| Quiet Speculation

Adjusting Downward: March ’22 Metagame Analysis

Posted on April 8, 2022May 6, 2022 by David Ernenwein

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Welcome to a new series of articles for Insiders here on Quiet Speculation. This will be the companion article to my Modern Metagame Updates where I do the non-statistical analysis of the data that there's no room for in the data article. I'll be looking at what happened in March, why I think it happened, and then extrapolating on where the metagame is going. Hopefully this will help those looking to buy into Modern or simply provide context for where the card market is heading.

Eventually I intend to include graphs to help track the trends I'll be discussing. It won't be happening right away as this is monthly data, and a single data point is not a trend. We need at least three for that to be relevant and more to be valid. So for this month it'll just be March in a vacuum.

The Outlier's Story

The first subject is that outlier result. For UR Murktide to do well is not remotely surprising. It's never been below Tier 2 since arriving with Modern Horizons 2. However, this is the second time that it's been an outlier, which has never happened since I started keeping track of outliers. And frankly, if it had happened back-to-back, I'd be quite concerned. Given that the first time was in November and that in the intervening months Murktide's been Tier 2 a decent amount of the time, I'm confident saying that this is just a flux in the data.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

Keep in mind that the previous two best decks (Hammer Time and Grixis Shadow) were both impacted by the Lurrus ban. Murktide was not, which would lead to an increased metagame share. With them down, their old rivals can rise. Couple that with both Hammer and Shadow being two harder matchups and seeing less play and Murktide should have done better this month. However, I'd only expect that to push it to the top of Tier 1, not over it. This plus Murktide's history suggest something else is to blame here.

Popularity Contest

Ultimately, the answer is that UR Murktide is a very popular deck. However, leaving it at that is incorrect. If Murktide was merely a popular deck boosted by the nerfing of its peers, it would not have been an outlier 5 months ago. The fact of the matter is that there are two largely unrelated factors that played into March's anomaly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon's Rage Channeler

The first is that the Lurrus ban put many players off non-Murktide Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer decks. Murktide was the only deck which consistently played Ragavan and didn't play Lurrus. Yes, Ragavan does show up in any deck that plays red, but not consistently. Both Jund Saga and Grixis Shadow leaned on Lurrus for their late game, and without Lurrus, players have lost confidence in the decks. Which is absurd; Jund Saga has been falling off for months, while Shadow is doing perfectly fine in paper. The lists may not be optimized anymore, but the strategy itself is still strong.

However, players feel like they're weak enough to abandon. They're not just going to abandon Ragavan as a strategy. They've shelled out too much cash for that. Instead, they're shifting to the remaining Ragavan deck. Grixis Shadow's stock list did significantly overlap with Murktide's. The Jund players have it harder, so I'd expect fewer took this route. Consequently, Murktide ending up getting extra shares from disaffected Grixis players.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Delver of Secrets

The other factor is that Murktide is a tempo deck of the thresh variety, and those are generally very popular. See also Standard mono-Blue Tempo and Delver of Secrets in Legacy. However, these decks are deceptively hard to play. Players like winning with cheap threats, drawing cards, and countering spells. Few appreciate how hard it is to navigate a deck with a low threat count that never wants to play from behind. Consequently, many players will rush to said tempo decks without understanding how to play them.

Looking Ahead

Consequently, UR Murktide will fall off in April. It did last time and there's no indication that anything's changed. Indeed, there are already indications that it is overplayed and suffering. Last weekend, ManaTraders held a Modern tournament, and the most popular deck by far was UR Murktide. However, that didn't translate into a tournament win, and Murktide's conversion rate was quite poor. Meanwhile, at the NRG series 20K, Murktide barely showed up and those that did failed to perform. This will put players off the deck.

The lack of tournament results will likely be compounded by players returning to their old decks, particularly Grixis Shadow. There's nothing inherently wrong with the deck, it just took a hit and needs some rebuilding. That process is starting to bear fruit and I suspect many players will have their faith restored. There will also be those that just get frustrated and put the deck down for being too hard to play.

Opportunity Falters

However, I don't believe that downswing will translate into a noticeable price change. At least, that's how I'm reading the tea leaves. Murktide Regent has shown remarkable price stability since August, which I doubt will change. It's been hovering around $20 for most of its life with a recent spike into the mid-20's reflecting increased popularity. I'd anticipate a fall back toward old levels if everything plays out as expected. It's too useful in too many decks in Modern and Legacy for players to sell them off. The same goes for the other deck staples.

Ragavan, on the other hand, is a possibility, but it comes with caveats. Rags has shown a high degree of price instability since it was printed, and that's unlikely to stop. Depending on month and store, Rags can be anywhere between $70-$90. I don't know why this is happening, but I suspect that banning fears are playing a factor. Rags in banned in Legacy, it could happen in Modern. Thus, I've observed a lot of players buying Ragavan, playing for a while until Ragavan decks (the whole group) start doing well, and then selling them off in fear of an incoming ban.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathrite Shaman

I don't think that is likely to happen in the near future. However, Ragavan's power is close enough to Deathrite Shaman's that it's plausible. Players may panic-sell their Ragavans during April; they may not. What will happen is that the price will continue fluctuating regardless of the interpretation of the data. There's certainly on opportunity for arbitrage and profit playing the Ragavan market. But I'd be incredibly careful.

A Cascade of Value

The other headline for March was that both cascade decks (Cascade Crashers and Living End) were Tier 1 decks. This is significant as it's never happened before. However, it's also hardly surprising. Both were affected by the recent ban the same as Murktide, only more so. Grixis Shadow's combination of counterspells, discards, and a fast clock is the classic anti-combo recipe, giving it a decent matchup against both cascade decks. Shadow's displacement, even if it's temporary, was an opportunity for them to make a run.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shardless Agent

Living End has the additional advantage of being well positioned at the moment. It's a true combo deck, where Crashers is mostly fair. Crashers's biggest advantage is its consistency, which lets it reliably out-tempo and/or overwhelm less consistent decks. Living End actively disrupts opposing creature decks with its combo. And looking at the current tier list, the field is ripe for just that. UR Murktide is the only true counterspell deck in Composite Tier 1. Crashers as well as 4-Color Blink tend to only have Force of Negation maindeck. Additionally, graveyard hate is limited to what can be found off Urza's Saga. It was the right time for both decks.

The Unseen Giant

There is sometime deceptive about the data in this update. Taking each deck on its own gives the impression that Murktide is standing on its own as the clear best deck. In fact, the top decks for the past few months seem to stand alone above the rest of the metagame. Which is only partially true. It's not that any individual deck is misrepresented, but rather that my naming practices have separated out a deck that perhaps shouldn't be.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

The primary difference between 4-Color Blink and 4-Color Control is that the former runs Ephemerate and the latter doesn't. The lists tend to be otherwise indistinguishable. Playing Ephemerate does alter gameplay sufficiently to justify the distinction in my mind, but I get challenged on this decision constantly. And the challengers have a point, because if Blink and Control's shares were merged, then Blink would be the second-ranking deck online and would have made Tier 1 in paper.

If I were to then add in Tribal Elementals (a far more distinct deck that is nevertheless based on the same core of Omnath, Locus of Creation, Solitude, and Fury), then the archetype of Omnath moneypile suddenly outstrips nearly every other deck. This month it would rival Murktide's overall share and substantially changes the outlier tests. Consequently, Omnath is both the card and the deck to watch in the upcoming months.

The Market Checks

Having the mana to play all the best cards means that these decks have few weaknesses. Normally, that would lead to a deck seeing increasing metagame share and moving decisively up the tier list. That isn't happening with Omnath pile for two reasons.

The first is cost. The moniker "money pile" is well-deserved. A cheap 4-Color Blink deck costs $1500 in paper and $1100 online. Most hover around $2000. Elementals is in the same boat. Getting a good 4C Control list for $2000 would be quite a bargain, most are around $2500. That is far beyond the average player's budget and also far beyond the rental limits online. A deck can't put up numbers without players and a prohibitive cost prevents a deck attaining its potential metagame share in an open field. Though cost tends to be a non-issue for the best players. Part of what allows them to be "the best" is that Magic is quite high on their priorities list, yielding not just more practice time but a bigger TCG budget.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solitude

Speaking of the Omnath players, they're the second problem. They cannot decide on which configuration they want for their deck. Some deviation is to be expected for any deck and that will be worse for a multi-colored pile that can play anything. Why not run every pet card?

However, in this case, they can't decide whether Control or Blink is better. Every month, one of them does better than the other. In January, Blink outpaced Control online. In February, Control beat Blink. It's reversed again in March. This seesawing is probably necessary as the metagame changes, but it definitely puts players off and inhibits deck mastery.

Opportunity Persists

That being said, Omnath pile is the deck that I believe has the most growth potential within the metagame and consequently the most investment potential in Modern. Other decks have certain cards with growth potential should the deck take off, but Blink and Control are just piles of staples. Even should Omnath get banned (unlikely, but not impossible) all the rest will hold their prices. Should the deck start to take off, demand will push the prices of the key card (the elementals, namely) significantly higher.

Change in Coming

That said, there is a new set release at the end of the month and there are early indications of Modern staples. The allied shard Tri-lands are already confirmed, and that will improve the 4-Color decks by a measurable amount. Whether there will be any more impact is currently unknown, but it needs to be kept in mind.

Hocus Pocus: How to Cast a Spell

Posted on April 7, 2022April 7, 2022 by Andrew Villarrubia

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Magic would be pretty boring if nobody ever did anything but play lands. Luckily, lands often make mana, and mana lets us do one of the best things in Magic: cast spells! This is a pretty bulky subject, so this week I'll cover the basic steps of casting a spell. Next week I'll dive into some of the clever, weird, or downright bad things we can do with these rules.

For an extra look at the nitty-gritty of these rules, check out CR 601.

Step 1: Cut a Hole Put the Spell on the Stack

Players usually cast spells from their hands. However, several effects let us cast things from other zones. Haakon, Stromgald Scourge lets us cast Knight spells from the graveyard; Garruk's Horde lets us cast creature spells from the top of the library. Luckily, it doesn't matter where we want to cast the spell from. Step one is always moving it from wherever it is to the stack.

Step 2: Choices For the Spell - Modes, Alternate Costs, Etc.

This rule covers basically anything the game considers a "choice" (except targets; that's the next step). This is where we have to choose relevant modes for Cryptic Command. Want to cast Capsize with its additional buyback cost or evoke a Solitude? That also happens here!

We'll also choose any relevant values for {X} in this step. If we're casting a spell that has Phyrexian mana in its mana cost, this is where we determine if we want to pay with mana or life.

Step 3: Targetting Systems Engaged

Modes and alternative costs coming before targets makes a lot of sense. After all, if I cast a Cryptic Command, the chosen modes determine what can be targeted, or if anything must be targeted at all.

Critically, an object can only be the target of an object once for each instead of the word "target." For example, Dual Shot can't kill Grizzly Bears, since Shot can only target the Bears once. On the other hand, if I want to cast Decimate targeting my opponent's Myr Enforcer as the target creature and target artifact, I can do that. The ensuing double-destruction becomes relevant (and useful) if it's been, say, regenerated by a Welding Jar. Regeneration only saves permanents "the next time" they would be destroyed, not the next two times!

Step 4: Divide and Conquer

Short and to the point: this rule is the point of casting a spell where we divide things as we choose. Usually, this means distributing damage or counters amongst a spell's targets.

Of note, spells that let a player change targets don't let them change the distribution of the effect. Let's say I cast Magma Opus assigning 3 damage to Nessian Courser and 1 to Eager Cadet. My opponent Deflecting Swats the Opus. While they can change both targets of the Opus, they can't redistribute the damage - one target must take 3, and one target must take 1.

Step 5: Final Legality Check

After we've done everything above, the game checks one more time and asks, "Can you really cast this spell?" Sometimes, a proposed spell becomes illegal because of choices we've made during its announcement. For instance, everybody's favorite cat Lurrus of the Dream Den lets us cast a spell with mana value 2 or less from the graveyard. I can start to cast Stonecoil Serpent, but if I try to make {X} 3 or greater, this rule steps in and stops the cast. Since my Serpent's mana value is larger than 2, Lurrus no longer grants me permission to cast it.

