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Ryan and Jens discuss the current state of Standard, Limited and Modern with the results from SCG Regionals and Pro Tour Fate Reforged. Ryan champions five-color constructed decks while Jens is more interested in 2-color limited strategies.
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There’s no time I feel more like an “official” financial writer than these four opportunities I get a year to analyze Hasbro’s official report to investors. I know this is kind of a dry subject, but I actually do get excited to write about it. At least, I do when there’s good news to report.
And, to get this out of the way up front, there is! 2014 was another year of growth for Magic: The Gathering, and Hasbro always makes note to praise Magic even when they’re hiding in overall growth.
And quickly we come to my biggest problem with Hasbro’s annual reports: there’s no itemization. They say things like “Core Brands were up 31%” which means very little to us. Yes, Magic is one of those Core Brands, and they note specifically that it was up, but numbers are rarely given, and numbers are where we like to live.
Still, there’s plenty to glean from this report, even if it’s stuff we think we already know. I think having a historical record of these in article form does us all a service in the future, so I’m going to do what I can today.
So let’s dig in.
First off, that’s a ton of money, right? Just saying, I see why they use the fancy hotels for players at Pro Tours.
But moving past that, let’s see what Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner (or, at least, his report) had to say.
“Growth in Franchise Brands MAGIC: THE GATHERING and MONOPOLY, as well as SIMON and THE GAME OF LIFE in 2014, was offset by declines in DUEL MASTERS, TWISTER and ANGRY BIRDS games.”
Bad news for Twister, I guess. But good news for Magic. Again, no numbers, but it’s clear enough that Magic is up year-to-year (this means, simply put, that in 2014 Magic grossed more than in 2013).
I could print some more blah-blah from the filing that we already know from that one sentence above, but I’d rather move quickly into the Q&A segment of the earnings call. After all, all the fun (and the good information) happens when those from fancy firms get to put our friend Brian on the hotseat.
Greg Badishkanian (Analyst - Citigroup):
Great. Thanks. Just going back to the US POS that was positive in 2015, which brands really stood out? Did anything change in terms of momentum you saw in the fourth quarter?
Brian Goldner (President, CEO):
What I had said, Greg, was just to be clear, absence either a Beyblade or a Furby you would see positive POS in the fourth quarter for our brands. So what speaks to is the underlying strength of our brands particularly our franchise brands.
Our franchise brand POS in the full-year was up 30% and revenues were up 30% as well. So we have seen strong growth in franchise brands obviously up some comparisons in comparing Furby and Beyblade obviously have some impact to overall POS.
And then of course Magic: The Gathering in the US is outside of 80% of that business is outside of the NPD data or the POS data. And we have said that Magic was up both in full year it was up quite strongly in the fourth quarter with the new Khans of Tarkir launch and release which has been very popular among players.
Takeaway:
From what I understand of fancy business lingo, POS stands for “Point of Sale.” In other words, direct Hasbro sales are up 30%. But the reason I bring this up is because Brian went out of his way to mention Magic, and to state that Khans has sold well. That’s not something I think he does if the numbers aren’t really good.
Taposh Bari (Analyst - Goldman Sachs):
Good morning. I had a question on capital allocation. It is nice to see that you are raising your dividend as well as your buyback authorization this morning. But I was hoping you can speak to your philosophy, and specifically acquisition criteria and where acquisitions fall on your list of cash priorities?
Brian Goldner (President, CEO):
Thank you for the question. If you look over the last five years, this management team has returned 143% of net earnings to its shareholders via both the dividend and the share buyback. Last year nearly $680 million returned, $217 million of which was in a dividend, $461 million of which was in buybacks. Deb will talk more about capital structure.
But you have a management team that is very committed to returning excess capital to shareholders. We still also believe strongly in investing in our business and we are also building our brands and innovation, insight and storytelling capabilities organically as we speak and certainly we think given the global growth potential of something like Magic: The Gathering and its strong profitability that it enjoys, investing in that brand for longer-term growth is certainly warranted and I think something our shareholders would support.
Takeaway:
I actually find this one of the most interesting points raised here, because one of the things I’ve personally worried about over the last few years can be distilled down to one basic question:
How long can the ride last?
We’ve seen huge year-over-year growth in Magic over and over again in the past five years. It’s been a great run, and we’ve all benefitted from it. But recently the basic question of when will it end has been forefront on my mind. After all, all of these great years can’t last forever, we know that, so when we saw Magic’s third-quarter earnings take a slight dip in 2014 it was a cause for pause, if not concern.
So to see that Hasbro’s CEO is still confident enough to go out of his way to mention the long-term growth of the game (albeit internationally, though that’s to be expected), is heartening.
Deb Thomas (SVP, CFO):
The other things that are impacting our margin and we did see an improvement in our gross margin this year and that was due to the success of our brands particularly our franchise brands. But one of the headwinds that we talked about for next year is foreign exchange. Many of our product costs are denominated in US or Hong Kong dollars which have stayed pretty stable as the US dollar has strengthened against foreign exchange.
So while over the longer term we do have the opportunity, as Brian was saying, to really adjust for the currency impact because of the rate and piece of the change, it had a more significant impact for us in the fourth quarter but will continue to have an impact to us in 2015.
So as far as hedging as you know, we hedge a substantial amount of our product purchases but not all of it. And I think on a blended basis, we have hedged about just under 70% for 2015. So we will continue to be impacted by currency from that and we will continue to invest in Magic: The Gathering online and in projects that create the longer-term cost efficiencies.
As we discussed previously, we are making investments in our business including our digital capabilities with Magic: The Gathering, and Backflip where we have increased staff and had a full year of expense versus 2013.
Takeaways:
Magic Online is finally mentioned! Though of course there’s no reference to Hearthstone, we do get — for the second straight reportings — that Hasbro is investing in the future of Magic Online. I don’t know if this means they’re hiring additional people, spending on better developers or simply buying more server space, but it’s something besides the nothing most people assume Hasbro brings to Magic Online. They clearly are aware of what is happening in the digital market, and I wonder when these “investments” will begin to show something.
Sean McGowan (Analyst - Needham and Co.):
Okay, thanks. You may have said this in the remarks and maybe I didn't catch it clearly, what was the performance of Magic in the fourth quarter? Was that up?
Brian Goldner (President, CEO):
It was, yes.
Sean McGowan (Analyst - Needham and Co.):
Can you just remind us why the change from two sets -- I mean from four to two sets?
Brian Goldner (President, CEO):
We actually for 2015, there are a couple of things going on so there are more than two initiatives that are going on that will launch in 2015. We will have two sets but then we also have an additional, the core set, so in fact it is a transition and the team has got some pretty robust storytelling plans around that brand.
And again, we are very excited about what we are seeing in Magic. The momentum in Magic continues. The number of Friday gaming sessions has increased. We are up to nearly 7000 every Friday where fans are getting together to play.
We have additional tournaments this year around several of the releases. By summer we will have a tournament that will actually take place in three different countries around the world. So in fact, I think Magic and opportunity for Magic players to play face to face in a number of different ways increases throughout the year.
Takeaways:
That’s a lot of numbers, and there’s no stronger statement in the report regarding the current health of the game. Hasbro executives continue to be excited about the game, and that can only mean one thing:
It’s still making them (and by extension, us) a lot of money.
Thanks for reading,
Corbin Hosler
@Chosler88 on Twitter
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Greetings!
As I've done after the last couple Pro Tours, today we'll be doing a quick breakdown of how much it would cost to enter Modern, assuming that once you were done with the deck after an event or season, you were planning to buylist off the pieces.
Of course, since Modern is a non-rotating format, there's one little thing that will be different: we'll be ignoring card depreciation as described in the aforelinked article. Modern cards aren't subject to rotation, so although card values fluctuate wildly, we can't with confidence say by how much over how long. Additionally, more often than not, the fluctuations are the cards gaining value, not losing it. But since this is all much less predictable than Standard card values over time, we're just going to assume your deck value will stay roughly the same.Â
Six decks each put more than ten players through to Day 2 at Pro Tour Fate Reforged. We'll assume these six decks make up the new pillars of the format, at least until metagaming thrusts new decks into the limelight. Also, we're going to go with maindecks only today, because there are a ton of sideboard options for this format, and sideboards really are best constructed with a particular event and metagame in mind.
With 28.3 percent of the Day 2 field, Abzan completely dominated the Constructed portion of this event, never mind that it didn't actually win. Unlike the Jund decks of two or three years ago, however, these lists varied a little more from each other than one might expect.
Let's go with Eric Froehlich's list, which earned him a Top 8 slot and some real discussion as a potential Hall of Fame candidate.
Holy expensive deck, Batman! Coming in at over $1800 retail, this deck has a whole lot of pricey staples. It buylists for around $1200, however, so you could rent this deck for an indeterminate amount of time for about $600, which hurts a lot less if you're grinding with it quite a bit.
But really, who should play this deck? First of all: boring people who want to contribute to horrible mirror matches and a stale metagame. Second of all: people who already have a lot of these cards.
Why go out and buy Noble Hierarchs, Tarmogoyfs, and Zendikar fetch lands when that $1000 could be cut significantly by Modern Masters 2015? We know a Liliana of the Veil reprinting is on the way through the new PTQ system, so that's not an attractive purchase at the moment, either. There's even a bunch of cards that are likely inflated in part from Standard, like Siege Rhino and Tasigur, the Golden Fang.
It just doesn't make any sense to buy into Abzan at the moment, but if you already have most of the big stuff, this is the big bad wolf of the format right now. Fans of Modern coverage, however, request that you do not play the deck. Thanks.
Seth Manfield provided quite a story over the weekend, winning 12 straight rounds and and then nearly missing Top 8 after losing rounds 13 through 15. He played Burn, which is financially the opposite end of the spectrum from Abzan.
Here we have a $600 deck that will buylist out for roughly $425. If you're looking to pick up a deck for just a few events, this is a nice budget version. All the fetchlands are basically interchangeable with any red fetches you already have (meaning you can play Mires over Tarns), and the main card at risk from Modern Masters 2015 is the $20 Goblin Guide.
Except for the red mages among us, both spectators and your opponents will dislike you playing this deck, so it's perfect not just for budget players, but for trolls. This description fit 12.4 percent of the Day 2 Pro Tour field.
Nobody made Top 8 with Infect, but 7.4 percent of the day-two field was running the deck, and Jon Finkel himself managed a tenth-place finish with it.
This is basically another budget deck, coming in at around $530, or only $180 after buylisting, which means this is another good one-event or one-season deck. Noble Hierarch keeps this from being a true budget build, but I wouldn't recommend playing the deck without a playset of the dork; the ramp plus incidental pump on your infect creatures is crucial to the deck's game plan.
We've seen Infect drift in and out of the metagame before, and if Lingering Souls continues to be a major player in the format (it saw play in a lot of Abzan decks last weekend), poison might not be a viable win condition for long.
In any case, it's interesting to see Become Immense as a four-of. I assumed it was a two- or three-of when I saw it in play last weekend, but I guess this deck feels confident in its ability to fill the graveyard. Perhaps foils of the uncommon are a good pickup?
Affinity continues to put up results, with 6.6 percent of the Day 2 field running the deck. Nobody made the Top 8 with the deck, but Frank Karsten was in the running for much of the event.
There's nothing new here, really. If you are already playing Affinity, you will likely continue to play Affinity unmolested. If you want to play Affinity, there shouldn't be much keeping you from doing so (financially), other than perhaps Mox Opals, but that is getting printed at mythic if at all in Modern Masters 2015, so it's not like the price will just crash altogether.
And seriously, these budget decks just keep getting cheaper, because this one retails for only $465. The "rental" fee after buylisting would only be $150, which is pretty good for a tried-and-true player in the format. It's kind of funny that the archetype that almost broke Magic back in the Mirrodin days largely flies under the radar in a format so prone to bannings.
Zoo was the next highest-represented deck, with 5.4 percent of the Day 2 metagame. Steven Rubin played a relatively stock list with one spicy piece to keep things interesting:
Again we see Become Immense, this time not even in Infect. The moral of the story here is that delve is a really, really powerful mechanic, and banning Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time has opened up slots for cards like Tasigur and Become Immense. Which other delve cards are potentially Constructed-playable?
This is a deck that might trick you into thinking it's a budget brew, until you notice that there are four Tarmogoyfs. Goblin Guides seem downright cheap in comparison. Sure, you could play the deck with Scavenging Ooze or Voice of Resurgence or something, but I'm not a fan of playing sub-optimal versions of decks.
Zoo is enough of a pet deck that I would assume you're playing it already if you were interested, but if you're thinking of getting into it, you might as well start picking up the pieces and keeping an eye on 'Goyf's status in Modern Masters 2015 and (especially) its print run. The deck will currently run you $1325, but you'd get about $935 back after buylisting.
Splinter Twin is still around, and despite assumptions that it would be the new "best" deck, it only made up five percent of the Day 2 field. Antonio del Moral Leon won the event with this list:
Here's another one that breaks the $1000 mark, at about $1030, buylisting for about $700.
Thinking of playing this deck? Here are some things to consider:
I'm not going to skip out on Justin Cohen's Amulet Bloom deck, which almost won the event, just because it was less than two percent of the Day 2 metagame.
Despite Amulet of Vigor jumping a bit over the weekend, this really is a budget deck, coming in at around $425 and buylisting for $270. Given Cohen's and Sam Black's (his roommate) description of the deck as a puzzle, this seems like a great deck for anyone who enjoyed playing Eggs before Second Sunrise was banned.
Of course, given what happened to Eggs, this seems like a risky venture if you're planning for the long term. Still, you could rent the deck for a season for around $150, which isn't bad if you're going to be grinding a bit. Just make sure it's a deck you enjoy playing.
I may be getting out of Modern for now, but I'm holding onto two major things: my fetchlands and my shocklands. Most of the decks above, as well as other decks in the format but not discussed here, require a few playsets of these lands. Shocklands are starting to gain after the Return to Ravnica block reprint, but they're still pretty cheap. Khans of Tarkir fetchlands are likely the lowest they will ever be, or close to it.
Only Zendikar fetchlands are risky acquisitions right now, but since everyone knows that, their prices have largely dropped in anticipation of a reprint. Even if picking them up isn't super attractive, there's certainly no reason to panic-sell them off.
Once you have your 40-sets of each of these two land types, Modern opens up to you in a big way. Many of these decks are very budget friendly—if you already have the lands. So if you're looking to get into Modern, that's where you should start. Otherwise, just keep an eye on how sweet Modern Masters 2015 looks.
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Welcome back readers! It's been two weeks since my last Stock Watch article, so it's time for another one. Let's jump right in.
#1 - Seize the Day (+274.2%) - I don't mean to brag too much on this one, but I've been saying for a while that the old single-print rares that play well with Narset were likely to get the Nekusar treatment. This is just the latest of many that have already jumped (Waves of Aggression being the first).
However, just like the Nekusar specs I don't think these jumps will fully stick. If you look back at one of the big Nekusar cards, Wheel and Deal, we saw a big spike from $1 to $4 and then a gradual decline back to $3. This isn't surprising as everyone wanted to build the new super powerful/synergistic commander at first and gradually some players lost interest or took the decks apart and traded off the components to build the next big thing.
#2 - Amulet of Vigor (+110.8%) - This jump is solely thanks to a Titan Bloom deck making Top 8 of the last Modern PT. The deck looks like a lot of fun to play (after all Prime Time was a blast to cast while he reigned supreme in Standard) and can be really powerful. However, it's still a bit of a glass cannon. If you can kill their Primeval Titans they have a real hard time winning.
Either way, this card previously spiked the last time the deck went big and then dropped back down in value (though nowhere near it's previous bulk status). If you have them, unload them now; despite the fact that they likely flew under the radar for a MMA2015 reprint, the deck has proven rather unstable.
#3 - Summer Bloom (+81.5%) - This one is tied to the same PT deck as Amulet of Vigor, though it has two printings and is only an uncommon. However, those two printings are Visions and 6th Edition, both sets that came out long ago, so the number in circulation is likely closer to that of a modern day rare than a modern day uncommon.
#4 - Ward of Bones (+78.5%) - This one isn't tied to any one particular deck (that I'm aware of), but rather a powerful card in any prison-style EDH decks. It can be a major beating if its controller can rush it out fast enough to lock down the board, but it's very "unfun" to play against, so it's really only going to appeal to griefer players. Having played both with and against it in EDH, I don't think its spike will hold, and it looks to me like a buyout.
#5 - Hive Mind (+60.2%) - This is the third card in our list tied to the Titan Bloom deck from the PT. Serving as an alternate win condition should your Titans get ko'd, it has only one printing in M10, and coupled with various Pacts can serve as a two-card combo in any format it's legal in. This is the only card of the top 5 which I think can actually maintain this new price (seeing as how the "big jump" only went from $2.50 to $4).
#1 - Force of Will (+11.22%) - Force has been on a tear lately and it's finally exceeded $100 on the average. With the banning of Treasure Cruise, Legacy has been shaken up quite a bit and it looks like people are falling back on old favorites, including this, the glue that holds the format together. This card is one of the major things that differentiates Modern and Legacy--without access to a powerful free counterspell we see a lot of midrange and combo decks in Modern but no real control ones.
#2 - Tarmogoyf (+5.07%) - Not surprisingly the king of creature efficiency is back on top. With a Treasure Cruise filled format, graveyards are often reduced to zero to one card pretty consistently and Tarmogoyf thrives most in a format in which both players have a stocked graveyard. I expect he'll continue upward given TC was banned in both Legacy and Modern.
#3 - Sneak Attack (-3.18%) - This one still hasn't really rebounded yet. A lot of people (myself included) expected to see a big resurgence in Sneak and Show with the banning of Treasure Cruise and all the tempo/control decks it held together. Legacy still has Dig Through Time which is arguably a better fit in the Sneak and Show deck anyways as it's a combo deck and the best two cards out of seven are far more useful than just the top three.
#4 - Wasteland (+2.52%) - With the banning of Treasure Cruise we'll likely see a shift away from U/R Delver decks back to the tri-color decks of pre-Khans Legacy. This means that the Wasteland/Stifle combo will pick up in power level and we'll see more ex-RUG Delver players returning to the flock.
#5 - Show and Tell (+2.43%) - This seems odd given the other half the deck is one of our biggest losers of the week. Sneak Attack saw a massive increase in price this year, whereas Show and Tell saw a much less dramatic jump, so it could be that the deck is slowly picking up steam, but the playerbase hasn't accepted the new Sneak Attack price yet.
I've decided to retire the term "value stocks," as the more research I did on the term the more I felt it's not appropriate for what we want to use here. From now on this section will be titled "Opportunities," which I think reflects the intent better.
This week's opportunities focus on the Tiny Leaders format. This format is rapidly growing in playerbase and while it's not supported like Modern was, any time a new format is created the staples of that format quickly jump in value as demand increases. I saved a lot of money when Modern was announced by buying a playset of all the original shocklands and other cards I assumed would be staples (like Cryptic Commands at $7.5). But enough of the past; let's look to the future.
#1 - Ertai, Wizard Adept - (Full disclosure: I own 32 copies of this guy already. I want to be up front about that not because I want everyone to go out and buy copies so his price goes up, but because it's important as a writer to not use your writing as a platform to inflate your own specs; I don't recommend you ever speculate on a card you don't 100% believe in).
Ertai has quite a few things going for him. He's mono-colored and a legend which means he can both be a general and can fit in the largest number of decks. He is a wizard which is a tribe that has a lot of options and support throughout Magic's history. His ability is quite powerful, he's blue, and most importantly, he's on the reserved list, so as long as that stands there won't be any more of him printed.
#2 - Back to Basics - Anyone who has played Modern knows just how powerful a Blood Moon can be and while Back to Basics may not completely screw someone out of playing a game, it can greatly slow them down (though it can still mana screw them hard enough that they are out whether they know it or not).
EDH is often a format of two-, three- and five-color decks where the total number of basics is often pretty low. Tiny Leaders is very similar, except given a smaller deck size the multicolor decks often play even fewer basics (typically 1-4 at most). Granted they also have a higher chance of drawing them thanks to deck size, the point is that the percentage of lands not affected by BtB in their deck is likely somewhere between 0-10%. BtB is also blue, which in eternal formats like Tiny Leaders often leads to it seeing more play.
#3 - Order of Whiteclay - I owe the heads up on this one to QS's Charles House who brought up its possibilities in the format. This card seems like a very powerful addition to any deck that utilizes creatures from its graveyard (or simply wants additional value out of the ones it's already lost). It's also mono-colored (in case you hadn't seen the theme so far, I think mono-colored cards have the most potential due to their ability to go into the most number of decks).
#4 - Engineered Explosives - Wrath effects are not that plentiful in this format (Toxic Deluge, Martial Coup, Black Sun's Zenith, Pernicious Deed, Gaze of Granite, Oblivion Stone, and maybe a couple others) and EE is one of the two that can go in any deck (with Oblivion Stone being the other).
EE used to be a $15-20 card before its Modern Masters printing and while it hasn't really found a home yet in Modern, it plays so well with Academy Ruins it will likely find a home eventually. It will mostly find its way into tri-color decks because there it can act as a complete board wipe more than in mono- or dual-colored ones, so its upside is somewhat limited there. However, it's always a great colorless way to beat decks that rely on tokens or one-drops.
#5 - Mental Misstep -Â Full disclosure: I own probably 60 copies of this card. While I originally speculated on this card with a hope for an eventual unbanning in Modern, it may just be too powerful for that format. Luckily, a new format was created where one mana represents 33.33% of the spell options for decks.
The fact that it's one of the format's few free counterspells (with Daze and Disrupting Shoal being the other two I can think of) and can be cast without reducing your next turn's mana options or giving you card disadvantage definitely means it's one of the best options. It's, again, mono-colored and blue, so it can go in a lot of possible decks and it's still really cheap right now (sub $0.75).
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A while back I turned you all on to the MTG Gore subreddit. It was painful to look at but it was like a trainwreck - I wanted to but couldn't look away. Dirty, wet and torn cards as far as the eye could see. It was harrowing to say the least.
I feel bad about inflicting that on all of you so I decided to show you the other side of the coin. Not all visual experiences have to be bad ones, so I have some examples of high-res wallpapers and scans from the MTG Porn subreddit. I know what you're thinking, but it's not Steve Argyle's sexy Liliana and Chandra playmat. It's stuff a little more like this.
Awwwww yiss. This is some background-worthy artwork. The subreddit is chock full of examples of great high res scans that make great images or wallpapers. Browse through and you may just find something you've never seen before but like a lot. I know I did.
I present to you the new desktop background on my computer.
Now that's what I'm talking about.
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This is cross-posted here as part of a partnership with www.Empeopled.com.
I write an article series on Magic (the topics therein get a little more far-ranging), and today I want to share a series I've started that I think readers here may find interest. The basic premise? Finance 101, something that gets mentioned a lot but maybe not always well explained. I hope to change that.
Let's start with something that isn't so important to the huge, overarching world of "Magic finance," but is of tantamount importance to those of us who are happy playing and doing well at Friday Night Magic every week: Financing your events.
You can read the full article here.
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I spent a long time looking for something interesting, novel, compelling or controversial and didn't really find anything. What I DID find was a very solid, thoughtful and well written piece by Adam Styborski. It's not flashy. It's probably not very good clickbait. To be honest, a lot of you are probably going to roll your eyes but a lot of you will read it.
Adam wrote about the Milestones some Pro players hit recently. As much as we focus on finance here at Quiet Speculation, occasionally we have to recognize the achievements of players who are doing truly amazing things. The last PT saw quite a few significant achievements.
- Andrew Cuneo, Jamie Parke, and the 1st-ranked Owen Turtenwald all found their 200th win in a Pro Tour Match.
- No. 8 and Pro Tour Hall of Fame player William Jensen notched his 300th on the Pro Tour, and likewise Hall of Fame player Brian Kibler earned a stunning 400th win.
Not bad at all.
Maybe Stybs' article isn't flashy, but it's really worth a read and I think you'll be as impressed with how thoughtfully crafted it was as well as how significant some of the accomplishments of our favorite pros are.
Let's get a discussion going. What was the most significant milestone of the last Pro Tour? Who are you rooting for to achieve something soon? Are the decks being played in high profile matches more exciting to you than the players piloting them? Sound off below.
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It's not often that IGN is relevant for MTG-related articles, but check this out. IGN has the first real information about the MTG board game that was announced last year.
It looks like the five planeswalkers rumored to be in Magic Origins will also be the ones represented in the MTG board game, now revealed to be titled Arena of the Planeswalkers. As you can see, it's a game for two to five players, and the miniatures look pretty darn good compared to a lot of the unpainted cubes that often get included with board games for cost reasons.
Even with pretty miniatures, IGN is reporting the MSRP to be "around $30," which is on the low end for this genre. The other information published today is the full contents list:
Wouldn't it be cool if the 60 spell cards included stuff like Force of Will and Damnation? I know it will never happen, but one can dream.
Hasbro says no prior experience with Magic is needed to play this game. Do you think this has a chance of pulling a large crowd of tabletop gamers into the MTG universe, or will it mostly be something that Magic players looking for some alternative fun will buy? Let us know about your excitement, or lack thereof, below.
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For the first half of last year I invested a lot of time into grinding QPs to qualify for multiple Magic Online Championship Series events. Most of my QPs came from 8-person events, which is the slow, painful and low EV way to do things. My schedule just didn't work well with the Daily Events schedule, and that's why I was very happy to see this announcement. The DE schedule now actively tries to make is possible for fans of any format to have a couple days a week to play their format of choice.
More Pauper support and a more concerned eye on scheduling Legacy events when they'll actually fire both make me very happy. While I don't really play either format online these days, it's still good to see those who do being supported.
There's still a lot of room for improvement with MTGO, of this I'm sure. Changes like this at least show that WotC is listening though. Not being a programmer, I don't know how much work goes into making all the changes that people want to see from MTGO, but I do know that making events more accessible is a great move for the program regardless of functionality otherwise.
Now if only we could get 5-3-2-2 drafts.
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407 players gathered in Washington D.C. this past weekend for an epic battle in the new lower-powered Modern format. Dig Through Time grabbed Birthing Pod and went on a Treasure Cruise to the banned list which drastically changed available archetypes for the pros.
After reading a lot of their retrospective articles about the event, I see that many of them came to the same conclusion. Tarmogoyf Control, in the vein of the Rock, with the flavor of Abzan, are the king of the hill.
The main way many pros chose to battle this enemy was with burn spells. Some players stayed true to other archetypes that have been around the Modern metagame for a while now. The following is the complete metagame breakdown for the 258 players that won their way into day two.
Abzan 73 28.30%
Burn 32 12.40%
Infect 19 7.40%
Affinity 17 6.60%
Zoo 14 5.40%
Blue-Red Twin 13 5.00%
Red-Green Tron 8 3.10%
Scapeshift 8 3.10%
Jund 7 2.70%
Storm 6 2.30%
White-Black Tokens 6 2.30%
Amulet Bloom 5 1.90%
Grixis Twin 5 1.90%
Jeskai Control 5 1.90%
Living End 5 1.90%
Merfolk 5 1.90%
Faeries 4 1.60%
Jund Loam 3 1.20%
Misc Decks with two or less copies 23 9.2%
[cardimage cardname='Tarmogoyf'][cardimage cardname='Liliana of the Veil']
The green Goyf giant might be reasserting his power once again, but there are still lots of options available in the format. I found it quite interesting that the Day 2 metagame breakdown looked extremely similar to the Day 1 breakdown. The field may have been smaller, but the archetypes were represented in basically the same amounts.
The two most played decks put multiple copies in the Top 8 and then two of the clear winners from the bannings rounded out the Sunday stage. Here’s the breakdown.
3 Abzan
2 Burn
2 Twin
1 Amulet Bloom
[cardimage cardname='Azusa, Lost but Seeking'][cardimage cardname='Vendilion Clique']
Although all the numbers only say Abzan, what we must remember is that there are lots of varieties of the three-color combination. Here are three examples of decks represented by the word Abzan.
As you can see, although these three decks play the same colors and do overlap on some cards, they are extremely different. This same type of deck construction is happening in Standard right now. There are good aggressive Abzan decks, solid midrange versions, as well as some combo versions with Whip of Erebos. In all honesty, that might bring Siege Rhino up in the ban discussion. I don’t want to be hasty--this is after all the first tournament with the newest banned list changes, but we may get to that point.
In fact, the other day we were discussing the bannings at my shop and I brought up Siege Rhino in reference to the Birthing Pod banning. While it’s true that Pod decks have been doing well at nearly every event for the past two years or so, there had to be something that pushed the deck over the top.
I mentioned Siege Rhino as the weight that tipped the scale. It wasn’t until Rhino was added to the Melira Pod strategy that we thought something needed banning. Both cards are clearly strong and combined together they do make for a potent combination. We will see if Rhino proves too good on its own. I know that I will be playing this beefy Bloodbraid Elf that always hits Lightning Helix and you probably should as well.
Getting back on topic, I want to bring up the metagame breakdown again. It seems like our metagame is going to boil down to Abzan vs. Burn with some Splinter Twin and a couple other strategies doing well from time to time.
It’s imperative to remember that pros tend to skew the expected meta perspective. So, the next time you go to a Modern event, you should not expect to play against mostly all opponents with these three decks.
Remember, Modern is an expensive format. Players often don’t switch decks quickly, if at all. Just because the pros did well with these couple archetypes doesn’t mean that all the rest of the diversity will disappear. You will still play against Living End, Tron, or whatever deck your opponent had built. They will be updated with new cards and adjusted for the new metagame, but there will always be a large selection of decks at any given event.
Take Jacob Wilson’s deck above, for example. His list is like combining the remnants of Melira Pod with some components of the Hate Bears deck and forming what I like to call a No Pod deck. This idea that decks that played Birthing Pod are dead is far from true. Wilson’s list is proof of that fact.
The cards that he played were all good on their own. Pod decks didn’t play bad cards, but they did play some sideboard style cards maindeck because of their ability to find any creature with ease. Now that Pod is banned, we are still left with a strong collection of creatures to pull from. This archetype isn’t going anywhere. In fact, I think this is one of the best places for innovation. Take a look at a deck I was working on six months ago that illustrates my point.
Back in August, I worked on this deck based on the idea that you didn’t need Birthing Pod to make a deck like this competitive. What I found at the time was that it was better against most of the decks in the field at the time, which are similar to what are legal now, but that it wasn’t as consistent in the mirror. Now that Pod is gone, and there is no mirror to be concerned about we can explore this deck and others like it once more.
There are many possibilities with former Pod decks, especially because we still have Chord of Calling to work with. So, if you were a Pod player, don’t give up on your favorite deck. Adapt. Develop a new list using the core cards from your previous one and keep moving forward. Modern is a huge format with lots of unexplored corners.
Have you done exactly this and innovated in the face of bannings? Start the discussion in the comments below. If not, use this article and my previous one as the spark to start the creative process.
After scouring the available deck lists from the Pro Tour, I noticed lots of Standard cards being played in Modern. The reason this is significant is that these cards are readily available right now. While players still have lots of copies in their trade binders, these cards are safe investments because of their Modern playability. Take a look at what Standard cards the pros brought to battle with.
[cardimage cardname='Tasigur, the Golden Fang'][cardimage cardname='Siege Rhino']
Both Tasigur and Rhino saw a lot of press in this event, but they also overperformed. These two seem like excellent long-term investments. We could even see price bumps on these creatures in a couple months when fewer packs are being opened. Rhino in particular should be double digits soon enough.
[cardimage cardname='Sorin, Solemn Visitor'][cardimage cardname='Thoughtseize']
You may not know this but one of the most popular Standard cards to see play in Modern was the latest version of Sorin. If we need ways to fight Burn, pumping all of your guys and giving them lifelink seems like a great way to survive. Thoughtseize as well, unsurprisingly, saw tons of play. I mention this sorcery because we are getting closer to it rotating from Standard which means you are running out of time to stock up at this price.
[cardimage cardname='Monastery Swiftspear'][cardimage cardname='Eidolon of the Great Revel']
Neither of these Burn cards are expensive right now, but they are both staples of the Modern Burn decks as well as seeing some play in Standard. You might not find Swiftspears in draft leftovers but plenty of players are willing to part with this uncommon easily. Eidolon might be at his floor as well.
[cardimage cardname='Courser of Kruphix'][cardimage cardname='Chord of Calling']
There were not a lot of players that brought Coursers to gain card advantage with, but moving forward they seem like a great way to succeed in the mirror. I also love it in any deck you are trying to combo with because you have some control over your draw step.
Now that Birthing Pod is gone, Chord is left to pick up the pieces and innovate with. It can’t get any lower than the already extremely low price so don’t miss this opportunity. I already have tons of copies of this card and I’m still buying.
[cardimage cardname='Ugin, the Spirit Dragon'][cardimage cardname='Anger of the Gods']
We all assumed that Ugin would slot right into Tron and we were all right. It is quite good in the deck as well except against Affinity. The most copies I saw in one deck was two, but it’s definitely going to be a mainstay of the archetype moving forward. If the deck could figure out a way to make double red, we could even see it utilizing Anger of the Gods. Other players used Anger as a potent sideboard option against the No Pod decks. The exiling creatures makes Anger a card that will see play for a long time to come.
[cardimage cardname='Ajani, Mentor of Heroes'][cardimage cardname='Deflecting Palm']
Now onto the more surprising cards. I never expected to see either of these two cards in Modern deck lists, but they both make sense with the expected metagame. Ajani will help in those grindy midrange mirrors and Palm is clearly one of the main tools players used to fight Burn.
[cardimage cardname='Jace, Architect of Thought'][cardimage cardname='Voice of Resurgence']
Next up we have some recently rotated cards that are as low as they can go. Voice is back with a vengeance and we are likely to see even more of this card moving forward. If you got out before rotation, now’s the time to get back in. This is a great long-term investment that could see short-term gains as well.
Jace AoT was a huge surprise for me and at first I thought it was a joke. Upon a moment's thought, Jace actually seems amazing in a field full of Lingering Souls. I imagine we will start seeing more of this planeswalker in the metagame.
[cardimage cardname='Scavenging Ooze']
Scavenging Ooze. We all know how good you are. What we don’t understand is your price tag. You are one of the best creatures in Modern, and yet you are still so cheap. Players will soon realize you are back and ready to rock, then your price will go up, just be patient.
[cardimage cardname='Loxodon Smiter'][cardimage cardname='Tempered Steel']
Lastly, we have our bulk bin picks of the week. You know about Loxodon Smiter seeing play because it’s in one of the Top 8 decks, but did you see Paul Reitzl’s deck? He was playing Tempered Steel Affinity! I’m surprised he did not do better, but he did have at least six wins in Modern with his list. Both of these cards should be snapped up from your local bulk bin immediately.
That’s all for today, Magic players. The Pro Tour is awesome and tons of fun to watch. So, until we qualify, we’ll just keep watching some great coverage of the best players and reaping the financial benefits. Make sure to post your thoughts about the financial implications of these or other cards in the comments as well as your thoughts on the format in general.
Until next time,
Unleash the Force on Modern!
Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com
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My disdain for Un-sets has been expressed before, but that's mainly because I think spending money on boosters of joke cards is inane and irresponsible. I do enjoy the jokes, and wouldn't mind seeing more silver-bordered cards made.
Currently, the only silver-bordered cards that are regularly produced are the holiday cards. We get one of these a year, and since they're all holiday-themed, the jokes are relatively narrow.
Even though I don't want to see a booster expansion of silver-bordered cards, I wouldn't mind seeing more than one a year. So that got me wondering: what other ways could Wizards distribute these cards that would be exciting to players but not financially disastrous for Legacy players or the company?
I propose that silver-bordered cards are a great place for exclusive promos. After early cards like Mana Crypt and Nalathni Dragon, Wizards shied away from making cards exclusive to one specific event or auxiliary product. Nowadays, the exclusive promos are cool versions of cards that already exist.
But what if Wizards started introducing exclusive silver-bordered cards through promos? Tournament players wouldn't need them. Large groups of casual players wouldn't really care either (although some would). Only collectors would really want them, and that's exactly why silver-bordered exclusives (like the holiday cards) are a perfect thing to introduce to the game.
My ulterior motive here, considering I would be firmly in the camp of people who would not care to own these, is that I would get to enjoy the Magic-related jokes and puns that silver-bordered cards provide. That's all I really want from it.
It wouldn't be a failed product for Wizards. Players would (presumably) not be upset. Collectors would have a new item to track down. It would give Mark Rosewater a chance to create the silver-bordered cards he so wants to make, and it would give us all a chuckle.
Am I wrong? Why hasn't Wizards done this yet?
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The next core set promises to be a little different. Called "Magic Origins", this set will explore the pre-spark days of the 5 Lorwyn Planeswalkers, Ajani, Jace, Liliana, Chandra and Garruk. We've gotten updated information; a few readers have found information that Nissa and Gideon will be a part of the set.
If you have the time or an easy job, watch the youtube video. Mark Purvis and Ian Duke help Rich Hagon announce the set. The video gives us a few clues and tells us we'll learn more at Pax East and other future events. The art looks pretty good, the planeswalkers are iconic and you're not allowed to not buy core set if you want to play Magic. This should be a fitting end to the core set tradition.
So, now that we have the facts, it's time for baseless speculation. What is Magic Origins going to be like? Who will have the best origin story? Will there be legendary creatures that represent pre-spark planeswalkers? Sound off below.
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This is actually quickly becoming one of my favorite series on the mothership. I'm not super big into the MTG lore, but I do enjoy a good read, and these always provide that while also giving some cool background information about the set we're playing with.
This week's edition tells part of the tale of Tarkir after Sarkhan's momentous actions there, and Nik Davidson fills us in on the rest.
Several years have passed since Sarkhan Vol altered the fate of Tarkirby saving Ugin from the villainous Nicol Bolas and encasing the ailing Spirit Dragon in a cocoon of stone. Since then, the dragon tempests that spawn young dragons on Tarkir have not only continued—they have intensified—as though enraged at Ugin's injury.
Few on Tarkir know the reason for the storms' fury, but all can see the effects. What was once a delicate balance between clans and dragons is becoming an all-out rout. Every month brings new dragons and new losses.
In the Shifting Wastes, the Abzan Houses face off against foes at least as adept at desert survival as they are: the great dragon Dromoka and her brood. With nowhere to hide, the Abzan have lost more to the dragons' renewed assault than any other clan.
Daghatar, khan of the Abzan, must choose his course wisely if his people are to endure.
You can read the full article here.
