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Insider: Opening a Game Store – Getting Started

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Over the past seven years, I've worked in four different gaming and comic stores. I opened one of my own with a partner. Some were small businesses. One was huge. I'm currently working at a game store franchise. I've seen some great business practices and some really terrible ones. I made a lot of mistakes, but I learned from them, and I'd like to share with you what I wish someone had shared with me and my partner back in 2012. When we started our business, we had no idea what we were doing, and we figured it out as we went. I don't recommend this approach

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I'm happy to share my experiences with you, but keep in mind that your mileage will most certainly vary. Every situation, entrepreneur, town, and store is unique. If you're a game store owner or a patron, and you have experiences you'd like to share in the comments, I welcome your insight. Multiple perspectives are valuable.

I live in the U.S., so there may be major legal and cultural differences if you live outside the U.S. Even within the U.S., laws and regulations differ from state to state and city to city. I will not be covering any laws, except the occasional federal law in the U.S. that apply to almost everyone here. Even those can change, so always, always check legislation. I can't detail your city's ordinances or give you step-by-step instructions to writing a business plan, but I can start you down the right path and give you an idea of what to expect. I can prepare you for those weird scenarios you won't think about until they happen to you. I can help you avoid some common pitfalls. Hopefully you'll be able to learn from my mistakes without having to make them yourself.

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If you have no idea how to run a business or where to start, don't sweat it. You can learn. Many resources are available for fledgling entrepreneurs, from local business associations to government agencies. My partner and I opened a new business in under two months, with under $40,000, no previous planning, and no entrepreneurial experience. We got lucky – we were financed by a family member, so we didn't have to make an official business plan or secure financing, and we were buying out an existing store, so we didn't have to find all-new fixtures or a location.

Despite those factors, it was still a lot of work. We had to research all of the laws and proper practices. We had to name the company, design a logo, and get a sign made and installed. We had to tear up and replace the carpet, paint the walls, put up slatwall, repair and rejuvenate old fixtures, research and choose a point-of-sale system, learn how to do bookkeeping, establish accounts with game distributors, and a lot more. I know, I'm not making this sound less daunting.

My point is, neither of us had any entrepreneurial experience. Between us, we had eleven years of experience working in game stores and zero years of business school, but we were willing to work hard and learn. We did it in two months with $40,000. If you think you need a business degree and a $100,000 startup fund, I'm happy to tell you you're wrong. All you need is moxy. With that, you'll figure out the rest. I'm not telling you to plow ahead on faith and grit; it takes moxy to be patient, do research, and make careful decisions.

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Let's assume you've only idly considered starting a game store and haven't done any tangible research or planning. Where do you start?

Finding the Right Resources

In the United States, we have a marvelous resource called the Small Business Administration. Their website has a step-by-step guide to starting a business in the U.S. The SBA can teach you the basic steps; I'm here to give you insight about running a game store and the specific challenges you'll face in the industry. If you're not in the U.S., your country probably has something similar.

There are other government agencies to help you. For example, Minnesota (where I live) has the Department of Employment and Economic Development, the Department of Administration, the Department of Labor and Industry, and an "eLicensing" site where you can look up and renew necessary licenses online.

All these sites have valuable information for new business owners, and most of it is written in everyday language, not legislative jargon. Go to your region's official website and locate the list of departments. Look at the page(s) of any department that sounds like it might be related to business, labor or commerce. Read them. Take notes on anything that seems important. Bookmark the pages. Print them out, highlight passages, write in the margins. This is your first business textbook.

Do the same for the federal government. Here is an A to Z list of all U.S. federal agencies.

Don't be shy with the government. If you have questions after studying these websites, call them up and ask. These entities exist to answer your questions and make sure you're doing things right.

Look for help at the most local level, too. Your city or neighborhood likely has a local business coalition. Check out your local Chamber of Commerce. There might even be a co-op of local game stores in your region.

Lynda.com currently has 1,309 courses on starting and managing a business. If you don't have an account and don't want to pay the $25 monthly for a subscription, you can sign up for a free trial and watch all the videos you can in 30 days.

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Once you know more about what it takes to start a business, consider the following questions:

  • Do you have the time to do all the additional research and preparation that comes next?
  • Is there a possibility you might start a family, purchase a house, move out of town, or make any other major life changes in the next few years?
  • New businesses take years to turn a profit. How will you supplement your income if your store can't pay you?
  • Have you ever worked in retail or customer service? Do you know why it's called "retail hell"?
  • Do you want to do this for the next ten years? For the rest of your life?
  • Is there room in your area's economy for a new game store?
  • Do you have the emotional fortitude to run a business? Are you good at handling crises and making decisions?
  • Do you have the physical fortitude? Do you have a strong immune system? Can you lift heavy boxes? Do you have any chronic health conditions?

These are not dealbreakers; you can still start your own business if that's your dream, but think about these things so you can prepare for your own unique challenges. Running your own business is a lot like having a child, so don't take it lightly. When you're a new business owner, there's no such thing as "off the clock." You're always mentally punched in.

However, also like having a child, owning your own business can be incredibly rewarding. It's not for everyone, and it's a lot of hard work (more than most people realize), but if you put in the effort to do it well, you can make it into a successful vocation.

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Leah Albert

Leah has spent the last seven years working at four different game stores, from small shops to one of the largest in the United States, from a franchise to a store she started from scratch. She's played Magic (kitchen-table Vorthos/Mel/Johnny) since 1995, when her older brother taught her at the tender age of eight. She also enjoys playing Overwatch (Mercy main), making digital art and crafting cosplays.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Retail, Shop Owners, Strategy1 Comment on Insider: Opening a Game Store – Getting Started

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Daily Stock Watch: Goblin Lore

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Hello, everyone and welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Modern has arguably been the cash cow of spec lovers and returning players (who've kept their old cards) alike, and this has continued to be the trend today. Our card for the day came out of old shoe boxes from all over the world as the demand for it has skyrocketed, and there are no signs that it will go back to earth soon. It just reached its all-time high today of $6.72, and that price is something that's really good for an unheralded uncommon.

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Burning Inquiry is a very good card to begin with, but it also gives your opponent a chance to sweeten their hand with the help of luck. Cathartic Reunion puts you in a horrible position if an opponent has counter magic, and Tormenting Voice is just a lesser evil in that regard. The demand for a deeper pool of cards to draw and discard made Goblin Lore a very strong option in a deck that has gained a lot of steam lately due to its MTGO exposure late last year in this Hollow One deck.

BR Hollow One

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
3 Flamewake Phoenix
4 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Street Wraith

Other Spells

4 Burning Inquiry
1 Call to the Netherworld
1 Cathartic Reunion
3 Edge of Autumn
4 Faithless Looting
2 Goblin Lore
4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

2 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Big Game Hunter
2 Blood Moon
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Fatal Push
1 Lightning Axe
3 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Thoughtseize

This deck didn't initially have Goblin Lore in its deck construction, but its addition allowed the Hollow One players to discard more cards on turn two that makes Hollow One free to cast, and made Gurmag Angler a consistent threat by turn three. Although the card makes you discard at random, this gives you a pseudo-draw four effect as it also helps you bury your Bloodghasts and Flamewake Phoenix for re-animation at any point of the game.

Late and New Bloomers

One half of these two pairs have become money cards after breaking out of their shells to become strong combo pieces in different decks and formats. Goblin Lore isn't really one that stands out in price due to this factor, but it also has something to do with the number of supplies that's out there. Prior to the rise of the Hollow One deck's popularity, the Utility Checker states that Goblin Lore was nowhere to be seen in competitive decks' lists in Modern and Legacy. I'm not really sure how the BR Hollow One deck will fare in the Pro Tour (if anyone would even dare bring it there), but a strong showing in the event could solidify the price of this card in the near future.

I've checked online, and a buyout of the remaining pieces of Goblin Lore didn't help the case of those who wanted to try it out. It was sitting at somewhere around $2-$3 at Star City Games, TCGPlayer, Card Kingdom, and Channel Fireball prior to the buyout, so don't expect to find them there anytime soon. Your best bet right now would be to scan old bulk bins in your local LGS, or try to find people who have kept their old cards from 10th Edition. Not everyone should be aware of how much this card is now (based on my experience where I have acquired a few copies of this from a friend for free a few weeks ago) so use that to your advantage and make a profit out of it while it's hot. Keep an eye out for foil copies, too. They should be pretty popular right now.

And that’s it for the Wednesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: MTGO Market Report for January 24th, 2018

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of January 23, 2018. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although Hour of Devastation (HOU), Amonkhet (AKH), Aether Revolt (AER), and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

 

Standard

Rivals of Ixalan (RIX) made its first appearance on the prices table, and one week of drafting has dropped MTGO prices by over 50 percent. Ixalan (XLN) is also dropping as drafters work on cracking the new Limited format and open a ton of product in the process. Otherwise, Standard prices are on fire this week, rising by up to 45 percent for a set of Aether Revolt (AER). Last week's bans in Standard have had the desired effect of stimulating interest, and brewers are having a field day in trying to figure out what is good in the new format.

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If you've managed to catch the wave and are holding cards like Chandra, Torch of Defiance, Heart of Kiran, Hazoret the fervent, and The Scarab God, it's a great time to be a seller. Interest is high at the moment, and it's easy to liquidate a ton of cards at good prices. But don't be fooled into thinking this will continue. It's possible that Standard prices reach new all-time highs, but I think the next month or two is set up for declining prices as the metagame settles down and the focus shifts to Modern.

In terms of speculating on the buy side in Standard, XLN and RIX are the next two targets for full set purchases. XLN is getting close to my buy range of 55 to 60 tix, and I will start nibbling on this one soon if prices drift down below 60 tix. RIX looks like excellent value at the moment for redeemers, with TCGplayer mid prices nearly four times the MTGO price. But with months of drafting yet to come, the price on MTGO will still have a strong downward bias, so I am not getting tix ready to buy sets of RIX just yet. Buying into RIX in March makes much more sense, so hold your tix until then.

