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With the rampant buyouts and crazy price spikes taking place on a daily basis, I’ve been distracted by the less-than-playable cards. It’s for good reason: these are the cards I’m most inclined to sell / flip for a quick buck.
Despite this focus, I haven’t lost sight of what’s going on in the broader market. I’ve started getting questions on Twitter about the time to sell and how they should sell older cards. As prices continue to climb on Dual Lands and the like, the opportunity to cash out to pay for “real life” necessities becomes all the more tempting to folks.
But I wouldn’t rush to sell out just yet. This week I’m going to touch on a couple factors that highlight why selling now could still be “too early”, and that there still remains a decent amount of upside.
The Buylist Wars
Here’s a challenge for you: what is the highest buy price you can find on the internet for a near mint Revised Underground Sea?
This is a bit of a loaded question, because it feels like the number changes on a daily basis. As of February 7th at 7:50AM EST (I tend to write these articles pretty early in the morning), here are the buy prices from a few major online vendors:
Card Kingdom: $730
Star City Games: $750
ABUGames: $673.20 ($1045 in store credit though)
Channel Fireball: $730
These are all aggressive buy numbers, and such competitive buylists will likely provide a floor for the card’s price in the coming weeks. If the rise in price on Underground Sea was a short-term, market manipulation type event I don’t know if vendors would be offering such high numbers on the card. This is a bullish sign.
Then there’s the international component, something I haven’t discussed in quite a while. International arbitrage still exists, but it’s much more challenging in a COVID environment. At one point in time, Americans could not order cards from some Japanese vendors due to shipping restrictions. That certainly puts up a major barrier.
Perhaps that’s what’s driving some ludicrous buy prices in Japan. This list was posted three weeks ago, well in advance of some of the price increases within the U.S.
For reference, a USD is worth about 105 Yen. A simple rule of thumb is to cut off two zeroes and round down a little bit to determine prices in US Dollars. Therefore, a buy price of 120,000 Yen for a near mint Revised Underground Sea equates to something in the neighborhood of $1,100! Their Volcanic Island buy price is equally strong, and Tropical Island’s is nothing to sneeze at.
Strong numbers out of Japan could definitely be influencing pricing within the U.S. That, and the fact that vendors appear to be competing somewhat aggressively to buy old cards. Buy prices are being adjusted frequently to try and stay competitive.
Beyond the Dual Lands, stores are also scrambling to buy your high-end, Old School cards. Card Kingdom is now paying $1040 on Moat, $1105 on Chains of Mephistopheles, and a whopping $1625 on Library of Alexandria!!
ABUGames has reacted by upping the store credit numbers they offer on such cards, though selling them anything for cash seems bad. Star City Games lags in some areas (they’re only paying $650 on Moat, for example) but they are ahead of the game in others! For starters, SCG pays an impressive $1750 for a near mint Library of Alexandria! Even their HP buy price of $1250 is attractively strong. Heavily played Libraries sold for $700 - $750 just a month or two ago!
Lastly, let’s touch briefly upon cards from Unlimited. It took a while, but in sudden, drastic moves the buy prices on Unlimited cards have exploded. A Black Lotus can be sold for $12,000—I think this number is still a bit low, though, because I don’t think heavily played copies can be found for under $10,000 anymore. After a temporary period where vendors paid more for Revised Duals than Unlimited Duals, the trend was finally corrected. Now Unlimited Duals are much more expensive; Underground Sea buylist is up to $1380 at Card Kingdom, Volcanic Island at $1100, and Tundra / Tropical Island are at $1200!
Even non-Reserved List, playable Unlimited cards have much higher prices. Card Kingdom is paying $250 for near mint Unlimited Birds of Paradise, for example, and $210 for Shivan Dragon.
These cards are not just climbing in price on MTG Stocks and TCGplayer. Vendors are following suit and this is a very good sign that higher prices will be around for a while.
