menu

Video Series with Ryland: Hollow One

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hollow One has risen to become one of the most played decks in the format. Logan Nettles, Jaberwocki on both MTGO and Twitter, compiled data from the recent MOCS monthly event. He found that Hollow One had a metagame share of 12.7% in that event as well as a win rate of 61.60%—the highest in the event for both categories. Certainly this is only one event, and as such the sample size for this data is quite small in the statistics world. However, the data is not meaningless. At the very least, Modern players should take note: Hollow One is likely here to stay.

There was a time when—to me at the very least—the deck seemed like a fad. The inconsistent and explosive flavor of the month that would pass as soon as the excitement did. Instead, the lists have only gotten better, and the pilots more familiar and numerous. Meanwhile, the results have reflected it.

The deck has been the subject of a lot of discussion in the community, not just because of its relatively recent inception, but also  because of its random elements. Like all Magic decks, it has its own idiosyncrasies and little nuances that can make it difficult to play in its own right. However, cards like Burning Inquiry can certainly be frustrating for both sides of the table at times. Maybe your two-land opener on the draw is now a no-lander? Perhaps now you are flooded? Sometimes it feels like Inquiry solves all your problems, and sometimes it feels like you got triple Thoughtseized. This has led to the archetype receiving a lot of flak from the community as it has risen in popularity.

Love it or hate it, you'll want to keep Hollow One in mind as you prepare for any upcoming events. If you haven't already checked it out, I highly recommend looking into Logan Nettles's data on his Twitter. He did a lot of work to put that together and I think there is a ton of valuable information there; particularly in the era where it seems WotC is giving us less and less info about MTGO results.

Now for some actual games of Magic! Hopefully we can triple Thoughtseize our opponents while we cast four Hollow Ones. I'm sure it will work out that way! I hope you enjoy the matches and, as usual, I'm interested to hear what kind of content you'd like to see moving forward, so I can continue to evolve and improve my videos. Please let me know your thoughts, and any improvements you would like to see concerning formatting, presentation, or whatever else strikes your fancy. If you'd like to see similar content, check out my Twitch channel for some more live Modern!

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL261kJ_cAQC8KhWUOQAG4xXBV2tpSegOK]

Hollow One, by Ryland Taliaferro

Creatures

4 Hollow One
4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Flamewake Phoenix
3 Gurmag Angler
4 Street Wraith
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt

Sorceries

4 Burning Inquiry
2 Collective Brutality
4 Faithless Looting
4 Goblin Lore

Lands

3 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Mountain
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
2 Big Game Hunter
2 Blood Moon
1 Collective Brutality
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Fatal Push
2 Grim Lavamancer
3 Leyline of the Void

Insider: MTGO Market Report for April 4th, 2018

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 3, 2018. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low or mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although Hour of Devastation (HOU), Amonkhet (AKH), Aether Revolt (AER), and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

Standard

Ixalan (XLN) and Rivals of Ixalan (RIX) continue to be good value as they sit in the low 60 tix price range. With about two weeks left to go to draft this format, I am getting comfortable predicting a target price range that these two sets will reach. Below is a chart of the last five large sets and the price path they took before and after they were the main draft set. XLN is tracking the price path of Amonkhet (AKH) and I think it will continue to follow this path, ultimately reaching the 70 to 80 tix range by the middle of May or four weeks after drafting ends.

Next up is a similar chart but for the corresponding small sets from the two set block era. We are clearly in the flat price range that most of these sets experience in the final few weeks of heavy drafting before the release of the next draft format. I think for RIX that a price peak similar to Hour of Devastation (HOU) is most likely, hitting the 70 to 90 tix range by the middle of May.

I've been a heavy buyer of both of these sets in the past few weeks and I plan to continue buying both sets. With a low-end price target for both sets of 70 tix, as well as accounting for a ten percent spread between buy and sell prices, the safe buying threshold is 63 tix. This means current prices present a low chance for a loss and an excellent chance of being profitable.

On the singles front, Heart of Kiran from Aether Revolt (AER) is bumping up from 4 tix to over 5 tix this week. It's not clear to me if there is a catalyst for this move, but this card is one of the most powerful cards in Standard currently without a home in a top deck. The release of Dominaria (DOM) in a few weeks shake up the format and players might be thinking of brewing with this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heart of Kiran

Speaking of DOM, we haven't yet heard how it will be released on MTGO. For RIX, there were preview events just prior to the paper pre-releases. That set up a period of huge demand for the new cards with little supply to satisfy that demand and prices spiked over that weekend before coming back down to earth by Monday. A similar situation could unfold soon and it will be worth watching.

Announced this week is that Brawl is coming to MTGO on April 18. If you haven't heard, this is a new Commander format that uses only cards in Standard and sixty-card decks. This is going to be a popular format on MTGO, unlike the 1 v 1 Commander format which failed due to the density of powerful blue cards and tutors. That density led to a stale format dominated by base blue decks. Brawl will not face the same issues since it is Standard only.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brawl

On top of that, Block constructed used to be quite popular online and this new format will have a chance to fill that role of a format where brewers and players get to build and play lower power decks for prizes. The addition of new sets and Fall rotation will mean the format gets refreshed regularly, generating a new puzzle to delve into and solve.

In terms of actionable advice, I don't think there is anything to do at the moment. The singleton restriction will mean even a dominant Brawl deck won't have a big impact on demand for singles, at least initially. If the format takes off in popularity then fringe Standard cards will get a second life and could see a lift

Modern

After peaking at 116 tix at the end of February, Eldritch Moon (EMN) is down over twenty percent and sits at 89 tix. This type of drop is worth investigating for a potential rebound, especially while the set is still available for redemption. With only three weeks left before redemption goes offline, EMN is cheap but risky. I expect a rebound in the price as we approach the redemption cutoff date of April 25, but I don't think speculating on full sets over such a short time frame is a good idea. There's no guarantee that there's a wave of demand from redeemers still to come. Nevertheless, a further decline into the 70 to 80 tix range would be very enticing for them. If a price drop like this occurs in the next two weeks I would buy a few sets with an eye to reselling just before the end of redemption.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, the Last Hope

Elsewhere on the redemption front, Shadows Over Innistrad (SOI) has not seen a similar drop and remains in the mid 30 tix range. If you have held onto your SOI sets this long, there should be another price peak over the next couple of weeks. Unlike EMN, I would not be looking at SOI from a speculative standpoint though.

The end of Masters 25 (A25) drafting means we are seeing a recovery in some of the cards reprinted in this set. Blood Moon has gone back over 20 tix, while Ensnaring Bridge looks like it will try to break the 25 tix level in the next couple of weeks. One of the biggest gainers percentage wise is sideboard staple Rest in Peace, more than doubling from its initial low of 2 tix to now sit close to 5 tix.

Speaking of A25, look for boosters to drop in price over the next little while. At some point, these will become oversold since they will no longer be usable for Draft. Basically, these will be good targets when nobody else wants them. They've already dropped below 5 tix and I would be looking to buy somewhere below 4 tix.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. This week I've been paring down a couple of Modern positions in Domri Rade and Collected Company. Both have reached profitable levels but are having trouble jumping to outsized gains. I'm still in defensive mode for speculating on Modern as we approach the release of DOM so my overall bias is to be a seller. I want to have some tix on hand to be able to scoop up good deals so it's perfectly reasonable to be trimming the portfolio at this time.