As discussed before, my strategy on full sets is to buy complete sets near the end of their draft window while they are still available for redemption. Prices are a function of demand and supply, so peak supply of a given set is while it is still being drafted. On the demand side of things, the end of redemption encourages people to redeem their sets, pushing a short burst of demand. The end of a drafting window also signals the approach of the newest set, which also triggers interest in Standard and fresh demand from brewers.

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Capturing the value from the shift in supply and demand is the key to the strategy, but the whole thing wouldn't work without redemption. Redemption underpins the value of the set and by purchasing the whole set, you get to reduce your single-card risk by diversifying across all the cards in the set. The pool of value you are purchasing will be maintained even if there are fluctuations in the prices of individual cards. Diversification is a key aspect in the regular investing world, and it makes life a lot simpler for MTGO speculation as well.

Typically, I am looking for returns on full-set specs of 20 percent. Every now and then you get a much bigger return, which was the case for Hour of Devastation (HOU) due to The Scarab God. That card's increase helped full HOU sets returned fifty percent in a little under two months

Modern

With Standard attracting all the attention the past two weeks, Modern has taken a back seat and prices have drifted lower. Liliana of the Veil has dipped to a three-year low despite being a flagship card. Check out the price chart below, courtesy of GoatBots.

With Treasure Chests bringing in a constant trickle of supply, it only takes a downturn in the metagame for a card like Liliana to plumb new depths. If you are holding this one, like I am, look for the Modern Pro Tour in two weekends to reignite interest in the format and to give prices a boost. Liliana will need some more help to get back to 60 tix, though, either through a strong showing in the top 8 or a shift in the metagame.

Otherwise, I am preparing to exit almost all Modern positions over the next six weeks. I've been selling off some positions and reducing others into price strength, but the time has come to take a close look at all remaining Modern positions with the Pro Tour almost here.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. This week I have been deploying tix into RIX foil mythic rares. To start, I have bought a complete playset, four foil copies of each of the thirteen mythic rares. I've also bought  another four copies of each, excluding Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca and Rekindling Phoenix.

I want some exposure to each of the mythic rares in case something crazy happens and the price of one of them jumps up over 40 tix. Buying complete playsets keeps this possibility in place. But my research into maximizing returns on foil mythic rares suggests it's better to avoid already-expensive cards in favor of the cheaper ones. There's going to be some losers among them all, but the winners will outweigh them. Diversifying and buying the full variety basket of mythic rares is a key part of this strategy.

I'll be on the lookout for more opportunities to buy RIX foil mythic rares at a good price, but there's no rush at the moment. Prices are looking a little stretched at the moment, perhaps as a result of more readers pursuing this strategy. A potential return of 20 percent or more is something to shoot for, but at current prices, potential returns look to be ten percent or less, suggesting it's a good time to take a step back and wait for a better opportunity.

Bloodbraid Month, Pt. 4: Quantitative Data

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Alright, time for the big reveal. With comment section chatter over possible unbannings increasing, it's time for the hard data to make its own argument. I had less fun with this test than with previous efforts, mostly because I have a long and difficult history with Bloodbraid Elf. That said, the testing was comparatively easy and painless. The combination of straightforward play and considerable experience paid off with this test.

In this series, I take a card from the Modern Banned and Restricted List and test it against a gauntlet of current Tier 1 decks. I am trying to evaluate its power in the current field and determine if it is plausible to unban. So far I've tested Stoneforge Mystic, Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and Preordain. Now it's time for Bloodbraid Elf. I've been discussing its history, how it would fit into current decks, and finally the intangibles of playing the card. Today we'll see the hard test data.

An All-Encompassing Disclaimer

These are the results from my experiment. It is entirely possible that repetition will yield different results. This project models the effect that the banned card would have on the metagame as it stood when the experiment began. This result does not seek to be definitive, but rather to provide a starting point for discussions on whether the card should actually be banned.

Methodology

This test consists of 500 total matches: 250 with the control Jund list, and 250 with the test deck, Bloody Jund. This is so I get 100 matches in against each test deck, or a nice, round number (n) for my analysis. Play/draw alternates, as does which deck is played. The first match with the control list is followed by the the first match with the test deck. The purpose is to mitigate the effect increasing experience and familiarity play on the match results. Sideboarding strategy is decided before testing begins and never changes, even when it is determined to be wrong. Otherwise, the results would be invalid. We also behaved like we didn't know what the matchup was game one.

Testing was done primarily over Skype with paper cards. We don't use MTGO because timing-out and misclicking can ruin the data. Accuracy is more important than win percentage. Also, Skype and proxies are free, while buying a deck for testing purposes on MTGO isn't. We previously used free simulation programs, but they proved too time-consuming for my team's tastes. When everything is manual, the clicks needed to play become maddening.

Note on Significance

When I refer to statistical significance, I really mean probability. Specifically, the probability that the differences between a set of results are the result of the trial and not normal variance. Statistical tests are used to evaluate whether normal variance is behind the result, or if the experiment caused a noticeable change in result. This is expressed in confidence intervals determined by the p-value from the statistical test. In other words, statistical testing determines how confident researchers are that their results came from the test and not from chance.

If a test yields p > .1, the test is not significant, as we are less than 90% certain that the result isn't variance. If p < .1, then the result is significant at the 90% level. This is considered weakly significant and insufficiently conclusive by most academic standards; however, it can be acceptable when the n-value of the data set is low. While you can get significant results with as few as 30 entries, it takes huge disparities to produce significant results, so sometimes 90% confidence is all that is achievable. p < .05 is the 95% confidence interval, and is considered a significant result. The data is almost certainly the result of the experiment. Should p < .01, the result is significant at the 99% interval, which is as close to certainty as you can get. When looking at the results, just look at the p-value to see if the data is significant.

Data

Alright, enough waiting. First, I will report the overall win percentages. Then I will post the results of the z-test to show whether the result is significant. I use the z-test because it's the more common test. I do other tests to confirm my result, but I won't report them. I'll finish this section off with some interesting statistics I kept during the test.

  • Total wins - 269
  • Total win % - 53.8%
  • Total control wins - 122
  • Control win % - 48.8%
  • Total test wins - 147
  • Test win % - 58.8%

Overall, Jund had a favorable record against my gauntlet. The control deck was just under 50% against the field, while Bloody Jund shot up to ~60%. That is quite the result and the z-test result should not be surprising.

As you can see, this result is significant at the 95% level, and very nearly at 99%. Including Bloodbraid Elf strongly affected the match results. This was not surprising to me, as I remember just how powerful the card has always been. Some other interesting results from the test:

  • Average cascade length - 2.31 cards
  • Longest cascade - 8 cards (all lands)
  • Average cascade hit's mana cost - 2.72
  • Times cascading past other Bloodbraids - 98 (once past all three!)
  • Average turn playing first Bloodbraid - 4.98
  • Times losing to Blood Moon - 15

Anyway, enough justifying my obsessive note-taking; time to actually make sense of the results. This necessitates breaking the total data down by gauntlet deck, but I must restate that the n of these tests is small in comparison. The threshold for significance is much higher.

Quick aside: the metagame today looks a lot like the metagame back in 2012. Tron, Affinity, UWx Control, Storm, and creature toolbox (then Birthing Pod, now Collected Company) are all top decks. No, it's not exactly the same as the last time Bloodbraid was loose, and Jund is not the same powerhouse either. However, it does indicate that the conditions that let Jund thrive back then are still present now, and leads me to speculate about history repeating itself.

Affinity

The classic matchup of two old rivals. In some senses, Jund and Affinity are Modern. If you don't know how this matchup normally works it's a removal heavy deck against a small creature deck. Jund wins through superior attrition while Affinity wins either through blitzkrieg or Etched Champion.

  • Control Deck wins - 28, 56%
  • Test Deck wins - 28, 56%

Dead even. Let's check out my numbers anyway.

Absolutley not significant. The matchup is determined by factors not related to Bloodbraid Elf. Specifically, whether Jund clunks out and doesn't kill enough robots to stifle Affinity. The deck is so fast that hand disruption is minimally effective, and if Affinity can stick Etched Champion with any kind of power boost (and maintain protection from colors), they're in for an easy game. Otherwise it's a Jund-favoring slog through removal. Extra card advantage and tempo on turn four don't dramatically alter the odds of either scenario.

Sideboarding

Normal Jund:

-1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
-3 Thoughtseize
-1 Liliana of the Veil

+2 Ancient Grudge
+2 Kitchen Finks
+1 Damnation

Bloody Jund:

-1 Liliana of the Veil
-4 Thoughtseize

+2 Ancient Grudge
+2 Kitchen Finks
+1 Anger of the Gods

Affinity:

-4 Galvanic Blast

+2 Blood Moon
+1 Bitterblossom
+1 Rest in Peace

GB Tron

And now for the traditional predator to Jund. Gx Tron has always been a hard matchup for Jund, which struggles to keep pace. Thoughtseize is critical so you don't just lose to Tron's bombs, but they always have more, and it's hard to profitably interact. The GB version is said to be better than GR because of Collective Brutality, but I have no opinion.

  • Control Deck wins - 19, 38%
  • Test Deck wins - 26, 52%

That's a very large spike. The additional maindeck Thoughtseize was a factor, but not only incrementally. It's arguably the best maindeck card in the matchup, but there's only one more copy so the benefit is small. There's more to this.

The result is significant at the 90% level but not at 95%. There's that problem of the small n, as previously mentioned. I would say that these results are probably significant, contingent on additional study.

Bloody Jund had the same problems as Jund against Tron: it just doesn't measure up in raw power or speed. However, Bloodbraid allowed Jund to make up for that with card advantage and tempo. Even when Jund was behind, playing two spells made catch-up significantly easier. Tron has also cut down on Wurmcoil Engine, and that card was Jund's worst nightmare. Not a lot killed the initial Wurm, and then you had to expend additional resources to kill the tokens.

