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Insider: High Stakes MTGO – Mar 13th to Mar 19th

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Hello and welcome back for another High Stakes MTGO article!

As the Shadow over Innistrad (SOI) spoilers list grows every day, Standard and even Modern prices are adjusting consequently. I haven't been able to buy all the cards I wanted to in Standard and if I already hold several Magic Origins (ORI) positions there are a lot of cards susceptible to increases from Dragon of Tarkir (DTK) and Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) that I should definitely put some tix into.

Whatever I end up buying, one of my goals with this new Standard rotation will be to capitalize on every card spike and not wait too long for hypothetical future growths. It's been a recurring problem with my Standard specs and I really intend to correct that from now on.

When a card has doubled in the wake of Pro Tour results, selling appears to have been the best move every time. The Warden of the First Tree scenario is something I do not wish to reproduce.

In Modern I'm trying to be as ready as possible for a another big change to the format. As usual the strategy is fairly linear here---buy everything that has been played in the past and that is low in price now. Selling into the hype of Eldrazi decks being weakened is also something I'm looking forward to.

Here is the link to my live portfolio.

Buys This Week

drag

After reading Luca's article a week and a half ago it made sense that these two dragons were interesting targets. The reason I only bought these two Dragons of Tarkir cards at the moment is very simple: I have a limited amount of time to dedicate to MTGO specs these days and these two positions were among the most expensive DTK potential specs I didn't hold already. It makes it easier and faster therefore to invest more tix at once.

With DTK being a third large set, cards can spike more easily than Battle for Zendikar, for instance, and that's why I would rather focus on DTK than BFZ whenever my time is restricted.

Luca mentioned a lot of other great targets to keep an eye on. In the following weeks I'll try to squeeze in more of the positions he talked about which are susceptible to gain value after Standard rotates.

BFZ4

Four more playsets of BFZ full sets, as low as 58 tix this past week. The price is currently rebounding a little bit with everyone buying everything that's remotely synergistic with Shadows over Innistrad spoilers. We may have reached the absolute bottom for this set and I will probably buy another playset or two this week to seal my position with BFZ full sets.

CoS

A big spike followed by a big drop and Cavern of Souls is pretty much back to where it was pre-Eldrazi, when I bought my last round. This card certainly has a bright future and it seems like tribal SOI spoilers have already pushed the price of the Cavern up a bit this past week.

Cavern of Souls might well be over 40 tix again after the release of SOI and a change in the Modern ban list. At almost 25 tix per copy with the potential to double, that's the perfect target for my bankroll.

BM

My only spec after the 9th Edition flashback drafts. We'll see how it goes with a new Modern metagame but it is objectively a solid pick.

Note that all versions of Blood Moon are very similar in terms of prices. I happened to buy the 9th Edition version simply because it was the cheapest when I bought my copies. Price history doesn't really seem to point to a premium price for the Modern Masters version so I'm totally okay with white-bordered moons.

Sales This Week

Surprise, I sold some painlands this week! While Shivan Reef stabilizes around 3.5 tix, Yavimaya Coast is crushing the 1.5 tix bar. Two prices I'm happy to sell these two painlands at. Now I wish Llanowar Wastes and Battlefield Forge would follow their footsteps.

The last two positions from my February legacy specs. Force of Will didn't pan out as I expected but with a certain reprint this summer in Eternal Masters it was time to sell.

Lion's Eye Diamond on the contrary did pretty good and I actually sold while the price was still trending up. It has reached my goals and I don't want to risk being caught by surprise by collateral damages from SOI release events and the end of Legacy leagues. Overall, my seven Legacy specs made 418 tix.

Please, more of these! It is really satisfying when Modern prices fluctuate like this and you can ride the trends. What's even better here is to see such volatility in cards with an already high price tag that aren't bulk specs. Jace may have a shot at higher prices in a near future but here again that's perfectly in line with my strategy of moderate profits with the fastest turnover possible.

With Ravnica block flashback drafts launched this past week I cut my losses with a position that was absolutely not favored by the Eldrazi hegemony. The applications of Shadow of Doubt are rather limited in Modern but the current Modern flashback series is certainly creating a great buying opportunity if you wanted to buy in again.

One of the most powerful draw spells ever created. Only legal in Standard and unfortunately barely played in Standard. My fault only, this spec went right down the trash can. I was not trying to beat any record here but with a -95.2% and a loss of 101 tix this was for sure my worst spec ever.

On My Radar

The Legendary Cube Prize (PZ1) packs became last weekend not only my most successful booster specs, but entered the very small club of boosters that doubled in price, and the whole thing happened in less than four months.

PZ1 packs

Yesterday the buying price of PZ1 packs was over 2.8 tix at Goatbots and MTGO Traders. I could not pass up this opportunity to sell a few boosters with an incredible profit margin of more than 80%.

In the spirit of what I was saying in the introduction about taking sure profit while it's available, I will strongly consider selling more packs in the following days. The release of SOI and potential spoilers and rumors around EMA could negatively affect the price of PZ1 packs. Also, almost any day WotC can announce an MTGO event in which PZ1 would be awarded. With such a high price now, let's not take that risk.

I also have a few PZ1 singles. Similarly it may be time to sell some or all of them. Curiously the Legendary Cube set price hasn't followed the most recent price hike recorded for the packs.

PZ1 set

When I invested in PZ1 singles my focus was on Commander set cards and more specifically Commander 2015 cards only available through the PZ1 set. All my positions are up and some have tripled.

These nice price increases could be ruined if some of these cards are spoiled in EMA. We are still months away from more EMA spoilers but leaks seem to be common these days and I would expect players to focus more on Standard and Modern in a near future. A few cards from PZ1 are also played in Legacy and I would think the end of Legacy leagues mid-April could impact single and booster prices.

Finally, selling PZ1 positions now is good timing for reinvesting several hundred tix in BFZ and OGW singles and full sets.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain

Insider: Modern Tribal & Shadows Over Innistrad

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Who doesn't love tribal decks? Even in a format as spikey as Modern, everyone always gets more excited about pushed tribal spoilers than the boring, Abzan-colored new Vindicates. With Elves in Tier 2, Merfolk bouncing between Tier 1 and Tier 2, and players trying to get Allies, Slivers, and Goblins to work since the format's birth, it's no wonder that Shadows over Innistrad is renewing our passion for all things tribal.

Besides, even if you can't stand the gimmicky, worse-than-Affinity (or worse-than-Abzan Company) creature decks, it's hard not to profit from the tribal fanatics across the format.

Loving Tribal in Modern

(Merfolk weren't invited to the image-spread above---they get plenty of Modern love as-is.)

Despite their popularity, tribal strategies often get a bum rap in competitive Modern, often for good reason. Most Modern tribal options are worse than either the existing tribal all-stars (Merfolk), the current fast-aggro benchmarks (Burn, Affinity and Zoo), or the best go-wide exemplars (Elves, which is also tribal, and B/W Tokens). No matter what tribal deck you're playing, there's a good chance it's worse than something on that list.

But don't give up hope just yet! Shadows over Innistrad has plenty of new staples to join the fight for each tribe, some of which even address the historic weaknesses of these decks in Modern. Although it's unlikely any of these new cards will jump a deck from Tier Nothing to Tier 1, you should still see every tribal archetype improve by a small margin (maybe a slightly larger one) once Shadows hits tournament tables.

Today, I'll be focusing on the two tribal strategies that stand to gain the most from Shadows. After we look at these Tier 2 contenders, we'll also visit four other tribes further down the Modern tierings and see how Shadows can help them out. Of course, we'll also pay special attention to where these tribes can translate into big bucks for savvy investors and traders.

Leading the Human Charge

Of all the tribal decks looking to pick up manpower in Shadows, Humans is by far the best-positioned of the lot. This was already a fringe MTGO strategy throughout 2015, one I featured on Modern Nexus in both Naya and five-colored glory, and humanity's hopes are looking even stronger after Shadows.

As I talked about last Friday, humankind's chances rest in the hands of one stalwart lieutenant of Thraben.

Thalia's Lieutenant

At its core, Humans is an aggro strategy. There are other ways to build the deck, but if you don't want to be a bad version of Zoo, Merfolk, B/W Tokens, etc., then you need to be playing an aggro version specializing in going wide.

This gives you the fast burst of Gruul Zoo, the width of Tokens, and the heavy-hitters of Naya Zoo, all in one human coalition. That might not be enough to push Humans to Tier 1, but it should be enough to make the deck a much more regular Tier 2 or Tier 3 competitor.

Champion of the Parish is central to this strategy, matching Wild Nacatl's stats after you drop Lieutenant. Lieutenant is also the rare lord who grows your team even after she dies, not to mention growing herself as the game draws on.

I'm not sure if I want to get Humans working with Collected Company, Hardened Scales, Eldrazi Displacer, or any number of other synergies, but I do know I'm excited to try out the lot in April.

Fighting for Humanity in Modern

Any of the above humans stand to gain with a post-Shadows Human revolution. Same for necessary staples like Gavony Township---between Township and Lieutenant, even your dorks will be hitting like Tarmogoyfs by turns 5-6. Keep an eye out for more humans to help the cause (unlike with the other tribes, Wizards has been stingy with humans so far), and get on the Human hype-train accordingly.

In Good Spirits

Humans might be the most competitive tribe in post-Shadows Modern, but spirits is the one I'm most excited about. Between Topplegeist and Rattlechains, Spirits gets two huge tempo players at the one and two slot respectively. This opens up a ton of space for Spirits to glow in Modern in new and exciting ways.

rattlechains topplegeist

Jordan Boisvert, one of our Modern Nexus authors, recently wrote an article about a techy U/W Tallowisp deck using Shadows cards.

In addition to natural synergy with spirits, Tallowisp also gets enchantments in circulation to enable Topplegeist's delirium. Rattlechains completes the picture by protecting the fragile Tallowisp, and letting you keep up removal and countermagic mana both for Chains and subsequent spirits.

If auras aren't your thing, try Geist of Saint Traft instead, an old Innistrad favorite who loves when Topplegeist taps down blockers. Like Jordan's build, yours can combine Tallowisp with the Geist, or you can try Esper with Lingering Souls, hand disruption, and maybe even Obzedat, Ghost Council.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Obzedat, Ghost Council

If I had to sleeve up a competitive spirits strategy for tomorrow, I'd start with a Jeskai Black list with Rattle and Topple, Geist of Saint Traft, Lingering Souls, and all the burn and countermagic that characterizes a Jeskai Midrange shell. Snapcaster Mage can join in too. The key is defeating removal with Rattlechains early (it even beats Abrupt Decay!) before closing out with fliers and Geist on an empty or tapped-down board.

Spirit Potential in Modern

Neither Topple nor Rattle are particularly enticing spec targets, but some of the older spirits could be interesting depending on how the Spirits deck ends up looking. Don't stray too far from mainstay Modern strategies (e.g. careful with those clunky Drogskols) and the Spirits core can easily start working for you.

Werewolves and Zombies and Horrors, Oh My!

And vampires! Don't forget the vampires. In this last section before we close out for the day, I want to visit all the other Shadows tribes which stand to gain from the new set.

Unlike the human hegemony and the spirit society, these tribes are unlikely to make too big of a Modern impact even after getting their new toys. That won't discourage brewers and longtime tribe fans from trying, so here's a quick breakdown of their different offerings.

Werewolves

Everyone wants those Huntmaster of the Fells to have a home in Modern outside of Jund and rogue Temur strategies. Don't they deserve to lead a tribe, not just play backup dancer to Tarmogoyf? Werewolves have struggled in Modern in the face of better tribes (Merfolk) and superior aggro options (Zoo), and unfortunately, Shadows appears unlikely to change that.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Huntmaster of the Fells

If Werewolves ever became a thing, Huntmaster is clearly the speculation target you'll want to go after. He's a mythic rare, has only one printing, and already sees Modern play without any new demand.

That said, the werewolves we've seen so far in Shadows aren't enough to get him there. The aggressive wolves are almost all worse than Wild Nacatls and Tarmogoyfs, and the lords just aren't cheap enough to cut it against Lightning Bolt.

Huntmaster and human staple Mayor of Avabruck are probably the best werewolves out there for investors, so jump on these if you see new previews to make the tribe work (hint: look for either hyper-aggressive one-drops, lords at two mana, or enters-the-battlefield creatures that synergize with Collected Company).

Zombies

I know there are people out there with dozens of foil Gravecrawlers just waiting for the Modern community to rise up and moan "BRAAAINNSS" as they take down a Grand Prix. Despite some pushed zombie staples in Shadows, this tribe is unlikely to gain a lot of ground even after the new undead horde is unleashed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gravecrawler

Zombie fans have been trying to get this tribe to work in Modern since the last trip to Innistrad, and Relentless Dead has been leading this recent charge. Between Death Baron, Diregraf Captain, and Lord of the Undead, Zombies have no shortage of lords to support the strategy.

relentlessdead

Unfortunately, they are all in the three slot as opposed to Merfolk's critical Lord of Atlantis/Master of the Pearl Trident at two. The other Zombies are too grindy to compete with Modern's legitimate grind-masters (Jund, Abzan, Abzan Company, etc.), and the aggression just isn't there yet.

Judging by the zombies we've seen so far, you'll need to satisfy your appetite for brains in Limited and not in Modern. If you see any new zombies to push the envelope (look for two-cost lords and one-cost beaters), then Gravecrawler and Geralf's Messenger become much better investment targets.

Horrors

A transformed Thing in the Ice bounces all non-horror creatures. Most decks care about this more for the tempo than anything else, but most decks aren't also trying to run horror tribal (!!) in Modern. If it sounds too weird to be true, that's partially because you aren't thinking deep enough, and partially because you're totally right.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hunted Horror

In one of the least justified buyouts in recent Modern history, a bunch of optimistic speculators (at best) or market-fixing nuts (at worst) jacked up the Hunted Horror stock from $3.00 to over $12.00 in a 24 hour buyout.

I guarantee you 90% or more of these purchasers have not tested this synergy in Modern. 50% or more may not even play the format. In the dream scenario, you play Horror right before flipping Thing, bouncing the two centaurs into oblivion before swinging for 14 with your two monsters.

The dream scenario is a lie. This strategy is just as fragile now as when people tried to make it work with Leyline of Singularity, back when you could even use the Leyline to screw with Twin decks. It's basically a 4-5 card combo of Thing, Horror, spells to flip Thing, and cards to protect both of your useless creatures while your opponent wins with Affinity or disrupts you with Jund. No thanks.

