end, they pretty much operate as a percentage of the Revised versions. This means there are similar opportunities to invest in them as there are in constructed playable Duals, but the market is much smaller.

	Revised	ICE	Beta
Bayou	$80	$50	$600
Badlands	$60	$40	$600
Plateau	$45	$35	$600
Savannah	$100	$40	$700
Scrubland	$70	$40	$600
Taiga	$60	$40	$600
Tropical Island	$110	$60	$1300
Tundra	$120	$60	$1100
Underground Sea	$150	$70	$1500
Volcanic Island	$130	$50	$1300

They still do put a dent in your wallet but if you want something cheaper than Revised Duals but something that looks as good as a Beta card these are the cheapest options you have.

Other than Duals and Power 9, I would only downgrade cards like Berserk that are in Beta but not in Revised. The majority of ICE cards that are available in Revised are actually more expensive than their revised counterparts. Not by much but if you really want to get every penny out of your Cube I wouldn’t go changing from a Revised Sol Ring to a CE Sol Ring.

There is also a far-fetched, yet plausible factor that comes into play. Conveniently, Ben Bleiweiss wrote an article on the matter a while back. In it he detailed the “what if” scenario of allowing ICE cards into the constructed card pool. With the provisions in the rules regarding Dual Faced Cards now in place, the ability for WotC to change their take on the legality of ICE cards in tournament play could actually change. I have my doubts that it will ever happen, but if it does ICE cards will all skyrocket above their Unlimited cousins but somewhere below their Beta brothers.

Join me tomorrow when I dissect the other end of Gold cards and ask the age-old question, What Would a Cheapo Do?

Q:

- from

Kelly: Response

Where have all the Delvers gone?

Posted on October 25, 2012October 25, 2012 by Mike Lanigan

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Over the past few weeks, I have written about a lot of cool decks. The one I'm still playing I shared in this column. It's basically the shell from last season's blue-white Delver of Secrets deck with red mana added. Usually when I create a new deck I have to put up a big finish with it before I feel vindicated. As it turns out, I still feel satisfied when other players prove the deck’s worth.

What I mean is that the Japanese recently showed this archetype is viable in the current Standard. Their innovation was the addition of Thundermaw Hellkite. I was moving towards Talrand, Sky Summoner, but Hellkite is even better. The other major change I had already adopted, which is cutting the Delver of Secrets altogether.

Here's the Japanese version:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Geist of Saint Traft

4 Snapcaster Mage

4 Restoration Angel

2 Thundermaw Hellkite

Spells

3 Detention Sphere

2 Azorius Charm

4 Dissipate

2 Essence Scatter

2 Izzet Charm

3 Searing Spear

2 Unsummon

4 Pillar of Flame

Lands

4 Clifftop Retreat

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Hallowed Fountain

2 Moorland Haunt

4 Steam Vents

4 Sulfur Falls

1 Island

1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Dungeon Geists

2 Negate

2 Purify the Grave

4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

2 Chandra, the Firebrand

1 Jace, Memory Adept

1 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

Obviously this version is geared toward the midgame unlike the previous hyper-aggressive versions of Delver, but in this metagame that is not a problem. I have been saying since the start of the format that counters are a real thing and everyone should be playing them or playing around them. Hopefully now some players will start to listen. I have been continuously impressed by every counter available, including Syncopate, Dissipate and Essence Scatter. They are all good and you should consider them during deck construction.

This past weekend, two players at the Star City Indy tournament also showed us that the deck is real. Todd Anderson was the big name who did well with the deck, and basically he said that Syncopate was the card that makes the deck work. Being able to counter something on turn two is very important. If the game goes into double-digit turns, the card becomes worse but overall Syncopate is one of the lynch pins of the deck. Take a look at his list:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Geist of Saint Traft

4 Snapcaster Mage

4 Restoration Angel

2 Thundermaw Hellkite

Spells

2 Detention Sphere

4 Azorius Charm

1 Dissipate

2 Essence Scatter

3 Searing Spear

4 Syncopate

2 Unsummon

4 Pillar of Flame

Lands

4 Clifftop Retreat

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Hallowed Fountain

1 Moorland Haunt

4 Steam Vents

4 Sulfur Falls

1 Island

1 Mountain

1 Plains

Sideboard

3 Dungeon Geists

2 Dissipate

2 Negate

2 Purify the Grave

2 Sundering Growth

1 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

3 Supreme Verdict

The two decks are quite similar, but Todd did make some important changes. The most notable change was to up the number of counters to a total of seven. Honestly, I think that is one too few. This is unconventional wisdom for current Magic, but I have been jamming more and more counters into my list as well so I am definitely on board with this "new" way of thinking. Also keep in mind that Snapcaster Mage essentially counts as a counter himself.

