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Insider: How to Make Money From Your Cube, Part 2

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So you decided to come back. That is great news. You are well on your way through Cube detox. Last time I went through Step 1: Defoilize where I talked about taking foils out of your Cube. In Step 2a: Bring on the ICE, I detailed the savings of replacing expensive Dual lands and/or Power 9 with ICE cards. Today we are going to dig down and get ourselves a little dirtier. Warning, the suggestions I am putting forth today are pretty drastic.

Boxed sets in the old days of Magic are much different than what we get today. Almost any prepackaged deck that WotC makes for us has a specific market or decent monetary value to back it up. In the old days of Magic, this was definitely not the case. Boxed products were pushed out randomly with little hype and not much reasoning behind them. Some products had very small target markets so they were doomed to fail. This brings us to the other boxed set(s) that can now save us money, the World Chamipionship Deck series.

Step 2b: WWCD (What Would a Cheapo Do)?

The World Championship Deck (WCD) series was a great idea but in the real world it was basically doomed from the start. From 1998-2004, decks from the World Championship tournament, usually picked from the top 16, were reproduced as single deck products. They were basically commemorative decks to celebrate the World Championships. Because reprinting a Constructed deck will ultimately either destroy the value of the secondary market or be to expensive to purchase at a retail price, WotC ended up creating cards that are visually distinct from regular cards.

They have gold borders instead of the regular black borders and the card back has an entirely different back from a regular Magic card. This created a product that no one actually wanted. Tournament players didn't want cards they couldn’t play with in a DCI sanctioned environment. Casual players didn’t find ultra competitive tournament winning decks something they wanted to play. They also were not able to tweak the decks very much because they couldn’t easily integrate them into decks with other cards of theirs.

Luckily for us many things have changed since the early years of Magic. Sleeves for one have come a long way. I remember penny sleeves were the only product other than top loaders that you could buy to protect your cards. Now we have sleeves of all kinds. Pictures, holograms, reflective and even the horrible concept of round cornered sleeves. In the early years of Magic, the WCD cards could not be played with regular cards but all we have to do now is put them into opaque sleeves and you can use them in any setting except for Constructed. From there all you have to do is get past the gold border and the almost always ugly signature plastered on the front of the card. If you do get past it, there are some big discounts on extremely playable Cube cards.

The most expensive cards you can replace with WCDs are Force of Will, Gaea’s Cradle and Wasteland. If you switch only these three out for their World Championship counterparts you are saving $140 retail as well as taking out some key cards that are easy for thieves to spot. Imagine what you could do with that $140 knowing what you know finance wise.

I rarely see these in trade binders and that is most likely not a regional oddity. They are actually somewhat hard to find even on the web. It is probably a combination of low print runs and a very low demand for these that stores and players a like don’t even bother paying attention to them. I personally have two decks that have been sitting in my CCG graveyard box and I never even thought that they could be worth some money over the years.

Aside from lowering the attraction thieves have to your Cube, there is an actual investment opportunity with gold border cards. The smartphone era of trading has taken the art out of trading. Finding out what someone wanted and getting value out of that need was really what separated a good trader from a great trader. Nowadays you can still do that but it is much harder to come out ahead if every trade is just equalized using SCG’s retail prices.

Prices for these cards cannot be found easily through regular means like SCG or TCG player. They currently do not have listings for them on either site and I am not even sure if they have ever had them listed in their inventory. They are basically impossible to find on MOTL because using their search tool will bring up everyone asking to not trade for Gold Border cards. Most websites don’t list them either or don’t have stock. The only store that I have found that has a surplus of singles in stock is ABUgames. They are even hard to find on eBay. So in the end WCDs will save you money but being a savvy trader can turn them into assets that you ultimately control the price of.

Gaea’s Cradle goes for around $15-$20 on eBay, but I don’t think it is out of the question to ask for $25-$30 when the original is pushing $80. Wasteland is around $5 but could easily be traded for $10 - $20, especially for a Commander player who has too many decks and not enough Wastelands. I personally don’t consider this sharking or lying to your trade partner because these cards are really niche and rare enough that the average trader will probably never see one of these again, at least in a trade binder. I would imagine you could make a killing at a GP if you had good stock on these and you knew how to sell them properly to people. It all comes down to understanding the people around you on the trade tables.

Selling someone on why and how they can use the WCD cards is great but it does highlight that there really isn’t an actual demand for them. You have to create the demand. This may mean you can get stuck with some of these if you are not careful. The profit opportunities on some of the higher end cards is high enough that it is pretty easy to cover your initial costs with one or two trades

To me the Cube community seems like it is where the Commander community was before the Commander sets were released. I do believe Cubes are getting more and more popular so I am optimistic that the demand is actually growing enough for there to even be some increases to the value of some of these cards, most likely in the lower priced cards because I do think there is a pretty solid ceiling to cards you can’t actually play in Constructed formats. MTGO Cube has helped bring focus to the format and now that we have Modern Masters coming next year which sort of acts like a Modern Cube the focus will hopefully grow even more.

Step 3: Did you say Heavenly Played?

The last step to devaluing your Cube is a doozy. I warn you, it may not be for the faint of heart. Actively seeking out heavily played or worse cards. I’m not talking about your run of the mill slightly played cards. Shuffle creases, white nicks on borders and even slight creases are not what I am looking for. I’m talking full on holes that you can see through, Cards that look like they were put through the washing machine, ripped cards and my favorite, cards that have been bitten, human or animal, it doesn’t matter as long as there are bite marks. These are cards that are so badly damaged that you may get them as throw ins or at worst you are getting them for 50% of their retail value.

As long as the cards are not marked in sleeves I think a heavily played Cube is actually an interesting feat to achieve. Every card becomes a conversation piece. It almost becomes like that car crash that you can’t help watch while you are driving down the highway. It will make your Cube ugly yet loveable because everyone loves an underdog. People may even ruin cards for you just for the sake of a good laugh. Just talking about a Cube full of horribly damaged cards is currently putting a smile on face. If you think of it, a heavy played Cube is really one of the most memorable Cubes anyone will ever see.

The funny thing is, it actually may be hard to find a lot of cards in this condition. People who trade don’t usually take bad care of their own cards. You can sometimes find a real winner on eBay but they sometimes still sell for amounts I personally would not be willing to pay. The key here is to get big discounts on a significant portion of your Cube. Mixing this step with one of the previous steps could save you even more money. Just imagine how much a heavily played ICE Black Lotus could potentially end up saving you.

It may have started out as a defensive move vs the growing problem of thieves in our community, but like most things in life it really turns into something else by the end of it. I have a very foiled Commander deck that is very dear to my heart but the more I think of it I can see the adventure of searching for a Heavily Played Umezawa's Jitte may be just as rewarding as any foil I got for my good friend Wort. Its all about the journey at this point. So even though the value you'll get by devaluing your Cube is a great reason to do it if you take it as a challenge to hunt down all your replacement cards it will be an entirely different and fulfilling experience.

Insider: Being a Cowboy Aint All It’s Cracked Up to Be.

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During Return to Ravnica preorder season, my friend made a call on Sigarda, Host of Herons, buying 93 at $5 shipped.

A lot of finance people in articles and tweets, as well as myself in private Skype conversations with him, had been singing the praises of the card. I hadn't even seen a dissenting opinion at the time, credible or otherwise, though I'm sure one existed.

He expected to sell copies for between $8-10 during the RTR Standard season after the zombie hype subsided, netting a tidy profit for himself.

Sigarda seemed poised to dominate the new Standard format. Nothing could kill her! She blanked Liliana of the Veil, crushed Tamiyo the Moon Sage, and even blocked zombies with the best of them. The knowledge that Temple Garden would be in the coming set only made the case stronger that Sigarda was a surefire bomb, an obvious buy.

His play looks pretty good right now. Sigarda has been steadily rising since hitting her floor in September and she is buylisting for $8 on Channel Fireball.

What if I told you most of those 93 copies were already gone?

~

GP San Jose was a pretty insane weekend. I might have slept 7 hours over 3 days and was having trouble adding when I finally got home Sunday night. The most interesting thing that happened that weekend (from a financial perspective) was Entreat the Angels appearing on buylists at $15 when the card was moving at 15-18 in trade.

Overall, a much less relevant thing happened when HotSauce Games gave my friend $7 each on 20 Sigardas.

He was looking to become more liquid by the end of the GP, and throughout the rest of the weekend he flipped another 50 Sigardas for between $6-7 each along with a bunch of other Standard stock, getting his money back on the Sigarda play itself while keeping the 20 that were 'free'.