If you still have Hunted Horror s in your binder, sell into this nonsensical spike. Of course, the other part of living the nightmare is the much more solid Spellskite.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spellskite

Unlike Hunted Horror, Spellskite is an incredibly playable Modern card that protects both your valuable Thing and your garbage 7/7 trampler. Honestly, Spellskite is a great investment period, so now is as good a time as any to buy in. But if you do purchase, don't do so with the intention of playing House of Horrors (or whatever name the hype-train is giving this pile).

Vampires

It's always surprising to me that the supposedly devious, manipulative, and patient tribe is also the most aggressive in this current Innistrad world. Of the four tribes in this section, vampires is the closest to being Modern playable, with some competitive one- and two-drops to initiate aggression and some bigger creatures to close out the mid-game. Hope you got those Kalitas, Traitor of Ghets early!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kalitas, Traitor of Ghet

If Kalitas is your midrange trump, Falkenrath Gorger (aka better Jackal Pup), Heir to Falkenrath (aka blood-sucking Delver of Secrets), and trusty Bloodghast (aka party like it's 2011) are your frontline fighters. Kalastria Highborn can join in to give you some reach and Bolt resilience, with some combination of Captivating Vampire, Stromkirk Captain, and Vampire Nocturnus giving you the mid-game lords.

Vampire Sturm

Vampires gets some points over the other tribes for better synergies with Bolt, Command, and Thoughtseize/Inquisition of Kozilek, not to mention a sacrifice engine which closes out games even on a stable board. Neither Burn nor Zoo can boast that edge, which makes Vampires semi-viable after Shadows, assuming the cards are there.

Any of those above staples will prove worthy investment targets, especially if you see vampires get another two-cost lord.

All the Rest!

I know there's going to be someone out there who can't wait to get their angel or demon tribal strategy off the ground, and if you have questions about these other creature types, bring them down to the comments and we can talk there. Always be on the lookout for playable vermin to pair with the awesome Swarmyard spec target!

More Shadows Over Innistrad to Come!

The tribal bug gets to me as much as the next Modern guy, but I'm more excited for the non-tribal possibilities as Shadows previews keep on coming. Specifically, clue tokens promise to be the enabler I've been waiting for in my Shape Anew brews, not to mention the toolbox possibilities around Traverse the Ulvenwald.

That atrocious five-mana counterspell might have ruined my hopes for a Cancel plus clues, but with more than half of the set left to go, there's still hope for Blightsteel Colossus!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shape Anew

Thanks for reading and I'll see you all next week with more exciting Shadows over Innistrad spoiler reviews. Maybe we'll have the two-cost lords many of these decks need by then! Got any card evaluation questions? Deck-building ideas? Hit me up in the comments and we'll talk soon!

Infographic – The Value of Recent Sets

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Unexpected bans, card spikes, new tier one decks rising... Among others, these factors influence the value of the latest printed sets over and over again.

Which set is the most valuable? How much of a set's value can a single card hold? How have different sets changed value since their release date?

In this infographic you will finally be able to discover all you need to know!

QS_model02

QS_model02

Insider: QS Cast 27: Mad Vampires

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Play

This week, the cast talks ideal aggro curves and the emerging B/R Vampires deck. They discuss:

  • Drana as a great Vampire to lead the top end of the fight
  • Arlinn Kord and Nahiri, one being awesome and the other being… well, not great
  • The general high quality of the rares and mythics in the set.

 

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Spirited Away: Tribal Brewing with Shadows Over Innistrad

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It’s the most wonderful time of the year: spoiler season! Shadows Over Innistrad is packed with intriguing card designs and eerie flair. Best of all, Wizards is pushing big-hit, casual tribal archetypes like Spirits and Vampires. We’ve heard rumors about Emrakul being on Innistrad, but I can’t be the only one relieved to not see colorless mana symbols in the Shadows creature costs.

tallowisp art crop

Down with Eldrazi! Up with… Spirits! Today, we'll examine the set’s big talking points and update a ghastly old brew for a fresh new Modern.

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Shadows Over Innistrad: Modern Hopefuls

While Shadows Over Innistrad doesn't have as many obvious Modern playables as Oath of the Gatewatch, it certainly houses a slew of curious cards that may or may not make it into the format. In keeping with the expansion's spooky theme, this section gives a card-by-card analysis of the 13 (!!!) cards I find the most worthy of analysis.

  • [tippy title="Arlinn Kord" width="330" height="330"]1_arlinn[/tippy]: Some friends have approached me about including Arlinn in my GRx Moon decks. I've long clamored for another 2RG beater to complement Huntmaster of the Fells. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Arlinn is up to the task. She's definitely worse than Huntmaster, and probably worse than Siege Rhino + Abrupt Decay, which is where I landed in my dork builds. But I like her versatility - against decks without Lightning Bolt, Arlinn starts pumping out a Wolf army immediately; against Bolt decks, she can immediately tick up to four. My favorite thing about the planeswalker: she pumps Goyf from the graveyard!

  • [tippy title="Epiphany at the Drownyard" width="330" height="330"]
    epiphanyatthedrownyard[/tippy]: UWx already has the superior Sphinx's Revelation, and URx combo probably prefers Commune with Lava. That leaves URx Midrange, an archetype that hasn't existed in Modern since the Twin ban. When it did exist, the comparable Steam Augury saw exactly no play. Epiphany seems a little better than Augury, but the Izzet Fact or Fiction’s utter failure doesn’t bode well for its Shadows rendition in Modern, which also lets opponents choose which pile we take home.

  • [tippy title="To the Slaughter" width="330" height="330"]to the slaughter[/tippy]: Should Jund reclaim its fun-police throne after the to the slaughterEldrazi bite a ban in April, I can see this card playing trump in the mirror. Eating Goyf and Liliana with one card should put casters very far ahead, and delirium is very easy to achieve in BGx decks.

  • [tippy title="Falkenrath Gorger" width="330" height="330"]
    falkenrathgorger[/tippy]: Wizards seems to be pushing casual tribal archetypes. We have Gorger for Vampires and [tippy title="Rattlechains" width="330" height="330"]
    rattlechains[/tippy] for Spirits, and I bet we’ll get a white Human (EDITOR'S NOTE: prediction fulfilled!), a green Werewolf, and a black Zombie before the dust settles. For his part, Gorger plays so well with my good pal Faithless Looting that I’d be remiss not to mention him.
  • [tippy title="Nahiri, the Harbinger" width="330" height="330"]
    1_nahiri[/tippy]: Four mana has always been a lot for Modern planeswalkers. At her exact mana cost, Nahiri has Ajani to wrestle with, and the Helixing cat already sees very little play. I doubt Nahiri goes places.
  • [tippy title="Anguished Unmaking" width="330" height="330"]
    anguishedunmaking[/tippy]: “A pain beyond description,” reads the flavor text. In a Goblin Guide format, that means three life. Unmaking seems worse to me than Maelstrom Pulse in Abzan-colored decks, but it at least gives other BWx decks a versatile catch-all removal option.
  • [tippy title="Thing in the Ice" width="330" height="330"]
    1_thing[/tippy]: I tested Thing in iGrow when it was spoiled, and was underwhelmed. In that deck - and, I posit, in most URx Delver decks - it’s not really better than Young Pyromancer, who would have made four 1/1s by the time Thing transforms. With Pyromancer, we keep the value even if our two-drop meets Abrupt Decay a turn later. Thing also doesn’t get along with Delver’s other threats, since they all delve, transform, or make tokens. It’s still Bolt-proof, and I can see Thing at least showing up in Storm as a sideboard plan. Thing also interacts favorably with Snapcaster Mage, and I wouldn’t put it past Modernites to develop a competent URx Midrange deck with the card.
  • relentless dead[tippy title="Relentless Dead" width="330" height="330"]
    relentless dead[/tippy]: Serious card advantage for Zombie tribal decks. Wait, Zombie tribal decks? If Dredge doesn’t exist, neither will Zombie tribal, despite how pushed Relentless Dead appears.
  • [tippy title="Diregraf Colossus" width="330" height="330"]
    diregrafcolossus[/tippy]: Now, that’s support. Bolt-proof with some minimal graveyard enablers, and generates a token every time you cast Gravecrawler from the trash bin. Maybe I spoke too fast on Zombie tribal.
  • [tippy title="Heir of Falkenrath" width="330" height="330"]
    heiroffalkenrath[/tippy]: Remember Choose Your Own Adventure? Heir offers kids a new interactive story… Flip Your Own Delver! My gut tells me Heir asks too much of players for its payoff, since Nivmagus Elemental more or less plays the same way with Phyrexian mana spells and boasts a much higher power ceiling. That said, Heir interacts well with madness and other graveyard mechanics, and can be played in a balls-to-the-wall aggro strategy. Delver of Secrets costs less, but bullies players into building spell-heavy tempo decks.
  • [tippy title="Tooth Collector" width="330" height="330"]
    toothcollector[/tippy]: Man, this card really does it for me. It’s a Rogue, it machine-gunstoothcollector weenies, it has great art, and it has Tarmogoyf delirium! Competes with Orzhov Pontiff in Collected Company decks, but seems sweet in black midrange sideboards should decks like Infect pick up steam after April.
  • [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
    traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy]: My pick so far for best card in the set, and it's not close. Company decks may not want it, since often they’d rather spam their namesake instant than worry about stocking the graveyard with card types; that’s the reason they haven’t adopted Oath of Nissa. Traverse fits right into goodstuff spell-based aggro decks à la Delver or Jund. I say “à la” because I don’t predict it making a huge splash in either of those established archetypes; rather, I bet Traverse creates a new midrange toolbox archetype on its own. After all, the only cost for reliably turning this one-mana sorcery into Sylvan Scrying/Eladamri's Call is playing the best creature in its color - and in the format.
  • [tippy title="Invasive Surgery" width="330" height="330"]Invasive Surgery[/tippy]: My other favorite card from Shadows Over Innistrad. I’ve been waiting for a Modern-legal Envelop reprint since I played with that card at GP New Jersey last year, and Surgery makes Envelop strictly better by endowing it with the coolest mechanic ever. I hope April brings us plenty of Scapeshift, Lingering Souls, and Living End so I can squeeze this card into my airtight Temur Delver sideboard guilt-free.

Brewing UW Tallowisp

Anyone who reads my columns knows about my pet decks. URx Delver and GRx Moon are both well-documented on Modern Nexus. In truth, I have a couple other decks over a year in the making. You drogskol captainhaven't heard about them because they aren't any good. Both of these decks share a few qualities: they're full of read-me cards, they stand to not be playable until we get some serious tribal support, and Tarmogoyf fits into them effortlessly. One is a Rogue Tribal deck focused around Thieves' Fortune, and the other is Wx Tallowisp.

Before we jump into the deck discussion, know that Drogskol Captain's omission from this article is purposeful. I have little interest in building a Lingering Souls-centered midrange deck, and have never tested the Captain. For better or for worse, Wx Tallowisp focuses instead on micro-synergies between evasive creatures, card types in graveyards, and the world's cutest candle ghost.

I've taken the Tallowisp deck into a number of colors to include various creatures and spells. Here's what each has to offer:

  • Green: Noble Hierarch, Tarmogoyf; Traverse the Ulvenwald, Rancor, Keen Sense, Unflinching Courage
  • Blue: Geist of Saint Traft, Fettergeist, Meddling Mage; Serum Visions, Disrupting Shoal, Curiosity
  • Red: Eidolon of the Great Revel, Frostling; Blood Moon, Lightning Bolt, Tarfire, Lava Spike
  • Black: Nameless Inversion, Dead Weight

When Theros was announced, I got a little giddy. Finally, a block sure to usher in Tallowisp support! We all know how that turned out. The imminent arrival of [tippy title="Topplegeist" width="330" height="330"]
topplegeist[/tippy] and [tippy title="Rattlechains" width="330" height="330"]
rattlechains[/tippy] from Shadows Over Innistrad makes a good case for revisiting this archetype, and for leaning towards blue. In the last couple days, I've tried Bant, Naya, and Jeskai iterations of Wx Tallowisp, and have come to the conclusion that UW plays smoother and covers more bases than any other color combination. As I tweak the deck, I always keep 33 cards consistent.

UW Tallowisp Core

Creatures

4 Tallowisp
4 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Topplegeist
4 Rattlechains

Enchantments

1 Hyena Umbra
1 Curiosity
1 Temporal Isolation
1 Steel of the Godhead
1 Angelic Destiny

Instants

4 Path to Exile
4 Disrupting Shoal

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Creatures

topplegeist[tippy title="Topplegeist" width="330" height="330"]
topplegeist[/tippy]: The card that re-piqued my interest in Tallowisp strategies. [tippy title="Topplegeist" width="330" height="330"]
topplegeist[/tippy]'s delirium ability further rewards us for packing Serum Visions, as turning it on makes racing tapped-down ground teams in the air a trivial affair.

[tippy title="Rattlechains" width="330" height="330"]
rattlechains[/tippy]: A card I initially played as a two-of, [tippy title="Rattlechains" width="330" height="330"]
rattlechains[/tippy] impressed me so much I bumped its numbers to four. Flash lets us cast it in response to a spell, trigger Tallowisp, search for an Aura with CMC X, and pitch that card to Disrupting Shoal to counter the spell. We can do similar tricks with Shining Shoal, redirecting up to four damage with Angelic Destiny. And we really can't complain if Rattlechains's hexproof-granting 187 effect saves Tallowisp from Lightning Bolt along the way.

This card's final line of text is actually hugely relevant in this deck. Giving allrattlechains our Spirits flash lets us tap down creatures at Start of Combat with [tippy title="Topplegeist" width="330" height="330"]
topplegeist[/tippy], surprise-block with an enormous Fettergeist, or simply hold up Remand and Disrupting Shoal for however much and drop Geist of Saint Traft onto the battlefield before we untap.

Geist of Saint Traft: Our boss monster. I've never liked this card in Modern, always comparing it to Tarmogoyf. After all, Geist does the same thing in theory: he offers a lot of pressure for little mana. Goyf has Bolt-resistance, and Geist has removal-resistance, but Goyf can switch gears and wall aggro decks while Geist cannot. Furthermore, it's difficult to profitably block a Goyf in Modern, whereas Geist trades with Goblin Guide and actually gets shut out by Wild Nacatl.

For these reasons, Geist of Saint Traft is usually a worse Tarmogoyf. Not so in this deck. Since Geist is a Spirit, casting him with Tallowisp on board negates his drawback of being blocked by everything - Tallow can search up Steel of the Godhead to put opponents on a relevant clock. In lieu of a Steel, Geist also has notable synergy with [tippy title="Topplegeist" width="330" height="330"]
topplegeist[/tippy] in the mid- to late-game, which taps down potential blockers.

Auras

Hyena Umbra: Makes Tallowisp a tough-to-remove 2/4. Bolt decks will need to shoot him twice, and even that won't do more than remove the totem armor. Umbra also turns our flying spirits into respectable clocks, sets up a Curiosity slave, and protects Geist from Supreme Verdict effects.

Curiosity: Racing linear combo decks with damage isn't always possible. When we lack a Geist of Saint Traft, it can prove quite difficult to deal 20 damage before turn four. Curiosity lets us carry games with a lowly [tippy title="Rattlechains" width="330" height="330"]
rattlechains[/tippy], poking away and drawing into disruption to slow opponents down enough that we can get there with weenies. Most of these decks don't put blockers on the board, meaning Curiosity can enchant something as silly as temporal isolationTallowisp itself and still do admirable work. In other matchups, the enchantment similarly punishes delayed starts on the board and forces opponents to answer traditionally less menacing threats in a hurry.

Temporal Isolation: The searchable removal spell we deserve. Flash synergizes with countermagic and Shoals.

Steel of the Godhead: I've found Steel quite lackluster when we don't have Geist of Saint Traft, but I like having the option to Steel a Geist as early as turn four. Still, I might as well mention that I've won some games with lifelink on an Umbra-carrying white creature.

Spells

Path to Exile: Rogue aggro strategies can rarely exist in this format without packing powerful catch-alls. Modern's most flexible removal spell fits this role perfectly.

Disrupting ShoalDisrupting Shoal: As with Path to Exile, I don't think this deck could exist without Disrupting Shoal. Modern is full of ultra-fast linear strategies, and UW is simply too slow a color combination to handle them all effectively. We're in the aggro boat ourselves, and therefore lack access to reset buttons like Supreme Verdict. Since Shoal triggers Tallowisp, its drawback hurts us less than it does other decks, and our games usually go long enough to put hard-casting the arcane instant within reach.

Flex Spots

I've been testing this deck with 20 lands, so the above core leaves room for seven flex spots. Here are the cards I've experimented with so far:

Vedalken Outlander: An easy aura target since he can't be Bolted in response, Outlander adds the artifact card type for delirium when he does die. Notably pitches to both Shoals, and fully benefits from Steel of the Godhead. I decided I wanted more interaction in his slots.

Meddling MageMeddling Mage: Shares most out Outlander's benefits, but trades Bolt-proof for a wider disruptive range. Mage tested very well for me, and I would like to find room for him down the road. He shuts down linear combo strategies like Ad Nauseam and Scapeshift, and adds an additional skill-testing dimension to games that I appreciate.

Snapcaster Mage: It does feel weird to build a UW deck without Tiago. Unfortunately, Snapcaster doesn't have that many targets in this deck. Sure, in the way-late game he can flashback Shoals, and the Path-Visions suite might be enough to justify a copy or two. Right now, though, I'd rather have more reliable synergies or disruptive instruments.

fettergeistFettergeist: We all know how big a 3/4 is in Modern. Flying makes Fettergeist play like some mashup of Delver of Secrets and Tarmogoyf. The drawback hasn't been relevant for me so far, and I love flashing Fettergeist in to block an attacker with [tippy title="Rattlechains" width="330" height="330"]
rattlechains[/tippy] out. But three mana really is a world away from two in this format.

Remand: I prefer Remand to Mana Leak in this deck. We can fully benefit from the tempo swing it provides, and our curve is high enough that Remand isn't often clunky. Additionally, once we see the spell our opponent will probably play next turn, we can "prepare" by scrying accordingly with Visions, leaving up Shoal mana, or finding a disruptive Aura with Tallowisp.

shining shoalShining Shoal: When I tried a Jeskai build of Tallowisp yesterday (obviously, with Mantis Rider), I realized Bolts were often too redundant with Shining Shoal to matter much. Shoal plus any white spell saves Tallowisp from Lightning Bolt, and the card makes combat decisions horrible for opponents. We can also Shoal "nothing" to trigger Tallowisp, paying WW or pitching any white spell to find a key Aura on command.

wingsCrib Swap/Wings of Velis Vel: I like these tribal changeling cards because they do so many things - besides having an actual effect, they pitch to Shoals, trigger Tallowisp, and support delirium. Crib Swap seems like the better card at a glance, but Wings of Velis Vel is the one I actually tested. And I didn't hate it. It grows Geist to 4/4 after opponents declare blocks, saves any of our creatures from a Lightning Bolt, and hard-counters the most widely-played removal spell in the whole format: Victim of Night. (Gotcha!) Wings also pitches to Shoal for two, Modern's magic number. Crib Swap seems like a much worse Path to Exile to me, so I don't see ever playing it over Wings if we decide on running tribal changelings.

Ojutai's Command: Okay, I admit - I haven't actually tested this card. To be honest, spells that cost more than two mana kind of repulse me. Look at all those relevant modes, though. Counter a creature? Draw a card? Instant-speed return [tippy title="Topplegeist" width="330" height="330"]
topplegeist[/tippy] and tap down that Emrakul your opponent just Through the Breached? Or revive [tippy title="Rattlechains" width="330" height="330"]
rattlechains[/tippy] to save Tallowisp from Abrupt Decay?! I can see Ojutai's Command potentially finding its way in here.

With all that explaining out of the way, here's my current take on the deck:

UW Tallowisp, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Geist of Saint Traft
4 Topplegeist
4 Tallowisp
4 Rattlechains

Enchantments

1 Hyena Umbra
1 Curiosity
2 Temporal Isolation
1 Steel of the Godhead
1 Angelic Destiny

Instants

4 Path to Exile
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Remand
3 Shining Shoal

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Flooded Strand
4 Misty Rainforest
3 Hallowed Fountain
4 Seachrome Coast
1 Moorland Haunt
2 Plains
2 Island

Sideboard

2 Invasive Surgery
2 Kataki, War's Wage
3 Spreading Seas
3 Negate
2 Disenchant
1 Temporal Isolation
2 Threads of Disloyalty

Sunshine Over Modern

Shadows Over Innistrad could prove a relative failure for Modern and bring a welcome metagame shift anyway. As Shadows becomes sanctioned, the dark Eldrazi veil that’s coated Modern since the Pro Tour will finally lift. A month ago, I would have never considered building UW Tallowisp. With Eldrazi gone, Modern will get its remarkable, addictive design space back. At the time I wrote this article, I was having a blast beating up on unsuspecting Cockatrice grinders with flying weenies; now, I can hardly pull away from tinkering with [tippy title="Traverse the Ulvenwald" width="330" height="330"]
traverse the ulvenwald[/tippy]. (Somehow, I managed to include this addendum.)

But I don’t think Shadows will fail us of its own accord. Power levels aside, the design harkens back to the infamous richness of its parent block. And did I mention the flavor? Shadows even has it at the meta-level. If delirium is any indication, Innistrad isn't just Delver's home plane - it's Tarmogoyf's, too!

Insider: Does Pre-Rotation Hype Last? A Case Study

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Spoiler season is upon us and I am dedicating this article to a question I have been asking myself. Are MTGO speculators accurate in their assessments of how newly spoiled cards will impact Standard? Are they overly optimistic? Overly pessimistic?

We are not even halfway through the Shadows over Innistrad spoiler and we have already seen some cards spike on MTGO. In particular I'm thinking about this one:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drana, Liberator of Malakir

Drana has doubled in the past few weeks due to vampire being a relevant keyword in the new set. I personally have a few copies of Drana due to some BFZ sets I've picked up. Should I short-sell into the hype and pick up my copies again later? Is the hype justified?

Similar to Drana, Risen Executioner has risen in price due to a certain tribe becoming relevant in the next set (zombies in this case). Is the new price accurate? Will a Zombie deck actually be relevant?

Finally, Avaricious Dragon has picked up some traction due to its favorable interaction with the keyword madness. Will this interaction pan out or will you just be stuck discarding all your spells when you're tapped out on turn 4?

To help answer these questions I have hand-picked the six mythics from recent sets that gained the most hype about a month prior to the release of a new set. I'll review each case to determine in which cases the hype panned out and in which cases it didn't. In doing so, I hope to gain some clarity regarding speculation on Drana, Risen Executioner, and Avaricious Dragon.

Six Historical Specs

Oblivion Sower

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oblivion Sower

Time: Prior to Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW)

Reason: Everyone was expecting Oblivion Sower to be a part of the Modern Eldrazi deck, and it showed up in many of the earlier versions. There were probably many others expecting similar good results from a Standard deck.

What Happened: Drowner of Hope ended up being the better six-drop for the Modern Eldrazi Deck, and the Standard deck opted for World Breaker instead. The online spec did not pan out.

Sire of Stagnation

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sire of Stagnation

Time: Prior to OGW

Reason: This card was supposedly going to be a great foil to the new ramp decks that would sprout up as a result of the new cards from Oath of the Gatewatch.

What Happened: Never saw much play, maybe due to its casting cost being too narrow for a sideboard card.

Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger

Time: Prior to OGW

Reason: Similar to Oblivion Sower, Ulamog was supposed to be a crucial part of the new Modern Eldrazi deck.

What Happened: Ulamog proved far too expensive for the explosive Modern Eldrazi deck, and saw no play at the Pro Tour. It still sees light play in Standard, but as a spec it was poor---its price began dropping soon after OGW released (and immediately on MTGO).

Shaman of Forgotten Ways

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shaman of Forgotten Ways

Time: Prior to Battle for Zendikar (BFZ)

Reason: The Eldrazi were coming, and this was potentially a great way to power them out quickly.

What Happened: Decks were incentivized by Shrine of the Forsaken Gods to ramp via spells like Explosive Vegetation instead. The Shaman was also more susceptible to removal and couldn't cast planeswalkers like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or Chandra, Flamecaller. Overall the spec did not work out.

Shorecrasher Elemental

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shorecrasher Elemental

Time: Prior to Magic Origins (ORI)

Reason: With Harbinger of the Tides about to be printed, there seemed to be some potential in a new Mono-Blue Devotion deck for Standard.

What Happened: The Mono-Blue Devotion deck either wasn't good enough or was never really picked up by Standard players. The price of Shorecrasher plummeted after the release of ORI.

See the Unwritten

There was an error retrieving a chart for See the Unwritten

Time: Prior to BFZ

Reason: See the Unwritten was a naturally good pair with the big Eldrazi that were set to be released in Battle for Zendikar.

What Happened: Standard Ramp decks seemed to prefer skipping over the six-drop slot in favor of World Breaker. See the Unwritten never saw the light of day, although it could have potentially been strong with Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher.

Conclusion

Predicting the new Standard metagame is freaking hard! It's a truly noble task when there are so many variables at play.

I think the safest predictions are the ones that are the least specific. This means I would be most comfortable betting on cards that can fit into a variety of decks like Ruinous Path or Den Protector, rather than cards that only fit into a very specific deck such as Risen Executioner.

Overall I am going to make the prediction that all three of the above cards (Drana, Risen Executioner, and Avaricious Dragon) will be worth less money than they are today (March 17) a few days after the Pro Tour (say April 28). I would sell if you hold any copies of these cards. Let's see how those predictions turn out!

To end, I will leave you with this quote:

"You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy. It's that simple."

- Warren Buffet

Through my very quick analysis of Standard mythic specs before Pro Tours, I noticed that the best specs were the cards that showed almost no movement before the PT and the worst specs were the cards that showed the most!

Go against the grain, and thanks for reading!

 

Song of the Week - Aural Method - Inside its Cloak the Ocean Tide Held Songs of Restless Beasts (Ambient)

Enjoy!

High Stakes MTGO – Mar 6th to Mar 12th

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Welcome back to another week of High Stakes MTGO!

Following two busy weeks, this past week saw less action especially in the sale department. Both Modern and Standard are in a sort of standby mode. Modern is patiently waiting for a another reset of the format when new ban(s) should put down the Eldrazi decks and Standard is about to experience its first Spring rotation.

Let's review what happened this past week. The snapshot of my portfolio can be found here.

Buys This Week

BFZ4

Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) full sets lost a little bit more ground and are currently priced around 60 tix. I bought one more playset and with this new price trend I'm now waiting to see how low they can go before purchasing one final round of these full sets. The absolute bottom might well occur during the release events of Shadow over Innistrad (SOI).

SM

Despite being pushed to the sideline at the moment, Snapcaster Mage still remains a powerhouse in Modern. With the end of the Eldrazis all but guaranteed, and provided the Mage dodges a reprint in Eternal Masters (EMA), Snapcaster Mage should undoubtedly be priced around 25 tix sometime later this year.

In case of a reprint in EMA I'm assuming I'll have a small profitable selling window in April. Either way, and even with only moderate profits in the short term I think this is still a solid spec---hence my new purchase of two playsets.

PiF

Past in Flames has a very unique effect and has seen play in Storm decks in Modern and Legacy, with only a minimal appearance in Modern considering the format's current situation. With the exception of a price dip last September during Innistrad flashback drafts, the floor of Past in Flames has been around 10 tix for about the last two years.

I see only upside in investing in this mythic at its floor price. As for many other of my Modern positions I expect a potential price spike during the next B&R list announcement.

Muta

The reasoning for Mutavault is about the same as for Past in Flames. I bought this manland at its long-term price floor, waiting for the next spike.

MoW

This may not turn out as a spectacular spec but with only moderate play in competitive constructed decks Master of Waves reached 14 tix in January. The recent big drop is most likely solely attributed to the end of redemption for Theros.

After the big fall a floor seemed to have been found around 8 tix, which is therefore only a reflection of the online demand. I'm taking my chances here; let's see how high this merfolk can go now.

DS

Another "Year of Modern flashback drafts" target; I could have bought it earlier though. I'm only expecting moderate profit here since I'm afraid the spread is always going to be big on this type of card. Anyway, I thought there was a chance at a little profit.

SS

Probably the biggest swinger of these past two months. Stony Silence went from ~3 tix to ~8 tix three times since January. It's back to 3 tix this past week and I couldn't resist on another round of roller coaster. Affinity will most likely remain untouched after the next B&R list changes and will still be a strong player in any Modern metagame. No reason for the demand for Stony Silence to fade away.

Sales This Week

My weekly sales of Magic Origins painlands, my first sales of Yavimaya Coast. I'm not rushing my sales with the painlands, even with the profitable ones, but every time the buying prices are high enough I liquidate a few playsets. It's going to take some time to sell them all. I still think the demand will dramatically increase after the rotation of Khans of Tarkir.

The price was stabilizing around 15 tix for three weeks. At that point I realized that the spread was indeed fairly big, almost 20%. This means that if the price of Cascade Bluffs had started to tank a bit I would have been left with pretty much zero profit even with my buying price of 10 tix. I decided to cash out my modest profit and moved on.

Even after a solid spike the spread is still a major concern with Legacy positions. We are mid-March and prices don't seem to really push higher, at least for now. I didn't want to gamble with these guys even with all the noise around Legacy, Vintage and the release of EMA.

Before the Legacy leagues and the Legacy Challenge were announced Legacy specs were not on my radar so I happily take the extra cash coming from my few Legacy investments. Force of Will is the only card left I have from that mini wave of Legacy specs.

On My Radar

What's on my radar for the next few weeks until the release of SOI is to try to time the best I can the optimal window to buy BFZ and Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) singles. Being a small set and now drafted as a two-of, OGW boosters are cracked very often, putting strong pressure on OGW single prices. I expect OGW prices to keep falling until April.

BFZ is more puzzling to me. Since the beginning of March the general trend has been on the decline for BFZ full sets. However a few singles I'm considering buying, including Drana, Liberator of Malakir, Shambling Vent, Prairie Stream and Cinder Glade, haven't really followed the full set trend and are actually up.

Did I miss the absolute bottom on these singles? Or is it only temporary? I'm inclined to believe that with the global trend being down these singles will eventually catch up to the declining trend, with a bottom to be found around the release events of SOI.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Investigating Post-Khans Manabases

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Renowned deck builder and Hall of Famer Zvi Mowshowitz will tell you time and again that in order to build good decks, you must start with the mana. Look at the lands and mana creatures available, and then determine what kind of spells you want to play. Ultimately, your ability to play the game hinges on your mana development.

An easy enough concept, though one that was easy to forget with fetch/battle manabases. With rotation, there simple won't be much in the way of mana fixing.

With the release of Shadows over Innistrad we're going to have these and a full set of enters-the-battlefield-tapped duals, in addition to some scattered oddballs, like an ally land and a couple dragon ones. The dragon ones are interesting, though for the most part mana won't be exceptional going forward, barring additional fixing in Shadows.

Bad news on that front.

The name and number crunch doesn't leave enough lands for a full five card cycle. This could mean that we get the first part of an incomplete cycle, or it could mean that we just get a few utility lands.

Either way, we should be getting ready to play two-color decks where the allied pairs get eight duals and the enemy decks get 12---assuming you're willing to play those EtB tapped lands. You can fill out some slots with Evolving Wilds as well, though again, that's just more tapped lands.

There's a lot of subtext to this fact. Suddenly, I don't know that I want to play a Reflector Mage deck. Can I even build a decent manabase for a Bant Collected Company deck? It's not looking great.

One thing that I really want to know is whether we'll get another black-red land. As of now, I'm really excited about Rakdos Vampire Madness, though it's looking like the deck will have significant manabase frustrations. The deck has a couple relevant one-drops, some strong two-drops, great three-drops, and might be relegated to playing eight tapped lands.

The spells appear good enough to make a competitive deck even with awkward mana, but something that I'm looking out for is whether one or two decks will get an extra dual land. For example, a vampire land along the lines of Gilt-Leaf Palace would go a huge way in making this deck exceptional.

If you invested in Drana like I advocated last week then you're already able to buylist copies for more than you spent on them, though the future of the card's price is contingent on success. I think Drana is a strong hold with such a land, and is possibly a sell without.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gilt-Leaf Palace

In the meantime, investment in the existing Standard lands, while a good idea before, is now a more pressing matter. Many players were expecting something better in Shadows, and it's looking like that's not happening. While it's entirely possible that more mono-colored decks take off, there looks to be a plenty of cross-colored synergies and strong gold cards to keep players in two-color decks.

This isn't Theros---we don't have spells that offer incentive to play one color or lands like Mutavault and Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx. There are some solid utility lands, but I still want to play Gideon and I don't want to play mono-white.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

The long and short of the above is that if you don't buy lands now, you will pay more for them later. If you pick the color pairs that end up seeing the most play, then you stand to make solid gains off of these lands.

Shivan Reef has been creeping up, though no similar gains have been made on Wandering Fumarole---easily the best creature land currently in Standard, and in a color pair that gives you access to Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and Chandra, Flamecaller. The card can be had for $2-3 for now; I expect to see it hit $8-10 in relatively short order.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wandering Fumarole

A card that I'm more interested in now that we know that mana will be a little rough is Oath of Nissa. I maintain that Nissa plus Gideon is a winning curve, and Oath of Nissa helps you curve GG into WW on three to four despite a somewhat weak manabase. In a perfect world, I'd like to curve this into Chandra, Flamecaller. That might not be possible, but if it is, Oath of Nissa definitely helps make it so, and you probably just want it even in a straight Selesnya deck.

The buy price is about $2 right now, and this card has all the makings of a $5+ Standard staple. Nissa into the new red-green planeswalker, Arlinn Kord, is comparably exciting. That fits in a shell that easily supports Chandra, and wants Nissa's Oath just the same.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Oath of Nissa

As far as Shadows spoilers go, there is a ton of hype around this set. There are cards that I would pay the pre-order price for to play, though there's nothing that really jumps out as a sleeper. There is one card that I'm watching though, and it could end up being quite good:

rattlechains

On its face, this card is looking for spirits to protect, and right now your only playable option is Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit. A WW spell in a format with bad mana. I'm not too keen on a spirit deck just yet. What I am more interested in, is a flash deck.

Pepper in some counterspells and a bounce spell or two, and you got yourself a stew going! That's a lot of flash creatures, many of which have evasion, which makes dealing with opposing planeswalkers trivial in many situations. Not to mention that with the proper tempo support and a little luck with Collected Company a Simic flash deck could present a real clock.

There's still a lot to see out of Shadows, though with enemy mana being better than allied mana and Collected Company still being in Standard this could be a great deck.

And maybe the Anafenza thing isn't necessarily great, but an Azorius shell with some flash creatures isn't out of the question either. Flashing in a blocker makes flipping Avacyn rather simple, after all.

Still the best card in the set.
Still the best card in the set.

In sum, mana is bad, if you went deep on Drana lock in some value now, buy lands now, Avacyn is the best, and I'm still looking for sleepers. Watch for spirits, watch for lands.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Virtually Infinite – Finding Value in Gateway Legacy Decks

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This is the third in a series of articles aimed at preparing the player, collector, and speculator for the arrival of Eternal Masters (EMA).

Last week we discussed why the future of Legacy on Magic Online is bright, even if it is dim in paper, but noted that there were not a lot of great buying opportunities at the moment. We refined our “watch list” of cards you should not be holding, and discussed how Eternal Masters would create demand for whichever Legacy staples are not reprinted.

Today we are going to make some predictions about which cards are good bets to pick up in the coming weeks. The first set of cards we’ll be looking for are the gatekeeper cards to the format’s gateway decks.

Opal Lake Gatekeepers

Gateway Decks

A “gateway deck” is any cheap but competitive deck that allows players to try a new format. A classic gateway deck is Burn or Red Aggro---it is often a tier 1 or tier 1.5 deck at a fraction of the cost of the decks it beats.

Gateway decks tend to be very popular on MTGO. Compared to paper, there are fewer players with large standing digital collections. When these players want to try a new format they will often start by acquiring the format’s cheapest deck. This is especially true when a high-EV tournament is announced (like the Legacy Challenge).

When they do decide to acquire an MTGO deck, players are often surprised and excited to learn how cheap the staple commons and uncommons are on Magic Online. Most of the cards in a gateway deck cost pennies and it’s cheap and convenient to fire up a wishlist and get 95% of the deck for a bargain price.

But all gateway decks contain a few expensive cards. To play the tier 1 version of these decks you can’t avoid them. Ironically, these "gatekeeper" cards are in especially high demand because the rest of the deck is so cheap. It’s part of the deal: you pay the toll and purchase eight expensive cards to pass through the gate and unlock your 67 bargain cards.

One of the key principles to Magic finance is to target cards that are scarce and are “must haves” in cheap decks. This is especially true on Magic Online. The paper economy is much flatter---virtually every playable card is worth something, whereas the Magic Online economy is highly polarized. A half dozen gatekeeper cards can cost more than the rest of the deck combined.

Legacy’s Gatekeeper Cards

In Legacy, there are a handful of decks that can be acquired for under 300 tix. That’s a bargain compared to their paper counterparts---and even compared to Standard and Modern decks. Each gateway deck contains a couple key gatekeeper cards that we’ll examine.

Dredge

Dredge has proven an enduring strategy in Legacy. It has a stellar game one and can still put up top finishes despite all the sideboard hate. Playing the deck is an acquired taste that is not for everyone. But one of the main attractions is that it’s super cheap.

Dredge, 6-1 finish at the MTGO Legacy Challenge: (316 tix)

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As you can see, almost all the value in Dredge is locked up in four cards: Lion's Eye Diamond, Cabal Therapy, Gemstone Mine, and Golgari Grave-Troll. These four cards account for $220 of the $314 price.

These four cards constitute the gatekeepers to Legacy Dredge. You might find a substitute for Gemstone Mine but all the others are essential.

The price is still attractive, and the arrival of EMA should make this deck even more accessible. I expect to see reprints of several key cards, especially if there is a black archetype focused on the graveyard. Golgari Grave-Troll seems a likely inclusion. Cabal Therapy and Gemstone Mine also seem possible.

All else equal, the inclusion of several cards should drop the cost of a Dredge deck to under 250 tix. As people start to pick up the deck, value will start accruing in the other cards in the deck that weren’t reprinted.

Is there a play for the savvy speculator? Two cards we can be sure will not be in EMA are Lion’s Eye Diamond and Firestorm (which is used in many Dredge sideboards), since both are on the Reserved List. They are relatively scarce on MTGO. Firestorm has a single printing and sits at 16 tix despite little play. LED was printed in a light set but there are more copies since it has a promo and was printed in Vintage Masters (VMA), but at mythic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lion's Eye Diamond

These are our targets for this deck. LED has the additional benefit of having a home in several other Legacy decks. It sits right now at 21-24 tix, but I could see it hitting double or even triple that this summer. I don't see another promo of LED as likely, so the only new supply would have to come from VMA or Mirage (MIR) block flashbacks.

There is no particular rush in picking up LED and Firestorm. Sealed Leagues continue to suck tix out of the MTGO economy and put downward pressure on singles. Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) release events should provide a particularly good window for cheap purchase of these cards (and of others below). Note that the VMA version of LED is significantly cheaper than the MIR version.

Burn

Burn has been leveling the playing field since the mid-90's, when players dialed in by modem to read tournament reports on The Dojo.

The Magic Dojo

Burn is easy to learn but difficult to master, and in the hands of a skilled pilot it is a force to be reckoned with.

Burn is not only cheap (under 200 tix) but has the added benefit that most cards do double service in Modern. This makes it an ideal candidate for players making the shift to Legacy.

The main gatekeeper cards are the fetchlands, Ensnaring Bridge and Eidolon of the Great Revel. Some versions play Blood Moon as well, which adds 100 tix in cost for a playset.

Burn deck that recently won an SCG IQ (192 tix)

Burn deck that recently won an SCG IQ
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What’s the play? I think Eidolon makes a good pickup here. It’s played across multiple formats and is relatively cheap compared to its potential peak. It’s from a recent set so a reprinting in EMA seems highly unlikely. It's a strong pickup regardless of the future of Legacy.

Some versions also include Ensnaring Bridge. This can be an attractive target since its inclusion in EMA seems unlikely---it is a miserable card in Limited formats and is Modern-legal. It is on fire right now because it’s a pillar in the Lantern of Insight deck and other anti-Eldrazi strategies.

That said, I don’t feel comfortable recommending a card at its all-time high. I would wait until the Eldrazi bannings are announced for the price to fall and then snag a playset or two.

The Zendikar fetchlands are tricky. They were named by the EMA source and these rumors have brought them down to an attractive price. The contrarian play is to pick them up, but I don't plan to touch them even at current prices. Fortunately you can play most Burn decks using mostly allied fetchlands.

Ad Nauseam Tendrils Storm

This one is a rung up the price ladder (553 tix), and constitutes 5% of the format.

Storm deck played to a money finish at SCG Philadelphia (553 tix)

As played to a money finish at SCG Philadelphia. 553 tix
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While this is just a guess, I expect Storm to be a Limited archetype within EMA. If so, Lotus Petal, Cabal Therapy, Gitaxian Probe, and Infernal Tutor could all be included. If the deck drops in price, Lion’s Eye Diamond could be the last gatekeeper standing, so to speak. The fact that it figures in other decks as well makes it an attractive target.

Infernal Tutor at 43 tix is a classic gatekeeper card. The problem with this as a spec target is that there is significant reprint risk. If the set list comes out and this is missing, jump on it immediately.

Elves

Elves is a hybrid aggro/combo deck that is challenging to learn. There are a couple different versions. Like any infinite or near-infinite combo deck, it can be a pain to go through the motions on MTGO, which may limit its growth. On the other hand, it is a creature deck with interactivity, which has appeal. It’s the first Legacy deck I built on MTGO years ago, and others may take a similar path.

Version of Elves that took 4th place in an SCG IQ in Lexington (555 tix)

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Click to Enlarge

Right now, 30% of the deck’s value is centered in the playset of Gaea's Cradle. These gained in price as soon as EMA was announced, and have room for more gains as the format grows. I expect Elves to be one of the Limited archetypes playable in EMA, which could make the deck even cheaper.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Cradle

That said, I would wait for SOI release events to pick up my Cradles. Note that if you are looking for playsets the promo versions are 5 tix cheaper than the Urza's Saga versions.

Bayou (5 tix) and Savannah (3 tix) can also make an appearance in Elves decks, and have not moved much compared to the blue dual lands. They will see additional growth if green decks, including Elves, make a comeback in Legacy. They are super cheap and should safely experience double-digit growth, but don't expect them to break 10 tix in the next six months.

Summary of Targets

The best time to target these should be during Shadows over Innistrad release. As always, these specs must be weighed against other opportunities in the market. They will be a 3-6 month spec, and there may be better short-run plays. But keep an eye on these and pick them up when you can, since the drivers for mid- to long-term growth are there:

  • Lion's Eye Diamond
  • Firestorm
  • Gaea's Cradle
  • Bayou
  • Savannah
  • Eidolon of the Great Revel
  • Ensnaring Bridge (after Eldrazi bannings)

Finally, if you want to bet against a reprint or make a quick flip this is a good week to pick up Golgari Grave-Troll, which is down to 8 tix because of Ravnica flashback drafts.

Make sure to enjoy Legacy leagues and the year of Modern flashbacks! One great resource at our disposal is the Limited Resources draft primer---they've been compiling one for each set, and it gives you a huge headstart if you're unfamiliar with the format!

-Alexander Carl
@thoughtlaced and Thoughtlaced on MTGO

Shadows Over Innistrad Spoilers and Set Release History!

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With Shadows Over Innistrad on the horizon, we’ve come back to that time of year: when half of us are jaded and the other (more sadistic) half are busy reveling in other players’ misery. Through the suffocating darkness, a bright light shines from the heavens, promising the change we need. No, this isn’t Obama in ’08. It’s spoiler season. Welcome to my Shadows Over Innistrad preview discussion.

Declaration in Stone Art

Recently, spoiler season for Modern has been more lackluster than usual. We all know by now that all sets are designed to focus primarily on Standard and Draft/Sealed, with Modern not even deemed important enough to be tested by the Future Future League. This doesn’t mean Wizards cares nothing for Modern, as we often get goodies designed specifically for the impact they’ll have on Modern. What this does mean is that our Christmas gifts can range from Moldy Toast all the way to Golden Lavatory (the best Christmas present possible, if you ask me).

With 72 of 297 cards currently spoiled as of this writing, and the recent Modern disappointments of Eldrazi fresh in mind, I thought it would be interesting to take a look back at recent set releases for the impact they have had on Modern. We’ll discuss new cards, of course, but as CONTEXT kinda is my shtick I found myself just giddy with excitement at the possibility of evaluating past precedents to inform future decisions. I know you are too. So, without further ado, let’s jump in!

(If you just want to read spoiler discussion, CTRL + F “New Spoilers”)

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History

In the past (almost) five years, Wizards of the Coast has bestowed upon us 18 sets of Magic cards for our delirious consumption. In that time, these things happened:

To be honest, most of that terrified me, which is why I (and many other players) disassociate those events from a specific point and time and instead subconsciously denote the passing of time in Magic sets. Can you tell me what year Michael Jackson died without looking? I can’t, but I can tell you it was before Zendikar). DING! 2009. My mental clock knows no equal.

What does this have to do with spoiler discussion? For me, new sets (like New Year’s) cause me to reminisce, for better or for worse. Five years ago, Innistrad came out. Five years ago, everything I thought a Magic set could be was transformed forever. Five years ago, I stopped holding Mirrodin Beseiged cards in my hand, softly muttering “why” and rose up to face a new day with hope in my heart. We begin where we end, with Innistrad.

Innistrad

Liliana of the VeilSlam-Dunks

  • Liliana of the Veil
  • Snapcaster Mage
  • Stony Silence
  • Delver of Secrets
  • Gavony Township

Role Players

  • Past in Flames
  • Heartless Summoning
  • Ancient Grudge

Innistrad is, in my mind, the best Magic set ever created. Not much of a Limited player myself, even I could not resist its charms, and Innistrad Limited beckoned to me from the doorway like Jessica Alba covered in chocolate cake. I distinctly remember looking over the spoiler, fresh from New Phyrexia's hyper-aggression, and remarking to my dad “This set sucks!”. No Ponder. No Doom Blade. Instead, we got Think Twice and Tragic Slip. Who knew Forbidden Alchemy and Unburial Rites would run Standard, and Liliana of the Veil and Snapcaster Mage would grow up to be the BEST individual cards in their respective colors five years later?

Grade: A+

Dark Ascension

Lingering SoulsSlam-Dunks

  • Lingering Souls
  • Huntmaster of the Fells
  • Thought Scour

Role Players

  • Gravecrawler
  • Strangleroot Geist
  • Thalia, Guardian of Thraben

Dark Ascension improved upon an excellent Limited and Standard format, introducing Zombies and giving Solar Flare an incredible value card in the form of Lingering Souls. Oh, the days where you could Forbidden Alchemy into Lingering Souls/Unburial Rites into Sun Titan… All the cards in this list have seen varying amounts of play in Modern from time to time, with Thought Scour in particular going from unplayable to Dark Ritual thanks to delve (don’t worry, we’ll get there).

Grade: B

Avacyn Restored

Restoration AngelSlam-Dunks

  • Griselbrand
  • Craterhoof Behemoth
  • Restoration Angel

Role-Players

  • Terminus
  • Bonfire of the Damned
  • Desolate Lighthouse

Avacyn Restored gets a bad reputation for its non-interactive Limited format, but is still in my mind an under-appreciated set. Griselbrand has been at the fringes of Modern for a while now with Grishoalbrand, and Elves players can fondly remember ramping into Craterhoof Behemoth before Collected Company was printed. Restoration Angel has been everywhere, from Twin to Control to Hoogland Special Naya. Terminus and Bonfire of the Damned popped up here and there in control and Burn lists respectively, but never caught on. Bonfire lost Brian Kibler and Team USA a World Magic Cup. Miracles as a mechanic really took off in Standard and Legacy, but not in Modern. Standard being slow and durdly allowed swingy effects like Bonfire of the Damned to take over, and Legacy’s library manipulation meant setting up Miracle flips was a breeze. Modern was both too fast and too inconsistent to employ these effects, though some decks still tried to play Bonfire to small success.

Grade: C+

Magic 2013

Slam-Dunks

  • Master of the Pearl Trident

Role Players

  • Faith's Reward

Oh, Thragtusk, how the world has forgotten you. This set was awesome for Standard (Talrand, Sky Summoner for Delver decks and Flinthoof Boar for R/G!) but poor for Modern. Gone are the days of sets with 50% reprints, and for good reason. There’s really nothing to talk about here other than more reminiscing about Standard, and nobody wants to hear about Thragtusk into Restoration Angel into… oh crap I’m doing it.

Grade: F

Return to Ravnica

Deathrite ShamanSlam-Dunks

  • Abrupt Decay
  • Supreme Verdict
  • Deathrite Shaman
  • Loxodon Smiter
  • Goblin Electromancer
  • Shockland reprints

Role Players

  • Slaughter Games
  • Izzet Staticaster
  • Sphinx's Revelation
  • Epic Experiment

Ah, that’s better! Pushed multi-colored spells are naturally excellent in a fetch/shock manabase, and Jund took Deathrite Shaman and Abrupt Decay to town, punishing Wizards for their naivety. Control got some great tools as well, and G/W received some more Wilt-Leaf Liege goodness in the form of Loxodon Smiter. Take that, Liliana of the Veil!

Grade: A

Gatecrash

Boros CharmSlam-Dunks

  • Boros Charm

Role Players

  • Borborygmos Enraged
  • Domri Rade
  • Legion Loyalist

With High Priest of Penance never panning out, Gatecrash goes down in history as the set that had promise, but barely delivered. Burn gained Boros Charm (one of the best burn spells ever printed) but besides that, Goblin players and Stompy players can attest to the failures of Gatecrash’s Charms.

Grade: D

Dragon’s Maze

Slam-Dunks

  • Voice of Resurgence

Role Players

  • Wear // Tear

Beck // Call didn’t pan out, and were it not for Voice of Resurgence Maze would be right up with Core Sets for the “Useless for Modern” title. Still, Voice continues to be one of the best answers to blue in the format, and it will be interesting to see how its stock shifts in a post Twin/Eldrazi metagame.

Grade: D-

Magic 2014

Role Players

  • Young Pyromancer

M14 continues the Core Set/Poor Modern Set theme, with only one card of note to offer. Of note are a bunch of great reprints for Modern (Ratchet Bomb, Mutavault) but where are the NEW CARDS!?!

Grade: F

Theros

Master of WavesSlam-Dunks

  • Master of Waves
  • Destructive Revelry
  • Anger of the Gods

Role Players

  • Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver
  • Sylvan Caryatid
  • Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
  • Scrylands

Fitting that the set about gods would be classified as “redemptive”. Theros brought Master of Waves to Merfolk, and Sylvan Caryatid to mana-greedy decks everywhere, from Loam to Ascendancy. The scrylands, while initially panned, have become recognized as in the running for top 5 land cycles ever (albeit a bit slow).

Grade: A-

Born of the Gods

Role Players

  • Courser of Kruphix

And that's all there is to say on that.

Grade: D

Journey into Nyx

Eidolon of the Great RevelSlam-Dunks

  • Keranos, God of Storms
  • Eidolon of the Great Revel

Role Players

  • Eidolon of Rhetoric

Journey Into Nyx cane close to failing, but Eidolon of the Great Revel is, in my mind, the best red card in Modern behind Goblin Guide and Lightning Bolt. At this point you have to reflect on the fact that three color defining cards (Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil included) have been printed in the last five years. While new sets rarely contain more than three or four cards eligible for Modern play, that doesn’t make those sets “bad sets” for Modern.

Grade: B-

Magic 2015

That being said, M15 sucked. Go home, Wizards, and think about what you’ve done.

Khans of Tarkir

Dig Through TimeSlam-Dunks

  • Onslaught Fetches
  • Siege Rhino
  • Monastery Swiftspear
  • Become Immense
  • Dig Through Time
  • Treasure Cruise
  • Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Role Players

  • Crackling Doom
  • Anafenza, the Foremost
  • Jeskai Ascendancy
  • Feed the Clan
  • Deflecting Palm

So, we get it. Delve is busted. Even without Dig and Cruise, Khans would still get an A. Burn gaining Monastery Swiftspear, Abzan playing four drops like it’s Standard or something, and a bunch of sideboard stuff both for Burn and against Burn. We’ve even got a Storm offshoot archetype enabler! Khans of Tarkir was awesome for both Standard and Modern, and the fourth solid fall-set in a row for Wizards (and believe me, they took notice). While I can’t find the reference now, you can believe that the success and hype around fall sets was a major factor in the shift away from Core Sets towards two set blocks. What’s better than one fall set a year? TWO fall sets a year!

Grade: A+

Fate Reforged

TasigurSlam-Dunks

  • Tasigur, the Golden Fang
  • Ugin, the Spirit Dragon

Role Players

  • Monastery Mentor
  • Outpost Siege
  • Temur Battle Rage

While I will always hate Fate Reforged for giving Tron Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, I will always be indebted to it for giving me Tasigur, the Golden Fang. (How can you be indebted to an inanimate object? It’s not even an object, just a set release…) Anyway, Fate Reforged gave us a back to back excellent set for Modern, and *possibly* spoiled us for what to expect from Wizards moving forward. After all, Delve ended up being way more powerful than they expected, but these sets would still be great for Modern had delve not been a mechanic. Even Suicide Zoo got some love!

Grade: B+

Dragons of Tarkir

Atarkas CommandSlam-Dunks

  • Collected Company
  • Kolaghan's Command
  • Atarka's Command

Role Players

  • Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit
  • Rending Volley
  • Roast

Another great set, this time brought about by the Command cycle. Similar to Return to Ravnica, placing multiple options on pushed, multi-colored instant speed spells is a recipe for success that Wizards should cook up more often. Kolaghan's Command and Tasigur, the Golden Fang sponsored three whole new archetypes by themselves, and I miss those days dearly. How much greener the grass was back then...

Rending Volley will probably see no play now that Twin is gone, but should combo players move up to Kiki Jiki, Mirror-Breaker then Rending Volley is still a great answer to Restoration Angel or Deceiver Exarch. Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit is flying a little under the radar now, but if Abzan Company remains a force to be reckoned with post Eldrazi-ban this chick could be around for a while.

Grade: A

Magic Origins

Jace ProdigySlam-Dunks

  • Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
  • Pia and Kiran Nalaar
  • Harbinger of the Tides

Role Players

  • Shaman of the Pack
  • Abbott of Keral Keep

Magic Origins bucks the Core Set trend in terms of Modern playability, but then again, Magic Origins really isn’t a core set, but rather a Fall set with flipwalkers as the main selling mechanic. Anyone unfamiliar with my long-standing opinion on Jace, Vryn's Prodigy can brush up now! This card is nuts and alone would earn Origins a B-. Throw in some tribal love and all-around value and you’ve got a solid set for Modern. Wizards has succeeded in making Magic about creatures, now please, give us more creatures that cost less than five!

Grade: A-

I won’t go over Battle for Zendikar or Oath of the Gatewatch (too soon, too soon…) but I shouldn’t really have to. We’re keeping things positive and looking back, looking ahead, anywhere other than the fire that’s burning around us.

c4jt321

So, now that we've taken that exhausting brief journey through history, hopefully we have a clearer idea of what to expect with Shadows Over Innistrad. Wizards has shown that they can print sets that straight up invigorate Modern, but they can also print absolute stinkers. Personally, I consider a set a "success" for Modern if it contains around four cards that see Modern play, with two of them being something we could realistically maindeck. Eidolon of Rhetoric doesn't count as an "exciting" new card for Modern, but something like Rending Volley is, in my mind. We don't need a Voice of Resurgence/Eidolon of the Great Revel type staple every set, but something to get us excited would be nice. Enough history talk, let’s get to the new cards spoiled so far!

New Spoilers!

Hey! Scroll back up and read the whole article! I didn’t write 2000 words for you to skim through for the relevant information! You should know by now there is no relevant information. You disappoint me.

Nahiri, the Harbinger

If her -2 was just Lightning Helix, I’d be happier, but we already have that with Ajani Vengeant and he 1_nahirisees barely any play. The fact that she not only doesn’t do anything to protect herself AND doesn’t really do anything to get us ahead without jumping through hoops is not good news. Better cards have seen *no play* in Modern (again, looking at Ajani Vengeant) that I’m not positive about Nahiri’s chances here. Still, the +2 discards stranded Blightsteel Colossus' that the -8 can then go fetch, so maybe some Mardu control deck uses this as a value card to find more answers, handle some problematic permanents, and kill the opponent eventually? A deck like that doesn’t really exist, unless you count the Mardu Control deck floating around since the last Pro Tour. A strong metagame shift would have to happen to make Mardu playable, and THEN we would need a reason to play this over Ajani Vengeant. Pass.

Arlinn Kord

As she’s a planeswalker that costs less than five, I guess she has to be discussed, but I’m not wildly impressed. Were her starting loyalty four, meaning should could flip and survive Lightning Bolt, then I might be more excited, but as it 1_arlinnis she’s a more flashy Huntmaster of the Fells. I could see her in a planeswalker heavy Jund build (some list that plays Chandra, Pyromaster as well) and she seems strong if we have a Tarmogoyf on the field to block. Giving our ‘Goyf vigilance and +2/+2, along with haste to future creatures puts us in an aggressive route, and I’m starting to like the synergies between a creature on board, Arlinn Kord to pump, and Chandra, Pyromaster to falter a blocker, leaving our attacker with vigilance on protection duty next turn. Color me interested.

Declaration in Stone

1_declarationFor mono white decks looking for better removal, this seems like a slight upgrade to Dismember? I imagine the deck would have to be aggressive, as you want to be up-tempo to make the Clue awkward to activate. The fact that it removes ANY creature no questions asked is excellent, and though it costs two mana giving them a Clue can be better than putting a basic land onto the field. The fact that it costs two makes it worse than Path to Exile, obviously, and were it to cost one I think it would be second only to Swords to Plowshares (though being a sorcery hurts it). This one might not make it in Modern, but I think that is due more to archetypes and current options than raw power level. Keep an eye on this one.

Thing in the Ice

Finally, we come to this interesting number. A 0/4 that we can expect to flip on average in about 2.0-2.5 turns (if 1_thingwe play it turn two) piques my curiosity, but only because it’s a two-drop in blue. Thing coming down across from Tarmogoyf is doing nothing for at least a full hit, and then we have Terminate to worry about. Were it an 0/5, this would  be an easier card to evaluate, but 0/4 is a little too small for what we would need it to do (block Tarmogoyf). That it blocks everything else isn’t enough. If we aren’t casting Mana Leak or Jace, Vryn's Prodigy we'd better be doing something good.

“Normal” blue decks aren’t interested in attacking, usually, so the 7/8 success state is more “cute” than an actual strategy we can expect to be playing to. But, here we have its bounce ability making things complicated. Flipping this thing by casting do nothing Serum Visions and the like to bounce our opponent’s whole board is a big game, and could buy us the time we need to do more of the durdly stuff we were doing that got us in that position in the first place. So, basically, a blue player’s dream. That’s the success state, where the failstate is just an 0/4 that everyone on the row laughs at. I’ve got to say, even though it’s probably bad, a classic U/R Twinless Twin with this guy to make our opponent nervous sounds fun for a weekend…

I’ll leave the rest to you. We’re barely into Shadows Over Innistrad spoilers, but we now have a better idea of what to look for and what to expect from a Magic Set for Modern in 2016. Next week, or possibly the week after we’ll hopefully have some juicy stuff to discuss, and I’m crossing my fingers for a Snapcaster Mage or Liliana of the Veil reprint (as either of those cards will get me back into Standard).

Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next week!

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

Insider: Top 10 Rotation Pick-Ups

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I started writing this article a couple weeks ago just to get my thoughts brewing on this topic. At that time, I was set to tout Chandra, Flamecaller as one of the best cards to invest in.

Within my schedule, I’ve had plenty of time to watch Magic videos and noted that a couple players were having success with her as their finisher. Notably Caleb Durward qualified for the Pro Tour at a Regional PTQ with Mardu Green running two copies maindeck.

Unfortunately, you all know she doubled her value around that time, but I still think she will be great in the new format. You can compare her to Elspeth, Sun's Champion because if you play her on an open board, it becomes difficult to lose that game.

Never fear though, I have plenty of other great cards for you to put your post-rotation faith in!

Honorable Mention

Colorless Lands

First up, I wanted to mention some colorless lands. With players needing to produce colorless mana but not needing to play actual Wastes, the stock of cards on this list should drastically increase. The problem with these lands is that most of them are uncommons, so they aren’t likely to accumulate much value.

A rare colorless land from Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) could generate a nice price tag. But for now, these are the cards I’d be looking to at least have a play set of to use or possibly trade.

Nissa, Vastwood Seer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Vastwood Seer

We know Nissa is great. I think she might compete with the other version of herself for a spot in some decks though. With both cards costing the same amount of mana, it’s likely that a deck would only play one or the other.

You can have them in play at the same time as long as Vastwood Seer doesn’t flip though, so keep that in mind for deck construction. Ramp strategies might want to include her, as a possible elf deck might. I don’t think there are elves on Innistrad, but if they make an appearance, the green-black elf deck could come together.

Overall, I think a lot of things would have to go in her favor for Nissa to increase in value. Her Voice of Zendikar version seems more likely to double once she finds a home in the new format, especially if she’s in a tier one deck.

The Picks

10. Thunderbreak Regent

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunderbreak Regent

First up, we have Thunderbreak Regent. One of the best archetypes in Standard at various times have been dragon-based decks. Of these decks, one of the most brutal was the combination of Thunderbreak Regent and Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury to enable Draconic Roar.

That combination is still viable but may be paired with another color since that version of Kolaghan is rotating out of the format. We will see how the metagame shapes up, but the price memory for this dragon is $10. We could see this flyer approach that number again if the format shapes itself towards dragons.

9. Dragon Whisperer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragon Whisperer

Since this bear was spoiled, it has been on my radar. With the nature of Atarka Red decks, they weren’t looking for a solid creature like this, but in the new format you may find that whispering to dragons is a powerful thing to be doing.

Humans were a supported tribe the last time around too so that creature type might matter once again. It seems that Wizards is pushing the tribes of Innistrad a little harder this time, but we won’t know that for certain until we see the full spoiler in a couple weeks. Until then, this is another cheap target that should be easy to acquire.

For a two-mana creature, Whisperer has a ton of abilities. What I like best is that it’s fine as a two-mana 2/2, but for a one-mana investment, it gains evasion. Then, if you have extra mana you aren’t using, it becomes a great mana sink.

Finally, having your aggressive creature be a solid late-game draw is quite a boon. If you ever activate the formidable ability to put a 4/4 dragon into play, there is a high likelihood that you will be winning that game. You can even make a dragon every turn until your opponent is defeated!

There are play sets available for $6. What do you have to lose?

8. Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gideon, Ally of Zendikar

We all know Gideon, Ally of Zendikar is a powerhouse planeswalker in the same class as the top tier white planeswalkers. Based on how much time he’s spent in the spotlight already, Gideon is more like the ally of everyone. He’s not done yet though.

His current sticker price of $16 seems like the bottom for this highly successful defender of Zendikar. Despite the fact that this member of the Gatewatch has kept a healthy value so far, as a probable pillar of the new and promising Standard format, it seems likely that he will go back up toward the $25 range.

If you don’t have your Gideons yet, now seems like the best opportunity to get in before the new archetypes are established.

7. Exquisite Firecraft

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In a world where five-toughness creatures are extinct, Exquisite Firecraft is king. Post-rotation, this burn spell is shaping up to be a big hitter. Between killing the large creatures of the format and getting flashed back with Goblin Dark-Dwellers, Firecraft is poised to grow in a big way.

Its current price tag is small enough that picking up an extra play set or two wouldn’t be a big deal, but the reward could be great. At close to $2 each, we won’t see this burn spell any cheaper than right now. This should be a $5 card for sure so don’t miss out on this easy pick up.

6. Matter Reshaper

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It was my goal to put one of the cheap Eldrazi onto this list because I think all of these cards are great investments. Presumably after the Modern ban, these cards will drop even further in value, but Matter Reshaper is near the bottom of its valley.

The reason I love this guy as an investment is because I think he would be great in a variety of strategies. We’ve seen him in Collected Company decks, which look poised to be the front runner for best deck in the new format, but he’s also shown up in places like ramp and other aggro decks as well. As a 3/2 that replaces itself, many decks will be looking to play this guy.

Think of him alongside Hangarback Walker. Every deck could theoretically play both of those two creatures and then whatever other cards they wanted. With good removal like Utter End leaving the format, players will have to rely even more on their white cards like Silkwrap and Stasis Snare to stop an opponent from gaining too much value.

You don’t get much more value out of your guys than Matter Reshaper’s ability, so get your copies while they’re at their lowest point. This little Eldrazi is hovering around $2, but I expect that to change quickly once players stop opening Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) and switch their focus to SOI.

One possible financial aspect to consider is that players may go back to hunting for Expeditions in Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) and OGW. We haven’t seen this much before. It happened a little with Khans of Tarkir when players were revved up for opening fetches and foil fetches.

Once players have gotten what they need from our new Innistrad installment, I think it’s a real possibility that we see more of the Zendikar sets being opened than a normal set would. Keep this possibility in mind for your financial endeavors.

5. Abbot of Keral Keep

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The more time passes, the more I grow to love Abbot of Keral Keep. With this red creature, we have a card that is playable in multiple formats but hasn’t broken out yet. Just from Standard alone, Abbot has seen play in multiple archetypes and I suspect that will continue post-rotation.

This card advantage generator is fine on turn two if you have no other plays, turn three to hit your land drop, or any point after that to get a free extra card. We all knew this was good, but expect it to see even more play in the new format. Many of these Magic Origins (ORI) cards are a great investment, and Abbot definitely fits the bill.

4. Drana, Liberator of Malakir

There was an error retrieving a chart for Drana, Liberator of Malakir

Drana, Liberator of Malakir fits into two important tribes: vampire and ally. At this point, since there is no working allies deck, that bet seems unlikely to pay off, but the vampire tribe could make her an all-star.

Throughout her time in Standard so far, I have played this flyer a lot. Her nemesis was clearly the overpowered Mantis Rider. Without that vigilance flyer in the skies, Drana will be the queen above them all. She was always a must-kill threat. Similar to Steel Overseer in Affinity, if you get one activation that is typically devastating to your opponent.

Since her release, I have had Drana priced at or above the TCG Mid price point. Currently her price tag reads $8 and my store credit buy price has been $6 for a while now. Despite these numbers, which according to Trader Tools matches the highest current buy price, players don’t want to trade in the card at that price.

She has been a popular card in our metagame and players in my area know how amazing she is based on in-game experiences. One player in particular has been tweaking the Hardened Scales deck with Abzan colors just to fit Drana into the deck.

Drana is a great investment right now. Her spread as well as the sales record I’ve had for her is good evidence to support a seemingly inevitable price increase. The lynch pin for me is that her vampire creature type seems like it will be quite valuable when paired with the new cards.

3. Liliana, Heretical Healer

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One thing I learned from ORI is that the flavor of the flip planewalkers translated into positive sales for that card type. I think this will also follow to Arlinn Kord, the werewolf planeswalker, as well as the other playable flip cards.

Now that players are used to the idea of double-faced cards, they have become a novel, popular type of card. Players think they are neat, which means less casual players sell them, which translates into higher price averages.

This concept is most highlighted for me with Nissa, Vastwood Seer and Liliana, Heretical Healer. These two cards are other examples of cards I’ve priced especially high just to keep them in stock. My buy prices on these two cards have also been excessively high.

What sets them apart is certainly the archetypes they fit into. Liliana is a bit more likely to fit into any deck with black mana, but I think there is a good possibility there will be a new sacrifice deck which make her a necessity rather than a fringe card. If she is already $15, imagine if she were seeing play as a four-of like Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. If that happens, her price will definitely go way up.

There’s no gimmick driving sales for ORI, yet it is still the most valuable set in Standard. You might say that the flip planeswalkers drove the sales and that is true up until there were Expeditions to dream about, but that hype was short lived. In terms of luck in opening packs, it’s more likely that you win the Jace lottery than the Expedition lottery. Players haven’t been thinking like that though and so there is less Magic Origins than there should be.

2. Risen Executioner

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Zombies matter. While I’ve been working on this article, Risen Executioner has already shown gains to remind us that zombies are popular and players want that tribe to succeed.

In the past, one aggressive archetype has surfaced as the clear winner. That means that it’s likely that either zombies or vampires will have more tools and therefore be a stronger deck. This will most likely generate the demand for more sales and carry one of the two much higher. I do suspect that there is room for growth with both creature types though.

Risen Executioner is already a winner. Hopefully you got your copies already because they were $2-$3 instead of the $5 they are now, but if not, I still think there is time to make money.

We have already seen Relentless Dead spoiled so we know that there is at minimum one amazing zombie to pair with Executioner. There will definitely be more zombies printed in the set and with the base of those two cards, I think there is a possible deck already brewing. Risen Executioner is a lord, has a relevant ability, and his stats are quite solid as well.

He has doubled in price already, but I think he could double up another time. I’m holding my copies until we see the full spoiler and then I will make the decision of whether it’s right to move or hold.

That’s my suggestion for the next couple weeks as well. Players will likely be eager to trade these cards at the new price, but I would be seeking to acquire more copies as cheaply as possible.

1. Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

If you didn’t look ahead, you may be surprised to see Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy as my number one pick for your pre-rotation pick up. There are many financial reasons why Jace is still a great target. Undoubtedly, this is a large investment, but the financial rewards will be there. Let’s look at the evidence to support this claim.

Attending Grand Prix Detroit gave me some firsthand experience to see how other dealers were approaching the situation. From inspecting the onsite buy prices, it was clear that other dealers were buying Jace as highly as I was and they wanted as many copies as they could get. The buy prices for this card were competitive between the booths as well.

Dealers don’t often buy a card at a high percentage unless it is trending upward. That’s a great piece of evidence and it helped solidify my stance that he has more room to grow.

The second piece of evidence I wish to submit is pedigree. We know that the first planeswalker to break out and destroy all financial expectations was Jace, the Mind Sculptor. I think this makes it more likely that this Jace will be the second one. You may think that is already a fact and not a possibility, but he hasn’t been much more than the normal $50 ceiling for typical Standard cards and I think his future trajectory will solidify his mold-breaking prowess.

Next up is the format we are going into. One of, if not the primary, abilities in the new Innistrad block is madness. This ability is enabled by discard outlets. Although there will be more, we already have a broken discard outlet available to us in Jace. Fiery Temper has been spoiled as a card in the set and there will be other great cards that become more potent with a mana discount.

You may not see Fiery Temper as Lightning Bolt, but if you don’t yet, you will once Standard takes form. There are many great blue-red cards to pair with these two and I expect that to be a great deck in the format. Even if the deck relies solely on that interaction, the potency it adds to your deck is worth the deck construction constraints.

Finally, if those examples weren’t enough, I should mention his viability in older formats. We have seen him show up in Grixis Control and Goryo's Vengeance Reanimator in Modern. Now this Jace is being spotted in Legacy and even Vintage lists. In these older formats it’s even easier to get five cards in your graveyard to flip him on turn three and flashback a spell.

One instance from a cube draft I held this past weekend shows how easy it is to flip him. My board evolved as first turn land, and then second turn Jace. On my third turn I cast Frantic Search, Preordain, then looted with Jace and flipped him.

Due to that sequence, I was then able to flashback Preordain and still hold up Entomb! You can imagine the surprise of my friends who were watching the game, looked away for a moment, and then saw my hand explode with all different cards.

There is a lot of evidence to support my claim that Jace, Vryn's Prodigy will continue to increase in price. I suspect that once he takes his place dictating the way the format evolves that he will jump from his current price to above $100. His current price may be a lot to invest in, but this is a card you can use in every format and he’s going nowhere but up.

Wrap Up

You’ll note that most of my recommendations are from Magic Origins and Dragons of Tarkir. These two sets have been out the longest, so their cards have the most potential for a price bump. While this is a normal rotation topic, we are not used to this rotation schedule yet so it bears repeating.

Once we get into the flow of this rotation schedule it will become normal to have these rotations twice a year, but right now the time is right for making some money on your investments. For me, I shelled out my own money for many of these picks. The ones I didn’t throw down on are cards I already have a solid stock of currently.

Make sure you are prepared and if there are other cards you think are likely to go up in value, share your thoughts in the comments.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Fixing Modern: Defining Format Mission

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About three weeks ago, I was talking Modern with a Magic-playing friend of mine. He and I were debating flex slots in UG Infect and whether it would be better to take Eldrazi or anti-Eldrazi to Grand Prix Detroit. One of those questions is an interesting conversation for specialists like Tom Ross. The other is equal parts tragedy ("How could this happen...?") and comedy ("lol @ Modern"). Tentacles aside, we were having an enjoyable discussion when his little brother interrupted. The brother, a 7th grader, had been listening and wanted to know more about this Magic utopia where big-mana Timmy decks coexisted with Turn 2 kills. He asked a simple question: "What is Modern?" His older brother tried explaining and got bogged down in "nonrotating format." I tried explaining and got stuck at "successor to Legacy." After stumbling around Google on our smart phones for 15 minutes, we realized the answer to this elementary question was surprisingly elusive. And that, ladies and gentlemen of Modern, is a problem.

Master Warcraft art

I've promised to do a column on Modern management, policy, and communication issues for a while. Today's article is the first in that "Fixing Modern" series. Each entry will have three objectives. First, identifying a particular Modern problem. Not just a "Where's my freaking Innocent Blood?" problem. Rather, high-level problems with Wizards' managing Magic's second most-popular Constructed format. Second, explaining why it is a problem. Finally, proposing solutions to that problem. I understand some readers won't buy "Fixing Modern's" premise in the first place. "Does Modern really need fixing?" "What makes you an authority on those fixes even if it is broken?" These are appropriate questions and I'll try addressing them in each article. Today, we'll tackle the fundamental question of "What is Modern?" both because it's a critical foundation for all other Modern inquiries, and so none of us get stumped by a 7th grader.

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Current Definitions of Modern

It's not entirely fair to say that no one has an answer to the "What is Modern?" question. There are plenty of responses out there but, as we'll talk about in this first section, many of those Modern definitions are inconsistent and inaccurate: even at the Wizards level. This underscores the need to see what's currently out there and check if any of the existing definitions pass muster. Final note: I'll be mostly using the concept of "mission," "purpose," and related terms interchangeably. I get enough of those overly-nuanced differences in my work at nonprofits, and I don't need to bring that granularity here.

Asking the players

Mass AppealImagine you're playing Modern at a local Friday Night Magic. Also, imagine it's either after the April bannings or before Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch, or you're probably playing alone. You're running the exciting Abzan Company vs. Jund matchup and curious Standard or Limited players approach you, asking what format you're playing. Let's assume they aren't entering with preconceived notions about Modern's banlist (don't worry: "Fixing Modern" will tackle ban mania soon enough) and just want to know "What is Modern?" How do you answer?

Here are some response I've given and heard from various players:

  • "It's a nonrotating format with (basically) all new-frame cards from 8th Edition until today."
  • "It's a super diverse format where you can play almost any deck and archetype."
  • "It's where you can go to play all your old Standard cards."
  • "It's like Legacy, but closer to Standard power-level."
  • "It's like Legacy, but less powerful and without the Reserve List problems."
  • "It's like Legacy, but just worse."

These replies are not supposed to be a truly representative sample, but I'm confident they are close to your own experience. As we can also attest, it takes about five minutes of browsing r/ModernMagic, forums like MTG Salvation, or the comment section of most StarCityGames and ChannelFireball articles to see similar disagreements. One example: pro-grinder Peter Shmanka posted "A Message to the MTGS Community and Wizards of the Coast" about Modern issues. Going through that discussion, I spotted at least 15 distinct definitions of Modern in its 22 pages. Obviously, one cursory examination of a forum thread does not a formal analysis make, but it supports an impression many of us have from talking about this issue in person.

Asking Wizards

Then again, perhaps these disagreements are inevitable at the player level. I'm not seeing an outcry to #FixStandard (Siege Rhinos aside) and I doubt many Standard players could give patron wizardsuccinct definitions about what their format is about either. Maybe all that's needed is for Wizards themselves to have a clear definition of the format. Or for Wizards to disseminate that definition, even if the player-base is too busy raging on Twitch chat to research it.

Thankfully, Wizards offers a few resources, both current and older, to answer the "What is Modern?" question. Let's go through a number of the most succinct definitions I found on the Wizards website, starting with the most descriptive statements: those purely defining Modern's scope:

"Cards from Core Set Eighth Edition and Mirrodin through today are legal in this format. Again, decks require a minimum of sixty cards and may have a sideboard of up to fifteen cards."
Wizards website, "Formats" (current)

"Introduced in 2011, Modern is a format designed to bridge the gap between Standard (which rotates sets once a year) and Legacy (a non-rotating format that allows cards from all of Magic's history). Expansions and core sets with the newer card frame (starting with Mirrodin and Eighth Edition) are legal in Modern."
magicthegathering.com staff, "Modern" (December 19, 2012)

At this level of definition, there isn't much disagreement. Love or loathe Modern, it's impossible to deny the format parameters, even if we could argue ad nauseam about the arbitrary decision to start at Mirrodin and not earlier/later. Here, at least, there is consensus at both the Wizards and player level.

Our next tier of definition transcends the descriptive to something approximating a Modern "purpose." That is, not just defining what cards Modern contains, but also what the format is supposed to accomplish for players and the game of Magic as a whole.

"...many of you have called for a non-rotating format that doesn't have the card availability problems of Legacy. We propose Modern as that format."
Tom LaPille, "A Modern Proposal" (May 26, 2011)

"Modern contains all cards released in core sets from Eighth Edition forward and expansion sets from Mirrodin forward. The format doesn't rotate, and new sets become legal in Modern on release... In many ways Modern is like a Greatest Hits of Magic format, that allows people to play pretty much any of their [favorite] decks from the past eight years."
David Sutcliffe, "Feature: A Modern Primer" (September 1, 2011)

Now we're getting somewhere. LaPille and Sutcliffe introduce two concepts that have remained central to Modern despite being written about in 2011. The first is the notion of addressing Legacy's "card availability problems." As Wizards has repeated more times than Marco Rubio has parroted his memorized 25 second speech, the Reserve List isn't going anywhere, which isn't great if you want Legacy to have Modern-level support while also keeping Candelabra of Tawnos under $500.Tarmogoyf FOIL MM15 From its formation, Modern has been a solution to this availability issue, and even if prices don't always feel like they align with that mission, they are significantly lower than they would be if Legacy was the Pro Tour format.

Moving away from the sticky domain of prices and availability, Sutcliffe talks about Modern's purpose with respect to its cardpool. As Standard rotates, players need to migrate somewhere with their old staples and decks. Moreover, players from past Standard environments wanted to bring all their Arcbound Ravagers, Cryptic Commands, and Wild Nacatls out of retirement. Modern is the promised land for both groups, giving one a place for old Standard and Extended strategies, and offering an ever-evolving home for staples as they rotate out of Standard.

LaPIlle's and Sutcliffe's definitions bring us to a gem from the unfailingly informative Sam Stoddard (seriously: read every article that man writes). Stoddard's definition synthesizes both the descriptive and more goal-oriented Modern statements into one pithy, em-dashed sentence.

"Modern has provided us a non-rotating format that is far more accessible than Legacy or Vintage, but still retains many of the qualities that people enjoy in those formats—such as a more stable metagame, the ability to play and tweak the same deck week after week, and simply a much more powerful card pool than Standard."
Sam Stoddard, "Developing Modern" (June 21, 2013)

Amen, Sam Stoddard! In this one excerpt, Stoddard captures it all. He highlights accessibility issues and Modern's spiritual overlap with Eternal offerings. He talks about power-level relative to Standard. He even discusses the inherent appeal of a nonrotating format in their metagame stability and deck consistency. Although we could wordsmith a bit (what does "accessible" mean?) and clarify certain statements (how "much more powerful" should Modern be than Standard?), this is overall a strong definition and one I'd be comfortable repeating.

Asking for trouble

Here's the problem: Stoddard's quote never gets repeated. I mean this both literally, in that no one ever repeats his words in a future Wizards article, and conceptually, in that some of the most important Modern content doesn't even allude to it. For one, we've already seen the absence of a defining mission on the "Formats" page. That reads as a startling omission: in the internet era, this will be one of the first places for prospective Moderners to acquires information. Why not give them a clear definition? More worryingly, we see these definitional inconsistencies and obscurities in some of the most public prologues to Modern. Take the preview articles for Pro Tour Fate Reforged and Oath from 2015 and 2016:

"What makes Modern so wonderful is that there are so many decks that you can play, covering every conceivable play style, and with every opportunity to outfox, outwit, outspeed, outfight, outdraw, outthink, or plain old outpunch your opponents... Modern lies in the sweetest of spots where everything you do can feel simultaneously extraordinarily powerful, and yet also vulnerable. Gratuitous, yet not inherently unfair. Modern is a format where almost anything goes"
Rich Hagon, "Pro Tour Fate Reforged Preview" (February 2, 2015)

"Modern is a format where crazy is run-of-the-mill, where devastating isn't just for Zac Hill, and where the power level in each and every deck is truly stacked."
Rich Hagon, "Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch Preview" (February 1, 2016)

Those aren't definitions. At best, those are advertisements, and I live in a Super Tuesday state Pore Over the Pagesso I know a thing or two about advertisements. At worst, they are buzz and fluff. I'm leaning towards the former due to the promotional aspect of the Pro Tour, but given some other issues with Pro Tour coverage and its tendency to oversell, the latter is equally possible. However you interpret them, Hagon's pitches do not echo Stoddard's clear, nuanced, and comprehensive definition given 2-3 years earlier. This, despite Hagon's quotes coming from the introductory articles to quite possibly the largest spectator events of the Magic year. If anything, the quotes highlights some of Modern's most glaring weaknesses more than its strengths: lack of interaction, excessive speed, and over-the-top power level. Compare Hagon's Modern descriptions with Mike Rosenberg's Legacy snippet from 2015's Grand Prix Seattle-Tacoma:

"Comprised of some of Magic's most powerful cards from 1993 until today, Legacy Constructed is a format where there are a multitude of deck options that all fall within some distinct categories—go aggressive, control the pace of play and win late, or assemble a combo and win quickly—that all tackle their category's game plan through different ways. The result is a format showcasing the greatest hits of Magic's 22 year history where players are likely to find a deck, fall in love with it, and stick with it for as long as they want."
Mike Rosenberg, "The Vastness and Draw of Legacy" (November 7, 2015)

This is a much more evenhanded, accurate, and overall appealing first impression of a non-Standard format. That is troubling. Seattle-Tacoma was only a Grand Prix, not the high-viewership Pro Tours in February 2015 and 2016. Wizards has been promoting Modern at the Pro Tour, Worlds, Pro Tour Qualifier, Regional Pro Tour Qualifier, FNM, and local level. Legacy just gets three Grand Prix tournaments per year. Given this lopsided support, I would think Wizards would have a concise and glowing mission statement for Modern. Instead, we get Rich Hagon waxing poetic. Is it possible that Hagon and the coverage team were trying to be more amusing than descriptive? Sure! But when compared to Rosenberg's quote, and the overall inconsistencies in presenting Modern's purpose, those introductions to the Pro Tour read as more confused than comical.

Hidden HorrorAs we can see, there is a series of major problems hidden (and not-so-hidden) beneath these seemingly concise quotes. Even Stoddard's! Why is the best definition of Modern from a random column in 2013? Why aren't similar Modern descriptions given in the Pro Tour primers for either 2015 or 2016? Why do Modern aficionados have to spend over an hour scouring Google and the Wizards archives to find these quotes? Is Wizards even following the best of these definitions? These problems, and many more, are central to our next section as we start unpacking why these citations fall short of defining Modern and why that is a serious issue for our format.

Problems with Existing Definitions

Modern generates a lot of argument. I'm not just talking arguments over Chinese vs. pizza for Tuesday takeout (last night: Pizza 1, Chinese 0). I'm talking Second Amendment heated, but reduced to the Magic scale (even if the strong language doesn't make it feel very reduced). These arguments include the banlist, the Pro Tour, format health, deck and archetype viability, the banlist, the turn four rule, reprints, prices, testing, and, you guessed it, more of the banlist.

I believe many of those issues are eventually worth addressing in "Fixing Modern." But I also Confusion in the Ranksbelieve every single one of them returns to the community's, and apparently Wizards', uncertainty in answering "What is Modern?" If we could respond decisively to this core question, we could use that Modern mission as an arbiter for other format-related disputes. Unfortunately, as we saw in the previous section, neither Wizards nor players can do this. Players disagree at almost every level: just try my "What is Modern?" question the next time you're at the local game store. Wizards either doesn't have a unified definition it publicly acknowledges to players, or doesn't even have an internal one in the first place. This makes it impossible to link seminal debates (e.g. the banlist) to a Modern-wide mission: there's no mission to actually link back to.

Take the controversial "turn four rule" as an example. Pretend you are explaining the rule to someone who has never heard of it before and you try connecting it to some semblance of a Modern mission. For reference, here's the most recent turn four rule text as cited from the Summer Bloom banning decision:

"When a format becomes imbalanced, or too many games are not interactive, we examine the cause... We look for competitively viable decks that frequently win before the fourth turn."
Wizards of the Coast, "January 18, 2016 Banned and Restricted Announcement" (January 18, 2016)

summer bloomTry using the quotes in our first section to justify this rule. If you turn to the basic set legality descriptions on the "Formats" page, you can't. There's nothing in that outlining of set cutoffs that justifies banning Summer Bloom. Even the Modern format page itself is mute to this, just explaining the existence of a banlist and not its rationale. What about Stoddard's definition? Now there's a much better example, because we can see how a consistent turn four 2-3 winner might not lead to the goal of a "stable metagame" if that metagame can't regulate the deck. In that case, Stoddard's quote would help us explain the rule and justify it to a Modern layman. And Hagon's? Not only do the Pro Tour Preview quotes fail to explain the turn four rule, they actually create confusion around it. They leave us asking about why some "extraordinarily powerful but vulnerable" strategies are okay and others are not. Here, the absence of a distinct Modern purpose hamstrings our ability to understand and explain the format's important turn four rule.

Splinter TwinBy a similar token, Wizards' decisions can sometimes feel at odds with the few mission clues that are out there. Many point to Splinter Twin's banning as a recent example of this. Or Birthing Pod's ban before that. Or Deathrite Shaman's demise. Taken individually, all those cases, except maybe Twin, saw Wizards righteously target a format-warping deck with a surgical (or nuking) ban. Taken collectively, however, those bans feel contrary to Stoddard's promise that Modern provides a "stable metagame" and lets us "tweak the same deck week after week." A more inclusive definition would anticipate that discontent and maybe even mitigate it in the future. Unfortunately, as with the Bloom case, there is no such mission if we want arbitration for these enduring Modern debates.

The Twin and Bloom scenarios are two recent examples of where the lack of clear Modern purpose gets us into trouble. We could also easily have pointed to Modern prices (defining "accessibility"), the Pro Tour (connecting Pro Tour "shakeup bans" to subsequent format instability), unbannings (determining appropriate Modern power level), and many other recurring issues. These debates, and their underlying problems, exist in no small part because of the uncertainty surrounding Modern's objectives. This makes defining that mission Priority #1 before we or Wizards can embark on any other "Fixing Modern" operations.

Three Steps to a New Modern Mission

Having investigated the existing, inadequate definitions of Modern, and having seen why those inadequacies are problematic for long-term format health, we can finally get to some solutions. I'm tempted to go all academic here and reveal there actually is no solution! We've explained the problem and now, esteemed colleagues, we turn to our noble peer researchers to devise the solution! Just kidding. You're either done with higher education and academic double-speak, or you're happy it isn't upon you yet. Either way, here are two steps Wizards and the content providers can take to resolve these issues:

  • Wizards: Decide on a Modern mission and publish on the "Formats" page
    Neither new players, format veterans, nor the Nexus Editor in Chief should have to search Google using "site:magic.wizards.com" queries to find the definition of a flagship Proclamation of Rebirthformat. This information must be readily accessible, and the "Formats" page is the best home for it. If Wizards already has a working, internal definition the public isn't currently privy to, publish it. If Wizards has a definition they don't want to share with the public, rethink that definition and ask why it's so secretive. My suspicion is conversations would lead to revisions. If Wizards does not have a definition, internally decide on one and then post it. They have plenty of starting points cited in this article alone. Wizards should NOT crowd-source this process, or we'll be stuck at the "Asking the players" section and bogged down in surveys for a year. They should simply make their executive decision, which I would bet has already been made and is ready for public consumption, and then simply announce it. Using Stoddard's quote as a baseline, here's a Modern Nexus suggestion:

Modern is a non-rotating format that is more accessible and affordable than Legacy or Vintage. It features a stable metagame and a card pool that is more powerful than Standard's but less powerful than Legacy's and Vintage's. It allows players to play and tweak the same deck from year to year, and play a diverse range of strategies and archetypes. 

  • Pros/Authors/Coverage: Promote the newly minted, official definition
    First, Wizards decides and distributes the mission. Next, the authors, commentators, professional players, and other Modern personalities need to adopt it. This means resisting the urge to make sweeping, populist generalizations about the format, and instead pointing to that definition as a banner behind which the community can rally. Does it need to get cited word-for-word in every single sentence about Modern? I certainly hope not. Should its spirit get conveyed in the content? Hopefully. By pulling back from the rhetoric-heavy, substance-light definitions as seen in the Pro Tour Previews, all content providers can help advance Modern towards a more unified understanding of the format.

Taken as a whole, this process would propel us from our current state of perpetual Modern uncertainty to firmer ground. Of course, players would also have to get on board too, and a third step could easily be "Players: Resist misleading/inaccurate definitions." I'm hesitant to put too much burden on players, who have been uncommonly patient with some of Wizards' mismanagement in this realm, and I'm confident they would readily rally behind Wizards if they undertook these two steps.

I'm optimistic about this process, but I can think of a few objections both readers and Wizards would have. Here are two of the most salient and my responses, both dealing with the element of expectation management:

  • Jace the Mind SculptorWhat if a public mission doesn't match player expectations and they leave in droves?
    This is a big danger in formalizing a Modern mission. Right now, Modern can be all things to all players. Without an actual definition to cite, these players can all share equal levels of dissatisfaction with how Modern isn't addressing their personal needs. Once Wizards finalizes a purpose-statement, however, that uncertainty vanishes and some players might realize Modern actually is or isn't the format where they can one day play Jace, the Mind Sculptor. That should be a totally acceptable loss to both Wizards and the Modern playerbase. The benefits of increased format clarity far outweigh the short-term losses of those who are unhappy with Modern's newly defined goals, especially if that statement was an entry point (as I believe it is) to addressing all the other issues.
  • Could a public mission create unfulfillable, long-term expectations?
    A second danger surrounds impossible promises. Taking my sample purpose statement above as an example, if card prices ever approached Legacy levels, players might be even angrier than they would be otherwise because the mission promises otherwise. Does this risk, whether in prices, diversity, stability, or other qualities, mean we should not have a mission at all? Absolutely not! For one, Wizards could carefully select promises that were fulfillable: I believe, as do many others I know, that "availability" is deliberately used because you can guarantee it easier through reprints. "Affordability" is much trickier. Wordsmithing like this could help mitigate this risk. Second, I argue it's actually good for Wizards to have some lofty expectations to hold itself to. When your format is just a "nonrotating format from 8th Edition through present," the bar isn't very high. This would increase their public accountability while not creating a new Reserve List problem where Wizards is bound to an old promise.

Crafting statements like these is often difficult and contentious, but as we've seen throughout this article, the benefits far exceed the risks. I'll also add, it's a very rare thing to have an institution as widespread as Modern not benefit from a succinct mission, unless you really believe Magic needs to be a closed enterprise run by a corporate cabal. I don't think anyone here truly wants that, even if they might allege it, and a mission would help move away from that image.

Fixing Modern Together

On the topic of pressing and reasonable objections, here's another one I've both heard before and can read already in the comments: Modern is fine, event attendance is fine, the banlist is fine, stop complaining! Looking beyond the Eldrazi disaster, those defenses certainly have a kernel of truth to them. Grand Prix Philadelphia may not have had Grand Prix Richmond attendance figures, but the format does appear to be growing and expanding from year to year. Those who aren't interested in "Fixing Modern" will note this continued growth, and Wizards' continued support, as a sign that nothing needs to be changed.

I disagree. To begin, there's such a large subset of Modern players, whether in forums, writing articles, or at game stores, who loudly vocalize Modern problems at every turn. It's Drown in Sorrownaive to think the quieter Modern masses, who may well be a majority, aren't consuming that vitriol and getting dismayed. In my circle of about 20 Magic friends, I know of five who have either departed Modern due to the threat of bannings, or haven't made the Modern jump due to overall format uncertainty. If these discontented murmurs are affecting 25% of the Modern population, that's worrisome. Second, even if my 25% is not representative of all groups, I still believe there is a large, untapped body of Magic players who could be enjoying Modern but are not. This includes younger players and women, two major target demographics for Wizards. It includes Standard expatriates and Limited buffs. It includes kitchen table champions and Commander fans. Modern should not be all things to all people, but I believe there are enough of those Modernless Magicians out there that our format would only benefit by adding them. A mission starts that expansion.

Between those reasons and all those stated in today's article, I maintain "Fixing Modern" is an important and timely topic which we can approach in a constructive, informed, and conciliatory manner. I'm excited to hear what all of you think of today's article and the promise of more to come. Send me a message in the comments and I'll talk with all of you soon! Now, to convince that 7th grader to read this 4,300 word answer to his question...

Insider: Getting Ready for the Standard Rotation

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It's that time of year again. Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) will inject new life into the Standard metagame this April as Khans of Tarkir (KTK) and Fate Reforged (FRF) rotate out.

A period of rotation is, in my opinion, the absolute best time to make Standard speculations on MTGO. I'll outline some of the cards and decks I think have a good shot at earning themselves a nice chunk of the new Standard metagame.

Rotational Dynamics

Ari Lax just wrote a fantastic article titled "Rotational Dynamics" on SCG Premium which should not be missed. In it he goes over some of the big picture changes that will take place in SOI Standard. I'll summarize some of the main concepts below.

1) No More Fetchlands

The removal of fetchlands will do a few things to Standard as a result of almost all decks working with weaker manabases.

Since splashing a third and fourth color won't be so "free" anymore, a bigger fraction of the metagame will be taken up by one- and two-color decks. This gives mono-colored cards more of a chance to shine since decks won't have as many multicolored spells to choose from.

Decks will have an easier time casting two of the same colored mana on turn two (or even three of the same colored mana on turn four) now that they wont have to cast cards like Anafenza, the Foremost or Mantis Rider off of two basics and a battle land. Strong two-drops like Harbinger of the Tides and Knight of the White Orchid might start showing up a lot more.

Decks having access to worse mana and worse cards in general (since the power-level of KTK was quite high) means a less tempo-oriented format. The focus will shift from using mana efficiently towards using cards efficiently.

This means cards that create card advantage at the cost of tempo will probably gain a lot of ground: Deathmist Raptor, Den Protector, planeswalkers, cards with awaken, Planar Outburst and counterspells, among others.

2) Different Removal Spells

In the current Standard, the most heavily played removal spells are Abzan Charm, Fiery Impulse, Murderous Cut, and Crackling Doom. These cards are extremely potent as they're not only efficient on mana, but also flexible in that they kill almost anything.

Ari notes that when these removal spells and many of the powerful multicolored creatures rotate, Ultimate Price becomes one of the best removal spells in the format and will see heavy play in any deck playing black. Taking things one step further, this means the few gold creatures that do survive rotation will become stronger. Cards like Reflector Mage and the Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) Dragonlords.

3) Decks That Don't Lose Much

Another thing to consider on rotation is which decks are left mostly intact. I list some of them below:

Ramp Decks - These decks lose very little. The biggest losses are probably Rattleclaw Mystic and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon, but they are very replaceable with similarly functioning cards like Hedron Crawler and Dragonlord Atarka.

B/W Control - Jeff Hoogland pioneered this deck at the very beginning of the format and it seems to me like it will be a strong contender in the brand new one coming up. Cards like Grasp of Darkness, Ultimate Price, and Ob Nixilis Reignited look great post-rotation.

Devoid/Eldrazi Strategies - A few different devoid strategies started seeing some play and they obviously lose very little. Mono-colored Eldrazi decks that take advantage of Thought-Knot Seer and Reality Smasher will still be quite good.

Dragon Decks - All of the dragon synergies from DTK remain intact and cards like Dragonlord Ojutai and Thunderbreak Regent will likely continue to dominate Standard.

Bant Collected Company - Reflector Mage will probably still be one of the most broken cards in Standard, although it may fit into fewer decks with the loss of fetchlands. The combination of Collected Company and Reflector Mage is probably not going anywhere any time soon.

My Picks

Given what has been discussed above, I'll outline a few of my picks based on their current pricing as of March 11.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Silumgar

A powerful card that has seen highs above 10 tix when Esper Dragons and Sultai were dominating Standard. With the change in the removal suite of Standard, the Dragonlords seem to pick up a lot of power.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Dromoka

Another powerful card that has even seen some Modern play. Much harder to answer in the new format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Ojutai

With Crackling Doom gone, Ojutai might look to dominate as it did at its printing.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Harbinger of the Tides

A powerful card that has seen play in Modern but not yet in Standard. New manabases may make UU much easier to cast.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Vastwood Seer

With new manabases, playing a healthy amount of forests to support Nissa will be less of an issue. Nissa will also benefit from a format that is more grindy and slowed down to the point that you can reliably flip it and not be dead.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ob Nixilis Reignited

Ob Nixilis benefits from many of the forecasted changes to Standard. Since it is a single color, it will fit into more of the one- and two-color decks we expect to see on the rise. Additionally, being a slowish card advantage engine should be much more competitive as the format slows down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ruinous Path

I think Ruinous Path is a great spec for reasons similar to Ob Nixilis. This is a card that benefits from both weaker manabases and an overall slower format since it allows the awaken clause to be relevant more often. Both of these cards have seen a low amount of play relative to their power levels by my own intuition.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shrine of the Forsaken Gods

I continue to love this spec. Currently sitting at 0.15 tix, I think it has a lot of potential since it is an auto four-of include in any decks ramping into Kozilek or Ulamog.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hidden Dragonslayer

A great card that may benefit from the format slowing down, along with all of the dragons and eldrazi that should be prevalent in the new metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Haven of the Spirit Dragon

Works well with both eldrazi and dragons. Lots of potential here.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thunderbreak Regent

Has proven itself in the past and is at a new low. Keeps all of the same great dragon synergies from the past.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Den Protector

Has proven itself in the past and is at a new low. Should benefit from the return to fewer colors per deck and a slower format.

 

Song of the Week : Tides From Nebula - We are the Mirror (post-rock)

Enjoy!

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