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#PTKTK Deck List: Stanislav Cifka’s UB Control

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UB Control

Spells

4 Despise
2 Thoughtseize
4 Dissolve
4 Disdainful Stroke
4 Hero's Downfall
3 Bile Blight
2 Drown in Sorrow
2 Silence the Believers
4 Dig Through Time

Creatures

4 Prognostic Sphinx

Land

4 Polluted Delta
2 Bloodstained Mire
2 Flooded Strand
4 Temple of Deceit
4 Dismal Backwater
4 Temple of Mystery
4 Temple of Malady
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawg
1 Island
1 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Clever Impersonator
2 Returned Phalanx
2 Drown in Sorrow
1 Bile Blight
1 Pharika's Cure
1 Silence the Believers
2 Negate
1 Thoughtseize
1 Set Adrift
1 Pearl Lake Ancient

#PTKTK Deck List: Matignon’s Jeskai Ascendancy

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Jeskai Ascendancy Combo

creatures

4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Rattleclaw Mystic
2 Satyr Wayfinder
2 Voyaging Satyr

Spells

4 Jeskai Ascendancy
4 Retraction Helix
4 Astral Cornucopia
1 Altar of the Brood
4 Dig through Time
4 Commune with the Gods
2 Treasure Cruise
3 Taigam's Scheming
1 Swan Song

Lands

4 Mana Confluence
4 Frontier Bivouac
4 Yavimaya Coast
4 Shivan Reef
4 Windswept Heath
1 Flooded Strand
1 Forest
1 Plains
1 Island

#PTKTK Deck List: Peter Steinaa’s Jeskai Tokens

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Peter Steinaa's PTKTK Jeskai Tokens

Creatures

4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Raise the Alarm
4 Hordeling Outburst
4 Triplicate Spirits
3 Nyx-Fleece Ram

Spells

4 Jeskai Ascendancy
2 Dictate of Heliod
1 Spear of Heliod
4 Jeskai Charm
4 Stoke the Flames
3 Lightning Strike

Lands

4 Temple of Triumph
2 Temple of Epiphany
3 Mystic Monastery
4 Battlefield Forge
4 Shivan Reef
2 Flooded Strang
1 Mana Confluence
2 Plains
1 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Anger of the Gods
1 Nyx-Fleece Ram
2 Devouring Light
2 Negate
2 Erase
3 Disdainful Stroke
2 Purphoros, God of the Forge

#PTKTK Live Q&A VideoCast Posted to YouTube

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Doug, Jason and Kelly recorded this during the first round of Standard at Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir. This is 2 hours of good, good stuff. Normally this level of commentary is reserved for Insiders but we think this is good enough to give away for free. Enjoy!

#PTKTK Deck Tech: Todd Anderson’s Robots

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Todd Anderson's #PTKTK Standard Deck

Creatures

4 Ornithopter
4 Phyrexian revoker
4 Hero of Iroas
4 Heliod's Pilgrim

Spells

4 Springleaf Drum
4 Ghostfire Blade
4 Ensoul Artifact
1 Ajani Steadfast
4 Gods Willing
4 Stratus Walk
1 Singing Bell Strike
1 Spectra Ward

Land

4 Island
3 Plains
4 Darksteel Citadel
4 Temple of Enlightenment
4 Flooded Strang
2 Mana Confluence

Sideboard

2 Erase
1 Mortal Obstinency
1 Ordeal of Heliod
4 Master of Waves
4 Stubborn Denial
3 Suspension Field

#PTKTK Coverage Has Begun!

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And so it begins.   This is the weekend that will define an entire format.  Prices will change, new information will come to light, and fortunes will be made and lost.  Our main goal at QS is to enable people to get the best, most up-to-date information possible, so we'll be continuing to tap our sources both onsite in Honolulu and elsewhere.  Here are a few resources that we've put together to help you get the most out of this weekend.  Some are free to everyone, but the best stuff is reserved for our subscribers.

[Insider-Only] Real-Time Chat Discussion of the Pro Tour.

This is a great place to gather information that might not have hit Twitter or reddit yet, and to bounce ideas off of experienced traders.

[Free] Live Podcast: Q&A with Kelly Reid, Douglas Linn and Jason Alt

Listen in as QS founders Kelly and Doug are joined by MTG Finance internet superstar Jason Alt.  We'll be taking questions Q&A style and answering them on-air.  This will begin at 6pm EST.

[Free] PT Watch List: KTK 

Each Pro Tour, we try to put together a running list of cards we want to keep an eye on.  The list is public and free to everyone, but Insiders can see more details about who's paying how much for which card.  It's important to note that this is not a list of "good pick-ups", just cards we want to follow.  If you want to learn more, consider joining the discussion on the Insider chat.