~

GP San Jose was held from October 12th – 14th, and the Sigardas were purchased during the middle of September. The $465 spent on the initial purchase was between 15-18% of his liquid bankroll at the time.

When my friend left the convention hall that Sunday, he had netted $0 on his initial investment and 20 pieces of capital that were worth between $6-7 each, and in the 3 weeks since then have grown to $8 each (CFB's buylist). Is a potential $160 or 34% return on a $465 investment acceptable?

Of course it is. My problem is the time involved. He took almost 1/5 of his liquid capital and let it sit for a month. The passive growth he gained is very good by most financial market standards, but Magic is not like most financial markets.

Information is the most valuable commodity available. In most markets, the majority of goods bought and sold are done so by people whose job it is to be informed about said goods and the myriad other things that pertain to them. This is not the case for nearly all of the Magic related transactions that take place on a given day, and for good reason - Magic is a hobby.

People have jobs, school, etc, and, as such, most Magic players/collectors are not able to stay on top of Standard prices, much less Commander/casual or even the eternal formats. The popularity of smart phones has changed this somewhat, and your average FNM player can become partially informed in a minute or two, but nearly all of them never go beyond checking retail prices on a single website.

To be fair, why would they need to know more? This is a trade or maybe a  free draft, so why does eBay, MOTL or some store's buylist that's across the country matter? The incremental gains you get because you are informed compound over time the more transactions you make. Every time you sit down with someone else's binder, every time you're around other magic players, its an opportunity.

How many Snapcaster Mages could he have bought and resold, or traded away for value during the month those Sigardas sat? How many $1 rares that he could have bought for quarters did that stagnant capital cost him? I want turnover. I want liquidity and the flexibility it brings. It isn't sexy, you don't get to brag to your friends about your sick picks and complain to them about how you have 100 Havoc Festivals. If you can get even a consistent 10% gain on each trade or transaction, the incentive is to make as many of them as you can.

I think my friend's speculation was fine, and while he sold early, his profits look to be pretty good on the investment as a whole. My dissatisfaction with it came from an evolving mindset about the entire idea of speculation. Being a 'cowboy' as Medina called it on Brainstorm Brewery is fun as hell, but I don't think it's the best way for me to spend my money.

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Paul Feudo

Paul Feudo started playing Magic in 1999 and became fascinated by the financial aspect of the game a few years later. He recently gave up the competitive dream and became focused solely on trends in the Magic economy. Follow him on twitter @plfeudo.

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Posted in Finance, Free Insider18 Comments on Insider: Being a Cowboy Aint All It’s Cracked Up to Be.

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Jason’s Archives: The Cousin of the Potato

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Greetings, Speculators!

I probably sound like a curmudgeon when I say this, but...

Magic Players Lack Imagination

Let's face it, speculators do, too. Since I don't really learn anything if I ignore all the times I was wrong, I like to postgame every little prediction I make about the game. At the Avacyn Restored prerelease I was picking up as many copies of Cavern of Souls as I could, going so far as to pay $20 cash for one. This was by far the most exciting card in the set to me (all anyone wanted to talk about was Temporal Mastery) and I saw it hitting Mutavault money due to its Legacy playability coupled with its Standard appeal. Who doesn't want to fix mana in tribal decks and ward off Mana Leak? I watched Caverns hit $32 on a popular retail website.

And held.

I saw a few [card Azorius Guildgate]guildgates[/card] at a TCGPlayer Platinum event in Grand Rapids on Sunday (not as many as I used to see) and was reminded of an argument I saw taking place on Reddit where someone said the guildgates could be playable and a lot of people laughed at him.

I won't pretend I didn't side with the naysayers. With the M10 duals, the shocklands and Cavern of Souls, why would G/B Zombies want Golgari Guildgate? What's so great about a land that always comes into play tapped? Well, after testing it, Gerry T said he'd rather play Golgari Guildgate in zombies than Cavern. I got to be wrong twice.

...But Not All of Them

Usually it takes tech a bit of time to trickle over from Limited to Standard. If you assembled Cunning Sparkmage plus Basilisk Collar in Limited, you were obviously good to go, but that combo was too janky for Standard. Until it wasn't. The community is gradually learning lessons from Limited quicker, accepting them with fewer arguments and applying more due diligence in the form of testing. As slow as the format is to abandon old, outdated tech --as slow as it ever was-- it's become much quicker at accepting new tech.

Some day in the not too distant past someone said, "I think Izzet Staticaster with Nightshade Peddler is powerful," and kept sleeving the deck while his friends laughed at him. But unlike in the days of Cunning Sparkmage and Basilisk Collar, when people saw the deck online many of them shrugged and say "yeah, that's probably a thing." My buddy Matt Hetzner for one, who saw the deck on Saturday, tested it and took it to Grand Rapids on Sunday.

My first thought was not "what jank," but rather "I see so many [card Angel of Serenity]Angels[/card] here today, Peddler seems nuts with Thundermaw Hellkite1." However, that's also incorrect. My first thought should have been "Let me check that decklist online to see if it already runs Hellkite so I don't look like a doofus for suggesting the card on Twitter."

The point is, my heart got in front of my head and I looked like a doofus. But I don't care! People blurt stuff out like that all the time, but Twitter managed to immortalize my blunder and save it for posterity. I was so excited that I wanted to talk about card interactions before even looking at the entire decklist, and I don't even play Magic.

1 To be fair, Thundermaw doesn't need much help. I still see a ton of Angels, and I think Hellkite is nuts right now.

Managing Expectations

Matt did... OK with the deck. He ruined Team Dreamcrush member Kyle English's day, which is just as important as a Top 8.

With fewer than 24 hours to test, I am not sure what anyone expected other than to troll people and have fun. When you're not pinging dudes, you're a four-card combo deck, the cheapest component of which costs five mana. As much fun as it is to turn every 1U into two life and a wolf or five life and a beast using Deadeye Navigator (all of the fun obviously), the deck probably needs work. Even StaticPeddler is a two card combo that combines to become a bad Sever the Bloodline (albeit reusable and instant-speed). At least Collarmage had Fauna Shaman and Stoneforge Mystic.

I don't care about the deck specifically. The lesson here is that the community may have laughed at a silly interaction between two cards that only saw Limited play before, but people were playing this one 24 hours after the tech was discovered. Not bad for a community that didn't think Rakdos Keyrune would ever see constructed play. We compared it to Rakdos Signet when we should have been comparing it to Chimeric Idol. As bad as it feels to be wrong, the community is getting much better at shrugging and saying, "that's a thing."

Let's face it. The format is like two weeks old. A lot of things are "a thing" so go find them. If someone can pair Izzet Staticaster and Nightshade Peddler and have people copy that tech, your idea can only be slightly less cartoony by comparison.

More Decks than Tony Stark's House

I can't dwell on anything too long since there was an SCG Open, a Modern GP and a Standard GP. Too much to get through!

GP Auckland Top 8

Half of the Top 8 were Reanimator Decks. This is good news for someone like me who was banking on this trend and has socked away plenty of cards that play well with this strategy. Craterhoof Behemoth can still be found for around $2, so you should get a bunch of those. Check the four lists carefully, one of them looks a bit different.

R/U/W and U/W made up three of the other Top 8 decks. I like Bant right now, but if angels continue to menace the game, the U/W shell with Thundermaw Hellkite over Thragtusk may be the way to go. Or, screw it. Play four-color. This is a Ravnica set after all.

Did you get a bunch of Sphinx's Revelation at $3 like I did? Don't go up for a high five yet. I got sick of waiting and dumped mine for $4 each. D'oh! I felt like a horse's ass buying them back for $4 and $5, but this card is the real deal, and since $10 seems reasonable for it, a $4 buy-in certainly is.

As a sidebar, a card that I hated (listen to the Brainstorm Brewery episode for the proof) is making waves in Jund: Rakdos's Return. When your opponent casts [card Sphinxs Revelation]Revelation[/card] for four you start to worry about him grinding out a win and undoing your previous work with the life gain. Bummer. When an opponent casts Rakdos's Return for four, it may be time to sideboard for game two.

Redirect is a good answer to both, and two blue left up isn't anything people play around anymore. With Mana Leak gone and Syncopate for one being weak, people play headlong into Redirect. You have room in your board. What? You'll get with me on Nightshade Peddler but not a card that makes people [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card] themselves?

Ninja Edit- There's a reason no one is playing Redirect. The language on Sphinx's Revelation says only the caster can benefit from it and Rakdos' Return can only be Redirected in multiplayer games, and if you're playing multiplayer you should just let the Rakdos' Return hit you because you should learn that you shouldn't be playing multiplayer. Why did I write bad information in my article? That's a good question. I didn't read either card, clearly. As was the case with the Thundermaw decklist, I got excited about potential card interactions. I will take as much grief as anyone wants to give me, but only from people who have never suggested a card interaction that doesn't quite work and been corrected by someone more astute.

One Naya deck rounded out the Top 8 and made me wonder what will happen once Boros and Gruul both show up. Naya being a deck without those guilds' contributions makes me excited for the future.

GP Lyon Top 8

There was a Modern GP in Lyon and I clearly haven't been following this format much.

If you'd asked me what I thought the top Modern decks were, I would have said Jund, Pod, and Tron. The actual Top 8 was 2x Affinity, 2x Pod, a Bug deck, only one Jund and some manner of U/W deck with Baneslayer Angel! (People may have forgotten she's the most oppressive angel ever printed; Sorry [card Restoration Angel]Resto[/card], but you don't make games unwinnable on your own.)

Rounding out the Top 8 was a Pyro Ascension list that clearly benefits from Goblin Electromancer. Paying R for Manamorphose seriously feels like cheating.

Jund was the winner, but that BUG list might bear a closer look. It looks so much like a Legacy deck it can't possibly not continue to crush.

SCG Open St. Louis Top 16 Standard Decks

My buddy Ryan Forsberg won this event, which isn't all that surprising to me since I've followed his progress over the last 12 months. Anyone who can bear a 45-minute conversation with me about the merits of Gut Shot in the sideboard of Maverick (it was a long 24 hour drive from GP Orlando back to the Midwest) is clearly someone who spends a lot of time thinking about the game. Of the three blue-based midrange decks in the Top 8, his was the only that included red for [card Bonfire of the Damned]Bonfire[/card], [card Pillar of Flame]Pillar[/card] and Thundermaw Hellkite. Suck it, mirror match!

Jund Midrange was also present, but it finished lower than the two Bant Control decks (very different lists) and G/W Humans. G/W Humans seems capable of racing Thragtusk decks, but only barely. But having watched turn one pilgrim, turn two Loxodon Smiter, turn three Rancor on Smiter, bond with Silverblade Paladin, swing for 39, I think it's a good choice. Especially against a bunch of durdly midrange decks that may keep a three-land, two-planeswalker, 2X hand not knowing what to put you on. If you can kill them before 5 mana, their life total is 20. After that, their life total is 40. Thragtusk does work.

All the Craterhoof Behemoths I keep seeing make me think it may be time to put it back in the Reanimator deck I have been championing. That means putting Avacyn's Pilgrim back in, too, but Craterhoof is silly and it's rare to swing with it and not at least threaten lethal. Don't cut your graveyard hate, folks.

SCG Open St. Louis Top 16 Legacy Decks

RUG Delver made a big comeback finishing both first and second. Six other decks made up the Top 8, including a recurrence of the Deadguy Ale deck I liked last time around.

In a RUG Delver-infested format, I think Bant Maverick is the way to go. Geist of Saint Traft is safer with exalted triggers which give him a nice shield (despite his not truly attacking alone) and let him live to swing again. And Rhox War Monk is a lovely impediment to Nimble Mongoose, a card that's otherwise tough to deal with. Or you could be like this guy and not run any of that stuff and just crush your way into Top 8. I hear counterspells are good against Show and Tell.

Apparently a lot is good against it. There were zero in the Top 16.

U/W, on the other hand, put three in the Top 16. It's also good to see another Top 16 finish from Death and Taxes. Phyrexian Revoker seems to be a mainstay. But no repeat performance from the Tezzerator deck from a few weeks ago.

With so many decks in the Top 16, Legacy continues to be the healthiest format. Pick a deck you like, learn it, and learn to sideboard. That's the secret to Legacy. The Legacy metagame basically consists of one or two decks that seem to top eight every event for about a year, then are replaced, and a bunch of other decks that are all a one-of in the Top 16 of almost every event because Legacy is a format where pet decks are competitive.

That Does It for Me

I'm out. Join me next week when I'll hopefully have found something worth looking at on Reddit. Remember when I still did that?

Insider: The Value Barrier of Standard

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Around three years ago I made the realization that being a strategic Magic Card trader, buyer and seller could help me grow my collection and support my hobby. I've gone from someone who didn’t understand how a player could accumulate wealth through trading to someone who writes for a major Magic website that focuses on finance.

Through this transformation, I’ve made a few sacrifices. One of the toughest sacrifices has been my inability to justify playing Standard competitively. Often times Standard can be a fun format and, for me, being able to play with so many new cards can help to reinvigorate the game. When Legacy is stagnant and Modern is trying to find itself, Standard remains as exciting as ever with Return to Ravnica hitting the metagame.

But as a speculator first and player second, I struggle with playing Standard because of the negative impact holding Standard cards has on my portfolio. Everyone knows how Standard cards drop in value significantly as rotation approaches. Often times, the cards that face the largest price drop are also the cards that are “necessary” to own. But because they are so ubiquitous in the format, they are also often overpriced.

I haven’t played Standard in a few months and am especially regretful since I haven’t had a chance to play the new cards Return to Ravnica brought. This week I will try to assess when and how to break into Standard while minimizing the psychological barrier to entry caused by the knowledge that I may be losing value.

The Problem

Thragtusk is so powerful in Standard. It combines very well with Restoration Angel and helps beat out all the removal spells available in the format. For all these benefits, the creature has a relatively aggressive mana cost. As a result, this M13 rare has reached a price that rivals even Snapcaster Mage.

In fact, currently on SCG the price of Thragtusk is $24.99, while Snapcaster Mage is also $24.99. One major difference: Thragtusk is sold out while there are 47 copies of Snapcaster Mage in stock.

I am somewhat baffled by this pricing. Thragtusk is only a rare, it only sees play in Standard, and it was printed in an Event Deck! And this Event Deck can be had for less than $24.99 at other sites like Amazon.com.

Because I focus on maintaining the value of my collection, I struggle to overcome this discrepancy in order to play Standard. I simply do not agree with the current price of Thragtusk and I personally feel the card will drop in price from here. Why anyone would buy a single copy of the card for $24.99 when they could buy the Event Deck (which also includes 1 Green Suns Zenith, 2 Razorverge Thicket and 2 Dismember) for $22.44 is beyond me.

While Thragtusk is perhaps an extreme example, many hyped Standard cards experience similar price inflation. It can even be more extreme with Mythic Rares. For example, I found it difficult to stomach paying $20 for Geist of Saint Traft. The price is even higher now, and I just know it will drop in value significantly once it rotates out of Standard (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

Don’t even get me started on Bonfire of the Damned, which peaked at the ridiculous price of $49.99 only to come back down to reality once Return to Ravnica shook up Standard.

Possible Solutions

I’ve tested two different approaches to enjoying Standard while not risking hundreds of dollars. A while back I read about the discard deck that combined Megrim and Lilianas Caress.

The deck seemed incredibly fun and somewhat viable. But the best part was the deck was exceptionally cheap! Building a super-budget Standard deck can be rewarding. Stomping over your opponent’s $50 cards with commons and uncommons is a ton of fun. But this deck had two major problems associated with it.

First, it wasn’t close to Tier 1. Punishing an opponent for a sub-optimal draw was doable and did happen on occasion, but the deck wasn’t competitive enough to win tournaments. The second problem was that the deck relied on cards in two different Core Sets. As a result, while the deck cost me less than $20 to build, it was also only legal in Standard for three months.

Budget decks are great because they enable you to play in Standard events cheaply, but it’s very difficult to beat all these overpriced cards. Building a better budget deck right before the format rotates can help you improve win percentages, but only for a couple months. There must be a better way.

Perhaps the only answer is to eat the potential loss in value and acquire the overpriced cards. This approach certainly overcomes the issue of not having a Tier 1 deck. And I suppose if you jump into Standard early enough, your cards will remain Standard legal for at least a year and this can justify the higher cost of entry.

But I must point out one potential downfall with this approach. Currently there are five sets legal in Standard – every time a format rotates, the card pool to build from becomes it’s smallest for a few months. When Gatecrash is released, the card pool will increase dramatically and the number of sets legal in Standard increases by 20%.

With this impactful release, the metagame is sure to shift.

So while getting in early ensures my cards are playable in Standard for the most amount of time, this also sets me up to have cards that become irrelevant in a shifting metagame. If Wizards makes a new guild such as Boros or Simic overly powerful in Gatecrash, some strategies may become obsolete. Even without Gatecrash’s release, we’ve seen the rapid rise and decline of Zombie decks simply due to evolution of the metagame. Had I bought into Zombies early on, I could be sitting on a mound of expensive, undesirable cards destined to drop in price right now (chart from blacklotusproject.com).

It’s a Delicate Balance

Thus, we have a delicate balance in the making.

  1. Build a deck later and on a budget and you may not have a Tier 1 strategy to play with, full of cards that are destined for rotation, making your deck viable for just a small window.
  2. Or build a deck earlier to maximize the time you can use your cards, risking succumbing to an evolving metagame that obsoletes your deck.

Perhaps the best time to get in is right now. While Gatecrash hasn’t been released yet, at least the metagame has started to stabilize. Decks like Bant control, Jund midrange, U/W/R midrange, Frites and an array of UW strategies all seem to have established a level of success. And while new strategies may surface when new sets are released, these decks may be robust enough to remain relevant with just a few small tweaks.

At the end of the day the cost of Standard seems so prohibitive. I joke with other players that Legacy and Modern are significantly cheaper to get into because once you own a core group of cards you are able to play a relevant deck for years. Meanwhile, with Standard, you have to constantly acquire new cards to keep your deck fresh and viable in the current metagame. So while I spent more to enter Legacy to start with, I definitely need to spend more cash to maintain a viable Standard deck than a viable Legacy deck.

As an MTG Speculator first and player second, this has been tough for me to stomach. How do you manage?

Sigbits – Standard Edition

  • Jace, Architect of Thought has finally begun dropping to reasonable prices. This should come as no surprise. Star City Games currently has 40 copies in stock at $39.99 and I’ve been seeing auctions on eBay end in the low $30’s. If Jace remains very strong in Standard, I expect his value shouldn’t drop too much further.
  • Since I made the call on Angel of Serenity, I feel obligated to mention that I’ve sold my extra copies. Star City Games has had dozens in stock at $24.99 for a while now, and I could see her price stabilizing or even dropping back down to $19.99. It was a good run nonetheless.
  • I’ve slowly begun trading into Shock Lands. It seems Standard players have the copies they need and all extras go right into the trade binder. At the last FNM, players were eager to trade me their Hallowed Fountains and Steam Vents at around $12.50. Not bad considering SCG sells them at $17.99 and $14.99, respectively. Shock Lands may see a little bit more of a price drop, but once Innistrad Block rotates and Return to Ravnica becomes the oldest set in the format, supply will dry up quickly and prices will rebound.

-Sigmund Ausfresser
@sigfig8

Insider: Managing MTG Speculation Risk With Asset Allocation Models

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Magic: The Gathering allows for speculation because it creates a market that is both inefficient and volatile.

I suspect most of us realize we can make money with Magic cards because of predictable fluctuations in individual card pricing and inefficient pricing. In this article I am going to describe an asset allocation model that will allow MTG speculators to take advantage of pricing inefficiencies and predictable fluctuations while protecting against total loss.

Inventory & Cash

The first thing any speculator must do is determine the value of their MTG assets. I am conservative and use dealer buylist pricing when valuing my own cards. While conservative, this helps me approach a real liquidation value for my inventory as well as allowing me to meet my own minimum cash requirements with ease.

Managing risk in MTG means maintaining a healthy cash position. The most practical use of cash when increasing the value of your Magic inventory will be the direct purchase of cards from distressed sellers. Cash will also allow you to take large positions on spec targets quickly compared with trading into a new position.

By maintaining a cash position that is a percentage of your MTG inventory value, you will be actively managing the risks of maintaining your card inventory. Selling cards as they increase in value to maintain a 30% cash total portfolio value will ensure you don't grow inventory too quickly while taking on too much risk.

Segmentation & Allocation

Take a similar percentage of assets approach to further segment your Magic collection. This segmentation should be used to reduce risk by either spreading exposure to multiple Magic markets OR insuring that you make similar smaller sized spec bets versus one large speculation bet.

I maintain an inventory made up of 30% cash, 5% MTGO, 40% Standard, and 25% Legacy. My small MTGO position is the result of my inexperience in the market and the forced currency conversion. While I do not maintain a Modern inventory presently, that market seems the most likely to grow.

Considering growth upcoming in Modern, I plan to reallocate my investments such that I maintain the following asset allocation model: 30% Standard, 30% Modern, 20% Cash, 15% Legacy, 5% MTGO.

Develop an asset allocation model that most efficiently hedges your risks. Allow it to be informed by your assumptions about a particular market. These models are best used as quarterly rebalancing guidelines for your inventory.

Your local market should obviously inform your allocations. While Modern play is already as popular as Legacy in my area, trading Standard cards is where I extract the most value from my inventory.

I am hedging away from Legacy because it seems fully priced. While that means I'll continue to trade for Legacy staples, they will quickly be converted to cash or their Modern equivalents. I am going to try and fund any future MTGO speculation with sales out of Legacy and Standard but will cap future investment to 10% of total returns.

Betting

If you prefer to make big bets on single cards, you can create allocations specifically for such speculation. I would encourage you to consider how much of your total investments any particular card represents and make sure it never exceeds 5% of your total assets. Alternatively you could allocate 30% to Heavy Speculation and break that 30% up into individual card specs.

~

Applying asset allocation models will not only help you manage the risks you assume, but also make it easier to track your profits and break those profits down by sector. Come rebalancing time, you can actively invest more into higher return markets and reconsider allocation percentages based on past performance and future expectations.

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mathieu malecot

Mathieu is a daily trader of options/stocks, selling both bearish and bullish options. Lead wrangler of "The Kitten Ranch", as in lives and works at home with two annoying and cute (annoyingly cute?) cats. Ranch motto: "Always Feline Awesome". Playing magic since beta/ high school. Casual player and regular participant in FNM drafts.

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Good Luck, High Five! Episode 9: Give Up Yet?

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Mike, Forrest and Ryan are joined by legal expert Dana Kinsella to discuss this week in Magic. Topics covered include WotC's decision to publish fewer Magic Online decklists, thoughts on Grand Prix prizes by attendance, A+ card Pillar of Flame as well as a tirade of tantalizing tangents that regular listeners have come to expect- maybe even like. If you like Lego capes, you'll love this episode!

(The views expressed in "Good Luck, High Five!" are those of the personalities featured and do not necessarily represent the views of and should not be attributed to our host.)

Parental Advisory: May Contain Mild Obscene Language

Insider: Seasonality and MTGO

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Recently, a poster in the QS forums asked about the 'seasons' of Magic. This is short-hand among Magic players for talking about when a particular format is in vogue, stemming from the way Pro Tour Qualifiers (PTQs) are organized. For example, the next Pro Tour is PT Gatecrash in Montreal, Feb 15th to 17th. The current qualifiers are Return to Ravnica (RtR) Sealed Deck with top eight booster draft, winner takes the invite. So the current season would be called "Limited Season" and it runs into December.

Limited season is of little interest to the MTGO speculator, as any bump in supply from PTQs will be a drop in the bucket compared to how limited play normally impacts the market. The 24/7 drafting that occurs online overwhelms the supply injected by PTQs, so don't waste any time thinking about how limited season affects prices on MTGO.

Standard

Going slightly out of order, the final season of the year is Standard, running from the spring to the early summer. Constructed seasons are generally good for speculation in the world of MTG finance, but MTGO is a different beast and I have never found it profitable to speculate on the Standard season.

Standard is the dominant constructed format online. It attracts more players and fires more tournaments than any other format. Any additional interest in Standard during the season will simply be drowned out by the ongoing, sustained level of interest it always enjoys. In other words, the player base is already invested in Standard, so there is no premium to be gained due to Standard season. Price fluctuations will merely be a result of shifts in the metagame. This translates to little extra benefit from stocking up on Standard staples prior to the season.

Modern

The winter Modern season is the important one for MTGO speculators. The next round of PTQs feeding PT Dragon's Maze, will be Modern Constructed. It follows that during the period of January through April there will be extra demand for Modern staples as players practice and compete for PT invites. The resulting in-season premium is the main reason it is worthwhile to speculate on Modern staples, especially the out-of-print ones.

Mid-season shifts in the metagame also drive prices as strategies come in and out of favor. A staple that doesn't see a price bump at the season's outset could very well end up spiking later as the metagame develops. There are usually a few cards that see price gains later in the season, and Gatecrash is bound to impact the Modern metagame.

Modern, unlike Standard, sees fluctuating interest. These fluctuations drive prices up and down, giving speculators the opportunity to buy low and sell high. It's good to be aware of the way interest in different formats is driven, but for the MTGO speculator, the most important season is Modern as it offers the best speculative opportunities.

Modern Buys

Here are a few cards worth buying in the coming weeks with an eye to selling during Modern season. All prices from MTGOtraders.com and current as of October 31st, 2012.