Daily Stock Watch – Big Game Hunter

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello, readers and welcome to a new week of the Daily Stock Watch! The most recent Modern online tournaments have provided us with a clearer picture of what decks to expect in the upcoming months. BR Hollow One and Humans have been dominating lately and although a lot of players have been playing with Jund and Storm, they have been producing inferior results. Although this trend could push the rest of the field to adjust to a very aggressive metagame, cards that are performing well in the primary antagonists of the format are bound to see some price increase eventually. Such is the case for our card today, which also happens to be an ace off Hollow One's sideboard plan.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Big Game Hunter

BGH is no Goblin Lore, but it is in the deck for all the right reasons. With the growing number of decks that have chunky creatures with power four or greater, discarding this to a Goblin Lore, Faithless Looting or Burning Inquiry would mean a world of pain to your opponents. Any Human piece is capable of reaching four power at any time, with Mantis Rider as probably being the biggest threat along with a turn one Champion of the Parish. A mirror match would help you eliminate a Gurmag Angler or Hollow One with ease, and this is definitely Death's Shadow's most feared creature. Today, it is currently sitting at its all-time high of $4.48 as a one-of in the sideboard of arguably one of the top three best decks in the format, and it might not be a farfetched idea to pad the list with more copies of the card.

For reference, let's take a look at how the deck is stacked right now. This list just won a recent MTGO Modern Challenge, so it's a pretty recent update on how players prefer their builds to look like.

BR Hollow One

Creatures

4 Bloodghast
4 Flameblade Adept
4 Flamewake Phoenix
2 Gurmag Angler
4 Hollow One
4 Street Wraith
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang

Other Spells

4 Burning Inquiry
2 Collective Brutality
4 Faithless Looting
4 Goblin Lore
4 Lightning Bolt

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
3 Blackcleave Cliffs
2 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
3 Mountain
2 Scalding Tarn
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

2 Ancient Grudge
1 Big Game Hunter
1 Engineered Explosives
2 Fatal Push
3 Grim Lavamancer
3 Leyline of the Void
1 Lightning Axe
2 Thoughtseize

BGH is a pretty decent card if you have discard effects that could maximize its power via madness. Some decks have tried incorporating it to their lists with less success, but that doesn't mean that this card is only suited for Hollow One. There are some pretty tricky implications on when WotC decides to reprint cards with a certain mechanic, but this one is probably ripe for the picking anytime soon. I'm leaning towards seeing more of it in other decks if the metagame doesn't change anytime soon so I like our chances of snagging copies of this card for spec purposes at the moment.

Off the Board Superstars

Some of the most expensive cards in Modern are found in the sideboards of tier one decks. Above are some of these cards which you would always see getting boarded in for key match ups. Despite the power level of these cards, they still need roleplayers like BGH to join the fray in neutralizing opposing decks. The power of speculating lies in micromanaging these lesser players rather than churning out big bucks for the big guns. I'd rather invest in the likes of BGH, Rest in Peace, Stony Silence or Grafdigger's Cage for the time being.

At the moment, StarCityGames is out of stock of this card at $4.49. They should be restocking in that range soon enough but good news is that you could still find lots of it via TCGPlayer and Card Kingdom for anywhere between $2-$3.99 based on card condition. If you're not really picky about having used copies for playing purposes, now might be the best time to grab your copies. I'd suggest that you try to trade away some unwanted pieces and pick them up for $3 if possible. This could be a $5-$8 card easily if Hollow One continues to dominate the format along with Humans. Pick up foil copies at your own risk, as I'm not really sure as to when this might get reprinted.

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next time, as we continue to speculate on cards that might be on the rise, or try to get rid of the ones that are at risk of losing value. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Seeing the Spectrum: Is Modern More Unfair?

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

The phrase "I know it when I see it" is rather cliché and typically unhelpful. It is also frequently true: there are phenomena that are easy to observe and record, but actually defining them is a struggle. For instance, physicists cannot agree on a Grand Unified Theory despite broad agreement on its components; philosophical debates can get terrifyingly heated; and the legal definition of obscenity is literally "I know it when I see it." Similarly, in Magic, it can be easy to "see" overpowered or broken cards, but meaningfully defining these ideas is extremely difficult.

During a weekly Modern tournament at my LGS, another player observed that Modern seems much faster and more unfair to him since Bloodbraid Elf and Jace, the Mind Sculptor were unbanned. The observation sparked a lengthy discussion that really didn't get anywhere before the next round started, and the issue was dropped. However, I haven't been able to let the idea go. Today, I'm going to reexamine the meaning of fairness and then try answer the title question with actual data.

Fair vs. Unfair

When you ask players what it means to be unfair, they tend to give some variation of "I know it when I see it." They'll also give this answer for what fair means, infuriatingly enough. When I've pressed those players, I've been given wildly differing opinions on exactly what those terms mean, but there are a few common threads that I've gathered together to form my own definitions.

Fair: Playing the game of Magic according to the introductory rules

When players talk to me about playing fair Magic, they always circle back to the gameplay from the starter kits that were part of the old core sets. You play one land a turn, draw one card a turn, pay the full mana cost of your spells, and if you want to do more than that you have to pay an appropriate price in mana. This style of play encapsulates the slow and grindy, but easy to follow and learn, gameplay that Wizards pushes on newbies to help them learn the game.

The logical next step is to define unfair as the opposite of fair and go to lunch. However, that's not a useful definition. By that measure, almost every tournament-caliber deck is at least a little unfair. And fair enough, that's usually why they're played in the first place. However, a definition that broad is useless. If it includes too many things, it's not really defining anything. Granted, unfair Magic does involve breaking the rules, but in what way or to what degree?

Unfair: Breaking or exploiting the rules of Magic as a primary mode of gameplay

Doing something that breaks the rules isn't enough. To be truly unfair, a deck has to be deliberately unfair most of the time. Playing a card that draws extra cards for little price is not fair, but if the rest of the deck follows the rules, then on whole it's still fair. If instead you build the deck to really take advantage of drawing extra cards for no cost, then you're in unfair territory. The more rules you break to make your deck work, the more unfair you become.

The Fairness Spectrum

I see fairness as a spectrum. On the far fair side we have decks like pre-Bloodbraid Jund or Jeskai Control. They contain powerful cards and value efficiency, but play very close to the rules. Moving along the line, you have decks that utilize some cheats, but maintain a fundamentally fair gameplan.

As you approach the midpoint, you get into the ambiguous zone. I've discussed this area in the past and have always struggled to define it. Decks in this region are either doing something fundamentally fair in an unfair way, or are doing something unfair through fair means. Playing ramp strategies is reasonably fair; using ramp to perform a combo kill is not. Hard-casting huge creatures is fair; generating seven mana for Karn Liberated on turn three is not. Dropping aggressive creatures and pumping them up is a fair strategy, while dumping your entire hand in two turns and then attacking for 20 flying damage is not.

After this zone, you have the truly unfair decks. These rely on breaking rules to win. There are plenty of combo decks here, but this is also where you'd find the Eye of Ugin-powered Eldrazi decks from 2016. Here's a graphic to demonstrate:An interesting sidenote is that planeswalkers are hard to place on this spectrum. On the one hand, their initial effect is extremely fair: you pay the mana cost then use an ability. If compared to a spell, that is perfectly fair, especially considering how marginal a lot of planeswalker abilities are for their mana cost. However, the point of planeswalkers is that they remain in play and continuously generate advantage. This moves things towards unfair in my opinion. By how much and how quickly is the question, and I have no answer. It may simply be that planeswalkers are neither fair nor unfair.

Power is Irrelevant

The other thing to remember is that power is just power. Tarmogoyf is undercosted and incredibly powerful. It is also vanilla creature that only attacks or blocks, and is a perfectly fair card. The fact that it's better than anything else at that job has no bearing on its fairness. Wizards is always tweaking power levels. What is too powerful today can easily be par for the course tomorrow.

Obviously, brokenly unfair cards are incredibly powerful, but so is Thought-Knot Seer. As a four-drop, that card is powerful, but fine; alongside the unfair mana acceleration of Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple, it becomes busted. Therefore, raw power or efficiency is irrelevant as far as fairness is concerned.

Is Modern Shifting?

That the metagame is moving is an accepted fact. The return of Jund to prominence after nearly disappearing last year is proof enough. However, how exactly it is shifting and where the metagame is actually moving is unclear. Raw metagame data is unstable, and the picture I've gotten shifting through results is too muddy to deal with, so I'm going to simplify things to make it all comprehensible.

Comparative Analysis

Is there a difference in fairness from the pre-unban metagame to the current one? To answer this question, I'm going to take the 10 Tier 1 decks from before the ban and compare it to the current top ten decks from MTGGoldfish.

I am sorting these based on my criteria of the unfair component being critical to the operation of the deck. Most constructed decks cheat in some way (that's why they're playable); it's just a question of degree. For example, Death's Shadow decks cheat on mana cost thanks to delve, but they have to do a lot of setup work, and that keeps them out of the ambiguous zone, even if it's just barely. Similarly, abusing hexproof and denying the entire concept of interaction is the entire point of Bogles, and this rule-breaking pushes it into ambiguous fairness, if only barely. However, trying to define exactly how or where the decks fall introduces a lot more personal opinion than necessary, so I will stick to the broader categories. There's enough of that just in assigning categories.

Deck NameBroad Classification
Grixis ShadowFair
BurnFair
Gx TronAmbiguous
Jeskai TempoFair
RG ValakutAmbiguous
Eldrazi TronAmbiguous
AffinityAmbiguous
HumansFair
Gifts StormUnfair
Counters CompanyAmbiguous
Deck NameBroad Classification
HumansFair
JundFair
Gx TronAmbiguous
BR Hollow OneUnfair
Gifts StormUnfair
BurnFair
AffinityAmbiguous
GW BoglesAmbiguous
Grixis ShadowFair
Jeskai ControlFair

In December, there were four unequivocally fair decks, five ambiguously fair decks, and a single unfair deck. At the moment, there are five fair decks, three ambiguous decks, and two unfair decks. That's not substantially different. It is interesting that there's an additional unfair deck, but the sample is now primarily fair. This is still too little data to draw a meaningful conclusion, so I will expand into Tier 2.

Deck NameBroad Classification
AbzanFair
JundFair
UW ControlFair
DredgeUnfair
Traverse ShadowFair
Eldrazi and TaxesAmbiguous
UR BreachAmbiguous
Mardu TokensFair
RG PonzaAmbiguous
Lantern ControlUnfair
Deck NameBroad Classification
Eldrazi TronAmbiguous
UW ControlFair
UR BreachAmbiguous
DredgeUnfair
TitanshiftAmbiguous
Ad NauseamUnfair
PonzaAmbiguous
Mardu PyromancerFair
Counters CompanyAmbiguous
Bant CompanyFair

This is a stronger result. The old Tier 2 metagame had five fair decks, three ambiguous decks, and two unfair. The current one has three fair, five ambiguous, and two unfair decks. That is a noticeable change. Going into Tier 3 adds two fair, three ambiguous, and five unfair decks for the old meta and three fair, three ambiguous, and four unfair for the new.

Meaning

Overall, I don't think this data actually means anything. Taken together, the old metagame same had 11 fair decks, 11 ambiguous decks, and eight unfair, while the new one has 11 fair, 11 ambiguous, and eight unfair decks. In other words, the data as a whole shows no change. Therefore, it does not support that the metagame is more unfair, making the answer to my starting question "no." If it is perceived to be less fair, I believe that comes from seeing primarily Tier 2-3 decks, which had far more truly unfair decks in both time periods.

The Catch

Is Bloodbraid Elf a fair card? If it isn't, does that make a deck built around it or at least made to exploit it unfair as well? I ask because Jund used to be the paragon of fairness in Modern, but I'm not so sure anymore. A 3/2 with haste for four mana is fair, but making additional mana is not. With cascade, Bloodbraid generates 1-3 mana and a card for the price of the 3/2 with haste.

Having an unfair element doesn't necessarily mean a deck is unfair or even ambiguous, but building your deck around such a card does move a deck in an unfair direction. Comparing current lists to older ones reveals an incredible amount of change meant to maximize Bloodbraid's potency. If you count Bloodbraid as an unfair card, then a number of decks have moved closer to unfair status. RG Eldrazi is primarily a fair deck, but the mana acceleration from Eldrazi Temple makes it less fair. Counting Bloodbraid as unfair may move it into ambiguous status. This does not mean that it actually is unfair; I'd have to examine it more. Still, the picture is muddier than before.

The Transition Continues

Regardless of the actual trend in the format, it is clear to me that Modern is still in flux and unlikely to settle for some time. There has been tremendous change in Tier 1 according to this data, and that has a cascading impact on every other deck. We won't know with any certainty what the metagame is actually doing for another few months. My advice in the meantime is to enjoy the breathtaking diversity it while it lasts, as I believe the format will become solved eventually.

Insider: The Reprint’s Price Curve

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

When Eternal Masters first launched, many desirable eternal cards took a beating on price. The sudden shock of added supply took its toll and crushed the EV of the set. A surprise second print run didn’t help, and before long sealed boxes of the underappreciated set started selling for less than MSRP.

I remember it was around that time that I decided to grab a Mana Crypt for personal use. The card had just dropped to $70, and some MTG financiers were insisting the card would drop no lower. Well, that didn’t exactly pan out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Crypt

It turns out the card bottomed below $60, and I could have saved $15 or so if I had waited a bit longer. What interests me most, though, is the amazing recovery the card has experienced since bottoming last year. Now Mana Crypts sell for $100 and buylist for $77! This is a strong recovery, rising 28% from its lows.

This type of pattern—steep selloff, bottoming, and recovery—is becoming quite common in a world where Wizards of the Coast reprints cards left and right. And it’s this very pattern I want to study further this week.

Stage 1: The Selloff

The selloff stage is the most painful portion of the curve. It’s where a newly reprinted card’s price plummets as newfound supply floods the market. We see this all the time, and most recently with Masters 25 reprints. Even something with a strong demand profile like Jace, the Mind Sculptor can’t avoid the devastating effects of a reprint. It pre-sold for around $150 and now can be found for $100.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Something with less robust demand, such as Imperial Recruiter, will suffer even greater losses of value. The original printing of this once-$300 Legacy staple has a long ways to drop, still. But the reprinted version will only drop steeply at first and then will bottom out just like other playable reprints. The steepness of the curve may vary, but the shape will look very similar when the dust settles.

Everyone knows that reprints hurt the price of cards. That’s the point of them! They also know that if they hold cards that get the reprint treatment, those cards drop in value. The only way to avoid such trends is to sell before the reprint is announced. There’s not much of interest in this part of the curve unless you’re trying to get out before maximum damages are incurred, so I won’t linger long in this section. Just know that this is what generates the opportunities that arise in the second and third part of the curve.

Stage 2: The Bottoming

This is far more exciting. As a card hits its bottom, the price finally stabilizes and copies can be safely purchased without much downside. The duration of the bottom can vary from card to card, but every reprinted card with a demand profile will eventually bottom. In the case of Eternal Masters Mana Crypt, it took about six months for the card to finish its trough.

Since it takes time for a card to bottom, we can’t look at recent reprints to find examples. No Masters 25 in this section. Perhaps something from Iconic Masters or Commander 2017 would be bottoming around now. So let’s examine a couple cards to see if they may be in this stage—if they are, they could be solid pickups.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lightning Greaves

With infinity reprints, Lightning Greaves may not have a ton of upside. But it doesn’t have downside either—at least, not until it gets reprinted again. The Commander 2017 version of the card launched at $5, dropped to $3, and is now worth about $3.50. I would consider this one “bottomed,” and it will trend higher in the coming months. I could see it easily reaching its previous $5 high, but a reprint would reset the process all over again. Still, can one ever really have enough Lightning Greaves?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Captivating Vampire

Now we’re talking! I overlooked this creature at first, but it looks like the perfect example for this section of the curve. At launch, this card sold for $7 and it bottomed at around $2.50 just a couple months ago. Because the card was only reprinted once in Commander 2017, there aren’t a ton of copies out there.

If Vampires remains popular in Commander, I could see this card rebounding quite nicely throughout 2018. Barring an unlikely reprint, this is a very safe time to speculate on Captivating Vampire.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flusterstorm

I couldn’t find many more reprint targets in Commander 2017, but Iconic Masters is filled with them. It looks like most cards from this set are bottoming as we speak. Flusterstorm isn’t nearly as popular in Commander as Mana Crypt, but it does see Legacy play and that should help buoy demand.

The card’s price has been absolutely destroyed from reprint, going from $60 to $17! It may be dropping further too, judging by the still-declining curve. But this can’t go all that much lower and it should be bottoming out soon. Keep your eyes out because once supply starts to drop rather than rise, this could start an extremely gradual climb back toward $30.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Consecrated Sphinx

Consecrated Sphinx is the 24th most popular blue card in Commander according to EDH REC, showing up in 119,000+ lists. It has seen only this one normal reprint (I don’t really count the Invocation), and the reprint in Iconic Masters was done at mythic rare. It dropped from $21 to $12 before bottoming, and the curve appears to be inflecting upwards. Unless it's reprinted again, this card will only climb going forward.

In reality there are a ton more cards in Iconic Masters worth examining now. These are all bottoming or nearly bottoming and should march higher going forward. Mishra's Bauble, Ancestral Vision, and Aether Vial are all solid pick-ups based on their bottoming behavior.

Stage 3: The Recovery

This is where the money is made! After bottoming fully, a reprinted card will start to rise monotonically as supply is absorbed into the market. Eventually the reprint’s effect is muted as copies are acquired by players and stuck in decks, never to hit the market again.

Let’s take a look at some examples of cards that are in the recovery phase—while perhaps these cards have less room to run compared to those in the bottoming phase, they will require the smallest amount of wait time to see price appreciation because they’re already in recovery.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Horizon Canopy

I was going to use this Iconic Masters reprint in the previous section, but I noticed that Horizon Canopy had already bottomed and started its rebound. After plummeting from $75 to $33, the card has already rebounded and is now approaching $50.

I wish I had written this article two months ago because this would have been a tremendous pickup I could have flagged. Alas, the card still has some room to run and it wouldn’t surprise me to see it back near $70 six months from now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

Another Iconic Masters reprint, Cryptic Command just can’t seem to stay below $30. It’s been reprinted a few times, and it always seems to drop to $20, bottom there, and then rebound. This time the recovery got a boost thanks to the unbanning of Jace, the Mind Sculptor and ensuing speculation.

I don’t know if it’s worth speculating on this one though, since it has already recovered 100% of its losses and may take a while to hit higher prices. Perhaps if Jace does gradually warp Modern (which hasn’t happened yet) then Cryptic Command could surge higher. But I’d wait for tournament results to indicate this before jumping in at $30.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karakas

Going back to Eternal Masters, there are a bunch more examples we could examine. Karakas appears to be more in Stage 2 than Stage 3, just recently bottoming. But it has begun its recovery, rising from $35 to $40 since February.

It may never hit its release price of $105, but Karakas is popular enough in Legacy to merit a $50-$60 price tag in time. If you’ve been waiting to get copies of this card for personal use, I’d say now is the time to jump in. You’ll be paying more in six months, that’s my guess.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sylvan Library

Sylvan Library is a prime example of the trend I’m highlighting this week. Take a look at that textbook smile-shaped curve. The card initially sold for around $28 at launch, bottomed at about $15, and is now approaching $20. Given the utility of this card (25,000+ decks on EDH REC), this card will only climb in price going forward until it’s reprinted again.

Other good examples of cards in Stage 3 of their recovery include Toxic Deluge, Chrome Mox, and Enlightened Tutor. Each of these had bottomed months ago and is climbing relentlessly in price now. They all have further upside, too, as long as they dodge another reprint.

Wrapping It Up

I’ve been focused very heavily on Reserved List cards lately—it’s where the vast majority of my MTG investments lie. But I should not continuously ignore the opportunities given to us speculators by WotC reprints. They cause pain in the short term for those holding the reprinted cards, but they offer tremendous opportunity as they bottom and then recover in price. This three-stage trend occurs time and again, and it’s definitely worth discussing.

There are many opportunities out there with these reprinted cards. Eternal Masters and Iconic Masters sets are filled with them as cards bottom and begin their recovery. Hopefully some of the curves flagged in this column can highlight some targets worth your consideration.

There’s enough data out there from previous Masters sets that highlight these trends time and again. In each case, profits could have been made as cards go through all three stages. And despite all the uncertainty in MTG finance, one thing you can count on is that Wizards will continue to reprint cards and give us the chance to buy cards at lower prices.

…

Sigbits

  • Dual lands were on the top of Card Kingdom’s hot list for weeks. Maybe even months. Then suddenly out of nowhere, Drop of Honey popped back into the number-one slot. Now it’s buylisting for $420, probably an all-time high. Say what you will about the Reserved List, but if one of these older cards sees any demand from Legacy it seems the sky is the limit!
  • City of Traitors is another Reserved List card that Card Kingdom suddenly wants more of. They have the card on their buylist now for $115. That’s a pretty hefty price tag and it is likely driven by Legacy demand, yet again. It’s refreshing to see Legacy driving card prices again.
  • Let’s not forget the recent jump in Modern interest, likely thanks to the shake-up from unbanning Bloodbraid Elf and Jace, the Mind Sculptor. For the first time in quite a while it seems Dark Confidant is relevant again in the format. Card Kingdom has a buy price of $60 on original Ravnica copies. MTG Seattle is paying even more: $66. Four months ago the best buylist price for this card was $37. It was just $28 in January of last year, so $66 is quite the increase!

Insider: QS Cast #91: Cash Money Cast

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz, and Tarkan come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Dominaria Discussion - Saga Cards
  • Looking out for Major Retailer Bulk increases
  • New Sealed product - Dominaria Bundles

Cards We Discussed


Insider: Budget Options for Tournament Decks

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello Magic players, and welcome back!

Today, for the local LGS runners, I’ll be looking at some budget options for the current metagames in Standard and Modern. Specifically, I will be looking at reasonable substitute cards based on affordability when a card is out of stock, and other possible budget options as new players enter various different scenes.

Every time a few weeks pass, there are different possibilities in the Standard format, without fail. Whether it is as an SCG Open, a Pro Tour, or just a slightly larger weekend tournament such as a PPTQ, players all over the country are consistently clamoring for the “next big idea” in the format. Fortunately for everyone else, and thanks to the internet, we have all of these different options at our fingertips.

Standard Choices

Let’s start with the basics. Players who have just started out playing competitively, who generally only play at their LGS, or who happen to play competitively in Standard because they like the constant rotation, will all be looking for ways to circumvent the costs of the format.

Almost always, there are going to be mono-colored go-to options for budget players. If a player is looking to get into a format quickly, only needing basic lands or cheap uncommon lands with niche abilities makes it far easier to create a deck. Land bases, after all, have generally been the most expensive piece of a deck in most formats.

Option 1: Mono-White Tokens

This one is quite simple. A stack of Plains and some Shefet Dunes, and the manabase is ready to go. The deck is mostly a four-of deck, using cards like Sacred Cat and Servo Exhibition. Even Queen's Commission, while costing three mana, can create quite a swing in board state when followed up with a Master Trinketeer, and all of these cards are collectively a dollar (or less) per playset.

The more expensive cards in this archetype would be Legion's Landing and Anointed Procession, clocking in around $7 per copy for each. Angel of Invention is also a bit on the expensive side at $5 per copy.

This deck has no cards that cost more than $8 per card, fortunately. Shaving off a few copies of Field of Ruin from the manabase, and keeping the sideboard cheaper with cards such as Baffling End, Ixalan's Binding, and Thopter Arrest, can keep the total price of this deck well under $100 in total card value.

While Legion's Landing is quite powerful, playing cheaper effects such as Cartouche of Solidarity to create tokens while also generating value on cheap creatures can work wonders for the budget. Cartouche of Solidarity also has the added benefit of seeing fringe play in the Modern Bogles deck, so it has uses beyond this list for an investment of less than a dollar for a playset.

For the sideboard, Glory-Bound Initiate is also an excellent investment for life gain and anti-aggressive technology at the moment, which is under a quarter per copy and is a rare.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Glory-Bound Initiate

With Dominaria on the horizon, it's not out of the question that this card will also see some play in the future for other white aggressive decks. Also, it is a replacement for Regal Caracal that is also a far cheaper mana cost, if necessary. Since it is such a small investment, there is a possibility of some return with Glory-Bound Initiate.

Option 2: Mono-Black Aggro

This particular archetype has existed a number of times in the last few years, despite being slightly overshadowed by its Mono-Black Midrange counterpart. Mono-Black Midrange may seem like a budget deck at first, until you realize that Liliana, Death's Majesty and Fatal Push are both $8 and Vraska's Contempt is up to $16!

On the other hand, the more aggressive versions of Mono-Black hold plenty of merit and have some strong tools. Fatal Push is a card to invest in for multiple formats, and likely won't lose value even after it rotates out of Standard. Gifted Aetherborn and Glint-Sleeve Siphoner give the deck a strong backbone, and smaller cards like Night Market Lookout, Dread Wanderer, and Vicious Conquistador make the curve consistent.

In fact, now with the addition of Grasping Scoundrel, the curve is virtually perfect. Walk the Plank provides a strong removal option besides Fatal Push, and Aethersphere Harvester gives a way to punch through at the end of the game.

Every single card other than Fatal Push is below $3 per copy, and most cards are $0.50 or less. The entire deck is the ultimate budget example for players who cannot afford Hazoret the Fervent for their Mono-Red Aggro decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fatal Push

Players might still have difficulty acquiring Fatal Push, but fortunately Standard offers other removal as well, such as Walk the Plank and the criminally-underplayed Trial of Ambition to help deal with a vast assortment of creatures. Also, if players are having a hard time finding one or two copies of the staple cards in the deck, a copy of Bontu the Glorified can be an absolute haymaker that catches opponents unaware, and is under $2.

Lastly, Mono-Black has the option of using Plague Belcher as a curve topper.  The drawback does not feel quite so bad when played on a Dread Wanderer, and a five-power menace creature for three mana helps serve as the final possible haymaker. This is an optional replacement for Aethersphere Harvester that can save $5-$10 if needed.

Option 3: Mono-White Approach

What happens when you have a budget player who wants to play a control deck, but is very limited on finances? Well, honestly, often there is no such thing as a viable budget control deck. Fortunately, the current Standard format delivers an option.

People have been toying with Approach of the Second Sun since it was printed. At first it seemed like a fun gimmick card, but players have proven that games can be won convincingly using Approach as a primary win condition.

The cards that a player has to invest in for this deck to work are Fumigate and Settle the Wreckage, as playing control (especially in a mono-colored deck) requires multiple ways to wrath the board. Beyond those, if a copy or two of The Immortal Sun is possible, it would be helpful, but not completely necessary.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fumigate

White has several ways in Standard to get rid of almost any permanent. The aforementioned Baffling End, Ixalan's Binding, and Thopter Arrest, along with Cast Out, make for formidable removal. Orazca Relic and Authority of the Consuls help mitigate life loss from aggressive decks, and Arch of Orazca allows for reasonable late-game card draw.

The entire deck, as a whole, can easily be done for under $100. If the player keeps the sideboard on the super-budget side of things, and just sticks with Adanto Vanguard and Regal Caracal along with budget common token makers, the entire deck can cruise in at under $80 as a price total.

One more very cheap sideboard option is Tocatli Honor Guard, which serves at this format's Torpor Orb. While the effect isn't insanely strong at the current moment, it has fringe uses and may see some play once Dominaria hits. Additionally, the card is less than a quarter per copy, and having one or two has the potential to be helpful over time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tocatli Honor Guard

Modern Choices

Unlike Standard, Modern has far more card options, dating back an extra few dozen sets. The drawback is that Modern on a budget can be very tricky to pull off.

Option 1: Seismic Swans

I personally have this deck built, and it cost me about $30 at the time it was put together. The main reason? There are 41 basic lands.

This deck packs a bit more punch than the Zombie Infestation and Treasure Hunt combo, because there are more than eight total nonland cards in the deck. But we are sticking with the Treasure Hunt strategy to throw cards at the opponent and kill them with the excess of lands in the library.

This list is a bit easier to go over, since there are very few different cards. Seismic Assault and Swans of Bryn Argoll are the combo, with the former allowing a chain of damage-into-draws until enough lands are in hand to instantly slay the opponent. Playsets of both cost about $20-$25 on the cheap end, and are technically the only required cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Swans of Bryn Argoll

Molten Vortex serves as a budget Seismic Assault and as another way to get the combo online. A copy of Laboratory Maniac is an alternate win condition, if desired (or possible). A copy or two of Pyroclasm or Anger of the Gods helps fend off aggressors.

As for the land base, any untapped land that can provide both blue and red mana is good, so Spirebluff Canal and Shivan Reef are helpful. But playing with only basic lands, mainly Mountains at a 3:1 ratio, does not negatively affect the deck all that much. Fetchlands are also completely unnecessary, helping lower the price. The only tapped land that should be used is Swiftwater Cliffs for the life gain, which is less than a dollar for a playset.

The sideboard can be anything that the player finds fun. I personally play a set of Boomerang to delay my opponent’s lands for a turn and to answer dangerous threats. Vapor Snag is another great budget option.

Hopefully, the entire deck can still be put together for under $50, which is hundreds of dollars cheaper than the majority of decks in the format!

Option 2: Mono-Red Aggro

Okay, so a few points here. Yes, Burn is a consistent deck that has long been considered the “mono-red aggro” deck in Modern. Yes, not every deck is going to be dirt cheap like Seismic Swans. However, considering the average Modern deck right now is in the $500-$1,000 price range, this is a pretty good buffer.

MTGO player INGjoker was able to Top 16 a Modern Challenge with a deck that was essentially Ramunap Red before the Ramunap Ruins ban in Standard. Of course, powerful cards such as Lightning Bolt and Goblin Guide were added, and Goblin Guide is going to be a good investment to make since it fits into several aggressive strategies, such as Burn and Zoo.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Guide

Eidolon of the Great Revel is at a low right now, under $9 and not having fallen very far considering it was just reprinted in Masters 25. Eidolon of the Great Revel will have a hard time being reprinted again, since it was part of a niche enchantment block.

Add Bomat Courier, Rampaging Ferocidon, Goblin Rabblemaster, Searing Blood, and Incinerate for the ability to get past regeneration, and the resulting deck is linear and powerful. Rift Bolt is also a Burn card that should still be played, and Dire Fleet Daredevil gives the deck a whole new angle of attack.

While acquiring Goblin Guide can be expensive, there have been several options for Red aggression over time that can serve as reasonable cheap replacements. Monastery Swiftspear, Mogg Fanatic, and even Zurgo Bellstriker all fit the bill and can help reduce the price of this budget option even further.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zurgo Bellstriker

I will be honest, I was highly tempted to include Kuldotha Red over this deck, which is a deck centered around playing a turn-one Kuldotha Rebirth, but Mox Opal is up to $90 and far beyond any rational player’s budget, especially with perpetual whispers of the card being banned in the future. It is not currently overpowering the format, but with Chrome Mox going the wayside many moons ago, players can’t help but discuss the options.

Playing on a Budget

Magic has luck elements to the game, and no matter how good the cards getting sleeved up, no deck has a 100% win rate. Honestly, no deck should have higher than a 60-70% win rate; otherwise it will likely dominate a format.

Each competitor that is missing "perfect" or "optimal" cards needs to remember that any game can be won at any time. Admittedly, not every one of the decks in this article is a world-beater, but they each have the capability to be utilized for players entering respective formats. I like to think of each of these decks as a stepping stone to something greater.

Are there any budget decks that you would like to hear about? Let me know in the comments!

As always, thanks for reading!

Pete

@smash_pacman on Twitter

Insider: Speculating on Dominaria with Knight Tribal

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Dominaria is coming, and it will inevitably have a big impact on Standard and other formats like Commander. Now is the time to get ahead of demand and acquire cards that are going to rise in price. That is easier said than done, but the spoiled cards provide some clues that can point us in the right direction. Many of the Dominaria cards spoiled so far care about specific types of cards, and it’s these card types that are an obvious place to focus attention and are the most likely to yield gains.

The biggest theme of Dominaria is legendary cards, including cards like Mox Amber and the legendary sorceries that require a legendary creature or planeswalker in play to function. There are also cards that trigger from “Historic” spells, which includes legendaries and artifacts. That makes the legendary cards already in Standard and beyond a great place to look for specs. There’s also an incentive to look at artifacts, which will be a part of decks using historic, and will support Karn, Scion of Urza, which is one of the most powerful cards spoiled so far.

Dominaria also has some tribal themes, including Wizards, which will be required to make the most of the new quasi-reprints of Lightning Bolt and Counterspell, Wizard's Lightning and Wizard's Retort. There’s a ton of power locked into these spells and cards like Adeliz, the Cinder Wind, with more likely to come, so there’s going to be many players focusing on Wizards in multiple formats, whether it be Standard, Modern, or Commander.

Knight is also one of Dominaria’s featured tribes, so I’d pay special attention to any Knight cards already in Standard. More importantly, there will be a rise in demand for past Knight cards, which will now have the critical mass of support to be featured in a Modern or Commander deck. It will be a stretch for Knights to really be competitive in Modern, but there’s sure to be a surge in players building a Commander deck around the tribe.

What’s exciting about the Knight tribe for Commander is that it was previously very fringe as a tribal deck, compared to a much more popular tribe like Wizards, so past Knight cards will see a relatively larger increase in demand because they are starting from nearly nothing. Today I’ll cover the Knights that will show up in any attempts at Modern decks, and the past Knights that could be worth targeting given the coming rise in Commander demand for them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Paladin of Atonement

For Standard, the vast majority of Knights are Vampires, but I’d imagine that Knight decks aren’t going to care about the Vampire type, so that leaves out the Vampire synergy cards, and I doubt the deck will want black cards because it will need to be Mono-White to take advantage of Benalish Marshal That leaves Paladin of Atonement as the Knight that seems like it has the most to gain, because it could be a solid role-player as an efficient creature. It has synergy with Shefet Dunes, which any Mono-White deck will want to play, but is also just good insurance against opposing aggression.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knight Exemplar

Knight Exemplar is a lord creature and one of the biggest incentives for actually exploring a Knight tribal deck, so it probably has the most to gain from the tribe being supported in Dominaria. A competitive Modern Knight deck is a huge stretch, but Knight Exemplar would definitely play a part in it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kinsbaile Cavalier

Another one of the few creatures that names Knight by name is Kinsbaile Cavalier, and it acts as a pseudo-lord that gives Knights double strike.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knight-Captain of Eos

Knight-Captain of Eos produces Knight tokens, which means it works very well with the anthem effects that are going to play a big role in Knight decks. It might be powerful enough to make it into a Modern Knight deck, and will certainly be played in all of the Commander ones.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hero of Bladehold

The Knight that has the most to offer on its own merits and has seen competitive play is Hero of Bladehold, which is a must-have in any Knight Commander deck and is likely to be a part of any Modern Knight decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Student of Warfare

Student of Warfare has a history of being playable in Extended, and even won a Pro Tour, and it’s the only really good one-drop in the tribe, so it’s the first place I’d look when building a Modern Knight deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knight of the White Orchid

Knight of the White Orchid has had multiple printings, but it’s the obvious first two-drop of choice for any Modern Knight deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Alaborn Veteran

The Knight tribe isn’t especially deep, so filling out a Commander Knight deck will require going deep and playing most of the Knights available. Ixalan’s Pirate tribe was even shallower, and as such it greatly increased demand for the few Pirates that were printed in the past, even uninspiring ones. This brought about some spikes in low-supply Pirates from Portal sets, and I could see the same thing happening with Knights. Alaborn Veteran is even halfway useful, so it seems like a good buy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Champion Lancer

Champion Lancer is super on-flavor for Knights and has a great picture, and it has a pretty powerful effect when it finally makes it into play, so it’s another card to watch. It already commands a few dollars despite being essentially unheard of.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lost Order of Jarkeld

Lost Order of Jarkeld has a pretty powerful effect for a Commander deck, so this very old card could see its price increase.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Zhalfirin Commander

No Commander Knight deck will be complete without Zhalfirin Commander, so I could see the foil Timeshifted version from Time Spiral spiking.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Righteous Confluence

The Confluence cycle from Commander 2015 are heavily played in Commander decks and have even made it to Legacy. Righteous Confluence is right at home in a Knight Commander deck, so it’s status as the cheapest Confluence is likely to change.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Balan, Wandering Knight

There are a decent number of multicolor Knights that can be used as Commanders, but there aren’t many options for Mono-White decks, which brings the few that are available to the forefront. The best seems like Balan, Wandering Knight, which highlights that the Knight tribe is likely to include a ton of equipment and related cards. Alternatively, it could use the new Danitha Capashen, Paragon as the commander of an equipment-oriented deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Auriok Steelshaper

Auriok Steelshaper isn’t a Knight itself but acts as an anthem for Knight creatures when it’s equipped, so it’s a perfect fit into an equipment-oriented Knight deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sidar Jabari

Another commander option is Sidar Jabari, which has a solid effect.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knight of the Holy Nimbus

A deceptively powerful Knight is Knight of the Holy Nimbus, which is essentially indestructible unless the opponent sinks two mana into it, which taxes removal and makes it play very well in combat. It was great in limited play but never made the jump to constructed, but it seems like a great creature in a dedicated Knight deck, so I foresee its demand going from nothing to something with the release of Dominaria.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Knight of Meadowgrain

Any tribal Knight deck will have multiple anthem effects that boost its Knights, and that makes a creature like Knight of Meadowgrain more desirable, because they help extract more value from its First Strike and Lifelink abilities.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sigiled Paladin

Another playable Knight is Sigiled Paladin, which replaces the Lifelink of Knight of the Meadowgrain with Exalted, which has extra offensive value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silverblade Paladin

Silverblade Paladin can convert to a ton of extra damage, so it’s a great fit into Knight decks, which are going to be highly aggressive.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fiendslayer Paladin

Fiendslayer Paladin probably isn’t under consideration for Modern maindecks, but its resilience to black and red spells makes it a great sideboard card against Jund decks, and with lifelink may be even more useful in the Burn matchup.

-Adam

Brewing UBx Legends with Mox Amber

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

After seeing the leaked Dominaria spoilers for the first time, one of my first orders of business was to try out Mox Amber in Modern. I brainstormed a couple of possible shells before settling on something radically different from what David ended up choosing: a UBx midrange deck. In this article, we'll take a look at the builds I came up with and my impressions of Mox Amber for Modern. My conclusions also differ from David's, as I expect Mox Amber to find a home in Modern.

Continue reading "Brewing UBx Legends with Mox Amber"

Daily Stock Watch – Dire Fleet Daredevil

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Hello, everyone and welcome to a new edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Modern has been a very busy format lately and I have joined the fun in trying out the best decks that could help me win some tournaments in the coming months. To my surprise, decks that follow a more synergistic approach have been successful in culminating wins for its pilots in recent events as exemplified by the emergence of Aura Hexproof and Gruul Land Loss. Despite these impressive showings from the decks I've mentioned, the 5-Color Humans have continued its consistent run in landing multiple players in the top eight of big events such as Grand Prix Kyoto 2018 and a recently concluded MTGO Modern PTQ. A new creature that has made it debut in these winning lists is our preview card for today.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dire Fleet Daredevil

Dire Fleet Daredevil is a Standard card that just made its presence felt in Modern via the Humans deck that Collins Mullen made popular late last year. As the deck's innovator, Mullen has used three copies of this pirate in his sideboard en route to a top eight finish at SCG Team Open Cincinnati. Latter builds by other players included just a pair of it and it might change again anytime soon once they've figured out the magic number that works best for the deck. One thing I've learned thru years of playing Magic is that the people who built the deck probably know it better than we do, so take a look at the latest rendition of the Humans deck from Collins Mullen.

Humans by Collins Mullen

Creatures

4 Champion of the Parish
1 Kessig Malcontents
4 Kitesail Freebooter
1 Kytheon, Hero of Akros
4 Mantis Rider
3 Meddling Mage
4 Noble Hierarch
3 Phantasmal Image
4 Reflector Mage
4 Thalia's Lieutenant
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
1 Whirler Rogue

Other Spells

4 Aether Vial

Lands

4 Ancient Ziggurat
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Horizon Canopy
1 Plains
2 Seachrome Coast
4 Unclaimed Territory

Sideboard

3 Dire Fleet Daredevil
2 Dismember
1 Gaddock Teeg
2 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Hostage Taker
2 Izzet Staticaster
1 Riders of Gavony
2 Selfless Spirit

This deck is almost packed entirely with creatures and lands outside of Aether Vial, and the pirate's job off the board is to give the deck some flexibility in creature-based matchups by trying to steal some Lightning Bolt or Fatal Push off the opponent's graveyard, and making it your own. It's a very efficient card with a Snapcaster Mage-like feel that falls very much within the concept of the deck, plus the added strength of having first strike makes it harder to deal with in hand-to-hand combat. Along with Dark Confidant and Whirler Rogue, the Humans deck is ever-evolving and should be the best aggro deck, if not the best deck overall, in the format for years to come.

Those Pesky Humans

Above are the different cards that you could see on varying Humans builds that have made top eight finishes over the past few weeks. Dire Fleet Daredevil has the most upside from among them as a possible spec target since there are still a plethora of copies out there in the market due to its Standard availability. It's also worth noting that the other cards on the list are of a higher CMC (outside of Bob) and should see fringe play even if they do become successful from time to time. At $6.31, we could be looking at a possible $10-$15 card in the future if this trend continues. It might be best to starting buying in now.

At the moment, StarCityGames is out of stock of this card at $6.99. You could still grab a few normal copies via Card Kingdom and TCGPlayer for anywhere between $5.79 up to $7.49, and probably even less if you have a way of getting them directly from the vendors that's registered at TCGPlayer. The foils are at $14.99 and above, and I also like the idea of getting them at that price. Although WotC has the penchant for reprinting cards from Standard sets in supplemental products such as the recently released Challenger 2018 Decks, I still like getting this card for $5 or less in bunches. There's a lot of potential for a future superstar in this pesky, red pirate.

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as I preview new cards that should be on the go, or good enough for speculation purposes. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

Insider: Organization and Maximizing Trade Value

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Imagine you are planning to attend a Magic tournament. You want to be properly prepared for that event, right? Of course you do. Chances are that you'd practice with your deck and learn the matchups beforehand so that you'd get the best results on game day. To ensure the best results, a serious trader also needs to engage in proper preparation in advance of sitting down at the trade table.

Organization is important when it comes to trading and finance, and it pays to have a system that works for you. Today I'd like to talk about some of the ways I maximize my trading time before I ever leave my house. It pays to have the right cards arranged in a way that makes sense before you ever reach the venue.

A Mess Will Mess With Your Profits

One mistake people make is to bring disorganized "trade stock" to the table. A giant 100-page binder jam-packed with every card you own may seem like it offers lots of options, but it is more often than not a liability. The problem is it makes life difficult for your trade partner because it is sensory overload.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Defender of the Order

The giant binder with everything under the five suns of Mirrodin simply isn't practical.  I can't even tell you how many times I've dropped a giant binder down and my trade partner flips through it and says, "I don't know, I don't really see anything I'm looking for..."

"How is that even possible!?" I'd think to myself. I have everything!  How can you not find something to trade for? Well, the answer was that my presentation was overwhelming and difficult to navigate. Imagine that you went to a dealer booth and all of the cards were priced in the case but arranged in random order. You'd likely just walk away and deal with a vendor who had arranged their cards in a reasonable way. The same goes for trading.

Keep It Simple and Straightforward

In practice, I've found that multiple smaller (and more organized) binders work better for getting trades. These are the current configuration of binders I use:

  • $50+ cards
  • Modern Staples
  • Standard Staples
  • Pauper Staples

I use Monster binders because they don't take up much space and also give my cards a professional and attractive presentation. The idea behind the strategy is when I sit down to trade with somebody, I can ask: "What kind of stuff are you interested in?" When they respond, I can give them the binder that most suits their interest.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pursuit of Knowledge

Some people will say, "I don't know. All kinds of stuff." In my experience, these people tend to be looking for spec targets, niche cards, or just good value. I've also noticed that even if they say "nothing specific," they will tend to spend the majority of their time in one of the different binders.

Trade Binder Organization Strategies

There's no right or wrong, but I've found certain strategies to be more effective when it comes to presentation.

Try not to put things that are not actually for trade into your trade binder. There are lots of cards that I own and commonly play with, and I leave those at home because I'm not looking to trade them. Lots of people have a binder with all of the cards they own that are not currently in a deck, which is fine for the average grinder, but not good enough for a professional trader. There's nothing more annoying than sitting down to trade and being told every card in the binder is "not for trade." If nothing is for trade, why am I wasting my time?

Good for you that you have some dual lands, but if they are not for trade, why am I bothering to look through this stuff? Also, once you tell somebody that something is "not for trade," it makes it much less likely that they will inquire about other cards. Everything in a binder that you are showing somebody should be a yes and never a no. Lastly, why even bother bringing expensive cards that are not for trade with you to a venue? It only opens up the opportunity they could be lost or stolen.

Also, it goes a long way to have your binders organized in a way that makes sense. I organize my trade binders in the following way:

  1. Non Foils, organized by color.
  2. Foils, organized by color.
  3. Foreign cards, organized by color.

This way people can easily flip to the subsets of cards they are interested in. I've bought a lot of foreign Japanese boxes over the years, and as a result, have lots of foreign cards to trade. I tend to really hit the jackpot with trade partners who collect foreign cards, and I want to ensure those people are able to find everything, all together in one place, to maximize my trades.

A Tailored, Niche Binder

I've had a ton of success by tailoring my trades to the specific events I'm attending. For instance, I mentioned earlier that I've bought lots of foreign cards over the years. Well, the Pauper craze has created a huge market for a new subset of Pauper cards, and I just so happen to have tons of foreign copies lying around that I've never been able to do anything with. I also had a ton of extra foils of Pauper staples from collecting Battle Box cards.

I decided a great way to get value out of those cards would be to simply put them all together and take them with me to Pauper events. Lo and behold, I've made tons of trades for awesome value with cards that literally nobody wanted before the Pauper boom.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Paupers' Cage

The same can be said for any type of tournament. If I were going to a Commander game night and looking to trade, I would certainly prepare a Commander-themed trade binder, or at least have a box of spicy Commander trade stock.

Even if you don't have time to prepare a binder, it can also be wise to just throw potential format commons or uncommons into a long box and stash it in your bag. I've had a lot of luck with asking dealers at events if they are sold out of any random commons or uncommons, and then unloading what they need for a great price.

There's two major takeaways here:

  1. Bring cards to events based on what people are likely to want.
  2. Make sure those cards are organized in such a way that people don't experience sensory overload.

You don't want your trade stock to be a disorganized maze that makes it confusing or difficult for your trade partners to find what they are looking for. The key is that good organization ensures your trade partners will easily find what they are looking for and can also find other similar things they might not even have known they wanted!

Give the people what they want and you'll be on your way to increasing your productivity when it comes to making the most out of your time at the trade table.

Insider: QS Cast #90: Er-Ay-Oh

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz, and Tarkan come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Dominaria Discussion
  • MTG Arena NDA Drops
  • Early impressions of the new format: Brawl

Cards we Discussed

Dominaria Card Discussed

Avatar photo

Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

View More By Chaz V

Posted in Free Insider, QS CastTagged , , , , , Leave a Comment on Insider: QS Cast #90: Er-Ay-Oh

Have you joined the Quiet Speculation Discord?

If you haven't, you're leaving value on the table! Join our community of experts, enthusiasts, entertainers, and educators and enjoy exclusive podcasts, questions asked and answered, trades, sales, and everything else Discord has to offer.

Want to create content with Quiet Speculation?

All you need to succeed is a passion for Magic: The Gathering, and the ability to write coherently. Share your knowledge of MTG and how you leverage it to win games, get value from your cards – or even turn a profit.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for March 28th, 2018

Are you a Quiet Speculation member?

If not, now is a perfect time to join up! Our powerful tools, breaking-news analysis, and exclusive Discord channel will make sure you stay up to date and ahead of the curve.

Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of March 27, 2018. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although Hour of Devastation (HOU), Amonkhet (AKH), Aether Revolt (AER), and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

Standard

Dominaria (DOM) previews are entering their first full week and with the fervor for Masters 25 (A25) drafts dying down, interest in Standard is picking up along with Standard prices. Sets of Ixalan (XLN) are very cheap right now, even after jumping five percent this week. XLN has been temporarily unavailable for redemption for over six weeks and this has a particular result for interested speculators.

First of all, redemption generates a pool of value for the associated digital cards. Being able to translate a digital set into a paper set means the value of these two things is tied together, but only from the direction of digital to paper. Through redemption the price of a paper set supports the price of the equivalent digital set. When the tie provided by redemption is severed, the values can start to drift. By the middle of January, XLN was not available for redemption but Chris Kiritz of Wizards of the Coast stated that redemption sets would be reordered and that they would be expected to be back in stock before the off sale date of May 23. The announcement came this week that they will be back in stock on Wednesday.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chart A Course

We can see the impact of redemption on XLN prices in the data. The sum of TCGplayer mid prices for XLN bottomed at $196 on January 3 and have risen to $234 as of March 27, a rise of nineteen percent. Over that same time frame, a digital set of XLN has gone from 62 tix to 61 tix. What this means is that the redemption value of XLN has been building as the differential between a paper set and a digital set has been widening. Once redemption for XLN reopens, there will be an effort by redeemers to capture that value, and this will put downward pressure on paper prices and upward pressure on digital prices. The two prices will seek equilibrium as digital sets get converted to paper sets.

This is usually a great time in the drafting cycle to be acquiring full sets of the aging draft format. Once drafting of DOM starts in April, the incoming supply of XLN and RIX cards will be greatly reduced and digital prices will start rising as a result. Having the extra benefit of anticipated demand from redeemers is just another reason to be a buyer of sets of XLN.

Modern

The Humans archetype is seeing strong uptake in the Modern metagame and the results are showing up in the market. Both printings of Cavern of Souls are approaching a one-year high. Ancient Ziggurat is back over 2 tix and close to an all-time high, while Noble Hierarch is over 30 tix for the first time in years. This is a great time to be a seller of cards featured in this deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancient Ziggurat

It's when there are players taking up the deck for the first time and buying the components that we see card prices increase like this. Just having a spot in the metagame is no longer enough to push prices higher. According to the MTGGoldfish website and their metagame data, Jund is still the top deck in Modern, but its components have been falling in price as the wave of players adopting this deck crested weeks ago. In the age of Treasure Chests, price spikes are never permanent as the overall supply keeps creeping high. Don't miss out on selling into price strength like this.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Domri Rade

Speaking of MTGGoldfish, noted brewer Saffron Olive ran two copies of Domri Rade in his Budget Magic deck this week. You can check out the deck and article here. Domri Rade looks to be Modern playable these days, but it's still very fringe. If you are holding copies since the unbanning of Bloodbraid Elf, I think it's a great time to take a little off the table and sell.

Standard Boosters

The next four weeks is the last chance for drafting AKH block, which means the selling window on AKH and HOU boosters is closing fast. After DOM is released, AKH block will be replaced in the draft queues by XLN block and the price of AKH and HOU boosters will not be tied to the tix-only draft entry fee but to the expected value of the booster contents. Needless to say, the current price of boosters dwarfs the expected value of the boosters, so prices will decline substantially once we get into May.

In recent weeks, AKH is down a little as players sold their boosters to draft A25, but it should recover to 1.3 tix or higher in the neat term. HOU did not see a similar decline in price and is holding close to its recent price of 3.4 tix. AKH and HOU boosters should be sold over the coming weeks prior to the release of DOM and AKH block leaving the draft queue.

With that in mind, this is a perfect time to remind players and speculators a like that XLN and RIX boosters are about to go on sale. Once DOM hits, players will start to sell their boosters in order to draft the new set. Typically this pushes the price of a draft set down from the 8 tix to 9 tix range into the 6 tix to 7 tix range. Needless to say, that will be an excellent time to be a buyer. It's no quick flip as it takes time for the market to chew through the supply of boosters, but it's a predictable trade that consistently yields ten to twenty five percent in profit. Stick to buying draft sets and don't prioritize one booster over the other, but be sure to wait for prices to dip to 7 tix or less.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. With Grixis Death's Shadow decks taking a back seat to Jund, we've seen an erosion in the price of Kolaghan's Command. After peaking close to 40 tix in February it's dropped below 20 tix this week. That's the kind of substantial price drop which screams "oversold" to me so I waded in and bought a few cheap play sets.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kolaghan's Command

This card is a Modern staple, and it won't take much for it to return into the 25 to 30 tix range, which is my target sell price out of the gate. There are some Grand Prix events featuring Legacy on the way and that should also fuel some extra demand for this card. I won't hold this one indefinitely, but it seemed like it had fallen too far too fast this week.

Want Prices?

Browse thousands of prices with the first and most comprehensive MTG Finance tool around.


Trader Tools lists both buylist and retail prices for every MTG card, going back a decade.

Quiet Speculation