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Insider: End of the Summer Lull & Khans Fetches

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Magic finance, like tournament Magic, is a game where proper sequencing and making the most of opportunities is the difference between glory and its opposite. Everything is contextual; a play or a trade can be good or bad as defined by the instant in which it is made.

"Bolt your Elvish Mystic." Awesome on turn one, not so much on turn eight. "I'll trade you four Parallel Lives for a Bonfire of the Damned." Ridiculous deal a few years ago, and the polar opposite today.

The key to Magic finance is choosing the correct opportunity to make a move on the right cards depending what the circumstances are.

The phenomenon called "the summer lull" is and has been an opportunity for savvy Magic financiers to pick up a ton of cards for cheap over the summer months when interest for cards has sort of bottomed out, leaving the values low. However, this time around things have played out a little bit different than usual.

Typically, Standard cards tend to stay low all summer long and don't start to rebound until after the release of the first set of the Fall block when people start needing them for their decks. The release of Magic Origins and the Pro Tour have sort of thrown a monkey wrench into the order of things.

First of all, Origins has turned out to be an absolutely amazing set for MTG financiers. As far as sets go, the prices have been really high--as the demand is large and the supply of packs actually cracked is much lower.

The set is chock full of Standard staples: Hangarback Walker, Nissa, Vastwood Seer, Jace, Vryn's Prodigy and many others lead the way as high-impact, high-demand format staple cards.

The set is good and fun to play with which has kept casual and tournament players locked into attending events all summer long and helped to stave off the summer lull. Having a Pro Tour in the middle of the summer for a good new set also helps to eliminate the lull because it shows players a whole new set of exciting decks, which in turn they want to build and play at FNM.

The most notable way that I can tell the Summer Lull is at an end are the prices on Khans of Tarkir fetchlands. We are only at the beginning of the summer and they have already peaked...

When we look at a comparable card like Thoughtseize (a multiformat staple reprint money card) we realize that it was much lower at this point last year with regard to its trajectory. Thoughtseize started high at $20 and then bottomed out last summer around $7 and then slowly crept back up in value over the course of last year.

Fetchlands started in the high teens, dropped down into the low teens before the summer, and have done nothing but gain value, maxing out in the high twenties already in mid-August!

What does this tell us? Well, it means that people are not in a "Sell, sell, sell!" mode but rather that demand for these popular cards has remained relatively high. It means that whatever evidence of "lull" we've already seen will be rebounding quickly.

My Take of Khans Fetches

I've been saying that Khans fetchlands are too low in value basically ever since the set came out. I know my cards and I can tell you that $15 is not a sustainable price on a Polluted Delta no matter how many got cracked last Fall... The price will rise and rise hard. Thus far with the fetchlands it hasn't been so much a game as a free roll to pick up every single one because prices were clearly too low.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Polluted Delta

We have finally reached a moment where the finance game on these cards becomes interesting. I'm not so enticed to trade for Polluted Delta with a $30 price tag. In fact, for the short term I think the Khans fetchlands are teetering on the edge of being a "sell." My version of a "sell" is very particular--I would trade them specifically for "old cards" on the Reserve List or very popular and liquid Modern cards.

Here is one scenario that I see playing out in the next few months:

Q: New Zendikar comes out and doesn't have enemy fetch lands? What happens?

A: The price of Khans fetchlands stay high and continue to creep up slowly.

Q: New Zendikar comes out and has reprints of the enemy fetchlands. What happens?

A: People will be scurrying around to pick up the new ones and happy to trade away the old ones in order to get Zendikar fetches. Especially in the circumstance where they have extra Khans fetches they're not using and need Zendikar fetches for their decks.

The later scenario is a strange one because it has lots of little spiraling side effects. For instance, I'm sure the first question that my mock scenario brought to mind is: "Wait, but won't the Zendikar fetches come out of the gate cheap?"

My answer to that is, "Well, relatively cheap considering how expensive they were." A regular rare cycle of a land can't come out of the gate at prerelease weekend higher than $20. The economics just don't work like that. So, yes if Misty Rainforest is in the set it'll be $20 week one.

Here is why I think the Khans fetches are likely to be a short-term sell in this scenario. What person wouldn't want to trade a Wooded Foothills for a Misty Rainforest both in the long and short term?

I think that because the price on the new fetches will be relatively fixed, if they are reprinted it very likely drags the price of the Khans fetches down right with them--at least for a minute or two in the short term. I think it would then be extremely likely that both cycles of fetches creep back up as more sets come out.

Other Trends

I noticed that Dig Through Time followed the same type of trajectory as the fetches and didn't dip over the summer. I think this tells us that Dig Through Time will ultimately end up being one of the solid "money cards" from the set. I'm actively trying to pick these up. I can certainly see a world where this card doesn't need to be banned in Modern at some point down the line--if that happens, look out: $50 card.

All of the Dragonlords are basically dirt cheap. I'm a buy on all of them. They are plain and simple too good to be so inexpensive. The long-term Commander market on most of them will ensure that your money stays well invested.

Planeswalkers are a buy. With Hero's Downfall rotating out in the fall there is a very good chance that there is no efficient way to kill planeswalkers. To the newer players reading this that came in with Theros block: You are spoiled!! Planeswalkers used to be annoying to deal with!!!

Both of the Sarkhans, Narset, Sorin, and Ugin are all cards that could have a much stronger place in Standard when the best deck loses its best answer to them.

While the Summer lull may be on its way out there are still plenty of good deals to be had--just not on the top end, grade A, cards. I still like the little wedge creatures (Mantis Rider, Siege Rhino, Savage Knuckleblade, etc.), and many of the $1 mythics (Empty the Pits, Hooded Hydra and Temporal Trespass).

Keep and eye on these cards. They feel too good to be too cheap forever.

Enjoy the sun and the deals while you can--a Battle for Zendikar is on the horizon.

Insider: GP San Diego & the Milling Monster

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It's cool to see a new archetype break out in Magic, and U/R Milling got a great deal of glory time this weekend. I'm of two minds; I like grinding decks, but I can't stand milling decks. I'm inclined to think that WOTC doesn't find being milled out a particularly fair way to die.

This week, we're looking at Majors' phenomenal U/R deck, along with the rest of the field, to get a sense of what Standard looks like now (and how you can profit). Here are the Top 8 decklists.

U/R Tutelage Is a Big Deal

The danger of a combo deck that does not utilize creatures or the attack step is that it blanks a great deal of modern Magic decks. Creatures have gotten so good that they are, shockingly, the basis of Magic again. People pack removal, obviously. A combination deck like Tutelage that does not have creatures to kill means that you've got to blast through a lot of junk before you see that Silumgar's Scorn.

On top of that, many decks may lack solid options to fight it. There were times when Majors would flip half of someone's library in a turn (and that's without janky Day's Undoing). If your plan is a great curve, can you beat four Anger of the Gods in the maindeck? Can you evade Roast and Whelming Wave? Can you beat a deck so confident in its mana curve that it runs four Radiant Fountain for the lifegain? What a monster of a deck.

On top of that, U/R Tutelage is very fresh. Aside from Whelming Wave and Anger, not much else of the deck rotates. It loses its Temples, but we've been promised enemy-colored lands from MaRo in Battle for Zendikar anyway.

Sideboard tech: Talent of the Telepath. Andrew Cuneo ran three on his sideboard. What a lethal card. Against a mirror match, it'll mill out seven cards from the opponent. On top of that, you can pretty much bank on casting two spells--juicy draw spells like Treasure Cruise or Dig Through Time, all for free.

Cuneo did not Top 8, so this tech is largely under the radar right now. As people look for mirror breakers that evade things like Annul, this is a great pickup at $0.50. Get these in trade-ins for now, unless or until we see it pick up in play.

The issue post-rotation will be what replaces Anger of the Gods and Whelming Wave. Wizards is quite reliable about printing red board sweeps. I have to imagine that they've printed an anti-milling card in Battle for Zendikar. They tend to do this when there are cards they fear, printing things like Grafdigger's Cage or Glaring Spotlight (sometimes too late). Tutelage is aggressively costed enough for Constructed that I'm hoping someone decided to plan around it.

Actions: Keep an eye on Talent of the Telepath and the MTGO decks we see come out of this week's Dailies. This deck is real and it'll be a hard fight. Although Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver performed well in the semifinals, I don't like it as a target. It's only got a month left in Standard, after all.

This deck also showcases Jace, Vryn's Prodigy very well. There were those who felt like running four in a deck without other creatures was incorrect; I'd say this proves them wrong.

The Following Presupposes that Tutelage Is Beatable

While Majors made it to the finals, Andrew Cuneo fell out. People will be playing more Unravel the Aether, valuing their Dromoka's Commands more. If Tutelage can resist that and adapt to win (Majors claims his deck was misbuilt), then we're in for a rough month.

A Great Weekend for GWx

Dromoka's Command looks like an amazing card, once again. Corey Burkhart ran a full four maindeck in his hateful Abzan Aggro. I was also surprised to see Warden of the First Tree as a full set, too. Warden has been silently seeing a gentle price increase. Post-rotation, people will need a supplemental creature for their still-absurd Siege Rhinos. Warden is a fine choice.

