Insider: The Planeswalkers of Theros

Posted on April 4, 2014January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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The next big event on the MTGO calendar will be the release of Journey Into Nyx (JOU). The addition of JOU into the market will have a few key impacts. Notably, the prices on boosters will be in flux as prize distribution gets shuffled around to account for the new set.

On top of this Standard will get a brand new look with the addition of the last scry lands and whatever other constructed-playable goodies are in the pipeline. In that regard, it's possible that JOU will be a stronger set than what we've seen recently.

With Dragon's Maze (DGM) and Born of the Gods (BNG) being the last two small expansions and both somewhat underpowered, we are just about due for an overpowered small set more in line with Worldwake or New Phyrexia. Regardless of what is spoiled though, we can anticipate a buying opportunity for cards from Theros (THS).

Set releases are always a good time to pick up constructed staples and other speculative cards as the MTGO economy tilts towards placing more value on tix. Combined with the fact that release events will be injecting new supply of THS cards into the market, that gives a strong impetus to be prepared with a few prospective buy targets.

Today I'm going to examine the case for speculating on the planeswalkers of THS. With about six months of pricing data, including the impact of BNG release events, the price history on each of these cards is established enough to do some analysis.

Elspeth

This 6cc planeswalker is the nominal hero of the block and has made a big impact on the THS Block Constructed format. According to the website mtgGoldfish, this card is the seventh most played card in block. This heavy use has contributed to steady price increases of late. Elspeth has even eclipsed the former highest priced card from THS, Stormbreath Dragon.

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Looking at the chart below, we can see that Elspeth found a price floor in December and January of around 10 tix. Since that time, it's largely been on an uptrend with a brief dip during BNG release events. This type of price activity is not unusual for one of the top cards from Block Constructed, as this format is quite widely played on MTGO.

After JOU is released, it's probable though not certain that Elspeth will continue to be one the the top cards in Block. Regardless of what happens in that format, the factor that could drive the biggest gains on this card will be Fall Standard.

In Standard, it's rare that a 6cc planeswalker makes a big impact. Due to the larger card pool, Standard decks have better mana bases and tighter mana curves. This often leaves 6cc cards on the outside looking in, although Elspeth does see some play currently, showing up as the 43rd most played card in Standard and the 25th most played spell.

If Elspeth got down closer to 10 tix during JOU release events, I would be tempted to buy at least a playset. However, 10 tix does not scream good value to me. I would avoid placing a big bet on this card due to the hefty mana cost. Although Block Constructed can give some insight into Fall Standard, in this case I'm not sure if Elspeth will be a safe bet to make the transition.

Ashiok

Unlike 6cc planeswalkers, a 3cc one like Ashiok has to be always in consideration for play due to being able to come online so early in a game. This card sees a small amount of Block play, coming in at 34th most played in that format. However, it is not ranked for usage in Standard, suggesting that this card has potential for future price increases if it sees greater uptake in that format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for ashiok, nightmare weaver

The chart illustrates the price history of the card. Similar to Elsepth, it found a floor in December and January (albeit at a lower level). The flood of supply from BNG release events knocked the floor down a notch, from 5.5 tix to 5.0 tix.

It's possible that JOU will knock it down even further, into the 4 to 5 tix range. At that price, this card is a snap buy if you are willing to hold for 10 to 12 months. It's got some constructed potential and probably won't go below 4 tix as long as it's in Standard.

Holding a long enough time line as a speculator allows the format to find its way to your card. It might never find its way to favoring Ashiok, but when you can buy a card at a low price, you won't need the format to shift very much in order to break even.

A strong push towards using this card in the Fall would push the price of this card into the 10 to 20 tix range. Buying this card during JOU release events will set you up for a possible windfall come the Fall.

Xenagos

This card is right behind Ashiok in terms of Block play, coming in at 35th most played card in Block. Also similar to Ashiok, this card is not ranked for frequency of play in Standard. It's also got a very similar chart, finding a price floor over the winter, followed by a slightly lower floor after BNG release events.

There was an error retrieving a chart for xenagos, the reveler

This card will probably see fringe play in Standard at the very least, supporting the R/G Monsters deck with an expanding supply of satyrs and the chance to set off monstrosities. A similar line of reasoning to Ashiok, this card is a snap buy in the 4 to 5 tix range as long as you are willing to hold for 10-12 months. Keep a long term perspective with the two lower-cc planeswalkers of THS and you are not going to be disappointed.

The last time to get these "on sale" will be coming up in May and June, so set aside a few tix to scoop them up on the cheap. Buying a mythic rare, at or near an established price floor, while a set is being opened heavily, is a surefire way to cut risk and to lay the groundwork for future gains.

Getting the Band Back Together

Posted on April 4, 2014April 4, 2014 by Jason Alt

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It didn't take very long at all.

Mere hours after the pictures of the new minor gods from Journey Into Nyx were spoiled, photoshoppers got to work making them look even more formidable.

As a former member of Team Simic, I'm glad someone did, frankly. Is there a reason Kruphix doesn't have a face? It's like he's made out of disappointment and flecked with thousands of torn foil Shamblesharks. Simic can be such a drag. Still, there is no reason to be pessmistic yet, and if his courser and prophet are any indication, he could make up for all of Gatecrash. Want to know how to make him seem even cooler?

Aww yiss. That's da good stuff, baby.

Still, one man and his keytar does not a good set make. If Journey Into Nyx is going to be good value at all, it will need a few more members.

Keyword ability "shred" confirmed for the next set.

Metal.

Why the one with hoop earrings gotta have a jambox? And a bass guitar?

Phenax might as well be on drums- once he hits play and you start tapping dudes, he establishes a clock like a metronome.

What is this, a ska band?

Ska band confirmed.

Journey Into Funk will be playing ten sold-out shows at amphitheaters all around the plane. Seats are selling out fast- their fans are pretty devoted.

Mana Flood – NSFW (If you work at a card shop)

Posted on April 3, 2014April 3, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Ever see something that makes you feel physically ill?

I made the mistake of going on the general Magic subreddit and I found something that made me wish I could unsee. A sump pump failure and improper box storage lead to a worst case scenario.

Someone got mana flooded.

The results are pretty horrifying

A few of the more cringe-inducing pics made me literally gasp audibly. This is an affront to all of our collections.

Water did this, and water is going to pay for it.

What about you? Got any horror stories of mass collection destruction? Leave it in the comments section.

Insider: Standard Deck Primer – Golgari Dredge

Posted on April 3, 2014January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

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Over the last few weeks, I have been dredging up old feelings for playing with intricate graveyard based strategies. A handful of years ago, utilizing the graveyard was one of my favorite ways to win games of Magic. Back then, the plethora of powerful tools for graveyard interaction did not exist in every metagame as they seem to these days. Powerful hoses like Rest in Peace lurk in the shadows of Standard waiting to prey on an unsuspecting opponent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for rest in peace

There was an error retrieving a chart for deathrite shaman

Luckily, the Standard graveyard deck, that has nothing to do with the Dredge mechanic, has not been noticed or taken seriously by the majority of the metagame. The data to support this claim is there in its absence. Count up the number of cards that interact with the graveyard in any given top 16 and you are likely to find a final tally of zero. Players believe that their strategies are so powerful that they need not worry about the graveyard shenanigans you are dredging up on your side of the table.

Their attitude may shift a little when you kill them from twenty in one hit.

Here’s how I’ve been rocking it.

