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A week ago, if you asked anyone down on the street what the most dangerous deck in Modern was, two times out of ten you would get “Grixis Death’s Shadow” as your answer. The other eight would have no idea what you were talking about, and point you in the general direction of the nearest psych facility. You may agree or not. But after just one weekend of dominant play at Star City Games Charlotte, the Magic community collectively decided that Grixis Death’s Shadow was an oppressor that needed to be eradicated.
Now Grand Prix Vegas results are in, and the world has delivered its verdict: Grixis Death’s Shadow will be stopped at all costs. Today, we’ll be taking a look into the weekend’s results, and diving specifically into the psychology behind what inspires a community to "target" a deck. Let’s dive in.
Part One: GP Vegas by the Numbers
We’ll start with Grixis Death’s Shadow. No copies in the Top 8, two copies in the Top 16, four more in the Top 32. We’ve seen results like these before, so it’s not a stretch to infer that Grixis Death’s Shadow was a popular deck capable of putting up strong results that was inevitably brought down by a hostile field. Log this away—we’ll get back to it later when we start digging into lists. The second-biggest story, of course, is three copies of Affinity in the Top 4, with one taking home the trophy. I say second-biggest because if there’s any deck that could put up results like this without anyone batting an eye, it’s Affinity. Again, more on this later. Finally, even more perplexing is the absence of Dredge and Storm, replaced by Burn, Hatebears, and Taking Turns at the top tables. There’s a ton of information to break down here, so let’s start at the top.
Where Is Grixis?
At SCG Charlotte, Grixis Death’s Shadow players trimmed Lightning Bolt in an attempt to gain an edge in the mirror, and to help poor matchups like Eldrazi Tron. By doing so they opened up a weakness that previously was protected by Eldrazi Tron (it’s complicated) wherein small creature decks could capitalize assuming they could deal with Thought-Knot Seer. Enter Mirran Crusader. In a Lightning Bolt format, Mirran Crusader is beyond embarrassing, worse even than Geist of Saint Traft in a format full of blockers. Unfortunately for Grixis Death’s Shadow, the deck became too inbred, focusing on beating itself and fighting a myriad of hate from all angles of the format. It pushed itself too far down one end of the spectrum, until it found itself losing in areas that could have been easily protected.
Relic of Progenitus. Grafdigger's Cage. Dispatch. Vapor Snag. Rest in Peace. Affinity has no shortage of sideboard options to fight Grixis Death’s Shadow, but it can’t do it all itself. Ceremonious Rejection on top of Kolaghan's Command is too good, but with a little bit of help from the other decks in the format, Affinity can find itself brought back to relative parity. Grixis Death’s Shadow still probably wins the matchup, but in the end, that didn’t really matter. The field chose to attack Grixis Death’s Shadow, and by doing so, they ignored Affinity and removed one of the plugs holding it from flooding the metagame. Hence, three copies in the Top 4.
Hatebears
The new kid on the block this week wasn’t Counters Company, as some predicted, but Hatebears. Counters Company thrives in a Lightning Bolt-less format, but Fatal Push is just as effective against it. While it has methods of its own to fight Eldrazi Tron (the real format oppressor) Counters Company can’t claim the same level of resilience against Tron that Hatebears can. Leonin Arbiter and Ghost Quarter is nothing new, but it doesn’t need to be. If it ain't broke, don’t fix it, as someone said. Weathered Wayfarer is also old tech, but it shows that Eldrazi Tron is foremost in Hatebears’ mind as an archetype to target.
Untitled Deck
Hatebears gets a lot of hate (heh) and for good reason, but it’s hard to argue with what the archetype is bringing to the table right now. Grixis Death’s Shadow does some pretty unfair things, of course, but it can be attacked in fairly straightforward ways. Before, players tried to fight Grixis on one axis, be it their graveyard or their board, but Death’s Shadow has shown that it’s strong enough to fight back against half-hearted hate. Stubborn Denial and Thoughtseize are incredible cards for helping Grixis through any sticky situation, but under dedicated hate, the deck can’t hope to succeed for long. Sure, they’ll take a match here and there through multiple Path to Exile and Relic of Progenitus, but when every single opponent, match after match, is prepared to fight both their board and their graveyard, Grixis Death’s Shadow is going to fall eventually.