While Corey went aggro, Paul Rietzl stayed with a controlling list. The only two Languish of the Top 8 sat in his maindeck. He packed monsters like Tasigur and Elspeth to synergize with his board sweeper. This is a deck we've seen for the past year, so it's not exactly new. It's interesting to note just how few Languish we see, even when Thopters looked like the breakout deck from last week.

Constellation had a good final run in Artur Villela's Abzan Constellation deck. The list won't survive rotation, so Doomwake away as many Thopters as you can over the next month. It'll be sad to see it go. Aside from a few spectacular performances, Constellation never became a major format player. It's unfortunate to see a mechanic like that be so close to Standard-playable and just not make it.

Loren Eakins dropped black entirely for his G/W Megamorph deck. Brian Kibler championed the deck last week, going 9-1 with it at the Pro Tour. It ended up being the second-most popular deck at the GP, but only one list managed to make it to the Top 8.

G/W is a notoriously underpowered color combo, this one getting to where it is on the basis of the Den Protector and Deathmist Raptor combination. Note that Eakins has two copies of Evolutionary Leap on the sideboard. Presumably, this is there to refuel in the face of a sweeper and kill off Deathmist Raptors that are about to come back due to a Den Protector flip.

U/R Thopters and Burn Are Nowhere

This would have been a bad week to pack either Thopters or Burn, as the metagame has rapidly shifted to beat these decks. Virulent Plague made some appearances. Ben Weitz's Jeskai deck packed the supremely hateful combination of Arashin Cleric with Ojutai's Command to rebuy it (and gain four more life).

I don't expect that either of these decks are dead, but they're just laying in wait. Unravel the Aether will see a lot more play, since it beats Ensoul Artifact and Sphinx's Tutelage handily. This is just not a good time to be leaning so hard on artifacts and enchantments. Burn, as always, is a deadly deck against the unprepared. We'll assuredly see more of it.

Quick Hits

A few things are still on my mind that don't necessitate whole paragraphs. Let's blast through 'em.

  • Esper Dragons can still mess you up. This may be the list that people grab to fight Tutelage, since it can pack a pile of Counterspells. Ojutai makes for a mean clock as well.
  • Dan Ward's B/G Dragons list looks fun, but it's about eight months too late into Standard to make me excited.
  • Ben Weitz's Jeskai deck is similarly really cool. It's a Soulfire Grand Master deck at its core. That card really favors you in the long game. I saw a few matches with it in play where once you hit about 7 mana the game was just packed up. Chaining back a Valorous Stance is unreal and that's on the lower end of the power curve.
  • Jace had a great showing this weekend.
  • Hangarback Walker was almost absent from Standard. I expected Abzan decks to pick it up, since it may be as close as we get to another Elspeth. Kibler also mentioned using Evolutionary Leap to eat several of them and make 23 Thopters to close out a game in extra turns.
  • Speaking of Kibler's Megamorph deck, it's where I assume a lot of people will shift to after Abzan's little monsters rotate. It makes good use of Nissa to both ramp into Warden's "ultimate" and create a steady stream of Languish-resistant attackers.

That's all! Far from a lame-duck Standard, this one is deep. It's also fleeting. I wish we could see a few more months of these cards playing together.

If something big happens this week, you'll read about it here next week. Until then,

-Doug

Deck Overview – Standard Mill

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I didn't think that I'd be writing that a Mill deck won the Grand Prix this weekend, but here we are. The deck is the exact kind of durdly do-nothing that we've come to expect from Andrew Cuneo, and I'm sure that Michael Majors is happy that his hook-up wasn't able to get him an Abzan deck and that he battled with it this weekend.

Izzet Mill

Creatures

4 Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Spells

4 Magmatic Insight
4 Tormenting Voice
4 Anger of the Gods
4 Treasure Cruise
2 Whelming Wave
2 Roast
2 Send to Sleep
1 Dig Through Time
1 Alhammarret's Archive
4 Sphinx's Tutelage
1 Monastery Siege

Lands

5 Mountain
4 Island
4 Temple of Epiphany
4 Swiftwater Cliffs
4 Shivan Reef
4 Radiant Fountain
1 Flooded Strand
1 Bloodstained Mire

Sideboard

1 Whelming Wave
4 Fiery Impulse
1 Seismic Rupture
4 Negate
1 Encase in Ice
1 Disperse
3 Annul

The goal is to not die and then mill them with Sphinx's Tutelage. If that doesn't work, well... Then you lose, because this deck can't deal even a single point of damage to the opponent. Luckily, Sphinx's Tutelage is a very efficient milling machine, and getting it online and casting Treasure Cruise, especially if you have your Alhammarret's Archive in play, will get you very far along your mill plan in addition to stocking your hand.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sphinx's Tutelage

I built the deck on MTGO as soon as the GP ended and played a match with some concern about opponents being able to destroy the Tutelage, but I pretty easily won a match against Abzan in which two of my Tutelages were destroyed. It just doesn't take long to mill opponents with one copy, and the concern isn't with your win cons getting destroyed, but likely much more with getting run over by aggressive decks. This is why we have a maindeck card as weak as Send to Sleep.

While I thought it might be a cute gimmick at first blush, I know see that this deck is the real deal. It will be interesting to see if the meta is able to adapt in a way that beats this deck and what the evolution will be as we progress towards Battle for Zendikar.

Best of Both Worlds: Your Weekly Undoing Digest

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This week's article contains some Day's Undoing theory and unveils a new brew. But before we begin, let's address the Trained Armodon in the room. I hyped Day’s Undoing as the best card in Magic Origins and predicted it would completely turn Modern on its head. I expected the virtual end of midrange decks (not containing Siege Rhino) and a chaotic ocean of swingy linear mirrors, with Day's Undoing everywhere.

So where is it?

Mishras_Bauble_600 resize

The answer: “around, kind of.” Undoing hasn’t made nearly the splash I thought it would, at least, not yet. I’m still hopeful, my sustained faith in the card buoyed by continued success brewing with it. It’s also picking up steam in a few established Modern decks, especially Affinity and Infect. Day's Undoing is particularly good in these decks since they can easily execute the steps I've outlined below to cast it successfully.

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Here are some finishes containing the card:

Affinity, by Jean-Sébastien Caux (4 Undoings main)
Affinity, by Michael Evans* (4 Undoings main)
Affinity, by Anthony Sherman (4 Undoings main)
Affinity, by Edwin Steenhoek (3 Undoings main)
Affinity, by Nick Vialpando (2 Undoings main)
Affinity, by Joaquin Hita (1 Undoing main)
Infect, by Alex Donald (2 Undoings main)
Infect, by Bryan Henning (1 Undoing side)
Taking Turns, by Stephen Pierce (2 Undoings main)

*This SCG IQ also had a Monkey Grow deck in the Top 8! 

OmniscienceThese results indicate that Day's Undoing is Modern-good. It’s even Legacy-good, putting up results in Omni-Tell and Affinity. I think it’s less a question at this point of if Undoing is playable and more one of when Modern players will figure it out. Despite all these Top 8's, the card has yet to actually win a major Modern tournament. That mythical finish could potentially be what breaks the camel’s back. While I’m now wary of calling a total Modern meltdown, a big-event, 1st-place Undoing victory would likely convince many players of the card’s strength. This could cue a surge in Undoing's representation, which might also begin to push mid-range decks out of the format or, at least, out of their cushiony throne at Modern’s forefront.

How to Undo

Watching some friends sleeve up the original iGrow list and proceed to bomb the same weeklies I was 4-0’ing convinced me to write a mini-primer on casting Day's Undoing. Since I'll be talking about the card in the context of my iGrow deck, I'll post a current list here:

iGrow, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Young Pyromancer

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Day's Undoing
2 Sleight of Hand

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Vapor Snag
4 Disrupting Shoal

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
1 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
1 Sulfur Falls
3 Island
1 Mountain

Sideboard

4 Forked Bolt
3 Snapcaster Mage
2 Destructive Revelry
1 Feed the Clan
1 Snapback
2 Electrickery
1 Hurkyl's Recall
1 Flashfreeze

“Card advantage,” in its purest sense, refers to having more cards in hand than an opponent. But it often means much more. In Modern, card advantage sometimes takes the form of extra creatures generated by Voice of Resurgence or spells given flashback with Snapcaster Mage. Card advantage also manifests itself in more abstract ways depending on the matchup. Nourishing Shoal, for instance, appears to ask casters to suffer card disadvantage by exiling another card as the mana cost. But against a Burn deck, exiling a Worldspine Wurm provides card advantage, since it "counters" two Boros Charms and a Lava Spike; in this case, Grishoalbrand is down two cards, but Burn has lost three, meaning the Shoal netted Grishoalbrand one card.

For the purpose of this article, I've broken down the different kinds of card advantage Day's Undoing cares about into smaller categories. I’ll hereafter refer them as follows:

  • Board advantage - a lead in board presence.
  • Damage advantage - a lead in the damage race.
  • Hand advantage - having more cards in hand than an opponent.

Day's Undoing requires casters to first analyze these three tangible aspects of the game, ensuring leads on one or more axes. We consider these dimensions before casting Day's Undoing:

  • Damage taken. Players should cast Day's Undoing after dealing more damage to opponents than they've already taken. At 12 life, on an empty board, with an opponent at 6, iGrow has a significant damage advantage. Since the deck is packed with instant-damage spells like Vapor Snag and Lightning Bolt, resolving Undoing with a large damage advantage will likely win the iGrow pilot the game immediately. Similarly, with our own life count low, we might be wary of drawing Grixis Control opponents into Bolt-Snap-Bolt.
  • Board presence. Players should cast Day's Undoing while ahead on the board. Young PyromancerResolving Young Pyromancer, protecting him from Lightning Bolt with Disrupting Shoal, casting Vapor Snag on a lone blocker, and resolving Day's Undoing creates massive board advantage - how can opponents possibly overcome all these Elemental tokens when we're untapping with more business? With so many bounce effects in iGrow, it becomes increasingly difficult for opponents to recover after an Undoing resolves as our board develops. The sword cuts both ways: casting Undoing with nothing in play to an opponent’s two creatures spells doom for an iGrow pilot, since opponents will happily untap, attack, and play some more creatures, putting the game even further out of reach. Unless players casting Undoing want to end the game in a way that ignores the board advantage, such as using burn for reach, the sorcery should remain in-hand until a board advantage can be established.
  • Cards in hand. Players should cast Day's Undoing with less cards in hand than their opponents. This way, the symmetrical Twister effect “wastes” an opponent’s cards, since both players put back whatever they have and take a new hand of seven. That’s why Day's Undoing works so well alongside zero- and one-mana spells that lead to empty hands as early as the third turn. Disrupting Shoal does double duty on this metric, costing zero mana and spending another card. Undoing ends up completely erasing its otherwise non-negligible drawback. With no other cards in hand, against a tapped out opponent with six cards in hand, the Undoing player stands to net a whopping six cards over his opponent.

In a nutshell: a perfect-world Day's Undoing resolves after we've accrued board and damage advantage, ideally at the cost of hand advantage, and after opponents have worked to gain hand advantage. Usually, getting just one of these things right is enough to make Undoing worthwhile.

Sometimes, opponents can threaten a win the turn after we resolve Day's Undoing. It frequently becomes crucial to ask: "what are the odds?"

Against an opponent with five lands and a Deceiver Exarch in play, chances are decent that player draws Splinter Twin and goes for it next turn, ignoring a board or damage advantage entirely. Day's Undoing 223x310Opponents also get those used Lightning Bolts stuffed back in the deck and may try to burn us out. Some of these circumstances can’t be prevented, and often, casting Undoing is correct even if opponents may draw a win condition. After all, we may also draw a win condition, or an out to a deadly on-board threat, and Undoing at least gives us a chance to do so. I’ve had players denigrate the card when I cast it as a last resort and lose the turn after, but I’d have lost those games anyway. Undoing has also won me a ton of games I had no business taking by drawing me into that lethal Lightning Bolt after an opponent had, say, stabilized with a board full of 2/2 Zombies. While some situations are clean-cut, deciding to cast Day's Undoing often presents a real risk. Knowing when to take that risk and when to hold out for more Vapor Snags separates good iGrow pilots from bad ones, and can only be learned thorough practice. I believe it's correct to play an extremely powerful, synergistic card in your deck, even if it loses you games sometimes, as long as it wins you games most of the time. Just ask Delver of Secrets.

Mix It All Together

My regular searches for finishes including Day's Undoing landed me on this deck, a Grixis spin on Monkey Grow that runs two of the card in its mainboard. Boogelawolf, who piloted the deck to a 3-1 finish in a MODO daily, was either greatly inspired by my Nexus articles or is my long lost soul mate. Soul mate? Yeah, this guy even ran Faithless Looting! I don’t think the Lootings are necessary here, and hate that the black threats all require Thought Scour to drop reliably. His deck would drastically improve with green over black, since Goyf can replace Angler as a larger (thanks to Mishra's Bauble) beater, leaving the compost to Hooting Mandrills instead of Tasigur (and I’ve gone on record stating that I consider Mandrills stronger in tempo decks than the somehow beefier banana man). Boogelawolf also neglected to run Disrupting Shoal or Vapor Snag, two of the better cards in Undoing Delver decks. I ended up regretfully trimming a Mandrills and a Denial to make room for the cards I wanted to include, but so far, this Monkey Grow/iGrow hybrid has tested phenomenally.

Banana Phone, by Jordan Boisvert

Creatures

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Monastery Swiftspear
4 Tarmogoyf
3 Hooting Mandrills

Sorceries

4 Serum Visions
4 Gitaxian Probe
3 Day's Undoing

Instants

4 Lightning Bolt
4 Disrupting Shoal
3 Stubborn Denial
2 Vapor Snag

Other

4 Mishra's Bauble

Lands

4 Scalding Tarn
4 Misty Rainforest
2 Wooded Foothills
2 Steam Vents
1 Breeding Pool
1 Stomping Ground
2 Island
1 Forest

Sideboard

4 Huntmaster of the Fells
2 Destructive Revelry
2 Ancient Grudge
2 Pyroclasm
2 Vapor Snag
1 Feed the Clan
1 Stubborn Denial
1 Day's Undoing

This deck has a lot more going on than meets the eye. First, it’s important to realize that all of the creatures synergize in some way with Mishra's Bauble. We can cast Undoing and guarantee a Bolt-proof Tarmogoyf with Bauble and a fetchland in play. Otherwise, the artifact grows Goyf bigger than Modern’s nastiest fatties. Bauble pumps Swiftspear before an attack and gives turn-one Delvers two chances at flipping. The 0-cost is relevant, too; playing and cracking Bauble before an Undoing lets us "store" the card and start with eight in our new opener, whereas topdecking an uncastable spell before Undoing "wastes" the draw that turn. Most importantly, Bauble fills the graveyard for Hooting Mandrills, who stays large after Day's Undoing and enables Stubborn Denial. Bauble isn't without its drawbacks, which is why I never included it in Monkey Grow or Pyromancer iGrow. Topdecking one when we need an answer and don't have a fetchland to scry with wastes the whole turn.

Disrupting ShoalA Shoal + Denial counter suite devastates linear strategies. When all seven counterspells cost zero or one mana, it becomes difficult for opponents to win a counter war and impossible for them to come out ahead on tempo in the process. Bauble boosts Tarmogoyf to make Denial more reliable, and I've included the fourth Denial in the sideboard for spell-heavy decks.

The Banana Phone (pretty funny, right?) mainboard has some weird numbers, entirely due to tightness. Running so many sweet cards complicates a trip to streamline city. Vapor Snag, an incredible player in iGrow, has two copies shaved since it does nothing against a few decks in Modern. Notably, Young Pyromancer doesn’t show up in this build at all. While Pyro gives iGrow a unique brand of attack by going wide, he shares a weakness to Pyroclasm effects with Delver and Swiftspear, and he doesn’t synergize with the rest of the cards well enough to merit inclusion. Stubborn Denial and Mishra's Bauble in particular start to look pretty pathetic with just a Young Pyromancer on the board.

The sideboard does everything. Against fair aggro decks, the Swiftspears, Undoings, and Baubles come out for sweeper effects, bounce spells, and Huntmasters. Against midrange, the fourth Undoing and some Snags come in for Bauble and Mandrills. Against linear decks, Denial replaces Undoing and the threats get switched around depending on relevance. Banana Phone has more post-board build options than any of my other Delver decks. Combining the versatility of Monkey Grow and iGrow, it truly gives players the best of both worlds.

You Can Go Anywhere

The big question: what does Banana Phone have over Pyromancer iGrow? Mainly, Stubborn Denial. The Denial deck holds its own in a field of combo, whereas the Pyromancer build can struggle against decks like Scapeshift. Day's Undoing gives it points against midrange, but Pyromancer has these already, and does an even better job against those decks with its full set of Undoings. I'd also call Pyromancer iGrow more consistent than Banana Phone - Mishra's Bauble does tend to gum up hands, especially openers, but it's a necessary evil in this build since we don't want to spend mana on Thought Scour.

As of today, here's a list of my deck choices for known metagames:

  • Combo-heavy meta: Monkey Grow
  • Midrange-heavy meta: iGrow
  • Aggro-heavy meta: Counter-Cat
  • Combo- and midrange-heavy meta: Banana Phone
  • Midrange- and aggro-heavy meta: Counter-Cat
  • Aggro- and combo-heavy meta: Counter-Cat
  • Open/unknown meta: whichever I feel like playing

I’ll be testing Banana Phone extensively in the coming weeks, but don’t count Pyromancer out of the equation. Red’s mythical two-drop is absolutely insane in this deck, and in metagames requiring fewer Negate effects, or ones lacking in red sweepers, I would prefer my original iGrow build to this one.

Jordan Boisvert

Jordan is Assistant Director of Content at Quiet Speculation and a longtime contributor to Modern Nexus. Best known for his innovations in Temur Delver and Colorless Eldrazi, Jordan favors highly reversible aggro-control decks and is always striving to embrace his biases when playing or brewing.

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Posted in Brewing, Modern, TechTagged , , , 30 Comments on Best of Both Worlds: Your Weekly Undoing Digest

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Mono-Red…Reanimator EDH? What!?

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Last article I opened up the floor to my readers and playgroups for ideas for my next article. The legend that had the most requests, at a whopping two, was Feldon of the Third Path. I was intrigued with the card since I saw it in the 2014 Commander set so I was excited to write about it.

What are we going to do with this though? Why, Mono-Red Reanimator of course, because that’s what mono-red is known for... /endsarcasm. Screw it, I like a challenge. So, what does Reanimator like to abuse? Enters and leaves the battlefield effects, big overly costed fatties and tricks--oh the tricks.

So not only did I decide to take this challenge, I decided to sit down and build the deck in one sitting. Half of this was to challenge myself, the other half was I’ve been busy. So be kind to this list, as not only am I not a red player, but I’m also, not a red player!!

Feldon of the Third Path EDH by (Julian Biondillo)

Commander

Creatures

Spells

Lands

35 Snow-Covered Mountain  Darksteel Citadel  Great Furnace  Scrying Sheets  Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx

Here's where I tell you the general point of reanimator-styled decks. Just in case you're unaware of how to load up your graveyard with fatties and pull them back into play. Ah, but this isn't quite like a usual reanimator deck as our sad, longing, general Feldon of the Third Path doesn't bring back the creature but makes a robot of the dead! How...metal!! All puns intended!

This is unique so we can abuse more come-into-play effects and with his sacrifice clause we also get a free dies/leaves the battle field trigger off our guys. This works well with Pandemonium, Warstorm Surge, and Stalking Vengeance.

We like cake and we like to eat it as well, so we added some sacrifice outlets for even more value! Goblin Bombardment, Goblin Welder, Bosh, Iron Golem, and Trading Post are the eating of that cake we get to have!

Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker can also copy those sad effigies of Feldon of the Third Path's lost loves and get mo triggers, mo value, mo fun!! My biggest concern with this list is we don't have good ways to load up our yard. Luckily our broken kitties, Masticore and Razormane Masticore, have an insatiable appetite for cards in your hand. Chandra Ablaze, Jaya Ballard, Task Mage, Daretti, Scrap Savant and Mad Prophet, to name a few, will also help pile up the bodies and keep our "lifetime movie of the week" sad general hard at work creating all the robots our hearts desire.

I'm hoping next week to take a bit of a turn away from my usual topic of writing and actually do a somewhat serious piece about a fellow gamer and the trials and tribulations she faces as a female competitive player. So until next time thanks again for reading. Sing me praise, hate, or a good recipe for a spicy homemade chili in the comments below or at my email or twitter.

Until next time!!

Thanks for checking out my article!

x Julian Biondillo x
Julian, AKA hardcoreniceguy on Twitter
biondillodesign@gmail.com

Insider: Recapping PT Origins – Moving Towards October

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Hey everyone!

Welcome back. I’m here to present to you yet another brilliant set of words to feast your eyes on. A ton of stuff happened since the last time I’ve talked to you all, and I apologize. I did however sit behind the scenes and bring you Pro Tour coverage, working with Kelly to give you all the best information via Insider Alerts from sources I locked down on the floor.

So, shout out to everyone on the team that covered the PT, and I think we did a fantastic job. Hope you all did too. So while you haven’t read my words, I hope you all felt my presence through the very informative alerts and coverage!

To recap briefly: we all know that Abbot of Keral Keep and Demonic Pact were the frontrunners of the Pro Tour. I want to take this time to shout out to the QS Insider forums and our analysis of Abbot since the pre-order period. We really knocked it out of the park and it’s a real testament to good card evaluation.

It’s discussions like these that really enable us to purchase cards well before they end up doing well at tournaments and spiking. At 3$ and under I’m sure many of you reaped some good returns at this point. Congrats!

This was the decklist that won the tournament, making back-to-back Pro Tours spiked by Mono-Red.

Joel Larssons Red Aggro

Creatures

4 Abbot of Keral Keep
3 Firedrinker Satyr
4 Lightning Berserker
4 Monastery Swiftspear
3 Zurgo Bellstriker

Spells

4 Exquisite Firecraft
1 Fiery Impulse
4 Lightning Strike
4 Searing Blood
4 Stoke the Flames
4 Wild Slash

Lands

21 Mountain

Sideboard

2 Chandra, Pyromaster
4 Eidolon of the Great Revel
3 Satyr Firedancer
2 Arc Lightning
4 Roast

I’m an aggressive player at heart, and I really just have to say I love this “new age” red list. Red has never had this type of pseudo-card advantage in the form of cards like Abbot of Keral Keep and Outpost Siege.

It’s really so refreshing to me to play this deck these days and it's actually as insanely potent than it’s ever been. Sure, we don’t have all-stars like Lightning Bolt or Hellrider but the deck has plenty of reach. It’s really a testament to how powerful a card like Outpost Siege is when a sure loss can start making the opponent bite their nails to close out the game and actually almost lose.

That was a great match to watch during the PT, right? I loved it.

Now, when evaluating these decklists (and every other Pro Tour) the Top 8 doesn’t always tell the story of what to expect going forward. While what ends up making the Top 8 does make a difference (look to MODO for what happened to Demonic Pact) there’s still plenty of opportunity with decklists that didn’t make Top 8. You have to remember that sometimes a bad draft can keep out a player like Brian Kibler, who went 9-1 during the Standard portion. These split format events are a little tricky to track in that regard, but luckily the coverage crew was able to relay that to everyone. So, be sure to look at Doug’s article about how we covered Pro Tour.

Now, let’s get down to the finance stuff shall we?

What follows is a list of picks I put together as I evaluated the Pro Tour lists, along with a few recent MODO dailies as well. It’s always good to check these events post-Pro Tour to get a sense of what is “sticking” in the metagame. Now, unfortunately some of these archetypes won’t really survive that well come October, and even existing decklists might change as the landscape will be riddled with giant Eldrazi.

A deck like U/R Thopter, and subsequently its parts like Ensoul Artifact obviously won’t be making the cut in my lists. However, I wanted to list some still inexpensive cards going forward that may survive rotation along with its archetype.

Quick October Picks

There’s certainly a theme here: Fate Reforged is sort of a goldmine. It wasn't drafted nearly as much as the other sets, and is still in Standard for quite some time. The others are simply cards I have written down and listed here as cards I feel could still be underpriced.

Again, this is my opinion. I understand there are certain stipulations:

  • I know Outpost Siege has a supplemental product printing. To be fair, so did Courser of Kruphix. I know there are a ton of them out there. I still think under 1$ seems like a great pickup to me. It’s not like it’s going anywhere anytime soon and will likely still be played in Mono-Red.
  • Mantis Rider was in Khans. It was heavily opened. I do understand that. It’s still an amazing card for its cost, and it’s not like we will be opening Khans as much as we used to.
  • Don’t hate on the Citadel Siege pick! I know, it’s wonky. Fellow writer Adam Yurchick wrote about an insanely spicy “counters” list featuring this and Hardened Scales. Turns out someone was running it at the Pro Tour! Ken Yukihiro played this list. Doesn’t that look extremely fun? The best part is--most of those cards stick around! It’s almost like a Khans/Origins event deck with some small Theros splashed in. I know I’m biased here but this was the most intriguing decks to me. At .25c (or less) there’s really not that much risk. It has proven to be Constructed-viable. Hopefully that translates past October.
  • I think Silumgar's Command is actually not a gimmick to play alongside Demonic Pact. It’s honestly very good in its own right. Clearly Daniel Fournier thought it was good enough, and brought it to a 6-2 finish in Standard. This has spilled over into the MODO dailies (remember when I said to check those?) with a 4-0 finish and a few 3-1 finishes.

The rest of the cards are well-known and -documented in the Standard Constructed environment. I do try to stay away from the claim that “this card is a slam dunk at rotation,” and urge you all to be cautious about investment too. The thing is, these cards are actually powerful, and actually do see a great deal of play. A card like Underworld Cerberus, to use as my long-time example, never saw play in any capacity. Hey, neither did Desecration Demon--before things lined up for it.

I could sit here and list so many of the different cards that panned out and didn't with the “slam dunk at rotation” mantra, but I won’t, so the general “be cautious” warning will have to suffice. I did list some compelling reasoning behind all of my ranting and raving, so take it for what it’s worth. I like to think my research is beneficial, and I’m glad to share it all with you in hopes that it is for you too! That's why I’m here isn’t it?

Oh, one last thought--be sure to check out the major retailer Summer Sales. There’s also a thread about it on the forums. Be sure to contribute, there are sometimes some worthwhile buys during these sales. I’ve already taken advantage of the most recent sale.

For transparency:

40 Outpost Siege @.48c
32 Frontier Siege @.32c

Just seemed like it was too good to pass up. I understand Frontier Siege wasn't on my list, and I’m really not trying to hype it (or any other cards I list). It just happened to be on sale as well and I wanted to mitigate some of the shipping cost and add more quantity to the order. It has shown some viability in Standard before; maybe it will again once we’re looking to ramp into Eldrazi.

That’s all for now, hopefully you all benefited and profited since I wrote to you all last, and hopefully my quick list sparks even better ideas!

If you haven’t heard it already, we posted the QS Podcast - Episode 1, and you can hear Kelly, Doug, and myself talk about some of the cards I listed here. I will say again, I just think FTR is a goldmine.

So, get your pickaxes ready!

Until next time everyone.

-Chaz (@boltsnapbolt)

Insider: Standard After Vancouver

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Pro Tour Origins was my second PT, and while I didn't go 11-5 to round up another PT invite, it was still a great experience. Vancouver is a beautiful city, and Magic Origins is a set that I enjoy very much. While I was playing, most of you were probably keeping an eye on the value of Standard cards. Unsurprisingly, stock in Origins has gone up. Let's talk about where those numbers are heading.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hangarback Walker

Hangarback Walker has dropped off a bit after a big price jump due to PT hype, but appears to be back on an upswing. I've said before that I like this card, and expect it to be worth money for as long as it's Standard legal. Even with a $15 price tag, the spread on this card is a scant 21%. At the time of this writing, Card Kingdom is buying up to 346 copies of Hangarback from $13 each. This is the Goblin Rabblemaster of Origins.

I played the Thopters deck at the Pro Tour, and Hangarback was the only card that was great regardless of drawing anything to synergize with it. As an artifact, it's a card that anybody can play, and I've become convinced that more decks should run it. Expect to play with and against this card for as long as it's Standard-legal.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abbot of Keral Keep

I was expecting Abbot to jump, I was not expecting it to jump this much. Abbots could have been preordered for $2-3, which left me identifying them as a trade target rather than a buy. Card Kingdom is now buying over 400 of them at $6 a piece.

Red is going to lose some tools with rotation, but it will still be a force. That said, I don't like Abbot as a long-term hold. I'd keep a set for Standard play, but Abbot doesn't fit into a wide range of decks, and Standard-only burn deck rares don't usually command very high price tags. If you're sitting on these, I'd try to ship them quickly.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Exquisite Firecraft

Here's another great red card with a high buylist price. Once again, we're looking at a Standard-only card. The fact that Exquisite Firecraft has the ability to not be countered means that it has some casual appeal, but for the most part this is just another Standard rare that will tick down after everybody gets their copies. This is another sell.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Vastwood Seer

The verdict is in, and this card is good in Abzan, with a couple copies showing up in some of the G/r Devotion lists. This card will likely see Standard play as a two- to three-of in a couple decks for as long as it's in Standard. Nissa could see a bump if green decks become completely dominant, but for the most part I see her holding steady in the $20 range.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy

Jace saw his breakout performance in Matt Tickal's Abzan Rally deck, and could be seen in a number of U/B Control decks at the PT. Jace's price really took off a couple weeks ago, but has cooled down to about $25. Searing Blood is a big barrier to Jace's success currently, but we now know that Jace is great, and should expect to see him show up as a four-of throughout his time in Standard.

I could see Jace dropping a couple more bucks as we build up to Battle for Zendikar, at which point I start to like him as a buy. There are very small diminishing returns on this two-mana walker due to his looting ability, and a Jace/Dig Through Time deck could pretty easily become dominant and launch Jace back into the $30 range. I'd watch this guy.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Heretical Healer

This week I saw a Modern player cast a mana dork into Liliana into Fulminator Mage. That was sweet. At the end of the day, Liliana looks more like a Modern card than a Standard card, but there's a chance that Liliana could show up in more Standard decks, likely in conjunction with Collected Company.

Liliana is on a heavy downswing, and I don't expect it to level off just yet. I could easily see her dropping to around $10, at which point I'd look at picking up some copies. She's very powerful, but what she needs is a solid home. I'm not convinced that we fully understand this card yet.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Demonic Pact

Speaking of cards that we haven't figured out, Demonic Pact is a card that my team desperately wanted to break, but which we didn't feel we had the time to. In the decks we played it in, it performed very well whenever it was drawn. It just so happened that the decks themselves were pretty lacking. There were a number of different builds with a number of different reasons for this, but at the end of the day I'm not ready to dismiss the card.

Pact is dipping back down, which isn't surprising without great PT results, but I recommend picking up copies while it's around $5. Somebody will break this given enough time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Languish

It's hard not to talk about Origins without talking about Languish. That said, it's not a very interesting card to talk about. I imagine its price will float between $5-10 for the next year, and it will generally be a great card to have in your trade binder. Considering that there are already great X/5s in Standard, it's tough to imagine Languish being just completely dominant, which is a good thing for Magic.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tragic Arrogance

Tragic Arrogance was in the Abzan build that most of my team played at the PT, and it was great against decks like U/R Thopters and G/r Devotion. The common thread there was that these decks play some great cards and some garbage cards. Arrogance is pretty tragic against things like Mono-Red and Abzan mirrors, but it definitely has applications. I see this card as being a player, if only a minor one, during its time in Standard. There's no way that it should be a bulk rare.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Anafenza, the Foremost

I've been hyping this card for a while, and recently it picked up from $2 closer to $3. I've only come to like this card more over time, and Hangarback Walker is yet another reason. It both makes your Walker bigger, and stops theirs from triggering. You also need to be doing something on three when Courser rotates, so there's some food for thought. She'll minimally triple during her time in Standard.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Day's Undoing

This last one isn't a Standard card, but it's worth talking about. There's not really anything going on for this one as a Standard card, but it's starting to see small amounts of play in Legacy and players who have been testing it in Affinity have reported that it's insane. This card is approaching its floor one way or the other with such a low price point, and will inevitably catch somewhere and spike.

~

Magic Origins has delivered as Magic's final core set. There are a lot of tournament-playable cards with many of them having non-obvious applications. Hopefully you've already picked up your Hangarbacks, but there are plenty of other routes to make money.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Insider: Gen Con 101

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It all started with ice cream sandwiches. But you see, who needs 12 ice cream sandwiches for just themselves? So, I started handing them out. The nice fellow ringing me out at the grocery store got one. Another two went to a father and son walking out of the movie theater. The boys face filled with joy as I handed him his cool treat on not only a ridiculously hot night but also his birthday!

My night would have been complete at that but I went inside to see what movies were playing. After offering some more ice cream to some customers leaving the theater, I proceeded to pass them out to the employees.

While we were eating our ice cream I started chatting about the movies they had playing. In short, all the good ones were already playing or completed. Since there were hardly any people in the theater, I joked about them playing a movie for me. Sometimes all you have to do is ask. This is the story of Gen Con.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Vryn's Prodigy
There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Vastwood Seer

1. Be Open to Spontaneous Fun

There are tons of memories like this floating around in my head from various Magic road trips throughout the years. None of them would be there though if I didn’t have a go-with-the-flow attitude. This can be difficult for someone like me because I’m the planner. I’m the one who takes care of the arrangements and gets everyone together for the trip.

Plans can be flexible though. If friends ask you to go out or you have a good idea, go with it. Don’t let it disrupt your tournament but outside of that, have fun. Magic isn’t all business. If you make it only that, you’ll burn out and you’ll lose your fire. Make time to have fun. That’s what makes it all worth it. You can 0-2 drop an event and still have a blast. Sure it would have been better to crush the event, but no one can crush every event.

Gen Con was great and I definitely had lots of stories to tell. When was the last time you convinced the movie theater to play the movie you wanted to see when you wanted to see it? It’ll probably never happen again, but stuff like this happens all the time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hangarback Walker
There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana, Heretical Healer

2. Hotel Arrangements

Normally, players tend to make plans for events at the last minute. Even when you have planned an event months ahead of time, the hotel stays unbooked until the week of the event. For GP's, Star City Opens, and Regional PTQ’s this is no big deal but if you follow this procedure for Gen Con, it will only end in disappointment.

What we may fail to remember is just how many people attend Gen Con. This is the largest gaming convention in the world. There will be more people there than all the events you attend in a year put together. That’s not an exaggeration, it simply is true. If you try to go at the last minute, you will be paying an astronomical amount for your hotel, or staying over an hour away from the convention center.

The best bet is to finalize your plans at least a month ahead of time. This is not your average road trip and things need to be taken care of ahead of time. Luckily, even though this was my first time, I have a lot of friends that attend every year so I had a heads-up on this aspect.

Even when you take care of these arrangements ahead of time, unexpected things can still happen. For example, even if your hotel has good ratings and says they have everything you need, sometimes you get there and it’s all a lie. When you get to the place you booked sometimes the air conditioning is broken, the room is dirty, and the fridge you were excited about looks like someone’s beverage exploded all over the place. In this position, despite the difficulty, you likely want to look for another place to stay.

When you are booking hotels regularly, you want a system that is quick and easy. In addition, it’s great if they are cheap as well. To this end, I’ve been using online booking sites like Expedia and Hotwire as tools to help with this endeavor. Beware that if there are ever problems with your room, these sites are difficult to deal with. Between the hotel and the web site customer service, no one seems to be in charge. They will both tell you that the other one won’t let them refund you.

Be calm and steadfast and tell them exactly what you want. This approach has worked and in case you’re missing the behind the scenes on this one, yes this did happen to me this past weekend. Be prepared to be on the phone for an extended amount of time in order to get your problems fixed. Remember, no matter what anyone says, the web site can always at minimum give you a credit towards your next booking. From this weekend, I have not one, but two credits to use over the next year. It was definitely not a boring weekend.

To sum it up, make your plans for Gen Con way in advance, but don’t feel bad for standing up for yourself if the hotel doesn’t meet your needs.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pia and Kiran Nalaar
There was an error retrieving a chart for Chandra, Fire of Kaladesh

3. Magic Tournaments at Conventions

You may not know this but the tournaments that they have at conventions have been planned for over six months. Not only do you need to plan ahead of time, but so do the organizers. They have decided what events they will run, what time they will fire, and what the prize structure will be even before you decide you are going to the convention.