If it turns out that a spell's proposal is illegal, the game rewinds to just before the announcement started. Any mana abilities are undone, and the spell goes back to the zone it was in before.

Step 6: It's Almost Time to Pay the Piper

If the spell survived the legality check, it's time to tally up our debts. This can include mana costs or alternate costs like pitching cards (March of Otherworldly Light) or sacrificing creatures (Village Rites). This step is also where cost increasing or decreasing effects come in. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, keep in mind that any of these increases or decreases don't actually affect the spell's mana value. That is, Colossus Hammer cast into an opponent's Thalia, Guardian of Thraben still has a mana value of 1.

When totaling up the spell's mana cost, apply any cost increases first, then any cost reductions. After that's done, Trinisphere steps in if it needs to. Even with Thalia in play, you still won't be paying more than 3 for that Hammer; Thalia bumps it up to 2, then Sphere to 3.

Importantly, once we're done figuring out the spell's cost in this step, it's "locked in." Nothing we do in the next two steps can affect what was determined here.

Step 7: Activating Mana Abilities

This is the last chance to activate mana abilities before we start making payments. Notably, the total cost must actually include a mana payment in order to activate mana abilities here. For instance, casting a Mishra's Bauble doesn't let you activate any mana abilities, because it doesn't require a mana payment.

Step 8: Actually Paying!

Finally, we get to wrap things up! We pay the total cost of the spell, which we determined in step 6. We can pay the total cost in any order - sacrifice the creature first, or pay the mana first. Unpayable costs can't be paid, which, yeah. Obviously. That's the first and second rule of tautology club.

Step 9: The Grand Finale

Once we've made it through all the other steps, effects that modify the spell as it is being cast (such as that of Yidris, Maelstrom Wielder) are applied, then the spell is at last cast. At this point, any abilities that trigger when a player casts a spell trigger and are put onto the stack.

Cleanup

Understanding the steps of casting a spell can be pretty important. While we didn't get to dive into too much "why" this time, join me next week for a look at some of the weird and wild predicaments we can encounter during the many steps of casting a spell.

If you have any specific situations you want to be explained (that don't involve Panglacial Wurm), feel free to find me on Twitter or our Insider Discord.

Until next time.

Question of the week: What's the cleverest thing you've ever done casting a spell?

The Best Thing To Ever Happen To Digital Magic: SpellTable

Posted on April 7, 2022April 7, 2022 by Joe Mauri

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

"Digital" Magic: The Gathering

When I first heard about SpellTable I thought "Oh this sounds great, I can't wait to play Magic remotely!" But then life happened. Throughout the last couple of years, I have had to move several times, switch jobs, and restructure my entire life. Finally, after what I hope is my final move for several years I have been able to partake in many hours of SpellTable. Was it worth the wait?

What Exactly Is SpellTable?

Well if you believe the headlines it's "Remote Magic Made Easy!" Using a webcam or smartphone SpellTable can recognize real paper cards played on your tabletop which you can click. Once selected a card appears in the right-hand margin for easier reading. There's also audio built-in but I have played with someone who used an index card and the camera to indicate choices made on their turn! Originally a fan project appealing to players unable to enjoy Magic during Covid quarantine, SpellTable was subsequently purchased by Wizards of the Coast.

What Does SpellTable Cost?

SpellTable is available to play for the astonishingly low price of FREE. Yes, you heard that right: really, truly, free. It is my opinion, among others, that Arena is one of the LEAST GENEROUS free-to-play digital card games, ever. With SpellTable, a better free Magic experience is now available. You can even use Moxfield and OBS to play without any physical cards. Yes, read that AGAIN. For absolutely ZERO DOLLARS you can play digital Magic with paper Magic players over the internet. Amazing!

What Can You Play On SpellTable?

Every. Format. Ever. Mic drop. Yes, because SpellTable is physical Magic: the Gathering, you can play pretty much every format. Want to play Archenemy or Planechase? You can do that! Want to play with any of the Un- sets? You can do that! Two-Headed Giant? Yep! Standard? Easily! Want to test Modern decks? No problem!

By and large, Commander is the vastly most popular format on SpellTable. There are about a dozen games up almost 24 hours a day. The number of players for all formats tends to swell during the weekend but I am pleasantly surprised with just how many people are playing even at crazy hours. Also, there are a lot of players from all over the world which I think is awesome.

What Is The Experience Like?

Let me blow your mind. It's great! You are basically playing paper Magic. Tables tend to be very social and there is a lot of latitude when playing anything not labeled as "competitive." Even in competitive games, there is a certain amount of leeway required for playing remotely. Most game lobbies suggest a numeric range for the approximate power level of your deck but many also include stipulations such as "no infinite combos," "no extra turns," or "no holds barred." If there are elements you don't want to see in your games simply add that fact to your game description.

Power Level? What The Heck?

The power level range is, theoretically, one through ten. The scale does a very poor job of approximating what decks should or should not be played at any given table though. I've never seen any tables that use decks at the one through three ratings or the ten rating. I've only seen the four rating used a few times. How powerful are decks at these levels? I generally assume decks are either merely stacks of cards and not much of a deck at the low levels, or a cEDH tuned ten out of ten. While there are plenty of games marked as competitive/cEDH, if you are not using 50% of the numbers on a scale, to me, that's a flawed scale. My advice is to play what you believe are your weaker decks unless the games are labeled as competitive. In that case, you should play your best deck. Gradually, you will get a very rough approximate feel for the power level of decks others are bringing to the table.

Still Confused On Power Level?

Essentially, the scale boils down to, I would say, three actual ratings. The first is decks with no real "wincon" or end game. Here, players just want to tap lands and cast spells. Most of the pre-con decks also fit here. These decks are a five or six on the typical SpellTable scale. Next up, are decks that have wincons and are trying to win, but are not completely competitive decks. They are either deliberately de-powered, or competitive decks in the making waiting to upgrade cards. These two decks typically fill the seven or eight spots on the scale. That leaves nine as cEDH or tournament experience decks.

To say that most players have very subjective ideas of deck power is one thing but to experience it is another. However, by and large, most tables are very friendly and will discuss power level pre-game to make sure everyone is approximately on the same page. It really is that simple. If you think your deck might be too powerful or too weak then ask the table if you can switch or if others would be willing. Most players are very accomodating on non-competitive tables. If you need a little more about having a Rule Zero conversation at a table, take a look at my article here.

This All Sounds Great! Are There Any Downsides?

Unfortunately, there are a couple of issues that SpellTable cannot overcome in the near term.

Space The Final Frontier

Number one, it requires a LOT of playing space. Some players may disagree with me on this and suggest that you can play on your normal desktop surface. While I've seen pictures of SpellTable setups that look compact, for me that's not nearly enough room and I cannot imagine I would be alone in this need.

My current setup is far from ideal, but the fact that I must have a camera suspended over a medium-sized table requires a fairly large footprint. Further, while you could theoretically have a wireless mouse, wireless keyboard, and wireless headset, a PC monitor likely needs to be nearby. That means your PC needs to be nearby. Remember that footprint I talked about? Don't forget any other accessories you may want within easy reach like decks, dice, tokens, and so on.

Lighting is also tremendously important. Too much light reflecting on cards can result in them being impossible to see both by your eyes and by SpellTable. Not enough light can cause the same. Again, without a dedicated space for this kind of thing, I'd say your results may vary considerably.

While it is unfortunate, I cannot imagine this kind of setup would be very accessible to absolutely everyone. The barriers to entry are not high, which is great. However, I cannot think everyone that plays Magic is enough of an enthusiast that they can devote so much space to a single hobby.

Theft Effects

Number two, while most cards work the same in person as remotely there are a significant number of cards that work quite a bit less well. I'm talking about cards that reveal information only to you such as Duress and cards that reveal AND steal like Villainous Wealth or Gonti Lord of Luxury.

Physically you can just pick the cards up and look at them, being careful not to show anyone else at the table. Remotely? It's not super practical. The one upside of this is that you are sure to get table talk for these types of decisions. Since Commander is intended to be a social game this can be a lot less of a drawback than suggested but for ultra purists or competitive players seeking practice, these issues could be deal-breakers.

For me, I compare this to the downsides of playing on Arena or MTGO. Both of those games approximate paper Magic but fail in many ways. The interfaces for both are lacking. The timer systems for both are not accurate to paper play as you can execute many things in real paper games flawlessly that you can't easily accomplish in digital, like infinite loops. Playing digitally offers no shortcuts for such situations. Add awkward priority systems to multiplayer for Commander and you have a less than stellar gameplay experience. That is on MTGO. There is no multiplayer on Arena and no Commander as we usually think of it. There is 1v1 Brawl if you count that experience, but it's lacking, to say the least. In my opinion, SpellTable easily trumps both of the current digital offerings by a wide margin, with many more upsides, and just a couple of corner cases where it's a little awkward to play.

Should I Try SpellTable?

Absolutely without any hesitation, yes. Do your best with whatever setup you can manage. If you have not played paper Magic in ages and you enjoy Commander do yourself a favor and try SpellTable out! It's the freest of free! And who knows, maybe I will bump into you in a game?

Have you tried SpellTable? How did you like it? Let me know your experience with it in the comments.

Real-world Flavor: Horror-Themed Quotes From the Legends Expansion

Posted on April 6, 2022April 6, 2022 by Francesco Spagnol

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Then flashed the living lightning from her eyes,
And screams of horror rend th’ affrighted skies.
Alexander Pope

When we consider cards with real-world flavor, Legends is by far the most represented set, containing 41 unique cards with flavor texts from real-world authors. We've dealt with a good number of them so far in this series, but not with all of them. Legends took inspiration from a multitude of different genres, so it's not easy to find a common flavor theme connecting all the cards.

Horror is an easy theme to pick up on if you study the cards in the set with real-world inspired flavor. 14 of the 41 cards with real-world flavor quotes in Legends are black cards. It's natural that those cards would feature frightening illustrations and flavor texts as a consequence. Today we'll take a look at some of those cards and their flavor choices.

Cosmic Horror

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cosmic Horror

Then flashed the living lightning from her eyes,
And screams of horror rend th’ affrighted skies.
Alexander Pope, The Rape of the Lock, 1702

In the early years of the game's development, many Magic cards were given generic names. Cosmic Horror is a prime example of this. The expression "cosmic horror" is so generic that it now refers to a whole subgenre of horror, both in literature and other media. It is often used as a synonym for "Lovecraftian horror,", both of which rely on the power of the unmentionable and the incomprehensible. Interestingly, there is no direct quotation from Lovecraft, neither here nor on other Magic cards.

Cosmic Horror is a beautiful card, and it lives up to its name. It was not easy to create art for a card with such an important name, but the illustration by Jesper Myrfors is appropriately horrific. As for the flavor text, it quotes a poem by Alexander Pope, The Rape of the Lock, a celebrated example of the mock-epic genre. The scene is that where the curl of the title is trimmed, and the "screams of horror" are the immediate reaction to such villainy. If you know the poem, this card gets really funny, as you can appreciate the distance between the tremendous image and the parodic text.

Headless Horseman

There was an error retrieving a chart for Headless Horseman

… The ghost rides forth to the scene of battle in nightly quest of his head …
he sometimes passes along the Hollow, like a midnight blast …
Washington Irving, The Legend of Sleepy Hollow, 1820

Where Cosmic Horror tapped into the essence of its namesake genre, Headless Horseman, on the other hand, makes use of a much more traditional kind of horror. It also continues the trend of cards with generic names. Some find this to be part of the charm of the old-school sets such as Legends. Wizards use generic names for cards very sparingly these days. Seeing it so prevalent here only adds to the nostalgic feelings of these cards.

First printed with the subtype Horsemen, it was later errated to be a Zombie Knight. Regardless of its creature type, it's still a mediocre card. As a 2/2 for three mana, it's almost a copy of Scathe Zombies, especially after the creature type changed. As we mentioned in the first article of this series, it's usually the most useless and unimpressive cards that receive the best flavor text. Headless Horseman is no exception.

the quotation comes from The Legend of Sleepy Hollow, the most famous gothic tale in English to feature such a monster. The original short story by American author Washington Irving has been retold and reimagined numerous times over the years. Even Disney made an appropriately creepy version of the story in 1949.

