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Insider: MTGO Market Report for January 20th, 2016

Posted on January 20, 2016January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Matthew Lewis. The report will cover a range of topics, including a summary of set prices and price changes for redeemable sets, a look at the major trends in various constructed formats, and a trade of the week section that highlights a particular speculative strategy with an example and accompanying explanation.

As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before buying or selling any digital objects. Questions will be answered and can be sent via private message or posted in the article comments.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of January 18^th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Flashback Draft of the Week

The full, original Mirrodin block flashback drafts start today. With two weeks of Mirrodin boosters being cracked, the artifact lands like Seat of the Synod and Great Furnace can be found for substantially less than their historical price peaks. Other common staples like Chromatic Sphere and Molten Rain are also on sale. Novice speculators and those looking to fill out a collection should be looking to cards like these as buys.

The middle set of the block, Darksteel, doesn't have a splashy top end, but there are still some Pauper staples worth looking for. Chittering Rats and Spire Golem are two to start with. Blue cards (and honourary blue cards like the flying golem) are out of favor after the recent banning of Cloud of Faeries in Pauper, but blue is never out of fashion for very long.

Players should be careful not to pass Auriok Champion out of their Fifth Dawn booster as this rare tips the scales at over 25 tix. The common and uncommon slot also holds some nice picks. Modern staples Serum Visions and Night's Whisper are two cards to try and pick up at a discount this weekend.

Modern

The impact of the Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom ban is still rippling through the MTGO economy. Everything outside of Twin and Amulet decks is seeing a boost at the moment as players and bots make their bets on what will be played and what will be good.

It's not clear where the dust will settle yet, and the metagame doesn't yet include the Eldrazi decks with Oath of the Gatewatch (OGW) cards. Nowhere is the excitement around this new deck more obvious than with the price of Magic 2015 sets this week, both in paper and on MTGO. Double-digit gains across the board are unusual and can be attributed to price gains by Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth.

Speculators and players should carefully consider any Modern cards they are holding at the moment for potential sales. The froth in the market is very real at the moment and the Modern Pro Tour is getting closer by the day. The time to be selling is now.

Standard

Standard is in a bit of a lull with all the attention paid to Modern in the past week. MTGO prices on Standard sets are drifting with a downward bias. Keep your powder dry and refrain from making any large speculative moves on Standard cards until OGW is released at the end of the month.

Fate Reforged (FRF) at 43 tix for a set is starting to look like it has good value. Relative to paper, the set is at a level that redemption will support. There is some rebound potential in Warden of the First Tree as it has dipped to 2 tix yet is still heavily played in Standard. Any renewed interest in the format will show up in a bump in the price of this card.

Standard Boosters

FRF boosters continue to drift down and are approaching an attractive price level. If OGW release events drive the price down into the 1.4 to 1.6 tix range, these should be considered a buy as the rebound potential from that level is high.

KTK boosters have been very stable in the 3.2 to 3.3 tix range. This will be a buy during OGW release events at any price below this range.

BFZ boosters have shown strength in the last week, getting above 3.6 tix for the first time in the new year. At current prices upside is limited, but a dip back below 3.4 would be a signal for speculators and players to pay closer attention.

The bad news is that BFZ boosters will be awarded for OGW release events. This means there will be ample supply of boosters as the sealed queues take in tix or play points, and pay out in BFZ and OGW boosters. There is no expectation of higher prices on BFZ boosters until OGW release events end.

DTK and ORI boosters remain at or above 4 tix and thus have zero speculative potential. The market is supply constrained on these boosters, so the prevailing market price remains roughly equivalent to the store price.

Trade of the Week

The Market Report portfolio has started with an initial allocation of 500 tix. Find the portfolio at this link. The first trade this week is related to the shakeup of the Modern format. With Twin, the gold standard of combo decks, getting the axe there's room for other combo decks to come off the bench and shine.

A deck that got some exposure after Khans of Tarkir was released was the Jeskai Ascendancy combo deck. This deck featured mana accelerators like Birds of Paradise and Sylvan Caryatid, the aforementioned enchantment, and then numerous cantrips and card drawing spells in order to combo off and attack with large creatures.

This deck originally had Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time as powerful card drawing spells before they were banned. A newer version has surfaced in the MTGO leagues, piloted to numerous 5-0 finishes by user daibloXSC. The key card drawing spell is Visions of Beyond from Magic 2012. The deck also features Monastery Mentor as its primary threat.

With a similar tempo-control profile and almost a combo finish, Twin players could very well gravitate to this deck in an uncertain metagame. Visions of Beyond is from an older set and a supply crunch on this card would send it much higher. It's been climbing in recent weeks, but is still a solid pick from an under-the-radar deck.

The strategy is to hold this card until the Modern metagame gets more established at the Pro Tour. If this decks breaks out, Visions of Beyond could easily double in price. A no-show for this deck in Atlanta would mean a reassessment of this trade.

Brewing with OGW- Jeskai Ascendancy Combo

Posted on January 20, 2016January 20, 2016 by Ryan Overturf

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There are some flashy cards soaking up a lot of attention in Oath of the Gatewatch, but there are some subtle elements as well. Expedite is a card that is getting some attention as a card that could have significant impact on Standard, and Slip Through Space gives us another one mana cantrip. These cards play very well with the prowess mechanic, and one of the most interesting ideas that I've heard is to play them in a Jeskai Ascendancy deck- the biggest "prowess" effect available in Standard. An idea that a local player was working when I was at FNM last week was to use Ascendancy and these cheap cantrips to kill people in one big turn by using Rattleclaw Mystic and Elemental Uprising to generate mana. Here's an early draft of the deck:

Jeskai Ascendancy Combo

Creatures

4 Rattleclaw Mystic

4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Spells

4 Magmatic Insight

4 Tormenting Voice

4 Treasure Cruise

4 Slip Through Space

4 Elemental Uprising

4 Expedite

4 Jeskai Ascendancy

Lands

1 Canopy Vista

2 Cinder Glade

1 Forest

1 Mountain

1 Plains

1 Prairie Stream

4 Windswept Heath

4 Wooded Foothills

1 Island

4 Flooded Strand

4 Wandering Fumarole

This deck doesn't do anything. And then it kills you. It's perfect.

It's probable that some form of disruption is necessary in the form of cheap spot removal or Dispel to back up your combo, but at least until the deck is a known quantity you should be able to steel wins in game one. Until it becomes clear that you need maindeck disruption, I like just running this completely streamlined list with maximum ability to filter through the deck and find the combo pieces. You want your odds of untapping with Jeskai Ascendancy and be able to just kill the opponent to be as high as possible. Your opponent will probably just kill Rattleclaw Mystic on sight, but at least the grip of draw spells will help you search for backup creatures at a much faster rate than your opponent can find removal spells.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jeskai Ascendancy

Expedite is great in this deck, as it enables you to go off with Rattleclaw Mystic the turn that you play it, and it also plays very well with Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. If you're concerned that your opponent is going to kill Jace and you have at least three cards in your graveyard, you're able to just Expedite in response to the removal spell which will enable you to activate and flip Jace.

Wandering Fumarole acts as your third option for a creature that "combos" with Ascendancy, which might seem worse than Lumbering Falls, though ultimately I don't think Lumbering Falls is actually workable. Hexproof would be nice, but you're usually going to need to cast multiple red and blue spells on the turn that you go off, so that makes a UG land kind of a non-starter. Also Fumarole just works way better with the manabase given the lands that you can fetch in this color set.

If you love durdling and/or are a combo player, then this is a great starting point for Standard. The deck has some clear vulnerabilities, but you're able to go off on turn four, and you have a lot of ability draw into more action assuming that your opponent doesn't pressure your life total too aggressively.

The True Danger of the Splinter Twin Ban

Posted on January 19, 2016 by Sheridan Lardner

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By now you've read at least a dozen articles, a hundred tweets, and a thousand forum posts about the January 18th banlist update. The response to Splinter Twin's banning is likely to surpass the reaction to all previous Modern ban announcements combined, as the community rages, celebrates, and grieves for for months to come. I for one am feeling no better today than in my Saturday article on the banning, and I expect this won't change for much of 2016. Many others share my general sentiment but I believe most of their anger and fear is misplaced. A Twinless Modern metagame doesn't worry me, especially in the long-term where Twin's death opens up a lot of space for new cards. A Modern format where the DCI bans Splinter Twin before a Pro Tour, however, is a much more worrisome prospect.

It's no secret Pro Tour Oath of the Gatewatch was a major factor, even if not the deciding factor, in Splinter Twin's banning. Aaron Forsythe tweeted it on at least two separate occasions over the weekend, former Modern mastermind Tom LaPille predicted this in a 2015 interview, and numerous articles (e.g. MTG Goldfish and The Meadery) have also remarked on the relationship between this ban and the Pro Tour. Was it the sole factor? No: both the update and Forsythe's tweets suggest other elements were at play. But it was certainly a critical decider in Twin's demise, enough that Forsythe tweeted suggestively about it all weekend, and enough that most authors seem to agree on its importance.

