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Insider: MTGO Market Report for June 8th, 2016

Posted on June 8, 2016January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of June 6^th, 2016. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively. Note that sets of Theros (THS) are out of stock in the store, so this set is no longer redeemable.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Flashback Draft of the Week

This week drafters get to add a booster pack of Morningtide to their Lorwyn drafts. Scapeshift, Vendilion Clique, Bitterblossom and Mutavault all show up in the new booster. This makes the Morningtide booster relatively high value compared to Lorwyn, so we should see continued drafts firing and a steady supply of singles entering the market.

Modern

The fallout from the full set spoiler of Eternal Masters (EMA) is still being felt, although the shock waves are dissipating. Many staples are near their long-term price ceilings, including Infernal Tutor, Inkmoth Nexus, Cavern of Souls and the recently unbanned Ancestral Vision. Now is the time to be reducing your holdings of these cards, in advance of EMA release events and the attendant liquidity crunch.

Standard

Let's take a close look at the price charts on a few Standard cards. I am not going to reveal the names of these three cards, but you'll notice they are all from Shadows over Innistrad (SOI). They also all have something in common.

Each of these cards started below 0.5 tix, and by the time SOI was released on MTGO on April 18th, they were all roughly 0.5 tix. Over the course of the past six weeks, they have all climbed to over 2 tix. Any guesses as to the name of these three cards? Well, the first is Humble the Brute, the second is Nearheath Chaplain and the third is Reckless Scholar. The trick is that these are the foil versions.

Once again, relative scarcity leaves its mark on the price of digital objects in the MTGO economy. In this case the prerelease events for SOI are the culprit. These events awarded a bonus foil rare or foil mythic rare which means that these cards are relatively abundant compared to the foil uncommons.

In the past, this hasn't mattered much since prereleases had poor prize support relative to normal release events. Players just waited to play the events with better prize support. With the release of SOI, release events were eliminated and prereleases now carry improved prize support. This meant that many players chose to enter these events, which generated a flood of foil rares and foil mythic rares.

This is great news for speculators as it provides another strategy on foil cards to employ during set releases. Unlike foil mythic rares, which appear to be a profitable long-term strategy, this strategy should be profitable in the short term as long as the trade doesn't get too crowded. It's also helpful that the buy-in price on foil uncommons should be low, so novice speculators will get a chance to test out the strategy without investing too many tix. Players who want to try out the new cards should also feel confident in buying into foil uncommons during set releases.

To outline the strategy in detail,

1. During the first two weeks of a set release, buy a basket of foil uncommons. It is very important to buy a variety of uncommons since it's unpredictable which ones will rise the most.

2. Hold for one to three months.

3. Sell the foil uncommons as their relative scarcity drives up their price.

In the case of the three cards chosen above, I cherry-picked the three most expensive foil uncommons. To illustrate the risk of choosing the wrong ones, let's look at the lowest-priced foil uncommons to make sure this strategy won't be a disaster in the making.

There are six different foil uncommons listed for sale at Goatbots and they have buy/sell prices in tix of 0.31/0.54. Murderer's Axe, Stone Quarry and Pick the Brain are the three at the bottom. Here are their respective price graphs from MTGGoldfish.

What we learn from looking at the worst three performers is that you don't want to overpay as you could be saddled with cards that don't appreciate in price. So, let's add another step to the strategy.

4. Do not pay more than 0.4 tix for any particular uncommon.

This strategy depends on the entry fees and prize structure of prerelease events. If prerelease events are the same for Eldritch Moon (EMN) as they were for SOI, then the strategy will be successful.

Longer-term, the foil mythic rare strategy will have to be reappraised in light of these changes. I suspect that foil mythic rares will still be a good store of value over the long term, but we'll have to see how prices develop on foils from SOI in the fall before I can confidently recommend foil mythic rares as a speculative strategy. Players will still be well served by purchasing a complete playset of foil mythics, but speculators would be better served in the short term by looking to foil uncommons.

Standard Boosters

Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) boosters have seen a significant price jump this week and now sit above 3.6 tix. The outlook for these is to hit 4 tix sometime this summer. Though with the pending release of Eternal Masters (EMA) next week, interest in Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) block draft will tail off and players will be selling anything they're not using for tix in order to draft the new set.

As a result, prices are expected to be flat or falling in the next few weeks. Once EMA drafts wind down in early July, the uptrend should resume as players look to formats other than SOI to draft while they wait for the release of Eldritch Moon (EMN).

BFZ boosters have not appreciated at the same rate due to the noted disparity in the ratio of OGW and BFZ boosters awarded in prizes (7:5) versus the ratio of boosters needed to enter a draft (8:4). This ratio favors the price of OGW boosters over the long term as they are awarded in prizes less frequently than they are needed for draft entry. Tix flow towards scarcity and that is why we are seeing prices of OGW boosters rise so aggressively.

It's not clear when or even if BFZ boosters will ever rise to a similar level. I expect them to be higher in a month and then to reach a medium-term peak at the end of August, but how high they ultimately rise is just a guess.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. This week I put a playset of Thoughtseize and Cryptic Command into the portfolio. Flashback drafts should be the bread and butter for any speculator interested in Modern that wants to expand their portfolio. With triple Lorwyn draft on the go, you don't have to look very far to find a couple of Modern staples in these two cards.

Timing the purchase of cards from flashback drafts is more of an art than a science at this point. When I perused the prices on these cards this week, I noticed that both were near their long-term price floor. At 4.79 tix a piece, I felt it prudent to start buying.

It's possible that a flood of supply from the drafts would make this early purchase look foolish. But it's also possible that that the fear of reprints had driven players to sell their extra copies, driving down the price too far. In either scenario, if a speculator holds a long-term perspective, then buying near the price floor will yield good results. I anticipate holding these cards for 6+ months or until they get back into the 8 to 10 tix range, whichever comes first.