Hellfire

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hellfire

High on a throne of royal state …
insatiate to pursue vain war with heav'n.
John Milton, Paradise Lost, 1667

Paradise Lost by John Milton is one of the most renowned works ever quoted on a Magic card. Hellfire, a black mass creature removal sorcery feels like an appropriate home for the text. In the right deck, it can often work as a one-sided Wrath of God, though with a high price in damage dealt to the caster. Power with a price is what we've come to expect from black cards, and this is one of the earliest examples.

The quote here comes from the very beginning of Book 2. The subject of the sentence is no less than Satan himself. His name is omitted with an ellipsis, but the art by Pete Venters doesn't fail to give some clues about the identity of the figure. After all, who else might sit on a throne and be insatiable to pursue a war with heaven?

Horror of Horrors

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horror of Horrors

And a horror of outer darkness after,
And dust returneth to dust again.
Adam Lindsay Gordon, The Swimmer, 1870

Horror of Horrors, is another oddly generic name. This time, it does not refer to any famous creature. Instead, it's a weird enchantment that costs five mana and lets you regenerate black creatures by sacrificing Swamps. It was reprinted in Ninth Edition and has never seen much play.

The quote, is a couple of lines from The Swimmer, a poem by Australian poet Adam Lindsay Gordon. It's totally out of context and doesn't really make sense on the card. The only link I could see is between the concept of "dust to dust" and the ability to regenerate creatures in exchange for Swamps.

Shimian Night Stalker

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shimian Night Stalker

'Tis now the very witching time of night,
When churchyards yawn and hell itself breathes out
Contagion to this world.
William Shakespeare, Hamlet, 1603

Of the cards we are analyzing today, Shimian Night Stalker is one of my personal favorites. From the memorable art (once more by Jesper Myrfors) to the exceptional quote by Shakespeare, it's one of Legends' little flavor gems. Of course, from a gameplay perspective, the card is a failure. A costly 4/4 creature, its damage redirection ability has niche use at best. It's also oddly out of place on a black card. Damage prevention is typically a white ability.

The quote is from Hamlet's Act 3, Scene 2. It is among the most gothic speeches in the play. Hamlet himself is the speaker, reflecting on the lateness of the night. It's the time when "churchyards yawn and hell itself breathes out", i.e. midnight. The imagery is very suggestive and goes well with the weird creature illustrated by Jesper Myrfors.

The Abyss

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Abyss

An immense river of oblivion is sweeping us away into a nameless abyss.
Ernest Renan, Souvenirs d'Enfance et de Jeunesse, 1883

Let's close this installment with the famous card The Abyss. By far the most expensive card of this series, The Abyss is on the reserved list and has always maintained a high price tag. It's a four mana enchantment which destroys a creature at the beginning of each player's upkeep. The card is at its best when played in a creature-less deck, or one with animable lands such as Mishra's Factory. Pox decks are a great example.

The flavor text is an excerpt from one of French philosopher Ernest Renan's last works. In the English-speaking world, it's known as Recollections of My Youth. The sentence quoted is a little vague, but interesting. It nicely complements the illustration by Pete Venters.

Conclusion

Legends contains many cards with real-world flavor texts. today we looked at a subset of them sharing a horror theme. What do you think of these quotes compared to similar quotes we saw in the Poe and Coleridge articles? Looking at the subset of these cards which share a horror theme is just one of the many possible approaches to analyzing all the real-world flavor texts in the set. In the next installments, we will analyze more cards from the set. What other common threads or patterns do you think we will find? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter!

The Post-Lurrus World: March ’22 Metagame Update

Posted on April 5, 2022April 4, 2022 by David Ernenwein

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

While banning Lurrus wasn't exactly burdensome for any deck, the rules of engagement in Modern have been changed sufficiently that it still represents a clean break from the old metagame. No infinite grinding with Mishra's Bauble means decks have to compete on more traditional card advantage axes. For better or worse, depending on the deck.

The ban also means that I had to throw out the first week of data. Again, the pre-ban metagame is an entirely different reality to the current one and isn't comparable. Thus, the data set is smaller than February's, and rather significantly so; consequently, there are some oddities that might not have made it through otherwise.

Outlier Alert!

March's data is further affected by an outlier. UR Murktide outstripped the rest of the field by a significant margin. It was larger online than in paper, but not by much. When I did my statistical tests, online was very clearly over the line in outlier territory. Paper Murktide was closer to the line thanks to the spread of the paper data. Regardless, both results were not used when I was making the tiers. Their data is still reported and they're in their correct place on the tiers but didn't impact the overall analysis.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

I also feel compelled to remind everyone that this is not a Tier 0 situation. Outliers never qualify for that distinction just for being statistical outliers. True Tier 0 decks like Hogaak or Eldrazi Winter blow the rest of the competition by far wider margins and do so month after month. March 2022 is just a blip that will most likely subside. Remain calm!

March Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck “should” produce on MTGO. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough.” In March the average population was 4.63 setting the Tier 3 cutoff at 5 decks, which is well below the yearly average but makes sense given the short month and the outlier.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lurrus of the Dream-Den

Tier 3 begins with decks posting 5 results. Then we go one standard deviation above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff for Tier 2. The STdev was 6.40, which means that means Tier 3 runs to 12 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then one above for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 13 results and runs to 20. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 21 decks are required. This, again, is quite low for post-MH2 Modern, but given the everything about March it's nothing to read into.

The MTGO Tier Data

I mentioned that March's data was down significantly thanks to all the data that got thrown out. January had 502 decks, February had 436 decks, and March only hit 356. But for the ban, March would have at least surpassed February between the Wizards and independent events that closed on or before March 7. I had to throw out a few more league-type events because they began before the ban and didn't change their decks before finishing.

Despite that, there was still a high amount of diversity present. The overall amount of unique decks were down to 68, February's 82 but that's not too shabby under the circumstances. Normally, a banning will bring out the brews and Modern will get pretty wild the following month. It's a little subdued this time since Lurrus wasn't as fundamentally integral as Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath was. That said, more decks made the tier list this time, 16 compared to February's 15, which is good given the low population.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	46	12.92
Cascade Crashers	27	7.58
Hammer Time	24	6.74
4-Color Blink	23	6.46
Living End	22	6.18
Tier 2
Amulet Titan	17	4.78
Yawgmoth	15	4.21
UW Control	13	3.65
Tier 3
Burn	12	3.37
MG Tron	12	3.37
Grixis Shadow	12	3.37
Dredge	11	3.09
4-Color Control	11	3.09
Tribal Elementals	8	2.25
Titanshift	5	1.40
Goblins	5	1.40

Despite taking a hit, Hammer Time is still a Tier 1 deck. Just not format-definingly so, and I think that's good. Hopefully it lasts. What's particularly interesting this month is both cascade decks making Tier 1. Living End and Cascade Crashers have not been in the same tier since...(checks through the archive)...I don't think ever. Odd that they suddenly would right after Lurrus is banned.

The Paper Tier Data

The paper tiers are calculated the same way as the MTGO tier, just with different data. While more paper events are represented in the data, they rarely report more than the Top 8 (sometimes less). However, that doesn't mean that the population is lower. Thanks to a deluge of events in March, the paper population is much higher than online with 506 recorded decks, beating January's online numbers. Paper really is back. The number of unique decks is also much higher with 83. I don't have many months of data to draw from, but I hypothesize that paper should always be more diverse than online.

Paper's average decks were 5.55, meaning the starting point is 6 decks. The STDev is 7.81, so Tier 3 runs from 6 to 14 decks. Tier 2 begins with 15 decks and runs to 23, and Tier 1 requires 24 decks. I still have no idea how representative of "normal" paper Magic these stats are.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	51	10.08
UW Control	34	6.72
Cascade Crashers	33	6.52
Amulet Titan	32	6.32
Burn	29	5.73
Grixis Shadow	24	4.74
Tier 2
Hammer Time	21	4.15
Living End	20	3.95
4-Color Control	19	3.75
Yawgmoth	17	3.36
Tier 3
Tribal Elementals	13	2.57
8-Cast	11	2.17
Ponza	10	1.98
MG Tron	9	1.78
Esper Reanimator	9	1.78
Jund	8	1.58
4-Color Creativity	8	1.58
Merfolk	8	1.58
Mono-Red Moon	7	1.38
Hardened Scales	7	1.38
Goblins	6	1.19
Hollowvine	6	1.19
Izzet Prowess	6	1.19
Eldrazi Tron	6	1.19

It continues to perplex me how different the paper results are from MTGO. The difference in playerbase size as well the regional effect certainly play in, but I'd expect that any regional inclinations would balance out and produce a result more similar to MTGO. That has consistently not happened so far. I have some theories, but they're just theories. I'll be investigating this difference further.

March Power Rankings

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a deck that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8’s. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects their metagame potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crashing Footfalls

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points for record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5) and Challenges are scored 3 points for Top 8, 2 for Top 16, 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players. There were three 4 points events in February and no 5 pointers.

The MTGO Power Tier

As with the population numbers, points in March were down from February, from 779 to 668. Fewer events, fewer points. The points drop-off follows the population decrease well enough that it is explanatory. Despite some very large Preliminaries trying to make up the differential

The average points were 8.66. Therefore 9 points makes Tier 3. The STDev was 12.46, which again is on the lower end of normal. Thus add 13 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 22 points. Tier 2 starts with 23 points and runs to 36. Tier 1 requires at least 37 points. There was a lot of adjustment from population inside the tiers this month. Also, Goblins fell off the power charts, replaced with Mono-Red Prowess and Eldrazi Tron.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	88	13.17
Cascade Crashers	58	8.68
4-Color Blink	48	7.19
Hammer Time	44	6.59
Living End	44	6.59
Tier 2
Amulet Titan	32	4.79
Yawgmoth	25	3.74
Grixis Shadow	24	3.59
UW Control	23	3.65
Tier 3
Burn	21	3.14
MG Tron	21	3.14
Tribal Elementals	21	3.14
Dredge	19	2.84
4-Color Control	18	2.69
Titanshift	10	1.50
Mono-Red Prowess	10	1.50
Eldrazi Tron	9	1.35

In an unusual move, no tier shrunk this month. Usually Tier 2 gets squeezed by the brackets, but not this time. There's no explanation.

The Paper Power Tiers

Unlike with population, the paper power data works differently than the equivalent MTGO data. Again, the data is usually limited to Top 8 lists, even for big events. Not that I know how big most events are, that doesn't always get reported. In other cases, decks are missing. SCG Con Indianapolis had a Modern 5ks and numerous smaller events, but decks were missing from the Top 32 and the smaller events reported anywhere from 5 to 21 decks for no obvious reason. Applying the MTGO point system just doesn't work when I don't know how many points to award.

Thus, I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. That way I'm being internally consistent with the paper results. When there's a Modern Pro Tour again (THEY'RE BACK!!!) it would qualify for 3 points, as would Grand Prix or whatever the GP equivalent will be. The calculations are the same as with online results. The SCG 5k and one of the side events awarded 2 points. The Hunter Burton Memorial Open was this month, and it has always been treated like an SCG Open or GP, so it awarded 3 points. A side event from the HBMO awarded 2.

The average points were 7.41. Therefore 8 points makes Tier 3. The STDev was 10.62, thus add 11 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 19 points. Tier 2 starts with 20 points and runs to 31. Tier 1 requires at least 32 points. There was actually quite a bit of movement in and out of Tier 2 with paper.