GB Dredge
By Mike Lanigan

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic

3 Lotleth Troll

3 Sylvan Caryatid

4 Satyr Wayfinder

3 Herald of Torment

4 Nighthowler

2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord

3 Shadowborn Demon

4 Nemesis of Mortals

Spells

4 Grisly Salvage

4 Commune with the Gods

2 Ultimate Price

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb

9 Forest

7 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Mistcutter Hydra

3 Lifebane Zombie

3 Golgari Charm

2 Thoughtseize

2 Reaper of the Wilds

2 Pithing Needle

There are some adjustments you can make to the deck, but the core cards need to stay intact. Because you are trying to hit a critical threshold of creatures in your graveyard, all of the cards that enable that are essential to your success. Cutting one Commune with the Gods is a possibility, but other than that, the other cards are a necessity. As you may have noted, I squeezed in two copies of Ultimate Price as well as the third Shadowborn Demon into the main deck. These changes have proven disruptive enough to earn their place going forward. In a big tournament atmosphere where playing against Esper Control multiple rounds is likely, these cards may be more suited for the sideboard, but they are strong against the majority of the metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for shadowborn demon

There was an error retrieving a chart for jarad, golgari lich lord

The key component to strength in this metagame is resilience to removal. This deck accomplishes that goal through forcing your opponent to remove unimpressive threats like Elvish Mystic only to face down a second copy of a nearly identical creature. Nighthowler takes this archetype to the next level and wins you games you had no business winning. The majority of your opponent’s removal spells will prove ineffective but there are two that are problematic. Both Detention Sphere and Abrupt Decay can deal with your bestowed Nighthowler while all the rest of the removal spells can only deal with the creature bestowed upon. Even Detention Sphere suffers from being an enchantment though so forcing through damage for the win is still possible.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for abrupt decay

There are two different lines of play that happen frequently. These two patterns happen often enough that you can identify how the game is likely to play out based on your opening hand. Here are the two common scenarios.

Get Aggressive

In this situation, you are looking to cast a creature on turn two and start attacking. With this hand, Herald of Torment will serve as your initial creature. Once you have made it past turn two, you will be searching for a way to apply more pressure.

In this specific hand, I drew a Grisly Salvage on turn three so I was able to start the digging process with two of my enablers. From there I found Shadowborn Demon and a Nemesis of Mortals. Games you win like this usually involve a quick 5/5 or two. So, even though this hand started out with four lands which is not ideal, the Impulse-esque cards in this deck found the pieces to win the game.

Set Up for the Win

In this situation, you usually have Satyr Wayfinder and at least one other enabler. The goal is to use these search effects to position yourself to win the game. With this hand specifically, you are looking to fill your graveyard on turn two and three then follow up with a bestowed Nighthowler on turn four. These types of hands often don’t contain the Nighthowler, but honestly that’s the card you are digging for the majority of the time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for sylvan caryatid

There was an error retrieving a chart for satyr wayfinder

Every game is unique but with hands that involve Sylvan Caryatid, I almost always cast the mana fixer on turn two instead of one of the other two drops. There are a few reasons why you would want to lead with Caryatid. The first of which is so you can cast multiple two cost spells on turn three. This uses your mana in the most efficient way starts the gears of this deck turning as quick as possible. The second reason to sequence in this manner is because if you flip perfectly from an one of your sorceries, you can cast a Nemesis of Mortals that same turn. Once in a while you do actually flip five creatures, one of which is Nemesis. Playing your spells in this order gives you the best chance at your most powerful draws.

All-In Troll

This type of hand can pan out a couple of ways. First of all, you can always draw one of your powerful cards or more enablers that will shape your plays. However, many times with a hand of this structure, you are more likely to be all-in on Lotleth Troll. Your first couple draws can drastically change your sequence of plays, but almost always you should wait to cast your Lotleth Troll until you have three mana. With so many removal spells floating around in Standard, it’s essential to have regenerate mana available on the turn you cast him.

There was an error retrieving a chart for lotleth troll

There was an error retrieving a chart for grisly salvage

Many similar hands to this set up have less creatures so your Troll will be smaller. In these situations he is a great defensive tool. Games like this can be grindy, but being able to discard Jarad and then bring him back from the graveyard late in the game is a sweet finishing move. Your opponents are not prepared to play against a recurring threat like Jarad either and most of them don’t understand how much damage his sacrifice ability is capable of dealing. There are many opportunities to combo kill your opponent just by activating Jarad’s ability at the end of their turn, attacking on your turn, and then using his ability again. If the game goes long, this should be the game plan you are trying to set up.

Ship It!

Sometimes you need to take a trip down Mulligan’s Lane. This is a great example of a hand that seems OK but you don’t have the ability to get your Nemesis in play ahead of schedule and you can’t even cast Herald of Torment on turn two. Even if you could cast the efficient flyer on turn two, this deck is not set up like Mono Black Aggro and cannot close games by attacking with aggressive creatures. It is for this reason that hands without one of your search effects are hard to justify keeping.

There was an error retrieving a chart for tarmogoyf

There was an error retrieving a chart for craw wurm

Once in a while this hand will work out but that’s only because the top of your deck grants you with a Commune with the Gods to make those 5/5’s into Tarmogoyf instead of Craw Wurm. Another situation that can occur with any hand is Thoughtseize ripping it apart. If the opportunity and timing line up right, make sure you cast your Grisly Salvage in response to the discard spell because even though they could remove what you salvage, setting up your graveyard is still priority number one.

Wrapping up

Unless players start packing graveyard hate for this deck, it will continue to be a great choice for any event you are heading to. If there were a big Standard event on my calendar, I would be excited to Dredge up some wins. Sometimes it’s better to play your enablers first while others you’d be better served to get some creatures in play. Sculpt each game according to the array of spells at your disposal. Treating each game as a puzzle to solve is the best way to be successful with this deck or any like it.

Tournament Tips: Learn from your mistakes

For those of you new to my column, one feature I include from time to time is this section called Tournament Tips. I’ve been playing for thirteen years now and I’ve learned many things along the way. This is one way I will help you grow as players.

One of the most important aspects of your game is how much it’s growing. No matter how skilled you are or what level you are playing on, there is still room for growth. After an event, it is so important to assess your play and reflect on how you could have played better. There have been many events that I top 8’d that I identified multiple areas that needed worked on. In the same vein, there have been events like the recent GP Richmond, where I failed to succeed but was extremely proud of my tight play. Sometimes you get unlucky, but much of the time there are specific causes to your losses floating out there waiting to be identified. If you are striving to discover areas you can improve upon, you will improve.

Unleash the Dredging Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Rinse. Repeat.

Posted on April 3, 2014January 17, 2022 by Dylan Beckham

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I focus on a number of different things during my columns.

Again, for those just jumping on board - I believe the most important tool in Magic Finance is that space in between your ears. Forgetting the fact that even buying into one card can take an incredible amount of energy, there's those times where it's just simply hard to justify your time to not only yourself, but to your loved ones. Even the strangers you meet on the street can make it difficult for you to explain what it is we actually do.

Focusing on the mental side of Magic Finance also gives you the clarity to not only figure out what you are doing, how to move forward, and finding the appropriate exit strategy - it also gives you the ability to get other people on board. Getting your family and friends behind you, sharing that exuberance when you score that massive collection at a great price, and seeing the look of joy not only on your face, but on there's.....well, it can be a reward in and of itself, for everybody.

Often times, emotion is the true ruler of all that we do. Love a card too much?! ORDER 100 COPIES! What's the worst that can happen? How many times have you been there already? There's that little voice in the back of your head. It tells us too often to take a certain course of action.

"Stop. Go. Turn Right, No your other Right. GO FASTER! WAIT, you missed it! WAAAAAAAIIIITTTTTTTTT"

In truth, it doesn't even know the proper action to take. It just likes to sit there, gnawing at you with self-doubt and insecurity. Making the landscape before you seem to be a roiling mass of shifting sands.

I'm here to tell you that it gets better.

Repetition is the crux of all things. Familiarity breeds all confidence. If you know a thing, you can be a thing. You can also see it for what it is. Magic has cycles. There's patterns. There's only so much design space they can implement. As this game begins to get older - there will either be new space defined and broken in, or the rehash of old concepts. Making improvements as they go.

[cardimage cardname='Primalcrux'] [cardimage cardname='Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx']

Knowing a thing, we see that not only did Wizards try Chroma but later they tweaked it in order to bring us Devotion. They didn't get it right the first time. In fact, Chroma was pretty much irrelevant during the time it was Standard legal. There weren't enough cards to make a difference in what Chroma really wanted to do. A scaleable effect like that can also be intimidating on first try as it can quickly get out of hand if not tested properly. The balance has to be struck just so.

This applies across the board on Finance. Dealing with a buylist for the first time? Time, patience, and making sure you've analyzed the proper time to get out of a card are key. Maybe time is the issue? Make sure you bite off just enough to chew. If you bite off too much, you might put yourself in a worse position. It's easier to undo a small thing, than to undo a large thing. If it's too large - it could even invalidate your back up plans.

[cardimage cardname='Godless Shrine']

They brought these back for a double showing

We focus on buylists here at Quietspeculation for a number of reasons. I primarily look at it as this is the bottom line price I can get if time is a crunch. In essence though - all we do is: target, buy in, hold, execute exit strategy. Rinse. Repeat. This familiarity brings confidence to the cycle. Expectations rise and we want to have the same success from the previous time. If we haven't done this enough, let's say we make a mistake. The result we get isn't exactly as hoped for, much less expected. We beat ourselves up, and often people will question us why we do something they have no confidence in themselves. They don't know a thing. It's unsure. Untested to them. And now, you've shown the negative side. How do we keep on track?

By simply starting again.

We do the same thing over & over again - because they work. If you have fallen into a trap, and something just isn't working for you - break it down. Target. Buy-in. Hold. Execute Exit Strategy. You made a mistake somewhere along those lines. There's only four steps. Just take a good hard look at all of them. Did you target the right card?

[cardimage cardname='Thoughtseize'] [cardimage cardname='Duress']

One of these things is not like the other

Take the time to hone your game. Take the time to sharpen you. You're the key cog in this wheel of finance. Sometimes it's not all about the cards we speculate on. Sometimes it's also about the things we do, behind the scenes - that make all the difference in how we move forward, or how we should move forward. Find what works for you. Rinse. Repeat

-Till next Time

Insider: Buylisting 101 Tips

Posted on April 3, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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I know we spend a lot time talking advanced concepts on here, but I think it’s important that we go back to basics every once in a while. After all, not everyone is an old pro at this MTGFinance thing, so I find it pretty helpful to keep it simple every now and then. For those of us who have been at this for awhile, I still find it helpful to review these things myself from time to time.

So today we’re going to talk about buylists, the art of selling your cards to a dealer for money. Jason did a great piece on this topic last week, and I want to elaborate on how I handle some of these steps.

Let’s get the basics out of the way. Yes, you’re going to make less money than if you sold on TCGplayer or eBay. Yes, dealers are going to be more strict on condition. Yes, it sucks to see your cards go at lower prices.

Yes, you’re going to spend much less time buylisting. Yes, you’re going to make much less on TCGPlayer than you think you are. Yes, buylisting is easier than ever thanks to Trader Tools 3. Yes, buylisting typically offers the most reward for the least effort.

It’s really not that easy of a decision, is it?

What Works for You?

I say that with the utmost seriousness. Maybe you plan on selling enough cards on TCGPlayer that it becomes worth it for you. Maybe you don’t move enough cards at a time to really make shipping to a buylist worth it.

Hell, maybe you proxy every card you own with a sharpie so no dealer will accept them. I don’t know, but it can be true that buylisting isn’t always the best option.

But I’d wager that most of the time it is. Moving $200 dollars to a buylist in two hours using Trader Tools 3 is a hell of a lot more profitable than spending six hours to move $300 cards through TCGPlayer, at least for me. If you have enough free time that spending the extra hours is worth it, more power to you. But I know that for a lot of us this is a side hobby, so those hours are usually better spent at “real” work or with our families.

Choosing a List

We have some great stores in Trader Tools 3, and there are a lot of great stores out there that aren’t yet on our list. By shopping around and finding all the highest prices you can really start to increase your numbers.

But don’t spread yourself too thin.

This is a mistake I made several times when I started. I would sort a pile of cards into five different stacks only to find at the end that I’m paying $5 shipping on a $30 order when instead I could roll it into an already-existing pile for $27.

There’s a rule (that I can’t recall the name of) that states it’s better to find the point where time and money peak. In other words, you should find the point where the least amount of effort nets you the most return. Like I stated above, if you can spent an hour to get $75, is it really worth it to spend another two hours to dig out that last $25?

This is how I approach lists. Usually CardKingdom or one of the other top lists on Trader Tools is where I send my cards, because even if I can squeeze a few bucks out of another outlet, it’s not worth the extra time.

What to List

I apply the same rule here. A wise man once said “only buylist nickels if you hate yourself.” If you have 10,000 cards to sort through and you’re checking on every quarter card to find out if a buylist is paying a nickel, you’re going to start eating up time very quickly. It’s just not worth it.

In my earlier days, I used to limit myself at a dime. I’d pull every card I could that I thought might buylist for a dime. Something they did, sometimes they went for 15 cents and sometimes they weren’t worth anything at all.

The more I’ve done it, the more I’ve started to set my sights on things I might fetch a quarter on a buylist. All change adds up quickly, but I decided to set my own line a little higher.

It’s hard to say what’s right for you. It’s something you’ll find out after you’ve done it a few times, and it also depends on the size of the collection. Inputting a single Dimir Charm may not be worth your time, but if you come across a dozen sitting together it suddenly looks much better.

Moving up the chain, you also have to decide what to do with the expensive cards. I’ll buylist $5-10 cards all day, but if I come across an Underground Sea I’m probably going to find another outlet. The reason for this is that, even if the percentage of a buylist order for a Seas is the same as a Relic of Progenitus, the raw numbers reach a point where it is better to find a direct seller. Again, this is something that is different for anyone.

When to List

Remember that buylists drop before retail value does. So while we may not see the retail numbers on Standard staples like Sphinx's Revelation drop for a little while, buylists will always be ahead. And, just as rising buylist numbers indicate increasing demand, declining buylist numbers mean the opposite.

The time when this is most relevant is with Standard rotation. Retail values won’t really dip until the end of the summer, but buylist numbers will drop a month or two before that. That means, if conventional wisdom says to out your rotating Standard cards in September, the optimal time to buylist is likely in July and August.

Likewise, Modern cards typically reach peak buylist numbers near the beginning of PTQ season, even if retail prices don’t peak until the middle of the season. If you plan on buylisting those Modern specs, that’s the best time to do so.

Shipping the List

Everyone has their own tricks for doing this, and I typically work like this:

Use fatpack boxes or 1000 count boxes to sort cards.
I don’t want cards to shift. At all. The delivery process is rough on your box, and you don’t want the cargo to be damaged. Something like bubble wrap is optimal, but I’ve definitely used paper towels to pack the contents in a box before tightly taping it up. If I can shake the box and hear no movement inside, I know I’ve done a good job.
I ship in padded envelopes with tracking and insurance. While this whole process may be slightly more expensive than other methods like flat-rate boxes (particularly good if you have a ton of cards to ship), it does guarantee everything arrives where it’s supposed to in the best condition possible.

One more tip: Always take a check if possible. Many stores will offer you the choice between a check or a Paypal payment. The small percentage fee they charge for using Paypal may not seem like a big deal on a $100 order, but by the time you scale up to $1,000 it starts to become quite relevant. Just take the check and wait a few more days for your money to come in.

Exhausting Ourselves

Between Jason and I, I feel like we’ve covered this topic pretty well in the past week, so I imagine it will be a while before we revisit it. So if you have any questions just let me know in the comments and I’ll be sure to answer!

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Planeswalker Finance

Posted on April 3, 2014January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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My project over the last few weeks has been building a cube. I don’t know that it’s particularly tuned yet, but if you’re interested in seeing it for some reason, you can find it on Cube Tutor here. For now, it’s just an assortment of sweet cards that I already owned or was able to cheaply and/or easily acquire, but I have big plans for this cube’s future.

Before I get into today’s topic, I do want to discuss briefly the benefits of having a pet project. As a Limited-focused player, sometimes I don’t have a long want list—in fact, sometimes it has nothing on it at all. Of course, I can approach trades and purchases with the idea of make as much money as possible, but that’s so open-ended that it can often be overwhelming.

On the other hand, I’ve had some of my best trade experiences when I was actively looking to put together a certain deck, cube, playset, etc. I can still set a general goal of buying low and selling high (and I do), but having a specific objective makes the trading experience more fulfilling than just seeing every card in terms of dollars and cents.

Planeswalkers and MTG Finance

As I’ve been putting together my cube, I’ve been prioritizing including a bunch of sweet planeswalkers. Planeswalkers are interesting from an MTG finance perspective because they haven’t been around for very long, at least in a relative sense. Largely because of a certain blue planeswalker in Magic’s history, all subsequent ‘walkers preorder in the $30 range before eventually falling to a more sane price based on actual factors. But as I’ve browsed websites and trade binders for older ‘walkers, I have found that some are surprisingly expensive and others are relatively cheap. In the process of building this cube, I’ve identified some targets for long-term growth (which, by the way, is another benefit of having a pet project. Not only does it guide your trading, but it forces you to notice cards you might otherwise overlook). I’ve also noted some precedents, and we’ll be going through those first.

Eternal Planeswalkers

Very few planeswalkers have earned the title of “staple” in eternal formats, but when they do, their price tags tend to reflect it in a big way. The best example of this is the ridiculous blue planeswalker I alluded to earlier, Jace, the Mind Sculptor. It’s a Legacy staple in the purest sense, and if it weren’t banned in Modern, who knows how high the price would be? As it is, Jace is one of the most expensive cards printed in the last ten years, and for good reason—it’s basically Modern power.

[cardimage cardname='Jace, the Mind Sculptor']

Somewhat more recently, we have Liliana of the Veil and Karn Liberated. These are both obviously powerful cards that never saw an extremely low floor, although both were available at less than a third of their current prices.

Liliana and Karn have followed similar trajectories, bottoming out while still in Standard, then seeing their first big jumps during Modern PTQ season in the first quarter of 2013. The duo spiked again during the Modern mania of the last several months. Both are staples in Modern, and Liliana also sees play in Legacy.

Just seeing a little play in Modern can cause a substantial increase:

Between its set printing, promos, and duel deck, Ajani Vengeant has been printed approximately 700 times, and yet a little fringe play in Modern Ajundi saw the card double overnight, where it’s stayed since. And I reiterate: this has been printed as much or more than any other planeswalker. Ajundi has fallen out of favor, but the card still sees play in UWR Control variants. It appears to be on an upswing even now, and who knows where it could end up if it reaches true staple status? Liliana and Karn do, that’s who (though just to be clear, its multicolor status and multiple printings almost certainly make its ceiling significantly lower, even if there is still room to grow).

Casual Planeswalkers

Not a lot of planeswalkers are played in eternal formats. The bar is high there, and planeswalkers tend to be designed to be powerful in Standard but not overwhelming in eternal play. But that doesn’t keep them from being demanded by casual players. Check out the trajectory on all of these planeswalkers with no eternal competitive resumes:

All these planeswalkers have a few things in common: they don’t see competitive play, they all dropped sharply when rotating out of Standard, and they all have grown gradually since. Some of these are pretty underpowered as far as planeswalkers grow, and yet they have all grown at a steady rate. Slow, sure, but the trajectory is obvious. Many of these have multiple printings, too, so it doesn’t appear that a reprint completely kills this tendency. Seeing this, I’m inclined to trade my rotating Standard cards for planeswalkers of all shapes and sizes—it seems like a safe place to park resources.

These Planeswalkers Floor Me

Alright, so what planeswalkers are ripe for the picking? Let’s take a look:

Chandra, the Firebrand has a couple printings and never saw much competitive play, but $3.74 seems like the flooriest of floors for a planeswalker. This card isn’t necessarily bad, either—that -2 ability is good in more than just your standard mono-red fare. I doubt it will ever see any eternal play, but seems like a likely candidate to hit $8 to $10 over the next few years.

Garruk, Primal Hunter is such an awesome card. Like the Firebrand, Primal Hunter has a couple printings, but it’s proved to be extremely powerful. The five CMC may price it out of eternal formats in general, but this could see a decent spike just by being reprinted into Standard again. Sans reprint, I think this will be a fan favorite for casual players and could climb to as high as $15 to $20 in the long-term. His -3 ability scales with the format, so this card is just as good in EDH as it is in Cube as it is in Standard.

I seem to recall Garruk Relentless seeing fringe (with emphasis) play in Legacy at some point, though the fact that I can’t point to the deck or event makes this evidence anecdotal, at best. Still, this is the only double-faced planeswalker ever printed, is a popular character, has only a single printing, and is relatively powerful. I’d be surprised if this dipped further before beginning its steady ascent to double digits.

Gideon Jura is one of the most powerful planeswalkers ever printed, but it’s kind of garbage in EDH and thus doesn’t have the casual backing to keep its price high. This represents opportunity, in my opinion. Its mana cost of five certainly makes it a stretch to see consistent play in Modern, but in the right metagame and in the right control variant, this could be a powerhouse. If this card leads someone into a top eight, do you really think it won’t be the top interest on MTG Stocks the next day? The only thing to keep the price at least somewhat under control will be its two printings.

A duel deck printing killed Koth of the Hammer’s price during its time in Standard, and the card has never really recovered. This is another case of a card being very powerful in 60-card, 20-life play but not being so hot in EDH. Eternal red decks tend to want a low curve, but Koth is undeniably powerful in the mono-red archetype. It’s Cube staple status probably won’t double the price overnight, but this looks like a floor. I can only see this one growing, even it’s slow.

Ral Zarek is iffy. It’s the highest priced of any I’ve listed for potential pickup, it has no competitive achievements, and it’s still in Standard. On the other hand, casual players love the long-awaited character, Izzet is a popular color combination, and Dragon’s Maze doesn’t have much value (so something has to pick up the slack). I’m not going to call this an acquisition target just yet, but it’s one to keep an eye on.

And finally, we come to Sorin, Lord of Innistrad. Corbin called this on the Brainstorm Brewery cast a while back, and while it hasn’t seen any growth just yet, I still like the call. Like always, the duel deck printing didn’t do wonders for Sorin’s price, but I still think this is the floor. Sorin is an interesting spot in that it could be a slow-growing casual card, but I could also see it finding a home in a Modern black-white tokens deck and hitting big overnight. That seems like a pretty good dichotomy for a pickup target, so I’ll be keeping an eye out for copies.

Perspective

To put this all in perspective, let me point out what we all know: planeswalkers are cool. They’re ridiculous in Limited and something different to do in Constructed. A game of Magic with a planeswalker in play is just different than one without. When a ‘walker sees Constructed play, it’s usually for an effect that is hard to replicate, meaning there are few adequate replacements. Casual players recognize the awesomeness of planeswalkers, too. Players in general just like them, and their price histories reflect that. I think they’re relatively safe, solid investments, and I’ll be looking to grow my cheaply-acquired planeswalker holdings moving forward.

Have an addition or rebuttal? Please share in the comments!

Just like Obama

Posted on April 2, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Maybe not in the way you're thinking, I can't dunk a basketball or win an election, but Obama started out as a community organizer, and that's a role we can all benefit from emulating.

I am getting really pumped for GenCon because I plan to play Star Realms as much as possible. For those who tune out when I prattle on about it, Star Realms in a deckbuilding card game designed by Magic Hall of Fame members Rob Daugherty and Darwin Kastle. I was a Kickstarter backer and promoted the game a heck of a lot. Now that the closed Beta for the electronic version of the game is going full swing and I can play against others on the internet, including mr Kastle himself, I am playing non-stop.

When my LGS owner posted on facebook that he had a lot of the game sets in stock, I got a brilliant idea- why not organize a tournament in the store? Lowish buy-in to encourage non-players to pick the game up, a discount on entry if you buy or bring a copy of the game to use in the event, some of my kickstarter rewards as prizes- the whole idea formed almost instantly. The store owner is super on board and now we're looking at a calendar to pick a good date for the event.

All of which lead me to ask myself- when was the last time I did something like that for Magic?

And how hard would it be? My LGS would be just as inclined to let me organize 2 Headed Giant Sealed, you know, the format whose passing I lament every opportunity I'm given. He'd let me set up infi proxy Vintage or Legacy or a weeknight just for funsies cube draft. I could even invite people over to my house to jam a draft. I haven't done anything like that in forever.

I talk a lot about the need to assimilate with different groups to have a larger client base and to get yourself in a situation where there is money to be made shipping cards between the groups. But I am finding myself relying on others for setting up EDH night and I mostly stick to the store event schedule. Organizing stuff is a good way to get yourself more widely known in your community and that can't be a bad thing. It's all a matter of bothering to do it. I've mae plenty of selling opportunities just by asking, maybe it's time to give something back.

Especially if that thing is 2 Headed Giant.

I just have two questions for you - first, what is your current favorite non-Magic game, why is it Hearthstone, and how do I convince you to make it not Hearthstone?

Second, what are you going to do to give back to your community?

Insider: Evaluating EDH Cards

Posted on April 2, 2014January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back readers and speculators! Today's article is on a subject near and dear to me. As a diehard EDH (or Commander) enthusiast, the second thing (after Legacy playability) that pops into my head when skimming over spoilers is "does this card belong in EDH?"

I often here the competitive Standard players discussing cards and just assuming any card with a high converted mana cost is clearly an "EDH" card. Every time I hear this, I know...this person is not an EDH player.

While we are usually not the cutthroat players who feel that winning is the reason to play the game, we casuals love a nice long game of back and forth, hay-makers thrown and bombs defused. The best game doesn't require me standing triumphant on top of my vanquished foes, it involves one where everyone had a good time and nobody left sulking (sure these games happen, but they usually involve mana screw/flood).

That being the case there are certain factors that are good indicators of EDH playability. So here's a nice list of said factors, along with the reasons behind them.

1) Does this card tutor?

Tutors are rampant in EDH. Whether they get lands or spells, it's almost impossible to play a game in which someone doesn't tutor something up. The reason is simple; players build their decks knowing that with only one legal copy of a card (other than basic lands) they either need to play lots of similar cards or have ways to find the specific card they need.

The more powerful EDH decks tend to do both, which is why tutors tend to be the backbone of a lot of EDH decks, especially combo-oriented ones. That being said, just because a card can tutor something up doesn't guarantee it has a home in EDH (see Gamble or Signal the Clans)...yet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gamble

There was an error retrieving a chart for Signal the Clans

However, it does usually mean there is a higher probability that this card will make it into EDH. After all, there's a reason that Worldly Tutor is worth five bucks...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Worldly Tutor

...and Sylvan Tutor is worth 21 (hint--it's not Legacy).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Tutor

2) Does this card provide card advantage?

This one is huge because EDH decks vary so greatly and because it's a multiplayer format, card advantage is critical. It's difficult to win one-for-oneing multiple players. Eventually you run out of answers.

I break card advantage in EDH into a few categories:

a) Wrath effects - named for good ol' Wrath of God, these effects destroy multiple permanents in one fell swoop. They allow you to trade one card for one card (and usually many more) from each opponent. They are usually in white or black (though red has mass damage spells which often act the same way).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wrath of God

b) Card Draw - the most obvious form of card advantage is the one that lets you draw more cards than your opponents. These are your Blue Sun's Zeniths, Consecrated Sphinxs, or any other spell that allows you to draw extra cards while your opponent isn't. This can also be tacked onto a creature (for example Azumi, Lady of Scrolls or Archivist) or in the form of an enchantment (á là Phyrexian Arena)

c) "187" Creatures - or creatures with an enters the battlefield ability (187 was originally used to describe Nekrataal and is the police code for homicide...that's your fun fact of the day). These creatures give you a "spell" that leaves behind a creature and allow for abuse when they re-enter the battlefield (via blink, reanimation, bounce, etc).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nekrataal

d) Recursion abilities - These are abilities slapped onto creatures, enchantments, artifacts that allow you to reuse stuff you already have, whether they are reanimation (Kardor, Ghost Chieften), flashback (Snapcaster Mage), rebound (Cast Through Time), or something else. These abilities allow you to use your graveyard as a resource, which has shown in multiple formats to be a solid strategy.

e) Scalability - These cards are ones that scale with the number of players. The primordial cycle from Gatecrash is a prime example. They are barely okay at their existing mana cost in a one-vs-one game, but the fact that they scale with the number of players means that big 5-8 player games they can be absolutely devastating.

The recently banned Sylvan Primordial is a prime example. If it destroyed one permanent it would be just another Woodfall Primus, but the fact that it can destroy lots of permanents and fetch multiple lands made the caster just way ahead of everyone else. The fact that it was slapped on as an ETB trigger meant blinking/bouncing/recurring them was just that much more ridiculous.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Woodfall Primus

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Primordial

f) Planeswalkers - These guys are their own form of card advantage. As long as they are alive they allow the owner to activate one of several spell-like abilities for no mana. Most planeswalkers can find a home in EDH due to this fact. It helps that because of EDH's higher average converted mana costs, the "overcosted" Standard planeswalkers tend to be the preferred ones in EDH.

g) Extra Turns - While not as obvious at first, extra turn spells are often favored by combo players, much to the disdain of many of us casual players. They not only replace themselves, but give the caster the rest of the turn to play another land, attack, untap, etc. The decks that play these effects tend to play multiples (it's rarely just in there), so any new cards that provide extra turns (and are blue) are likely to find a home in these combo-style EDH decks.

3) Does this card win the game?

I actually don't mean can this win the game, but I'm referring to cards that specifically have "win the game" clauses, such as Felidar Sovereign, Epic Struggle, Helix Pinnacle, etc. The abnormal requirement on these cards can more easily be obtained in a slower format and in decks built with them in mind. They are rarely the actual focus on the deck though tend to have synergy with the deck's other cards (Felidar Sovereign for example is played in a lot of mono-white life gain decks).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Felidar Sovereign

4) Does this card form an infinite combo with another card?

While this factor may or may not prove a card's viability for Legacy or Modern as well, there are many competitive EDH players and these guys love their infinite combos. Though the more cards required the less likely the card is to see play, hence why two-card combos are far more likely to show up. When you have a 100 card deck and only one of each card the difficulty to assemble more complex combos scales exponentially.

So hopefully you can use these factors when speculating on potential EDH cards in the future as opposed to defaulting to "high converted mana cost" or "big creature". Just because a card doesn't look to have any hope in Standard or other eternal formats doesn't make it an EDH card.

Pros and Cons of Young Pyromancer in Boros Burn

Posted on April 2, 2014April 2, 2014 by Ryan Overturf

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You can accredit it to the fact that red mages are going to play red in every format, or you can choose to believe that Boros Burn is a very real deck. Whichever you choose, you can't deny the deck's popularity. Two of the Charlotte Invitational top 8 competitors piloted Burn as their Standard weapon of choice on this side of the globe while the deck took three slots in the top 8 of GP Beijing. You can ignore it if you like, but Yuuya Watanabe and Shuhei Nakamura sure didn't.

[cardimage cardname='Staff of the Death Magus']

I'm not going to say that I saw this one coming, though there is some precedent. I've seen plenty of Dragon's Claws in sideboards during my Magic career. It is a bit odd considering that Black Devotion already has a handful of trumps in Duress, Gray Merchant of Asphodel and Desecration Demon, but sometimes you just really want to shore up a matchup.

But I'm not here to talk about how to beat Burn. As a proponent of the deck, I'm much more interested in how to win with the deck. Sherwin Pu's deck offers an intriguing angle in maindecking Toil // Trouble and the full set of Blood Crypt. This move probably makes your control and midrange matchups extremely favorable, and I could definitely get behind it. With Chandra's Phoenix as the only creature the deck can ignore most removal spells and be completely focused on racing. It looks like a quality strategy, but it's not exactly my style. The biggest difference between my list and any of the recent successful lists is this guy:

[cardimage cardname='Young Pyromancer']

I've been on Young Pyromancer since Born of the Gods was released, and I've only ever boarded it out against Jace, Architect of Thought decks, so it's strange to me that none of the successful lists I've seen have included the card. I don't have enough time to test Pu's list before this weekend, but I feel that in the straight Boros version excluding Pyromancer is a mistake. Today I'd like to breakdown what the card adds and detracts from the deck to see if you agree.

Cons

He Biases You Toward an Extra Land

Current Burn decks tend to play 23 or 24 lands. Considering that the deck has to play Shock, most players opt for 23. Young Pyromancer generally just dies without generating value when he's cast without the ability to make a token on the same turn- this is the reason that every deck that tried him in Legacy and Modern played Gitaxian Probe. Barring the aforementioned Shock, this play is only achievable with four mana available. I've played him with 23 lands, but the more matches I get in the more I believe that 24 is correct.

He Biases You Toward the Fourth Shock

The only card that I've seen trimmed frequently is the fourth Shock, and Young Pyromancer doesn't approve. Once you have a Pyromancer in play you just want to cast as many spells as possible. Shock enables you to make a token as early as turn three and will allow you to make more tokens than your other spells on later turns due to its efficiency. The extra land and the Shock end up bringing the average damage of a given card in the deck down, which is often taboo in Burn decks.

He Doesn't Have Haste

Every non-Satyr creature appearing in the successful lists has haste. Obviously haste is better than not haste, and this is particularly relevant against UWx decks and Black Devotion where you need to be getting in damage while they're tapped out. There will be times when a Chandra's Phoenix off the top will be amazing and Young Pyromancer will be awful.

He's Bad Against Jace

A 2/1 without haste that makes 1/1s is pretty abysmal when your entire team loses a point of power. Combine this with maindeck Searing Blood and Chained to the Rocks and you can see how lists with Pyromancers will struggle more pre-board against Jace decks than those without.

That's a sizable list of cons, and as such I can see where you'd exclude the card to perform better against Jace decks. That said, I obviously believe that the upside is higher, so let's talk about that.

Pros

He Makes Your Spells Better

I know, I know. Duh. But this goes a little deeper than just saying that your spells would be better if they made 1/1 tokens for free. When you're on blocking duty the token functionally adds an extra point of damage to your burn spells when targeting an attacking creature. It feels particularly good to Searing Blood a three-toughness creature and then block with the fresh token.

The spell with the most varied mileage in the Young Pyromancer version is Boros Charm. Making your permanents indestructible against removal and netting an extra body is pretty good, but things can just get nutty when Boros Charm is used as a defensive combat trick. Making a couple guys then blocking with a team that won't die has won me a handful of games- particularly against Naya Hexproof where your removal spells don't really work.

He Overwhelms Sylvan Caryatid

Sylvan Caryatid is arguably the most problematic card for Burn out of Jund Monsters due to its ability to block Mutavault and Ash Zealot while being unkillable. Young Pyromancer, on the other hand, completely takes advantage of Caryatid's drawback of having zero power by generating a swarm of creatures to attack attack every turn while also never dying.

He Goes Toe to Toe with Master of Waves and Desecration Demon

Now we're really talking. If your opponent controls a Desecration Demon and for whatever reason can't kill your Young Pyromancer you'll be able to tap down the demon more often than not. Alternatively, if they do kill it you can usually make one or two tokens and buy a little time.

Blue Devotion doesn't have much in the way of things that kill Young Pyromancer though, and unless they have two copies you'll often be able to stare at their 2/1s with your 1/1s while you kill them to death with burn spells.

He Makes Your Aggro Matchups Dramatically Better

There are a lot of X/1s to trade elemental tokens with in Standard right now. There's also the fact that most of your burn spells will have to target creatures against aggressive decks, so netting a 1/1 and being able to race will help immensely. Some would say that Satyr Firedancer accomplishes this end, but I defy you to have your Satyr die in response to your burn spell even once and still want to play with it. Even when he dies, Pyromancer still generates value. He's also going to be better with your sideboard Mizzium Mortars than Firedancer, so there's that.

Conclusion

What it all boils down to is that Pyromancer will make you worse against UWx, be kind of a wash against Black Devotion and will make you better against everything else. I can see why you might eschew the card at a tournament like last weekend's Invitational considering that it was known that a lot of players would be packing Esper, but more generally I'm inclined to play the list that's better in more matchups. Sometimes you play against the wrong deck too many times in a row when you throw away percentages in a specific matchup, but then sometimes you run good. Or, you know, at expectancy.

I could see myself trying out Blood Crypts, but for now I'll be Pyromancing.

Thanks for reading.
-Ryan Overturf

Which Side Are You On?

Posted on April 1, 2014 by Jason Alt

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They say great minds think alike. I don't know whether that's true, but there is a tendency for things I like to appear in multiple different venues and that makes me happy.

One of my favorite threads in the Quiet Speculation Insider Forum is the "Rate My Trade" thread. People post a trade they made and the Insiders chime in and tell them how they did. I liked that idea a lot, and listeners to Brainstorm Brewery started sending in trades they had done but with the caveat that they do not tell us on which side of the trade they were in an attempt not to bias us. The cast members talked about which side of the trade they preferred, and sometimes the answers were split if the trade was close. Personal trade philosophy informed the decision and sort of challenged the notion of inherent value. All in all it was a fun exercise and the "blind" twist on it made it more compelling if you ask me.

We haven't done that on the podcast in a while, and not everyone is a Quiet Speculation Insider (yet!), but if you want to get your fix, Reddit is continuing their "imitation is the sincerest form of flattery" trend and doing their own trade thread every week.

Here it is

To the extent that something that has only happened one time can be considered weekly, the Magic Finance subreddit is going to be doing a weekly trade thread. Chime in and let them know how you think they did. Propose your own question. Encourage them to post their trades "blind" so you can decide which side truly won.

Insider: Saving Time By Spending It

Posted on April 1, 2014January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Speculators!

You like the new digs? It finally happened--I'm writing on Insider. It's been a long, eventful journey from rookie free-sider bringing you cupcake pictures from Reddit to becoming a finance writer that the community reads and respe... reads. A finance writer that the community reads.

I am going to be starting a series here on Insider. My contribution to the free side will continue, but “Jason's Alticle” as it existed is no more. The series has evolved and come a long way since its inception and I thank everyone for their support and suggestions which helped shape the series. I'm going to miss writing it, but I still get to contribute to the free side, only now it will be a daily thing. It's all pretty exciting and I'm glad to continue to evolve here at Quiet Speculation.

If you're a long-time reader of my column on the free side, you may be wondering whether the Insider side is the appropriate venue for me. You're correct to be concerned, but not to worry. We've decided that my writing on Insider is going to focus on an aspect of Magic finance that gets glossed over a bit–the 90% of Magic finance that doesn't involve speculation.

Glossed Over?

I think so, yes. Don't get me wrong--there have been some exceptional articles, both on Quiet Speculation and elsewhere, that deal with the day-to-day, “grindy” aspects of Magic finance. However, those articles tend to be the exception rather than the rule. I aim to make the grind my focus. Is that a good name for an article series? “The Grind”? I don't know--that might make people think it's going to be a grind to read. I'm not here to bore anyone, I'm here to help you maximize your profit by increasing your efficiency and help you pull treasure from trash.

My Goals

My plan for this series of articles is as follows.

Discuss techniques for increasing efficiency
Discuss opportunities you can make for yourself
Discuss mistakes I've learned from

I'm sure a lot more than that is going to happen, so I hope you'll join me. It should be a wild ride.

I am going to close out this introductory article by making the case for doing something that is terrible, no fun, time-consuming and arduous because I think it actually saves time in the long run.

Why You Should Set Sort and Alphabetize Before You Buylist

I feel like I just heard the sound of 1,000 browser windows all slamming shut at once. Yes, today is April Fool's Day. No I am not screwing with you. Despite set sorting and alphabetizing being incredibly time-consuming and sounding like about as much fun as a “just because” colonoscopy, I assure you that it will save you time, and ultimately lead to faster and smoother buylisting transactions.

I can sense your skepticism, but bear with me. There is one point in what I consider a three step process where set sorting and alphabetizing will make a small difference and two points where it will make a gigantic difference. If your order is over $200 I can virtually guarantee the time that you spend in this extra sorting step will be more than made up later.

In order to make a compelling case, let's first go over what these three steps of the process are.

Inputting the cards into the buylist interface
Verifying that you have all the correct cards
Packaging the cards and mailing them

That is my estimation of the process. Those are the three points at which the order in which you have your cards organized matters. Having your cards in the “correct” order at all three of those points will save you a lot of time and trouble, and I think explaining what each of those steps entails will give you a better picture of why set-sorted and alphabetized is the “correct” order.

Inputting Cards Into the Buylist Interface

I personally buylist using Trader Tools but before that was a possibility, I used to sell to ABU games, Troll and Toad (back when they had the hotlist) and Card Kingdom mostly, although I also used bidwicket.com and that had me shipping to quite a few other dealers.

For the purposes of using bidwicket, each card had to be typed in manually. You would input the card name, select the correct item from a menu of similar items, and scroll down to see which dealer was paying the best. You could add the card to a bidwicket cart and then check out with each individual store later.

It was time-consuming but less so than checking five different buylists to see who paid the best. Before I used bidwicket I used to ship almost exclusively to one dealer who paid the best on average, which wasn't the most efficient way to get paid.

Whether you're using Bidwicket or Trader Tools or just good, old-fashioned hitting up a dealer's website, it probably doesn't seem like you need to sort at all for this step. In fact, when I first started buylisting, I didn't. I would take a big pile of cards and just go to town. While it shouldn't matter for a site like bidwicket since you have to type each card in individually, I quickly realize why it was a good idea to have the cards sorted for this step. This occurred to me the first time I had to type in the name of a card a second time.

This kind of redundant work was a gigantic waste of time. Any time I might have saved by not sorting beforehand quickly evaporated since each card I had to retype in added up. Worse still, the box I put the cards for sale into had to be sorted later since a card I typed in twice was in two different places in the box.

I solved this by sorting by color so I at least could go through a smaller pile looking for cards that were the same so I wouldn't have to type them in twice. This time added up, too, and I quickly began to subscribe to the Mike Ehrmatraut school of thought.

Since I was doing a lot of sorting anyway and it wasn't super efficient, I quickly realized the need for a more comprehensive pre-sort.

Another caveat is that having the cards set-sorted and alphabetized saved an insane amount of time when using the website of buyers like Card Kingdom. Card Kingdom's buylist interface allows you to select a set and it will bring up an interactive list of each card from that set they were buying. All you need do is put in the quantity in the box next to the card. You can get through a stack in a fraction of the time and since you don't have to keep jumping between sets, the process is over so quickly you will make up any time that you may have invested in a sort.

Verifying You Have the Correct Cards

If you're using Bidwicket or Trader Tools, one comprehensive list of cards is split among all of the individual buyers you will be mailing cards to. At this point, you will need to verify that you have all of the cards that you are sending to each dealer and verify that they are in the right pile. You will be given a list from each dealer, either in the form of a confirmation screen or confirmation e-mail. The order in that list? Set-sorted and alphabetized.

If your cards are already in that order, and if you put the sets in a logical order when you sorted, you will find that the cards are in that order already by virtue of having gone into the box in that order. I know that when I use Trader Tools, sometimes the dealer paying the most can change between the time I add all the cards to the list and the time I check out. I have three boxes, one for each dealer, and I put the cards into the box for the dealer paying the most when I make the list, but if that changes by the time I check out, knowing all three boxes have cards that are sorted in the most indexable manner possible means I can quickly find a card if it's not in the correct box.

Making sure the cards are in the order specified by the confirmation e-mail or page really helps with the next step.

Packaging the Cards and Mailing Them

Buyers will require that you ship the cards in the exact order specified by the confirmation e-mail or page. This allows them to quickly verify that you sent the exact order that they offered to pay for. If you make their lives hard, they may dock you money or send the order back.

They may not do any of that, but you certainly won't make friends, and you want to make friends. Friends take it easy on you when they grade the cards you send them. Friends make sure they pay what they offered in the e-mail and don't knock any money off for anything silly. Friends make sure you order gets processed and you get paid quickly.

If the cards are already in the correct order, the process of packaging is simple. Since I organize the cards in 1,000 count boxes when I am compiling the orders, I simply close up those boxes and put them in USPS flat rate boxes. Since I already checked that the cards were in order, I don't need to do a secondary verification, but if I did, it would be very quick. This is another step in the process where you can save time by sorting beforehand.

Piling On

Whenever I get a new collection in, the first thing I do now is strip out everything big and flashy and obvious that I won't be buylisting. I still retail sale a significant number of cards, and I have taken to raiding collections for stuff to jam in my EDH decks. I get high from my own supply, but having a column about EDH has been enough justification for me to rationalize pilfering cards that I should be selling.

After that, I set-sort and alphabetize everything. The benefit of having done that for previous collections is that I have the boxes all set up and I can just jam the new cards into those boxes. If I get cards identical to cards I've already buylisted, it's no big deal, but if I get cards I haven't buylisted yet, I know I've saved myself having to type those card names in twice and that ultimately saves time.

One Drawback

The only drawback to this method is that this can cost a bit of extra time when using Trader Tools. If you buy a collection with 200 copies of Counterspell and you put them all together, when you go into Trader Tools and type “Counterspell” it will bring up a list of every edition and you can put the quantities in the boxes and be done with Counterspell forever. If you have them set-sorted, each time you come across a Counterspell you will have to type it in again.

This wastes time in the first step of the process, but since it saves time in the other two, I think it's a wash, and this method saves so much time for every other scenario that this one corner case doesn't deter me much.

One quick tip--I make four piles on my first pass through. White-bordered cards in one, cards older than Revised in another, modern-bordered cards in another pile and old-bordered cards in the last pile. I set sort from there. I hope this helps!

Insider: [MTGO] Finding Dormant Gems in Modern

Posted on April 1, 2014January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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Let me try my hand at my very first self-made English riddle:

Q: What do prices of Modern cards and the universe have in common?

A: They are both in expansion and seem to have no limits.

Although the Modern Index is dipping a little bit these days, as it does now and then, this two-year-old format is still fully rising, and some format staples got really big this year.

Months are passing by and Modern looks like an inexhaustible gold mine from a speculative perspective. Even with the release of Modern Masters, format staples seem to be totally ignoring the notion of ceiling, and long-forgotten cards jump from pure junk to "the next big" thing in hours.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for fist of suns

Another amazing thing about Modern is that any long-time forgotten card touched by the grace of an appearance in a Daily Event (DE) deck list, in Travis Woo videos or in a GP/PT coverage can rise from nothing to several tix in less than a day. Even cards that have been around for quite a long time and which have seen basically no play in any competitive deck suddenly become the most chased card in the Modern format.

In terms of speculation and ROI, these cards are a sort of Holy Grail--0.05tix one day, 2 tix the next day. Couple of tix invested, hundreds harvested.

These spikes seem rather unpredictable… or are they? Well, I really think they are unpredictable.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for goblin charbelcher

However, if we can't really predict when these junk rares will rise from the dust, we can surely identify potential hidden gems. With minimum raises from 0.05 to 1 tix, and potentially way more, there's no need to be right 60% of the time. Finding the "one" only 10% of the time is probably sufficient enough.

Let's briefly review some great examples of cards considered unplayable at some moment of their history which have reached summits in no time. Then we'll see which cards have the potential to be the next big thing.

Previous Hidden Gems

The Big Winners

Among these incredible spikes, some really went through the roof, and all the way to the moon!

Disrupting Shoal, or the Travis Woo effect at its best. Three years ago, before Modern became an official format, the blue shoal was total junk at around 0.05 tix and quickly jumped at 1.5 tix after the first Modern PT. Then it oscillated between 0.3 and 1 tix for about one and a half years, before skyrocketing to 12 tix last January thanks to the popularity of the Ninja Bear deck.
Fist of Suns never really hit bottom as a pure junk, at least with the price history with have on MtgGoldfish. Nonetheless, for a long time this artifact was under 0.5 tix until it exploded mid-December 2013 and reached 6+ tix a month later. It only took a DE deck list and a GP coverage.
Goblin Charbelcher. Never really used and at around 0.2 tix in December 2012, the Charbelcher climbed to 2.5 tix in January 2013. Back to 0.3 tix last summer, it almost reached 5 tix earlier this January. Here, the lightning struck twice in about a year, 1250% first strike, 1600% second strike!
Amulet of Vigor, a favorite speculation success story. As far as MtgGoldfish history allows us to see, the Amulet was able to be found at 0.2 or less up to January 2012. Then it got a little more oscillations until that impressive one-night 4-tix spike during PT Valencia.
Goryo's Vengeance. A true junk rare before Modern was created. After a nice little increase to 2 tix early in the Modern format, the reanimator instant got a gigantic boost with the release of Griselbrand, hitting 8, then 10 and recently 12 tix.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for griselbrand

Other Winners

This phenomenon is not isolated. Several other card have experienced the same "lucky" destiny. Not so long ago these cards were at 0.1 tix or below, and picked with a 1000% increase or more as testified by their price history.

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There was an error retrieving a chart for spoils of the vault

There was an error retrieving a chart for archive trap

There was an error retrieving a chart for restore balance

You may also think that these sudden spikes are reserved for cards from older sets. Some more recent spikes show us that even cards printed in the last year or so are potential candidates.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ad Nauseam

There was an error retrieving a chart for Genesis Wave

There was an error retrieving a chart for Countryside Crusher

There was an error retrieving a chart for stony silence

Porphyry Nodes is a particularly interesting case. The card has been around for a while and the Modern metagame decided to make it a star only last month! Maybe because of recent B&R changes? Or maybe because it has been caught on PT cameras?

Identifying the Next Hidden Gems

Timing and Goals

First of all, this type of speculation is not a short- or mid-term investment. As you saw with previous cards, it may take years before it hits the big jump. You must be ready to hold these cards for probably a year or two, even if one of them can breakout almost anytime.

My goal here is not to find only winners. I know that many of them won't do anything, even after ten years. With expected ROI of 1000% or more, I'm looking to be right just about 10% of the time--that will be enough to generate some profits. If 20% or 30% of my picks turn out to be successful, I'll be totally happy.

Finally, depending on how and when a card breaks out I'll consider selling only if it reaches 1000% of its initial price.

Criteria for Selecting Top Junk Rares

When reviewing the potential candidates for a big move, I established a few rules for my selection. It is also up to you, according to your preferences and feeling to set your own criteria when picking junk rares.

They must be rares, or mythics (although mythics are unlikely to be low enough in price to hold sufficient potential profits). Why rares only? They simply have a better potential than uncommons or commons for a buying starting point. Past examples showed us that junk rares can jump to up to 10 tix from as low as 0.05 tix, for a 2000% profit at most. Because of their availability, uncommons and commons can't rise significantly enough.
These junk rare must be at 0.2 tix or lower when bought. Most likely they will be in the 0.05-0.15 range. Again, this is to secure the best potential return in case of breakout.
When selecting these cards, I am looking for unique effects among the pool of Modern cards. Some cards that don't do much in our current metagame might need another card, from a future set, to completely reveal their power.
Finally, these cards should have a low casting cost. One to three mana is probably the best range for potential breakout cards. It doesn’t mean that a five-mana casting cost is a deal breaker, but it is less likely to impact the Modern format than a one-mana casting cost.

My Top 10 Picks

Here are the junk rares I think are worth considering.

I bought 10 tix worth of each of these cards. My expectations? That at least one of them tops 1+ tix within a year. That's the bet I take here.

#1 and #2

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There was an error retrieving a chart for Necrotic Ooze

These two cards have made little noise recently because of their interaction with Griselbrand and Borborygmos Enraged. With the Borrower or the Ooze, the trick is pretty neat, it may happen turn 2 or 3, and you can set up your combo without much warning at instant speed. Any new creature, or artifact, with an overpowered ability for ridiculous activation cost can potentially trigger the spike here.

#3

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spoils of the vault

I mentioned this last week. Its price is pretty attractive right now especially as a junk rare speculation. This black instant has already spiked in the past and I see no reason why it would not again. This card is fully dedicated to a combo deck, and that's exactly what it takes for sudden spike thanks to a good DE or GP result.

#4

Several unsuccessful attempts have been made to produce a competitive deck with this variant of Glimpse of Nature. Intruder Alarm Elves is probably the best version so far.

I gave it a try myself in a Zombie Infestation + Stinkweed Imp dredge deck. Make a zombie to draw a card, dredge the imp, reveal a Narcomoeba sometimes and mill all your deck turn three with half a dozen of zombies and four 1/1 fliers on the battlefield. Very little is missing to make Beck // Call a 1+ tix card.

#5

There was an error retrieving a chart for Artificer's Intuition

Survival of the Fittest for artifacts? not really. But for sure this enchantment has an efficient and straightforward ability. Trinket Mage does a better job of searching for an artifact with a casting cost or one or less, but Artificer's Intuition also allows you to discard. As new sets get printed, more artifacts are likely to fit the requirements of the Intuition, and maybe one will make the blue enchantment a key card.

#6

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spellweaver Helix

This artifact surprisingly jumped from 0.05 to 0.5 tix last December. Now it is back to my "junk rare limit". How about turn two Enter the Infinite? Discard your big sorcery and one of the Phyrexian mana free spells with Faithless Looting. Play Spellweaver Helix turn two with some mana accelerator and play a second copy of your Phyrexian mana free spell. Sure you almost need a perfect hand, but that's the idea about the crazy potential of Spellweaver Helix.

#7

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Retract had a little bump when Beck // Call was spoiled. Zero-drop artifact creatures, a draw engine when they come into the battefield, and Retract seemed perfect to restart it all over again and draw dozen of cards. The potential is still here--a one blue mana instant, it can't get better, it just need the right shell to explode.

#8

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Luckily, or not, Dark Depths is banned in Modern. Nonetheless, the land from Gatecrash still holds some potential. Every new set can bring the land Thespian's Stage needs to take off.

#9

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Revoker

Pithing Needle on foot. This card never gets really high but is a part-time member of the Hatebear guys. With Scars flashback drafts running this week, the Revoker is dropping close to 0.2 tix. A perfect timing to grab some, especially with Vintage Masters coming up this summer.

#10

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chancellor of the Annex

Also dipping to a 0.05 tix junk rare because of flashback drafts, the white chancellor sees some play in Manaless Dredge in Legacy. This card could definitely find a place in a Modern deck if the metagame become more favorable and/or in combination with new cards.

To Conclude

These ten cards represent to me good junk rare speculation opportunities. Some of them have had little bumps recently and might take off soon even without a GP or PT coverage.

Other cards could have been in this list, or were slightly higher in price as of now, such as the red and blue hideaway lands.

What do you think? If you have other suggestion or idea, feel free to share! Here, it is a list of ten, but we could easily include ten other cards. What are your choices?

Thank you for reading!

Sylvain Lehoux

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Elspeth

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Untitled Deck

Creatures

Spells

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Sideboard

Get Aggressive

Set Up for the Win

All-In Troll

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Wrapping up

Tournament Tips: Learn from your mistakes

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1) Does this card tutor?

2) Does this card provide card advantage?

3) Does this card win the game?

4) Does this card form an infinite combo with another card?

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Cons

He Biases You Toward an Extra Land

He Biases You Toward the Fourth Shock

He Doesn't Have Haste

He's Bad Against Jace

Pros

He Makes Your Spells Better

He Overwhelms Sylvan Caryatid

He Goes Toe to Toe with Master of Waves and Desecration Demon

He Makes Your Aggro Matchups Dramatically Better

Conclusion

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Glossed Over?

My Goals

Why You Should Set Sort and Alphabetize Before You Buylist

Inputting Cards Into the Buylist Interface

Verifying You Have the Correct Cards

Packaging the Cards and Mailing Them

Piling On

One Drawback

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Previous Hidden Gems

The Big Winners

There was an error retrieving a chart for goryo's vengeance There was an error retrieving a chart for griselbrand

Other Winners

Identifying the Next Hidden Gems

Timing and Goals

Criteria for Selecting Top Junk Rares

My Top 10 Picks

#1 and #2

#3

#4

#5

#6

#7

#8

#9

#10

To Conclude

Want Prices?

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There was an error retrieving a chart for griselbrand