Lastly, there are other Modern-playable cards in Lorwyn, but a card like Doran, the Siege Tower is much more fringe than the two cards I bought. The legendary treefolk might eventually yield a good return. Maybe there will be a new Tier 1 deck using Doran that catapults its price well over 10 tix. However, the weight of the historical evidence is that Doran will continue to only be fringe-playable and that a speculator is better off allocating tix towards cards that are played more frequently.

Modern Metagame Breakdown: 5/1/16 – 5/31/16

Posted on June 8, 2016 by Sheridan Lardner

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I've always been more of a paper player than an online one, but that changed a few weeks ago when I bought myself an MTGO deck as an early birthday present. Can you guess my purchase? Hint: if you've seen "ktkenshinx" around the tournament practice tables, chances are you've been eating Lightning Storms with Pact backup. Or you're one of the Eldrazi and Taxes or Merfolk players dropping Chalice of the Void at X=1 in Games 2 and 3 to ruin my evening. Jerks. Thalias and Tidehollows aside, I've loved playing more Modern than I usually get to enjoy, and it's been a treat experiencing Modern's unparalleled diversity firsthand. Whether you're playing a pet strategy too, re-watching Grand Prix coverage from a few weekends back, or just consuming Modern content across the community, it's been impossible to ignore just how fun Modern has become.

When we last checked in for our April metagame update, Modern was in a great place heading into May's Grand Prix weekend. This diversity had even increased on the eve of the tournaments. Fast forward to the Monday after Los Angeles and Charlotte, and it became clear this wasn't the Modern we'd come to expect from 2015 and earlier. Modern's post-Grand Prix prognosis couldn't have looked better. Merfolk won Los Angeles. Ad Nauseam (woo!) won Charlotte. Jund and Affinity defied naysayers and solidified format holds, and blue-based upstart Jeskai Control powered into Tier 1. Between these major finishes and all the Tier 2 and lower performances behind them, Modern has rarely been better. Today, we'll break the May standings down to give a picture of the format heading into the summer.

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Data Collection Methods

If you're just joining us for the first time, check out our Top Decks page for an in-depth explanation of our collection sources and classification sources. Our main Modern Nexus claim to fame is the comprehensive monthly metagame update, bringing together tournament data from more sites and sources than any other content provider on the web. Between the leadup to Grand Prix weekend, events surrounding the early May Star City Games Opens, and the TCG Player States circuit, May was a bountiful harvest for Modern data collectors.

For today's 5/1 through 5/31 breakdown, we're tracking 119 paper events covering 967 individual decklists, typically from tournament Top 8s. Online Leagues and other events add another 32 tournaments to the analysis, making up 326 lists. Our weighted metagame shares account for the relative difference in our paper and MTGO n's, with online events accounting for only about one-third as much as paper ones. In addition to these over 1,200 decks, we also add in the Day 2 standings from both SCG Opens and Grand Prix, as well as Top 16 standings from all four major paper venues.

Using these datapoints, we calculate weighted metagame shares and award decks points based on their shares in different categories. We bring those percentages and points together to construct our Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 listings.

Tier 1 Decks

Most players have some concept of what "Tier 1" means, but it often varies wildly from gaming group to gaming group. Such tiering definition inconsistencies were unusually present in May. The month saw some Modern community members describing Abzan Company and Jeskai Control as "Tier 0," while others classified RG Tron and Jund as Tier 2 or lower. Both groups were ultimately proven wrong in different ways, but this underscores the need for consistent and transparent tier definitions, not just hyperbolic descriptors based on gut feeling and proving a point.

We define Tier 1 as those decks which you are likely to encounter in a major tournament. Your testing gauntlet should always include these strategies, and you should have specific sideboard plans for dealing with each of them. (Read: don't forget those Stony Silences!) Tier 1 decks also have a track record of competitive success, so they make strong choices for any upcoming tournaments. You can learn more about the Tier 1 classification, and its underlying statistics, on our Top Decks page.

Here are the Modern Tier 1 standings for the 5/1 through 5/31 period.

Tier 1: 5/1/16 - 5/31/16

Deck	Overall Metagame %	Paper %	MTGO %	Major Event Day 2%
Jund	8.8%	8.2%	6.7%	10.3%
RG Tron	7.6%	7.0%	4.0%	9.7%
Infect	6.3%	5.7%	6.7%	7.4%
Jeskai Control	6.0%	7.3%	4.6%	4.4%
Burn	5.9%	5.9%	5.5%	6.2%
Abzan Company	5.5%	5.7%	1.5%	6.5%
Affinity	4.7%	6.0%	5.8%	2.2%

May's Tier 1 listings include seven total decks with six of those carrying over from April. Our one newcomer? Say hello to Jeskai Control, the blue-based, Snapcaster Mage deck we've been waiting for since Twin's departure in January. We'll break down each of these strategies shortly, but looking at Tier 1 collectively, we see about 45% of the format represented in this uppermost echelon of familiar faces. We also see no single deck touting a share higher than 10%, not just in the overall metagame standings but even in each individual column (Jund is the sole exception, a hair over at 10.3% for the Major Event Day 2 numbers). This suggests a powerful and format-defining Tier 1, but also a Tier 1 where no single strategy is dominant.

Although all of April's Tier 1 strategies made the May cut, we still saw considerable internal movement within the tier itself. The table below tracks those metagame share changes from the April period into May, sorted from the gainers (RG Tron at 4%) to the losers (Affinity at -1.1%).

Tier 1 Changes: April to May

Deck	% Change April to May	Overall Meta % 5/1 - 5/31	Overall Meta % 4/8 - 5/1
RG Tron	+4.0%	7.6%	3.6%
Jeskai Control	+2.2%	6.0%	3.8%
Infect	+0.7%	6.3%	5.6%
Abzan Company	-0.3%	5.5%	5.8%
Jund	-0.6%	8.8%	9.4%
Burn	-1.0%	5.9%	6.9%
Affinity	-1.1%	4.7%	5.8%

It's noteworthy that despite significant jumps and dips within Tier 1, the overall listing remained intact from April to May. This means we shouldn't read too much into the individual numbers, other than as general indicators of relative popularity. For instance, Tron and Jeskai benefited from extensive publicity and hype, pushing their way up the charts. Affinity and Burn, although still very viable, did not get that same kind of profile. In both cases, the percentage changes aren't necessarily indicative of viability, but rather of how players adopted or avoided certain strategies.