Deck Name	Total #	Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide	67	9.93
Amulet Titan	50	7.41
UW Control	43	6.37
Burn	41	6.07
Cascade Crashers	40	5.93
Living End	32	4.74
Tier 2
Grixis Shadow	31	4.59
Hammer Time	26	3.85
4-Color Control	26	3.85
Yawgmoth	26	3.85
Tier 3
Tribal Elementals	15	2.22
8-Cast	15	2.22
Ponza	12	1.63
Esper Reanimator	12	1.78
4-Color Creativity	10	1.48
Goblins	10	1.48
MG Tron	9	1.33
Jund	9	1.33
Merfolk	9	1.33
Izzet Breach Combo	8	1.19
Hardened Scales	8	1.19
UW Urzablade	8	1.19
Eldrazi Tron	8	1.19

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. There is no Wins-Above-Replacement metric for Magic, and I'm not certain that one could be credibly devised. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual. Using the power rankings certainly helps and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Which tracks, but also means that the top tier doesn't move much between population and power, and obscures whether they really earned their position.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results. However, as a general rule decks which place above the baseline average are overperforming and vice versa. How far above or below that average determines how "justified" a decks position on the power tiers are. Decks well above baseline are therefore undervalued while decks well below baseline are very popular but aren't necessarily good.

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far-off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from average, the more a deck under- or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite.

I'll begin with the average for MTGO:

Deck Name	Average Points	Power Tier
Tribal Elementals	2.63	3
Mono-Red Prowess	2.50	3
Eldrazi Tron	2.50	3
Cascade Crashers	2.15	1
4-Color Blink	2.09	1
Living End	2.00	1
Grixis Shadow	2.00	2
Titanshift	2.00	3
UR Murktide	1.91	1
Amulet Titan	1.88	2
Hammer Time	1.83	1
UW Control	1.77	2
Burn	1.75	3
MG Tron	1.75	3
Baseline	1.74
Dredge	1.73	3
Yawgmoth	1.67	2
4-Color Control	1.64	3

Cascade Crashers is the highest performing Tier 1 deck and therefore the March 2022 MTGO deck of the month. The averages are extremely high thanks to the effect of the big events. Most of the decks at the top of the chart only appeared in the Challenges, Super Qualifiers, and Showcase Challenge. They didn't have many Preliminary results to temper their numbers.

Onto the paper averages:

Deck Name	Average Power	Power Tier
Goblins	1.67	3
Living End	1.60	1
Izzet Breach Combo	1.60	3
UW Urzablade	1.60	3
Amulet Titan	1.56	1
Yawgmoth	1.53	2
Baseline	1.41
Burn	1.41	1
4-Color Control	1.37	2
8-Cast	1.36	3
Esper Reanimator	1.33	3
Eldrazi Tron	1.33	3
UR Murktide	1.31	1
Grixis Shadow	1.29	2
UW Control	1.26	1
4-Color Creativity	1.25	3
Hammer Time	1.24	2
Cascade Crashers	1.21	1
Tribal Elementals	1.15	3
Hardened Scales	1.14	3
Jund	1.13	3
Merfolk	1.13	3
Ponza	1.10	3
MG Tron	1.00	3

I think it's significant that both the paper and online metagames have a cascade deck as the best performer. The fact that Living End beat Cascade Crashers in paper is surprising. The metagame doesn't look more favorable on its face, suggesting that this preferences at work. That Crashers didn't perform well in paper may be instructive, but it's worth saying that it didn't show up at SCG Indianapolis.

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without the big paper events. I tried. So, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results for the final placement.

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug; it's a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.

Deck Name	Paper Population Tier	Paper Power Tier	Average Paper Tier	MTGO Population Tier	MTGO Power Tier	Average MTGO Tier	Overall Tier
UR Murktide	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Cascade Crashers	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
Hammer Time	2	2	2	1	1	1	1.5
Amulet Titan	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.5
UW Control	1	1	1	2	2	2	1.5
Living End	2	2	2	1	1	1	1.5
Grixis Shadow	1	2	1.5	3	2	2.5	2
Burn	1	1	1	3	3	3	2
Yawgmoth	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
4-Color Blink	N/A	N/A	N/A	1	1	1	2.5
4-Color Control	2	2	2	3	3	3	2.5
Tribal Elementals	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Mono-Green Tron	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Jund	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
Goblins	3	3	3	3	N/A	3.5	3.25
Eldrazi Tron	3	3	3	N/A	3	3.5	3.25
Mono-Red Moon	3	N/A	3.5	3	3	3	3.25
4-Color Creativity	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.5
Ponza	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.5
Esper Reanimator	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.5
Hardened Scales	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.5
8-Cast	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.5
Merfolk	3	3	3	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.5
Dredge	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.5
Titanshift	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3	3	3.5
UW Urzablade	N/A	3	3.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.75
Izzet Prowess	3	N/A	3.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.75
Mono-Red Prowess	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	3	3.5	3.75
Izzet Breach Combo	N/A	3	3.5	N/A	N/A	N/A	3.75

Murktide and Crashers are the only fully Tier 1 decks in March to the surprise of no-one who's been paying attention so far. 4-Color Blink not appearing at all on the paper standings drops its aggregate place significantly, but that happened Online last month, so maybe it's just lagging behind. We'll see.

An Evolving Modern

The format's composition looks broadly similar to the old one. It doesn't appear that Lurrus decks were uniquely keeping any decks out, though it was unequivocally key to many decks' strategies. Grixis Shadow will attest to that. However, the question of what it all means and where this is heading is a question for another time. Specifically, this Friday when I'll do exactly that for all Quiet Speculation Insiders. Stay tuned!

Adam Plays Magic: Esper Control Alt Delete!

Posted on April 5, 2022April 4, 2022 by Adam Cohen

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

This week on Adam Plays Magic, we're diving into Standard with Esper Control. With Standard having a relatively small card pool, the goal for this build is simply to "play the good cards". No fancy aristocrat synergies, tribal mechanics, or frills here. Just pure, unadulterated rate on rares and mythics.

"Esper" might also be a bit of a misnomer, considering the core of the deck is very WB. In fact, the only blue spell in your main deck is Kaito Shizuki and the only blue card in your sideboard is a single Disdainful Stroke. Thanks to the Pathways and Slowlands, it's extremely easy to afford a splash color without hampering your ability to cast your other spells.

Under the Hood

Esper's primary game plan is to resolve The Wandering Emperor, Lolth, Spider Queen, other planeswalkers to ride their card advantage to victory. It is supported by various wrath effects and spot removal like Doomskar and March of Otherworldly Light to keep its planeswalkers alive and well.

The objective is fairly straight forward, although control strategies like this are only as good as they are well-prepared. For example, this build is tuned with the mirror in mind, which is why there are multiple copies of Duress in the main deck. If I end up playing against mostly creature decks, that call will backfire. Similarly, I have multiple Portable Holes in the main deck, which line up poorly against decks playing Abrade and Prismari Command, but are phenomenal against Mono-White Aggro.

I don't believe the build I played was well-positioned against the five random decks we played against on the Arena Ladder, but that may not be representative of a tournament setting. My recommendation is not to play this exact 75. Instead, look at the playable spells you have access to and the decks seeing upticks in play at the time of your event, then modify your mainboard and sideboard accordingly.

What I'd Change

As mentioned above, I'd reconsider the number of Holes and Duresses. I'm also not sold on Reckoner Bankbuster in the main deck, or at least not at 3 copies. Standard is full of card advantage spells like Memory Deluge and Behold the Multiverse. If the goal is to keep something lower on the curve, Siphon Insight slots in well too. These may be better options for the main deck while reserving some sideboard space for Bankbuster.

Speaking of the sideboard, I think I'd prefer cards that are more targeted for specific matchups, rather than doubling down on general-use cards from the main deck. More counterspells like Negate or additional copies of Disdainful Stroke may be helpful in control and midrange matchups. Check for Traps may be pricier, but does cast a wider net than Duress. [card[Fracture[/card] can pinpoint the Runes deck and planeswalker-heavy strategies. If I'm concerned about opposing Wandering Emperors, Graveyard Tresspasser lines up very well and ward punishes opponents for looking at it crooked.

Another direction the deck can go is with a slight red splash to allow for Valki, God of Lies and Fable of the Mirror-Breaker. These cards are flexible and hit well above their weight class. We could also double down on the heavy black game plan for Invoke Despair. These high-powered haymakers grant the ability stabilize and turn the corner in ways the base-Esper deck struggles to.

The Deck

Esper Control

Spells

3 Doomskar

2 Duress

1 Emeria's Call

1 Infernal Grasp

1 Soul Shatter

3 March of Otherworldly Light

4 Vanishing Verse

Planeswalkers

1 Sorin the Mirthless

4 Kaito Shizuki

4 The Wandering Emperor

2 Lolth, Spider Queen

Creatures

1 Henrika Domnathi

Enchantments

2 The Meathook Massacre

Artifacts

3 Portable Hole

3 Reckoner Bankbuster

Lands

4 Brightclimb Pathway

4 Clearwater Pathway

3 Deserted Beach

1 Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire

2 Hengegate Pathway

2 Hive of the Eye Tyrant

4 Shattered Sanctum

2 Shipwreck Marsh

1 Plains

1 Swamp

1 Takenuma, Abandoned Mire

Sideboard

3 Archon of Emeria

1 Check for Traps

1 Disdainful Stroke

1 Doomskar

1 Duress

2 Farewell

1 Henrika Domnathi

1 Lolth, Spider Queen

3 Ray of Enfeeblement

1 Reckoner Bankbuster

End Step

And just like that, we've wrapped up another week! If you have any questions, comments, or deck suggestions, feel free to leave a comment here or tweet me at @AdamECohen. Don't forget to like the video and subscribe to the YouTube channel. As always, thanks for watching!

Driving Focus on New OP Speculation

Posted on April 4, 2022April 4, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

After a couple years of floundering, uncertainty, and general discontent, high level paper Magic play is returning with a flourish! You can check out the announcement on WOTC’s site, here.

With multiple levels of competitive play, there’s a spot for all players to test their skills at Magic—from the regional championship qualifiers at their local game shops, all the way up to the World Championship event. It’s reminiscent of the old system in multiple ways, and that is very much a good thing.

Naturally, this is very exciting news for players. I suspect many preliminary events will evolve around Standard, Pioneer, and possibly Modern. There is once again a reason to actually build and maintain an arsenal of recently printed Magic cards! That means there’s once again hope that a little speculation on certain cards could lead to profits and an overall cost reduction for the game as a whole.

However, before you go rushing around to various online retailers speculating that every card that shows up in a Pioneer decklist will increase in price, take a moment to read through these three important reminders to help guide your buying.

Tip #1: Prioritize the Staples & Multi-format Allstars

I have not read up on the Modern or Legacy metagames lately, so I can’t describe any decklists or strategies that sreally stand out. What I can do, however, is check out data from MTG Stocks to investigate the most played cards in each of those formats. The most popular cards should also see the largest bump in demand and cards that show up on both lists are even more likely to climb due to a sudden surge in demand.

Interestingly enough, there aren’t many cards that appear on both Pioneer’s and Modern’s top 20 list. Without researching anything else, I can tell the two formats must provide very different experiences when playing. That said, there are a couple of key cards I want to hone in on.

First and foremost: lands. Lands lands lands. Namely, mana-fixing, two-colored lands are primary themes across both formats. Fetch Lands dominate in Modern, but in Pioneer you don’t have that option. Shock Lands are available in both formats and show up on both Top 20 lists. Pathways are also viable options, more so in Pioneer than Modern. There are also an array of Fast Lands that may be worth closer examination.

If you want to target some specific cards, I’d keep an eye on Steam Vents, Blood Crypt, Branchloft Pathway, and Botanical Sanctum.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Branchloft Pathway

Another card that caught my eye was Thoughtseize, which shows up in the Top 20 of both Modern and Pioneer lists. (It’s also the number 25 most played card in Legacy, though I don’t think Legacy demand is going to move the needle here).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

This card has always been a staple no matter what format it’s legal in, so demand for the one mana discard spell is sure to increase as more players get back into paper Magic.

The last thing I’ll highlight is that some of these popular cards have fewer and/or older printings. These in particular may provide greater price upside, even if they aren’t the most played cards in a format. For example, Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer was printed relatively recently but only once at mythic rare, and its Modern demand has driven its price up toward $80. I see Fury is from the same set, also one of the most played Modern cards, yet sells for $27.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury

Granted, Fury may not be as versatile as Ragavan, but that is a large price differential for two similarly played cards.

