| Quiet Speculation

What’s the Deal With Zendikar Rising Expeditions?

Posted on February 2, 2021February 1, 2021 by Joseph Davidson

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I was in a Discord group chat with some of my friends hanging out and playing some Halo (who would have thought I'd be spending time playing Halo again in the year 2021?) when my friend the_astro blurted out something along the lines of, "oh holy cow you guys did you know that the new expedition Creeping Tar Pit is less than four dollars right now?" After getting shot a few more times by our very own Chroberry (a Halo 2 expert, apparently), I started digging through the Zendikar Rising Expeditions to see what was what.

I know that going into the set, there was a lot of complaining on Twitter (what else is new) related to people not being a fan of their art and them bringing prices down in general, but as always I stand by the idea that investing in non-foil "bling" is a good idea. Competitive players in search of fun, unique, cards will gravitate towards cards like these - and while investing in these particular expeditions is likely a long-term investment, I think a lot of these are at a good place to start picking them up.

Okay, enough of the introduction, let's get down to business and take a look at five Zendikar Rising Expeditions I think are good spec targets.

Creeping Tar Pit

Let's start with the one that originally caught the_astro's attention: Creeping Tar Pit. This particular creature land might not be seeing as much play as it used to (I have some very fond memories of being beaten down by tar pits early on in my Magic career) but it still sees play in decks taking down 5-0 results on Magic Online during the Pandemic and I don't see it completely leaving the formats it is legal in any time soon.

There have been several Modern UB lists to make 5-0 with several copies of Creeping Tar Pit in them. VanCrow took a UB control list featuring three Liliana of the Veil, two Jace, the Mind Sculptor, and a pair of Creeping Tar Pit to a 5-0 finish in a Modern league on MTGO on 1/19/21. You have to dig back almost an entire year to find Creeping Tar Pit featuring in Legacy 5-0 lists, but I think Modern alone is reason enough to pick up copies of this creature land and hold them for awhile. It's a great backup in UB control lists if you run out of threats, and I think this art is actually pretty sweet.

You can nab non-foil copies for under $4 a pop right now in most places, and if you decide you want to pick up foils as well $9 isn't a bad buy for these. Just be sure to keep an eye on their price growth once paper play resumes so you can sell at the right time.

Celestial Colonnade

After thinking about Creeping Tar Pit, my mind immediately went to another creature land that has been the bane of my mono-red existence in the past: Celestial Colonnade. Like its counterpart, this creature land is seeing less play than it used to, but it's a powerful addition to control lists and I think it will continue to shine for the same reasons I brought forth for the tar pit.

There have been a few Modern lists claiming 5-0s on MTGO lately featuring Celestial Colonnade, like a sweet WU list piloted by Soondubu that 5-0ed a Modern League on 1/22/21 with a single copy (plus both Teferi, Time Raveler and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria), and another sweet WU list piloted by _Luks in a league on 1/19/21 also featuring a single copy (and a full playset of Stoneforge Mystic.)

Non-foil copies of these are hovering around the $5 mark, which seems like a great price to be trading into them at, and even $12 for foils doesn't seem like a bad place for these if you don't mind being patient while you wait for them to increase in value.

Grove of the Burnwillows

Grove of the Burnwillows is another one of the classic utility lands that got reprinted in this round of expeditions. A staple of Legacy Lands lists, this is a classic that isn't likely to go out of style soon and whose price is hovering around the four dollar mark for non-foils - which I think is a great price to buy and trade into.

The Uro Omnath lists that have been popping up in Modern recently tend to feature a couple copies of the Grove, like the list that Kurusu too to a 5-0 finish in a Modern league on MTGO on 1/26/21. The list looks sweet - running Yorion, Sky Nomad as a companion and featuring the Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker + Restoration Angel[/combo] (and several more awesome combos.) Legacy-wise, Grove recently appeared in a 5c Loam list that Sol-e22558 took to a 5-0 finish in a Legacy league on MTGO on 1/23/21. Like many Legacy decks these days it runs several copies of [card]Oko, Thief of Crowns but also gets to sport full playsets of Chalice of the Void and Mox Diamond, which is neat.

I'm not sure how I feel about picking up a ton of copies of the foils at their current price (though if I were grinding trade tables I'd trade up into them) but like I mentioned earlier I think the four dollar mark for nonfoils is a great place to be picking them up and sitting on them long-term.

Blackcleave Cliffs

Blackcleave Cliffs was one of those lands I lusted over for my Modern decks but could never afford to easily pick up back in the day, but these Zendikar Rising expeditions have made owning cool looking copies of the card more affordable than ever!

Blackcleave Cliffs is seeing more play than ever in Modern right now, appearing in lists like a sick goblins deck that chris 0185 took to a 5-0 finish in a Modern League on MTGO on 1-26-21 and Fuuunk's Jund list that took a 5-0 in a Modern league three days later. Both of these decks are sweet as heck (especially goblins, I LOVE goblins) and rely heavily on Blackcleave Cliffs to help their mana. There are plenty of other lists relying on Blackleave Cliffs too, like the ever-popular Rakdos Death's Shadow lists, and this is one card I really believe will be seeing a dramatic uptick in price once large eternal format tournaments resume.

As always, I'm hot on picking up "bling" non-foil copies of cards for my speculating purposes, and I think the $11-$12 mark is a sweet price to be getting these at, especially if you're trading up in your buylisting adventures. Twenty dollar foils are a little out of my range when it comes to speculating, but I still think that's a decent price to get them at (especially if you want to be playing with foils in the future.)

The Fetchlands

Now, I want to briefly touch on the most popular of the reprints that came with these expeditions - the fetchlands. Fetchlands as a whole are in a weird spot right now, with the more popular (blue) ones commanding higher prices as usual and the others all lagging behind. Windswept Heath in particular is in a sweet spot for picking up non-foil copies.

I'm personally not going hard on any of these fetches except the ones that I want to play with, but when the opportunity arises to be picking these up in trades or at my LGS for cheap I always take it. Unless the fetches are reprinted incredibly significantly with the next reprint (we know one is coming) I think every fetch will see decent increases in price long-term, especially if major events start up in force in the next year or so. It's never a bad idea to be holding a stock of fetches.

Well folks, that's it from me this week! I hope you had a great January and are staying well and safe. Feel free to come chat with me on my Twitch stream sometime, or reach out in the QS Discord, on Twitter, or my YouTube channel. I'm always happy to talk shop! I've been playing a lot of Kaldheim since the early access event, so expect to see me touch on the new set for my next couple of articles!

Holy Moly: Kaldheim Spoiler Review

Posted on February 1, 2021 by Jordan Boisvert

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Kaldheim is finally here and legal, and there's a lot to unpack in this relatively innocuous set. Among the cards I'm most excited for are a set of juicy effect lands, an intriguing foretell spell, some promising hate cards, and a new cycle of Gods more tailored to Modern than any previous incarnation. Let's dive in!

Landing Strip

Let me just say: we've come a long way from the days of Savannah Lions. White weenies are more pushed than ever, with today's marquee example being Usher of the Fallen, a W-costed 2/1 with relevant typing and a token-generating effect that's sure to come up over the course of a tournament.

While that about does it for pushed creatures, Kaldheim does feature a set of lands that greatly reward players for dipping into multiple colors. It seems Wizards seriously weighed the drawbacks of entering the battlefield tapped and running a multi-color manabase when they designed this cycle, as the effects they provide are probably enough to ensure the uncommons see Modern play.

Port of Karfell

First up is Port of Karfell, a tapland which produces blue mana. Later in the game, so long as players have black mana kicking around, it sacrifices itself to reanimate a creature. Reanimate a creature! On a color-producing land!

Since it enters tapped, Port is probably best-suited to combo-control decks that want to interact heavily but end the game with a reanimation effect. At present, few such decks exist in Modern. But we have decks like Ad Nauseam that happily run taplands (Temples) that advance their combo plan (in that case, by finding pieces), so I would bet Port is more of a "when" card than an "if."

It's not exactly Tier 1, but I do believe the Gyruda, Doom of Depths combo deck full of Clone effects will want this land, since it already misses turns by nature of its companion restriction. Gyruda is an "enters" trigger, and not a "cast" trigger, so even if opponents counter or strip the Kraken, Port offers players another way to access it.

Surtland Frostpyre

Like Port of Karfell, Surtland Frostpyre seems most at home in combo-control decks, but it has a much more forgiving color requirement. 2 damage to each creature is often enough to dismantle a board out of creature combo decks, so once Frostpyre hits the battlefield, opponents are likely to be wary of how they deploy threats. In this way, the land generates a tempo advantage without necessarily being sacrificed, which can compensate for entering tapped.

Then there's scry 2, a useful clause for digging up the right cards. I feel like some decks that might want this are the URx combo-control piles that replaced Splinter Twin, including Through the Breach and Kiki-Exarch. More dedicated combo strategies which lack a control bent, such as Storm, won't be interested.

Gates of Istfell

Next up is Gates of Istfell, more of a mid-game speed boost for control decks than anything. Control decks considered running Blighted Cataract in the past, and Gates gives that land a new spin: it enters tapped, sure, but then produces colored mana, and costs one less to sacrifice (sort of offsetting its primary drawback). Of course, players need to be in UW to wield it, unlike Cataract, but for decks that are, that's no problem. Celestial Colonnade: just how much worse is Gates? And would you run 5+?

Skemfar Elderhall

Skemfar Elderhall has got to be a consideration for Elves going forward. A tapland in Elves? You betcha! The deck certainly floods if its lords are removed, so having lands around to channel into board presence will be greatly appreciated. And it also mulligans into dorks, making Skemfar a good way to claw back into the game.

Most importantly, Elves will benefit greatly from both effects on this card. When it's sacrificed, they make a couple of tokens, which can be potent beaters alongside Lords or an army of buddies. And Skemfar doesn't stop there, giving an opponent's threat -2/-2. Since Elves is something of a combo deck, having the ability to remove annoying hatebears like Aven Mindcensor (which prevents searching) or Phyrexian Revoker (who can hold off an Eladamri alpha-strike) should give the deck a boost in playability.

Foretell Ur Information

The flagship new mechanic in Kaldheim, and mostly serves as a layaway-plan service for pricey spells. At least, given Dream Devourer and the large amount of unexciting three- and four-drops, it seems like that's how Wizards intended it: players can pay 2 mana when they have it, and then "complete" casting the spell at a later date. In some cases, the process leads to landing your four-drop a turn early, but it was still overpaid for in terms of mana (none of these cards have a very impressive rate). The main exception is Behold the Multiverse, a flexible instant sure to surface in the control builds that already run four-mana draw spells.

Right Back Atcha

In terms of missed opportunities, Wizards didn't get too creative with funky casting costs. But they did print a decisively funky foretell spell in Mystic Reflection, which content outlets have compared to being a counterspell, a removal spell, and a combo component all in one, joining Tibalt's Trickery as an oddball instant. Indeed, it can function as all of these things! But getting it to do everything for a deck requires some building around. Any ideas, Nexites?

Hi Hater

There's no Grafdigger's Cage or Ancient Grudge in Kaldheim! But there are a couple of interesting hate cards, and it's great to see Wizards is still exploring new design space with these.

Weathered Runestone

Weathered Runestone does come off as a Cage retrain; it costs an extra mana, which given Damping Sphere seems like the price point Wizards is comfortable with for colorless lock pieces. Still, it's not necessarily strictly worse than grandaddy Cage. While Cage only prevents creature permanents from entering the battlefield from graveyards and libraries, Runestone prevents all nonland permanents, which extends to planeswalkers, artifacts, and enchantments.

Still, I don't think that increase in reach is enough to guarantee much play for Runestone. If it prevented lands it would be a hot commodity, shutting off fetchlands (!!!) as well as utility such as Crucible of Worlds. As things stand, I can't think of many decks that cheat planeswalkers into play from the library, although Lurrus has recurred Wrenn and Six under my watch, and Whir of Invention certainly hates facing down this artifact.

Masked Vandal

Up next is Masked Vandal, a standard two-drop that pops an artifact or enchantment when it enters the fray. Also worth noting is that Vandal exiles the target, which in this day and age is a big upgrade over destroy.

What's truly unique about Vandal is its changeling ability, which lets it potentially fit into any tribal creature strategy. Changeling on a useful bear can be make-or-break, as we saw with the Humans, Merfolk, and Spirits-approved Unsettled Mariner. The only of those decks capable of producing green reliably is Humans, although we've seen the other two splash the color for Collected Company or other random tribesmen. Vandal probably won't have the same impact as Mariner, but it's definitely a card to watch out for, and one that will make its way into a few tribal lists. (Including Elves!)

Gods Forbid

Kaldheim's big selling point is the return of Gods, now in a two-sided package that gives players extra bang for their buck. While Gods have traditionally been expensive haymakers like Keranos, God of Storms, the Kaldheim ones are priced like regular Standard powerhouses, mostly sitting around the 3-4 mana mark. And they've got the added utility of being another spell should players lack even that kind of mana, a trait that makes them much more attractive to Modern decks.

Halvar, God of Battle / Sword of the Realms

Halvar is a four-mana 4/4 that grants double strike to the pilot's equipped or enchanted creatures. As a bonus, it attaches one of those already-attached cards to another creature at the beginning of combat, should players want. While that second ability's nothing to write home about, the first one definitely is, especially considering the equipment that's currently played in Modern.

Stoneforge Mystic's main objective in this format is to search up and cheat out Batterskull, a 4/4 vigilance lifelinker. With double strike, that germ turns a favorable board position into an insurmountable lead.But it's not like players even have to run a random 4/4 to assemble the combo, thanks to Halvar's other side: Sword of the Realms.

Sword is a sort-of playable equipment in its on rite, costing two mana to play or equip, and giving +2/+0 and vigilance to its holder. Even better, it returns the holder to the hand when it dies. That means Sword can be found with Stoneforge, so players only need run a single copy, and it stands to generate quite a bit of value on its own; slap one on your Stoneforge and opponents will be terrified of killing the 3/2, which now returns to the hand so it can search up a Batterskull and then loop itself all over again. In a deck with more creatures, the possibilities expand, as there are surely even better targets to grace with immortality.

Egon, God of Death / Throne of Death

Egon is a three-mana 6/6 with the drawback of taxing players to self-exiles from the grave each upkeep. By itself, Egon would be severely outclassed by Rotting Regisaur, which sees play in Unearth decks for its massive bulk. But if players can't or won't pay the upkeep cost, Egon trades into a new card, potentially even acting as a slow-trip for something more useful in tight situations. These many modes give the card added utility.

