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The Goblins Are Coming

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Modern decks may fade away or rotate, but they never really die. They linger on in the hearts of adherents and their competitive records. Every time a card that might make the old deck return to glory is printed, you can bet the resurrection machine will be rolled out again. This time it's Goblins's turn, and it might actually work.

Goblins: A History

Goblins have been a part of Magic since the beginning, but they only really became respected during Onslaught block. Before then, they primarily served as staple early drops in Sligh and descendant red decks. Those decks played a lot of goblins, but lacked the tribal synergies of decks like Rebels. Once the first true tribal block was finished, however, Goblins became the best tribe in Magic. It had everything: fast mana, powerful threats, an amazing lategame, card advantage, removal, and a combo kill. Nothing else came close, and it would take the coming of Affinity to challenge the red menace.

Starting with Standard

In Standard, the general plan of blitzing opponents with cheap creatures was usurped by Patriarch's Bidding. The sorcery was used either as simple card advantage or to re-flood the board, and combined with Goblin Warchief to produce a surprise alpha strike. The real power came when players combined Bidding with Goblin Sharpshooter and a sacrifice outlet. Sacrificing goblins produced untap triggers for Sharpshooter, and Bidding ensured the deck always had enough to kill opponents outright. This powerful clock combined with a combo kill meant that Goblin Bidding remained a force in Standard until Kamigawa forced it out. Olivier Ruel even won French Nationals in 2004 with the deck despite Ravager Affinity's emergence.

Into Extended

Unsurprisingly, Goblins was also very good with a wider cardpool. The first banning I remember hearing about as a competitive player was Goblin Lackey's in Extended. Apparently, a turn two Siege-Gang Commander is unhealthy. Despite the nerf, Goblins continued to be a threat thanks to non-Onslaught goblin all-stars Goblin Ringleader and Goblin Matron. Matron found whatever the deck needed, and Ringleader obviated the need for Bidding while contributing to the overall theme. This more streamlined aggro deck proved a force until Ringleader rotated.

However, the deck's greatest success came when it stopped being a dedicated aggro deck and embraced the combo aspect. It turns out that drawing cards is great for combos, and it was only a matter of time before someone figured out that Fecundity was a natural fit for Sharpshooter combo. Named because the 2006 Worlds coverage team couldn't describe what they were seeing normally and instead compared it to a monkey washing a cat, Dirty Kitty was a mashup of Goblins and Storm that looks a lot more disjoined than it actually is.

Dirty Kitty, Worlds 2006

Creatures

1 Goblin Sledder
4 Skirk Prospector
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Mogg War Marshal
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Warchief
1 Goblin Sharpshooter

Instants

2 Brightstone Ritual
4 Seething Song

Sorceries

4 Rite of Flame
4 Empty the Warrens
1 Grapeshot

Enchantments

4 Fecundity

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Stomping Grounds
1 Blood Crypt
6 Mountains

Sideboard

4 Clickslither
4 Cabal Therapy
2 Pyroclasm
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Krosan Grip
1 Goblin King

Dirty Kitty could play out like a normal aggro deck. It could Storm off like a normal Storm deck. What it wanted to do was partially Storm off with Empty the Warrens so it could turn the tokens into more cards and mana with Fecundity and Skirk Prospector until it found Grapeshot, or Sharpshooter and Warchief, and just won. It was weird, but I loved watching this crazy pile just work.

The Legacy

Combo Goblins were never really a thing in Legacy as far as I know. Instead, it's been a midrange beatdown deck, wielding the card advantage of Goblin Ringleader and Goblin Matron to buff an assault, or as the means to an end for another combo. There was a brief time when Goblin Lackey was the most fearsome card in Legacy. Then, Goblin Recruiter was banned, and the Food Chain combo it enabled stopped being busted. Food Chain still exists as a deck but now it uses Misthollow Griffin instead of chaining goblins.

Next, Cavern of Souls was printed, and Goblins was briefly good again before seemingly fading away. I found this odd because it was impossible for Miracles to outgrind Goblins. Terminus is just a speed bump to Goblins, since Goblin Matron just finds the Ringleader and shuffles all the other goblins back into circulation. Against Grenzo, Dungeon Warden, Terminus was actively bad. The problem wasn't Miracles, then, but everything else; Deathrite Shaman sneers at Goblin Lackey, and Goblins struggles to beat fast combo decks.

The Modern Era

Despite this impressive pedigree, Goblins have never really been a factor in Modern. Not for lack of interest or trying, but the parts weren't there. Onslaught is not Modern-legal, nor are Matron and Ringleader. Goblin Guide is a Modern staple, but the tribe has little else. Since Onslaught, Wizards was far more frugal with their gifts, and there just hasn't been much to recommend Goblins over Merfolk or Elves. Tribal merfolk has cheaper lords, while Elves has fast mana for explosive kills.

Goblins has tried to carve out a niche for itself through fast kills with Goblin Bushwhacker, Reckless Bushwhacker, and Goblin Grenade. The problem there is that the deck is inconsistent and the payoff is weak. I've been on the receiving end of some overwhelming 8-Whack victories, but a lot more of them are resounding 8-Whack defeats as the deck is mainly 1/1's for one. There's never been a good enough payoff to justify playing 8-Whack over Affinity.

Dominaria Arrives

Dominaria threatens to upend Goblins. Goblin Warchief and Skirk Prospector, two keys to the old decks, are back. They follow the return of Goblin Piledriver, which despite some hype failed, to return Goblins to prominence. That said, it's still not clear that anything has changed. Sharpshooter, Matron, and Ringleader are still illegal, and were the main reason to play the deck in Extended and Legacy. The lack of Matron and Ringleader does really hurt, but there is one advantage: the old combo kill was clunky and complicated, while Modern has a far more straightforward one.

Three cards, arbitrarily large amounts of mana, and damage. As a bonus, it's harder to mess up this combo than it is the old iteration. All you have to do is demonstrate the loop; the old versions forced pilots to go through all the motions and check for a fizzle. Ask a KCI Combo player; the greatest enemy of that sort of combo is inattention.

The other positive is that this combo slots in nicely with the rest of this hypothetical new Goblins deck. Mimic is the two mana lord goblins never had, Redcap is reach, and Prospector can turn Mogg War Marshal into Pyretic Ritual. None of these are bad default modes.

New Goblins

Creatures

4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Skirk Prospector
4 Goblin Guide
4 Legion Loyalist
4 Mogg War Marshal
4 Metallic Mimic
4 Goblin King
4 Goblin Chieftan
2 Murderous Redcap

Instants

3 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

3 Goblin Grenade

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Cavern of Souls
8 Mountain

Goblin Chieftain makes Warchief unnecessary. The deck is mainly one drops, so the cost reduction is wasted, while +1/+1 is very good. The deck is capable of blistering starts, especially with Prospector, though it's not as fast as 8-Whack's best.

Filthy Resurrection

The reprints also make a new Dirty Kitty deck plausible. The lack of Matron hurts a lot more here, but far worse is the loss of the good fast mana of previous incarnations. It's almost like Wizards has learned that rituals are dangerous. Warchief is better than the other three-drops in this combo-oriented deck, where saving on mana is more important.

Dirty Kitty 2.0

Creatures

4 Mogg War Marshal
4 Skirk Prospector
4 Goblin Piledriver
4 Metallic Mimic
4 Goblin Warchief
2 Murderous Redcap

Instants

4 Pyretic Ritual
4 Desperate Ritual
2 Manamorphose

Sorceries

4 Empty the Warrens
1 Grapeshot

Enchantments

4 Fecundity

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
4 Wooded Foothills
4 Arid Mesa
4 Stomping Ground
3 Mountain

With the right draw, this deck kills on turn three. With an insane draw, turn two is possible. The fact that the new combo synergizes naturally with the backup agro plan, and Mimic has huge value with Empty the Warrens, is a huge bonus.

Reality Check

As I walked into Black Gold for FNM last week I overheard Paul, the local Goblins expert, discussing the reprints. You've met Paul before—he's the 8-Whack player from the greatest bad-beat story ever and a Goblins player to the bone. When asked about Goblin Warchief, his exact response was, "Why? It's a three-drop. That slot is set and it's not
changing." Goblins already plays Goblin King and Goblin Chieftain, so why play another three-drop that doesn't boost your team?

I then asked him if Skirk Prospector changed his mind, and he was confused. Again, why would he need to turn his goblins into mana? They all cost one and his deck is about critical mass. I then explained the combo with Mimic and Redcap, to which he said "Oh!" Then his face lit up and he wandered off.

I was worried that I'd created a monster until a round later when he came back said that it wasn't good enough. His argument is that Goblins doesn't have Collected Company or any other tool to actually find the combo, so it will never be consistent enough. He'd tried to fit Company into Goblins once before and it didn't work without mana dorks. Current versions of Goblins are built to blitz the opponent, so planning for the late game just isn't smart. Also, a turn three kill is already possible for Goblins, and is no more consistent than the Fecundity kill I mentioned. To him, combo Goblins isn't worthwhile.

Trying it Out

While I'm not willing to be so dismissive, Paul does have a point. I've been goldfishing both decks and comparing it to a mainstream 8-Whack deck, and the kill speed is comparable. It will reliably kill more often, but not any faster. The first version doesn't combo very often; it has no way to draw extra cards or tutor for the combo. Additionally, Metalic Mimic makes a turn four kill more likely, especially into three one drops followed by Goblin King. That makes the combo unnecessary most games, but not unwelcome. Normally, these deck have to pray for Goblin Grenade to close out stalled games. The combo provides an alternative way to win out of nowhere.

To its credit, ours is the sort of combo that makes opponents paranoid. Much like Melira combos, with a piece or two on the field, opponents will never really feel safe. In test games against Jund, my opponent felt compelled to use real cards against Prospector to make sure he wasn't just dead. My opponent admitted that he may have done it anyway to make sure he didn't get swamped the following turn, but the fear of the combo pushed him. This dread may be enough to make the combo worthwhile in aggressive decks.

The Fecundity deck is very extreme. In 20 combo attempts out of ~50 goldfishes I've only fizzled once, but without Fecundity and Prospector, the deck flounders. While it is possible to combo off on turn two, I've only done it once. Also, the average combo turn has been five, which is really slow. It kills on six or later without the combo. And that's just goldfishing. Given how discard is defining Modern right now, it will realistically be very hard to plan for a combo turn with this deck. It will have to play out its hand and hope to draw the missing piece. In other words, the deck is likely not very good.

Little Red Men

Considering Wizards' dislike of tutoring effects and concerns over card advantage, it is very unlikely that Goblins will get anything close to Goblin Ringleader or Goblin Matron in Modern. So, the glory days of combo Goblins are past. However, I said the same thing about Bloodbraid Elf and Jace, the Mind Sculptor being unbanned, so anything is possible.

Either way, having a combo in an otherwise decent aggro deck can strengthen the deck. There is also another option on my testing list. Paul uses maindeck Blood Moon both as disruption and to give his goblins mountainwalk. With Skirk Prospector, that can happen on turn two or while tapped out. As anyone who has faced Ponza recently knows, early Moons are excellent in Modern.

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David Ernenwein

David has been playing Magic since Odyssey block. A dedicated Spike, he's been grinding tournaments for over a decade, including a Pro Tour appearance. A Modern specialist who dabbles in Legacy, his writing is focused on metagame analysis and deck evolution.

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Daily Stock Watch – Goblin Piledriver

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! I was busy playing over the weekend with my brand new Humans deck and I could tell you right off the bat that the deck is insane. I have yet to touch the other popular deck in the format (BR Hollow One) which happens to be the first deck that I played with when I returned to competitive Magic last year. These two decks are quite popular nowadays and should easily be classified as the decks to beat in the format, having buried in hindsight decks that have been consistently performing for the majority of last year such as Tron, Grixis Death's Shadow, and UR Storm. One particular deck that I have kept an eye on amidst the chaos is 8-Whack, which happens to be a variation of Red Deck Wins that focuses more on the synergy of goblins. One key card of the deck that has made a decent push financially is one of the old reliable members of its kin.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Piledriver

If you are a red mage, you've always had a place in your heart for Goblin Piledriver. Once a $40 card during its prime, the card met its staggering descent financially due to a reprint in Magic Origins. It has been a downward spiral for it ever since but thanks to this deck that looks like a kid's starter deck, our beloved goblin is slowly making itself relevant again.

8-Whack

Creatures

4 Foundry Street Denizen
4 Goblin Bushwhacker
2 Goblin Chieftain
4 Goblin Guide
1 Goblin Heelcutter
3 Goblin Piledriver
4 Legion Loyalist
3 Mogg Fanatic
4 Mogg War Marshal
4 Reckless Bushwhacker

Instants and Sorceries

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Goblin Grenade

Lands

19 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Dragon's Claw
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Goblin Rabblemaster
1 Blood Moon
1 Reality Hemorrhage
2 Skullcrack
2 Smash to Smithereens
2 Shattering Spree

The deck is straight up gung-ho in its approach to zap your life total in a few turns. I have been ransacked by this deck during testing, and even a good draw from the Humans deck could still be totally outclassed by this crew. The Goblin Piledriver is gravy on this list, as it gets past pesky Snapcaster Mages or Meddling Mages that are trying to buy its owner some sweet time to recover from the onslaught of the goblins. And because this deck is quite popular among casual and budget players alike (although Legion Loyalist hasn't been so cheap lately), Goblin Piledriver is back to a decent amount of $5.62 once again after almost hitting bulk territory for the past few years.

The Best Goblins

The list above is a rather personal one but I think we could agree for the most part that these guys are a cut above the rest of the goblin horde. Legion Loyalist might be making a strong push to be considered in this conversation but that still remains to be seen. For now, let us focus on the possible financial gains that we could get from piling up the Piledrivers (pun intended) which is primed to make a push back to $10 territory if the deck gains more popularity. I am a fan at its current price tag so let's start getting our copies while it's still not that hot.

At the moment, only a few copies of Goblin Piledriver from Magic Origins (our target spec for the meantime) are available via TCGPlayer and Card Kingdom for anywhere between $5.49 up to $5.62, while StarCityGames is out of stock at $6.99 and is expected to restock soon at the same price. I'm not too keen on getting foils, as there is already a Judge foil of this card and there might not be much room for growth for it financially. Try trading for more copies of the card at $5 and below as it could pad its price up to $10 in the coming months.

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we continue to speculate on cards that might be on the rise, or try to get rid of the ones that are at risk of losing value. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: The Criminally Undervalued

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Welcome back, folks. As most of you know, I practice and preach a process approach to speculating on Magic Online. I trust "The Process" just as much as the Philadelphia 76ers (and fortunately for everyone involved, the results don't require multiple years of tanking).

Today's article will be a tad different, inspired by my recent speculation on Hazoret the Fervent. There are times when I notice that some cards are commanding prices well below or well above what they should, and I just happened to stumble upon Hazoret's price being so low that I was compelled to speculate on it, even though the ideal time for investing into Amonkhet cards has long passed. I did the same with Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet last summer, to a profit of about $75. Sometimes cards just get flatout undervalued by the market.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bazaar of Baghdad

Sometimes you just have to travel to the Bazaar of Baghdad and find the best deals, and the lame duck season we're in now is a perfect time to do so. One thing I like about The Process is that it minimized the amount of time and effort you have to spend. It's efficient. Few people have the time or desire to scour the entire MTGO marketplace every day or every week.

This week, at least, I'm doing it for you, identifying cards that I think are well below where they should be, cards that I think have a good chance to net you a lot of money if you invest in them today. What are some Standard cards that are criminally undervalued? Let's take a look.

1. Vraska, Relic Seeker

Current Price: 5.43 tix
Future Price: 7.00-10.00 tix

I'm surprised Vraska has dipped this far. She's no Elspeth, Sun's Champion, but she is a playable top-end planeswalker. Expect her stock to rise once eyes turn toward Standard again.

2. Heart of Kiran

Current Price: 5.63 tix
Future Price: 8.50-12.00 tix

It's legendary. It's historic. It will benefit from the reprintings of Isolated Chapel and Clifftop Retreat. Dominaria should thus be a huge boon to a card that is at its current low. I might not have been as excited about this card if we were about ready to enter its final format, but we have not only Dominaria but also Core 2019 to go. That minimizes risk and helps make this a solid pickup.

3. The Deserts

Ipnu Rivulet Current Price: 0.16 tix
Ipnu Rivulet Future Price: 0.40-0.75 tix

Shefet Dunes Current Price: 0.61 tix
Shefet Dunes Future Price:
1.00-1.25 tix

Ifnir Deadlands Current Price: 0.31 tix
Ifnir Deadlands Future Price: 0.65-1.00 tix

(Hashep Oasis Current Price: 0.71 tix)
(Hashep Oasis Future Price: 0.75-1.15 tix)

I think all of these lands, except for Hashep Oasis, are criminally undervalued right now. It might be wise to try to snag Shefet Dunes below 0.50 tix, but I think you'll likely profit by buying anything below 0.70 tix. These are just some of the best utility lands in Standard, they tap for colored mana, enter untapped and come from a small set. Yes, please!

4. A Few Bulk Mythics

Glorious End Current Price: 0.06 tix
Glorious End Future Price: 0.03-0.65 tix

Uncage the Menagerie Current Price: 0.08 tix
Uncage the Menagerie Future Price: 0.05-1.00 tix

Dovin Baan Current Price: 0.26 tix
Dovin Baan Future Price: 0.15-1.50 tix

I'm not sure I want to speculate on these, but what unites them is that the market is undervaluing their potential. As we learned a few months ago, mythic rares with a CMC of 3 or less just don't have values this low. That's why I invested in Combat Celebrant and is why I might invest in Glorious End.  Considering that Tefari and Oath of Tefari are UW, I could easily see a mediocre planeswalker like Dovin Baan seeing some play, and any play will cause a large price increase for a mythic rare valued currently at a quarter.

5. Pull from Tomorrow

Current Price: 0.05 tix
Future Price: 0.10-0.65 tix

I will lose money on Pull from Tomorrow since I invested in them when they were 0.50 tix (LOL), but at this price, you're likely to make money here. Since we're getting toys like Mox Amber and Gilded Lotus that help you empty your hand and generate a lot of mana, I think that cards like Pull from Tomorrow, not to mention Walking Ballista and Torment of Hailfire, have much higher potential going forward. The market hasn't yet given Pull from Tomorrow's potential its due.

Signing Off

The value of my collection has gone up by  ten percent over the past two weeks, from $2700 to $2950. This is surprising given that we're in lame-duck season and suggests to me that folks are looking forward to Dominaria and Standard (which bodes well for all of our investments more broadly). It also shows the very real impact of redemption, which was recently reinstated for Ixalan block cards and has put upward pressure on them. That's making it harder for me to wait for more ideal prices on Rivals of Ixalan opportunities, but the week of the release of Dominaria should prove a good time to pounce.

A copy of my portfolio can be found here.

Additionally, I'm open to exploring topics of your choice over the next few weeks. Please leave some suggestions in the comments for the type of content you'd like to see, and I'll see if I can deliver. Thanks!

Insider: Five Reasons Dominaria Will Reignite the Magic World

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I believe Magic is in a strong and healthy place right now. So when I say, "Dominaria will reignite Magic," I'm not coming at it from a position where Magic is near death and needs the paddles of life to bring it back. The hypothesis today's article is that Magic has been in a steady place for a while now – and that Dominaria will mark the start of a significant period of growth.

There are certain sets that seem to draw a crowd and have a way of drawing players back into the game. The original Ravnica was one of these watershed sets, as was Innistrad. These were sets that really engaged players of all ages and skill levels because they were so iconic and interesting. I think ultimately what draws people to Magic are a couple of factors: interesting set concepts, fun formats, and timing. Dominaria is poised to offer all these criteria in spades.

I'll provide five reasons why I think we are in for a block that grows Magic in a significant way, and then a few ways this will likely impact MTG finance.

1. Absence Makes the Heart Grow Fonder

It has been a legitimately long time since Magic has visited the original plane of Dominaria with a full expansion block. The last time we visited Dominaria was Time Spiral back in 2006. Has it really been 12 years?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

Nothing owns Magical Nostalgia like Dominaria. It is the place where it all began. It holds the original characters, locations and lore. Dominaria has its fingerprints all over Magic. If there were ever a set that had the potential to draw people back into the game, it is this one.

2. "Return" Sets Have Historically Been Popular

I mentioned it has been 12 years since last we set foot on this plane. Since then, we've returned to Mirrodin, Ravnica, and Innistrad. Return sets have traditionally been big moments in the metagame, community and the overriding storyline.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, the Last Hope

Generally speaking, I think history is on my side when I say that Return sets have an advantage over new planes when it comes to getting people excited to play. There is a big advantage in selling people a repackaged version of something they already like. There are already positive feelings associated with Dominaria that will generate hype.

3. Standard Has Been Awful – But It Looks To Be Fixed

Of the Return sets, I would argue the least popular was Innistrad II. It was far from a bust, but I think it failed to capture the imagination of players in the way that RTR and Scars of Mirrodin did. My opinion is that it didn't live up to its potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mindslaver

A couple of factors may have caused this: first, there wasn't a huge amount of time between the original Innistrad and Innistrad II. Personally, I wasn't really to a point where I missed it and felt excited about returning. It also didn't feel innovative. It just felt like the original Innistrad. This is likely a function of the fact that Magic as a game hadn't changed so much since the original set.

I also think it was poorly designed. Nostalgia can only carry a block so far. Obviously, it needs to also provide fun and interesting games of Magic. A block full of cards and decks that obviously needed banning pushes more players away than draws them in. If the plan is to grow Magic by bringing people back into the fold, the engagement of those players at the LGS level (FNM, etc.) is important. Unplayable and unfun Standard is a terrible way to grow and retain players.

With that being said, Wizards has come off of a tw- year span of horrendous Standard formats. It was arguably the worst period of Standard design since Urza's Block. There were too many broken decks and too much stagnation, back to back to back to back.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emrakul, the Promised End

Wizards appears to be on top of the problems (broken cards and decks) that have plagued Standard for the past few years. When I look at the spoiler, it isn't obvious to me that any particular thing is too broken, which is a welcome change. I see a lot more good cards and a far fewer cards that stand out as obnoxious. So here's to hoping that Dominaria creates a new golden age of Standard. It is on the table as a possibility.

4. Dominaria Is a Flavor Win

Let's pretend that Dominaria doesn't automatically get a huge bonus from nostalgia. The fact remains that the plane is a proven flavor winner already. Dominaria is everything that is the best about Magic, and for that reason alone, the set will be successful.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abeyance

There are lots of players who look at a Pirates versus Dinosaurs block and think, "This is kind of goofy." The same can be said with an ancient Egypt or steampunk block. Dominaria takes us back to the basics of pure fantasy, which is a baseline that will unify the player base.

