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Insider: Diving into Modern Daily Data

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Time to Pass on Past in Flames?

PTQ season has officially switched into Modern, but there isn’t exactly a wealth of data available yet from high level events. Times like these are a good time to turn to MTGO Daily decklists. I spent some time this week pouring over some of the most recent 4-0 decklists from Modern Daily Events (DE’s), and taking a look at what a Modern deck costs, both in paper, and on MTGO. The data I compiled is found here, and I’ll be referencing it throughout my analysis. Keep in mind, this is only 7 from a few different events in the past week, but this should give us a grasp of what this format is looking like, and how it will move (if at all).

What is this data? I compiled pricing from 3 different sources. MTGOtraders.com, Starcitygames.com and blacklotusproject.com. Above each column you’ll see two calculations. Above any (each) column, I show the average price per card (Mainboard on top, Sideboard beneath), and above the (total) columns I show the total cost of the Mainboard and Sideboard respectively. When appropriate I selected the least expensive version of a card.

First Glance
Range is the one of the broadest ways to look at the spread of a dataset. On MTGO the range is from about $50 to about $700+. In paper, the two token decks are the only ones under $100, and Jund is in the $800 vicinity. Especially when a format is hot on MTGO, grinders want to shift into decks that are profitable. Meaning they could recoup any investment into the deck by grinding daily events. If they already have the cards for a deck like Jund, sure they’ll play it. But what if they don’t? They gravitate toward the cheaper deck that has also been having success in DE’s. If this happens enough, the key rares in those cheaper decks start to rise. This is something to look for. The range on paper cards isn’t as drastic. Most of the decks sit very close to to the same $175-225 mark, while the token decks are about half of that price and Jund is about 4 times the price. If I owned a Jund deck and I was playing Modern, I’d want to be certain it was the best choice if I had to tie up 4 times the funds to play with the deck for the season.

One step deeper

How is this data useful to me, unless I’m just buying a deck? This is the real question. The reason we want to look at this data is to predict how people will behave going forward. Sure, the die-hard grinders are already on MTGO firing away at DE’s, but most people I know are still tinkering with proxies at the LGS before they dip an investment into physical or MTGO cards. Most local PTQ’s don’t really pick up until next month, and people are still learning the format. With a deck like the tokens deck (Two variants in the past week have 4-0’d) there’s no question people will latch on to it, seeing as they could order the entire deck from SCG for $100. The other thing I noticed from the mono White deck is Proclamation of Rebirth. It’s the 2nd most expensive card in the deck on MTGO behind Elspeth, but in paper it sits about the same price as many of the staple uncommons. It can fall into a number of other strategies as well, and the fact that the MTGO price has already climbed so much comparatively, leads me to believe it’s paper counterpart may be right behind it.

We’re also able to look at cards that are appearing in multiple archetypes. Ethersworn Canonist has been found in a bunch of these lists, as is Relic of Progenitus/Tormod's Crypt/Nihil Spellbomb. We’re seeing tons of Storm hate here, guys and gals. Will storm lose popularity as a result? If so, the only card that stands to fall is Past in Flames. I’d be shipping out on those immediately. Alternatively, I noticed Mindbreak Trap in one of the sideboards, and found it was a $13 card on MTGO as a singleton in the board! If this is any type of indication, these are going to be hard to come by when the paper PTQ’s begin, and I’m placing an order for a handful of these as soon as I finish this article.

Wrap-up

This isn’t meant to be an all-inclusive list of every deck in the format, but a snapshot of what things look like right now. This is the type of digging I use to figure out what to target in trades, what to dish out cash for to hoard, and what to dump. It’s well known the paper market lags behind the MTGO market, and looking for anomalies in prices and decks is a valuable asset at the trade tables.

I hope you all find this data useful. If there’s demand for it, I can continue to update the spreadsheet for the next couple of weeks.

Find me on twitter! @torerotutor
Chad Havas

Five Cards To Build Around In Modern

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I have made it no secret that I really like Modern. Whether you feel the same addiction to making fun decks or whether you just want to win PTQs, I have got some hot tech for you today. I'm presenting five cards that are worth building heavily around. They are not simply toss-ins, but they aren't so narrow that you have to maximize them at the expense of the rest of your deck. Let's jump in!

Has anyone else noticed how good this guy got when Punishing Fires left? Wretch is an absolute monster on someone's graveyard and he's a reasonable beater, to boot. Against Zoo, he makes sure Lavamancers don't turn on and Tarmogoyfs remain 0/1s. He invalidates Snapcaster Mage completely. He turns off Mystical Teachings' Flashback and smashes recursive strategies.

Speaking of recursion, there are a lot of decks in Modern right now that exploit the poor quality of maindeckable graveyard hate. I consider things like Gifts decks in this category. If you have two or three Wretches with some backup, they'll never be able to use their namesake spell the way they want to. Wretch is the best (only) graveyard hate that I would be proud to maindeck. The more you play him, the more you love him. You'll find him breaking Martyr of Sands recursion before too long.

Build around it by: stocking up on a heavy black list that can apply early pressure. Wretch is a long-term card and he's mana-intensive, but he shuts down other long-term strategies. Combine with things like Dark Confidant or slot it right into a Jund deck (but pack those Graven Cairns!).

People are taking serious runs at making ramp decks in Modern, but they're all awful. They run things like Overgrown Battlement and Llanowar Elves. Why not spend your first turn suspending Search For Tomorrow, your second turn with Sakura-Tribe Elder and your third turn with Bloom? On the fourth turn, you're tapping out to cast Tooth and Nail or Kozilek, Butcher of Truth. You're in kissing distance of hardcasting Emrakul. There's probably a place for ramp decks in Modern, and Vernal Bloom requires that kind of attention.

