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Speculating on Aegar, the Freezing Flame

Posted on by David Schumann

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Warning: this article features spoilers for the upcoming Kaldheim set.

 

Kaldheim shifts away from previous iterations of Giants by shifting them from a Boros creature type to an Izzet creature type. There are both good sides and bad sides to this shift. Blue is a significantly stronger color in Commander than white so this change allows players to include stronger overall cards. The downside is that if you want to use Aegar, The Freezing Flame as your commander, you lose out on all the white or Boros giants from Magic's past. That being said, there is still a lot of room to build around this commander and I'm excited to dig into it.

There are a few key requirements for a good Aegar, the Freezing Flame deck.

  1. Your opponents must have creatures or planeswalkers to make the deck work.
  2. You need to be able to keep Aegar, the Freezing Flame on the battlefield consistently.
  3. You need to be able to do a lot of damage with either spells, Giants, or Wizards.

Point #3

We will work backward on our list and start with point 3 as it's the one with the most options. There are a lot of red mass damage spells in Magic's history, though few typically find a home in Commander decks. The reason is that most aren't really mana efficient with regards to how much damage they do and often in order to kill large creatures you have to pump a lot of damage into them to do so. However, there are two that are strong enough that they do find a home in many commander decks and would be auto includes in any Aegar deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Star of Extinction

Star of Extinction was a bulk mythic when it originally came out. It had a lot of flavor behind it, but seemed like overkill. This coincidentally is a term one of our QS Insiders used to describe Aegar, the Freezing Flame and Flame Spill's "excess damage" statement, and I hope that this term sticks.

Looking at the price graph, we can see there was a slight uptick in price after Aegar, the Freezing Flame was spoiled, as 20 damage will almost always be "excess" and tacking on a draw 6+ to Star of Extinction makes it extremely good in Commander. This card has only 2 printings, Ixalan and in the Mystery Boosters. I wouldn't consider the Mystery Boosters a truly mass reprint though given just how large the set was as a whole, so there is a lot of upside potential for this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blasphemous Act

Another card that started out its life as basically a bulk rare, Blasphemous Act is the number 2 most played red card on EDHRec. It's a mass board wipe that often costs 1 red mana. In a similar vein to the previously mentioned Star of Extinction, it's 13 damage is typically enough to kill everything and more often kill it by a lot. This was a $5+ card up until it was spoiled in Commander Legends and it has since dropped considerably.

Blasphemous Act has been reprinted repeatedly, in fact, two of its reprints occurred in 2020 as it is in Double Masters and Commander Legends. Unfortunately, I don't see a lot of potential for any of the regular printings as both those sets are expected to have additional print runs. However, the extended art option from Commander Legends is around $3 as of me writing this and there aren't likely to be more of those being printed anytime soon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flame Wave

Finally, we have a potential speculation target that hasn't been printed in the past 15 years. There are currently two printings of this card, Stronghold and 9th Edition both at uncommon. While there is some upside potential for older uncommons, the price ceiling is likely somewhat limited on this one as it only does 4 damage, so it's really only a mass removal spell against a board of small creatures controlled by one player. The benefits are that it doesn't hit your creatures so it won't kill Aegar, the Freezing Flame like the other two spells mentioned already. For this as a spec, I like the foil 9th Edition versions which I'm seeing in the sub $2 range, with very little supply.

Point #2

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hammer of Nazahn

Unfortunately, the buy-in on most of our options for point #2 is high as there aren't a lot of ways to give your creature indestructibility or protection from red in the Izzet color pie, so we typically have to rely on artifacts. The good news is that this card is good with a lot of commanders so that universality means that its value will likely remain. It is important to remember that we are expecting more Double Masters boxes to enter the supply once WotC's printers get caught up, so the price may drop a bit once that happens.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sword of War and Peace

Arguably one of the weakest of the Sword cycle, this once standard all-star has simply not proven itself as a staple in the Commander format. That being said, it's life gain ability plays very well with Aegar, the Freezing Flame's draw ability and protection from white helps with a lot of targeted removal.

Point #1

There was an error retrieving a chart for Forbidden Orchard

I'll be honest I was blown away at this card's current price. Admittedly, it hasn't really had a mass reprint and it seems to find a home in a fair number of Commander decks. The buy-in here is pretty high and the risk of a reprint seems relatively high as well, however, it's unlikely to be reprinted in Standard as most spirit tokens are now white, so it would seem out of place. I do think there is some potential upside as a spec for Aegar, the Freezing Flame, but this isn't one I'd go deep in.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Acorn Catapult

Acorn Catapult is another one whose price really surprised me. The ability is relatively weak to give your opponent a creature; however, the squirrel creature type is one with a devout following and its printings are limited to the original Commander product and The List. This is also one of those cards that can be used politically to gain favor at the table against specific players.

Conclusion

I hope everyone is excited about Kaldheim as I am. I really like the flavor of this set and there are a lot of new cards I can't wait to add to my Commander decks. I am also very excited to build my own Aegar, the Freezing Flame deck, using the cards I mentioned in this article as well as plenty of other mass damage spells like my beloved Inferno, which is the very first rare I ever opened way back in 1997.

Kaldheim: Spoilers and More!

Posted on by Joseph Davidson

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Kaldheim, Magic's 86th expansion, will be released on February 5, 2021. Set on a new, Norse mythology-inspired plane of the same name, Kaldheim contains 285 cards and will continue to include randomly inserted premium versions of all the cards. Players will be able to purchase regular Draft Boosters, Theme Boosters, Set Boosters, Collector Boosters, a Kaldheim Bundle, and two Commander decks.

Marketing-wise, Wizards is leaning into the "metal" stylings and iconographies often associated with fans of Norse mythology. Check out the collector booster and awesome WPN poster sporting some of their new metal stylings that were revealed in an article titled, "Welcome to the Face-Melting World of Kaldheim" posted on the mothership on December 14th.

Spoilers are slated to start Tuesday, December 15th, and are slated to follow this schedule. Check back with us frequently for the latest spoilers and our MTG Finance flavored commentary! We’ll be covering our favorite highlights from spoiler season – if you want to see the entirety of everything that has been spoiled you can check out Wizards’ updated card gallery here.

January 20th

Finally, we have reached the day of the full set reveal! There wasn't much more to see as far as rares go for the main Kaldheim set, but we do get to see a whole slew of new Commander cards! You can see the whole set over at Wizards' card gallery. What do you think about the set? Are you as excited as I am? What cards did I leave out of coverage that you think are going to be important? Let's take a look at two impactful blue cards from today's spoilers, and I'll leave the commander rares below them for you to look at and evaluate!

Bind the Monster is rad and I think it will definitely see lots of play in Pauper. It's not quite Swords to Plowshares, but this is excellent removal in its own right, and besides Pauper I think this will see play in Standard and Historic as well. Binding a Questing Beast will hurt, but it will only hurt you once as opposed to getting hit by it repeatedly. Icebreaker Kraken has the potential to be a fantastic top end for the snow control deck (plus, the art is fantastic.) As a primarily aggro player, I'm not looking forward to having to race against the clock that this thing will represent.

Below, you'll find a bunch of the spoiled rares from the upcoming Commander decks! I'm going to leave them without commentary because I am a very inexperienced Commander player and do not trust myself to evaluate them fairly. However, I can say that this latest batch of Commander action looks like a ton of fun and I'm looking forward to playing the precons against each other!

January 19th

Today we got some runes, some Commander cards, and some more cool rares and mythics!

With Resplendent Marshal we get our 3/3 flyer for three mana, but with a powerful upside. I think this warrior will see a lot of play in aggressive white decks, and I'm looking forward to testing it out myself. Orvar, the All-Form is a super interesting blue mythic. I'm not sure exactly where this changeling will fit, but I do know that being able to make copies of your permanents is a powerful ability - and I'm excited to see where this shapeshifter gets played!

Runeforge Champion was, unfortunately, one of the early leaks from this season, but it's been officially spoiled now! This dwarf warrior makes the runes spoiled today a whole lot better for constructed, and I wouldn't be surprised if an enterprising brewer out there comes up with a sweet rune-based list centered around this champion. King Narfi's Betrayal seems like a sweet addition to the UB control lists out there, and I imagine it fits in with any of the builds out there running Ashiok, Nightmare Muse.

We got a peek at some of the upcoming Commander cards today! Wolverine Riders is a fun addition to casual elf decks, guaranteeing you at least one life a turn as long as it stays on the table (and realistically plenty more in this style of deck), and Inspired Sphinx seems like a decent blue creature for many of the fan-favorite casual blue Commander decks out there.

The runes are here! Each of these runes has an on-color effect and allows you to enchant a permanent, though you will want to be enchanting either a creature or an equipment to get the full value out of them. These are all going to be limited all stars, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a few of them played in constructed as well. I know I want to enchant an Embercleave with Rune of Mortality at some point!

January 17th and 18th

Just a few more days before we get the whole set reveal! Let's take a look at some of the cool cards we got over the weekend.

Doomskar has the potential to be a better Wrath of God and Wrath of God seems like it would be darn good in standard right now. You have to take turn three off to really profit off of this board wipe, but I think the decks that run this are totally fine with that. There are going to be a lot of angels and clerics in standard come Kaldheim, and I think Righteous Valkyrie is primed to take advantage of that - this is going to be a three drop to keep your eyes on!

Graven Lore seems like a cool addition (heh, "cool", get it?) to the snow control deck that will likely be played after Kaldheim releases. That's a potential scry 5 in the late game, which could  be super useful if you're behind and need to stack your deck. Dream Devourer might just be a gimmick, but I could actually see this demon being a cool part of a foretell deck. The cynic in me makes me think it won't be that impactful, but I'm hoping I'm wrong!

Birgi, God of Storytelling, piques my interest something fierce. I think there's the potential for this being super powerful in the right shell, though I'm not certain what that shell is going to be. The ability to boast twice seems pretty powerful, and lategame having Harnfel, Horn of Bounty seems like a great way to filter through your deck and get some card advantage going.

Daaang, The Bloodsky Massacre is metal as all get out. If there's a berserker tribal deck that gets played this next season, I expect this saga to be in it. It makes a berserker, draws you cards, and ramps you - what more could you want? Similarly, The Raven's Warning seems like a pretty good addition to the UW flyers deck. You can gain life and get a bird, take a peek at your opponent's hand and draw a card, and grab something from your sideboard! I wouldn't be surprised to see this played.

I'm not sure how good Cosmos Elixir is going to be in a competitive setting, but it looks like a fun lifegain tool to play around with! Is Tyrite Sanctum too slow to be much good? I like the idea of making the Kaldheim gods indestructible like their Theros counterparts, but I'm not sure if the sanctum will cut it in standard.

January 16th

Arni Brokenbrow's flavor text, "I headbutted a troll. And won." made me laugh out loud, and he seems like an awesome addition to the standard mono-red list! On its own, a 3/3 with haste for three mana is fine, but the boast ability could make this berserker a key piece of the new aggressive red build. Immerstrum Predator is a vampire and a dragon! I think this will be an awesome addition to RB sacrifice strategies and expect to face down a ton of copies of this dragon on the Arena ladder.

I could see Blessing of Frost seeing play in a snow-based big green creature deck as a one or two of, possibly? If you can find a way to make sure that you're drawing cards for each creature you control this could be pretty powerful, but that seems like magical Christmas land. Doomskar Titan seems like a fun addition to the limited giant/berserker deck, but I'm not sure if we'll see it in standard. (Also, I was broken-hearted when I looked closer at the little green beings and realized they weren't goblins.)

Ascent of the Worthy continues the tradition of sagas having fantastic art, but I'm not sold on its constructed potential. In an aggressive BW deck, taking turn three off to play this seems like it would be a bit too slow, but perhaps there is a more control-oriented BW deck that would want to play this? Maja, Bretagard Protector seems like it has potential in an aggressive GW creature deck, but the five mana cost seems a bit steep.

January 15th

BIG GREEN MYTHIC TIME! Battle Mammoth fulfills a lot of checkboxes that make it good for a big green creature deck. It has a big body with trample, it draws you cards, and it has a foretell cost that could allow for playing it early. However, taking turn four off could be a big stumbling block for a lot of decks, so the foretell might not be the best way to play this. At first glance, I'm a fan of Glorious Protector. A flyer with flash and a 3/4 body seems like a decent card on it's own - and being able to temporarily exile creatures of your own at instant speed could definitely come in handy.

Is it just me, or does In Search of Greatness seem kind of bonkers in a big mana creature deck? I can see this going great in mono green creature lists, gruul lists, and probably also the UG lists that are high on permanents. I might be overvaluing it, but I think the ability to put out progressively larger permanents or at the very least scry is going to be very powerful in standard. The goblin lover in my heart hates Crippling Fear. You could see the conditional part of this boardwipe as a downside or an upside, depending on what kind of deck you stick it in, but I think the ability to leave your creatures on the battlefield will be an upside with most lists (unless you end up in a mirror match.)

Reidane, God of the Worthy seems like a super cool hate card to fight against both snow decks and big mana control decks. Flying and vigilance might make Reidane more than just a super good sideboard card as well. Valkmira, Protector's Shield also seems like a super fun hate card. Preventing one damage is fairly negligible, but I like the counter ability paired with it. I know I'm interested in playing both sides of this god in standard!

I love the art for Niko Defies Destiny, but I'm not sure how competitive it is going to be. Foretold decks might end up being a big deal, in which case this could see some play, but based on what we've seen so far I doubt this will see a ton of constructed play. Arni Slays the Troll looks like it will see a lot more play. Gruul decks already run some number of fight cards, and I think this saga's next chapters give it a pretty good upside.

January 14th

I think Cosima, God of the Voyage is a really neat design. I'm not much of a blue player, so I'm sure I'm missing the true potential of the card, but it seems sweet. Drawing cards and getting counters is always good, and The Omenkeel seems like it could be really advantageous in a vehicle heavy deck.

I have the same opinion of Gates of Istfell that I do the rest of the cycle - gorgeous art and decent limited potential. Now, Tundra Fumarole is a burn spell I can really get behind! It may be sorcery speed, but the fact that it can also help you ramp seems really good.

I love the art on both Skemfar Elderhall and Gnottvold Slumbermound, but like Axeguard Armory, I'm unsure of how good they'll actually be outside of limited.

Cyclone Summoner seems like it could be decent as the top end of a giant or wizard control deck, though I'm a little worried that it's seven mana cost might make it a bit prohibitive if standard speeds up even more with the release of the new set. I think Mystic Reflection seems super cool and like pretty decent pseudo-removal. As my friend Skinner pointed out, this is a pretty fun answer to Ugin, and the foretell cost means it can be waiting there for you to use just in time to stop the annoying planeswalker.

Again, we've already seen Aegar, the Freezing Flame and Narfi, Betrayer King, but I couldn't help but bring up these amazing showcase versions. I don't think I've seen a showcase version of a card from Kaldheim I didn't immediately love, and I know I'm definitely going to be trying to add plenty of these to my personal collection.

Runed Crown seems like a really interesting design, and depending on how good runes end up being this could end up being a decent piece of equipment. I think Axegard Armory's cost to actually search for an equipment or aura is too high to be very useful, but I could be wrong!

Skemfar Avenger seems like a sweet aggressive two drop for the GB elf deck. The art is super rad, it looks like it will be great in draft, and I'm sure it will find its way into an aggressive elf/berserker standard deck at some point during its time in standard. I really like Ascendant Spirit, though I'm not sure how much play it will actually see. The potential with the different levels is definitely there, and I'll be excited to see it on the battlefield if it catches on!

January 13th

It's Wednesday, my dudes! The spoilers keep coming, and we're getting closer and closer to having the full set revealed!

At first glance, Firja's Retribution looks like it is going to be incredibly powerful in Standard. It's powerful enough alone, but pair it with something like Doom Foretold and this is going to be even more of a force to be reckoned with. I'm seeing a lot of people on Twitter worrying about the power level of this card, and I'm not going to jump the gun on worrying, but this does seem like it is going to be one of the premier cards of the new standard.

I believe Burning-Rune Demon was already spoiled, but today was the first time I saw the English translation, and with the cool borderless version too! A 6/6 flyer for six mana seems fine, especially in draft, but the rest of the text makes this seem like a pretty fun card to play around with. Being able to tutor up a card is powerful, but I'm not sure about letting your opponent choose which one of the two you get.

Snow zombies! Narfi, Betrayer King seems like a super powerful uncommon to me. Narfi can be returned from the graveyard at instant speed, and I doubt you'll be paying the full mana cost to play this wizard. Pitch it to your bin with something like Rotting Regisaur or something similar, and then return it with your snow lands.

Aegar, the Freezing Flame is another powerful uncommon, and I imagine it will slot in nicely with the rest of the giant cards we've been seeing.

We get to see two new rare sagas today! Battle for Bretagard looks like some good old fashioned GW token fun. This will be right at home in all of the casual Trostani, Selesnya's Voice Commander decks out there, and I wouldn't be surprised if it saw some standard play as well.

With Battle of Frost and Fire, I'm becoming convinced there are going to be several different versions of the giant deck being played in Standard. This will fit right in with the Izzet control variant (maybe with another color?) I think. It does a lot of what control decks want to do - wipe the board (in non-giant matches), scry, and draw cards.

January 12th

Tuesday brings us the god of death, more giants, and some fantastic showcase arts!

We've already seen both of these cards, but I just had to take a second to mention how fantastic I think both of these showcase arts are. Look at how metal they are!

Stranheim Unleashed basically gives you a Serra Angel token! Using the foretell cost can net you several Serra Angel stand-ins, but that seems unlikely unless you're playing a deck that lets you get to the long game.

My friend Tom showed me Weathered Runestone, saying, "So, this is a slightly better Grafdigger's Cage that costs one more mana?" I think in a lot of cases I would prefer to be playing the cage since it hits the battlefield sooner, but I'm sure this runestone will be a super useful sideboard card in the right metas.

Jorn, God of Winter seems like a fantastic card in a snow-based deck if you can consistently attack with them. Being able to untap lands is always good, and Jorn lets you untap your lands and snow creatures to act as blockers. Kaldring, the Rimestaff seems like more of a late-game component for a snow deck, but nonetheless, I can imagine it being powerful in the right build.

We got two giant wizards today! I can see the potential for Basalt Ravager to fit into the giant tribal deck we've seen developing, or even just as a powerful finisher in any tribal deck that has access to red. Frostpyre Arcanist will likely almost always cost one less in the decks it slots into, and is an interesting way to tutor for instants and sorceries.

I'm having a hard time evaluating Egon, God of Death. A 6/6 for three mana is nothing to scoff at, but with the need to exile two cards from your graveyard without losing it, the likelihood of you playing it as early as you would want to seems slim. If you pair Egon with their backside, Throne of Death, you'll have a lot more cards in your graveyard to work with. Maybe Egon will be in a stand out self mill style deck?

January 11th

The spoilers keep coming, and today we got a look at a new god, a red counterspell, and tons of gorgeous showcase versions of new and previously spoiled cards!

I think Harald, King of Skemfar is a really cool addition to the elf tribal strategy we're starting to see develop. He's a decent body and allows you to dig for more creatures or Tyvar Kell which seems like things the deck will want to be doing. Harald Unites the Elves does similar things in saga form, and it might actually end up being better than Harald the creature? Do you think they'll be played in the same deck? Either way, I dig the flavor on these and look forward to seeing them played.

Holy moly, as someone who has been piloting a ton of Doom Foretold decks in Standard recently, I am incredibly hyped to try out Tergrid, God of Fright in that style of deck. There are a ton of available sacrifice effects to experiment with, and my gut feeling says this is going to be one powerful god. Tergrid's Lantern also seems like a decent way to make your opponent sacrifice things and paired with Tergrid will be a force to be reckoned with!

Red gets a counterspell, and it is certainly befitting of its namesake! Tibalt's Trickery is kind of goofy, and definitely has a bit of a downside, but it looks like good silly fun and might actually prove to be pretty decent in the right deck. Reflections of Littjara seems like it could be super powerful in the right creature deck (Muxus, Goblin Grandee jank maybe?) and I'm excited to see what people come up with this one!

Today we got to see Kaldheim's version of Thor - Toralf, God of Fury and Toralf's Hammer! Toralf looks like a ton of fun to play with, and I'm sure there will be red burn decks created just to take advantage of his ability to deal excess damage to other permanents. I'm less sold on his hammer though. It's a super cool design, and I'm sure it will see some good standard use, but it's not my favorite new equipment by any means.

January 9th & 10th

Saturday and Sunday brought us some more awesome looking Kaldheim action!

I was super hyped on Eradicator Valkyrie when I first saw it, but then I saw someone on Twitter mention that it was basically a worse Rankle, Master of Pranks and now I'm not so sure how much I like it. I think the Valkyrie being a 4/3 is a big improvement, and sometimes lifelink matters more than Rankle's haste. I know I'll play the Valkyrie for sure - but only time will tell if I end up liking this Angel Berserker more than our old rogue friend Rankle.

Draugr Necromancer is giving me Skyrim flashbacks and I love it! This seems like a super fun card. I love the idea of stealing my opponent's creatures after they die, and the snow mana tie-in makes this even more appealing to me.

There was a whole slew of commons and uncommons spoiled this weekend, but I wanted to highlight these two legendary creatures that caught my eye. Vega, the Watcher seems like a super fun draw engine in UW and I imagine that it will see plenty of Standard, Historic, and possibly even the paper non-rotating formats. I could see Firja, Judge of Valor seeing play in the BW control list I imagine we'll be seeing in Kaldheim standard, and this angel seems like it will be right at home in casual EDH Angel tribal lists. Flying, lifelink, draws cards, and allows you to fill your graveyard - these are all great abilities for a creature to have!

Maskwood Nexus is blowing up Twitter right now with a  lot of users speculating on its combo potential. I think this is a card we'll see a lot of in the early access Arena event for the set and one many players will be building with in the early Kaldheim standard. Faceless Haven is a snow man land! I love the art, but I'm not sure how useful this card will actually be competitively. I imagine that it will find a spot as a one or two of in Historic colorless control style decks, but I'm unsure where else it fits right now.

I'm super excited about Quakebringer being added to the Giant tribal cards we've been seeing. This giant seems super powerful already at five mana, and if you can use Foretell it gets even better - this is a card I'll definitely be playing with on the Arena ladder.

Vehicles are back with Esika's Chariot! Based on Freya's chariot of myth, this cat powered vehicle seems like a powerful addition to Standard green decks (with adorable art to boot!) The crew cost is a little high, but I don't think many of the aggressive green decks we'll be seeing will have a problem paying for it.

January 8th

Kaldheim spoilers continued their awesome, metal fury today! We're starting to get a much better idea of what the set is going to look like, and in my opinion, it's shaping up to be a fantastic, flavorful hit.

I love the flavor of Esika, God of the Tree and The Prismatic Bridge! The nod to the Rainbow Bridge of myth is fantastic for Norse mythology fans, and I can definitely see this card being a powerful addition to the Temur Ramp [card]Genesis Ultimatum[/cards] decks that are currently popular in Standard.

I'd be lying to you if I said I didn't roll my eyes a little when Koma, Cosmos Serpent was spoiled. Uro and Oko have left a bad taste in many players' mouths when it comes to powerful UG creatures, and this serpent seems like it is aiming to add its name to the list. Cosmos Charger seems like it could be pretty powerful in a Foretell based deck and I'm excited to see if one develops and makes good use of this new horse spirit.

I think Kolvori, God of Kinship and The Ringheart Crest are an interesting design. I'm sure with all of the gods floating around there will be a deck that makes good use of the legendary creature requirement to buff Kolvori, and the crest seems like a decent mana rock.

Cassius Marsh spoiled The World Tree on Twitter today - and the internet immediately started complaining about how the world tree isn't a legendary land (and honestly, I'm a little confused about it too from a Vorthos perspective.) This seems like a powerful land in the ramp strategies we have available to us right now, and I'm sure you'll hear me complaining about it's prevalence in a future podcast episode.

We also got a look at Tyvar Kell, which seems like a huge hit for elf tribal fans. This seems like a pretty fantastic planeswalker for elf tribal EDH, and if we get enough elves in this set there's no way we won't see an elf tribal deck featuring Tyvar. I'm excited to give him a shot!

We got to see two new Sagas today! Forging the Tyrite Sword seems a little underwhelming, but outside of being decent in draft I'm sure it will find a place in some sort of equipment deck. I'm debating how good The Trickster-God's Heist actually is in constructed, but it looks like a hilarious flavor win to me. This is going to lead to a ton of goofy, exciting games against UB and I'm pumped for the fun!

Calamity Bearer was, unfortunately, one of the early leaks, but Jess Estephan's official pie-filled preview hit Twitter this morning (the berry pie she made to tie in with the card looks amazing, by the way.) Calamity Bearer looks like another decent piece of the giant tribal deck we're anticipating and I think it has potential to be a hit in Kaldheim standard.

The band In Hearts Wake previewed Goldspan Dragon on Twitter this morning as well, and I think there's a good chance it will fit in with a future big red styled standard deck, possibly going hand in hand with Magda, Brazen Outlaw.

January 7th

Spoilers kicked off with a bang today! Jimmy Wong was joined by metal band Immersturm to ham it up and show us some awesome cards on the Magic Twitch channel and I'm more hyped than ever for the set.

Okay, so one of the big leaks that was floating around the internet was also confirmed today. I didn't believe it could be true (all right Casey - you win this one), but Vorinclex is back in Vorinclex, Monstrous Raider. We still don't know how or why the Praetor is devouring people on Kaldheim, but this is sure to be a sought after card. There are three versions of the art, one being in actual Phyrexian, it has trample and haste, and buffs your counters while hampering your opponent's counters. At first glance, I think this has a lot of action with sagas in standard, but I'm sure I'm only scratching the surface at this Phyrexian's potential.

TALK ABOUT METAL! Varragoth, Bloodsky Sire is our first look at the boast mechanic (and also has one of the gnarliest showcase arts we've seen yet) and at first glance, I think this card will see a good amount of play. You can only activate the boast once per turn, and only if the creature attacked, but at least in this case I imagine you'll be fine attacking with your creature because it's a 2/3 with deathtouch. Being able to tutor a card to the top of your deck is awesome (maybe less awesome with all the mill in standard right now) and I think this is one of the big flashy black cards people will be doing a lot of experimenting with early on with Kaldheim's release.

Apparently, Kaldheim is composed of ten realms, with each realm being populated by a particular creature type, and Old-Growth Troll is our first glimpse at Kaldheim trolls! This troll seems like a great addition to mono-green strategies and I'm sure will see standard play. Sigrid, God-Favored seems like it will fit in great with the mono-white strategies we've been seeing in standard, especially with protection from God creatures, Flash, and being able to exile a creature. This is the kind of value that white, taxes-ish strategies will be looking for in Standard for sure, though I'm not sure Sigrid will see much eternal play. I guess it depends on how good the gods are!

Snow duals and snow instants! People have speculated about these coming into existence someday - and that day is now! Alpine Meadow is the RW version of this cycle (each pairing is in the set but I didn't think we needed to have them all here.) I'm not entirely sure how I feel about these yet other than I think they're cool (heh, get it?) and will probably see some pauper play. Frost Bite however, is guaranteed to see pauper play, and maybe in other formats too! Snow basics are also coming to Kaldheim, as was expected.

Binding the Old Gods is another new saga that I think will actually see a good amount of play. The removal might be sorcery speed, which can be a downside, but it also helps you ramp with the second chapter and then finishes with deathtouch. I think a lot of the Golgari control style decks we've been seeing in standard could slot this in even if nothing else synergistic comes out in the set, but I'm sure we'll see more cards that play well with it down the line. Elvish Warmaster seems like a pretty typical elf lord. I doubt this elf warrior will see much play in eternal formats, but I could see it being good in standard.

We also got another one of the modal gods today! Alrund, God of the Cosmos (this set's nod to Odin from Norse mythology) may be a 1/1, but he gets +1/+1 for each card in your hand and each foretold card you own in exile, which paired with his effect could make for a pretty large and in charge god. I really love his other side, Hakka, Whispering Raven, which is a flyer that lets you scry and also returns to your hand so you can play Alrund later! I think this one will see a lot of play.

We got to see the full Niko Aris planeswalker card today, which seems like a great addition to standard control lists. This is our first look at shard tokens, which will be decent card draw advantage (and will be interesting with enchantment matters cards), and all of Niko's abilities seem like they do things that you want to be doing as a control player. Returning your own creatures will be pretty great with the modal cards we're getting this set, doing damage is always good, and shard tokens seem like a decent thing to be making when the game slows down! We also got to see Alrund's Epiphany today, which shows off the Foretell mechanic (and seems like a huge headache for a mono-red player like myself.) Players will always find ways to abuse taking extra turns - I think this is a card to keep an eye on.

Tibalt is back, baby! I think this is such a cool way to bring the fan-favorite planeswalker back. He's impersonating a god from Kaldheim known as Valki, God of Lies - which has an interesting mechanic that lets you copy creatures that you exiled from your opponent's hand, but the backside of the card is a fairly expensive Tibalt, Cosmic Impostor. Coming in with the emblem makes him seem pretty powerful, even though seven mana can be rather steep. My first impression of this card is that it is going to be a powerful addition to standard Rakdos control style builds, and I'm sure he'll be seeing play.

January 6th

We weren't expecting any more official spoilers until tomorrow, but Amy the Amazonian got to share a preview early on Twitter today!

Invasion of the Giants is a new saga (with amazing art, which seems typical of sagas), this time for Izzet players. This seems pretty cool with the apparent giant tribal we'll be getting and seems like it will at least play well with all-star Bonecrusher Giant! I for one am incredibly excited about the idea of giant tribal and can't wait to see how this archetype develops.

December 24th

We've been on the edge of our seats since the 17th waiting for more spoilers (not counting the potential weird leaks floating around) and today brings something super flavorful!

Look, a standard-legal squirrel! Toski, Bearer of Secrets is obviously based on Ratatoskr from Norse mythology, which I think is a super cool reference. The jury is still out on how competitive this card will end up being, but I think we can all agree that it is an incredible flavor win. I think it being uncounterable and also indestructible is pretty relevant - but being a 1/1 for four mana doesn't' seem super impactful in today's standard meta.

December 17th

During the Weekly MTG: Metal Week Recap today, we got a glimpse at two new legendary creatures from the new Kaldheim Commander decks! Both Lathril, Blade of the Elves and Ranar the Ever-Watchful look like a ton of fun to play with and I'm excited to see what the rest of the pre-cons look like!

It looks like someone let a wolf out of the bag! Sarulf, Realm Eater is another super cool flavor win for Kaldheim. At first glance, a 3/3 for three mana doesn't seem great, as the Spikes of Reddit are already yelling about, but I could see the +1/+1 counter interactions being useful in the right shell, and being able to exile multiple permanents at once is something that has been proven to be incredibly useful this Standard season.

December 16th

We're onto Day 2 of a very Metal week of spoilers!

Metal legends Amon Amarth spoiled a really rad Kaldheim card today in Halvar, God of Battle and flip side Sword of the Realms. Halvar is a fantastic creature for an equipment matters style aggressive deck. I could see him working well alongside Maul of the Skyclaves, Archon of Emeria, and my favorite Zendikar Rising card Skyclave Apparition.

Sword of the Realms is a sword that any brave creature would be honored to wield in battle, with the awesome-for-aggro upside of returning the equipped creature to its owner's hand.

Continuing the previews from metal bands, Oceans of Slumber previewed the newest Kaya planeswalker card, Kaya the Inexorable! Kaya's mana cost seems a bit high for my tastes, but the minus three is an awesome ability that fits with Kaya's flavor really well, and I think the plus one ability will probably be useful in several different shells come the new standard season.

Changelings in the house, baby! Realmwalker looks like a fantastic addition to all kinds of tribal strategies and being able to look at the top card of your library and cast it if it's a creature of the chosen type is an awesome ability I'm excited to play with. This card was spoiled today by the band Rhapsody of Fire.

Heavy metal band Smoulder revealed this sweet new aggressive red dwarf today. Magda, Brazen Outlaw looks like a super fun indicator that we might be able to play an aggressive dwarf tribal deck in the upcoming standard season! Being able to buff your dwarves, create treasures, and also search up artifacts or dragons seems super impressive for this new two-drop.

Wizards also dropped an article today going over the additional set and theme booster cards that will be legal in any format Kaldheim is legal in. There's a neat assortment of super flavorful cards listed in the article (I'll share the rares below) and we also learn that the names for the upcoming Kaldheim commander decks are Canopy Tactician, Elderfang Ritualist, Elven Ambush, and Surtland Elementalist.

I also included Rampage of the Valkyries here because the art is incredible. At first glance, none of these cards seem super relevant for competitive play, but I think Wizards did a great job of including fun, flavorful cards in their set and theme booster product for the newer players that gravitate towards them.

December 15th

Today is kicking off with some reveals from popular Metal bands. Mastodon kicked off spoiler season with previews of the new Kaldheim pathways:

We found out from Brazil-based metal band Angra's preview that sagas are coming back, with Showdown of the Skalds:

This seems like a pretty rad re-introduction to Sagas, and one that will fit well with aggressive creature-based strategies. Speaking creatures:

Pyre of Heroes is a neat artifact that supports creature strategies. I could see this being useful in a tribal type deck or possibly an updated standard Winota list.

 

No Middle Ground: Kaldheim Spoiler Week 2

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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It's an odd set where there doesn't appear to be anything amiss. As I'm writing this sentence, there is nothing that even vaguely resembles anything dangerous. Which is not a bad thing. It's just weird, given that we've had the companions, Astrolabe, Uro, Oko, and Hogaak in the past two years busting everything. And that's not even counting shakeups from cards like the MDFC's. A non-Core expansion being fairly meh for Modern is a breath of fresh air. Hopefully, that means Wizards has corrected itself.

Not a lot has changed since last week. There are a number of interesting cards that might find the right niche and see Modern play. And then there are the cards I'm focusing on today, which are either busted in half or unplayable. I don't see a middle ground. The problem is that they're either combo pieces or build-around cards, and those are always extremely hit or miss. As such, I'll be laying out the opportunities and problems for each. However, first I need to update something from last week.

'Snow More To See Here

I previously mentioned that while snow was back, it didn't really mean anything. There was no payoff to having snow lands besides Ice-Fang Coatl, but there was still no harm to playing snow basics. And that continues to be the case. There have been a number of cards that care about having three or more snow permanents spoiled, but none of them are Modern playable. Double whammy of too expensive and too small an effect. There are also a few cards that benefit snow permanents, in particular Jorn, God of Winter. Problem is that Jorn is slow; Modern can already mass-untap permanents, and those effects don't see play. Which makes snow seem like a bust.

At least, the Kaldheim snow permanents seem a bust. One preexisting snow permanent stands to benefit from Kaldheim: Scrying Sheets. For years, Sheets's only purpose was to draw more Snow-Covered Mountains for fringe Skred Red decks. Even at the height of snow's saturation pre-Astrolabe ban, Sheets wasn't seeing play because it missed most of the time. However, that might be changing thanks to Kaldheim adding snow instants and sorceries. There aren't many, and most of them aren't remotely playable, but some are close enough that turning Sheets from... well, Sheets, into a worse Library of Alexandria that may in fact be playable, is becoming a possibility.

Tundra Fumarole

The only snow spell that I'm absolutely certain will see play is Tundra Fumarole. This is not because it is uniquely good for Modern, although it being (technically) a free spell is nothing to sneeze at. No, I know that I will see it because (assuming he comes back when paper comes back) there was a Skred Red Prison player at my LGS and I always played him at FNM. No other tournaments, just FNM. And he will, absolutely will, be playing Fumarole so he can kill something and drop Ensnaring Bridge or Karn, the Great Creator in the same turn. He will do so several times a match because that was just how those matches went. I can already feel my blood boiling with frustration and barely restrained rage.

However, Fumarole might be decent for Red Prison decks just in general, rather than just to torment me. It kills a decent chunk of Modern-playable creatures and planeswalkers without help, and planeswalkers in particular can be a problem for Skred decks. Prison decks also tend to be clunky thanks to relying on 4+ mana planeswalkers and Stormbreath Dragon to do all the heavy lifting, and a free-ish kill spell might act as much-needed wheel grease. For a deck that can't really double-spell under normal circumstances, Fumarole may be a huge boost. It also dodges Chalice of the Void, which is common to those decks. And again, at the bare minimum, Skred decks run Sheets already and Fumarole increases the snow density. I'm interested to see if I'm the only one to have Fumarole pointed at my stuff for that reason.

Graven Lore

Under normal circumstances, a five-mana instant draw spell would not be a consideration. Fact or Fiction is cheaper and in many ways better and sees very little play these days. Which would normally disqualify Graven Lore. However, it has enough upside that it could make the cut. It's a snow card and can be found with Sheets, which granted isn't a huge boost to playability. However, it also synergizes with Sheets. Lore will scry a max of five cards in a snow deck, meaning it can be used to draw the three cards you want/need on the opponent's end step and then set up a Sheets activation. Which is a bit niche but a huge card advantage swing.

However, even without Sheets, Lore is potentially a powerful top-end card. It's scry first then draw, which is extremely powerful (see also: Preordain vs Serum Visions). This suggests that Lore can be used to close the door for a control deck. Either what they need is in the top five cards or they dig eight cards deep, which makes it statistically likely that a key spell is actually found. The issue in Modern is that Lore is competing with Teferi, Hero of Dominaria for that slot, and it isn't easy to beat out a planeswalker. Teferi does more and will keep accruing value for several turns. However, not every control deck has access to white, and many lean heavily on Jace, the Mind Sculptor. In that context, Lore could fulfil the same role of Jace support that Teferi does.

Snow Moon

I'd planned to end it there, but as I was typing the thought occurred: Would Fumarole and Lore see play together? A lot of their playability is being snow and synergizing with Sheets coupled with benefits for slower decks. And there exists a slower UR deck that could use some help. Blue Moon has been hanging around for years and plays primarily basic lands. Is there benefit to going for a hard snow basic manabase with Sheets as a payoff? Previous incarnations of Blue Moon were tempo decks, and they've largely fallen out of Modern. Too low-power, too reliant on counterspells. Perhaps going deeper on Blood Moon and snow would invigorate the archetype. At very least, the removal improves thanks to Skred.

Either Busted or Worthless

There's a minor theme of really swingy combo pieces in Kaldheim. It's not like they're tied to the set themes or mechanics, and to my knowledge, neither Rosewater or Wizards has acknowledged it, but there are a higher than normal number of cards that are either busted combo pieces or bulk rares. It seems like they wanted to print combo pieces for Commander and really went out of their way to limit their potential in constructed. And it worked; the power of these cards will be very hard to access consistently.

These types of cards are very hard to evaluate because it all comes down to the reliability of the shell and the opportunity costs in said deck. There's always potential in these cards, but realizing it is very hard. Or impossible if the opponent interacts at all. So take it under advisement: The three cards I'm going to discuss here might be worthless, but they could be absurd. There's not much middle ground, and I'll be evaluating them as such.

In Search of Greatness

First up, I'm certain that In Search of Greatness will see in play in Modern. Again, it's because I know a very specific player will play it against me assuming I ever see him again. He's tried to make Pioneer-style Green Devotion work in Modern, and I'm certain that he'd try Greatness there, because I see it as fitting that deck: ifyou open with a Leyline (preferably Leyline of Abundance, but any will do) and have Greatness on turn 2, turn three Nissa, Who Shakes the World comes down and the ramp goes quickly out of control. Which he would certainly use for a Genesis Wave but a more sane person would probably just Ugin, the Spirit Dragon. Either way, it'd be very hard for anyone to come back from that start.

That is assuming that everything comes together in the right order. Such a start is not really as Magical Christmasland as one would imagine (I've seen those devotion decks do very nutty things surprisingly often). However, is Greatness an effect that such a deck needs? It's surprisingly easy to ramp into turn three Nissa as is, though doing so precludes also dropping Ugin the same turn. However, all of this is assuming that Greatness would actually ramp the deck. Greatness doesn't count itself, so there's no playing Greatness in a vacuum and getting a three drop. The only way to jump the curve is to have additional permanents besides Greatness, and the opponent will probably have something to say about that. And without permanents in hand at the start of upkeep that qualify, all Greatness does is scry 1. Which isn't nothing, but it's not good enough.

There are so many qualifiers about Greatness being good, that the name becomes very appropriate. There's huge potential when everything goes right, but there are a ton of opportunities for it all to go wrong. And when it isn't just being absurd, it's pretty terrible. It's not reliably a ramp spell, it's something else, and I feel like treating it as ramp won't pan out.

However, maybe it should be seen in a different light. A lot of Greatness's problems (bad without the right spells in hand at the right time, needs a lot of setup) can also be said of Show and Tell, and that's been a Legacy Staple for years. That deck has to cantrip a lot to position itself to make Show good, similar to the effort and investment necessary to make Greatness work. I have no idea how to set it up nor can I figure out it would ever be better than existing options for cheating in big things. But it does seem like this is the way to go.

Pyre of Heroes

Pyre of Heroes was the first non-land card I saw spoiled from Kaldheim. And it looked promising. For half the cost to cast but twice the cost to activate it was a tribal Birthing Pod. And immediately I saw a ton of speculation to exactly that effect. And then nothing. I haven't seen chatter or updates on any brews in over a month. I'm not sure if brewers went silent to hide their tech, everyone gave up, or something else. I don't know. However, I do know why the straightforward approaches fell off.

Why bother with Pyre in a tribal deck? It's a tutor that is neutral on both card advantage and board position. All it does is find a different card up the chain. Humans wouldn't bother. Turning Noble Hierarch into Meddling Mage against a combo deck is decent, but that's as good as it gets. Goblins doesn't need Pyre, they have Goblin Matron. Elementals has Flamekin Harbinger and Risen Reef to burn through their deck. Playing Pyre as a tribal tutor is unnecessary.

However, what about playing it as Pod was in either value or combo form? Combo Pod was capable of turn-three wins, and Value Pod is why the card is banned. And there is potential in either approach. However, the problem is that tribal component. The old Pod chains don't work, and the solution (as far as I could find, anyway) isn't very good. The only way to bridge the gaps in either the value or combo chains is to use changelings. This is a problem because on their own, they're not very good. Which is a huge problem for the value chain and prevents the combo chain from going off in one turn. The extra mana is less prohibitive than I thought, but still a problem too.

If someone figures out how to make the chain work fluidly, there's real promise here. Otherwise, Pyre will join Prime Speaker Vannifar on the pyre of false Pods.

Tibalt's Trickery

And finally, we have the combo piece that Wizards took inordinate lengths to keep as inconsistent and weak as possible. What Tibalt's Trickery's wall of text actually means is that it's a Polymorph for spells, but it's hard to set up. And definitely isn't a break, and it's weird that you think it as, which is why Rosewater seems rather worried about its implications. Trickery counters a spell, mills between 1-3 cards, and then casts the next spell with a different name in the target's library. Any spell. Which could be a better one than was countered, so it will never be used defensively without massive amounts of help. At which point, why not run a normal counterspell?

However, its potential as a Polymorph effect is tantalizing. And it's been suggested, that it can be exploited. The level 0 suggestion is a deck of lands, Trickery, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, and Shadowborn Apostle. Which is the best way to drop a turn 3 Emrakul I've heard in a while. However, such a deck could only guarentee a 4/7 chance to hit Emrakul, and would 100% lose to Meddling Mage. So I've seen others working on diversifying the threats, which makes the deck have a very Hypergenesis feel. Much like a theoretical Modern Hypergenesis deck, such a Trickery deck would be absurd when it comes together, but easily disrupted and prone to failure. I'd keep my eye on Trickery, but not really worry.