Today, I'm not going to discuss the existence of that relationship or the relative weights of different factors. Nor will I talk too much about that wretched Summer Bloom and its much-deserved ban. Instead, I am going to talk about the metagame implications and format consequences of Twin's removal. One of those shouldn't worry you at all. The other should cause deep uncertainty and anxiety.

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The Good: Metagame Implications

Most Modern consumers are freaking out about the metagame consequences of this ban. As unhappy as I am with the Twin side of the update, I can't join the masses in this assessment. I believe the Modern metagame will remain quite healthy in the mid-term and long-run, even if it goes through some initial growing pains as it rebuilds without the URx Twin pillar.

The URx Twin collective was an integral policing force in Modern, setting a speed limit on the format and forcing other decks to pack interaction or flat-out lose on turn four. Losing Twin could point to a devolution into a linear arms-race, where players scrape for the fastest and least-interactive turn two or turn three win without worrying about Deceiver Exarch gumming up their plans. Immediate beneficiaries include Affinity, RG Tron, Bogles, Ad Nauseam, Suicide Death's Shadow Zoo, Infect, and a horde of similar strategies which appear poised to dominate Modern. Affinity in particular looks to disproportionately profit from this banning: if the deck could maintain 10%-12% shares with Twin in the format, imagine what it will do after! Could this linear-dominance play out in the short-term, namely during Pr Tour Oath of the Gatewatch? Certainly. Is it likely to be sustained into the summer and beyond? I am betting against it.

From a Stage 1 metagame perspective, there are plenty of decks which can take Twin's place to combat the Stage 0 linear strategies. This includes Scapeshift and Jeskai Control, particularly the more proactive Kiki-Jiki, Mirrorbreaker/Restoration Angel Jeskai strategies we saw during Shaun McLaren's run at Grand Prix Minneapolis 2014. These kinds of decks are, for the most part, worse than Twin but still very powerful at reining in non-interactive foes. Canny players will turn to them in the ban's immediate aftermath to gain an edge in a metagame that might be too polarized away from interaction. Those linear decks might also work against each other, cannibalizing each other's shares instead of rising up as a bloc. For example, Tron improves with Twin's departure, but gets worse with an inevitable Infect rise.

More importantly, the historical context of Modern tends to arc towards balance in the absence of truly broken decks. We saw a 25%-30% Abzan metagame during Pro Tour Fate Reforged, which gradually gave way to Grixis, Jund, Tron, and a host of other decks emerging to restore format equilibrium. We saw the June metagame normalize around fair Grixis and Jund decks when everyone panicked about Tron and Bloom. In the last months of 2015, we saw a balanced vanguard of format regulars police a disturbingly linear October metagame. Twin was undoubtedly a factor in all that regulation, but as long as we find 1-2 decks to take Twin's role, it suggests the metagame itself isn't inherently broken and incapable of self-correction. Moreover, Twin had nothing to do with the Abzan decline, which further points to the metagame being able to make adjustments around other strategies. We've also seen Jund survive two bannings and emerge as a consistent Tier 1 contender, and we've seen Modern recover after the Birthing Pod ban into its healthiest metagames since its founding. The Pod mages even got a Tier 2 replacement in Collected Company Abzan decks, which could bode well for Twin expats looking into Jeskai Kiki Control or Blue Moon.

All of this has me cautiously optimistic for the 2016 metagame itself: the arguments in favor of self-regulation are at least as strong as, and probably stronger than, those about a linear takeover.

Worried about the future of Modern's much-lauded diversity? Get out there and start brewing! Or just sling your favorite deck with some sideboard changes and trust in the format's arc towards balance.

The Bad: Format Implications

I'm genuinely excited to see the metagame's evolution with Splinter Twin out of the picture. The same cannot be said about my prognosis for Modern as a format. Before we get any deeper into that sentiment, no, Modern is not dying. No, Modern is unlikely to become a failed Extended 2.0. No, Wizards is not trying to kill Modern. These panic-mongering stances are no better than the ban mania we saw all last year. Nor is it better than the inevitable ban mania that will roar even louder in 2016. I urge players to adopt more measured views on how Twin's banning is likely to help and hurt Modern in the future. If nothing else, I'm sure the upcoming Pro Tour will be the most-watched of its kind to-date, and that will be largely due to the ban and interest in a post-Twin Modern.