In keeping with our in-depth Tier 1 format from April, here's a deck-by-deck breakdown of Modern's most popular (and generally most successful) decks.

Unstoppable Jund (8.8%)
Tron spikes from April into May and Jund is still on top? Whether in April or May, Jund has repeatedly defended its format throne. It was the most-played Day 2 deck all month, the most-played in paper and MTGO, and sent the most pilots to Grand Prix Top 8s: Mike Sigrist and Adonnys Medrano at Charlotte and Javier Dominguez at Los Angeles. As I wrote about last week, Jund has evolved to handle new threats like Nahiri, the Harbinger while maintaining top-dog status. BGx friends and foes: stop saying Jund is dead because all its Tier 1 matchups aren't 51% or better. Tron, a decidedly unfavorable Jund matchup, is May's second-most played deck and Jund is still king, losing only .6% to Tron's +4%. If that's not a sign of resilience, I don't know what is.

RG Tron (7.6%) silences doubters
Coming off Eye of Ugin's righteous banning, skeptics doubted Tron could hang in the big leagues without its inevitability. Some World Breakers, Sanctum of Ugins, and big tournament finishes later, the only thing to be skeptical about is the decision to remove Crumble to Dust from your sideboard. Despite only sending one pilot to the Grand Prix Top 8s, and despite a middling conversion rate from Day 2 into the Top 32, Tron nonetheless rocketed up the Tier 1 charts by 4% off widespread adoption at the local and regional level. This context suggests the deck is totally viable despite its Grand Prix shortcomings, and that players will need to keep their hate for at least another few months.

More Tron, more Infect (6.3%)
Last month, I noted Infect would likely stay in Tier 1 until a Snapcaster/Lightning Bolt deck climbed the charts to overthrow Blighted Agent's top-tier foothold. Jeskai Control, a mere .3% under Infect, fits that bill perfectly, and yet Infect is up .6% into May. The reason? Just look up one bullet point. RG Tron's +4% surge neither dethroned Jund nor prevented Jeskai decks from their own +2.2% jump, but it definitely created a favorable climate for Infect players. I expect this uptick would have been higher without Jeskai keeping the Elves and Agents at bay. Infect remains a strong deck, as evidenced by its solidly average Grand Prix conversion rates, but it also remains a metagame call. Got Tron? Bring out the Inkmoths. Got Jeskai and Jund? Either gamble on speed or stay away.

Blue's back with Jeskai Control (6%)
Tier 1 Snapcaster returns! We've seen both sides of the Jeskai hype train, with some suggesting Nahiri's banning six months out and others claiming the deck is not viable. The numbers are in and Jeskai Control has more overall success than Burn, Abzan Company, and even Affinity. Get 'em Tiago! Paper events were particularly favorable to Jeskai, where it was the second most-played strategy after Jund, and where Jeskai's Grand Prix performance matched or exceeded all but five decks in Modern. Nahiri, the Harbinger was integral to this success, with 3-4 appearing in 64% of Jeskai Control builds, followed by Kiki-Jiki at 15%, and no-frills Snap/Bolt/Colonnade at 21%. Nahiri was also Francis Cellona's win condition of choice en route to missing the Los Angeles Top 8 by .018 on tiebreakers. Without Nahiri, Jeskai would likely be stuck in Tier 2 around 2%-2.5%. Believe in Nahiri, believe in Jeskai, and get ready for a blue Tier 1 deck.

Can't go wrong with Burn (5.9%)
There isn't a more average Tier 1 deck than Burn and its May standings in all metagame categories reflect this positioning. Burn is the third least-played Tier 1 deck in the overall shares, in paper, and in Day 2, creeping up a slot in MTGO alone. It dropped 1% from April to May, had the second-worst Grand Prix performance of any Tier 1 deck, and yet, the deck still remains a consistent Tier 1 mainstay. Can't beat counting to 20! As long as Abzan Company and Jeskai Control are Tier 1, and as long as Tier 2 Gruul Zoo keeps munching on Burn's share, Goblin Guide's merry band won't get much higher than the 5%-7% range, but they sure will stick around. Don't bail from Burn based on this mediocre month, and don't ditch your anti-Burn bullets---this is still a Tier 1 regular.

Abzan Company (5.5%): just another Tier 1 deck
In a month of Modern misclassifications, the cries about Tier 0 Abzan Company were some of the worst. They were particularly offensive given our emergence from a real period of Tier 0 dominance, when Eldrazi was 35% of the overall format. Abzan Company might as well be a Standard deck compared to old Eldrazi, and the May metagame update shows this is just another strong Tier 1 contender. It was solid across all metagame categories and right up there with Jeskai Control, Burn, and Infect in Grand Prix performance metrics. RG Tron definitely kept Abzan Company at bay, although the deck stayed flat at 5.5% despite Tron's +4% jump. If you're battling Abzan Company, Grafdigger's Cage is looking more exciting than usual between Company decks, an uptick in Tier 2 Kiki Chord, and Nahiri in Tier 1.

Ups and downs with Affinity (4.7%)
In a departure from Affinity's traditional placing, the robots fell to the bottom of Tier 1 for our May update. This represents a strange case where the overall numbers are likely under-estimating Affinity's real potential. On the one hand, Affinity was pre-trending down as we got closer to Grand Prix weekend, falling from 5.8% to 4.6% just a week before Los Angeles and Charlotte. Then came the Grand Prix, which saw Affinity snag second at one and overall put up the best conversion rates and performance behind only Jund. This reflects a contrasting perception of Affinity's weaknesses and reality of Affinity's strengths. Although Affinity is undoubtedly down the charts, it's far from out so do not cut your hate unless you're confident a local metagame lacks artifacts. Affinity should be back up the standings by the next Grand Prix in August.

