| Quiet Speculation

Fundamentals: Playtesting Actively

Posted on September 20, 2022September 19, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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When I see players jamming games in between rounds at the Local Game Store and they tell me they're playtesting, I'm deeply skeptical. I don't doubt that they're learning something by playing games. In fact, it'd be alarming if that wasn't happening. However, playing games isn't the same thing as actually testing. It's an important component, to be sure, but actual testing is closer to work than play. Testing is an act of active learning. Just playing games is passive learning at best.

If this sounds rather familiar, that's good. It means that you read last week's article. This is a direct continuation of that discussion. Once a deck has been put through enough goldfishing to ensure that it actually works and the pilot is minimally competent, then it's time to actually playtest the deck. This requires playing actual games but isn't just playing games. Players looking to test for tournaments and develop need to get serious about testing. This involves actual work.

Active Learning vs Passive Learning

When I said testing is active learning while just playing is passive learning, readers in the education field almost certainly took up arms over said terms. Everyone else was just confused. How can actually playing games be passive, and why isn't that ok? To the first group: Chill, this isn't about the academic debate. To the latter, it's not an either-or thing. Both active and passive learning have their uses, but players need to be aware of what they're doing to maximize testing efficiency and results.

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To simplify the linked Wikipedia articles, active learning requires students to be actively involved in teaching themselves while passive just requires them to absorb information. This probably sounds contradictory, but the way most players playtest is very passive. They sit down, play some games, and intend to absorb the lessons the match gives them. There's nothing inherently wrong with that.

There was an error retrieving a chart for By Force

However, it does mean that the lessons that can be learned from this are dependent on the random chance inherent in the games. Whatever happens, happens, and thus whatever lessons happen, happens. If a player wants to learn something specific, they cannot rely on passively waiting for it to happen. Take an active role and set up to learn what needs to be learned.

Test Scenarios

Case in point, at the end of last week's article, I said that if there is something specific that needs to be tested, then test it. Just test it. Set up the scenario that you want to test rather than passively waiting for it to happen organically in-game. Waiting for it to happen "naturally" is passive learning. It's hoping that the relevant information will come and also stick. Setting up what specifically needs to be tested is active learning and needs to happen too.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Test of Talents

Players are, in my experience, perfectly fine passively learning via playing games and seeing what happens. However, if I tell them to set up the exact circumstances they want to test, they balk. The justification for said resistance is always some variant of "it's not natural." The feeling is that only data from games is valid. This is wrong.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Natural Order

If something is worth wondering about, it's worth understanding. When that question lingers despite repeated test games, it obviously doesn't come up enough to definitively answer in normal games. Therefore, the only way to see it enough is to force the scenario to happen. Doing anything else is just wasting time.

I'm not saying that playing a game normally as part of testing isn't useful. I am saying that doing so is insufficient and players need to take more agency during testing. Especially more intense, tournament-focused testing.

Testing the Hard Way

From my experience, most players are very lackadaisical towards testing. Even serious players would rather treat testing as hanging out time, with most of the learning coming via post-mortem dissection. Which I do, absolutely and unequivocally, understand. Hanging out with friends is far more enjoyable than actually working. However, for players like me, it is necessary to break out of that mindset.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hard Evidence

I have a lot of ambition as a Magic player. I want to win, keep winning, and win at the highest level. However, I don't have the natural talent and luck that help the best players make it look easy. I've seen plenty of them do exactly that, and envy is but the tip of my ensuing emotional iceberg. No, if I want to do well, I need to work for it. Hard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Midnight Oil

Which is exactly what I did at the grindiest time in my life. In 2014-2015, grinding Magic was my job. I was traveling to every event I could, testing as much as possible, and playing as much as finances and travel time allowed. I cashed more tournaments in that period than the rest of my life, probably combined. It paid off when I made it to Pro Tour Khans of Tarkir, making Day 2 of my first and so far only Pro Tour.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jeskai Ascendancy

Which I should mention, was despite all my drafts going horribly awry and my Jeskai deck being suboptimal. I could never figure out the right top end and just split the difference having run out of time. However, the work I'd put into testing everything beforehand let me sufficiently navigate past my shortcomings to kinda-almost-get there anyway. Here's the system I had then, parts of which I still use despite not having time for all of it anymore.

Step 1: Change Testing Tools

The biggest suggestion I can make is to not test with actual Magic cards. Use universal proxies instead. I know that sounds weird, but there are two reasons not to test with the actual deck. The first is purely financial as it saves wear and tear on real cards and sleeves. Yes, I really was that big of a penny-pincher once. However, it also forces players to think harder about the game and to actually understand their cards.

Universal Proxies

The first thing is to make universal proxies. Normally, when players make proxies they Sharpie lands with enough information to identify a specific card. Instead, make proxies that could be any card:

Step 1: Make a grid. It should have four columns and enough rows for the number of cards in the test deck. For a 60-card deck, that means a 4 x 15 grid.

Step 2: Proxy enough lands so that each one corresponds to one of the boxes in the grid. Mark them only with the grid coordinate, i.e. A1, G3, D4. No jokes about battleships or the sinking thereof. I've already made them all. Sleeving is optional, but I'd only use otherwise busted-up non-tournament usable sleeves. Pinching pennies and all that.

Step 3: Fill in the grid. Each row should contain as many of the same cards as possible. For example, if a deck plays four Ponder, then B1, B2, B3, and B4 should all be Ponder. If it's only two, then B3 and B4 and fill in B1 and B2 with a different two-of. Don't mix and match, it makes it hard to keep track of everything. The order of the cards doesn't matter, feel free to input the cards in whatever order makes sense.

Step 4: Repeat the process for everyone involved in testing.

Step 5: Have the Oracle text for each card available, either via Scryfall or Gatherer.

Why Proxies?

I'll preface that I didn't come up with this idea. The original idea came from a Star City Games article from years ago. There's no link because I don't remember who wrote it or the name and my Google-fu wasn't strong enough to find it again. I have refined that idea heavily so that it's not really recognizable anymore, but I always cite my sources.

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Anyway, the purpose behind these proxies is to break familiarity with the cards. So many players play their cards on autopilot without really thinking about the cards themselves. At some point, everyone gets more used to playing (and even seeing) their card as they remember it being used. I know what Lightning Bolt does, I don't need to read the card. For simple cards that might be true. However, I've watched players misplay their cards so often by adding or subtracting functionality that this is a serious concern.

Playing with proxies breaks that familiarity because to know what a card does requires looking at the grid for identification, then to the Oracle for what it does. It retrains the brain away from what it thinks a card does to what it actually does.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sunscape Familiar

Also, it speeds up testing in the long run. When finished testing one deck, grab another deck grid instead of making another. Rather than physically replacing cards during deck refinement, just change the grid. It saves a lot of time fiddling around with cards.

Playing With Proxies

Of course, in the short run using just proxy decks will be awkward. Getting used to looking up the cards will slow players down for the first few iterations. However, it gets much easier over time.

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Playing with the proxies is no different than playing with actual cards. It just requires checking the grid to see what the cards are. Where it gets weird is that the first time that any non-basic land card is played, the player must read out loud the full and unabridged Oracle text. This is essential so that every player knows what's happening and is key to the retraining bit from above. Subsequent plays don't need to be read out in full but repeat this process for every game. Not match, game.

Additionally, any time there is any question about a card, read out the full Oracle text. No cutting corners, no assumptions, just hard data.

Step 2: Record Everything

I do mean everything. Every decision made and why, every observation and thought, wins and losses, and every single data point should be recorded for dissection and discussion afterward. It's best to write them down so as to keep the opponent in the dark, but do whatever works.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reki, the History of Kamigawa

Also, record the game in video form. This will be a lot easier for anyone today because phone cameras actually work now and are good. Back in 2014, I was fiddling with a full digital camera that didn't like to focus. Today's webcams and smartphones are vastly superior. It's critical to record every play and every single card drawn in a match and the order in which they were drawn for the purpose of Step 3b.

Step 3a: Play Matches

With the test decks built, now start playing the test matches. For the first few, play typical Magic matches, but play them to their conclusion. Don't concede, don't assume defeat or victory. Play until someone actually loses. Hard locks are an acceptable win. There are many ways that a match can turn around. Use testing to look for those opportunities.

On that note, play all three games in a match. Even if one deck just blows the other out convincingly in two, play the third one anyway. There's value in playing as many individual games as possible, but more importantly, more game threes mean more opportunity to test sideboards, which are often undertested relative to the maindeck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stony Silence

After some number of standard matches, stop playing normal games and start the hard testing. How many matches depend on the player, I usually play 10-20. The purpose of the typical matches is to learn how the match works, which cards matter and why, and if the sideboard strategy is appropriate. Once there's a reasonable answer established, it's time to start digging in.

Step 3b: Replay Matches

Did the match hinge on a certain decision, or was a mistake critical? Back the game up to that point and find out. Use the recording to rebuild the boardstate to that moment, with the right cards in each player's hand, and try the game again. Put the cards back in the exact order that they were drawn. Or even separate them from the deck and just draw from the pile until the whole library needs to be shuffled.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rewind

This allows players to really dissect their decisions and get into how valid their instincts were and refine them. It's possible that the decision didn't really matter, and defeat was inevitable from that position. If that's the case, then finding out and subsequently determining if the original line was best is very useful. If there was a better option, how obvious was it originally, and how can it be found more easily in the future?

I don't know how useful it actually is, but back in 2014, I'd also insist on backing games up all the way to the beginning and switching who was on the play vs the draw. Many games will play out very differently and there can be insights to be gained, but many hands are unkeepable on the play vs the draw. It feels like doing this would be useful, but I've never been sure.

Step 4: Test Scenarios

For all the reasons already stated, test scenarios. The rest of the testing up until now should have identified corner cases, specific interactions, sequencing lines, and other interesting data that should be looked into. Set them up and then dissect them. There's something there worth learning. Find it.

Step 5: Analyze and Adjust

This is the really critical part. Up until now, the decks shouldn't have changed from the first match. The whole plan was to test that deck, and only now is there the data to know if it works and what must be changed. Analyze that data and make changes accordingly. This is where having the decks just be Excel spreadsheets is very convenient. Once the chosen adjustments are made:

Step 6: Once Again, From the Top

Now return to Step 3 and do it all again with the adjusted deck. Don't forget to update every other deck, too. I said at the beginning it's hard work. However, I stand by the results it brought me.

Not For Everyone

While the whole thing requires a level of commitment only the most dedicated grinders can match, using proxy decks and testing scenarios is useful for almost everyone and easy to adopt. For players looking to improve and who feel their skill is plateauing, my system can make up for skill deficiencies with pure practice and knowledge.

New Discoveries in Dominaria United

Posted on September 19, 2022September 19, 2022 by Robert Genuario

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One of the most essential skills for navigating a draft is knowing when to pivot. Should we stay with our current plan or change directions based on the information we're seeing? Because of the powerful cycle of non-basics at common, the powerful domain payoffs, and the versatility of kicker spells, a third option often emerges in the Dominaria United (DMU) draft format. Should we stay, should we pivot, or should we absorb this card and try to make it work?

As is always the case, to make the optimal decision we need to know the reliable landing spots. While Wingmantle Chaplain, Big Domain decks, and UR Spells still seem to be the best archetypes, that doesn't mean they'll be the right ones for our seat. DMU has proven to be relatively balanced, and the second tier of archetypes can easily put together a 7-win run on Arena or a clean sweep of a competitive Friday Night Magic (FNM).

Green's Aggressive Side

In its early stages, Domain decks were perceived as controlling. Splashy mana-bases lead to slower games and more powerful spells. Last week, we explored how blue profited from the powerful kicker cards. However, domain powers up the aggressive strategies as well and some of its most powerful spells don't cost as much as you might assume.

Welcome to the Jungle

While every color profits from domain, the most aggressive builds benefit from being base-green. Green aggro uses a ton of combat tricks to leverage a proactive start. However, when you're using high picks on dual-lands, and other early picks on efficient threats, it may be difficult to round out a complete deck. Fortunately, this archetype utilizes some cards that other decks might not want.

Rounding Out Domain Aggro

Lovingly referred to as "Gruul with Duals", this deck wants to apply pressure on curve. Having access to the domain duals helps pay for kickers in the late game. The evasion of Bog Badger or the tempo gained from a top-decked Ghitu Amplifier can push an opponent off their back foot and into a loss. Additionally, this deck makes great use of combat tricks to punish blockers or push lethal damage.

Captain's Call is a Trap

Speaking of combat tricks, the white aggressive decks are defined by one of the best. Take Up the Shield can defend creatures from a removal spell, flip a race, or most importantly, play the trump card in combat. It's the single best way to leverage aggression in white decks at common. If we're seeing the two mana instant late in packs, we should consider leaning into a combat-centric white-based deck.

