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Real-world Flavor. Greek Authors in Magic: The Gathering

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Adopt the character of the twisting octopus, which
takes on the appearance of the nearby rock. Now
follow in this direction, now turn a different hue.

Theognis

Unless you were already playing in 1994 – or unless you are especially keen on Greek elegies – you might have never read this quote before, as the Magic card it's on is not precisely a modern-day staple. It is, however, the first example of a classical-world author’s quotation within Magic: The Gathering flavor text. As we saw in the first installment of this series, flavor text is about spicing cards up. Cards don’t need any particular power level in order to obtain great flavor text.

Classical Quotations as a Whole

Throughout the whole of Magic history, Wizards printed only 15 unique cards with a Greek or Latin author quoted in their flavor text. This doesn’t mean there are no references to the classical world (in fact they are uncountable). Let’s focus on flavor, and suspend other matters for the moment.

A short premise – I’m oriented to consider Greek and Latin quotations together because they have many similarities and can be meant as two halves of the bigger category called "classical world." Since we are talking about 15 cards, however, we are going to split them into two groups: nine Greek cards and six Latin cards.

In this article, we will focus on Greek quotations, and keep the discussion mostly about literary genres and what they have in common. Next time, we will move to Latin authors and shift the focus towards the single choices – and perhaps some missed opportunities.

Loeb Classical Library
Loeb Classical Library

The Nine Archons

Let’s start with a brief overview since nine is a small enough number to allow for a card-by-card analysis. This could be useful mostly for a quick glance at how Greek authors' quotations were distributed among the years and editions of Magic: The Gathering. It will also contain links to the full text (in English translation) so that you can read more about the context. In order of publication, we have:

A Surprising Variety of Literary Forms and Genres

Nine cards then, but only seven authors, as the almighty Homer appears on three different flavor texts. Despite the small number, it is quite an interesting selection, as it covers many genres and literary forms. We have an elegiac poem (Theognis), a philosophical dialogue (Plato), a fable (Aesop), a philosophical treatise (Heraclitus), an epic poem (Homer), and two tragedies (Sophocles and Euripides).

Such variety grows even bigger if we also take into account Latin quotations since they add to the mix epistle, satire, and comedy, but we’ll be back on that next week. So, what do all these different genres have in common, and why did they all end up in Magic flavor text? We will try and answer this question at the end of this piece. For the moment, let’s see in more detail what cards and what authors we are talking about, while also adding some background to the texts.

Dream Coat

This uncommon Aura from Legends allows you to change the color of the enchanted creature at any time, although just once per turn. The quotation is: "Adopt the character of the twisting octopus, which takes on the appearance of the nearby rock. Now follow in this direction, now turn a different hue". I find this passage from Theognis really spot on, as it conveys the idea of ever-changing creatures such as octopuses, which makes perfect sense on a card that lets you change colors again and again.

Particularly interesting, in my opinion, is the choice of cutting the quotation. In fact, the original is a little longer, having a few words before and a few words after what we read on Dream Coat. The point is, those words are what give context, and since context must be avoided when you are trying to extract a passage and put it on a Magic card, they decided to cut it and only keep the central part.

Let's see what I mean. The poet's voice is talking to himself by addressing his own heart. The original text begins with: “Turn, my heart, towards all friends a changeful habit, mingling thy disposition to be like unto each.” This is the context that we lost: the poet is telling his audience how to behave with friends! Then, after the actual quotation that we find as the flavor text, here comes the conclusion – “Surely skill is better than unchangeableness” – to sum up, the meaning of the text.

Fissure

Let’s move to The Dark, the last “expert-level” set to contain any real-world quotations: after that, as we have seen, they were confined to core sets, until eventually disappearing for good after Magic 2014. Fissure is a red common that lets you destroy a creature or a land for five mana. Not precisely a bargain, compared to the current power level, but for the time it was not terrible. The point of the quotation is basic: death is the ultimate fate, no matter the nature of the subject. Be it a land or a creature, it will be destroyed by this instant spell.

But let’s focus on the quotation: "Must not all things at the last be swallowed up in death?" The dialogue this is taken from is Phaedo, possibly the most renowned of all Plato’s works, where the Athenian philosopher Socrates reasons about the immortality of the soul. What I find funny is that this choice makes perfect sense if we consider the way Plato uses to portray Socrates' character. He keeps asking more and more questions to the unfortunate person he’s discussing with until they succumb to his overwhelming display of rhetoric. This small question here might seem negligible on its own, but when it comes with dozens and dozens more it is sure to submerge any opponent. In fact, just to give an example of how things work when you decide to confront Socrates, the other person (called Cebes) can’t help answering: “There is no escape from that, Socrates [
]; and I think that what you say is entirely true”. We feel you, Cebes.

More interestingly, though, is what hides behind that sentence, which is actually a full dialogue. This very sentence, in addition to being a rhetoric question, is also what we call a “proof by contradiction”. The philosopher does not think at all that death is the ultimate fate. In fact, he is trying to demonstrate just the opposite. If you read the dialogue, you will find that Socrates wants his opponent to admit that there must be something else! The magic of out-of-context quotations strikes again, and it won’t be the last time.

Energy Flux

This is an exception to what we have seen so far since the first printing of Energy Flux does not contain any flavor text at all. It is only with the Fifth Edition’s reprint that we find this quotation from Heraclitus. That was granted by progressive simplification of Magic rules text: in the Antiquities printing, there was simply no room on the card for flavor text.

An uncommon Enchantment, Energy Flux is a blue sideboard card useful against artifact decks. The quotation is a passage from Heraclitus’ treatise On Nature, but it’s not an actual quotation, since we don’t possess the original work. What we have are just several short passages, called fragments, from the texts of other authors (in this case, it is Diogenes Laertius’ Lives of Eminent Philosophers). This is the most famous quote by Heraclitus, anyway: "Nothing endures but change". It is normally (and incorrectly) summarized with the expression panta rhei, meaning “everything flows”. Heraclitus never wrote such words, and it is just a way to encapsulate the whole meaning of his philosophy in a catchy phrase.

Personally, I find this one a bit weak, compared to the two we've already discussed, because this Enchantment is not really “changing” artifacts, but rather destroying them. We know very little of Heraclitus, and he is considered a tough author even in the world of classical scholars, so let’s move to the next one.

Royal Trooper

Here comes a rather spot-on flavor text. The point is this white soldier is really brave, and as such he gets aided by Fortune. When he has the courage to block another creature, no matter their strength, he gets pumped and is thus able to tackle bigger enemies, despite his original size. "Fortune does not side with the faint-hearted": pretty straightforward, right?

Things get more complicated when you consider the fact that we don't have the original Phaedra, the tragedy by Sophocles. What we have is just a few fragments, and one of these is apparently what Starter 1999's creative lead decided to use as flavor text. It sounds like a particularly fit choice since it's already an isolated extract.

Sophocles wrote no less than 123 tragedies, but we only have seven of them, so the case of Phaedra is certainly not unique. This quotation is still very famous. It has been declined in several different ways, and the most renowned is probably "Fortune favours the bold", even though in this specific case it would actually be a translation from Vergil's Aeneid: "Audentes Fortuna iuvat".

White Knight

Here's another Promo card, this time from FNM. It's also our second example of Greek tragedy, although from a different author. Royal Trooper's flavor text came from Sophocles, White Knight's comes from Euripides. Another thing they have in common is that both tragedies are lost: just as Sophocles' Phaedra, Euripides' Temenidae has not been transmitted to us by ancient scholars. Euripides wrote 92 tragedies, and we only have 19. Again, not uncommon to lose most tragedies.

The quotation appearing on the card is: "When good men die their goodness does not perish, / But lives though they are gone". Just to add some insight, let's say that it would end with a couple more lines: "As for the bad, all that was theirs dies and is buried with them". There's not much more to be said: it's a decent quotation, but we have definitely seen better ones on White Knight.

Fleeting Image

This is an interesting piece of writing, and arguably among the most appropriate usages of classical literature in Magic. The quotation was born as a proverb, a saying, and thus needed no adaptation before being ready for flavor text. It was already a short sentence with moral purpose, and thus a perfect one to quote. The saying goes: "Beware lest you lose the substance by grasping at the shadow," from the fable known as The Dog and the Shadow.

As the fable is told, a dog with a piece of meat in his mouth sees his own shadow in the water and mistakes it as another dog with a bigger piece of meat. He tries to get the bigger piece but ends up losing his own. It's a short fable with the usual moral at the end: it's unwise to be greedy. As you see, the quotation is not exactly the whole fable, but it surely is the point of the fable.

Righteousness, Dauthi Slayer, & Alluring Siren

We are getting to the end of this journey through Greek literature, but it is going to be an impressive one. I have left for the grand finale the most famous of Greek authors and the father of the whole of Greek literature. Homer is quoted on three different cards. Among the three cards, two contain extracts from The Iliad, and one from The Odyssey.

Righteousness

Let's start with Righteousness, from Fifth Edition. The quote is: "I too shall be brought low by death, but until then let me win glory". This comes from the 18th Book of The Iliad, when Achilles learns of Patroclus' death and cries for his beloved partner. It's the explosion of Achilles' second wrath: the first one was directed against Agamemnon, this one against Hector, whom he swears to kill in order to avenge Patroclus. An emotional moment, full of pathos. The actual quotation should also include a short parenthetical element, which I would translate as "if a similar fate awaits me". Again, the issue with that element is it would require more context, since the "similar" fate refers to the destiny of another hero, Heracles. Not very impressive, and I totally get why it got excluded from our flavor text. One last consideration, before moving to the second card, is that this is similar in essence to Royal Trooper's concept. Both cards get or give a strength-and-toughness boost, and both refer to courage, success, and in general an impressive final effort.

Dauthi Slayer

Next is Dauthi Slayer, a black creature printed as an Arena League Promo. The quotation goes: “A wisp of life remains in the undergloom of Death: a visible form, though no heart beats within it.” This is a second extract from The Iliad but from the 23rd book. Achilles is speaking again, and if possible, this moment is even more heartbreaking than the previous one. The Achaean hero has just woken up after dreaming of Patroclus (some 50 verses are dedicated to this vision, do take a look). The dream ends abruptly, with Achilles trying to hug Patroclus in vain: he is no more than a shadow and fades away, leaving him no chance for a last contact. Achilles wakes up and realizes that it was just a dream. His mate is gone and there is no return. I find this a strong excerpt, but I must also admit that it's not the best of card-quotation matches. The only point I can see is that Dauthi Slayer is a Soldier with the ability Shadow, but the card's image slightly contrasts the intensity of the quote and it looks misplaced.

Alluring Siren

Last, but not least, is a great example of an obvious-but-great quotation: Alluring Siren is a Siren, so why not mention the original passage where Sirens were first brought up in western literature? I'm speaking of Homer, again, but this time we are talking of his second poem, The Odyssey. The text is: "The ground polluted floats with human gore, / And human carnage taints the dreadful shore / Fly swift the dangerous coast: let every ear / Be stopp'd against the song! 'tis death to hear!" A pretty long one, this time, fully covering four lines of the original poem. The action takes place in the Twelfth Book: Odysseus and his crew have just descended into the World of the Dead, and now the enchantress Circe is warning them of what awaits them. The first danger is that of Sirens, and in these few lines, Circe advises them against listening to their songs. We all know everything about Sirens, so let's just remember that the original way they were portrayed in Greek mythology was in the form of half-woman, half-bird creatures. Creepy, even if we ignore their killer chant...

So Many Genres, so Little Space

Now, back to the original question: what do these excerpts have in common? The answer might be obvious, but nevertheless, let's state it. All these texts are short extracts, and the only thing they share is precisely their brevity. In other words, it is not about the works they are taken from (which as you have seen couldn't be more diverse), but rather the purpose for which they are taken.

This demonstrates how, regardless of the genre, it is always possible to take a passage from literally any kind of text and make it a text of its own. In the next article, we'll analyze the Latin quotations and see that context really is what gives meaning. As we'll see, there is certainly a preference towards a particular quality. What quality? Let's just say that any kind of flavor texts, and not just those coming from a classical author, may have something in common with a specific genre that was very common in Ancient Greece. Stay tuned!

Rebuilding Time: A Store Championship Report

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Wow. It's been almost two years since I attended a paper tournament worth writing about. There have been a lot of $1-2k cash tournaments in Colorado since in-store play resumed, but I haven't been able to attend any of them. That's how adulting works. However, I was able to make the Store Championship last weekend. The fact that Mythic Games is truly local for me helped out but considering how many large tournaments I've missed this year (and how much I've missed them), I would have made it work anyway. So today I'll relate what happened and what I learned about Modern at the Championship.

I didn't have high hopes going into this tournament. I've been playing significantly less Magic than I used to. It's not due to a lack of overall desire, mind, but there's far less opportunity today than in 2019. I used to be able to play Modern every day of the week if I was willing to travel around the Denver area. Today, there are only FNMs and occasional weekend tournaments. The problem is that the pandemic still isn't over and stores don't want to risk their staff running more events. And/or can't hire more staff to run said events during the week. Which is more than fair. But playing online just doesn't cut it for me. As such, my play skill has degraded and I'm far less prepared to compete at large tournaments than pre-pandemic. This is foreshadowing.

The Deck

With that in mind, my deck selection was always going to be very restricted. I have UW Control built but I don't trust my ability to play it well over a full day, and I definitely don't have the skill for the mirror anymore. I don't like Humans at the moment, and that left me with the choice of Merfolk or Burn. Merfolk may be my old warhorse, and it is doing better now than it has for years, but it has a flaw. In my experience, Merfolk is very strong against UW Control, a solid choice against Amulet Titan and 4 Color piles, and terrible against Hammer Time and Ragavan decks. I'm constantly behind in tempo and can't just win out of nowhere. Burn has performed better for me in those matchups thanks to Lightning Bolt and Searing Blaze. So I brought both decks to the tournament.

Burn, David Ernenwein (Store Championship)

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt
4 Skewer the Critics

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Boros Charm
2 Lightning Helix
2 Skullcrack
4 Searing Blaze

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Sunbaked Canyon
3 Sacred Foundry
2 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Mountain
2 Scalding Tarn

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
3 Roiling Vortex
3 Sanctifier en-Vec
3 Smash to Smithereens
2 Deflecting Palm
3 Path to Exile

There were a ton of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer decks in the room and so I ran a very stock Burn list. As a bonus, Burn's typical game would be easier to manage than Merfolk's because, again, I'm out of practice. That's especially true for sideboarding. (The split between Snow-Covered and normal Mountains is utterly meaningless. I did it when I first built the deck to annoy someone, and I can't be bothered to adjust it now.)

The Tournament

The tournament capped at 48 players because that's how many seats were set out. Pre-pandemic Mythic had space for around 70, but they took away all the tables during lockdown and don't want to overcrowd the store now. Which again, makes perfect sense. We hit the cap, but only 47 actually showed up. I'm not sure why, but it might be a case of players double-booking stores to ensure they get a space. I say this because most of the players actually there were people I'd never seen before, not at Mythic Games nor pre-pandemic. I'm guessing that a general changing of the guard is happening. On that note, Wizards provided Arbor Elf promos for each store, but for some reason only sent Mythic 40. So to make up the deficit they handed out FNM foil promo packs because Mythic basically swims in the things. I got one of the packs and it more than paid for my entry. Thank you, Commander players and your love of foil mythics.

I arrived early to scout the room which is when I confirmed that there was a ton of Ragavan, hence solidifying my deck selection. That wasn't entirely surprising; Denver's had a lean towards Jund and Burn for as long as I can remember. However, the spread of Ragavan decks was considerable. Jund Saga was the most popular by far, but there were a shocking number of mono-red decks of varying strategies, all with Ragavan. Following that the field was extremely mixed with a wide range of blue decks and also decks from past metagames. By which I primarily mean Titanshift, a deck that has been completely eclipsed by Amulet Titan ever since Dryad of the Ilysian Grove. And yet there were a number of pilots there. I even lost to one.

The Swiss

Which in fairness was all I did. I didn't win a match and just dropped from the tournament. What a way to get back into the proverbial saddle! And the worst part is that I don't think I could have done anything different. My matches all went to three games and I always lost with my opponent one burn spell away from dead. The consistent problem was that I was just missing something. In the first match I didn't draw a spell for 5 turns after getting my opponent to 3 with no means to stop a burn spell. In my second and third matches I kept reasonable one-land hands that become phenomenal with a land. And I didn't draw one until far too late. It especially hurt in the match against Titanshift since I died with my opponent on 1 life.

There were other lines I could have taken in my games, especially the second match against Jund Saga. The problem is that according to my opponents they wouldn't have changed the outcome. In the Saga match, after I lamented the decision I made left me dead to what he did and I should have taken a different route, he revealed that had I taken alternative route I was dead to his alternative choice. It was just too late and I was too far behind in cards and tempo for anything I did to make any difference. I wasn't playing as well as I could have. However, it seems like it didn't matter. My deck just didn't show up at the critical moment and the only alternative decision I could have made was to mulligan for a more reliable hand rather than the speculative ones that I kept. Whether that would have made any difference is impossible to say.

Metagame Observations

I dropped at 0-3, but there were five rounds. Technically it should have been six, but there was a cap. This meant that I had ample time to both lament my performance and to see what was actually happening in the room. I've mentioned that it was a Ragavan-centric tournament, but what was really surprising was the dearth of UW and Hammer Time. There were a lot of blue decks there, but they were mainly Grixis Deaths Shadow followed by Tribal Elementals. Some of them might have actually been Blink because all I saw was Ephemerate, Fury, and Omnath, Locus of Creation. Despite what I'd seen played at FNM for weeks, there was almost no cascade or control.

The Monkey in the Room

Which might be a function of most of the players present being players I don't remember ever seeing before. However, it doesn't explain why there was so much Ragavan, especially Jund Saga. It isn't at all surprising that this metagame looked different from the online one. That's just how it is. However, for Ragavan decks and particularly Jund Saga to be so omnipresent is notable, particularly in light of what didn't show up.

Jund Saga and Hammer Time are very similar decks strategically. Jund is Jund, and therefore does everything in midrange fashion, whereas Hammer Time is more of a combo deck, but that's a question of how, not what. Both feature a fast kill followed by a grinding plan anchored in Urza's Saga. Hammer has its combo kill, where Saga is looking to ride a Ragavan into Tarmogoyf and just snowball the opponent in value. The Hammer kill is obviously much faster, but losing to a Ragavan feels quite similar, as the Monkey steals the means to actually get back into the game. And since Jund is Jund, it has a strong matchup against Hammer, which could mean that players anticipated more Hammer and adjusted ahead of time.

The Exploit

I don't know how the Top 8 shook out. Or who exactly made it. I didn't stick around to find out. However, thanks to the Companion app, I do know who the best-placed player was, and I know they were on Belcher. Well done to them! And given what I said above, it isn't surprising. The room was primed for exactly this to happen. The metagame was extremely fair. It's been quite fair all year. Even the cascade decks fall on the fair end of scale, aiming simply to beat down with a couple of 4/4s. That's not a bad thing, but it does mean that pretty much every deck is skewed towards playing fair Magic. In other words, card advantage, tempo, mana development, and general grinding are every deck's focus. I kept losing not to hate, but to falling behind on tempo and losing the race. However, nobody was ready for a deck that doesn't do anything fair.

Which is the big takeaway from the Mythic Games Store Championship. The format is very fair because with creatures like Ragavan in the mix, playing fair is extremely good, and every deck has the tools to compete on that axis. But it takes commitment to beating other fair decks to be successful. This doesn't leave much sideboard room to fight unfair decks. Not that it's been necessary. However, when it does become necessary, most decks just don't have much to fight combo. Even Jund Saga has been cutting targeted discard recently, and lacks Liliana of the Veil to maintain pressure on combo hands.

Which begs the question of why combo isn't a bigger player in Modern right now. Counterspell decks are the traditional enemy of combo and they're everywhere, but Veil of Summer exists (itself a key player in fair's fight against fair). Hammer Time's only real hope is sideboard (sometimes maindeck) Thoughtseize and racing, and its average kill is slower than true combo kills. And all the Omnath piles are pretty slow. Yet I don't see many combo decks in the data, and I only saw one Belcher deck at the Championship. That hints at an exploitable gap in the metagame that players just aren't tapping into yet.

The Only Way Is Up

So yeah, the only big prize tournament I'm able to make in 2021 and I completely scrub out in a way I hadn't done in years. It sucks, but that's not entirely surprising under the circumstances. There's no use in worrying about it though. I just have to get used to working on my game again and be ready for more next year.

A Trifecta Worth Investing In

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Everyone is familiar with the first nonbasic lands of Magic.

The original Dual Lands check three boxes, making them some of the most desirable (and liquid) cards in the game. First and foremost, they’re on the Reserved List, much to the chagrin of many newer players. This makes them un-reprintable. Second, they’re lands, meaning they have maximum versatility and can slot into many decks. And lastly, they offer something unique. While numerous lands tap for multiple colors of mana, these are the only nonbasic lands that offer two colors of mana with virtually no drawback or restriction.

It’s no wonder these have become so expensive! In fact, on cardmarket.eu the ten Dual Lands pictured above are for sale with an €8,000 price tag.

This week I’m going to look at the overlapping characteristics that drive exorbitant prices for certain lands, sharing examples, and highlighting some cards that don’t quite make the grade.

The Trifecta

I described the Dual Lands as un-reprintable (Reserved List), lands (meaning they are highly versatile), and possessing some unique characteristic (namely, multiple colors of mana with no drawbacks or restrictions). These three traits can be captured in a simple Venn diagram.

There are surely uncountable other ways one could categorize Magic cards. But I found this simplistic approach does a fantastic job highlighting just what makes certain cards special, and therefore valuable!

The Reserved List is the first requirement. This implies the card is A) old, B) in limited supply, and C) likely to never see an increase in supply. Right off the bat, this makes a card collectible. This is why (with few exceptions) any Reserved List card has at least some value nowadays—especially any Reserved List card from Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and even Revised.

The second characteristic I’m looking at this week is the card type: namely, I’m talking about lands. Cards with specific colors are limited in their utility simply because of the very colors they require. Some lands could theoretically slot into any deck. While mana producing lands do have some restrictions (you wouldn’t play an Underground Sea in a white/green deck), they still offer versatility and unmatched power level.

This ties into my third characteristic: having some sort of unique ability. If a land has been rendered obsolete or improved upon, its value could be capped because a newer, less expensive replacement is available. But if this hasn’t happened, and that land is the best at what it does (and what it does is really powerful), then you have a high-utility card that will drive demand.

Examples

Let’s put Dual Lands aside for a moment and examine some other examples. To do this, I’ll simply browse through the Reserved List and highlight cards that fit the three categories of the Venn diagram above.

The next set printed with Reserved List cards after Magic’s original core set is Arabian Nights. This set has multiple great examples worth highlighting. Here’s a list, along with Card Kingdom’s current buy price for near mint copies for reference.

Bazaar of Baghdad - $2240
Library of Alexandria - $1625
Diamond Valley - $650
Island of Wak-Wak - $270
Elephant Graveyard - $225

As you can see, the cards that land in the center of my Venn diagram all maintain hefty price tags. In fact, two of the three most valuable cards of Arabian Nights would fall in the center because of their unmatched power levels. No other cards in Magic are as effective at dumping cards into the graveyard to enable dredge strategies in Vintage as Bazaar of Baghdad. Remember, being a land means the card is always playable (no color requirements), un-counterable, and difficult to interact with.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bazaar of Baghdad

Likewise, Library of Alexandria offers a versatile, un-counterable way of fueling card draw in Vintage and Old School. While many other cards let you draw extra cards, none do so in a way that’s quite this strong, hence the steep price tag!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Library of Alexandria

As a card’s unique ability becomes less and less powerful, the card’s value dwindles. There’s no other powerful way to regenerate elephants like Elephant Graveyard does, for example. And the card is on the Reserved List and is a land, meaning it can fit into a multitude of decks. But who exactly is looking to regenerate elephants? It’s not a popular strategy, so the card earns a lower price. However, I’d argue that any card north of $200 is still pretty expensive!

Looking beyond Arabian Nights, we can see similar themes in the other Reserved List sets of Magic. Granted, sets with larger print runs will see lower prices on average. But relative to other cards within a given set, the same truism holds: a card that falls in the center of my Venn diagram is primed to be relatively expensive.

Other examples include Mishra's Workshop from Antiquities, The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale from Legends, and Lake of the Dead from Alliances. It’s worth noting that Lake of the Dead only works in black decks, so it’s not as versatile as the others. But when it comes to ramping black mana in a big way, Lake of the Dead is most effective.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lake of the Dead

And of course, who could forget the Urza’s Saga group of Reserved List lands: Gaea's Cradle, Serra's Sanctum, and Tolarian Academy? These three cards are all powerful in their own right, and of course Tolarian Academy would be worth more than $500 if it wasn’t banned/restricted in every format.

The Consequence of Violating the Trinity

There are many examples of cards that lie in the middle of my Venn diagram. But what happens if one of the three criteria isn’t satisfied? Let’s take a look!

First, what happens if a card isn’t on the Reserved List, but is still a land with a powerful effect? Well, we can use a couple cards to study this. City of Brass comes to mind—granted, the Arabian Nights printing is still worth a few hundred bucks, but there are plenty of sub-$20 options thanks to all its reprints. And I would argue that if City of Brass was on the Reserved List, it’s value would rival Diamond Valley’s and probably approach four figures.

Another example worth studying is Maze of Ith. The powerful land from The Dark sees play in Legacy, offers a very powerful ability, but isn’t on the Reserved List. Because of its reprints, the card isn’t even in the top five most valuable cards from The Dark. I mean, City of Shadows is an interesting card and all, but I’ve never seen it played in a sanctioned game of Magic. Yet City of Shadows is worth three times as much, because it falls near the center of my Venn diagram.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Maze of Ith
There was an error retrieving a chart for City of Shadows

I’m confident Maze of Ith would be the most valuable card from The Dark, north of $100, if it was on the Reserved List.

