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State of Modern: 2022 Edition

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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The end of the year is always a time for reflection, review, and rededication. It's why New Year's Resolutions are a thing. The world of Magic content creations is no different. So this year, as will now be a recurring tradition, I'll be reflecting on the state of Modern in 2022. Which has been... something.

The State of Modern Address

Assembled players of Modern, welcome. The State of Our Modern is... erm, complicated. There will always be those who dislike where the metagame is going. Magic players need something to complain about more than they need their next breath. Players being unhappy isn't a reason to condemn any metagame trend.

That said, the data shows that there are problems in the metagame, and they're not getting solved. This indicates an unhealthy Modern. However, there is other evidence that Modern in a good place and is quite healthy. Thus, I'm in a difficult position.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

Definitions to the Rescue

As with most researchers trapped in contradictory data, I'm utilizing definitions to extricate myself. Specifically, the definition I created for this exact purpose over a year ago. To paraphrase myself, since everyone agrees that unhealthy metagames are stagnant, noncompetitive, and lack diversity, healthy ones are dynamic, competitive, and diverse. To get more specific on the criteria:

  • Dynamic: The metagame evolves and changes over time. The same decks in the same configuration don't win all the time with new counterstrategies arising to defeat the existing decks and in turn be answered. In other words, Modern should play like Magic, and not chess.
  • Competitive: Many decks should be able to win. There will always be decks that are definitively better than others, but they shouldn't be so dominant that others cannot win. Tier 2-3 decks should Top 8 and win events at reasonable rates.
  • Diverse: There should be many different decks, cards, and strategies represented in the metagame. There's no hard number for how many decks should be in the metagame. However, a metagame with 20 distinct decks representing the whole archetype spectrum is very healthy while a metagame of 20 different Delver of Secrets decks is unhealthy.

One criterion that always gets thrown around is Fun. We're playing a game and it should be fun. The problem with that is that fun is relative. Some players actually enjoy Lantern Control, after all. This is certainly a good talking point, but it's not a valid way to evaluate metagame health.

Evaluating Modern's Health

I've already tipped my hand, but Modern's in a complicated place. There are aspects of this format which are the pinnacle of health. There are other aspects which are decidedly unhealthy. It's not a matter of it being healthy according to one criterion versus another; there's bits of each that point in different directions. Hence, the answer to Modern's health is complex.

Modern's Dynamism

In terms of metagame dynamism, Modern is doing very well on the micro-scale but not as well as I'd like on the macro-scale. On the micro-scale (which is decklist level) decks have changed significantly over 2022. In March, the Murktide lists were effectively standardized, whereas today they're anything but, reflecting a need to evolve and grow as the deck became established. The same is true for Hammer Time. Many other decks have evolved as new cards entered the format, most notably Crashing Footfalls moving from a Temur tempo deck to a four-color control deck thanks to Leyline Binding. Thus, decklist dynamism is high, indicating health.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crashing Footfalls

However, the maco-scale overall metagame is not so rosy. Comparing the metagame from the Lurrus of the Dream-Den ban to the Yorion, Sky Nomad ban shows that lots of decks rose and fell in position across online and paper play, which is quite dynamic. But throughout that period and continuing onto today, the metagame has been dominated by UR Murktide. Having one deck be better than every other is natural, however the degree to which that has been true this year is troubling and limits the ability of the overall metagame to grow and change. There's also the issue that the biggest changes have been ban driven rather than evolution driven. That's not inherently bad, but it's not great either.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Yorion, Sky Nomad

Therefore, Modern scores well in dynamism, but not as well as I'd prefer to see.

Modern's Competitiveness

This is the big stumbling block. As alluded to above and frequently mentioned in the metagame articles, Modern's top table have been far less competitive than in previous years. Both 2020 and 2021's metagame's had their own issues, but at least the top decks changed month to month and their metagame share was reasonably close. 2022 has been a year of outliers, particularly online. Online has a small playerbase and is more prone to follow-the-leader metagame moves, but the same thing was happening in paper. This Modern is very clearly dominated by Murktide and Hammer time and everything else is following in its wake. Rakdos Scam may be joining them, it's too early to tell.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grief

On an event-by-event basis, the picture is technically but I'd say not actually better. Any deck can win any event. However, it has to do so pushing through seas of Murktide and Hammer, with 4-Color Omnath variants or Scam piling on depending on the month. The no deck has consistently overperformed for more than a couple months according to my data, but the top few decks in every month are so overrepresented that it leaves very little room for anything else to compete. There's also the issue that many of the top deck today are the same as they were at the end of 2021.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Colossus Hammer

Modern is a format where almost any deck can win. However, the ability for any deck to win is severely hampered by a small number of decks. Whether that counts as highly competitive or non-competitive is ambiguous.

Modern's Diversity

If I count diversity as number of playable decks and archetypes, Modern is quite healthy. The average number of unique decks in my metagame data (both paper and online) is around 65, with an average of around 20 making it to the tier list. There are pure aggro, combo, and control decks represented, with numerous sub-archetypes as well. Aggro-combo is a little more represented than others thanks to Hammer Time and the Underworld Breach decks, but overall, the metagame is quite diverse.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

However, on a card level, things aren't great. True to our pre-Lurrus ban analysis of Modern pillars, there are more decks taking advantage of Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer than any other by a long shot, or between 27%-36% depending on source. In fact, the only nonland card that sees more play is Lightning Bolt. The next most popular build-around card is Urza's Saga at 22%-26% of decks. There's a lot of overlap between Ragavan and Saga decks, but the point is that Modern's deckbuilding choices are being squeezed by a small number of cards. That's not inherently bad, but it's not inherently good either.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urza's Saga

Thus, I must again say that Modern diversity is good but not great. How good depends on the perspective employed.

The Issue of Fun

However, all the objective measurements and definitions in the world won't mean anything if players aren't having fun. Of course, see my opening statement that fun is completely subjective, and therefore I can't really use it as a measure of format health. There's nonetheless an important fun-related issue to bring up.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lantern of Insight

In the course of writing these data articles I peruse a lot of Magic social media. It helps spark ideas for my own articles, but also fills in the blanks of many developments, trends, and deviations I see in the data. Numbers tell me what happened but not why. Only people know the why. In doing so, there's been heavy polarization surrounding opinions on Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

In any year or metagame, there are those that love it and those that hate it. Guaranteed; no exceptions. Most opinions will fall somewhere near the middle. I haven't seen that this year. There have been a large number of players extolling this Modern metagame. There have also been a large, but not quite as large, number condemning this metagame as the worst ever. What there hasn't been is many in the middle. This is a polarizing Modern which players either really love or hate. And it all comes down to whether or not they're ok with the precedent set by Modern Horizons.

Play It Again

If that sounds familiar, thank you! That means you read last year's State of Modern article. This is the same objection that players had last year, and it won't be going away. As I said then, and maintain now, Modern is the most interactive it's ever been. That's something that players have whined about forever, and it's finally been fixed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodbraid Elf

It just took free spells to accomplish, which isn't what many of the aggrieved wanted. They meant everyone utilizing the 2018 Jund-style interaction best suited for fair-leaning formats, not the Legacy-style free interaction that can actually keep down increasingly powerful linear strategies.

I'm Unmoved

I'm not very sympathetic to this objection. The lesson from Pioneer is that adding more removal to a format doesn't make it more interactive, nor push it towards midrange-on-midrange gameplay. Tempo is king there because even with increasing numbers of playable removal spells, something can still sneak through and win.

It takes a lot more effort to interact with mana than threats, and so in formats where players have to pay mana for everything, the threat decks have the advantage. The evoke elementals have shifted the playing field in interaction's favor, and that's a good thing. It wasn't going to happen any other way.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Solitude

I'm also unmoved by the "rotating format" complaints. Modern has always been a rotating format by the definition of decks losing viability as new cards are printed. All anyone has to do to see this is look at the year-to-year metagame data on MTGTop8.com. The average lifespan of a deck is two years. For example, Eldrazi rose in 2016, was a strong deck in 2017, and by 2018 was falling from the metagame. The only exceptions are Burn and Mono-Green Tron. If you don't want to update your deck, play either of those decks. The Horizons sets didn't make Modern into a rotating format. They just made its status as one more obvious.

Salving the Wound

There's no putting the genie back in the bottle or snapping Pandora's Box shut again. Modern has, and I'd argue needs, the free spells from the Horizons sets, and Wizards will make more Horizons sets regardless of the objections. However, they could be made more palatable. I agree with the critics that Modern's cost has increased a lot over the past few years. All the critical spells from Horizons are mythic rares. This sold the sets, but it now means that cost is rising due to limited supply.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury

I therefore advocate for another Modern Masters set with a focus on Horizons staples. Horizons isn't going to go away, and Wizards cannot be dissuaded from making more (I blame Hasbro), but it could be made cheaper and therefore more palatable.

Modern's Complicated

Modern is neither especially healthy nor unhealthy. The factors pointing in one direction vs another effectively offset and it becomes a matter of perspective how to evaluate them. From my perspective, Modern is on the healthier side of the spectrum, but there are problems in the metagame. It isn't exactly pressing to deal with the issues, but at some point there will need to be action taken unless there's a dramatic metagame shift. I'll be explaining how next week.

On Bundles and Fat Packs

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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I’ve been very overt lately about my newfound Magic finance strategy: sealed product. After moving on from a large portion of my Vintage and Old School collection, sealed product, such as booster boxes, was one asset type in Magic that still gave me that small bit of excitement when it arrived at my home. Holding a booster box of Visions, Magic’s newest expansion when I first started playing back in 1997, was a cherished moment of nostalgia I’m glad I could experience again in 2022.

Taking a step back, though, I realize that booster boxes aren’t the only sealed product investment vehicle worth tracking. A recent Card Kingdom sale on Aether Revolt bundles got me thinking about the fat pack (more recently, bundle) product. Could these be even better investments than booster boxes? What are the pros and cons of bundles?

Bundles and Fat Packs: A Brief History

The original fat pack (sometimes referred to as “phat pack” because the 1990s were awesome) was released as an alternate way to market Mercadian Masques product. The bundle itself included a starter deck, three booster packs, two premium cards, a player’s guide,  and my personal favorite, the Mercadian Masques novel.

That’s a whole lot of value for $24.99! Of course, if you want to purchase one of these original fat packs now, you’re looking at a much higher price point—more on that later.

Since their introduction, fat packs and bundles have gone through numerous iterations and evolutions over the years. Different variations have included other numbers of booster packs, novels, player’s guides, deck boxes, land packs, premium cards, spindown dice, and more. Each product is designed to give a player a nice immersive experience into a set without demanding the steep price point of an entire booster box.

In all honesty, fat packs and bundles are my favorite ways to enjoy the paper version of a new set because it strikes the perfect balance of product variety, number of booster packs, and price point. I have acquired a few different Magic novels over the course of the game’s history through these fat packs—I figured if I wanted to buy the book anyway, and those were $7.99 or something, then I’d get a significant discount on the booster packs as a result.

Interestingly, the novels have held their prices fairly well over the years, some even appreciating a little bit. I could do a whole separate article on Magic novels, however, so I’ll save that for another time.

Some Price Trends

Like booster boxes, fat packs and bundles tend to appreciate in price over time. I’ve seen various postings on the sealed product Facebook group where people showcase (or sell) their collection of fat packs and bundles.

They make for impressive display pieces. Of course, I would never crack open an old fat pack—the EV is going to be absolutely abysmal. These are strictly display and collector pieces now. Even if you wanted product to draft, you’d be better off purchasing a booster box or loose packs.

Why do I make this claim? Simply put, these old fat packs are worth more than the $24.95 their MSRP label advertises! Take a look at the asking prices for the FB sales post I pulled this image from. Keep in mind this post is a year old, so prices have likely climbed since then.

Talk about expensive! Hopefully, by now you see my point about the purpose of these sealed products. Quickly glancing at the numbers, it appears these fat packs are worth about 1/3 the cost of the corresponding set’s booster box prices. I’m not sure why that ratio is where things settled, but that’s a reasonable rule of thumb.

The exception would be Zendikar fat packs, which retail for close to $1000. I guessed it was because of the sealed pack of full-art basic lands that are included. A friend on Facebook messaged me, however, and reminded me that OG Zendikar fat packs included booster packs from the set's first print run. This means they qualify for the hidden treasures program that Wizards of the Coast implemented in this set. I suppose a chance at opening a Black Lotus is enough reason for the higher price point!

A New Investment Idea?

The numbers are quite compelling for older fat packs—clearly purchasing these at $24.95 (MSRP) 20 years ago would have yielded a hefty profit. Can we rely on this trend to continue going forward, however?

To answer this, I’m going to look at some of the more recent, less expensive fat packs and bundles to see what pricing trends look like. To start, I browsed Card Kingdom’s inventory of the cheapest fat packs—note that fat packs converted into bundles starting with Kaladesh, so by searching Card Kingdom for “fat pack” I’m essentially browsing all products that were released prior to Kaladesh.

What do you think the cheapest ones are? If you guessed Magic Origins, Born of the Gods and Dragon’s Maze, you’d be right! These still retail for just $39.99, not much above MSRP.

Is this proof that these are now horrible investments? Definitely not! It’s no secret that these three sets are some of the worst in Magic’s history, at least from an EV and investment standpoint. You can still get booster boxes of these sets for under $150, even after many years since their release. These products were disappointments by my account, so it’s no surprise there’s little demand for their corresponding sealed products.

To get a better snapshot of what returns look like on newer fat packs, we need to change our Card Kingdom search to “bundle” to browse those released since Kaladesh.

Are there still inexpensive bundles? Of course—all the more recent bundles from 2021-2022 are relatively cheap. However, there are some that are just a couple of years old that have doubled in price since their initial release.

Take Ikoria, for example. Booster boxes of this set can still be found for around $115, yet the TCGplayer market price for an Ikoria bundle is over $70! You don’t even get one-third of a booster box worth of packs in a bundle, yet they cost over half the price of a booster box. Rivals of Ixalan bundles are at a similar price point, around $75. Booster boxes of the set are about double that, nearly $150.

The same trend is found for sets like Throne of Eldraine, Kaldheim, and Guilds of Ravnica. It seems that bundle prices for sets that were released just a couple of years prior tend to appreciate fairly consistently, especially if you consider bundles from Standard-legal sets can often be found at a discount on TCGplayer—Streets of New Capenna bundles can be had for as low as $25! That can make for a particularly attractive entry point.