The reason counters are so good in this format is because the threats are so amazing. That seems counter-intuitive, but it is actually true. What removal spell can you play that will deal with the diverse threats in Standard? You need to be able to answer Geralfs Messenger, Thragtusk, Jace, Architect of Thought, Entreat the Angels and Silverblade Paladin just to name a few. Even if we were limiting the discussion to creatures alone, most removal spells can't measure up. That’s what makes a catch-all counterspell so amazing.

Another reason this deck is so powerful is because Geist of Saint Traft did not suddenly get worse when the format rotated. He is still one of the best aggressive creatures ever printed and players still have a hard time dealing with him. Clone effects are no longer a legitimate way to kill Geist and you make blocking difficult because of cards like Restoration Angel and Unsummon.

The rest of the threats in this deck are hard to deal with as well. Between your two flash creatures and tokens from Moorland Haunt, there is very little you do on your turn. The one card that breaks this rule is Thundermaw Hellkite, which until recently was missing a home in the metagame. He is so good that I am testing out a third copy main deck. Often over the course of the game you drop your opponent to a low life total and struggle to deal the final blow. Just like in baseball, Hellkite is your closer. You bring him in at the end of the game and he finishes your opponent off.

My list is constantly changing as I make adjustments to the metagame each week. Here's the current iteration:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Geist of Saint Traft

4 Snapcaster Mage

3 Restoration Angel

3 Thundermaw Hellkite

Spells

3 Pillar of Flame

3 Searing Spear

1 Mizzium Mortars

2 Essence Scatter

4 Syncopate

2 Dissipate

2 Detention Sphere

2 Azorius Charm

2 Unsummon

1 Cyclonic Rift

Lands

4 Clifftop Retreat

4 Glacial Fortress

4 Hallowed Fountain

2 Moorland Haunt

4 Steam Vents

4 Sulfur Falls

1 Island

1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Dungeon Geists

2 Dissipate

2 Negate

3 Purify the Grave

1 Sundering Growth

1 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage

3 Supreme Verdict

One important change I want to discuss is the cut down to two copies of Azorius Charm. Recently, I have been unimpressed with this card and I keep removing more copies of it from my deck. I am not too far off from cutting it altogether. Against any aggressive deck like Zombies or Humans, the card does some major work by slowing your opponent down, but in every other match you almost always use the draw a card option. Cycling a card can be helpful, but I would rather play a spell that's relevant.

The one copy each of Mizzium Mortars and Cyclonic Rift is a recent change for me that came from cutting Izzet Charm. Once I cut Izzet Charm, I wanted a third Unsummon but the overload card seemed better in many situations. The same thing goes for Mizzium Mortars. I was going to play a fourth Searing Spear, but instead added the sorcery version because of the overload option. Once you take these things into account, the numbers in the deck start making sense. The spells basically break down as follows:

8 counterspells
3 bounce spells
9-11 removal spells (depending on modes for the charm)

This is the type of thinking I use when I am making a deck. How many of each type of effect do I want? Playing less than four copies does make you draw them less frequently, but it also allows you to play a more diverse set of answers. If the two overload cards work out as well as I think they will, I could definitely see replacing the Azorius Charms with another copy of each. I am very happy with my current list and it's a solid choice for the metagame.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the…the…something about American, or colors, or temp…hmm…

Let’s change it up.

Until Next Time,

Don’t forget to have fun playing this awesome game of Magic!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
(I'm active on twitter again, so send me a message sometime.)
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Good Luck, High Five! Episode 8: Fried or Fertilized

Posted on October 24, 2012 by Mike Hawthorne

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(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)

Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

Insider: Draftcycling Reboot

Posted on October 24, 2012January 17, 2022 by Chad Havas

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A little over a year ago I rebooted my trade collection due to an unfortunate turn of events and set a plan in motion to rebuild. In my article “What’s your Plan?” I talked about how itemizing your priorities is important to anyone’s goal, and it’s something I’ve revisited a number of times since then. For me, this is not just the most important and fundamental aspect of speculating and trading, but also important to accomplishing goals in my life. Since then, I’ve managed to trade my way through a full cycle of PTQ seasons, starting with Limited, then Modern and finally Standard. Now that we’re back full circle to Limited, I want to update my plan, as my situation has changed, and this raises an opportunity to really detail how to make and follow a plan.

Since last year I’ve become a DCI Level 2 Judge, and as such I’ll be working at a handful of PTQs and not able to play in as many as I’m used to. This is a change I’ve chosen, in part because I’m making a commitment to make up for it with additional play on MTGO. In the past, MTGO has been a casual hobby for me, firing up a draft once or twice a month, when I’m too busy to play otherwise; while drafting with the ringers at the LGS has been my mainstay. While I don’t expect this to change too much, I don’t expect to be traveling to as many events, unless I’m judging. My higher level play will have to be done on MTGO. Making this switch has a lot of complexities, and formulating a solid plan for this is extremely important to my success.

What are my goals? This is the first step in formulating a plan. If you don’t know what you want to achieve, it is impossible to optimize the steps to get there. Don’t just think about it. You’re reading this right now thinking, “I know what my plan is...” Prove it. Write your goal down. In your own handwriting. Read it back to yourself out loud. Put it away somewhere, or digitize it.

For me? My goal is to be able to play 4-6 drafts per week, and within a year have a complete Standard collection. If I had infinite funds, this goal would be simple. But, nothing is ever simple. I still have a paper collection to maintain and, luckily for me, i do have some amount of MTGO product to begin with.

What’s your goal?

So, you’ve got a goal. Now you need to come up with strategies to attain it. What are the obstacles that prevent this from being a reality right now? For me, I’m unwilling to simply shell out the cash to buy a complete Standard collection while at the same time bankrolling multiple drafts per week. First, I need to decide what drafting will cost me, if I’m not planning to sell the cards. Drafting is the best way to obtain Standard cards as you get value from opening your product by getting the opportunity for prize packs. Plus it actively unites my two goals. T

o make things easy, we’ll assume I’m a perfectly average 8-4 drafter (although I’d like to think I’m better than that). Given that, I should be able to split the finals of a draft 2 out of 8 times (25%). Meaning my expected earnings from each draft are 6 packs times 25%, or 1.5 packs. It costs 3 packs and 2 tickets to draft, and I expect 1.5 packs in return, so if I want to draft 4 times per week that will cost me 8 tickets plus 6 packs. At full retail that’s 8x$1 + 6x$4= $32/week or $128/month. This would also mean I cycle through 12 packs per week in singles, or a “box” every 3 weeks.

Will drafting at this rate get me all the Standard cards I need? Well after opening 125 packs I would expect (on average) to have 1 of each Mythic and 2 of each Rare. At my projected rate, this would take about 10 weeks, so in the ~14 weeks until Gatecrash is released on MTGO I should get a decently close, combined with the 1 pack of RTR I’ll be drafting when the Block completes in Spring. I’m satisfied that I’ll get close enough to a playset that I’ll be able to trade cards I don’t need for ones I do.

So essentially at $128 per month, with no additional work, this could be attainable. But not only do I not want to spend that kind of money, I’d like to try and make some money. This means I’ll need to be doing some careful speculation, and it will be important to keep this separate from the Standard collection I’m building. For this purpose, I plan to speculate mostly on Modern cards, and Innistrad Block cards, as by the time I finish my Standard collection, these will have rotated. I think it’s realistic that if I invest $200 into tickets, that I could garner enough profits to contribute the 8 tickets per week towards the draft and at least a couple of the boosters, reducing my actual cost to ~$15 per week.

How can I do this?

I plan to use mtggoldfish.com as a huge resource for following trends of Modern cards, especially with the reprinting of shocklands and people’s buzz about the upcoming Modern Masters sets. I expect to see decent fluctuations over the next 6 months, at least enough to ride a couple waves up and down. Long term, i plan to pick up on Zendikar fetches, but in order to see some smaller gains in the short term to immediately aid the drafting cause I’m going to be watching waves of Innistrad lands, as well as underplayed Mythics which tend to have the biggest swings. This happens because people end up needing them for redemption, so even the bad Mythics are easy to move and because when they suddenly appear in a top deck, the demand skyrockets.

Each week I’ll be updating my portfolio here in my article, and talking about how this plan changes and what strategies I’ve found to be successful. My first task will be to identify the best bots to buy and sell boosters to, and the best method for selling cards once they’ve reached a point I want to get out of a speculation. Having these mechanisms set up before I enter the market is extremely important so you don’t end up stuck with a speculation you can’t dump at the prime moment.

I’d love to hear feedback and advice about my new project. Another set of opinions from a new set of eyes is something entrepreneurs are often too prideful to allow. Take other people’s wisdom and consider them, but don’t follow them blindly.

See you on MTGO!

Insider: Tricks of the Trade – Thankfulness

Posted on October 24, 2012January 17, 2022 by Gervaise Pechler

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I hope you enjoyed the Pro Tour last weekend. I enjoyed it with friends while playing on Magic Online, doing Sealed Release Events to practice for the upcoming PTQ and Grand Prix. I am still improving on that front, but it allows me to explore the Magic bots, MODO trading and the interface of MODO.

I have also encountered a lot of humans while trading and the communication with them has – surprisingly – been a very good experience. Also, while playing against my opponents, sometimes we talk more than just "GL" and "HF", and sometimes even talk about strategy afterwards, regardless of what ELO they have.

The Practical Nuts and Bolts

Mostly when trading where people have a Buy advertisement on the new RtR cards, they put decimals behind their cards. Generally it is [Floor price] + [decimal]. Typically when I PM them, I want to unload my bulk since bots are giving ridiculously low prices and it is not worth the time to search for the best bulk bot. When talking with them and negotiating most people are just standing by their advertisement. Often, one can recognize this from the style of writing they use in their ad.