If that wasn't enough, though, Egon has a whole second side with Throne of Death, a one-mana artifact that mills pilots 1 on each upkeep. Besides generating velocity, Throne is also a draw engine, as players can pay 2B, tap it, and exile a creature from their graveyards to draw a card. As a one-mana artifact, I wonder if Throne itself doesn't have enough flexibility to make the cut in Urza-powered shells, which would have to go black to accommodate it. The milling fuels Uro and Emry, and Throne can be tapped for mana with Urza in play. Plus, there's the option of just dropping a 6/6 on dudes!

Birgi, God of Storytelling / Harnfel, Horn of Bounty

Birgi, God of Storytelling is the most combo-slanted of the Gods, and both sides seem tailor-made for a deck Wizards is supposedly allergic to: Storm. Birgi is a three-drop that adds R whenever players cast a spell, tying it in with Storm's other ritual creatures, Goblin Electromancer and Baral, Chief of Compliance. While those guys cost two and not three, they only give players an extra mana when a spell costing two or more is cast; conversely, Birgi adds a mana even when cantrips are cast, meaning the third mana spent to resolve it will probably pay for itself pretty fast on a combo turn. Still, players will have to wait an extra turn before going off, which could be a dealbreaker.

On the literal flip side, the five-mana Harnfel, Horn of Bounty gives the card some extra utility where a mana creature would be redundant or less useful. The Horn lets players discard a card to essentially draw 2 on a combo turn; in other words, it greatly reduces chances of fizzling. Having this kind of haymaking back-end may well make Birgi an attractive option over Electromancer and Baral.

Heaven on Earth

Yes, it's true: Kaldheim lacks alarm-raising brokenness, at least at first look. But there's plenty of toys here for Modern players, and it will be fun to watch the set shake itself into the Leagues over the coming weeks!

Bad Reserved List Cards Are Still Bad

Posted on February 1, 2021January 31, 2021 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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How’s everyone faring these wild Reserved List buyouts these days? Frankly, I’m baffled that the trend has extended to include unplayable cards from sets like Mirage, Alliances, and Ice Age. There were many odd, rarely-used Reserved List cards in those sets that are now being targeted on a daily basis.

I mean…Winter's Chill…really?!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Winter's Chill

Unless someone is trying to create an amusing meme, given last week was a cold one in much of the Northern Hemisphere, I can’t honestly justify ever purchasing this card. Halls of Mist at least does something easily understood (though it’s still awful). Unless you’re telling me the return of snow in Kaldheim was enough to finally make this card noteworthy? I highly doubt it.

Just as the Reddit group Wall Street Bets is swarming around stocks of companies that are really suffering, it appears the MTG equivalent has circled around many awful cards.

I can’t predict how the stock market antics will end; part of me wants to see the trend push further to see how Wall Street and Washington, D.C. handles this (seemingly) legal activity. But I do feel equipped to predict what will happen with these Magic cards.

The List

Before I dust off the crystal ball, first I want to make sure we distinguish between oddball cards with unique effects and cards that are far too complex or narrow to see legitimate play…ever. There’s a big difference.

If you want to speculate on a Reserved List card with a unique effect, I would never fault you. Especially if the copies you’re purchasing are near bulk. Hindsight is 20-20, and this card has already spiked, but I’ve mentioned Jabari's Influence in past articles. The card does something fairly unique in white: it steals creatures. It even does so at instant speed, no less! That’s one that is not interchangeable and merits a little speculation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jabari's Influence

But I am far less impressed with a card like Aku Djinn. The downside on this card is sizable and requires a bunch of extra work for you to negate it. What’s more, five mana for a 5/6 trample isn’t an impressive set of stats anymore.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aku Djinn

Bloodgift Demon, Shadowborn Demon, and even Abyssal Persecutor seem like far superior options nowadays. The only thing Aku Djinn has going for it is that it’s on the Reserved List.

Other cards I am rolling my eyes at include the aforementioned Winter's Chill, Pygmy Hippo, Weakstone and Mightstone, Prismatic Lace, Gustha's Scepter (at least this artifact costs 0…that counts for something), and Unfulfilled Desires. The list truly goes on and on, but these give you a feel for the kind of chaff I’m ignoring.

Every time we see a terrible card like this spike, we need to overcome the initial gut reaction of FOMO. I’ll admit a couple of these have made me frown—oh well, I’d rationalize, I guess I won’t be owning that card anytime soon. It’s important to acknowledge that we weren’t in the loop on a given buyout, but then quick remind ourselves that we will never need the given card to begin with. Especially not these horrendously bad cards from Magic’s distant past.

What and When to Buy

Let’s all hold hands and agree upfront that chasing any buyout of a bad Reserved List card does not require action. There’s no need to panic and purchase up overpriced copies of Aku Djinn just because the cheapest near mint copy on TCGplayer suddenly costs 300% more than it did the day before. This is the kind of reaction the speculators want you to have. The emotions must be overcome.

To offset this, I have two suggestions on how to react proactively and productively to these buyouts.

First, if you truly can’t shake the FOMO feeling, you could spend some energy researching the internet to see a) how thorough the buyout was, and b) if there are any lingering copies at their previous, near-bulk price.

Often times when a card initially pops on MTG Stocks, it’s because lightly played and near mint copies were bought out from TCGplayer. Moderately played and heavily played copies are usually left behind because buying them doesn’t impact the displayed price. If you truly won’t be able to sleep at night because you don’t own a Phyrexian Portal and it is bought out, you could settle for a played copy for your collection. Just be careful: doing this will feed right into the speculators’ plan. They expect other people to clean up HP/MP copies of the card in a panic, truly completing the buyout without having to spend money on the less collectible copies of the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Portal

If you’re unsure about buying the card, you could also research how many copies are still in stock on other sites. I’ve found many times TCGplayer will be cleaned out, but dozens of copies of a card will remain posted on eBay, Star City Games, Card Kingdom, ABUGames, etc. TCGplayer is usually hit first, but you can rest assured it doesn’t mean the card is suddenly unobtainable.

I remember recently when Vesuvan Doppelganger spiked and I started experiencing some regret for now picking up more copies “when I had the chance.”

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vesuvan Doppelganger

Then I noticed there were still plenty of copies for sale, especially if I was willing to accept heavily played condition. ABUGames literally has over 100 copies in stock; granted, they doubled their price since the initial spike, but it’s still reassuring to see.

Does it hurt to suddenly have to pay twice as much as before? Of course. But I don’t have to actually pull the trigger on buying any. Sometimes it’s just reassuring to see that the buyout wasn’t complete and that there will be no difficulty obtaining a copy in the future should I want one. That’s often enough to calm my anxiety.

The second productive response is to think of other cards in a similar category that hasn’t spiked yet, that you may want for your collection. Once again I have the gift of hindsight, but if I saw Vesuvan Doppelganger spike, I could have considered other Revised Reserved List rares and picked a couple up just in case. Or maybe I could have bought Morphling, another five mana blue creature from Magic’s past, and bought a few of those.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Morphling

Spending money on cards that haven’t spiked (yet) seems like a far better value for my dollar versus chasing something on the rise. You could always browse TCGplayer for rares from a given set, sort by “best selling”, and look for Reserved List cards towards the top. Chances are these are the ones being targeted or prime candidates to be targeted, and you could grab your copies before the FOMO sets in.

For example, here are search results for Visions:

Natural Order and Desertion aren’t on the Reserved List, but they sure are playable. Perhaps those are worth keeping an eye on. Retribution of the Meek is already pricy, but it has a unique effect that has merit. If you want to go for true bulk, you could browse listings for Suleiman's Legacy and Elkin Lair, which appear to be selling reasonably well and still near bulk.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elkin Lair

Everything you buy with this strategy may not suddenly spike to $10. But the practice will help you avoid the FOMO of purchasing overpriced cards that already spiked.

Oh, and this strategy may also help you uncover newly listed copies of a bad Reserved List card that already spiked. Diamond Kaleidoscope already saw some targeted buying. But that was a few days ago—maybe some stores will post their copies near the “old price” and you’ll be able to get that copy for your collection after all. (I checked: that $0.55 listing is for a damaged copy…I’ll leave it up to you whether or not you want to play the damaged lottery on this one.)

Wrapping It Up

The dominoes continue to fall as new Reserved List cards spike on MTG Stocks each and every. Yesterday (Sunday) the list included Jabari's Influence, Nova Pentacle, and Unfulfilled Desires. Tomorrow it can be a smattering of other cards most players have never heard of.

The key to avoiding FOMO here is to think more productively about how you want to react to these movements. Most of them are forced, and many target cards you’d not likely ever put in a deck. In these cases, it’s critical to remind yourself of the silliness of these buyouts and to remain focused on cards you do want to play. That will help a great deal.

If you feel the urge to buy something in response to recent activity, I’d suggest looking for played copies and browsing other sites outside of TCGplayer for copies at the “old price”. Or, better yet, search for cards with unique effects that haven’t spiked yet and pick up a copy or two just in case. This could be a great way of spending some store credit at sites like Star City Games, Channel Fireball, Card Kingdom, and ABUGames.

Whatever you don’t, don’t panic and chase after these unplayable cards. Just like Gamestop and AMC stocks, most of these cards will drop back down in price again given enough time. They’re all the rage today, and serve a psychological purpose, but their fundamentals remain the same as before: awful. (Note: this isn’t stock advice. Please consult your financial advisors on how to invest in stocks.)

The terrible Reserved List cards dropped after their buyouts in 2018; I have no reason to believe they won’t do so again in 2021. The cards may climb a little higher this time, and their retracement may take a little longer. But in no universe do I believe Winter's Chill will be an $8 (or higher) card forever. These will come back down, and not just due to the Spring thaw either.

January ’21 Brew Report, Pt. 1: Drink Challenge

Posted on January 27, 2021 by Jordan Boisvert

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It's a new year for Modern, and brewers haven't wasted a moment's time. Early January's biggest novel developments were among attacking decks, ranging from basement-low Swiftspear decks to grindier Uro piles while featuring a rare twist that's been murmured about since the format's creation!

Sligh Fox

Let's start from the bottom. Mono-Red Prowess and its offshoots are old news by now, but some newcomers to the Modern card pool and the metagame shifts they bring along seem to be shaking up the hit-'em-fast hierarchy quite a bit.

Mono-Red Pest, XORIAN (5-0)

Creatures

4 Wayward Guide-Beast

4 Goblin Guide

3 Legion Loyalist

4 Monastery Swiftspear

3 Signal Pest

4 Soul-Scar Mage

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike

Instants

3 Burst Lightning

3 Lava Dart

4 Lightning Bolt

4 Mutagenic Growth

Lands

2 Bloodstained Mire

7 Mountain

3 Sunbaked Canyon

4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Sunbaked Canyon

4 Light Up the Stage

3 Searing Blaze

1 Searing Blood

4 Smash to Smithereens

2 Soul-Guide Lantern

First up is Mono-Red Pest, a deck that dilutes the Prowess core with more creatures, among them Modern's latest Goblin Guide: Wayward Guide-Beast. But I do mean "dilute," and not "refute"—pure aggro aspirants would still be silly not to include reigning poke champ Monastery Swiftspear, even if it's unlikely to be a hasty Tarmogoyf from turn to turn. Between Swift, Guide, and Guide-Beast, the deck has boasts of hasty pressure just begging for a pump effect.

Here, that role is entrusted to Signal Pest, which grows all attacking creatures on the turn it swings. (Yes, with Mox Opal banned, I really feel like I need to explain what Signal Pest does.) Pest has its own drawbacks, of course; the artifact lacks haste itself, and is extremely frail. But at just a single mana investment for a pump effect that provides around 2-4 extra damage per turn and stacks, it does seem like a bargain, even if XORIAN found themselves running the less-than-optimal Legion Loyalist as an extra pump-able body. Then again, who knows? With Lingering Souls on the rise (don't touch that dial), perhaps token evasion is at last valuable enough to justify this pick by itself!

Gruul Sligh, BOLDY44 (5-0)

Creatures

2 Bloodbraid Elf

2 Bomat Courier

3 Eidolon of the Great Revel

4 Goblin Guide

3 Klothys, God of Destiny

4 Monastery Swiftspear

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike

3 Rift Bolt

3 Skewer the Critics

Instants

4 Atarka's Command

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Searing Blaze

2 Skullcrack

Lands

2 Bloodstained Mire

4 Copperline Gorge

1 Forest

4 Mountain

2 Stomping Ground

3 Sunbaked Canyon

4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Searing Blaze

1 Skullcrack

2 Blood Moon

1 Boil

2 Cindervines

1 Damping Sphere

4 Relic of Progenitus

1 Roiling Vortex

2 Smash to Smithereens

Gruul Sligh ditches the disruptive power of Blood Moon and extends into green, gaining a higher-impact creature suite finely tuned to take full advantage of Atarka's Command. Rather than focus on pump effects like the Pest deck, this strategy combines recurring damage sources such as Klothys and Eidolon with bursts of damage from the instant and sorcery suite.

The shift to Klothys and Bloodbraid Elf specifically signal readiness for a metagame raising its count of one-mana removal spells, as one might expect it to with glass-cannon, Infect-style decks such as Hammer Time performing well for the first time ever. Path, Bolt, and Push are great against that deck, but also happen to be great against 4/5 Swiftspears. Dipping into value creatures punishes opponents for leaning too hard on removal spells in their crusade against aggro.

Between the Pest deck, this new Gruul construction, and Burn decks now trying out 2 Roiling Vortex in the mainboard, it seems red-based aggro is again getting a significant this month!

Stuck in the Middle with You

Midrange has always been Modern's calling card as much as aggro, although it rarely takes the heat—indeed, when Splinter Twin was banned, you'd have thought the Library of Alexandria itself had been burned down. Here are some new spins on Mardu and, yes, Temur for the new year.

Mardu Stoneblade, BODINGLE (5-0)

Creatures

2 Rankle, Master of Pranks

4 Bonecrusher Giant

4 Seasoned Pyromancer

4 Stoneforge Mystic

Planeswalkers

1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

Artifacts

1 Batterskull

1 Embercleave

1 Sword of Feast and Famine

Sorceries

1 Dreadbore

3 Inquisition of Kozilek

2 Lingering Souls

1 Smiting Helix

4 Thoughtseize

Instants

2 Fatal Push

4 Lightning Bolt

2 Terminate

Lands

1 Arid Mesa

3 Blood Crypt

4 Bloodstained Mire

1 Castle Embereth

1 Godless Shrine

1 Graven Cairns

4 Marsh Flats

1 Mountain

1 Needleverge Pathway

1 Plains

1 Sacred Foundry

1 Savai Triome

1 Silent Clearing

2 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Angrath, the Flame-Chained

2 Cleansing Wildfire

1 Feed the Swarm

2 Kaya's Guile

2 Magus of the Moon

2 Pithing Needle

3 Remorseful Cleric

2 Wear // Tear

Jund never really goes away, even though we've heard about the tried-and-true Rock strategy recently converting to Rakdos. But there are proving to be even more viable ways to run Rock this month, including Mardu Stoneblade. Seasoned Pyromancer, Bonecrusher Giant, and Lingering Souls all provide bursts of value as well as prime bodies to hold equipment. But the flashiest tech here is Embercleave.

