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Chart Toppers: Counter-Cat After Ixalan

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My Ixalan spoiler review covered cards leaked back in June, and was published well before Wizards revealed the full expansion. As such, it didn't discuss Chart a Course, a spell spoiled during the Magic: Arena unveiling that has me giddier than anything else in the set.

Chart a Course has shown promise in my go-to Delver deck, Counter-Cat. This article closely analyzes the card there, primarily in relation to its main foil, Snapcaster Mage.

Plundering Secrets

I've written about drawing extra cards in threshold decks before. In short: it rules. Thresh is loaded with cards so efficient it can afford to make tempo-negative plays (like cast cantrips) and yet play to establishing and maintaining a board advantage, so drawing into more of them at a discounted rate is hugely powerful. While Chart a Course is no Gush or Treasure Cruise, it does offer thresh players more cards on the cheap.

Chart a Course: Face Value

Chart has something special over equally costed selection cantrips like Anticipate and Strategic Planning: it fixes our hand. Cantrips that interact with the hand are among the best (see: Brainstorm), as they give casters more options. The benefit of hand-fixing on a cantrip is so high that I've included Faithless Looting in decks with little to no graveyard synergy.

Obviously, though, Chart excels in a deck that attacks throughout the game. Its ensuing Divination mode vividly evokes Night's Whisper. Whisper is seldom played in Modern outside of critical-mass combo decks like Grishoalbrand, for a couple reasons: first, Modern has always been tempo-centric, deterring players from casting two-mana sorceries that don't impact the board; second, Whisper's life loss adds up over multiple copies, further compounding the tempo issue. Modern decks skip out on Dismember for similar reasons, despite the card being one of the most efficient and reliable kill spells in the format—they're already built to push their life totals to the limit relative to their aggro matchups.

Whisper sees play as a one- or two-of in Czech Pile, the new poster-boy for fair Legacy decks. That deck is a literal "pile" of the 60 best cards in the format. Whisper isn't even blue for Force of Will, testifying to the potential of a two-mana "draw two" and reminding us that pure card advantage at this price point is scarce and exciting.

Chart is significantly better than Whisper in shells that can support it, as noted by Jarvis Yu in an article that has him singing its praises for eternal formats. And Modern has become less tempo-centric with the arrival of Grixis Shadow, which also bodes well for the card.

Whether Chart a Course succeeds here depends on if it finds a home. Of course, Pile-style rock decks can't assimilate Chart themselves; such decks spend early turns disrupting, not attacking. Neither can linear aggro, which favors blitzing opponents to out-grinding them. That leaves spell-based tempo, or threshold decks.

Chart in Counter-Cat

When it comes to thresh decks in Modern, I feel Counter-Cat is the strongest option. And at a glance, it seems Chart fits perfectly into that deck. Chart gets us ahead on cards in grindy games without compromising our core gameplan, a previously impossible feat (Modern's other card advantage tools are tough for Delver decks to adopt). In doing so, the spell addresses one of Counter-Cat's longstanding weaknesses.

Counter-Cat occasionally chokes on mana and struggles to play out its cards optimally; in these scenarios, clunky midrange spells like Snapcaster or Huntmaster can clog. But Chart plows through the deck and into land drops. Besides netting us mana over longer games, Chart does work in a flood, launching us into mini-combo turns wherein we string a bunch of cantrips together and refill on business. As Treasure Cruise taught us, cards beget cards.

The discard clause on Chart is barely a drawback here. With eight functional Delvers and seven functional Goyfs, Counter-Cat is built to apply pressure quickly, allowing us to skirt it altogether. And in lieu of an attacker, Counter-Cat is bound to stockpile dead fetches in longer games, which Chart chews past admirably.

Accommodating Chart

Our most recent build of Counter-Cat, which features Disrupting Shoal, has performed well for Kelsey and I in the current metagame. I wanted to keep its core constant when incorporating Chart. Doing so involved establishing the build's essential pieces, so that I could tweak the uncovered flex spots freely in testing to identify the right number for the Ixalan uncommon.

At first, I excluded Mandrills #3 and the Scours from this list. I knew I needed two instant-speed cantrips, and figured I could trim the Ape and run Opt instead if a build called for it. Mandrills naturally proved too exceptional to only include at two copies, and in my preliminary testing with Opt, I ended up missing the velocity from Scour even on zero Snapcasters. After tinkering with several configurations, I realized running two Scours to support a third Mandrills was indeed optimal, and included that package in the core.

Since Sleight of Hand and Chart a Course are both sorcery-speed cantrips, I also excluded Sleight from the core's first draft, at one point testing a list with 4 Serum, 4 Chart, and 0 Sleight. I soon realized running a pair was integral to repairing precarious openers, despite paling in early-game effectiveness compared with Serum Visions. Sleight offers the next-best-thing in terms of hitting that crucial second land drop, and of course wows as a topdeck.

Counter-Cat w/ Shoal: Core

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Hooting Mandrills

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
2 Thought Scour
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Spell Pierce
2 Mana Leak

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
2 Sleight of Hand

With our standard 18 lands, the core leaves 4 spots for other cards—all of them blue to surpass Disrupting Shoal's magic number, 22. I wanted 2 Chart a Course at minimum, but since it's a novel addition, I didn't include it in the core. Realistically, then, we have two slots remaining. I messed around with these options in varying combinations all week.

  • 1 Snapcaster Mage: Ideal for metagames teeming with aggro-control and aggro-combo. We can't play more than one of this expensive creature main.
  • Disrupting Shoal #4: Ideal for linear aggro and combo metagames. Chart ups our ability to Shoal for two, the ultimate number (we have Leak/Pierce up for three-drops and generate the most tempo from countering a two-drop for no mana). It also helps negate Shoal's card disadvantage, and Shoal lets us continue interacting while tapping out for Chart on turn two. Chart even draws us into the lands that make hard-casting Shoal attractive later.
  • 1-2 Spell Snare: Post-Fatal Push, Snare's stock dipped as its prey was squeezed out of the format. Decks like Eldrazi, Company, and even Shadow make a mockery of the card. Snare has served Counter-Cat well over the years, but I was relieved to cut it from this new build.
  • Sleight of Hand #3: 4 Sleight was always too many in testing, as it's never phenomenal early. Still, it does repair lacking hands better than Chart at only one mana. Chart is predominantly the better topdeck.
  • Chart a Course #3-4: For more on this card, keep on reading.

Spell Snare wasn't missed in testing. Our costed permission exists to trade one-for-one with spells we can't cleanly answer with removal, like Primeval Titan, Collected Company, and planeswalkers. All Snare tackles in this category is Snapcaster Mage. I tried the fourth Shoal to compensate for the lack of Snare; it ended up being superfluous.

The battle between Snapcaster Mage and Chart a Course is a bit more complicated, so we'll explore that in detail.

Snapcaster vs. Chart

Snapcaster Mage and Chart a Course fulfill alike purposes in Counter-Cat: they trade our mana for cards. They do so in dissimilar ways, and are each suited to disparate game states. This section illustrates their conflict.

We'll center this debate around the mana factor. Gone are the days of slamming Snapcaster Mage on turn two and flashing back Gitaxian Probe for zero; now, plussing off the Wizard costs at minimum three mana (two for Snap himself and more for the flashed-back spell). Chart a Course offers a more conditional plus (we need to have attacked), and costs just two mana. Both spells put us up by one card. So what does Snapcaster offer us that Chart doesn't to justify its steeper mana cost?

Draws to Snap

The two cards we "draw" with Snapcaster Mage are set in stone. One is an instant or sorcery in our graveyard, which we must cast this turn. The other is a 2/1 body with flash. Comparatively, Chart a Course always offers us mystery cards, barring a scry—the two on top of our deck. This divergence forms the backbone of Snap's pros and cons over Chart.

Chart is unparalleled in straight attrition matchups, since we just need cards there; Snap wins out in games that become more answer-focused. He's great in matchups where we want more copies of a key spell such as Path to Exile, since he lets us run a functional five—Chart amasses our existing resources; Snapcaster creates more.

In terms of matchups, Snapcaster appears better suited for two types of opponents: removal-heavy aggro-control and linear aggro-combo.

Snap affects the board, either by establishing or enhancing a clock, or by flashing in to block an opponent's creature. That gives him the edge against decks preventing us from ever establishing a clock, perhaps more so now that attacking soups up our cantrips. Overloading enemy removal is our goal in these matchups, and we'd frequently prefer one of the cards we net off our plussing spell be a 2/1 on the field than a blind pull.

Snap triumphs during races, too: where tempo matters, so does a body. That includes aggro-combo. Take Burn, where flashing back Bolt or Pierce while turning sideways or trading with Goblin Guide is infinitely more appealing than tapping down lands in the main phase to draw cards.

Unlike Chart, which can theoretically become two fetchlands, Snap cannot "miss." He also plusses every time, whereas Chart sometimes asks us to discard. This fidelity is Snap's chief boon: he always represents a 2/1 and a binned instant or sorcery. His other main perk: Snap's interactivity buys us time, so he amends threatless hands and combats targeted discard. No card in the deck plays better from behind.

Draws to Chart

There are times when a 2/1, or the cards in our graveyard, don't matter. Chart offers hope regardless of the situation.

For example, Snap does very little in the early game. If we don't have instants or sorceries we want to flash back in our graveyard, he's nearly uncastable. But Chart a Course joins Goyf as a sweet follow-up to a one-drop. We rarely need to hold up countermagic as of turn two in this deck, so Chart a Course gives us a second-turn play that proactively advances our gameplan without overcommitting resources to the board. Chart can also be resolved early to sculpt our hand, attack or no.

So Chart's got the advantage early on. What about later? I originally thought Snapcaster Mage was strictly better late-game than Chart a Course. After all, we'll have a juicy graveyard by then, not to mention enough mana to invalidate Snap's most immediate pitfall. Chart has pulled me deeply ahead in enough late-games that I've come to reconsider this position.

At the end of the day, drawing two in a cantrip-heavy, bomb-heavy, 18-land deck is ridiculous, especially in the mid- to late-game when five or six of our lands have been fetched out. I've found the raw harvest of Chart's rips to rival the utility of Snap's precision in many games, although sometimes we really do want a particular card, and happen to have a copy sitting in the graveyard.

Chart also ignores grave hate. When opponents land Rest in Peace, Snapcaster's simply a sad body. Sans Chart, we'd be locked out of card advantage avenues until our fourth land drop.

Following that thread a bit, Chart beats out Snap at locating undrawn cards. That boosts its value post-board, when we badly want to see Tamiyo, Field Researcher, Ancient Grudge, Pyroclasm, or other win-buttons. With Charts in the deck, I have found and cast my hate more consistently than ever, as well as resolved better Needles and Explosives—cards with high ceilings and narrow optimal windows gain the most from extra digging.

Finally, Chart harmonizes with our threat suite. An unraided Chart makes us discard a card, which stuffs our graveyard for Tarmogoyf and Hooting Mandrills. And Chart's decisive typing reinforces Delver of Secrets.

Making Peace

There's a limit to the amount of Snaps Counter-Cat can run, both because of his mana cost and because he cuts into our instant/sorcery count. Subsequently, the deck can struggle against grindy midrange strategies. But since our new card advantage spell doesn't have these problems, we can run as many as we choose, increasing our odds against anyone casting Inquisition of Kozilek without sacrificing the integrity of our other components.

That's not to say we should totally abandon Snapcaster Mage. When played together, Chart and Snapcaster gel into a formidable card advantage engine. Snap flashes Chart back to draw more cards, or comes down on the opponent's turn to then attack, enabling raid. He makes for a dynamic pickup with the draw spell.

So, is Snapcaster "better enough" to be worth the third mana? I'm not comfortable dipping below 26 instants and sorceries, and would certainly rather a third Mandrills than a second Snap. But as a singleton, the Wizard earns his spot. I'm even following Kelsey's lead in adding a second to the side—post-board, we have more key spells to rebuy, as well as enough mana to support Snapcaster.

Pawing It All Together

For reference, here's what we ran in the four spare slots pre-Ixalan:

  • 1 Snapcaster Mage
  • 1 Sleight of Hand
  • 2 Spell Snare

Now, I'm on these:

  • 1 Snapcaster Mage
  • 3 Chart a Course

Kelsey runs another Sleight over the third Chart, and we're watching to determine which is best. Sleight's preferable in mana-light game states, which the deck often encounters pre-side.

Counter-Cat, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Wild Nacatl
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile
2 Thought Scour
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Spell Pierce
2 Mana Leak

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
2 Sleight of Hand
3 Chart a Course

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
2 Arid Mesa
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Flooded Strand
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Steam Vents
1 Temple Garden
1 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

1 Snapcaster Mage
2 Huntmaster of the Fells
1 Tamiyo, Field Researcher
2 Spreading Seas
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Negate
1 Engineered Explosives
1 Pithing Needle
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Pyroclasm

Charting Elsewhere

A few players have sought my opinion on Chart a Course in other Delver decks, specifically regarding UR shells. Given the low number of quality threats available to UR, though, that deck already maxes out on Snapcaster Mage, and as such has plenty of card advantage built into its framework. Chart should improve the deck without solving its problems, which makes me less interested in its applications there.

Chart does solve problems for Counter-Cat, though, which already possesses the tools UR lacks: robust threats; heavy-duty removal; sideboard haymakers. An economical, mechanically synergistic way to access more of those tools is just what the veterinarian ordered, and I'm eager to discover exactly how much wind Chart a Course blows into our sails.

Ixalan: Standard Market Winners after Rotation

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Editor's note: Never fear, we're actively working to fix the price population and set identifiers for the graphs below, which were messed up in the process of making other improvements to Trader Tools. The card images and graphs below are accurate, so we've chosen to continue including them despite the temporary partial functionality. Thank you for your patience!

The official Ixalan release was immediately followed by a weekend of high-profile SCG events providing a clear window to the post-rotation metagame. The market has reacted swiftly and severely, and the top performers have seen some massive price increases. Today, I’ll go over the biggest gainers and glean some insight into what is driving their movement. There are some metagame and market trends occurring on Magic Online that could be harbingers of things to come, so I’ll also explore these cards with the goal of identifying the next cards due to spike.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hostage Taker

The most notable winner from the week and now clearly one of the very finest cards in Ixalan is Hostage Taker, which saw its price approximately triple from around $6 to $18. This price seems too high to be sustained, but as a four-of in multiple top decks, it’s going to maintain a very strong price going forward. Last weekend, Hostage Taker was splashed into Black-Green Energy to create a Sultai Energy deck that is the current deck to beat, it was added to Temur decks already splashing black, and it drove God Pharaoh's Gift decks into black. It’s going to be a major part of the metagame going forward and will be added to any deck that can support it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Scarab God

Another big winner is The Scarab God, which can sit alongside Hostage Taker and be used in the same decks splashing it. It’s a part of Temur Black, Sultai, Esper Gift, Blue-Black Control, and will be included in any Blue-Black-X deck that emerges. Now at $40, its price is geting quite high, especially for a card that is often just a one or two-of, so I expect this to begin a slow decline back to its former $30 price point as the hype subsides.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathgorge Scavenger

Deathscorge Scavenger has taken the lead as the most successful Dinosaur of Ixalan so far, but not as expected. It is being used in some Dinosaur tribal decks, but it has truly excelled as a sideboard option that can be used for its lifegain against Mono-Red and other aggressive decks. It was included as a four-of in the sideboard of SCG Open winning Sultai deck, and I expect it to become a staple in Temur and all other variety of green midrange decks, including any competitive Dinosaur decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gifted Aetherborn

Gifted Aetherborn doubled from $1.50 to over $3, making it the most expensive uncommon in Kaladesh. It’s interesting, because the increase isn’t tied to any SCG results, seeing as it was not included in any of the top decks last weekend, but it is being used in various black aggro decks that are seeing success online. I expect that if the card does catch on in top decks, the price could increase further.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Approach of the Second Sun

White-Blue control decks with Approach of the Second Sun exceeded expectation by putting two copies into the SCG top eight and proving it is very much a top-tier deck after rotation. The price of its namesake spiked from around $0.75 to over $3, and many of its other staples have followed suit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Settle the Wreckage

Settle the Wreckage appears to be very playable, and the price has grown accordingly, from $2.50 to around $5.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fumigate

Fumigate has doubled in price from $2 to $4 due to use in White-Blue Control. It’s being used heavily online in token decks, so if these catch on then the price could go even higher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Authority of the Consuls

Authority of Consuls is essential for the White-Blue control decks, so its price has moved from $2 to $4

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tezzeret the Schemer

Tezzeret the Schemer has continued its growth, moving up from $5 to $8 this week. Grixis Improvise proved itself as a top contender with its victory in the SCG Classic by Zac Elsik, and the price of the planeswalker will see even more growth if the deck catches on with a wider audience.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fetid Pools

One of the more startling price increases in the last week has been the doubling of Fetid Pools from $4 to $8. The card is used in nearly every deck with black and blue mana, which includes the top performers Sultai, Temur Black, and Esper Gift, along with Grixis Improvise and all variety of Black-Blue Control. Its price increase is correlated with the massive rise of Hostage Taker and the dominance of The Scarab God, so its price should maintain strongly as long as these cards remain on top of the metagame.

Online Indicators

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vraska, Relic Seeker

Vraska, Relic Seeker is being used as a three-of in an Abzan Token deck that is on the rise online with multiple 5-0 finishes. A copy in the sideboard of the SCG Open winning Sultai deck, along with applications in Temur Black and Sultai Control decks, means that its price is likely due for a paper increase. It has grown from 8 tix to 12 online over the past week, so its $14 point could be headed towards $20 as the other planeswalkers in Ixalan begin to trend downwards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Legion's Landing

Legion's Landing has found a great home in the Abzan Tokens deck, which has brought its price up to over 4 tix from 2.5. It looks like a bargain at under $3, especially compared to the other enchantments in the cycle that are significantly less expensive but will see less competitive play.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anointed Procession

A possible spec for the token deck is Anointed Procession, which is a key four-of build-around in that deck with a lot of long-term casual appeal. Its online price has grown from around 0.25 tix to 1.2 tix since the Ixalan release. Its paper price is already approaching $7, so if Abzan Tokens becomes a top-tier deck its price would be in position to break $10.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sheltered Thicket

With Fetid Pools up to $8, the other lands in the cycle are beginning to look like bargains that are due for a price increase. I have harped on these lands being among the best buys going into rotation, and we likely still haven’t seen their price peak.

What Standard cards are you speculating on?

–Adam

Insider: Friday Night With Quiet Speculation: Presented by Jake and Joel are Magic – October 6, 2017

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Insider: Ixalan Box Report & Weekend Winners

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Welcome to this installment of my #BoxReport series. In this article series we break down the value of actual boxes of Magic that I’ve opened, note the value, and talk about the price direction of cards in the set.

Initially, Ixalan has looked like many other sets before it with the planeswalkers at the top of the price food chain during preorder season. We had Growing Rites of Itlimoc and Carnage Tyrant at the top of the curve too which is cool and interesting. Now that we’ve had our first tournament, we’re already seeing some movement in the highly played cards from SCG Dallas.

I think this is going to be better, waiting until after this event to evaluate the box price. Previously I’ve written this article before the initial price changes have started happening, so I think this will work out a bit more accurately. Often times the Pro Tour will change a lot as well, so I may revisit this article after that event and update you guys. I think Ixalan has a ton of potential and once we see what the format will actually look like, I think the set will prove more valuable, but time will tell.

Let’s jump into the Box Report!

Box 1

$1 Axis of Mortality
$1 Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle
$6 Search for Azcanta
$4 Vraska's Contempt
$4 Dire Fleet Captain
$1.5 Deadeye Tracker
$3 Rampaging Ferocidon
$13 Growing Rites of Itlimoc
$2.5 Shapers' Sanctuary
$4.5 Deathgorge Scavenger
$9 Ripjaw Raptor
$5 Vona, Butcher of Magan
$2 Treasure Map
$2 Primal Amulet
$2 Vanquisher's Banner
$2.5 Dragonskull Summit
$4 Drowned Catacomb
$2 Sunpetal Grove

$4 2x Unclaimed Territory

$6 Foil Drowned Catacomb
$15 Foil Vona, Butcher of Magan

Box 1 Total: $94

To me this seems like an average box. We have three mythics, none of which are amazing. The rares help this box a bit and the bomb uncommon, Unclaimed Territory, helps your boxes a lot too. Search for Azcanta, Vraska's Contempt, and Drowned Catacomb have all gone up a bit since release, but Growing Rites of Itlimoc has gone down a bit to average them out.

I think your foils are more likely to help you out from this set as well. The Vona, Butcher of Magan definitely bumped the final price of this box up for sure, but there are tons of great foils in this set. Every flip card has a decent foil price and plenty of other cards in the set are solid foils as well.

Box 2

$1 Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle
$1 Ashes of the Abhorrent
$2 Kopala, Warden of Waves
$1.5 Spell Swindle
$4 Dire Fleet Captain
$1.5 Fathom Fleet Captain
$2 Ruin Raider
$1.5 Star of Extinction
$3 Growing Rites of Itlimoc
$9 Ripjaw Raptor
$2.5 Shapers' Sanctuary
$13 Vraska, Relic Seeker
$2 Vanquisher's Banner
$2 Sorcerous Spyglass
$2 Primal Amulet
$2.5 Glacial Fortress

$4 2x Unclaimed Territory

$8 Foil Legion's Landing

Box 2 Total: $62

As you can see here, this is probably the worst you are likely to see from this set. It could have been a little worse without the foil Legion's Landing, which as I said before, has a pretty decent foil multiplier. The double-sided foils just look so cool right!? I think they do, and so do others based on the prices of these new cards. Still, this was a pretty disappointing box and I hope you don’t get one like this.

Box 3

$2.5 Legion's Landing
$3 Settle the Wreckage
$1.5 Tocatli Honor Guard
$1.5 Spell Swindle
$13 Jace, Cunning Castaway
$2 Ruin Raider
$4 Vraska's Contempt
$2.5 Rampaging Ferocidon
$3 2 Captain Lannery Storm
$1.5 Star of Extinction
$2.5 Shapers' Sanctuary
$3 Dowsing Dagger
$1.5 Treasure Map
$4 2 Sorcerous Spyglass
$7 Regisaur Alpha
$10 Huatli, Warrior Poet
$15 Hostage Taker
$2.5 Admiral Beckett Brass
$2.5 Rootbound Crag
$2.5 Glacial Fortress
$2.5 Dragonskull Summit
$2 Sunpetal Grove

$4 2x Unclaimed Territory

Box 3 Total: $93.5

Seems like we have another average box here. The inflated price of Hostage Taker right now contributed toward this box's total. We will most likely see that price dip back down in another week or two unless the pros prove its worth.

The card is definitely good, but the problem is that there are approximately fifty ways to kill it and basically every removal spell in the format does so. Just in red, one of the most popular colors right now, there are a bunch of great and efficient ways. I know Hostage Taker just won the SCG Open, but it’s not where I want to be for sure. Unclaimed Territory I do love, though. Horde those for sure.

Box 4

$1 Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle
$1.5 Tocatli Honor Guard
$2 Kopala, Warden of Waves
$1.5 Fathom Fleet Captain
$1.5 Deadeye Tracker
$2 Vance's Blasting Cannons
$4.5 Deathgorge Scavenger
$13 Growing Rites of Itlimoc
$9 Ripjaw Raptor
$24 Carnage Tyrant
$3 Dowsing Dagger
$2 Primal Amulet
$2 Thaumatic Compass
$2 Vanquisher's Banner
$2.5 Tishana, Voice of Thunder
$5 Vona, Butcher of Magan
$7 Regisaur Alpha
$2.5 Rootbound Crag
$2.5 Glacial Fortress
$4 Drowned Catacomb

$4 2x Unclaimed Territory

$6.5 Foil Spell Swindle
$1 Foil Emperor's Vanguard
$8 Foil Tishana, Voice of Thunder

Box 4 Total: $112

Bomb box four here is probably up there in terms of best boxes. Outside of foil planeswalkers, I think this is what the peak of your expectations should be. This box had some of the best cards in the set all in one box!

Total Value

Box Average: $88

If we take a look at the average, $88 per box is definitely decent. That means not only are you getting all of the sweet cards from the set but your investment is pretty good as well. A lot of times we buy boxes because we need the cards, so losing money isn’t really on our mind. But when we get good value also, that’s the perfect spot to be.

Nothing will be better than boxes with Masterpieces, because when you hit, you make a huge profit. That said, for a set without Masterpieces, Ixalan is shaping up nicely.

In doing some research for this article series, I stumbled upon a site that aggregates TCG price data for sets. The site actually tracks the total value of a set, so comparing with my findings is great. According to the TCG mid for Ixalan, the average price per box should be a bit higher than what I personally opened. They have the average at just over $96 per Ixalan box. I’ll have to keep that site in mind the next time I revisit this article series.

One important note that stuck out to me was the number of lands per box and per case. The buddy lands seem to be averaging about three of each per case or, if you’re lucky, a playset of each. Regarding Unclaimed Territory, you should get about a playset of that one per case as well. These lands may be inexpensive, but I’m sold out of buddy lands and I’ve sold a ton of Territories. The price memory of players plus the extra printings will keep the price down, but the demand will always be there. They are great cards to always have in stock.

Top Finance Winners From Last Weekend

One of the most important things to know in regards to finance is not just what cards might spike, but also which cards have gained value for you. Some cards from this past weekend stuck out to me as the big winners from the weekend.

The clear best winner has to be The Scarab God, with second place going to Hostage Taker. Both of these cards more than doubled their previous price points thanks to the first-place deck from SCG Dallas utilizing them. Those cards were the hot news from the weekend, so I’m sure you already know about them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Scarab God

Hostage Taker should drop back down quickly, but The Scarab God might stick around with a huge price tag. There are no really expensive cards from Hour of Devastation so that makes it more likely that this god will be the top of the food chain for that set. Gabriel Nassif said this week that The Scarab God is the best card in Standard. If other pros think that too, we could have this guy stick around the $30 price point for a while.

One of the things I realized early in testing was that Metallic Mimic is the best lord for any of the Ixalan tribes. None of the tribes really have a lord. Pirates has Admiral Beckett Brass but she doesn’t feel like he counts because she’s three colors. Payoff cards like Dire Fleet Captain or Fathom Fleet Captain are more like lords than Brass.

In Merfolk, Kopala, Warden of Waves is a nice incentive but it doesn’t grant the lord buff to your other creatures stats. Same goes for Regisaur Alpha for Dinosaurs. He feels like the lord but doesn’t do normal lord-style things. Metallic Mimic does exactly what we want a lord to do and it can be played for any Ixalan tribe or other Standard tribe. I think players are realizing this as well because Mimic’s price bumped up a couple bucks this weekend too.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Metallic Mimic

I don’t know what the pros are cooking up, but Tezzeret the Schemer also increased a bit recently as well. This was the most interesting card that I found and it definitely has the potential to jump even more if a deck breaks out at the pro tour containing new Tezzeret. I think it’ll settle back down but it would be cool if Tezzeret got his own deck at some point.

Walking Ballista is gaining some ground again. Players may have set their Ballistas aside briefly, but this is still a super versatile and powerful card. The fact that anyone can play it makes its price ceiling higher than it would normally be. All we need for this card to jump again is for it to find a real home instead of being played sporadically here and there in a variety of strategies.

Gideon of the Trials is definitely not as good as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar but that’s because he’s different. Trials is only three mana and that’s obviously a huge deal. I haven’t seen anyone advocating him, but from my testing he’s been great. Gideon has gone up despite not much attention so if he turns up in a winning deck, I’d expect him to go up even more. Keep an eye on him from the Pro Tour for sure.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon of the Trials

Fetid Pools and Drowned Catacomb both ticked up most likely from the popularity of the blue-black color combination but also because of the deck that won the Open. I like all of the lands in Standard and they play really well with each other too. Your tap land actually makes your other dual land come into play untapped. That typically doesn’t happen.

Wrap-Up

That’s all for me today. Hopefully I gave you some good info about the value of your boxes and what to expect if you’re planning on opening some up, as well as some current cards to watch.

Standard right now is super exciting to me. I built four decks and I might put together a couple more. I love the format and I think Ixalan will give us tons of new archetypes. I think most of the breakout cards from the Pro Tour will be from Ixalan and not from previous sets, but hold off on unloading your cards until after the event. That way you can maximize your profits.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
MtgJedi on YouTube

Insider: Dealing with Difficult Buyers

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Last weekend I teamed up with a couple of my buds and drove across the country to compete in the Team Grand Prix in Providence. Our pool was pretty shallow and we dove headfirst into an unfortunate mediocre 4-4 finish. We had a blast, we just didn't win too much. Mad props to fellow QS writer Adam Yurchick for being an awesome teammate to spend the weekend chilling with!

As disappointing as driving halfway across the country to finish 4-4 in an event that I put a lot of preparation into is, it wasn't the most disappointing or unfortunate aspect of my weekend. I had some extremely unfortunate experiences with onsite buyers that were extremely irritating.

I've sold a lot of cards in my life. I've also been a booth buyer many, many times. I have a pretty good idea of how things go down and what to expect. However, I was pretty surprised by some of my experiences in Providence.

I've been writing a lot about Old School cards and how I think they are a great investment at the moment. On top of that, I'm actively trying to get the last cards for my Old School Battle Box. My plan was to bring a bunch of my extra stuff to the Grand Prix and trade it toward some of the cards that I wanted.

Traditionally, I've always had pretty good luck with trading for cards in the dealer hall and found the experience to be fairly easy and straightforward. However, this time around things didn't go quite as flawlessly as usual.

Selling in Providence

Grand Prix Providence had fewer dealers than I would have expected. In addition, I wasn't particularly familiar with some of the booth brands. Typically, there are certain vendors that I preference selling to because I feel comfortable that I'll be treated fairly and respectfully.

Anyways, I rolled the dice with some new buyers and was extremely underwhelmed. Here are a few of the things I noticed that I thought were extremely uncool, and how I'd urge others to try and avoid these situations in the future.

1. Buyers Offering Less Than the Posted Price

There were eight vendors on site and I dealt with all of them over the course of the weekend. Of the eight dealers, three of them actively made offers on cards for less than their posted prices. Some dealers did it multiple times! Are you kidding me!?

So, I'm sitting there with their buylist on the table and they are making offers on cards that are just less than what is posted on their buylist. Also, it is early Friday of the event—not like they were out of cash or already had ample opportunity to buy infinite copies. In fact, there were a few times where the card in question was on their "Most Wanted" wipeboard, so I'm certain these were cards they actively wanted.

It's very frustrating to be offered $6 on a card that is on the buylist for $9, for a couple of reasons. The first reason is obvious: it is less money than they should offer.

Secondly, it completely breaks down the trust that is necessary to make a deal. If I can't trust the buyer to make fair offers on my cards, why should I even bother dealing with this person? Why wouldn't I just move along to another buyer?

That is exactly what I did. I politely pointed out the price discrepancy, and that I no longer trusted or felt comfortable making a deal, and packed up my cards to end the transaction. I also asked to speak with the person in charge of the booth and told them about the experience and who the buyer was.

I don't know if this experience is commonplace or not. It doesn't happen with the buyers I usually sell to (and I would certainly never run that nonsense as a buyer) but I found it to be extremely frustrating.

I don't like being a "tattletale" or whatever, but no matter what the reason, I feel like it should be brought to the attention of the vendor manager. It could very well be the case that that behavior is encouraged. But if the buyer is just going rogue, the manger should know that behavior cost them a buy.

2. Selling Bulk Rares Was a Gigantic Hassle

I don't know exactly why this was the case but it was. I had about 500 bulk rares to sell and had a very difficult time moving them.

The standard going rate has traditionally been $0.10 per bulk rare. I understand that perhaps dealers don't have a ton of room to transport bulk rares. I'm not complaining about people who don't want to buy them for that purpose—I'm bringing it up for another reason.

One thing I noticed was that dealers were buying bulk rares but that they didn't want to pay ten cents. So, instead they were offering between seven and eight cents a card. I was told that another dealer had released over five million bulk rares into circulation over the last few weeks and that people just were not buying.

I wanted to share that fact. Could the ten-cents-per-card standard be about to drop based on an overabundance of bulk rares in circulation? I don't know but it is interesting.

I also had a few dealers say they would look through my bulk rares and pick ones they would take for ten cents. Ha, ha. Yeah, right...

I did find a dealer to buy my bulk rares toward the end of my trip. I guess they changed their mind about only wanting to pay seven cents.

3. Dealers Who "Don't Really Want" Your Cards

Another trend that I noticed among some of the buyers was that they acted like they were not particularly interested in buying my cards. Do you know the routine? The buyer goes through your entire binder and is like, "There's nothing in there I really need but I guess I'll make some offers on some stuff..." Ho-hum.

Maybe it's true. Maybe all of my cards suck. Or... Maybe the buyer just wants me to think my cards all suck so he can offer less money and I'll think I'm getting a great deal on my terrible cards. I'm certain it's the latter, considering I had thousands of cards, all of which would be on most buylists.

Maybe it's just good salesmanship for scamming newbies, but it's seriously annoying, deceitful, and disrespectful. My advice to anybody who finds themselves in this position is to move along and find a buyer who is actually interested in what you have to sell.

Etiquette in Vending

I'm not trying to call out anybody in particular but I wanted to shine a light on a few of these things.

For one thing, I don't typically have experiences like this when I sell cards. As I've noted, I typically deal with vendors that I know and trust. It's a lot different when you don't know the people you're dealing with. That's why building a good, solid rapport with the people you deal with is so important.

Secondly, I wanted to write about this stuff because if there are readers who are just getting into the wheeling and dealing side of Magic and have less experience dealing with vendors, I wanted them to know that this stuff shouldn't be tolerated and isn't normal.

If you find yourself dealing with somebody who is treating you unfairly or rudely, get up and walk away. That goes for trades and basically everything else in life as well. Find somebody who will treat you fairly and be straightforward with you. Buying cards is a great way to earn some extra cash or trade for some exciting new cards, so don't let difficult buyers make it hard or bad for you.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for October 4th, 2017

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of October 2, 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although both Aether Revolt (AER) and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

 

Standard

When it comes to timing the buy side of MTGO speculating, one very straightforward strategy is to target cards and their sets just prior to the release of the next set. This is because drafters are keeping the market well supplied with a steady influx of cards from the packs they have cracked in draft. Once this supply dries up, the price of singles corrects. All Standard sets are flashing green this week on MTGO as prices go through this correction process, though of course the price of Ixalan (XLN) will inevitably fall.

The question of when to sell is another matter entirely. With both Amonkhet (AKH) and Hour of Devastation (HOU) powering into the mid-60-tix price range, timing the sell side of this position has become very relevant. Although I have been happily selling my copies of The Scarab God this week, whether or not to sell my full sets of AKH and HOU is a question in my mind. Selling now might make sense if there were lots of good opportunities to deploy those tix into, but if I am not tix-constrained, then trying to get the highest price would be my best strategy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Scarab God

In trying to answer the question of when to sell, it's always informative to compile historical data and to see if any patterns emerge, and that's what I've done below. The table gives the price peak and the month of the peak for Khans of Tarkir (KTK) all the way up to the recently rotated Eldritch Moon (EMN). The peak is defined as the highest weekly price (as reported in the MTGO Market Report) after a set is no longer being actively drafted. This covers the last eight sets that were Standard legal.

The easiest takeaway from this table is that sets  tend to peak in price between November and February. Although trying to grab the absolute price peak might not make sense from an opportunity-cost perspective, it's still informative to see that KLD, AER, AKH and HOU probably haven't seen their highest prices yet.

The one big caveat is that AKH and HOU will go offline for redemption in November. However, full sets of AER and KLD haven't been redeemable since the spring, and that hasn't stopped them from reaching new all-time highs. Redemption is probably a bigger factor on the price floor side of things rather than the price ceiling.

Modern

The rotated Standard sets all saw price increases this week, so at this point it's clear the bottom has been made on these. However, on the paper side of things, TCGplayer mid prices are still falling. Once paper prices stabilize, the path forward to higher prices on the digital side will be clear. I heavily invested in these in the Market Report portfolio, and I am happy with the positions I've taken complete sets of Battle for Zendikar (BFZ), Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW), Shadows over Innistrad (SOI), and Eldritch Moon (EMN).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, the Last Hope

The big advantage of this strategy is that you are investing in pool of value and you don't care about which cards are seeing play and which cards are out of favor. As long as the redemption process is in place, the pool of value will be maintained.

Otherwise, the switch from tix-only release events to removing release events altogether has meant a much more stable value on tix and thus prices in general. There is no longer a large liquidity crunch with the release of each set. Still, there are players that sell off their Modern singles in order to buy the newest cards, so there are some price dips observed in recent weeks. One example of this is the sudden drop in Scapeshift over the past few weeks. Have a look at the chart below, reproduced from the Goatbots website. This one looks poised to get back to 30 tix sometime over the next six months. I've been a buyer this week.

Another card that has seen a big drop in the past week is Mox Opal. Although this card is not a steal at current prices, it's been in a steady uptrend for months, so players who have been itching to sleeve up Affinity or Lantern Control should consider buying their playsets now. With no reprint on the horizon, a return to the 60-plus tix level seems inevitable. The below chart was also reproduced from Goatbots website.

In general, it's a good time for speculators to be buyers of select cards in Modern, but care needs to be taken in choosing which cards to purchase. Recent price dips are a good start, but be sure that the card you are targeting is not being reprinted in Iconic Masters (ICM). Primeval Titan, Thoughtseize and Horizon Canopy should be crossed off the list for the time being. The return of triple Innistrad (ISD) at the end of the month also means to steer clear of Liliana of the Veil, Snapcaster Mage and Geist of Saint Traft.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. With The Scarab God touching 40 tix this week, I have completely sold off all of my singles of this card. I was selling into the buying strength all week, catching higher and higher prices, which just goes to show you how difficult it is to perfectly time the market. Still, I'd rather be able to sell at a good price than to try to get the perfect price and have difficulty unloading the position into a rapidly changing market.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nicol Bolas, God-Pharaoh

I've still got a number of copies of The Scarab God tied up in my complete sets of HOU, but I'll be holding onto these for at least a few more weeks. If there was another price jump and this card got into the 50 tix range, I'd be very tempted to sell these copies too.

 

 

Empire State of Mind: Remembering the Fun of Magic

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Sometimes you don’t know what you need until it’s given to you. No, that’s not a 2017 Cinderella cover or anything, it’s just simple truth. Whether it’s a breath mint from a helpful friend or a simple check-yourself-before-you-wreck-yourself, this age-old adage repeats. As Magic players, we experience this phenomenon all too often, whether we notice it or not. A loyal buddy gently advises you against playing Seismic Assault. A kind opponent instructs your RG Breach deck in the lesson of Mana Leak. No, I get it, buddy, you drew too many lands. Sure.

Last week, through a series of complicated events, I found myself 600 miles away from home, in Tampa, Florida, playing Standard. Dramatic pause for inserted scream track. Don’t worry, this isn’t a Standard tournament report, but in a more real sense it is entirely a report on the experience of jumping headfirst into an environment you are wholly unprepared for. You look confused, so I’ll speak plainly. Today, I’ll be giving an account of what it’s like to play Magic free from the shackles of analytical burden, as what some in the business refer to a "filthy casual." Then, I’ll take this experience and attempt to stuff it inside a Modern deck you can play and win with. You know, without feeling like the world is against you and life isn’t fair because Sun Titan isn’t good in Modern.

I had no intentions of playing. I was along for the weekend with my dad, getting away for a couple days to travel down and watch the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the New York Giants at home (which we did, thank you very much). We had some free time on Friday and decided to hop in on FNM, him piloting some Grixis monstrosity, while I searched desperately for Star Wars: Destiny pickup games. I got stood up by someone that said they were interested and would meet me there, so I pushed past bad memories of high school and begrudgingly accepted a half completed UW Reanimator deck.

“Hold on, half of those cards have rotated.”

A More Casual Foray

Wondering where my evening had gone, I sat down against my first opponent with some Sacred Cats and a one-of Opt as recent additions to the maindeck, because, you know, one-drops. Keep in mind I haven’t played Standard since Jace, Vryn's Prodigy was new, and you can probably tell where this is going. All the dual lands in my deck were Chinese, but that’s okay because I only had like two or three anyways. You can see I wasn’t exactly being set up for success here.

For someone like me, obsessed with context, infatuated with the need for perfect information and the desire to "take the best line," getting handed a thrown-together deck and a hasty “good luck kid” as I’m kicked out the door feels something like getting dumped into a bucket of boiling tears, except the tears are made of acid and its slightly humid outside.

This is a love story though, or at least a romantic comedy, so the good guy wins in the end. I went 3-1, knowing nothing about the format, what my opponent was doing, or even what I was doing. “My card gets God Pharaoh's Gift but I don’t know what that does—hopefully it helps me here…” I faced my dad in the last round and scooped him into Top 8, where he got to Top 4, split, and took home 22 packs. As an aside, calm down with the five rounds plus Top 8, CoolStuff Games. This isn’t SCG Tampa here.

I say all that to say this: there is value in not knowing everything about the format. In my state of blissful ignorance, I wasn’t playing around counterspells because I didn’t know what counterspells to play around, or if there even were any worth playing in Standard. I had Hope of Ghirapur but didn’t know what I was Hoping for—a miracle I guess. No, wrong plane. Sweepers had to be a thing, because I looked around and others were playing creatures, so it made sense, but I didn’t know what colors they were, where they were costed, or who was playing them.

As a result, I made horrible plays all day long. I didn’t respect the Supreme Will, because I didn’t know what Supreme Will did. That Hope of Ghirapur was an Aven Skirmisher for my purposes, which apparently is just fine when he can swing for six turns. I was a bumbling idiot, and for the first time in a long time, I had a blast playing paper Magic.

See, I’ve been on the other side. I was the competitive grinder that consistently placed in the top ranks at FNM, because in reality I didn’t belong there but I wasn’t about that #grindlife. Anything other than a victory was a bad day in my eyes. If you ain’t first, you’re last. I remember round-one nightmares, being down a game against Mr. Casual and his Bogles deck, praying that I wouldn’t lose because I was better, I deserved it, I wanted it more. I remember winning, getting some packs, and being disappointed that I had "wasted" my Friday because I didn’t pull anything of value.

Fast-forward two years. I’m happily apologizing in advance to my first round opponent for not knowing any cards he’s about to play, and I catch that same look in his eyes. The look that was in my eyes countless times. “Please God, don’t let me lose to this n00b.”

There’s a peace in knowing that you can’t know keep track of what every card on the board does, an affliction that plagues me and prevents me from playing Munchkin to this day. There’s a peace in realizing that you are woefully unprepared, and that’s okay, because you are playing bad cards that your opponent who plays every week doesn’t know (so we’re kind of even, but not really). There’s a peace in playing the game to take pleasure in the little things, like playing two Regal Caracal’s and swinging in with armies of cats, pumping that embalmed Sacred Cat we chumped with earlier into a 3/3 because value. There’s a peace in not remembering the names of all these cards and having to go through Gatherer to figure out what they are, because not only do I not remember, but MTGGoldfish apparently deems them fringe, as who plays Regal Caracal?

For someone whose Magic career has gone through shifts, but who has almost always been focused on competition, maximizing my performance, and being the best I can be, there’s a peace in playing for the love of the game.

Building Solar Flare for 2017

I just want value. I want to do fun things while at the same time trying to stay alive—not so I can win, but so I can do more fun things. I want moments. I want to see mountains, Gandalf—mountains—and then find somewhere quiet where I can finish my book.

Solar Flare, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
2 Snapcaster Mage
4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Artifacts

1 Crucible of Worlds

Instants

3 Thought Scour
1 Think Twice
1 Forbidden Alchemy
3 Gifts Ungiven
2 Cryptic Command
1 Mystical Teachings
3 Fatal Push
1 Path to Exile

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

1 Collective Brutality
3 Lingering Souls
2 Thoughtseize
1 Inquisition of Kozilek
1 Supreme Verdict
1 Damnation
1 Unburial Rites

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
4 Marsh Flats
1 Flooded Strand
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Godless Shrine
2 Watery Grave
1 Darkslick Shores
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
2 Island
1 Swamp
1 Plains
3 Ghost Quarter
1 Creeping Tar Pit

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence
2 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Leyline of the Void
1 Wrath of God
1 Timely Reinforcements
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Geist of Saint Traft
2 Negate
1 Jace, Architect of Thought

What is the difference between Esper Gifts and Solar Flare? Depends on who you ask. Answer probably involves the question, "Do you want to win?" We’ve established that I don’t.

I’m not interested in the likely fact that Serum Visions is probably better. I’m tired of casting that card. I’m tired of my opponent resting his head on his knuckles while I agonize over my scry decisions like the blue player that I am. I much prefer playing Thought Scour. No format knowledge necessary, mill me every time, get our value and move on. Trimming a Thought Scour to play one Think Twice because we were out of space in the list? Sure! While we’re at it, lets add a Forbidden Alchemy in there too. Mini Mystical Teachings, you say? Gotta add, big daddy.

I don’t want to Goryo's Vengeance Obzedat, Ghost Council on turn two. That’s too competitive. I want to extract all the possible value I can from as many one-of instants and sorceries as possible, all the while giving myself as many targets for my flipped Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. I want to cackle evilly and twiddle my fingers as my opponent dejectedly says, "go," and I marvel at the millions of options before me. I want to have seven cards in hand at all times, and access to every single card in my graveyard. I want there to be no distinction between land, creature, and spell, all merely food for the engine.

There’s a peace in not worrying for once about the metagame, about covering our bases, about maximizing our sideboard slots. There’s a peace in just playing a combination of our favorite cards, and if it doesn’t work, it doesn’t work. There’s a peace in knowing that we are probably marching to our deaths, but by God we’ll do it happily like the blind idiots we are.

“His old life lay behind in the mists, dark adventure lay in front.”

Thanks for reading,

Trevor Holmes

Insider: QS Cast #79: Vendor Series- Cardhoarder Part 3

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The QS Cast returns! Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Vendor Series - Nathaniel, Owner/CEO of Cardhoarder re-joins the cast!
  • Discussing the current landscape of MTGO
  • Why Isle of Cards was shut down - Nathaniel's overall experience with paper Magic.
  • Magic Arena, Meta perspective of MTG and growth - how it will effect MTGO, and the future of Digital Magic

 

Enjoy!

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG @the_tark @cardhoarder

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Insider: Speculating Ixalan Standard Cards

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Hello, everyone.

Ixalan is already legal on Magic Online. This week I'm going to talk about some of my picks from the new set.

Let's first look at some of the two-sided cards.

Growing Rites of Itlimoc 's flipped side is basically Gaea's Cradle. The only difference between this card and Cradle is that the controller need to put some effort into developing the board in order to transform it into the side with the Gaea's Cradle effect. Obviously, Growing Rites is way slower, but I still think it will see play in some kind of Elves deck in Modern. Usually the Elves deck will dump half its hand onto the battlefield on any given turn, so the effect of finding a creature while filtering out unwanted draws is pretty decent in this type of deck. At its current price, Growing Rites of Itlimoc is probably worth investing in.

  • Growing Rites of Itlimoc: Current Buy Price: 2.05; Target Sell Price: 8; Profit Per Copy: 5.95

Treasure Map is an interesting card which is probably going to fit into slow control or ramp decks. In the early game, its controller can leave up mana for counterspells or removal, then activate the Map if there is leftover mana. When this card is flipped, its controller has access to three extra mana or three cards, depending on the situation. I think this card is resilient and a good card to build around. If this card stays below 2.5 tickets, I think its worth picking up a few playsets for investment.

  • Treasure Map: Current Buy Price: 2.35; Target Sell Price: 4; Profit Per Copy: 1.65

This card is very similar to Outpost Siege. These Blasting Cannons are currently played in the RG Dinosaurs sideboard, but I think it will see play in more decks in the near future, probably the Ramunap Red decks and any kind of midrange/control decks that plays Red. The card is competing for a spot with Chandra, Torch of Defiance in red decks, but I think this enchantment can be better than Chandra in some situations, as its harder to remove than a planeswalker. Furthermore, the flipped side of the card is able to provide some flooding insurance in the mid- to late-game similar to Ramunap Ruins. Right now, this card is only about 1 ticket. Personally I think this card has a lot of potential in it and is worth buying as for speculation purposes.

  • Vance's Blasting Cannons: Current Buy Price: 1.05; Target Sell Price: 4; Profit Per Copy: 2.95

Search for Azcanta is already a four-of card in Blue-White Approach. The deck plays zero copies of Torrential Gearhulk and focuses fully in finding and casting Approach of the Second Sun. With Search for Azcanta, the deck is able to achieve its goal very fast. Do bear in mind that this is a legendary card, but you can have one of each side in play. The trick here is exploiting the "may" trigger on the enchantment side of this card, not flipping the second copy and continuing to scry every turn. I think this card will still go up in price if the blue-white deck becomes more popular. The price is already near 7 tickets, so there surely is some risk to investing in this card. I suggest putting this card on your watch list for now, just in case.

  • Search for Azcanta: Target Buy Price: Below 5; Target Sell Price: 10; Profit Per Copy: 7

Alright, I've talked about the double-sided cards. Now let's look at some other picks from Ixalan set.

This, is definitely not Rest in Peace, but there isn't much graveyard hate against decks like God Pharaoh's Gift and abilities like aftermath and eternalize. I think at some point in the future this will be a good sideboard option. Its current price of 0.1 tickets is very cheap, so I suggest buying some for speculative purposes. Last week, I discussed using leftover credits with bots to buy cheap cards like Harnessed Lightning, and now intend to apply the same method to get plenty of Ashes of the Abhorrent.

  • Ashes of the Abhorrent: Current Buy Price: 0.10; Target Sell Price: 3; Profit Per Copy: 2.90

An instant-speed board wipe is just what blue-white control decks wanted. Being at 4 CMC, this card is able to hold back opponent's attackers while representing Glimmer of Genius and/or counterspell mana. Giving the opponent a basic land for each creature exiled is not horrible in the current Standard format, mainly because the blue-white decks win through Approach of the Second Sun. Currently, this card is at about 5 tickets, which is a bit too high. However, if this card does drop to 2 or 3 tickets, you can consider picking some up.

  • Settle the Wreckage: Target Buy Price: Below 3; Target Sell Price: 6; Profit Per Copy: 3

Captain Lannery Storm is a curve-filler for ramp decks or midrange decks that want to get to their big spells faster. I can see this card being played in some red-black decks. Technically, you could use the treasure to cast one-mana removal like Fatal Push or Shock the turn Captain Storm resolves, with the perk of an extra damage through its triggered ability. I mean, this card is not as good as Goblin Rabblemaster, but at 0.28 ticket, this card is probably worth giving a look.

  • Captain Lannery Storm: Current Buy Price: 0.3; Target Sell Price: 2; Profit Per Copy: 1.7

Dreamcaller Siren, in my opinion, is a very underrated card. Any blue pirates deck should play this card – the only reason to play blue in an aggro deck, after all, is to tempo the opponent out. I can also see this being played as a one- or two-of in control decks to pressure the opponent's life total. Four mana for a 3/3 flash flyer at only 0.35 ticket? I think I will get some before the price goes up.

  • Dreamcaller Siren: Current Buy Price: 0.35; Target Sell Price: 2; Profit Per Copy: 1.65

Every time we have similar effects to what is on this card, we compare it with Dark Confidant. Ruin Raider is obviously way weaker than Confidant, but in Standard, this kind of effect is what an aggro deck needs to make sure it has enough gas to close out the game. I suggest getting this card when it drops a bit from the current price because although I think it's good, you can probably get it at a lower price later when more drafters have sold their cards to bots. This pick is focused more on identifying a future buy price. I think it's a good buy if you can get it cheaper, so put it on your watch list and keep an eye out the next few days.

  • Ruin Raider: Target Buy Price: 0.2

The last pick this week is Sword-Point Diplomacy. This card is similar to Read the Bones and Painful Truths, except that it gives your opponent the choice. Normally, we don't like to give the opponent the chance to decide how good our spells can be, but this one seems interesting to fit into an aggressive deck. This is another one that I'm going to use a lot of the Harnessed Lightning method that I mentioned last week and above – shall we call them Harnessed Lightning Picks in future articles?

  • Sword-Point Diplomacy: Current Buy Price: 0.01; Target Sell Price: 1; Profit Per Copy: 0.99

Alright, guys, that's all for this week. Once again, thanks for reading and I'll see you all again next week!!

–Adrian, signing out.

Testing Preordain: Quantitative Results

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The time has (finally) come to actually reveal the results of my latest banlist test. Looking back, testing two different decks made this harder than it needed to be. Focusing just on Storm would have yielded more satisfying data, though not a more significant result. As you will see, it appears that Preordain would not have that much impact on the top-tier metagame for a variety of reasons. Some of these I mentioned previously; a few will be explained here. However, this ultimately doesn't matter. Other developments since I began this test ensure that Preordain is never being unbanned.

What I'm going to do is reveal the aggregated result. My questions were, "Is Preordain safe for Modern?", and whether the overall data show if this is true. I'll then break it down by deck and matchup to show how that result was achieved. What you'll see is that Preordain did not significantly impact deck performance for either Storm or UW Control. This suggests that an unban is plausible. However, as I will get to later on, this result will not change Wizards's stance, and I don't anticipate playing Preordain in Modern in the foreseeable future.

Overall Result

I feel the need to start with this disclaimer: this is not a definitive result. The results I'm reporting are my experimental results and are meant to model the impact of unbanning Preordain on the Modern metagame. It would take many more tests with more decks to give a truly definitive result.

As a reminder, there were 640 total matches, or 320 with each deck. Play/draw alternated with each match regardless of result to ensure fairness and prevent bias. They were all typical matches---best of three with sideboarding. Please refer to the previous article for all the decklists.

  • Total Match Wins: 333
  • Total Win Percentage: 52%
  • Total Control Wins: 165
  • Control Win Percentage: 51.6%
  • Total Test Wins: 168
  • Test Win Percentage: 52.5%

As you can see, I didn't have very impressive results. I'll be going into why as I deal with each deck, but having Preordain didn't feel very special. It was very similar to Sleight of Hand in Storm, and was inconsistently good in UW. I think we all know what the statistical test will show, but I'm going to include it anyway for academic honesty.

Once again, I'm reporting the z-test result because I think more people are familiar with it. As the P-value is greater than 0.05, we accept the null hypothesis and there is statistically no variation between the results. From this we can infer that Preordain had no real impact on my test decks.

Storm Results

Storm was something of an odd test for me as it really didn't feel like an integral piece of the testing. What I mean is that the matches rarely came down to how I, as the Storm player, played. A few times a poor sequence hurt me, but for the most part the actual combo played itself. I know I wasn't playing it perfectly, but Gifts Ungiven provided enough forgiveness that I didn't need to. If that card resolves, you should always win. My losses were either caused by me mulliganing to death or my opponent's disruption preventing me from comboing in the first place.

A note on sideboarding: Storm cannot afford to exchange many cards without severely harming its odds of comboing. I remember years ago hearing that Jon Finkel never sideboarded at all with Storm if he could help it, and who am I to argue with Johnny Magic? As a result I boarded as little as possible.

Grixis Shadow

I was told that Shadow was a very hard matchup for Storm. They have lots of relevant disruption and a powerful clock, the classic anti-combo recipe. This proved to be true, though Shadow has a hard time actually sticking a clock I found. They don't have that many threats, so sometimes I was able to play the long game and come back from having my hand shredded.

  • Storm Control Wins: 15
  • Control Win Percentage: 46.9%
  • Storm Test Wins: 16
  • Test Win Percentage: 50%

With only a one-game difference between test and control, there is no chance that the result is statistically significant, which the analysis confirms.

P > 0.05, so accept the null hypothesis, there is no statistical variation in the data.

Sideboarding really didn't change the matchup. Grixis had a pretty good gameplan pre-board, and it was still great after siding. There wasn't much that Storm could do to change that other than go for Empty the Warrens more.

Storm's Sideboarding:

-1 Grapeshot

+1 Empty the Warrens

Grixis Shadow's Sideboarding:

-2 Lightning Bolt -2 Terminate -2 Kolaghan's Command -1 Snapcaster Mage

+1 Grafdigger's Cage +1 Nihil Spellbomb +1 Izzet Staticaster +2 Stubborn Denial +2 Collected Brutality

Eldrazi Tron

I thought this would be a worse matchup than it ended up being. Storm doesn't fail with just one piece of disruption, so a single Thought-Knot Seer is not that bad. E-Tron sometimes just fails to do anything relevant except make a single big threat. Chalice of the Void was ignorable on one and often the game ended before they could put it on two. But when that did happen, it was game over for me.

  • Storm Control Wins: 16
  • Control Win Percentage: 50%
  • Storm Test Wins: 16
  • Test Win Percentage: 50%

Absolutely no change. Again, I don't think the statistical analysis is necessary, but here it is anyway.

There's no statistical difference between the control and the test.

I suspect that sideboarding had a much larger impact on the matchup than expected. E-Tron brings in a lot of great ways to shut down Past in Flames, meaning you're forced to rely on Empty the Warrens, for which they have All is Dust and lots of creatures. Big Walking Ballistas were a nightmare, as was Wurmcoil Engine. We debated bringing in Shatterstorm for all the artifacts and ultimately decided against it. By the time you'd play it most games, you've already lost.

Storm Sideboarding:

-1 Grapeshot

+1 Empty the Warrens

E-Tron Sideboarding:

-4 Matter Reshaper -2 Karn Liberated -1 Endbringer

+2 Grafdigger's Cage +2 Relic of Progentius +2 Warping Wail +1 Wurmcoil Engine

Counters Company

Counters was a really swingy matchup. Play/draw really mattered because you're both combo decks and can kill on turn three. Game one was just a straight race, and Storm was more consistent. After boarding it got complicated. Counters has decent answers, and Storm does not, but it might just get locked out without Echoing Truth.

  • Storm Control Wins: 17
  • Control Win Percentage: 53.1%
  • Storm Test Wins: 18
  • Test Win Percentage: 56.3%

There's a theme with these results. See if you can spot it.

Again, little has changed. Preordain isn't important in a racing situation. It just ensured that you never fizzled, which is pretty rare anyway.

Since the goal was to win turn three, Storm didn't sideboard on the play. On the draw you had to be the control deck, relatively speaking, so there was sideboarding then.

Storm on the draw Sideboarding:

-1 Baral, Chief of Compliance -1 Pyretic Ritual -1 Desperate Ritual -3 Remand

+3 Lightning Bolt +1 Echoing Truth +1 Anger of the Gods +1 Pyroclasm

Counters Company Sideboarding:

-1 Qasali Pridemage -1 Kitchen Finks

+1 Eidolon of Rhetoric +1 Orzhov Pontiff

Burn

I thought Burn would be a better matchup than it actually was. I didn't appreciate how good Searing Blaze actually was against Storm. You're reliant on your cost reducers to go off, and Blaze kills them efficiently. Burn also reliably goldfishes turn four and can turn three you if your mana cooperates, so they can race you. Also, Eidolon of the Great Revel is lights out. The only way to win with that on the field is to Empty the Warrens. And you're probably dead anyway. We always played game one as if we didn't know what we were playing, but for games two and three my Burn pilot aggressively mulliganed for Eidolon.

  • Storm Control Wins: 19
  • Control Win Percentage: 59.4%
  • Storm Test Wins: 17
  • Test Win Percentage: 53.1%

Not a big change again. I believe the difference was the Burn's aggressive mulligans paid off a few more times against the test deck.

Again, not a significant result. Well within the "noise" of the test. I actually expected this. With a smaller n-value you need really disparate results to achieve statistical significance.

Sideboarding for Storm was hard here. You needed to remove Eidolon and couldn't rely on Empty. In exploratory testing I found that you could Empty for a lot and still die so we decided to stick to the Grapeshot kill as much as possible. On the draw we decided to add more counters.

Storm Sideboarding:

-1 Desperate Ritual -1 Pyretic Ritual -1 Baral, Chief of Compliance

+3 Lightning Bolt

Additionally On the Draw:

-1 Empty the Warrens -1 Gifts Ungiven

+2 Dispel

For Burn we took out the clunkiest burn spell and Lavamancer for relevant disruption. We debated Kor Firewalker for a while and decided against it.

Burn Sideboarding:

-1 Grim Lavamancer -3 Rift Bolt

+4 Relic of Progenitus

Jeskai Control

Jeskai was another swingy matchup, mostly because their clock was what really mattered. Given the time, I would just sculpt to my heart's content and win through their permission. The fact that this version didn't have Geist of Saint Traft helped on that front, but Spell Queller was also a beating combined with all their burn.

  • Storm Control Wins: 14
  • Control Win Percentage: 43.8%
  • Storm Test Wins: 15
  • Test Win Percentage: 46.9%

With a different sideboard on Jeskai's side I can see this matchup becoming much worse.

It's very significant how not significant these results are. I really am running out of things to say here; it's only going to get worse for UW.

For sideboarding we adjusted the counter suite for Storm while Jeskai really had the opportunity to adapt. The Empty plan is meant for disruption-heavy decks, but it really hates it when you prepare and have sweepers.

Storm Sideboarding:

-1 Grapeshot -1 Remand -1 Baral, Chief of Compliance

+1 Empty the Warrens +2 Dispel

Jeskai Sideboarding:

-4 Path to Exile -1 Lightning Helix -2 Electrolyze

+2 Negate +3 Rest in Peace +2 Supreme Verdict

Storm Conclusions

Preordain did not excel in Storm. It was simply too like Sleight of Hand, which it replaced, to have any significant effect. Where it was better was post-sideboard when you were digging for pieces and seeing only junk, but that didn't happen too often. Most games I cantripped a few times then attempted to go off. Even against Jeskai the games didn't tend to go very long. The opponent's disruption and clock mattered more than the power of my cantrips. Therefore, I have no evidence here that Preordain would change anything for Storm.

UW Control Results

Testing UW was far harder. A control deck has more decisions and takes longer to finish a game, which is why this took so long, but it also required more of a play adjustment between the control and test decks. Serum Visions and Preordain are better at different things and expecting one to do the other's job was disastrous in exploratory testing. As a result I had a harder time with the deck.

Grixis Shadow

UW has a pretty good matchup thanks to its redundancy. You can't really stop their first few turns, so they will shred you, but you are likely to recover and draw more powerful cards as the game goes on. As long as you don't just die to beefsticks you've got a great shot at out-valuing them.

  • UW Control Wins: 19
  • Control Win Percentage: 59.4%
  • UW Test Wins: 17
  • Test Win Percentage: 53.1%

You know by now where this is going.

We didn't sideboard very much, both decks are close to where you want them maindeck. The adjustments were based on the assumption the games would go longer.

UW Sideboarding:

-1 Vendilion Clique -1 Spell Snare

+2 Rest in Peace

Grixis Shadow Sideboarding:

-2 Lightning Bolt -2 Terminate -1 Fatal Push

+2 Stubborn Denial +1 Liliana the Last Hope +2 Collective Brutality

Eldrazi Tron

Eldrazi was a weird matchup. Their deck is fairly inconsistent, and when I could use Spreading Seas to capitalize on that, it was easy. Against their good hands and/or Cavern of Souls, it got much harder. Playing only unconditional removal was very good as well. However, sometimes Eldrazi is just Eldrazi, and Chalice can prove backbreaking.

  • UW Control Wins: 15
  • Control Win Percentage: 46.9%
  • UW Test Wins: 16
  • Test Win Percentage: 50%

There's not much to say really, it was just a slugfest.

UW is almost pre-sideboarded against Etron. I wished it wasn't, as I would have liked more Detention Spheres for Chalices, but that wasn't an option. I debated Spell Queller but it didn't perform in exploratory.

UW Sideboarding:

-1 Spell Snare

+1 Supreme Verdict

Etron Sideboarding:

-2 Dismember -2 All is Dust

+2 Hangerback Walker +2 Relic of Progenitus

Counters Company

This was a weird matchup. Sometimes Company went for the long-game; sometimes it was just jamming the combo. UW never felt safe and it was a really stressful test.

  • UW Control Wins: 17
  • Control Win Percentage: 53.1%
  • UW Test Wins: 15
  • Test Win Percentage: 46.9%

Collected Company is a hell of a card.

I decided to target the Company value plan with my sideboarding, since that was their best card and I didn't really have more ways to interact with the combo. Spreading Seas is not effective against mana dorks.

Company went for sweeper insurance.

UW Sideboarding:

-4 Spreading Seas -1 Mana Leak -1 Logic Knot

+3 Rest in Peace +2 Dispel +1 Supreme Verdict

Counters Company Sideboarding:

-1 Fiend Hunter -1 Vizier of Remedies -1 Devoted Druid -1 Qasali Pridemage

+3 Voice of Resurgence +1 Selfless Spirit

Burn

This went worse for UW than I thought it would. It plays less lifegain and fewer counterspells so it can be a struggle.

  • UW Control Wins: 17
  • Control Win Percentage: 53.1%
  • UW Test Wins: 18
  • Test Win Percentage: 56.3%

I know the percentage jumps look big but that's just a quirk of small n samples.

Sideboarding is what you'd expect: dead cards out, counters in. The Quellers were pretty good here as both disruption and a clock. You can't wait forever against Burn. Spreading Seas is too tempo-negative to play early, and late, it's not relevant disruption.

UW Sideboarding:

-4 Spreading Seas -3 Supreme Verdict -2 Jace, Architect of Thought

+4 Spell Queller +2 Dispel +2 Timely Reinforcements +1 Negate

Burn Sideboarding:

-4 Searing Blaze

+4 Relic of Progenitus

Jeskai Control

We played this matchup as a control deck against a midrange deck. Neither I nor my Jeskai pilot were sure that's correct, but nothing else made sense at the time. It was weird because most of their cards aren't good but can still kill you if unopposed. Blessed Alliance was shockingly good as a result.

  • UW Control Wins: 16
  • Control Win Percentage: 50%
  • UW Test Wins: 20
  • Test Win Percentage: 62.5%

This matchup was the closest to actually significant results I got. I think if I had done the usual 50 it would have been significant for reasons I'll describe below.

Sideboarding in control mirrors is hard. I decided that his Snapcasters were better than mine and that I wanted to fight on his turn to resolve planeswalkers. I also didn't want to just lose to burn.

UW Sideboarding:

-4 Spreading Seas -3 Supreme Verdict -2 Condemn -1 Blessed Alliance

+4 Spell Queller +3 Rest in Peace +2 Dispel +1 Timely Reinforcements

Jeskai Sideboarding:

-2 Lightning Helix

+2 Negate

UW Conclusions

The Jeskai test revealed why my results didn't change much from control to test. Preordain is a mid-game card, and Serum Visions is an early-game card. What I mean is that during mid-game topdeck wars, Preordain is better, because you can find and cast the card you want right way. Visions gets you deeper, but you get a random card. This is great in the early game where you want to hit land drops and set up your turns. When games end quickly, Preordain doesn't get the chance to shine.

Preordain's Place

Based on my results and experience playing the card, I do not believe that Preordain is unequivocally better than Serum Visions. During the first few turns, the smoothing power of Visions is far superior, and if you want a card to set you up for the long game, you would always choose that card. However, when you need to find something right now, Preordain will be your go-to. As a result, I don't believe that they necessarily fight for space, nor would you always play sets of both. A mix is more likely. With this in mind and my lack of significant results, I believe that Preordain could be unbanned.

Some Caveats

I wasn't testing decks that overload on cantrips. This was a deliberate decision to keep this as scientific as possible. If I start wildly redesigning decks, then the test becomes more about my deckbuilding ability than the actual strength of the cards. As I've said from the beginning, it's better to use an established list and see how the card boosts its power. So I didn't play 12-cantrip Storm or Serum Visions and Preordain in UW Control.

In Storm, I'm certain this was fine. I've played heavy cantrip Storm in Modern before, and the Gifts version feels better. Having a way to search for mana and Past in Flames was very good, and I can't fathom cutting that package. Players have argued that I should just cut the utility spells for extra cantrips, but I'm skeptical. As noted, Chalice and Eidolon win the game against you, and having a few ways to answer them is necessary. The cantrips are still weaker than Legacy's; a single Echoing Truth is not going to cut it.

As for UW, I'm not certain. Finding the room for cantrips requires cutting real cards. Modern is faster than Legacy, so you can't really durdle or fill your deck with air, especially as a control deck. Miracles got away with that thanks to Counterbalance. Maybe it would be correct, but I'm uncertain. In any case, trying to find out adds more variables and is therefore untestable at this time.

It Was All for Opt

The problem is that nothing I've just said really matters. This has nothing to do with its value or the process, but with Magic moving on while I've been working. See, Opt has effectively killed Preordain's chance to be unbanned. The first reason is similarity. Opt is Preordain, adapted for instant speed. The effect is weaker, but it gains speed. Standard Wizards balancing strategy. Yes, I know Opt came first, but it wasn't appreciated in its time. If you have to nitpick, just flip my statement around; it's still true.

This feeds into the other problem. Wizards has previously said that too many cantrips is a problem. They're worried both about consistent combo and overly consistent control (à la Caw Blade). They're fine with a few weaker cantrips, but add some more power and things get risky. As a result, I think Opt is a definitive statement to the Modern crowd that the cantrips won't be unbanned. Wizards will not risk cantrips killing variance again.

In the end, that's my conclusion. Preordain is not necessarily better than Serum Visions, and would be a worthwhile risk to unban. This will not happen because Opt subsumes Preordain's theoretical place.

See you next week for the results of fitting Ixalan into Merfolk.

Insider: Using Magic Online to Predict the Future of Ixalan Standard

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Magic Online can be an excellent barometer of what’s going on in a metagame, and this information can be used to make good decisions about the paper market. Ixalan was released online this past Monday, and it’s already legal for Constructed play, which means the post-rotation metagame is already developing. There are decklists available, so it’s possible to see what new cards are being used and what older cards have become more important. Taking a look at how many trophies players with new decks have earned in their leagues provides some further insight into what’s on top. There has also been plenty of price movement on various Standard cards, and the cards in high demand online could predict paper movements once the paper metagame catches up.

The biggest news in the metagame is the arrival of Dinosaurs, which looks like a very real deck given that multiple players have scored 5-0 finishes with Red/Green builds. These decks play all the cards one would expect, but it’s notable that all the decklists include a playset of Deathgorge Scavenger. With its potential for repeatable lifegain, the card looks excellent against a Mono-Red heavy metagame and is likely to be a staple of all Dinosaur decks going forward, so its price has a lot of potential. Its online price has has risen from under a ticket to nearly three since release, with most of that gain in the last day, and is on a trajectory to an even higher price. Paper copies at $2 are beginning to look like a bargain.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Deathgorge Scavenger

Dinosaur decks are including Vance's Blasting Cannons in the sideboard, and it’s appeared in the sideboards of both Temur Energy decks and Mono-Red aggro decks since rotation. Being included in three of the very best decks in the metagame could mean high demand, so its price under $3 could rise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Vance's Blasting Cannons

White-Blue Approach of the Second Sun decks were expected to be a part of the Ixalan metagame because they held up very well through rotation, and early results show that with a new tool in Settle the Wreckage the deck is positioned to excel. One player with a 5-0 White-Blue list has three league 5-0 trophies, tied for the most, and likely all with the same deck. Settle the Wreckage has moved up to over 3 tix online, and at $2.50 the paper price looks low if the deck catches on with a wider audience.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Settle the Wreckage

Another card relevant to Approach of the Second Sun decks is Hour of Revelation, which has been included in a 5-0 decklist. It’s a powerful sweeper that will shine in a midrange format against decks like Dinosaurs and Black-Green that play a mix of creatures, planeswalkers, and other problem permanents, and at under $1 it has to rise if it catches on with more White-Blue players.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hour of Revelation

Tezzeret the Schemer fell to under $3, but renewed interest has cause a spike that doubled it to $6, and I can see more upside. There is renewed interest in the card due to its synergy with Treasure tokens, which also work well with Improvise. The card is being used in Grixis Improvise decks, and if the deck proves it’s top-tier then we’ll see its pieces rise.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tezzeret the Schemer

Another component of the deck to consider is Herald of Anguish, which is pushing $4 and its all-time high, while the paper price has sagged to an all-time low of just $2.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Herald of Anguish

The best mechanic in Standard is still energy, and it’s one of the top performers in the early days of the online metagame. Temur Energy is still the most popular energy deck, but players are also using Electrostatic Pummeler variants. With the banning of Aetherworks Marvel, the energy sink is now the most broken energy card in Standard, so it makes sense that it might be part of one of the best decks in Standard. There are the usual Red-Green versions full of pump spells and an aggressive slant, but there’s also a new Green-Blue version that is more combo oriented. Trophy Mage is used to find Electrostatic Pummeler, and the new Dive Down gives the blue version a new way to protect it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Electrostatic Pummeler

At just over half a dollar Electrostatic Pummeler would see a rise if the deck truly becomes top-tier, but another possible spec is Nissa, Steward of Elements, another way for the deck to find its combo piece that is being used as a two-of, and is at an all-time low of $6.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Steward of Elements

A key card for all energy decks is Bristling Hydra, so its hard for me to understand that the paper price is just $2. Its price has been slowly and steadily rising for months, and I see this pace accelerating.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aethersphere Harvester

Aethersphere Harvester has seen a spike online that brought its price from 2 tix to 5 over the course of the week, and its paper price under $2 could follow behind it because the artifact is applicable to every creature deck and is fantastic against the top Mono-Red deck.

–Adam

Insider: A Rare Window of Opportunity

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After all the crazy Reserved List hype and speculation, the market is slowly reaching a new equilibrium far above where it once was. I hope many QS Insiders enjoyed the explosion in interest—it has certainly been a wild ride.

Now that the hype train has left the station, we are suddenly looking at some strange pricing trends. Cards that were once considered near-bulk have suddenly become worth something. This has led to some strange disconnects in card valuations. If you think about relative values, there’s no way a card that sees a bunch of play across multiple formats should be worth only marginally more than some random Reserved List card with spotty Old School play and not much else.

Yet these imbalances have popped up in a number of places. I’m especially intrigued by how attainable Power and dual lands have become in light of these rampant buyouts. What once could have required trading your entire collection to obtain has now become easy to trade for.

For example, consider what happened to Drop of Honey’s relative value. If you had just two copies of that card, you could trade those in and pick up a played piece of Power. Most players wouldn’t be interested in such a trade, but major vendors offer so much on their buylist for Drop of Honey that you can get enough store credit to pick up a played piece of Power. This would have been a laughable proposition just a few short months ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drop of Honey

What does this mean for your portfolio? What should we be doing about these perceived imbalances in pricing? This week Sig shares some thoughts on what he expects will happen and how you can make some moves now if you are so inclined.

Crazy Buylists

Anyone who denies the validity of the Reserved List hype needs to review Card Kingdom’s buylist. If they still refused to accept the merits of the recent market movements, then they are in denial. I mean, just look at some of these numbers:

  • $140 for Invoke Prejudice
  • $130 for All Hallow's Eve
  • $120 for Living Plane
  • $100 for Mirror Universe
  • $63 for In the Eye of Chaos
  • $48 for Sword of the Ages (this used to be $10!)
  • $490 for Juzám Djinn
  • $155 for Shahrazad
  • $185 for Guardian Beast
  • $150 for Serendib Efreet
  • $90 for Ali from Cairo
  • $105 for City in a Bottle

The list goes on and on. Then, add in all the little stuff that popped and carries double-digit buylist pricing where they were once worth just a couple bucks. This includes the likes of Falling Star, Colossus of Sardia, Golgothian Sylex, Lifeblood, etc.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lifeblood

I still don’t have a clue why Lifeblood’s price is sticking. I don’t think the card does anything relevant, but maybe that’s just me.

You didn’t need to own every single one of these cards to benefit from the recent moves. But if you had just a few, you are suddenly sitting on far more value than what you put into these pieces of cardboard. To me, this screams “opportunity.” You are faced with a key decision.

Hold Them or Fold Them?

I will admit this is not my area of strength because I have an emotional attachment to some of these older cards. Even though I’m quite profitable on many of them, I still cannot bring myself to cash out.

Don’t follow my lead. Instead, I encourage you to reconsider the priorities of your collection. For example, if you were in need of a Tropical Island for your EDH deck but you happened to have a copy of Ali from Cairo in your cube, you could now trade that Ali into ABU Games for $96 plus 50% trade credit and get almost all the way to that Trop. What may have costed you $40 a year ago is now worth two-thirds of a played Trop.

What’s even more laughable is what you can do with the lower-end stuff. If you had a playset of Junún Efreets that you bought for $20 total a year ago, you can now trade them into ABU Games for $112 in credit!

That’s enough for a dual land or perhaps some much needed pieces of your Modern deck. The choices are in front of you if you’re willing to consider them. And if ABU Games doesn’t have what you want, no need to worry—Star City Games pays $17.50 cash on this card and Card Kingdom pays $18.50. Everyone is buying these Arabian Nights cards aggressively.

The opportunities are certainly out there. But if you let emotions get in the way, you may fail to move on some of these cards near their local maxima. This alone isn’t the problem because these cards will continue to get rarer and rarer, so their long-term price trajectory is still upward and to the right. But you may be missing out on some key imbalances in the market—situations where random junk on the Reserved List is suddenly worth way more relative to highly sought-after cards, making for real opportunities to trade for cards you’ve always wanted.

It is this opportunity that I think is worth highlighting. Everyone knows they can sell into the hype—but what may be overlooked is the fact that there’s a narrow window of opportunity here to obtain the unobtainable. Because a Drop of Honey should not be worth the same as a Time Vault and a set of Serendib Efreets should not be worth the same as a Timetwister.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Serendib Efreet

Yet, vendors will be willing to make such trades (assuming they have these cards in stock). It is precisely this that I think is worth your consideration.

Some Examples

ABU Games has a played Mox Pearl in stock for $999.99. This seems fairly in line with what other vendors are charging for this particular piece of Power. Meanwhile, they’re offering $320.10 for a played Juzám Djinn. If you had two copies—cards that cost just $130 a couple years ago—you could trade them into ABU Games for $960.30 in store credit. A couple small throw-ins and you have yourself a Mox Pearl.

Personally, I’m holding out for a chance to get a played Black Lotus with my Juzám playset. I don’t think it’ll happen, but the fact that I can get close is already pretty amazing.