Because we're heading into a quiet period for Modern events, with just a pair of SCG Opens to satisfy us until the August Grand Prix, the May Tier 1 listings should prove more influential than those in other months. When in doubt, players tend to take cues from the biggest and most current events. Look no further than Grand Prix Charlotte and Los Angeles, which were critical drivers in this update. Percentage-wise, about 33% of the "Overall Metagame Share" calculations come directly from Grand Prix numbers, with another 25% being directly influenced by the post-Grand Prix wake.

Overall, this ensures May's update gives extra weight to the high-profile Grand Prix while also accounting for those smaller and regional events which make up the brunt of worldwide Modern gameplay. Expect these Tier 1 standings to stay relatively stable through August.

Tier 2 Decks

Taking a step down to Tier 2, we find competitive decks with tournament potential. Each of these strategies have the results and stats to suggest a record of success, and you could sleeve up any of them and have a solid shot at an event Top 8. Although you don't need to outfit your sideboard for all of these strategies, you should at least understand how they work and how your deck plays out its varied Tier 2 matchups. You won't see Tier 2 decks at every single event (not even the largest ones), but don't be surprised to encounter them in either Round 1 or a tournament finals.

Tier 2: 5/1/16 - 5/31/16

Deck	Overall Metagame %	Paper %	MTGO %	Major Event Day 2%
Scapeshift	3.7%	2.3%	3.4%	6.3%
Merfolk	3.4%	4.3%	0.9%	2.5%
Gruul Zoo	2.9%	3.1%	6.1%	1.5%
Eldrazi	2.8%	2.0%	3.4%	4.0%
Titan Shift	2.8%	3.0%	1.5%	2.8%
Grixis Control/Midrange	2.7%	2.7%	3.0%	2.7%
Elves	2.5%	2.0%	2.7%	3.3%
Death and Taxes	2.5%	2.1%	4.3%	2.6%
Ad Nauseam	2.2%	2.6%	2.7%	1.3%
Kiki Chord	2.2%	1.9%	1.8%	2.9%
Abzan	2.1%	1.4%	1.5%	3.5%

Between Tier 1's collective 45% and Tier 2's net 30%, we're accounting for about 75% of the format in its uppermost standings. In Tier 2 alone, that 30% is spread across 11 distinct strategies running the range from control (blue-based Scapeshift) to midrange (Abzan and Grixis), with aggro (Merfolk and Gruul Zoo), combo (Ad Nauseam), ramp (Titan Shift), and various hybrids (Kiki Chord, Elves, Eldrazi) in between. This archetypal diversity is a Modern hallmark, and it's always refreshing to see it expressed numerically in both Tier 1 and Tier 2.

May sees one of the most noticeable gaps between the bottom-most Tier 1 strategy (Affinity at 4.7%) and the highest in Tier 2 (Scapeshift at 3.7%). In many previous updates, April's most recently and December's before that with .2% and .4% respectively, we've seen much smaller differences between the Tier 1 bottom and the Tier 2 top. Those past disparities suggested a less settled metagame, where Tier 2 could easily bleed into Tier 1. By contrast, May's full 1% difference could point to a more established and mature format, despite it being less than two months past the Eldrazi ban. Given how many Tier 1 and Tier 2 decks are Modern oldies, with Eldrazi and Kiki Chord being the only real exceptions, it seems likely the format is increasingly moving towards a stable core of decks with a few metagame "flex slots." We'll have to see if this trend holds in upcoming breakdowns.

Because this month's Tier 2 shares so many decks with last month's, many need no introduction. Except, of course, Ad Nauseam, which won Charlotte and remains the well-positioned "true combo deck" of Modern, as long as your metagame isn't too packed with unwinnable Infect and uphill Eldrazi and Taxes matches. Outside of personal decks, here are a few observations on Tier 2 strategies:

Merfolk vs. Gruul Zoo
When selecting between Tier 2's premier aggro decks, Gruul Zoo keeps the excitement factor off its techy adoption of Reckless Bushwhacker and explosive Burning-Tree Emissary starts, whereas Merfolk can feel like a safe and dull holdover from 2011 Modern. Merfolk is still where you want to be, with the fish boasting a much more commanding record of success including a Grand Prix win, a strong conversion rate from Day 2 into the Top 32 (beating out four Tier 1 decks in those metrics!), and a more impressive paper share. Merfolk's low MTGO numbers are likely due to a Kira, Great Glass-Spinner bug more than viability, further pushing Merfolk above Gruul Zoo. There's nothing wrong with Guides and Emissaries in smaller venues (they clearly excel in five-round Leagues), but paper has been overall much more welcoming to Master of the Pearl Trident's school than to the Gruul horde.

Eldrazi's back!
Between Thought-Knot Seer and Wasteland Strangler in Death and Taxes, and Ancient Stirrings plus the entire Eldrazi crew in Bant and RG Eldrazi builds, our resident format nightmare is proving its relevance even after Eye of Ugin's incarceration. Pascal Mayndard's Bant Eldrazi list earned 4th place at Los Angeles, renewing interest in Modern's old menace but in a much fairer form. Eldrazi Temple keeps the deck viable, but without Eye, it looks like Eldrazi is relegated to a safe Tier 2 slot for now. Maynard's Eldrazi run came at the end of the month, so don't be surprised if more players pick up the deck in June and beyond now that they've seen it in action.

A tale of two Valakuts
RG Titan Shift, powered by Primeval Titan with no blue nonsense to get in the way, got all the attention going into May. Traditional Temur and more innovative Bring to Light builds got pushed off the Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle hype train, but still managed to put up more results all month long. These numbers suggest Titan Shift remains a strong deck, but that blue-based Scapeshift has slight edges in this format. That's vindicating for blue players who want their Snapcasters and Cryptic Commands, and for format optimists who want to see more interaction and non-linear strategies in Modern's top-tiers. Given just how well blue-based Scapeshift did over the Grand Prix (the overall third-best performer after only Affinity and Jund), don't expect this to change any time soon.