Build around it by: playing 22-24 basic forests - maybe you want Stomping Ground for that Red Sun's Zenith. Combine with Summoning Trap and Tooth and Nail. Max out on Kozilek and Emrakul. Ramp for three turns, then explode onto the board. The inevitability that comes with shuffling your Tooths back every time they kill your Eldrazi means you'll never hurt for gas.

Modern sometimes involves big creature mobs smashing each other. Rise gets the most out of it, whether you want to tempo someone or get some recursion with your Snapcasters. Rise almost always has targets. Unsummon isn't great in this format, but maybe Unsummon and Raise Dead become good. When you are pulling back a Snapcaster from the grave and bouncing your Vendilion Clique for a reload, that combo is just fine.

Fall is 3/4ths of a Hymn to Tourach. You can't mana-screw an opponent, but you can do just about everything else that Hymn can do. Modern has a paucity of playable draw cards. What you draw in the opening seven is pretty much what you'll be working with for your first few turns, so losing two of those cards at random is crippling. That triple Kird Ape draw from Zoo can get ripped into a one-monkey rush, unable to get a foothold against an opponent who is working their way into goodies like Bloodbraid Elf. It's fine later in the game if the opponent isn't wisely holding lands in their hand. Ripping out that Path to Exile before casting your finisher is superb.

Build around it by: playing Grixis colors. Fall is good enough to cram into Jund and never cast the Rise part outside of Cascading, but that re-buy on creatures is what makes this split card worthwhile. I have had success with it in Gifts piles with Snapcaster and by pulling back value guys like Gatekeeper of Malakir.

Let's put aside the bad combo of Gifts for Rites and Iona and look at what else this spell will do. Five mana is eminently reachable in Modern, especially if you run a little bit of ramp. When you get there, you get to put whatever monster you threw away back into play. That means your evoked Shriekmaw comes back for another taste. When you flash back the Rites, your Mulldrifter jumps back in. That one Rites can turn into a five-for-one with a deck built to attrition down an opponent. A lot of Modern decks have an issue with running out of steam and Unburial Rites solves that problem -TWICE!

Build around it by: playing it with lots of value creatures. I have faith that a B/W board control deck could be pretty decent in Modern. You control with Fiend Hunters and Shriekmaws, you draw cards with Phyrexian Arena and you buy back monsters like Wurmcoil Engine. Anything with an enters-the-battlefield effect is worth looking at with this. Avoid trying to game things by reanimating fatties and focus on getting three or four extra cards from your one Unburial Rites.

Exile isn't going to win you a game, but it will lock down creatures, especially now that Fires is gone. Let's say you're playing a slower control deck like Teachings and you've managed to blow away all of the early monsters. Exile lets you lock down the assault. They'll have to play more creatures and overextend into a Damnation or just get those same critters chipped away. For a deck without reach, beating Exile is nearly impossible.

Build around it by: playing Gifts Ungiven and grabbing your lone copy with this. It's also not out of the realm of possibility to play this like a Squee, feeding an engine. I'd love to use this with Compulsion, for example, but that can't happen. I'm sure there are good alternatives, though.

Go forth and brew! These are oddball ideas, but they should get you thinking about the strong and weak points of decks in Modern.

Going in Blind: Claws First

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“Alright,” I thought, staring at the black words set in a white box. “I'm moving to Gathering Magic.”

I sat there, trying to figure out what I was going to send to Kelly and Tyler. It wasn't that I wanted to leave Quiet Speculation, it's just I'd already been feeling pressed for time last quarter between school and writing and I'm going to be taking an additional class this coming quarter.

“Well, maybe I could squeeze some time in if I stopped procrastinating...”

“Snap out of it. You could, but there's no point in stressing yourself that much; the content would be terrible.”

I lamented the fact that I couldn't comfortably fit in two writing positions.

“Oh, shut up! Lots of people would love to have one. Look at the Star City Games Talent Search!”

So I sat down and I wrote the email. And it really wasn't that bad, as Tyler and Kelly were supportive and understanding. The thing is, I still needed to say goodbye publicly. And that was bound to be a bit harder.

I could spend an entire column talking about the move, but that would be selfish. Most of the people who read this column don't know me or have any particular investment in my life.

They. Want. Content.

Oh... it looks like I've been forsaking that. Well, let's get some music on. Beatles? I guess I'm feeling pretty nostalgic. Anyway, time to take the leap of faith I need when I'm searching for content: I'm Going in Blind.

Click.

Click.

Click.

Click.

Click.

Click.

Click.

Click.

Zirilan does some pretty sweet stuff, but as with Myojin of Cleansing Fire, to justify running him as a Commander I need to find a job that he's the best at. Zirilan tutors for Dragons for a turn, but Scion of the Ur-Dragon does that while giving you access to more colors and dealing commander damage.

Areas of Expertise

The most obvious benefit that Zirilan offers is that, unlike [card Scion of the Ur-Dragon]Scion[/card], he actually makes his Draconic friends enter and leave the battlefield. Still, while Bogardan Hellkite is pretty sweet, it's not going to make up for loosing out on four colors. The only real way to turn that into a downside is to run stuff like Ruination and Price of Progress, and I'm certainly not planning on doing that.

Zirilan's biggest advantage is that he can bring out multiple Dragons. Sure, Scion can turn into more than one Dragon in a turn by responding to his own ability, but Zirilan can actually make use of multiple creatures provided you can untap him. Even without a way to untap him, activating Zirilan during the end step of the turn before yours and then on your turn will allow you to attack with two Dragons at once.