Sideboarding

Normal Jund:

-1 Liliana, the Last Hope
-2 Abrupt Decay
-3 Fatal Push

+1 Liliana of the Veil
+2 Surgical Extraction
+3 Fulminator Mage

Bloody Jund:

-2 Abrupt Decay
-2 Fatal Push
-1 Lightning Bolt

+2 Surgical Extraction
+3 Fulminator Mage

GB Tron:

None

Gifts Storm

This matchup is about Jund's clock. You can have all the disruption in the world (and Jund does), but if you don't end the game, Storm will eventually find Past in Flames and enough mana to win.

  • Control Deck wins - 26, 52%
  • Test Deck wins - 30, 60%
  • Turn three Storm wins - 5 (3 against control, 2 against test)

That is an interesting jump, but it is not going to be significant. This doesn't surprise me, there is a lot of variance associated with Storm. For example, I lost once to a turn two Blood Moon as the control deck and three times with the test deck. That's just Storm variance and Bloodbraid Elf or my play had little effect.

As I said, not a significant result. There was so much going on with Storm that I never felt that my own play mattered as much. As long as I had some kind of clock and had disruption, I'd done all I could.

Sideboarding

Normal Jund:

-2Terminate
-2 Fatal Push
-1 Liliana, the Last Hope

+2 Collected Brutality
+2 Grafdigger's Cage
+1 Liliana of the Veil

Bloody Jund:

-2 Terminate
-2 Fatal Push

+2 Collected Brutality
+2 Grafdigger's Cage

Gifts Storm:

-3 Remand
-1 Noxious Revival
-1 Gifts Ungiven

+3 Blood Moon
+1 Echoing Truth
+1 Pieces of the Puzzle

Additional Notes

The Jund sideboarding guide said to do things this way. I asked about the Surgical Extractions and was told no. Apparently, Grafdigger's Cage and Scavenging Ooze are enough. You're free to disagree, but given Storm's sideboarding toward Blood Moon and away from the graveyard, I see the point.

Grixis Shadow

The deck that eventually supplanted traditional Jund. I thought this would be a worse matchup than it proved to be, all things considered. Jund has a higher density of relevant cards while Grixis has larger threats and more ways to find them.

  • Control Deck wins - 24, 48%
  • Test Deck wins - 30, 60%

This is almost a significant result. The decks are far more evenly matched than anyone figured. This indicates to me the preference for Grixis over Jund comes from other matchups rather than any advantage over the deck.

The matchup was a weird kind of attrition: the most important spells are the discard and kill spells, which are nearly identical across decks. The blue cantrips made it more likely Grixis would see them, but that deck also had a harder time getting out threats. I also think that I played this matchup wrong, as it became clear during testing that Jund did better when it went wide around the bigger Grixis threats, making patience critical for Bloody Jund. I should have been sideboarding to take advantage of this revelation, but it was too late.

Sideboarding

Normal Jund:

-1 Fatal Push
-2 Lightning Bolt
-2 Abrupt Decay

+1 Damnation
+2 Surgical Extraction
+2 Kitchen Finks

Bloody Jund:

-3 Lightning Bolt
-2 Abrupt Decay

+1 Terminate
+2 Surgical Extraction
+2 Kitchen Finks

Grixis Death's Shadow

-2 Stubborn Denial

+1 Liliana, the Last Hope
+1 Kolaghan's Command

Jeskai Tempo

It's rather fortuitous that I'm doing the gauntlet alphabetically, as it lets me save the most interesting result for last. Jeskai Tempo has arguably been the best deck over the past few months even if it's slipping in our rankings. Its combination of removal and hard-to-fight threats is remarkably Jund-like, and I think it even plays like Jund.

  • Control Deck wins - 25, 50%
  • Test Deck wins - 33, 66%

That is a very large jump. The decks are fighting a war of attrition where tempo is a factor, or just the kind of fight that Bloodbraid Elf wins. The Elf substantially impacted the matchup.

This result is significant at the 90% level and very nearly at 95%. One more win or a control loss was needed. I would say again that this individual result is probably significant, with a high likelihood of confirmation.

Bloodbraid Elf let Jund really break things open in this matchup. Jeskai is all about incremental advantage, which is why Dark Confidant is so important to the matchup if Jeskai doesn't have a way to kill it. Bloodbraid accomplished the same job, but immediately, and with a tempo boost to boot. Jeskai tempo doesn't have a similar gamebreaker, and so fell behind against Bloody Jund far more often than the normal version. This isn't surprising: this is why Jund killed traditional control when it had Bloodbraid previously. This result was just a confirmation.

Sideboarding

Normal Jund:

-3 Fatal Push
-2 Abrupt Decay
-2 Tarmogoyf

+3 Fulminator Mage
+2 Surgical Extraction
+2 Kitchen Finks

Bloody Jund:

-2Fatal Push
-2 Abrupt Decay
-2 Tarmogoyf

+2 Fulminator Mage
+2 Surgical Extraction
+2 Kitchen Finks

Jeskai Control:

-2 Geist of Saint Traft
-2 Electrolyze
-2 Logic Knot

+2 Relic of Progenitus
+2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
+1 Celestial Purge
+1 Vendilion Clique

Additional Notes

Not having mirror breakers like Ancestral Vision really hurt Jeskai.

What Does It Mean?

Jund was overall improved by the inclusion of Bloodbraid Elf, to the great surprise of nobody on my team. The most significant results were against Tron and Jeskai, respectively the worst matchup and a very even one. What this says about Bloodbraid Elf in the Modern metagame is the subject of next week's article. See you then!

Insider: QS Cast: QS Flash Cast #2

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Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz, and Tarkan come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • QS Writer, Pete Casella joins for a QS Flash Cast!
  • Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan
  • Rivals of Ixalan Standard

Cards we discussed:

Enjoy!

Find us on Twitter:  @dapacman @the_tark

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Insider: Know the Utility of Your Collection

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Each week I discuss an array of cards, sharing their price charts as an indication that they are increasing or decreasing in value. Readers internalize the information and use the numbers shown to make investment decisions of their own. It’s a well-oiled machine.

But this numbers-based analysis, while factually precise, misses an important factor: non-monetary utility. In other words, a card has “value” to an individual that goes beyond a number displayed on MTG Stocks. Is the card in a deck? Is it part of a collection? Does it represent some nostalgia experienced from childhood? Each of these “uses” builds upon a card’s value and should be quantified accordingly. When people fail to take those uses into account, it creates the perception that irrationality is driving the Magic market.

However, at the end of the day, these non-monetary utilities equate to a number. If nothing else, it should be driven by opportunity cost—your cards offer a utility that has value, which needs to be compared against other potential assets that have their own separate utility.

That’s what I’m going to chase after this week—it may be far from perfect, but hopefully the thought process alerts readers to the fact that cards have monetary and non-monetary value, and these need to be summed somehow in order to drive fully rational decisions.

Cards in Decks

Once upon a time I played Legacy at my local game shop every Sunday afternoon. I long for these “good old days,” back when Legacy was in its explosive growth period and the format was wide open and exhilarating to learn. Cards in my Legacy collection had different value to me then than they do now. I wouldn’t even think about selling my Force of Wills or Wastelands; they were critical components of my deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Force of Will

But rather than deciding these Legacy cards were not for sale and essentially applying an infinite value upon them, I maintained a pragmatic view of the value of my collection. I didn’t check buylists every day and I certainly wasn’t tracking the value of my collection too closely. But every once in a while, I would discover a price increase on one of my Legacy cards; I knew interest in the format was exploding. Then gradually over time, the utility I gained from owning these Legacy cards started to diminish.

I had gone from playing Legacy every week (and winning store credit a fair amount of the time) to playing the beloved format just once or twice a year. At the same time, values on Legacy staples had skyrocketed. Recognizing that my collection had grown in value, I made the decision that these cards would do me better if converted into cash than as game pieces I could use only sporadically. I sold out.

I share this anecdote because I think we need to maintain some level of awareness of the value we store in decks. For most of my Magic career (and even now, to an extent) I consider cards in my decks as “not for sale.” Why sell a card I’m using, right? But we need to focus on two things when making such a sweeping statement: how often we use the card and how much utility we get from using it.

If you’re playing frequently and you’re getting significant enjoyment out of playing, then it stands to reason you will value cards in your decks far higher than their market price. But even frequently played cards should still have an exit value. Minimally you should be willing to sell any card out of your deck that you could re-acquire for less money. But even beyond this, we need to accept that these game pieces don’t have infinite value to us no matter how much we like to believe this.

Remember: cards have real cash values to them. At some point, a card may become more valuable than the utility it provides even in decks. If you’re playing a deck infrequently and are mostly playing for fun, rarely cashing out at events, then the cash value of your cards need to be a considerable factor. After all, you can always swap out those cards with something else. This may be suboptimal, but if you’re not playing to win anyway, it may not make as much difference.  Especially cards with near-functional replacements.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Timetwister

Your cards have opportunity cost, and you need to consciously be weighing the utility of your deck against utility of something else you could be doing with the money. This is what happened to me with Legacy: I recognized the value of my collection should be converted into cash because I could put those resources to work elsewhere and gain more value than the fun I had playing those particular cards.

And if you play in tournaments competitively with the intent of winning, then this discussion becomes even easier. You need to estimate your expected tournament winnings based on past performance, and add that value to the inherent cost of your deck. If at some point you can sell your deck and make a return on your investment that exceeds your estimated tournament winnings, then this is something you should do.

This is especially critical for formats where cards are frequently reprinted. We become blinded by winning cash at a tournament, while neglecting the fact that our deck’s value could be cut in half and wipe out those gains thanks to some poorly timed reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Damnation

Bottom line: cards in decks are fun game pieces, it’s true. But they have cash value too and we should not ignore this just because they’re sitting inside a deck box rather than a trade binder.

Cards in Collections

Things become a lot more emotional when collections are involved. I’m a bit of a completist myself, which is why I ultimately finished my set of 55 Legends legends—the multi-colored creatures. Now as I watch buylists on these cards hit all-time highs, I don’t feel even remotely tempted to cash out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Angus Mackenzie

This must be how some diehard collectors feel about a large portion of their collection. If everything is critically included in the collection, then no price would be tempting. I would encourage even the most dedicated of collectors to remember the value of their collection and the associated opportunity costs.

