menu

Eric Klug AMA

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

If you're like me, you're a huge fan of Eric Klug's work. He's clearly the best card alterist in the game, and not only that, he's a dedicated member of our community, curating cubes to draft from at nearly every event he attends. Klug's work speaks for itself and everyone has a favorite piece unless they aren't aware of his work. I envy those people getting to see his work for this first time.

This week, Eric did an AMA (which stands for "Ask me anything") in the magic subreddit. He stuck around for a few hours answering questions and since responses will get sent to the message box on his account, there's a chance he'll respond to something asked even now since he's an active redditor with three years under his belt.

This is one of the most interesting AMAs I have read, frankly. He answers some interesting questions and even fans of his work and longtime followers will find they have something to learn. The AMA was also an excellent excuse for us to see his favorite work.

Ok, that's cheating. This wasn't from the AMA, it's just my favorite piece.

The full AMA is available at this link.

Feel free to ask a question and maybe he'll get back to you. If not, peruse the entire thing because it's a great read and well worth it. Enjoy!

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in Free3 Comments on Eric Klug AMA

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Some Things Will Never Change, Some Things Will Never Stay the Same

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

We've got another classic Magic magazine to take a look at today. This is Scrye, issue #84, published in June 2005, just under ten years ago.

IMG_4845

In a lot of ways, what I read in this issue could have been written today, unlike last time, where I looked at a 20-year-old edition. Still, when I dug a little deeper, I found some interesting stuff.

First, take a look at this article title:

IMG_4838 (1)

That is an excellent question, posed by Abe Sargent, writer for various sites over the years, most notably Star City Games and Gathering Magic. How have casual decks changed since Betrayers of Kamigawa? Well, here's the decklists Sargent provided in the article:

IMG_4839

IMG_4840

IMG_4841

I see a pretty big difference between casual decks of 2005 and 2015.

Need a hint?

Check out the number of cards, both total in the deck and copies of each. These days, talking about a "casual" decklist is all but saying "Commander." There are certainly still folks who play 60-card casual, but you don't see too many articles about it these days. Casual Magic has undergone one of the biggest changes in the last ten years—the format of choice. Will it be Tiny Leaders in ten more years?

IMG_4844

This stands out to me as something that's changed in a big way. This ad is clearly aimed at kids and teenagers. Obviously, we don't see as many print ads for Magic today (I mean, except for the ad cards included in every single booster pack we open), but when we do see ads from Wizards, they're usually not so kid-focused. Yes, people often refer to Magic as a "children's card game," and that might have even been true at one point, but my guess is most players these days are in their twenties. The game's marketing is a major thing that's changed in the last ten years.

One more thing about this ad that would be different today: the nagging mom and the annoying sister are depicted as the bland home life, and then three boys are depicted as the exciting away life. A little one-sided in either direction, don't you think? Wizards does a better job of being more inclusive to both genders these days, but there's obviously still a long way to go at the business and community levels.

IMG_4835 (1)

I didn't play in 2005, so I don't really know if the Genju enchantments made an impact in Standard. But what really stands out to me about this feature is this little chunk:

IMG_4836 (1)

There's no way these enchantments were good in Vintage, right? People who were there: was this actually a real consideration at the time, or is just an example of the eternal nature of Magic player optimism and hype? I just can't fathom a world where the Genju enchantments were good in Vintage. Please, fill us in.

IMG_4842

Okay, now this is interesting. Most of these cards were Standard players, but Serra Angel? As the number one seller? I mean, this chart leaves much to be desired: source, method, time period, etc., so it's not like the numbers can't be manipulated one way or the other. But Serra Angel? Was this played in Standard at the time (it was legal, I checked)? Was this 100 percent due to casual demand? If you can put this into any kind of perspective for everyone, I'd appreciate it. I thought Serra hasn't been good since the nineties!

One last thing for today. This was in the early internet age, when it still made sense to advertise your website in paper magazines (oh, times have changed). This is from ten years ago. How many of these stores are still around? You may recognize a few names:

IMG_4843

Some things never change.

Sarkhan, Unbroken

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

You can never really predict how we're going to get information about upcoming cards. Some come from controlled spoilers on WotC's end. Some come from some jackwagon leaking information before they were supposed to, which spoils the surprise. It's like eating all 30 pieces of chocolate from an advent calendar at once - it feels good at the time, but then you realize you've deprived yourself of an experience for the next month and you end up feeling a little sick to your stomach.

Still other information comes from looking at products from companies outside of WotC for clues. This clue comes to us from the announcement of the pins that are going to be available at the upcoming PAX convention.

Untitled\

I know what you're thinking. "Harmonix has a pin? Is it a new Rock Band game?"

What you should be thinking is "Is that Sarkhan? Why does he have a blue streak in his hair?"

People online are already referring to the pin as "Sarkhan unbroken" which would indicate a few things. The first is that he's going to be included as a Planeswalker in Dragons of Tarkir.

Untitled

 

What we can all agree on is that we don't need another damn RG planeswalker. We've had enough of those. What would be cool is a Temur-colored walker, especially if his abilities aren't all total trash. Still, a 5-color "Supreme Khan" could be a cool thing as well. It's hard to know what's going to happen, but I think the blue streak in the hair points to a Temur walker and I'm going to hold out some hope for that.

The Vorthos gets a little "Back to the Future" with Sarkhan going back in time and messing with the timeline and it's hard to know the implications of him messing with time travel will be. Sarkhan never goes insane? Elspeth is resurrected? They never print Treasure Cruise? Whatever happens, I think this collectible pin is all but proof positive that we'll see Sarkhan in Dragons of Tarkir and hopefully he is a good, playable one in good colors.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in FreeLeave a Comment on Sarkhan, Unbroken

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Gavin Verhey’s horrible adventure

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Our friend Gavin Verhey, a designer at Wizards of the Coast (and guest on Brainstorm Brewery a while back) is an all-around awesome guy. And on his blog, GavInsight, we get little pictures of his life. This usually comes in the form of Magic-related stories, and I have to say that Gavin is an amazing writer, and was my favorite every week back when he wrote for Star City Games.

marduscout

This time, however, Gavin's story has nothing to do with Magic. But dang, it's an incredible story. In short, Gavin was on a cruise, got lost on a hike up an inactive volcano, fell down a cliff, and suddenly found himself in a possible life-or-death situation.

It's an incredible story, and I highly suggest reading it in full here.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Feature, FreeLeave a Comment on Gavin Verhey’s horrible adventure

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

The Return of Team Pro Tours?

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It's 2015, you're all on Twitter, you all know who to follow. Did you happen to see this exchange on your feed?

Team PT

It's pretty clear that many pros do not like Modern as a Pro Tour format. It's also clear, though less directly, that fans of Birthing Pod do not like Modern as a Pro Tour format. Most importantly, from WotC's perspective, Modern doesn't show off new sets the way that Standard Pro Tours do. You get to see new cards in limited, sure, but very few Standard cards impact Modern.

Having a Pro Tour that features Team Draft and Team Unified Standard would feature the new set even more than individual Pro Tours. You just end up showing more matches this way, and more matches means that you show off more cards. Not to mention that Unified Standard forces players to explore more diverse strategies.

As evidenced by Helene's tweets, the big issue is determining how qualifications work. It sounds like some great minds are on the case though.

Team PT

With the intention being to assemble a "strike force" within a month, is it possible that we could see a Team Pro Tour as early as next year?

Avatar photo

Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

View More By Ryan Overturf

Posted in Free, Pro TourTagged Leave a Comment on The Return of Team Pro Tours?

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: PPTQ Report – First Place

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

“Never give up. Never Surrender."
-Buzz Lightyear

How many times have you started off your tournament 0-2 or 1-2 and dropped immediately? We all have done that many times. Depending on the event you are playing in, you may or may not actually be out of contention, but often once we reach that point in the event, we would rather move on than battle through. Often continuing to press on will result in still missing the cut, but once in a while your efforts will be rewarded. This is that story.

This past weekend I was able to attend my first Pre-Pro Tour Qualifier. I’ve been too busy with work, kids, and my business to travel around and play in these types of events. From what I’ve heard, they have not been well supported by the stores hosting them either which doesn’t incentivize players to drive to play in them.

As someone who regularly thinks about prize support, from the player side as well as the owner side, I believe giving good incentives for players to make the drive is crucial to your tournament success. Even though attendance at these events is not what Wizards predicted it would be, stores can still create a good experience for players.

Going into the event I did not have my hopes up about my success because I was not confident in any decks I’d been working on. The night before, I didn’t even play in FNM to test any decks. For a while, I’ve been playing various token decks but mainly Jeskai Tokens. It is a potent weapon but despite my confidence in the deck, I was not having success with it.

Before Fate Reforged, I was tinkering around with Abzan Aggro just as it was becoming a real deck so I decided to give that a whirl. I let a friend borrow it for FNM and he did poorly, but it’s what I wanted to play. Sometimes you have to go with your gut. Sometimes you have to play the deck you think is the best in order to prove to your friends (and yourself) that it is the best.

The List

So despite my friend 1-2-dropping FNM with my Abzan Aggro deck, I registered 70 of the same 75. His one suggestion was to make sure I had four Valorous Stance between main deck and sideboard. I thought that was a great idea so I tweaked the numbers a bit to make room for those cards and changed the sideboard a little as well. Here’s the list I played.

Abzan Aggro by Mike Lanigan

Creatures

4 Warden of the First Tree
3 Fleecemane Lion
2 Rakshasa Deathdealer
3 Heir of the Wilds
3 Anafenza, the Foremost
2 Reclaimation Sage
4 Siege Rhino
2 Wingmate Roc
1 Tasugur, the Golden Fang

Spells

3 Valerous Stance
2 Bile Blight
2 Abzan Charm
2 Hero's Downfall
2 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Murderous Cut

Lands

3 Sandsteppe Citadel
3 Temple of Malady
2 Temple of Silence
4 Llanowar Wastes
2 Caves of Coilos
4 Windswept Heath
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
2 Forest
2 Plains
1 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Valerous Stance
3 Glare of Heresy
1 Bile Blight
2 Drown in Sorrow
2 Doomwake Giant
1 Recmaination Sage
1 Hero's Downfall
1 Erebos, God of the Dead
1 Sorin, Solemn Visitor
1 Nissa, Worldwaker
1 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

First things first, I need to talk about the deck. Don’t think this is a random deck list--much testing, tuning and theorizing went into its construction.

One way I found myself losing with this deck was to opposing Bile Blights. You have two choices when your opponent could have the efficient removal spell in their deck. You can only ever have one copy of a creature in play at a time, or you can play your creatures as aggressively as possible and hope they don’t draw that card.

Usually it’s better to play around Bile Blight, but I found that many times you don’t have that luxury. For example, if you have two Fleecemanes and no other threats, how will you actually pressure your opponent if you don’t play both? So you’re stuck in this situation of getting punished for any actions you take which does not lead to many victories.

One way to avoid that scenario is to build your deck in such a way that you won’t draw those creatures in multiples. This is not a typical way you would construct your deck but with Bile Blight and lots of good creatures to choose from, we have the opportunity to do just that.

Of the three-drops, Rakshasa Deathdealer is the weakest in the first couple of turns of the game. It happens to be much better in the late game because you have lots of mana at your disposal. The fact that you can cast it on turn two makes it quite the versatile threat. I never want to have two of them in play at the same time because my opponent can always set up profitable blocks or force me to expend my mana every turn in order to keep them from attacking. With this archetype, in most matches, you want to be playing another threat each turn. Spending your turns pumping or regenerating your Deathdealer is a way to lose a lot of games. I’ve found two copies to be the perfect number for this card.

Many players have moved on from Heir of the Wilds, but that seems like a misevaluation of the metagame to me. Not only is it an aggressive threat, it always has the ability to trade up for a better creature. This concept is subtle and can easily be undervalued. There are many times when your opponent is unwilling to block with any of their creatures because they don’t want to trade with your 2/2 or 3/3. Against the midrange decks, this creature is often key to your success.

Another interesting aspect of my version is including Reclamation Sage maindeck. I’ve seen a couple players hedge and play one copy, but I went a step further and said that because it has targets in the majority of matchups, I want two copies main and another in the board. As you’ll see below, that paid off in a big way. I really like the two maindeck copies and highly recommend you make room for them in your build.

Tasigur, the Golden Fang was an interesting one-of all event. He was great the times I drew him but I didn’t find myself wanting him often. Tasigur is obviously bad in multiples so drawing one is almost never bad. Sometimes he is extremely cheap while other times you are happy to pay four or five mana. If there was something I wanted to cut, I would consider running a second copy but I think one is the correct choice. Maybe the second copy could be in the sideboard but I don’t think there is room there either.

Finally, the removal suite is set up in a similar fashion to that of the two-cost creatures. My goal with my removal was to have a diverse set of answers at my disposal. You may not have what you want in hand but you should always be drawing to an answer. I know that Abzan Charm is supposed to be the epitome of this concept of versatile removal, but I found it to be the worst of the bunch and often I wished for more Hero's Downfalls instead.

I think Abzan Charm is awkwardly placed in the metagame right now and outside of a couple matchups, don’t think it’s very good. I think a miser's one-of is fine, but the second copy should just be another Downfall.

The Rounds

So how did my crazy-looking deck list fair at the event? Let’s dive right in and find out.

Round 1: Outlast Lifelink

I’m not going to write about how this was a great deck and that it’s going to revolutionize the format. Sometimes you get lucky enough to play against an easy matchup like this. Granted, he did have some nice synergies with Ajani's Pridemate plus lifegain triggers, but otherwise it wasn’t a very competitive deck.

Match 2-0
Record 1-0

Round 2: R/G Monsters

My friend Josh, who has been to the Pro Tour a couple of times, drove down for this event. While I was happy to see him, it’s always unfortunate to play against your friends. You’ll have that sometimes with five-round events though because there are not that many players at the event. Despite the low attendance, the quality of players was definitely above average. We had a bunch of players who have had trips to the Pro Tour as well as players who regularly make day two of GPs.

Both game one and game two were complete blowouts for each of us. Game one, he played threat after threat as well as multiple Stormbreath Dragons and I couldn’t keep my head above water. Simlilarly, in game two, I had removal for every threat he played and easily won with my two creatures.

Game three, I mulliganed to six and kept a sketchy hand based on Warden of the First Tree living. Warden overperformed all weekend and this game was one such time. Despite drawing all the land, eleven total, I still had a chance to win the game. Many players still don’t know that you can double-pump the Warden and I put myself in a situation to win if blocks didn’t line up perfectly. Unfortunately Warden was blocked in a very conservative manner and I didn’t have nearly the resources to win from that point.

Match 1-2
Record 1-1

Round 3: R/W Midrange

In game one, I was not sure exactly what deck I was playing against. There are many decks that can start on Seeker of the Way, and it was hard to deduce which version he was playing. As it turns out he was playing a burn-heavy R/W Midrange and not the Jeskai Tokens I suspected.

I was never really in this game because I was cramped on mana and I had two useless Abzan Charms in hand. I took a risky line and lost some life to draw cards in order to try to dig myself out of a bad situation but he had the burn to punish my decision. It was unlikely I was winning from such a life total against a deck with burn spells but I took my shot and it didn’t work out.

Game two was a different story. I boarded in more removal spells and I was easily able to keep his board in check while I beat face with Anafenza, the Foremost. She was a real beating for many opponents this weekend.

Game three was a crazy affair. We both had strong hands. My opponent fought through my double Drown in Sorrow, Doomwake Giant, Siege Rhino, and triple Sorin, Solemn Visitor with creature after creature. He was able to get in some damage with Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker before I could kill it as well as some other random hits from creatures. He also dealt quite well with all my Sorins which is hard for those types of decks to do.

At the end of the game, I was at four life and my opponent was at two. He had one draw step to find his burn before I killed him. He drew Wild Slash, which wouldn't have been enough except for the Lightning Strike he also had in hand.

I had no regrets from this match. It was an epic adventure filled with lots of adrenaline. We both played great the entire match and unfortunately it ended with me on the losing end.

Match 1-2
Record 1-2

So, after three rounds, I found myself in a precarious position. The perpetual dilemma. But I thought to myself, “Never give up, never surrender.” And pressed on.

Round 4: G/B Constellation

These midrange green decks can be a real tough nut to crack. Game one, I remembered the weakness of this particular strategy. Sometimes you kill a couple of their threats and they are left with some mana guys and not much action.

Game two, I went down to five cards. Despite a valiant effort on my part, my hand was slow with no removal to back me up with. I had no answer to Hornet Queen or either of the Doomwake Giants, so onto game three we went.

For our final game, I had my opening of Heir of the Wilds into a couple Reclamation Sages and a Doomwake Giant after his Hornet Queen. He didn’t have much gas left in the tank after that and my creatures mopped up the rest of his life total.

Doomwake Giant proved essential to my tournament success. I sideboarded him in many different matches and he was great all day. Any time your opponent could have Hornet Queen, this is your best answer. It not only removes their toughest threat, but it also gives you a great body to battle with. Make room for a couple of these in your sideboard.

Match 2-1
Record 2-2

Round 5: 4cc Control

Another friend and another close matchup. My friend is a rogue deck build like myself and today he was playing his non-green control deck. His list featured Brimaz, King of Oreskos, Goblin Rabblemaster, Tasigur, the Golden Fang as well as black removal spells, some counters and a couple burn spells. It was a potent mix. If he would have had some more threats in his sideboard to better match up against a true control deck, I think he would have top-eighted this event.

As for our match, his mana base helped me quite a bit. In order to play this type of four-color deck, you need Mana Confluence as well as pain lands and fetches. His lands dealt him too much damage and but he was able to stabilize with Dig Through Time and a solid stream of threats and answers. Despite his low life total, I was unable to finish him off after the End Hostilities.

Game two, I jammed threat after threat and while he did have answers for almost all of my threats, he was always a turn behind and was unable to catch up. That’s one of the great things about this deck. Not only does it play significant early threats, but it also has lots of removal to back them up so you can keep connecting with them.

Game three was very close, just like game one. Unfortunately, he was stuck for colored mana. He had both white and blue mana but no red or black mana to kill my creatures. So he was able to cast his Brimaz, but after I killed it, he didn’t have much else to do and even though he could Dig Through Time, it was too little too late and I finished him off.

Match 2-1
Record 3-2

So, just like that, after starting 1-2, I fired back two wins in a row and had a shot for Top 8. The only thing you can do is your best. Once you’ve done your best, it’s up to the numbers to tell you whether that was good enough or not. As it turns out, all of the x-2’s made it in and I squeaked into the Top 8 in 8th place. Although I would be on the draw for every game one in the elimination rounds, I still felt confident that my skills and deck could win any matchup.

Quarters: GBw Constellation Whip

Even though I played against a similar version and beat it earlier in the day, this is still a tough matchup and this version is better than the one I faced before. Not only does it have Whip of Erebos for lifegain and reanimating shenanigans but also it has its own compliment of Siege Rhinos. Playing this match out felt a lot like a mirror match even though it wasn’t.

Game one seemed close at first but my mull to five on the draw didn’t have the staying power it needed to overcome my opponent's double Doomwake Giant draw and we were quickly onto game two. In this game, I never lost tempo or control of the game. My Reclamation Sages did heavy lifting and I had double Rhino on top of a Doomwake Giant of my own. Clearing your opponents hornet tokens is a clear path to victory in this match so keep your Bile Blights in and bring in your Doomwakes.

Game three was much closer. We both were casting Rhinos and then the board got clogged up with lots of creatures. I had a number of threats including Heir of the Wilds that my opponent didn’t want to block, so while the board was stalled, I was able to keep attacking for a little bit until I could chain a couple removal spells together to force through the last couple points of damage.

Semis: U/B Control

After taking some damage from my lands, I spewed out a steady stream of attackers. My diverse threats like planeswalkers and cheap creatures got in a bunch of damage but the opponent had every answer at the right time. He had early removal spells for my early threats, then a counter or two to disrupt me. Finally he cast Dig Through Time to find a removal spell plus Crux of Fate to clear up my board and Ugin to demolish any chances of me winning.

Game two was much more in my favor. I had a turn one Warden of the First Tree to apply the most pressure as well as threats after his removal spells and Hero's Downfall for his planeswalkers.

Game three, there was a debacle where he cast a Downfall when he didn’t have the available mana to do so and we had to back the game state up a turn. Either way it went, I had a clear board presence, he was mana light and didn’t have enough time to kill enough of my creatures before I finished him off.

Finals: R/G Monsters

In the finals, I was matched against my friend again from earlier. This time I not only knew what he was playing a lot better, but hopefully I wouldn’t have to draw all of my lands. Game one seemed quite tense but I got him to a rather low life total. I got in some early damage with creatures but then his Xenagos, the Reveler clogged up the board for him. I thought my maindeck Reclamation Sage on his Courser was going to put me too far ahead, but that Xenagos foiled those plans quickly.

He had the Xenagos in both games and it was surprisingly effective. You may have to sideboard them out against any deck with Mantis Rider, but against every other deck, the planeswalker is just as good as he always was. After that, the board got majorly clogged once he played a maindeck Soul of Shandalar.

If you have not played against this card, man it’s tough. It does die to every removal spell but when your opponent is playing R/G Monsters, they have a plethora of beefy guys to overload your removal. The first strike on that guy is also amazing because nothing fights through it.

I was in a position where I needed to force through damage in order to win this game. Often we are hesitant to sacrifice our creatures to get through damage but that’s something you need to do depending on the situation. So, I played and ticked up my Sorin and then sent my team in. He did get a free kill on my Siege Rhino, but I forced through exactly eight damage leaving him at three life. Conveniently, my second Rhino dealt exactly that much damage. Although it took some correct sequencing and good combat math, I was able to take a turn or two and set up the right situation for me to win even though his board was becoming better and better.

After winning the first game one in the Top 8, I was feeling confident in my deck and my sideboard plan to get me through to the win. Again, because I knew he had Hornet Queen somewhere in his deck, I left in Bile Blight and Brought in Doomwake Giants. Hero's Downfall is also great in this match so it came in as well.

I started with a turn one Warden into leveling it and then a scry land on turn three. This decision was perhaps the hardest of the event. I did not have a fourth land but I did have two spells I could cast with my three mana. I also had two Siege Rhinos in hand so hitting my land drops was rather important.

The scry revealed a third Rhino! I tanked for a minute about whether I should bottom the Rhino, but who can beat three Rhinos?! In actuality, it was a close decision. I kept the third one on top because I had two other plays with my available mana which meant more turns for me to draw my lands. All of my threats are good so I would not be losing out on any missed plays and as long as I eventually draw a fourth land, I was certain of victory. Despite my opponent's strong Monsters draw including the Soul again, I was able to sequence my plays correctly.

My sequence went like this. Deathdealer, Reclamation Sage to kill Courser, draw Downfall to kill Stormbreath, finally find land to start the Rhino stampede. I did play two Rhinos in consecutive turns but instead of jamming the third one, I left it in my hand for two turns so I could set him up. I needed to find a second removal spell to kill the Soul of Shandalar. If I could do that, his defenses were not very intimidating.

I was patient and waited until the end of his turn. That way, he would have to decide whether to use his mana to kill my Heir of the Wilds or tap his lands to further his board position. After he used his mana, then I killed the Soul and that left him open to my attack plus Siege Rhino after combat to finish him off. Of course, he felt I got lucky top-decking the third Rhino, but in actuality, I set that up at the beginning of the game and had it in hand for half the game.

Overall it was a great tournament filled with great games of Magic. The deck performed above expectations and I would definitely recommend this version going forward. All of my maindeck choices were great except for switching one Downfall for one Abzan Charm.

Until next time,
Unleash the Abzan Aggro Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Evaluating Emerging Market Factors

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

It’s an exciting time in Magic finance, as the spring always is. Prices seem to do well in this time period, we have an evolving Standard format, we just came off a Modern Pro Tour, and there’s a ton of unreleased (and unspoiled) product to look forward to and speculate on. On top of all of that, we have moves being made by major market players that will likely shake things up.

So how do we best approach this? I’m most interested in looking at this from a macro, thousand-foot-view perspective, and today I want to weigh in on some subjects doing that.

‘Ware the Tax Man

Or not?

At this point it’s not just a weird maybe, maybe-not trend, it’s a fact. Prices historically rise in the spring, and it’s happening again this year.

The question, of course, is why? I think there are many factors involved, not the least of which is that with the holidays over and the snow and cold here to stay, people are staying indoors. And when you don’t have family driving you crazy to be indoors with, what do you do? You play Magic.

I think this is a somewhat universal truth (except, of course, in the southern hemisphere, perhaps?). But I also think there’s more to it.

I think the biggest factor is tax returns. Sure, people aren’t saddled with holidays bills—and that means a lot—but even more than that they’re getting those sweet, sweet tax returns back. People are notoriously bad at actually saving money for purchases, but tax returns? That’s found money! Sure, I’d love to buy that playset of Snapcaster Mages!

I realize this particular effect may be localized to the American market, but everything is connected. This is the period we see the blue-chip staples, like the duals Sig mentioned on Monday, take their annual rise. Sure, they’ll likely fall off some in the fall and winter, but they won’t drop back to point zero, and we’ll be right back here again a year from now, only with a higher starting point.

This holds true throughout, and the gains we’re seeing in Modern pieces that didn’t spike with the Pro Tour reinforce that.

Casual Still Rules

Even more than that, we’re seeing gains in the casual cards that don’t always make it on everyone’s radars but nonetheless rise. Remember when Magic 2015 came out we talked about how Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth would bottom out, but almost surely begin a steady rise after that, given its pedigree?

It’s happened, and the M15 version has almost doubled up. I still don’t think it’s a bad pickup at $7-8 in trade (and will be huge on my rotation list), but the point is this was easy to see coming. Other predictable recent cards like Crucible of Fire and Liliana Vess are making the same moves.

These things can be and are predicted, and they never fail to come through. Gilded Lotus has three printings but is on a tear on TCGPlayer. Keep your eye out on the forums (and this column, as it’s time I revisted casual favorites again), and you won’t miss the easy money.

Tiny Leaders Cannot be Ignored

I admit I wasn’t the first person on this train, and damned if I’ll be the last. While no one in my local area has shown any interest in this, numbers don’t lie. It’s no longer just the random foils that are being bought out across the internet, it’s stuff like Champion's Helm. That’s a good enough indicator of real demand to me, and I don’t think the ride is over on this quirky format.

I’m not an expert on the format (at all), but I recognize a real trend when I see one. I’m sure there are still targets out there worth getting in on (likely non-foil) and that’s where I’ll be targeting my efforts over the next week. Hopefully next week I can come back with an educated opinion rather than just spout off a few off the top of my head right now without great research.

Ah, what the hell. Order of Whiteclay foils have been bought out, and the original is under a buck still. Card seems great in the format.

TCGPlayer Goes Foreign

I posed this question to a random group last week: what do you do when you have an old, random foreign card worth $3-5? Buylists don’t want it, I can’t put it in the store binder because no one could read it, and it’s not a competitively-played card so no one knows what it does (I don’t remember exactly what it was, but some like $3 black card from a Portal set, not that it’s relevant to the discussion).

It feels bad to throw that thing in the bulk pile, but I know if I hold onto it it’s going nowhere. So what do we do with it?

The answer came to us just a few days later as TCGPlayer dropped the bomb: You can now buy and sell foreign cards on the site!

This is a big move. Not only will it gives players a non-eBay route to pick up or move these cards, but it finally gives dealers a real reason to buy them. This is a great boon for those of who move most of our stuff through buylist, and it’s a good development all around. Prices that had been all over the place (think Russian foil anything-playable) will now have a real baseline to work from. That’s a big deal.

Even more of a big deal is the fact that the way most retailers work (through Crystal Commerce), this inventory will be listed as a function of a multiplier of the original card. While this won’t fly for many cards with huge disparities, for some more run-of-the-mill stuff (think non-foil Japanese Lingering Souls or something) we’re going to see a real baseline being set, since so many foreign cards will exist right at that multiplier that will be uniform across a dealer’s selections.

Bottom line? Demand for foreign cards will rise slightly, and prices will be easier to track. That’s a big deal.




What do you guys think? It’s been a busy 2015 already, and I tried to round things up as best I could. Anything important I missed?

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler 88 on Twitter

Interview With Christine Sprankle

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

10353492_668400909894418_8400289791468977860_o

One of Magic's most dedicated cosplayers, Christine Sprankle has been portraying some of Magic's most iconic characters for years. She's been to Grands Prix, Pro Tours and she's even been commissioned by Wizards to help them spoil new characters by having her costume ready in advance when the character was announced.

Christine is a Magic player and most of her cosplay is Magic characters, which has really helped endear the community to her and cement her as a community favorite. From helping to spoil Emmara Tandris to her (Masques) Brainstorm cosplay to her now-iconic Elspeth, fans have a lot to choose from. Recently, Sprankle sat down with SheAttack.com writer and Magic Judge Amanda Stevens. They talked about Christine's original foray into Magic cosplay, her favorite characters, characters she's working on and how she spends her non-cosplay Magic time. It's a great interview and a quick read.

You can read the entire interview transcript here.

Personally, I love her Masques Brainstorm cosplay, which may be due to the work I do on BrainstormBrewery.com. What's your favorite Sprankle role? Is this your first time hearing about her? Which cosplay would you like to see her attempt next? Leave it below.

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

Posted in Free1 Comment on Interview With Christine Sprankle

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Finance 101: The Resources You’ll Need

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

This is cross-posted here as part of a partnership with www.empeopled.com.

soulsummons

Getting into the wide web that is "Magic finance" is not an easy thing to do. You'll see tons of websites, articles, Twitter comments, and any other form of advice possible, and it can be a lot to take in.

So today I want to break it down in a more simple way: Where to start.

You can read the full article here.

Avatar photo

Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

View More By Corbin Hosler

Posted in Feature, Finance, FreeLeave a Comment on Finance 101: The Resources You’ll Need

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

FKK Limited Focus: Aggressive Two-Drops in Fate Reforged

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Earlier this week, I touched on the fact that while red is probably the weakest color in Fate Reforged, players are overcompensating for that fact and leaving it wide open in drafts. But that article really only touched on the best red cards, and I think that aggro in general is better in FKK Draft. A large part of that is that there are a number of two-drops in each color that have sped up the format significantly. Today, let's touch on some of the best two-drop beaters from the new set.

White

wanderingchampion soulsummons

In a format where players often aren't sticking a creature until turn three, a three-power two-drop with upside is pretty darn good at getting the clock going. Soul Summons is effectively just a marginally better Travelling Philosopher, but it attacks for two on turn three, which is what's most important here.

While not a two-drop, Sandsteppe Outcast is another big tool for white aggro decks. I do not believe I have chosen the +1/+1 counter even once, and that's because two bodies, including one flyer, are so much better with Trumpet Blast, Rush of Battle, and War Flare in the format.

sandsteppeoutcast

One last two-drop to discuss in white: Arashin Cleric. This should most decidedly not be making it into your aggro decks, despite being a two-drop. The life gain doesn't matter and the one power is just plain bad. That said, because aggro is better, this card becomes a powerful sideboard card for control decks. Keep that in mind if you're going the slow route.

arashincleric

Blue

Like white, blue has a couple two-drops I quite like.

frostwalker jeskaisage

I won a draft with a two-Frost Walker deck recently. It never once hit my opponents, even when played on turn two, but it traded up for morphs like Abzan Guide every time I played it. This thing takes 20 percent of an opponent's life total, so you can expect opponents to trade off when possible. If they get stuck on mana, this is going to end the game quickly. If not, it will trade with something as good or better than it. I will note that I prefer to trade this off as soon as possible—I don't want to give my opponents a chance to Aven Surveyor for value.

Jeskai Sage is not the most insane in an aggro deck, although with manifest running around, blue decks have a much easier time both hitting prowess triggers and creatures. Write Into Being is my favorite follow-up play after a turn-two Sage. Sultai Skullkeeper is fine, especially if you have lots of delve in your deck, but I find Fate Reforged to be deep enough that I tend to end up with more Wetland Sambars in my deck.

Black

Black is not the most aggressive color in Fate Reforged, but it does pack one of the most powerful two-drops:

battlebrawler

If you can play this on turn two and follow up with a red or white permanent on turn three, most opponents are going to have a hard time winning from that point. I'm glad this is an uncommon, because facing three or four of these would be a nightmare.

Sultai Emissary is a fine two-drop, but I prefer it as a speed bump in control decks.

Red

I covered red earlier, so you know my favorite twos here:

marduscout humbledefector

It's also worth pointing out Smoldering Efreet, which is not by any means an early pick but is fine filler, especially if you're light on two-drops. It's a slightly worse Traveling Philosopher, but the downside hardly matters if you're playing it in the right decks.

One last card I want to discuss from Khans of Tarkir:

valleydasher

I am quite sure I never once cast this card in triple Khans, but in this new format, I think it's much improved. Playing this on turn two is a great way to get the beats started quickly, and if you draw it late, you can hold it until you're ready for a surprise alpha strike. Don't get me wrong: I don't think it's a high pick by any means, but it's way more playable and should be kept in mind if you're dedicated to aggro.

Green

Green is by far the least aggressive color in Fate Reforged, with only one new two-drop you might want to play in aggro, and not necessarily a good one at that:

ainokguide

This card appears to offer options, but it is such a feel-bad to use its search function. Obviously the card would be insane if the land went to your hand, but talk about strictly better than Sylvan Ranger, right?

With cards like Temur Sabertooth and Whisperer of the Wilds, green is more suited to midrange play in Fate Reforged. There's just not a ton for aggro here.

You're the Beatdown

It's amazing how much a single pack can change a draft format, but I'm sensing that the FKK is a turn or two faster than triple Khans. Have you been having success with aggro with Fate Reforged added to the mix? Are you drafting with aggro in mind, picking up low drops for your sideboard? Let me know what you think of the format and how best to win in it.

Insider: Is Tasigur Exactly What Modern Delver Needs? Shaping Grixis Delver

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

I don't disagree that Treasure Cruise was too good for Modern. It was clearly a mistake to print the card at all, and its banning was inevitable.

I sure do miss it, though.

I played Delver of Secrets in Modern when it was bad, and seeing it become arguably the best deck in the format brought me a lot of joy. Interestingly, while the card advantage provided by Treasure Cruise was clearly obscenely powerful, the real boon for the Delver decks was a way to go over the top of Abrupt Decay while maintaining their efficiency. As things stand, there's another delve spell that could also give Delver the shot in the arm that it needs to keep up with midrange decks.

Interestingly, it's a card that has found a home in the midrange decks themselves:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Tasigur currently has a reputation of being more of a midrange creature. I wonder if we'd feel the same way if Treasure Cruise were never printed--a universe in which we would likely see Hooting Mandrils show up in both Legacy and Modern.

Tasigur's ability is clearly a boon, but I have reason to believe that even as a 4/5 with delve, he would still see a lot of play. Odds are that he wouldn't be legendary if that were the case, but still. I mean, Gurmag Angler showed up in at least two constructed decks at the Pro Tour. The mechanic is busted, and being hyper-efficient is what caused Tarmogoyf to push eternal formats towards playing creatures in the first place.

The popularity of Lingering Souls is somewhat problematic for Delver decks, but Tasigur and Young Pyromancer are both threats that can overpower the token-generating menace in some scenarios. Tempo plays like Mana Leakinging one side of Souls and attacking into two tokens with Delver and killing a token before damage can be reasonable as well. A copy of Electrolyze or two will also go a long way.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lingering Souls
There was an error retrieving a chart for Electrolyze

With a spell suite that leaves Delver favored against combo decks and creature decks alike, if Tasigur can enable the deck to beat the various flavors of Abzan, then it would be a great choice in Modern. I'm completely sold on Tasigur, and the question now is: what else, if anything, we want to do with out black splash?

I don't like discard in Delver. When you play a tempo deck, your opponent will often die with a lot of cards in their hand. Discard is great if you only care about a small set of cards and you can win very quickly. Tempo decks tend to benefit more from counterspells, not only because your low mana curve causes you to care about a lot more spells, but also because you don't just trade one for one--you also eat some of your opponent's mana.

Further, if Burn is going to continue to be anywhere near as popular as it was on the Pro Tour, then I don't like the idea of playing a third color and needing to aggressively fetch for dual lands of that color. Inquisition of Kozilek is awesome against Burn, but if you crack a fetch for a Watery Grave, then you've probably damaged yourself as much as the spell you forced them to discard would.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inquisition of Kozilek

Young Pyromancer and Tasigur both incentivize the inclusion of Gitaxian Probe, and, if I'm going to play Probe, I really don't want to have to fetch for a ton of untapped duals. As such, I want my black and red splashes to both be as light as possible. It's hard to get around needing double red just by playing Snapcaster Mage and Lightning Bolt in the same deck, but by minimizing our black splash, we can make the manabase a lot less painful.

As of now, the only non-Tasigur spell I want to maindeck is Terminate. Terminate kills opposing Tasigurs, is another awesome slot against Splinter Twin and Loxodon Smiter decks alike, and gains a lot of stock with fewer Voice of Resurgence and Kitchen Finks in the format.

Dismember is also an option, but I see the upside on Terminate being higher--particularly if we're making our splash light in order to save life. Slaughter Pact is another card to keep in mind, though I'm more likely to relegate that one to the sideboard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Terminate

This is the maindeck I have drawn up:

Modern Grixis Delver

spells

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Young Pyromancer
4 Snapcaster Mage
3 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
3 Spell Snare
1 Remand
4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
1 Thought Scour
1 Electrolyze
1 Vapor Snag
3 Terminate

lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Polluted Delta
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Darkslick Shores
1 Steam Vents
1 Watery Grave
1 Blood Crypt
2 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp

It doesn't look like much, but it has me pretty excited.

While Tasigur has been adopted by a lot of decks, I think this could be his strongest home. Decks like Tasigur Twin shoehorned Tasigur as an alternate wincon, the Abzan decks play Tasigur as just another midrange fatty, and decks like the one that Patrick Chapin brought to the Pro Tour try very hard to make fast Tasigurs.

Grixis Delver does something that none of these decks do, and that is seamlessly integrate him as an efficient threat in an efficient, aggressive strategy.

Most of my time is currently being dedicated to testing Standard, so I haven't gotten in any games as of yet. After the Minnesota PTQ next weekend, I will definitely be putting this together on MTGO and doing some battling.

Theoretically, the deck is sound. My biggest concern is that the mana might be too painful, but I'm optimistic.

Sleeve it up and report back on your thoughts in the comments!

Financial Relevance

I've said it time and again, but Steam Vents is a card you should already have your playset of. They are slowing increasing in price as we speak, and supply won't be increasing any time soon. If you don't have a set to play with and want to play Modern, get them now. They're getting a little steep to speculate on, but they're certainly trending upward.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Steam Vents

The other card of financial interest in this deck is Snapcaster Mage. Snapcaster is already in the process of spiking, and is up around $40 at the time of this writing. Cheaper copies should be snapped up and you should be on the lookout for them in binders. At $40, there is probably still some room to grow. And with no reprint coming in Modern Masters 2015, that price shouldn't go down for some time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

~

Next weekend I'll be PTQing and PTQQing with Choromanticore Delve, so hopefully I'll have good results to report. After that I'll be able to focus more on playing with this deck. If there is a version of Delver that is able to hack it in the current metagame, I think this is it.

Have any other ideas on how to keep Delver relevant in a Modern infested with Lingering Souls? Let me hear your ideas in the comments!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Gray Areas: Conceding in the Face of Unintentional Draws

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

A couple friends of mine flew out to Grand Prix New Jersey last year to play in "GP Treasure Cruise is still legal". My friend Kyle made a deep run into the tournament, and actually found himself in a win and in for Top 8. The tiebreaker math was a little unclear for the last round, and he thought he was only playing for Top 16, but either way he was playing an important match against an unknown player.

Kyle gravitates towards slower decks, and he and his opponent found themselves pretty far into the round before they started their third game. At this point in time, Kyle and his opponent agreed that they very much did not want to draw, and that one of them should concede if things came down to turns.

Push came to shove, and when turn five rolled around Kyle controlled a Jace, the Mind Sculptor and was clearly ahead of his opponent. I don't recall all of the particulars, but nobody had threats in play but Kyle was obviously ahead with his active Jace and had considerably more cards in hand. He might have had Counter-Top as well, but even just with the Jace he was in a commanding position. At the end of the round Kyle's opponent reneged on his promise, and seeing as Kyle was obviously winning they ended up with a draw.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Now, this scenario is pretty clear cut. Kyle was in commanding position and his opponent made a promise. His opponent obviously should have conceded and he basically stole a Grand Prix Top 8 and a PT invite from Kyle.

Other times, things are not so clear. Just to give another scenario, I was playing at 3-0 with RUG Delver in an SCG Open a couple years ago and I was paired against Miracles. My opponent won a long game one and I won game two without doing much playing. Game two dragged on specifically because my opponent spent a lot of time spinning his Sensei's Divining Top.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sensei's Divining Top

In game three I had gotten my opponent down to two life while he set up Counter-Top and killed all of my creatures. Time was called, and on turn five he asked for a concession. At 3-0 in a nine round tournament, a draw was actually worth slightly more than a loss, and I technically had outs in the form of the two Fire // Ice left in my deck coupled with some clever play and some bad draws from my opponent.

More importantly, I have had approximately three unintentional draws in my entire life. I play quickly, and there's no way that I used even half the round time that my opponent did. The draw wasn't terrible for either of us and I didn't see it right to reward my opponent for playing a slow deck slowly, especially when I did have outs. I declined and we drew.

Comically enough, I merely cashed the tournament while my opponent Top 8'd, so it's not like he lost anything.

The question is, under what circumstance do you concede on turn five of extra turns? Does board state matter more, or do you factor in your opponent playing slowly? Perhaps you're in the camp that never concedes, as you believe that players should have to earn all of their wins in a specific fashion. Chime in in the comments on how you handle turn five scenarios.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for February 18th, 2015

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of February 17th, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively. Note that it usually takes about a month after a set releases on MTGO for it be available for redemption, so expect FRF to be redeemable in the first week of March.

Overall, it is very evident in the Weekly Change values for MTGO that prices have stated to rebound from the lows reached during FRF release events. Prices are still depressed relative to last month though, indicating there is some potential for higher prices over the coming weeks as the MTGO economy normalizes with the conclusion of release events.

feb17

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

The outlook for both RTR and GTC is positive; with recent price increases in paper, it looks like these sets have established themselves in a steady uptrend. With prices on MTGO only starting to show a little strength, it’s only a matter of time before paper prices start dragging digital prices up through the redemption mechanism. With the end of FRF release events, it's safe to assume the outlook on these sets is for higher prices in both the short and medium term.

M14 is the one redeemable set that is still in the midst of a slide in price. This set is definitely approaching ‘good value’ territory as it gets closer to its post-rotation low from October. Paper prices might have stabilized, and so a turn higher could be imminent.

Keep an eye on Archangel of Thune, Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze for cards that are value-priced, relative to their potential in Modern. Chandra, Pyromaster has been falling in price due to a drop in utility in Standard, but a change of fortunes for that card in the Standard metagame would set the stage for a nice price bump.

Theros Block and M15

Although prices have risen in the past week on these sets, this really is a risky time to start considering taking any substantial positions in cards from these sets. As we get closer to the Spring, prices across the board will start coming under pressure with thoughts of the nicer Summer weather as well as the pending Fall rotation. Once a downtrend reasserts itself on the rotating sets, it’s best to avoid all potential specs in these sets.

That being said, choosing selective targets is okay at the moment, if the risks and rewards are well understood. A good rule to heed though is to avoid speculating on non-mythic rares from sets that are due to rotate, as these really have no backstop when prices start trending down.

With all of this in mind, consider Pharika, God of Affliction from JOU. This card found the 5 tix price level to be pretty reasonable back in November, before taking off and peaking at around 18 tix at the end of December. Now it’s back down to around 5 tix again, and with a Standard format that is cycling through various archetypes, the possibility of a graveyard themed deck shining for a few weeks is a good one.

Still considering JOU, it’s time to sell Eidolon of the Great Revel as it has hit a recent high of around 13 tix. Burn is a powerful force in Modern, but can be hated out of contention if players really don’t want to lose to it. There might be a couple of more tix of potential in this one as the Modern MOCS is just under four weeks away, but it’s also nice to get out of a spec while supply is still low and bots are eager to stock up.

Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged

KTK looks like it’s about as cheap as it’s going to get before it stops being drafted. There is only one card over 10 tix, a rare situation for a set currently in Standard. Starting to accumulate the playable mythic rares from this set is a prudent move.

Once DTK is released, there will be upward pricing pressure on all KTK cards as the supply from drafters slows down. Keep this in mind over the next six weeks, though the possibility that DTK contains the allied fetch lands is a risk to KTK's ultimate value.

Meanwhile, FRF is seeing a slight bump in price this week at the tail end of release events. This comes largely on the back of Whisperwood Elemental and Shaman of the Great Hunt, both of which were seen powering up various red-green strategies in Standard this past weekend. As drafting continues, prices in FRF will find their level, but for now the situation is still fluid, so seeing short-term swings like this is not uncommon.

Modern

The Modern metagame is stabilizing online and with it the price of many cards. Some cards are still on the rise, some have reached a stable price and others are clearly on the decline. With a little less than two weeks of play in the current Modern MOCS season, it is time to consider closing most of your Modern positions.

Losing positions at this point may never rebound and may actually keep dipping. Remember that Modern Masters 2015 is only three months away and the fear of reprints is likely to freeze prices or drop them significantly as spoilers are revealed.

Cards from sets excluded from MMA2015 reprints—M13, M14, Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks—won’t be affected the same way and are likely to keep cycling as Modern prices usually do. Keeping cards from these sets past February, even after a little dip from their current prices, doesn’t hold any particular risk of price depreciation in the long run.

Vintage and Legacy

These two formats have been at a standstill for many months now. Vintage hasn’t caught on as many expected and card prices from Vintage Masters have been flat or slightly down on average. Last week’s announcement about the changes in the Daily Events schedule is expected to revitalize these formats in an attempt to "build the Vintage community."

This might as well be a tipping point for any Vintage and Legacy specs. Staples in both formats such as Force of Will and dual lands may be good speculative targets if, hopefully, Vintage and Legacy can establish themselves and start to grow.

Pauper

In the same announcement, more Pauper Daily events are being added “Due to popular demand.” This is exciting news for players and speculators, especially if this format is already backed by player demand. Several commons sustained a high price in the past simply based on Pauper popularity.

A rule of thumb for MTGO speculating on any given card is that the older the set, the scarcer the supply, and thus the higher the price. Pauper staples have included Lotus Petal, Ancestral Mask, Quirion Ranger, Crypt Rats, Glistener Elf, Spire Golem, Delver of Secrets, Ninja of the Deep Hours, Chittering Rats and Diabolic Edict. More speculative targets can be found by checking the Pauper metagame on Mtggoldfish.com

Trends on Pauper speculations have not been easy to predict in the past but can lead to great profits during popular times of the Pauper format and when bulk commons suddenly rise to 1 or 2 tix. Considering the average prices of these types of investments can be particularly well suited for small bankrolls.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Pharika, God of Affliction

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Standard

Eidolon of the Great Revel

Modern

Goblin Guide
MMA Cryptic Command
Daybreak Coronet
Fulminator Mage
MMA Knight of the Reliquary
MMA Lightning Helix
MMA Pact of Negation
Ranger of Eos
Slippery Bogle
Steel Overseer
MMA Tooth and Nail
Flames of the Blood Hand
Smash to Smithereens

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation