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Insider: Amonkhet Top 10!

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If you’ve been reading my article series on Amonkhet, you know that I love this set. Before dismissing many of them, there were 44 cards that I considered for this top 10 list. That’s the most out of any set since I’ve been writing.

Everything is just so cool. We all love the card advantage of cycling, embalm is like giving your creatures flashback, the -1/-1 counters approach is an interesting take on this concept, and exert is interesting and challenging to decide when to use. The flavor of the set is also a home run in my opinion. The zombies are more like mummies, but being a zombie is way better than being a mummy, so it still synergizes well with other sets. The gods are all super cool too. Do you guys love this set as much as I do?!

My goal is to keep these choice descriptions short and to the point. Let’s dive into the top 10!

10. Vizier of the Menagerie

Vizier of the Menagerie

Wow! What a cool card. Garruk's Horde is awesome but costs seven mana. Vizier of the Menagerie has basically the same effect except it is costed for competitive play. Just like Oracle of Mul Daya, this Vizier could fuel a midrange creature strategy. Maybe this is the home for Angel of Sanctions? Either way, foils will be crazy high due to Commander demand. This should be a staple, included in every green deck.

9. Samut, Voice of Dissent

Samut, Voice of Dissent
In my second prerelease deck, I got to play with Samut, Voice of Dissent. He is even crazier than he seems. You can ambush attacking creatures, use the flash ability to have your mana open for instants or just cast and attack on turn five. Any way you run it, this Gruul dude is like a Baneslayer Angel-quality mythic.

I know this is a five mana creature in red green, but he has to be worth more than the $3.50 he’s sitting at right now. I’m buying this guy aggressively at my store and I think you guys should be too.

8. Hazoret the Fervent

Hazoret the Fervent
Hazoret the Fervent is looking pretty great for Standard and casual players. Dealing with the gods isn’t something most decks in Standard will be prepared to handle, especially with haste. Running your hand size down is a natural progression of the game for red decks and we can make it quicker with discard outlets too. I think the red god might show up in multiple strategies, which could bump his price up a bit.

7. Irrigated Farmland and cycle duals

Irrigated Farmland

Originally I was going to have Zombies as one of the slots in the top 10, because Wayward Servant is a powerful card. After thinking on it, though, I think Servant is only contextually powerful, and so it slipped out of the top 10.

Instead, I decided on the cycle duals. These lands should show up in many strategies in multiple formats. Turning your lands into other cards in the late game is a powerful concept that every deck should want. Even if you only include two of these lands in your deck, you’ll be better off than not playing the lands at all.

6. Gideon of the Trials

Gideon of the Trials
A lot of players I talked with thought that because we have this three-mana Gideon, Wizards was going to ban Gideon, Ally of Zendikar. That didn’t happen, so we get to play with them together.

My thought process is that if you are already playing four Ally Gideon, Gideon of the Trials makes a fine one- or two-of to pair with him. You might also not want to pay four mana for your white planeswalker, and then Gideon of the Trials is looking a lot more appealing because of the discounted mana cost.

I still think Ally Gideon is much better than Trial Gideon, but both should see play in the format. A price of $24 is still too much to be paying for this new three-mana ‘walker, though, so unless you need them for a tournament right after release, hold off until they drop to the $15 range. That should happen within the first few weeks, I think.

5. Manglehorn

Manglehorn
First there was Uktabi Orangutan, then came Viridian Shaman, and now we get a huge upgrade to this card template with Manglehorn. Not only do we get the artifact destruction, but future artifacts enter the field tapped. This is huge for not only Standard but Modern as well. Get ready to mangle some vehicles and Steel Overseers, because Manglehorn is coming. Foils will be money as well.

4. Rhonas the Indomitable

Rhonas the Indomitable
The most played god from this cycle should be Rhonas the Indomitable. He is the easiest to turn on for sure, especially with the creatures we currently have access to. Actually playing with him is enlightening as well: he’s just so hard to stop. We even have Blossoming Defense to protect him from the few removal spells that can deal with him. In Sealed, I was able to pair Rhonas with Cartouche of Strength – and giving him trample is sick. The green enchantment could see play alongside Rhonas because it pairs so well with him. I think he should sustain every bit of the $17 he already is priced at.

3. Nissa, Steward of Elements

Nissa, Steward of Elements
There has been a ton of hype around Nissa, Steward of Elements for Modern and Standard. She has one huge weakness, though, and that’s why I bumped her to number three on the list. She dies to three-damage burn spells, which are the core of any burn players’ strategy. If you are playing her, make sure to wait a turn until you have four mana so she doesn’t die right away. When we think of her costing four mana instead of three, I think her power level drops quite a bit. Simic Nissa is still amazing, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she gains some value from her $15 current price point. The invocations will definitely keep her price down, though, so don’t get too many copies.

2. As Foretold

As Foretold
How many broken things can we do with As Foretold? The list is probably going to be long. I think this enchantment will form a new deck or different version of a deck in Modern, because casting your suspend spells for free is busted. We need some innovators to work with this card and break it, but it seems poised to be broken. Hold onto any copies you get of this card until we see what might happen with it.

1. Harsh Mentor

Harsh Mentor

Not too often do I pick a rare as the number-one spot on a top 10, but this time around we have Harsh Mentor. This red two-drop is so efficient in dealing with so many strategies. He harshly taxes many strategies in Standard, Modern and Legacy, and his $30 foil price indicates that players in Eternal formats agree with me. I think he’s all-encompassing enough to be played main deck in Burn, Zoo or even Death and Taxes. In Modern, he might slide to the sideboard, but it’s certain he will see play in these formats because of how punishing he is towards certain strategies.

Not every player will get their copies of Harsh Mentor right away, so I think this guy could follow the same type of price model as cards like Stony Silence or Rest in Peace. The difference, though, is that he’s a creature, whereas those are enchantments. That could make all the difference in how much play he sees main deck as opposed to being in sideboards. I definitely don’t think he will go down in value though.


 

Alright, well that’s all the words I have space for today. Next week, I’ll be breaking down some boxes and providing you some card distribution data and analysis for this set in my latest Box Report article, so stay tuned.

Also, I started a YouTube channel using my twitter name MtgJedi, and I will probably record the box openings as well and upload those. So, check out the channel and watch some prerelease vlogs as well as other future content. There will be some videos about Star Wars: X-Wing and playing Pokemon Go with my kids, so if you’re into those games as well, content will be there. There will be fun videos for three different games, so check out the channel and let me know what you think.

Financial Deck Tech: Merfolk

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I'm back again with another one of my world-famous financial deck techs! This week we're going to talk about Merfolk, one of the most competitive tribal decks in Modern. The deck is particularly topical right now, financially speaking, due to a recent announcement by Wizards. This is something you'll want to be mindful of if you were planning to buy in soon.

Overview

Merfolk is basically as old as time itself, but never seems to fade away. Although there haven't been any real additions to the deck in a few years, it is still a potent deck as the tidal shifts in the format seem to bring it back. That being said, it's a relatively straightforward deck that doesn't really see a ton of deviation in lists. For my stock list, I'm going to use Jonathan Zaczek's 2nd place list from GP Vancouver 2017 (you know, the one where Death's Shadow was a big deal).

Merfolk, by Jonathon Zaczek (2nd, GP Vancouver 2017)

Creatures

4 Cursecatcher
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Master of Waves
3 Merrow Reejerey
3 Harbinger of the Tides
2 Vendilion Clique
1 Tidebinder Mage

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

4 Spreading Seas

Instants

3 Dismember

Lands

12 Island
4 Mutavault
2 Cavern of Souls
1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge
1 Oboro, Palace in the Clouds

Sideboard

4 Tectonic Edge
3 Dispel
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Tidebinder Mage
4 Unified Will

Who Is Merfolk for?

Merfolk, while a lot of people will disagree with me, plays a lot like a green creature deck that plays a lot of basic Islands. It's not a typical blue deck from Modern because it eschews a lot of the trickery that usually comes with the color. There are no Snapcaster Mages, not a ton of counter spells, and a significant lack of big ways to recoup card advantage. Instead it tries to beat the snot out of your opponent with large creatures sometimes affectionately called "fishies." It can also sometimes end up playing a tempo game similar to a Delver of Secrets deck, but rather than fighting with instants and protecting a 3/2 flyer, it beats down with a growing number of creatures that support each other and disrupts the opponent with Spreading Seas and Cursecatcher.

This deck has some intricacies that will appeal to seasoned players but is also fairly straightforward at the lowest level to appeal to newer players. It's a deck that is fairly hard to hate out specifically so you won't have to worry about your opponents having a huge advantage over you after sideboard.

The Future of Merfolk

Merfolk is a deck that I'm not sure anyone can predict any changes to in the future. The deck is pretty tight (much like Storm) and there aren't really many creatures or spells that can come in the near future to improve its ability to beat down. Merfolk are not terribly popular in recent years' blocks so it's unlikely we're going to get more cards for the deck. As always, anything can happen in the next few months as we find out more information about the newly announced fall set, Ixalan.

As far as legality of the deck is concerned, I don't view Merfolk as a potentially game-breaking deck that could see a ban coming in the future. Generally, small creature decks are not at the mercy of a banning announcement. Merfolk doesn't have the dominance numbers necessary even for a conversation about bannings.

Merfolk's popularity definitely waxes and wanes when manabases are more easily disrupted. Decks that really rely on mana (like Tron, Valakut decks, etc.) are much better matchups than decks like Ad Nauseam and Storm, where most of your interaction needs to be with their hand and the stack. With a full set of Spreading Seas and Tectonic Edge in the sideboard, it's obvious to me that the deck can really take advantage of some bad mana.

The Core

Normally, the core of a deck is all of the cards that aren't replaceable—the absolutely necessary components that make it tick. Due to how synergy-driven Merfolk is, there are not a ton of flex slots in the deck. I would say the core of the deck you would need to play without a significant disadvantage is Aether Vial, Spreading Seas, Mutavault, Cursecatcher, Silvergil Adept, Lord of Atlantis, Master of the Pearl Trident, Merrow Reejery, and Master of Waves. I'm not a Merfolk expert, but my analysis of the lists suggests to me that there is some wiggle room on the other cards in the main deck.

Which Purchases to Prioritize

I decided this was a good time to write about Merfolk because we recently got some news that should give you pause if you're considering buying the deck. Wizards of the Coast recently announced some change-up to the product release schedule, including Iconic Masters in November and Commander 2017 in August of this year. Normally, you'd think that the Masters set is the one to be on the look out for, but I'm actually more interested in Commander 2017. This year there are only four decks (instead of five) that include a mix of new and old cards—but more importantly, the theme is tribal.

I'm a pretty big Commander player, so I feel I have some insight here. Although they haven't released any information about what tribes they're going to choose, I'm sure that Merfolk is one that was at least in consideration of some love. It's an extremely popular tribe that doesn't really have a good legendary creature to help center it in Commander. They could use this opportunity fill that hole and reprint staples like Lord of Atlantis, Cursecatcher, Silvergil Adept, and Master of the Pearl Trident.

If a precon includes one of each you'd be getting a minimum of $20 worth of cards in a deck that costs only $35. This might not seem like a great deal until you realize that often the rest of the deck will be worth far more than the $15 extra you paid. Sometimes the new Commanders themselves are worth more than that (Atraxa, Praetors' Voice, for example, is $20). Basically, I think it's worth hanging tight for a few months if you're not in a rush. I think there is a reasonably high chance that Merfolk is one of the tribes that gets picked and the upside is pretty high if they are.

While you're waiting to see if there are any creature reprints, I would recommend going out and securing your Aether Vials before they climb much higher. They've eluded reprint once again in Modern Masters 2017 and they're a purely competitive card that will have a hard time finding a spot in a more casual reprint product.

Past this, I would probably look to get Mutavaults squared away. While we are getting a tribal Commander set, where they could appear, we've seen other under-printed cards seeing heavy play increase in price after a reprint. The last Commander product had four-color decks, and only one of the five included a Chromatic Lantern. Chromatic Lantern dipped to about $5, but when everyone else realized they still needed one it went back up to $9.50. If there is only one deck with a Mutavault, we might have the same problem. Assuming the other tribal decks might want one too (like Elves or Goblins) then we could see a big rise in the card's cost. As for the Modern deck, Mutavault is too integral to the Merfolk plan to avoid playing them in your deck.

The last few cards you should work on are in the sideboard. Zaczek's sideboard only cost a whopping $13 total, so you can just cross that one off quickly—it doesn't look like you need terribly more than what that sideboard has to offer. If you want to invest in some more flexible pieces for other decks, you can also look into playing some Surgical Extractions, but honestly this sideboard is pretty straightforward, and I wouldn't mess with it.

I have also seen some sideboards with Chalice of the Void. If you're willing to own or already own Cavern of Souls, then this is a great card to help combat spell-based decks that otherwise give this deck a fit. Much like Aether Vial, Chalice has dodged another reprint this time around and I'm not sure it's "iconic" enough to be included later in the year.

Subsequent Upgrades

Some of the lands in this deck can be pretty easily substituted for basic Islands. Oboro, Palace in the Clouds, Minamo, School at Water's Edge, and Cavern of Souls are not integral to playing your game. They matter a ton when people are playing Choke but that card has mostly fallen out of sideboards at this point. If you know your LGS has a lot of people playing Choke, you can play Wanderwine Hub as $6 Islands instead of the $18, $19, and $45 Islands (the price tag of Minamo, Oboro, Cavern, respectively). Outside of the mana, however, there are not a lot of short-term compromises that you can make without sacrificing a ton of power.

Final Thoughts

Modern Masters 2017 prices have started to rebound and a lot of people seem to be upset. I'm not expecting another lull in prices until December, when players naturally sell off extra cards to pay for holiday gifts. Merfolk is a great deck to get into now since it wasn't expected to get a ton of reprints and the deck is naturally pretty cheap. It feels bad having to stomach the $9 it costs for a lowly Cursecatcher, but there might be some light at the end of the tunnel later this year in Commander 2017.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for April 26th, 2017

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerance and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 24, 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

apr24

This week, Amonkhet (AKH) has been added to the weekly prices. The TCGplayer prices are estimates only and the MTGO price is the sum of the sale prices that MTGOtraders had listed on its website just prior to the online release of the new set. Next week the reported prices will be developed in the same way as the rest of the sets. Finally, the prices were collected prior to the Banning and Restricted announcement on Monday morning.

The Banned and Restricted Announcement

With no changes to the banned list in Standard, WotC will wait to see how AKH shakes up the format before considering further shakeups. Aaron Forsythe revealed on Twitter that the scheduling of the banned and restricted announcement prior to the Pro Tour was intended as a way to impact the Modern metagame. But with Modern Pro Tours no longer a thing, perhaps WotC will return to one announcement per season. The next one occurs on June 14, about a month after Pro Tour Amonkhet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sensei's Divining Top

The banning of Sensei's Divining Top in Legacy will have a big impact on that format. Miracles was consistently the best deck in recent years, but it's essentially no longer playable without being able to rely on Counterbalance. For speculators, this is an interesting opportunity. Keep in mind that Grand Prix Las Vegas in mid June will feature Legacy Constructed. With a wide-open format, players will need to do extensive testing, so it's safe to expect an influx of players and tix into the MTGO Legacy market.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Merchant Scroll

An early potential deck to get new life is the High Tide combo archetype. It's possible High Tide moves into the space vacated by Miracles in the Legacy metagame. Merchant Scroll is a card I have bought and sold recently for the Market Report Portfolio, and it's a four-of in High Tide. With its price back down to the 2-tix level, I've started buying again. Since it is Modern legal, there's always a chance that the card starts to see uptake in that format too. Last thing to keep in mind about this card: it's managed to avoid being on the curated card list for Treasure Chests, which means its current supply is fixed.

Standard

We'll get a look at what the pros think of the format in a few weeks at Pro Tour Amonkhet in Nashville. We'll also see the first Star City Games circuit event this weekend. The usual pattern is for the Star City Games grinders to play the decks they are most comfortable with. This means that we shouldn't expect to see much innovation this weekend, but it will still be worth paying attention to for clues about the direction of the Standard metagame. At the moment, it's safe to assume continued dominance from Copy Cat and Mardu Vehicles.

Modern

Dredge has quietly made a comeback in the online Modern metagame, and I trace that resurgence to the addition of Vengeful Pharaoh to the archetype. This is a low-cost and effective way of fighting Death's Shadow that is unique to Dredge. It's fluctuated between 0.5 tix and 2 tix in the last year, but if it takes a foothold in this deck, look for it to start hitting higher prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vengeful Pharaoh

Prices on many cards from Modern Masters 2017 (MM3) have taken a hit this week. Scalding Tarn was over 20 tix last week, but today it is down to 16 tix. There will be ups and downs on these cards, so hardworking speculators should be able to take advantage of these fluctuations. However, if you don't have time to watch the tape all day, then the best long-term buying opportunity on cards from MM3 will not be until October.

Standard Boosters

Players are currently trading in their Kaladesh (KLD) and Aether Revolt (AER) boosters in order to join the AKH Draft and Sealed Deck leagues. This has put significant short-term downward pressure on their prices, as they are now 3.0 tix and 1.3 tix respectively, although prices have dipped lower than this.

This type of short-term behavior is typical around the release of any new set online as players do their best to keep playing without spending any extra money. Since the bots are set up to operate on low margins, they have to slash prices as players start selling their old boosters. This is where speculators have great opportunities for acting in a different direction than the market. When the market is selling off, it's time to be a buyer.

KLD and AER boosters will still be in demand until September as the alternative Draft format to AKH. As a cheap Draft format, these boosters will be in demand from budget-conscious players. There will also be players that don't like AKH Draft or just want some variety. I anticipate Draft sets of KLD and AER to sell for about 9 tix before long, so buying now for about 7 tix is a good place for speculators to move some tix into.

With the removal of Shadows Over Innistrad (SOI) block Draft queues, prices on SOI and Eldritch Moon (EMN) boosters have begun their descent. SOI boosters are close to their price bottom as they are already under 1 tix, which is a price usually reserved for boosters from sets that have rotated out of Standard. Although I would not recommend buying SOI boosters, it's not correct to sell these, as there is very limited downside at current prices. EMN is a different story, though, with a price that is over three times higher than the expected value of its booster contents. Look for EMN boosters to come down below 2 tix over the coming months.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent purchases, please check out the portfolio. Prior to the release of AKH, I sold down all my copies of Vendilion Clique. This is a card that I had bought last year when the flashback draft format was Lorwyn (LOR) and Morningtide (MOR) draft.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vendilion Clique

Although I had to be extremely patient with this card, it had been creeping higher for months now and was firmly in profitable territory. The trigger for my sales was when I noticed that the Modern Masters 2015 (MM2) version had dropped by a couple of tix and the bots were well supplied with this version. Heading into the release of AKH, I'd expect the prices to normalize and head lower with the MOR version the one to drop in price.

With a little over twenty copies in the portfolio, I was able to sell most of my copies at a price I was happy with. The trick is to identify the bots that are buying at good prices and to sell a playset or two to multiple operators. By spreading your sales around, you'll be able to sell your copies before an individual operator drops their buy price.

As Good as Allowed: Testing Assault Loam

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As I said last week, an opinion is worthless without evidence. This means that I have to actually test whether my initial opinions about Amonkhet cards are valid. I am starting to think I need to keep my pen quiet more often, as this is now a much bigger project than I envisioned. Last week I tested out Gideon of the Trials; this week, the cycling lands.

I was very skeptical of these cards in my spoilers article. They just didn't look good enough, especially compared to the Onslaught lands. Having spent the week experimenting, I stand by that skepticism. Not that it will affect things; players want some form of Loam to be a good deck, so they will try to make it work. The problem is that I haven't seen evidence that it will be worthwhile. There is certainly power available, but I believe that Wizards designed these lands with Life from the Loam in mind. Specifically, they were looking at the old Loam decks that frequently dominated Extended. This resulted in the new cycling lands being designed to make Loam interesting, but not actually great. I think this better for Modern overall, if disappointing for enthusiasts—and those who bought Loam at speculation prices.

A History Lesson

Yes, another one. The only way I can explain my earlier statement, and ultimately why Sheltered Thicket and company aren't good enough, is by examining the history of Life from the Loam. As far as I'm aware, it never made much impact on Standard but proved a force in Extended. Loam decks were the Jund of their day, and more—combined with Forgotten Cave and Tranquil Thicket, these decks generated as much card advantage as pilots had mana, allowing them to crush other fair strategies. And this was a time when the best hoser available was Leyline of the Void!

The first deck to take advantage of the Loam Engine, as I will call it henceforth, was CAL, popularized by Olivier Ruel. An archetypal cross between prison and fair combo, CAL used Dark Confidant and the Loam Engine to feed Solitary Confinement, which protected you until you found the game-winning Seismic Assault. I remember the deck as being extremely powerful and frustrating to play against, but it was also hard to pilot. CAL rewarded tight play and severely punished misplays. As a result, it was very popular with the pro community, though few others, until decks adapted and invalidated Solitary as a protection spell.

After that, numerous Loam Engine decks continued to thrive, with Aggro Loam being the one most remember. A classic midrange deck, Aggro Loam abused Life from the Loam as not even the combo decks could, thanks to Devastating Dreams. Armageddon plus Wrath of God for two mana is absurd, but the card's irksome symmetry clause had restricted its viability until it was combined with Terravore and Life from the Loam. the Vore was an overwhelming threat post-Dreams and Life ensured that you always had fuel to play and recover from Dreams. There were numerous variations on this strategy, and they were all successful until Onslaught block rotated out of Extended.

Modern Loam

Life from the Loam has never been as good since. It remains a powerful engine card, but nothing matches the old Loam Engine. It's like taking a supercharged V8 engine and removing two cylinders. It may still be a good engine, but it is noticeably worse. Many tried to keep Loam decks going in Extended, and many more have tried in Modern, but they're just not good enough. No, Dredge doesn't count. It uses Loam, but it doesn't abuse it. Loam's just another dredger there, and not an engine the deck is built around. Raphael Levy has had some success with various Loam strategies, but that's probably because he's Raphael Levy. Dedicated Loam strategies don't make the tier rankings for a reason.

The work done so far to make Loam Loam again has been the product of nostalgia and hope. Loam is on the edge of greatness, but lacks the consistency to get there. Also, Modern is much faster than Extended. Loam decks always play for longer games, a historically unwise strategic tactic in Modern. With the new cycling lands and Modern slowing down, many now believe that the Loam engine has returned.

Power Tests

I am actually in a quandary about this next section. I tried out a number of decklists, carried out several experiments, and yet I'm having difficulty actually explaining the results. My problem is that there really isn't anything quantifiably wrong with the new engine. It just... feels wrong. The results of my experiments say that the new cycling lands boosted my test decks over their previous iterations. Not by much, but by enough to notice. The data's clear on the spreadsheet. There is a slight uptick in consistency and win percentage, attributable to cycling finding me business more often than before. The problem is that actually playing the decks tells a different story. While the overall win rate went up by a small amount, I was losing more close games than before, and my long-game win rate was unchanged.

Adding cycling lands, specifically Sheltered Thicket and Canyon Slough, allowed me to cantrip through my deck to smooth out draws and turned into a powerful grind engine alongside Life from the Loam and Darkblast. However the decks felt clunky and poor. I don't know why, but the older lists played better. I don't know if this is a problem inherent in the new engine or just the unrefined decklists, but it felt bad to play the new Loam engine. And then there are the problems with the strategy exogenous to the deck.

Comparing Loams

I think the best example for my problem is a side-by-side comparison. I tested a known Loam deck with and without cycling lands to see how it performed. For this test, I used the following 2016 list from Raphael Levy. Not necessarily because I think it's actually good, but because more recent lists are derivative of his work, as mine was when I actually tried to build my own decks. I also wanted a deck made by a player I recognized, and my (cursory) research didn't turn up anyone else.

Jund Loam, by Raphael Levy (Test deck)

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Squee, Goblin Nabob
3 Vengeful Pharaoh
2 Golgari Brownscale
1 Golgari Grave-Troll
1 Stinkweed Imp

Enchantments

4 Zombie Infestation

Instants

1 Ancient Grudge
3 Darkblast
1 Lightning Axe

Sorceries

3 Conflagrate
4 Life from the Loam
4 Faithless Looting
1 Lingering Souls

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
3 Ghost Quarter
2 Blood Crypt
1 Blighted Fen
1 Tectonic Edge
1 Mutavault
1 Mountain
1 Forest
1 Swamp
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Temple Garden

Fitting in the cycling lands was trickier than I expected. It is generally unwise to fiddle with a manabase crafted by a master, especially when you've arbitrarily decided to put in six new cards, but I had to have an experiment. In the end I made the following changes and ran with it:

-1 Blighted Fen
-1 Tectonic Edge
-1 Mutavault
-1 Blood Crypt
-2 Wooded Foothills

+3 Sheltered Thicket
+3 Canyon Slough

I didn't actually test these decks against anything. I just goldfished to learn how the decks operated. One thing I found was that the best use of the cycling lands was to get extra dredges in a turn, and I rarely wanted to just draw cards with these decks. This is a feature of the deck rather than something intrinsic to the Loam strategy, and I imagine that in a grindy midrange shell you would just draw cards with Loam.

However, I don't think that is necessarily optimal. The problem I had was that playing the Loam engine encouraged me to slow down, and I'm not sure it was correct to do so. Without Thicket and Slough, Jund Loam felt like a grindy aggro deck. With them, I was encouraged to try and play a longer game. And this made the deck clunkier somehow. Maybe it was because I just made the mana worse, but having the cycling lands meant that you could do less in a turn if you were trying to make the engine work. It made little difference if you didn't try to actually use the Loam engine and just played the deck as if it didn't exist. This leads me to believe that the new cycling lands are considerably worse than the old Onslaught cycle.

Consider this: It is turn four. You have four mana, Life from the Loam in your hand, and three cycling lands in your graveyard. If they're Sheltered Thickets, you can play Loam, then cycle one card. If they're Tranquil Thickets, you can cycle twice. That is either an extra card or an extra dredge. This effect keeps snowballing as the game goes on. The new lands cost too much mana for what they do. Two for a cantrip is an awful lot. Think Twice sees play thanks to flashback, but all the other playable options are creatures. I believe this engine is too inefficient compared to the old one to be viable.

The Big Problem

The deckbuilding and gameplay problems I detailed above are substantial, but they may be something players can overcome. What they cannot fix is Dredge. As I was testing my Loam lists, I kept asking myself why I wasn't just playing Dredge. Loam does many of the same things as Dredge; it even plays most of the same cards. So is it actually better than Dredge? I still don't have a definitive answer, but I doubt it. Ultimately, I think that this question will be the real reason that Loam decks don't remerge. Dredge has a lot of things that make it a more attractive option for graveyard shenanigans.

Why Dredge is better

The short answer is speed, or rather explosiveness. Dredge is capable of generating incredible board presence in the first few turns, which is why you play the deck. Yes, it can grind, but that isn't its Plan A. Playing Prized Amalgam over and over is good, but playing three on turn two is much better. Dredge gets a lot of free wins as a result.

This will never happen in Loam. You will always have to work for your wins. This means that you are giving your opponent the opportunity to play Magic. The more you let your opponent play the game, the more likely it is that you will lose. Loam doesn't let opponents play much Magic, but it lets them play considerably more than Dredge does. When your deck has vulnerabilities, like I detail below, this is a problem.

There's also the fact that Dredge utilizes its graveyard better than Loam. The cards that you are playing to facilitate the Loam Engine will just be more potent in a dedicated Dredge deck. There are cards in Loam you'd rather not dredge away. That will never be true in Dredge. These decks are very similar, but Dredge is more extreme, giving it the advantage.

Also, I mentioned that using Thicket to get an extra dredge from Loam was good. Consider doing that with Stinkweed Imp in a Dredge deck. More lands in the graveyard may be good, but I can't imagine that's better than having more recursive threats.

Also, Splash Damage

And then there's the impact that Dredge has on the format. Graveyard hate is a way of life now, and that is very bad news for Loam. Dress it up however you want, but Loam is an engine deck, and its engine needs a graveyard to function. Back in Extended, the hate consisted of Tormod's Crypt, Yixlid Jailer, and Leyline of the Void. Crypt could be overcome, Jailer was fairly soft hate, and Leylines are only good when they start the game in play. It's easier for a graveyard engine deck to dodge or overcome these cards. Today, Scavenging Ooze, Relic of Progenitus, and Rest in Peace are everywhere, all of which present more persistent disruption and are far more potent. Dredge demands that you play these cards, and all other graveyard decks get caught in the net. Given this fact, I just don't see Loam making a comeback.

One of the big problems with Loam is that it depends on its graveyard to be a deck. Go back up to the lists I posted. The decks can't do anything under Rest in Peace. The fair plan is too poor to carry you to victory. Dredge can avoid the problem by being explosive. Other graveyard decks like Abzan Company or Living End can simply be creature decks and plausibly win. Hate hits the current crop of Loam decks too hard for it to be an attractive option.

This Seems Deliberate

I cannot imagine that Wizards did not think about Loam when they designed the—they need a nickname. Bicyclers?—bicyclers. Yes, Mark Rosewater says they don't let the past dictate future design decisions, but the memory of Extended Loam had to surface at some point. As far as I know, the design of the cycling lands has never been discussed publicly by R&D, but I think that the cost was increased compared to Onslaught's because of Loam. They remembered how dominant it used to be and decided that wasn't acceptable. They certainly succeeded if that was a goal.

Don't Lose Hope

While I don't think the cycling lands are the solution to the woes of Loam hopefuls, that does not mean that it cannot work. Shadow of the Grave looks far more promising as a payoff card for Loam decks. Rather than looking for a somewhat clunky value engine, perhaps Loam should return to its roots as a combo/prison deck. I have tested nothing yet, but the potential appears much higher than my previous work. Building around Shadow also allows you to differentiate yourself from Dredge and avoid that problem with Loam. It is worth exploring.

Insider: Anticipating Iconic Masters

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Can there really be too much of a good thing? Well, with the release of a second Masters set in 2017, we just may find out.

I loved the release of the first Modern Masters back in 2013—the Modern format was on a meteoric rise and card prices were getting out of hand. There was just no way original supply on key Modern staples would have kept up with rising demand without massive rises in price. And while I think the card selection in Modern Masters 2015 had flaws, the reality was that more reprints were still needed. This is evidenced by the peak in Tarmogoyf’s price to over $200!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

But it was around this time that I think Wizards made a step-change in their reprint strategy. After 2015, it would have been logical that a new reprint set would come two years later, in 2017. Instead we were surprised by an announcement of yet another Masters set in 2016: Eternal Masters.

Okay, so maybe these would be annual events. I think a Masters set every year will drain the well far faster than every other year. But by expanding options beyond just Modern, it meant a much wider selection of cards could be reprinted. Perhaps it would be sustainable.

Now in 2017 we have two Masters sets! We just had the release of Modern Masters 2017 (a success, I would say) and Wizards announced the release of a new celebration set in Iconic Masters. This reprint set will follow formats of all the previous ones: $9.99 MSRP, only a couple of languages, limited printing, etc.

Can the market really withstand this many reprint sets? What can we expect from Iconic Masters? What are the safest investments to make in 2018 and beyond? These questions are the ones I will attempt to tackle this week.

Highest Risks for Iconic Masters

We already know these reprint sets can apply a lot of downward pricing pressure on the cards in the set. It doesn’t matter how in-demand these staples are, prices will inevitably drop when supply on the open market suddenly rises. Even the fetch lands haven’t been immune to their recent reprints in MM17.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

Scalding Tarn is a perennial, multi-format all-star yet it has dropped from $80 to low $60s so far this year. I’m not sure if there’s more downside in store, but a 20-25% drop is quite the haircut. And that’s one of the most played cards in the reprint set. Something like Damnation, which never sees play as a full four-of, has dropped even further.

So when looking ahead to Iconic Masters, we need to once again consider what cards are prime targets for reprinting in the set. We all know classic favorites like Serra Angel and Shivan Dragon will show up, but these aren’t financially relevant. There are a few cards that do stand to lose significant value upon a probable reprinting in the set.

My top guess for a reprint would be Mana Drain.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Drain

This is one of the most expensive cards that’s not on the Reserved List. Given its age, I’d wager a handful of folks didn’t even realize this was an uncommon and not a rare. At $200, this would be an amazing chase mythic to include in Iconic Masters in order to boost sales of the product.

Given that this card sees play in Vintage and Old School—two formats with a minuscule player base compared to Modern and Standard—a reprint would really pull down this card’s price. While the original Legends printing will hold a premium, I’m not going near this card even though I’d really like to have a couple for my Old School deck.

I also see Umezawa's Jitte and Rishadan Port as attractive inclusions. Putting these both at mythic rare also makes sense. But again, any influx in supply of these cards is likely to outstrip demand fairly quickly. You may even consider selling these before Iconic Masters spoilers begin. They have a long way to fall.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rishadan Port

Other attractive inclusions to improve this set’s EV are Crucible of Worlds, Jace, the Mind Sculptor (again), and Force of Will. These are all worth over fifty bucks.

Flight to Safety

A number of vocal members of the MTG community started spreading rumors that Iconic Masters could be a surprise way to unveil the repeal of the Reserved List. Wizards of the Coast quickly put that rumor to rest with a single, elegant tweet.

Tweet

As an investor in MTG, I applaud this declaration and deem it necessary in order to maintain trust with the investing community. This article isn’t going to delve into whether or not the Reserved List is bad for Magic. I’m just sharing the tweet to emphasize the security of the Reserved List, and I want to strategize investments appropriately.

With a number of valuable, iconic cards likely to get a price chop, we could easily see a flight to safety. Folks with many high-dollar cards may choose to consolidate their collection further in order to avoid the risk of reprints. There’s no need to look far and wide for good targets; Wizards of the Coast already summarized the safest MTG investments in one convenient list.

Once again I’ll state that as long as the game of Magic remains healthy and growing, bets on Reserved List cards are about the safest investments you can make. The more iconic, the better. Power, duals, Old School, Vintage, and Legacy staples are all prime targets that offer plenty of upside with minimal risk. As the game ages, these cards will become ever more scarce.

Imagine the state of these cards should Magic be around for another 25 years. Can you predict how expensive some of these cards would be? Of course, it’s impossible to project that far out. But it’s not completely out of the realm of possibility given Magic’s existence has already lasted nearly 25 years. And I suspect it won’t take that long to see significant gains in this subset of the MTG market. Even five years will bring with it appreciable returns.

A Related Observation

You don’t have to stop your search at the Reserved List. Any cards from around the time of Magic’s inception (namely Alpha and Beta) will continue to be attractive investments. It’s baffling to think about how few of these cards exist among the entire population of MTG players. Just 1,100 copies of every Alpha rare exists in the universe. That’s just 275 playsets!

Beta prospects aren’t much better, with only about three times the print run. Indeed, even the least desirable bulk rare from Alpha will probably be more expensive five years from now simply due to its rarity and collectibility.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Helm of Chatzuk

Want even more compelling data? Well, check this out. I created an account with MTG Stocks a while ago so I could track some of the “noisier” prices—these are prices that fluctuate drastically due to lower stock on TCG Player. While the data is indeed bouncy, there’s one trend that does hold. Just see for yourself: the below picture is the weekly “Interests” for last week when you activate Alpha and Beta cards on the site.

Interests

Need I say more? Everyone is so fixated on new cards, Modern cards, and even mainstream Old School cards that they forget about the classics. Since Alpha and Beta don’t show up on the Interests page by default, I bet many people don’t even realize how expensive these classics are becoming. Is Beta Contract from Below really $60? If Near Mint, then absolutely—SCG is sold out at $49.99. Not sure I can explain Uthden Troll, but I’m sure there’s a good reason for the move.

Granted, when I scroll down to the bottom of the list, I see many Alpha and Beta cards dropping by more than 10% over the past week. This is normal volatility for these cards given their small stock. But this emphasizes my point more than it detracts from it: Alpha and Beta cards are extremely rare and there are surprisingly few for sale on the open market. This trend will only magnify over the next umpteen years that Magic exists. These will always be some of the most investible cards from the hobby.

Wrapping It Up

Massive reprint sets are here to stay. It’s clear that Wizards of the Coast has seen positive financial results from creating them, hence why they’re becoming an annual event. Now with an excuse to launch a second reprint set in Iconic Masters in 2017, Wizards is pulling out all the stops on reprints. They recognize the value of the player base who enjoys the older cards, and they are striving to sell us as much of this product as they can.

However one general truth remains: the Reserved List. It’s not going anywhere. That means as the game ages and prices on reprinted cards drop, more value will flood into the un-reprintable market. The more useful the cards, the higher their price ceiling.

Beyond the Reserved List, other classic cards continue to offer low-risk returns as collectors pick up the remaining copies on the open market. I fully expect there will come a time when many Alpha and Beta cards simply won’t be available for sale at a reasonable price. This trend has in fact already begun: I count six cards from Alpha that are completely out of stock on TCG Player. I’m sure there are also another handful of cards where there is stock, but pricing is significantly higher than what the market is willing to pay at this time. Five years from now, expect this gap to worsen. It’s inevitable.

To prepare yourselves for another 25 years of Magic, I highly suggest you include a couple key Alpha and Beta cards in your portfolio. It doesn’t have to be the four-figure cards; any reasonable rare will do. If you don’t get them soon, there may come a time in the future when it will be much more difficult to acquire them at a fair price. This is the trajectory I see—you’ve been warned.




Sigbits

  • Alpha Nevinyrral's Disk was one of the cards completely gone from TCG Player. A quick search at Star City Games reveals zero copies as well, with a price tag of $499.99. I guess if you’re willing to shell out $370 you can buy an SP copy from eBay. But pretty soon sellers will be able to dictate whatever price they choose on these cards due to their rarity.
  • It seems there are fewer dual lands on Star City’s site than there once was. I remember seeing dozens of copies unsold at inflated prices. Now something like Underground Sea is very low in stock. Right now SCG has 11 SP copies ($299.99) and 6 MP copies ($249.99). Volcanic Island is even sparser.
  • I saw Star City Games had restocked a single copy of Three Wishes for $0.49. This is that random Visions rare that spiked on MTG Stocks not long ago. I think the next copy they relist will be at a higher price, but time will tell. It seems like the price on this one is sticking. And why shouldn’t it? It’s a Reserved List card, after all!

Insider: Undervalued Presale Cards in Amonkhet

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It's Amonkhet time! I have mixed feelings. The set looks pretty good and has a cool feel and flavor to it. With that being said, I don't feel blown away by it. I think we are pretty clearly taking a step back from the extremely high power level of Kaladesh block, which is probably smart. I mean, it isn't always great for the game when bannings are necessary.

With that being said, the set looks like it has a lot of interesting modal and grindy things going on. There are a lot of cards that can be played from graveyards and a lot of weird cog-type of cards that look like they could potentially enable new decks and strategies down the line. We may need to wait for the second part of the block to fully realize what is going on.

I think the biggest "bad taste in my mouth" about Amonkhet is that Vehicles and Copy Cat still currently exist and are going to make it very difficult for these new cards to make a serious impact in Standard. I mean, the more I start brewing with the set, the more I realize these cards do not beat Saheeli. There is always a chance that we'll see a ban—but for the time being I'm trying to take in what I see and judge it on its own merits.

There are a lot of obvious powerhouse cards in the set, and for the most part the presale prices reflect the obviousness of these cards. As a finance guy, I rarely care about the good cards out of the gate because they are always heavily inflated by the overwhelming demand.

Instead, I try to focus on cards that feel underappreciated in terms of demand compared to how good they potentially are. Today's article I'm going to give you my side track on the cards that are potentially overlooked and undervalued for the time being.

Channeler Initiate

channelerinitiate

Mana creatures are always a big deal. In Magic, the only thing that really matters is mana and efficiency. Cards are basically "good" or "bad" based on how they allow players to effectively generate advantage based on mana production. Obviously, it is more complicated than one sentence—but, as a general rule, the best cards are hyper-efficient with regard to how they allow a player to effectively generate and spend mana.

I'm always going to be interested in evaluating a new mana creature. Channeler Initiate is actually pretty decent as far as 2cc mana dorks go. True, two-cost dorks are worse than one-costers, but since there are no one-costers in the format such a comparison doesn't matter.

We can directly compare this card to Servant of the Conduit. Servant has the advantage in an energy-based deck, but Channeler could have lots of applications in other decks. For instance, I might rather play this card in a BG Winding Constrictor deck. I like how in the midgame, once I'm done using it for mana early, it becomes a respectable threat. I could see this card having actual Standard applications. It's pretty cheap right now; it might be worth picking up early on.

Drake Haven

drakehaven

In the abstract, this is a powerful Magic card if you can use it to make a slew of 2/2 flying tokens. It generates a ton of card advantage, and those tokens both block and win the game.

I'm looking at interactions with madness or discard outlets. Noose Constrictor's free discard outlet can translate into a lot of Drakes for a pretty cheap cost. I also think this card could do some things in a Modern Grixis deck. Liliana of the Veil, Street Wraith, and Raven's Crime are all potentially abusable ways to generate advantage from the spell.

It's basically a bulk rare but it feels like the kind of card that could be the lynchpin for a new deck. I'm not saying that it will be able to compete with Vehicles or Saheeli. However, if those cards were to magically disappear from the format, something like this could easily become a player. It is a better Magic card than a lot of people are giving it credit for.

Dread Wanderer

dreadwanderer

Don't ever scoff at a one-drop because they are the bread and butter of Constructed Magic. Dread Wanderer is a potentially good one. It has a couple of things going for it. First, it is pretty decent as far as one-mana 2/1s go. Second, it's creature type of Zombie is relevant.

Relentless Dead is another card that could potentially benefit from some of these new Zombie synergy cards. The deck was really missing a card like this and it could easily become a thing at some point. These are a solid pick-up while they are floating around in the bulk price range for now.

Glorybringer

glorybringer1

I feel like this card is really powerful. A 4/4 flying haste that can also function as a removal spell. It has kind of a planeswalker vibe going on.

True, it will be tapped down for a turn, but maybe that is good on certain boards. At the very least it is good to have options. I could certainly see this card being better than the very small hype it has gotten.

I also noticed there are quite a few good "Red Deck Wins" cards in the set and this could certainly be a nice top-end finisher for an aggressive red deck. I like that it brings the beats but also has additional value in a grindy game based more on attrition.

At the very least, I could see myself playing this card. At current prices it's potentially underrated and underappreciated.

Harvest Season

harvestseason1

The ability to generate multiple Rampant Growth effects with one card is nothing to overlook. There is a tension between wanting to have multiple creatures on the battlefield and be ramping which is why the card hasn't blown up yet. Ideally, you'd want enough cheap creatures in play to cast this spell for big value relatively early.

A couple of things to think about:

1. Mana creatures. Harvest Season doesn't require creatures that attack. We can pair it with mana dork creatures like Channeler, Hedron Crawler or Servant of the Conduit, which contribute to a ramp strategy. In this sense, the card actually has some synergy. The question becomes: is this just worse than Explosive Vegetation? The answer depends on how much value we can get.

2. Tokens. One way to generate a lot of value might be to utilize this card in a token-based deck. Since tokens typically come at a rate of two or more creatures from only one card worth of investment, it could be an easy way to generate an absurd amount of value from Harvest Season.

I also see this card as a straight-up Commander staple, especially in token strategies. Foils on this card are probably going to be solid gold.

Never // Return

neverreturn

I don't get why this is a bulk rare. I think it's better than Ruinous Path. The problem with Path is that you want to cast it early to interact with the board and the upside only comes when you draw it super late in the game.

Never // Return can be thrown away early to interact, and the value is waiting for later when you need it. Its also kind of cute that you can Return to exile your opponent's Never // Return. I think this will be a card that sees a lot of play—especially with Gideon such a force in Standard.

Regal Caracal

regalcaracal

I think this card is better than people give it credit for. In case it hadn't crossed your mind, this card is very good with Felidar Guardian. Blinking it for two more tokens and making the Guardian into a 2/5 lifelink is pretty gross.

Regal Caracal is already a good control card and could easily make its way into a Jeskai Saheeli shell. It's also pretty great to copy the Caracal with Saheeli. This is a Constructed card that probably already has a tailor-made shell... Doesn't feel like junk to me.

Shadow of the Grave

shadowofthegrave

I'm not always high on "cog" cards as investments, but this one feels really suspicious. It is the kind of card that exists because you are supposed to build a deck around it.

I've looked through the spoiler and don't feel like the complete deck exists yet—but keep in mind there's will be another set based around cycling cards on the horizon. There is also the chance of some sort of a Legacy Fluctuator deck that could work with this card.

It's also worth noting that this triggers off discard of any kind, which gives the card potential synergy with Seismic Assault or discard-for-value strategies. Clearly a combo card that could be quite powerful somewhere.

Throne of the God-Pharaoh

throneofthegodpharaoh

Last but not least, Throne is another card that I feel could be very real in Standard. It can potentially deal a lot of damage for just two mana. It is kind of like a Hellrider that doesn't die to removal and costs half the mana. The best part of Hellrider was always the pinging ability, and this card provides it on the cheap.

I'm pretty excited about Throne in aggressive decks for Standard. Nobody has talked about it much, but I could see this being quietly one of the most important printings in the set.

Conclusion

I do love to pick cards off the scrapheap to invest in, and today's picks are certainly that logic put into action. As always, the upside is high and the cost tends to be very low. These are the cards that people are not currently looking for and have low starting values, which means there is a lot of room to grow.

I'm looking forward to the prerelease and these are some of the cheap cards that I'll be looking to trade for in the coming weeks. Enjoy the set and the events! Let's hope we have a fun new Standard on the horizon.

HareruyaWayfinder – AKH Edition

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I'm sure many of you are aware of the #Saitowayfinder/#KenjiWayfinder decks of the past. They have since been updated for the last sets to #HareruyaWayfinder. These are brews provided to us by Hareruya English early on when every set is fully revealed. Here is the Amonkhet Brews, plus some Modern Brews including AKH:

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Insider: QS Cast #61.5: Insider Only – AKH Preorders

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Play

The QS Cast has returned: Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil continue on with where the cast left off and in this episode they discuss the following:

Note: This was an informal cast recorded along with Insiders in the Discord Channel.

  • Chaz discusses his AKH Preorder experience and trying a new method.
  • Reversing the method of Pre-orders may open new possibilities as an individual seller. It's much akin to being a large vendor, in providing quick evaluations and prices for cards even before they're in hand or purchased like before.
  • Discussing these key points:
    1.) Keep listing numbers manageable.
    2.) Focusing on rares over mythic is easier to maintain.
    3.) Evaluation and pricing quickly and how being first can pay off.
    4.) Fulfilling all the orders despite losses, maintaining overall profitable margin across more listings.
    5.) Selling one listing and moving on is better than sitting and fighting under-cutting competition.

Specific cards we discussed:


As always, please comment and leave questions for us to address on the next cast! We will be making QS Insider questions a priority, and we want to know what you want covered.

Enjoy! We’re glad to be back.

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG  @the_tark

Insider: Cubing with Amonkhet (as Inexpensively as Possible)

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Greetings! It's been a while since I've written an article for Quiet Speculation, but I've been working quietly behind the scenes to help ensure the content on the site is getting better all the time.

You clicked on this article, so you already know we're talking about Cube cards from Amonkhet today. I'm an avid fan of Cube, but unlike many who make it a challenge to get rare, foil versions of every card, I'm working from the opposite perspective: I want to get the cheapest playable version of cards, whether that means picking up moderately played non-foils at discounts or getting high-quality proxies for thing like duals and Power.

When a new set comes out, I identify the cards I'd like to get for my cube and take a look at current prices. Then I set rough price and timing guidelines for picking them up.

I'm also coming at this from a Powered Cube perspective, where we're looking to do some of the most broken things each color has to offer. There are commons in this set that look like they would be great in pauper or peasant cubes (which I will refer collectively to as "C/Ubes"), and creatures that would be perfect fits in tribal cubes. I'll call these out as I see them, but my focus is going to be on the most powerful cards in this set—the ones that have a chance of breaking into the 450 I've selected from among Magic's best cards.

No more intro; let's go.

White

Angel of Sanctions

Angel of Sanctions is undoubtedly good. At this mana cost, it's competing with the likes of Baneslayer Angel, Reveillark, Cloudgoat Ranger, and Wingmate Roc. This could absolutely end up being as good as any of those, so I think it's definitely worth testing.

Its current price is about $6. If it starts seeing play in Standard, this could go up. Taking a long view of things, though, this isn't going to catch on in Modern or Legacy, and it's only going to be okay in Commander. After leaving Standard, the only draw this will have is for collectors of Angels.

I personally don't love this card enough to pay $6 just to test it in my Cube, so my goal price is going to be $1 to $2. That could happen while the card is still in Standard, but I'm comfortable waiting as long as it takes to hit that price. This card looks good, but it's not so crazy that I must have it.

Aven Mindcensor

I don't have this in my cube, but it's a decent hate card that could easily be included in one's list. This is your opportunity to pick up the reprint in the $1 range, which is pretty great when you consider it was previously over $10.

Devoted Crop-Mate

This isn't going to make the cut in Powered Cube where it's competing with the likes of Brimaz, King of Oreskos, Blade Splicer, Flickerwisp, and Monastery Mentor, but this could be a decently powerful piece of a C/Ube. Creature recursion is no joke, and white aggro is always a thing where it's wanted.

Gideon of the Trials

This is fine. It's probably really good, even. I'm just so bored with Gideons that all kind of do the same thing. The low casting cost could indeed make this the best one yet, but man, there are so many planeswalkers in cubes these days. My cube is already eight percent planeswalker.

I'm just in no hurry, especially at $25. I'd be happy to snag it in a trade if the opportunity arises, but I'm more happy to just wait until this is $5 to $10; again, even if that's in two years when it's no longer in Standard. Your mileage may vary, but when it comes to this cube, I'm playing the long game here and not trying to needlessly dump cash on cards that will plummet anyway.

Glory-Bound Initiate

This is powerful card that will deserve some testing in white weenie strategies. I'm not making any sweeping declarations, as I think exert looks kind of bad, but this particular card has potential. Less than $2 isn't a bad price, either, so I think it's justifiable to grab this whenever.

Oketra the True

If there's one thing I learned from the Theros gods, it's that you have to play with them to see how good they actually are. Cards like this, with big stats matched with big clauses to make them active, are just too hard to evaluate accurately without experience. For this reason, I don't currently have strong opinions on any of the Amonkhet gods other than that I am skeptical but curious.

I'm not setting any acquisition goals for these at this time, but I'm looking forward to seeing how they play once they're added to the MTGO Cube. I will say that I cautiously think these look better than the Theros gods, but that's not saying much, as even the Theros gods I currently have in my cube are underwhelming (except for Keranos, God of Storms—that's guy's nuts).

Regal Caracal

This could be situationally better than Baneslayer Angel or Cloudgoat Ranger, but I really don't think it will usually be better. This strikes me as a card that you put in your cube until you find a better five-drop to replace it. That's still valuable for those of you still working on a list, though! It's certainly cost-effective to pick up, right on its way to bulk-rare-dom.

Dusk /// Dawn

I think these cards are hideous, so even though this seems reasonably powerful, I'm not playing it. I'm not telling you how to think, though, so if you can stand to look at this, give it a shot. It's already less than a dollar.

Blue

As Foretold

This card looks cool, but I think it's going to be too slow. I would be happy to be proven wrong. I'm not going to be acquiring this card until I am proven wrong, though. Certainly not for $13.

Censor

There is a lot of competition in cubes for counterspells. I play sideboard-free drafts (to avoid piles of cards sitting around everywhere) in my playgroups, so I don't personally run Force Spike or Mana Tithe at this time, as those are cards you often want to sideboard out after your opponent has seen them.

To that end, Censor isn't going in my list any time soon, but this is certainly a card. My skeptical side says that a Force Spike that costs two just isn't good enough, though, even if you add cycling. I don't know; I think it would be cool if this was good.

Hieroglyphic Illumination

Great for C/Ubes; it won't be cutting it in ones that include rares. It ticks the "card draw" and "versatility" boxes I love so much, though.

Illusory Wrappings

Probably worth consideration for C/Ubes, and an argument could be made that this is better than Imprisoned in the Moon, given that ramping your opponent is likely better for them than providing a chump blocker.

Kefnet the Mindful

See what I had to say about Oketra. Drawing cards and having a big hand is certainly appealing; I'll give it that. This is the one I'm most hopeful for, which seems to be the opposite opinion of the rest of the community as this is available under $5.

...

So, blue offered pretty much nothing to Cube in this set, but given this historic power of blue, cards always have a much higher bar to clear. This has happened before, and it will happen again.

Black

Bone Picker

Black can be taken a few different directions in Cube. There are some lists that support a self-sacrifice theme in black, where this card would be at its best. In my cube, where black is primarily focused on reanimation and being a control support color, this isn't making the cut.

Bontu the Glorified

See what I said about Oketra. This is the one I'm most skeptical about.

Dread Wanderer

Black aggro is also an option for Cube. There's a whole bunch of two-power black one-drops at this point, and this will assimilate easily into that group. Again, this won't be going into my cube in its current iteration, but I've got all the black aggro cards on standby, so I'll need to be picking this up at some point. A dollar or less is my goal; this kind of creature is easy to find these days. If it sees Standard play, I might have to wait, but that's fine.

Liliana, Death’s Majesty

Like most planeswalkers, this one would be fine in Cube. I have to admit, though: I still don't own either Liliana, Heretical Healer or Liliana, the Last Hope, and those are just straight-up better. I'm sorry, but this card, like Gideon, is boring and just like all the other Lilianas that preceded it, and is just not going to be a priority for me. At five mana, this isn't even going to come down consistently early to do broken stuff, which is what Powered Cube is all about.

All that being said, this is obviously a fine card, and if I stumble into a cheap copy or a decent trade, I'll be more than happy to own it and likely include it in my list, but I'm honestly feeling a combination of boredom and overwhelmed by all these Gatewatch planeswalkers lately. Give me some instants and sorceries to be excited about instead, Wizards. That's what I really want.

Lord of the Accursed

Tribal Cube alert. If you support Zombies, you probably want this. The end.

Never /// Return

Despite thinking the aftermath cards are aesthetically horrendous, I have to recognize the value this one offers. Can I get over its ugliness? If so, I'd be looking to pick it up for $1 or less, and hey, that's where it is now.

Red

Harsh Mentor

We made it all the way to "h" before I found something worth mentioning in red. If this was three power, it would be a snap-include. As it is, I guess we're wondering if this is more likely to perform as an Eidolon of the Great Revel or if it will be a rarely activated hate card with not enough power to compete. The hype is clearly strong with this one, and at $7 I'm staying far away. This is a rare, man. It will be a $1 or $2 before long.

Hazoret the Fervent

See what I said about Oketra above. This strikes me as the easiest to activate in the group and could be pretty nuts in mono-red if that is the case.

Soul-Scar Mage

You can't see this and not consider its similarity to Monastery Swiftspear, but will adding wither to your burn spells while giving up haste put this at the same level? My guess is it will be worse, but it could still very well be worth a spot. At nearly $3 right now, I'm not a huge fan–I think this will be readily available for $1 or less before long.

Sweltering Suns

Do you play Pyroclasm or Anger of the Gods in your cube? You could consider this as an additional or replacement option for a red sweeper. I could see this being better than Anger in most situations. The price is right to try it out at just about $1.

Green

Champion of Rhonas

Most of these exert cards seem average at best to me, but this one could do some pretty broken things. Think of all the fatties available in green. You'll have to protect this for a turn or find a way to give it haste, but it's not unreasonable to ramp this out on turn three and then have a Woodfall Primus on four.

It's the whole, "protect it or give it haste," that makes things questionable and possibly not good enough to make the cut. It certainly doesn't pass the vanilla test; not in Cube, at least. I'd be looking to get this at bulk pricing for testing. If it proves itself outside of my testing, I'd consider a higher price.

Channeler Initiate

This card seems pretty strong. Let's compare to Sylvan Caryatid: we lose the ability to block early 2/2s or dodge targeted removal, but we gain a relatively strong beater by the mid- or late-game. We also lose the ability to make mana after three shots (sans additional manipulation), which could be bad if you need to keep making mana.

This is a strong card, but I think that Sylvan Caryatid is better in most cases. Channeler Initiate is clearly not going to replace better mana-makers like Rofellos, Llanowar Emissary or Lotus Cobra, but I could see it getting a spot over something like Sakura-Tribe Elder or Wall of Blossoms.

For a card that will probably see play in Standard, just under $3 may be reasonable if you want to get a copy before it rotates. I also don't think it's so insane that I need it before rotation, so you could go either way on this one.

Manglehorn

This card is strictly better Uktabi Orangutan unless you're supporting an Ape tribal theme. Are you doing that? I didn't think so. It's pretty cool to get cards that are straight upgrades, and I think this one is very well positioned to find a spot in many cubes.

Prowling Serpopard

I don't think this really good enough for Cube, at least Powered Cube. Thrun, the Last Troll is already pretty borderline, and I just don't think counterspell protection is worth playing an otherwise vanilla body in green where we want to play either mana dorks, value creatures, or fatties.

Rhonas the Indomitable

See what I said about Oketra above. This one makes me yawn the most of the five. It's just big numbers, pretty much. Boring.

Vizier of the Menagerie

This makes me think of Courser of Kruphix and Oracle of Mul Daya, but I think in reality it is far worse. Playing lands off the top is awesome and free. Seeing a six-drop on top when you have only five lands is just going to be painful. I'm not ruling it out just yet, but despite my initial reaction being, "Daaaaaaaamn," I think there's a good chance this won't make the cut. It's certainly not going to make the cut as an unproved card at $7.

Multicolored

Nissa, Steward of Elements

I'm not into this one too much. It doesn't protect itself and none of its abilities are all that crazy. Unless a cube is specifically multicolor-focused, multicolor cards have extremely high barriers to clear to make the cut. Currently I'm running Edric, Spymaster of Trest, Trygon Predator, Shardless Agent, Mystic Snake, and Kiora, the Crashing Wave. Nissa is not displacing any of those cards, so yeah, I guess I might target this for my on-deck binder at $5 or less, but even that is a "meh."

Samut, Voice of Dissent

This is a lot of abilities on one card, but again, multicolored cards have a higher bar to clear, and I don't think this will clear it. There's also the complication that this is technically a Naya card, which might trouble some people who care about color balance (I am one of them). I don't care what the price is; this card needs to convince me that it's worth it before I make any moves.

Artifact

Throne of the God-Pharaoh

This could be a pretty brutal card in aggressive mono-red or mono-white decks, which are both supported in my Cube. It lacks versatility, which is a huge knock against it, but I had to list one of the artifacts to justify that "Artifact" heading, so here it is.

Land

Fetid Pools Irrigated Farmland

These are snap-includes... once the cycle is complete. I personally cannot fathom including a dual-land cycle that is only half complete, so as much as I love these cards and think they will be a perfect fit with the fetch-dual-shock manabases I'm currently supporting, right now it's just a waiting game. I'll be looking to pick up my copies for $1 to $2, and there is absolutely no rush, because it could be years until we see the rest of these.

Grasping Dunes Cradle of the Accursed

Ever since Wizards printed the colorless symbol in Oath of the Gatewatch, I've been collecting playable colorless lands to potentially support those cards in the future. These are very minor effects, but you don't need something huge from your utility lands to make them good. These are not making the cut any time soon, but I am looking to acquire them for my on-deck binder.

Conclusion

This was long, so let's be quick on the wrap-up. As you will see, I'm not bullish on many cards in this set—this is typical, because most new cards aren't worth being bullish on. There will be a handful of cards that go up in price, but most will go down. Always keep this in mind. There's no reason to overspend except for hype, and the safest thing is to assume that everything is way too expensive.

Want to praise me for nailing the cards you also like from the set? Want to curse my very name for leaving your pet card off the list? Want to debate with me about my feelings on a particular card, mentioned here or not? You can do all these things and more, right down below in the comment section.

Suspend Your Disbelief: Branching Out with As Foretold

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Two weeks ago, I considered As Foretold's applications in Modern control decks. My starting points were Pillow Fort and UB Control, but by the end of the article (and, incidentally, the time I prepared to publish it), I'd turned my attention to integrating the Amonkhet highlight into Modern's longest-standing control deck: Jeskai. Over the past two weeks, I've tried a number of more traditional control shells with As Foretold, and have been impressed by my findings.

This week, we'll look at my new blueprint for building reactive blue decks with As Foretold and check out the two decks I've spent the most time on lately.

Building an As Foretold Deck

To succeed, As Foretold decks must benefit immensely from resolving the enchantment, but not auto-lose when they fail to find one. After all, Modern's a format known for Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, and Surgical Extraction; with a little resolve, keeping an As Foretold player off their namesake card can prove just as easy as attacking a linear deck. Perhaps fortunately, there are few enough worthwhile payoff cards in Modern (read: highly impactful, manaless suspend cards) that stuffing our deck full of the best As Foretold enablers still leaves plenty of room to win in other ways.

Ensuring Survival

To win, we have to not die. As Foretold decks are incentivized by Restore Balance to go very light on creatures, meaning they need plenty of removal to survive against creature decks. Cheaper removal like Bolt, Push, Path, and Condemn are the most appealing options; one-mana spells play nice with As Foretold and allow us to spend more mana cantripping.

Targeted discard can also disrupt opponents long enough for our gameplan to come online. Inquisition of Kozilek seems better than Thoughtseize in the mainboard. Since the purpose of these slots is to weather early assaults, the card that doesn't help opponents kill us but forces us to take the things we want anyway is the clear favorite.

A third way to ensure we resolve As Foretold fast enough is to ramp into it. Since we can't play mana dorks with Restore Balance, I think the best way to unlock this achievement is with Modern's most divisive monkey, Simian Spirit Guide. Guide also has the benefit of fixing our curve if we want to focus on one- and three-drops, which As Foretold also incentivizes us to do. And if we're also using Guide to ramp into heavy-duty disruption like Blood Moon, we stand to buy ourselves even more time.

Maximizing Consistency

Modern's best-known consistency method is redundancy—if you want to draw a certain card, play a lot of copies. We can only play 4 As Foretold, though, so once we've maxed out there (and on our suspend spells) we must turn to cantrips to help smooth out our gameplan.

Serum Visions is Modern's king cantrip, so it's an easy include at 4. Sleight of Hand is a little more questionable, but I have found it to be terrific in these decks. Playing the full 8 blue cantrips makes our As Foretolds much more consistent, in addition to helping with land drops and disruption. Getting the card right away also works well with an active As Foretold.

In builds splashing red, Faithless Looting is also worth considering. Looting digs us into two new cards right away and gives us a way to ditch dead cards. We can even use it twice! The card's drawback is that casting it forces us to go -1. I don't think that's such a big deal, though, thanks to Restore Balance. In fact, having a way to rapidly dump cards from our hand is something of an upside, since it allows us to hellbent opponents off a Balance if needed.

Closing

Board wipes definitely buy time, but we still need to win. Being forced to wait five turns to draw into a win condition after removing all the creatures can put us into some bad spots if opponents follow up with individual threats. Burning bad Balances on those creatures can be brutal for us, especially if we have lots of cards from a last-turn Visions or want to spend our As Foretold casting a this-turn Visions. The most elegant solution to this problem is to simply start pressuring right away after we clear the board, forcing opponents into a defensive role once they've been declawed.

Creature win-cons are off-limits in a Restore Balance deck, although Bolt-Snap-Bolt is a plan creature-light enough (and enough in line with our other goals) to do some of the work. As I found a couple weeks ago, planeswalkers make the best win conditions. The trouble is finding one that can win the game fast enough. I maintain that Nahiri, the Harbinger is the ideal walker to pair with As Foretold, but forcing us into Jeskai colors (and an Emrakul) is a serious deterrent to running her. Creature lands are also interesting, with Creeping Tar Pit striking me as the most reasonable choice.

The Core

These days, I start all my As Foretold decks like this:

As Foretold Core:

4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand
4 Restore Balance
4 Ancestral Vision
4 As Foretold

Then, based on the interactive color I'm in, I'll add some other staples.

  • Red: Lightning Bolt, Faithless Looting, Chandra, Torch of Defiance, Greater Gargadon
  • Black: Fatal Push, Collective Brutality, Liliana of the Veil
  • White: Path to Exile, Condemn

It might go without saying, but As Foretold decks will have to dip into one or more of these three colors to function. The Simic combination simply doesn't have enough efficient removal to survive the early turns, even with Restore Balance as a mid-game plan. Besides, what green cards would we even want?

Of red, black, and white, red boasts the most perks. The color has a win-condition walker, powerful cantrips, and the most flexible of Modern's one-mana removal spells. Lightning Bolt makes Snapcaster Mage a serious consideration, as having reach gives us a way to milk its 2/1 body for more than value. Looting gets us to mana, disruption, As Foretold, or suspend spells right away, helps us hemorrhage cards for Restore Balance, and flashes back from the grave to fix crummy Ancestral Visions. And Gargadon gives Restore Balance a whole other angle of attack by tacking Armageddon onto its text box.

Black comes next. Liliana of the Veil is the scariest planeswalker in Modern, and a nightmare for fair creature decks and critical-mass combo decks alike. Unfortunately, she won't end the game on her own—if only she had Liliana, the Last Hope's ultimate, instead!

The biggest draws to black, though, are Fatal Push and Collective Brutality. Push is simply Modern's MVP when it comes to staying alive on turns 1-4, making it a perfect fit for this deck. Similarly to Looting, Brutality gets along swimmingly with Restore Balance, and also lets us do way more than we should be able to for the mana we have available. Catching up on tempo is crucial in a deck casting tons of cantrips and a three-mana enchantment. While Restore Balance helps here by coming down right away, it doesn't hurt to have an additional "card sink" for while we set up.

White offers by far the least of the three colors. While Path to Exile's drawback is negligible in a Restore Balance deck, giving opponents lands early can still bite us in the butt. Besides, the creatures we need to remove early can often be killed with Bolt or Push. Restore Balance tends to take care of the more resilient threats opponents can produce in longer games, making unconditional removal spells unnecessary.

That removal suite is still one of the color's upsides. While playing multiple one-mana removal spells usually forces us into three colors (i.e. Grixis for Bolt and Push), white has two superb options in-color: Path and Condemn. Going UW allows As Foretold players to run a high density of one-mana kill spells without asking much of their mana base. Another draw is white's unmatched sideboard selection, including the almighty Rest in Peace, a card As Foretold strategies can accommodate at no cost (Snapcaster Mage isn't a core choice).

Full Moon Rising

We've covered how I approach As Foretold deckbuilding. Now, let's get into some lists!

UR Suspend, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Simian Spirit Guide
2 Snapcaster Mage
1 Greater Gargadon

Enchantments

4 As Foretold
3 Blood Moon

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Mana Leak

Planeswalkers

2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
3 Sleight of Hand
4 Restore Balance
4 Ancestral Vision
3 Faithless Looting

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents
5 Island
2 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Spreading Seas
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Pithing Needle
2 Negate
1 Dispel
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Shattering Spree

Here's my take on a Spirit Guide-featuring As Foretold deck. Guide helps power out As Foretold, Moon, and Chandra early. As with Looting and Brutality, the card disadvantage of pitching a card to make a mana is grossly offset by the advantage gleaned from casting Ancestrals for zero and Restore Balance at will, plus Guide offers free wins when it accelerates out a hate piece.

I wanted to build an As Foretold deck in UR that could take advantage of Blood Moon. Amazingly, the deck actually started without Guide. I added the monkey to fix the curve, which was far too focused around the three-drop slot. Mana Leak also made the cut as a two-of for this reason; it gives us something else of value to do on turn two.

To make room for the pair of Leaks, I had to cut a Sleight of Hand. Looting is usually better in this deck, although we rarely want to draw three copies thanks to flashback (which is why I kept it below 4). Its cycling effect ends up psuedo-drawing us more than two cards most of the time, as we can drop extra Moons, Guides, or As Foretolds to it. Running lock pieces that do nothing in multiples make our discard-as-drawback spells much better.

We only play one Gargadon because it's basically just dead in multiples. We can cycle extras away to Looting, sure, but we really want to be drawing interaction or acceleration in the early-game. Having dead Moons or Guides is much more forgivable because the first Moon we draw slows our opponent down enough that we can stabilize or find a Looting, and the Guides we draw get us to a game-state in which we don't care about some virtual card disadvantage. But drawing multiple Gargadons early without a way to loot them away results in a loss against most of the faster decks. Besides, our many filter effects help find the one copy when our plan is "blow up all the lands." In those scenarios, the board is usually locked down, we have As Foretold on the battlefield, and are just chaining cantrips.

This deck has a couple of weaknesses. For one, it can struggle with enemy Tarmogoyfs (and, by extension, Death's Shadows). Moon helps against the Goyf decks, but they usually pack a good amount of discard, so it's not unheard of to lose to a 4/5 after our combo pieces get Inquisitioned away. We sorely miss something like Fatal Push here.

Second, UR has trouble closing out games. Chandra, Torch of Defiance is great, but since we can't have multiples on the board, we can't run too many in the deck. Creature lands aren't an option either, since we want to play Blood Moon. I even considered a Stormbreath Dragon despite its expensive mana cost to help with this problem.

Usurping Tasigur's Throne

The next step I took was to splash black, essentially dropping Blood Moon to shore up both of the UR deck's weaknesses.

Grixis Suspend, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Greater Gargadon

Enchantments

4 As Foretold

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
3 Fatal Push

Planeswalkers

2 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
2 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

4 Ancestral Vision
4 Restore Balance
4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand
3 Collective Brutality

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Polluted Delta
2 Creeping Tar Pit
2 Darkslick Shores
1 Spirebluff Canal
1 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Spreading Seas
2 Negate
1 Spell Pierce
1 Dispel
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Kolaghan's Command
1 Fatal Push
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Thoughtseize

Liliana and Push give us way better chances against Goyf decks, Death's Shadow Jund included. Those matchups become favorable with the Grixis build. Collective Brutality is another piece of high-impact disruption. It does cannibalize Faithless Looting's required resource of "cards to spare," so the cantrip gets the axe and we go back to 4 Sleight. Brutality is just way too good in this deck (and in Modern generally) to pass up; I have liked all three copies.

With Push in the mix, we have enough juicy targets to want to max out on Snapcaster Mage. 4 Snap, 4 Bolt is a real plan, and complemented by Chandra and Brutality, it becomes even better. This Moon-less deck gets Creeping Tar Pit, which deals plenty of damage and is very tough to stop when we strip an opponent's hand with Brutality and Restore Balance. Greater Gargadon also goes to two copies in this build, giving us yet another way to win the game.

Sans Looting, this version has less dig than UR, but it's better at disrupting opponents (we'll have time to naturally draw into what we need). As a result, I think we want that second Gargadon. We love seeing the Beast once most games, and don't have to worry so much about clogging while getting attacked, as we have more ways than UR to remove opposing threats.

And the Brew Goes On

I think I'm on the right track with these As Foretold brews, but I don't know how close to optimized my lists are. I'm excited for the card to become legal and for other deckbuilders to start experimenting with it. In any case, I won't stop tweaking—attacking and blocking may have my heart, but there's no way I'm passing up the opportunity to write another 1,000 articles on a 2U mythic rare.

Insider: Magic News This Week Surrounding Amonkhet’s Release

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This week has been a big one in Magic finance, starting with the full Amonkhet spoiler being revealed last Friday and providing a complete look at the new cards, but things have only gotten more exciting since.

Iconic Masters and HASCON

On the topic of spoilers, one came a bit early this week with the accidental leaking of details about an upcoming special release, a set called Iconic Masters. After breaking on Reddit, it was widely shared on social media. Wizards fired back on Thursday with an official announcement for Iconic Masters, which corroborated the rumors and explained exactly what was going on. A celebration of Magic’s 25th year anniversary, it will include Magic’s most iconic cards.

“The set brings an array of Angels, Sphinxes, Demons, Dragons, and Hydras alongside some of our favorite and most memorable spells over the game's entire history.”

Each of these creature types corresponds to a specific color, so I expect the set will be filled with these types of creatures, perhaps solely these types, along with the best spells in each color. At $10 a pack, the set will need to contain serious value to make it worth buying, so I expect it to be full of casual and EDH staples and some high-value eternal cards, with anything not on the reserved list up for reprint.

The set is slated to be released on November 17, 2017, ahead of the holidays. It has been theorized that the release is actually next year’s special set, and it’s begining of the trend of these releases occurring before the holidays. If true, it implies we could see the next Modern Masters release as early as November 2018.

Iconic Masters isn’t having a typical prerelease, nor even a spoiler season. It is being unveiled in a special prerelease event at HASCON, a new convention Hasbro will hold for the first time at its home in Providence, RI, kicking off the 25th anniversary celebration.

Premier Event Changes

Wizards also made an announcement this week about changes to premier play. The biggest news is the return of the Nationals tournaments, which a number of years ago were ended in favor of World Magic Cup Qualifier events. The finalists at Nationals will be invited to their country’s national team to compete at the World Magic Cup, along with the player in their country with the most Pro Points as captain. The reason given for these changes is because it is what players demanded, so it’s a positive sign for competitive play that Wizards is listening to the players.

On the other hand, they also announced changes to Pro Tour, which will be returning to a traditional top-eight bracket after a short-lived experiment with a modified bracket, stating that it did little to eliminate draws. More relevant is the announcement of payout changes at the Pro Tour, which gives more money to the winner but less to the top eight. It has garnered ire from players, including a tweet stating the absurdity of the eighth-place finisher at a Pro Tour in 2000 earning more than a player finishing eighth under the new payout.

There are also changes coming to Regional Pro Tour Qualifiers, which now has a scaling invitation system tied to attendance. A bigger change is that tournament organizers may now charge an entry fee for them, which has drawn much negative ire from players. It’s a boon in disguise for the competitive player, as it should have the effect of making tournaments a bit smaller and softer.

Speculating on Amonkhet Release

I’ve seen more discussion than usual about speculating on preorders, and the best advice I can give is to focus on finding rares that aren’t being taken seriously enough, not on the headliner mythics. There’s just not much room to gain on a card like $10 Rhonas the Indomitable, even if it does become an all-star. Don’t speculate on expensive cards, but search for the underpriced gem. Good recent examples have been Dromoka's Command and Collective Brutality. From Amonkhet, Glorybringer was under $2, and is now up to $5. The biggest winner so far has actually been Insult // Injury, which was 50 cents and is now over $2.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Quillspike

The new combo with Vizier of Remedies has brought about a Devoted Druid spike, which has brought about a corresponding spike of a card Devoted Druid also combos with, Quillspike. Quillspike has seen two success spikes this week, from $1 to over $3. The has been a more dramatic spike for foil copies, which have grown from $3 to over $13. Foil copies of Devoted Druid have also grown more than nonfoil copies, and are up to $30. It’s a lesson to look at foils during spikes, especially because they are a more concentrated form of value and will require handling less cardboard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lodestone Bauble

Keep an eye on Lodestone Bauble, which saw a high-profile finish in a Japanese Legacy event in the Bomberman deck with Auriok Salvagers. The strategy is suddenly competitive because of how well Auriok Salvagers works for returning Walking Ballista, and how well that card works with the infinite mana the deck can produce with Lion's Eye Diamond.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vial Smasher the Fierce

Vial Smasher the Fierce is starting to rise in price after a slow decline, perhaps because it is seeing use in competitive Legacy decks, like the one shared in a video by Andrea Mengucci on CFB this week.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptolith Rite

Keep an eye on Cryptolith Rite. It is back in the picture for Standard consideration because of the possible return of Aristocrats-style creature decks, and for its great interaction with Harvest Season. Sam Black featured deck with this combination in his article on SCG this week and could be responsible for the deck breaking through at the Pro Tour, or at the very least highlighted its competitive potential.

--Adam

Insider: “Commonkhet” Set Review

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That's a good title, and you know it.

So I kind of do this every single set, and I've gotten a mostly positive response so far. For those of you who are new to Insider or to my content in general, I try to provide a comprehensive guide to all of the commons and uncommons that you should be saving and scavenging for at the prerelase this weekend. While there are tons of "financial set reviews" nowadays, they mostly focus on the chase rares, mythics, and Masterpieces in the set. This article is for the readers looking to maximize the value of every penny, and those who want to know which non-rares to set aside when cracking their boxes or cases. Even if some of the cards referenced in the article are only going to be dimes, I'm here to show you how to squeeze every ounce of value out of the set so you don't miss out on anything.

The cards I'm going to reference in this article fall into one of two categories. The first I'll call "blueprintable," named after the Blueprint owned and operated by Thomas Dodd of Card Advantage. If you have the free time and resources to set sort and alphabetize your bulk, here's where you'll get the most bang for your buck on all the 3- to 75-cent cards. These are the Soul Wardens, Vampire Nighthawks and Deathreap Rituals of the set. While Fatal Push is a known commodity, we're going underneath that.

The second type of card is more for the readers who need to build up their collections and don't have any intention of shipping 10,000 Magic cards across the country. These are for the player who doesn't own enough cards to fill a trade binder, but still wants to be able to maximize value in a room full of $1,000 decks. When I first started playing competitively, I ground out value at the LGS by learning that it's important to have the Hada Freeblades in my binder for the guy who needed them for his FNM Allies deck. (Yes, that card is a blueprint card today. In 2010, it was worth nothing). These are the Attune with Aethers, Glimmer with Geniuses, and similar Standard/EDH gems that players just don't have on hand but need now.

With the introduction out of the way, let's get going.

Amonkhet

 Cartouches/Trials

cartoucheofsolidarity trialofsolidarity

We're going in the order that Mythic Spoiler has listed, so I'll get this out of the way right now. I don't expect any of the Trials or Cartouches to be Constructed playable, and they won't find homes in the hearts of casual players either. I'm sure they play well in Limited and make the Sealed/Draft environments richer, but I don't plan on picking any of these out of bulk. I'll leave them for the Craigslist lots and bulk sales at the store.

Shefet Monitor

shefetmonitor

I had to read this card a few times before I was confident that it played the way I wanted it to. While I don't think Deserts will have an impact on Standard, this big lizard screams Commander playable to me. For those of you who like playing Krosan Tusker, I think you've found your permanent replacement. This thing puts the land into play for just one more mana, while also drawing a card. While I don't think this replaces Cultivate or Kodama's Reach in the more streamlined decks, it certainly has its own niche because of the body that tags along with its cycling ability. It slots into Animar, Soul of Elements nicely, and can simply be reanimated later. I expect this to be blueprintable for 10 cents in a few months, once people start to play with the card. If you need filler in your binder, you can easily throw this into a trade at 50 cents and grab a couple playable bulk rares.

Devoted Crop-Mate

devotedcropmate

I think this easily has the power level to see play in Standard, assuming some shifts happen to Disallow the Saheeli combo from competitive play. While I wrote about how I felt that Always Watching was a gimmick that I feel we should sell out of (and I still feel that we should be exiting that card and enjoying our profits), I also think this weenie is the kind of card that gives that deck an actual chance in Standard. And you know what? Even if it doesn't crush the top tables, you'll probably find a couple people at your LGS looking to build that exact deck. Have these in your binder on the same page as Always Watching and activate your inner salesperson.

Vizier of Remedies

vizierofremedies

Devoted Druid has everyone talking about this card, but I'm not expecting it to see play as a four-of or anything. It kind of adds another dimension to Melira, Sylvok Outcast in that deck, but those decks play Collected Company and Chord of Calling, so they don't need to play extra copies of stuff. Still, though, this could easily be the backbone of a budget Modern deck or have some casual attention. Keep them in your binder and move them at 50 cents.

Bone Picker

bonepicker

This is the "pushed" card of the set, that they intentionally made look strong to hype up the power level. Is it really the black delver? I have doubts, considering you can't cast it on turn one without significant investment or shenanigans (Walking Ballista for zero?!?! Valuetown..). These are pre-selling for $1.50 to $2, and I don't think this card is even a third as good as Fatal Push. It's also not going to be as good as Delver of Secrets, who is around the same price point with lower supply. Sell.

Bloodrage Brawler

bloodragebrawler

Competitively viable? Not while Fatal Push and friends are around. However, this feels like a very Vexing Devil-type card, where less-invested casual players look past the downside to dreams of slamming this for one mana off an empty hand with Ragemonger. Pick 'em, you'll be surprised how well these trade off or buylist in the future.

Hieroglyphic Illumination

hieroglyphicillumination

Google Chrome says I spelled that right on the first time. Hell yeah. I think this has legs, matching up with my belief that Drake Haven is an incredibly powerful card. It's a common, so you won't need to be buylisting these for anything more than a nickel, but just keep a playset in a sleeve of your binder for the player building the Drake Haven deck. I believe it could be a three-of; probably only a 3-cent card and not super worth blueprinting, but nice to trade out a set at a dollar.

By Force

byforce

Meh; I don't feel very strongly about this card, but it could be a sideboard player for red decks to keep a hold on Mardu Vehicles. Not super buylistable, but worth keeping an eye on.

Manglehorn

manglehorn

I like this one a bit more, because it also happens to get in the way of Saheeli combo. Of course its' utility gets lowered if Felidar Guardian gets banned, but you can bet that there will be players looking for these during the prerelease. You can probably trade one away for a few casual favorite bulk rares, even if it's not a buylistable card.

Lord of the Accursed

lordoftheaccursed

Uncommon Zombie lord number one billion! Obviously this isn't on the power level of Lord of the Undead or Death Baron, but I still expect it to find a home in many a casual deck. Probably doesn't see Constructed play, but most of the cards on the Blueprint don't. Pick these for sure.

Cast Out

castout

Not quite Stasis Snare, but you'll have people who want these as a catch-all answer. Not a whole lot to talk about, but I'd rather have these on hand than sitting in a 5k box when asked for a couple copies.

Censor

censor1

I think this card is criminally underrated, or at least it was when it was spoiled. While I know a lot of people were expecting Miscalculation 'cause nostalgia, this card is very powerful. It's already preordering for $1, so don't let people call it a bad Force Spike while expecting to get it off you for free. It's super bad in Limited though, so scour those draft tables for extra copies.

Nest of Scarabs

nestofscarabs

Honestly? This is hands-down my favorite card in the set. I loooove spreading -1/-1 counter shenanigans, and I have a Skeleton Ship Commander deck to show for it. Did you know Crumbling Ashes and Blowfly Infestation are worth a billion dollars each? Of course you do, you read my articles. What about Kulrath Knight? Yeah, I thought so. It's an uncommon from Shadowmoor, which means there are like nine copies in existence. Seriously though, this card will be worth 25 cents on the blueprint, easily. It won't reach the level of the others because of the difference in scarcity, but still.

Flameblade Adept

flamebladeadept

If the format gets turned on its head by a banning, expect aggressive decks to become favored in an unknown metagame. You don't get much more aggressive than this, and any deck running this wants four. Keep them put aside for the local mono-red player, and trade them at $1 to $2 a playset for relevant cards that could go up in price.

Sixth Sense

sixthsense

Want to know what Keen Sense is worth? It's like $2.50. While it jumped a few years back due to the cute use in Bogles, that deck has all but died out of the Modern metagame; we just don't see it anymore. Keen Sense has dripped down a bit to compensate, but it still gets a ton of love from casual players who want to draw cards by attacking with creatures. While Sixth Sense is slightly tuned to prevent silly shenanigans (Walking Ballista...), I still expect it to be blueprintable from a casual perspective. Not going to see Standard play either, which means you can probably find these on draft tables.

Magma Spray

magmaspray

Is it just me, or does it feel like this was just printed in Standard? Apparently the most recent printing was Journey into Nyx, but whatever. This isn't buylistable, but trade them at quarters to the people in the shop who didn't plan ahead and need them on that very night. It's just a nice thing to pull so you don't have to pay quarters yourself, even if you're just picking up a playset that you didn't acquire during Theros block.

End Step

So that's all for my common/uncommon set review. Did you see anything I missed? Disagree with one of my picks? Let me know in the comments section below. This is the first set that I'll be cracking a case of for my own personal sets, so I'll actually have bulk to pick through on release day instead of just waiting for others to sell me their bulk.

Brewing with Amonkhet’s Planeswalkers

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To celebrate the impending release of Amonkhet, I thought it’d be fun to put our brewing caps on this week. I’ll get back to metagame/decklist analysis soon, I’m sure, but recently I’ve been taking a look through the Amonkhet spoiler in the hopes of finding something that tickles my interest.

Overall, I haven’t been that enthused. From the looks of things, Amonkhet doesn’t have much to offer in terms of “non-combo” options. I’ve heard that As Foretold will bring with it some possible changes, but at this point in Modern’s development it’s difficult to make waves with new cards unless mechanics are involved. Delve as a mechanic was beyond busted, which is why we saw so many Khans cards cross the barrier. Having to fight fair against Terminate and Tarmogoyf is not impossible, but still incredibly difficult. Seeing as we just got Fatal Push, I wouldn’t be surprised if fair decks were left out in the cold for the foreseeable future.

Still, I can’t bring myself to be disappointed 269 times in a row, so this week I forced myself to take a few new cards and put them through the ringer myself to see if they work. It’s important to note that my expectations going in are not to come out the other end with a tournament-worthy deck, but I still intend on trying my hardest. While the end result might be considered a “failure,” if through the process we learn something about the format or our own biases, we can at least point to that as a positive. That being said, I give you: Planeswalker Control!

Four-Color Planeswalkers, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

4 Birds of Paradise
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
2 Felidar Guardian

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Condemn

Enchantments

4 Oath of Nissa

Planeswalkers

4 Gideon of the Trials
4 Saheeli Rai
3 Nissa, Steward of Elements
2 Nahiri, the Harbinger

Sorceries

1 Supreme Verdict

Lands

4 Windswept Heath
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Temple Garden
2 Breeding Pool
1 Steam Vents
1 Hallowed Fountain
3 Razorverge Thicket
1 Forest
1 Island
1 Plains

Sideboard

3 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
3 Timely Reinforcements
2 Negate
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Condemn
1 Engineered Explosives

The idea is simple enough: play enough planeswalkers that require attention that our opponent can’t devote enough resources to killing them all, thereby preserving our life total and getting us there via some ultimate. Gideon of the Trials can’t be ignored; with his emblem our opponent has to deal with him. His +1 locks down a permanent, so at worst he protects himself, and in combination with Jace, Vryn's Prodigy we can handle most boards. How we’re winning isn’t really an issue—as long as our walkers hit the field and we’re ticking up on our turns, we’ll be fine. I’ve also included the Saheeli Rai/Felidar Guardian combo, as the scry helps get us to whatever we might need, and Felidar Guardian can reset planeswalker loyalty or just net us another activation. Still, those six slots could easily be spent on something else, like more Nahiris and an Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, for instance.

We're not RW Control, so it makes sense to talk a little bit about identity. Stretching into red for Nahiri and Saheeli (mainly Nahiri) necessitates some help as far as mana as concerned, which is where Birds of Paradise and Oath of Nissa come in. Oath is deceptively strong, as it fixes mana and is definitely our green Ponder, but by playing these spells we resign ourselves to being behind on-board and weak to discard. Sixteen planeswalkers is a ton, however, so as long as we’re alive I doubt we’re having trouble casting spells.

Tarmogoyf is in here as a blocker, sure, but it can turn the corner with Gideon of the Trials in a heartbeat. The fact that we’re not playing him alongside sorceries like Traverse the Ulvenwald or Thoughtseize means we’re relying on our opponent to help him along. He's not as great as he could be, which I suppose I could say for most of the cards in the deck (which I again suppose means the deck is probably poor).

One last note before moving on: with Nissa, Steward of Elements, we’ve got a lot of scry, as well as ways to buy time to get us to what we need. It’s difficult for opponents to deal 20 damage through a ballooning Jace, Vryn's Prodigy or Gideon of the Trials. Most non-Death's Shadow decks rarely have more than five power on the board at one time, and factoring in removal and blockers, we can handle a fair amount of normal action in the combat phase.

Unfortunately, that sort of normal action is rare in Modern. Affinity makes giant dudes or slaps Cranial Plating on Etched Champion. Dredge floods the board repeatedly or just Conflagrates us to death with Life from the Loam. Zoo hits us for 14 on turn three. Death’s Shadow attacks for 10 at a time. While we’re set up to handle some of that, trying to defend against all of it (while also giving up our game ones against combo) is very ambitious.

Classic UW Control, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

3 Snapcaster Mage

Enchantments

3 Spreading Seas
2 Detention Sphere

Instants

3 Condemn
4 Path to Exile
1 Spell Snare
3 Cryptic Command

Planeswalkers

4 Gideon of the Trials
1 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Sorceries

3 Ancestral Vision
4 Serum Visions
3 Supreme Verdict

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Ghost Quarter
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Island
3 Celestial Colonnade
2 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast

Sideboard

2 Celestial Purge
1 Dispel
2 Kor Firewalker
2 Negate
3 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Vendilion Clique

On the other end of the spectrum is this, your classic, “take an established deck, shove four copies in, and call it a day,” decklist. Sure, I moved a few numbers around here and there, but I’m not even trying to hide that this is taken directly from the winning GP San Antonio list, which is a month old now. So why include it? Partly, it’s a critique on the notion that adding a shiny new card to an established list is more involved than just throwing it in, but also because underneath that, I do believe there is something here.

Gideon of the Trials paired with Leyline of Sanctity protects him from direct damage, meaning as long as we can protect him on the ground, we’ve essentially put our opponent in a soft-lock. Yes, Abrupt Decay, Maelstrom Pulse, and Detention Sphere can knock him out, but those cards see minor play so I’m not too worried. At worst, they get rid of our Gideon (either through a spell or attacking directly) and we gained a bit of life and/or made our opponent spend mana on something other than killing us directly.

The positives, of course, are numerous. Gideon locks down creatures until we can hard-answer them, and he starts swinging earlier than before (Celestial Colonnade doesn’t come online until turn six, and even then we’re putting our guard down to hit for four). He also helps our combo matchups tremendously, as Ad Nauseam needs to change something to handle this guy. The fact that Gideon costs three, can protect himself, can do damage as a Plan B, and can emblem to turn our opponent’s plans upside down (or go over them entirely) is well worth the three-mana investment.

Still, if I’m playing Gideon of the Trials as a central component of my strategy, I would be much happier if I had some bodies to throw in front of attackers past the first. Lingering Souls immediately jumps to mind, but isn’t entirely necessary. Removal and Snapcaster Mage are just enough to get our opponent to overcommit into a Supreme Verdict, which is really all we need to put the game away anyways.

Still, if I was interested in building a serious Gideon of the Trials control list from scratch, it would look something like this:

UW Gideon Control, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

4 Wall of Omens
3 Snapcaster Mage
2 Restoration Angel

Enchantments

2 Detention Sphere

Instants

3 Condemn
3 Cryptic Command
4 Path to Exile
1 Spell Snare
1 Logic Knot

Planeswalkers

4 Gideon of the Trials
2 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
3 Supreme Verdict

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Ghost Quarter
2 Hallowed Fountain
4 Island
3 Celestial Colonnade
2 Plains
4 Seachrome Coast

Sideboard

2 Spreading Seas
2 Timely Reinforcements
2 Negate
4 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Rest in Peace
1 Stony Silence
2 Vendilion Clique

This list, in my mind, is much closer to a dedicated Gideon of the Trials control list than the other. While that list contained stronger cards in the abstract (i.e. Ancestral Vision), this one focuses much more on synergy, while boasting the ability to turn the corner at the expense of late-game longevity. Moving Spreading Seas to the board is fine so long as we retain access to it for games two and three, as game one we’re not expecting to “get” anyone with the card so much as just looking to buy time. Wall of Omens does the same thing by giving us a body on the ground to get in front of attackers. Again, our plan is to make opponents overcommit into Supreme Verdict.

If they don’t play along, be it playing to the board or casting spells into Cryptic Command, Restoration Angel tags in to use some of that mana and present another body to attack or block. Turning the corner is less of a clichĂ© and more of a legitimate threat when we can flash in Resto, turn on Gideon, animate Colonnade, and hit for 11. If we can sneak in at least one Gideon hit before then, we’re killing our opponent dead, assuming they fetched a few lands or played a Thoughtseize.

The value that Gideon of the Trials gives a control strategy like this one can’t be stated enough. It bears repeating that Gideon has applications against both aggro and combo, represents a threat against control, provides a Plan B against all matchups, and generates a puzzle for our opponent to solve—all for three mana. Costing three means Gideon slides down on our early turns (where we’re really just looking to play anything we can) and forces opponents to overcommit into Supreme Verdict the next turn. I’m sitting here imagining if I would still be interested in the card were the ultimate a -10, and I believe the answer is yes. That alone should be enough evidence that we have something here.

Conclusion

We abandoned Nissa, Steward of Elements pretty quickly, but I don’t think that’s anyone’s fault. I’m much more interested at this stage in seeing what Gideon of the Trials has to offer, and it doesn’t look like the two will go together in Modern at this point. Nissa is much more interested in existing alongside creatures and big mana, while Gideon seems to play better with synergy. And, of course, the Bant deck of choice is Eldrazi. I’m sure there are applications for both cards outside of a control/midrange shell, but for now, on day one, that’s where I’m leaning. I know I'm among good company when it comes to Gideon of the Trials, but as for now, I'm believe my control list might have what it takes. Remember, if Gideon of the Trials breaks Modern, you heard it here first!

Thanks for reading,

Trevor Holmes

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