The important thing to remember in Tier 2 is that all these decks are about equally viable, with only blue-based Scapeshift and Merfolk decks picking up serious percentage points over the rest of Tier 2. This lets you select any Tier 2 build and be reasonably assured of success, and ensures the metagame stays open as we head into summer. Personally, I'd be happy if Eldrazi-powered Death and Taxes saw a dip in its MTGO share of 4.3% down to its paper numbers in the low 2% range, but that's just the Ad Nauseam talking.

Tier 3 Decks

Our metagame tour ends in Tier 3, the niche strategies which have tournament potential but only in specific metagames. Tier 3 decks are generally worse than a competing Tier 1 or 2 option, but depending on your level of experience and identification of metagame trends, they could be appropriate for a certain event. When reading through the Tier 3 numbers, pay close attention to their performance in individual columns, not just in the overall standings. Some Tier 3 decks may have virtually zero paper and Day 2 presence despite exceeding 1% on MTGO. Such strategies might be poor choices for a local SCG Invitational Qualifier, but great in an upcoming MTGO League; plan accordingly.

As a final note on Tier 3 strategies, many of these options have Tier 2 potential but just aren't quite there yet. Don't discount them entirely just because May was not their month to shine, especially if the Tier 3 deck in question has been in Tier 2 or higher before.

Tier 3: 5/1/16 - 5/31/16

Deck	Overall Metagame %	Paper %	MTGO %	Major Event Day 2%
Bogles	1.3%	1.8%	1.2%	0.7%
Naya Company	1.3%	1.5%	1.2%	0.9%
Storm	1.1%	1.2%	0.3%	1.1%
Suicide Zoo	1.0%	0.5%	4.3%	0.7%
Hatebears	1.0%	0.7%	0.6%	1.5%
Living End	1.0%	1.4%	0.0%	0.7%
Griselbrand	1.0%	0.6%	0.6%	1.7%
Grixis Delver	0.9%	0.9%	1.2%	0.8%
Mono U Tron	0.5%	0.5%	1.5%	0.0%
Dredgevine	0.5%	0.7%	1.2%	0.0%
Dredge	0.5%	0.3%	1.8%	0.5%
Summoning Trap	0.4%	0.4%	1.5%	0.0%
Mill	0.3%	0.1%	1.2%	0.3%
RW Lockdown	0.3%	0.1%	0.6%	0.6%
Tooth and Nail	0.3%	0.3%	1.2%	0.0%
Knightfall	0.3%	0.4%	0.0%	0.3%
Shotgun	0.1%	0.0%	1.2%	0.0%

I always group Tier 3 decks into two categories. First, you have the former Tier 2 (or higher) dropouts who have fallen into the Tier 3 fringe based on unfavorable metagame positioning. This includes Bogles, Naya Company, Suicide Zoo, Living End, Griselbrand, Grixis Delver, and even Knightfall down at the very bottom. Because these strategies have hit Tier 2 before, I'm more optimistic about their chances of returning in the right metagame context.

When decks like Bogles and Suicide Zoo plunge to Tier 3 this suggests one of two factors. First, it's possible there is some fundamental incompatibility between what these decks are are doing and the influence top-tier strategies are exerting on the metagame. A great example is powerful but unremarkable Naya Company, which lacks the combo finish of Abzan Company, plays second fiddle to toolbox strategy Kiki Chord, sees its creatures outgunned by bigshot Eldrazi, and gets raced by Zoo players rocking the Gruul style. This kind of deck (and others like Grixis Delver, Bogles, Knightfall, etc.) may yet return to Tier 2, but it's not the best choice today and I'd avoid these kinds of strategies in summer tournaments.

The second factor influencing Tier 2 expatriates is popularity, or rather, lack of popularity for a deck that might otherwise be a decent choice. Suicide Zoo is the current posterchild of this effect, sending Sam Black to Charlotte's Top 8 and rocking an impressive 4.3% on MTGO. The only thing keeping Suicide Zoo out of Tier 2 is its widespread absence from paper events, where players either haven't realized its strengths or have ignored them in favor of similar strategies like Infect and Gruul Zoo. If you think a Tier 3 strategy fits in the Suicide Zoo pattern (Griselbrand with its decent Day 2 showings is another example), then feel free to sleeve it up. Although popularity is certainly one indicator of deck strength, you can't innovate the next big thing from popularity benchmarks alone.

Of course, the second category of Tier 3 strategies are flash-in-the-pan, flavor-of-the-month transients which could be here in May and gone in June. See RW Lockdown, the Assault Strobe and Nivmagus Elemental "Shotgun" deck, UBx Mill, and others. These decks are in a similar category to the Tier 3 regulars which occasionally slide out of Tier 3 entirely but are often hanging out here waiting for their pet pilots to bring them to the tournament floor: see Storm, Dredgevine, Mono U Tron, and related builds.

All of these are the kinds of Tier 3 representatives I would avoid unless you've expertly identified the metagame, especially at a more predictable local level, or you've been playing the deck since Modern's birth and can compensate for sub-optimal metagame positioning on experience and knowledge. Maybe these Tier 3 stragglers climb higher as the year progresses, but if history is any indicator, they are likely to be Modern's perennial fringe for some time to come.

Metagame Predictions for 6/1 - 6/30

Forecast time! Before we get to predictions for June, let's revisit those we made in April. We don't always get metagame projections right, but with a track record of success in 2015 (68%, a.k.a. much better than a coin toss!), these articles show that metagames can be predicted by paying careful attention to pre-trends and existing standings. April was no exception.

Jund and others stay Tier 1? Yes!
In an evolving metagame, there was no guarantee that Jund, Abzan Company, Infect, Affinity, and Burn would all stay Tier 1. That was especially true for Jund and Abzan Company, the former of which many believed was on its way out, and the latter of which fell victim to an RG Tron uptick. Small shifts aside, all of these decks remained in Tier 1, suggesting a stable top-tier core which is likely to hold through August.