Next, let’s see what happens if a card is on the Reserved List, but isn’t all-that-powerful. My favorite example to highlight this group: Sorrow's Path, arguably one of the worst cards in Magic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sorrow's Path

This card is still worth over $10 simply because it’s on the Reserved List, from The Dark, and maybe also because it has goofy artwork. But it’s worth less than Maze of Ith simply because the card is awful.

Alliances has a couple good examples of lands that are on the Reserved List but violate two of my criteria. Balduvian Trading Post and Heart of Yavimaya both appear on the Reserved List and they’re both lands, but they’re not really versatile lands that can be played in many decks. These two cards really only function in red and green decks, respectively. What’s more, their abilities aren’t all too impressive. As a result, they’re each worth just a couple bucks whereas something more versatile and unique, like Thawing Glaciers is around $20.

Hall of Mist is another Reserved List example. The card isn’t colored so it can be played in more lists. But the effect on the card is underwhelming: cumulative upkeep is a tough pill to swallow, and the card is only effective every other turn. Glacial Chasm is an uncommon from the same set and does a better job at stopping attackers. As a result, Glacial Chasm is worth more and sees actual tournament play, whereas Hall of Mist remains fairly useless and nearly worthless.

Wrapping It Up

Some of my favorite Magic investment ideas are cards that satisfy three key criteria: they’re on the Reserved List, offer versatile playability (like most lands), and showcase unique and/or powerful effects. Such cards are unlikely to go out of style. If something hasn’t been printed to outclass a card that initially hit the scene in the early or mid 1990’s, then chances are nothing will ever be printed to obsolete them.

As a result, cards like Library of Alexandria, Mishra's Workshop, and Gaea's Cradle will always carry lofty price tags, with significant premiums relative to lands in their respective sets that don’t tick these three boxes. You could do much worse than to drop some money on these cards, and they should offer plenty of upside over time
 assuming there isn’t a major banning (I’m looking at you, Mishra's Workshop).

That’s not to say that cards that fall outside of the center of my Venn diagram aren’t going to appreciate in price, too. They just have some vulnerabilities, and their prices reflect that. City of Brass and Maze of Ith still have upside if you purchase their original printing. However, I believe their upside is limited by their numerous reprints (less restrictive for City of Brass since Arabian Nights’ print run was so small).

Likewise, Reserved List cards with less playability or versatility will still probably increase in price over time, but they offer far less exciting upside from a value standpoint—not to mention you really won’t be able to enjoy playing the cards while you wait for them to appreciate! You can leverage Diamond Valley to win games while also watching its price increase. What are you going to do with a handful of Halls of Mist? Sure, they can go from $2 to $5 in 2022, but they aren’t going to give you much utility in games of Magic while you wait.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Halls of Mist

And that’s why I love Old School cards—they offer fun play while doubling as solid non-traditional investments. Cards in this category are my favorite of all, because it’s akin to having one’s cake and eating it too. Any time you can enjoy such a benefit, it’s foolish to walk away from it. That’s a life lesson you can take to the bank!

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Magic Alchemy, and Transmuting the Arena Economy

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The Future of Digital Magic

This week Wizards of the Coast announced the launch of Alchemy, a new digital-only format for Magic Arena. Designed to exist in parallel with Standard, Alchemy "incorporates new-to-digital Magic alongside rebalanced Standard cards to create a fast, ever-evolving experience for our players." The key takeaways from Wizards' announcement on Alchemy are:

  • An Ever-Evolving Play Mode
    Build decks with Standard cards, new-to-digital cards, and rebalanced cards in a new MTG Arena play mode that evolves as fast as our players.
  • New-to-Digital Cards
    Alchemy will launch with 63 new-to-digital Magic cards featuring mechanics designed specifically for digital play, and players can expect more new cards alongside every Standard set release.
  • Rebalanced Magic Cards
    Alchemy features rebalanced versions of existing Standard cards to shake up the meta for digital play. Players can expect these regular changes to the format to create a dynamic play experience between Standard set releases.

There is quite a bit to unpack in these three bullet points. YouTuber CovertGoBlue does an excellent job breaking down the announcement, including answering some of the big FAQs in this video:

The Bright Side of Digital First

The biggest positive to having an "ever-evolving play mode" is that Alchemy will continuously feel like a fresh format. The Standard format, thanks to the thousands upon thousands of games played every day, becomes solved within weeks of each new set release. With months separating set releases, this is a long time to wait for new things to shake up the format, especially if the dominance of certain decks makes the format feel stale or repetitive.

By rebalancing monthly, and introducing new digital-only cards in tandem with each Standard release, Alchemy can remain a continuously refreshed and vibrant format, ideal for a digital platform like Magic Arena.

The Dark Side of Digital First

It is important to note that with this move to digital-first, cards that get nerfed or rebalanced in Alchemy will also be rebalanced in Historic as well. An important concern that CGB brings up in his video is that players will not receive any wildcard compensation for cards or decks that are made unviable via rebalancing. This has ramifications on both Alchemy and Historic.

If rebalancing makes a player's deck unviable, they will either have to build a new deck or play the weaker version of that deck until the format shifts again. The fear here is that rebalancing cards may force players to buy into new decks every month to stay competitive. If that's the case, the already exploitative nature of the Arena economy becomes virtually predatory.

Twitch streamer Amazonian, comparing Arena to Legends of Runeterra, summed up the issues with Arena's economy quite well on Twitter:

The cost of collecting wildcards to craft new decks on Arena is expensive. There's no other way to say it. Having to craft a new deck every month? That is the kind of cost barrier that can keep a large swath of players away from a format. How could Wizards transmute the Arena economy to ensure the success of Alchemy and the long-term health of the platform?

Restructuring the Arena Economy

Just looking at some of the top existing digital-only card games as a reference, there are numerous ways Wizards could reshape the Arena economy. Here are the three updates that I see having the most positive impact on players:

  • Allow the purchase of wildcards through in-game currency
  • Establish the ability to dust cards for gold or gems
  • Introduce an exchange rate between gold and gems

Purchase of Wildcards Through In-game Currency

This is the change players have been requesting since virtually the beginning of Arena. The ability for players to buy the wildcards they need to craft decks would go a long way to ease any fears players have about the frequency of rebalancing, or the need to build new decks. The ability for players to purchase wild cards for immediate crafting would also lower the barrier for entry to the game, allowing players to jump right in and immediately be competitive without the need to assemble a massive collection. And for players who already have that size of a collection?

Ability To Dust Cards for Gold or Gems

This change would be a seismic shift for Arena. I honestly see the first change being more likely to happen than this. Dusting cards for in-game currency is common in many online card games. If you already have your set of four Thalia, Guardian of Thrabens from Historic Anthology 2, why would you want more copies of them from Innistrad: Crimson Vow? Dusting cards would allow players that have accrued extra copies of cards not covered by Arena's existing duplicate protection to ditch them in favor of in-game currency to spend on other cards or events as they choose. It would also allow cards players have no intention of playing to be turned into cards they want to play.

Some would argue that dusting cards is the equivalent of Wizards giving away free in-game currency, and they'd be right. I'd argue that it's a relatively minor thing in the grand scheme, and would only lead to increased player engagement. Wizards is stingy about the in-game currency they give away in their daily quests, never mind through a dusting ability. That's why even though this change might be highly requested, it's the change I see least likely to happen. A change I see much more likely is this third one.

An Exchange Rate Between Gold and Gems

Sometimes it happens that I'm shy of the gold or gems I need to enter an event. The ability to exchange currency, even at a lopsided rate, would make it easier to forge ahead. This would keep me engaged with the game. Without that ability, I'm much more likely to log off and wait for the cool-down to expire on my daily quests to earn the currency for the event. The convenience of being able to keep rolling might be tempting enough to keep me playing. I can imagine I'm not alone in this.

End Step

Even if Wizards makes no changes to the Arena economy, I imagine Alchemy will be successful. In-person paper play will always be my preferred way to play Magic. That said, I enjoy Arena and I'm excited to try this new format and for the future of digital Magic.

What do you think about Alchemy and the changes coming to Magic Arena? How would you want the Arena economy to be updated? Let me know in the comments and on Twitter.

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Paul Comeau

Paul is Quiet Speculation's Director of Content. He first started playing Magic in 1994 when he cracked open his first Revised packs. He got interested in Magic Finance in 2000 after being swindled on a trade. As a budget-minded competitive player, he's always looking to improve his knowledge of the metagame and the market to stay competitive and to share that knowledge with those around him so we can all make better decisions. An avid Limited player, his favorite Cube card is Shahrazad. A freelance content creator by day, he is currently writing a book on the ‘90s TCG boom. You can find him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

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You Make The Best Moves But Still Lose

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We've all had it happen. Your opening hand is a one lander and you take a mulligan which results in no lands; you're forced to go to five. You keep an acceptable five but see zero additional lands and a few turns later it's over. Whether it's not drawing your answer on curve or messing up a complicated play sequence, losing some games in Magic is inevitable. Luckily, with respect to casual games of Commander, winning is not all that important!

Not Winning DOES NOT Equal Losing

First, let's talk about the primary difference between competitive Commander and casual. In cEDH, the goal is victory and the tools are anything and everything to achieve that end. For casual Commander, the goal is enjoying the social experience of playing Magic, with winning a tangential goal at best.

Concentrate on changing what counts as a "win." Maybe you want to test the power of a new card, show off a flashy purchase, or demonstrate an obscure rule using old cards; all are valid payoffs that do not hinge solely on the outcome of the game.

Some Winning Card Ideas

Storm Crow is a bad card. The best thing about Storm Crow is that you can pitch it to Force of Will. Storm Crow is without a doubt the worst card you've ever heard of, but, you have heard of it! Clone it, copy it, make as many tokens as possible. Remember, a group of crows is called a "murder" so don't be afraid to remind the other players that if they attack you, you will literally murder them!

Do You Want To Play A Game?

Challenge one of your opponents to a Game of Chaos and see who blinks first. Find the gambler in your group who cannot help themself and enjoy a couple of minutes of intense coin flipping action - win or lose! Make sure you bring a "lucky coin" to show off at the table. There are a large number of cards that say "When you gain life" or "When you lose life" and they trigger each flip; it's entirely possible that, with the right cards in play, everyone is somehow involved in the Game. Build up a mythos by keeping a tally of total wins/losses and victims; if you do it right the other players will line up requesting to be next!

I Have Five, Do I Hear Ten, Five Going Once, Twice

Illicit Auction can create an interesting life mini-game and stealing someone's commander is always a small win. Also, there are some "gotcha" cards like Neheb, the Eternal which generates massive value, and obviously, the Auction can combo with cards like Near-Death Experience and also Triskaidekaphobia. However the most interesting aspect of this card? You can bid more life than you have! As it is not a life payment effect, nothing stops you from bidding arbitrarily large amounts of life. Why would you? Besides negative life shenanigans including Phyrexian Unlife and a "swap life totals" card, the next section has some additional ideas.

Get Really Comfortable With Rule 800.4

From the Magic comprehensive rules, Rule 800.4 et al. describes multiplayer games and what happens when someone loses. There is a huge difference between Oblivion Ring and Banishing Light with regards to losing. Because Oblivion Ring and effects with return triggers go on the stack, if you leave the game the exiled targets will not return to play. However, something you have used Banishing Light on will return. Make sure the other players are aware of exactly how these different mechanics work when it strengthens your position: "Kill me and you won't get back your card" or "Killing me gives them that card back."

Know the rules well to get the most out of losing (or threatening to lose).

The Cheese Stands Alone AKA (Overly)Complicated Ways To Win

Epic Wins Ahoy

A win is a win is a win, or so the saying goes. However, an Epic Win is far better.

If you are an experienced Magic player you know that, most of the time, winning is typically a straightforward deal 20 damage affair. Commander format adds a complication; 40 life is a ton of life. Thus a lot of Commander players look for alternative ways to win such as dealing 21 points of commander damage (somewhat easy) or going for ten poison counters (a lot easier) or doing some form of an infinite combo (easiest by far). However, there are some questionable ways to win which are quite a bit more difficult, so, why bother? For the experience of an Epic Win of course!

Ordinary Wins vs Epic Wins

I assure you that any game in which you take out even a single player with Triskaidekaphobia, or actually kill someone with The Deck of Many Things, or pull off an actual Etrata, the Silencer kill will be a lot more memorable than just attacking for damage or comboing someone out. That game will be more worthy of your time, as even if you do not ultimately win, the memory of an epic game will stick with you no matter the result.

Strixhaven Stadium deserves a caveat. It's somewhat trivial to get a pile of counters on the Stadium by untapping effects, proliferating or one-shotting someone with a pile of tokens with haste. However, it's a monumental task to attack 7 or 8 times while holding off the entire table trying to hit you back and achieving a victory primarily through multiple combat steps.

Magic has a large number of cards that win the game or make a player lose on the spot, each with a different risk/reward ratio. Some extremely competitive cards like Laboratory Maniac have a built-in win condition that is very reliable. Others like Maze's End have a wincon as more of a side effect or afterthought than a primary usage. If you are uncertain of the general power and competitiveness of any given card you can take a look at edrec and see how many decks play that card; you can safely bet if it's being played a lot it's a powerful card.