When it was spoiled, I remember the six-mana equipment being mostly assessed in terms of how easy it would be to reduce its cost with its own ability, and then more or less abandoned. But Stoneforge cheats it out by itself, not to mention tutors it up to begin with. And it turns out double strike and trample is pretty sick on a 4-power creature that already killed an opposing critter with its front half! Even better: attaching Embercleave to Rankle, Master of Pranks. Double strike lets the Faerie draw blood twice, which means stacking its effects for some real fun.

Nightpack Uro, YASHIMORO (3-1, Preliminary #12242654)

Creatures

2 Nightpack Ambusher

3 Snapcaster Mage

3 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

1 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

1 Tamiyo, Collector of Tales

3 Wrenn and Six

Sorceries

1 Hour of Promise

Instants

2 Aether Gust

3 Cryptic Command

4 Growth Spiral

3 Lightning Bolt

4 Mana Leak

3 Opt

Lands

1 Breeding Pool

1 Castle Vantress

2 Field of the Dead

1 Forest

2 Island

1 Ketria Triome

1 Lonely Sandbar

4 Misty Rainforest

1 Mountain

2 Mystic Sanctuary

1 Reflecting Pool

3 Scalding Tarn

1 Snow-Covered Forest

2 Snow-Covered Island

1 Steam Vents

1 Stomping Ground

1 Tectonic Edge

1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Aether Gust

3 Anger of the Gods

1 Ashiok, Dream Render

4 Cleansing Wildfire

4 Madcap Experiment

1 Platinum Emperion

1 Veil of Summer

It wouldn't be a brew report without some new way to wield the terrifying Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath. This week, that honor goes to Nightpack Uro, a typical Temur pile with an unconventional alternate win condition. Nightpack Ambusher is M20's answer to Huntmaster of the Fells, a four-mana Wolf with plenty of applications in reactive blue decks. Among them:

Deploying at instant speed so players can keep up mana for countermagic
Rewarding players for playing reactively by pumping out tokens, as would Bitterblossom or a planeswalker
Providing a sizeable body for both attacking and blocking
Flashing in during combat to eat a creature on defense

At its best, Ambusher goes where many Restoration Angels have gone before, "ambushing" an attacker and then providing value. 4/4 are pretty impressive stats to have on a flash creature, and getting the Wolf token every turn on top of that actually gives this creature what it might need to beat out the planeswalkers it competes with.

In metagames where 4/4 isn't likely to feast on much, it's surely worse, just as Huntmaster would be better if players needed to gun down armies of utility creatures that weren't doing much crashing in. In fact, I did notice a similar Temur Uro list running a pair of Huntmasters to fulfil such a modified role. But right now, them swinging Swiftspears sure is looking like a snack!

Like Liquid Gold

Way back when, before Modern was even announced, I was just dabbling in Magic and aimlessly picking up cards I thought looked cool. Among them was a brand-new playset of Liquimetal Coating. There are tons of efficient artifact removal cards, after all, and what a trip it would be to gun down enemy lands with them!

I did try the deck in Modern, as others have, and to decidedly middling results. The card itself did leave a small imprint when Karn, the Great Creator was released and Mycosynth Lattice banned, as Karn's +1 combo'd with Coating to destroy one land per turn. But now, suddenly, Liquimetal Ponza the deck is putting up finishes. And it owes this newfound success to Thieving Skydiver.

Temur Liquimetal, 603LEB (5-0)

Creatures

4 Thieving Skydiver

4 Arbor Elf

1 Birds of Paradise

4 Bloodbraid Elf

4 Seasoned Pyromancer

2 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath

Planeswalkers

4 Karn, the Great Creator

1 Wrenn and Six

Artifacts

3 Liquimetal Coating

Enchantments

4 Blood Moon

4 Utopia Sprawl

Instants

3 Abrade

2 Ancient Grudge

Lands

2 Breeding Pool

5 Forest

4 Misty Rainforest

1 Mountain

2 Stomping Ground

2 Windswept Heath

4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Liquimetal Coating

2 Boil

1 Engineered Explosives

1 Ensnaring Bridge

1 Grafdigger's Cage

2 Lightning Bolt

1 Pithing Needle

1 Relic of Progenitus

1 Tormod's Crypt

2 Veil of Summer

1 Walking Ballista

1 Wurmcoil Engine

Temur Liquimetal is a turn-two Moon deck with a twist: it turns your permanents into artifacts and then blows them up. Among said permanents are your basic lands, which Thieving Skydiver will happily swipe for a single mana. Destroying a land is nice, but ramping at the same time can quickly spiral out of control, especially with high-impact mana sinks in the picture. With Liquimetal present, this creature can steal any permanent. And even without the Coating, Skydiver can come down and take Colossus Hammer all for itself, equipping it for free to boot.

As for mana sinks, Uro's one, sure, but there's also Karn, the Great Creator, which adds redundancy to Liquimetal Coating... and even tutors it, giving this deck a whopping seven pseudo-copies! This deck isn't even necessarily a fluke, as beyond league finishes, it placed in a Preliminary.

Now, I did say Liquimetal Ponza owed its success to Skydiver. But I wouldn't fault the skeptical for taking one look and attributing its high finishes to the presence of Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath. That's why we've got one more deck to check out:

Grixis Liquimetal, DAIBLOXSC (5-0)

Creatures

4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

3 Thieving Skydiver

2 Lurrus of the Dream-Den

Planeswalkers

4 Karn, the Great Creator

Sorceries

3 Inquisition of Kozilek

2 Thoughtseize

Instants

4 Abrade

1 Cling to Dust

3 Fatal Push

4 Kolaghan's Command

4 Thought Scour

Artifacts

3 Liquimetal Coating

4 Mishra's Bauble

Lands

1 Blood Crypt

2 Bloodstained Mire

2 Darkslick Shores

4 Polluted Delta

2 Scalding Tarn

2 Snow-Covered Island

1 Snow-Covered Mountain

2 Snow-Covered Swamp

1 Steam Vents

2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Liquimetal Coating

1 Thoughtseize

2 Aether Gust

2 Ashiok, Dream Render

1 Batterskull

2 Collective Brutality

1 Damping Sphere

1 Ensnaring Bridge

1 Narset, Parter of Veils

1 Pithing Needle

1 Soul-Guide Lantern

1 Tormod's Crypt

Look, Ma! No Uro! And no Ancient Grudge, either. Grixis Liquimetal instead maxes out both the flexible Abrade and the now-gamebreaking Kolaghan's Command, also running Lurrus of the Dream-Den to recur lost Liquimetals or whatever else, including Skydivers. Then Jace, Vryn's Prodigy sifts through the deck to de-clunk triple-Command hands, while targeted discard buys time for the engines to come online.

Drink Up

It would seem Modern's staying hydrated. Are you? Keep healthy readers, and we'll see you soon for the January wrap-up... and some final thoughts on the new expansion!

Insider: Other Side of the Coin

Posted on January 27, 2021January 16, 2022 by David Schumann

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Way back in 2016, I wrote a piece called Strike While the Iron is Hot. At the time, I was hearing from a lot of people that their collection's value had gone up and then prices started to dip back down and people wanted to sell what they had to lock in profits. The Warren Buffet quote I used at the time was “We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy, and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”

At the time, many MTG financiers were on the fearful side. Looking at all the Reserved List buyouts happening now, I am now firmly in the opposite camp. I am a seller rather than a buyer right now. It seems that those buying out RL cards aren't even that selective in their choices. Cards that see no play in any format are doubling or tripling in price, simply because they are on the Reserved List and people are suffering from Fear of Missing Out (FOMO).

I have put up more of my personal collection in the past 2 months than I had in the previous 2 years. I should be honest though, as my willingness to part with cards I never thought I'd part with is only partly driven by the potential to make massive profits on my purchases, but mostly because as I have gotten older. My family has grown and I have less time to devote to Magic as a whole.

There was a time in my life when I was at a store playing some format of Magic for 6 out of 7 days of the week, now I am lucky to make it once every other week (pandemic withstanding). I can't justify holding onto thousands of dollars of cards that just sit in my safe doing nothing when I could put that money into other more pressing concerns. Many of my friends are in the same boat; our "no proxies allowed" mentality when it came to Commander has become far more lax, and we currently allow proxies if you own any copies of the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

Perhaps we are passing the torch to the next generation of Magic players, younger people who can devote the amount of time we used to; or perhaps we simply understand that given the state of the world having access to the liquidity of cash far outweighs the pride of playing a real Underground Sea.

So far, most of the Reserved List cards whose prices have jumped significantly were not bulk to begin with, and are all cards that are likely to be seen in competitive Commander or cEDH decks. That isn't to say that many don't see play in casual Commander decks, just simply that the cards jumping in price tend to be far more on the competitive side. It's also very important to note that the US government recently gave most of the adult population $600 in stimulus, with many people spending it on investments. If you are a gainfully employed Magic player with disposable income, it makes sense to splurge on some of the higher-end cards you've been missing in your decks, especially when the money was "free." With all this being said, there are some cards I'm surprised have not jumped yet, so my suggestion is if you want a personal copy you'd best buy them now.

*Please don't try to corner the market on any of these, as that's not what we promote here at Quiet Speculation.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Survival of the Fittest

The buy-in for this card is already very high sitting at around $200, but the power level on this card is just absurd. It was one of the key pieces in the old RecSur deck of old type 2, which was a deck that utilized Survival of the Fittest and Recurring Nightmare to create powerful loops of creatures. With Recurring Nightmare banned in Commander and almost certainly never coming off that list, I wouldn't waste capital buying up copies.

Survival however is not only legal in Commander, it tends to find a home in many of the powerful green/x decks in the format. We all know how in-demand tutoring is in the format, so repeatable tutoring that happens to fill your graveyard is very easy to abuse. Survival is also part of the "Blood Pod" cEDH deck, which is one of the most powerful decks on the cEDH tier list. The one thing holding this card back is that WotC has printed a fair number of cards that while not as powerful serve as cheaper options for similar effects; namely Fauna Shaman and Birthing Pod.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cadaverous Bloom

Another powerful card that was the backbone of the most powerful deck in standard at the time, ProsBloom. Cadaverous Bloom has already doubled up in 2020, but it went from $3 to $6. That being said, it is nowhere near as ubiquitous as Survival of the Fittest, but it is still very powerful. It is a powerful mana engine that doesn't have any close non-Reserved List options. It is limited to decks that run green and black so it isn't as easy to fit into decks, but it is extremely powerful and it is the type of card that could easily skyrocket with the right commander being printed. This is a card that I've picked up a fair number of copies over the years and just stashed away.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lifeline

This is one of my pet cards, but also one I'm amazed hasn't been hit with the buyouts yet. Currently, it is sitting around $15-$22 range depending on condition and it is an artifact that is great in any deck that plays creatures that replace themselves. Its current price has been relatively stable since 2018 which tells me that there is plenty of demand for the card at its current price.

Conclusion

In all honesty, it was actually difficult to find even three cards that are on the reserved list, see some Commander play, and haven't already jumped significantly in the past year. I have put all 3 of the cards in various Commander decks I have built through the years and all three earned their right to be in each respective deck. Are there any that you think I missed? Please feel free to comment below.

Practical Experience: MTGO All-Access Week

Posted on January 26, 2021 by David Ernenwein

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As January comes to a close, it's time to start looking forward to the new Modern. Kaldheim hits shelves next Friday, and while its impact on Modern will be muted, there will be new brews and deck adjustments which will cause some turbulence. The only question is whether there will be a major change, either from a major deck retool or something new emerging. I'm skeptical of the latter, but Modern's cardpool is far too deep to be certain. At least there's no Oko or Uro this time!

Thus we're in that weird period between the death of the old normal and the birth of the new. Next week's update will close the book on that metagame, but until then, we might as well explore the current one. Fortunately, Wizards gave me the perfect opportunity to do exactly that.

Last week was Super Qualifier week on MTGO. These are PTQ level tournaments that award two invites to... whatever they call the Arena version of... Players Tours? (Is that what they're called now? I've lost track.) Anyway, normally this would only mean that my data is going to get a huge boost from a very competitive event. However, for unknown reasons, this round included All-Access passes. Normally associated with Eternal Weekend, the passes are exactly what they sound like, granting access to every non-promo card on MTGO. Meaning you can play whatever deck you actually want for the duration of the pass. Naturally, I scooped one up and went on an MTGO bender. And today I'm sharing what I learned.

Getting a League Up

My All-Access play was centered on Leagues, as my schedule doesn't sync with the rather odd scheduling of preliminaries and challenges. Early morning or late night I understand; it's a global game, and all world citizens should get a chance. Starting in the middle of the afternoon, though? That's just weird! With Leagues, I can squeeze in matches throughout my work day, which is perfect for my odd downtimes. It also gave me the flexibility to explore multiple decks and formats. Understandably, I played more competitive Magic the past week than over the entirety of the pandemic. It's been a long 11 months and 11 days since my last big tournament (local Modern $1K), and I really needed to shake off the rust. And Leagues are great for that.

Naturally, All-Access meant that I also played a wide variety of decks. That's just getting your money's worth. I didn't test every deck, obviously, and in Modern particularly I was looking to test towards the Friday Super Qualifier, the only one I could attend. And I did learn a lot about the decks I tried. However, testing also left me with a lot more questions about the MTGO metagame than before. Here's a rundown on the decks I tested, in order of testing.

Hammer Time

Hammer Time is basically Infect: they have the exact same gameplan. Sometimes, it's literally Infect thanks to Inkmoth Nexus. Unlike Infect, it's actually having metagame impact right now. Also unlike Infect, I'm skeptical that it will maintain much of a presence in Modern. I was underwhelmed by Hammer Time and moved on pretty quickly.

On the one hand, I get why it's getting play. The deck has insane explosive potential. I got my only turn 2 win in competitive Magic ever by dropping Ornithopter and Sigarda's Aid turn one, then two Colossus Hammers against Tron. There's also a very convoluted way to win via Inkmoth on that turn, but it's so unlikely I discount it. There are a lot of ways for Hammer to win turn 3, and in a format where the best deck wants to spend the first few turns establishing its mana, that ridiculous speed is a huge advantage.

However, the longer the deck takes to kill, the worse it gets. Hammer Time's cards are all very weak on their own. Colossus Hammer is unequipable without either Aid or Puresteel Paladin, and Hammer is the main kill condition. If the cheating equip-cost plan fails to materialize, there's nothing left. The threat of a win materializing from nowhere is very powerful, but if the opponent calls that bluff, Hammer Time is sunk. Worse, any non-toughness based removal kills everything. It's more all-in than Infect ever was, because Infect has more actual threats and ways to protect that threat. As a result, Infect can hang in any metagame while I don't think Hammer Time can. Infect has proven ability to fight through removal, but I haven't seen that from Hammer Time.

I genuinely think that Hammer is being propped up by 4-Color Omnath decks being Tier 1 and Lurrus of the Dream-Den as a companion. The first half is crucial because black removal is on the low ebb while red is riding high. As of writing, MTGTop8 says 39% of decks play Lightning Bolt and only 17.4% Fatal Push. Aid lets Hammer play around Bolt, but not Push, and Omnath is keeping black midrange down. It's also a very slow deck, so Hammer has the chance to get those fast wins.

The second is because if anything goes wrong, Lurrus is the only saving grace. And it is Lurrus specifically, not Lurrus plus Mishra's Bauble. It's the only option to push through removal since there are so few real cards in Hammer Time. Smart opponents, given the option, will ignore every card but Hammer and Paladin. Lurrus is a plausible backup plan and is keeping Hammer Time viable. If anything happens to Lurrus or the metagame changes, I don't think Hammer Time can survive.

Death and Taxes

I know Death and Taxes well and felt that it was still a strong deck in the metagame despite losing ground. My testing confirmed that against the non-combo decks it was still a very strong choice. Most of the combo decks can push through Thalia, Guardian of Thraben pretty easily. Archon of Emeria is very strong, but Belcher can beat that too. DnT is fully capable of beating combo decks (that's exactly what my Legacy version was doing all week), but to be good against the overall Modern metagame, I can't play all the anti-combo cards. They take too many sideboard slots and are too narrow in Modern's context. I was debating just pushing forward and hope to dodge combo after a few 4-1 results.

However, I also figured out why DnT had dropped off so much despite being a strong deck. DnT can grind through anything in the current meta (combo aside), but it's not easy. You have to maximize every mana, sequence properly, and know what to play around. This is especially true against Omnath, and while I think DnT is actually favored, it's not favored by much and can still lose easily. Which is how it goes with Legacy DnT, but right now Modern has so many decks with complete free-roll plays that I don't blame anyone trying for easier decks. With my eye back in on DnT, I took the opportunity to try something I actually wanted to play.

UW Spirits

I haven't played Spirits in over a year. Not because I thought it was bad, but because I don't have ~80% of the cards online. And like I've said many times, I don't want to put money into digital cards. However, I've theorized that it would be a very strong deck in the Uro-centric metagame before. From experience, I know that Spirits is very strong against slow decks. Spell Queller is superb against big spells, and Rattlechains lets you play around everything. Remorseful Cleric even gives Spirits maindeckable graveyard hate. With cost no longer being an issue, of course I was going to play Spirits. I didn't know how to build Spirits for the current metagame, so I just copied MTGO Trophy grinder and Spirits specialist DoctorQueller's list. I opted for Auriok Champion over the Burrenton Forge-Tender but made no other changes all week.

And I was rewarded with the only 5-0 of the week. Hooray me. I hold that Spirits is very well-positioned, and anyone looking for disruptive creatures would be amiss not to give it a try. However, I was wrong about why Spirits was good. Queller is too slow in a lot of matchups these days. Rather, the best card in the current metagame is Shacklegeist. Most of the top decks win with a single threat, often heavily boosted. Shacklegeist efficiently neutralizes those threats, and can be used offensively too. I hit a lot of Hammer Time and Scourge Shadow prior to the Super Qualifier and didn't drop a match thanks to Shacklegeist.

Bant Stoneblade

I have a soft spot for Bant decks. I love them and have all the cards. However, I never do well with them. They just don't work when I try them out. So when I saw that Bant Stoneblade was putting up numbers in early January, I was surprised. And when given the chance, I had to try it out. And it didn't go well. Worst results of any tested deck. It might have been my inexperience, or my matchups, but I struggled to win with Bant Stoneblade. The non-Uro threats were too underpowered relative to the meta, and there weren't enough hard answers for the control plan. At the same time, it felt like Uro wasn't supported enough, as though the deck was trying to be too many things. I was significantly disappointed.

Lessons of the Qualifier

Given that my best results was with Spirits, it was natural that I'd run it in the Super Qualifier. I've been dying for some real competitive Modern but again, won't shell out for cards online, so that wasn't an option until the All-Access passes. Humans had not been winning enough for me to try before then. And the tournament was massive: 431 players signed up for 10 rounds. Plus Top 8. For an event starting at 4 PM Mountain. That was up from the previoius Modern Super Qualifier's 375. This has actually led me to rethink how I allocate points for the metagame breakdown, but more on that next week.

The Tournament

My tournament did not go well, and I dropped at 3-3. I knew that 7-3 could make prizes, but was out of Top 16 contention, which was not a deal-breaker. However, I also knew that my tiebreakers had to be terrible, because only the opponent from last round was still playing; assuming tiebreakers work on MTGO as they do in paper, I had to be at the very bottom of the 3-3's. This meant I would most likely be playing off-meta decks I wasn't prepared for, and since that's what I'd lost to, I didn't want to prolong my suffering.

My rust definitely showed and I made a fair number of mistakes, though the play mistakes weren't enough to actually cost me games. What cost me were incorrect keeps in my last two losses. They were okay hands, but didn't work given what my opponent was doing in sideboard games, and I feel that I should have known that. However, again I am too rusty to make a definitive call there. However, despite doing poorly, I was so elated to be playing competitive Modern again that I really didn't care.

First round was a loss to 8-Crab Mill. In game 1, my opponent has three crabs on turn three, and that's not really raceable. Game 2 I'm 1 damage short, and I feel like I missed it somewhere. Alternatively, one more counterspell wins the game. Also, I was very annoyed because I'd been playing a single Gaea's Blessing in DnT for this very deck, but hadn't seen Mill in the Leagues and didn't bother with Spirits. Huge tilt there.

I then got three quick wins against Amulet Titan, the UW Spirits mirror, and Izzet Prowess thanks to Shacklegeist buying lots of turns in the races. The second loss was against Fires of Invention Taking Turns, which won thanks to drawing several Fires to get around my answers games 2 and 3. Then I lost to Grishoalbrand when game 1 saw two combo attempts stopped before Lightning Ax on Queller won the game. Game 2, an accelerated Through the Breach into Emrakul, the Aeons Torn wrapped things up. Spirits is very strong against the metagame decks, but struggles against anything off meta.

Updating Spirits

After the qualifier, I would not run back the same list I played. There were problems with casting my spells and the sideboard needs adjustment.

UW Spirits, Test Deck

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer

3 Spectral Sailor

4 Rattlechains

4 Shacklegeist

4 Supreme Phantom

3 Selfless Spirit

4 Skyclave Apparation

4 Spell Queller

4 Drogskol Captain

2 Glasspool Mimic

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Flooded Strand

4 Seachrome Coast

3 Cavern of Souls

2 Hallowed Fountain

2 Plains

2 Island

1 Moorland Haunt

Sideboard

3 Path to Exile

2 Pithing Needle

3 Auriok Champion

2 Rest in Peace

1 Damping Sphere

1 Remorseful Cleric

1 Selfless Spirit

2 Force of Negation

Spirits always felt like it wanted 20.5 lands, not 20 or 21. Glasspool Mimic makes that a reality. I cut a Selfless Spirit and a Moorland Haunt to fit in two Mimics. Selfless was relevant the least, and the second Haunt is fairly superfluous. It also choked me on colored mana several times and nearly cost me games. I put the Selfless into the sideboard in place of an unneeded Cleric. Damping Sphere isn't so effective against the combo decks that actually see play right now, and big mana is also down, while Pithing Needle was a clean win against Belcher in Leagues will also being effective against a huge number of decks. I'd be much happier running this version of Spirits.

And So It Ends

It was nice getting the freedom to really explore the metagame we currently have right before it changes with Kaldheim incoming. Again, I think the shift will be small, but there's no way to know this earyl. We'll all see in a few weeks.

Stop and Sell Something Already

Posted on January 25, 2021January 24, 2021 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Another week has passed by, and another round of Reserved List buyouts occurred.

When the 17^th largest weekly increase is still a rise of 283.44%, you know there is rampant speculation going on. Many of the playable cards had already risen to new heights; now, some purely collectible, yet largely unpayable cards are rising in turn.

For example, have you read Ice Cauldron, the top Reserved List mover this week? I mean, look at the thing! It’s basically War and Peace squeezed onto a card. No one is buying this thing to play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ice Cauldron

You may counter that TCGplayer’s market price is inflated and manipulatable. These numbers don’t accurately reflect what you could sell these cards at. That would be a fair pushback. But look at some of the market price increases from last week!

There it is again, Ice Cauldron at the top. Of course $4.39 (market price) is a far cry away from $14.50 (TCG mid price). But the trend is the same: dozens of Reserved List cards are climbing in price and selling at higher prices than before.

That’s where I come in. This week I’m going to remind you to follow the old mantra, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” In my nine years of writing about MTG finance, I’ve never seen a market as greedy as this one.

It’s time to act.

The Case to Sell

It’s clear speculators are scooping any and all Reserved List cards they can get their hand on. Of this I have no doubt. So with the likely decline in the U.S. Dollar and a period of rampant buying, why would I advocate selling?

First off, I want to clarify that I’m not advocating you sell out of Magic completely here. I’m still maintaining the bulk of my collection with the end goal of paying for my kids’ college costs. While I’m much closer to that goal now than I was three months ago, I don’t think we’ve seen peak prices in the long term.

But in the short term, it’s hard to argue that prices aren’t stratospheric. Even beyond silly buyouts on cards like Ice Cauldron and Diamond Kaleidoscope, the playable cards are also at or near all-time highs.

Over the weekend, Revised Underground Sea hit a peak buy price of $650 on Card Kingdom’s site. According to Trader Tools, this surpassed the previous high that happened in 2018.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

When Dual Lands peaked in 2018, there was a rapid cool-down period after. On July 19^th, the best buy price for Underground Sea was $575. In mid-December, just five months later, the best buy priced dropped 25%, to $432.87. Then the card bottomed out throughout 2019 and into 2020 before finally climbing last summer.

Gaea's Cradle followed a similar trend during that time period. The buy price peaked at $419.93 on June 2^nd, 2018 and then dropped in half to around $200 by the New Year. Granted the card’s price remained higher than it was before the 2018 buyouts, but nowhere near its peak.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

Well, here we are again making a new peak with a buy price of $650. It wouldn’t surprise me if this card’s top buy price was $400 six to twelve months from now. Especially if the world opens up and large Magic events resume.

Finally, it’s worth noting that many of the spiking cards are straight unplayable. If you have random Ice Cauldrons lying around from collection buying, you were just given a gift. That gift is the ability to liquidate these cards for real money rather than having them take up space in your boxes. If you were savvy enough to speculate on some of these garbage Reserved List cards before the spike, why not cash out and put those funds into cards you can really use?

Don’t Sell Indiscriminately!

Assuming I’ve convinced you to take advantage of this seller’s market, you may ask what cards make the most sense to liquidate and which to hold onto.

For starters, I wouldn’t sell any Reserved List or Old School cards you’re actively using in decks. Unless you’re planning to dismantle the decks, you’re better off holding these cards and continuing to enjoy them. You may see their value peak and then retreat some, but the long-term trajectory for these cards will still be upwards and to the right. In other words, I’d remain “long” on Old School and Reserved List cards if your time horizon is at least 3-5 years.

Instead, I’d consider trimming your position on some of the cards you’re not actively using that have risen dramatically these past couple months. I can’t rattle off every card, but it should be pretty apparent which cards fit the bill. Cards you’d never play like Griffin Canyon have no business being $20. These will retrace hard when the rampant buying settles down. Non-Reserved List cards that no one plays are especially juicy to sell to buylists now, such as Whim of Volrath.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Whim of Volrath

Marginally playable cards that recently soared are also worth bailing on. A card like Time Spiral, for example, is very niche and has limited demand. Now it is nearing $300 and buylisting for $130 to Card Kingdom.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Time Spiral

If players (read: not speculators) weren’t willing to pay up for these before, they certainly won’t be interested now. Michael Caffrey of Tales of Adventure put it eloquently on Twitter the other day:

I believe Michael is spot on in his observation. If you had trouble selling some of these slow-movers before, you’ve been given a gift: the gift of liquidity (and some extra cash). You won’t be able to sell Time Spiral to a player at the “new price”, but you may be able to sell them to a speculator experiencing FOMO. Cards in this category definitely warrant selling.

Most generically, I’d recommend selling any overheated cards if you’re looking to buy Reserved List cards that haven’t spiked (as much) yet. What I mean to say here is, bringing new cash into Magic could leave you with a sour taste if you end up overpaying for something only to watch its value drop over the next six months. Instead, trading is the way to acquire new cards in this environment. This way when you are punished by having to offer more value in trade to acquire cards, it’s balanced out by the fact that you’re getting more for your cards.

Since trading is severely reduced in COVID times, this manifests itself either in trading cards into stores or selling cards to immediately buy others. It’s not exactly the same, but it’s a close enough approximation that the actions are justifiable in this environment.

Here’s an example: I wanted a Diamond Valley for an Old School deck recently. With the help of someone sitting on Card Kingdom store credit, I managed to acquire a heavily played copy for $365.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Diamond Valley

This was somewhat painful because just a few months ago, mint copies sold for that price. However, I justified the purchase for two reasons. First, Diamond Valley hasn’t reached its all-time high yet—in September 2018 this card buylisted for $450 and today its top buy price is $418. Therefore, I think it can climb even higher. Second, I sold other cards to fund this purchase. It’s no coincidence that the cards I sold (e.g. an HP Old Man of the Sea and an LP Collectors’ Edition Forcefield) had also risen in price lately.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Old Man of the Sea

What’s more, the cards I sold netted me a healthy profit; so while on paper I paid $365 for the Diamond Valley, I justified the purchase by considering the cards I sold cost me a fair amount less. Of course, this is sketchy logic as I could have taken that $365 and used it however I wanted. But the idea is, if you’re looking to acquire something and the steep price tag is bothersome, it’s wise to sell other stuff to help fund that purchase and reduce the pain of having to pay a “new price”.

Wrapping It Up

It’s 2018 all over again. Only this time, there are no large events to encourage players to sell their cards to vendors, the U.S. Dollar is dropping, and the government continues to pump out money to those in need (and some who don’t need as much). These factors are likely to re-create the 2018 buyouts and then some.

However, I don’t think this is a permanent fixture in MTG finance. Card prices will once again settle down, just like they did two years ago. Because of this, I’m advocating that everyone sell something they’re not using. Right here, right now. Take advantage of the market’s temporary dynamic and take some money off the table.

But before you rush out to do so, make sure you’re selling wisely. Yes, some prices will be lower six months from now than they are now. But many cards will find a “new floor” and never be as cheap as they were pre-2021. So I’m advocating that you trim the fat—sell cards you’re not using that have recently spiked. Don’t sell everything unless you absolutely have to.

While I do predict prices will cool off later in 2021, I also predict that we’ll have another cycle of buyouts again at some point in the future (2-5 years out). So if you don’t need the money and you aren’t looking to fund other purchases, don’t feel obligated to sell aggressively. I’m merely suggesting you consider taking advantage of this seller’s market and make a little extra bank for yourself. If you’ve been holding some of these Reserved List cards and are now watching your collection’s value balloon, you deserve to recognize some gains.

I’m largely attached to my collection as it currently sits, yet I’m taking advantage to sell a little myself. It’s only the logical thing to do in this market environment: be fearful as others are clearly greedy.

Speculating on Aegar, the Freezing Flame

Posted on January 22, 2021January 21, 2021 by David Schumann

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Warning: this article features spoilers for the upcoming Kaldheim set.

Kaldheim shifts away from previous iterations of Giants by shifting them from a Boros creature type to an Izzet creature type. There are both good sides and bad sides to this shift. Blue is a significantly stronger color in Commander than white so this change allows players to include stronger overall cards. The downside is that if you want to use Aegar, The Freezing Flame as your commander, you lose out on all the white or Boros giants from Magic's past. That being said, there is still a lot of room to build around this commander and I'm excited to dig into it.

There are a few key requirements for a good Aegar, the Freezing Flame deck.

Your opponents must have creatures or planeswalkers to make the deck work.
You need to be able to keep Aegar, the Freezing Flame on the battlefield consistently.
You need to be able to do a lot of damage with either spells, Giants, or Wizards.

Point #3

We will work backward on our list and start with point 3 as it's the one with the most options. There are a lot of red mass damage spells in Magic's history, though few typically find a home in Commander decks. The reason is that most aren't really mana efficient with regards to how much damage they do and often in order to kill large creatures you have to pump a lot of damage into them to do so. However, there are two that are strong enough that they do find a home in many commander decks and would be auto includes in any Aegar deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Star of Extinction

Star of Extinction was a bulk mythic when it originally came out. It had a lot of flavor behind it, but seemed like overkill. This coincidentally is a term one of our QS Insiders used to describe Aegar, the Freezing Flame and Flame Spill's "excess damage" statement, and I hope that this term sticks.

Looking at the price graph, we can see there was a slight uptick in price after Aegar, the Freezing Flame was spoiled, as 20 damage will almost always be "excess" and tacking on a draw 6+ to Star of Extinction makes it extremely good in Commander. This card has only 2 printings, Ixalan and in the Mystery Boosters. I wouldn't consider the Mystery Boosters a truly mass reprint though given just how large the set was as a whole, so there is a lot of upside potential for this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blasphemous Act

Another card that started out its life as basically a bulk rare, Blasphemous Act is the number 2 most played red card on EDHRec. It's a mass board wipe that often costs 1 red mana. In a similar vein to the previously mentioned Star of Extinction, it's 13 damage is typically enough to kill everything and more often kill it by a lot. This was a $5+ card up until it was spoiled in Commander Legends and it has since dropped considerably.

Blasphemous Act has been reprinted repeatedly, in fact, two of its reprints occurred in 2020 as it is in Double Masters and Commander Legends. Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of potential for any of the regular printings as both those sets are expected to have additional print runs. However, the extended art option from Commander Legends is around $3 as of me writing this and there aren't likely to be more of those being printed anytime soon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flame Wave

Finally, we have a potential speculation target that hasn't been printed in the past 15 years. There are currently two printings of this card, Stronghold and 9th Edition both at uncommon. While there is some upside potential for older uncommons, the price ceiling is likely somewhat limited on this one as it only does 4 damage, so it's really only a mass removal spell against a board of small creatures controlled by one player. The benefits are that it doesn't hit your creatures so it won't kill Aegar, the Freezing Flame like the other two spells mentioned already. For this as a spec, I like the foil 9th Edition versions which I'm seeing in the sub $2 range, with very little supply.

Point #2

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hammer of Nazahn

Unfortunately, the buy-in on most of our options for point #2 is high as there aren't a lot of ways to give your creature indestructibility or protection from red in the Izzet color pie, so we typically have to rely on artifacts. The good news is that this card is good with a lot of commanders so that universality means that its value will likely remain. It is important to remember that we are expecting more Double Masters boxes to enter the supply once WotC's printers get caught up, so the price may drop a bit once that happens.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sword of War and Peace

Arguably one of the weakest of the Sword cycle, this once standard all-star has simply not proven itself as a staple in the Commander format. That being said, it's life gain ability plays very well with Aegar, the Freezing Flame's draw ability and protection from white helps with a lot of targeted removal.

Point #1

There was an error retrieving a chart for Forbidden Orchard

I'll be honest I was blown away at this card's current price. Admittedly, it hasn't really had a mass reprint and it seems to find a home in a fair number of Commander decks. The buy-in here is pretty high and the risk of a reprint seems relatively high as well, however, it's unlikely to be reprinted in Standard as most spirit tokens are now white, so it would seem out of place. I do think there is some potential upside as a spec for Aegar, the Freezing Flame, but this isn't one I'd go deep in.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Acorn Catapult

Acorn Catapult is another one whose price really surprised me. The ability is relatively weak to give your opponent a creature; however, the squirrel creature type is one with a devout following and its printings are limited to the original Commander product and The List. This is also one of those cards that can be used politically to gain favor at the table against specific players.

Conclusion

I hope everyone is excited about Kaldheim as I am. I really like the flavor of this set and there are a lot of new cards I can't wait to add to my Commander decks. I am also very excited to build my own Aegar, the Freezing Flame deck, using the cards I mentioned in this article as well as plenty of other mass damage spells like my beloved Inferno, which is the very first rare I ever opened way back in 1997.

Kaldheim: Spoilers and More!

Posted on January 20, 2021January 21, 2021 by Joseph Davidson

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Kaldheim, Magic's 86th expansion, will be released on February 5, 2021. Set on a new, Norse mythology-inspired plane of the same name, Kaldheim contains 285 cards and will continue to include randomly inserted premium versions of all the cards. Players will be able to purchase regular Draft Boosters, Theme Boosters, Set Boosters, Collector Boosters, a Kaldheim Bundle, and two Commander decks.

Marketing-wise, Wizards is leaning into the "metal" stylings and iconographies often associated with fans of Norse mythology. Check out the collector booster and awesome WPN poster sporting some of their new metal stylings that were revealed in an article titled, "Welcome to the Face-Melting World of Kaldheim" posted on the mothership on December 14th.

Spoilers are slated to start Tuesday, December 15th, and are slated to follow this schedule. Check back with us frequently for the latest spoilers and our MTG Finance flavored commentary! We’ll be covering our favorite highlights from spoiler season – if you want to see the entirety of everything that has been spoiled you can check out Wizards’ updated card gallery here.

January 20th

Finally, we have reached the day of the full set reveal! There wasn't much more to see as far as rares go for the main Kaldheim set, but we do get to see a whole slew of new Commander cards! You can see the whole set over at Wizards' card gallery. What do you think about the set? Are you as excited as I am? What cards did I leave out of coverage that you think are going to be important? Let's take a look at two impactful blue cards from today's spoilers, and I'll leave the commander rares below them for you to look at and evaluate!

Bind the Monster is rad and I think it will definitely see lots of play in Pauper. It's not quite Swords to Plowshares, but this is excellent removal in its own right, and besides Pauper I think this will see play in Standard and Historic as well. Binding a Questing Beast will hurt, but it will only hurt you once as opposed to getting hit by it repeatedly. Icebreaker Kraken has the potential to be a fantastic top end for the snow control deck (plus, the art is fantastic.) As a primarily aggro player, I'm not looking forward to having to race against the clock that this thing will represent.

Below, you'll find a bunch of the spoiled rares from the upcoming Commander decks! I'm going to leave them without commentary because I am a very inexperienced Commander player and do not trust myself to evaluate them fairly. However, I can say that this latest batch of Commander action looks like a ton of fun and I'm looking forward to playing the precons against each other!

January 19th

Today we got some runes, some Commander cards, and some more cool rares and mythics!

With Resplendent Marshal we get our 3/3 flyer for three mana, but with a powerful upside. I think this warrior will see a lot of play in aggressive white decks, and I'm looking forward to testing it out myself. Orvar, the All-Form is a super interesting blue mythic. I'm not sure exactly where this changeling will fit, but I do know that being able to make copies of your permanents is a powerful ability - and I'm excited to see where this shapeshifter gets played!

Runeforge Champion was, unfortunately, one of the early leaks from this season, but it's been officially spoiled now! This dwarf warrior makes the runes spoiled today a whole lot better for constructed, and I wouldn't be surprised if an enterprising brewer out there comes up with a sweet rune-based list centered around this champion. King Narfi's Betrayal seems like a sweet addition to the UB control lists out there, and I imagine it fits in with any of the builds out there running Ashiok, Nightmare Muse.

We got a peek at some of the upcoming Commander cards today! Wolverine Riders is a fun addition to casual elf decks, guaranteeing you at least one life a turn as long as it stays on the table (and realistically plenty more in this style of deck), and Inspired Sphinx seems like a decent blue creature for many of the fan-favorite casual blue Commander decks out there.

The runes are here! Each of these runes has an on-color effect and allows you to enchant a permanent, though you will want to be enchanting either a creature or an equipment to get the full value out of them. These are all going to be limited all stars, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of them played in constructed as well. I know I want to enchant an Embercleave with Rune of Mortality at some point!

January 17th and 18th

Just a few more days before we get the whole set reveal! Let's take a look at some of the cool cards we got over the weekend.

Doomskar has the potential to be a better Wrath of God and Wrath of God seems like it would be darn good in standard right now. You have to take turn three off to really profit off of this board wipe, but I think the decks that run this are totally fine with that. There are going to be a lot of angels and clerics in standard come Kaldheim, and I think Righteous Valkyrie is primed to take advantage of that - this is going to be a three drop to keep your eyes on!

Graven Lore seems like a cool addition (heh, "cool", get it?) to the snow control deck that will likely be played after Kaldheim releases. That's a potential scry 5 in the late game, which could be super useful if you're behind and need to stack your deck. Dream Devourer might just be a gimmick, but I could actually see this demon being a cool part of a foretell deck. The cynic in me makes me think it won't be that impactful, but I'm hoping I'm wrong!

Birgi, God of Storytelling, piques my interest something fierce. I think there's the potential for this being super powerful in the right shell, though I'm not certain what that shell is going to be. The ability to boast twice seems pretty powerful, and lategame having Harnfel, Horn of Bounty seems like a great way to filter through your deck and get some card advantage going.

Daaang, The Bloodsky Massacre is metal as all get out. If there's a berserker tribal deck that gets played this next season, I expect this saga to be in it. It makes a berserker, draws you cards, and ramps you - what more could you want? Similarly, The Raven's Warning seems like a pretty good addition to the UW flyers deck. You can gain life and get a bird, take a peek at your opponent's hand and draw a card, and grab something from your sideboard! I wouldn't be surprised to see this played.

I'm not sure how good Cosmos Elixir is going to be in a competitive setting, but it looks like a fun lifegain tool to play around with! Is Tyrite Sanctum too slow to be much good? I like the idea of making the Kaldheim gods indestructible like their Theros counterparts, but I'm not sure if the sanctum will cut it in standard.

January 16th

Arni Brokenbrow's flavor text, "I headbutted a troll. And won." made me laugh out loud, and he seems like an awesome addition to the standard mono-red list! On its own, a 3/3 with haste for three mana is fine, but the boast ability could make this berserker a key piece of the new aggressive red build. Immerstrum Predator is a vampire and a dragon! I think this will be an awesome addition to RB sacrifice strategies and expect to face down a ton of copies of this dragon on the Arena ladder.

I could see Blessing of Frost seeing play in a snow-based big green creature deck as a one or two of, possibly? If you can find a way to make sure that you're drawing cards for each creature you control this could be pretty powerful, but that seems like magical Christmas land. Doomskar Titan seems like a fun addition to the limited giant/berserker deck, but I'm not sure if we'll see it in standard. (Also, I was broken-hearted when I looked closer at the little green beings and realized they weren't goblins.)

Ascent of the Worthy continues the tradition of sagas having fantastic art, but I'm not sold on its constructed potential. In an aggressive BW deck, taking turn three off to play this seems like it would be a bit too slow, but perhaps there is a more control-oriented BW deck that would want to play this? Maja, Bretagard Protector seems like it has potential in an aggressive GW creature deck, but the five mana cost seems a bit steep.

January 15th

BIG GREEN MYTHIC TIME! Battle Mammoth fulfills a lot of checkboxes that make it good for a big green creature deck. It has a big body with trample, it draws you cards, and it has a foretell cost that could allow for playing it early. However, taking turn four off could be a big stumbling block for a lot of decks, so the foretell might not be the best way to play this. At first glance, I'm a fan of Glorious Protector. A flyer with flash and a 3/4 body seems like a decent card on it's own - and being able to temporarily exile creatures of your own at instant speed could definitely come in handy.

Is it just me, or does In Search of Greatness seem kind of bonkers in a big mana creature deck? I can see this going great in mono green creature lists, gruul lists, and probably also the UG lists that are high on permanents. I might be overvaluing it, but I think the ability to put out progressively larger permanents or at the very least scry is going to be very powerful in standard. The goblin lover in my heart hates Crippling Fear. You could see the conditional part of this boardwipe as a downside or an upside, depending on what kind of deck you stick it in, but I think the ability to leave your creatures on the battlefield will be an upside with most lists (unless you end up in a mirror match.)

Reidane, God of the Worthy seems like a super cool hate card to fight against both snow decks and big mana control decks. Flying and vigilance might make Reidane more than just a super good sideboard card as well. Valkmira, Protector's Shield also seems like a super fun hate card. Preventing one damage is fairly negligible, but I like the counter ability paired with it. I know I'm interested in playing both sides of this god in standard!

I love the art for Niko Defies Destiny, but I'm not sure how competitive it is going to be. Foretold decks might end up being a big deal, in which case this could see some play, but based on what we've seen so far I doubt this will see a ton of constructed play. Arni Slays the Troll looks like it will see a lot more play. Gruul decks already run some number of fight cards, and I think this saga's next chapters give it a pretty good upside.