One Ancestral Vision deck hits Tier 1? Yes.
This one was a mixed bag. On the one hand, Jeskai Control did hit Tier 1, fulfilling the prediction of a top-tier blue deck. On the other hand, this was largely due to Nahiri and much less due to Vision. On the other hand again, about 50% of the Jeskai decks did use Vision in some form, with about 30% of the total Jeskai decks using 3-4 in the maindeck and the other 20% shipping 2-3 to the sideboard. That said, Nahiri was the all-star, not Vision, even if the end result is still a Tier 1 blue-based control deck. Given both Jeskai's rise to Tier 1 and Vision's contributions to that, I'm giving this prediction a qualified "Yes" where the intent was still fulfilled. Blue mages get their day in the sun!

June is an off-season month with only a single SCG Open to keep the Moderners satisfied, so there's unlikely to be too much movement around the tiers. This makes it harder to make bold predictions, but I'll make two smaller ones based on trends I'm noticing now and in response to some buzz I've heard around the community.

Jeskai Control stays Tier 1
I've heard a lot of undue Jeskai Control criticism in the past weeks. "Nahiri is bad." "Jeskai isn't a real deck." "Control still sucks." Let's call these naysayers for what they are: haters. Thankfully for Jeskai fans and proponents of a healthy Modern metagame, the numbers point to Jeskai Control's legitimate strengths and this shouldn't change in June. This deck has real staying power, both due to Nahiri (she's the real deal) and its robust mix of removal and countermagic. These tools should be more than enough to keep Jeskai Control in Tier 1 for another month, hopefully silencing many of the haters and doubters who maintain blue-based control is untenable in Modern. May proved them wrong once and June should do it again.

Eldrazi climbs the Tier 2 standings
Bant Eldrazi was a latecomer to the May party, and I expect we would have seen more widespread Eldrazi adoption if Maynard had made his Grand Prix run earlier in the month. As it stands, Eldrazi Temple is still an excellent Modern staple and I will be surprised if we don't see more Eldrazi as tournaments unfold throughout June. Pre-trends support this prediction, with most of May's Eldrazi falling in the RG category and not Bant. When it was time for the Grand Prix, it was Noble Hierarch and Drowner of Hope that carried the Eldrazi torch, which should shift focus to Bant colors building from Maynard's impressive 4th place finish. Expect Eldrazi to exceed 3% when we return in early July.

Thanks for joining me today in this comprehensive and exciting metagame breakdown. Head down to the comments with any questions about numbers, decks, card choices, or any and all things related to the Modern metagame. I'll be enjoying this diverse and open format on MTGO in the coming weeks and I encourage you to get out there and enjoy it as well. With so many enticing options in Tier 1 and Tier 2, there's a Modern strategy for basically every type of player, so get yourself a nice birthday or summer kickoff present and play some Modern!

The Best Deck in Standard

Posted on June 8, 2016June 7, 2016 by Ryan Overturf

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Oftentimes, I find myself working on a particular deck that I like while a different deck rises as the deck to beat in a Standard. I played red decks while Black Devotion was the deck to beat, I avoided Caw-Blade because I didn't have time to hone my skills in the mirror, and I only ever sleeved up Abzan after it was good. I like my Azorius Eldrazi deck though now we have more than enough data to stop pretending like there's a good reason to play other decks. I was right all along about Nissa, and there's nothing in Standard that is providing more free wins that Nissa into Gideon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Voice of Zendikar

Tokens is taking the lion's share of both Grand Prix winning decks as well as slots in the money of major events. The current number one ranked player in the world in Seth Manfield won a GP with the deck, and somebody you've never heard of in Alex Johnson won a GP with the deck. Gerry Thompson won 16 straight matches with the deck at the Atlanta Open! The format looked to be pretty wide open for a while, though now if you're not playing Tokens and you want to spike a tournament, you should pretty seriously be asking yourself why.

It's true that Tom Ross won the the Open in Atlanta in what was a pretty diverse Top 8 with Humans, but there's just no way he was about to play anything else. You'd also better believe that he wins games that nobody else could win with aggressive decks. Once you get past the Top 8 of Atlanta only having one tokens deck, you'll notice that 9th, 10th, and 11th were all tokens. The deck's consistency is absurd. Mike Sigrist led his article on SCG this week with the words, "G/W Tokens is the best deck in Standard. Don't argue. It just is."

I knew Tokens was a stupid deck going into GP Minneapolis, though I stuck to my guns because I knew my deck could realistically win any matchup, and that my Tokens matchup was generally positive. What I didn't account for, was the fact that even if I can beat Tokens, my deck doesn't get nearly the number of free wins that Tokens gets. I convinced myself to play The Rock when I had access to Jund- Bloodbraid Elf Jund. If you're planning on spending money on Standard entry fees in the near future, then consider it sound financial advice to register Tokens.

Transform and Preboard: Advanced Sideboarding

Posted on June 7, 2016 by David Ernenwein

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Sideboarding is a skill-intensive and essential component of competitive Magic. While it isn't an "Easy to learn, hard to master" skill, it feels very close. Sideboarding guides can be useful to overcome this learning curve, but they can also become a crutch and actively harmful to your chances of improving. Last week I went over the basics of the Modern sideboard. This week I'm going to follow up with more advanced strategies.

The strategy I advocated last week involved packing your sideboard with "silver bullets," cards that win the game unaided against certain decks. As a competitive player I cannot fathom why you wouldn't use as many as you can since they're free wins, but it isn't always possible. Some decks have no bullets for you to use or the colors you're playing don't support effective ones. There really isn't a silver bullet to beat Jund, for example (though Blood Moon comes close). This normally means that your only option is the Standard-style adjustment, bringing in cards that adjust the matchup rather than win it or dramatically alter things. While it might feel like this is the only option, that isn't true. If you're willing to commit to it, you can dramatically alter post-board games with a transformational sideboard, or try to pre-board against certain matchups.

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Transform and Dodge Hate

The idea of the transformational sideboard has been around for quite some time, but it isn't very popular. Sheridan mentioned it a few months ago in regards to Affinity bringing in Ghirapur Aether Grid and Ensnaring Bridge against Eldrazi, and also gave some pretty good reasons why you should stay away. However, while for many decks there isn't any point, there are other times when this strategy works. Let's investigate the latter.

