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Last Week’s Top Headlines

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Years ago, a Pro Tour would catalyze massive movement in the Magic market. I would cover all the major movers and shakers, possibly review the metagame and share my reactions. I would also include a screenshot of the MTG Stocks Interests page to highlight the disruptiveness to the financial world that is the Pro Tour.

Not so much this time.

That’s it. The entire Interests page for nonfoils from Sunday, November 9th. Let’s count the Standard cards that appear on the list: zero. In fact, I see three cards moving due to Pioneer, and then the usual noise that is the Old School market (prices fluctuate, but never go anywhere).

Clearly, there’s no news here, other than Oko’s impending banning. But there is news from last week, with important implications. Allow me to elaborate.

Mystery Packs: The Good News and Bad News

The Mystery Booster Packs generated more hype than any set in recent memory, and the mysteriousness of it was rivaled only by Ultimate Masters. The production WOTC put on in revealing the product was even well-thought-out and elaborate.

Unfortunately, the greater the hype, the greater potential for disappointment. And that’s precisely how the Magic community reacted (as if there was any other possibility?). I’ve gone from never using memes in my articles to now using one in back to back columns, but this was so fitting I could not resist its inclusion.

This pretty much sums up the experience that is the Mystery Booster Packs. They’re “like a box of chocolates
you never know what you’re gonna get,” as Forest Gump so eloquently put it. That also means the set is clearly designed for a one-time, entertaining sealed event. Finance was not a consideration (other than the obvious Reserved List exclusion).

The community is so focused on value that a cold reaction to this product release was inevitable. While it’s possible to open value from these boosters (I saw one person open a Mana Crypt), more often than not a pack will contain a hodgepodge of inexpensive cards. Since the set is so large I have no clue what the EV of the set is. But at first glance, it looks meager.

But it’s not all doom and gloom. There’s one component to this set that has me seeing dollar signs:

It seems the playtest cards included in the Mystery Boosters will only appear in conventions. Local game shops will have different versions of the boosters. While we won’t know what the replacement will be until Monday, it leaves me wondering just how rare these playtest cards will be. Considering there are at least 121 one of them (the number listed on Scryfall), it’s extremely difficult to open a particular card.

Even though these cards aren’t legal in constructed events, the most hilarious, iconic, or playable playtest cards will inevitably find their ways into Commander decks and cubes. The result: some of these playtest cards will be very valuable!

Of course the less desirable playtest cards will remain inexpensive, but these may be rare and novel enough that even the least interesting ones will be worth a few bucks. I don’t know how many conventions will have this tournament, but the overall market supply for these will have to be fairly small. If there are 121 unique playtest cards, a 2400 player convention would introduce about 20 copies of each per convention. Assuming this will last even 50 conventions means total supply numbers around 1000. That’s rarer than an Alpha rare card.

I’ll be watching these closely, and will definitely hope to acquire a few that are most interesting to me. I think these will have some potential to appreciate. Supply will continue to bombard the market over the course of these events, but a time will come when the supply faucet will be turned off. That’ll be it, then. No more copies of One with Death, or any of the other playtest cards. And even beforehand, there will likely be an opportunity to buy and sell these playtest cards while the market tries to figure out the appropriate value.

These playtest cards (and, possibly, their replacement in the LGS boosters) are going to be what makes these packs worth opening for value!

Legacy Is Dead, Long Live Legacy

On November 7th, Star City Games announced the end to Legacy tournaments on the SCG Tour. SCG gave life to Legacy many years ago when they started their SCG Tour. The result was an explosion in values for Dual Lands, Mox Diamond, Lion's Eye Diamond, and an array of other Reserved List Legacy cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Diamond

Naturally, people are concluding that this announcement spells doom for Legacy. Jim Davis wrote an article on Cool Stuff Inc’s site pronouncing Legacy dead, going as far as to say “good riddance” to the format.

While this announcement certainly bodes poorly for the format, I’m not sure if Legacy prices rely that heavily on demand for SCG Open play anymore. Star City Games hosted very few Legacy Opens in 2019 anyway. I see they had a couple legacy Opens in Syracuse, NY and they may have included Legacy in the Team Opens. But I can’t imagine this catalyzed much demand for cards.

My hunch is that Legacy has gone the way of Vintage. There don’t need to be large events—the players who love the format will find ways to play. There will continue to be smaller-scale Legacy events all around the world. And since the Legacy metagame evolves so slowly, I suspect prices will remain largely unimpacted by this news.

However, to avoid risk of a pullback, I would recommend ensuring your Legacy exposure (beyond a deck you play) is limited to cards that see play in other formats. Dual Lands likely see more demand from Commander than from Legacy nowadays given the difference in the player base. Grim Monolith is another example of a card with utility outside Legacy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Monolith

On the other hand, Sneak Attack and Exploration would be two cards I wouldn’t want to own right now. The same goes for any Legacy cards not on the Reserved List that see the most demand coming out of Legacy play. This is indeed a relatively small pool of cards. All the more reason I don’t think the end of Legacy SCG Opens is all that important to the speculator/investor. Legacy cards have been rather uninteresting investments for years already, anyways.

And again, the end of SCG Legacy Opens will not mean the end of Legacy altogether. It will still exist, there will still be events with hundreds of players, but it’ll happen a little less often. This difference just doesn’t matter all that much, financially.

Pioneer Shake-Ups

The last headline I want to touch upon is the recent Pioneer bannings.

The most important line in the announcement isn’t the banning of any cards. It isn’t that it’s effective online before it’s effective in tabletop play. The most important line of that announcement, in my opinion, is the very last one: another B&R announcement to come one week later.

Wizards is clearly taking a “wait and see” approach when it comes to managing Pioneer. Rather than beginning with a huge ban-list, they prefer to let the metagame unfold, tweaking along the way. This approach has its pros and cons. But if I had any interest in playing this format, I’d be inclined to wait a month or two before committing to a deck. There’s just too much uncertainty about what will be legal and illegal in the coming weeks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

This could hamper the growth of Pioneer out the gate, and it makes me want to remain hands-off as a speculator (I already got burned on a few Oath of Nissas. I’m not in the business of buying popular cards only to have their utility squelched during a weekly banning. I expect this will leave some sour tastes in players’ mouths, and it’ll be interesting to see if there are any longer-lasting implications.

Wrapping It Up

While Standard continues to languish under Oko’s dominance, there’s plenty of other news to keep Magic interesting. Pioneer is going through rapid changes as it finds footing in the tournament world. Legacy is under attack in its exclusion from the SCG Tour. And Mystery Boosters do in fact have financially relevant cards
albeit only in convention packs.

These three headlines are plenty to keep me engaged in the hobby for the time being. Even though my focus remains on Old School and Reserved List cards, I still have an appreciation for the ever-changing environment the game offers. It’s what makes the hobby so fresh and different, day in and day out. Without such changes, the game really would stagnate.

So even though some of these changes/releases may frustrate us, it’s important to appreciate that the dynamic environment is critical in keeping the game refreshed. To stagnate is to die in this environment. Magic may have been inducted into the Toy Hall of Fame, but it’s not because of Alpha. It’s because of the consistent reinvention the game has been able to undergo over the course of 26 successful years. That’s what makes Magic one of the greatest games ever created, and it’s what will keep me interested in the hobby, hopefully for years to come.




Sigbits

  • I just submitted a new buylist order to Card Kingdom when I noticed they were offering $305 on Guardian Beast. This is a stellar price considering the softness in the Old School market. I don’t suspect this high of a buy price will last long.
  • I thought Sword of Fire and Ice’s price would have dropped with the introduction of Pioneer. The unbanning of Stoneforge Mystic in Modern catalyzed a jump in price, but Modern is expected to be a bit soft in coming months as Pioneer receives an overweight amount of attention. But Card Kingdom must still be selling copies because they have a $70 buy price for Modern Masters copies of the card.
  • Card Kingdom also has Iconic Masters and Legends copies of Mana Drain on their hotlist. They’re only offering $80 for the Legends copies, well off their highest offer to-date. But that $60 buy price on the reprinted version seems to be relatively good, and climbing! Since this card is banned in Legacy, it’s safe to say none of the recent headlines will be negatively impacting this card’s value, and it should offer upside for the foreseeable future (barring a new reprint).

October Brew Report, Pt. 1: Melting Pot

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Why do I write a Brew Report every month? Because Modern is brimming with innovation every month! While many of the decks featured in this column may not go on to win a GP, or even to carve out a sustainable metagame share, they all performed well at least once; it’s not always a cakewalk to 5-0 a competitive online league in this knowledge-rewarding format. And that success, however brief, can often serve as a launching pad for further iterations. So let’s get down to business and see which tech slapped the hardest in October.

Lil' Splashes

Of the many existing decks seamlessly integrating new tech, the following pair stood out to me most.

Gwixis Shadow, BENCHSUMMER (5-0)

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
2 Giver of Runes
4 Ranger-Captain of Eos
3 Snapcaster Mage
4 Tidehollow Sculler

Planeswalkers

2 The Royal Scions

Sorceries

2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
2 Unearth

Instants

1 Dismember
3 Drown in the Loch
2 Fatal Push
2 Path to Exile
1 Temur Battle Rage
4 Thought Scour

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
1 Blood Crypt
2 Godless Shrine
1 Hallowed Fountain
4 Marsh Flats
1 Plains
3 Polluted Delta
3 Silent Clearing
1 Steam Vents
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Celestial Purge
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Collective Brutality
3 Fulminator Mage
2 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Kaya's Guile
2 Plague Engineer

Gwixis Shadow gets its name from my own failed experiments in the color combination, in which I ran Delver of Secrets alongside Monastery Swiftspear and Lingering Souls. This Shadow list, though, doesn't try to reinvent the wheel, nor does it seem to favor either the existing Grixis or Mardu Shadow decks over the other. Rather, it seamlessly integrates aspects of both.

Here’s Ranger-Captain of Eos, the Mardu all-star that tutors the deck’s namesake and turns Unearth into a heap of value; there’s Drown in the Loch and The Royal Scions, new and promising adoptions of Grixis. Tying it all together is Tidehollow Sculler, which increases hand disruption density to ensure the deck has ample disruption to stop opponents in their tracks and enough protection to push its own plays.

Faeburrow Reborn, NUKELAUNCH (5-0)

Creatures

4 Faeburrow Elder
3 Birds of Paradise
2 Bloodbraid Elf
3 Niv-Mizzet Reborn
4 Tidehollow Sculler

Planeswalkers

2 Oko, Thief of Crowns
1 Teferi, Time Raveler
1 The Royal Scions
2 Wrenn and Six

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe

Instants

2 Assassin's Trophy
1 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Helix

Sorceries

2 Bring to Light
2 Safewright Quest

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Irrigated Farmland
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Pillar of the Paruns
4 Prismatic Vista
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Stomping Ground
4 Windswept Heath
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Alpine Moon
1 Ashiok, Dream Render
1 Crumble to Dust
1 Dovin's Veto
1 Fracturing Gust
1 Kambal, Consul of Allocation
1 Kaya's Guile
1 Knight of Autumn
2 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
3 Rest in Peace
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Unmoored Ego

Faeburrow Reborn offers a novel take on the five-color Niv-Mizzet Reborn lists that have become commonplace in Modern since Arcum's Astrolabe turned the color pie on its head.

My main qualm with that deck is that once up to ten cards are drawn with the Dragon, pilots sometimes have trouble casting everything in time to not lose; in other words, early-game clunk finds itself multiplied in the game’s later stages. Faeburrow Elder, while growing to impressive size itself, mitigates this problem by functioning as an Aether Vial of sorts; players can tap it for 2-5 mana and cast whatever they want, Dragons included. Difficult as planeswalkers are to remove, Faeburrow is likely to have many colors to draw from after players untap with it.

One Is Always Enough

Also significant this month were the mono-colored strategies putting up results with the help of some Throne goodies.

Mono-White Titan, FINCOWN (5-0)

Creatures

4 Charming Prince
4 Wall of Omens
4 Thraben Inspector
1 Kami of False Hope
4 Flickerwisp
4 Ranger-Captain of Eos
3 Sun Titan

Artifacts

1 Crucible of Worlds

Instants

3 Brought Back
4 Path to Exile

Sorceries

2 Winds of Abandon
2 Wrath of God

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
1 Blast Zone
3 Emeria, the Sky Ruin
4 Field of Ruin
1 Flooded Strand
1 Marsh Flats
3 Prismatic Vista
9 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Windswept Heath
60 Cards

Sideboard

1 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Cleansing Nova
2 Damping Sphere
2 Generous Gift
1 Ghost Quarter
4 Remorseful Cleric
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
2 Stony Silence

During spoiler season, David doubted Charming Prince’s staple status in Blink, Humans, and Death & Taxes. Neither of us predicted the Noble would up and create his own archetype. Mono-White Titan combines a slew of restricted reanimation effects to get the most out of Prince and its ilk, which include the searchable, blinking-unfriendly Kami of False Hope as well as a full four pre-Princes in Wall of Omens. At the top of the curve rests Sun Titan, a recursive reborn effect that buries opponents in value.

Mono-Green Stompy, FLUFFYWOLF2 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Pelt Collector
4 Experiment One
4 Hexdrinker
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Avatar of the Resolute
4 Strangleroot Geist
4 Steel Leaf Champion
2 Questing Beast

Instants

4 Aspect of Hydra
1 Blossoming Defense
4 Vines of Vastwood

Lands

13 Forest
4 Nurturing Peatland
2 Treetop Village
2 Waterlogged Grove

Sideboard

1 Choke
3 Collector Ouphe
4 Damping Sphere
2 Dismember
2 Reclamation Sage
3 Scavenging Ooze

Mono-Green Stompy has received a number of buffs in the last year: Pelt Collector increases the consistency of explosive starts, while Steel-Leaf Champion and Hexdrinker improve the late-game. Payoffs like Avatar of the Resolute remain constant. The deck’s newest addition comes in the form of Questing Beast, a value-charged beater even making waves in Jund. In a metagame full of cheap planeswalkers, including the ubiquitous Oko, powerful haste creatures are a deckbuilding godsend, and this one seems tailor-made for sniping the card type.

Midrange Never Dies

Nor does it apparently ever stop regrouping. These three decks employ the timeless "disrupt, then commit" strategy in ways we've seldom seen.

Bant Mentor, ALTNICCOLO (5-0)

Creatures

4 Monastery Mentor
4 Ice-Fang Coatl
4 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Oko, Thief of Crowns
3 Teferi, Time Raveler

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe

Instants

4 Force of Negation
4 Opt
4 Path to Exile

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
3 Flooded Strand
1 Hallowed Fountain
3 Misty Rainforest
3 Prismatic Vista
1 Snow-Covered Forest
6 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Temple Garden

Sideboard

2 Celestial Purge
3 Disdainful Stroke
3 Rest in Peace
3 Spell Queller
2 Supreme Verdict
2 Timely Reinforcements

Speaking of cheap planeswalkers, Bant Mentor packs plenty; Oko aids the shard’s previously untenable trouble with creatures, for which they once only had Path to Exile, while Teferi, Time Raveler lets the deck untap, slam Mentor, and “go off” with an army-causing cantrip chain (Force of Negation also plays to this gameplan by fronting a turn’s worth of protection for the squishy creature). As for Jace, its role seems mainly to ensure a secondary win condition: should opponents answer the Mentor Plan A, they’ll still have the blue juggernaut’s card advantage waterfall to deal with.

The sideboard is jam-packed with effective answers, ranging from catch-all floodgates Rest in Peace and Damping Sphere to macro-archetype-hosers like Spell Queller and Supreme Verdict.

BUG Ninjas, CAVEDAN (5-0)

Creatures

4 Faerie Seer
3 Gilded Goose
2 Birds of Paradise
1 Brazen Borrower
4 Ice-Fang Coatl
4 Ingenious Infiltrator
4 Spellstutter Sprite
2 Vendilion Clique

Planeswalkers

3 Oko, Thief of Crowns

Enchantments

2 Bitterblossom

Instants

1 Cryptic Command
1 Drown in the Loch
4 Fatal Push
2 Force of Negation
1 Spell Snare

Lands

3 Botanical Sanctum
1 Breeding Pool
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Polluted Delta
1 Prismatic Vista
1 Snow-Covered Forest
3 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
2 Verdant Catacombs
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Drown in the Loch
1 Spell Snare
1 Assassin's Trophy
2 Collective Brutality
2 Collector Ouphe
2 Damping Sphere
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Plague Engineer
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Thoughtseize

BUG Ninjas is yet another Oko-touter. The walker’s partner-in-crime, Gilded Goose, also makes an unlikely appearance for its synergy with the ninjutsu mechanic. BUG Ninjas is without a doubt the most creature-heavy I’ve ever seen the tribe get, and I have to admit I like where it’s headed. Only two Bitterblossoms? What’s to hate?

GRx Walker Moon, CAVEDAN (5-0)

Creatures

4 Arbor Elf
4 Birds of Paradise
4 Tireless Tracker
4 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Glorybringer
1 Gruul Spellbreaker
1 Questing Beast
1 Stormbreath Dragon

Planeswalkers

1 Domri, Anarch of Bolas
3 Kiora, Behemoth Beckoner
3 Oko, Thief of Crowns
1 The Royal Scions

Enchantments

2 Blood Moon
4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

2 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
4 Misty Rainforest
7 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Steam Vents
2 Stomping Ground
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Blood Moon
2 Abrade
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Chameleon Colossus
1 Crumble to Dust
1 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Obstinate Baloth
2 Scavenging Ooze
1 Shatterstorm

CAVEDAN's second straight list in this feature, GRx Walker Moon, also makes use of Oko. This deck is similar in construction to GRx Moon builds I’ve flag-flown for over the last however many years, but there’s no Tarmogoyf; rather, it goes all-in on the mana dork survivng, and replaces Goyf with Tireless Tracker. Blood Moon also has its numbers slashed, this time in favor of cheap planeswalkers. Resolving these a turn early indeed puts the game away versus many opponents.

Combo's Other Twist

Modern's combo decks seem to be enjoying the new cards as well.

Copy-Cat, SPIDERSPACE (5-0)

Creatures

4 Felidar Guardian
4 Arbor Elf
4 Ice-Fang Coatl

Planeswalkers

4 Karn, the Great Creator
4 Saheeli Rai
3 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Wrenn and Six

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe

Enchantments

4 Oath of Nissa
4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

3 Once Upon a Time

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Hallowed Fountain
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Prismatic Vista
3 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
1 Tranquil Thicket

Sideboard

2 Collector Ouphe
1 Damping Sphere
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Ensnaring Bridge
2 Knight of Autumn
1 Mycosynth Lattice
1 Pithing Needle
1 Thragtusk
1 Tormod's Crypt
3 Veil of Summer
1 Wurmcoil Engine

Copy-Cat has existed in Modern since its ban-addressed stint in Standard. But it's never looked like this. Saheeli Rai now has plenty of company as a strategy-appropriate planeswalker; so much so, in fact, that Oko doesn't even make the cut. Rather, it's Karn, the Great Creator who comes out in numbers, offering a standalone Plan B to the combo dimension the deck is named for and giving players something to funnel their Arbor-Sprawl mana into.

Time Raveler also earns its stripes here by protecting the combo, as does Wrenn for helping build towards Felidar's four-mana price tag. Ice Fang Coatl is also a significant upgrade for the deck; while it can be blinked for cards like Wall of Omens, the Snake plays double-duty as critical defensive against Modern’s huge creatures.

Lazav Urza, HAUBIDTRAN (5-0)

Creatures

2 Lazav, the Multifarious
4 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer
2 Sai, Master Thopterist

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe
2 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Mox Amber
4 Mox Opal
1 Pithing Needle
2 Sword of the Meek
4 Thopter Foundry
2 Welding Jar
4 Wishclaw Talisman

Lands

3 Darksteel Citadel
4 Polluted Delta
5 Snow-Covered Island
2 Snow-Covered Swamp
2 Spire of Industry
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Ashiok, Dream Render
4 Collective Brutality
2 Damping Sphere
3 Fatal Push
2 Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
2 Thoughtseize

In "Dismantling the Bomb: How to Fight Urza," David commented on the archetype’s different builds and their respective strenghts and weaknesses. One feature the decks shared was their inability to do anything with an Emry or Urza that wound up in the graveyard. Lazav Urza seeks to change that predicament with its namesake legend. Not only does Lazav turn on Mox Amber early in lieu of another creature and gently dig for combo pieces, the Shapeshifter can become a copy of any creature opponents have already killed or pilots have incidentally milled.

In the scope of David’s article, relying on Lazav further exposes Urza to graveyard hate, though I’d assume not to the extent of a full Goblin Engineer package.

Tempo Twin, KAHLUAH777 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Brineborn Cutthroat
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Pestermite
2 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
2 Brazen Borrower

Instants

3 Cryptic Command
2 Force of Negation
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Magmatic Sinkhole
4 Opt
2 Peek
4 Remand
2 Spell Snare

Lands

1 Cascade Bluffs
1 Fiery Islet
5 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Mountain
1 Mystic Sanctuary
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard

1 Force of Negation
1 Magmatic Sinkhole
2 Abrade
3 Anger of the Gods
2 Blood Moon
3 Crackling Drake
2 Spell Pierce
1 Vendilion Clique

Rounding things out today is Tempo-Twin, an oldie-but-goodie declared dead after the banning of its namesake enchantment. Twin-in-spirit decks employing the Kiki-Exarch combination have cropped up in Modern from time to time since then, but they’ve always been on the metagame’s fringes, and they’ve never returned to packing Tarmogoyf to bolster the aggro-control plan.

This build of Tempo Twin also refuses to dip into green, but nonetheless ascribes to the older deck’s philosophy via Brineborn Cutthroat. Brineborn’s flash plays to the deck’s predilection for end-step threat deployment, but its counters clause doesn’t sacrifice the potential for bulk. Brazen Borrower makes yet another appearance in this dump, reinforcing its worth as a utility option, while Blood Moon and Crackling Drake provide secondary plans from the sideboard.

And the Month Rolls On

That does it for the first half of October, a month that features as diverse a set of Modern innovations as ever. Join me next week as we flesh out the rest of the decklists.

Pioneer Picks and Predictions

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I’ve written about my process of using QuietSpeculation’s TraderTools to study buylist spreads, and with the rise of Pioneer, I got curious about what the spread numbers look like for its many sets. These numbers give a real snapshot of what players are demanding, and low spread numbers indicate a card with tight supply and demand, which has the potential to spike with an increase in demand. With Pioneer set to be in flux over the coming weeks and months as the banned list is hammered out, there will be a lot of metagame changes that will inevitably impact the market in a big way.

I went deep looking into the spread of all Pioneer sets, and I gained a few very useful insights.

Painlands are Premium

Among all the cards in Pioneer, painlands stood out as having some of the lowest spreads, many of them actually slightly negative on CardKingdom’s buylist, so they surely have been selling lots of them over the past few weeks. Without fetchlands taking a large part of manabases, players have to branch out, and painlands are in the highest tier of quality in available Pioneer lands.


There was an error retrieving a chart for Llanowar Wastes

What’s interesting is that these lands didn’t see much play in Modern, compared to things like the fastlands that did, so the relative change in demand is much higher, and over time I see this leading to higher prices for them across the board, but keep in mind multiple printings will keep them from ever getting truly out of hand.

Commons and Uncommons Are Critical

I was quite surprised to see that some of the lowest-spread cards in the format are actually uncommons and even commons, which points to them being among the true staples of the format. For example, Temur Battle Rage is the lowest-spread card in all of Fate Reforged, Modern and Pauper staple that represents one of the more powerful cards in the format, and one I’ve already seen in multiple decks, including with its partner in crime Become Immense.

A closer look shows that Temur Battle Rage has indeed been slowly creeping up over the past couple weeks, and could turn into a true spike if a deck using it really breaks out in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Temur Battle Rage

An uncommon of note is Ensoul Artifact, which has a low spread and is on the rise in the metagame as part of a Blue-Red “Affinity” deck. It was the centerpiece of a Standard deck during its tenure, and it’s one of the better artifact payoffs in Pioneer. It has a very similar price pattern to Temur Battle Rage, rising to around $0.60 from $0.50 in the past two weeks, and showing every sign of continuing that trajectory. I’ve seen a lot of talk about the deck on social media lately, so at this point, I’m just waiting for a high-profile breakout finish to bring the deck to the masses. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ensoul Artifact

Bet on Red

The lowest spread card in Born of the Gods is Searing Blood at 15%. It was a staple of Standard red decks and has seen play as a Modern sideboard card, and it’s becoming a staple of Pioneer in that role. Last weekend, Mono-Red gained a ton of traction when an MPL Pro and popular deck-brewer top 8'd the Pioneer Challenge along with another player on the deck, and things have only gotten more promising after the bans nerfed some of its biggest competition.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Searing Blood

Another staple of the burn archetype in Modern and one of its important tools in Pioneer is Skullcrack, another sideboard staple with some maindeck potential. I wasn’t too surprised to see that at 10% it is one of the lowest spread cards in Gatecrash, one of the oldest sets in Pioneer. It’s another example of a card showing steady growth in the past two weeks since the announcement, up from $1.6 to nearly $2 and heading higher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skullcrack

A slightly more obscure red card but one I see having a great future in Pioneer is Abbot of Keral Keep, which was a major staple of the archetype during its time in Standard. I took note of it when I saw it was one of the lowest spread cards in Magic Origins at 6%, behind just painlands, and on further inspection see it’s being commonly used as a two-of in red sideboards. It’s already showing clear growth this month, and if that’s just on relatively little demand from red decks I could see it really exploding if it becomes a maindeck staple of a top-tier red deck. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abbot Of Keral Keep

Tribal Tendencies

Tribal decks are an obvious place to start in any format, and the best among them tend to naturally coalesce together into real archetypes. Pioneer has fewer options than larger cardpools, and that means tribal decks will try to “cheat” on type when they can with cards like Metallic Mimic, a player in any tribal deck and surprisingly one of the lowest spread cards in Aether Revolt at 15%, behind just the negative spread mythic rare Angelic Archangel, which looks like a nice Commander spec. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Metallic Mimic

A specific tribal card to watch is Relentless Dead, which at a 20% spread has one of the lowest spreads in Shadows over Innistrad, but came onto my radar initially because of its spike on MTGO this week. At least two variations of Mono-Black Zombies have posted 5-0 trophies, so there’s potential for it to become a part of the metagame. Under $8 before the Pioneer announcement, it’s now nearly $9.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Relentless Dead

Most Cards Are in High Supply

One factor behind the creation of Pioneer is the high-accessibility of cards relative to Modern, which goes back 16 years to Mirrodin and includes sets with a much lower supply than now. Pioneer only goes back 7 years, and its sets are all in very high supply. As such, I found that many sets didn’t have cards with low spreads, and showed dealers have plenty in stock.

Most cards are minor players, so even the best cards from sets like Khans of Tarkir, Theros, and even its oldest set Return to Ravnica have plenty to go around. This effect is especially pronounced in these large first-sets, so the best bets will be from second and third sets and core sets, which nearly all of the cards I shared today are from. 

Dismantling the Bomb: How to Fight Urza

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Urza is everywhere. As the latest it deck in Modern, it's getting most of the attention when eyes can be torn away from Magic's new baby, Pioneer. The deck's impressive results do recall the banned Krark-Clan Ironworks deck. Today we'll examining how to fight Urza, starting with the overall archetype and then looking at specific tactics against the various versions.

Why Urza?

Compared to other Modern decks, the Urza family of decks isn't very impressive on paper. They're primarily made up of cheap, do-nothing artifacts which can draw cards and make mana, but durdling isn't viable in Modern. The Thopter-Sword combo is better here than in any other shell, but that's not really saying much. Even with Saheeli, Sublime Artificer and Sai, Master Thopterist to make the air useful, it all looks too slow and empty to be a force in Modern.

The lynchpin is Urza, Lord High Artificer. Simply put, he features a huge amount of absurdly powerful text, which may be appropriate flavor-wise given his importance to Magic's history and storyline, but does nothing for game balance. Urza generates a threat upon entering the battlefield, makes every artifact into Mox Saphire, and offers a card advantage engine for good measure. It's a chilling thought, but if Urza had Tolarian Academy's ability rather than his current mana ability, he'd be far less powerful, since he could only generate mana once. As-is, his mana generation is on par with that of Krark-Clan Ironworks, and he doesn't need outside help to find more artifacts to keep it all rolling. Urza can just keep flipping random cards off the top. He also goes infinite with Thopter-Sword.

To summarize, the addition of a self-contained engine has supercharged an otherwise mediocre archetype into a very powerful force in Modern. This is made worse by Urza decks lacking genuinely bad matchups. Thanks to tutoring engines and intrinsic lifegain, Urza has the means to overcome most decks given the time. However, since its cards are lackluster on their own, it doesn't have any truly great matchups either. Rather, Urza decks aim to execute their powerful plan and see if the opponent can stop them... which sounds very familiar, and provides a strong clue for fighting the deck.

What to Do

My philosophy is to treat Urza decks like they're Splinter Twin, but worse. Like Twin, Urza presents a turn four-ish win based on a four-mana spell. It has alternative routes to victory that are cheaper, but the main threat of the deck costs four and is sorcery-speed. However, Twin was built to be a tempo deck with a combo kill, and played mostly at instant speed. Urza decks are built like sorcery speed artifact combo decks first, and have non-combo elements secondary, if at all. Thus, it is highly effective to just target Urza, Lord High Artificer and let the deck fall apart on its own. As previously mentioned, that one card is what makes the archetype viable at all. As against Twin, if you can't race, then you must interact.

Another tip is to never, ever, get complacent. No matter how thoroughly Urza's hand has been shredded, or how many threats have been countered, so long as a single Urza is left in the deck, you can just lose. On that note, it is imperative to start pressuring Urza as quickly as possible. Sitting back will not win the game. Pure control isn't doing so well because Urza plays counters, Teferi, Time Raveler, and sometimes Veil of Summer out of the sideboard, negating counterspell walls; control lacks the early clock necessary to lay the smack down while Urza is kept off its win conditions.

The final strategy I'll mention is employing graveyard hate. All Urza decks rely on their graveyards. Exactly why and how shifts from deck to deck, but they all get worse when denied that resource. Lasting hate like Leyline of the Void, Rest in Peace, and Scavenging Ooze are better than one shots like Tormod's Crypt and Surgical Extraction, since Urza players are aware of the their weakness and have adapted their play to mitigate one-shot effects.

What to Avoid

My emphasis on targeting Urza may make it seem like Surgical Extraction is a good plan against Urza. But I don't think it is. Every deck has Mox Opal, and most now have Mox Amber, too. In other words, Urza drops the same turn or sooner than the fastest proactive extraction effect, Lost Legacy, frequently rendering that sort of card moot. If Urza comes out slowly, it is unlikely savvy opponents will have lost in the first place. Thoughtseize into Surgical is fast enough, but is not consistent. Killing Urza then Extracting is viable, but runs the risk of Urza generating value first. I won't begrudge using Surgical if there's nothing better available, but it will leave players wanting as a primary plan.

In terms of hate, artifact destruction is similarly mediocre against Urza decks. The only worthwhile targets are prison pieces and Thopter Foundry, each a dwindling part of the strategy. Abrade and company are still valuable in that respect, but should be regarded as speed bumps rather than an actual solution. In that vein, Stony Silence and Collector Ouphe are decent, but not exceptional; shutting down the Thopter-Sword combo is good, and turning off Engineered Explosives negates their main interaction, but most of the artifacts are just setting up the non-artifact spells. Urza cares about the quantity, not the utility, of its artifacts. Going deep in attacking artifacts is a good way to die with a hand full of dead cards.

Prison cards, particularly Chalice of the Void, are extremely volatile. Certain hate proves very effective against some versions and utterly dead versus others. I regard Chalice as a high-risk, high-reward card against Urza. Blood Moon is an odd case. Urza decks play a lot of basics and Arcum's Astrolabe, which in theory moots Moon. However, every deck is very dependent on fetchlands to make it all work. They need many colors but primarily play Island and thus need to aggressively fetch to hit their color requirements. As a result an accelerated Blood Moon can be lethal where an on curve one is wasted mana.

Classic Whirza

At the start of the year, pure Whir Prison was the talk of the town. As time wore on, it fell from favor; players learned how to fight back, and the deck's inherent weaknesses became prominent. The additions of Goblin Engineer and Urza, Lord High Artificer reinvigorated the deck.

Urza Thopter-Sword, Sean Belisle (1st Place, Modern PTQ GP Atlanta)

Creatures

3 Goblin Engineer
1 Sai, Master Thopterist
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer

Instants

2 Galvanic Blast
3 Whir of Invention

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal
1 Welding Jar
4 Arcum's Astrolabe
2 Chromatic Star
1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Pithing Needle
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
1 Damping Sphere
1 Ichor Wellspring
2 Sword of the Meek
4 Thopter Foundry
1 Ensnaring Bridge

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Steam Vents
1 Inventor's Fair
1 Breeding Pool
1 Watery Grave
1 Hallowed Fountain
5 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Snow-Covered Mountain

Sideboard

3 Thoughtseize
2 Collective Brutality
2 Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas
2 Assassin's Trophy
2 Tireless Tracker
1 Ashok, Dream Render
1 Dead of Winter
1 Fatal Push
1 Magus of the Moon

No longer restricted to pure prison, Whirza is a hybrid prison/toolbox/combo deck with a beatdown backup plan courtesy of the construct token. Additional tutoring means the prison package can be streamlined in favor of more ways to actually win the game and space for extra disruption post-board.

Strengths

Whirza's greatest strength is its flexibility. It has the ability to assume any role in any matchup, and to quickly switch gears thanks to the numerous interlocking plans in its maindeck. There's also the fact that sometimes Ensnaring Bridge just wins games. Goblin Engineer is not only a tutor, but it can act as a card-draw engine with Mishra's Bauble and a mana accelerant. It's also relatively easy to assemble Thopter-Sword on turn three thanks to Engineer.

Weaknesses

Whirza is particularly vulnerable to graveyard hate thanks to Goblin Engineer. Having additional tutors is a solid Game 1 plan, but Game 2, Engineer is unlikely to pan out; opponents will specifically target the graveyard, which doubly hurts, as Whirza depends on its tutors more than other versions. Hate also neuters the Thopter-Sword combo, which Whirza is especially invested in. Thopter Foundry isn't entirely dead without a graveyard, but it's very hard to keep enough artifacts flowing to turn them into a win, especially in the face of pressure. Relying on Foundry also means that Whirza can't run Engineered Explosives, increasing its vulnerability to creature decks and hate cards.

This build also runs the risk of clunking out. Part of that is the higher land count, but it's mostly a trade-off of the deck. Being a toolbox deck means having an answer for anything. That doesn't mean the tools are useful for everything. Silver bullets are narrow by nature, and drawing one means not drawing a more generally useful card.

Whirza plays more tutors than the other versions so it can fix its frequently awkward draws. A frequent problem for Whirza is needing to find both a combo piece and a way to survive the turn cycle while only having one tutor. I've seen lots of Whirza players fight mightily to not die, only to subsequently durdle to the grave in lieu of Lord High Artificer.

Urza Ascendancy

The next deck to make waves was the pure combo version. When Emry, Lurker of the Loch was printed, players quickly realized that she went infinite looping legendary Moxen with Jeskai Ascendancy in play: every Mox cast via Emry triggers Ascendancy, then replaces the current version, which in turn can be recast an arbitrary number of times. Players then win by attacking with a huge Emry or with a combo of their choice.

Urza Ascendancy, Robert Hayes (Top 8, SCG Regionals Columbus)

Creatures

4 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
1 Sai, Master Thopterist
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer

Instants

3 Paradoxical Outcome

Planeswalkers

2 Saheeli, Sublime Artificer
1 Oko, Thief of Crowns

Enchantments

4 Jeskai Ascendancy
1 Mirrodin Beseiged

Artifacts

4 Engineered Explosives
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal
3 Mox Amber
4 Arcum's Astrolabe
3 Witching Well

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Prismatic Vista
1 Breeding Pool
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Steam Vents
4 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

3 Mystical Dispute
2 Galvanic Blast
2 Lavinia, Azorius Renegade
2 Oko, Thief of Crowns
2 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Veil of Summer
1 Weather the Storm
1 Path to Exile

It's the dream that so many have had since Jeskai Ascendancy first became a thing in Modern. The best part is that Chalice doesn't stop anything. Ascendancy doesn't care if spells resolve, just that they're cast.

Strengths

I don't think this deck has special strengths or better matchups than the other versions. Instead it has busted hands. Turn one Emry followed by turn two Ascendancy is a seriously fast kill, and more reliable than Neobrand thanks to the Moxen. Ascendancy is a more pure combo deck than the other versions, and is thus far less vulnerable to being disrupted or raced.

Weaknesses

As a combo deck, Urza Ascendency is more vulnerable to anti-Storm hate and taxing, as well as crumbling when the plan doesn't combo together. Jeskai Ascendancy, Mirrodin Besieged, and Urza, Lord High Artificer can't be tutored for or brought back if Emry mills them. Witching Well goes a long way, but can be excruciatingly slow, which erodes any advantage it had over more reliable versions in the first place. Having to run all the non-artifacts also increases the likelihood of too many payoffs, too few enablers. As expensive payoffs, those cards also contribute to clunky hands.

This problem is exacerbated by how finicky the combo is. The pieces must be assembled in the right order, and if one is out of place, there is no combo. Without exactly Emry on the field, Jeskai Ascendancy doesn't combo off (though it can potentially generate a lot of value). Without Mirrodin Besieged, there is no instant win. It is possible to make the pieces decent on their own, but if Emry gets Bolted before Ascendancy lands, the combo fails.

When the combo kill doesn't come together, Urza Ascendancy is kind of stuck. It has the means to generate a massive board with Sai and Saheeli like the other versions, but Ascendancy plays fewer copies of those threats, making it harder to pull off. The enchantment itself can make huge creatures, but won't generate mana without Urza around. It's also hard to cast the card early without a fast Emry to turn on Amber. And there's no room for Thopter-Sword. The problems of actually pulling off the included combo appear to have turned players off this pure combo version, and it has dropped off recently.

Paradoxical Urza

The Paradoxical Outcome version of Urza looks and plays startlingly similarly to Vintage Outcome. I began noticing this deck after Ascendancy starting making waves, and at the time, it was billed as a more reliable version of that deck.

Paradoxical Urza, Luis Scott-Vargas (Test Deck)

Creatures

2 Sai, Master Thopterist
3 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer

Planeswalkers

2 Saheeli, Sublime Artificer
1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Instants

4 Paradoxical Outcome

Artifacts

4 Engineered Explosives
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal
4 Mox Amber
1 Everflowing Chalice
4 Arcum's Astrolabe
3 Witching Well
1 Pithing Needle
1 Blasting Station

Lands

4 Prismatic Vista
3 Polluted Delta
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Watery Grave
7 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Swamp

Sideboard

1 Timely Reinforcements
2 Mystical Dispute
1 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Spell Pierce
4 Fatal Push
2 Thoughtseize
2 Teferi, Time Raveler
2 Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas

Strengths

Unlike Ascendancy, Outcome doesn't need to draw the right spells in the right order, have anything in particular on the battlefield, or do any special setup at all. All that needs to happen is for the board to be full of artifacts when Paradoxical Outcome resolves. From there, it's just a matter of getting enough mana out to resolve Urza and/or a win condition. There's no real need to actually combo off: just drawing lots of cards is enough. Therefore, it's far simpler to pilot.

This decks is also less vulnerable to graveyard hate than the other versions.

Weaknesses

This deck has a lot of four-mana spells that it must resolve to do anything special. It doesn't have room for any maindeck protection for those spells. Thus, it is more vulnerable to disruption than other versions. Outcome has also given up on Thopter-Sword to make room; like Ascendancy, its backup plan is subsequently unimpressive.

Oko Urza

The final and newest version is still a bit of a mystery in Modern. With only one event's data to work with, I don't know how it fits into the wider picture of the metagame or the Urza family. It feels very weird both to play against and to pilot.

Oko Urza, Jeremy Bertarioni (3rd Place, SCG Atlanta)

Creatures

4 Gilded Goose
4 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer

Instants

2 Metallic Rebuke
2 Whir of Invention
3 Cryptic Command

Planeswalkers

4 Oko, Thief of Crowns

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal
3 Engineered Explosives
4 Arcum's Astrolabe
1 Aether Spellbomb
1 Sword of the Meek
1 Thopter Foundry

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
2 Polluted Delta
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Mystic Sanctuary
1 Breeding Pool
1 Watery Grave
4 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Forest

Sideboard

3 Damping Sphere
2 Fatal Push
2 Thoughtseize
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Assassin's Trophy
1 Collective Brutality
1 Drown in the Loch
1 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Pithing Needle
1 Plague Engineer

Oko Urza doesn't try to be anything other than an artifact deck, and endeavors to make the artifacts as good as they can be. It plays more mainboard protection than other versions, and fewer artifacts. To make up for this change, it generates a constant stream of food with Oko and Gilded Goose, hoping to bury the opponent under life and Elks. Thopter-Sword is still present, but fairly incidental. The deck feels more midrange than anything else, but without most of the hallmarks of classic midrange.

Strengths

At time of writing, the greatest strength is that this deck is new. Players aren't experienced enough to understand how to attack Oko Urza, boosting its win rate. Additionally, it attacks from a weird angle and doesn't feel like a typical Modern deck. Oko is also a significantly undercosted planeswalker and easily takes over games. Leaving Urza himself aside, the unique part of the deck is Oko generating a constant stream of food and/or elk, which are individually unimpressive in Modern. However, the utility of each activation snowballs and a tipping point is reached where the game just slips away. It's Standard style gameplay that's viable in Modern for the first time and hard to fight if you're not ready for it.

Weaknesses

In a flip of the script, I'm not sure this deck does anything without Oko, to the point I'd target him over Urza. There's even less utility for the enabler artifacts than a typical Urza deck without Oko around. Urza has far more artifacts to work with, but without Oko around to turn that into an army, the Artificer is stuck generating purposeless value. A single Foundry as additional token generation leaves no wiggle room should something go wrong. Despite feeling like a midrange deck, Oko Urza is soft to disruption like a combo deck.

Where Goes Modern?

Unless Urza eats a ban, which is unlikely anytime soon given the recent spate of bannings and the relatively few Modern events for the next few months, the Urza archetype is here to stay. What form it will actually take is unclear. The combo versions have more weaknesses than the other versions. However, it isn't clear whether Oko or Whirza is the way forward. There may even be other versions to come. I think that Whirza's flexibility is a greater asset than Oko's value, but I wouldn't count out a forthcoming hybrid version that melds the best of both worlds.

QS Flash Cast: Pioneer’s First Bannings

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Welcome back to the QS Cast! Join Chris O’Berry and Sam Lowe as they talk about the new non-rotating format, Pioneer and its first Banned & Restricted announcement. This cast was originally broadcasted live to Insiders in the QS Insider Discord, November 4th, 2019. Chris Martin was out on leave after corrective surgery. Wish him a speedy recovery!

Show Notes

Show notes provided by Sam Lowe
Brief recap:
- think carefully about potential pioneer bans before buying/selling -Teferi, Time Raveler, Oko, Thief of Crowns, Field of the Dead, Treasure Cruise, Dig Through Time, Nexus of Fate, Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx, are all on the watchlist
- sealed product from traditionally low-impact sets is likely undervalued due to future pioneer staples
- buy metagame staples before it's obvious that they're staples
- Right now that means Enter the Infinite and Possibility Storm -don't forget about Commander Finance because it's still king

Wanna chat? Find us on Twitter or in the QS Discord

Chroberry – @chroberry
Chris Martin – @ChiStyleGaming
Sam Lowe – @MahouManSam

Modern Horizons: Investment Opportunity or Trap?

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Pioneer continues to make headlines in the world of Magic. Players and speculators alike are both watching events closely, monitoring the unfolding of the metagame and identifying the cards they most want to purchase.

Even though I’ve largely avoided Pioneer speculation, even I have picked up a few copies of Oath of Nissa. This card is appearing in a few different decklists and at $3.50, the entry point was attractive enough to take a shot. I wasn’t really quick enough to pick up any of the other hot Pioneer specs, unfortunately. With so much uncertainty around the upcoming Pioneer B&R announcement, I wasn’t too eager to go deep.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

Instead, I’m wondering if we should be paying closer attention to a particular bucket of underappreciated cards. These cards were at one point the talk of the community. Many believed their prices had bottomed, and speculated accordingly. Now, after the Pioneer announcement, many of these cards are finding their all-time low prices.

What set am I talking about? None other than Modern Horizons.

Horizons: A New Low

There was once a tremendous amount of hype around Modern Horizons. The set was a gold mine, and one could not do wrong to speculate on these unique cards. Every time one showed up in a new Modern decklist, the card would spike. That’s how a card like Giver of Runes spiked from $5 to $13 in short order.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Giver of Runes

However, the landscape for this set has changed dramatically thanks to recent events. Modern, which was once the favored format for many who were tired of Standard but couldn’t justify buying into Legacy, could be facing a decline in popularity. Pioneer is the talk of the town—unfortunately, that leaves out most cards in Modern Horizons.

The result: Modern Horizons demand is bottoming out. While "MSRP" on booster packs remains in the $7 range, consider this retweet from Card Kingdom out of Command Fest:

Amazing pricing on Alliances boosters aside, check out that Modern Horizons booster pack price tag! It’s still a little more expensive than Standard boosters, but it’s shocking to see such a premium product sell at this discounted of a price. If you purchase an entire box from TCGPlayer, you could pay even less—the cheapest price there right now is $194.85 and falling.

Then you have the expected value of the set, as calculated by MTG Stocks. Check out that declining graph—it looks like it is most recently taking a new leg lower, notching all-time lows.

While things look dire for the set, I have to wonder
is there any opportunity in this trend?

A Case for Speculating

Rather than chasing Pioneer buyouts in a world of so much uncertainty, it may be wiser to speculate on discounted Modern Horizons cards. These cards are better understood in terms of their utility. Despite the current Pioneer hype, it’s doubtful Modern disappears from the tournament scene altogether. After all, we still get the occasional Legacy tournament, right? And the Modern player base has to be far larger than Legacy’s.

Which Modern Horizons cards are most attractive? I can think of a few groups of cards that should maintain a robust demand profile despite Pioneer headlines.

First, there are the Commander staples. How about something like Altar of Dementia, a $1 rare that is listed in nearly 10,000 lists on EDH REC. Mill is always a popular strategy amongst casual players, and the card was only printed in Horizons, Conspiracy, and Tempest. Along these same lines is Eladamri's Call, which is also sub-$2 and played in around 10,000 EDH REC lists. Everyone loves their tutors, right?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eladamri's Call

Other cards with Commander and casual demand include the slivers, such as The First Sliver, and the two Swords. These cards have prices well off their highs, yet will always have a steady stream of demand from formats outside of Modern. Therefore, these cards should be immune to Pioneer’s surge in popularity. One day the demand will soak up the supply and prices will stabilize.

If you really wanted to avoid losses, you could speculate on Commander playables that are also near bulk. My personal favorite is Genesis, of which I have about 150 copies and counting. Every time I make a trade with ABUGames or purchase from Card Kingdom, I grab the eight copies of Genesis they have listed because their pricing is so low. This used to be a $12 card. Obviously that high price was due to scarcity more so than demand, but $0.35 seems way too low for this card. Don’t forget, Modern Horizons copies pre-sold for $6.99!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Genesis

Another basis for speculation is if the cards see play in Legacy and Vintage while also being a prominent force in Modern. Perhaps their popularity in Modern is robust enough to withstand a slight recession in Modern cards. I’m thinking of staples such as Wrenn and Six, Force of Negation, and Urza, Lord High Artificer. These are all still priced robustly, though I’ve noticed a small divergence in sell prices and “market” prices that could indicate a pending drop.

Lastly, there are the rare lands of Modern Horizons. You have Prismatic Vista at $30 and the five Horizon Canopy lands. These will all experience sustainable demand in time, but are suffering from soft demand in the short term. Eventually these will be a buy—you just need to pick the price you’re comfortable paying and be content to wait a while.

A Case for Caution

My advice on all of these potential specs is to stay on the sidelines a bit longer—I think these will be cheaper in a month than they are now. In fact, that probably goes for all Modern Horizons cards beyond the bulk. A card like Force of Negation seems like it’ll be a timeless staple, but even this card has dropped 5% from its highs and will continue its declines. The most in-demand staples will still fall.

The thing is, Pioneer is just now ramping up. The format is in its infancy, and players and speculators alike will continue to shower the format with their attention (and dollars) for months yet. Modern Horizons cards will one day be an attractive buy, mark my word. There’s enough going for this set to sustain a premium once the supply has had a chance to bleed off a little bit.

This is underscored by the list of all-time lows showing up on MTG Stocks’ site. Check out these Modern Horizons cards notching their all-time lows over the weekend:

That’s a list of cards I would be thrilled to open from a Modern Horizons booster pack. Yet each one is rapidly selling off. How low can these go, I wonder?

If you want to get more aggressive, you could focus on foils. Foil supply is sure to be far less than their non-foil counterparts, and this may lead to an earlier stabilization of prices. Commander staples, for example, should carry a higher foil premium regardless of Modern’s popularity.

But be careful—foils also carry with them a higher buy-in. Modern Horizons has been around long enough now that the high foil multipliers on Commander staples are already in place. There are no hidden gems out there any longer, so you’ll still need to wait for demand to outpace supply before prices can rise further.

A popular meme comes to mind, and it was so fitting that I couldn’t resist its inclusion.

That about sums it up.

Wrapping It Up

Overused memes aside, Pioneer is going to do a toll on Modern prices. This has already manifested itself in Modern Horizons’ weakness, and will likely continue for a couple months. If Pioneer takes off, then Modern prices could become very soft. Don’t forget, we had so many reprints of cards in Masters sets—if demand were to soften, prices could tank significantly.

During this time of uncertainty, there may be some opportunities. Modern Horizons cards that see most their demand from other formats will eventually become attractive buys. This week I highlighted a few of my favorites.

But I’m not buying anything just yet. It’s too early, and Modern Horizons cards are just now making all-time lows. This will likely continue for some time, yet. Other Modern staples will likely pull back drastically as well. Even Fetch Lands—one of Magic’s blue chips—have drifted downward over the past few months. These won’t hit their lows, mind you, but they still have plenty of room to fall.

While we wait, we watch. Keep an eye out for deals, maybe acquire cards here and there using ABUGames credit, and be patient. There’s an opportunity here, given enough time. And you won’t have to deal with Pioneer hype and speculator competition, an added benefit!




Sigbits

  • There has been some interesting turnover on Card Kingdom’s hotlist of late. I noticed Gaea's Cradle made its return to the list, though its buy price is far off the highs ($215). Still, this card will always have a robust demand profile. Perhaps the recent sell-off is an opportunity to acquire that copy you’ve been waiting on.
  • Here’s an obscure one: Eighth Edition foil Urza's Power Plant is now on Card Kingdom’s hotlist with a $66 buy price. I’m not sure how that compares to other sites, but it does seem out there, especially given the recent fade in Modern’s popularity. Perhaps these would be noteworthy cards to unload in case Modern continues to falter?
  • Vampiric Tutor has been on Card Kingdom’s hotlist for some time now. They currently offer $47 on Sixth Edition copies, $51 on Eternal Masters, $48 on Judge Promos, and $44 on Visions Why they pay more for white-bordered copies than Visions copies is beyond me, but there you go.

How Cheap Planeswalkers Are Warping Modern

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To me, the breakout Modern development of 2019 wasn't the long-awaited Stoneforge Mystic unban, the rise and fall of Arclight Phoenix, or the frightening flash of Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis. Rather, it was the introduction of cheap planeswalkers on a massive scale. Beginning with War of the Spark, Wizards unleashed on the format gameplay the likes of which we'd never seen: matches decided by hard-to-answer value machines with relevant static abilities resolving, sticking, and grinding opponents to a halt.

The trend continued with Modern Horizons, whose printing of Wrenn and Six single-handedly revived Jund while enabling a host of lesser decks; now, the cheap-walker tradition extends to Throne of Eldraine, which brings Oko, Thief of Crowns to the fray.

Today, we'll look at how cheap walkers came to define the format.

Pre-Game: Liliana of the Veil

Of course, cheap walkers weren't entirely new to Modern when War rolled around; Liliana of the Veil had spent many years representing for the card type. But it was pretty much just her. These days, despite still ranking as one of the format's better black cards, the walker has quite the competition.

As a standalone card, Liliana interacted with the board at an unprecedented rate, not only offering players a then-unprinted Edict effect but an upticking value machine that promised even more removal down the road, all while heavily disrupting critical-mass and control-slanted decks.

Planeswalkers as a card type reward players boasting enough interaction to resolve and protect them; in other words, midrange decks. Liliana's double-black requirement joined with Thoughtseize's color identity to make black-based midrange the dominant flavor throughout the format's history. Fatal Push proved the nail in the coffin for that battle—while we do occasionally see, say, Temur-colored midrange decks rear their heads, the strategy is overwhelmingly black-dominated, something I don't expect to change any time soon.

With that being said, printing cheap walkers in other colors is a definitive first step to diversifying the color profiles of midrange strategies.

First Wave: War of the Spark

War brought numerous three-mana walkers into Modern, shaking Liliana's standing as one of the format's lynchpins.

Narset, Parter of Veils

Narset, Parter of Veils was an early hit from War thanks to the then-stifling presence of Arclight Phoenix. The walker's static ability shut down not just Phoenix, but other Faithless Looting decks, completely debilitating cantrip-heavy strategies while simply peeving less-reliant shells.

Format effects: gives blue-heavy decks a mainboardable way to hose velocity strategies

Winners: UW Control, blue-based aggro-control

Even against decks without cantrips, though, Narset won her weight as a card, immediately digging for a spell and then doing so again the following turn should she not eat a Bolt. That super-Divination would leave behind the static ability. Even if she was answered in the following turn cycle, Narset ended up plussing, as her removal still cost opponents a card if they didn't have threats ready to swing at her. UW Control, a deck great at keeping the board clear, ended up being Narset's forever home.

UW Control, by Patrick Wu (5th, Face to Face Quebec Open

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

3 Narset, Parter of Veils
1 Teferi, Hero of Dominaria
2 Teferi, Time Raveler
3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Instants

1 Shadow of Doubt
3 Cryptic Command
3 Force of Negation
4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
1 Logic Knot
3 Mana Leak

Sorceries

2 Supreme Verdict
1 Timely Reinforcements

Sideboard (15)

2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Celestial Purge
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Dovin's Veto
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Hour of Revelation
2 Mystical Dispute
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Vendilion Clique

Lands

2 Celestial Colonnade
4 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
1 Geier Reach Sanitarium
2 Hallowed Fountain
5 Island
1 Misty Rainforest
1 Mystic Gate
2 Mystic Sanctuary
2 Plains
1 Prairie Stream

Teferi, Time Raveler

Another UW standby, Teferi, Time Raveler offers similar benefits: the walker presents a card advantage engine as it disrupts opponents with a static ability. While great at pushing through threats in control mirrors, Teferi's found more success as a self-replacing piece of soft-disruption in tribal aggro strategies like Spirits, or a wall of insulation against enemy disruption in combo decks such as the ubiquitous Urza.

Format effects: lets combo-based decks happy to splash it employ a proactive floodgate plan against instant-speed disruption, all while staying even on cards

Winners: Urza, Infect, Spirits

Jeskai Urza, by Jidden (5-0)

Creatures

4 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer
3 Goblin Engineer
1 Sai, Master Thopterist

Planeswalkers

2 Saheeli, Sublime Artificer
2 Teferi, Time Raveler

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe
2 Chromatic Star
4 Mishra's Bauble
3 Mox Amber
4 Mox Opal
1 Pyrite Spellbomb
1 Sword of the Meek
3 Thopter Foundry

Enchantments

4 Jeskai Ascendancy

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
5 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Damping Sphere
2 Galvanic Blast
2 Lightning Helix
3 Metallic Rebuke
2 Monastery Mentor
1 Pithing Needle
2 Timely Reinforcements
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Wear / Tear

Saheeli, Sublime Artificer

Continuing the daisy chain is Saheeli, Sublime Artificer, another player in Urza decks. Saheeli provides a Plan B to anyone casting noncreature spells, be they artifacts or instants and sorceries—indeed, we've seen this walker make a splash in decks as diverse as Mardu Midrange and Arclight Phoenix.

Format effects: forces opponents of blue or red decks with access to Saheeli to remember their sweepers after sideboard

Winners: Mardu, Phoenix, Delver, Urza

Ashiok, Dream Render

Finally, we land on Ashiok, Dream Render, the last of War's walkers to make a lasting impact. Ashiok has by and large been a sideboard card since its printing, but it remains one of the top-played walkers in the format for the many types of hate it provides. Between nuking the graveyard, preventing enemy searches, and potentially removing key cards from the opponent's deck, Ashiok poses a nightmare for plenty of strategies. As it doesn't impact the board, though, it's often too risky to run in the maindeck; nobody wants to be aggro food!

Format effects: Makes search-heavy and grave-synergy decks more cautious against blue and black midrange decks

Winners: Ux and Bx midrange/control strategies

Shakeup: Modern Horizons

Horizons isn't known for its planeswalkers per se, but it did drop into circulation what I'd call the most powerful planeswalker in Modern: Wrenn and Six. At just two mana, Wrenn promises to snowball card advantage for any fetch-heavy deck (read: most of them) if not dealt with posthaste. And rapidly killing a 4-loyalty walker isn't very easy for anyone to do, making Wrenn an ideal follow-up to a deceased mana dork or other play on an empty board.

Format effects: Adds an early-game dimension to games featuring x/1s, incidentally hating on those decks, and provides players with a Dark Confidant-esque card-advantage engine during the early stages

Winners: multicolor midrange decks

That's not to mention Wrenn's -1 ability, which I'd argue has impacted the kinds of creatures Modernites can safely sleeve up. x/1s now need to pass an even higher bar to meet playability standards. Gone are the days of futzing around with synergy-creating 1/1s; Wrenn plays like a super-Liliana when it comes to dealing with those. Here it is in Jund:

Jund, by Manoah (2nd, Modern PTQ #11995292)

Creatures

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Bloodbraid Elf
2 Dark Confidant
2 Scavenging Ooze

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil
3 Wrenn and Six

Instants

1 Abrupt Decay
2 Fatal Push
3 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceryies

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Thoughtseize

Lands

1 Barren Moor
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Nurturing Peatland
2 Overgrown Tomb
2 Raging Ravine
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
1 Treetop Village
4 Verdant Catacombs

Sideboard

2 Alpine Moon
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Collective Brutality
1 Collector Ouphe
3 Fulminator Mage
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Leyline of the Void
2 Plague Engineer

Wrenn has also enabled plenty of multi-colored decks, including the 4-Color Snow lists wielding Arcum's Astrolabe. Hitting a land drop each turn, and especially a fetchland, ensures that these decks have the colors they need, and in the right amount.

4-Color Snow, by Peter Strauch (1st, Eternal Series: Modern)

Creatures

4 Ice-Fang Coatl
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Planeswalkers

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Wrenn and Six

Artifacts

4 Arcum's Astrolabe

Instants

2 Assassin's Trophy
1 Cryptic Command
2 Fatal Push
3 Force of Negation
3 Kolaghan's Command
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Opt
2 Spell Snare
3 Thought Scour

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
1 Breeding Pool
1 Field of Ruin
1 Lonely Sandbar
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Overgrown Tomb
2 Polluted Delta
2 Prismatic Vista
3 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Forest
3 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Alpine Moon
2 Ancient Grudge
1 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Collective Brutality
3 Disdainful Stroke
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Plague Engineer
1 Weather the Storm

Belle of the Ball: Throne of Eldraine

Our last stop is Throne of Eldraine, Magic's newest expansion. Throne has already begun to significantly impact Modern, not least of all because of one, maybe-Standard-bannable planeswalker: Oko, Thief of Crowns.

Oko gives the Simic combination something it's never had access to in a solid removal option. While turning fatties into Elks doesn't exactly remove them, it might as well when it comes to abilities. Besides, a 3/3 is much easier to deal with than, say, a 6/6. After just one full turn cycle on the battlefield, Oko can also steal enemy creatures with its ultimate, trading away a nigh-useless Food token for whatever Goyf opponents are hiding behind.

This combination of abilities makes Oko attractive even in low-curve strategies such as Traverse Shadow. We're also seeing it in Bant Company, a deck beginning to enjoy an abundance of attack angles thanks to its other recent addition in Stoneforge Mystic. Heck, even UG Merfolk is making a comeback with Oko in its ranks, and UG Eldrazi don't look too shabby, either.

Format effects: Grants UGx decks a solid, on-color removal plan doubling as a value train

Winners: Anything in those colors

Traverse Shadow, by jled (5-0)

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
1 Snapcaster Mage
4 Street Wraith
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Windcaller Aven

Planeswalkers

2 Oko, Thief of Crowns

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

1 Assassin's Trophy
1 Dismember
3 Fatal Push
3 Once Upon a Time
4 Stubborn Denial

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Island
2 Nurturing Peatland
2 Overgrown Tomb
4 Polluted Delta
1 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Assassin's Trophy
1 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Collective Brutality
1 Collector Ouphe
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Duress
1 Fatal Push
1 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
1 Plague Engineer
1 Spell Snare
2 Veil of Summer
1 Yixlid Jailer

But these uses aren't what's got most of the format's attention right now. That honor goes to Oko's newfound role alongside Urza, Lord High Artificer. With Emry, Lurker of the Loch looping cheap artifacts and Oko turning them into 3/3s, the deck is beginning to resemble Hogaak in its ability to pump out bodies nonstop and resist targeted hate (in this case, Collector Ouphe).

It seems a bit early to tell if Oko Urza will retain its title as the go-to Urza build in the future, but it is a force to be reckoned with currently.

Now What?

Wizards's apparent willingness to print great, cheap walkers bodes well for Modern's future. Walkers are unique enough in their individual design that most cheap ones with decent abilities should find a home somewhere, keeping the format from getting too stale. But if the company does decide to ban Oko from Standard, perhaps they'll decide (also informed by Teferi's performance) to tone back the power level of these permanents. They are indeed divisive, with Jon Finkel going so far as to claim planeswalkers in general ruined Magic.

Either way, I wonder if surgical answers like Abrupt Decay and Fry will start seeing more play now that cheap walkers have become a cornerstone of Modern. How are you beating the Elks?

Insider: Pioneer Speculation, Level 2

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Hopefully, everyone reading this has enjoyed good returns on the initial movers of Pioneer. Last week, I discussed the Pioneer dual land options and included some decent speculative targets. This week, I'll continue looking at the format and potential specs. I realize that the title of this article might seem a bit ambiguous so I think the first thing I need to discuss is my reasoning behind how I speculate for the Pioneer format.

Pioneer as a format consists of sets from Return to Ravnica forward. We saw substantial playerbase growth from Zendikar forward. With the format focused on the more recent sets, it means that the supply of most of the cards in the format is extremely high. In turn, we will likely see much lower price ceilings for format staples. This isn't Modern, so there aren't going to be cards that were printed once 16 years ago; our oldest legal cards were printed September 2012, over 7 years ago. What does this mean?

  1. Cards with multiple printings will have a much lower price ceiling due to high availability.
  2. While a few uncommons will have potential, most of the ones that do are likely already played in other formats so demand already exists for them.
  3. Given the high availability, when cards do spike, their prices will likely retract faster and end up further from the spike price as players quickly flood the market with copies.

Cards that are good in multiple formats might seem like good targets for speculation, but you have to consider who your customer base is regarding these options. It only makes sense that the new Pioneer format will increase demand for staples like Thoughtseize; their price already factors in eternal demand so your customers are only those who didn't already own copies for Modern or Legacy. These targets are much lower risk thanks to additional demand, though the reward is also reduced because the buy-in already factors strong demand into the price. These are also the cards that moved first, as they were the most low-hanging fruit.

The best targets are the cards that don't see play in any other format but become staples in the Pioneer format. They will have very low buy-in prices due to previous lack of demand and very good returns should you be able to sell into the spike. We have already seen some of these cards start to do so. The most obvious choices were the ones that were previously banned in Standard, though anyone who got in on those is best to get out ASAP, as there have already been hints that bannings of certain strategies are likely. These are cards like:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Saheeli Rai
There was an error retrieving a chart for Aetherworks Marvel

Now I will go out on a limb and guess that cards like Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time are less likely to be banned if only due to the fact that the format lacks a lot of cheap cantrips and no fetchlands filling the graveyard quickly isn't something that most decks can do.

Another strategy that many people are using is to look back at the best decks of Standard since Pioneer began, and see if any of them can be easily ported to the format. One very important thing to keep in mind with this strategy is that oftentimes the "best" deck in standard is heavily influenced by the metagame and by what answers opponents have for that particular strategy as well as the speed of the format.

On the "answers" front there are two potential speculative targets I see that shut down the biggest combo decks of the format and almost always seem to have some targets from opponents decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pithing Needle
There was an error retrieving a chart for Sorcerous Spyglass

Both of these artifacts can be used to preemptively stop key cards in many standard decks of old. From Aetherworks Marvel to Saheeli Rai to Liliana, the Last Hope, Pioneer seems to be a format with a vast number of activated abilities, and the ability to prevent their use BEFORE they can be activated once is huge. I imagine if we had access to either of these cards during Marvel or Copycat's heyday that bannings may not have been necessary.

Currently, Sorcerous Spyglass is basically a bulk rare, whereas Pithing Needle is actually sitting around $3. As the Pioneer format evolves we will get a better feeling on the speed, so we'll likely learn whether the extra mana to cast Sorcerous Spyglass is worth getting to see your opponents hand or not. We do also have Phyrexian Revoker courtesy of M15, however, being a creature is likely a liability rather than a strength as most decks pack some answer to creatures.

We also know that Mono-Red aggro decks have been the best deck in Standard multiple times during the Pioneer set period, and aggro decks prey on unrefined metagames, which is why we often see them win the first few weeks after set rotations. I think Pioneer is no exception; it wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of Mono-Red decks show up in the MTGO 5-0 decklists. While straight-up aggro is not everyone's cup of tea, there are a few cards that are likely to find a home in most Mono-Red lists.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Legion Loyalist

Legion Loyalist has been above $10 twice AFTER it had rotated out of Standard. The recent guild kit printing definitely crashed its price. However, it still provides two important keywords on a one drop with haste and has a relevant creature type. Copies can be had for under $3 and I could easily see a jump back to $10+ if Mono-Red proves to be a format defining archetype.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul-Scar Mage

Soul-Scar Mage is another powerful red 1-drop with two important keywords. It has prowess, which has spawned a tier 2/3 archetype in Modern, and it essentially gives any source of noncombat damage whither. While one might ignore that second one, one of Mono-Red's biggest problems is when the opponent can stick a big enough threat to act as a roadblock that forces the aggro player to keep losing their best creature each combat. This effect is especially good with a card like Searing Blood helping kill the roadblock AND still deal damage to the opponent.

Lastly, I want to discuss cards that get better with larger card pools. Speculator and MTG Pros alike have often been baffled when cards with seemingly high power levels never materialize into decks. Many times this is because the card pool at hand doesn't support them in a way to maximize their power. This is why cards like Deathrite Shaman, while extremely powerful in eternal formats, saw very little Standard play due to the lack of lands that quickly enter the graveyard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prime Speaker Vannifar

Birthing Pod is currently banned in Modern after creating a very powerful creature-based combo deck. While Vannifar is certainly weaker than Pod, it's a creature that can be tutored for with Chord of Calling and is in a powerful color combination. The creature card pool in Pioneer is decently large, and while I can't currently come up with any game-winning combos using Vannifar, she offers a ton of value. This is mostly thanks to multiple creatures that can untap her when they enter the battlefield, accelerating out powerful creatures while filling the graveyard. I'll admit that without a specific combo chain in the format, this one does seem a bit more ambitious as a speculation target, but it does have a powerful and desirable ability; it can always be used as a commander too, so the risk is minimal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Paradox Engine

After being banned in Commander, this card plummeted in price. It never really found a home in Standard and so far hasn't really found one in Modern yet. Its power level is high enough that it may eventually break out, but we'll see. That being said, Pioneer seems like a great format for this card to shine. The card pool is big enough to allow you to do pretty broken things with it, but small enough that games should hopefully last long enough to reliably cast the 5-mana artifact.

Forming the Meta: Regionals and Atlanta

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It has been a frustrating year for analyzing the Modern metagame, as multiple bannings and an influx of new cards have churned its natural state. Things are finally starting to stabilize, which means that a reasonable picture is forming. We've got a burst of new data to thank for that quieting down.

Nonetheless, the new data isn't perfect; its most questionable factor is its source. All the events I'm working with, and most of what's on the horizon, are Star City Tour events, which aren't the best indicators of the overall metagame for a couple reasons.

The tour is limited to the eastern US and is dominated by eastern teams; it doesn't actually represent the global player base, nor the metagame as a whole. Its results must be taken with a grain of salt.

Regionals Metagame

I'd intended to analyze Regionals last week, but the results weren't in yet. The wait ended up providing a strong contrast for Atlanta's results. As usual, since Regionals is not a singular event but spread out events on the same day, it is more likely to indicate the overall metagame than any individual event. The starting population is more likely to be reflective of the overall population the larger it is, and spreading it out helps alleviate local bias. Therefore, Regionals is more likely to represent an accurate view of the overall US metagame than SCG Atlanta.

Deck NameTotal #
Amulet Titan12
Mono-Green Tron9
Jund7
Dredge6
Grixis Death's Shadow4
Bant Snowblade3
Mono-Red Prowess3
Burn3
Titanshift3
Jund Death's Shadow3
UW Control3
Humans2
Esper Control2
Whirza2
UW Stoneblade2
Infect2
GW Eldrazi2
Eldrazi Tron2
Jeskai Control1
Gifts Storm1
Urza Ascendancy1
Slivers1
Gruul Ponza1
Naya Stoneblade1
Hardened Scales1
Urza Outcome1
Niv-Mizzet Reborn1
Esper Stoneblade1
Urza Midrange1
Counters Company1
Ad Nauseam1
Sultai Death's Shadow1
Izzet Control1
Crabvine1
Blue Moon1
Sultai Midrange1

The top decks are remarkably similar to what we saw in Indy, with the exception of very little Urza. That archetype didn't even crack the top 10 decks. Why isn't immediately clear, but it's worth remembering that this is not an uncommon result. Some decks perform better in long events than in shorter ones, and it is possible that Urza is one such deck.

Decks having different win rates based on tournament length is hard to observe or quantify, but in my experience it typically occurs due to the players and decks that show up to bigger events being more mainstream than smaller ones, and thus easier to prepare for. However, in some cases, the result comes down to variance. Decks with higher good variance have more opportunity to do so the longer the tournament and make up for any bad variance. Meanwhile stable variance decks will be favored in shorter tournaments. They may also get relatively easier to play as fatigue sets in.

It is also possible that Urza was a bad call for Regionals. Despite Indy suggesting Urza's potential to dominate, the deck leans heavily on its namesake card; perhaps players were aware and ready. A sampling of all the reported decks shows a high concentration of artifact hate and Torpor Orbs, which shuts down both the Thopter Combo and Urza's enters ability.

Also, Dredge did well. There wasn't much graveyard hate in the decklists. These facts are linked.

Atlanta Day 2

And then we have the sharp contrast of SCG Atlanta. Everything that I speculated about the data from Regionals is strongly contradicted, to the point that it makes one question my sanity in making said speculations.

Deck NameTotal #
Simic Whirza10
Amulet Titan9
4-Color Whirza7
Mono-Green Tron7
Burn7
Crabvine6
Titanshift5
Grixis Death's Shadow5
Eldrazi Tron5
Jund Shadow4
Jund4
Infect3
UW Control3
Affinity3
4-Color Death's Shadow2
Urza Midrange2
Urza Outcome2
Dredge2
Temur Snow2
Mono-Red Prowess2
Sultai Death's Shadow1
Jeskai Saheeli1
Merfolk1
Counters Company1
UW Stoneblade1
BW Stoneblade1
Bant Stoneblade1
Devoted Devastation1
Lantern Control1
Niv-Mizzet Reborn1
Humans1
Gruul Karn1
NeoBrand1
4-Color Soulherder1
Bant Eldrazi1
Urza Ascendancy1
Zoo1
Gruul Aggro1
Mono-Green Aggro1

For reasons unknown, StarCityGames didn't lump the singleton decks together as "Other." Such would be the largest category if they had, as per usual.

However, the story is the Simic Whirza deck that sits atop the standings. 4-Color Whirza is the third best deck with a scattering of other versions present, making Urza the most popular archetype in Atlanta. I'd actually hesitate to differentiate the Simic and 4-Color decks, as most of the latter feature the exact same gameplan as the Simic decks: the idea is to use Emry, Lurker of the Loch to loop Mishra's Bauble for card advantage, play as many artifacts as possible, and make them into 3/3 Elks with Oko, Thief of Crowns. Few decks can withstand planeswalker upticking to produce Wild Nacatls. The pure Simic decks go in on food generation with Gilded Goose, while the 4-Color decks have Goblin Engineer and sideboard black cards.

Amulet Titan continues to be the best-performing non-Urza deck by a mile, followed by Tron tied with Burn. It's hard to say why Amulet is doing so well, but I suspect that player focus on beating Urza is a significant factor.

Atlanta Top 32

For all its domination in the standings, Urza didn't win the Open. That honor went to Grixis Death's Shadow; Thoughtseize into Gurmag Angler with Stubborn Denial backup is just as strong as it ever was against decks with few relevant cards and fewer answers.

Deck NameDeck Title
Simic Whirza9
4-Color Whirza5
Amulet Titan3
CrabVine2
Grixis Death's Shadow2
Devoted Devastation1
Eldrazi Tron1
Humans1
UW Stoneblade1
4-Color Shadow1
Gruul Karn1
Urza Outcome1
Urza Midrange1
Jeskai Saheeli1
Infect1
Jund1

For all the thought that Shadow kept Urza in check, the Artificer still put by far the most decks into the Top 32. And five Simic decks into the Top 8. Amulet was a distant third, as might be expected given its starting population. The rest of the Top 32 is full of interesting decks, indicating a dynamic and healthy Modern, but it's hard to ignore the 14 decks packing Urza.

Classic Correlation

Normally at this point, I'd have a "wait!" and show that the Classic wildly contradicts the Open and muddies the picture. Today's report diverts from this tradition.

Deck NameTotal #
Simic Whirza 4
Grixis Death's Shadow2
Izzet Delver1
Jund Goblins1
Mono-Green Tron1
Amulet Titan1
Jund1
Burn1
Four-Color Outcome1
CrabVine1
UW Control1
Infect1

Just like the Open, the Classic was dominated by Simic Whirza. Also just like the Open, Whirza didn't actually win. Instead, Izzet Delver took the day, and I suspect for similar reasons to Death's Shadow's win. It may also explain why Shadow had the second best performance in the Classic. Like Shadow, Delver backs up a reasonable clock with counterspells... in this case, a lot of counterspells. I imagine Whirza struggled to resolve anything against Russell Lee the whole tournament. Mystical Dispute from the sideboard must have put the nail in the coffin for that matchup.

Confounding Variables

It would be easy to knee-jerk that Simic Whirza is clearly the best deck and that it is inherently busted. Atlanta's results and the community's reaction indeed suggest that at first glance. However, the data is deceptive.

The shocking amount of Simic Whirza is no accident, nor indicative of an actual metagame shift. Apparently, it was a team deck. Team Lotus Box were almost entirely on Simic Whirza and evidently spread the word, if not directly then via their Twitter and Discord. As previously mentioned, most of the 4-Color decks appear to be built off the Simic deck, so Lotus Box may have influenced those, too. Having an entire team on the same deck necessarily boosted its numbers and resulting visibility. Their being high-level players meant that they did very well, as they may have with any deck.

The other challenge in analyzing Simic Whirza is the deck's newness. There was no indication that Oko and Urza were a thing until Atlanta. Some players probably weren't fully prepared, made incorrect evaluations and decisions, and boosted Whirza's win rate. The true test is yet to come: if Simic Whirza is actually as good as it seems, then it will gradually absorb other Urza decks and maintain strong results. If it only worked thanks to surprise, it will fade, just as the Jeskai Ascendancy decks have.

Beyond the Team Deck

Looking past the Simic flood in Atlanta, big mana is the story. At Regionals, Amulet Titan followed by Tron were the best decks, and were the most popular non-Urza decks in Atlanta's Day 2, in keeping with Indianapolis's results. It is also worth noting that the Urza decks have definitively shifted away from the combo versions and towards midrange since Indy. Interestingly, Jund was third at Regionals, as it was in Indy's Day 2, but it had no impact in Atlanta.

Instead, there's Burn and Crabvine. Burn makes sense, as Urza can't go nuts against Eidolon of Rhetoric and ramp strategies struggle to either race or interact with burn spells. Crabvine is an attempt to relive the Hogaak glory days using Hedron Crab and Merfolk Secretkeeper to fill the graveyard and go ham with reanimating creatures. The deck is very powerful, but also pretty dead to graveyard hate. Luckily for Crabvine, Modern players have gotten complacent and are skimping on hate.

Developing Trends

Urza, Jund, and Burn winning things isn't particularly surprising. However, it does beg the question of why it's happening. After all, banning Faithless Looting and unbanning Stoneforge Mystic was supposed to usher in a more midrange-based format. Part of this may be that the problems associated with actually using Stoneforge are preventing the expected shift. It could also be that with graveyard decks out of the way, ramp becomes the natural apex predator. The real reason is almost certainly not so simple. I see two possibilities:

The first scenario is that Urza decks are defining the metagame, and big-mana decks are the benefactors. Urza, Lord High Artificer is an absurd card: a mana engine, card advantage engine, and threat, all in one. His power in midrange/combo decks is so high that there isn't room for any other blue deck. The deck combos out turns 3-4, has Engineered Explosives, and can run counterspells and discard to protect itself and push through other midrange decks. A strong lead doesn't matter: if Urza ever hits the board, many decks just lose. Jund is the only midrange deck with the discard spells, removal, artifact hate, graveyard hate, and clock to challenge Urza, and takes the remaining space for midrange decks while suppressing aggro. Jund is also quite good against the fast combo and Humans decks that Urza struggles against, which in turn beat ramp. With big mana thriving, Burn gets a boost.

The second flips the causality, proposing that Jund is actually defining the metagame and Urza is the benefactor. Jund has always been a staple of Modern and received a lot of good cards recently, bringing old adherents back and adding new converts. Jund has excellent matchups against any deck relying on small creatures, particularly Humans now that Wrenn and Six exists. These decks can swarm and/or disrupt the Urza decks that keep Jund in check. Jund also has an advantage over other midrange decks in its discard and stronger, cheaper planeswalkers.

In either case, we are in for a lot more top-heavy Magic for the foreseeable future. Wizards almost certainly doesn't have enough data to make a banning decision yet, and will be more focused on Standard anyway. This means that decks will need to find a way to break through the Urza-Jund-Tron wall to find success.

Trouble Brewing

I don't like what I'm seeing. I really hope that Simic Whirza isn't the way of the future. A combo deck filled with do-nothing artifacts is fine. However, a planeswalker turning them all into 3/3 Elks forever is extremely format-limiting. Modern isn't Standard, and I hope that the deeper cardpool has the answers. We need to wait and see.

The MTGO Frontier: Calling All Pioneers!

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MTGO is back in the news in a big way thanks to Pioneer, and Magic players are taking notice. MTGO quietly recovered over the summer. First the value of a ticket recovered from a post-Arena low of $0.75 up to $0.90 (and is now all the way up to $0.96!). At the same time, card prices recovered slowly and steadily. By the end of summer, my collection value was almost as high as it was before Arena went into open Beta. Now, thanks to renewed interest in MTGO, card prices have more than fully recovered. Indeed, my collection is worth more now than it was before Arena went into open Beta -- the same happened to SaffronOlive.

Thanks in part to the renewed interest in MTGO, I'm now getting all sorts of questions on Discord and through other channels, and none more frequently than "When are you going to start writing again?". The answer is that I will once again be providing regular MTGO Finance content, starting now!

Other frequent questions include: "What will Pioneer do to card prices?" "What will happen to Modern?" In my next article, I'll look at these two questions, exploring certain investment strategies and opportunities that could pay off going forward. Expect to see that article later this week.

But today I want to focus on the larger question I've seen being asked, the most fundamental question, whose answer informs every financial decision we make with Magic Online. "What will Pioneer do to MTGO? What does Pioneer mean for MTGO going forward?".

I. Pioneer is a format that players want to play!

One thing about Pioneer is clear. This format is for real. I say this not because I think the format is going to be great (I think the format will be great once a few problematic cards are banned, but we're going to have to wait a month or two to get there). I say this because the hype surrounding Pioneer is so strong and widespread that we know it is coming from a deeper place of genuine want. This isn't a format that needed WOTC employees to write cheesy articles to convince everyone to play it. Magic players have been yearning for an eternal format that feels like contemporary Magic, a format that plays and feels differently than Legacy or Modern. Players have been yearning for an eternal format that lets them use their Standard cards, a persistent need that bolstered Modern in its infancy and that will undoubtedly bolster Pioneer in its.

Pioneer comes at an ideal time. We've now had several years of sets created with a design philosophy that emphasizes creature combat, one that has led to Standard environments feeling wholly different to Modern and Legacy. Until now, players relatively new to the game have not had a way to play with their old cards in a format that feels similar to Standard. With Pioneer, newer players and players who primarily draft will have a great opportunity to try their hand at an eternal format, and I see many of them already seizing this fresh and exciting opportunity to do so.

Magic players have also been yearning for a financially accessible eternal format, one that doesn't require a $1,000 investment to jump in. Wizards made several executive decisions with Pioneer that make this more likely. First is that the starting point is Return to Ravnica, the beginning of the era where Wizards sold way more booster boxes than ever before. Second is that the fetchlands are banned, thereby guaranteeing that mana bases will cost nowhere near as much in Pioneer as they do in Modern.

Perhaps most importantly, Pioneer is going to introduce players brought into the game through Magic Arena to an eternal format. Magic Arena has brought so many new players to the game, not just to Magic Arena but also to paper Magic and Magic Online. It is no accident that this format was announced only after Arena had been out for a year, giving Arena players time to learn and get invested in the game. Now is a great time to welcome Arena players into the wider ecosystem that is Magic: the Gathering.

II. MTGO and Dissatisfaction with Arena and Standard

Pioneer will not be coming to Magic Arena and will be available only in paper and on MTGO. This has made many Arena folks upset, and the strongest condemnations I've seen on Twitter have unsurprisingly come from Arena streamers like Jeff Hoogland and Jim Davis. But even apart from the streamers, that Pioneer will not be coming to Arena has been a flashpoint and an impetus to reflect for many players, making many question their engagement with Arena and consider playing MTGO again.

What unsettled many is that, in the starkest and most direct terms possible, Wizards informed Arena players in the Pioneer announcement that Magic Arena is Magic Arena. We already knew that Hasbro created and funded the development of Magic Arena to compete in the booming industry of digital free-to-play (f2p) card games, to compete for the time and money of the sorts of gamers who were already playing Hearthstone, Gwent, and Eternal. Many enfranchised Magic players started playing and sinking money into Arena believing that Arena was going to become the digital platform where Magic in its myriad forms would be played, streamed, and broadcast as an eSport; this was a mistake in judgment.

Arena is a platform and stand-alone game religiously devoted to capturing an audience that emerged a decade ago, one that had proved elusive for the Magic brand. Everything about it (even the labyrinthine menu interface!) is designed to maximize the engagement of this target audience. It is a f2p game aggressively monetized in the same vein as other digital card games. It has long animations, immersive sounds, and battlefield pets to stimulate the player and keep him engaged. It has bot drafting so that there are no queue times and so that there is no time in between picks. Its focus is on Standard because Standard more closely resembles the gameplay style seen in less complicated and more battlefield-centric games that these players are familiar with. In a word, Arena tries both to be familiar to a wide digital card game audience and to be a video game that keeps the player immersed,  stimulated, and active at all times.

Pioneer, Modern, and Legacy have no place in the execution of this vision. Nor does Cube. Nor does human drafting. Arena has been successful in no small part because it has been so aggressive in targeting a new audience with unique wants, needs, and expectations, confident that its paper and MTGO offerings were good enough for its historic core audience. I believe it would be a boon to Magic eSports if the MTGO client were modernized and made more amenable to broadcasts; likewise for the creation of technology that could capture a physical paper game and broadcast it digitally. But those are independent initiatives that have nothing to do with Arena. Magic Arena is Magic Arena.

Perhaps this is stating the obvious because we've already seen it happening, but we can expect some more enfranchised players to shift back from Arena to MTGO, and we can expect some players whom Arena introduced to Magic to give MTGO a first look for Pioneer. Even a trickle from Arena has major implications for MTGO and for MTGO Finance (and is good for the overall brand, as the traditional core Magic audience is stickier than the digital card game audience).

I've written this section to say this: MTGO financiers should be confident in an overall positive financial outlook for MTGO going forward. MTGO is and will be the premier place for enfranchised players to play Magic in all its myriad forms. Arena has brought an influx of players and excitement to the game, which coupled with Pioneer will result in userbase growth for MTGO. Players new to MTGO should feel comfortable buying in and playing any format they desire. Enfranchised players who dropped MTGO for Arena should feel comfortable buying back in to MTGO to play their favorite Constructed format (drafting is far cheaper on MTGO now than it used to be as well). Speculators and investors should feel comfortable putting more money into the platform as well.

III. The Future

Right now Pioneer is on fire. Prices on potential Pioneer staples is through the roof. While I therefore won't be speculating on premier Pioneer staples, I do want to look more closely at Standard and Modern staples and look for potential Pioneer hits that are going unnoticed.

I have confidence that this is a good strategy because the renewed interest in MTGO will likely spur demand for all formats across the platform. I will discuss this in my next article, which should come out later this week.

I do want to briefly mention that if you haven't been drafting Eldraine, you should start! Not only is it a rich and exciting format with good gameplay, but the value is also very good. Right now if you have a 50% winrate it will cost about $2.50 to draft. And you can draft infinitely if you have a 58% to 60% winrate. Relax and enjoy!

Thanks for reading, and I hope that this article reassures MTGO investors and potential new MTGO players that now is a good time to put money onto the platform and play. It is my job here at QS to help make MTGO more affordable for you, and my next article will aim to do just that! If you have any questions, feel free to leave a comment or hit me up on Discord.

How Pioneer Awakened MTG Finance

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Author Disclaimer: I bought no cards when Pioneer was announced. A few days after the announcement, I finally picked up a few Kaladesh Fast Lands, a couple foil Abrupt Decays, and a lone Hangarback Walker using some spare ABUGames store credit I had. That’s it.

Was it just me, or was Magic finance becoming a bit stale this season? Throne of Eldraine was an impactful set that carried an interesting theme. The Showcase cards created a new way of opening cards of value from booster packs, much like Masterpieces. Elsewhere, Modern unbannings were supposed to catalyze newfound interest in the format.

But none of this seemed to matter.

Then on October 29th, 2019, Magic finance was given a shot in the arm thanks to the Pioneer announcement. This new format awakened the sleeping beast that is Magic finance—let’s just say there were no hangovers.

The Awakening

The picture above depicts the top movers over the past week—notice anything? Other than Trade Routes, every spike above is driven by MTG finance speculation on Pioneer. In fact, there are no less than 30 Pioneer card/card printings that more than doubled since the announcement. Even Felidar Guardian, an uncommon from Aether Revolt, spiked to over two bucks!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Felidar Guardian

Speculators wasted no time guessing what would be most powerful in the format. No stone was left unturned, no strategy left unexplored (or unexploited). Energy, Jund, Copy Cat, Blue Control, Abzan, and even Merfolk / Mono U Devotion were considered sufficient strategies for speculation, amongst others. No matter what new Pioneer deck you’re excited to test, there are at least some components of the deck that now cost at least double their price previous to the announcement.

This is exactly why I use the “sleeping beast” analogy. Other than an unbanning or random one-off buyout, Magic finance had been very quiet for months. Many older cards, such as the Old School cards I particularly appreciate, have retracted in price so drastically that it has created attractive entry points. My focus had been on ABUGames arbitrage (of which the opportunities have been dwindling). To me, Magic finance was asleep.

Not anymore. The Pioneer announcement poked the sleeping beast aggressively enough to awaken it. The consequences are dire.

Consequences

Wouldn’t you think the awakening of MTG finance would be good for the hobby? It reinvigorates the flow of cardboard from peer to peer, increasing cash flow and liquidity in a market that desperately needed action.

I won’t deny that many parties will benefit from the new format. Any time a new source of demand arrives on the scene, it generates sales. Vendors will see increased activity, strengthening their balance sheet. Players who were sitting on Standard table scraps post-rotation from the format may suddenly find their collection is more valuable. These are positive catalysts for market health.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aetherworks Marvel

Now, consider the downside impact. A relatively new player has been interested in Modern, but couldn’t take the plunge due to the financial barrier. This Pioneer announcement may have energized that player because they, too, could now afford a non-rotating format. After deliberation, and perhaps watching the first couple online events unfold, they may decide what deck they want to play.

They look online, and suddenly all the rare and mythic rare components of their preferred deck are suddenly double or triple the price they were just a short time prior. What gives? Now, instead of paying a couple hundred bucks for a tier 1 deck, they are stuck paying $500+. I suspect this experience will leave a sour taste in many interested players’ mouths.

Even me. I wasn’t about to pick a deck to play the first day of Pioneer’s announcement. I wanted to see how the metagame evolved first. Now if I want to play Pioneer, the cost is twice as high. It’s very frustrating!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abrupt Decay

What’s even more frustrating is watching stores and speculators alike suddenly post Pioneer cards for sale in large numbers at high prices. I don’t know who this vendor is, but their listings are most egregious when it comes to supply
notice how their asking price is around 3x market price?

My concern is that the Pioneer market has already run dry, not because everyone immediately went out and purchased a deck or two to test, but because speculators bought up dozens of copies at a time in order to profit from this announcement.

Obviously, the new format will bring more cash flow into the hobby. But it feels like the speculators and vendors will be the ones reaping the financial benefits. Newcomers to the format, or anyone that hesitated from buying, will be paying the price.

Death, Taxes, and MTG Finance?

If this experience teaches us anything, it’s that MTG finance can’t really die. As long as Hasbro continues to invest in Magic, players will look for ways to extract value from the game. We could bury our heads in the sand like a bunch of ostriches hiding from reality, or we could choose to accept this fact. Perhaps the only things certain in life are death, taxes, and MTG finance.

Rather than ignoring these trends and feeling disgruntled because costs are much higher, we need to be proactive and engaged in the community. Participating in discussion on social media—especially Discord channels—will keep you in the loop on any news that may impact the market.

This engagement doesn’t mean you have to flip over to the “dark side” that is MTG finance. You can follow along so that you can acquire a couple key playsets of cards you want to brew with before the price goes insane.

Just because others are buying dozens of copies with the sole purpose of profit doesn’t mean you have to.

When Pioneer news was announced, the Quiet Speculation Discord was abuzz with cards that are likely to spike. That could be your cue to buy your playset before the card spikes. Or, if the spike already occurred, you could get a feel for how likely such a spike will stick or if the price will retrace. Perhaps some patience would yield a more attractive entry point. MTG finance can help with such assessments.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Confluence

For example, within the Quiet Speculation Discord, there was much abuzz regarding what cards would be safest to buy given no one could really predict the metagame. Rather than go after niche cards that fit only into one strategy, some Insiders had recommended sticking to cards that could fit into multiple strategies. This especially applied to the lands. Therefore, you may have taken that as your cue to pick up a playset of each Kaladesh Fast Land as well as Mana Confluence. These are likely to be played across the format thanks to the banning of Fetch Lands, and may be worthwhile pickups.

As bad as it may feel, the old mantra “If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em” comes to mind. Not all MTG finance needs to be manipulative and exploitative. There are many ways to engage in the practice without catalyzing buyouts and re-listing cards at 2x their previous price. If nothing else, the awareness can save you the hassle and frustration of acquiring cards. Saving money be keeping ahead of trends can be just as valuable as profiting through speculation, while perhaps being less morally ambiguous.

Wrapping It Up

I would be remiss if I didn’t touch upon one last MTG finance event that occurred concurrently with the Pioneer announcement. This is the alleged leaks that made it into the community before October 21st. I can honestly say I knew nothing about the rumor. It sounds like those in the know may have speculated using MTGO in an attempt to acquire key cards ahead of the inevitable buyouts.

All I want to say on this matter is that it reflects very poorly on the MTG finance community. This led to more negative press. Let’s face it: the community didn’t exactly need more reasons to be hated. But please be aware that even bad press still places attention on MTG finance. It draws attention to the practice of speculation and the potential rewards for doing so. To use the sleeping analogy, putting down the practice can unintentionally keep it awake.

This is why I preach passive, persistent engagement with the community. To ignore MTG finance altogether is to voluntarily pay higher prices whenever news hits the wire. By remaining in touch with the community, we can be aware of trends. From there, the decision on how to act is upon the individual. As long as you’re comfortable with the decisions you’re making, you can remain engaged with the hobby without violating any personal morals.

This fine line may be the best way to engage in the hobby going forward. Or else, accept the fact that speculation practices will persist and higher prices will be the result.




Sigbits

  • I thought Dual Lands were all dropping steadily in price. Yet, out of the blue, Card Kingdom puts Unlimited Tundra on their hotlist. Though, to be fair, their buy price is only $390 whereas ABUGames’ is $526.50 cash. Despite dropping their buy prices on many Old School cards, it appears ABUGames is still aggressive when it comes to Unlimited Dual Lands. Their Near Mint cash number on Unlimited Underground Sea is most impressive, $947.70!
  • Not long ago Card Kingdom had Guru Islands on their hotlist. This week I noticed Guru Mountains show up, sporting a $210 buy price. I’m not sure how this compares to other online vendors, but it does reflect a recent increase in demand for the card to suddenly see it on Card Kingdom’s hotlist.
  • On the negative side, I’m surprised to see Card Kingdom’s buy price on Judge Promo Mana Crypt to drop so low: $95. It remains on their hotlist, but who would sell any version of Mana Crypt for less than $100 nowadays? The card has been hot for a while now, and I don’t think it retraced that drastically. ABUGames pays $124 and change for the same card. The fact that Card Kingdom pays $130 for the EMA version but only $95 for the Judge version tells me they must have a real imbalance in supply.

Modern Top 5 (Halloween Edition): Black Cards

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Happy halloween, everyone! By the time my next article rolls around, we'll all have Kit-Katted (or in my case, Coffee Crisped) ourselves into a spooky stupor. So what better time than now to head off a Modern Top 5 series focusing on Magic's five colors? Naturally, we'll start with the scariest, so yank your head out of the apple barrel and flick on the nightlight!

Fairness has never favored the color pie, no matter the format; in Magic's early days, blue reigned supreme above the rest, endowed with the game-defining Counterspell in addition to the Power Nine's only colored entries. Since then, players of all sorts have made arguments for other colors as worthy of the ultimate title. In Modern, though, the discussion historically favors green and black; the former boasting the washed-out Tarmogoyf and Modern's most reliable card selection now that Faithless Looting has passed the torch, and the latter fronting... well, everything: hand disruption, top-notch removal, and menacing threats.

Carving Out the Criteri-o'-Lantern

No Modern Top 5 would be complete without a metric. Since the top cards in a given color can include any type of spell—planeswalker, hate, beater—we'll aim to use the most general metrics possible. I think those happen to be the ones established in the series's first entry, Modern Top 5: Utility Cards. Here they are again.

  • Power: The degree of impact the card tends to have for its cost.
  • Flexibility: The card’s usefulness across diverse situations and game states.
  • Splashability: The ease with which Modern decks can accommodate the card.

Power and flexibility will be rated by considering both a card’s floor (the least it will do) and its ceiling (its best-case scenario). For example, Lightning Bolt‘s power floor is higher than Fatal Push‘s, as Push is dead when opponents have no creatures while Bolt can go to the face.

Splashability will be rated by considering how many existing Modern decks can accommodate the card and whether they’ll want it. For example, despite its lack of a color identity, Ghost Quarter doesn’t fit into BGx midrange decks. These decks can easily run Fulminator Mage as mana disruption instead, and prefer not to miss a land drop if they don’t have to.

Each metric will be rated out of 5, giving cards a total rating out of 15. As ever, the usual disclaimer stands: just because a card scores low or doesn't make the list means little in terms of its overall playability. After all, splashability is a metric. Some of the strongest cards in the format in terms of raw tournament wins are themselves rather limited in terms of which decks can employ them.

#5: Plague Engineer

Overall: 10/15

Power: 3

Plague Engineer is what we call a blowout card—one that might have little impact, but also has the potential to single-handedly swing games. As such, it lands right in the middle of the power metric at 3 points, as well as in the middle of most black sideboards. Threboaste mana seems like a fair price to pay for this effect, if a little on the steep side; still, players probably won't want to slam a sweeper until after opponents have deployed a couple creatures. With a 2/2 attached, Engineer beats its namesake Engineered Plague on raw rate.

Flexibility: 3

The Carrier mostly exists for one purpose, but it has a couple additional applications. For one, it's got deathtouch, allowing it to trade with the biggest, baddest fatty on the table. And it's a creature, giving it extra dimensions over other permanent hosers. Engineer's typing makes it more vulnerable to enemy disruption; most removal spells will kill it. But the decks it's brought in against are usually of the tribal aggro variety, and those don't feature much in the way of creature interaction. Often, Engineer's 2/2 body is a boon, letting pilots turn the corner on infected opponents or block their shrunken guys.

In terms of the -1/-1 ability, it's to Engineer's credit that any creature type can be called. Having the ability to name, say, Human against an Eldrazi deck with multiple Noble Hierarchs on the board gives the card some extra play and makes decisions involving the call more dense.

Splashability: 4

With just one black mana in its cost, Engineer is plenty splashable. Modern is known for its great mana, so pretty much anyone looking to cast Plague out of the sideboard is able to. As a sideboard card, its splashability is increased, as Games 2 and 3 tend to be longer than Game 1; players have more time to find their colors and bullets.

#4: Liliana of the Veil

Overall: 11/15

Power and Flexibility: 4

As covered in Modern Top 5: Planeswalkers, Liliana applies heaps of non-damage pressure against anyone from critical-mass combo like Ad Nauseam or Valakut to fellow midrange and control decks like Jund or Stoneblade.

Splashability: 3

I've previously given Liliana a 4 on splashability, reasoning that any black deck can cast her. While that may be true, not any deck can cast her, and the double-black cost is prohibitive for all but the most dedicated of Temur decks. So, I take it back—Liliana, welcome to the bottom half of the Top 5. How the mighty have fallen!

#3: Collective Brutality

Overall: 12/15

Power: 4

Collective Brutality is our second and last card to return from a previous edition of Modern Top 5, having placed 2nd in Utility Cards. While none of its abilities are all that strong on their own, they combine to let the card do an insane amount of work for just two mana. The "cost" of discarding can even be a benefit in decks that need certain pieces of their engines in the graveyard to function, such as Dredge, Phoenix, and reanimation strategies.

Flexibility: 4

As for those abilities, they all draw from different parts of black's wheelhouse: losing life; gaining life; shrinking creatures; killing creatures; discarding cards. While Brutality can prove a lackluster draw at times, there's nary an instance in which it's totally dead.

Splashability: 4

As with most cards on this list, Brutality costs only one black mana, making it an attractive consideration for anyone dipping into the color.

#2: Fatal Push

Overall: 13/15

Power: 5

On to the real winners. In the number two spot we have Fatal Push, a card that redefined Modern removal, and by extension the benchmark for creature playability. At just one mana, Push kills an overwhelming majority of the most-played creatures in Modern, no matter which month you check the list (as of today, only Primeval Titan is safe from its grasp). Hitting many of those leads to a tempo boost similar to that offered by the much-narrower Spell Snare, once a Modern staple in pre-Push times. Thanks to fetchlands, revolt is live very often.

Flexibility: 4

Push is about as flexible as possible for a removal spell. I'd give Path to Exile a 5 here because it can take out literally anything, including creatures with persist or undying; I've given Bolt a 4, as while it kills less creatures than Push, it can also go to the face. In any case, I think Push is now the yardstick by which we measure what any removal spell can do.

Splashability: 4

While Push is as splashable as the rest of these one-color cards, it's rarely dipped into as an off-color sideboard option. Rather, its numbers fluctuate between 1 and 4 in decks maining black for other reasons. That's not to say Push isn't one of the main draws to the color. Like red (for Lightning Bolt) and white (for Path to Exile), the card makes black one of the necessary splashes for blue or green decks looking to interact.

#1: Thoughtseize

Overall: 14/15

Power: 5

The big winner should come as little surprise. Thoughtseize charges 2 life for one of the most powerful abilities in Magic: to strip any nonland card from an opponents' hand. To this day, no other card has been printed that executes that task as reliably and unconditionally as Thoughtseize, though its many imitators have seen plenty of tournament-level play; Inquisition of Kozilek, Duress, and the aforementioned Collective Brutality all spring to mind.

Flexibility: 5

True, discard spells do nothing when opponents have no cards in hand. But played carefully, Thoughtseize is never dead. It can be held until opponents do find cards, and then leveraged to push nasty plays through hidden permission or removal. Conversely, Seize excels at breaking up enemy synergies, ridding opponents of cards before they have the chance to come down and generate value. I'd say the main factors keeping Thoughtseize at bay are aggro's metagame presence and the fact that replacements get the job done often enough to warrant a split.

Splashability: 4

Not only is Thoughtseize quite splashable, it is frequently splashed—along with Push as a deck's interactive backbone, or as part of a sideboard strategy to provide insulation against synergy-dependent decks. Most often, though, it's featured as the former, best exemplified by Jund, the midrange king now returned to its throne by Wrenn and Six.

Boo-m!

That rounds out our first color-based Modern Top 5. Notably, all the cards in this list but Liliana of the Veil will be legal in Pioneer, Wizards's newest format; black seems poised to be very strong there. And it's certainly not going anywhere in Modern, where I'd say it still holds the title after all these years. Disagree? Fight me... in costume!

SCG INDI and ELD Finance Round 2/2

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Last week, we talked about my current thoughts on the Modern metagame, Eldraine’s massive impact on all constructed formats, and the potential fallout from Monday’s Banned and Restricted announcement. I’m writing this article Friday, 10/18/19, and I’m proud to say I didn’t have to change a thing (Edit: Okay, Pioneer, you win). I performed middlingly (tomorrow) at SCG Regionals, and Field of the Dead is now banned from Standard. No changes to other formats (Pauper doesn’t count because I don’t know anything about that format). I know we're all itching to dig into Pioneer, but it's really important that we explore the implication of Collector's Edition while the iron is hot.

Throne of Eldraine Collector’s Edition

As little as I care for Standard or for foils, Throne of Eldraine surprised me with the desirability of its Collector’s boosters. Once everyone lowered their expectations for this product and accepted it for what it is, it’s begun to seem more reasonable. I’ve even been trading for/buying some of these cards on the off-chance that some of them stick around in Modern, because the showcase cards are really cool! Brazen Borrower and Bonecrusher Giant both look awesome, for example, and aren’t really that expensive relative to how I perceive their scarcity.

That said, what the heck is going on with these Finance-wise? Sure, Brazen Borrower is a mythic, but the showcase nonfoil costs more than twice as much as a regular nonfoil! I expected foil multipliers to be buck-wild due to demand outstripping supply, but nonfoils too? Wait a minute
 are there really only two mythic rare showcase cards? Realm-Cloaked Giant has a 2-3x multiplier for nonfoil as well. We’re likely not seeing this border or card style again for quite some time, so these two particular cards are in a fairly unique position. Get them soon if you have any interest, as this border likely won't be reused for future Collector's sets.

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The Game Has Changed

This is very different from what we normally see in Magic, but we need to figure out the financial impact of all this so we can make more informed decisions moving forward. Especially if Wizards does a Collector’s Booster for Theros: Beyond Death as well, but we’ll get into that more later. First and foremost, the regular pack foil versions of Realm-Cloaked Giant and Brazen Borrower have almost no multiplier. At this time, you can purchase a non-foil Brazen Borrower on TCGPlayer for $9, and a foil for $13. A 1.4x multiplier is extremely small for a solid mythic rare from the most recent set. Realm-Cloaked Giant also has the same, miniscule 1.4x multiplier.

Judging from the price spread between regular foil and non-foil Murderous Rider and Oko, Thief of Crowns, this trend is not exclusive to mythic rare showcase cards. It seems the pack-foil multiplier for cards with more premium versions is going to be lower than normal for this entire set. This makes perfect sense, as wide-spread availability of aesthetically superior versions is going to make the regular versions less desirable.

Collectors' Confusion

This is about as close as we can come to understanding the present impact of Collector’s Boosters. It’s actually way, way more complex than this, but I don’t have the tools or time to figure out how much so. To summarize, I present a few unanswered questions:

1) How heavily is regular booster pack EV affected by this? Will the lower prices of foils across the board be compensated for by the potential to get a rare card variant (which seems kind of unlikely because the chance of getting a foil variant is extremely low)?

2) What is the ceiling for the most expensive cards from Collector’s Boosters? The foil borderless version of Oko, Thief of Crowns can be found for just $160 currently, which seems like a steal of the supply is as low as it seems. Is the ceiling actually much higher for this card? Is WotC willing to reprint these high-end variants as judge foils or something similar, thus inflating supply?

3) Will Collector’s Boosters become a regular Magic product? Will Theros do this as well? Borderless planeswalkers have held strong prices in the past, in no small part due to scarcity. If every planeswalker ever printed from now on gets a borderless variant, is that a good thing or a bad thing in terms of how excited players will be for them? (Edit: Okay, Theros collector’s boosters were announced after I wrote, but before I submitted this article.)

Checking In On Modern

15th at SCG Regionals last weekend is honestly better than I was hoping for. As I said in my last article, I bought the entirety of Amulet Titan after scrubbing out of SCG Indianapolis. My goldfishing and discussions with better players than I led to me having a pretty solid understanding of the deck. I lost my win-and-in to top 8 against the Amulet Titan mirror in three decision-less games. I did, however, savagely punt game three of round three to Hardened Scales. I had him dead to rites, with a ridiculously improbable combination of several draw steps being his only potential out.

But instead of taking that 99%+ chance to win, I decided it would be more prudent to return a Forest to my hand off my Simic Growth Chamber. My opponent controlled Damping Sphere, and I, having played versus Alpine Moon all day, forgot that the wetball makes my karoo-lands tap for colorless. I then skillfully did not pay for my Summoner's Pact trigger on my next upkeep due to being a green source short. But hey, what can ya do? That's jazz, baby! Modern doesn't seem to be changing that rapidly right now, so I'm going to keep running this deck back until my attention is drawn elsewhere.

Pioneering Ahead

I write this conclusion on 10/21/19. Pioneer is announced as a new non-rotating format that will receive Grand Prix support. I was correct about Field of the Dead being banned from Standard, no changes to other non-Pauper formats, and about my middling performance at SCG Regionals. I’m feeling good about Amulet for SCG Atlanta, and Pioneer is shaping up to be very interesting. Pioneer itself deserves its own article, and we discussed it at length on the QS Cast this week in terms of some good buys.

The Usual Suspects

I still want to stress that you should be buying as much of the Pioneer index as possible, but do keep in mind that it is very likely that a lot of cards will be banned over the next couple months. Don’t go too deep on dangerous cards like Emrakul, the Promised End or Saheeli Rai. Don’t underestimate how high the prices of the manabase can go. Cards like Mana Confluence and Botanical Sanctum have already gone up and may make you feel like you’ve missed the boat, but if this format catches on, they have so much more room to climb.

Wizards of the Coast will have likely discussed more of their ban philosophy for this format by the time you’re reading this article, so my next article can have more information about what is likely to be banned and what is likely safe. Numerous cards are going to be spiking every day for the next several months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Confluence

Wrapping Up

Next time, we’ll go more in-depth regarding Pioneer and get into some more specifics about what to buy and sell in the format moving forward. I’m testing the format on MTGO when I have time, but my focus for the weekend will be Modern for SCG Atlanta. Wish me luck, and follow me on twitter @MahouManSam!

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