Before You Dive In…

Is this it? The perfect Magic investment?

Whoa, hold your horses! There are some important drawbacks to investing in bundles that I need to touch on before letting you decide for yourself if there should be a collection of bundles and fat packs in your Magic collection.

First and foremost, there’s the timeline and opportunity cost. Investing in sealed product is akin to investing in savings bonds. They’re not likely to lose much value in the long run (though it’s not impossible), but they also don’t offer the flashiest of returns. Seeing a Mercadian Masques fat pack appreciate from $25 to $500 in 23 years appears exciting, but I don’t foresee a similar return for a bundle purchased today. There’s too much premium in the originality and lower print run of the older sets to expect comparable returns in 2022 and beyond.

You very well may end up buying 10 Streets of New Capenna bundles for $25 each, only to sell them for $50 each 5 years from now—hardly an impressive return, especially when you take into consideration shipping and handling costs. These bundles aren’t the most economical to send around the country after all, and a $15 priority mail shipping bill can really eat into profit margins.

To make it worthwhile, you really need to see your bundle appreciate at least $40 or so in price. For example, if you had purchased a Throne of Eldraine bundle for $30 a few years ago and could now sell for $70, I’d say that’s worth it. Even after shipping and some fees, you’d probably net a solid $20 profit—multiply that by ten, and you have an endeavor worth thinking about.

What if you end up accidentally buying a bunch of bundles from a set like Dragon’s Maze, and there’s virtually no appreciation over a few years? I guess you need to cut your losses, or else crack them open for some nostalgia on a rainy day. There is a risk that this may happen, but if your entry point is low enough then at least you won’t feel so awful if you have to go this route.

At least you have a beautiful display piece (assuming you have room on your shelves) in the meantime. Bundles look great lined up on a shelf, and also make for great gifts in a pinch (image from another collector on Facebook).

Even if you don’t break the bank investing in these, it’s hard to come up with a 100% losing scenario when buying a bunch to sit on. Just don’t waste your time with Dragon’s Maze.

Wrapping It Up

If I’m in the market for a few booster packs of the latest set, I still consider bundles as a fun option. It’s a nice combination of booster packs, a quality box, a spindown die, and other goodies to justify the price point.

When it comes to investments, however, bundles demand a good bit more research and scrutiny. While historical “phat packs” have performed very well financially, that doesn’t guarantee modern-day bundles to offer the same stellar returns. That said, some more recent releases seem to have already doubled in value after just a few years. Clearly, there is something to this strategy that merits consideration.

It may just boil down to picking the right sets to purchase and finding the right entry point. This can be tricky since we don’t always know what sets will do well a couple of years after their release. My best advice here would be to diversify. If you want to pursue bundles as an investment strategy going forward, then make sure you time your purchases well to take advantage of markdowns and discounts. Often times a set’s bundles will be discounted 6-12 months after its release. Streets of New Capenna bundles are especially cheap right now.

Lastly, a word of advice would be to try and purchase a few at a time to save on shipping. When Card Kingdom marked Aether Revolt bundles down to $29.99 a couple of weeks ago, I knew I wanted to take advantage—these sell for nearly $50 on TCGplayer. However, buying just one would not be worthwhile because I’d be paying north of $40 after shipping. To bring my cost basis down, I purchased four. In hindsight, I probably should have gotten even more, but I didn’t want to go too deep on a single set out of fear I picked a stinker like Dragon’s Maze. It’s about balancing that risk and reward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Voice of Resurgence

Perhaps that’s a good reason to consider bundles as a component of one’s Magic investment strategy. Simply put, it adds some diversification to your portfolio with low risk and a modest reward. You won’t make a fortune on these, I suspect, but there are definitely worse places to park some money for a few years—especially if you have some shelf space to spare!

To Catch a Falling Knife

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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All types of assets, not just Magic cards, are struggling to gain traction across the board. I’m observing this trend in the stock market and the collectible video game market—I have to assume the same goes for other collectible markets as well. As a Magic finance writer, of course, my primary focus is on the price of cards.

People aren’t willing to pay for such luxury goods given inflation, overall market uncertainty, and an array of other factors. This has led to some noteworthy weaknesses across the board. I'm suddenly reminded of the old Warren Buffett adage, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”

The big question becomes, how do we know we’ve hit bottom? What if we buy at these discounted prices, only to see prices decrease even further? The classic “falling knife” conundrum comes into play.

The Falling Knife

For those unfamiliar with the expression, attempting to catch a falling knife is a term used commonly in the investing world to describe the practice of purchasing an asset that is rapidly decreasing in value. Often times these declining entities (such as stocks) can become attractive because their valuation had suddenly become much cheaper.

Like the literal interpretation of the expression, however, the proverbial “catching a falling knife” can also have devastating effects. You don’t risk physical harm, but you certainly risk harm to your net worth!

I tried Googling where the expression originated from (in the context of investing…surely, the first use of the phrase referred to food preparation in the kitchen for the literal interpretation). I found one citation in Reddit that dated back to 1919 in Harry Johnston’s The Gay-Dombeys: A Novel:

“I’m only infectious now as a political and social delinquent, and if you’ve much regard for your own welfare you oughtn’t to mix yourself up with my affairs…What’s the saying? ‘Never catch a falling knife or save a falling friend!”

The Gay-Dombeys: A Novel

Back to Magic

On the stock market, prices can move very rapidly, dropping significant percent in a given month, week, or even day. Take a look at once-darling Upstart Holdings Inc, a stock that went from near-$400 to $15 in just over a year.

It was easy to think that after dropping over 50% from $380 to well below $200, this stock was suddenly attractively valued. The falling knife would have cut you badly if you had bought it, as the stock still had yet another 80+% to drop from there!

Magic cards don’t typically move this drastically or this quickly. The exception is when an old/rare card is reprinted in a Standard set. Instead, the price chart of many collectible Magic cards looks more akin to a gradual, steady decline over a similar time period as Upstart Holding’s collapse.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

Check out the price chart above for Underground Sea, once the most desirable Dual Land of the cycle (since replaced by Volcanic Island). The best buy price on this card peaked at around $730 less than two years ago. Today that number is just $471. A 35% decline pales in comparison to a stock like Upstart, but this was supposed to be a blue chip card! It would be more apt to compare Underground Sea to a blue chip stock like Apple.

The fluctuations in Apple’s stock are larger than that of Underground Sea, but the net decline over the past year is more comparable.

If you want to see something more Upstart-like in Magic, you’ll have to turn towards an old Reserved List card with far less playability. Let’s check out the graph of Pixie Queen for comparison.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pixie Queen

This is one of my favorite Legends cards—it’s neat to see a green flying faerie as I can’t imagine there are many (my search yields 12, not counting multicolored creatures). The classic Quinton Hoover artwork is also one of my all-time favorites. Perhaps others agreed at one point, and that’s why this card’s price soared to over $150 with a peak buylist of $120.

In any event, today the best buylist for Pixie Queen is a meager $38, a whopping 68% from its peak! Talk about a falling knife!

Other cards I’ve found with comparable price declines include some less-than-desirable Beta rares, Golgothian Sylex from Antiquities, and Singing Tree from Arabian Nights.

Is It Time to Play Catch?

If last year’s prices felt far too high, and you were priced out of some of these iconic, historical cards in Magic, you may start to get tempted by these pullbacks. Of course, the question becomes, “Is it time to catch the falling knife in Magic?”

I don’t have a crystal ball. I could make a bold statement and say “YES, now is the time to lock in lower prices and buy!” but I’d have no basis for such a claim outside of an arbitrary guess. I’m not going to try and apply technical analysis to the price charts of these Magic cards like people do for stocks, and pretend they have validity.

Rather than try to force some sort of hot take, I’ll follow a more pragmatic approach. If you want my advice (remember, I’m not a financial adviser and you should consult with a professional before making any investment decisions… the usual disclaimer), I’d say there may be an opportunity here to begin cost averaging into cards.

In other words, it may be a good time to start buying a little bit if you do so gradually and strategically. If you have $1000 you want to put into Magic, don’t spend it all at once today. Maybe buy a couple of well-priced cards next time TCGplayer does a promotion, then bid on a couple more on eBay, and see what happens.

Some Ideas to Consider

ABUGames has a ton of played Old School cards at auction that keep dropping in price as they fail to sell. I’ve been watching these for months now, and I’m amazed by a) how cheap these cards are becoming prior to selling and b) how many Beta rares ABUGames has listed for sale at any given time. My current count is 444! I remember during the peak of valuations, ABUGames would not have more than just a couple for sale at a given time. Remember, these are their auctions only—they have more cards listed for sale with buy it now!

In case you’re wondering, I am putting my money where my mouth is. See that one bid on the Beta Web above? That’s me. I’ll buy pretty much any non-damaged Beta rare for under $50.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Web

It’s the first Beta card I’ve attempted to purchase since selling most of my collection in Las Vegas. Additionally, the last time I received a little Card Kingdom store credit, I actually used it to pick up some Old School cards rather than sealed product.

You can see above that this wasn’t a gigantic purchase. Little by little, that’s the name of the game here. When attempting to catch a falling knife, you must proceed with extreme caution.

 Why did I pick up these cards in particular? It’s a combination of factors, but there are three major ones to consider:

  1. Their price relative to TCGlow – ideally the gap between the two is minimal so I know I’m not overpaying relative to the open market. This also means that if I decide to flip the cards I just acquired, I can get as close to cash value as possible for my credit. In reality, as long as I can get at least 85% cash conversion from my store credit, I’ll be achieving a market rate.
  2. My personal interest in the cards. There are hundreds of Old School cards I could choose from. My general strategy right now is to leverage ABUGames auctions to acquire any Beta cards I’m interested in and then use Card Kingdom’s store credit to acquire cards from the Four Horsemen sets. Singing Tree has always been a favorite card of mine, but the last one I had I sold (for more than $118.99 I’m sure). Felt like a good chance to get a copy back again. Haunting Wind surprised me because its price has been quite resilient in this economy.
  3. Consider how much you want to spend before making a purchase. In the case above, Spiritual Sanctuary was admittedly a throw-in—I love the artwork, but I only had a little more store credit left so I found something to close that gap.

By sticking to these principles, I hope to cautiously and deliberately scale back into Magic little by little.

Wrapping It Up

By pursuing the strategy I detailed above, I am not guaranteeing myself anything. It is certainly possible prices tumble even further, and I get cut by the proverbial falling knife. By taking this gradually, though, I hope to minimize the damage while also taking advantage of the recent sell-off. I think prices will eventually bottom, so it stands to reason that picking up a few cards here or there could eventually yield profits.

In the meantime, we need to exercise extreme patience. When prices bottom and things turn around, it won’t happen overnight. We won’t wake up to a 20% gain in our Magic portfolios. There will be ample time to scale in and acquire cards at these attractive prices. Because of this, I urge you to resist the FOMO and avoid any impulse purchases. Since there is so much time to react, we can afford to wait, be picky, and choose our entry points with extreme care.

This is precisely what I’m doing and what I hope to continue as the New Year comes in. Mind you, I don’t plan on going very deep in Magic like I once was. However, when I see an opportunity present itself, I can’t ignore it! With any luck, I’ll have another modest collection to sell at a future Magic event a few years from now.

Deep in These Streets: Diving Into Tri Lands

Posted on by David Schumann

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My "cards to buy" list is pretty small nowadays, mainly focused on cards to flip in the near future. The top 5 on that list are the Streets of New Capenna tri lands: Jetmir's Garden, Raffine's Tower, Ziatora's Proving Ground, Spara's Headquarters, and Xander's Lounge.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spara's Headquarters

These lands complete the three-color, fetchable Triome cycle that was originally released in Ikoria. Today, we'll explore what makes them such great pickups.

A Little History

Ikoria: Lair of Behemoths was released May 15th 2020, which was after most of the world had closed down due to COVID-19. The tri lands were some of the few cards I was really looking forward to in the set. Despite their always coming into play tapped, the ability to fetch a three-color land in Commander seemed like a game changer. This land cycle gave color-heavy decks a reliable mana fixer for turn 1, and I could easily see four-or-more-color decks fetching triomes in their first two turns to ensure perfect mana by turn 3.

Due to the timing of the Ikoria release, it is definitely possible that the prices for the singles were artificially deflated. There were no in-person events at the time, and thus a lot of potential demand was non-existent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zagoth Triome

I was not sure how desirable they would end up in other formats, as "enters tapped" is a huge downside to have on lands, and playing off-curve in many formats is a good way to lose a lot of games. 

The Ikoria Triomes had five versions available: prerelease, regular, foil, showcase, and foil showcase. As many are aware, the recent foiling has been somewhat of an issue, so I opted to go all-in on the showcase variants, as the full art made them easier to find when searching ones deck. I bought 7-10 of each at prices between $5 and $7.50. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Savai Triome

It is important to point out that Wizards of the Coast was still "dabbling" in Secret Lairs, and my concerns of a reprint were still relatively low. This is relevant because the massive influx of Lairs adds significant risk for any longer-term holds.

Looking at the price history of the Triomes, we can learn a few important things:

  • Early on, all the Triomes were roughly the same price, hovering between $5-$7.
  • Currently, the most valuable ones are the UGx ones, Ketria Triome and Zagoth Triome. This isn't surprising given that these are the most powerful colors in Commander.
  • The third-most valuable Triome is actually Savai Triome, which was the cheapest upon release.
  • The showcase variants for most of these Triomes have a TCGPlayer Market price very close to the regular version.
  • Indatha Triome is the only Triome whose showcase variant has a lower TCGPlayer Market price than its regular variant.

Analyzing Triome Prices

When I look at analyzing the potential of a Triome's future value, I tend to look at what original dual lands it would be paired with and compare their values (TCGPlayer Market values shown).

  • (UB) Underground Sea - $753
  • (UR) Volcanic Island -$748
  • (UG) Tropical Island -$543
  • (UW) Tundra -$484
  • (BG) Bayou -$441
  • (BR) Badlands - $383
  • (GW) Savannah - $356
  • (GR) Taiga -$370
  • (BW) Scrubland -$333
  • (RW) Plateau - $329

Using this list, I would then add up the "duals" covered by the Triome and use that total to give me insight into which ones to target.

  • (BUG) Zagoth Triome - Underground Sea $753 + Tropical Island $543 + Bayou $441 = $1737
  • (RUG) Ketria Triome - Volcanic Island $748 + Tropical Island $543 + Taiga $370 = $1661
  • (RBW) Savai Triome - Scrubland $333 + Plateau $329 + Badlands $383 = $1045
  • (BGW) Indatha Triome - Bayou $441 + Scrubland $333 + Savannah $356 = $1130
  • (WUR) Raugrin Triome - Tundra $484 + Volcanic Island $748 +Plateau $329 = $1561

Thus, I focused on acquiring Ketria Triome and Zagoth Triome first, and in larger numbers.

Enter the Streets Tri Lands

Now we get to the main purpose of this article. While I had previously targeted the showcase variant for the Ikoria Triomes, the Streets of New Capenna showcase variants are not borderless, and I personally dislike the artwork on most of them. There are borderless variants that do have decent artwork on them, but their price point is currently $10+ per copy. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Xander's Lounge

We can recycle the same logic to evaluate dual land values with the Streets of New Capenna tri lands.

  • (UBR) - Xander's Lounge - Underground Sea $753 + Volcanic Island $748 + Badlands $383 = $1884
  • (UBW) - Raffine's Tower - Underground Sea $753 + Tundra $484 + Scrubland $333 = $1570
  • (UGW) - Spara's Headquarters - Tropical Island $543 + Tundra $484 + Savannah $356= $1383
  • (RGW) - Jetmir's Garden - Taiga $370 + Plateau $329 + Savannah $356 = $1055
  • (BGR) - Ziatora's Proving Ground - Bayou $441 + Badlands - $383 + Taiga $370 = $1194

Tri Land Takeaways

Given that the borderless variants are already at a price point close to the Ikoria showcase variants, I feel there is likely not a lot of room for growth, and certainly not enough to justify investing in them. The only Streets of New Capenna tri land that has both blue and green mana in it is Spara's Headquarters, which also happens to be the cheapest one as of me writing this article. I do think it wise to emphasize that white is by far the weakest color in Commander, so this pairing is likely still less desirable than either Ketria Triome or Zagoth Triome.

Multiple copies of all of the Streets of New Capenna tri lands can still be acquired in the $5-7 range, so I think there is still potential for growth. Interestingly there is a decent price discrepancy between the cheapest borderless variants, with Jetmir's Garden's TCGPlayer Market price being only $12.71 compared to Raffine's Tower's TCGPlayer Market price being $21.11.

While it doesn't include green, Xander's Lounge is one I would like to pick more copies up of. The Grixis shard is definitely a very powerful one, so its tri land is likely one to make sure you get sooner rather than later. It also has the highest "dual land equivalency" of any tri land and is currently one of the cheaper ones to buy.

Third Color's the Charm

Have you been looking into picking up the tri lands? What systems might you use to compare the value of each one? I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments. Until then, may you fetch with confidence!

Rust Goliath Reanimator and the Evolution of BRO Draft

Posted on by Robert Genuario

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So there I was, struggling to read the table as I clumsily navigated a draft.

Green was open. That much was clear. I collected a number of powerful cards, but lacked a real plan. Citanul Stalwart never showed up, and my options to splash for various win conditions vanished one pick at a time. Next, black looked like an option, then a few red signals came my way, then the deluge of gold cards in distant combinations pointed to all the great possibilities that would not be. I felt like Sylvia Plath, staring at her splattered figs.

The pool had some okay cards, but without a clear plan, the deck was destined to be a mediocre mess. I tinkered with various versions of the deck, looking to leverage my high powered cards as best as I could. There was a diverse collection of tools, but it wasn't particularly aggressive and didn't really have the top end to win at the late stage of the game. For the sake of science, I tested the generally weak No One Left Behind, and if I was going to play a Zombify effect, I wanted something worth the effort.

It had to be done.

Rust Goliath Reanimator (7-1)

Creatures

1 Sarinth Steelseeker
1 Scrapwork Mutt
2 Blanchwood Prowler
1 Argothian Opportunist
1 Simian Simulacrum
1 Ravenous Gigamole
1 Skyfisher Spider
1 Mishra's Juggernaut
1 Boulderbranch Golem
1 Combat Thresher
1 Rust Goliath

Sorcery

3 Epic Confrontation
1 Obliterating Bolt
1 Gix's Caress
1 Emergency Weld
1 No One Left Behind
1 Shoot Down

Instant

1 Gaea's Gift

Artifacts

1 Mishra's Bauble
1 Energy Refractor

Enchantments

1 Audacity

Land

2 Evolving Wilds
5 Swamp
1 Mountain
8 Forest

Early-Game and Enablers

The developing stages of the game involve generating value from cheap creatures and surviving with cheap interaction. Blanchwood Prowler is the perfect two-drop here. It finds lands, can tussle with the format's many x/1s, and is a body for Epic Confrontation or Powerstone Fracture. Scrapwork Mutt overperforms here as well. While it's nice to get some damage in, our goal is mostly to survive, and trading off serves us well.

Prowler is a perfect partner for unearth creatures. It encourages splashing, as it digs for lands. The unearth cards are eager splashes, as the front side can come down without a single colored mana. While splashing is never truly free, this certainly lessens the risk. This is a strong incentive to be green in any number of shells. Evolving Wilds, Energy Refractor, and Citanul Stalwart all facilitate this game plan nicely.

Green's inherent ability to splash makes it a reasonable home for drafts that have gone off the rails. While we'd prefer to be in something more synergistic, Citanul Stalwart lets you bend those rules of engagement. However, as previously mentioned, we didn't have access to the flexibility the one-drop provides. We would have to work for our wins.

Incidental Value and the Mid-Game

Building up a bank of unearth creatures puts a level of pressure on opponents that can easily be overlooked. If we generate a critical mass, our opponents will eventually look at those creatures as raw damage. As a result, opponents will need to deal with our boardstate more aggressively. Argothian Opportunist and Boulderbranch Golem all perform this role perfectly. They battle just fine, they provide value, and sometimes they'll even eat a removal spell.

At its heart, this deck was a classic GB Value deck. Because of this, trading resources should be a winning strategy in most matchups. Besides, once the dust settles, our 10/10 trampler is going to be bigger than whatever our opponents our doing.

The Problems

Removal is very good in this format and there is a decent amount of it. While our prototype threats duck a lot of the small removal, they die to the various Disenchants in the format. If we're going to do the work required to reanimate an expensive creature, we want to make sure it sticks around.

As we develop, we want to be making trades and pressuring removal. However, sometimes it can help to have proactive approaches. This is especially true because very often we will die on the spot to a Sibling Rivalry.

Gix's Caress and Gaea's Gift protect out gameplan. With these two cards, a resolved Rust Goliath will often go uncontested.

So, Is It Real?

Well, no. Not even close, really.

While we went 7-1 with this pile, the deck lacks reliability. Cards like Emergency Weld or even Loran, Disciple of History can help us get back our creatures, but the only piece we need to have in hand is a sorcery. Besides Arcane Proxy, a mythic rare, the format has zero ways to rebuy an instant or sorcery. While GB Value decks might want to use a Reanimate spell to get back any number of powerful options, this shouldn't be the primary plan.

However, GB Value decks are a great place to be positioned at this stage in the format. A value-based gameplan tied to reanimating threats, gumming up the ground, and relying on some flexible removal spells can make for a reasonable strategy. Weeks back we had little interest in green, but now that the format is maturing, the color has new life.

It's So Easy Being Green

Aggressive decks dominated the first weeks of the format. While red is still the best color and the aggressive decks are still strong, the format evolved due to the self-correcting nature of draft. When a color overperforms, it subsequently becomes overdrafted. This has become true of the most effective decks, especially the very synergistic ones. Fixing goes earlier than it originally did, and many of the glue pieces that overlap in multiple synergies are being targeted with earlier picks. Usually I like to talk about how a format evolves, but this one might actually be devolving.

This Benefits Green More Than Any Other Color

Green has a ton of solid pieces at common, but as far as a true identity goes, it's the most flexible. Many of the green commons are just good-rate creatures that can hold the fort or go on the aggressive. They can play a value game, or back up attacks with a grip full of combat tricks. Green's flexibility and high card quality makes it the perfect tool for the late stages of a format, with or without Citanul Stalwart.

So while the reanimator strategy is probably nothing more than "just fun," green has felt like a safe haven over the last few weeks. Everyone wants to be in red, but green is more of a local secret. Because its best commons fit in so many archetypes, it makes for a good color to settle into in difficult pack ones.

Shine a Little Light

If we're going to spend this much time talking about green, we should focus on its most overlooked piece of interaction.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shoot Down

The first copy of this removal spell is pretty solid in most green decks. It feels like it kills everything (it doesn't). The exile clause is good and between its three legal targets it can get us out of a lot of situations. There is however a huge caveat, and that is the cost. While four mana is a lot, and sorcery speed is an issue, we can build our deck to minimize those problems. However, if we have some one-, two-, and three-drops, Shoot can be a nice addition to our deck. It's not a bomb, but we can feel safe including the first copy almost all the time.

Have you been loving green as much as I? Let me know in the comments.

Duel Commander—and Duel Decks—Are a Good Idea

Posted on by Joe Mauri

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While Commander is at heart a multiplayer format, sometimes you only have the time, energy, or players for a 1v1. This specific format is called Duel Commander, or "French Commander," and has format-specific rules that are balanced for competitive decks and players. Certainly you do not need to use Duel Commander rules for a casual 1v1; the normal Commander rules are fine.

Of course, Wizards of the Coast did make several 60-card thematic Duel deck (and reprinted them), but has not made them specifically for Commander. So today we'll explore crafting Commander decks in pairs to provide a fun, interactive Duel deck experience.

But First, a Brief History Lesson

I was not very interested in the previous Duel decks, but Knights Vs. Dragons caught my eye, mostly for picking up a cheap Knight of the Reliquary and Bogardan Hellkite which, at the time, were worth more than the deck. Does this sales tactic sound familiar? In any case, my girlfriend was interested in learning Magic, so I bought the deck and we played... and it was a disaster.

First, she tried playing Dragons. I played some cheap Knights, got double-strike and killed her in short order. She would summon a Dragon and I immediately removed it. It was a frustrating experience and I could see that, yes, the Knights did come out quick and seemed like they had every advantage. Then we swapped decks.

Turns Out, Dragons Could Win

The Dragon deck did have plenty of game against the Knights, so long as you drew it that is. However, with just a little bit of knowledge, I realized that keeping a hand without an early ramp or removal effect was a complete non-starter. The deck did better on the draw than the play and was happy to take mulligans. Eventually we learned both decks and it became a very fair, fun, and, interactive experience. My most efficient $20 for entertainment in 2011, bar none.

If this worked for constructed, well, why not Commander? It does work, and, it works well! I've built Commander Duel deck not only for myself, but also for several friends and to sell. Feedback has been strong and I'd like to share some tips on how I make decks like these work.

Tick, Tock, Play, Counter-Play

Consider a GW deck with a +1/+1 counters theme. Cathars' Crusade is a no-brainer include for that kind of deck. Given we have Crusade, Herd Baloth is a strong consideration. A ten-mana, two-card, infinite combo that does not end the game on the spot might be appropriate. Board wipes or instant speed removal could be valid answers. So long as you're creating a situation the paired deck has the tools to solve, it's fair for that pairing.

The more ramp and tutor effects, the more this combo could happen early. If you do add tutors or ramp, the other deck needs to have tools to make sure it isn't just dead in the water quickly. So long as either deck has access to potentially the right spells at the right time, you will see the game shift back and forth, which is what you want!

Alternatively, you could add a ten-mana, two-card, infinite combo to the second deck, so that each has the same possibility. In either case you are defining the decks relative to each other.

No Really, All the Interaction

When building your "duel pool," make sure you emphasize "interaction" and not "completely one-sided shutdowns." For example, Nevermore is a great card against combo decks that seek to recast their low-cost commander, and also punishes high cost commanders. It's alright if the other deck folds to Nevermore, as you won't get that card every game and have some method of countering it. However, reliably getting your answer to shut out the other commander is unlikely to lead to balanced, fun games! In this case, if one answer is so strong, there needs to be many answers to that card in the other deck.

Then there's hyper-efficient, matchup-dependent bullets. According to EDREC's top commanders, precious few commanders have zero power. However, against both Rograkh, Son of Rohgahh and Doran, The Siege Tower, consider Twisted Image. It kills the commander and draws a card for one mana! Can Swords to Plowshares do that? Talk about unbelievable uncommon efficiency! In a custom Duel deck, you can really show off silver bullets like Twisted Image. Is one deck slower and needs a cheap wipe? Think about Fiery Cannonade. You can carefully select exactly how effective it is by modulating how many Pirates or Changelings are in each deck. Judge threat versus answer, and make sure each deck is roughly equal in both.

A Practical Example: Birdy Vs. Monkey

For the holidays, I'm building my friend Chris a Commander deck. I'm going to build it with a Duel deck mindset. Of course, simultaneously, I am building the deck that I will play against it. Chris loves all things Ape and Monkey, and luckily, they have just made a great new commander in Kibo, Uktabi Prince! There are a large amount of tribal cards, art-inspired includes, iconic cards from throughout Magic's history, and highly thematic cards that all easily fit together. On top of that, there's a pretty easy sub-theme that my deck will play into: artifact destruction.

Artifacts Go Boom

Because I know there are so many artifact answers in Kibo, I am going to heavily lean on them as part of my deck's plan. What do I get to play? Well, Chris has a thick southern accent, so somewhere along the way my nickname "Beardy" started to sound like "Birdy." Checking EDREC tribes there is a huge disparity in numbers; Birds have 1767 decks to browse while Apes have only 413. There are a lot more Bird cards than Ape cards, and this is key to Duel deck design. Since Kibo, Uktabi Prince has fewer options, I have to build Birds to Kibo's level and not the other way around. The wider card pool of Birds will help me modulate its power level appropriateley.

In this specific case I'm going to give myself a small restriction to make sure I "play fair." The total dollar value of my Birds must be lower than Kibo's. The fact is, I have way more options, and some highly thematic cards like Swan Song or Wing Shards may simply be a little too good here.

Some Big, Bad "Birbs"

All these Birds are over-costed and not particularly powerful, even in ideal circumstances. However, Sanctuary Raptor has synergy with Kibo's giving me Banana tokens! That's a novel interaction, so we definitely keep that in. These make for the most memorable situations.