Captain's Call on the other hand, is a trap to avoid. On the surface, the card looks to fulfill the promise of the go-wide deck. Without being all-in on Heroic Charge though, it's difficult to get four mana worth of value from the tokens it makes. While it plays nicely with Griffin Protector, there are far better ways to flood the board. Additionally, Call takes you in a direction away from the color's best cards. It does have synergy with black cards like Gibbering Barricade and Bone Splinters, but it's generally not worth the commitment.

Argivian Cavalier and Phyrexian Warhorse give us much more maneuverability while still providing multiple bodies. We get similar synergy for our Argivian Phalanx and other go-wide payoffs without the risk of being blanked. Furthermore, these cards play much better with Take Up the Shield, which we want to optimize.

Outlasting the Opponent

On the other side of the spectrum, black has the grindiest cards in the format. These tools can serve as an engine for decks looking to outlast the competition, as well as a great shell for going long.

A War of Attrition

Recurring an Archangel of Wrath, Wingmantle Chaplain or Mossbeard Ancient is a critical piece of what black is doing in this format. With a number of Raise Deads in the format, it's possible for a single bomb to hit the table two or three times in a single game.

This deck had a few bombs and did a great job grinding out games thanks to powerful synergies and abundant card advantage. As games went long, it became easy to generate value. It was hard for opponents to get under us because of the abundant removal in these colors, and the speed at which we established defenses. The last thing an aggressive deck wants to see is Splatter Goblin into a Gibbering Barricade. If our deck starts with a bomb, we can maximize it in a similar shell.

Draft Chaff

There are numerous iterations within each individual strategy in this format, and many of them feel very powerful. White Aggro, Black Grind, and Domain Aggro are powerful avenues to explore, but the format offers a lot more. When we're thinking about picking a dual land, pivoting to a new strategy, or absorbing an extra color, we need to consider what is available to us now, and what will be available in the future. In this format, that means considering quite a bit. However, with each individual pick our options narrow. Look ahead for those potential landing spots. While you may discover a new one, it will probably find a foundation in some of the established principles of the format.

Back in Black

Posted on September 19, 2022September 19, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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“I see a red door and I want it painted black. No colors anymore I want them to turn black.” – The Rolling Stones

This lyric pretty much sums up my perspective on Standard (and, by extension, Alchemy) these days. Black has been a powerhouse since rotation, and the printing of cards like Liliana of the Veil and Sheoldred, the Apocalypse have really cemented black’s dominant status.

What does it mean for card prices? Are we seeing subtle shifts reflecting the popularity of black cards in Standard? Let’s investigate!

The Data

First, let’s dive into some data. First, I took a look at the most played cards in Standard according to MTGStocks.com. Here’s a snapshot of the top 20:

I’m not sure where Snow-Covered Forest came from to be in the top spot. Ignoring that, I’m seeing the far-reach of black sprinkled throughout this top 20 list. Counting lands that tap for black, I count 12 cards of the top 20 either black or multicolored and inclusive of black. New Dominaria United cards Cut Down and Liliana of the Veil are already making waves, and I suspect those rankings could climb higher in the coming weeks.

You could argue that red is also a dominant color based on the top 20 list above. But there are only half as many red cards (6) as there are black cards in this list. More than the 20% you would expect from a perfectly color-balanced metagame, but a far cry from 12.

Still skeptical? I am, too. So let’s dig a little deeper.

Here’s another set of data, this one being a snapshot of the Standard metagame according to MTGDecks:

This lists the Tier 1 and Tier 2 decks along with their respective share of the metagame. Every single tier 1 deck includes black, with Mono-Black being the deck with the highest share. There are two Tier 2 decks that don’t include black (Red Deck Wins and Boros Justice), but otherwise, you can find black in nearly every other top tier Standard deck.

The total share percentage of the tier 1 and tier 2 decks that contain black is 55.45%. This is consistent with the most played card data above, where black or B/X represented around 60% of the top 20 list.

These data sources, combined with my own experience (albeit playing Alchemy instead of Standard), has convinced me that black remains a force to be reckoned with in current formats.

Examining Specific Cards

What does a typical Mono-Black deck look like in Standard? Here’s a list by Imazawa Junmpei, which won a Qualifier at Hareruya:

Mono-Black

Artifact

3 Reckoner Bankbuster

Instant

1 Cut Down

4 Infernal Grasp

Sorcery

1 Soul Transfer

4 Invoke Despair

Enchantment

3 The Meathook Massacre

Planeswalker

2 Sorin the Mirthless

2 Liliana of the Veil

Land

1 Takenuma, Abandoned Mire

2 Roadside Reliquary

23 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Reckoner Bankbuster

1 Pithing Needle

1 Malicious Malfunction

2 Unlicensed Hearse

2 Soul Transfer

2 Cut Down

2 Parasitic Grasp

4 Duress

One of the first things I noticed when looking at the list was the new cards that show up thanks to Dominaria United: Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, Evolved Sleeper, Cut Down, and Liliana of the Veil. These cards, in combination with the powerhouses black already boasted from recent sets, have really set black up for success in Standard.

Mythics On The Move?

It’s no surprise that the most valuable cards in Dominaria United are Liliana of the Veil ($48 retail) and Sheoldred, the Apocalypse ($45 retail).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana of the Veil

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

For those who weren’t around when Liliana of the Veil was last seen in Standard, I seem to recall she was pretty powerful then too. With the right supporting cast, she can really warp a format. I’m not saying she’s that dominant (yet), but it wouldn’t surprise me if things moved that way.

Looking at these two price charts begs a question I recently asked on Twitter. I had just opened up two Dominaria United collector boosters, and one of them contained a showcase printing of Sheoldred. After seeing this card’s value, I asked if I should sell it immediately. The tweet spurred some interesting debate on the card.

Paul, Quiet Speculation's Director of Content, was pretty high on the card. So far, he’s been correct—Sheoldred has minimally maintained her value throughout the week, and I could see some potential upside. For comparison, The Meathook Massacre, another black Standard powerhouse, is trickling up towards $70 post-rotation. Granted, The Meathook Massacre may see more play than Sheoldred for now. Still, $50 for Sheoldred is definitely not far-fetched.

Rooting For the Underdog

Expensive mythic rares aren’t the only cards seeing movement thanks to black’s dominance in Standard. Check out the recent price action on Tenacious Underdog:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tenacious Underdog

This card headlined an article I wrote back in late May when Streets of New Capenna hit the scene. At the time, copies were around a buck each, and I predicted a climb to $5. At the time of this writing, Card Kingdom’s near mint price is $4.49 and there aren’t many copies in stock—this card is likely to climb over $5 now that I see how powerful it is in the new Standard. I only wish I had higher confidence in this spec, as I already cashed out of them once I saw the buylist move. I could have made a good bit more had I been patient.

Not Busting The Bank Yet

Another card I like in the new Standard is Reckoner Bankbuster, the number three most played card in Standard, according to MTGStocks. I know, I know, this isn’t a black card. I’m cheating a little bit here. However, there’s no argument that the card is powerful and is making waves in Standard. Despite this, it’s only $1.99 retail and copies can be had for a little less on TCGplayer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Reckoner Bankbuster

I am seeing some movement in the card’s price lately, and I expect that momentum to continue heading into the fall. This could be another $5 rare before you know it.

Other Cards of Note

Graveyard Trespasser has already climbed significantly off its lows reached at the beginning of 2022. That being said, people aren’t going to be opening many packs of Midnight Hunt anymore. This could see some movement higher as a result. However, since it’s already worth a few bucks, I’m less inclined to go so crazy over it. Standard rares just don’t have the upside they had once upon a time.

Invoke Despair also deserves mention. Not only is it a four-of in the Mono-Black list posted above, but it’s also a four-of in some non-Mono-Black lists. For example, I see a Grixis Standard list hit mythic on Arena recently. Despite being three colors, the deck still runs the full playset of Invoke Despair. If players are jamming the 1BBBB spell in three-color decks, then it must be extremely powerful! Hovering around $1, this card hasn’t moved a lot. This will change if three-colored decks continue to run four copies.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Invoke Despair

Lastly, I want to give honorable mention to Soul Transfer, a powerful rare played as a 1-of in a couple of these lists (with additional copies hiding in the sideboard).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul Transfer

The card hasn’t moved at all, and the market price is virtually bulk, at about $0.15. This isn’t likely to break out and become a $5 rare, but if you’re buying other cards already you could do worse than to add a couple of cheap copies of this card into your cart.

Lands: The Glue Holding it All Together

I can’t wrap up this article without acknowledging the dependence on lands in the current Standard manabase. Mono Black decks of course don’t have to worry much about this, but the two- and three-colored decks need to rely on ample dual land variants. Take a look at the manabase for the aforementioned Grixis deck, the one that runs four Invoke Despairs:

Grixis Manabase

1 Shivan Reef

1 Raffine's Tower

1 Takenuma, Abandoned Mire

1 Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance

1 Stormcarved Coast

1 Mountain

1 Island

2 Swamp

4 Shipwreck Marsh

4 Xander's Lounge

4 Haunted Ridge

4 Sulfurous Springs

Holy nonbasic lands, Batman! I’m seeing a combination of pain lands out of Dominaria United, three-colored triome variants out of Streets of New Capenna, and the Haunted Ridge variety of lands. By the way, did you know Haunted Ridge retails for $20? I had no idea these were so expensive!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Haunted Ridge

I don’t expect pain lands to get anywhere near that high since they’ve been reprinted a ton. That being said, you can definitely expect them to maintain a modest price point during their lives in Standard. The triome variants can definitely climb higher, so I’d keep an eye on those and pick them up strategically if the price is right.

Wrapping It Up

It’s very rare that I study and write articles about Standard. Ironically, it was my Alchemy play on Arena that got me reading up on Standard. Well, that and the fact that I opened two Dominaria United collector boosters and I wanted to see if I opened anything valuable. It turns out the Sheoldred, The Apocalypse card I opened was a chase mythic of the set! I’m not normally this lucky, so I think I’ll stop here and call it a win.

Just because I’m done opening Dominaria United product doesn’t mean I’m done acquiring new cards. I don’t speculate hard on Standard, but I am liking some of the trends that black cards are seeing recently. The metagame is definitely favoring that piece of the color pie, and it’s moving card prices in step.

With another 6 weeks or so until the Vegas event, I’m inclined to sit on my DMU cards for the time being. In the meantime, I may even acquire a few more speculative cards based on the strength of black across the Standard metagame. Either way, it’s definitely worth keeping a close watch on the cards showing up in the lists above—with paper Magic back in full swing again, these could all be well positioned as we head into the fall.

Dominaria United Prerelease: Players and Games at Illuminaudi

Posted on September 16, 2022September 15, 2022 by Anthony Willier

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So what's better than going to a Magic: the Gathering prerelease? Going to more that one! I actually would've been able to go to a Saturday event as well, but I did have some non-Magic items to attend to. Namely finish building my second card box storage unit as shown in this article, and my pup Gracie would've been very sad that I was gone for three days in a row, no matter the reason.

Like Gracie, Jarod wasn't able to attend either, due to work, but I headed out to the Sunday prerelease event at Illuminaudi. No worries for Jarod, though; he was able to attend two other events on Monday and Thursday.

Sunday, Funday!

Illuminaudi's prerelease on Monday
^{(I missed the group picture on Sunday, so my son, Jarod, snagged a similar picture the following day)}

I arrived and waited for the sweet, sweet goodness that is a prerelease kit. It's a funny thing, but the feeling of opening loose packs or packs for a draft doesn't really compare to grabbing that kit and hoping for greatness. I would consider it to be like that new car smell (which, of course, is so much better than old car smell). Your first cards of the set. I know, these were the second cards of the set for me, but the feeling was still great.

My Illuminaudi Prerelease deck: Bant Defilers

Note: for clarity, I've highlighted key cards in each deck.

Defiler of Faith, Defiler of Dreams, Defiler of Vigor

Yep, THREE Defilers! Defiler of Vigor was my promo, with the other two in one pack, the Defiler of Faith being foil. I knew the potential problem was stretching the mana, but figured by the time I got to five or six mana, I should be able to cast at least two of the three. I had a little bit of fixing and some decent early plays.

I figure this deck would be at least a 3.5, maybe a 4 out of 5. So with a four-round event, I thought I could at least perform as well as my Friday event, right? Yes, that's intentional foreshadowing.

Round 1: Josh, Jeskai Jaya

How long have you played Magic?
I started between Eldritch Moon and Kaladesh, so about six years.

Who or what got you into the game?
It was an ex-girlfriend's brother. He begged me to come with him to the Eldritch Moon prerelease. I knew nothing about the game and he prepped me for a day the week before the event. He paid for my event, built the deck for me, everything, so I would come with him.

Do you still keep in contact with him?
We were in contact for a few years after that, but he moved out of state, so we haven't talked for a while.

