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Insider: Amonkhet Constructed Gems

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Welcome to Amonkhet, a world of mummies, pyramids and gods! The full spoiler is now released, and we get to dive into one of the coolest sets in years. Make sure you check out my first two articles on this set, Amonkhet First Look and Amonkhet Powerhouse Cards. Today, I’m going to focus on the cards I think will be impacting our Constructed formats.

First up, let’s finish out the god cycle for this plane of existence.

Rhonas the Indomitable

rhonastheindomitable1

I know I included Rhonas the Indomitable in last week's article, but at that time we didn’t have the sweet Masterpiece artwork and I felt it needed to be included. One reason in particular that I want to point this new Masterpiece out is because it’s the only mono-green card in the cycle. I find that to be very interesting. Additionally, I wonder if it will impact the price in a positive way that he is the only green card. Take a look at the color break down of the Invocations.

White – 7
Blue – 11
Black – 6
Red – 3
Green – 1
Multicolored – 2

For a minorly OCD person such as myself, Wizards creating bizarre patterns of seemingly unrelated cycles like this drives me nuts. If the colors were slightly unbalanced, I’d even be fine with that, but for there to be only one green card and three red cards is strange. It’s possible that in order to find cards that fit the theme of the plane, these were the cards deemed most applicable, but I think we could have balanced it a bit more for players who enjoy red and green cards. Going forward, Wizards has stated that there won’t be an overarching theme (like with the lands from Battle for Zendikar or artifacts from Kaladesh), but rather they would print cards that fit the block, like we see here on Amonkhet.

Bontu the Glorified

bontutheglorified1

Alright, maybe I’m supposed to break down this card and say that although the 4/6 for three mana seems great, especially with menace and the indestructibility, the sacrifice requirement to allow it to attack or block is too harsh and will prevent it from seeing play. Maybe I’m supposed to say that, but honestly I don’t want to.

I’ll admit, I’m drawn to engine cards like this more than most players. So, my desire for this card to be good may be shifting my perspective, but I think Bontu the Glorified is much better than he seems.

The reason why I like cards like Bontu, Blood-Chin Fanatic, or even Cabal Archon from back when I started playing, is because they give you a great end-game plan. When the game goes long, these cards can provide a way to actually win. Basically, if you put these types of cards in aggressive strategies, they act as multiple burn spells to finish off your opponent.

They also pair well with other cards that let you sacrifice creatures for effects, like Nantuko Husk or Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim. We can combine all these types of cards together to form great strategies like Aristocrats, one of my favorite Standard decks of all time. They have synergy and power as well as being super fun to play. With all that being said, I hope that Bontu will fit into this type of strategy in the new Standard environment, and I’ll be working to find his spot in this archetype.

Zombies!

Speaking of Aristocrats and decks of that nature, Zombie Tribal is looking extremely playable. We’ll have to see what happens with the banned list update coming soon, because Vehicles may be strictly better than a tribal aggressive deck even with some new sweet cards. Let’s look at some of the cards that stand out from this tribe.

Lord of the Accursed

lordoftheaccursed

When was the last time we had a lord like this in Standard? I think it's several years ago with Stromkirk Captain and Mayor of Avabruk in Innistrad block and then Elvish Archdruid in M13. Thalia's Lieutenant is sort of like a lord, I guess, but not in the way these other cards are. The point is though, it’s been a while since Wizards gave us a traditional type of lord like Lord of the Accursed. Not only does it give the standard +1/+1 to the tribe, but he also can grant menace to your army as well. That’s potent, for sure.

Dread Wanderer

dreadwanderer

We are also getting a one-mana 2/1 with a recursive ability. This iteration of Gravecrawler has more limitations, though. Not only does it cost three mana to bring him back, but you can only do so on your turn and if you have one or zero cards in hand. Even with these restrictions, I expect Dread Wanderer to be highly played. We could even see it paired with Prized Amalgam too.

Wayward Servant

waywardservant

One of the best parts about the Zombie tribe from Amonkhet has to be Wayward Servant. I’m totally smitten with this card right now. It’s like Wayward Servant was made just for Diregraf Colossus and all these other zombie cards like Relentless Dead and Cryptbreaker that have been sitting around collecting dust. With these cards I’ve mentioned, we have an obvious tribal aggro strategy that’s possible in the format. I hope so much this deck is playable, because I want to swarm with some zombies!

We could even include cards like From Under the Floorboards or Dark Salvation in this deck. Zombies might not be the most supported tribe in Standard, but the tools are there to build something. We may still be missing some creatures to fill out our curve, but the shell is there.

Financially, Relentless Dead has already bumped up in price, and if this deck gains some traction in the community, I think other cards from the tribe will pop up as well. I think the gem we need to focus on is Diregraf Colossus. It’s barely more than bulk right now, but if players start building BW Zombies, this card will break out of its previous price model quickly.

As Foretold

asforetold (1)

Is As Foretold bonkers busted or are my friends and I living in Magical Xmasland? My PayPal account definitely thinks it could be real, because I just bought a couple play sets of Wheel of Fate. That card is spiking, by the way, so pick some copies up if you can still find a good price. This combo deck might not pan out, but the internet is selling out of this suspend spell pretty quickly.

In Modern, I can picture Birds of Paradise turn one and As Foretold turn two. Once that happens, we can cast Wheel of Fate, Lotus Bloom or Ancestral Vision for free. There is even Restore Balance or [/Card]Living End[/Card] if you want to go either of those routes.

With the free mana from Simian Spirit Guide and Desperate Ritual, it’s easy to picture a turn where you combo off using a bunch of free spells. Maybe the combo is too hard to assemble, but it seems as easy as having As Foretold and a card to cast for zero.

At first I was worried about the window being limited since you only have one turn with zero counters, but then I remembered time counters used to be a thing back in Time Spiral. There was Timecrafting and Clockspinning as well as Rift Elemental and Timebender. These cards would allow us to revert the enchantment back to zero and continue to cheat our suspend spells into play for free.

Cryptic Serpent

crypticserpent1

Is this giant blue sea creature the blue Goyf? Five instants or sorceries doesn’t seem like that much to ask in order to make this guy cost a mere double blue. I see Standard, Modern, and maybe even Legacy potential here. For Standard, pairing Serpent with a Thing in the Ice strategy seems synergistic, but it could easily fit into another type of controlling strategy as well as a finisher alongside Torrential Gearhulk. Maybe this creature will be enough to bring back UR Delver in Modern? We already have Delver of Secrets and Young Pyromancer. If we add another threat like this, that deck could come back. It's possible that black mana in that deck for Tasigur, the Golden Fang and some removal spells is just better, though. I’d still track down foils whenever possible, because they should be cheap to start and there's a lot of upside.

Samut, Voice of Dissent

samutvoiceofdissent

Wow! I know I said the gods have a lot of abilities, but man what a pile of insane abilities. Talk about blowout potential. Even with how incredible these abilities are, the card still costs five mana. I wonder if it will actually see play. I hope so, because this red-green human is crazy. If red-green aggro emerges as an actual archetype, we could realistically see Samut as a finisher for that deck. Without that happening, I still like foil copies for the Commander players.

There are a bunch of other great cards in the set like Weaver of Currents, Vizier of the Menagerie, Harsh Mentor, Shadow of the Grave, and Anointed Procession, just to name a few. This set really has some interesting effects and abilities appearing in new colors. I hope Standard will grow and bloom into something much better than Saheeli vs. Vehicles vs. GB. There are so many cool things in Amonkhet, I can’t wait to start brewing!

Don’t miss next week as I try to boil down this amazing set into a top 10!

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter

Insider: QS Cast #61: Vendor Series- Magic.Cards with Angelo Part 2!

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Play

The QS Cast has returned: Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil continue on with where the cast left off and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Esteemed guest Angelo Russo, owner of Magic.Cards/Universe Games joins the cast!
  • Discussion about Magic.Cards and Universe Games growth since last Podcast.
  • Meta discussion about Magic the gathering health, in addition to hobbies overall.
  • Exclusive discussion about new features coming to Magic.Cards!
  • Growth in the vendor space, why Magic.Cards leverages high buylist quantities.
  • Brick and Mortar growth with Universe Games
  • Utilize Magic.Cards Buylist - they take any card at most quantities!

We want to personally thank Angelo for joining us on the QS Cast! We can't wait for the exciting new features coming along for Magic.Cards customers.

We look forward to hosting Magic.Cards again soon!

 

As always, please comment and leave questions for us to address on the next cast! We will be making QS Insider questions a priority, and we want to know what you want covered.

Enjoy! We’re glad to be back.

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG  @the_tark

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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Posted in Free Insider, QS Cast2 Comments on Insider: QS Cast #61: Vendor Series- Magic.Cards with Angelo Part 2!

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Insider-Eternal Amonkhet

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Welcome back readers! The Amonkhet set draws inspiration from ancient Egypt so it seems appropriate that it bears a lot of eternal potential with it. This set has me pretty excited as I think we will see some cards greatly alter the eternal landscapes. Now I will start by saying that I am an avid fan of Modern, Legacy, and Commander my knowledge regarding vintage is extremely limited, so rather than make any type of guesstimate I will simply not analysis cards with regards to their vintage capabilities (though I may allude to potential when the card's power level is high enough). So without further ado let's begin.

Harsh Mentor

harshmentor

This has to be my favorite card from the set. This is another in a line of strong "hate bears" from WoTC. What's particularly interesting about this one is that it's red instead of white (which typically gets the "hatebear" cards). This is the type of card that can fit into an aggressive deck or aggro/control style deck. We have heard a lot about this cards from quite a few players (Craig Wescoe wrote an interesting piece on it on TCGplayer). The ability on him affects a LOT of cards that are currently played in eternal formats including;

  • Fetchlands- The most obvious of all, but the fact that if you jam this guy on turn 2 in modern and your opponent doesn't have a removal spell for him immediately there's a high likelihood they will have to take 5 (or more) damage the next turn OR slow themselves down a lot as the act of fetching will now deal your opponent 3 damage (and if they need an untapped shock it's another 2). Obviously in Legacy the opponent will just take the 3, but that's still significant as it's over 10% of your starting life total.
  • Sensei's Divining Top- As a die-hard Miracles player this guy definitely concerns me. The key to miracles is to use your life as a resource until you can lock your opponent out of the game or gain massive card advantage with a well timed Terminus (and then lock them out of the game). The fact that every activation of Top will cost you 2 life (let alone you looking at the top 3 AND then tapping to draw will cost you 4 life) and the fact that this creature also swings for 2 means that using your life (as a resource) will deplete a lot faster than it used to, which means you may not be able to stabilize.
  • Modern Lantern Control- This card wrecks modern lantern control as it can come down before they can start locking the opponent out of the game and each one of the "mill one" artifacts will cost them 2 life per activation. A little part of me wonders if WoTC just hates that deck and this card was created as a nice "screw you" to the pilots of it.
  • Griselbrand- Most decks that abuse Griselbrand use their life as a resource to set up some sort of game winning kill. The fact that each activation costs an additional 2 life with this on the field means that the math shifts slightly (and that matters). For example, if your opponent is playing modern Grishoalbrand and uses 3 life or more before getting Griselbrand on the battlefield than they will only be able to activate the card draw once as you can't subtract 9 (7 +2 life from the mentor) more than once from 17.
  • Arcbound Ravager- For those who might have forgotten Ravager's ability gets hit by this card too and the days of activating Inkmoth Nexus and swinging with the team and then sacrificing around blocks is gone.
  • Viscera Seer- This card also really harms the Abzhan CoCo decks in modern as now if you try to go off with Kitchen Finks instead of gaining infinite life all you get is a bunch of scry's and whatever life you started with.
  • Equipping deals damage as well.