When most players think of transformational sideboards I suspect that they are thinking of Terry Soh's Tooth and Nail deck from his Invitational win. For reference:

"Tooth and Nail, Terry Soh (2005 Invitational)"

Creatures

2 Duplicant

4 Eternal Witness

4 Sakura-Tribe Elder

2 Sundering Titan

1 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker

Artifacts

4 Sensei's Divining Top

3 Mindslaver

3 Oblivion Stone

Sorceries

4 Sylvan Scrying

4 Kodama's Reach

3 Reap and Sow

3 Tooth and Nail

1 Plow Under

Lands

4 Urza's Mine

4 Urza's Power Plan

4 Urza's Tower

10 Forest

Sideboard

3 Plow Under

4 Troll Ascetic

2 Molder Slug

2 Iwamori of the Open Fist

2 Razormane Masticore

2 Vine Trellis

Tooth and Nail was an incredibly powerful deck, but it was quite vulnerable to hate such as Sowing Salt, Bribery, and Cranial Extraction. The typical plan for the deck was to ramp up to an entwined Tooth and Nail, for Darksteel Colossus and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker to just win or Mephidross Vampire and Triskelion to clear the board of creatures. Removing a key creature or the namesake sorcery from the deck often left TnN unable to win.

Prior to Soh's Invitational win the trend had been to replace the combo pieces with more easily castable creatures that didn't immediately kill you if they got stolen. Soh took it to the logical limit by removing the TnN package entirely in games 2-3, turning his deck into a midrange beatdown deck in the style of Jamie Wakefield. The advantage was that he was now effectively invulnerable to the common TnN hate and the opponent was suddenly left with dead cards in their deck. This repositioning won Soh the Invitational and subsequently became the norm for TnN players for the remainder of its Standard life.

This is ultimately the problem with transformational sideboards and why you don't see them very often. Players were adopting the sideboard plan without really thinking about why and as a result TnN's power and metagame position began to decline. The transformation worked for Terry Soh because he was going to a relatively small tournament and he could metagame against the other players, most of whom had slower control decks, and take them by surprise. Once the strategy was known it was far less effective---the common sideboard cards were abandoned for more general answers to creatures, and the TnN players often hurt themselves by adopting the plan.

At 2005 Regionals I played White Weenie and I knew going in that TnN was a really bad matchup. I had to race their mana ramp or I just lost to the Mephitrike combo, with my only out being triple Awe Strike. Thanks to Terry Soh I didn't end up dropping a match to TnN because his strategy had been so widely adopted that players didn't have Mephitrike anymore and those who did sided it out against me for the transformation. Transforming works when you dodge crippling hate, but if you do it for no reason then you weaken your deck.

When to Transform

If you are going to have a transformational sideboard you need to commit to it. Twelve of Soh's sideboard cards are directly part of his plan, and Plow Under arguably qualifies as well. Even later in the season when the strategy fell out of favor, Soh was still playing seven beatsticks in his board. What this means is that you need to be certain that you will need to transform almost every game and that the opponent will fall for the change. It's very much a glass cannon strategy since it relies on your opponent dancing to your tune games 2-3. If they don't fall for it, you've made your deck worse for no reason and will lose.

Following the Invitational many control players adjusted to Soh's plan by keeping their sweepers post-board, where normally they were useless against Darksteel Colossus, and turning the matchup around completely. To avoid this type of pitfall, I have some rules for transforming:

1. Only transform your win condition.

If sideboard hate cards beat your specific win condition but not your strategy on the whole then a transformation is appropriate. In the Soh example Sowing Salt stalled the fast-ramp-into-fatties plan that made TnN a powerhouse but does nothing when you're just fetching basics to power out big beaters. The underlying ramp plan was still good even if it wasn't doing the most powerful thing possible anymore. Bribery was great against a small number of win conditions but worthless when you play many. You don't have enough space to completely change your deck, but you can change how it wins.

2. Only transform if you're not conceding other matchups.

Again from the Soh example, the transformation was great against Big Red, Mono-U Control, and Gifts Control, but worthless against White Weenie, a deck which saw a lot of play that Regionals. If you're certain that you'll be seeing a relatively small number of decks that attack your deck in a similar way then transforming is very effective. If it's more open then you need to be certain that your maindeck can carry you through the whole match since you won't have sideboard slots available to prepare for other decks.

3. Only transform if it complements your core.

If you're trying to completely reposition your deck through a transformation then you're likely to fail. The decks that can transform cleanly from combo to aggro or control are rare. You have to dedicate too much space to your core strategy to make it work and frequently that means that you don't have enough room to take out all these core elements for another style's core. It's possible to assume a controlling role in a matchup, but what I'm referring to is actually changing your deck entirely.

For example, I've seen Storm decks with transformations into Blue Moon fail because Storm's low land count and high fluff content doesn't play well with Blue Moon's answer-heavy plan and higher average mana cost. There just isn't enough space to bring in the answer density of Blue Moon and its win conditions. Conversely those decks that turn into UR Delver are far more successful because Delver of Secrets and Young Pyromancer like low land counts and lots of cantrips. Your maindeck plan was good, so you really don't want to completely abandon it.

Transforming Modern

The most successful transformation plan in Modern has been Amulet Bloom removing Hive Mind and some of its engine pieces for green creatures. The general plan of ramping your mana and tutoring for bombs stayed intact but didn't fail to Ghost Quarter or Slaughter Games. Combo decks in general have an easier time going for the transformation and more reason to do so. There's no reason to dramatically change Infect or Burn, nor is there enough space to do so. But Scapeshift is already pretty controlling and can take out the namesake combo for more control cards to make itself less vulnerable to Crumble to Dust and Aven Mindcensor.

On the other hand, Modern is so diverse that the actual utility of transforming may be quite low since the actual likelihood of hitting the hate you're trying to dodge is low. In other words, don't transform unless you must.