5. The Set Is Actually Good

Obviously, I can only eyeball test what I've seen from the spoilers, but the set is loaded with really cool cards. I'm certain that Dominaria will break the record for the number of Battle Box cards I add to my stack. It is ridiculous how accurate the "how many cards did I add to my Danger Room" test is a good measuring stick for how likable a set is.

There's a lot of fun cards, and I don't mean "fun" in the sense that they cost 11 mana and do something silly. There are a lot of nice, versatile, flexible, and playable cards in the one- to five-mana range. People are not terrible at Magic anymore and they want cards that reflect what people who actually know how to play enjoy doing.

The set also looks like not only a return to a beloved plane, but a return to a Limited format that won't be ruled by absurd bombs. I've noticed the baseline power level of cards is a little bit higher when it comes to commons and uncommons, but with fewer "run away with the game" rares. This should lead to more balanced Limited play which is another way to engage new or returning players.

What Does All of This Mean for Magic Finance?

Obviously, a set that grows Magic will impact the secondary market in a positive way. An increase in the player pool means more demand for your cards.

In particular, a new influx of players would be great for Modern staple prices. People like Modern. Even if Standard is good, I could see a trend toward newer players dipping into both formats from the get-go. The prices are lower across the board, which makes Modern just affordable enough that newer players can invest in it.

I also think that the demand for Revised cards may be linked to this return to Dominaria in some ways. Obviously, Old School and speculators are driving the value, but returning, nostalgic players may also want to pick up copies of old favorites like Royal Assassin, Shivan Dragon, Serra Angel, Force of Nature, and Vesuvan Doppelganger.

From a "picks" perspective, it makes a lot of sense that these beautiful and iconic cards would begin ticking upward leading up to a set that is bound to tug at the heartstrings of players being drawn back in. In some general sense, I'd suggest targeting cards that people would have really enjoyed playing with before the Modern era. Gaea's Cradle seems like a great fit, as it is on the Reserved List and was a casual all-star back in the day.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

Goblins are also making a return in Dominaria, which makes them a potential market for returning tribal fans. Goblin Bidding was one of the staple decks during Onslaught block that I could see people wanting to rebuild for casual table play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Piledriver

Another group of cards to think about are Commander standouts that appeared before the Modern era. These cards have already been steadily ticking up in price over the last six months. Returning players who "stick" are very likely to gravitate toward a format like Commander, and they are going to be looking for those powerful cards they distinctly remember playing in the past: Mana Vault, Decree of Pain, and Time Stretch come to mind.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Decree of Pain

Perhaps looking at old Commander lists (it was named EDH back then!) is a good place to find playable nostalgia cards that would be on returning players' wishlists. One thing is for sure: there's nothing like a nostalgia set to drive prices on nostalgia cards! What cards are you looking at in the final days before Dominaria's release?

Insider: The Tide Rises Yet Again

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This must be Magic euphoria. It seems every speculation target is working. You want to buy Old School playables? Those are still hot and some are seeing a second wind. You want obscure Reserved List chaff? Those are spiking left and right. You want Masterpieces? Those are all disappearing two at a time. Even Modern and Legacy staples are rebounding healthily.

In other words, life is good in the world of MTG finance. About the only things that aren’t working for speculators are the smattering of cards hitting all-time lows on MTG Stocks:

(Click to expand.)

It’s basically some Standard mythics and a stack of Masters 25 cards that haven’t bottomed yet, and that’s about it.

What Is Causing This?

This appreciation in cards is rewarding those who have stretched their investments and minimized cash positions. It seems you really cannot go wrong—as long as you’re avoiding reprinted stuff and eschewing Standard for the time being, you should be turning a profit. Perhaps if we can get to the root of this price growth, we can start to qualify how long it may last.

First, I do think there were two external factors that are at play here that have nothing to do with Magic: eBay’s coupons and tax season.

At the end of each quarter, eBay likes to offer additional incentives to drive up sales numbers. But they were more aggressive with coupons last March than I have ever seen before. For a week we had near-daily coupons for 15-20 percent off, and that has been unheard of in the past. Then once April 1st rolled around, did you notice the sudden disappearance of these coupons? Their quarter ended, so now there’s no need to juice up sales numbers to hit whatever targets they were aiming for.

What were folks doing with these coupons in the Magic world? I myself bought a couple of dual lands because I saw the recent price increases coming from a mile away.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tundra

Others put the money into Masterpieces. I’m sure there were some attractively priced Old School cards scooped up with these sales. Basically anything that is trusted to hold value and increase over time was snapped up to net the 15-20 percent discount as free money. This surely dried up the eBay market on sought-after cards, thus reducing supply and increasing price.

Then there’s tax season. The tax deadline just passed, and procrastinators everywhere have been getting their refund checks from Uncle Sam where applicable. Perhaps some of these refunds are being pushed into desirable Magic cards? It certainly seems feasible!

In addition to the external factors driving Magic sales, there are also some specific catalysts related to the game that are driving price growth. There’s the increase in team events that involve Modern and Legacy simultaneously, including the upcoming Pro Tour. If you want to play in one of these events, someone on your team needs a Modern and Legacy deck. The recent shake-up in Modern via unbanning of Bloodbraid Elf and Jace, the Mind Sculptor refreshed the metagame (so far it’s been healthy). Players love reasons to brew, and these two powerhouses are surely enough to scratch that creative itch.

More artificially, there are still some heavy-hitting investors out there moving aggressively into Reserved List staples. Rudy of Alpha Investments has not been shy about this. In a recent video, he claimed he is on a mission to obtain 100 complete sets of Arabian Nights. Only 20,500 sets can possibly exist based on the print run and we know that not that many copies survived the past 25 years. This kind of investing is putting a ton of pressure on the market.

Then there are the silent folks doing the same thing as Rudy, but without the silly YouTube videos. These people exist. I’ve sold a few dozen Alpha cards over the past couple months and I see the same buyers popping up time and again. No one needs twelve Alpha Spell Blasts.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spell Blast

Lastly, there’s the rising tide. All these price increases—dual lands, other Reserved List cards, Old School cards, Masterpieces, Modern staples, etc.—are creating more wealth within the Magic community. That newfound wealth is often churned into other Magic cards, driving prices up even further. It’s a bit of a feedback loop that could one day go awry. But for now, it’s working in our favor.

When Could This End?

I remember writing an article last year studying all the cards that were in the doldrums. It seemed like many cards—especially those not on the Reserved List—were seeing negative pricing pressures. And I wondered what would turn this market around.

Now we’re in the opposite situation, and I am left wondering what could crash this party. Could it be another Masters set? We know Wizards is cutting back on those, and this could be the unspoken “all clear” to the Magic community. Could it be the end of coupons and tax season? That would imply we’re near the end of this bull market cycle since tax season is just about over.

In reality, I don’t think there’s a negative catalyst on the horizon. The only downward pressure I see in MTG finance is the passing of the team Pro Tour and the big Star City Games event in Roanoke later this year. Those are both incentivizing acquisition of heavy-hitting Modern, Legacy, and Vintage staples. Once these events pass and we’re back to Standard week-in and week-out, we will see a decrease in demand for high-end cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for City of Traitors

But even this wouldn’t necessarily mean dipping prices. Are players going to immediately take apart their newly built decks as soon as these events are over? Unlikely. And these team events have been successful, so I expect Wizards to continue hosting Grands Prix with this team structure. No, I don’t think we’ll see a huge selloff anytime soon.

I believe as long as we are monitoring market trends, selling into buyouts and artificial price spikes, and parking our dollars in cards with healthy demand profiles and low reprint risk, we should be in the clear for the foreseeable future. I’ll reevaluate things after SCG Con in early June.

Actions Taken

Everyone is finding their niche and having success with it right now. My strategy may not be a fit for everyone else. But I want to be transparent with how I’m approaching MTG finance during this boom.

First of all, I am not involved with the Masterpiece buyouts. I pursued them the first time they were targeted and made some modest profits. They are awfully tempting to chase. But they’re not for me. They require a high buy-in and a high level of agility as prices move with such volatility. The optimal way to play these involves international arbitrage, of which I have little interest in pursuing. These are working extremely well for many folks; it’s not for me.

My focus continues to be in domestic arbitrage. I continue to buy Alpha cards directly from Card Kingdom, which has rapidly become my favorite vendor. People keep selling Alpha cards to their buylist, and I keep pouncing on them because so many are underpriced. Just last night I bought four more Spell Blasts for $5.99 (VG) and $4 (G). These reliably sell for $9-$20 on eBay depending on the day. With these Alpha cards, I buy what I can get my hands on for reasonable prices, sell extras and keep a few for myself. This approach has helped me acquire a nice pile of low-end Alpha cards for the long-term investment.

My other focus continues to be Reserved List cards. Many of Magic’s earliest sets have already gotten prohibitively expensive. But there are plenty of cheaper cards I think are worth a closer look. Last week I wrote about Revised, and I continue to see Revised Reserved List cards and Old School cards on the rise. It’s not just dual lands hitting all-time highs—Fork, Copy Artifact, and Vesuvan Doppelganger are all climbing steadily. Even non-Reserved List Revised cards, such as Birds of Paradise and Demonic Tutor, are on the climb.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Copy Artifact

My other recent focus has been on Reserved List cards from 1995-1997. I’ve really taken a liking to Thawing Glaciers, which sees some Commander play and is a beautiful card from an under-appreciated set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thawing Glaciers

Cards like Ritual of the Machine and Heart of Yavimaya show up on MTG Stocks’s Interests page now and again, and I could easily see these reaching a tipping point. I don’t exactly understand why a card like Reparations or Chaosphere would spike, but this is the world we live in now. It seems worth grabbing any near-bulk Reserved List card and throwing it in a box. I still prefer playable ones, but can you really go wrong?

Wrapping It Up

It’s a great time to be a Magic speculator! As long as you are avoiding the obvious pitfalls of Standard rotation and Masters 25 reprints, you should be doing quite well. I know my sales trends are very strong and I am on pace for a record year. And I don’t see the parade ending anytime soon—there are plenty of catalysts that encourage more price appreciation going forward.

Could there be a bubble forming? It’s possible, I suppose. I think if there is a bubble, it exists in specific areas of the market and not Magic as a whole. I don’t think every Masterpiece should be $100, so there will likely be some sell-offs there. Perhaps after SCG Con we’ll see Legacy prices cool off a bit. But I personally believe we’re seeing a general reset of pricing and that we will hit new plateaus going forward. This type of reset happens around this time each year, and that trend will continue.

As the market gets used to the new prices, expectations will be updated and it will become the new “normal.” People were shocked when Underground Sea hit $100. After hitting $300 it felt like that was the new ceiling. Now a Near Mint Underground Sea is a $500 card with a $350 buylist price. This pattern will continue to repeat itself, and it’s why I remain confident in MTG as an investment vehicle. That could all change one day; but for now, I’m happy to be involved.

…

Sigbits

  • When I decided to pick up a few Thawing Glaciers, I noticed Card Kingdom had a few EX copies in stock in the $9 range. I picked up three copies from them. Now they’re completely sold out and EX copies are listed at $11.19. I think they will increase their pricing on this one again as it continues to slowly grind higher.
  • Card Kingdom has multiple Masterpieces on their hot list now, and I see this trend continuing as they seek to restock after all these buyouts. Some heavy hitters include Chalice of the Void at $100, Mana Vault at $90, Force of Will at $90, and Engineered Explosives at $80. I think these are all substantially below TCGplayer’s mid pricing, so it’ll be interesting to see if these buy prices climb higher in light of recent trends.
  • I’ve noticed some popular Beta cards are jumping in price recently. I knew Card Kingdom’s buy price on Alpha Unholy Strength was already steep at $15. But they also pay $4 on Beta copies, and this I did not realize. They also pay $4.95 on Beta Paralyze. If you’re interested in this market, I’d recommend browsing what’s expensive from Alpha and then picking up Beta.

The Saga Continues: Dominaria Spoiler Review

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With each new set, new cards enter Modern, and it's been the case for the past few years that new sets impact the format in some way. Dominaria is no different; the expansion contains a few cards sure to succeed in the format, as well as some enigmas and some clearly overrated cards. In this article, we'll review cards in all three groups.

The Playables

I'm confident these cards will see Modern play in some capacity.

Zhalfirin Void

We'll start with the card I personally am most excited about. Unlike Sorcerous Spyglass, the last newcomer that had me stoked for applications in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, Zhalfirin Void actually kills in that deck—and this time, I've done the preliminary testing to know for sure. The card is an auto-include at 2 in that deck and very likely deserves a couple more slots.

Damping Sphere

Next, we'll look at the card everyone else is most excited about: Damping Sphere. The Modern community went wild when this card was revealed to be just uncommon, since it boasts a great effect for very little cost—and is eminently splashable, to boot! Literally any deck looking for some quick-and-dirty percentage points against Tron and Storm can throw a couple of these into their sideboard, meaning demand for the uncommon is likely to start and remain high (not Fatal Push-high, mind you). Having it at uncommon ensures more players will be able to get their hands on them faster, so Tron players, expect to see plenty of Spheres as soon as Dominaria becomes legal.

Sphere's artifact typing does make it vulnerable to hate. Both Tron and Storm pack artifact removal in the sideboard, but I like Sphere better against the former deck; Nature's Claim already dealt with Blood Moon, and the two-mana Sphere is a smaller mana investment. Against Storm, though, Sphere pales in comparison to more surgical options like Eidolon of Rhetoric, Rest in Peace, or Rule of Law; it's a lot harder for the UR deck to remove enchantments than artifacts. That said, Sphere has so much coverage against Modern's linear decks that I expect it to win out over narrower alternatives in most sideboards.

I do think some folks are overrating Sphere's role in Modern. The card seems to do very little against Eldrazi strategies, for instance. Paying two mana to turn a Temple into a Wastes is just worse than Spreading Seas, and certainly not worth a card; the point of Eldrazi decks in general (but mostly of Eldrazi Tron) is that they can execute their primary gameplan through heavy-duty nonbasic hate like Blood Moon, or now Damping Sphere.

Precognition Field

Another new toy that has my attention is Precognition Field, which I've already experimented with in a variety of aggro-control shells. Like Jace, the Mind Sculptor, Field represents a full can of card advantage in one four-mana package. It doesn't require mana to function once cast, either, since Jace too makes pilots pay for the spells he draws.

While Field's advantage is more conditional and requires decks to be built a certain way—it obviously doesn't fit into the Collected Company decks we've seen sometimes adopt the planeswalker—it's a great deal more robust. Enchantments are notoriously difficult to remove in Modern, and this one dodges Abrupt Decay, leaving pretty much just Maelstrom Pulse and Detention Sphere as feasible answers. Sticking Jace can prove tricky for blue decks, since the walker can be Bolted or attacked and therefore requires a very specific timing window. Not so with Field, which only asks pilots to not outright die on the following turn.

Broken Bond

I bet Broken Bond finds a home in a specific type of big mana deck that runs a lot of lands and relies on putting them into play quickly. That excludes the land-light, cantrip-heavy Tron, as well as the creature-centric Eldrazi decks. Rather, Bond seems tailor-made for RG Valakut and maybe Amulet Titan.

Both of these decks struggle to defeat a resolved Blood Moon, and Leyline of Sanctity's no picnic, either. So they've always run enchantment removal in the side, be it Nature's Claim or Seal of Primordium. Bond's upside is relevant so much of the time in these land-heavy decks that I'd be surprised if they don't just make a clean switch.

The Maybes

These cards strike me as having Modern potential, but they either lack obvious homes or fit into decks with shaky track records.

Mox Amber

Perhaps the most puzzling card in the set, Mox Amber has bewildered Modern players to the point of abandon. Some brave souls have tried to make it work, though. David's impressions of the card were bleak, but I think it has potential in the right shell. Modern is all about fast mana, after all. I'm excited to see which decks adopt Mox Amber, even if it takes a year or two.

Artificer's Assistant

One of the newer cards spoiled, Artificer's Assistant is a Flying Men with significant upside in decks that cast many artifacts. I can imagine accumulating upwards of 15 scrys in Ironworks Combo helps the likes of Chromatic Sphere draw into critical pieces more often, but the bird doesn't directly contribute to any synergies there, so I don't know if it belongs. Even more tenuous is the idea of Assistant in a deck like Lantern Control or Affinity, which quickly dump their hands, don't need scry effects, and have access to Glint-Nest Crane as a superior option.

I'm still tickled by the idea of Assistant in Blue Steel, though, where it bottoms weaker draws to find heavy-hitting closers and otherwise synergizes with the gameplan thanks to its cheap, evasive, blue body.

Wizard's Retort/Wizard's Lightning

Counterspell and Lightning Bolt are some of the most iconic Magic cards of all time, and in some ways, Modern cards—players have clamored for a straight reprint of the former for years, while analogs Logic Knot and Deprive have seen intermittent play over the format's lifespan. In Dominaria, the pair are reborn as the tribe-specific Wizard's Retort and Wizard's Lightning.

I've messed around with Wizard decks in Modern before (for no particualr reason), and so was excited to test Retort and Lightning. Their performance pleasantly surprised me, and I wonder if an actual Wizards deck won't spring up in Modern to abuse the new instants with Snapcaster Mage.

The Flame of Keld

The final card in our maybes is The Flame of Keld, which on its surface looks like it could do something in Burn. I think its conditions are too hard to meet in that deck, though. Sure, there are plenty of instances where Burn will wish it could topdeck Flame, but also plenty where Flames actually in the deck will cost it the game. Burn needs a critical mass of spells that do the exact same thing, and Flame does something different.

Flame is more appealing out of the sideboard, where it attacks decks like Jund pretty effectively. These decks tend to stall Burn out at 7 life or so and then kill them with a Goyf as it draws lands. Of course, Shrine of Burning Rage does something similar, and has the added bonus of getting through roadblocks like Chalice of the Void.

The Misses

These cards have generated hype I recommend against believing.

Karn, Scion of Urza

As of Dominaria, any deck in the format can spend four mana for a heap of loyalty. But loyalty's not worth much in Modern, and neither are clunky card advantage engines. After all, ours is a format defined by Dark Confidant, Urza's Tower, and Temur Battle Rage.

Karn, Scion of Urza's biggest failing, though, is that it doesn't outperform anything. Modern has a vast enough card pool at this point that pretty much every deck in existence has better card advantage engine options than Karn at four mana, especially with Jace, the Mind Sculptor now in the format. Most are colored, sure, but so are most decks. The few that aren't undeniably have no use for this guy.

Traxos, Scourge of Kroog

Four mana for a 7/7 trample is a pretty good rate, so naturally Traxos comes with a drawback. And in Modern, that drawback isn't even so significant—players can easily build decks that cast heroic spells each turn should an adequate payoff demand it. But in this Construct's case, the payoff simply isn't big enough to warrant that kind of deckbuilding.

Traxos's biggest weakness lies in its typing. Kolaghan's Command and Ancient Grudge are the biggest obstacles to its playability outside of just Fatal Push. Where Hollow One naturally dodges the ubiquitous black instant and exists in decks that otherwise ignore artifact removal, Traxos all but requires a shell naturally weak to artifact hate already, increasing the odds opponents have some handy after its conditions have been met. All that fragility on a card that doesn't impact the board the turn it comes down bodes ill for this card's future in Modern.

Settle the Score

I've heard murmurings about this card in Jund as a way to fire off Liliana of the Veil's ultimate the turn after she comes down, but nah. Jund is not a combo deck, and has little interest in firing off Lili ultimates as fast as possible. It's an aggressive attrition deck that takes its time chewing through opposing resources so that it can take over the game with Tarmogoyf or a manland.

The latter option also demands Jund wield the most efficient one-for-one interaction possible, as does its general gameplan in a proactive format like Modern. These conditions combine to make Settle the Score superfluous in that deck to the point of being awful—or, in Magic lingo, "too cute."

Phyrexian Scriptures

The second of two sagas in this article, Phyrexian Scriptures plays like a Damnation with "suspend 1". On its own, that's pretty unimpressive, but Scriptures does leave one of its caster's threats alive, and incidentally hates on the graveyard.

As is the case with many fair-looking cards entering Modern from Standard, the exciting aspect of Scriptures lies in its abuse potential. Since its big mode is on II and not III, removing a counter from the enchantment somehow gives players access to repeated Wrath effects, all while their newly christened artifact beats down.

The most obvious way to achieve this combo is with Hex Parasite, itself an artifact that won't die to the sweep. Parasite can also remove multiple lore counters from Scriptures to buff itself with a +1/+1 counter should opponents hold off on playing threats into an impending Wrath of God effect.

While charming, I don't think this combo can actually survive in Modern. But I'd keep an eye on Hex Parasite. The way Wizards designed the sagas makes me think the metal insect could break something eventually.

Old Plane, New Toys

Besides the new Modern cards, Dominaria is dripping with throwback flavor, and I can't wait to get my hands on some of its awesome uncommons. Which cards from the set have you the most excited? Let me know in the comments.

Insider: Winners This Week

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Last weekend, the Grand Prix double-header in Seattle was a rare look at Legacy at the premier level, and it also helped shed light on the state of the Standard metagame on the precipice of Dominaria. Today I'll discuss how some of the biggest price gainers this week were related to the Grand Prix and identify some other trends to take note of as well.

There was an error retrieving a chart for City of Traitors

Mono-Red Prison has become a hot deck in Legacy, and an essential component is City of Traitors to accelerate into its lock pieces. The new demand has driven up its price considerably. The price showed some rumblings over the past couple weeks as it started to climb towards $200, but has now spiked to around $250. As a Reserved List card with a lot of applications in Legacy, there’s likely more room to grow in the near-term, and its long-term outlook is great.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancient Tomb

There’s also been movement on Ancient Tomb, another critical part of the Red Prison deck and an even more important Legacy staple that’s played in a variety of decks. It’s not on the Reserved List and has had a Masterpiece reprinting, so I’m more cautious about it than City of Traitors, but its price has jumped from $45 to $60 this week and is likely to keep heading higher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale

The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale is also moving up, as two successive increases this week brought the price from $1600 to $2000 and now to $2400 for mint copies. Old cards in sets like Legends have seen massive growth over the past months, so it makes sense that the cards that were already expensive will catch up and grow along with them, and I think that’s some of what we’re seeing now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

Engineered Explosives is notable as a key Modern staple that wasn’t included in Masters 25, so with no reprint in sight for at least the coming year, its price is due to rise. It started to increase right after the Masters 25 release, where it was $50, up to $60 a week ago, followed by two successive spikes to $75 and now over $80! It seems like Engineered Explosives is Modern’s next $100 card. I’d pay close attention to the Kaladesh Masterpiece, which at around $100 now seems like a bargain compared to the other versions that are nearly that price. Masterpieces seem to spike all the time, so it could be next.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Combat Celebrant

Combat Celebrant saw huge growth after it broke out in the Blue-Red God-Pharaoh's Gift deck that crushed GP Seattle. Now at $10, I imagine the price doesn’t have much more to grow and is likely to fall, but the deck is the real deal and will continue to excel after Dominaria.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bomat Courier

The best card in GP Seattle seemed to be Bomat Courier, which is not only a staple in red aggressive decks, but in the new UR God-Pharaoh's Gift deck, and was found in an incredible seven of the top eight decks. Its no surprise its online price spiked from 1.3 tix to 3.3 overnight. Its paper price has actually begun to fall significantly, which is likely due to it being a four-of in the red Challenger deck that was released last week.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dire Fleet Daredevil

Dire Fleet Daredevil, on the other hand, has only begun to grow. Snapcaster Mage is one of the best cards in Magic and a staple of all formats, and Dire Fleet Daredevil offers a taste of that power. It already sees some Modern play, and it will only get better, so its future is bright, and its price is starting to reflect that. Its price fell as low as $4, but has been growing for the last month, reaching $7 last week, and now spiking over $8 before coming back a bit. I’ve heard some people mention the card as a speculation target, so I’m sure there are some people sitting on a bunch of copies that will start to sell them, so based on that and the price finally moving down a bit, I expect this is the new price for the time being, but I am optimistic about its long-term potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, the Last Hope

Liliana, the Last Hope performs well in Modern and Legacy, and it sees plenty of casual play. It’s one of the top planeswalkers in Magic, so it has a lot of long-term potential, and its price reflects that. It sank to around $30 by the time it rotated out of Standard with Ixalan, and to a low of around $27 a couple months ago, but it rebounded to $34 by the release of Masters 25, and this week jumped to $38. I see it soon heading towards its all-time high around $50, and beyond even that over the next couple years.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Circular Logic

Pauper continues to grow and prices are marching along accordingly. The big winner this week was Circular Logic, which is a staple of the Tireless Tribe combo deck that’s the most broken in the format. A move from $4 to past $7 represents huge growth, but I believe it’s real demand that represents a new price point that’s not likely to fall, and growing to $10 in 2018 seems inevitable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shadow Rift

Another staple of the Tireless Tribe deck is Shadow Rift, and it has spiked from around $1.50 to past $4, on the basis of it being from one of the oldest sets in Pauper.

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A surprising spike has been Swirling Sandstorm, which for most of its existence has been overlooked, but is a staple sideboard card in Pauper, specifically in the Blue-Red Delver deck that’s the top-performing deck in the metagame. Over the past few weeks it moved from under a quarter towards $0.50, and has now spiked above $2.

The price increases on these cards indicate that there’s still a lot of room for Pauper cards to grow, and more than just the big staples. There are gems out there that are still underpriced, and it’s only a matter of time before they have price spikes of their own.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sinew Sliver

A card I have my eye on is Sinew Sliver, which has grown in price extremely slowly but steadily over the past five years, from $0.60 to over $2.30, at which point the Pauper boom accelerated the growth to the point we sit now at $3.25. Slivers is a real but fringe Pauper deck, but it has also seen increased attention lately as a viable Modern and even Legacy deck. It’s also a key Sliver in one of Magic’s most popular and iconic tribes, and it only has one printing, in a set that’s relatively old and underopened. There’s certainly some risk for reprint, whether in a Masters with a Slivers theme or a rebook in Standard, but I expect it will continue to grow at least a few dollars higher until then.

–Adam

Insider: The Pluses and Minuses of Proxies

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Hello Magic players, and welcome back!

Picture this: it’s Commander night at the LGS and you’re sitting down to play. There are some locals that you know quite well, and a player new to the store sits down. Now there’s a four-player Commander game starting up, and the new player looks at your group and says, “I have a bunch of proxies in here.” The group shrugs it off, but during the game you start to realize that the new person has almost every card in the deck proxied except for basic lands and a few cheap commons.

Proxy cards are a touchy subject. They are not welcome everywhere, though sometimes are accepted in casual play. On the other hand, many players simply do not have the finances to purchase expensive cards, and proxies give these players an outlet to at least play casually.

Commander is an interesting format, especially in regards to financial implications. Cards that otherwise would see slim-to-zero play in constructed formats are suddenly all-stars, such as Icy Manipulator, Wild Ricochet, and Chromatic Lantern, to name a few of many.

Chromatic Lantern is the perfect analysis for Commander’s financial influence. It's a card that once spiked to $5 and was considered overpriced in Standard—but today it has a pair of printings and an Invention Masterpiece, and is still valued at $14 on the lowest end.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chromatic Lantern

This is where proxies tend to muddle the game standards. If a player shows up with Chromatic Lantern as a proxy in a Commander deck, and the other players at the table paid their $14 for the card, it feels a bit unfair and can lead to some strained feelings about the game.

Hurting the Local Game Stores

The local LGS for any Magic player has the potential to be a friendly community where different people from all walks of life can get together and play a fun card game, but at its core, every local LGS is still a business. In order for any player’s personal LGS to stick around, it has to make money through sales, as tournament entries alone will never be enough to keep a store afloat.

Owning and operating an LGS can be a pricey proposition. The overhead for simply having a brick-and-mortar is always more than expected, between the rent, labor hours, expenses for paper and printing ink, cleaning supplies, aesthetics, and dozens of other small fees and expenses too numerous to name. Stores are technically a luxury retail business, since they sell entertainment and not a vital living commodity.

The economy makes purchasing luxury items difficult, since most players have their own expenses to some degree, and many players simply cannot afford to pay large sums of money on pieces of cardboard with pictures on them. Magic is incredibly fun and addicting, but the ends do not always justify the means. However, if a player wants their LGS to succeed, they need to be willing to sacrifice a bit of their money to support their local store and community.

Proxies can be exceptionally detrimental to a store’s revenue. There are plenty of situations where players are going to proxy up individual cards—and sometimes entire decks—depending on the community members and the level of competitive play. There is a wide range of possibilities here, from players who play competitive tournaments on a consistent basis testing out cards before making an intended purchase (which is usually fine for stores), to players who play casual formats and Commander formats who simply do not want to spring for the extra dollars (which is miserable for stores).

Proxy Legality in Store Events

While proxies are oftentimes the bane of an LGS, there are ways that the stores can work the idea of a proxy to their advantage.

The most common thing that I have seen is the idea of a “proxy tournament,” usually pertaining to a specific format. In the Chicagoland area, there were a few stores that would run Legacy tournaments on a frequent basis, since Chicagoland has some rabid Legacy fans in the area.

With this in mind, my personal LGS, as well as a few other stores, have made attempts to help get Legacy events fired for that passionate group of players. The downside is that many Magic players simply cannot afford Legacy no matter how much of their own money they are willing to spend on the game, because Legacy is insanely expensive across the board, with many staple decks costing several thousand dollars apiece.

Proxies are a way to circumvent the large entry cost into the Legacy format, and give players an opportunity to experience a format that's a great deal of fun and that allows for many unique interactions other formats do not. The “20 proxy” rule was in effect for a few Chicagoland events for a number of years, giving players the incentive to spend some amount of money towards a Legacy deck (benefiting stores) while not having to pay hundreds, or even thousands, of dollars on the few individual cards that are necessary for the decks to function.

The most common nonland proxy cards that I would see running around these Legacy decks were The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale, which costs an absurd $1600 at the moment; Imperial Recruiter, which just got a reprint but was previously well over $200 apiece, with a requirement of four copies in any deck it was played in; Lion's Eye Diamond, which moves around in price between $80 and $120, and can be hard to find from limited printings; and Candelabra of Tawnos, which is still in the $400-$500 range despite only truly seeing play as a one- or two-of in the Cloudpost and High Tide decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lion's Eye Diamond

Almost every dual land was a frequent proxy, because Volcanic Island and Underground Sea can fluctuate into the $300 apiece range, Tropical Island is never far behind, and even the cheapest dual lands are near $100 if not above almost all the time.

Even the budget decks in Legacy often required some proxies for players who had a hard time finding copies of cards that they could afford. Fetchlands like Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn were out of stock all over the place before the Modern Masters 2017 reprints. The proxy rule allowed for some solid flexibility and got events running at the LGS, bringing people into the store and potentially getting some revenue in the process.

The Proxy Cube!

Magic Online has a Holiday Cube that is essentially a drafted Vintage Cube, with some of the strongest cards in Magic history available for the event. If you have never tried it, it is incredibly fun playing with the all-time greatest cards.

My LGS did something really cool back in 2012: they had a copy of the entire Holiday Cube proxy-printed onto card stock and double-sleeved into high-quality sleeves to protect it. For a few months out of the year, an event was run to give paper Magic players the opportunity to try it. The cost of having the proxy Holiday Cube made was barely offset by tournament entries over time, but it was a really cool concept.

I would highly encourage any other LGS to attempt using proxies to their advantage. There are many ways to work with proxy cards to help expose loyal community members to potential decks, and as a result, those community members have the potential to purchase the actual copies of the cards if they enjoy the cards enough.

The Verdict on Proxies

Despite being a competitive player for several years, I am not the biggest fan of proxies as an overall whole from my time running an LGS. This does not mean that proxies cannot be utilized in positive ways, as I’ve mentioned with the proxy Holiday Cube and the proxy tournaments.

My advice as both an owner and a Magic player to anyone who uses proxies is pretty simple: please do not abuse the proxy concept. By all means, show up and play with people in your community! Just be careful with the concept. Try not to show up to a Commander pod with a full-proxy deck that is far overpowered for the pod you are playing with, because it will simply irritate the other players and can cause some discord.

What do you think of proxies? Do you use proxies in any format? Why do you use them? Are they generally accepted in your community? Let me know in the comments!

As always, thanks for reading!

Pete

@smash_pacman on Twitter

Insider: Pauper Has Turned Bulk into the Best Value in Magic

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The Pauper format has taken Magic by storm over the the past few months. It has gone from an MTGO time waster to community darling format in a drop of a hat. It's not just the shock novelty of something shiny and new, either.

When Pauper started to boom, I incorrectly assumed it was just people chasing the rush of the latest, greatest fad. Standard was rubbish at the time, and when this happens, people look for alternative ways to get their Magic fix. We saw a similar phenomenon last year, when Frontier saw a short-lived surge in play.

Pauper Is Not a Fad like Frontier

I have nothing against Frontier. It's a decently fun format and I enjoy formats that are not solved. The problem that holds Frontier back is that it really isn't anything special. It's simple math:

Standard + Modern ÷ 2 = Frontier

The issue isn't that the games aren't good, because they are fine. The issue is that the flavor doesn't really blow anybody away enough to become deeply invested. No matter how you pour it, Frontier is either Modern Lite or Standard IPA. It's not really that unique.

There was an error retrieving a chart for New Frontiers

Pauper, on the other hand, is unique. There is no other format in Magic like it with regard to what the format looks like or how the gameplay unfolds. Pauper has caught on for a combination of two reasons: it's both affordable and fun. Once you start playing, you want to play more. It's a function of the format and the games being interesting in a way that is completely different from other formats.

I've spent enough e-ink on selling Pauper. Whether you like it or don't, it is undeniable that the format is absurdly popular and continuing to gain momentum. From a finance perspective, it makes a lot of sense to use that information to our advantage.

Pauper Cards Are Good Value

Imagine a format that is growing in popularity and has a legitimate shot to become a real competitive REL format. Now think about the potential of format staples for that format if that format were made real. It's a huge upside.

Pauper singles have already asserted themselves in the marketplace. Cards that I wouldn't even have bothered to pick out of bulk two years ago now hold $5 price tags! Standard Bearer is now worth more than most of the rares in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Standard Bearer

The crazy thing is that Pauper isn't even a competitive format – yet. We've already seen a boom in Pauper prices over the past half year, but if we begin to see more large Pauper events, especially Competitive REL events, there will be another bump. That fact alone gives Pauper singles a huge upside that other cards don't have: the potential for a huge surge in tournament play. People who don't play Pauper now (because there are no Opens or Grand Prix) would now be buying cards.

The format is also expanding into new markets. As Pauper has picked up steam and more people are trying it out, it makes its way into more local game stores weekly. Pauper is a growing format and growing formats have rising single prices.

Bulk Is the Best Place to Buy Pauper Singles

I do a lot of the sorting and bulk-picking at my LGS. I can tell you that since Pauper has grown, that bulk is the absolute best value in Magic finance. It's not even close. There are a couple of reasons why this is true.

First of all, unless a player is intimately familiar with the Pauper metagame and what the decks are, it is difficult to know which cards are Pauper staples. Many of the chase Pauper singles are not cards that have been played in competitive Magic in any format before. In fact, I basically needed to learn Pauper in order to properly do Magic finance!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spore Frog

As the format gained in popularity the store was selling out of completely random singles. Well, not so random in the sense that they are Pauper staples. However, to the untrained eye, it seemed random: Goblin Cohort, Mogg Flunkies, Spore Frog, Tortured Existence, Tireless Tribe, Prophetic Prism, and the list goes on.

These are not what I would ever have considered "good cards." In fact, we were selling out of cards that I'd never sold a single copy of in fifteen years!

I learned the decks and cards of Pauper because it was necessary in order for me to acquire the cards the store needed. However, if I didn't have that affiliation with the store, and didn't learn Pauper, I would have had no idea these cards were desirable, playable and/or valuable.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gorilla Shaman

Which leads me to my next point: the majority of Magic players have no clue about Pauper singles. Sure, people know that Gush and Pyroblast have gone up. Ask a non-Pauper player to tell you about Pauper staples and they'll just stare blankly at you. Either people know, or they don't, which creates a very uneven playing field and a lot of opportunities.

The best way to get ahold of this value is simply to buy bulk commons. The reasons is that most people don't know the Pauper singles well enough to properly pick all the value out. Most people know to pick out the good commons and uncommons: Brainstorm, Ponder, Lightning Bolt, Expedition Map, etc. People know because these are all-stars in the more widely played Constructed formats like Modern and Legacy.

New formats have new staples, and until the greater part of the community catches up and learns the format, it is an uneven playing field that favors those in the know. Pauper has seemingly doubled the number of $1 commons in the past few months, which means there are twice as many potential cards of worth to be found in bulk. The other key difference is that when it comes to the new half, many people don't know to pull them out before they bulk them out!

I could also see the price of bulk starting to trend up as more retailers figure out that bulk is a great place to find Pauper staples. This means that now is the perfect time to be picking up bulk, since you'll be able to potentially "double dip." In other words, we can buy bulk now, when it has a higher probability of not being searched for the Pauper staples (which also have the upside of spiking if the trend of large Pauper events continues), and then sell the searched bulk for a better price if it is in higher demand later.

Happy picking!

Daily Stock Watch – Hall of the Bandit Lord

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Hello, readers and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! It has been hard to find cards that are multi-format superstars (sees play in at least two to three formats) that aren't considered staples yet so we'll talk about one that could actually make the cut if it makes a strong push to become one. It stayed as a fringe Commander card for some time but thanks to some of our Japanese friends, this card might be able to make a case as an actual Modern threat.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hall of the Bandit Lord

Hall of the Bandit Lord just peaked today with its all-time high of $12.51. It is a legendary land that gives your chosen creature some steroids so it could go bananas on the turn it hits play, and something of this caliber could set off some nice fireworks in formats where a combo piece could just end the game on the turn it hits play. Wondering how you could abuse this card? Check out this fun deck that Atsushi Ito created some time last year and it's starting to look like it could actually be a tournament-viable deck.

All in Devotee

Creatures

1 Walking Ballista
1 Wild Cantor
4 Devoted Druid
4 Vizier of Remedies
1 Duskwatch Recruiter
4 Street Wraith

Instants and Sorceries

4 Summoner's Pact
4 Pact of Negation
4 Commune with Nature
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
3 Manamorphose
3 Unbridled Growth

Other Spells

4 Mishra's Bauble
1 Conjurer's Bauble
4 Oath of Nissa

Lands

1 Forest
2 Temple Garden
3 Verdant Catacombs
2 Misty Rainforest
2 Horizon Canopy
4 Hall of the Bandit Lord

Sideboard

4 Mirran Crusader
4 Qasali Ambusher
4 Path to Exile
2 Reclamation Sage
1 Mystic Enforcer

The tandem of Devoted Druid and Vizier of Remedies has brought Creatures Toolbox to new heights and this rendition of their tagteam is no stranger to that approach. One problem that players of that deck has encountered is the inability of the druid or vizier to stay alive before it could actually combo out (if it didn't come in to play at the end of your opponent's turn via Collected Company) and this is where Hall of the Bandit Lord comes in. By giving the Devoted Druid haste, it allows you to beat your opponent on turn three consistently or even as early as turn two with the help of Wild Cantor or Manamorphose. Having access to infinite mana allows you to dig for your entire deck with the help of Oath of Nissa, Traverse the Ulvenwald or your Duskwatch Recruiter (given that it stays alive) with the support of Pact of Negation. It is a pretty sweet combo that unsuspecting opponents wouldn't survive if they don't know about your deck yet -- and we're only talking about how good Hall of the Bandit Lord could be with one creature in this case.

Legendary Lands

My late grandfather once told me that it's best to invest in real estate, and I have no qualms that it is best to do that same thing even in Magic. We've seen Mikokoro, Center of the Sea resurface in Masters 25, so seeing some of these lands in the future wouldn't be entirely impossible. However, they should continue to gain more value in the coming years barring the dreaded reprint that will cause its stock to crash. I like how Hall of the Bandit Lord is positioned now in the coming months, so let's start buying in while we can.

At the moment, StarCityGames is out of stock of normal copies of Hall of the Bandit Lord for $13.99. Card Kingdom, ChannelFireball and TCGPlayer still have copies for anywhere between $12.75 up to $13.99. I'm not sure how popular this card is in your LGS, but you should be able to trade for them at the $10 threshold at this point in time. It's not really a popular card to begin with, but its stock will continue to climb in the coming months. Stay away from foils if you could as an encore of what WotC did to Boseiju could also happen to this card.

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we continue to speculate on cards that might be on the rise, or try to get rid of the ones that are at risk of losing value. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Not Done Yet: Decks Exceeding Expectations

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Throughout Modern's history, decks have risen and fallen in popularity. One of the most critical factors driving these shifts on the metagame ladder are changes to the card pool; a new set or a timely edit to the banned and restricted list can send a deck's stock soaring or tumbling. However, not all of the moves we see in response to such changes are based on results and extensive testing. Sometimes, speculation drives a deck to an unsustainable high or an undeserved low. When this occurs, the metagame is often quick to compensate.

I find that the more informative of these two categories is which decks are being underrated. Being at the helm of a well-positioned but unexpected strategy yields a strong advantage come tournament time.

In this article, we'll discuss some decks that I feel were burdened with low expectations in the current metagame, and the reasons why they have been currently punching above their weight.

Looming Shadows

I feel that the foremost example of this phenomenon is Grixis Shadow. Bloodbraid Elf's unbanning threatened its supremacy as the premier rock midrange deck, and as such many pilots abandoned the strategy. However, time has proven that the deck has not lost any of its potency, and required very minimal adjustments to continue putting up results.

Grixis Shadow, by Alexander Miennert (22nd Place, SCG Open Milwaukee)

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
3 Gurmag Angler
4 Snapcaster Mage
4 Street Wraith
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Instants

2 Dismember
4 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
3 Stubborn Denial
1 Temur Battle Rage
4 Thought Scour

Sorceries

2 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Serum Visions
4 Thoughtseize

Lands

1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Island
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Steam Vents
1 Swamp
2 Watery Grave

Sideboard

2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Collective Brutality
1 Disdainful Stroke
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Kozilek's Return
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
2 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Pyroclasm
1 Stubborn Denial
1 Temur Battle Rage
2 Young Pyromancer

This 75 demonstrates some interesting adjustments the deck has made to keep pace with the rest of the metagame. One of the major draws to playing Shadow was always that it had the ability to finish games more quickly than other midrange decks, thanks to its namesake creature getting gigantic as the pilot's life total dipped, and Temur Battle Rage serving as an "I win" button in combination with it.

In order to further leverage this gameplan, we see that Gurmag Angler has become the delve beater of choice over Tasigur, the Golden Fang. While the Zombie Fish is a bit tougher to cast, it's still well within possibility on turn two when coupled with Thought Scour and a couple of fetchlands, which the deck is built to assemble. Angler rewards its pilots for this extra investment by providing more power, which is relevant when going toe-to-toe with the likes of Tarmogoyf. It also dodges the occasional annoyance of having a Tasigur on the battlefield, with a second copy unhelpfully stranded in the pilot's hand.

The sideboard also features an array of tech. The Liliana of the Veil-oriented sideboard plan that past versions of Grixis Shadow employed isn't especially well-positioned against the current crop of midrange decks, so it's being swapped out for Young Pyromancer. This is a key innovation in my mind, as one of the major ways to combat Shadow's big beaters is with edict effects and heavy-duty spot removal, neither of which is especially effective against the combination of Pyromancer with Kolaghan's Command.

Bogles has also begun to make more regular appearances at the top tables, and Engineered Explosives is among Shadow's best answers to the aura-based menace when Leyline of Sanctity prohibits them from picking their opponent's hand apart. The Grixis wedge has enough tools to adapt to most metagames, but that adaption takes a little time. Now, Grixis Shadow looks to be alive and well.

Clash of the Titans

Next up is a deck that's been floating in and out of the metagame in its current incarnation in Amulet Titan. Since Summer Bloom's banning way back in January of 2016, fans of Amulet of Vigor have been tinkering with the land-centric shell in order to make up for the loss in explosiveness. Because of that, the deck has become an interesting hybrid between the blisteringly fast combo deck of old and a value machine using Tolaria West to find some handy silver bullets.

Amulet Titan, by Daryl_Ayers (6-2, Modern MOCS Monthly #11275291

Creatures

4 Azusa, Lost but Seeking
4 Primeval Titan
1 Reclamation Sage
4 Sakura-Tribe Scout
1 Walking Ballista

Artifacts

4 Amulet of Vigor
1 Engineered Explosives

Instants

1 Pact of Negation
4 Summoner's Pact

Sorceries

4 Ancient Stirrings
4 Explore

Lands

1 Bojuka Bog
1 Boros Garrison
1 Cavern of Souls
4 Forest
4 Gemstone Mine
1 Ghost Quarter
3 Gruul Turf
1 Khalni Garden
1 Radiant Fountain
1 Selesnya Sanctuary
4 Simic Growth Chamber
1 Slayers' Stronghold
1 Sunhome, Fortress of the Legion
3 Tolaria West
1 Vesuva

Sideboard

3 Dismember
1 Hornet Queen
4 Obstinate Baloth
3 Relic of Progenitus
1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed
3 Spell Pierce

One major change this deck has made over the pre-ban versions is streamlining the colors of the spells being cast. While the original edition of this deck splashed blue for Hive Mind and Serum Visions, the current deck is almost entirely green, and employs Explore as its cantrip of choice. This makes the deck highly consistent, as the vast majority of land combinations enable it to cast spells effectively.

Tolaria West is the deck's most versatile card, enabling the deck to play all kinds of useful pieces beyond the Summoner's Pacts that act as functional copies of threats or disruption. Engineered Explosives hits all kinds of cards in a deck that can produce all five colors of mana, Walking Ballista weaponizes a stagnant board state with lots of excess mana or remove any troublesome early creatures, and Pact of Negation protects the combo. Together, they give this deck more game than would immediately be apparent from just looking at its primary engine.

The sideboard demonstrates that the pilot was really only concerned with two types of opponents: fast combo decks that demand disruption (Storm), and highly disruptive decks that complicate executing the primary gameplan (Jund, Jeskai). For the former category, the combination of Relic of Progenitus, Spell Pierce, and Dismember covers most common exemplars of these archetypes, while value creatures such as Hornet Queen, Obstinate Baloth, and Ruric Thar, the Unbowed are quality threats to slam against interactive opponents. As a whole, the deck looks to have plenty of game against the field, and should reward pilots willing to brave its notorious learning curve.

Beginning of the End

Due to the nature of hosers in Modern, the fortunes of most linear decks wax and wane rather dramatically depending on how many hurdles you can expect to face in postboard games. In the case of Living End, graveyard hate has become a fixture of many sideboards thanks to fair decks' increased reliance on it as a resource. A timely Relic of Progenitus or Rest in Peace shuts down everything from Gurmag Angler to Bedlam Reveler to Tarmogoyf, which makes playing an entirely graveyard-centric deck a somewhat dicey proposition. The deck struggled in the face of these cards to the point that a combo-control spinoff on it that was better-equipped to fight the hate enjoyed some success for a time.

However, the resurgence of Jund and other board-dependent midrange decks that cannot afford to play quality graveyard hate has ameliorated the graveyard-related hostility in most sideboards, which in turn opened up a niche for the timeless cycling-intensive deck.

Living End, by Henry Scipio (9th Place, SCG Modern Open Milwaukee)

Creatures

3 Archfiend of Ifnir
4 Desert Cerodon
2 Faerie Macabre
4 Fulminator Mage
4 Horror of the Broken Lands
4 Monstrous Carabid
3 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Street Wraith

Instants

2 Beast Within
4 Violent Outburst

Sorceries

3 Demonic Dread
1 Kari Zev's Expertise
3 Living End

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Copperline Gorge
1 Forest
2 Grove of the Burnwillows
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
2 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs

Sideboard

1 Anger of the Gods
2 Blood Moon
2 Faerie Macabre
3 Ingot Chewer
2 Lost Legacy
2 Ricochet Trap
3 Shriekmaw

The creature base hasn't changed much since it got its last quality batch of cycling creatures in Amonkhet, which has made the deck very difficult to beat if its namesake spell resolves.What has occurred is consolidation: weaker cyclers the deck was forced to use in ages past such as Architects of Will and Deadshot Minotaur are definitively gone, and Archfiend of Ifnir & co. have cemented their place in the 60. Beyond that, sticking to the full playset of Fulminator Mage seems like a great way to combat both big mana and fair decks, and the singleton Kari Zev's Expertise can get a drawn Living End out of hand, turning an ordinarily disastrous event into a positive.

Sideboard-wise, we have a spicy new addition in Lost Legacy. Being able to proactively strip sideboarded answers from opposing decks goes a long way towards making postboard games more tractable, and helps in the combo mirror. The addition of Blood Moon may seem curious for a deck that's somewhat color-intensive, but the money cards for Living End are the cascade enablers, and both of them use red mana. After accumulating a critical mass of cyclers, End can slap down Moon and gum up its enemy's plan, providing time to find and cast a Living End. This 75 looks pretty well-tuned for the current metagame, and I wouldn't be surprised if the deck experienced a small resurgence.

Repeat Ad Nauseam

We now come to a former mainstay among the combo decks in the format in Ad Nauseam. This resilient, consistent strategy was seemingly always hanging around until recently, when the popularity of Grixis Shadow made suiting up with it a tough sell. While the Shadow menace persists, it's not quite at the level it was when it pushed Ad Nauseam to the fringes of Modern, and thus some pilots have found success with it again.

Ad Nauseam, by Cake363 (5-0, MTGO Competitive League)

Creatures

1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Artifacts

4 Lotus Bloom
3 Pentad Prism

Enchantments

4 Phyrexian Unlife

Instants

4 Ad Nauseam
4 Angel's Grace
1 Lightning Storm
3 Pact of Negation
1 Pyretic Ritual
3 Spoils of the Vault

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand

Lands

2 City of Brass
3 Darkslick Shores
4 Gemstone Mine
1 Island
1 Plains
3 Seachrome Coast
3 Temple of Deceit
2 Temple of Enlightenment
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Sideboard

1 Blazing Archon
1 Echoing Truth
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
3 Gifts Ungiven
1 Hurkyl's Recall
4 Leyline of Sanctity
1 Silence
1 Slaughter Pact
1 Thoughtseize
1 Unburial Rites

Ad Nauseam's maindeck is famously rigid, and this 60 is no exception; a singleton Pyretic Ritual is the only card that stands out as unusual to me. Instead, the spicy tech is in the sideboard: a Gifts Ungiven package threatens opponents on an angle they are unlikely to be prepared to defend in game two, which can result in some free wins. At a minimum, Gifts likely draws out countermagic or a discard spell from the disruption-minded, which can provide the pilot with an opening to resolve their namesake spell. And the Gifts package incentivizes opponents to keep in heavy-duty removal, which flops against the rest of the deck.

Closing Out

It's becoming increasingly apparent that Modern is experiencing an exquisite state of balance. There are lots of playable archetypes at the competitive level, and the gap between metagame mainstays and fringe players is about as slim as I can ever it remember it being. In such a climate, it is foolish to dismiss any deck's prospects, as a competent pilot with the right pairings can lead many an archetype to a strong finish. If you have any examples of decks that have been punching above their weight, or ones that you feel have been seeing less play than they deserve, drop me a line in the comments.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for April 11th, 2018

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 9, 2018. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low or mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although Hour of Devastation (HOU), Amonkhet (AKH), Aether Revolt (AER), and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

Standard

Even in the late stages of a format there's still room for innovation. Although not taking the top spot, an innovative God-Pharoah's Gift deck made a splash at Grand Prix Seattle. The deck helped three players make the top eight and Combat Celebrant showed up as four of in each version, vaulting the card from the near bulk price of 0.5 tix last week to a peak of over 3 tix on Monday.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Combat Celebrant

Bomat Courier was also all over the top eight decks with twenty-eight copies played, all of them in the main. This card has also peaked over 3 tix for the first time in its history. A colourless Raging Goblin with some upside is a bit of a surprise to see such widespread adoption but stranger things have happened.

With Dominaria (DOM) going to be released online next week, Standard is going to be ripe for brewing and fluctuating card values. One thing to keep in mind is the new way that sets were released starting with Rivals of Ixalan (RIX). If preview events return in a similar way for DOM, then there will be a day or two of Draft and Sealed leagues, followed by a break for the paper prerelease, with leagues restarting on the following Monday. It was the break for paper prereleases that shot card prices much higher, pushing a set of RIX from 160 tix to 260 tix in two days. Speculating on that type of price movement is clearly possible but I would hesitate to recommend it until the nature of DOM's release on MTGO is confirmed and only for the most attentive speculators.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Isolated Chapel

Outside of the wild west that could ensue from DOM's release, look for the Innistrad (ISD) opposing colour check lands to be legal in Standard starting next Wednesday after the downtime. From Wednesday into the weekend will be a great selling window for these as they become legal in Standard but still not widely available from the new set as limited events get started. After that, their prices will start to be determined less by scarcity and more by how they impact the Standard metagame.

Modern

Not to be outdone on the innovation front, an interesting take on Affinity has posted two perfect records in Modern leagues in the past week. Although it still features two of the Affinity lords in Steel Overseer and Arcbound Ravager, these are present because of the strong +1/+1 counter theme that the deck pushes. To wit, Hangarback Walker and Walking Ballista both show up as fours in the deck and even Nissa, Voice of Zendikar shows up as a two.

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There's lots of redundancy in the deck with Welding Jar as a way to protect key artifacts and then Hardened Scales and Throne of Geth to amp up the distribution of counters. It's hard to say if this is a flash in the pan and is catching opponents by surprise or whether or not this is a real innovation in Modern. I think there's a ton of consistency here, even if the deck looks to be a bit wonky. This will be definitely one to keep an eye on and it looks like a lot of fun to boot!

A new preview card from DOM will no doubt be giving the Goblin tribe a boost in Modern and that card is Skirk Prospector. Although Goblin Warchief is a powerful reprint as well, the one drop could have a bigger impact as it opens up a new opportunity for a Goblins deck to expand into a combo space. A card that could be utilized along with Skirk Prospector is Fecundity. The prospector combined with this enchantment and Mogg War Marshall will net you three cards and one red mana. That's a good starting point and triggering Storm on Empty the Warrens could get a little nutty!

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I think Fecundity is a great pick up below 0.5 tix. It's a card that has only been heavily drafted from Eighth Edition, the dawn of MTGO. Urza's Saga was never widely drafted as it was released on MTGO years after it was printed in paper. With a low supply, any sign of Modern potential will push this card over the 1 tix level and if a Goblins deck emerges that has combo potential featuring Fecundity then a price at the 5-tix level is certainly possible. I put one hundred copies into the portfolio this week and I anticipate adding more.

On the big picture front, Modern is going to suffer a short-term decline with the release of DOM, the most hyped Standard set in recent memory. I've been selling off most of my play sets in the past week, but I still have a few outstanding specs that I can be patient on. I won't be looking to redeploy tix into Modern in a substantial manner until the fall.

Elsewhere, prices on sets of Eldritch Moon (EMN) and Shadows Over Innistrad (SOI) rebounded this week. These are in the late stages of being available for redemption so be sure not to be caught with junk mythic rares in your binder in a few weeks. There will probably be one last buying spree as redeemers seek to extract the value from their online holdings so if you are holing more valuable cards too, look for an uptick in prices in the next ten days and don't be afraid to be a seller into strength.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. This week I picked out a couple of Pauper staples that saw a reprint in Masters 25 (A25), namely Exclude and Diabolic Edict. There's no short-term play here, but Pauper is a format on the rise and prices on these reprinted cards are cheap at the moment relative to their longer-term price levels. In the next year, I anticipate a return to the 1.0 to 1.5 tix range for Diabolic Edict and the 1.5 to 2.5 tix range for Exclude.

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If you are thinking about trying out some long-term speculating or are thinking about getting into Pauper, it's a great time to be looking at cards from A25. Drafting of that set has concluded and so supply is drying up, but with DOM set to be released there won't be much interest in Pauper. Be sure to stick a playset or two into your collection this week.

Insider: Commander Picks from Dominaria (Gold)

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Welcome back, readers!

Normally I try to do a review of each upcoming set from the eternal viewpoint (Commander, Modern, Legacy, and Vintage) and that typically requires two articles. However, Dominaria seems chock full of amazing Commander cards (like Ixalan but on steroids) so I'm going to have to break this one up into a few articles.

What's interesting about this set is that there is a heavy focus on the legendary super type—so much so that we have a lot of good uncommon legendaries, which is definitely...uncommon. All that being said, let's dig in.

Tatyova, Benthic Druid

Tatyova is actually one of the cards I am most looking forward to upon this set's release. Simic decks love doing two things: drawing cards and ramping. The fact that this triggers whenever a land enters the battlefield (instead of when you play a land like Horn of Greed) is bonkers.

I think that this set will likely be opened a whole lot (thanks to the Commander crowd) so it's unlikely that nonfoils of this card itself will hold much of a price tag. My targets for this series will be cards that play well with these new goodies from Dominaria. There are some obvious inclusions in a deck that uses her as a general:

  • Oracle of Mul Daya - Obviously playing additional lands in this deck generates a lot of additional value. Unfortunately, thanks to dodging any reprints, current copies of Oracle retail for $23-$25. While I could easily see the card moving up to $30, the potential for profits is rather limited. (I'm a bigger fan of cheap cards that jump a large percentage over expensive cards that jump a minor percentage.)
  • Boundless Realms - This card seems insane with her in play. For seven mana you double the number of lands you control, draw that many cards, and gain that much life. Foils on this card are surprisingly cheap, with copies in the 1.2-to-1.5-times multiplier range. After finding this out, I ordered a few for myself just to have.
  • Wayward Swordtooth - Whenever WotC prints a card that says, "you may play an additional land each turn," I always keep my eye on it. The fact that this card is Standard-legal (and will be for quite some time) means there's some potential for these two cards to find a home in a Standard-legal deck.
  • Burgeoning - This card has been on my spec list for quite some time (and I've picked up a few copies here and there for my spec box). It's very similar to Exploration—you don't get the extra mana immediately, but it also scales in power level with the number of players. The biggest challenge I've seen with it is that you often run out of lands from your hand pretty quickly (at least when you can't refill), however, thanks to the card draw with Tatyova you could potentially churn through your deck.
  • Exploration - Unfortunately, Exploration has rebounded nicely after its original drop thanks to being reprinted in the original Conspiracy set (and I did advocate picking copies up when they were sitting at $7 back in 2015). This card likely falls into the same category as Oracle of Mul Daya—it will move upward, but with the high buy-in the percent gains likely won't be worth tying up the amount of money necessary to turn a good profit.

Adeliz, the Cinder Wind

I'm nowhere near as excited about this one. It is a 2/2 flying haste creature so it could turn into a decent one-vs-one Commander (or for Tiny Leaders if that ever came back into the spotlight). It definitely has some potential in a Wizards-themed deck, but the problem is you'd want a deck that has both a lot of Wizards and a lot of instants and sorceries.

Luckily, there are some cards that create Wizard tokens, and they are both cheap (i.e. low buy-in). I'm personally not convinced enough in this card as a commander (I think it's more likely to play a supporting role in a Grixis Wizards deck).

  • Docent of Perfection - This Eldritch Moon flip card definitely plays extremely well with Adeliz (creating 1/1 Wizards that get pumped for the turn, assuming you stack the triggers correctly. Eldritch Moon, while recent, was not a set with a lot of Standard staples. Thus the few cards that are staples are worth a good bit (looking at you, Collective Brutality and Liliana, the Last Hope). This definitely seems like a card that would be an auto-include in any Adeliz deck, so if such a deck materializes this card will likely double up.
  • Lullmage Mentor - Another $1 card that could easily double up should the deck take off; this one is a bit older (from Zendikar) and has a powerful secondary ability (though it does require the subtype Merfolk instead of just Wizard).

Slimefoot, the Stowaway

Slimefoot is another one I'm excited about getting access to. Saprolings are a subtype that has been around for a long time in Magic's history and there are a lot of older cards that create them. The fact that he can make Saprolings for generic mana and without tapping means there is definitely some potential for abuse.

He also comes with a restricted Blood Artist ability which serves as a fantastic win condition that doesn't target (though sadly it is damage rather than life loss, which is relevant sometimes).

I think Slimefoot will definitely be a somewhat popular commander in the next year ahead, as he seems to have a lot of potential as a powerful general thanks to both those abilities. Interestingly enough, there are currently zero cards (discounting any in Dominaria) that actually have the subtype of Saproling. Now what cards seem like an auto-include in this type of deck?

  • Nemata, Grove Guardian - I actually built a deck around this card when it was Standard-legal and the ability to sacrifice the Saprolings to pump the rest made blocking a nightmare for my opponents. This card plays beautiful with Slimefoot as she provides a sacrifice outlet to trigger his triggered ability, a slightly discounted way to create Saprolings, and the sacrifice trigger pumps all other Saprolings you have. And of course I can't leave out that she's a rare from Planeshift (which was not a widely opened set). Currently copies are in the $1-$1.5 range—should a Slimefoot deck take off, she could easily be a $4-$6 card.
  • Elvish Farmer - To be fair I think the whole "spore counter" thing is not where you'll want to be in any Commander decks (as it's just too slow for minimal gain. However, this is a rare from Fallen Empires that provides another sacrifice outlet. I wouldn't go and buy up a bunch of these (as Fallen Empires was pretty terrible), but if you have any in bulk it's likely worth picking them out and seeing if it goes anywhere.
  • Life and Limb - I will be the first to state that including this card in your Commander deck is very risky. Turning all Forests into any type of creature opens you up to a wrath turning into a wrath plus Armageddon. However, it also means that all the Saprolings you create tap for G, which if you can give them haste can get out of hand very quickly. This card is also sitting in the $1-$1.5 range with only a single printing as a rare in Planar Chaos, so any demand increase will likely cause it to double up (or more).
  • Saproling Symbiosis - A rare from Invasion (with no reprints), this card is currently sitting at $3 already; however, doubling the number of creatures you have in play at potentially instant speed is definitely powerful.
  • Spontaneous Generation - Currently a bulk rare from Mercadian Masques, this definitely doesn't seem as powerful as Saproling Symbiosis. However, thanks to cards like Praetor's Counsel, it can generate a lot of tokens for four mana.
  • Utopia Mycon - The only uncommon I've listed so far, this one has the slow spore-counter generation like Elvish Farmer, but it's sacrifice ability plays better with Slimefoot's abilities. Ironically, despite being an uncommon from a newer set than any other I've listed, it's actually $2.50 already thanks to casual demand, so it could easily see a jump to $5.
  • Tendershoot Dryad - Our Standard-legal reincarnation of Verdant Force. Any green token deck should have no issue getting to the City's Blessing, and while the focus of this article is on the Commander ramifications, it does seem possible that these two paired in Standard could form a deck.

Tiana, Ship's Caretaker

To be honest I'm not that impressed with this one. The only reason to build a deck around it is the second ability, which does seem pretty awesome with umbras (essentially making her indestructible). That said, the best umbra (Bear Umbra) is green and thus couldn't be included in any deck with her as the Commander. She could combo with cards that benefit from sacrificing artifacts (like Krark-Clan Ironworks), but I'm not sure what else would go in that deck.

Shanna, Sisay's Legacy

Shanna seems like a great support card in a token-based deck, as a solid finisher that's hard to interact with. But those decks have better generals already. That being said, I could see her finding a home in a one-vs-one Commander archetype with a lot of one- or two-drops that plays very aggressively. Unfortunately, that style of Commander is not one I'm intimately familiar with, so I don't have much else to say about this one.

Rona, Disciple of Gix

Rona is hard to get a good read on, but the abilities seem powerful. The first essentially gives you flashback on any historic card; the second is library manipulation that puts the cards in "cold storage" to potentially be used whenever.

The fact that artifacts as a whole count as historic, and that blue-black tends to be a powerful artifact color combination, does hint that this card could end up as the commander of some artifact-based Dimir combo deck. Currently we have no legendary instants or sorceries, but if they should materialize (and are powerful), it might be worth taking another look at Rona.

Raff Capashen, Ship's Mage

At first I thought this card was rather unassuming. But the fact that all artifacts count as historic make it more appealing, and while Esper and Dimir are most known for artifact-based decks, Azorius isn't far behind. Flashing in artifacts at instant speed could be extremely powerful, especially when you factor that Raff himself comes with flash.

Unfortunately, while this may make for a powerful build, it's not likely to include anything that isn't already seen in your typical Esper artifact build. I wouldn't be surprised if Raff was simply slotted into that archetype rather than creating a new one.

Hallar, the Firefletcher

A 3/3 with trample that grows and has a pretty powerful ability seems like it has some solid potential. Unfortunately—and this is a big unfortunately—his second ability only triggers when spells are kicked. While we have had kicker in a fair number of sets, the number of playable cards with kicker that can be put into a red-green deck is fairly limited.

That being said, here is a list of a few with some potential:

  • Hunting Wilds - Green decks already like ramp spells, so here's one with a pretty solid upside. It was printed at uncommon (so the price ceiling is lower than a rare or mythic), but it was also only printed in Planar Chaos.
  • Thicket Elemental - While the base creature isn't anything spectacular, the low kicker cost and the ability to cheat a creature into play is very strong. One could argue this ability is on par with cascade—while you're limited to creature spells, the mana cost is irrelevant and it can't be countered as it's put directly into play. In addition to the original Invasion printing there's one from the Nissa vs. Ob Nixilis Duel Deck, so the price ceiling is definitely lower than it would have been otherwise.
  • Strength of the Tajuru - This card tends to see play mostly in Elf decks (or other decks that play a lot of creatures and generate a lot of mana). It also plays extremely well with Hallar's abilities, adding a lot of +1/+1 counters and triggering his second ability.
  • Goblin Ruinblaster - A more recent uncommon, so the ceiling is pretty low. But one that would play well in Commander, as targeted land destruction can be very useful. I would definitely imagine this card would find a home in most Hallar decks.
  • Skizzik - If the Hallar deck is playing a very aggressive strategy (perhaps as a one-vs-one deck), then Skizzik could easily find a home as it's a very aggressive card and the kicker cost is low.
  • Urza's Rage - The list wouldn't be complete with arguably the most famous of the kicker cards (I remember when this was Standard-legal and Urza's Rage was the most expensive card in Invasion). Nowadays 11 mana for 10 uncounterable/unpreventable damage doesn't seem that impressive. But if your goal is to kill one opponent as quickly as possible, having an ace up your sleeve that's so difficult to deal with isn't bad.

Arvad the Cursed

There's a reason why Vampire Nighthawk used to buylist for $1, even after it rotated out of Standard. Casuals love deathtouch and lifelink. That being said, this is another difficult-to-evaluate legendary creature.

The abilities are actually very powerful and coming with a built-in Day of Destiny seems very relevant. The problem I see is that most Orzhov decks that play a lot of creatures tend to be token decks, and he doesn't help at all with that. An Arvad deck would need to play a lot of legendary creatures in it to really benefit from the static ability (which is arguably the reason to play him).

He does come with two very relevant creature types (Vampire and Knight) which have some Magic history behind them and plenty of support cards. Unfortunately, most of those support cards tend to favor playing that specific tribe as opposed to legendary creatures in general. I could see him being used in a deck chock full of cheap legendary creatures meant to aggressively kill the opponent as quickly as possible.

Conclusion

Dominaria is looking to be a fantastic set for us Commander players, with so many new options. This type of set is also amazing for MTG finance as Commander players often scour Gatherer for obscure cards to fill new decks and often we'll see massive price spikes in cards found in the most popular of these new Commander archetypes.

Next week I'll be focused on the rare and mythic legendary creatures from the set. Any obvious targets I missed? As always, I love to hear people's thoughts in the comments below.

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