This means that there will be tons of events to choose from. Inevitably there will be events you want to compete in that overlap, so you will have to decide exactly what events you want to play in. You can usually do this on site, but some events fill their capacity and then there won’t be a spot left for you. With the Magic events, I have not found this to be the case regularly because we are used to registering on site.

In order to register for these events, you will need to use the convention's money system of ‘generics.’ These are just tickets that you have bought that represent $2 each. Your other option is registering for the event ahead of time, and then you could pick up your ticket for the event and use that. Either way, you still need to register for the event in the hall where it’s taking place. Every other event for other games you just show up with your ticket and they admit you. For these Magic events, it’s almost like you have to register twice.

You can play in normal events like a seven round Standard/Modern/Sealed tournament, but there are also lots of other fun events that aren’t available anywhere else. Take Sealed Draft for example. When I read this I thought the company running the event didn’t check their events for typos, but as it turns out, that’s an actual event. So what happens is you get three packs and open them. After taking a look at what you opened, you get another three packs and draft with them. When you have all your cards, you use those six packs worth of cards to build your decks with. What an intriguing event!

There are lots of other cool events to play in like Chaos Drafts, 64-player drafts where first place in each pod moves on to the Top 8 draft, and Minimaster events, among others. With so many interesting events, decide carefully which you want to play in. Some of them may qualify you for the Gen Con Championship, while others can win you unique prizes.

Another way to go about your decision-making process is to keep track of how many players are participating in each event. As I mentioned, these events are planned far ahead of time and they don’t stop them from firing if they have low attendance. You can try to join under-participated events for a higher chance to win, but sometimes you get lucky.

My 64-player draft, for instance, had 9 players. So, instead of it being two drafts, we moved straight on to the Top 8 draft to see which one person wasn’t getting a sweet prize. Even though my draft was a train wreck, I ended up with $40 in singles from the draft and my 2-2 record was enough to secure 5th place. I’ve been telling everyone it’s the best worst draft I’ve ever done. What other time could you be rewarded with a box of Magic Origins for going 2-2 in a draft?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Thopter Spy Network
There was an error retrieving a chart for Ensoul Artifact

4. What Else Is at Gen Con

At Gen Con, you might be able to play Magic 24 hours a day, but there are also tons of other things going on. The list is quite long of all the games that will be played at the convention. Everything from role playing games to board games to other card games will be available at this one-of-a-kind event. Whatever you’re into outside of Magic, they will likely have it available for you over the course of the five days.

In addition to the long list of games to play, there are also seminars that you can attend on a variety of topics, celebrities available for autographs, cosplay, and a gigantic dealer hall filled to the brim with everything we love.

You’ve seen dealer halls before, but you’ve never experienced anything like this. Picture an NFL Football field, or bigger, as the room you’re in and from wall to wall, it’s filled with everything nerdy you could imagine. There are game companies there to demo their games for you, dealers available to sell you anything you could imagine and tons of stuff to look at. I spent a lot of time in the dealer room and I don’t think I saw everything there. At conventions like this, the dealer hall is typically open from 10am-6pm so you need to schedule your time such that you can explore everything at the convention.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abbot of Keral Keep
There was an error retrieving a chart for Exquisite Firecraft

5. Magic Dealers at Gen Con

Just like every other vendor at the convention, the Magic dealers are spread out across the hall. There isn’t a specific section where they are all grouped together; they’re all over the place. This means a lot of opportunity for us financially. I wish I had taken more advantage of this over the weekend, but now I know for next year.

Because everything is scattered, that means that some booths get a steady stream of players selling cards and some don’t. If you can locate the ones with less traffic, you are more likely to get better buy prices. In addition, another boon of this layout is that the dealers cannot observe how the others are pricing their cards. Is someone undercutting everyone? There’s no way for them to know and this presents opportunity for you as a financier to profit. You may not have time because there are so many things to do at the convention, but if you make the time, it can be well worth your while.

Another aspect that can present amazing opportunities is the coinciding Pro Tour. Maybe this was a fluke, but this year, Gen Con was on the same weekend as Pro Tour Magic Origins. We know that prices fluctuate the most during and after these events because the professionals have a higher chance to break the format or at least redefine it.

So, all the cards you’ve been seeing in this article that spiked could have been purchased for much less during the convention. It’s like having a dozen local game stores within walking distance while a spike is occurring. That type of thing doesn’t happen often, but when it does, it presents tremendous opportunity.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Demonic Pact
There was an error retrieving a chart for Llanowar Wastes

Finally, look over the article again and take in the major price changes from this weekend. Use the info to help you out moving forward.

The Llanowar Wastes may seem out of place, but I included it for a specific purpose. This land has retained more of its value than any of the other pain lands, mostly due to the prevalence of Abzan decks in the format. The thing about that particular one though is that due to the demand, the retail price may be low, but the buy price should remain strong. I know I have to buy this land at a higher percentage than the other four so keep that in mind when you’re at the trade tables.

Well, I hope you enjoyed this Gen Con write up. There were plenty of interesting things that happened at the event and I learned so much from my first experience. It was a great time and I highly recommend it.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

The Big Time: A Pro Tour Retrospective

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This past weekend I traveled to beautiful Vancouver to play Magic competitively at the highest professional stage. The format: Magic Origins Standard and Booster Draft. While not Modern, the Pro Tour is still the Pro Tour, and I figured a report from the perspective of a wide-eyed first timer would make for an interesting read. The level of excitement and hype leading into the event was incredible; as the final event of the 2014-2015 Professional Season many players were giving their all in their final chance to achieve individual Pro Players Club goals and secure their respective positions as Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and country representative spots for the World Magic Cup. As this was my first ever Pro Tour, my dreams were just as high, but my goals were a little more modest: make Day 2, don’t embarrass myself, try not to get DQ’d. This is my tournament report.

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Preparation for Pro Tour Magic Origins began for me as soon as I qualified through my Regional PTQ win in April. My familiarity with the format at that time was spotty at best, as my attention towards Magic spiked during Theros and Khans of Tarkir releases but dropped off considerably during BNG/JOU and Fate Reforged. This meant that I was familiar with most of the top decks, but didn’t have a lot of experience regarding the various brews and what did/didn’t work or what had previously been tried/unexplored territory. This in mind, I embarked on my own personal Magic crash course; streaming my blunders with the world, who laughed along as I experienced for the first time decks like Heroic and Reanimator Whip strategies that had been around for weeks and months. This was very successful, as the resulting hilarity helped me grow my stream and reach Partnership while also letting me form the groundwork for testing once Origins came out.

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During spoiler season we made up a few brews on stream, including *spoiler alert* a deck very similar to the U/R deck that was the talk of the Pro Tour. As I had no testing “team” I knew going in that my time would be limited. I attempted to overcome this disadvantage by making a schedule and sticking to it; I would start earlier, work harder, and think smarter than everyone else. My inexperience would not be my downfall, if I was to be bested, it would be because of a disparity in skill, not preparation or resources.

Thoughts about the Format

Once the full spoiler was released, we started settling in and looking at the format as a whole, seeing what might change, and what would stay the same. When I say we I refer to the viewers on my stream, twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming, as we brainstormed together and built decks and jammed games right up to the night before my flight. Testing, and just looking analytically at the cards and decks people were talking about led me to some broad conclusions:

  • LanguishLanguish, or possibly just the threat of Languish, looked like it would push Abzan Aggro right out of the metagame. Previously, the deck was able to take advantage of strong, resilient creatures at every spot of the curve that were both “must-answer” and “hard to kill”. Devotion strategies and Stormbreath Dragon made Ultimate Price one of the most appealing removal spells in the format, except for the fact that it is entirely dead against Abzan Aggro. Languish, as said by many, is a game-changer, as it invalidates all of the awkward positioning Abzan Aggro tries to create.
  • The absence of Abzan Aggro could possibly lead to a resurgence in enchantments. Previously, the ability of one of the top decks in the format to play four Dromoka's Command helped keep red in check, while doing great work against individual cards like Outpost Siege and Jeskai Ascendancy.
  • Nissa Sage AnimistThe flip-walkers all seemed relatively strong and looked like they would crop up in most decks.
  • Incorporating Nissa into Abzan, along with the exodus of 3/3’s and 4/4’s in the best aggro deck led me to believe that Wild Slash’s stock would rise greatly. I took this as a sign that I should move away from Goblin Rabblemaster as a result, so as not to get caught up in the Wild Slashes others would play, when I probably should have just sleeved up Wild Slash myself.
  • The format looked like it would move decidedly more midrange, with Abzan gaining more consistency and power through Languish and Nissa, while Devotion gained a strong anti-control option in Gaea's Revenge.

The way I saw it, the Pro Tour metagame could move in two directions post Magic Origins release. With Abzan being the de-facto “deck to beat”, control decks like U/B and Sultai and midrange value decks like Constellation and Whip could rise up to fight Abzan, while looking to their sideboards to beat Aggro and Devotion. Or, the format could go hyper-aggressive, possibly with a return to Atarka Red and dash decks that attempt to fight Languish and Drown in Sorrow. While I knew that there were great examples of Pros picking up strong linear decks and crushing in the past (Tempered Steel at Worlds 2011, Bant Auras at Grand Prix Atlantic City 2013) I expected most teams to stick to the top decks with some small positional changes rather than try and attack the field with something new.

