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Three Years of Draft Formats, Ranked

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There have been some damn good draft formats in the last three years, but there have also been a few duds. Based on the time-tested and clearly flawless method of trusting my own personal anecdotes, opinions, and gut feelings, I have undergone the extensive process of determining exactly how good each of these formats was in relation to its peers. Because they're not normal expansions, neither Modern Masters nor Conspiracy was included for consideration.

innistradx3

The official rankings are below. There is no appeals process.

1. Innistrad - Innistrad - Innistrad
2. Gatecrash - Gatecrash - Gatecrash
3. Magic 2013 - Magic 2013 - Magic 2013
4. Theros - Theros - Theros
5. Dragon's Maze - Gatecrash - Return to Ravnica
6. Journey into Nyx - Born of the Gods - Theros
7. Avacyn Restored - Avacyn Restored - Avacyn Restored
8. Magic 2014 - Magic 2014 - Magic 2014
9. Magic 2015 - Magic 2015 - Magic 2015
10. Dark Ascension - Innistrad - Innistrad
11. Born of the Gods - Theros - Theros
12. Fresh air and sunshine
13. Return to Ravnica - Return to Ravnica - Return to Ravnica (DIAF, Pack Rat)

packrat

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Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

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Posted in Drafting, FreeTagged 9 Comments on Three Years of Draft Formats, Ranked

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The Seasonal Alter

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Call it the next wave in alters. I mean, it's not really that new, but it is something that's come into focus as alters have become more and more a part of the Magic scene.

Heck, I'll just show you it first.

This is how you get more than one alter done at a time.
This is how you get more than one alter done at a time.

It calls back to the days of Mishra's Factory coming in different seasons, and it's awesome. Also, the card in question here, Scapeshift, is all about lands. Land = seasons. Get it?

Okay, bad puns aside, this is a really cool concept for getting alters of a playset done. Modfly alters is to thank for this one, and you can find more about this particular alter here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, FreeTagged , 10 Comments on The Seasonal Alter

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Insider: The Legacy of Khans of Tarkir

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Welcome back, readers!

It's that time of the year again...rotation! Not only does WoTC give us a brand new set with lots of toys, but prices of many old Standard staples drop (often by a huge amount), and we get the opportunity to trade "hot new" overpriced Standard cards for rock bottom-priced eternal cards.

But that's another subject for another article. This week we'll delve (an appropriate pun) into Khans looking for the hidden Legacy gems. The key part of that statement is "hidden"--We all know the fetchlands are eternal staples, so I don't need to go into much detail there.

I will say that if you crack them the first week or two, it'd likely be worth trading them off. If we look at almost every other recent rare mana fixing land we see that the pre-order/initial price was always higher than the actual price a month later. This phenomenon goes all the way back to the Zendikar fetches which started out at $25/$15 (blue/non-blue) and found their way down to $15/$10.

As always let's first define our the characteristics we look for when determining how Legacy-playable the cards are.

  1. Power -- In order for any card to see Legacy play it either needs to match or surpass the power of an existing card, or provide a completely unique effect.
  2. Converted Mana Cost -- The lower the better. While this is important in all formats, it is especially so in one as efficient as Legacy.
  3. Pitchable to Force? -- While this obviously isn't a deal breaker, blue cards should be scrutinized more simply because blue is the most powerful color.
  4. Similarity to Staples -- Does it do something similar to a card that already sees play?

Now that we've got that out of the way let's look at some of the interesting cards from Khans.

Clever Impersonator

Clever Impersonator

  1. The power level on this card is very high. He does cost the same as a Jace, the Mind Sculptor, so in most cases why not just play JTMS instead? However, he can copy anything, making him extremely versatile.
  2. The CMC is again the exact same as JTMS. Four mana is quite a lot in Legacy so the card needs to do a lot to be worth it.
  3. He's blue so you can pitch him to FoW.
  4. This card is and isn't similar to other cards. We've had Phyrexian Metamorph available for a while and that one can copy creatures or artifacts for three mana (and two life), but the extra mana (and the fact that he's double blue) gives you a whole lot of versatility. The only sad thing is that like all clone effects he doesn't allow you to copy your opponent's permanent when brought into play via Show and Tell.

Dig Through Time

Dig-Through-Time-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. This is a scry 7, draw two spell at instant speed. That's insanely powerful. The normal cost is also insanely high (eight mana) but the fact that it has delve means that in certain decks it really just costs two. The fact that to pull this off you have to remove six cards in your yard from the game does mean that it's not likely going to be a four-of in many (or likely any decks).
  2. The CMC is either ridiculously unplayable or stupidly broken...completely depending on the number of cards you don't care about in your yard when you cast it.
  3. Pitchable to FoW.
  4. This card is somewhat similar to Lim-Dul's Vault as a way to get some solid library manipulation at instant speed (and for two mana...sometimes). The fact that it has a draw two thrown in is ridiculous. In fact, the only problem it really has going for it right now is just how many decks run cards to keep graveyards in check (Rest in Peace, Relic of Progenitus, Deathrite Shaman), thus potentially limiting your delve stockpile.

Stubborn Denial

Stubborn-Denial-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. When first reading this I immediately jumped on the "so it's a more restrictive/bad Force Spike" train and brushed it aside. However, any format that runs Tarmogoyf with blue cards might want to reconsider it. Now it does have to fight with Spell Pierce at the one blue counter target non-creature spell slot. However, unlike Spell Pierce (in the right deck), it gets better as the game goes on, whereas Spell Pierce gets worse.
  2. Similar to Spell Pierce in cost, though less impressive in abilities the first couple turns, but better than Spell Pierce once you have ferocious.
  3. Pitchable to FoW.
  4. Again, see Spell Pierce.

Treasure Cruise

Treasure-Cruise-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. Eight mana to draw three cards at sorcery speed; no thank you--oh wait, it has Delve... Well I guess if I can get a lot of cards in my graveyard that I don't care about, then casting Ancestral Recall at sorcery speed is still pretty ridiculous.
  2. Similar to Dig Through Time, its CMC is either unplayable or bonkers depending on what your graveyard looks like.
  3. Pitchable to FoW (noticing a pattern so far).
  4. Ancestral Freaking Recall.

Bloodsoaked Champion

Siege Rhino

  1. Any creature that can be recurred from the graveyard repeatedly should be reviewed carefully.
  2. One mana for a 2/1 with no evasion isn't spectacular, but it's still respectable.
  3. The first non-blue card on our list...you can try to pitch it to FoW, but it'd be illegal.
  4. Very Gravecrawler-ish. His ability does cost more and like Gravecrawler it can be used repeatedly in the same turn (which is always awesome). But, whereas Gravecrawler needs another zombie to be active, this guy just needs you to have attacked with something (anything).

Dead Drop

Dead-Drop-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. Making a player sacrifice two creatures isn't horrible. As many RUG players will tell you, when they think their opponent has Liliana they'll drop extra creatures just to keep their Mongeese alive.
  2. Ten mana for double Diabolic Edict...again, no thanks. But as you've probably noticed, delve makes this card a lot more interesting. It really is a shame this is sorcery speed as it would give black a hilarious solution to "Sneak Attack in Griselbrand, draw 14, sneak in Emrakul, enter attack step). The good news is, if you're playing black and it isn't storm based...you're likely gunning for the mid- to long game when delve really shines.
  3. Not blue, not pitchable.
  4. People already play Diabolic Edict and Innocent Blood (especially to get past those pesky True-Name Nemesis's). This spell can do a lot more work than those cards, assuming you can find enough cards to delve.

Empty the Pits

Anafenza

  1. I'll be honest and admit I almost wrote this one off too, and then I noticed it was an instant. Putting in an army of 2/2's at instant speed is pretty darn powerful. It's not as good as 4/4 flying Angels, but it's still not too shabby.
  2. The CMC is pretty rough on this one (even with delve). Quadruple black is a tough color combination to hit, even with the near perfect mana of Legacy. But this is still a very powerful effect and is amazing against late game decks. Imagine casting this against Miracles after they've used up a couple Terminus's. Counterbalance isn't gonna stop a spell whose CMC is likely 10-16.
  3. Nope.
  4. I think this will get tried out. The biggest concern I see is that non-storm black decks are usually graveyard synergistic (with Gravecrawlers, Nether Spirit, Ashen Ghoul, or whatnot) and/or run the Life from the Loam engine, so the hate people would normally bring in against these decks is also good against this card.

Grim Haruspex

Siege Rhino

  1. Drawing a card when a creature you control dies is a pretty powerful effect.
  2. Three mana for a 3/2 isn't all that spectacular. Usually for three mana I'm casting something and naming my opponent or showing something that costs a lot more or letting the Council decide what to exile (with me being head of said council).
  3. Nein.
  4. This could provide an engine with a low enough cost for something like Zombardment to give it a shot. If you have a sacrifice outlet, this guy, and a recursive creature you can get some solid card advantage.

Murderous Cut

Siege Rhino

  1. It's a kill spell with no restrictions.
  2. Five mana to kill any creature. Pretty lousy (you could run Hero's Downfall if you really needed to), but one mana is pretty awesome. As with all the other delve cards, this one's power level is strictly dependent on how much graveyard hate is being thrown around.
  3. Nope.
  4. This will likely be tried out in a Jund-like midrange deck, though I have the suspicious feeling that Lightning Bolt already kills most of the things you'd need this for. Although nailing a Griselbrand with it would probably feel pretty spectacular.

Necropolis Fiend

Necropolis-Fiend-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. Tombstalker saw some play. This guy gives you one less power and a cool but likely limited-time-use ability for one more card from your graveyard.
  2. Again, without delve, completely unplayable, with delve up in the air.
  3. Nada.
  4. Not as good as Tombstalker at closing out the game, but pretty solid way to control the board against creature based decks.

Howl of the Horde

Howl-of-the-Horde-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. Twincast, Reverberate and Fork haven't seen play in quite awhile, but the ability is always powerful.
  2. Three mana for this effect means you're paying one extra, but three mana for this effect twice means you're paying one less mana and one less card for it. It really is a shame that it only copies your spells, but I guess that attacking with a creature and casting this in response to your opponent going EoT Brainstorm would be a bit too unfair.
  3. Negative.
  4. I'd love to see it get played, and it has potential, but sadly the decks that usually want to attack with creatures don't usually cast a lot of post-combat spells (with the exception of Burn playing Goblin Guide and Eidolon of the Great Revel). Again you have to pay the mana for the spell you want to copy as well, so the total mana spent on your turn is likely going to be four plus.

Jeering Instigator

Jeering-Instigator-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. Threaten effects rarely if ever make their way into Legacy.
  2. The first part being said, this guy is a goblin which is one of the top tribes of Legacy (right behind Elves). While Goblins previously could get Stingscourger to bounce a creature, playing this guy face down on turn 3 is really gonna limit what your Show and Tell opponent is willing to drop down on their turn. I really want to see someone use this guy on a Show and Telled Emrakul on camera.
  3. Aucun.
  4. Similar to Stingscourger. Sometimes way better, sometimes worse.

Deflecting Palm

Deflecting-Palm-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

  1. Eye for an Eye never saw Legacy play--it also didn't prevent the damage to you.
  2. Two different colored mana for this effect is on par with existing spells that do half of this spells job.
  3. Geen.
  4. Nothing like it is really seeing play currently.

And there you have it. All the cards from Khans I think might show up in Legacy. Anything significant you think I missed? Sound off in the comments.

MODO be buggin’

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Recently, there have been a rash of screenshots posted online where people have been able to use their opponent's tapped creatures as blockers. While that's obviously a great way to win a game of Magic, it's not a great way to have your digital product function.

Anyone else encounter any weird bugs lately?

Redditer /u/Herkyavello may have found the cause of the confusion.

Clearly Masako is gumming up the works with her quirky set of abilities.

While this is a humorous exchange, it points to a larger problem within Magic online, and it's come to a head recently with many Magic pros expressing their abject frustration with the unsuitability of the platform. Even pros like Brian Kibler who are paid to produce MODO video content aren't doing so because MODO is untenable to use. What about you? Are you staying away? Soldiering on? Taking a break until it's less terrible? Leave it in the comments.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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How to Approach a New Standard

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It's the most exciting time of the year Magic-wise, and that's always worth talking about.

Trap-Essence-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler
Anything could be good, right?

"I can't think of a more exciting time to be in Magic. Set Rotation is like Christmas, and it's a destination trip since so many people end up in Magic Christmasland around this time.

But really, there's an understandable reason for it. With such a new format that stands completely unformed and wide open, it's also a trip to the wild west of Magic finance. I know the basics of how to handle Rotation have already been covered and are familiar to most of you. After all, how many ways are there to say "rotating cards drop, the others don't?"

That's why today I want to describe the next step in Rotation for anyone who isn't super familiar with it. And, given some of the changes this year, I think it's especially relevant to cover. So I'm going to outline the general timeline for things over the next few months."

You can find the full article here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, Free, Khans of Tarkir1 Comment on How to Approach a New Standard

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The Ongoing Debate About MTGO Compensation

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Compensation for MTGO events has been a huge topic of debate ever since Brian Kibler single-handedly discontinued premier-level events at the end of 2013. Wizards of the Coast has largely ignored customer concerns about the lack of respect shown for players' time, money, and frustration with a barely functioning program that crashes on what seems like a majority of players.

This issue was brought back into the spotlight recently when Limited Resource's Brian Wong dedicated a large part of episode 249 to discussing the shortcomings of the policy.

limitedresources

Yesterday on the Meadery, Meghan Wolff shared a recent experience that continued along this line of discussion. It's the same old story we've heard over and over again—doing well in a high-stakes event, disconnected without being notified, and a frantic attempt to reconnect that ultimately resulted in a match loss and event drop.

Wolff went over the tiers of responsibility that WOTC has for MTGO. First, it should be a functioning program that works as intended. Short of that (and we are significantly short of that), is to not run high-stakes events unless either the software or the compensation policy can adequately support them (we're well short of that, too). The third tier, says Wolff, is that at the very least, players should be compensated adequately when things go wrong. Sadly, WOTC falls short of this third tier, too.

Wolff concludes:

If I am deeply upset as a result of using your product, someone must be in the wrong. By failing to compensate me, you are denying responsibility – if you were doing something wrong, then you would do something to fix it. Since you are not, you must not be doing anything incorrect, and I'm left with the conclusion that I am the person in the wrong for using MTGO in the first place.

When you do not properly compensate your customers, you are sending the message that they are wrong for using your product. It's only a matter of time before I start listening and stop playing.

The Reddit discussion thread for this article has some fantastic points, and the discussion includes such community figureheads as Luis Scott-Vargas and Worth Wollpert.

worthwollpert

If you've spent any amount of time playing MTGO, you have likely been undercompensated after a program bug ruined a particular event you were playing. It's fair to say that WOTC needs to defend itself against people trying to game the system, but the company also needs to show respect for its customers. The balance is currently weighted far too heavily toward WOTC profits, but as more attention is shown toward this issue, maybe the community can force a change. What revisions would you like to see the MTGO compensation policy?

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Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

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Insider: [MTGO] Update on Modern Positions

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So far it's been a relatively calm summer for Modern specs. Relatively, because several Modern staples were pretty much flat while others were dramatically up.

With the release of VMA and the Vintage format being finally accessible to online players, every Modern card playable in Vintage, and also Legacy, got more than a nice boost and reached new records. It surely contributed to the Modern index breaking a new record high about two weeks ago.

If you were holding cards such as Thorn of Amethyst, Serum Powder, Golgari Grave-Troll, Infernal Tutor, Tezzeret the Seeker and Leyline of the Void you may have made some substantial profit. If you are still holding them you should seriously consider selling them now. These cards greatly benefited from the new interest for Vintage and have very limited or no interest in Modern; i.e. Golgari Grave-Troll is banned for instance and Infernal Tutor is pretty much unseen.

As for Modern staples only it seems that there are two different categories here--cards that have kept their up and down cycles independently of Modern PTQs being cancelled on MTGO, and cards that haven't really rebounded during the past 5-6 months.

Among the cards that have kept swinging with 50% or more variations: Serra Ascendant, Ranger of Eos, Fulminator Mage, Scapeshift and Inquisition of Kozilek.

Living End, Splinter Twin, Vengevine, Through the Breach, Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker or Raging Ravine for instance haven't really rebounded and have been flat for a while now. They would be a good buying opportunity if we weren't few weeks away from Khans of Tarkir release on MTGO.

A Seasonal Dip

With the incoming release of the fall set, Khans of Tarkir, Modern cards should see a marked decline pretty soon. As it was the case previously after Theros and Return to Ravnica releases Modern cards see an average decrease of about 20% in October and will likely rebound only in November-December.

We have seen that even with a summer relatively quiet for the Modern format the Modern index has hit a new record. The little dip we experienced two weeks ago is largely due to the reprint of the ONS fetchlands which directly impacted prices of the ZEN fetchlands. All together the ZEN fetchlands lost about 60 Tix in a week, equivalent to the dip we observed on the Modern index. Without this the Modern index would probably still be on an upward trend.

If you hold some Modern positions you may want to consider selling your cards between now and the end of September, especially knowing that they are about to lose 20% of their value in average. Some of your positions may be at a local high or close to their ceiling--this is definitely a good time for selling.

Even with minimum gains, selling your Modern positions now will free you some cash for incoming opportunities discussed in my previous articles.

  1. Khans of Tarkir prerelease events will be the opportunity to capitalize on booster price variations during that time. Providing you have enough time available this weekend you can almost use an unlimited amount of tix.
  2. Return to Ravnica block and M15 rares. These four sets have a substantial amount of rares that promise to hold value in Eternal formats. They will be at their lowest around the end of October.
  3. Some mythics from Return to Ravnica block and M15 will be at their absolute bottom next month. A unique opportunity to jump on these positions that benefit from both redemption and Eternal formats to rebound.
  4. Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir quick flips. You probably won't need thousands of tix for this one but few hundreds spare tix can do great in no time on October 10-12.

Positions Worth Considering Selling

With an expected 20 to 25% decrease in average most of Modern positions are probably worth selling at this point.

Among them, some are at a high point in their cycle--I strongly suggest to sell these. If you hold some of the following card selling now is a good move in my opinion.

Others have gained some value compared to last spring but are not at their highest, and may even have lost some value from few weeks ago. With very little potential gain in an immediate future, it's probably better to sell now and rebuy later if needed.

Positions Worth Considering Holding

These positions have been flat for a while now and are close to their one-year bottom. They may not even dip during KTK release events. You probably won't be able to sell them at a decent price and the best play here is probably to keep them until they rebound later this coming winter.

Actually, these cards may constitute a good buying opportunity at their current price. Waiting a week or two after the release of Khans of Tarkir is nevertheless recommended.

The ZEN Fetchlands

The announcement of the reprint of the ONS fetchlands in Khans of Tarkir had a direct and dramatic effect on the price of the ZEN fetchlands--their accumulated value dropped by about 50% in a little more than a week.

I was holding a nice amount of tix worth of the ZEN fetchlands bought earlier in August, and I was about to sell for a small but decent profit considering the volume. The news ruined everything. Without much time to spend on MTGO on this Labor Day weekend (a holiday here in the US) I sold everything to the best buying bots in two days leaving close to a hundred tix behind.

ZEN fetchlands have now rebounded a little bit. Sure, people still need them to play Modern, Vintage and recently the Legacy MOCS. After all the KTK fetchlands are not here yet. But if ZEN fetchlands are slightly on the rise now they will fall again soon.

Because of this seasonal Modern decline and because of the release of the KTK fetchlands, eventually Misty Rainforest and its acolytes are likely to take another dip. Fresh Polluted Delta and Windswept Heath, probably priced around 5 Tix or less, are going to flood Modern decks and replace some ZEN fetchlands, for better mana fixing or for money issues. This means that some ZEN fetchlands are not going to played any more in decks we used to see them, and in others we'll have a mix of ZEN and KTK fetchlands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

Similarly to other Modern positions my recommendation is to sell ZEN fetchlands now, whether you bought some when they rebounded or you are still holding on the one you bought weeks or months ago--they will never come back to where they were before that last weekend of August.

Once KTK hits, prices of ZEN fetchlands will fall again. Since some ZEN fetchlands are optimal in some Modern decks, such as Scalding Tarn in U/R Storm, they will rebound in October-November but I don't really know how high.

All I know is that I don't want to be guessing the new ceiling of Verdant Catacombs or any other ZEN fetchlands while holding copies of them. And since I'm not an expert in Modern decks I don't really know which KTK fetchland is going to take the place of which ZEN fetchland. There will be so many other Modern opportunities next November anyway.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

What are you thoughts on the KTK and ZEN fetchlands? I think it's not going to be easy for ZEN fetchlands to pass the 15-20 tix value bar again.

 

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain

Insider: Khans of Tarkir Set Review – The Temur Frontier and Green

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I'm not the first to do my color-coded set review so you know how it goes by now.

I will say that I got the wedge I was most excited about doing. First of all, I'm a RUG EDH player and Temur has some goods that I can't wait to jam in 100 card decks. Also, "Temur" is the fifth stupidest-sounding name of all of the clans. All in all this is an exciting time for me, so let's get right down to it and talk about the financials this here set.

Surrak Dragonclaw

Surrak-Dragonclaw-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

You don't want this guy as your Commander. I promise. I realize some of his abilities are good, and when they are on other creatures, sometimes you play them. I have Gaea's Herald in Nath and I have Spellbreaker Behemoth in Mayael. I understand.

But those abilities aren't so good you want them all the time. RUG EDH generals are all about value. You have Maelstrom Wanderer taking you to value town while he gives everything haste. You have Animar, Soul of Elements growing into a formidable threat while making your creatures cheaper. And then you have this slight upgrade on Sivitri Scarzam. Granting your creatures two abilities is good, but not good enough to build around, especially in a format where having your creatures countered isn't super common.

The real question is whether or not this big, bearskin-covered bag of mixed abilities is going to crack the roster in 75-card formats. I can't really say. He's expensive to summon but the format is likely to slow down quite a bit (or you're going to look really silly trying to hit six mana and flip morph dudes otherwise).

I can't predict what the needs of Temur will be in the future, but I almost don't have to. He's preselling on Star City for $15. There's no missing period in there, that's a $ followed by a 1 followed by a 5. That's what they charge for Clever Impersonator. This card has a 99.9% chance of being cheaper than that right away.

The $11 he is on eBay isn't any better. Don't pay $11 for this set's Emmara Tandris.

The Temur frontier is off to a rocky start. But you know what they say, sometimes you punch the bear and sometimes the bear punches you.

Avalanche Tusker

Avalanche-Tusker-Khans-of-Tarkir-Visual-Spoiler

This has the opposite of evasion. Unlike a card like Taunting Elf, it doesn't even require them to assign all blockers to it, which would make it a formidable card with its six power. Instead, you get to call out a creature of theirs that wasn't planning on blocking. Unless it is tapped from using a relevant ability. Or it taps when you declare attackers. Or it has hexproof like some annoying utility creatures do.

No, this guy forces them to block with blocking creatures. I don't find that particularly compelling, but it could impact the game. I imagine this will be useful in Limited. I imagine this is unplayable trash in EDH. This is a bulk rare, folks. Star City wants $0.49. Don't give them that much.

Savage Knuckleblade

Savage-Knuckleblade-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Ooooo. This I like. This guy is going to do some damage to some people with his knuckleblades.

He has what Temur creatures need to be. Let's review.

Aggresive Casting Cost to Power and Toughness Ratio - Check. This guy is practically a Woolly Thoctar which was a card that saw play with no abilities.

Triggers Ferocious - Just like Woolly Thoctar triggered Naya's need for five-power dudes, SK (I call him SK) has the requisite four power, sometimes more.

Has Lots of Abilities - Yes, yes, yes. Not only that, all of his abilities matter. If you don't think haste will matter late, you don't plan on using his blue ability to return him to your hand. You should plan on that.

He can swing for six (six! that's so many!), he can save himself and he can attack next turn after saving himself. This is a perfect aggro-control card. If there were a credible equipment to put on him, you could load up on mana dorks, counterspells and a few more beaters and just ride one dude to victory. Is he Troll Ascetic with a sword or Jitte good? I don't know, but I think he's solid.

Concerning price, he is sold out on SCG at $6 which indicates a lot of hype. Can a non-mythic relegated to a narrow color combination in the most-opened set ever rise in price so much that you're glad you paid $6? I don't know. Even eBay has this guy as a $20 playset. As good as this guy is, I think his price may be about right, rather than a steal. As much as I love this guy, I'm not speculating on his price, but if I want to play with them, I'm not going to wait around for too long for his price to get a ton cheaper.

Temur Ascendency

Temur-Ascendancy-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Admittedly I don't play much Standard. That doesn't mean I am divorced from the goings-on in Standard nor does it mean I forgot how to evaluate cards. It simply means I brew less around prerelease time than I used to.

I don't have a compelling reason for why I don't think this warrants an inclusion in Standard decks. It just "feels" off to me. I can't really articulate why it doesn't seem like it warrants a deck slot. It's going to get value turn after turn. It has a static ability that is relevant, especially in a color combination that wants to be very aggressive and stick one threat and ride it to victory. I just can't imagine running this in a Standard deck. What would you not run?

EDH is a different ballgame. The more I think about not wanting to cut something for this in Maelstrom Wanderer the more I begin to doubt if that's correct. First of all, Maelstrom Wanderer already grants your creatures haste. That shuts off a bit of this card in situations where MW (I call him MW) can be played or has been. But if you cascade into this with MW, you're drawing a card then and there. Afterward, you have a Glimpse of Nature in enchantment form. I'm not sold on him in MW. What about other RUG decks?

Animar is a different story, though. This card is absurd in an Animar deck, and warrants being one of your noncreature cards. But what does that mean for a card like this? It's $1 preorder from SCG (which means it's cheaper everywhere else) but you know what else is under $1? Deadeye Navigator. DEN is an $0.81 card that is a snap-include in EDH decks that can muster blue mana and it's so good it's on informal banlists at two of the shops where I play. Do you want to pay $1 for a card that is narrower and less good because it may see some EDH play? That's absurd.

Here's the thing - DEN is an $18 foil. So while there isn't a ton of money to be made on non-foils, getting foils for $2ish before the price is established seems like a no-brainer. This could end up a bulk foil, but EDH is likely to keep that from happening. You're not super likely to have the opportunity, though, and I wouldn't buy in for cash given my tepid feelings toward the card.

Trap Essence

Trap-Essence-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

At least it says "up to one creature" which means you can still play the spell if you don't have a creature to put counters on. Still, this is clunky, narrow and hard to cast. Bulk rare.

Temur Charm

Temur-Charm-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

I like this a lot. Is it going to be Boros Charm's improbable $4? Nope. I like these for free off of tables after drafts to buylist for $0.45.

Temur Banner

Temur-Banner-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

I think I am cutting Darksteel Ingot for this in EDH decks. Foils of this will be non-trivial.

Frontier Bivouac

Frontier-Bivouac-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Foils of this will be beyond non-trivial. Foils of this will be ridiculous.

Hooded Hydra

Hooded-Hydra

This is one of the best hydras printed lately. I am all about this guy in a lot of decks, not the least of which is Vorel the Hull Clade which relishes the two modes you can cast him, and it relishes doubling his counters with Doubling Season when you play him then doubling the number of snakes you get when he dies. Foils are pre-sold out at $8 which is a clue to you non-100-card-players.

See the Unwritten

See-the-Unwritten-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This is Standard playable. Not only that, this is EDH ridiculous. I think you snap foils of this under $10 and you trade for any opened at the prerelease. I don't want non-foils at $5 given its unproven nature, but I can't wait to cascade into this with Maelstrom Wanderer or copy it with Riku.

Hardened Scales

Hardened-Scales-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Foils are sold out at $6. Sensing a pattern? This has been touted as a potential card in Standard, but these are a safe bet because EDH players are already salivating. While it's true DEN is an $0.81 non-foil now, it was in high demand when it first came out. I like this card a ton and it will see a lot of play somewhere. Get foils now.

Meandering Towershell

Meandering-Towershell-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Ugh. If you find yourself having to use this to beat control, you should re-evaluate your whole life. Bulk.

Rattleclaw Mystic

Rattleclaw-Mystic-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

I don't see this supplanting or even supplementing Sylvan Caryatid. I don't care how explosive its silly ability is one time, I don't think we want a slightly-better Druid of the Anima right now. This card is narrow, clunky and it's the buy-a-box promo, limiting its upside.

This is sold out at $5, but Pain Seer sold out at $12. Lots of people are bad at this. I don't know if this will be more appealing after rotation, but Caryatid outclasses this in every way.

Trail of Mystery

Trail-of-Mystery-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Man... I don't know. Are we getting a ton more morph stuff? There isn't enough to really justify this, is there? The ramp it provides helps you pay the ridiculous morph ransom these creatures cost, but that seems durdly. This doesn't give a boost to face-down morph creatures which are going to eat it to burn spells all day. I don't think this makes Standard's slowest strategy faster reliably enough to warrant an inclusion. Thumbs down.

However, this will shoot toward bulk, where its potential with future sets make it a card to watch. Be prepared to scoop an armload of these (the keyword here is "suspicious tech") but in all likelihood, this will be a dud in sealed pools and little else.

Seek the Horizon

Seek-the-Horizon-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler1

This is the best-looking foil Seek they have printed, which gives it upside if you get in cheap. I'd trade for 100% of these I see but I am not in for cash unless I'm paying close to the non-foil price.

Savage Punch

Savage-Punch-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Some neckbeard is going to collect foils of this, I can already tell. Make him give you $2 each.

This Week On Insider: September 7th – 13th

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Sylvain Lehoux - [MTGO] Goblin Rabblemaster & an Update on M15 Rares

Sylvain recently completed his Nine Months of Portfolio Management series, in which he identified some key patterns throughout the year. With the upcoming release of Khans of Tarkir, and the subsequent Standard rotation, it's time to enact one of his identified strategies.

Since the end of August, the total value of the M15 set has increased by about 20%. This increase is mostly due to an increase of mythic prices propelled by the redemption of the M15 set being now available. As mythics constitute the majority of the core set value, this little bump was anticipated and is normal.

If you don't know which cards are perfect to pick up on MTGO right now, Sylvain's got you covered.


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Ryan Overturf - Mantis Rider Hype and Anger of the Gods in Khans of Tarkir Standard

Ah, spoiler season--the time when the landscape shifts and everything we know about Standard comes into question. With Mantis Rider being spoiled, Ryan scopes out this potential powerhouse:

mantisrider

Take a mana and a toughness away from Lightning Angel and this is what you get. The immediate reaction I've seen from many players is that they would gladly pay the extra mana for the extra toughness. Lightning Strike, Bile Blight and Anger of the Gods are all strong reasons for this.

But, as Ryan goes into, should Anger of the Gods be as feared as it once was? Is it possible the format will favor other board wipes, giving hope for the Rider?


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Sigmund Ausfresser - Recent Standard Movers and Shakers In Prep for Khans

It was an impressive week of change as players across the world prep for a brave new Standard. Sigmund analyzes the trends observed:

The Top 3: Courser of Kruphix, Goblin Rabblemaster, Mana Confluence

These three Standard legal cards have increased 51.4%, 44.4%, and 34.0% respectively. Talk about significant returns! Those who owned these cards more than a week ago likely made significant bank on their investments.

I tip my hat to you – personally I only had a small position in Mana Confluence at the beginning of spoiler season. I had some Rabblemasters but I sold them promptly after their breakout a few weeks ago for quick profit. I own 0 Coursers.

But if these cards are all based on unproven hype, should you have been hawking them? Sigmund prefers to play it safe:

You probably noticed a trend throughout this article, and it’s one that shouldn’t be surprising. Selling unproven cards into hype will always be my recommendation. I take the same stance when investing in the stock market. I refuse to buy stock in a company that hasn’t already demonstrated profitability. Do I miss out on some major opportunities, such as Amazon (which by the way still isn’t profitable)? Absolutely. But it also means I avoid unnecessary risk while locking in sizable profits.

Some people love risk, while others thrive on safer bets. If you haven't read his writing before, Sigmund certainly falls into the latter category.


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David Schumann - MTG Stock Watch Week of 9/7/14

David's MTG Stock Watch series has been a hit. Continuing with it this week, he starts with five penny stocks and five blue chips before moving onto some value stocks.

Curious about the number one penny stock?

#1 Blackmail (+35.2%) - This is a Modern-legal discard spell for one black. It is not restricted in what it can be picked (no three-mana or less, or non-creature spell requirements). While it seems the weakest option as your opponent does get to pick the three cards to reveal, if they only have three or less cards in hand it discards whatever you want. Alternately if all cards in their hand are good it still hits one (just likely their third worst).

blackmail stock

And did you know that Hyena Umbra saw a +17.6% change, coming in at number five?

#5 Hyena Umbra (Planechase) (+17.6%) - While this is a Modern Bogles staple, it's odd that the Planechase ones are commanding almost double that of the Rise of the Eldrazi copies. Sure there are a lot fewer of the Planechase ones in existance, but the artwork is the same. The foil Rise of the Eldrazi copies are only $6 so if you were going to pimp your Bogles deck it doesn't make sense that you wouldn't pay $6 for foil versions instead of $2.5 for non-foil Planechase ones.

hyena umbra stock

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Jason Alt - Rabble Rabble

Ah, Goblin Rabblemaster...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Rabblemaster

Jason starts his article with some light waxing, reflecting (to Insiders--so wasn't written as an advertisement) on the importance of timeliness with the modern MTG market:

I don’t know if you noticed, but Goblin Rabblemaster continues to shock and delight.

Quiet Speculation, as you well know, was well ahead of this card, sending out an Insider e-mail blast in a very timely manner. How timely a manner?

Timeliness Is Next to Godliness

Very timely. There had been a few people jamming the card on MODO and by around Wednesday, July 30th a few financiers were keeping their eyes peeled. The Insider e-mail went out the Friday of the PT in Portland, warning everyone that Rabblemaster was doing big things and big players with big plans were on the card.

Friday used to be insanely early. In previous years, Monday was the day people got around to reading coverage and decided to see if there were any cards played in decks over the weekend that might be worth investing in. Soon that was too late, and stores had already updated some of their prices by Monday afternoon, so you’d need to order a bit earlier in the day on Monday.

Gradually, as the exchange of information got more efficient, it because necessary to order your cards on Sunday. Then it was Saturday. By the time Innistrad block rolled around, QS was on top of Huntmaster of the Fells and Wolfir Silverheart because they had someone on the floor at the PT.

Insiders were aware of this email blast because, well, they received it. We do also send out emails to all newsletter subscribers as well, and you should be able to find a way to sign up for it on the right hand side of this page here. CTRL+F for "The Quiet Spec Fundamentals Guide" to get your name on that list if you aren't looking to become an Insider.


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Corbin Hosler - Looking Back at Magic 2015

Corbin hasn't missed a full set review in four years, and he likes to look back on his review once some time and passed and analyze his predictions.

With M15, Corbin revisits his predictions and comes away some salient personal feedback.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Then:

“They basically turned the “cool reprints” dial up to eleven on this set, and here’s one of the poster children of that. Planar Chaos Urborg was $35 before this, and is currently falling off a cliff. The newest version is going for under $7. This will likely fall to $5 or so in the next few months, and then it’s time to move hard on this, because it will definitely not sit there for more than a few months.”

Now: Sitting right at $5 where I expected it to land. The price has stabilized there and it’s still less than 50% of the price of the original printing. Time to move in on these.

Chord of Calling

Then:

“Surprisingly low preorder at $8. I like this to hold that price moving forward. Not only will it likely make a few Standard appearances, there’s a whole crop of some Modern but mostly Commander players who want this now that it’s not $30.”

Now: Now sitting at $9 after some movement up to $10. Again, right where we expected it to be, and I still think it will hold steady at that price if it sees fringe Standard play. If, on the other hand, it becomes a large part of the metagame, which I wouldn’t be surprised by, it could conceivably go up to $12-15. Keep an eye out in the first few weeks.


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Mike Lanigan - Ascending Into Khans

Mike delves into the Ascendancy cycle, analyzing each shard's contribution to Standard:

Let’s take Sultai Ascendancy as our first case study. The initial aspect of the card that should be noted is that it can help you fill your graveyard. In our graveyard-based deck, filling the graveyard is our primary goal. It helps us cast cheap Nemesis of Mortals as well as allowing our Nighthowlers to become huge. Additionally, now that we’re delving with Murderous Cut, those extra cards put in the graveyard every turn keep our engine going.

The second important aspect of the card is it helps filter our draws. Once you start peeking at the top two and deciding whether or not you like those cards, it will be hard to return to normal Magic. I thought I wouldn’t like this card and I was quite skeptical about it, but testing with it has proven it to be much better than my expectations. Not only does it enable the deck by filling your graveyard, but basically scry 2 every turn is obviously powerful.

Other Ascendancies are going to be great in Standard as well. The fantastic part about this cycle is that when you read each of them, it’s easy to start brewing with them as the core of your deck. Take Mardu Ascendancy for example.

With Mardu Ascendancy, I immediately have a whole tree full of branches sprouting different ideas. This Ascendancy pushes us to start our mana curve below three so that the turn we play it the game is impacted right away. We could take that base idea and apply it to any of the three mono-colored decks but most likely we would end up removing the sweet enchantment for consistency purposes.

For many, the most exciting part of rotation is that chance to create something new. These enchantments do just that--offer up a somewhat blank canvas.


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Danny Brown - Searching for Modern Playables in KTK

Danny turns his eye toward Modern and pulls out a few potential additions.

Khans of Tarkir is looking very cool in a number of ways, but it doesn’t seem to be lighting the world on fire as far as eternal power level goes. I’m seeing a whole bunch of cards that look great for my Maelstrom Wanderer-led Commander deck, but only a few jump out at me as potentially playable in Modern.

I’m consistent in being against preordering cards, but these are ones I’ll be looking to pick up at the prerelease, and especially in the weeks following when prices start to drop.

And, of course, there are these to consider...

The Fetch Lands

khansfetches

You don’t need me to tell you these are going to see play. Watch for the floor, pick up your copies to play with, and make profit on the extras you snag. Just be sure to set your expectations accordingly. Shock lands didn’t turn out as well as we wanted them to, so keep that in mind as you deal with fetches.

 


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Keep Your Hand To Yourself

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tEk21mN

 

Recently, a Reddit post showing Jeff Hoogland with his library and all of his permanents in the "Red Zone" blew up the front page of r/magictcg (until someone else came along and made a post about getting pizza at the LGS and everyone remembered they liked silly junk like that better than they liked being angry).

 

Jeff's response on Facebook was, understandably, that he wasn't sure if some of the people who were seemingly frothing out the sides of their mouths were trolling or crazy. A few of the comments got super personal, which made me laugh because it was happening to Jeff and not me!

On a serious note, this brings up two conversations. The first is what do you think about how people display their permanents? Leave it in the comments section.

The second is a conversation about why it matters. If you're having your space encroached upon, say something to your opponent. If you're watching a coverage video and you feel your jimmies begin to rustle, just remember that you're a stupid spectator and it doesn't affect your life.

Post your worst "my opponent had his cards all up in my grill" story in the comments.

Here's mine - I was at a very crowded event in Manchester, England in 1998. It was Regionals and clearly the event organizers thought a classroom at the University of Manchester was sufficient. People were 5 to a table where it should have been 4. Remember, this is a nation of people who like to drink beer so thick you can chew it and whose national dish is a "breakfast" that consists of bacon, ham, baked beans (I'm not making any of this up, I swear), sausage, fried tomatoes and mushrooms (this kills the vegetables) black pudding (don't google that) and, in lieu of toast, bread that is fried in the bacon fat. They also love to make jokes about how fat American people are, their jowels jiggling as they laugh raucously at their wit. Suffice it to say, quarters were a bit cramped. A 14 year old sits down and starts taking all kind of crap out of his backpack and putting it on the table. A bunch of colored glass beads to keep track of life totals. A tin to keep the beads in. A playmat. A dragon Beanie baby. There wasn't room on the table for all of that junk, and it was in everyone's way. Everyone was too English and passive-aggressive to say anything, but all the crap on the table clearly threw some people off of their game.

That 14 year old? It was ME! Take that, limeys!

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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What Would You Do?

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I cam across what honestly can be described as "LGS drama" on Reddit today, but I think it's worth sharing because it kind of stumped me. And as someone who helps to run tournaments at my LGS, it seems like a really difficult situation to handle. Considering we're heading into Prerelease weekend and there will be a ton of players out and about for all of us, it feels like a topic worth discussing.

Craters-Claws-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Before we go any further, you can find the thread here, but the gist of it is that one player felt like his opponent was being a jerk, and it escalated throughout the match to where the player claiming he was antagonized eventually threatens the other player, and things devolve from there. In the end, both players are DQ'ed but no one is banned.

I have no idea how I would handle this at the prereleases I'll be running this weekend. It's a situation you want to avoid obviously, and there's always tow sides to every story. At the same time, you have to draw a line somewhere. So, after looking that over, what do you think? Do you ban players from the store in situations like this, or can a handshake and a "no hard feelings" leave something threatening in the past? How do you balance it for the rest of the players in the store? It's a tough call, and I'm interested to see what other people think.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: Khans of Tarkir Set Review – The Mardu Horde and Red

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The Mardu Horde worships the Dragon Aspect of Speed, which is symbolized in the Mardu’s Wings of the Dragon. Mardu is based around the color red, the fastest and most aggressive color in Magic, and so Mardu is the most aggressive of the five Clans of Tarkir.

The Mardu Horde embodies the color Red, including all of its its impulsivity and chaos. The white side of the Mardu Horde adds elements of the Boros Legion, including it’s brutal efficiency and zeal for justice. The black side of the wedge adds elements of the Cult of Rakdos, including its bloodlust and thirst for power.

Mardu's keyword ability is Raid, which triggers if its controller attacked with a creature earlier that turn. Keyword abilities tend to be geared for limited play, but the most powerful of the bunch could appear in Standard.

Mardu features cheap, efficient creatures, many with haste. No card embodies the Mardu Horde more than its Khan, Zurgo Helmsmasher.

Zurgo Helmsmasher

Zurgo-Helmsmasher-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This card is purely aggressive and, to the point, a straightforward card that represents the core principles of the Mardu Horde. Zurgo Helmsmasher has Haste, so it nearly always comes into play attacking. With seven power, it hits extremely hard. It’s indestructible on its controller’s turn, so it will cut down blockers when attacking. The last clause is a Sengir Vampire-style effect that grows the creature each time it damages and destroys a creature, so Zurgo Helmsmasher will only grow larger when confronted with chump blockers.

One way to permanently deal with a resolved Zurgo Helmsmasher is targeted creature removal, but it’s only effective after the legendary creature has already had a turn to attack. This makes Zurgo Helmsmasher a relatively low-risk investment and a card that is very likely to create some sort of value. It’s a card that will quickly destroy an opponent if left unanswered. It provides a huge amount of reach and topdeck power, so I see it being an ideal top-end finisher for a Mardu aggro deck in Standard.

The legend rule will temper its popularity a bit, but I can’t imagine that a Mardu aggro deck will not want at least a couple copies of Zurgo Helmsmasher somewhere in its seventy-five.

As far as pricing goes, this is a mythic rare so it demands a premium and will never drop to bulk rare status, but it's also a costly legend that won't be used in playset quantities. I don't expect the price to fall much lower than it's pre-order price of $3, but I also foresee very little upside. Also keep in mind that this card is available in Duel Decks: Speed vs Cunning.

Butcher of the Horde

Butcher-of-the-Horde-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Butcher of the Horde is the de-facto four-of finisher for Standard Mardu decks.

The raw stats on this card are huge: as a 5/4 flying creature for 4 mana. It's comparable to Desecration Demon, but it’s much more reliable. The sacrifice ability is pure gravy--the creature already has flying, which is the most important ability in a creature-centric metagame, but the options for vigilance, lifelink, and haste are all quite useful and will be highly impactful in specific game states.

The option to sacrifice multiple creatures to enable plays like vigilance+lifelink+attack, then lifelink after blocking make Butcher of the Horde a powerhouse on both offense and defense, and it's very difficult to race. The ability to gain haste makes it an unseen threat that will take opponents by surprise and may end games quickly.

It's my pick for the most important Mardu card and the centerpiece of the Horde’s competitive Standard aspirations. As a sure 4-of, it will be highly desirable.

On the other hand, it's just a rare in set that will be opened en masse because of fetchland mania. SCG is out of stock at $5, but on ebay there are some of Buy-It-Now playsets available for $16 and plenty of comparable auctions.

I think the card will maintain a $4-5 pricetag at shops and in trades during the initial release. If Mardu becomes a top Standard deck early on, I could see Butcher of the Horde becoming one of the initial desirable cards in the set and reaching a price of $7-8 before slowly settling back down to the $3-4 range as the set is continually opened. If Mardu falls from grace or never reaches the top tier at all, this card will likely be be worth $2 or less a few months after the release. In that case, I'd look to acquire them cheaply, in advance of a new set potentially bringing the card back into the spotlight sometime during Khan's run in Standard.

Ankle Shanker

Ankle-Shanker-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Five mana for a 3/3 creature is not a great rate, and Ankle Shanker doesn’t do much to actually kill the opponent by itself.

What it does do is push attackers through defenders, and it will be gamebreaking when relevant. Providing deathtouch and first strike, it will send even the smallest attackers through the most robust defenders. It will serve as a great top-end for a rush Mardu deck, where it will push the Horde of small creatures.

This is a niche ability that seems relatively narrow, but in practice I expect Mardu to take the aggressive role in every matchup, and opponents will be blocking at all opportunity. Simply put, Ankle Shanker shuts down blockers.

It’s certainly desirable against creatures like Courser of Kruphix and Sylvan Caryatid. Ankle Shanker will see maindeck play or will fill sideboard slots in aggressive rush Mardu decks.

This card presales for $0.50, and I just don't see it ever commanding more than $1 until Khans of Tarkir is out of print.

Mardu Charm

Mardu-Charm-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Mardu Charm combines a creature removal spell, an instant-speed Duress, and a token-generator with combat trick potential. The first mode is a clean damage-based removal spell that will kill essentially any creature that costs 3 or less, including many format staples. This ability will be the most commonly played part of the Charm and defines its Standard playability.

The discard spell gives the Charm the ability to disrupt hands and proactively interact with the opponent. Together with the first ability, this makes Mardu Charm a versatile and powerful piece of disruption.

The ability to generate two token creatures is a great option when the opponent has nothing to disrupt and simply needs to be killed, so this ability makes the Mardu Charm the total package. This ability also has versatility in combat as a surprise blocker, and there is a lot of value in its ability to keep scared attackers at home.

This card presales for a $1, and I think that's a fine price. With so many packs being opened, the true value is probably a bit lower, but the entire Charm cycle is certainly the premium uncommon cycle of the set and should sit above the rest. For a cheap price, I'd aggressively acquire these Charms when trading or buying stacks of cards, and I'd move them at a premium.

The long-term eternal possibilities of these charms is low, but once we stop drafting this set, the price will only rise.

Mardu Ascendancy

Mardu-Ascendancy-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Mardu Ascendancy works well with the rush of aggressive creatures that the Mardu Horde will surely employ. Every nontoken attacker will generate a free token each turn, which will quickly snowball out of hand and bury an opponent that's already on the backfoot. The enchantment plays well with Mardu’s ability to sacrifice creatures, including Butcher of the Horde.

The second ability on Mardu Ascendancy makes it function like a Seal-style card as a proactive measure against mass-removal spells like Anger of the Gods and Drown in Sorrow.

Mardu Ascendancy rewards aggression, and it comes with the ability to protect aggressive decks from the board sweepers that counteract the strategy. This makes it a truly powerful and useful card and one I expect to see plenty of in the future, whether it be as a maindeck centerpiece abusing the first ability or sideboard option against control decks as a card advantage engine or solution to creature toughness-based board sweepers.

I'd pick them up around a $1 or less. Once players realize how strong the card actually is, I expect it to settle somewhere around a couple dollars. It might never actually rise, but I don't think this will ever see the true bulk bin.

Crackling Doom

Crackling-Doom-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Crackling Doom demonstrates the values of the Mardu Horde. It’s a clean way to remove opposing creature while maintaining pressure as a burn spell. It reminds me like a fixed version of Hit / Run, a card widely embraced by Rakdos Standard decks of the era.

This card is extremely punishing when its controller is ahead on board, but it’s also a way to regain a foothold from behind. This card is also much stronger than a typical edict-effect because it ignores the problem of the opponent sacrificing their weakest creature: Crackling Doom specifically eliminates their creature with the highest power.

It's sold out of SCG at $2, while it's available on eBay for around $1.5. This card is very good, and as players realize that fact the card is going to see more and more play and become highly desirable. I could see this card doubling or tripling in price if Mardu decks quickly establish themselves post-rotation.

Ponyback Brigade

Ponyback-Brigade-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Although only a common, this card lands somewhere between Siege-Gang Commander and Thelonite Hermit. It's a strong card and one I would not be surprised to see in Standard. History has taught us that tokens are quite useful, and often a mass of tokens is more powerful than a single large creature. This card will be best when the tokens can be abused through sacrifice or anthem-effects, so Ponyback Brigade has a bright future in Standard decks built to harness its potential.

I suppose it has long-term commander and casual value, so don't just throw it away, but it will be worth pennies as long as it's in print.

~

Analyzing Mardu in Standard goes deeper than just the three-colored wedge cards. The next logical place to look is Red, which serves as the core of the Mardu Wedge and provides numerous tools:

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Sarkhan-the-Dragonspeaker-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This card is the real deal and a defining pillar of the Standard metagame. Read what I have to say about Sarkhan, Dragonmaster in last week’s article.

It's sold out of SCG for $25, and completed eBay auctions put it somewhere between $15 on the low end and $20 on the high-end. This is one of the best and most desirable cards in the set, and, as a mythic planeswalker, will always demand a premium.

I like the $15 tag and I don't see the card falling a lot more than that, especially because this may even be used as a playset in a variety of decks. Though if the set is really opened in huge numbers and the card fails to live up to expectations, it could theoretically fall below $10, but that is unlikely. In the longterm I could see this settling around $20, but after Theros block rotates out of Standard this could conceivably go right up to $30.

Arc Lightning

Arc-Lightning-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This is a throwback from the overpowered Urza's Saga set. Arc Lightning is quite powerful because it’s capable of a three-for-one against against rush aggressive strategies. In other situations it will function like an Arc Trail, but it’s also capable of doming the opponent for three damage.

This is also another burn spell to add redundancy to and relieve some pressure from the premier red burn spell in Standard, Lightning Strike.

This is a sweet card with longterm upside, so it's one I'll be scrounging for after drafts!

Hordeling Outburst

Hordeling-Outburst-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

Hordeling Outburst is a more powerful version of Dragon Fodder, and I expect it to see even more play than that card ever did. Hordeling Outburst is a bonafide “army in a can” that creates three tokens to be buffed or even sacrificed. This is a key-role player in any Standard token strategy and a card I expect it to be a staple until it rotates from the format if that deck surfaces.

I think this card has great longterm casual value.

Goblinslide

Goblinslide-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This card blows my mind, and when I first saw it I could hardly believe it was real. This is essentially a fixed version of Young Pyromancer, given that it generates tokens from instants and sorceries, but it does require mana.

On the other hand, it’s not a creature and it will be difficult to remove while it threatens to generate value turn-after-turn. Goblinslide also triggers from artifacts and enchantments, so it will even trigger from additional Goblinslides being cast!

This card screams for a chance to be built around, and I believe the right deck could put this card in the top-tier of Standard. The biggest negative to this card is the cost. It requires an investment of four mana before it yields its first token, meaning it’s slow to get started.

I love this for casual play, and it seems like a shoe-in for a lot of commander decks.

Monastery Swiftspear

Monastery-Swiftspear-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This card is not quite the new Goblin Guide, but it’s reasonable by itself and could get out of hand with the right shell of noncreature spells around it.

This technically has some explosive combo potential in older formats like Modern (think Nivemagus Elemental) or even Legacy, so I might store some away for the future.

Jeering Instigator

Jeering-Instigator-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

I am a huge fan of Threaten-style effects, and as Standard Magic evolves towards a creature-focus, this effect grows even better.

The real issue is that this ability is narrow in the sense that it only works against some decks, even then only being good in some situations. On the other hand, this effect is incredibly powerful and offers an immense tempo boost and increased damage potential in some situations. Putting this ability on a creature provides all of the benefits of the effect without the downside.

Placing it on a 2/1 1R ensures the creature will be the highlight, while the Threaten appears only when necessary. The ability to morph the creature as a way to pre-empt an opposing play is great, while in lategame situations, Jeering Instigator can simply be treated as a 6-mana spell.

This is pretty close to a bulk rare, but casual popularity should keep it afloat.

Howl of the Horde

Howl-of-the-Horde-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This card is very powerful and a whole lot of fun. Check out my last article for a deeper look into Howl of the Horde.

This presells for $1, and I don't see it moving much higher than that. It will always live above bulk status, but the longterm prospects for cards like this is never very positive.

Crater's Claws

Craters-Claws-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

An X-spell is always something to consider for an aggressive deck, so it has some place in Mardu decks. X=spells are not efficient in the early game, but they scale up in power towards the lategame where they serve as a mana-sink and offer an incredible form of reach.

The Ferocious ability is not tailored for Mardu, but it plays well with undercosted Mardu killers like Butcher of the Horde and Zurgo Helmsmasher. Because it's not efficient, I don't expect to see a ton of Crater's Claws in hyper-aggressive Mardu decks, but it might be popular in midrange or control-oriented Mardu strategies.

This is a step above bulk-rare status longterm, but as long as it's Standard legal, it will sit somewhere between $0.50-1.
~

Beyond red, there are also some interesting Orzhov cards for Mardu:

Utter End

Utter-End-Khans-of-Tarkir-Visual-Spoilers

This is a very powerful and versatile removal spell, which makes it especially valuable for control decks that must answer any and all permanents.

On the other hand, this card is not efficient and it competes with quality removal spells that do much of the same thing, but for much cheaper--notably Banishing Light and Hero's Downfall. I don’t think this card will see a ton of widespread play, but it will see use as a way to diversify and add utility to a wider removal package.

This card is getting a lot of hype, but in reality it's not comparable to the most efficient removal in Standard. I think the $6 preorder pricetag at SCG is heinous, though eBay auctions show the price somewhere between $3-4. This price will hold during set release, but I expect this to settle somewhere around $2-3 before sliding even lower.

Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Sorin-Solemn-Visitor-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

This planeswalker is quite powerful. It’s tailor made for a rush aggressive deck.

It has two main abilities: one that’s a temporary anthem, and one that generates flying 2/2 vampire tokens. The first ability is great on a full board, while the second ability is excellent for building an army.

The card will never be dead and will always useful in some way--the hallmark of a strong card. The ultimate ability comes quickly, and once active it will put immense pressure on the opponent’s board, so Sorin, Solemn Visitor also demands attention from the opponent.

It’s the total package for a planeswalker and it's a solid roleplayer I expect to see plenty of Standard play. It's not as widely accessible or as powerful as Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker and its price should react accordingly. It has a SCG presale price of $15 and it eBays for around $10-12 a copy.

This one will probably look like Jace, Architect of Thought and sit somewhere around $10 or less unless it takes off, in which case it could double in price sometime over the next year.

Chief of the Edge & Chief of the Scale

Chief-of-the-Edge-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler Chief-of-the-Scale-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoiler

These two creatures are interesting because they scale up and thrive with synergy.

If Monoblue Devotion taught the world anything, it’s that synergy has a very important place in Standard, and aggressive creature decks that employ synergy can ride to the top of the field. This point seems especially important now that Standard lost its best sweeper in Supreme Verdict. These creatures are two-drops with a fine rate on mana to power/toughness, so they stand well on their own. These cards are really only as good as the Warrior’s that accompany them, but given the right shell and metagame, I could imagine them seeing a lot of play.

~

What Mardu cards are you excited about? Are there any homebrewers out there that have a decklist to share? Turn to the comments!

-Adam

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Three DTCGs’ Approaches to the In-Game Clock

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I play the three major digital trading card games around today: MTGO, Hearthstone, and SolForge (although to be fair, since the v4 switchover, I am more of a nominal MTGO player than an actual MTGO player. I'm very hopeful that client improvements will change that sooner rather than later). Multiplayer turn-based games like these require some form of a clock on players to ensure that games don't just sit there with no action. Each of these three games takes a different approach to the in-game clock, but which one is best?

mtgo_logo

MTGO's clock system gives each player 25 minutes and no additional limits on any one turn. However, if you don't make a play within ten minutes, this results in a match loss and being dropped from the event. This can create some feel-bad moments, as Elliot Scott related on Twitter recently:

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This is obviously a frustrating situation. Imagine how much more frustrating it is when the client crashes and you're unable to reconnect within 10 minutes and lose your round. Players complain about this on Twitter constantly, so it's not like this situation doesn't come up all the time. Sure, you'll get reimbursed your entry fee, but what if you were live for prizes? And what about the time you wasted?

On the other hand, without the 10-minute drop rule, salty players could go AFK and hold up tournaments every round. One of the absolute worst parts of MTGO is the long wait times between tournament matches, and not imposing time-out match losses on players would just exacerbate this problem.

Scott is right: losing the match is probably fair, but you should have the option to stay in the tournament if you make it  back before the next round starts. This seems like a simple fix, but lots of things that seem simple stay broken for years on end on MTGO, so I'm not exactly counting on a policy change, at least any time soon.

Hearthstone_Logo

Hearthstone takes a very different approach. Each turn has a time limit of 90 seconds, which can get pretty frantic when you're trying to think through various lines of play. In this sense, Hearthstone is more like paper Magic, except you have an automated system enforcing play speed instead of a judge. Additionally, if a player's turn expires without any actions, the next turn will be even shorter. After a couple turns of this, the match is forfeited.

As a new dad, Hearthstone's system is kind of frustrating. If my son needs a diaper change during the middle of the game, I'm faced with two unpleasant options: make him wait or risk missing a turn. Of course, the games don't last super long, but when the little dude is uncomfortable, a few extra minutes can seem like a long time.

Still, Hearthstone does a great job of moving the game along, probably at least in part because it doesn't allow double-queueing, which both MTGO and SolForge do. However, the 90-second limit can be very frustrating during pivotal turns when you really need to go into  the tank and come up with the best line of play. I've missed more than a few plays because I'm used to the tanking MTGO allows.

solforgelogo

SolForge is the simplest system of all: each player gets 20 minutes on his clock. There's no other limits besides that. The upside to this is that it places the onus on the players to manage their clocks as they see fit. The downside is when you have an opponent go AFK and you have to wait the full time before claiming your victory. It also allows for some angle-shooting where one goes AFK, waits until the clock is almost expired, and then makes a play, hoping that the opponent has gone AFK in the interim and will time out before returning.

In general, I don't think SolForge games need so much time on the clock, and between the extra time and client features, I think players are heavily incentivized to double queue. No matter what game you're playing, having an opponent who plays much slower than you can be absolutely tilting, so SolForge can be frustrating when you're trying to focus on just one match and your opponent is playing several. Still, I appreciate the simplicity of the system.

So Which Policy is Best?

I believe a combination of Hearthstone's turn limit and MTGO's relatively open-ended policy would be the best clock-management system. In a normal match of these games, the clock isn't going to be a factor the vast majority of the time. The clock matters when you have an outside distraction, or a slow-playing opponent, or are double-queueing, so it really comes down to whether designers want to allow or prevent those actions.

A system that enforces timely game actions while still respecting a player's right to carefully think through lines of play at a crucial point in a game would be great. An algorithm that takes into account cards in hand, board state, available options, and other factors could determine on a per-turn basis how much time a player gets. This would provide a healthy combination of moving the game along while not rushing players through turns. As long as a turn timer is very clearly displayed so players aren't caught by surprise, a self-adjusting, variable turn clock could be the answer online turn-based games need.

None of these games has a perfect system yet, but the one that figures it out first is going to get a huge advantage in the DTCG market. Which clock system do you prefer?

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Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

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Posted in Free, MTGO4 Comments on Three DTCGs’ Approaches to the In-Game Clock

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