As you can see this card has effects a LOT of different cards which means it is likely to make a pretty big impact on eternal formats. They even made it a human so it can enjoy all the additional synergies associated with the Human tribe.

As Foretold

asforetold

I'll be the first to admit that this card made me giddy when I saw it spoiled (and I even misread it thinking that you could only cast spells with CMC X (not X or less). The power level blows my mind and I honestly see this card creating an archetype in modern; how good that archetype is, I don't know yet but I'm working on it. Every time we get a card that allows us to cheat on mana and/or cast things for free we need to pay special attention to it. It's also important to note that the way it's worded allows you to cast suspend spells with it, which given how powerful some of the "free ones" are we will now be able to cast Black Lotus[card] via [card]Lotus Bloom, Ancestral Recall via Ancestral Visions, and Wheel of Fortune via Wheel of Fate all 3 of which are restricted in freakin' Vintage. Sure we are limited to casting them at sorcery speed (since none of the 3 suspend versions are instants), BUT thanksfully WoTC has created cards that allow one to cheat on that requirement as well (Leyline of Anticipation). Now at least it is limited to once per turn (though obviously if everything in your deck has flash you can also cast these things on your opponents turn).

Glorious End

gloriousend

I know what you are thinking, how does a card that says "you lose the game" make this list. But hear me out. This is not one of those ubiquitous "it goes in anything that can support it" type of cards, but what it offers is a way for non-blue decks (that play red) to interact with all in combo decks which is something they haven't had before. Normally in the Burn vs Storm matchup, the Burn player has to just do their thing and hope that the Storm player draws poorly. More often than not "one more turn" is all the red aggro/burn decks need to win the game and the fact that you can cast this in their upkeep to essentially time walk your opponent means it might honestly fit in additional fast aggro decks as long as they can kill fast enough.

Gideon of the Trials

gideonofthetrials

I bring Gideon up because the Emblem can be used in multiple combos (especially with Ad Naseum) and the fact that one can make an Emblem and then use him to prevent damage from a single permanent,which can force an opponent to over commit, or turn into a threat that ends the game in 5 turns (or less depending on life totals). I think modern Ad Naseum players will at least try him as an alternate to say Phyrexian Unlife because despite the fact that Gideon is harder to cast the benefit of an alternate win condition (like say if they happen to have Leyline of Sanctity in play) might just be worth the extra bit of hassle.

Soul-Scar Mage

soulscarmage

This card reminds me a lot of Monastary Swiftspear which has definitely found a home in both modern and legacy burn decks. Prowess is a powerful mechanic on a cheap red aggro creature and the pseudo "whither" effect is also incredibly useful as one of the biggest problem burn decks face is when the opponent drops a brick wall like Tarmogoyf forcing the burn player to Abyss themselves every turn or sit back and do nothing waiting to go over the top of said brick wall. Turning noncombat damage burn spells into a way to make these brick walls passable comes in handy. Now unlike Swiftspear this one doesn't come with haste (which is a big deal), so I don't know if it will see as much play (or could be a sideboard card for these red aggro decks when they need to go longer against midrange), but I definitely expect players to try it out and I won't be surprised if it finds a home in an eternal deck.

Consuming Fervor

consumingfervor

 

I'll be honest I haven't heard a lot of chatter about this one on the forums (heck how many of you even knew it was in the set) but this is a color shifted (and arguably more appropriate) Unstable Mutation which was a key card in a lot of blue flyer aggro decks back in Magic's early days. Now we have more ways than ever to remove -1/-1 counters and the fact of the matter is if you can dump this on an unblocked creature you get 6 extra damage (over 3 turns) for 1 red mana, that's efficiency right there. It also happens to trigger prowess so you can do a whole lot of damage with something like turn 1 Goblin Guide turn 2 Monastery Swiftspear+ Consuming Fervor ) which assuming they can't do anything about it means they will be at best 11 on turn 2.

Flameblade Adept

flamebladeadept

 

It seems mono red is getting a lot of love in this set, though I admit this one is much lower on the totem than the previously mentioned cards. Most players see this one as part of the turn 3 standard kill, but the fact that the pump comes at no mana cost and it has menace (making it easier to get through) still seems like there is some potential here, granted most red aggro decks aren't wanting to just discard cards, though it is important to remember that the Bloodrush mechanic involves discarding a card to pump..so you get a little extra boost for your Bloodrush.

Shadow of the Grave

shadowofthegrave

Honestly my first thought on this card was that maybe we would see the old Fluctuating Death deck come to legacy (for those who don't know the deck revolved around using Fluctautor and all the 2 mana cycling creatures from Urza's Saga to dig through ones deck and fill one's graveyard and then playing a Living Death (often on turn 3 with the help of Dark Ritual) to have a giant battlefield (and typically wipe one's opponents creatures as well, basically the original deck that modern's Living End deck has copied. The problem the deck had before was that all the cycling lands came into play tapped so in order to maximize your ability to find your Living Death you had to play a lot of CIPT lands (which then of course slowed you down). The benefit of Shadow of the Grave is that by being able to re-use cyclers one could reduce the number of cycling lands needed in the deck and thus play more lands that don't enter tapped and speed up the deck by a turn or 2. Even if this doesn't happen, the ability to return a bunch of cards from your graveyard to your hand at instant speed for 2 mana (only one of which is color dependent) is still very powerful and not to be ignored.

Dread Wanderer

dreadwanderer

 

Zombie decks always seem to be "make or break" based on how readily available repeated recursion abilities are. This one requires more mana than usual, but the fact that it is again a Zombie means that it can turn on Gravecrawler and of course it can also trigger Prized Amalgam. I personally feel like Zombie decks are just a bit too slow (and usually too fair) for eternal formats, but one day we may very well likely hit a point in which they are do-able.

Champion of Rhonas

championofrhonas

 

I'll be honest and admit I don't think this one has a really high probability of finding a home in eternal formats, but the ability is incredibly powerful (again cheating on mana has typically led to WoTC's biggest design mistakes) and green being the color of mana dorks has ways to get this card out quickly (and ideally give it haste). This is one of those cards I don't expect to find a home immediately but if the price drops to $1 or less I will aggressively pick them up (as they are still insanely good in commander).

Manglehorn

manglehorn

While at first this might look like a slightly worse Reclamation Sage on account of the fact that it's not an Elf and can't hit enchantments the second ability is the one that sets this card apart. This card shuts down the modern Puresteel Storm deck (by forcing their Mox Opals to come into play tapped and not allowing them to chain Retracts. It's also a 3 drop so it can get hit off of Collected Company and isn't all that bad against Affinity decks.

Throne of the God-Pharaoh

throneofthegodpharaoh

 

This is definitely a card that can either be "built around" or serve as a great addition to token or swarm style decks. The fact that this triggers on your end step does mean that it has an immediate effect the turn you play it (as it triggers when you end said turn) and it can deal a lot of colorless damage in the right type of deck. It's a 2 drop as well so it has the mana cost of an eternal card. I could definitely see slotting it into maybe a Faeries deck or some sort of B/W Tokens deck in modern.

Cycling

This isn't related to any one specific card, however, with the return of the cycling mechanic there is always some potential for something busted to come out of it. Cycling adds consistency (by allowing one to draw a new card at the cost of the cycling) and consistency is something pretty much every deck likes. As we've already seen Fluctuator jump from $2.50 to over $10 there is definitely some hype with the return of this mechanic, especially now that we have cycling dual lands.

Conclusion

As I said in the beginning I'm really enjoying this Amonkhet set and I think there are a lot of cards that might have an impact on eternal archetypes. There are some other ones that might, but I had to have a cutoff somewhere (sorry Vizier of  Remedies and Devoted Druid), so definitely let me know your thoughts in the comments section.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for April 19th, 2017

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various Constructed formats and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budgets, risk tolerance and current portfolios before buying or selling any digital objects. Please send questions via private message or post below in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of April 18, 2017. The TCGplayer low and TCGplayer mid prices are the sum of each set's individual card prices on TCGplayer, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from GoatBot's website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to GoatBot's "full set" prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month's prices, taken from GoatBot's website at that time. Occasionally, full set prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

apr18

Plan for Amonkhet

Players will get their first taste of Amonkhet (AKH) Limited this weekend with paper prerelease events. Starting with AKH, MTGO players won't have to wait very long to start drafting the new cards, as the new set will go live on Monday, April 24. Monday is also the day for the next banned and restricted announcement which has the potential to completely shake up the Standard metagame. A little preparation in advance will help players and speculators to make the most of these events.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Death's Majesty

Right off the top, I'll be looking to accumulate playsets or more of the foil mythic rares from AKH. For reasons I've articulated in the past, these are going to be excellent stores of value over the summer. Holding all of the foil mythic rares in a basket has the potential for 10 to 20 percent returns over that time frame. Players with spare tix should definitely be looking into buying foil versions of the mythic rares instead of the regular versions, as these will hold value while regular versions will not.

I want to be a buyer of all fifteen of the AKH mythic rares as it is difficult to predict with certainty how the price of an individual card will fluctuate over time. There's no way I would have guessed that Exquisite Archangel would be the second-most expensive foil from Aether Revolt (AER), yet it's currently priced at 16 tix. Only Heart of Kiran is more expensive at 31 tix. Buy the complete basket and forget about trying to pick a winner.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Exquisite Archangel

Once AKH goes live on MTGO, I'll be looking to buy any foil mythic rare for around 6 tix. This was the safe level for purchasing mythic rares from AER, though some cards did dip below this level. It's also worth nothing that AKH is a large set with a different mix of mythic rarities, so my experience with AER should only be a loose guide in determining a good buy in price. I'll be looking to accumulate playsets over the first two weeks of AKH being available.

The plan will be to hold them through the summer and sell them in August or September. Having said that, there is the possibility that a breakout performance at Pro Tour Amonkhet will shoot the price of a particular mythic rare much higher. In that case, the foil versions will also catch most of that increase, as they are perfect substitutes when it comes to gameplay. Any kind of Pro Tour-driven price spike will be worth selling into and will thus force a slight deviation from the original plan to hold these into the summer. When a large fraction of the expected gains are available unexpectedly early, take the profits off the table and lower your opportunity cost. There's no sense in waiting months on an incremental gain when tix could be deployed into other opportunities.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Summer Bloom

Outside of buying and holding the foil versions, I'll also be looking to buy regular mythic rares in advance of the Pro Tour. Prices on the supply-constrained new cards can fluctuate wildly in response to showing up in feature matches, deck techs and especially by being part of the top eight decks on Sunday. This is a riskier strategy that didn't work out for me for Pro Tour Aether Revolt, but I'll be assessing each of the new mythic rares for their Standard potential over the coming weeks.

Banned and Restricted Announcement

On the same day that AKH is released on MTGO, a banned and restricted announcement will be made. Ordinarily this wouldn't be a big deal, as a new set is bound to shake up Standard and WotC would do well to get out of the way and let events unfold. However, Standard has already seen a number of bans in order to encourage deck diversity, and despite the bannings, the problem persists with the apparent dominance of Saheeli Rai-based decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Saheeli Rai

As per MTGgoldfish, nearly 50 percent of the top decks contain the Saheeli Rai and Felidar Guardian combo. If AKH does nothing to unseat this powerful combination and the Pro Tour top eight is devoid of fresh decks, it will be a marketing failure for WotC as they showcase all-too-familiar and oppressive strategies. Look for Felidar Guardian to be banned next week and be wary of holding Saheeli; she was a sub-2 tix planeswalker prior to the release of AER, and she'll be back below that price if the combination is banned from Standard.

Trade of the Week

For a complete look at my recent purchases, please check out the portfolio. Since the end of Modern Masters 2017 (MM3) drafts, there has been a bump in prices on many Modern staples such as Scalding Tarn, Blood Moon, and Snapcaster Mage. My outlook on these has not changed, in that I expect them to drift down in price with the release of AKH and a renewed focus on Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Verdant Catacombs

The bump in price has allowed me to sell some of my fetchlands in order to get more liquid in advance of the release of AKH. The Standard format is going to be shaken up to some degree with the possibility of a card being banned amping up that potential. In a tumultuous market, there will be opportunity to make tix as card valuations swing up and down. Selling down Modern staples is a prudent step in advance of this expected tumult.

Gideon on Trial in Ad Nauseam

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Idle speculation accomplishes nothing. Speculation is just untested opinion, and is therefore invalid. With that in mind, I've decided to test my opinions about Gideon of the Trials and find out if my initial impressions actually hold weight. I don't have enough data to make any definitive conclusion, but my testing should shine some light on Gideon's actual potential.

To recap, last week I came down rather hard on Gideon. His hype train was a little out of control, much like his preorder price. I wanted to remind everyone that his emblem was not the game changer it appeared against combo decks. I stand by this sentiment; planeswalkers are easier to remove than you might think in Modern. However, I speculated that Gideon of the Trials might be a reasonable Ad Nauseam card. The emblem is nearly Angel's Grace, the key to the combo. On that basis, Gideon could replace the current extra-Grace card, Phyrexian Unlife—the emblem even plays well with Pact of Negation. Several Ad Naus players have since informed me that this is not strictly true and that Unlife is more than just an extra Grace, making Gideon less attractive than I might think. I'm not an Ad Naus player, I don't know the truth. So I decided to find out. I took a stock Ad Nauseam list, tested it against Burn and Death's Shadow Jund, then took out the Unlifes for Gideon, and played the games again.

The Decks

In this experiment, my chosen lists were MTG Goldfish sample decks (for simplicity's sake). When I was choosing lists for the Banned Cards series, I did the aggregation and averaging myself. I won't commit that kind of time to this project. Fortunately, and unlike Jacekai, Ad Naus is effectively "solved" at this point and Burn decks are standardizing, meaning that these lists are fairly "real world." The Death's Shadow deck is far from a typical list, but a lot of that comes from the deck's newness.

Since I was testing using Ad Nauseam, I choose Burn and DSJ on the basis that they are good and bad matchups respectively. I wanted one of each to get a feel for how Gideon affects things. The fact that I expected Gideon to have an impact on the games was another factor; I wasn't going to test matchups where I expected no impact. For reference, here are the decklists:

Ad Nauseam, MTGGoldfish Sample Deck

Creatures

1 Laboratory Maniac
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Artifacts

4 Lotus Bloom
4 Pentad Prism

Instants

3 Pact of Negation
4 Angel's Grace
3 Spoils of the Vault
1 Lightning Storm
4 Ad Nauseam

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand

Lands

4 Darkslick Shores
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Temple of Deceit
2 Plains
1 Temple of Enlightenment
1 Dreadship Reef

I only played single games, so the list didn't need a sideboard. For the test deck, I just replaced each Unlife with a Gideon of the Trials.

Death's Shadow Jund, MTGGoldfish Sample deck

Creatures

4 Death's Shadow
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Street Wraith

Artifacts

4 Mishra's Bauble

Instants

3 Fatal Push
2 Tarfire
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Temur Battle Rage
2 Kolaghan's Command

Planeswalkers

2 Liliana, the Last Hope
1 Liliana of the Veil

Sorceries

4 Traverse the Ulvenwald
4 Inquisition of Kozilek
4 Thoughtseize

Lands

4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Polluted Delta
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Blood Crypt
1 Godless Shrine
1 Forest
1 Overgrown Tomb
1 Stomping Ground
1 Swamp

Traditional Jund was always hard for Ad Naus because of all the discard spells, and Death's Shadow plays even more. Its clock is also usually faster, so I expected this to be even worse for the combo deck.

Burn, MTGGoldfish Sample Deck

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Goblin Guide
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Atarka's Command
4 Boros Charm
3 Searing Blaze
3 Skullcrack
2 Lightning Helix

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

Lands

4 Arid Mesa
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Bloodstained Mire
3 Inspiring Vantage
2 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
2 Mountain

Burn is a good matchup for Ad Naus and for combo in general. It's not only slower, but it can't interact. Angel's Grace and Phyrexian Unlife in particular are crushing, acting as un-Skullcrackable life gain. I was told this matchup in particular justified Unlife, but determining if that was true was the whole point of this experiment.

Experimental Procedure

This was a very simple test. I played game one with both Ad Naus decks against the test decks. Remember, this was a proof of concept rather than a full-on study. I'm still too sane for another one of those. Give it a month before my sanity slips and I start another banned card test.

What made this test different is that I controlled the starting hands. With only time for a single game with each deck I wanted to ensure that I actually tested the right cards. Therefore, I purposefully began with either Gideon or Unlife in my hand, then drew six cards. As this hand was keepable, I used it for both games against a given deck. I used the same seven-card hand each game for the test decks. The rest of the deck was randomized normally. Burn and DSJ were going to fetch turn one anyway, and it would have been too much work to put the decks back into the exact same order each time. Things ultimately work out this way, as knowledge is a tremendous weapon for a combo deck and I would have adjusted my play accordingly.

The plan with Gideon was to plus him as long as the opponent had a threat on the board and to only emblem if I had Ad Nauseam, though that never came up.

Starting Hand vs Burn: Ad Nauseam

Phyrexian Unlife/Gideon of the Trials

Serum Visions

Pentad Prism

Simian Spirit Guide

Temple of Deceit

Temple of Enlightenment

Gemstone Mine

Starting Hand vs DSJ: Ad Nauseam

Phyrexian Unlife/Gideon of the Trials

Sleight of Hand

Lotus Bloom

Pentad Prism

Angel's Grace

Darkslick Shores

Darkslick Shores

Starting Hand: DSJ

Mishra's Bauble

Mishra's Bauble

Traverse the Ulvenwald

Inquisition of Kozilek

Liliana the Last Hope

Kolaghan's Command

Bloodstained Mire

Starting Hand: Burn

Monastery Swiftspear

Rift Bolt

Rift Bolt

Boros Charm

Atarka's Command

Bloodstained Mire

Wooded Foothills

The play/draw was determined by coin flip and was the same for both games. Ad Naus lost the flips and was on the draw for the whole test.

The Results

Ad Nauseam did not win a game. This was not really the point of the test, but I was still expecting to get at least one against Burn. Alas, it wasn't to be. Being on the draw was certainly a problem, but my draws against Burn were uninspiring, and I also never drew Ad Nauseam (I hear it's a pretty important card in this deck). My draws were okay against DSJ, but I never had both Ad Nauseam and enough mana to cast it. In the Unlife game it was Thoughtseized after my Prism was K-Commanded, while in the Gideon game, DSJ drew a lot of Inquisitions into Liliana and I only had four mana sources when I died.

However, there is still useful data to be gleaned from this test, since I managed to resolve Gideon/Unlife in each of these games. Therefore, the measure of their effectiveness is not the end result, but how they impacted my opponent's play and the turn that I died. The results are interesting.

Burn vs Unlife

Died: Turn 6

I thought I curved out fairly well with a scryland for a Plains into Prism, then Unlife and Serum Visions. Had I found Ad Nauseam off Visions or a Temple I would have won. As it was, my opponent dealt a whopping 14 damage on turn three thanks to two resolving Rift Bolts and Atarka's Command. On turn four, I went to zero, and then to two poison thanks to Boros Charm and Goblin Guide. Had Burn drawn a spell instead of a land turn five, I would have died, but I was afforded an extra meaningless turn. I can see why Ad Naus players like Unlife in this matchup; most of the time it will gain you over than 10 life. The math this time just favored my opponent. Interestingly, I drew an Angel's Grace on my last turn but it doesn't actually prevent damage so I would have died during cleanup had I tried to save myself.

Burn vs Gideon

Died: Turn 7

My curve was the same up until turn four. I emblemed Gideon since I was at four life and dead to Charm, and my opponent put me to zero, then attacked Gideon for two. He drew another Swiftspear and attacked Gideon twice before he found a Rift Bolt to kill Gideon. In other words, Gideon prevented nine damage, which is almost comparable to Unlife, but I also gained an extra draw step because my opponent had to kill Gideon rather than just deal poison damage. That was an extra chance to win the game. I wasn't going to draw the Ad Naus for another three turns, but Gideon did give me an additional out. Furthermore, had my opponent tried to put me to exactly lethal before Gideon died, Angel's Grace would have bought me another turn. At minimum, it changed how my burn opponent had to play the game.

DSJ vs Unlife

Died: Turn 10

This was kind of excruciating. Inquisition took my Bloom in both games and subsequent discard took the non-Unlife combo pieces. It took my opponent forever to find a threat, since they didn't have delirium until turn six. Instead, they used a series of Baubles, cast a few Thoughtseizes to strip my hand of the combo, and had the opportunity to emblem Liliana, the Last Hope. I gained just one turn from Unlife thanks to a Zombie assault, led by Tarmogoyf. Twice. I was very aware of Abrupt Decay killing me, though it didn't show up. I can confirm that this is a terrible matchup.

DSJ vs Gideon

Died: Turn 8

My opponent's first four plays were two Inquisitons, Traverse, and a Thoughtseize. Variance. However, I had the mana to play the Gideon I topdecked turn four, and used him to get Liliana off the board. My opponent finally got delirium on turn five and found Death's Shadow, then drew another two thanks to Bauble, and killed Gideon and me. The Shadows were 8/8s, so Gideon definitely bought extra time, but I lacked the mana to win. I hadn't considered Gideon's use against other planeswalkers, but I think this might be his actual purpose in the deck. Liliana of the Veil is a beating and Ad Naus doesn't have a maindeck way to answer her. I don't know that it necessarily needs one, but if it does, I think Gideon does an excellent job. Being weak to Abrupt Decay and blockers is annoying, but Death's Shadow doesn't always have threats early, and Decay is seeing less and less play these days. It is definitely worth exploring.

Conclusion

Gideon bought me a turn in my good matchup, but lost me the bad matchup more quickly. A lot of this comes down to variance (those Death's Shadows were very timely) and losing the die roll. While I do not believe that being on the draw affected the Unlife games meaningfully, it definitely was a factor in the Gideon game against Burn. Had I been on the play, Gideon would have prevented no less than five damage from Swiftspear that turn, and would likely have been Charmed that turn as well. This would have paid additional dividends down the road, since the lost prowess triggers represented damage my opponent would not get back.

Based on my data and how the matchups played out, I believe Gideon provides a small improvement over Unlife. On the play against decks like Burn, he has a higher impact than Unlife, though on the draw he's no better, and possibly somewhat worse. Against slower decks, Gideon is a little more vulnerable than Unlife, but has the benefit of answering planeswalkers if needed. The improvement may be marginal, but I think it may be worth trying a 2/2 split between Gideon and Unlife. It won't affect the core problem of the deck (finding Ad Naus), but Gideon might add enough versatility to steal a few extra games. If you are a better Ad Naus player than I am and have tried Gideon already, I would love to hear about your experience.

Insider: Getting Ahead of the Buyout Curve

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You know the feeling. It happens every time, and has become so ingrained in the MTG finance culture that it has almost become second nature. You check MTG Stocks first thing in the morning only to discover a few hot cards were bought out.

Druid

Thinking impulsively, you check every site you can think of to see if there are any copies left on the cheap. Nine times out of ten, there’s no use. They’re gone. All gone.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Devoted Druid

The “fear of missing out” kicks in and you chalk up the buyout as another spike missed. There will be plenty more, of that we can be 100% certain. But even still, there’s that tinge of regret flowing through the back of your mind, knowing you could have made ample profits had you been just a few hours faster. Where did things go awry?

Getting Proactive

MTG Stocks is based solely on TCG Player. When TCG Player’s inventory shifts, resulting in a price shift, MTG Stocks calculates the delta. When this delta exceeds a certain threshold, the card shows up on the Interests page. This gets the ball rolling, as often times when speculators see cards on the Interests page they take note and start buying up other underpriced copies across the web. It becomes a self-propagating cycle at that point.

Then as supply approaches double-digits and dwindles towards sub-50, the price starts to take a more exponential look. Suddenly, copies at the “old price” are gone from the market and what remains is a stock of overpriced copies. These skew TCG Mid pricing, thereby indicating a spike on MTG Stocks. Everyone takes notice and the buyout is complete.

The best way to get ahead of these trends is to be more proactive in how we engage with the Interests page. Rather than focusing on top movers, sometimes it’s actually more critical to look at the slow-and-steady gainers—those cards moving up a couple percent here and there. Cards like these aren’t on everyone’s radar yet, but they’re getting enough attention to gradually rise. Presumably this rise in price correlates with a small drop in supply.

One example that pops out to me is Rise of the Dark Realms.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rise of the Dark Realms

I actually didn’t know what this Magic 2014 mythic rare did until I looked it up. Once I read the card, I knew exactly why I had never heard of it—it sees no tournament play. You’ll never see it on camera at a Grand Prix or SCG Open because it is strictly a casual and Commander card. But it is very popular in Commander! EDH REC shows over 4,000 decks using the card, most frequently in Jeleva, Nephalia's Scourge decks.

From a finance standpoint, this card wasn’t on my radar because I never saw it on the top of the Interests page. It seems to rise a few percent here and a few percent there, never really leaping onto my radar as a heavy mover.

With only 54 sellers having lightly-played or near-mint copies in stock, it won’t take long for this card to “spike” on TCG Player. I can’t predict exactly when, but I have to imagine there's virtually no new supply entering the market at this point. Getting ahead on this spike (which admittedly would have been better a few months ago) is a great way to speculate in anticipation of buyouts before they actually occur.

Age Breeds Profit

An important factor to point out is a card’s age. The older (and rarer) the card in question is, the easier it is for its price to suddenly spike. This is why we see Old School staples and Reserved List cards jump so frequently.

There are so few lightly-played or near-mint copies in stock on some of these older cards that the investment to create a buyout is so small. It may cost you $500 - $1000 to buy out something like Rise of the Dark Realms. But to buy out something much older, where there is much thinner stock, is much cheaper.

For example, consider a card like Tithe.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tithe

This is a Reserved List rare from Visions. This is a pretty unique ability for white—an ability like Lay of the Land is much more common in green. Nevertheless, in 1997 Wizards wanted to give white a way of fetching lands. The best part is that Tithe specifically calls out Plains, meaning it can be used to color-fix via dual lands. Indeed over 1,400 decks leverage this card in EDH REC’s database.

If I check TCG Player for stock of LP and NM copies, I see 42 total sellers. Buying all the sub-$8 copies would cost just a couple hundred bucks and would increase the card’s price pretty quickly. I’m not necessarily advocating this, but pointing it out because Tithe has the making of a buyout target. It may be wise to get a couple copies now, ahead of the game. This way when the card shows up as a 100% gainer on MTG Stocks’ Interests page, you aren’t caught with your proverbial pants down.

If we go even older, there are plenty of cards that could spike on a dime if someone paid enough attention. Stock on Mana Vortex has been dwindling, and being from The Dark means the card is ancient and copies on the open market will be severely limited. Though this is more of an Old School bet and has less relevance in EDH. Therefore demand will be less powerful.

I feel like I just missed Mana Matrix, since the card just doubled in price. There were probably only a handful of copies of this one left, and then someone decided to clean up what was left. Had I paid closer attention to stock on this card, I probably could have picked up a few copies at the old price. Now it’s too late—another old card spike!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mana Matrix

Perhaps Debt of Loyalty will be the next one to spike? This is a Reserved List card from Weatherlight with only 28 sellers of LP or NM copies for sale on TCG Player. I will point out there are a bunch at other sites across the web, but this card’s age makes it really interesting. Not to mention the fact that this is another white card with a non-white ability…shouldn’t this be blue?!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Debt of Loyalty

Perhaps more EDH players would use this card if they knew it existed? It seems like a powerful spell, if you ask me. I may pick up a couple just to have lying around. Its price chart looks very compelling, that’s for sure. Talk about monotonically rising prices!

Wrapping It Up

Like death and taxes, buyouts are a certainty in life. At least, they will be as long as MTG finance exists and Magic has a thriving community. Since neither of these two conditions will likely be unmet for many years to come, we may as well get used to buyouts. And with a little advanced preparation, we may even be able to capitalize on them. After all, they’re not that difficult to understand.

We know MTG Stocks’ Interests page is where many speculators go for their daily price checks. I’m not 100% certain, but I suspect the MTG Stocks algorithm uses TCG Mid pricing to determine the price of every card each day. When a card’s price increases enough to overcome a minimum threshold, it shows up on the Interests page. That’s where things get interesting, because it means many more players will start to take notice of the card’s movement.

So in order to profit from buyouts more reliably, we need to get ahead of this movement. We need to take note of cards that are just now rising in price before they go mainstream. This can be tracked by looking at the 2-3% daily movers on the Interests page and cross-checking them with their inventory on MTG Stocks. If there’s lower inventory, we can expect that card’s price to continue to climb. If inventory—especially LP and NM inventory—drops below 50 copies, these cards are ripe for the picking by an aggressive speculator looking to make a buyout. These are the cards you want to grab in advance of that buyout.

Even better are the older cards. Not because I want to manipulate prices, but because they are so much more prone to pop. Add in the fact that many of these cards are on the Reserved List, and you have a recipe for a low-risk, high-reward investment. Those are exactly the type I like to jump into!

If the spike doesn’t happen as planned, it’s not like you’re going to lose money on a Reserved List card if you wait patiently. As long as you avoid hideously bad cards, they should all rise eventually. I gave some ideas in this article of exactly such cards—playable enough to merit acquiring even if we have to wait for gains.

As an added bonus, I even have a couple more ideas.

How about Dread Cacodemon out of the original Commander series?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dread Cacodemon

I see just 42 sellers with LP or NM copies in stock, which will surely dry up over time. As long as this dodges reprint, the Commander demand will soak up what remains and eventually lead to a potential buyout.

Want one more? Check Static Orb—doesn’t matter which printing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Static Orb

I see 28 sellers of the 7th Edition printing and 48 of the original Tempest printing. This one isn’t on the Reserved List, hence why we saw it as a Masterpiece in Kaladesh. This means there’s a small risk for reprint. But if we dodge that reprint, this card is sure to climb higher over time. With enough interest, this card will hit that inflection point and inevitably spike.

There are likely at least a couple dozen more cards like this. Playable in one format or another, low in stock, and prime to pop. The point of this article isn’t to encourage you to go out and buyout these cards yourself. You may end up sitting on dead inventory that will be difficult to move at a profit. Instead, I’d suggest picking up a few strategic copies so you have them in hand in case they do spike.

At this point it becomes a matter of likelihoods—the cost of holding these cards against the likelihood they spike. The older the card, the lower your downside and the higher the upside. But you don’t have to go back to 1997 to find worthwhile pickups. Even stuff as recent as 2014 can offer real opportunity to profit. With a little advanced planning and some research, it’s bound to pay out.

Sigbits

  • I don’t have regrets about flipping my Wheel of Fates for immediate profit. Do they have further upside? Sure. But these are so much less interesting to buy at $4 than they were at $1.50 when I initially bought in. Now to climb higher, they need to put up results, and I think this is unlikely even with As Foretold in Modern. SCG has about 100 copies in stock at under $4, and I think this will be the price ceiling for quite some time.
  • If you’ve been following my posts in the forums (I’ve recently increased my forum activity a bit), you may have seen me push hard for Mana Tithe. I made a small bet on this one, picking up 32 copies for around $22. This is the third card in this article that’s white with a non-white ability. Saffron loves this card, so if he keeps using it on stream in Modern I could see sets climbing to $8-$10. SCG is completely sold out of the regular printing, by the way, with a $1.25 price tag.
  • Winds of Change from Legends just hit an all-time high this past weekend. I’m not sure if it’s EDH players preferring this printing of the card or if it’s Old School demand driving the price. Either way, you can’t argue with results. SCG has exactly one copy in stock: a NM one listed at $7.99. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one hit $10 next.

Insider: Magic Collectibles

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Welcome back, readers!

Today I'm going to cover some lesser-known collectibles related to Magic. We're all familiar with the values (generally speaking) of Magic cards themselves. But you'd be surprised how much some supplemental items are worth.

Here are a few Magic-related items. Do you know which is the most valuable?

jtms                  spellground playmat                  mtgboxset

In ascending order, here's the approximate value of each of these items.

  1. Jace, the Mind Sculptor - $65
  2. Spellground Playmat Onyx/Graphite - $170
  3. MTG Pro Tour 1996 Collector Set - $250

Did you guess correctly? Based on my presentation of the question, you probably suspected Jace wasn't the most expensive of these items. But would you have known that looking through a newly acquired collection?

Many of us in the finance realm have found collection buying to be lucrative. More often than not, when people are dumping a large collection they tend to throw in additional memorabilia. Knowing what to look for and how to recognize value means you can extract the maximum value out of any collections you buy.

That little puzzle was fun, so let's try it one more time:

urza's legacy binder       10th anv lc      pt pin

This one is a bit trickier because none of these items sold, so the price may or may not be accurate. But these prices are what the sellers were asking for. Again, in ascending order:

  1. $45 for the Urza's Legacy Binder
  2. $8.50 for the 10th Anniversary Spin Down Life Counter
  3. $99 for the MTG Pro Tour Pin

This just goes to show that there is demand from people for many of these items that we often find just thrown into the bottom of a tote holding a collection. The market for items like these is far smaller than for Magic cards in general, but there are also a lot less people selling them. (I don't have any data to show how often these types of items sell, though.)

As with MTG cards (for the most part), the older and "rarer" they are, the more valuable they are when it comes to these sorts of Magic collectibles. But that isn't any sort of guarantee. For example, this MTG calendar recently sold for around $8.75 and it's from 1995:

calender

Remember that Magic has been around a long time, and Wizards had a lot of time to brand different things with Magic-related themes. Some are more desirable than others. After all, the 90's was a decade big on cross branding. Remember this?

shaqfu2

Of course you don't, because nobody played it... Shaq himself probably doesn't remember it.

Anyways, I think I've made my point. Just because it's old and says Magic doesn't mean it's valuable, but it might be. Your best bet is to check eBay's sold listings and see if you can find the item and what it sold for. I will say there are a few types of items which tend to be "more collectible" than others.

  • Playmats
  • Pins
  • Dice
  • Binders
  • Deckboxes

The key here is that these items often serve as "swag" items (like foiling out one's deck), or a way to distinguish yourself from other players.

Dice

One of the more surprising items are dice. If you look at eBay sold listings for some spindown dice you may be very surprised at what you find.

dice

Someone bought the Return to Ravnica Izzet die for over $12. If your LGS has a big tub of 20-sided dice that all sell for the same price, this can be an opportunity to make some easy money. Just do some research and find out the more valuable ones, and then pull them out to buy and list on eBay.

Some online retailers buy dice and even maintain buylists for specific ones. Stores will be more likely to buy dice onsite rather than using buylists (for fear of getting barraged with something that likely has a small audience). So your best bet might be to bring any you want to get rid of to a GP and see if you can unload them there.

Playmats

Playmats being valuable isn't really surprising, as so many people use them nowadays and they are another great source of "bling" to show off. The key point to remember with playmats is that there are three major factors affecting their value.

  • Artwork - Iconic cards or just beautiful pieces of artwork on a playmat is likely one of the biggest factors in determining their value.
  • Age - How old is it? As the playerbase has grown there have been a lot of new players joining the competitive scene, so it stands to reason that older playmats are rarer and thus more valuable (so long as the artwork is desirable).
  • Limited run or not? - Collectors like limited-run items as they represent exclusivity in ownership (not everyone gets one). We often see these types of playmats with regards to specific events (like Eternal Weekend). The print runs are expected to be small and such playmats are only given out at said event(s).

delver playmat

Binders

In Magic's early days the focus was on playing. Binders were typically just for holding your extra valuable cards or for serious collectors. I remember seeing many of the older binders stagnate on store shelves back in the day. Most players didn't want to pay the $20+ many stores were charging at the time, when a regular three-ring binder (or, if you were really cool, a Trapper Keeper) from Office Depot would serve the same purpose and cost $1-$2. This cost difference likely caused a lot of stores to stop trying to sell them.

Deckboxes

Deckboxes, on the other hand, were considered more of a necessity to keep your deck safe. Most competitive players had deck boxes (though more casual players would just walk around carrying their unsleeved deck in a tournament pack box). As these items were in regular use, they often wore out fast as the plastic that served as the hinge for the top cracked and broke. It was difficult to keep these pristine for too long, and certainly not if you were actively playing Magic.

That means the ones in good condition are exceedingly difficult to find (at least older ones) and thus are sought out by collectors. Unfortunately this is likely one of those items that is more difficult to move (especially now that we have all kinds of really cool, intricate deck boxes) and for which the condition is critical. But it doesn't hurt to take a bunch of high-quality pictures of any you come across and throw them up on eBay.

Pins

I saved pins for last, honestly, because it's the one that makes the least sense to me. They don't serve any purpose to the game, but even I will admit that many are rare and one definitely thinks twice about keeping a risky hand when your opponent's playmat is covered in Top 8/Top 16 pins.

However, I have met plenty of people who like to collect them, because many players don't really value them. (Who actually remembers that you got an RtR pin representing whichever guild you choose for the pre-release and release events? Who actually kept theirs?)

When it comes to these, the value is again tied to scarcity. The fewer that were made and the older they are, the more likely there's value associated with them. You typically need to use eBay as a resource to find out the value of these (I wasn't able to find any really good sites devoted to MTG pins).

Conclusion

I didn't cover every item branded with MTG flavor (there are t-shirts, backpacks, fanny packs, hoodies, clocks, etc.). Many of those do have value too. So when you see some of these items thrown in a collection, it might just be worth your time to look them over and see if there is any demand for them. Happy Hunting!

Comprehensively Reviewing Amonkhet for Modern

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As of this morning, Amonkhet is fully spoiled! I've already written at length on As Foretold and Gideon of the Trials, which jump out to me as the two best cards in the set (with As Foretold leading by a substantial margin). For more on those two, check out my article from last week. Today's focuses on the slightly-less-exciting Amonkhet cards I think are still likely to see Modern play in some capacity, and on the duds getting attention anyway.

The Good

Besides As Foretold and Gideon of the Trials, Amonkhet's Modern playables will probably slot into existing archetypes.

Vizier of the Menagerie

Vizier evokes Courser of Kruphix, a more defensively-slanted creature with a similar ability for lands. A couple of factors have me thinking Vizier might make it in Modern despite its higher casting cost.

For one, there's no limit to the amount of creatures we can play per turn, so Vizier can possibly draw us more than one card on the same turn. Courser caps out at one extra card per turn, barring the presence of some goofy effect like Azusa, Lost but Seeking's. Creature-heavy decks in the market for some card advantage, like Bant Eldrazi or any Genesis Wave-style deck, might be able to employ Vizier profitably.

Second, improving the creature's power by one point goes a long way in terms of playability. Sturdy creatures like Courser and Vizier excel in role-shifting midrange strategies like Todd Stevens's GW Company deck from last month. Having three power instead of four is a a great boon to Vizier in similar archetypes, which need their cards to switch between aggressive and defensive roles at will (explaining Tarmogoyf's ever-crucial role in Modern midrange decks).

Vizier also has two abilities I think will be overlooked at first, but start to add up as the card sees more play. That it hides the top card of its owner's library from their opponent is great for longer games. One deterrent to running Courser of Kruphix in traditional BGx shells is the information it leaks to the other side of the table.

The Cleric's other sleeper function is its ability to act as Oath of Nissa for creature spells by filtering mana. I doubt this ability generates decklists on its own (unlike Oath's, although I would love to see Vizier in a revamped Domri Obliterator list), but it's far from irrelevant. It gives Abzan Company a way to cast its creatures under Blood Moon, or color-intensive threats like Voice of Resurgence with utility lands like Gavony Township, for instance.

Where it goes: Bant Eldrazi, Abzan Company, Elves, Mono-Green Devotion

Nissa, Steward of Elements

Weird colors, weird abilities, weird casting cost. Fortunately for Nissa, Modern is a weird format. Her ability to scale in long games makes Nissa very interesting, despite her inability to protect herself. The decks that will try her out are ones that tend to have lots of lands in the mid-game and struggle with consistency issues—again, Bant Eldrazi springs to mind. It helps that her 0 ability works best in decks full of lands and creatures, but light on noncreature spells. I could see Nissa working in some ramp-happy creature deck that also wants Vizier.

Where it goes: Bant Eldrazi

Cut // Ribbons

I was hoping none of these hideous aftermath cards would be Modern-playable, but Cut // Ribbons is too juicy for me to ignore. Cut leaves a little to be desired. Modern already has this effect for one mana in Flame Slash. Luckily, the spell's flashback mode is a game-winner.

Ribbons domes opponents for X, only costing pilots an extra BB. That's exactly the kind of mode Removal.dec wants on its binned cards. Grixis Control has all but inherited UR Twin's title as Bolt-Snap-Bolt deck of the format, and Ribbons meshes perfectly with that gameplan.

Considering Twin, Blue Moon, and other black-less blue-red decks ran Roast to deal with problematic creatures, Cut's extra mana cost over Flame Slash doesn't seem like a deal-breaker. The main concern is whether players will want it over Terminate. Fatal Push and Lightning Bolt already handle early creatures admirably, so Cut just lightens the load there. Later on, Cut addresses Thought-Knot Seer, Hooting Mandrills, and Restoration Angel, but notably misses Tasigur, the Golden Fang and Reality Smasher.

It's possible BRx mages will need their two-cost removal spells to hit these creatures if they're going to sleeve them up alongside Push and Bolt. But if not, Cut // Ribbons seems like an exciting complement to midrange strategies in those colors. Either way, I doubt it rises above one copy per list.

Where it goes: Grixis Control, Mardu Midrange

Cast Out

Here's the most boring of the spoiled cards covered today, but Cast Out nevertheless deserves a mention. The main reason to play Cast Out over Oblivion Ring (or, alternatively, Detention Sphere) is its flash keyword.

Flash makes Cast Out more attractive for hyper-reactive decks like Esper Control. It also increases the card's cost, and the jump from three to four mana makes the cycling add-on a lot better. In the early-game against aggressive decks, having the option to ditch an O-Ring effect for a shot at drawing Supreme Verdict gives the card some welcomed flexibility.

Where it goes: Esper Control, UW Control (Think Twice builds), Pillow Fort

Censor

Well, it ain't Counterspell. But Censor has some makings of a Modern-playable card regardless. To explore Censor's role in Modern, we'll have to understand Mana Leak's two shortcomings.

First, Leak loses value in longer games. When opponents have seven lands, it gets really tough to counter their Fatal Push with Mana Leak. Leak then generates a unique tension in Modern control decks, which by their very nature strive to bring the game to a state in which Leak ceases to counter anything.

Second, Leak shines when it trades up on mana with enemy spells. In other words, it needs to counter spells that cost three or more to put casters ahead on tempo. Since Modern is so full of aggressive and linear decks, it's rare that Leak properly executes this function. If it's just going to hit Goblin Guide or Tarmogoyf, it might as well be a one-mana spell like Fatal Push.

Censor addresses both of these issues, at least to a degree. In longer games, it can simply be cycled away for something else. This second mode would have been incredible on Mana Leak, but it's less impressive here, as Censor is likely to lose in-game value much quicker than the Stronghold staple. Opponents only need to wait one turn to play around Censor, compared with three for Leak. Decks like Tron and Ad Nauseam, then, will have a much better time laughing it off.

As for trading up on mana, Censor still does that. Some of Leak's juiciest targets include Collected Company, Chord of Calling, Liliana of the Veil—Censor will always counter these spells on-curve, which is when they're most likely to pose problems (or even be cast).

In decks that put on enough pressure to keep Leak live the whole game, like Temur Delver, Censor seems pretty useless. But decks that want a two-mana permission spell and struggle to deal with Leak's downside in longer games, or ones that shift gears at some point to no longer need countermagic, should give it a try.

Where it goes: Jeskai Nahiri, Blue Tron

Pull from Tomorrow

Pull is probably the worst of this bunch. This card would have been awesome for UR Twin, but with that deck dead and gone, it mostly just lacks a home. The blue decks that do want a "draw X" effect don't mind splashing white for Sphinx's Revelation, which has lots of upside over Pull in its text box alone. White also gives control mages Path to Exile and Condemn, which are premier removal spells in Modern this season.

Trevor alluded this week to Pull being played in Scapeshift, but I don't see the Temur versions of that deck putting up results anytime soon. RG variants are much more proactive, an asset impossible to overstate in Modern. Pull doesn't solve that problem for green Cryptic Command decks.

All that said, I'd be surprised if Pull didn't find its way into a couple of Ux sideboards as a one-of. Grixis Control seems like the likeliest home for the card right now. Pull also opens up some deck design space for UB and Sultai, which just got their Bolt/Path analog in Fatal Push and can't hate having a Sphinx's Revelation analog too.

Where it goes: Grixis Control, Temur Scapeshift, UB Faeries

Glorious End

A beautifully designed card with plenty of unintuitive interactions. Time Stop has never been a competitive staple due to its steep mana cost, but Glorious End might be cheap enough to actually make some waves in Modern. If it does, we'll finally learn how to properly cast this kind of card!

Of course, there's also the drawback to worry about. Do we cast End on an opponent's upkeep and then win next turn? Or after they alpha-strike us during a board stall so we can crack-back for lethal? Or in response to a key spell they've been waiting to resolve? Or in response to the "lose the game" trigger from our last End, to get one more chance at winning?

All of these individual examples seem narrow and bad, but taken together, they present a good deal of flexibility. Add to that flexibility Glorious End's interaction with cards like Angel's Grace and Gideon of the Trials (and Sundial of the Infinite, as snubbed-Johnny-insurance), and we have ourselves a card that may see play in some interesting Modern decks.

Where it goes: Who knows?

The Bad

I also want to touch on a couple cards I believe have generated unwarranted hype.

Rhonas the Indomitable

Three mana for a bulky beater that doesn't do anything without another bulky beater in play. That's way too much to ask from a creature that dies to Path to Exile, Condemn, and Restore Balance without generating value.

Harsh Mentor

Burn's creatures each represent 4+ damage. How much will Mentor realistically deal? What does Burn cut to make room? Are those cuts worth readjusting the curve to pull away from other two-drops, which happen to be the best cards in the deck? Of Modern's non-Burn decks, only Zoo is aggressive enough to want Mentor, and they're too focused on curving Emissaries into Bushwhackers to waste time even with Eidolon of the Great Revel.

The Fun

Before I go, I want to remind everyone that there are multiple ways to play Modern. It's true that there's often a best deck or three for a given event. But at the local level, many players just sleeve up what they have, what looks interesting, or what they've been tuning for years. Smaller tournaments like FNMs are ideal settings to grow as a deckbuilder by challenging yourself to build cohesive piles of, well, trash.

Take this little Amonkhet-inspired number I've had some fun with online (and even some success!):

N(a)yan Cats, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Wild Nacatl
4 Steppe Lynx
4 Loam Lion
4 Scythe Tiger
4 Qasali Pridemage
4 Brimaz, King of Oreskos
4 Regal Caracal

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Path to Exile

Lands

4 Wooded Foothills
4 Windswept Heath
4 Arid Mesa
2 Stomping Ground
2 Temple Garden
1 Sacred Foundry
3 Flagstones of Trokair
2 Forest
1 Plains
1 Mountain

Sideboard

3 Rest in Peace
2 Stony Silence
2 Blood Moon
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Surgical Extraction
3 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
2 Pyroclasm

This deck is awesome at brute-forcing other creature decks, and the hoser enchantments in the side win a lot of games on their own.

Regal Caracal's whopping converted mana cost of 5 forces us into lots of lands, which luckily also supports two of Modern's most aggressively-costed cats, Steppe Lynx and Scythe Tiger. Another blessing in disguise is Tarmogoyf's Lhurgoyf creature type. Later, pal—let's run Rest in Peace instead!

Modern's deep card pool is a dream for brewers, and it only improves with each released expansion. Did I miss any standouts from Amonkhet? Have an Amonkhet-infused brew of your own to share? Hit me up in the comments.

Jordan Boisvert

Jordan is Assistant Director of Content at Quiet Speculation and a longtime contributor to Modern Nexus. Best known for his innovations in Temur Delver and Colorless Eldrazi, Jordan favors highly reversible aggro-control decks and is always striving to embrace his biases when playing or brewing.

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Posted in Modern, Opinion, SpoilersTagged , , , 21 Comments on Comprehensively Reviewing Amonkhet for Modern

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Insider: Speculating on the Amonkhet Spoilers

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Amonkhet is poised to shakeup the Standard metagame with a ton of great new cards, and a long-lasting impact on Modern is assured with the printing of Cycling dual lands and other cards with potential in the format. Spoiled cards are already having a real impact on the market, so today I am going to run down what cards have been impacted, and what other cards I am keeping my eyes on as potential spec targets.

Recently the spoiler was flooded with playable Zombie cards, and at this point there’s the critical mass necessary to create a true Zombie tribal deck in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Relentless Dead

The biggest beneficiary of this has been Relentless Dead, which has spiked to a new high around $8. It’s clear that Zombie decks are going to be graveyard-oriented, and sacrificing creatures is a subtheme to black in Amonkhet, so it’s sure to generate value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptbreaker

All of the Zombies in Standard have seen their competitive stock rise, and thus cards like the staple Cryptbreaker are starting to trend upwards in price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Prized Amalgam

Wayward Servant points to a white Zombie deck, but blue already has fantastic tools including Prized Amalgam and even Gisa and Geralf, so I’m paying close attention to them. These cards have already seem some small gains online.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Choked Estuary

One way to bet on Zombies going blue, and the rise of blue control because of new tools in Amonkhet, is Choked Estuary, which is trending upwards online.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Port Town

Another way to ride the incoming wave of control is Port Town, which is especially attractive given that Blue-White is likely to be the competitive Drake Haven-cycling deck of choice with cards like Cast Out and Renewed Faith.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Void Winnower

Liliana, Death's Majesty is technically on the Zombie theme, but beyond its ability to make Zombies and mill cards is its ability to reanimate a creature. The most powerful creature in Standard to reanimate may be Void Winnower, and its online price moving upwards for the past few days makes me think others have caught on. It’s paper price is barely above rock bottom at $2, and it has a lot of long-term potential as a big Eldrazi, so this could be a great long-term buy with the potential to spike if it breaks out in Standard.

The biggest story from Amonkhet is the cycling dual lands, and they are going to be widely played in Standard while enabling niche decks in Modern.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Life from the Loam

The cycling lands elevate Life from the Loam to a new level in Modern, and will enable more dedicated land decks with cards like Seismic Assault. The price has moved down to around $20 after reaching nearly $30, and I don’t suspect we will see it move back up until a deck using the cycling lands prove itself.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Splendid Reclamation

One of the most promising ways to use the cycling duals in Standard is to reanimate them with Splendid Reclamation, which has spike to over $2. This one is already falling and I don’t see it moving back up unless a deck using it becomes tier one, which is unlikely.

There was an error retrieving a chart for The Gitrog Monster

Another beneficiary of the Cycling lands is The Gitrog Monster, which can draw two cards for the price of cycling one. Up to over $2 and heading up, this one isn’t likely to fall back down anytime soon, and there’s certainly room to grow if it becomes a tier-one card. Black-Green in general will be on the rise with new tools like Manglehorn, so I wouldn’t count out The Gitrog Monster. It also has plenty of long-term casual appeal

Exert has gotten the attention of the community with very powerful spoilers like Glorybringer and Glory-Bound Initiate. Exert cards work very well with vigilance, thus the spike of Always Watching.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Always Watching

Over $3, this card could head up towards $4 before peaking, but the long-term has this card moving nowhere but down. It’s spike has been extreme and based on speculation, and while exert is likely to have some Constructed impact, it won’t dominate enough to see Always Watching move upwards. I’d sell these and move on.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thalia's Lieutenant

Another way to speculate on the Always Watching and exert hype are Human cards like Thalia's Lieutenant, which has been steadily moving upwards online to its highest price since before the release of Kaladesh.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Crumbling Ashes

The most peculiar spike since the spoilers began has been Crumbling Ashes, which works very well with and against Amonkhet’s -1/-1 counter theme. There doesn’t seem to be any real competitive application here, so it looks like a purely casual and EDH spec. It’s a testament to the power of the non-competitive player on the market, and it’s indication that even the most forgotten casual card can enter the limelight when reinvigorated by new cards.

There have been some Modern cards on the move that don't seem related to Amonkhet, but also weren’t reprinted in Modern Masters 2017 and have gained in the metagame since.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ad Nauseam

A prime example is Ad Nauseam, which is a key part of its eponymous combo deck. It spiked from over $7 to $13 and is now stable at around $11. I don’t see this falling down below $10, but I also can’t see it really moving upwards. Assuming that more and more players are moving to the deck, one way to spec would be on cards in the deck that haven’t moved, like Phyrexian Unlife, which has been stable at $2 but is now six years old with limited supply.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Melira, Sylvok Outcast

A New Phyrexia card that is on the move is Melira, Sylvok Outcast, which spiked from $5 to over $8. It’s not going to see a reprint anytime soon, and it’s being used in Commander as a general, specifically in competitive games, in addition to all of its Modern potential in Abzan Company decks, so this one isn’t falling and will continue to appreciate over time.

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Manamorphose escaped a reprint, and now it too is growing in price like other marquee commons and uncommons that appreciated after Modern Masters 2017, with both printings over $6 and approaching $7.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Predict

On the Legacy front, keep an eye on Predict, which has seen massive growth recently from under $1 to $4. It has been used in Miracles for years to generate card advantage, and niche use in the last use by players in-the-know has grown to becoming a staple in the archetype. Most of the growth is behind it, but there won’t be more of these printed and more and more players are adopting it, so I expect it will continue to appreciate in the long-term.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Doomsday

Both printings of Doomsday have seen a small spike, and increase in trading leads me to believe the price of this unique card will continue to move upwards.

Insider: Amonkhet Powerhouse Cards

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Theros has nothing on Amonkhet's gods! Some of the new gods are looking pretty easy to turn on. Not only that, but we have some amazing new planeswalkers and some great build-around-me cards for our Constructed formats as well. Today, we’ll take a look at what’s happening on the spoiler and break it all down. Let’s go!

Gods

The god creature type, first from Theros block and now Amonkhet, is a potent combination of permanent and creature. Unlike the Theros gods, Amonkhet's gods are always creatures, so removal spells can target them even if they're not turned on. We are still limited in our targeting, though, because they are indestructible.

Last week, we discussed Hazoret, the Fervent, the new red god from this plane. Today, we have three more gods to discuss. We may see some multi-colored gods from this set, but I think at the least we will get the black one to complete the mono-colored cycle. Who knows, though – maybe, just maybe, Nicol Bolas will be a god as well. That would be epic!

Oketra the True

oketrathetrue1

Sheesh, that’s a lot of abilities! All of the gods seems to have many different aspects to their cards, and that includes the first one up. Oketra, the white god, seems like a great mana investment. The card may read 3/6, but thanks to double strike, it acts like a 6/6. Tokens seems like a theme for white in this set as well, so it should be fairly easy to active. I think Oketra can do what Heliod, God of the Sun could not: see play in Standard.

Oketra is preordering for right around $10, which is the price point I was thinking for this card. I don’t think there is money to be made buying in at this price point, but keep an eye out for a dip if it doesn't find a home in Standard right away. From a player perspective, there are so many other great cards in this set that this price seems great for what it does.

Kefnet the Mindful

kefnetthemindful1

So let’s say you don’t do anything else but play lands for turns one through three. If you are on the play, you’ll be down to five cards after you cast Kefnet. If you’re on the draw, you could attack or block on turn four after your draw step, but then if you play any cards you’ll be back under the required card amount.

The nice thing is that we can play card-draw spells to draw back up to the maximum hand size necessary. Unfortunately, we don’t have a lot of good options in Standard to help us right now. Glimmer of Genius has been the most used card-drawer, but I’m not sure it will be enough. There is a new card, Pull from Tomorrow, an instant, which costs XUU and reads, "Draw X cards, then discard a card." That might be enough. My point, though, is that keeping Kefnet active as a creature is a difficult feat.

What if you don’t care about this permanent being a creature, though? What if the purpose of the blue god in your deck is to act as an enchantment that allows you to pay four mana to draw a card whenever you’re not interacting with your opponent? Now that sounds like a proposition I can get on board with. You can play it on a turn when you weren’t going to do anything anyway, and then draw extra cards throughout the game. You could even play Pull from Tomorrow as additional card draw and maybe turn on Kefnet as a win condition late in the game.

At $5 or less, you are not making a big commitment with this god. I don’t think the mindful one will be breaking the bank anytime soon, but I could see it being an important two-of in a control strategy.

Rhonas the Indomitable

rhonastheindomitable

Rhonas the Indomitable has successfully drawn my attention. In addition to the normal indestructible key word on all the gods, Rhonas also gets deathtouch. He’s already a 5/5, but there can be bigger creatures than that in Standard.

Rhonas looks amazing, and unlike Kefnet’s difficulty to activate, the green god shouldn’t be nearly that hard. He could slot right into GB, as the deck already builds big dudes thanks to all the +1/+1 counters floating around, but we could also see a new green strategy emerge around werewolves like Lambholt Pacifist again.

The pump ability of +2/+0 and trample is generically powerful, and it only costs three mana. There might even be board states that you activate this ability twice to force a trade with bigger creatures or to get enough damage through blockers to win the game.

This is quite a nice scenario for Rhonas the Indomitible, and his price tag reflects it. Despite there being more expensive planeswalkers in the set, which we’ll dive into next, Rhonas is still holding strong at just under $20. The gods generate a lot of hype, but this time, I think Rhonas will find a deck to help attack the format.

Planeswalkers

Gideon of the Trials

gideonofthetrials

"Let me tell you, we definitely needed a powerful white planeswalker. It’s about time we had one in the format." Nobody is saying that right now in reference to a second Gideon in Standard. Shaving off a mana is a big deal for a great planeswalker.

Wizards seems to have pushed the gods a little more with their cheaper mana costs, and that mentality helped the planeswalkers as well. Unfortunately (or luckily, depending on your perspective), this planeswalker is named Gideon. One of my biggest gripes about planeswalkers in Standard is that the ones I want to play always have the same name. This has happened with multiple iterations of Garruk and now Gideon and Liliana! Maybe this is done for game balancing as well as storyline purposes, but it would be nice to be able to play these ‘walkers alongside one another.

We may still be able to include both Gideons in the same deck, though, because the emblem on Gideon of the Trials encourages us to have a Gideon in play at all times. Not losing the game is definitely powerful.

I’ll be honest, I’m still trying to figure out how good this Gideon really is, so let’s break it down and see if that helps. First up, we have a mana cost of three. It doesn’t get much better than that. Tibalt, the Fiend-Blooded was two mana, but although he’s hugely popular casually and sells really well, he’s still unplayable in Constructed Magic. Three mana seems to be the best fit for competitively costed ‘walkers.

The mana cost is awesome, sure, but what about the abilities? "Until your next turn, prevent all damage target permanent would deal." It's solid that you can target Heart of Kiran while it’s not a creature, Shambling Vent, or any problematic permanent. That sounds good to me.

The emblem is obviously good, so let’s talk about making him a 4/4. This ability is almost as good as Gideon, Ally of Zendikar’s ability that makes him a 5/5, and we’ve all lost to that guy tons of times. So if each of the three abilities seem great, then what’s the hang up? My big question is what deck wants to play this three-mana Gideon? A card is often only as good as the deck it's played in. For example, would Winding Constrictor ever be talked about in Standard without Rishkar, Peema Renegade? Maybe, but it’s doubtful. I don’t think Gideon of the Trials is better than his predecessor, though, so if anything, we should be playing both in the same deck. Only time will tell.

Thirty dollars seems like a lot for my level of uncertainty. I think a lot of this price tag is hype that the card won’t live up to. I’d expect the new Gideon to dip under $20 quickly after release. What do you guys think? Am I undervaluing an amazing new three-mana planeswalker? Let me know in the comments.

Liliana, Death’s Majesty

lilianadeathsmajesty

With Liliana we have the exact same problem as with Gideon. We already have a great version, Liliana, the Last Hope, in Standard. She’s seeing play in Modern too. Now, we are getting a bigger version with Liliana, Death's Majesty.

With that being said: I love her! Not only does she have amazing art, but all her abilities are great too. Lilly can now stand next to Gideon, Ally of Zendikar and make a huge army of 2/2s. This endless stream of threats is really difficult for opponents to overcome.

In addition to the army-in-a-can ability, Lilly can also reanimate creatures! There aren’t many options for the Reanimator archetype currently available in Standard. We have Ever After or if we are working with Allies, March from the Tomb. We don’t necessarily have to be solely a reanimator deck for Lilly to be good, though. She can just bring back whatever creature you’d like during the game.

So, between both her plus and minus abilities and her ultimate, which keeps your zombies and wipes everything else out, new Lilly seems really great. She’s preselling for $17, and unless a new Reanimator deck forms around her, I don’t think she will hold that price, but she should stay close to that.

Nissa, Steward of the Elements

nissastewardofelements

Last up, we have my pick for the best of the three new planeswalkers in Nissa, Steward of Elements. Finally we have a non-Kiora blue-green ‘walker, AKA a playable one. The new Nissa, our third in the format (fourth if you count the planeswalker-deck version), is the first of her type to have X in the casting cost. That’s an exciting development that I never thought would happen. So the later in the game you cast her, the more potent she can be. If you have ten mana lying around, you can cast her and ultimate her in the same turn.

Barring crazy late-game shenanigans like that, Nissa is amazing on any other turn of the game too. I think most of the time we will see her cast for three mana and +2 up to three loyalty. Scry 2 is not the same as drawing a card, but it’s setting your draw every turn, which can help set you on the course to victory.

Her zero ability does gain you advantage. You set your deck up with some cheap casting-cost cards, scry them appropriately to the top of your deck and you can then put them in play for free! These two abilities work so well together and can be great in a number of strategies.

I think this card can see play in Modern as well as Standard. Can you imagine getting Tarmogoyf or Scavenging Ooze in play for free with Nissa? It’s going to happen. Although I'm excited by the card, history tells us that even the best cards in post-Expedition sets will drop quite a bit after release. Nissa could very well end up being the most expensive card in the set, but she should still drop from the $30 where she is now.

There are a ton more interesting cards in the set that we will break down next week. See you then!

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter

Amonkhet Spoilers and Past Comparisons

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Every time spoiler season rolls around, I get retrospective. Normally, Magic-related retrospection occurs around New Year’s, when writers across the community produce their inevitable “Top 10 of 20xx” lists. I guess it makes sense, then, that while everyone else is looking forward to the new set, I’m looking back at what we’re leaving behind. Perhaps it's because I enjoy tweaking and solving old formats more than brewing for new ones. Don’t get me wrong, I love a classic set release as much as the next guy. I just can’t resist putting my own unique spin on things.

So, today we’ll being diving into Amonkhet spoilers, but with a twist: each new card discussion will be paired with a memory of or comparison to a card or strategy from Modern's past. Maybe this will flop, maybe you’ll find it interesting. It’s reminiscing time.

The God Cycle

It’s hard to look at Amonkhet's Gods without comparing them to the Theros Five. While none of the old cycle made a significant impact in Modern, Thassa, God of the Sea did show up in a few Merfolk lists here and there before eventually being dropped for stronger, more powerful options. I have seen a few tokens lists try and make Purphoros work, but for the most part the Gods lorded over Standard without doing much in Modern.

Unfortunately, I see the same thing happening with this cycle. While both cycles of Gods share the indestructible keyword, in Modern the Theros bunch often benefited from rarely being creatures. Path to Exile is still one of the best removal spells in the format. Kefnet, the Mindful does have a cheap mana cost, but unfortunately we’ll only ever have enough time to take advantage of any of its abilities in rare blue control mirrors and the grindiest of midrange matchups. Still, if it sticks, getting to Azure Mage our opponent to death definitely sounds cool. Unfortunately, better options exist at this point and Kefnet's narrow applications won’t be worth a sideboard slot.

Rhonas the Indomitable is probably the most “pushed” of any of the new Gods, but Modern might find it difficult to take advantage of its strengths. Mono-Green Stompy seems like the best fit on day one, but it could potentially go anywhere Tarmogoyf does. I love the synergy between Rhonas and Dungrove Elder on turn four; between indestructible and hexproof, we’ve got quite a lot of protection for mono-green. Still, you have to wonder: how often would we rather just have Leatherback Baloth?

Gideon of the Trials

I look at this guy and immediately think Jace Beleren. No, I’m not crazy, and I’m aware Gideon of the Trials will probably be nuts in Standard and possibly see Modern play as well. I just love the three-cost planeswalker that sits around, minding its own business, not looking that dangerous until all of a sudden you look up and you’re dead. His abilities are all solid enough to be pesky, yet he’s weak enough to Lightning Bolt that I feel like the format can keep him in check. Tick him up to four, emblem, and swing a few times with Wall of Omens and removal/counterspells to keep opponents busy... Suddenly, they're staring down a myriad of problems. Maybe the competition here is Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, whom apparently nobody wants to attack but also can’t afford to ignore.

Does Ad Nauseam play this guy? I have to imagine they do, seeing as white “can’t lose the game” permanents are right up their alley. Is it a sideboard card that they bring in, knowing that this guy probably dies pretty quickly in game one’s? Do they play it maindeck as just another way to buy a little time? Their primary plan is still to cast the combo off Lotus Bloom, so 12 plus 8 combo pieces can’t possibly be a bad thing. I don’t think we’ll see Ad Nauseam tempo-ing opponents out anytime soon, but I guess anything is possible.

As Foretold

Day's Undoing was the first card I thought of when I saw As Foretold, but only because it was another blue mythic that cost three and was supposed to turn Modern upside down. Remember all the talk of it rocketing Affinity to the stars? No, really what I’m thinking of here is Goblin Dark Dwellers, but only if you intend on using Foretold for anything other than Restore Balance. Getting an Ancestral Vision immediately isn't as "free" as it sounds when you consider the three-mana upfront investment. But I’m imagining the extra value that comes from being able to essentially tack on an extra spell to all of your turns past the first turn this comes down. It’s not that great, seeing as those extra cards we're casting don't appear out of thin air, but still, spending more mana than our opponent is one of the best ways to ensure victory in Modern.

In the end, I doubt this thing makes it out of the trial stages in non-Restore Balance lists, but could definitely see it turning things around there. Check out the awesome work done already on this site concerning that topic. Still, the effect is unique enough that if anything was to shake things up in Modern this go round, As Foretold might be the one to do it.

Pull From Tomorrow

You know where I’m going with this. Sphinx's Revelation for one less mana, without white, and without lifegain. Decks with white will just play Rev, but those without? I don’t see Merfolk playing this—the maindeck is just too tight and would rather have more Vapor Snag or Dismember. Relic of Progenitus is probably better if you want more cards. Even from the board, Negate is a better card against the grindy matchups where you’d want extra cards.

Scapeshift, on the other hand? This thing is a gamechanger. Scapeshift suffers from the issue of wasting the most mana of any archetype in the format, as its entire strategy is “live until the seventh land drop.” If the opponent doesn’t play along and cast things into Cryptic Command, Scapeshift has to scramble to use all that wasted mana in some fashion to generate an advantage. I would be surprised if this spell didn’t make the list as a two-of, either in the maindeck or somewhere in the 75.

Champion of Rhonas

The comparison here is Nahiri, the Harbinger, except that Champion is probably worse. Yes, we can put Emrakul into play, but why are we playing Emrakul in our probably-aggressive green deck? 3/3 stats are unfortunate as well, especially when we have to pay four mana. If Champion were a 3/2 that cost 3, or even a 3/1, I’d be excited, as RG Breach decks could play it alongside Tarmogoyf and Lightning Bolt to just beat down opponents loading up on counterspells, discard, and Stone Rain. Still, the math works out right that this thing is coming down on turn three in that deck anyways, so maybe it can still be considered a three-drop.

I know it isn’t that easy, since if we’re playing this on turn three that means we’re not playing Tarmogoyf on turn two (unless we suspended a Search for Tomorrow), but I can’t help but be intrigued. Obstinate Baloth post-board is a nice creature sub-package, and Champion of Rhonas can serve a similar role while acting as another way to sneak in a Primeval Titan. Don’t sleep on this one.

Nissa, Steward of Elements

I have no idea. I’ve got to be honest, I’m just pretty blown away by the creativity here. X in the casting cost a planeswalker card? Of course! It seems so simple, yet I’ve never thought of it before. Cast it for three early, cast it for eight late, cast it for five in the mid-game. A +2 option on a “cheap” planeswalker should always be looked at closely, and while blue-green isn't the most successful color combination in Modern, it's not unheard of. This thing won’t make it into Scapeshift, but maybe a Temur tempo deck could take advantage. I doubt it makes it, as the Temur deck has other problems that Nissa doesn’t solve, but I’m rooting from the sidelines that it sees play. It’s been a while since spoilers have given me that “woah” reaction, but Nissa took my breath away. As she does.

Conclusion

As of right now, there don't look to be any slam-dunks for Modern in Amonkhet, unless As Foretold is the real deal and brings Restore Balance into the spotlight. Still, we’ve got around 100 cards left to go, and there are still a couple rares/mythics in that pool. If nothing changes, I’m happy, but I wouldn’t mind a couple new toys shaking up the format a bit. There’s been a lot of talk of Death’s Shadow being too strong lately, but I feel like those concerns are a little blown out of proportion at this point. Dredge is back in the number two spot on MTGGoldfish this week, which isn’t cause for alarm by any stretch. If it stays there once people dust off their graveyard removal, then we’ll have something to talk about.

Thanks for reading,
Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

Insider: Watching and Waiting (Too Long)

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Hey there. So you all watch the movers and shakers at MTGstocks.com every week, right? That and MythicSpoiler.com are two of the most important tabs to have open during spoiler season, and most of you probably noticed a little near-bulk rare jumping by 100 percent this past week.

On the back of the recently spoiled exert mechanic, Always Watching was being closely, well, watched. A bunch of people on Reddit bought into the hype of being able to exert your Glory-Bound Initiate every turn, and now we have $3 Always Watchings. Personally, I had been begrudgingly picking these up for the past few months with very few people pointing at them from the other side of the display case. It had gotten to the point where I was paying $.25 on a $1.50 card, and people were still okay with that because of its lackluster performance.

gloryboundinitiate

I hope my readers don't take that as a humblebrag "still have all these" introduction, because it's not. To be honest, I don't even want to "still have all these" by the end of the week. This is the kind of card with a graph shaped like a bell curve, and you want to out these immediately before waiting to see if results push it any further up the ladder. Possible spoiler alert: the chances are very low that this card reaches anything higher than $3.

Unfortunately, the card is in that awkward price category where most people don't feel comfortable listing it on TCGplayer. We've talked a bit about scaling TCGplayer fees in previous articles, but I'll go over it quick again for those who are new to the classroom.

TCGplayer takes 10.5 percent plus a flat 50-cent fee per transaction, and that's before the costs of postage and shipping materials. If we round up to 55 cents for the stamp, top loader and envelope, we're losing almost $1.50 on a $3.00 card on TCGplayer. Yikes. For people who still manage to trade at their LGS, those are ghoulish margins. You're losing 50 percent of the card's current market value by throwing it up on TCGplayer, which is obviously unacceptable if you're trying to offload something like a Polluted Delta or a Karn Liberated for any kind of value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Always Watching

Maybe you were already speculating on Always Watching, or maybe you just have a playset in your binder. I'm here today on Quiet Speculation to tell you to sell them now. Like, pause your reading this article, go list them on TCGplayer and cross your fingers. Open up a buylist cart with Card Kingdom or ABU Games, and dump them at an even juicier $1.70 to $1.80 each. If you can move a playset at once, even better. You do not want to hold out for the rest of the exert cards, because they already previewed the mythic one. By holding these, you're taking a gamble that's significantly out of your favor. Presently, the TCGplayer low on this white-weenie enchantment is around $3.50, but the market price still hasn't adjusted.

watching

Another excellent way to take advantage of this is your local Facebook groups. Most of the time, selling cards on Facebook quickly and efficiently involves selling for the equivalent of 10 percent less than TCGplayer low with free shipping. At least that's how I do it.

Want to know how to do it faster? Ship these puppies off at $8 playsets to your locals, giving them a better deal than they'll find anywhere else, while also unloading your copies before they risk plummeting. You might be selling to someone who's already crafting their exert deck, or to the greater fool who thinks this card can hit $5 or $6. Doesn't matter. You got in at $1 or less, you can get out at $2. That's how this game works.

This works even better if you advertise the exact percentage off of TCGplayer low that you're trying to out cards at; I highly recommend it with any of those awkward $2 to $4 Standard playables that are too annoying to buylist or sell on TCGplayer, like Traverse the Ulvenwald, Metallic Mimic, Spire of Industry, etc. Waiting too long to move a card for profit is something we've all fallen victim to at one point or another. While I often like to talk up my success on Heartless Summoning, I didn't unload all 100-plus of them in time to fully capitalize on the opportunity. I still have some playsets that went back into the long-term spec box, because I was being too greedy about my margins.

Speaking of margins on recently spiked cards, let's talk about this "sell immediately for lower margins on spiked cards" on a slightly higher scale. Restore Balance finally hit its stride, and boy, do I feel vindicated. All those weeks of waiting and hoping, finally paying off. Well, kind of. I've been so busy with school, my internship and my job, that I actually haven't had time to sell them. My TCGplayer store is hidden, and all 100-plus copies of Restore Balance sat on my desk this week, mocking me. Let's talk about what I would have done, had I the time to dedicate to Magic that I want to.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Restore Balance

Untitled

As you can see from this beautiful and sexy graph, we finally got there on that one card that I've been talking about for at least two years. It peaked at around $15 on TCGplayer the day when As Foretold was spoiled, while I was stuck in my internship from 9:00 to 4:00 then class from 5:00 to 8:00. During those key hours of people scrambling to pick up the copies they wanted for their decks, you had an opportunity to list them for $13 while matching the lowest listing on TCGplayer.

If you're someone who buys into cards based on shaky and irrational hype, what are you going to do when you see someone listing them for $9 a piece or $32 per playset? That's right, you buy those immediately. As someone who currently owns 100-plus Restore Balances, that's kind of what I wish I had been able to do. Now the TCGplayer low is around $10, and I'm going to hope and get $9 each for my copies. It's still more than a double-up considering I got most of these at $2.50 or $3, but still a less delicious victory than I had originally planned, considering how I had my finger on the pulse of this card for so long.

End Step

Personally, I can't wait until the summer when I have more time to dedicate to Magic. While it may be the doldrums of activity in the finance community while everyone else plays outside, it's my time of freedom from internships and school and "regular job" that allow me to really pour a lot of time into my passion that is this children's trading card game.

Let me know in the comments section below what you want to hear about next week!

Insider: QS Cast #60: Vendor Series- ABUGames with Gabe Wilson!

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Play

The QS Cast has returned: Chaz Volpe, and Tarkan Dospil continue on with where the cast left off and in this episode they discuss the following:

  • Esteemed guest President and CEO of ABUGames Gabriel Wilson joins the cast!
  • Opens discussion about ABU - how they started, and their growth in merchant space.
  • Exclusive: First discussion about ABUGames website change, launch plan, and new features that will be added to the website!
  • ABU's operational structure - Policies and procedures, card grading, etc.
  • ABU being best in class for buylist credit: 35%-50%!
  • Discussion about being a large vendor in current market. Is it becoming more difficult? Online vs large LGS business?
  • ABU's thoughts on "Magic Finance."
  • Is Magic healthy and thriving?
  • WOTC's reprint policy, increased product volume. How does ABU adapt to those changes? Is the secondary market threatened? Views on their policies and decisions.
  • Check out ABUGames - we urge everyone to use their services, they're amazing!
  • Utilize ABU's Buylist - 50% store credit bonus!

We want to personally thank Gabe for joining us on the QS Cast! We can't wait for the exciting new website and all the new features in store for all ABU's customers. We think these are game changing ideas and will be well received by all Magic players.

We look forward to hosting ABUGames again soon!

 

As always, please comment and leave questions for us to address on the next cast! We will be making QS Insider questions a priority, and we want to know what you want covered.

Enjoy! We’re glad to be back.

Find us on Twitter: @ChazVMTG  @the_tark @ABUGAMES

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Chaz V

Started playing during Invasion block at the age of 13. Always a competitive person by nature, he continues playing to this day. Got into the financial aspect of the game as a method to pay for the hobby and now writes, Podcasts, and covers all aspects of the game, always trying to contribute to the community and create great content for readers and listeners.

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