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Years ago, a Pro Tour would catalyze massive movement in the Magic market. I would cover all the major movers and shakers, possibly review the metagame and share my reactions. I would also include a screenshot of the MTG Stocks Interests page to highlight the disruptiveness to the financial world that is the Pro Tour.
Not so much this time.
Thatâs it. The entire Interests page for nonfoils from Sunday, November 9th. Letâs count the Standard cards that appear on the list: zero. In fact, I see three cards moving due to Pioneer, and then the usual noise that is the Old School market (prices fluctuate, but never go anywhere).
Clearly, thereâs no news here, other than Okoâs impending banning. But there is news from last week, with important implications. Allow me to elaborate.
Mystery Packs: The Good News and Bad News
The Mystery Booster Packs generated more hype than any set in recent memory, and the mysteriousness of it was rivaled only by Ultimate Masters. The production WOTC put on in revealing the product was even well-thought-out and elaborate.
Unfortunately, the greater the hype, the greater potential for disappointment. And thatâs precisely how the Magic community reacted (as if there was any other possibility?). Iâve gone from never using memes in my articles to now using one in back to back columns, but this was so fitting I could not resist its inclusion.
This pretty much sums up the experience that is the Mystery Booster Packs. Theyâre âlike a box of chocolatesâŠyou never know what youâre gonna get,â as Forest Gump so eloquently put it. That also means the set is clearly designed for a one-time, entertaining sealed event. Finance was not a consideration (other than the obvious Reserved List exclusion).
The community is so focused on value that a cold reaction to this product release was inevitable. While itâs possible to open value from these boosters (I saw one person open a Mana Crypt), more often than not a pack will contain a hodgepodge of inexpensive cards. Since the set is so large I have no clue what the EV of the set is. But at first glance, it looks meager.
But itâs not all doom and gloom. Thereâs one component to this set that has me seeing dollar signs:
It seems the playtest cards included in the Mystery Boosters will only appear in conventions. Local game shops will have different versions of the boosters. While we wonât know what the replacement will be until Monday, it leaves me wondering just how rare these playtest cards will be. Considering there are at least 121 one of them (the number listed on Scryfall), itâs extremely difficult to open a particular card.
Even though these cards arenât legal in constructed events, the most hilarious, iconic, or playable playtest cards will inevitably find their ways into Commander decks and cubes. The result: some of these playtest cards will be very valuable!
Of course the less desirable playtest cards will remain inexpensive, but these may be rare and novel enough that even the least interesting ones will be worth a few bucks. I donât know how many conventions will have this tournament, but the overall market supply for these will have to be fairly small. If there are 121 unique playtest cards, a 2400 player convention would introduce about 20 copies of each per convention. Assuming this will last even 50 conventions means total supply numbers around 1000. Thatâs rarer than an Alpha rare card.
Iâll be watching these closely, and will definitely hope to acquire a few that are most interesting to me. I think these will have some potential to appreciate. Supply will continue to bombard the market over the course of these events, but a time will come when the supply faucet will be turned off. Thatâll be it, then. No more copies of One with Death, or any of the other playtest cards. And even beforehand, there will likely be an opportunity to buy and sell these playtest cards while the market tries to figure out the appropriate value.
These playtest cards (and, possibly, their replacement in the LGS boosters) are going to be what makes these packs worth opening for value!
Legacy Is Dead, Long Live Legacy
On November 7th, Star City Games announced the end to Legacy tournaments on the SCG Tour. SCG gave life to Legacy many years ago when they started their SCG Tour. The result was an explosion in values for Dual Lands, Mox Diamond, Lion's Eye Diamond, and an array of other Reserved List Legacy cards.
Naturally, people are concluding that this announcement spells doom for Legacy. Jim Davis wrote an article on Cool Stuff Incâs site pronouncing Legacy dead, going as far as to say âgood riddanceâ to the format.
While this announcement certainly bodes poorly for the format, Iâm not sure if Legacy prices rely that heavily on demand for SCG Open play anymore. Star City Games hosted very few Legacy Opens in 2019 anyway. I see they had a couple legacy Opens in Syracuse, NY and they may have included Legacy in the Team Opens. But I canât imagine this catalyzed much demand for cards.
My hunch is that Legacy has gone the way of Vintage. There donât need to be large eventsâthe players who love the format will find ways to play. There will continue to be smaller-scale Legacy events all around the world. And since the Legacy metagame evolves so slowly, I suspect prices will remain largely unimpacted by this news.
However, to avoid risk of a pullback, I would recommend ensuring your Legacy exposure (beyond a deck you play) is limited to cards that see play in other formats. Dual Lands likely see more demand from Commander than from Legacy nowadays given the difference in the player base. Grim Monolith is another example of a card with utility outside Legacy.
On the other hand, Sneak Attack and Exploration would be two cards I wouldnât want to own right now. The same goes for any Legacy cards not on the Reserved List that see the most demand coming out of Legacy play. This is indeed a relatively small pool of cards. All the more reason I donât think the end of Legacy SCG Opens is all that important to the speculator/investor. Legacy cards have been rather uninteresting investments for years already, anyways.
And again, the end of SCG Legacy Opens will not mean the end of Legacy altogether. It will still exist, there will still be events with hundreds of players, but itâll happen a little less often. This difference just doesnât matter all that much, financially.
Pioneer Shake-Ups
The last headline I want to touch upon is the recent Pioneer bannings.
The most important line in the announcement isnât the banning of any cards. It isnât that itâs effective online before itâs effective in tabletop play. The most important line of that announcement, in my opinion, is the very last one: another B&R announcement to come one week later.
Wizards is clearly taking a âwait and seeâ approach when it comes to managing Pioneer. Rather than beginning with a huge ban-list, they prefer to let the metagame unfold, tweaking along the way. This approach has its pros and cons. But if I had any interest in playing this format, Iâd be inclined to wait a month or two before committing to a deck. Thereâs just too much uncertainty about what will be legal and illegal in the coming weeks.
This could hamper the growth of Pioneer out the gate, and it makes me want to remain hands-off as a speculator (I already got burned on a few Oath of Nissas. Iâm not in the business of buying popular cards only to have their utility squelched during a weekly banning. I expect this will leave some sour tastes in playersâ mouths, and itâll be interesting to see if there are any longer-lasting implications.
Wrapping It Up
While Standard continues to languish under Okoâs dominance, thereâs plenty of other news to keep Magic interesting. Pioneer is going through rapid changes as it finds footing in the tournament world. Legacy is under attack in its exclusion from the SCG Tour. And Mystery Boosters do in fact have financially relevant cardsâŠalbeit only in convention packs.
These three headlines are plenty to keep me engaged in the hobby for the time being. Even though my focus remains on Old School and Reserved List cards, I still have an appreciation for the ever-changing environment the game offers. Itâs what makes the hobby so fresh and different, day in and day out. Without such changes, the game really would stagnate.
So even though some of these changes/releases may frustrate us, itâs important to appreciate that the dynamic environment is critical in keeping the game refreshed. To stagnate is to die in this environment. Magic may have been inducted into the Toy Hall of Fame, but itâs not because of Alpha. Itâs because of the consistent reinvention the game has been able to undergo over the course of 26 successful years. Thatâs what makes Magic one of the greatest games ever created, and itâs what will keep me interested in the hobby, hopefully for years to come.
âŠ
Sigbits
- I just submitted a new buylist order to Card Kingdom when I noticed they were offering $305 on Guardian Beast. This is a stellar price considering the softness in the Old School market. I donât suspect this high of a buy price will last long.
- I thought Sword of Fire and Iceâs price would have dropped with the introduction of Pioneer. The unbanning of Stoneforge Mystic in Modern catalyzed a jump in price, but Modern is expected to be a bit soft in coming months as Pioneer receives an overweight amount of attention. But Card Kingdom must still be selling copies because they have a $70 buy price for Modern Masters copies of the card.
- Card Kingdom also has Iconic Masters and Legends copies of Mana Drain on their hotlist. Theyâre only offering $80 for the Legends copies, well off their highest offer to-date. But that $60 buy price on the reprinted version seems to be relatively good, and climbing! Since this card is banned in Legacy, itâs safe to say none of the recent headlines will be negatively impacting this cardâs value, and it should offer upside for the foreseeable future (barring a new reprint).










Speaking of cheap planeswalkers, 
Rounding things out today is

The lynchpin is Urza, Lord High Artificer. Simply put, he features a huge amount of absurdly powerful text, which may be appropriate flavor-wise given his
In terms of hate, artifact destruction is similarly mediocre against Urza decks. The only worthwhile targets are prison pieces and Thopter Foundry, each a dwindling part of the strategy. Abrade and company are still valuable in that respect, but should be regarded as speed bumps rather than an actual solution. In that vein, Stony Silence and Collector Ouphe are decent, but not exceptional; shutting down the Thopter-Sword combo is good, and turning off Engineered Explosives negates their main interaction, but most of the artifacts are just setting up the non-artifact spells. Urza cares about the quantity, not the utility, of its artifacts. Going deep in attacking artifacts is a good way to die with a hand full of dead cards.
it's very hard to keep enough artifacts flowing to turn them into a win, especially in the face of pressure. Relying on Foundry also means that Whirza can't run Engineered Explosives, increasing its vulnerability to creature decks and hate cards.
This problem is exacerbated by how finicky the combo is. The pieces must be assembled in the right order, and if one is out of place, there is no combo. Without exactly Emry on the field, Jeskai Ascendancy doesn't combo off (though it can potentially generate a lot of value). Without Mirrodin Besieged, there is no instant win. It is possible to make the pieces decent on their own, but if Emry gets Bolted before Ascendancy lands, the combo fails.
At time of writing, the greatest strength is that this deck is new. Players aren't experienced enough to understand how to attack Oko Urza, boosting its win rate. Additionally, it attacks from a weird angle and doesn't feel like a typical Modern deck. Oko is also aÂ
Where Goes Modern?




Of course, cheap walkers weren't entirely new to Modern when War rolled around; Liliana of the Veil had spent many years representing for the card type. But it was pretty much just her. These days, despite
Planeswalkers as a card type reward players boasting enough interaction to resolve and protect them; in other words, midrange decks. Liliana's double-black requirement joined with Thoughtseize's color identity to make black-based midrange the dominant flavor throughout the format's history. Fatal Push proved the nail in the coffin for that battleâwhile we do occasionally see, say, Temur-colored midrange decks rear their heads, the strategy is overwhelmingly black-dominated, something I don't expect to change any time soon.
Narset, Parter of Veils was an early hit from War thanks to the
Continuing the daisy chain is Saheeli, Sublime Artificer, another player in Urza decks. Saheeli provides a Plan B to anyone casting noncreature spells, be they artifacts or instants and sorceriesâindeed, we've seen this walker make a splash in decks as diverse as
Horizons isn't known for its planeswalkers per se, but it did drop into circulation what I'd call the most powerful planeswalker in Modern: Wrenn and Six. At just two mana, Wrenn promises to snowball card advantage for any fetch-heavy deck (read: most of them) if not dealt with posthaste. And rapidly killing a 4-loyalty walker isn't very easy for anyone to do, making Wrenn an ideal follow-up to a deceased mana dork or other play on an empty board.
But these uses aren't what's got most of the format's attention right now. That honor goes to Oko's newfound role alongside Urza, Lord High Artificer. With Emry, Lurker of the Loch looping cheap artifacts and Oko turning them into 3/3s, the deck is beginning to resemble Hogaak in its ability to pump out bodies nonstop and resist targeted hate (in this case, Collector Ouphe).

definitively shifted away from the combo versions and towards midrange since Indy. Interestingly, Jund was third at Regionals, as it was in Indy's Day 2, but it had no impact in Atlanta.
The first scenario is that Urza decks are defining the metagame, and big-mana decks are the benefactors. Urza, Lord High Artificer is an absurd card: a mana engine, card advantage engine, and threat, all in one. His power in midrange/combo decks is so high that there isn't room for any other blue deck. The deck combos out turns 3-4,



#5: Plague Engineer
The Carrier mostly exists for one purpose, but it has a couple additional applications. For one, it's got deathtouch, allowing it to trade with the biggest, baddest fatty on the table. And it's a creature, giving it extra dimensions over other permanent hosers. Engineer's typing makes it more vulnerable to enemy disruption; most removal spells will kill it. But the decks it's brought in against are usually of the tribal aggro variety, and those don't feature much in the way of creature interaction. Often, Engineer's 2/2 body is a boon, letting pilots turn the corner on infected opponents or block their shrunken guys.
Collective Brutality is our second and last card to return from a previous edition of Modern Top 5, having placed 2nd in
Overall: 13/15
Power: 5
Splashability: 4
