Throughout my experiences investing in the stock market, I’ve often reverted back to the age-old strategy of “buying what you know”.

In other words, with literally thousands of equities to choose from, it’s nearly impossible to have an opinion on every single one. Even CNBC personality Jim Cramer hesitates to provide his thoughts on some stocks – recently I heard him get stumped by an up-and-coming safety shoe and cowboy boot retailer known as Boot Barn.

Now, of course, it’s his full-time job to know about stocks. He’s paid to research them on a daily, if not hourly, basis, and he can certainly afford the time to do so. Especially when he’s faced with a stumper.

Many of us speculators aren’t pursuing the sport of MTG Finance full-time, however. There may even be more unique Magic: The Gathering cards than there are stocks traded across the NASDAQ and NYSE. Adding in foreign languages and foils, you very well may have more unique Magic cards than you have unique publicly traded companies worldwide. (Perhaps that would be a fun exercise for someone one day?)

So we combine the fact that there are a plethora of unique Magic cards and the notion that many of us are pursuing MTG Finance in our spare time, and we should come to this conclusion: we can't truly know the value and potential of every single card.

Now that I’ve got this premise established, this week I want to share some of the implications of this truth.

Don’t Expect To Catch Every Jump

This is a somewhat intuitive statement whose execution is far more elusive. Every day I check the MTG Stocks Interest page – frequently I find myself feeling regretful for not missing out the latest spike. Perfect hindsight always leads to regret. “Of course Mishra's Bauble is jumping! It’s so obvious now…” Sound familiar?

Or how about this one: “Why didn’t I buy into Nin, the Pain Artist when I read about her in the QS forums?? It’s such an obvious play on Tiny Leaders!”

It’s so easy to fall into this self-deprecating trap. And since I continue to berate myself even as I write this article, I can’t offer up much in terms of productive advice. Instead I’ll just re-state the facts and hope it resonates with you and me alike.

We cannot be an expert on every format and on every card. If you’ve got other obligations and a separate career, then it’s especially difficult to time your buys perfectly. And if you’re a Legacy enthusiast, you can’t expect to stay on top of every Standard trend. Likewise, if Tiny Leaders and Commander are your favorite formats, then knowing what fringe-playable Modern cards are spiking should not monopolize your focus.

Stick to what you know, and don’t fret when you miss an opportunity.

One thing I have managed to internalize is the fact that a new opportunity comes up almost every day. So today (Sunday) I may have missed on the Starter printing of Summer Bloom, which jumped 163%. But later this week I’m confident something else will jump. Maybe I’ll be on top of that one.

Trust the Experts

This is the necessary corollary that ties to the first section of this article. It is because we cannot anticipate every trend that we must rely on our network to outperform in MTG Finance. If you want to truly take advantage of opportunities outside of your area of expertise, you’ll need to stay engaged with those you respect for their knowledge of other areas.

For example, I admittedly do not have a deep understanding of Commander. I thoroughly enjoy the format and I have three different decks I like to play against friends. But as I battle against strangers at my LGS, I gradually realize my interpretation of the format is not universal. To me, Commander is a format where I can play all the fun cards I never get to enjoy when playing Legacy or Modern. This means I can pursue shenanigans such as Psychic Battle and Political Trickery.

It seems others do not follow this same train of thought. When playing blue, for example, Commander players tend to favor things like Force of Will and Time Warp, not to mention all the mana artifacts that enable acceleration towards Time Stretch.

Granted this isn’t a universally true statement – it’s merely my observation. But my perceptions are my reality. So from a financial standpoint, I know not to rely on myself for EDH analysis. After all, if it were up to me, Portcullis would be a $20 card.

Since Portcullis can be bought for twenty cents instead of twenty dollars, I choose to rely on the experts in the format when speculating.

This usually means our very own Jason Alt, but it also means I pay close attention to how our Insiders describe potential targets in the forums. If I rely on my own intuition, I’ll never get it right. There’s a reason I’m sitting on five or six copies of Koskun Falls scratching my head. The card just doesn’t get there. But where “there” is is beyond me. So I rely on the experts to buy into Commander targets.