Once you know your playgroup well enough you can tune a deck to have a wincon that is not too quick, too consistent and, too powerful but also not impossible. Speaking of impossible wincons...

Honorable Mention

Hedron Alignment is in a category all its own. This card is the absolute king of overly complicated ways to win; its wincon is so complicated that it is impossible to pull off in commander. Many local groups either allow cards that access outside cards (various Wish effects) to retrieve additional copies, or, allow 4 copies of Hedron Alignment in a commander deck. If you read my previous article here you know that Magic has always had the idea of "house rules" as a solution for playgroups that encounter unfun cards or situations; let your players attempt to Align their Hedrons pretty please!

Winning? Losing? Not On My Watch!

Maybe you've come to realize that you just cannot find any value, any redemption or any fun in a loss. Well, don't let ANYONE lose!

Divine Intervention Play dozens of cards that say "Draw [a card]" no one bats an eye but play one card that says "Draw [the game]" and everyone loses their mind! Divine Intervention has layers of diplomatic angles with cards like Despotic Scepter or any proliferate effect. A lot of playgroups could be pleasantly surprised at the impact of a rare card that generates a unique gameplay experience that is not about winning at all!


Then there's Abyssal Persecutor one of the most misunderstood demons in all of Magic's history. For the bargain price of just four mana he prevents your opponents from losing - what a nice guy! Remember what I said about Despotic Scepter and diplomacy? Abyssal Persecutor takes diplomacy to the next level. Just note that rules mastery is important. Still, for only four mana you can prevent a lot of unnecessary losing for a long time!

Losing Is Not That Bad

When you do not build a deck purely for winning it can help give you a new perspective, which, can ultimately help you win future games! Losing helps you find out what moves in game were technically "correct" but actually drew too much hate from your fellow players, and thus, were incorrect. A loss can force you to establish diplomatic inroads for the next game instead of viewing other players only as enemies. Most importantly, once you realize that there is a lot more to Magic than winning, you are free to explore deck building in all its glory, free from the onerous burden of picking only the absolute most efficient cards. Have a little fun and you cannot lose!

Repeating on Us: November ’21 Metagame Update

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Welcome to the End Times! Otherwise known as December. 2021 is drawing to a close. While not as abjectly awful as 2020 was, it was still far from a year to remember fondly. At least it's almost over and the hope for a brighter 2022 is glimmering. Let's hope it glimmers like gold and not pyrite. In the meantime, it's time for another metagame update.

November's metagame represents both a continuation of October's and a significant change. The overall population is slightly below Octobers at 514 to 545. The number of events was slightly lower thanks to fewer usable reported non-Wizards events on MTGMelee. I think the actual number of reported events was the same, but there were more that were too small to make the cut. There are a number of groups that hold events that are comparable to Preliminaries and usually produce similar data. This month there were more that only had three rounds. The four that Preliminaries have is already borderline for good data. I'm not sure why this is happening beyond all online results being very volatile, which even played out in the overall data.

I also want to preempt everything by saying that the results from Not-GP Las Vegas are not included in this analysis. It would skew the data as the only paper result. Including the Top 32 results would change nothing about the population data but would heavily skew the power chart using the current point system. If I tried to include more paper results Vegas would outweigh everything and the data would skew anyway. Best to wait for more paper events to exist before trying to mesh the paper and online results.

October Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck “should” produce on MTGO. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough;” in November the average population was 6.06 with rounding and saying that's sufficient to push the cutoff up to 7 results is way too nit-picky for my taste. Therefore, a deck needs 6 results to make Tier 3. The streak of sevens has finally been broken. Given that there was never a reason for such a streak, the fact that it was broken means nothing. However, there is more to this cutoff than it appears.

Tier 3 begins with decks posting 6 results. Then we go one standard deviation above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff for Tier 2. The STdev was 8.48, which means that means Tier 3 runs to 15. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then one above for the next Tier. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 16 results and runs to 25. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 26 decks are required. If all of those numbers seem low given the usual spread for the metagame update, they are. And there's a very good reason for that, one I've dealt with previously.

Another Outlier

Back in May, Izzet Prowess outstripped every other deck by sufficient margin to be considered an outlier. Which I did by reporting its results but not including it in the actual analysis. I'm doing it again this month. However, there is a small twist. Izzet Prowess was the lone outlier last time but this time both UR Murktide and Hammer Time are being excluded. Every month I check for outliers and am sometimes surprised when I don't have any. I really thought Hammer Time and Murktide were outliers last July, but the tests disagreed. This time every test said that Hammer Time is over the line. Murktide, on the other hand, was sometimes over and sometimes right on the line. Given that when I excluded Hammer but not Murktide from the data there was no meaningful change but excluding them both affected the standings, I decided to treat both as outliers.

This does not make them Tier 0 decks. As the rest of the data shows, they're not outperforming other decks per capita. This is also the results for one month. If they repeat the feat in December, that's another story.

The Tier Data

While the total population is slightly down from October, the number of unique decks fell by quite a bit. Where 78 unique decks were recorded in October, I only have 67 for November. With the top two decks soaking up the results there wasn't room for more decks to place. It's also expected for diversity to fall slightly in a more established metagame. Why play something new rather than something good? As long as the fall isn't too great, there's no problem. That said, thanks to the excluded outliers, the lower floor allowed more decks to make the tier list and that's up to 19 from 15 in October.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
Hammer Time6212.96
UR Murktide5812.28
UW Control389.64
Grixis Death's Shadow307.61
4-Color Blink297.36
4-Color Control276.85
Amulet Titan276.85
Tier 2
Jund Saga235.84
Cascade Crashers184.57
Burn174.31
Tier 3
Yawgmoth133.30
Belcher133.30
4-Color Bring to Light123.05
Blue Living End112.79
Mill112.79
Rakdos Rock92.28
Ponza71.78
4-Color Creativity61.52
Dredge61.52

So yeah, Hammer Time and Murktide outstripped UW Control by a wide margin. Not as wide as what happened in July, which is odd. I may have made a mistake, but it's also possible that the more tightly clustered data precluded outliers in July. That can happen when there are huge gaps but all the data falls along a valid trend line. That seems not to have happened here. The huge number of decks in Tier 1 is a function of excluding the outliers. Without that only UW would have joined the top 2 in Tier 1. Everything down to Jund Saga was Tier 2.

How'd This Happen?

I don't have a great explanation for there being outliers this time, nor any of the other oddities of this Tier data. Burn and Cascade Crashers falling down to Tier 2 despite the metagame looking broadly similar to October's is fairly inexplicable, as is Murktide surging out of Tier 2. At the same time, where did Grixis Death's Shadow come from? Seriously, it hasn't been a Tiered deck in months. There has always been a pilot or two sticking to the old warhorse, but even in good months GDS has been at the bottom Tier 3. And yet it's surged into Tier 1, apparently all thanks to Death's Shadow comboing with Dress Down. More surprisingly, it was a very sudden surge. GDS didn't cross the Tier 3 threshold until (roughly) November 19. And I don't know why.

And I may not need to know why any of this happened. As I mentioned up the page, MTGO is extremely volatile. Decks fall off because players get bored of playing them and/or their rental time is up. Decks surge because a streamer did well with it and all their followers have to try it. Did that happen in November? I don't know for certain. But I advise everyone to assume that a shocking fluctuation is just a quirk until it is proven to be not a quirk.

Piling On

I also need to address the multi-colored slop in the room. There's a convincing argument for treating 4-Color Blink and 4-Color Control as the same deck. The only consistent difference between the two is that Blink plays Ephemerate. They have the exact same core of Prismatic Ending, Wrenn and Six, Teferi, Time Raveler, Omnath, Locus of Creation, and Solitude. It's just a question of the support spells around the core, with Blink being more midrange. The Bring to Light and Indomitable Creativity decks share some of this core but retain unique identities.

That isn't inherently bad, but it also isn't good. We were in a similar situation with Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath decks in 2019 and look where that ended. This is not the same situation, but I can definitely see it from here. The issue is that it isn't one card pushing towards homogeneity, but the sum total of a lot of things. The post-MH2 reality ensures that Ending and Teferi are seeing play everywhere. Wrenn is necessary to make the manabases work. Omnath is the best payoff for an already 4+ color deck. What's weird is that Blood Moon is fairly absent. Ponza made Tier 3, but you'd think it would be more of a presence. These piles are far more vulnerable to Moon than Uro was, so I'd hope that is enough to contain the piles. I'm not hopeful, though; its current absence isn't promising.

Power Rankings

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a deck that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8’s. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects its metagame potential.

Points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points for record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5) and Challenges are scored 3 points for Top 8, 2 for Top 16, 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries are depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players. There were three 4 points events in October and no 5 pointers.

The Power Tiers

Just like with population, the total points were down slightly in November. There are 927 total points in November compared to October's 955. Again, this is on the higher end for the returned metagame updates, but below what I was seeing last year. Worth noting that if I'd included Vegas November's points would have far outstripped October's. That's what a single 5-point event allows but given the starting population Vegas really should receive more points than that. Something I have to figure out in the near future.

The average points were 11.00 exactly. Which is extremely surprising and statistically unlikely, but that's what happened. Removing the outlier's points permitted this to happen, but even then it's extremely unlikely. Therefore 11 points makes Tier 3. The STDev was 15.64, which is on the lower end. Thus add 16 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 27 points. Tier 2 starts with 28 points and runs to 44. Tier 1 requires at least 45 points.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
Hammer Time10815.10
UR Murktide10414.55
UW Control7210.07
Grixis Death's Shadow567.83
4-Color Blink547.55
Amulet Titan506.99
4-Color Control486.71
Tier 2
Jund Saga415.73
Cascade Crashers294.06
Burn283.92
Tier 3
Belcher253.50
Yawgmoth233.22
Blue Living End233.22
Mill233.22
4-Color Bring to Light182.52
Rakdos Rock162.24
Dredge131.82
Merfolk121.68
Tribal Elementals121.68
4-Color Creativity111.54

Ponza didn't earn enough points to make the power tiers. The perennial also-ran. However, both Tribal Elementals and Merfolk had enough points to squeak in, so the power tier is larger than the population. However, beyond that there's not much to see. No deck jumped between tiers and within tiers there was a minimal amount of reshuffling. The collective wisdom was relatively spot on this time.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. There is no Wins-Above-Replacement metric for Magic, and I'm not certain that one could be credibly devised. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual. Using the power rankings certainly helps and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Which tracks, but also means that the top tier doesn't move much between population and power, and obscures whether they really earned their position.

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results. However, as a general rule decks which place higher than the baseline average are overperforming and vice versa. How far above or below that average determines how "justified" a decks position on the power tiers are. Decks well above baseline are therefore undervalued while decks well below baseline are very popular but necessarily especially good.

The Real Story

While the extra-point events had a significant impact on standings, it wasn't enough to really distort the data unlike in October. This is primarily because results were less clustered than before. In October, Hammer Time did disproportionately well in the PTQs which saved it from a mediocre at best finish in average power. In November, many decks did well in the events and so the data better reflects the real spread.

Deck NameAverage PowerPower Tier
Tribal Elementals3.003
Merfolk2.403
Dredge2.173
Blue Living End2.093
Mill2.093
Belcher1.923
UW Control1.891
Grixis Death's Shadow1.871
4-Color Blink1.861
Amulet Titan1.851
4-Color Creativity1.833
Baseline1.80
UR Murktide1.791
4-Color Control1.781
Jund Saga1.782
Rakdos Rock1.783
Yawgmoth1.773
Hammer Time1.741
Burn1.652
Cascade Crashers1.612
4-Color Bring to Light1.503

And there's the main reason that Hammer Time and UR Murktide shouldn't be considered Tier 0: they're both under the baseline stat. Murktide is just below, which means it's effectively tied and thus performing in accordance with what I'd expect from a popular deck. Hammer Time slightly underperformed. That's a sign that Hammer is very popular online, but also very beatable. More than it's given credit for. Meanwhile, the best performing high-tier deck and thus the deck of November is UW Control. Nobody tell Shaheen Soorani.

Tribal Elementals is the first deck to get 3 points on average. However, don't celebrate yet: that was done with 4 decks. When a deck Top 8's events, it will see a huge boost in the rankings, but if that's the only place it shows up, then it means nothing. Some specialists had a good event, and this achievement says more about the pilots than the deck. Make it a consistent thing or place more decks if you want me to take it seriously.

Winding Down

So do we close the books on November. December is usually a relatively quiet month for Magic, but this continues to be an unusual time. However, the metagame will continue to evolve and we'll see what happens come January.

Real-world Flavor. Introduction to an Old-fashioned Habit and Its Thrills

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They groaned, they stirred, they all uprose

Nor spake nor moved their eyes;

It had been strange, even in a dream,

To have seen those dead men rise.

Samuel Taylor Coleridge

You might already be familiar with this excerpt, from The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, the longest and most famous work by the English poet Samuel Taylor Coleridge. Among Magic players, however, it is mostly famous as the flavor text of Scathe Zombies, a card that was printed in every single core set, from Limited Edition Alpha through Tenth Edition.