Preboarding

Preboarding is just what it sounds like, coming into a matchup with the sideboard cards you want for that matchup maindecked. I'm not talking about having some common sideboard cards in your starting 60---that's something else. I'm talking about having your starting configuration look exactly like how you would want your deck in games 2-3 against a specific matchup.

It's not just that you wouldn't change your maindeck, it's that you specifically included cards that beat a certain deck and not others. This would be Jund packing Ancient Grudge and Shatterstorm maindeck for Lantern Control and Affinity, or Death and Taxes with Rest in Peace and Spirit of the Labyrinth against UR Treasure Cruise Delver (which I'm guilty of). You almost never see this happen because players understand the rule regarding preboarding: Don't!

In normal Magic you never hit a given deck enough to justify playing cards specifically for that deck. You need to play less specialized cards so that your deck isn't full of dead cards in every matchup. However, sometimes when things go wrong in the format it is appropriate.

Metagaming and preboarding against Cruising Delver and Pod during winter 2014 was acceptable, as was preboarding against Eldrazi earlier this year (not that it did much good). You have to be reasonably certain you will hit your preboarded deck 50% of the time or more for it to be worth the percentages you're giving up against other decks. However, there are times when playing sideboard cards in your maindeck is a good call.

Maindeck Sideboard Cards

While you never want to game your maindeck against another deck, you can hedge your bets and sideboard cards that are more general in scope in your maindeck. You have to be careful about this because it's easy to dilute your maindeck too much by trying this strategy. Never take out core cards in order to do this. But if there's a deck you're struggling with, it may be appropriate to use flex slots to beat that deck or at least improve your matchup, as long as they're not completely dead elsewhere. Rest in Peace is exceptional against Grixis, but you'd only maindeck it as long as you're not hurt by it and it impacts a wide range of other decks enough to justify the inclusion maindeck (which it's right on the cusp of doing, by the way).

These cards need to hit a wide range of decks, compliment or at least not harm you maindeck strategy, and actually impact the deck you're targeting. Rather than just theorize about them, lets go through some examples.

Spellskite

I think this is understood but I want to be clear, there is no deck that plays Spellskite in the sideboard that doesn't also want a copy or two maindeck. If Spellskite is good in your deck, that shouldn't be dependent on your opponent's archetype.

Control and combo decks will sometimes bring Spellskite in against Infect or some combo decks but I maintain that this is wrong. Those archetypes have access to much more powerful and harder-to-answer cards than Spellskite that also can't be played around. Infect knows to play around the card using Wild Defiance, which against control and combo they'd be bringing in anyway either to speed up their clock or protect themselves from Lightning Bolt. Infect also boards in Nature's Claim to force their way through. What's the point of bringing in Spellskite in that scenario? The combo or control deck would be better off with a removal spell that gets around the counter-sideboard cards like Pyroclasm.

If combo decks like Ad Nauseam are your worry then Leyline of Sanctity is not only more powerful but also harder to answer. They tend to play more ways to answer a creature as opposed to other permanents. Players have used Skite against Scapeshift as well, but it's not that burdensome for that deck to simply overwhelm the Skite, which you can't do with Leyline.

As a dedicated hoser, Spellskite is pretty mediocre and easily answered, but as a maindeck card with added benefits it is exceptionally strong. Maindeck it to protect your creatures, and then play an extra copy or two for extra utility in the board.

Pithing Needle

This card does not see enough play. There is not a deck that it doesn't hit and there are many that it cripples. Naming fetchlands is not the worst and sometimes it's absolutely crippling, especially turn one with Gitaxian Probe. It also hits planeswalkers, manlands, Tron, Affinity, Lightning Storm, and Grim Lavamancer. The sheer utility of the card and its potential to be devastatingly effective against so many decks make it a safe and powerful maindeck inclusion if you have space. Not every deck will have the space for it, but any deck can run it and have it be effective. If you're looking to maindeck a hate card, I'd start with this one.

Relic of Progenitus

If you're going to maindeck graveyard hate this is the piece to use (I wouldn't consider Scavenging Ooze a sideboard card per se). Graveyard hate is rarely dead in Modern and is very good against many decks. Even when it isn't very effective it does cantrip, and while I don't think that's a reason to play a card by itself, it does make targeted hate more playable.

Qasali Pridemage

This is another card that sits in a lot of sideboards when it should be maindeck. There are much more powerful options for the board, but the flexibility and the fact that it attacks for three make it worthy of maindeck inclusion. Pridemage doesn't shine against any deck or accomplish anything very efficiently compared to other options, which is not what you want from your sideboard cards.

However its flexibility makes it an exceptional maindeck inclusion that also reduces the pressure on your sideboard to answer problematic artifacts or enchantments. If you have it in your board it should only be to bring in extra copies. Having a maindeck out to Worship and Ensnaring Bridge is powerful and not something you want to be without. The same goes for Reclamation Sage and Echoing Truth.

Worship

If you have creatures and are playing a removal-light deck, this card will win you the game. Even against control decks this can threaten to keep them from winning, especially combined with hexproof or indestructible. If you think you'll want it, you'll get quite a few free wins by building around it.

There's Always More to Learn

My list is not even close to exhaustive, but it should give you a jumping off point for considering other cards that currently sit in your sideboards but should be maindeck. Determining what cards you should use and whether a sideboard card should be maindeck is something else entirely, which I won't get into today. Rather, it's going to be included in next week's article, where I'll discuss the strategy known as The Elephant. Until then, if you have questions or other topics you want to discuss, you can always find me in the comments.

Stock Watch- Rattlechains

Posted on June 7, 2016June 6, 2016 by Ryan Overturf

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When Rattlechains was spoiled, I thought that given proper support the card looked excellent. As things turned out, spirits weren't well supported in Shadows Over Innistrad, and there was no obvious home for the card. In Minneapolis Saito went 12-3 with a deck happily featuring the full four copies, and last weekend in Atlanta Hugo Terra made the Top 8 of the Open with this list: