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Insider: Speculation Opportunities Besides Recent Releases

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Magic releases have come rapid-fire over the past few months, and with War of the Spark, Modern Horizons, and even Core Set 2020 making an impact in every Eternal format and being great for Commander, prices are moving. As if all this wasn’t enough, we just started the spoiler season for Commander 2019, and there has already been speculation around what tidbits we know of Throne of Eldraine this fall.

Attention is limited, and as a consequence, it’s easy to miss other trends occurring below the surface with the entirety of the rest of the market. There are some trends I’ve noticed that have nothing to do with these new sets and could present some alternative spec opportunities. Because these trends seem unrelated to recent releases and the trends du jour, in theory, these should be relatively safe and stable specs for the long term.

Collector's Edition

Image result for collector's edition mtgImage result for collector's edition mtg

One example is Collector’s Edition (and the International Edition version) cards, specifically the highest-end cards like the Power Nine. This week the news that these cards would be legal in unsanctioned Old School events at Grand Prix Vegas made it into the news cycle. It’s actually old news as these have been legal in CFB’s Old School events for some time, but the renewed attention combined with MagicFest Vegas looming could drive demand. There’s some indication it already has, with Collector’s Edition Mox Jet showing up on CardKingdom’s hotlist this week.

Collector’s Edition cards seem to be good budget options for the Power Nine or other expensive cards like dual lands. They are an option for anyone who wants to play with them casually, increasingly so if they are being supported at higher-profile unsanctioned events. They are also desirable for the collectors they were designed for - those that want to own a piece of Magic’s history (at a discount). I don’t expect these are due for any major spikes in price, but they seem like a solid long-term spec.

Promo Lands

Image result for apac plains mtg

I’m always checking price movements of cards, and one category I’ve noticed moving over the past few weeks is promo lands. Examples include the various APAC lands,  Arena lands, and even the Guru lands. Basic lands seem like one of the safest and most stable specs available, simply because they transcend formats and metagames, rotations and bannings. They are the basic building blocks of the game, and I think most everyone has felt the urge to play with lands they think look cool.

I don’t think you can really go wrong with any of them, because as time goes on and Magic continues on its current trajectory of growth, demand for these will continue to increase and the supply will slowly dry up, which is what I imagine we are seeing with things like these promos now. Another good option is Alpha and Beta lands, which have seen sustained growth for years. 

Portal Three Kingdoms

Anyone following Magic daily price movements recently may have seen massive spikes on cards from Portal Three Kingdoms. If you do a little digging, you can see these movements aren’t necessarily real, as some of these cards have so few copies for sale to begin with. A few sales or small-scale buyouts can leave only the overpriced copies behind, making it look like the price is far higher than it should be. Still, this is a real sign that these cards are being bought, most at lower prices, yes, but demand is there.

With so few copies in circulation and some of the coolest flavor in Magic, these should have a strong future.

Mountain (176), Magic, Portal Three Kingdoms

The rares, many of which are legendaries with Commander applications, seem like the best targets. Everything down to the commons could potentially be valuable, see Forest Bear actually spiking to $39.99 with TCGplayer showing a copy sold at that price, and a current buylist price of $25 in credit at CardKingdom. I especially like buying in on the lands, which have unique artwork and a cool factor. 

I also believe some of the stigmas against white borders are fading. I’ve even encountered competitive players that prefer them because of their ease of identification while using fetchlands and other tutor effects. 

Vanguard

Image result for vanguard magic

An obscure piece of Magic history is Vanguard, a play variant utilizing special side cards (almost like Commander) that gave you special abilities. I was never exposed to them in paper, but they were a ton of fun to play on Magic Online. I’ve long imagined that they could one day become desirable because of the nostalgia and cool factor, and now I’m starting to see movement on them in price lists.

On one hand, they are bulky oversized cards that are competitively useless, but with unique art depicting some of the most iconic characters in Magic, I suspect there is something to them.

Beyond the collecting factor, I can even imagine people trying to make a format around them for the fun factor. I imagine the biggest driver of demand would be if Wizards ever happened to ever revisit the Vanguard idea. Not likely, but always a possibility. 

Looking Ahead

The classes of cards I covered today have been moving not because of recent releases or new spoilers, but for another reason entirely. This movement seems to be a sign of general health and strength in the overall Magic market. They say a rising tide lifts all ships, and I believe the many high-impact releases of 2019 have brought a vigor that has spilled over to the wider market.

I also believe the effect of Magic Arena can not be understated, and that the increase in the player base it's bringing about is being reflected in these price increases. Magic has experienced an unprecedented amount of time in the broader media, specifically the financial press due to the massive success of Hasbro - much on the back of Magic Arena.

With Wall Street showing such confidence in Hasbro and in turn Magic, it seems like a great time to be betting on Magic, and I believe specs like the ones I shared today do just that.

June ’19 Brew Report, Pt. 2: Aria of Brews

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Picking up where we left off last week, today we'll continue unearthing the new tech found in July's MODO dumps. Let's dive right in!

Cutesy Combos

Combo is alive and well in Modern, and probably always will be. Novel ways to win on turn four are in tall supply since the format's card pool is so deep. First up today is a deck revolving around Solemnity.

Mono-White Solemnity, by DRDUB (5-0)

Creatures

4 Lesser Masticore
4 Safehold Elite
4 Kitchen Finks
4 Thraben Inspector
4 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit

Artifacts

4 Altar of Dementia
4 Blasting Station

Enchantments

4 Solemnity

Instants

2 Faith's Shield
4 Path to Exile

Lands

2 Ghost Quarter
20 Plains
60 Cards

Sideboard

4 Phyrexian Unlife
4 Tormod's Crypt
3 Disenchant
2 Oblivion Ring
2 Pithing Needle

Mono-White Solemnity doesn't go the usual route of using Solemnity with Phyrexian Unlife out of a prison shell, although it does boast that combo out of the sideboard to shut down damage-based decks. In Game 1, it's more interested in going off with persist creatures and a sacrifice outlet: Blasting Station for damage, or Altar of Dementia for mill. When a creature with persist dies while Solemnity is on the battlefield, it returns from the graveyard without a counter, letting pilots sacrifice it an arbitrary number of times.

Altar gives any deck looking for it a generic sac outlet, which enables decks like Mono-White Solemnity that already have access to another. But also giving the deck a big boost is Lesser Manticore, the best persist creature this side of Kitchen Finks. Manticore does a solid Grim Lavamancer impression in longer games against creature decks by gunning down enemy forces. Mono-White Solemnity isn't really looking to play fair, but Manticore gives it some semblance of a plan if it needs to.

Bant Snow, by MAYODOMINARIA (5-0)

Creatures

4 Ice-Fang Coatl

Planeswalkers

2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
4 Narset, Parter of Veils
1 Teferi, Time Raveler

Artifacts

1 Arcum's Astrolabe
1 Teferi's Puzzle Box

Enchantments

1 On Thin Ice
3 Rest in Peace

Instants

2 Cryptic Command
2 Force of Negation
1 Mana Leak
4 Opt
4 Path to Exile
1 Remand
1 Spell Pierce

Sorceries

1 Day's Undoing
2 Supreme Verdict
1 Timely Reinforcements

Lands

1 Breeding Pool
2 Celestial Colonnade
3 Field of Ruin
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
2 Misty Rainforest
1 Prismatic Vista
1 Snow-Covered Forest
6 Snow-Covered Island
1 Snow-Covered Plains
1 Temple Garden

Sideboard

1 Timely Reinforcements
1 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Celestial Purge
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Dovin's Veto
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Lyra Dawnbringer
1 Monastery Mentor
1 Ramunap Excavator
1 Restoration Angel
1 Snapcaster Mage
2 Spell Queller
1 Vendilion Clique

Bant Snow is a deck I brewed up myself some weeks ago, and focusing on the same combo: Teferi or Narset with Day's Undoing. This deck adds some extra tech, chief of all moving the Rest in Peaces to the mainboard. Opt is given the nod over Noble Hierarch, and more expensive cards are added, from Jace, the Mind Sculptor to the miser's Teferi's Puzzle Box.

I feel that most of these fixes make the deck slower in the name of consistency that isn't necessarily needed. But I do like maining Rest in Peace in this climate.

New Takes

Some existing decks have also seen fresh updates lately.

Bridgeless Hogaak, by DOUGH_SHACK (5-0)

Creatures

4 Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis
4 Bloodghast
4 Carrion Feeder
4 Cryptbreaker
4 Gravecrawler
4 Hedron Crab
4 Prized Amalgam
4 Stitcher's Supplier
4 Vengevine

Instants

1 Fatal Push

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting

Lands

2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Marsh Flats
4 Polluted Delta
2 Swamp
2 Verdant Catacombs
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

3 Fatal Push
1 Godless Shrine
1 Shenanigans
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Thoughtseize
4 Wear // Tear

This is just the first Bridgeless Hoggak list that appeared online after the banning, but the deck has by now proven itself a significant force in Modern even without the infamous enchantment. Hedron Crab seems to have been mostly abandoned.

Echo Urza, by FTZZ (5-0)

Creatures

4 Riddlesmith
4 Urza, Lord High Artificer
1 Sai, Master Thopterist
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Planeswalkers

1 Saheeli, Sublime Artificer

Artifacts

4 Chalice of the Void
4 Engineered Explosives
4 Everflowing Chalice
2 Grinding Station
4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal
2 Tormod's Crypt

Enchantments

1 Mirrodin Besieged

Sorceries

4 Echo of Eons

Lands

1 Cavern of Souls
4 Darksteel Citadel
1 Fiery Islet
1 Geier Reach Sanitarium
1 Gemstone Caverns
2 Shivan Reef
3 Snow-Covered Island
4 Spire of Industry

Sideboard

2 Tormod's Crypt
1 Abrade
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Arc Trail
1 Ghirapur Aether Grid
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Karn, Scion of Urza
1 Narset, Parter of Veils
1 Negate
1 Ray of Revelation
2 Teferi, Time Raveler
1 Welding Jar
1 Whipflare

Echo Urza isn't as much a new take on the Urza, Lord High Artificer decks we've seen at the top tables as a new strategy entirely. It revolves around Riddlesmith, a first-time-in-Modern creature that loots through the deck as pilots deploy artifacts. Crucially, this looting function dumps Echo of Eons into the graveyard so pilots can flash it back. Activating the shiny new Timetwister lets players refill on artifacts to cheaply deploy, keeping the cycle going and looting through the deck.

Simian Spirit Guide greases the wheels here, shortening the clock by resolving a payoff early. Saheeli and Sai are also here as legendary ways to benefit from playing many artifacts in a row.

Seeing Red

Burn may have dominated for much of Modern's history, but now the format is home to a variety of red-based aggro decks, including Skred and Goblins. New ones also continue to poke their heads out of the woodwork.

Rakdos Arcanist, by CHARKATTACK (5-0)

Creatures

4 Dreadhorde Arcanist
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Seasoned Pyromancer
4 Lightning Skelemental
2 Gurmag Angler
1 Goblin Bushwhacker
1 Hazoret the Fervent

Instants

1 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Rakdos Charm

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
2 Reckless Charge
4 Thoughtseize
4 Unearth

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Polluted Delta
1 Prismatic Vista
2 Snow-Covered Mountain
3 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Sunbaked Canyon
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Collective Brutality
3 Fatal Push
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Magmatic Sinkhole
3 Ravenous Trap
1 Smash to Smithereens

Rakdos Arcanist runs none other than Unearth alongside Dreadhorde Arcanist, recreating a new combo we explored in detail last week. But there are no Elemental synergies here, despite there being plenty of the creature type in the deck between Lightning Skelemental and Seasoned Pyromancer's tokens. Instead, Gurmag Angler makes a rare appearance outside of Grixis Shadow and Hollow One as raw bulk available as early as turn two. Hazoret can't resolve until later, but defeats many decks single-handedly when it does.

Big Phoenix, by PIEGONTI (5-0)

Creatures

4 Arclight Phoenix
4 Bedlam Reveler
4 Seasoned Pyromancer

Enchantments

3 Aria of Flame

Instants

4 Desperate Ritual
2 Gut Shot
3 Lava Dart
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Manamorphose
2 Pyretic Ritual
1 Surgical Extraction

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
2 Tormenting Voice

Lands

15 Mountain
4 Sunbaked Canyon

Sideboard

2 Abrade
2 Blood Moon
2 Dragon's Claw
2 Kozilek's Return
2 Lightning Axe
4 Ravenous Trap
1 Shatterstorm

Mono-Red Phoenix evokes blazing starts, powered either by the deck's namesake bird or by 1/2s with prowess. Both Monastery Swiftspear and Soul-Scar Mage are absent from Big Phoenix, the latest spin on the strategy. Card quality is prioritized here over speed, and the non-Phoenix threats serve to refill pilots on cards once they've become low on resources. Mono-Red runs ritual spells to power out its creatures early and improve the synergy with Phoenix, which was perhaps shaky in the prowess builds, decks fundamentally split between two gameplans. Having rituals improves Blood Moon out of the side.

A Grave Future

With Hogaak again rising in Modern, the future is uncertain. Will the deck continue to prove oppressive? How many new decks will break out in the coming months? Let me know your thoughts in the comments. And if you have a lead on any promising tech!

Rotating Cards Part 2: Rivals of Ixalan

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If you grew up in the '80s or '90s, surely you recognized the sights and scenes from the Ixalan block. It is seemingly where Indiana Jones and Jurassic Park collided to create a Mesoamerican-plane where our adventurous appetites can feast.

The Ixalan block ultimately only served the purpose of progressing the Gatewatch story arc, so, unfortunately, we did not get much insight into the dinosaurs or tribes that inhabit the plane. We also did not get much backstory on new characters we met from Ixalan such as Huatli, Warrior Poet and Angrath, the Flame-Chained.

When it was all said and done, I found myself wondering about the history of Magic's dinosaurs, pirates, Huatli's tribe, and Angrath. I can't help but think others may have similar questions and, hopefully, Wizards of the Coast plans to use Ixalan again in a future set.

One of the best things about the Ixalan block is the way the art on the cards depicts the plane. The setting of Ixalan is shown extremely well through the card art to the point where even the faintest imagination could find itself immersed in thoughts.

Additionally, Ixalan was a boon for EDH players. For many reasons, the Ixalan block goes down in my book as the first set to be clearly designed with a heavy dose of Commander in its blood. When looking back at Ixalan's predecessors and then looking forward to its kin, it seems to me that Ixalan was a testing ground for Wizards to create a lot of new cards for Standard while also appealing to the Commander crowd.

Since Ixalan was printed, we have had several Standard sets all with EDH in mind, not to mention Modern Horizons which the MTG community affectionately renamed to "EDHorizons".

All of this EDH love has given me plenty to write about lately. As you may know, last week I evaluated post-rotation Commander cards from Ixalan. This week, I'll be focusing on the second set of the block, Rivals of Ixalan.

The Watch List

There are few ways to get me more excited for a card in EDH than it being a cheaply-costed artifact that enables card-cycling with upside. Enter: Azor's Gateway.

While the card doesn't see much play in Commander to date, it's a card I find exciting to build around and a darn good payoff when it gets transformed. This isn't an urgent card to acquire by any means. I suspect the price should stay low beyond rotation (especially non-foils), but it's a card worth monitoring and adding to your watchlist (especially if you'll play with it eventually).

The reason I am adding it to my watch list is purely based on potential. The "exile" clause specifically piques my interest; if we were ever to get a Commander that enables casting cards from exile, Azor's Gateway would instantly become an engine in that deck.

Furthermore, Azor's Gateway is already garnering a small amount of attention because of Atemsis, All-Seeing. While Atemsis isn't enough to push the price up by itself, it will be enough to raise the floor slightly.

Investment Plan - I

I am keeping a particularly close eye on foils of Azor's Gateway, though I like copies of the non-foil as well. I just think the art is great and the foil looks amazing, but being that this is a flip card with Ixalan flavor, it should be fairly difficult to reprint (aside from maybe a "Return to Ixalan" promo set of some sort).

I'm targeting a price-point on NM foils at $6 and I like LP foils at $5 (I may actually grab one this weekend at GenCon if I find either condition at this price). If you like non-foils because flip cards with Ixalan flavor are going to be hard to reprint, I would suggest picking up copies at or under $1.50.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Timestream Navigator

Did you say "taking turns"?

Timestream Navigator is such an intriguing card primarily because of the combo potential its ability offers - yes, you'd have to give it haste and that is likely Magical Christmasland, but it is interesting to brew around nonetheless. It is also a mythic and a relevant creature type - pirate - so any additional tribal support for them could make this card's price climb.

I've been trapped by purchasing copies of "taking turns" cards before, so this one isn't coming as a card I highly recommend, but add it to your watchlist and you can do worse than grabbing a couple foil copies at bulk pricing in hopes for its day in the sun.

Investment Plan - II

For Timestream Navigator, I'm hoping to get 1-2 foils if they get under $3. Rotation isn't going to be much of a factor for Navigator, but I am banking on a little supply coming into the market and pushing prices down just a touch more. I am more or less staying away from non-foils, though it's not a terrible card to grab if you can find any in bulk mythic bins.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Path of Discovery

Draw power in green has become increasingly available since Path of Discovery was printed. We also received Guardian Project in Ravnica Allegiance, and collectively these two cards create a nice package for green decks running a good number of creatures (roughly 22-25 to be really effective).

Path of Discovery foils are already thin in supply and the non-foil has quietly crept up to $1.50+. Some of this could be from fringe Standard play which makes it the perfect card to watch heading into rotation. If the prices plummet by 25-50%, these will make for a fine long-term acquisition.

Investment Plan - III

I will be watching Path of Discovery closely for about 4-8 weeks after rotation to see how its prices respond. If the card shows any sign of price weakness, I will likely hold off and wait until it bottoms out just above bulk pricing (figure sub-$1 non-foil and sub-$3 foil). It could very well be that the current $1.50 / $4 splits on non-foils and foils is as cheap as this card will be (barring reprint).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Warkite Marauder

Interestingly enough, over the past two weeks covering the Ixalan block, I've mentioned three different pirates I'm adding to my watchlist. Perhaps I need to build a pirate-tribal deck in the near-future and this has been my subconscious just pushing that idea further on me. Regardless, Warkite Marauder is a really fun card in casual play - it is by no means a powerful or broken card, but its triggered ability on attack can be extremely effective in helping break through an opponent's defenses.

Investment Plan - IV

Warkite Marauder is a true penny stock and can be had in bulk pricing for both non-foils and foils. I am considering adding a couple of copies to my inventory and one for personal use in anticipation of building an eventual pirate-tribal deck. This card won't be dropping further at rotation, so I'd only really be considering Warkite Marauder if you think pirates will get more support in the future. I, for one, hope they do!

The Primals

The four Dinos captioned above are some of my favorite cards ever printed. I loved dinosaurs as a kid, so this block appealed to my nostalgia for those reasons. I think Zacama will especially make for a great long-term speculative pick, but first, I believe these have room to fall further at rotation.

Starting with the biggest dinosaur of them all - Zacama, Primal Calamity - I have found Zacama to be an incredibly price-resistant card. I've been watching this card literally since it was spoiled and the price has done nothing but go up. In full transparency, I have needed a copy for my Gishath, Sun's Avatar deck for about nine months now and still haven't bought one because I am unwilling to pay $8-10 for it.

I'm waiting a little longer for rotation now hoping that copies of Zacama will find their way out of binders and into the hands of vendors. It's seen a fringe amount of Standard play and it doubles down as an incredible finisher in EDH decks that use Omniscience or Nahiri, the Harbinger. Knowing this, it is unlikely Standard will dent its price much but I have started to see signs of it decreasing recently. In fact, just this week while continuing my research did I notice it is sub-$10 now (first time that's ever been the case from what I can recall).

Rounding out the big four Primals on my watchlist are Ghalta, Primal Hunger, Etali, Primal Storm, and Nezahal, Primal Tide. All three of these see quite a bit of play in EDH already. For Ghalta and Etali, that play is mostly attributed to Dino tribal whereas Nezahal actually carved out its own niche elsewhere in various blue strategies.

I love acquiring small quantities of foils for all three of these once rotation hits. Dinosaurs actually see play in the current Standard meta, so rotation might impact them more significantly than previously mentioned cards. I also need to remind you that Ghalta, Primal Hunger and Etali, Primal Storm have promo prints which will significantly cap their upside.

That said, if you need copies or want to speculate, I would target the Game Day Promo for Ghalta at $4 post-rotation (NM if possible) and regular pack foils of Nezahal and Etali at $4 and $5 respectively (as an aside, have you seen Nezahal and Etali in foil!? They are stunning!).

It is worth mentioning Zetalpa, Primal Dawn and Tetzimoc, Primal Death as legendaries from the same cycle, though I don't have as much interest in picking these up, save for maybe one foil for my own collection. They became a bit more appealing because Morophon, the Boundless's printing made five-color Dinos possible, but not enough to dive into unless Dinos receive newfound support down the road.

Investment Plan - V

If Zacama, Primal Calamity hits $5-6 I can confidentially say I will be buying more than just the one copy I need. Given the various applications and existing playability in EDH, I predict in as little as six months from rotation Zacama, Primal Calamity non-foils will be back to $10+.

Nezahal, Primal Tide appears to be the most undervalued card of this cycle, given its capabilities in multiple different strategies. I think Nezahal's price could climb into the $6-8 range within 6-12 months. Conversely, I think Ghalta, Primal Hunger and Etali, Primal Storm will be slower gainers. However, I think the Game Day Promo Ghalta and pack foil Etali will still appreciate some because of their aesthetics.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Immortal Sun

The artifact we were all searching for in Ixalan is also the card I'll be searching for the most after rotation. The Immortal Sun has done nothing but climb since it was initially printed. If you were in on copies during the first few weeks of Rivals being on the market you've likely done very well. Similarly, if you rode the wave of hype when War of the Spark was first announced, you know non-foil copies were selling for as much as $30 at its peak.

Fortunately for us, the hype has faded, and with it so has the price. The Immortal Sun now sells for sub-$15 and dropping. The foils have held onto their $30+ price tag because of the existing presence Sun has in EDH and on various sideboards in Standard, Legacy, and Vintage.

That said, rotation will hit this card as hard as any from the entire Rivals of Ixalan set. I firmly believe that this is going to go to sub-$10 before longer-term ascending back to a mid-teens price-point. The card is simply too flexible and too good not to ultimately be a $15 card (until reprint). Be careful here, as the supply that is going to exit binders here in the next two months will flood the market first (we're already seeing it happen).

Investment Plan - VI

With The Immortal Sun, be patient in acquiring your copies. Add it to your watchlist and wait until the prices completely bottom out. Buylists are already soft on the card which indicates to me the demand has decreased significantly. The Standard meta already shifted away from The Immortal Sun being relevant, so copies have likely already been traded in as players open up their cash flows anticipating Throne of Eldraine. We'll see more of this happen before the bottom finally arrives, but when it does be ready to pick copies up for a long-term climb.

I am aiming very low - maybe it never even gets to these prices - but I'm thinking $6-8 for non-foils and $15-20 for foils. I estimate that within 6-12 months from rotation it will climb back to $15 for non-foils and $30 for foils. Be prepared for rotation and make sure to get your copies when they are cheap!

Wrapping Up

Ixalan is a really cool block that went under the radar for the most part, but it gave us plenty of fantastic role players and it added support for two new tribes to EDH (Dinos and Pirates).

Additionally, it is a new plane that we may get to visit again someday, so for those into MTG lore, let's definitely stay tuned to this. I am hopeful to learn more about what "Primal" means to Ixalan; why there are Dinosaurs in the first place; and why a card called Star of Extinction was printed but not explained in the storyline of Ixalan at all? If you have feedback on any of these questions, please reach out! I'd love to know what I might have missed on the lore side of the story.

This concludes my coverage of the Ixalan block as we approach rotation. Bear in mind that all cards I mentioned are purely for your consideration in an attempt to keep the game as cheap as possible. I am sure I missed some cards on my watchlists, so please feel free to reach out and let me know what I got wrong, right, or simply omitted. Find me on Twitter @ChiStyleGaming or on the QS Discord.

Until next time, cheers!

Insider: QS Cast #129 – Eldraine, and all the News! [Unlocked]

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If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • QS Writer and fellow co-host Chris Martin joins the cast!
  • ALL  the news from the past 2 weeks! Eldraine, Historic, Mythic Champ IV, Commander 2019, SDCC Promos and more!
  • Insider Questions!
  • Cards to Consider!

 

*This Podcast was Recorded on 07/29/2019 for QS Insiders. We unlocked this earlier than normal! If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Insider: QS Cast #128 – Core 2020 and MTG Arena Influence [Unlocked]

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the QS Cast 2019! Our co-hosts Chaz and Tarkan explore the financial aspect of Magic the Gathering – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Efren and Stu join the cast!
  • Is this our first legitimate case study for MTG Arena effecting paper pricing?
  • Insider Questions!
  • Where is money being spent, if any?

 

*This Podcast was Recorded on 07/07/2019 for QS Insiders. If you want live recording sessions and up to date postings before anywhere check out the QS Insider Discord!

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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That Which is Not Dead: MC Weekend

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For the first time in quite a while, I have a massive data dump to analyze! The past weekend contained a Modern GP, an SCG Open, and the Mythic Championship. With all the shocks finally wearing off, we can start to get a handle on the new metagame. But not without first noting that this is just the first weekend of data. Metagame formation is a process of players adapting to data as it trickles in, so today's snapshot should be regarded as a starting point rather than the actual metagame.

Additionally, the starting population for each event matters significantly. The Mythic Champtionship is an invitational event with a small population of high-level players who often play team decks. Almost all of Team ChannelFireball and the MPL was on Hogaak, an observation neither random nor necessarily indicative of anything other than player preference. GP Barcelona would normally have been a random sample, but this time it was flooded by players scrubbing out of the Mythic Championship. As a result, the data will be distorted to some degree. The SCG Open and associated Classic results should therefore be given greater weight, since they are the most random and therefore statistically valid results.

MC Barcelona

As it was the most high-profile event, I'll start with the Mythic Championship. As its data is also the most skewed, I'll be treating it lightly. As mentioned, team-think and word of mouth heavily influence deck decisions at this level. There's also the impact of the draft portion. Luis Scott-Vargas only managed two match wins with Hogaak, but still made Day 2 thanks to his draft record. His luck didn't improve. Thus, any player's final placing is not necessarily indicative of their Modern deck's strength.

Top Performers

As a result, I'm discounting the Top 8, and will instead focus on only those decks that earned at least 24 points. It should be noted that Thoralf Severin, the winner of Mythic Championship IV who was playing Tron, is not in this data set. In fact, of the Top 8, only Zhiyang Zhang on Jund and Martin MĂĽller on Hogaak received at least 24 points in constructed. The draft bias is very strong in this event.

Deck NameTotal #
Hogaak9
Hogaak Dredge2
UW Control2
Jund2
UrzaSword2
Mono-Green Tron1
Humans1
Izzet Phoenix1

That is an overwhelming amount of Hogaak. The picture gets worse if you consider the Dredge version just a variant rather than a separate deck. Over half the top decks contained Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis. It certainly looks like the banning of Bridge from Below has not actually released us from the rearisen menace. However, there are caveats. Look beyond the deck title and there is a lot of very high-level talent playing Hogaak, including PVDDR and Reid Duke. I have a hard time believing they wouldn't have done similarly well with another deck. Again, the effect of teams picking the same deck is strong here. Hogaak's prevalence is driving most of the discussion of Modern's metagame as a result, so that's what I will be focusing on today.

Overall Win Percentage

Trying to look at the wider picture muddies the picture further. If you look at the overall win percentages, Hogaak is doing far better than any other well represented deck. It gets even better if you lump the various versions of Hogaak together. This would serve to justify the implication from above that Hogaak is an overperforming deck. However, that assessment is complicated by the starting population. Hogaak was the most popular deck Day 1. It held roughly the same proportion of the field on Day 2. In fact, the overall metagame really didn't change over the tournament. This makes the win percentage numbers somewhat suspect.

Consider this thought experiment. At a Grand Prix, there is a metagame made of three decks: A, B, and C. Deck A beats B 75% of the time, and C 25%. The mirror is 50%. At this GP, A forms 50% of the field, B forms 20%, and C forms 30%. The expected win rate at such a tournament for deck A would be around 48%. If in practice, deck A hit the mirror seven rounds, B three times, and C five, the average win rate would be 47%. If instead it saw B five and C three, the win rate would be 53%. The prevalence of mirror matches skews the data towards the center. This tends to mask the actual strength or weakness of a deck in the actual metagame. Thus, I argue it's not necessarily accurate to say that Hogaak overperformed given it's starting prevalence.

The bottom line is that Hogaak did very well in the constructed portion of MC Barcelona. It should have done well, considering the quantity and quality of players that were running it, regardless of its actual metagame strength. Therefore, I wouldn't draw any conclusions from this chunk of data due to the various biases. As part of a wider context, it may have greater meaning by reinforcing other, more valid data...

GP Barcelona

...such as the Grand Prix that was run parallel to the Mythic Championship. Normally, GP's are the best data source since they're large, open tournaments, giving a very large and random starting population, which is critical for validity. The Barcelona results need to be taken with a grain of salt because it did receive an influx of players from the MC, and thus received some of the bias from that event. I don't expect it was enough to completely swing the results, but it still needs to be acknowledged.

Top 8

Unfortunately, being run in parallel to the MC means that the GP wasn't as well covered. Looking at the Top 8 is not enough data to really mean anything. However, that small set does have a very interesting parallel to the MC, which suggests that all is not what it seems given the data.

Deck NameTotal # in MC Top 8Total # in GP Top 8
Jund22
UrzaSword11
Eldrazi Tron11
Hogaak11
Hardened Scales10
Mono-Red Phoenix10
Mono-Green Tron10
Humans01
Izzet Phoenix01
Esper Control01

Hogaak is just part of the crowd in both Top 8's, and in fact neither one made it past the quarterfinals. Meanwhile, Jund is the best performing deck by Top 8 appearance and won the GP. Hogaak didn't win anything last weekend. If this was the only data to work with, the conclusion would be that Hogaak was just another deck and there's nothing really to see here. Instead, the focus would be on Jund's return to viability after disappearing for over a year. Of course, there's insufficient data to make such a declaration, but the point remains that the GP's final result appears at odds with the MC's data while agreeing with the (biased) Top 8.

Looking further into the GP's Top 16 verifies the (suspect) conclusions from the Top 8. There's no Hogaak in there. There's no Jund, either. Instead, there's Bogles and Neoform combo alongside some more standard decks. This doesn't look like a Hogaak-defined and -dominated metagame. It looks like players just running their normal decks, especially considering there's not a particularly heavy concentration of graveyard hate in the decklists. If the doomsaying was correct, then the lack of hate would have let Hogaak overrun the GP. That it didn't happen is instructive.

Day 2 Metagame

Digging more into the GP would tend to confirm that assessment. Going by the Day 2 metagame, Hogaak underperformed. It was the most popular individual deck by a decent margin (16.7% vs Eldrazi Tron's 11.1%). For being the largest single piece of the metagame, Hogaak didn't convert accordingly. Jund on the other hand started out at only 6.5% but took two slots. Once again, this pushes against the apparent absurd strength of the deck observed by the MC's constructed standings.

SCG Columbus

This brings me to the most random and therefore valid of the events, the SCG Columbus Open. This event, and its associated Modern Classic, are the best indications of last weekend's metagame because they're the least affected by the bias caused by the MC. It should be noted right off the bat that Mono-Green Tron won the Open, just like the MC. Forget Hogaak's numbers; the real story seems to be Tron winning everything.

Top 21

Since there were 21 decks with at least 24 points in my MC Barcelona sample, I'll look at the Top 21 decks from Columbus, too.

Deck TitleTotal #
Hogaak 6
Mono-Green Tron2
Izzet Phoenix2
Grixis Urza2
Humans2
Eldrazi Tron2
Counters Company1
Breachshift1
Gruul Phoenix1
Amulet Titan1
Mono-Red Phoenix1

This table looks surprisingly similar to the top decks from MC Barcelona and a reversal of the GP results. Hogaak is outstripping the field by a decent, though reduced, margin. Everything else is clustered together. The composition is also more varied, though that's not necessarily surprising; pro players tend to gravitate towards known decks where enthusiasts actually create new and interesting decks.

In a further deviation, there's no Jund in this sample. This is shocking considering that it was the fourth most popular deck Day 2. Just like in Barcelona, Hogaak was the most popular individual deck in Columbus, though not by a wide margin. Given its Top 21 numbers, the result would support the Hogaak-as-overperforming narrative, suggesting that it is warping and defining Modern.

However, looking through the decklists convolutes this take. The amount of graveyard hate among the Top 21 decks varies wildly, to the point that there's no real pattern. The winning Tron deck has maindeck Relic of Progenitus and sideboard Leyline of the Void. Fourth place Izzet Phoenix has no graveyard hate. The sixth place Tron has the same maindeck as first place, but only one Grafdigger's Cage and a Tormod's Crypt in the sideboard. The 15th place Eldrazi Tron deck has Leyline of the Void, Grafdigger's Cage, and Tormod's Crypt in its sideboard. The relative success of each non-Hogaak deck doesn't appear to have been influenced by how prepared they were for Hogaak.

The Classic Asterisk

Looking at the parallel event tends to back up this assessment. In another reversal, the Classic data agrees with that of the GP.

Deck TitleTotal #
Four-Color Urza2
Jund2
Gruul Phoenix2
Hogaak2
Amulet Titan1
Humans1
Mono-Green Tron1
Dredge1
Merfolk1
UW Spirits1
UW Control1
Eldrazi Tron1

Again, Hogaak is a good deck, but it's not an exceptional deck; just part of the pack. More than that, Hogaak didn't even Top 8, finishing 14th and 15th. That's not a great result for the supposedly metagame defining deck. Also again, there's not a particularly high amount of hate amongst the decks. Other than Hogaak itself, this appears to be very normal metagame. This just doesn't mesh with the notion that Hogaak is crushing Modern.

A Lingering Question

The implication of the Open and MC are that Hogaak is a busted deck that easily plows through hate, of which there was a particularly high concentration at the Mythic Championship. This is a strong argument that the problem that the last ban was meant to fix hasn't been fixed, Modern is still unhealthy, and another ban is necessary. Conversely, the Classic and GP indicate that it's just another deck in Modern. There wasn't a particularly high amount of hate in the observed data and Hogaak didn't do particularly well. Also worth noting, it was Tron, not Hogaak, that was the big winner of the weekend, with two trophies to none. The results all appear to contradict themselves, and that makes drawing any conclusions a dicey proposition.

Meaning Obscured

I suspect that the actual truth is that the contradiction itself is true: Hogaak is a very powerful deck that will either dominate a tournament or have no real impact. I have a theory about why that is, but I'm still gathering data to verify my thinking. I'll discuss it in detail next week. In the meantime, I've always said that graveyard hate is underplayed in Modern. Regardless of the actual threat of Hogaak, don't skimp.

The Grinder’s Guide to Tournament Finance

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A surprising amount of MTG finance plays out on tournament floors. Between StarCityGames Opens and Grand Prix/MagicFests, these massive tournaments often wind up driving prices as much as or more than new set releases. Pro Tours/Mythic Championships are a different animal entirely; often dictating the course of the entire associated constructed format for weeks or months to come.

The Easy Stuff

Pro Tour finance tends to be very straightforward. A card that has a strong showing on camera will likely see a price increase. The order of magnitude is determined by how vast the difference is between the old perception of the card and the new perception of the card. A bulk mythic that turns into a 4-of in the best deck will see a massive price increase.

A more obviously powerful mythic like Teferi, Hero of Dominaria will see a smaller increase. Pro Tour finance is very intuitive, and stories of individuals buying numerous copies of a breakout card for a massive discount are common.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

The Aggressively-Not-Easy Stuff

SCG Opens and MagicFests are far messier. Most competitors at these events are trying to mitigate their losses/maximize their gains, and don’t know the best way to do it. I get asked all kinds of questions at these events about blink-and-you’ll-miss it finance plays. “Should I sell my entire Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis deck to a vendor after the event?” “What’s the best way to convert prize tickets to cash?” “Should I buylist my Wrenn and Sixes for $62 per (MF Detroit buylist price) and hope to buy in cheaper in two months?” These are just a few examples, but they illustrate a similar picture: there are few or no common-knowledge heuristics for buying and selling cards at large Magic tournaments.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wrenn and Six

Have Tickies, Want Monies

The easiest method to develop a heuristic for is converting prize tickets to cash. Unlike other MTG finance decisions, this one tends to change very infrequently. Aside from a few small deviations, prize ticket values and prizes are usually very similar from tournament to tournament. It can certainly be overwhelming to walk up to the prize booth and be met with over a hundred different methods of spending your prize tickets. Typically, most of these can be ignored if cash is your primary concern.

The most common valuable conversions are current set booster boxes, oversized cards, and uncut sheets. The latter two options are very rare items that can usually be sold for a higher rate than the normal ticket to booster pack conversion. In the past, I often saw complete sets being slightly undervalued by SCG’s prize wall, but they seem to price them more appropriately these days. I would still recommend calculating how many booster packs a complete set would cost you and compare that with how much you can sell it for on eBay if you’re willing to put in the work. Keep in mind that you’ll lose 10-15% of that eBay number to fees and shipping costs.

Current set booster boxes are easy to convert to cash. Just undercut Amazon/eBay in your local Magic Facebook group and a buyer will materialize. Undercut it by $5 if it’s a popular set, or by $10-$15 if it’s an unpopular one.

Going Big

Oversized cards and uncut sheets are much harder to sell, because the market is very niche and they are bulky and fragile, making them difficult to ship. With oversized cards, don’t even bother unless it’s a more iconic card that people will want, but there is a sweet spot. MagicFest Detroit had a sweet Japanese alternate art Narset, Parter of Veils as an oversized option, but it cost as many tickets as two oversized Lightning Bolts.

I doubt the monetary conversion would work out favorably there. Uncut sheets tend to be much more of a slam dunk because the demand for any uncut sheet is going to be higher than the demand for an oversized Glorybringer. The cardinal rule for uncut sheets is to treat them like they’re stolen paintings from the Louvre. They’re extremely fragile and easy to damage, and if you let that happen to yours, you’re going to feel like an idiot. Don’t bother with eBay on these; take them to one of the associated Facebook groups. The market there is stronger and the fees are lower or non-existent.

Let's Lay Down Some Ground Rules

An important rule to keep in mind when converting your tickets is to think about any purchases you might be making in the next few months. If you’d be spending cash to buy two boxes of sleeves in the next 3 months, you should absolutely save yourself the cash and snap those up now for tickets. Same goes for cardboard. Is there a new staple that you need for your deck? Grab store credit and save yourself the cash.

Our other frequent tournament questions are more contextual. We’ll stick to my two golden rules of MTGFinance for these:

  1. Lock in surplus value as soon as possible.
  2. Cut your losses as soon as possible.

Two rules.

These rules paint a very risk-averse portrait of me. This is an accurate portrayal. I’ll take some stupid risks sometimes for funsies, but most people would rather my advice make them some money rather than give them a stack of Sundial of the Infinites.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sundial of the Infinite

Example Time!

An example of Rule 1: Did you buy your Wrenn and Sixes when they were $25? If so, go ahead and buylist them for $62 and lock in that value. Don’t expect them to randomly tank in value unless you like to gamble, so if you need some of those to play with, hold onto them.

An example of Rule 2: Go ahead and sell your Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis deck. This question was asked to me pre-banning at SCG Pittsburgh, and even now that the deck is coming back to the forefront of Modern, I still think selling was correct. Lots of the deck’s staple cards have gone down in price since then, so much so that if you still needed them you could have bought them back with your buylist bucks now.

Can you imagine how much of a slam dunk it would have been if Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis was banned as well? Or Vengevine? Don’t get greedy. If you care about money enough to consider buylisting the deck, you should buylist the deck. You may lose some amount of money depending on at what point you bought in, but if you wait a week to try and sell the cards online to an apprehensive market and get gut-punched by the banned and restricted announcement, you’re going to feel foolish.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vengevine

Thank You For Reading!

If you try and apply these rules first and foremost to your MTG finance decisions on the tournament floor, you’ll find yourself more frequently in the situation of being able to buy card for the next tier 1 deck. More importantly, you'll less frequently be in the situation of leaving your banned deck in a deckbox on your kitchen table for 14 months until Survival of the Fittest gets unbanned in Legacy and spikes your Vengevines again. Thanks for reading, follow me on Twitter, flame me on MTGO, etc, etc.

Magic Finance is NOT Magic

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MTG Finance ruined Magic for me.

This is a bold statement to kick off an article on a website about MTG finance, but it’s my solemn realization. I think it’s been this way for a year or two now, but it’s only now sinking in that the game itself no longer exists for me. Brad Nelson (@fffreakmtg) put it best on Twitter recently, and Jonathan Medina (@medina_mtg) helped emphasize the point.

Thinking back, I can identify a few key events that flipped the switch in my brain, shifting my focus from Magic play to Magic finance. They may not be 100% mutually exclusive, but often enough a decision within one negatively impacts the other. And now, I’m sitting here wondering if I can ever enjoy the game itself again.

Acute Life Events

When I consider my shift from “playing with Magic cards” to “buying Magic cards”, I don’t think the move happened overnight. It was a series of life changes that cascaded into my current reality.

First and most significant, my spouse and I had a child in 2012. This was around the time I was most interested in playing Magic. I never really believed I could make it onto the Pro Tour, but I had ambition once upon a time. Most realistically, I had established myself as a formidable opponent at my LGS, grinding out weekly Legacy events and winning the occasional draft. I miss the days of Mystical Tutor’s legality in Legacy!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mystical Tutor

In the year or two leading up to my son’s birth, I had been avidly collecting Legacy cards with the intent of playing multiple archetypes depending on my local metagame. But within a year or so of my son’s birth, I realized that playing in regular events was no longer so easy to prioritize. Around this time, Legacy staples all skyrocketed in price—this is when I developed the idea that I could use Magic to help offset my son’s college costs. I went to a local Grand Prix and sold out of Legacy.

Despite this cash-out, I still played Standard at local FNM’s and I thoroughly enjoyed the fledgling Modern format. I gravitated towards Melira Pod, and loved the infinite decision points the combo deck presents. Games were fun an interactive, and it always felt like there was a “way out” if I just utilized my Birthing Pod toolbox correctly.

Then Wizards banned the card.

I was really disappointed to see the value of my Modern deck drop considering my end goal was to fund my son’s college costs. How could I possibly justify owning cards with potential to drop in value if my end goal was to increase value?

I pivoted towards a Bloom Titan type deck and really enjoyed its engine. I acquired the cards for the deck as soon as I saw it perform well at a Pro Tour. But it performed too well, and shortly thereafter Summer Bloom received the banhammer. Fool me once, shame on you Wizards. But fool me twice, shame on me. I was done with Modern.

Around this time, I also lost interest in Standard because rotation hurt the bottom line too much. Imagine a format where every two years, entire sets were effectively “banned”. This wouldn’t fly.

Despite all the above, I still enjoyed the casual side of the game. A friend and I would get together about once a month and battled via all sorts of casual formats: Commander, Old School, worst deck challenges, pack wars, pack wars with Rainbow Vales, etc.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rainbow Vale

Then my good friend moved away, and the monthly get-togethers ceased. Making new friends—especially Magic playing friends—is very difficult when you’ve got two young children. I lost my last outlet for playing Magic, and with that, my focus on the hobby shifted 100% towards finance.

Tension Points and Decisions

If you truly wish to optimize your involvement in Magic finance, then you have to be willing to make certain sacrifices. This is the realization I came to over the past few years—I’ve tried all sorts of ways to enjoy Magic play, and the Old School community is the closest I’ve come to success. But at the end of the day, there are still trade-offs that require suboptimal decisions about finance, and I continue to struggle with this tension point.

Here are some recent examples of decisions I’ve made where I prioritized one and sacrificed the other. As you read through these, think about how similar situations may apply to your own MTG involvement, and if you should be making alternate decisions depending on how you want to engage the two distinct hobbies.

Example 1:

Over a year ago, I tweeted that Card Kingdom was paying some silly-high dollar amount on Grave Robbers. I think it was in the $6.50 range. I had a copy but didn’t want to part with it because I find the artwork amusing. Card Kingdom’s current buy price: $1.25. In fact, I could have sold my copy and bought several only one year later with the proceeds. This is a small example that defines a major tension point between Magic play/enjoyment and Magic finance.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grave Robbers

I have a diverse collection of Old School cards and buy prices went through the roof a while ago. Now many prices have dropped back down (appropriately so, the high prices were unsustainable and manipulated by “MTG Finance”, after all). The optimal move would have been to sell during the hype and buy back in, but I chose to prioritize collecting over finance, sacrificing hundreds of dollars in value as I watched my collection’s value drop.

Example 2:

I have played the same two Commander decks for many years now, only making occasional tweaks here and there. Since I play so infrequently, it makes little sense to optimize the lists. But it goes beyond a time investment—consider the financial drawbacks to maintaining Commander decks. Sure, some cards do appreciate over time; but a lot of them see reprints and drop in value. What’s more, rather than holding a valuable Commander deck and haphazardly scoring a profit here and there, I’d prefer keeping as little value in these decks as possible, prioritizing the money on cards I am most confident in.

The result: I don’t win very many Commander games. And every time a card randomly spikes, I find myself feeling the need to cash out opportunistically since the cards themselves offer little value outside their monetary one. This happened most recently with the Medallions, which have recently jumped. I could hold these to see if they rise further in price, but it’s just too tempting to sell into the spike and put the money to work elsewhere.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruby Medallion

Example 3:

This is the most recent example. After reading about the Alpha 40 format, I decided I wanted to try it out. I quickly built a Plague Rats deck, starting as budget as possible and then upgrading the deck as I went. I even managed to play some games with the deck, though the jury is still out on whether or not I think it’s all that fun (the deck-building options are fairly limited).

But now Alpha cards have spiked to the point where I could sell the deck and put a good chunk of money away for my kids’ college. I suppose Alpha cards have further upside still in the long-term, but is it possible we see another pullback like we did with other Old School cards? Is this capital better put elsewhere? I could even just put the money into a mutual fund—the returns may not be as exciting, but they’ll be more dependable. As my kids age, reliable growth is going to be more important.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plague Rats

I haven’t made the sale yet, but I have to consider my end goal here: to help fund college costs. With that backdrop, I should be looking to sell opportunistically. But this comes at a cost: I can’t play an optimal deck and I can’t completely focus on building a collection of the oldest cards in existence. It’s a really hard trade-off I haven’t quite found the balance with yet. But since I don’t get to play the cards, you can understand my dilemma.

Wrapping It Up

If you believe you can equally engage in Magic play and Magic finance, you’re fooling yourself. Or, better put, you’re making some major sacrifices (perhaps without even realizing it). Making a decision to optimize one side of the hobby is often exclusive to the other side.

I have learned this gradually over the past few years, and my balance has tipped drastically in the direction of MTG Finance. In a way, I regret this progression because it occurred partly out of my control. I didn’t ban my two favorite Modern decks and I didn’t tell my friend to move away. But given my stage in life, this really is the best balance.

I could mourn my loss of interest in Magic play itself. But regretting the past is fruitless. I just need to make sure I delineate where my play/collecting hobby ends and where the finance hobby begins. Then as I make transactions accordingly, I can proceed with confidence in knowing that my actions are moving towards end goals. If they’re not, then I need to really scrutinize the action to determine if the happiness I’m going to get is going to outweigh the potential financial drawbacks.

At the end of the day I need to ask myself: am I getting enough enjoyment out of Grave Robbers, and Legacy cards, and Alpha cards, and all the other cards I decide to keep on a daily basis? If not, then my bend towards finance needs to take precedence. It’s the only way to proceed logically, with my end goals in mind.

But what about your end goals? Are you making optimal decisions based on how you’d prefer to engage with Magic?

…

Sigbits

  • A couple of older cards have returned to Card Kingdom’s hotlist after a lengthy absence. The top card right now is Candelabra of Tawnos ($510). I’m not sure if there’s a particular reason demand may have risen, but certainly a powerful, rare card. I’d love to own a copy myself, but I cannot justify the cost.
  • Arabian Nights City of Brass returned to Card Kingdom’s hotlist recently. They only have a few left in stock, so it appears these are on the move. Their current buy price is $245, but I remember their buylist peaking in the $270 range at one point. If you are interested, Cool Stuff Inc has a few copies that are competitively priced considering Card Kingdom’s aggressive buylist.
  • Two Dual Lands have reappeared on CK’s hotlist! Volcanic Island ($320) and Badlands ($145). This may not be their highs, but the numbers are solid. I have a few extra Duals I recently acquired with trade-in credit, and I like the idea of cashing credit into these for a 1-2 year hold. These tend to rise and fall in cycles, and the next increase should happen within that time period.

July ’19 Brew Report, Pt. 1: Fun-Earth

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July in brewing? More of the same. More copies of Unearth, to be sure. And more of what's become known as Modern's calling card: novel experiments bursting with hot tech. Today we'll look at some of the month's breakout strategies: Elemental tribal, White Weenie, and the return of old-school Miracle Grow.

Disentombed Again

Unearth continues to make waves in Modern, now as part of an Elemental-recurring engine.

BR Thunderkin, by SEROX (5-0)

Creatures

4 Thunderkin Awakener
3 Dreadhorde Arcanist
4 Lightning Skelemental
4 Ball Lightning
2 Seasoned Pyromancer
1 Insolent Neonate
1 Young Pyromancer

Instants

1 Dismember
2 Fatal Push
1 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
4 Unearth

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Dragonskull Summit
5 Mountain
2 Scalding Tarn
1 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Abrade
1 Engineered Explosives
3 Fulminator Mage
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Plague Engineer
2 Saheeli, Sublime Artificer

BR Thunderkin represents a natural evolution from the BR Unearth lists we saw cropping up a few months ago. Such decks were already abusing the hard-hitting three-drop core of Seasoned Pyromancer, Lightning Skelemental, and Unearth, and were bound to integrate Thunderkin Awakener once M20 dropped. This build in particular closely resembles the June lists, but with Thunderkin seamlessly weaved in alongside a set of Ball Lightnings to draw extra value from the newcomer.

More streamlined builds are also appearing:

BR Thunderkin, by LANTTO (5-0)

Creatures

4 Dreadhorde Arcanist
4 Lightning Skelemental
4 Seasoned Pyromancer
4 Thunderkin Awakener

Instants

2 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize
4 Unearth

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
3 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Fiery Islet
1 Marsh Flats
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
2 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Sunbaked Canyon
1 Verdant Catacombs

Sideboard

1 Abrade
2 Collective Brutality
3 Fulminator Mage
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Plague Engineer
1 Shattering Spree

This take on BR Thunderkin cuts right to the chase, Unearthing only the baddest creatures available and employing Thunderkin itself as a Skelemental machine. In a topdeck war, value chains can begin from any link—Dreadhorde flashes back Unearth which targets Thunderkin which reanimates Skelemental, and Seasoned Pyromancer digs pilots into a chain-starter, helping BR topdeck extremely well.

The Pyromancer-Skelemental-Unearth package isn't exclusively relegated to Elemental shenanigans now that M20's been released, though. It's also proven strong enough for the Hollow One deck, where it surfaced in a 5-0 before launching the deck back into metagame with a Challenge finish.

Another Crusade

One of Magic's oldest and most beloved archetypes, White Weenie has never had much success in Modern. We've even covered promising builds on Modern Nexus, only to see them retreat into the maelstrom. Now, the archetype is starting to rear its head in Modern, but not thanks to Force of Virtue, a card we've already seen splashed into Zoo to impressive effect. Rather, White Weenie owes its sudden relevance to a certain overlooked Elephant Cleric.

White Weenie, by INTERNETSURFER09 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Countless Gears Renegade
4 Signal Pest
4 Steppe Lynx
2 Dryad Militant
3 Benalish Marshal
2 Boros Elite
2 Dauntless Bodyguard
4 Judge's Familiar
1 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
2 Selfless Spirit
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Thalia, Heretic Cathar
4 Venerated Loxodon

Instants

3 Path to Exile

Lands

3 Arid Mesa
4 Flooded Strand
4 Marsh Flats
5 Plains
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

2 Selfless Spirit
4 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Declaration in Stone
4 Leonin Relic-Warder
4 Rest in Peace

White Weenie plays out a bunch of cheap, white beaters and hopes for the best. It's no wonder Modern hasn't been kind to the strategy. But things start to look up when the deck's hopeful creatures tap to summon Venerated Loxodon.

The 4/4, besides providing sheer bulk itself, permanently grows an assault à la Thalia's Lieutenant in Humans. As White Weenie goes wider, and faster, than Humans, Loxodon ends up adding much more power and toughness than the Soldier—especially considering mana doesn't need to be spent on it. Pilots can instead empty the rest of their hand, then tap the team for Loxodon and set up a very rapid clock.

Kuldotha Weenie, by ERKS (5-0)

Creatures

4 Memnite
4 Ornithopter
4 Signal Pest
1 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
3 Martyr's Soul
4 Thraben Inspector
2 Venerated Loxodon

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble
4 Mox Opal

Enchantments

4 Force of Virtue
3 Legion's Landing

Sorceries

4 Kuldotha Rebirth
2 Servo Exhibition

Lands

4 Blinkmoth Nexus
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Inspiring Vantage
1 Plains
1 Spire of Industry
3 Sunbaked Canyon

Sideboard

2 Experimental Frenzy
4 Galvanic Blast
3 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Pithing Needle
1 Rest in Peace
3 Wear // Tear

Kuldotha Weenie offers a novel take on the strategy by melding it with Kudoltha Rebirth, the card helming another of Modern's age-old fringe decks. 0-mana artifacts, creatures or otherwise, pump out Loxodon even faster; in lieu of the Elepehant, Martyr's Soul acts as a Tarmogoyf of sorts, offering an impressive body for little- to no-cost. With Martyr in the picture, players are less likely to wind up with dead Ornithopters and nothing to convoke for.

Growing Pains

For years, I called my thresh tempo decks "grow" decks. Not that they aimed to grow their creatures, per se—those creatures entered the battlefield large enough. The name came, rather, from the heritage of the threshold archetype, which once employed Quirion Dryad as its primary beater. Chaining cantrips and sequencing disruption, the original grow decks sought to attack each turn with a progressively larger creature until destabilized opponents were defeated.

Quirion Dryad is far from a playable Modern card; Tarmogoyf, its spiritual successor and cross-format supplanter, has made sure of that. But what if it started with an extra point of power? And had flash? And was blue? Gro-a-Tog-ers, never fear: to find out, Brineborn Cutthroat is here!

Jeskai Grow, by MRRAEB (5-0)

Creatures

4 Brineborn Cutthroat
4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Spectral Sailor
2 Vendilion Clique

Instants

4 Opt
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix
4 Path to Exile
3 Logic Knot
3 Cryptic Command
1 Force of Negation

Sorceries

2 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard

2 Force of Negation
2 Disdainful Stroke
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Spell Pierce
1 Supreme Verdict
3 Surgical Extraction
2 Timely Reinforcements

Jeskai Grow operates much like a Jeskai Tempo deck should, although Brineborn seems a fair improvement over other threats Jeskai has turned to in the past. It doesn't require tapping out, unlike Geist of Saint Traft; it doesn't carry a narrow casting window, as does Spell Queller. It also applies heaps of pressure if not dealt with. Another flash creature, Spectral Sailor, shows up here as a mana sink and card advantage engine.

Grixis Grow, by GALANATOR (5-0)

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Brineborn Cutthroat

Instants

4 Opt
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Fatal Push
1 Cast Down
1 Terminate
2 Logic Knot
2 Remand
1 Spell Pierce
3 Cryptic Command
2 Force of Negation
3 Kolaghan's Command
2 Fact or Fiction
1 Surgical Extraction

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
3 Creeping Tar Pit
1 Desolate Lighthouse
3 Island
1 Mountain
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls
1 Swamp
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Force of Negation
1 Spell Pierce
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Engineered Explosives
2 Fry
2 Keranos, God of Storms
2 Plague Engineer
2 Ravenous Trap
1 Spell Snare

Grixis Grow takes a leaner, slower approach, appearing closer on paper to the threat-light Gro-a-Tog decks of old. There's resultantly more value here, from Fact or Fiction to Kolaghan's Command, and less reach to close out the game with. Once opponents are exhausted of resources, Brineborn comes down and stands up tall to finish the game quick; it may also drain those resources in the early- to mid-game if allowed to flourish for long enough.

Temur Grow, by THEEXALTEDONE (5-0)

Creatures

3 Huntmaster of the Fells
4 Brineborn Cutthroat
4 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

1 Negate
4 Opt
4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Magmatic Sinkhole
2 Spell Snare
3 Archmage's Charm
2 Pulse of Murasa
3 Cryptic Command

Lands

2 Breeding Pool
1 Flooded Strand
1 Forest
5 Island
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Mountain
1 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground

Sideboard

2 Alpine Moon
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Damping Sphere
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Dispel
1 Fry
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Vedalken Shackles

Last up is Temur Grow, which splashes not for Quirion Dryad or even Tarmogoyf, but for Huntmaster of the Fells! Long a pet card of mine, Huntmaster can take over creature matchups by himself, and at four copies is a highly reliable plan. Thought Scour is another instant-speed cantrip to support Brineborn, and this Temur shell funnels the extra binned cards into Magmatic Sinkhole, a card fast becoming the breakout removal spell of Modern Horizons.

One thing all these Brineborn decks have in common? Their reliance on red, or more specifically, on Lightning Bolt. There are few better instants in Magic, let alone in Modern. Being castable at any time and eminently flexible, Bolt is exactly the kind of card an aggro-control deck like Grow wants at its fingertips.

20 Brews a Day

Okay, 20 might be an exaggeration. But the fact stands that M20 and Modern Horizons have injected a metric ton of new blood into the format. Next week we'll round out our July brew report with even more sweet tech from the MODO annals.

Insider: Simple Strategies for Safer Specs

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I’ve been doing a lot of buying and flipping cards lately, and I’ve developed some simple strategies that help me make safer specs. There are a lot of opportunities out there. By following a few guidelines, I can focus on the specs with the lowest downside and those with the highest upside, all while avoiding potential disaster specs.

The Older The Better

As a general rule of thumb, the older a card is, the lower its supply. The lower a card’s supply, the lower the critical mass of demand is necessary to cause a spike, and the higher the potential price. Magic went through a boom in the player base and accordingly the print run of cards sometime around Zendikar in 2009, so I try to focus my specs on sets from before this time. Speculating on newer cards doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, because there’s simply too much supply out there for anything but objectively modest gains.

Speculating on more recent cards should be focused on the lowest supply cards, so Mythic Rares and those from special editions like Masters sets that have drastically smaller print runs than normal sets.

This brings me to another maxim, that speculating on cards from the third set in a block is better than the second set, both of which are better than the first. Drafting and sealed deck used to be done by block, so later sets in blocks were opened less. With third sets in blocks typically being released in late spring, that left only a short window during summer for the set to be opened before the next block came in the fall. This same idea extends to Core sets, which historically have and still are being released in the summer.

Combined with lower demand in general for these relatively bland sets, their supply is low and can lead to some extreme prices - see examples like the $5 uncommon Stoke the Flames and the $100 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy when they were in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Two recent examples that made me a lot of money combined both of these principles, Veilstone Amulet and Storage Matrix. Both are old cards from the third sets in their blocks, and sudden surges in Commander demand led to massive growth in the realm of 1,000%. 

That brings me to my next point, focusing on the most playable cards.

Playable Cards Sell Well

In my experience, the cards that sell the best are the most playable. That doesn’t mean how good it is, it means how many people actually want to play it. Modern and Commander are the biggest formats with the most players, and that means these cards sell the best, at least in my experience. When Veilstone Amulet spiked I sold a steady stream of 1-ofs to Commander players for weeks until I ran out, while my Autochthon Wurm spec typically went in batches of 2 of 4-ofs to Modern players picking up the new Neoform deck. 

The general idea is to focus on Modern and Commander playables over other cards. Legacy, Vintage, and even Old-School or Pauper should be fair game, but I’d try to avoid the cards that don’t really fit anywhere and require a true collector. Standard is a world of its own and somewhere I don’t really speculate so I can’t offer many thoughts. I imagine it sells well but has intense competition, and only short windows to sell to capture the best prices. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury of the Horde

I’ve had a tough time with foil cards, and I believe it’s because they violate the playability maxim. When I’ve picked up specs I’ve often been able to get some foils along with them, but these are always harder and slower to move. I often have to resort to buylisting them away because they never sold at all - see my foil copies of Fury of the Horde. Most players just want the cheapest thing they can play with, and that leaves foils for collectors and a small subset of players. 

I have often bought played foils, which is part of the problem. Players that do want foils are high-end consumers likely buying the nicest copies they can, and aren’t interested in played copies. In fact, I likely have been able to buy these played copies only because the smart money ahead of me already bought the Near Mint copies and specifically left the played copies knowing they won’t move. This is a lesson I’ll have to heed myself going forward and leave the played foils for someone else. 

Don’t Double-Down on Double-Spiked Cards

Another hard lesson I’ve learned is to avoid what could be called a double-spiked card, a card that previously spiked and is going through a second spike. Buying in somewhere in the middle and trying to catch the next spike is setting yourself up for disaster. My example is Primal Beyond, which was under $3 before Core Set 2020 spoilers started bringing attention to the Elemental tribe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primal Beyond

There were murmurs about Primal Beyond on the internet and places like the Quiet Speculation Discord, so when it started moving I bought in on a bunch and some money when it spiked to over $7. As the set was full spoiled and released and it became clear just how strong the Elementals and cards like Risen Reef were, Primal Beyond spiked again, and suddenly was flirting with $20. I got greedy and scooped up as many as I could at the old price under $10, but within a day or so the price had already tempered back down to the mid-teens and is now basically back at $10.  

What I failed to understand when I re-bought back in is that there were obviously speculators at hand in both price spikes, including those who bought in before the first spike that didn’t sell and held out for the second, which helped crash the market so fast. When a card spikes twice, there is very little room for upside. I could not have realistically expected Primal Beyond to spike again, but I should have seen a whole lot of downside, potentially all the way down to the level before the first spike.

I outed the final few playsets I had to buylists at break-even or worse just to make sure I don’t get caught holding a bag I am not confident in, because Primal Beyond lacks the playability factor of a real Modern staple and is only an obscure Commander card at this point.

Turn Over Your Cards ASAP

This brings me to my final point, turn your cards as soon as you can. The market is always moving and cards that spike tend to revert to the mean. My process is to aggressively sell cards on TCGplayer and Ebay to capture dollars, but I regularly check the buylist price of my portfolio. Whenever a good sell opportunity arises, I am quick to turn my cards into credit to fund my next spec.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hexdrinker

If I bought a spec for credit then I’m always happy to flip for credit profit, like I did with a set of Hexdrinker I picked up at 16 credit each before it spiked last week, and when they arrived immediately resold to the same store at 24 credit each for a nice profit. Even if I bought in for cash, credit is often a fine option. Keep in mind that it helps avoid the fees, shipping costs, and time spent selling them individually. It also provides the service of locking in a price, which can be very valuable in a world of the “race to the bottom” which exerts constant downward pressure on cards.

-Adam

Chris’s Commander Corner: Ixalan Edition

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Hi again, Readers!

I'd like to welcome you into a mini-series rendition of Chris's Commander Corner. Over the next four weeks, I am going to be focusing on the cards rotating in the fall which I believe will make for great long-term EDH-based specs. I'll be doing one article for each rotating set in chronological order from their original release, starting with Ixalan.

We all may remember Ixalan - it feels like dinosaurs were roaming the Earth when it was released (ha ha). Ixalan still strikes me as the first Standard set Wizards truly designed for Commander. Fortunately for my topic over the next few weeks, the sets that followed Ixalan continued that design pattern and there are plenty of cards to write about!

With a theme of Pirates, Dinosaurs, and Treasure Tokens, it is no surprise that "Commander gold" is everywhere in Ixalan, and narrowing the watchlist of targets down wasn't easy. Without further adieu, let's get into it!

The Watch List

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vanquisher's Banner

Starting with a bang, let's talk about the #1 most-played EDH card from all of Ixalan: Vanquisher's Banner. I love this card long-term in foil, simply because it is so easy to reprint in Commander precons where it would not receive a foil version.

The card is straight gas in tribal builds (an always popular strategy) and it just gets better and better as new tribes keep getting support (see: Ninjas, Elementals, Morophon, the Boundless, etc.). If you are running a tribal deck in EDH currently and don't have Vanquisher's Banner in your 99 I'd love to understand why (feel free to message me explaining!). For what it is worth, I currently have six tribal decks and every single one of them runs a copy.

Investment Plan - I

Unfortunately, the floor on Vanquisher's Banner foils happened over six months ago when it bottomed out around $5. Multiple large vendors are thinly stocked on this card which doesn't bode well for keeping its price low even with rotation looming. It sees virtually no play in Standard, so it is less likely to fall victim to a rotational price drop, thus if you need a copy or want to spec on this card, it's worth doing so sooner rather than later. The foil multiplier looks promising at 2.5x with room to grow, but I would shy away from non-foils due to the aforementioned reprint risk above.

If you can acquire LP or NM foils for $6-8, that should end up being a pretty solid price-point long-term. Vanquisher's Banner has all the makings of a $15+ foil by 2020, similar to the trajectory of Panharmonicon or Anointed Procession when they rotated.

Disclosure: I own four copies of Vanquisher's Banner purchased for $5 and currently listed for sale at $10.

The Buy-a-Box Promos

To be honest, the BaB promos might not be the best play here in all circumstances. With this series being extremely difficult to reprint (flip-cards set on Ixalan!), I actually love acquiring the non-foil pack versions of each card above as I think they are more cost-effective and have higher upside.

In particular, I think we're going to see Search for Azcanta completely bottom out over the next few months which will open the door for one of the lowest risk long-term specs I have ever called attention to.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Search for Azcanta

Investment Plan - II

Search has been played heavily in Standard throughout its lifecycle, but its non-foil price has already dropped dramatically since April. Some of this is metagame shift in Standard and some of this is in anticipation of rotation in the fall. Either way, be patient with Search and a few weeks after rotation, look for a nice entry on pack non-foils at or near $4.

I estimate by this time in 2020 (barring a judge promo reprint) Search for Azcanta will ascend back to $10 on the back of Modern playability and EDH appeal. With an entry of $4-5, this will make for a wonderful double-up if you have the patience to hold that long. It's also an equally appealing price-point to acquire copies for personal use (I'll be doing this for sure).

I suspect price memory will be strong for Search for Azcanta, so the window to the absolute floor may not last longer than a few weeks. Add this one to your watchlist and hop on for the ride!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thaumatic Compass

For EDH purposes, my favorite from the BaB series is Thaumatic Compass. It does two things that a ton of EDH decks don't normally have access to - mana fixing and combat tricks. Being an artifact is such a huge advantage to its playability as it can slot into color combinations not normally able to do what Thaumatic Compass does (think Azorius, Boros or Rakdos, for example).

I'm a big fan of acquiring Thaumatic Compass Buy-A-Box Promo versions because the art is simply magnificent.

I am admittedly partial to the art on the BaBs; in fact, I am currently working on framing one of each Buy-A-Box Promo around the Ixalan Players Championship playmat - keep an eye on my Twitter and Instagram for when I post the photo of this coming to life!

Investment Plan - III

I'm looking to acquire a few copies of the Buy-A-Box Promos for $6-7 (NM) and I believe these can eventually return to a $12-15 price-point over time as the preferred option for EDH players. I do also love acquiring the pack non-foils for $1-1.50 with a plan of outing them at $5 in 6-12 months.

Best (BaBs) of the Rest

I could write an entire article around the Buy-A-Box series from Ixalan, but to save time (and words) so my editors don't yell at me (for real though, shout out to QS editors for being awesome!), I'm going to cover Primal Amulet, Growing Rites of Itlimoc, and Dowsing Dagger all at once.

These three cards all rank in the top 11 of the EDHREC Most Played from Ixalan list. In fact, Growing Rites and Amulet rank #2 and #5 overall while Dagger comes in at that #11 spot (for reference, Search is #8 and Compass is #6). My consensus feeling for all of these is that the non-foils are great acquisition targets roughly 6-8 weeks after rotation and that any of these will be a solid double-up prospect given 6-12 months (i.e. this time next year, any of these cards could very well be worth 2x what you pay in early-December 2019).

If you need any of the Ixalan flip cards mentioned for personal use or plan to spec on them, I recommend adding them to your watchlist and tracking their price trajectory. An additional indicator to follow is CardKingdom's buylist - as the prices fall on these, you'll notice CK will either drop their price in concert or remove the cards from their buylist altogether. Once they remove them, that is a good indication of a supply glut and rock bottom pricing should follow.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunbird's Invocation

Remember when Sunbird's Invocation was the hottest EDH spec since Paradox Engine? I do. I bought copies of this a long time ago when the foils still hovered around $9 and have taken a bath on them ever since. The card has plummeted 50% since I bought my four copies and in retrospect, this might be one of the worst single specs I ever chased.

But, good news for all of you! Sunbird's Invocation foils are sub-$5 and falling despite it being #7 on the aforementioned EDHREC list of most played from Ixalan. I'll admit I am hesitant to call this after other MTG finance outlets called it a long while back, but the hell with that mentality! Let's undo their wrongs and make a right.

Investment Plan - IV

I'm going to be watching for an opportunity to grab a handful of Sunbird's Invocation foils at $4. I think this is an entirely realistic price target despite the card seeing zero play in Standard and likely being unaffected at rotation. Buylists are extremely weak on the card already (CK is only paying $1.75 for NM foils currently) and I suspect this will fall further before having a chance to rebound back to $8-10 over the subsequent 6-12 months.

I'm focusing on foils for Sunbird's Invocation primarily because this type of card seems like it could be easily reprinted in a Commander precon where it wouldn't get a foil treatment. That said, non-foils are becoming an attractive bulk (penny stock) pickup in their own right, and if you have a shot at them for $0.50 or less I would take it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Admiral Beckett Brass

Of this entire list, Admiral Beckett Brass might be my favorite card to acquire for the combination of personal use and speculative purposes.

The creature-type pirate is one I know has a deep following in the Commander circles and if we were to get more support for the tribe in #MTGEldraine and subsequent blocks (pirates are in fairytales, think Peter Pan) Admiral Beckett Brass would be a quick-hit spec. While this is entirely baseless at its roots, Admiral Beckett makes for a tough reprint that should only get more appealing in EDH over time (I wonder if pirates are the new ninjas from a tribe-lacking-enough-support perspective?).

Investment Plan - V

I will start off by saying I have no intentions of acquiring more than 2-3 foil copies of Admiral Beckett Brass. It won't be impacted much by rotation as it doesn't see any Standard play, and I suspect folks with this in their binder already may simply hold onto it in hopes of pirates getting more support for Commander (or Oathbreaker).

Notably speaking, the buylist on Admiral Beckett Brass is extremely strong - CardKingdom is paying $2 for NM foils while the TCG low is about $3. The spread of prices around the internet shows me that this card is relatively volatile and hard to keep in stock.

I like foils at $3 if you can find them but don't go deep on this one. That said, in my best estimate, copies at $3 will end up gaining faster than you might expect.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Cunning Castaway

I wasn't able to use the graph to depict the SDCC 2018 version of Jace, Cunning Castaway but that's the version I'll almost assuredly be speccing on (possibly sooner than rotation).

I love Jace, Cunning Castaway in general because its ultimate is easily achievable and it goes infinite with Doubling Season. It's also the type of card that just gets better with age as new interactions are created and it should be fairly difficult to reprint given its specific portrayal of Jace in the Ixalan storyline.

The card isn't seeing a whole lot of EDH play to date, so this call is based more on potential than existing data and results. That said, I like stashing a few of these (any version) away for a rainy day.

Investment Plan - VI

I am specifically going to be focusing my purchases on SDCC 2018 copies at $25. There are still copies out there at this older price despite the TCGPlayer most recent sold being at $33.

For the pack non-foil and foil versions, I see a good entry point at $1 and $4 respectively. Be patient with the pack versions as this card is one I suspect will drop further as binders empty out in coming months.

Some Runners Up for Consideration

Wrapping Up

However you decide to approach rotation, remember to be patient and use the available data to inform your purchasing decisions. Monitoring the cards you'd like to acquire on TCG and CardKingdom's buylist will help you time your purchases most optimally. Make sure to set a watch list by either adding the cards to your cart or to a simple spreadsheet - this can help you see the prices evolve over time and prepare you for the best time to get what you are looking for.

The list of cards I provided above is just what I'll be adding to my watchlist. What did I miss? Are there any I called that you think I shouldn't have? Hit me up in QS Insider Discord or on Twitter to continue the discussion!

See you all next week to talk about Rivals of Ixalan!

 

The Metagame Experience: MCQ Report

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This is an odd feeling for me. For all its flaws, the PPTQ system meant that grinders like me always had competitive level events to grind and keep our skills sharp. The MCQ system is functionally the same as the old PTQ system, which means very few events and very spread out. Since I'm a Westerner deprived of SCG events, I've only played one competitive level event in 2019. Hitting a Modern MCQ is like picking up an old, beloved hobby after years of neglect.

As described last week, the metagame is still forming after months of upheaval. The data is too thin to draw any conclusions and decks are all over the place. Given that this event was happening parallel to a Standard GP, I figured that things would be even more volatile. Between players scrubbing out and out of town players, I didn't know what to expect. I ended up being very surprised—for surprising reasons.

The Deck

I had several options for this tournament. I played UW Spirits for most of last year, and following PPTQ season I was desperate to play anything else. I incidentally had most of the cards for Humans, so I finished and played it for most of the spring in between experimental decks. While I came to appreciate why the deck has done so well for so long, while preparing for the MCQ, I wasn't confidant in Humans.

I hate playing popular decks at big events. Other players will have practiced against the deck and prepare a good plan for victory. There's usually a very good reason that the deck was popular in the first place, and I knew Humans's power and flexibility could push through anything. However, I don't want to give my opponents any value from direct experience from their own preparation.

Also, and on a more practical level, I've been struggling with Humans for several weeks. Jund's gaining popularity and can dodge most of Human's interaction while picking it apart, so that's not great. Also, Blood Moon decks had started to spread, and Humans just loses to that card more than I'd like. Thus I defaulted to a deck that could beat Jund and not get Mooned out.

UW Spirits, David Ernenwein (MCQ Richmond)

Creatures

3 Spectral Sailor
4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Supreme Phantom
3 Rattlechains
3 Unsettled Mariner
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

3 Path to Exile
3 Force of Negation

Lands

4 Hallowed Fountain
4 Flooded Strand
3 Cavern of Souls
3 Field of Ruin
3 Plains
3 Island
1 Seachrome Coast

Sideboard

3 Auriok Champion
3 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Damping Sphere
2 Runed Halo
2 Detention Sphere
1 Path to Exile

I've adopted a lot of new cards. As I said in my preview article, Unsettled Mariner is an incredible card against interactive decks, but isn't great elsewhere. As I expected a lot of Jund, both Mariner and the grindy Spectral Sailor were necessary.

Force of Negation is a bit more speculative. I don't like the card, but it does close a gap in Spirits and it looked useful enough to make some room. Having to hold up Spell Queller in combo matchups can really kill your clock, and Force does let me tap out and not just lose.

For the record, I wouldn't run Force just for Neoform combo decks. Even if you run a full set, the odds of seeing one in a given hand are only 40%. It's never been the actuality of Force of Will keeping Belcher decks down in Legacy; it's fear of Force. I apply the same logic to Modern, and am only running Force so I can tap out and protect my creatures.

Sideboard

Fitting in Force meant I had to cut a Path, which I moved to the sideboard. A lot of players are running Deputy of Detention as their catch-all since it synergizes with Vial, but my Humans experience included a lot of Deputy blowouts. Therefore I went with the original Detention Sphere. Creature removal is more common than enchantment removal, and since I had the mana to make it work I went with the more robust option.

Runed Halo is a very underappreciated card. The number of decks that rely on very few threats and can't remove enchantments is surprisingly high. I started running it just against Valakut decks, but it's proved to be far more versatile than expected.

The Damping Spheres aren't only here for, or even because of, Tron. Spirits can play around anything but Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, so Sphere is not really necessary in that matchup. It's also why I cut Ghost Quarter for Field of Ruin. Rather, I'm running Sphere for Amulet Titan. I've won games with Sphere when my opponent didn't have non-bounce lands and couldn't pay for their Summoner's Pact.

The Tournament

Previous experience at GP PTQs and MCQs told me that the event would be so massive that the only way to Top 8 would be to go undefeated and have exceptional tie-breakers, since these events are limited to six rounds. However, that was last year, when the GP's were all huge. GP Denver was only about 600 players and the MCQ I was in had around 120 players. Subsequently, at least a few 5-1 records would make it into the Top 8.

The drop-off is certainly some combination of the confusion in Organized Play and the Standard format, but I don't know which is the stronger factor. This is both disappointing and encouraging: disappointing to see the collapse in numbers, encouraging since it made my odds of success much higher.

Rounds 1-2 vs Eldrazi Tron (Play, 1-1)

Rounds 1 and 2 were against Eldrazi Tron. In the exact same table and same chair. I'm on the play both matches, and the first two games play out exactly the same way; Only the Game 3s diverge.

Both times, Game 1 is very easy as I simply run my opponent over. I opened on Vial into 1- and 2-drops turn two with Spell Queller for the turn three Thought Knot-Seer and just stomped to victory. Game 2, both of us see all our removal, and it turns into a staring contest. A highlight for me is getting two Walking Ballistas with Detention Sphere with Stony Silence out. However, even with lots of extra draws from Sailors (which end up doing a lot of damage), I just flood out and get smashed by spaghetti monsters.

The first Game 3 I win when I have a decent curve and Eldrazi Tron didn't get any acceleration out.  At four, he chose to kill himself with Dismember. The other one plays out like Game 2 again. I'm drawing two cards a turn off Sailor and they're all just lands so my opponent has the time to find a win condition.

Sideboarding

-3 Force of Negation

-3 Unsettled Mariner

-1 Aether Vial

+2 Detention Sphere

+2 Damping Sphere

+2 Stony Silence

+1 Path to Exile

Round 3 vs Infect (Draw, 2-1)

If I lose again, I'm certainly out of contention and just playing for prize. My opponent generously double mulligans on the play, plays a turn one Glistener Elf which I immediately Path, and does nothing further until I kill him.

In Game 2 he has many infectors which I answer, but my anemic followup clock lets him back in the game. He has all his Noble Hierarchs, so any infector connecting kills me. Fortunately, I can just keep chumping his Elf and try to race. Unfortunately, he finds Blighted Agent and I'm one point short of killing him.

Game 3 I have the removal for his Agents and Field for Inkmoth Nexus, but can only chump Elf. Fortunately, I get down Runed Halo and he has no answer, buying me the time to beat him down.

Sideboarding:

-3 Unsettled Mariner

-1 Aether Vial

-1 Selfless Spirit

+2 Detention Sphere

+2 Runed Halo

+1 Path to Exile

Round 4 vs Dredge (Draw, 3-1)

I knew my opponent was on Dredge, having sat next to him Round 2. I keep my Game 1 hand on the basis that I can Force his Faithless Looting and not just be out of the game. That happens, he has another Looting, dredges a lot, hits me with several Creeping Chills, and does nothing else until he's dead. His dredges were all bad and he didn't have green mana for his Life from the Loams.

Game 2 we both mulligan. Again he Loots then has a decent dredge turn two, but can't actually get his Prized Amalgams into play. I draw Rest in Peace that turn, slam it down, and he has nothing else to do while I assemble a kill. I was exceptionally lucky both games.

Sideboarding:

-3 Spectral Sailor

-3 Force of Negation

-3 Rattlechains

+1 Path to Exile

+2 Detention Sphere

+3 Rest in Peace

+3 Auriok Champion

Round 5 Affinity (Draw, 4-1)

I'm back to the same table and chair I started in. Not that I've been choosing it, but my opponents keep getting there first. It's a bit disconcerting, and I'm dreading another Eldrazi Tron. The narrative impulse here is for full-circularity. But my opponent surprises with traditional Affinity.

Game 1 he's got a lot of chaff and two Ravagers. I gradually chew through everything, Path his modular targets, and get favorable trades using Selfless Spirit until he's out of gas. Affinity doesn't do well against fliers. I have to beat him down from 32 thanks to huge Vault Skirges.

Game 2 is much the same. He has a lot of Ornithopters and three Cranial Platings but nothing to boost toughness. I have Phantom out and trade Sailors and Wanderers until he's out of creatures. Queller grabs his last-ditch Etched Champion.

Sideboarding:

-3 Force of Negation

-2 Aether Vial

-3 Unsettled Mariner

+1 Path to Exile

+2 Detention Sphere

+2 Stony Silence

+3 Auriok Champion

Standing are posted, and there are four undefeated players. I'm in 17th place with appalling tiebreakers, meaning for me to make it in I need four winning players ahead of me to drop dead of heart attacks. That being extremely improbable, I draw the last round so I can get my prize tickets and go home.

The Top 8 was the following morning, and I wasn't there, so I don't know its makeup. I do know that one BR Hollow Phoenix deck made it in. The pilot was running astronomically hot, with basically ideal openings all day, and that luck also meant that he wasn't punished for a number of misplays I witnessed. Better lucky than good....

Lessons Learned

The metagame may be in flux, but that doesn't mean players are following suit. The field I hit looked identical to what I was seeing two years ago, minor details aside. Players keep their decks for years in nonrotating formats, so I'm guessing that faced with uncertainty, the other players fell back on their old banners.

Eldrazi Tron was very popular based on the assumption that Jund is back in force. That Chalice of the Void is very good against Phoenix decks is also a huge bonus. I don't know how relevant either fact was on the day since I didn't see much Jund or Phoenix running around. I do know that there were lots of Moon prison decks hoping to prey on Tron and Jund there, and they did poorly because Blood Moon isn't a hard lock.

On the Deck

I was generally happy with my play, though I made some sideboarding mistakes. I thought Force was bad against Eldrazi, so I cut it for Damping Sphere. In hindsight that was a mistake, since everytime I got something going Game 2 it was crushed by All is Dust. Sphere was very ineffective since Eldrazi plays far more lands than normal Tron and doesn't really need the acceleration.

On the maindeck, I was frustrated by flood, but that's not a solvable problem. I can't run accelerants, and the deck is mana hungry. I can't really cut basics for Horizon lands because of Field and Moon. I cut Mariner almost every match, but that wasn't unexpected. I didn't hit the matchups the changeling is good in. I rarely needed Force but always brought in Path, so in future I'd cut a Force for Path.

Data Acquisition

With the results from the SCG Philadelphia Classic last weekend and a Modern MCQ this weekend, the data is building to sufficiently analyze the metagame. Then we can start to see the actual impact of all the change that Modern's undergone.

The Faerie Trickery of MTG Finance

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We finally know the name of this fall’s Standard set: Throne of Eldraine! I like the name, and judging by the artwork that’s been released, it has the potential to be another smash hit. A set modeled off stories by The Brothers Grimm and classic faerie tales is something yet to be explored by Wizards of the Coast. My mind goes straight to another set with cards modeled off classic stories…

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shahrazad

Ignoring the musings of an Old School player, this set is sure to be popular.

But set flavor and aesthetic isn’t why people visit this website. The real question is, what is the financial relevance of what we know so far and where can money be made?

MTG Finance Groupthink

groupthink

noun

1  the practice of thinking or making decisions as a group in a way that discourages creativity or individual responsibility.

It only took one image of an alleged invite to get the MTG Finance community swarming like a clique of faeries.

This invitation had a picture of faeries and suddenly MTG Finance swooped in and started speculating on cards. The results are sad, really, considering we still knew virtually nothing about the set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Secluded Glen
There was an error retrieving a chart for Willow Priestess

Shortly after this chaos ensued, someone asked Maro a relevant question via his Blogatog.

Mark Rosewater himself stated that Faeries won’t be present in Throne of Eldraine at the volume of importance that people were assuming. Since July 18, we’ve seen a steady flow of artwork showcasing the set’s theme. There may be a faerie or two in the mix, but I didn’t see anything that would encourage me to rush out and buy a terrible Homelands card.

This highlights one of my issues with MTG Finance. Don’t get me wrong: I’ve been grinding Magic cards for years now, and I am an active writer for this site. You’ll see me in the Insider Discord sharing ideas and talking about the next trend. But lately, I’ve become impatient with this behavior whereby people pile into spec targets based on a loose hypothesis.

This isn’t the first time people spent money on a premature theory and it won’t be the last. MTG Finance is very good at finding any thread of possibility that gets the group in front of a trend. Sometimes, even if the trend doesn’t manifest itself, the community still imparts its damaging effects on the market.

For example, foil Secluded Glen may be a more expensive card going forward thanks to this speculation. A combination of short supply (foil cards from Lorwyn can’t be all that plentiful) and price memory could be enough to double this card’s price permanently despite the only slight increase in interest from the new set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Secluded Glen

Never mind the fact that speculators didn’t fully think through what faerie cards would even make these cards suddenly better. It would take a specific group of cards—and a lack of a reprint—to suddenly make Secluded Glen playable in a competitive format. It would take a more significant faerie theme in the set to generate enough traction for Commander interest. And I don’t know what miracle would be needed for Willow Priestess to suddenly see play. At least that one is on the Reserved List (disclaimer: after seeing the spike, I found a few copies on ABU Games and picked them up with some credit I had sitting around…why not?).

The Best Defense…

How can we equip ourselves to combat this speculative behavior, resulting in a FOMO-type emotion as card prices spike? In this case, the phrase “The Best Defense is a good offense” doesn’t apply. While this may feel like military conflict, this is not the scenario where an offensive is merited. For example, I would not recommend speculating on other faerie cards in an attempt to get ahead of the next spike.

Instead, my best advice to you is to do one of two things.

  1. If you already own copies of the cards that are spiking, I’d recommend selling into the spike. Thinking about this strictly from a numbers standpoint, the odds of these spikes going even higher and becoming the next hottest trend are very slim. The odds of a significant retraction in price are great. Therefore, from an expected value standpoint, the right move is surely to sell into hype.
  2. If you don’t own any copies of the spiking cards, your best bet is to ignore the buyout altogether. Unless you truly think we have enough information to suggest a measurable shift towards Faerie strategies in non-rotating formats, I see no merit to speculating on faerie cards. Such behavior is reckless, risky, and likely to result in a loss of money.

There are two exceptions I can think of to the rules I recommended above. First, if a card is on the Reserved List or unlikely to be reprinted in some form, and you want to own the copies for personal use anyways, then buying copies of a card before at their old price is fine. I had some ABU credit to burn recently and I was placing an order already—adding a few Willow Priestesses at the old price seemed like a no-brainer. I expect I’ll be able to buylist these for a couple bucks to Card Kingdom in response to the spike. But also, these are on the Reserved List and are unlikely to go anywhere.

Alternatively, if you’ve been wanting a promo Bitterblossom for your cube or Commander deck, now may be a smart time to grab that copy. The card hasn’t spiked dramatically (yet), and there’s no telling how much more silly hype gets drummed up as spoiler season begins. Since you want the card anyway, I see little harm in pulling the trigger now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bitterblossom

The second exception is very narrow. If you can find copies of a spiked card at the old price, and can acquire them quickly, you may be able to sell into the hype profitably. For example, if you noticed a spike in Secluded Glen and your LGS had copies in stock for under $5, there would be little harm in picking a few up. You could list them for sale at $10 and try to sell into the hype. If that endeavor failed, it’s unlikely these would drop below their old price, so you wouldn’t necessarily lose money. Worst case, you could ship the cards to Card Kingdom’s buylist and break even by taking their store credit option.

Wrapping It Up

Some folks may already know better, but this seems like a great time to remind folks not to chase silly speculation. The hive mind that is MTG Finance will swarm over any opportunity to make a buck, and the recent run on faerie cards was no exception. We saw multiple faerie cards spike. While something like Secluded Glen makes some sense, I’m not sure I can see a world where Willow Priestess remains $4. It’s from Homelands, folks. Cards from that set won’t be worth much for years to come (this coming from someone who loves the set).

Mark Rosewater himself stated there’s not really a faerie theme in Throne of Eldraine. The images depicting this set look amazing and I’m really excited to see more. But I don’t believe we have enough information with which to speculate. Chasing faerie cards based on a single image is peak foolish on the part of the MTG Finance community.

My advice to folks observing these buyouts is to ignore the noise. There’s no way these spikes stick, and some players who gave into FOMO will probably be regretting their purchases in a couple short weeks. If you can find cards at the old price and can either out them quickly or use them in your decks, then you have my blessing to pursue. But if these exceptions don’t apply, then stay far away. Don’t buy into the hype, fueling profits for speculators while losing money in the process.

Keep this in mind when spoiler season begins. We know very little about the new set, but there’s one sure thing: speculators will jump on any loose hypothesis they can to make a buck.

…

Sigbits

  • Foil Wrenn and Six is still climbing! Card Kingdom is still out of stock with a $379.99 price point! Their buylist is “only” $190, which could be why they aren’t getting many in stock. The more I watch videos with this card in action, the more I think a $500 price point for foils is possible.
  • For a hot minute, Card Kingdom was paying $95 for Near Mint Alliances Force of Wills. But that high buy price didn’t last, and now their buy price is down to $80. That said, they do still offer $90 on Eternal Masters copies of the card. I know this card sees play in Commander, but I have to imagine this is a sign that there is at least some Legacy demand for the card.
  • Masters 25 copies of Jace, the Mind Sculptor buylist for $100 again. All versions of this card fluctuate between $80 and $100 on Card Kingdom’s buylist, and this one seems to be the most in-demand at Card Kingdom for now.

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