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Real Friends: Horizons Pet-Deck Update

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It's maybe been said to the point of platitude at this point, but Modern is a format that rewards deck mastery. At least for me, it's also way more fun when you can find a deck that ticks all your preference boxes. I've been playing Eldrazi Stompy since Thought-Knot Seer was spoiled, and Counter-Cat since before I started writing for Modern Nexus, let alone designed the Temur Delver deck that got me the gig in the first place. Today, we'll update both decks with cards from Modern Horizons and M20.

Never Leaving London

I wrote that Colorless Eldrazi Stompy was better positioned than perhaps any Modern deck to benefit from the London mulligan. And indeed, despite Eldrazi Tron being far better suited to abuse the format's hottest new planeswalker, Colorless continues to clock results.

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Eternal Scourge
2 Endless One
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Reality Smasher
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Planeswalkers

2 Karn, the Great Creator

Artifact

4 Serum Powder
4 Chalice of the Void
1 Smuggler's Copter

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Gemstone Caverns
4 Zhalfirin Void
3 Mutavault
2 Blinkmoth Nexus
3 Ghost Quarter
3 Blast Zone
2 Wastes

Sideboard

3 Spatial Contortion
2 Gut Shot
1 Surgical Extraction
4 Relic of Progenitus
1 Ratchet Bomb
1 Sorcerous Spyglass
1 Crucible of Worlds
1 Mystic Forge
1 Mycosynth Lattice

If You Karn't Take the Heat...

It's been three months since Karn, the Great Creator was spoiled, and since I outlined its virtues in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy. The walker has been legal for less time, but players have had ample time to tinker with different configurations. The verdict on Karn seems split, with some successful lists forsaking him altogether and others packing as many as three mainboard copies.

The main argument against the walker is that it doesn't fit with our primary gameplan. Colorless Eldrazi Stompy wants to slam a lock piece and then clean up the mess with big dudes, applying pressure via raw bulk while disrupting the opponent. In this way, it offers a go-tall analogue to Humans' go-wide strategy. This point has been bolstered by the London mulligan, which lets players execute whatever gameplan they prefer with heightened accuracy. We used to open Temple most of the time; now, we open Temple all the time. So why dip into a Plan B at all?

My reasons for including Karn haven't changed. I'll concede that the walker doesn't fit with our primary goals, and somewhat clashes with the London—between countermagic and hand disruption, sculpting a gameplan around a Karn opened or drawn early isn't very attractive; the walker is best peeled off the top once games have stabilized, or as a utility failsafe lying in the deck. Rather, I have enough faith in my good matchups to not mind sometimes watering down my Game 1 plan with a couple potentially-dead Karns. We already do so with cards like Serum Powder. Karn adds to the density, but it can simply be sided out post-board when it's no good.

The reward for maining Karn is that previously impossible matchups become feasible. Whir Prison has become Urza's Thopter-Sword, and a resolved Karn makes life as tricky for that deck as it does for dedicated Bridge strategies. Besides, the Mycosynth lock is still an option against decks wielding Ensnaring Bridge. Another artifact deck we could almost never beat pre-Karn is Hardened Scales, which still exists post-Horizons. And UW Control, also a lacking matchup, is a great place for Karn to shine. Similarly, Jund's comeback bodes well for value-packed haymakers like Karn.

Landing on Two Feet

I'd also like to discuss my land choices, which are becoming less and less accepted. Many players have opted to cut Zhalfirin Void to make room for more manlands and Blast Zone. While I agree that Blast Zone is nuts in this deck, I think Void is a poor cut with Karn in the deck. We want to draw the walker naturally at a certain point in the game, and Void helps us do that. Additionally, since Karn pulls us more towards a midrange role, Void shines brighter, as our games are extended by a turn or two on average. The London indeed grants us more consistency, but I don't think responding by cutting our existing consistency tools is necessarily a justified way to celebrate.

I'm up to 3 Blast Zone and don't anticipate going down any time soon. Having mass removal on an untapped land is just superb in this deck, no matter how clunky it might be. I've had to learn to sequence better with Zone in the deck, at times taking turns off to prevent dying a few turns down the road to something I could have sniped a bit earlier (e.g. Thing in the Ice or a planeswalker).

Ghost Quarter feels less relevant than it has in the past, but is still a necessity at 3 thanks to Tron. The five manlands are as vital as ever, and I would play a fourth Mutavault if I had space. I think the most expendable land is the second Gemstone Caverns, but right now, would rather double the odds of opening it on the draw than slightly increase my threat density. While I once had a 24th land in the deck, I've gone back to Smuggler's Copter, which does too much for us at 1 to omit.

Other Choices

Endless One is still here, although other players overwhelmingly prefer Matter Reshaper. I think the three-drop slot in this deck is a bit clogged, and always has been; the going-long points gained from Karn help alleviate Reshaper's value, and Endless pulls weight in the matchups Karn flounders. Besides, the card has been phenomenal with the London.

In the sideboard, I'm sticking with Gut Shot, planeswalker sniper extraordinaire that also excels against small creature decks. After War of the Spark's release, Gut has become even more vital, as Modern decks have come to increasingly rely on planeswalkers.

Finally, Mystic Forge makes an appearance as the first M20 card to enter Colorless. I've long wanted a pure value grab for Karn, and so far the best option has been Crucible of Worlds. But plenty of games came up where fetching Crucible wouldn't net any value, such as when I lacked the utility lands to make good use of it. Forge lets us draw two or more cards per turn, and its exile ability makes it better than something like Experimental Frenzy by getting us through additional lands. We can also bin Serum Powders we don't want to cast and throw Eternal Scourge directly into exile to dig deeper. Running Forge makes Karn a more significant threat against control and midrange.

Nine Lives, Maybe More

Another old favorite that I'll probably never truly relinquish, no matter how bad it seems and in fact is, Counter-Cat has also received a significant makeover lately.

Counter-Cat, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

3 Wrenn and Six

Artifacts

2 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

4 Path to Exile
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Mutagenic Growth
2 Spell Pierce
2 Mana Leak

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
3 Light Up the Stage
2 Faithless Looting

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Wooded Foothills
1 Scalding Tarn
1 Temple Garden
1 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Breeding Pool
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Forest
1 Island

Sideboard

2 Damping Sphere
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Rest in Peace
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Hazoret the Fervent
1 Snapcaster Mage
2 Pyroclasm
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Destructive Revelry
1 Veil of Summer
1 Fry

Mainboard Alterations

There are three major changes to Counter-Cat's mainboard: threats, cantrips, and lands.

In terms of threats, Wrenn and Six joins the fray. Domri, Anarch of Bolas also performed well in this deck, and I ran a copy after War of the Spark. When Wrenn came out, I tried splitting the walkers, but found myself wanting Wrenn more every time. While Domri is a nice mid-game board-breaker, Wrenn fundamentally changes the way the deck plays.

Tarmogoyf has always been critical in Counter-Cat as a follow-up to our one-drop dying. Therefore, as Goyf's stock fell, so did the deck's. I addressed this issue by making Goyfs bigger via Bauble and Wrenn and by increasing the number of Goyfs—again, by adding Wrenn. Goyf used to be the perfect funeral procession for a killed Cat or Insect, but Wrenn is just as good, plopping down a value engine that ticks up towards a wincon and pressuring opponents significantly. It hurts linear combo decks less, since it's not as fast against them, but making land drops still gets us to the point faster where we can drop threats while holding up interaction. Fair decks, on the other hand, have a doozy of a time removing Wrenn, especially through our walls of heavy-duty removal.

I was immediately impressed with Wrenn in GR Moon, where it revitalized my interest in another of my longstanding brews. In that deck, it combines with Faithless Looting to keep the cards coming. I ended up having to add Lootings to Counter-Cat as well. Otherwise, Wrenn would offer us a grip full of fetchlands in the mid-game and nothing to do with them. Still, Wrenn lets us cut a land, and makes the London mulligan much easier for us than for other decks—we can just bottom extra lands without much of a care once we find Wrenn. Bauble also alleviates the low land count.

Light Up the Stage is another red cantrip new to the deck. With eight one-drops, Wrenn to ping, trampling beaters, and a set of Bolts, spectacle is quite easy to enable. Here, Light Up is like a super-powered Chart a Course, churning through the deck and gassing us up for one mana. I've even recast Light Up with Snapcaster Mage for full Divination price in some matchups and been impressed by the results.

To accommodate all these extra red spells, I had to add Sacred Foundry. Pool-Foundry is now a common and adequate shock pair, as we've got plenty to do with a red land and often even want double red in the mid-game. The colors are pretty even, save for white, which exists just for Path and Nacatl.

Sideboard Tweaks

Many sideboard cards are the same as in previous versions, so I invite you to take a look at the Counter-Cat archives for more information on those. Still, there are a few newcomers:

  • Damping Sphere is great against so many decks. We cantrip a lot, but a Sphere in play doesn't just beat us as it does other decks. Great against Tron, Phoenix, Storm, Neoform, etc.
  • Rest in Peace is actually supportable. It's just not for the Jund matchup. Against the graveyard decks, having Rest in play means we just win until they remove it, and then our Goyfs are re-activated and we've stolen heaps of time.
  • Fry roasts Lyra Dawnbringer, Thing in the Ice, Mantis Rider, and Teferi, Hero of Dominaria, among other things. A removal spell for Humans that's also great against UW.
  • Veil of Summer is an elegant answer to interactive decks, fading Fatal Push and targeted discard as well as Liliana of the Veil's -2. It's also strong vs. control for its applications against countermagic, and can counter random stuff sometimes (I hit a Mind Funeral the other day). I love me a one-mana Cryptic, and Veil is one of the more reliable we've gotten.

How Many of Us

These two decks aren't leaving my collection maybe ever—I love them too much! With Hogaak gone and M20 just released, it's the calm before the storm, as we're about to see a whole lot of new tech enter Modern. In the meantime, have your favorite decks enjoyed a boost from the format's recent newcomers?

Fall Set Preview: The Royal Courts of Eldraine

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You thought previews were over - Magic players!? Just when we thought the whirlwind of news, previews, and hype were over - here we go again. By the way: we still have Commander 2019 just around the corner as well.

Maro let us know that we would have a look at the newest addition to Magic sets at SDCC. The wait is over - enter "Throne of Eldraine"!

From the imagery and naming, we don't know all that much. But, what we do know is what appears to be the return of a fan favorite, and iconic tribe of past formats: Faeries! The Fae have garnered plenty of adulation and has produced some of Magic's most powerful cards. Such as Bitterblossom, Vendilion Clique, and Spellstutter Sprite. It's fantastic to see Magic: The Gathering return to a familiar fantasy landscape. While the bustling cities of Ravnica and a trip back to Dominaria were all well and good; there's nothing quite like being enveloped in some of the brief fantasy Eldraine images we've already been shown.

Thanks to the various sources over Facebook, Reddit and ScreenRant - we've seen some additional promotional images. Assuming we're going to learn even more before the weekend is over - and I for one am ecstatic to know more. While Maro confirmed that this plane is not Lorwyn, it would be fantastic to see some similar art direction. From a quick glance, there's a genuine chance that's what we're going to see unfold!

Gathering some past information and tidbits on what could be this set, Mark Rosewater has explained in previous works - that the plane is new, and that Garruk could play a major role in this new set and plane.

We're also aware of what appears to be the set symbol:

-

It would be remiss on this particular outlet not to talk about how this could immediately impact the Magic marketplace. Spoiler; it already has. While some players genuinely have negative emotions (and rightfully so, I may add) about card pricing increasing rapidly due to the nature of an announcement like this - I would like to remind folks that there are record numbers of Magic players out there.

They're just as excited as you are, and buying cards preemptively among many other types of players. While there are some who are genuinely only buying for non-personal use, it's likely that there are many more buying in the hopes that new powerful interactions will surface with some of the existing cards throughout Magic's timeline. The one good thought to keep in mind, that many of these cards that are bought-out/sold-out from the hype of a new set- only a fraction of the card(s) truly become better.

I'll leave you with this: here's a shortlist of cards that have been discussed to potentially see renewed interest, albeit it may only be temporary. Again; we haven't seen anything but a promotional art and name at the time of this article being published.

You Should Be Drafting More on MTGO (Seriously!)

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I. A New Financial Outlook for Drafting

My very first article on Quiet Speculation painstakingly detailed how MTGO was becoming more and more expensive a hobby for drafters due to fundamental changes in the economy introduced by Lee Sharpe. Today I'm happy to inform you that the reverse is becoming more and more true. MTGO is offering better value for drafters than ever before, which means that it costs less to draft on MTGO than at any time in recent memory. Drafts are less stressful, and I'm enjoying playing MTGO more than I have in a few years.

Have a gander at this:

The cost to draft on MTGO has never been cheaper! Before Battle for Zendikar (2015), drafting on MTGO tended to cost about $3.33, assuming you were drafting in the equivalent to today's intermediate league and had a 50% winrate. From Battle for Zendikar through Core 2019 (2018), drafting on MTGO was incredibly expensive, usually clocking in around $4.25 to $4.50. Open Beta on MTG Arena changed that, as redemption demand outpaced drafting demand. Now it costs only $2.69 to draft the current set, Core 2020, a significant improvement over drafting even Theros and Khans of Tarkir, the first two sets I drafted on MTGO.

What this means is that Magic Online now offers a variety of draft formats that cost you the player about half of what it did just a year ago. You can draft War of the Spark for $0.42 (yes, $0.42!!). You can draft Modern Horizons for $3.54, and Core 2020 for $2.69.  And it's strange to me that this change has received such little press. I hope this article will make people aware that the drafting experience on MTGO has never been better. Folks who play Constructed on MTGO should give drafting another look; Folks who play Arena or paper should also consider hopping on MTGO if they enjoy drafting or want to get better at it.

The change in rake tells much the same story:

Before Battle for Zendikar, rakes were usually about 27% to 30%. From Battle for Zendikar through Core 2019, rakes usually were hovering around 35%. I'm happy to say that War of the Spark and Core 2020 both have clocked in under 30%, and we can expect that to continue with future sets. This graph highlights how Modern Horizons, in particular, is excellent value. The rake for Modern Horizons is 14.70% right now, which is historically low for any set and is particularly good for Masters-level sets. Modern Horizons will be available to draft on MTGO through mid-August.

Lower rakes also mean that the winrate needed to break even (i.e. "go infinite") has declined. For the past several years it has required an insane 65-70% winrate to break even on Magic Online drafts. That number has returned to a far more normal 60%.

II. Why is Drafting Less Expensive Now?

The main reason that drafting costs less now than it did a while ago is that Magic Arena reduced the amount of drafting being done on Magic Online. So, while demand for redemption has remained the same, the amount of drafting being done has declined, resulting in higher overall prices.

Until June, Guilds of Ravnica was also over $100. Overall it's too early to tell how Standard sets will fare a year after print in this post-Arena world. Will they bounce back after rotation in the Fall when Standard demand is at its peak like previous sets? Will Standard continue to be the second most popular format on MTGO? These are questions I don't yet know the answers to (my hunch is that yes, Standard will remain broadly popular and yes, I expect Guilds of Ravnica to bounce back after rotation). But what has heretofore been true is that sets now remain over $100 for several months after their release instead of three days after their release. This gives drafters significantly more time to enjoy and experience the format. No longer do you need to be anti-social and block off the first week of a draft format in order to maximize value.

In fact, both Ravnica Allegiance and War of the Spark have been cheaper to draft after the release of the next set. War of the Spark's current $162 set value is responsible for it becoming the cheapest set to draft in the history of Magic Online.

III. Will This Trend Continue?

Wizards has been making important improvements in the drafting experience on Magic Online, and I think the popularity of Arena has spurred changes that benefit Magic Online players. Wizards knows that if you can get two free drafts per week on Arena, the value you get in MTGO offerings needs to be better if players are going to continue doing MTGO drafts. Wizards increased the EV of all flashback and phantom drafts by adding a treasure chest as a reward, making these events more attractive. It was also no mere happenstance that Wizards introduced Modern Horizons tokens as a way to draft the set at a 20% discount. Expect these sorts of trends to continue.

The main way Wizards could hurt the newly improved value of drafting is by curtailing the amount of product able to be redeemed. I don't think it's in Wizard's best interests to do this, and it looks like Wizards thus far has been happy trimming around the edges and hoping that the higher prices of sets will reduce the amount of product redeemed overall.

Frankly, the market isn't behaving rationally, in part because people just aren't aware of the new financial reality of drafting on MTGO. Even though the value of drafting has gone up, drafting on MTGO is less popular now than it was 6 months ago, much less 12 months ago. To be sure Magic Arena has siphoned away a lot of drafting demand, but it wouldn't surprise me if overall drafting participation on MTGO increases some in the next several months as the player base catches on to the fact that drafting on the platform is cheaper than ever before.

Overall, though, I expect this to be the new reality going forward and as an MTGO drafter, I couldn't be happier.

IV. Signing Off

Thanks for reading! If you have any questions, leave a comment down below or message me in Discord. How have y'all been enjoying Modern Horizons and Core 2020 drafts? Is there any topic you'd like to see me cover in the next few weeks? Please let me know!

Rest, Relaxation, and Reflection on Time Management

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Hello, Readers!

It's been a while since I sat down and put some keystrokes and thoughts into an article for you. This hasn't been for lack of ideas or lack of opportunity, either (there have been two full set releases since I last wrote about Niv-Mizzet Reborn). I was simply burnt out and needed a little mental recharge. Between a newborn son, a hectic (but very positive and successful) series of initiatives at work, and continuing to scale my online storefront (@ChiStyleGaming), I had my plate full and I overwhelmed myself a bit.

But...

And now that I am, I want to share some lessons from my time off and also provide a handful of cards I am currently watching as we head into the doldrums of summer.

What did I use two months off to do?

The most important thing I accomplished since my last article was learning some basics on how to be a father. Our son, Liam Thomas, was born on May 2nd, and since then I've learned all about sleep deprivation, changing diapers, and how to avoid total meltdowns. In all seriousness, it has been the most rewarding ten weeks of my entire life.

It also created a new opportunity to reexamine where I prioritize time and reevaluate how I value it. As a parent, I quickly learned the world is no longer about me and my desires; it's all about Liam. This isn't a bad thing, though. It's simply an adjustment. Honestly, it is a ton of fun watching a little one learn and grow each passing day (it moves too fast!) and I wouldn't trade these moments for anything. That said, the adjustment to fatherhood has forced me to be precise with how I spend the moments I get to myself.

I've cut back on things that I used to do often which weren't producing meaningful benefits or results (ex: video games). I also found ways to up my game when it came to repetitive tasks like my morning routine; it turns out I was wasting about 4-5 minutes every day! I now get coffee brewing while I take a shower and brush my teeth in the shower instead of before/after. That effectively gets all three things done in 7-8 minutes compared to the previous 12-15 minutes. That time saved goes to Liam or my wife or maybe a quick tweet. No matter how I spend it, it's time I couldn't have spent even 12 weeks earlier because it didn't exist.

That may seem ridiculous to think about, but imagine wasting 2.5 hours a month on inefficiencies in your routine! It can add up fast, especially if you find multiple inefficiencies, whether they be at work, school, or otherwise. Every few minutes you can save by increasing your efficiency opens the door to new possibilities on where to spend that time.

If you take nothing else away from this article, please consider this: the last two months made me realize just how much we take time for granted. I encourage you to reexamine how you spend your time to make sure it is well-allocated to your priorities and that you are happy with how you use it! I found that this has made me happier because I feel more productive and accomplished each day.

Ask yourself this: are you able to save a few minutes? How could you spend that newly acquired time? I'd love to hear more about your interactions with this thought-process on Twitter, the QS Discord, or the comments below. DMs are always open!

Chris, did you really give up Magic for two-months?

No, no, no... one doesn't simply escape Magic! I'm no exception.

I used the last two months to focus on scaling my business, Chicago Style Gaming, and took a little time off from producing articles and content. I've worked hard over the last 18 months to grow CSG into a trusted brand in the community. The last two months included me making my first major collection purchase in the last ten years and it also involved the formalization of an LLC so I can begin focusing on CSG as its own entity (i.e. separating it entirely from my personal finances). Both of those events were huge learning opportunities for me as I continue to transition into a full-time online reseller.

It's always an exciting time to be an entrepreneur but in the current MTG landscape, I can't imagine there being a better time to open a shop (online or otherwise). The game is so healthy - players are extremely engaged even as the summer lull is upon us - and Hasbro ($HAS) earnings continue to highlight Magic: the Gathering as one of the most meaningful growth levers of the entire company. I'm looking forward to continuing my efforts with Chicago Style Gaming and appreciate all of your support along the way!

Specs, the things we enjoy the most...

The other thing I did was monitor all of the set releases for commander specs I may acquire as prices deflate over the summer. I hardly acquired anything over the past eight weeks (aside from the aforementioned collection), but I did buy a couple foils from Modern Horizons. This small purchase was just before our QS Insider-only cast on June 21st.

The short-list of purchases I made included (name, quantity bought, price-per-card):

  • Morophon, the Boundless (three copies, $38)
  • Yawgmoth, Thran Physician (two copies, $78)
  • Generous Gift (two copies, $5)

Chaz and I discussed a three-month runway on the 6/21 cast where we felt supply would dry out on Modern Horizons and foil playables will appreciate (note: the above list is a not the complete one discussed on cast - join QS Insider to get a full look at that cast and many others like it!). I'll be updating these purchases on October 1st to see how we did.

Chris's Commander Corner for the Summer Lull

I have a list of cards on my watch list which I'd like to share for you. These are all cards worth speculating on and that I also plan to acquire for personal use. Some may have already bottomed as recently as last week, but in general, I think their appreciation will be steady over the next 6-12 months (note: timeframes vary and are noted on a per-card basis).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset's Reversal

I was extremely high on Narset's Reversal from the moment it was spoiled:

I targeted foils reaching $5-6 and we are SO close to getting there. Copies have quietly descended under $10 for most small-scale vendors on TCGPlayer. Card Kingdom continues to hold onto a $10.99 price, but their supply is strong on these as indicated by them not buying foils of the card currently. I'll be holding out for a further price drop to my original target (see above screenshot) before acquiring copies. With MTGO redemption in full force, I think we get there in August before "reversing" back up to $10 over the subsequent six months.

As an aside, I called Narset's Reversal as the most played War of the Spark card according to EDHREC; it is currently sitting in third place behind its counterpart Narset, Parter of Veils and a popular land, Karn's Bastion. Not bad.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashiok, Dream Render

Ashiok has four important characteristics that have me adding it to my watch list:

  1. Sees play in every Eternal format: according to www.mtgstocks.com, Ashiok appears in 12 Modern, 2 Legacy, and 1 Vintage list, and it currently ranks fifth on most-played list from War of the Spark on EDHREC
  2. Does something unique: shutting off fetches and tutors has only been printed on a few cards in MTG history and never on a planeswalker before, putting Ashiok into a league of its own
  3. Only gets better as more "search library" cards are printed: Wizards of the Coast indicated they would stay away from fetches in Standard but in Modern Horizons they printed cards like Prismatic Vista and Sisay, Weatherlight Captain which tells me "searching libraries" is a card-design that is here to stay
  4. Part of a collectible series: Ashiok is one of 36 walkers from War of the Spark, a set I suspect many collectors will want to complete, which could drain a little extra foil supply and make the price on playable War of the Spark walkers rebound more efficiently over time

While reprint risk always looms (especially since many are predicting a return to Theros in the near future), I like Ashiok for potential long-term gains. I'm targeting foils at $8 but this may take longer than three months to hit. Buylists are still strong on foil Ashiok (CK is paying almost $10 in credit), and it is entirely possible the floor may never get lower than now. Long-term, figure 12 months from here (and barring reprint of course), I see Ashiok, Dream Render foils having $15+ upside.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Winds of Abandon

Winds of Abandon is flying under the radar for EDH players so far as it only ranks 18th on the EDHREC most-played list for Modern Horizons. The drawbacks of being sorcery speed and ramping your opponents with tapped basic lands might be enough to keep this card down. Remember though, there are very few one-sided board-wipes in all of Magic and the keyword "exile" is crucial in commander gameplay.

The comparison that comes to mind for me (and Winds of Abandon was clearly designed around) is Cyclonic Rift. They both have the "overload" keyword to provide situational flexibility and from experience, I can confidently say "overloaded" Cyclonic Rift wins games. I suspect Winds of Abandon will do similar things as players test it more in their commander circles.

I dislike non-foils as a speculative target because Winds of Abandon will be extremely easy to reprint and could see one as early as Commander 2019. That said, a reprint in a commander set would actually be a boon for the Modern Horizons foils because players who buy precons and look to upgrade over time may be the first to truly recognize the power of Winds of Abandon.

The floor on Winds of Abandon foils was likely about 2-3 weeks ago when it was touching $8-10 on TCGPlayer. That said, the buylist values aren't particularly strong (averaging around $6-7 currently), so it is possible it could get back to $8-10 before supply is completely soaked up. Once supply on the foils is tested, I see this becoming a $15-20 card, airing closer to the high end of that range. I don't think it will take more than 3-5 months for this to happen, so if you want a foil copy, add it to your watchlist now and don't hesitate if the price makes sense for you.

Quick list of other cards to consider:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Who Shakes the World

I love Nissa foils sub-$10. She is seeing play all over Standard which might be propping her price up a bit, but the long-term appeal of this Nissa in EDH is real. This is not an urgent pickup, but at rotation next year I can envision a scenario where we look her up and say, "wow, Nissa, Who Shakes the World foils are $20!?"

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rhythm of the Wild

Rhythm is one of the better uncommons printed in the last several years for EDH purposes. Tribal themes are hugely popular among commander players and Rhythm is hands-down one of the best cards to include in any tribal deck that can run it. It is ranked third on the EDHREC most-played list from Ravnica Allegiance yet it has quietly dropped to $7 for NM foils. Add this to your watchlist and be patient; I see Rhythm of the Wild foils dropping a little further to as low as $5 in August before a 6-12 month stretch of price-increases has it ascend back to $10.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vindictive Vampire

Sleeper alert! Vindictive Vampire is already low supply, ranks top 10 in the Ravnica Allegiance list of most played in EDH, and it belongs to one of the more popular tribes in all of MTG. The card was already drained by Teysa Karlov commander players but found a second home recently with Yawgmoth, Thran Physician. I love buying into foil Vindictive Vampire as a penny-stock, though it won't be a penny-stock for much longer. I expect within 3-6 months these will be steady sellers at $5.

Wrapping Up

It's been a busy few months for me and I couldn't be happier. I appreciate the support from those of you who asked how things were going with the family, work, etc. I also appreciate you all hanging in there over the past couple months without me providing you information along the way. I plan on being back to status quo with activity and engagement moving forward, and I will be in Indianapolis covering GenCon 2019 this year. It's a special weekend for me as it will mark my one-year anniversary since I began writing for Quiet Speculation - Sigmund gave me a trial gig last year at GenCon and I have never looked back.

If you'll be in Indianapolis for GenCon, please (!) hit me up on Twitter or on QS Insider Discord! I would love to meet any of you there and maybe we can even play some games of Commander! I'm bringing tons of decks, so just let me know.

Until next time, see you on the battlefield!

No-Gaak: Early Metagame Observations

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With Core 2020 and the London mulligan finally legal, the metagame can begin to take shape. Begin being the key word there. So much has changed in Modern over the past month that it is impossible to predict what exactly is changing.

At the end of this week, GP Denver looms. I'm not playing the main event since it's Standard and I'm not interested in Teferi.format. Instead, I'm preparing for the Modern MCQ on Saturday. This has proven rather difficult due to the metagame's lack of definition. Today I'll be going through what I've observed so far and what conclusions I've reached.

Thin Data

Normally, I'd fall back on the available data to draw informed conclusions about the metagame taking shape. However, that really isn't possible. At the moment all I have to go on are a 5-0 deck dump, which has no statistical value, and a single SCG Classic. The Classic is interesting and a decent piece of data, but it is only a single point. Therefore, the only conclusions I could draw would be about the event itself and not the entire metagame.

As a result, I'm forced to rely primarily on personal observations of both my local paper metagame and what I've seen on MTGO. I realize that my experiences may not be representative. Even if they don't accurately model the entire metagame, I'm getting one look at what players are thinking. And in short, it's the Wild West out there.

Dredge Rises Again

First thing's first: I have bad news for anyone sick of graveyard decks. Dredge is back like it never left. My LGS, Black Gold, has never had many Dredge decks because we all pack lots of hate at all times, but I'm seeing plenty online. Dredge never played Bridge from Below, so it's escaped another round of bannings unscathed. The only reason it declined from view was Hogaak inhabited the same space, but was better. Now the Necropolis is gone, Dredge is reclaiming its place.

For the most part, they're all just pre-Horizons lists. Dredge has been around a while and has proven itself, so it makes sense to trot the same list out again. However, there are those who are trying to innovate. In what I've seen so far, this mainly entails trying to fit Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis into existing shells. While I think it could work, so far I haven't actually seen it happen. The opportunity cost of Hogaak is pretty high for Dredge.

Others are trying to adapt Bridgevine to a Bridgeless world. While these lists have been fascinating to watch, they're significantly worse than Bridgevine, and in my experience much less consistent than Dredge. I admire the dedication, but it looks like wasted effort.

New World, Old Rules

Regardless, it's obvious that graveyard decks aren't going anywhere in Modern, so neither should your hate. I've seen way too many players cutting their hate assuming they don't need it. Never just concede the Dredge matchup, and don't forget that Surgical Extraction isn't very effective against Dredge. You'll need Tormod's Crypt or better.

The other thing to remember is how to play against Dredge, especially when timing your hate. Dredge consists of a lot of enablers and a few key cards. You want to time one-shot hate to get as many of those cards as possible. Individual dredgers are bad targets; Dredge always has more. Instead, you need to target Prized Amalgam and Conflagrate. The former is the primary threat and the later is the real power card. Don't crack your Crypt unless you have to, or can get at least two of these cards.

Jund Is Back

The other big trend I've seen is that BGx is back in force. Last week, roughly half the field was some form of BGx deck. I saw similar numbers online. There was classic Bloodbraid Jund, straight Rock, control Jund, an Assault Loam/Jund hybrid, and plenty of Wrenn and Six Jund decks. This wasn't surprising; Jund's got a lot of new toys recently, a really bad matchup is gone, and lots of players have invested a lot of time and money into the deck. Of course they'll play it again.

Six Reasons Why

The primary reason for this resurgence is Wrenn and Six. When I reviewed it, I was unimpressed. Wrenn just didn't do enough when it wasn't standing in for Life from the Loam. I stand by that assessment and remind everyone that Wrenn does nothing against Rest in Peace, but there was something I missed.

Never missing a land drop and thinning your deck is good. Wrenn provides that function to Jund, with a little value in killing small creatures. No cog in any machine is very good on its own, but Wrenn seems to be a cog that fits seamlessly into Jund and makes the machine run smoother.

A Catch

However, I don't know how good it actually is. Despite all their numbers (roughly a quarter of the field), no Jund deck has actually won our local tournaments in a month. I can't remember any going better than 3-1. I haven't had any greater difficulty playing against the new versions than the old ones, as the games come down to the same grind as before, making me think that the deck may not be more powerful so much as more attractive.

Part of this upsurge may be Legacy spillover. I'm told that Wrenn is taking over Legacy. Most Legacy creatures are X/1's, so Wrenn's downtick is very relevant, but more importantly Wrenn is great with and against Wasteland. Thanks to dual lands, the opportunity cost of just running four-color piles in Legacy is pretty low. The ubiquity of Wasteland keeps these decks in check. Wrenn undoes Wasteland, and now the piles are back. Logically, players are applying this logic to Modern and thus Jund is everywhere, hoping to replicate the Legacy success.

The other reason is that Wrenn plays very well with another new Jund card that definitely is as good as it seems.

Season of Grind

Seasoned Pyromancer is an exceptional card in any version of Jund. The 2/2 body isn't that impressive, but it doesn't matter given the card advantage it provides. I'm told, but can't verify, that Jund is cutting Dark Confidant because he's bad against Wrenn, and Bob is an investment. Pyromancer gives new cards up front, potentially with value. Obviously, discarding Wrenned-back lands is good, but turning useless discard spells into Elementals alleviates the problem of drawing the wrong part of the deck at the wrong time. He can then provide value from the graveyard. Pyromancer is a very solid card, and in my opinion, a far better reason than Wrenn to play Jund.

Modern Belcher

The other big trend I've seen is that Neoform combo is back. It was briefly seen during the London mulligan test, then disappeared. Now that it's back, I've seen people playing it again. And I'm rather ambivalent. On the one hand, the deck is very scary. On the other, it isn't very good.

With the right hand, Neoform wins on turn 2. With a perfect hand, it can win on turn 1. It's looking to cheat Allosaurus Rider into play, sacrifice it to Neoform, find Griselbrand, and then draw its deck. With Chancellor of the Tangle, this only takes five cards and can happen turn 1, which can only be stopped by Force of Negation. And the deck runs Pact of Negation for protection from Force and slower interaction.

However, that dream scenario isn't probable. The deck has to mulligan very aggressively since most hands do nothing. The London mulligan makes it plausible to make it happen, to the point that I'm told it's the only reason Neoform combo is possible. However, it's still quite unlikely to come together.

Even if Neoform finds the combo, the deck is very soft to interaction. From Thoughtseize to Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, anything that disrupts the carefully and precariously built engine makes the car explode. If you survive the first few turns against Neoform, you're unlikely to lose. In my opinion, it's just Modern's version of Legacy Belcher: a scary deck that either kills you before you move, or it just loses. Play a reasonable Modern deck that doesn't just goldfish, and you'll be fine.

The Other Glass Cannon

On a similar note, I haven't been impressed with Bant Infect so far. I've lost to it plenty of times, but it keeps feeling like it was a failure of my deck rather than anything the opponent did. I realize that many have always felt this way, but since Gitaxian Probe was banned, I feel like Infect needs to outplay me to win.

The Bant versions I've faced so far have been really clunky. They've gotten a lot of Oops, I Win! combinations, but if they don't come together they really struggle. Giver of Runes and Teferi, Time Raveler are great for forcing through an infector and Scale Up allows some truly out-of-nowhere wins. However, these cards are replacing the pump spells that infect still needs to assemble so it can secure victory. The move from UG to Bant Infect appears to have exacerbated the "wrong-half problem" the deck already had.

I've had plenty of games where Infect drew lots of protection and had the Scale Up kill, but never saw an infector. Other times they only got one infector and lost to a sweeper, Plague Engineer, or multiple removal spells. Sometimes, their only pump is Scale, and they only had a one-turn window to kill and couldn't. To me it looks like going Bant has exacerbated Infect's variance, and on net it's a negative for the deck.

Brewer's Format

Everyone is trying everything to see if anything sticks. Modern's received so many new cards, and they were only evaluated in the context of Hogaakvine. Everyone's playing catch-up now, and this means that brewers have the space to just go nuts.

For me, this means that this weekend will be very interesting. I expect to be surprised a lot and not see the same deck twice each round. On the one hand, the prospect is exciting. On the other, how do you prepare for the unexpected?

Reflections on a Mulligan

Finally, I need to address the elephant in the room. However, I don't really have an opinion on the London mulligan in practice. The Neoform players tell me their deck is only viable because of the London mulligan; theorists expect it to benefit less-than-fair strategies, and for it to have an overall negative impact on Modern. So far, I haven't seen any of that happening.

Now, I don't play decks that really benefit from the new mulligan. I swing between straight aggro to control, with a little Storm for spice. I don't need to mulligan for very specific cards all the time, so the new mulligan isn't really doing anything for me. Under the Vancouver rules I mulliganed roughly 1/3 of the time because I didn't have the right mix of lands and spells, and went to five or less once every ten mulligans or so. Over the past week I've recorded similar numbers. I'm not seeing any real difference in terms of playable hands.

Unforeseen Consequences

There have been a few problems that I didn't expect, and they make me question the longevity of this new mulligan. Problems within formats can theoretically be solved via bannings, but I'm seeing some structural problems with the mulligan itself. The first is the feel-bad aspect. Since you were drawing off the top and then scrying, there were limited opportunities to make a mistake. You either kept the scry or didn't based on the opening hand.

With London, it feels like you're making sacrifices. Frequently I and those I've spoken to have mulliganed into good seven-card hands, but once you start cutting cards they become unplayable. It feels worse when I London to five and and am left with a mediocre hand after choosing which cards to bottom rather than I opened a mediocre five. Then there are the times you bottom cards based on how you expect things to go, and they go a completely different direction, retrospectively making your mulligan decision bad. Again, I know that statistically and strategy-wise such a decision was good, but the loss feels worse.

Then there's adjudication. I've seen several bitter disputes about how many mulligans players have taken escalate. Neither player wrote down how many mulligans they'd taken, and one or both lost track while drawing seven cards each time. This was rare with the Vancouver mulligan.

Several judges I know have admitted they're worried about cheating involving the mulligan, such as "forgetting" how many they'd taken or worse: deliberately writing down too many for the opponent and disputing it. In such a dispute the judges are forced to go with the better records, and they're worried that will lead to rewarding cheaters. Personally, I'll be more obsessive with my record keeping than normal this Saturday, but it is very concerning.

Bringing Everything Together

What all this means for me this weekend is that I'll need to really be watching my opponents. I'm naturally suspicious at GP's from experience, but now I'll really need to be careful. I also can't try to game the event as I've done in the past. As a result, it's best to go in with a proactive, disruptive deck so I'm not just dead to anything. And that sounds like familiar territory for me.

Insider: The Game Changer – Analyzing TCGPlayer’s New $5 Minimum

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Many of you who have read my GP reports know that previously I've been a big fan of unloading low dollar cards to vendors at GPs. These are the types of cards you typically get as part of a bigger collection buy that may come as bulk or near bulk, I'm specifically referring to the $2 and less cards. Two months ago, trying to sell these individually on TCGPlayer was a sub-optimal strategy, as after fees and shipping were taken into account you were taking in less than 50%.

These were the cards I would "ogre" (sort by best buylist price) and offer to vendors en masse at GPs. After all, if I got $0.25 on a $0.75 card that I only paid $0.003 on I still made a whopping 8,333% profit. It's important to note that this process is still somewhat time-consuming, but I personally enjoy sorting cards and digging for treasure in collection buys, so I felt it was worth the efforts.

Recently TCGPlayer changed how cheaper cards could be purchased. Instead of a $2 minimum, they now allow buyers to purchase whichever cards they want with a big caveat - there's now a $0.78 additional charge PER store they are buying from if the total store purchase is under $5. The reason this is so important is that TCGPlayer is a pretty cutthroat environment, which forces many sellers to offer free shipping to compete.

A key thing to remember is that shipping costs are flat fees, typically in the range of $0.45-$0.6 per plain white envelope package. While it may not seem like much, this is a significant percentage overall for small sales. On a $2 sale, that shipping fee represents 22.5%-30% off the transaction. You then have to account for the flat $0.3 flat fee per transaction from PayPal (who processes the financial transaction), which is another 15% off the transaction. Finally, you have the percent fees of 10.25% for TCGPlayer and 2.5% for PayPal.
On a $2 order (that you previously could get $1 or so buylisting to stores at 40-50%) you are basically breaking even, as opposed to selling on TCGPlayer, except it was a lot less effort on your part to cash out. This is why it was smart under the old rules to price cards that were near $1 at $0.99, so people had to order more than two from you and cards near $2 at $1.99 for the same reason.

The New Way

By automatically adding the $0.78 fee for orders under $5.00, it basically eliminates the "free shipping" option that sellers were forced to offer to stay competitive. For that same $2.00 order that you would have gotten $1.00 on previously, you now net $1.68 or a 68% increase, which is massive. It's also important to consider the new key price point is $5.00. Cards that are near $1.25 are better sold at $1.24, cards that are around $2.50 are better sold at $2.49 and of course, $5.00 cards are best sold at $4.99. Here is a graphical comparison between $1.00 and $4.99 between old and new system.
As you can see, it's significantly better for sellers now with the graph merging at $5 as nothing changes for orders above $5.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon Arch

Incidental Effects

This change will likely cause some side effects. As it's now far more profitable to sell cheaper cards on TCGPlayer, one would expect that many players who previously resorted to buylisting the cheaper cards will shift to selling on TCGPlayer. This means that stores may have a harder time acquiring the cheap cards that they used to get for pennies on the dollar. Stores will be forced to either increase their buylist prices on the hotter cheap cards such as key standard uncommons and many standard rare staples or resort to buying more bulk in hope of pulling them.

Obviously, not everyone will start selling on TCGPlayer, as many people currently don't. I don't imagine this is enough of a change to make them suddenly put in the effort, but if a lot of the binder grinders start listing cheaper cards, one of these two scenario's will likely happen. While not directly related to this change, WoTC's recent decision to support the Pauper format, which is one that tends to have a lot of staples that fall into this sub $5.00 category, may increase the pressure on vendors to aggressively buy Pauper staples at more competitive prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fire Diamond

The $0.78 flat fee charged to buyers will likely serve as a good deterrent in making small purchases. I expect stores that list a lot of sub-$0.25 cards to see more cards purchased per order in order to break the $5 mark. This can be both a good and bad thing. The typical plain white envelope (PWE) shipping in the US does have size limitations which you can read about in a previous article of mine found here. If people buy a significant number of cheap cards in an order you can actually take a bigger hit on profits due to the higher shipping costs.

In that article, I calculated that you can fit about 16 Magic cards in a PWE and ship it with a single Forever stamp. Using this method, I can't guarantee you won't have any issue going through the sorter. However, the cost difference between PWE and bubble mailer tracked is around $2.25, which reduces profit further by about 45%. You could increase the number of cards per top loader by using higher point top loaders (the points appear to represent 1 mil or 1/1000th of an inch), which would then allow you to fit more cards per envelope. Keep in mind that higher-point top loaders tend to be a lot more expensive per piece than the common 20 point variety.

This shift in potential purchasing may mean you'll want to list playsets of these types of cards, along with playsets of cards that are often played in the same deck. For example; Chromatic Sphere and Sylvan Scrying.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Scrying

Lastly, this change makes buying and picking bulk a more profitable endeavor. Note that it may be more difficult to find unpicked bulk in light of this change, as more people may decide it's worth their time to pick. If anything, you may have to pay more aggressively to acquire it.

Conclusion

This TCGPlayer pricing change is a huge boon for anyone selling cards on that platform. The majority of Magic cards fall in the under $5.00 realm. This means it's easier than ever to add cards that would typically rot in a binder or box to your overall inventory, and turn them into actual cash. I can honestly say I'm very happy with this change and I have re-listed cheap cards that I previously pulled out of my online inventory thanks to the new $5 minimum. This will also free up my time at Magic Fests, as I typically spent 6+ hours buylisting small stuff to various vendors and very little time trading and playing.

Interesting New Set Observations

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Normally I don’t pay attention to new sets. Cards from new Standard sets follow a predictable price trajectory, starting too high and rapidly plummeting post-release. The exceptions are the few cards that suddenly break out in Standard, but I lack the foresight to predict the winners and the losers.

All this said, a couple of Magic’s newest sets have really piqued my interest—not necessarily from an MTG finance standpoint, but from an interested collector’s standpoint. It began with Dominaria, returning us to my favorite plane. I loved all the nostalgia within the set, and I found much of the artwork to be fantastic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jhoira, Weatherlight Captain

While I had absolutely zero interest in returning to Ravnica for a third go, I did appreciate War of the Spark when that set released. There wasn’t anything particularly nostalgic about this set, but the unique characteristic of having a Planeswalker in every pack was gimmicky enough to convince me to buy some packs. Modern Horizons was a walk down memory lane all over again, and now Core Set 2020 is shaping up to be a really interesting addition to the game.

Observations About Newer Sets

I’ll begin this section stating that it’s been a while since I paid any attention to the financial relevance of Standard cards. While I have my finger on the pulse of cards from Magic’s earliest sets, I tend to ignore trends of Magic’s latest. So my observations may strike you as obvious, but I’d wager there are a number of newcomers to MTG finance who may be wondering the same things as I.

As I skimmed pricing data, I found a few perplexing trends involving new sets. They seem to deviate from observations I’ve made in the past, back when I paid closer attention to Standard.

Observation 1: For being such a success, War of the Spark buylists prices seem soft.
Is it just me, or are there very few cards worth opening in a War of the Spark booster box? Sure, Japanese boxes have the alternate art Planeswalkers, but the best an English box can yield (nonfoil) is Liliana, Dreadhorde General: $13.50 from Miniature Market. And that high buylist surely can’t last, considering there are plenty of copies for sale just a couple bucks above that. I pulled a Liliana from my a Bundle back in May and immediately buylisted it to Card Kingdom for $22 + 30% trade credit. Even this most desirable card from the set has plummeted since then.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Dreadhorde General

Maybe this shouldn’t have come as a surprise to me, as Standard cards frequently tank in price after supply floods the market. But for being such a successful set, I’m surprised by how inexpensive its most valuable card is. By the way, Teferi, Time Raveler is the only other card that buylists for at least $10, with Miniature Market paying highest ($10). Card Kingdom’s highest nonfoil buy price for English War of the Spark cards is $8.75, for Finale of Devastation.

Observation 2: Despite the lack of high-value cards, War of the Spark’s box EV is very high.
According to Dawnglare, War of the Spark’s booster box EV is $94.42. This number feels high considering the lack of big-money cards in the set. Besides Core Set 2020, which still needs to shake off new-release inflation, War of the Spark’s EV is higher than any other Standard-legal set. How does this math work?

I suspect it has to do with the large volume of non-bulk cards in the set. A number of the uncommon Planeswalkers are worth a buck or two, which surely boosts the EV a bit. Many of the rares are also worth a few bucks, decreasing the likelihood of opening an absolutely worthless booster pack. Perhaps this is why War of the Spark’s box EV is so strong?

Observation 3: Dominaria’s box EV is miserable.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Dominaria’s booster boxes are horrible to crack right now. According to Dawnglare, Dominaria’s booster box EV is $57.39. I know the set is going to leave Standard soon, but are there no eternal-playable cards that will hold value post rotation? The EV of Dominaria boxes is on par with Amonkhet, but I would have guessed Dominaria was far more successful.

When I examine the top buylists for Dominaria, I quickly see why this set’s EV is so pitiful. The value of the set appears to be concentrated in the top few mythic rares. Teferi, Hero of Dominaria buylists for $25 and Karn, Scion of Urza is next at $10. The top rare is Hinterland Harbor, buylisting for a pitiful $4. This tells me that unless you open a top mythic, you’re likely not to get your money back from opening a Dominaria booster pack.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Teferi, Hero of Dominaria

Looking Ahead to Core Set 2020

Next, I want to pause briefly on Core Set 2020 to study its release EV. I just recently ordered a bundle from this set and I was wondering what the best cards to open were. How likely would I recoup my buy-in if I crack the bundle?

Currently, a booster box from this set has an EV of $111.77. Of course, this is artificially high since the set just came out, and singles haven’t flooded the market yet. But what’s driving the high EV upon release? What’s worth opening and what should my action be if I do open the most valuable cards in the set?

The most valuable nonfoil card in the set so far is Chandra, Awakened Inferno. At time of writing, Card Kingdom offers $23 for the mythic rare. Next is Omnath, Locus of the Roil and Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord at $11.75. The fourth most valuable card in the set is currently a rare reprint, Leyline of the Void ($9).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leyline of the Void

What will I do if I open any of these cards in a booster pack? It’s 99.9% likely I will sell them immediately. Look at what happened to my Liliana, Dreadhorde General transaction—I opened one in a booster and got almost $30 in store credit for it, and now it would barely get me $10 at that same store. That’s a dramatic plummet. Of course, there’s a nonzero chance something I open breaks out in Standard and jumps in price. But nowadays, I don’t even bother playing the Standard speculation game. It seems completely unnecessary to gamble on new cards when there are so many more predictable trends worth acting upon.

What Trends?

For starters, there’s still that Modern Horizons phenomenon out there. This one-of-a-kind set is about to fade into the background, allowing its most playable cards to slowly increase in price over time. While some purchases I made may have been premature, I haven’t regretted acquiring Modern Horizons playables. Foils have been especially strong.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seasoned Pyromancer

Looking back a little further, it seems Ultimate Masters cards have completely bottomed. While a given card from the set may not suddenly double overnight, it seems like we can safely acquire Ultimate Masters cards now without threat of further price declines. The most playable cards have already been on an uptrend.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cavern of Souls

If I were going to put money to work in newer cards, these are the two sets I would focus upon.

Wrapping It Up

It’s not often I pay attention to new sets. With very few exceptions, cards in new sets follow a predictable trend: they start high and quickly sell off as new supply hits the market. There’s little to explore from an MTG finance standpoint unless you’re talented at picking the sleepers of the set. I am not.

All that said, I do notice some perplexing trends in new set pricing of late. Perhaps this is the new norm, and my absence from Standard MTG finance explains why I find these trends so interesting. But even if this is the case, I suspect others out there may be equally inexperienced, and would also benefit from the same musings.

Either way, my overall message track remains the same: there are so many high-probability high-reward plays out there that betting on Standard seems ill-placed. If its profits you seek, you needn’t mess with Standard sets at all. There’s enough strength in sets like Modern Horizons and Ultimate Masters to be worth buying into. Of course, if you want to get into sets even older, there’s plenty more worth acquiring.

Besides picking up some Modern Horizons cards with store credit, I’ve been focusing recently on Beta rares. Any rares. There are only a couple thousand of each one and there will never be any more. But that’s my style; you need to figure out what interests you most. If you can find ways to make a little money from Magic while also enjoying the cards in the meantime, you’ve discovered the one way to have your cake while eating it too!

…

Sigbits

  • I never would have predicted the buylist on foil Wrenn and Six to rise so quickly. Card Kingdom now offers $140 for near mint copies, and that card’s price doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Because this set is somewhat unprecedented, I can’t predict the ceiling on its most desirable foils. But if I were forced to guess, I’d say this card could reach $300, and it wouldn't surprise me.
  • Urza, Lord High Artificer is the next most valuable foil from Modern Horizons, with a buylist of $115. Force of Negation foils are next at $90. Both of these also have robust demand, and I don’t expect these prices to drop. New supply probably won’t be hitting the market quickly enough to overcome demand at this point, and that’s precisely why Modern Horizons foils interest me so much.
  • Can I pause for a moment and dwell on my favorite set, Arabian Nights? At one point, the top three cards from the set buylisted to Card Kingdom for well over $1000. But their buy prices on Library of Alexandria, Bazaar of Baghdad, and Juzam Djinn have slowly been dropping as they continue to take in supply. Now they’re paying $1010 for Bazaar, $900 for Juzam, and just $770 for Library. There does appear to be some softness in this market, but I suspect it won’t last forever.

Studying Spreads For Smarter Speculation

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There have never been more new Magic releases to keep track of, and the stakes have never been higher. It seems like every day another card is spiking as the market adjusts, and it’s obvious there is opportunity for profit for those that buy in ahead of time. The problem is figuring out what’s next to rise, and with so many cards to consider, it’s a daunting task.

There are all sorts of factors to weigh, and everyone sees things a bit differently from each other, but one opinion that’s hard to ignore is buylist prices - what stores are actually paying for cards. 

The prices stores pay for cards is a good way to gauge how much their customers demand them, so it provides useful insight into how the market is behaving. Comparing this buy price with the best selling price - the spread - provides a more complete picture of just how hot a card is at that point in time.

By looking at these spreads, we can inform our speculation. Buying into cards with the lowest spread and anticipating that high demand will drive prices upward. Conversely, looking to move cards with the highest spreads and relatively low demand could cause their prices to sag over time. 

QuietSpeculation’s TraderTools conveniently computes these spreads, identifying the buylist with the highest price. It’s useful for some quick analysis of buylist spread and identifying cards in high demand, which isn’t always so obvious looking at price movement alone.

To gain some further insight into the market and look for speculation opportunities, I’ve looked over these spreads and found some interesting information.

Core Set 2020 is not yet in Trader Tools, so I started my analysis with Modern Horizons, which is still very much a hot finance topic. This week’s spike of Wrenn and Six to $75, which comes after its spike to $50 in June, should be a sign there’s more growth to come in other staples.

I wish I had the old buylist data on Wrenn and Six to see if a low spread could have helped predict the spike, but I do remember that when I bought most of my MH1 cards from CardKingdom, Wrenn and Six was selling at a steep premium. So steep, in fact, relative to other staples I had to buy it elsewhere. It's likely to have had a relatively inflated buy price as well, which could have predicted the upcoming spike.

Seasoned Pyromancer was similarly overpriced, and similarly spiked soon afterward, so there’s certainly also some information to be gleaned from sell price alone. However, seeing buy prices from that time would paint a clearer picture.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Unbound Flourishing

Currently, the Modern Horizons card with the lowest spread is Unbound Flourishing, at 14%. TraderTools shows the cash buy price, but in my experience, the best practices for buylisting is to take advantage of trade-in bonuses and make smart buys to stretch my dollar further. When you add CardKingdom’s 30% trade-in bonus to this 14% spread, that means the card has a negative spread. 

When a card has a negative spread, there’s an arbitrage opportunity to be made in buying from one place and selling to another.  Opportunities for easy true cash arbitrage don’t come up often, are short-lived, and not likely to be very large. Though, it’s an interesting phenomenon that points to a card being in very high demand, and is likely to see a price increase accordingly. 

While this case of Unbound Flourishing isn’t extreme, it’s a pretty clear sign to me that the card is very high-demand and is due to rise in price. It’s not a competitive card and lacks the cross-format appeal of something like Wrenn and Six, so it’s not surprising its price has been off to a slow start. Unbound Flourishing's Commander and casual appeal give this incredible long-term prospects - just look at the history of Doubling Season.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Force of Negation
There was an error retrieving a chart for Prismatic Vista

The next cards that buylists are demanding the most are Prismatic Vista and Force of Negation, both at 25% spreads. When you take the trade-in bonus into consideration, you’re essentially at a break-even point, so it’s clear these cards are selling well. It’s no surprise to me, because as a competitive Eternal player, these were the exact two cards that I bought playsets of for personal use with no plans to sell them.

Both are already proven Legacy staples with plenty of Modern applications, so I am sure many other players have had the same thought process as me, and more will begin to follow suit as the cards become more prominent. 

The next most in-demand card is Thran, Yawgmoth Physician at 27%, another card with an essentially 0% spread. The card is a Commander all-star, but unlike Urza, Lord High Artificer, it lacked the same hype and came in at a much lower price point - that gives it more room to grow. Given that it’s also seeing some success as a Modern playable, it has a bright future. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silent Clearing

Also coming in below the 30% break-even trade-in bonus spread is Silent Clearing. This was and still is the cheapest land in the cycle, but clearly, demand is catching up. Its low price makes it a bargain relative to more expensive options in the cycle and likely a good speculation target. That said, the next card in line is the 34% spread Sunbaked Canyon, which is seeing the most play of any in this cycle, and I imagine will one day be the most expensive. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Finale of Devastation

Looking at spreads for MH1 was enlightening, so I was curious how past sets are behaving. War of the Spark, for example,  also has a card with a 14% spread, Finale of Devastation. It makes sense, given it’s become a 4-of staple in Modern, and it’s seeing increased Standard applications now with Cavalier of Thorns. Growth seems imminent, but nothing else comes close to break-even spread, so I imagine the rest of the set should be pretty stable over the summer until the fall set shakes things up again. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Smothering Tithe

The highlight from Ravnica Allegiance and Guilds of Ravnica is the Commander and casual star Smothering Tithe at a 25% spread, while the rest of the set seems relatively saturated. This Commander phenomenon extends back to Core Set 2019’s Hungering Hydra at 26% and to Dominaria, where the highlight is Muldrotha, the Gravetide at 16%, followed by Helm of the Host at 30%.

My takeaway here is that the safest way to speculate on such recent cards is to target those with the most obvious Commander potential, simply because they are still relative bargains given their strong future prospects. While their sets will rotate from Standard and most of the cards will become forgotten, it's these Commander cards that will eventually become their legacy.

Interestingly, the next most demanded cards from these Standard sets tend to be the lands, whether shocklands or checklands, but at spreads of 50% or higher are currently very stable, so it's hard to imagine their prices are going to see any significant growth in the near future.

June ’19 Brew Report, Pt. 2: Out in Force

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Last week, we began taking stock of the novel decks appearing in 5-0 dumps post-Modern Horizons. With a ban in the books and M20 entering the card pool, the coming weeks are sure to feature even more upheaval. But lots of new tech is already out in force. Perhaps June's innovation bears signs of what's to come.

Old Dogs, New Tricks

A number of midrange decks have benefited notably from Modern Horizons, and now stand only to improve without Hogaak combo forcing them to sideboard playsets of Leyline of the Void.

Temur Twin, by LOUISBACH (11th, Modern Premier #11905352)

Creatures

3 Deceiver Exarch
2 Pestermite
3 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
3 Snapcaster Mage

Planeswalkers

4 Wrenn and Six
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Cryptic Command
2 Force of Negation
2 Remand
1 Spell Pierce
1 Spell Snare

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
1 Anger of the Gods

Lands

2 Breeding Pool
1 Hinterland Harbor
2 Lonely Sandbar
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Misty Rainforest
1 Wooded Foothills
1 Raging Ravine
2 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Sulfur Falls
3 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Leyline of the Void
2 Tireless Tracker
1 Force of Negation
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Magmatic Sinkhole
1 Nature's Claim
1 Pithing Needle
1 Pyroclasm
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Thragtusk
1 Weather the Storm

Temur Twin embraces the midrange role uncomfortably forced onto Splinter Twin decks with the banning of their namesake enchantment. Rather than for Tarmogoyf, though, the deck adopts green for Wrenn and Six, a development I wholeheartedly approve of. Wrenn ensures pilots never miss another land drop, a critical benefit for a deck shooting to hard-cast a five-mana creature as early as possible. Raging Ravine and Lonely Sandbar give Wrenn some extra dimensions in terms of land recursion, and further diverts opposing resources, buffing Twin's classical gameplan.

Hexdrinker Jund, by WILDABEAST49 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Hexdrinker
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Dark Confidant
1 Grim Flayer
3 Seasoned Pyromancer

Planeswalkers

4 Liliana of the Veil
2 Wrenn and Six

Instants

3 Assassin's Trophy
4 Fatal Push
3 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Blood Crypt
3 Blooming Marsh
1 Nurturing Peatland
2 Swamp
1 Forest
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Cindervines
2 Collector Ouphe
2 Damping Sphere
2 Fulminator Mage
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Plague Engineer
2 Ravenous Trap

Hexdrinker Jund is the most recent in a long string of BGx developments. Seasoned Pyromancer and Wrenn and Six have happily joined the Jund cast, and from the dumps seem to position Jund as the frontrunner among BGx decks.

Other lists are foregoing Hexdrinker, but the creature does seem potent in this shell—BGx has always struggled against faster decks it can't adequately disrupt, namely Tron; the 2/1 lets them pressure those strategies from out the gate while scrambling to sequence interaction. In fair matchups, the creature maintains relevance as a mini-Progentius.

Mardu Pyromancer, by ALFREDITOMELIRA (5-0)

Creatures

2 Yawgmoth, Thran Physician
1 Monastery Mentor
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Seasoned Pyromancer

Instants

1 Abrade
4 Fatal Push
1 Kaya's Guile
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Surgical Extraction

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Thoughtseize
3 Unearth
4 Lingering Souls

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Godless Shrine
4 Marsh Flats
1 Sacred Foundry
2 Swamp
2 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Kaya's Guile
3 Blood Moon
1 Dreadbore
1 Duress
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Plague Engineer
3 Wear // Tear

Despite what they might be saying at the LGS, Mardu Pyromancer seems alive and well; this build has clocked multiple 5-0 finishes and Top 8ed a Modern Premier. It integrates Seasoned Pyromancer to flavorful results. On the strategic side, Monastery Mentor joins Young Pyromancer as copy number five. Unearth surfaces as a way to get back into the game after a token-maker is removed, and Yawgmoth, Thran Physician replaces Bedlam Reveler as top-end payoff.

The Cat's Meow

Zoo decks also seem to be performing well online, with a range of GRx decks putting up numbers.

Vanilla Zoo, by LALAUWBA (5-0)

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Noble Hierarch
2 Hexdrinker
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Qasali Pridemage
2 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
2 Ranger-Captain of Eos
1 Knight of Autumn
4 Bloodbraid Elf

Instants

4 Path to Exile
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Lightning Helix

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills
2 Arid Mesa
2 Sunbaked Canyon
2 Horizon Canopy
2 Razorverge Thicket
1 Copperline Gorge
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

1 Ancient Grudge
1 Blood Moon
2 Boom // Bust
1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
1 Choke
3 Declaration in Stone
1 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
1 Pillage
4 Rest in Peace

Vanilla Zoo gets its name from its stock appearance—here's a Zoo deck that looks exactly as I'd expect a Zoo deck to look in 2019. Joining the jungle ranks are Ranger-Captain of Eos and Hexdrinker, the latter searchable by the former. Ranger can also find Hierarch, for when exalted might help break a board or threaten lethal, or Nacatl, for when mana is tight. Bloodbraid Elf serves as board-widener extraordinaire, and is best when hitting Ranger.

Three-Drop Zoo, by CIMOS21 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Woolly Thoctar
4 Noble Hierarch
4 Hexdrinker
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Collector Ouphe
4 Gruul Spellbreaker
3 Ranger-Captain of Eos
4 Bloodbraid Elf

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
3 Lightning Helix
1 Path to Exile

Lands

3 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden
2 Inspiring Vantage
1 Razorverge Thicket
1 Copperline Gorge
3 Horizon Canopy
2 Sunbaked Canyon
2 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Plains

Sideboard

3 Path to Exile
2 Damping Sphere
3 Knight of Autumn
4 Rest in Peace
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Three-Drop Zoo also employs the Ranger/Hexdrinker combination, as well as a slew of other three-drop plays—Gruul Spellbreaker I understand, the Ogre having surfaced even in GR Eldrazi, but Woolly Thoctar certainly strikes me as suspicious. And what does the 5/4 replace? None other than Zoo figurehead Wild Nacatl!

There may well be more to this build than its epic cascade hits, though, as H0LYDIVER has also enjoyed success with it. In any case, Collector Ouphe looks great as a mainboard answer to both Altar of Dementia and Thopter-Sword, breakout artifact plays post-Horizons.

Virtue Zoo, by HYBRID7 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Loam Lion
4 Kird Ape
4 Wild Nacatl
4 Narnam Renegade
4 Experiment One
4 Squadron Hawk

Enchantments

4 Force of Virtue

Instants

3 Path to Exile
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Lightning Helix

Sorceries

4 Light Up the Stage

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Arid Mesa
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
2 Temple Garden
1 Snow-Covered Forest
1 Snow-Covered Mountain
1 Snow-Covered Plains

Sideboard

1 Path to Exile
3 Alpine Moon
3 Destructive Revelry
3 Ravenous Trap
2 Rest in Peace
3 Stony Silence

Virtue Zoo is named for one of the most panned of its cycle, Force of Virtue. +1/+1 makes Wild Nacatl, Loam Lion, Kird Ape, and Narnam Renegade exquisitely difficult to remove in Modern, a format whose high-water mark is 3. The stat boost also improves Squadron Hawk, giving the deck aerial-presence-in-a-can. Light Up the Stage lets pilots fill back up on cheat threats, removal, and anthems.

GR Prowess, by MOUSTAFALLLO (5-0)

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Soul-Scar Mage
4 Dreadhorde Arcanist
3 Abbot of Keral Keep

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

3 Become Immense
4 Blossoming Defense
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mutagenic Growth

Sorceries

4 Scale Up
3 Assault Strobe
2 Reckless Charge

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
2 Wooded Foothills
4 Stomping Ground
4 Copperline Gorge
3 Snow-Covered Mountain

Sideboard

3 Ancient Grudge
3 Dragon's Claw
3 Gut Shot
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Spellskite

Trending away from the interactive side of the spectrum is GR Prowess, a deck not unlike Infect or Mono-Red Phoenix in its focus on blitzing opponents. This deck runs Dreadhorde Arcanist as a way to stack more prowess triggers, grow-'em-all via Scale Up, or just generate 12 extra power through Become Immense. MOUSTAFALLLO isn't sleeping on Arcanist's strength alongside Mutagenic Growth, which saves the fragile body from Lightning Bolt and also double-pumps using the creature's ability.

Unearthing the Future

Despite my best efforts, Claim // Fame never saw much Modern play. But its older brother Unearth is making waves in the format. While it sometimes does less for the card investment—Claim // Fame can reanimate, pump, and give haste all at once—Unearth beats out the split card on versatility, targeting creatures with CMC up to 3 and cycling in the face of Rest in Peace (or just while no targets exist in the graveyard).

BR Unearth, by WILDABEAST49 (5-0)

Creatures

4 Lightning Skelemental
4 Seasoned Pyromancer
4 Dreadhorde Arcanist
4 Bloodghast
3 Flamewake Phoenix
2 Gurmag Angler
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Instants

4 Fatal Push
4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Thoughtseize
4 Unearth

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Arid Mesa
1 Verdant Catacombs
1 Wooded Foothills
1 Polluted Delta
2 Blood Crypt
2 Mountain
2 Swamp

Sideboard

1 By Force
2 Grim Lavamancer
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Liliana of the Veil
2 Ravenous Trap
1 Shenanigans

BR Unearth is about as straightforward an Unearth deck possible, aiming to reanimate the most obvious targets for the sorcery: Lightning Skelemental and Seasoned Pyromancer. Dreadhorde Arcanist is also a bargain at one mana, and swinging with the Zombie lets pilots recast Unearth from the graveyard.

As for fueling the graveyard, only Faithless Looting makes an appearance, leading me to believe this deck could use some work on that front—dipping even deeper into graveyard payoffs like Bloodghast and Flamewake Phoenix seems especially precarious. Other builds have assuaged this qualm by diversifying their angles of attack, such as with Young Pyromancer.

Grixis Unearth, by TACOFARMER (5-0)

Creatures

2 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
2 Snapcaster Mage
3 Dreadhorde Arcanist
4 Lightning Skelemental
3 Seasoned Pyromancer
2 Fulminator Mage
1 Yawgmoth, Thran Physician

Instants

4 Thought Scour
3 Lightning Bolt
2 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Unearth

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
1 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
4 Spirebluff Canal
2 Darkslick Shores
1 Fiery Islet
1 Snow-Covered Island
1 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Fulminator Mage
1 Collective Brutality
2 Deathmark
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Goblin Cratermaker
2 Plague Engineer
4 Surgical Extraction
1 Terminate

Grixis Unearth does the strategy one better, splashing blue for more potent Unearth targets: Snapcaster Mage and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. Both of these creatures keep the Unearth loops going, as does Dreadhorde Arcanist, letting Grixis establish a value snowball roll it down the hill. Joining Looting is Thought Scour, an effective graveyard enabler with so many good hits in the deck. In the face of graveyard hate, the deck has some backup plans; its red and black creatures do a fine job beating down an enemy hiding behind Rest in Peace.

BUG Unearth, by JONSPARROW (5-0)

Creatures

4 Ice-Fang Coatl
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Hexdrinker
2 Scavenging Ooze
3 Snapcaster Mage
3 Plague Engineer

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana of the Veil

Instants

3 Assassin's Trophy
2 Scarab Feast

Sorceries

3 Collective Brutality
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Maelstrom Pulse
3 Thoughtseize
2 Unearth

Lands

3 Prismatic Vista
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Polluted Delta
2 Verdant Catacombs
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Watery Grave
1 Breeding Pool
2 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Hissing Quagmire
3 Snow-Covered Forest
2 Snow-Covered Swamp
1 Snow-Covered Island

Sideboard

1 Assassin's Trophy
2 Ashiok, Dream Render
2 Dead of Winter
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Narset, Parter of Veils
2 Stubborn Denial
4 Surgical Extraction

BUG Unearth ties together many midrange goodies from Modern Horizons. Leading the charge are Hexdrinker, an Unearth-targetable threat that grows to huge proportions in a deck looking to go long; Ice-Fang Coatl, an up-and-coming staple in decks that can swing the snow land requirement; and Plague Engineer, and oft-sideboarded haymaker in certain matchups that indeed looks great against Hogaakvine, especially in pairs. Covering for Engineer in the sideboard is Dead of Winter, which does an okay Toxic Deluge impersonation. Finally, in lieu of opposing interaction, Collective Brutality will fuel Unearth.

Esper Mentor, by STAINERSON (7th, Modern Premier #11898937)

Creatures

4 Monastery Mentor
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Planeswalkers

2 Teferi, Time Raveler

Instants

4 Opt
4 Fatal Push
2 Path to Exile
2 Force of Negation
1 Spell Pierce
2 Surgical Extraction

Sorceries

4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Serum Visions
2 Thoughtseize
3 Unearth

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Watery Grave
1 Godless Shrine
3 Darkslick Shores
2 Island
1 Plains
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Path to Exile
1 Spell Pierce
1 Celestial Purge
2 Collective Brutality
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Fulminator Mage
2 Narset, Parter of Veils
1 Stony Silence
4 Yixlid Jailer

The idea of Esper Mentor has been floated around Modern for quite some time now, but the archetype itself rarely finds its footing. Unearth is a one-mana sorcery that recurs the expensive token generator once it's been dealt with, perhaps promising to revitalize the deck.

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and Snapcaster Mage are other juicy Unearth targets in Esper colors, as well as Yixlid Jailer and Fulminator Mage from the sideboard. And Teferi, Time Raveler proves the perfect planeswalker to pair with Monastery Mentor—once it's on the battlefield, pilots can Unearth their namesake threat and go to town creating prowess-boasting 1/1s without fear of enemy interruption.

A Whole New Modern

All these lists came from during Hogaakvine's reign of terror, hence the many copies of Rest in Peace, Leyline of the Void, Surgical Extraction, and even Scarab Feast. I expect the more sustainable among them to chug right along with Bridge from Below banned, just with less hate in their arsenal. Modern should also open up enough to let in even more new brews now that decks have fewer parameters to respect online. It's going to be an exciting month!

To Chop or Not to Chop? The Uncut WAR Sheet Conundrum

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Wizards of the Coast recently promised to send an uncut foil sheet of War of the Spark as compensation to those who successfully ordered and received confirmation emails for the WAR Mythic Edition special release but did not receive product (and were instead refunded).

People have been receiving theirs in the mail over the last couple weeks, with nary a confirmation email from eBay or WotC in sight. Mine came in on Wednesday, June 26th. The lack of communication with recipients of sheets will likely cause some issues with people not receiving theirs, although I surprisingly have not heard many stories to that tune as of yet. Sheet arrival seems to be a bit more tenuous overseas, but here in the U.S. they have likely all arrived by now.

My sheet was rolled correctly and received with minor dings and dents.  I informed Wizards of the Coast of the damage via the normal channels, and they’ll be sending me a new one shortly. They didn’t ask for me to return the damaged one, so that one is off to a professional miscutter.

Yeah, that’s right, I’m chopping mine. Just peep some of the beauties being cranked out by the hard-working individuals of the NFC Miscuts Facebook group!

Photos courtesy of Daniel Helm

 

Whether or not this is the right call from an MTGFinance perspective depends on circumstance though. I’m going to break down the various options most people will select from for their sheets and analyze those approaches from an MTGFinance perspective.

The level one move is to sell your sheet on eBay or to an individual. I’ll almost never argue against cashing out, but is now really the right time? I’m seeing these go for obscenely cheap. Between eBay fees and shipping, most sellers aren’t making even $200 for their sheet. Battle for Zendikar, a lukewarm set finance-wise, sells for about $500 for a rare sheet. Heck, even preorders of the WAR rare sheet were going for $400 earlier in June. Lots of these are now in the hands of people who are not too familiar with MTGFinance or still feel burned by not receiving their Mythic editions. People want these gone, and they don’t want to wait around to ditch them.

How many sheets are out there?

I’ve written this article from scratch twice now. Originally, I had a very lengthy diatribe about how people are overestimating the supply that will enter the market. The raw numbers made me think that because only be about 10,000-15,000 sheets will enter players hands, only a small fraction of these would enter the market. This was off-base.

My justification was that of these sheets, a large number will be stored as long-term specs (and likely improperly, which would result in fewer undamaged sheets available), a large number would be framed, and some number would be cut for the cards. While this is still true, I think we’re going to be looking at more than half of the sheets entering the market. And believe me, there are a lot of sheets. Just... just look.

Now THAT is a pile of cards!

Wizards sending out replacement sheets and not asking for returns throws off all valid calculations of supply. At this point, the only thing that’s safe to say is that supply is going to outstrip demand. The first time I wrote this article, I thought that snagging these for $200 a sheet would be solid. Now, that sentiment is laughable.

They will certainly rebound a month or two from now, but these are going to be a hassle. People are having difficulty selling theirs on eBay for $200 now. Buyers are rightfully cautious because so many sheets have arrived damaged. There’s just not enough information right now to know what the financial future of these will be.

What should I do with mine?

All bets are off. Sheets are so cheap now that buyers are going to be finding them shipped for incredibly cheap prices. If you still have yours and want to sell it, you’ve missed the boat. Don’t panic sell yours, just hold it for a couple months to see if the market rebounds a little. The exit goal is $300. If sheets get back there, either sell or commit to holding it forever. If you have an undamaged sheet, you will have an easier time getting good value out of it. Just make sure you don’t leave it in the tube it came in.

These things get more and more warped/damaged the longer they sit in a tube. Invest in a $30 uncut sheet toploader (such as this one here) and you should get a stronger return on the investment. If you do tuck it away, be certain to store it as you would your other cards; in an area that does not get sunlight, has low to no humidity, and does not frequently change temperatures (as close to room temperature as possible is best).

Chopped-full of value!

Having the sheets cut professionally will likely also prove profitable, although it is a lot more work. Let's dig into the nitty-gritty of having your sheet fully cut. Each sheet contains two of every rare and one of every mythic rare card from War of the Spark. These sheets are 11 x 11 cards, for 122 cards total. The floor on a miscut foil tends to be about $5 for the absolute bulk foil rares.

The following cards will almost certainly fetch above-bulk value when miscut: Finale of Devastation, Finale of Promise, all of the planeswalkers, all of the legendary creatures, and a small handful of other constructed playable cards.

This is actually the majority of the cards on the sheet. Prices are going to vary wildly for these, but even assuming the average value of a card on the sheet is $10 (which I think is a fairly conservative figure), that means your cut sheet is worth over $1000. Not too shabby! I'll probably have my replacement sheet cut too, unless I decide to frame it. The payoff seems to be high enough that cutting the sheet is worth it, and the time frame shouldn't be an issue considering some of the best cards, such as Teferi, Time Raveler, Karn, the Great Creator and Dreadhorde Arcanist are all very eternally playable.

You've already won

At the end of the day, these are awesome, unique pieces of Magic history. I wouldn’t recommend tossing it out for a measly $120 or so unless you need the spare cash right now. If you got one or more of these, you're in a great spot! If you didn't, go nab one from eBay! They really can't get much cheaper than they are now. Hope you all had a great Fourth of July weekend. Expect to hear from me again soon, and as always, follow me on Twitter @MahouManSam for day-to-day #MTGFinance updates.

Bridge Collapse: Banning Reaction

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I had planned to spend today's article discussing Hogaakvine: what it does, how it does it, how to play against it, and how I'd build decks given Hogaak's rise. However, that article was mooted this morning by Wizards. Instead, let's examine what's happened and where it leaves Modern.

Also, once again, nothing got unbanned. This should continue to come as no surprise since Wizards is very sparing with unbans. Nothing will happen while Modern is at all in flux. We'll have more luck with unbannings if things settle down and get more stale next year.

The Announcement

Effective Friday, Bridge from Below is banned in Modern. I genuinely wasn't expecting anything to get axed today. Wizards has always been in the habit of waiting-and-seeing. This approach was confirmed when they announced the London mulligan was here to stay. It's only been a month since Hogaak became legal, which isn't much time for data collection, and subsequently I didn't think Wizards had enough data to make a move.

However, I didn't have Wizards' data (mores the pity); just my own experiences and the testimonies of others. From what I'd seen, Hogaak won on turn 2 half as often as it clunked out and didn't do anything meaningful. However, according to Wizards, my experience was an uncommon one.

In the case of the Hogaak Bridgevine deck, its initial overall win rate on Magic Online was over 60%. Despite the metagame's best efforts to adapt, the deck's win rate remains higher than is healthy for long-term metagame diversity.

That is an alarming winrate, especially considering how well-known the deck's weakness to graveyard hate is. However, in context, it makes more sense.

It has only two unfavorable matchups among the other ten most played decks and a high win rate against lesser played "rogue" decks. Especially telling is its Game 1 win rate of roughly 66%, requiring most decks to sideboard heavily against it.

While that 66% win rate is very impressive, by itself, I can't imagine that it's enough. Affinity's long-term success can be attributed to a similar Game 1 statistic. Affinity of any stripe has a very strong aggressive plan that just folds in the face of sideboard hate, not unlike graveyard decks.

In context, though, it is enough to pull the trigger on Hogaak. Affinity doesn't just fold to hate. It also folds to waves of removal. Even if I don't hit my Stony Silence against Affinity, I can still play normal Magic, take care of the enablers or the payoffs, and plausibly win. Because of Bridge and the sacrifice outlets, normal removal just isn't effective against Hogaak. They'd respond to any removal spell by sacrificing the creature for value and making zombies to replace it, which fair decks have no answer for. Thus, hate was necessary, and Hogaak had answers to the hate, so the win rate didn't dip enough post-sideboard.

While I've seen considerable hysteria surrounding Hogaak on social media, I doubt it was a serious factor in Wizards' decision. Their past actions, including not banning Faithless Looting despite Izzet Phoenix's record, indicates they only consider hard data when making decisions. I actually suspect that fear over Hogaak dominating the upcoming Mythic Championship is the most pertinent reason for Wizards' decision:

While we don't intend on setting a precedent for quickly taking B&R action whenever a successful new deck breaks out, in this case, the situation clearly needed to be addressed. We're looking forward to watching the metagame continue to evolve as we approach Mythic Championship IV in Barcelona on July 26–28, and we hope you'll join us for full coverage of that event.

Nature of the Ban

In the announcement, Wizards says they considered a number of Hogaak Bridgevine cards for banning before settling on Bridge.

We discussed several possible bans that would weaken this deck while having minimal impact on the rest of the metagame: Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis; Altar Of Dementia; and Bridge from Below. While cases can be made for each, we identified Bridge from Below as the card most likely to cause metagame imbalance again in the future. Because Bridge from Below doesn't cost mana or other resources to use and isn't reliant on being drawn naturally from the library, its power level is highly sensitive to the cards that synergize with it. As new card designs that have synergy with the graveyard are released over time, Bridge from Below is the most likely key card in the deck to become problematic again.

This ban was laser-targeted at Bridgevine. No other deck in Modern plays Bridge from Below, nor can they; Bridge is not a Magic card. It doesn't work like any other card in the game, since it does nothing if you cast it. It only does something in the graveyard, so only graveyard decks could ever use the card.

That's not the end of it though, as even then Bridge requires you to kill your own creatures to do anything. The only utility Bridge has ever had is as a cog in broken graveyard combo decks. A (relatively) fair aggro deck like normal Dredge has no use for Bridge. Therefore, banning Bridge makes the most sense if the goal was only to eliminate one problem deck.

As for the wider concern over graveyard decks in general, Wizards appears fine with the way things are.

Our goal is not to eliminate graveyard strategies from the Modern metagame, but rather to weaken this version of the graveyard combo archetype that has proven too powerful for other decks to reasonably adapt to. In fact, we believe that targeting Bridge from Below specifically will still allow for other strategies in this style to continue to be a part of the metagame.

I agree with Wizards' decision, but I might have gone further. I think that Wizards is just kicking the ban can down the road unless they ban Faithless Looting. It's too good at what it does.

Granted, banning Looting now doesn't make much sense. Looting isn't a critical piece of Hogaak's fast kills and is unlikely to fix the warp Hogaak appears to be causing. However, with the proliferation of graveyard strategies that Looting makes possible, I can't imagine the card will escape the ax forever. Still, until the tipping point is reached, I wouldn't ever skimp on graveyard hate.

Fall of the Necropolis

Where does that leave Hogaak Bridgevine? The short answer is: dead. Without Bridge, the combo isn't possible. Looping Hogaak requires a continuous stream of black or green creatures, and that isn't possible for current lists without Bridge. The nearest analogue I could find is Golgari Germination, which actually has to be cast and resolve like a real Magic card to do anything. This creates anti-synergy with the Stitcher's Supplier engine that was the core of the old Bridgevine deck since they cannot recklessly mill themselves to success.

If Hogaak players wish to keep playing their decks, adjustments will need to be made. The ideal curve for pre-ban decks was getting a Hogaak and two Bridges into the graveyard with Stitcher's Supplier turn one, then playing Alter of Dementia turn two and going infinite immediately. Now they'll have to cast Germination on turn 3 before they can even think about looping Hogaak for value, and can't actually go infinite without playing a second Germination turn 4.

That's worse enough that I cannot imagine it being good enough for Modern. Therefore, I don't think Hogaak combo will be viable anymore. It's easy enough to stock the graveyard for Hogaak, but the limiting factor is having creatures for convoke. Even hitting well and flooding the board with Bloodghasts and/or Vengevines turn two isn't enough to loop Hogaak enough to win via decking. At that point, Hogaak becomes a liability since attacking with the creatures rather than durding with him is a shorter route to victory.

Relocating the Necropolis

Hogaak really wants to be in a graveyard aggro deck like Bridgevine. It needs cheap creatures to convoke and a full graveyard. Thus, the natural home is Bridgeless Bridgevine. Wizards believes that such a deck is possible.

Without Bridge from Below to continually produce Zombie tokens with which to convoke, the interaction between Hogaak and Altar Of Dementia should become more about stocking the graveyard for value over multiple turns rather than completing a one-turn win combo.

I disagree. Without the possibility of a combo kill, there's very little reason to bother feeding Hogaak to Altar. The deck that remains is a straight Vengevine aggro deck, intending to swarm the opponent quickly with recursive threats. There's no reason to spend a turn playing and then sacrificing Hogaak, since such a deck needs to hit well with Stitcher anyway.

Therein lies the ultimate problem with Bridgeless Bridgevine. Bridge gave these decks something meaningful to hit when they didn't get their ideal aggro curve, as the decks are filled with dinky 1/1 enablers. Bridge turned them into something actually threatening for those times Vengevine was stuck in hand or in the bottom third of their library. Lacking Bridge, the deck loses its middle ground of zombie beatdown. Now there's only the occasional explosion or otherwise anemic creatures, and I doubt that's good enough for Modern.

Logistical Nightmare

With that in mind, where might Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis find a new home? Dredge seems the obvious answer, but I'm not sure. The list is so tight I don't know that Hogaak can fit in.

Dredge, Claudio Barrientos Ochoa (MC London)

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Narcomoeba
2 Golgari Thug
4 Prized Amalgam
4 Stinkweed Imp

Artifacts

4 Shriekhorn

Instants

1 Darkblast

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Cathartic Reunion
4 Life from the Loam
2 Conflagrate
4 Creeping Chill

Lands

4 Copperline Gorge
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Blood Crypt
2 Stomping Ground
1 Ghost Quarter
1 Bloodstained Mire
1 Dakmore Salvage
1 Gemstone Mine
1 Steam Vents
1 Mountain
1 Forest

What exactly do you cut to make room for Hogaak? Cutting creatures isn't going to work. Prized Amalgam is the point of the deck, and it needs its own enablers in Bloodghast and Narcomoeba. However, those don't really synergize with Hogaak. Amalgam enters play tapped and on end step, so it can't cast Hogaak and Narcomoeba is blue, leaving only the vampire spirits to cast him.

Looking elsewhere is also trouble. Cutting enablers like Shriekhorn is out of the question, as is cutting the dredge package; they're what make the deck work. Lands can't be cut since Dredge already runs the bare minimum. Creeping Chill is critical to giving Dredge other angles of attack, and has significantly increased the deck's success since its printing. Darkblast is the weakest card in Dredge, so maybe cutting it and having Hogaak as a one-of is acceptable.

However, does all that hoop-jumping actually benefit the deck? Hogaak is a big beefy creature, but Dredge wins via overwhelming the opponent with early damage, then closing with Chill and Conflagrate. Hogaak doesn't mesh with that plan. If Vengevine Aggro isn't good enough, and Dredge doesn't want it, I don't know what other deck is willing to feed the Necropolis.

Where Does Modern Go?

The ban being so targeted means that no other deck must adapt. In a sense, that means that Modern can revert to its pre-Horizons configuration, though I don't think it will. Too much has been added to the format between Horizons and Core 2020 for that to happen. Instead, Modern will return to a state of heavy flux as the new cards are integrated. Hogaak was warping the format, and all the testing and brewing was done with the warp in mind. Now it's back to the drawing board.

Getting Complacent

One thing I am certain of is that next week's 5-0 deck dumps will show lots of decks cutting their graveyard hate now that Hogaak is gone. Don't. Do. That. You always need graveyard hate in Modern. With Hogaak going away, normal Dredge will return in force. Don't just lose to Dredge.

Similarly, Jund got some new toys, and they utilize graveyard synergies as well. Seasoned Pyromancer and Wrenn and Six are making the cut now. The former's real value is on the front end, but Wrenn does nothing worthwhile with Rest in Peace in play.

Looking Ahead

With Bridge finally gone, Modern can finally figure out what all the new cards enable. The graveyard will still be a critical zone that successful decks must remember to interact with, but the overall format will start to look more normal. And that means more interesting decks can find their place in Magic's most diverse format.

MTGO: The Rares of Modern Horizons

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Welcome back, folks! In my last article, I discussed the financial outlook of the most expensive cards and other mythic rares of Modern Horizons on MTGO. This week I'm going to take a look at some of my favorite rare speculation targets. Which cards are overvalued? Which cards are undervalued? Let's dig in!

I. Speculations to Avoid

1. Force of Negation

Current Buy Price: $33.07

Force of Negation is already a Legacy and Modern staple and is the most-played card in the set. Oftentimes acting as Force of Will numbers five and six in Legacy Delver strategies and serving to check some of the brokenness in Modern, Force of Negation will continue to hold a high-value long term. I question, though, whether it can grow beyond the $30 to $35 price point it has been hovering at for the past two weeks. It is possible, but I wouldn't want to tie up so much capital in a card just as likely to go down to $25 as to go up to $40.

At best this is a spec you should unload before October when Medwin brings the card to a treasure chest near you. I think it's fine to own a playset of it, but I wouldn't be speculating on it.

2. Altar of Dementia and Hogaak, Arisen Necropolis

Current Buy Price of Altar of Dementia: $2.77
Current Buy Price of Hogaak: $4.33

You know why. Don't get caught holding these cards. The prices of both are already depressed due to an expectation that the deck will get nerfed, and I'm confident that expectation will become reality. Modern Horizons was a great set, but one thing absent I hoped it would contain was a toned down version of Faithless Looting. Maybe we'll get one soon.

3. Crashing Footfalls

Current Buy Price: $0.93

There aren't many rares and mythics from Modern Horizons that I think could plummet in price, but Crashing Footfalls is one of them. Many people are experimenting with the card in Legacy and Modern in Free Spells shells. If the card ultimately doesn't pan out, it will likely be worth a quarter. If it does, I don't think its price will be all that much higher than where it currently is. This is a card I want to own a playset of if I'm playing with it, but it's not a card I want to invest in.

II. Safer Speculation Targets

1. The Canopy Lands

Current Buy Prices: $4.12 -- $4.84

Probably the most obvious investment targets in the set, these lands are sure to go up in price over time as long as they aren't included in the Fall treasure chest update at a frequency higher than 6. These lands are great and will be used from now until the end of time. Expect them to settle between $10-$15, with Sunbaked Cayon commanding a slight premium due to Red and White traditionally being the weakest card advantage colors.

2. Archmage's Charm

Current Buy Price: $0.91

Archmage's Charm is one of those sneakily good spec targets that flies under the radar of most traditional MTG Finance discourse because it's not sexy and wouldn't be a good spec target in paper. It is, however, (i) in the best color, (ii) versatile, and (iii) has a third mode that is back-breaking against some popular cards and decks. I don't expect this card to become a breakout sensation, but its power will likely mean it commands a price of at least $2.00 sometime in the nearish future.

3. Force of Vigor

Current Buy Price: $3.02

During spoiler season I thought that Force of Vigor would see more play in Modern than any other card in Modern Horizons. Obviously, I was wrong, but some of the reason for that is that the Hogaak menace has pushed out some of the decks that Force of Vigor was meant to keep in check. Force of Vigor is still seeing play anyway in a variety of decks, and I expect that to increase if the Hogaak decks get nerfed. It's hard to imagine Force of Vigor being less than a $5 card, so this is one I'll likely be investing in. It's too potent a tool.

III. Riskier Speculation Targets

1. Force of Rage

...Just kidding! Just kidding!

I still can't believe this card got printed.

1. Goblin Engineer

Current buy price: $1.44

Goblin Engineer is a very powerful card, capable of putting artifacts like God-Pharaoh's Gift into the graveyard, and retrieving cards like Ensnaring Bridge from the graveyard. Its price is a bit high for my liking right now, but that's largely because it is already seeing experimental play in a variety of decks and archetypes. From a financier's perspective, this card is somewhat similar to Archmage's Charm, except that it has a lower floor and a higher ceiling. Likely a risk I'll be taking though, especially if it goes below $1.00 again.

2. Pashalik Mons

Current Buy Price: $0.06

Goblin Ringleader is coming to Modern in a few short weeks, and that might be the shot in the arm that pushes Goblins into tier one or tier two territory in Modern. Pashalik is at bulk pricing now, and even though it might not work out now, it could work out in the future and skyrocket in price.

3. Hall of Heliod's Generosity

Current Buy Price: $0.08

Hall of Heliod's Generosity is definitely a longshot, but at bulk pricing, I don't mind swinging for the fences. The biggest problem this card has when compared with Academy Ruins is relatively straightforward; I believe MaRo has said it himself: conceptually, enchantments are more likely to be things that don't get sacrificed or used up than artifacts. With that said, you never know what will get printed in the future that will make this card see real Modern and Legacy play. We shouldn't discount the casual demand this card will have with Enchantress Commander decks either.

 

IV. Signing Off

Thank you for reading. Undoubtedly there are other good opportunities in this set, and just because I didn't cover something here doesn't mean that you should avoid it. The set is chock full of cards that could see Modern and Legacy play, and as a supplemental set supply for all these cards will be low (especially those that lack the demand to be put in the treasure chests in October).

My coverage of Core 2020 will mirror that of War of the Spark. Shortly after release, I will do a financial power ranking of the mythics, and then once the set approaches peak supply I will do a financial power ranking of the rares and uncommons. As always, I try to write my articles just before it's wise to act on what I'm discussing. If you have any questions, leave them in the comments below or hit me up in the QS Discord.

Stop Wasting Time on MTG Finance

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Social media has escalated the visibility of MTG Finance. Not a day passes by when someone touts a profitable transaction or shares some words of wisdom on how to approach the latest and greatest set. If you wanted to fill an entire day solely by consuming content about making money in Magic, there would be no shortage of content to view.

While the façade put up by the community is one of profit-driven excitement, this experience is only skin-deep. Underneath the surface, you’ll find hours of grinding, research, and shipping cards at break-even pricing simply to maintain liquidity. Have you ever really stopped to think about how much time you’re spending on this hobby?

MTG Finance: Is It Worth It?

According to my personal tracking, this marks the 400th full-length, stand-alone MTG finance article I’ve written. Nearly eight years spent researching, trading, and writing about the greatest hobby of all time. But in all this content creation, I’ve not once stepped back to ask the question: is MTG Finance really worth it? Do the financial gains justify the endless hours of work required to truly be successful?

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Let’s take a step back and consider this for a moment, and try to capture all the ways we’re spending time on MTG Finance:

  • Researching Prices – This is a daily activity of mine because I track card prices on MTG Stocks. I also review Card Kingdom’s hotlist daily so I can monitor the cards they are most interested in acquiring (at possibly aggressive prices). Since Card Kingdom updates their buylist more than once a day, I tend to check back a couple times. Add in occasional price checks at other sites, and this activity takes up about 30-45 minutes per week.
  • Social Media Engagement – The amount of time spent on MTG Finance while engaging in social media is tricky to quantify because there is always overlap with other engagements. But between Twitter, Discord, Facebook, Instagram, etc., the total time is not insignificant. I actively engage in Discord and Twitter conversation about Magic, but even if you’re just lurking you could still be sinking minutes of time out of every day in this hobby. I estimate this takes 2 hours of my time in total per week.
  • Transactions – This time commitment varies. For some QS Insiders, this may be the majority of sunk time into the hobby. I see some people posting long lists of recent sales in the Sales Reporting channel on Discord. On the other hand, I average only 1-2 sales per week along with 2-3 buylist orders. So I’ll estimate this time commitment at 60-90 minutes per week, but your mileage may vary.
  • Other – In this category are activities that don’t occur weekly: watching video coverage to see what’s hot in the latest metagame, engaging in discussion on B&R changes, picking through bulk (a true time sink), and any number of other ways one can engage in this hobby. Let’s bucket this all together as another hour per week, on average.

Add it all up, and we’re at around five hours per week. While everyone’s numbers will be different, the fact of the matter is this hobby is a major time sink. And we haven’t even sat down to play a game yet! I’d encourage everyone to repeat the same exercise I did above, really getting honest with themselves, and use the result to determine whether or not it’s really worth their time.

Three Tips to Streamline Your MTG Finance Approach

It’s true my time on MTG Finance is sprinkled throughout a day, a few minutes here and a few minutes there. But the time does add up, and there are probably other things I would enjoy doing with at least a portion of that time. Perhaps we can make a concerted effort to cut down on some of the weekly activities that eat up the majority of our time spent on the hobby.

I’d wager I can still enjoy MTG Finance and turn a profit while cutting my time spent on the hobby in half. That’s going to be my challenge to anyone who feels they’re spending too much time on this hobby. And I have a couple ideas to share on how to accomplish this goal:

  1. Don’t get sucked into every bit of price movement. Much like in the stock market, card prices are constantly in flux, and somebody out there is making money every day. But that somebody doesn’t always have to be you. Be disciplined about the cards you speculate on, the cards you buy during a buyout, and the cards you choose to ignore. You don’t have to scavenge the internet for copies every time a card price doubles. This eats up unnecessary time and often becomes fruitless because buyouts are more thorough nowadays. This morning I noticed Storage Matrix spiked. I could spend 10 minutes checking every obscure Magic store I know to see if I can find copies at the old price. But if I do this every day, the time spent becomes very high. My time may be better spent elsewhere.
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  1. Cut down on social media. This will be the most difficult adjustment for me, but perhaps others will not have such a hard time with it. I am constantly refreshing Twitter and Discord because I want to be in front of any price move. But even this level of vigilance has not helped me catch every buyout. In fact, I estimate that 95% of the time I refresh these two apps, I find very little of consequence. I’m going to try and deliberately set times in my day when I can catch up on social media rather than constantly engaging in discussion. If I miss one more buyout, so what? I ignore most the hype on social media anyways, since I tend to focus on older cards (with the exception of some Modern Horizons pickups).
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  1. Reduce the “Other” category towards zero. While this varies by individual, we all probably have various time sinks in this hobby that we can dramatically reduce. Do we really need to watch coverage of every Grand Prix or every SCG Open? Half the time, Standard’s metagame is stale and the opportunities to profit are nonexistent. If bulk picking is your “thing”, do you really think it’s worth your time to dig through boxes of cards looking for nickels and dimes? Personally, I find this activity relaxing and I enjoy the hunt, but is the activity really adding up to something worthwhile? Perhaps not. Perhaps my time is better spent focusing on the big cards and I let the nickels pass through my net. They’re too small to be worth pursuing most of the time.

Twitter debates are always toxic, so avoid engagement in any discussion around leaks, B&R speculation, new formats that are the flavor of the month, and most critically, the Reserved List. Don’t ever engage in Reserved List debate—no one escapes such discussions a “winner”. Everyone loses every time. Period.

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Wrapping It Up

Magic is a wonderful hobby with numerous ways to engage. For many reading this article, the primary way of engagement is MTG Finance. But if you’re like me, you’re spending way too much time on this hobby with little to show for it.

Moving forward, I’m going to make a deliberate effort to spend less time on MTG Finance. There are multiple ways this can be done, and I summarized a few key tips in this article. Hopefully, people can reapply this approach to come up with their own strategy.

I’m already excited to think about what I will do when I cut this time sink down. Perhaps that’s another way of getting motivated to reduce my MTG Finance time—I’ll think about the additional time I’ll have to read a book, play with my children, or catch up on a movie. If I consciously realize that this precious time I’m doing a different hobby is a result of less MTG Finance time, I’ll realize the benefits.

While I certainly don’t want to eschew MTG Finance completely, I think such a reduction is something we can all benefit from. After all, who really wants to spend more time on social media? No thank you!

…

Sigbits

  • Mox Diamond is certainly a hot card right now. I’ve obtained two from ABU Games using store credit, and both sold on eBay within 24-48 hours of listing. Card Kingdom’s buylist is getting quite aggressive: $190 for Stronghold copies and $205 for the FtV foils. Keep an eye on this one, especially if you’re in the market for some copies yourself.
  • As usual, there are a bunch of Masterpiece cards on CK’s hotlist. It seems they’re always trying to restock these cards. This week, some key cards on their list include Mox Opal ($180), Force of Will ($170), Misty Rainforest ($175), and Chalice of the Void ($140). It feels like these cards are permanently pinned to Card Kingdom’s hotlist.
  • One card that seems to have climbed up on Card Kingdom’s hot list lately is Antiquities Hurkyl's Recall. They currently offer a $50 buy price for the blue instant. This may seem impressive, but ABU Games is even more eager to acquire copies. They offer $53.82 cash for near mint copies, or $123.05 in credit!

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