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Insider: International Arbitrage Is Back

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For the longest time in Magic finance, only those with international connections and substantial bankrolls seemed to have access to arbitrage. The strategy remained a well-kept secret for quite some time. Then one day I wrote an article describing opportunities that anyone could exploit between the U.S. and Japan. I received a great deal of flack for “revealing” this great secret, but you know what? I am proud to have leveled the playing field by exposing what some had been leveraging for themselves.

Since that article went live a few years ago, many writers have banged the arbitrage drum. Some have even shared their specific pickups from Europe as a way to highlight the opportunity that still remains—even though the “secret” is out. Even today arbitrage between the U.S. and other countries is a steadfast approach to make profit in MTG finance.

In all honesty, I tapered off my arbitrage buying. I made some tremendous purchases in Japan when I realized their Alpha and Beta rares were priced below U.S. buylists. Perhaps the climax of this practice was my acquisition of a NM- Beta Wheel of Fortune.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wheel of Fortune

After that purchase and an article detailing the transaction, it seemed like the opportunities in these sets dried up. Now when I browse all Old School sets on Hareruya and Tokyo MTG websites, I find nothing but overpriced singles. Was this to be the end-all and be-all for my Japanese arbitrage?

The Reserved List Renaissance

Out of the blue, Reserved List cards have all shot up in price. Buyouts begot buyouts, leading to new, higher price plateaus across Magic’s first four expansions: Arabian Nights, Legends, Antiquities, and The Dark. The event sent ripples throughout the entire secondary market, influencing not only player-to-player transactions on sites like eBay and TCGplayer, but also driving changes at major retailers.

When all of this happened, I quickly realized Card Kingdom remained at the top of the heap when it came to offering competitive buy prices on Reserved List cards. Even now they boast some of the best buy prices in the industry, and I have repeatedly sold them some of the “less playable” Reserved List cards that I had trouble moving on eBay. Cards like Sandals of Abdallah and Knowledge Vault are prime candidates to ship Card Kingdom’s way when buying momentum peters out elsewhere.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sandals of Abdallah

Even some newer Reserved List cards were suddenly getting new attention and therefore higher buy prices. Chaosphere and Shimmer are both in Mirage—a set with a far higher print run than previous expansions—yet they suddenly attracted buyers and jumped in price. Card Kingdom adjusted their buy prices accordingly, and I took notice of this.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shimmer

As I repeatedly checked their buy prices, I noticed yet another trend that goes beyond just these first four expansions of Magic. It occurred to me that Card Kingdom had strangely high buy prices on newer Reserved List cards as well. We’re talking about random stuff from Mirage and Visions like Teeka's Dragon and Breathstealer's Crypt. Once again, even “unplayable” stuff could be sold to the vendor for far higher pricing than previously imagined.

The New Arbitrage Opportunity

Thus enters the new arbitrage opportunities I have uncovered. Some $0.50 to $1.50 Reserved List rares have very attractive buy prices on Card Kingdom’s and ABU Games’ website. Got a stack of Political Trickery? Card Kingdom will pay $0.80 for those! Catacomb Dragons galore in your collection? Ship them to Card Kingdom for $0.72! I noticed these cards were selling at Hareruya for under $0.50 each and they had dozens in stock. With enough volume, it becomes worth buying them all (knowing they’ll be in very nice condition) to sell locally here.

I was even able to sell some Kukemssa Pirates on eBay, netting me even better margins!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kukemssa Pirates

This seems like pennies compared to the expensive Arabian Nights stuff, sure, but it’s still easy money all the same. It may even be a blessing that the margins are smaller on this stuff because it may remain uninteresting to the traditional arbitrage players who operate with four-figure bankrolls. With just $50 in hand I’ve been able to make profitable purchases from Japan to flip within the U.S.

All I do is browse Card Kingdom’s buylist by set, focusing on Mirage block and Tempest block. I focus on the price range of $0.50 to $2, and I search each match on Hareruya to see if they have copies in stock. Often they’re sold out, but when they have stock it usually is a collection of Near Mint English copies for under a buck. Jackpot!

And just because Card Kingdom has an aggressive buy price doesn’t mean that has to be your out.  Nor does it mean you need to sell right away. These are Reserved List cards, after all, and so they offer long-term potential for either a gradual creep up in demand or an artificial hype-driven pop. Either of these occurrences will bring you more profit.

A Forward-Looking Thought

This research has brought something to my attention, and I think it’s worthwhile to mention here. I’ve been actively dealing in Old School cards for over two years now, and so I have developed an understanding of which vendors pay well on these cards and which do not. I also have learned who offers better prices on played stuff, who pays better on mint stuff, who pays best on Arabian Nights cards, and who pays best on Alpha and Beta cards. I’ve been applying this knowledge ongoing for a couple years now.

One trend that leaps out to me specifically involves Card Kingdom. Before all this Reserved List hype, Card Kingdom always had surprisingly high buy prices on these older cards. They were even paying aggressively on non-RL cards from Arabian Nights. I remember selling them an Aladdin for near $10, Aladdin's Rings for $8, and Spirit Links for $5. And of course their prices on the truly desirable classic cards were all best-in-class.

Then the Reserved List buyouts happened, and Card Kingdom got even more aggressive with their pricing. It’s gotten to the point now that when I want to ship some Reserved List cards to a buylist for easy cash, I don’t even shop around anymore—I immediately default to Card Kingdom’s buy list. This is a strategy that has yet to disappoint me.

So now Card Kingdom is paying very high prices on this spiked RL stuff. What’s more—and this is the key observation—they started paying competitively high prices on the “newer” RL cards I mentioned above. Cards from Mirage, Visions, Weatherlight, etc. that you would expect to be near bulk can be sold to Card Kingdom for upwards of a buck. I’ve already explained how this opens the door to international arbitrage, but is there more at play here?

What if this is another trend that Card Kingdom has detected, and so they are buying up these cards aggressively to have a robust stock should the buyouts extend into the later expansion sets? They must have made out very well with their Arabian Nights through The Dark buying, so perhaps they’re taking this to the next logical conclusion. Why else would they pay $0.80 on a card like Political Trickery (they since dropped their price because I sold them 23 copies)? Or $0.85 on Tombstone Stairwell? Or $0.50 on Equipoise?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Equipoise

Even the truly bulk stuff on the Reserved List sells for twice what a normal bulk rare would buylist to most vendors for, at around $0.20. Do they think there will be more buyouts like these with later sets, despite the significantly larger print runs? I believe they might.

If nothing else, any time you can track down any Reserved List rare at bulk pricing I’d suggest you buy them and set them aside. I keep all my bulk RL rares in a separate box now, and every time I sell cards to Card Kingdom I check to see if they are randomly paying $0.50 or higher on them.

Wrapping It Up

Arbitrage was first defined explicitly by the French in 1704 when they were observing that differences in currency exchange impacted amounts owed. Since then it has been applied in numerous circumstances, and MTG finance is no exception. And even though I didn’t discover the potential of this practice in Magic until just a couple years ago, I suspect it’s been a viable strategy for some time well before then.

The issue with arbitrage is if enough people are aware of the opportunity and have the means to exploit the gaps, the opportunity suddenly vanishes. I suspect that’s why I received a lot of criticism for bringing the practice to the forefront when I wrote about arbitrage a while back. You know what? Those on their high horse who think they have some sort of exclusive rights to arbitrage need to move on! This is 2017, and arbitrage is easily done by everyone if they’re willing to put in the time and effort.

While my initial arbitrage well dried up, I have found a new source of profits with newer Reserved List cards. It seems that some vendors within the U.S.—especially Card Kingdom and ABU Games—place a fairly high value on certain semi-useful cards on the list. Teeka's Dragon and Catacomb Dragon may not be the best inclusions in a newly built Dragons Commander deck, but they’re not completely useless either. As such these can be bought from overseas and sold locally for immediate profit.

I would encourage you to keep your eyes peeled for these random cards. Browsing Card Kingdom’s buy price is an effective way of learning what the above-bulk picks are. Even if you don’t want to invest the time to flip cards from Japan or Europe to the U.S. for arbitrage, there is still merit to being aware of the underlying trends occurring in this market. Just like every Reserved List rare from Magic’s first four expansions is no longer bulk, all Reserved List rares will also eventually follow this trend.

It’s the gift that keeps on giving when it comes to MTG finance and investing. Others will continue to exploit and manipulate prices of cards on this list, and you can choose to ignore it, complain about it, or take advantage it. Given my financial goals with this hobby, I have chosen the third option. Think long and hard about where you want to be now so when the next wave of buyouts occurs (when, not if) you will be clear on your strategy and objectives.

…

Sigbits

  • I haven’t looked at this pricing in a while now, but I noticed recently that Star City Games is still sold out of Alpha and Beta Hypnotic Specters. Their NM pricing is $149.99 and $99.99 respectively, but I wonder if these numbers are still too low? After all, there is exactly one Beta copy in stock on all of TCGplayer and its price is ridiculously high. But another $50 bump higher seems very reasonable given the demand for this guy in Old School MTG.
  • Star City Games is sold out of another heavy-hitter Old School card: Beta Fireball. Their price point is currently $14.99 but I think this should be closer to $20. Fireball was very popular back in the day, so I’d wager many Beta copies of the card were shuffled up without sleeves. So despite being a common, Near Mint copies may be quite difficult to track down…especially as a four-of.
  • The other classic common I want to mention this week is Llanowar Elves. Star City Games is sold out of Alpha and Beta copies of this one as well, with pricing at $39.99 and $19.99 respectively. These, too, will probably move higher in the next few months as SCG looks to restock copies…eventually.

Insider: Thinking About Old Cards – Value in Alpha/Beta

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It is pretty undeniable that the oldest Magic cards are among the most interesting and iconic in the history of the game. There are certainly newer printings that stick in the imaginations of players—Jace, the Mind Sculptor, or even Siege Rhino—but there is something really special about the original cards and the first few expansions.

For starters, many of the oldest cards are simply the most powerful cards ever made. Dual lands, Moxes, Power 9, and Mana Drain—they don't make them like that anymore (except when they reprint Mana Drain)…

When it comes to the absolute top tier of expensive old cards, I feel like most people have similar thoughts and goals.

"I'd like to own dual lands so I can play Legacy."

"I'd like to own the Power 9 so I can play Vintage."

Players and collectors think of these purchases as investments. They want to collect them and play with them, but they also understand that these cards are likely to continue to gain value moving forward. Magic cards are a fairly stable collectible when it comes to prices and investments.

I have a hard time suggesting the top tier of cards as an investment. The presence of the Reserved List leads me to believe that these cards will likely continue to appreciate in value over time by virtue of their scarcity. The problem is that they are already so expensive.

If you gave me $2000 to invest in Magic cards to resell in a few years I wouldn't buy Power 9 with that money. I think that the Power 9 would be extremely likely to appreciate in that time, but I think there are better margins on other kinds of cards. The top tier of the Reserved List is like super safe stocks or bonds that always go up.

Pondering Old School

A lot of my QS content comes from my everyday interactions with buying, selling, and trading Magic cards. This week is no different.

I had an awesome find come up last week. I was in Canada playing FNM at a game store I'd never been to and I stumbled onto some aggressively priced Old School singles. Basically, I got the impression that they had been sitting in a binder for a year and nobody local was into those kinds of cards. Especially taking into consideration the favorable exchange rate, I got a really sick deal on eight Old School cards where I was paying between 25-35% of retail on some really cool old cards.

Obviously, if you are out and about and find great deals on cards it makes a lot of sense to pull the trigger. Obvious fact is obvious. However, it got me thinking about a few things.

First of all, the cards were not the top tier of Old School cards. I was picking up things like Alpha Black Knight, White Knight, Sengir Vampire, and Singing Tree. These are cards that have spiked up in value over the past year or so because of the popularity of Old School and the changing collectible marketplace.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Singing Tree

It turns out that Modern cards are not the safe haven of MTG investing that they used to be in the past. Reprints have really put a damper on the value and expected return on staples. We know that when Modern cards become expensive they will be reprinted in Modern Masters, Commander decks, etc.

However, Alpha, Beta, Arabian Nights, etc. will always be old and cool. It doesn't matter if Black Knight gets reprinted 1000 times, the Alpha and Beta versions will always be desirable because they are classic and iconic. When people play Old School these are the copies they want to own.

Reconsidering the Lower Tier

I think there is a rising demand for a lot of cards that were thought to be fairly undesirable in the past. For instance, as a result of this particular buy, it put the idea into my head to make an Old School Danger Room/Battle Box stack that uses only cards going back to before Ice Age. I think it'd be a challenge to build the cube but I also think it would be very fun to play a different kind of Magic.

I've been trying to pick up the remaining Old School singles and have been able to find a lot of prices that are less than I'd expect. The fact that I'd expect to pay more tells me that perhaps these are the kind of cards that have a lot of potential for future gains as a collectible investment.

I went through the set list for Beta and took a look at cards that have had a fairly consistent price point for a while. These are the cards of interest I found:

Flat-priced Beta cards

Most of these cards are uncommons, with a few powerful commons mixed in. The key here is that while the rares and constructed staples have all spiked up pretty aggressively, these cards have remained mostly the same for several years.

I'd also like to point out that the cards I've focused on are, more or less, playable Magic cards. Perhaps these are not playable in Legacy or Vintage, but they are not embarrassingly bad cards. These are cards that I could see people wanting to use in Old School cubes or in casual Old School decks.

Imagining New Formats

I feel like in Magic finance part of the key is using one's imagination to envision a new market for cards that is likely to come into being at some point in time. Perhaps I've just got "old card fever" because I bought a bunch of sweet old cards last week, but maybe I've actually stumbled onto something.

I imagine that building a cube with all old cards would be a way to get some of my family members who no longer play Magic to battle some games with me. Battle Box is great but there are so many new mechanics and cards that it isn't really possible to play that format with my brother or cousins. However, if I built an Old School version I believe they'd be able and excited to play some ready-made games with me.

I also feel like with some of these "less desirable" Old School cards there is potential to track them down on the cheap and find really good deals. I was looking at prices on Star City Games and I imagine I could find these cards much cheaper on TCGplayer or at a local game store.

Anyways, the thought behind today's article is that perhaps there is an opportunity with some of these less desirable uncommons to buy in and make gains in the near future. It's not like these cards are particularly easy to find when and if you were looking for a specific one. As with anything, condition matters, especially on collectible cards.

Let's just say I've been asking people if they have "old cards" and have been making offers on commons and uncommons lately. There's for sure value there—even if the prices don't spike hard, I do believe that there are a lot of people interested in these cards who are doing the same thing that I am right now. Take that for what its worth!

Pay to Play: Brewing Counter-Vamp

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I've been a little distracted from Magic lately, and not even grinding the PPTQ season as planned. But all it takes for that to change is a well-timed spoiler from Wizards. Ixalan's been delivering plenty of those, and between the dripping-with-flavor new cards and the juicy-looking Magic: Arena, I'm back on the proverbial horse—the brewing horse, that is.

In this article, I'll take you through my brewing process this week, which saw me trying to fit [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] into a Delver of Secrets shell.

Cullen Scales

A few factors pushed me to experiment with [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy]. For one, I enjoy brewing with new spoilers; for another, Vanguard seemed like a quick solution to some problems I've been noticing in the kinds of decks I play.

Tarmogoyf and Fatal Push

I've been playing lots with Counter-Cat lately, and one thing that comes up against black decks is the fragility of Tarmogoyf. If I'm going to spend two mana on a beater, I want that creature not to die to commonly-played removal spells at a parity loss. That used to be Tarmogoyf's strength in Modern: removing it meant trading evenly on mana with something like Terminate, losing tempo with something like Maelstrom Pulse, or giving opponents a land with Path to Exile. Hence why Spell Snare and Liliana of the Veil shone so brightly; they were the only good answers to Tarmogoyf.

Goyf is still Goyf. It applies lots of pressure for two mana, and plays defense as admirably as offense. But the presence of Fatal Push in the format undermines Tarmogoyf in an unprecedented way.

The Soldier That Sucked

While perusing the latest Ixalan spoilers, a relatively simple card caught my eye: [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy]. This two-mana Vampire turned sideways for three and would be impossible to kill cleanly—the neatest removal spell was Path to Exile, which as mentioned carries a hefty drawback in the tempo-oriented Modern format. Everything else becomes Vexing Devil, a card shunned by competitive players for its dealbreaker punisher mechanic.

Granted, turning all your opponent's removal spells into Vexing Devil isn't a sure-fire way to win. Vexing Devil is indeed quite good in multiples. But there happens to be a card in Modern's card pool that rewards players for taking damage. And since [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy]'s ability can be activated at will, the Vampire boasts palpable synergy with Death's Shadow.

Finding a Shell

I didn't have to look long to find a shell. Instead, I immediately tried fitting [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] into a build of Counter-Cat, my Wild-Nacatl-featuring Delver deck.

I've tried running Death's Shadow and Delver of Secrets together before. The main problem I ran into there was a deckbuilding one: Delver required a critical mass of instants and sorceries, and Shadow required, well, Street Wraith. That one threat then took up eight creature slots, making Delver less reliable unless I was willing to pack fewer actual threats than I'd have liked. That's what I did, and the deck failed.

[tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] represented a solution to this problem. A threat itself, the Vampire wouldn't take up precious slots for air. It also supported Shadow as well as Wraith, if not better, constantly threatening a pseudo-Hatred effect whenever the two co-existed on the field. Incorporating Vanguard and Shadow into a Delver shell would allow me the threat-heavy lineup I was used to while ostensibly adding better cards into the deck's answer pool, as well as an aggro-combo dimension.

Version 1: Esper

To approach the project, I broke down Counter-Cat by color. Blue was necessary for cantrips and permission, which form its backbone. The other colors played were green, for threats, and white/red, for removal and to support Wild Nacatl. With Nacatl out of the picture, red seemed vestigial, and green was made unnecessary by the idea of the deck in the first place: to transition away from Tarmogoyf. White and black, which I was already in for the threats, enjoy the best removal in Modern. But green was the easiest cut, since Vanguard and Shadow were lined up to replace Nacatl and Goyf anyway. To sub in for Hooting Mandrills, the best creature in the deck, I of course chose Tasigur, the Golden Fang.

My initial shell then stuck to Esper colors, and otherwise tried as closely as possible to port over the Counter-Cat foundation. Since I was familiar with Counter-Cat, playtesting with a near-clone would hopefully give me insight into the changes I had to account for in these colors and with these cards. As mentioned, Vanguard replaced Tarmogoyf on the curve, but Nacatl in size; Shadow filled the role of resident fatty previously occupied by the Lhurgoyf. The counter suite remained unchanged, and the eight-pack of Bolt/Path became a split of five one-mana removal spells and a set of Thoughtseize, the latter a crucial Shadow enabler and all-around ridiculous spell.

Counter-Vamp 1.0, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Adanto Vanguard
4 Death's Shadow
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
1 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

2 Opt
2 Path to Exile
3 Fatal Push
3 Disrupting Shoal
2 Spell Pierce
2 Spell Snare
2 Mana Leak

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
4 Serum Visions
3 Sleight of Hand

Land

4 Polluted Delta
4 Flooded Strand
4 Marsh Flats
2 Watery Grave
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Godless Shrine
1 Swamp
1 Island

Sideboard

1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Negate
1 Disenchant
1 Snapcaster Mage
2 Spreading Seas
1 Path to Exile
2 Ceremonious Rejection
2 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Illness in the Ranks
2 Collective Brutality

As is always the case with a first draft, the deck had plenty of issues. Here are some of the ones I noticed:

The Irrelevance of Countermagic

The deck's permission suite, copy-pasted from Counter-Cat, was far worse in this shell than in its original home. Tapping out and protecting our threat, the Delver dream, proved less relevant when [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] protects itself anyway, and Shadow comes down late enough for us to back it up with mana. Similarly, Vanguard and Shadow each provide a lot of value against the grindy interactive decks that tend to beat up on Delver strategies in the first place, so Shoal's value in Game 1 scenarios plummets there.

Spell Snare and Mana Leak, too, failed to impress. Leak is great on turn two after leading with a Delver; Counter-Cat has multiple ways to ensure this sequence thanks to Wild Nacatl. [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy], though, costs two mana and makes expensive permission unappealing. Death's Shadow, our new one-drop, also doesn't resolve until past the first turn. That means Leak is often used defensively, while we set up; in such cases, removal spells generally fulfill a similar purpose and are more efficient. Spell Snare specifically played like a worse Fatal Push most of the time.

That said, Spell Pierce was great in this deck. It would get even better if we could ramp up on proactivity.

Opt, I Did It Again

I covered Opt's implications and applications in detail last week. My take was that the card would shine in highly reactive, instant-speed decks like Jeskai, and prove lackluster elsewhere, where Sleight of Hand offers pilots making a choice twice as much information. Pilots of other decks are also likely to want to cantrip at the earliest possible opportunity anyway to make use of the card they draw on their main phase.

That's not to say I wasn't at least interested in testing Opt, and many of the blue decks I played last week tried to squeeze some copies in. Counter-Cat likes a pair of Thought Scour to enable quick Hooting Mandrills, but also to have something to do on an opponent's end step after holding up Leak/Pierce/Snare/Shoal/Snap for a turn. Kelsey's testing revealed that two one-mana, instant-speed cantrips was the right number. Since Counter-Vamp only runs two delve threats and no Goyfs, I figured the velocity of Thought Scour might be less important than the card selection of Opt, and tested with the Ixalan cantrip.

It turns out even with so few graveyard synergies, Scour's velocity was sorely missed. I split my bottoms and tops with Opt maybe 50-50, but still wished I could have a blind dumping effect over the scry nearly every time. It's generally correct to just throw Opts on the opponent's end step if possible, as we usually need more cards and will always need the mana down the road. But the kind of card we drew mattered less than the cycling effect, indicating Scour would be better in this slot.

Removal and Utility Issues

Even with 4 Thoughtseize, the 3 Push/2 Path split still left me wanting, homesick for Counter-Cat's heavy removal suite. Using Bolt, Push, or Path on an opponent's creature often robs them of tempo, since they've invested resources into resolving that creature; Thoughtseize does no such thing. While it's great at stripping an opponent of options, the targeted discard spell is somewhat at odds with the Delver school of tempo swings, no matter how necessary it is with Death's Shadow.

Esper also suffered from utility issues. I found it challenging to remove pesky permanents like Chalice of the Void or Ensnaring Bridge post-board, or to win through them, which informed some of the sideboard decisions (no, Disenchant is not the card I was most excited to run in my sideboard). Boards full of small creatures also pestered me, even with the Last Hope. As with Fatal Push, many of the must-run cards in these colors are low on utility, which clashes with yet another Delver school.

Version 2: Splashing Red

Besides addressing the problems outlined in the Esper version directly, my second build included red for its utility and for the allure of an aggro-combo gameplan.

Affording Utility

Red provides many utility options in Modern, including the king of utility, Lightning Bolt. Bolt's ability to provide reach (a whole attack's worth) or board control makes it a stunningly good card, even in this metagame. The card's relevance in a Delver of Secrets deck also cannot be overstated. Delver decks like interacting on either player's turn, racing in the sky and with direct damage spells, and breaking up creature synergies. Bolt just does everything the deck wants to do, unlike a card like Fatal Push; our goal is frequently to just kill our opponent before their strategy comes online, so cards that excel at bringing us into the late-game are only sometimes relevant.

Another draw to the color are the sideboard options. Kolaghan's Command and By Force are significantly more employable Chalice of the Void-destroyers than Disenchant (barf). The best red sideboard card, though, is Pyroclasm, which I've been swearing by for years. Two damage is often as much as 3 when it comes to go-wide matchups, and the one mana of difference between Clasm and Anger of the Gods—adding insult to injury, the one colored mana of difference—makes an enormous difference in a deck with cantrips. Pyroclasm is definitely worse with Vanguard than it is with Wild Nacatl, which is unfortunate, but I think it's still the best at its job. We can also take 4 damage to protect Vanguard if we need to.

It's not red, but Collective Brutality was moved to the mainboard in this version for even more utility. The card synergizes with Claim // Fame and alleviates life point tension, all while being a strong interactive card in its own right.

Working the Aggro-Combo Dimension

The color also gives us multiple reliable gameplans. While Death's Shadow and [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] form something of a combo together already, supportive red cards make their cute interaction into a viable way to cheese opponents and steal games.

First up, let's consider Temur Battle Rage, one of the most pushed aggro-combo enablers the game has ever seen. Battle Rage was fine in Jund Shadow, but things get silly with [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] in the picture. Since Shadow can now grow into the double-digits whenever we see fit, a pair of these makes our aggro-combo plan into something opponents must respect. To make room for Battle Rage, I axed some of those clunky counterspells; proactivity is generally valued higher than interactivity in Modern anyway, and we no longer have Disrupting Shoal to worry about.

Next, we get Claim // Fame, which I think Counter-Vamp is primed to abuse. The above Esper build didn't use the graveyard enough for my tastes. One mark of successful Modern decks is their ability to straddle the line between using the powerful graveyard-based spells available and becoming too reliant on those synergies; ideally, we can sufficiently punish opponents that bring in too much graveyard hate by ignoring it. Claim // Fame is our nothing-without-a-'yard card, as Tarmogoyf is for Counter-Cat. Its haste function further buffs our aggro-combo dimension, and Claim can notably return [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] against those pesky Liliana of the Veil decks.

Besides Unearthing either half of our "combo," the card revives Delver of Secrets when we need an aerial threat and Snapcaster Mage when we need a given instant or sorcery in the graveyard.

Including Claim // Fame pushed me to max out on Thought Scour and cut the second Tasigur for another Snap.

Counter-Vamp 2.0, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Delver of Secrets
4 Adanto Vanguard
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
2 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Thought Scour
4 Lightning Bolt
2 Path to Exile
2 Fatal Push
2 Spell Pierce
2 Temur Battle Rage

Sorceries

4 Thoughtseize
4 Serum Visions
2 Claim // Fame
1 Collective Brutality

Lands

4 Polluted Delta
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Flooded Strand
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Watery Grave
1 Hallowed Fountain
1 Godless Shrine
1 Steam Vents
1 Blood Crypt
1 Swamp
1 Island

Sideboard

1 Engineered Explosives
2 Spreading Seas
1 Path to Exile
2 Ceremonious Rejection
1 Kolaghan's Command
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Collective Brutality
1 By Force
2 Pyroclasm

The Vanguard Problem

The issue I had with [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] after some sets with this build is that it might not do enough for its cost. Three power for two mana is nothing to write home about; the card costs twice as much as Wild Nacatl! Plus, it doesn't wall Goblin Guide, survive Pyroclasm, or even block an undelirious Grim Flayer on defense. Heck, Liliana, the Last Hope can pick it off as easily as a Spirit token.

Against noninteractive matchups, two mana is an awful lot for three power. Perhaps the card's combo implications with Death's Shadow make up for this downfall, but in some games, I would draw one and not the other and fail to apply enough pressure. And if opponents prioritize killing Death's Shadow, Vanguard gets even worse.

Another issue with Vanguard is that some decks are happy to use their removal spells as reach. Take Jeskai Queller, a burn-heavy tempo deck that wins on opponent's end steps over the course of four or five turns. An unstoppable beater would be great against this kind of deck, but Vanguard's only unstoppable if we choose to actively advance Jeskai's gameplan. Ironically, Tarmogoyf is much stronger against this removal-packed deck, as it doesn't play Fatal Push.

And there's the crux of it: as I said before, Goyf is still Goyf. Vanguard is not Goyf. Its application with Shadow and Battle Rage needs to carry the card, since Vanguard itself is just too weak and fair. At the end of the day, while Vanguard is better than Goyf against Push specifically, too few decks play Push to make up for its other shortcomings.

Mana Issues

The mana was actually pretty good in this deck, but then, I'm no stranger to sculpting land-light, four-color manabases. I still ran into some games where I'd have all four colors across two lands, including a Godless Shrine or Blood Crypt that couldn't tap for anything. The solution to this problem is to tweak the color layout of the spells, accounting for colors as I would for mana curve; there's also surely a practice element at work, and more time playing and fetching would likely lead to fewer games with a dead land.

A Looming Shadow

Is this deck a worse Grixis Shadow? In short, yes. But that's what you get for playing Delver of Secrets in Modern these days. I liken it to playing non-Mentor cantrip decks in Vintage; while Delver used to form the cornerstone of the Preordain-Gush strategies there, since Monastery Mentor's release, blue decks have uniformly revolved around the more compact win condition. The main reason to play something like Counter-Vamp is wanting to play something with Delver of Secrets in it, which honestly isn't such a bad reason in as open a format as Modern. But at that point, I think I'd still rather play Counter-Cat.

Mo' Tweaking, Mo' Problems

The beauty of brewing is that as problems are identified and solved, new problems arise, sometimes as a result of another fix. This constant stream of challenges is what makes brewing such a stimulating and interesting part of Magic. Often, after a certain amount of testing and tweaking, I'll find that the "optimized" version of what I started with is an overall worse version of an existing deck; other times, I'll lose interest in the brew after a few drafts, perhaps ceasing to explore my options before developing a worthwhile deck. And occasionally, I'll stumble across something fun and unique like Eldrazi Stompy or Counter-Cat, and continue playing it indefinitely.

As always, I raise my glass to Wizards for continuing to print interesting cards like [tippy title="Adanto Vanguard"][/tippy] that get my creative juices flowing. Which cards from Ixalan have you brewing? Share with me in the comments.

Insider: Ixalan Spoilers, Part 2

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The merfolk are swimming to the surface while the dinosaurs are stomping around in the wilderness and the pirates are trying to kill all the vampires and take their gold. All the while, our cards are flipping sides again, and in addition to Ixalan spoilers we got the whole set of Iconic Masters spoiled this weekend. It’s crazy fun Christmas time right now and I’m loving it.

There’s a ton of info to cover today so let’s start with some cool Ixalan spoilers and we’ll get to the Iconic Masters discussion another time. For now, let’s look at the competitive and financial implications of all these Ixalan cards.

Growing Rites of Itlimoc

 

It's hard to gauge the power level of these transform cards. Take Dowsing Dagger, for example, the equipment that flips in a Black Lotus effect. That card seems extremely powerful but the two modes don’t really go well together. You need early creatures to equip the Dagger to in order to transform it, but the flip side gives you a giant mana advantage with plus-three mana of one color. Crazy-powerful ability, but weird synergistic interactions to get there.

Growing Rites of Itlimoc seems great, though, because both of the sides go well together. The initial side, the enchantment, is basically a new version of Commune with Nature. These types of effects like Oath of Nissa are great and can help you find the creatures you’re looking for to progress your game plan.

The flip side seems reasonably easy to achieve also. At first I thought this was going to be a Windbrisk Heights-style effect where you had to attack with the creatures, but as it turns out, we have an easier-to-pull-off version similar to Hanweir Militia Captain. The only difference between Rites and the Captain is the timing of the ability. Rites is much easier to trigger because you can play the creature(s) on your turn and then trigger the flip at the end of the turn.

Both financially and competitively I love this card. It works great with tokens or mana creatures and seems well suited for Standard, Commander and maybe even a little Modern. The current preorder price certainly indicates how popular this card will most likely be. As of this writing, Rites is selling for $20! That’s the highest preorder price in this set so far. Like I said, so many different types of players are going to try to utilize this card, hence the high preorder price.

Right below Rites of Itlimoc in value are the three planeswalkers in the set, Jace, Cunning Castaway, Vraska, Relic Seeker, and Huatli, Warrior Poet. Jace is looking great to pair with either Pirates, Merfolk, or both. Vraska, although I haven’t covered her, looks quite disappointing and should drop in value dramatically quickly after release. The hard-to-judge Huatli is a bit uncertain in my mind but will most likely drop in price as well.

This all leaves room for cards like Growing Rites of Itlimoc to prosper and be quite valuable (although as a non-mythic at these preorder prices, expect it to drop first). Look for foils of this new green enchantment to have a high multiplier as well. I know I’ll be looking for at least one foil as will lots of others.

Legion’s Landing

Between cards like Legion's Landing and Vicious Conquistador, we’re getting more and more options spoiled for a Vampire deck in Standard. These new cards are making this potential deck look quite interesting. Based on Legion's Landing and Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle it seems like we are gearing Vampires towards a token strategy. It's most likely not so focused that we’d want Anointed Procession, but that’s still one of my favorite specs currently.

Legion's Landing reminds me of Oath of Gideon where you get a creature and then have a different added bonus later on. Oath gets you an extra loyalty counter on your planeswalkers while Landing is a mana boost or creature producer.

With Anointed Procession, making two 1/1s each turn seems pretty great to me, but unless we get a Spectral Procession or Lingering Souls-type card, I don’t think we’ll be able to go that route. The closest thing we have is Call to the Feast, a four-mana sorcery that makes three 1/1 Vampires. However, four mana for this effect is not what I’m looking for in a competitive card, especially because it conflicts with Anointed Procession’s mana cost.

More likely the tokens will be an added bonus because we need actual creature cards to trigger Mavren. Creatures like Duskborn Skymarcher will be good enough because they come into play before Mavren and will trigger his token-making ability.

Getting back to the card at hand, the best part about Legion's Landing is that this card replaces itself similar to how Thraben Inspector does. Instead of paying two mana for a random card, though, you get a free land into play with a sweet ability to help you overcome mana flood or combat control decks.

As you can see, I’m comparing this one-mana 1/1 enchantment to many great cards. That’s because I have a very high opinion about this card. I think it will be great and lots of players will play it. Even if Vampires proves unworthy of the Standard environment, this card could easily go in any aggressive white deck.

Legion's Landing is preordering at $3, and for the record, Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle is under $2. I could see the same thing happening with these cards as did with Zombies when that deck broke out. We are missing the staple mythic rare like Relentless Dead that will skyrocket in value, but these rare Vampires could easily double in price. This archetype is one I’ll definitely be working to develop. It’s an aggressive deck that has tokens in it and that’s right up my alley.

Legion Conquistador

The new take on Squadron Hawk, Legion Conquistador, seems like a more balanced version of the previously broken card. This time, it has a relevant creature type in Vampires so that’s definitely a bonus. Don’t get me wrong, an additional mana is a big deal. Part of the reason Squadron Hawk was so overpowered was because it cost two mana, so bumping it up to three mana is definitely a power-down. That being said, this is still an incredible card.

Legion Conquistador is basically the same as draw three cards, get a 2/2. The Squadron Hawk ability hasn’t been used in years because it's easy to break. This time around we don’t have Jace, the Mind Sculptor to abuse the extra copies in our hands, but that doesn’t mean the ability is any less potent. Should a way be printed to shuffle copies back into your deck, this will jump up in power level even more than it already is.

As it stands now, this will be a Standard staple, most likely in multiple strategies. Soon you’ll be sick of seeing a bunch of three-mana 2/2’s running around.

It’s a common so the price ceiling is pretty low, but right now it’s preordering around a quarter which is pretty decent for a common.

Burning Sun’s Avatar

Burning Sun's Avatar, aka Inferno Titan, should be amazing in Standard. It’s a rare so I think as history shows us, the starting price should be low solely based on that fact alone. Remember too, there are no Masterpieces in this set to drastically drive down the price of the other cards. We need to constantly remind ourselves of that fact because prices from this set will act differently than what we’ve been used to in the Masterpiece era.

I love everything about Burning Sun's Avatar. The fact that it’s a Dinosaur may or may not matter, but its abilities are good enough that the creature type will be a bonus. This "Big Red" style win condition would be a great finisher for a ramp deck or a dinosaur deck. Those two concepts may turn out to be one and the same.

Burning Sun's Avatar is preordering as a bulk rare. That has to be a mistake. There are tons of copies under a dollar so I’m about to go preorder some for myself. I typically am conservative about preorders in case I’m wrong, but my opinion about this card is pretty strong.

Sword-Point Diplomacy

Sword-Point Diplomacy is a trap so beware if you plan to play it. Just like Browbeat, your opponent can always choose the good cards to pay life for and the bad cards to let you have. Playing Sword-Point Diplomacy is not the same as casting Painful Truths. Casting this card is more like giving your opponent Zur's Weirding. Basically, unless your opponent is in dire trouble with their life total, or you trick them, they will pay life to not give you the cards that will eventually kill them.

So then, let’s play this efficient card drawing spell in an aggressive deck where we put a lot of pressure on our opponent’s life total. There seems to be multiple options for aggressive black decks in the new upcoming Standard format. We may still have a remnant of the Zombie deck that’s currently running around, and then we add to that Pirates and Vampires as possibilities. If you play Sword-Point Diplomacy in one of those strategies, then all of a sudden your opponent has fewer options about whether or not they can pay life to have you not draw extra cards. The same held true for Browbeat as well.

Sword-Point Diplomacy is too new to have a preorder price just yet. I expect it to be cheap to preorder though, due to the stipulation that your opponent can pay life to negate your draws. If an aggressive deck picks it up, I think it may tick up a little in price but these punisher-mechanic cards usually don’t catch on.

Ashes of the Abhorrent

Ashes of the Abhorrent is another in the long line of hate enchantments. White is gaining the means to counter just about any strategy with these type of cards. Stony Silence shuts down Affinity, Rest in Peace does a great job cutting off all graveyards as options, and we just got Solemnity to dismantle counter-based strategies too.

Ashes of the Abhorrent doesn’t fill a new role in Modern sideboards, but it does provide an option for a slightly different Rest in Peace. In Standard, Ashes makes all the graveyard strategies fall down though. Should any new graveyard-based decks arise, we now have the option to play this enchantment as a direct counter.

At $1.50 I think this is a great investment as a Rest in Peace alternative. This card is not exactly the same thing and is not quite as good. Rest in Peace removes all the cards from graveyards, and future cards too—so as long as it’s in play nothing will be in graveyards. Ashes allows the cards to stay where they are; we just can’t really interact with them. All this being said, my statement still stands. This is a much more accessible and cheaper option for the same type of effect. I like holding some copies of this card to see where it goes.

More Spoilers to Come

That’ll do it for me for this week. Ixalan is shaping up awesomely and I’m really excited about many strategies from this set. Come on back next week for some more spoilers!

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
MtgJedi on YouTube

Insider: QS Cast #77: Friends and Dinosaurs

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The QS Cast returns! Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil come together as the new panel – and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Chris Van Meter joins the cast! @Chris_VanMeter 
  • Ixalan discussion, Iconic Masters, Magic Arena
  • Interests (Tarkan decides to leave in the wake of Thoughtseize reprint!)
  • CVM's new series: "Friendsday Night Magic with CVM" - @FNMwithCVM

Tarkan's thoughts (had to leave early):

Due to renewed interest in everything Un, i like Unhinged foils - Infernal Spawn of the Infernal Spawn. Johnny Combo Player. LONG TERM holds, these won't be reprinted.

RL- prices have corrected. But I think RL Foils are a good place to park $. I like Covetous Dragon

Non-IMA reprints: Scapeshift and Goryos Veng. Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see $100 spike pre-PT.

Other stuff: ARENA not going to replace MTGO anytime soon. too much competition in the marketplace for it to generate enough "freemium" revenue to replace the platform. Also, no trading will keep that from happening.

Cards we discussed: CVM likes Vona, Butcher of Magan - fairly inexpensive Mythic with upside.

 

CVM's New Series!

 

Enjoy!

Find us on Twitter: @FNMwithCVM @Chris_VanMeter  @ChazVMTG @the_tark

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Ixalan Spoilers: Part 1

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As much as I enjoy talking about the fringe aspects of Magic—perspective, identity, opportunity—I can’t ignore a new set on the horizon. Ixalan is here, bringing along Pirates, Dinosaurs, treasure, and things that turn into land. I don’t know what’s happening, which means I’ve been out of the loop for too long. That being said, let’s dive into spoilers, the old school way. No twist, no fresh take. Just cards, what I think about them, and where they could possibly fit in Modern. As is the case with classic spoiler discussion, let’s suspend reason (slightly) and imagine best-case scenarios. Rather than what is most likely to happen, I want to focus on what it would take to see these cards make an impact in Modern. It’s hype time.

As of this writing (Tuesday evening, September 12) there are 148 of 279 cards spoiled. With the prerelease in two weeks, we should know all the cards by the time my next article goes live, but it’s possible a few might slip between the cracks. Still, I expect most cards that could make an impact to fall within the 90% window I can cover. This has been a public service announcement.

The Cards

Jace, Cunning Castaway

It isn’t better than Jace Beleren (my favorite planeswalker of all time) and Baby Jace doesn’t see play—but for a minute, what would a deck that plays this look like? Naturally, blue decks with creatures that deal damage makes me wish it created Merfolk Illusion tokens, but alas.

I’m annoyed that we don’t even get card advantage as a reward for hitting with a creature, and instead get filtering as our payoff. How many hoops do we have to jump through to get "draw a card" on a cheap blue planeswalker? This guy definitely won’t see play, but Doubling Season plus [tippy title="Jace, Cunning Castaway"][/tippy] to make infinite Jace’s is something fun at least.

Growing Rites of Itlimoc

Next up we have the first of several double-faced transform lands. This one transforms into [tippy title="Itlimoc, Cradle of the Sun"][/tippy].

A slower Gaea's Cradle that (probably) replaces itself to give Elves a ton of mana on turn—three?—is interesting, in the sense that it helps their nut draws and provides an extra few ways to generate a bunch of mana for Ezuri outside of Elvish Archdruid. Growing Rites could get powered out and flipped on turn two by a turn-one Llanowar Elves, followed by turn-two Heritage Druid into two Elves into Rites. This gives us four mana on our end step to Collected Company on turn two, which feels real nice for sure.

This has to be more interesting than Lead the Stampede. But I worry that moving away from Lead towards something that helps our velocity at the cost of our consistency is the wrong move when we’re already worried about Thoughtseize taking away our payoff, and removal spells keeping our board thin. Still, I’m interested to see what Rites can do.

Search for Azcanta

Aaaaaahhhhhh!!!!!! They put Azure Mage on a land! Those idiots, they’ve doomed us all!

I’ll admit, I’m super excited about [tippy title="Search for Azcanta"][/tippy] in grindy blue decks, even though I know that the lategame isn’t blue’s problem. Tons of leftover mana isn’t common in Modern unless things are going very badly for our opponent or we drew horribly, in which case we’re probably dead regardless. In addition, a two-mana thing that has the potential to draw us a card for three mana the next turn (and every turn after that) is the very definition of slow.

We are never using [tippy title="Search for Azcanta"][/tippy] the way we imagine, by drawing into that gas to save us against Affinity beating us down. Where it might shine is in the midrange and control matchups, where a million options to tech against the grindy decks already exist. I think the card will be fun, but this is the answer to a question blue currently isn’t asking in Modern.

Kopala, Warden of Waves

Essentially a Kira, Great Glass-Spinner-lite effect on a Merfolk. So, awesome. We can play this alongside Kira or instead of it—I’m sure the Merfolk players will gladly tell you which is better, but regardless, this card ramps up the power of the archetype just a bit, which might be all it needs.

Vapor Snag is still good last time I checked, and while Fatal Push definitely hurt the archetype, its pedigree is proven at this point. As much as I usually hate seeing Merfolk (as I’m often playing Blue), I do miss having it around the metagame, and Kopala making the cut should definitely help it out.

Various Merfolk Stuff

[tippy title="River Sneak"][/tippy] doesn’t make it in a crowded two-drop class, but I applaud it for trying. Two lords, Phantasmal Image, Harbinger of the Tides, and Silvergill Adept are for the most part unbeatable at this point. [tippy title="Deeproot Waters"][/tippy] is slow, but it rewards us for filling our deck with a ton of the same effect. Twenty-sixish ways to generate "free" value is fine, and at worst, those tokens can chump as we’re racing. At best, they get pumped to 2/2s or 3/3s and we look like geniuses.

Quick Hits

Ashes of the Abhorrent

[tippy title="Ashes of the Abhorrent"][/tippy] does most of what we want, while also gaining us a little bit of value along the way? I’m not impressed. The matchups we lose to graveyard decks comes when they answer our answer or power through somehow, and I don’t think 3-5 life at best will save us in those situations. Rest in Peace is just way more impactful, exiling everything forever so that even when they find their answer, they're starting from ground zero.

Opt

I'll defer to Jordan on this one. If you haven't had a chance to read his take on cantrips and how Opt will fit into Modern, I suggest taking a look.

Thaumatic Compass

Finally, there's [tippy title="Thaumatic Compass"][/tippy], which transforms into [tippy title="Spires of Orazca"][/tippy]. So, it draws lands, and when we have seven lands, it turns into Maze of Ith. Obviously we want the Maze before seven lands, but I could see this card in those grindy Tron decks that don’t exist anymore thanks to Eldrazi and RG Breach taking away their market share.

Conclusion

Only seeing half the set, I’m excited for the level of card quality I’ve seen so far, but, as is often the case, no clear standouts for Modern have popped up yet. The card I think is most likely to make an impact is [tippy title="Growing Rites of Itlimoc"][/tippy], and the card I think is most likely to see play is [tippy title="Kopala, Warden of Waves"][/tippy].

Looking at the state of Modern over the past few weeks, no major changes or shakeups are necessary, as the format continues to stay diverse and relatively fair. This is a good thing, but for the most part unrelated, as set releases rarely line up with a troubled Modern as a potential solution to fix anything. Still, Ixalan looks to have interesting mechanics and unique effects, and I would love to see a transform card make its way into a popular Modern deck at the very least.

Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next week for Part 2 of Ixalan spoilers!

Trevor Holmes

Playtesting MTG Arena at HASCON

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Thanks to the folks at Hasbro, Quiet Speculation, via yours truly, got a chance to test an exclusive demo of the new digital offering from Wizards of the Coast – Magic: The Gathering Arena!

After a quick intro from Nate Price, the Arena Community Manager, I got to pick between the Dinosaur deck and the Pirate deck (both of which had been featured on Twitch prior to the event) and selected Pirates. At first glance, you would never guess that this is only the alpha release of the game, because the graphics and music are simply amazing.

Visual display is one of the main focuses of Arena. Developers chose to simplify the cards on the battlefield to the bare minimum needed to understand the board state and put the emphasis on the art. A key addition is that “bomb” spells (most often rares and mythics) get a fancy animation when they are played. This feature will adapt to the metagame and will not be restricted to any specific rarity: if an uncommon sees major play, it can get its own animation added (I personally suggested Walk the Plank). Another “wow” factor I experienced during the demo: planeswalker cards are displayed with full art!!

Arena is facing a tough ordeal in trying to balance visual simplicity with Magic's complex gameplay. It is difficult to include all the relevant information on a card at a glance. The development team manages to do so by replacing text boxes with icons – not just for menace, trample, raid, etc. – but also the concepts of triggered and activated abilities as well as an animation for flying creatures.

The gameplay feels great and intuitive. Some improvement is needed, though: the various steps of the attack phase (confirmed using duplicate clicks) as well as target selections for spells and abilities (cards move around once selected, which can lead to confusion) can and will be updated. To tackle these and other issues, the team at Wizards of the Coast's new Digital Games Studio is now moving Arena to a closed beta. It will be beta testers’ feedback that will drive the debugging, additional features and further developments of Arena.

One of the main gameplay aspects I was curious about was the handling of mana resources. I was delighted to learn that Arena features a “smart” mana engine! Players have essentially two ways to play spells: you can do it the usual way and tap the lands of your choice, or you drag and drop a card from your hand. In this case, the game will automatically select lands to be tapped based on the mana cost but will try and optimize which lands to tap taking into account the cards you have left. There is also a "full control" mode, equivalent to a Magic Online setup for which you make every mana decision and stop at every step of every phase.

After the demo, I got the chance to chat with Elaine Chase, VP of Global Brand Strategy & Marketing at Wizards of the Coast. She made clear that Wizards wants this new platform to be the state of the art of digital CCGs: “We invented the concept of the TCG, we had the first digital CCG, and developing Arena is the most natural, logical step. We want to provide players with the most authentic and entertaining experience, and this is done by enhancing the visual aspect of the game.”

Of course, I had to ask the most obvious question. Is Arena a replacement for Magic Online or an answer to the competition? Turns out it is a bit of both. Digital Games Studio wants to provide a new tool, across all platforms (Arena is being developed on the Unity engine), to give players more choices when it comes to playing Magic. The constantly growing streaming community was also a factor in the decision to create Arena, and I can see why: if I were to browse the Twitch page for Arena, it would definitely be more visually appealing than its Magic Online counterpart – there is a lot going on the screen, but it always gives a feeling that something is going on, as opposed to MTGO's black and grey background.

Fear not, though. Magic Online is not going anywhere, as Wizards is fully aware of its value to the community of Magic players, what with Leagues, Draft and MOCS as well as the pros looking to test for the Pro Tour. On that topic, Chase and I also discussed the fact that MTGO provides a rare opportunity to qualify for the Pro Tour to folks who do not necessarily have a way to get to a PPTQ/PTQ – this is another huge factor in and of itself to maintain the program as the premier destination for competitive online play. Still, in the months ahead, with the help from all players, beginners to pros, Wizards fully hopes to make Arena one of the tools players can use to improve from FNM grinder to Pro Tour regular.

If you are looking to sign up for the MTG Arena closed beta, you can follow this link. Quiet Speculation has promo codes for priority signups that we will be giving away soon!

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Guillaume Robert

Guillaume started playing Magic with the release of Invasion, and has always been intrigued by the metagaming aspect of all formats. A proud member of #TeamStorm (can you count to 19?), Guillaume is a Data Analyst for the Quiet Speculation Podcast and likes coding tools for Magic streaming.

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Insider: How the First Iconic Masters Spoilers Will Impact MTGO

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Hello, everyone.

This week, the Iconic Masters (IMA) spoilers started. Generally, cards that get reprinted will drop in price. Wizards has noted that we will be seeing Angels, Sphinxes, Dragons, Demons, and Hydras in this set. When the full spoiler is out, cards from those tribes that were not reprinted will have a potential to go up in price due to demand from new tribal players.

Notable Reprints

As I'm writting, the following cards are included in the IMA spoiler:

  • The five Kamigawa Dragons: Yosei, the Morning Star, Keiga, the Tide Star, Kokusho, the Evening Star, Ryusei, the Falling Star, and Jugan, the Rising Star
  • Primeval Titan
  • Restoration Angel
  • Thoughtseize
  • Cryptic Command
  • Aether Vial
  • Mishra's Bauble
  • Grove of the Burnwillows
  • Horizon Canopy
  • Ancestral Vision

Let's take a deeper look at these cards.

The reprint of the five Kamigawa Dragons was predicted by many. Wizards is giving them new artwork, probably to make them a little bit exciting, but otherwise they are quite meh.

These Dragons have been reprinted at least once before, in the original Modern Masters. The price for the non-premium versions shouldn't see much difference, but you may aim for the foil version of these Dragons with the new artwork.

This is the third time Primeval Titan has been reprinted. Currently, the average price for "Prime Time" from its three printings is around 19 tix. We can expect this price to drop up to and through the drafting of IMA on MTGO. I think the Titan will stay at a relatively low price while drafting is available, then increase when drafts have ended. Remember that Amulet Bloom and Titan Shift have been popular in the MTGO Modern metagame.

Restoration Angel was reprinted in MM3 not long ago, and the card is not very popular in Modern to begin with. She rarely appear as a four-of in the format. With IMA's release, I expect the price of Restoration Angel to go downhill. It's just not worth investing in this card.

According to the spoilers, the art for the IMA version of Thoughtseize will be the same as the Lorwyn version. However, the price for Lorwyn Thoughtseize has not changed much as of this writing. This is probably because players on MTGO tend to play with the cheaper versions of each cards, which is why the price of the Theros version is dropping rapidly. This card has been a staple of multiple eternal formats; thus, I suggest keeping them on your watchlist just in case.

In the long run, I think the Lorwyn version is going to lose out in value as the latest version has the same art, and as I said, most Constructed format players online have access to the same art with a way cheaper price when these hit the shelf. If you are going to stock up on Thoughtseize, I suggest you focus on the Theros version, because obviously they are cheaper right now and have a higher potential for profit after the IMA events end.

Another card that has been reprinted multiple times. The price for Cryptic Command was about 15 tickets before it was announced as being in MM2. Since then, this card rarely has rarely gone above 10 tickets. Thus, I think this card is not worth investing in.

Aether Vial is the main component of some Modern creature aggro decks like Death and Taxes, Slivers and Merfolk. Before it was confirmed to be included in IMA, copies were about 10 tix each on MTGO, and have since dropped by about 1 to 2 tickets. Keep an eye on the price in the coming weeks; if it keeps dropping, investing in a playset or speculation copies may be worth it. Aether Vial creature decks are always there, and I don't see them dropping in popularity any time soon.

One of the most expensive uncommon in Modern is being reprinted in IMA, and surprisingly, it will remain an uncommon. This means that when IMA releases, the market supply of this card will increase greatly. It's hard to predict what will happen when IMA is released, but I think it will be at least a good opportunity to get your own playsets for your collections. As for speculation, if this card drops to a point below 3 tix, it's probably safe to get some as long-term specs.

Grove of the Burnwillows was reprinted in From the Vault: Realms a very long time ago. This card is mainly played in Modern and Legacy. Its interaction with Punishing Fire is probably what makes it Iconic. The price of this card has been fluctuating between 55 and 13 tickets for the past two years. I think with the reprint, it's going to drop to somewhere between 13 and 18 tickets. Based on the price trend of Grove, I think the 13- to 18-range is a good opportunity to get some copies for investment. I think the price of Grove will stabilize at above 20 tickets again in year 2018.

Similar to Grove of the Burnwillows, this card was reprinted as an Expedition foil and appears in most green-white decks in Modern. For a green or white deck, a card that generates both colored mana and offers an extra card late in the game is huge. Cycling lands from recent set can only be a budget replacement of Canopy because: 1) they comes into play tapped; 2) they require 1 more mana to cycle for a card. However the current price is still too high for us to buy in. If this card drops to a point below 30 tickets, then we can consider buying a few.

This card was unbanned in Modern a year ago and was played in certain control decks. However, it's not very popular in Modern ,and it's price is at its low point this season. With the reprint confirmed, its price further decreased by at least 5 tickets. I think for this card to grow in price, it needs to appear at multiple decks in Modern or Legacy, which is not likely to happen because both of these formats are so fast right now that this slower card isn't really as relevant as it could be. Being said that, I still think Ancestral Vision is worth investing on if the price drops below 5 tickets, for a longer-term specs watching for when the metagame does allow for this card.


Alright, that's all for these week. Next week, we will continue our analysis on Ixalan and IMA depending on what is spoiled. So far, I've been using a straightforward approach in my articles, and this is my sixth article on QS. If you all have comments, questions, requests, or suggestions for my articles, I'd love to continue improving them. Do let me know in the comment section below if you have anything to say! Thank you for reading, guys, and I'll see you all again soon.

–Adrian, signing out

Insider: MTGO Market Report for September 13th, 2017

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerances and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of September 11, 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead. Although both Aether Revolt (AER) and Kaladesh (KLD) are no longer available for redemption, their prices will continue to be tracked while they are in Standard.

 

Standard

As we get closer to the release of Ixalan (XLN) and Standard rotation, the price bottoms on the rotating sets are in sight. Below is a chart I've produced in the past, updated with the latest data points for Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) and Battle for Zendikar (BFZ). The price declines are moderating, and in the past week these sets have fluctuated around the 20 tix mark, with a few dips below that level. Buyers are stepping into the market and further large price declines are remote. Although the precise bottom is only visible in hindsight, all signs point to it being a fine time to start accumulating these two sets. Speculators who like to minimize their risk through diversification can happily start adding complete sets of SOI and BFZ into their portfolio, as I have started doing.

On the singles front, players looking to fill out their decks should have no concerns about picking up Modern staples like Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger at current prices.  Players can wait on more fringe cards like Traverse the Uvenwald, though, as a wave of selling is bound to occur once XLN is released.

The next chart covers Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) and Eldritch Moon (EMN) in advance of rotation. Price declines for OGW are slowing down and it looks like it is putting in a bottom in the 30- to 35-tix range. EMN took a big tumble this week, and it looks ready to continue dropping in price. Both sets are tracking the price path of Journey into Nyx (JOU) quite well, and that set bottomed at 40 tix in the week after it rotated out of Standard.

The market hasn't really started buying these two sets yet, though. Historically, large sets have been a better bet to see demand from redeemers, so speculators might be avoiding these sets as a result. There's also the price. Both are priced higher than the the large sets, and so they don't "feel" like they are on sale.

Relative to paper prices, both OGW and EMN are good value. I have started adding them into the Market Report portfolio, though I have avoided buying complete sets of EMN. Liliana, the Last Hope is still a 20-tix card that I think it will drop into the 15- to 18-tix range in the next two weeks. Regardless of whether it falls in price or not, I will round out my set purchases after the release of XLN. It's important to acknowledge that buying the pool of value that the complete set represents is important. Trying to pick winners and avoid losers will increase the risk of speculating on these sets. There are potentially higher rewards, but I prefer to take a diversified approach. Being approximately right on the timing is a lot easier if you are just considering how the prices of complete sets will evolve over the coming months.

Modern

The Magic world got its first look at Iconic Masters (IMA) this past weekend as players got to play Sealed Deck with the unrevealed cards at HASCON. IMA has a bevy of Modern reprints, and the market has been digesting this news in the past few days. Modern staples reprinted include Primeval Titan, Blood Moon, Thoughtseize, and Cryptic Command. Two reprints of note are Horizon Canopy and Mishra's Bauble, which both have high prices on MTGO based on their scarcity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thoughtseize

Although the exact details of how this set will be released on MTGO have not yet been announced, it will be coming in November. I expect a three-week release window similar to how Modern Masters 2017 (MM3) was released. The set looks like a lot of fun, so expect heavy drafting, and needless to say, the reprinted cards will be available at a good price when the set is being opened in Draft.

Standard Boosters

The price of an Amonkhet (AKH) block Draft set tumbled this week, dropping from 9.7 tix all the way down to 7.1 tix. Although we are a little under two weeks away from the release of XLN on MTGO, the market is looking ahead to drafting triple XLN and forgetting about AKH and Hour of Devastation (HOU) draft for a while. Based on how the price of AER and KLD boosters evolved after AKH was released in the spring, speculators should be getting their tix ready to buy a few boosters.

The absolute price bottom on a Draft set of AKH block will occur in the days after XLN is released, but 7 tix is a fine price to look out for right now. I expect a Draft set of AKH block to be priced at over 9 tix by the end of February.

A 2 tix profit per Draft set over the course of five months is a very respectable profit. It takes a little effort to buy and sell these, but with a low spread, a ton of liquidity, and strong economic fundamentals backing up this strategy, speculating on AKH and HOU boosters is highly recommended for those with a little patience. It's a strategy that doesn't need to be monitored; you can buy these, forget about them, and then sell them in early 2018 for a profit.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aether Hub

For Draft sets of KLD block, the future is not so bright. After XLN is released, KLD block Draft will get bumped from the Draft queues and there will be no sanctioned play available with these boosters. AER boosters are at 3.5 tix and KLD boosters are 1.9 tix, but these prices will not hold without Draft support. Look for these to start drifting down and approaching their expected value as the winter approaches. KLD might drop to 1.5 tix or lower, but AER is definitely heading down to 2.5 tix or less. Any excess AER or KLD boosters in your account should be sold at current prices as soon as possible.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent trades, please check out the portfolio. This week I started buying sets that are rotating out of Standard, specifically BFZ, OGW and SOI. EMN will be added to the list when it gets closer to 40 tix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

Buying complete sets is a way to reduce single-card risk through diversification. The actual cards that see more or less play in Modern don't matter. What matters is that each of these sets represents a pool of value that can be turned into paper sets through redemption. As long as these sets are redeemable, a complete set will have price support. The redemption guarantee date for these sets ends in November, but historically, sets have been available for redemption up until the redemption cutoff date.

Once the release of XLN is in the rearview mirror, markets will start normalizing in both paper and on MTGO. Redeemers will start to think about stocking up on the rotated sets to take advantage of the price discount on MTGO. Demand from Modern players will start to push up the price of the Modern-playable cards from these sets as we head into the winter. Keep in mind that the Constructed format for Pro Tour Rivals of Ixalan will be Modern, so there will be an extra spotlight on that format over the next six months.

Insider: Casual Mythics & Price Distribution in Ixalan

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Welcome back, readers!

Ixalan spoilers have started up again (after that initial leak) and we're seeing some fun-looking new cards, especially for the casual circles. This is unsurprising as both Pirates and Dinosaurs are tribes that really appeal to casual players.

One interesting trend I've noticed is that the mythics in the set so far seem to have a much higher converted mana cost than usual, and many look very unlikely to see play in competitive formats. This is a major shift from what we've seen previously—in recent sets a lot of the pushed cards ended up at the mythic rarity, including many planeswalkers.

As of typing this, we have 13 mythics spoiled so far with an average converted mana cost (CMC) of 5.92. Look at how that compares to the average mythic CMC of the other sets currently legal in Standard:

Set Average Mythic CMC
Ixalan 5.92
Hour of Devastation 5.50
Amonkhet 3.80
Aether Revolt 5.16
Kaladesh 4.86
Eldritch Moon 5.35
Shadows over Innistrad 4.77
Oath of the Gatewatch 5.08
Battle for Zendikar 5.06

As you can see, Ixalan is the highest so far, but what is even more telling is that three of these sets (BFZ, Oath, and Eldritch Moon) had giant Eldrazi creatures with very high CMCs that greatly affected the averages. If we remove the Eldrazi from those sets, the average drops even further.

Eldritch Moon 4.33
Oath of the Gatewatch 4.63
Battle for Zendikar 4.71

Looking at Ixalan, so far we have four mythics below the average, and of those Jace is the only one I think might see continual tournament play. The important point to keep in mind here is that in the previous Standard-legal sets, the majority of the higher-cost mythics (six or greater) did not see play, with the exception being in decks that could either ramp or cheat them out. This does not bode well for Ixalan mythics unless Standard as a whole slows down dramatically.

So what does all this mean? It means that as of writing, a large number of the Ixalan mythics will see little to no demand from the competitive Standard environment, which is typically the driving factor behind new card prices.

If this occurs, and there isn't a desire to crack open a lot of product by stores for the chase mythics, then we could very well see one of two things: either the value of the set as a whole will be lower than previous Standard sets, or the rares will carry more of the value behind the set. Both of these are likely good for competitive Standard players as the price ceiling for regular rares is much lower than mythics, so either one implies a lower cost of deck ownership.

Lets look at these two paths and figure out how we can benefit from them financially.

Low Total Set Value

If the overall value of Ixalan is low we can expect fewer pre-orders and likely less product initially opened. This means that early on any Ixalan cards that do find a Standard home may have a higher price ceiling due to scarcity.

Remember that out of the gates Ixalan Standard will have a significantly smaller card pool as we have an exodus of four sets (BFZ, OGW, SOI, and EMN). Hyper-aggressive decks often have a lot of success in these types of "new" Standard environments. We recently saw Ramunap Red win a Pro Tour, and while it does lose some key cards, the shell remains intact.

This means we will likely see a resurgence in Ramunap Red and thus a rise in prices for its non-rotating staples. We've already seen Soul-Scar Mage double up in value in the past few months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul-Scar Mage

The other takeaway is that if the value of the set ends up being low we will likely see fewer sets redeemed off of MTGO, leading to even more scarcity. In this context, buying up many of these casually-aimed mythics when they bottom out could be a good medium-term (one-to-two-year) play.

Lastly, as value is often tied hand in hand with power level, if the set as a whole is considered under-powered then players are more likely to use cards from other sets (to maximize their power level within their 60 cards). That means we could see a rise in older Standard staples like Heart of Kiran.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Heart of Kiran

Rares Soaking Up the Value

If the rares are the cards that end up in the competitive decks, then they will likely all maintain a slightly higher price point than what we're used to seeing. Competitive Standard rares typically fall in the $3-5 range after any initial hype settles down; I wouldn't be surprised to see the best Ixalan rares sitting in the $4-7 range.

If the money is spread out more (especially at regular rarity), it will be interesting to see whether more casual players end up drafting. Unless you really value the experience of drafting, then quite often you end up in the red doing it. When most of the value of a set is tied to the mythics you are far less likely to open something valuable. If instead the money cards are at regular rarity you have a higher likelihood of breaking even (or at least coming closer than you normally would).

To prove it mathematically we can look at it like this:

If we look at something like Amonkhet (using prices around release, so we can include the scarcity inflation), we see that the average mythic value was $7.05 and the average rare value was $0.97. So our Estimated Value in a draft was $5.19.

Now look at Ixalan's current prices (which again are inflated due to scarcity). We have a similar average mythic value of $7.07, but our rare average is currently $2.32, which means an estimated value from a draft is $8.74. So this clearly shows that when the sample size is small (like it is in a draft) a higher average rare value has a much greater impact on one's estimated value.

The other thing to keep in mind with these calculations is that they are based on averages. If we look at the current retail price of the Ixalan mythics we see a pretty uneven spread:

Mythic Retail Price
Admiral Beckett Brass $2.80
Boneyard Parley $1.97
Carnage Tyrant $10.26
Gishath, Sun's Avatar $6.02
Huatli, Warrior Poet $17.86
Jace, Cunning Castaway $18.55
Overflowing Insight $3.50
Rowdy Crew $2.47
Star of Extinction $2.09
Tishana, Voice of Thunder $3.23
Vona, Butcher of Magan $12.52
Wakening Sun's Avatar $3.58

Currently only four are above the average, which means they are propping it up. This adds some complexity to understanding the Estimated Value, because while your likelihood of opening a mythic is around 1/8, the chances it's worth more than $7.07 is in fact more like 45 in 1000. We have to consider this when our sample size—three packs—is very small. It's a bigger problem in sets in which only a few key mythics prop up the average mythic value.

We did all this because I have seen from personal experience that stores often get more first-time or casual drafters when the set's regular rares are more valuable. I specifically recall how my LGS had a ton of people for every Zendikar draft (we always had two pods), whereas previous Shards of Alara drafts would be lucky to fire at all.

Some of this could be due to very different draft formats, however, I would constantly hear players squeal when they opened a fetchland. Truth be told, I never missed a Zendikar draft for similar reasons—you had three packs to open one of five rares (the fetchlands) and your draft was paid for regardless of how well you did.

Sure, there were a lot of bulk rares in the set (Halo Hunter, anyone?), but the point was that when players feel like they have a much easier time "winning the lottery," they are far more likely to play. So it will be interesting to see if more packs get opened via draft than would normally get opened via stores trying to fill pre-orders.

Conclusion

Overall, the mythics in the set seem to be low on the power-level scale and I don't expect many to drastically altar Standard. However, the rares in the set seem to be making up for this reduced power level and it definitely seems like WoTC aimed this set more towards the casual crowd than the hardcore competitive.

Back on the PPTQ Grind: Week Six

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An unexpected problem with managing a long running series is the intro. This is the sixth time I've had to report that I didn't get there and I'm worried that I'm just retreading old ground at this point. My only hope is that by pointing this fact out and turning it into my intro, I can claim that it's making some meta-pretentious, post-modernist ironic statement about writing style and reader expectations. So that's exactly what I did; please buy it.

After my terrible performance last weekend, I was determined to redeem myself this week. I took extra precautions to ensure that I was on top of my game and spent more time than normal tuning and practicing with my deck. It very nearly paid off. However, it wasn't my weekend. I'm disappointed, but I can't be too upset. It's been said before that sometimes it's just your tournament and everything goes your way. That was true for the winner of this PPTQ, and I can't really argue with fate. I'll just cross my fingers and hope next week it's my turn to run hot.

In other news, Ixalan spoilers continue to roll in, and I'm starting to warm to UG Merfolk. I said that it would take a green Cursecatcher and/or Silvergill Adept for me to consider it, and that partially happened. Merfolk Branchwalker is not Adept, but it is similar enough to have me interested.

Getting a land off the top is fine, but I'm having a hard time evaluating the rest of the ability. In the early game, I imagine you'll take anything you see and won't be binning anything. Thus you're just giving your opponent free information in exchange for a power/toughness boost. However, later on you'll be happy to mill away a useless Aether Vial or Cursecatcher. Explore looks close to cantripping, so I'm definitely going to look into the inclusion. Of course, the problem with UG has always been how to actually fit Collected Company into Merfolk, and nobody's solved that to my knowledge.

The Deck

Once again, I played UW Spirits. This should come as no surprise. I did go to the tournament site with my UW Control and Death and Taxes shells, but I wasn't expecting to actually play them. The tournament was held in Longmont, which is roughly halfway between Boulder and Ft. Collins. Longtime readers will know that Boulder is known for combo and control, while my experience with the northern crowd told me to expect creature combo and Blood Moon. Spirits is best in those matchups, and it would take seeing a lot of Tron for me to change decks.

UW Spirits, by David Ernenwein (2nd Place, PPTQ)

Creatures

4 Mausoleum Wanderer
4 Selfless Spirit
4 Rattlechains
2 Phantasmal Image
4 Reflector Mage
4 Spell Queller
4 Drogskol Captain
2 Ninja of the Deep Hours

Artifacts

4 Chalice of the Void
4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

2 Detention Sphere

Lands

3 Seachrome Coast
3 Hallowed Fountain
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Flooded Strand
1 Moorland Haunt
4 Island
3 Plains

Sideboard

4 Unified Will
3 Rest in Peace
3 Supreme Verdict
3 Stony Silence
2 Meddling Mage

I mentioned last week that I was intending to change up the land base and sideboard. I've generally been happy with my sideboard except for Grafdigger's Cage, and this was especially true if the combo players turned up in force. Don't know if you've heard, but Meddling Mage is really good against combo decks. Ethersworn Canonist is better against Storm and Ad Nauseam, but Boulder combo tends to be more like Bubble Hulk: setup-heavy, single-card combo rather than explosive turns. Cage is great against primarily Company decks, and mediocre as graveyard hate. Delve and Tarmogoyf have been more popular recently and RiP is phenomenal there. I wasn't expecting much Company anymore, so I went for the more consistently useful hate card.

As for the maindeck, I'm still generally happy with my configuration. Ninja is a little weak, but it plays so well with everything else I'm doing that I'm willing to accept this. The looks I get are also great value. The only problem I've had is my land base. The deck really needs 22 lands, but drawing too many is a death sentence. With only Ninja for card draw, when you need to hit three lands and often want five or six, flooding is still a problem. I tried several different fetchland manabases and eventually settled on the four Strands. Running more fetches made it noticeably harder to hit five mana and made the deck more vulnerable to burn. Not by a lot, but enough that I don't thinks it's worthwhile, given the first problem.

The Tournament

If nothing else, dedicatedly grinding PPTQs takes me to places and stores that I never knew existed. I'd never heard of the site until it appeared in the PPTQ listings, and I don't often have any reason to travel north of Boulder. You live in a state but don't usually see much of it, so this is a nice bonus.

The turnout was pretty low; only 25. I don't know if the local scene is really small or if the word didn't get out, but that's way down from every other PPTQ this year. I do know that a lot of the usual crowd including much of the Boulder crew weren't present. Apparently a number of them have been skipping other responsibilities, nerdy and otherwise, to grind PPTQs and were now in trouble. This deprived me of planned-for good matches, but ultimately wasn't a problem as I went 3-0-2 in the Swiss, double drawing into the Top 8. I just got crushed in the finals to end in second place.

There were a lot of unusual decks at this PPTQ, the Top 8 consisting of RG Ponza, Breach Titan, Naya Zoo, Bant Humans (same player and deck from week two), my UW Spirits, Death and Taxes, Mono-Blue Favorable Winds, and Mono-Blue Grand Architect. The judge was perplexed, especially about my Ninja. In truth, I saw three Death's Shadow and two Eldrazi Tron decks at the tournament, but they all fell short. There were a number of Chord of Calling decks too, but Jeff Hoogland wasn't piloting them, so they did poorly. Now that players have had time to adjust, they're just no longer that threatening.

What Happened?

Partially I ran pretty well and partially I had good pairings. There were a lot more decks than usual where Chalice of the Void was backbreaking. This led to me having fairly easy games. When Chalice wasn't great, flying was. The only problem was my weakness to Valakut, the Molten Pinnace, which beat me in the finals. I hit Grixis Shadow, Saheeli Evolution, and the Mono-Blue Winds deck in the Swiss, then Bant Humans, Grand Architect, and finally Titan. Like I said earlier, odd deck turnout. I really can't say much about my own play, as there weren't a lot of complicated situations or judgement calls to make. For the most part my opponent and I just played out our cards and whoever had the best grip won. Somehow this ended with me being advantaged even though I was on the draw for most of the day. Also, I really only had one close game. Somebody got blown out every other game.

I did start on the play against Grixis Shadow round one, but due to a one-drop-heavy hand I had to delay playing my Chalice for one. This gave my opponent the opportunity to Thought Scour into Tasigur, which came close to racing me. It didn't, as I was free to dump Spirits into play and then counter the Kolaghan's Command that would have gotten him back into the game. Game two he had a great draw with Liliana, the Last Hope and double Death's Shadow and I was crushed. Game three I have the turn-two Chalice, and he has the Tasigur. But I break serve with Reflector Mage and he never catches up. I drew three Chalices that game, discarding one and having the second destroyed by Command, which took his whole turn of mana and let me stick the third one to lock things up.

Against Saheeli Evolution he had the turn-four combo every game but I kept breaking it up by either flashing in threats to kill Saheeli Rai or Detention Sphereing her away. At that point he became a fairly underpowered Kiki-Chord deck and games one and three I just flew past him to victory. Game two I bricked off long enough that he stabilized and crushed me. Eldritch Evolution was made into a liability several times thanks to Wanderer and Spell Queller.

If you've never heard of the Favorable Winds deck it's filled with one-mana blue fliers like Judge's Familiar and Jace's Phantasm, which it turns into real cards with Smuggler's Copter and the eponymous enchantment. This comes together for him game one and I get swamped. Games two and three this does not happen, as he doesn't get his enhancers and I have Chalice for one to lock out his creatures. I'm just bigger than him and force my way through. The fact that his only relevant interaction for my deck was Psionic Blast was a factor. It obviously worked, as he made Top 8, but man that is going deep. I double-draw because I'm starving and have amazing breakers.

The quarterfinal against Humans went basically the same as the other aggressive matchups. Game one I curve out and have a Spell Queller for his Thalia's Lieutenant. Game two his Champion of the Parish gets huge and I don't see Reflector Mage. Game three I curve out again. Against the Architect deck there is one interesting play where I use Wanderer triggers to trick my opponent into sacrificing his Walking Ballista for no value after dumping his entire hand. This lets me win the race with my 2/1s when I probably should have lost. Game three goes long because I keep a control hand with two Supreme Verdicts and don't see much action, but he's out of it by the second Verdict. My two games against Titan are similarly uninteresting, as I don't really have any relevant interaction for game one and game two I mulliganed to a very mediocre five.

Not that I'm too surprised. I knew I would probably lose if I hit Breach Titan and was hoping its pilot would fall to Ponza in the quarterfinals. He didn't, for the second time that tournament. He even told me that he'd gotten past three other Blood Moon decks that day. Sometimes, the cards are just on your side and you run hot.

Lessons Learned

The main takeaway I had was how open Modern is and the unpredictability of the PPTQ meta. I saw plenty of known decks in the room, including Storm and UW Control, but mainly hit fringe decks. I am of course guilty of this as well (I get a lot of confused looks playing Rattlechains) but it is impressive.

On the Deck

I really didn't learn very much from this tournament. The deck displayed all the strengths and weaknesses I knew about, both in terms of matchups and the overall strategy. The main thing I'm really working on is the sideboard. I'm vulnerable to decks where Chalice is bad. Against decks that go bigger I lack relevant interaction, while against other Cavern of Souls decks I easily fall behind if they don't stumble. This has left me wondering if I need to refocus my sideboard to address this problem.

Moving Forward

I intended to stick with my current deck stable through the season, though I think Merfolk will work its way back into the lineup. If mono-blue decks keep showing up in force, it's perfect. Affinity and Tron, once metagame mainstays, have vanished alongside Company decks so the format is far more favorable now than it was in August. I'll have to see what my scouting shows.

...And On...

Still a few weeks left in the season for me and I will definitely keep trying to make it. Hopefully, it will be this week.

One note before I go: the Iconic Masters release notes have a very significant ruling, and easily the most important thing to come out of a set that I found disappointing. Yes, Grove of the Burnwillows and Horizon Canopy are welcome reprints, but there's been a subtle change to how Blood Moon effects work. Before, you had to play by any rules-setting effects of your soon-to-be-Mountains with Blood Moon around. This meant that you still had to pay two life for your shock-mountains and pick a creature type for Cavern. Now, those don't happen. This makes it free to play your Mountains, but it also means that when the Moon rises, your Cavern of Souls doesn't make anything uncounterable. Adjust your play accordingly.

Insider: Maximizing the QS Insider Discord

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If we were in the seventh inning of the Reserved List buyouts last week, then we’re certainly into extra innings this week. We’ve gone from having six to eight buyouts a day to a trickle of one or two modest jumps. Yesterday brought a spike in Power Artifact and a re-spike of Ring of Immortals, for example.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ring of Immortals

At this point, new long-term plateaus are gradually being established. The beautiful thing is the fact that all these cards—even the “unplayable ones”—will reside at a higher price point from now on. Even unplayable cards like Spiritual Sanctuary have buylist prices triple what they were just one month ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spiritual Sanctuary

Anyone who has ignored these buyouts in their publications or has written them off completely has done a disservice to their followers. It’s the equivalent of hosting a show on the stock market and refusing to discuss the hottest sector (e.g. Cloud Technology, Bitcoin) because you don’t believe in the movement. How can you deliver the most important and actionable financial news if you choose to ignore one of the most lucrative trends of 2017? Beats me, but I’ll get off my soapbox.

In all honesty, there’s little more for me to say about these trends. I’ve invested thousands of words in multiple articles detailing my strategy and buying/selling approaches when dealing with Reserved List cards. This week I want to go in a completely different direction…

The New Most Valuable Resource?

One of the most useful MTG finance sites (besides Quiet Speculation of course) that I visit on a regular basis is MTG Stocks. Their Interests page proves to be the defining website for tracking price movement for individual cards. If something is getting bought out or if a new trend is emerging, this site will be like a beacon flashing its light on resulting price changes. For this reason, I visit the site on a daily basis.

There’s a new site that I’ve begun visiting on a daily basis now, and it is controlled by our very own Quiet Speculation. It’s behind the paywall, and this helps screen out dysfunctional content from overzealous (and impolite) Reddit-type posters. This site is professionally maintained and houses up-to-the-minute actionable information across all formats and geographies.

I'm talking, of course, about the Quiet Speculation Discord.

This may seem like an advertisement, but I’d prefer to color it as a testimonial. Not because I want to generate more subscribers for the site (though that would be nice), but because the site has truly been value-additive to my MTG finance hobby.

There have been numerous occasions where information gleaned from the QS Discord in a timely manner has led to profitable opportunity. In addition, the community being formed within the Discord fosters cooperation and support—quite the refreshing take on the hobby after dealing with all the negativity coming from Twitter these days.

Let me share a couple specific examples to illustrate my points.

Pointing Out Underpriced Cards

Within the QS Discord chat, we’re all working together to help each other make and save money from MTG finance. Of course we’re all looking out for number one, but there’s also a sense of community that leads to selfless acts of generosity. One way this manifests itself is in how people report on where to find good prices on certain cards.

For example, one Insider posted on Friday that they found a listing for an MP Sandals of Abdallah for around $4.50. They were unable to buy it profitably due to their geography, so they shared the information for someone else to capitalize upon. Given that Sandals buylists to Card Kingdom for $13, an MP copy would likely fetch $6.50.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sandals of Abdallah

While $2 profit isn’t going to change anyone’s lives, I instantly bought the card because I was already planning to ship Card Kingdom a buylist order in the coming days. Within two minutes the card was purchased, and now I’ll enjoy another couple bucks’ profit come time to submit my buylist.

Something a little more lucrative happened a few weeks ago. People were watching all of the Reserved List foils skyrocket and they were scouring the internet for any remaining opportunities. A fellow Insider made a comment that they were targeting judge foil Morphlings in the $10 range. I looked across the internet, but I couldn’t find any copies for less than $15. I said as much, and the Insider sent me a link to where they found copies listed at $10. Respectfully, I purchased only three copies out of the dozen or so they had listed, careful to leave a few behind for others.

Sale Reporting

The information people share about where to find good prices on cards can directly lead to profits. That’s always nice, but such opportunities don’t arise every day. Despite this, there are still many ways of garnering useful information about the MTG market to gain a competitive edge. One thread of the Discord I pay close attention to is the one on Sales Reporting.

This isn’t a “humble brag” thread meant to show off wealth or make people regret not participating in a given spec. That kind of negativity plagues Twitter, and there’s no place for it among the QS Insiders. This is a place where people share data on sales they’ve made using neutral, informative language. When you strip out the bragging component, such data is extremely valuable when understanding what cards are selling for and at what rate.

Some recent examples:

  • “Sold a foil Stonybrook Banneret for $6.”
  • “Sold a played Exorcist for $4.75.”
  • “Just sold 2 NM Legends Concordant Crossroads on TCG for $68.”
  • “My LP Singing Trees finally sold for $90 ea, also sold a playset of Rapid Fires at $10s…also some LP Citanul Druids for $7…same buyer for all 3.”
There was an error retrieving a chart for Citanul Druid

Do you see how this information could be useful? The information is helpful when trying to decide whether or not you want to move into a spec. Or if you have copies you’re looking to sell, you have a frame of reference for what others are selling their copies for.

I also like this information because it’s cross-platform; some people sell on eBay, some sell on TCGplayer, and some run shops and sell locally. Since I only sell on eBay, it’s helpful to see what kind of prices people are getting on TCGplayer because sometimes (especially on older cards) there is a large price discrepancy between the two.

Insider Coverage

The last benefit of the QS Insider Discord I want to explain in depth is the Insider Coverage. We all get the email alerts from Chaz during a Pro Tour or some other major MTG event. These are helpful and well-written; however, they aren’t real-time.

Enter: the QSCoverage thread in the Discord.