The Sense of Flavor Text

What I like about this choice is that it’s completely gratuitous. I mean, Scathe Zombies is a vanilla creature, a costly black Grizzly Bears, and certainly not a powerful spell making “dead men rise” (think of Reanimate, Animate Dead and the like). And still, someone up there decided to associate this humble Zombie with such a huge, evocative piece of poetry. If you think about it, though, that’s precisely how flavor text works. It is the cards with no (or nearly no) rule text the ones more likely to receive a flavor text, simply because they offer more room within their text box. In the end, flavor text is not at all about in-game power level, but rather about depth, story, and lore. And that’s why we love it, or at least why I have always loved it.

In The Beginning...

I was nine when I started playing Magic. The Onslaught block had just come out, but some of my friends were lucky enough to have older brothers letting them bring older cards to school. I vividly remember the first time I saw a copy of Scathe Zombies from Alpha. I was amazed, both by its old-school look and by its flavor text. It is quite possible that I didn’t know what flavor text was at that time, but I still remember it striking hard. I had never heard of Coleridge, and I’m not even sure I totally understood he was a real author. Those few lines of text certainly had a huge impact on my young mind, as did that excruciatingly beautiful mono-black deck.

Some haunting flavor texts from my first deck, Scourge's Max Attax

Quite a few years have since passed. After studying Literature for half my life, I now know a bit more about that matter. Recently, I got interested in checking out how many cards make use of real-world quotations. I was under the impression that less and less of them were being printed. It turned out that it was not just an impression. Apparently, they are now a thing of the past. The last time a card with real-world flavor quotations was printed was in 2013. This was Zephyr Charge from the Magic 2014 Core Set.

Farewell to Quotations

What in the world had happened? Well, it looks like R&D decided to give more space to worlds, stories, and characters that were created entirely for the game of Magic: The Gathering and just stopped making them. I also discovered that long before 2013, real-world quotations were confined to core sets. The last expansion set with one of these cards was The Dark, dating back to 1994. This is too bad, for fans of literature like me! It was personally quite a shock. Before delving further, let’s focus briefly on what flavor text is and how it is created.

Adding Spice to the Cards

As I said earlier, flavor text is all about spicing up the cards by adding depth, story, and lore to them. So how is flavor text created? For every set, be it a core set or an expansion, there is a single person in charge of all the names and flavor texts. To be more precise, that single person acts as the “creative lead". There is also a whole creative-writing team, mostly composed of freelance writers. Each of them submits several proposals concerning the names of the cards and their possible flavor texts, but in the end, it is up to the creative lead to decide what choices will see print. This has always been the way things worked, with the only change being that at first, the creative lead was the same person for all the sets, while later they started giving the role to different people from set to set.

The last real-world quotation so far

Are Real-world References Edutainment?

As Mark Rosewater himself explained, Magic R&D decided to limit the use of real-world quotations more and more, until eventually suspending it for good. It looks like they were afraid Magic players would have felt like they were in school, whereas Magic should only be linked to fun, and not confused with edutainment. As a consequence, there were no more such cards after the aforementioned Zephyr Charge. That is if we exclude the Evolving Wilds from Secret Lair, illustrated by Bob Ross and featuring a famous quotation by the artist.

In "Perfection Through Etherium", from the series Savor the Flavor, back in 2008, authors Matt Cavotta and Doug Beyer stated that "it's just too jarring to the sense of place to hear some European dead guy spinning prose while you're looking at the art of some Jund viashino". After a few surveys, Wizards found out that most players preferred Magic-based texts rather than real-world quotations. This means we may very well never see one of those sweet old poems on a Magic card ever again. What we can do, though, is have some fun analyzing the texts that were used in the past, when this was still a thing, and that’s precisely what we are going to do.

The Most Represented Literary Authors

Now, back to Scathe Zombies. As we said, it represents a perfect example of a real-world quotation, and incidentally, Coleridge is also one of the most quoted authors in Magic. He would deserve the third position in a hypothetical contest since there are no less than six distinctly named cards quoting him. Wait, is six cards enough for the podium? It appears so, but if you think that’s weird you should consider the fact that the number of cards showcasing real-world quotations is no more than two hundred. Not that impressive. But after all, let’s not forget that (except for the first year of life of this game) such cards only ever saw print in core sets.

Some of the most renowned cards with real-world quotations

Top of the Literary Standings

And what about the rest of the podium? On the second place, we have another poet, this time one that anybody would recognize: William Shakespeare. The Bard from Stratford-upon-Avon is quoted in 24 distinct cards, his selected works ranging from tragedies and comedies to sonnets. As for the first place, who on Earth could do better than Shakespeare? The answer might surprise you a little since it is not even an English-language author. His name is Luo Guanzhong, and he is a Chinese writer from the 14th century.

His most renowned work is the Romance of the Three Kingdoms – does it ring a bell? As you might have guessed, his victory (granted by no less than 40 cards) should mostly be traced back to the existence of a very special set: Portal Three Kingdoms. This edition, from 1999, was specifically designed for the Asian market and was not even sold in North America, making English cards from that set some of the rarest in the game.

The Literary Top 8

Luo Guanzhong, William Shakespeare, and Samuel Taylor Coleridge are at the top of the standings, but what about the rest of the Top 8? In descending order we have:

  • 4. Edgar Allan Poe (5 cards)
  • 5. Lao Tzu (5 cards)
  • 6. Alfred Tennyson (4 cards)

After sixth-place, things get complicated. We have a tie involving no less than eight different authors, each with three cards: Lewis Carrol, Homer, John Milton, John Dryden, Confucius, Sun Tzu, Seneca, and Ralph Waldo Emerson. It's up to you to decide tiebreakers on that esteemed list.

Special Mentions

A couple of special cases worth noting separately are The Bible and The Arabian Nights. They would both get into the Top 8, except that they are not technically "authors". Anyway, various quotations from The Arabian Nights show up on six cards – curiously, only four of them come from the edition Arabian Nights. As for The Bible, it is present on four or five cards, depending on the Christian tradition, as minutely explained by John Dale Beety.

Novel Shades of Meaning

What I like the most about real-world quotations is the huge variety of authors this system displays, with no need to even invent quotes. The first three authors alone take up 70 cards, sure, but there is still plenty of room for many other poets, novelists, and thinkers, as I will try to show you in the next articles. Another thing I love about it is the way famous lines, speeches, and poems often gain a brand-new meaning, proving in the plainest way that what gives sense to words is above all the context in which they are expressed.

Retracing Commander: Keeper and Control

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Back when Magic was released in 1993, information about the game was scarce. Aside from speaking with other players in your local area, you were limited to magazines and clunky Usenet groups. It was the wild west. Concepts like mana curves, tempo, and card advantage were alien to the players of the time.

The community has come a long way since those days, but there’s plenty more we have left to learn. It’s time to step back to 1993 and revisit "The Deck" that changed everything.

Welcome Back to Retracing Commander!

Last week I set off this series with an overview of how I approach brewing decks for Commander. This week we’ll dissect Keeper by Brian Weissman, a quintessential Control deck. We’ll use our analysis to discuss how to adapt the strategy to Commander games, and how I approach the matter of Card Advantage.

I was first introduced to Keeper through a very old article by Darren Di Battista that I discovered back in 2013. After a few successful attempts at brewing a list for Standard, I set it aside to focus on the next idea to catch my attention.

Since then that article has been at the back of my mind, lurking in my subconscious waiting to be reopened. As we start off this series with an analysis of a proper Control deck, it’s time to crack the lid on Pandora’s Box and unleash "The Deck."

A Masterpiece of Design

Keeper, also known as “The Deck,” was revolutionary. It was the strongest Control strategy in Magic in the early years. It was a list that could compete against anything and come out on top, an engine designed to punish opponents for even the slightest mistakes. It was loaded with silver bullets against the most-popular strategies and drizzled with permission spells. It's win condition? Strip every resource from their opponents and win the game by swinging with Serra Angel.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serra Angel

Card quality has grown a lot since those days. No longer the powerhouse it used to be, Serra Angel has fallen from the skies it used to occupy. Yet to this day the strategy at the core of Keeper is solid and there is a lot we can learn from it if we want to play control in Commander.

An Overview

Here's a build of Keeper you could expect during the first two years of Magic:

Brian Weissman's Keeper aka The Deck 1993/1994

Counterspells

4 Counterspell
1 Mana Drain
1 Red Elemental Blast

Removal

4 Disenchant
2 Fireball
2 Moat
4 Swords to Plowshares

Card Draw

1 Ancestral Recall
1 Braingeyser
1 Jayemdae Tome
1 Recall
1 Timetwister

Other

1 Demonic Tutor
2 Disrupting Scepter
1 Mind Twist
1 Regrowth
1 Time Walk

Mana Ramp

1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Pearl
1 Mox Sapphire
1 Mox Jet
1 Mox Ruby
1 Mox Emerald
1 Sol Ring
3 City of Brass
3 Island
1 Library of Alexandria
2 Plains
4 Strip Mine
4 Tundra
2 Underground Sea
3 Volcanic Island

When you first look at this deck, it may seem like a misfit pile of cards. But it wasn't the inclusion of the Power Nine that made this deck so strong. It was how all these disparate cards came together into a cohesive game plan that preyed on the metagame.

The Cards

Keeper was a control deck that used the best of all five colors with a large part dedicated to White and Blue. Those two colors offered a splendid combination of answers and card draw, forming the core of a strategy dedicated to delaying the game.

The White section in this deck focused on disabling threats that hit the board. Blue focused on gaining card advantage and countering spells that threatened Keeper’s core game plan.

Black was often limited to tutoring and hand disruption, but it did a masterful job. Red offered creature removal. Green was usually splashed for a single Regrowth.

The artifact section offered incredible mana acceleration and incidental card advantage. Notable cards include Jayemdae Tome and Disrupting Scepter.

The Strategy

Keeper played as a Control deck centered on disabling opponents in every way. From their creatures on the board to their lands in play to the cards in their hand. The goal of a Keeper player was to avoid losing at all costs. Their game plan focused on preventing the opponent from progressing while building up their advantages. Some cards are particularly notable:

Moat locked out entire strategies that were popular at the time. When decks were able to fly over it, Swords to Plowshares was always ready to save the day.

Whoever resolved Mind Twist would often win a control mirror, and it would go unchecked against decks without ways to respond to it.

Mana Drain offered Keeper a way to be proactive in its defense. It not only countered their threats but also accelerated Keeper’s own game plan in the process. Countering an Erhnam Djinn only to tear their hand apart with a Mind Twist after untapping was an incredibly feared line of play.

At the time, Serra Angel was among the best finishers in the format. A single copy put the game on a five-turn clock as soon as it hit the board, and Keeper excelled at protecting it.

And, of course, the card advantage of spells such as Ancestral Recall and Timetwister is rarely underestimated these days.

Commanding Keeper

If we want to adapt Keeper's control strategy for Commander, we’re going to need to build a decklist that recreates that strategy. Whenever we brew a new deck, our goal is to answer these questions to inform our card choices:

  • What do I need during the Early Game?
  • How do I get there through the Mid Game?
  • How do I achieve that in the Late Game?
  • How do I plan to win?

The Early Game starts the moment your first turn begins. Your goal can be completely different depending on the deck you play. In essence, the Early Game ends when you have achieved the trigger that puts your deck into action. Many decks end their Early Game when they have reached a certain amount of mana. Others exit it when they cast their Commander. You want your Early Game to be as short as possible. The longer it takes to reach the Mid Game, the less time you will have to assemble the pieces you need to win. After all, your opponents will be trying to do the same!

The Mid Game is often a chaotic brawl as you and every other player fight to secure an advantage. It's where you will be spending most of your time, starting from when you have the minimum resources your deck needs to function. You want to create the ideal circumstances for you to win, whether it be a certain combination of cards, or a specific board state, or perhaps reducing your remaining opponents.

The Late Game is different depending on the deck. A highly-tuned combo deck might hit it by turn three whereas a control deck like this might not reach there until turn twelve. The Late Game starts when you have most of the tools you need to pull off your Win Condition and it's just a matter of securing your victory as soon as possible. It ends when you win or lose the game.

Personally, I find it more intuitive to answer the questions in backward order...

"How do I plan to Win?"

With a deck like Keeper, our focus is less on winning the game and more on preventing ourselves from losing. Because of this, our deck should be built around our own survival. But the game needs to end at some point, and we want to come out on top.

Keeper focused on winning through dealing damage with Serra Angel over five or more turns. Even though multiple opponents make creature strategies difficult, we can try similar approaches.

For low-power games, my suggestion is to use cards with Myriad. Herald of the Host is this format’s Serra Angel, and Caller of the pack can end games twice as quickly. They offer opportunities for opponents to interact, preventing games from feeling entirely hopeless. And Azor's Elocutors is a janky win condition that offers opponents a fair window to interact.

Stronger options include Phage, the Untouchable, and similar ways to instantly make players lose the game. Master of Cruelties with Blade of Selves seems particularly effective after a board wipe! Helix Pinnacle is another delightful alternative, similar to Azor’s Elocutors as suggested above.

In higher power games, I might suggest focusing on card advantage with the goal of a combo finish. Either a Doomsday spread or to win by decking yourself with Laboratory Maniac in play.

“How Do I Achieve That in the Late Game?”

One way to figure out what you need during the Late Game is to envision what the board could look like on the last turn of the game. What do you need to have in play, in hand, and in your other zones? What cards can your opponents disrupt this strategy with?

Your game plan flows from the scene you have pictured in your mind.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Herald of the Host

Here’s an example. I’m imagining a Commander game where I am playing a low-power control deck based on Keeper. I have just won by swinging for the last lethal damage with Herald of the Host, having cleared the way for many turns of attacks.

My opponents are doing their best to stop me by clearing my threats or building defenses of their own. For this reason, having a bunch of counterspells in my hand is important. A card like Lightning Greaves equipped to Herald would help. A board empty of blockers or a way to make my creature unblockable would further ensure my victory.

So: I want to drop Herald of the Host with counterspells ready to protect it and some form of equipment or enchantment that can protect it from most of my opponents' removal spells. That sounds like a lot to ask for, so I will need lots of card draw. I will probably want it at instant speed so I can hold up mana for interaction.

From here, we keep working backward. What do I need to reach that point? Or, in other words...

“How Do I Get There Through the Mid Game?”

For Keeper, I need enough board wipes to prevent my opponents from building a threatening board state, and spot removal for specific permanents that will disrupt my plans. This includes removal for artifacts, enchantments, and planeswalkers. I want card draw to keep my hand full of options, and enough mana so I can stay ahead of my opponents. A few tutors to help me find my win conditions are important, and of course, counterspells to thwart my opponents! But how many of each of these should I include?

Well, the easiest way is to take these categories and count the number of cards the Keeper deck has in each one. Then multiply that number by 1.66. For example, by counting the number of removal spells in the decklist you will find eight for dealing with creatures if you include Moat. Multiplying that by 1.66 gets you thirteen, which is the proper amount of creature removal in a 100-card version of this deck. You can adjust that number to fit your meta, but it offers a fantastic starting point as you build your decklist.

"What do I need during the Early Game?"

A Keeper strategy in Commander doesn't need to stress during the early turns. As you have forty life and most opponents will be developing their own board states, you have a cushion you can take advantage of.

With that in mind, I would place my focus during the first few turns on ramping my mana. Twelve sources of mana ramp, as well as thirty-six lands, seems like a great point to start from. Cheap sources of card draw would help us dig for more resources and refill our hands with options.

Once we have enough mana for a board wipe and a few counterspells in hand I would feel comfortable moving to the Mid Game and focusing on preparing the board for our victory.

End Step

Thanks for reading! Deckbuilding is a passion of mine and I am excited to dig into the history of competitive play with this series. If you want to read more about Keeper, you may be interested in a few of the resources that helped my own research:

Next week we'll explore Midrange for Commander. We'll develop an understanding of the archetype by analyzing the strengths of Abzan Midrange during Khans of Tarkir Standard. Siege Rhino is back!

Until then, happy brewing!

Alpha and Beta: Two Bright Spots

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I haven’t done a deep dive on Old School prices in a short bit, mostly because my own interest in Magic has admittedly faded. However, a string of transactions I made recently has rekindled a little bit of that spark, and it has driven me to take a closer look at some prices again to see where the market stands.

This week I’m going to share the details around my transactions, my motivations behind them, and the trends I observed while doing some of this pricing research. If you’re looking for an update on the market, and particularly what stands out to me as the “hottest” Old School cards, this is the article for you!

It All Starts With Alpha

The catalyst for my updated price research was a few transactions I made regarding Magic’s earliest sets. To start, I sold a couple Alpha cards on eBay to test the waters. These were cards I purchased from Star City Games, using the premium membership discount, with the intention of selling for a small profit. The exercise worked flawlessly—not only did I manage to sell the Alpha cards on eBay as planned, but I also had an eBay member directly message me after making a purchase asking if I had any other Alpha cards for sale!

Clearly, the Alpha market remains hot, and this is evidenced by the fact that Card Kingdom and ABUGames are sold out of so many Alpha cards. In fact, Card Kingdom’s cheapest Alpha cards in stock are VG Power Leak and Sea Serpent, which still carry a hefty $22.79 price tag!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sea Serpent

At this point, just about any sleeve playable, non-inked/damaged Alpha card is worth at least $20 with very few exceptions. It’s no surprise that Card Kingdom is sold out of “G” Alpha cards for the most part—those prices (starting at $15.20 for the cheapest commons) are just too low at this point. The most heavily played, cheapest Alpha rares also start near $300 these days. One of the cards I sold on eBay was a heavily played Alpha Purelace, which went for $275. Again, with few exceptions, they just don’t get any cheaper than that.

I’m sure the higher end, more playable Alpha cards are also strong. I just haven’t followed them very closely of late because I don’t really have many! My assumption is that if the low-end Alpha market is hot, then the high-end of the market should be strong as well. I mean
Card Kingdom is paying $90,000 on their buylist for a near mint Alpha Black Lotus. Need I say more?

From Unlimited to Beta

The transactions I made this past month included my largest single card sale ever! I sold a very heavily played (though not damaged) Unlimited Mox Sapphire.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Sapphire

This one was tricky to move, and I think my timing was suboptimal. The demand for Power has cooled these past few months—I think this card should have been able to fetch close to $4,000 had I sold at the peak of this latest cycle. Because I waited, however, I had trouble finding takers at my initial price point of around $3600. I dropped the price multiple times, and finally found a buyer who could not resist a deal, at $3350.

While I probably left a little money on the table, I kept everything in perspective. First of all, I wanted cash at that moment, so I had to work with what the market would bear at that point in time. Secondly, my entry price was lower so it was hard to be upset about the profit. Lastly and most importantly, I sold the card to another member of the Old School community, so I was happy to help them out with a fair deal just as I had gotten a good deal when I purchased the card in the first place.

At the end of the day, I was sitting on the highest cash amount in my Magic account (i.e. PayPal) in years. What did I do with the funds?

First I transferred nine percent right into the college account. That’s always the top priority, and I was glad to put yet another dent in my college savings goals for the two kids. With the remaining funds, I decided it was finally time to upgrade my Unlimited Counterspells to Beta. This has been on my to-do list for over a year now, and it felt like the right moment to make the leap.

I won a played Beta Counterspell on eBay from Kid Icarus on a whim, by panic bidding one last time while the auction had just a second remaining, and I won for a hair over $500. After sharing the experience, someone in the Old School Discord offered me three others for $500 a piece—in just a week, I had completed the quest to obtain four copies! I promptly sold the Unlimited copies, and my deck upgrade was successful!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Counterspell

Hold on a second. Were you at all surprised that heavily played Beta Counterspells go for $500? I sure was! I couldn’t believe how expensive these had gotten lately. I remember these selling for $300-$400 recently. When doing my pricing research, I checked TCGplayer and the cheapest non-damaged copies started at $675. I definitely wasn’t paying that much. When I saw the last sold heavily played copy on TCGplayer went for $475 back in September, I knew I was in for a painful purchase.

Even the damaged copies on eBay have recently sold, and now the cheapest copy listed there is one that the artist signed and drew on, with a price of $599.99. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that copy sell next.

As it turns out, it’s not just Counterspell that is rising in price. Many cards from Beta are climbing to new highs lately, bucking the trend set by other areas of the Old School market. I’ve been following Card Kingdom’s Beta buylist lately, and I’ve observed a number of cards ticking higher and higher.

Copy Artifact’s buy price just hit a new high recently at $1500. Iconic cards Birds of Paradise and Shivan Dragon maintain high buy prices of $1900 and $1800, respectively. Some mid-tier cards are also climbing, such as Mind Twist ($1140), Armageddon ($960), Braingeyser ($960), and Winter Orb ($960). Beta Stasis’s buy price has increased even in the past 48 hours, because I remembered it was $840 last time I checked, and it’s now $900.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Copy Artifact

By the way, if you were curious to know the lowest buy price for any Beta rare on Card Kingdom’s site: the answer is Lifelace, $60. Though, if I had a copy I definitely wouldn’t be selling it to Card Kingdom. TCG low is $90 for heavily played copies and the last sold copies were moderately played and at about $100. In fact, as I compare Beta inventory on TCGplayer and Card Kingdom’s buy prices, I believe there’s still more upside in the latter—Card Kingdom seems to have fallen behind on the Beta market recently, and they are just now gradually adjusting.

Expect new highs and more movement in the Beta market in the coming months. In fact, I consider Beta cards the best place to put new money to work at this point in time. With Alpha cards already expensive and sparse, Beta seems like a logical next rung of the ladder, and prices are starting to reflect this. Rares, with just about 3,200 printed, are the most attractive.

Wrapping It Up

Outside of Alpha and Beta, prices on older Magic cards appeared to have hit a steady state of sorts. In the first three months of the year, we saw rampant buying and prices soared. Following the buyout period, inventory gradually returned and prices saw a pullback. Library of Alexandria is a good example of a card that followed this trend, though there are countless others.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Library of Alexandria

Since about August, the best buy price on Library of Alexandria and the like have stabilized, giving me confidence that we’ve found a new equilibrium in the market. Equilibrium and consistency tells me cards are once again “fairly priced” and not overbought or oversold.

After Black Friday shopping, I’m doubly curious now to find out if the market has seen movement.

In the meantime, my focus remains on two areas.
1) Alpha (when priced very well, such as Star City Games’ HP inventory) and Beta cards
2) The occasional Old School cards I want for my collection, now that prices have stabilized

These will be my guiding principles as I look to my investment strategy with just a month left in 2021. It’s impossible to predict what 2022 will bring. Will we have more large-scale Magic events? Or will new COVID variants necessitate new safety precautions and ensuing lockdowns? I’m sure I’m not alone in hoping for the former, as we all strive to reemerge into a normal (or at least pseudo-normal) world.

No matter what happens, I’m confident the Alpha and Beta story will remain intact, and it’s a key reason why I am focusing on these markets in particular. Clearly I’m not the only one feeling this way, as prices on Magic’s earliest two sets climb higher. For Alpha and Beta, the future is bright COVID or no COVID, and investments such as these are tough to find in a world of major uncertainty!

Return of Paper: Analyzing MTG Las Vegas

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Let us all take a moment to appreciate the fact that for practical purposes, Grand Prix are back. I realize that this may be premature, but I think it's important to reward good behavior. Regardless of any other problems, notable omissions, or unrealized expectations, I want to thank Channel Fireball for hosting MTG Las Vegas. Everybody should do so in the hopes that they keep doing until Wizards figures out what it wants to do. At minimum, it will show Wizards that the demand for GPs still exists. Hopefully, that encourages them to make the sane decision rather than attempt another... whatever the MPL was.

More importantly, with Vegas in the books, there's a unique opportunity to look into the paper metagame. We all had to endure 2020 without sanctioned paper Magic, and even once it became possible again early this year, paper has remained extremely local. Nobody's been willing to host big events, and as I mention every month the online metagame is its own world. Deck rental services and the pressure of streaming means that MTGO moves in ways ranging from impossible to nonsensical for paper play. We can only get a "real" look at the metagame when paper is considered. However, the reality of paper being entirely localized means that even if I was tracking paper results, I'd get a very skewed picture. MTG Vegas being open means it's a more random and therefore valid sample.

I Have Grievances

However, I need to get some gripes out of my system first. Both for catharsis and because they inform how I'm approaching the data from Vegas. I'm told that the event went incredibly smoothly, and everyone who's tweeted or written about the event has been pleased with the experience and grateful it existed at all. Which is a very hopeful sign. However, for those of us who didn't/couldn't attend, Channel Fireball's MTG Las Vegas was an enormous disappointment. There are two levels to this disappointment, one which I think every player shares. The other really only impacts me and those like me and/or profit from the kind of data work I do. And I want to make sure that said problems are documented and discussed in hope they are corrected for future events.

The Coverage Problem

I realize that everyone has complained about this already, but it's critical to keep up the pressure. There was no official coverage of MTG Las Vegas. At all. The closest thing was twitter updates from Corbin Hosler and theMMcast. Which went okay for Day 1, but really fell off Day 2. I have no idea what was going on for them or why there were so few updates, but it was very disappointing. Maybe that's on me setting my expectations too high, but ChannelFireball said Corbin and company would be the coverage for the event, essentially implying things that I feel weren't delivered. That said, everyone should praise the community members who did step up and provide coverage themselves, namely eyelashTV who streamed from the floor. Big props out to them for the initiative and the quality delivered. Bravo!

Now, I don't entirely blame ChannelFireball for the lack of coverage. Commentators everywhere were complaining that lack of streaming or video coverage is unacceptable in 2021. And I understand where that's coming from given how omnipresent cameras and YouTube are today. However, I know from friends in filmmaking that professional setups are ruinously expensive. The equipment to pull off the coverage Wizards used for Grand Prix and Pro Tours cost thousands to purchase, the bandwidth isn't free, and there's also paying the broadcasters. But the silent killer is that all of that also needs to be insured. No matter how thoroughly everything is secured after every shoot, how organized the crew is, how vigilant the producers are, or aggressively threatened the interns are, equipment disappears every time a film crew films. And what doesn't disappear eventually breaks. Filming just isn't profitable.

