| Quiet Speculation

Insider: Cost of Doing Business, Part 3

Posted on April 7, 2015January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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First off, I’d like to thank my respondents for taking the time to answer my questionnaire. If you’re lucky enough to live in or near their location of business, definitely consider stopping by. Below is the list of my respondents and a link to their information. The idea behind this article was to ask actual brick-and-mortar store owners about the costs and challenges of running their businesses.

I think there are a lot of players who think "I have a bunch of cards and I like buying cards at 50-60% of their actual value, a store seems like easy money", however, I hope that the store owners' responses makes anyone thinking that reconsider. Not that they shouldn't continue forward if that is their dream, but if you don't have experience running a small business there's a lot of things you have to consider.

NextGen Trading: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Next-Gen-Trading-LLC/159055334116986?fref=nf

HobbyTown USA: www.facebook.com/HobbyTownUSALincolnNE

Lost Coast Wizards: lostcoastwizards.com

Ken Froth: Former Gaming Store Owner

How much MTG sealed product do you typically purchase in a given month (excluding prerelease/release months)?

NextGen: 6-10 Boxes on AVG

HobbyTown USA: We typically will keep approximately 18 to 24 of the most recent set and 6 boxes of the other sets on hand at a time. We usually go through 12 to 24 boxes a week total of in print boxes.

Lost Coast Wizards: I have a small store in a small area. I generally go through about 48 boxes of product per month.

Ken: Hard to say any more. Of course, half or so of all months are prerelease/release months these days, hehe. I tended to front-load my orders, so I would buy a LOT at the start then let it taper down and re-buy cases as needed. Depending on how much of a dog a set was, 1-2 cases a week.

What was the most surprising expense/cost associated with owning your B&M store that you didn't plan for?

NextGen: Overstock

Hobbytown USA: I was a part of the Franchise Home Office for Hobbytown before my wife and I purchased the store, so there weren't that many surprises. That being said, things like rent, business and worker's comp insurance and payroll and payroll taxes are all real things to be aware of and I don't think that many new owners of businesses really understand how much product needs to be sold just to pay to keep the doors open.

Lost Coast Wizards: I was very surprised to get hit by my county assessor's fees. I expected taxes but I wasn't prepared to pay that one. It took actually trying it to accept that loss leaders were a good thing. Paying out 100% of tournament entry fees as credit works very well for me. I get some people who pay off credit and go infinite, but many people will pay cash and it forces sales.

Ken: Chair breakage. A close second, professional accounting.

What cost hurdles did you face when you first started up?

NextGen: Bills. Need to build a decent playerbase to start making profits.

Hobbytown USA: We took out a very large loan to cover the cost of buying an existing store, so that loan was a huge burden for many years. Cash flow is something that is difficult to manage also. We are a large hobby, toy and game store and as such, there is an ebb and flow to the seasons of when certain product sells. Balancing cash flow and inventory versus the demand for product is something that is a constant struggle.

Lost Coast Wizards: I had a hefty collection to start with. I was able to liquidate a ton of MTGO redemption. All in all the costs were steep. Chairs, tables, large playmats, all the other bells and whistles add up. I have a cool display wall which I constructed. That took a lot of capital. All in all I would say that I started with around $12,000 worth of cards and about $10,000 cash. I have a small area. All the dice, sleeves and deck boxes add up to a hefty initial payment. Even the Point of Sales system will cost money up front.

Ken: None really, I opened the store with my own money as a second job while my wife and I worked full-time at a large company, so the normal monetary issues weren't there.

What day of the week do you typically see the most sales?

NextGen: Fridays and Saturdays

Hobbytown USA: Friday and Saturday are the busiest times of the week for us.

Lost Coast Wizards: I see the most sales on Saturday and Sunday. I close for Mondays so Tuesdays are pretty good for me as well.

Ken: Tuesday, because I was closed on Sunday and Monday and pent-up demand rushed in. But once I went to being open Monday too, I think Thursday and Friday, because that's when most events occured.

How do you keep “up to date” with the latest Standard/Modern/Legacy tech?

NextGen: StarcityGames and the Grand Prix circuit/Pro Tours do a nice job of that. Also MTGTOP8.com Shows the trends.

Hobbytown USA: Forums (QS, etc.), mtgstocks, vibrant community in store.

Lost Coast Wizards: I read the articles on Channel Fireball, TcgPlayer and look up metagame shifts on MtgGoldfish.

Ken: Watching event coverage, especially SCG and GPs.

What is the preferred format of your store and what challenges do you face keeping it thriving?

NextGen: Preferred format would be Standard, the challenge is how to be better then everyone else.

Hobbytown USA: We have a relatively robust MTG crowd so we do play a variety of formats. Standard is obviously the most popular and its popularity is really at the mercy of WOTC. For other formats like EDH and Modern, being able to offer them as formats for FNM has helped. Trying to have a once a month tournament for underserved formats helps keep interest in them.

Lost Coast Wizards: Draft, then EDH, Modern, Standard, Legacy Pauper. I don't support sealed tournaments currently. Pauper can fill some weeks and others I will have two players.

Ken: Modern at the end. Standard was taken over by the store in town that catered to younger folk by running free events and allowing proxies in anything not sanctioned. Players who keep playing Magic are often willing to play Modern, but those who play for a year or two usually only play Standard before they move on to do something else with their time.

What order (from least to greatest) are the following costs for you (no specific number is necessary, simply an order will suffice); rent, insurance, power, water, sewage, security, taxes, garbage?

NextGen: Garbage/Sewage > Security > Insurance > Water > Taxes > Power > Rent

Hobbytown USA: Garbage, sewage, water, security, taxes, insurance, power, rent

Lost Coast Wizards: Taxes, Rent, Insurance, Security then Utilities.

Ken: more or less in this order:

Rent has to be number one, any store having it be less is probably doing something illegal..;-)
(Next would be employees)
Electricity/gas (depending on the season)
phone (both business cell phones and land lines)
Insurance
Internet
Accounting services (not each month, but it averages out to this place monthly)
Security
Water/sewage are together in my town
Garbage is also technically related, but I did it with a close-by different business.
Finally taxes. I don't know if you mean sales taxes, which doesn't actually cost the store anything, or income taxes, which as an S-Corp the business technically didn't pay. That being said, in Illinois there is something called a 'replacement tax', which only hits S-Corps and is 1.5% of net profits. Which is pretty small in the great scheme of things.

Do you sell snacks/drinks in your store?

NextGen: Yes

Hobbytown USA: Yep

Lost Coast Wizards: Not yet. My store is just small enough that I would eat all the food. Once I get a bigger shop I will get a liquor license and start selling craft microbrews.

Ken: Ayup.

What percentage of your sales do you think goes to the “casual” crowd?

NextGen: 10%

Hobbytown USA: 50-60%

Lost Coast Wizards: I would guess that non-sealed product is around 80-90%. Most of the people buying singles are not coming in and playing tournaments. Most of the people playing in tournaments are ordering online. I can get some sales from online sources by offering specials, but non-foils are tough to sell to the competitive players.

Ken: Tons. Lots of Commander, kitchen table or league players. If we're talking about a percentage of 'card sales' I would say roughly half. My store was a full-line game store, so card games were only a part of it.

Have you found it more challenging to grow your business with the increased competition from online stores?

NextGen: Yes

Hobbytown USA: Not necessarily. We are very diversified so our entire breadth of product offering has allowed us to grow each year. MTG in particular sells so well that we have zero problem turning inventory. The downside to that category is that margins have eroded somewhat because of online.

Lost Coast Wizards: I started my business after the digital age. It hasn't proven to be much of a hurdle. I can't offer the lowest prices on Sealed Product but the instant gratification gets my margins. Getting people into the doors will get them buying product. This can help to sell product to the more competitive crowd. Again, using 100% payout store credit will get the competitive people in the store.

Ken: They have always been there really. Real online competition is fine, it's the guys who set up on TCGPlayer and constantly drive prices down in a race to the bottom that were annoying.

How much local competition do you face?

NextGen: 6 Other stores

Hobbytown USA: Zero in town for gaming.

Lost Coast Wizards: There are five stores which carry Magic products within a 15-mile radius. We serve a county with 135,000 people. There is decent competition but the stores are able to serve different crowds. We orchestrate our tournaments so that we aren't directly competing with each other. We try to keep things light and simple.

Ken: One store that is a Magic store only (well, and sports cards), but whose Magic sales are run by someone who tried to do internet pricing in a retail establishment. That has only worked (somewhat) because the other side of the business pays the real bills. But they do get large events, when they run free tourneys with $400 in prizes. People can be bribed to show up, who knew? 😉

Have you found it challenging to keep your stock levels sufficient (or where you want them)?

NextGen: No

Hobbytown USA: For singles, that is a constant, trying to maintain adequate stock levels to accommodate customer demand. We do go to TCG often to refill commons and uncommons that are popular.

Lost Coast Wizards: This is always a challenge for me. I haven't been open that long so building inventory is priority #1 for me. Sometimes I will have to let some stock dwindle in order to keep high stock of something else. I had to deplete a lot of my higher end cards in order to pay for this last round of product (DtK).

Ken: Not at all.

Do you vend at any events outside your store (GP's, PTQ's, SCG Opens, etc)? If so, what additional challenges do they add to your business?

NextGen: No

Hobbytown USA: Nope

Lost Coast Wizards: I haven't branched out into that yet. I am just now getting inventory and turnover rates high enough to warrant an online presence.

Ken: Never had time to.

What advice would you give any of our readers that want to open up their own B&M store?

NextGen: Be Prepared to compete with online sales and figure out what you want to do to be better then the next store. Be mindful to take what majority of people say with a grain of salt. Also whatever you think you might need to startup, double it. It’s a rough business to run and even though it’s not hard labor it can be very taxing on the mind. Organize everything as you go, don't let it pile up then try to go back, as it will take significantly more time. Unfortunately, as it is online sales is the way to go as it provides the extra income that you will need.

Hobbytown USA: Unless you are a very skilled business person that is well capitalized, it is difficult to move into the gaming space and make a go of it. The margins are less than they used to be. The MTG customer also is generally not very loyal and will chase the lowest price so you must win on price and selection. At this point, there are a number of very well capitalized businesses that are ran at a very high level. If you cannot beat the local competitor at price, customer service and selection all at the same time, then it is difficult to recommend going into this business unless you just want to do it as a hobby with the understanding that you will lose all your money. Then, you need to think about beating your online competitors.

Lost Coast Wizards: Don't be afraid. If there is a demand in your area, fill it. You can open a shoe string budget store and the players will react just fine. I serve people who have collections which would dwarf mine. But they don't have the want or the drive to open their own store. If you open a store, get an accountant on board asap. Youtube is your friend. Derium's TCG is a great place to look up information. Getting a distributor's list isn't easy, but it can be found on the WPN site. Getting Gateway certified isn't easy. They are going to ask for many pictures of the inside of your store. They also want pictures of the neighborhood and frontage. Then they will want more. WotC wants to see that you have a store in order to give you a WPN. But you have to have product in order to have a store... If you can get a distributor to back you then getting WPN is a lot easier. If one distributor won't back you, find another and then be loyal.

Once you have a WPN, pack as many people into your store as possible. Offer a free pack to each new DCI # you can register. Hold two-person queues to get the tournament numbers up. I like to offer a two-person at all times other than during scheduled events. They pay a pack and cost $1.5 per person. Again, get them in the doors and talking about you. If you don't have enough space, subcontract out with a restaurant. They love the extra business and will typically cover the insurance costs. I charge an extra $10 per head and they provide lunch before the tournament starts. This helps tremendously with achieving higher WPN.

Again. If this is something you want to do, do it. Nothing should hold you back. If you are always hearing people say they want more options, provide them. Don't go into debt right off. Make sure that you can sustain at least 4-5 months of bills without profit. Word of mouth is the best advertisement, but branching out to colleges and bulletin boards helps. Facebook is a great marketing tool. Make sure that you choose a catchy name. You want people to automatically think of you when they hear part of your store name.

Make sure that the person who interacts with the public (more than likely you) has good people skills. You don't want to scare off customers with a crabby staff. You don't want people who are playing Diablo 3 when they could be interacting with the customers. For the most part customers will take care of themselves, but when they need help (or pointing towards another purchase) you need to make sure they are comfortable.

Ken: Why? As in why do you want to? Also, what can you add to the local community? If your only selling point is price you'll only get customers who care about price, and eventually the internet can always be cheaper. Also, how long do you plan to do it, because if you want to build up to a good enough standard of living, look at how many game store owners you know and decide if that's what you want. It might be. But please, please don't go the way of the common 'I want to open a game store, how hard can it be?'. It's easy to open a game store if you get a windfall of cash suddenly, but it's really hard to keep one going. Cash flow isn't income.

Hope this helps. As I said, my store was a full-line store, so I sold collectible card games, board games, miniatures, RPGs and the like.

Tiny Tuesday- Sultai Poison

Posted on April 7, 2015April 7, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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With a starting life total higher than 20, it becomes attractive to try to win the game through something other than regular combat damage. I spent some time thinking about how to build an infect deck for Tiny Leaders, and a lot of the spells that you want to play are legal. The major problem is that none of the existing leaders provide any actual value to your strategy.

[ois skin="7"]

There is, of course, no existing leader for Sultai. The rules of Tiny Leaders let a player play a 2/2 for UBG with no text if they wish to play this color pair, and if you want to play a strategy that doesn't get any help from its leader you may as well play a leader that doesn't help anybody. Not to mention that this selection of colors gives you access to all of the constructed playable infect creatures.

This is the list that I've brewed up for Sultai Poison:

Tiny Poison

creatures

1 Necropede

1 Plague Myr

1 Rot Wolf

1 Plague Stinger

1 Phyrexian Crusader

1 Blight Mamba

1 Ichorclaw Myr

1 Glistener Elf

1 Blighted Agent

1 Snapcaster Mage

spells

1 Mutagenic Growth

1 Berserk

1 Duress

1 Inquisition of Kozilek

1 Thoughtseize

1 Abrupt Decay

1 Groundswell

1 Crop Rotation

1 Rancor

1 Invigorate

1 Vines of Vastwood

1 Ranger's Guile

1 Brainstorm

1 Wild Defiance

1 Distortion Strike

1 Daze

1 Ponder

1 Preordain

1 Might of Old Krosa

1 Gitaxian Probe

lands

1 Inkmoth Nexus

1 Polluted Delta

1 Misty Rainforest

1 Scalding Tarn

1 Flooded Strand

1 Wooded Foothills

1 Verdant Catacombs

1 Marsh Flats

1 Underground Sea

1 Tropical Island

1 Bayou

1 Breeding Pool

1 Watery Grave

1 Island

1 Pendelhaven

1 Forest

1 Swamp

1 Bloodstained Mire

1 Command Tower

This deck eschews some of the most expensive cards that you'd find in typical Sultai decks that make the Sultai leader inaccessible for many players, such as Dark Confidant and Tarmogoyf. I think that Snapcaster Mage is too good to cut, but it's not entirely at home here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

I don't play an Overgrown Tomb in my list, as the Golgari land is much less important than blue lands, but you want to be able to fetch for one land of this color pair. Realistically you could cut all of the revised duals and play Overgrown Tomb over Bayou for budgetary reasons.

I like the idea of fitting a bounceland or two into the deck, as if you have already drawn Inkmoth Nexus and you then draw Crop Rotation you can use the Crop Rotation to find a bounceland to save the Nexus from a removal spell.

Sideboards should definitely vary based on your local metagame. If you're blue you should probably always have Blue Elemental Blast as every area has some red mages, but other than that your mileage is going to vary. I imagine that no matter where you are you'll want a Spellskite though.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spellskite

Deck Overview: Standard Rakdos Deck Wins

Posted on April 6, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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Chris VanMeter won the tournament, and Tom Ross came up with an elegant new take on Heroic, but the deck that showed up at the SCG Open in Syracuse this weekend showcasing a potential sleeper was In Hyuk Hwang's Rakdos deck featuring three maindeck Kolaghan's Commands.

Rakdos Deck Wins

creatures

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

4 Monastery Swiftspear

3 Zurgo Bellstriker

spells

2 Outpost Siege

3 Kolaghan's Command

3 Lightning Strike

1 Murderous Cut

4 Stoke the Flames

2 Wild Slash

4 Dragon Fodder

3 Roast

4 Thoughtseize

1 Chandra, Pyromaster

lands

9 Mountain

3 Swamp

4 Bloodstained Mire

2 Mana Confluence

4 Temple of Malice

sideboard

3 Thunderbreak Regent

2 Twin Bolt

2 Ultimate Price

1 Wild Slash

1 Arc Lightning

2 Duress

4 Self-Inflicted Wound

The deck runs a little creature light, which helps to turn Monastery Swiftspear into the killing machine that it is. There's definitely incentive to making Swiftspear good in your deck, as returning it to your hand with Kolaghan's Command is the deck's best avenue to doing a lot of surprise damage out of nowhere.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kolaghan's Command

I'm not sure that this deck needs to maindeck three copies of Roast, but the only slot that I would immediately change without testing is the maindeck Thoughtseize. It's true that there are cards that you would rather that your opponent never cast, such as Siege Rhino, but mostly you just need to play things that get them dead, as your strategy will often leave your opponent with plenty of cards in their hand at the end of the game. Filling out the rest of the Wild Slashes, the last Lightning Strike and basically anything else that could deal damage to an opponent strikes me as a positive change.

I'm really interested to see if this archetype takes off. There's definitely a lot of raw power here, and Kolaghan's Command looked great every time that In Hyuk Hwang cast it on camera. Granted, I only saw him playing it in red mirrors, but even still the card has a niche and prior to this weekend was largely undiscovered.

Modern Metagame Breakdown: 3/1 – 4/1

Posted on April 6, 2015 by Sheridan Lardner

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It's time for our second metagame update since launching our site! Although there haven't been any major Modern Grand Prix or SCG Open events since the last article, the format has seen dozens of regional and local events in that time (not to mention all those juicy MTGO dailies). As with all metagame updates, data comes from our Top Decks page, where we aggregate Modern events from across the internet into one place. We then use a variety of statistical methods to tier decks (Tier 1 and Tier 2), and generally describe the metagame. You can also see the updated metagame stats on our home page on the right navbar. For anyone wondering why Tasigur, the Golden Fang is showing up below, you'll have to wait until the Tier 2 deck section to see a surprising mover in the Modern scene.

Quick note about what is included in the dataset: for MTGO, we are looking at 35 dailies that took place between 3/1 and 4/1. This includes ones reported on the mothership and others recorded directly from the MTGO client. And remember MTGO dailies only include 4-0/3-1 lists, not the 2-2 or worse ones. For paper, we are looking at 115 events comprising almost 650 decks, all from across the world. Finally, although there were no "major" events in that range, we are still including SCG Open Baltimore in the analysis as a single "major event" representative.

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Top 10 Decks and Trends

To the numbers! Below is a snapshot of the top 10 decks from 3/1 to 4/1, broken down by overall deck prevalence and then by metagame share within each of the format subsets (i.e. paper, MTGO, and major paper event).

Deck name	Overall rank (3/1 - 4/1)	Overall Metagame %	MTGO %	Paper %	Major Event Day 2 %
Abzan	1	13.2%	9.3%	11.6%	18.8%
UR Twin	2	11.8%	11.6%	11.4%	12.5%
Burn	3	10.2%	10.1%	9.5%	10.9%
Affinity	4	7%	7.8%	10.2%	3.1%
Infect	5	6%	2.6%	5.9%	9.4%
Jund	6	4.2%	2.2%	4.1%	6.3%
Abzan Liege	7	3.1%	2.8%	3.6%	3.1%
RG Tron	8	3%	2.3%	3.6%	3.1%
Merfolk	9	2.9%	4.3%	4.2%	0%
Amulet Bloom	10	2.7%	3.6%	3%	1.6%

For anyone who has been following Modern events, there shouldn't be too many surprises here. Abzan, UR Twin, Burn, Affinity, and Infect have been the tier 1 decks in Modern since the Pro Tour, and that didn't change since our last update. It's interesting, however, to see the distributions of these decks across the different event types. For instance, Infect is a major paper player, but has less than 3% of the MTGO metagame. Affinity has been doing well in paper events and, to a lesser extent, MTGO, but had only about 3% of the SCG Open metagame.

As for the decks under those top 5, they are mostly the same as in the previous update, with one big exception: Jund. Replacing Scapeshift on the list, Jund has rocketed up from 12th or so place in 2/16-3/16 to 6th as of 4/1. This is interesting but shouldn't come as that much of a surprise. Players like Reid Duke have been extolling Jund in this metagame for months, especially given the relative weakness of Path to Exile as compared to Lightning Bolt in a format with Affinity, Burn, and Infect.

Just to get a sense of deck trends, here's a table that shows the top 10 decks in our last period (2/16 - 3/16), and compares it to the rankings from the present period (3/1 - 4/1):

Deck name	Ranking (2/16-3/16)	Ranking (3/1-4/1)	Rank change	Meta% (2/16-3/16)	Meta% (3/1-4/1)	Meta% change
Abzan	1	1	+0	13.4%	13.2%	-.2%
UR Twin	2	2	+0	12.3%	11.8%	-.5%
Burn	3	3	+0	10.6%	10.2%	-.4%
Affinity	4	4	+0	7.8%	7%	-.8%
Infect	5	5	+0	7%	6%	-1%
Abzan Liege	6	7	+1	3.3%	3.1%	-.2%
Merfolk	7	9	-2	3.3%	2.9%	-.4%
RG Tron	8	8	+0	2.9%	3%	+.4%
Amulet Bloom	9	10	-1	2.7%	2.7%	+0%
Scapeshift	10	11	-1	2.3%	1.8%	-.5%
Jund	11	6	+5	2.3%	4.2%	+1.9%

This is a relatively stable metagame. With the exception of Jund, which enjoyed an almost 2% point increase in the period, most of the decks are about the same. Infect has fallen off the most with a 1% point dip, and Merfolk fell the most with respect to its ranking. But overall, the metagame didn't change much between our two periods. This suggests any testing or results you know of that applied back in 2/16 - 3/16 will still likely apply today; the metagames are, after all, still very similar.

Tier 1 and Tier 2 Decks

It's important to know the top 10 decks in the format for descriptive reasons. Those decks can give you an overall sense as to what strategies are represented in Modern, and some guidance on how you can choose/build a deck. But we can also use deck prevalence to suggest "tiers" of decks in the format. We do this through a variety of statistical tools, testing deck prevalences to see if they are within expected variance or truly above average. Does prevalence always equal performance? Absolutely not! Sometimes the best decks are underplayed. But when you are going to a tournament and want decks that have consistent results, the tiers can be very useful for illustrating that. You can get more info about this on our Top Decks page.

Tier 1 decks represent the most-played and most-common decks in the metagame. Again, they are not necessarily the best decks in the format, but they have so many results that you can safely expect to both succeed with them and to play against them in events. The table below shows the current tier 1 decks in Modern, as per our formulas on the site.

Deck name	Overall Metagame %	MTGO %	Paper %	Major Event Day 2 %
Abzan	13.2%	9.3%	11.6%	18.8%
UR Twin	11.8%	11.6%	11.4%	12.5%
Burn	10.2%	10.1%	9.5%	10.9%
Affinity	7%	7.8%	10.2%	3.1%
Infect	6%	2.6%	5.9%	9.4%

Not a lot of surprises here. As a whole, the tier 1 decks make up about 48% of the format, which is a slight but probably insignificant decrease from their 2/16-3/16 share of 51%. This tier 1 reflects the overall impression that a lot of players have about Modern. Abzan is still the most-played deck; Twin is still very strong, despite Abzan's prevalence; the other top decks are all fast, linear, aggressive decks that have game against Abzan. Ever since August 2014, Modern has been a format dominated by the big three of BGx Midrange (now Abzan), Twin, and Burn. Today is no exception.

To anyone who has been playing Modern for even just a few months, none of this should be too surprising, except perhaps the continued relevance of Infect. Otherwise, those other decks have been around forever (especially Affinity!). Prepare for your Modern events accordingly.

Tier 2, however, is much more interesting. These decks might not be the most-played in the format, but they have enough results that you can reasonably expect to face them in an event. They also have enough results that they generally make decent choices, although not quite as safe as the tier 1 representatives. Tier 1 decks are often pretty predictable or boring. But as we see here, tier 2 decks are anything but.

Deck name	Overall Metagame %	MTGO %	Paper %	Major Event Day 2 %
Jund	4.2%	2.2%	4.1%	6.3%
Abzan Liege	3.1%	2.8%	3.6%	3.1%
RG Tron	3%	2.3%	3.6%	3.1%
Merfolk	2.9%	4.3%	4.2%	0%
Amulet Bloom	2.7%	3.6%	3%	1.6%
UWR Control	1.9%	1.7%	2.3%	1.6%
Grixis Delver	1.9%	2.7%	1.3%	1.6%
Scapeshift	1.8%	2.1%	1.9%	1.6%
Living End	1.8%	1.4%	2.3%	1.6%
Bogles	1.8%	1.4%	1%	3.1%
Blue/Temur Moon	1.5%	.2%	1.1%	3.1%
Temur Twin	1%	.3%	1.3%	1.6%

Now that's what I call a Modern format! This is one of the more diverse tier 2s I have seen in a while. We have some more aggressive BGx hybrids (Jund and Abzan Liege) for those dissatisfied with Abzan's more passive pace. We have minimally interactive, "unfair" combo (Amulet Bloom) along with combo control (Scapeshift). Speaking of which, UWR Control, Blue Moon, and Scapeshift are those more traditional draw-go style control decks that people (myself included) have been missing from Modern. They might not be the best decks in the format, but these numbers suggest they are more alive than people acknowledge. Tier 2 also has some iconic Modern decks like Living End and RG Tron, as well as Merfolk and Bogles in case you still thought that you needed Tarmogoyf to play aggro in Modern.

But the real winner in our tier 2 is Grixis Delver.

Following the landmark bannings of Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time, it looked like Modern had seen the end of Delver-based decks for a while. Although there are reasons to hate Delver, there are also reasons to want the deck in the format: it polices combo decks, it's a competitive and reasonably priced strategy, and it's a true tempo deck that is often absent from Modern. Grixis Delver proved that Delver still has ~~legs~~ wings, even in a field saturated with Abzan. Adding Terminate, Inquisition of Kozilek, Murderous Cut, and/or Tasigur (along with other black staples), Grixis Delver has found a new home in this metagame. It has the manpower to fight Abzan and the interaction to stop combo decks. Although it has a long way to go before tier 1 status, its presence is a great development for Modern diversity and for many Modern players.

Metagame Predictions

My metagame predictions from the past article mostly came true. The Big Three are still the format kings, although that was about as safe a bet as having Kentucky go to the Final Four in your March Madness bracket. I could probably make this bet every article until July and be right, so in the interest of fairness, I'll try not to make it unless the metagame is actually that boring.

The Affinity and Merfolk predictions were also good ones, although their relative absence at SCG Baltimore affected their overall metagame share. But looking just at MTGO and paper, both decks saw sizable increases. Affinity went from 6.4% to 7.8% on MTGO, and from 8.7% to 10.2% in paper. Merfolk saw more modest increases, with 3.4% to 4.3% in MTGO and 3.7% to 4.2% in paper. But overall, this was another spot-on prediction. You want to play proactive strategies in Modern, and Affinity/Merfolk are fast, proactive decks with totally painless manabases. This makes them good choices both for the overall format demands, and also with so much Burn to go up against.

As for Esper Midrange, although it did not experience the same success as Grixis Delver, it has definitely risen up to a new level of viability. It's at about 1.8% of the MTGO metagame, but still lagging behind at < 1% for paper. Some small misses here, but I'm still calling this a 3 for 3. Too bad my NCAA bracket wasn't that good.

Looking ahead to our next update in the middle of April, here are three more predictions to look forward to.

1. Jund is on the rise!

I talked about this earlier in the article, but want to broaden it to a bigger metagame trend. Jund has a lot of tools that make it strong in this metagame. Huntmaster of the Fells is very powerful in the BGx mirror, stalls aggro decks, and generally breaks open staring contests. Terminate is one of the big reasons Grixis Delver is doing so well right now, and the ability to play it as an unconditional removal spell over Path is huge in this metagame. Jund also has a less painful manabase than Abzan, courtesy of Blackcleave Cliffs, which is important against Burn. And of course, Bolt is a lot stronger in this format than people were giving it credit for during the PT. All of these factors combine to make Jund a strong deck choice, and I expect it to maintain its metagame share in the next few weeks, even increasing it by up to 1%.

2. Affinity will replace Burn as the format's top aggro deck

Bold prediction alert! On the one hand, Affinity is never a deck you want to bet against; this deck is probably the oldest competitive Modern deck that is most similar to its earliest Modern forms. But it's also a deck that has seen ups and downs, going through dry spells when people pay more attention to it. One of the key cards in this equation is Stony SIlence, a card that is extremely challenging for Affinity to win through if played by a proactive deck. Know what decks don't run Silence? Twin, Infect, Grixis Delver, Jund, and a bunch of other hot decks right now. Know what those decks are running? Lifegain and anti-Burn tech in spades. Between the rise of decks that don't use Silence or have strong anti-Affinity cards, and their focus on lifegain strategies that target Burn, Affinity should continue to rise up until it passes Burn at the top tables. Even if some toolboxy Collected Company style deck emerges, this will almost certainly be worse for Burn (hello, Kitchen Finks) than it will be for Affinity. A corollary to this prediction is that Burn will keep falling. And speaking of Company...

3. Collected Company will remain homeless

We've seen a number of attempts at an optimized Collected Company deck in the past week. This has included a Naya Zoo deck, a few "Podless Pod" brews with Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit, Elves, Mono G Stompy, and a number of other decks. A week is not long enough to optimize a list for this card; I want to extend that to say we will need at least another 1-2 months to figure out where Company needs to go in Modern. There are two reasons for this. First, from a pure scheduling perspective, there are no major Modern events until June. In the absence of those big proving grounds, it will be hard to make a case for any single CC list over another. Second, just looking at preliminary results from the last week, we are seeing so many different lists that it is unlikely anyone will reach a consensus yet. Sometimes this isn't needed; Esper Mentor Midrange adopted Monastery Mentor and everyone sort of followed along, agreeing that was the best place for the card. We aren't seeing that with CC yet, and I don't expect to see it for a while.

That's all for this most recent metagame update! We'll check back on these predictions and the overall format in a few weeks. Until then, don't forget to check out our Top Decks page, make some predictions of your own in the comments or community, and to incorporate all this exciting metagame data into your deckbuilding.

Insider: Strong Signals from the SCG Standard Open

Posted on April 6, 2015January 17, 2022 by Adam Yurchick

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This weekend Chris VanMeter returned to his G/R Monsters roots, and to the surprise of no one, he earned a SCG Open title. The archetype has mutated to incorporate a dragon tribal sub-theme, courtesy of Dragons of Tarkir. Thunderbreak Regent and Dragonlord Atarka join Stormbreath Dragon to fuel Draconic Roar. The free damage dealt by the combination of these cards puts immense pressure on the opponent's life total and puts them at constant risk, especially from finisher Crater's Claws.

Haven of the Spirit Dragon surely draws attention; it has arrived. This card fills two roles: one, it’s a mana-ramp engine that stores extra mana and builds towards dragons; two, it’s effectively a source of card advantage because in the late-game when it would otherwise be another dead extra land it instead turns into a valuable dragon card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunderbreak Regent

Dragon theme cards are not only playable, but that they can compete with anything in Standard. Thunderbreak Regent is a clear staple of Standard and a clear financial winner this week. It's a four-of staple in Standard until it rotates out. At $10 it may have at most a couple of dollars to grow short-term, and perhaps a few more later this year after we stop drafting the set.

Dragonlord Atarka is not a four-of type card, but as a $7 Mythic it has near-term growth potential, perhaps to $10 this year, and significantly more in the future because of casual appeal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arbor Colossus

The sideboard tips off one of my favorite winners from this past weekend, Arbor Colossus. This card is simply excellent against dragons and their flying ilk. It comes down early enough to matter, and it doesn't die to Roast or Stoke the Flames. It also has great potential for destroying a dragon with its monstrous ability.

Green decks in Standard tend to be weak against flyers and Arbor Colossus is a unique and powerful way to confront the problem. It's a great option for any green sideboard in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Surrak, the Hunt Caller

Another big green winner on the weekend was Surrak, the Hunt Caller, which saw play in both Temur and two versions of G/R Monsters.

Surrak, the Hunt Caller is so powerful in these aggressive decks because it reliably has haste, and unlike normal haste creatures it has extra value later because it gives future creatures haste as well. This all adds up to a ton of extra damage and makes these decks a lot more potent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boon Satyr

Boon Satyr is a big winner from the rise of Surrak, the Hunt Caller, so expect to see increased demand for it this weekend. The rise of green-red decks has also provided an excellent home to Destructive Revelry, which is being played in spades in their sideboards because of its ability to function as a removal spell while still contributing to the burn plan for killing the opponent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atarka's Command

Gruul takes many forms, including the form of a red aggro deck splashing for Atarka's Command.

One of the best modes on the command is the +1/+1 anthem effect, but it requires a team of creatures to be effective. Hordeling Outburst and Dragon Fodder are the perfect pair of cards to support the command. The new Zurgo Bellstriker and Lightning Berserker had continued on their success from last weekend and indicate that red is very much a deck to beat.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Searing Blood

Searing Blood is a necessary element of these hyper-aggressive red decks, and so it has seen an uptick in demand. It will continue to be bought into the summer by players getting into Standard and looking for a cheap yet effective deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dromoka's Command

The award for most fascinating deck of the Top 8 goes to Tom Ross, who has done it yet again, this time with a new adaptation on Heroic, Bant Heroic!

Tom has abused the fact that Dromoka's Command can easily target two creatures with its +1/+1 and fight abilities. This opens up the door for explosive heroic draws and frightening tempo blowouts. Windswept Heath and Mana Confluence support the mana, and with Tom Ross behind it, it's likely the future of the archetype.

The rest of the cast is the usual U/W Heroic suspects, although he has also included a single Center Soul, which replaces any Feat of Resistance. There are a pair of Encase in Ice in the sideboard. Most interesting is the inclusion of Monastery Mentor in the sideboard, which allows the deck to shift gears into a more attrition-based game supported by Treasure Cruise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sidisi, Undead Vizier

I'm fascinated by Gerard Fabiano's 9th-place Jund Midrange deck. I have been trying to make Jund work since 2013 when Thragtusk and Huntmaster of the Fells left, and while this deck is nothing like the former, it plays a similarly hard-hitting game plan.

Built off the solid core of Sylvan Caryatid and Courser of Kruphix, this deck continues to exploit the favorable interactions between Satyr Wayfinder and both Sidisi, Undead Vizier and Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

With the ability to tutor, a single Whip of Erebos and a cast of singleton creatures and planeswalkers gives the deck a ton of late game power.

The most exciting card is Outpost Siege which gives this deck fuel into the mid and late game and allows it to attrition out opponents with its many removal spells and Thoughtseize.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Secure the Wastes

Todd Anderson was lurking in 11th with Jeskai Tokens, a convincing followup to his Top 8 performance with the archetype at the SCG Invitational.

It's notable that Dragonlord Ojutai has crept into the maindeck, powered by its favorable interaction with Jeskai Ascendancy. This card is the real deal in any blue-white deck and a winner going forward. The price is unlikely to increase substantially but it's not going down.

I have my eyes on Secure the Wastes. Todd played two copies in his maindeck, and it's going to become a staple of the archetype. I wouldn't be surprised to see him play another copy next weekend, perhaps in the sideboard. There's also a Narset Transcendent peeking in his sideboard, a number that could increase next weekend.

Seismic Rupture was not only in Todd's sideboard, but in VanMeter's as well, which tells me that the card is doing a lot of work during testing sessions in Roanoke. It's a card everyone should have on their radar. It's ideal against the aggressive red decks that flood the board with creatures, especially if the trend of using token makers continues.

Hornet Nest is another card that attacks Mono-Red, and it saw a ton of play at the SCG Open, so it's a sure seller this weekend.

Turn to the comments with anything to share or questions to ask!

Cheers,
-Adam

Insider: Weekend Recap – Dragons in Motion

Posted on April 6, 2015January 17, 2022 by Douglas Linn

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Dragons of Tarkir enters its second week of Standard play with a strong showing for the set at SCG: Syracuse. While we haven't seen all-out epic dragonlord battles in the sky, several staples are already emerging in the set.

This week, we'll dig into the trends and highlight your trading steps for this upcoming week.

Hail to the Regent

Thunderbreak Regent is by far the most interesting card of the week.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunderbreak Regent

A regent, by the way, is a person who stands in for the rightful ruler until the ruler is ready to come back to power. I tremble to think of what the Thunderbreak King or Queen must be like.

We saw three G/R Aggro decks take down the T8 of the event, including the winning spot. They offer a simple promise: make mana and smash the opponent with discount fatties. Whether it's a Boon Satyr bestowing an Elvish Mystic or a Stormbreath Dragon rolling out a few turns early, it's hard to beat the pure meat this deck can slam down.

All three lists represent a full set of Thunderbreak Regent. It's a potent card--I don't have to explain that to you at this point. It's a cornerstone of a very reliable strategy. It can come down on turn 3 and get to work, flying over a Hordeling Outburst.

The downside for the speculator is that this dragon has already flown the roost, sitting at $10 average. This is the upper bound for a rare from DTK. I don't expect many to break $15, for that matter. If we're looking at a 50% gain, that's a lot of money to risk for not even a double-up.

G/R is a captivating strategy because of its simplicity. This is a deck I can understand, says the casual dragon fan. Simply hurl fire and dragons.

So what do you do with this dragon? Two things.

First, I expect them to be in high demand for the next two weeks. Just like Snapcaster was the currency in Innistrad, this is going to be the $10 bill that facilitates trades. You won't be able to get up on trades with him or hold for advantage, but having these in your binder will make more magic happen. I suggest trading into these and then quickly out of them in your local store, making use of their high liquidity to make more manageable trades happen.

The second is to pick up the ancillary cards. My two picks on are Boon Satyr and Crater's Claws. And yes, the rhyming is pretty cool on the pair.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boon Satyr

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crater's Claws

Boon Satyr saw a brief $5 price and rides less than a dollar these days. The goat-man was in two of the three R/G aggro lists and is a good stand-in for whatever more expensive card someone is missing.

Crater's Claws isn't a sexy spell, but red burn has hit $5 before. The Claws are Ferocious a good deal of the time. They also see 4x play in the Temur Aggro deck that uses Frost Walker as an early Ferocious enabler.

Actions: Crater's Claws is in a full half of the Top 8, with 11 copies. It's a role-player that people won't notice creeping up to $3. Consider Boon Satyr as another pickup. Rattleclaw Mystic was in two of the three lists, and it's my pick over Caryatid for the aggressive strategy. I like it at $1.50.

Mono-Red and Mostly Mono-red Continue To Perform

Deck naming must be hell for the SCG recappers right now. Here's my short guide:

G/R Aggro: Dragon-based mana elf aggro
R/g Aggro: Mono-red splashing for Atarka's Command and similar

Both strategies did well this weekend. Mono-red is getting lumped together with R/G since it's just about the same thing. The idea involves jamming lots of little red guys with burn. In a Siege Rhino world, that's audacious--and it pays off.

The decks have picked Monastery Swiftspear back up, which is a sane move. They're amazing in the opening hand and not-awful off the top.

Ryan Sandrin played the world's gutsiest Firedrinker Satyr singleton, a bold choice in a world with Roast and a billion burn spells. The deck has other synergies, too. A Foundry Street Denizen on the first turn loves to see Dragon Fodder on the second, for example. Nice Caryatid you got there, take 3.

Mono-red remains a pretty cheap deck, too. That clues me in to the fact that it will not remain cheap. Rabblemaster remains the most expensive card, but you need a pair at most. He's even dropped to a more reasonable $15 these days. Zurgo continues to climb up and Stoke the Flames is still doing its impression of a rare.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zurgo Bellstriker

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stoke the Flames

Actions: Zurgo is up 20% from last week and I still think that guy is pretty darned cheap. I'm still listing him as a buy. He's got definite $5 card material to him. This is also a time to consider whether you want Courser of Kruphix around. On paper, the centaur looks like it mauls monored. In reality, this has fewer homes with Abzan Midrange checking out. This is a miserable time for horsemen.

Tom Ross is back with... non-red cards?!?

Check out Tom's throwback Bant Heroic deck for a moment. If we're going to get into that metagaming out-leveling thing, then this is what cruises past G/R and mono-red aggro.

We sometimes see this happen in Standard, where a player pulls back something from the previous year to wreck with. Tom splashed green for four copies of Dromoka's Command and it's totally game-changing.

Command my Seeker of the Way, fight your dude. 4/4, gain 4, kill your guy.
Command my Favored Hoplite 3/4, fight a guy, my guy takes no damage.

You get the picture. Heroic makes all those guys even larger, thanks to the token.

How does mono-red peel through that strategy? It can spam a bunch of tokens, but then Tom's got a pair of Ordeal of Heliod to gain 10 life. If he slaps it on a Seeker of the Way, he gets a counter and a Prowess trigger that turn, gaining four life while he goes through the Ordeal. That can take a lot of steam out of a Thunderbreak Regent and make targeting it a lot less painful.

This also has "cheap deck syndrome", so you can expect the market to jack up the prices on some of the core cards to compensate. Mana Confluence, for example, is a little under $10 right now. I'd expect a small bump there if this deck picks up. I cannot recommend picking up most of the uncommons because they are dogs outside of this deck--Ordeals aren't chase cards.

Actions: Scour your uncommons pile because Favored Hoplite is a $1 uncommon, for starters. Hero of Iroas is at about $3.50 right now and that's seen $8 in the past--the price memory is there. Dromoka's Command is a solid hold--if you trade them, be sure to get good-quality cards out of the deal.

Abzan Is Going Full Aggro

Cats abound in the T25 of the event. Abzan has almost entirely dropped its late-game Whip engine in favor of the much leaner combo of Rakshasa Deathdealer and Fleecemane Lion.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rakshasa Deathdealer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fleecemane Lion

The Deathdealer is sold out at $1 from SCG--expect a higher price on the restock. I think it's a good pickup at that price, especially since we're seeing it in conjunction with Heir of the Wilds. The Rakshasa can get Ferocious at a cheap price.

Players are still sorting out optimal lists. Wingmate Roc is a staple 2-of and, at $5, it's a good pickup. That card is still scary, but it leans really hard on removal in the face of things like Stormbreath Dragon and Thunderbreak Regent. I've seen Warden of the First Tree pop up, but that's a much riskier $5. I'd stay away from him right now.

Actions: The Rakshasa Deathdealer at $1 looks like a steal, but don't be greedy. Khans rares are ubiquitous, so out this when it hits $3 or you might not ever see $4.

A quick hop to Modern with Collected Company

The loss of Birthing Pod means little to Modern players when it can be replaced with Collected Company. Check out this 11th-place list from Max Brown and tell me how awesome that looks.

Let's get this out of the way: yes, Congregation at Dawn into Collected Company seems bonkers. So does setting up Viscera Seer, Kitchen Finks and Melira. People forget just what a pain it was to fight off Finks and Melira alone--suddenly attacks became very unprofitable.

I also like his use of Flickerwisp to imitate Restoration Angel at a price that Collected Company loves. The Wisp can take out any problem permanent, too. If you've played a bit of Modern, you also know what sort of damage a 3/1 flier can do over time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Collected Company

Collected Company is going kind of nuts at $5 right now. That seems unsustainable because nothing in Standard wants the effect. Thus, it feels forced--$2 looks more realistic.

On the other hand, Congregation at Dawn is hard to find and clocks in at $3. This is one of those ancient uncommons that'll hit $5-7 with decent play. Remember that people are searching for the next Birthing Pod iteration. Those who didn't rage-sell their deck will be glad they kept a Pontiff around want want to pick up the last few incidentals for their deck.

The deck also has zero copies of Garza's Assassin in its 75.

This was a fake buyout from last week and one of the stupider ones I've seen. A QS Insider posted about a Collected Company deck in which the pilot ran an Assassin. That was awesome to see on the QS forums, by the way, so all praise to the poster!

It got a life of its own when Chas Andres tweeted about buying up foils of it and then it disappeared online. People fell into the hype and the card did nothing afterward. From 3/30-4/4, it went from $1.60 to $10 as a foil and the foils aren't moving. I'm glad most Insiders stayed away from this and aren't stuck holding a dud foil Coldsnap rare.

Actions: Pass on the Company but get Congregation while it's still reasonably cheap.

Quick Hits:

Still no Mono-blue Devotion.
Dragonlord Ojutai showed up in Todd Anderson's Tokens list, but hasn't seen his breakout yet.
G/R Dragons has got a big ol' target on it now.
This format is still young enough for new strategies to stun us at the PT.
No G/W Devotion anywhere to be seen. Sorry Whisperwood Elemental.
Ire Shaman has a surprisingly-low 15% spread (go ahead, look it up).
Deathmist Raptor had a few showings in in the T16 and below, but $13 for this thing seems nuts.

Until next week,

-Doug

Insider: Developing Izzet Dragons

Posted on April 5, 2015January 17, 2022 by Ryan Overturf

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NOTE: After writing this it was brought to my attention that Jeff Hoogland Top 16'd the SCG Invitational with a similar deck. While I like a number of things about my list more than his, but I definitely blanked on Dragonlord's Prerogative. I'm not a fan of his Icefall Regents, though they are quite strong. Crater's Claws was something I considered but am not in love with. I would make room for one or two Perogatives in the board, however. Probably over the Roast and one of the counterspells.

Very often in Magic we see new cards printed as "fixed" versions of older cards. While a card like Shock serves as a fixed Lightning Bolt while still being playable, more often we see things like Treasure Cruise as a "fixed" Ancestral Recall that's still totally busted.

WotC has made it clear that they don't want us to have Counterspell anymore, but they did just give us Silumgar's Scorn.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silumgar's Scorn

This card has some clear downside when compared to Counterspell. Force Spike is very easy to play around and every Standard-legal dragon puts some pressure on a deck's manacurve. Even still, we saw Silumgar's Scorn show up in control deck's at the Richmond Invitational this weekend, most notably in the hands of Shaheen Soorani.

Even with these drawbacks, the card looked quite good.

I think that Shaheen was only scratching the surface of the card's potential. When a card has considerably drawbacks, it tends to shine brightest in a deck that finds a way to negate these drawbacks. For Silumgar's Scorn, this means finding the deck that can kill fast enough to make Force Spike the most effective in addition to playing the most possible dragons.

For my money, that means pairing the card with this roster of heavy-hitters:

These cards all singularly put a lot of pressure on the opponent's life total, making Force Spike more relevant, with the two dragons offering the straight upgrade to Counterspell.

An argument can be made for just playing burn spells or Anger of the Gods maindeck in lieu of Rabblemaster, but I believe it's probably necessary to have the extra win condition. It does weaken the deck to Wild Slash, but, ultimately, Anger has a higher chance to be bad than Rabblemaster is.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anger of the Gods

With these four cards lined up, I'm inclined to steer this deck towards a "counter-burn" type strategy, rather than trying to fill the deck with aggressive creatures. I don't like the idea of mixing in any of the other aggressive creatures in the format, as just adding removal and Dissolves will enable the deck to compete with a wider range of decks in addition to not being forced into aggressive roles, while easily being able to transition into an aggressive position with only a single threat.

The other big card that makes this deck possible is Anticipate. It's kind of crazy how powerful this card is compared to how weak it looks. Years of Pondering and Brainstorming have spoiled me. Even still, it's clear that a deck with a focus on Silumgar's Scorn is going to want access to card selection, and Anticipate really helps smooth things out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anticipate

The other great thing about Anticipate is that it's another cheap card to fuel the delve on the much better card selection spell Dig Through Time. Dig is a staple of blue control decks, and it shouldn't be surprising to see it mentioned here.

The last thing to figure out with this deck is how to configure the burn suite. There are a lot of powerful options right now, and depending on what you're trying to accomplish, it's not clear which red cards are the strongest in Standard.

These cards are all excellent:

Stoke the Flames is quite possibly the strongest card of the lot, but it can be very clunky in a deck that doesn't feature many creatures. Without any two drops or Hordeling Outbursts, I'm not convinced that Stoke fits here.

I do believe that four Wild Slash is non-negotiable. It's just too efficient to pass up on and it kills a great deal of relevant creatures, not the least of which being opposing Goblin Rabblemasters.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Rabblemaster

Draconic Roar, Lightning Strike and Roast are tougher to figure out. Lightning Strike is the only one of the lot that matters against control decks, Draconic Roar is the preferred tool against red-based aggressive decks, and Roast is the hero we deserve against Siege Rhino.

Seeing as we're maindecking four Rabblemasters,we're already increasing our percentages against control decks at the expense of our aggro matchup, so I like playing some number of Roasts and Draconic Roars over Strikes, but I haven't gotten the numbers down to a science just yet.

This is the list that I'm looking at right now:

Izzet Dragons

creatures

4 Stormbreath Dragon

4 Thunderbreak Regent

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

spells

4 Silumgar's Scorn

4 Anticipate

4 Wild Slash

2 Lightning Strike

2 Roast

1 Draconic Roar

3 Dissolve

4 Dig Through Time

lands

4 Temple of Epiphany

4 Shivan Reef

4 Swiftwater Cliffs

4 Island

4 Mountain

1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon

2 Polluted Delta

1 Bloodstained Mire

sideboard

1 Dissolve

4 Anger of the Gods

4 Negate

2 Disdainful Stroke

2 Draconic Roar

1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon

1 Roast

The random fetchlands are a little spice to help delve Dig Through Time. You might be able to squeeze one or two more fetches in, which is something I'll be experimenting with.

The Haven of the Spirit Dragon is pretty much a freeroll and is an awesome land to bring in against control decks. Playing it over a mountain does hurt the sideboard Anger of the Gods some, but the upside on this land is very high against control decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Haven of the Spirit Dragon

Financial Implications

I actually like Haven well enough as a spec, if you can get them in the sub $2 range, which is pretty doable as most of the people who I talk to don't see it as a card. It's not only very clearly awesome to casual players, but it is just a great 1-2 of in decks like this or Esper decks with Ojutais and Silumgars.

Dig Through Time is dipping pretty low now, and we're likely approaching the card's floor. Remember, Khans isn't drafted with Dragons, so fewer and fewer of these are entering the market. The card is going to be great in Standard for as long as it's legal, and it's also very good in Legacy, EDH and Cube. Being banned in Modern certainly hurts the card, but I could easily see it hitting $9-10 again while it's Standard legal. There's not a lot to be gained by paying the gold price, but it's a good trade target.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dig Through Time

There are a lot of cards in this deck that you don't want your money tied to, though. Stormbreath Dragon, Goblin Rabblemaster and the Izzet Lands are all nearing their expiration date.

I do think the deck is awesome. Have any suggestions? Think that Rabblemaster should be the sideboard option? Share your thoughts in the comments!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Brushing up on the Fundamentals

Posted on April 3, 2015April 2, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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Sorry folks, no podcast this week because Jens decided to "be with his family", or some hippie crap like that. Instead, I would like to bring to your attention a very important, if concise article brought to you by none other than Reid Duke. You can find the piece here.

The crux of the article is that fundamentals are, well... fundamental. The word's own definition makes its importance clear. You simply can't master anything by starting with the most complicated elements. You wouldn't start your toddler off with string theory and you wouldn't teach somebody how to play Magic by telling them the important aspects of Brainstorming correctly.

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You can win plenty of games even when you Brainstorm poorly, but you'll really struggle if you have a poor ratio of mana sources to spells in your deck. You'll also want to teach somebody early on the importance of knowing Who's the Beatdown.

If you've ever played against Reid, then you might have picked up on the fact that he will often recite the textbox of cards that you play against him as you play them. For example, if you play a Flying Man he will say, "1/1 Flying?". It's very likely that this confirmation of fundamental knowledge helps Reid grok more complicated board states as they develop.

Vince Lombardi would famously start the season off by explaining to players what a football is, breaking down the markings on the field and other fundamental aspects of the game. Good fundamentals lead to better understanding of more complex ideas.

If you're interested in reading a great book on mastery through understanding fundamentals, then I cannot recommend Joshua Waitzkin's The Art of Learning enough. The book borrows some ideas from Robert Pirsig's Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance (another title that I strongly recommend) and illustrates how Waitzkin went from being the world's youngest Chess Grandmaster to becoming a Tai Chi Chuan World Champion.

If you want to win the next Grand Prix or SCG Open, you might be inclined to find the best decklist and/or sideboarding guide that you can. Before you do, you might want to take a look at this.

This is a Magic card.

Insider: MTG Stock Watch 3/29/15

Posted on April 3, 2015January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers! This article shifted a week on account of prior work obligations, but it's one of my favorite series to write (predominantly because it's pretty formulaic, but also because it forces me to look at cards outside of my normal focus).

Penny Stocks

1. Savor the Moment (+148.4%) - We had a lot of chatter on our forums this week and it seems to have caught on. This is one of the very few “take an extra turn” cards available in Tiny Leaders (with the others being Lighthouse Chronologist, Sage of Hours, Second Chance, Stitch in Time, Time Sieve, and Time Walk).

Of those options, only Time Walk requires less starting requirements (Chronologist you have to sink a lot of mana into, Second Chance you have to have 5 or less life, Stitch in Time could give you nothing and Sage of Hours requires counters on him).

2. Surrak, the Hunt Caller (+146.3%) - My pick for most underappreciated regular rare in Dragons of Tarkir, it's no surprise he had a big jump. At worst he’s a 5/4 for four mana that adds two green devotion. At best he's a 5/4 haste beatstick on turn three that gives one creature per turn that you play after him haste.

3. Dromoka's Command (+36.8%) - This is one of the commands getting the most hype coming out of the SCG invitational on account of the strength of G/W/x (usually black) and it's quite often a two-mana two-for-one.

4. Sidisi, Undead Vizier (+36.5%) - Another card that owes its bump to the SCG Invitational, this card is an EDH all star and the ability to demonic tutor in Standard is nothing to scoff at. When Diabolic Tutor was last legal it didn't see a whole lot of play...but you add one colorless mana to it, make it 4/6 creature and voila, success!

5. Obelisk of Urd (+21.1%) - This one likely comes off the fact that with a Standard that's almost the maximum size card pool (after Origins we'll have the largest card pool we can have) there's often a lot of tribal synergies available and an anthem effect that can be cast cheaply and provides a large pump is a huge boon for this style of deck. I imagine the most common creature types chosen will be goblin and warrior for the next couple months.

Blue Chip Stocks

1. Tarmogoyf (-4.61%) - This one is no surprise. With MM2015 impending, a larger expected print run, and Tarmogoyf being reprinted his price will likely continue to decline for the next few months (until MM2015 supplies have been opened and all new copies of Tarmogoyf are basically accounted for).

2. Jace, the Mind Sculptor (+2.06%) - This one may be due to some speculators hoping/praying that he'll be unbanned in Modern. While I don't know if he'd warp the format too much (with no free counterspells to protect him, you can't really jam him until turn five or so and plenty of decks can win before then), I think he'd be interesting to try out in the format. However, the fact that he's still over $90 and is only legal in EDH, Vintage, and Legacy means that an unbanning would cause him to skyrocket (my guess would be $300) and I really don't think WoTC wants any Modern cards that high.

3. Dark Confidant (-1.91%) - Poor Bob, he still continues his downward trend. Despite the elimination of Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time in Modern, the shift in the metagame towards Siege Rhino-style Junk decks (i.e. midrange decks with higher curves) seems to be pushing Bob out of the way. My friend (an avid Junk midrange player for the past year) has replaced Bob with Courser of Kruphix and found it to be a pretty solid swap. Rather than lose life, you gain it, and while you don’t always get a card per turn the fact that Courser falls out of bolt range is a pretty big benefit.

4. Underground Sea (+1.48%) - We’re beginning to see a gradual shift back towards Esper Stoneblade (or Deathblade decks) which means Underground Sea will begin to shift upward as Volcanic Island likely starts to shift back downward. The Legacy metagame is usually slower to changes (compared to Standard) and even when you do get a major shift it’s typically there to stay (until we see a banning or unbanning).

5. Savannah (-0.86%) - While there’s been rumors of a Bantblade deck starting to gain traction (Knight of the Reliquary is just a really powerful “fair” card and couples well with Stoneforge Mystic), it’s not really showing up in SCG Top 8s yet.

Opportunities

This week’s opportunities focus on Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged cards. While I normally don’t like to target Standard cards, with the release of Dragons of Tarkir this past weekend we can expect a lot fewer cards from these sets to be added to the overall supply moving forward (though I am aware that the draft structure for Dragons includes one Fate Reforged pack in the third spot).

As you all know a large majority of the newest Dragons of Tarkir cards will begin to drop in value in the next month as more product is opened and the supply skyrockets. So now is the ideal time to unload any Dragons of Tarkir cards you aren’t currently using and as many people are weary of buying cards they expect to decrease in value they often seem far less concerned about trading for them…so if you can’t sell them at least trade for stable/good speculation targets from Khans/FRF.

Siege Rhino - I realize he’s not at his lowest (currently sitting at around $7), but this card is dominating Standard and even has a home in Modern. He’ll be around for another year and a halfish and it’s unlikely he’ll be outclassed anytime soon. It’s important to note that with the fetchlands in Khans, pack cracking likely met an all-time high and the supply of these is massive (luckily so is the demand).
Clever Impersonator - Being mythic this guy has a much higher ceiling then regular rares. Again, he’s in Khans so there are still a lot of them in the supply, however he’s currently sitting at around $3 (with some copies available for closer to $2). Given the retail price on the bulk mythics is still usually $0.75-$1.00 he doesn’t have much more room to drop, but is a casual all star. I plan on starting to pick these up aggressively in the coming months.
Bloodsoaked Champion - He hasn’t really found much of a home in Standard yet, but creatures that can return from the graveyard almost always find a home somewhere (granted it’s better when they return for free, but that’s usually the sign of a mythic rare). Gravecrawler once sat at $3.50 and now he’s over $6, Bloodghast was $3 and now he’s almost $11.
Tasigur, the Golden Fang - He’s currently selling retail for slightly under $8 and up until about a week or so ago was buylisting for $7 (it’s now down to more like $5). He is a very efficient beater with a card advantage engine built in, in colors that rarely get it (B/G….not blue obviously, blue has tons of card advantage).
Temporal Tresspass - Every card that says “take an extra turn” deserves more than a cursory review. It’s a mythic in a much less opened set that has delve (which has proven to be an insanely powerful ability). Its biggest downfall is the “exile itself clause"--unless you count the stupid high 11 CMC. However, you can now pick them up for under $1.50, it’s very close to “bulk” mythic status.

Standard Super League Announced!

Posted on April 2, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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If you're a fan of Vintage, Luis Scott-Vargas, or general degeneracy then you've probably been keeping up with the Vintage Super League. If you haven't been watching VSL, then it's something that I would recommend checking out. Basically a bunch of great players play Vintage matches every week with the matches commentated by other great players. Archives for VSL videos can be found here.

If you're not into Vintage or degeneracy, but are a fan of Luis Scott-Vargas then there was an announcement made this week that will possibly interest you. A picture is worth 1,000 words, and this picture has a few words on it so it's worth... one-thousand-and-several words.

Eight great players playing Standard every week with LSV commentating each and every match. This is a dream come true for many Standard players. I personally have transitioned to consuming a lot more video content than written content largely in the interest of multi-tasking, so I'm super hyped for this. With names like Brad Nelson, Gerry Thompson and Tom Ross you know that we'll see some sweet brews every week, too.

It's kind of funny when you look at the listed accomplishments on the banner and see Cheon's credit coming from way back in 2006, but he's been crushing GPs lately and is definitely worthy of the spot. Either way, even if Paul Cheon is the worst guy in your league then you still have a lot of room to fall.

This is going to be extremely fun to watch, and if you're trying to see Standard success I can't imagine that skipping watching SSL would be a good idea. Outside of PT coverage you really can't find consolidated information from this many great minds anywhere.

Brewing Collected Company Elves

Posted on April 2, 2015 by Sean Ridgeley

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Elves was once one of the best decks in Modern, thanks to the high power level and consistency afforded by Green Sun's Zenith and Glimpse of Nature. Once they got the banhammer, things took a nosedive and the archetype has been struggling ever since. Sure, we saw nice aggro lists do well here and there at smaller events, and some respectable attempts at combo after Beck // Call was released, but nothing has really stuck or impressed the community at large.

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Things Done Changed

Two things have changed recently that could mean Elves is finally viable in Modern. It's a big could, but it's important we explore it.

First: several lists have been doing okay at tournaments big and small, most of them deviating from the Legacy template the community (myself included) has clung to for so long, and instead opted for the Devoted Druid / Ezuri, Renegade Leader plan (two untapped Druids and an Ezuri means infinite mana and pump). So there's at least some viability there.

Second: Collected Company is entering the format. Two of the major problems Elves has had in Modern is consistency and a lack of recovery tools (spot removal but moreso wrath and 2 for 1's off Electrolyze are difficult for the deck to fight through over the course of a tournament). Scavenging Ooze is nice, but it's often not great in the mid-game and it doesn't help consistency -- unlike Company.

Exploiting Collected Company

With the addition of Company, there are three different directions we can go: aggro, Legacy-style combo (with Beck // Call and Cloudstone Curio), and Devoted Druid / Ezuri combo.

Company certainly is a great fit for aggro, and I'll likely explore that option in the future, but for now it's between the latter two options. It's an easy choice from my perspective: in preliminary testing, about 6-7 or less non-creature spells (including Company) seems to be ideal here (this may be different in a deck like Zoo, as a low land count helps us), and the Legacy-style lists are a lot less streamlined and pack creatures that cost more than 3. I'm definitely open to it being better and may explore it in-depth in the future too, but for now my instinct -- based on preliminary testing and extensive experience with the Legacy-style version -- is to place bets on Devoted Druid / Ezuri.

Now, a three card combo is generally a bad idea in Modern, but that's not so much the case here for a few reasons: two of the cards are the same, all of the cards do multiple things outside of the combo, and we have a backup aggro plan. When you actually get some time in with the deck, it becomes clear it's a lot more viable than it might seem.

The Core

There are certain things in this list we simply cannot do without. They are as follows:

Heritage Druid and Nettle Sentinel: Without Heritage, Elves is just too slow and vulnerable to work. She becomes busted in combination with Sentinel, who doubles as a strong beater and blocker when buffed. Sentinel is also synergistic with Chord of Calling.

Devoted Druid and Ezuri, Renegade Leader: The combo, and the reason to play this version. Besides Ezuri, Devoted has synergy with Heritage, Sentinel, and Chord of Calling. Plus, two extra mana on turn 3 is no joke.

Eternal Witness: Nice as a recovery tool, combo piece (fetch that dead Druid you or an opponent killed to combo off), and value (Collected Company into Witness into Company is a thing).

Collected Company: This deck had some game to it before Company, but now, thanks to it, it has a huge boost in consistency and resilience. Don't leave home without it.

Chord of Calling: Added consistency that synergizes well with Sentinel and Devoted Druid, and can fetch hate cards for you (at instant speed, no less) -- a superb card that does a lot to make Elves work. It's possible this should be Summoner's Pact, but I'm more inclined to think not as of now.

The Rest

The rest is at least a bit up in the air, and that's where a lot of the fun lies. Here are some of the stronger mainboard options:

Llanowar Elves, Elvish Mystic, and Arbor Elf: We don't have sweet 1-drops like Legacy does in Quirion Ranger and its ilk (yet), so some number of these is probably necessary. While the 'needing to untap to work' thing and the sometimes poor topdeck issue are annoying, you could do a lot worse (a lot of Modern decks could, for that matter).

Elvish Visionary: Brings some consistency and resiliency to the table. She's better if we have a way to bounce her (the only decent ways in Modern are Temur Sabertooth and Cloudstone Curio, and neither of those fit very well here), but is still respectable even if we don't.

Fauna Shaman: Also brings some consistency. Like the dorks, she needs to untap to work, but she will sometimes, and when she does she will often take over the game. She also serves as another big threat to deal with -- a dead Fauna Shaman is an alive Heritage Druid.

Scryb Ranger: Lets us operate on fewer lands and abuse tap effects, and keep going when we cast Company into her. Remember we can use the ability on the opponent's turn, too.

Elvish Archdruid: Can get us stupid amounts of mana to dump into Ezuri, and provides a valuable backup aggro plan. We'll usually be very happy to flip this off a Collected Company, especially if it's at the end of our opponent's turn, and especially if we get Ezuri with it.

Scavenging Ooze: Delve is pretty popular right now, and Ooze is great post-wrath (imagine following an opponent's 4 for 1 Pyroclasm with a Company into Ooze and Fauna Shaman). The question is whether this should be sideboard to make more room for other things.

Spellskite: Flat out insane in this meta, where it's extremely relevant as a hate card and protection card against most of the top decks. I'm inclined to run it main since we have Chord, but again, it's a matter of room.

Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx: Can be nutty, but can also feel win-more and hurt our ability to cast a lot of little green dudes. It will require testing.

Based on all that, below is my first draft.

Combo Elves by Sean Ridgeley

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic

4 Llanowar Elves

4 Heritage Druid

4 Nettle Sentinel

4 Devoted Druid

4 Elvish Visionary

4 Elvish Archdruid

3 Ezuri, Renegade Leader

2 Fauna Shaman

1 Eternal Witness

1 Spellskite

Instants

4 Collected Company

3 Chord of Calling

Lands

14 Forest

3 Horizon Canopy

1 Pendelhaven

Sideboard

3 Cavern of Souls

4 Essence Warden

1 Scattershot Archer

1 Spellskite

4 Scavenging Ooze

1 Choke

1 Reclamation Sage

Closing Thoughts

I'm not 100% confident in the list as of yet -- I may want some of the unused aformentioned cards in the maindeck, I may want to tweak card counts, I may not want Skite in the main (or I may want more), I probably want to address some different decks with the sideboard or address them more strongly, I may want to sacrifice a little consistency with Company for the explosiveness of Craterhoof Behemoth, I may want to put the Vengevine / Fauna Shaman plan sideboard, I want want to splash white for hatebears, etc.

However, it also feels like a great start that will become more refined after testing (which I'll get in next week once Dragons of Tarkir releases to Magic Online).

In any case, this is the best I've felt about Elves since I began playing Modern, and even if Company doesn't prove to be enough, it's a good stepping stone.

Insider: RPTQ Prep Week 2

Posted on April 2, 2015January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

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Welcome back for week two of my regional PTQ prep mini-series. If you missed last week's article, check it after you're done here. Just like the Ninja Turtles in their sewer home or Goku in the hyperbolic time chamber, I’m stepping up my training regimen for this event. One of the main aspects of training is observing the metagame shifts that occur week to week and delving into their implications. One important thing to remember is that there are a lot of decks out there and even the ones that don’t Top 8 a major tournament can influence meta evolution.

You certainly need to summon your Sword of Omens and use it to defeat your enemy, but which weapon you choose should change depending on what everyone else is bringing to battle. This past weekend, there were a whole slew of events but the most important was the Star City Invitational. Those deck lists will have great influence over players and what decks they bring to upcoming tournaments.

April 10-12 is Pro Tour Dragons of Tarkir, and we should see a lot of innovation from the pro teams for this event. Luckily that event will happen before the RPTQ so we will have time to dissect the decks that break out at that event. Grinders do a great job tuning their strategies for the independent circuits, but huge innovations typically develop from the Pro Tour meta.

In addition to changing what the metagame looks like, this upcoming Pro Tour could drastically alter the financial landscape of the format as well. Dragons of Tarkir is like a coiled spring, ready to shift in value at a moment’s notice.

Due to the low value of the majority of the cards in the set, there is tons of room for growth. So, if we see one of the low-end mythics break out in a tournament, we could see a huge surge in value overnight. This fact is more true of Dragons than any other set in recent memory. It may even spike harder than Theros did upon its introduction to the format.

We have already seen big gains from Surrak, the Hunt Caller, Thunderbreak Regent, Dragonlord Ojutai, and Deathmist Raptor, but we could still see another price jump on these cards or others depending on what happens in the next couple of weeks.

The biggest loser so far has to be Sarkhan Unbroken. With no home, his value continues to decrease. The question is not whether he is good, because obviously he is, but rather, what deck will play him. Until he has a home, he should continue to drop in value. The lower he goes, the more appealing he becomes as a buy target though.

With all the press that Icefall Regent has gotten lately, I’m surprised to still see him hovering around a dollar. If you can pick this mini-Frost Titan up cheaply, I would suggest doing so immediately. This is one of the safest investments that I can see in the set. Along with Thunderbreak Regent, this is the only other card that my shop sold out of upon release. We almost sold out of Zurgo Bellstriker and Surrak, the Hunt Caller as well, but we ended up with a couple copies left of each.

Enough about what the future may hold. Let’s focus on the events that transpired this weekend and how that will influence our meta.

R/G Dragons by Ross Merriam (8th Place SCG Invi)

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

3 Heir of the Wilds

4 Rattleclaw Mystic

4 Boon Satyr

3 Surrak, the Hunt Caller

4 Thunderbreak Regent

4 Stormbreath Dragon

Spells

2 Draconic Roar

4 Crater's Claws

1 Roast

Lands

2 Mana Confluence

1 Rugged Highlands

4 Temple of Abandon

4 Wooded Foothills

6 Forest

6 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Hornet Nest

3 Destructive Revelry

3 Wild Slash

1 Nissa, Worldwaker

3 Xenagos, the Reveler

2 Roast

The first deck up on my list is a deck I like to call Red Green Dragons. Why is this deck so important? Players loved their R/G Monsters decks and there were a lot of players loyal to the archetype. This deck is quite similar and should draw a big crowd quickly. Many players already have most of these cards and would only need to acquire some copies of Surrak, the Hunt Caller and Thunderbreak Regent in order to play this deck. So for around $50, players can update a previously weak deck to one of the best options in the metagame.

Not only is the deck easily accessible, it is a potent weapon that is ready to strike down any stumbling opponent. One of the main reasons this deck is better than its predecessors is Elvish Mystic. I know that Mystic has been legal for a while now, but it has never been as potent as in this deck.

Although, Goblin Rabblemaster and Boon Satyr have been legal alongside our Llanowar Elf replacement, no players have thought to put the three cards in a deck together. The main reason they are together now is so that Surrak, the Hunt Caller can trigger formidable the turn he comes into play. So, not only are you starting the game by curving your one mana accelerant into a three mana powerful play, but you can follow that up with strong creatures at every point along the curve.

Don’t overlook the fact that every threat in this deck can win the game on its own. I lost a game last weekend only to Rabblemaster. My opponent technically played other cards, but he didn’t need to. Rabblemaster may be a known quantity, but it is still as potent as they come.

Finally, most of these creatures generate damage on their initial turn in play. Rabblemaster makes a token, Stormbreath Dragon and Surrak have haste, and Thunderbreak Regent deals damage if your opponent tries to kill it. All of that incremental damage adds up. Once they’ve taken damage from all of your cards, there won’t be many life points left over to deal with.

Going forward, my biggest question is about planeswalkers. All these threats are amazing, but they can all still be killed by pinpoint removal or a sweeper. Are we at a point where Xenagos, the Reveler or Nissa Worldwaker should be main deck? Or are these threats better suited to start on the sideline and then sub into the game? If this is the deck for you, I would say answering this question should be at the top of your list of things to do.

Otherwise, the deck is tuned extremely well. Make sure to include this deck in your gauntlet for testing because you will be seeing a lot of it in upcoming events for certain.

U/R Dragons by Jeff Hoogland (15th place SCG Invi)

Creatures

3 Flamewake Phoenix

2 Icefall Regent

3 Stormbreath Dragon

4 Thunderbreak Regent

Spells

1 Aetherspouts

4 Anticipate

4 Dig Through Time

4 Lightning Strike

4 Silumgar's Scorn

1 Stubborn Denial

3 Wild Slash

2 Crater's Claws

1 Roast

Lands

1 Bloodstained Mire

2 Flooded Strand

1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon

1 Polluted Delta

4 Shivan Reef

4 Swiftwater Cliffs

4 Temple of Epiphany

1 Wooded Foothills

3 Island

3 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Stormbreath Dragon

1 Aetherspouts

3 Disdainful Stroke

2 Dragonlord's Prerogative

2 Twin Bolt

2 Anger of the Gods

3 Roast

1 Haven of the Spirit Dragon

Despite a high profile deck tech, I feel this deck is still somewhat under the radar at the moment. I have not seen anyone talking about this deck at all because it didn’t end up in the Top 8 of the event. The only reason I know Jeff made the Top 16 was because I was searching for this deck and happened upon the final standings of the event.

This U/R Dragons deck is another great example of a deck that players will likely jump on board with because the deck plays similarly to previous tempo decks. The goal here is not to totally control the game like U/B Control does right now, but rather to delay what your opponent is doing so that you can get to the later stages of the game with fewer of their threats on the board.

This deck supports super-efficient spells and some solid threats to back them up with. My main issue with this deck is that the matchup against other dedicated control decks will be a rough endeavor. Yes you have counterspells and card draw, but at the end of the day, you don’t have many threats for your control opponent to deal with. Unlike R/G Dragons above, you definitely don’t have a continuous stream of threats to overload your opponent’s removal.

Don’t hear this caution as a warning to stay away, but rather use it to prepare more thoroughly for the control matchups than you would with another deck. U/R does a great job, as you might imagine, at stalling the early turns of the game. That is something that no other deck does well in the meta right now. Jeff is always pushing the envelope and developing interesting ways to attack formats. This deck is no different so if it fits your play style, sleeve this up and tune it to your play style.

Dragon Control by Mike Lanigan

Creatures

4 Orator of Ojutai

3 Icefall Regent

2 Dragonlord Ojutai

2 Dragonlord Silumgar

2 Dragonlord Dromoka

Spells

1 Brave the Sands

4 Silumgar's Scorn

2 Dissolve

4 Anticipate

2 Valerous Stance

2 Ultimate Price

2 Hero's Downfall

4 Crux of Fate

Lands

4 Haven of the Spirit Dragon

1 Mana Confluence

4 Temple of Deceit

4 Temple of Enlightenment

1 Temple of Silence

1 Temple of Mystery

4 Polluted Delta

1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

4 Island

1 Swamp

Here’s a deck that I’ve been working on that ended up similar in play style to that of U/R Dragons. I am playing a lot more colors than two and casting my green-white creature with no obvious green or white sources (Haven of the Spirit Dragon) is always an eye opener.

This deck falls prey to the same weakness as the U/R deck in that it is also quite weak to dedicated control strategies. Your game plan against them is basically cast Dragonlord Dromoka, or Dragonlord Ojutai, and protect it with Valerous Stance and Silumgar's Scorn. At the end of the day though, you don’t have many threats to lean back on.

Fighting against other decks is much better because they don’t have many ways to remove your gigantic dragons from the board. So basically you control the early game and then drop a threat that they cannot deal with.

Ultimately, I don’t think that this deck is good enough to cut it in the high-powered metagame, but it sure was a blast to play with. Getting to cast actual Counterspell felt dirty and definitely too good, so a strategy that can support it should definitely exist in the metagame.

What I learned from playing this deck is that Dragonlord Dromoka is insanely good. Not only did I have one opponent scoop when I played the card, but I won lots of games with it. While much different than Baneslayer Angel, Dromoka has a potency unlike any other threat I’ve seen. The difference is that this late game threat has a built in Grand Abolisher attached to it as well as not being able to be countered. This is a threat that should be seeing significantly more play than it is currently for how efficiently it can take over a game.

Lastly, Haven of the Spirit Dragon was amazing for me the entire tournament that I played with this deck. The ability to help you cast your dragons as well as regrow your late-game threats at instant speed and without using a spell was insane value. If you have dragons in your deck list, consider adding a couple of this land to help you overcome your control opponents.

Jeskai Myth by Korey McDuffie (11th place SCG IQ Richmond)

Creatures

4 Mantis Rider

4 Seeker of the Way

4 Soulfire Grand Master

Spells

4 Myth Realized

2 Anticipate

2 Lightning Strike

1 Negate

4 Stoke the Flames

2 Valorous Stance

3 Wild Slash

2 Anger of the Gods

4 Treasure Cruise

Lands

3 Battlefield Forge

4 Flooded Strand

4 Mystic Monastery

3 Shivan Reef

1 Temple of Epiphany

4 Temple of Triumph

2 Island

1 Mountain

2 Plains

Sideboard

1 Ojutai Exemplars

3 Disdainful Stroke

2 Erase

2 Negate

1 Valorous Stance

2 Brimaz, King of Oreskos

2 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

2 Arc Lightning

Thanks to @cchichy on twitter for this supreme find. This deck is the next level of tempo in Standard. Innovating from Jeskai Aggro, Korey McDuffie has taken the highly anticipated Myth Realized and put it into action in Standard. I also think this is the perfect deck to jam some main deck Ojutai Exemplars rather than sticking them in the sideboard. I would much rather see a 2/2 split of Exemplars and Soulfire Grandmaster for example as a way to add some more potency to the deck. Rabblemaster should always be a consideration as well.

My worry with this deck is not when it’s ahead because once in front, this deck will push you to the ground and beat your face in until you have life left to give. From behind though, I don’t think it can catch up well. In addition, you don’t want the game to go long either. For this deck to win, it needs to find the sweet spot of winning in the midgame. That can be difficult to achieve.

The deck shows a lot of promise though and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the pros utilize this as a springboard for deck innovation for the Pro Tour. I love the additional threats in the sideboard as well so you can strengthen your threat density against control decks.

Abzan Aggro 2.0 by Mike Lanigan

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic

3 Warden of the First Tree

3 Heir of the Wilds

3 Fleecemane Lion

1 Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit

3 Boon Satyr

1 Anafenza, The Foremost

4 Siege Rhino

3 Surrak, The Hunt Caller

1 Tasigur, The Golden Fang

Spells

3 Valorous Stance

3 Dromokas Command

1 Abzan Charm

1 Sorin, Solemn Visitor

1 Utter End

1 Murderous Cut

Lands

4 Windswept Heath

4 Temple of Plenty

1 Temple of Malice

4 Llanowar Wastes

2 Caves of Koilos

3 Sandsteppe Citadel

1 Urborg,Tomb of Yawgmoth

4 Forest

1 Plains

Is this the new face of Abzan? To be honest, I’m not sure, but I do know that there is a lot of room for innovation with your Siege Rhinos. It’s not that Abzan Aggro needs a face lift to succeed in the current meta, but it might need some spice to take some opponents by surprise.

The biggest question in my mind is if Surrak, the Hunt Caller should be included in this deck and my initial impression is yes. Wingmate Roc is still good against some decks, but it may be better suited from the sideboard. With all the 4/4 red dragons running around, two 3/4's do a reasonable job blocking, but are not that great at attacking. Adding Surrak in place of them would not only allow us to lower our curve but also to increase our clock considerably.

This version focuses on being an aggressive green-white deck and splashing the obviously powerful black cards. There are many versions of this deck to explore, but this one is at the top of my list. With this particular iteration, my top concern is whether or not to run Elvish Mystic. While it’s certainly powerful, I’m not sure it is necessary. Unlike the R/G deck above, we don’t have two good aggressive three-costs to be playing on turn two, so it’s possible that we want to remove them for other more powerful threats and or a couple other removal spells.

Testing is definitely needed in order to determine the course of action from this point, but Surrak, the Hunt Caller is definitely the type of card I am interested in investigating.

I'll be back next week with more updates on my RPTQ preperation as well as what's happening in the metagame that's shaping the format.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force on Standard!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter

Exclusive Interview on the Modern Banlist

Posted on April 1, 2015 by Sheridan Lardner

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Editor's Note: This article was originally published on April 1, 2015. As in, this April 1.

Modern is broken. I'm a statistician, so you can trust me when I say the numbers prove how screwed the format is. Did you see the attendance at Starcitygames' Modern event this weekend in Richmond? 178 players?? What, did SCG secretly host a Netrunner tournament instead of Magic? SCG brought Modern to Richmond a year ago for a Grand Prix, and 4,303 players showed up. I don't know what's scarier: The thought of 4,303 Modern players in a single room, or the fact that Richmond saw a 96% attendance drop in just 12 months. And guess what? 100% of that attendance drop occurred after the January 19 banlist announcement. That's a perfect correlation (R = 1) between the death of Pod/TC/DTT and the death of Modern. If this doesn't prove Wizards is trying to kill Modern, I don't know what will. They might as well do a Modern Masters reprint of Tarmogoyf at mythic to finish the job.

Oh no...

But I was unwilling to give up hope yet! Wizards' plan couldn't just be to make Burn 50% of the metagame by printing Atarka's Command, right? In light of these disturbing trends, I snagged an exclusive interview with one of Wizards' most important employees. He agreed to share some insights on R&D's recent bannings, and the longterm plans for Modern and the Modern banlist. But he'd only spill the beans on two conditions. First, we had to promise not to ask about enemy fetchland reprints in Battle for Zendikar. Second, we had to ensure total anonymity for our source. So to kick off April, I'm releasing this abridged version of my interview with Faron Oarsythe.

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Thanks for sitting down with us, Mr. Oarsythe. It means a lot to the Modern community you can speak out on these important issues.

Tell that to Twitch chat.

I wanted to start things off by asking about the January 19 bannings. Can you explain the thought process that went into those decisions?

Well, we had Birthing Pod on our radar for a long time, but after banning Deathrite Shaman last year we were too scared to ban anything else. The hatemail was too hot to handle; My work inbox could be a Criminal Minds episode. But when Siege Rhino came out, we knew we had to do something or Pod was going to take over the format.

Did you ever consider banning Rhino?

No way. Cards like Rhino are the gateway drugs of Modern. First you play Standard with your Rhinos and Thoughtseize, and it's just clean, Friday night fun. Then you realize you have most of the cards for a deck like Abzan Liege anyway, so why not shell out a few hundred for the difference? And before you know it, you've liquidated your parent's IRA to support your Tarmogoyf habit.

So once you banned Pod, did Cruise just have to go?

We can only have one format dominated by blue and that's Legacy. Vintage doesn't count because it's more of a "lifestyle choice" than a "Magic format". Delver was already about a million percent of the format before we banned Pod, so we had to drop the hammer there too.

What about Dig Through Time? A lot of players were pretty dissatisfied with the rationale given for banning that card.

They wouldn't let us ban the blue fetchlands. How else were we supposed to keep blue down? Besides, we aren't banning Brainstorm in Legacy any time soon, so we need to take out our blue-card-draw hatred somewhere.

Let's look ahead to R&D's longterm goals with Modern. A lot of players have questioned Wizards' ability to manage the format, communicate its goals, and support the playerbase. Do you share these concerns?

Absolutely not. Between Modern Masters 2, reprints of Modern staples, and cards specifically pushed for Modern, we are committed to supporting Modern at all levels. Our decision to revert the Pro Tour back to Modern was an example of this. We also keep communication channels open on Twitter and at Magic events like Pax East. And if you want to really understand our inner workings, you can always purchase your very own Magic 8Ball to consult the same higher powers we do when banning and unbanning cards.

It sounds like the banlist is at the core of a lot of Modern discussion, both internally and in the broader community. What plans does R&D have moving ahead with the Modern banlist?

There's this perception in the Modern world that we just want to ban everything. That's ridiculous. How do you think little Jimmy is supposed to enjoy Modern if his deck gets banned every season? Actually, that's easy; he'll probably complain about it on reddit, sell his collection, and then buy back into the next hot deck in a few months. More to the point, how do you think Wizards is supposed to pay my salary if our player base is saving for college, a new car, or a down payment on a house instead of cracking MM2 boosters? No one wants bans and we do what we can to avoid them.

Are there any cards in danger of being banned right now?

Anything with the word "Delve" on it. Maro has the Storm scale. We now have the Delve scale. Become Immense is bad enough, but Tasigur, the Golden Fang is the real offender: How are we supposed to justify Goyf at mythic if you can just play Potassigur at rare?

Speaking of Become Immense, are there any other cards you might want to ban that break the turn 4 rule? I know Amulet of Vigor has received a lot of attention recently.

Amulet isn't going anywhere. How else are we supposed to convince Legacy combo players to jump ship and play Modern? Also, do you have any idea how expensive it would be to cut Primeval Titan and company from the MM2 print run in March?

What about unbans? There was a lot of surprise when Golgari Grave-Troll was the only card unbanned during that January 19 announcement, and again when nothing got unbanned on March 23.

One of our most important goals in R&D is format balance. We want a variety of viable decks in the format. We can only publish articles on Daily MTG that tell readers "Modern is really diverse!" so many times before people start wondering why MTGO is 50% Burn, Abzan, and Twin. Unbans are a great tool to ensure balance. We thought it was too risky to unban anything before knowing what the metagame looked like. Troll was the exception. I'm not sure what gave the Wizards legal team more trouble: The reserve list or #FreeTroll.

Does that mean unbans are more likely in July or later in the year? Modern players have been wondering about Ancestral Vision and Sword of the Meek for months.

Didn't you guys learn anything about the "draw three cards" text with Treasure Cruise? After Cruise, Modern players should be happy to see Concentrate in a future set; talk about power creep! Yeah, there are a few guys in R&D who think AV is fine for the format, but these are the same guys who walk around with the "PATRICK DICKMANN IS MY TWIN BROTHER" t-shirts, so I'm a bit suspicious of their motives.

As for Sword? It's up in the air. Let's just say if you want to know where all the foil Swords and Foundries went online, I wouldn't check my storage unit.

How about some of the other cards on the list? Bloodbraid Elf for instance?

I don't understand Modern players. First they complain there's too much black-green midrange. So we ban Deathrite. Then they complain it's all gone. So we ban Cruise and let them keep Rhino. Now they complain there's too much again? It's not like Elf is going to make that situation any better. I swear, pleasing you guys is almost as bad as pleasing those Commander players.

It's not totally off the table though. Looking at past data, we see Elf can go into Zoo decks to give them a bit of a boost. And if I know anything about Zoo players, it's that they get what they want with the banlist. I'm still finding Wild Nacatls hidden around my house and car signed in red pen with "Free us -Brian Kibler".

Are there just some cards on the banlist that are totally off limits?

It's what you would expect: Skullclamp, Dread Return, Blazing Shoal, and so on. If it already broke Modern at one point in time, like Shoal, or has a Legacy power level, like Hypergenesis, you won't see it here. Also, no artifact lands. All the guys that worked on those sets? They're handling distribution in Alaska. Me? I'm sitting right here. That's because while they were designing Cranial Plating and Disciple of the Vault, I brought us sunburst. And nothing says "job security" like Solarion.

I notice you didn't mention everyone's favorite planeswalker. What about Jace, the Mind Sculptor?

(laughs)

Last question from me. Could you give us some clarifications on some of the ban criteria? In particular, the turn 4 rule is always cause for disagreement.

Isn't everything in Modern? But seriously, it's pretty simple. At first it was "decks that consistently win on turn 3 or earlier". Then it was "top tier decks that consistently win on turn 3 or earlier". But on the R&D side of things? It is now, has always been, and will always be, "decks that beat me at Wednesday-Wizards-cafeteria-Modern on turn 3 or earlier." There's a chain of command. You can't have your staff killing you on turn 2 because some designers can't pull interns from coffee duty to test for Modern.

Anything you want to leave your readers with? Favorite card? Favorite deck?

Anything with Meddling Mage or Nevermore. But I'm also a big fan of Living Wish and the wish cycle. As much as I enjoy ending possibilities, I love creating them too. What can I say? You have to wear lots of hats in R&D.