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The Dirty Work: Preparing for Post-Eldrazi Living

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The numbers are in, and things couldn’t look worse. Prior to this weekend’s events, which will forever go down in history as “The Day Liberty Died,” there remained a small sliver of hope. Maybe the tools exist to beat Eldrazi (probably not). Maybe our future has yet to be set (seems pretty set). Maybe there’s hope for us all (hope appears drowned). Unfortunately, the trifecta known as Grand Prix Detroit/Melbourne/Bologna had other plans.

Eldrazi Leaving Banner

Today, we’ll analyze the weekend’s events, and find some diamonds in the rough to hold us over until April. Fear not, child. The Eldrazi might have enslaved us all, but we can still enjoy the shell of our lives while they are still ours to own.

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The Numbers

Collectively, the Top 8s for the three Grand Prix saw an archetype breakdown as follows. Individual event discussion will come later, but as these three events happened simultaneously it’s interesting to note their combined statistics. While many of you are resigned to quit Magic until April, paying very close attention to information like this will help you get one step ahead should you find yourself in an event immediately after April’s banning. Imagine for a second the edge you’ll have verses players that took the month off to enjoy the sunshine, or spend time with their families, or work towards their future. The choice is clear, and victory will most assuredly be sweet.

Top 8 Archetype Breakdown – Combined

  • U/W Eldrazi 9**
  • R/G Eldrazi 5
  • Abzan Company 2*
  • Storm 1
  • Living End 4
  • Affinity 1
  • Bant Company 1
  • Dredge 1

*denotes 1st place finish

It’s impossible to argue with these numbers. Eldrazi as a macro-archetype saw a staggering 58.3% Top 8 conversion rate. It’s easy to overlook a statistic like that, after all, it’s “only” half, but when you start to realize that this means one Top 8 contained two Eldrazi decks, one had five, and one had a whopping SIX Eldrazi decks in the winner’s circle and the true picture starts to become clear. Eldrazi is busted, Eldrazi is overpowered, and the results speak for themselves. Whether the tools to beat Eldrazi exist or not are irrelevant, the results show one or more of three scenarios.

  1. Eldrazi is just far and away more powerful than everything else, and nothing can keep up. This is the most likely scenario, as fast mana is truly broken and gaining four or more mana out of a single Eye of Ugin in a turn is just disgusting and unfortunately common.
  2. DamnationThere is nothing in the format that can keep Eldrazi in check. This is certainly not entirely true, as methods to combat Eldrazi have been found, chief among them sweepers like Damnation and bullets like Ensnaring Bridge. Even so, Eldrazi can tpyically win through these cards through raw power or sideboard tweaks.
  3. The tools to beat Eldrazi exist, but employing them requires drastic changes that mutate an archetype into losing against other strategies in the format, and/or it’s still possible to lose “favored” matches due to the inherent power level of Eldrazi and “variance.” This is the most likely culprit and is probably equally to blame as #1, but is often overlooked. In the weeks since the Pro Tour, many players have demonstrated an ability to defeat Eldrazi with a particular strategy/archetype, but on a larger scale these outliers get weeded out by pure repetition. Even a deck that beats Eldrazi 6 out of 10 times has to play perfect AND do exceptionally well against the rest of the field to Top 8. Too many stars have to align for the underdog to defeat Eldrazi and the field to convert to Top 8, which (along with the fact that Eldrazi is certainly busted) explains why we see a Top 8 market share of almost 60%.

Grand Prix Detroit

Top 8 Breakdown

  • Finals: Abzan Company vs. U/W Eldrazi
  • Abzan Company 1*
  • U/W Eldrazi 4
  • R/G Eldrazi 2
  • Storm 1

*denotes champion

Top 32 Numbers

  • U/W Eldrazi 10
  • Abzan Company 6
  • R/G Eldrazi Aggro 4
  • R/G Eldrazi 3
  • Storm 2
  • Elves 2
  • Colorless Eldrazi 1
  • Bogles 1
  • Eldrazi Tron 1
  • Scapeshift 1
  • U/W Control 1

Wall of RootsGrand Prix Detroit saw a strong performance out of Abzan Company, the only strategy to put up a fight against the Eldrazi menace. While Abzan Company demonstrated it couldn’t keep up in a reactive metagame full of Splinter Twin/Grixis Control, it boast a strong matchup against Eldrazi, as the incidental lifegain from Kitchen Finks and solid blockers in the form of Wall of Roots and Voice of Resurgence gives the Eldrazi linear attack plan fits. This same strategy is solid against a field of Burn and Affinity as well, and access to the usual sideboard toolbox grants Abzan Company solid game against a field that has lined up to support it. It’s amazing seeing both the removal heavy archetypes (Twin/Grixis Control) and fast combo (Amulet Bloom/Tron) simultaneously disappear. This left Abzan Company to focus heavily on both solidifying already favorable matchups and concentrating on Eldrazi.

Abzan Company took home the Detroit trophy, but the deck still suffers from consistency issues, “losing to itself,” and all-around awkward draws, which might sound like three ways to say the same thing, but there are some differences.Viscera Seer My experience with Abzan Company has taught me the deck can beat itself in many excruciating ways. Draw too many Viscera Seers? Dead. No mana creatures and a Collected Company? Better hope your opponent has a slow draw. Need to kill something ever? Good luck! Even though Abzan Company is strong against Eldrazi by design it probably loses more matches than it “should” due both to stumbling and Eldrazi’s unfair consistency and velocity. If Eldrazi is still an archetype (albeit a more fair one) after the April bans, it’s possible Abzan Company could rise to Tier 1, or even “best deck status.” That’s a long call, and will probably only happen if we see Eldrazi nerfed and nothing else shift, but still worth discussion.

Another interesting story out of this event is the Sigrist/Hayne/Strasky/Saporito performance with R/G Aggro Eldrazi. While “normal” R/G Eldrazi goes large with Oblivion Sower, World Breaker and Kozilek's Return, this streamlined list employs Lightning Bolt and Eldrazi Obligator in an attempt to push the unfair Ancient Tombs as far as they can go. Still, only one of these professional pilots was able to sneak into the Top 16, so it’s probably safe to say that the stock R/G Eldrazi is better heads up.

Day 1 Top 100 Information

Besides reminding us of the horrors of Eldrazi, the Day One info reinforces the Top 32 numbers, showing Abzan Company as the clear front-runner to Eldrazi. Interestingly, Infect was the best performing Day 1 deck to NOT Top 32, failing to place one of the five Top 100 Infect decks in the Top 32. We have to be careful not to put too much stock into Day 1 Top deck numbers (as Day Two Metagame Percentages they are not) but it’s still worth looking at. I wonder if Wizards chose to do the Day 1 Top 100 numbers instead in an effort to try to paint a better picture of the metagame. Didn’t work, but nice try.

Grand Prix Bologna

Top 8 Breakdown

  • Finals: U/W Eldrazi vs. U/W Eldrazi
  • U/W Eldrazi 3*
  • Living End 1
  • Affinty 1
  • R/G Eldrazi 2
  • Bant Company 1

*denotes champion

Top 32 Information

  • U/W Eldrazi 11
  • R/G Eldrazi 4
  • Living End 3
  • Abzan Company 2
  • Scapeshift 2
  • Affinity 2
  • G/w Eldrazi 1
  • G/w Tron 1
  • Ascendancy 1
  • Bant Company 1
  • Storm 1
  • U/R Eldrazi 1
  • U/W Control 1

Bologna saw a performance similar to Detroit, except for the lack of R/G Eldrazi Aggro and Abzan Company. Abzan Company still put two decks in the Top 32, but they limped in at 25th and 27th and had nowhere near the representation they did in Detroit. Instead, we observe a smattering of archetypes struggling to survive in an Eldrazi landscape, and there really isn’t much interesting to see here.

What is interesting, however, is what we do NOT see: no Burn, no Infect, no Jund! It’s possible World BreakerJund was on players' minds after its previous win at Philadelphia, but I’m still surprised to not see it take at least one of the 64 slots we’ve looked at so far. R/G Eldrazi recurring World Breaker is definitely tough, but not enough to make that matchup “bad” any more than it already was in my mind. U/W Eldrazi is casting things like Eldrazi Displacer and Eldrazi Skyspawner which has to make our Lightning Bolt and Kolaghan's Command better, but admittedly makes our Liliana of the Veil’s worse. It's possible Thought-Knot Seer is stronger than I anticipated, as it comes down like a CMC 3 card but costs four and dodges Inquisition of Kozilek. This forces Jund to have Thoughtseize to answer it, if not Eldrazi can take a Terminate and leave us hoping to draw one to deal with the threat and get a card back.

Day 1 Top 100 Breakdown

While the Top 32 might have been a bit flat, The Breakdown for Bologna is somewhat more interesting. We are still seeing gigantic Eldrazi shares, along with similar Abzan Company numbers closer to Detroit. It's possible Abzan Company ran into some hate in the later rounds to keep it out of Top 16, or variance caught up with the pilots. Despite Company's poor showing in Bologna, I still believe Abzan Company is one of the best non-Eldrazi archetypes currently.

Once we dig a little deeper, we see U/W Control taking 9 slots, almost 10%! While only one was able to Top 32, that’s at least a little encouraging for any control diehards out there (read: me). Control definitely is fighting an uphill battle against Eldrazi on one hand and everything else on the other, but post-ban we might have something here. Besides some interesting Bring to Light Scapeshift numbers there’s nothing else to see here.

Grand Prix Melbourne

Top 8 Statistics

  • Finals: U/W Eldrazi vs. U/W Eldrazi
  • U/W Eldrazi 2*
  • Living End 3
  • R/G Eldrazi 1
  • Abzan Company 2
  • Dredge 1

*denotes champion

Top 32 Information

  • U/W Eldrazi 11
  • Abzan Company 4
  • Living End 4
  • R/G Eldrazi 4
  • Affinity 1
  • Bant Eldrazi 1
  • Dredge 1
  • Grishoalbrand 1
  • Jeskai 1
  • Lantern Control 1
  • R/G Tron 1
  • U/R Eldrazi 1
  • U/W Control

Living EndAnother Grand Prix, more Eldrazi. Abzan Company eanrs a solid runner-up showing, and we even have the obligatory single U/W Control list to complete the picture. It’s interesting to see Living End put up a strong performance in Melbourne but less so in other venues. One thing to keep in mind when looking at these numbers is the polarizing effect Eldrazi has on the metagame. If we’re seeing a deck perform in anything resembling a solid fashion, it’s because it can hang with Eldrazi without folding to the rest of the field. This means Abzan Company and Living End need to have close attention paid to them in the weeks to come. Should we continue to see numbers like this up until April’s bannings, we will have a new “Level 0” to focus on in the immediate aftermath.

Day 1 Top 100 Breakdown

The biggest takeaway here is Affinity’s solid numbers and abysmal Top 32 conversion. 11 lists in the Top 100, but only one slides in at 17th. Eldrazi definitely has Affinity’s number, with R/G Eldrazi employing Kozilek's Return as early as turn two and U/W Eldrazi packing board flooding creatures galore. Scions don’t really block much, but can buy time with Drowner of Hope and ramp into Reality Smasher and the like.

Life After Eldrazi

Looking forward, the biggest questions in my mind are about:

  • Abzan Company and Living End
    Without Eldrazi (or with a weaker Eldrazi) will these decks stay in the running, or fall back to obscurity? Are we looking at the genesis of our future Tier 1?
  • Burn/Affinity/Infect
    The stalwarts of Modern have seemingly all but disappeared. With Eldrazi nerfed, will they return? Abzan Company probably doesn’t mind, but can Living End keep up?
  • Is there a new deck waiting in the wings for its chance to shine?

I’ll leave you with some goodies to take into your weekend. If you plan on skipping Magic until April, I wouldn’t blame you, but maybe take one of these lists for a spin to this weekend’s events. Remember, every lame deck format is a perfect excuse to play something you wouldn’t normally play otherwise! Be experimental!

*Don’t discount this list. Raymond Perez Jr. was the 2013-14 Rookie of the Year and an excellent player, and he was tiebreakers away from a Top 8 in Detroit. Don’t diss on Control!

Eldrazi might be destroying everything in sight, but we can still take some fresh decks for a spin and get acquainted with archetypes we might not be familiar with. Who knows? Maybe post-April Ban U/W Control becomes the best deck in the room?! (crosses fingers)

Thanks for reading, and I’ll see you next week!

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

GP Detroit Tournament Report

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The winter weather blew my team and I in the direction of Detroit this past weekend. Would these players be the heroes of the Gatewatch and try to stop the Eldrazi horde or would they join the army and fight for the dark side? As fate would have it, this team was divided. Two tried to join the heroes of legend while one slipped away in the night to fight with the enemy.

You may be thinking, what crazy concoction did Mike bring to battle this time? You might think, he is known for decks like Kiki Chord with Siege Rhinos and Temur Company, but no matter what deck he is on, it’s always interesting and against the grain. This time is a little different. For once, I actually love the best deck!

Eldrazi is a blast to play, but never fear, I wouldn’t just play a stock list. Even when I’m playing the best deck, I still brew within those confines. My friends were sporting Affinity and Ad Nauseam, but I when the Eldrazi whispered in my ear, I threw my lot in with them.

Colorless Eldrazi by Mike Lanigan

Creatures

4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Endless One
4 Matter Reshaper
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Reality Smasher
2 Endbringer

Spells

1 Gitaxian Probe
2 Gut Shot
3 Dismember
2 Chalice of the Void
2 Ratchet Bomb
2 Damping Matrix

Lands

3 Eye of Ugin
4 Eldrazi Temple
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
3 Mutavault
4 Ghost Quarter
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Cavern of Souls
2 Wastes

Sideboard

1 Vesuva
1 Pithing Needle
1 Torpor Orb
1 Endbringer
2 Batterskull
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Gut Shot
3 All is Dust
2 Chalice of the Void
1 Surgical Extraction

After playing with and against Eldrazi variations, I knew I didn’t like the colored ones. I felt their mana was inconsistent and I didn’t like the way they interacted with Affinity as well as other archetypes. For some reason, most likely Chalice of the Void, I was drawn to Colorless Eldrazi. Being underpowered in the mirror was a stance I was willing to take to be better against other decks in the field.

Most of the deck is similar to other versions but I have sweet cards like Damping Matrix to shut down Affinity as well as other problem cards like Eldrazi Displacer, Viscera Seer, Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, Scavenging Ooze, Tasigur, the Golden Fang and many others. With how well it was testing, I felt it was worth the risk to play alongside Ratchet Bomb and Endbringer, who was an all-star every time I cast him.

There are some other sweet cards in the deck like the one-of Gitaxian Probe to help shave on lands and tell me what to set the Chalice on. I loved the main deck Gut Shots and as expected they were a blowout in many situations all weekend.

The sideboard was nearly perfect as well. Most of the sideboard are cards you might expect, but they fulfilled their roles quite well. Then there are cards like Batterskull, which aren’t typical Eldrazi cards, but it was great in the mirror and against controlling decks. All is Dust is such an unfair card in this deck and I wrecked many decks with it. Overall the sideboard was exactly what I needed to battle against any deck.

Without delving into each card in the deck, let’s get started and see what the weather was like in Modern for Eldrazi Winter at GP Detroit.

Round 1 - Bushwhacker Zoo

Round 1 started off as quite the blood boiler. Not only did I sit down across from an explosive deck but I made a play mistake that cost me game one. This wasn't a great way to start the day, especially running with no byes.

My opponent’s deck was an interesting mix of creatures and burn spells as well as Vexing Devil. The most powerful interaction he had going was Burning-Tree Emissary into Reckless Bushwhacker. We all dreamed of this possibility with Goblin Bushwhacker but the double red made it hard to work with. This is a potent combination though and one brewed to be blisteringly fast.

Fortunately I was ready with my main deck Gut Shot. Unfortunately though, I mistakenly thought the new Bushwhacker had two toughness and lost game one due to this misplay.

Game two and three went more my way though. In the second game my opponent helped me out by bolting himself with his lands but my creatures were storming across the battlefield even quicker than he did to me in the first game. The third game was a close one too but I was able to fade a burn spell and attack for my first victory of the weekend.

Record: 1-0

Round 2 - Affinity

After testing the matchup so much, I felt confident, but sometimes they kill you turn three with infect damage while they’re on the play and you had no removal. Game two showcased how impressive Chalice on zero is against them when you’re on the play.

The third game started off great for me. I had an aggressive start and my opponent had a slow one. I even got to rip a card from his hand on turn two with Thought-Knot. My choices were Arcbound Ravager and Master of Etherium. I took Master and attacked for a bunch. My opponent’s next draws were Inkmoth Nexus, Steel Overseer, and a second Ravager. With no removal, my attack was shut down abruptly.

Then after a great match, I decided to give my opponent the win a turn early by attacking with the Blinkmoth Nexus. When you are playing against Affinity, forgetting about their Inkmoth can spell your doom and it did for me. I’m still kicking myself for that attack. There is no certainty I would have won the match because my opponent’s board was quite impressive, but he was at four life and I definitely could have lived a turn longer.

Record: 1-1

Round 3 - Merfolk

Typically Merfolk can be a bad matchup for the Sol lands of Eldrazi, but your opponent still has to draw well. They also have to draw a bunch of creatures so they have a fish army big enough to kill you.

In game one, I was faster than my opponent and he had to start blocking. That’s one facet about Modern right now; if you have to block, you might be dead. As long as you are on the offensive, you are good, but once you need to start playing defense, it’s hard to turn the tide back in your favor.

The second game we both flooded the board with mana and creatures. In this case Eldrazi is favored because the creatures are bigger. Merfolk needs their creatures to work together, while Eldrazi can attack with one big dude and it’s fine.

Record: 2-1

Round 4 - G/B Loam

If you are rooting against Eldrazi, then my round 4 opponent deserves a medal. This match my mulligans definitely killed me. Although I kept a decent five card hand in game one, my opponent’s incremental card advantage overwhelmed me. All I needed was one more land and I would have been able to get things in gear, but that never happened.

Game two was just about the best-case scenario for my opponent. I mulled to four and then on his turn two, he destroyed my Eldrazi Temple, Eldrazi Mimic, and made me discard a creature all with Smallpox. What a beating! I couldn’t even be upset and I wished my opponent good luck against the rest of the Eldrazi army.

Record: 2-2

Round 5 - Bogles

Promptly after I got the biggest beating of my life, I turned around and did the same thing to the nice guy sitting across from me in round 5.

When you are playing Chalice of the Void, your options are mulligan because you think it’s a dead card in the mirror, play it on zero if you think they’re battling with Affinity, or cast it for one on turn one if you think they’re playing basically anything else. Most of the time, you have to place your bet and hope it pays off.

This story doesn’t end well for my opponent because I chose Chalice for one and my opponent didn’t need to play any part of the game to know he couldn’t win so rather than give away his deck choice, he scooped.

Game two didn’t go much differently. We both mulliganed but he went to four and I stayed on six. Then Chalice for one sealed his fate yet again. Despite my route to victory, we had a nice chat after the match and wished each other well. Chalice of the Void is a beating and sometimes that’s all you need to defeat your opponent.

Record: 3-2

Round 6 - UWR Control

As I was playing through Day 1, I noted many copies of UWR Control decks floating around. When my opponent started his slew of removal spells like Lightning Helix and Path to Exile, I knew this is what he was playing.

From playing this match, what I found was that this type of deck only has so many cards that kill giant Eldrazi. So, if you are getting Endless One for at least four, they don’t have many targets for their Lightning Bolt type cards. They will take some damage from their lands, you have haste creatures, and eventually their removal will dry up.

Even when they can kill my guys like with Matter Reshaper, it still gives me some card advantage. One of the times he killed it, I even got to replace it with another Matter Reshaper. This is how it played out in both games.

Record: 4-2

Round 7 - U/W Eldrazi

In my first match against another Eldrazi sympathizer we both had incredible draws game one. Unfortunately my opponent was on the play so instead of me killing him on turn three, I had to block and then it was all downhill from there. I didn’t get to be on the play very much during this event and in games like this, it was a huge detriment.

Game two, he got a Worship online a turn before I could Thought-Knot it from his hand and I couldn’t draw a removal spell for his creature so that the Worship would deactivate and I could beat him. This was an intense match but one I fell short of winning.

Record: 4-3

Round 8 - Lantern

At this point, both of my friends and I became the 4-3 car, which is quite a disappointment, and then to top it off I had to play my worst matchup!

Sometimes though your worst matchup isn’t that bad. In game one, my opponent had a pretty good lock with a milling artifact and an Ensnaring Bridge. Fortunately for me, I was able to keep attacking under the Bridge with my creature lands. Then when I got Endbringer online, I was able to significantly shorten the clock.

Game two is another circumstance that shows why this colorless version is great against the rest of the field. Turn one I was able to get a Chalice for one down and stop him from deploying the lock pieces in his hand. He never recovered and a couple turns later, he was overwhelmed with Eldrazi.

Record: 5-3

Round 9 - Zoo Aggro

With Wizards changing the day two qualification to 6-3, I still had a shot to make it back for some more Eldrazi Winter action. I was able to end the day just as it began, against Zoo. This time around, my opponent had a more tradition Zoo list without the aggressive Bushwhacker blitz. Game one, I never got my footing and my opponent burned me out after his attack on turn four. Dismember doesn’t help much if you are at a low life total and that was certainly the case in this first game.

The second game went much better for me. I was still on the back foot and defending myself by blocking with Eldrazi Mimic, but this time, I had All is Dust to destroy his Tarmogoyf, Goblin Guide and Kird Ape.

The third game was another blood boiler. I mulled to six, while my opponent had to go to five. Luckily for him though, he was able to draw possibly the sickest five of all time. I made sure to take clear notes of this game so I could share it with everyone. I’m still ecstatic I was able to win this game.

Here was his sequence:

Turn 1: Goblin Guide
Turn 2: Goblin Guide, Wild Nacatl
Turn 3: Goblin Guide

His hand was Boros Charm and all he needed was a fetch to find the right color of mana to finish me off from two life. Luckily I was able to smash his reality and end the game before he could find the mana to land the killing blow.

Record: 6-3

Day 1 Wrap-Up

So, after a long day of twenty plus minutes between rounds, I made my way to get some much needed food. There was a lot of Eldrazi on Day 1, but it wasn’t so overwhelming that everyone played against it all day. I spoke with opponents for whom I was their only opponent playing a version of the deck. Sure there were some players who battled against it in half of their matches, but it wasn’t as bad as what we all thought possible.

I’m not sure I agree with the decision to break at 6-3. With approximately 2500 players on Day 1, we were left with an enormous 700 players qualified for Day 2. I don’t feel like this is necessary and I kind of wish they would remove this false hope.

Basically, with that type of record, your only option is to win out on Day 2. Sure we got to keep playing, but I feel the original cut makes it better for everyone. I’d be interested to hear some feedback from everyone in the comments on the 6-3 vs. 7-2 debate as well.

Day 2

Round 10 - BUG Infect

The start of Day 2 began with both of us knowing the contents of each other’s hand. We both cast Gitaxian Probe and got to see how Eldrazi vs. Infect was going to shape up for game one. Despite perfect information, my opponent still played his Glistener Elf into my Dismember. If he would have saved it, I think he might have been able to maneuver the game into his favor, but he never drew another creature and I killed him quickly.

Game two was a quick defeat for my opponent. It was a lopsided game but this time not in my favor. He had an excellent draw, as did I, but he was on the play and I didn’t draw a removal spell.

The third game was definitely an interesting showcase of what can happen when both players are low on resources. We both completed our double mulligan and then began the game trying strange lines of play to win the match. My opponent lost his only infect creature to my Dismember and was left drawing Noble Hierarchs. He had three Hierarchs in total and that allowed him to start attacking and halted my meager offense.

I knew he had a Become Immense from a midgame Gitaxian Probe, so I played around it for as long as I could. Eventually we got to a board state where he had drawn a second pump spell so he could attack me with multiple Hierarchs and I wouldn’t have enough blockers to prevent both pump spells from killing me.

This was a very winnable match, but sometimes you don’t draw many relevant cards and your opponent beats you.

Record: 6-4

Round 11 - U/W Eldrazi

I mentioned earlier how good conceding before giving your opponent any information can be and that’s what ended up happening for game one of this match as well. When Eldrazi has an extremely fast start, you can tell whether you have a chance for victory or not based on the contents of your hand. With another mull to five, I knew my opponent had the win. He knew I played a Mutavault but that plus Gitaxian Probe were the only cards he saw.

Game two after you scoop and don’t let them know what your playing can be highly in your favor. Deciding how to sideboard with little to no information is extremely difficult and usually leads to free wins. That’s exactly what happened in this game.

I’ve used this technique a handful of times now in competitive events to a 100% win percentage in the following game. Then for game three, you can play an even match where both players know what each other is playing.

The third game I didn’t have much of a chance as I yet again mulliganed to five cards. We all know these Eldrazi decks mulligan frequently but my rate of going down on cards was high even for this deck. My opponent kept seven cards all three games and I was on 5, 6, and 5. That certainly makes it hard to win.

Record: 6-5

Round 12 - G/b Elves

Elves was a great deck choice for this weekend and it could be a great choice moving forward as well. There are a variety of versions. My opponent this round was playing the black version with Shaman of the Pack.

For game one, my sweet Gitaxian Probe showed its power again and let me know that my opponent had a decent hand while I was down to five reasonable cards. I was able to Dismember his first mana elf though to slow him down considerably.

I was in a good position to win this first game but that was mainly due to my opponent’s poor hits from Collected Company. Even so, he was able to draw Elvish Archdruid with six elves in play to kill me from twelve life. He did have some live draws to get him out of that situation but they all involve getting that lord into play so he wouldn’t lose his last two life.

Game two I was able to drastically slow him down with Chalice on one. Elves doesn’t concede to that play, but it does give you a couple turns to get your army going. He did have a Collected Company but it was too slow to get him back into the game.

The third game I had Gut Shot for his first mana guy and Dismember for the second and that opened a window for me to deploy my large threats. I believe Reality Smasher and his twin finished this game off for me.

Record: 7-5

Round 13 - G/w Elves

This match ended up playing out similar to the last one. Unfortunately for my opponent Chalice of the Void is a messed up Magic card and he was on the wrong side of that coin. He did find an answer to it in game one with Chord of Calling for Reclamation Sage, but by then it was too late for him to cast all the cards locked up in his hand.

Game two was a strange one. These decks typically have resilient mana bases because they get to play many basic lands. My opponent only had two Horizon Canopys with which to operate. He had a pretty good hand but when you are forced to take damage to cast every spell against an aggressive deck, it becomes difficult to win.

All of the elf decks are great against Eldrazi because for the most part they keep to themselves and just try to execute their game plan as well as possible. Moving forward I think Elves could be a good choice, but it will need tuning in the metagame post-banning.

Record: 8-5

Round 14 - Jund

To my surprise my opponent this round was playing Jund. I hadn’t seen this deck at all during the event but I was reminded that Abrupt Decay hitting Endless One is really good.

In game one, my opponent made this play twice while removing every other threat I played. I was able to slow him down with Damping Matrix to shut off his double Scavenging Ooze but I drew lots of lands and my opponent drew lots of removal spells.

In game two, we both flooded out but in that case I had Eye of Ugin to start getting threats every turn and eventually my opponent succumbed to my colorless onslaught. He was able to valiantly stand his ground with the help of Courser of Kruphix gaining him a bunch of life.

Game three was one of the most epic I’ve played in a long time. The other games were taking a bit longer than normal but we still had a decent amount of time left in the round. For this game, I kept a very controlling hand with double Dismember and double All is Dust. These spells let me get to the late game and draw my impactful cards like Batterskull and big Eldrazi.

Before we got to the late game though, I was able to ping my opponent down a bit with Mutavault and Blinkmoth Nexus. The Batterskull was able to muck up the ground once I was able to get my opponent to use his Kolaghan's Command that he reveled with a Courser of Kruphix in play.

Then they called turns and I thought we might end in a draw. He had double Tarmogoyf and the Courser to hold the ground and it was looking like I wasn’t going to have enough time to beat him.

I draw on turn four of turns and it’s Simian Spirit Guide. Initially I thought that was a terrible draw but after thinking for a moment, I saw the line. Get a mana with Guide and activate Blinkmoth Nexus then use the remaining five lands to equip the Batterskull to the creature land and swing for exactly five damage in the air. What an epic win!

Record: 9-5

Round 15 - Chord Combo

The last round of the day and it’s against another deck I haven’t played against yet. My opponent was a player willing to take risks and that made the match so interesting. Everything was going well for me and I had a decent setup of dudes attacking. Having drawn a combo piece naturally let him Chord for the other one though and with no removal, I was staring down infinite creatures and infinite life.

Game two, my opponent got to feel the wrath of All is Dust two turns in a row. I thought he might stabilize when he cast the second Archangel of Thune and another guy, but some endlessly large Endless Ones made him block for survival.

Game three my opponent tried to assemble the combo on turn five but luckily I had an answer. He puts the Archangel into play alongside his Spike Feeder. I say okay to let him proceed. He removes a counter from the Feeder and with the angel trigger on the stack, I Gut Shot his dude.

From there it wasn’t too difficult to attack for the win. A hasty Smasher forced him to block to survive and then the following turn I took down the win.

Record: 10-5

GP Detroit Wrap-Up

This GP was a ton of fun. I played against many tough opponents and there were many epic matches. It does seem clear from the results of all the Modern events that a banning is inevitable though. I really enjoyed playing this deck, but it is definitely too powerful with what else is going on in the metagame.

At this point, I’m interested to see exactly what gets banned and if Eldrazi can survive or not. If they ban both lands, I think the deck is dead, but if they only ban one, I think the deck will still be pretty good. I was able to 10-5 this GP with my version of the deck as well as take down an SCG IQ last weekend too.

As you can see, there are still many viable decks in Modern and they should all be options after we see what happens in April. I played against Elves, Jund, Loam, Chord Combo, Bogles, Infect, Zoo, Lantern, UWR Control, Merfolk and Affinity. All of these decks aren’t going anywhere once the format stabilizes.

Of the fifteen rounds I played against three of the same deck twice, but that leaves twelve different archetypes that I faced during this event. If you factor in the IQ, that would add another four separate archetypes to the group as well. Eldrazi is winning more than is healthy, but once it gets neutered the format should drift back into balance.

Wizards was doing some great public relations with their Church of Avacyn built in the GP hall and revealing new cards at various times throughout the event. I thought this was a great move on their part and I hope they continue it in the future.

That’s all for me today. What was your Eldrazi Winter experience like? Did you join up or were you building to beat the horde? Let me know in the comments. This format is one we’ll be talking about for a while. It definitely was an exciting time.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Stock Watch- Risen Executioner

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Risen Executioner exploded after the spoiling of Relentless Dead. The idea being that a zombie lord would fit well in a zombie deck. Risen Executioner basically quadrupled overnight.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Risen Executioner

This is a card that screams long-term casual value, though the speculative constructed inflation is surprising. The only time that Risen Executioner has seen constructed play this far has been in creature-light decks intent on using the recursive ability rather than the caring at all about being a zombie lord. Frankly, Risen Executioner is much more impressive in this role.

A four mana lord just isn't a great aggressive tool in 2016. If all we're doing is curving small zombies into Executioner, then I don't have much confidence in our deck. Sure, there are some neat recursive tools which can matter a lot against control decks, though what matters in creature decks is efficiency. If there were a sorcery that made two 2/2 zombies for three mana that might change my mind, but simply theory-crafting with what is known and what is actually expected I don't see Risen Executioner maintaining its new price for long.

I still like the card as a long-term position, though if you're able to get $3+ for them now I think you'll easily be able to sell and re-buy later at a profit. If Risen Executioner does end up seeing significant Standard player, then it stands to at least double again, though I am quite confident as of now that this is extremely unlikely to happen. The zombie deck would definitely need to be defined by what's on its curve below four, and while Relentless Dead is exciting it is exciting independent of being a zombie.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Winter is Ending: Report from GP Detroit

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The Grand Prix events at Detroit, Melbourne, and Bologna are over and done and the Eldrazi have been proven well beyond reasonable doubt to be utterly overpowered and definitively banworthy. Aaron Forsythe has all but decreed there will be a banning in April, and all that's left for us is to shift through the wreckage and prepare ourselves for the post-Eldrazi world.

Thermal Flux art

Detroit did not go well for me. I'd like to say I fought the good fight against our tyrannical overlords and came up short, but the truth is I ran so cold that I would have done poorly even without the Eldrazi warp. I was going to do my usual detailed tournament breakdown, but there's only so many times you can write "I drew my fourth consecutive land and conceded" and have it be interesting. Instead there will be a more general recap of my time in Detroit followed by my projected post-ban metagame. Hopefully we can all put this frustrating chapter of Magic history to rest and look to a far more interesting future.

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Grand Prix Detroit

I prepared extensively for the GP, both in paper and online. I knew that against Eldrazi I could out-tempo or outright stop (via Spreading Seas) the "Eldrazi draw" and if they were slower than Merfolk could simply swarm them for the win. UW and Colorless were a good matchups but I knew GR would be hard thanks to Kozilek's Return. One thing I found was that four Spreading Seas and one Sea's Claim were really all I wanted, since boarding in more Claims left me with either too little interaction or threats against Eldrazi and Claim is generally bad against the rest of the field. This ultimately led me to registering this list:

UW Merfolk by David Ernenwein (GP Detroit March 5, 2016)

Creatures

4 Cursecatcher
4 Silvergill Adept
4 Lord of Atlantis
4 Master of the Pearl Trident
4 Harbinger of the Tides
3 Merrow Reejerey
2 Master of Waves

Aritfacts

4 Aether Vial

Enchantments

1 Sea's Claim
4 Spreading Seas

Instants

4 Path to Exile
2 Echoing Truth

Lands

8 Island
4 Wanderwine Hub
4 Seachrome Coast
4 Mutavault

Sideboard

3 Stony Silence
2 Hurkyls Recall
2 Rest in Peace
2 Burrenton Forge-Tender
1 Echoing Truth
1 Disenchant
2 Meddling Mage
2 Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

I had scouted the field at the Friday night Last Chance Qualifiers and had come to the conclusion that Lantern Control and Living End would be very popular. With the increased use of Ensnaring Bridge and Ghostly Prison against Eldrazi, I wanted extra answers for non-creature permanents. Eldrazi demanded I play an additional Echoing Truth rather than two Disenchants.

The Tournament

Not that any of that ever came up for me. After my two byes I went 2-4 drop, beating Burn Whipflareand BW Tokens and losing to Blue Moon, Affinity, GR Eldrazi, and UW Eldrazi. Blue Moon and Affinity were repectively my first and last losses and both opponents drew so well, particularly in Game Two, that I would have had to run hotter than the sun to beat them. As it was, I spent the weekend standing outside in my boxers in the Antarctic winter and just got crushed when my reasonable keeps failed to develop and they had the right answers at the right time every time. I drew half my lands both games against Blue Moon after having every threat I played one-for-oned. Affinity had multiple Master of Etheriums and Cranial Platings both games, and a devastating Whipflare Game Two. I wonder what it's like to have everything, it seems nice.

I beat Tokens mostly because my opponent had lots of discard and removal but no threats. I beat Burn thanks to his poor draws more than anything (he had eight lands in play, had fetched four times, was Pathed once,  and three more in hand when he died game two). The only interesting play was in Game Two against Burn where I declined to play a creature turn two after he left up Searing Blaze mana. He played his third land and passed back, which I took to mean he only had Searing Blazes in hand at that point (I was right). I wait and just pass for multiple turns, hoping for him to run out of lands but that never happens so I use flashed Harbingers to draw out the Blazes before using Reejereys to dump my hand in one turn.

My Eldrazi matches were far more interesting. Both times, my opponents had great hands to Kozilek's Returnmy mediocre Game One to crush me, and in both Game Twos I had multiple Seas and plenty of gas to crush them, despite my GR opponent using Blasphemous Act twice. In game three against GR, he plays no early spells so I carefully manage my threats to play around sweepers until I have enough mana to tempt him with a lord, a Cursecatcher and two Adepts. I also have a Vial and another lord for when he goes for Kozilek's Return and would not have been able to cast Act or World Breaker next turn. He does have Return, and also Dismember for my response lord, and I can never rebuild because, once again, I started flooding out after playing all my gas. I saw no Seas (or a card that I would have taken out for an additional Claim) that game so he's free to crush me with Eye of Ugin.

Game Three against UW was closer. I have Claim and Seas but he never plays an Eldrazi land. Instead, he plays a very fair game and had to tap the correct amount of lands to cast his spells. Novel, I know. I end up using my Seas on his Hallowed Fountain so his only source of white is Adarkar Wastes, which nets me an extra four damage. Unfortunately, I'm flooding and he wins off a topdecked Reality Smasher and a sandbagged Path to Exile when I cannot kill him when he tapped out the previous turn. I never had a reasonable target for the Claim, and had it been the Master of Waves I took out for it I probably win that game.

tendo ice bridgeHowever, in retrospect, I could have Claimed his Tendo Ice Bridge early on, which meant that he would have had to pay an extra two life for his Dismember and thus lost. That said, there was no way for me to know at the time it would have mattered, and if he had ever gotten out Eye or Temple I would have been in serious trouble. That doesn't mean that it isn't a frustrating thought.

Though I'm out, I stick around partially to see if some Denver friends make it in (only two do out of four) and partially to locate Jordan, via his Round 9 pairings, and get to watch as he narrowly (from where I was standing anyway, he'll tell you if it actually was) loses to Affinity in three. The advantage of never bothering to upload a profile picture is the look on correspondents faces when you ambush them and introduce yourself. That done, we have time for a few games before food calls him away.

I sign up for the Sunday Super Series but it goes even worse. I flood to death my first two matches and then lose a narrow race to Infect in three games, so I take the hint and stop playing. Sometimes you just run poorly and there's nothing you can do about it. Variance is part of the game and when it's not on your side there's nothing you can do. Accept it and move on, even when it is a bitter pill.

Finding Forsythe

Part of my reason for going in the first place was to question Aaron Forsythe about Eldrazi and Modern in general, but if he was there before Sunday, I certainly never saw him. Even on Sunday he was hard to find, which is surprising considering he's a white-haired giant in a maroon shirt.Burning Inquiry I eventually tracked him down when he was being interviewed by Brian David-Marshall, intending to ambush him once he was done. Instead, he made a beeline for some pros he knew that were closer to him than I was, and I didn't get a chance to talk to him until he was back at the gunslinging table. That's where I got crushed by his Chord deck thanks to drawing all four Aether Vials instead of Spreading Seas. Like I said: colder than the Antarctic, my weekend. Unfortunately, there was a line so I couldn't take as much time to question him as I would have liked, and got sidetracked talking to him about why I don't play Standard (reasons which he either has heard a lot before, or he also feels like I do because he preempted all my conclusions about the past several sets with my conclusions), but I did get one clear and unequivocal answer from him: Wizards was just as surprised as we were by Eldrazi's success, and are deeply disappointed with how this has played out. I asked him directly if they were surprised and he immediately said yes, so you can take off your tinfoil hats: this was never expected or desired by Wizards.

Now, going off what I overheard from his other conversations, I believe that we can expect to see a lot of changes coming down the pipe from Wizards. Mr. Forsythe was quizzed about a wide range of topics and, while he was playing his cards close to chest, he repeatedly said, "Everything is up for consideration, including <that>." I think it's safe to conclude that if you're unhappy for whatever reason, Wizards has heard that complaint already. Once this disaster is cleaned up, they will be talking about said complaint in the near future. What exactly that means I don't know, but it's interesting to speculate about. He did elaborate a bit on why they didn't extensively test Modern like they do Standard (most of which boils down to "there are too many cards in the pool"), but they will be watching more carefully for problems from wonky combos or fast mana. Particularly lands that have never previously seen play. Also, if you're frustrated with the Wizards website, so is Wizards' R&D Director, though it seems their internal site is worse.

From my own deductions and Forsythe's on camera/Twitter statements, there will be an Eldrazi ban in April and Wizards will take action to (try and) prevent this from happening in the future. This is unlikely to include testing during design and development, since they don't have the resources (apparently), but they will reevaluate their current procedures and adopt some new strategy for managing Modern. I don't think even they know what it is yet, so keep your eyes peeled for any indication of where they're going

Where Do We Go From Here

Anyway, lets stop talking about the past and start talking about the future. Eldrazi will be getting swatted down and this will bring the metagame back to something approaching normalcy. The question now is what will that normalcy look like. Splinter Twin's  pillar was replaced by an Eldrazi monolith and we don't have a clear indication of what the metagame is "supposed" to look like anymore. Regionals is the closest we have and, even there, the Eldrazi were starting to stir. However, from looking around the Sunday Super Series players and looking back on the Regionals results, I have a pretty good guess. I'm not saying that this will be "the metagame," but it will be where "the metagame" starts to form come April 8 ceteris paribus.

Chord of CallingIf you're going to start anywhere then start with Jeff Hoogland. I saw a lot of Kiki-Chord both in the Grand Prix and the Sunday Series and it cracked a lot of Top 8's looking back at Regionals. It's not hard to see why: tutoring is inherently powerful and the Toolbox archetype has a long and storied pedigree. Yes, the deck can be hard to play, but in the hands of its master it is a proven win machine. The work you put in will be paid back and with many players switching to the deck after Hoogland's run at Louisville, we can expect to see a lot them stick with the strategy into the foreseeable future. In my experience, the deck is very strong against aggro and midrange thanks to its many walls, lifegaining creatures, and resiliency to discard. It's weak to sweepers and pilot error. This is a very powerful strategy, but I expect that, like Amulet Bloom, it will take some time for its metagame shares to reflect this fact.

Living EndAfter Chord, I would look to Living End. Travis Woo's masterpiece has always been a reasonable, if vulnerable, choice in Modern. With many players heeding advice to use it against Eldrazi, I would plan to see a lot of it in the coming months (players hate to waste their investments). I saw plenty of the deck at the LCQs and in the GP, which is why I kept the two Rest In Peace copies in my sideboard. Despite its vulnerability to graveyard hate, Living End is extremely well-positioned, especially if the metagame is aggro-heavy. Don't just pick it up for that reason though. The deck is surprisingly hard to play correctly, with lots of different sequencing and timing decisions that can have a large impact on a game. If you're going to walk the undead path, commit to it and find a decent anti-board plan to address your (well-known) weakness.

collected companyAs much as I hate to say it, Abzan Company is the third place to start your post-Eldrazi testing. I've played against this deck a lot (it was very popular in my area last summer) and I know that as (potentially) powerful as it is, it is equally inconsistent. You can generate massive boards of walls and mana dorks and do nothing until you die as often as you dance around removal before gaining infinite life and a concession. I wouldn't play the deck, but it WAS the only deck to beat the Eldrazi over the GP weekend, so I won't blame you if you do. Work on improving your mulliganing and the deck's internal consistency if you're going to put time in and be wary of sweepers.

I expect usual Modern suspects (Jund, Burn, Affinity, Infect, etc) will still be present, but if you're a Modern player then you should already be ready for them. The one I expect to see with the most converts is GR Tron, not because it will gain anything (the Eldrazi sit at awkward places on Tron's curve) but because Eldrazi players will adopt it, especially if Eldrazi Temple is banned. GR Eldrazi frequently played out like a more resilient if slower Tron so its pilots will find the transition easy, and it's the only place that World Breaker and Kozilek's Return have a reasonable home. Combine with All is Dust for a behemoth of a control deck. Don't skimp on the Fulminator Mages.

The End is Nigh

In a month, the reign of the Eldrazi will come to an end and we'll look back with relief on Modern making it through this bleak GP season. Personally, I'll just be glad to remove Sea's Claim from my deck and go back to playing real cards. Not that I'll be playing Merfolk: the deck needs some time on ice to think about its poor performance (to give me half my lands in one game is forgivable; three games in a row is deliberate). I also don't think it's where I want to be against Kiki-Chord and Tron. The former has too many walls for aggro and Return is a stupid card in the other. Where do I want to be? Tune in next week to find out.

Insider: Mastering PucaTrade – Leveraging the Reserved List

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Editor's note: This article advocates exploiting a flaw in the PucaTrade system to sell spiking cards before buyers have a chance to remove them from their Want List. While awareness of this flaw is important, exploiting it for gain is controversial and may be unethical. Quiet Speculation does not endorse this activity.

Ultimately, it will be up to PucaTrade themselves to remedy this loophole. In the meantime, readers must weigh their own ethical considerations regarding this matter.

Welcome to another in a series of articles on advanced PucaTrade techniques. Today we're going to learn about real world examples regarding cards that spike suddenly, plateau, then crater---and how best to position yourself on PucaTrade to take advantage.

Reserved List Cards Taking Crazy Pills

It's a volatile time for Reserved List cards. We all know the ABU Duals have been spiking hard the last few years, with no end in sight. Recently, though, with signals from Wizards that the Reserved List isn't going anywhere, even obscure cards that might not see play except in casual formats are climbing up the charts.

Numerous enterprising fools are buying up all available copies of cards like Meditate, hoping for a big spike so they can empty their dollar boxes. You're a Quiet Speculation Insider, so you are not an enterprising fool, but you can take advantage of these artificial spikes all the same.

Peacekeeper, Meditate and Scorched Ruins

Take a look at a card like Peacekeeper. This card is now up huge percentage points in the past few days, simply by virtue of being on the Reserved List. It has the side benefit of being a terrific Commander card, as it stops attacks altogether. There are likely numerous Commander players on PucaTrade who are looking for Peacekeeper, and a quick scan of the site reveals four people looking for one as of March 1.

Peacekeeper on PucaTrade
Peacekeeper on PucaTrade

Note that by March 2, all four of these wants were filled by other traders. This could have been you, if you were paying attention!

So what was once a rare card that you might throw in to a PucaTrade to get it out of your box can now be shipped to someone for 1169 PucaPoints (the equivalent of $12), but only for the few days the card is spiking. There's nothing unethical about this. You're not creating the spike yourself, just keeping a savvy eye on volatile cards on an unchanging Reserved List.

The aforementioned Meditate has already started crashing down, but is still worth 1297 PucaPoints. However, nobody with points has it on their Want List. So you've got to get in quicker than that. Similarly, Scorched Ruins is stuck at 1187 PucaPoints, but nobody has it on their Want List. These are cards that were once worth less than a dollar.

Note that someone might add one of these cards to their Want List at any time, but someone else will fulfill the trade in a matter of seconds unless you use a tool like Pucauto.

What Else Might Spike on the Reserved List?

Here are a few Reserved List cards that are fun in casual formats and could see a serious spike as market manipulators explore the dark depths of cards that will never be reprinted.

Mirage

Bazaar of Wonders
Forsaken Wastes
Hall of Gemstone

Visions

City of Solitude
Equipoise
Sands of Time

Weatherlight

Liege of the Hollows
Lotus Vale
Pendrell Mists

Tempest

Apocalypse
Recycle
Sarcomancy

Stronghold

Crovax the Cursed
Silver Wyvern
Volrath's Stronghold

Exodus

Ertai, Wizard Adept
Hatred
Oath of Ghouls

Urza's Saga

Barrin, Master Wizard
Lifeline
Temporal Aperture

Urza's Legacy

Radiant, Archangel
Ring of Gix
Second Chance

Urza's Destiny

Donate
Opalescence
Powder Keg

Setting Up Pricing Alerts

Setting up pricing alerts is a good way to track cards like this that might present short windows of opportunity. This way we'll receive an email whenever one starts to rise, and can start acquiring it in PucaTrade to turn around and ship them to people when the card peaks.

One site that does this for free is MTGGoldfish. Register the free account, add Reserved List cards to your collection, and click on Price Alerts. From there, set up a pricing threshold. Then when the card hits that number, you'll get an e-mail, which signals that it's time to act.

Pricing Alerts on MTGGoldfish
Pricing Alerts on MTGGoldfish

Everyone's Happy

The Reserved List is going to cause some old cards to seesaw around the pricing table, but players that have the points on PucaTrade will want these cards regardless. Collecting them when they're low and shipping them out at their peak is a great way to build up PucaPoints for something you really want.

Insider: MTGO Market Report for March 9th, 2016

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a "Trade of the Week" section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of March 7th, 2016. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Mar7

Flashback Draft of the Week

9th Edition draft will be with us for a week, so it's another opportunity for players to pick up cards like Blood Moon, the Urza lands (known as the Tron lands) and the original Ice Age cycle of allied pain lands and Apocalypse cycle of opposing-colour pain lands. Adarkar Wastes in particular is one not to let slip through your fingertips as it has recently spiked to over 10 tix due to its use in Modern Eldrazi decks.

This is a draft format which I have familiarity with. It's very fun, with cheap removal and high-impact creatures, as well as many ways to gain card advantage. Prioritize good removal and fliers, and you'll be well on your way to a solid draft deck.

Blue's card drawing and selection is exceptional with Sift and Sleight of Hand at common and then some real powerhouses at uncommon with Thieving Magpie, Thought Courier and the windmill slam first pick, the draw-four sorcery of Tidings.

Like most older sets, green is typically underwhelming in power level. Llanowar Elves and Rampant Growth are two powerful cards to accelerate your deck, but the typical large creatures tend to be underwhelming and relatively fragile due to the common removal spells and tappers, as well as stuff like Drudge Skeleton that can effectively gum up the ground.

Green can be paired with red in an aggressive shell to some success. Just be sure to pack cards like Panic Attack and Threaten in order to break through a ground stall. Red also brings Flame Wave and Blaze at uncommon for finishers. Alternatively, green has two uncommon landwalkers in Anaconda and River Bear that do a lot of work against two of the best colours in the format, black and blue.

White is also a top notch colour in the format, but usually seeks to control the board with small utility creatures, backed up by targeted removal such as Pacifism and Vengeance. Glorious Anthem is a fantastic reason to get into white and combines very well with what this colour wants to be doing in this format.

In general, try to be in blue or black as these are the two best colours of the format in terms of power level. White and red occupy the mid tier, with green at the bottom. A lot of the classic colour pairs and strategies are viable, and some high-cost cards like Aladdin's Ring and Plague Wind should find their way into your deck, if not out of your sideboard.

Try to stick to two colours, but splashing a third colour is not hard for blue due to their card drawing and selection. Typically green doesn't operate well as a core colour due to the low power level of their cards, so don't be too tempted to try a multi-colour deck based around green.

Modern

During the Top 8 of Grand Prix Detroit this past weekend, Brian David Marshall from the coverage team did a live interview with Aaron Forsythe on the state of Modern and the impact of the Eldrazi. Forsythe is the director of Research and Development for Magic at Wizards of the Coast (WoTC), so any banned and restricted announcement has to be approved by him.

His message was that the Eldrazi were over-represented in the Modern metagame and something was going to be done about it in time for the Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) banned and restricted announcement. He also said the goal would be to keep Eldrazi builds competitive in Modern.

This suggests that WoTC feels that Eldrazi is more akin to something like Jund in Modern, where problematic cards push a deck over the top in terms of power level. Two rounds of bannings saw Bloodbraid Elf and Deathrite Shaman get the axe for that archetype.

Unfortunately this is not a great precedent to draw any inference from as the cards banned were creatures that appeared ubiquitously in that archetype. One might conclude that either one or more of Thought-Knot Seer, Reality Smasher, Eldrazi Mimic and Endless One could be banned. This would be a mistake.

There are precious few lands that accelerate your mana development in Modern. Outside of the Tron lands, which require effort to assemble and give no benefit during the turns before all three are assembled, the Eldrazi decks gets access to two lands that accelerate your mana with no effort. The true power of the deck comes from Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple.

These lands are akin to the artifact lands which powered Affinity decks of yore. Notably, five out of six of the artifact lands have been on the Modern ban list since the inception of the format. This is the correct comparison to make, and why many have been calling for the banning of these lands. This inference combined with Forsythe's comments over the weekend means we should expect one of the lands to be banned.

Standard

The introduction of sealed deck leagues featuring Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) and Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) has been a huge success with over 4000 active players. This is a substantial increase in the product flowing into the MTGO economy and the prices on BFZ and OGW sets reflect this change, with OGW falling 17% this week.

Look for this trend to continue up to the release of SOI. Players and speculators who have been holding off buying cards from BFZ and OGW will be rewarded with the lowest set prices in the coming weeks.

Fate Reforged (FRF) and Khans of Tarkir (KTK) continue their descent as rotation nears. Typically the bottom will come during SOI release events, followed by period of flat prices. Paper prices usually bottom in the months after rotation. Once paper prices turn upward, then digital prices will follow.

What this means for speculators and players is that cards from these sets are not yet on sale and the short-term prospects are bleak. It's time to build up tix in your portfolio in anticipation of when cards from these sets will be on sale in April.

Elsewhere, Dragons of Tarkir (DTK) and Magic Origins (ORI) are at a mid-season peak. Standard rotating in April will shake up relative valuations for cards from these two sets. Value will flow from cards that become less played to cards that are played more often, but further gains in set prices are difficult to imagine. Both DTK and ORI have more downside risk than upside as we head into April.

Standard Boosters

BFZ boosters have seen a boost from the introduction of sealed deck leagues and are now sitting at over 3.8 tix. Players and speculators should be looking to sell their stock of BFZ boosters over the coming weeks. Longer-term, these will hit 4 tix, but the short-term boost from leagues combined with the pending release of SOI should encourage most people to take advantage of this situation in order to increase liquidity over the next few weeks.

FRF and KTK boosters have suffered as a result of this reintroduction of leagues. Players and speculators should look to sell all of these boosters over the next two or three weeks. The gains on these are now baked in and getting closer to the release of SOI will introduce greater downside risk.

After FRF and KTK rotate out of Standard and are no longer usable in draft, the value of the boosters will sink alongside the value of the cards they contain. Holding these closer to April is an invitation for further losses.

Trade of the Week

As usual, the portfolio is available at this link. This week I picked up Linvala, the Preserver from OGW.

Although casual demand is quite small on MTGO, there are cards that attract higher prices and higher price floors due to their nature. Angels are usually a pretty good bet, and mythic ones don't often fall below 1 tix while they are in Standard. This gives us a strong sense of safety when considering Linvala as a spec target. We are unlikely to lose much at this price level.

On the upside, Linvala is objectively powerful and not played in Standard. If there was any prospect of future play in Standard, then this would give us a hint at the upside.

I have no idea what Standard will look like in April, but I do know that the three- and four-colour mana bases so prevalent right now will be impossible to achieve without a much higher cost. And with many of the powerful wedge cards rotating along with the fetch lands, the reasons to stretch your mana base will also be less compelling.

Add it all up, and a retreat to mono- or two-colour strategies is a strong possibility. Any card with two of the same colour of mana in its casting cost should be considered carefully in light of the pending Standard rotation. Value-conscious speculators should be looking to cards like this that are underplayed at the moment, and Linvala certainly fits the bill.

Modern Metagame Breakdown: 2/5/16 – 3/6/2016

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27 days left. April 4 is literally highlighted on my desk calendar, with a big red X drawn through a little Eldrazi caricature in the "Appointments" space. I'm not playing a single turn of sanctioned Modern until then, a resolution I believe many Modern players share. Who wants to even be at the same table as an Eye or Temple when we could be testing Shadows Over Innistrad spoilers instead? Of course, there are some brave souls who will still sleeve up decks and venture into Modern's ruins. There will also be Eldrazi co-conspirators looking to profit from Modern's best deck before the banhammer falls. For these players, and for Modern aficionados who are as fascinated (i.e. horrified) with this metagame as I am, I'm publishing this breakdown to commemorate the past month. Don't think of it as a monument to Eldrazi glory. Consider it a cautionary tale of a Tier 0 nightmare.

Kozileks Return banner

The last time we did a formal metagame breakdown was on January 6, covering the 12/1 through 12/31 period of the previous month. Since then, I've written more than half-a-dozen pieces on the Eldrazi, chronicling their march from format upstarts to Modern tyrants. With the rubble still smoking from Grand Prix weekend, we now have enough events and datapoints to do our full breakdown in the spirit of that December update. As I've said before, the metagame isn't literally 100% Eldrazi, even if it feels that way at every turn. If you do play Modern between now and the effective date of the April 4 banlist announcement, you'll need this breakdown to understand the different Tier 1, Tier 2, and Tier 3 contenders still prowling around Modern's wreckage. Also, to rubberneck at the disaster area left in the Tier 0 Eldrazi's wake.

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Tier 0 Decks

I have no idea how long I'll be writing Magic articles, but I hope this is the first and last time I ever have to include a "Tier 0" section in a metagame breakdown. I'd like to think I'm a reasonable fellow who is wary of hype, avoids overstatement, and develops opinions based on careful consideration of multiple sources. I'll let this site and my articles testify to that. So if Modern Nexus is putting the Editor In Chief Stamp of Approval on a Tier 0 classification, you know it's gotta be bad. We're not just talking Deathrite Shaman bad. I don't even know if I would have classified that one as a Tier 0 deck at the time. But the Eldrazi aren't just "bad." They're Caw Blade bad. 2005 Affinity bad. Meta Knight in Super Smash Bros. Brawl bad.

Eldrazi TempleThanks to these Eldrazi jerks, I've temporarily updated our Top Decks page to include a Tier 0 category. It's an inclusion I don't take lightly. Quantitatively, I'm defining a Tier 0 deck as a strategy whose metagame share exceeds the metagame share of all the Tier 1 decks combined. We're way over that today, with Eldrazi roaring into Tier Broken on a 34.9% share as compared to the collective 25.4% of Tier 1. We're at just under 90 paper events and 55 on MTGO, comprising over 1,200 decklists and including five major events (the Pro Tour, StarCityGames' Louisville Open, and the Grand Prix Three). If a deck can sustain those kind of numbers in a dataset that large, call me impressed and call that baby Tier 0. Eldrazi Temple's flavor text has never seemed more prophetic.

Qualitatively speaking, a Tier 0 isn't just a deck you should beat, a strategy you can take to a Top 8, or an opponent you must prepare for. It's a deck you must beat if you want to be competitive. It's a strategy that will show up in the Top 8, often in multiples. It's the opponent you are preparing for. It's everywhere, it's everything, and it's the nightmare of every serious Constructed player (except the grinders who now know exactly what to play as they rake in those Pro Points) and Wizards staff member. AKA, it's Eldrazi in a nutshell.

Eldrazi hardly needed the introduction, but I wanted to present that reasoning to honor the evidence-driven approach you have come to expect from Modern Nexus. So, without further ado, here's the monster, the monopoly, and the monolithic Modern force itself: Eldrazi.

Tier 0: 2/5/16 - 3/6/16

DeckOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
Eldrazi34.9%39.3%27.6%38%

Don't lie. You're just a little bit awed by those numbers, and I don't blame you. Not even Modern's most historically broken decks reached these levels, and it's hard to not be impressed at a deck that is 40% of MTGO and Grand Prix Day 2s. It even hit 47% at Detroit! With 75% representation in the Top 8! For the most part, I've said all there is to say on this comically broken deck, so I'll just leave these stats here for readers to gawk at.

If you're foraying into hostile Eldrazi lands this next month, you're braver (or more unscrupulous, you Eldrazi allies you) than I am. You'll also need to know exactly which Eldrazi variants are on top and what you need to prepare for. Don't want to read another line of Eldrazi statistics? Here's the summary: UW is tentacles ahead of the rest, with RG and Colorless next in line. Curious about where the rest of them fall? Here's the breakdown from the last month to help you figure out which Eldrazi variants you need to try beating and/or which Eldrazi deck you should play yourself (none: just say no). All the numbers are expressed as percentages of the total Eldrazi share, and the Day 2 numbers are adjusted according to each event's attendance.

Top Eldrazi Color Pairings

Eldrazi ColorOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
UW32.6%18.2%25.1%54.4%
Colorless19.6%20.2%29.1%9.4%
RG18.9%24.7%13.1%18.9%
UR15.7%19.2%19.1%8.9%
UG2.1%3%2%1.1%
Bant1.8%1%1.5%2.8%
Urzatron1.6%0.5%2%2.2%
UB1%0.5%2%0.6%
Mono Black1%0.5%2.5%0%

In case you haven't gotten your fill of zany Eldrazi iterations, here are those with less than a 1% overall share in the Eldrazi metagame.

[su_spoiler title="The Other Eldrazi" style="fancy" icon="arrow"]

Other Eldrazi Color Pairings

Eldrazi ColorOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
WR0.8%2.5%0%0%
BW0.7%1%1%0%
GW0.7%1.5%0%0.6%
BG0.5%1.5%0%0%
BR0.5%1.5%0%0%
Jund0.5%1%0.5%0%
Temur0.4%0%0.5%0.6%
RB0.3%1%0%0%
RW0.3%1%0%0%
Mono Red0.3%0%1%0%
Esper0.2%0%0%0.6%
Mono Green0.2%0.5%0%0%
Mono Blue0.2%0.5%0%0%
Jeskai0.2%0%0.5%0%
Tron0.0%0%0%0%

[/su_spoiler]

Takeaway: you can play all kinds of colors in Modern... as long as they come in Eldrazi. They even represent those fabled blue decks Moderners and Wizards have been hunting for all this time. More seriously, with UW variants at the front of the Eldrazi pack, you can expect a healthy degree of Worship, Path to Exile, Stony Silence, and Disenchant in most contests against the Tier 0 deck. Not to mention late-game grind via Eldrazi Displacer. This affects what answers Eldrazi Displaceryou play (don't bank too heavily on Ensnaring Bridge and Worship yourself), and what threats you deploy (between Path and Dismember, the deck has substantial removal). RG offers similar issues, with Ancient Grudge and World Breaker to clean up the most problematic permanents you'll encounter, and Lightning Bolt and Kozilek's Return to augment your interaction suite.

I guarantee you I'm as Eldrazied out as you are (honestly, probably more), so I'm calling it quits on Tier 0. Have fun wielding the deck while you can, and good luck to those trying to beat this monstrosity in the next few weeks. You can do it (see Tier 1 for viable options), but even the anti-decks aren't awesome and you're likely to still encounter players who missed the Eldrazi memo and are playing Modern screwballs like Jund, RG Tron, and Naya Company. Weirdos. Goodbye and good riddance to Tier 0, and may it be the last time we see it in these articles.

Tier 1 Decks

As Eldrazi winter nears its inevitable conclusion, we pause to reflect on the remnants of the once glorious Tier 1. All that remains are metagame calls which can either win under the Eldrazi or try to fight them head on, while also maintaining some semblance of viability against the rest of Modern. We can add this to our list of Tier 0 format characteristics: most of the Tier 1 decks, or in this case, all of them, have bent to the Tier 0 deck's inescapable gravity. Don't get me wrong: I love cascading into Living End as much as the next fellow (although I prefer me some Restore Balance action). But this deck has no business being a Tier 1 strategy and, when it is, the metagame is horribly out of balance.

Here's what's left of Tier 1 following the Eldrazi apocalypse. Tier 1 decks normally represent the format's decks-to-beat, ones you need to sideboard against and ones you can reasonably expect to triumph at the top tables. That's still true today, but all warped around the Tier 0 deck and still barely managing to claw their way into contention at the metagame level.

Tier 1: 2/5/16 - 3/6/16

DeckOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
Affinity8.9%9.1%8.9%8.8%
Abzan Company5.8%3.8%6.2%7.4%
Burn3.8%2.8%4.8%3.7%
Infect3.8%3.4%3.6%4.3%
Living End3.2%4%2.2%3.4%

No Jund and no Abzan. No Snapcaster Mage. No Tron. Not even Merfolk held on in the end. Astute metagame analysts like our readers would be able to see this Tier 1 table alone with zero context and know the rest of the metagame was horribly busted. Jordan and I have been writing about proverbial canaries in the coal mine, and Tier 1 is full of them, both in what's not there and what remains.

collected companyOf the decks still clinging to their Tier 1 footholds, Abzan Company is the one I would play if I absolutely had to compete in Modern this next month. It's enjoyed a huge surge in popularity across all Magic venues, winning Grand Prix Detroit and seeing a consistent increase from week to week since February 5. I identified Abzan Company as an excellent anti-Eldrazi option in the immediate aftermath of Pro Tour Oath, and although it wasn't nearly enough to stop Eldrazi at the format-wide level, Collected Company has flipped many players into respectable finishes. Abzan Company is proactive enough to punish oddball decks, is preboarded against two of the three linear Tier options, and accommodates a toolbox approach which guarantees bullets in any local metagame. Of course, the deck also has natural game against Eldrazi, which further cements it as my deck-of-choice for the next month. That is, if I'd be playing competitive Modern which I sure won't.

Living EndAffinity, Burn, and Infect linger around Tier 1 because they have the best ratio of speed to consistency to resilience of the format's linear decks. Even Eldrazi stumbles against certain starts for Modern's fastest decks! Affinity really suffers against the UW and RG Eldrazi frontrunners, as do Burn and Infect against Abzan Company. That said, these decks have enough raw power to overcome any strategic and contextual shortcomings, which has kept them in Tier 1 even during Eldrazi Winter and keeps them viable through March. As for Living End, it's a clear metagame call that numerous players and pros identified as a strong Eldrazi-slayer following Pro Tour Oath. It's also only strong against these current Eldrazi versions, and only because those decks mostly choose to ignore it; Chalice of the Void and Rest In Peace change the math in the matchup. Also, we saw Living End lose multiple times in high-stakes finals over the Grand Prix Weekend, so it's clearly the case of an anti-deck which is still losing to the big bad Tier 0 guy.

Again, don't be too intimidated by Tier 0 to avoid Tier 1 decks altogether. Just because these decks can't stop Eldrazi at the format level, doesn't mean experienced pilots can't wield them to strong, personal finishes. It also doesn't mean you can't pick them up to exploit unprepared players in the next month. Just remember the Eldrazi (as if you could forget) and remember the anti-Eldrazi splash damage (much easier to forget: don't play decks soft to Eldrazi hate!), and the Tier 1 decks can be excellent choices as we hunker down for April 4.

Tier 2 Decks

If Tier 0 and Tier 1 have you feeling down, then worry no longer, because Tier 2 is here to give you a healthy dose of optimism. We're up to 12 Tier 2 decks again, a healthy number that suggests a much wider format than we are actually in. There are still a lot of canaries in our Tier 2 mine: Lantern Control has greater share than Abzan, Jund/Abzan/Tron/Merfolk are all in Tier 2, and every blue-based, Snapcaster Mage strategy is down here as well. These red flags aside, Tier 2 actually appears quite diverse, with a healthy mix of archetypes, colors, strategies, and even some less familiar faces we don't often see in the Tier 2 ranks: look at UW Control sitting pretty atop the tier!

As per the Top Decks definitions, Tier 2 decks are competitive options with reasonable chances of tournament success, but not ones you need to sideboard or test against. You'll definitely want to know how they work (e.g. see turn one Blackcleave Cliffs into Faithless Looting discarding Desperate Ritual? Keep up countermagic/removal mana), but you don't need to expect to play these decks in every round.

Tier 2: 2/5/16 - 3/6/16

DeckOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
UW Control3%2.6%2.1%4.4%
Merfolk2.9%2.4%3.9%2.5%
Jund2.9%2.6%3.6%2.4%
RG Tron2.1%1.2%3.5%1.5%
Elves1.6%0.2%2.2%2.3%
Scapeshift1.5%0.6%1.1%2.8%
Lantern Control1.5%1.8%1.2%1.4%
Griselbrand1.3%0.6%1.7%1.7%
Blue Moon1.2%1.4%0.8%1.3%
Ad Nauseam1.1%1.2%1.4%0.7%
Abzan1.1%1.2%1.2%0.9%
Kiki Chord1%1%1.8%0.2%

We've already touched on some broader themes in Tier 2. It's full of decks that should probably be Tier 1, and it includes a few decks that should probably be Tier 3. As much as I love Lantern Control (fun fact: I did a ton of Lantern testing about 2-3 years ago on the MTGSalvation thread that started the strategy), this deck shouldn't be Tier 2 material in a Lantern of Insightnormal metagame. BGx Midrange, and other matchups, should keep it down. Its presence here, along with the decline of the Tier 1 mainstays, further point to fundamental metagame imbalance throughout Modern. More positively, I'm excited to see UW Control, Scapeshift, and Blue Moon getting by in this Eldrazified format. UW Control is clearly benefiting from a decent Eldrazi matchup, but this still points to broader relevance we might not have expected from Modern's remaining blue decks.

Under normal circumstances, I'd vouch for any Tier 2 deck in a competitive setting. We are far from normal today, folks, so we need to approach Tier 2 with a bit of caution. I've seen most of these decks get wrecked by the Eldrazi at one time or another, and for every example of a Tier 2 success story we can find two more Tier 2 failures. None of these decks made the transition to Tier 1 in this volatile time period, despite Living End and Abzan Company making the jump. This all suggests these decks struggle with either bad Eldrazi matchups, bad matchups against the anti-Eldrazi decks and technology, and/or some internal barrier to their Modern success in any metagame. Tron is an example of decks in the first category: UW Eldrazi's aggressive starts and Path to Exiles are basically unbeatable. Merfolk is a great example of the second, one that both David and Michael Majors have already written about at length. As for the third, we might find Elves or Griselbrand decks, which have been around for months but still struggle with removal/sweeper vulnerabilities and internal inconsistency.

Keep these warnings in mind when considering Tier 2 decks. In general, stick with decks you've already mastered (or at least have experience with), and emphasize improving your Eldrazi matchup.

Tier 3 Deck

We'll close our February metagame breakdown with Tier 3, the fringe decks that have become even more fringe in the polarized, Tier 0 Modern environment. We might be hesitant to even use our Top Decks definition here, because these decks feel even less viable today than they are in normal metagame circumstances. On the other hand, for a deck to stay Tier 3 in this current climate, I suspect there's something there which have allowed at least a few players to shine. Use good judgment when picking these context-dependent decks and remember to choose your venue wisely. Some of these are exploiting weaknesses on MTGO. Others are better in paper. Check the deck percentages by column to try to identify where a Tier 3 deck is likely to succeed.

Tier 3: 2/5/16 - 3/6/16

DeckOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
Storm0.9%0.6%1.2%0.8%
Abzan Chord0.9%0.8%0.6%1.4%
Bogles0.8%1%0.8%0.5%
Gruul Zoo0.7%0.8%0.8%0.5%
Jeskai Control0.7%0.6%0.6%0.8%
Naya Company0.7%1%0.8%0.4%
Abzan Liege0.6%0.4%1.1%0.3%
Mardu Midrange0.5%0.4%0.8%0.3%
Death and Taxes0.5%0.4%1.1%0.0%
Grixis Control/Midrange0.5%0.6%0.7%0.3%
Goblins0.4%1.2%0.1%0%
Martyr Proc0.4%1%0.1%0%
Allies0.4%1%0.1%0.0%
Dredge0.4%0.4%0.3%0.4%
Bant Company0.3%0.4%0.1%0.3%

When I look at Tier 3, I see two categories of decks. I see Modern hallmarks like Naya Company, Bogles, Jeskai Control, Death and Taxes, Abzan Liege, all of them regulars which Vengeful Pharaohhave been Tier 2 at one time or another. These decks are just waiting in line to return to the spotlight, clinging to a history of previous success as a promise of better futures to come. As such, they have some baseline viability, and are the safer options in Tier 3. Then we have the Goblins, Dredges, and Allies of Modern. These strategies maintain a tenuous position, at best, in Tier 3. At worst, they're running hot today and are likely to be gone tomorrow. Don't take these finishes as a sign of the next Goblin Piledriver renaissance, or a signal to buy up Vengeful Pharaohs before the next big event. Rather, consider these fringe-of-the-fringe decks as indicators of what kinds of strategies might break through in the current Modern context. In this case, we see linear decks that go wide, and we see graveyard decks (Storm is here too) that circumvent Eldrazi's gameplan.

All that said, I'd stay away from Tier 3 decks in a Tier 0 format. You can probably win them if you play enough events, but your chances of success at any given tournament are very low and heavily dependent on matchups, luck, opponent skill, and a lot of small-picture factors I wouldn't encourage you to gamble on. Be my guest to do so in a Tier 1 format, but it's just too dangerous when a Tier 0 horror has plunged Modern into chaos.

Weathering the March Metagame

Two Eldrazi articles down, only one more to go. April is looking closer by the hour! If nothing else, this last look at the Eldrazi-centric format can serve as a reference point to any future Moderners who don't believe how bad it got. It will also serve as a point of comparison if Modern metagames slip into imbalance in the future. Finally, it helps players who are trying to navigate this twisted wasteland throughout March, either steering them towards a non-Eldrazi deck, or helping them decide which Eldrazi beast to tame before R&D swings the ban axe.

Thanks for reading and for all your great comments and feedback on yesterday's Grand Prix breakdown article. Feel free to ask all your Modern questions in the comment section again, especially all things Eldrazi. I don't even want to type that ugly-looking word again until my third and final Eldrazi piece (the oh-so-satisfying banlist article), but I'm happy to discuss them here while the Grand Prix carnage is fresh in our minds. See you all soon and keep your heads up as we get closer to April. Just 27 more days to go!

Insider: Specing Takes Braaaains!!!

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Who doesn't love a good zombie yarn? The current season of The Walking Dead has been completely absurd. Sunday's episode was riveting... Seriously, Abraham? Seriously?

Zombies are great. Everybody loves zombies. If The Walking Dead has taught us anything it's that they make great pets. Get a couple of fish tanks for the wall, or a couple of leashes. Adorable.

And, who isn't excited to make a super cute zombie deck with Shadows over Innistrad (SOI) looming on the horizon? Innistrad has a zombie problem that makes The Walking Dead look like Disneyland. Disney is still pretty scary, mindless, and slowly devouring everything in its path so it makes a nice zombie dystopia comparison; but Innistrad is super messed up---like, Teletubbies-level deranged.

Zombies have always teetered on the edge of competitive in Constructed. I actually made Day 2 of a Standard Grand Prix back in Innistrad-Return to Ravnica Standard with a pretty sick Jund Zombies brew. As far as tribes go they have never really been much of a constructed powerhouse but they occasionally get a few fringe moments every once and a while.

The lone exception being eternal Dredge decks. Yet, those decks don't really play zombie creatures, they just make copious numbers of zombie tokens with Bridge from Below.

While zombie tribal decks may not be tearing up the top tables at pro level constructed events like Pro Tours and Grand Prix, the zombies are certainly a fan favorite at the kitchen table. Good zombie cards always keep a pretty solid price tag because every Walking Dead fan turned casual Magic player wants to summon the Zombie Horde.

The newly previewed SOI mythic zombie, Relentless Dead, seems to imply there will be plenty of awesome zombie goodness in the new set. Could this card enable some sweet Modern brew? I mean, Modern is a pretty broken format but depending on what gets banned, and if they ban multiple things, I don't think Zombie Aggro is out of the question.

So, let's look at the hottest zombie specs that will be all the rage at the kitchen table as new players embrace the zombies from Innistrad and look for older zombies to fill out their decks.

Gravecrawler

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gravecrawler

I'm pretty sure Gravecrawler is an auto-include in every zombie deck forever. The card is the epitome of an awesome zombie card. One mana, two power, and it comes back! Again and again and again! At least in The Walking Dead if you stab a zombie in the face it is out for the count. With Gravecrawler you have to go full-out Tormod's Crypt or Rest in Peace to finally put it down for good!

I think the casual demand for this card will be through the roof in the coming months. It is sufficiently old that it is pretty tough to get ahold of copies. It's the kind of card that is always sold out at the local game store at pretty high prices.

I see this card as one that could easily hit the $10+ casual zone very soon. The card is also great in a zombie-themed deck because it gives you cheap fodder to continually sacrifice for value to effects like Grave Pact.

I also love the flavor of the card. It is just like a zombie horde. It keeps coming for you, just like the zombies on TV or the movies.

Geralf's Messenger

There was an error retrieving a chart for Geralf's Messenger

The other awesome zombie that will likely be in the Modern deck if it is Constructed-worthy. Messenger is exactly the kind of card people like to play with. It is super aggressively costed for what you get. It comes into play and takes some life away (pseudo haste) and returns to play from the grave when it dies to do it all over again.

Once again, Messenger also fits nicely into a deck that wants to get value out of sacrificing things. It does a bunch of damage and creates two drain triggers. Basically, all the reasons Gravecrawler is great also apply to Geralf's Messenger. Aggressively costed, flavorful, and great in a deck that wants to sacrifice things and have lots of graveyard synergies.

Cemetery Reaper

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cemetery Reaper

Reaper is actually a pretty sweet card. It is a three-mana zombie lord with the upside of being able to exile opposing creatures from graveyards and making more zombie friends! At $2 a rare zombie lord with upside seems like a pretty sweet deal that really has nowhere to go but up.

I could certainly see this card as the kind that casual players flock to. Especially if they want a zombie lord without having to pay more money for the expensive ones. The "lowish" price tag is one of the most attractive aspects of this card for sure.

This budget aspect puts a pretty hard floor on the card's value, even through reprints. I've always been a huge fan of finding cheap cards like this that can't possibly go down.

Lifebane Zombie

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lifebane Zombie

Lifebane Zombie is pretty clearly a Constructed-caliber creature. It was a maindeck, dominant card during its time in Standard. If there is a Modern Zombie deck this card will be in the 75.

Lifebane is just a good card. If I were going to build a casual zombie beatdown deck I'd probably play around with this awesome creature as well. At $0.50 it seems hard to lose much taking a chance on this card. Do kitchen table games even let you use sideboards? Does it even matter? I'd just run this creature.

I always recommend this card to people building casual decks and they typically buy them and are happy with them. So, I'm going to say this card is probably a great little card to pile up a few extra copies of to wait on. It was only in one core set that has been out of print for a while now. It is harder to find cards like this nowadays than people realize.

Also, people don't value them very highly. They are happy to get "something" for them and we are happy to pile them away for when they go up a little bit down the road.

Too low to fail.

Skinrender

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skinrender

It's never going to be big money or anything but this card is quite good and a nice fit in a kitchen table zombie deck. Removal and a creature that we can recur. I've always saved copies of this card from bulk. I wouldn't be surprised to see a newfound interest in this card with the new set.

Skirk Ridge Exhumer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Skirk Ridge Exhumer

The card is in Future Sight, need I say more?

This is actually a pretty interesting little zombie card that has some nice synergies with Gravecrawler and Relentless Dead. Zombies don't have as many great cheap drops as you might think. Especially in mono-black. There are a lot of them, but most of them are just cheap 2/1's and 2/2's with very weak abilities.

Exhumer is a unique card that can generate some nice value for a graveyard-based zombie deck. Probably not going to tear up Constructed any time soon but it is a card I could see casual players enjoying.

Call to the Grave

There was an error retrieving a chart for Call to the Grave

Last but certainly not least, Call to the Grave. I think this card is going to be all the rage at the kitchen table and even in Commander as people start playing around with zombie decks more and more. Call to the Grave is one of the most powerful cards that you can actually put into a zombie-themed deck. I mean, The Abyss is a $300 card for a reason and this card is the same effect except it protects all your zombies!

I really like Call to the Grave as a spec card. I've got quite a few stashed away myself and I was actively trying to pick them up at GP Detroit last weekend! They are super cheap right now and I suspect they will creep up a little bit as people start picking them up for casual decks.

Plus, gotta love the old card face ones. Seriously, look at this card and tell me it doesn't make you want to build a sweet casual zombie deck! Yeah, that is exactly how the kitchen table crowd feels when they take a look at it too.

A great way to spec on casual cards is to look at a new set and see what kind of broad strategies will appeal to casual players. Thematic decks, in particular tribal strategies, are great predictors of casual trends.

I think that betting on Zombie cards with SOI on the horizon is good value. All grave-y.

Insider: Self-Fulfilling Prophecies vs. Manipulation

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Welcome back, readers! Today's article concerns an issue I've seen popping up on the forums. It's particularly true with regards to all the Reserved List spikes we've seen recently. While some make sense, others don't.

We at QS do not advocate for the "pump and dump" strategy---in fact we actively rally against it. Magic finance doesn't have the Securities and Exchange Commission to keep people in check; people can and have manipulated the card market repeatedly. That being said, it's often difficult if not impossible to determine if demand for a given card is being driven by individuals or the market.

  1. Market-driven - A price is market-driven when there is enough demand from a large enough population to sustain that price. The available supply usually needs to be large enough to allow for an individual to buy as much as they want without dramatically affecting the price.
  2. Individual-driven - A price is individual-driven when there is a small enough quantity in the supply that an individual can influence the pricing significantly.

The Magic card market is small enough that it can be driven by individuals at times. If we look at a Standard rare (of which there should be plenty available) we are likely to find maybe 5,000 copies online at any given time between all the major and minor retailers. Compare that to McDonald's stock (MCD), which has 918 million shares outstanding.

So if I really like a $2 card I could in theory own all the available copies for around $10,000 (assuming I was somehow capable of buying them all at the same time and they were all the same price). In order to do that for McDonald's I'd need to have $105.5 billion.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shahrazad

But what happens when a card has very few copies listed online at any given time? Let's look at something like Shahrazad.

This rare from Arabian Nights is exceptionally old, but also banned in pretty much all relevant formats (Vintage, Legacy, Commander, etc.). As of writing, there are only 22 copies on TCG Player currently with prices ranging from $45.50 (HP) to $71.98 (LP). That's a pretty big price range over a pretty small sample. Not accounting for condition, the average price on TCG Player is $58.82.

If someone were to buy the cheapest copy then the average would shift to $59.37, which only moves the remaining price average up by about 0.93% (still quite a large impact for an individual purchase). If instead that same person were to buy the cheapest 10 copies they would spend $514.49 (not including shipping) and the average now jumps up to $63.74 or a 7.71% increase.

If the buyer now views this as, "wow my cards are worth 7.71% more then when I bought them," they are using faulty logic as there was no true increase in demand for the card outside of the buyer themself. This is where we have a self-fulfilling prophecy.

"There aren't a lot of copies of this card available, so that must mean that demand is high, so I should buy the cheapest copies."

"Oh look, the average went up after I bought the cheapest copies, that must mean I called this one right."

arrows

For those programmers out there (or anyone who has enjoyed watching LSV break MTGO), this is an infinite loop.

(Seriously, if you haven't seen that video, do yourself a favor and check it out).

True Market Price

The true market price is established as the prices of X and Y converge (where X is the price people are willing to pay for the card and Y is the price people are willing to sell the card at).

market price graph

In theory this should be a very simple graph in a non-manipulated market.

Manipulation

Now, this discussion might serve the opposite purpose and encourage people to try and manipulate the Magic market; but profit is only made when items have transferred ownership and payment has been received.

By this I mean if you were to buy all the copies of that $2 card on the internet and the next day people put up additional copies at $3 you might think to yourself, wow, I just turned $10,000 into $15,000, that's awesome. Except because the current price is entirely due to your own demand, the only person expected to keep buying is you...

Thus there's no real demand and you won't make any profit. Yesterday the market only wanted to pay $2 for the card and the market demand didn't actually go up (as you yourself represent a very small percent of the market itself).

So on the parabola above you are still only one dot on the "people will buy" side. If nobody else wants to buy the card at $3 then the sellers will start to drop the price in order to sell. You'll see your imaginary "profit" slip away and the card will recede back to its original market price.

Price Memory

Now, some of you might be saying, "Ah, but what about price memory?" which could be a valid point. However, price memory itself takes time to set in. If a card spikes rapidly enough and there's not enough valid reasoning behind it then there won't be enough people to say, "this card is worth the new price," and it'll eventually slip back to the market price.

For those who don't believe me, consider this infamous example from 2013:

aluren spike

Aluren spiked all of a sudden in a one-to-two-day time span for no apparent reason. As you can see the number of people buying it didn't really budge and it eventually receded all the way back to its original pre-spike price (now it's higher again thanks to all this Reserved List speculation tied to the announcement of Eternal Masters).

Now this isn't to say that all random spikes don't hold some price memory. For instance Leveler spiked hard when Laboratory Maniac was spoiled in Innistrad.

leveler spike

As you can see by the graph Leveler is currently about double what it was worth pre-spike (now around $0.8). But in this case we had more than a few individuals buying up this card.

I recall Mr. Chas Andres himself was big on this one and he discussed it in some of his articles over on Channel Fireball way back when. This likely caused additional people to buy in as he is seen as an expert in the field of MTG finance, and his words carry more weight with a lot of people.

The critical difference between the Aluren spike and the Leveler spike is that the Leveler spike was caused by a lot of people actually speculating on the card, whereas the Aluren spike was caused by one individual manipulating the market.

Conclusion

In the end, what really differentiates manipulation and self-fulfilling prophecies is the intent of the individual(s) behind it. However, it's important for those without malicious intent to be able to look back on a spec and recognize whether it went up because they made it go up or because the actual market demand was there.

Unfortunately, as nobody is "tapped into" the market perfectly, the only way to truly differentiate between an increase in actual demand and an individual-driven demand is reviewing the price after the market has had time to adjust. To make it more complicated there is no set time period to begin checking, as some spikes can dissipate quickly and some may take a much longer time.

So please, before you post "the next big thing" in the forums make sure you aren't the driving force behind any movement.

Sifting Through the Grand Prix Eldrazi Rubble

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On Saturday and Sunday, the Gatewatch made their last stand against the Eldrazi in three cities across the world. The Grand Prix battles were fierce. Opposition was stiff. Weeks of debate and analysis led to this point, and the Modern community rallied with the best technology and innovation in its arsenal. But in the end, the outcome was never in question. The metagame numbers, whether in Top 8, Top 32, or the Top 100 Day 2 decks, showcased the most warped metagame in the format's history. The Eldrazi menace made up over 40% of the collective Grand Prix field, making tales of Bloodbraid Jund and Deathrite BGx appear as a fond memory. Everyone played Eldrazi and won or played an anti-Eldrazi deck and lost, and as the weekend closed, Modern was in ruins and the Gatewatch lay defeated. The Eldrazi had won.

Witness the End banner

April 4 comes in 28 days, and this is the first of three articles I'll write on Eldrazi in that time period. Everything else will project the post-April metagame, discuss major Modern policy and management issues, or spotlight strategies and tech that might shine after April. There is no doubt this deck will be hit with at least one ban after this miserable month of unprecedented imbalance, so I'm not spending any more time than needed to discuss such an obvious offender. Today's article will summarize the horrors of Grand Prix weekend, revisiting predictions I made last week. Later this week, I'll publish a formal February metagame analysis, and will also mark the last time I talk about Eldrazi in a metagame context. That will bring us to the third article (date TBD): a scathing indictment of Eldrazi and a call for Eldrazi Temple's or Eye of Ugin's execution. Maybe both! Testing will tell. With that roadmap laid out, let's turn to the most broken Grand Prix events in Modern's history and see how bad things got for Aaron Forsythe to declare Modern a DEFCON 1.

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A Conquered Metagame

By the time you read this article, you'll already have consumed considerable media about the disaster of Grand Prix weekend. Forsythe already all but confirmed an upcoming ban in his Grand Prix Detroit interview. Twitter and Reddit have seethed with Eldrazi venom since Saturday morning. Even the normally positive coverage team was speechless at the percentages from the weekend's tournaments. Rather than recap all those figures alone, I want to situate them in the context of previous Modern events. Specifically, in Modern metagame contexts that previously saw format-diversity bans. This will give some historical sense of just how bad things became over the weekend and why you should be as outraged as I am. Maybe even as outraged as Twitch chat, but probably not: our comment section doesn't support the same range of expressive emoticons.

Since Modern Grand Prix tournaments began in 2012, the format has seen five format-diversity bans.Deathrite Shaman I'm not going to talk about those metagames in the banning context itself: I've already done that in my "Last Word on the Splinter Twin Banning" piece. I'm also not going to evaluate those bans. Instead, I'm going to use those bans as indicators of an unhealthy metagame. In the cases of Bloodbraid Elf Jund, Deathrite Shaman BGx Midrange, Treasure Cruise URx Delver, BGx Birthing Pod, and URx Splinter Twin, Wizards identified metagame elements indicative of some fundamental format imbalance. To understand the significant and unprecedented warpage of this weekend, we'll look at the Day 2s and Top 8s of those previous metagames.

Eldrazi in the Day 2 Metagame Context

The graph below represents the Day 2 Grand Prix and Pro Tour shares for each of the banned decks in the months preceding their bans. In some cases, this was as many as eight distinct events (URx Twin from Pro Tour Fate Reforged through Grand Prix Pittsburgh). In others, it was only three (URx Delver with a Grand Prix each in Madrid, Milan, and Omaha).

Banned Deck Shares by Event Chart 1

For people who process better with fewer numbers, here are the average Day 2 shares in each deck category.

Banned Deck Average Shares by Event Chart 2

With the exception of URx Twin, which I've already discussed at length, all of these decks averaged in the 16%-19% range for Grand Prix Day 2 shares. Even adding URx Twin, we can reasonably assume that a metagame might suffer from imbalance when a deck can average between 12% and 19% over its entire lifespan. Of course, something like URx Delver was shorter lived, but still averaged 17.5% across Day 2s in a period of three Grand Prix tournaments.

That brings us to Eldrazi, the Pro Tour where they shambled onto the Modern scene, and the Grand Prix weekend we just endured.

We didn't get any formal Day 2 metagame breakdowns from this past weekend. Instead, we got a strange "Top 100" format I've never seen before in four years of Wizards' Modern metagame reporting. It's also not even a random sample of the Day 2 decks; it's literally the 100 players and decks with the most points going into the Day 2. Frank Karsten confirmed over Twitter that this was an issue of manpower and hours, not Wizards trying to deliberately obscure its unhealthy Day 2 metagames, but I'm still suspicious: Grand Prix Detroit had a big coverage team and similarly-sized events released proper Day 2 breakdowns in a timely fashion (see Grand Prix Pittsburgh). I'll keep an eye on this in future events and bookmark this weekend's coverage, but for now, we're just going to treat the Top 100s as Day 2s for lack of other data.

Here's that first graph again with the Eldrazi shares added.

Banned Deck Average Shares by Event Chart 3

And that's what DEFCON 1 looks like. Notice how the piddly 10.6% Day 2 share from Pro Tour Oath eventually ballooned into that towering triple bar at the end? That's the trajectory of a true Tier 0 deck, and it even exceeds in magnitude (although matching in trend and direction) the overall metagame picture from the Pro Tour until today. Grand Prix Bologna was the most diverse of the three tournaments, with "only" about 40% of the field on the deck. Melbourne was next at 43%. Of course, the event with the most coverage, Detroit, was the worst of them all with a 47% Eldrazi share. The Detroit Top 100 article also contained some of the most unintentionally hilarious, public-relations spins on the metagame of any Modern event I can remember.

"So that’s the Eldrazi. And it’s behaving like an eight-hundred-thousand­-pound gorilla, but remember, this is Modern. There are 53 decks that are not Eldrazi, and among them are more than 20 archetypes."

"The Eldrazi numbers are large, but not insurmountable. And even if you do join the big, bad evil, there are variety types of evil to choose from."

"A Day 1 like this could mean the Top 8 could look like anything really. In a few short rounds, we’ll see."

In fairness, the Eldrazi numbers were surmounted by a lone Abzan Company hero in Ralph Batesh. We'll ignore the fact that the Detroit Top 8 had six Eldrazi strategies alongside Abzan Company (and UR Storm, thanks to Modern hero #2 James Zornes) but hey, I guess they were technically surmounted in the end.

The average shares are actually a bit better because the 39%+ Eldrazi slice from Grand Prix weekend gets brought down by the 10.6% from Pro Tour Oath. Of course, that downgrades it from "abysmal" to "merely terrible." And hey, with Eldrazi averaging 35.3%, that's still 64.7% of the format on something else! #ThisIsFine

Banned Deck Average Shares by Event Chart 4

When I was drafting this article, I considered presenting these last two charts without the dramatic preview of the no-Eldrazi versions. That would have saved on word count and cut back on some degree of sensationalism, but to be totally honest, I'm comfortable with sensationalism in this case. Especially if it helps you relive the visceral shock I experience whenever I recheck these numbers. Eldrazi isn't quite twice as bad as the next most polarized metagame (Bloodbraid Jund). It's just 1.8 times as bad, and at least that much more imbalanced relative to all the other periods.

Endless oneI highlight this historical Day 2 context to give qualitative illustration to a qualitative phenomenon that was rampant throughout the weekend. Eldrazi felt like it was everywhere, and it seemed like it was the least diverse a Modern event, let alone a series of Modern events, had ever been. Those feelings hardly bear repeating, with the majority of feature matches showcasing Eldrazi mirrors or Eldrazi vs. Anti-Eldrazi matchups, and most of Twitter (myself proudly included) decrying the unhealthy format. Hopefully, by seeing that field alongside historically imbalanced fields, we can now understand our dissatisfaction as a function of those past metagames.

Eldrazi in the Top 8 Context

Of course, Day 2 standings aren't the only pedestal for format diversity. Wizards is keen to cite Top 8s as both evidence for and against a healthy Modern, whether in banlist updates or in Modern hype pieces rolled out before major events. There is certainly a popular appeal to Top 8s: they are much more visible than the dull, numbers-heavy Day 2 (or Top 100) breakdowns, and generally receive more coverage in the content following a tournament. Sample size aside, these are also the ostensibly best decks of the day! Who doesn't want to gush over a cool Top 8 finish or diverse Top 8 field, regardless of what happened in the lower tables? Following this, it's important to acknowledge the historic Top 8 picture and see where Eldrazi fits into it.

Instead of showing discrete Top 8 showings for single events, I'm jumping right to the average Top 8 showing across all events for each deck. With only a few possible values for the number of Top 8 appearances for each deck, the event-by-event breakdown just looks ugly. The event summary chart looks much better, although the disproportionate Eldrazi share is ugly in its own way.

Banned Deck Average Shares Top 8s Chart 1

From Pro Tour Oath until the end of Grand Prix Detroit, Eldrazi never sent fewer than three pilots to these major Top 8s. Detroit and the Pro Tour both had six. Bologna added five and Melbourne was at a mere three. Step it up, Australian Eldrazi! Adding the StarCityGames Louisville Open would have included a four-Eldrazi Top 8 in the dataset, but I'm excluding SCG events from the other categories so I'm also removing it here. Speaking of those other categories, not even URx Delver, a deck that dominated for a comparable period of time, was even close to the Eldrazi dominance we've witnessed since the Pro Tour and culminating in the Grand Prix Three. Only Deathrite comes close at less than half the Eldrazi Top 8 prevalence.

Of course, our statistically minded readers will note different event Ns for each period. Birthing PodEldrazi has seen play in four major events between the Grand Prix and Pro Tour scene. By contrast, URx Twin saw play in twice the number of significant events. This was also true of BGx Pod and BGx Deathrite Midrange strategies. With a wider time period, the averages for these decks get brought down by outlying events. Fun fact: 2013's Grand Prix Kansas City and Grand Prix Portland both saw zero BGx Midrange decks in their respective Top 8s (poor Birthing Pod decks with Deathrite don't count!). The simple averages also discount periods of time where a deck became uniquely broken. For instance, Bloodbraid Elf was much tamer before Return to Ravnica added Deathrite and Abrupt Decay to the mix. Same for Pod decks and Siege Rhino after Khans of Tarkir. 

To adjust for these differences, the chart below only looks at the four events where the deck had the most Top 8 appearances. This means we're comparing the worst of the Eldrazi with the worst of everything else. Because URx Treasure Cruise Delver only had three Grand Prix representatives in the dataset, I'm even adding the best-attended, highest-share Delver event from the period: StarCityGames' Modern Premier IQ in Ohio on January 4, 2015. That added three Delver decks to its share, which is over its baseline average of just two.

Banned Deck Average Shares Top 8s Chart 2

Even cherry-picking the four most lopsided events from each of the banned decks' history, we still don't encounter a deck matching Eldrazi. Deathrite BGx comes close with 3.75, a number brought up by 2013's Grand Prix Detroit which saw six Deathrite decks in the Top 8. I'm a Midwesterner myself, so you can't tempt me into making any Detroit cracks here or anywhere else in this article. I save my Midwestern jabs for the Green Bay Packers. Regional humor aside, this "Worst of the Worst" comparison only underscores just how lopsided the recent Top 8 results were in even the historical Modern context. Not even widely accepted offenders like Deathrite Shaman pushed their decks to this level of metagame control.

Eldrazi Everywhere Else

Outside of the Last Chance Qualifiers, there was virtually no segment of the Grand Prix metagame which wasn't writhing with Eldrazi. And even there, 50% of Detroit's Qualifiers were Eldrazi of some kind, even if Bologna and Melbourne almost looked normal. It wasn't like anything else even approached normal all weekend long. In case you want a final accounting of the carnage, here are all the highlights (lowlights?) of the weekend and just how much Eldrazi crushed/smashed/CRUNCHED each event.

First up, Melbourne with its pitiful 3/8 Eldrazi showing in the Top 8.

Bologna is next, with a much better Top 8 showing but a far more disappointing 39% Top 100 Day 2 share. Really need those Eldrazi to up their game!

We end with Detroit, the event that had the most coverage, the most players, and, surprise surprise, the most Eldrazi.

Whether in isolation or in the historical context of past Modern metagames, the Grand Prix Eldrazi weekend broke (quite literally) new ground in the format and how we view degenerate decks. Before this weekend, my benchmark of a broken deck was in the 15%-20% range, with major offenders hovering around 25%-30%. I hadn't believed Modern could host such a format-wrenching force as Eldrazi, but I've learned a lot about what a Tier 0 deck looks like in this format. Standard, Extended, Block, and other formats have had their share of Tier 0 nightmares before, but this has been the first one in Modern and has it been truly grotesque to watch it unfold.

Checking Predictions

I always try to be conservative when making predictions, taking the pre-trends as my guide and relying on Modern's natural ability to regulate imbalance (even if Wizards can't help themselves by tampering with this ability via bans). What can I say? I love Modern and I'm an optimist at heart. This led to a track record of prediction successes over 2015, but also to a major miss during Grand Prix Eldrazi weekend. Looks like the Eldrazi were simply too broken to be regulated and too powerful for my meager optimism: I'm 1.5 for 4 on predictions from last week. Oh well. I guess that's what happens when you bank against such a glaring and offensive Tier 0 monstrosity.

Here are those missed predictions, where they fell short, and how we can learn from them in the future.

  • Reality SmasherEldrazi averaging 25%-30% in Day 2s? NOPE!
    In the best of circumstances, a Tier 1 deck might reach 25%-30% in one event. I stand by that assessment, but Eldrazi is a Tier 0 deck, not a Tier 1 deck. The ceiling is much higher. Having never experienced a Tier 0 deck in Modern, I was uncertain how Eldrazi would impact and uproot the format and instead placed my projections in the humbler, Tier 1 arena. Never again! We now know what a Tier 0 deck is capable of, and this will serve as a longstanding benchmark for future format health.
  • Eldrazi underperforming from Day 2 to Top 32? NOPE!
    My metagame logic on this prediction was sound. Eldrazi decks would clobber the unprepared decks in a broader field on Day 1. Anti-Eldrazi decks that scraped by to Day 2 would then get their pass at the format monster, knocking many out of contention for Top 32. Ultimately, we would expect to see Eldrazi underrepresented in the Top 32 relative to their Day 2 share. Instead, they overrepresented in every event. What happened? I just underestimated how powerful Eldrazi was and how adaptable it was to hate. Even Living End, UW Control, and Abzan Company, probably the best Eldrazi slayers of the lot, still fell to Eldrazi in the top tables. This is another hallmark of a Tier 0 deck, and one I will remember: the Tier 0 deck still beats its so-called predators.
  • collected companyAbzan Company/Chord and Blue Moon excel? Not really...
    I'm kicking myself for switching "UW Control" to "Blue Moon" at the last-minute in the previous article. What can I say? I love Blood Moon, get inspired by Jason Chung, and saw some favorable Moon adaptions leading up to the weekend. UW Control won out in the end, with a few Top 32s and even a Top 16, but at least Abzan Company proved its salt. Living End was the other big non-Eldrazi winner of the weekend, but again, this was clearly the case of the anti-decks ultimately losing to their supposed targets. That's the mark of a Tier 0 deck, and although Abzan Company had its biggest weekend at Detroit, the overall picture is still a bleak Wastes of Eldrazi.
  • 2+ Eldrazi decks in each Top 8? Got 'em!
    We've talked about this one enough for today. Eldrazi were everywhere and beat everything en route to their big performance. Anti-decks don't beat their prey if the prey is really a Tier 0 super-predator in disguise.

There are probably a few other Grand Prix takeaways worth discussing, such as attendance (strong at Bologna and Melbourne; middling at Detroit), coverage (Gaby Spartz and LSV rocked it all weekend long; lack of Shadows Over Innistrad coverage until Sunday rocked it less), and matchup quality (Jund and Dark Confidant flips a highlight; Eldrazi mirrors and cut-to-backup-match Lantern Control rounds not so much). I'm happy to discuss all of this in the comments, but for now, I'm ready to exit the Grand Prix wreckage and start looking ahead to the future.

Bidding Farewell to the Eldrazi

28 days left, two Eldrazi articles to go, and a whole brave new Modern future awaiting us on April 4. Most of the time, I spend my Nexus articles guiding readers away from the popular (mis)interpretations of recent events, metagame statistics, and some new Modern hype. Most of the time, however, we don't have a flagrant Tier 0 tyrant squashing our format into the dust. Today is the rare day where all the anger, buzz, hype, rage, and internet opinion is mostly right: Eldrazi is just as bad as everyone thinks. That's been supported by the internal data from the Grand Prix events themselves, the historical context of previous broken metagames, and the despairing din from every Moderner across the world.

Eye of UginThankfully, something will change in April and Wizards will act to ban at least one piece from the deck. Forsythe indicated a more limited ban approach in his Detroit interview, ideally one leaving the deck intact in some form, but I still expect an example to be made of either Eye of Ugin or Eldrazi Temple. Other targets are up for grabs and up for testing. Until then, keep your heads up and remember that even though the community Gatewatch failed to beat the unbeatable Eldrazi over the weekend, the R&D Gatewatch are ready to deal the death-blow in less than a month.

Let me know in the comments if you have any questions about the data, feedback about the article, ideas about future (non-Eldrazi) pieces for the next few weeks, or general reactions to Modern. We're almost out of the twisted, tentacled woods, and I'll see you all soon.

Insider: High Stakes MTGO – Feb 28th to Mar 5th

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Welcome back for another round of High Stakes MTGO!

There was a lot of mouvement again this week as I'm trying to have keep my portfolio as fit as possible. By fit I mean selling profitable or hopeless specs while reinvesting into any position with a decent potential. As I mentioned before my goal is not to spend every single tix on my account but rather to make sure each of my tix are put to good use as often as possible.

In case you haven't bookmarked it, the live spreadsheet is here.

Buys This Week

IGCM

I was not fully stocked with these cards and their price went down to or below my original buying price. I still believe in these specs so there’s no reason in my eyes not to reload on a few playsets here.

MF

These two fetchlands lost about half of their value since before the release of Oath of the Gatewatch, a likely consequence of the colorless oppression from the Eldrazis. Both seemed like great targets to me with two to three month's perspective of growth. In my eyes rumors of ZEN fetchlands potentially being in Eternal Masters are mostly irrelevant at this point, considering the time frame I have in mind with my ZEN fetchland specs.

AlbS

Champions of Kamigawa drafts made Azusa’s price dip sharply, especially without a solid Amulet Bloom deck around. That being said we now have an idea of its potential price-wise. This is a mid- to long-term bet investment.

The situation is almost identical for Threads of Disloyalty. This card has a high ceiling and the Kamigawa block flashback drafts didn’t flood the market. When fair aggro decks come back in Modern this blue enchantment should logically find a home again in several decks, as it did after the previous B&R list changes and before the rise of the Eldrazis.

KC

This spec is purely graph-based. Another floor was reached when I bought the black-red command and I’m betting on prices in the neighborhood of 20 tix in the short term. A lot of good mythics and rares from Dragons of Tarkir showed that sort of nice up and down swing since this past summer. DTK is not rotating next April so that leaves me a comfortable room to exit my Kolaghan's Command position with a profit.

Gr

Investing in Griselbrand is like investing in full sets; I can invest a large amount of tix for only a few copies and expect moderate gains at best. However Griselbrand is playable in all eternal formats and if nothing happens in term of reprints a 60 tix ceiling can be reached fairly easily.

IN

This land is a key card in Modern and in Legacy. Mirrodin Besieged flashback drafts won’t be scheduled for a while so this guy has plenty of room to grow, especially after a likely ban of the Eldrazi menace.

JaoT

The redemption period for Return to Ravnica is over. With the stocks of this iteration of Jace fixed, the card is expected to follow cyclical Modern fluctuations from now on. I already rode Jace’s trend at the end of last year---the time has come for another ride with a planeswalker that has already proved himself in Modern.

Sales This Week

These Legacy specs were stagnating after the Legacy leagues spike that occurred earlier in February. I was satisfied with their current price so I decided to sell and move to something else.

As I'm writting these lines Counterbalance added another 10-15% to its price, potentially signaling that the growth of these and other Legacy staples may not be over after all. If you're still holding your Legacy specs it may be worth waiting a few more days. I'm still holding onto Force of Will, Tropical Island and Volcanic Island, and I hope they'll follow the trend of the blue enchantment from Coldsnap.

My target selling price was around 4 tix and that price was reached about a week and a half ago. In the short- to mid-term doubling is about the best I'm expecting with any shockland specs so I'm plenty satisfied with a +78% profit.

Ravnica block flashback drafts are just around the corner and if shocklands in Dissension shouldn't weigh too much on their Return to Ravnica or Gatecrash counterparts, I'm ready to bite the bullet with my Steam Vents and Overgrown Tomb. I should have maybe sold them a few weeks ago but I didn't. Shocklands will always have some demand in Modern so I'm ready to hold on to these for a longer run, until Return to Ravnica block flashback drafts at least.

These two positions reached my expected selling prices. Even if their current price trend plays in their favor I'm sticking to my strategy here and will sell happily with a good and certain profit.

2 tix was my goal with the Merfolk Master. I was able to sell a first batch of these at this price and now that they're back in this price range I'm selling the rest of my position.

Another disappointing/mismanaged spec from Khans of Tarkir. Time to let go though.

The last card from KTK/FRF I now have in stock is Dig Through Time. This delve blue instant is bound to be a losing spec anyway and I thought about selling it last week after it peaked around 1 tix. However thoughts of selling don't grant any reward in this speculative game. Dig is back to 0.3 tix. Sometime soon I'll pull the trigger and gather the 12 tix my pile of Digs is worth.

On My Radar

I don't have anything particularly on my radar for the coming days/weeks. I'll try to clean my Standard portfolio while continuing to buy and sell Modern positions as they fluctuate. Starting to buy singles from Battle for Zendikar and later in March from Oath of the Gatewatch is still on my agenda.

Questions & Answers

In a thread in our QS forum we had a discussion about my potential influence on prices. Allow me to develop my point of view below.

Using Keranos, God of Storms as an example, one could wonder if by---almost---publicly posting my purchases and sales I was able to "dictate" prices, at least in the short term.Q1

A decent number of speculators are out there on MTGO and many of them are posting on QS forums and share their ideas and opinions. A lot more might be acting without ever commenting on our forums.

When a card like Keranos, with a nicely defined price trend, drops from 48 tix to sub 20 tix a lot of people are wondering whether that's a decent floor to buy in. A lot of people are thinking about it and when copies start to slowly disappear, the price drop slows down a bit, and people start being more vocal about buying, then it doesn't take long for supplies to dry up and the price to rebound.

To some extent, this is in miniature similar to the unbanning of a card in Modern. I was clearly not the first to pull the trigger as I bought my copies after the price started to rebound, but undeniably my buys can be perceived as a green light for others to follow. The actual jump from 13.5 tix to 19.5 tix was made almost entirely by speculators, and my 22 copies are only a small part of it.

Keranos natural trend might have been something like this:

Kgraph

A more organic floor might have been found around 10-12 tix and the price probably would have slowly rebounded. If everything mentioned above is true then Keranos's price will probably stabilize around 15 tix in a week or two before resuming an upward trend. Or maybe only speculators were playing here and the price may keep falling.

Speculation in general, and in MTGO for what concerns us, is also a game of deciding what price suits you well. I happened to pass countless specs because other speculators had triggered a rebound sooner that I had planned on, and I simply moved on to another target.

Q2

Most likely I have contributed to the spike we observed for Keranos. As I said in the forum and above, a lot of people are following price trends on MTGO. After all it's available for anybody thanks to Mtggoldfish.com. If there may have been some causation in the example of Keranos it's correlation most of the time.

Plenty of other cards I invested in recently, including expensive cards in the range of Keranos, didn't have the same price rebound or even a slight price decrease. Take for example Misty Rainforest, Griselbrand, Marsh Flats, Geist of Saint Traft and Inkmoth Nexus.

Some got a little price increase after I posted my transaction, such as Kolaghan's Command and Creeping Tar Pit. Through the Breach, Jace, Architect of Thought and Threads of Disloyalty had a marked price increase. If any, posting my specs has a minor effect. Correlation doesn't imply causation.

If you think I have an effect on card prices then what about SaffronOlive posting his decks on Mtggoldfish? He must be a market manipulator. Have you seen the recent spike of Legion Loyalist? He simply posted couple of videos of a Modern Goblin budget deck and had good success with it.

The reason is the deck posted 5-0 results in Modern leagues before he made his videos. He and people such as Travis Woo can really set prices on fire with their brews. Speculators, even like myself, are no match in terms of "price manipulation."

Q3

Yes that's the nature of this venture and that's the direct and indirect influence we all have on prices. I decided to put my moves out there and that's all of the actual transactions I make. No recommendations, no "you should" or "you shouldn't," no advice I may not follow myself.

Sure, enough of my calls are good and profitable and anyone following them should be making some tix. There are also a lot instances where I'm wrong or miss on the timing at least. There's decent room for improvement for anybody willing to take this to the next level.

Unfortunately as big as the numbers you read may seem, I'm not speculating on MTGO for a living. It could be enough for a young single student sharing an apartment with three roommates in a city where the cost of living is low. But for the moderate life I have in Boston, with a toddler and a wife staying home to raise our kid, I have a day job that is just enough to cover our expenses.

At this point my MTGO specs are surely able to pay some bills but are not providing savings for retirement or health benefits. I plan on taking a trip to Vermont paid for by my MTGO specs but that's about it.

 

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Financial Takeaways After Grand Prix Eldrazi Weekend

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28 days. That's how long Modern must wait until Eye of Ugin and Eldrazi Temple both go the way of Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time.

Following a Grand Prix triple-header at Melbourne, Bologna, and Detroit, the Modern metagame has exceeded Lovecraftian levels of warpage. The Top 100 of these three events were 43%, 39%, and 47% Eldrazi respectively. GP Melbourne had three Eldrazi in the Top 8. GP Bologna had five, and all the Top 32's of were as bad as the Top 100's. Both Melbourne and Bologna ended with U/W Eldrazi mirrors.

Added to the 33% Eldrazi share leading up to Grand Prix weekend, these numbers are, quite literally, the most broken I've ever seen Modern since it started in 2011.

Welcome to Modern

Wizards will act on April 4, and I expect a decisive ban in the tradition of 2005 Affinity, 2011 Caw Blade, and 2015 URx Delver. We'll talk more about the ban rationale as we get closer to April 4, but for now, it's enough to start marking down the calendar until both cards get obliterated.

That means it's also time to stop worrying about beating the Eldrazi or co-existing with them. Instead, I'm thinking ahead to the post-April Modern metagame.

As deplorable as metagame diversity has been these past weeks, we've seen a few important technological and strategic innovations that are likely to persist beyond bans.

While everyone else is unloading Eldrazi staples (I've been warning about this for weeks), there are a number of cards you'll want to pick up while the rest are frantically selling off their Eyes. The technology and strategies in this article have distinguished themselves in an Eldrazi world and, more importantly, look to meet the benchmarks to succeed after the Eldrazi perish.

I'm going to be assuming a double Eye and Temple ban, even if this might not occur. There's no better way to minimize your investment risk than to assume the maximum possible banning scope. At least in the first two sections, your risks would be even lower if the Eldrazi survived in some form, so it's a good baseline assumption for now.

Hold Those Eldrazi

I've already talked about Eldrazi cards likely to maintain value after a ban, and the Grand Prix weekend helped highlight some of those staples. Whether in watching slow Eldrazi starts or seeing these Eldrazi in action across tight matchups, we witnessed plenty of Grand Prix evidence that a few Eldrazi will be remain Modern-relevant even if both Eye and Temple head off to banlist exile.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thought-Knot Seer

Even after a major ban, Thought-Knot Seer would remain strong in Modern. During the GP Detroit stream we saw even turn three or turn four Seers put in major work in the grindier matchups, also representing a formidable 4/4 body to clock an opponent or stall the board. Numerous decks will be able to power out the turn 3-4 Seer, including Death and Taxes, Abzan Chord (not Company, due to mana-cost conflicts), and the Tron decks.

In all those cases, Seer gives decks which traditionally don't have access to discard effects an interactive out against the turn four combos of Modern. The 4/4 body tangles favorably with Burn and Zoo's beatsticks, which further pushes the Seer towards playability even after a ban.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Matter Reshaper

We didn't see a lot of Matter Reshaper at Star City Games' Louisville Open, with many Eldrazi players investing heavily in mirror-match bullets like Worship and Eldrazi Displacer. Although GP Detroit and the other events still saw the supremacy of U/W Eldrazi, it also saw many R/G players (and other Eldrazi builds) migrate back to the value-laden Reshaper. This bodes well for Reshaper's chances after a possible ban.

I absolutely love Matter Reshaper in the two-colored, creature-heavy decks like Death and Taxes and Hatebears. Reshaper also has great synergy with Company, even if the current Abzan, Bant, and Naya versions might shy away from the <> mana requirements. For decks that can rock the painlands (more on those later), Reshaper becomes a powerful turn 2-3 play whether against aggressive Burn and Zoo starts, or in the grindy Abzan, Jund, and Ux(x) Control matchups.

Reshaper and Seer are the big winners after a possible double ban, but all the other Eldrazi will get affected as well. Here's a quick list of their prospects and your financial directive for each creature. Again, I'm assuming the most destructive double-ban possible. A more limited ban would decrease your risk in every category.

Reality Smasher

Verdict: Sell

I initially thought this might be more playable, but I'm very nervous about betting on five-mana creatures without the acceleration of Temple or Eye. This card becomes better in metagames clogged with Lingering Souls and spot removal, but much worse if blue decks roar back with Remand and Snapcaster Mage.

The Grand Prix events showed Smasher was at its best as a turn 3-4 aggro drop and at its worst later when the board was locked down, and I fear a post-banning Modern will have more of the latter than the former. Safer to sell now and rebuy later than lose the value altogether.

Endless One

Verdict: Sell

I guess Ancient Stirrings hits it, but without the ahead-of-the-curve growth induced by Temple and Eye, Endless One feels a lot less endless. Tarmogoyf and Gurmag Angler (remember them?) will quickly outclass this card, not to mention the return of linear decks that race under a turn four 4/4.

Eldrazi Displacer

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eldrazi Displacer

Verdict: Sell

On the one hand, Displacer shenanigans get much better in grindier metagames. On the other hand, Displacer was at its best during the Grand Prix Three when it didn't face removal or pressure. A post-banning Modern is sure to see ample pressure (a return to linear decks in an uncertain format) and substantial removal (Lightning Bolt will be back in force). The safe bet is to sell out now and buy back later if the card looks decent.

Drowner of Hope

Verdict: Sell

Abstractly, Drowner seems like a solid way to bust up stalled boards, or a decent inclusion in the blue-based Tron lists which can accelerate it out early.

Unfortunately, both the Grand Prix tournaments and the events leading up to this weekend showed us exactly where Drowner excels and why Drowner was so relevant. For one, Drowner got a ton of synergy with endless Eldrazi Scions courtesy of Eldrazi Skyspawner and Displacer activations. Two, Drowner was best at breaking open stalemates, especially between Eldrazi decks.

The removal of Eye and Temple eliminates both of those scenarios. Tron decks can't even cast this guy until turn four, which is not where you want to be against Modern's fast decks.

Eldrazi Mimic

Verdict: Sell

We saw huge Mimic crunches in the early turns of GP Detroit matches. We also saw Mimic sit around looking stupid past around turns 4-5. Without Temple and Eye to power those starts, Mimic is sure to fall in the latter category, not the former, once April comes around.

Let me know in the comments if you have questions about other Eldrazi staples! Most of the non-Eldrazi fixtures (Dismember, Chalice of the Void, Gut Shot, etc.) should stay at least as playable as they were before Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch, with cards like World Breaker becoming significantly worse.

Keep Those Painlands

If you believe in Seer and Reshaper's chances in post-banning Modern, then you'll also believe in the painlands to enable them. We saw the painlands in action all weekend long, not to mention in the weeks leading up to those Grand Prix scenes.

These were by far the most important enabler of the varied Eldrazi strategies. Tired of U/W, R/G, R/W, Bant, and U/R Eldrazi variants? Blame the painlands, which enabled the <> costs while also contributing to the color requirements.

Painlands are likely to remain relevant, even if not quite as dominant, after the April bans.

Main Painlands after the Bans

I'm highlighting these four painlands because they represent the best two-colored Modern combinations that can also support Thought-Knot Seer and/or Matter Reshaper. If you think you've pioneered W/R Midrange or R/G Ponza, then be my guest to add Battlefield Forge and Karplusan Forest to the list.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Caves of Koilos

W/B Death and Taxes, not to mention W/B Hatebears, have a history of Modern success. These decks will love to add Matter Reshaper to their main 60, both as another Aether Vial option and as a board-wipe recovery. The overwhelming majority of this deck gets flipped off Reshaper, which makes it a better Kitchen Finks in all but the most aggressive matchups.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Brushland

If you prefer the G/W route, you get Noble Hierarch and/or Birds of Paradise added to your list. This opens up turn two Reshaper, and also makes Thought-Knot Seer a viable member of your team. Our Grand Prix weekend confirmed that a turn three Seer was almost as brutal as a turn two Seer, and I'm excited to see Hatebears try this out after the bans. Perhaps Abzan Liege joins in too!

Believe in Blue-Based Control

Remember Snapcaster Mage? Cryptic Command? I guess I don't really remember them either, but there's a good chance we'll see these decks return after the April bans. Despite what the Grand Prix fields suggested, U/W Eldrazi won't have a Hallowed Fountain and Path to Exile monopoly much longer!

Leading up to the Eldrazi takeover of Pro Tour Oath, blue-based decks were starting to find their Modern niche. This wasn't quite the blue-based renaissance Wizards expected in the wake of the controversial Splinter Twin ban, but Jeskai, U/W, Esper, and Grixis flavors were all carving out a chunk of Modern territory to at least equal the old URx Twin share (but not to exceed it).

Eldrazi mucked that up, but with Temple and Eye gone, we are likely to return to that balance in April.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Snapcaster Mage

At a mere $60, Snapcaster isn't going to get much lower, and actually stands to increase significantly if blue makes a post-Eldrazi breakout. We've heard whispers of a Shadows over Innistrad-specific Expeditions run, which could feature Snapcaster along with Liliana of the Veil and others, but if those rumors don't pan out Snapcaster is unlikely to drop any time soon.

We didn't see a lot of Snapcaster-powered control over the Grand Prix weekend, and what little appeared was overshadowed by the Eldrazi. That said, we saw a collective 13% of the collective Top 100 Grand Prix metagame on some form of blue-based control split between Jeskai, U/W Control, and Scapeshift (both Temur and Bring to Light). If these decks can appear over the Eldrazi weekend, I'm confident they'll be back to their pre-Eldrazi rates soon.

Other big blue-based control pickups include Supreme Verdict, Pia and Kiran Nalaar, Restoration Angel, and the venerable Cryptic Command. I'm especially bullish on Restoration Angel which is powerful in both Kiki Chord and virtually all of the UWx variants.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Restoration Angel

Between the pre-trends before Pro Tour Oath and the continued presence, even if in diminished form, of blue control during the Eldrazi winter, I'm optimistic we'll see more of these decks in April.

Also, there's a possibility we see an unban to push the metagame back to balance and "apologize" for the outrageous Eldrazi imbalance of the preceding months:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ancestral Vision

Wizards might also decline to unban Vision because they didn't have enough time to see what a Twinless metagame looked like before the Eldrazi took over. That said, they might also decide to unban it anyway as a consolation for the February through April metagame, and to jump-start the new environment after significant bad press and buyout.

Remember to Go Linear

Pop quiz! What is the optimal strategy in an unknown Modern metagame after a major shakeup?

Go Linear and Go Unfair

You get a hearty pat on the back for answering "play Jund," but top marks only go to those being as unfair and linear as possible.

We've seen this in Pro Tour Fate Reforged, which was nothing but Abzan and fast decks trying to go under Abzan. We saw this in Pro Tour Oath, which was saturated with linear decks trying to capitalize on Twin's removal (of course, one deck shined brighter than the rest...). We've also seen it in various intermediate metagames throughout 2014 and 2015, when players weren't sure about the best interactive deck and went linear instead.

Barring an Ancestral Vision unban (and even then, it still might happen), we are likely to see players return to strategies such as Affinity, Infect, Burn, Suicide Zoo, Grishoalbrand, Elves, and insert-unfair-deck-here. This is a natural function of Modern having poor generic answers outside of Bolt and Thoughtseize/Inquisition of Kozilek, which means it's often better to roll the dice on a glass cannon than try and go 55-45 versus a diverse field.

If the Grand Prix weekend and the preceding metagame are any indication, Affinity is clearly the place to be and the deck to buy around.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Inkmoth Nexus

I warned you about Inkmoth for a while now, and although it looks like this train has left the speculation station, I bet Inkmoth's ceiling is even higher than where it's sitting today. Infect and Affinity will continue to be powerhouses after the Eldrazi---Affinity should be at least as powerful as now, and Infect will get even better. Inkmoth will be going on up alongside this deck, and with Wizards discontinuing Event Decks, only Commander products stand in front of more Inkmoth spikes.

If you run these decks, you are likely to experience some measure of success in the banning aftermath. If you invest around these decks, you are likely to make some healthy short-term profits, although be warned that there are few major Modern events until the June Grand Prix tournaments (high-profile events tend to drive spikes).

28 Days to Go!

I'll be posting a "ban them; ban them all" article on the Monday before the April announcement, with some more post-banning speculation as we get closer to that date. It can't come soon enough as far as I'm concerned. Modern has never been so broken, either from a quantitative perspective in the metagame numbers, or a qualitative perspective in the community feedback. We'll all be happy to emerge from this nightmare in less than a month.

We'll keep looking ahead to the post-April world to see how Modern will shape out, so let me know in the comments if you have any questions about the format's direction, certain card prospects, or specific strategies you're interested in after April. See you all in the discussion section!

Rising Miasma: Prepping for GP Eldrazi… Er, Detroit

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Eldrazi this. Eldrazi that. I feel like all I’ve read in the last month about Modern has to do with Eldrazi. Oh wait, that’s because it does all have to do with Eldrazi! Because Modern is an Eldrazi format.

rising miasma art

Grand Prix Detroit begins early tomorrow morning. I and a bunch of other Modern players will be thrown headfirst into a sea of tentacles, eyeballs, skinny legs, and Eye of Ugin activations. Aaron Forsythe will be there, but probably not to engage with us meaningfully about the future of Modern. I bet he’ll be walking around, peering over the carnage, laughing maniacally.

I didn’t work too hard preparing for this GP.  Actually, I don’t think I’ve ever prepared so little for a major event. Still, in this article, I’ll discuss what I wish I were playing, what I will actually play, and how I got there.

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The Power of Bias

Glistener ElfTom Ross and Infect. Frank Karsten and Affinity. Patrick Dickmann and... oops, never mind. Every player has their preference, and Modern has shown us time and again that playing a strategy you're fond of and well-acquainted with yields results. For this reason, I'd advise anyone headed to GP Detroit for fun to play what they like. Sure, the metagame will be warped into oblivion, and Day 2 will probably be overrun with colorless behemoths. But even if Eldrazi makes up a whopping 30% of the overall metagame, odds are slim you'd face the archetype more than a few times on Day 1.

That said, if your goals is to Top 8 the event, you'll need to take a different course entirely - especially if Eldrazi isn't your cup of tea. More on strategically approaching this metagame in the next section. For now, let's focus on the benefits of paying what you know and love.

Why Pick Favorites?

Choosing and playing a deck you enjoy has one very obvious benefit - it ensures you'll have a good time. Few people can play Magic 24 hours a day, and if you're already budgeting your time to fit tournaments or even casual sessions with friends, you'd better be playing something you like. I think part of the reason we hear pros complain about certain formats is because some decks are so strong it would be silly, from a competitive viewpoint, not to play them. That forces these win-minded players to pilot decks they don't necessarily enjoy, and who likes that?

Having intimate knowledge of a deck also benefits players strategically. That knowledge allows them to tweak their lists so they optimally attack a certain metagame, or to make educated decisions while playing.

Playing a pet deck has one notable extra advantage in Modern, a format defined as much by its impetus on players to mulligan aggressively as by anything else. In "Modern Shouldn't Be a Pro Tour Format," Owen Turtenwald goes into some specifics on this theory, eventually writing:

"In most of the matchups I playtested in Modern, the game ended on turn 4. That’s insane! If the game ends on turn 4, you simply don’t have time to draw out of a risky keep. This is untrue of Standard, Draft, and Sealed, where you often play a match where both decks are slow and cumbersome. For that reason, you can keep a wider range of opening hands, because the cards you start with don’t hold all the power over how the game is decided."

Force of WillOwen noticeably excludes Legacy from his list of formats without this heavy incentive to mulligan. In that format, a catch-all, 0-mana answer -- Force of Will -- allows players to keep a wider variety of hands in the dark against opponents who may just lead with Aether Vial, but could also potentially be trying to kill you on turn one with Goblin Charbelcher.

Since Modern lacks these sorts of answers, opening hands carry a huge amount of pressure and frequently get shipped away. Owen dislikes this aspect of Modern, but as someone who very much enjoys taking mulligans, it's one of my favorite things about the format. Taking mulligans can be as simple as shipping hands without Stony Silence, but often, many variables enter the equation. A deeper knowledge of your deck will almost always lead to better mulligan decisions.

What I Like

Over the last decade, I've gotten to know my own preferences pretty well. Here's what I enjoy doing in a game of Magic:

  • Mulliganning aggressively for the right hand
  • Attacking almost every combat phase
  • Interacting with opponents during each stage of the game
  • Winning -- but just barely

With these four aspects of my dream deck in mind, here's what I would have liked to play this weekend.

What I Won't Play in Detroit

I mostly stick to my guns in Modern. Temur Delver has been my favorite Modern deck since Innistrad came out in 2012, and I've played it since.

Monkey Grow, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Hooting Mandrills
1 Snapcaster Mage

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
1 Tarfire
1 Forked Bolt
1 Vapor Snag
3 Thought Scour
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Mana Leak
3 Stubborn Denial
2 Simic Charm

Sorceries

4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Serum Visions

Lands

4 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Stomping Ground
1 Breeding Pool
3 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

3 Huntmaster of the Fells
3 Blood Moon
2 Destructive Revelry
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Pyroclasm
1 Dismember
1 Curiosity
1 Vendilion Clique

If I could, I would bring Temur Delver to GP Detroit. After all, it does everything I like best!

  • Mulliganning: If I don't mulligan with this deck I feel like I'm cheating.
  • Attacking: Just about every turn, besides the first.
  • Interacting: Almost every card in the deck disrupts opposing plays somehow.
  • Winning: Hard to count how many times I've won on three life, or without any cards left in hand.

Unfortunately, I don't think it's playable for a couple reasons.

It's too slow. Since when is turn one Delver, turn two Mandrills "too slow" for Modern? Since Reality Smasher. This deck often disrupts opponents on turn Hooting Mandrillsone and then plays a superior threat on turn two to clean up the mess (for instance, Bolting a Hierarch and slamming Tarmogoyf). That line only works because the turn two play should outclass anything opponents can muster on their own turn two - no two-mana play in Modern outdoes Tarmogoyf or Hooting Mandrills in terms of board presence. From turn three onwards, we can begin attacking and using countermagic to ensure opponents never surpass us on the board.

Against Eldrazi, though, things don't really work that way. Thought-Knot Seer is a turn two play that gives Tarmogoyf and Mandrills a run for their money, while Reality Smasher charges just one mana more to outclass any of Delver's threats at all points of the game.

Splash Damage. In "On Power and Positioning," Merfolk lover Michael Majors describes the influence of splash damage on deck choice:

"Worship, Ensnaring Bridge, and Ghostly Prison, despite not being “hard locks” against Eldrazi, are actually all quite close to that against Merfolk.

Even though I never lost a match to one of the above three cards, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to enter a tournament where, if everyone else is preparing for the best deck just like you are, they are also inadvertently improving their matchup against you."

Temur Delver suffers the same splash damage problem as Merfolk in this metagame. Jund with mainboard Damnation, UW Control decks packed with Condemn and Supreme Verdict, and even proposed strategies as diverse (and creature-heavy) as Wilted Abzan packing Dismembers, Lingering Souls, and Path to Exiles all line up very well against Delver strategies.

What I Will Play At GP Detroit

Here she is, in all her colorless glory:

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Eldrazi Mimic
4 Matter Reshaper
4 Thought-Knot Seer
4 Reality Smasher
2 Endbringer
4 Endless One
4 Simian Spirit Guide

Artifacts

3 Serum Powder
3 Chalice of the Void

Instants

4 Dismember

Lands

1 Sea Gate Wreckage
4 Ghost Quarter
3 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Eye of Ugin
4 Eldrazi Temple
2 Wastes
4 Blinkmoth Nexus
2 Mutavault

Sideboard

3 Ratchet Bomb
1 Crucible of Worlds
3 Relic of Progenitus
2 Warping Wail
2 Spellskite
2 Gut Shot
2 Oblivion Sower

So, how well does Colorless Eldrazi Stompy fit into my fun-spectations?

  • Mulliganning: A+! Serum Powder even adds another dimension to my mulligans.
  • Attacking: Another pass with flying colors. Mimic and Endless One make sure this deck comes out swinging.
  • Interacting: Dismember's an old favorite, as is Chalice of the Void. That's just seven interactive cards, not counting Thought-Knot Seer; this deck is still pretty linear at its core.
  • Winning: When I win, it's not generally by any small margin. I've found you either destroy your opponents with Eldrazi or get crushed yourself.

Colorless Eldrazi Stompy obviously does qualify as a super-enjoyable deck for me. It still hits a couple of my checkmarks. Unfortunately, I think it's the most competitive deck that I can play without absolutely hating myself this weekend.

Explaining the Build

It took me awhile to arrive at this list. I played around with a wild variety of configurations. At one point I ran four Endbringers in the main, and at another I dropped down to one and maxed out on Oblivion Sower. I'd excluded the Matter Reshapers until about a week ago, when I started noticing interactive decks like Jund and Blue Moon making small comebacks locally and online.

Matter ReshaperMatter Reshaper: Turns opposing removal spells into ramp. This deck has more of a late-game in Game 1 than most colorless lists, so Reshaper does more than usual here.

Endbringer: Opponents usually kill Smasher or Seer before I can even cast Endbringer, and when he resolves against an opponent without an answer, he wins the game on his own. I had to drop down to two copies because of his weakness to Dismember, Terminate, and Path to Exile, but having Reshapers as additional removal magnets helps a great deal. Endbringer helps against aggressive decks and can beat opponents trying to lock us out with Ensnaring Bridge, so I prefer him to Oblivion Sower right now. If I could modify the list for Day 2 only, I’d play Sowers main instead - that card just dominates the mirror.

Serum PowderSerum Powder: I’m down to three Powders after cutting one for a fourth Matter Reshaper. I did a bunch of opening hand tests to see whether Powder helped or hurt more, and I still think it does enough to merit inclusion. Finding Sol lands before the game begins helps race UW or GR Eldrazi, but post-board I cut the Powders against Eldrazi decks that might bring in Sower. Luckily, nobody mainboards the 5/8. The primary opportunity cost of playing Powder main is room for interactive spells like Ratchet Bomb and Spellskite, which then find themselves in the sideboard. Since we have no way to dig for these cards during a game, not all games are guaranteed to go long, and these cards especially help against faster decks anyway, I’m okay with this trade-off if it means increasing my Sol land consistency.

Chalice of the Void: I’ve been playing Chalice in Eldrazi since Oath of the Gatewatch was first spoiled, and I still think it has a place in the deck, even with the largely impervious other Eldrazi decks boasting a 30% metagame share. Against those decks, Chalice at least shuts off Ancient Stirrings and Path to Exile, one of the best outs to an Endbringer in Modern.

I tried moving three Chalices to the sideboard at one point to play Gut Shot instead. Gut Shot had a lot more relevance against Colorless Eldrazi Stompy, but was even worse than Chalice against UW and GR. Killing a Skyspawner stinks since opponents keep the Scion, and the deck lacks any other targets for Gut Shot besides Eldrazi Mimic. Additionally, the Simian Spirit Guides do much less in the mainboard without Chalice, and Chalice from the sideboard performs much worse than it should without Guides in the deck. I’m down to three copies of Chalice main instead of four, but haven’t yet missed the last one. In matchups where I need the artifact badly, Serum Powder helps me mulligan into it.

SB - Ratchet Bomb: Bomb has tested very well for me out of the board, killing a swarm of Scions or huge Endless Ones from Eldrazi, hard-to-answer permanents like Worship, or dorks and attackers in Infect.

SB - Crucible of Worlds: Crucible may become a third Sower before the tournament starts, because sometimes the artifact does nothing. Most Eldrazi decks max out at two basics, though, and I’ve locked a few players out of games by recurring Ghost Quarters once they’ve searched for Island and Plains.

Ensnaring BridgeSB - Ensnaring Bridge: Just kidding! I played Ensnaring Bridge in my first Endbringer list, but have since cut them. Many Eldrazi lists popping up are beginning to play Endbringer in the main as a one-off to beat Ensnaring Bridge in Game 1, and others pack him in the sideboard, sometimes with their own Bridges. In the mirror, UW has Disenchant, and GR has Ancient Grudge and World Breaker, all of which means bad news for the Bridge plan. UW can also disrupt this angle with a Worship, which stops Endbringer from pinging. (Fun fact: I tried cards as silly as Pierce Strider to get around Worship with a Chalice at 2 on the field to protect against Disenchant. You can guess how that worked out - I’m back up to three Ratchet Bombs now!)

Motivation and Consistency

Leading up to GP Charlotte, I poured months into building the perfect Temur Delver list. Despite some crushing losses to Jund right before and at the start of Day 2, Delver performed very well, and I had a great time piloting the deck I’d spent so much time on.

That won’t happen this weekend. I don’t even know if my deck isn’t just a worse UW Eldrazi. Some more testing would probably let me know, but it was hard for me to self-motivate and build something better for this GP. I don’t think I’ll win or necessarily come close. I’m sure it will still be fun - I’ve never been to Detroit, and can’t wait to see my beloved format in its death throes.

Eye of UginThere are two reasons I prepared so casually for Detroit. First, after a lot of testing for the Gatewatch, I realized nothing was even close to as good as Eldrazi. Navigating a broken format just isn’t very appealing to me.

Second, I don’t think the Eldrazi mirror match comes down to skill. Skill is a factor I value highly when it comes to competitive play, which is why I favor tricky decks like Temur Delver. Eldrazi is mostly about playing threats on curve and drawing a bunch of Sol lands. In studying mirror matches and playing them myself, I’ve found Eldrazi to be more variance-based than most decks; when it opens a bunch of Sol lands, it wins, and when it doesn’t, it loses. That’s not my kind of Magic, and being exposed to it so much - either on my side of the table, or on the other - has turned me off from Modern significantly.

"Eye" of the Storm

On the bright side, GP Detroit should put the final nail in the coffin for Eldrazi. Despite my whining, I’ve really enjoyed watching the weird journey Modern has taken since Thought-Knot Seer took over the format, and all that oppression will culminate in something truly bizarre this weekend. Good luck to everyone attending the GP, and to all those at home in store for a hundred more Eldrazi feature matches!

Jordan Boisvert

Jordan is Assistant Director of Content at Quiet Speculation and a longtime contributor to Modern Nexus. Best known for his innovations in Temur Delver and Colorless Eldrazi, Jordan favors highly reversible aggro-control decks and is always striving to embrace his biases when playing or brewing.

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Posted in Modern, TournamentsTagged , , 6 Comments on Rising Miasma: Prepping for GP Eldrazi… Er, Detroit

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