Since I'm going all-in on the artifact plan, I get to run thematic and good cards like Jhoira's Familiar and Artificer's Assistant which won't make the deck overpowered, but more functional. His plan? Make big Apes and throw [card]Banana[/cards]s at me. My plan? Fly over his head and peck for one damage per Bird. Terrible win cons that will lead to extended board states and lots of interaction. And then the bombs drop!

The Fun Stuff

There are more than a handful Un-cards that can go into each deck. Overall they aren't so zany or off-the-wall that they clash with either deck, and I want Kibo to have as many Apes as possible, so this is one way to accomplish that. Chicken a la King has errata; "Chicken" is now "Bird," so this card is super powerful in a Bird deck! However, take a look at Uktabi Kong. He blows up all artifacts and then makes an army of Apes every turn until the game ends. Both of these cards are super-bombs, and each deck has exactly one. Plus: "King/Kong." That, my friends, is no coincidence.

If you haven't tried Duel Commander or just casual 1v1 Commander, give it a shot! If you find it interesting at all, just think of how much better it will be with two carefully crafted decks that are extremely well balanced. This holiday season we settle the age-old debate: when it's Bird versus Monkey, who wins? Let me know in the comments.

Mana Defines Formats: Pioneer’s Identity Problem

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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As the year draws to a close, Magic tends to take a breather, recalibrate, and look ahead to the coming year. The past few years have been anything but typical, but 2022 seems to be especially scandal-prone. The latest Hasbro drama is roiling up the community alongside, but there's been rules drama as well over the weekend. Meanwhile, there is turmoil in Legacy. Turmoil that has brought some clarity to a problem I've wrestled with this entire year.

Step Up, Legacy

For the (presumptive) majority of players unconnected to the Legacy scene, there's been a bit of a flap over new cards in the format. This has been going on for a while, to be frank, but the latest bit of angst is over the initiative mechanic that debuted in... in... (discreetly opens Scryfall...) Commander Legends: Battle for Baldur's Gate (Impossible to keep track of these things anymore). The problem seems to be that the mechanic provides too much value too quickly and is ruining the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Seasoned Dungeoneer

I'm not sure the former is actually true in a format where Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath is still legal, but the latter just makes me laugh. Too fast in Legacy? The format of fast mana? The only reason there aren't more turn one kills is social convention and fear of Force of Will. All the rituals are legal, and all but the most broken artifact mana as well. More fast mana can be played in a Legacy deck than even Vintage. Saying something is too fast in such a format is the height of irony.

History Lesson

Stompy decks have been a staple of Legacy decks since the format's inception. This permanent-based midrange archetype is defined by using fast mana and Sol lands (Ancient Tomb and City of Traitors) to power out lock pieces and/or huge threats on turns 1-2 and ride them to victory. For a lot of recent Legacy, Stompy has been limited to Red Stompy, which is fringe at best. The initiative decks are white, and seeing far more play and success than the red decks ever did. This is upsetting players.

There was an error retrieving a chart for City of Traitors

The funny part is that this isn't really new, and in fact signals a return to Legacy's roots. I started playing competitive Magic when Legacy was still called Type 1.5, and was terrible. The only difference between Type 1.5 and Type 1 (now called Vintage) was that if it was restricted in Type 1, it was banned in 1.5. There were only three decks at the (very limited) Type 1.5 events: the fair blue deck (called Fish, but not Merfolk), the unfair blue deck (High Tide), and Stax (artifact prison named for Smokestack). Even after Wizards changed the names and provided more separation, this division persisted for years, though the nature changed.

The Turning Point

I vividly remember the transition from old to new. In 2002, Onslaught introduced the fetchlands, heralding the fetch-centric manabases that remain a gold standard. However, it was not an instantaneous transition. The store I learned to play in was packed with players from the early days, and many were adamant that these new fetchlands changed nothing about their beloved Type 1. They were having a tournament a few weekends after release, and the owner made a bet that any random kid with a Brainstorm deck with fetchlands could win the tournament.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

Guess who the random kid he selected was? For the only time in my life, I played unproxied paper Vintage with the full Power 9. In normal sleeves, shuffling like the barely-teen I was. Someone else handed a fully Powered UR Fish deck to child me and even covered my entry fee, just to prove a point. I reduced the current market value of someone else's most expensive cards in Magic on purpose. What have you ever done? It was his spare fully Powered deck too (what a time to be alive). I didn't outright win said tournament, but I did Top 8, so the store owner won his bet.

Consequences

While both Standard and Extended had fetchlands for a time, Legacy was their forever home. In Vintage, you either played basic Island or Mishra's Workshop, and those were the formats. Even in Legacy, players were far more cautious about their manabases than today. It wasn't until Delver of Secrets was printed in 2011 that the kind of Legacy manabase most think of today was born, and even that didn't become commonplace until about 2014.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodstained Mire

It took time for Legacy players to explore the limits of what they could do. Even Modern in the early days was very conservative mana-wise. Three-color decks posed huge risks in Standard, so everyone had color discipline ingrained into their souls. Just how much fetching for dual lands reduced that risk wasn't fully understood.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tropical Island

Plus, in Legacy, there was the fear of Stax. The threat wasn't really tangible, but there was always the fear that a prison deck would completely shut down whatever you were trying to do with Blood Moon, Chalice of the Void, and/or Trinisphere. It took years for the fear to subside, but not the threat. Prison, be it pure Stax or red-based, was always viable. It was just as powerful as the format-defining Delver decks, but not as consistent in the mid-game. The tradeoff was early game acceleration leading to insurmountable advantages. Instead, it felt more like players had signed onto a social contract to just play Brainstorm decks rather than Sol land decks.

Full Circle

In other words, the new Legacy defined by White Stompy is really just a return to form. A lot of the complaints about this deck being unwelcome in Legacy stem from the belief that such gameplay doesn't belong in Legacy. That sort of blowback is to be expected when an unwritten social contract is broken, but the simple truth is that this gameplay has always been in Legacy, and it used to form an integral piece. It just hasn't been popular for a while.

The Lesson

The above points came from an argument I had with a self-described Legacy master over the weekend. He hates the new white stompy decks because his 4-Color Pile can't compete with initiative's value. He had to concede my point and ultimately admitted that it was salt more than anything driving his feelings, but it all got me thinking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Every format is defined not just by what players actually want to do, but what they can do. Not what metagame says they should do, but what they're allowed to do in terms of the legal cards and the limitations of their mana. This has led me to finally have an answer for what Pioneer is, after a year of trying to define it.

Limited Possiblities

Pioneer is the fetchless format. Wizards decreed it thus when they banned the allied fetchlands. Yes, Fabled Passage exists, but it's nowhere near the other fetchlands in power and utility. They likely looked at the 4-5 color mess that Frontier and Khans-Block Standard became and learned their lesson. For a lower-power format to work, the mana couldn't be too good. However, this has had the side effect of severely limiting what is possible for players to do in Pioneer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lotus Field

As of writing, of the 15 decks on MTGGoldfish's Pioneer page, there are four decks that are actually three colors. Lotus Field combo doesn't count; it's a blue-green deck with some black cards for the combo. The splashes in Green Devotion don't count either. I wouldn't count the split in Fires of Invention decks between decks with Yorion, Sky Nomad and not, but that's irrelevant. The first true tricolor deck on their list is Abzan Greasefang, and I'd say it's a Tier 2 deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Greasefang, Okiba Boss

The cost of playing three or more colors is inconsistent mana, at least in comparison to Legacy and Modern. In Modern, two fetchlands turn into a triome and shockland for all five colors. It's why seven decks on Modern's page are unequivocally three-plus color decks. In Pioneer, hitting all five colors turn 2 requires actually drawing the right triome and shockland, which cannot be guaranteed with the consistency of Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fires of Invention

This puts far more strain on manabases and consequently on deckbuilding. Fires is the only deck with four colors in Pioneer not because it's inherently the right way to build multicolor decks, but because Fires itself fixes the otherwise quite questionable manabase.

Bad and Slow

Moreover, the mana in Pioneer is not only bad, but it's slow. There is no fast mana, at least in the way it has been traditionally understood. No rituals. One land that produces more than one mana without conditions (Lotus Field), and only Mox Amber for artifact acceleration. Every other mana source needs to be paid for at a rate equivalent to the source's mana cost. It's all investment mana.

Modern has seen most of its fast mana banned away over the years, leaving the bounce lands, two rituals, Gemstone Cavern, and Chancellor of the Tangle as fast-ish mana above Pioneer's level. Legacy is, as mentioned, the true fast mana format. Consequently, Pioneer and Modern are considerably slower than Legacy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Desperate Ritual

Fast mana is in many ways the defining line between Modern and Legacy, more even than Reserved List cards or Brainstorm. Legacy's mana allows for far more turn 1 wins than actually happen. In Modern, the only possible turn 1 win is with Neoform, which is so unlikely it's an irrelevant consideration.

Formats as Defined by Mana

With all this in mind, I think I can finally and definitively place each format as a function of what is possible. Regardless of the spells available in each format, it is the mana available that actually determines the gameplay possible, and therefore the format's identity. Through this lens, we can define the major constructed formats as such:

  • Standard: The rotating format. Is whatever Wizards wants/allows it to be.
  • Pioneer: No non-basic fetchlands, negligible fast mana. Faster decks with two or less colors rewarded, while many-color decks struggle. Games play out relatively fast. Turn one wins impossible.
  • Modern: Fetchlands legal, most fast mana banned. Many-color decks easy, few-color decks less powerful. Games tend to be relatively fast. Turn one wins possible but quite rare.
  • Legacy: Fetchlands legal, most fast mana legal. Many-color decks very easy, fast mana also easy. Games tend to be medium-speed, but turn one wins very possible.
  • Vintage: Fetchlands legal, all fast mana legal, although the artifacts are restricted. Many-color decks very easy, fast mana omnipresent. Fair decks tend towards medium-speed, combo decks aim for turn-one wins.

The takeaway: regardless of what cards Wizards ends up printing, Pioneer will always be limited by its lack of fetchlands compared to other non-rotating formats. In Modern, much more is possible because the manabase allows for more decks with loose color discipline. That will never be true for Pioneer unless Wizards changes its mind over fetchlands.

Adjust Expectations

So long as the manabase status quo remains, regardless of the dual lands printed, Pioneer will favor one- or two-color decks over all others. Remember, Pioneer has most of the same dual lands as Modern as-is, so more won't change the situation. Multicolor decks in non-rotating formats need fetchlands to keep pace and consistency with few-color decks, and nothing else printed thus far will do.

There was an error retrieving a chart for White Plume Adventurer

Meanwhile, Legacy players should just get used to Stompy decks. Even if something is done about initiative, the genie is out of the bottle. Players didn't play Sol land decks before because players didn't like Red Prison. Now that initiative has shown that straight prison is possible with and can benefit from the Sol lands, I'd be shocked if more decks don't come out of the woodwork. The mana has always allowed it, but a good payoff has finally arrived.

Working Within Restrictions

When thinking about formats, there will always be the tension between what is possible and what players actually do. Modern's card base is vast, and there are many more obscure decks that could see play struggle to find traction. This is true of all non-rotating formats. Sometimes the decks aren't up to snuff but often it's just easier to play along with the mainstream. This does mean when something comes along to upset the status quo, it will feel far more jarring and unexpected.

Adam’s Top 10 Pioneer Cards of 2022

Posted on by Adam Cohen

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Following last week's article on my Top 10 Modern Cards of 2022, it only seemed right to highlight my favorites for Pioneer as well. While there will be some overlap with the Modern list, Pioneer is an ecosystem all its own with a plethora of powerhouse cards worthy of a shout-out. As with last week, I will preface this article with a disclaimer that these are just an opinion. If there's a card you were expecting to be on the list or ranked differently than you expected, let me know in the comments below.

10. Liliana of the Veil

Liliana of the Veil was the face of the early days of Modern, serving as the centerpiece of nearly every black-based deck for almost a decade. It was grindy and difficult to answer while taking advantage of the lack of card draw available in the format. With its new-to-Pioneer reprint in Dominaria United, Liliana once again has somewhere to shine.

Pioneer is no stranger to card draw. It's the only competitive format where Treasure Cruise remains legal. However, Liliana's utility goes beyond setting up a one-card soft lock. She is the best recursive discard outlet in the format and punishes control players' reactive draws. Drawing out an Absorb in order to resolve a Greasefang, Okiba Boss or being able to discard Parhelion II to bring back later are common, yet powerful lines. Black midrange decks can combine Liliana's discard with the taxing ward ability on Graveyard Trespasser to keep the opponent from being able to interact with the Trespasser.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana of the Veil

9. Giada, Font of Hope

Giada, Font of Hope is an interesting inclusion because it's not as flashy as some of the other cards on this list, but it's an important role player. Historically, angels have been big, bomb-y creatures at high mana values like Akroma, Angel of Wrath and Baneslayer Angel. They have all the payoffs for a wow-factor finish, but not a lot of support to get to that point. A trend in recent years has been to print powerful angel creatures at lower mana costs like Righteous Valkyrie, Inspiring Overseer, and Resplendent Angel. Despite a surprisingly deep pool of three-mana angels, prior to Giada, Youthful Valkyrie was the only two-drop.

Giada provides a highly important curve filler, mana acceleration, and a powerful lord effect on an already above-rate body. Its printing has made GW and Bant Collected Company Angels decks something to be feared in the format. For pushing this fan-favorite creature type into the upper echelons of competitive play, Giada earns herself my ninth-place spot.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Giada, Font of Hope

8. Misery's Shadow/Tenacious Underdog

Including both Misery's Shadow and Tenacious Underdog as my eighth-place card feels a bit like cheating, but the two serve the same function. One of, if not the top deck in Pioneer currently is RB Midrange. The deck features Thoughtseize, a bunch of spot removal, and more three-drops than the opponent can shake a stick at. Graveyard Trespasser, Bonecrusher Giant, Go Blank, et. al. are powerful but clunky. Giving the deck not one, but two powerful two-drops to complement a playset of Bloodtithe Harvester (which has been doing a lot of heavy lifting) brings RB from a dinky pile of good stuff to a top deck with an excellent curve.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tenacious Underdog

Tenacious Underdog shines as a hasty revenge killer against planeswalkers like Liliana of the Veil and the occasional Teferi, Hero of Dominaria that gets value out of discarding or trading off.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Misery's Shadow

Meanwhile, Misery's Shadow hedges against opposing Underdogs as well as popular cards like Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger, Arclight Phoenix, and Old-Growth Troll by exiling them when they would leave the battlefield. Given how often RB Midrange makes its way to the late game, Shadow gets to shine as a bear on curve or a massive beat stick down the line.

7. Oni-Cult Anvil

It definitely says something about the Pioneer card pool that two separate Rakdos decks are able to co-exist while fighting on different axes. Oni-Cult Anvil was a major pick up for Caldron Familiar-Witch's Oven decks. This RB Sacrifice deck utilizes various artifact and sacrifice synergies to generate massive board states and card advantage, slowly chipping away at the opponent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oni-Cult Anvil

Oni-Cult Anvil is the complementary engine that makes the Cat-Oven plan purr, but the archetype also received support in the form of Ob Nixilis, the Adversary, Experimental Synthesizer, and Mishra's Research Desk this year. It's clear an aristocrats-style deck was a priority for the folks at Wizards, and you don't hear me complaining.

6. Fable of the Mirror-Breaker

What a surprise! Adam is talking about Fable of the Mirror-Breaker in yet another article. Here's the thing, Fable is that good. For three mana, it comes with two must-answer creatures, mana acceleration and fixing, and card selection. It does everything for a surprisingly accessible mana cost and no singular removal spell deals with the value generated from this saga. In most situations, it's going to pull its caster ahead or slam the door shut if they're already winning.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fable of the Mirror-Breaker

Fable shines both as a midrange card in the Rakdos decks as well as a combo piece in Indomitable Creativity shells, providing ramp, filtering, and fodder to facilitate Torrential Gearhulk casting Magma Opus from the graveyard. If left unchecked, it can even make token copies of Gearhulk to really grind the opponent into the ground.

I don't know who signed off on this card, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it on the Pioneer ban list this time next year.

5. Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

For a four-drop creature with no enters-the-battlefield effect, Sheoldred, the Apocalypse has really been getting around. She has mostly replaced Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet as the top end of RB Midrange, and just like Kalitas, is the deck's primary source of life gain. This helps to fuel cards like Castle Lochtwain and Sorin the Mirthless that trade life for resources as well as offset early aggressive plays from the opponent.

Sheoldred benefits from mediocre non-black removal options as well as a highly resilient five toughness, allowing it to typically block in combat without dying, then immediately recouping life with each draw step. Incidental drawing from Fable of the Mirror-Breaker and Blood tokens also help further pad the player's life total against aggressive strategies like Mono-White and Atarka Red.

Most notably, decks like UR Phoenix and the Hidden Strings-Lotus Field draw a ton of cards. Sheoldred punishes these decks for spinning their wheels, and if the opponent doesn't have an immediate answer, she creates a quick clock as they dig for one.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

4. Unlicensed Hearse

Everything I said about Unlicensed Hearse in Modern applies to Pioneer as well. After the initial mana cost, Unlicensed Hearse disrupts the opponent's graveyard for no mana. Compare this to similar cards like Lion Sash and Scavenging Ooze which need mana for each activation. Soul-Guide Lantern and Tormod's Crypt can one-shot a graveyard to stop the opponent from doing things once they hit a critical mass, but Hearse prevents them from reaching that mass in the first place. It also threatens to be a "hasty" game-ending creature once the opponent decides to crew it, which must also be respected.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Unlicensed Hearse

Pioneer is the only format where delve spells like Treasure Cruise and Temporal Trespass are legal and see heavy play. Access to Hearse stops these delve decks from being able to cast their spells for anything short of their full (or nearly full) mana cost, and it does so for zero colored mana required.

With such a low opportunity cost, Hearse gets to wreak havoc on some of the most popular decks and their powerful spells. It's easy to see why Unlicensed Hearse is the most popular card in the format with more than 38% of decks registering at least one copy.

3. The Channel Lands

As with every other format, the channel lands of Boseiju, Who Endures, Otawara, Soaring City, Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance, Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire, and Takenuma, Abandoned Mire have become must-have staples in every deck that features their respective colors.

These lands tap for colored mana and enter untapped, meaning there is little to no downside in including the first copy. This tracks with their usage as they rank first, second, sixth, tenth, and eleventh in usage for lands respectively, representing 36%-22% metagame saturation. The only other lands to crack the top ten are basics and Den of the Bugbear. I cannot understate how powerful these cards are, or how important the added reach from uncounterable removal, hasty instant-speed creatures, or graveyard recursion in a land slot is.

This cycle is powerful because of its non-existent opportunity cost coupled with providing a free out against mana flood. Never leave home without Channel Lands. For those interested in Magic finance, I strongly recommend picking up as many copies as possible.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boseiju, Who Endures
There was an error retrieving a chart for Otawara, Soaring City
There was an error retrieving a chart for Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance
There was an error retrieving a chart for Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire
There was an error retrieving a chart for Takenuma, Abandoned Mire

2. Greasefang, Okiba Boss

Coming in at number two is Greasefang, Okiba Boss, the namesake card that spawned its own top-tier archetype from the moment it was spoiled at the top of the year. Greasefang reanimates and crews a vehicle from the graveyard and gives it haste. The most potent target is Parhelion II, which either kills the opponent in a single shot or gets them very close to dead and cleans up the following turn.

Greasefang decks have gone through several permutations with the current preference seeming to be an Abzan shell with self-mill cards like Grisly Salvage. The green splash gives the deck a midrange plan of just casting and recurring Esika's Chariot over and over, or occasionally casting Skysoverign, Consul Flagship. Both of these options are hard for the opponent to answer and divert attention away from the usual Parhelion lines.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Greasefang, Okiba Boss

1. Karnboards

Is this a cheap way out for me to condense my list to just ten items? Maybe, but the Karn, the Great Creator wishboards are very deserving of my number one spot. Mono-Green Ramp continues to be one of the best decks in Pioneer, utilizing Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx to generate ridiculous sums of mana. Karn acts as a payoff, combo piece, and plan B with its ability to pull artifacts from the sideboard. Thanks to multiple artifact-focused sets in 2022, the range of options for these wishboards has gotten particularly scary.

Haywire Mite is a tutorable Naturalize effect which can answer hate pieces like Damping Sphere, turning lights-out Stax effects into mere speedbumps.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Haywire Mite

Cityscape Leveler is a much-needed upgrade over Meteor Golem, blowing up any troublesome nonland from the opponent while offering an 8/8 construct for my troubles.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cityscape Leveler

The Stone Brain is a surgical answer to opposing combo decks as well as a win condition after initiating infinite The Chain Veil loops.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Stone Brain

Finally, Woodcaller Automaton is a wishable ritual effect that untaps Nykthos, reducing the need for either Kiora, Behemoth Beckoner or Teferi, Who Slows the Sunset during the initial stages of a combo turn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Woodcaller Automaton

These are just a few of the newest cards to make up the Karnboard. Unlicensed Hearse mentioned above also makes an appearance as well as plenty of 2021 cards like Treasure Vault and Esika's Chariot. Suffice it to say these Karn packages keep getting stronger and stronger. I imagine 2023 will be no different.

End Step

That's a wrap on another countdown list for the most powerful cards from 2022. Were there any significant players from Pioneer that I missed? What does your list look like? Leave a comment or shoot me a message on Twitter @AdamECohen and let me know.

Be sure to get hyped for next week too! Explorer Anthology II drops in a few days and I'm excited to see how it'll upgrade the metagame as we inch closer to true-to-Pioneer territory. Be sure to come back next week to check out my Adam Plays Magic article. You won't want to miss it.

On the Hasbro Fireside Chat

Posted on by Sigmund Ausfresser

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It may be no coincidence that Hasbro decided to participate in a Fireside Chat with UBS less than a month after Bank of America double-downgraded the stock out of concern for Magic: the Gathering’s ability to deliver on its goals. I couldn’t find anything that directly related the two, but it stands to reason Hasbro would want to defend some of their recent Magic-focused strategies to the analyst community.

Thus, last Thursday, December 8th, Chris Cocks (CEO) and Cynthia Williams (president, Wizards of the Coast and Digital Gaming) joined a conference call with UBS to talk about the business of Magic: the Gathering.

Numerous questions were asked throughout the call, ranging from high-level business strategy to specifics around overprinting cards and the pacing of new set releases.

I had the opportunity to give the recording a listen last weekend and wanted to share a few thoughts on the interview in this week’s article.

TL; DL (Too Long; Didn’t Listen)

Even though the fireside chat was just 40 minutes in length, there were many important sound bites worth unpacking, yielding a fairly dense discussion. That being said, I want to kick off my analysis by providing my take on the synopsis of the interview.

Let’s start with some interesting numbers:

  • 50,000,000: the number of Magic players as reported by Hasbro
  • 30: the average age of a Magic player
  • > 70%: the approximate percentage of players who play casually
  • > 10,000,000: the approximate number of players registered on Arena
  • 75%: in-store play participation today is 75% of where they were pre-pandemic
  • > 10,000: the number of participants in the Magic 30th celebration in Las Vegas
  • 10: the number of years between pricing adjustments for Magic products
  • 6: the number of major “tentpole” releases Hasbro plans per year.
  • 2: the number of months between tentpole releases
  • > 6,000: number of Wizards Play Network hobby stores

On the call, Hasbro talked about their new market segmentation strategy to deliver products for targeted players to grow the player base and increase dollar sales per player. According to Wizards, this strategy breaks consumers into different categories based on play patterns, such as the casual player, the collector, and the competitive player. These player groups are interested in different kinds of product releases. This is a common, yet effective strategy in consumer goods.

Players who engage in both paper and Arena are engaged the most. These hybrid players report the highest level of satisfaction and spend more annually, about 40% above the average Magic player. Arena also provides a great onboarding ramp for new players.

Regarding print runs, there are no concerns with printing too many cards on Hasbro’s end. They emphasized that many products are printed to demand, so if there’s demand for the product then they print more to meet that demand. It’s only the special collector product where print runs are purposefully limited to create rarity/collectability.

WPN hobby stores’ sales make up a large portion of Wizards’ sales, and a survey of over 2200 hobby stores revealed more than 80% reported growing or equal sales over the past year.

In other words, things are great. Hasbro is executing the deliberate strategy they've put together. The path ahead is clear and well-outlined.

So why all the concern?

Community Reaction

I’ve seen a number of takes on social media (i.e. Twitter) in response to this fireside chat. Popular YouTuber and podcaster @SaffronOlive shared mostly ambivalent comments about the interview.

Other responses, such as @ChiStyleGaming, were a bit more negative in tone. There appears to be a lack of confidence in Hasbro’s leadership when it comes to managing Magic.

Other members of the Magic Twitter community were, shall we say, a bit blunter.

Why does there appear to be this massive disconnect between the player community and Hasbro’s leadership? Can Wizards of the Coast truly be so ignorant as to ignore the pleas of the community?

Hold your horses! Before getting out your pitchforks and marching on Pawtucket, RI, let’s take a step back first and look at this a little more pragmatically, with emotions removed. Yes, some members of the player base are frustrated, but I don’t think this portends Magic’s imminent death—not by a long shot.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Angry Mob

Let’s Take a Step Back

Let me start with the facts. Hasbro is a huge company. It has a market capitalization of over $8 billion with just about 6,000 employees. I have full confidence in their projection that Magic: the Gathering will become their first billion-dollar brand. Major economic depression aside, the data certain trends in this direction.

First of all, they didn’t get to this point by chance. During the fireside chat, Hasbro’s leaders said that in 2016 Magic sales were in the $350 - $400 million range. There was a heavy focus on competitive play, but they were “afraid” to build products that deviated from their traditional strategies.

With this new player segmentation model, Magic’s business has nearly tripled over the past six years. People will question what they will when it comes to the answers they gave to the UBS analyst’s questions, but I doubt they’re making these numbers up. This is major growth. It shows that their segmentation strategy isn’t just working. It’s firing on all cylinders!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horn of Plenty

The community is quick to point out that the pacing of new releases is too fast and that Hasbro is taking a misstep by printing products that “aren’t for you.” The very things they are condemning as poor form are the very strategies that are driving tremendous growth for Hasbro. You can’t argue with the results so far.

Addressing Concerns

YES, some of these products aren’t for you. That’s their strategy. They said so on the call! YES, Wizards of the Coast is releasing more products now than before. It’s because they are activating their new consumer segmentation—a segmentation that demands customized releases to meet the different player demands. They need to release products for competitive players, casual players, and collectors alike.

They used to attempt this by putting all three into their limited product offerings. Instead, by releasing targeted products for each demographic, they can better meet the needs of the different player segments without making compromises.

As for the “angry player base”, as one vocal Twitter member called it, I’m not so sure if they’re Hasbro’s target audience. Hasbro has deliberately changed its business strategy to drive revenue growth. Change isn’t always embraced by people—in fact, some people (I’d argue the people who are shouting their disgust with the game) are averse to change. Change is uncomfortable. It means things that we once loved and cherished may not be the same ever again. It’s no wonder some players are reacting as negatively as they are.

However, change is a necessary force in business. I can’t blame Hasbro for taking a risk and trying something new. Had they stuck to the same strategy and release schedule as they did a decade ago, there’s no way Magic would have grown to the place where it is now. If they stuck with the same strategy as they had 20 years ago, there’s a good chance Magic wouldn’t have even made it to its 30th anniversary.

Sig’s Take

I’ll be the first person to admit that I loved what Magic used to be back in 1998-2006. That’s when my love for the game really developed, and I became a solidified player and collector. I remember when Wizards of the Coast first announced the creation of planeswalkers! I was really annoyed and frustrated about how much they could warp a game of Magic. Then they released double-faced cards! Were they crazy?!

It turns out, these changes didn’t destroy the game. Wizards of the Coast will certainly continue to make their share of mistakes, but as long as they’re willing to learn from them and pivot as needed, I think the health of Magic will remain stable. In other words, I didn’t listen to the fireside chat and immediately think that Magic was doomed. I was more inclined to think that Hasbro’s leaders didn’t really share any information that changed my opinion one way or another.

Let’s face it, Chris Cocks and Cynthia Williams spewed a good deal of corporate jargon and pre-rehearsed numbers to highlight the success of the game. I’m not so naïve as to think everything is as perfect as they indicated, but I also don’t think things are as dire as the Twitter community’s perception either. The reality is probably somewhere in between.

The important thing to me is that Hasbro is truly invested in Magic’s success. You know what? I am too! We have similar goals in mind. We both want more people to play Magic. We both want awesome new set releases and cool crossover products. Do I care about every product they release? Of course not!

That’s OK. I recognize I am an individual player with a certain play preference, and that Hasbro is going to release some products for me and some products that aren’t for me. Those products will be for a different player. I can live with that.

Wrapping It Up

I would describe my overall feelings about where Magic is headed in 2023 and beyond as “cautiously optimistic.” I think Hasbro has made a drastic change to its strategy over the past four years, and the data indicate this change has worked exceptionally well to drive sales and engagement with the game.

Will this trajectory of fast growth continue for the next few years, or will players and stores ultimately burn out from the fast pace of releases? Only time will tell. Clearly, Wizards of the Coast has a golden goose in Magic, and I hope they find the right balance between collecting eggs and nurturing that goose so that it can thrive for years to come.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gilded Goose

No matter what happens, I am confident in one thing: Hasbro will be watching the performance of Magic very closely in the coming years, and they’ll make adjustments to their strategy where needed. If the game starts to show signs of excessive player and wallet fatigue, I trust that Hasbro will take note and adjust accordingly. They’ve made it clear that they’re willing to take some risks and change strategies, so if it becomes necessary to pivot I am confident they will do so.

If nothing else, that’s a positive takeaway from this session. Hasbro cares about Magic. They wouldn’t have done a fireside chat in response to the Bank of America double downgrade if they didn’t care. I also care about Magic. Our interests are sufficiently aligned, and I think it spells positive things for the game this decade.

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Sigmund Ausfresser

Sigmund first started playing Magic when Visions was the newest set, back in 1997. Things were simpler back then. After playing casual Magic for about ten years, he tried his hand at competitive play. It took about two years before Sigmund starting taking down drafts. Since then, he moved his focus towards Legacy and MTG finance. Now that he's married and works full-time, Sigmund enjoys the game by reading up on trends and using this knowledge in buying/selling cards.

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Lil’ BROs: The Enormous Footprint of BRO’s Smallest Creatures

Posted on by Robert Genuario

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While I never advocate strict pick orders, to illustrate a point I'd like to provide a hyperbolic and nuance-free outline for how I want to start my draft. My priorities for pack 1, pick 1 are as follows:

  1. Bombs or near-bombs
  2. Scrapwork Cohort
  3. Removal
  4. Scrapwork Mutt
  5. The two common one drops, Goblin Blast-Runner and Citanul Stalwart

Bombs and removal mostly speak for themselves. We can include any individual card that performs like a bomb in an archetype that we might be soft-forcing in this category as well. Two weeks ago, we discussed the power of the unearth cards. These two are the best performing, and seeded in the best performing colors. The top cards on this list are likely agreed upon as premium picks, even if individual preferences might rattle the precise order. However, placing these one drops on this lofty perch might come under some scrutiny. This disagreement is the topic I am excited to discuss this week.

What Is The Brothers' War?

The Brother's War (BRO) is, more than anything else, a tempo format. Being on the front foot is very valuable, and even if we're looking to establish an attrition-based game plan, we don't want to fall too far behind our aggressors. Gaining an early advantage on the battlefield, be it a mana advantage, pressure advantage, or otherwise, leads to a good amount of wins. While a wide range of decks are viable, most of my trophy wins come from being red or white-based aggro.

If our goal is to draft for free, then we want to hit certain thresholds. We want to win four-five games in our Arena Premier Drafts. We want to win two or three matches at our FNMs (though due to changes in prize support, this dream may be dead at some local game shops).

While I enjoy my Elsewhere Flask/Corrupt decks, red and white-based aggro pays the bills.

Boros Bill Payers

There are a lot of cards in this color pair that are on a consistent, creature-based, aggressive plan. As a result, it's feasible to pilot aggressive decks to profit without hitting the lottery on rares and mythics.

Enter the Blast-Runner

Aggressive decks want great two-drops. The only thing better is great one-drops.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Blast-Runner

This card hits early and often. Being able to peck in for a few points of damage on a clear board is nice, but once we start cracking Evolving Wilds and Retro Artifacts, the damage gets very threatening, very quickly.

That, however, is not the reason why it is such a high pick for me. The real reason we want to prioritize the goblin is that I want as many as I can get. This one drop represents a plan. The more copies of Blast-Runner, we have, the more consistent that plan becomes. In short, decks that want one Goblin Blast-Runner actually want three or more. Red Aggro is a real deck. It can be built in many ways. Blast-Runner Aggro is a very powerful version of the deck that leans on a few synergies, hopefully in multiples.

Bitter Reunion is the best friend of our one-drop goblin. It lets us pitch lands in search of more goblins, and when we find them, we can give them haste, menace, and more power as we sacrifice the enchantment. When playing Blast-Runner Aggro, we want as many copies of these cards as we can get. Reunion not only fuels our hand but can let us make up the tempo in future turns. Best of all, the more of each, the lower the land count we can play. If we can round out our deck with Penregon Strongbulls, Scrap Mutts, and some curve topping Unleash Shell, we have a solid, threatening plan.

When We Fail to Plan, We Plan to Fail

Goblin Blast-Runner is a card we need to build around. A one-mana 1/2 is not worth a draw step. However, as we begin piecing together our deck, we want to make sure we have Blast Fodder if we're looking to play this creature. We prioritize it because it's an essential part of a plan. It is not, however, an objectively strong piece of any red deck.

As we're drafting red decks we want to take the objectively powerful cards, but the more Goblin Blast-Runners we have, the more supporting pieces we want. We should consider what our deck could look like at the end of the draft. If we have these pieces early enough, it makes it easier to commit to those directions. We can be a good red deck without these synergies. I think we can be a better red deck with these synergies.

Blast-Runner Aggro (7-2)

Creatures

3 Goblin Blast-Runner
1 Ambush Paratrooper
1 Feldon, Ronom Excavator
2 Scrapwork Mutt
1 Phalanx Vanguard
1 Foundry Inspector
2 Penregon Strongbull
1 Scrapwork Cohort
1 Aeronaut Cavalry
1 Great Desert Prospector

Artifact

1 Supply Drop

Enchantment

1 Military Discipline
3 Bitter Reunion
1 Prison Sentence

Sorcery

1 Excavation Explosion
3 Unleash Shell

Land

2 Evolving Wilds
6 Plains
8 Mountain

The Stalwart Plan

Last week, I expressed some skepticism about this little mana dork. That doubt quickly dissipated after watching Sam Black and chord_o_calls stream. Both players used Citanul Stalwart often and to great success. The card is very real.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Citanul Stalwart

Citanul Stalwart occupies a similar space as Goblin Blast-Runner in that, when we want one, we want many. It is a tent pole of an entire archetype. In some instances, it might remind old-school Modern players of Affinity decks. The Stalwarts let us empty our hands quickly, playing similarly to Springleaf Drum.

Sidenote: Springleaf Drum can, coincidentally, fill in for your third or fourth Stalwart. However, one of the valuable aspects of the Stalwart is that it can tap your artifacts, especially Powerstones for colored mana. The Drum is not nearly as flexible.

Why Stalwart?

Citanul Stalwart lets us play a five-color green deck that can access some of the format's most powerful spells. It lets you splash the unearth cost of any of the creatures we happen to draft, and it can splash bomb rares as well. Because we can ramp as early as turn two, we can often put enough material on the board to slow down our opponents until we're able to value them out. Stalwart allows for a flexible shell and can use what the table is giving us. However, there are some cards we need to maximize it.

Five-Color Stalwart (5-3)

Creatures

1 Alloy Animist
3 Citanul Stalwart
1 Argothian Sprite
1 Zephyr Sentinel
2 Ambush Paratrooper
1 Airlift Chaplain
1 Loran of the Third Path
2 Argothian Opportunist
1 Mishra, Claimed by Gix
1 Skyfisher Spider
2 Boulderbranch Golem

Artifact

1 Chromatic Star
1 Mishra's Research Desk
2 Goblin Firebomb
1 Energy Refractor

Instant

1 Disenchant
1 Overwhelming Remorse

Sorcery

1 Mishra's Command
1 Emergency Weld
1 Recommission

Land

4 Plains
1 Swamp
9 Forest

Cheap cards like Goblin Firebomb help us activate our Stalwarts to ramp out early Boulderbranch Golem. While this deck could have used a little more top-end, it functioned smoothly on fourteen lands.

Once we've collected at least three Citanul Stalwarts, supplemented by some combination of Energy Refractor and Evolving Wilds, we really have carte blanche to do as we want. We can play a soldier package or use high-quality red cards. We can splash bombs. Whatever the table provides, we can facilitate. This is because, in this specific format, Citanul Stalwart is basically Birds of Paradise (some assembly required). Here's the caveat though: it doesn't work with just one Citanul Stalwart.

Remember That Pick Order?

The biggest reason why we should prioritize these creatures is that they are cards that we want in multiple. They represent a plan. When we move through the draft, we're often times looking for a plan or balancing multiple at once. Some cards offer us inroads to better plans. Sometimes we see valuable pieces that might enhance whatever plan can support their inclusion. While we shouldn't overlook superior options, the case for these two is as follows:

  • Both Stalwart decks and Blast-Runner decks want multiple copies of their respective one-drops, often more than they want any other card.
  • Goblin Blast-Runner decks are well-supported at common and pair well with many colors, or simply as mono-red.
  • Citanul Stalwart decks are flexible enough to incorporate whatever strong plan is available at our table.

While you may disagree with the list at the top of the article (perhaps for good reason), if you find that your decks are lacking a clear plan, prioritizing these two cards might be the direction you need in this format.

Shine a Little Light

This week, we're going to shine a little light, on my new favorite card in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Recommission

There is a setup cost here. Namely, small creatures (or artifacts) need to be in our graveyard. The good news is those small creatures naturally end up in graveyards! Using two mana to get back a three-drop with a counter on it feels like very good value every time it happens. Sometimes it fishes out an Ambush Paratrooper or an Air Marshal to help you push through lethal. Occasionally, it re-buys one of our critical one-drops, which is especially useful for Citanul Stalwart. At higher rarities, it can be back-breaking for opponents. Third Path Iconoclast? Yotian Dissident? How about Skystrike Officer or Siege Veteran?

If we're playing an aggressive deck, which is what white wants to be doing in this format, the card has a very low failure rate. Often times you trade, and the next turn you double spell. Using two mana to get a 5/5 Warlord's Elite, a 3/3 Airlift Chaplain, or a 2/5 Yotian Medic leads to some very powerful turns.

Recommission's 17Lands data is admittedly underwhelming. It claims a GIH WR of 55.1% and has a negative IWD. As far as the eye test goes though, this card has over-performed for me. It has been a flexible and undercosted tool that has won me multiple games. Are my experiences the result of a small sample size or has this card been strong for you? Let me know in the comments.

November ’22 Metagame Analysis: Gradual Shifting

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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Greeting QS Insiders. It's now time for me to dive into the data I presented on Wednesday and also discuss the observations that aren't visible in the data. November is going to be a bit odd in this regard as the observable data doesn't look dramatically different from October. However, that is a bit deceptive, and there's a lot going on beneath the surface. Modern is seeing a burst of brewing which might be a flash in the pan, or it could really turn into something. If it can break through the established players, which is looking... potentially possible. With an asterisk.

The Meta Shift That Wasn't

The first thing to address is the question posed by my previous analysis article in October: what effect will The Brothers' War have on Modern? I can now say that the answer is almost none. It's rather anti-climactic, but very few cards have made it into Modern decks at all and none have had any measurable metagame impact. Haywire Mite has seen the most play, as it's in pretty much every Urza's Saga deck which can produce green mana. It even inspired an attempt to make Insect Tribal a deck. The deck has (many) more legs than I'd expected, but hasn't really done anything in the wider metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Haywire Mite

Outside of Mite, both The Stone Brain and Loran of the Third Path are seeing sideboard play. However, where Loran is seeing more play than I expected, Brain is seeing a lot less. Despite certain expectations, Prison Tron did not see a persistent surge of play, nor did it put up results. As expected, it was popular for the first weekend, then immediately fell off.

Brain does not fix any flaws in the deck. It wasn't good before BRO, and Brain doesn't move the needle enough to change anything. Bitter Reunion is still seeing some niche play as a supplement to Fable of the Mirror-Breaker.

Thinking With Portal

Which isn't to say that BRO might not eventually shake up Modern. There were also expectations for Portal to Phyrexia, both on its own and alongside Shape Anew. As of this moment, those expectations have not been met. There have been dedicated combo decks around the card, but they didn't put any results into my data. There have been some 4-Color Control lists that include the combo, but the current evidence suggests that their success is more down to the rest of the list than the combo itself. In which case, Indomitable Creativity would be better.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Portal to Phyrexia

That said, there is potential here. Portal is quite expensive, but has two very powerful effects. The current lists all look too cute and/or janky to me, which explains why they're not currently working. With some more refinement, I could see this becoming a Splinter Twin-esqe combo for Modern control decks. However, there is a lot of tension and clunk to work out first.

The Wildcard

On that note, Sarinth Steelseeker has seen unexpected play. Everyone can thank aspiringspike for that; he's single-handedly revived interest in the Hell's Kitchen deck by incorporating Steelseeker. That deck didn't last because unless (deep breath) Asmoranomardicadaistinaculdacar hits play, the critical central engine does nothing. Even when the engine is going, the rest of the deck proved too anemic to cope. Spike has fixed this by adding Wrenn and Six, because adding good cards is always a good move, which makes Saga stronger.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sarinth Steelseeker

More pertinently, he added Steelseeker, giving the food engine something to do besides fuel The Unpronounceable One. With Steelseeker, every food is an opportunity to rip though the deck and find the few good cards. This has increased the consistency and therefore the power.

However, it's not enough. Spike and all the other Food players did abysmally in the Modern Showcase Qualifier. Food remains a fringe deck, but I now believe that Steelseeker does have untapped potential. How it can be captured is anyone's guess at this point.

The Three-Outlier Metagame

From the hypothetical to the actual, the metagame is beginning to split between the online and paper metagame. Where the online metagame is essentially a continuation of pre-BRO trends, the paper metagame is going another way. It's not exactly rejecting the online trends, but it's not following them either. The reasons for this at the moment are transitory and this could all be moot by the next metagame update. Or there could be a major change in the winds incoming.

All Those Outliers

Addressing the elephant in the room, Magic Online (MTGO) not only produced three statistical outliers, but they're also outliers by a significant margin. Such a margin that I didn't both with my usual battery of statistical tests because the result was obvious. The overall metagame is being inexorably twisted around the pillars of UR Murktide, Rakdos Scam, and Hammer Time. It's not because they're so much more powerful than other decks, as evidenced by their winrates. Rather, these decks take up so much of the metagame that every other deck must be ready for them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

The question then becomes how and why this has happened. The how is straightforward: they show up a lot. Specifically, these three decks show up to an inordinate amount in the Challenges. While Hammer and Murktide do make ok showings in the Preliminaries, they really turn out for the Challenges. Scam takes this to an extreme, rarely showing up in smaller events and doing exceptionally well in the big ones. This is literally driving out the other decks, leaving only the three outliers.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sigarda's Aid

The why is more complicated. No outlier deck has any particular natural advantage over the others, and each deck has a high enough power level to take any deck on. Murktide has been an enigma all year, being a deck that is absolutely everywhere despite an average win rate. Hammer and Scam are strong decks made outlier strong by the potential for free wins. Hammer can outright win on turn 2 several ways with a god draw. Scam can't outright win early, but it does feel that way when it evokes Grief into Feign Death on turn one. These lines negate some of each deck's weaknesses and make them major metagame players.

The Consequence

While neither deck being extremely popular is a problem on its own, the context and implications are more harrowing. Just look at the rest of the tier chart; the outliers account for over a third of the total results, and exceed their nearest competition by nearly 50% at minimum. Every other deck has cards in their sideboards (at minimum) specifically for the three outliers. Quite literally, all other competition is being crowded out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

When the only consistent outlier was Murktide, this wasn't really a problem. On its own, Murktide was never more than ~13% of Modern, which left plenty of room for other players. Even when it was joined by other decks, they accounted for less than 25% of Modern. This is damning by faint praise, but that's pretty typical for Tier 1 decks. However, the concentration in November is troubling. If it is sustained, there may need to be action to force the online metagame to diversify.

The Counterpoint

Such action would be unfortunate. The paper metagame looks very healthy. November is the second consecutive month without any outliers. It's also the first month since April where Murktide is not the top deck in paper. It is possible that this represents a genuine change in player taste and thus the metagame. It is also possible that it's a function of Modern being out of the spotlight, replaced by Pioneer. I have no way of knowing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Colossus Hammer

In fact, looking through the paper results (and online, to an extent) reveals a metagame that is very diverse both in terms of individual decks and strategy. The midrange and 4-Color decks are far less prevalent in paper than online, and there are combo decks doing well in the higher portion of the tier list. The MTGO results have that too, but more of them are sneaking in at the bottom of Tier 3. Therefore, they only made the list thanks to my accounting for outliers.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underworld Breach

Outside of the warp on MTGO, Modern doesn't look like it needs intervention. There are things that could be improved, but the metagame is generally fulfilling the health criteria. The MTGO warp is the only visible problem, and that's mostly down to player tastes. It would be shame to ruin it for everyone because MTGO chases its own tail, but doing so might be the only way to fix that meta.

Year-End Outlook

What this means for the financially minded out there is unclear. On the face of things, the Modern metagame status quo will remain until at least January. Whether the worrying aspects will be sustained as well is impossible to say, but I don't believe that we'll see anything truly new to shake things up without Wizards intervening before Phyrexia: All Will Be One.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urza's Saga

Of course, this is tempered by it now being December, a month when competitive Magic traditionally takes a breather. Prices always fall and so do sales. The traditional advice is that this is the time to pick up staples on the cheap and build inventory for the coming year.

While competitive Magic isn't what it once was, there is a new Modern tournament series coming to the US West Coast in 2023. The east has been well-served by both Star City Games and NRG, but there's never been anything like them in the west. This new series, limited though it will be, will drive demand for Modern staples in 2023. Thus, the old advice is still good.

That Controversy

Of course, I can't get away with any finance piece without mentioning all the controversy over Hasbro's actions vis-a-vis Magic, which the QS team has also weighed in on in article form. With the Magic 30 packs apparently failing to sell and Hasbro announcing that it intends to continue and expand its current policies, the financial Magic world is roiling. I don't need to reiterate to the Insiders the conversations happening on the QS Discord over this debacle. The thing is, I'd imagine that everyone reading this has already made up their minds about what they feel about everything, and nothing I say will change your mind about MTG finance in the near future.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gifts Ungiven

Instead, let me remind everyone of one fact: Magic is the best-selling, most popular trading card game. Period. The game itself isn't going anywhere. The fact that a new tournament series is coming next year is proof of that. For those looking to make money buying and selling cards, that door will always be open. It is those seeking to hold cards as long-term investment opportunities that are affected. I've always been addressing everyone here as players looking to move cards and not investment types, and for those people the end of 2022 should be business as usual, with improved business conditions on the horizon.

Here's to the End

The holiday season is upon us and will be done when next I write this article. I hope everyone has a joyous season of whatever you celebrate and may your purchases be low and sales high. See all you Insiders in the new year!

3 Great Gifts (and One Awful) for Your Magic Player

Posted on by Joe Mauri

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Happy holidays! 'Tis the season for giving gifts and receiving awesome Magic stuff. However, there is now more product than ever! What gifts are great versus bland? Here are some ideas that will spark joy for your favorite Magic player or even yourself. Done with your holiday shopping? There are some opportunities to flip as well!

Lands Ahoy!

Lands are the triple threat of Magic and easily the best permanent type. They are necessary, the fundamental building block of every deck, and have always been some of the most valuable and collectible cards as well. Of course, that means the best lands have long been the most expensive cards. However, right now, prices are extremely attractive on some of the absolute best lands ever printed.

Let's take a look at the horizon lands, named for Horizon Canopy. Personally, I think "canopy lands" is a cooler name, but I digress. These debuted in the $15 range and have been steadily creeping to the $5 range for most versions. Can they go much lower? I don't think so. Yes, they will be reprinted, likely in the next Modern Horizons set. However, between now and then, there are a lot of games of Magic to be played, and these lands are straight value in most decks, particularly Commander.

Not only that, but foil versions have decreased, if by quite a bit less, in the last year. For example, Cardkingdom is paying $21.45 in store credit for foil Waterlogged Grove, and there are quite a few available for just about exactly that amount on both TCGplayer and eBay. When I can buy cards for the same price or less than a large card store, it generally means it's a good idea. Here I am leveraging the data, sales, and sentiment of a huge retailer in addition to my own. It's usually been the right move!

Triomes? More Like Du-Omes!

The Triomes are good lands in multiple formats. My empirical evidence has conclusively shown that they are easily as good as any other two-color land, and since they tap for three colors and have cycling, they're just plain better. It is my opinion that they are near the bottom in the pricing cycle, so I am ready to purchase several. Additionally, I cannot see a reason for a reprint in the next year considering they just completed the cycle with Streets of New Capenna. In much the same way as the horizon lands, the foils had dropped previously but are mostly stable or climbing now.

True Duals

Here we are almost entirely talking about Revised edition dual lands. The icy reception to Magic 30th Anniversary did have a chilling effect on ABUR card prices but, in general, expensive Revised cards were hit the hardest. However, it appears that they have mostly recovered in price and are starting to trend back upwards. If you have been waiting for the price to drop on these, well, you mostly missed it. However, it's still a good deal to buy near the bottom. I've picked up several of the cheaper duals and even a graded one for absolutely bargain basement prices but now's sort of a last-chance window to snap them up.

While lands aren't the most exciting or flashy cards, they are some of the most needed. Horizons and Triomes are better than a random pack of cards and a true dual is better than an entire box (or two or three) of new cards. Seriously! Additionally, these lands range at all different price points. Whether regular, foil, showcase or vintage, there's a land for every budget.

Serialized Brothers' War

#007 James, James Wurmcoil

The name is Quiet Speculation, but here I have to open my mouth. I'm very surprised by the somewhat mild prices for serialized cards. With just a handful in existence and the fact that retro and schematic cards look amazing, it's a no-brainer to conclude these have value. However, the price premium is not unattainable. If these cards, particularly "meme" numbers, don't skyrocket in price over the years, I'd be shocked. Now imagine giving or receiving a desired card with a special, personal number? Talk about the perfect gift for any Magic enthusiast, and very nearly one of a kind. There may just be someone out there who would kill for a seemingly random number down the line.

One of the Best Sealed Products Ever, Jumpstart 2022

I'm not a huge fan of the crazy amount of reprints that Wizards dumps into the market. However, Jumpstart 2022 is very good. It's built for packwars, which it does exceedingly well! Furthermore, these aren't just vanilla reprints. You get some very cool, new artwork. And hey, they aren't $250 per pack like 30th Anniversary proxy packs. They are very reasonably priced. I give credit where credit is due. This is a successful execution of what this type of product must be for Magic to grow.

The target audience loves cracking packs, drafting, and sealed, and Jumpstart checks all the boxes. Commander player? There are a lot of great legends. New player? Packwars is an easy way to learn. You cannot go wrong here! Instead of the standard "this product is not for you," Jumpstart really is a product for everyone. That is what makes it a great gift!

The Only Thing Better Than Cards? Accessories!

Dice, sleeves, playmats, life counters, deck boxes; Magic players need a lot of stuff besides cards! A huge number of small businesses produce nothing but completely custom, one-of-a-kind accessories that any Magic player would enjoy. You might expect the price for custom accoutrements to be high, but turns out it's only a slight premium!

Getting matching sleeves, a deck box and playmat for that completed Commander deck is the cherry on top that makes an excellent and thoughtful gift for anyone.

What Not To Gift

Bulk, Bulk, and More Bulk!

Alright, let's talk about bulk lots, grab bags, repacks, mystery boosters, that sort of thing. These are marketed as gift ideas and, for the right person, they are okay. However, if you compare the price paid versus what you could have gotten instead, these are not good buys. Here's just one real life example how.

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A good friend of mine from many years ago made a deck full of Yotian Soldier, and I mean full. He rule zero'd and told his opponent his deck had far more than the legal four of and no one complained during casual play. All the time people would hand him another one or two Soldiers and he would add them to the deck. At last count it was something like 100 of them.

He would appreciate finding a Yotian in a bulk lot and it wouldn't matter that the other cards were worth pennies. However, for the same amount of money, I could hand him a stack of Soldiers. Alternatively, I could get them a few copies from Antiquities.

Which would make such a player happier? I'm sure they would rather get either original copies or mass quantities of the single card they want versus a pile of generic cards and only one Soldier. More cards does not equal more happy, but more of the right stuff does.

Of Course, the Best Gift Is You

One gift every Magic player treasures is more Magic players. New to Magic? Well, there's still a great opportunity to learn to play with either Jumpstart or the new Commander Starter decks. These could be the easiest and best ways to introduce your friends or significant other to the game. The gift of time is the most valuable and special of all, and these products allow you to make good use of it.

Hopefully I've helped cut through the myriad choices in the Magic market. There are over 25,000 unique Magic cards and many of them are downright awful. Don't waste your money on awful cards or bulk gambles when there are a lot of sure wins out there. Whether it's sealed, singles, or accessories, you can't go wrong with some of the above items. Believe me, your Magic player will thank you!

What's the best Magic gift someone gave you? What was the best gift you've given? Let me know in the comments!

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Joe Mauri

Joe has been an avid MTG player and collector since the summer of 1994 when he started his collection with a booster box of Revised. Millions of cards later he still enjoys tapping lands and slinging spells at the kitchen table, LGS, or digital Arena. Commander followed by Draft are his favorite formats, but, he absolutely loves tournaments with unique build restrictions and alternate rules. A lover of all things feline, he currently resides with no less than five majestic creatures who are never allowed anywhere near his cards. When not Gathering the Magic, Joe loves streaming a variety of games on Twitch(https://www.twitch.tv/beardymagics) both card and other.

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November ’22 Metagame Update: Divergent Continuity

Posted on by David Ernenwein

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It's the penultimate Modern metagame update of 2022. How this year has lurched by. October saw a ban and thus provided incomplete data. November is the first chance to examine the complete monthly data for the post-Yorion, the Sky Nomad metagame. Which is somewhat facetious, as the more things have changed, the more they've stayed exactly the same.

Continuing Continuity, Differentiating Divergence

UR Murktide has been a statistical outlier in the Magic Online (MTGO) data every metagame update since March, and it continues to be one in November. With two exceptions: it has also been an outlier in the paper results. October was the first exception to outlier status since April. I now need to edit the earlier statement to say three exceptions, since Murktide isn't an outlier in paper Modern again. It isn't even the top deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fury

In fact, paper doesn't have any outliers. This might be a good sign, indicative of Modern adjusting and adapting. On the other hand, there are confounding factors at play that I'll get to down the page.

MTGO made up for that by having three outliers. Both Hammer Time and Rakdos Scam were well over the minimum threshold to be considered statistical outliers. As always, outliers are in their correct place on the metagame chart but are excluded from the actual calculations, resulting in an adjusted average and standard deviation.

November Population Metagame

To make the tier list, a given deck has to beat the overall average population for the month. The average is my estimate for how many results a given deck "should” produce in a given month. Being a tiered deck requires being better than “good enough.” Every deck that posts at least the average number of results is "good enough" and makes the tier list. Then we go one standard deviation (STdev) above average to set the limit of Tier 3 and the cutoff for Tier 2. This mathematically defines Tier 3 as those decks clustered near the average. Tier 2 goes from the cutoff to the next standard deviation. These are decks that perform well above average. Tier 1 consists of those decks at least two standard deviations above the mean result, encompassing the truly exceptional performing decks. 

The MTGO Population Data

In November the adjusted average population for MTGO was 5.33, setting the Tier 3 cutoff at six decks. This is a low average and .02 below October's average, but with three excluded outliers it makes sense. Tier 3, therefore, begins with decks posting six results. The STdev was 6.05, which means that Tier 3 runs to 12 results. Again, it's the starting point to the cutoff, then the next whole number for the next Tier. Since 6.05 is so close to 6.00, I rounded down for October. Therefore Tier 2 starts with 13 results and runs to 19. Subsequently, to make Tier 1, 20 decks are required. This is the exact same set of cutoffs as October, coincidentally.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Primeval Titan

To recap, January had 502 decks, February had 436 decks, March only hit 356, April was up to 437, May had 419, June had 481, July was 478, August was 507, September had 404, and October fell to 340 decks. November shot up to 569 decks, the highest of 2022.

Which is not (necessarily) a sign of format health and popularity. MTGO is under new management, and they release more data than Wizards did. Wizards always released the results from Challenge-level events and no more than five Preliminaries every week. Daybreak Games has been releasing every event that fires. I hope it continues as there were three more Prelims on average than before, which means more complete data for me. November was also special thanks to extra events from the Last Chance Qualifiers.

The number of individual decks was up significantly from 57 to 74. More data equals more decks. Of those 74 decks, 27 made the population tier. That is quite high as these go, though it would be lower without the outliers.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
UR Murktide7913.88
Hammer Time6210.90
Rakdos Scam498.61
Amulet Titan254.39
UW Control244.22
4-Color Creativity203.51
Burn203.51
Tier 2
Jeskai Breach Combo193.34
Yawgmoth193.34
4-Color Control162.81
Living End152.64
Merfolk142.46
Tier 3
Counter Cat122.11
Bring to Light101.76
Hardened Scales101.76
Mono-Green Tron81.41
Mono-Red Artifacts81.41
5-Color Creativity81.41
4-Color Rhinos81.41
Grixis Death's Shadow81.41
Goblins71.23
Calibrated Blast71.23
Jund Saga71.23
Temur Breach Comob61.05
UW Urza61.05
Mill61.05
Hell's Kitchen61.05
So... yeah. Tier 1.

Thanks to the three outliers soaking up over a third of the total places, Tier 1 accounts of almost half of the total data in November. Interestingly, UW Control has managed to massively surge from mid-Tier 3 to Tier 1. I'd assume that it has more to do with the demise of Omnath, Locus of Creation in the wake of Yorion's ban than an independent increased interest or metagame position. Control can't really keep pace with decks where everything is a two for one or better.

The Paper Population Data

The paper tiers are calculated the same way as the MTGO tiers, just with different data. Typically, there are more paper events are reported each month, but that isn't the case in November. July had 783 decks, June had 640, and August recorded 594. September saw a surge up to 748 decks. The partial data for October had 467 decks, and November only saw 468.

Having a whole month should have produced a lot more than October, but November had confounding variables. The Regional Championships were this month and they're all Pioneer. A lot of stores switched Modern events for Pioneer to help players practice. The larger event organizers followed suit, so few and smaller events are to blame.

Weirdly, this has not affected deck diversity. October had 79 unique decks and so did November. 22 of those decks made the tier list. The average population was 5.92, so six decks make Tier 3. The STDev was 8.91, so the increment is nine. I round down if the decimal is less than .20. Again, the same as in October. Therefore, Tier 3 runs from 6 to 15, Tier 2 is 16 to 25, and Tier 1 is 26 and over.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
Hammer Time4710.04
UR Murktide377.91
4-Color Creativity347.26
Rakdos Scam306.41
Tier 2
Amulet Titan234.91
Jeskai Breach Combo224.70
Burn204.27
Tier 3
UW Control153.20
Merfolk153.20
Yawgmoth142.99
Living End132.78
Affinity132.78
4-Color Rhinos132.78
Cascade Crashers91.92
4-Color Elementals91.92
5-Color Creativity81.71
Counter Cat81.71
Grixis Death's Shadow71.50
Hardened Scales71.50
Ponza61.28
Mono-Green Tron61.28
4-Color Control61.28
Weird seeing Tiers 1 and 3 effectively equal.

Hammer Time is within the limit to be an outlier, despite appearances. It only started to pull away at the end of the month, when it was absurdly prevalent in an NRG event. Up until that point Murktide, Hammer, and 4-Color Creativity were basically equal.

Interestingly, both Crashing Footfalls decks made Tier 3 in November. The 4-Color version is the only one that shows up on MTGO, but both show up in paper all the time. The Temur version has shifted to being more of a Blood Moon deck than before. Whether this is paper players being more locked into decks than MTGO or a genuine metagame driven shift is unknown.

November Power Metagame

Tracking the metagame in terms of population is standard practice. But how do results actually factor in? Better decks should also have better results. In an effort to measure this, I use a power ranking system in addition to the prevalence list. By doing so, I measure the relative strengths of each deck within the metagame. The population method gives a deck that consistently just squeaks into the Top 32 the same weight as one that Top 8's. Using a power ranking rewards good results and moves the winningest decks to the top of the pile and better reflects their metagame potential. 

The MTGO Power Tiers

For the MTGO data, points are awarded based on the population of the event. Preliminaries award points based on record (1 for 3 wins, 2 for 4 wins, 3 for 5), and Challenges are scored 3 points for the Top 8, 2 for Top 16, and 1 for Top 32. If I can find them, non-Wizards events will be awarded points the same as Challenges or Preliminaries depending on what the event in question reports/behaves like. Super Qualifiers and similar higher-level events get an extra point and so do other events if they’re over 200 players, with a fifth point for going over 400 players. There were a few 4-point events, but no 5-pointer in November.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Puresteel Paladin

Total points fell are up just like the population, from 599 to 890. The adjusted average points were 8.28, therefore nine points made Tier 3. The STDev was 9.05, which is average. Thus add 9 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 18 points. Tier 2 starts with 19 points and runs to 28. Tier 1 requires at least 29 points.

Total decks are the same in paper as on MTGO. However, Temur Underworld Breach fell off the list, replaced by Belcher.

Deck NameTotal PointsTotal %
Tier 1
UR Murktide12113.60
Hammer Time9110.22
Rakdos Scam9010.11
UW Control394.38
Amulet Titan323.60
Jeskai Breach Combo303.37
4-Color Creativity293.26
Yawgmoth293.26
Tier 2
Burn283.15
Merfolk262.92
4-Color Control222.47
Living End202.25
Tier 3
Counter Cat171.91
Bring to Light171.91
Hardened Scales171.91
Mono-Green Tron151.68
Mono-Red Artifacts131.46
5-Color Creativity131.46
4-Color Rhinos131.46
Goblins121.35
Hell's Kitchen121.35
Grixis Death's Shadow111.24
Mill111.24
Calibrated Blast101.12
Jund Saga91.01
Belcher91.01
UW Urza91.01
And now Tier 1's over 50%. Great.

Tier 1 expanded, with Burn missing the cutoff while Jeskai Breach and Yawgmoth made it. There is a lot of movement within Tier 3, but nothing managed to escape.

It's interesting to note that the metagame has largely moved away from cascade decks in defiance of the trend earlier in the year.

The Paper Power Tiers

Unlike with population, the paper power data works differently than the equivalent MTGO data. The data reported is usually limited to the Top 8 lists, even for big events. Not that I know how big most events are, as that number doesn't always get reported.

In other cases, decks are missing. Applying the MTGO point system just doesn't work when I don't know how many points to award and there are data gaps. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risen Reef

Thus, I award points based on the size of the tournament rather than placement. That way I'm being internally consistent with the paper results.

The current system is that for events that don't report their starting populations or are under 50 players, I'm giving out 1 point. 51-300 players get 2 points. 301 and above get 3 points. I chose these levels based on the rarity of events over 300 compared to 100-200 and the fact that events under 300 tend to be local events in large cities. It feels like it should be 300 for truly unique events, despite there being no Grand Prix yet. I will be changing how the points are allocated next year, starting with the January metagame update.

There were a huge number of events awarding 2 points in July and several 3-point events as well. Altogether November had 660 points, just up from October's 650 points, but again that's to be expected when Pioneer's the focus.

The average points were 8.35. This sets the cutoff at nine decks. The STDev was 12.93, thus adding 13 to the starting point and Tier 3 runs to 22 points. Tier 2 starts with 23 points and runs to 36. Tier 1 requires at least 37 points. The total decks fell from 22 to 19. The only deck with six instances that also had enough points to qualify was 4-Color Control.

Deck NameTotal #Total %
Tier 1
Hammer Time7110.76
UR Murktide507.57
Rakdos Scam477.12
4-Color Creativity446.67
Tier 2
Amulet Titan355.30
Jeskai Breach Combo324.85
Burn294.39
Tier 3
UW Control213.18
Merfolk213.18
4-Color Rhinos213.18
Yawgmoth192.88
Living End192.88
Affinity172.58
Counter Cat142.12
4-Color Elementals111.67
5-Color Creativity111.67
Grixis Death's Shadow111.67
Cascade Crashers101.51
4-Color Control91.36
This is a bit more normal looking.

Big news on this front: I've come to a decision about the Omnath decks and names. The decks that run four Omanth and Solitude but few other creatures are 4-Color Control. If it has Risen Reef and noncreature spells it counts as 4-Color Elementals. If it has Reef, more elementals, and few non-creatures, that's Tribal Elementals. If there are at least three blink effects, it's 4-Color Blink. Of note, Blink has almost disappeared, and even then Ephemerate is gone, replaced by Touch the Spirit Realm.

Average Power Rankings

Finally, we come to the average power rankings. These are found by taking the total points earned and dividing them by total decks, to measure points per deck. I use this to measure strength vs. popularity. Measuring deck strength is hard. There is no Wins-Above-Replacement metric for Magic, and I'm not certain that one could be credibly devised. The game is too complex, and even then, power is very contextual.

Using the power rankings certainly helps and serves to show how justified a deck’s popularity is. However, more popular decks will still necessarily earn a lot of points. Which tracks, but also means that the top tier doesn't move much between population and power, and obscures whether they really earned their position. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Colossus Hammer

This is where the averaging comes in. Decks that earn a lot of points because they get a lot of results will do worse than decks that win more events, indicating which deck actually performs better. A higher average indicates lots of high finishes, whereas low averages result from mediocre performances and a high population. Lower-tier decks typically do very well here, likely due to their pilots being enthusiasts. Bear this in mind, and be careful about reading too much into these results. However, as a general rule, decks which place above the baseline average are overperforming and vice versa.

How far above or below that average determines how "justified" a deck's position is on the power tiers. Decks well above baseline are therefore undervalued while decks well below baseline are very popular but aren't necessarily good. 

The Real Story

When considering the average points, the key is looking at how far-off a deck is from the Baseline stat (the overall average of points/population). The closer a deck’s performance to the Baseline, the more likely it is to be performing close to its “true” potential. A deck that is exactly average would therefore perform exactly as well as expected. The greater the deviation from the average, the more a deck under or over-performs. On the low end, a deck’s placing was mainly due to population rather than power, which suggests it’s overrated. A high-scoring deck is the opposite of this. 

I'll begin with the averages for MTGO: 

Deck NameAverage PointsPower Tier
Belcher3.003
Hell's Kitchen2.003
Mono-Green Tron1.873
Merfolk1.862
Rakdos Scam1.841
Mill1.833
Goblins1.713
Bring to Light1.703
Hardened Scales1.703
UW Control1.621
Mono-Red Artifacts1.623
5-Color Creativity1.623
4-Color Rhinos1.623
Jeskai Breach Combo1.581
Baseline1.58
UR Murktide1.531
Yawgmoth1.531
UW Urza1.503
Hammer Time1.471
4-Color Creativity1.451
Calibrated Blast1.433
Counter Cat1.423
Burn1.402
4-Color Control1.372
Grixis Death's Shadow1.373
Living End1.332
Jund Saga1.293
Amulet Titan1.281

Congratulations to Rakdos Scam for being the best performing Tier 1 deck on MTGO. You're deck of the month, though we all suspect you cheated. Meanwhile, Amulet Titan, get your act together. No Tier 1 deck has ever been at the bottom of these rankings before. Put some effort into winning or just accept Tier 3 status.

Now, the averages for paper:

Deck NameAverage PointsPower Tier
Counter Cat1.753
4-Color Rhinos1.613
Rakdos Scam1.571
Grixis Death's Shadow1.573
Amulet Titan1.522
Hammer Time1.511
4-Color Control1.503
Living End1.463
Jeskai Breach Combo1.452
Burn1.452
UW Control1.403
Merfolk1.403
Baseline1.38
5-Color Creativity1.373
Yawgmoth1.363
UR Murktide1.351
Affinity1.313
4-Color Creativity1.291
4-Color Elementals1.223
Cascade Crashers1.113

And Scam sweeps both categories. Check the judge's bank accounts; surely there must be some bribery involved.

Composite Metagame

That's a lot of data, but what does it all mean? When Modern Nexus first started, we had a statistical method to combine the MTGO and paper data, but the math of that system doesn't work without big paper events. I tried. Instead, I'm using an averaging system to combine the data. I take the MTGO results and average the tier, then separately average the paper results, then average the paper and MTGO results together for final tier placement. 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Murktide Regent

This generates a lot of partial Tiers. That's not a bug, it's a feature. The nuance separates the solidly Tiered decks from the more flexible ones and shows the true relative power differences between the decks. Every deck in the paper and MTGO results is on the table, and when they don't appear in a given category, they're marked N/A. This is treated as a 4 for averaging purposes.

Deck NameMTGO Pop. TierMTGO Power TierMTGO Average TierPaper Pop. TierPaper Power TierPaper Average TierComposite Tier
Rakdos Scam111.00111.001.00
UR Murktide111.00111.001.00
Hammer Time111.00111.001.00
4-Color Creativity111.00111.001.00
Amulet Titan111.00222.001.50
Jeskai Breach Combo211.50222.001.75
Burn121.50222.001.75
UW Control111.00333.002.00
Yawgmoth211.50333.002.25
Merfolk222.00333.002.50
4-Color Control222.00333.002.50
Living End222.00333.002.50
5-Color Creativity333.00333.003.00
4-Color Rhinos333.00333.003.00
Counter Cat333.00333.003.00
Grixis Death's Shadow333.00333.003.00
Mono-Green Tron333.003N/A3.503.25
Hardened Scales333.003N/A3.503.25
Hell's Kitchen333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Mill333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Goblins333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Bring to Light333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Mono-Red Artifacts333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
UW Urza333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Calibrated Blast333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Jund Saga333.00N/AN/AN/A3.50
Cascade CrashersN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
AffinityN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
4-Color ElementalsN/AN/AN/A333.003.50
Temur Breach3N/A3.50N/AN/AN/A3.75
BelcherN/A33.50N/AN/AN/A3.75
PonzaN/AN/AN/A3N/A3.503.75
This metagame chart is heavily skewed and it's MTGO's fault.

Thanks to MTGO's ridiculous number of outliers holding their thumbs on the scale, Tier 1 represented an inordinate percentage of the overall Modern metagame in November. If this continues, it will mostly likely be bad times.

Dynamic Stability

November was very much a continuation of the trends first seen in October. I'd expect that to continue in December, when Magic traditionally takes a breather and events are down. Come 2023, the conclusion of the current Phyrexian storyline will have consequences. Hopefully, not dire, but we'll all see.

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