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Insider: Spikes in Third-Tier Old School Cards

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Two months ago I wrote an article here on QS where I argued that what I labeled Tier 2 and Tier 3 Old School cards were, in my opinion, among the best investments in Magic. The activity that brought me to that conclusion was the design and acquisition of an Old School Battle Box.

As I went about trying to acquire the random Beta, Arabian Nights, Legends, and Antiquities cards that I needed to complete my stack, I was able to make a few observations that I thought were useful.

Firstly, there was very little separation between completely unplayable chaff cards and cool, playable, iconic cards. I noticed there was little difference in price between a Beta Conservator and a Beta Dragon Whelp—despite the fact that Dragon Whelp is a card more likely to be played somewhere and the fact that Dragon Whelp is much more iconic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon Whelp

The prices seemed to reflect the fact that in terms of constructed tournament Magic, Conservator and Dragon Whelp are equally unplayable. The primary demand for either card is people who are making sets and so the demand is in effect equal.

However, as an individual who was literally building an Old School Battle Box it was clear to me that I wanted a Dragon Whelp and didn't give a crap about Conservator. Even if I wanted a cool card to stick in my binder or to use as a bookmark or something, Dragon Whelp was still more appealing than Conservator.

It isn't just limited to Dragon Whelp either. I distinguished between cards that I felt were "playable somewhere" and "completely unplayable anywhere." Could this card go into a cube? Could this card go into a Battle Box? Could this card go into a super casual deck? Is it a card that can be played or isn't it?

If a card is playable somewhere it has more inherent value than a card that is unlikely to ever be played because there is simply more demand. People are looking so hard for investing edges when it comes to Magic, and I saw this phenomenon as a clear edge that had been completely untapped.

A Refresher on Tiers

It will be helpful to revisit the system I laid out in my last Old School investing article. There I proposed thinking about Old School cards as falling into three distinct tiers.

  • Tier 1: The card is playable in actual tournament eternal Magic. Duals, Moxes, Swords to Plowshares, etc.
  • Tier 2: The card is playable in Old School Constructed or Commander: Disrupting Scepter, Thunder Spirit, Power Sink, Tawnos's Coffin, etc.
  • Tier 3: The card is playable in a casual format like Cube or Battle Box. Dragon Whelp, Prodigal Sorcerer, Sorceress Queen.

Everything else are just bad cards. They were not useful in 1996 and they didn't get any better with time.

The whole thing is pretty abstract—but it comes together and holds a lot of water. It works. I realize the verbiage of these Tiers are kind of nonsense. I made them up. However, I made them up to describe trends that I thought were both real and useful for thinking about investing in old cards.

Here's why it works:

I noticed there were pretty consistent price points for cards that fell into these tiers depending upon which set they were from. Without knowing the specifics I could accurately predict the price of a card depending upon which tier and set it was from.

The big breakthrough was that the third tier of cards were priced at bulk basically across the board, despite the fact that I could clearly demonstrate a third tier in terms of how useful the card could be. Dragon Whelp is better than Conservator but equal in price.

As Expected…

Over the past two weeks I've noticed that the third tier of Old School cards has been consistently rising to exactly where I predicted it would go—somewhere in the middle between the baseline bulk Old School prices and Tier 2.

My suggestion is to be aggressively picking up Old School Tier 3 cards at bulk prices, which is still relatively easy to do, provided you know where to look.

The online prices have already begun to tick up and the good deals are fewer and more far between. Obviously, TCGplayer tracks these things and allows the online cards to adjust relatively easily.

eBay is a decent place to start because people just throw things up there for whatever price. There is not as much competition on the less desirable third-tier cards right now because it isn't exactly common knowledge.

Perhaps the best place to look is at your LGS. Ask to look at priced Old School cards if your store has them. Most likely, these were priced more than a few months ago which will allow you to score some really nice buys if you know what to look for (and you do, because you are reading this!).

A lot of stores price their cards based on SCG or TCG prices. SCG is always sold out on the cards I'm talking about and has been for months. They never update their prices until they restock, and they never restock. What does that tell you? They haven't gotten any Beta Dragon Whelps—or, they just aren't restocking them for some reason…

Either way, these are cards that they simply don't/can't get into stock ever, or, they are cards they choose not to stock. I can't imagine a scenario where this bodes poorly for my investment strategy.

While the biggest spikes have been in the Tier 3 department, I've also noticed that the Tier 2 cards have been slowly, steadily ticking up as well (which I also predicted).

The reason I think these cards are (and have been) such solid investments is that they are fixed in terms of supply—which is relatively low.

Investing in the Modern Era

Reprints have really put a damper on investing in anything from the Modern era. We all know this. You can't just buy Modern staples and hold them because 1) the format changes, which makes demand fluctuate depending upon the metagame, and 2) your investment can be reprinted and ruined at anytime for any reason.

The fact is that they can never reprint Beta cards. True, not every Old School card is on the Reserved List—just a lot of them. However, the iconic coolness factor of Alpha, Beta, Arabian Nights, and Legends is undeniable. Who would want to play with an Iconic Masters Mana Drain when they have the option to play with a Legends one? Or Karakas?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Drain

The answer is, "people who want to spend less money on cards." Yet, there is still a premium demand on the 1995 copies of these cards because they are older and more scarce. They also look way cooler which can never be underestimated in the eyes of collectors.

As far as finance is concerned, I think the movement of these obscure Old School cards over the past few weeks is likely the most significant trend happening. Hit up those local game stores and try to find these before it's too late. Not all bulk is created equal—the reason being, not all of it is bulk.

Insider: QS Cast: QS Flash Cast #1

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Play

The QS Cast returns! Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Insider @Efren joins us for this Flash Cast!
  • Flash Casts are shorter casts recorded along with QS Insiders as guests.
  • Discussed all the recent releases - are there too many products?
  • How Insiders traverse a busy time and still find value.

Enjoy!

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG @the_tark

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Daily Stock Watch – Jace, Cunning Castaway

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Hello, everyone and welcome to a new week of the Daily Stock Watch! I hope you enjoyed our special Iconic Masters review last week, where we talked about possible good acquisitions and things that we should start selling soon. Today, I'm going to talk about a card that is slowly hitting rock bottom.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Cunning Castaway

I wasn't impressed at all by this card when I first saw it. People were easily attracted to the hype because, well, this is a Jace planeswalker after all. It was pre-selling at $19.95 and I really feel bad for those who bought them. The early buy-ins (or price manipulation) helped raise it to $24.94 but since then, things have gone way south for this card.

Online stores have stocks of Jace, Cunning Castaway for as low as $4.95, which is its all-time low since it was printed. In case you're wondering why a Jace is valued this low, I checked how many decks actually use this card with the help of my Utility Checker, and I found out that only a half percent of top performing decks since Ixalan became Standard legal have actually used JCC. To make sure I'm not missing out on anything, I checked Modern and Legacy and just as I guessed, not a single trace of it could be found there as well.

I'm not raising my hopes for JCC, but this deck actually won a tournament using four copies of it:

UW Tempo

Creatures

4 Toolcraft Exemplar
2 Nimble Obstructionist
4 Glory-Bound Initiate
4 Scrapheap Scrounger

Instants and Sorceries

3 Spell Pierce
1 Disallow
3 Settle the Wreckage
2 Chart a Course

Other Spells

2 Cast Out
4 Heart of Kiran
4 Gideon of the Trials
4 Jace, Cunning Castaway

Lands

5 Plains
1 Fetid Pools
2 Concealed Courtyard
3 Drowned Catacomb
4 Glacial Fortress
4 Irrigated Farmland
4 Island

Sideboard

1 Solemnity
2 Authority of the Consuls
2 Legion's Landing
2 Fumigate
1 Demystify
2 Negate
1 Aethersphere Harvester
1 Angel of Sanctions
1 Sunscourge Champion
2 Tocatli Honor Guard

The deck looks decent and competitive at first glance if you're not aware of the Standard metagame. A platoon of energy decks are on the loose in the format along with some Ramunap Red variants, so let me be the first one to tell you that this isn't that format-breaking deck you're looking for. However, this build should give some decks in your LGS or FNM a run for their money, so maybe you could actually try it out. This is the only deck in Standard right now where four copies of JCC would make sense.

On a financial aspect, I think that $4 is the lowest that JCC would go. With no signs of any breakthrough in Modern, it might sustain that price tag until more cards from Rivals of Ixalan are spoiled. Ixalan is starting to look like a very bad set with only Vraska, Relic Seeker as the saving grace for those who are still cracking packs. Sooner or later, one or two more cards are bound to trend upwards when new toys from RIX arrive and allow us to brew new archetypes. I'm not really a fan of where Standard is headed until energy is out of the format, but I feel strongly that JCC is one of the cards that might actually see some positive spike some day.

Since I don't cover a lot of Standard cards here at the Daily Stock Watch, here are some things that you might want to consider buying from Ixalan while they are cheap:

Ixalan Prospects

I'm not gonna go into details as to why I like those cards, but I look at them with the same regard as JCC. Of course, these picks are rather arbitrary, so proceed with caution when buying them. If you could pick up foil copies of Field of Ruin, get lots of it. It will be a hit soon.

Right now, you could get JCC copies from TCGPlayer for as low as $4.95. Channel Fireball and Star City Games are still selling them for $6, while foils are available in the $16-$25 range. I'd probably start buying two to three sets once it hits $4, but I'd stay away from the foils for now. I don't mind paying that price for a lousy Jace.

And that’s it for today's edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again tomorrow, as we take a look at a new card that we could keep our eyes on. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

 

Insider: Important Treasure Chest Update for Standard Investors

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This past week, Lee Sharpe unveiled new updates to treasure chests for MTGO. These changes are more important than most treasure chest updates because they offer hints about how Wizards plans to make treasure chests more sustainable and stable going forward. As has been plainly manifest for some time now, treasure chests have been declining in value, and in September, they even dipped below the price point at which playing in Constructed Leagues was profitable. Ensuring that Constructed events are profitable for players generates demand for the cards on MTGO, so they don't like it when treasure chests' value dips below 2.15 tix, and they grow alarmed if treasure chests' value threatens to dip below 2.00 tix. What is their solution? I'm here to break it down for you!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Treasure Cove

I. An Increasing Share of Treasure Chest Value is Being placed in Standard Cards

Treasure chests now contain complete sets of every set legal in Standard. Every set from Kaladesh to Ixalan now has its own curated card slot. Every non-foil complete set has a curated card frequency of three, and every foil complete set has a curated card frequency of one. A year ago, you could open a treasure chest and "win the lottery" by opening a Rishadan Port or Wasteland. These lottery cards once helped to buttress the value of treasure chests, but now that their prices have plummeted as their supplies have increased, so they no longer have the same effect on treasure chest value. Complete sets of Standard are the new lottery cards intended to keep the value of treasure chests from falling close to 2.00 tix.

Treasure chests now contain cards from the most recently printed set. Every treasure chest update brings with it a greater focus on Standard cards. Early this summer, Wizards began introducing older, non-redeemable Standard cards into treasure chests. Then, with the Ixalan update, Amonkhet block cards still eligible for redemption were introduced to the treasure chests. With the November 15th update, treasure chests will for the first time contain cards from the current draft format, Ixalan.

I believe that these changes will have the beneficial and intended consequences of halting the decline in treasure chest value. Demand for Standard staples is higher than demand for Eternal staples, and so infusing the market with Standard staples instead of Eternal staples should not affect those cards' prices as much as what we've seen from Eternal staples. To be sure, this will limit the potential growth of your Standard investments, because there will be a steady stream of supply of those cards entering the marketplace long after the set has ceased being drafted. On the other hand, we could see this as merely replacing the increased supply that used to come from sets being drafted for far longer than they are now. I do not think that you should worry about investing into Standard, and I still think that investing in Standard should constitute the largest part of your investment portfolios.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Treasure Cruise

II. A Closer Look at Standard Cards inside Treasure Chests

Below are tables (click the link to expand) showing all the Standard-legal cards that are on the curated list, sorted by set and then by price. I think it's important to have a sense for how Wizards is managing the release of Standard staples into the market through treasure chests.

I think what stands out from this data is how standardized it is. We are getting a clear model from Hour of Devastation and Ixalan for how we can expect the curated frequencies to work moving forward – 12 for cards over $5.00 and 6 for the others. There are some oddities in the frequencies of the prior Standard sets (Glorybringer and Approach of the Second Sun with frequencies of 12), but I think the reason for the higher frequencies of Kaladesh block cards is that Wizards is trying to play catch up with them, to get their supplies up to where they would have been had they been in treasure chests for the entire duration of their Standard life.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Trash for Treasure

Why are some expensive cards not on the list and some cheap cards on the list?

These cards are just some of the cards that are not on the curated list yet are more expensive than many of the cards that are on the list. What gives? Different explanations work for different cards, but it is hard to come up with a rule that works in all these cases. It seems clear that there is a real human element in choosing which cards are put on the list, as various potential economic rules aren't being applied universally.

I wonder, then, whether this human element makes it exploitable, whether we are able to glean certain things about future Standard seasons that we wouldn't otherwise be privy to. The inclusion of Approach from the Second Sun and Regal Caracal and the exclusion of Rhonas the Indomitable, for example, make me wonder whether the curated inclusions and their frequencies are taking into account data gained from the Future Future League (FFL), among other sources. Only time will tell.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Treasure Trove

Should we make investment decisions based upon which Ixalan cards were added to, or kept off, the list?

This is a very interesting question, and one that I anticipate has come to the mind of many readers. I know it certainly has come to my mind.

These three cards in particular were not added to the list despite cheaper cards like Legion's Landing and Treasure Map being added to the list. It is possible that Lee Sharpe had already determined which cards would be on the list prior to Ixalan's release (which would be a vote of confidence in favor of all those cards). It is also possible that the pool of Ixalan cards and their curated frequencies were determined more recently and with an awareness of what Standard might look like after the release of Rivals of Ixalan (which, again, would be a vote of confidence in favor of all these cards).

We definitely need more sets under our belt before determining how much predicative power the curated list has for the future success of new Standard cards, but it is something that we should revisit in six months. If Jace, Cunning Castaway does well while Huatli, Warrior Poet languishes, or if Treasure Map sees a lot of play while Settle the Wreckage sits on the sidelines, using this list to inform our investment decisions might become a really useful weapon in our speculative arsenal.

On the flip side, some might feel squeamish about investing in cards put onto the curated list. Settle the Wreckage and Rampaging Ferocidon not being on the list might be seen as a reason to invest in them. My advice is to not allow exclusion from the curated list to impact your investment decisions too much at this time. As I noted earlier in this article, I think that Standard demand is so high that a card's inclusion in treasure chests should not dramatically affect its speculative potential. I wouldn't actively avoid the cards being put in treasure chests, and in fact I'm quite interested in exploring the potential for the curated list to predict future success. With that said, I'm not going to hesitate to invest in cards like Settle the Wreckage if the price is right – I think we need to still trust our intuitive judgments regarding the potential of cards to rise in price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Treasure Hunt

III. Signing Off

A copy of my investment portfolio can be found here. I've done a little more selling of late than I would have liked, but I needed to free up capital to launch my first foray into Legacy, which has been a blast. It's been a goal of mine to be able to play an Eternal format, and I'm happy that the investments I've made have enabled me to do it.

Also, fellow QS Writer Matt Lewis proved to be correct, and I wrong, about the trajectory of Ixalan's set value. After having stabilized and shown slight continual growth for weeks, the set's value seemed to have already bottomed out, but ever since the Pro Tour the overall value of the set has declined markedly. Much of that has to do with Vraska, Relic Seeker's crashing fall, but prices across the board have decreased. It seems that uncertainty and respect for the Pro Tour was holding up prices, even after Ixalan's abysmal showing at Worlds.

I'm happy to have written the articles on Ixalan finance already, as that will arm you with some knowledge and perspective heading into December, which will be an optimal month to invest in Ixalan.  I definitely wish I had held off on some of my investments, but lesson learned! I'm still happy with my overall position, and will use December to increase my holdings of cards like Glacial Fortress, Captain Lannery Storm and Chart a Course.

Wishing each of you a Happy Thanksgiving!

Insider: Looking Domestically for Arbitrage

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Many vocal MTG speculators have stated their disgust when international arbitrage was revealed. They felt like their opportunities were being stripped away from them because many more people were suddenly aware of this approach—especially when dealing with Japanese vendors. I was one of the writers who broke this story.

Did you know, however, that there’s another form of arbitrage out there? One that doesn’t involve any international vendors, one that can be done independently without others’ assistance, and one that offers minimal risk. Do I have your attention? Good, read on to learn more.

Delving Into the Obscure

It is extremely rare to find a domestic arbitrage opportunity on any well known cards. If you think you’ll be able to pick up some Standard or Modern staples from one vendor to ship to another’s buylist for profit, you will be severely disappointed. The same goes for big ticket items such as Power, dual lands, and highly desirable Old School cards.

But if you are willing to browse through the nooks and crannies of Magic—the cards that many players don’t even know have value—then you can start to uncover some surprises. Granted, this approach isn’t guaranteed and it does require a good deal of time and effort. You can’t expect to turn over a rock and find a gem every single time. But if you find yourself bored with MTG finance during the winter holidays, when selling volume is known to dip, then this could be another avenue to supplement your income and make this hobby a little bit cheaper.

After all, it’s not everyday you find someone mention speculation on Presence of the Master from Legends. Luckily, I have done a great deal of research in this space already and have some ideas to share.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Presence of the Master

Just remember, I can’t really share specific and actionable ideas here. If I did, the opportunity would be spent by the first person to read the article. I have no interest in turning this column into an exercise of dexterity. So I’ll share some general categories along with historical examples to give you the tools and the knowledge to lead your own searches for profitable opportunities.

Unplayable Alpha and Beta Rares

If you’ve been following my writing lately, then you know I have been a loud supporter of upping investments in Alpha and Beta cards. Old School playables from these two sets have gotten very expensive, and this includes even the simplest of commons. Add onto this that the quantity of Alpha cards on TCGplayer is at an all-time low, and you have a recipe for long-term and risk-free profits.

But there’s another way to profit on Magic’s earliest two sets: by digging for arbitrage with unplayable rares. You see, no one in their mind actively seeks out stuff like Deathlace and Farmstead for play. Yet there are enough collectors out there to sustain demand for these unpalyable cards. And where there’s demand, there are vendor buy prices.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathlace

But since supply can sometimes become localized to a single vendor, you come across situations where one vendor has a handful of copies of a card in stock while others offer high buy prices due to their “out of stock” status. Vendors who use complex algorithms, and who want to keep every card in stock, will sometimes pay even higher just to get something in stock.

For example, a few months ago I browsed through Cool Stuff Inc’s entire stock of Beta cards. Turns out, they tend to have pretty competitive prices on played stuff. Since they have scans available for most noteworthy cards, it’s really easy to browse their site for arbitrage opportunities. Add on the fact that Cool Stuff Inc typically has low prices on Old School stuff to start with, and you increase your chances of making money even further.

So when I looked this particular time, I found a few deals. They had played Beta Gaea's Lieges for right around ABU Games’s buylist price. They also had a couple of Beta Timber Wolves, again near buylist. And while there was no immediate arbitrage with everything, they also had some cards listed for below eBay completed listings.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Liege

Getting that loyalty discount makes the prices even more compelling, and I have returned to this well on multiple occasions. Even if there’s no immediate cash profit to be had, I like to use this site to pick up stuff that I can buylist to ABU Games for that 50% trade-in bonus. This way if there’s a buyout and ABU Games still has copies, I can use the Cool Stuff Inc cards I have in reserve to help make the purchase, sparing my cash.

And with sites like Card Kingdom moving their buy prices on cards on an almost daily basis, there’s plenty of reason to check back in to see if any new opportunities have arisen. I find that Cool Stuff Inc adds to stock sufficiently often as well, giving me reason to visit that site regularly.

Let’s Get Even Stranger

Probably not everyone knew how expensive Beta Gaea's Liege is, but everyone at least knows that Beta exists. However there are some cards out there with good buylists from sets that most players won’t ever have heard of!

For example, you could browse the most obscure Portal cards for arbitrage opportunities. I have done this with some success before because Commander has caused some pretty strange cards from these sets to spike. We all know about the super-rare Portal: Three Kingdoms cards like Imperial Seal and Capture of Jingzhou, but how well-versed is everyone with Portal: Second Age cards?

Did you know about Norwood Priestess, which boasts a pretty strong buy price?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Norwood Priestess

Or how about Razorclaw Bear, a random rare with a $5 buy price at Card Kingdom? How about the other handful of cards that buylist for over two bucks such as Steam Catapult, Predatory Nightstalker, and Righteous Fury? How many people know about all these? More importantly, how many vendors even know about these? Even major shops can overlook their prices on these cards simply because they do so little volume of sales on them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Righteous Fury

Consider this: someone goes to a Grand Prix and sits down with a stack of cards they haven’t looked at in years. They don’t know what’s in there—they just want cash for their cards. They get to a Predatory Nightstalker and chuck it in the $1 pile. That’s what Star City Games pays on the card. They probably list the card for $3 or $4 on their site expecting the card to sit there for months before a buyer comes along.

This slow volume is your opportunity, because Card Kingdom pays very strongly on Predatory Nightstalker. So when you have some spare store credit to burn at Star City Games you can pick up however many of these they have and immediately ship them to another store for profit. Granted, for a $4 card this isn’t really going to make you a fortune. But the more you know, the more opportunities like these you can find. And they do add up!

Oversized Cards

There’s one group of cards that is even more obscure than Portal: Second Age. More random and unknown than Anthologies, Beatdown, and Battle Royale (all of which are excellent sources of arbitrage). There are the oversized cards! And there sure are a ton!

First, you have the Planechase planes. These used to be pretty stellar sources of arbitrage and Star City Games had very good buy prices on the most popular cards. But then Planechase Anthology came along and ruined this opportunity fairly extensively. I only mention it because I have used these cards to make money on in the past.

Next, you have the Archenemy Schemes: both the 2010 versions and the Nicol Bolas versions. These are far more interesting and offer a larger variety of buy prices. How often do you think vendors get these in and alter their prices? Probably not very. This becomes your opportunity. Next time you have some store credit lying around, check to see if the shop has any of these for under buylist. The same goes for when you’re shopping at an LGS or on TCGplayer.

Then you have the oversized promos—these are a treasure chest of arbitrage opportunities because different vendors care about these in varying amounts. The Avacyn Restored foil promos are very well known, but how many stores know the market price of Tazeem, the 2009 Planechase Launch promo? Or how about the oversized Hero of Bladehold? And I have personally made money flipping the oversized Serra Angel card with Rebecca Guay art. These all have a chance of being underpriced at one site or overpriced at another.

Lastly, let’s not forget the original oversized cards: Vanguard. You don’t have to know how to play with these to know that they can make you money. The more valuable ones are more well known, but again those cards in the $4 range are sometimes much cheaper at one site than another. Selenia, Urza, and Xantcha, for example, are not as well-known as the Sliver Queen Vanguard card but still have meaningful value.

Wrapping It Up

Arbitrage with international vendors has become much tougher in recent months. That’s okay; it isn’t the only arbitrage game in town. If you know where to look and are willing to do the leg work, there are plenty of domestic opportunities. Fortunately, thanks to Magic’s extensive 25-year history, there are plenty of unturned stones worth looking under.

This week I shared some areas I have browsed extensively in the past to some success. With enough research, you’ll quickly identify which vendors are favorable for which obscurities. I already identified Cool Stuff Inc as the place to shop for Alpha and Beta unplayable rares. I’m sure there are other stores with low prices on Beatdown cards, while other shops may price their Vanguard cards well below market norm. These are the tidbits that can be leveraged for modest gains.

Is it the most rewarding and glamorous way to make money in Magic? Absolutely not. I suspect many of these opportunities exist because nobody has bothered to invest the time needed to take full advantage of every bit of arbitrage out there. But during a quiet time of the year in MTG finance, this could be one avenue worth pursuing on a day off from work/school.

While it won’t make you the flashy 100%+ gains we see during a period of rampant buyouts, you still may be surprised at how much you can grind with this method. You may even learn something new.

…

Sigbits

  • I was trying to sell my Ali from Cairo the other day, but I didn’t have much luck. That may not be a bad thing, though, as I see that Star City Games is paying $150 on Near Mint copies! I had assumed Card Kingdom’s buy price of $135 was best in class, but now that I see SCG is sold out of the card with a $250 price tag, I’m inclined to keep my copy for a little longer to see if this bumps even higher.
  • Starter 1999 is another one of those obscure sets with hidden arbitrage opportunities. While everyone knows about Grim Tutor, some of the cheaper cards can have some pretty surprising buy prices. Card Kingdom pays quite aggressively on Devastation ($17), Piracy ($5.50), and Thunder Dragon ($3.30).
  • Pop quiz: what’s the most expensive printing of Archangel? If you guessed Portal: Second Age, you would be wrong. The correct answer is actually the Gotta Magazine promo from Asia, which isn’t even tournament-legal. Yet Star City Games is sold out at $39.99! Think there’s some arbitrage opportunity with that one? Maybe!

Daily Stock Watch – Grove of the Burnwillows

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Hello, everybody and welcome to the this week's last edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Today will be the last day of our Iconic Masters special and I'm going to feature my craziest pick from the set. I'm a betting man, and I'll bet all my marbles on this one.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grove of the Burnwillows

"Wait.. Are you serious? Punishing Fire's not even..."

Yes, I am completely aware that Grove of the Burnwillows' graveyard-loving buddy isn't legal in Modern, and that Punishing-Zoo isn't even a tier 1 deck in Legacy. But there are a lot of things to consider on why I'd love to hoard copies of Grove of the Burnwillows (as soon as the price becomes favorable for doing so, of course).

First, check out these cards:

Cards that might return to Modern next year

This isn't an article about what I think will be unbanned next year after Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan, but is more of why I'd like to go all in on Grove. Above are the eight cards (in my opinion) with the highest probability of being released from the banned list if WotC stays true to their word. I analyzed each and everyone of them and I trimmed down my choices to three: Punishing Fire, Bloodbraid Elf, and Jace, the Mindsculptor.

Despite of Todd Stevens' claims that control is a tier 1 deck in Modern, I'd beg to disagree. I think that Jeskai and Lantern Control are the only legit decks in the format, so giving blue mages the gift of JtMS should only be fitting enough to make control an actual threat again; Jund hasn't been the same since Deathrite Shaman and BBE left Modern, so getting one of them back (BBE in this case) should make Jund relevant again; and in a world filled with Merfolks backed by lords, giant Eldrazi creatures running around, and decks being built around Death's Shadow, some Punishing Fire and Grove decks shouldn't hurt.

Second, take a look at these decks:

5C Living End

Creatures

4 Street Wraith
4 Deadshot Minotaur
4 Desert Cerodon
4 Fulminator Mage
4 Horror of the Broken Lands
4 Monstrous Carabid
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Instants and Sorceries

3 Beast Within
4 Violent Outburst
4 Demonic Dread
3 Living End

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
1 Mountain
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
1 Verdant Catacombs
2 Blooming Marsh
2 Grove of the Burnwillows
4 Bloodstained Mire

Sideboard

2 Lost Legacy
3 Ricochet Trap
3 Dead // Gone
3 Ingot Chewer
4 Faerie Macabre

Green Red Tron

Creatures

2 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
1 Walking Ballista
1 World Breaker
3 Wurmcoil Engine

Instants and Sorceries

1 All Is Dust
4 Ancient Stirrings
3 Pyroclasm
4 Sylvan Scrying

Other Spells

4 Chromatic Sphere
4 Chromatic Star
4 Expedition Map
4 Karn Liberated
2 Oblivion Stone
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Lands

1 Forest
1 Ghost Quarter
4 Grove of the Burnwillows
1 Sanctum of Ugin
1 Sea Gate Wreckage
4 Urza's Mine
4 Urza's Power Plant
4 Urza's Tower

Sideboard

1 Appetite for the Unnatural
1 Grafdigger's Cage
2 Kozilek's Return
3 Nature's Claim
2 Sudden Shock
2 Thragtusk
3 Warping Wail
1 Witchbane Orb

These are competitive Modern decks that utilize Grove of the Burnwillows and doesn't consider its "gain life" mechanic as a drawback. In the scenario that Punishing Fire isn't unbanned in Modern, your copies will still find its way to new owners who will be making these decks (and who knows what other cards might come along from Rivals of Ixalan that might make Grove insane again). Based on my Utility Checker, 6.2% of top performing Legacy decks use an average of 3.5 copies of Grove, while 1.7% of top Modern decks use 3.2 copies of it. There's a very high upside for this card going forward.

At the moment, you could find Future Sight copies of Grove from stores like Star City Games, TCGPlayer, Card Kingdom, and Channel Fireball from anywhere between $22-$39, while the foil FS copies are in the $110-$180 range. If you have normal copies of these, just keep it, although I'm not so sure about the ceiling of the foil ones. It should easily be a $75 card once Punishing Fire gets unbanned from Modern. I suggest that you do the same for your From the Vault: Realms copies.

The IMA version of this card is pre-selling for as low as $14.95, and as high as $19.99 from the same stores I mentioned. I'm not sure how low this could still get but I'd definitely start buying as soon as it hits $10-$12, which I think will be the rock bottom price before it rebounds. I don't actually mind buying just the IMA version as it has the most potential for maximum profit, but you could always do the same for the other versions. I'd love to keep at least three sets of these and wait how it turns out next year.

And that’s it for this week's special edition of the Daily Stock Watch! See you again next week, as we return to our normal segment. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

 

A Fatal Push Retrospect and the Future of Fair

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Modern's detractors have long cast the format as a writhing mess of linear decks, all ignoring each other or skillfully opening sideboard hosers all the way to each hyper-aggressive Top 8. But until recently, Modern's pound-for-pound fairest deck---Jund---has commanded more metagame shares than almost anything else. That deck's resignation as king gave way to a variety of decks, including sleeker versions of BGx. And now, it's primed for a comeback. At the center of each shift lies Fatal Push.

In dethroning Tarmogoyf as the play-or-die fair-deck poster-child, Fatal Push has opened up plenty of design space for Modern's fair decks. This week, we'll take a closer look at Push's effects on the format and the fair decks the card enables.

The Push Trajectory

Plenty has been written on Fatal Push at this point; Nexus itself has covered Push's applications in control decks, its impacts on creature playability, its overall strength in Modern, its relation to other removal spells, and, of course, the cooling effect it's had on Tarmogoyf. Here, we'll take a look at Modern almost a year after Push was spoiled, zoning in on the card's history and the format shifts that have taken place around it.

February: Shadow Becomes Interactive

The one-two punch of Gitaxian Probe's banning and Fatal Push's sanctioning lead to the rainbow-colored, aggro-combo Shadow decks' metamorphosis into Death's Shadow Jund, which took Modern by storm at GP Vancouver.

With Golgari Grave-Troll getting the axe alongside Probe, players skimped on graveyard hate in February, setting the stage for a delirium-based strategy to emerge. Josh Utter-Leyton and friends realized the true strength of Traverse the Ulvenwald was not to leverage access to a mid-game creature toolbox, but to functionally run additional copies of the best creatures available to a given strategy.

After a ban, players tend to ease off their ravaged broken deck and settle back into traditional format gatekeepers. Neither were those decks equipped to deal with Fatal Push nor their pilots ready for the card's impact. Death's Shadow Jund therefore preyed on Modern's go-to decks by immediately exploiting Push's power, leaving the likes of Jund and Affinity in the dust.

May: Shadow Goes Blue

Ryan Overturf's Grixis Delver list from March marks Shadow's first foray into Grixis colors, but far from its last. Grixis Shadow would soon drop the Delvers to usurp Death's Shadow Jund as the go-to Shadow variant.

Post-Vancouver, Fatal Push surged in popularity to combat Death's Shadow Jund---after all, the card represents Modern's cleanest answer to both Death's Shadow and Tarmogoyf, the pair of which make up 100% of the deck's threats. One obvious solution for Shadow players looking to beat Push was to drop Tarmogoyf, by far their threat softest to the removal spell, for delve threats, which resist Push altogether.

Enter Grixis Shadow, which replaces Tarmogoyf and Mishra's Bauble with delve threats and Thought Scour. It also moves from the grave-reliant precision of Traverse the Ulvenwald to the hand-fixing comforts of Serum Visions. Poor, flexible Abrupt Decay is an unfortunate casualty of this switch, to be sure. But in its place, Grixis gains Stubborn Denial, a valuable answer for pesky topdecks.

A breakout GP weekend highlighted by a Copenhagen win put Grixis Shadow high on everyone's radar, and locked it in as Modern's premier interactive deck for most of 2017. Without so many Abrupt Decays to worry about, Eldrazi Tron was also able to gain traction in the metagame, riding Chalice of the Void to victory against the Shadow decks. Gx Tron has always lined up well against midrange, but Shadow's high reversibility and access to Stubborn Denial complicated the plan of ramping into colorless planeswalkers; Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher plugged this hole gracefully while fortifying Tron's aggressive matchups.

October: Fish Returns

Push only kills Death's Shadow and (blech) Snapcaster Mage out of the Grixis variant, and does little against Eldrazi. Likewise with Lightning Bolt. So increased the stock of catch-all removal like Path to Exile and Terminate going into the middle of the year.

As the metagame became polarized around Grixis Shadow and Eldrazi Tron, players began looking for ways to exploit Modern's solved state. Mana denial proves problematic for both Shadow and Eldrazi when backed by a clock, and Thalia, Guardian of Thraben heavily taxes the former while shutting down Storm, the Eldrazi-killer that began cutting into Matter Reshaper's shares early this summer. Brian Coval was onto something when he took SCG's Season One Invitational with Death and Taxes.

Some months later, Collins Mullen debuted the ultimate fish deck: Humans. His melds the tribe's best into a five-color machine that proacts like Merfolk and disrupts like Hatebears. With Shadow and Eldrazi pointing players towards Path and Terminate, Bolt-able, Push-able, high-priority creatures like Kitesail Freebooter and Noble Hierarch become a real pain to deal with. Humans capitalizes on these strained removal suites.

The Push Effect

The rise of Humans, a deck full of creatures that would never have seen the light of play in the Bolt-centric Modern of 2016, speaks to the true effect of Fatal Push: the removal spell has dramatically increased diversity among playable Modern creatures and archetypes. To get an idea of Push's impact, let's compare the Top 50 most-played Modern creatures from What's in a Goyf? to those from two weeks ago.

All but one of the eighteen CMC 1-2 creatures that did not transition to the current list (the "one" being a lone Lord of Atlantis, the 50th most-played creature at the time) can be traced to Bushwhacker Zoo, Infect, and Abzan Company. In place of the creatures lost, the ten newcomers represent fourteen different decks:

  • Death's Shadow: Shadow (Jund, 5-Color, Zoo, Grixis)
  • Vizier of Remedies; Devoted Druid: Counters Company, Elves
  • Young Pyromancer: Grixis Delver, Mardu Pyromancer
  • Goblin Electromancer; Baral, Chief of Compliance: Storm
  • Bloodghast: Dredge, Hollow One
  • Champion of the Parish, Thalia's Lieutenant: Humans, Humans Company
  • Walking Ballista: Eldrazi Tron, Counters Company

These creatures helm a healthy variety of different strategies, especially compared to the paltry three decks represented by the creatures we lost. Additionally, they tend to have significantly more overlap than the creatures from a year ago when it comes to the decks they inhabit, indicating a more open metagame.

One possible conclusion from this data: a few dominant aggro strategies (BGx, Infect, Zoo, Abzan Company) kept diversity low pre-Push. Push's printing and the subsequent metagame shifts have resulted in a net diversity gain for Modern, essentially pulling shares away from Tarmogoyf (long the format's most-played creature) and the decks fast enough to get under it, and redistributing them among a host of different strategic archetypes that now have room to breathe.

Fairest of Them All

A fair aggro deck like Humans doing well bodes even better for fair decks in Modern. When the number of playable creatures increases, so does the value of a husky removal suite, and only fair decks can lay claim to those---everyone else is too focused on their own gameplan. So what do the future's fair decks look like?

Jeskai Control, by Jonathan Rosum (4th, SCG Syracuse)

Creatures

4 Spell Queller
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Thundermaw Hellkite
2 Geist of Saint Traft

Instants

4 Cryptic Command
3 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt
3 Lightning Helix
3 Logic Knot
4 Path to Exile

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Plains
4 Celestial Colonnade
4 Flooded Strand
2 Hallowed Fountain
1 Sacred Foundry
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Spirebluff Canal
2 Steam Vents

Sideboard

2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Rest in Peace
2 Runed Halo
2 Stony Silence
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Dispel
1 Wear // Tear
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Supreme Verdict

This Jeskai list is the latest in a series of impressive finishes for the shard, a winning streak that even has Eldrazi Tron godfather Todd Stevens singing Weissman's praises. The key card in these tempo-focused builds is Spell Queller. Queller clocks in the air and boasts a ridiculous ability in matchups without efficient removal for it. Between Queller and the age-old incidental win condition of Bolt-Snap-Bolt, Jeskai has plenty of tools to close out games with these days, a crucial front it's come a long way on since the Shaun McLaren "glory" days of Colonnade-or-bust.

Jeskai has Bolt/Helix for small creatures and Path/permission for large ones, with Snapcaster Mage to double up on its best cards in a given matchup. Burn spells are also great in bulk vs. Shadow decks, and Jeskai features the ability to run powerful hosers in the sideboard.

I can see versions of this deck sans Spell Queller succeeding should the format become radically fair (probably leaning into planeswalkers, Geist of Saint Traft, or Sphinx's Revelation). But there's always checks like Tron to keep that scenario from happening, which in turn demand the types of linear answer decks that hate facing Spell Queller. Either way, I'd count on Quellerless variants emerging and occasionally topping, but the card's got a forever home here regardless.

Mardu Pyromancer, by SELFEISEK (5-0, Competitive League)

Creatures

4 Bedlam Reveler
2 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Young Pyromancer

Enchantments

1 Blood Moon

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
2 Lightning Helix
1 Burst Lightning
2 Terminate
3 Kolaghan's Command

Sorceries

4 Faithless Looting
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
1 Dreadbore
2 Forked Bolt
4 Lingering Souls

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Marsh Flats
2 Sacred Foundry
3 Wooded Foothills
3 Mountain
1 Swamp

Sideboard

2 Blood Moon
2 Dragon's Claw
2 Fatal Push
4 Leyline of the Void
2 Pithing Needle
1 Shattering Spree
2 Wear // Tear

SELFEISEK has apparently been ravaging the online scene with this Mardu Pyromancer deck. Mardu Pyromancer out-grinds just about everything and practically never loses to creature decks. I featured a version of Mardu Pyromancer that splashes blue for Delver of Secrets and Chart a Course a few weeks ago, but have come around on the idea that SELFEISEK's original creation already has the tools it needs to become a major player in Modern. The extra card draw is superfluous here, and Delver's role is better filled by Blood Moon against many decks.

Graveyard hate cuts out this deck's card advantage engines, but lines up poorly against aggressive threats Monastery Swiftspear and Young Pyromancer. Paired with a discard spell and some burn, these creatures can make short work of players banking too heavily on a Leyline of the Void or Rest in Peace.

No basic Plains here, but the opportunity cost of that single Blood Moon in the main is low enough to justify the enchantment regardless. There are some games that won't come easy without its help, i.e. against Scapeshift decks. In those matchups, losing access to Lightning Helix is the least of your worries. And a dead Moon can be fed to Faithless Looting.

Jund, by Tyler Lutes (3rd, SCG Louisville)

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Scavenging Ooze
1 Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet
1 Olivia Voldaren

Planeswalkers

1 Chandra, Torch of Defiance
4 Liliana of the Veil

Instants

1 Abrupt Decay
3 Fatal Push
2 Kolaghan's Command
2 Lightning Bolt
3 Terminate

Sorceries

3 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
1 Maelstrom Pulse

Lands

1 Forest
2 Swamp
4 Blackcleave Cliffs
1 Blood Crypt
3 Bloodstained Mire
1 Blooming Marsh
1 Overgrown Tomb
4 Raging Ravine
1 Stomping Ground
1 Twilight Mire
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

4 Fulminator Mage
3 Kitchen Finks
1 Stormbreath Dragon
2 Leyline of the Void
1 Ancient Grudge
1 Life Goes On
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Collective Brutality

Reid Duke said it best: nothing picks apart small creature decks like Jund. Tyler's September list borrows heavily from Duke's philosophy, down to grinning anachronism Olivia Voldaren. While I can't comment on the Vampire's viability, I will concede that discard spell into Dark Confidant is sure to pulverize any Thalia strategy out of a deck this heavy on removal spells.

Creature decks that go smaller than Humans, namely Infect and Counters Company, have sprung up to punish such removal-light strategies. Jund stands to dominate this side of the metagame and I feel it's on the cusp of a thrilling revival. Recent lists have dipped into Blood Moon and Goblin Rabblemaster to gain an edge against big mana, but doing so might not even be necessary a month from now; perhaps the full set of Fulminator Mage will do the trick.

I'd also be remiss not to mention Delirium Shadow, itself the evolution of Death's Shadow Jund (now splashing blue and white for Stubborn Denial and Lingering Souls, respectively). This deck boasts many of Jund's same tools, but gives up some robustness and stability for reversibility and consistency. Its streamlined nature makes it softer to hosers and easier to hate out, but I don't see Delirium Shadow leaving the scene in the long-term. It's just too good at doing what it does, which is basically what Jund does. And what Grixis does. And what Abzan does.

Learn to Love It All

Enjoying Modern is impossible without an appetite for diversity, Wizards's number-one measurable priority when it comes to managing the format. For some, therein lies the format's curse; without a clear subset of reliable "best decks," certain draws to other constructed formats, like Standard, are eliminated. But for many others, Modern's unending diversity is a feature, not a bug; one that encourages innovative deckbuilding, succinct metagame prediction, and an equally ravenous appetite for reps.

Modern's sky is not falling, nor has it been over the course of the year. In 2017, I've heard serious calls for bans of Eldrazi Temple, Chalice of the Void, Death's Shadow, Street Wraith, Traverse the Ulvenwald, Baral, Chief of Compliance, Vizier of Remedies, and Devoted Druid. But it seems to me like Modern is just chugging along, its gears ever-spinning and ushering in constant change: move along; nothing to see here. Or stay awhile, and dust off those Lightning Bolts for the new year!

Insider: The Hidden Treasures of Picking Bulk

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I have never quite got the hang of keeping my cards well organized, much to my detriment in the finance game. I’ve definitely made strides over the years, but I just got a blast from the past when I went through an old box of cards that I had written off as bulk years ago. The box contained a lot more than I bargained for in more ways than one.

The box was not the standard cardboard long box of cards you’re picturing, but an old copy paper box overflowing with a tangled mass of what I estimate to be around 6,000 cards, many warped from bearing the load of a shoebox full of cards that also sat in the box. The box was at one time designated as the dumpster of my collection, as I have always been something of a Magic Pack Rat, and would never be one to outright throw away cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pack Rat

The box that sat before me was the result of years of accumulation of cards I had deemed near-worthless, mostly the de-rared corpses of Limited decks, many stamped from premier-event drafts. I started putting cards in this box during college and brought it with me through multiple moves, and then it was stored and forgotten. I eventually added some picked bulk to the stack, and actually intended to give it away to friend of a friend who had recently gotten hooked on Magic, but we never linked up and the cards remained sitting in the basement.

At some point I made a concerted effort to go through all of my cards in an attempt to organize them and extract the value from the bulk. The box of cards in question sat at the bottom of the totem pole as the last priority, because they were cards that offered little promise of value for the time I was putting in. But I also knew that they were worth going through because I had some memory and familiarity with the contents, and knew it had a lot of cards from some of the juiciest sets in Modern, and I expected to find a few Lantern of Insight and other cards, which were pure bulk when I last went through it but valuable now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lantern of Insight

I eventually brought the cards upstairs to sort and process after I was done with the rest of my cards, but they sat for over a year – until last week, when I finally had enough of them sitting next to my desk and taking up space. Going through the box was not something I was looking forward to, and I saw it as sort of the ultimate Magic chore, which explains why it sat for so long.

Physically, it was challenging, as the cards were very mixed up, not sitting in nice organized rows, but all twisted randomly, so I had to grab big chunks of cards and then set out straightening them. They were a mix of up and down, backwards and forwards, and it would have been very time consuming to put them all in the same direction, but I definitely paid back time by having to constantly flip cards around to see the other side when I was picking them.

I knew that to get full value from the cards I’d have to run them through the Ion Scanner, which squeezed a ton of value from my bulk when I sorted my cards last year, but I also wasn’t ready to tackle that job, so I saw going through the cards as a way to clean up the pile into neat stacks I could put into long boxes, and a rough check to pull out the obvious money cards that would make up most of the value inside.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pull from the Deep

The first surprise hit me fast, not long into my first day of grinding through the box. I discovered an Ice Age Brainstorm, signed by Christopher Rush, that was the missing fourth copy in my Legacy playset. At one point I used all four copies, but the fourth went missing, and when it failed to turn up I had to relegate the three copies to my cardpool of playables and replace them with normal versions, lest I accidentally give away any information in a tournament with mis-matched copies. I was thrilled to find it, but I felt a different mix of emotions because I was acutely aware that the card was a lot more meaningful now – Christopher Rush passed away last year, so I had found a card that was truly irreplaceable. Between that moment and the small joy of being able to play with my signed set again, it gave meaning to the experience and singlehandedly made going through the cards worth it.

The box was also yielding a surprising amount of fruit, like a pair of Devoted Druids, and other Shadowmoor value like Cursecatcher and Manamorphose.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Devoted Druid

On the second day of going through the box, I was pleased when I found Reki, the History of Kamigawa, a perfect example of a rare that recently spiked, which was more interesting because I was discovering that the box was something of my own history. Then I found the Scapeshift, a $50 bill staring me right in the face, and I was suddenly eager to find out what else laid in this treasure chest.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scapeshift

I ended up finding plenty of value, like more full sets Devoted Druids, and Expedition Maps, a copy each of Ghostly Prison, Crumbling Ashes, and Lava Spike, and a slew of playable Modern commons. I did end up finding the Lantern of Insights I expected to find, a pair.

I even found this beauty just in time for Unstable:

I also found quite a number of useful tokens, including more than a dozen Faerie Rogue tokens that must have used with Bitterblossom, worth almost $1, and a pair of Player Rewards Spirit tokens worth $7.

The box also contained a ton of Pro Player Cards, which were contained in starter decks, and I hold onto for posterity and because I personally know many of the players. What hit me harder than finding the Brainstorm was finding the card of Gadiel Szleifer, the larger-than-life Magic genius, the news of whose sudden passing at the end of the summer shocked the community of his friends and led to an outpouring of stories about him that made it clear just how important he was to people. There are old sayings about you are the company you keep, and old Magic wisdom about the best way to improve your game is to play with people better than you. He definitely made the people around him better players, but more importantly, better in life. He inspired his friends and onlookers, and I’m keeping the card displayed as a reminder to life life to the fullest.

What’s your story of finding Magic treasure where you least expected it?

–Adam

 

Insider: An Energetic Standard and the EV of New Releases

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Daily Stock Watch – Avacyn, Angel of Hope

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Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Today is part four of our Iconic Masters special Stock Watch review, and it will be the first time that I'll be featuring a creature. For a change, I'll be talking about a card which I think will take a big hit from this reprint, financial-wise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Avacyn, Angel of Hope

Avacyn, Angel of Hope will be reprinted once more as a mythic rare in IMA. It has stayed above $20 since 2014, thanks largely to Commander demand and some cameos in Reanimator decks in Modern and Legacy, but will definitely see a price drop a few weeks from now. I actually think that all of these cards will see a price drop as well in the same time frame. The biggest question always is, who do you think has the most upside to rebound?

Iconic Masters Mythics

We're quite lucky that we didn't see a horde of Sphinxes, Hydras, or Rats getting reprinted and occupying those rare or mythic slots. It could have been a disaster that would affect the sales of IMA. Good thing going is that we'll get Angels, Demons, Praetors, and Dragons instead. However, I think that the biggest loser, value wise among the mythics, will be Avacyn.

Using my Utility Checker, I scanned all the formats where it could possibly be used to see how Avacyn is faring in the competitive scene for the year 2017. To my surprise, only a single copy of Avacyn was used on one deck that finished in the top eight of an MTGO Commander League; none made it in any other Modern, Legacy, or Duel Commander lists. This must mean that the demand for it is basically only being driven by casual demand -- and that reason, I think, is enough for you to let go of your copies.

At the moment, there are only two other printings of Avacyn besides the one from the upcoming IMA: the Avacyn Restored version, and that of From the Vault: Angels. All three printings have the same art, so I don't see too many positives in keeping spare copies unless you need them for playing or collection purposes. I'm also not a fan of how foils are being printed in FTV sets so personally, I'd choose to keep IMA foils rather than the ones from FTV. It should have more value down the road.

The current price of Avacyn (AVR version) ranges from $24 to $28, and there's no scarcity of it across online stores such as Star City Games, TCGPlayer, Channel Fireball, and Card Kingdom. If you could let go of it via trade or direct selling, I suggest that you do so now. People will start realizing that this card is too expensive and is barely utilized. Get them if the price drops to anywhere between $10-13 but I suggest you stay away from it for spec purposes if it is more expensive than that.

As for the foil copies, the price range for the FTV version ranges from $26-$33 from the same online stores I mentioned above. I don't see much of an upside in buying these even if it falls to $20, although this is more of a personal assessment. I'd gladly buy the IMA foils for $30-35, though. That is probably a better investment because it will have the authenticity seal and a better printing, material-wise.