For example, I may be trying to obtain key Alpha cards for my mono-black all Alpha Plague Rats deck. I would love to add a Mind Twist, Demonic Tutor, and Chaos Orb to the list. But these cards in Alpha are particularly expensive (at retail these are $600, $500, and $1200 respectively for NM). Not only that, they’re also becoming increasingly difficult to find on the market altogether!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chaos Orb

So now here I am with a cherished collection of Legends creatures gradually climbing in value. At some point, is it better for me to cash out of that collection to pick up some key Alpha cards for my deck? Maybe. That depends on what I find more important in my collection. My point is, having a collection is fun but I need to understand that holding such a collection “sacred” and never selling it could be shutting me out from other acquisitions.

Now with Legends cards, many of which are on the Reserved List, I really have no qualms with holding for a long period of time. But if you had collected reprintable cards, then the decision becomes much more important.

Maybe having one of each Commander deck that Wizards printed isn’t as important as some other card you have been wanting for a while? Don’t forget to look beyond Magic too—many cards have become valuable enough to be worth real money. Home repairs, student loan payments, or family vacations: they all take money, and they all could be more important to you than a portion of your Magic collection.

Wrapping It Up

I am under the impression that a sizable portion of the MTG finance community is solely focused on buying. That is, they are keen to watch prices of cards because they want to make their purchases before prices go higher. But I would argue an equal amount of attention needs to go towards the sell side of the equation.

Some will hide behind the fact that they use their cards in decks, or that cards make up a crucial part of their collection. I’m not arguing with this point, nor do I disagree that they have utility beyond just their value on the market. What I’m emphasizing this week is the importance of recognizing that your cards all have value, and that value can be translated into cash. This is cash that can be used for an infinite number of other purposes, and some of those purposes just may offer higher utility.

In the case of having cards in decks, keep in mind how often you play both casually and competitively. If you find yourself playing cards strictly for fun, consider if the fun you’re getting out of a card merits sitting on it vs. putting that money elsewhere. If you’re playing competitively with the hope of winning tournaments, make sure you consider all costs associated with playing on that level (travel, entry fees, risks to reprints) and weigh those against the winnings you’ve accrued. You may find yourself “robbing Peter to pay Paul.” That is, you may be losing more money in these hidden costs than you’re actually gaining from maintaining tournament decks.

Lastly, for those of you sitting on more sizable/valuable collections, you must consider what you are sacrificing to maintain these collections. In an extreme example, owning a set of Power 9 while carrying credit card debt is a fool’s errand. There’s no way Power 9 will grow in value at the same rate as a credit card rate. And even if it did, you may be putting yourself at risk of financial ruin should something happen to you while nine pieces of cardboard rot in your collection waiting to be played in some once-annual Vintage tournament. These are real tradeoffs you’re making, and you need to be conscious of them.

And while Power is an extreme example, there are so many collectible or EDH cards worth a ton that perhaps merit selling for other uses. Gaea's Cradle, Imperial Seal, Ravages of War, Library of Alexandria, and Masterpieces are all examples of cards worth a great deal that may not be giving you the utility you deserve.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Imperial Seal

And while some of these cards are on the Reserved List and can double as investments, make sure you consider those opportunity costs when deciding to hold. Everything has been trending favorably now, but Magic cards may not climb in value forever. Even Reserved List stuff. Anything can happen in this unregulated market, and being conscious of your collection’s utility will ensure you don’t have regrets should anything happen to the game.

…

Sigbits

  • While Star City Games has a price tag of $1200 on Alpha Chaos Orb now, they don’t have any in stock even if you wanted one. Actually, they don’t have any copies from any printings at all in stock. That includes CE and IE copies. At $500, the Unlimited printing of the card is now on par with Dual Lands from that set—a testament to the popularity of the only format that allows Chaos Orb, Old School.
  • I’m kind of disappointed in Star City’s stock on older cards recently. They seem sold out of nearly all relevant Alpha, Beta, Arabian Nights, Legends, and Antiquities cards. It seems their buylist has really lagged competitors recently. So when I look at something like Tawnos's Coffin sold out at $80, I know this is meaningless because it’s too close to Card Kingdom’s buy price of $60. But when SCG will restock these cards is a mystery. Perhaps they’ve given up on these classic cards altogether?
  • Here’s a more recent card that is also sold out at Star City Games: Mox Opal. No Scars of Mirrodin copies, no Modern Masters 2015 copies, and no Masterpiece copies with prices of $80, $80, and $200 respectively. This is a pretty substantial price for a Modern card that has been reprinted and can be reprinted again. Prospects would be good for a price increase if Masters 25 wasn’t right around the corner. Let’s wait and see what’s reprinted in that set and then revisit some of these Modern/Legacy staples.

Daily Stock Watch: Collective Brutality

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Hello again, everyone and welcome back to a new week of the Daily Stock Watch! The world is still trying to adjust to the most recent banning that happened in Standard, and we still have no idea if there will be any changes in Modern after Pro Tours Rivals of Ixalan. Some pros and finance junkies alike have already guessed that WotC won't shake up the world of Modern until after the PT, and that's just what happened last weekend.

In the aftermath of these changes, I'd like to focus more on Modern staples that could be in for a major price dip or spike after the much-awaited PT of the year. Today, we'll talk about a card that is seeing a lot of exposure across many formats and will rightfully continue to do so in the coming years.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Collective Brutality

This gem from Eldritch Moon just reached its all-time high of $13.05 today, and I don't expect it to slow down anytime soon. This set wasn't really able to produce good cards, as only mythics like Emrakul, the Promised End and Liliana, the Last Hope, and another Modern star in Spell Queller served as the money cards of the set along with Collective Brutality. I don't have enough data to support this claim, but it should be one of the less opened sets in recent Standard memory due to the lack of demand from the cards outside these four cards I mentioned. This notion, along with the fact that there is a high demand for Collective Brutality, will contribute to the continue in the rise of this card's price.

At least 15 competitive decks in Legacy and Modern use a copy of Collective Brutality, and new archetypes that will emerge in the future will continue to add this to their arsenal whenever it's possible. It disrupts your opponent's hand, kills a weenie-sized creature, helps you to win some close games with a pseudo-lifesteal effect, and enables you to set up a board position that favors discarding cards. The way that I see it, it's a two-mana Cryptic Command-like kind of card that is almost always relevant at any point in the game. Just how good is this card? Check out this Modern BR Reanimator list that runs a full playset of it en route to victory.

BR Legacy Reanimator

Creatures

1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Tidespout Tyrant
4 Chancellor of the Annex
4 Griselbrand

Other Spells

4 Dark Ritual
4 Reanimate
4 Thoughtseize
4 Faithless Looting
4 Exhume
4 Collective Brutality
4 Animate Dead
1 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
2 Swamp
2 Badlands
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Bayou

Sideboard

4 Pack Rat
1 Grave Titan
3 Duress
2 Carpet of Flowers
2 Blood Moon
1 Archetype of Endurance
2 Abrupt Decay

A card has to be very good for it to see heavy play in Legacy, and the Utility Checker states that 3.5% of winning Legacy decks last year have utilized 2.5 copies of Collective Brutality in their main decks. In Modern, 11% of these decks used an average 1.7 copies of the card, and it could definitely do better this year as more decks try to incorporate this into their lists.

The Best of Modern Sorceries

These cards will stay good all throughout the year, and I only expect Thoughtseize to outperform Collective Brutality in the utility department. At this rate, it should only be a matter of time before this card reaches the $20 barrier. It would be best to get copies while it's still at a reasonable price.

Right now, Star City Games and Channel Fireball are both out of stock for normal copies, while only a handful are left via TCGPlayer and Card Kingdom for $12.48 up to $14.99. Foil copies could be obtained for $33-$40, and it might actually be a good idea to pick them up in the lower $30's or for less, if that's possible. I strongly recommend that you trade in for this card while it's still peaking. The realization of how good it really is might just occur to everyone after the Pro Tour. Let's try to stay ahead while we can.

And that’s it for the Monday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as we check out a new card that should be on the go, or good enough for speculating. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: Standard after the Bannings

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Hey, guys.

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the potentials in Standard, but that was before I realized last week that certain Energy-related cards might get banned. You guys should by now about the latest changes to the banned list in Standard:

These bannings are pretty straightforward, targeting both Energy variants and Ramunap Red. The banning of [card]Attune with Aether[card] denies Energy its ability to fix its mana and removes the luxury to easily including a fourth color in the 75.

Let's first look at some top performing singles last week:

Previously, I talked about the potential for a Big Red appearance in Standard, with Rekindling Phoenix and Glorybringer in the deck. I've also talked about how good Phoenix can be in Standard, and now that the aggressive version of the red deck is weakened, I think what I said is going to happen. However, I didn't have the chance to talk about buying in to Phoenix before it increased by about 10 tickets from the price when it first hits the shelves. I hope you guys managed to grab some copies by observing the price increase during the first two days of RIX. It's best to wait for now if you didn't, as this is unlikely to increase further.

Glint-Sleeve Siphoner was another card I mentioned previously. If you guys in at the low point back then (around 3 tickets), now is the window to sell them off for great profit! As Temur Energy was killed off, Black-Green Winding Constrictor is making a comeback, and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner is a must-have component in black midrange decks currently. No doubt, this price spike was in response to the ban announcement and is likely to reverse after everyone gets their copies of Siphoner. Remember the golden rule of investment – sell into the hype. Please do it right now and don't be greedy.

Rogue Refiner was banned because of how good it was to at generating an advantage for little cost. Now we have Jadelight Ranger to replace Refiner's spot in green decks. Since RIX's release, the price of this card went up quickly to 11 tickets. I think this card is going to be one of the staples in Standard for the entire time it's in the format. Should one buy the card at this high point, though? Well, if you play online competitively, yes, you should buy this card if you're planning to play green any time soon, especially black-green. If you just want to invest in this card, its not the right time now, as I don't think a rare can go up much further from 11 tickets. The price will likely stabilize after one or two weeks, and maybe you'll be able to pick up copies slightly cheaper then.