Unfortunately, these possible gains do not minimize the likely costs of a Twin banning. As I said in my Saturday article, as I and others observed in the comments of that article, and as many other Moderners discussed all weekend, this ban suggests a scenario most of us rightly fear: Modern has become a rotating format. In this new Modern, cards (not sets) get "rotated" out of the format as part of Wizards' plan to ensure format diversity and to shake things up at an annual Pro Tour. Although those cards may have been bannable independently of Pro Tour pressures (and other money-making demands), the Pro Tour rotation forces Wizards' hand and expedites the banning before the metagame can naturally police an offending deck. The end result could be the leading Tier 1 deck suffering an annual ban solely to ensure a more interesting Pro Tour.

Wizards has not outwardly stated this as a format or banlist goal, even though Forsythe's comments on Twitter are suggestive. That said, the mere possibility of this situation is enough to cause a major problem for Modern. The reality of this situation would, of course, be worse still.

From 2013 until 2016, Wizards has brought the ban axe down on a Tier 1 deck in every January update. Taken individually, each of those cards (especially Deathrite Shaman, Birthing Pod, the delve sorceries) had significant quantitative and qualitative evidence underlying their banning. Taken together, however, it's hard for a new or veteran Modern player not to identify a pattern. This is true even if no actual pattern exists! Even if I didn't write this article to acknowledge these possibilities, Modern players across the world would still process these announcements, particularly the Twin banning, as a signal that Wizards is imposing artificial rotations to spice up a Pro Tour and coverage-heavy format.

Why would such an explicit, implicit, or simply imagined policy be a problem for Modern players? As I wrote in Saturday's piece, Modern was promised as "the nonrotating format without the card availability issues of Legacy". It was not promised as "the semi-rotating format without the card availability issues of Legacy, where decks can be banned not because they are necessarily unhealthy but because they make coverage a bit more boring". Modern players process this as a betrayal of a fundamental promise at Modern's core. This is true both for the Modern diehards who would stick around even if Lightning Bolt got banned (I, however, would not), and true of those newcomers who want a nonrotating format but don't want their investment jeopardized to an annual ban update.

I admit that the concept of a "betrayal" may be a bit strongly worded with respect to this announcement. But from reading comments across the internet, even by high-level players who have been critical of Modern in the past, it's the term that most readily comes to mind. I also admit this isn't the most quantitative argument I've made on this site, and I've had a few Modern/Magic friends ask me if I found these kinds of viewpoints to be unsupportable or unprofessional. I do not. I believe the overwhelming majority of Moderners feel this way as well, and although the metagame as a whole will likely be fine, format faith has been shaken. I also believe it's important to acknowledge the discomfort this update has caused players and our readers, and articles like this aim to be in dialogue with that. Honestly, this discomfort is not misplaced. It will be hard to defend against ban mania in the coming year with this banning fresh in our minds. Maybe Wizards really would ban Tarmogoyf just to shake up a Pro Tour.

Thankfully, Wizards can fix this through communication. If Wizards more clearly articulates their goals for Modern, we won't be left scouring Google to find tidbits of information on their esoteric ways. If Wizards did a monthly Modern check-in, we wouldn't have to ask leading questions all over Twitter just to get some clarity about a decision or the format's direction. Looking back to last year, if we had known that supporting the 2016 Modern Pro Tour would lead to a Splinter Twin ban, or just increase the likelihood of a ban period, I'm betting most people wouldn't have supported it at all. This communication gap does not inspire long-term format confidence and has gone from a strange Modern oddity to a real problem in light of this banning.

I believe this will be a good year for Modern as more players jump into the format. But I also believe, even though I have no controlled experiment to prove it yet, that Modern's growth will be less than it would have been with no Twin banning. Player confidence in Modern has been undermined, and I suspect this will undercut the format's potential, even if it won't destroy the format altogether.

Life After the Splinter Twin Banning

Metagame and format consequences aside, there are plenty of other possibilities which can rise from Twin's ashes. Ancestral Vision and Stoneforge Mystic look a lot safer now than they did a month ago. Jace, the Mind Sculptor too, even though we still have a pricing issue for that banlist inmate. We might also see Counterspell and other blue cards enter Modern now that Twin isn't around to abuse them, which could improve the format's health and diversity over time. There is no indication that Twin's banning was caused by these possibilities, but it's impossible to deny that they are now on the table as options.