Testing Decks

Golbin PiledriverFirst, I built Goblins, because Goblins. The deck looked strong, synergistic, and powerful, and seemed like it would be able to capitalize on tapped lands and awkward three mana removal better than any other deck in the field. In addition, the strategy seemed surprisingly resilient to Wild Slash, as Foundry Street Denizen/Goblin Piledriver/Goblin Rabblemaster are each must-answer threats that demand cheap removal, while Dragon Fodder and Hordeling Outburst work to attack from a different direction. In addition, Frenzied Goblin/Goblin Heelcutter and Obelisk of Urd both seemed strong against opponents interested in interacting inside combat, and the deck still had great sideboard options in Roast and Searing Blood.

Unfortunately, the deck died to Drown in Sorrow. So bad. It had draws where it could drop an Obelisk on Turn 3, on the play, but even then it still died to Languish. Other decks like Atarka Red at least had access to strong burn spells and burst damage capabilities; Goblins was just too one-dimensional and easily disrupted.

From Goblins I moved on to U/R artifacts. Origins was kind to the archetype, granting the strategy tons of options all the way up the curve. Most people were talking about a midrange value strategy that looked to work its way up to Scuttling Doom Engine, but I was focused in keeping the curve low. Before Origins, Standard options for U/R included Ensoul Artifact, Shrapnel Blast, Springleaf Drum, Ornithopter, and Ghostfire Blade, all of which seemed to push the deck towards a faster identity. Doom Engine was just not something I was interested in when I had relative blanks like Ornithopter and Shrapnel Blast in my deck (deal 5’s are worse when trying to kill our opponent from 20). Before I abandoned the deck, this is where I was at:

UR Artifacts, by Trevor Holmes

Creatures

4 Chief of the Foundry
2 Hangarback Walker
4 Ornithopter
3 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Bonded Construct
2 Pia and Kiran Nalaar

Artifacts

2 Bident of Thassa
4 Ghostfire Blade
4 Springleaf Drum

Enchantments

4 Ensoul Artifact

Instants

4 Shrapnel Blast

Sorceries

4 Day's Undoing

Lands

4 Darksteel Citadel
1 Foundry of the Consuls
3 Island
1 Tomb of the Spirit Dragon
3 Mana Confluence
1 Mountain
4 Shivan Reef
2 Temple of Epiphany

Sideboard

4 Disdainful Stroke
4 Roast
4 Wild Slash
1 Seismic Rupture
2 Bident of Thassa

My experiences with and against the deck pre-Origins taught me an important lesson: there is an incredible difference between the games where we draw Ensoul Artifact and the games we don’t. I wasn’t sure it would work, but I wanted to try Day's Undoing in a Ensoul Artifacthyper-aggressive, synergistic deck that could take the most advantage out of the draw 7. Bonded Construct seemed like a strict upgrade to Keeper of the Lens, and Chief Engineer could help us dump our hand, using our 0 and 1 drop creatures to convoke out our bigger spells. With Day's Undoing and Chief of the Foundry as the top of our curve, we could play a super low land count alongside Springleaf Drum, and use Day's Undoing to refill while searching for our 10’s at the same time (Shrapnel Blast/Ensoul Artifact). I tested a few different options in the four slot, including Pia and Kiran Nalaar, Thopter Spy Network, Bident of Thassa, and Hangarback Walker (a functioning four, even though it does just as well as a two). Spy Network was definitely strong but played better in the grindy artifact decks like Jeff Hoogland’s U/W Thopter Control, while Bident of Thassa was an artifact and could be convoked out with Chief Engineer.

The deck seemed incredibly strong and was performing very well against the stock lists. It had some issues (due primarily to deckbuilding, as I was obviously the only one putting work in on the list) and I knew I had something, but I unfortunately just ran out of time and knew I couldn’t get the deck where it needed to be to make it through 10 rounds of Standard.

Picking a Deck

With the SCG Chicago and Richmond results, I had a new contender to worry about: Abzan Rally. The deck seemed incredibly powerful and hard to disrupt, as they can attack from multiple angles (combo, aggro, and value). It was giving Abzan Control fits, and I knew it would do well against blue control as well (I clearly remember being brutalized by Zach Jesse with Abzan Rally at the RPTQ’s when I was piloting Esper Control, my only loss in the event). It even seemed strong against aggro, as Satyr Wayfinder/Arashin Cleric/Deathmist Raptor value can be hard to fight through, especially with Rally bringing everything back.

With only a week left to prepare, I decided to just pick a deck and get experienced with the matchups. For better or worse, I chose Abzan Control.

Abzan Control, by Trevor Holmes, PT Magic Origins July 2015, 166th place

Creatures

4 Siege Rhino
4 Courser of Kruphix
3 Den Protector
2 Nissa, Vastwood Seer
1 Tasigur, the Golden Fang
3 Satyr Wayfinder

Instants

3 Abzan Charm
3 Hero's Downfall
1 Bile Blight
1 Ultimate Price
1 Murderous Cut

Planeswalkers

2 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Ajani, Mentor of Heroes

Sorceries

2 Languish
3 Thoughtseize

Lands

2 Caves of Koilos
4 Forest
2 Llanowar Wastes
1 Plains
4 Sandsteppe Citadel
4 Temple of Malady
3 Temple of Silence
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
4 Windswept Heath

Sideboard

1 Ultimate Price
2 Dromoka's Command
2 Drown in Sorrow
1 Duress
1 Crux of Fate
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Thoughtseize
1 Hallowed Moonlight
2 Anafenza, the Foremost
1 Nissa, Worldwaker
2 Arashin Cleric

Hilariously, my maindeck ended up being just a few cards off from what Matt Sperling played to a Top 4 finish. I wanted Satyr Wayfinders to let me play a lower land count, make my Satyr WayfinderTasigurs and Den Protectors better, and let me play a Murderous Cut as well (which is excellent to get back off a Protector flip), but I didn’t want to play Deathmist Raptor. Call it personal preference, call it play style, I just felt like my list would be better with access to more room for stronger bullets, and I knew I wouldn’t be able to fit Nissa, Vastwood Seer in (which was a perfect 10, btw) with so many other threes. I expected most of the field to go midrange, so I hedged by playing an Ajani, Mentor of Heroes maindeck (which seemed to be universally maligned, but I love) and a second copy of Ugin, the Spirit Dragon in the sideboard. I packed some hate for Rally, some anti-control cards, and some stuff for Mono-Red and got to work preparing for Limited. I’m not sure if anyone is interested in a detailed breakdown of my exact list, but if so, let me know in the comments or hop by my stream and I’ll gladly answer any questions.

Magic Origins Draft

Blue sits in this weird position where it contains far and away the best C/U in Whirler Rogue, but beyond that the color just stinks. Artificer's Epiphany is strictly worse than Read the Bones, Claustrophobia is worse than Reave Soul, on and on. Black, green, and red seemed especially strong (in that order) and I knew I wanted to be either B/R or B/G in draft. I’m not joking when I say that two drops are the single most important thing in this format, and prioritizing two drops over stronger, more expensive options is something I continuously struggle with in Draft. Beyond that, I was able to get about 12-15 drafts in; nowhere near enough, but at least enough to get me familiar with the format and able to spot signals.

The Pro Tour!

I sat down to my first draft pod with Lucas Siow on my left and Brian Braun-Duin on my right. Welcome to the big time! My first pack was relatively weak, with Gideon's Phalanx as the Gideons Phalanxrare and Unholy Hunger as the only other option in the pack. While black is the color I wanted to be in, Unholy Hunger is not the best removal spell, and I’d definitely be much happier first picking a Reave Soul, Fleshbag Marauder, or maybe even a Nantuko Husk. I ended up taking the Phalanx, which in my experience has been fine but not great, and ended up with a sweet U/W deck with 3 Celestial Flare, 2 Suppression Bonds, 2 Claustrophobia, a Disperse and even a Thunderclap Wyvern. Lots of power, but my curve was very bad with almost no two drops. This would come back to bite me, as I consistently died to my opponent just drawing things and eventually outdrawing my removal while I was unable to apply pressure. I 1-2’d the pod, and definitely could have 2-1’d with a little better luck. Time for Standard!

Day 1 Standard

I took two quick losses to David Kaplan playing Abzan Rally and Kazuya Murakami playing U/B Control Mage Ring Networksplashing Garruk, Apex Predator. His deck was sweet, featuring Mage-Ring Network as a four-of (I believe, as he had it turn two every game) to charge up and drop a Garruk as early as turn five, even if he doesn’t find the Network until turn three. With some better draws I definitely could have beaten both decks, as my deck drew pretty subpar while my Abzan Rally opponent hit a Collected Company and two Rally the Ancestors in four cards to fight through my Thoughtseize and Hallowed Moonlight. At 1-4, I had to Rally myself to make Day 2.

What followed was a string of three wins against two mirrors and a G/W Elf Company deck splashing Shaman of the Pack. My win and in was a super tight match against David Jetha, where I won on turn four of time when we only had eight minutes to play the third game. Major props to him for playing quickly and helping both of us avoid a draw.