A cheaper consideration may be Bonecrusher Giant:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bonecrusher Giant

Other than appearing on The List, Throne of Eldraine is this card’s only printing. While it may be just a buck right now, this card proved to be dominant during its time in Standard and it could see a wave of new demand in Pioneer. Throne of Eldraine isn’t that old, but give it a couple years. If this one dodges reprint, it could climb steadily over that time.

Tip #2: Reprint Risk

Speaking of reprints, I was trying to browse the 50 most played Modern cards to find older cards that have never been reprinted. Guess what? There really aren’t any.

Sure, you could argue Teferi, Time Raveler has virtually never been reprinted because the Secret Lair version does little to add to supply. You could also argue that Fury and Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer were never reprinted. I suppose this is true. But Ragavan and Fury were just printed last year, in Modern Horizons 2, so it’s too soon for there to have been a reprint yet. Teferi was printed in War of the Spark, which is a little bit older (released May 2019), but that still not a ton of elapsed time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Time Raveler

The reality is, most format staples are getting the reprint treatment nowadays. That brings me to my second tip: when speculating on staples, be aware of the reprint risk. I’d highly recommend keeping a very narrow horizon on any cards you are buying for potential financial gain. There are frankly a ton of reprint avenues that Wizards has been tapping into in recent years, effectively taking some of that lucrative secondary market for themselves.

Of course that’s their right—it’s their game, after all. I’m not complaining about the reprints, and it does really make the game less expensive for players. It just means the traditional method of speculation on Modern staples is no longer so foolproof.

I’m not saying that Teferi, Time Raveler is a poor speculative target. It’s probably one of my favorites. But it is highly vulnerable to a reprint. As the card ages, it will see an increase in price as more players sleeve up copies for competitive paper Magic. And then one day it’ll show up in some sort of Masters set, or Commander product, or something else, and it’ll halve in price.

Until then, though, I think there’s some money to be made here. Just don’t buy a stack of cards and throw them in a shoebox for a few years—that strategy may not be nearly as lucrative as it once was.

Tip #3: A Rising Tide Lifts All Ships

I’ve discussed this concept multiple times in the past, so I’ll keep this section relatively brief. The basic concept is that, as card prices climb, it inflates the market capitalization of the Magic secondary market. This means player collections naturally rise in price, giving them more purchasing power (i.e. more value for trading).

While many will use this newfound value to trade into tournament staples for the new organized play system, others will instead trade their cards in for Commander staples, Old School favorites, or even Legacy cards. For example, imagine if Teferi, Time Raveler appreciated from $20 to $50 over the next couple years. A playset could suddenly be traded toward a heavily played, Revised Plateau. That could be tempting.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plateau

Players who are still cracking booster packs of Modern Horizons 2 may be delighted to open a Ragavan, nearing $100 in price. They may choose to trade it in for Commander cards they’ve been wanting. Remember, the Reserved List is still a thing, and the idea of converting value from modern-day cards into collectibles that can never be reprinted is an attractive notion to some.

Then you can factor in the fact that large, in-person Magic events are probably making a comeback. That gives players a convenient opportunity to cash in some of their cards. If card prices climb due to newfound demand—as many are predicting—then in person events will enable players to trade up for the more expensive staples they’ve been eyeing. While the days of trading in a playset of a Standard staple for a piece of Power are long gone (years ago, a set of Jace, the Mind Sculptors could be traded in for a piece of HP Unlimited Power), one could imagine a world where a Pioneer card set could get you a Dual Land. Or maybe even a Mox Diamond or a Gaea's Cradle. To some, this may be a very attractive proposition.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

For this reason, even if you don’t care at all about Pioneer or Modern, you should still be excited for the new Organized Play announcement. Whenever there’s more interest and demand for paper cards, it bodes well for the secondary market as a whole. It may take longer for the effect to trickle up toward Reserved List staples, but it is likely to happen eventually. Unlike newer, reprintable cards, Reserved List cards can be thrown in a closet for a few years for financial reward (it’s one of the things I like most about collecting older cards!). If you’re a passive collector like myself, this could be the best of both worlds.

Wrapping It Up

I’m very excited about the new Organized Play announcement from Wizards of the Coast. The opportunity for players all around the world to compete in person for real cash prizes is very healthy for Magic because it drives up demand for singles. When singles are worth more, then booster packs are more desirable to open. When people open more booster packs, it sells more product for Wizards. In the end, everyone wins.

This is why I expect card prices to climb in the coming months, especially on Pioneer and Modern staples that see the most play. I leveraged MTG Stocks for my list of hot cards, but there are probably other sources with some valuable data. I’d encourage you to tap into those other resources and develop your own strategy for cards to acquire.

My advice is to focus on cards with multi-format demand, and if possible, find cards that haven’t been reprinted a ton. Staples from Modern Horizons and Modern Horizons 2 may be worth focus. Teferi, Time Raveler seems well-positioned. Thoughtseize is a permanent staple in every format. And, of course, lands are always great pickups—especially Shock Lands, Pathways, and Fast Lands.

My only caution is that a narrow time horizon may be required for some of these plays to dodge reprint. Granted, some cards are more likely to avoid near-term reprint than others, and that should be taken into consideration. But Wizards has shown their proclivity for reprinting cards these days, so you can’t just throw cards in a shoebox for a few years and expect every staple to make you money. Diversification can help reduce risk.

Lastly, don’t forget that the rising tide will eventually lift all ships. If you prefer to deal in longer time horizons and don’t want to bother following metagame evolution, you could do a lot worse than to trade your tournament staples into Reserved List Commander cards. Chances are, others will be doing the same thing, meaning prices are likely to continue climbing over time.

No matter how you play the recent news, times should be bright for Magic in the near future. I look forward to a new wave of interest, new players, and new demand as the greatest game ever approaches its third decade of existence!

Playing Tempo: Hacking Into Pauper Faeries

Posted on April 1, 2022April 1, 2022 by Paul Comeau

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

When my local game store announced they were starting monthly Pauper events, I quickly dove into metagame reports and my commons box to figure out what I wanted to play. No other deck in the format appealed to me quite as much as Dimir Faeries. Tempo has long been my favorite archetype in any format, and Faeries has traditionally been one of the best decks of the archetype, if not the best deck in various formats over the years.

From dominating its era of Standard to being a mainstay of the old Extended format, Faeries has made a name for itself. Even without signature rare cards like Bitterblossom and Mutavault allowed in the mix, Faeries is still a heavy hitter in Pauper thanks to its workhorse:

The power of Spellstutter Sprite is its versatility. A cheap counterspell, an evasive threat, or a surprise blocker, Spellstutter can shape or turn the tide of any game. The one-drop Faerie Seer teams up well with Spellstutter, allowing it to level up what it can counter. Seer also sets up your draws and provides an early clock. While these are the two cards giving the deck its name, the rest of the creatures typically found in the deck are notable partly because they aren't Faeries.

Non-Faerie Creatures in Dimir Faeries

The Faeries list typically plays around 18 creatures. In addition to Sprites and Seers, that includes:

3 Ninja of the Deep Hours
2-3 Thorn of the Black Rose
2 Gurmag Angler
4 Augur of Bolas

Ninja of the Deep Hours: Early Clock and Card Advantage

Ninja of the Deep Hours plays great with a team of faeries. It represents a source of card advantage and a better clock than either Spellstutter or Seer. Returning either of those cards to hand via ninjutsu, and allowing them to be played again, makes their value go that much further.

Faeries is a mana-hungry deck. It doesn't just want to play threats on its own turn. It also wants to hold up mana to react with countermagic and removal spells on its opponent's turn. The weakness of Ninja is when it gets stranded in your hand. Casting it for its full cost, and not its ninjutsu cost, runs cross-purpose to what the deck is trying to accomplish.

Thorn of the Black Rose: Mid- to Late-Game Card Advantage

Where Ninja always feels bad to cast for four mana, sinking that amount into Thorn of the Black Rose has an opposite effect.

Thorn, like the Ninja, is a repeated source of card advantage, if you're The Monarch. Where you want to be ninjutsu-ing in your Ninjas in the early game, Thorn ideally comes down in the mid- to late-game, when you've run your opponent low on cards in hand that could potentially answer it. It also blocks very well on the ground, allowing you to hold down the fort while your faeries attack in the air.

Gurmag Angler: The Finisher

With all the cheap creatures and interaction in the faeries deck, the graveyard gets filled quickly. And such a stocked graveyard in turn enables cheap Gurmag Anglers. The dream is to back the big fish with countermagic until it's able to enter the red zone. It's not hard to close out a game with Gurmag once ahead.

Augur of Bolas: The Odd One Out

A non-faerie that doesn't attack well feels like a weird include for this deck. Add that it can miss on netting a card some percentage of the time, and I'm not a huge fan. But is there something better? To me, one of the strengths of the Faeries deck is playing the tempo strategy. If we lean into that, a card I've had great success with in Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Limited quickly springs to mind:

Moon-Circuit Hacker plays well into the Faeries tempo plan. It ninjutsus for only one mana, letting pilots connect on turn two and immediately replay their one-drop post-combat. In later turns, Hacker can be cheated in while sparing precious interaction mana for the opponent's next turn. Its hardcast mana value of two also makes it less likely to get stuck in hand the way Ninja of the Deep Hours can in lieu of an attacker.

Incorporating Moon-Circuit Hacker into Faeries

If we're going to play Moon-Circuit Hacker alongside Deep Hours, it means we're planning on ninjutsu-ing as early as possible. It feels natural to add more one-drops to the deck and ensure we're able to enact our game plan. With that in mind, I included a full four Faerie Seers in my list, as well as another one-drop that supports the strategy:

Assuming it doesn't immediately die to removal, Changeling Outcast being an unblockable creature guarantees getting through to activate our ninjas on turn two. It also has added value in stealthily being a faerie, improving our Spellstutter Sprites. This is the list I played at my local game store's Monthly Pauper event:

Dimir Faeries - Tabletop Gaming Center Monthly Pauper: 8th Place

Creatures

4 Faerie Seer

1 Changeling Outcast

4 Spellstutter Sprite

3 Moon-Circuit Hacker

3 Ninja of the Deep Hours

2 Thorn of the Black Rose

2 Gurmag Angler

Spells

4 Preordain

3 Brainstorm

4 Counterspell

4 Cast Down

1 Devour Flesh

1 Suffocating Fumes

4 Snuff Out

Lands

4 Ice Tunnel

2 Ash Barrens

2 Evolving Wilds

10 Island

2 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Annul

2 Dispel

3 Hydroblast

2 Sea Sprite

2 Chainer's Edict

2 Suffocating Fumes

2 Relic of Progenitus

What Went Right

Going for a more tempo-oriented approach led to some very explosive draws. Hacker plus one-drop in the opening forced opponents into interacting early lest I get ahead on cards. Being able to cast Hacker for two in a pinch was also good.

What Went Wrong

Out of a field of 22 players, I scraped together a 3-2 record. My last round opponent generously conceded game three in the face of my board position when we went to time. Games where I didn't draw or play my early-game threats on time were uphill battles. That's certainly one of the advantages of Augur over Hacker. Augur can come down in the mid to late game and still try to help you dig for answers or card selection spells. Hacker is a little less exciting played to an empty board when you and the opponent are in topdeck mode.

Playing extra x/1's also made the deck soft to Electrickery and Suffocating Fumes. It was important to hold up countermagic to hedge against those or risk getting blown out. Makeshift Munitions from the Affinity and Boros decks was another must-counter that could not be interacted with once it resolved.

The biggest mistakes in this build felt like the absence of Echoing Decay and other interaction to generate value. Pauper is a very value-oriented format. Every card needs to either generate card advantage or add some other incremental value to the board (treasure, clues, etc.). The lack of Decay in the 75, or Echoing Truth and Reaping the Graves in the sideboard, made it difficult to fight the value plays other decks brought to the table.