And I have my “go-to” experts for other formats as well. Just like I know Jason is my Commander expert, I also know I can rely on Pi (an Insider) for knowledge of all the older, often obscure cards from sets like Legends and Arabian Nights.

In similar fashion I also know who to lean on for Vintage recommendations as well as graded Alpha stuff. I pay closest attention to Sealed Booster Boxes, Modern and Legacy singles, and there are numerous resources who can help with Standard.

Leverage Your Network

Now that you’ve recognized there are others in the community who focus on different areas of MTG Finance, how do you fully leverage them? In other words, how do you remain on top of the latest trends and make money using the information the experts provide?

Well, if you’re reading this article, you’ve already got a head start. Not because I am providing unique insights this week, but because it means you are a QS Insider. This means you have ready access to dozens of experienced MTG speculators in the QS forums.

The Single Card Discussion board is a priceless resource and a terrific place to read up on the latest buzz in MTG Finance. I highly recommend you read this board on a daily basis. After all, if you’re a day too late on some of these things you may completely miss the boat on a tremendous opportunity. (But don’t worry, there will be another tomorrow.)

Twitter is also a great way of obtaining the most up-to-date information. A ton of MTG financiers and speculators share their live observations of various events, metagames, and the like. And by following international players, you can ensure your feed is updated 24/7. Here's mine, for starters.

Rather than rattle off all the other social media venues for MTG Finance, let me just abbreviate by saying that you should stay as engaged as our time will allow. And if life is just a bit too busy at a given moment, then rest assured you’ll have plenty of opportunities to speculate when you return to the game.

I don’t see any end to speculation on the horizon.

Wrapping It Up

Tiny Leaders is one of the main reasons why I decided to write on this particular topic. A whole new format is taking shape, and players are eager to speculate left and right, myself included. I’ve already picked up a couple extra copies of Sygg, River Cutthroat because I love Dimir strategies and I recognize this is the only Dimir leader.

But, to be fair, I’m no Tiny Leaders expert. Perhaps no one is just yet, but I suspect a few will rise to the top soon enough. When that happens, pay close attention to what those speculators have to say. We can all buy into cards that involve converted mana costs three or less, but there’s no real guarantee such buys will be any good once the format matures.

Rather than speculate wildly, I’m going to recognize my lack of expertise in this format and pay close attention to what up-and-coming experts are saying.

Keep in mind the Tiny Leaders format hasn’t been “solved” yet. But when you’re limiting leaders to a fixed pool (far fewer than there are EDH Generals) and deck size to just fifty cards, then the number of Tier 1 strategies will be finite.

At that point, many players will slow their own creative shenanigans and begin to net-deck, especially if there are Tiny Leader tournaments where valuable prizes can be won. This is when the real profits can be made – by staying on top of the strategies that are rising to the top and watching for cards that are played over and over again.

And, by the way, Tiny Leaders gives us yet another reason to play Dual Lands. So even if you are in the camp that Legacy is a slowly dying format, rest assured there will be demand for the mana-fixing lands for years to come.

Happy brewing, and I hope to see you in the forums and on Twitter discussing the latest trends!

…

Sigbits

I was noticing some interesting trends the other day. Namely, the price gap between original foils and their corresponding Modern Masters foils. My hope was to find foil copies of cards I needed for my Modern deck to try and dodge price hits upon reprinting. Sadly, things aren’t always consistent. Here are some examples:

• Pact of Negation has been rallying significantly. Star City Games is sold out of non-foils: $24.99 for Future Sight copies and $19.99 for Modern Masters copies. But the price discrepancy in foils is what surprises me most – especially since the sets both use the same artwork! MMA copies are $29.99 while Future Sight foils will cost you $49.99!
• Then we have foil Sword of Fire and Ice, which follows an opposite trend! Darksteel foils are $79.99 while MMA foils are $129.99. That’s a significant premium, likely driven by the new artwork used in Modern Masters and the existence of the Judge Foil version using the old artwork.
• But not all new artworks are more desirable. Future Sight foil Tarmogoyf are in Power neighborhood, retailing for $799.99. Meanwhile the Modern Masters foils are $499.99, a full $300 cheaper! So things are not always so straight forward!