Cards I Am Buying This Week

Hazoret is the best god in its cycle. Now that both the top-performing decks (Temur Energy and Ramunap Red) are weakened, I think Hazoret is the best card in Standard now. I'm speculating that some kind of Mardu/Red-White/Red-Black Vehicles deck featuring Hazoret will appear in the metagame to beat the decks full of removal, like Grixis Midrange and Blue-Black Control. Hazoret hits pretty hard and is hard to deal with once it resolves, and is at a relative low point in its price history. Therefore, I suggest buying copies of this mythic for investment.

Once again, I want to suggest buying Ripjaw Raptor. I think in the new Standard environment, this card is now better than Bristling Hydra now that Energy with green will be less consistent. With it being harder to collect energy for the Hydra, I predict that players will prefer a bigger body and the ability to draw cards, instead of the ability to occasionally gain hexproof. I have been thinking of a scenario where Hydra will be better than Raptor, but it seems like most of the time the Raptor is just a better option. The Hydra needs at least two activations to survive the fight against Raptor, while the Raptor is going to gain a card for its owner regardless of the outcome of the combat.

I am buying in to a couple copies of Vraska, Relic Seeker, mainly because I think the tokens deck is going to be good again. Although not as strong as Eslpeth, Sun's Champion, Vraska is similarly able to win games by taking control of the board. After Temur Energy and Ramunap Red disappeared, midrange and control decks becomes the top decks of the moment. Thus, I think it's time to bring back the tokens, as they are troublesome for those decks. Vraska doesn't only go in the tokens deck, as the Black-Green Winding Constrictor deck is also playing Vraska in its 75. At 10-11 tickets, I think its fine to buy a playset or two of Vraska for investment.

Cards I Would Not Buy This Week

Kumena is the new addition to Merfolk tribe. Last week, I talked about its potential in Modern and its interaction with Collected Company. However, at nearly 20 tickets, I think the price is too high and is probably temporary. If I were to buy this card, I would wait until it drops to 5 tickets. From a competitive point of view, I think there are better decks than Blue-Green Merfolk in Standard – for example, Grixis Midrange and Esper Approach – so even as a player, I still don't think it's advisable to buy this card.

Chandra, Torch of Defiance has increased by 6 tickets since RIX's release. This is mainly because of the Black-Red Midrange variants that performed well after the bannings. However, I think that this card is overrated, as Big Red and Mardu Vehicles variants will be able to deal with Chandra easily. Or perhaps I should put it this way: Chandra can't do anything very effective against cards like Rekindling Pheonix, Hazoret, the Fervent or Heart of Kiran. Once players figure out the best builds for aggro decks, midrange decks won't be as good anymore. Thus, I suggest you guys steer away from investing in Chandra this week – unless you really need it for games outside of the Standard format.


Alright, that’s all for the week. Thank you all for reading, and I will see you guys again soon!

–Adrian, signing out

Insider: Investment Level Up – Cheap Mythics, Part I

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This week, we're going to take a bit of a deep dive into mythic rares. Specifically, we are going to look at mythics with converted mana costs three and below. This article will be a little heady, and a lot of data will be thrown at you, but I believe that you'll get a lot out of it. I'll be walking you through the data and will try to draw some conclusions from it. Standard is filled with these cheap mythics, and Rivals of Ixalan gave us three new ones, so there's no better time than the present to tackle this topic.

There are a few reasons for grouping these mythic cards by converted mana cost. The most important reason is that we want to identify patterns so that we can better predict any individual cases we come across. We think of lower converted mana cost cards differently than others because these can see a higher potential amount of play and be more core to the functionality of a Standard or Modern deck.

I've created a data sheet that shows how profitable investing in all mythics printed from Born of the Gods onward would have been. Click the spoiler below to see the whole table. I've collated the data in such a way that is friendly to investors – the low and high prices shown are those for which there was a wide enough investment window during which to buy or sell. The "release low" is the card's low price before the release of the next Standard-legal set. The "future low" is the low that the card reached subsequent to the release low. If a card's "high" and "future high" prices are different, that means that the card reached its absolute high prior to falling to the future low.

I added these variables to the graph in part because many often wonder whether they should invest in a card that was once incredibly vital to Standard and then gets booted from the metagame for various reasons. Sometimes these decisions are easy (Saheeli Rai), and sometimes they are hard (Nissa, Voice of Zendikar, Soulfire Grand Master).  In the notes section, I distinguish between a generally sustained season-long price increase ("elevated price") and short-term price spikes ("price spike"). All returns with "N/A" would have been bad investments.

Should I invest in mythic rares that are popular right out of the gate?

The last time we were faced with this sort of dilemma was with The Scarab God but, as the above chart indicates, we are presented with such a card with some regularity. If Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca maintains a price above 10.00 tix for the next few months, it too will present us with this dilemma. Past history tells us that these cards do, on average, prove to be good investments, even when made within a few months of their release.  The only one, in fact, that would have proven to be a bad investment was Heart of Kiran. The average rate of return for this class was 65 percent. Waiting, in some instances, proved financially advantageous, and in other cases disadvantageous. The average rate of return for buying in at a later date was slightly higher, clocking in at 70.9 percent.

I think there are two reasons why these cards prove to be safer investments than we'd normally expect. First is that a $10 card on MTGO has significant competitive demand and has proven more than capable of clearing the hurdle of Constructed playability. I am always a tad hesitant to invest in expensive cards because I am afraid of the potential fallout of a price crash, but the reality of the situation is that low CMC mythic rares that have proven to be major players in Standard are just unlikely to fall off the map. And when the infusion of supply comes to a halt after a new set is released, these cards tend to become more valuable.

The second reason is also a reason to invest mythic rares that seem powerful – Standard rotations and cards yet to be printed will affect future Standard environments, and that allows for different cards to shoot upwards during different seasons. When these $10 cards spike, they really do spike hard, and some of them like Monastery Mentor and Liliana, the Last Hope can command their elevated prices for significant periods of time. Usually there will be a future Standard environment that will spotlight the card in question more than the present one - like The Scarab God, usually it takes some time to figure out how best to use a card. All of this makes investing in these proven mythics safer than you would otherwise think, especially early on in their Standard life.

Of these $10 mythics from the past several years, it would have been advantageous to wait a while before investing in 3 of them (Brimaz, Mentor, and Nissa). By contrast, it would have been better to invest in three others on the list earlier – Liliana, the Last Hope, Deathmist Raptor, and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. The takeaway message from the data, in my view, is that if a mythic rare sees significant time north of $10 during the initial months of its release, we can expect it to spend some time north of $20 in the future. In general it is a safe conservative option to not wait to pull the trigger.

Should I invest in unproven mythics?

This is a question that will take some more time to answer, so I will be writing a Part II to this article for next week. Here I will discuss one distinct trend that I found when I was conducting the research for this article – mythics that dipped below $2 during their initial months of release rarely proved to be good investments. I was actually quite surprised by this finding, but here is the supporting data:

What a list! And I was being generous to count the recent price spike of Combat Celebrant! A few things interest me about this list. First is that, unlike mythics at a higher converted mana cost, these rarely fall to bulk. Glorious End and Combat Celebrant are the only two to ever fall well below $1 so quickly.  In my mind this means that speculators tend to pick these up and sit on them more readily than higher converted mana cost mythics, but the competitive market values them just the same as a bulk mythic, and these eventually slide slowly downward until rotation.

The investment track record of these cards is abysmal across the board.  The one exception – Saheeli Rai – only saw an elevated price because of the mistaken printing of Felidar Guardian. As we will see next week, unproven mythics that generate enough speculation interest to stabilize north of $2 during their first few months have a much better track record. These cards tend to have greater spike potential and have a significantly higher chance at clearing the hurdle of Standard playability. Unless you have a high degree of faith in a single one of these sorts of cards going forward, do not invest in this class of card. I suspect Azor's Gateway from Rivals of Ixalan will fall into this category and settle north of $1 over the next few months, and I think you should avoid it.

Signing Off

Next week I will conclude this topic, so please let me know your thoughts and questions down below! I will try to incorporate any questions you have into my next article. Also let me know how much you've liked drafting Rivals of Ixalan. I've had a rough go of it - the format feels oddly disjointed in that certain decks really prey upon other decks. Presented for your (morbid) viewing pleasure...

 

Insider: Rivals from the Commander Viewpoint

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Welcome back, readers!

In last week's article I looked at the eternal playability of cards from Rivals of Ixalan and alluded to this week's article being about Commander. While we rarely get any cards that dramatically shift eternal formats (Fatal Push was the latest), I honestly feel that Ixalan block has been mainly catered to Commander players (and/or casuals).

The most glaring example are the double-faced cards that flip into lands. We got a Gaea's Cradle with Growing Rites of Itlimoc, a Diamond Valley with Arguel's Blood Fast, a Lotus Vale with Dowsing Dagger, and a Kjeldoran Outpost with Legion's Landing. All of the cards these Ixalan ones are based off of are on the Reserved List, and some are exceedingly expensive.

These new options are fantastic budget options. It definitely seems like WotC realized they were a great "outside the box" way to print more of the effects players want without breaking the Reserved List. The flip cards aren't the only clearly Commander-aimed cards from the set but I wanted to simply highlight that the block as a whole is a goldmine for Commander and casual players.

Without further ado, let's look at our new toys.

Arch of Orazca

This card is currently sitting in the bulk rare category for a new set (i.e. cards under $0.50). It's a colorless land that enters the battlefield untapped, taps for mana, and turns into a card advantage engine when you have ascend, which shouldn't be that hard in Commander. Granted, five mana is a lot to pay for the ability, but the fact that it can go into any deck is huge.

Mikokoro, Center of the Sea is another land that allows every player to draw a card (although for the lower cost of two mana), and it's sitting at $15. So the question becomes whether it's worth three mana in Commander to make a Howling Mine effect into actual card advantage. I'd argue that it likely is. I like this card as a medium-term hold, especially since the price can't go much lower. I like trading for these at their current price, though I can see this falling down a bit more (likely to the $0.25 range) in which case I would be tempted to buy a few playsets to sit on.

Azor's Gateway

Last week I mentioned how this card had some potential in eternal formats, which more often than not means it'll be good in Commander too. This is definitely one of those "more often" times. In Commander powerful cards see play even if their mana cost is high, which means costs vary a good bit more than in eternal formats. So flipping Azor's Gateway becomes pretty easy.

Azor's Gateway provides colorless card filtering which, while not as good as straight-up card draw, is still a useful tool that some color combinations don't have. If you can flip it you get a ridiculously powerful land that taps for any color of mana you need. Mono-red decks finally get a massive mana land that they've been denied for so long (green gets Gaea's Cradle, white gets Serra's Sanctum, blue gets Tolarian Academy, black gets Cabal Coffers, red gets… Shivan Gorge??).

I also love how the amount of mana is tied to your life total, so decks that gain a lot of life can abuse it even more. Big life gain decks are definitely a favorite of casual players, adding to this card's appeal. This card has already dropped $1 in the last week and I imagine it'll continue to do so for awhile. I don't see it finding a home in standard (unless it does so in one of the Approach decks) as it's a bit too slow for standard, especially since more often than not you'd prefer to be exiling excess lands and not spells. I will definitely try to trade for these if/when they hit $3-$4 and I'd buy a playset if it hits $2.50 or less.

Azor, the Lawbringer

First we get his Gateway, then we get Azor himself. Azorius mages have had plenty of good commanders up to this point, but if you enjoy playing UW control style decks in Commander this seems like the new de facto commander of choice. Sphinx's Revelation ended up being a defining card in Standard for basically its entire lifespan, and now one can get it every single turn stapled to their commander.

Since Azor's ability triggers on his attack, if you go full-bore tapout you aren't leaving mana up for counterspells. I imagine the second most played card in any new Azor deck—after Sol Ring, of course—will be Sword of Feast and Famine, which conveniently allows you to untap all that mana you just spent to cast the cards you drew. Card number three on that list is probably the aforementioned Gateway above which plays exceedingly well with the lifegain you get from his ability. This card's demand will be almost exclusively Commander and his current price of $5 is way to high. I'll wait till it hits $2-$3 before picking one up for myself (and unless this guy is your commander I suggest moving any you have now).

Dire Fleet Daredevil

Red actually doesn't have a lot of cool ways to mess with opponents' graveyards, and instants and sorceries that are played in commander tend to be quite powerful, so having the ability to cast them off color can be really cool. The biggest problem I have with this guy is that plenty of commander decks don't play a lot of good instants or sorceries, and he relies completely on what your opponents are playing.

Still, he's a fun new addition for red and I know he'll find a home in plenty of Commander decks. His current price is heavily influenced by potential standard play and while I do think he's good, I don't think his price will stick. I'm a fan of moving these now.

Elenda, the Dusk Rose

Black-white token decks used to be more popular. Throughout Magic's history green has typically been the king of token generation, but black and white have been making solid strides on that front. I imagine Elenda will take the place of many Teysa, Orzhov Scion commanders, as she serves as a strong token generator and her tokens come with lifelink. Though I'd fully expect to see good ol' Teysa finding a home in those decks too. This is a tough one as I imagine some of the current price is tied to standard speculation and she's not a terrible option in standard (at the very least she replaces herself when she dies...assuming she isn't exiled). From a Commander standpoint I think that she will eventually drop though, so unless you are itching to play with her now I suggest holding off.

Etali, Primal Storm

We have our first of the Elder Dinosaurs, and the red one looks incredible. Commander is a format ripe with powerful spells—what's better than casting your opponents best spells for free? I know a lot of players in my area have posted requests for this card, and I imagine that we'll see a lot of new mono-red Commander decks thanks to this one.

If it proves to be popular, look towards cards that offer additional attack phases, similar to what happened with Narset, Enlightened Master. I imagine players will want a similar build as both provide the same kind of incentives. At it's current price of around $2.50 I think it'll drop a good bit. It's not a terrible option in a standard midrange deck, though it's biggest hinderance is that it does nothing the turn you play it (which is typically pretty key) and it fails the Chupacabra test (i.e. it dies to Ravenous Chupacabra at a net loss of mana (since it's 6 and he's 4) and with no gain to the caster)

Ghalta, Primal Hunger

Mono-green gets a commander option that they can power out extremely fast with the right style of build (it's possible to get it out as early as turn four). Ghalta fits nicely into a Selvala, Heart of the Wilds deck as a giant fatty one can cheat into play that then increases how much mana Selvala taps for. It's also important that it has trample, as this is definitely a commander that could kill players via commander damage very quickly. This one is a bit harder to evaluate; as there seems to be some strong standard potential with it, but it still is a regular rare that would only really go in a deck designed to play it quickly (i.e. it's not something you would just throw into any green deck) it's current price seems fine on that aspect, but it's important to keep in mind that there are a TON of them floating out there (thanks to being the special store promo) so the ceiling is pretty low on this card.

Hadana's Climb

This is one of the more disappointing flip lands in my opinion. It's clearly good in a UGx counters deck where you could flip it the turn you play it and even activate the land that same combat. But it feels like it's only good in that style of deck. This feels like the type of card that will bottom down to bulk rare (or bulkish rare). I advocate waiting to pick any up until that happens.

Journey to Eternity

After green-black got shafted with their spell land in Dark Ascension (Grim Backwoods) it's good to see WotC gave them a really good one this time around. GBx decks are often known for graveyard recursion, and a repeatable one on a land that also can tap for mana of any color is awesome.

The first ability seems relatively easy to trigger in Commander thanks to the plethora of sacrifice effects that are often played in these decks. The fact that you can likely play it, flip it, and activate it in the same turn means this is definitely an auto-include in those types of decks. This card has already slipped by $1 since i initially began writing this article. I really do love this card, but being 2 color really limits the number of decks it can go into. However, the power level is there and this honestly feels like one of those cards that could easily create some sort of G/B/x value type of deck in standard/modern. I don't mind it's current price of $4.

Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca

If you wanted to play a Merfolk-themed blue-green deck this seems like a great commander. Tishana, Voice of Thunder is probably best suited for a token or Elfball deck. Kumena, on the other hand, is really only strong with a heavily Merfolk-themed deck, which means that it'll be mainly blue. His abilities are quite strong and he's fantastic at generating advantage when a board stalls.

I will admit I haven't seen as many Merfolk-themed Commander decks, but perhaps this card will change that. After all, drawing cards and/or pumping the team are both powerful abilities. When I started writing this article this card was under $10. Now it's sitting at $16.50 thanks to standard. If you aren't playing it in standard, I'd move it now as we typically don't see many mythics above that range in standard and the ones that do are typically eternally playable like Chandra, Torch of Defiance.

Nezahal, Primal Tide

Nezahal is an interesting new Commander option. It comes with uncounterability, situational card draw, and self-protection, all things that blue mages like. Having a Reliquary Tower ability is definitely not something to sneeze at.

Ironically, Nezahal shines best against a control deck (as one would likely draw a lot of cards and the fact that Nezahal is uncounterable is most relevant). I see this one as a great inclusion in multi-color decks in the supporting role rather than as the commander. Currently this one is sitting at $1 and that seems perfectly reasonable. The biggest issue I see is that he fails the Chupacabra test pretty badly as well.

Path of Discovery

I'll admit I almost continued right on past this card until I realized that in token-style decks it can act like a powerful permanent anthem. If you make a bunch of tokens all at once and your top card is not a land, they basically can all get +1/+1. It can also help get you through land pockets or serve as a pseudo-scry if you need to dig for something specific.

Four mana is a bit much for something that does nothing until something else occurs, but it scales in power if you put a lot of creatures into play so it's worth considering. It's currently $1 and I can see it drifting down towards bulk rare status. Wait on picking any up.

Polyraptor

So besides the wombo-combo that this guy plays with Forerunner of the Empire, there are a lot of ways to inflict damage on one's own creatures. Cards like Pyrohemia spiked hard once people realized how stupid that card gets with Polyraptor. I definitely think we'll see players try to build Dinosaur-themed Commander decks. Thanks to the limited number of options this one is definitely going to find a home in them (that, and it can be very powerful). Currently it's sitting in the $4 range which seems reasonable for something that could define a deck...of course it could also be too slow to do anything and drop down to $2-$3, but I don't think it'll ever be a bulk mythic thanks to magic's history of pingers.

Profane Procession

I am a bit torn on this card. Commander is definitely a format in which one-for-one removal needs to be very powerful or very cheap. This card serves as repeated targeted creature removal and can turn said creatures against their owners which is pretty cool. My biggest beef is that the mana cost of the ability is high for exiling creatures, and the fact that once you do you can only return the creatures you've exiled. It's current price is around $1.25 and I can see it dropping to $0.75. I suggest waiting on it unless you'll get an extra $0.5 enjoyment out of owning it for a deck immediately.

If you can get a ton of mana to sink into it and exile a lot of creatures (stacking all the abilities at once) you could definitely turn it into a pretty solid engine. I don't like it as much as Journey to Eternity, but it's not a bad addition to black-white decks.

Silverclad Ferocidons

As I said earlier, I'm fairly confident we'll see players try to build Dinosaur Commander decks (likely in the Naya shard) and I also assume those decks will find ways to keep triggering enrage. Thanks to damage leaving the creature at end of turn, this could serve as a more powerful Smokestack if you can trigger it during each player's turn. It's near bulk status now...it'll hit bulk status later.

Slaughter the Strong

We got a three-mana wrath with a somewhat limited downside (opponents likely get to keep a creature or two, unless they are playing Fatties.dec). Commander is definitely a format with a lot of wraths, and white has plenty at the four slot that aren't situational (Wrath of God, Day of Judgment). But this is definitely near the top of playable wraths, and it seems phenomenal if you're playing a commander with four or less power that doesn't rely on other creatures. It's sitting around $1 now and that feels pretty fair. We typically don't see wrath effects drop to bulk but this could be a $0.5 card if it doesn't find a standard home.

Storm the Vault

I will be the first to admit that I love this card (the first competitive deck I ever built was Academy) and it's important to remember that Tolarian Academy is banned entirely in Commander. It's that good. Now, we're probably lucky this one is red-blue so it isn't just dumped into all the Esper artifact decks as an auto-include, however, we do have Breya, Etherium Shaper which is already a very powerful combo commander. I could also see this in any/all Grixis artifact decks. This card can be had for under $2 and I'm a big fan...in fact it's the ONLY card from the set that I have already purchased a playset of.

The Immortal Sun

This card seems like it was created solely for Commander players, specifically those who hate playing against decks filled with planeswalkers. The abilities on the card don't really appear to be aimed at any particular deck archetype, though they do all work together in harmony in a small creature-based deck. These types of cards are great long term holds (see Alhammeret's Archive), but drop quickly once supply hits the market. Sell now, and buy back when they are $2 or less.

Timestream Navigator

Taking extra turns is definitely a very powerful thing to do, especially in Commander. I appreciate how ascend makes this less likely to trigger super early in a game. It's also on a creature, and we've seen how powerful and expensive those can be (see Lighthouse Chronologist, which was basically a bulk rare when it first came out). This is a tough one as well. It either finds a standard home and jumps up in value or slowly decays in value down to the $2-$3 range. I'd rather hold off personally, but I wouldn't fault you if you were more optimistic than me.

Most people I've talked to about this card want to play it with clones, which seems like an awesome way to keep looping turns. So I expect we'll see this card show up in a good number of Commander decks with a lot of clones in them.

Twilight Prophet

This is the Dark Confidant variant Commander players have been waiting for. While he's a fantastic card advantage engine, Bob's big disadvantage in a format with a lot of high-CMC spells is that he can kill you pretty quickly. So now for twice as much mana we get to nug our opponents instead of ourselves, and gain life in the process (so I could see playing Bob with this guy side by side). This one does say "each opponent" so it's really powerful in any black commander deck (and Ascend is pretty easy to hit in commander). It's current price is heavily influenced by standard though. I'd prefer to wait to pick up my copy personally.

This is one of those cards that I expect all mono-black decks will want, much like auto-include Phyrexian Arena. Although it is kept in check by the fact that you need the city's blessing before this is anything more than a 2/4 flyer for four mana. (Fun fact: this is the only mono-black 2/4 flyer for four mana.)

Wayward Swordtooth

Playing extra lands is one of the most powerful abilities in Commander, and this card can come down before Oracle of Mul Daya. It isn't as powerful as Azusa, Lost but Seeking but it does provide a better body for the late game. It seems extremely good for setting up a quick Ghalta, Primal Hunger. This card continues to drop in price, but I actually think it could be one of the dark horses of the set and I"m a big fan if it hits $2.

Zacama, Primal Calamity

Zacama and Gishath will be vying for the commander slot in Naya Dinosaur decks, and I honestly don't know which is better now. Zacama's ETB ability that untaps your lands is extremely powerful, and since it triggers only on cast, it doesn't play that well with Gishath. Current price is almost all driven by commander demand so it'll drop as supply hits the market.

Still, it seems like one could easily abuse just that ability if you can keep casting Zacama over and over and generate infinite mana. The other abilities are cool, if much less broken—though I do like the repeatable Disenchant.

Zetalpa, Primal Dawn

The white Elder Dinosaur comes packed with a ton of white's best abilities. This seems like a really awesome voltron commander, as flying, double strike, and trample mean you can easily one-shot someone with this one. The only major abilities really missing here are lifelink and haste. This one will drop as well.

As it is, I think this is probably one of the best mono-white voltron commanders, though it's likely going to draw a big ol' bullseye on your head the turn you cast it.

Conclusion

So this article was a long one, thanks to WotC's printing of a plethora of great Commander cards in Rivals of Ixalan. I can't wait to add most of these to my decks (and probably make a Naya dino deck too). Do you think I missed anything? Feel free to comment below or reach out to me on Discord or in our forums.

Insider: Rivals of Ixalan Sleeper Picks

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We are finally rid of Energy (and Ramunap Red)! Plus Rivals of Ixalan is out. Woot!

All things considered this is all pretty big news for Standard. I've officially decided that I'm a big fan of the first three weeks of a new Standard format and then I slide into apathy. I've also decided that a lot of people tend to share a similar trajectory when it comes to Standard. All of the excitement, brewing, speculating, and good stuff happens in the first three weeks and then it gets boring and we all go back to playing Modern or Legacy.

It's week one and we're in love. There is palpable excitement to get ahold of those new cards and play with them. Anything can happen. Three weeks from now the flaws will appear. The cracks in the facade will show through. But, for now everybody is stoked.

For speculators it is important that people are stoked because it means they want to buy, sell, and trade cards because they have cards on the brain. We should use the opportunity to get some work done and build our collections.

Today, I'm going to talk about cards that I think are the best value in Rivals of Ixalan. These are the cards that I'm looking to pick up (or have already picked up) out of the gate.

One important thing to always keep in mind about a new release is that in week one 90% of the cards are priced at the highest price they will ever be. It's hard to pick winners out of the gate because the demand is high and thus the price is high. Honestly, the best thing you can do with the new singles you open is typically to trade away as many as possible for safer, more stable singles.

However, there are always exceptions to the rule. Today, I'm going to talk about the cards that I think have potential and/or are underpriced at the moment.

Mythics

As far as mythic rares were concerned, nothing was really calling to me. Most of the mythics felt like they were priced as though they had already hit and are destined to drop when they don't.

Of all the mythics the one that I thought had the most potential was Twilight Prophet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Twilight Prophet

It doesn't have a crazy price tag, which means it actually has the potential to go up or at least maintain value (more than can be said for most mythics on opening weekend). It could be a really nice Commander staple as it damages all opponents and there is the potential to manipulate the top card of your library.

In Standard, I think Twilight Prophet has potential as a finisher in a midrange or controlling deck that is going to make the game go long. 2/4 flying is decent at holding off attackers (especially in a deck that can play a lot of removal to take out larger threats). In the late game it draws cards, gains life, deals damage, and is evasive. It is a lot packed into a four-drop creature, but the key will be reaching ascend. I think getting the city's blessing is reasonably easy to do in Standard.

Of all the mythics, this was the one that most called out to me as a card that has been overlooked and undervalued. Onto the rares...

Rares

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crafty Cutpurse

Probably just a bulk rare. However, the card has some really neat applications especially in Commander or casual that could give it some added value. For one, it combos with the "hunted" cycle from Ravnica block.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hunted Horror

Obviously, this isn't going to be Constructed-worthy but not all value comes from Constructed. Somebody will steal a Marit Lage token with this and it will be epic. It isn't out of the question that Crafty Cutpurse could be a real sideboard card against a Standard tokens deck either.

I don't think the card is crap, which is more credit than anybody else has given it.

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Next on the list of cards nobody likes, Induced Amnesia has that prerequisite amount of durdle going on where most people just assume it does nothing. We're discarding cards and drawing the same number of cards for three mana. Who cares?

An important element of the card is that if Induced Amnesia goes to the graveyard, the player gets those cards back and doesn't actually have to discard. So, it could potentially be a useful draw spell, provided a player was willing to jump through the hoop of having a sacrifice outlet.

I'm not saying the card is pure gas, but if a player searched hard enough there might be an engine there somewhere. Hatching Plans is a card. Crack the Earth? Things get a little crazy. Who knows?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mastermind's Acquisition

I know Magic has changed over the years, but I refuse to accept this is not a good card. Demonic Tutor Wish is a very powerful effect.

I would literally play this in every Commander deck that allowed me to use a sideboard. The effect is so powerful. I could even see this being played in Vintage or Legacy combo decks. A tutor that can access the sideboard is no joke. It's a huge option.

Foils of this will get expensive.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tendershoot Dryad

Another card that I'd be willing to wager is a lot better than it looks. First of all, the card gives you a token on each player's upkeep which means it will be very easy to achieve ascend. Assuming that our token deck can ascend, the card makes a 3/3 every turn. Not bad. It also randomly pumps all Saproling tokens.

It's actually a really powerful card. I wouldn't be surprised if it was secretly Constructed-playable in a token deck. Don't forget, Rampaging Ferocidon was banned which makes that type of strategy even better. I love threats that create traction and this one certainly does that.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tetzimoc, Primal Death

When a card is completely unbetaable in Limited it's typically an indication that it could be decent as a constructed card. Tetzimoc passes the first criteria. A giant monster that Plague Winds an opponent's team is messed up. I don't care how you slice it, no midrange deck is going to enjoy that!

Don't forget, this could also just be a control finisher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Warkite Marauder

Most of my picks have been bulk cards that could be real cards. I like these kinds of picks because, as I've already pointed out, presale prices are set as though the card had already hit! If the card is actually something it stays the same and if not it will quickly plummet. A card has to be pretty darn good to gain value now.

I actually think that Warkite Marauder could be a special card. Obviously, context is everything. Will the card find a home in a deck? Nobody knows.

With that being said, this card is straight-up busted in half. Two mana for a 2/1 flier with a relevant creature type is great. The fact that it just casts Ovinize every time it attacks? Wow.

First of all, in an aggressive deck this card makes blocking a nightmare. It's evasive, so it is hard to block already, but is great at clearing the ground for the rest of your forces. Also, Warkite's ability removes all abilities from the creature it targets, so it can essentially make it so a flying blocker won't be able to block.

And that's just the beginning. Imagine that you have a pinger in play. Or, imagine that your deck can easily kill one-toughness creatures for value like with Skulduggery. I can't guarantee the card will have a deck and be an all-star, but I can tell you that it's powerful and aggressively costed for what it does. I would not be surprised if the card was very good in Constructed.

Welcoming Rivals

Well, those are my sleeper picks... Enjoy the next three weeks of our new Standard and make some awesome trades!

Insider: Standard Bannings and MTGO Treasure Updates

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Standard is Saved!

Welcome back! In light of the Standard bannings, I recommend taking a look at my last article in case you missed it. As I suspected, Standard is just too important for Wizards's bottom line and Magic's overall health for them not to take action. With Attune with Aether and Rogue Refiner banned, Temur Energy will no longer be the dominant midrange deck it used to be. Grixis Energy Midrange will be poised to be a top-tier deck moving forward, and various Pummeler and GB Constrictor decks should remain viable competitive options, at least in the short term.

What was surprising was the nerf to Ramunap Red. That will make some of the forecasting in my last article incorrect, so I want to take a minute to reflect on what a nerf to Ramunap Red means for the format. In my article, I noted that Ramunap Red would be the deck to beat in a post-Energy world, but now it is unlikely that a hyper-aggressive Red Deck Wins iteration will sit atop the format. Yes, there will be various aggro shells vying for top-tier status, but none will be as blisteringly fast or as consistent as Ramunap Red was last season. This means that we should expect midrange decks – anything from Grixis Energy Midrange to token strategies – to claim a large metagame share.

What this means is that slower cards that don't gain life (like Hostage Taker and The Scarab God) will likely be much better than I gave them credit for in my article. I said that The Scarab God would likely fall to around 20.00 tix, and I no longer believe that to be the case. The Scarab God shot up in response to the announcement, and I expect it to stay high. With Ramunap Red brought to heel, I personally expect Blue-Black Control or Esper Approach to become the best deck in Standard.

Treasure Chest Update

The latest Treasure Chest update was neither widely advertised nor discussed. Instead of receiving its own announcement, it was buried in the Rivals of Ixalan preview league article. In fact, there was only one article discussing it, which you can find here.  Below I've made a graph covering all of the changes for Standard and Pauper cards. Like the last Treasure Chest update, the purpose behind most of the changes was to clean up the Modern and Eternal chaff. The value of curated cards is now higher, resulting in the EV of a chest rebounding to a healthy 2.53 tix.

I found this latest update to the treasure chests...uninspired. At a time when Pauper is shooting up in popularity, there is now no new supply of two of Pauper's most expensive cards entering the market. If Pauper continues to pick up steam, expect these cards to shoot closer to 20.00 tix. Palace Sentinels currently sits at 8.69 tix, and I'm a buyer at that price. Thorn of the Black Rose sits at 11.78 tix now, and is unlikely to dip below 10 tix at any point during the next few months. I think Entourage of Trest and Custodi Squire both make for reasonable buys. Both were "in print" for exactly two months, at a low frequency, in the Exclusives list. I bought my copies for less, but you could do worse than 2.00 tix for Entourage and 0.45 tix for Custodi Squire.

Regarding Standard, I'm a bit miffed that there were so few changes to the curated list. Why Botanical Sanctum remains at a 12 frequency while cheaper lands Blooming Marsh and Inspiring Vantage remain at a 20 frequency is beyond me. It suggests that the curated list is not being closely managed.

Approach of the Second Sun and Anointed Procession become legitimate speculation targets now that their supply infusion has been cut off. Overall, though, I don't expect the downward pressure of treasure chests to significantly hurt Standard cards i more people are interested in Standard than they have been for a while, and if this format proves to be fun and diverse, we can expect to see a broad increase in Standard demand.

Signing Off: What to Expect Next Week

Next week, I want to take a bit of a deeper dive into mythic card prices on MTGO. Over the summer, I provided you with tools to evaluate Standard uncommons, and next week, I hope to provide you with tools to evaluate Standard mythics, focusing on mythics with converted mana cost three or less. Historical awareness of card prices is really important for making the most of your speculations. It helps you get a feel for the market and a feel for when is a good time to buy or sell. I hope you will find the article useful.

A copy of my portfolio can be found here. I have begun selling off some of my aggro speculations, most notably Scrapheap Scrounger and Earthshaker Khenra. I was surprised by the decision to nerf Ramunap Red; Earthshaker Khenra's price is likely not going to recover, so I'm going to do my best to cut my losses and move on.

I encourage you to exercise patience as the Standard metagame begins to pick its winners and losers. Some cards will go up in value over the coming months, so if you believe in a card, hold onto it. Vraska's Contempt is one such card that I'm holding onto, despite its price shooting up over the past week.

This week I'd like to share with you a simple card that I think is really cool and flavorful. World, meet Bestial Domain. It's rare to find art that so perfectly fits your design idea. I'll see y'all next week!

Standard Winners from the Bannings and Rivals of Ixalan

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The bannings of Attune with Aether, Rogue Refiner, Ramunap Red, and Ramping Ferocidon in Standard have massive implications for the metagame, and in turn, the market. The release of Rivals of Ixalan  is another major factor in the metagame, and thus in determining demand for cards. The impact of both of these factors together means the market needs to be reassessed, because there is potential for profits on cards that are suddenly much more important than they were before.

There have already been some notable price increases, which I’ll cover today by explaining the metagame factors behind the movement, and by exploring related cards that have the potential to rise for the same reasons. I’ll also analyze which cards have seen major gains on Magic Online, because that insight into the heads of players will help predict metagame changes and reveal what paper cards might follow their lead and see large increases.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Search for Azcanta

A huge gainer this week has been Search for Azcanta. It bottomed out just above $10 at the end of the year, and had risen to $13 by Monday before spiking to $18 as of Thursday. The bannings have been a boon to control strategies, including Approach of the Second Sun decks and Blue-Black Control, and Search for Azcanta is an essential part of their strategy, so it’s no surprise the card is seeing increased demand. The card has also been performing in Modern, where it’s an essential part of the Jeskai Control deck that took both finals spots in the last SCG Modern Open, and it’s even being used in Legacy in the White-Blue Miracles deck, so there’s a lot of long-term potential as well.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Torrential Gearhulk

Another key control card, Torrential Gearhulk grew by 25 percent online this week, up over 17 tix, while the paper version has just started to trend upward to $12 after hitting a bottom just over $11, its all-time-low since its first spike after release. There seem to be money to be made on the card, which could head back over $20 like it has multiple times before when it was at the top of the metagame.

Some further plays to cash-in on the control trend are Approach of the Second Sun, Settle the Wreckage, and Fumigate, as well as Disallow and Vraska's Contempt, all of which have seen large gains online.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jadelight Ranger

The banning of Rogue Refiner hasn’t knocked Temur Energy out of the picture, because a post-ban version has already put up a league 5-0 online. Replacing its banned three-drop was a set of Jadelight Ranger, which is also being used in Black-Green Winding Constrictor, which has also put up a 5-0, and various Merfolk decks. Value-generating green midrange creatures have held a pivotal role in Standard for years, and Jadelight Ranger seems to be the newest incarnation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Verdurous Gearhulk

Jadelight Ranger’s presence in many decks means there are a lot of options for related buys, but the biggest winner seems to be Verdurous Gearhulk, which goes hand-in-hand with the card in Winding Constrictor decks. It has the potential to become a top-tier deck and spike the price of the mythic, which has seen its price fall to an all-time low below $5, but is now trending upwards, and has already increased online from below 2 tix to over 3.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Regisaur Alpha

One of the biggest paper gainers this week has been Regisaur Alpha, which is up $4 from $3, and from just over $2 a week before that. Dinosaurs has gained a lot of support and may now be competitive, and a 5-0 league list is a strong sign that it could be the real deal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ripjaw Raptor

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathgorge Scavenger

Some related cards to consider include Ripjaw Raptor, which is up to almost $5 from $4 a week ago, and Deathgorge Scavenger, which has seen its price sag below $4, but is now better than ever because the banning of Ramping Ferocidon means it’s the clear best three-drop for Red-Green Dinos, and it’s lifegain trigger is no longer being hosed by Mono-Red opponents.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kopala, Warden of Waves

The strongest price of Rivals of Ixalan is being commanded by Kumena, Tyrant of Orazca, and it has elevated the rest of the Merfolk along with it. Kopala, Warden of Waves is up from $2 to over $2.50 this week, and from $1 at the new year, and looks to be a nice support card for the tribe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kumena's Speaker

Any of the other Merfolk could be good buys, so a card like Kumena's Speaker, which is only $0.30, seems to have nowhere to go but up, and could easily sell for $1 this season, and even more down the road as it enters the realm of Modern staple.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Legion's Landing

The banning of Rampaging Ferocidon took a weight off the shoulders of tokens strategies, which are now back in the picture as a competitive option. Anointed Procession saw a huge spike online, while Legion's Landing is trending upwards online and in paper.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vraska, Relic Seeker

Abzan tokens was the most successful before, and has put up a 5-0 league finish already, so a card from that deck I am eyeing is Vraska, Relic Seeker, which is down to an all-time low of $12, but could potentially head back towards the price over $25 it commanded when Abzan Tokens was all the rage.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Glint-Sleeve Siphoner

Grixis Energy never quite made the big time, but it was competitive, and it looks a lot better now that green energy has received a major blow. Glint-Sleeve Siphoner has more than doubled online since the announcement, up from under 3 tix to 6, and was only 1.5 tix a few days before that, so this massive growth, plus a league 5-0 already in the bag, is a great sign that the $3 paper price of the card will follow.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heart of Kiran

A very notable online gainer in the day after the announcement was Heart of Kiran, a staple of the Mardu Vehicles deck that at one time was a legitimate option in the Temur Energy/Mono-Red metagame, and is suddenly back in the picture, and could even replace Mono-Red as the best aggressive deck. It has almost doubled online this week, from 4.4 tix to nearly 8, so the paper price, which is at an all-time-low under $6, looks like a great buy given its former high above $25. Some associated picks are Concealed Courtyard and Inspiring Vantage, which have also approximately doubled online this week.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scrapheap Scrounger

Scrapheap Scrounger is also appealing, given that is has spiked online but is at its paper all-time-low under $1.

-Adam

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