Silent as Snow

It looks like we escaped Kaldheim without another Uro. Or even Mystic Sanctuary. All that's left to do is start working on these cards and find out how well the crystal ball's working.

Kaldheim Made Giant Tribal Commander Decks A Thing

Posted on by Adam Yurchick

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The spoiling of Dwarves returning as a tribal theme in Kaldheim brought attention and big price spikes to some existing Dwarves and enablers, like Dwarven Bloodboiler and Dwarven Recruiter. The reveal of a Giants theme isn’t quite the same surprise, as Giants have seen more significant support in recent years compared to Dwarves being brought back from the dead, but it’s sure to increase demand for past Giants and drive up prices, so there may be some opportunities.

The Giants of Kaldheim

The biggest surprise from Kaldheim is that the Giant tribe has expanded to blue, specifically Izzet, where in the past its red base has been paired with white. Sagas Invasion of the Giants and Battle of Frost and Fire are two exciting new Izzet-color Giant-themed cards driving buzz for the tribe. Red and blue have each brought a few exciting Giant cards of their own -  in total Kaldheim brings around 10 quality cards for a Giant Commander deck.

Battle of Frost and Fire · Kaldheim (KHM) #204 · Scryfall Magic: The Gathering Search

Calamity Bearer · Kaldheim (KHM) #125 · Scryfall Magic: The Gathering Search

Surtland Flinger · Kaldheim (KHM) #377 · Scryfall Magic: The Gathering Search

The printing of Legendary Giant Aegar, the Freezing Flame brings a perfect new build-around Commander for the tribe. There already happens to be a giant Commander available in Ruhan of the Fomori, which opens up a full three-color Jeskai deck that has all of the best cards the Giant tribe has to offer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruhan of the Fomori

An obscure card with just one printing almost ten years ago, and available for around $4, Ruhan of the Fomori seems like a great spec in anticipation of Kaldheim driving new Giant Commander decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Giant Harbinger

A sure inclusion in any Giant Commander deck will be Giant Harbinger, which has one printing over 13 years ago but is still only worth about a quarter. There are far fewer of these floating around than more recent cards, and a sudden spike of demand will start drying up supplies and drive the price higher.

There’s a bunch of older giants that don’t really see much play, so a spike in demand from nothing to something could start really sending prices up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Protector of the Crown

One good-looking Giant for a spec is Protector of the Crown, which brings the powerful Monarch effect along with a very Giant-esque ability. Its price has actually already tripled since December, up to $2.30 from around $0.75, and the trajectory shows now signs of turning down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Palisade Giant

Palisade Giant brings its own version of the same damage-soaking effect, and with a single printing feels like a bargain at $0.30.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Countryside Crusher

Countryside Crusher has always been an underrated and underplayed card for its ability to filter lands away while growing into a big threat. It is surely one of the more competitive Giants ever printed, and at a buck feels like a solid price as Giants evolve into a real tribe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jötun Owl Keeper

An obscure Giant that I have my eye on is Jotun Owl Keeper, which like Countryside Crusher is unique for being a relatively low-cost card in a tribe full of creatures costing 6 or more mana. It’s a solid card that generates value, and even includes blue in its cumulative upkeep cost, so seems to be a great fit. As an Uncommon from Coldsnap, a set notorious for low supply and high prices, feels cheap at a quarter.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thryx, the Sudden Storm

It should also be noted that Theros Beyond Death brought Thryx, the Sudden Storm, which quietly belied that blue Giants were coming as a tribe, where it acts as a perfect support card. As a recent card I’m not sure this can really spike huge anytime soon, but sitting at $0.50 over the past year, must be underpriced given recent developments with the tribe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Realm-Cloaked Giant

Realm-Cloaked Giant as a sweeper for non-Giant creatures is a perfect fit into a Giant tribal deck. This Giant aspect wasn’t too interesting when it was printed in Throne of Eldraine, but it now makes sense and looks like a solid pickup as a $1 mythic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunrise Sovereign
There was an error retrieving a chart for Borderland Behemoth

At around $0.50 each, Giant lord Sunrise Sovereign and synergizer Borderland Behemoth both have room to grow, but be aware they've each seen multiple printings.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cunning Giant

Giants aren’t a heavily supported tribe nor one that is likely to make a particularly competitive deck at this point; it’s going to be mostly for the fun and flavor. For that reason, I’m intrigued by some of the older and coolest Giants that would seem to be easy inclusions in a Giant tribal deck, like Cunning Giant from Portal and Frost Giant from Legends.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Two-Headed Giant Of Foriys

The highest-ticket Giant and one way to try to cash in on the tribe is Magic’s original Giant, Two-Headed Giant of Foriys. A relatively iconic card as a powerhouse from Magic’s early days, and one that demands a premium for this fact, its value surely benefits from Giants gaining support as a bonafide tribal strategy. Buying Alpha, Beta, or Unlimited copies could pay off as players start seeking them for decks or their collections, especially as this recent Giant support makes it even more likely we’ll see it supported again in the future.

Trust the Process

While Giants may or may not really pop, this is the sort of process worth going through when analyzing a new set for its potential impact on Commander deckbuilding and in turn the market, which at this point has Commander as its #1 factor to consider over any other format. You could go through this same process with the Berserker tribe supported in Kaldheim, which has driven up the price of Lovisa Coldeyes and could impact more down the line. Every set has its own theme and potential Commanders, and each of them has the potential to spike demand for existing cards.

Discipline for a New Wave of Buyouts

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Don’t panic.

It’s a phrase on the cover of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy and it seems particularly relevant given last week’s activity in Magic’s secondary market. The movement reached beyond the MTG finance community, and far more influential members of the community have started observing some gravity-defying trends.

Believe it or not, I did not hack Saffron’s account to tweet this, even though I’m envious that he shared this comparison before I could.

What does this all mean? Is Magic ruined forever because of these sudden, drastic price moves?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wheel Of Fortune

This week I’ll share my suggestions on how to approach this dynamic seller’s market.

Tip 1: Don’t Panic

I begin my article with this mantra because it is the most important reminder when navigating an overheated market. It’s so easy to see Wheel of Fortune sell out and panic buy any copy you can find on the internet. I know this because of my own firsthand experiences—yesterday when a friend pointed out the card’s disappearance, I searched everywhere I knew of for a remaining copy. (No luck, by the way).

In the past, I’ve written about the fear of missing out, “FOMO” for short, and how it can lead us to poor purchasing decisions. When we see a card is suddenly in much more demand, our psychology drives us to desire the card even more. We also start to project into the future, thinking about our inability to afford the card and our sudden, desperate need to have a copy “just in case.” These feelings can be powerful.

But we must not give in to the temptation. It’s easy to jump to the conclusion that Wheel of Fortune will now and forever be a $2000 card based on TCGplayer trends. It’s important to remember that a bought out card almost never retains its full price growth—there’s always a retracement. It has already started in the case of Wheel of Fortune. I’m seeing HP copies for just under $300 and LP for $450.

When I checked last night, there were three listings for this card. Now there are twenty-one. There will be more by the end of today. Price spikes always bring loose copies out of the woodwork, and the new competition helps drive the price back down again.

Will it make a round trip back to its pre-buyout price? No. That ship has in fact sailed. But purchasing a copy in reaction to the buyout is a recipe to overpay and lose money. It’s hard to think of this when in the moment, so that’s why my first recommendation is “don’t panic.”

Ask Yourself: Is This About Money or Gameplay?

After allaying your fears that you’ll never be able to own a copy of the card again, the next thing I’d ask is your motivation for suddenly desiring the card.

Not long ago, speculators made a move on Revised Vesuvan Doppelganger.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vesuvan Doppelganger

The card is on the Reserved List, and is one of the icons from my childhood. I remember my LGS had a copy of the card listed for $25 back in the late 1990’s. Every time I visited, I would browse through their disorganized singles binder and would come across this card and marvel at its beauty. But for a 14-year-old, $25 was steep; that amount of money could purchase 8 booster packs, for example!

Then one day the dream became reality—the LGS put all their singles on a 50% off sale. With the help of a parent, I was finally able to acquire the Vesuvan Doppelganger. I cherished that card as my “most valuable” and “most powerful” card for quite some time.

When I saw that people were buying out this childhood favorite, my emotions started kicking in. Should I go out and buy a bunch before it was too late? It would be a shame for these to be triple the price simply because Rudy of Alpha Investments made a video about Revised cards. Luckily, before I could make any regretful decisions, I took a step back.

Why was I suddenly interested in Revised Vesuvan Doppelganger? I already own a single copy; it resides in my mono blue Commander deck. Any time I want to relive that moment of my childhood, I can take that copy out and admire it. Each incremental copy I could purchase would not really add to my nostalgia more than the first did.

I realized my motivation wasn’t out of nostalgia. Nor was the copy so important to me from a gameplay perspective. I was content to own one copy for over a decade; why at that moment was I unhappy not owning more? My motivation was purely financial. I came to the realization that I saw money being made and I wasn’t participating in the fruitful market.

But Magic shouldn’t be all about the money. If Vesuvan Doppelganger is about childhood nostalgia, then buying up a dozen extra copies would fly in the face of this and objectify the card. Am I truly only into Magic for its financial component? I wrote a lengthy article last week describing my desire to avoid that mentality. So while I was disappointed that the card was suddenly more expensive, I came to accept that I didn’t really need more than one copy. I never did. If I want to make money from Magic, there’s never reason to regret missing out on a spike because there is always another. Always.

The Sloppy Buyout

The next tip I have when navigating buyouts is more pragmatic in nature. Often times when people buy out a card, they start with TCGplayer and focus on the lightly played and near mint copies. Why is this the first place to buy? Because it causes the action to hit the radar of multiple websites. MTGStocks, for example, uses TCG’s listed median price to display on its Interests page. By buying up LP and NM copies, and then reposting one for an astronomical number, it creates a “spike” on the price charts.

It’s pretty easy to identify the culprits who are driving the “spike” on MTGStocks. No one is going to pay $4,500 for a near mint Wheel. I’m sorry.

When the buyout starts, the MP, HP, and Damaged copies are usually left behind. In addition, not all websites are cleaned out of the card. It’s a little more time consuming to soak up all the copies on eBay. Star City Games, ABUGames, Card Kingdom, Channel Fireball, and a smattering of other online vendors also don’t necessarily sell out simultaneously.

When I see a card is bought out, I actually use this practice as a therapeutic device. I surf the web, looking for HP/MP copies that haven’t been scooped up yet. Sometimes I luck out and find some and other times I don’t. Since I am not averse to played copies, I often have HP listings as an option as well.

Recently when I saw Lion's Eye Diamond was disappearing from the market, I managed to find a decently priced copy from Star City Games. This helped me feel like I wasn’t missing out on an opportunity to profit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lion's Eye Diamond

If I can find a copy of the card, then great! Simply purchasing a single copy helps alleviate the FOMO. If I can’t find a copy, like with Wheel of Fortune, the practice of searching at least calms me down some. Forcing myself to take the time to think through my actions is enough to help me avoid reckless purchasing at lofty prices.

Plan Ahead

This is perhaps the most valuable piece of advice I can provide: plan ahead. If there are Reserved List cards you desire but haven’t quite prioritized them, it’s time to change that approach. Reserved List cards are going to be targeted by speculators and investors over and over again. It’s inevitable. We can rue this truth or we can do something about it.

This doesn’t mean you should go out and preemptively buy out cards. I strongly discourage such activity. But if you have an active want list in your mind, I’d recommend bumping Reserved List cards (ones that haven’t already spiked) toward the top of your list. This helps you get ahead of the curve when it comes to these buyouts.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Abyss

What’s more, knowing in advance what cards you truly want will help you ignore the noise of these day-to-day buyouts. Wheel of Fortune spiked over the weekend. If that card wasn’t on your want list, then you can ignore this fact and focus instead on cards you do want. This not only helps you avoid FOMO purchases—it helps you keep calm and carry on when the buyouts happen. It’s much easier to ignore a market’s trend when you don’t have any interest in that particular market in the first place.

Wrapping It Up

Buyouts are going to be here for a while. I’m oversimplifying the economics, but I anticipate more liquidity entering the market in the coming weeks. If President Biden comes in and issues additional stimulus checks to the majority of the U.S., this will trickle into the collectibles market, including Magic. This will inflate prices further.

Now more than ever, it’s important to get in front of these buyouts and have a strategy for how you’ll handle them. If you let them happen to you, you’ll be destined to react with a “FOMO” sentiment. This ultimately leads to overpaying for cards in a fit of panic buying (I’ve been there, trust me).

To combat this, let’s enter this unprecedented time with a plan. First, we won’t panic when a card disappears. We’ll enable a calm demeanor by planning a want list in advance, recognizing when our motivations are strictly monetary and not gameplay related, and we’ll shop around for missed copies. These activities will help us remain disciplined about buyouts.

Lastly, I want to mention one more thing: this is a seller’s market. If you have desirable Reserved List cards, it’s going to be easier than ever before to move them for cash. Don’t be afraid to sell some of your position as prices climb. I wouldn’t recommend selling out completely, all at once, as you may miss some of the climb. But trimming back now and then is a good way to raise cash for other needs. Life, after all, isn’t all about Magic, as much as we like to think it is sometimes.

January 14, 2021 Emergency Pauper Banned and Restricted Announcement

Posted on by Joseph Davidson

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Thursday morning greeted Pauper players with a surprise Banned and Restricted Announcement posted on the mothership. Ian Duke's article stated,

Magic Online league data and tournament results for the Pauper format have shown that the recent addition of Fall from Favor is having an adverse effect on the metagame. Serving as both a creature removal tool and a card advantage engine, Fall from Favor pushes out aggressive creature decks and places too much emphasis on a player becoming and remaining the monarch before opposing decks can prepare counterplay.

Pauper players have been lamenting the effects of Monarch on the format for months now, and this ban is the first step in hopefully taking the format back to a more balanced place. It's nice to see Wizards taking steps to help the metagame of an eternal format, and hopefully, this is setting the precedent that they will take more action if the format continues to stagnate.

Insider: The Runaway CCG Hype Train

Posted on by David Schumann

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This is a sliding friction buffer stop that is used to slow down runaway trains safely without damaging the train, cargo, or passengers. It is an important safety device used on numerous railway systems around the world. You might ask what on earth that has to do with Magic: The Gathering finance. Today's article is going to dive into Collectible Card Game finance as a whole instead of only focusing on Magic. It seems that CCGs have suddenly caught fire in the investment world and prices of cards and boxes have skyrocketed in 2020. It is my belief that these massive price increases are a bubble and I would caution anyone looking to jump into that realm to give it a second thought.

I felt the same way with Bitcoin back in 2017 when it spiked hard and then quickly plummeted back to less than 30% of the spike price. There was a lot of "FOMO" running around with investors who didn't understand Bitcoin and just didn't want to miss out on the next big thing. Once the hype cooled down, it quickly lost a lot of value. This is the same issue I see with many CCGs and TCGs right now.

Pokémon

Pokémon is actually very near and dear to me as I loved playing it back in 1999 when it first came out and it's the only other TCG that I really got into after Magic. I actually found my old Pokemon deck while clearing out some stuff this past holiday season and I have at least one card that appears to be highly valuable, 1st Edition Shadowless Holo Nidoking.

While Pokémon post-dated Magic by 6 years, its player base was a predominantly younger crowd that typically focused more on playing the game than collecting, as is such, finding the original cards in near mint condition is extremely difficult. Thus, it would make sense that the price for those copies could be hundreds of percent higher than played versions. Unfortunately, some of the highest-end cards, namely 1st Edition Shadowless Holo Charizard, almost assuredly have been price manipulated on eBay.

While this price is laughable and the bids were retracted, as one can't find that auction in the sold section anywhere on eBay. The point of these auctions is that they go viral and make people think the value of the card has risen dramatically.  Even major news outlets are picking up these stories. Sellers can then refer back to these types of auctions and convince people to pay way more for a "collectible" than the actual market price. While I won't delve anymore into this subject, there have been allegations of fraud and grade manipulation in the sports card realm which are relevant to the TCG realm.

Flesh and Blood

This TCG released October 11, 2019 so the game itself is only 15 months old as of me writing this. While print runs don't appear to be known, the fact that this came out shortly before the pandemic began likely means that its print run wasn't exceedingly high. Looking at recent eBay sales it appears that the Alpha print boxes are going for $3,000+ already. It took Magic: The Gathering's Alpha set 3 years before booster boxes were selling for $3000+ and in that time Magic had established itself as the top TCG.

I have not played Flesh and Blood so I can't give a first-hand count of how fun it is, but it seems like people look at old school Magic sealed boxes and assume that this game will follow the exact same trajectory. That is quite an assumption and one I certainly wouldn't make. I realize that these statements may ruffle some feathers and I feel it wise to give some additional context.

For those that don't know Jyhad (Vampire: The Eternal Struggle) was another CCG designed by Richard Garfield and was originally released back in 1994, 1 year after Magic. The name changed to Vampire the Eternal Struggle after the first printing. One would think that a game that was developed by Richard Garfield and released back in 1994 would certainly be more "investable" than a new game released in 2019, and yet sealed boxes go for only slightly more than in print standard boxes on eBay.

Why would a game that is 1 year younger than Magic and 5 years older than Pokémon still have sealed product available for around MSRP? The answer is that it simply didn't have the following that Magic did and thus it's price reflects that.

How about a game not designed by Richard Garfield, but with a massive fan base and is arguably one of the most valuable franchises in the history of media? Surely Decipher's original Star Wars CCG (released in 1995) must be obscenely valuable.

These boxes are selling for around twice the original MSRP, despite the fact that there is a dedicated player base who continues to develop cards and expansions for this game they love.

I would simply ask anyone looking to invest in any of these products:

  1. Does this game feel like it has strong staying power?
  2. Is this game more fun than Magic?
  3. How well do I understand this game and are the current prices accurate of demand or are they heavily inflated?
  4. Will the players feel nostalgic about this game in 5 years, 10 years, 20+ years?

It is also important to mention that unlike most other forms of investments; stocks, funds, etc; collectible card games are not regulated by any government entity in the US and I'm not aware of any such entities outside the US either. This means they can be manipulated with no risk of punitive measures and thus are more likely to be.

Conclusion

The purpose of this article isn't to completely discourage people from investing in TCGs or CCGs, but to make one pause to really think about such an investment. I use the same mindset when looking at any investments and I hope to encourage others to do the same.

Snow-Thing to Consider: Kaldheim Spoiler Week 1

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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It's time for that quarterly tradition of reviewing the latest spoilers! Which for the past few iterations has been oddly trepidatious. Prior to 2019, Modern never had to worry about a new set coming out. We maybe had one or two cards make lasting impressions, which kept the format stable. Then Wizards seemed to lose the plot. We've seen constant upheaval and disruption since Modern Horizons. And it had been getting tiresome. Which means that I entered this season wondering what fresh horror awaited.

However, the coast is clear. So far. It's always important to remember that Wizards works roughly two years ahead, so the lessons learned from the mistakes of 2019 are just now starting to apply. Though the full effect won't be felt until after 2022. As I'm writing this article, Kaldheim looks very benign. There are a few interesting role players and build-arounds, but no massive card advantage engines, inexplicable ramp, or endlessly recurring creatures. Good sign. As is tradition, I'll lead off by looking at the mechanics of Kaldheim and a card with brew potential.

A Light Flurry

Wizards has made it something of a habit over the past few years to have a number of returning mechanics as well as two new ones. This seems to be the standard for all these stand-alone sets; back when blocks were a thing, 3-4 were typical of a big set. Which means that I can just point back to what I've already said about most of the mechanics. However, this time around it's particularly bad, as there's only one new mechanic with any depth to discuss.

Boast

The first of the new mechanics, boast, probably won't see Modern play. Boast is a creature ability that lets said creature have a spell effect if the cost is paid. Which sounds like a normal activated ability, honestly, and I question making it a whole mechanic. The ability's hook (I guess) is that a creature can only boast if it attacked. And only once per turn. So, it's in every way worse than just an activated ability. However, those restrictions allow boast abilities to be more powerful than a normal activated ability. As we saw with the companions, sufficient power trumps any restrictions, so there is potential for boast.

However, it appears that Wizards was extremely cautious with boast. As of writing, the only boast creature that's vaguely Modern playable is Varragoth, Bloodsky Sire, and that's pretty questionable. A 2/3 deathtouch for three is not Modern playable, and given the current metagame won't meaningfully trade up very often. The ability is very attractive, as Vampiric Tutor is a good card. Losing instant speed and costing double is burdensome, but Modern is so tutoring deficient that it could be worthwhile. However, that doesn't change the fact that Varragoth will probably play as a three mana removal spell that lets you pay another two to Vamp, which doesn't seem playable. There may be something coming down the pipe with boast, but I'm skeptical.

More MDFC's

I get the feeling that there's some internal dissension about getting rid of blocks, on the basis that Kaldheim and Strixhaven both have modal double-face cards just like Zendikar Rising. As they would if it was a block mechanic. Wizards has had a problem of Magic feeling disjoined and the sets being overcrowded since blocks went away, so maybe this is an attempt to fix the problem. Or subtly bring blocks design back, subverting the structure change. I'm keeping my eyes open.

In any case, what was a big deal in the last set is now small potatoes. Zendikar Rising's MDFC's allowed Goblin Charbelcher and Oops, All Spells to become things in Modern. Kaldheim's are a choice between a creature and a non-land permanent (plus finishing the dual land cycle). None of which appear to be good enough at this point. Except for the fact that cascading into the front side allows the back face to be played, which means that Jund could play Bloodbraid Elf, cascade into Valki, God of Lies and choose to play Tibalt, Cosmic Imposter instead. Which seems really gimmicky to me. But might be okay?

Sagas and Changeling

Sagas and changeling are also returning, but neither are especially worth discussing. Changeling isn't good on its own, and no deck ever plays a card just because it's a changeling. Tribal synergies aren't enough, the abilities have to matter, which is why Unsettled Mariner sees play. Realmwalker has some potential, but is quite slow. As a result, it doesn't outright beat a Militia Bugler for Humans and Elves or Elementals don't need another card advantage creature. As for sagas, the only one I've ever seen get played in Modern is The Antiquities War, and only pre-Urza, Lord High Artificer. They're so slow that one's going to have to be very niche or just busted to see play.

It's Snowing Again

And finally, snow is getting back into Standard for the first time since Coldsnap. However, Modern's already been over the implications of snow (specifically, snow-covered lands) back in 2019. And it's worth remembering that since Arcum's Astrolabe was banned, the only non-land snow permanent that sees play is Ice-Fang Coatl. And that's been very limited lately. The bottom line is that there's no harm in playing snow-covered lands, but there's not any payoff either. At least now yet, only a small fraction of the set is spoiled and there could be a snow card (be it a permanent or an instant or sorcery) that justifies the snow theme.

The only exception is the new snow duals. Coldsnap had ETB tapped snow lands, and Kaldheim takes those and makes them dual lands, and thereby fetchable. Which puts them in the same boat as the Ikoria triomes. However, unless there's some snow synergy to exploit, I don't see how any of the snow lands beat out a triome. Two colors are less than three and cycling is a phenomenal mechanic. As fetch targets for a slow two-color deck they're fine, but there are so many better options that I need to see more reason to play snow to bother.

I'm Seeing Potential

That leaves the only one mechanic: foretell. And this one has a lot of promise, so it gets its own section. Foretell is what might happen if morph and suspend had an ugly, yet very smart, baby. Cards with foretell are foretold by paying two generic mana and then exiling the card face-down. On another turn, that exiled spell can be cast for its foretell cost. Which is a weird in terms of sequencing and restrictions (hence the ugly). However, it's also a very elegant mechanic past that point. Just like morph, it's not a net cost reduction mechanic. The foretell cards spoiled so far cost the same or a mana more to foretell as they do to just cast. But foretell being spread out over turns makes it more like an investment mechanic and creates some interesting gameplay potential.

As I see it there are two uses for foretell:

  1. Hiding cards from discard
  2. Saving mana on a critical turn

The first option is admittedly pretty marginal. Discard spells cost one, foretell costs two. Opponents will get more cards from you than can be hidden with foretell. The best use there is simply sandbagging a critical spell for a few turns, which isn't nothing, but it's also not good.

Win the Big Turn

The second one is the most interesting, especially given the currently known foretell cards. Foretold cards can only be interacted with via Riftsweeper and the Eldrazi processors like Wasteland Strangler. Also, remember that they're cheaper to cast via foretell than from hand on the turn they're cast. Which in turn means that foretell can be used in attrition matchups, particularly control mirrors, to overwhelm opposing mana. Casting a cheap(er) payoff and then having mana for more or to defend it seems like a good strategy.

There are two foretell cards that may make this a reality. Behold the Multiverse is Glimmer of Genius but without energy, and I've seen Glimmer played in Modern before, though it was in a ponderous UW deck. At two mana, it suddenly becomes more attractive, especially when sneaking it in on an opponent's end step with counter backup. Not a backbreaking play, but good incremental advantage in a control mirror. Kaldheim also has the foretell counterspell Saw it Coming, which isn't good enough on its own, but a two-mana hard counter down the line is nothing to sneeze at. I'm seeing the potential of using Behold and Coming to out gradually build what's effectively a hand in exile and then wait to spring a trap.

Outside of this very specific application, neither card is really Modern playable. Unless that plan is needed a lot or there are other playable foretell cards, it seems too niche to see play. However, I also know That One Control Player whose eyes rolled back in his head when I mentioned this potential. I'm certain he's working on the problem and I'll fill all you in on his findings when he inevitably (and unwelcomely) gushes my ears off.

Magda, Brazen Outlaw

I am not a combo player. I have played many combo decks before, but I don't have the madness vision to conceive the like of Bubble Hulk or Neobrand. However, I've hung around enough of them to at least glimpse that world, and some parts have rubbed off. Which is why I've been fruitlessly pondering over Magda, Brazen Outlaw. When she was spoiled around Christmas as a teaser, I noted that she has a weird number of abilities, but little more. She's a 2/1 that buffs an uncompetitive tribe and can find a dragon. Clearly destined for commander and nothing else; time to move on.

Except, I didn't move on. There was an itch in the back of my mind, and every time I tried to scratch it, Magda came up. But I didn't know why. There was nothing obviously Modern playable about her. Dwarfs don't see play and there are no good treasure makers to use her tutoring ability. But the thought that Magda was important wouldn't go away. Around New Years, I finally started wondering if she was actually an engine. Which made me reread the card and realize that she triggers on any dwarf being tapped, including her. In turn, I wondered if there was a way to untap her and go infinite. Which led to way too much time with Scryfall before discovering the legendarily bad card Second Wind would do the job. And I finally figured out what my subconscious was trying to tell me: Magda solves the Four Horseman problem.

The Soft-Ban Work Around

Four Horsemen is an unremarkable Legacy combo deck built around Basalt Monolith, which can tap and untap itself indefinitely, and Mesmeric Orb to mill the entire deck. The actual kill was to feed Narcomoeba into Blasting Station (which was previously Sharuum the Hegemon-ed into play after the latter had been Dread Returned) over and over while milling Emrakul, the Aeons Torn to reset the combo. It's complicated and easily disrupted, and so never saw much success.

However, Four Horsemen is a legendary deck because it is one of two decks to be soft-banned. The decks are legal to play, except technically they're not, because they violate the Tournament Rules. Specifically, Four Horsemen violates the slow play rules. The loop is infinitely repeatable, but not deterministic, as there's no way to know when Sharuum will be in the graveyard at the same time as Dread Return with three Nacromoebas in play. And loops that don't advance the board state are slow play, meaning that executing the combo is likely to accrue warnings and penalties, enough to get a player disqualified. For those wondering, the other deck is Battle of Wits. You can't shuffle that monster of a deck in compliance with the randomization rules. And even if you can, your opponent can't, and the judge won't. Nor should they have to.

Magda allows the same loop, but since she generates a treasure each time, she is technically in compliance with the slow play rules. Adding a treasure is advancing the board, albeit lamely. Which means that Four Horsemen can be played in Modern. And it's also easier, since Magda can just tutor up the Station without Sharuum.

Winning with Bad Cards

Except don't do that. Before I had finished writing up that decklist, I asked myself, why? Why bother with that whole rigmarole when Magda could just make infinite mana and tutor up a win? So I did that instead. Except, after another lengthy search, I found that the number of artifacts and dragons that win the game from the battlefield in one shot is very low. Walking Ballista doesn't work; it enters the battlefield as a 0/0. A shortlist consisted of Skarrgan Hellkite, Shivan Hellkite, Welder Automaton, and Goblin Cannon. All amazingly bad cards.

But that's okay, as the rest of the combo is pretty bad, too. None of you remembered that Second Wind existed until I mentioned it five paragraphs ago. The first ability does nothing, actual nothing. And Magda dies to every removal spell. And the win condition is Goblin Cannon. But then, it's a combo deck, and those routinely play terrible cards because the whole is greater than the sum of their parts. And since this combo happens turn three, that might be good enough. It's similar to Splinter Twin, but faster, after all.

But no, it's worse than Twin. I actually started working with it in a Kiki-Twin shell, using Cannon as the kill. And it was so much worse as a result. Magda plays a little better since at least she can attack and make a treasure, but she really throws that deck off. And unlike Twin, Wind does actual nothing without Magda. Don't follow my lead—this combo is terrible!

Urza by Another Name?

But I can't give it up. After failing so abysmally with a dedicated shell, I remembered that treasures are artifacts. And so is Cannon. And that Springleaf Drum could make Magda useful outside of combat. So why not try it in an artifact deck instead?

Magda Whirza, Test Deck

Creatures

2 Goblin Engineer
3 Magda, Brazen Outlaw
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer

Enchantments

2 Second Wind

Instants

2 Galvanic Blast
2 Metalic Rebuke
3 Whir of Invention

Artifacts

4 Witching Well
2 Chromatic Sphere
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Springleaf Drum
1 Pithing Needle
4 Thopter Foundry
3 Pentad Prism
2 Sword of the Meek
1 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Goblin Cannon

Lands

4 Island
3 Polluted Delta
3 Spire of Industry
2 Scalding Tarn
2 Darkslick Shores
1 Academy Ruins
1 Glimmervoid
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
1 Spirebluff Canal
1 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave

To be clear, the deck is still bad. But not so much worse than normal Grixis Whirza as to be immediately rejected. Magda and Drum is just okay, but it's an option to accelerate out Urza and then keep benefitting from the treasures. The Magda combo can facilitate the thopter combo, and Urza can produce the mana for Cannon. However, it still feels wrong, like I have the parts don't fit quite right. I may be onto something here, but I don't know what nor how to fix it, so I'm asking for help. Are there any real combo players out there that can figure out how to make this good?

The Norsemen Come

Kaldheim spoilers have been trickling out for over a month, but the spoiler season has only just begun in earnest. Hopefully there will be a real reason to play snow in the set, but even if not, it's nice to not have an obviously disruptive new addition to worry about.

December ’20 Brew Report, Pt. 2: Loose Ends

Posted on by Jordan Boisvert

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It may well be January, but we're not out of the woods yet—2020 and I have some unfinished bidness to attend to, or specifically, the final brew report of the year! That players are still brewing novel decks bodes well for the new year, as such trends will probably continue.

Creatures Galore

Modern's always been a format defined first and foremost by its creatures, unlike the older formats better known for powerful spells. So of course new brews are going to tap that reservoir!

Death's Domain Zoo, FAISAL (5-0)

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Death's Shadow
4 Scourge of the Skyclaves
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Street Wraith

Planeswalkers

3 Wrenn and Six

Sorceries

2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
4 Tribal Flames

Instants

4 Boros Charm
4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Godless Shrine
1 Marsh Flats
1 Nurturing Peatland
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Temple Garden
2 Verdant Catacombs
1 Watery Grave
2 Windswept Heath
2 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Boil
3 Cleansing Wildfire
1 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Lightning Helix
1 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Path to Exile
2 Pithing Needle
2 Rakdos Charm

Death's Domain Zoo follows a blueprint now well-known: backing up a couple massive threats with a highly efficient Stage 1 combat creature. But a few things are different. For one, there's no Monastery Swiftspear, that role filled by the splash-intensive Wild Nacatl. I'm reminded of my experiments with Counter-Cat, which had me looking to Nacatl after finding Swiftspear decidedly lackluster in a shell more interested in sticking stand-alone threats. Next, there's the extreme density of large creatures; while Death's Shadow Jund traditionally employed just Goyf and Shadow as beaters, and Scourge Shadow hires Scourge and Shadow, DDZ runs all three to keep the pressure on no matter the number of removal spells it walks into. This is not a deck that wants to hit the mid-game!

Playing to that plan is the additional payoff for splashing so much: Tribal Flames. In Counter-Cat, I neglected to run black after realizing that Boros Charm, with its versatility in being able to protect our creatures, was generally better than Flames. Here, both are ran at max, and the extra burn saves pilots from even wanting countermagic. Go ahead and resolve that Ugin; I'll just dome you 9! Tying everything together is Wrenn and Six, a superb enabler in this kind of shell as it lets players fix their mana at their leisure.

Yorion Taxes, FABEE1 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Akoum Warrior
4 Akroma, Angel of Fury
2 Auriok Champion
4 Flickerwisp
4 Giver of Runes
3 Glimmerpoint Stag
4 Leonin Arbiter
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Skyclave Apparition
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Wall of Omens

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

4 Ephemerate
4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Field of Ruin
4 Ghost Quarter
4 Inspiring Vantage
4 Sacred Foundry
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
10 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

3 Archon of Emeria
3 Kor Firewalker
4 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Rest in Peace
1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

If you thought 12 big threats was a lot, wait until you've seen Yorion Taxes! Like most Yorion decks, it's chock-full of guys, although these are less about beating down than applying disruption. Here, the fish-style taxing strategy of Death and Taxes is mashed with a creature suite more about generating value. Since these decks can flounder in the face of removal spells, and such midrange decks are on the rise as Jund Rock converts to Mardu, employing both value creatures and Yorion as a failsafe is a strategy that aims to stick it to the Fatal Pusher while nonetheless boasting game against combo.

To me, the deck seems a bit unfocused; I can see it drawing the wrong half against the wrong deck, and finding itself randomly soft to something like Storm or Belcher. Still, the red splash has got to dig up some points, as Magus of the Moon is no joke this format.

It does boast a very spicy interaction though: Akoum Warrior isn't just here as a sometimes-six-drop. Flickerwisp can blink the land and have it return as a creature!

Yorion Incarnation, DAVIUSMINIMUS (5-0)

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
1 Brain Maggot
1 Charming Prince
1 Deputy of Detention
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
1 Flickerwisp
1 Glasspool Mimic
1 Goblin Cratermaker
1 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Ice-Fang Coatl
1 Magus of the Moon
1 Meddling Mage
1 Niv-Mizzet Reborn
2 Renegade Rallier
1 Seasoned Pyromancer
2 Skyclave Apparition
1 Spellskite
1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den

Enchantments

4 Abundant Growth
4 Enigmatic Incarnation
3 Lithoform Blight
2 Oath of Kaya
2 Omen of the Forge
4 Omen of the Sea
4 Utopia Sprawl
2 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath
1 Yorion, Sky Nomad

Instants

1 Abrupt Decay
1 Assassin's Trophy

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
1 Indatha Triome
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Prismatic Vista
2 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Brain Maggot
1 Yorion, Sky Nomad
1 Auriok Champion
2 Dovin's Veto
1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Knight of Autumn
1 Kunoros, Hound of Athreos
4 On Thin Ice
2 Spell Pierce
1 Yixlid Jailer

A second Yorion deck, and the one that's been performing the best this month, is Yorion Incarnation. It looks at first glance like any old 5-0 deck, but as it's placed multiple times, the pile may merit a closer look.

It's Enigmatic Incarnation itself that makes this deck so unique, turning its many ramping enchantments (including the eyebrow-raising Lithoform Blight) into whatever utility creature happens to be the most useful at the time. Since players have already cashed in on their enchantment, which cantrips, throwing it away for a valuable creature is great advantage, especially since the creature in question can be chosen from an impressive roster. Incarnation isn't totally dead in multiples, either, since now it can search up a five-drop like Yorion or Niv-Mizzet.

Combos—Some More!

We've talked at length about how Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath has come to define the present format, whether or not its numbers place it at the top of the heap. But there are other ways to generate value in Modern, and even other ways to play Simic.

Temur Time Warp, TALOS41 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Ice-Fang Coatl
4 Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath
4 Arbor Elf

Planeswalkers

3 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Tamiyo, Collector of Tales
3 Wrenn and Six

Enchantments

2 Abundant Growth
4 Utopia Sprawl

Sorceries

4 Time Warp

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Remand

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Prismatic Vista
3 Snow-Covered Forest
3 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

3 Aether Gust
3 Blood Moon
2 Flame Slash
2 Obstinate Baloth
3 Veil of Summer
2 Wilt

Here's a snowballing-value deck in the same vein as the regular Uro piles, but conspicuously lacking Omnath. Temur Time Warp instead makes use of Tamiyo, Collector of Tales to copy its own Time Warps, setting itself up to generate massive value over the course of multiple free turns wherein it's free to cast and activate different planeswalkers to its heart's content.

But at this deck's own heart is the assumption that in a midrange deck with Wrenn and Six to help hit them land drops, Time Warp might just be a reasonable card to cast for five mana some portion of the time.

Underworld Paradox, BILLSIVE (5-0)

Creatures

4 Emry, Lurker of the Loch
4 Gilded Goose
4 Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy

Planeswalkers

4 Karn, the Great Creator

Artifacts

2 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
3 Grinding Station
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Amber
3 Paradox Engine

Enchantments

4 Underworld Breach

Lands

2 Breeding Pool
1 Ketria Triome
4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Forest
2 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
3 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Grinding Station
1 Paradox Engine
1 Ensnaring Bridge
2 Lightning Bolt
1 Liquimetal Coating
2 Mystical Dispute
2 Nature's Claim
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Torpor Orb
2 Veil of Summer
1 Walking Ballista

Underworld Paradox takes the word "combo" beyond merely copying a sorcery, and also proves players don't need Uro to be in UGx. This deck looks a lot like the Oko Urza decks from late 2019, but minus the emphasis on playing a fair game with the Artificer. Kinnan, Bonder Prodigy replaces Urza, jump-starting the mana engine so players can resolve Karn, the Great Creator to dig for a combo piece or otherwise go off with what they have.

There are even new variations of this deck in Sultai that do run Urza, as well as Uro, and rely on Thopter-Sword to out-grind players that manage to disrupt it. Based on these developments, will be interesting to see the different directions artifact-based combo-control piles elect to take in 2021 with Mox Opal gone for good.

Rakdos Waste Not, TOYA (5-0)

Creatures

4 Dreadhorde Arcanist
2 Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble
1 Necrogen Spellbomb

Enchantments

4 Waste Not

Sorceries

4 Burning Inquiry
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Raven's Crime
3 Thoughtseize

Instants

2 Cling to Dust
4 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
3 Lightning Bolt

Lands

2 Arid Mesa
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Castle Locthwain
2 Marsh Flats
2 Mountain
3 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Lurrus of the Dream-Den
2 Anger of the Gods
1 Crumble to Dust
1 Dreadbore
3 Feed the Swarm
2 Nihil Spellbomb
3 Pillage
2 Surgical Extraction

Combo-control, eh? Who needs Islands and Forests at all? Certainly not Rakdos Waste Not, an update to a fan favorite featuring welcome additions like Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger and the Dark Confidant upgrade Dreadhorde Arcanist. Drawing an extra card for life is a lot worse than flashing back your best one every turn, in this case Burning Inquiry or even a Thoughtseize.

Even if this deck shreds everyone's hand without the enchantment in play, it doesn't have to wait for a topdeck to take a lead; Lurrus of the Dream-Den, the sideboard companion, waits in the wings to retrieve whatever Burning Inquiry decides to discard. Alternatively, there's just Kroxa.

Cheers to That

New year, new decks, new fun. Or is it old fun? Modern's always had ample room for brewing and innovation. "The more things change," they say... let's all hope the saying only applies to some aspects of the new year!

Self-Reflection: How MTG Finance Ruined Magic

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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We are officially in the thick of Kaldheim spoiler season. Every day I see new cards from the upcoming set on Twitter. A few have looked interesting, but for the most part, I have to admit I’m distracted.

First of all, there’s the whole political situation in the United States. I’m going to try my very best to keep politics out of this article, but I do want my readers to know how upset I am about everything that happened last week. The news has monopolized my attention, and this is probably the major reason I’m behind on spoiler season.

The other distraction from spoiler season, outside politics, is the rampant asset appreciation seen across the board. After a brief cooldown, Magic cards are once again on the rise. Namely, I’m seeing numerous Discord and Facebook posts by folks looking to buy Power, Dual Lands, and Collectors’ Edition cards. These rises in price are also gripping my attention since I follow Magic prices very closely.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

Perhaps too closely.

In fact, I wonder if Magic prices have become such a focus for me, that it has detracted from the game itself? That’s what I want to reflect upon this week, as an off-beat article. Rather than go on and on again about how economic factors are driving card prices higher, I want to ponder about how Magic finance has shifted my approach to the hobby itself. It’s not all sunshine and roses.

My History in Magic

I can define my engagement with Magic by breaking my history in the game into a few distinct phases. The first phase was the longest, ranging from 1997 until 2006. During this time period, I was strictly a casual player engaging with the game purely for its entertainment. When I had spare funds I wanted to spend on Magic, I purchased booster packs (or the occasional eBay repack). That was my primary way of acquiring new cards.

I never read about the game online. I very rarely bought singles (outside of the cool card I saw and could afford at my LGS). I never looked up deck strategy. My friends and I played for fun, building decks that fit our whimsy, and innocently playing a game.

Then something changed in 2006. I had purchased a booster pack of cards and the rare inspired me to build a new kind of deck. I believe that card was Celestial Convergence, but my memory is admittedly fuzzy. Around that same period, I also remember opening an Overburden from a booster pack of Prophecy once and immediately buying three more to try and make a deck out of the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Overburden

I delineate 2006 as the start of a new phase because that’s the first time I started purchasing singles online. Looking back at my Card Shark order history, I see that January 25th, 2006 marked the date of this momentous event. Here’s the order below (notice how I was into older cards even back then):

This event seems inconsequential on the surface; I didn’t really buy any cards of note, other than Armageddon and Oubliette. But this was the first time I realized I didn’t have to open boosters or shop at my LGS in order to obtain cards for a deck. I can order them (inexpensively) online and they arrive at my doorstep a week later.

From 2006 until 2011, I started elevating my game. I started engaging with Magic like never before, engaging with the website to learn about new sets, the story behind them, and most importantly, the decks that made waves in the game. I still wasn’t net-decking at this point, but I realized for just a few bucks I could make my brews more streamlined by filling it out with key deck pieces. This was the time period where I started playing competitively: I attended a couple PTQ’s and started drafting at a local game shop (side note: Time Spiral is a very difficult format to learn how to draft!). I had the most success with local Legacy events, and I took down a few tournaments with Storm, Reanimator, and a deck called “New Horizons”. (I miss the days when deck names told you absolutely nothing about the deck itself. Who remembers decks like Team America and Fruity Pebbles?)

There was an error retrieving a chart for Terravore

Towards the tail end of this range, I got to know a popular Magic personality at my local game shop: Jonathan Medina. Medina was a pioneer in MTG finance. I’ll always remember the first time I browsed through his trade binder and asked him how he acquired so many sweet, valuable cards. In my naivete, I asked him if he obtained all these $20 Standard rares by opening packs. He responded, “No. Through trades!”

Thus my foray into MTG finance began.

It didn’t really take form, however, until 2012. That’s the year my son was born, and it required I dial back my engagement with playing the game significantly. This was also around the time where Legacy was peaking and prices were reaching new highs. I noticed I could start converting Magic cards into real-life amounts of money (not just quarters and dollars; we’re talking $20 and $100 bills!).

This was when a circuit jumped in my brain—I flipped from being a player first to being an MTG finance person first. Playing became secondary to being able to make some money from Magic. It was precisely then when I lost my innocence. And it has been like this ever since.

The Impact of MTG Finance

When I started putting MTG finance first, I started making drastically different decisions involving how I engage with Magic. I no longer purchased booster packs, for starters. Such terrible EV, right? And on the rare occasions when I do open packs, it’s not because I want to explore a new world within the game. I’m not looking for new build-around cards to play with on my kitchen table. Instead, all I care about is whether or not I made a few bucks by opening a valuable rare. (spoiler: most of the time I don’t)

But the negative impact on my perception of Magic goes well beyond not opening booster packs. I completely lost my passion for playing the game. For example, participating in large events such as Grands Prix is terrible EV. From a money standpoint, it’s a complete waste of time to pay $100 to enter a tournament, play Magic all day, and have only a sliver’s chance of cashing out. I realized the most money-efficient way to engage with a Grand Prix is to use that time to sell cards to vendors, trade (less common nowadays), and shop dealer booths for underpriced cards.

The thrill and excitement I had playing in my first Grand Prix, a Legacy Grand Prix in Columbus (I went 6-2-1 and had a blast), became a thing of the past. Instead of tweaking decks and reading about metagames, I spent my pre-GP energy on researching card prices and mapping out what I hope to sell.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stifle

Fast-forward a few years to the mid-to-late 2010’s. I still maintain decks to play with, but I purposefully neuter them when it makes financial sense to do so. I abandon Standard because it’s terrible EV to constantly have cards rotate out. I abandon Modern because Wizards keeps reprinting cards, crushing values. I abandon Legacy for the same reason (although there’s reason to keep the Reserved List stuff).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rishadan Port

I maintain a couple Commander decks, but I can’t bring myself to put any cards of value in them because those cards could be converted into cash before Wizards reprints them. As a result, I start tweaking decks to make them fun, but my focus no longer is on winning the game. Winning consistently usually costs money—money I’d rather not spend on the hobby. At this point, I do almost nothing in Magic that may be cash-negative on the balance sheet.

Magic had become nothing more than a modest cash-generator. While this is how numerous vendors, re-sellers, and MTG financiers continuously engage in the hobby, for me personally this was a disappointment. I longed for the days when opening a pack was about getting cool new cards and not about trying to win $10 on a $4 scratch-off ticket.

Optimism For 2020 and Beyond

In the back half of the 2010s, I started exploring Old School as a way of re-engaging with Magic. In a way, the format is ideal for people like me—people who craved the “good old days” of innocent Magic while also keeping an eye on the financial implications of doing so. With Old School, I was able to play the old cards I always wanted as a kid but could never afford, brew to my heart’s content, and focus on having fun. In the meantime, I didn’t have to worry about reprints, rotation, or masters sets crushing my collection’s value.

For once I could have my cake and eat it too.

What’s more, another new development came for me in 2020: I discovered Magic Arena. With the advent of this platform, I can engage in competitive Magic at no financial cost. Previously, if I wanted to play competitive Magic I’d have to sink $100’s into Standard decks or drafts with a hope and a prayer that I could cash out at tournaments to subsidize the practice. Now I can scratch the itch of competitive play for free!

It’s not quite the same as the late 90’s or early 00’s, when my enjoyment of Magic was the least impacted by money. But given my current paradigm, Old School is the closest I have to that childhood mindset. Frankly, I’ll take whatever I can get.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Erhnam Djinn

Wrapping It Up

The concept of Magic finance nearly ruined the game for me. With 24 years of playing under my belt, I reflect on my history and realize how the financial aspect spoiled the most beloved part of the game. My childhood innocence was washed away, replaced with greed. There’s no other way to put it.

Now that Magic is in its fourth decade (90’s, 00’s, 10’s, and 20’s) I can use this perspective in an attempt to deliberately shift my attitude about the game. Rather than fixate on money, I have found alternate ways of engaging in the hobby without burning through cash. Old School Magic is one avenue, and Magic Arena is another.

I don’t think I could ever return to the olden days. Gone are the times when I could drive to my LGS, purchase a handful of packs, and use the new cards to brew up new deck ideas using whatever I had on hand. These days are behind me not only because of my focus on finance, but also because I lack the luxury of time—I can’t play new decks on a daily basis with friends like I once did.

But what I can do, is utilize what I have available to me to try and enjoy the game like I once did. In addition, I can strive to re-create my innocent enjoyment of Magic for my 8-year-old son, who is only recently getting into the game. I need to make sure I engage with him on the exciting parts of the game and deck building rather than its financial component. I admit I have not done a great job with this thus far, but hopefully I have time to reconcile with that innocence. Just because finance corrupted my view of the game doesn’t mean it needs to do that for my children.

In the end, I’d like to enter a fourth state of Magic. One of generativity, where I can help my kids and other newcomers to the game enjoy it for what it is: a game.

Insider: Business Year-End Review 2020

Posted on by David Schumann

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This year has been crazy, to say the least. COVID-19 completely turned the world upside down and the new normal isn't like any normal in recent history. There were a lot of negatives this year, but I know that many of us running MTG stores out of our homes have likely had a good year; especially those whose focus is on Commander. It certainly helps that even before the pandemic, WotC had already deemed 2020 to be the "Year of Commander", so we would have expected a lot of sales tied to the format.

Anyone who has read my previous articles related to my actual online storefront know, I like to keep pretty detailed records of my transactions. There is a reason that Google and Facebook are highly valuable and highly profitable companies and yet most consumers get their products for free. Data has a lot of value and hopefully, after reading this article, any of you who don't keep records or keep minimal records may want to adjust that strategy moving into 2021. Below is a screenshot of my sales datasheet which I fill out after every order;

For those who remember my "Optimizing Fulfillment" article it actually takes me a decent amount of time to fill this out, particularly the purchase price field as I often have to dig through my records to find that information. This step can add between 20 and 80 seconds to an order, which is a lot of time if you have a lot of sales in a day. Though it may not even seem worthwhile at the time, it pays dividends in the long run.

The whole reason I perform this task throughout the year is so that I can review the data at the end of the year. I should mention that I keep a similar datasheet for my expenses which has made finding the "purchase price" a whole lot easier.

Sales by Format

Here's my 'sales by format' pie chart. As you can see, Commander accounted for 75.2% of my overall sales this entire year compared to 2019, where it accounted for 44.9% which is a significant difference. What's more interesting is that the Pioneer format accounted for only 7.7% of my overall sales, despite the fact that last year it was introduced as a format in Q4 and managed to make up 11% of my overall yearly sales numbers.

However, given that paper events have been virtually non-existent all year, it makes sense that the majority of sales in 2020 are for a format that can be played casually at the kitchen table rather than at an LGS or major event. What isn't surprising is the minimal sales for Standard and Old School, as these are both formats I tend to avoid purchasing inventory for.

The reason I find this data so important is when I buy inventory. If you know what you've been selling, you'll have a better idea of what to keep buying. This seems obvious, but it's important to keep in mind that if you only list a certain format's staples, then you can create a feedback loop with this type of data. In 2019 I had almost 34% of my sales come from Modern demand, so I have a fair amount of Modern inventory that clearly isn't moving.

Sales Avenue

While the sales avenue isn't data I typically lean on for any meaningful interpretation, it does give me a good idea of where my sales are coming from. I should note that I haven't listed anything on Amazon or eBay this year, so my non-TCGplayer sales are almost always either Facebook or local sales. I will differentiate between the two for next year, but my latest chart shows me that I rely heavily on TCGplayer for most of my sales and it might be smart to diversify my sales venues.

Expenses

You can't have sales without expenses and I think it's equally as important to track your spending. I should mention that when it comes to expenses, I do have a "personal" category which is when I buy cards or boxes for my own personal use with no intention of selling the cards. Interestingly enough, my 2020 Personal expenses are actually up by around 5% compared to 2019. This isn't surprising, given the only format I really play anymore is Commander, and a lot of Commander cards came out this year.

My business expenses are up by 19% this year; I purchased a lot of stamps after some stellar sales months in April, May, and June and orders slowed down after June, so I have plenty of stamps for 2021. Lastly, my Store Inventory and Speculation are down by 17% and 7% respectfully. This makes sense as I have been focusing more on selling cards I had previously acquired and with WotC's drive to keep pumping out new products I have been far more hesitant to speculate on cards than in the past.

Yearly Sales Comparison

My last graph is a comparison bar chart between monthly sales in 2019 and 2020. Overall, 2020 had significantly higher sales volumes than 2019 for every month but November and December, which if you'll, recall Pioneer was announced October 21, 2019. I imagine many sellers like myself got a nice spike in sales going into the 2019 Holiday Season thanks to the new format.

It's also important to notice that May has repeatedly been my best sales month 2 years in a row. While only 2 years' worth of data isn't really a lot to go by, if this trend is accurate, it means I should make sure to buy more aggressively in April to make sure I have the most inventory available for May.

Conclusion

While 2020 has been a trying year for the whole world, it has been a good year for selling Magic cards. Hopefully reading over this and looking at my data, you get a picture of why it's important to track this type of information and get a better understanding of the value of the data itself.

So It Ends: December 2020 Metagame Update

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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And now, to formally close the books on a terrible year. Yes, it is in fact 2021; time did truly progress, and we're not trapped in a Doctor Who-style loop. However, a new month means a new metagame update, which means that I must remind everyone of the past year. Sorry!

The data set is significantly down for December. November was the largest set I've ever worked with at 681 decks, which would have been hard for any month to top. December didn't even try, yielding are only 558 decks. It's not the smallest total for a full month; August still holds that distinction. However, December also doesn't have August's excuse. Up until October, Wizards wasn't especially consistent about how many events were posted per week, while August and September had a lot of missing Preliminaries and Challenges. December's events were posted like clockwork and completely, as far as I know, but numbers were way down.

After the first week of December, I don't think a single Preliminary posted a 5-0 deck, and often only ~5 decks were listed. Which is not too surprising considering the holidays. Even the most dedicated streamers and grinders have to rest sometime, and I saw a lot of unusual decks crop up as a result. With the sharks away, the minnows will play. It does mean that December's data will be a bit weird.

December Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck “should” produce on MTGO. To be a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough;” in December, the average population was 7.97, meaning a deck needed 8 results to beat the average and make Tier 3. Then, we go one standard deviation above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and cutoff to Tier 2. The STdev was 10.20, so that means Tier 3 runs to 18, and Tier 2 starts with 19 results and runs to 29. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 30 decks are required.

The smaller population meant that both the cutoff and the deviation was lower than normal, though the deviation was still higher than in September. Hard to say if that means anything for the data or results, but it's worth noting, and suggests that September was relatively more stable than every other month.

The Tier List

Just as the total population is down, the number of decks in the sample are down. However, not as down as I'd expect. Despite December dropping 123 results compared to November, it's only down 10 decks to 70. Which says a lot about how many rogue or at least untiered decks continue to place, which in turn says positive things about Modern's health and diversity. Of those 70 decks, 23 made the tier list, which is up one from November. The lower average coupled with a fairly high deviation is likely the reason, but it does go to show how volatile these standings really are.

I'd also like to take a moment to mention that there aren't any aggregate decks here except 4-C Omnath, which keeps getting harder to classify and separate. The true control decks and the ramp-ish versions keep moving closer together, which pressures the other versions to merge. I've resisted so far, but the term Uro Pile is getting harder and harder to argue against.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
4-C Omnath468.24
Scourge Shadow376.63
Heliod Company376.63
Mono-Red Prowess315.56
BR Midrange315.56
Reclaimer Titan315.56
Tier 2
Hammer Time274.84
Tier 3
Mono-Green Tron183.22
Amulet Titan173.05
Ad Nauseam162.87
Izzet Prowess152.69
Sultai Uro142.51
Death and Taxes142.51
Dredge142.51
Crab Mill142.51
Oops, All Spells132.33
Belcher122.15
Storm122.15
Burn111.97
Kiki-Twin101.79
Temur Uro101.79
Ponza91.61
Jund81.43

I meant to bring this up last month and forgot, but Kiki-Twin is a Tier 3 deck. Which is very impressive given its small player base. It turns out that Bolt-Snap-Bolt is still a very powerful line, as is the ability to quickly combo after playing a tempo game. It's not as powerful as true Splinter Twin, but that might be due to lack of polish or metagame woes. Despite everything, it's still a very solid deck. Interesting to note as well, Kiki-Twin is built around Boil, both dodging it and wielding it against 4-C Omnath and Dryad of the Illysian Grove decks. It's not a bad strategy, but fairly ironic that now it's quite soft to Blood Moon, while UR Twin was the Blood Moon deck in Modern for years.

They're Still There

The other thing to note is that 4-Color Omanth is the top deck followed by Scourge Shadow. Again. And also again, they're down from their October heights. This is partially due to the overall population decline and partially due to the metagame gradually adapting to both. Which factor is stronger is impossible to determine. However, the fact that this has been a trend for several months, and reflects earlier examples of Uro decks rising and falling, seems to point to the latter explanation. The question is whether this is what players want, as the method of adaptation appears to be running Blood Moon (as I'll demonstrate below).

Tier 2 Vanishes Again

Once more, there is only a single deck in Tier 2: Hammer Time has done quite well for itself by moving up a tier in a month. However, I wouldn't read too much into that. It's received a lot of attention, which always boosts numbers. The deck is also very well positioned. Much like Infect, Hammer Time wrecks low- or no-interaction decks and runs over slow decks. It suffers greatly against decks with lots of cheap interaction, and those decks have been down recently. Plus, it's able to take advantage of 2020's most consistently good card advantage engine better than most decks. We'll see if it can weather the spotlight, or if the deck is too clunky and anemic when the combo doesn't come together to survive.

As for it being alone, that's just a quirk of the data. December's population being low made the data very skewed and polarized. More of the data is caused by the most invested players, and they're more likely to either play their pet deck or just the best one. This pushes the numbers to either end of the spectrum and away from Tier 2. Therefore, decks that I will argue should be Tier 2 fell outside the bracket. Mono-Red Prowess, Reclaimer Titan, and BR Midrange are just over the line for Tier 1, and Mono-Green Tron is right at the Tier 3 cutoff. In fact, there is a huge gap between Hammer Time and Tron, which I can only chalk up to skewed data. The power rankings back me up.

The Midrange Resurrection

Why do players insist midrange is dead in Uro's world? Every time it looks like Jund is finished, something replaces it. Last month it was Jund Scourge, which was straight Jund but with Scourge of the Skyclaves. This month, it's Rakdos Rock.

Rakdos Rock, Ozymandias17 (MTGO Challenge, 8th Place)

Creatures

4 Magmatic Channeler
3 Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger
4 Bonecrusher Giant
4 Seasoned Pyromancer

Planeswalkers

3 Liliana of the Veil

Enchantments

4 Blood Moon

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
2 Dreadbore

Instants

4 Fatal Push
2 Lightning Bolt

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Polluted Delta
3 Blood Crypt
5 Swamp
3 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Engineered Explosives
2 Nihil Spellbomb
2 Pithing Needle
2 Soul-Guide Lantern
1 Dragon's Claw
1 Dreadbore
2 Kolaghan's Command
2 Boil
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet

And this deck is just Jund but trading flexibility and power for mana consistency. I'm tempted to just keep calling it Jund, because it plays exactly the same way. And I'm going to, because it annoys certain people I like annoying. By dropping green, Jund is giving up flexible removal in Abrupt Decay, Assassin's Trophy, and sideboard Veil of Summer and raw power in Tarmogoyf and Bloodbraid Elf. In exchange, they get to play Blood Moon, which again, is a very good metagame decision. So long as small creature decks are running around, I expect Jund to remain a player, and so long as 4-C Omnath remains on top, I'd expect two-color Jund over three.

It might look like this version came out of nowhere to make Tier 1, but that isn't the case. A lot of the players who played Jund Scourge in November were on Rakdos in December. Plus, Rakdos Rock has been a deck I've been recording, but didn't make the Tier list for months. This is a case of players changing horses rather than a new deck magically appearing.

Power Rankings

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. However, how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. And the practice proved particularly relevant this month, as it backed up a lot of what I've said about Tier 2.

A reminder of how it works: as I go through the Preliminary and Challenge results, I mark each deck’s record or placement respectively. Points are then awarded based on those results. Preliminaries report results based on record, so that’s how the points are distributed. 5-0 is three points, 4-1 is two, and 3-2 is one. Challenges are reported in terms of placing, so being Top 8 is worth three points, Top 16 is two, and being reported at all is one. The system is thus weighted to award more points to decks that perform well in Challenges rather than Preliminaries. The reason is simply that Challenges are larger and more competitive events, and the harder the field, the better a deck needs to be.

The Power Tiers

Just like with population, the point total fell in December. And by a higher percentage (18% vs 21%) thanks to the tiny Preliminaries awarding fewer points. The 558 decks earned a total of 873 points in December. The average points were 12.47, so 13 points makes Tier 3. The STdev was 16.23, meaning Tier 2 began at 30 points and Tier 1 is for 47 points or more. There were 23 decks just like the population tiers, but Jund didn't make the cut on points. In its place is Eldrazi Tron, which in turn just missed the population cutoff.

Deck NameTotal Points% Points
Tier 1
4-C Omnath809.16
Scourge Shadow627.10
Heliod Company525.96
Mono-Red Prowess475.38
Tier 2
BR Midrange455.15
Reclaimer Titan455.15
Hammer Time414.70
Tier 3
Mono-Green Tron283.21
Amulet Titan283.21
Ad Nauseam262.98
Crab Mill252.86
Izzet Prowess232.63
Sultai Uro232.63
Dredge222.52
Oops, All Spells212.40
Storm202.29
Death and Taxes192.18
Belcher192.18
Burn192.18
Temur Uro182.29
Kiki-Twin151.72
Ponza141.60
Eldrazi Tron131.49

Rakdos Rock and Reclaimer fell out of Tier 1 when power is considered. As stated earlier, skewed data artificially shrunk Tier 2, and the power rankings correct some of that drift. On the whole, however, it is striking how similar the power rankings are to population this month. Typically, there's a lot of variation, and decks jump around within their tier, so the lists look very dissimilar. But the most notable change this time around is Crab Mill's jump from Tier 3's basement into upper Tier 3. Tier 3 is always the most volatile tier, and decks move around a lot in there, but this time the upper half is in the same order in both lists other than Crab Mill passing Izzet Prowess.

The Millstone

It makes sense that Crab Mill would do well. The metagame being skewed toward 4-C Omnath and Primeval Titan decks is ripe ground for Mill. Essentially, Mill is just an aggro deck using a different life total. By which I mean library size. The slower the deck, the more vulnerable to Mill's attack it becomes. In many cases, because it helps Mill out by drawing cards. In a more aggro metagame, Mill will suffer. Thanks to Archive Trap and all the Crabs, Mill's best hands are faster kills than the typical aggro deck. However, its average hand is a bit slower, and the attack more easily avoided.

The meta also has much better tools for dealing with Mill than aggro. The gold standard of anti-aggro cards is arguably Timely Reinforcements, as it undoes a huge chunk of damage and board advantage. The Rise of the Eldrazi titans and Gaea's Blessing undo all the damage Mill's done, and most can be run as singletons and still have the maximum effect. Depending on build, Leyline of Sanctity may be unbeatable. Mill will always be around, but I have serious doubts that it will be a serious threat for very long; as soon as it gains too much steam, players can elect to beat it blindfolded.

A Unique Problem

However, the power rankings aren't necessarily the most accurate this time. Going back to what I said at the beginning, the opportunity for decks to earn points was diminished and very unequal. The Challenges had exactly 32 listings as always. However, that also means that they awarded the normal spread of points. The Preliminaries only have 4-0's, meaning no 3 point decks, so the power ranking is necessarily skewed towards decks that perform well in Challenges. Normally, the higher number of Preliminaries balances this natural (and deliberate) bias. This is relevant because the Tier 1 decks from population tend to show up more in Challenges than Preliminaries (particularly 4-C Omnath), and thus they were more easily able to maintain their spots than under normal circumstances. I'll be keeping an eye on this for January.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking total points earned and dividing it by total decks, which measures points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. Using the power rankings certainly helps, and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is.

However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, where low averages result from mediocre performances and high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. So be careful about reading too much into the results.

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far-off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The further away the greater the deviation from average, the more a deck under- or over-performs. On the low end, the deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite.

Deck NameAverage PointsPower Tier
Eldrazi Tron1.863
Temur Uro1.803
Crab Mill1.793
4-C Omnath1.741
Burn1.733
Scourge Shadow1.681
Storm1.673
Amulet Titan1.653
Sultai Uro1.643
Ad Nauseam1.633
Oops, All Spells1.623
Belcher1.583
Dredge1.573
Mono-Green Tron1.563
Ponza1.563
Baseline1.54
Izzet Prowess1.533
Mono-Red Prowess1.521
Hammer Time1.522
Kiki-Twin1.503
BR Midrange1.452
Reclaimer Titan1.452
Heliod Company1.401
Death and Taxes1.363
Jund1.25-

As always, the lower-tiered decks did better in the average ranking thanks to few results spreading out the good results. It might look like a lot more decks did above averagely than normal in December. However, a lot of this is again due to the low turnout. The baseline is the lowest it's ever been at 1.54. The average of the previous months is 1.65, and that obviously changes how I see this data. That 4-C Omnath and decks that prey on it (Crab Mill specifically) are overperforming is beyond dispute. However, how many other decks are overperforming is a greater question.

The Metagame Evolves

There was quite a bit of change over the first five months of the Metagame Update's return. Rakdos Prowess was consistently Tier 1, but nothing else held that distinction. Uro decks have changed significantly, though it's my observation that the rate of change is slowing. However, it's a new year now, and there are more sets incoming to shake things up. We'll all have to see how Kaldheim affects Modern starting next week.

On Bitcoin and Magic

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Remember in late 2017 and early 2018, when Bitcoin spiked to a then all-time high and Reserved List cards followed suit? Many members of the Magic community speculated that the two were connected and that those savvy enough to cash out of Bitcoin and turn a hefty profit were reinvesting those proceeds into Magic cards.

Well, if you haven’t noticed, Bitcoin has recently surged a new all-time high. It is approaching $35,000, almost double its 2017/2018 peak. This is likely to generate some ripples in the MTG finance market.

Correlating Bitcoin and Magic

Bitcoin and Magic have an overlapping history, in a roundabout way. In 2013 and 2014, a website known as Mt. Gox was handling over 70% of all Bitcoin transactions worldwide. At the time, this made the site the largest intermediary for Bitcoin exchange. Then the majority of Bitcoin on the site were stolen and Mt. Gox was no more.

But if you go back to 2007, Mt. Gox wasn’t a Bitcoin exchange site. The founder of the website initially created it to track Magic card prices like stocks! In fact, Mt. Gox is short for “Magic: the Gathering Online eXchange.” It was only in 2010 when founder Jed McCaleb converted his website into one for Bitcoin exchange.

Since then, it seems like the demographic that trades in cryptocurrencies appear to overlap with the demographic that participates in the Magic secondary market. Of course, it’s not a direct overlap, but if this were a Venn Diagram, I believe there would be enough overlap to link prices of the two.

Here are a couple charts as evidence. First, consider the price chart of Bitcoin and a Reserved List staple, Mox Diamond from around that time period.

While this is just a single example, there does appear to be a correlation. Shortly after Bitcoin hit $19,800 or so, Mox Diamond spiked, momentarily hitting $400 on buy lists. How about a Dual Land, like Bayou?

Notice how Bayou follows a similar trend. A couple months after Bitcoin surged in late 2017 / early 2018, Bayou (and other Dual Lands) spiked to record highs. Let’s look at one more: City in a Bottle:

Notice the same trend here. As Bitcoin notched its all-time high, the price of City in a Bottle surged to record highs as well.

Prices cooled off throughout 2019 in all of these price charts, including that of Bitcoin. This strengthens my belief that the two are correlated. Accepting this hypothesis, implications are about to be profound as we head into 2021.

2021: Bitcoin at Record Highs

Now we’re sitting at new all-time highs for Bitcoin, significantly above where it traded during its previous peak. Will the correlation between Magic and Bitcoin continue, leading to new highs for Magic prices? I believe this is likely.

In fact, I’ve already seen some moves higher on Card Kingdom’s buylist. Why is this relevant? Because Card Kingdom is highly agile when it comes to pricing—their buy prices on popular cards can fluctuate multiple times in a week (sometimes in a day!). So when prices move, Card Kingdom’s algorithm responds quickly.

I already mentioned Mox Diamond before, but here’s the Trader Tools chart again:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Diamond

Notice how, after dropping for a week or two, the top buy price on this card has been rebounding? That’s because Card Kingdom has increased their buy price on the card a couple of times in the past week or so.

Another card on the move is Elephant Graveyard, where Card Kingdom recently upped their buy price from $140 to $185 to reflect the recent move in its price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elephant Graveyard

Other cards Card Kingdom has recently upped their buy prices for include Gaea's Cradle (up to $510), Lion's Eye Diamond (up to $300), and a smattering of Dual Lands. After pulling back from the recent run, it appears the demand for expensive Reserved List cards has returned with a vengeance. I believe this trend will continue thanks to the recent surge in Bitcoin.

Beyond Bitcoin

Beyond Bitcoin, there are economic dynamics that are conducive to rising asset prices. I discussed this a couple weeks ago, so I won’t go into excess detail here. What I will touch upon here is the newest development from Washington, D.C.: new stimulus checks to Americans.

Starting last weekend, qualifying individuals are receiving $600, plus another $600 per child! A family of four making less than $150,000 annually in total would qualify for a $2400 check. While this is less than the previous stimulus check, it is still a lump of cash in people’s bank accounts. Many Americans are struggling in this pandemic—unfortunately, this money won’t be nearly enough for them to make ends meet.

However, there’s a large portion of people who qualify for this check but hasn’t been as impacted financially by the pandemic. For them, this money is like a little bonus to do with what they please. Some may use the money to pay off debt. Others may use it to fund some house projects. Others, yet, will probably spend the money on Magic cards and other collectibles. It’s inevitable.

Fast forward a couple months, and tax returns will start rolling in. I have no clue what refund checks will look like this year as compared to last year. None at all. But I have to assume at least some folks will receive refund checks, and some portion of that group will use their refunds to fund their hobbies, including Magic. We’ve seen this happen in years past and I don’t see a reason why this wouldn’t happen again in 2021.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Land Tax

Lastly, there’s the hope factor. We made it through a miserable 2020, and 2021 brings a great deal of hope to people across the world. This is the year: the year we can get vaccinated, the year we can go into public again without fear, the year we can feel a little closer to normal, and the year we can [hopefully] start participating in large paper Magic events again.

The stock market is forward-looking; that is, prices trade on anticipated trends and performance. If people maintain hope that 2021 will be better than 2020, then stock prices could react accordingly. In the same, way, Magic prices could trend upwards if people anticipate playing paper Magic at some point in the near future. This is yet another positive catalyst for Magic card prices.

Wrapping It Up

This article may seem overly bullish. It also may appear, on the surface, to be an attempt to drive prices higher in a similar vein as a Rudy (Alpha Investments) video. I assure you, this article is neither. My intention is not to drive buyouts nor to encourage reckless speculation.

Before investing in Magic cards, make sure you have other boxes checked: you don’t have any high-interest rate debt, you have health insurance, you have a 401(k) and/or a Roth IRA, etc. Only once these items are in place do I recommend an alternate investment like Magic.

I also don’t recommend buying out individual cards. This puts huge pressure on the market. If you target a staple, you’re likely going to pay hefty premiums once you finish buying the first dozen or so copies. Paying higher prices is not a productive way to invest. If you target something obscure you can pick up more copies on the cheap, but it is difficult to liquidate 100 copies of a card that only set collectors want to buy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eternal Flame

Instead, I’d make sure you have a list of priority cards in you mind and start checking some off your list little by little. For example, if you’re hoping to acquire a Commander set of Dual Lands (one each), start prioritizing these now rather than waiting for a deal on the Sick Deals Facebook group. I don’t think prices are going to be soft as we work our way through 2021 and if history is any indication, the opposite may be true. Prices may surge to new highs on the backs of stimulus checks, tax refunds, inflation, and newfound profits from Bitcoin.

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