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Now that we’re heading towards mid-July, I am fairly confident the Magic market is finally calming down. Most buylists on Reserved List staples like dual lands, Lion's Eye Diamond, and the like have flattened, or in some cases tapered a bit. After feeling pressured to acquire my favorite cards before seeing them disappear from the market, I’ve taken this opportunity to become a net seller.
Even some of the chase Reserved List cards, which were once all anyone wanted to get their hands on, have finally calmed down. Card Kingdom’s buylist pricing fluctuates daily and I’ve taken note of the drop in prices on cards like Nether Void, Jihad, and City of Brass. With few exceptions, we’re finally seeing the buying slow down.
But just because the trend of 2018 is on pause doesn’t mean the entire market is soft. In fact, there are still some real pockets of strength. I talked about one of them last week when I covered Collectors’ Edition and Alpha/Beta/Unlimited. But the reality is the strength goes beyond just Magic’s first few sets. This week I’ll highlight some other recent trends, and more importantly, which ones are worth pursuing.
Reserved List Bottom Feeding
I talk on this subject often, so I won’t dwell on it long here. But the reality is, people are still targeting anything and everything on the Reserved List no matter how little play the cards see. Lately we’ve seen Energy Vortex, Polar Kraken, and Dominating Licid all take off in price. They aren’t going to make anyone millions, but finding a couple copies in a bulk box and randomly making a few bucks is a pleasant surprise.
Not long ago I had picked up a smattering of cheaper copies of cards that fit this category. As buylists on them move up over a buck, I set these aside to ship with my next order. They’re not worth selling on their own because I don’t own enough copies to justify shipping only these. But in combination with other stuff I have enjoyed modest gains from these otherwise useless cards.
My advice would be to follow suit. If you’re in this for the long haul and believe every Reserved List card will one day be worth more than five bucks, you’re welcome to hold. But if a card like Energy Vortex is going to hit $5 on buylists, then that likely means more useful cards will be worth far more.
Wouldn’t you rather own the more useful cards in this situation? That’s why I’m selling these as they spike—to get cards I actually want, which have just as much upside.
Legacy Speculation
The most recent banned and restricted announcement impacted only one format: Legacy. Some people claim Wizards doesn’t care about Legacy. I think this is a fallacy. If they didn’t care about Legacy, they wouldn’t host team Grands Prix with Legacy as one of the formats, they wouldn’t showcase Legacy at a Pro Tour as they are this year, and they certainly wouldn’t monitor the format metrics enough to make justified bannings.
With the removal of Deathrite Shaman and Gitaxian Probe from the format, people are once again excited about how the metagame will evolve. And as players test, speculators buy. We’re seeing this speculative buying in a couple places.
Most recently, Goblin Lackey spiked on speculation that Goblins will return to Legacy’s forefront. The deck had a very tough time getting through so many turn-one Deathrite Shamans, but now with that out of the picture Lackey may once again prove its utility. Council's Judgment is up 11% on the week—perhaps this is also due to Legacy speculation.
Arjen of MTGStocks recently highlighted a decklist that used Council's Judgment in its sideboard. That same list also played two Brightling, which could be why that card has shot up lately. He mentioned a couple other noteworthy price changes based on Legacy speculation. Namely, Karakas and Tropical Island (the latter is bucking the flattening trend of duals).
In terms of how I feel about these moves, I generally base my sentiment on how fast these cards are moving. When I see buyouts (e.g. Goblin Lackey) I’d be inclined to sell into the hype. But as the metagame gradually shifts there will be some cards that benefit. When I see slow movement, such as with Karakas or Council's Judgment, I’d be tempted to buy/hold.
Just be careful because the forces that are driving the market’s summer slowdown will be competing with upward pressure from Legacy metagame shifts. And the reality is things move more slowly in Legacy, so you may have to wait a while for your purchases to appreciate. The only major catalyst on the horizon is the upcoming Pro Tour where Legacy will be played. If you can predict which cards will shine there, you should be able to make some money quickly. Otherwise you may have to wait a while.
Original Elder Dragon Legends
I suspect the revamped Elder Dragon Legends could be catalyzing interest in the originals. As a result, these have moved modestly in price over the past week. It’s interesting to note that while the average listing on TCGplayer isn’t moving as much, the “market price” reveals that people are buying at higher prices. Here are the market price shifts since June 1st:
- Chromium: $25 to $28
- Arcades Sabboth: $22 to $25
- Nicol Bolas: $78 to $86
- Vaevictis Asmadi: $17 (no change)
- Palladia-Mors: $19 to $21
In general these had already been rising throughout the year, but I do wonder if their reappearance is driving newfound interest. Will Commander players build decks with the new versions and add the originals? The originals aren’t exactly great to play with, but perhaps the flavor is strong enough that casual players will go for it.
In the end it probably doesn’t matter much. All the multi-color Legends creatures are on the rise and they haven’t cooled off yet like the rest of the market. In fact I’m noticing the most desirable creatures like Angus Mackenzie and Rasputin Dreamweaver are buylisting for record highs recently.
I know some people are expressing interest in Old School Commander as a format, but I can’t imagine the demand profile from this population is all that robust. Still, it only takes a few people to get onboard to influence market prices. I’m not going to sell any of my Legends creatures at this time but I’m not going out of my way to buy more either.
Battlebond Foils
Word on the street is, not a lot of Battlebond is getting opened going forward. Therefore, we shouldn’t expect an influx in supply of rare and mythic rare foils. This could mean opportunity to speculate, but the problem is everyone already knows this. The hype started with Najeela, the Blade-Blossom foils, but since then it seems like any playable Battlebond foil could be a viable target.
MTG finance writers and podcasters are recommending Battlebond cards left and right, and this is going to drive upward price adjustments more quickly. My advice here may leave some folks wanting, but I have to be honest with everyone—I’m not an expert on newer cards. I’m confident there will be more Battlebond foil buyouts, but I can’t even pretend to know the best candidates.
I’d suggest following the market on these closely, using TCGplayer to locate the foils with the lowest stock. Spread out your purchases to increase the odds you get into a card before a buyout occurs—especially if there are cards you actually want for your collection. From there, listen to finance podcasts and read articles on this subject, because the foils that get the most attention will likely jump first.
You can also use EDH REC numbers to determine the cards that see the most play. For now Najeela is very popular, but that could always evolve over time. Stunning Reversal’s effect seems pretty cool, perhaps it gains some traction. Or how about Bramble Sovereign, which has the makings of a popular EDH card due to its synergy with Doubling Season.
I don’t know what people will target next, but I can guarantee that other Battlebond foils will be targeted. Net, I’d recommend dabbling strategically based on market movement, popular opinion, and EDH REC data over time. However going deep on a single card may be reckless because finding buyers of these foils after they’ve spiked may be tricky in the short term.
Wrapping It Up
As I mentioned last week, the MTG market has softened a bit as we’ve entered summer. This has manifested itself in numerous ways. Most notably, buylists have finally tapered off even on the most desirable cards. Dual lands were sold out everywhere for a while, but now vendors are restocked and they will compete to move inventory.
Despite these inevitable pullbacks, some pockets of the market remain hot. Last week I touched on the area I have been watching most closely: Collectors’ Edition, Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited. However there are other sectors that may interest you even more.
Battlebond foils are in short supply and are certainly worth paying attention to; especially if there are certain cards you are interested in acquiring. The original Elder Dragon Legends could get a boost thanks to the attention they’re getting from being reintroduced in a new form. Legacy was recently shaken up, and speculators are attempting to predict how the metagame will shift. And, as always, random Reserved List cards continue to get bought out.
Some of these trends are worth trying to get in front of with some speculation. However, if prices move too quickly, I become skeptical of a buyout’s sustainability. For example, I would much rather buy Karakas to speculate on Legacy rather than chase the recent spike in Goblin Lackey.
Just be careful—if your target doesn’t get the attention of the hive mind that is MTG finance, then you may be sitting on these cards for a while. And given the summer slowdown is in full force, it could be a few months before you have a chance to turn some profit.
…
Sigbits
- This week I want to cover some buylist drops on Card Kingdom’s site to highlight recent downward trends. First, there’s Underground Sea. At one point this dual land came off Card Kingdom’s hotlist altogether, though it has since returned. Despite its return, the buylist on Underground Sea is all the way down to $480 after being near $600 at its peak. Some duals are following suit, such as Plateau. However Badlands and Tropical Island buy prices remain robust.
- Lion's Eye Diamond’s buy price at Card Kingdom was $170 for quite some time. It would occasionally jump to $200, but only briefly. Now it has ticked down to $160. Is this a reflection of more selling due to the Legacy bannings? Unlikely. Perhaps the demand for this Reserved List staple has finally cooled off.
- Many Arabian Nights cards remain high on Card Kingdom’s buylist. It appears the summer slowdown hasn’t hit these quite so hard. That said, all the Pauper hype around Oubliette has died down. Buylist on this one approached $30 at one point, but is now back down to $20. Perhaps it’ll bounce again in the future, but for now the card appears to be dead money.


On to my take: I feel that Faithless Looting essentially
A novel take on WR Prison, Nicksnack's WR Planeswalkers focuses more intently on the deck's planeswalker aspect. Chalice of the Void is notably absent from the deck, despite the continued omission of one-drops. Big additions here include Cast Out, a flexible removal option; Urza's Ruinous Blast, a one-sided exiling Oblivion Stone; and Glorious End, the deck's most intriguing card.
Murmurs of a more counters-based Affinity deck
This deck
Also making its Modern debut is Standard scourge Goblin Chainwhirler, which shines at dealing with enemy creatures that can slide under a Bridge, but without killing its controller's own small creatures. Those are pumped out by Goblin Rabblemaster and even Siege-Gang Commander, a late-game bomb that joins Hazoret in providing repeated reach under Bridge.
I wonder if this deck will try to adopt Sarkhan, Fireblood. I've been loving the card in GRx Moon, where it admittedly also fills the 'yard for Tarmogoyf; still, there are plenty of great discards in this build, including the rituals that power out those redundant lock pieces in the first place.

You can see that the original printing from Tempest (TMP) commands a premium over the other versions, but every version has risen in price over the last week. I think this is a good signal that further gains are anticipated in the short term as Legacy players adjust to the new format. Players who have been considering adding Wastelands into their collection should feel safe in doing so and speculators can also consider buying in. Watch out for taking a large position though as prices can adjust very quickly in a thinner market like Legacy and buy sell spreads are often larger.











brought in to accomplish that job actually does that job. It's not enough to have cards that are theoretically good in a matchup. Sideboard cards need to actually, and substantially, disrupt the opposing gameplan or protect/advance your own gameplan given the opposing strategy.
Consider Rest in Peace, a classic sideboard card. When it hits the board, Rest takes away both players' graveyard. This is a fundamental change to the game and ensures an impactful play. But does it mean anything? That is entirely contextual. Obviously this is backbreaking against Dredge and meaningless against Humans, but it gets murky in between those extremes.
I want each card to answer yes to as many of these rules as possible, but it isn't necessary to have more than two if that yes is strong enough. This is because the only one that is immovable is #7. Sideboard cards need to harm the opponent more than you, and preferably only your opponent. If I'm getting hit by my own card, it had better be because I really need that effect and there aren't other options, or because I can mitigate the impact. I've run Blood Moon in Jeskai before because I couldn't beat Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle decks otherwise. I did get hurt, and sometimes severely, but by planning ahead and compulsively fetching basics, I made it work. It wasn't optimal, but nothing else worked and sometimes that's as good as it gets.
One complication is that Magic is a game between two players. I am thinking about how my deck interacts with my opponent and how to sideboard against them, and so are they.
Amulet of Safekeeping -Â Probably the most talked about card, Amulet of Safekeeping is clearly designed to answer Storm. The first ability Mana Tithes anything that targets you (meaning Grapeshot) and the second blanks 1/1 tokens (meaning Empty the Warrens).On paper that is fine, but Amulet only protects against Storm's win conditions. Storm is still free to combo off, during which it can tutor for an answer with Gifts Ungiven and win anyway. Thus, the card doesn't actually disrupt Storm's gameplan nor protect you from Storm. As an answer to Mardu Pyromancer, Amulet may seem more promising, but Mardu can easily pay the tax or use Kolaghan's Command. Because it doesn't actually accomplish its stated goal, Amulet is not a good sideboard card.
Infernal Reckoning -Â While I would have appreciated this card two years ago, these days Infernal Reckoning is not a good sideboard card. It answers any Eldrazi at a very good rate, but that's all. It doesn't really cripple or disrupt the strategy, and one-for-one trades aren't exciting as sideboard cards. There's a reason control decks side in sweepers instead of Terminate against creature decks. Swords to Plowshares is a very good card, but there's no reason to only have it in the sideboard. If Eldrazi Tron was more prevalent, I could see an argument for Reckoning. As is, it's too narrow and low impact to be justified.
Shield Mare -Â On the other hand, I could see myself boarding in Shield Mare against Burn in the right deck. While not the most potent hate card, Mare does substantially disrupt the opponent and/or protect against Burn's gameplan, depending on how you evaluate lifegain. Mare also trades for an entire burn spell when it enters and happily blocks all Burn's creatures. Atarka's Command sees no play anymore, so the only way to kill Mare without triggering her is via prowess triggers on Monastery Swiftspear. Kor Firewalker may do that more cheaply, but it has the weakness of Path to Exile killing it for no value, whereas Mare still gains life when targeted. I'd certainly try Mare in Death & Taxes.