Normal copies of Avacyn from IMA are pre-selling for $15-20 in the same stores and is the version that I'd STAY AWAY from the most. I'm not sure how low these could get, but I'll be sure to pick them up as soon as it drops to $10 or less. If you look closely at how Masters sets are being opened, this is a very likely scenario a few weeks or months from now. Grab one to two playsets if you think it would rebound nicely when supplies run dry. Otherwise, just sell or trade them away.

And that’s it for today! Check back in tomorrow for the last card that I'll feature on this special Iconic Masters edition of the Daily Stock Watch. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

 

Video Series with Ryland: UR Kiki-Jiki

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Which deck is better: UR Breach or UR Kiki-Jiki? Undoubtedly this is the question I received the most while playing this deck on Twitch. The decks are incredibly similar, both relying on Blood Moon and an A+B combo, but they do have different strengths and weaknesses. My write-up and video series with UR Breach can give you a little bit of a background on that archetype if you are interested, and here I'll largely be focusing on the differences between the two similar archetypes.

The largest advantage of the Breach deck lies within its combo. Aside from countermagic and specific discard, it can be difficult to interact with Through the Breach and even more difficult to interact with Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. Outside of tapping it with Cryptic Command (or hilariously enough a Pestermite) you are going to be "annihilated" for 6 and have to deal with 15 power coming your way. One weakness worth mentioning, however, is that 15 points is not always enough. Frequently Modern manabases will have already taken care of those first five points, and occasionally Snapcaster Mage teamed with Lightning Bolt can finish the job—but this will not always be the case. There will be close games with this deck where you attack with an Emrakul and lose anyway.

Contrast this to the Kiki deck featured today. You will always win after a successful assembly of your combo, but how often will that occur? Your pieces are dramatically more fragile. Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker is a 2/2. Pestermite is a three-mana 2/1 and Deceiver is a three-mana 1/4. Let that sink in; these pieces are not safe from Modern removal. One of your pieces (maybe two) will be soft to burn-based removal, and on top of that Path to Exile or a revolted Fatal Push are equally sufficient. Sometimes your opponent just doesn't have it or you can set up a timely tap with a redundant Pestermite, but more often than not, removal will easily break up your combo.

The strength in the UR Kiki deck lies within its plan B. Both decks have an underlying tempo plan built into the deck. Any deck with the ability to play Bolt, Snap Bolt, is going to be interested in going after their opponent's life total in some portion of its games. Instead of having an uncastable 15/15 or a five-mana do-nothing sorcery, this deck has flying 2/1s with a relevant enter-the-battlefield trigger. It does still contain a somewhat poor five-mana value creature, but most importantly it is only occupying two slots rather than four. Add Vendilion Clique, Electrolyze, and the aforementioned Snapcasters the the mix, and you have a clear tempo-oriented plan.

I've definitely had a good time with this deck thus far. While the advantages within each of the two archetypes are clear to me, I'm uncertain with archetype is better in the meta at large. I must admit at the very least I am swayed somewhat by the tempo argument within the Kiki deck; that kind of solid underlying secondary plan (arguably primary plan) is appealing to me. I discuss this a bit in the video content, but there are other avenues to explore with this archetype that remove Blood Moon and instead pursue a third color for something like Tarmogoyf, or Tasigur, the Golden Fang alongside Kolaghan's Command. I have not tested this myself but it could very well be a solid way to develop the archetype.

I hope you enjoy the matches and as usual, I'm interested to hear what kind of content you'd like to see moving forward so I can continue to evolve and improve my videos. Please let me know your thoughts, and any improvements you would like to see concerning formatting, presentation, or whatever else strikes your fancy. If you'd like to see similar content, check out my Twitch channel for some live Modern games!

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL261kJ_cAQC9MgyNHYx0QRLR8dWM8D3G9]

UR Kiki-Jiki, by Ryland Taliaferro

Creatures

2 Deceiver Exarch
2 Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
4 Pestermite
1 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
4 Snapcaster Mage
1 Vendilion Clique

Enchantments

3 Blood Moon

Instants

1 Burst Lightning
2 Cryptic Command
1 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Opt
4 Remand

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

1 Cascade Bluffs
4 Flooded Strand
7 Island
1 Mountain
1 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
2 Sulfur Falls

Sideboard

1 Anger of the Gods
1 By Force
2 Dispel
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Harvest Pyre
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Jace, Architect of Thought
1 Keranos, God of Storms
1 Negate
1 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Roast

Insider: 8 Sick Playmats for Investing

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Magic finance isn't just about speculating on cards. Technically, there are other avenues in the Magic collectible market that we can venture into as well. Today, I'd like to explore the wild and crazy world of playmats.

Let me start by saying that I remember those sad, barbaric times before playmats ever existed. You'd roll up to a Grand Prix or a PTQ and pray to god that the event had table cloths. If it didn't, you were in for an afternoon of dragging your sleeves across some sticky surfaces!

Playmats were a huge innovation and a godsend. They allow players to keep their cards off of suspect surfaces and they also allow players to personalize their space. When you are slinging on one of your all-time favorite mats it feels like you've got home-court advantage.

As it becomes more and more difficult to find great investments in Magic (everybody knows much of the same information all the time) sometimes we can get rewarded for thinking outside the box. Actually, I've found that thinking outside the box is one of the few great ways to get ahead in the MTG marketplace. That, and doing really smart and proven things over and over again...

Anyways, today is going to be a fun one because I'm going to rip through some of my all-time favorite playmats. First, before I get down to business, there are a couple of things I'd like to bring to the table about playmats.

First of all, they are kind of personal. People like different things. If I sit down and have to stare at the same image for fifteen rounds, the thing I choose to look at will probably be different from you or the next person. When it comes to investing in playmats, I think there is a lot of opportunity for subjectivity to pay dividends. If you look at a playmat and it it makes you feel something—you're like, "That looks awesome, I want it"—chances are that other people will feel the same way.

I also like playmats because they are such an obviously fantastic visual representation of Magic: The Gathering. I have several playmats that I really enjoy and have framed them and hung them on my wall and they look super awesome that way. They are large, colorful, and they really tie the room together. Framed playmats are a really nice addition/conversation piece in any game room. As the target audience of Magic continues to grow (let's be fair, we're not getting any younger...) the demand for this kind of stuff also goes up.

People remember the fun times they had at some of these events and want to find the mat again. Or, maybe they are just more willing to spend a little bit more to have a nice piece to display. Either way, the marketplace for mats really hasn't changed much in the past five years and I'm thinking maybe that is a nice place to make a few nice investments.

To be fair, I've always been pretty easy going about picking up the mats that strike me and I've done unreasonably well with my picks. Who would have thought other people would also want a playmat with Library of Alexandria on it? It's not like it is easily one of the five coolest and most iconic pieces of artwork in the entire game.

I know I prefaced today's offering with, "Buy what you like." I believe this is great advice. However, just for funsies I'm going to roar through my eight personal favorite playmats of all time.

8. 2016 Eternal Weekend Rishadan Port

Nick Coss is a boss. The Eternal Weekend playmats have all been fantastic over the past few years but I have a particular soft spot for the Rishadan Port one.

Port is such an iconic card and it has an awesome busy vibe to it. There is a lot going on in the image which gets lost on the small format of a Magic card. With the image blown up many times larger you can see the buildings and ships in great detail. There is so much going on that it is almost distracting!

I love cards like these because they are the epitome of the glory years of the old times in Magic. Whether you are playing with it or displaying it on a wall—this is a gorgeous mat.

7. Early 2000s Spellground

These are for the collector who wants to represent the true old school. These were the first playmats that I ever remember seeing and they have more of a cloth feel to them than the mouse pad feel of a modern mat.

The Spellground Mats might be a little bit antiquated by modern standards (they are less functional than a newer mat) but you're really paying for the novelty and nostalgia.

Another really neat aspect of these mats is that since they were typically colored but blank in the center, they make amazing canvases for artist alters. Back in the day, having one's Spellground mat altered by Mark Poole or Christopher Rush was like the Holy Grail of fandom. Now that Chris has passed I really wish that I hadn't been "too cool for school" to wait in line to have a Spellground Mat altered by him.

I did wise up eventually. I have a custom Black Lotus drawing on a blank playmat that I'm grateful to have had done. Nonetheless, Lotus on a Spellground is absurdly cool. I haven't seen Amy Weber at any events lately, but Time Walk on a Spellground also potentially seems like one for the wall. Or a Juzám. Or a Birds. Or a Mox Emerald...

You get my point.

6. WotC Military League

I wouldn't pick this for one that I'd personally want to own because I've never served in the military, but I thought it was worth mentioning in my Top 8 because it is really neat.

I think these are likely a really smart investment because of the military tie-in which isn't exactly common with Magic products. It's not the flashiest mat in the world but it is very cool. If I had served in the military and played Magic, I feel like I'd want one of these and imagine other people could feel the same way. Its a unique crossover between two things that mean a lot to people.

With that being said, these are already fairly pricey and I could see them being one of the eventual pinnacle items in the Mat collecting world. I have not seen many of them around and I assume they are fairly uncommon.

5. GP Columbus 2012 Platypus Goblins

I remember when this mat came out. I couldn't help but think it was easily one of the most absurd images I'd ever seen and it still is.

It's funny. It's cool. It's old. It's hip. It's kind of exactly what one would want out of a collectible image. It is very of the times.

For how iconic and difficult to track down the mat is, I feel like it still holds a fairly affordable price tag. Usually, around $75.00. To be fair, that is on the high side for a playmat but I do think this is one of the most recognizable playmats of all time. There are so many different Grand Prix playmats and people know this one is Columbus even though it was five years ago. It's because the mat has serious cachet.

4. 2017 Euro Eternal Weekend Metalworker

I didn't even realize this mat existed until fairly recently. I wasn't able to go to Europe for the event—so how would I know?

I've always had a soft spot for Metalworker and its bizarre artwork. It's just so strange and bright! It looks really cool blown up to playmat size. I assume these are cheaper overseas than in the States. This is one of the few mats on the list that I don't personally own but I wouldn't mind picking one up at some point.

I used to play the mono-blue Tinker deck in Extended before Mirrodin block got it all banned. In fact, it was the first "netdeck" that I ever played. I got the list out of Inquest Magazine and badly rolled all my friends with it. You could say that Metalworker and I go way back.

3. GP Seattle-Tacoma 2015 Delver of Secrets

I love this playmat, and not just because I made Top 4 at the event. Humblebrag deployed.

All things considered, this is an amazing playmat. There are other double-sided flip mats, but why would you want one that wasn't the greatest flip card of all time?

Not to mention, it is a Legacy card on a mat for a Legacy Grand Prix. It's basically a Legacy Player's dream. I have one that says Top 8 on it, and it is one of my favorite Magic-related items I own.

2. GP New Jersey 2014 Brainstorm

Okay, okay. If you wanted the "most Legacy" mat ever it has to be Brainstorm. I mean, Brainstorm is kinda the card that makes Legacy, Legacy.

It's an extremely popular playmat and it looks great. Basically, I feel like explaining why a Brainstorm playmat is a never-ending list of cliches. It is a Brainstorm playmat and therefore it is great. Duh.

1. 2016 Eternal Weekend VIP Library of Alexandria

In my opinion, this is the coolest-looking playmat that I've ever seen in my entire life. It is absolutely gorgeous. I use it as my mouse pad when I play MTGO and do content. I couldn't think of anything I'd rather look at for twenty hours a week!

Library of Alexandria is one of my favorite cards. I used to wreck people with it back in the 90s when I was a scrub. I saved my allowance and purchased this card because I knew it was the blade.

In fact, I quit Magic in high school. I was playing hockey and playing in bands and didn't have time for Magic. My freshman year at college I was taking a World History course and the professor started talking about the Library of Alexandria and I just couldn't help myself. I hit up a game store for the first time in four years and got hooked all over again.

It's not an easy mat to get because it was a VIP purchase but it is well worth tracking down. It's one of the coolest ones. Mark Poole also did an alternate art Library of Alexandria mat which is also neat. I prefer the old art mat. It has the perfect mix of vibrant flash and nostalgia to capture my imagination.

~

Like I said in the introduction, I'm not really an expert on playmats. I'm just a guy who loves the Magic cards. With that in mind, these are my favorite mats of all time and products that I think are potentially worth making an investment in. If you consider yourself to be a playmat expert—please by all means drop suggestions into the comment section. I'm always looking for the inside track, as are the other readers. So, I welcome that kind of input to the discussion. I'd love to hear about which mats are your favorites and hopefully mine come across as credible!

I just like what I like and when it comes to something as personal as playmats it's hard to go wrong if you enjoy it!

Daily Stock Watch – Thoughtseize

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Hi, everyone and welcome to the Wednesday edition of the Daily Stock Watch! Today marks the third day that we'll be featuring another card from Iconic Masters, which will be released over the weekend. I'll be talking about another multi-format staple that I think is something to look out for in the days to come.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

It's undeniable that Thoughtseize is very popular to both casual and competitive players. It's an auto four-of in every deck that would like to have some card disruption and sometimes, having sufficient black mana sources to cast this on the first turn is enough reason for players to include it. You see it in Vintage, Legacy, Modern, Commander, and even in Frontier. It’s always a very good card to have in your deck or collection.

Four years have passed since its last reprint (let's pretend the Invocation printing didn't affect the normal supply of the card) and we'll be finally be seeing another increase in supply of Thoughtseize on the market. Historically, its price has also seen a downward trend right after the release of Theros as the market was flooded with supply and it took a while to regain its bearings and be financially very good again.

The Discard Gang

From a Modern perspective, these are the cards that reduced/accompanied Thoughtseize in majority of the decks where it saw play. It's arguable that it is still the better card than Inquisition of Kozilek and that would mean that whatever meta game environment Modern shifts to, it will always be the default card of choice for disruption. When the well of supplies dried up early this year, the price of Thoughtseize spiked across all versions due to popularity and demand.

5C Deaths Shadow

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Street Wraith
4 Tarmogoyf

Instants and Sorceries

2 Abrupt Decay
1 Dismember
4 Fatal Push
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Stubborn Denial
1 Temur Battle Rage
1 Terminate
4 Thoughtseize
4 Traverse the Ulvenwald

Other Spells

3 Liliana of the Veil
4 Mishra's Bauble

Lands

4 Bloodstained Mire
1 Blood Crypt
2 Overgrown Tomb
4 Polluted Delta
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Watery Grave

Sideboard

1 Ancient Grudge
2 Collective Brutality
2 Disdainful Stroke
1 Godless Shrine
1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Kozilek's Return
1 Liliana, the Last Hope
3 Lingering Souls
1 Ranger of Eos
1 Stubborn Denial

Take a look at this Tier 1 5 Color Grixis Death's Shadow deck. You'd see here that there's at least two copies of almost each card (with the exception of Kolaghan's Command) that I showed you earlier. Based on my Utility Checker, 23% of top performing Modern decks for 2017 have an average of 3.2 copies of Thoughtseize on their main deck with Inquisition of Kozilek not being too far behind with 3.1 copies seeing a 22.8% usage rate. Thoughtseize is also seeing lots of action in Legacy, with an average of 2.8 copies being used on 17.5% of winning decks, while only an average of 1.9 copies of Inquisition of Kozilek are used in 3.2% percent of the field. This pretty much explains the price disparity of the two cards. We don't even have to check how it's faring in Commander and Frontier to further cement that observation.

So what point am I trying to get across?

If you'll be drafting IMA with some friends or joining tournaments with IMA as prize packs, try to trade in some unwanted cards for copies of Thoughtseize. I'd gladly buy multiple copies of it, especially if it falls in the $12-15 price range as soon as the market hits the peak for supply. The Invocation version is a thing of beauty, but I'd gladly settle for foil IMA versions if it goes down to like $60-70 (Star City Games is pre-selling it for $119.99 and it's out of stock) because only the Invocation copy is worthy of a $100 price tag in my opinion.

At the moment, you could still grab Theros copies of Thoughtseize from TCGPlayer with the price range varying from anywhere between $10.76 to $17.99 based on card condition. You should be able to snag near mint copies from Channel Fireball for $15.99, while Star City Games has decided to make both Theros and IMA copies available at $19.99. Unless you're a collector or someone who fancies first prints, stay away from buying Lorwyn copies but hang on to it if you have them. I also think that you should hold on to your foil copies, whatever versions it might be. Don’t worry so much about a foil price drop because the card is always relevant and wanted across all formats.

And that’s it for today! Check back in tomorrow as we continue this special edition of the Daily Stock Watch. As always, feel free to share your opinion in the comments section below. And if you want to keep up with all the market movement, be sure to check in with the QS Discord Channel for real time market information, and stay ahead of the hottest specs!

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