Not interested in Power? Let’s see if there are some duals out there worth picking up. I see Card Kingdom has EX Underground Seas for around $400. That price point doesn’t thrill me in a vacuum because with cash these can be purchased for less. But when comparing with some trade-in prices I’m suddenly more intrigued.

The fact that two played Guardian Beasts can be traded for a nice Underground Sea is baffling to me. Two Shahrazads will also get you pretty close. And don’t even get me started on the fact that Drop of Honey is now worth more than the most expensive Revised dual land. That just seems wrong!

I’ll offer one more example. If you’re in the market for a Mishra's Workshop, but don’t want to spend the $800 required to buy a played copy with cash, you could consider trading cards to Star City Games. They have a couple played copies for $950—a little higher than TCGplayer’s low price, but also probably far better condition as well.

You could choose to trade in some of your Reserved List holdings to get one. They aren’t buying as aggressively as Card Kingdom, but they are still paying $15 for North Star, $80 for Erhnam Djinn and $50 for Ifh-Biff Efreet. These are all worth much more now than they were a year ago, and if you had a few you could slowly piece them together to get that Workshop…or at least to significantly reduce your cash outlay.

There was an error retrieving a chart for North Star

Looking Ahead

You could choose to ignore this entire article. I myself am so attached to my Old School cards that I will likely fail to trade up for high-end cards in the way I’ve described to you above. I’m okay with that. But before you decide you feel the same way, let me share a prediction I am making for the future.

Drop of Honey and Guardian Beast can’t be so easily traded in for Power and duals indefinitely. I think one of two scenarios is likely to play out.

First, it’s entirely possible that hype dies down and these Old School/Reserved List cards fade in price a bit. While the three-year outlook for these cards remains strong, pricing can go soft over the next three to six months. New sets will be released and hype will shift to other areas of the market, leaving these Reserved List cards in the background for a bit.

Alternatively, these cards may hold their new price plateaus, and people will exploit the trades I have outlined above. If that happens, we’ll see another move higher in Power and duals.

In fact, Power pricing may shift higher soon anyway—when I searched for Moxen, Time Walk, Timetwister and Ancestral Recall on the big vendor websites, I was shocked to see how little was out there. Most of the stock these vendors had was from Alpha or was Near Mint Unlimited. These markets are a little less liquid than played Unlimited, which explains why there was so little played Unlimited Power out there.

Regardless of which outcome unfolds, the window to trade these newly spiked Reserved List cards will eventually close. Either Power and duals will rise in price, or your Sword of the Ages-type cards will drop in price. This is my prediction, and it’s why I’m highlighting this rare opportunity to you now.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sword of the Ages

Wrapping It Up

Trades that were once ridiculous a year or two ago are now very realizable. What’s more, you don’t need to find a desperate GP floor trader to move recently spiked cards to pick up duals and Power. With buy prices where they are, some vendors will be more than happy make these trades with you. I’d wager that when you’re at a GP you may even have better opportunities because the sheer number of vendors available to trade with would be much higher…not to mention trading these older cards in person is much better because you can negotiate and discuss card conditions.

However I don’t think these new opportunities will be available forever. I suspect either hyped cards will drop down in price a bit, or the pricing of Power and duals will once again rise. Either way, you won’t be able to make such trades forever. The fact that you can trade two played Juzám Djinns for a Mox Pearl tells me the market is imbalanced and will need to adjust. Luckily these adjustments are a little slow—hence the opportunity!

Rather than sit on your newfound wealth, I’d encourage you to reconsider the priorities in your collection and make conscious choices to acquire what is most important. Yes, your Drop of Honey is worth a ton more now than it was six months ago. But if you bought a Drop of Honey for your Cube but you couldn’t afford that Timetwister, perhaps it’s time to trade up and acquire that Power. It should certainly be more attainable now than it was before.

I make this suggestion because I believe that if you don’t make these trades, someone else will. And while owning a $500 Drop of Honey may seem amazing, you could be getting that Mox you’ve always wanted now before it, too, surges higher in price.

You’ve been warned.

…

Sigbits

  • Have you seen the buyout of Raging River? Some copies have trickled back into stock since then, but Star City Games is completely sold out of all Alpha, Beta, and Unlimited. Currently they are charging $299.99, $99.99, and $39.99 respectively. All of these will have to adjust higher soon, and I suspect Beta and Unlimited copies will move the most.
  • I’m eagerly waiting to see where Talas Warrior’s price settles down now that it has been bought out. On the one hand, it’s not the most thrilling of cards to be sitting on and it’s not on the Reserved List. On the other hand, it’s a rare from Portal: Second Age and it’s a Pirate. So far the latter has outweighed the former, but I’m still waiting for Star City Games to adjust their pricing. They still show $2.99, which most assuredly will change given that Card Kingdom is offering near $4 on their buylist. If I had to guess, I’d say $9.99 is a solid stepping stone to test the waters on this one…if they can even get ahold of copies!
  • With their higher buy prices, Star City Games has finally restocked some Underground Seas. Given there will be Legacy played at a Pro Tour next year for the first time in ages, the new, higher prices are likely merited. Still, I see zero Unlimited copies in stock even at $799.99. Unlimited is just so much rarer than Revised, and I personally think the price still needs to be adjusted higher to reflect this discrepancy…and to restock copies!

Insider: Rotation Picks from BFZ and SOI

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Welcome back, readers!

It seems everyone is heavily focused on the new toys from Ixalan. That means it's a great time to pick up all the discarded toys that are rotating.

The challenge here is, of course, is to avoid the cards already propped up by eternal (Vintage/Legacy/Modern/Commander). Cards like Nahiri, the Harbinger, who saw minimal Standard play and whose current price is entirely dictated by Modern demand. These might see a small dip, but not likely enough to make any good profits on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nahiri, the Harbinger

No, what we want are the cards whose current value is heavily propped up by Standard, but which also have seen some eternal or casual success. These are the cards that will take the biggest hit from rotation, and then slowly gain over time.

As I have stated previously, I no longer view any card not on the Reserved List as a long-term hold—WoTC's decisions to keep making Masters sets with increasing regularity have me wary of holding anything for more than two years. But in that time frame these cards are a good candidate for gains.

So what are these gems from the current rotation?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

Our first card is one that has haunted Standard pretty much since Battle for Zendikar's inception. Gideon, AoZ has single-handedly pushed many other potential walkers out of the format due to its raw power level. It has also found a home in some Modern decks. The current price has crashed down to around $8-$9 (and I imagine if you offered any of your local Standard players $5-$6 they'd probably take it).

I think the floor on Gideon is almost reached (he could go a little lower). I do think that thanks to Battle for Zendikar having both the fetches and shocks as Expeditions, there are likely a ton more Gideons than there might have been; however, he wasn't featured in any duel decks so the only copies floating around are ones cracked from packs or redeemed from MTGO.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tireless Tracker

Tracker used to be the auto-include if you were playing green in Standard. It has built-in card advantage (as long as you can trigger his "landfall" ability) and has acceptable stats to begin with. Modern as a format doesn't have a ton of actual card advantage in it (heck, Legacy for the most part doesn't really either), and Tracker provides card advantage in a growing threat. Last but not least, it can get hit off of Collected Company.

This card has already plummeted to around $2.50-$3, and the floor is likely near. From past experience though, I've seen that these Standard cards tend to continue their downward trend for a little while after rotation before bottoming out, so I will likely check her price again in a month or so and look at acquiring her then.

There was an error retrieving a chart for World Breaker

World Breaker is a fantastic casual card that also happens to have a home in some Modern Tron lists. I have played with many Commander players who had a hard time beating a Torpor Orb because they relied so heavily on creatures with enters-the-battlefield abilities to get rid of artifacts and enchantments. World Breaker gets around this with an almost uncounterable ability (so he doesn't even have to resolve) and has a form of built-in recursion.

It also helps that he's a mythic from Oath of the Gatewatch, which had considerably less impressive Expeditions and was likely opened far less than Battle for Zendikar. I'm a big fan of the foil versions of this card as they are extremely rare (being a foil mythic and all) and can be picked up for under $7 which is only about a 2.5x multiplier versus the regular.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

"Newlamog" may have originally had his heyday in Standard being cheated in as early as turn four thanks to Aetherworks Marvel. But he's quickly dropped in price since his high of $30. Now "Newlamog" waffles in and out of Modern Eldrazi Tron lists (usually either a one-of or none-of). However, he's still a fantastic Commander card and there's plenty of demand from that crowd.

Currently one can purchase copies in the $9.50 range, and I imagine you can pick them up on eBay in the $8 range. I doubt he'll end up in any Masters set for at least another two years and I expect we'll see some decent growth on him.

Now, one could argue that his current price has been in a pretty steady but slow decline the past few months as players outed extra copies before he bottomed out with the upcoming rotation. The question is, how much of the current price is set by Standard demand? While I don't actually think it's a lot there is likely some, so I'm expecting a continual slow decline down to likely the $8.50-$9 range.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet

Kalitas has been in steady decline for a while, as the powerful BG counters decks slid down the tier chart of the Standard metagame. However, he is still an extremely powerful four-drop with a lot of relevant abilities.

Currently Modern Jund decks tend to favor Chandra, Torch of Defiance in the four-drop slot, however, Kaltias really shines when graveyard-centered decks are at the forefront of Modern. Any resurgence in Dredge would likely cause an uptick in Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet. His four toughness keeps him out of Bolt range and the lifelink can help a lot against aggro decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Relentless Dead

It seems like forever ago that Gerry T won the Pro Tour with Zombies and we saw this card skyrocket in price. However, the Zombie tribe is a popular casual tribe and Relentless Dead's power level has definitely been proven. This does seem like one of those mythics that will slowly decline to the $3-$4 range plateau for a bit, and then barring a reprint make its way back up to $10 simply off the back of casual demand.

I personally don't think Zombies is a strong enough tribe for Modern, however, in the future if WoTC did print a card (or cards) that made them viable in the format, I would imagine this card would end up in that deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Traverse the Ulvenwald

While this card definitely saw a good bit of demand while in Standard, it has found a home in Modern and it shows up in a lot of popular commanders like Tasigur, the Golden Fang, Meren of Clan Nel Toth, and Atraxa, Praetors' Voice. Copies can be had in the $1.50 range, whereas Worldly Tutor (which always tutors for a creature but puts it on top of your library) sits in the $10+ range.

I don't expect this discrepancy to last long, and I'm a fan of this card medium-term (as I don't see the delirium mechanic returning anytime soon). This is the type of card I like to stock up on at rotation as it was once a $5 card (when modern Jund Death's Shadow was big) and Commander players love tutors.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eldrazi Displacer

I saved my favorite target til last. Displacer has dropped all the way down to the $1.5-$2 range, but Modern and Commander are full of powerful creatures with ETB effects, so repeatable blink is extremely potent.

The fact that Displacer can be used to kill creatures like Hangarback Walker and Walking Ballista is another powerful interaction many forget. While it may not come up a ton, he can even be used to stop very large attacking creatures (they can't trigger Annihilator if their Emrakul is always tapped before the attack step).

This is one of the few targets I am personally targeting now (especially in trade).

Conclusion

There are a lot of fantastic cards with strong eternal possibilities rotating out of Standard. And with the new set releasing this week, now is a fantastic time to trade the over-priced cards for ones with a good medium-term potential. I know I'll be trading off any Carnage Tyrants I'm lucky enough to pull towards cards on this list.

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