Sadly, these silver linings and Modern's metagame resilience don't detract from the update's blow to our collective confidence. They don't draw my attention away from the possibility that Modern really is becoming (or has always been?) a rotating format, where Wizards induces change through high-profile bans. Other players share this feeling and I am disappointed Wizards has put us in that position, or at least done nothing to dissuade us from that opinion. Maybe we'll see some clarification in the coming weeks or months, and I hold out hope for better Modern management. Until that happens, however, I'm nervous about what this means for next year and our time, money, and emotional investments into decks.

I want to apologize to everyone for not responding to all your Saturday comments individually. It's hard to get back to everyone with all the banlist buzz, but know I'm reading your thoughts and have you all in mind in articles like this. Let me know in the comments what you think about the update, today's piece, the future of Modern and Modern Pro Tours, the metagame, price volatility as a result of the ban, and really anything else you want to get off your chest. All of those topics could make great follow-up stories, and I'd love to talk more in the comments.

Insider: Specs in a Twinless Modern

Posted on January 19, 2016January 17, 2022 by Brian DeMars

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Goodbye Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom, we barely knew ye...

What we do know is that two of the objectively best decks in Modern have been banished to the realm of history.

Even nixing two of the best decks isn't going to slow down the juggernaut that is Modern Magic. The format looks to continue gaining in popularity, and with a Pro Tour, a new set, and a new Twinless "wild west" format to explore things are going to get crazy.

As this is a finance speculation column, today I'm going to talk about ten cards that just got a whole lot better and are worth considering as Modern investments. I've been pretty hot at picking winners the last few months, so let's take a look at some cards that seem primed to rise now that the format is clearly going to change in the coming month.

I'm not going to talk about the ones that have already spiked. The boat has already sailed on Goryo's Vengeance and Scapeshift. However, there are still plenty of other cards that are ready to jump in price.

Wurmcoil Engine

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wurmcoil Engine

Honestly, my Wurmcoil Engine pick is just emblematic of the entire G/R Tron archetype. I think there's a significant chance that many, or even all, of the cards in the deck see growth in the coming weeks. Twin has been known to have a favorable Tron match-up and without Twin in the format to give UrzaTron fits I see it becoming "the deck to beat in Modern."

The King is dead. Long live the King Karn.

The great thing about Tron is that it traditionally crushes all of the "fair" decks. Most midrange decks simply cannot compete with its ridiculous mana output and gigantic over-the-top threats. There are plenty of worse things we can do in Modern than straight-up crush the Jund match-up.

I picked Wurmcoil because it has a modest $25 price tag compared to many of the other cards (Grove of the Burnwillows, Oblivion Stone or Karn Liberated. However, if Tron asserts itself as the new "best deck" in Modern I fully expect all of these cards to go up in value to some extent.

Consider also that all of the players who were playing Twin will now need to move in on new decks, which may require a lot of players to be in the market to pick up cards. Demand is what drives prices, and coupled with an upward trend in prices already this could lead to even more Modern growth.

Gavony Township

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gavony Township

I'm not saying there are no longer combo decks in Modern but when you simultaneously nix two of the best combo decks in one swift stroke it opens up the battlefield for fair decks. Yes, there will be new unfair decks to deal with but winning the midrange mirror is going to be a big thing in the coming weeks and Township plays a big part in that battle.

This utility land is one of the ultimate trumps in the "fair deck" battle. Township has long sat as a cheap rare but not for much longer, I estimate. I really like the way that various Collected Company creature decks look with regard to metagame position, and Township will play a big role in such an environment. Also, it's worth noting that Abzan decks with Lingering Souls will also love utilizing Gavony Township.

Speak of the devil...

Lingering Souls

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lingering Souls

At about $0.50 a copy, one could do a lot worse than bet on Lingering Souls. The card is very good and in many ways format-defining of Modern. It is a great card advantage card in midrange mirror matches and also a stone cold house against Affinity.

Lingering Souls is also great with and against Liliana of the Veil. I expect that card to see more play now that Twin isn't around to punish people for tapping out for her.

The biggest weakness of Lingering Souls has always been fast combo decks. Fast combo decks exactly like the ones that just got banned! I would be shocked if Lingering Souls wasn't omnipresent at the upcoming Pro Tour and wasn't a format-defining card in Modern moving forward.

Etched Champion

There was an error retrieving a chart for Etched Champion

A few of the Affinity cards have already seen pretty significant gains since the Twin banning. I think some of the other role-player type cards may well follow suit in the coming weeks. Etched Champion did see a Modern Masters 2015 reprinting, but we've seen recently with the Eldrazi lands that those reprintings don't necessarily mean cards can't go up in value.

Especially if Lingering Souls and other green-white creature decks become more popular in the coming weeks, I predict Etched Champion will play a big role in punching through creature stalls with Cranial Plating.

Blinkmoth Nexus

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blinkmoth Nexus

The same can be said of a card like Blinkmoth Nexus, also sitting in the five-dollar range. It has seen reprints but is getting better in the metagame as Affinity will undoubtedly continue to separate itself as a tier one deck. It also helps that Affinity (in no small part because of its manlands) has a good UrzaTron match-up.

Affinity may well be the most played deck in Modern now that Twin is gone (alongside Tron), and betting on the cheap rares is typically a pretty safe bet. They can't really go down in value as demand continues to climb and there's a significant chance they will go up.

Angel's Grace

There was an error retrieving a chart for Angel's Grace

The Ad Nauseam combo deck could make waves as the next big Modern combo deck. The deck is pretty solid and any card from the deck would be interesting to speculate on. There will always be a premium on decks that can just end the game on turn four or five by casting a few busted spells and this particular archetype could be a front-runner combo deck in the new format.

The deck is kind of a dark horse but I've played with and against it and have gained a lot of respect for it. It's very quick and basically puts players to the test of "counterspell or bust."

Phyrexian Unlife

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Unlife

Speaking of undervalued cards in the Ad Naus deck, Phyrexian Unlife is sitting pretty at about a buck right now. There are far worse investments that just throwing $25 bucks at a bunch of copies of this card and sitting on them.

If the deck becomes a real contender I'd expect that price tag to go up six times at least. The card is also from New Phyrexia, a popular and short-printed set, which will also help the value creep up.

Pyromancer Ascension

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pyromancer Ascension

Speaking of broken combo decks...

Storm now seems uncontested as the premier fast, blue-based combo deck in Modern. The deck was always a little bit less resilient than Twin and couldn't really play the beatdown game, but now that Twin is gone it may be the best combo option left. The deck certainly doesn't lack the explosiveness of Twin and can even win on turn three at a reasonable clip.

I think a lot of Twin mages will gravitate toward the Storm deck. It's powerful, just as fast as the Twin deck was, and in many ways less vulnerable to the kind of hate that people play. You can't break up the combo with a Path to Exile, after all!

Past in Flames

There was an error retrieving a chart for Past in Flames

Same principle as the other combo cards here. Past in Flames is also a mythic rare which a lot of people don't remember and it isn't as easy to pick up as one might think. If Storm crushes at the Pro Tour, which I wouldn't bet against, expect that the storm staples will all hit the $15-$20 range.

The Scapeshifts, Goryo's Vengeances, and Through the Breaches of Modern are similarly narrow combo cards that already occupy $25+ price tags, and I don't really understand why the Storm cards are so much lower. The aforementioned cards are a little bit older but far less played than the Storm cards.

I'd also argue that Storm is a much better and much more proven deck than those other alternatives. In fact, I've actually been trying to pick up as many of the Storm cards as possible since I heard that Twin and Amulet got banned.

Even though they banned the two best combo decks in the format I still believe Modern is a combo format at its core. While it does open up some room for midrange and creature decks to have a better chance, there will always be unfair decks to prey on people who want to grind and durdle.

There is a ton of excitement right now surrounding Modern and I encourage all of you investors to be on the lookout for good deals on some of these cards that are primed to make gains in the future.

I'm very much looking forward to digging in and playing more games of Modern now that Twin and Bloom are gone. I think both of these bannings will help generate more interest in the format and ultimately be good moves for Modern. Good moves for Modern means more popularity for the format and additionally more growth.

Good luck! And enjoy not getting Twinned and Bloomed. I know I will.

Insider: Predicting Modern Metagame Changes After the Bannings

Posted on January 19, 2016January 17, 2022 by David Schumann

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Welcome back, readers! So we had a prerelease this past Friday night for Oath of the Gatewatch. Anyone care to guess the card that was most traded on PucaTrade?

That's right, Splinter Twin. Thanks to the latest Modern bannings from WotC, this once proud staple has now plummeted in value and people are desperate to lock in whatever remaining value they can. Buylists have adjusted accordingly and what was once viewed by many as an underpriced speculation opportunity is now headed to the bulk bin.

I myself got hit holding my personal four copies, though I was able to out my four speculation copies in time. I imagine many others were not so fortunate.