What do you enjoy about Magic?
Honestly, the variance. There's just a wild amount of cards involved. That's the main reason I generally stick to prereleases, you never know what you're going to get. I mostly play Commander with friends and attend prereleases. Though I recently entered a couple of Modern RCQs.

Branching out, that's great! What did you play and how did it go?
Esper Reanimator. I didn't win, but I was able to Top 8 in both events.

I'd say that' pretty good for your first venture into the format.

Jaya, Fiery Negotiator, Tori D'Avenant, Fury Rider

So, what is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
Having something to do with my friends every weekend is something I really appreciate.

Have you made friends through Magic?
I moved into the area around the start of 2021 and have been playing every weekend with a group of friends for the past year. One of them moved to Michigan recently, so we started using SpellTable as well to keep in touch.

Keeping in touch through Magic!
Yep, we have a great time.

Any favorite Magic cards?
When I really started to get into the game, right around Aether Revolt, I had many fond memories of Glint-Sleeve Siphoner and Winding Constrictor.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Winding Constrictor

Oh, wait, there's one of my favorite memories!

Awesome, let's hear it!
At my old game store in Mansfield, Ohio, around Guilds of Ravnica, there was a gentleman who would donate a booster box of cards to the store. He would do this once a month to be used for an event of his choosing. For this particular event, it was round robin where you played four different formats with four different decks. The first, Standard; the second, Modern; the third, Tiny Leaders; and the fourth, Commander.

That was the only time before the RCQs that I ever played Modern. I built a Winding Constrictor counters deck, since it had just rotated out of Standard. I actually won the match against someone playing a real Modern deck, with a Blossoming Defense to deal the final blow. That's my favorite Magic memory.

Match Result

The first game started off with both of us exchanging blows. Josh pulled ahead with Jaya, Fiery Negotiator and sealed the deal with a very large and nasty Electrostatic Infantry, supported by Furious Bellow and Twinferno.

In the second game, Josh mulled to five, but still put up a great fight. He played an early Jaya, Fiery Negotiator, but I fortunately had the Prayer of Binding for her. We had both ended up in single digits when he cast Stall for Time on a couple of my guys.

I just smiled, blocked a little, and took a little damage. See, I'd scryed the turn before with Crystal Grotto and knew what was on top of my deck. He only had his two creatures, which were larger than mine, but I proceeded to cast my own Stall for Time and win.

The third game was very anticlimactic. I played the two lands from my starting hand, and didn't get another until about turn seven. Yea, I wasn't coming back from that. 1-2.

Round 2: Chris, Temur Fun

When did you start playing Magic?
I started during Amonkhet with a few friends, but got out of it until Guilds of Ravnica and have been going ever since.

Who or what got you into the game?
In Boy Scouts. Everyone was playing it at the time, but it was still a little difficult to break into their playgroups, which seemed pretty established.

So, that's what introduced you to the game. What brought you back?
It actually happened when I switched scout troops. This group was easier to get involved with and was having a great time.

What do you enjoy about Magic?
I love the different interactions within the game and the fact that there are so many ways to play. The breadth of Magic is enormous.

Llanowar Greenwidow, Defiler of Instinct, Radha, Coalition Warlord

What is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
Since Boy Scouts is what introduced me to the game, I'd have to say those earliest memories are my foremost ones. My buddy [motions down the table] was in scouts as well, and it's been a great way to stay in touch. That and enjoying Commander with my close friends at their places.

So Commander is your favorite current format, then?
Oh yeah, definitely.

Who's you favorite Commander?
Karlach, Fury of Avernus. Piling on a potentially infinite number of attack steps. I really enjoy Mono-Red decks that utilize the attack step.

Any other favorite Magic cards?
Even though I enjoy Mono-Red, another card I like is Bolas's Citadel. Even when you aren't working to combo out with it, it's still a fun and interesting card. For Commander specifically, it's Lightning Greaves. Need to protect the Commander!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lightning Greaves

Match Result

My deck decided to start running on all cylinders and Chris's deck blew a tire. He worked to put up a good defense, but had a difficult time landing threats. When I was able to land both Defiler of Faith and Defiler of Dreams in the first game and Defiler of Vigor in the second, the match was over. 2-0.

Round 3: Michael, UW Fliers

When did you start playing Magic?
I'm actually entering my third phase of the game. My first phase was in the '90s, from Fourth Edition through Homelands. We weren't serious about it, and it was very typical kitchen table Magic. One thing I remember from then was the difficulty in getting basic lands. Unlike today, where they're everywhere, you had to break open starter decks just get the lands you needed.

Yep, I remember those days!

I had stopped playing while in college, until Return to Ravnica. At that point, I was quite a bit more competitive. I'd be slugging it out in local Standard events three nights a week, grinding in the Grand Prix and various Star City tournaments. I never got too far into the upper levels of play though. My best was at a couple of Star City events where I ended 7-3, with a cash prize of $50.

That's still something. Many others would've liked that!

It was a great time. My friends and I would have super draft nights, where we'd all buy a box and draft all night. I was totally immersed in the game. I believe I stopped again, around Dragons of Tarkir. I'm unsure of the reason, but it probably dealt with being upset with a set rotation. I was strictly a Standard and Limited player.

Until recently, I had always thought to play Magic the "right" way, you had to commit to it. Play multiple nights a week, tournament travel; be dedicated. So when I wasn't able to do that, I'm sure that had an effect. I was also involved in many other games, so there was probably some general overload happening as well.

Now I'm in the third, and hopefully, last phase. Today is the first official event I've played in about seven years. I restarted just a few months ago with some friends who have been playing Commander for a while. They got me into Commander and I'm enjoying the format. So, I think, between casual Commander and events like this prerelease, I can finally enjoy the game without becoming overly serious about it.

Did you happen to keep your cards throughout the phases?
Unfortunately, no. Playing Commander I've seen people playing Cyclonic Rift, and I was thinking, "Hey I remember when that card was $4.00 and I had a bunch of them."

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cyclonic Rift

So, I've told myself that if for some reason I decide to stop playing again, I'll keep the cards! Hopefully though, I'm looking forward to continue playing and enjoying the game from here on.

Who or what got you into the game?
Obviously it was different people at different times. In high school, a good buddy went to a tournament, came back with a few Revised packs, and got our group of friends playing.

I've always been a gamer, so the second time I came back I was ready to play and rip open some packs. I arrived at our local store at the stroke of midnight and bought a box of Return to Ravnica on release night. I don't recall what specifically brought me back in, but I was raring to go.

More recently, my board game buddies played Commander, so my interest was naturally piqued, along with them working on me for a while.

What do you enjoy about Magic?
Winning used to be the goal, for certain; the competition. Now, it's more just enjoying the game and working to achieve what I built my deck to do. If I don't succeed, then I rebuild, and try again. I've been really enjoying the Commander aspect. It's allowed me to focus more on the Gathering part of the game.

Danitha, Benalia's Hope, Haughty Djinn, Leyline Binding, Djinn of the Fountain

What is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
Hitting 7-3 in a few of those Star City tournaments was satisfying. I can't think of anything specific, but I've always enjoyed those come-from-behind moments. Where your opponent believes they have you, and you pull out the win. Yea, those are always great.

Favorite Magic cards?
Oooh.... I would say Falkenrath Aristocrat. I had much success with her during my Standard competitive phase. Another is Sphinx's Revelation. Definitely a favorite of mine during Return to Ravnica.

Match Result

Remember that foreshadowing? Not to dismiss Michael's deck, because it was a very competent deck, but my deck decided to stop at two lands again in the first game. In the second game, it was slightly better, but with a little removal and his fliers, I crashed and burned. 0-2.

Round 4: Lance, Five Color

When did you start playing Magic?
I don't recall specifically, but I started sometime between Champions of Kamigawa and Time Spiral blocks. I took a break after Zendikar, but got back in with Kaldheim.

Who or what got you into the game?
Boy Scouts. Had a few friends that introduced me to the game. I already played various board and video games, so the interest was already there.

What do you enjoy about Magic?
The challenge. Both in the competition and within deck building. It hits on so many levels.

What kind of formats do you enjoy playing?
In my early days, it was Standard and Draft. Since I've been back, I've been more into Commander, but am looking forward to getting into Modern.

Ajani, Sleeper Agent, Evolved Sleeper, Llanowar Loamspeaker

What is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
Definitely winning my first and second drafts. It was Shards of Alara and I won both with a terrific Naya deck. I love playing those colors and was able to crash through with big beefy boys like Woolly Thoctar. Occasionally I would get to pair him up with Welkin Guide and smash even harder.

Favorite Magic cards?
Llanowar Elves. I love the mana dorks. Being able to ramp or attack. If I had to choose a second, it would be Counterspell. Both cards are useful in many ways and are always solid cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Llanowar Elves

Match Result

Sadly, this match was eerily similar to the previous round. Game one, I was stuck on two lands for multiple turns. Game two was better, and we had more of a game. Alas, in the end, he had one more piece of removal in Extinguish the Light and a couple of small guys like Haunting Figment to clean things up. 0-2.

Event Wrap-Up

Well, that's variance poking its head up and saying hi. I'm sure there was the option to mull a couple of those hands, but sometimes it just doesn't go the way you had hoped. Still, in the games I was able to actually play, getting the right colors never seemed to be a problem. The nice thing is that with Illuminaudi, everyone gets at least one pack for playing, so I was able to drown my sorrows by cracking that pack.

As I mentioned, prereleases are always a great time. Win or lose you get to open packs, build a deck, and hang out with your local Magic community. Thanks again to my fellow players at both stores.

How was your prerelease, or by this time, release events? Did you pull some great cards or have a great (or not-so-great) story to share? Were you able to make new Magic friends? I would love to hear about your experience in the comments below or on Twitter.

New Cards, Wallet Fatigue, and Burnout

Posted on September 15, 2022September 15, 2022 by Joe Mauri

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Wizards is releasing more sets, more Secret Lairs, more everything than ever before. Warhammer40K, Lord of the Rings, and The Brothers' War are all coming. At a certain point, it's simply impossible to keep up! Or is it? What are some ways to keep expanding your Magic horizons without being overwhelmed mentally or financially?

Focus Your Efforts

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Unless you're a madman trying to build 32 new decks at once, it's much more likely you have one or two decks you are building or improving. When a new set drops, focus your efforts on upgrades or themes for only a deck or two. Just because Dominaria United introduced a Cleric lord and a ton of new Phyrexians does not mean you should be attempting to build both of those decks!

A Decided Lack of Spirit

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At home, we have a Millicent, Restless Revenant Spirit tribal deck. Unfortunately, there was not a single white or blue Spirit in DMU. The most on-theme card turned out to be Runic Shot. Conversely, Crimson Vow, Midnight Hunt, and Neon Dynasty all had a pile of Spirits for consideration. It was overwhelming to say the least, and, the respite is much needed! Not chasing multiple rares and mythics is a nice change of pace, and opening the single uncommon from a pack felt great! The lesson? Knowing exactly what your deck wants helps filter the "noise" from the payoffs.

Of Boats and Gold

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ramirez DePietro, Pillager

But what if you have a ton of decks? Focus even harder. Ramirez can go into my art-based boat deck that now has a (forced) Pirate subtheme. Furthermore, I'm able to juggle themes to such a degree that I can go back over older sets to see if existing cards complete the deck. There are some old cards from Portal Two that received errata during The Grand Creature Type Update which were Ships or Merchants but are now Pirates. Just adding one new card allowed me to add several old cards to round the deck out. Now, I have a very complete deck, and I don't need to add anything but the most exceptional of boat-based cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sheoldred, the Apocalypse

Deathtouch? Deathtouch! However, not going into the Deathtouch deck. I've tinkered with Atraxa, Praetors' Voice so much that it's now named "Midas Deathtouch," with a heavy multi-colored theme and Party sub-theme. So a Mono-Black Phyrexian Praetor deathtoucher, even a potent one like Sheoldred, just does not make the cut. Not only does this spare my wallet, it means I don't need to automatically consider a card just because it says "deathtouch." The theme and subthemes presented are deep enough that a card has to be pretty special to get included.

The Only FOMO Is FOMO Itself

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chun-Li, Countless Kicks

I cannot afford to blow $40 on one card. I asked a few people I knew who ordered Secret Lair x Street Fighter if they were interested in selling just Chun-Li, but that did not pan out. Then I took to eBay and tried every "Best Offer" vendor I could, again to no avail. However, time was on my side as I predicted in July, and her price steadily decreased. I only had to wait about a month and shaved over 50% off her price. Now that I finally have my commander, I can build that deck. Most importantly, I did not miss out! I got the card I wanted for a decent price.

Speaking of Priority...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Priority Avenger

My personal deck building backlog is pretty massive, and sometimes it's difficult to know what concept to work on next. In this case, I've been waiting the longest for Chun-Li, so she's at the front of the line. Once I have the commander, the deck gets built. Period. In this case, my personal deadline is Commander Game Night, where I try to always bring at least one new deck. An important note is to bring your deck as-is and to actually play it. I see too many players put off playing a deck because they feel they do not have all the "perfect" cards for it. Budget cards are a good compromise for this situation.

Fatigue Can Also Be Burnout

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You may find yourself burned out from seeing too many new cards, acquiring new Commander decks you have no time to play, and just playing too much. There are multiple kinds of play burnout. Mono-Black commanders have been my jam for many, many years. However, playing Arvinox the last couple of weeks and a Mono-Black version of Oona, Queen of the Fae for a store event has given me my fill of Mono-Black Commander goodness for the foreseeable future. I'm benching these decks for the time being and bringing something new to keep my interest up.

Slowing Down

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Playing on Thursdays and Fridays without fail for the last few months has been a bit too much, on top of late night games on SpellTable. So yes, I'm going to cut back, mostly on the SpellTable side of things because playing in person is more fun. Other hobbies and ventures do call from time to time, so it is important to acknowledge them. Did someone say football season? I wonder what a football-themed Commander deck would look like... oh wait, they're doing Secret Lair x Blood Bowl. But no, seriously, moderation is important! If Magic is becoming too demanding or overwhelming, put it down and come back later.

Choose Wisely

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With so many Magic products coming, I am extremely aware of just how many shiny new cards I can afford. I'm getting the Warhammer stuff and skipping the Lord of the Rings stuff. I'm not getting any more Dominaria United but will get a lot of The Brother's War. It's not only about what I am buying, but what I am not buying. I've scooped up the handful of cards I wanted from DMU, most of which were uncommons, so I get a little bit of "wallet cooldown" until the next big purchase. As far as Commander precons go, I've picked up the ones that looked good and will scoop up the rest for bulk prices later.

Moderation Is Key

There's a lot to love about Magic: The Gathering. Every year they, are churning out more cards, sets, decks, promos, and swag than ever before. If you carefully focus your attention, don't succumb to FOMO, enjoy a moderate amount of play, and make precise purchase decisions, you can stave off analysis paralysis and stretch your budget.

Have you experienced Magic-related FOMO? Burnout? Wallet fatigue? Please share your story in the comments, as well as any tips you may have for keeping the spark alive!

My Favorite Blue Penny Picks for September 2022

Posted on September 14, 2022September 14, 2022 by David Schumann

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I began this series last month with an article on green penny picks. Today, we'll continue the series with blue, everyone's favorite color to hate!

While most believe that green is the most powerful color in Commander, blue is arguably the best color in Magic. The options of card draw, counter magic, and extra turns makes any counter arguments quite difficult. I bring these specific characteristics up because they also happen to be the ones that make for good speculation targets.

As I mentioned in the last article, to qualify as a penny pick, the card must be available to buy in somewhat large quantities for under $1. So without further ado, let's take a look at the ones I'm most interested in picking up right now.

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Mill strategies are a casual favorite. Consider a card that is very similar to Cut Your Losses in Traumatize, which despite six printings is a $3 card. While Cut Your Losses does cost an additional mana, the ability to hit 75% of an opponent's library is very powerful.

It's interesting to me that despite the fact that the mill strategy is rarely viable in a competitive environment, it retains a strong enough following that any cards that either mill a lot of cards or can repeatedly mill opponents automatically make it into my "not bulk" box.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Muse Vortex

UR Spells is a powerful Commander archetype, and this card seems like a must-include there. I honestly hadn't given this card much thought until researching for this article. As I mentioned, one of blue's most powerful abilities is card draw, and while this card doesn't let you draw all the cards you hit off of it, you do get all the relevant ones. Getting to cast an additional spell for free makes it even better.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Venser, Shaper Savant

This card has been a very popular Commander card with occasional Modern play. It's ability can act like a pseudo-Time Walk similar to Remand, except it leaves behind a 2/2 body. Venser was a good $15+ card until its reprint in Modern Masters 2017, which wrecked its price for about a year. It began to creep back up again and hit almost $10 prior to the Double Masters reprinting. Now, copies sit under $1, and I imagine this could easily return to the $3-$4 range barring more reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wizards of Thay

At first glance, I didn't think a whole lot about this rare, as we have plenty of cards that reduce instant and sorcery costs by one generic mana. The myriad ability has been one that Wizards of the Coast has seemed to be hesitant to really break, as there are only 14 creatures with the ability and one equipment, and none of the creatures sees significant play in Commander.

That being said, Thay does provide the possibility of making instants and sorceries cheaper by one for each opponent if you can make sure the copies live, and thanks to the last ability, you can actually cast any instants or sorceries at the reduced cost prior to combat damage, thus allowing one to cast some big spells a lot earlier than normal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Endless Evil

While I, like most players, tend to shy away from auras given casting them tends to be dangerous, this one does provide a lot of value. It does cost three mana, which means it can be recurred via cards like Sun Titan and Serra Paragon, and thus could be very abusable in a UWx shell. The biggest issue that I see is that you get no benefit until your next upkeep, which in Commander games can take an eternity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Robe of the Archmagi

I have a soft spot for equipment since it sticks around when the equipped creature dies. Still, the equip cost on this one is pretty high unless your creatures are Shamans, Warlocks, or Wizards. The fact remains that there are a lot of creatures in blue that have at least one of those creature types, and it doesn't take much imagination to see equipping this to a creature people don't want to block and getting to draw 3+ extra cards every turn.

Another Pick in the Ocean

Thus concludes our list of blue penny picks. I have not personally invested in all of these, but have picked up most of them myself.

It is important to keep in mind that again, all of these are recent printings. With larger print runs, the price ceiling tends to be lower, especially for rares. Still, many of these have extended art variants which are still quite cheap, and of those options, many of the foil extended arts are under $1. A surge in popularity for any of these cards can drive scarcity, which could skyrocket the price of these special versions especially.

Are there any cards you think deserve to be on the list? If so, please comment below.

Magical Creatures: Myr and Slith

Posted on September 14, 2022September 13, 2022 by Francesco Spagnol

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Hello everyone, and welcome to a new installment of Magical Creatures, the series dealing with creatures unique to the Magic universe! If you missed it, the first piece of the series was an introduction to the concept of uniqueness and what I mean with that. As for the last one, it dealt with Kavu and Cephalid, two subtypes introduced respectively with the Invasion and with the Odyssey blocks.

I have anticipated it last week: the following block, namely Onslaught, contained no such creatures at all, despite being packed with creatures (especially Legions). It's still an interesting block, as it gave a crucial boost to the concept of tribal as we know it today. Thus, we'll quickly have a look at it before moving to the core of today's piece.

The Onlsaught Block

Launched in the end of 2002, Onslaught opened a new block, and the next year, Legions and Scourge would follow. It focused heavily on tribal cards, or ones for which creature types matter. The perfect scene for creating some new creatures! Well, it actually did add some, but none of them was unique to Magic. For instance, we had the first Mutant (Mistform Mutant) and Pangolin (although it was not to receive this subtype until many years later).

Typical (and not so typical) tribes

As for the rest, the Onslaught block was full of the typical creatures one would expect from a game based on the fantasy world. Goblins, Elves, Zombies, Clerics, and so on. Nothing for us to discuss, at least not in the present series... so instead, let's get to the heart of today's piece: Mirrodin!

Mirrodin's Supremacy

The Mirrodin block added no less than six new creature types unique to Magic: The Gathering. That's the highest number in the whole history of Magic. The only block coming close was Tempest, adding five unique subtypes. With a notable difference, though: Tempest's Soltari and Thalakos were not creature types back in the day, and were only canonized in the Grand Creature Type Update. On the contrary, all six of Mirrodin's new creatures were actual creature types right from the beginning.

This does not surprise us too much. After all, the plane that was once known as Mirrodin (and is now called New Phyrexia) is an artificial one, mostly made of metal. As such, it is home to many weird beings that were unseen before. Today it's different, since we came back to that plane with the Scars of Mirrodin block between 2010 and 2011, and are now familiar even with those strange creatures. Back in 2004, though, many new creature types needed to see light.

Indeed, we are counting six just because the focus of this series is on subtypes unique to Magic. If we had to count all new creature types, well, the number would be even higher! The six creatures we're talking about are Myr, Pentavite, Slith, Vedalken, Blinkmoth, and Bringer. Most of them come from the first set, Mirrodin itself, whereas the last two come from the next two expansions, Darksteel and Fifth Dawn.

Due to spatial concerns, we'll split the analysis over two pieces. In the present installment, let's discuss one big subtype (Myr) and two minor ones (Pentavite and Slith). Next week's piece will also deal with one major creature type (Vedalken) and two minor ones (Blinkmoth and Bringer).

Not Homunculus, Not Gnome... Myr!

Simplifying things, the concept of Myr is similar to that of the Homunculus, not unlike the Beeble (remember?), with the difference being that myrs are metal automatons. But then again, what isn't metallic on Mirrodin? Myrs are basically servitors, and were originally supposed to be Gnomes. The fact is that Brady Dommermuth, Creative Director at the time of Mirrodin, was not a huge fan of Gnomes, so he made up this new artifact race.

Myr mostly appeared in two limited periods of time during Magic's history: the Mirrodin block and the Scars of Mirrodin block. Some exceptions consist of Sarcomite Myr from Future Sight and a couple more from Modern Horizons (Parcel Myr and Myr Scrapling). Nothing exceptional.

Speaking of tribal, Myr was not complete until the arrival of Scars of Mirrodin, which introduced their first (and only) lord: Myr Galvanizer. That doesn't mean they are now a viable tribe for competitive play, but at least they gained something, right?

Notable Myrs in Competitive Play

As for competitive tournaments, though, the only Myr that saw regular play throughout the years was Myr Enforcer, and it definitely wasn't because of its subtype. If you played during the first Mirrodin age, you'll probably remember with terror the absolute and outrageous power of Affinity decks. And even if you didn't, you'll still know how it works, since it was also a contender in Extended and in Modern. It's no accident that today's Banned & Restricted list still includes Mirrodin's artifact lands... or that the Mirrodin Block format had 10 card banned from tournaments. No other block in Magic ever came close!

Other notable Myrs are Myr Retriever, a card that literally screams "combo," and Ichorclaw Myr, used during the Scars of Mirrodin era in Infect decks. The former managed to get a good result at Grand Prix Vienna, in 2008, piloted by Tomas Lebeda. And what's more, the reason why it performed so well was its synergy with another Myr, Myr Servitor. The latter even made it into the Top 8 of Pro Tour Nagoya 2011, this time in the hands of Gaudenis Vidugiris. Not bad, for a bunch of metallic servants!

Pentavite

We actually mentioned Pentavite a few months ago, in the piece about Atog and Tetravite, and it came to my mind because of its being a direct reference to Tetravite. Actually, the original card was Tetravus from Antiquities. As for Pentavus, it's a very similar creature, and even the name is a clear tribute. "Tetra" is Greek for the number 4, whereas "penta" indicates the number 5. And if you look at the two cards, you'll see that the former enters the battlefield with four +1/+1 counters, and the latter with five.

It's a weird creature type, that's for sure. Not a single creature was ever printed with that subtype, which means it only exists in the form of creature tokens. Or as the umpteenth creature type of Mistform Ultimus and all creatures with the changeling ability, of course...

Slith

The last creature type we're seeing today is Slith. Far from the huge number of Myr, but still more diverse than Pentavite, Slith appear on six cards. All of them come from Mirrodin, except for the last one, Arcbound Slith, introduced in the second expansion, Darksteel. Sliths are humanoid beings with faces similar to skulls, and seem to be made of metal or rock.

Their ability, although it might not seem obvious to newer players, is a tribute to Whirling Dervish, an old card from Legends. It's a weird set, as it includes six creatures instead of the usual five. The reason lies in the very nature of this block. Since artifacts are this crucial, even cycles that would normally be made of one card per color were joined by a sixth, colorless, artifact card.

What Makes a Good Card?

It goes without saying that neither Pentavus nor Slith were good enough to make the cut for competitive play. Myr, however, did. And the funny thing is that it made it for reasons totally unrelated to the creature type. Enforcer was a great 7-drop (actually more like a 2-drop, or total freebie) for Affinity. Retriever and Servitor worked very well together, and Ichorclaw was the perfect extra 2-drop for Mono Black Infect. So, the fact they were all Myr is just a coincidence?

Well, I hate to say it, but the answer is yes. Myr is a fantastic creature type from the point of view of visual design, if you ask me, and one of my all-time favourites. Nevertheless, the main reason why this subtype was seen on so many good cards is not the "Myr" part, but rather the "artifact" part. It's only natural that a colorless card, playable by any deck no matter its color restrictions, has an advantage right from the start against other colored cards.

Anyway, when such creature types are born, capable of being appreciated both by kitchen-table players and professionals, it's undoubtedly a great moment for Magic. What do you think? Can you name any other creatures with that kind of pedigree? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter, and stay tuned for the follow-up article, when we'll discuss Vedalken, Blinkmoth, and Bringer!

Deck Spotlight: RB Scam

Posted on September 13, 2022September 12, 2022 by Adam Cohen

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It's time we talk about RB Scam, one of the archetypes made possible by Modern Horizons 2's cycle of evoke elementals. The evocative name comes from the deck's ability to "scam" quick wins by dismantling the opponent's hand or board for only a single mana and leaving behind a powerful creature as early as turn one.

The core concept of the deck is nothing new as players were theory-crafting the interaction even during MH2's spoiler season. A similar play line is even prevalent in Modern by casting Ephemerate on Solitude.

Despite no new or groundbreaking additions to the archetype in recent sets, the deck has rapidly grown in popularity. While I can't track down the exact proliferation point, pro player Andrea Mengucci reported a 13-0 win streak on stream about two weeks ago, which certainly helped put eyes on the deck.

Fast forward to this past weekend, RB Scam put three copies in the top eight of Saturday's Modern Challenge, including a mirror match in the finals. It's clear that scamming players is a powerful strategy and a contender in the current metagame.

How Does it Work?

Step one is to cast Grief or Fury for their evoke cost and resolve the first enters-the-battlefield ability. For step two, cast one of the seven "undying" effects in the deck such as Undying Evil before the sacrifice trigger resolves. This allows the elemental to die, then return to the battlefield, triggering their ability again. In doing so, Fury distributes a total of eight damage or Grief takes the opponent's two best cards, putting them on the back foot.

This interaction is supplemented by other midrange staples like Seasoned Pyromancer, Blood Moon, and even Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger whose own sacrifice trigger works well with the "undying" effects.

What I Like

RB Scam offers substantial, low-cost interaction like Lightning Bolt and Thoughtseize backed up by cheap threats like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer and Dauthi Voidwalker. Thanks to all of the various undying spells, non-exile-based removal isn't reliable from the opponent either.

I'm also a big fan of Voidwalker's interaction with the undying spells, allowing you to use the stolen cards from the opponent while keeping Voidwalker in play. In the event of cards getting clogged in your hand, Seasoned Pyromancer can help turn them into more impactful spells while leaving behind some 1/1 tokens for your trouble.

Of course, the main feature of the deck, the evoke elementals, are the top highlight. Grief punishes opponents for holding cards in hand while Fury punishes them for playing to the board. It's a lose-lose situation for the opponent, which is exactly where I want to be.

What I Don't Like

There are a lot of non-functional hands in this deck. As a result, it mulligans often. Hands with too many undying spells without creatures or too many expensive spells are issues. I'm also apprehensive about an 18-land deck (21 including Agadeem's Awakening and Malakir Rebirth) playing so many three drops. Missing land drops is common and so is the need to tap out for a threat, thus rendering the undying spells useless at saving deployed creatures.

While we're on the subject of the three drops, I have differing opinions on what those slots should be. The singleton Liliana of the Veil is hard to cast for this Blood Moon deck. I'd like to see it and potentially some number of Seasoned Pyromancer as Fable of the Mirror-Breaker instead. Fable does a better job of churning through the air in the deck while also helping to fuel Kroxa's escape cost.

When flipped, Reflection of Kiki-Jiki can soft-lock the opponent by copying Grief in their draw step, or repeatedly killing creatures with Fury. A cute interaction here is an undying effect on the Reflection would return it to play on the front side, gaining tons of added value.

I'm also interested in possibly playing Persist over a copy or two of the undying effects. This offers some late-game functionality at a point where the undying cards start to lose their usefulness.

This may be a bit nit-picky, but I have concerns with Scam being soft to Sanctifier en-Vec. Not only does it shut down any graveyard shenanigans from the deck, but it blocks exceptionally well. Since the deck tends to put a lot of eggs in a single creature's basket, such as an early Fury to win, Sanctifier shuts us down cold. The only answer to it is Engineered Explosives in the sideboard. Fortunately, Sanctifier is on a downward trend right now, but with RB Scam's increased popularity, it's sure to make a resurgence.

The Deck

RB Scam by REAL_ED

Planeswalkers

1 Liliana of the Veil

Creatures

4 Dauthi Voidwalker

4 Fury

4 Grief

2 Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger

4 Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer

3 Seasoned Pyromancer

Spells

1 Agadeem's Awakening

1 Night's Whisper

3 Thoughtseize

2 Feign Death

1 Kolaghan's Command

2 Lightning Bolt

2 Malakir Rebirth

3 Terminate

1 Undying Evil

2 Undying Malice

Enchantments

2 Blood Moon

Lands

4 Blackcleave Cliffs

2 Blood Crypt

4 Bloodstained Mire

1 Mountain

1 Polluted Delta

1 Prismatic Vista

1 Shizo, Death's Storehouse

3 Swamp

1 Verdant Catacombs

Sideboard

1 Abrade

2 Collective Brutality

2 Engineered Explosives

2 Fatal Push

1 Hidetsugu Consumes All

1 Magus of the Moon

2 Necromentia

2 Tourach, Dread Cantor

2 Unlicensed Hearse

End Step

And that's a wrap! Overall, RB Scam seems like an excellent contender in a graveyard hate-light environment. Even in the face of Leyline of the Void or Unlicensed Hearse, the deck still presents a strong fair game plan. If you're looking for something novel for FNM or even your next RCQ, this is a very viable option.

As always, if you want to keep up with me, you can follow me on Twitter at @AdamECohen. Catch you all next week!

Fundamentals: When to Playtest vs Goldfish

Posted on September 13, 2022September 13, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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Congratulations! A bolt from the blue has struck and left in its wake a great idea for a new deck. It's time now to get turn that idea into reality! Of course, as any player knows, that's only the start. Once built, a deck needs to be tested. This begs the question, how do we actually test a new deck? Most players would answer with "Playtest it, of course."

Which is fair. That's a necessary and invaluable part of deck building at any level. However, what most players actually mean by playtesting is to grab someone to jam games with. Which, again, is great. Magic is a card game after all. However, just playing games isn't really playtesting. In fact, jumping right to games is almost certainly the wrong move. Players at all levels and in all formats tend to skip an important step before playing games.

Don't Neglect to Goldfish

This may be shocking to some players, but goldfishing is an essential part of deckbuilding and testing. Yes, it doesn't replicate games and so doesn't replicate the actual play experience, but it's not supposed to. Goldfishing does serve an important purpose though. If playtesting is learning how a deck performs in a match, then goldfishing is learning if a deck works at all and how to actually play it. Skipping goldfishing is the equivalent of taking an idea right off the drawing board to a full product release. It might work, but it's more likely to be an avoidable disaster.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Test of Endurance

To make sure that everyone is on the same page here, goldfishing is where a player plays a game without an actual opponent. The name (probably) comes from asking if a deck can beat a goldfish, an opponent who does actual nothing. Being able to beat said goldfish is the basic test of competency for any Magic deck, regardless of competitiveness or format.

Ideas Must Be Tested

It is possible that some players can build a deck correctly on the first try. I've neither met one nor heard of one. I'm not one either. I, therefore, feel confident in saying that every newly built deck is an unproven deck. Theorycrafting a deck and building to the theory is great, but when theory and reality conflict, reality always wins. Goldfishing is how to find out if the ideas that went into the deck actually work. Goldfishing reveals answers to these questions:

Does the mana work? Is this deck capable of playing Magic, and what do I need to do to make it happen?
Does the deck do The Thing? Whatever The Thing might be if a deck can't do what it's supposed to do against no opponent, how will it do so against actual resistance?
How quickly does the deck do The Thing? Is it as fast as it's supposed to be?
Do I know how to do The Thing? Do I know what I'm doing?
Is The Thing worthwhile to do? Is this idea dead on arrival because it just isn't very good?

Make no mistake, goldfishing will not provide definitive answers to these questions. That's playtesting's job. Actual games with actual interaction will impact a deck's ability to function. However, goldfishing will reveal the larger flaws in a deck which will make the later playtesting more productive.

#1: Does the Mana Work?

There are all sorts of guides out there for how to build mana bases in all formats. Many players have their own heuristics and guides based on their experiences and preferences. However, none of that matters for a given deck. It may be trying to cast spells that make atypical demands. Or there may be heavy color requirements that force concessions. A deck whose mana cannot cast its spells cannot function.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

As an example, I am spending most of my playtest time working on Modern Merfolk. After I built my first test deck, I started running into a problem casting my spells. Specifically, I had a lot of double blue spells, and Mutavault coupled with Cavern of Souls made it hard to cast them. Cavern was fine for the merfolk themselves, but it was very awkward with sideboard cards. Mutavault was worse and made me mulligan more than I thought necessary. I replaced the 'Vaults with Islands and the problem disappeared. Doing so was heresy once, and maybe playtesting will say it's wrong, but the goldfish test indicates that it's not.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mutavault

This is also the chance to learn not just if the mana works but how it works. Is there a specific order that lands must be fetched and will I lose if I can't or don't? How important land sequencing is and how many lands the deck needs in play to function are just as important as what lands are in the deck. It's better to figure out how to play the lands when there's no pressure than trying to figure out during a game.

#2: Does the Deck do The Thing?

A deck is built to do The Thing. It doesn't matter what The Thing is, but it does matter whether or not the deck can do what it's been built to do. This can be archetype specific. For example, with combo decks, does that combo come together on purpose? Can an aggro deck present a decent clock? Do the synergies I think work actually work in the deck? If the answer to these questions when playing against no resistance is anything other than a definitive yes, the deck needs more work.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Song of Creation

Control decks can struggle with this one, but I have a solution. How often and how does it need to interact against a given deck? Imagine that scenario and see what happens. Play the control deck against an imaginary opponent. To avoid cheating, before the game begins write an opposing sequence that will win the game and try to stop it. If a control deck struggles to actually present the interaction necessary to survive a theoretical deck, it can't possibly do so against a real one consistently.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Counterspell

Also, this is a chance to find out if the deck does any other Thing. There may be unintended synergies in the deck or alternative ways to win. Goldfish the deck to see what it can do, not what it will do in a game.

#3: How Quickly Does the Deck do The Thing?

Does my combo deck win quickly enough to not die to aggro? Will this aggro deck kill quickly? Kill speed is the quintessential reason to goldfish a deck. It's why players started goldfishing decks in the first place. If an active deck can't win in the timeframe their chosen format demands, they're not going to be viable. For competitive formats, this would be a kill on turns 3-5.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Goblin Guide

Again, for control decks, this question is hard to answer. Control's whole deal is slowing down the game and ending the game after it's already won. Just as with #2, contriving imaginary scenarios is useful here. Against a purely hypothetical opponent, can the control deck actually establish control, turn the corner, and proceed toward winning the game.

#4: Do I Know How to Do The Thing?

Can I play my deck? Not just make normal Magic actions, but carry out my deck's plan. Can I execute the combo or string together 20 damage? I built a deck filled with internal synergies, but can I get them together and maximize their effect? This is a very basic question, but for a surprising number of players, the answer is no.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Flash

For example, Steve Sadin won Grand Prix Columbus in 2007, but didn't actually know how his deck worked until most of the way through Day One. He was playing the Flash/Protean Hulk combo, and expected that when he Flashed in Hulk, his opponents would concede. Which happened the first four rounds. Then, in Round 5 his opponent made him actually play out the combo, which he'd never done before. Steve didn't know what to do, messed up, and lost the match.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Protean Hulk

Had Steve actually tried out the deck before the GP, he would know how the combo worked and how to execute it. In order to learn how to play a deck, we have to actually play it. Goldfishing doesn't reveal how to play every scenario, but at least we'll know how it works. I resent having to spell this out, but I've seen players, even in the past week, lose matches because they didn't understand how to win with their deck beside the opponent conceding. Don't let that be you.

#5: Is The Thing Worthwhile to Do?

This applies more to competitive than casual or Commander decks, but is this new deck a worse version of an existing one? Worse is relative, but if the new aggro deck we've made is similar to but slower than Burn with no compensating value like disruption, why bother? Just play Burn. Playing a worse version of an existing deck is not going to win a tournament.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lightning Strike

Even for non-competitive play, just because something seems fun, in theory, doesn't mean it actually will be fun in practice. If the deck does the thing it's supposed to, but we'd rather it hadn't, that's a strong sign something's wrong. Better to find out before subjecting ourselves and others to something nobody will enjoy.

A Bonus

As a bonus, goldfishing a deck will make us faster at playing the deck. I noted in my full article on the subject, that practice is the primary way to speed up. Learning how the deck works in a vacuum makes it easier and therefore faster to make those sequencing decisions that aren't dependent on the matchup. Land sequencing in particular should be rote for most decks, so just get the practice in.

Additionally, goldfishing combo decks will make it easier to execute the combo. A new player needs to think through the whole combo. An experienced player knows what needs to happen without having to think about it, which means they shave time off the combo.

Now to Playtest

Having goldfished the deck enough to have worked out the really rough edges and figured out how to play the deck reasonably competently, it's time to actually playtest. After all, it's the actually fun part. Playing games of Magic is the only way to learn and get better at playing Magic. Without playtesting, there's no way to know how a deck will perform in actual games. It's also the only way to learn matchups.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eye of Ugin

However, be careful. There are many stories of players and entire pro-level teams' playtesting so heavily that their testing became recursive. They convinced themselves that the matchup worked one way based on their testing, but their opponents had gone a completely different direction.

The key in playtesting is to play enough to understand how a matchup works and how to win. Play matches with the starting decks, make some tweaks as needed, but primarily learn what matters in the game. That's far more important than specific details about interactions or how to beat the specific build. Every player will have a slightly different configuration. Preparing too much against a certain version will leave a deck hopelessly inbred and weak.

Seek Answers

The other thing to do during playtesting is to test out various scenarios. If something isn't coming up in normal games, but it could be important, then set it up and find out. For example, one of the hardest things to determine is whether sideboard cards actually work. They're played in small numbers for specific scenarios, so there's just less opportunity to find out if they do what they're supposed to do. Therefore, set up both decks in the best-case scenario for that card and see if it does what's intended. If not, abandon it. If it does work, then start working back to a more typical scenario and see if it's still effective.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Attunement

I know that there will be objections to this on the basis that it isn't a real-world test. So what? Science is all about contriving scenarios that are rare in order to see what happens. Don't get caught up splitting hairs about it being artificial. If there are questions about something in a matchup, answer them. It's better to have the answers than continuously worrying about them.

One Is Good, Two Is Better

Goldfishing and playtesting are both necessary to making good Magic decks, regardless of format. To do one is helpful but doing both is critical. Think of it as the equivalent of lab testing and field testing. Both reveal weaknesses and flaws, but different ones. Doing one without the other is leaving a huge blind spot.

A Flashback to Childhood: Part 2

Posted on September 12, 2022September 11, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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After cracking open Mirage and Fifth Edition starter decks last week, I was eager to try out the decks I built. As a refresher, I crafted a 60-card Jund deck attempting to exploit my bombs Lord of the Pit and Catacomb Dragon. With the remaining cards, I crafted a 40-card control-ish, double-Ray of Command deck just so I could play with the cards in the other two colors in my pool.

Both deck lists can be found in last week’s article.

As luck would have it, I had a faraway friend who was willing to build a deck or two in a similar fashion, using Mirage and Ice Age cards from an arbitrarily limited card pool. My friend built a 40-card deck with the ability to expand to 60 cards. Here’s their 40-card deck:

Four-Color Deck

1 Granger Guildmage

1 Searing Spear Askari

2 Burning Shield Askari

1 Zhalfirin Knight

1 Femeref Scout

1 Windreaper Falcon

1 Wild Elephant

1 Ekundu Cyclops

1 Hazerider Drake

1 Ekundu Griffin

1 Raging Spirit

1 Zebra Unicorn

1 Iron Tusk Elephant

1 Fire Diamond

1 Jeweled Amulet

1 Rampant Growth

1 Sapphire Charm

1 Reality Ripple

1 Incinerate

1 Thirst

1 Tidal Wave

1 Kaervek's Torch

1 Energy Bolt

1 Adarkar Wastes

3 Snow-covered Island

3 Forest

3 Plains

6 Mountain

And here is the 60-card expansion package (top) along with a sideboard (bottom):

Expansion Package and Sideboard

Twenty-card Expansion

1 Orcish Conscripts

1 Mtenda Lion

1 Teferi's Imp

1 Illusionary Forces

1 Stone Spirit

1 Essence Flux

1 Snow Devil

1 Regeneration

1 Disenchant

1 Stone Rain

1 Hymn of Rebirth

2 Forest

2 Plains

1 Mountain

4 Island

Sideboard

1 Hydroblast

1 Pyroblast

1 Village Elder

1 Word of Undoing

1 Ritual of Steel

1 Mtenda Herder

1 Decomposition

1 Patagia Golem

1 Essence Filter

2 Island

1 Plains

2 Forest

How the Games Went

I won’t lie: I was somewhat disappointed in the gameplay experience. After reminiscing about the “old days” of Magic and re-reading many classic cards I played as a kid, I was expecting the gameplay to also capture the full experience from childhood. While the cards were certainly fun, the games were hit-or-miss.

First, I had major difficulty getting a competitive game off the ground. My friend started out with the 40-card version of their deck, a four-color pile with Adarkar Wastes, Rampant Growth, and a Fire Diamond to help with fixing. Despite this stretch of the mana base, their deck managed to get to its feet and develop a board fairly quickly.

My 60-card deck, on the other hand, struggled to find all three colors consistently. We had two non-games right off the bat simply because I would open with a hand of three forests and all red and green cards. Then I’d mulligan into a hand of swamps and mountains with all green cards. It was that kind of day.

Another challenge was the fact that their Granger Guildmage had numerous one-toughness targets to destroy, which really kept my board clear while my opponent could stomp over me with flanking creatures. For those who may not be familiar with the archaic ability, all creatures without flanking that are assigned to block a creature with flanking receive -1/-1 until end of turn. This means one-toughness creatures can’t effectively block creatures with flanking, as they immediately die before damage.

Out of desperation, I switched to the white/blue 40-card deck to see how that felt. The short answer: it was much better! Here’s a shot of my side of the battlefield during the game:

This is what my opponent’s board looked like:

My opponent had attacked me with their Raging Spirit and Zhalfirin Knight, two creatures I had a tough time blocking. Their face-down card was a phased out Hazerider Drake thanks to the Teferi's Curse enchanting it. After my opponent declared their attackers, I cast Ray of Command to take the Raging Spirit with the intent of blocking and trading it off with the flanking Zhalfirin Knight.

In response, my opponent cast Reality Ripple targeting their own Raging Spirit in an attempt to phase out the creature and stop the two-for-one from happening. I had a Dissipate in hand and cast that in response to the Reality Ripple. Out of desperation, my opponent let the Dissipate and Ray of Command resolve and then cast Sapphire Charm to phase out the creature once I took control of it.

That play worked, and the blow-out was averted, but it was probably the most complicated series of plays across all the games. It was also the only game that really felt like a game! I learned that it is possible to recapture the nostalgia of gameplay from 1997—one just needs to be patient as only a fraction of games succeed in this regard.

We played one last game, my opponent, with the 60-card version of their deck, and me with my 60-card Jund deck. My opening hand this time had one forest, one swamp, and one mountain. We were off to the races!

Things started out strong for me. I cast various creatures and started beating down. Things took a turn, however, when my opponent started landing flying creatures. I wasn’t too intimidated by the Windreaper Falcon. The Ekundu Griffin was a little scarier and sped up my clock significantly, but I was still hoping to race. However, when they stuck their copy of Illusionary Forces, I knew my time was up. Yes, they could only attack with it once, but my life total was already precariously low at this point.

Oh, and the one card that was left in my hand at this point was… Lord of the Pit. It was stuck there because I only had one swamp in play. It was such a bummer.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lord of the Pit

Key Takeaways

I have always looked back fondly on my early days of Magic. I was quick to negatively judge new sets, thinking, “They just don’t make cards like they used to.” While that’s still true, I must say I learned a thing or two about how improved Magic is nowadays.

Beyond this high-level takeaway, there were some specific things I learned through this experience.

First, I remember thinking mana fixing was a waste of a card slot back in the day and that really held back our decks. The reason we didn’t notice this was an issue was because all of us within our play group made the same poor mana base decisions. Many games would occur where we would do nothing to the board for multiple turns while trying to draw the right land or colored spell. During these turns, it was like there would be an unofficial cease-fire. We also played less aggressively in general back then, failing to optimize attacks out of an unjustified fear of retaliation. This inevitably bought time for all players in the game while they could draw the right lands and fill out their board.

Now that I’ve been playing Magic for 25 years, I know a little more about combat strategies and how best to make my attacks. My opponent was similar in experience and skill, so there really wasn’t any mercy between the two of us. This more competitive gameplay led to non-games.

Secondly, I am in awe at how tiny the creatures were! After opening my two starter decks, I basically had to include every creature in my builds just to make sure I had enough. It reminds me why cards like Craw Wurm and Scaled Wurm were such powerhouses back in the day. Without a removal spell, these gigantic creatures would completely warp a game. Forget about cards like Shivan Dragon and Nightmare, which we couldn’t even afford to purchase. With such small creatures at common and uncommon, its no wonder board states would stall so often when playing as a kid.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nightmare

Thirdly, I can’t believe how lopsided flying creatures could be back in the late 1990s. Any evasion, for that matter, would be problematic in a game back then. When a board state clogs up and nothing can get through on the ground, having a flying attacker (or a creature with a relevant landwalking ability, or a creature with Fear) would be very difficult to stop. I got fresh experience of that first hand.

Finally, on a positive note, I was able to experience a small sliver of the thrill I had as a kid when shuffling up a new deck for the first time. Even though I never drew my Catacomb Dragon and I never cast Lord of the Pit, I was still so excited to show off these bombs to my friend during a game. I had a fantasy inside my head of being nearly dead to a 2/2 flyer when BOOM, I slam down Lord of the Pit and win after attacking twice.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Catacomb Dragon

The real thrill is knowing that you have a sweet, powerful card in your hand that your opponent knows nothing about. Back in 1997, it could be the case that your opponent wouldn’t even know the given card existed, let alone that it was in your deck. The excitement of building something yourself and then “seeing it in action” peaked during this era of Magic. Once netdecking came along and kitchen table Magic evolved to Commander, that thrill evaporated for me. I am thankful to my friend for the opportunity to re-live the feeling once more.

Wrapping It Up

As I reflect on this experience, I ask myself the question, “Would I be willing to do something like this again?” The answer is a muddled “it depends.”

The Fifth Edition starter deck was $199.99 in store credit on Card Kingdom, while the Mirage starter was $299.99. If it had not been gifted to me, I most certainly would not purchase them myself to have this experience again. While it’s hard to put a price on chasing memories, I don’t think this exercise is quite worth the steep entry price.

Instead, I would be more inclined to purchase an already-opened sealed starter. You know, the one where Lion's Eye Diamond is already confirmed to not be in the deck? This would be far less expensive and really wouldn’t sacrifice too much of the experience.

Better, yet, I have another idea that I’ll pitch to my friend. What if we take our 120 or so cards and set them aside as a separate collection of sorts. Then we can buy (sealed or unsealed) booster packs of sets from that same time period to “grow our collection” and improve our decks, just like we would have done back in the 1990s. This would be akin to starting over again and attempting to recapture the same experience we once felt back in the day. Maybe we can even cap our spending at $5 a week, akin to the average income I had as a 13-year-old. Something like this eBay listing could be tempting.

I’ll continue to investigate options. One thing is for sure: it was exciting to recapture the fun childhood experience that Magic once brought, but I learned that achieving the feeling as an adult is no easy (or cheap) feat!

Dominaria Switches Gears: The Evolution of the Format

Posted on September 12, 2022September 12, 2022 by Robert Genuario

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Kicker and domain define the deck-building in DMU. The cycle of common nonbasic lands and the modality of kicker cards encourage splashing. In fact, players are splashing a third color in their decks at an unprecedented rate (or at least since the inception of 17lands data).

I Blame Blue

Many of the kicker spells, especially the blue-based ones, are fine unkicked. They are safe to include in our decks with only a few sources of their secondary color. Increased access to those colors is all upside. This incentive leads us to speculate on early dual-lands to facilitate a free splash. Because those lands have basic land types, they also improve the performance of the domain spells.

Low Effort Domain Payoffs

These cards are designed for Domain decks. However, if we splash non-basics for kicker spells, then these cards will over-perform in our decks. This overlapping synergy is the bedrock of the Domain decks. There are different degrees of splashing, but seeing these cards tempts us to err on the side of greed.

The Best Offense Is A Good Defender

One of the best incentives to splash is having access to bombs.

Wingmantle Chaplain is the early nominee for this set's mythic uncommon and one of the biggest bombs in the format. Similar to domain, defender synergies seep into many decks due to the cross-pollination of Floriferous Vinewall.

While Floriferous Vinewall can help set up our gameplan, Gibbering Barricade is a solid blocker, capable of a Skullport Merchant impression in the late game. These two cards are good for any slow deck, and because of this demand, we might need to move them up our pick order in the coming weeks.

Once we have the Chaplain, then Shield-Wall Sentinel becomes a priority. The Sentinel can serve as a tutor for our most powerful win condition, however, the Sentinel can also chain into more Sentinels if we have time. This sets up an even more powerful pay-off.

Additionally, pairing the Chaplain with Tolarian Geyser, Urborg Repossession, or Bortuk Bonerattle, to generate an insurmountable flock of birds. This has been the strongest endgame in the format thus far.

These multi-colored decks are amongst the strongest in the format and were the dominating force in the first days of DMU. However, all good formats evolve over time. The second stage of DMU is marked by the emergence of an underrated cycle, and one deck that seems to stand above the others.

Welcome to Stage Two

Whenever a format decides it's safe to play greedy mana and powerful spells, that's usually a sign it's about to change. A slow format is a declaration of war against aggressive decks. In DMU, they have the tools to fight back.

While the Domain decks are still strong, they can be slow, and sometimes their synergies can be underwhelming. When a deck that's already falling behind has to face an undercosted monster, it can be very punishing.

A Gurmag Angler for Every Color

These cards are all signpost commons. They tell us exactly what each color wants to do in the format. White wants to go wide, so we get a very cheap 4/4 for doing just that. Yavimaya Sojourner is a huge creature to face down on turn three or four if we're in domain. Writhing Necromass can be a strong top-end threat, powered by early trades. Molten Monstrosity... less so.

However, no matter where we get our Magic content, the discourse this week seems focused on the final member of this cycle:

Tolarian Terror is a prime reason to play cantrips, and many of them are outright strong in this format. Timely Interference has a low opportunity cost but leads to some huge blowouts while, Impulse and Joint Exploration punish opponents playing around Essence Scatter. Furthermore, for one blue mana, we can hold up a Shore Up protecting our creature after opponents pay the ward tax. If we build our deck right, this card will cost one or two mana in the late game, but slamming it on four is still a stabilizing force.

UR Spells is the Aggro Deck of the Format

The Terror is a draw to any spell-based Blue deck, but the UR deck optimizes it best. Most decks lack aggressive two-drops, but Haunting Figment and Ghitu Amplifier are dangerous both early and late. Backed by a handful of spells, these cards can pressure opponents even after they feel stable. While UB can also cast an early Tolarian Terror, the control deck doesn't pressure life totals nearly as well. As a result, opponents have time to set up profitable blocks. Against UR, it more closely resembles The Abyss.

The UR deck has become a pillar of the format. Balmor, Battlemage Captain, the suite of blue and red spells, the two-drops, and Tolarian Terror synergize well. Cards like Tolarian Geyser provide tempo and Timely Interference capitalizes on it. Once this deck pulls ahead, it's hard to stop and it can squeeze through the final points of damage with Haunting Figment, burn spells, or the trample from Balmor.

Domain decks still shine, but in the early days of the format, it felt like the best thing to do was collect all the kicker spells and let the rest sort itself out. The UR deck pressures that game plan. Domain decks need to be able to answer this streamlined strategy which is not easy. It has interaction, card advantage, and aggressive creatures.

Draft Chaff

Early data shows that this format is far from solved. It is balanced and complex. The most staggering data point is the success of Wingmantle Chaplain. Personal experience and observations crown Domain and UR spells as the best decks in the format. However, the data points to the white decks slightly outperforming these strategies.

The best quality about this format, though, is that every deck appears to be viable. Next week, we'll look at the white decks and explore the other end of the color pie. What decks have performed best for you? Let us know in the comments.

Dominaria United Prerelease: Players and Games at Mavericks

Posted on September 9, 2022September 9, 2022 by Anthony Willier

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Prerelease! One of the best Magic events there is! New set, new mechanics, new characters. An event that is generally laidback, low rules enforcement, and focused on F-U-N. Everyone, inherently, starts at the same level, where anyone can have a great deck or pull awesome cards, as did my friend Doug.

Yep, that's TWO! Phyrexian text mythics. Lucky Doug!

Along with a new Magic experience and valuable cards is the opportunity to get out and play; to see familiar faces and make new friends. I don't have the numbers, but I truly believe prereleases bring out more people overall than the majority of other Magic events.

I've attended every prerelease since Planeshift except the few that weren't available during the pandemic and Apocalypse. I missed that one since my youngest, Jarod, was just about to come into the world.

Back then you only had the large, single-location prereleases to go to. If I remember correctly, it wasn't until Shards of Alara that Wizards started providing prereleases locally. Going to larger events were still a lot of fun, but many times you had to set it up as a whole day or weekend event. Ours was about 2 hours away, and my wife wasn't comfortable with my being that far away. Priorities are important.

Fast-forward to the Dominaria United prerelease, and Jarod and I are ready to go! We both were able to attend the Friday prerelease at Mavericks. Fun times and many packs opened by us both.

While slinging the proverbial cardboard at both locations, I decided to get to know my opponents a little better as well through a few quick-hit Q&A sessions. Making new friends and solidifying existing relationships is healthy, but it's always good to learn more about others. That way you'll have more people to play Magic with!

It's a Good Friday... for a Prerelease!

Once we arrived, Jarod and I had the initial pre-prerelease discussions about cards we'd like to open, what colors are good to get into, and so on. Kits were passed out and we dug in.

My Mavericks Prerelease Deck

Note: for clarity, I've highlighted any pertinent cards in each deck.

Serra Paragon, Temporal Firestorm, Defiler of Flesh

I knew that I was set in WB, but with a little bit of fixing I took the chance and threw in the two Lightning Strikes and Temporal Firestorm, which helped out a lot. I felt comfortable with the deck and knew it could win, but didn't think it was a outright bomb. I would give it a 3.5 out of 5.

Round 1: Eddie, Esper

How long have you played Magic?
For a few years. My first Magic purchase was a Throne of Eldraine planeswalker deck.

Who or what got you into the game?
A friend at school. He said, "Hey, I'm going to teach you how to play." I replied, "Alright." Afterwards, I was like, "This is really cool and I'm in!" It all started from that one conversation.

What do you enjoy about Magic?
Being able to play and hang around with my friends. To meet new people at the game stores and join in some Commander games.

Commander is great, of course. Are there other formats you enjoy?
Pauper. I play it online and have a lot of fun with it.

What is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
Again, hanging out with my friends during lunch and playing a few games. I've also taught a few other friends, helping them learn how to play. That's really what it's about. Having fun with friends.

Have you made friends through Magic?
For certain! I met Parker [points across the store] through a mutual friend, and now we're good Magic buds.

Favorite Magic cards?
Lightning Bolt and Birds of Paradise are two of them.

I see! You like "Bolting the Bird!"
Oh yea, absolutely! They're a couple of old cards that are simple, still relevant in many decks, and very fun.

Match Result

Eddie had a few issues with his cards lining up, and I quickly took the match 2-0.

Round 2: Hunter, Bant tokens

How long have you played Magic?
My involvement started with my dad when I was five. He had been playing since '95 and involved me early on, so I've always been familiar with the game. I got into it on my own during college around the time of Adventures in the Forgotten Realms. Being a poor college student, I didn't have a lot of extra money to build a Standard deck, so I started playing limited.

I wasn't sure how I would perform, but I did have experience with card games through Hearthstone. I was the number one player on the ladder in North America at one point. It's something like hitting the top tiers of Mythic on Magic: Arena.

So your dad alone got you into the game?
Well, it was him and his cousin. They'd play Magic, so whenever the family would get together for a holiday or something, they would play all night. Once my brother, cousins, and I got to a point where we old enough to read the cards, we joined in. I still have the Mono-Blue nonsense deck from when I played back then. Here I am, playing a bunch of horrible chaff cards, while they're playing Elf-Ball or something degenerate.

I'm unfamiliar with Hearthstone, how does it line up with Magic?
One major difference is each player only plays on their turn. There aren't instants or responding to the other player, so you lose that interaction with your opponent.

I see. For an old school Magic player like myself, that is definitely different.
It is. I attended a local limited tournament and came in second out of 42, so I thought to myself, "Ok, great! I can actually play this game!"

Coming from another game, what do you enjoy most about Magic?
Starting as a young Mono-Blue player, it was being able to mess around with the board by bouncing my cousin's stuff or counter an ability he wanted to resolve, like Squelch-ing his Wellwisher. Then they would play something else and I'd send it back.
More recently, it would be interacting with my opponent. Hearthstone doesn't provide that as much, so I've enjoyed Magic a lot more because of it.

Danitha, Benalia's Hope, Vesuvan Duplimancy, Ivy, Gleeful Spellthief

What is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
My first Adventures in the Forgotten Realms sealed event. As I said, I grew up with a Mono-Blue deck, and was always jealous of my brother's Boros soldier deck. Well, in my first sealed pool, I pulled two Adult Gold Dragons, did well with them, and loved it. I enjoyed it enough so I came back the next day and received a sealed pool with two Skeletal Swarming. Both events were just so much fun.

Favorite Magic cards?
Harkening back to AFR, it's Bruenor Battlehammer. I would, of course, pair him up with a bunch of equipment, joining the fight with other Dwarves and Dragons, and swing away!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bruenor Battlehammer

Match Result

Hunter had a very interesting deck and in the first game he started with a quick Soaring Drake beatdown. I stabilized, and Elas Il-Kor, Sadistic Pilgrim's ability was able to slowly grind him down to Lightning Strike-range.

The second game, we traded off a little early on, but he started pulling ahead with some beaters. I survived until my seventh land drop and was able to cast Temporal Firestorm with one kicker to turn the tide. After that, I had him on the back foot and got him down to four life.

I had used a Lightning Strike on a creature earlier in the game, so he thought he was turning a corner. I did one last attack and he was able to block three of my four attackers by copying his Soaring Drake a couple times through Vesuvan Duplimancy paired with Gaea's Might and Shore Up. I was able to get my little Soldier token through his defenses for one point and zapped him with the second Lightning Strike he didn't know I had to make 2-0.

Round 3: Adam, Esper Ertai

How long have you played Magic?
I started about fifteen years ago, but really started playing around Alara Reborn.

Who or what got you into the game?
I played in high school with a few random cards and decks. I do recall a Mono-White soldier deck I had at the time. I was a sophomore in college around 2010 and saw a couple of my fellow frat brothers playing at the house. I went home, grabbed my bag of cards, and joined in. The following year, I got a couple of my roommates to start playing as well.

That's great! Continuing to share the fun! What do you enjoy about Magic?
Definitely the social aspect of playing. Honestly, the vast majority of my adult friends are people that I used to and sometimes still play Magic with.

Two Ertai Resurrecteds, Drag to the Bottom, Guardian of New Benalia

What is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
I was in a team constructed tournament that was split up into Standard, Modern, and Legacy. I was the Modern player piloting Copy-Cat in a battle against a Tron deck. Our Standard format partner had already lost his match and was assisting me.

I had the combo in hand, but needed my opponent to not exile my land with an Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger they were in the middle of casting. While my opponent and his friend are deciding what to exile, my buddy, whose name is also Adam, leans over and quietly, but not too quietly, expresses: "well, they could take out your Spreading Seas."

They took the bait and targeted the Spreading Seas. I untapped, showed them the combo, and won. It was the most savage Jedi mind trick I've ever been a party to.

Favorite Magic cards?
Snapcaster Mage

Match Result

This match was a disparity of games. Our first game took up half of the match. We'd gone back and forth between threats and removal. There wasn't any specific card that ran away with the game, but he pulled into a little more gas at the end and closed things out.

The second game wasn't as eventful since I was stuck on two lands for way too many turns. I held out as best I could and eventually cast Temporal Firestorm again, but with a late Automatic Librarian and a Stall for Time, I had my first loss. Overall record: 2-1.

Round 4: Justin, Rakdos Removal

How long have you played Magic?
I've been playing for about ten years. My first booster pack I opened was Gatecrash, but I truly started playing during Dragon's Maze.

Who or what got you into the game?
I overheard some friends on my robotics team playing and they started me into it. I started to get more involved in the game then they were, so I located a game store, and was hooked from there.

What do you enjoy about Magic?
I enjoy the strategy and build of limited formats. Working out the optimal design within the constraints of what you get. I play constructed formats as well, but I'll usually latch onto one of the popular decks and tweak that a little instead of trying to break the format.

What constructed format and decks are you currently playing?
I've been frequenting Modern. I played Grixis Death's Shadow and Heliod Company for a while, but I've been building Yawgmoth as of late.

Jaya, Fiery Negotiator, Rivaz of the Claw, Lagomos, Hand of Hatred

What is one of your favorite memories involving the game?
The first time I went 5-0 in an FNM. It was the week after Bloodbraid Elf was unbanned in Modern, so I hadn't even previously played the deck. I had Collected Company, Knight of the Reliquary, and other related Naya components. The feeling after winning that event was tremendous!

I know for a while you worked in a game store. Did that change how you approached the game?
It definitely changed me, but as Magic evolved, so did I. While I was working, my individual enjoyment of the game was tempered somewhat. I had fun helping people learn and provide a service, but of course, that took away some of the attention I would normally give myself.

After I no longer worked there, I was able to get back that focus and enjoy the game even more. I did enjoy being a part of the team though. I gained a different perspective on the Magic trends, the cards people said were hot, and which cards actually were.

Interesting. Can you give me an example of a card that you heard people saying was great, but actually wasn't?
The first one that comes to mind is Lightning Helix. It's a fine card, but it never seemed like people were always asking for it, even though everyone said it was always sought after. My guess is because most people already had copies. On the inverse, people were always asking for Altar's Reap. Couldn't have enough of them.

Favorite Magic cards?
Taking into consideration its design, I'd say Raging River. I've never played the card, but the thought of placing half of your opponents creatures on one side, and the other half on the opposing side, is awesome in its concept.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Raging River

What about cards you have played with?
I've got a soft spot for Knight of the Reliquary. Being able to retrieve any land is just great utility.

Match Result

Justin started the first game off fast, with continuous early plays of Yavimaya Steelcrusher, Lagomos, Hand of Hatred, and Rivaz of the Claw. I saw the writing on the wall when Jaya, Fiery Negotiator came out and I'm still trying to keep something on the board.

Fortunately for me, Justin slowed down somewhat on our second and third games. We played a little removal back-and-forth, but he drew more lands than I in the later turns, and I was able to clinch the win with Elas il-Kor, Sadistic Pilgrim and Aron, Benalia's Ruin.

Winning was the difference of one pack, so before we started we went ahead and split the result. We were able to just enjoy playing the game. 2-2 (3-1, in my mind).

Event Wrap-Up

As I mentioned, prereleases are always a great time. Win or lose you get to open packs, build a deck, and hang out with your local Magic community. Come back next week and join me when I take on a second prerelease event at another local game store, the Illuminaudi.

So how was your prerelease event? Did you pull some great cards or have a great (or not so great) story to share? Were you able to make new Magic friends? Feel free to let us know either in the comments below or on Twitter.

August ’22 Metagame Analysis: An Era Ending?

Posted on September 9, 2022October 9, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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I'd like to open this month's metagame analysis article with a cliche about the inevitability of change. I leave it to the reader to pick which one. They're all equally applicable. Modern is in a weird position, which means there's a shift in the winds. The metagame doesn't look very different for the average player. However, diving into the data shows that there's considerable change occurring. Whether these particular shifts are indicative of a sustained shift is impossible to say, but given that Dominaria United (DMU) just became legal, Modern should have some churn for the next month.

Time For the Check-Up

First things first, time to check in on the experimental groups. I've been tracking how the top 11 decks from March have been performing, and it revealed a worrying upward trend. I was anticipating August to follow trend and indicate Modern was dangerously concentrated. This did not occur, and the Magic: Online (MTGO) data is quite dramatic.

Deck Name	March %	April %	May %	June %	July %	August %
UR Murktide	12.92	14.65	13.37	14.14	19.46	18.93
Cascade Crashers	7.58	7.55	5.49	5.20	2.09	0.79
Hammer Time	6.74	10.3	7.16	9.36	11.09	10.06
4-Color Blink	6.46	5.03	10.74	9.98	3.77	1.97
Living End	6.18	7.32	6.68	3.95	6.28	5.92
Amulet Titan	4.78	5.03	4.53	3.53	5.23	4.14
Yawgmoth	4.21	5.72	7.16	5.20	6.69	4.34
UW Control	3.65	1.83	3.58	2.70	2.09	3.94
Burn	3.37	4.35	4.06	6.24	4.60	5.32
Mono-Green Tron	3.37	3.20	1.68	2.70	2.30	4.34
Grixis Shadow	3.37	2.29	1.68	5.61	7.11	3.35

Modern's outlier best deck, UR Murktide, saw a statistically insignificant drop in August, but runner-up Hammer Time had a meaningful drop-off. This was accompanied by a number of other decks crashing while only a few saw meaningful upticks. This is more obvious on the graph:

What *does* MTGO have against Grixis Shadow?

The gaps are still quite large between the outlier decks and the rest, but there's clearly been a net decline. What's most strange is how widely these trends differ from the paper results:

Deck Name	March %	April %	May %	June %	July %	August %
UR Murktide	10.08	7.64	12.75	11.88	13.02	12.96
Cascade Crashers	6.52	9.20	7.16	5.20	6.26	6.06
Hammer Time	4.15	3.90	5.30	6.25	6.13	8.25
4-Color Blink	0.79	5.77	7.31	8.28	6.39	4.88
Living End	3.95	3.74	2.58	3.59	4.47	5.22
Amulet Titan	6.32	4.99	3.44	4.22	4.98	5.56
Yawgmoth	3.36	3.12	4.73	5.00	6.13	3.37
UW Control	6.72	5.46	3.87	3.43	3.83	2.52
Burn	5.73	4.99	4.73	3.28	5.11	7.07
Mono-Green Tron	1.78	2.81	2.44	3.28	2.30	1.52
Grixis Shadow	4.74	1.40	4.15	3.43	4.09	2.86

Murktide continues along effectively unchanged but everything else is in chaos. July represented a convergence of sorts but that has gone out the window. Many decks have continued the previous trends, but many others have gone wildly rogue.

Also worth noting is that the overall gap between Murktide and the rest of the sampled decks shrunk. In fact, taking Murktide out of the equation makes the overall picture look like a pretty healthy metagame.

An Improvement

Which leads nicely into my main point. Modern appears to have been much healthier in August. In July, I sounded the alarm over metagame concentration when the MTGO sample accounted for 70% of the field. I'm pleased to say that I don't need to do that this month.

	March %	April %	May %	June %	July %	August %
MTGO	62.63	67.27	66.13	68.61	70.71	63.1
Paper	54.14	53.02	54.31	57.84	62.71	60.27

MTGO's concentration fell by 7%, which is statistically enormous. Paper's 2% fall is less impressive, but still meaningful. Given that the only one of these decks which didn't make the tier list is Cascade Crashers and that was only true of MTGO is especially important, indicating a diversification. Even though the total number of decks on the list is lower than some months.

MTGO's concentration has fallen to a level not seen since March, while paper's is still up on net. This might be a sustained trend, or it might not be. It's only one data point. However, it is a good sign that Modern is at least trying to shake itself out of the doldrums and get some fresh blood into the mix.

Be Cautious

So, remember a few paragraphs ago when I said that Modern appears healthier because the sample's concentration is down? Appears is the operative word. Refer back this week's data article. Blink is being replaced by 4-Color Control online, and if I'd switched out Blink's number for Control's, then MTGO's concentration would be substantially higher.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Omnath, Locus of Creation

It's also worth remembering that the surging Indomitable Creativity decks aren't included in the sample. They just weren't played at the start of the study period. At least some of the loss of metagame share that the sampled decks suffered can be placed at Creativity's hands, and I suspect that were this study a comparison of just the top decks rather than a fixed series, the overall concentration would be unchanged at best.

Getting Creative

On the subject of Creativity decks, what's up with the surge? Creativity has been around for quite a while and hasn't performed. There have been several variants hanging around since March, but they've always been in Tier 3. The Temur version cracked Tier 2 and has been on a steady upward trajectory since June, with many other versions starting to filter into Tier 3. What's going on?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Indomitable Creativity

First of all, I don't believe that this is an actual metagame shift. Creativity has been part of Modern for months and is just doing better suddenly. That can just happen as players get bored of decks and move on rather than representing an actual change in viability. This is also my second-best explanation for why Omnath, Locus of Creation players swing between playing Ephemerate or not on a monthly basis.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Archon of Cruelty

Rather, to me this surge smacks of players finally optimizing the deck. There have been a number of different Archon of Cruelty decks since Modern Horizons 2, but none have good enough to maintain metagame presence. The newish Temur Creativity may have solved the puzzle. Whether it can sustain the push is another matter.

Art Criticism

First, to be clear, Archon does not count towards any deck's color identity. It's a payoff to be cheated out rather than cast. Thus, while Temur Creativity has Archon in the deck, all the spells that it intends to cast are red, blue, or green.

When all this began, Creativity was essentially 4-Color Control altered to support Creativity. This always made the deck weirdly unstable, at least in my experience. All the control elements were still there, but unlike the Omnath decks, it didn't drown the opponent in card advantage. It cheated out Archon and hoped that was good enough. The constraints imposed on the manabase to make Dwarven Mine work made it harder than necessary to meet all the color requirements. Consequently, 4-Color Creativity was and continues to be pretty mediocre.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dwarven Mine

However, the appeal of Creativity into Archon is great enough that players have been trying to fix the problem since it was identified. One of the earliest attempts was effectively hybridizing the deck with Reanimator to get Grixis Creativity. On paper it makes sense. Looting effects find Creativity while setting up Persist, and there are two options to cheat out Archon. Which does work, but not consistently. The data shows that when Creativity wins, it wins big, but those wins are sparse. That's how it goes with split-plan decks.

Successful Artist

Temur Creativity is a relatively recent addition and is demonstrably the most successful. This is partially because getting rid of white makes the mana base far more rational and stable. I argue that a bigger factor is that the Temur variant finally embraces Creativity's identity. From the beginning, I've said that Creativity is the Show and Tell of Modern, and it looks like Temur really gets that.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Show and Tell

Temur versions are playing more cheap, defensive counters like Spell Pierce and Flusterstorm with Veil of Summer in the sideboard to beat other counterspell decks, just like Show used to do. The fact that they're useful against cascade decks is a bonus. They're also playing more on-board interaction than most and have ramp so they don't just get raced. These tweaks help Temur Creativity thrive in a Murktide-heavy metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wrenn and Six

However, in the near future, this will not last. Leyline Binding is convincing many players to ditch color discipline. Frank Karsten did the math, and it looks convincing. Splashing isn't that hard. Whether this will be successful is unclear, and that might lead to Temur coming back into favor down the line.

The Crash Problem

To slightly circle back, the MTGO concentration drop was so dramatic because of three decks: Grixis Shadow, Cascade Crashers, and 4-Color Blink. All three had severe drops on MTGO with much smaller drops in paper, too. Crasher's specifically is too small to be anything other than statistical noise. While there may be more going on with Shadow's fall, Blink and Crasher's fall on MTGO has an easy explanation: they're really expensive online.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

Both decks have pricy manabases and play a lot of rares, which necessarily ups the price. However, one card in particular seems to be pricing players out. Endurance is a highly played, highly in-demand card and retails between $50-$60. However, online it's currently running around 63 tix, which is exorbitant by MTGO standards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Endurance

In paper, many 4-Color and Crasher decks play at least three Endurance, and many play a full set between maindeck and sideboard, which translates to at least 180 tix. Given that the rental price limit is 900-1200 (depending on service) and the rest of the deck is pretty costly, Endurance appears to be pricing players out of the decks. Their falls started in July, which correlated with a price spike on Endurance, so the link is plausible. Since paper has never been as affected by price, the decline has been lower.

Shadow's Fall

The decline of Grixis Shadow is not so easily explainable. It was on an upswing in July before just cratering in both paper and MTGO. I don't have a great explanation for why. Burn ran hot in August, but Burn isn't exactly a predator of Shadow decks, nor has it ever been. The matchup is quite even in my experience. Creativity being well positioned against it is possible, but that seems counter-intuitive. Shadow's gameplan should be good against Creativity. There must be more nuance to Shadow's metagame positioning to drive this fall. I'm not a Shadow player, but if there are any with insight reading this, please leave a comment.

Incoming Opportunities

The day this article goes live is the same day that Dominaria United becomes legal in paper. This will be the primary driving force in Modern for September, at least as strong as the metagame forces I've been discussing in this article. How it will shake out is impossible to know. However, most of the attention and money are moving towards two cards.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leyline Binding

The aforementioned Leyline Binding is the big one. It's been legal on MTGO for a week now and is being shoved into everything. It turns out that Oblivion Ring at instant speed is good, and getting it cheaper is even better. However, there are a lot of ways to answer Binding and even punish players trying to rush it out, so I don't know how sustained the push will be. Still, in the near-term, look at 4-color mana bases to move. I just wouldn't make special effort to hold for a long-term price increase.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rundvelt Hordemaster

The other nexus is Rundvelt Hordemaster. I'm more skeptical of Hordemaster being needed in Goblins than most, but that's irrelevant. Goblins has always been a solid creature-combo deck and Hordemaster highlights that fact. It doesn't really impact Goblins's ability to find and execute any of its combos, but it feels like it should. Consequently, interest in Goblins is higher than ever, and that's already pushing up its play numbers. Expect demand for Goblins to be strong in the short term but to cool as players adjust.

Change Is Here

When next I look at the metagame, Modern will be a different place. How different is an open question. I would be surprised if Murktide or Hammer actually fell off after all this time, but it is possible as interests diversify thanks to DMU. We all have to wait and see if there's an actual metagame shift or just a fluctuation.