Changes Going Forward

I want to continue experimenting with this list for a little longer before reverting to the stock build. I definitely need Decay and the other cards mentioned above somewhere in the list. Six Ninjas feel like a good number, but I might opt for a four-two split favoring Hacker over Deep Hours. As I explained, the drawbacks of Hacker are very real. Still, there are fewer chances of it getting stuck in your hand, and it contributes to some of the best openings the deck can produce, so it feels worth the risk.

I had Sea Sprites in my sideboard for the red matchups, but they proved more cute than practical. Those will likely get cut for Reaping and Truth. I've seen a few lists with Okiba-Gang Shinobi in the sideboard and might try one of those as well.

Pauper Is Great Right Now

If you enjoy competitive constructed Magic, I think Pauper is the best constructed format to play right now. Post-bans, there are a number of viable decks, and a ton of interaction available, making every game exciting. The gameplay feels like the best parts of Vintage, Legacy, and Modern, without the price tags involved in those formats.

What do you think? Are you enjoying Pauper? What changes would you make to this list to keep playing ninjas? I would love to hear from fellow Pauper fans in the comments or on Twitter.

Buying Magic Cards On eBay? Save Money With These Strategies

Posted on April 1, 2022May 1, 2022 by Joe Mauri

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

I remember my first mini-score on eBay, a playset of 4x Blazing Archon for $2.71 shipped. Way back then they were selling for around $4 each shipped so I was shocked when I won the auction. Deals like that still exist on eBay every single day and I am going to share my approach to getting great savings while avoiding potential mishaps.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blazing Archon

But First, Buyer Beware!

While eBay has great potential there are also pitfalls. This is extremely important to understand and is why some are reluctant to use the site. If time is a factor you may regret how long it takes to dig to avoid potential problems and find deals. In this case, I suggest sourcing cards elsewhere. However, if you are willing to search, research, and bide your time, you can find some phenomenal deals. How do you determine risky ventures versus steals? Feedback is step number one.

Deep Dive The Feedback

I know what you're thinking: of course check the feedback! But outside of briefly looking at their overall score, do you really check? I like to break down seller feedback by month and see what their recent sales are like, then go back through the year. It's easy to have zero negative feedback for a reasonable seller with a notable caveat. If a seller is making thousands of sales per year, they're a vendor. Over the course of that many sales, they're bound to have an issue or two come up at some point.

It's a lot less likely you as a buyer are going to get much of a deal from a vendor like that. In general, the best deals are going to come not from Magic vendors but from general sellers or private parties who have one set of cards to sell, ever. Ideally, they have zero feedback regarding Magic at all. I'll talk a little more about this later.

Low Or No Feedback With Great Cards

What if a seller has very little feedback or it's a new account? In my experience, avoid. Again, this is why feedback is so important. While it is possible that someone makes a brand new eBay account in 2022 and lists their Power 9 or dual lands with zero feedback, it's extremely unlikely. My advice here is to only purchase high-end cards from massively reputable sellers. There are too many fake cards and fake accounts to do otherwise. Things that look too good to be true are exactly that. If you are interested in high-end cards only do business in person where you can physically inspect them before you buy. eBay is just not that place.

For Deals Avoid Stores

Too many sellers today operate as "stores". That means the price they have listed is the price they are willing to accept and not one penny less. Unless I have a tournament coming up and need a physical card in my hands I am unwilling to pay anywhere near the market price for a single card. In terms of speculation, if I can buy singles for 15% off TCGlow that is the price point that makes me interested. Due to the auction nature of many sales on eBay, it's possible to get these low prices all the time. The more "store like" a seller is, though, the less likely they will have auctions. Checking the feedback, however, can give you clues to how often a seller accepts best offers and what their general pricing looks like. If sellers are accepting best offers all the time, I'm also interested because it shows they are willing to negotiate.

Quantity Is A Quality All Its Own

Don't forget to check the volume of their sales. I've talked to sellers who have not adjusted prices on their cards from when they posted them months ago and are merely relisting them automatically. If you can connect the dots for them as to why their sales have tanked sometimes they will re-evaluate their position.

So What Should I Target?

As mentioned, high-end cards are way too risky. I primarily look for underpriced playables and entire collections or lots. Ideally, you are either placing low bids on large numbers of auction listings or you are scooping up discount collections from sellers that are not primarily Magic vendors.

Differentiating Legitimate Intact Collections Vs Bulk

Here is where we come back to scrutinizing the feedback of a seller who has some Magic product listed. Let's say they have dozens of sales for clothing, DVDs, maybe some action figures, but zero Magic feedback. Great! They are either selling their personal collection or they picked up cards at a yard sale etc. They see the cards as potential money but not hard dollars. This can be hugely advantageous.

Even if they are not a Magic vendor you still need to scrutinize their feedback though. What you do NOT want to see is a history of a bunch of recent Magic singles. In most cases, these were all the valuable cards which means whatever is leftover tends to be bulk. If the price is way too high, I like to watch the listing anyways and when it doesn't sell I message the seller and let them know I'm interested in buying. If we cannot agree on a price, well, on to the next seller.

I've purchased a ton of Magic collections and written about it too. Every collection that made its way to me through eBay turned out to be an organic set of cards rather than bulk because of the rules I follow. It's easy to pay too much chasing value from collections that simply does not exist. The most important eBay-centric rules for buying collections are not buying from Magic vendors and not paying too much more than bulk rates. For me, collection buying has been the highest ROI of any venture and I encourage it as a primary way of building either a personal collection or sales inventory.

Everything Is Negotiable

I've mentioned it already, but use the messaging feature on eBay! About half of the sellers I have talked to agreed to some form of discount when I bought in quantity. Even if they do not agree with my opening offer I get counter-offered all the time. There's little disadvantage to sending a message with an offer. The classic phrase "the worst they can say is no," is true. Once you hear "No," move on to another listing. Very few sellers ever change their minds and it is a waste of time to continue pursuing a non-opportunity. I have wasted time doing so, and you don't have to. I've followed listings from sellers for up to a year to see them not move cards they have listed at 500% of market value. Read that again. Five hundred percent of market. No amount of pleading, price comparison, or analysis can reach certain sellers. People that want to sell, will sell. It's that simple.

Bid Often But Don't Bid Early

I follow a lot of auctions for cards I want. If my schedule allows I will throw down my best offer when the countdown hits about ten seconds or so. Give your highest and best offer and you might be pleasantly surprised. This takes a fair amount of time if you're following dozens of auctions so your best time-saving method is to find someone with a large number of auctions that are all closing one after another so you can bid on several in a row. If time is more of a factor you can check out auctions that are closing soon and bid on anything that strikes your fancy. In both cases, if I do win I'm often getting huge discounts.

There is almost no purpose to bidding early on an auction. In thousands of auctions, I have won exactly three with an "early" bid. The reason I put in these early bids was that I knew I would not be able to watch the auction close in real-time. The time it takes to click and put in a bid would have been better spent checking another opportunity most of the time. Bidding early also has a human element regarding sunk costs and it encourages human beings to chase after an auction when they see a "you have been outbid" message. Resist this urge, there are plenty of other opportunities out there!

Revised vs Unlimited vs Fourth Edition

I'm giving away a "secret" here. I have scored many Unlimited cards for Revised card prices or used Fourth Edition to get a lower price. It's surprising how often Magic vendors mistake these three editions. I am not claiming malice or deception at all here. Much of the time they are listing "down" instead of listing "up". If I had one Unlimited Swords to Plowshares for every time I paid for a Revised one, well, I'd have exactly three. Get familiar with these three editions, and recognize the differences between them. Then use that knowledge to your advantage! Remember, non-Magic sellers have no idea what they are listing a lot of the time. They are not trying to charge Unlimited prices for their 4th Edition cards, they just do not know any better. If you can diplomatically help them understand the mistake a lot of the time a seller will work with you on price.

Want Free Shipping? Here's One Way

Obviously, you can save on shipping by bundling your purchases but there's a way to pay $0 for shipping. Search for auctions that allow local pickup! When you pick up the cards yourself you get to see them firsthand to accurately account for condition, and maybe even get a sneak peek at inventory that's not yet listed. eBay Terms of Service remind you to be careful meeting people outside of eBay, but that has more to do with not stiffing eBay out of their fees. I'm not suggesting you break the ToS, far from it. They offer this search methodology and I will never feel bad for using it. Purchasing additional items from a seller that are not listed on eBay is perfectly fine. Primarily this is useful for buying collections or lots where the savings in shipping can be worth the cost in gas and time. I've found some pretty cool stuff that isn't even Magic-related this way as well.

Is eBay For Everyone?

No, eBay is absolutely not for everyone. You can get scammed on eBay if you're not careful. You can also waste piles of time and money for no gain. Fortunately, I have had more good experiences than bad by being careful and investing a lot of time into my purchases. Also, most sellers on eBay are friendly and willing to fix issues. I have received numerous discounts after purchasing cards that came to me in the wrong condition, wrong edition, or missing one card out of twenty. In almost every case the seller made it right, and I got an even better deal! To me, the occasional minor inconvenience has been well worth the savings.

How has your experience with purchasing Magic on eBay gone? What's the best score? Let me know in the comments.

Follow These 10 Rules For Choosing The Right Commander

Posted on March 31, 2022March 31, 2022 by Joe Mauri

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Whether it is a momentary flash of inspiration, watching another deck operate, a new set release or seeing an old card for the first time, there are many motivations for building a new Commander deck. So far I've talked about some of the nuts and bolts of deck design here, as well as my own personal spin on Commander philosophy here, and have even written about specific decks such as this one. What we will be discussing today is how to arrive at the right commander for the right deck.

Dos and Don'ts

Every rule is bifurcated into a do and a don't. Why? Because building a deck for Commander is most often about hitting a moving target of sorts. You are attempting to balance a wild mixture of variables like fun factor, originality, uniqueness, power, and budget. No one formula can take you to your final destination without a long journey. It is this journey that we call "playing" that will refine both the deck and the commander.

Do Pick A Unique Theme and Subtheme

Hazezon Tamar is a classic commander from Legends. He's an obvious pick for a token based deck and can generate an extremely high number of bodies as the game progresses. Green, red and white all have many effects that naturally boost the effectiveness of Hazezon like Parallel Lives, Anointed Procession and Doubling Season. However to differentiate my deck from a pure token deck I added a Warrior subtheme with cards like Lovisa Coldeyes, Moraug, Fury of Akoum and Ogre Battledriver. Over time I shifted the deck more from tokens into Warriors and it has become a tribal deck.

Eventually I noticed other subthemes starting to develop like trample, double strike and haste. Now I have a much clearer focus for cards that fit the deck in the future so I know if they are a Hazezon Tamar card or not. There are few cards that generate as many Warriors per mana as Hazezon Tamar and it's always a great feeling to cast in virtually any situation. These are both dead giveaways that Hazezon is the right commander for the Warrior deck. Sorry Najeela, the Blade-Blossom!

Don't Use The Same Generic Base Cards

There are a pile of universally good tribal cards like Morophon, the Boundless and other Changelings that make a five color tribal deck possible even if few actual examples of that tribe have been printed. However, the problem with this line of deck building is that you have the same 30-40 base cards and just rotate in a handful of other cards. In effect you're playing the same deck over and over again. That cannot be good for originality, replayability, or fun factor.

Much like staple cards, these filler cards and Commanders can be over relied upon to fill holes in a deck. Forcing a deck builder to come up with imaginative solutions for shortfalls in card selection can often be the point where creativity shines through and you really make a unique deck. If you surround a commander with the same supporting cards as other decks how does that legitimize playing that particular commander over any other? The answer is it does not.

Do Try Variations On A Theme

Slivers are definitely a very heavily played Commander deck. Once a new player discovers Slivers it's a good bet that they will consider building a Sliver deck at some point. However, how many players playtest a Sliver deck with different commanders? Sometimes the solution to a problem with power level, deck consistency or fun factor is just the commander and not the other 99 cards. All four of these Sliver commanders make sense but not every one of them will make sense for your specific group. Obviously more creature based wincons enjoy Hivelord and Legion as commander while more combo oriented versions lean on Overlord and Queen. Each has its own merits for a deck and your local meta.