Karn Liberated (12.93 tix): This mythic rare recently rotated out of Standard and appears as a four-of in R/G Tron. Although that deck didn't make much of a splash at PT RtR, I expect it to be played in greater numbers online. It beats Affinity and other non-interactive aggro decks quite handily, and those decks are typically over-represented online relative to IRL. Karn is also a 3rd set mythic and has found a price floor of 12-13 tix. It could see a price closer to 20 tix mid-season. Further, people love RG Tron - it's cheap to build and the dream scenario is really fun.

Grove of the Burnwillows (7.74 tix): Another four-of from R/G Tron, this is again a 3rd set rare that will see higher in-season prices. Expect it to reach 10+ tix.

Vendilion Clique (23.41) and Tarmogoyf (53.22 tix): Both of these saw a recent fall in price due to the announcement of the Modern Masters set. Both will still be pillars of the Modern format in January, so be sure to load up on these in the near term if you've got the tix. In-season prices of 30 and 70 tix respectively is not unreasonable, with higher prices possible. Remember that Modern Masters comes out after the PTQ season, so these cards will not be affected by reprints during peak play.

Creeping Tar Pit (0.83 tix): This U/B manland might not produce the best combination of colours for the current Modern format, but the Dimir guild (and the rest of Gatecrash) will arrive mid-season with lots of new multicoloured goodies to shake things up. This card saw peak prices over 3 tix last year and is an easy buy right now.

Cryptic Command (8.78) and Gifts Ungiven (4.57 tix): These two blue instants have seen quite a bit of play in the format. They are also from older sets and in-season prices have peaked at 15 tix and 13 tix. Real estate is often the best investment in Magic, but blue instants are not far behind.

Damping Matrix (0.12 tix): Modern sideboards sometimes cry out for this card's effect, and so for the speculator on a budget this is a cheap one to buy into at the current price of 0.12 tix. This occasionally went for 1.5 tix last year mid-season, and hails from the original Mirrodin, a set with a relatively low print run.

Breeding Pool (13.58 tix): It produces blue mana, is another 3rd set rare and it saw play in the BUG poison builds, which will be a good alternate deck choice for aggro players if Affinity gets hated out. This one should get to 20 tix, but don't get caught holding these after Gatecrash is released.

Wrapping Up

There are lots of other cards I expect to see play in Modern, but due to current high prices they are hard to recommend as buys. Scalding Tarn is one of the most used fetch lands in the format, but at close to 9 tix it's already well above in-season prices from last year. Twilight Mire is likewise a must-play in current Jund builds and quite a scarce card. It's also carrying an in-season price. Godless Shrine and Stomping Ground are both close to being good buys; 1 to 2 tix cheaper and they'd be on my list of recommendations.

Thragtusk: Beat ‘Em or Join ‘Em?

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Last night, I was talking to a friend on Facebook about the Standard metagame. Our discussion was primarily about what deck to play right now. My first point was that more players should be on board with a counterspell-based aggro deck like the one I talked about last week. As our conversation progressed I realized that all the decks we were talking about fell into two categories: decks that play Thragtusk and decks that try to beat those decks. At this point, we all know how powerful and frustrating playing against Thragtusk can be. Its mere existence causes the metagame to develop around it. Though it would never happen, I would not be upset to see the card banned in Standard because I think a format without him would prove a lot more fun and interesting. Since that is not really a possibility, we need to find ways to deal with it. Here are your choices as I see them.

1. Play a Thragtusk deck

There are many options in this category. The card is so good that he has made a few strategies viable. The best option in my opinion would be Bant Control. What’s better than playing Thragtusk? Drawing them more often with Jace, Architect of Thought. In this deck, not only do you get to play Thragtusk, but you get additional value from Restoration Angel. Here’s an example list for reference.

Bant Midrange by Reed Hartman
14th at SCG Indianapolis

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Angel of Serenity
3 Centaur Healer
4 Restoration Angel
4 Thragtusk

Spells

2 Detention Sphere
1 Sphinxs Revelation
4 Jace, Architect of Thought
2 Tamiyo, the Moon Sage
4 Call of the Conclave
4 Farseek
1 Supreme Verdict
3 Terminus

Lands

2 Clifftop Retreat
2 Evolving Wilds
1 Glacial Fortress
3 Hallowed Fountain
3 Hinterland Harbor
2 Kessig Wolf Run
1 Rootbound Crag
1 Steam Vents
2 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden
3 Forest
1 Island
1 Plains

The only part I don’t like about this deck is the way Call of the Conclave clashes with your control-the-board strategy. It may be better to play something like Azorius Charm in that spot or remove Terminus and Supreme Verdict for something more aggressive. Overall, I like this deck and what it is trying to do. It may be the best Thragtusk deck right now.

If you want to play a deck from this category, some other options include Jund Midrange/Control, Reanimator or straight GW Midrange. Each of these decks is a viable option with powerful support suites.

2. Play a deck that tries to beat Thragtusk

Initially, everyone thought that Zombies was the deck to beat and Thragtusk was a way to do that. Now, I think it is the opposite. Zombies is one way to try to beat the Thragtusk decks. After being hated out of the metagame, Zombie decks adapted by including Crippling Blight but that did not last long. With Restoration Angel making a comeback, that strategy is no longer as good.

The problem with Thragtusk is that it is difficult to interact with it. It honestly reminds me of Bloodbraid Elf. Both of those cards are difficult to play against because they have so much built-in value that they are worth much more than the one card you used to play them. For a control deck, trying to match a Thragtusk strategy with removal spells is nearly impossible. There are options, but they are slim.

Most Thragtusk decks can be fought with Tamiyo, the Moon Sage. Her ability to keep a permanent locked down will allow the control deck to put up a good fight. Then when they play another threat, Supreme Verdict can clear the board and let [card Tamiyo, the Moon Sage]Tamiyo[/card] lock down the 3/3 left behind. It’s possible that control decks want to explore Martial Law in addition to Tamiyo for more of this effect. The planeswalker plan does not always work because if you play against Jund, they typically have Dreadbore to clear the way.

My strategy is to play counterspells. They are basically the only removal spell that can answer Thragtusk, as well as many other threats, one-for-one.

In addition to racing with Zombies and countering all of their spells with UWR Midrange, there are other ways to combat this menace. Take a look.

G/W Humans by Brad Le Boeuf
1st place at SCG New Orleans

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Avacyns Pilgrim
4 Champion of the Parish
1 Fiend Hunter
3 Mayor of Avabruck
1 Riders of Gavony
4 Silverblade Paladin
1 Sublime Archangel
2 Wolfir Silverheart
1 Odric, Master Tactician
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons

Spells

4 Oblivion Ring
4 Rancor
1 Faiths Shield
2 Garruk Relentless
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter
2 Gather the Townsfolk

Lands

3 Cavern of Souls
2 Gavony Township
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Temple Garden
5 Forest
6 Plains

Sideboard

1 Angel of Glorys Rise
1 Armada Wurm
2 Knight of Glory
1 Riders of Gavony
2 Nevermore
1 Druids Deliverance
1 Faiths Shield
2 Purify the Grave
1 Ray of Revelation
1 Rootborn Defenses
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
1 Garruk, Primal Hunter

This G/W Humans deck does a great job of beating your opponent before they cast Thragtusk. Even though this strategy is similar to that of Zombies, being in green and white gives you more options right now to fight the metagame. One definite strength of this deck is Oblivion Ring. This removal spell will help in a lot of matchups but is especially good at removing planeswalkers.

I am not fond of the strange numbers for the cards included in the deck and I would work to minimize that. Champion of the Parish is great in this deck because most of the time it will be a one mana 3/3 due to Mayor of Avabruck and Gather the Townsfolk. More of both of those cards seems good to me as well. I really like the inclusion of Cavern of Souls for multiple reasons. Counters are are a real thing in the metagame and the additional fixing for your mana base is always helpful.

G/W Humans seems like a great way to attack the metagame right now but I think it could be even better than this version. The two cards I am working with offer similar effects. Both Wild Beastmaster and Champion of Lambholt punish an opponent who is relying on blocking to stabilize. I think both of these creatures do this much better than Riders of Gavony. Wild Beastmaster makes it so your opponent will have no profitable blocks while Champion of Lambholt just doesn’t allow your opponent to block at all. Either way, when you combine these creatures with the explosive power of Champion of the Parish and Silverblade Paladin, you get a very fast clock.

I will be working on the G/W Humans deck myself and trying to incorporate the two powerful three-drops. When you combine either of them with Wolfir Silverheart, your opponent is in for some bad beats.

Until Next Time,

Unleash whatever force will beat Thragtusk!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
(I'm active on twitter again, so send me a message sometime.)
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Draftcycling Reboot – Setting Up for Success

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So last week I introduced you all to my new goals for speculating in MTGO, and talked a bit about how to formulate goals. This week I begin my dive headfirst into my new focus, and there are a number of items to put in place before I hit the water. If my goal is to be drafting week in and week out and speculating to make that more affordable, I need each step of the way carefully planned so that I can do things as efficiently as possible.

Tickets, Please!

The economy of MTGO revolves around Event Tickets. These quasi-dollars function similarly to actual dollar bills on MTGO except they can’t be divided into pennies. Anyone who has dealt with bulk before in cardboard cards knows how quickly dimes and nickles add up. That being said, there isn’t really a mechanism to fill that void built into MTGO, but the users themselves have solved this problem over the years by employing Bots.

Tickets can be bought directly from the MTGO store, at $1 each, but for many foreign players, they are imposed an additional tax (as discussed in the comments last week). Further, players (and bots) also must find a way to convert excess tickets they’ve earned into cash. As a result, you can often buy tickets directly from other players in the vicinity of $0.95 each.

Finding a trade partner for this is not always easy. I often use twitter to poke my head around for people selling tickets. This is fairly safe because I can usually track that person down, at least if they are well connected on Twitter. Twitter can be my credit check, in those cases. Of course the fear is sending someone money on PayPal and then they just disappear on you. In theory, filing a claim on PayPal should resolve that.

A bot is simply a piece of software that controls an MTGO account and will trade products for tickets and vice-versa with customers. They are your ‘dealers’ of the MTGO community, making a small profit on each trade. These bots will hold credit for you if any fractional tickets are owed back to you as change, and you can use them at a later date. I’m sure there are some bad bots out there, but I’ve used tons of different bots over the years and I’ve never had a problem. As of now, my interaction with bots will be to obtain at least one draft set of RTR so I can start drafting.

Further, I’ve got to get some cards into my speculation portfolio, but I also have a smattering of essentially worthless unplayable cards (also some good ones I’d like to keep) sitting in my collection online that I’d like to clear out so that I can more efficiently manage my portfolio. To do this, I’ll want to scour for any cards that have value above bulk level, and then start bulking out the rest. The other important thing about Bots is because you slowly stash up pennies worth of "bot credit" its wise to re-use the same bot (as long as their pricing is consistent) so you're always able to use up that credit on the next sale. The buddylist feature is a good way to keep track of them.

Bulking out on MTGO is the only aspect of trading, buying or selling that is actually much more difficult on MTGO than it is in paper. The issue here is bulk commons/uncommons sell for tiny fractions of a ticket, so you’ll have to sell tons to get any actual value out of them. Further, trades on MTGO are limited to 75 cards at a time, and each trade does eat up a bit of time. So each time they’re only paying you a fraction of a ticket, and until you give them enough cards to make up the entire ticket you get nothing.

It’s hard to find good bulk buyers on MTGO, but they do exist. Often times they’ll advertise in the classifieds that they buy all commons, but once you enter the trade you find out that they only cherry pick decent Pauper playables. If you use search terms like “Bulk” or “All Cards” you can likely find something that will work. The rest is just time consuming. Be sure to make all the cards you want to dump tradable (and the ones you don’t untradable).

So Away we go!


This week I’ve just scratched the surface with my speculation, I bought 6 copies of Deathrite Shaman, and 8 copies of Nephalia Drownyard. In total, this cost me about $12. Deathrite Shaman I bought because I may try to build the Reanimator deck on line, and I thought at just over $2 was it a great price to get in.

Drownyard on the other hand I plan to take a little bit deeper. As it appears Jace-centric control decks are likely here to stay, I think the Drownyard could be a great tool to fight the mirror. On MTGO it’s under a nickle, and in paper they sit around a quarter. When Dimir comes around in Gatecrash we can expect mill to have some additional support as well, and a U/B control deck could be feasible in its own right.

Further, I’ll be firing off my first drafts of RTR and start coming up with a way to track what cards I have and need to build a Standard collection and set up a spreadsheet to track speculations. By this time next week I hope to have a handful of drafts under my belt as well as my portfolio organized and active.

Insider: Masters of Modern (and Nivmagus Elementals)

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Let me guess how you checked in coverage from the Pro Tour last weekend, which featured the Modern format.

 

Right?

While the Top 8 certainly matters, you have to remember that Pro Tours are a split format, so the Top 8 is sometimes a reflection of a person’s draft skills as much or moreso than their Modern skills.

Instead of focusing on just the Top 8, this page is what you need to pay attention to, along with this one. These pages give you the best picture of what performed well at the event, and figuring out which decks are primed to do well moving forward because how they performed as a whole is much more important than focusing on the one deck at the top. Especially, in this case, when that deck (Eggs) is a one-tournament deck that is very susceptible to hate. It’s also noteworthy that only three of the eight players playing the deck made it to Day 2.

Now let’s talk about Nivamagus Elemental, the other big “mover” of the weekend. As I talked about on the podcast this week (Brainstorm Brewery), hype does not equal investment. A few big name players were on the deck, and it looked fun and created cool stories by killing on Turn 2.

But Round 2 is not the time to buy in for a card that’s anything other than a bulk rare. You’re exposing yourself to a lot of risk jumping the Nivmagus bandwagon in Round 2 as the price is already going up. Sure, it’s possible the card hits and you did great, but as we saw this weekend you can also get screwed. As GerryT said, the deck lost to “hand disruption plus removal.” In other words, Jund, the most-played deck at the tournament.

Like I suggested with Huntmaster when I called it a few Pro Tours back, I did so with inside information from the PT (like Nivmagus), but we also didn’t advise you to go hard on it until we had 4-6 rounds of results from the Pro Tour from the group playing it. That was a move based on results, not hype. Remember the difference, even if it means your margins could be lower.

So what decks did well as a whole in Modern? Obviously, you should all just play Merfolk, but provided that’s not your style, here’s what we know.

This is a really interesting chart. Here, we see that Affinity actually had the best showing, despite the fact that it’s certainly not what you would guess. That said, nothing is going to move here (at least not from this event). In all honestly, there’s not a lot of surprises here, though we do see that Scapeshift made a pretty decent showing. Prismatic Omen, however, did not. If you haven’t already gotten out of it by selling into the hype (as I’ve always advised), then you should try to move it immediately.

But Scapeshift itself is probably pretty steady, so if you invested in that (or just Valakut), then you’re probably doing all right.

The big winner, financially, of the weekend is probably Jund. It only lost a few percentage points from Day 1 to Day 2, and it put several copies into the Top 8. That means the deck is primed to go up in price, right? Well, yes, in the short-to-medium term, something we’ll get into soon with Modern Masters, but you all know that. Instead, I want to highlight a few cards in Jund that aren’t quite as obvious but should make for good trade targets before Modern season rolls around.

Inquisition of Kozilek

This has to be one of the biggest. You can still occasionally get it for $2-3 in trade, and I have a huge pile that I’ve gotten at that price over the last year. This will likely be $5+ during the height of the PTQ season since so many non-Jund decks also play it.

Remember, with Shocklands coming to Standard the barrier of entry for the format is lower than ever, so medium-tier cards like these should see a nice spike.

Deathrite Shaman

We all said this was better in older formats than it was in Standard due to the fetchlands, and that appears to hold true. This Shaman does a ton of work. That said, I don’t love it at $10 since it’s going to be opened more and more in the next two months. Instead, the opportunity will come when people have forgotten to an extent about Modern as Gatecrash previews start rolling in. That also coincides with the start of Modern PTQ season and peak RtR supply, so it should create an opportunity.

Fulminator Mage

This has started to pop up more and more, and it’s the real deal (albeit usually out of the sideboard). While a deck like Living End uses it mostly for a full-out LD plan, it’s a sweet value card in Jund that hoses Tron and Valakut while also occasionally providing just some nice value along the way.

Raging Ravine

This is one of those cards that slips into the background, but it’s actually being played all over the place, and is occasionally even a 4-of in Jund builds. As I predicted a few weeks back, Scars lands, particularly Blackcleave Cliffs have taken off, so I’m not sure why Ravine is still $1.50 out of Worldwake. SCG has a ton in stock at that price, so I’m not ready to go deep on these or anything, but it’s probably not the worst card to target to close out a trade.

Mastering Modern

Okay, time to address the 800-pound Lhurgoyf in the room.

Modern Masters series.

This is a dead horse being beaten everywhere already, and I just wanted to throw my two cents into the ring (all the metaphors, right there). Mr. Forsythe (as @JasonEAlt tells me I must call him) went to great lengths to point out this was not the second coming of Chronicles, where Wizards reprinted basically everything worth any money. It led to the Reserve List, the root of all evil, and we know the rest of the story from there.

This is not Chronicles. This is a good thing. The print run on this is going to be so limited I don’t think it’s going to have a drastic effect, especially at higher rarities. I don’t have any hard numbers to back this up yet since we don’t know what the print run will be, but I imagine when it’s all said and done (accounting for new players entering the format), we’re going to see about a 20-25% drop for the Mythics, and probably a 30-35% drop for the good Rares. The Uncommons and commons will be closer to 40-50%, and I think this is perfect.

Yes, $100 Tarmogoyfs suck, but that’s not all the cost of the deck. Jund, in particular, is incredibly expensive, but Wizards can’t just blow up the secondary market. That means you can’t flood the market with Goyfs, but people aren’t going to be as upset if their Kitchen Finks halve in price. This keeps things reasonable as far as drop-offs in price are concerned, but a few dollars here and there on every card adds up very quickly when considering the full 75 in a deck.

In other words, I think Wizards has handled this perfectly. Yay! I also think it creates an opportunity. You can probably pick up Modern cards at a discount in the next month or two as people overestimate the impact on the set. This means you can likely score some great deals on Modern staples, and since the set doesn’t come out until next year you’re still going to be able to flip these at max value during the PTQ season.

And, most importantly, Zendikar isn’t included in Modern Masters! That means my gigantic stash of Misty Rainforests and Scalding Tarns are safe, so my new car fund is too 🙂

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

A Very Revealing Bant List

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We’re a full month out and this Standard format still feels wide open. As I’ve stated a thousand times, the mana is very good and the spells are very powerful. No matter how you want to battle, there are tools for you to battle with. There’s even a somewhat-legitimate combo deck in the form of Epic Experiment ramp!

When the format dictates that players can play whatever they want, I want to play the deck that draws the most cards. In this format, I want to play the Sphinx's Revelation deck. If all of the spells are good, then it stands to reason that you want to draw more of them, right? What’s better than playing Thragtusk? Playing Thragtusk, drawing three cards and gaining three life the next turn, playing another Thragtusk the turn after, then drawing five cards and gaining five life the turn after that. That’s what’s better than playing a Thragtusk.

This is what I have been battling in Standard lately:

Steve

spells

4 Thragtusk
4 Centaur Healer
4 Sphinxs Revelation
3 Detention Sphere
2 Cyclonic Rift
2 Angel of Serenity
1 Selesnya Charm
1 Snapcaster Mage
3 Dissipate
4 Restoration Angel
1 Negate
3 Think Twice
1 Supreme Verdict

lands

4 Hinterland Harbor
4 Temple Garden
4 Sunpetal Grove
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Hallowed Fountain
3 Forest
4 Island

This looks pretty different from the typical Bant lists out there. Where most Bant players opt to build Jace decks, I’ve instead elected to build a Thragtusk deck. In my mind there is no question that Thragtusk is the best card in Standard. It gives you exactly what you want against aggro (life and bodies) and exactly what you want against control (multiple bodies). Not to mention how insanely above curve it is…

But why no Jaces?

The newest version of Jace is a very peculiar card. When I first saw the spoiler I assumed that it would be good against slower decks and bad against aggressive decks. After seeing it in action a few times against Zombies it was clear that Jace was the real deal against aggressive decks. After seeing it in action against Thragtusk it was clear that Jace could not compete with the beastliest beast that ever did beast. Sure, a resolved Jace will generally at least replace himself, and that’s pretty okay, but we can do much better than pretty okay.

The first problem with Jace is that his ultimate might as well be blank. Even against decks where the +1 ability is good, it is unreasonable to sit around activating it for turns on end only to ultimate Jace and make… Diregraf Ghoul. Against decks where the +1 isn’t good, Jace only has one ability. The question then is how good is it to play a sorcery speed card that is worse than Concentrate some percentage of the time and better some other percentage?

If Thragtusk is as good as I say it is, which is obviously what I believe, then such a sorcery is going to be much worse than leaving up mana for Dissipate going into turn five. Additionally, as a draw spell this Concentrate-esque card pales in comparison to Sphinx's Revelation. As I said, Jace is strong against the aggressive decks, but the matchups where he’s weaker tend to go long. When games go long Sphinx's Revelations get bigger. In slow matchups card advantage is king. For these reasons I wouldn’t play the first Jace before I had the fourth Revelation, and at that point I don’t see much need for Jace.

Centaur Healer and Restoration Angel

I said a couple weeks ago that I was pretty down on Restoration Angel, and that was a foolish thing for me to say. While it’s true that the card isn’t close to as good as it once was, it is still a far cry from unplayable. It has a body that blocks extremely well against most of the aggressive decks (basically all of the non GW-smashy-smash aggressive decks), all the while blinking a creature that gains life. Additionally, flash threats are nothing to scoff at in control mirrors.

Centaur Healer is a card that has performed considerably above my expectations. The idea behind playing them is clearly to beat up on aggressive decks, but they carry themselves pretty well against slower decks as well. Having a high density of creatures which attack for three or more damage makes combatting opposing Planeswalkers a joke. Tamiyo can be a problem if all you have is a lone Thragtusk, but adding another monster to the mix makes racing a Tamiyo ultimate a pretty easy game.

The Counter Suite

There are quite a few options for counters in Standard right now. I’ve seen Syncopate getting a lot of love, and I think that it’s the exact wrong card for the job. Two weeks ago I wrote about the importance of cards that scale well, and Syncopate just gets worse and worse as games progress. This is particularly true in decks like this that are trying to cast large Sphinx's Revelations. Sometimes you need to leave up mana for a counterspell or two while doing so and it is borderline impossible to fight a counterwar with Syncopate. Further, there is basically nothing on turn two that is so important that it must be countered, so why does having a two mana catch-all counterspell matter at all?

The absence of Essence Scatter, especially considering the presence of one Negate is probably more notable than the absence of Syncopate, especially operating under the assumption that Thragtusk is strongest there is. The reason for this is that Thragtusk and spells that cost more than Thragtusk are the only creatures that a deck full of life gain actually needs to counter. Additionally, I'm already playing the best answer to Thragtusk- my own Thragtusks.

Alternatively, there are a few very strong non-creature spells that often must be countered. Off the top of my head Rakdos's Return, opposing Sphinx's Revelations and Epic Experiment are pretty tough to beat when resolved. There are also some situations where your creatures don’t quite cut it against Planeswalkers, so having counters for them is nice. Sorin in particular can be pretty tough to attack into.

The misers Negate over the fourth Dissipate is mostly a concession to control mirrors. In a counterwar mana-efficiency, particularly costing less blue mana, is often important. So there’s that. It’s not a very dramatic difference and either card is probably fine, but I’ve been happy with the maindeck Negate. Sometimes it even catches a Rancor.

Where are all the Azorius Charms?

I’ve already discussed my qualms with Azorius Charm on “Good Luck; High Five!” and for the most part I believe that Think Twice is just better. That said, I’ve lost a couple matches to Loxodon Smiter decks recently, and having a card like this to buy time against them is probably pretty good. Against literally any other deck though I don’t want to be anywhere near Azorius Charm. Mostly it just replaces itself, which is by no means what I look for in a card. If Green/White Big Dumb Elephants is popular in your area then I would begrudgingly play some Charms. For the most part I’d just hope that my opponents are playing cooler decks.

Not a lot of Wraths in this pile. What’s the deal?

I’ll start by saying that having Terminus in my deck has only ever made me miserable. At six mana, having it in your opener is very close to a mulligan. Once you have access to that much mana you’re probably beating aggressive decks with any of your spells. When it’s not in your opener you’re hoping to peel it exactly when you need it. I’m much more interested in consistency than raw power.

The number of Supreme Verdict is, perhaps, one or two off. Against decks like mono-red and Zombies the creature-base does a great deal of work at stopping them, but as I said above Loxodon Smiter is a big game. Having an extra Wrath or two might just be necessary to hedge against Little Kid Stompy. I definitely like that call more than having Azorius Charm. I’m not entirely certain what I’d cut for them, but one of the counterspells or even moving the second Angel of Serenity to the sideboard wouldn’t be the worst.

So why should I play this deck?

Thragtusk and Sphinx's Revelation are the most powerful cards in the format. In terms of actual individual impact they don’t hit as hard as Angel of Serenity or Griselbrand, but building a deck around them to play into the long game allows you to beat the Griselbrand/Angel decks.

This deck matches up very favorably against Jund and the other Bant lists out there. Epic Experiment decks are practically a bye. Monored and Zombies are very beatable, though I recommend having a good amount of cards in your sideboard dedicated to beating them. While your spells all are bigger than theirs and your cards just invalidate theirs as you enter the late game you do still need to stop them from killing you before that happens.

The only especially bad matchup that I’ve run into has been Green/White aggro. A three mana 4/4 hitting you with a Rancor on turn three or four is pretty impressive. Silverblade Paladin is also a hell of a card. If this deck becomes especially popular, then this list will need to change to combat it, but with just the one bad matchup I’m very happy with where the deck is right now.

Questions? Comments? Complaints? Hit me up in the comment section!

Until next time, good luck, high five!

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Return to Ravnica Draft #2

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Zach Mcnair sits in on a skype call as David Conrad plays through another RTR 8-4

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Conrad

David Conrad has been playing magic since the "Modern"era began in Mirrodin. Graduating from Indiana University Bloomington with a bachelor's of Journalism, he plays regularly and devours as much Magic media as possible.

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Jason’s Archives: Escape from Philadelphia

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Greetings, Speculators!

In true dramatic fashion, we drove across the bridge out of Philadelphia less than an hour before it was closed due to winds from Hurricane Sandy.

This is the Story of the Hurricane

The aforementioned windstorm has the Eastern coast of the United States in its sights and appears capable of dealing some damage even to lands and non-fliers. Unfortunately for all in attendance, Philadelphia is also on the Eastern coast of the United States and Sandy showed up a day early. Monday flights cleverly changed to Sunday flights weren't safe from her wrath and high winds shut down automobile traffic.

On Sunday afternoon it appeared we faced a clear choice; get out of dodge or spend up to a week in the city of brotherly love. For us this decision would be determined by the only player in our group, who was a lock for day two unless he lost both of the next two rounds. "Challenge accepted!" he shouted, charging into battle with a sealed deck that contained Sphinx of the Chimes, Armada Wurm and Angel of Serenity. Naturally, he lost both of his win-and-in rounds, bubbled out and just like that we could leave whenever we wanted.

Sunday afternoon at around 3:00 we loaded the car and bid adieu to the city where they shot that one movie with Tom Hanks. You know, the one where he's the Philadelphia lawyer and the law firm fires him so he searches all over Philadelphia for an ambulance chaser who will represent him and then he dies... Johnathan Demme won a best director Oscar... it will come to me.

Left Behind

The twitterverse was excited by how stacked the Top 8 ended up.

If it looks nuts, it's only because it is. So much Platinum! However, not to diminish the accomplishments of these fine gentlemen, the storm was a factor. Many players who were locks for Day 2 opted to bail on the event citing concern with flights or driving arrangements in anticipation of Sandy. After all, if you have to be at work on Monday, you might not want to be trapped in Philadelphia, the home alike of the Liberty Bell and the developed world's most urine-stenched subway system (seriously, what is up with their subway cars? I actually hope Sandy floods those tunnels just to give those roving urinals a flush).

Do you know who doesn't care about all that so much? That's right, a Magic pro. They were likely already planning to stay on a few days or fly off somewhere to prepare for the next event, so the prospect of being trapped in Philly with all of their Magic pro friends wasn't the scariest. It's possible that a few of the pros who top-eighted beat out someone else with better tiebreakers at their respective records and 9-to-5 jobs out of Sandy's disaster radius.

Of course any one of those players could have easily top-eighted on any given Sunday. But there may have been some mitigating factors involved in all of them hitting on the same weekend, something to note before we all take to the internet raving about the "most stacked Top 8 in the history of ever."

The Two Possibilities for Pack Rat

Either Pack Rat has to be playable in Standard or this is the biggest differential between a card's Limited and Standard playability in the history of the game. I kid not, some joker opened a pool with three copies of Pack Rat and his instinct was to add two Stab Wound, thirty-five swamps and jimmy jam a deck with more Pack Rat than the original cast of Ocean's 11. Rumor has it that he went 10-0 day one.

Pack Rat has always looked nuts and super playable with a ton of casual appeal. Brainstorm Brewery called this a pickup recently (to the best I can recollect without re-listening to an hour-long podcast I participated in), and I have fond memories of attacking for 64 in a game of 2HG in which I went "turn 2 Pack Rat" and then turned the rest of my hand into beatings.

One thing that may affect the ability to port these voracious vermin directly to constructed formats is the sheer volume of removal that can deal with them easily. In Limited, an opponent may get a Detention Sphere, Supreme Verdict or Cyclonic Rift if they are lucky. In Constructed, they could potentially run four of each. Rat is much more of a beating when 90% of the removal is unreliable and 1-for-1.

Some have had success with a build that runs Rat alongside Parallel Lives, which I find hilarious. An object lesson in exponents, this deck can easily overwhelm an underprepared opponent much quicker than they'd imagined. It's also fun to play and isn't stupid #$%^ing Jund, which really appeals to me.

When a card is oppressive enough in Limited to be serviceable alongside 39 swamps, my instinct says it can't be totally unplayable in Constructed and its low price tag makes it a decent spec opportunity. Would you trust me more or less if I told you how many copies I picked up this week? Well, tough, I'm not gonna. I can't predict where this card will go pricewise. All I know is that this was by far the defining card of GP Philly and you can draw your own conclusions. I'm not a finance writer anyway; what the hell do I know?

Irony Time

Nothing is funnier to me than the fact that the Magic Players who opted not to go to Philadelphia and instead went to New Orleans were the ones who managed to escape the flooding this weekend.

Top 16 SCG 'Nawlins Decks

Blame Kibler, I say. The word "midrange" gets tossed around here like the word "epic" on the internet. These days everything is "midrange," defined as "a deck with Thragtusk and no planeswalkers." Three Jund decks cracked the Top 8, although they finished worse than the one Bant Control deck. But with such a small sample size, I'd be silly to draw any immediate conclusions.

Alex Park jammed Thundermaw Hellkite in his U/W/R deck which opts to play creatures over fickle miracles. While I dismissed the original U/W/R deck of the season as a flash-in-the-pan metagame deck for a metagame that doesn't exist anymore (ctrl+F for "zombies" if you don't believe me), the shell was solid and players are beginning to adjust the numbers for the right mix. I was happy to get real money for Gravecrawler and Lotleth Troll this weekened. I kept enough of them to play in Legacy and Modern and outed the rest, operating under the pretense that I'll play constructed some day (I'm not even sure this facade is fooling me anymore). I don't know if they'll tank, but I know they're not likely to go up. I bought low, so it's time to sell high.

You know what else is low? Mayor of Avabruck. The Mayor is getting no love lately, but that may change after Brad LeBoeuf and his G/W Humans deck stomped the competition in Nouvelle Orleans. I like the Nevermore in his board as that card is a house in a format where the control decks don't run counterspells. I recommend naming "Detention Sphere" if they have them lest you lose a lot of Nevermores in one fell swoop.

Chris Harris' Mono Red was clearly the most interesting deck of the event and his list merits scrutiny. Mostly comprised of creatures, none of which are Vexing Devil, this list looks hilarious to play. Archwing Dragon seems great in this format, and with a low number of burn spells, you'll likely not miss the mana you spend re-upping every turn.

Great job, Top 16.

Legacy Top 16, Same Location

Would it seem odd if I skipped the top three decks and talked about Zombardment right away? Deathrite Shaman was made for this deck, and it's so good here that you can rationalize the green splash by running an Abrupt Decay. I love how this deck continues to evolve. Nothing is dirtier to me than turn one Faithless Looting dumping two Bloodghasts and/or Gravecrawlers to set up a very nice turn two. This may replace Nic Fit as the best Cabal Therapy deck in Legacy. Great job, Scott Tompkins.

Chi Hoi Yim laughs at your pathetic Abrupt Decay and wins the event with Counterbalance anyway. Apparently this is still a deck. Adding Detention Sphere seems like a good update to the deck. Rest in Peace also seems fine.

Tyler Arceneaux keeps the dream alive with another Top 8 from Angel Stompy, which I like. This list is very similar to the last one to Top 8, but that's fine with me. This deck will continue to evolve a bit and I love watching a new archetype emerge.

The most interesting deck besides that is Dustin Buckingham's decision to solve the question of "When should U/R Delver board in the StifleNought package?" by maindecking it. Stifle is a good enough utility card not to feel like a narrow combo piece, and you're liable to steal games from opponents who didn't expect a [card Phyrexian Dreadnought]12/12[/card] out of Delver.

Two RUG Delver decks and two U/W Control decks made up half of a Top 8 with six unique archetypes. Legacy continues to evolve new decks, including one I'm working on myself. Here's a hint -- it beats Zombardment because it maindecks a card Counterbalance ran in the board.

Stay Dry Out There

That does it for me, gang. Tune in next week!

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