| Quiet Speculation

Insider: Same Plane, Same Happy Landings

Posted on August 31, 2015January 17, 2022 by Brian DeMars

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The first burst of Battle for Zendikar (BFZ) spoilers have gone viral and by far the most exciting aspect of this set so far are the new lands. Specifically, there is a new land cycle that will be Standard-legal as well as some pretty impressive premium land cycles.

Full Art Fetches and Shocks?

The premium cycle is by far the most interesting (and admittedly shocking) aspect of this fall's upcoming release. Basically, premium, foil, full art fetchlands, shocklands, and the new dual lands will be included in booster packs of BFZ. The rarity of these premium cards will be about the same as cracking a foil mythic rare from a booster pack, which translates to about one of these premium lands per case.

Altogether, there are 25 different premium lands that one can possibly get and the fetchlands will be the most expensive because, well, they are fetchlands and they are awesome in every format. I wouldn't be surprised to see the good fetchlands come out of the gate around $150-200 each.

Whatever the starting price that we see on this premium cycle, I like the idea of trying to trade for any of them out of the gate. Obviously, the fetches are going to be the hot ticket right away but there will be plenty of demand for the shocks and the new lands as time goes on. The shocks may well end up being the best bang for your buck depending on how the initial price points work out. People will surely want full art shocks for their Modern decks!

The reason that I say I like aggressively trading for these out the gate is that when a new set comes out tons of product gets opened. Many of these desirable high-end cards end up in the hands of people who don't really want them and are looking to either sell them off or trade them for other cards they need. Out of the gate, the price tends to be suppressed on "will be" high-end foils of Eternal and Modern staples because the supply is actually equal to the demand.

I see these cards as consistent slow gainer type cards over time. People will want these forever--or until they print a better cycle of Modern-legal fetches or duals!

I don't think these cards existing changes very much in the finance world besides the fact that they will be yet another high-end item that exists. If anything, I see the premium lands hindering the growth of other premium copies of these lands, at least in the short term.

It is important to note that the existence of these cards will not affect the prices of regular fetches or shocks in the long or short term. They are too rare a commodity to affect supply and demand.

A New Land Cycle for Standard

The more interesting subject for savvy MTG financiers is that it is confirmed there will be a new rare land cycle printed in BFZ:

There will be one of these lands for each of the allied color combinations: U/W, U/B, B/R, R/B, and G/W.

These lands are already good. They are essentially duals that enter the battlefield tapped that conditionally enter the battlefield untapped if you control two or more basic lands. It is also extremely relevant that these lands also count as having "land types," which makes them legal targets to be searched for with fetchlands or other land search effects.

So, fetchlands and dual lands legal in Standard at the same time! Yikes...

A lot of the chatter I've heard on social media so far is along the lines of:

"DUALZ AND FETCHZ OMG GUYZ BRING ON THE FIVE COLOR MANA BASEZ LOL!!!"

Yes, you could theoretically build a deck where any fetchland can get you any color of mana but the cost is high. Every land is going to come into play tapped! It is also awkward that the Khans of Tarkir trilands don't play nicely with these new duals.

One key thing to remember is that you need to have two basic lands in play in order to make these duals better than a Coastal Tower. Putting two basic lands into play is actually a very real cost to making these lands amazing.

The soonest these lands can ever enter the battlefield untapped is turn three, and only if you have already played basic lands on turn one and two. I'm not sure this sounds like a crazy five color mana base to me...

One thing that I think is for certain is that fetchlands are going to be the best and most important cards in the format because they are mana fixing that also afford players the best chance of getting two basics in play ASAP.

It is interesting that these duals are much better in allied shards (Bant, Jund, etc.) with access to two cycles of fetches than in enemy wedges (Jeskai, Temur) with only one fetchland.

Honestly, it doesn't matter too much because these lands are basically the only mana fixing in Standard so anybody playing more than one color will be playing with these cards. Basically, think of these lands as the scry lands of new Standard: they fix your mana in Standard but probably won't see any play outside of that.

A Boon to Beatdown

I think these new duals are easily at their best in two-color decks where the upside is high to play every land untapped. In particular, G/W Aggro, R/G Aggro, and B/R aggro decks will get a pretty nice boost with regard to how friendly their mana bases are. We'll have to wait until the full spoiler goes live in order to see which of these decks will actually be good post-rotation.

However, knowing that these lands will be at their best in beatdown decks does give us an opportunity to speculate on some of the premier beatdown cards post-rotation. In particular, I'd bet on the one-drops and the Dragons of Tarkir commands in the beatdown colors:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Bloodsoaked Champion

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kolaghan's Command

Champion could go into a heavy black-based R/B beats deck alongside Kolaghan's Command. Both of these cards are already fantastic. I could see both being bigger players post-rotation. The black-red Command is already a huge Modern card so the risk in picking it up now is pretty low.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kytheon, Hero of Akros

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dromoka's Command

I really like Kytheon a lot as a spec target. The card has fantastic stats already and will be the heart and soul of any white weenie or green-white deck. Dromoka's Command is already too low in price at the moment. I've been on these as pickups the past few weeks. I'm stocking up for new Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Monastery Swiftspear

There was an error retrieving a chart for Atarka's Command

Swiftspear is already a Legacy card and quite valuable but I could see the card seeing a lot of Standard play post-rotation. The Red deck still looks very strong post-rotation with lots of nice burn spells and powerful creatures sticking around to light the world on fire.

I don't know about you guys but I'm ready for October to roll around so that I can get my hands on some of these new cards! There are going to be a lot of things to keep up on between then and now, but if you take each piece of new information as it comes along and use it to make good investing decisions it is pretty easy to stay above the curve. If you play your cards right you should have a desirable surplus of hot ticket cards for trade and/or sale when the BFZ prerelease rolls around.

Fair Thee Well: Modern Archetypes, Part 3

Posted on August 28, 2015 by Jordan Boisvert

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Since I opened the Nexus discussion on Modern archetypes a couple weeks ago, community members have congregated in the comments section to share their opinions. The biggest argument against the theories I've proposed comes in the form of varying definitions of "fair" and "unfair." Today, I'll address those concerns more closely.

(This article is the third in a series on Modern archetypes and deck categorization. If you haven't read parts one and two, check them out first!)

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Fair is in the Eye of the Beholder

In my last article, I updated my definition of "unfair." For reference, here's that redraft:

How are Affinity and Infect unfair if they win by attacking opponents with creatures over the course of the game? To address this issue, I’ve added another framework. For me to consider a deck unfair, it must meet one or both of the following criteria:

Has a reliable, nontraditional win condition
Can go from “zero to hero”

The problem with this definition is the vagueness of "reliable." If a deck mostly attacks with creatures to win, but sometimes wins with a planeswalker, categorizing it as fair or unfair becomes a matter of deciding how often the planeswalker wins occur - or, how heavily the deck relies on them occurring.

In Temur Twin, Tarmogoyf and Snapcaster Mage close out many of the games. The deck still differs from Temur Midrange since it has Splinter Twin. Running the combo package gives the deck help against strategies that invalidate the attacking strategy (Soul Sisters, Ensnaring Bridge), but it also buys tempo for the Twin player. Since opponents need to respect the Splinter Twin combo, they leave mana up that normally would have been spent on board presence, making even Deceiver Exarch a lot scarier in the red zone. In a perfect game, Temur Twin doesn't even need to combo off; it wins by Roasting threats, tapping down teams with Cryptic Command, and flipping Huntmaster of the Fells back and forth. Still, we can call Temur Twin's combo win condition reliable because the deck always leans on its existence. Its tempo game would be much worse than that of a Temur Delver deck if it weren't for the constant threat of an instant victory. Last week's system categorizes Temur Twin as an unfair deck, even though it plays lots of games fairly. But as described in part one, Temur Twin and other Aggro-Control-Combo decks usually play either fair or unfair games depending on the matchup, the game state, and their opening hands.

How much does Temur Twin rely on its combo finish? This question sounds a little confusing, because it is. "Reliable" is uncomfortably subjective, so we'll eliminate that qualifier from the definition, leaving us with this:

Can go from “zero to hero"

Nobody disagreed with "zero to hero" indicating a deck's unfairness, but some pointed to decks like Merfolk that could set up a big board during a stall and then topdeck a Lord of Atlantis to swing in for an unblockable 20 points of damage. I still wouldn't call Merfolk a "zero to hero" deck; after a thousand games, the ones in which damage piles up over the course of multiple attacks should greatly outnumber those where it all happens in one turn.

We can also apply the Merfolk example to other quintessentially fair decks. Consider a (very bad) Jund deck with Barrage of Boulders. It gets paired with an Abzan deck, and the two pile up Tarmogoyfs and Tasigurs and Siege Rhinos and Scavenging Oozes without ever attacking each other. If Jund draws Barrage of Boulders and crashes in for 20 damage, it didn't win in an "unfair way." By extension, the Jund deck doesn't become "unfair" when it starts running Barrage of Boulders. Granted, Merfolk achieves the "Barrage effect" pretty consistently with all those Spreading Seas, but the consistency of that kind of effect isn't what makes it unfair. It's still rare that the deck brings unharmed opponents to zero life in one turn.

We're again caught up in the world of "reliable" here; if the deck goes zero to hero sometimes, where's the cutoff? I'm okay with this small hole in the theory. No theory is ever perfect, and I think it's pretty intuitive to look at Merfolk and Ad Nauseam and decide which of the two is unfair.

Out of Control!

Another concern with my definition of unfair was that it included Control decks. According to my definition, a "nontraditional" win condition was one that didn't involve or rely on creature combat. Since Jeskai Control often wins with reach (defined here as "noncombat damage") or planeswalkers, I figured it embodied the unfair spirit.

But I may have been quick to omit reach from "traditional." Tempo decks like Zoo and Delver play Lightning Bolt, and to an extent, "rely" on having that reach in-deck for the late-game. Jund, too, likes its Bolts to become kill spells for opponents once it has dealt with the board. I would never consider these decks unfair, so I'll consider reach traditional going forward.

As for Jeskai Control, it's hard to call such an interactive deck unfair, especially when it plays out so similarly to other Midrange decks. The difference between Control and Midrange is that Control plans to disrupts opponents a prolonged amount of time before getting aggressive. While Midrange decks might wall Aggro decks with Tarmogoyf, Control decks prefer to one-for-one creatures with burn spells or wipe the board with Supreme Verdict. The Midrange deck can start attacking whenever it sees fit, as it already has Tarmogoyf on board. Jeskai might have a Celestial Colonnade on board, but animating the land not only takes longer, it requires a huge mana investment. Turning on Colonnade opens Jeskai Control players up to anything opponents have in store for them next turn. In practical terms, this means that Jeskai needs to wait until opponents are totally out of options, or until it reaches something like 10 mana, before attacking with the Colonnade safely.

Still, the two play out similarly enough to blur the line between them. The difference is one of time: how long does the deck wait before it starts pursuing a victory directly? Since it's impossible to draw a clear line that isn't entirely arbitrary (i.e. "eight turns!"), I've finally given in and consider these decks fair.

Weissman vs. Prison

Up until now, we've only discussed Control decks of the Weissman variety. Michael Flores' "Finding the Tinker Deck," a 2003 article on historical archetypes that's as fun to read as it is tremendously dated, describes these decks as such:

"The Weissman deck (affectionately called The Deck) concentrated solely on defense; while most other players divided their resources between both offense and defense, this philosophy chose to concentrate almost exclusively on one side of the game only... effectively doubling their prowess in that regard."

Jeskai Control, with its range of answers and go-long plan, clearly falls into the Weissman Control archetype. The deck's interactive nature pushes it into fair territory. But some Control decks resist the fair label more than others. Here's Flores on the Prison archetype:

"Originally the Armageddon-packing Icy Manipulator + Icy Manipulator + Winter Orb lock foil of 1996, the Prison has grown into the archetype that epitomizes board control over true control. The Prison hates creature decks and tends to play way after way to answer attack-based threats. At the same time, it tends to be completely unable to defeat well-prepared Weissman-flavored control decks because so very many card slots are devoted to creature sanction. [...] In their focus on board control, from Chris Cade's original design forward, the Prison archetype has often boasted heavy mana control elements as well as creature defense."

I've left out Prison Control because it doesn't see much play in Modern. The closest we have are certain UBx Tezzeret, Agent of Bolas variants, WR Lockdown, and Lantern Control. These decks want to slam an early lock piece, like Chalice of the Void, Blood Moon, or Ensnaring Bridge, with the help of accelerants such as Mox Opal and Simian Spirit Guide. Many turns later, or less if they draw one sooner, these decks resolve a win condition and go to town on their devastated opponents.

Prison has limited Modern exposure for a few reasons. For one, Modern-legal lock pieces don't always do much to tie up a game. Chalice on one crushes certain decks, like Infect and Delver, but fails to make a serious impact against any kind of Midrange strategy. Trinisphere suffers the same problem, but it also lets opponents draw out of the lock given enough turns. Blood Moon might hose Amulet Bloom and greedier opponents, but it's best used as a tempo tool in a format full of wary players fetching their basics. Modern opponents will eventually draw their basics, or their mana dorks, or their bounce spell, so Blood Moon doesn't usually end the game on its own; it requires pilots to back up its effect with pressure to end the game before opponents find an answer. In Legacy, where most spells cost a single mana and players stuff their manabases full of nonbasic lands, these lock pieces are far more effective.

Secondly, accelerants like Chrome Mox and City of Traitors ensure the locks resolve early enough to do their work. Without relevant lock pieces like Tangle Wire and Winter Orb, or the bursts of speed afforded by Ancient Tomb and company, Modern Prison decks lack the tools to see widespread play. But however underrepresented, the archetype still exists, and I'd classify it as a proactive, linear, unfair breed of Control (compared with Weissman, a reactive, interactive, fair breed).

The format's highest-profile Prison deck is Lantern Control. Quickly looking over a sample list reveals both the deck's hardcore Control tendencies and its dissimilarity to any Weissman-style list. It hardly shares any cards with Modern's Snapcaster Mage-powered Control strategies, and though its gameplan is the same, its playstyle couldn't be any more unrelated. Like Weissman decks, Lantern Control wants to lock opponents out of a game and eventually kill them. It secures victories by milling opponents out while denying their relevant draws, and like most linear, unfair decks, folds to certain hate cards.

Even though Modern isn't home to many Prison strategies, I still think it's risky to call Control decks as a whole "fair," since some of them aren't.

Fairing it Out

As always, when we talk theory, it's important to reflect on our motivations. Since Tempo decks beat up on Control, I figured Control must be unfair - after all, my gorgeous diagram from last week explains that Tempo decks beat unfair decks, and Midrange decks take care of fair ones. Such an elegant model! In practice, though, it doesn't really work to attribute an unfair label to Control, or at least not to interactive subsections like Weissman.

I speak for myself and for many Magic personalities I've read over the last few years when I say ego sometimes plays a dangerous part in theory writing. My thanks goes out to this community in particular for helping me refine my outlook on the format. Hopefully, the discoveries we've made together will help others seeking guidance when navigating the vast world of deck archetypes.

Foil Hangarback and Jace Buyout

Posted on August 28, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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This is a weird one. This week, all foil copies of Hangarback Walker and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy were bought out from TCGPlayer. These cards were already on the expensive side, and Origins is still the current draft set. While that won't be true for long, this buyout is still peculiar.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hangarback Walker

Both cards have been showing promise in non-Standard formats, which is likely the motivation for our buyer. At any rate, I would expect to see more foil copies entering the market soon, at which point we'll find out how committed our buyer is to artificially inflating the price of these cards. It's a very curious move to target an in-print, recently-printed even, foil. The motivation is, again, clearly tied to other formats, but that's not where most of the demand for these cards comes from. If I had foils, I'd see if I couldn't sell them. Odds are they'll be coming down soon enough.

Insider: Using MTGO to Predict Paper Price Movements

Posted on August 28, 2015January 17, 2022 by Adam Yurchick

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Modern offers great opportunity for speculation. The vast cardpool offers a cornucopia of options to choose from, and history shows that cards have the potential for extreme price spikes and enormous gains. The sheer size and depth of the format and the market, however, leads to information overload, and selecting specs can feel like throwing darts at a wall.

I like to look towards the Magic Online Modern market to gain insight on what might occur in the paper Modern market. Magic Online players are quick to identify trends and assimilate new information, so if anything is happening in the Modern world, it’s sure to make a blip on the MTGO Modern radar.

I look for cards with prices on the rise, especially cards that have spiked sharply in price over a short time frame. Some price spikes happen online before in paper, and this early warning signal could allow for acquiring paper copies before a spike takes hold. I also like to look for cards that have steadily gained over a longer period of time. If a card has been rising online, but has been holding steady in paper, perhaps a price increase is overdo.

The price movement of a card does not exist in a vacuum. I compare price changes to those of other cards. If I can draw correlations between the movements of various cards, I can identify trends. It’s also important not to make decisions on price information alone. When I take notice of a card, I’ll investigate further into why it may have increased in price, by studying the metagame, tournament results, Magic articles, and even social media.

It’s important to realize that a card rising in online price doesn’t necessarily precede a rise in paper price, and in some cases it could be the opposite, with a lagged MTGO card catching up to a paper spike.

Today, I’ll discuss recent Magic Online Modern price trends that might tip off paper growth for specific cards in the near-future.

Azorius Rising

U/W Control has been on the rise as a competitive Modern archetype. It boasts a strong matchup against grindy midrange decks like Grixis, Abzan, and Jund, an extensive removal suite to combat aggressive decks, and a powerful sideboard with some of the best hate cards in the format.

Some U/W Control staples have seen impressive growth in the past week:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Supreme Verdict

The MTGO price of Supreme Verdict has nearly quadrupled in the past two weeks, but the paper price has remained steady.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stony Silence

The price of Stony Silence spiked two weeks ago, and has continued to slowly grow higher since. The paper price has remained steady all summer long.

Among the U/W Control staples are a few creatures which are seeing extra upward price pressure from the recent success of a new Modern archetype, U/W Blink:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wall of Omens

The price of Wall of Omens has increased ten-fold in the past two weeks, but the paper price has been steady for months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sun Titan

The price of Sun Titan has doubled in the past two weeks, but the paper price has steadily fallen for years; there are many copies in print, but it’s likely due for a bump.

An integral part of the U/W Blink strategy is Emeria, the Sky Ruin.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emeria, the Sky Ruin

The online price has increased more than fourfold in the past two weeks. The paper price had been on slow and steady decline, but in the last month steadied out, and now show signs of growth. If the U/W Blink deck takes off, then so will its price. With Battle for Zendikar bringing landfall back into the equation, there is additional potential upside.

Merfolk in the Major Leagues

Merfolk had been a fringe player for the entirety of its lifespan in the format, but in the last couple of months has proven itself as a real contender and potential tier-one archetype. Its staples have been big winners on MTGO in the past week.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mutavault

Mutavault is a must for Merfolk, and the card has seen around 50% growth in the past two weeks. The paper price saw a 50% increase in price at the beginning of summer, so perhaps MTGO is simply catching up, but the MTGO price under 7 tix still seems like a bargain compared to the paper price of $15 and the all-time MTGO high of over 30 tix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cursecatcher

Cursecatcher has tripled in price in the past two weeks. The paper price spiked by 33% in June, and has slowly grown since. I expect the price of both to slowly grow indefinitely, barring a reprint.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kira, Great Glass-Spinner

Kira, Great Glass-Spinner bottomed out below 1 tix before nearly doubling, but the MMA printing is still half the price of its all-time high over 3 tix. The paper price has slowly gained since it was printed, and at $10 I expect it will gradually move towards the $20 pricetag the BOK version commanded before reprints.

Modern Masters Staples

Some of the nuts-and-bolts Modern staples that hold the format together have seen impressive gains as of late, and I noticed that cards from Modern Masters 2015 and even the original Modern Masters are on the rise:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dismember

Dismember is highly splashable and thus played in a wide variety of archetypes. The online price grew by over in the past week, but the paper price has been stagnant at $1 for months. The paper price of the NPH version was once $1.50, and I expect to see similar 50% paper growth to that price in the coming months.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spell Snare

The price of Spell Snare nearly doubled in the past two weeks, but the paper price has been stable for two months. The card will continue to grow upwards until another reprint.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Remand

MTGO MMA2015 Remand has nearly doubled in price in the past week, but the paper price has been in slow and steady decline all summer. It’s overdue for upward movement.

Takeaways

No card is an island, meaning no card exists by itself in a vacuum. Card price movements have to be taken in context, and my analysis this week reveals that cards often move together in groups.

It’s interesting that cards may share similarities but not necessarily move in price at the same time, so if you can identify a trend among a group of cards, it’s possible to get ahead of the market before a card rises. For example, Darkslick Shores gained 47% on Monday, which is unsurprising given the rise of Razorverge Thicket and Blackcleave Cliffs that began over a week earlier.

-Adam

Insider: Rotate Now, Not in October

Posted on August 28, 2015January 17, 2022 by Chaz V

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Hello readers!

In previous articles here at QS I said I would eventually touch on October rotation, and I've also mentioned a few “Quick Hits” as something to document and watch as we continued into the summer. Well, the summer came and went and here we are very close to September, which will bring the “summer lull” to a grinding halt. We’re in for an extremely wild ride in the coming year.

Instead of purchasing cards when everyone else is, you should be constructing (or have completed by now) your October rotation portfolio. Many of these cards have hit all-time lows and have already begun a slight increase in price. I will also be sharing with all you Insiders my relatively small but efficient group of cards I have stashed for rotation.

I have said over various media that I greatly prioritized Dragons of Tarkir and Fate Reforged cards over Khans of Tarkir. Fate Reforged especially. If we pull up each set's overall value, you can see that Fate Reforged is drastically lower than the other two. It was kind of alarming to see how this set, loaded with Constructed playables, falls behind a set like Khans of Tarkir. It’s understandable that Khans fetches have attributed much to the set maintaining such a lucrative overall value, but it was vastly more opened than the other sets in the block.

I’m not saying there’s no chance some of the Khans cards seeing play currently won’t be good post-rotation. I’m actually convinced most of them will be, I just question that any of them will see more modest gains than any of the fetchlands currently. With the current increasing percentage gains on fetchlands I just fear that once they increase to a certain point, we will see sealed product become such a value play that a mass exodus will go to crack them once again.

In addition, Khans rotates a little earlier, which leads me to believe that there will only be a small window for any of the Khans cards to increase at all. Given the increased supply.

If you’re that confident in Khans of Tarkir and the cards being played currently or post-rotation, there is a lucrative card that most likely has been on fellow financiers' radar for quite some time. Trust me when I say that it really took a lot for me to look at this specific card in particular and I only based the purchase off the fact that it does see some fringe Modern play. I will be highlighting this later in the article.

Without further adieu:

The October Portfolio

12x Narset Transcendent @ $6.79 ($81.48)
12x Sorin, Solemn Visitor @ $6.56 ($78.72)
20x Soulfire Grand Master @ $7.00 ($140)
16x Whisperwood Elemental @ $4.50 ($72)
16x Warden of the First Tree @ $2.00 ($32)

Late round fliers (sorry, Fantasy Football is on my mind!):

20x Ojutai's Command @ $.85c ($17)
30x Silumgar's Command @ $.24c ($7.2)
30x Citadel Siege @ $.25c ($7.50)
32x Frontier Siege @ $.30c ($9.60)
40x Outpost Siege @ $.48c ($19.20)

(Blue fetchlands via RL trade and Pucatrade: not purchased with cash - 16x Flooded Strand, 12x Polluted Delta)

Total spending: $484.70

Phew, well there you all have it. Most of these cards are fairly obvious, and they were quite honestly staring us in the face for quite some time. The best thing about Trader Tools is you can click on “Editions” and literally monitor the spread of notable cards above 1$ quickly and efficiently. Which truthfully brought me to many of these purchases (other than the “late round” stuff).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Narset Transcendent

I couldn’t help myself. The SCG Summer Sale had these below buylist and it really enticed me to grab a few playsets. It could end up an idiotic move, but I’m confident in any blue planeswalker that’s halfway decent. This card is far from bad, and I draw a parallel to a similar planeswalker in the previous block, Kiora, the Crashing Wave, which saw a modest increase after hitting its floor.

I think Narset could start climbing back from a paltry $6.50. Remember the price memory is huge on this card, and most of the set has declined since we saw Dragonlord Ojutai soak up a ton of the value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Kiora, the Crashing Wave

I have to say from evaluating the two cards, I actually think Narset is a fair bit better comparatively. It’s in a better color combination for one, and only really needs a few really good spells to warrant its inclusion into decklists. If nothing else, like I said--I got them under buylist, and that makes the losses a little more bearable should it not pan out as I hope. It has been used in a Constructed setting briefly; hopefully that will repeat in October.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulfire Grand Master

I honestly can’t stop talking about Fate Reforged, and more notably Soulfire Grand Master. I think Doug and Kelly might get tired of it at one point when I rave about this set (and card) on the podcast. I've been consistent letting people know I’ve acquired this card when asked on various social media.

I mean, do you see that spread? Fate Reforged in general has been sporting a ton of good stuff at a lucrative spread for a while now. Coupled with a drastically low overall set price, I think I’m happy putting much more of my rotation investment in the two later sets than Khans.

If you have noticed the recent tournaments and MTGO dailies, Soulfire Grand Master has slowly worked itself into the Jeskai list as a four-of a while ago. I’ve monitored this card like a hawk, and until very recently Card Kingdom had a buylist increase which had this at 1% spread. It’s a little more modest now, but the spread is narrowing quickly again.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

3 Goblin Rabblemaster

4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

4 Mantis Rider

4 Soulfire Grand Master

2 Stormbreath Dragon

Spells

2 Roast

2 Dig Through Time

3 Lightning Strike

3 Magma Spray

3 Ojutai's Command

2 Stoke the Flames

3 Valorous Stance

Lands

3 Battlefield Forge

4 Flooded Strand

2 Island

1 Mountain

4 Mystic Monastery

2 Plains

3 Shivan Reef

3 Temple of Epiphany

3 Temple of Triumph

Sideboard

1 Stormbreath Dragon

2 Anger of the Gods

2 Arashin Cleric

3 Disdainful Stroke

2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion

1 Glare of Heresy

2 Negate

2 Tragic Arrogance

We’ve seen the decklist change since Kevin Jones won that Star City Games open when Khans came out, and when you look at a lot of the core cards the decklist remains largely unchanged going forward. If you re-configure the mana base and add a few new spells it seems like a safe and viable option once the metagame initially changes with Battle for Zendikar.

We also have to remember MM2015 wedged itself after Fate Reforged and Dragons of Tarkir, with Magic Origins soon thereafter. There’s just so many things going right for both of these sets. To top it off Dragons of Tarkir rotates after Khans. So I’m going to keep harping on the fact that given similar spreads I would still favor the two later sets as there just was less overall opened and there weren’t fetchlands soaking up all the value and leading the sets to be opened for them specifically.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Given my preference for FRF and DTK, you're probably wondering why I have Sorin, Solemn Visitor in my October Rotation list. Well, the answer is simply I made an exception for this one card. Solely because we’re looking at a fairly dominant planeswalker, since we’ve seen the success of this card in Standard. It also has forced its way into some fringe play in Modern.

These factors alone really should be jumping out at everyone else as well. I know many of you out there, as well as other writers, are generating quite the buzz and attention towards Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker. While I don’t necessarily think the card is without merit, I just can’t bring myself to go with the herd on this one. I just think Sorin is much more lucrative and viable in more categories than Sarkhan.

I understand both of these cards have an attractive spread and quite the large price memory. I just think the future of both these cards has to come into question. Fellow QS writers have done a great job in rotation articles, and Sarkhan replaces a card like Stormbreath Dragon. The question is, “Does that even matter?” I just tend to lean to the card that is going to be paired with highly viable cards going forward.

Notably Hangarback Walker, which seems like an insane amount of value. We’ve already had coverage by Ryan Overturf about Hangarback Walker being included into Abzan, and when you put these two cards together it gets me a tad bit more excited than guessing the future of Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker. The powerful and potent synergy is already right there in front of our eyes. So, I think that’s where I’m going to be investing... (Wait, I already did that.)

Late Round Fliers

I understand many of you may question the “late round fliers” but the more I had them sitting around the more I ultimately didn’t think they were a huge waste given the cost.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Silumgar's Command

The most questionable one might be Silumgar's Command but, with Hero's Downfall rotating I figured this could be a viable card to deal with planeswalkers in blue-black. Obviously a printing of a more viable card in either of those colors removing planeswalkers obliterates any potential gains on it; I was willing to take the risk on that one particular card.

In any event, I’m really only out .15c each card which is why I was more inclined to take the chance. Hopefully with a metashift into ramping into Eldrazi, each mode of this becomes better. You could even have the luxury of killing a planeswalker and countering a key spell that would have ramped into potentially more dangerous cards.

Of the other small penny stocks card I felt Citadel Siege was a great one to hold. There has been plenty of hype around Hardened Scales and this could be a part of that strategy. We saw the deck tech highlighted here on the website, and it looked like a “+1/+1 counter” themed event deck. What’s better is most of the decklist sticks around, and it can become quite scary with cards like Hangarback Walker and Managorger Hydra becoming very big, very quickly.

Frontier Siege and Outpost Siege I just felt were a great purchase at these prices. I understand Outpost Siege was inserted into a supplemental product, but for such a powerful effect it feels like this was its floor. I mentioned this purchase on the Starcity Games Summer Sale thread, and other QS Insiders seemed to agree. Which I figured, because you’re smart people and know that these have actually seen the light of day in a Constructed environment.

Final Considerations

I’m excited to say the least for the coming rotation in October. I love this time of year, and I think Battle for Zendikar and Khans of Tarkir blocks will be an exciting time in Standard. I’m happy to divulge the cards I’m personally investing in for the Insiders and hopefully it opens some opportunities to shore up last minute purchasing for the coming months. I try to sit down and monitor spreads very closely, and really take the time to put together an effective amount of cards in my inventory.

I’m happy with the amount of money I spent on these particular cards--I wouldn't have wanted to go above $500. The goal was to keep it relatively small while spreading out the investment enough to minimize losses. You'll also notice I kept a majority of the expenditure in proven cards that are played as multiples in the viable archetypes of Abzan and Jeskai--two of the clan colors I think will flourish the most.

Of course when it came to the “penny stocks” I couldn't resist grabbing potentially powerful cards when they’re basically thrown at me. With a floor of .10c it’s hard not to stash some of these away.

Overall I’m happy to have put this together ahead of time instead of rushing when everyone else plans to buy into these cards. I’m sticking to these and will prosper or go down with the ship. Either way, when you target mythic staples in underopened sets with a low spread, I think you’re always going to end up hitting your mark.

One last card before I go. I know I've been avoiding KTK like the plague--but this card looks too good to pass up. I'll reserve judgment and open the floor to you all:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mantis Rider

I’m eager to hear what you all think. On a scale of 1-10 how would you grade this portfolio? How would you grade your own? What are your rotation portfolio’s looking like? Why did you settle on them?

Looking forward to discussing anything in the comments or via social media as well.

Until next time!

- Chaz

Insider: Origins and Dragons

Posted on August 28, 2015January 17, 2022 by Ryan Overturf

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As I'm sure we're all aware of by now, the new Standard rotation will force us to rethink the way we invest in new sets. An interesting element of this rotation is that Dragons of Tarkir will be in Standard longer than Khans and Fate Reforged, with Magic Origins being considered the other set in Dragons' "block." Battle for Zendikar will rotate Theros out of Standard, but Dragons and Origins will survive three more set releases.

The cards in these sets will be given many opportunities to prove themselves, and now is a great time to move in. I have identified the following cards as great, undervalued positions.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spirit

Anafenza is a card that immediately started showing up in Modern Melira combo decks and has a lot of potential in Standard. Unless she's answered immediately, Anafenza will usually have generated three power for you on turn three, which is a great rate for only committing you to one color.

Anafenza also plays great with Hangarback Walker--a card that will surely be heavily played for as long as it's in Standard. While she won't trigger off the tokens, she will bolster when you cast the Walker itself in addition to having the option to bolster it further if both creatures survive.

Anafenza is less than a buck right now, which is certainly too low. Being in the "Armed and Dangerous" pre-con hurts her for sure, but she has longevity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Avatar of the Resolute

This is a pretty great penny stock. This card has quite a lot of MTGO Daily 4-0s under its belt, and is a powerful element of the green-white Hardened Scales deck that Yuuya Watanabe designed for PT Origins. Once again, this card plays ball with Hangarback Walker, which is a huge boon. This is another card from the "Armed and Dangerous" deck, but I'd still anticipate it hitting $3-4 while it's Standard-legal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Demonic Pact

I've written on this card before, and a reader challenged me in the comments section last time, so allow me to expound. If you remove the text of losing the game from this card, getting to do all of the other three things is an extremely good rate for four mana. If you disagree with this premise, then I'm not really sure what game you're playing. Yes, it is slow, but gaining four life will generally properly compensate for this slowness.

Once we agree that this is powerful though, we have to find a way to remove the "lose the game" text. We currently have Dromoka's Command, Sultai Charm, and Ugin, the Spirit Dragon as premium ways to accomplish this, but more importantly there are a wide range of potential cards that could be printed to make this card great.

The text "sacrifice a permanent," some creative deck-building with Tragic Arrogance, or even a deck simply capable of killing the opponent before it has to choose the fourth option, are all potential options for breaking Pact.

We've also seen decks with Woodland Bellower and Invasive Species to both gain more value and not lose to Pact. While we're losing Species and Reclamation Sage, it's not hard to imagine another maindeckable one- to three-drop coming along that helps us answer our own Pact.

I will say again that Pact will likely drop a dollar or two more in price before it takes off, but more importantly I stand by my position that this card will see relevant Standard play. It also has the makings of a very popular casual card for a long-term hold.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Despoiler of Souls

Standard is very powerful right now, so it's not surprising to see a card with a drawback sitting on the sidelines. That said, if you want a tool for a hyper-aggressive deck with resilience against controlling opponents, this is kind of a slam-dunk.

Notably, Anafenza, the Foremost and Hangarback Walker pose substantial obstacles to this card's success. For this reason, I'm somewhat skeptical of this card, but it's basically bulk and has a lot of potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dragonlord Ojutai

Remember when this was a $30 card? Ojutai is quite possibly at the lowest point that it will ever be during its time in Standard. A couple copies have dropped below $10 on TCGplayer over the last two weeks, but these copies have disappeared quickly. This card is still extremely powerful, and when we see the format shrink with rotation it won't be surprising to see a card of this caliber bring a control deck to the forefront of Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Shaman of Forgotten Ways

Whether we get a Constructed-playable eldrazi or not (we probably will), we still have Whisperwood Elemental and Dragonlord Atarka. It's hard to imagine this and Rattleclaw Mystic not teaming up in a powerful Standard deck post-rotation. At $2, this is a stellar pickup right now. Something has to take Courser and Caryatid's place, and the upside on this card is massive.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Stratus Dancer

This card is one of those obviously powerful cards that is seeing a low amount of play in a very powerful Standard. As cards rotate and Standard gets smaller, expect Stratus Dancer to see more play and increase in value.

Den Protector was clearly the best card in the cycle, but don't discount the Dancer. It's a good rate just as a two-drop and the morph ability gives you a 3/2 flier that's a two-for-one. If you think Mantis Rider will see play post-rotation, expect it to be alongside this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Surrak, the Hunt Caller

This is another pre-con card, but again, the power here is too high for a fifty cent rare. Siege Rhino certainly occupies the same space as Surrak, but not only will Siege Rhino rotate while Surrak is still in Standard, but it's also just possible that we get tools for an aggressive green-red deck or some other flavor of aggression that can't support Rhinos.

There's still a good window to invest in Khans and Fate Reforged positions, but these Dragons and Origins cards are worth highlighting for their longevity. I feel very strongly that Abzan positions and Dragonlord Ojutai will do very well when Theros rotates, though we are also likely in the window of the floor for all the cards discussed in this article.

As we see more of Battle for Zendikar it will become clear which of these specs will hit sooner rather than later, but for now I like them all as medium-term specs.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Analyzing My Game: Day 2 at SCG Charlotte with Grixis Control

Posted on August 27, 2015 by Trevor Holmes

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Going into Day 2 of Grand Prix Charlotte, I was 7-1-1, playing at the top of my game and in a solid position for a high finish. Five rounds later, I was checking the drop box after going 1-4 and wondering where it all went wrong. SCG Charlotte was in many ways a challenge of redemption for me; while I had been working on Grixis Control for a while, had written multiple articles and shared numerous opinions and advice both on my Twitch stream and on this very site, I really had nothing to prove to anyone but myself.

At my best, I’m confident, playing tight, crafting the game to a point in the future of my own divine choosing. I’ve qualified for a Pro Tour, decimated an rPTQ field with probably the best deck I’ve ever constructed, and played the pants off of opponents while doves rained from the heavens. At my worst, I’ve punted away innumerable matches, I’ve doubted my abilities and my successes, and wondered if I should even continue devoting time, money, and energy to this incredible but demanding game. To most people, SCG Charlotte was just a tournament, but to me, it was an opportunity for validation. This is my tournament report.

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Preparation

Leading up to the event, I expected a relatively diverse field with no clear direction. Grand Prix Charlotte and the Modern Festival series results were relatively dated, and I expected many players to just play their favorite deck. My own preparation for the event consisted primarily of streaming and tuning my pet deck, Grixis Control, while keeping an eye out for trends and new tech from MTGO Daily results. While there was some interesting developments (primarily Wild Nacatl in Burn lists) it’s telling that most event results from days before SCG Charlotte looked relatively the same compared to results from Grand Prix Charlotte a few months ago. If I had to pick a Public Enemy #1, it would probably be Grixis Control, as the deck had received a lot of attention from major writers and I had seen it a bunch both online and at some local events. Maybe this should have scared me off the deck, but I knew that Grixis had the chops to compete in a relatively hateful field, and I planned on doing some things that people wouldn’t necessarily be prepared for.