The Galling Part

However, that doesn't excuse the lack of text coverage. That's cheap! All it takes is a laptop and a pair of hands, which are already there in abundance. There was a feature match area set up which meant that you needed judges standing there anyway. Give them a chair, a keyboard, and have them write down the games they already have to observe! It's not hard and is the way it was done before internet video became commonplace (and reliable/good). This should be obvious!

I'm being serious here. I can excuse lack of video coverage because of cost (especially when there's no guarantee CFB will ever do this again), but no text coverage? After preparing a fully staffed feature match area? That's just baffling. They already had theMMcast and Corbin there to do text coverage; why not just have them park at the feature match area and tweet out the matches? Did they not think of that, was there some other concern which couldn't be fixed, did Corbin simply not want to do sit there all day? Seriously, I want an explanation. Heck, why not have otherwise unoccupied staff do it? They're already there, why not keep them working?

Or hire me and I'll do it all next time. I come cheap. And coverage-wise, there is nowhere to go but up.

The Data Problem

Which leads into my next issue, which is a far bigger issue for me than normal players: the lack of data. I don't know why, but the only "official" data from the weekend was theMMcast posting the Top 8 decklists. And nothing else. Which is extremely frustrating for me. Wizards likes to keep tight control over Magic data. I remember that they made Frank Karsten curtail his data releasing when he did coverage for them. However, this wasn't a Wizards-run event. There was nothing in the way of CFB giving us a Top 32 and Day 2 data dump. Nothing except for laziness.

And I'm not just annoyed about this in an "I want to know, feed my endless curiosity" way (though it certainly is a factor). From a data analytics perspective, a Top 8 means nothing in a vacuum. In Magic, any deck has the potential to win a given tournament. The odds depend heavily on the metagame and the deck's inherent strength, but luck and variance also play huge roles. Without additional data about the tournament, there's no way of knowing whether a player won because theirs was the best deck period, the best positioned, or the Random Number God simply chose them. This is annoying generally, but especially so in this case, as it was the first chance to see how paper Magic differs from MTGO in 18 months. But with only a Top 8, the whole event is a waste for research and analysis.

Which is why I extend a big Thank You to u/jsilv on reddit for finding (on their own initiative as far as I know) the decklists for the Top 45 from MTG Las Vegas. It's still a bit lacking as I don't have anything to compare it to, but much better than before. Again, bravo!

The Top 45

It's a bit unorthodox to do a Top 45 rather than the Top 32. Especially when prizes only extended to the Top 32. Apparently, CFB went with a very top-heavy prize structure to avoid being burned by low turnout. Joke's on them; 1434 players came out for the Modern event. That's better than any Grand Prix in years. Players really are that desperate to play in person. That the Gathering aspect really is just that important (take note, Wizards). So, did the high turnout result in a very diverse field that reflects the differences between paper and digital play?

Deck NameTotal #
Hammer Time7
Amulet Titan4
Yorion Cascade3
4-Color Control3
4-Color Blink3
Grixis DRC3
Cascade Crashers3
Jund Saga2
Yawgmoth2
GDS2
Jund Sacrifice2
UR Thresh2
Hardened Scales1
Infect1
Rakdos Rock1
4-Color Creativity1
UW Control1
Death and Taxes1
Blue Living End1
Naya Zoo1
Esper Reanimator1
Belcher1

Disappointingly, this metagame spread wouldn't look out of place in the Challenge results. Hammer Time dominating the placements with an assortment of Cascade and 4-Color piles chasing it is what I've come to expect for the metagame updates, mostly. The exceptions are a lack of UW Control and a considerable Amulet Titan presence. The former is curious given its metagame positioning. I am guessing that the longer games took a toll on the pilots and play errors caught up and caused UW Control to drop off, but that is only a guess without Day 2 data. It's equally possible that players shied away from UW for fear of the aforementioned exhaustion. The 4-Color Control deck is more forgiving and easier to pilot, which might explain its better performance.

Amulet Titan is a very clear deviation from the online trend. It's fallen off massively since June and struggles to make the Tiers anymore. I have no idea why this happened. I'm told that online players abandoned the deck, having decided it wasn't good enough. Which makes no sense to me, particularly because there doesn't seem to be any reason. I've interrogated my sources and they just shrug and say "that's the conclusion." No further explanation, no reasons given. However, Amulet's performance here is as strong a statement as can be that no, the deck absolutely remains competitive in Modern.

The Top 8

The Top 8 is quite notable not just for what's there but what isn't there. Hammer Time didn't place a single deck, despite being most popular. Looking through the deck lists, it makes sense. There's plenty of answers for Hammer Time between sideboards and maindeck. Players expected Hammer and were ready. Well done there. However, that left plenty of room for unexpected decks to slip through.

Deck NameTotal #Top 45 Conversion Rate
Amulet Titan250%
Hardened Scales1100%
Infect1100%
Jund Saga150%
Rakdos Rock1100%
4-Color Creativity1100%
4-Color Control133%

Edwin Colleran won on Rakdos Rock, so props to him. Half the Top 8 are Top 45 singletons. It's the old rogue deck dream of leaving opponents high and dry with the unexpected. Of course, unexpected is relative; all these were known decks. However, Rakdos Rock spent a lot of the past year sidelined while Hardened Scales and Infect aren't metagame decks. Creativity was doing pretty well for a while, but really fell off recently. As mentioned, Amulet Titan is technically off-meta, though it put the most decks into Top 8. Only Jund Saga and 4-Color Control are expected meta decks. It is interesting that Scales was able to Top 8 despite all the splash damage from Hammer Time sideboarding.

Of course, just because decks are technically off-meta doesn't make them innovative. In fact, I'd appraise all these lists as stock lists. I'm not saying that each list is copied from online or that there isn't variation. Rather, every list is exactly within what I'm used to seeing as I comb lists for the metagame update. There's not much technology on display. The most interesting choice was Jeff Jao running 4 maindeck Phyrexian Crusaders. It's a brilliant choice but not one that Infect typically makes. However, this is the time, as red and white are the primary removal colors in Modern now. Fury, Lightning Bolt, Unholy Heat, Solitude, and Prismatic Ending are the most played removal spells these days, and Crusader blanks them all. Only 5 decks in the Top 45 ran Fatal Push, and of those only 2 deck did mainboard. A brilliant metagame call.

Paper vs. Digital

I can't say with certainty why the paper metagame at MTG Las Vegas looked like typical online metagame. I would guess that players, having not played much in a long time, just played whatever they played online. However, that simultaneously feels like a cop out answer since Amulet Titan did so well in paper but doesn't show up online. It is quite possible that the Amulet players were all Amulet specialists before the pandemic and just updated their lists. That would be consistent with how things used to be. However, I'd need more events to gauge what's actually happening. So here's hoping that there will be more in the near future.

Five Magic Things I’m Thankful For

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I've had plenty in my life to be thankful for this year. This is true for me in Magic as well. As we approach the end of 2021, I'd like to take a moment to reflect on all the Magic-related things I'm thankful for in 2021.

The Gathering

The return of in-store play has been amazing. It's wonderful seeing friends on a regular basis once more after not seeing many of them for nearly two years. My Local Game Store (LGS) has done everything it can to keep events safe and fun. I applaud the safety measure they've taken and continue to take so that we can all keep the Gathering in Magic: The Gathering.

Limited

2021 has been a great year for Limited. While I was not a huge fan of Kaldheim, I've enjoyed pretty much every format we've played this year, including Adventures In The Forgotten Realms. The pinnacle for Limited this year though was certainly Modern Horizons 2. The set called to mind for me memories of the first Modern Masters set. it is impressively deep, beyond the obvious archetypes. I've drafted it numerous times, and continue to find something new to explore every time I sit down at the draft table. I hope to experience the set at least one more time before the end of the year.

Completing Invasion Block Cube

I made it a pandemic project to finally finish my Invasion Block Cube this year. To do so, I reached out to my network of Magic friends and acquaintances. With their cooperation, I was able to trade for the bulk of what I was missing. A few purchases from my LGS and from online brought the project to completion. Now, the Cube is draftable, and our first Invasion draft night was a blast. I've said before that Invasion is my all-time favorite Limited format. It brought a lot of joy to me to share that format with friends, and allow them to experience it for the first time. Thank you to everyone who contributed to it.

Joining Quiet Speculation

Joining Quiet Speculation first as a content creator, and then as the Director of Content has been an absolute pleasure. We have a fantastic team of creative folks working together to put out quality content. I'm continually inspired by the sheer joy everyone brings to Magic, regardless of the topics they cover, and to their work. I have to give a shoutout to Tyler, Danny, Kelly, and everyone else on the team for believing in me as the Director of Content, and their enthusiasm for where things are heading. We have plenty of excitement coming in 2022. Want to join us? We still have a number of content creator roles we are looking to fill as we move forward.

All of Our Readers

None of this would be possible without the support of our readers, especially our Insiders. If you enjoy the content we offer and want access to powerful collection management and pricing tools, please consider becoming a QS Insider. It's the best way you can directly support the website. We have lots of Insider-exclusive content in the works for 2022, so get on board now so you don't miss out on a single thing. On behalf of everyone here at Quiet Speculation, thank you for your readership and your support. It means the world to all of us.

Passed Priority

What are you thankful for this year, in life and in Magic? Let me know in the comments and on Twitter.

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Paul Comeau

Paul is Quiet Speculation's Director of Content. He first started playing Magic in 1994 when he cracked open his first Revised packs. He got interested in Magic Finance in 2000 after being swindled on a trade. As a budget-minded competitive player, he's always looking to improve his knowledge of the metagame and the market to stay competitive and to share that knowledge with those around him so we can all make better decisions. An avid Limited player, his favorite Cube card is Shahrazad. A freelance content creator by day, he is currently writing a book on the ‘90s TCG boom. You can find him on Twitter and LinkedIn.

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Getting Back to the Heart of Commander

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Keeping a Competitive Game Social

What do you love about the Commander format? The engaging opportunities for card interaction? Drawing from a massive card pool spanning nearly 30 years? The chance to show off your hard-to-find original print or foil cards? The rewards for each individual and playgroup vary wildly.

A fairly universal payoff, however, is when you find a card that just seems perfect for an existing deck. This process of continual refinement is integral to Magic itself, however, there is a cost, especially socially, as your deck becomes more and more refined.

There are many good things to be said about cEDH and high-powered deck design, but, the original intent of the format has always been about emphasizing the social aspects of Magic; if it takes longer to shuffle than to play out the game it probably was not fun. (We've all been there!)

That's where the Heart of Commander comes in; a moderation of play aimed at achieving a meaningful, social experience for the vast majority of Magic players. This vision lines up with Magic creator Richard Garfield's own ideas about the game.

Quoted in "Leader of the Banned", an old but strong article about how the original design team wanted to handle powerful cards early in Magic's life, Garfield said: "I expected playgroups to moderate themselves. This is the way it always is in hobby games—no one played by all of a game's rules, and every playgroup tweaked it to meet their own group's tastes."

With that ideal in mind, here are five guidelines I use to build Commander decks that enhance the social experience while avoiding a win at all costs mentality. (Don't worry the cEDH follow-up articles will completely deny the existence of this one.)

Interaction

In my experience, a lot of Commander groups score extremely low on the Interaction Scale. Let's say you have two creatures: a 2/2 with Flying that gets +1/+1 counters and another that gets +1/+1 counters and has
 Flying, Lifelink, Hexproof, Double-Strike, Haste, and Protection from your Opponents. For the time being assume they are roughly the same mana cost, dollar cost, and availability; why would a player ever choose the first creature over the second? The Heart of Commander that's why! Rather than pick cards based purely on power, you opt for lower-powered but nostalgic cards that are playable, have deck synergy, and will result in longer, more interactive games. Interaction is not solely about card power, however.

Take a journey with me to circa 1999 in a set called Mercadian Masques and let's talk about:

Flailing Soldier and Friends

Is Flailing Soldier, a 2/2 for one red mana, the most interactive one drop in Magic's history? If the table needs to gang up on a player that is winning, Flailing Soldier and Friends gives you a way to do that. A card like Serra Ascendant, while greater in raw power for the same one mana, just does not. Where one card is massive value for one mana, the other opens up table talk, diplomatic strategy, and a mana mini-game all on its own - it promotes Interaction and gets the table involved.

Of course, there will be times that fellow players don't pick up what Flailing Soldier puts down. Sometimes he just dies right away. Even in death, Flailing Soldier gets a name. His name is Interaction.

Theme

This is probably the most widely recognized idea behind many Commander decks, but, I want to impress upon you all that Theme is not to be taken lightly! In my very first Commander deck, I had a theme—everyone's favorite—Land Destruction! (Yes I can hear the e-Boos from here.)

I figured in a format with generally high mana cost spells and multi-colored commanders that destroying land would be the most efficient way to shut down my opponents and get the W. Resolving a Jokulhaups or Armageddon on turn three or four was oftentimes enough to maybe not win outright but to massively stall and frustrate everyone playing. Letting people play their cards is, generally, a lot more fun than just shutting everything down, who would have known?