January 14th

I think Cosima, God of the Voyage is a really neat design. I'm not much of a blue player, so I'm sure I'm missing the true potential of the card, but it seems sweet. Drawing cards and getting counters is always good, and The Omenkeel seems like it could be really advantageous in a vehicle heavy deck.

I have the same opinion of Gates of Istfell that I do the rest of the cycle - gorgeous art and decent limited potential. Now, Tundra Fumarole is a burn spell I can really get behind! It may be sorcery speed, but the fact that it can also help you ramp seems really good.

I love the art on both Skemfar Elderhall and Gnottvold Slumbermound, but like Axeguard Armory, I'm unsure of how good they'll actually be outside of limited.

Cyclone Summoner seems like it could be decent as the top end of a giant or wizard control deck, though I'm a little worried that it's seven mana cost might make it a bit prohibitive if standard speeds up even more with the release of the new set. I think Mystic Reflection seems super cool and like pretty decent pseudo-removal. As my friend Skinner pointed out, this is a pretty fun answer to Ugin, and the foretell cost means it can be waiting there for you to use just in time to stop the annoying planeswalker.

Again, we've already seen Aegar, the Freezing Flame and Narfi, Betrayer King, but I couldn't help but bring up these amazing showcase versions. I don't think I've seen a showcase version of a card from Kaldheim I didn't immediately love, and I know I'm definitely going to be trying to add plenty of these to my personal collection.

Runed Crown seems like a really interesting design, and depending on how good runes end up being this could end up being a decent piece of equipment. I think Axegard Armory's cost to actually search for an equipment or aura is too high to be very useful, but I could be wrong!

Skemfar Avenger seems like a sweet aggressive two drop for the GB elf deck. The art is super rad, it looks like it will be great in draft, and I'm sure it will find its way into an aggressive elf/berserker standard deck at some point during its time in standard. I really like Ascendant Spirit, though I'm not sure how much play it will actually see. The potential with the different levels is definitely there, and I'll be excited to see it on the battlefield if it catches on!

January 13th

It's Wednesday, my dudes! The spoilers keep coming, and we're getting closer and closer to having the full set revealed!

At first glance, Firja's Retribution looks like it is going to be incredibly powerful in Standard. It's powerful enough alone, but pair it with something like Doom Foretold and this is going to be even more of a force to be reckoned with. I'm seeing a lot of people on Twitter worrying about the power level of this card, and I'm not going to jump the gun on worrying, but this does seem like it is going to be one of the premier cards of the new standard.

I believe Burning-Rune Demon was already spoiled, but today was the first time I saw the English translation, and with the cool borderless version too! A 6/6 flyer for six mana seems fine, especially in draft, but the rest of the text makes this seem like a pretty fun card to play around with. Being able to tutor up a card is powerful, but I'm not sure about letting your opponent choose which one of the two you get.

Snow zombies! Narfi, Betrayer King seems like a super powerful uncommon to me. Narfi can be returned from the graveyard at instant speed, and I doubt you'll be paying the full mana cost to play this wizard. Pitch it to your bin with something like Rotting Regisaur or something similar, and then return it with your snow lands.

Aegar, the Freezing Flame is another powerful uncommon, and I imagine it will slot in nicely with the rest of the giant cards we've been seeing.

We get to see two new rare sagas today! Battle for Bretagard looks like some good old fashioned GW token fun. This will be right at home in all of the casual Trostani, Selesnya's Voice Commander decks out there, and I wouldn't be surprised if it saw some standard play as well.

With Battle of Frost and Fire, I'm becoming convinced there are going to be several different versions of the giant deck being played in Standard. This will fit right in with the Izzet control variant (maybe with another color?) I think. It does a lot of what control decks want to do - wipe the board (in non-giant matches), scry, and draw cards.

January 12th

Tuesday brings us the god of death, more giants, and some fantastic showcase arts!

We've already seen both of these cards, but I just had to take a second to mention how fantastic I think both of these showcase arts are. Look at how metal they are!

Stranheim Unleashed basically gives you a Serra Angel token! Using the foretell cost can net you several Serra Angel stand-ins, but that seems unlikely unless you're playing a deck that lets you get to the long game.

My friend Tom showed me Weathered Runestone, saying, "So, this is a slightly better Grafdigger's Cage that costs one more mana?" I think in a lot of cases I would prefer to be playing the cage since it hits the battlefield sooner, but I'm sure this runestone will be a super useful sideboard card in the right metas.

Jorn, God of Winter seems like a fantastic card in a snow-based deck if you can consistently attack with them. Being able to untap lands is always good, and Jorn lets you untap your lands and snow creatures to act as blockers. Kaldring, the Rimestaff seems like more of a late-game component for a snow deck, but nonetheless, I can imagine it being powerful in the right build.

We got two giant wizards today! I can see the potential for Basalt Ravager to fit into the giant tribal deck we've seen developing, or even just as a powerful finisher in any tribal deck that has access to red. Frostpyre Arcanist will likely almost always cost one less in the decks it slots into, and is an interesting way to tutor for instants and sorceries.

I'm having a hard time evaluating Egon, God of Death. A 6/6 for three mana is nothing to scoff at, but with the need to exile two cards from your graveyard without losing it, the likelihood of you playing it as early as you would want to seems slim. If you pair Egon with their backside, Throne of Death, you'll have a lot more cards in your graveyard to work with. Maybe Egon will be in a stand out self mill style deck?

January 11th

The spoilers keep coming, and today we got a look at a new god, a red counterspell, and tons of gorgeous showcase versions of new and previously spoiled cards!

I think Harald, King of Skemfar is a really cool addition to the elf tribal strategy we're starting to see develop. He's a decent body and allows you to dig for more creatures or Tyvar Kell which seems like things the deck will want to be doing. Harald Unites the Elves does similar things in saga form, and it might actually end up being better than Harald the creature? Do you think they'll be played in the same deck? Either way, I dig the flavor on these and look forward to seeing them played.

Holy moly, as someone who has been piloting a ton of Doom Foretold decks in Standard recently, I am incredibly hyped to try out Tergrid, God of Fright in that style of deck. There are a ton of available sacrifice effects to experiment with, and my gut feeling says this is going to be one powerful god. Tergrid's Lantern also seems like a decent way to make your opponent sacrifice things and paired with Tergrid will be a force to be reckoned with!

Red gets a counterspell, and it is certainly befitting of its namesake! Tibalt's Trickery is kind of goofy, and definitely has a bit of a downside, but it looks like good silly fun and might actually prove to be pretty decent in the right deck. Reflections of Littjara seems like it could be super powerful in the right creature deck (Muxus, Goblin Grandee jank maybe?) and I'm excited to see what people come up with this one!

Today we got to see Kaldheim's version of Thor - Toralf, God of Fury and Toralf's Hammer! Toralf looks like a ton of fun to play with, and I'm sure there will be red burn decks created just to take advantage of his ability to deal excess damage to other permanents. I'm less sold on his hammer though. It's a super cool design, and I'm sure it will see some good standard use, but it's not my favorite new equipment by any means.

January 9th & 10th

Saturday and Sunday brought us some more awesome looking Kaldheim action!

I was super hyped on Eradicator Valkyrie when I first saw it, but then I saw someone on Twitter mention that it was basically a worse Rankle, Master of Pranks and now I'm not so sure how much I like it. I think the Valkyrie being a 4/3 is a big improvement, and sometimes lifelink matters more than Rankle's haste. I know I'll play the Valkyrie for sure - but only time will tell if I end up liking this Angel Berserker more than our old rogue friend Rankle.

Draugr Necromancer is giving me Skyrim flashbacks and I love it! This seems like a super fun card. I love the idea of stealing my opponent's creatures after they die, and the snow mana tie-in makes this even more appealing to me.

There was a whole slew of commons and uncommons spoiled this weekend, but I wanted to highlight these two legendary creatures that caught my eye. Vega, the Watcher seems like a super fun draw engine in UW and I imagine that it will see plenty of Standard, Historic, and possibly even the paper non-rotating formats. I could see Firja, Judge of Valor seeing play in the BW control list I imagine we'll be seeing in Kaldheim standard, and this angel seems like it will be right at home in casual EDH Angel tribal lists. Flying, lifelink, draws cards, and allows you to fill your graveyard - these are all great abilities for a creature to have!

Maskwood Nexus is blowing up Twitter right now with a lot of users speculating on its combo potential. I think this is a card we'll see a lot of in the early access Arena event for the set and one many players will be building with in the early Kaldheim standard. Faceless Haven is a snow man land! I love the art, but I'm not sure how useful this card will actually be competitively. I imagine that it will find a spot as a one or two of in Historic colorless control style decks, but I'm unsure where else it fits right now.

I'm super excited about Quakebringer being added to the Giant tribal cards we've been seeing. This giant seems super powerful already at five mana, and if you can use Foretell it gets even better - this is a card I'll definitely be playing with on the Arena ladder.

Vehicles are back with Esika's Chariot! Based on Freya's chariot of myth, this cat powered vehicle seems like a powerful addition to Standard green decks (with adorable art to boot!) The crew cost is a little high, but I don't think many of the aggressive green decks we'll be seeing will have a problem paying for it.

January 8th

Kaldheim spoilers continued their awesome, metal fury today! We're starting to get a much better idea of what the set is going to look like, and in my opinion, it's shaping up to be a fantastic, flavorful hit.

I love the flavor of Esika, God of the Tree and The Prismatic Bridge! The nod to the Rainbow Bridge of myth is fantastic for Norse mythology fans, and I can definitely see this card being a powerful addition to the Temur Ramp [card]Genesis Ultimatum[/cards] decks that are currently popular in Standard.

I'd be lying to you if I said I didn't roll my eyes a little when Koma, Cosmos Serpent was spoiled. Uro and Oko have left a bad taste in many players' mouths when it comes to powerful UG creatures, and this serpent seems like it is aiming to add its name to the list. Cosmos Charger seems like it could be pretty powerful in a Foretell based deck and I'm excited to see if one develops and makes good use of this new horse spirit.

I think Kolvori, God of Kinship and The Ringheart Crest are an interesting design. I'm sure with all of the gods floating around there will be a deck that makes good use of the legendary creature requirement to buff Kolvori, and the crest seems like a decent mana rock.

Cassius Marsh spoiled The World Tree on Twitter today - and the internet immediately started complaining about how the world tree isn't a legendary land (and honestly, I'm a little confused about it too from a Vorthos perspective.) This seems like a powerful land in the ramp strategies we have available to us right now, and I'm sure you'll hear me complaining about it's prevalence in a future podcast episode.

We also got a look at Tyvar Kell, which seems like a huge hit for elf tribal fans. This seems like a pretty fantastic planeswalker for elf tribal EDH, and if we get enough elves in this set there's no way we won't see an elf tribal deck featuring Tyvar. I'm excited to give him a shot!

We got to see two new Sagas today! Forging the Tyrite Sword seems a little underwhelming, but outside of being decent in draft I'm sure it will find a place in some sort of equipment deck. I'm debating how good The Trickster-God's Heist actually is in constructed, but it looks like a hilarious flavor win to me. This is going to lead to a ton of goofy, exciting games against UB and I'm pumped for the fun!

Calamity Bearer was, unfortunately, one of the early leaks, but Jess Estephan's official pie-filled preview hit Twitter this morning (the berry pie she made to tie in with the card looks amazing, by the way.) Calamity Bearer looks like another decent piece of the giant tribal deck we're anticipating and I think it has potential to be a hit in Kaldheim standard.

The band In Hearts Wake previewed Goldspan Dragon on Twitter this morning as well, and I think there's a good chance it will fit in with a future big red styled standard deck, possibly going hand in hand with Magda, Brazen Outlaw.

January 7th

Spoilers kicked off with a bang today! Jimmy Wong was joined by metal band Immersturm to ham it up and show us some awesome cards on the Magic Twitch channel and I'm more hyped than ever for the set.

Okay, so one of the big leaks that was floating around the internet was also confirmed today. I didn't believe it could be true (all right Casey - you win this one), but Vorinclex is back in Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider. We still don't know how or why the Praetor is devouring people on Kaldheim, but this is sure to be a sought after card. There are three versions of the art, one being in actual Phyrexian, it has trample and haste, and buffs your counters while hampering your opponent's counters. At first glance, I think this has a lot of action with sagas in standard, but I'm sure I'm only scratching the surface at this Phyrexian's potential.

TALK ABOUT METAL! Varragoth, Bloodsky Sire is our first look at the boast mechanic (and also has one of the gnarliest showcase arts we've seen yet) and at first glance, I think this card will see a good amount of play. You can only activate the boast once per turn, and only if the creature attacked, but at least in this case I imagine you'll be fine attacking with your creature because it's a 2/3 with deathtouch. Being able to tutor a card to the top of your deck is awesome (maybe less awesome with all the mill in standard right now) and I think this is one of the big flashy black cards people will be doing a lot of experimenting with early on with Kaldheim's release.

Apparently, Kaldheim is composed of ten realms, with each realm being populated by a particular creature type, and Old-Growth Troll is our first glimpse at Kaldheim trolls! This troll seems like a great addition to mono-green strategies and I'm sure will see standard play. Sigrid, God-Favored seems like it will fit in great with the mono-white strategies we've been seeing in standard, especially with protection from God creatures, Flash, and being able to exile a creature. This is the kind of value that white, taxes-ish strategies will be looking for in Standard for sure, though I'm not sure Sigrid will see much eternal play. I guess it depends on how good the gods are!

Snow duals and snow instants! People have speculated about these coming into existence someday - and that day is now! Alpine Meadow is the RW version of this cycle (each pairing is in the set but I didn't think we needed to have them all here.) I'm not entirely sure how I feel about these yet other than I think they're cool (heh, get it?) and will probably see some pauper play. Frost Bite however, is guaranteed to see pauper play, and maybe in other formats too! Snow basics are also coming to Kaldheim, as was expected.

Binding the Old Gods is another new saga that I think will actually see a good amount of play. The removal might be sorcery speed, which can be a downside, but it also helps you ramp with the second chapter and then finishes with deathtouch. I think a lot of the Golgari control style decks we've been seeing in standard could slot this in even if nothing else synergistic comes out in the set, but I'm sure we'll see more cards that play well with it down the line. Elvish Warmaster seems like a pretty typical elf lord. I doubt this elf warrior will see much play in eternal formats, but I could see it being good in standard.

We also got another one of the modal gods today! Alrund, God of the Cosmos (this set's nod to Odin from Norse mythology) may be a 1/1, but he gets +1/+1 for each card in your hand and each foretold card you own in exile, which paired with his effect could make for a pretty large and in charge god. I really love his other side, Hakka, Whispering Raven, which is a flyer that lets you scry and also returns to your hand so you can play Alrund later! I think this one will see a lot of play.

We got to see the full Niko Aris planeswalker card today, which seems like a great addition to standard control lists. This is our first look at shard tokens, which will be decent card draw advantage (and will be interesting with enchantment matters cards), and all of Niko's abilities seem like they do things that you want to be doing as a control player. Returning your own creatures will be pretty great with the modal cards we're getting this set, doing damage is always good, and shard tokens seem like a decent thing to be making when the game slows down! We also got to see Alrund's Epiphany today, which shows off the Foretell mechanic (and seems like a huge headache for a mono-red player like myself.) Players will always find ways to abuse taking extra turns - I think this is a card to keep an eye on.

Tibalt is back, baby! I think this is such a cool way to bring the fan-favorite planeswalker back. He's impersonating a god from Kaldheim known as Valki, God of Lies - which has an interesting mechanic that lets you copy creatures that you exiled from your opponent's hand, but the backside of the card is a fairly expensive Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor. Coming in with the emblem makes him seem pretty powerful, even though seven mana can be rather steep. My first impression of this card is that it is going to be a powerful addition to standard Rakdos control style builds, and I'm sure he'll be seeing play.

January 6th

We weren't expecting any more official spoilers until tomorrow, but Amy the Amazonian got to share a preview early on Twitter today!

Invasion of the Giants is a new saga (with amazing art, which seems typical of sagas), this time for Izzet players. This seems pretty cool with the apparent giant tribal we'll be getting and seems like it will at least play well with all-star Bonecrusher Giant! I for one am incredibly excited about the idea of giant tribal and can't wait to see how this archetype develops.

December 24th

We've been on the edge of our seats since the 17th waiting for more spoilers (not counting the potential weird leaks floating around) and today brings something super flavorful!

Look, a standard-legal squirrel! Toski, Bearer of Secrets is obviously based on Ratatoskr from Norse mythology, which I think is a super cool reference. The jury is still out on how competitive this card will end up being, but I think we can all agree that it is an incredible flavor win. I think it being uncounterable and also indestructible is pretty relevant - but being a 1/1 for four mana doesn't' seem super impactful in today's standard meta.

December 17th

During the Weekly MTG: Metal Week Recap today, we got a glimpse at two new legendary creatures from the new Kaldheim Commander decks! Both Lathril, Blade of the Elves and Ranar the Ever-Watchful look like a ton of fun to play with and I'm excited to see what the rest of the pre-cons look like!

It looks like someone let a wolf out of the bag! Sarulf, Realm Eater is another super cool flavor win for Kaldheim. At first glance, a 3/3 for three mana doesn't seem great, as the Spikes of Reddit are already yelling about, but I could see the +1/+1 counter interactions being useful in the right shell, and being able to exile multiple permanents at once is something that has been proven to be incredibly useful this Standard season.

December 16th

We're onto Day 2 of a very Metal week of spoilers!

Metal legends Amon Amarth spoiled a really rad Kaldheim card today in Halvar, God of Battle and flip side Sword of the Realms. Halvar is a fantastic creature for an equipment matters style aggressive deck. I could see him working well alongside Maul of the Skyclaves, Archon of Emeria, and my favorite Zendikar Rising card Skyclave Apparition.

Sword of the Realms is a sword that any brave creature would be honored to wield in battle, with the awesome-for-aggro upside of returning the equipped creature to its owner's hand.

Continuing the previews from metal bands, Oceans of Slumber previewed the newest Kaya planeswalker card, Kaya the Inexorable! Kaya's mana cost seems a bit high for my tastes, but the minus three is an awesome ability that fits with Kaya's flavor really well, and I think the plus one ability will probably be useful in several different shells come the new standard season.

Changelings in the house, baby! Realmwalker looks like a fantastic addition to all kinds of tribal strategies and being able to look at the top card of your library and cast it if it's a creature of the chosen type is an awesome ability I'm excited to play with. This card was spoiled today by the band Rhapsody of Fire.

Heavy metal band Smoulder revealed this sweet new aggressive red dwarf today. Magda, Brazen Outlaw looks like a super fun indicator that we might be able to play an aggressive dwarf tribal deck in the upcoming standard season! Being able to buff your dwarves, create treasures, and also search up artifacts or dragons seems super impressive for this new two-drop.

Wizards also dropped an article today going over the additional set and theme booster cards that will be legal in any format Kaldheim is legal in. There's a neat assortment of super flavorful cards listed in the article (I'll share the rares below) and we also learn that the names for the upcoming Kaldheim commander decks are Canopy Tactician, Elderfang Ritualist, Elven Ambush, and Surtland Elementalist.

I also included Rampage of the Valkyries here because the art is incredible. At first glance, none of these cards seem super relevant for competitive play, but I think Wizards did a great job of including fun, flavorful cards in their set and theme booster product for the newer players that gravitate towards them.

December 15th

Today is kicking off with some reveals from popular Metal bands. Mastodon kicked off spoiler season with previews of the new Kaldheim pathways:

We found out from Brazil-based metal band Angra's preview that sagas are coming back, with Showdown of the Skalds:

This seems like a pretty rad re-introduction to Sagas, and one that will fit well with aggressive creature-based strategies. Speaking creatures:

Pyre of Heroes is a neat artifact that supports creature strategies. I could see this being useful in a tribal type deck or possibly an updated standard Winota list.

No Middle Ground: Kaldheim Spoiler Week 2

Posted on January 19, 2021 by David Ernenwein

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It's an odd set where there doesn't appear to be anything amiss. As I'm writing this sentence, there is nothing that even vaguely resembles anything dangerous. Which is not a bad thing. It's just weird, given that we've had the companions, Astrolabe, Uro, Oko, and Hogaak in the past two years busting everything. And that's not even counting shakeups from cards like the MDFC's. A non-Core expansion being fairly meh for Modern is a breath of fresh air. Hopefully, that means Wizards has corrected itself.

Not a lot has changed since last week. There are a number of interesting cards that might find the right niche and see Modern play. And then there are the cards I'm focusing on today, which are either busted in half or unplayable. I don't see a middle ground. The problem is that they're either combo pieces or build-around cards, and those are always extremely hit or miss. As such, I'll be laying out the opportunities and problems for each. However, first I need to update something from last week.

'Snow More To See Here

I previously mentioned that while snow was back, it didn't really mean anything. There was no payoff to having snow lands besides Ice-Fang Coatl, but there was still no harm to playing snow basics. And that continues to be the case. There have been a number of cards that care about having three or more snow permanents spoiled, but none of them are Modern playable. Double whammy of too expensive and too small an effect. There are also a few cards that benefit snow permanents, in particular Jorn, God of Winter. Problem is that Jorn is slow; Modern can already mass-untap permanents, and those effects don't see play. Which makes snow seem like a bust.

At least, the Kaldheim snow permanents seem a bust. One preexisting snow permanent stands to benefit from Kaldheim: Scrying Sheets. For years, Sheets's only purpose was to draw more Snow-Covered Mountains for fringe Skred Red decks. Even at the height of snow's saturation pre-Astrolabe ban, Sheets wasn't seeing play because it missed most of the time. However, that might be changing thanks to Kaldheim adding snow instants and sorceries. There aren't many, and most of them aren't remotely playable, but some are close enough that turning Sheets from... well, Sheets, into a worse Library of Alexandria that may in fact be playable, is becoming a possibility.

Tundra Fumarole

The only snow spell that I'm absolutely certain will see play is Tundra Fumarole. This is not because it is uniquely good for Modern, although it being (technically) a free spell is nothing to sneeze at. No, I know that I will see it because (assuming he comes back when paper comes back) there was a Skred Red Prison player at my LGS and I always played him at FNM. No other tournaments, just FNM. And he will, absolutely will, be playing Fumarole so he can kill something and drop Ensnaring Bridge or Karn, the Great Creator in the same turn. He will do so several times a match because that was just how those matches went. I can already feel my blood boiling with frustration and barely restrained rage.

However, Fumarole might be decent for Red Prison decks just in general, rather than just to torment me. It kills a decent chunk of Modern-playable creatures and planeswalkers without help, and planeswalkers in particular can be a problem for Skred decks. Prison decks also tend to be clunky thanks to relying on 4+ mana planeswalkers and Stormbreath Dragon to do all the heavy lifting, and a free-ish kill spell might act as much-needed wheel grease. For a deck that can't really double-spell under normal circumstances, Fumarole may be a huge boost. It also dodges Chalice of the Void, which is common to those decks. And again, at the bare minimum, Skred decks run Sheets already and Fumarole increases the snow density. I'm interested to see if I'm the only one to have Fumarole pointed at my stuff for that reason.

Graven Lore

Under normal circumstances, a five-mana instant draw spell would not be a consideration. Fact or Fiction is cheaper and in many ways better and sees very little play these days. Which would normally disqualify Graven Lore. However, it has enough upside that it could make the cut. It's a snow card and can be found with Sheets, which granted isn't a huge boost to playability. However, it also synergizes with Sheets. Lore will scry a max of five cards in a snow deck, meaning it can be used to draw the three cards you want/need on the opponent's end step and then set up a Sheets activation. Which is a bit niche but a huge card advantage swing.

However, even without Sheets, Lore is potentially a powerful top-end card. It's scry first then draw, which is extremely powerful (see also: Preordain vs Serum Visions). This suggests that Lore can be used to close the door for a control deck. Either what they need is in the top five cards or they dig eight cards deep, which makes it statistically likely that a key spell is actually found. The issue in Modern is that Lore is competing with Teferi, Hero of Dominaria for that slot, and it isn't easy to beat out a planeswalker. Teferi does more and will keep accruing value for several turns. However, not every control deck has access to white, and many lean heavily on Jace, the Mind Sculptor. In that context, Lore could fulfil the same role of Jace support that Teferi does.

Snow Moon

I'd planned to end it there, but as I was typing the thought occurred: Would Fumarole and Lore see play together? A lot of their playability is being snow and synergizing with Sheets coupled with benefits for slower decks. And there exists a slower UR deck that could use some help. Blue Moon has been hanging around for years and plays primarily basic lands. Is there benefit to going for a hard snow basic manabase with Sheets as a payoff? Previous incarnations of Blue Moon were tempo decks, and they've largely fallen out of Modern. Too low-power, too reliant on counterspells. Perhaps going deeper on Blood Moon and snow would invigorate the archetype. At very least, the removal improves thanks to Skred.

Either Busted or Worthless

There's a minor theme of really swingy combo pieces in Kaldheim. It's not like they're tied to the set themes or mechanics, and to my knowledge, neither Rosewater or Wizards has acknowledged it, but there are a higher than normal number of cards that are either busted combo pieces or bulk rares. It seems like they wanted to print combo pieces for Commander and really went out of their way to limit their potential in constructed. And it worked; the power of these cards will be very hard to access consistently.

These types of cards are very hard to evaluate because it all comes down to the reliability of the shell and the opportunity costs in said deck. There's always potential in these cards, but realizing it is very hard. Or impossible if the opponent interacts at all. So take it under advisement: The three cards I'm going to discuss here might be worthless, but they could be absurd. There's not much middle ground, and I'll be evaluating them as such.

In Search of Greatness

First up, I'm certain that In Search of Greatness will see in play in Modern. Again, it's because I know a very specific player will play it against me assuming I ever see him again. He's tried to make Pioneer-style Green Devotion work in Modern, and I'm certain that he'd try Greatness there, because I see it as fitting that deck: ifyou open with a Leyline (preferably Leyline of Abundance, but any will do) and have Greatness on turn 2, turn three Nissa, Who Shakes the World comes down and the ramp goes quickly out of control. Which he would certainly use for a Genesis Wave but a more sane person would probably just Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Either way, it'd be very hard for anyone to come back from that start.

That is assuming that everything comes together in the right order. Such a start is not really as Magical Christmasland as one would imagine (I've seen those devotion decks do very nutty things surprisingly often). However, is Greatness an effect that such a deck needs? It's surprisingly easy to ramp into turn three Nissa as is, though doing so precludes also dropping Ugin the same turn. However, all of this is assuming that Greatness would actually ramp the deck. Greatness doesn't count itself, so there's no playing Greatness in a vacuum and getting a three drop. The only way to jump the curve is to have additional permanents besides Greatness, and the opponent will probably have something to say about that. And without permanents in hand at the start of upkeep that qualify, all Greatness does is scry 1. Which isn't nothing, but it's not good enough.

There are so many qualifiers about Greatness being good, that the name becomes very appropriate. There's huge potential when everything goes right, but there are a ton of opportunities for it all to go wrong. And when it isn't just being absurd, it's pretty terrible. It's not reliably a ramp spell, it's something else, and I feel like treating it as ramp won't pan out.

However, maybe it should be seen in a different light. A lot of Greatness's problems (bad without the right spells in hand at the right time, needs a lot of setup) can also be said of Show and Tell, and that's been a Legacy Staple for years. That deck has to cantrip a lot to position itself to make Show good, similar to the effort and investment necessary to make Greatness work. I have no idea how to set it up nor can I figure out it would ever be better than existing options for cheating in big things. But it does seem like this is the way to go.

Pyre of Heroes

Pyre of Heroes was the first non-land card I saw spoiled from Kaldheim. And it looked promising. For half the cost to cast but twice the cost to activate it was a tribal Birthing Pod. And immediately I saw a ton of speculation to exactly that effect. And then nothing. I haven't seen chatter or updates on any brews in over a month. I'm not sure if brewers went silent to hide their tech, everyone gave up, or something else. I don't know. However, I do know why the straightforward approaches fell off.

Why bother with Pyre in a tribal deck? It's a tutor that is neutral on both card advantage and board position. All it does is find a different card up the chain. Humans wouldn't bother. Turning Noble Hierarch into Meddling Mage against a combo deck is decent, but that's as good as it gets. Goblins doesn't need Pyre, they have Goblin Matron. Elementals has Flamekin Harbinger and Risen Reef to burn through their deck. Playing Pyre as a tribal tutor is unnecessary.

However, what about playing it as Pod was in either value or combo form? Combo Pod was capable of turn-three wins, and Value Pod is why the card is banned. And there is potential in either approach. However, the problem is that tribal component. The old Pod chains don't work, and the solution (as far as I could find, anyway) isn't very good. The only way to bridge the gaps in either the value or combo chains is to use changelings. This is a problem because on their own, they're not very good. Which is a huge problem for the value chain and prevents the combo chain from going off in one turn. The extra mana is less prohibitive than I thought, but still a problem too.

If someone figures out how to make the chain work fluidly, there's real promise here. Otherwise, Pyre will join Prime Speaker Vannifar on the pyre of false Pods.

Tibalt's Trickery

And finally, we have the combo piece that Wizards took inordinate lengths to keep as inconsistent and weak as possible. What Tibalt's Trickery's wall of text actually means is that it's a Polymorph for spells, but it's hard to set up. And definitely isn't a break, and it's weird that you think it as, which is why Rosewater seems rather worried about its implications. Trickery counters a spell, mills between 1-3 cards, and then casts the next spell with a different name in the target's library. Any spell. Which could be a better one than was countered, so it will never be used defensively without massive amounts of help. At which point, why not run a normal counterspell?

However, its potential as a Polymorph effect is tantalizing. And it's been suggested, that it can be exploited. The level 0 suggestion is a deck of lands, Trickery, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, and Shadowborn Apostle. Which is the best way to drop a turn 3 Emrakul I've heard in a while. However, such a deck could only guarentee a 4/7 chance to hit Emrakul, and would 100% lose to Meddling Mage. So I've seen others working on diversifying the threats, which makes the deck have a very Hypergenesis feel. Much like a theoretical Modern Hypergenesis deck, such a Trickery deck would be absurd when it comes together, but easily disrupted and prone to failure. I'd keep my eye on Trickery, but not really worry.

Silent as Snow

It looks like we escaped Kaldheim without another Uro. Or even Mystic Sanctuary. All that's left to do is start working on these cards and find out how well the crystal ball's working.

Kaldheim Made Giant Tribal Commander Decks A Thing

Posted on January 19, 2021January 18, 2021 by Adam Yurchick

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The spoiling of Dwarves returning as a tribal theme in Kaldheim brought attention and big price spikes to some existing Dwarves and enablers, like Dwarven Bloodboiler and Dwarven Recruiter. The reveal of a Giants theme isn’t quite the same surprise, as Giants have seen more significant support in recent years compared to Dwarves being brought back from the dead, but it’s sure to increase demand for past Giants and drive up prices, so there may be some opportunities.

The Giants of Kaldheim

The biggest surprise from Kaldheim is that the Giant tribe has expanded to blue, specifically Izzet, where in the past its red base has been paired with white. Sagas Invasion of the Giants and Battle of Frost and Fire are two exciting new Izzet-color Giant-themed cards driving buzz for the tribe. Red and blue have each brought a few exciting Giant cards of their own - in total Kaldheim brings around 10 quality cards for a Giant Commander deck.

The printing of Legendary Giant Aegar, the Freezing Flame brings a perfect new build-around Commander for the tribe. There already happens to be a giant Commander available in Ruhan of the Fomori, which opens up a full three-color Jeskai deck that has all of the best cards the Giant tribe has to offer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruhan of the Fomori

An obscure card with just one printing almost ten years ago, and available for around $4, Ruhan of the Fomori seems like a great spec in anticipation of Kaldheim driving new Giant Commander decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Giant Harbinger

A sure inclusion in any Giant Commander deck will be Giant Harbinger, which has one printing over 13 years ago but is still only worth about a quarter. There are far fewer of these floating around than more recent cards, and a sudden spike of demand will start drying up supplies and drive the price higher.

There’s a bunch of older giants that don’t really see much play, so a spike in demand from nothing to something could start really sending prices up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Protector of the Crown

One good-looking Giant for a spec is Protector of the Crown, which brings the powerful Monarch effect along with a very Giant-esque ability. Its price has actually already tripled since December, up to $2.30 from around $0.75, and the trajectory shows now signs of turning down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Palisade Giant

Palisade Giant brings its own version of the same damage-soaking effect, and with a single printing feels like a bargain at $0.30.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Countryside Crusher

Countryside Crusher has always been an underrated and underplayed card for its ability to filter lands away while growing into a big threat. It is surely one of the more competitive Giants ever printed, and at a buck feels like a solid price as Giants evolve into a real tribe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jötun Owl Keeper

An obscure Giant that I have my eye on is Jotun Owl Keeper, which like Countryside Crusher is unique for being a relatively low-cost card in a tribe full of creatures costing 6 or more mana. It’s a solid card that generates value, and even includes blue in its cumulative upkeep cost, so seems to be a great fit. As an Uncommon from Coldsnap, a set notorious for low supply and high prices, feels cheap at a quarter.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thryx, the Sudden Storm

It should also be noted that Theros Beyond Death brought Thryx, the Sudden Storm, which quietly belied that blue Giants were coming as a tribe, where it acts as a perfect support card. As a recent card I’m not sure this can really spike huge anytime soon, but sitting at $0.50 over the past year, must be underpriced given recent developments with the tribe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Realm-Cloaked Giant

Realm-Cloaked Giant as a sweeper for non-Giant creatures is a perfect fit into a Giant tribal deck. This Giant aspect wasn’t too interesting when it was printed in Throne of Eldraine, but it now makes sense and looks like a solid pickup as a $1 mythic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunrise Sovereign

There was an error retrieving a chart for Borderland Behemoth

At around $0.50 each, Giant lord Sunrise Sovereign and synergizer Borderland Behemoth both have room to grow, but be aware they've each seen multiple printings.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cunning Giant

Giants aren’t a heavily supported tribe nor one that is likely to make a particularly competitive deck at this point; it’s going to be mostly for the fun and flavor. For that reason, I’m intrigued by some of the older and coolest Giants that would seem to be easy inclusions in a Giant tribal deck, like Cunning Giant from Portal and Frost Giant from Legends.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Two-Headed Giant Of Foriys

The highest-ticket Giant and one way to try to cash in on the tribe is Magic’s original Giant, Two-Headed Giant of Foriys. A relatively iconic card as a powerhouse from Magic’s early days, and one that demands a premium for this fact, its value surely benefits from Giants gaining support as a bonafide tribal strategy. Buying Alpha, Beta, or Unlimited copies could pay off as players start seeking them for decks or their collections, especially as this recent Giant support makes it even more likely we’ll see it supported again in the future.

Trust the Process

While Giants may or may not really pop, this is the sort of process worth going through when analyzing a new set for its potential impact on Commander deckbuilding and in turn the market, which at this point has Commander as its #1 factor to consider over any other format. You could go through this same process with the Berserker tribe supported in Kaldheim, which has driven up the price of Lovisa Coldeyes and could impact more down the line. Every set has its own theme and potential Commanders, and each of them has the potential to spike demand for existing cards.

Discipline for a New Wave of Buyouts

Posted on January 18, 2021January 17, 2021 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Don’t panic.

It’s a phrase on the cover of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy and it seems particularly relevant given last week’s activity in Magic’s secondary market. The movement reached beyond the MTG finance community, and far more influential members of the community have started observing some gravity-defying trends.

Believe it or not, I did not hack Saffron’s account to tweet this, even though I’m envious that he shared this comparison before I could.

What does this all mean? Is Magic ruined forever because of these sudden, drastic price moves?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wheel Of Fortune

This week I’ll share my suggestions on how to approach this dynamic seller’s market.

Tip 1: Don’t Panic

I begin my article with this mantra because it is the most important reminder when navigating an overheated market. It’s so easy to see Wheel of Fortune sell out and panic buy any copy you can find on the internet. I know this because of my own firsthand experiences—yesterday when a friend pointed out the card’s disappearance, I searched everywhere I knew of for a remaining copy. (No luck, by the way).

In the past, I’ve written about the fear of missing out, “FOMO” for short, and how it can lead us to poor purchasing decisions. When we see a card is suddenly in much more demand, our psychology drives us to desire the card even more. We also start to project into the future, thinking about our inability to afford the card and our sudden, desperate need to have a copy “just in case.” These feelings can be powerful.

But we must not give in to the temptation. It’s easy to jump to the conclusion that Wheel of Fortune will now and forever be a $2000 card based on TCGplayer trends. It’s important to remember that a bought out card almost never retains its full price growth—there’s always a retracement. It has already started in the case of Wheel of Fortune. I’m seeing HP copies for just under $300 and LP for $450.

When I checked last night, there were three listings for this card. Now there are twenty-one. There will be more by the end of today. Price spikes always bring loose copies out of the woodwork, and the new competition helps drive the price back down again.

Will it make a round trip back to its pre-buyout price? No. That ship has in fact sailed. But purchasing a copy in reaction to the buyout is a recipe to overpay and lose money. It’s hard to think of this when in the moment, so that’s why my first recommendation is “don’t panic.”

Ask Yourself: Is This About Money or Gameplay?

After allaying your fears that you’ll never be able to own a copy of the card again, the next thing I’d ask is your motivation for suddenly desiring the card.

Not long ago, speculators made a move on Revised Vesuvan Doppelganger.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vesuvan Doppelganger

The card is on the Reserved List, and is one of the icons from my childhood. I remember my LGS had a copy of the card listed for $25 back in the late 1990’s. Every time I visited, I would browse through their disorganized singles binder and would come across this card and marvel at its beauty. But for a 14-year-old, $25 was steep; that amount of money could purchase 8 booster packs, for example!

Then one day the dream became reality—the LGS put all their singles on a 50% off sale. With the help of a parent, I was finally able to acquire the Vesuvan Doppelganger. I cherished that card as my “most valuable” and “most powerful” card for quite some time.

When I saw that people were buying out this childhood favorite, my emotions started kicking in. Should I go out and buy a bunch before it was too late? It would be a shame for these to be triple the price simply because Rudy of Alpha Investments made a video about Revised cards. Luckily, before I could make any regretful decisions, I took a step back.

Why was I suddenly interested in Revised Vesuvan Doppelganger? I already own a single copy; it resides in my mono blue Commander deck. Any time I want to relive that moment of my childhood, I can take that copy out and admire it. Each incremental copy I could purchase would not really add to my nostalgia more than the first did.

I realized my motivation wasn’t out of nostalgia. Nor was the copy so important to me from a gameplay perspective. I was content to own one copy for over a decade; why at that moment was I unhappy not owning more? My motivation was purely financial. I came to the realization that I saw money being made and I wasn’t participating in the fruitful market.

But Magic shouldn’t be all about the money. If Vesuvan Doppelganger is about childhood nostalgia, then buying up a dozen extra copies would fly in the face of this and objectify the card. Am I truly only into Magic for its financial component? I wrote a lengthy article last week describing my desire to avoid that mentality. So while I was disappointed that the card was suddenly more expensive, I came to accept that I didn’t really need more than one copy. I never did. If I want to make money from Magic, there’s never reason to regret missing out on a spike because there is always another. Always.

The Sloppy Buyout

The next tip I have when navigating buyouts is more pragmatic in nature. Often times when people buy out a card, they start with TCGplayer and focus on the lightly played and near mint copies. Why is this the first place to buy? Because it causes the action to hit the radar of multiple websites. MTGStocks, for example, uses TCG’s listed median price to display on its Interests page. By buying up LP and NM copies, and then reposting one for an astronomical number, it creates a “spike” on the price charts.

It’s pretty easy to identify the culprits who are driving the “spike” on MTGStocks. No one is going to pay $4,500 for a near mint Wheel. I’m sorry.

When the buyout starts, the MP, HP, and Damaged copies are usually left behind. In addition, not all websites are cleaned out of the card. It’s a little more time consuming to soak up all the copies on eBay. Star City Games, ABUGames, Card Kingdom, Channel Fireball, and a smattering of other online vendors also don’t necessarily sell out simultaneously.

When I see a card is bought out, I actually use this practice as a therapeutic device. I surf the web, looking for HP/MP copies that haven’t been scooped up yet. Sometimes I luck out and find some and other times I don’t. Since I am not averse to played copies, I often have HP listings as an option as well.

Recently when I saw Lion's Eye Diamond was disappearing from the market, I managed to find a decently priced copy from Star City Games. This helped me feel like I wasn’t missing out on an opportunity to profit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lion's Eye Diamond

If I can find a copy of the card, then great! Simply purchasing a single copy helps alleviate the FOMO. If I can’t find a copy, like with Wheel of Fortune, the practice of searching at least calms me down some. Forcing myself to take the time to think through my actions is enough to help me avoid reckless purchasing at lofty prices.

Plan Ahead

This is perhaps the most valuable piece of advice I can provide: plan ahead. If there are Reserved List cards you desire but haven’t quite prioritized them, it’s time to change that approach. Reserved List cards are going to be targeted by speculators and investors over and over again. It’s inevitable. We can rue this truth or we can do something about it.

This doesn’t mean you should go out and preemptively buy out cards. I strongly discourage such activity. But if you have an active want list in your mind, I’d recommend bumping Reserved List cards (ones that haven’t already spiked) toward the top of your list. This helps you get ahead of the curve when it comes to these buyouts.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Abyss

What’s more, knowing in advance what cards you truly want will help you ignore the noise of these day-to-day buyouts. Wheel of Fortune spiked over the weekend. If that card wasn’t on your want list, then you can ignore this fact and focus instead on cards you do want. This not only helps you avoid FOMO purchases—it helps you keep calm and carry on when the buyouts happen. It’s much easier to ignore a market’s trend when you don’t have any interest in that particular market in the first place.

Wrapping It Up

Buyouts are going to be here for a while. I’m oversimplifying the economics, but I anticipate more liquidity entering the market in the coming weeks. If President Biden comes in and issues additional stimulus checks to the majority of the U.S., this will trickle into the collectibles market, including Magic. This will inflate prices further.

Now more than ever, it’s important to get in front of these buyouts and have a strategy for how you’ll handle them. If you let them happen to you, you’ll be destined to react with a “FOMO” sentiment. This ultimately leads to overpaying for cards in a fit of panic buying (I’ve been there, trust me).

To combat this, let’s enter this unprecedented time with a plan. First, we won’t panic when a card disappears. We’ll enable a calm demeanor by planning a want list in advance, recognizing when our motivations are strictly monetary and not gameplay related, and we’ll shop around for missed copies. These activities will help us remain disciplined about buyouts.

Lastly, I want to mention one more thing: this is a seller’s market. If you have desirable Reserved List cards, it’s going to be easier than ever before to move them for cash. Don’t be afraid to sell some of your position as prices climb. I wouldn’t recommend selling out completely, all at once, as you may miss some of the climb. But trimming back now and then is a good way to raise cash for other needs. Life, after all, isn’t all about Magic, as much as we like to think it is sometimes.

January 14, 2021 Emergency Pauper Banned and Restricted Announcement

Posted on January 14, 2021 by Joseph Davidson

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Thursday morning greeted Pauper players with a surprise Banned and Restricted Announcement posted on the mothership. Ian Duke's article stated,

Magic Online league data and tournament results for the Pauper format have shown that the recent addition of Fall from Favor is having an adverse effect on the metagame. Serving as both a creature removal tool and a card advantage engine, Fall from Favor pushes out aggressive creature decks and places too much emphasis on a player becoming and remaining the monarch before opposing decks can prepare counterplay.

Pauper players have been lamenting the effects of Monarch on the format for months now, and this ban is the first step in hopefully taking the format back to a more balanced place. It's nice to see Wizards taking steps to help the metagame of an eternal format, and hopefully, this is setting the precedent that they will take more action if the format continues to stagnate.