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Insider: Virtually Infinite – Back in the Saddle Again

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It’s been a while, but it’s good to be back! Last August I decided to take a year-long break from Magic. This year I won’t be writing a regular series but will make some occasional contributions. My focus? How you can go infinite on MTGO without putting in a lot of time, allowing you to focus on what you came for: playing Magic.

Regular and powerful cycles exist within the MTGO economy that can provide strong returns without micromanaging your account. My goal will be to leverage these cycles, moving from a model of picking stocks to one of buying index funds. Unfortunately there’s no effective long-term “buy and hold” strategy for MTGO because of reprints, but it is possible to employ a three-to-six-month cycle to grow your portfolio with little risk and a modest time investment.

But before we can get started, we will need to generate a stash of tickets. This article is about how to get bids on a large stack of Magic cards, a technique that can be used to either cash out or build a war chest.

A Bit of Backstory

Last summer, shortly after the client switch over, I took a hiatus from Magic. Life was too busy, and the new client featured a suite of features that made quitting Magic Online easy and seamless.

I sold much of my collection and uninstalled Magic Online.

But, to paraphrase W.C. Fields, “quitting Magic is easy…I’ve done it a hundred times.” This summer I realized I can now fit a few hours of Magic a week into my life, and they improved the client to the point that it’s actually worth my time.

That said, I knew I didn’t want to spend a lot of time managing my account. I got into this with a desire to play Magic for free. I succeeded, but last year my portfolio got pretty unwieldy and I spent more time speculating, tracking, and reading QS than I was playing. I knew I needed to simplify.

Getting Liquid

Before leaving, I sold most cards that were at or near their peak. I kept my playsets of eternal formats, cashed out a lot of my specs, and stashed the rest.

I then didn’t log into my Magic account for eleven months. It was a time to focus on career and family, and there's no greater return on investment than that. The upside was that when I returned I had relatively few tix in my account and a large portfolio of random cards, unperforming specs, and extra playsets. I needed to get liquid.

This is a position many Magic Online players find themselves in if they've been playing for a few years. Unless you are constantly culling your collection things tend to sprawl out. Some cards they are gaming with. Others are failed specs or detritus. Then you've got a bunch of boosters that are not being drafted or are too low to sell.

Bathtub of Magic cards
This is the way some of us treat our online collection...

All these positions are what we might call “inadvertent specs”—they are dead capital waiting to be deployed. They are going sideways when there are plenty of opportunities to go up. Leaving junk in your binder has a lot of opportunity costs.

Putting Velocity to Work

What’s great about MTGO is that you can get strong returns during one release cycle and then reinvest those returns during the next cycle. The cyclical economy allows you to make 20-30% on that portfolio and then multiply those gains three months later for another 20-30%. The ability to gain velocity allows for fast growth. But with these rates of return you want to minimize dead capital.

Dead capital in your account could be unproductive or minimally productive specs. It could be playsets you are not playing with. It could be random cards you left in your extra account and forgot about. And, as I had learned in the past, it can really add up.

In order to get back in the saddle, I needed to turn that detritus into gold. And I didn’t have the time to micromanage the process by seeking out the best buy price on hundreds of different cards. Luckily there was a great tool at my disposal: the collection buyout.

Selling out of an account is the quickest way to liquidate your collection—and you don’t lose much value in the process. In fact, I think that some botters are so keen to buy in quantity to stock their bots that they may even reduce their margins to attain collections.

Of course it’s not the only way to get liquid--Sylvain Lehoux has already written about a few others in his excellent article on cashing out but his focus is on how to get cash from tix. I figured I would describe the “account sellout” option, since it should be another tool in your kit.

Before I hit the marketplace, I opened a trade with my second account and stashed everything I wanted to keep. I was pretty ruthless and tried to remain emotionally disconnected from the cards I was selling. Sure, I once had high hopes for you Young Pyromancer and Rageblood Shaman but it’s time to move on. Anything I wasn’t likely to play with or which I didn’t believe was sure to go up in value I put in my “selling” account.

I also made sure that I wasn’t timing the market wrong. I sold at the beginning of July, when I knew a lot of Modern cards would be at their local peak and before the selloffs and liquidity crunch that would come with the Origins release.

I wanted the best price without putting in a lot of time, so I got bids from a bunch of bot rings. This doesn’t take any extra time and can provide assurance that no one is lowballing you.

Getting Bids

How do you get a bid on your collection? First you’ve got to convert your collection to a .csv. Here some simple steps, courtesy of Marlon MTG:

  • Log on to your account and open the collection tab.
  • Switch to list view by clicking on the square graph button at the top right hand side of the card binder.
  • You are now seeing your collection as a list of items, just right click on any item.
  • Choose "Select All" and then right click again and choose "Export Selected Cards to .Csv"
  • You will be asked for a name and a place to put the .csv file, name it as your account name and choose desktop.

You then take that .csv file, mail it around to the addresses below, and wait for the bids to roll in.

Another important tool to know about is the Cardhoarder "Collection Appraisal Tool" which "is intended to give you an idea of the value of your collection to help you decide whether you'd like to proceed with a firm quote." You simply upload your CSV and within seconds you get an estimate of the value of your collection. These are great tools for tracking how your portfolio is doing.

My Cardhoarder link put the value of my collection at $1,751.36. That's a good starting point but it wasn't a real bid. Would the bids come in higher or lower?

It Pays to Shop Around

Given how efficient the MTGO market seems, you might think that the difference between offers would be small. The first time I sold a collection, I wasn’t sure what to expect. I figured some bots would have better buy prices on certain cards, but in the end it would even out.

I was dead wrong. I found dramatic differences in the prices that bots offered for my collection.

That was true this time as well. Within a few days I had received the following bids:

  • MTGO Clanteam  mtgoclanteam@gmail.com: 2200 tickets (no cash/PayPal)
  • MTGO Academy: collection@mtgoacademy.com $1285 (no quote on tix)
  • DojoTrade Bots  dojotrade@gmail.com: 2250 tickets or $2025 PayPal ($0.90 per ticket, minus paypal fees)
  • CardBot: frankbb@sympatico.ca: 1958 tix or $1865.00 ($0.95 per ticket, minus PayPal fees)
  • MTGO Traders: collection@mtgotraders.com $1955 Paypal. No tix. 2130 credits for MTGO bots. A MTGO Traders offer has some unique characteristics. They don’t pay tickets, but they will give you a 9% bonus if you take payment in the form of store credit. They also offer a 20% credit at their brick and mortar store, CapeFearGames, which is well stocked with singles and sealed product if you want to trade digital for paper. Finally, they offer a check in the mail rather than PayPal, which cuts down on transaction fees.

Note that both CardBot and MTGO Traders, along with Marlon and ABU, apparently use the same pricing software (and have been sometimes referred to as “the cartel” because they controlled so much of the MTGO market) so you might expect an identical buy price offer. However, there are discrepancies in their pricing algorithms--in this case resulting in about a 5% difference.

I also emailed ABU Games (mtgo@abugames.com) and Marlon (alpovutmen@gmail.com) who have made bids on my collection in the past but neither of them responded. Must have been a busy week...

Here’s a summary of my options. I knew I wanted tickets, but I also wanted to highlight that you’d have choices if you were looking for another form of payment.

Buyer Cash price Cash minus fees (3% paypal of flat fee with check) Tix Store credit
Clan Team N/A N/A 2200 N/A
Dojo Trade Bots $2025 PayPal $1964 2250 N/A
MTGO Academy $1285 PayPal? $1246 ? N/A
CardBot $1865.00 PayPal $1809 1958 N/A
MTGO Traders $1955 via check $1925 N/A 2130 tix credit for Traders bots, $2346 store credit at Cape Fear Games

I weighed my choices. MTGO Academy offer was a lowball but the others were pretty close. MTGO Traders was the best choice if I wanted to trade up my MTGO collection into a paper collection. Depending on your residency, trading digital for paper may avoid creating taxable income. That said, you are getting a nice bonus but they won’t always have the best prices on the Legacy staples you are looking for.

For both cash and tix, Dojo had the best price. What’s more, I noticed their conversion rate was not competitive. They were offering 0.90 per ticket, plus paypal fees—MTGO Traders and GoatBots often buy these at 0.94 or 0.95.

I decided I would go with Dojo and take my payment in tickets. After all, I was looking to put them to work—and had a key opportunity ahead: the Origins set release.

Show Me the Money

I’ve sold my collection a handful of times, and there are a couple different ways it works. They will either ask for your MTGO password—change it to something generic before sending it over—or will ask you to manually execute the trade. These guys are pros and the whole process will take about ten minutes. They will usually take your whole collection before offering you any tix in return, so be sure to work with reputable bot chains that have a history of successful transactions and a reputation to uphold.

In the end I went with Dojo since I was looking to maximize my ticket stock. In the next couple weeks I plan to put those tix to work on a portfolio of Origins and Khans block cards. Stay tuned...

I hope this article was helpful, and that you’ll take a look at your accounts and see if there is any dead wood you can put to work for you!

The Proof is in the Pudding: Top 8 with Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy!

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A few weeks ago, we talked about the potential viability of Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy in Modern. To summarize, we were intrigued by Jace’s low opportunity cost and high value ceiling in a format full of graveyard enablers (fetchlands and Thought Scour) and cheap, powerful spells (Lightning Bolt and Serum Visions). The unique capability of Thought Scour to simultaneously cycle while providing three cards in the graveyard for the quartet that is Snapcaster Mage, Gurmag Angler, Jace, Vryn’s Prodigy and Kolaghan’s Command enables a strong synergistic core that is difficult to fight against on a singular axis. The power of Jace in Grixis Control specifically comes from the fact that the best answers to him (Lightning Bolt/Abrupt Decay) are poor against the rest of the deck, and only a temporary answer at that due to the presence of Kolaghan’s Command.

Talent of the Telepath Resize

While most of the discussion, both on my Twitch stream and in the comments of the previous article, were positive, there were still some nay-sayers and skeptics that were not quite convinced by my claims. In an attempt to silence these naysayers and prove Jace, Vryn's Prodigy’s worth to the world, I stepped up to the plate with my buddy Jace, putting my life and reputation on the line as I waged honorable war at a local Modern PPTQ with my ever-present companion, Grixis Control. Success would mean riches, fame, and glory beyond measure. Defeat would entail certain death. This is my tournament report.

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The Deck

Since my preparation for Grand Prix Charlotte a few months ago, I’ve grown close to Grixis Control in ways my family and friends will never understand. I don’t know; she just gets me. My unique position as a streamer, as well as a content writer for this site, puts some pressure on me to remain free, experience everything the sea has to offer, try out new decks and strategies, make and break hearts…but I just can’t cut Grixis Control loose. The deck’s unique ability to turn the corner, its adaptability, options for customization, and inherent VALUE goodness all combine into what has truly become an unhealthy obsession. But the fact remains; I will probably play Grixis until the day I die.

Grixis Control, PPTQ Top 8 List, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

4 Snapcaster Mage
2 Gurmag Angler
2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
2 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Instants

4 Thought Scour
3 Kolaghan's Command
1 Remand
1 Spell Snare
3 Terminate
2 Cryptic Command
1 Terminate
1 Spell Snare
2 Mana Leak
1 Deprive
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Electrolyze

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions

Lands

2 Creeping Tar Pit
3 Scalding Tarn
2 Steam Vents
2 Watery Grave
1 Bloodstained Mire
4 Polluted Delta
3 Island
1 Mountain
1 Swamp
1 Island
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Ghost Quarter

Sideboard

3 Dispel
1 Izzet Staticaster
1 Bitterblossom
1 Damnation
1 Vandalblast
4 Fulminator Mage
1 Anger of the Gods
1 Leyline of the Void
1 Duress
1 Engineered Explosives

Before we get into the matches, here are a few things I’ve learned from playing the deck:

  • Gurmag AnglerGurmag Angler is the biggest boy on the block. Lingering Souls and friends are at an all-time low, which means Gurmag Angler is a problem for every non-Vault Skirge creature looking to attack. Even decks not looking to fight fair have to worry about the (usually) three turn clock that Gurmag Angler represents. Normally, the onus is on control decks to worry about opposing threats, but Grixis Control is blessed with this incredible gift of a 5/5 for B that every deck has to worry about and prepare for. This unique position lets Grixis Control turn the corner like no other; we are often able to force opposing strategies off their gameplan as early as turn three or four, for only one mana.
  • Capability to craft gameflow. To elaborate on our first point, Grixis Control can force opponents into undesirable positions, making them play our game. Dropping a quick clock, otherwise known as “turning the corner”, can bump
    Spell Snareopponent’s out of their lane, forcing them to interact with us when they would much rather be doing other things. Twin opponents have to worry about assembling their combo and protecting it with permission while at the same time trying to solve the problem of a 5/5 beating them for three turns until they die. Scapeshift has to take turns off of ramping and sculpting to keep Gurmag off the table with Remand, slowing them down and leaving valuable mana wasted along the way. Jund decks have to find some way to Terminate our Angler while also deploying threats against our counterspells and beating us in a timely fashion before they die to Kolaghan’s and Cryptic Command value. As the counterspell deck, this provides us with innumerable opportunities and decisions involving if/when/how many resources we should use to “fight the Angler fight”. We could Spell Snare their Terminate to continue clocking them, or we could save the Spell Snare for a future Tarmogoyf and let our Angler die, as we could always draw another one or a Kolaghan's Command later in the game. The flexibility granted to us by the most powerful lategame in the format lets us pick a goal, then position ourselves in line with said goal, forcing our opponents to follow along.
  • Is it even a control deck? Grixis Control exists in this weird spot where it has the best inevitability engine in the format (even against Jeskai Control) in Snapcaster Mage/Kolaghan's Command, yet it can also drop a delve fattie on Kolaghans Commandturn two or three and start beating down. Where Jeskai Control is literally forced into doing nothing proactive until the very lategame, Grixis Control can be the beatdown in almost any matchup, while at the same time going over the top of the slowest control deck in the format. Indeed, matchups like Affinity and Burn depend almost entirely on our ability to drop a quick Angler or Tasigur and stay alive long enough to race our opponent. More often than not, Snapcaster Mage functions as an Ambush Viper in almost every matchup, getting in quick damage to make it easier to kill with Lightning Bolt/Creeping Tar Pit later in the game. A Snapcaster that deals four damage usually speeds up our already fast Gurmag Angler clock by a turn. We are often hoping our opponent spends resources killing our Snapcaster anyway so we can Kolaghan’s for full value (Raise Dead + Raven's Crime)
  • Currently the deck has room for one value land and two flex spots in the maindeck. Ghost Quarter has been excellent against manlands and the Tron and Amulet matchups, but Desolate Lighthouse could easily replace it, should Cryptic Commandthe format become even more grindy. In the maindeck, I’ve experimented with many spicy fun-of’s, including Rise // Fall, Desperate Ravings, Mulldrifter, more Electrolyze, more counterspells, a fifth delve creature, discard effects, Young Pyromancer, and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy. While the core of the deck remains primarily the same (eight cantrips, five-six cheap counterspells, four-five value three drops, four-five delve creatures, seven-eight removal spells, two-three Cryptic Commands) little differences in specific numbers and card choices can make a huge difference in certain matchups. The exact counterspell suite is often in flux depending on what the rest of the metagame is up to, and small decisions like Dispel vs. Mana Leak vs. Remand vs. an extra Cryptic Command can make a big difference in deck performance.

The PPTQ Overview

Round 1: Connor Winters, Grixis Twin

This matchup is relatively simple in approach, yet complex in its execution. I find myself heavily favored against Grixis Twin, though I know many people feel that the matchup is either even or in Twin’s favor. While the Twin player can sometimes steal Game 1 with a quick turn four combo attempt, often they either don’t have it in their first few cards or want to wait a little while to attempt the combo with protection, which gives us time to draw into Terminate and put them in the squeeze with Gurmag Angler. PestermiteAfter board, they can choose to either board out the combo and try and kill us with haymakers like Keranos, God of Storms or Teferi, Mage of Zhalfir, or they can attempt to keep in the combo and power through with access to more counterspells.

Unfortunately for Grixis Twin, I feel like they are disadvantaged whether they keep in the combo or not. Keeping it in means that they have awkward, expensive combo pieces clogging up their hand while we are pressuring their life total with delve creatures and protecting them with Spell Snare and Dispel. Boarding out the combo means that they still have inefficient beaters and weird pieces designed to protect their combo rather than playing a long game, while we have our powerful lategame of Kolaghan's Command and Creeping Tar Pit. Interestingly, keeping in the combo is probably better for them, but the games are over quicker and “feel” worse, whereas if they board out the combo, the games are long and grindy, but barring a huge error on our side they seem hard-pressed to win.

OUT
-2 Mana Leak
-1 Lightning Bolt
-1 Cryptic Command

IN
+2 Dispel
+1 Bitterblossom
+1 Duress

Sideboarding against Twin is complicated, as it can vary depending on what we showed them and whether we put them on taking out the combo. If they’re full control, we want to max out on Dispels and keep the Cryptics in. If they plan on tempo’ing us out or going for the combo, Cryptic can be a little slow, or we might want to cut some Jace (as it lets them drop a threat and they can easily kill it). Jace can be great in the lategame, but can be a liability early on. Bitterblossom is normally lights out, just be careful to protect your life total once it’s in play.

Win: 2-0
Games: 2-0
Matches: 1-0

Round 2: Daniel Leake, Grixis Control

The mirror is an interesting matchup that I find very fun to navigate. Factors such as hand composition, land drops, number of Snapcaster Mages, keeping Thought Scour in, and specific deck choices can all affect the match in significant ways. I’ve played the matchup what feels like a hundred times, and every game seems to play out differently. Decisions such as playing out a quick Snapcaster Mage, spending resources protecting our own delve creature, trimming Cryptic Command or trying to fight the counterspell fight with lots of Dispels are all interesting, complicated lines that are worth exploring.

BitterblossomRecently, Grixis Control has experienced a surge in popularity both in paper events and online, due to many factors, but primarily because it’s just plain awesome and a blast to play (in my unbiased opinion). My sideboard plan of Bitterblossom and Leyline of the Void do great work in multiple matchups, but both are lights-out bombs in the mirror. While I didn’t find the Leyline during this match, dropping a quick Bitterblossom on turn three with Spell Snare/Dispel protection is relatively easy to do, and everything after turn three is just cleanup.

Sideboarding in the mirror is very complex, as it depends entirely on what our opponent saw/what we put them on. Leyline of the Void and Bitterblossom are absolute bombs, but Duress is lackluster as they can just re-buy most spells with Snapcaster. Fulminator Mage can be very strong in the matchup, and I normally trim some Mana Leaks and Jace (as they have multiple ways to kill him) and then bring some Jace back in on the play (if they have trimmed their Lightning Bolts).

Win: 2-0
Games: 4-0
Matches: 2-0

Round 3, Andrew Ngo, Grishoalbrand

Grishoalbrand is a difficult matchup, as their ability to combo at instant speed leaves us unable to tap out: ever. This really slows down our deck built on maximizing mana usage every turn, as we can’t spend unused mana cycling Thought Scours and casting Lightning Bolts out of fear of dying once the shields are down. Through the BreachA quick Gurmag Angler backed up by counterspells is essential for victory, yet a fine line has to be walked to craft the game to that point without losing with counterspells stuck in hand. After boarding, Leyline of the Void can stop the quick Goryo's Vengeance plan of attack, though we still have to worry about Through the Breach. Dispel is a great tool to fight with, though after board we also have to worry about Pact of Negation. Their deck has a lot of moving parts, and while it’s a difficult matchup, some tight play can clinch it for us.

Game 1 saw Andrew killing me in response to a fetch activation, which I might have been able to play around, but I’m not sure if it would have changed anything. Game 2 saw him stumbling a bit when digging to find a fattie, which gave me time to land a Gurmag Angler and make short work of his life total. in Game 3 Leyline of the Void showed up, which again gave me time to set up my defenses and put Andrew on a clock.

Sideboarding against Grishoalbrand is rough. Terminates do nothing, and Kolaghan's Command actively helps them, so those get cut. This is what I would do:

Out
-3 Terminate
-3 Kolaghan's Command

In
+3 Dispel
+1 Duress
+1 Bitterblossom,
+1 Leyline of the Void

Win: 2-1
Games: 6-1
Matches: 3-0

Round 4, Darin Williams, Draw

With four 3-0’s in the field at our 28 person PPTQ, a double draw would guarantee Top 8. The top four all drew (including me and my opponent), putting us at 10 points with five 9’s at 2-1. At the conclusion of Round 4, my tiebreaks had me in 4th (last) among the 3-0-1’s. With a draw in Round 5, this would put me in the awkward position of being last seed in Top 8, as all the X-1’s that played would jump me and my breaks had me worst among the 3-0-2’s. With our records basically locking us for Top 8 even with a loss, I convinced my round 5 opponent to play for position, as we were risking basically nothing and one of us could bump up to the 1st seed with a win.

Round 5, Geoff Mullin, Grixis Control

Geoff is a local grinder and very skilled player. His previous Pro Tour was Khans of Tarkir in Honolulu (I believe) and I knew he would be fighting hard to get back. Game 1 saw me with a delve creature in my opener, and two more with my next two draw steps. Dumping my hand on the table let me power through the awkward draw, and Geoff eventually succumbed to my string of powerful threats. Game 2 involved Leyline of the Void, some understandable grumbling from my opponent, and a quick scoop. With that, I jumped from 8th seed to 1st, and only had to give up lunch to do so!

Win: 2-0
Games: 8-1
Matches: 4-0

Top 8 Quarterfinals, Albert Ake, Naya Zoo

Voice of ResurgenceWhile Grixis Control doesn’t necessarily care whether it is on the play or draw, most other decks in Modern do, which meant being on the play throughout the Top 8 would be very good for me. It was especially useful in my quarters match against Naya Zoo, as getting out ahead of his powerful threats is necessary to save some damage and let us use our life total as a resource later on in the game. Jace, Vryn's Prodigy did work here, letting me power through some horrible flood, flip, flashback a Terminate, and then start locking down a Qasali Pridemage. Not bad for two mana! Eventually my flood caught up to me and I died to a huge Scavenging Ooze.

Game 2 saw me on the draw, cleaning up his curve of Noble Hierarch, Voice of Resurgence, Knight of the Reliquary with an Anger of the Gods, but my opponent untapped and dropped a Choke, which was pretty much game over. It was unfortunate to run up against a pretty hateful opponent (Voice of Resurgence is present in some Naya lists, but not an industry standard) and he seemed pretty prepared for Grixis, but the rest of the Top 8 was all Grixis, Jund, and Tron decks that I felt confident I could have made short work of.

Out
-2 Mana Leak
-1 Deprive
-1 Cryptic Command

In
+1 Anger of the Gods
+1 Damnation
+1 Engineered Explosives
+1 Dispel

Loss: 0-2
Games: 8-3
Matches: 4-1

Conclusion

Jace, Vryn's Prodigy did great work for me on the weekend. Often it comes down and eats a Lightning Bolt, and that’s ok. If the floor of my two mana spell is “make my opponent tap a mana and discard a card; gain 3 life” I’m perfectly ok with that, especially considering the ceiling is “smooth your draws, power out your delve creature, flash back your best spell, shrink an opposing threat, gain some life”. Whether discarding Terminates when I need counterspells, counterspells when I need Bolts, fighting land flood or digging for lands, the loot ability is excellent, especially when paired with Kolaghan's Command. A stacked hand can still throw a Gurmag Angler in the yard to be brought back later, assuming we don’t have anything else we want to discard. The opportunities to get value out of Jace go on and on, and I’m excited to fight side by side with him in the future!

Thanks for reading,

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

Preventative Measures Against Theft

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I've seen multiple stories lately about recovered stolen collections, which is great! I've seen people quit Magic for a lot of reasons, and theft is by far the most heart breaking. Last weekend a store in North Saint Paul was able to identify some elements of a collection being sold to them as belonging to one of their regulars and was able to track down the owner and report the theft by posting images to their Facebook group. The collection was returned, and justice was served.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fiery Justice

Yesterday a post showed up on Reddit about a stolen collection being recovered. The owner had a fake Polukranos featured prominently in his binder, which was something that the local community knew about and was used to identify his collection. Anytime you see theft reported, the first question people ask usually has to do with uniquely identifiable elements, and having a few ways to identify your collection outside of "there are lots of fetchlands" is a good idea.

The first comment on that post involves putting a slip of paper with your name and address in a sleeve behind a card as something that a thief is unlikely to check that will tie your collection to you. I highly recommend taking some measures to make your trade binders and deck boxes uniquely identifiable. This will only become relevant in an unfortunate circumstance, but if it comes up you'll be glad you did.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Insider: Battling for the Metagame

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We have seven weeks until Battle for Zendikar releases and throws the metagame into the chaos of war and new cards. There is still much exploration that will happen before then though and GP San Diego is no exception. This event compounded with PT Origins results have steered the meta down quite an interesting path. The metagame is wide open for any type of deck your heart desires to play. If these interesting new brews aren’t to your liking, the kitchen is still open and ready for more brewing.

If you will be playing any events before rotation, you could still play against the typical Abzan Aggro, Esper Dragons, Abzan Control, Jeskai Aggro, and G/R Devotion, but you could also play against any of these sweet new decks. So let’s take a look at all these new additions hidden within the results.

Mono-Red by Tim Landale (25th place)

Creatures

4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Lightning Berserker
1 Firedrinker Satyr
3 Zurgo Bellstriker
4 Abbot of Keral Keep
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
1 Goblin Heelcutter

Spells

4 Wild Slash
1 Titan's Strength
4 Searing Blood
4 Lightning Strike
4 Exquisite Firecraft
4 Stoke the Flames

Lands

20 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Goblin Heelcutter
1 Goblin Rabblemaster
1 Scab-Clan Berserker
1 Chandra, Pyromaster
2 Outpost Siege
2 Scouring Sands
2 Magma Spray
4 Roast

Mono-Red rears its ugly head yet again. In this latest version, courtesy of Pro Tour brewing, we see the addition of Magic Origins having an enormous impact on the deck setup.

The key to this deck’s success is Abbot of Keral Keep. As I suspected from before the set was released, he is insane. Dualcaster Mage who? This is the real way of the future and I expect it to impact Modern as well as maybe Legacy. If you’re desperate, you can cast them on turn two as a pseudo-Seeker of the Way, but it’s almost always correct to wait a turn or two so you can gain some card advantage. Abbot is like a creature version of Outpost Siege which blows my mind.

This deck burns you out from high life totals so protect yourself as much as possible. Trade with their creatures if they give you the chance. Players came prepared to beat this new archetype because this was the only copy to end up in the Top 32 of the GP.

U/R Artifacts by Eric Brown (15th place)

Creatures

4 Ornithopter
4 Hangarback Walker
4 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Chief of the Foundry
4 Whirler Rogue

Spells

3 Springleaf Drum
4 Stubborn Denial
4 Ghostfire Blade
4 Shrapnel Blast
4 Ensoul Artifact

Lands

4 Temple of Epiphany
1 Swiftwater Cliffs
4 Shivan Reef
1 Mana Confluence
1 Tomb of the Spirit Dragon
4 Darksteel Citadel
5 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

1 Tomb of the Spirit Dragon
3 Disdainful Stroke
2 Smash to Smithereens
3 Roast
3 Seismic Rupture
3 Thopter Spy Network

A couple weeks ago, I spoke about this archetype being viable but I couldn’t discern the puzzle enough to complete the deck. As it turns out, I was reasonably close to this build and with further inspection on the legal parts I would likely have gotten to this point. Mono-Blue Devotion distractions kept me from getting this far but I’m giddy that the pros figured it out.

The key to success with this deck is not road-blocking yourself with four-drops. Slimming down the mana curve allows you to bust the gate down quickly and allow your thopter army to chop your opponent to pieces. Whirler Rogue sneaks the last points of damage in unless you can Shrapnel Blast your way to victory.

Beware of the Bile Blight response team in the meta though because they seek to take down your army all in one shot so stubbornly deny your opponent the change to plague your army with destruction.

G/W Aggro by Loren Eakin (8th place)

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
2 Warden of the First Tree
4 Fleecemane Lion
4 Den Protector
4 Deathmist Raptor
2 Courser of Kruphix
2 Hidden Dragonslayer
3 Boon Satyr
3 Nissa, Vastwood Seer

Spells

3 Dromoka's Command
3 Valorous Stance
2 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

Lands

4 Temple of Plenty
1 Blossoming Sands
4 Windswept Heath
1 Mana Confluence
8 Forest
6 Plains

Sideboard

1 Dromoka's Command
1 Valorous Stance
2 Arashin Cleric
2 Unravel the Aether
4 Hangarback Walker
2 Evolutionary Leap
1 Glare of Heresy
2 Tragic Arrogance

Blame Kibler. That saying may be unrelated in origin but this deck overwhelmed nearly all of his Pro Tour opponents who were vastly unprepared for the green-white onslaught. 9-1 in Standard is impressive to say the least and with a better draft record, Kibler would have scored another PT Top 8.

This beast is ripping the metagame to shreds and it was everywhere at the GP. Many pros jumped on board with this aggressive deck and did well at the event. Unlike many aggressive strategies, there is so much maneuverability with this strategy, especially post-board.

Test against this deck or you’ll find yourself on the losing end. Unravel the Aether is particularly necessary and it will start showing up more in response to Hangarback Walker's dominance in the meta.

B/R Dragons by Dan Ward (6th place)

Creatures

3 Hangarback Walker
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Thunderbreak Regent
4 Stormbreath Dragon
1 Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury

Spells

3 Thoughtseize
2 Magma Spray
3 Draconic Roar
4 Bile Blight
2 Hero's Downfall
2 Kolaghan's Command
2 Outpost Siege
1 Murderous Cut

Lands

4 Temple of Malice
3 Bloodfell Caves
4 Bloodstained Mire
2 Haven of the Spirit Dragon
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
6 Mountain
5 Swamp

Sideboard

1 Hero's Downfall
1 Thoughtseize
1 Chandra, Pyromaster
1 Read the Bones
3 Foul-Tongue Invocation
2 Duress
1 Gilt-Leaf Winnower
1 Self-Inflicted Wound
2 Anger of the Gods
2 Crux of Fate

You get a Hangarback Walker, you get a Hangarback Walker, everyone gets a Hangarback Walker! You know what’s good against Hangarback Walker? Playing your own Hangarback Walker obviously.

This card synergizes with so many strategies in different ways. I love the Chief of the Foundry upgrade in this deck of Kolaghan, the Storm's Fury and I’m surprised that Dan didn’t balance his five-drops to include another copy or two for this purpose. This deck is basically Mardu Dragons without the white mana, so the strategy isn’t brand new but this version is some of the spiciest food in the room. Just don’t accidentally Bile Blight all of your thopter tokens along with theirs.

G/W Constellation by Eugene Hwang (9th place)

Creatures

4 Herald of the Pantheon
4 Nyx-Fleece Ram
4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Eidolon of Blossoms

Spells

4 Silkwrap
4 Banishing Light
4 Kruphix's Insight
2 Frontier Siege
4 Sigil of the Empty Throne
1 Starfield of Nyx

Lands

4 Temple of Plenty
4 Blossoming Sands
4 Windswept Heath
8 Forest
5 Plains

Sideboard

1 Starfield of Nyx
2 Nissa, Worldwaker
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
4 Boon Satyr
2 Plummet
1 Tragic Arrogance
4 Suspension Field

Abzan Constellation by Artur Villella (2nd place)

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Herald of the Pantheon
4 Brain Maggot
4 Courser of Kruphix
1 Pharika, God of Affliction
4 Eidolon of Blossoms
3 Doomwake Giant

Spells

2 Thoughtseize
4 Banishing Light
3 Kruphix's Insight
3 Starfield of Nyx

Lands

2 Temple of Plenty
2 Temple of Silence
4 Temple of Malady
2 Sandsteppe Citadel
4 Windswept Heath
3 Llanowar Wastes
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
2 Plains
4 Forest

Sideboard

1 Doomwake Giant
2 Thoughtseize
3 Pharika's Cure
3 Hero's Downfall
2 Infinite Obliteration
3 Anafenza, the Foremost
1 Garruk, Apex Predator

Yet another assortment of interesting enchantments is smattering the meta with a constellation of stars. Take your pick at which colors you want to include in your version but the short answer is that running enchantments is not only feasible but there are many possibilities! Sadly this deck will likely find its demise upon rotation but for now, Origins is originating so many fantastically entertaining decks!

Personally, I’d eschew the black mana in favor of creating my own angel army from Sigil of the Empty Throne, but both decks get to draw ridiculous amounts of cards so they would both be fun.

U/R Tutelage by Michael Majors (1st place)

Creatures

4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Spells

4 Magmatic Insight
4 Tormenting Voice
2 Roast
4 Anger of the Gods
4 Sphinx's Tutelage
1 Monastery Siege
2 Whelming Wave
2 Send to Sleep
1 Alhammarret's Archive
4 Treasure Cruise
1 Dig Through Time

Lands

4 Temple of Epiphany
4 Swiftwater Cliffs
4 Shivan Reef
4 Radiant Fountain
1 Flooded Strand
1 Bloodstained Mire
5 Mountain
4 Island

Sideboard

1 Whelming Wave
4 Fiery Impulse
1 Seismic Rupture
4 Negate
1 Encase in Ice
1 Disperse
3 Annul

My nemesis returns with a vengeance and I want to go hide in a corner. Turbo Fog, or U/R Tutelage in this case, has been my archenemy since I began playing the best game ever made and I’m in no hurry to start playing against it yet again. Every so often this archetype stops players from doing anything relevant in their games and skates by milling opponents out repeatedly.

Sphinx's Tutelage, which is extremely wrong to do to your opponents in Limited, is being used as the engine for this deck to run on. You can destroy them with all the enchantment hate in the meta, but you may still find yourself with no more cards to draw shortly after that in the game. It’s neat that this is yet another distinct archetype viable in competitive play right now though.

Standard is diverse and the diversity isn’t just a bunch of different versions of Abzan any longer, we have true diversity with distinct archetypes making each tournament a uniquely fun experience. Have you tried any of these decks? What deck are you having the most fun with right now? Let me know in the comments.

I hope you enjoyed this hop around the meta. I’ll see you next week with lots of financial info in anticipation of Battle for Zendikar.

Primers: Modern Burn

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Burn in Modern has had its highs and lows. It has bounced between tier 1 and tier 2 for almost the entirety of the format, finally cementing itself as a tier 1 strategy as of late on the backs of new additions from recent sets. The deck is a combo deck that doesn't have a combo: its “combo” is counting to 20 quickly and efficiently.  Seen as a "noob" deck due to its (usually) low cost of entry and barrier of play, its (mostly) non interactive nature has relegated it to the corner of the room with the likes of Bogles and friends.

Searing Blaze Large

While most of these opinions are half-truths, the deck has a lot of areas where you can squeeze out percentage points that put it further ahead of most strategies in Modern. Coupled with poor deckbuilding and weak card selection, this "easy" deck is often not played to its full potential. Having played Burn since the formats infancy, including several GP money finishes with it, I feel I can offer some deeper insight into an archetype that players often assume is far simpler than it actually is.

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Examining the List

Most players would assume a typical Burn list consists of only the lowest costed burn spells and most efficient, guaranteed damage creatures; it actually isn't that simple. Let's take a look at what I would consider the stock list:

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Goblin Guide
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
4 Monastery Swiftspear
2 Grim Lavamancer

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Boros Charm
4 Searing Blaze
4 Skullcrack
2 Lightning Helix

Sorceries

4 Lava Spike
4 Rift Bolt

Lands

6 Mountain
4 Arid Mesa
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Sacred Foundry
2 Stomping Ground
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

4 Destructive Revelry
3 Kor Firewalker
2 Path to Exile
2 Deflecting Palm
2 Relic of Progenitus
2 Rending Volley

I would be extremely hesitant to change anything in the main deck above. Let’s touch on some questions I've been asked about card choices and alternate options.

The Untouchables

Lightning BoltLava Spike, Rift Bolt and Lightning Bolt are an automatic four-of. Lightning Bolt is the best burn spell printed, and its two friends are the closest we have come to replicating this in Modern. The same goes for Boros Charm and Skullcrack: Boros Charm being a rare two mana for four damage, and Skullcrack having the extremely helpful life gain prevention clause while maintaining a reasonable CMC-to-damage ratio. Searing Blaze is an absurd card when it is relevant. You will have some games where it is merely a two-mana/three-damage spell, but the risk/reward ratio is far too great to drop these down to less than three copies. As for the two flex spots, I usually lean towards Lightning Helix, but other options are available.

The creature suite is also near-unchangeable. Goblin Guide is absurd, and Monastery Swiftspear can do a very good impression. Eidolon of the Great Revel on turn two can sometimes do upwards of six damage in such a low cost-centric format. Grim Lavamancer fails the "always do damage" test, but its value against any creature decks, as well as providing "free" damage if he lives, warrants his inclusion.

Lands are a very important, and an often overlooked, part of Burn. A minimum of eight fetches is recommended: you need to be able to reliably fix your mana, provide fuel for Grim Lavamancer and have access to landfall whenever needed for Searing Blaze. If possible, play four Scalding Tarn. Leading with a Tarn, especially if you don't make a turn one play, can occasionally make your opponent put you on another deck and make incorrect plays.

The Cards That Didn't Make the Cut

I'm constantly asked about Vexing Devil. The second you give the opponent a choice, the card loses its potency. I don't want to be staring at a board full of creatures and draw a Vexing Devil instead of another burn spell; neither do you. Consistency is how we win.

Atarkas CommandI have tested the Atarka's Command version extensively and have come to the conclusion that the upside of the card is not worth the mana issues it can cause. With such a low land count, Burn needs to be able to operate on two lands. Having to always fetch a Stomping Ground + Sacred Foundry immediately, while shocking yourself, opens you up to the same problem the rest of the format has: the amount of damage taken to fix your mana. While you gain percentage against many decks in the format, plus being Skullcrack five through eight, you open yourself up to losing to the other aggressive decks, and the mirror match becomes far worse. I feel the consistency of R/W outweighs the power level of this card.

Shard VolleyShard Volley can easily be run in the flex spot, but I would caution against more than one. You want this to be the last spell you cast, outside of flooding scenarios.

The inclusion of Flames of the Blood Hand was arguable before Skullcrack. Going forward, we have better, cheaper options.

Wild Nacatl is easily splashed, but it fails’s the Burn deck mantra – be outstanding or do guaranteed damage.  While a 3/3 for one is good, it doesn’t always do damage and strains the mana base. Pass.

While the cost to damage ratio on Magma Jet is poor at best, the scry 2 changes a lot of things. The closest card we have to damage combined with card draw, scrying is still merely card selection. While not an awful choice, the card is really only great when you are scrying two unwanted Mountains to the bottom. It's inclusion is a debate that probably has no right or wrong answer. The consistentcy argument can go both ways in selection versus damage.  My personal choice: I would be hard pressed to find cuts for it.

The Sideboard

Some of the biggest mistakes I see with the deck concern extremely poor sideboarding choices. When building a sideboard for a deck with such a consistent game plan, your first concern needs to be maintaining consistency. Sure, Path to Exile is great against Wurmcoil Engine, but when you side in four and see three in your opening hand, it starts to look pretty bad.

Destructive REvelryThe cards in your board need to either continue your game plan (do damage to the opponent), fix a problem that is near impossible to beat (Leyline of Sanctity, Kor Firewalker), or give you the time you need to get enough draw steps to win. With that being said, outside of an extremely large metagame shift (or one where everyone plays Soul Sisters) , I would recommend the sideboard listed above.

Destructive Revelry is the reason for the small green splash. Dealing with all of the problem enchantments, the plentiful Modern artifacts, as well as the damage bonus makes this an all-star in plenty of matchups. It's perfect sideboard material.

Kor Firewalker is me admitting the mirror match sucks. Whoever can keep one alive is usually a lock to win.

Path to Exile is your best removal against creatures that are innately hard to deal with. (Wurmcoil Engine,  Deceiver Exarch, Kor Firewalker, etc.)

Deflecting PalmDeflecting Palm is my favorite “Oops, gotcha!” card. Amazing against Tron (targeting a desperate Wurmcoil attack is wonderful), Affinity, Infect, double-striking Primeval Titan, there are too many uses to list them all!

Relic of Progenitus may seem odd, but it can be a workhorse that will always replace itself. Shrinking Tarmogoyf, preventing early Anglers/Tasigurs, lowering Snapcaster’s value, and interrupting any other random graveyard based decks makes this a quiet all-star.

Rending Volley is a concession to Splinter Twin being a deck. Volley can be easily dropped if/when Twins metagame percentage drops, but it's a lifesaver in a lot of cases.

Other common sideboard cards I've tested include Molten Rain (great against Amulet but dangerous at three CMC), and  Blood Moon (same problem: three CMC is worrisome).  As always, board to your local meta, but I always think in terms of playing at a larger event.

Next Level Playing Tips

General Deck Tips

  • Think in terms of draw steps: You win by maximizing the amount of cards you draw while your opponent can’t kill you. Practice calculating odds in your head. Always play to your outs and calculate the odds of drawing one out versus another based on how many draw steps you'll gain from each play.
  • Eidolon of the Great RevelSequence your spells properly: When possible, cast the most expensive spells first. Play Eidolon of the Great Revel as early as possible. Be careful you don’t Eidolon lock yourself against creature decks you can't attack into.
  • Avoid the 'EoT' Trap: One of the biggest mistakes new Burn players make is believing that all instants need to be cast at the end of your opponent's turn. Instead, consider each specific scenario; I have no hesitation main phasing burn on my turn, if they are tapped out, to avoid countermagic.
  • Mulligan aggressively: I always mulligan five (or more) land hands. I also mulligan four-land hands if I'm not on the play and don't have a turn one creature. I almost always keep one-land hands with at least one-two plays, especially on the draw. You have a roughly 60 percent chance to draw the second land by the second draw step.
  • Identify your role early: Know when you are the beatdown and when you are the control deck. Against the hyper-aggressive creature-based decks (Affinity and Infect) you are almost always the control deck. They will run out of relevant creatures before you run out of burn.
  • Be patient: If you have lethal, wait as long as possible without putting yourself in a position to lose. You don’t want to be the guy who bolted his opponent at 3 life only to see them Lightning Helix in response. Quoting the timeless D3: The Mighty Ducks – “Make him make the first move, Conway!”
  • DispelPlay around Snapcaster: Against any Snapcaster decks, respond to a counterspell with additional burn spells while the counter is still on the stack instead of waiting for the counter to resolve. This avoids having the same counterspell "snapped back" at another of your spells. Dispel only costs one mana, so "four mana" could counter two spells if you walk into it.
  • Dodge lifelink: You can prevent lifegain from any lifelink creature by killing a blocker in response. Grim Lavamancer plus any other creatures can give you multiple turns of blocking a Wurmcoil Engine (it can even kill itself to buy more time).
  • Accept the hate: Don’t get dejected when losing unwinnable games. Some people just hate losing to Burn and have upwards of eight sideboard slots against it. Take solace in the fact that they are sacrificing a large amount of other matchups to make this one better.

Single Card Tips

  • Skullcrack (#1): The second text line is extremely relevant. 'Damage cannot be prevented this turn' allows your Goblin Guide to trade with an Etched Champion or Kor Firewalker blocking it.Skullcrack
  • Skullcrack (#2): If you suspect life gain effects, save your Skullcrack as long as possible. If you don’t have one, telegraph you do. Life gain can be the biggest swing against Burn. People really don’t want to walk Timely Reinforcements or Lightning Helix into Skullcrack. Even the fear of the card is enough to put them off a play long enough to swing a game in your favor.
  • Eidolon of the Great Revel: Cast Eidolon pre-combat if you are attacking with a Goblin Guide and expect removal on it. This forces them to use it before getting a “free” Goblin Guide trigger.
  • Searing Blaze: If you don't have a fetchland in play, hold lands in hand in case you need to trigger a Blaze.
  • Boros Charm: Charm can be more than just four damage: the other modes can be relevant too. In rare cases, double strike can cause more damage or allow you to remove a problematic creature or blocker. The indestructible clause applies to ALL of your permanents. You can make your lands survive a timely Stone Rain effect that would cut you off a colored mana source you need.

Sideboarding Guide

Twin

This matchup is very skill intensive for both players. You need to apply pressure while holding back your burn in case you need to waste two spells on an Exarch. Do not tap out (or even come close to tapping out) if your Twin opponent has open mana.  Deceiver ExarchAlways prepare for Dispel and try to hold up your cheapest spells that can target a creature in case they go for it.

OUT
Skullcrack

IN
Rending Volley
Destructive Revelry

Watch out for Batterskull post-board. Path to Exile can be brought in if you feel they are still on the combo plan. Feel free to bring in more Revelry if you see Spellskites. Never trust that one removal spell, for a creature or an enchantment, will be enough.

Grixis (Delve or Twin)

Grixis is a very good matchup for Burn. Eidolon is a house, their manabase is painful, and early creatures keep them off great mana-fixing options.Tasigur

OUT
Rift Bolt
Searing Blaze (if no Delver)

IN
Relic of Progenitus (if Delve)
Rending Volley (if Twin)
Destructive Revelry (if you expect Dragon's Claw)

You lose this matchup to an early delve threat you can’t answer. Relic keeps them off early creatures as well as downgrading Snapcaster into an Ambush Viper. Cash it in when you need the card or to keep them off certain cards in the yard.

Jund/Abzan

Siege RhinoEarly Tarmogoyf into Siege Rhinos are how you lose this matchup.  Keep up Skullcrack whenever possible, and watch how you play Eidolon of the Great Revel. Eventually you can get locked out of playing anything when they start chaining Rhinos and swinging with manlands.

OUT
Eidolon of the Great Revel (on the draw)
Lava Spike/Rift Bolt (on the play)

IN
Deflecting Palm
Relic of Progenitus

On the draw, Eidolon is often too slow to do any good. Once a 3/4 Goyf hits the board, Eidolon is stonewalled and you are looking at having to waste it plus a burn spell to get Goyf off the board. It's enchantment type is also another card type to make Goyf larger. Relic shrinks Goyf and takes away the value of Lingering Souls.

Burn

Kor FirewalkerWhoever draws better will usually win this awful mirror match. On the bright side, you'll have time to get lunch.

OUT
Eidolon of the Great Revel

IN
Deflecting Palm
Kor Firewalker
Path to Exile

Kor Firewalker is the trump: landing one is usually enough to win and two is near unbeatable. Path to Exile is the answer to Firewalker; don’t be tempted to waste it on anything else.

Affinity

OUTEtched Champion
Eidolon of the Great Revel
Lava Spike

IN
Destructive Revelry
Deflecting Palm

Eidolon is awful against a deck that pukes out its hand, so don’t make the mistake of leaving them in. Searing Blaze and Destructive Revelry will put in a ton of work. Save Skullcracks for Vault Skirges. Palm can stop a huge plating swing, but watch out for the instant speed equip.

Infect

Blighted AgentOUT
Skullcrack
Lava Spike

IN
Path to Exile
Deflecting Palm
Destructive Revelry

You are not the beat down here: cast your removal on your turn, sandbag as many targeted burn spells as you can, and grind them out. They will run out of creatures before you run out of burn spells.

Amulet Bloom

amulet of vigorOUT
Searing Blaze
Grim Lavamancer

IN
Destructive Revelry
Deflecting Palm

Arguably Burn’s hardest match up, this is "two ships passing in the night". You need to race as hard as possible and don’t look back. If you can blow up an Amulet quickly, snap it off. Deflecting Palm can fling a giant Titan attack back at them, just be prepared for Pact of Negation.  Save your Skullcracks and watch out for Thragtusk after boarding.

GR Tron

OUTWurmcoil Engine
Searing Blaze

IN
Destructive Revelry (on the play)
Path to Exile
Deflecting Palm

A great matchup for Burn: you should beat them with all but the slowest hands. The only worries are a turn three Karn Liberated or Wurmcoil Engine. Path answers Engine or Deflecting Palm buys you a turn plus a huge damage swing. Bring in Revelry on the play to occasionally catch an Expedition Map before they can search or to blow up Spellskites.

Conclusion

Once you are running an efficient list, you can gain the most percentage points against the field by playing the deck to near perfection. Sequencing, calculating odds, and knowing exactly how to play around cards gives the Burn pilot tons of room for growth. Learn the format; learn your cards; and pounce on mistakes, misplays, and stumbles. When played to near perfection, Burn is one of the least variance-affected decks in the format – a very attractive prospect to long-term winning percentages.  Plus, who doesn't love a turn one Goblin Guide?

Insider: Magic Online Finance Lessons from the Pro Tour

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PT Price Spirals Come and Go Like the Seasons

Pro Tours have a significant impact on the financial landscape of its accompanying constructed format, which is Standard for three out of four Pro Tours. Pro Tours take place right after the release of a new set, which has inevitably thrown the metagame into disarray. Standard has the smallest card pool of the competitive constructed formats, so relatively it's the most impacted by new cards.

With the new metagame undefined, there is uncertainty in the market. There is also uncertainty in the new cards themselves, which are not yet tournament-tested, and their value in the format uncertain. It is left to the pros to figure out the format and define the metagame going forward, and the market reacts to the demand-shaping effects of the Pro Tour.

With uncertainty comes speculation, and in the weeks and days ahead of the Pro Tour, there is a significant amount of speculation occurring in the marketplace. With so many cards in each new set having potential for Standard success, there is no lack of potential speculation targets. There is certainly much speculation in paper cards taking place, but the card market of Magic Online presents a very interesting case study because of how quickly it moves.

After a set release, the price of new cards tends to slowly trend downward as additional supply enters the market from Limited tournaments and simply cracking product, but before a Pro Tour, there are is an inflection point where the price of cards begin to rise, as speculation heightens in anticipation of the tournament. In the few days before this Pro Tour, as in the days before each past Pro Tour in recent memory, there was a massive increase in the price of many new-set cards, which is clearly driven by speculators. This past Wednesday, the price of Magic Online Magic Origins staples spiked, and prices continued to grow into the start of the Pro Tour on Friday.

Speculation takes place by many different parties. Members of Pro Tour teams have the ability to make informed speculation decisions, and have the ability to tell others. Information also simply gets out, and savvy card vendors, local or international, online or brick and mortar, or even Magic Online bots, are able to make predictions on the metagame and the market based on who buys what in the days before a Pro Tour, and use this information to drive speculation decisions. There are just as many speculators acting purely on the knowledge that the Pro Tour tends to drive prices upwards, and betting on a card or basket of cards has potential for big gains.

As the Pro Tour began to unfold on Friday, information about the competitors’ Standard decks begins to became public. At this point it was not yet clear what decks were the best of the bunch, but some picture of the metagame developed, and the market reacted throughout the day. Cards that received a lot of airtime and feature match success began to rise even higher in price to inflated heights buoyed by the speculators. Cards that were not as successful began to fall in price.

On the Saturday of the Pro Tour, the price of staples began to fall, including relative failures like Demonic Pact and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy, but even the huge successes, including Abbot of Keral Keep and Hangarback Walker. It's clear that many speculators dumped their cards and locked in their profits, rather than hold out for the stormy weather of the Top 8.

On Sunday, with the Top 8 being broadcast and many decklists revealed, the buzz around the Pro Tour was renewed, and there was a card buying frenzy on MTGO that increased the price of all the staples, bringing Hangarback Walker above its Friday peak, and Pro Tour-winning Abbot of Keral Keep from its low of 2.4 tix on Saturday to 4.4 on Sunday.

The price of the losing cards was grim, with cards like Demonic Pact and Jace, Vryn's Prodigy falling to their all-time lows.

After Pro Tour Magic Origins and during the Monday afterward, the frenzy surrounding the top Pro Tour decks began to wane, and with prices peaked, speculators heavily moved out of their positions. The prices of the most expensive cards began to sharply move downwards, losing between 30%-50% of their value. Interestingly, the price of many losing cards immediately began to rise, which made their immediate post-PT crash the best time to buy.

Now with product continuing to enter the market, there is a constant downward price pressure that even the best cards cannot escape. The price of everything is slowly trending downwards, but the best cards are remaining relatively steady after their post-PT crash, meaning players are demanding enough of them to keep up with new supply entering the market. The price of these cards will eventually begin to slowly fall in price until the set stops being drafted.

Don’t Count Out Rotating Cards

The Pro Tour impacts the price of more than just new cards, and it changes the value of everything else in the format too. Pro Tour Magic Origins happened to take place shortly before Standard rotation, which typically suppresses the value of Standard cards. When the metagame changes, however, players will adjust, as there are still tournaments to be played in the current format, and the market reacts accordingly.

Magic Origins had a particularly strong impact on the paper price of Ensoul Artifact, which went from under $1 to over $5 the Monday after the Pro Tour, and it’s still over $4. A more modest gainer, Phyrexian Revoker went from $0.8 last week to $1.15 today, and it’s still trending upwards. These two cards are unique in that they are useful beyond Standard, so their prices will hold fast through rotation.

The risks associated with imminently rotating cards are easier to mitigate in the liquid world of MTGO, so Pro Tour Magic Origins had a significant impact on the price of cards throughout Standard. Courser of Kruphix, which sat at just over 4 tix after the Pro Tour, has grown to over 7 tix; many different archetypes include the card, including Abzan Control, G/W & Abzan Constellation, G/W Aggro, and G/R Devotion.

The price trajectories of other cards is similar, including Anger of the Gods, which in the same period nearly doubled to two tix, and has since grown past 3 tix on the news of Michael Majors' GP San Diego Win with U/R Mill. Perhaps the most startling price increase after the Pro Tour was Whelming Wave, a component of the U/R Mill deck, which grew from 0.07 to 0.55 tix, and has since grown to nearly 1 tix.

Takeaways

The price movements of cards in the new set before a Pro Tour, as observed by looking at the price graphs of new cards in the time around Pro Tour Origins and recent past Pro Tours, are reasonably predictable. There is plenty of room for making profit through speculation during future Pro Tours.

Time is of the essence, and it's necessary to gauge the cheapest price of a card before it spikes before a Pro Tour, and to gauge the correct time to sell before it falls after the Pro Tour, and then to act on the information through trading. For many, Magic Online is the easiest platform for this sort of speculation, because trades can take place instantly and without transaction cost.

For paper card vendors, it's beneficial to acquire targets as early as possible before prices increase and supply dries up, so information is more valuable the earlier it is acquired. For paper vendors there may also be additional risks of being unable to liquidate specs, but there is also more upside, where markets in a local area or on the morning of a large event may allow these cards to command a premium.

What did you learn from Pro Tour Magic Origins?

-Adam

Insider: MTGO Market Report for August 12th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of August 10th, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Aug10

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

RTR continues it's downtrend this week with another 7% drop. The shocklands from this set are getting into oversold territory at around 2 tix, so be sure to fill out your playsets of these cards at current prices. Speculators should also consider adding RTR shocklands to their portfolios.

GTC shocklands should be considered more carefully. After RTR went offline for redemption, most rares and mythic rares of that set have steadily declined in price. This suggests that the best buying window for GTC shocklands will be early November when the redemption cutoff date is reached.

Worldspine Wurm is another buy low candidate from RTR. It recently featured as a four-of in the Grishoalbrand decks that seek to abuse Goryo's Vengeance and Through the Breach to cheat Griselbrand into play, and then use Nourishing Shoal and Worldspine Wurm to gain a bunch of life and draw the rest of the deck. Borborygmos Enraged from GTC is a finisher if need be.

After doing some recent testing of this in the two-man queues, I can attest to the power level and the seamless build of this deck. This deck is at least Tier 1.5 in Modern and its components should all be considered good speculative targets while interest in Modern is in a lull.

Theros Block & M15

A brief spike in buying occurred last week due to the Pro Tour and the addition of Magic Origins to Standard. That interlude is over now with prices on these resuming their downward trend, both in paper and on MTGO.

Standard-playable cards from these sets won't reach their bottom until they rotate in October, but at that point mythic rares from THS or M15 will become good targets due to redemption. Once a bottom is in, cards like Xenagos, the Reveler will be an excellent target for steady gains over the winter as redeemers seek to capitalize on the predictable price disparity between MTGO sets and paper sets. Junk mythic rares priced at 0.4 tix or less from these sets are good long-term bets for the same reason.

Modern-playable cards can have a different trajectory and we can target cards from BNG and JOU as well. Often they bottom at a similar time as Standard-only cards, but if they are a staple like Liliana of the Veil, sometimes the bottom doesn't come and buying in September can be correct.

Outside of Thoughtseize, there are no cards at the power level of the ISD planeswalker, but Modern-playable cards to keep an eye on include Master of Waves, Thassa, God of the Sea, Chandra, Pyromaster, Chord of Calling, Courser of Kruphix, Keranos, God of Storms and Eidolon of the Great Revel.

Tarkir Block & Magic Origins

The newest set released on MTGO saw a bounce up in the second week of release events. It very much appears that the bottom is in for the set as a whole, but that does mean that value can shift between cards. The price of most rares will continue to have a downward bias until the BFZ is released, but mythic rares will be more stable in price.

Paper prices on all three of the Tarkir block sets are going in a different direction than digital. Once the price of DTK and FRF stabilize in paper, this will be the first signal of an impending uptrend for these sets on MTGO. KTK appears to be in the early stages of its uptrend already with a monthly gain in both TCG Low and TCG Mid.

There will be a pause in any uptrend during BFZ release events as the new set takes center stage, but once dealers and players get their fill of the Fall release, higher prices will follow for the Tarkir block sets, in both paper and on MTGO.

Modern

Most Modern prices are bottoming this week and some have even started cycling back up. The price depreciation triggered by ORI release events created a lot of great buying opportunities for speculators and players. While most cards are likely to regain some value in the short term, speculators should always be cautious when selecting their targets and have reasonable expectations for their positions. After a summer that saw many Modern known staples and newcomers breaking their record high it might take a while (more than two or three months) to return to such heights.

Barely on anyone's radar until two months ago, Nourishing Shoal and Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers, for instance, broke out this summer. Whereas the green shoal has recovered to about 4 Tix after dropping under 2 Tix a month ago the temple has plunged back to a bulk price and has shown no signs of rebound so far. Nothing guarantees that Okina, Temple to the Grandfathers will rise to 2 Tix again anytime soon.

Previously mentioned Path to Exile, Aven Mindcensor and Shatterstorm appeared to have found a floor and have started gaining price strength again. These three Modern staples are well positioned for future profit as the price floor they found is fairly low compared to previous price peaks.

Torpor Orb is another Modern staple but with a different price history. After hitting a record 10 Tix a month ago the orb seems to have reach a floor at 4 Tix these days. If at its current price the speculative opportunity is decent, 4 Tix is nonetheless a relatively high price compared to the orb’s average price before this summer. If this NPH artifact stays clear of being reprinted, 10 Tix might be reached again but its short- to mid-term rebound is more likely to be in the 5-6 Tix range.

The big news from this past week for Modern was the confirmation by Maro that the ZEN fetchlands won’t be reprinted in Battle for Zendikar. The news instantly caused the ZEN fetchlands to double in price within 24 hours. Speculations went wild and the ZEN fetchlands disappeared from MTGO bots for almost two days.

Prices have settled down a bit now but considering that we are entering a growth phase for Modern prices and that the ZEN fetchlands are not expected to be reprinted in the next year means that the price of Scalding Tarn and company are likely to keep climbing for the next month or two. The release of the Fall set signals a period of price weakness so speculators or players who have missed their chance on buying the ZEN fetchlands at a good price should save their Tix until October.

Overall, the approaching end of ORI release events should slowly ramp up Modern prices. Speculators should finish up their Modern acquisition with the end of September as a target.

Legacy & Vintage

Although the Total Legacy Price index suggests prices are bottoming, the top Legacy-only staples haven't moved much over the past several weeks. Modern-playable cards, led by the ten fetchlands this week, are mostly responsible for the price variations observed in the Legacy index. Less expensive Legacy cards are seeing some buying activity. As usual, looking at the weekly top winners and losers can help speculators identify trends and speculative opportunities.

Green Sun's Zenith is currently rebounding from a 0.8 Tix bottom hit last week. Green Sun's Zenith has been cycling between about 1 and 2 Tix several times over the past year.

From 8 Tix about a year ago, Karakas has seen its price decline accelerate since the release of MM2. Now below 3.5 Tix the legendary land seems to be poised to head even lower. This card has only been printed in Masters Edition III, a set that hasn’t been massively drafted, and has very low chances of reprint so keep an eye on this one.

Finally, Nimble Mongoose dropped sharply in the past two weeks to an all-time low of around 0.5 Tix. For all three of these cards and other Legacy playables, the Legacy MOCS this November is very likely to push prices higher.

Pauper

The recently proposed MTGO prize and buy-in changes go live today. Play Points will be a part of the tournament landscape from now on and Pauper might be one of the formats negatively affected by these changes. It’s no easy task to anticipate the impact of such changes to the MTGO playerbase and economy, but to date Pauper price variations appear unaffected. In the absence of signs of global price depreciation, speculators should probably hold onto their positions and proceed carefully with further Pauper specs.

With the end of ORI release events, prices across the board, including Pauper, are expected to rise. A quick look at the Pauper metagame will show you that the most played decks remain more or less the same with Familiar and Mono-U Delver representing about a third of a fairly diverse field.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Nissa, Vastwood Seer
Liliana, Heretical Healer
Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh
Kytheon, Hero of Akros
Day's Undoing
Archangel of Tithes
Starfield of Nyx
Demonic Pact
Woodland Bellower
Erebos's Titan
Avaricious Dragon
Shaman of the Great Hunt
Brutal Hordechief
Warden of the First Tree
Whisperwood Elemental
Dragonlord Dromoka
Dragonlord Kolaghan
Dragon Whisperer
Shaman of Forgotten Ways
Sarkhan Unbroken

Modern

Serum Visions

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

None

Stock Watch- Khans Fetches

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With fetches confirmed out of Battle for Zendikar, a knee-jerk spike in the price of enemy fetches was to be expected. A residual effect of this announcement has been an increase in the price of Khans fetches, which were past their floor anyway. In the days since the announcement, Polluted Delta has increased a couple bucks in retail.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

Windswept Heath is super cheap due to its inclusion in the clash pack, with all four of the other allied fetches showing positive short-term price growth. With enemy pain-lands in Origins and an enemy set of lands confirmed for BFZ, these lands are likely to be very important in the coming months for Standard. In particular, the blue fetches will continue to be great for Dig Through Time and Treasure Cruise decks.

If you don't have your Khans fetches you've missed their floor, but they're only going up from here. In particular, Polluted Delta is a card that has both Standard functionality and has seen a dramatic uptick in Modern due to the power of Grixis decks.

Deck of the Week – Allies

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Battle for Zendikar promises to bring a lot of new toys to Modern. RG Tron stands to gain new colorless targets for Ancient Stirrings while Through the Breach decks could get some new monsters to cheat into play. Burn players might benefit from a Goblin Guide reprint (or maybe not with Goblin Piledriver in Standard…). Modern brewers are probably looking forward to other newcomers, including trap cards, Vampires, and (of course) the Rosewater-confirmed return of Allies . Can’t wait until September for the new Allies? Luckily, Modern already has Ally decks for you competitive tribal players.

Kabira-Evangel-MtG-Art

In today’s Deck of the Week, we are going to look at an Allies/Collected Company blend from a recent PPTQ in Italy. As with last week’s spotlight on Soulflayer Aggro, we’ll analyze the deck itself, look at its current and historical context, and suggest some room for improvement. Allies have always been one of my favorite tribes, and I’m excited to see them get even a little face time in Modern. Let’s see what this tribe can do with some more tuning!

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The List and Strategy

Like Goblins, Humans, and other fringe tribal decks, Allies has a limited history in Modern. This mostly takes the form of Daily appearances with the occasional paper finish. Authors sometimes tackle the tribe, as Frank Lepore did in a tech piece back in March 2015. Showing just how diverse Modern is (not to mention how powerful some of its new cards are), Daniel Mulato took an Allies deck to a Top 8 finish at a recent Italian PPTQ. Mulato got fourth at the event in Montecatini Terme on 7/26, playing in a Top 8 against usual suspects like Jund, Merfolk, Grixis Control, and Burn. Here is his semi-finalist list:

Company Allies, by Daniel Mulato (PPTQ Montecatini Terme July 2015, 4th Place)

Creatures

4 Hada Freeblade
3 Oran-Rief Survivalist
4 Akoum Battlesinger
2 Adaptive Automaton
2 Talus Paladin
3 Harabaz Druid
4 Kabira Evangel
4 Kazandu Blademaster

Artifacts

4 Aether Vial

Instants

2 Boros Charm
4 Collected Company
4 Path to Exile

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
1 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
2 Plains
3 Temple Garden
3 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills
4 Cavern of Souls

Sideboard

2 Wear // Tear
2 Return to the Ranks
2 Kor Firewalker
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Ondu Cleric
4 Suppression Field
2 Spellskite

As if Mulato's T4 win wasn't cool enough on its own, he came back a week later and snagged T8 at another PPTQ! His only changes were -1 Harabaz Druid and +1 Adaptive Automaton in the maindeck and -1 Suppression Field and +1 Rending Volley in the board.

Collected Company putting in more Modern work! Company has done wonders for the format, enabling at least three top-tier archetypes (Elves, Abzan Company, and Naya Zoo) and improving the odds of many other developing lists. Mulato’s Allies list is the newest tribal list to get a big boost from the card. The list has elements of both Merfolk and Naya Company, combining the synergy of the fish with the aggression and removal of Zoo. It even leverages Aether Vial, a card I explored in an earlier Deck of the Week on Modern Humans. Here are some of the key strengths and synergies in Mulato’s list, along with why these are relevant in the Modern metagame.

  • Kabira EvangelKabira Evangel is a total monster. Cast at sorcery-speed during your main phase, it effectively makes your entire squad unblockable. This alpha-strike potential is huge against the grindier decks in Modern, such as Jund, Abzan Company, and Grixis Control (just watch out for the Cryptic Command tapdown). Combined with Aether Vial, or a lucky Company flip, Evangel gets even crazier. He singlehandedly invalidates the format’s spot removal, protecting your key allies from Terminate, Lightning Bolt, Abrupt Decay, Path to Exile and any other spells thrown your way. He can also screw with combat math, shutting down an otherwise profitable attack. This is a unique effect no other tribe has access to, which makes Evangel a powerful tool in the Allies arsenal.
  • collected companyAlly triggers scale nicely with Collected Company. Have a Hada Freeblade in play and flip two Allies off of a Company? That’s two counters for the Freeblade and two triggers for your flipped allies as they “see each other” entering off Company. This adds up to a lot of damage in a big hurry. One issue with this strategy is that average flips, or flips on a wiped board, aren’t great. If you have no Allies in play, Company will (on average) get you a pair of 3/3s to hold the line. Compare to Zoo, which can easily flip a Smiter/Goyf combo. Then again, the better flips in Allies are much better than the flips in Naya. For instance, with a 2/3 Freeblade and 2/2 Blademaster on the board, a flipped Evangel and Battlesinger will smash across the board for an unblockable 15 damage (6/5 Freeblade, 6/4 Blademaster, 3/1 Battlesinger). Modern rewards explosive plays and Allies has serious smash potential. This also touches on the redundancy of Allies: they don’t need “Lords” to function the same way other tribes do. This makes them strong in spot removal packed metagames, or even against sweepers. Is an Ally getting bolted with Company or Vial ready? Send in reinforcements and pump your dude in response .
  • hate cards suppression fieldOne of my favorite cards in Modern is Suppression Field. It screws over so many decks at such an early point in the game , and is something most players will never see coming. Unfortunately for Field fans like myself, not many decks can use it well. You need a white deck with minimal activated abilities, which realistically cuts out a slew of builds including Merfolk, Elves, Affinity, Burn, etc. Allies gets to run the full playset in the board. It’s rare we look to sideboards for a unique deck strength, but this is often a mistake. Some decks are uniquely suited to running powerful hate. Allies is a prime example of this, maintaining all of its core tribal synergies while still keeping an active Field. Vial is a casualty of this post-board gameplan, but that’s often the price you pay for the power of a turn two Field. Ondu Cleric is also in this category, powering out crazy amounts of life as early as turns 2-3. This buys you lots of time to handle decks like Burn and Affinity: Company and Vial can even combine with Cleric to dodge lifegain prevention effects like Skullcrack!

When I compare Allies to highter-tier tribal decks like Merfolk and Elves, the strengths that stand out to me are their explosiveness in the turn 3-4 range, their redundancy (everything is a mini-Lord), and their resilience to damage-based removal. With a Vial or Company at the ready, it’s really risky to aim burn spells (or even Anger of the Gods-style sweepers) at an Ally target. A vialed-in Evangel will save the day, and even a quick toughness pump from a newly entered creature can put the target out of range. With the metagame shifting to more battles against grindy decks like Jund and Grixis Control, this is a powerful asset for the tribe. Note this is also combined with the potential for huge Allies swings out of nowhere on turns 3-4. Even a turn five swing can quickly seal the game against even an entrenched opponent. Does this oversell Allies to some extent over Merfolk or Elves? Probably, but that’s part of the fun in working with new decks. You need to start somewhere, and Allies has some compelling foundations.

Allies in Context

Mulato may have been the most recent Allies player to put up a Modern win, but he’s by no means the first. MTGO player MadKat snagged three Daily finishes back in February, running a Hardened Scales-powered list in each of his 3-1 finishes. His sideboard had a lot of resemblances to Adaptive AutomatonMulato’s, with a combination of Ondu Cleric to blunt aggressive decks and Return to the Ranks to restock during removal-heavy games. The deck also sees some occasional play in the Japanese Modern scene, including a few finishes at the end of the December 2014 season and a recent one in early July. This recent list, piloted by Ishikawa Shou on July 4th, was an even more streamlined version of Mulato’s. Ishikawa brought a full playset of Adaptive Automaton to the deck, ditching the Druid accelerators and the four-mana Paladins. Although these are isolated instances of Allies succeeding in Modern (to some extent, you can find an isolated instance of almost any deck succeeding in Modern), they are heartening performances for Allies fans everywhere.

One of the hardest things to do as a brewer is evaluate the individual successes for rogue decks. This is particularly true of rogue tribal decks, which can often feel like worse versions of existing tribal decks (e.g. Merfolk and Elves) or even existing aggro decks (e.g. Affinity, Burn, and Naya Company). Modern Boros Charmhas a fairly high bar for deck viability, and most rogue builds fall solidly underneath that bar. Is there any metagame context that changes this outlook for Allies? As I mentioned earlier, one of these is the prevalence of fairer decks like Grixis Control and Jund, both of which are omnipresent in the metagame. These decks rely on spot removal and damage-based interaction, both of which Allies is uniquely suited to handling in its pump mechanisms, Evangel protection, Company recovery, and maindecked protection like Boros Charm. Another datapoint is the power of sideboard cards like Suppression Field and Ondu Cleric in this metagame. No other deck can run this kind of tribal-focused, bursty lifegain on top of a catchall like Field. Add to this the general power of white sideboard cards (Stony Silence, Rest in Peace, etc.), and Allies starts to look a lot more viable. The key in evaluating these kinds of decks isn’t to look at them in a vacuum. It’s to see what the strategy, or the tribe in this case, offers relative to the overall metagame. Allies is hardly a tier 2 deck, but it does have enough tools to address some important metagame realities.

Improvements and Updates

When I’m working on a new deck, especially a new brew or rogue strategy, I want to do as much as possible to differentiate it from other strategies. It’s okay to borrow some concepts from successful lists. For instance, 3-4 Path to Exiles seems mandatory in almost any white-based aggro deck in Modern (Zoo, Hatebears, Death and Taxes, Bogles, etc.). Also, we don’t want to run fewer than 27-28 creatures if we are maximizing Collected Company. Howerver, just because we are taking these lessons to heart does not mean we should copy Hatebears or Elves. That’s a great way to become a worse version of those decks. So how do we emphasize unique Allies strengths while still tuning the list? Here are some big takeaways I have from our analysis so far:

  • Jack up your Allies
    Allies are some hardy guys, especially against the three-damage mainstays of Modern. It doesn’t take a lot of Ally triggers to put any of your team out of Bolt or Kolaghan's Command range, and we want to maximize this as much as possible. We also want to make our Allies too big to tangle with on the ground. Remember: we need to fight 4/5 Goyfs and Tasigurs, not to mention 5/5 Anglers. We aren’t doing this with a horde of Wild Nacatl wannabes, so we need to make sure our squad is as pumped as possible. This means maximizing creatures that make us big and putting in mechanisms to keep everything growing. Hello, Hardened Scales.
  • Win out of nowhere
    I’m comfortable playing a more traditional slugfest with Allies, but I also want to be able to close Hardened Scalesout a game on turn 4-5. Evangel is half of this puzzle, and Hardened Scales is the other half. As I’ve said in this article and in others, Modern rewards explosive gameplay. Scales is as explosive as you can get. Company flips become totally nuts with a Scales in play, and you can easily swing for at least 12 damage with just two creatures off a turn four Company. Following up from the point above, the enchantment also helps you win the ground war and the removal contest, which plays to another of our strength’s. I’m cutting the Vials for Scales because Kolaghan's Command is everywhere and Abrupt Decay has seen a steep decline with all the delve creatures running around. This preserves our one-drop on the curve and closes off a whole avenue of removal for our opponent.
  • Include more interaction
    Let’s face it: we aren’t racing decks like Affinity or Burn and we don’t want to autolose in game one. Enter Ondu Cleric and Dromoka's Command, two Dromokas Commandcards which shore up our ability to survive the metagame and fit perfectly into our strategy. Cleric doesn’t get buffed off Scales himself, but he gains a lot of life and rapidly puts us out of reach of many aggressive decks. He can also hear the song of the Battlesinger, so it’s not as if he can’t join combat at all. Command serves a similar function, giving us more interaction against cheap creatures and opening up many two-for-ones or even three-for-ones against the format’s premier aggressive decks (Burn/Affinity). The Scales and Command synergy is just gravy. Boros Charm is more aggressive and leads to some truly insane swings with Hardened Allies, but I think that’s too cool for a metagame with so much Twin, Burn, and Affinity. Command still gives us a small damage boost and insulates us from damage-based sweepers, adding in a layer of interaction which gives us legs in a diverse format.

With that in mind, here is my take on the Allies list:

Company Allies, by Sheridan Lardner

Creatures

4 Akoum Battlesinger
2 Taurean Mauler
1 Mirror Entity
2 Ondu Cleric
2 Harabaz Druid
4 Oran-Rief Survivalist
4 Hada Freeblade
4 Kabira Evangel
4 Kazandu Blademaster

Enchantments

4 Hardened Scales

Instants

2 Dromoka's Command
3 Collected Company
3 Path to Exile

Lands

1 Arid Mesa
1 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Sacred Foundry
1 Stomping Ground
2 Plains
4 Temple Garden
3 Windswept Heath
3 Wooded Foothills
4 Cavern of Souls

Sideboard

2 Wear // Tear
2 Return to the Ranks
3 Scavenging Ooze
1 Ancient Grudge
2 Ondu Cleric
4 Suppression Field
1 Spellskite

Changelings are a tribal player’s best friend, especially Mirror Entity combined with our Druid mana generation. It's important to remember that Entity's ability only modifies base Taurean Maulerpower and toughness, so any +1/+1 stack on top of this change, giving an extra boost to their damage output. I'm also a huge fan of Mauler here because an active Scales makes it pass the Bolt test, and then it's just one more spell away from outpacing Tasigur, Angler, and Goyf. I trimmed down the Company count to three and added an extra land to account for the loss of Vial. You could probably swap the Company triplet out entirely and put Vial in their place, removing that 21st land as well, which would synergize better with the lower creature count we have to run to accommodate Paths and Commands. Although I like Vial, the artifact makes us more vulnerable to Kolaghan's Command, and doesn’t lead to the big Company flips with an active Scales. I also appreciate the burstiness of Boros Charm and am sad to lose it, but we still get a mini damage pump in Dromoka's Command and benefit from the interactivity.

What do you all think of tribal Allies? How else have you built the deck and where would you take it from here? Let me know and post some lists: I’ll be sure to get back to you in the comment section!

Insider: Long-Term Investment Alternatives

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This week's article was inspired by a post by one of QS's members (John Galt) found here.

John started with this:

Let's assume that Modern will keep growing relatively more than Legacy and Vintage, mainly for four reasons:

1. Wizards encourages people to play it, as it qualifies you to Pro Tours and it's also played in them.
2. Wizards reprints every card needed in that format. So the player base can keep growing, as the supply can increase as much as it's needed.
3. Stores also prefer that format over Legacy and Vintage. Decks change more often, and therefore more cards are bought and sold. And more new sealed product can be sold if there's a player base for that format (both Modern-specific product, like Modern Masters, and product that's partially demanded by Modern players, like some cards from the newest sets, making booster boxes more valuable).
4. The percentage of MTG players that feels nostalgia for the old cards keeps decreasing. Every new player is, obviously, a person that isn't familiar with old cards. So while he could feel some kind of curiosity, he doesn't feel any nostalgia, and therefore is less willing to play Legacy/Vintage.

These four points seem very reasonable and I can agree with them. However, the next question was what items would one invest in for a ten year commitment.

The problem is that very question disagrees with point number 2. The more desirable a card is the higher the price will be, and over the long run that implies a high probability of reprint. It's important to understand that WoTC is a business first and foremost. Their decisions to reprint valuable cards will go hand in hand with their overall business strategy of making money and remaining sustainable.

The good news is that it's good for WoTC to have valuable "chase" cards. Their mere existence helps justify people's willingness to spend money on cardboard and ink. And they provide a sense of assurance that while WoTC wants Modern staples to be affordable, they aren't going to "Yu-gi-oh" them (i.e. reprint super valuable cards at a much lower rarity and tank the value).

So with that point, I wouldn't consider any Modern-legal card a ten year investment or even a five year investment. I would set a two year limit on any cards avoiding a reprint--not that they won't get reprinted within two years, but I wouldn't expect them to avoid a reprint anytime after that.

That being said, we have a few more options.

Sealed Product

One option would be to purchase sealed product. WoTC has rarely reprinted the exact same sealed product twice (the only exception I can recall is Duel Deck: Anthologies), so any sort of sealed box supply will slowly decrease as boxes get cracked for throwback drafts and whatnot.

Unfortunately, there are additional challenges when it comes to selling sealed product. Shipping costs are not negligible and demand is lower than that of individual staples so liquidity can be a problem. The issue (and John brings it up in a later post) is that the value and demand of sealed product is directly tied to the value of the individual cards in it.

If you want a good example, look at Fallen Empires boxes. They came out in 1994 and had a full print run of only 360 million cards (744,000 sets) and yet boxes are still only worth $95-$140. Whereas Lorwyn boxes printed in 2007 (13 years after Fallen Empires) sell for between $500-$700. The biggest difference is that Lorwyn has a lot more valuable cards in it and (from what I've heard) it was fun to draft.

fesealedbox

vs.

lorwynsealed

Pimpest Version

Another potential avenue is to get the pimpest version of the staples. While a reprint of Dark Confidant drops the price of the regular copies (regardless of set), Russian Ravnica foil Dark Confidants are still $2,000+. On the other hand, Modern Masters 2015 Japanese foil Dark Confidants can be had for under $200 with English ones at under $80. This puts the "pimp" version at a 10x multiplier.

rusfoildc

This sort of stability does give the "pimp" version a leg up on any other version of a card. The problem with these again goes back to liquidity--no Russian foil (Ravnica) Dark Confidant has sold in the past three months on eBay (and likely for even longer). So while the value remains stable, cashing out seems quite difficult. SCG doesn't even have this card on their buylist, so there's not an easy option to unload them currently.

Specialty Product

Another option is investing in specialty product (like the SDCC planeswalker sets). If we look at the original SDCC 2013 planeswalker sets, they are currently going for $600 on eBay and selling for that price with some consistency. They could originally be purchased onsite for around $150, but easily were reselling for closer to $300 when people realized how rare they were. In two years they've doubled in value.

This seems like a relatively safe investment with a lot of potential upside. The biggest challenge is the high initial investment requirement, but with such low risk it seems like a slam-dunk investment (and in this case, the dangers of reprint are exceedingly low).

sdcc 2013

Obviously, there are other forms of specialty products like the Duel Deck Anthologies (which is currently selling for $100-$115 on eBay). While this product didn't have a massive print run either, the demand seems to be considerably lower. The MSRP was $99.99 for this product when it was released, so it's only showing minor growth.

Compare this to the SDCC 2015 planeswalker sets (MSRP of $110.99) which sells for $150+ already. The Anthologies set has a similar high initial investment cost, but a lower likelihood of the big gains of the SDCC set.

ddanthology

Of course, WoTC makes other specialty products that are more massively printed and require a lower initial investment, like Commander products, duel decks, or event decks. When it comes to these products one of the most important factors is the value of the singles inside them. For example, the 2013 Commander deck Eternal Bargain is the most valuable of the decks from this time, currently selling for around $35 on eBay (whereas many of the others are sub $25). Compare this to the original Commander decks which released in 2011; the lowest value one (Devour for Power or Political Puppets) goes for an easy $100.

However, if we look at a different type of specialty product, say the Modern Event deck "March of the Multitudes", we see them selling on eBay for less than MSRP ($55 compared to $75), so purchasing these anywhere near MSRP and sitting on them until now would mean you're still in the red.

marchofmulti

Graded Cards

Last but not least we have graded cards. These tend to be from the earliest Magic sets and are typically only the most valuable cards, because the cost of grading is static (i.e. a flat $5-$15 per card). However, as those older Magic cards age and become rarer their price goes up and the justification for getting them graded also goes up. For a quick example, here are some prices for Beta Shivan Dragons:

betashivan

vs.

betashivangradedWhile I don't know exactly how much the PSA 10 Shivan Dragon went for, it was likely far more than $200. Graded cards are the crème de la crème of card values, often fetching 2-10x multipliers of the original (though this depends heavily on the final grade as well).

The challenge with graded cards is that because they must remain in their case when graded (or else nullify said grading) they are almost exclusively collectors items, not playable cards. This means that the demand for them is now limited to collectors, which is already a small subset of the Magic playerbase. We're even starting to see a lot of stores get cheaper older cards graded...

graded

There is clearly some demand for these graded cards. Since they're specifically collectors items they are immune to any sort of value drops associated with reprinting and thus are a much safer investment to park one's money in. Though again, because these are specifically aimed at collectors and because collectors are a smaller subset of Magic players, liquidity becomes a problem.

From a conservative investment standpoint they are likely a very good way to lock in value though they may be difficult to move when you do eventually want to cash out, so consider that before investing too deeply.

From the Vault: Angels Fully Spoiled

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Well, gang, it looks like we finally have the list for From the Vault: Angels. All told, the list isn't the most exciting From the Vault that we've ever seen...

There are a few cards here that are worth a few bucks, and the price of Avacyn, Angel of Hope is currently out of control. The foil Iona might have been worth a lot if it wasn't in Modern Masters 2015, but here we are. The most exciting card here is Tariel, Reckoner of Souls, as this is the first foil printing of the card, but I can't imagine that there will be a ton of demand for this as the nonfoil can be had for about $5.

This is a far cry from the worst FTV we've ever seen, and I expect that it will actually appreciate in value over time unlike FTV Annihilation. I'd be very excited to get this set at MSRP and would be somewhat cautious about the rates that many retailers will try to get unless you're investing in it for the long haul.

[MTGO] 1 Year, 100 Tix July Report

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July was pretty poor in specs. Most of the job was done in June with the release of Modern Masters 2015 and I had very few spare Tix to invest in other positions.

Nonetheless, the account is still moving up, and with the recent release of Magic Origins, August should be much more interesting. ORI is what I'll be discussing a little bit today.

Before getting into more details, the next unlocked article from the Nine Months of Portfolio Management series is Part 8 – Mismanaging Return to Ravnica Block Positions.

Buying the right card at the right time is not enough, and selling it at the right is equally important. Being too greedy, distracted or not aware of the limitations of your specs can make you lose time and money. Selling early with a moderate gain is often better than selling later with an uncertain larger gain.

More information about the 1 Year, 100 Tix project can be found here:

July Numbers

As you can see, July is better than June. 384.4 Tix is the July valuation of my bankroll, a +7.2% increase compare to the previous month.

My Modern Masters 2015 positions pushed the value of the account over 400 Tix half way through the month, but Magic Origins release events caused all prices to decline right before the end of July.

Summary of the Specs

This month was relatively quiet in terms of specs. I had filled up on MM2 positions in June and was mostly ready to wait and see during July. I sold a few positions profitably, such as Obstinate Baloth, Inquisition of Kozilek (bought earlier this month) and Spell Snare.

I also sold Mindbreak Trap. This card was mostly flat since I bough it in May. The trap didn't really increase after its non-reprint in MM2 and, with no obvious short-term increase in sight, I sold it with a minor -1.45 Tix loss to invest in Simian Spirit Guide, a more dynamic position with better chances of profit in the short term.

The one card that picked up this month and maintained the cap--Monastery Siege. I don't how high Siege can go, but considering I grabbed it at bulk price, the blue siege might as well be the best spec of this project in December.

Magic Origins, With Moderation

Magic Origins is here, and with it one of the best opportunities of the year for speculators. Sadly for speculators, ORI is the last core set.

As we discussed in our special Magic Origins MTGO Market Report with Matt Lewis, core sets usually have a lot of underrated valuable cards (due to its position right before the Standard Rotation), are drafted for only about two months, and prices of singles markedly rebound once the fall set kicks in.

Mythics will probably hit a bottom around mid-August and rares will probably hit theirs in September. After that, anything that looks playable, even remotely, have a chance to yield very nice profit if acquired during the bottom periods and incorporated into a decent deck. Unlike any other regular sets, core set supplies are usually low, which is precisely what helps prices take off very easily after the release of the fall set.

The only little problem for this project is that core set mythics and rares may take their time to significantly rise in price. It may happen in November with the new Standard, but it may also happen later this Winter or even during Spring.

Since this project ends in December, I will have to be more selective in my choices and sell my potential ORI specs as soon as they turn a profit.

My favorite targets in ORI? The five painlands.

Their prices will be extremely low due to their presence in M15, but they will certainly be played independently of what Battle of Zendikar brings in and metagame changes. If you intend to speculate on ORI cards, these are a must. They are the only cards I would bet my house on.

My Favorite ORI Specs

To get there, there's one more thing I need to do in August--sell some of my positions and free some Tix before diving in Magic Origins.

Don't forget you can check out in real time my ORI specs @100T1Y and #100T1Ychallenge.

.

Thank you for reading and following

Sylvain Lehoux

Metagaming For Modern Tournaments

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I'm a big believer in using metagame data to inform tournament decisions. Whether you use the information to guide your deck choice, change around some maindeck cards, or determine your sideboard bullets, players who are aware of metagame trends are much better prepared than those who are not. Unfortunately, it's not always clear how a big pile of numbers should inform these important decisions. Nor is it always clear how we should translate a metagame breakdown, like my 7/1-8/1 update from last week, to actionable deck and card choices. Numbers can be daunting for some and arbitrary for others, and it's hard to know what it really means when we say a "metagame is 8%-9% Jund". Obviously, this translation of data to practice has big implications for your tournaments.

Arena Art

This article gives you some guidelines on how to tackle these issues and metagame for Modern events. I'll discuss how you should "read" metagame numbers and translate those numbers to actionable metagame decisions. I'll also explain how you can put the big-picture metagame numbers in a local context, tailoring these decisions to your area metagame. Whether you are attending a PPTQ later in the summer, heading over to an SCG IQ or Premier IQ, or getting ready for Grand Prix Oklahoma City in September, I'll give you some tips to tune your decks to both the current metagame and any future metagames you dive into.

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Translating Metagame Statistics: Quantitative

Whenever I post metagame articles, or read other ones, I see tons of questions about interpreting the numbers. The most common ones take the form of: "So if Deck A is N% of the overall metagame, does that mean it will be N% of my upcoming tournament?" Other commenters can be a bit more aggressive: "I went to a tournament this weekend and the metagame was nothing like the article predicted!" If you go to your event expecting a 9% / 8% / 8% split between Jund, Affinity, and Burn and then you see 20% of the field is on Twin and there are only two people each on those three decks, you are justifiably going to question any metagame breakdown you read the night before. These are reasonable questions when reading metagame data, and we should expect (even encourage!) critical consumers of Modern information to ask them.

As with most statistical questions, there are quantitative and qualitative ways to unpack this data and make sense of it. You'll need both to succeed. In the spirit of the primarily numbers-based breakdown articles, I want to start with two quantitative approaches to metagame data. Then we'll turn to the qualitative ones.

Dark Confidant MM2015The first quantitative concept is the idea of a margin of error. You've probably heard this term before in reference to surveys and polls (and we'll hear much more of it as the American presidential campaigns kick into higher gear), and it's a great tool for understanding metagame data. Margins of error are useful when you have a sample of results from a population and not the population results themselves. If we knew what every single Magic player brought to every single event, we wouldn't be taking a sample of the data: that would be the population itself. Because we are taking data from reported events and Top 8s/16s, however, we are necessarily dealing with a sample of the overall population. Margin of error gives us an idea about the variation between our observed results in the sample (e.g. Jund being 9% of the observed 7/1-8/1 metagame) and the "true" results in the population (e.g. the actual number of Jund players between 7/1 and 8/1). There are lots of ways to estimate margin of error, based on the size of your sample, the distribution of results, how representative you think the sample is, etc. In all those cases, you are using margin of error to say that the "true" prevalence of a deck isn't just the 9% reported in a breakdown, but the spread around that percentage.

We track metagame margins of error on our Top Decks spreadsheet. You can see these margins of error on the top of each metagame tab; as of this article's writing, the "Paper" tab indicates a margin of error of +/- 3.46%. This means the "true" prevalence of a deck like Jund is not just the observed 10.85% we see in the table. Instead, it suggests the "true" prevalence is somewhere between 7.4% and 14.3%. It could even be lower or higher than that depending on event attendance! A smaller event is necessarily going to have higher variance, so a 16-player tournament could see Jund prevalence as low as 5% or as high as 20%. The trick here is not to fixate too heavily on the individual metagame number. Instead, it's to think of those numbers alongside the margin of error. In fact, while writing this article I've decided to start incorporating this margin of error measure into future metagame breakdowns, so you can expect to see more of it in the future.

TwinOur second quantitative concept is that of relative magnitudes. That's more or less a fancy way of saying "seeing if one deck's share is bigger/smaller than another's". Metagame numbers do not exist in a vacuum. When you read a breakdown, you should not fixate on Jund being 8.9% of a metagame or UR Twin being 5.3%. Instead, you should look at the relative magnitudes of decks in the metagame: UR Twin sees a little more than half as much play as Jund. Or, to take the Affinity (8.4%) and Burn (8.1%) example, we might conclude these two aggro decks are about equally likely to appear at an event. In these cases and all the others we might construct, we aren't focusing on the specific numbers but rather on the relationship between those numbers. This is hugely important in a diverse format like Modern. It's going to be hard to prepare for every possible deck, so you need to make maindeck and sideboard choices to prepare for some decks more than others. The idea of relative magnitudes helps you do that, pointing you to prepare more heavily against one deck (e.g. Burn) over another (e.g. Merfolk).

Relative magnitudes are even more important with tier 2 decks than with those in tier 1. As we define them on the Nexus, tiers are prevalence-based measures more than performance-based ones. Although performance is certainly correlated with prevalence, there are other factors which can drive high deck shares beyond just a deck being "good". This includes budget, playstyle preference, hype/Heritage Druidpopularity, and a host of other factors. Prevalence metrics might be theoretically more useful but, in practice, can be very arbitrary. There isn't enough good data to track this and even the best data sources (MTGO match win percentages) can be complicated by all of the other factors described above. Because we focus on prevalence-based tiering, a deck's tier needs to give it additional weight when comparing it to other decks. You could probably treat a tier 2 deck's prevalence as half of what it actually is when comparing it to a tier 1 deck.

As an example of this, Elves has a 2.2% prevalence right now, which is about 50% of Merfolk's prevalence. Because Elves is tier 2, however, you should probably treat Elves as having only a 1% prevalence for the purpose of comparing it with Merfolk; the deck isn't played half as much as Merfolk at the average event. It's probably played far less than that. There's probably an exact value for the tier 1 and 2 weighting, but a 50% multiplier for tier 2 seems like a good starting point.

Using margin of error and relative magnitudes, you will be much better prepared for leveraging metagame data in a tournament setting. These tools give you a more realistic sense about what metagame statistics mean beyond just a single percentage share. You can also use these tools in any metagame, not just a Modern one. Interested in Standard or Legacy? These analytic methods will be useful in orienting you to those formats as well.

Translating Metagame Statistics: Qualitative

Numbers alone are never going to be enough to understand a metagame. As much as we might love a formula that could predict the metagame for any given tournament, it would probably be impossible to quantify all of the subtle qualitative variables at play in Modern. I hinted at these in the previous section: budget, playstyle, hype/popularity, local variations, and other factors all play a role in influencing the overall metagame data like we see on our site. I want to focus on two of these factors because they often go underappreciated in tournament preparation: budget and local variation.

Metagame breakdowns are often budget agnostic. They assume all players have the same budget and can all play whatever deck they want to, and while that might be truer of a Grand Prix level event, it's Puresteel Paladincertainly not the case at a random PPTQ or SCG IQ. True, metagame numbers account for budget in some capacity (indeed, that's one reason we see so much Burn and Affinity), but they don't account for different effects budgets can have on different events. Going to a Modern FNM in an area known for Standard events? Expect more players trying to get into the format with budget decks. Going to an established Premier IQ in a major metropolitan area? You'll see a lot more decks like Jund and Twin. Generally speaking, the higher the stakes, the less budget becomes a serious consideration. Of course, this assumes players go to high-stakes events with high-stakes expectations. Maybe players take their Puresteel Paladin/Retract combo deck (go go Cheeri0s!) to a GP without any serious intention of winning: they just want to try their chances in a competitive setting. The more you expect budget to be a factor at events, the more you should expect to see the cheaper decks (particularly the cheap tier 1 decks).

Budget considerations relate to another qualitative factor, that of local and regional variation. Everyone knows that one guy who always shows up with his pet Slivers or Allies deck (yep, it's often tribal). Even collected companydecks like Death and Taxes, 8Rack, Storm, and other slightly more established decks will show up in this category. These decks aren't "bad", per se, but they aren't tiered in the same sense as Twin and Jund, or Amulet Bloom and Abzan Company. If you know there's a guy who tries to stick Collected Company into every offbeat creature and tribal variant from week to week, don't think this guy is going to change his M.O. just because a metagame update says Company Werewolves and Soldiers are tier 5 or lower. These qualitative datapoints are critical in readying yourself for local events, especially at the PPTQ and IQ level. This doesn't mean you won't also see the tiered decks show up; even small tournaments have players who are up to speed on the most recent metagame developments and are packing the tier 1 front-runners from the most recent Grand Prix. The key is to (roughly) know what percentage of your local event is on the homebrews and pet decks and what percentage is going to go in the tiered direction.

Using Modern Metagame Data

If you combine these qualitative and quantitative approaches, you will be in a great position to understand the metagame and apply this data to your deck and card decisions. Whenever you read a metagame breakdown, whether on this site or others, you should use those percentages and numbers only as a starting point.

How would you use metagame data to inform your decisions for an upcoming event? What are some other factors you would consider in your own thought process? If there's more interest on this "metagame interpretation" topic, I'll definitely write some more articles on the subject. Until then, keep metagaming and keep on Moderning!

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