Two by Two

To capitalize on Zirilan's ability, I first looked for Dragons that had synergistic abilities to attack together with but came up short. Defeated, I skimmed the list of Dragons within Zirilan's color identity and absentmindedly added Dragon Tyrant to the list.

I don't like the Tyrant in Scion deck because he just leads to Commander damage kills, but here he should just attack for a lot without making you pay his upkeep. On top of that, the 18+ damage he represents as early as turn six can come out of nowhere.

After I finished going through, I looked back at the candidates I'd pulled out and as I scanned past Draco, I thought again about [card Zirilan of the Claw]Zirilan[/card]'s ability to bring two Dragons out of nowhere. And an idea hit me: I could build the deck to swing for huge amounts of unexpected damage! I proceeded to tap the best of the best for inclusion:

Implications

Great! Now all I have to do is figure out what sort of deck wants this type of sudden damage. My first thought was aggro, but not only is that sort of pressure hard to maintain in multiplayer, it doesn't make very good use of Dragons you draw or Zirilan's tutoring capabilities.

To take advantage of those benefits, Zirilan needs to play control, but it also needs to soften up the competition.

Luckily, this lizard again provides his own solutions. Balefire Dragon and Steel Hellkite will act as removal while dealing some damage, and Bogardan Hellkite and Fire Dragon allow Zirilan to play like [card Visara the Dreadful]Visara[/card] while still getting an attack in if you grab them on your own turn or don't need to grab them until the end step of the turn before yours. On top of that, Dragon Mage and Knollspine Dragon can net you more cards than Red typically ends up with.

The issue with all of these options is that you have very limited access to these effects because of the scarcity of similar cards, which means that getting them exiled by Zirilan's ability isn't going to cut it.

Thankfully Zirilan doesn't work like [card Dregscape Zombie]Unearth cards[/card] do, so we can reuse the Dragons with a little bit of extra effort.

Out of the Loop

Ultimately we need to get Dragons back into our library, but Mirror of Fate hardly seems like the solution. The easiest zone for Red (or rather, colorless) to get cards into the library from is the graveyard. And, luckily, it's not too hard to get creatures on the battlefield into the 'yard either.

Of course, requiring more pieces to start doing things entails greater difficulty in getting started, but if you really need to keep a particular Dragon around, you can always get it before your turn and subsequently search out a Predator Dragon to feed it to.

With a bunch of sacrifice effects already in place, we even get to include hits like Hoarding Dragon that don't do much with Zirilan on their own. And he'll let us convert mana into [card Miren the Moaning Well]life[/card] or [card Blasting Station]damage[/card].

The list up to this point does a good job of swinging with two dragons on demand after acting like a Red [card Visara the Dreadful]Visara[/card] deck for turns on end, but, as I mentioned earlier, we can squeeze a bit more value out of this particular Viashino.

Do it Again

As a Foil Addict™, I've been accruing cards that I thought I would put to use in Commander, and the group I'm most surprised to see languishing outside of a deck is the untappers.

Lots of Legends have tap abilities and it seemed only natural to me that Thousand-Year Elixir, Magewright's Stone, and Thornbite Staff would see the light of day. This is certainly the time for it, as Zirilan's even been errataed into a Shaman!

Even though this dragonspeaker doesn't offer Blue's trickery, the most passionate of colors offers not one, but two forms of untapping. While not an ideal untapping mechanism, Grab the Reins certainly does its job.

Still, the more exciting way to untap our new favorite lizard is via Relentless Assault. What's better than getting another use out of Zirilan? Getting another attack out of the first [card Firebreathing]Firebreather[/card] he searched up!

Disconnect

I'd leave you here, but if you've read my prior Commander-related ramblings, you'll know that this deck, despite all of its cool interactions, is missing its most vital piece: Mana.

Playing Mono-Red affords us a few interesting options, such as Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle and Scrying Sheets, but the real benefit lies not in the lands, but in the ramp.

Mono-colored decks of all stripes run explosive mana doublers like Caged Sun, Extraplanar Lens, and Gauntlet of Power. While Red may not give us Cabal Coffers or Vernal Bloom, it does offer Gauntlet of Might.


Shamelessly stolen from NonoKraken on deviantART.

Such a mountain of Red mana enables [card Zirilan of the Claw]Zirilan[/card]'s shenanigans and goes a long way toward making the deck's Dragons lethal. On top of that, it takes an awful lot of mana to attain a sizable Dragonstorm count.

Wrap it all together, and:

Daredevil

The Claw

Stinging Sands

Scorching Sun

Flowers of the Oasis

Heat's Toll

Fusing Sand

Windblown Tracks

Shifting Dunes

Bedrock

22 Snow-Covered Mountain

That's All Folks

Well I guess that's the end. You may see me back for an extra article sometime, but this was my last regularly scheduled piece for Quiet Speculation. I'll certainly miss writing here, but I'm looking forward to seeing all of the things this coming year brings, both for myself and for this website.

As always, I'd love to hear from you, but for now I'll just wish you a happy new year!

Jules Robins
julesdrobins@gmail.com/Google+
@JulesRobins on twitter

Insider: 2012 MTG New Year’s Resolutions

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While it is still 2011 as I compose this article, you will be reading it shortly after New Year’s.

So Happy New Year! I hope everyone had an enjoyable, safe holiday. As I embrace the New Year, which will be filled with many new adventures, I wanted to take this opportunity to take a step back and reflect upon one of the holiday’s biggest traditions – New Year’s Resolutions!

Last Year’s Resolutions

On January 1st, 2011 I took on two resolutions.

The first was that I intended to read at least ten pages for pleasure every day. While some may brush this aside as a slam dunk, it became very difficult to make a conscious effort to read every single day. After only three months, I simply could not remember to maintain this promise to myself day in and day out. Epic fail.


(picture courtesy of http://alexsah.com/demotivational-poster-epic-fail-guy/)

Despite this regretful lapse, I did manage to uphold my second New Year’s Resolution. Conveniently enough, it’s also a Magic-related one!

After playing the game of Magic for about fifteen years, I was interested in (read: paranoid about) how much money I have spent on my hobby.

Without any previous documentation, this estimation is virtually impossible. I have purchased so many packs, so many singles, and paid so many tournament entry fees that there would be no way for me to recall all the incurred costs.

As an exercise of discipline and to satisfy my curiosity, my second resolution for 2011 was to record all out-of-pocket expenses paid on this game. This included all tournament entries, LGS purchases, and in person collection purchases, but does not include cards purchased online using funds available from selling other cards. The overall intent of this activity is to help me understand my annual cost to playing this game with the ultimate goal of reducing the cost each subsequent year until the hobby pays for itself.

Here are how the costs broke down:

My overall outflow of money less prizes and sales was around $500. I’m actually pleasantly surprised at the reasonable number – I suppose having a hectic professional and personal life outside of Magic will help keep my spending under control.

What I am even happier to see is that my “MTG account”, which houses my available Magic budget from selling cards, is in excess of $500. While my collection has shrunk significantly in order to get there, it is still encouraging that my net cash from playing Magic in 2011 was in the black. Hopefully I can grow this account further without trimming my collection much more.

2012: Some Old and Some New

For 2012’s resolutions, I want to up my Magic commitments to two. First, I want to build upon last year’s exercise. This proved to be an insightful tool and I anticipate being able to better streamline purchases so that I am further in the black in 2012 without trimming large portions of my collection. Now that I am dedicating time to Magic finance and speculation, it should be reasonable to expect such an outcome.

As I continue recording out-of-pocket Magic purchases, I will also pledge to be more disciplined in keeping track of expenses and gains to the penny. I can improve accuracy, for example, by recording the eBay value of cards I obtain with store credit winnings rather than the value of the credit itself. The goal is not to artificially obtain an inflated number, but rather to obtain a truly accurate assessment of my gains/losses from playing this game.

My second resolution for 2012 related to Magic will be a bit more daunting. My goal is to trade, buy, and sell cards so that I can accrue enough cash to purchase a high-value card (preferably power) from Star City Games. But rather than simply selling a [card Underground Sea]few dual lands[/card] to accomplish this, I want to maintain my collection’s approximate value while doing so.

Of course, I will need to make progress in baby steps. Through a series of speculative purchases, I intend to generate most of the funds. (Recent pick-ups include Misty Rainforest, Past in Flames, and foil Pristine Talisman, by the way). Additionally, I will attempt to trade some smaller cards up to a few larger cards which I can more readily sell. This approach is reliable because it is far easier to sell four $20 cards than to sell twenty $4 cards. Also, it is much easier to find great prices on cheaper cards since there are often hundreds of eBay auctions and MOTL listings available.

Major Takeaway

I realize this second goal is a steep one. I may end up failing yet again. Even if I do fail, however, the outcome will be a net positive one. Either way I'll be picking up solid haggling habits and I will be sharpening my speculation skill. I encourage you to consider a similar goal.

Perhaps every time you bank a few bucks on some speculations, put that money aside and see how it accumulates. If you find your Magic funds are declining faster than they are coming in, perhaps you should reconsider your approach. I know I will be.

If this is not a priority of yours, then may I make one final recommendation? Recording the amount of out-of-pocket purchases on Magic cards this year was eye opening. My tournament winnings paid for nearly two-thirds of my entry fees, not to mention the product I kept from prereleases and drafts! But I also learned that I was prone to spending money on singles a little too freely, often times spending cash on impulse purchases which I could have avoided through trading.

If anything, the practice will drive awareness to your annual expenses. If you are money conscious like I am, this information will prove to be very helpful in identifying how to cut costs or streamline things. And by tracking the same thing in 2012, I will be able to keep track of how my spending is going year over year. By measuring progress, I will be motivated to become a savvier trader and speculator. And if my bookkeeping is accurate enough, I should be able to determine to the penny how much I will be allowed to spend on that second resolution. Wish me luck!

Before concluding, I'd like to solicit for your 2012 MTG resolutions! Please comment on what they are and how others may be able to benefit by implementing them as well.

Thanks for reading!

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Insider: The Art of Arbitrage

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A few months ago I was lucky enough to find three sealed booster boxes of Dissension for sale at a local hobby shop for a great deal at $100 apiece, or $115 after taxes.

I quickly looked up eBay selling prices on my iPhone and confirmed that, indeed, I should buy them right away.

So I did. I sold them later that day for $150 each and made a cool $105 profit.

How long after I bought them did I have them sold? About 5 minutes. I walked from the initial point of purchase one block down the road to another comic book store and had them out of my hands immediately.

This is a story of arbitrage.

What is Arbitrage?

According to Wikipedia, Arbitrage is defined as:

… The practice of taking advantage of a price difference between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flowat any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit at zero cost.

While my example above did not fit 100% to the description due to the fact that I had to act as a broker (middleman) instead of having the exchange happen directly between the two stores, the fact that I had backed up my purchase by verifying profits to be made in another market (in this case, eBay) allows it to still fall within that category. It still followed the basic structure of:

  1. Find a product for sale at Market A
  2. Determine that you can sell it for more at Market B
  3. Buy from Market A and sell to Market B
  4. Profit! (Market $B - Market $A)

Seems simple, right? For our purposes… IT IS!

(Disclaimer: Yes yes yes… we could go on about the futures market, exchange traded funds, and imbalances in currency rates, but we’re talking small scale Magic Cards here, not the grain trade business. And this isn’t meant to be a hardcore economics class, just a primer.)

How Can I Get In On This?!

Odds are, you probably already are and may not even realize it. There are a few generalized examples that I can think of that we all probably already engage in.

Online Buying, Local Selling

How many of you visit sites like eBay or MOTL, purchase cards there, and then re-sell them in your own hometown for a tidy profit? The online world is a vast, global economy that presents products for sale from various regions around the world at prices that may differ from your local market.

When you purchase those 4x Stromkirk Noble for $16 online because you know that locally they sell for $6-7 each, you are indirectly performing a type of arbitrage! Granted, there was risk involved (what if no one wants to buy them when they arrive?), but by finding a buyer BEFORE you make the purchase, you will have achieved true arbitrage.

Next time you have that player complaining about how they are priced out of Legacy because the local B&M (Brick and Mortar) store is charging $65 for a Force of Will, there is no harm in asking: “Say, if I could get you a playset for $220… would you be interested?”.

If answer = YES, then:
            Buy online for $200
            Sell to Player for $220
Profit $20*!

(* = Minus any fees)

In this example there was NO risk, as you already had a buyer for the product you were bringing in. If you can get a few people's want lists completed all at the same time, there is a huge potential for profit. So ask around, see what people need and are willing to pay, and compare what you can get them for to determine if it’s worthwhile for you to buy it FOR them. With a tidy little cut for yourself, of course. 😛

Buy -> Sell Lists

Another common example of arbitrage would be something that the guys here at QS are always advocating… taking advantage of discrepancies between store buy and sell lists.

Since buy / sell lists are public, you can scour all that you want for opportunities and make a few quick dollars in the process! All it takes is for you to be at a convention and see Store A selling their Cryptic Commands at $8 and Store B buying at $10 for you to profit from this model. As long as one vendor does not sell out and the other vendor continues to buy, you can repeat this process ad nauseam until your cabal coffers are full.

MTGO is another excellent resource to follow this model. As you’ll primarily be dealing with bots, you can perform this buy / sell loop many more times in greater numbers.

Business Ventures

In pure arbitrage fashion, if your LGS (Local Gaming Store) is buying boxes for X and you can get them through your connections for Y, there may be room to discuss making the orders FOR your LGS!

This doesn’t apply solely to boxes, of course… it applies to every aspect of business they may carry! Have a hook up for Perfect Fit card sleeves from Asia that they may not be able to order? If they want 100 packs for $3 each and you can get them for $2… that’s $100 (- fees) in your pocket!

Even if it’s just an occasional or one time purchase like in the Perfect Fit example, it’s worthwhile to build the business relationship for the future.

Simple Trading

Trading in itself is a form of arbitrage. You and your trading partner can both be considered micro-markets, and the trade itself is an exchange of goods that results in loss, gain, or breakeven for one or both party members.

The wants/needs of the individuals will reflect the value of the goods being traded. And since an individual may value the goods more or less than the actual market, this allows us to profit due to the variance between perceived value and actual value.

We can take this a step further and actively solicit traders to determine their wants, trade for them from someone else, then re-trade them to the party who originally expressed interest for them to ensure that we make our “bottom line” in the deal.

This is especially useful when you find that one character who really, REALLY needs that 3rd Snapcaster Mage and you know someone who has one for trade at a lesser value than what your current partner is willing to pay.

Try and solidify a deal with a statement like: “Would you trade X for Y if I can get them for you? Could you hold Y for 15 minutes as I try and get you X?” There would be nothing worse than finally acquiring that Snapper just to have your original partner state that they no longer needed it.

Which bring us to…

Perils and Pitfalls

While arbitrage is an excellent business model, there are still risks and expenses involved that could cost you and/or the other party involved time and money. Be sure to bear in mind the following considerations:

1) Shipping costs

If you have to pay to get product from point A to B, ensure that the shipping costs are not greater than your profit. In our Force of Will example, it would be pointless to buy @ $200 and sell @ $220 if shipping was >= $20. I was actually just burned on this, as I’d promised to ship 2x Foil Tarmogoyf registered to Singapore from Canada. I was going to make $50 on the deal (- S&H), but it turns out registered shipping cost me $45. Curse your antiquated postal system Canada Post!

So I made $5 and considered it a lesson learned…

2) Auction Fees & Customs

Along the same line of shipping, if your fees are going to be greater than your profit, that defeats the entire purpose of the purchase.

3) Market Fluctuations & Changes in Demand

If the cards you’ve ordered increase or decrease in value while waiting for them to arrive, you could make a little more, but you are mostly concerned with the risk of losing. If we really want to have 0% risk, I advocate on solidifying a deal before ordering when this is a route that you’re taking.

Going back to the 4x Stromkirk Noble for $16 example: if, by the time they actually arrive in your town, the market for them has dried up or local values have come into line with the global market, you’ll have a hard time selling them for profit if you didn’t already have a pre-existing deal with someone. Cover your bases!

4) Responsibility

YOU are the one acting as a middle man. YOU are the one responsible to ensure that the end users are happy.

The onus of safe delivery lies on YOU, and no one else. So while there is much profit to be made, it would be at YOUR consequence should something go wrong. If you accept someone’s $24 for those Nobles ($6 each) and the price spikes to $8 each when you go home to buy (cost now = $32 instead of $16), YOU are the one out that $8 ($32-$24) + shipping and fees.

A Free Lunch?