So yes there I was with my "Theme" and I did a good job on that angle. What could my deck do? Well, it could destroy lands and destroy more lands. The takeaway here is my strict adherence to the theme—that was the part that worked—Letting everyone at the table have fun, not so much. So how do we take that idea, turn it up to 11, and remove the land destruction?

Finding An Interesting Theme

My current best example is my Atraxa, Praetors' Voice deck (save the groans I assure you!) - this deck is all about
.Deathtouch! Virtually all non-land cards, and as many of the lands as possible—I'm pointing at you Hissing Quagmire—have the word "Deathtouch" printed on them. Many of them are creatures that simply have Deathtouch, but, I also have cards like Mwonvuli Beast Tracker as a Deathtouch Tutor—and for bonus points, this deck also contains three distinct "Subthemes"—"Lose the Game Touch", "All the Abilities" and to a much lesser extent "+1/+1 counters" (I mean I am running Atraxa).

Deathtouch Subthemes

If a card does not have or say "Deathtouch" - it had better have tremendous thematic synergy with one or all of the subthemes or it does NOT go in the deck.

My First Time Playing Atraxa

Me: Play a guy with Deathtouch, go.
Them: Oh what card is that?
Me: It's just a 1/2 with Deathtouch.
Them: Huh okay. Play a mana rock.
Me: Play a guy with Deathtouch, go.
Them: Oh what is that? Oh, Deathtouch. Okay, play a guy, pass.
Me: (tap mana cast creature) Pass.
Them: What does

Me: Deathtouch.
Them: Ha ha ha!
Me next turn: Cast this guy.
Them: Deathtouch?
Me: Deathtouch.
Everyone: Proceed to have fun laughing while explaining every ability, every play sequence, everything as "Deathtouch".

After this game not only were the other players enthusiastic about exploring some themes they may not have considered but one of them took out their binder and started pulling every card they could see with Menace (I don't know how that deck build went but I did tell him if he named the deck anything other than "Dennis" he was doing it wrong).

I've used this same idea for a few different Themes like unblockable creatures with Ophidian/Curiosity subtheme, Mono-Red Enchantments, "Giants", Wall of Text, X/X, and others. These decks vary vastly in power level (generally from Low to Lower) but they never fail to spark the imagination of my fellow Magic players and, again, that is the Heart of Deathto
Commander.

History

Magic is nearly 30 years old. Originally, Magic's designers thought that people would buy a sealed deck or two and a few packs of cards and that's it. The original intention was that you would likely see completely new cards every time you played someone new. The idea that someone plays cards you have never seen is also part of the Heart of Commander. Many players lean heavily on a few sets, perhaps, the few sets in print when they first started playing. There is a rich and vast History of cards (some of which are very inexpensive!) just waiting to be explored and brought into your Commander games. Many players only need a little push; consider this your push! Go, Gather the Magics and play a few cards you have never seen before - maybe you will find some new favorites!

Variety

A long time ago I found that I was running many of the same cards in every deck because, well, they were the best cards. The problem is that playing the same cards made every game feel the same. according to Alex Barker in the article "How Does Commander Color Identity Work?" there are 32 distinct color identities. If you have questions about the color identities of Commander, I strongly suggest reading his article. With color identity in mind, I felt that I should only have one deck to represent each combination. Based on my other build philosophies *virtually none* of my Commander decks run the same cards. This way every game really feels completely and distinctly different. All of this can only be achieved with an eye towards Variety which is not only the spice of life but also the Heart of Commander!

Memes

Ah yes, the wondrous meme deck. Mine was The Boat Deck. After dismantling my hated Land Destruction deck, I wanted to make a deck with a ridiculous build restriction that was very simple: every single card had to have a picture of a boat on it. Every card, no exceptions! The first and most celebrated Commander for this deck was Skeleton Ship. How can a Commander deck with Skeleton Ship win even a single game? Well, not being considered a threat can sometimes be the best strategy of all! Plus, this allowed me to use boat puns regularly. The Heart of The Boat Deck is the Heart of Commander, find a silly theme and build it - memes create memories!

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Joe Mauri

Joe has been an avid MTG player and collector since the summer of 1994 when he started his collection with a booster box of Revised. Millions of cards later he still enjoys tapping lands and slinging spells at the kitchen table, LGS, or digital Arena. Commander followed by Draft are his favorite formats, but, he absolutely loves tournaments with unique build restrictions and alternate rules. A lover of all things feline, he currently resides with no less than five majestic creatures who are never allowed anywhere near his cards. When not Gathering the Magic, Joe loves streaming a variety of games on Twitch(https://www.twitch.tv/beardymagics) both card and other.

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Direct or Not to Direct

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This past week I got an invite from TCGplayer to turn my store into a Direct store. I had only once received a similar email, during the early stages of the Pandemic when the major retailers closed and my online sales spiked hard. Previously, there were pretty stringent requirements to be invited into the Direct program. The site currently shows the following requirements:

 

Interestingly, my store does not meet the requirements. I am not close to 100 sales per month nor do I have an inventory of 3000 cards listed. This implies that they may be changing or updating those requirements.

Still, I got the email and it's something I wanted to dig into.  As a small-time seller, I don't have to devote a lot of time each day to packaging and selling cards. I have a limited inventory of around 2000 cards and throughout my store's existence, I have probably averaged somewhere between 1-5 sales per day. Thus, this is not something that eats into my free time enough to make me want to immediately jump on board.

Fee Comparison

As a business, my goal is to maximize my profit, so logically the first step in our decision-making process is to compare the fee structures. The chart below is their fee breakdown.

Obviously, the last bit of information we need is the Direct Replacement Shipping Cost breakdown.

Real-Life Examples

I realize that's a lot to take in so we will do some quick examples to help make sense of it all. Here are 4 of my more recent sales fully broken down (keep in mind, I am NOT currently a direct seller).

Card Name Qty Sale Price ($) TCGPlayer Shipping Cost ($) TCGPlayer Fee Amount ($) TCGPlayer Net Total ($) Actual Shipping ($) Final Take Home ($)
Dowsing Dagger 1 $3.25 $1.15 $0.87 $3.53 $0.50 $3.03
Kruin Outlaw 1 $4.00 $1.15 $0.97 $4.18 $0.50 $3.68
Torpor Orb 3 $59.97 $1.15 $8.22 $52.90 $3.75 $49.15
Sudden Spoiling 1 $2.99 $1.15 $0.84 $3.30 $0.50 $2.80

 

The last column is arguably the most important, as it is my final "take-home" from each sale. Now let's look at those sales as if they were made using Direct, using the above tables for our calculations.

Card Name Qty Sale Price ($) Estimated Direct Fee Amount ($) TCGplayer Replacement Shipping ($) Final Take Home ($)
Dowsing Dagger 1 $3.25 $0.67 $0.98 $1.60
Kruin Outlaw 1 $4.00 $0.76 $0.98 $2.26
Torpor Orb 3 $59.97 $7.17 $3.14 $49.66
Sudden Spoiling 1 $2.99 $0.64 $0.98 $1.37

Comparing the two options, the only time I come out better with Direct is on the larger more expensive orders. One of the biggest factors in this "Final Take Home" difference is the fact that non-Direct sellers get to have their shipping cost added to the order, whereas, Direct sellers never see a dime of the shipping cost.

However, if this were all that was involved you would likely see very few Direct sellers.

Why Bother then?

You are likely asking yourself why bother with Direct at all if you're far more likely to make less money per sale. There are two additional factors to take into account. One may be somewhat obvious for those who often buy from Direct sellers on TCGplayer. Direct sellers tend to price their cards higher than TCGLow, where many of us have to price our cards to sell them. Below is a random sampling of a list of cards I came up with, in which I compared the lowest-priced TCGplayer Non-Direct option versus the lowest priced Direct TCGplayer option. I eliminated options that were not at least LP in condition, and I added in the shipping cost for the non-direct option.

Card Name Lowest Cost Option Lowest Cost Direct Option Direct “Surcharge” Percent
Goldspan Dragon $27.29 $35.84 23.86%
Karn, Scion of Urza $7.25 $8.39 13.59%
Teferi, Hero of Dominaria $22.99 $24.61 6.58%
Torpor Orb $16.97 $25.50 33.45%
Inspiring Statuary $4.63 $5.46 15.20%
Snapcaster Mage $40.99 $45.33 9.57%
Urza's Saga $22.99 $27.03 14.95%
Esper Sentinel $16.99 $18.99 10.53%
Flooded Strand $32.99 $39.89 17.30%
Alrund's Epiphany $9.49 $9.99 5.01%
Wrenn and Seven $15.25 $19.59 22.15%
Memory Deluge $5.49 $6.94 20.89%
Craterhoof Behemoth $39.99 $42.28 5.42%
Rhystic Study $27.99 $33.85 17.31%
Breeding Pool $18.59 $21.83 14.84%
Hallowed Fountain $7.70 $9.00 14.44%

 

While this is obviously a small sample size, I think it's fair to assume that the true "Direct Surcharge" likely falls in the 15-20% range, with this sample average 15.32%. This implies you can likely sell your cards for around 15-20% more per card by using the TCGplayer Direct platform.

The second factor is sales volume. I talked to several Direct store owners and the overall consensus is that you are likely to see somewhere between 2x and 4x your current sales volume switching to Direct. So you may make less per sale, but if you get a lot more sales your overall income may go up.

Dead Zones

I would like to thank one of our QS members who were invaluable to the writing of this article, biospark88, who runs a Direct store, and who provided a good bit of insight on the matter. One key point he mentioned was the "dead zones," which can be especially bad for Direct sellers. To begin though, it is critical to keep in mind that for non-direct, TCGplayer recommends tracking on all orders above $20; but does not require it. Tracking is only required on orders above $50. For this reason, you often see a lot of $51 cards going for $49.99 or some other amount below $50, as it costs around $3.75 to ship a tracked bubble mailer, whereas it costs only around $0.6 to send a plain white envelope. Thus, there are certain price ranges that cause you as a seller to come out worse by charging more. This is especially true with TCGplayer Direct, as they triple the "shipping replacement" fee between $19.99 and $20. Thus, you will rarely see TCGplayer Direct cards priced anywhere between $20-$24.

On a similar note, you'll see that on everything under $2.99, you only get 50% in the end. This can still be great for bulk cards that you are unlikely to ever sell regularly, as getting even $0.05 on a true bulk common or uncommon is great.

Final Comparison Chart

After all this research, I still need to decide whether I want to go Direct or not. This next chart is a direct comparison chart that includes a 20% "Direct Surcharge" to help make my decisions easier.

TCGLow Value TCGplayer Fees (ignoring sales tax) Total Profit TCGplayer Direct Price TCGplayer Direct Fees Direct Total Profit
$1.00 $0.43 $1.72 $1.20 $0.60 $0.60
$1.50 $0.49 $2.16 $1.80 $0.90 $0.90
$2.00 $0.56 $2.60 $2.40 $1.20 $1.20
$2.50 $0.62 $3.03 $3.00 $1.62 $1.38
$3.00 $0.68 $3.47 $3.60 $2.54 $1.06
$3.50 $0.75 $3.90 $4.20 $1.66 $2.54
$4.00 $0.81 $4.34 $4.80 $1.53 $3.27
$4.50 $0.87 $4.78 $5.40 $1.60 $3.80
$5.00 $0.94 $5.21 $6.00 $2.65 $3.35
$5.50 $1.00 $5.65 $6.60 $4.88 $1.72
$6.00 $1.07 $6.09 $7.20 $1.80 $5.40
$6.50 $1.13 $6.52 $7.80 $2.37 $5.43
$7.00 $1.19 $6.96 $8.40 $1.94 $6.46
$7.50 $1.26 $7.39 $9.00 $2.10 $6.90
$8.00 $1.32 $7.83 $9.60 $2.08 $7.52
$8.50 $1.38 $8.27 $10.20 $2.15 $8.05
$9.00 $1.45 $8.70 $10.80 $2.22 $8.58
$9.50 $1.51 $9.14 $11.40 $2.29 $9.11
$10.00 $1.58 $9.58 $12.00 $2.35 $9.65

 

The key here is that the Direct option is likely better for those whose sales are often above $10 TCGLow. Once a sale gets past $10 TCGLow, you come out ahead using Direct.

So lastly, I need to determine what the value of my average sales is. Luckily, I track my sales in a spreadsheet so I can easily find that my averages over the last 3 years are; 2021-$10.63, 2020- $7.62, 2019- $11.63. So 2 of the last 3 years are above $10 per average sale. However, digging a bit deeper than the overall average, if I eliminate just the top 10 high dollar sales from each year, my overall average falls well below $10 in all 3 years. Thus, for the time being, I will not be moving to Direct. The reason I did this was to eliminate a couple of potential outliers from skewing the data too highly, which the results indicate they did.

Conclusion

While my final verdict was to stick to maintaining my regular non-Direct TCGplayer storefront, the circumstances for each individual will vary and I suggest you follow my logical path with your own data to make your final decision.

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David Schumann

David started playing Magic in the days of Fifth Edition, with a hiatus between Judgment to Shards. He's been playing Commander since 2009 and Legacy since 2010.

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