Splinter Twin decks have been around since Modern's inception as a format, and to have survived this long only to suddenly get hit by the banhammer does show a change in WotC's philosophy regarding its premier eternal format.

The metagame changes will obviously be significant. It will be interesting to play Modern without fear of the dreaded turn three flash in Deceiver Exarch, tap your land, turn four, untap, Twin you.

While I had hoped for some unbannings to go along with any bannings, the nerfing of Modern's premier combo deck might open up the door for control decks to get a foothold. In light of the likely death of Splinter Twin as an archetype (technically they do still have Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker), let's review which cards are expected to lose value and which will likely gain.

The Losers

The most obvious cards to lose value are the ones that were specific to the Splinter Twin (and Summer Bloom) archetypes. Namely:

Defunct Archetype Staples

These cards were almost exclusively played in the banned decks. They've already lost plenty of value, and are likely to drop further in the near future.

Other cards that may drop a bit:

Some of you may be wondering about that last one. U/R Twin was one of the biggest adopters of Blood Moon. With the death of the Twin archetype we're likely to see a resurgence in non-red decks (or red ones that don't really want to play their own Blood Moon like Jund and/or Grixis) and thus a reduction in Blood Moon.

However, I will leave the caveat that if enough decks lose respect for Blood Moon in the format we may see a resurgence in the Blue Moon-style decks of a few years back.

The Gainers

Now that we've gone through what's likely to drop, let's look at what has potential to gain value.

Chord of Calling

There was an error retrieving a chart for Chord of Calling

The death of Splinter Twin and Amulet Bloom decks will likely that mean previous top-tier decks will gain some market share. Abzan versions (especially Abzan Company) will likely see a boost in demand. There's also a strong chance we'll see a lot more Tron decks (thanks to some of the cards from Oath, like Warping Wail and Kozilek, the Great Distortion).

These Abzan Company decks rely on Fulminator Mage to help keep Tron in check, and Chord is a good way to tutor for one, in addition to providing an all-inclusive tutor for any missing combo pieces.

Fulminator Mage

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fulminator Mage

As mentioned above, with a likely increase in Tron decks Fulminator Mage becomes much more desirable as one of the premier non-basic land hate cards in the format. Thanks to the hybrid mana cost it can fit in any deck playing either red or black, and there are enough ways to recur creatures in the format to make it more desirable than either Molten Rain or Rain of Tears.

Batterskull

There was an error retrieving a chart for Batterskull

While we didn't get Stoneforge Mystic back, this card's printings are still limited to a mythic in New Phyrexia and a GP Promo (granted it was given out a ton).

I imagine Tron decks will still stick with Wurmcoil Engine as their lifelinking threat of choice. But if we see a Blue Moon type of deck arise again in Modern (thanks to an expected reduction of Blood Moons with Twin gone) then Batterskull will likely remain the win condition of choice as it provides both an aggressor and a solid defender in one.

Shadow of Doubt

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shadow of Doubt

We've already seen a huge spike in Scapeshift as many Twin players try to convert to another combo-control deck that utilizes at least some of the same cards (mainly the mana base). Shadow of Doubt is a very good hate card which thanks to the large number of fetches in the format is almost always live, and a cantripping Stifle is going to remain powerful against a lot of decks. Again the hybrid mana cost allows it to fit in more decks than usual.

Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

There was an error retrieving a chart for Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle

With Scapeshift having already jumped, it seems highly likely that the actual win condition of the deck will also see a rise in value. It was a promo and was likely printed in larger numbers (being from a newer set released around the time of a large playerbase increase), but it doesn't make a lot of sense that half of the combo is $65 and the other is $5.

Cryptic Command

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

Cryptic Command was (for a long time) the premier "command" in Modern. With the release of the Dragons of Tarkir command cycle, Kolaghan's Command has become the most played command in Modern. With the death of Twin/Bloom and a rise in Scapeshift (which happens to play Cryptic Command already) we may see the format slow down a bit, in spite of the super aggressive strategies of Burn/Affinity. That opens the door for arguably the best counterspell in the format.

I fully expect to see a resurgence in control-style decks (most likely Esper or Jeskai variants) which found a home for Cryptic. If this does start to go up you can also expect the filter lands that produce double blue to see a bump as well (since Cryptic's biggest hindrance is its extremely specific mana cost).