There is no such thing as free money. And while arbitrage is a nice way to protect your capital, it does come with its own risk and reward matrix like any other business venture. I hope that the tips and tricks that we’ve discussed today not only help you in your Magic deals, but also open your eyes to the vast possibilities that exist outside our cozy little niche market.

Hope you had a great New Years, everyone! Glad to see you here in 2012!

Cheers,
Carl Szalich

Carl Szalich

Currently found ranching Orggs in the wilds of London, Ontario, Canada, I've been playing MTG for the past 15 years. I remember when trading Dual Lands for Craw Wurms was the "in thing to do", and Shivan Dragon fought Royal Assassin to see which would carry the higher price tag. I'm primarily interested in MTG finance, and like a good Icatian Moneychanger I believe that we are all "bigger than we think" when it come to what we have, and what our potential may be.

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The Five Color Cascade Shuffle

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I could only go so long without making a quirky five-color deck, right?

I've been playtesting for the Modern PTQ season a ton recently and have been playing a couple of brews that abuse the pseudo-random nature the Cascade mechanic to always Cascade into specific spells. That particular strategy is something that's been going on since people initially figured out you could play gigantic monsters and Cascade into Hypergenesis to cheat them into play.

There's three problems with porting a Hypergenesis-style Cascade list directly from old Extended to Commander.

The first is that you only get one copy of Hypergenesis. If someone sweeps the board or counters your spell, you're on the plan of hardcasting fatties and midrange spells. The second problem is that you only have twelve Cascade spells in 99 cards, rather than no less than eight in 60. The last problem is that it puts strange conditions on what costs you can play and means that you really can't play many early game spells without disrupting your cascade chains.

Let's start by taking a look at the available Cascade spells and what kind of things you might want to Cascade into.

The Cascade Lottery

Unfortunately, there are only twelve cards with Cascade in existence at the moment which is an obstacle that needs to be overcome.

There's a thirteenth cascade card that will be incredible for this style of deck, Maelstrom Wanderer, but that's not coming out until the summer.

Notice the spread of casting costs of the Cascade spells. More than half of them cost four or less, which means that we will want to avoid playing cards that cost less than two or three unless they are the cards we want to be cascading into.

Cascade Spells

  • Ardent Plea
  • Bituminous Blast
  • Bloodbraid Elf
  • Captured Sunlight
  • Demonic Dread
  • Deny Reality
  • Enigma Sphinx
  • Enlisted Wurm
  • Kathari Remnant
  • Maelstrom Nexus
  • Stormcaller's Boon
  • Violent Outburst

Besides Bloodbraid Elf being the end-all of Standard for a season, people haven't done very much with Cascade besides finding cards from the Ancestral Vision cycle. I'm sure there's a ton of other sweet things you can do, but I don't really see a reason to change. The difference here is that I want to run all of them, just to complete the theme.

Bloodbraid Into...

  • Hypergenesis
  • Living End
  • Wheel of Fate
  • Restore Balance
  • Ancestral Vision

The interesting thing here is that these cards actually all do similar things and interact reasonably well.

Living End and Restore Balance are both sweepers if you need them to be. Living End also serves as a second Hypergenesis if you build your deck around it. Both Ancestral Vision and Wheel of Fate dig you into more Cascade spells, and Wheel of Fate even sets up your Living Ends!

Anyone who's familiar with Living End decks from old Extended knows that Cycling creatures are the crux of any Living End strategy. They set up for gigantic Living Ends while digging for Cascade spells or lands, all while giving you a back-up plan of just hardcasting fatties.

To be honest, I actually want a bulk of the deck to be Cycling creatures in order to increase the consistency of the deck and because with Land-cycling you can run fewer lands and increase your threat-density.

There are a few things worth noting when choosing your cycling creatures. First, that you want to overemphasize creatures with colorless cycling costs since this is a five-color deck. Second, you want to use mostly creatures costing four or more so that they stay out of the way of most of your Cascade spells. Last, we want to overemphasize creatures that are Black or White, for reasons revealed later. Here's the suite of cyclers I chose:

Where's My Fluctuator

  • Architects of Will
  • Bant Sojourners
  • Barkhide Mauler
  • Deadshot Minotaur
  • Drifting Djinn
  • Esper Sojourners
  • Grixis Sojourners
  • Hundroog
  • Jungle Weaver
  • Monstrous Carabid
  • Primoc Escapee
  • Ridge Rannet
  • Sanctum Plowbeast
  • Scion of Darkness
  • Street Wraith
  • Undead Gladiator
  • Yoked Plowbeast
  • Valley Rannet
  • Wirewood Guardian
  • Shoreline Ranger
  • Twisted Abomination
  • Noble Templar
  • Pale Recluse
  • Krosan Tusker
  • Igneous Pouncer
  • Jhessian Zombies
  • Elvish Aberration
  • Eternal Dragon
  • Chartooth Cougar

There are a few interesting effects attached to these cycling cards and a few interesting choices to make.

The Sojourner cycle from Alara Reborn has a number of interesting effects which could be reasonable choices, depending on what you're trying to accomplish. Of those, I'm only running the Bant, Esper, and Grixis Sojourner.

Grixis Sojourners is awesome, since it's graveyard hate to make your Living End more one-sided. Bant Sojourners creates White permanents, which will end up being very important. Esper Sojourners seems like a techy card I'd be glad to have on occasion. Being able to untap a blocker or tap a Cabal Coffers on someone's upkeep seems like enough of a high end that I'm willing to give it a shot.

The real question is this: what does the deck do besides cast Living End? You've only got one of them and have, at best, a one-in-five chance of Cascading into it. The goal here is to find other effects that play well with the kind of set up that Living End demands, but ones which don't mess up the Cascade chains at lower converted mana costs.

The Back-Up Plan

  • Living Death
  • Twilight's Cal
  • Pyrrhic Reviva
  • Kessig Cagebreakers
  • Nature's Resurgence
  • Death or Glory
  • Grimoire of the Dead
  • Necromancer's Covenant
  • Spider Spawning
  • Tombstone Stairwell
  • Balthor, the Defiled
  • Liliana Vess
  • Flame-Kin Zealot
  • Madrush Cyclops

It's not much, but it'll do. I think.

Spider Spawning may just be a result of me playing a little too much Innistrad limited, but I think it's fine. I wanted some number of spells that your opponent doesn't gain value off of, since so many of your win conditions reanimate their stuff as well.

The weakest card here is Necromancer's Covenant, but I think that it's pretty necessary. If you run into another Graveyard deck, then you get to hate on them pretty hard. It's also a way to make your Living End more one-sided.

The haste cards are also pretty important, since they give you ways to just kill people in the late game. It's also important to note which haste-enablers were chosen. I picked creatures that are Black or White, and which cost four or more so that they interact favorably with cards like Balthor the Defiled and don't interrupt your Cascades.

Choose Your Character!

At this point, the deck is 58 cards, which means I want ten or so more cards before I start adding lands, since all of our cyclers will enable us to hit land drops.

The important thing to decide now is who the Commander is going to be, so that the remaining slots can be dedicated to maximizing your Commander's potential.

It's actually an interesting question: Horde of Notions and Child of Alara are the two best options available to you, but which contributes more? Let's take a look at the different cards we could run for each Commander:

Horde of Notions

  • Horde of Notions (Commander)
  • Mulldrifter
  • Shriekmaw
  • Ingot Chewer
  • Skullmulcher
  • Tar Fiend
  • Crib Swap
  • Spitebellows
  • Mournwhelk
  • Slithermuse

There are a few cool things here. The first is that your Cascade spells help you find Crib Swap, which is one of the most powerful things that you can do with Horde of Notions.

Second, the Evoke elementals interact pretty nicely with the Living End plan and give you a sort of back-up plan to attrition people out.

Last, the Devour elementals can be gamebreaking and can set up larger and larger mass reanimation spells all while making sure it's even harder for people to continue to disrupt you.

Child of Alara

  • Child of Alara (Commander)
  • Unburial Rites
  • Rise from the Grave
  • Beacon of Unrest
  • Momentous Fall
  • Reap and Sow
  • Genesis
  • Miren, the Moaning Well
  • High Market
  • Phyrexian Tower

You need the extra lands here since you're playing a more controlling game. Because they don't add colored mana, they're more like spells than lands and don't necessarily add to your land count.

Besides that, Child of Alara does two things. It does give you a great mechanism of controlling the board while you cycle into Cascade spells, but it also makes Living End pretty awkward, since you probably won't want to cast it with Child of Alara in play.

As much as I love a Child of Alara deck, I just think that Horde of Notions interacts better with the rest of the deck.

The Manabase

Let me tell you, this is not a fun deck to build a manabase for! Depending on the hand you draw, you could have all colorless cyclers and be fine with any lands or all one-cost cyclers that want a color you don't have. You can't play cheap fixing because it messes up your Cascades, and I wanted the deck to be pretty budgety since number of the manabases I've built recently have cost an arm and a leg. Here's what I settled on:

Utility Lands

  • Mistveil Plains
  • Tolaria West
  • Petrified Field
  • Kjeldoran Outpost
  • Springjack Pasture
  • Moorland Haunt
  • Bojuka Bog
  • Vesuva
  • Crypt of Agadeem

This entire section is built around one card which is supposed to give you longevity and resiliency in the late-game: Mistveil Plains.

How important is this card? Well, the deck runs the token-lands just to make sure you can hit two White permanents more consistently. Tolaria West and Petrified Field are there just to make sure you can find and protect your Mistveil Plains. The deck wants to run as many White-based fetchlands as possible to make sure that you can easily find Mistveil Plains.

The ability to recycle specific Cascade targets is incredibly powerful and means that you can be more aggressive with your Cascade spells since you will get to rebuy them at some point.

Mana Sources

  • Terramorphic Expanse
  • Evolving Wilds
  • Terminal Moraine
  • Grasslands
  • Flood Plain
  • Krosan Verge
  • Command Tower
  • Rupture Spire
  • Shimmering Grotto
  • Halimar Depths
  • 3 Swamp
  • 3 Forest
  • 3 Plains
  • 2 Mountain
  • 2 Island

Like I said, the deck wants to run as many ways to fetch Plains as it can. In this case, the only Mirage fetches it has is Krosan Verge, since this is a more budgety deck, but that should be okay.

Besides that, the only interesting card is Halimar Depths. Honestly, Halimar Depths is a card you could cut if you wanted to. It's there for the potential to set up Cascades or to know that you want to use one of your land cyclers to shuffle away the top three cards. I'm not sure whether or not that effect is worth a slot, but the effect is basically free, so it's worth trying.

With that, let's take a look at the finished list:

[deckbox did="a141" size="small" width="560"]

While the deck is a little linear, I'm pretty happy with how it turned out.

I like the psuedo-randomness of Cascade and the consistency that you get when roughly a third of your deck cycles. There are enough cards that you can't really break the symmetry of, like Tombstone Stairwell and Hypergenesis, that I don't think the deck is too unfair for most playgroups. And it's conveniently something that's pretty easy to hate out with any kind of graveyard hate or countermagic.

Because of the nature of Cascade, the deck will get to do some incredibly stupid things sometimes, like casting Enlisted Wurm and cascading Bituminous Blast into Bloodbraid Elf into Ancestral Vision. These are the kinds of swingy, high variance plays that the format is all about and is a huge part of why I'm so excited about playing more with this deck!

As always, if you've got any comments or suggestions about this deck, I'd be glad to hear them. This is one I'm planning to tinker with for awhile, so if you think there's something I've overlooked, I'm certainly interested.

For the next few weeks I'm planning on taking a look at some Artifact decks, since that's something I don't generally do because of the stigma attached to mana rocks and giant artifacts. I'm hoping there's a way to build these decks so that they're powerful but not overbearing or overly reliant on busted mana acceleration.

But first we'll look at building a Mono-Red deck next week.

Carlos Gutierrez
cag5383@gmail.com
@cag5383 on Twitter

Insider: Hidden Gems in Shards of Alara

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Welcome back and happy new year! This week, we will be taking a look at the not-so-distant past; we take a look back at the first half of the Shards of Alara set. Shards introduced the Mythic rarity, partly as a way to build more hype, though mainly to re-balance drafting. One can make powerful mythic rares (Planeswalkers, mainly) and they will not overpower drafts if they are less common. Garruk Wildspeaker was a wrecking ball in draft and Wizards wanted to keep those sorts of things from happening again.

Shards was a look at allied color sets (and where did we hear that before?). While fans like me were understandably tired of yet another set about color relationships, the set did explore interesting power combinations among trios of colors. It is the set from where we get our names of the allied color shards - Bant, Grixis and the like. Let's take a look at the high-value cards from the set!

Ajani Vengeant

$3.75

Ajani has a long and storied history in tournament decks. He can defend himself to an extent, both tapping down dudes and doing a reasonable Lightning Helix impersonation. Ajani factored into Standard control decks, often in sideboards. The idea was simple: in the control mirror, people sided out their removal. They also played a lot of lands that enter the battlefield tapped, like Vivid Creek. Ajani could come down, lock down a land and then Armageddon them a few turns later. Other decks used Ajani to mop up small creature swarms. I don't think the card is great at stopping monsters and it has a relatively pointless ultimate in Modern, so I don't think he'll see much competitive play from here on out - I'd consider this a casual staple, though.

Arcane Sanctum and associated tri-lands

$1.25

Wizards really pushed the envelope with these cards, making brilliant color-fixing lands and keeping them from being rare. This was huge for casual players, but these lands also dropped the prices on a lot of other rare lands, since these were mostly better. I rarely see them in bulk bins any more, but the foils are especially choice to find.

Blightning

$1.00

A solid and straightforward card, appealing to two things that casual players really like. These solidly go for a dollar, even to dealer buylists.

Death Baron

$8.00

This card has doubled in price over the last two months, thanks to Innistrad. It was entirely predictable, too. People love their Zombie decks and this is just about the best Zombie lord there is. You can make your tiny tokens trade with terrible towering titans, now that they have Deathtouch. I suppose he's also grand for your Skeleton tribal deck, since he pumps them up too! Keep your eye on these guys; they sell very readily to dealers, so if you are looking to make your collection more liquid for buylists, you can just trade dollar-for-dollar for these against less sellable cards.

Elspeth, Knight-Errant

$15.75

Elspeth has been on a roller coaster of a price run. She was elusive as a Hollywood starlet, then showed up in a cheap feature called Elspeth Vs. Tezzeret, which everyone ended up buying. She dropped from $40 to her current price and was even as low as $10 when the duel decks came out. Elspeth is still a very reliable Plainswalker. She makes her best impression of an unkillable 4/4 flier, given enough time, and she'll jump the unlikeliest creatures over to screw with your combat math. Although casual players angle more for her big sister (THREE tokens!), she's still a good Modern staple and commands the price to match.

Empyrial Archangel

$3.00

This monster of a woman usually shows up when people need a second Natural Order target to haul out against aggro hordes. It also shows up in Reanimator decks - most decks cannot work their way through her, even with burn spells. If the Archangel were Legendary, I'm sure she'd be worth double or triple what she is, simply because she'd be a great Commander general. As it is, she's still a fine throw-in to Bant Commander decks. Being an Angel makes her casual trade dynamite.

Etherium Sculptor

$1.50

This lowly uncommon has silently climbed to its current high price. Packs of these readily sell on Ebay, so there's a great market for them. This is my pick for the sleeper of the set. If you drafted Shards, you probably have four or five of these sitting around anyway.

Ethersworn Canonist

$3.50

A Cannonist is a person who presumably uses a cannon. A Canonist is, I would imagine, one who write canons - comprehensive tomes or musical movements. The Canonist sees a bit of play in Legacy and Vintage, since it is a storm hate card that can actually attack. It shuts down Cascade spells and combines in casually annoying Erayo decks. These are solid traders and I think you'll find a lot of attention on them in your trade binder.

Godsire

$2.25

This is a worthless bulk mythic, but it is an older Mythic; people want it for their sets. I suppose people also want it for their Commander decks. An 8/8 token is really cool, after all.

Hellkite Overlord

$4.00

This grand Dragon sees competitive play in Oath of Druids decks in Vintage. It also swings for a considerable surprise in the air. If it makes it to your untap phase, the game is probably over. Overlord actually got so popular in Oath decks in Vintage that people started siding in Karthuus, Tyrant of Jund from the sideboard to steal opposing monsters.

Knight of the White Orchid

$1.50

I'm not sure how often you get the Tithe out of this card - do you always play it so you can get the extra land? Is it worth playing if you can't score the Tithe? In any case, this is a white Knight, which means it slots into theme decks, and it is a reasonable accellerant on top of that.

Join me next week as we look through the second half of Shards!

Until then,

Doug Linn

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