I saw this coming last week, which is why I made moves to shift away from creatures and the graveyard towards planeswalkers and card advantage. Whether these sorts of moves will keep Grixis in the hunt is yet to be seen, but even if players make these changes en masse, the deck can’t hope to survive while it’s facing archetypes primed to beat it like Hatebears. Hatebears as it is built currently can present a proactive gameplan against the field at large, while bringing specific cards to bear in problematic matchups. Blade Splicer into Restoration Angel isn’t blowing the socks off of anyone in 2017, but as long as Relic of Progenitus can slow down multiple archetypes a significant number of turns it seems that’s all it takes. Burrenton Forge-Tender for Burn and Anger of the Gods; Thalia, Guardian of Thraben for spells; Relic of Progenitus for the graveyard—on and on it goes. The format is polarized at this point, and the enemies are known.
Part Two: Public Enemy Number One?
Grixis Death’s Shadow has nobody to blame but itself. Or does it? While it’s true that they opened themselves to getting destroyed by Mirran Crusader, it can be argued that the format-wide pushback to a deck that is debatably fair is an over-reaction, or at least premature. Yes, it feels bad to get hit by a 10/10 Death's Shadow that was cast for one mana, but alongside Affinity, Dredge, and Storm, is that really “too crazy” for Modern? Dredge can flood the board with creatures on turn three (or two), and Conflagrate our board or our life total for 8+ damage. Affinity dumps its hand on the second turn, and Storm can combo out on turn two or turn 10. Are Thought Scour, Kolaghan's Command, and undercosted 5/5’s really worth freaking out about?
Apparently, yes. See, Grixis Death’s Shadow is a machine, and nobody likes machines. They rage against them, even. I testify that it doesn’t matter how many copies Affinity puts into the Top 4 of events, players will refuse to wake up to the truth; they are biased against value decks. It feels worse to lose to Grixis Death’s Shadow because games take longer, because they play Thoughtseize, because they “always have the Stubborn Denial,” because it isn’t fair to play a 4/5 on turn two, or a 2/2 that grows quickly on turn three. Apparently, it’s much more fair to lose to Cranial Plating on a lifelinked, flying Vault Skirge attacking for seven on turn two, or the one-card combo Cathartic Reunion turning over a ton of value into the graveyard. Why is this?
It all comes down to psychology, and human emotion. See, we like to say that we’re analytical and unbiased, capable of making decisions based on evidence alone. But in the end, the biggest driving force behind our opinions is emotion. And no matter what you think, everyone can agree that for some reason it just feels worse losing to Grixis Death’s Shadow than it does to Affinity. We all know why, but we don’t think about it consciously. Everyone knows they’re going to lose to Affinity game one, and they don’t mind, as they know they can destroy Affinity in post-board games with Stony Silence. We’re sheep, gladly giving in to an archetype that does incredibly unfair things because we have in our possession that magic bullet that can solve all our problems. We don’t care, and neither do Affinity players, because they are smarter than us, and they know that eventually, our memories will fail us, and we’ll move on to other perceived threats, leaving them to do what they do, in an endless cycle.
Grixis Death's Shadow, on the other hand, is too resilient, and less all-in, to be destroyed in one fell swoop by a sideboard bomb. It feels worse when they reload from your Relic of Progenitus, because the deck is built that way on purpose. Still, it seems like the deck is overpowered because it's able to shrug off one copy of a sideboard spell, and as Magic players, we've become conditioned to believe that our sideboard spells are all bangers. There was a time when every deck in the format had to slow down, play fair, do their part, and find some room for Dismember. I'm not saying that's where we are, but before placing all the blame on Death's Shadow, maybe we should look to playing interactive Magic first. Maybe that's a bad idea, but I'd rather try it and say it didn't work than not try at all.
Dredge doesn’t care if you ban its Dredge 6 value piece. There’s plenty more where that came from. Bloodghast, Narcomoeba, Prized Amalgam, Cathartic Reunion, Life from the Loam, hell, even Conflagrate would have been better ban decisions, but here we are. No, the biggest enemy is Grixis Death’s Shadow, because it dares to play Thought Scour and trade a bad Burn matchup for a powerful creature to use against everyone else.
Conclusion
See, I know myself enough, and I’m honest enough with myself to realize that my position on this is coming from a perspective influenced by emotion. I am what I am, and what I am is a middle class, Southern, white male that loves casting blue spells. Naturally, this makes me the enemy, and means my perspective is flawed, but I digress. I hope this doesn’t come across as a whining piece lamenting the unfair bullies of the format that won’t let me enjoy my sweet Grixis limelight for just a week before they rip it away from me. Sure, that’s part of it, but really, I’m more perplexed by the overreaction of everyone else than anything.
I’ll continue to attempt to approach the format in interesting ways, and I hope you do the same. For those looking for hot takes, Jeskai Control is bringing the heat right now. So sleep now in the fire, and I’ll see you later this week.
Thanks for reading,
Trevor Holmes
I've clamored for an Unearth reprint since I bought my Goyfs in 2012, and Claim // Fame is as good as it's gonna get. Unlike Unearth, the card is sometimes dead, and therefore worse overall. But it's definitely better in some matchups, where it provides value in the form of immediate damage. Having Fame in the graveyard forces opponents low on life to respect the threat of a creature coming down and closing the game right away, which can provide sizable tempo gains over many turns, 
Up next is the new card I'm most excited about, which is a shame since we won't get it for a few months. Sorcerous Spyglass is a two-mana Pithing Needle that allows casters to see an opponent's hand before naming a card. It doesn't even target, allowing it to get around Leyline of Sanctity.
Fetchlands: I think the biggest draw to this card, and somehow the least talked about, is its interaction with fetchlands. We've all heard the amazing stories of naming a fetchland with Pithing Needle and essentially blowing up an opposing land or two for one mana in the process. Pulling that off requires opponents to have the correct fetchland in hand at the time of Needle's resolution, making it a wildly inconsistent line. Spyglass changes all this by revealing the hand first. Oh, you have a Scalding Tarn? I'll name that. Boom! Two-mana Stone Rain.
Liliana's Defeat:Â [Sorcery. Destroy target black creature or black planeswalker. If it was a Liliana planeswalker, its controller loses 3 life.] I mentioned this one above, and man, is it a doozy. Here's a card that kills any of Grixis Shadow's high-impact cards, no questions asked, for one mana. It can even be Snapped back! Expect Defeat to be a staple in black sideboards as a one- or two-of while Grixis Shadow remains Modern's premier 
Solemnity: Three mana is a whole lot for a permanent that doesn't immediately impact the board, but folks will try to break Solemnity anyway. It helps that the card has a disruptive effect against some decks---Affinity and Infect might struggle to close out games under the enchantment. Solemnity's real potential isn't its disruptive capability, though, but the way it combos with our own cards. With the enchantment on the table, Thing in the Ice flips after just one instant/sorcery is cast, Kitchen Finks persists forever, Jötun Grunt gives white a Goyf, and Phyrexian Unlife becomes a super-Worship. But if that's not enough to get your gears spinning, keep right on reading.
Ramunap Excavator: Giving beloved noncreature permanents legs is nothing new for Wizards, but these kinds of reveals still manage to energize the community. Excavator represents Crucible of Worlds on a body. Talk about a card Todd Stevens wishes he had three months ago, when he actually played the clunky artifact in 
Oketra's Last Mercy: Whether or not this card breaks into the competitive circuit (double white is a pretty intensive color cost for the white decks that struggle against Burn, like Bant Eldrazi), you can bet your bottom you'll see it at FNM for years to come. Burn players, beware: someone's got it out for you. Fortunately for Lava Spikers, Mercy can still be countered with Skullcrack and Atarka's Command; 
Nimble Obstructionist: Vendilion Clique is a powerful card, and one that's seen its fair share of tournament play. But it's always had a tough time in Modern, where it dies to Bolt and heavily taxes manabases. Of course, Bolt isn't great right now, so three-mana, 3/1 flying bodies may have more relevance than usual---Kelsey has even been liking a Clique in her 
Bontu's Last Reckoning: Not untapping your lands sucks, but it doesn't suck as much as dying. Modern is a very fast format. Reckoning gives black decks a fairly unconditional sweeper that I think will definitely see play in sideboards. Killing an Angler and a Shadow with one card isn't something currently available to Modern players for three mana, and that price point makes it easier to flash back with Snapcaster Mage than something like Damnation. Reckoning also provides a highly impactful effect to decks that don't often get to four mana, and one that practically loses its drawback in late-game topdeck-mode situations, despite still costing the same amount.
Scavenger Grounds: [T: Add C to your mana pool. 2, T, sacrifice a desert: Exile all cards from all graveyards.] I almost put Grounds into my above Colorless Eldrazi Stompy list over that flex-spot Relic, but I'll have to test with the card to see if it makes the cut there---after all, we only have room for 2 Mutavault, a card we'd like to run more of if able. Either way, Grounds is an obvious shoe-in for Eldrazi Tron, a deck that not only likes its disruptive effect but has a way to consistently access the card thanks to Expedition Map. Since Grounds can sacrifice any desert to activate its ability, it even plays nicely with our next card...
Hostile Desert: [T: Add C to your mana pool. 2, exile a land card from your graveyard: Hostile Desert becomes a 3/4 elemental creature until end of turn. It's still a land.] Yet another inclusion I'll have to test in Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, Hostile Desert costs more to activate than Mutavault, but also brings significantly more power to the table. 3/4 is freaking massive! For reference, that's the size of many young Goyfs, and of Stirring Wildwood---a land that costs a whopping three mana (including two of different colors) to activate, and still sees play. Hostile Desert is very pushed as far as colorless manlands go, and I'm interested to see if it breaks in to many non-colorless Modern decks as a result (as Mutavault historically has). Resisting Bolt is a major plus in this format.
I’m most comfortable with UW Merfolk, but I was rather leery of actually taking it to the GP. To be clear, the deck is great; it has a phenomenal matchup against Eldrazi Tron, which I expected to be popular thanks to Todd Stevens, and against the total field. But I was still worried. Grixis is a coin flip. It is very winnable, but Grixis has plenty of hands that fatally pick apart Merfolk and win before you can recover. I think the average Merfolk hand stacks up well against the Grixis' average but my great hands don’t just crush Grixis like theirs will. Counters Company is another problem, mostly because I can’t play enough removal to consistently break up the combo. The combo is very fast and more often than not they win without any resistance from Merfolk. And there are always the twin nightmares of Affinity and Elves. I was hoping for something better.
My hand is a little slow but it’s solid with several Silvergills to make up for my mulligan. My opponent also starts slow with just a tapped Watery Grave, but several Thoughtseizes and fetch/shocks let him deploy Death's Shadow. I cantrip into Harbinger to negate his attack and then kill him with islandwalk. I only dealt nine damage that game. How Shadow decks don’t auto-lose to Burn still shocks me.
My opponent leads with Eldrazi Temple and moans when I open on Island, Aether Vial. He’s well aware of how bad this matchup is for him. He also has two more Temples, but can only muster a Chalice for one and some small Walking Ballistas. I play around his All Is Dust and quickly rebuild with lords to grow out of Ballista range and just crush him. He’s flush with mana but has nothing to do except cast a Karn that is just an overpriced Vindicate.
My opponent has a removal-heavy draw that I gradually work my way through. She’s stuck on two lands and eventually the removal runs out so I get there easily.
I have another land-light hand with Vial while my opponent has the combo turn three and is visibly irritated when I have Path to not die. I continue to develop my board while he just has more mana dorks. After counting his mana, I know that he can Chord of Calling for Devoted Druid and combo next turn. He already telegraphed at least one Chord by rereading my Cursecatcher. I have Vial on two and five mana, so I play Seas and two Adepts looking for Cage. I find it. He has Chord, but only for one thanks to Cursecatcher, and gets Viscera Seer. He draws nothing relevant before dying.
My heart sinks when I see a turn one Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle. This is an awful matchup, especially on the draw game one. To make matters worse, my hand is very slow. I have no meaningful impact on the game and get Scapeshifted out turn five.
Hitting a run of bad matchups Day 2 was just poor luck. I was fortunate to win Round 8, but that was also the most winnable of the bad matchups. I was very unlikely to beat Valakut or Affinity, and Dredge is a coin flip under the best circumstance. DCI Reporter was simply unkind.