Other Economic Factors
When vendors pay aggressively for cards, it instills confidence in the market. I don’t expect vendors take losing money lightly, so I suspect they will not be so quick to drop prices should the market soften (though they will eventually drop buy prices once they get some actual inventory!).
But the reality is, there are other economic factors at play here that will likely prop up this market for at least a little while longer.
First of all, we’re entering tax season. I honestly have no clue where my tax refund will stand this year after a wild 2020. However, it’s safe to assume many people, on average, will receive a refund. Every year during tax season, we see a strengthening in demand for Commander/Legacy/RL staples as players spend their refunds on Magic. This year offers no reason to expect an exception.
In fact, since everyone is still stuck at home in the pandemic, there’s less competition for tax refund dollars. Not many people will be choosing between a couple Dual Lands, a vacation, or tickets to a high-level sporting event. For the most part, we are all kind of…stuck.
Secondly, the U.S. government is actively pursuing another round of fiscal COVID relief, especially targeting working-class families. While fewer people may qualify, the amount of money issued per person is expected to be the highest amount yet. There will certainly be at least some folks who will put that money to use in their hobbies, including Magic.
Lastly, everything the fed is doing regarding monetary policy remains dovish. In other words, they’re doing everything they can to maintain liquidity for companies, leading to a steady flow of cash and a propped-up stock market. This may cause problematic inflation in the long term, but for now, it’s all gravy. Expect asset prices to remain frothy as long as this environment is unperturbed.
Others Chiming In
I’m not the only one who feels these elevated prices are here to stay, for at least a little while longer. I’ve outlined all the factors that are driving this market and will continue to drive prices higher. But don’t just take my word for it.
Paul Feudo is a frequent booth buyer at large Magic events, and he’s intimately familiar with Magic market dynamics. Therefore, I trust his views on all things MTG finance without question. Recently in response to a tweet of mine, Paul replied with the following dialogue:
Paul emphasized each of the points I made above, listing the catalysts that could drive prices even higher. Then Paul posted a fascinating Twitter poll…
Considering the buy price on a NM Revised Underground Sea is $700-$799 today, over 80% of respondents believe the buy price will be higher on June 1st of this year. Liz (@DevotedDruid), another highly respected booth buyer, chimed in with a more specific target:
There’s the other factor I mentioned: the international arbitrage. It has slowed, but has not halted. Long term, prices will equilibrate across region. And it’s more likely that prices in the U.S. increase rather than prices in Japan decreasing.
Don’t just take my word for it. Large vendors are buying aggressively and people who live and breathe Magic transaction week in and week out are also seeing higher prices. There’s a lot to unpack here, but the long of the short of it is, I think prices on the most desirable stuff goes up from here.
Wrapping It Up
If you message me on Twitter and ask when you should sell, don’t expect a direct answer. Especially as prices continue their relentless climb, there are so many personal factors that should go into the decision to sell. What debts do you currently maintain? Do you have robust health insurance? Do you have a 401k? What are your long term goals? Do you use the cards in decks?
All these questions and more are relevant when deciding whether or not to sell, especially as we’re easily talking about 4- or 5-figure collections.
Also, I should mention I have no crystal ball. I can’t time the market any more than anyone can.
What I will say, with all the support mentioned above, that I think we haven’t seen the “top” yet for card prices. As some of the less interesting, less useful cards in my collection spike in price, I will be strategically looking to trim back. I recently sold a Su-chi to a friend on Twitter because I had no use for the card and could offer an attractive price. Likewise, I didn’t mind selling my spare Force of Will, since it appears out of scope for all the rampant buying going on.
But as for my Underground Seas and the like? I have no plans to sell anytime soon. These cards are in decks, and I don’t want to make those decks worse at this point. If there was a sudden major expense in my life, of course I would not hesitate from liquidating. But as long as I don’t need the money, I’m not going to liquidate. Not yet, anyway.
When asked what Underground Sea would have to be before I’d consider selling, my answer is surprisingly direct: $2500-$3000 (for my heavily played, Unlimited copies mind you). That gives you a frame of reference for where I’m at. Do I think we’ll actually get there? Not in 2021. But someday, it seems very possible—now more than ever.
I'll note that this is the lowest threshold I've had so far. Then we go one standard deviation above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff to Tier 2. The STdev was 11.21, so that means Tier 3 runs to 18, and Tier 2 starts with 19 results and runs to 30. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 31 decks are required.
However, there is one thread that I haven't discussed much, and really need to. Only one deck has been Tier 1 in every full-month update: Rakdos Monastery Swiftspear. 
What Rakdos' quiet dominance means for Modern is unclear. This is an 
On that note, January also saw a lot of decks return. And for no perceivable reason. Izzet Prowess had fallen off massively, going from the top deck of 
Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. However, how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a decks that consistently just squeaks into Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8's. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile.
Saying that Challenges are worth the same as a Super Qualifier is facetious, and I had that driven home by participating in one. So, I've revised the power system.
Baseline was pretty low this time, but that's again a function of the huge number of singleton decks that only showed up as Prelim 3-1s. The addition of extra points pulled everyone up as well. But on that note, Jund and UW Spirits did better than everyone else! And then there's 4-C Omnath hitting a very high mark, thanks to very good results in the Super Qualifiers. Much higher than Tier 1 decks usually do on this chart. And that's troubling.
Let me just say: we've come a long way from the days of Savannah Lions. White weenies are more pushed than ever, with today's marquee example being Usher of the Fallen, a W-costed 2/1 with relevant typing and a token-generating effect that's sure to come up over the course of a tournament.
First up is Port of Karfell, a tapland which produces blue mana. Later in the game, so long as players have black mana kicking around, it sacrifices itself to reanimate a creature. Reanimate a creature! On a color-producing land!
Like Port of Karfell, Surtland Frostpyre seems most at home in combo-control decks, but it has a much more forgiving color requirement. 2 damage to each creature is often enough to dismantle a board out of creature combo decks, so once Frostpyre hits the battlefield, opponents are likely to be wary of how they deploy threats. In this way, the land generates a tempo advantage without necessarily being sacrificed, which can compensate for entering tapped.
Skemfar Elderhall has got to be a consideration for Elves going forward. A tapland in Elves? You betcha! The deck certainly floods if its lords are removed, so having lands around to channel into board presence will be greatly appreciated. And it also mulligans into dorks, making Skemfar a good way to claw back into the game.
The flagship new mechanic in Kaldheim, and mostly serves as a layaway-plan service for pricey spells. At least, given Dream Devourer and the large amount of unexciting three- and four-drops, it seems like that's how Wizards intended it: players can pay 2 mana when they have it, and then "complete" casting the spell at a later date. In some cases, the process leads to landing your four-drop a turn early, but it was still overpaid for in terms of mana (none of these cards have a very impressive rate). 
Right Back Atcha
Weathered Runestone does come off as a Cage retrain; it costs an extra mana, which given Damping Sphere seems like the price point Wizards is comfortable with for colorless lock pieces. Still, it's not necessarily strictly worse than grandaddy Cage. While Cage only prevents creature permanents from entering the battlefield from graveyards and libraries, Runestone prevents all nonland permanents, which extends to planeswalkers, artifacts, and enchantments.
Up next is Masked Vandal, a standard two-drop that pops an artifact or enchantment when it enters the fray. Also worth noting is that Vandal exiles the target, which in this day and age is a big upgrade over destroy.
Halvar is a four-mana 4/4 that grants double strike to the pilot's equipped or enchanted creatures. As a bonus, it attaches one of those already-attached cards to another creature at the beginning of combat, should players want. While that second ability's nothing to write home about, the first one definitely is, especially considering the equipment that's currently played in Modern.
Egon is a three-mana 6/6 with the drawback of taxing players to self-exiles from the grave each upkeep. By itself, Egon would be severely outclassed by Rotting Regisaur, which 
Birgi, God of Storytelling is the most combo-slanted of the Gods, and both sides seem tailor-made for a deck 
On the literal flip side, the five-mana Harnfel, Horn of Bounty gives the card some extra utility where a mana creature would be redundant or less useful. The Horn lets players discard a card to essentially draw 2 on a combo turn; in other words, it greatly reduces chances of fizzling. Having this kind of haymaking back-end may well make Birgi an attractive option over Electromancer and Baral.
First up is 
Jund never really goes away, even though we've heard about the tried-and-true Rock strategy recently 
Deploying at instant speed so players can keep up mana for countermagic
Way back when, before Modern was even announced, I was just dabbling in Magic and aimlessly picking up cards I thought looked cool. Among them was a brand-new playset of Liquimetal Coating. There are tons of efficient artifact removal cards, after all, and what a trip it would be to gun down enemy lands with them!
Look, Ma! No Uro! And no Ancient Grudge, either. 
Hammer Time is basically Infect: they have the exact same gameplan. Sometimes, it's literally Infect thanks to Inkmoth Nexus. Unlike Infect, it's actually having metagame impact right now. Also unlike Infect, I'm skeptical that it will maintain much of a presence in Modern. I was underwhelmed by Hammer Time and moved on pretty quickly.
capable of beating combo decks (that's exactly what my Legacy version was doing all week), but to be good against the overall Modern metagame, I can't play all the anti-combo cards. They take too many sideboard slots and are too narrow in Modern's context. I was debating just pushing forward and hope to dodge combo after a few 4-1 results.
an issue, of course I was going to play Spirits. I didn't know how to build Spirits for the current metagame, so I just copied MTGO Trophy grinder and Spirits specialist 
First round was a loss to 8-Crab Mill. In game 1, my opponent has three crabs on turn three, and that's not really raceable. Game 2 I'm 1 damage short, and I feel like I missed it somewhere. Alternatively, one more counterspell wins the game. Also, I was very annoyed because I'd been playing a single Gaea's Blessing in DnT for this very deck, but hadn't seen Mill in the Leagues and didn't bother with Spirits. Huge tilt there.
Modern playable. Double whammy of too expensive and too small an effect. There are also a few cards that benefit snow permanents, in particular Jorn, God of Winter. Problem is that Jorn is slow; Modern can already mass-untap permanents, and those effects don't see play. Which makes snow seem like a bust.
No other tournaments, just FNM. And he will, absolutely will, be playing Fumarole so he can kill something and drop Ensnaring Bridge or Karn, the Great Creator in the same turn. He will do so several times a match because that was just how those matches went. I can already feel my blood boiling with frustration and barely restrained rage.
playability. However, it also synergizes with Sheets. Lore will scry a max of five cards in a snow deck, meaning it can be used to draw the three cards you want/need on the opponent's end step and then set up a Sheets activation. Which is a bit niche but a huge card advantage swing.
First up, I'm certain that In Search of Greatness will see in play in Modern. Again, it's because I know a very specific player will play it against me assuming I ever see him again. He's tried to make 
as Magical Christmasland as one would imagine (I've seen those devotion decks do very nutty things surprisingly often). However, is Greatness an effect that such a deck needs? It's surprisingly easy to ramp into turn three Nissa as is, though doing so precludes also dropping Ugin the same turn. However, all of this is assuming that Greatness would actually ramp the deck. Greatness doesn't count itself, so there's no playing Greatness in a vacuum and getting a three drop. The only way to jump the curve is to have additional permanents besides Greatness, and the opponent will probably have something to say about that. And without permanents in hand at the start of upkeep that qualify, all Greatness does is scry 1. Which isn't nothing, but it's not good enough.
And immediately I saw a 
that you think it as, which is why Rosewater seems rather worried about its implications. Trickery counters a spell, mills between 1-3 cards, and then casts the next spell with a different name in the target's library. Any spell. Which could be a better one than was countered, so it will never be used defensively without 