We have QS Insiders doing thorough coverage of major events and reporting their observations live-time in the QS Discord. The most recent example of this was at Hascon, where we had a QS Insider snap pictures of many of the Iconic Masters cards as they were being spoiled/opened. Twitter caught many of these too, but it was very helpful to have all the information consolidated in a single thread. Additionally, others add commentary around the spoiled cards that contain useful finance tidbits.

Here are a few unprompted remarks about the coverage from Hascon last weekend:

  • “The coverage has been phenomenal. I have to confess that I stopped my monthly subscription a few weeks ago. But, between the Trader Tools enhancements and the coverage, I am thoroughly impressed. I can't afford not to be a member. Kudos all around.”
  • “It was quite delightful.”
  • “Yeah, because of [Insider Coverage], I was able to move out of my foil Supreme Verdicts and my non-foil Bloodghasts very quickly, in time to actually come out slightly ahead (with store credit). Phew!”
There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodghast

The benefits are loud and clear. The coverage is actionable and specific. Best believe this sort of coverage will be repeated many times at major events going forward.

Wrapping It Up

There are many other benefits to the QS Insider Discord. There’s an active buy/sell/trade thread. There’s a thread that focuses on price increases, which can be a helpful way to get real-time pricing information in advance of the morning refresh of MTG Stocks. There’s also a place to share feedback and technical issues. It’s a well-rounded community that focuses on MTG finance in real-time.

The best way to benefit from this resource is to stay actively engaged and check back in a few times a day. This may seem like a tall task, but the benefits are clearly there. It’s one of those “you get out what you put in” type of services—if you’re truly serious about using MTG to make money or to make the hobby cheaper, then the time investment is well worth it.

Thanks to the chat there, I’ve increased my engagement with the community while simultaneously boosting profits. It may sound too good to be true, but I’ve tried to provide distinct examples of where the tool helped me make more money. I’ve also returned the favor by reporting on good deals I find and trends I uncover. It’s a thriving community with many contributors aligned to a singular purpose.

If two minds are better than one, then a couple dozen minds are certainly far superior. In today’s world of connectivity, there’s no reason to go solo when delving into MTG finance. Leveraging the hive mind is the next logical step up, and I strongly encourage those of you not involved to stop by, speak up, and take advantage of this service that you’re already paying for by being a QS Insider!

…

Sigbits

  • Of course I still have a couple Reserved List cards on my radar that I want to share! Let’s begin with Ramses Overdark, a rare out of Legends. Star City Games is sold out at $14.99 and I have seen copies gradually bleed out of the market. There are 19 sellers with English copies, and the cheapest LP will run you about $10. It won’t be long before someone takes notice of this low stock, makes a move, and it posts on MTG Stocks as $50.
  • The other Legends card I have my eye on (thanks to the Discord chat) is Boris Devilboon. The artwork on this card is so cool, so I was happy to grab a copy for myself. But looking at TCGplayer now, I see 11 copies for sale across nine vendors. You can still get an LP copy for under $10, but once the cheapest few are bought, that NM copy listed for $28 will cause a major spike in the market and catalyze panic-buying that will send prices higher.
  • The Saffron Olive effect strikes again! This time, Psionic Blast is getting hyped because he used the card in a deck on stream not long ago. It’s easy to forget this classic card is Modern-legal thanks to its Timeshifted version. It’s also useful in Old School MTG—a rare combination! Star City Games is sold out of Alpha, Beta, Unlimited, and Timeshifted copies. They have one SP foil in stock (which likely won’t last) and then a bunch of the underappreciated textless version. I’d keep an eye on this one!

Insider: Ixalan Spoilers, Part 2

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Dinosaurs and Pirates, oh my! As you may know, I am pumped about the weird and interesting world of Ixalan. If you missed last week's article, be sure to check that out for my first take on spoilers. For now, we have some more interesting new cards to discover.

As with any new set these days, we get a couple different versions of planeswalkers. We get our normal one for the set and then a powered down version in the planeswalker decks. Sometimes I think the planeswalker deck version looks better than the set version but usually that just means both of them aren't quite good enough for Standard. Even so, that might be the case for our newest walker Huatli.

Huatli, Warrior Poet

With a name like "Warrior Poet," this card just sounds like a low-powered planeswalker to me. I wish Wizards had switched the names on the two cards. Save the poet for the six-mana walker that everyone will most likely forget about.

Anyway, Huatli seems okay but a little too expensive at five mana. She starts at three loyalty and has a +2 that gives you life equal to the highest power of any of your creatures. That’s definitely decent if there are good Dinosaurs to play before five mana, but I haven’t seen many yet.

Her zero ability to make a 3/3 every turn is sweet, but I’m not sure we want to pay five mana to make a 3/3 and then hope they don’t die to Lightning Strikes. If she were in Standard right now, I’d play her in a heartbeat in Mardu Planeswalkers, but post-rotation, I don’t know that she has that much support.

As for her ultimate, she doesn’t really have one. I do like that you can use her like Chandra Nalaar with the added bonus of stopping blocking. I’m not sure you’ll have enough loyalty in order to use that ability effectively though. At first glance her abilities seem like they work well together because you can make a 3/3 which then gives you a creature to gain life from, but if you’re doing those things then you have to wait a while to be able to use the -X ability to get rid of their dudes.

I’d expect any five-mana planeswalker that doesn’t blow your mind with their power to start at a low price point in preorder season. Whatever price Huatli starts at, I’d expect her to drop lower after release. Her flavor as a dinosaur rider is awesome, but her playability is low at best.

Huatli, Dinosaur Knight and Sun-Blessed Mount

At first I was going to say that I like Huatli, Dinosaur Knight better than her set version, but none of the Planeswalker Deck planeswalkers have panned out as Standard-playable—why would that be different for this Boros walker? With the new legend rule, these two versions of Huatli seem like they’d work well together though. Probably just another casual card, like Jace, Ingenious Mind-Mage will be too.

Wanted Scoundrels

Wanted Scoundrels reminds me of Path to Exile or Thought-Knot Seer except instead of getting a removal spell or a creature attached to hand disruption, all we get is a 4/3 for two mana. I think I’d rather play Bloodrage Brawler and deal with that drawback.

Wanted Scoundrels might not be that bad, but the drawback is giving them two free mana for a turn. That seems like a steep price to pay in a format with good cheap removal spells like Fatal Push and the reprinted Lightning Strike. These Scoundrels have the Pirate creature type, though, so that might push them into playability.

Fathom Fleet Captain

The Pirate I’m most excited about so far is Fathom Fleet Captain. If you can curve a one-mana Pirate into this guy, you get a free 2/2 when you attack next turn. This is the normal course of most aggressive decks so rewarding a common line of play makes the payoff easy to achieve. You have to pay two mana for your 2/2 but that’s a lot of advantage from your two-drop. If Pirates are playable, I imagine this captain is one reason why.

The price of Pirates will largely be determined by the amount of play they see. Initially, some players will think these new Human variants are cool but the prices on this new type should be reasonably low unless a deck breaks out post-rotation.

Jace’s Sentinel

Planeswalker decks sometimes bring us Standard-playable cards. Jace's Sentinel might be the first to really break into Standard. For two mana you get a boring 1/3 Merfolk on its own. But once you have Jace in play, he becomes an unblockable 2/3 that most likely has synergy with the rest of your deck.

I’m excited about the new Merfolk. If they come together as a real deck, not only will the price of this card go up, but most likely the price of the planeswalker deck will go up as well.

Kumena’s Speaker

Kumena's Speaker is the Merfolk of my wildest dreams. First of all, putting Merfolk in green is brilliant because they are the guardians of the sea, and under the ocean is basically a forest of growth. Makes total sense to me to have green Merfolk, and that means another tribe that’s appealing for aggressive players like myself.

Kumena's Speaker is exactly the type of aggressive creature that I’m looking for when I’m building an aggressive deck. One-mana, two-power guys put early pressure on your opponent and allow you to commit fewer threats to the board. This is definitely a great start for a Standard Merfolk deck.

Kopala, Warden of Waves

Speaking of Merfolk, Kopala, Warden of Waves makes playing the tribe appealing due to the Kira, Great Glass-Spinner effect. He might only be a 2/2 but Kopala’s effect drastically slows down your opponent’s targeted removal. If Merfolk is a deck, I’m certain this new lord will be a part of that strategy.

Bishop of Rebirth

Sun Titan’s little bro, Bishop of Rebirth, is joining us for a while in Standard and that seems pretty cool. With Bishop we still get the three-mana restriction, but this time it’s creatures only. That seems fine by me and I could see this being a playable Standard staple. Sun Titan comparisons will likely hype this creature up to higher preorder prices, but I think it will still come down a bit after release.

Also, Bishop is apparently a Vampire and that means there are Vampires on this plane too. We just got done with black and white Zombies, but now we’ll have black and white Vampires also legal in Standard. That most likely means neither will be good enough because there’s no overlap between sets.

I was hoping for some new zombies to fill in the gaps that will be left in that strategy, but unfortunately that doesn't look like it will happen. Let’s look at some other vamps and see what our options are.

Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle

Well, Mavren Fein, Dusk Apostle might be a mouthful but we’ll certainly be saying his name in Standard for a while. We don’t get to pair this Vampire lord with any cool dudes from Innistrad, but any Vampires that trigger his creature-making ability will do just fine. There are some Vampires not rotating out like Gifted Aetherborn but we don’t have a whole lot to work with. Mavren is a great reward, but he does need a solid crew around him to make his abilitiy work. If the deck doesn’t pan out, this could be a great spec for Rivals of Ixalan.

Gishath, Sun’s Avatar

As far as Dinosaurs go, I got so excited about them that I watched Jurassic World the other night. Gishath, Sun's Avatar reminds me of the Indominous Rex from that movie. I don’t know if that was intentional or not. Maybe I’m just connecting dots that aren’t there, but they are both giant killer monsters and that’s exciting.

I’m still not convinced that Dinosaurs will be playable in Standard, but Gishath goes a long way towards convincing me. Basically, we need cheap dinos that are overpowered, similar to what Wizards did with Eldrazi. If we get the Dinosaur equivalent of Eldrazi Mimic, Thought-Knot Seer, or Reality Smasher, then we’ll definitely have some reasons to play this new creature type.

I have yet to see the super power-creeped card that’s a dino though. Wizards wanted those Eldrazi to see play so they made those three cards. They also wanted Vehicles to be in the limelight so they printed Smuggler's Copter and Heart of Kiran. Where is that card for Dinosaurs!?

I don’t think that card is Gishath, Sun's Avatar, but he is pretty amazing. This is the type of card that we could legitimately ramp to or even reanimate. He is a fine end goal to win the game with. The problem is what are we doing until we get to him.

Just looking at Gishath himself, we get a similarly ridiculous ability set to that of Samut, Voice of Dissent, but on a much larger body. 7/6 trample, vigilance, haste is not messing around. That’s going to mess someone up. You also get to flip a bunch of cards and put any Dinosaurs in play. That means you need to be playing other cards in that creature type, but we still have cards left to reveal from the set so it could happen.

Most likely this will be a cheaper mythic in the set, but it could be a casual all-star as well. Wizards recently announced errata for a small number of Dinosaurs from older sets to bring their creature type up to date. With those cards and the ones from Ixalan block, casual players are sure to try to build around the newest tribal type in Magic.

Gishath will likely be a key part of any of those decks. If he releases at a cheap price, I’ll definitely pick up a couple copies to sit on for a while.

Until Later

Ixalan is shaping up nicely and I’m pumped about the rotation this set will force upon Standard. Sure, Standard is balanced right now, but I’m excited for the fresh new feeling of the format. Standard has been pretty similar for a while now and kicking out four sets will definitely shift the format around a ton. I already have a ton of ideas for the new format and I can’t wait to see if they pan out.

That’ll do it for me today. I hope you’re enjoying the Ixalan spoiler coverage. I’ll have a prerelease vlog up on my YouTube channel and a ton of coverage of the set so make sure to click back over here for all that great stuff.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
MtgJedi on YouTube

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