Don't Be Inflexible

According to EDREC about half of the Sliver decks reported there use either Overlord or The First Sliver as commander and more Sliver decks use Morophon than Sliver Legion for the Commander. I can understand a budgetary variable when it comes to Sliver Queen who can be unaffordable for many, however, most of the other Sliver commanders are around the same price with Overlord being more expensive but not unreachable.

The fact is Overlord is probably the best overall Sliver commander by a decent margin. What that tells me is that you can more easily depower your deck by just switching your commander. Rather than starting your deck building with "If I'm building Slivers I *must* use Sliver Overlord," consider choosing Hivelord or Legion and seeing how they play instead. If you find that your deck is not powerful enough for your group, you can always upgrade your deck by upgrading your commander.

Do Remember The Old

Anyone know the oldest commander in the Top 50 of the EDREC 100? It's Zur the Enchanter from Coldsnap in 2006. A very powerful and potentially unfair card, Zur is now competing with many new cards. Even inside of the top 100, there are few older commanders represented. Massive new print runs are giving players a lot of choice in terms of exactly what a commander can do for a deck. This is distinctly different from the original battlecruiser nature of Elder Dragon Highlander where your commander was a big creature with a minor upside rather than a combo piece or engine. Again, this is not so much about power level as it is about getting creative where older cards are concerned. Limitations can build creative leaps whereas completely synergistic choices generate a formulaic and static outcome.

Don't Forget The New

Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty introduced us to several new potential commanders. Each of them plays completely differently and has a very unique color identity. In particular Isshin, Two Heavens as One seems to be enjoying massive play right now. Sometimes perfecting a deck means trying something new as a variation of a theme or completely discarding a poor theme for something that simply works better. I found that the best way to complete my Brion Stoutarm deck was to actually transform it into a Minsc, Beloved Ranger deck. I could only do this when AFR released, so don't forget to always be on the lookout for new commanders that better fit your themes!

Do Lean Into Inspiration

If you fall down a rabbit hole when looking at Tatsunari, Toad Rider imagining what a Sultai Toad Enchantment drain deck looks like, throw a first draft of the deck together. Play the deck! It will either reinforce your original inspiration and let you know where you need more of something or it will show you what is wrong with your thinking. In either case, reform your idea and try again until you've nailed the feeling for the deck and the commander to go with it.

Don't Copy, Remix

There's no harm in checking out decks on EDREC, MTGDecks or any of dozens of Magic sites. As I've mentioned before it's great to get a second opinion and see if there are any cards or commanders you may have missed that are simply too good for your deck. One must be careful though, not to just follow others without making your own build decisions. When you end up playing someone else's version of a deck you are doing yourself a disservice on several fronts. Their local metagame is likely different and the play style of the original builder might clash with your own, so you may end up spending money on cards you don't find particularly fun to play.

Do Let The Commander Choose The Deck

Your commander is the single most important card for your deck. It does more than simply define what cards are allowed in the deck, it should be the top guiding principle behind what your deck seeks to do, how it does it, and why. There are over 1,000 different options now, so if you are not feeling excited every time you cast it you need to ask yourself why you are still using that same commander.

Don't Let The Deck Choose The Commander

I've played some variations of Oona, Queen of the Fae as mono-Swamp decks. That is to say even though my commander is hybrid blue black, I only include Swamps. I've taken this idea to a more absurd level by playing five color commanders with only Swamps to allow me to run better mana rocks, i.e. all the various signets. These decks are effectively mono black but *technically* not.

Most of the time the decks feature about the same 80-90 cards with only minor variations. I did this for a variety of reasons, one of which was to confuse my opponents, but also to make a point about the format. Essentially, if my commander was a soulless requirement that needed to be fulfilled to access the other 99, well, I could fulfill that "requirement" many ways, but still do the exact same things anyway.

These Guys

Obviously Golos has been banned for good reason, however, Kenrith and Sisay are starting to look like Golos replacements, and not in a good way. Commanders that let you play "good stuff" will always be a part of the game, but I would argue that this is not what really makes the format fun and worth playing. If you are considering these types of commanders maybe it's a sign that your deck idea is not refined enough, and with a little more focus you could find a more fun direction with an even better commander.

What are your primary criteria for selecting a commander? Let us know in the comments!

Policy Evolution Sage: “Combat?” and Its Ambiguities

Posted on March 31, 2022March 31, 2022 by Andrew Villarrubia

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

What's a "Policy"?

Policy manages how judges handle problems at tournaments, basically. Those problems can range from "my opponent missed a trigger" to "hey someone is drunk and angry and about to fight their opponent."

I think about policy a lot. Unlike the Magic Comprehensive Rules, policy isn't intended to cover every situation that could possibly come up. Otherwise, the Magic Infraction Procedure Guide would be thousands of pages long. Nobody wants that. Instead, policy aims to cover situations most likely to come up. It then gives latitude to the Head Judge of an event to make judgment calls if they need to.

This week, I want to talk a bit about the current combat shortcut and how it got to where it is now.

"Combat?" Policy in the Early Times

Many moons ago, back in June 2009, the Magic Tournament Rules added a new shortcut. This shortcut, like many others, intended to protect the nonactive player above all else. In the early dark days, there was a lot of "gotcha" Magic. A player would do something to try to hoodwink their opponent, and judges would say "Yep, that happens!" because tournament policy hadn't stopped this sort of thing yet. A huge amount of early entries in the Magic Tournament Rules and Magic Infraction Procedure Guide were designed specifically to cut off these gotcha situations.

I present to you, in all its glory, the first "combat?" shortcut introduced to the Magic Tournament Rules, effective 1 Jul 2009.

A statement such as "I'm ready for combat" or "Declare attackers?" offers to keep passing priority until an opponent has priority in the Beginning of Combat step. Opponents are assumed to be acting then unless they specify otherwise.
Magic Tournament Rules, 1 Jul 2009

Seems straightforward, right? Basically, this protects the nonactive player. If the active player says "go to combat" and the nonactive player says "Cool, Lightning Bolt" your guy, the game is still in the beginning of combat step. The active player can't cast a Ball Lightning and attack with it since we're no longer in a main phase.

For years, this combat shortcut lived in harmony. Then, everything changed when Cesar Segovia wanted to attack.

The Combat Heard 'Round the World

February 2017. Pro Tour Aether Revolt (Standard). Mardu Vehicles takes six of the top 8 spots in a dominant performance. But somehow, that isn't the major takeaway from the weekend.

Round 8, Cesar Segovia vs Thien Gnuyen. This video should jump to the correct timestamp. If not, join me at 5:15. I've tried to transcribe it as best I can.

5:15 - Cesar taps his Weldfast Engineer to try to crew Heart of Kiran.
5:31 - Thien asks, "If he goes to combat, can he still crew?"
5:41 - Thien says, "Uh, he-he declared combat and he's trying to crew [points at Weldfast Engineer, then at Heart of Kiran] with that."
5:44 - Table judge (TG) says, "Okay, so, is it correct you declared combat?" Cesar says, "Yeah. I say combat."
TG: "Yeah"
Cesar: "Yes, and I don't, I try to [points from Weldfast Engineer to Heart of Kiran]"
TG: "And then you crew with it? Okay, that's not allowed. Before you're declaring combat means that you want to declare your attackers, is how the shortcut works. If you did not crew your vehicle, our policy is that you cannot crew your vehicle after you ask for combat. If you want to do an effect before attacking, you have to announce that before mentioning combat."
Cesar: "And I can't do that crew?"
TG:" You cannot crew, no."
Cesar: "But I, eh... I have trigger."
Thien: "Well he missed the trigger."
Cesar: "No no, I only say combat..."
Thien: "Sorry."
Cesar: "Because beginning of combat [muddled]"

At this point, Marshall Sutcliffe and Luis Scott-Vargas take over vocals a bit.

And then... we have a gap.

Judges are working at length to figure out what the right call is here. The table judge, a Level 3 (L3), confers with another L3. They go and get a Spanish-speaking L3 to make sure Cesar is perfectly understood. After the Spanish-speaking judge speaks with Cesar, Cesar appeals the ruling to the Head Judge of Pro Tour Aether Revolt, Toby Elliott. Toby is the final authority on what becomes written policy. He is the be all, end all of what the Magic Infraction Procedure Guide says.

At this point, this specific shortcut policy has been in place for about 8 years, right? How could it go wrong?

Oh. It Goes Wrong Like This.

21:30 - Marshal Sutcliffe pulls Head Judge Toby Elliott into the coverage booth to talk about the call.

21:45 - Toby: "Sure, so, we have a default short in Magic where a lot of strange shenanigans can happen around the combat phase. And you can create a lot of ambiguity there by saying things like "Combat?" and does that mean you're in combat or you're declaring attackers? So we have a rule that says, if you say "combat?" you are passing priority at the beginning of combat and if the opponent passes priority back, then you are ready to declare attackers. And this one was actually even more interesting because [Cesar] has a trigger which triggers at the start of combat, but is targeted, which means that once he - if he passes priority, he's missed the trigger. So, um, what he actually wanted to do, he couldn't do the way he intended to because he wanted to give +2/+0 to the Heart of Kiran, which means he has to activate Heart of Kiran before he goes anywhere near combat. Then the trigger can happen, he gives it to the Heart of Kiran, as, because it's a creature at that time. Um, but, [Cesar] didn't actually do that. He just went to combat. His opponent, we made sure his opponent explicitly - [Cesar] went to combat, paused, [Thien] explicitly passed back, and at that point our default is that you are in declare attackers."

Swift Reconfiguration

The day after the incident in question, Scott Larabee (the Wizards of the Coast half of tournament policy) posted a "Statement On the Round 8 Feature Match Ruling." In short, it cited the current-at-the-time Magic Tournament Rules policy, but said this shortcut would be examined further after Pro Tour Aether Revolt.

This Too Shall Pass

After almost a decade, The Powers That Be reevaluated the old combat shortcut. In April 2017 it changed:

If the active player passes priority during their first main phase, the non-active player is assumed to be acting in beginning of combat unless they are affecting how or whether a beginning of combat ability triggers. However, if the non-active player takes no action, the active player has priority at the beginning of combat. Beginning of combat triggered abilities (even ones that target) may be announced after any non-active player action has resolved.
Magic Tournament Rules

Toby wrote a fantastic blog post about "How to Think About the New Combat Shortcut;" it covers more than I possibly could. After all, he wrote this new shortcut.

Cleanup

For any of my tournament players out there: read this! Read anything else in the policy vat! It's beneficial to understand how policy got to its current form. Back in the day, instead of the "Thoughtseize fix" and a Warning for Hidden Card Error, it used to be a Game Loss for Drawing Extra Cards. Understanding why rules like this change over time can provide a deeper understanding of tournament rules as a whole.

That's it for this week, friends. Want to understand more (or argue) about tournament policy? Find me on Twitter or our Insider Discord.

See you next time, space cowboy.

Black Cards to Pull from Bulk

Posted on March 30, 2022March 29, 2022 by David Schumann

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Introduction

The intention of this series is to highlight cards one may find while digging through bulk. Each installment focuses on a different color of bulk cards. I covered gold, colorless, and white cards previously.

Pricing Standards

To keep our list manageable, I'm restricting it to some of the best sub-$5 finds in each color according to TCGPlayer mid price. I have found that understanding the reason for a card's value is extremely beneficial in evaluating other cards and their potential, and have included a bit about each card.

Note: As in previous installments, this list isn't in any particular order.

The List

1. Deadly Dispute

It's not often we find an in-print Standard common sitting at $3 market, let alone one that isn't blue; yet here we are. Deadly Dispute is a powerful value-generating card that has made an impact in multiple formats. Many found Adventures in the Forgotten Realms to be a less than exciting draft format, myself included. That, combined with the pandemic meant a reduced number of in-person drafts, thus a smaller supply likely exists in the marketplace.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deadly Dispute

2. Rat Colony

Dominaria was a very powerful and beloved set. It was also released before the pandemic and heavily drafted. Because of this, there are a lot of copies of Rat Colony floating around. Despite that, it still sits at a $2.75 TCGMarket price, which seems unbelievable. However, looking over our list of cards that say "a deck can have any number of" we see that these always seem to be worth something. Persistant Petitioners and Relentless Rats (another card we will look at today) have been casual gold so it isn't surprising to see Rat Colony also holding value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rat Colony

3. Stitcher's Supplier

Core Sets often consist of a large number of reprints and are generally underpowered. Thus, they are generally looked down on compared to other expansions. Wizards has done a better job with the more recent ones, including at least a few cards worth getting. Stitcher's Supplier is the 19th most expensive card in Core Set 2019, beating out two mythics. The card's value is heavily dependent on how good Dredge variants are in Modern. With that deck currently out of favor, the card's price is on the decline, but it's always just a matter of time before Wizards prints something that makes the deck powerful again.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stitcher's Supplier

4. Street Wraith

Similar to Stitcher's Supplier above, Street Wraith's value is tied heavily to whether Dredge or Hollow One decks are powerful at the time. The recent reprint in Time Spiral: Remastered has copies cheaper than they've been in a while. Thanks to the card's history of being $10+ you aren't likely to find copies in bulk, but it's still worth keeping an eye out for.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Street Wraith

5. Vampire of the Dire Moon

Many people don't realize how valuable Vampire Nighthawk was for years. It was a card I consistently buylisted at GPs for $0.25 - $0.75 and was one that most players overlooked. Vampire of the Dire Moon is a smaller version, but one with no additional reprints. As this has a single printing from a Core Set, I can see the price continuing to rise until it gets reprinted. Until that time, always pull these when picking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vampire of the Dire Moon

6. Relentless Rats

The same argument I made for Rat Colony applies to Relentless Rats. This is the original "any number in a deck" card. Despite multiple reprintings, it still manages to hover around $2.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Relentless Rats

7. Honden of Night's Reach

Many may not realize that the printing of Go-Shintai of Life's Origin caused all the Hondens to spike. Unlike with Sanctum of All, the prices so far have stuck. While not as valuable as some of the other Hondens, Honden of Night's Reach is still worth picking and listing online.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Honden of Night's Reach

8. Dark Deal

Dark Deal was a personal favorite out of the Fate Reforged set. Black card draw doesn't come along every day and the fact that this makes all players discard means it tends to work well with a lot of other black cards from throughout Magic's history.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dark Deal

9. Night's Whisper

As I mentioned above, black doesn't often get card draw. Night's Whisper is aggressively costed and easier to splash than Sign in Blood. Originally an uncommon in Fifth Dawn, it was downgraded to common in Eternal Masters, meaning it's legal in Pauper.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Night's Whisper

10. Beseech the Queen

While Beseech the Queen is easily replaced by any of the other tutors black has at its fingertips in Commander, it's a great budget option. Reprints in Planechase, From The Vault, and The List haven't done much to increase the supply from its original printing in Shadowmoor. Thanks to massive playerbase growth since 2008, that number is much smaller than it might seem.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Beseech the Queen

11. Blowfly Infestation

Another Shadowmoor uncommon, Blowfly Infestation originally spiked thanks to Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons. It has managed to hold a decent price since then. Blowfly Infestation is the type of card that is easy to overlook unless you know about it, so it often finds its way into bulk boxes.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blowfly Infestation

12. Locust Miser

I only recently learned about the value of Locust Miser in researching this article. This is one of the benefits to me of writing these types of articles. Even after years of picking bulk and having a good idea of what is and isn't truly bulk, the Magic collective mind can still surprise you with $2 finds.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Locust Miser

13. Thirsting Bloodlord

Here we have another Core Set 2020 Vampire card. As a lord pumping other Vampires, you should already have been keeping an eye on Thirsting Bloodlord. One factor playing a large role in its value is that it wasn't part of the draftable set. It was only included in the supplementary product. Three copies of the card are in the Sorin, Vampire Lord planeswalker deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thirsting Bloodlord

14. Pawn of Ulamog

Pawn of Ulamog is a Commander staple worth $2 or more for quite some time now. It was first printed in Rise of the Eldrazi, a set that feels like it was from forever ago. Black doesn't have a ton of token generators throughout its history. As that has only changed recently, anything that generates tokens in black is something to keep an eye out for. The color often wants sacrificial fodder for all manner of reasons.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pawn of Ulamog

15. Footsteps of the Goryo

Thanks to Goryo's Vengeance decks in Modern, Footsteps of the Goryo spiked hard at one point. It's since dropped back down. The deck's biggest strengths were its surprise factor and a metagame soft to graveyard shenanigans. That said, this is still a good card to pull from bulk and its value can easily jump should it find a home in Modern again.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Footsteps of the Goryo

Conclusion

For anyone who enjoys digging through bulk, whether it's at their local game store (LGS), a store they find while traveling, or buying bulk from local players; knowledge is money and I hope after reading this you are a bit more knowledgeable which will make you a bit richer in the future. Are there any you think I missed? If so comment below or reach out to me on the QS Discord.

Real-World Flavor: Magic’s Religious Citations

Posted on March 30, 2022March 30, 2022 by Francesco Spagnol

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Learn More

Leviathan, too! Can you catch him with a fish-hook or run a line round his tongue?

Over the past few instalments, we have not followed a chronological order, nor have we proceeded according to authors. Instead, we dealt first with specific themes (such as fantastic beasts and the faculty of immagination), and then with cards containing different real-world quotations (a topic that we split in a first part and in a second part). As a such, we analyzed cards that were printed throughout the whole history of Magic: The Gathering.

Today, we'll get back to Magic's first years, tackling the usage of religious texts as literary sources for flavor. Only two cards have quotations from the Qur'an, while five contain quotes from the Bible. These seven cards were all first printed in the early age of Magic, between Arabian Nights and Legends. The onlyq exception is Knight Errant, which only saw light in Portal (1997).

This time, we'll proceed in chronological order, which will also allow us to split between the two cards quoting the Qur'an and the five cards quoting the Bible. Let's begin with an all-star from Arabian Nights.

King Suleiman

There was an error retrieving a chart for King Suleiman

We made tempestuous winds obedient to Solomon...
And many of the devils
We also made obedient to him.
The Qur'an, 21:81

King Suleiman, from Arabian Nights, is a card whose concept comes from the King Solomon. For us Magic players, though, it's a small creature, a 1/1 for the cost of two mana, with a powerful (if somewhat limited) ability: it destroys Djinn or Efreet creatures by just tapping. Such a specific ability sounds a bit weird nowadays, but back in 1993 there were plenty of Djinns and Efreets to destroy, so it does make sense.

As for the flavor text, this quotation from the Qur'an describes Solomon's powers by illustrating how he's able to control not only the winds, but also "many of the devils." Which in the game of Magic are obviously Djinns and Efreets, the creatures King Suleiman is able to destroy by tapping. It's not particularly spot-on, as he is supposed to control them, rather than destroy them. We can forgive him, though, for it's still a beautiful card with a great concept behind it.

From a financial perspective, it's not among the most useful cards from Arabian Nights, but it's still pretty expensive. After all, its price tag is driven by the fact that it's a rare on the reserved list with no reprints. And I'd also add that it's a great collectable, being inspired by a semi-historical character from our world.

Piety

There was an error retrieving a chart for Piety

Whoever obeys God and His Prophet, fears God and does his duty to Him, will surely find success.
The Qur'an, 24:52

Piety was also first printed in Arabian Nights, but unlike Suleiman did get a few reprints, including in Fourth Edition and Renaissance. What is most interesting is that it kept the same flavor text in all its reprints. As we'll see, this is a common thread among the cards explored today.

A white instant for three mana, it grants your creature +0/+3 until end of turn. It's not impressive, it's a common, and it's not on the reserved list, which is why its price is much cheaper than Suleiman's. As for the flavor, it's a proverb-like sentence. We got used to this kind of phrase, as we saw a bunch of them when dealing with Greek and Latin quotations. It simply means that if you obey to God and do good, you will find success.

Durkwood Boars

There was an error retrieving a chart for Durkwood Boars

And the unclean spirits went out, and entered the swine: and the herd ran violently …
Mark 5:13

With Durkwood Boars, we are now moving to the Bible. And we are also leaving Arabian Nights to approach Legends. This green creature is a vanilla Boar, a 4/4 for five mana with no abilities at all. It also kept the same quotation for all its reprints, which it had more of than Piety.

The flavor text is a quotation from Mark the Evangelist. It describes a Biblical episode where Jesus lets some demons enter some two thousand pigs, and they all end up drowning in the sea. It's quite a violent scene, but it gets cut on Boars's flavor text just before escalating.

Part Water

There was an error retrieving a chart for Part Water

… and the waters were a wall unto them on their right hand, and on their left.
Exodus 14:22

Part Water only exists in Legends, as it got no reprints. It's probably the card which tells the most recognizable Biblical episode, at least among the five we are analyzing. A blue sorcery, it grants islandwalk to a number of target creatures, depending on how much mana you spend when you cast it.

The episode it quotes is the "Crossing of the Red Sea", when the Israelites manage to escape from the Egyptians through the guide of Moses. It comes from the Exodus, and it's one of the most famous scenes from the Bible.

Revelation

There was an error retrieving a chart for Revelation

Many are in high place, and of renown: but mysteries are revealed unto the meek.
Ecclesiasticus 3:19

Revelation is a problematic card within this list. The reason is that its quote was corrected from one printing to the next, as John Dale Beety explained in this article. If you look at the original printing from Legends, the quote is attributed to Ecclesiastes 3:19. The problem is that such attribution was a mistake, a typo really, as the real text it cites is Ecclesiasticus 3:19.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Revelation

The Book of Ecclesiastes is 100% canonical, while the Ecclesiasticus is considered apocryphal (i.e. excluded from the canon) by Protestants. As such, depending on the creed and the tradition you look at it from, Revelation might or might not be considered a card quoting the Bible.

Anyway, the quotation is another proverb-like verdict. This does not surprise us in the least, though, because the Ecclesiasticus is one of the typical books commonly known as "sapiential literature" or "wisdom literature". In other words, in a similar way to the book of Proverbs or the Psalms, it contains suggestions on how to live a good and successful life. In this particular case, it explains how what is most important is only revealed to the meek.

Segovian Leviathan

There was an error retrieving a chart for Segovian Leviathan

Leviathan, too! Can you catch him with a fish-hook or run a line round his tongue?
Job 40:25

The most ancient of Magic Leviathans, Segovian Leviathan was first printed in Legends, thus preceding just by a couple of months his cousin Leviathan from The Dark. It got many reprints (including Fourth, Fifth and Sixth Edition), but always maintained the same quotation. It's a big creature, at least for blue: a 3/3 for five mana, with the bonus of islandwalk.

Not impressive, but it's funny how in the Sixth Edition version it temporarily got the creature type of "Serpent". It's actually not a mistake, from a philological point of view. Most modern interpreters intend the Biblical "leviathan" as a crocodile, rather than a cetacean, but another interpretation is that of a large snake.

Knight Errant

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knight Errant

Before honor is humility.
Proverbs 15:33

As mentioned in the introduction, Knight Errant arrived a bit late to the party. While the other six cards were all printed between 1993 and 1994, this Knight showed up in 1997, with the arrival of Portal. Another peculiarity is that only this card did not maintain its original flavor text in subsequent reprints. At least, not in the last one, which occurred in 2001 with Seventh Edition. There, it received a much more trivial flavor text: "Knights are quick to pledge their loyalty and even quicker to charge into battle".

In Portal and Starter 1999, instead, the quotation comes from the Biblical book of Proverbs. It's a very short sentence, and it sounds perfect on a white knight. It mentions two typical qualities of the color white in Magic, namely honor and humility, and states that the latter is even more crucial than the former. It's just a vanilla 2/2 for two mana, and therefore I'd say I'll trust him.

Conclusions

What are the differences between the quotations from the Qur'an and those from the Bible? What do they have in common? Personally, I find more similarities than differences. The two cards quoting the Qur'an where printed within an edition heavily based on the Middle East, which contributes in separating them from the others.

Nevertheless, the concepts we find prove quite smilar. There are some very smart phrases typical of wisdom literature, a few suggestions for a good life, certain episodes coming straight from the two religious texts, and of course a lot of magic. What is your favorite card among those we analyzed today?