Griselbrand

There was an error retrieving a chart for Griselbrand

I realize this one is a bit of a long shot, but Grishoalbrand is one of the fastest combo decks in the format. Granted it has consistency issues, but if Modern slows down a bit then this is the exact type of deck that could post one or two good showings and see its key components skyrocket.

Goryo's Vengeance is already a $30 card, but the key reanimation target is at an all-time low of $13. Griselbrand also occasionally finds a home in Gifts decks, which again benefit greatly from a slower format.

Gifts Ungiven

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gifts Ungiven

Last, but not least we have one of my pet favorites. Gifts Ungiven is one of the most powerful control cards in Modern. I say control because unlike true combo decks, Gifts strategies tend to cut their win condition down to just one "Gifts package" and surround it with a control shell (similar to how many Legacy decks utilize Stoneforge Mystic).

The beauty of this strategy is that the package itself doesn't have to account for a lot of deck space---typically 2-3 Gifts Ungiven, 1-2 Unburial Rites, and then 1-3 reanimation targets (usually Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite; Iona, Shield of Emeria, and Griselbrand).

If durdling with Cryptic Command gets better, expect the same to apply to Gifts Ungiven.

It will be interesting to see the Modern meta develop at the upcoming Pro Tour and beyond into this year. While the cards mentioned above are certainly well positioned, we may also see the arrival of one or more entirely new archetypes. The sky's the limit on anything that hits that big, but predicting what will is obviously a challenge.

What are your thoughts on the future of the Modern metagame? Anything obvious I've missed in my analysis? Let me know in the comments.

Bans in Modern and Rally in Standard

Posted on January 19, 2016January 18, 2016 by Eric Hawkins

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I wanted to start off with a little bit about the Modern bannings. I will keep this short as you are most likely sick of hearing about this by now- I mean, it has been, like, three days already. For those who somehow haven't heard, both Splinter Twin and Summer Bloom have been banned in Modern.

Most of us saw the banning of something in the Amulet Bloom deck, people have been calling for it for sometime now. While I'm not sure it was necessarily needed, I'm not going to lose any sleep over it as the deck was extremely powerful.

The banning that did catch people by surprise was Splinter Twin. While I think this banning also didn't really need to happen, I can see why it did. First, the deck was very very popular as far as Modern goes. In a format where the most popular deck is usually under 10% of the metagame, Splinter Twin decks often surpassed that if you combined all the different versions. Also, the deck was easily the best performing deck since the banning of Birthing Pod. For those two reasons- variety and dominance- Splinter Twin got banned.

So where does that leave us? I believe the decks that will have a huge upswing in the short term are Eye of Ugin decks. Whether it is Tron or the Eldrazi Black, I feel like these will easily be the most popular to start off with. This could leave Modern in a very dangerous place, as those decks are both weak to the same style of deck. These deck don't put up much of a fight against very fast aggressive decks or combo decks. So decks like Burn, Infect, Affinity, Storm or Griselshoal get ready, as it might be your time to shine.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Eye of Ugin

Enough about that, let's talk about Standard. I have been doing some testing with the new cards, and while there have been some very fun and close to great decks I have come to the conclusion that Rally still seems to be the best deck in the format. Surprise, right? Due to the Eldrazi, Wizards wasn't able to print a card with an effect like Relic of Progenitus, so the graveyard is a pretty safe place to be. There are cards that can stop creatures from getting into the graveyard like Anafenza, the Foremost, but luckily for us she can either be bounced or killed.

Last week I was pretty excited for the card Matter Reshaper, but what I have learned is that this card is amazing but basically impossible for Rally to put into play. Anytime you draw it you either have to draw a Jace, Vryn's Prodigy to discard it or you have to find a Catacomb Sifter to get the colorless mana to play it. While these are things you are trying to do anyway, it is a lot of work just to get one of the cards in your deck to work. This and the fact that it messes up your mana base is why I won't be playing it this weekend.

One card that I didn't mention last week that I will be playing is Ayli, Eternal Pilgrim. This card is another sacrifice outlet, a way to gain life, and it's also great in combat. This card helps your Atarka Red matchup by blocking and killing something and turning your Sidisi's Faithfuls into four life when needed. It also does a great job at pushing damage through due to its deathtouch ability. There have also been plenty of testing games where I get a huge Nantuko Husk due to a Rally but I don't get to attack with it so I then sacrifice the Husk to Ayli and gain a ton of life. While it might not come up often, in some of these games I have even gained enough life to use her second ability and exile some stuff.

While my list is in a constant state of change, if SCG Atlanta were today my list would look like this: