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Hopefully, everyone reading this has enjoyed good returns on the initial movers of Pioneer. Last week, I discussed the Pioneer dual land options and included some decent speculative targets. This week, I'll continue looking at the format and potential specs. I realize that the title of this article might seem a bit ambiguous so I think the first thing I need to discuss is my reasoning behind how I speculate for the Pioneer format.
Pioneer as a format consists of sets from Return to Ravnica forward. We saw substantial playerbase growth from Zendikar forward. With the format focused on the more recent sets, it means that the supply of most of the cards in the format is extremely high. In turn, we will likely see much lower price ceilings for format staples. This isn't Modern, so there aren't going to be cards that were printed once 16 years ago; our oldest legal cards were printed September 2012, over 7 years ago. What does this mean?
- Cards with multiple printings will have a much lower price ceiling due to high availability.
- While a few uncommons will have potential, most of the ones that do are likely already played in other formats so demand already exists for them.
- Given the high availability, when cards do spike, their prices will likely retract faster and end up further from the spike price as players quickly flood the market with copies.
Cards that are good in multiple formats might seem like good targets for speculation, but you have to consider who your customer base is regarding these options. It only makes sense that the new Pioneer format will increase demand for staples like Thoughtseize; their price already factors in eternal demand so your customers are only those who didn't already own copies for Modern or Legacy. These targets are much lower risk thanks to additional demand, though the reward is also reduced because the buy-in already factors strong demand into the price. These are also the cards that moved first, as they were the most low-hanging fruit.
The best targets are the cards that don't see play in any other format but become staples in the Pioneer format. They will have very low buy-in prices due to previous lack of demand and very good returns should you be able to sell into the spike. We have already seen some of these cards start to do so. The most obvious choices were the ones that were previously banned in Standard, though anyone who got in on those is best to get out ASAP, as there have already been hints that bannings of certain strategies are likely. These are cards like:
Now I will go out on a limb and guess that cards like Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time are less likely to be banned if only due to the fact that the format lacks a lot of cheap cantrips and no fetchlands filling the graveyard quickly isn't something that most decks can do.
Another strategy that many people are using is to look back at the best decks of Standard since Pioneer began, and see if any of them can be easily ported to the format. One very important thing to keep in mind with this strategy is that oftentimes the "best" deck in standard is heavily influenced by the metagame and by what answers opponents have for that particular strategy as well as the speed of the format.
On the "answers" front there are two potential speculative targets I see that shut down the biggest combo decks of the format and almost always seem to have some targets from opponents decks.
Both of these artifacts can be used to preemptively stop key cards in many standard decks of old. From Aetherworks Marvel to Saheeli Rai to Liliana, the Last Hope, Pioneer seems to be a format with a vast number of activated abilities, and the ability to prevent their use BEFORE they can be activated once is huge. I imagine if we had access to either of these cards during Marvel or Copycat's heyday that bannings may not have been necessary.
Currently, Sorcerous Spyglass is basically a bulk rare, whereas Pithing Needle is actually sitting around $3. As the Pioneer format evolves we will get a better feeling on the speed, so we'll likely learn whether the extra mana to cast Sorcerous Spyglass is worth getting to see your opponents hand or not. We do also have Phyrexian Revoker courtesy of M15, however, being a creature is likely a liability rather than a strength as most decks pack some answer to creatures.
We also know that Mono-Red aggro decks have been the best deck in Standard multiple times during the Pioneer set period, and aggro decks prey on unrefined metagames, which is why we often see them win the first few weeks after set rotations. I think Pioneer is no exception; it wouldn't surprise me to see a lot of Mono-Red decks show up in the MTGO 5-0 decklists. While straight-up aggro is not everyone's cup of tea, there are a few cards that are likely to find a home in most Mono-Red lists.
Legion Loyalist has been above $10 twice AFTER it had rotated out of Standard. The recent guild kit printing definitely crashed its price. However, it still provides two important keywords on a one drop with haste and has a relevant creature type. Copies can be had for under $3 and I could easily see a jump back to $10+ if Mono-Red proves to be a format defining archetype.
Soul-Scar Mage is another powerful red 1-drop with two important keywords. It has prowess, which has spawned a tier 2/3 archetype in Modern, and it essentially gives any source of noncombat damage whither. While one might ignore that second one, one of Mono-Red's biggest problems is when the opponent can stick a big enough threat to act as a roadblock that forces the aggro player to keep losing their best creature each combat. This effect is especially good with a card like Searing Blood helping kill the roadblock AND still deal damage to the opponent.
Lastly, I want to discuss cards that get better with larger card pools. Speculator and MTG Pros alike have often been baffled when cards with seemingly high power levels never materialize into decks. Many times this is because the card pool at hand doesn't support them in a way to maximize their power. This is why cards like Deathrite Shaman, while extremely powerful in eternal formats, saw very little Standard play due to the lack of lands that quickly enter the graveyard.
Birthing Pod is currently banned in Modern after creating a very powerful creature-based combo deck. While Vannifar is certainly weaker than Pod, it's a creature that can be tutored for with Chord of Calling and is in a powerful color combination. The creature card pool in Pioneer is decently large, and while I can't currently come up with any game-winning combos using Vannifar, she offers a ton of value. This is mostly thanks to multiple creatures that can untap her when they enter the battlefield, accelerating out powerful creatures while filling the graveyard. I'll admit that without a specific combo chain in the format, this one does seem a bit more ambitious as a speculation target, but it does have a powerful and desirable ability; it can always be used as a commander too, so the risk is minimal.
After being banned in Commander, this card plummeted in price. It never really found a home in Standard and so far hasn't really found one in Modern yet. Its power level is high enough that it may eventually break out, but we'll see. That being said, Pioneer seems like a great format for this card to shine. The card pool is big enough to allow you to do pretty broken things with it, but small enough that games should hopefully last long enough to reliably cast the 5-mana artifact.
Decks having different win rates based on tournament length is hard to observe or quantify, but in my experience it typically occurs due to the players and decks that show up to bigger events being more mainstream than smaller ones, and thus easier to prepare for. However, in some cases, the result comes down to variance. Decks with higher good variance have more opportunity to do so the longer the tournament and make up for any bad variance. Meanwhile stable variance decks will be favored in shorter tournaments. They may also get relatively easier to play as fatigue sets in.
The shocking amount of Simic Whirza is no accident, nor indicative of an actual metagame shift. 
definitively shifted away from the combo versions and towards midrange since Indy. Interestingly, Jund was third at Regionals, as it was in Indy's Day 2, but it had no impact in Atlanta.
The first scenario is that Urza decks are defining the metagame, and big-mana decks are the benefactors. Urza, Lord High Artificer is an absurd card: a mana engine, card advantage engine, and threat, all in one. His power in midrange/combo decks is so high that there isn't room for any other blue deck. The deck combos out turns 3-4, 
The second flips the causality, proposing that Jund is actually defining the metagame and Urza is the benefactor. Jund has always been a staple of Modern and received a lot of 
#5: Plague Engineer
The Carrier mostly exists for one purpose, but it has a couple additional applications. For one, it's got deathtouch, allowing it to trade with the biggest, baddest fatty on the table. And it's a creature, giving it extra dimensions over other permanent hosers. Engineer's typing makes it more vulnerable to enemy disruption; most removal spells will kill it. But the decks it's brought in against are usually of the tribal aggro variety, and those don't feature much in the way of creature interaction. Often, Engineer's 2/2 body is a boon, letting pilots turn the corner on infected opponents or block their shrunken guys.
Overall: 11/15
Collective Brutality is our second and last card to return from a previous edition of Modern Top 5, having placed 2nd in 
Overall: 13/15
Power: 5
Splashability: 4
The additional announcement of the 
her, it is almost always correct to do so immediately. If not, then the only option is to find a way around the Batterskull. This is easier said than done, since a 4/4 vigilance creature is a significant body in almost every matchup.
behind this joke. Stoneblade is not putting up impressive results, and every deck I've tested felt poor for different reasons.
Stoneforge stood to be especially potent here since Sword of Feast and Famine is exceptional in a deck that needs to tap out for threats but is also packed with counterspells. However, despite 
Stoneforge package means cutting planeswalkers and answers, and those have always been the main advantages of UW. Stoneblade must get by on situational counters and Path to Exile. In practice, I always feel behind against everything and struggled to catch up unless turn-three Batterskull goes unanswered. At least with control I knew when I was actually winning.
However, that doesn't mean that it won't work. I took UW Spiritblade to an MCQ last month and it performed well, although I missed Top 8 on tiebreakers. The Stoneforge package, specifically Sword of Light and Shadow, was critical to wins over Jund and Esper Control. As a grinding tool, I've never found anything better that works consistently in aggressive decks. The problem is that you need to be doing a lot of grinding for it to really matter, as the aforementioned awkwardness is palpable in an aggressive deck. Over longer games, the initially dead cards become more relevant and playable, and what had been awkward bricks change to game winners. However, my meta shifted away from control and towards combo and big mana, so I cut the package.
Mystic helps with the power problem, though not quite enough. The bonus from Swords is very welcome, particularly when the protection is relevant. However, it is rather slow and vulnerable to removal in response to equipping creatures. It's also not that hard for certain decks to answer the equipment itself, setting pilots back to square one. Batterskull is a decent threat, but often outclassed on the ground. As a recurring threat or when equipped to a flier it can swing games, but it can also be so clunky that it never gets going.
I've also heard chatter about other Stoneforge aggro decks, but that hasn't turned into anything concrete. Right after the unbanning, players were trying to make 
