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Insider: The Importance of Knowing Your Speculation Audience

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One of the most important factors in speculating is buying in at the right time. The problem, of course, is variables. Variables, such as additional printings, playability in different formats, sales of the set in question, and tournament results all influence how a card’s price behaves.

I’m a guy who likes to learn from the past, so I’ve been going over sets from two to four years ago, looking for patterns. We all know that casual cards behave differently than Standard cards, which behave differently from Eternal cards, and so on. But today I am proposing that by identifying which format(s) a card is playable in, we can pinpoint a good time to buy.

Exceptions can be found for every rule, of course, but a starting set of guidelines is necessary before we start getting into those. I’ll provide some examples for each category of card as we go forward. Let’s dig in.

Casual Cards

Some cards are appealing to casual players and casual players only. While these cards are in print, there is plenty of supply and the price is quite low. Only after the card has gone out of print do we see growth. Here are a couple of clear examples:

vorinclexbalefiredragon

While in Standard, these cards saw no competitive play, and were worth merely a pittance. Since leaving Standard, the cards have both grown several-fold. There is sometimes talk that there are so many dragons nowadays that the casual-dragon premium no longer exists, but when a previously bulk mythic rises above $4 based on absolutely no competitive play, that theory definitely comes into question.

The same argument and counter-argument could be made regarding angels.

avacyn

Avacyn started at a high price based on casual demand, never dipped, and has gone up substantially since going out of print. Casual cards are some of the few targets that are often at their lowest prices upon release. However, this doesn’t always hold true, as we can see here:

chromaticlantern

Chromatic Lantern was quickly identified by the community as a card that could go in every multi-color EDH deck, and it subsequently started at a preorder price higher than any price it has reached since. With an overwhelming supply of Return to Ravnica flooding the market, Lantern fell quite a bit, but now that RTR has stopped being printed, we can see hints of growth beginning already.

Verdict: Casual cards may start a little high due to hype, but they often will be listed at their lowest prices during preorder season. These types of cards will generally be readily available for the entire time they’re printed, but once they’re no longer being opened in packs, look out!

Casual cards from Theros block may not be spiking anytime soon, but beginning to pile them away for a couple years in the future could be a slow-but-steady means to profit.

Standard Cards

Some cards are only really appealing for Standard. It’s not that they can’t be or aren’t played in casual formats, but they just aren’t as inspiring as cards tailor-made for casual formats like Commander.

thragtusk

Cards powerful enough for Standard that aren’t good enough for Modern or Legacy are often costed a little too high. Hence, my examples are four- and five-drops. You can’t deny the power of these cards, but they just don’t quite cut it in eternal formats, and thus their prices never really recover after rotation.

heroofbladeholdkothofthehammerhuntmaster

Even though some of these have seen fringe Modern play, none have been established as Eternal staples, despite being everywhere during their respective times in Standard. How the mighty have fallen.

Verdict: Some cards derive value from Standard and nowhere else. If you’re speculating, you need to have rotation, the metagame, and the card’s price history in mind.

Standard-only cards are some of the most volatile specs. Personally, I speculate on Standard cards very rarely, only when I have good information that truly leads me to believe that a card is underpriced. Holding these types of cards through rotation is basically just throwing away money.

Standard Cards with Casual Appeal

Some cards maintain most of their value from Standard but also have a good amount of casual appeal. These cards are generally pricey while in Standard, then dip upon rotation. Once the community collectively realizes that these cards are still sweet but supply is dwindling, some rebound occurs.

elpethtirel

Most planeswalkers behave this way, as I’ve written about previously. Keep in mind that almost all cards have at least some casual appeal, so a card has to truly be cool and unique to see any bounceback after its Standard heyday is over.

tamiyo

Verdict: If you want a Standard staple for your cube or EDH deck, you should wait until rotation (if you’re looking to buy the card at the cheapest possible price). However, if you get a card like this at a decent price while in Standard, just holding it through rotation for play purposes doesn’t necessarily represent a huge loss.

Eternal Only

Some cards are only good in eternal formats despite being available to play with in Standard. These cards act similarly to casual cards, in that they are available for cheap for an extended period. Then they stop being printed and boom, there’s a spike.

pastinflames

The funny thing is that a lot of times, people realize that these cards are going to be really good (or already are), and then they act confused when the card doesn’t spike while still in Standard. Thalia, Guardian of Thraben comes to mind in this regard.

Like with casual cards, these are generally cards to slowly stockpile until the inevitable hit. The important thing is to not get too discouraged in the interim.

omnisciencemasterofthepearltrident

Verdict: Start buying these after the initial hype has worn off and supply has met demand. People are often correct in their evaluations of cards, but then forget those evaluations when an immediate spike doesn’t come. Cards made for eternal formats that are largely ignored in Standard will have their day, it’s just that that day often comes later than others.

Standard Staples with Eternal Pedigree

Eternal-playable cards that also see lots of Standard play are big contributors to why many complain about the expense of competitive MTG. Everyone knew that Snapcaster Mage was going to be a good buy at its floor, but the fact is, that floor wasn’t really all that low.

snapcastermage

The community has caught on that some cards will only grow, so a Standard staple that has also established itself as an Eternal-playable will likely not drop much at rotation. In fact, in some cases, we may see growth before rotation in anticipation of the coming demand.

lilianaoftheveil

Ultimately, these types of cards need to be taken on a case-by-case basis. You may not identify the floor, or the floor may be brief, or not particularly low.

However, because these types of cards are some of the most powerful, even buying in at a non-ideal price will still often be profitable, since Eternal cards have a much higher ceiling than Standard or casual cards. You may have to invest more dollars into specs like this, but if you have a plan and buy intelligently, they can create the biggest profits.

inkmothnexus

Verdict: Probably the best time to buy this type of card is at rotation. However, if you had been stockpiling [card]Snapcaster Mage[/cards]s during its time in Standard, you would not be disappointed today.

If you’re time-sensitive in your speculating like I am, these may be the types of cards you hold through rotation. You could maximize value by selling in the months leading up to it and then rebuying, but when every minute counts, big staples like this can create situations where you can be slightly more lazy.

Know Your Reasons

By knowing who the potential crowd is for a spec, you give yourself a lot of information on when to buy and how long to hold. As you’re considering specs in the future, I encourage you to identify which formats the card is good in. Yes, exceptions can always be found, but following general guidelines is a simple way to guide your actions.

Thanks for reading,

Danny Brown

A Vintage Dredge Primer – Part 1

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Scott Fielder has been playing Magic since the original Ravnica block. One of the things that got him interested in competitive Magic was a tournament report by Stephen Menendian. After reading it he was determined to learn Vintage. Menendian's report about playing Storm in a large tournament was captivating and exciting, and he decided he had to experience all these insane plays Stephen described.

Read Part 2 Here


I  got the opportunity to experience the majesty of the Vintage format in 2010, when I played a Gush list in my first Vintage tournament. I did pretty poorly, but was determined to continue playing the format. I played Dredge in my second tournament, which I won—since then I have played Dredge almost exclusively in Vintage.

Today I'm going to cover the basics of the deck and individual card choices. Next week I'll cover matchup analysis and sideboarding.

Dredge at a Glance

Vintage Dredge is based around the eponymous mechanic from the original Ravnica block, which lets you “draw” the dredge card from your graveyard by milling a certain number of cards and skipping a draw from your library.

The rest of your deck is cards that synergize with the graveyard: flashback spells, creatures that reanimate themselves, etc. These synergies allow you to produce a board presence while disrupting the opponent until you eventually kill them by attacking with creatures and tokens.

The biggest reason to play this deck is that it is heavily favored in game one against most of the format. Your game plan is more degenerate than most, and a majority of the time other decks cannot interact with it. The matchup game one is so one-sided that most decks have to dedicate at least half of their sideboard slots to beat you in games two and three.

A few decks are favored against Dredge in game one, which I’ll cover more in depth next week when I talk about matchups.

Another strength lies in the fact people do not like to test against Dredge. As a result they may not understand the nuances of the matchup after sideboarding—simply mulliganing to a hate card isn’t enough to beat you.

Mulliganing is also very straightforward, as you’re only looking for one specific card in your opening hand. This allows you to focus on other aspects of the game and save valuable mental energy.

Lastly, dredge is one of the more affordable decks in a format with Magic’s most expensive cards. It is fairly easy to build Dredge with just a few proxies.

The Deck

There are multiple ways to build Dredge. Throughout this article I refer to two main builds, the combo and grindy, or more traditional, versions. Below you can find a few recent examples of each.

Combo:

http://sales.starcitygames.com//deckdatabase/displaydeck.php?DeckID=40395

http://www.morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1831&highlight=Bridge_from_Below (2nd place deck)

Grindy:

http://www.morphling.de/top8decks.php?id=1602&highlight=Bridge_from_Below

Here is a list I played recently to a 2nd place finish at a Vintage tournament in St. Paul for a Mox Jet. This would also fall under the grindy/more consistent version of Dredge.

Grindy Vintage Dredge

Creatures

4 Golgari Grave-Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
4 Narcomoeba
3 Ichorid
3 Golgari Thug
4 Bloodghast
4 Ingot Chewer

Spells

4 Leyline of the Void
4 Serum Powder
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Bridge from Below
2 Darkblast

Lands

4 Bazaar of Baghdad
4 Undiscovered Paradise
4 City of Brass
3 Petrified Field
1 Riftstone Portal

Sideboard

4 Nature's Claim
4 Mental Misstep
3 Unmask
2 Firestorm
2 Wispmare

The Core

Regardless of which build you choose to play, certain cards are essential. The following cards should make the cut in all versions of Dredge--don’t leave home without them.

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This card is the only reason this deck is viable. It is the card you are looking for in your opening hand and besides some very strange corner cases, you should mulligan any hand without it.

Bazaar is an uncounterable way to power through your deck, putting cards in your graveyard and dredging them as well. It is also great at helping you find sideboard cards in games two and three. Don’t ever think about playing less than four.

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These are the cards that have the highest dredge count and help you dig through your deck the fastest. You need a really good reason not to run four of each.

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Thug is usually not a four-of, but more commonly a two- or three-of. He helps get you closer to the critical mass of dredgers that you need and is also cheap enough to cast in sideboard games when facing graveyard hate.

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Even though the dredge on this card is somewhat low it makes up for it in utility. This helps you fight against creature decks, especially decks with Yixlid Jailer after sideboard.

It also acts as a combat trick, killing a blocked Ichorid before damage to save your Bridge from Belows. It is also easy to put back into your graveyard, as it is the easiest to cast of your dredge cards. And it has always been a good answer for Yixlid Jailer. Usually a two-of.

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I have grouped these together because they are both creatures that enter the battlefield for free by simply playing your deck. Narcomeoba enters the battlefield when you dredge and Bloodghast just needs a single land drop to return to the battlefield.

These are core staples and played as four-ofs in both the traditional and combo builds.

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Ichorid has great synergy with this deck as a good amount of your dredgers are incidentally black creatures. It's your best way to produce zombie tokens with Bridge from Below without any help from other cards.

Ichorid is played in all versions of Dredge. In versions looking to be more consistent and grindy usually as a three-of, and in more combo-oriented versions as a two-of.

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Never play Dredge without this card. It is the source of your board presence and on par with Bazaar in terms of importance. It makes all the cards in your deck better.

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When you think to yourself, “Self, I can play just three of these right? Yeah let’s cut one.”--Don't do it. This card is your disruption and gives you value with all of your free creatures and Bridge from Bellows. It does everything you want and getting good at playing with this card will make you a dangerous Dredge player. Just play four every time.

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If Bazaar is the card you want to find in your opening hand then playing four of these is a necessity. It helps you avoid having to lose due to multiple mulligans and makes the deck more consistent. Remember that activating Serum Powder does not count as a mulligan.

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This is the best five-color land you have access to. It does not deal you damage and has amazing synergy with Bloodghast. I think this is the first land you should be playing after Bazaar and you should play four.

Optional Inclusions

The next set of cards are very playable in dredge, but not in every version. Which ones you include will determine whether a build tends more toward consistency or explosiveness.

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Another great five-color land that helps you cast all of your sideboard cards. It is mostly found in the main deck, but from time to time is found in sideboards, usually as a four-of either way. May have been obsoleted by our next entry...

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Mana Confluence is a strict upgrade to City of Brass and I expect it to replace it in Vintage altogether.  Tangle Wire is a real and widely played card in all the different Workshop archetypes and of course Rishadan Port exists.

Whether or not Dredge moves to more than four of this kind of land in the future remains to be seen. Will be in main decks most of the time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Petrified Field

A great resource to return Bazaar of Baghdads hit by Wasteland or Strip Mine. Also has good synergy with Bloodghast when you have one in your graveyard and one in play. You can sacrifice the one in play to get the one in your graveyard and have landfall for Bloodghast every turn. Usually found as a three- or four-of in different variations, but more often in the grindier versions.

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Gives you the option to cast some sideboard cards with Bazaar of Baghdad. Helps to get through taxing effects, such as Lodestone Golem, Sphere of Resistance and Thalia, Guardian of Thraben. Usually only found as a one-of.

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The only land ever printed with the dredge mechanic. It has great synergy with Bloodghast and increases the number of dredge cards in your deck. More commonly found as a two- to three-of in the combo versions that want to be able to return Bloodghasts at a moment’s notice.

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This card is strictly played in combo versions of Dredge, usually as a three-of. Unearthing Fatestitcher lets you untap Bazaar and continue to dredge and find your kill condition.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Sapphire
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These particular cards are almost exclusively played in combo Dredge. Lotus and Mox help you unearth Fatestitcher and cast both Ancestral Recall and sideboard cards. Lion’s Eye Diamond is one of the few cards that gives Combo Dredge the ability to kill on the first turn and is mostly used to cast flashback spells and unearth Fatestitcher.

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These two cards serve similar purposes. They are not very commonly played as you are already likely dredging three times a turn and the fourth dredge is usually irrelevant. These slots these would take up are more commonly used to pre-sideboard against particular decks for game one. You won't see more than two of these in any build, if they're included at all.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dread Return

This card allows you to sacrifice multiple creatures to reanimate a large creature which could win on the spot or disrupt your opponent's game plan. It has great synergy with Bridge from Below and usually means the end of the game is near when it resolves. This is more commonly played in higher numbers in the combo versions of Dredge (3-4 copies) and in lesser numbers in the grindier versions (0-1).

Dread Return Targets

If you elect to run Dread Return, myriad targets are available. Different targets will be preferable in different metagames and against different decks.

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Sun Titan shows up in the combo versions of Dredge. When reanimated it can bring back a Bazaar of Baghdad, which lets you keep dredging while triggering landfall for Bloodghasts at the same time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Griselbrand
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These two are almost always found alongside one another. When you successfully Dread Return Griselbrand, it is very easy to put your entire library into your graveyard with the draw-seven ability and then reanimate Laboratory Maniac and trigger it to win the game.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flame-Kin Zealot

The most common Dread Return target, which allows you to win the same turn it comes into play by giving any new zombie tokens haste and a power boost. Usually found alongside Sun Titan, but also found in many lists as the sole Dread Return target.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite

Elesh Norn is almost always found in Dredge sideboards. It is strictly for the mirror and creature decks. Elesh Norn shuts off Dread Return and makes sure that your opponent will never have creatures in play in the mirror match.

Dredge Sideboards

Now I will talk about popular sideboard options Dredge. One thing to note is that dredge decks usually have around 4-12 slots in the maindeck occupied by cards that would typically appear in sideboards. What fills these maindeck slots depends on your expectation of the metagame.

Because you mill a good portion of your library every turn, Dredge has the luxury of playing situational cards in the maindeck even though they may be dead in certain matchups. Finding them is easy since you're flipping over your entire deck, but they aren't likely to gum up your hand.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nature's Claim

This is one of your most versatile sideboard options and every Dredge deck should be running four in the board. This takes care of Grafdigger’s Cage, Leyline of the Void, Rest in Peace, Tormod’s Crypt, Relic of Progenitus, Pithing Needle and much more. It doesn’t usually show up in the main deck, however, as metagame cards in the maindeck are usually more narrow.

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This is your best card against Workshop decks and decks with Grafdigger’s Cage in sideboarded games. If there are lots of shops in your meta this is a great card to play in the maindeck as a four-of.

Chewer gets around Mental Misstep, Thorn of Amethyst, Chalice of the Void at one, Spell Pierce and Flusterstorm. Evoking him also makes zombie tokens off of Bridge. This has become more popular in maindecks as a four-of in most versions of Dredge.

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This card shows up quite often in the main deck or sideboard as a four-of. It is your tech for the mirror match, protects your Bridge from Belows, and cuts off Yawgmoth’s Will against combo decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Unmask

This is another card that shows up in both maindecks and sideboards as an anti-combo card. It also helps answer hate cards, either by stripping them from an opponent’s hand or protecting your answer to resolved hate from counter magic. It helps against cards like Surgical Extraction, Ravenous Trap and Extirpate.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mental Misstep

Mental Misstep is mostly there to fight Grafdigger’s Cage, Pithing Needle, Relic of Progenitus and Nihil Spellbomb, as well as your opponent’s Missteps that are trying to counter your sideboard answers.

It also stops tutors that find Tinker for Blightsteel or the missing part of the Vault/Key combo. Mostly shows up in sideboards as a four-of.

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Wispmare is almost strictly found in sideboards and is there to destroy Leyline of the Void and Rest in Peace. Like Ingot Chewer it gets around Misstep, Spell Pierce, Flusterstorm, Chalice and Thorn.

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Firestorm is great as an alternate discard outlet and seems more intriguing since the printing of Deathrite Shaman and Scavenging Ooze. It has always been a good answer to Yixlid Jailer. You will usually not find more than two of this in a sideboard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chain of Vapor

This is your most versatile sideboard option. It bounces all the permanent-based hate cards and protects you against Tinker for Blightsteel Colossus from the blue decks. The only reason not to play this card in your sideboard is if you have a really good read on the metagame or shops are really popular where you play. This is usually found as a three- or four-of in sideboards.

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This is most commonly found in the maindeck, but has decreased in popularity. It is best at keeping your opponent from tinkering quickly in game one and buys you time against combo. Chalice should be considered if you have a combo-heavy metagame. Usually found as a four-of in the maindeck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serenity

Serenity is a great catchall answer for many of the popular hate cards Dredge is up against after sideboard. It is almost exclusively found in sideboards as a two- or three-of, but is not terribly popular due to the fact that it costs two mana and there are many great answers at one or zero.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Contagion

Contagion is not seen as much in Dredge sideboards any more, but was very popular when Vintage dredge decks played less than 12 lands. It’s a great way to kill Yixlid Jailer, Deathrite Shaman, Scavenging Ooze, etc. Usually found as a three- or four-of in sideboards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancient Grudge

Grudge is most commonly seen when Workshops are prevalent in the metagame. This is a great answer to Pithing Needle, but usually not against all the other artifact-based hate. It is usually most helpful in game one to break up the Time Vault/Voltaic Key combo.

Most of the time in sideboarded games you will flash it back to kill a Pithing Needle, Relic of Progentius or Tormod’s Crypt, which your opponent can simply respond to by using them to nuke your graveyard. You cannot cast it under Graffdigger's Cage and Pithing Needle is not a popular sideboard card in general.

 

Part 2

Each step of a turn, tactics, triggers and timing. I'll also cover sideboarding strategies and matchup analysis.

So Many Marsh Flats

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I feel pretty good, because I think the most ironic thing I said in preparation of the Modern event deck was "I will be surprised if there isn't at least 1 Marsh Flats in there." If I had gotten a little cockier, I'd feel silly right now.

And make no mistake, there was some cocky talk on the interwebs. I saw one exasperated reddit poster essentially lose it and unload a "Why are you people so convinced there won't be any fetches in the Modern Event Deck?!?" and I saw speculation the ranged from 1 Marsh Flats to 3 and even included people saying the deck might include a Misty Rainforest or Scalding Tarn for splashed off-colors. You couldn't make this up.

Even I was convinced that the unbanning of Bitterblossom coincided too conveniently with the announcement of the deck and that the 2-sided token was a 1/1 human for Elspeth on one side and a 1/1 Faerie for Bitterblossom on the other. Bitterblossom's price went way up for no reason, and a reprint would bring it back down. The list was announced tonight on the Mothership.

4 Caves of Koilos
2 City of Brass
4 Isolated Chapel
5 Plains
4 Swamp
1 Vault of the Archangel
4 Windbrisk Heights

2 Soul Warden
3 Tidehollow Sculler

3 Honor of the Pure
2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Intangible Virtue
4 Lingering Souls
3 Path to Exile
4 Raise the Alarm
2 Shrine of Loyal Legions
4 Spectral Procession
1 Sword of Feast and Famine
3 Zealous Persecution

1 Elspeth, Knight-Errant

Sideboard
2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
2 Dismember
3 Duress
2 Ghost Quarter
3 Kataki, War's Wage
3 Relic of Progenitus

WOW. If I worked at WoTC and saw the tweets where people were arguing about how many copies of Marsh Flats and Fetid Heath would be in the deck, I would work on lynch mob-proofing my house in preparation for the announcement.

This deck has some value, but no one is going to pay $75 to play with this, are they? If your FNM is Modern, you still don't stand a chance with this deck. If you play this you can probably beat reasonably loose Standard decks, but this isn't cutting it. I don't see these selling well and, luckily, I don't see these upsetting too many prices. Caves of Koilos may take a beating, but I'll file that under "Who cares?"

All in all, the hype that built up around this product was bound to lead to disappointment. Those who went to bed with visions of a playset of Elspeth, Knight-Errant and Marsh Flats were going to be let down by anything less. Might I submit that someone who literally could not have cared less about this product for anything but a "how will this impact prices?" perspective still managed to be disappointed?

Real talk, this totals far above $75 and while a lot of the value is in small stuff, that may actually help the prices stay up. This isn't flooding the market with Elspeth nor is it flooding the market with Path to Exile. The sword, the Elspeth and the sideboard goodies may help take the sting out of the feeling of "we were promised jetpacks" that people feel right now even though that was pure invention on their part. We'll see what this does to prices.

In Case You Care About EDH

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Hey, all!

If you read my work but stopped 6 months ago, you may not know that I'm an EDH guy now. This happened when I realized it made a lot of financial sense to start hanging out with EDH players and stash pimp EDH cards that take a long time to sell in decks instead of letting them rot in boxes. More people see your pimp cards over the course of a game than go through your binders and boxes. I don't regret my decision to start jamming EDH and you should give it a try if you haven't already.

To wit, I came across a reddit post an Ultra Pro representative made to promote a contest they're doing. Players and fans can vote on their favorite EDH cards and the winner at the top of the heap when voting concludes will be put on a special deckbox and sleeves. Not too shabby! I voted, and you can, too. The link to the facebook voting is in the description of the post I linked. This is a fun thing to do and you should go vote.

Who do I hope wins it all?

Like you even had to ask.

Make sure to vote and make my Maelstrom Wanderer Sleeve dreams a reality.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider Video: Zwischenzug Plays Cube Draft

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Drafting & Deck Building

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn Liberated

Round 1

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Round 2

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grim Monolith

Round 3

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grave Titan

Insider: Wall Street Versus MTG Finance

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Not a day passes by when I don’t take a moment to evaluate the price shifts of key cards in my collection. It may seem excessive, but if mtgstocks.com demonstrates one thing, it's that there is always significant movement somewhere in the market. As an MTG Investor with money in these assets, it is my responsibility to educate myself on these price movements.

Friday of last week was no exception. I was browsing eBay Buy it Now listings and TCG Player, as I always do, when I made a revelation. Okay, perhaps “revelation” is too strong of a word. It would be more accurate to say I came up with a musing for myself, and when I thought longer about it I realized there was some truth to the thought.

Naturally in the year 2014 there’s only one correct action when you come up with a thought worth sharing. You Tweet it!

Tweet

Most people know I am heavily involved in both MTG Finance as well as Stock Market investing. Some of my Twitter followers are in the same boat, and naturally some of them had some reacting thoughts to share.

And there were many. Some of the conversations branched off into other debates as well. Here’s a link to some of the conversation, and if you click around I’m sure you’ll find further debate: https://twitter.com/acmtg/status/464857052733374464

Why I Am Right

Now that I've had most of a weekend to consider the above Twitter conversation more fully, I realize my comment swept too broadly and couldn't be 100% accurate. If I add some qualifiers, I believe the statement strengthens in validity. How about this:

“Investing in high-end MTG cards, especially when graded and on the Reserved List, has yielded a better performance than the S&P 500 and will likely continue to outperform in the next few years.”

Now the statement conveys a more precise summary of my line of thought last Friday, which is more defendable with actual data. Where can I find historical MTG price data? Once again my seemingly worthless InQuest Magazine collection comes through and pays dividends!

Lotus and Moxen

These images (forgive the low quality) come from the oldest InQuest issue in my collection: Issue number 5, released in September 1995.

Nearly 19 years ago the Atlanta Braves were just about to win the World Series, America was enraptured by Apollo 13 (though Toy Story was the best seller), The Soup Nazi episode of Seinfeld made everyone laugh, and you could buy a NM Alpha Black Lotus at retail for $350. Moxen retailed for $225, and Ancestral Recall was $140 at retail. I won’t even tell you how cheap NM Alpha Dual Lands were. Okay, fine I’ll tell you: Underground Sea was $40 on the high end and $20 on the low side.

Now that we've digested all of this data, we need to pull some current retail prices and do some math! There is one Alpha Black Lotus in stock on TCG Player – a MP copy for $9500. Star City Games is sold out of these at $9999.99. It’s safe to say a NM copy would retail for more than $10,000 if SCG actually had one in stock, but we’ll use this number to remain as true to the numbers as possible.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

At $10,000 retail now, nice condition Alpha Lotuses have appreciated from $350 to $10,000 (2750%) over nineteen years. In the same time period the S&P 500 went from about 580 to 1880 – a 220% gain. While we’re at it, here are the percentage gains for the other cards I cited above:

  • Ancestral Recall: 2400%
  • Mox Sapphire: 1670%
  • Mox Jet: 920%
  • Other Moxen: 780%
  • Underground Sea: 14,900% (!!!!)

In every case, high quality, iconic Magic cards have all outperformed the overall Stock Market by an overwhelming margin. Thus it’s safe to say the historical component of my revised claim should be inarguably true.

Looking Ahead

Magic has absolutely exploded over the last few years. It’s a cultural phenomenon mirrored by no other experience. The concept of collecting, trading, buying, and selling cards that you can also play with was just about unheard of when this game was created. Now Magic: The Gathering is breaking into mainstream with a movie deal! Talk about significant growth!

Will Magic continue to grow at this same rate for another 19 years? Impossible. While we all hope there’s more growth for the game ahead, there’s no way it can repeat the growth from the last 19 years. The larger something becomes, the harder it is to grow meaningfully. Magic will run into this barrier at some point.

In a similar vain, there’s no way NM Alpha Underground Seas can duplicate their performance from the last 19 years. If they did, we would have these pieces of cardboard selling for $900,000! Not going to happen.

Despite the slowing growth, the future will still bring appreciating prices. There is a market for this high end stuff. Back in February someone bought a BGS 9 Alpha Black Lotus on eBay for $11,999.99 (plus $9.99 shipping).

Sold Lotus

This data suggests there are buyers at these prices. Because the player base is aging with the game there are collectors out there with the spare resources to invest in these rarities. The more MTG players are successful in their lives, the more they generate the cash flow needed for such purchases. And of course the rapid appreciation of Legacy and Modern staples has also enabled high-end cards to rise.

A case can certainly be made for the future growth of high end, Reserved List cards.

Why I am Wrong

My statement glosses over one drawback, which is why I cannot truly recommend such a strategy to the community: RISK.

MTG Finance is akin to the Wild West. It almost reminds me of the gold rush--a few individuals discover the profits that can be made from Magic, and now you have many more looking for a portion of the profits. There is little in terms of regulation, allowing for market manipulation, counterfeits, and misinformation strategies to take form.

What profoundly concerns me most is Hasbro’s control over the situation. They completely control the faucet of this market. If they wish to print more copies of a card they can do so. We rely on the ramifications of the broader market to keep Hasbro in check, but this is not your typical shareholder-company relationship. Hasbro’s interests are in their bottom line so they can return value to their shareholders. The shareholders are the ones ultimately holding companies accountable.

There is no such accountability when it comes to the consumers of a company’s products. If there was, then prices would never increase on a bottle of Coke. Who would want to pay more for the same product? Yet prices inevitably increase to drive profit growth and reward shareholders for their loyalty. Thus, I would argue Hasbro is not as heavily focused on the MTG Speculator/Investor as they are on the shareholder.

The possible implications of this conclusion spread a wide array of possibilities. As of today, there is sufficient overlap between the shareholder and the MTG investor so a symbiotic relationship is established. Magic investors are happy with the game’s growth much like Hasbro is, so they are confident that their Vintage and Legacy staples are likely to appreciate further.

If one day the strategies of Hasbro shifts, this could no longer be the case. It seems impossible that such a shift in goals could occur because we are so focused on our own paradigms. We believe the recent growth of MTG is terrific for everybody so why change it?

What we have to remember is that companies have many factors in motion at once when they prioritize strategies. Magic is just one segment of a broader company, and changes in priorities can happen at any time and without forewarning.

Lastly, there are no government regulations mandating MTG Speculators follow certain rules when it comes to MTG Finance. If a well-networked individual wanted to manipulate the market they could do so. Incomplete information leads to players getting ripped off all the time (though at least smart phones have limited this). Just like the Wild West, there are few rules that govern MTG Finance. This lack of rules makes me most uncomfortable with the idea of major MTG Investments.

Wrapping It Up

At the end of the day it comes down to a risk tolerance decision. Magic presents opportunity for excellent financial gain, but that comes with a risk. When I purchase shares of Coca-Cola, I know I’m buying a portion of the company’s ever-reliable profits. This comes with sustainability and accountability (after all, shareholders to get a vote in major company decisions).

When I buy a piece of Power I am banking on the growth of a game. I am given no voting rights and I have no way of holding Hasbro accountable for their actions. This gives me great discomfort, so I invest only a fixed amount of resources in the game of Magic. Just because MTG offered unmatchable yields over the past two decades cannot guarantee such growth in the years to come.

Thus I conclude I must remain mostly focused on Wall Street, with only a fractional eye on MTG Finance. While I enjoy the game of Magic much more than digital shares of a company, a conservative growth target with the right risk balance is best for my family at this time. Of course everyone’s risk tolerance differs, and you may conclude the exact opposite.

…

Sigbits – Sold Out!

  • Star City Games has exactly two Black Lotuses in stock. Both are graded copies. This is consistent with the buzz in the forums that someone has been buying up lots of Power.
  • Star City Games also has only graded black bordered Moxen in stock. They have exactly 12 Unlimited Moxen in stock across all five versions.
  • Star City Games also remains out of stock on Bazaar of Baghdad, though I did notice they have other Vintage staples like Mana Drain, Time Walk and Mishra's Workshop in stock.
There was an error retrieving a chart for Bazaar of Baghdad

Vintage Masters Spoilers Begin!

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As someone who's been playing Magic for about five years, you may not have expected that I played much Vintage. After all, who really does?

And, to be fair, it's not like I'm slinging Moxes all over. I've never owned a piece of power (closest I've come is a Bazaar of Baghdad in my personal collection), I don't love Workshops and I've never attacked a Jace with a Slash Panther. That said, when I was GP Vegas last year someone was nice enough (or desperate enough just to play), so he loaned me his Vintage deck and we went to town.

It was interesting, to say the least. Much like Legacy, the reality does not match perception. It's not all about Black Lotus into Turn 1 wins. It's deeper and more fun than that.

That said, no one ever really gets a chance to play Vintage because of how rare the cards are.

Until now.

Yeah, now you get to cast this. If you can handle MODO, that is.
Yeah, now you get to cast this. If you can handle MODO, that is.

Vintage Masters is coming to Magic Online, and I'm sure it's going to be awesome. Spoilers started rolling in for the set, and you can find the full, up-to-date list on the Mothership here.

Enjoy some Vintage!

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, Free, VintageTagged , 2 Comments on Vintage Masters Spoilers Begin!

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Know your deck!

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This story comes to us courtesy of /u/Toxygene on reddit.

Yesterday, at GP Minneapolis, I was playing Kiki-Pod against Affinity. After winning game one, game two was very close. I cast a Harmonic Sliver and destroyed his Arcbound Ravenger and next turn cast Phantasmal Image and had it enter the battlefield as a copy of Harmonic Sliver. I stated that two destroy artifact/enchantment triggers were going on the stack. He asked why and I realized that I didn't actually know why... I just knew I had seen other people do this. We called a judge and he ruled that I got one trigger. I appealed the ruling and the head judge ruled that I got one trigger. I used the trigger to kill a Cranial Plating and swung. That put him in range of death from another attack next turn, with me safely out of range. He top decked a Cranial Plating and swung for lethal. I was trounced in game three and I dropped with a 3-3 record.

Today, I looked up the rules for Harmonic Sliver and I believe the judges ruled incorrectly. My Phantasmal Image should have acquired the Slivers gain destroy artifact/enchantment ability and this ability is cumulative with the other Harmonic Sliver, giving me me two ETB triggers.

Am I correct here? If so, who should I contact about this? I'm not looking to have my record changed or anything, but I would like the judges to be informed about the mistake so it doesn't happen again.

EDIT: I jumped onto Ask A Judge chat (http://chat.magicjudges.org/mtgrules/[1] ) and one of the judges stated I get two triggers because the second Harmonic Sliver (Phantasmal Image) should read:

Harmonic Sliver Type - Sliver When this permanent enters the battlefield, destroy target artifact/enchantment. When this permanent enters the battlefield, destroy target artifact/enchantment.

EDIT 2: I sent an email to the tournament organizer outlining these details. He has forwarded it to the head judge.

Sometimes you are at a small event with only one judge and their ruling, correct or otherwise, is final. You have no appeal rights and the only thing you can do is kick the matter up the chain when you get home.

Even worse, sometimes you appeal the floor judge's ruling and the head judge also makes a mistake. It's rare but it happens. There are some ways you can protect yourself.

If you have an interaction that is questionable like the sliver ruling, either go on "ask a judge" chat (link provided) and get a ruling. Print out a screenshot of the ruling and bring it with you. It may help you if the judge is confused if he has verification from a level 2. A printout of the relevant rules that pertain to the interaction are also handy. Judges have to keep a lot of info in their heads and it is much easier on them if they can interpret the relevant bit of rules text rather than trying to extrapolate from their knowledge of Magic rules as a whole. Judging can be confusing. Remember they're only human.

If you do lose on appeal, don't let it tilt you. There is literally nothing you can do about it at that time, so all you can do is try to keep calm and not let it ruin your play. You will have to go through the event appeal procedure here.

Remember, you can't argue with the head judge. Even if they're wrong, their ruling is final. Keep calm, appeal through the DCI channels after the event. I watched a guy yell at a judge and threaten to quit Magic over a ruling about Blood Moon and Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth. No one won there. I think the guy made good on his promise - I haven't seen him since. Don't let that be you.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in FreeTagged , 4 Comments on Know your deck!

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An 8 year old, a Modern Tournament and a Great Community

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I'm shameless stealing the title from this Reddit post because it's a great title and even better story.

You can check out the full post here (and it's well worth reading), but I wanted to share this story because I think it illustrates one of the best things about our community: that it's (for the most part) welcoming to newcomers.

I remember my first-ever PTQ, I get paired up against some 10-year-old kid in the first round. I felt awkward because here I was, at my first "real" tournament, and I get paired against a kid in the typical "no-win" situation. If I win, I beat a kid. If I lose, I lost to a kid. I was playing Living End, and after I cycle one card this kid tells me exactly what deck I'm playing.

I went on to win, but for the rest of the day my opponents are confused about my deck as I made my way to the finals. In this swiss rounds, it was only that kid who was actually knowledgable enough about the format to know what he was up against. Gained a lot of respect for that kid that day, and I'll never forget that.

Of course, the joke was on me, because the kid, Kyle Morlock, qualified for the Pro Tour before I ever did after he won a PTQ when he was 12 years old. Pretty nuts.

So when I hear a story about the community welcoming a kid into the game, I want to make a note that sometimes kids know more about the rest of us. Age is truly just a number, and stories like this are key to the continued growth of Magic. If the game becomes a bunch of 40-50 year olds playing, we're doomed. It's new blood that keeps the game going, and taking every chance you have to welcome kids into the game is a task worth taking the time to do right.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Casual, Feature, FreeTagged 2 Comments on An 8 year old, a Modern Tournament and a Great Community

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Retention

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Casual players are kind of like your the contents of your bladder- it is in your best interest to retain them.

I was at the shop today just durdling and I ran into some casual players.

How Casual Were They?

I cannot make this up. One of them looked through my trade binder for a while and handed me his binder. Again, not making this up - every page in the binder had a basic Forest.

You can't make this up.

Needless to say no trades happened. He also asked how much the store was charging for basic land. As someone who has to come up with creative ways to get rid of something like basic land which I consider virtually worthless, I was floored. Who buys basic land that isn't full art or foil? Maybe I should have traded him some Swamps for the Forests in his binder.

The First One's Free

I didn't have bulk on me and I wasn't about to go home and get it, so I offered them free cards if they came to casual night on Monday. I have no idea if they'll come back, but if they do, their basic land and Theros block draft chaff problems are solved.

This was my first encounter with adults who presumably got to the store under their own power treating draft chaff like it was gold. I really hope they come back so I can hook them up and they can make a habit of coming back to the shop. I am likely getting nothing out of it financially, but if we can grow the community a little, that seems like a solid strategy.

Be Prepared

This whole encounter and how naked I felt not having garbage on me to make their day made me decide to stash some draft chaff and basics in a box and keep it in my car. Younger kids or adult super-casuals coming into the shop would get a kick out of getting stuff to build decks with. This also makes me want to double down on my strategy of keeping instant collections made up in the case I manage at a different shop. We sometimes forget that there are super casuals out there. I've met more people in my life with foiled-out EDH decks, people with Guru Islands in their Mishra's Workshop Vintage decks and people who have conversations like "I am considering upgrading my Beta power into Alpha" than I've met who have basic lands in their trade binders. But I would guess that most people who play Magic play casually, and this may have been the first time these people played a game that wasn't at their own kitchen table. I want them to keep coming back and become a part of the community. I hope free cards will be enough to encourage that.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: Virtually Infinite – Why Vintage Masters Will Revitalize…Legacy?

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This is Part five of our series on getting more from your MTGO dollar by speculating and playing wisely. Parts two and three covered why Constructed provides the best value for your dollar. All else equal, you might as well buy into a format where your cards will appreciate in value.

Our last installation highlighted some competitive Modern decks you can buy for less than a Standard or Block deck. You’ll never be sorry if you buy into Modern now, since the long-term trajectory is strong. But if you have a larger bankroll there’s an even greater opportunity on the horizon: Vintage Masters.

logo_vintagemasters

Vintage Masters releases on June 16 and will feature over 200 reprints, including the Power 9. For many of us, this will be our first chance to own the most iconic cards in Magic’s history.

As someone who has played since 1995 without resolving Black Lotus in a tournament I am pretty stoked. Having the full Vintage pool online is sweet, and will for the first time bring Legacy into the mainstream of Magic Online.

Wait, what? Legacy?

Here’s my hypothesis: with Vintage Masters we are on the verge of a renaissance in Legacy that will see increasingly higher prices. It’s already starting. Last week the Master’s Edition original dual lands increased by an average of 15-20%. The first order play is to invest in Vintage staples; the second order play is investing in Legacy staples, and I think that’s where the smart money is at.

The Impact of Vintage Masters on Legacy

Legacy is one of the most popular formats ever, with a dedicated fan base that will travel hundreds of miles to play in tournaments. But Legacy has never been big on MTGO because of two barriers.

The first obstacle is community. There aren’t as many Legacy events, they draw fewer players, and the vast majority of online players don’t have a Legacy deck.

There is a small core of Legacy enthusiasts online, but they are mostly relegated to the two- and eight-man queues. For a long time the Legacy Daily events would not even fire (though these have become much more reliable over the past year.) That said, the lack of a large player base is holding the format back from its potential popularity.

The second obstacle is card availability. Until last month, Force of Will cost 100 tix and Lion's Eye Diamond 130 tix. Wasteland is 70 tix, Show and Tell is 65 tix, Rishadan Port is 105 tix and Misdirection is 70 tix. The mana base of duals and fetches is expensive.

Expensive cards have been holding Legacy back online

These upfront costs create a major barrier to entry. One of the reasons Legacy thrives in paper is that many players were grandfathered in, acquiring their dual lands for $30 or less. But these Legacy enthusiasts are daunted by the prospects of acquiring the same deck online, and of spending so much money on a digital object, which “doesn’t even exist.” (Of course, there is value to many things that “don’t exist”—from bitcoins to audio files to your PayPal account...)

These two obstacles are not separate but intrinsically linked. A lack of card availability has impeded the growth of a health Legacy community on MTGO.

Vintage Masters could change the equation. The primary goal of Vintage Masters is to introduce the Power 9 online and establish Vintage as a full format on MTGO. That’s all well and good, but card availability will keep Vintage from taking off on MTGO. Most people will not want to play in sanctioned tournaments unless they can buy a fully competitive deck—which will probably mean $1,000 or more in power.

If a “budget” alternative without power emerges, the key pieces will spike in value as people flock to the deck. Lots of players will want a piece of Vintage, but few will stick with the major investment needed to build a Tier 1 deck. Those who don’t invest will get tired of losing to those who do.

Printed power has always been a good investment; if you treat it right you can pass it down to your kids (who will be able to sell it one day to buy a car.) But will virtual cards carry the same durable value, especially when there is no reprint policy?

I think they will retain value, but it takes a lot of cash and a leap of faith to buy in. Most people won’t. In the end, Vintage will be a fun format online, but will fire a lot more two-man queues that Daily Events.

Whither Legacy?

While Vintage won’t become a real format, the influx of cards from Vintage Masters may well push Legacy over the top.

There’s another driver at work: the exorbitant cost of Legacy in paper. Dual lands just doubled again, which means that buying into a cardboard Sneak and Show deck will cost you $3,600, BUG Delver will cost you $4,500, and even a budget deck like Death and Taxes now costs $1,800.

In the medium to long run, Legacy players will migrate online, which is the natural long-term home for the format. As the cost of decks rise, players will turn to Magic Online to test new decks. Most players won’t be able to jump between decks or builds without investing a lot of cash, but MTGO will provide a cheaper and more convenient alternative (each of the decks above costs about one third as much online.)

With no reserve list, Wizards has the ability to keep format prices in check (and a financial incentive to keep the format viable so that it can extract revenues from online reprints.) Wizards makes no direct income from secondary sales in paper Legacy, but can extract value from keeping the format alive online. WOTC doesn't really care about Legacy in paper, but has a direct financial stake in making Legacy a successful format online, because this will allow it to monetize it.

They're Coming...

There’s a lot of speculation about what will be reprinted in Vintage Masters, and my next article will take a stab at some predictions. What’s safe to assume is that a number of Legacy cards will enter circulation in the next six months.

That includes two of the big players that have already hit the Classifieds: Force of Will and Lion's Eye Diamond. The recent MOCS profile cut the price of LED by 70% and Force of Will by 30%. Moreover, they enfranchised a whole new set of players into Legacy.

If you have four Force of Will, you are not far from building a competitive Merfolk deck. If you have four Lion's Eye Diamond, you’re halfway to a Storm deck. If you have two Force of Will, you’ll want two more. In the perverse world of MTG economics, supply creates demand.

Fast forward a month. What happens when Rishadan Port and Wasteland hit the market, bringing Death and Taxes and Goblins within the reach of most players? There’s no guarantee that both will be reprinted, but I’d wager we’ll see at least one.

We don’t know what’s in Vintage Masters, but there are some good theories out there. I’ll cover them in my next article. I expect the set will contain many desirable Legacy staples that could not easily see a reprint in a future Modern Masters edition. WOTC wants to sell packs, and the Power 9 alone are not going to maximize their revenue. Which means a lot of Legacy staples are going to enter the market alongside the Vintage-specific cards.

Here’s what I think will happen. Vintage Masters will depress the prices of whatever Legacy staples are reprinted, but it will simultaneously stimulate demand for whichever Legacy staples are not reprinted. We’re going to see, on a massive scale, the LED effect.

The Buoyancy of LED

What, you ask, is the LED effect? When Lion's Eye Diamond was given out as a MOCS promo in March its price plummeted overnight. Mirage copies when from 150 tix to 80 tix in a flash, and the promo copies could be acquired for 50-60 tickets.

Simultaneously, almost every card played alongside LED saw a boost in price. Infernal Tutor rocketed 500% from 2 tix to 10 tix. Burning Wish gained 30% (10-14 tix), Chrome Mox gained 35%, etc.

These cards go together like peanut butter and chocolate.

The introduction of Lion's Eye Diamond promos led to a 500% growth in Infernal Tutor.
The introduction of Lion's Eye Diamond promos led to a 500% growth in Infernal Tutor.

In retrospect, the dynamic is clear: once you removed the bottleneck that was keeping people from building Legacy Storm and Dredge decks, people started moving in on those decks, stimulating demand for the other 71 cards. All of a sudden, people found themselves with four copies of a card that had previously been out of their range, and wanted to give them a spin.

Last year we saw a similar affect shortly after Force of Will was given as a MOCS promo in January 2013. In the wake of the reprint, you might have expected the Legacy index to go down. Instead, other Legacy cards rose appreciably as the format became more accessible and drew in new buyers. The forums were alight with people saying "Now I can finally buy into Legacy online." And they did:

Introduction of FoW in Jan 2013 led to a significant rise of in the Legacy index.
Introduction of FoW in Jan 2013 led to a significant rise of in the Legacy index.

There’s a good chance we’ll see this dynamic at play this summer. We already have the LED promos and the FoW promos. Both these cards could even see another reprint in VMA, though this seems increasingly unlikely to me.

But even under current conditions, the recent influx of new FoWs and LEDs, coupled with new cards in Vintage Masters (think Wasteland, Rishadan Port, Misdirection, Show and Tell, etc) is going to stimulate interest in Legacy, and prices of the other cards in those decks will rise.

What’s the Play?

Buy every Legacy staple that’s not reprinted in Vintage Masters. And if you have a hunch something won't be reprinted, don't wait for the official card list. Keep an eye on the forums as previews and spoilers emerge, which could happen any day now.

Am I willing to bet the farm on these predictions? Not yet. We are in uncharted territory, and player preferences are hard to predict. And they could decide to lay the groundwork for a “Legacy Masters’ down the line by not printing Legacy staples in Vintage Masters.

But the sure play is to acquire whatever Legacy staples are not spoiled as part of Vintage Masters as soon as the set list is out (if not sooner). Then I’ll be looking to pick up the ones that are reprinted during the Vintage Masters release events, when prices of the reprints will be at their low point.

VMA hits the online store in June, and we'll probably see first previews at Pro Tour Journey Into Nyx. Keep your tank full and your tires inflated. It’s going to be a wild ride.

-Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)

MODO Beta: Still Broken?

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Look, it's no secret that Magic Online has had its share of problems. In fact, it's had way more of them than most.

But that's all supposed to change. Wizards has been hard at work with a new client that should not only solve some of the major technical issues like crashing tournaments, but also make the game easier to access and a more enjoyable experience overall.

Right?

Well, maybe not.

Magic Online went into "wide beta" again this week with the new client. What that means is that the old client was temporarily disabled and everyone was forced to use the new one. The idea is that Wizards can get feedback from this process and find any of the few flaws left in the system and have them fixed by July, the date they want to officially launch it.

Turns out they have their work cut out for them.

I've been told this is the loading art for Magic Online... and it's a good fit.
I've been told this is the loading art for Magic Online... and it's a good fit.

Look, I'm not here to pile on about the issues Magic Online faces. Rather, I want to direct you to this post by Brian Kibler, where I think he does a very good (and fair) job of addressing those issues and what Wizards needs to do to fix them.

Let's hope someone's listening.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, Free, MTGO, MTGO Drafts3 Comments on MODO Beta: Still Broken?

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Vote With Your Wallet

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I haven't played Magic in a while because I prefer selling cards to keeping them in deck.

O RLY?

... I prefer selling cards to keeping them in 60 card decks.

I don't have a Modern deck built because I had such a good time selling my fetches at ridiculous prices that I don't really have the cards to maintain a deck. Luckily enough, tonight I managed to borrow an Affinity deck and 3-1 my FNM. No big deal. I played awkwardly, the deck pooped on me a few games and I had my fair share of "Oops, I win" moments, usually involving Arcbound Ravager.

So what got me out of my dimly-lit card dungeon where I list cards to sell on buylists every night and got me out to play cards and do some trading? My buddy Joey D who told me that tonight at FNM the format was Modern. I can get behind that. I'm 90% sure if he had told me it was Standard, I'd have stayed home.

How Often Does Your LGS Run Modern FNM?

Or 2-Headed Giant or Draft or Sealed or Legacy or what-have-you? If your shop isn't doing at least one FNM a month that is not Standard, I think they are doing it wrong. Is the turnout relatively small? Have them advertise all over the area and maybe the wacky format will bring some players in from other shops. Is the turnout usually large? Split it and run a pod of Standard and run a pod of the other event. I guarantee there will be enough interest. The other shops in the area can even stagger the "off" week so that it's at a different shop each week, allowing the store to maintain their core and get the extra traffic whenever they do an additional offering.

It can't hurt to suggest it, and if the store where you're playing is unreceptive to customer feedback, you can always do what I did and start going to a shop that listens. Not everyone has a Modern deck, but for those who do, it's a good environment to ease into the format. Have a spare deck to lend out in case a few people show up not knowing the format is Modern but still want to play. Getting your local metagame better at Magic by expanding their horizons helps everyone. You'll trade out a ton of Modern staples to people trying to finish their decks each time there is an event. This is good for the store, good for you as a trader and financier and good for the player base. I can't think of anyone it's bad for.

Run it by the owner if there isn't enough variety in the schedule. You don't even have to play- just go hang out and trade. I got better trades tonight than I do when there is Standard FNM and it can work for you, too. Your store owner is no idiot- if you let them know your group wants variety by expressing a willingness to vote with your wallets, they'll give the community what they want.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in FreeTagged 1 Comment on Vote With Your Wallet

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