[Insider-Only] Event Coverage Discussion Forum

While the live chat is great for getting quick advice and sharing news, the forums are the best place to ask more in-depth questions and really dig in and share your thoughts.

 

Blast from the Past – a look at mid ’90s fashion

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If you're like me, you're friends with Magic artists on Facebook. And why not? Eric Klug is always posting sweet alters, Christopher Rush is always posing with cute female fans and posting the pictures and the Foglios are certifiably batshit insane (in a good, Steampunky way) so their contributions are always welcome in my feed. If you take out the cool Magic art, facebook is just weird chain letters from your racist uncle and pictures of other people's cretinous children. Who needs that?

But I was treated to a very cool picture posted by Tom Wanerstrand.

Taken at GenCon in 1994, this is a big chunk of the first batch of Magic artists all in one place. It's been 20 years and fashion senses have improved a bit, some people who had lots of hair in this picture now have none (cough cough Mark Poole cough cough) and Magic's art staff has grown exponentially with a rotating cast of art directors (and therefore a rotating cast of artists) and lots of products to contribute art to.

OK, hotshot, how many can you name? Think back to the names you remember seeing on cards in 1994.

Give yourself 1 point for every artist you can name by their weird, 1994 faces or shirts.

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If you're stumped, scroll down for a list of all of the names. Take 3 points off of your score if you have to resort to checking the list, but it's still pretty challenging to match the names to the faces, so don't commit seppuku in shame or anything. It's just a made-up game thing. Scroll all the way down for the answer key to see how you did and what your score means.

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Amy Weber, Anson Maddocks, Christopher Rush, Dan Frazier, Daniel Gelon, Doug Shuler, Jeff Menges, Kaja Foglio, Mark Poole, Mark Tedin, Michael Kimble, Nene Thomas, Pete Venters, Phil Foglio, Rob Alexander, Sandra Evingham, Susan Van Kamp,  Tom Wanerstrand

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Answers - From left to right.

Back row - Mark Poole, Doug Shuler, Mark Tedin, Daniel Gelon, Pete Venters, Anson Maddocks.

Middle Row - Jeff Menges, Susan Van Camp, Rob Alexander, Christopher Rush, Sandra Evingham

Front Row - Amy Weber, Nene Thomas, Kaja Foglio, Phil Foglio, Tom Wanerstrand, Dan Frazier, Michael Kimble

 

How did you do?

1-3 points  - You're a nerd

4-8 points - You're a nerd

9-13 points - You're a nerd

14-18 points - You're a nerd

 

Thanks for playing!

Avatar photo

Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

View More By Jason Alt

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Insider: Standard Financial Movements Before Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir

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Khans of Tarkir is filled with high-powered cards that are warping older formats and setting the stage for an exciting post-rotation Standard format.

Today begins the event that will define the metagame going forward: today begins Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir in Honolulu, Hawaii.

In this post-rotation world that has been so violently shaken by Khans of Tarkir, where players are lost, drowning in the maelstrom and forced to fend for themselves, the Pro Tour serves as a life-raft and will guide the direction of the Standard metagame in its wake.

Last week I shared my thoughts on what’s going on in the Standard and Modern tournament metagames, with a focus on the financial world. Today I’ll discuss the major financial movements of the past week and discuss the metagame and financial implications that accompany the Pro Tour.

Hornet Queen

Last week I wrote:

Hornet Queen traded at $1 in August before slowly creeping up over the past three weeks to over $1.5. From there the price curve moves up sharply, beginning with nearly a $0.25 gain from Tuesday to Wednesday. As of Thursday morning the price is at $2 on tcgplayer.

Given Hornet Queen’s positive Standard prospects and the recent price trends of Magic 2015 cards, I believe the card is still underpriced and poised to double, and with a breakout PT performance it may rise further still. I studied the price trends of Magic 2014 Tidebinder Mage, which spiked from $1 to $5 after Pro Tour Theros, and Lifebane Zombie, which went from around $5 up toward $9–Hornet Queen should have similar potential.

The price of Hornet Queen gradually rose through the weekend to $3, and on Monday a wave of buying drove it to $4. It hit $5 by Tuesday, and it’s sat somewhere around $5.5 since Wednesday. Various people, in articles, on social media, on Reddit, and even on the QS forums, have said it has room to grow further, potentially following the path of Goblin Rabblemaster to a price approaching $20. If the card completely dominates the Pro Tour Top 8, maybe this extreme scenario could be a reality, but given even moderate Pro Tour success, a $10 pricetag is a very realistic possibility in a set with a $4.5 uncommon in Stoke the Flames.

I have seen many, many people discount Hornet Queen with explanations like “it’s a one-of” or “never a playset, 2-3 max.” In reality, Hornet Queen is seeing an increasing amount of play.

TCGplayer Standard States last weekend provided a ton of decklists and there are multiple decks with 3 Hornet Queens maindeck and one sideboard.

Then there's this Green Devotion deck with a mindeck playset of Hornet Queen, which outright won States in Washington: http://magic.tcgplayer.com/db/deck.asp?deck_id=1216907

Real Estate Update

Standard real estate continues to do well across the board.

I wrote last week:

Steadily rising is the stock of the painland cycle, particularly Battlefield Forge. The Apocalypse versions of all seemed to rise first, but other printings from 8th, 9th, and M15 are following suit. M15 Battlefield Forge hit $7 on Wednesday. Much of the ship has sailed on these lands, but I believe there is still upside.

All printings of Battlefield Forge continue to move up, with the M15 price catching up to its older counterparts with a healthy 25% growth in the past week. The Tenth Edition printing grew to the most expensive of all, sitting around $9, with the Apocalypse coming in a few cents cheaper, and M15 and Ninth Edition sitting at $8.5.

M15 Shivan Reef grew by over by over 20% to sit just under $7, nearly caught up to older printings that command a premium of $0.52 for Apocalypse and $0.51 for Ninth Edition. Tenth Edition holds the highest price with a $0.60 premium over the M15 printing.

A Look at Magic Online

On Magic Online, some cards grew from very low prices to over a dollar or more.

Aetherspouts grew from mere pennies to over 1.25 tickets. Daring Thief and Chief Engineer grew to a similar price point. Hypnotic Siren was another large gainer. Hero of Iroas saw a large increase as well. Doomwake Giant doubled to nearly 2.5 tickets.

Standard uncommons did well too. Drown in Sorrow quadrupled in price to 0.86 tickets, and Nyx-Fleece Ram doubled in price to over 2 tickets. It's very possible we'll see some of this movement show itself in paper prices.

Real estate also did well on Magic Online. Mana Confluence saw significant growth of 33% to 17 tickets.

The cycle of temples, particularly Temple of Epiphany and Temple of Enlightenment from the Jeskai Tempo deck, have done very well online in the past week. Temple of Enlightenment grew by 58% to 4.7 tickets. Temple of Epiphany grew by an incredible 125% to sit at nearly 12 tickets.

On the success of Abzan strategies, Temple of Malady grew by 51% to nearly 14 tickets.

This massive online growth in scry lands is certainly something to pay attention to. This may forecast an incoming spike in paper prices across the scry lands, especially if they perform at the Pro Tour.

Remember, the spike will be magnified in sets with less supply, which is why Journey to Nyx demands a premium over Born of the Gods, which demands a premium over Theros.

An Update on Glittering Wish

Glittering Wish saw gains this past week after a wave of buying, rising from $15 on average to a price approaching $20.

The card has been going through cycles over the past two weeks, with periods of buyouts followed by sell-outs, only to be bought out again. The TCGplayer low on this has caught up to the mid, and there currently aren’t any copies available for under $19 shipped. There may be another wave of selling at a this price point, but even without a major buyout, the price may continue moving northwards as the deck gains popularity.

I have heard a lot of speculative talk about the Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck and the potential for Modern bannings, and with it comes the risk that Glittering Wish crashes. Some have gone so far as to suggest that Glittering Wish would be banned, but in my eyes, that is an unrealistic possibility.

And if there was a banning, it would be the engine card itself, Jeskai Ascendancy. This card has no replacements, but the mana producers and cog draw spells have multiple. This is a case where the only choice would be to ban Jeskai Ascendancy.

If a banning becomes imminent, then Glittering Wish will start to fall in price accordingly, but I don't believe it will ever fall anywhere near its previous lows. It's clear that even before Jeskai Ascendancy was printed, Glittering Wish was underpriced, and it had been for a long time. People will start finding other homes for Glittering Wish, and as more gold cards are printed, it will only get better. I think the first post-buyout price point of $8 is the absolute low for Glittering Wish wish as long as it remains Modern legal.

An astute contributor to the QS forums pointed out Idyllic Tutor as a potential card for finding Jeskai Ascendancy in the case that Glittering Wish was banned, and while I don’t think that’s a likely scenario, I think it’s worth pointing out for the tutor’s value and potential in general for this archetype and others. For example, I could envision the combo deck playing a single copy of Idyllic Tutor to provide additional redundancy.

The Wake of the Pro Tour

I expect the post-Pro Tour Standard metagame to be stable until the next set, Fate Reforged, is released in the winter.

The Pro Tour will set the metagame going forward, and this puts tremendous pressure on the Pro Tour in a financial sense. There is a lot of anticipation of future performance built into the market and card prices, and a lot of card prices are inflated because of potential, and many cards will fall when they do not perform at the Pro Tour.

This is especially evident in Khans of Tarkir, where cards come with significantly more uncertainty. The theoretical price of cards is inflated over the purchase price of boxes, so in time they have to fall in price.

As such, if looking to speculate the Pro Tour, I would be looking to acquire cards from Theros block and Magic 2015.

Cards that do well at the Pro Tour are poised to rise, and if there is a huge breakout--like with Monoblue Devotion and to a lesser extent Monoblack Devotion at last year’s PT--expect a significant gain and a new price point going forward for the staple cards.

-Adam

Want to Play Hymn and Sinkhole in Pauper? Now’s Your Chance!

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The last build of MTGO came with an unintended feature:

IMG_2986

Most notably, this impacts the cards Hymn to Tourach and Sinkhole, two mono-black powerhouses from the very earliest days of the game. It's possible these cards may be pretty powerful in the format. Talk about turning a metagame on its head.

To her credit, Wizards of the Coast Community Coordinator Alison Luhrs was right on this issue. She responded to Ullman right away and reported the problem to the appropriate team.

IMG_2987

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A quick response and fix is a total win for WOTC, right? Three cheers for things working the way they're supp—

IMG_2989

Hmm, so that's a thing.

Sinkhole hymntotourach

If you wanted to take the next couple weeks jamming overpowered nonsense in a format not remotely prepared for it, this may be your opportunity. Of course, I also would not be surprised to see any Daily Events between now and October 22 cancelled, given that players could be justifiably angry to face down cards that are not technically legal in the format. As always, it's the MTGO team's move.

Update on Sealed Contest

We've received a bunch of entries for the Sealed deck contest posted last Friday, and today is the deadline listed. However, upon reflection, I'm unlikely to look at the entries until next week, so I'm extending the deadline through the weekend. If you still want to enter, please submit your decklist to me by Sunday, October 12, 2014, at midnight EST. The winner will be announced shortly thereafter!

Insider: The Pro Tour Is Coming

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The fall-set Pro Tour is one of the most financially important events of the year, and this one will be no exception. This summer, I focused mainly on Theros block cards, and many of them have started to hit since Khans of Tarkir was released.

At the end of July, I felt like the best two cards to target moving forward were Xenagos, the Reveler and Temple of Abandon. Unfortunately, I was unable to go as deep as I wanted due to the birth of my son, but I hope you managed to make some money.

xenagoscharttempleofabandonchart

Thankfully, I was in a better position to buy a month later when I put the crosshairs on Hornet Queen. The past week has made that look like a good decision, too, so I hope you bought in at a dollar back then.

hornetqueenchart

I've also been touting Anger of the Gods for months, mentioning it multiple times. I'm glad to see it's gained some value, and I would not be surprised to see it gain even more if it sees lots of play at the Pro Tour. Without a four-mana sweeper in the format, this may be the best we have.

angerofthegodschart

Some of my other targets in the past few months were casual cards like Agent of the Fates and Phenax, God of Deception. Those haven't hit just yet, but I'm confident, at least in the case of Phenax. I bought a few playsets of Agent in response to a tiny spread and apparent confidence from Card Kingdom, but that hasn't turned out quite as well, at least yet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Agent of the Fates

Despite at least some of my specs hitting, I haven't actually sold anything yet. With the Pro Tour happening this weekend, it's unlikely that too many, if any, cards will crash in value, but it's virtually guaranteed that many will spike. We see the same pattern in Standard year after year, and if that pattern holds, the time to sell Theros block cards will be in a week or two. I'm looking forward to putting together those buylists.

Haven't Hit Yet

Even though many cards from Theros block have spiked in the last few weeks, many have not. Trying to battle the many other speculators on TCGplayer during the final rounds of the Pro Tour will result in many cancelled orders, but if you make your orders in the days before or even the first day of the Pro Tour, there's a much better chance they'll be shipped. This article will be published the morning of day one of the Pro Tour, so if you're reading this then, note that you only have about half a day before receiving placed orders will become very difficult.

I mentioned Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx a few weeks ago, and I still think it's a very good target. Green devotion decks put up some pretty good results in the first week of this format, and Nykthos remains at an all-time low price. For a Modern-playable card, this seems wrong.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Whip of Erebos decks have done decently in the first few weeks, but the namesake card has not seen any price increase yet. This doesn't have much (any) Eternal playability and is a rare from a large fall set, but around a dollar seems low for a card that could define an entire archetype. Expect a large increase if a Whip deck makes Top 8 this weekend.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Whip of Erebos

Steam Augury has seen some play in Jeskai decks since rotation, and despite being nowhere close to Fact or Fiction, it may be a reasonable card, especially given that it provides either cards in hand or delve fuel. This is available at just about bulk prices, so the risk is very low.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Steam Augury

Eidolon of Blossoms has some real potential to double up or more if a deck needs it. This was a huge player at Pro Tour Journey into Nyx and its success there may translate to Standard, especially with the Elvish Mystic, Sylvan Caryatid, Courser of Kruphix metagame being so dominant.

The buy-in is a little higher than I'd like for a card like this, but there are real possibilities here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eidolon of Blossoms

Doomwake Giant was a prerelease promo, severely limiting its upside, but it's currently at bulk rare pricing and has seen some play in successful post-rotation decks. As an answer to both Goblin Rabblemaster and Elspeth, Sun's Champion tokens at the very least, this is a versatile and powerful card. The fact that it can be fetched at instant speed with Chord of Calling just makes it even better. I don't foresee huge things, but the risk is low.

Non-Standard Options

Just a couple more things for today:

Some of the gods from Theros block are getting to bulk mythic prices, especially Karametra and Ephara. While I wouldn't dump a ton of money into these cards, casual demand should make them worth more than their current prices within a year or two. Picking these up in trades over the following year seems like a low-risk, high-reward plan.

Finally, Spirit of the Labyrinth is down to about a dollar. I don't expect this card to make any impact on Standard, but it has already seen some play in Legacy Death and Taxes decks. This is another card that should increase over time, and getting copies as throw-ins at this point shouldn't be too difficult. Keep an eye out for them.

Don't forget: if you want to receive cards you order this weekend, order them early. If you buy on Friday, there's a good chance a package gets put in the mail the same day. If you wait for the weekend, you give shop owners the opportunity to wait until Monday to send your items out—and if you made a good buy, you can probably assume they will do just the opposite. Know what to expect!

KTK Limited Focus: Two-Drops

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With Khans of Tarkir Limited well underway, it is pretty clear that one of the most defining aspects of this format is morph. More often than not, your opponent's turn-three play will be a face-down 2/2 creature.

It's hard to tell how fast the format is at this point. I've seen five-color matchups that develop slowly and take forever to complete, but I've also seen races that end relatively early in the game. What is clear to me right now is that two-drops are important. They apply early pressure that slow decks will struggle to handle, and they also trade with face-down morphs on the draw. Let's go over the two-drops in the format and discuss their value.

Top-Tier Two-Drops

Top-Tier Two-Drops

Ainok Bond-Kin

Heir of the Wilds

Rakshasa Deathdealer

Rattleclaw Mystic

Seeker of the Way

Temur Charger

Chief of the Edge

Chief of the Scale

These are the best two-drops in the format. Each has utility beyond just combat, and you will often not want to trade these for unknown morphs even if given the opportunity. These are top-tier picks and should be prioritized highly if they fit in your color scheme.

Two-Power Traders

Two-Power Traders

Highland Game

Horde Ambusher

Leaping Master

Mardu Skullhunter

Smoke Teller

War-Name Aspirant

Wetland Sambar

These aren't the highest of picks, but they do get the beatdowns started early and you won't be at all sad to trade these off for unknown morphs. Having a few of these in your decks will make opponents' decision much more difficult—is it worth trading a good morph for one of these vanilla twos?

Defenders

Defenders

Archers' Parapet

Dragon's Eye Savants

I'm not a huge fan of Dragon's Eye Savants, but Archers' Parapet seems like a grindy win condition for slow Sultai decks or for Azban decks in a board stall. However, the zero-power stat for these walls makes them not at all scary to attack into, which means someone going wide with morphs (or non-morphs, for that matter) can overcome you pretty easily.

Questionables

Questionables

Jeskai Elder

Jeskai Student

Valley Dasher

Gurmag Swiftwing

I'm not crazy about Jeskai Elder or Jeskai Student, considering each needs help in order to kill a face-down morph. Both are probably decent in a Jeskai deck looking to maximize prowess, but I don't consider them to be auto-includes. Valley Dasher is probably where you want to be if you're committed to the beatdown plan, but you're only ever going to get one opportunity to block (if that), so it is easily played around by skilled opponents. As for Gurmag Swiftwing, I hope to never play this card and expect I will be happy when my opponent's play it against me. Despite all those abilities, one power is just not cutting it.

Two-Drop Morphs

Two-Drop Morphs

Master of Pearls

Icefeather Aven

Jeering Instigator

Finally, these three two-drops all have morph, and given their abilities, I can't imagine you'll be playing these on turn-two very often—unless you really need to block. The added flexibility is nice, even if you won't use it most of the time.

Get Started Early

My initial impression of the format is that with all the 2/2s for three mana running around, two-drops are super important, even in matchups that aren't particularly aggressive. Two-drops can also help you run over opponents who want to be doing things like playing banners. I like to have at least three or four two-power two-drops in my decks, and the results so far have been promising. Let me know what you think about two-drops, morph, and the speed of the format below.

Insider: And the Hammer Falls

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Hey everyone,

Sorry I don’t have my usual article up this week. As you’re reading this I’m in Hawaii prepping for my first time on the Pro Tour coverage team. I don’t want to leave you completely empty-handed, though, so I thought it would be a good time to re-run this article. I stand by everything I said in it the first time around, and with everyone so focused on new Standard right now I think it’s a great time to remember some of the points I presented in this article.

- Corbin


 

I’ll skip right to the relevant paragraph:

“So I’ll make a bold claim that’s been gnawing at the back of my mind for a couple of months now, even though I’ve pushed it off because it goes against all precedent: Modern prices are not going up anytime soon.”

I wrote that several months ago, around the time everyone was prepping for the oncoming Modern season and the wondrous prices it would bring. I felt the pressure at the time of writing that, because I was definitely fighting against the “conventional wisdom.” In retrospect, I’m really glad I acted on my gut there, because as we all know Modern prices stagnated horribly this summer, and in many cases dropped outright.

There’s another relevant paragraph from that article:

“When the next catalyst comes, aggressively buy staples across the board.”

That time is now.

Wooded-Foothills-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoilers-190x263

Allied fetchlands are here, and the proverbial hammer has fallen on Modern. It’s time. And it couldn’t be a better one.

The Coming Spike

Everyone is excited about Khans of Tarkir and the wedges it brings. I am too. But I’m much more excited about the future of Modern, and Khans is the reason why.

We’re going to see another round of growth in Modern. It’s not going to come in the next week. It’s not going to come in the next month. But it is coming, likely at the end of the year or right after the turn of the new one when we often see prices kick off another round of growth.

The last time there was a mass migration into Modern was when Modern Masters was reprinted. The reason for that was because people suddenly had a way to access the format. Easy packs mean that a whole slew of people who hadn’t been able to touch the format before could after busting a few high-dollar rares. We saw the effects of this immediately, with Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant actually increasing in price from where they were before.

But it wasn’t just the flagship mythics. It was a slew of other cards in Modern, from fetchlands to Splinter Twin to even stuff like Serum Visions. So many new people entered the format that everything that wasn’t reprinted saw steady gains.

That’s the world we’ll be living in again soon.

Everyone else will be excited about Khans, trading for the new Standard, picking up their specs and their new decks, and that’s great. In fact, we should also be interested in the Standard specs we have faith in. But I think it’s going to be vital to spend the next month to two months trading the Standard cards for the things you can get for Modern. I think it’s handy that fetches are coming out now right at rotation, because it means people will have better things to do than worry about what may happen six months from now.

But price increases are coming in the next 12 months for a lot of Modern cards.

But probably not all of them. The reason? I think it’s clear now more than ever that Modern Masters 2 can’t be far off. It may be the summer of 2016, but the summer of 2015 seems ever more likely, just like I’ve been saying since last summer when Modern Masters was such a success.

Preparing for Reprints

So if we accept the fact that mass reprints are coming, the next question is how to best hedge against that risk. I think there are a few valid approaches.

1) Try to guess the likely MM2 candidates. There’s certainly merit to this, since there are some big cards we can expect to be reprinted. For instance, I don’t think Liliana of the Veil or Snapcaster Mage are the safest places to park money heading into next summer. You can spec into the rest of the big cards in the format and hope for the best, which will likely yield profit as a whole.

2) Go after the stuff that is probably safe from a Modern Masters 2 set. For the most part this means older cards, even cards that were in the original MMA set. I don’t think that you’re going to see as large of gains on the cards from the original set, of course, but I think they’re safer as a whole than something that could be reprinted in a Modern Masters 2 set.

3) Aim for really recent cards that you think have Modern potential. Considering they set a limit on the first Modern Masters set in terms of time period printed, something along the same lines for the next one means that cards from the last couple years might miss the cut.

The other big question is the Zendikar fetchlands. A lot of people have speculated they’ll show up in Khans of Tarkir block. I personally disagree with that, considering that with the enemy painlands in M15 and allied fetchlands now we have balanced mana in Standard. Putting fetches into the block would ruin that balance.

Furthermore, with allied fetches taking some of the pressure off the Zendikar copies, it means a huge reprinting may not be needed, and a smaller reprinting in a supplementary product could do the trick.

I don’t have a comprehensive list of cards to buy right now, mainly because this is all so new I myself haven’t come up with what an optimal list would look like. But I’ve laid out my thoughts on the general places to look above, and I’ll be coming up with a list for next week.

The beautiful thing about this situation, and it’s something really rare these days, is that I don’t think there’s a rush here. By all accounts, we should have a few weeks if not a few months to be ahead of the wave, and that’s an awesome opportunity.

 

Thanks for reading (and enjoy the spoilers!),

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider, Modern, PredictionsTagged , , , , , 2 Comments on Insider: And the Hammer Falls

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Insider: Top 10 Most Underestimated Cards in Standard

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After talking about the metagame with some friends and playing games against initial version of decks, I believe some cards stick out as currently unloved or underutilized. Some of the cards on this list you may have had similar thoughts about, while with others I’ll hopefully shine some light on the situation. Let’s get right to it.

10. Stubborn Denial

[cardimage cardname='Stubborn Denial']

The burn spells are so potent right now it’s scary. Multiple decks end the game with Stoke the Flames, Lightning Strike or Jeskai Charm and we need to start adapting. Sultai Midrange seems well positioned because not only does it have the black removal spells and the powerful green cards, but also solid reactive spells like this and Negate to cancel the opponent's burn end game.

I don’t think we are to a point where we are ready to see these cards maindeck, but we are closing in on that reality. As of right now, they are potent sideboard cards that are essential to your success as long as you have blue mana available.

9. Brain Maggot

[cardimage cardname='Brain Maggot']

I’ve been playing with Brain Maggot a lot lately and it has really impressed me. I like it most in the Mardu Horde deck I’ve mentioned over the last couple weeks because you can take your opponent’s early plays and then sacrifice it to Butcher of the Horde later on.

For example: I was playing against Sultai Dredge a bit last night and my Maggots would commonly remove their Commune with the Gods or Satyr Wayfinder. Neither of those is particularly threatening in the late game but stunting their board development is a great way to win games.

These types of things come up often with Brain Maggot and it works especially well when you have Despise or Thoughtseize alongside it. More players should be utilizing this tempo creature in their decks.

8. Silence the Believers

[cardimage cardname='Silence the Believers']

You’re going to hear this a couple of times today--players have forgotten about overperformers in Block. Silence the Believers is the perfect example of a card that was extremely good in Block that has not transitioned into Standard. We got Murderous Cut from Khans and that spell is impressively good, but that shouldn’t remove the existence of one of the most impactful cards from Block.

Every midrange black deck that I play is including some number of this card in it. It’s the perfect spell. It may not be super cheap, but in the midrange mirrors using it to remove two or three of their creatures is commonplace. The metagame is evolving with more bestow creatures as well, which makes Silence the Believers even better. The fact that it exiles the creature is really relevant too. Some decks are able to activate their gods, but this spell deals with that problem handily.

Finally, this is one of the few spells that kills Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker. We may have Utter End, but Silence the Believers gets better the further the game progresses. Don’t forget about it when you are brewing.

7. Pharika, God of Affliction

[cardimage cardname='Pharika, God of Affliction']

Hornet Queen is seeing more and more play in Standard and its price should tell you that more than anything. The reason the flying queen bee is so good is because creating an army of guys with deathtouch is hard to fight through for most decks. Outside of Bile Blight, there are not many answers for the killer bees and even if they have that spell, the queen herself sticks around to help you out.

Pharika, God of Affliction functions similarly to Hornet Queen in that they both generate an army of deathtouchers. These tokens do not have to be used only for defense though. Your opponent will not desire to block any of these enchantment snakes and trade their resources for your virtual card advantage. Pharika can be utilized best in a delve style deck, but I think she should even start seeing play in midrange green decks as well because she is very good in midrange battles.

6. Prognostic Sphinx

[cardimage cardname='Prognostic Sphinx']

Here we are again reflecting on the Block Pro Tour. When you add in M15 and Khans of Tarkir, there are still not many ways to deal with the hexproof sphinx. We do have End Hostilities now as well as a few other answers, but Prognostic Sphinx is still extremely difficult to beat. The format has not changed nearly enough to push Sphinx out. If anything, it has shaped up perfectly for Sphinx to take control. How long can this guy live in the shadows of bulk boxes?

5. Herald of Torment

[cardimage cardname='Herald of Torment']

Aggressively costed, check. Evasion, check. Good at different points of the game, check. Herald of Torment fits the metagame like a glove. For the same reason that Mantis Rider overwhelmed the metagame, so should Herald of Torment. I’ve been testing Herald in multiple decks to great effect but I think it could fit in more decks once the metagame settles down. Every deck needs ways to break through ground stalls. There’s no better way to do this than giving your giant green monster +3/+3 and flying.

4. Tymaret, the Murder King

[cardimage cardname='Tymaret, the Murder King']

Alright, I admit I have a problem. Tymaret, the Murder King and I are best buds. I know that being friends with a legendary murderer isn’t that great of an idea, but if you get to know him, he’s really a great guy. Being my buddy, of course I have a better opinion about him than most, but give him a shot. He deserves it.

Seriously though, I’ve been adding Tymaret to more and more decks lately and he has not disappointed me in any list. The combination of a Siege-Gang Commander type sac engine, along with Bloodsoaked Champion or Goblin Rabblemaster tokens to repeatedly sacrifice, is an incredibly potent weapon in Standard. Add in some redundancy and power with Butcher of the Horde and that’s exactly where I want to be in Standard. Now if I could only find room for Purphoros, God of the Forge.

Play Tymaret. He’s really good.

3. Rakshasa Deathdealer

[cardimage cardname='Rakshasa Deathdealer']

Two-cost creatures are at a premium in Standard right now. There are not very many good choices for most decks. There’s no dearth of three- and four-drops. In fact, in deck building, there are many decisions about which three- and four-drops are the right ones to play. Filling out the beginning of your curve is much harder though.

Rakshasa Deathdealer is just what the brewer needed to gain some clarity. The mental wall you need to break through with this innocent looking bear is that you can pump multiple times per turn. That makes Deathdealer not only a great turn two play but also a great turn eight play.

Think about that for a moment. How many two-drops can you evaluate that are great cards to draw no matter the stage of the game? It’s a short list and even shorter if we narrow it to Standard-only cards. The only Rakshasa will be taking the throne shortly and his cheap price tag may not be that for much longer. Most cards in Khans will drop in value, but Deathdealer is one that might bump up instead of down.

2. Garruk, Apex Predator

[cardimage cardname='Garruk, Apex Predator']

With the format consisting of a lot of midrange slug fests, I’ve been looking for ways to go over the top. Garruk, Apex Predator seems like one of the only tools that fits this goal. He may cost seven mana, but with Courser of Kruphix, you will regularly hit that much mana or more throughout the course of most games. Garruk is the stalemate breaker, the planeswalker killer, and the stands at the apex of all finishers.

By saying new Garruk should be seeing more play, I’m not talking about adding him as a one-of in any list that plays both green and black. My intent is that he should be a two- or three-of in one of the best decks in the format. I’m not sure which deck is best suited to utilize him as its finisher, but multiple decks should start with Garruk and then fill in the rest of the deck around him.

This planeswalker is no build-around-me card per se, but once you know that your goal every game is play him and then win the game from there, your card choices will differ from what you might have included before that epiphany. For instance, what deck could beat the end game combo of Elspeth, Sun's Champion or Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker followed up by Garruk, Apex Predator? Think about that when you’re building your next midrange deck.

1. Jeskai Ascendency

[cardimage cardname='Jeskai Ascendancy']

We have only scratched the surface of how good this enchantment truly is. There is an iceberg’s worth of depth to this card and we are only seeing what’s sticking out of the ocean right now. So many lines of play start with Jeskai Ascendancy and veer off from there.

Take Jeskai Tokens for example. As far as I know, that’s not an actual deck, but it probably should be. What about a White Weenie or Boros Aggro style deck using this enchantment to pump your creatures and increase your clock. There is also the possibility we could be playing the only Ascendancy in a heroic style deck. So many possibilities exist based on all the ways Jeskai Ascendancy can affect the game. Start those brewing engines and let’s get to work.

Jeskai Ascendancy isn’t just a combo card in Modern, or just a fringe combo card in Standard, it’s much more than that.

Theros Block Price Updates

In case you haven’t noticed yet, the mythics from Theros block have been on the rise. Impactful Standard cards are increasing in value every day. I’ve been adjusting prices like crazy the last couple of weeks.

[cardimage cardname='Brimaz, King of Oreskos'][cardimage cardname="Elspeth, Sun's Champion"]

These two white cards, Brimaz and Elspeth, have popped up quite a bit the last week or two. I don’t have a line of players lining up to sell me these cards at the new buy price either, so it seems likely the new prices will stick. Elspeth might not be $30 just yet, but soon she will be. This may be the peak for these two cards though, so if you are sitting on extra copies, now may be the time to safely unload them.

[cardimage cardname='Kiora, the Crashing Wave'][cardimage cardname='Xenagos, the Reveler']

With the emergence of Jeskai Tempo plus all the burn spells floating around in the format, I assumed Kiora and Xenagos would dip in value. The exact opposite has happened with Kiora, and Xenagos has held strong. The decks that play these two low loyalty planeswalkers have adapted somewhat to be able to protect their planeswalkers better, but they are still weak to many aspects of the format. Even though both of these impactful planeswalkers are strong plays, I doubt they can increase further in value.

[cardimage cardname='Polukranos, World Eater '][cardimage cardname='Stormbreath Dragon']

The dynamic monster duo Polukranos and Stormbreath have risen to dominant price status as well as filling a prominent role in the metagame. Polukranos is a central pillar of the metagame and although he was in the duel deck, I still believe he has room to grow. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit $20 in a couple weeks. Stormbreath, on the other hand, constantly surprises me that he has risen back to his previous price point.

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker is the most expensive card in Standard and fills the same spot in decks, yet Stormbreath has gone up quite a bit in spite of that fact. I have unloaded all my Stormbreaths and I would advise you to do the same. I don’t believe in Stormbreath and I don’t think his price is stable.

That's all I have for today. What cards have you found that are underestimated in Standard right now? Next week, more sweet Standard decks and Pro Tour Khans info!

Until Next Time,

Get ready to Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

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