Now, people like me just put in there 'Buying X for y tickets', and with those people I interacted with, they were very willing to round it up. What is even more remarkable is that they mentioned they do not need extra cards to fill the gap since I typically offer them something extra for their effort. Yet what surprised me the most is that people mention in the chat that I am a nice guy (or girl even!), and add me on their buddies list to keep in touch and make future trades. This little extra value you get from other players is a huge edge to be gained by just simply utilizing written communication.

From MODO to MOTL to IRL

This lesson can also be brought to MOTL, online trading for paper magic, or even face-to-face trading in a Grand Prix, Local Game Store, etc. I wanted to write about this when I was brainstorming article topics I could write about for QS during my Management class. But the main impetus for me to write this article came when I was studying Gary Vaynerchuk’s video about the ‘Thank You’ Economy. His target audience is entrepreneurs but I feel this can also apply to us as speculators, traders, or even store owners.

The video below starts with Gary explaining his way of thanking his customers. I really got inspired by watching his speech and I hope you also get something out of it. A disclaimer, he does use profanities, but I think it emphasizes his passion about what he is talking about.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lcqCAqZtedI&t=23m45s

I think that for any web-based service, one should use this simple yet so powerful ‘Thank you’. One can take it one step further, like Gary did, and buy a jersey of a client’s favorite football team. When I sell or trade cards online, I mention at least three times that I am thankful for their purchase or trade. I do that when I exchange addresses, I write it on the paper that goes in the envelop, and when they give me a notification that they have received my shipment. If anything goes wrong with the order I also mention it and try to resolve it as best as I can.

I am not the only one using this method as I have noticed one of the Irish Magic players posted a picture on Facebook of his StarCity Order. It was neither about the cards he ordered, nor about some mistake StarCity made with his order. The photo he posted had a big written "Thank You!", and he was willing to share it with other Irish players. Now I am terribly sorry that I did not take a screenshot of this, but think of how easy it is to create positive energy simply by writing ‘Thank You’ on the back of the paper. Now, for an individual this might be less impactful than for a business that has a brand and logo, but I still think you can increase profitability immensely.

According to a study called Effect of Server's “Thank You” done by Bruce Rind and Prashant Bordia in 1995, they concluded that waitresses who write a simple "Thank You" on the back of the checks increased tip percentages from 16% to 18%, compared to if she just wrote nothing. I feel that we can apply this in Magic as well. With selling, I want to keep contact before I send the orders, slightly after I have sent the orders to the post office, and even after the conclusion of the sale. I think that a lot of merchants are just selling/trading cards, and are always moving on to the next one without any further communication. Establishing good relationships with online traders is just as important as it is when trading at your LGS. The growing reach one has nowadays when utilizing trading via mail is vast.

Now, the type of communication we use is entirely different when trading in person compared to trading online on MODO or trading by post on a platform like MOTL. I feel that improving in both non- and verbal communication is essential for creating a solid foundation of trade relationships with people. That way I strongly feel that we as avid traders and speculators can be one step ahead of our competition is by showing our gratefulness to our clients.

Putting It All To Work

Meanwhile, in the new trading season after the release of Return to Ravnica, I am in the process of moving out my Bonfire of the Damneds, Vraska the Unseen, and Foil Jace, Architect of Thoughts to traders who still need them for any deck or collection. This is not a sell call because I feel that these cards will drop in demand and value in the coming weeks until Gatecrash's release. I am mostly looking for stable EDH cards or Modern staples for the PTQ season after the current PTQ Gatecrash season.

Talking about Pro Tours, the breakout card at the Pro Tour was definitely Deathrite Shaman. At first I had Epic Experiment in mind since my friend who joined the Dutch testing team (did you see Frank Karsten's crazy 60 highlander deck go 4-1!?) mentioned Epic Experiment in their testing gauntlet. I am not actively going to buy Deathrite Shamans as of now because the supply of Return to Ravnica cards is still relatively low. It will be drafted and sealed will be played a lot, especially since this PTQ season is sealed.

I sincerely hope you liked the article. As always if you have any comments or want to give me feedback, please do! I appreciate your input! I booked my flight to my first Grand Prix which is going to be Lisbon (RtR Sealed), so if there are any QS members attending that one too, I would love to meet up!

Gervaise

References

^{Bruce Rind and Prashant Bordia, ''Effect of Server's 'Thank You' and Personalization on Restaurant Tipping,'' Journal of Applied Social Psychiatry 25, no. 9 (1995), 745-51}

How Lucky

Posted on October 24, 2012October 23, 2012 by Ryan Overturf

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It’s strange to me that people throw around the word “lucky” like it’s an insult. Telling your opponent what a sack they are when they miracle a Bonfire of the Damned doesn’t do anything to lessen their victory. Nobody is going to be offended by the fact that they have above-average fortune, and frankly it’s a bit short-sighted to resent somebody for this fact.

Before I say too much here, it’s important to discuss what exactly is meant by luck. For many, all instances of luck fall under the category of “dumb luck”. To be lucky is simply the act of being in the right place at the right time and those who get lucky do nothing to deserve it. I was raised to believe differently than this. There’s an old saying that my father taught me that paints luck in a very different light:

Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity

Basically, one who is more prepared for more situations will get lucky more often, as the opportunities that they face will more often match the situations for which they are prepared.

So what the hell does this have to do with getting Bonfire’d for lethal? Does this make miracling a Bonfire any more than pure happenstance? I’d argue yes. Obviously you can’t cast any Bonfires that aren’t in your deck, so the mere inclusion of the card can be qualified as preparing to blow people out with it. But it goes much deeper than that.

Let’s talk about Bonfire in the context of Jund. Cards like Huntmaster of the Fells and Rakdos Keyrune play fantastically well with Bonfire of the Damned. Against aggressive decks they force the aggressor into committing more creatures to attack profitably (and later die to any miracle Bonfires), and against slower decks they apply pressure leaving the opponent at a more Bonfireable life total.

It might feel bad the moment that they turn their miracle over and wreck you with it, but the next time you get Bonfired consider how your opponent played the game leading up to this event and whether or not you could’ve played in a way to prevent getting wrecked. Also, consider whether your deck is even well-equipped to battle a Bonfire.

Did your opponent make plays that prepared themselves to win with Bonfire? Did you make plays that gave them the opportunity to do so? Thinking this way will remove those dangerous thoughts of “dumb luck” from your Magic experience.

Over-Metagaming

Another area where I hear players complain about luck is in regard to the matchups that they played against in a given tournament.

Let’s say that you’re gearing up to play some Standard and you decided to play a deck with a phenomenal Zombies matchup, but with poor game against slower decks. Are you in the right to complain when you don’t play against Zombies all day?

Not really.

Sure, Zombies is going to be a substantial portion of the metagame, but it won’t likely boast more than 20-30% of a room. When you build to beat up on one deck you often leave yourself underprepared to win against the rest of the field. It is a form of under-preparation that will leave you likely to get unlucky.

Most of the time you can't build to beat everything, but that doesn't make building to beat just one thing right.

Playing Into It

One of my favorite pastimes is watching Phil Hellmuth videos on Youtube. Hellmuth will frequently find himself losing large pots and accusing his opponent of playing worse than he did. Sometimes he’s right, but mostly he fails to think on the same level of his opponent. That is not to say that he plays worse necessarily, but that he fails to read what his opponent is thinking and plays as if he was playing against himself.

What I’m getting at is that Hellmuth will put his opponent on what he would have in a given situation and applies that to his opponent rather than considering what outs his opponent has. As a result he ends up playing right into his opponent’s hand a lot of the time. If you can think of outs that your opponent has for your play then you’re not fooling anybody by pretending that your play is “genius” or unbeatable.

When you overcommit into a Bonfire that you don’t have to or play a deck that isn’t good against a reasonable percentage of the metagame, saying that there is something wrong with the game rather than your preparation is foolish behavior and it makes you look like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xf0IcYY_O28

Not Mulliganing

Another favorite pastime of mine is chuckling at people that rage about drawing too many/few lands. This weekend at the TCG Player 5K I kept this hand on the play against Mono-Red:

To the surprise of nobody I drew four lands and died in not-so-dramatic fashion.

I had a deck full of Centaur Healer, Thragtusk and Sphinx's Revelation, and I kept this garbage. With this hand, I basically need a two drop and/or a Centaur Healer in my first three draws to not just die, especially considering that my Knight is AWFUL against Stromkirk Noble and Ash Zealot. My opponent even had the Noble! How Lucky!

Alternatively, if I mulligan I get to see six fresh cards which gives me considerably higher odds of having a turn three Centaur Healer. I didn't commit the actions available to me to help generate the opportunities that I wanted.

Another interesting thing about this game was that when I played my Restoration Angel my opponent Thunderbolted it. I wasn’t familiar with monored sideboards and I was not at all prepared for that to happen. Meanwhile my opponent was clearly prepared for me to be casting an Angel.

Was he lucky to have the Thunderbolt for the exact card that it’s good against in my deck? Sure, but it certainly wasn’t dumb luck. I kept a hand that was ice cold to Thunderbolt because I was underprepared and he found himself getting the opportunity for which he was prepared.

There’s quite a bit more to say on this topic and it is one that will likely be worth revisiting in the future, particularly with regard to constructing decks that are best suited to combat the greatest number of possible situations.

I realize that the brief mention of my Bant deck without a list is a bit of a tease, but I haven’t been able to compile all of my thoughts on the deck just yet. Expect a write-up about it for next week.

If you can’t wait that long I was streaming an 8-man with the deck last night and talked a bit about the list. The video for this can be found here:

http://www.twitch.tv/goodluckhighfive

Until next time, be prepared; high five!

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Jason’s Archives: The Shape of Standard (And How It Looks Like Every Other Format)

Posted on October 23, 2012October 23, 2012 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

Another week has come and gone and the results from Michigan State Champs are still not up anywhere. Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the professionals at "Professional Events Services". They still haven't forwarded the Top 8 deck lists from Michigan State Champs to TCGplayer.com nor have they posted decklists on their own website since December 2011. Don't worry, though. I'm sure they'll do a fine job running GP Philadelphia.

The Best Deck From Champs No One Is Talking About

We've heard a lot about how Jund is smashing the meta. We knew about Zombies for weeks and the U/W/R Miracles deck, designed by Team SCG to beat the zombie decks they all insisted were a good choice for the Open, saw a lot of play the following weekend at Champs. U/W Control ditching the red made an even bigger impact on the meta because it didn't rely on fickle miracles but instead compounded the oppressiveness of turn four [card Jace, Architect of Thought]Jace[/card], turn five [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card] with breakout cards like [card Sphinxs Revelation]Sphinx's (Sphinx!) Revelation[/card].

Thragtusk is a force to be reckoned with in the coming year. Jund decks are including it to combat both quicker decks and the mirror. Even a control decks can struggle to stabilize post-Wrath if they have to contend with a bunch of beast tokens.

As much as everyone is super hot on Jund right now, drooling over being able to jam Thragtusk, [card Olivia Voldaren]Olivia[/card], Falkenrath Aristocrat, Huntmaster of the Fells and $900 worth of mana base into sixty sleeves and call this a fun format, it may not be the best Thragtusk deck out there.

As hot as I am on Seance, which I would likely jam were I to play any Standard in the next month, going to 80 life with [card Trostani, Selesnyas Voice]Trostani[/card] and Rhox Faithmender doesn't appeal to everyone. Ryan's Seance build is a fine way to abuse Thragtusk -- he gains three life both coming and going with Trostani; he still provides his usual benefits (minus the 5/3 body) in the form of a fake Seance copy; and a three-color deck can easily come up with single green on turn 4 or 5 (Farseek likes to help with early Thragtusks).

However, there is another Thragtusk deck out there that lets you make both of the plays I want to do in Standard right now.

Casting, attacking with, and getting extra reach from Thragtusk.
Casting Jace on turn four, Tamiyo on turn five, and laughing maniacally.

There is a deck that allowed people to do those things. That deck is Bant Control.

Putting a copy or four into nearly every Champs Top 8, including a win at Rhode Island and Montana Champs, Bant Control gives you access to nearly every card I want to play in Standard. It won't let you play [card Olivia Voldaren]Olivia[/card], [card Falkenrath Aristocrat]Aristocrat[/card], [card Lotleth Troll]Troll[/card], [card Huntmaster of the Fells]Huntmaster[/card] or Rakdos's Return (eww, anyway). It does, however, let you play Thragtusk, [card Sphinxs Revelation]Sphinx's (Sphinx!) Revelation[/card], Detention Sphere, Supreme Verdict, [card Jace, Architect of Thought]Jace[/card], [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card], Angel of Serenity and/or Restoration Angel.

In my analysis of the decklists from the states that bothered to submit their Top 8 lists, I have concluded that Bant Control has the worst power-to-buzz ratio, which could work in your favor. Luckily someone from New Mexico managed to get 2nd (the deck also got 8th there) and write a tournament report as well as the first place winner from Montana who also wrote a good primer.

Surprisingly, outside of the reports of players faring incredibly well at their state's Champs with various builds, the deck is being largely overlooked and I'm not sure why. Certainly this is not the only way to build, but I feel like the combination of the Jace-Tamiyo play that control decks love so much and Centaur Healer makes this the best Thragtusk deck right now and I expect it to be the premier control deck going forward. The meta is far from developed right now, and another control deck could come along and crush this one into powder, but omit this deck from your testing gauntlet at your peril.

The comment section of this article is reserved for anecdotes like "My brew beats this 90% of the time, lol." But understand that if you can beat this deck I'm happy for you, because I wouldn't sleeve up a 75 that can't. If you have to choose between beating Jund and beating this, go with beating Jund because I fully expect it to be a larger percentage of the meta. However, at least test this enough to know how it wins so you're not caught with your pants down in the Top 8.

The Consensus Best Thragtusk Deck

I'm just one opinionated analyst and we have some data from over the weekend that seems to take some of the helium out of my Bant zeppelin.

There were six Jund decks in the Top 16 in Indy and only two Bant decks. Furthermore, the Top 8 had three Jund decks to zero Bant decks. What does this mean?

It could mean that Jund is a strictly better choice. However, I feel Bant has more tools to deal with what may boast the most raw power of any deck in Standard -- Reanimator variants. In the finals in Indianapolis, Harrison Deemer fought valiantly with Jund, but he was ultimately taken down by Rob Vaca's Reanimator build. Post-board, the matchup favors Reanimator and Vaca won game three easily on a mulligan to five.

Regardless, Jund is another deck you should be able to beat if you're going to bother showing up. Surprisingly, U/W/R Midrange is back, this time with Thundermaw Hellkite, another card Jund can access that Bant, er, can't. Hellkite is a real card to watch and if you can still get them around $10 (unlikely), snag them. These babies might not be done going up.

Give Me Moar DATA!

Fine, I will. Bant won the TCG Open in Minneapolis this weekend and put an aggro Bant deck (not even loosely related) in the Top 8. In fact, there was only one Jund-colored deck in the entire Top 8 in Minneapolis. The meta is anyone's guess right now, but with solid archetypes putting up good numbers, I expect it to be one of the more healthy fields we've seen.

Steve Medanic ultimately beat a 4C Reanimator deck in the finals. I realize the sample size is really small, but I wouldn't be surprised if Bant beats Reanimator more than than it loses to it and Jund loses more than it wins. That could change as people test more and sideboard better, but I feel like if Reanimator becomes a huge thing, having access to a card like Rest in Peace is going to tip the scales in Bant's favor. Don't expect Bant to stay under the radar after winning in Minneapolis.

Onward to Non-Standard Decks

They played Legacy in Indianapolis too, and wouldn't you know it, Michael Bernat won with High Tide. The legacy Boogeyman, RUG Delver, managed to come in 4th but was only represented by two copies in the entire Top 16. Another Top 8 with eight unique decks puts a smile on my face, and while we didn't see any wacky breakouts like Angel Stompy or 12 Post this week, Legacy is anyone's format.

Goblins is consistently out-performing Merfolk (suck it, Hosler) despite Merfolk getting a new Lord for absolutely no reason. Omnishow continues to consistently top eight as well, but the Academy Rector everyone forecast is still nowhere to be found.

Despite being garbage against the Omniscience variants of Sneak and Show, which have eschewed Sneak Attack entirely in a lot of cases, Karakas may stay a $100 card, which really bums me out considering I bought them for $45 and was stoked to out them for $75 a mere month before they hit $100. With price memory being a stronger force than logic, I don't expect Karakas to come down that much, even with the new Judge Foil set to supplement the finite supply. Karakas on an [card Emrakul, the Aeons Torn]Emrakul[/card] from Show and Tell or Sneak Attack was a solid play. Karakas on one played with Omniscience is a really bad idea. With Omnitell being the most consistent variant, expect your Karakas to be a little lackluster in the future as all it's going to do now is turn their Griselbrand into a Necropotence, which I hear is still fine.

Mana Bloom and Urban Burgeoning were two cards I thought might see play in Enchantress (or at least get tested) but Drew Idoux managed a top eight without their help. Supreme Verdict, however, showed up alongside Terminus in Justin Adams' U/W Miracles build. No wonder Merfolk is having a tough time. With Cursecatcher, Force of Will and Daze impotent to stop a wrath, Merfolk is just a Goblin deck with no [card Goblin Lackey]Lackey[/card] or [card Goblin Warchief]Warchief[/card]. Stoneblade continues to be a deck, proving anything good enough to be banned in Standard has to be good enough for Legacy. Lauren Nolan got 2nd place with an Esper variant.

Great job, everyone!

I Think Elevenses Is a Better Name Than Second Breakfast

But I didn't build the eggs deck that took down the Pro Tour so I don't get to name it.

Top 8 Modern Deck Lists

If you wait for my Monday recap of a Pro Tour, you're doing it wrong because I could write 10,000 words about all the noteworthy things I saw on the coverage and I'm not paid nearly enough for that.

Half of the Top 8 was Jund, and there was only one Bant deck so I guess the same struggle we currently have in Standard has migrated to Modern. Modern Jund, however, has Bloodbraid Elf and that card was accidentally made a little too good and has been ruining lives since.

However, be Jund all you like, you can't win the Pro Tour if you're not prepared to beat a silly, hard-to-play combo deck that is so fragile and cold to myriad hate spells that most pros decided not to even test it. Sure the deck is cold to hate, but if no one sees you coming, that hate will be in their hotel rooms and not in their sideboards.

Stanislav Cifka took down Pro Tour Return to Ravnica with a little luck and an Eggs/Second Sunrise combo deck called Second Breakfast. Eggs has always been a deck a lot of people are fond of, but this is by far the most challenging build. Don't expect a repeat as this deck is easily hated out. This would be the Modern equivalent of Dredge, if only Dredge were hard as balls to play. The more popular it gets, the worse it does because it can only thrive where it's not expected. Regardless, Cifka had to play tight all weekend and earned every bit of the win.

I urge you to watch PT coverage, even if you only watch on Sunday, because it's wall to wall entertainment and watching the plays isn't done justice by any post-game wrap-up. I'll leave the DQ controversy for Jackie Lee's own article later this week, so with that in mind, I bid you a fond farewell.

That's All for Now!

Remember, try to find the best Thragtusk deck, be able to beat Jund in every format and remember that Eggs are like the Spanish Inquisition.

Spanish Omelet! That's a better name than Second Breakfast, too!

Insider: Your Binder – Time Enough For Countin’ When The Dealin’s Done

Posted on October 23, 2012January 17, 2022 by mathieu malecot

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Magic the Gathering is a great game, and with practice one that pays for itself. Before turning Magic the game into Magic the income stream, keep a couple of things in mind:

You won't have a Magic collection anymore. It's been replaced with a Magic inventory.
The only way to measure your Magic acumen is to actively seek to extract value from your inventory.
Managing risk in Magic is very difficult and in some ways impossible.

Lets examine these principles more closely. I owned a Beta Clockwork Beast. I always put it in trade binders, and, while it never generated any interest, it always had a spot because I fell in love with the art and the card's place in Magic history. This week I finally sold off my Beast to a dealer for six bucks. It was a long time coming.

Treat your binder like a rental property. Every slot is paying you rent. If you have cards in your binder that don't generate interest and can't keep people working through your stuff, they don't belong.

Have you ever noticed how much better Target Stores look compared to Wal-Mart Stores? Better yet, have you ever noticed how the rest of Target looks compared to the messy area dedicated to collectible trading cards at the front of the store? We all do. Wouldn't you rather shop in a better looking store?

Apply that to your binder. Here are some color coded layout examples using 9 pocket sleeves:

Return to Ravnica allows you to mix and match colors and then tie them together with gold/multicolored cards. Horizontal and vertical striping is another effective way to beautify your binder.

Don't let your binder look like it's been raided or picked over. Always keep your slots full and make note of what is moving and what is not.

The better your binder looks, the easier trading becomes. And trading is what the binder is all about. If something isn't trading, it's time to move that item out and do a price check. Sell anything that prices out to your satisfaction while keeping these prices in mind.

You will grind out a lot of profit by simply familiarizing yourself with binder duds that sell for "good" cash. Refreshing your binder this way also gives you great trading habits. Suddenly you want cards no one else is looking for - those cards that also happen to trade at a discount to retail. Compare this to a typical Snapcaster Mage trade and you'll see you've increased your return on investment AND simplified the trading process.

You want a binder that inspires awe but not shock. Sticker shock is real. Always keep a place in your binder for popular uncommons and commons. They round out trades and keep people from being intimidated while trading.

Spread card value out in a binder. You won't always know what kind of card the person on the other side of a trade is looking for, so spread out trade targets to keep them in your binder.

Split up trades into smaller parts. While looking through a binder, always keep an eye on what the other side of the trade wants. The minute you can put a deal together, stop looking and make an offer. The first trade is the hardest. If you can trade three times with the same person in the same time you could trade once, break up the trade. You build a relationship this way and can take advantage of reciprocity.

While you should never be afraid to take a big position in a single card, especially when you acquire that large position through trading, you must diligently sell down those positions OR trade into older cards with price inelasticity and high liquidity.Never let your binder reflect the size of your single card positions. No more than a play set of any card needs to be represented.

The only other hedge you have in the world of Magic finance is cash. When you are trading, always keep buylist pricing in mind. Presently Birthing Pod is being purchased for 2$ by a retailer that is paying 14$ for a Snapcaster Mage. That means Snapcaster's cash value it 31% discount to retail versus 25% for the Pod. There is plenty of opportunity for profit trading out of Snapcaster today and into Pod with an eye on selling out of Birthing Pod.

Birthing Pod will likely pop up in Modern, Legacy and Commander formats again and again. Selling three copies for every four acquired would allow a trader to generate income while reinvesting in their Magic inventory.

Be conservative when reinvesting cash into your Magic inventory. Unless you own a retail space you will be overpaying for sealed product. Save your cash for distressed sellers, save it to help close a favorable trade and save it to buy collections on the cheap. Using cash to speculate on Magic cards should be done as cheaply as possible and only for cards that have a long price history.

Understanding what cards can appreciate in value thanks to an unexpected events can present you with great opportunities and often cash is the fastest way to take advantage. Unbanning and similar events can effect multiple cards on the periphery. Work with retailer distrust and allow their unwillingness to fill large single card orders to force you to pick up three or four cards that will benefit from the same unbanning/event.

If you like to gamble, go out there and ask as many players as possible for their most underplayed/under-rated cards. You might get lucky and find the next Gate to Phyrexia. But even here, exercise caution. Look only to BUY the cheapest of these cards and even then limit the quantity. There are plenty of good ideas out there.

Return to Ravnica Draft #1

Posted on October 23, 2012October 23, 2012 by Conrad

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Editor David Conrad and Zach Mcnair draft Return to Ravnica together and try to take down an 8-4