Day 2 Draft

My Day 2 Draft was another star studded affair, as I sat to the right of Gold level Rookie of the Year Raymond Perez Jr. and two Platinum Pros in Josh McClain and Martin Juza. I’m not sure, but I believe I p1p1’d a Fleshbag Marauder, followed by multiple other strong black cards in Unholy Hunger and Reave Soul, until jumping into red which were both wide open. I had a feeling the player to my right was red, as I passed some strong red cards like Fiery Impulse and Subterranean Scout early, but a super late Act of Treason assured me I was definitely in the right colors. I was looking very solid going into Pack 3, with a good curve (though relatively two drop light), lots of removal (including three Unholy Hungers) and two Fleshbag Marauders. P3P1 I opened a Whirler Rogue, but unfortunately had to pass it on, I was then passed three Abbot of Keral Keep in a row. Abbot of Keral KeepHaving not played with Abbot in Limited before, I wasn’t sure of its ranking, and I’m pretty sure I punted by passing them on. My reasoning was that at the time I was pretty top-heavy for a B/R deck (with the 3 Hungers, Revenant, Enthralling Victor, and Prickleboar) but I ended up with just two drops (Dragon Fodder and Subterranean Scout) and really regretted not taking them.

My deck was still solid, however, and I was able to easily win my first round against Andre Ramos Lima, who was sitting to my right, feeding me B/R, yet was still B/R himself! His deck was even more insane than mine, as he not only grabbed the three Abbot of Keral Keep but an Avaricious Dragon and Flameshadow Conjuring as well. In the second round of Draft I defeated Martin Juza in two games running G/W Renown. We both experienced some mana issues, but my removal let me power through both his defenses and his grumbling to take the match. To 3-0 the pod I had to face Juan Carlos Diaz with U/G, but my deck fell apart a bit and I couldn’t keep up with his draws. I was almost able to double Act of Treason his renowned Outland Colossus and second creature to hit him for exactsies, but he had the Turn to Frog. This ended a strong 5 match winning streak and put me at 6-5 going into Round 12.

Day 2 Standard

A win against David Heineman playing Mono Red put me to 7-5, within range of Top 75 and $1,000 cash if I could 3-1. His Mono Red deck was excellent, the Team version I believe, with lots of burn spells and maindeck Searing Blood. I was hopelessly outmatched, and couldn’t blank his Bloods if I tried as I was on Satyr Wayfinder, so I had to leave Nissa, Vastwood Seer and other subpar options in my deck. Courser of Kruphix and Siege Rhino still exist, however, and I was able to take the match.

Round 13 had me against Silver Level Pro Euguene Hwang from the US. A very strong player piloting the team U/R deck, we played an incredibly tight match that had him winning Game 1 off a topdecked Shrapnel Blast when he was dead the following turn, and a Game 3 when he killed me while he was at one life. This was the first time I had gone up against the U/R deck, and I’m glad I was able to quickly identify my role and my sideboarded Anafenza, the Foremost pulled their weight helping me race and keep Hangarback Walker in check. Unfortunately I fell just short and lost, putting me to 7-6.

Anafenza the ForemostIn Round 14, a wild Paul Cheon appeared, again playing the team deck in U/R Thopters. Paul was friendly enough, but spent most of the pre-match pleasantries complaining with another Pro about his horrible deck and bad luck. He promptly mulled to 4 on the play in Game 1 (justice) and then swiftly killed me with double Shrapnel Blast! We laughed about it, I told him I was placing a moratorium on complaining for the rest of the match, and we continued on. Game 2 he mulliganed again, and I was able to pick his hand apart with Thoughtseize and he fell apart after that. In Game 3 he mulliganed yet again (which he was complaining about, but mulligans are absolutely a common issue with the deck) and we fought a close one, leaving him dead to my next attack if he couldn’t peel Blast. In true #luckycheon fashion, he slowrolled his draw from the both of us for about two whole minutes, got incredibly excited when he saw a 1R red spell, but it turned out to be Roast, not Blast, and I took the match.

8-6 at this point and locked for Top 75 if I won out, I faced Maximiliano Sanchez and his foiled out R/G Aggro in Round 15. I had some clunky draws, his deck did its job, and I lost convincingly to Elvish Mystic/double Goblin Rabblemaster/Surrak, the Hunt Caller in three games. His deck was definitely built to beat up on all the G/R Devotion, Control, and Abzan strategies running around, but I couldn’t help but imagine how horrible his matchup was against the Red and U/R decks running around. With one round left, I resigned myself to fighting hard for 9-7 to keep me above even on the weekend.

Round 16 had me paired against Platinum Pro and Pro Tour Return to Ravnica winner Stanislav Cifka, piloting the team Red deck. His was slightly different, with Firedrinker Satyr’s maindeck, but he ran me over nonetheless and I died with a million three drops in hand, to finish 8-8 on the weekend.

Applications for Modern

The major players of the weekend were U/R Thopters and Mono Red. Better, more consistent versions of these decks already exist in Modern in the form of Burn and Affinity, but I think we can look at this Pro Tour as an example of what can happen when the metagame is pushed too far in one direction. The top teams correctly realized that decks were slowing down in an attempt to interact and one-up each other. By playing huge creatures to dodge Languish, and expensive three-mana Sultai Charms to hit Gaea's Revenge, the field opened up a weakness to Mono Red that would not have existed had the decks just stuck to their roles. For Modern, just keep in mind during event preparation the baseline, so as not to move too far away from it. I see Grixis Control decks getting more and more grindy in an attempt to beat the mirror, and I just keep coming back to how bad they can be destroyed by a solid Burn or Bogles list. Stay grounded!

Concluding Thoughts on the Pro Tour

While definitely not the result I was hoping for, I am immensely proud and satisfied with my performance on the weekend. While my results were decidedly average, I did rally back from a 1-4 start on Day 1 to finish all 16 rounds at Par on the highest stage possible of competitive Magic. My 3-3 draft record was unexciting but fine, and had I drafted slightly better in both drafts I know I could have 2-1’d the first pod and 3-0’d the second. My 5-5 record in Standard was exactly what I was expecting going in; I knew I would be playing Public Enemy number 1, with no great matchups and game against everything, and every round would be a fight. I played at the top of my game, can confidently say I made no punts (a small miracle, that) and had my share of complicated lines and good decisions. A few of my matches were extremely close and had a couple things gone a different way, a 10-6 or 11-5 record was definitely possible given my deck/matchups/gameplay. Without sounding like I’m excusing my average performance, I think that for my first Pro Tour, with no testing team and limited experience/testing time I did exceptionally well, and while I’m not qualified for Pro Tour Battle for Zendikar I can’t wait to get back on the big stage again to give it another shot.

Thespians StageIn the end, through this trip I learned a few things about Magic, the Pro Tour, myself, and life. The Pro Tour is an incredible stage, where the best players of the game gather to compete for fame and glory, but the reality of the grind is much different than what viewers see within the feature match area. I sat next to and played against many of my favorite Professional players, individuals whose articles I have read and decklists I have studied for years in an attempt to better myself at this game. While my outlook on the weekend was incredibly different to theirs (this being my first Pro Tour) I couldn’t help but notice how jaded many of these individuals who devote so much time to this game have become. There is a certain swagger among the top players in the Pro Players Club, a sense of entitlement that I’m sure can be attributed partially to us, the fans, and partially to themselves. I witnessed Wizards coverage and press shower these individuals with attention and praise, witnessed them muscle their way through crowds like they own the place, heard them joke about their Red Carpet registration line and compare it to flying first class vs. coach, all while avoiding our gazes like we are somehow beneath them. I experienced them belittle opponents (myself included) who beat them by complaining about poor draws, or how bad the “team deck” was, and then walk back to their group to update their scouting sheets with information on everyone else’s decks.

The ability of an individual to make it onto the big stage and succeed by themselves, through sheer grit, determination, and fortitude, is unfortunately impossible. All of my positive experiences at the event were with people slightly above me in terms of experience; those playing in their second or third Pro Tour, guys that tested with small groups of four or five. When asked who I tested with, all of them cringed when I told them I tested primarily alone. It was the company of the fellow grinder, not the gravy train Pro’s, that I found myself enjoying, and as the event progressed I became less and less excited every time I was paired against a “name”. The level of work required to keep up in a quickly changing format like Standard is incredible. Shaun McLaren was able to do it at Pro Tour Born of the Gods, but the format was Modern and he’s superhuman. My advice to anyone recently queued for a PT: “Find a team. Put in the work. Start two weeks before you think you should.”

On stream, I make a bunch of mistakes, and I always get occasional comments from new viewers like:

“This guy sucks.”
“How did he ever get on the PT?”
“PUNT.”

Normally I laugh them off, as they are responding to downright stupid plays I make that blow the game. Under the surface, however, they start to build, whether I notice it consciously or not, and sometimes I find myself questioning my abilities. Shadow of DoubtI’m not sure what my disconnect is between IRL Magic and Magic Online, but I have difficulty reading the interface. I get tunnel-vision and don’t pay attention to the board, the graveyard, life totals, time, whatever. Part of it is because I’m distracted by streaming, but I know that’s not entirely to blame because I make mistakes when playing alone too. The rare times I do get to play paper Magic really pick me up from a low place that I don’t even realize I’m falling into, where I wonder if I actually am good at this game, or did I just get lucky and win a soft RPTQ that got me to a stage where I don’t belong. It’s this low place that leads me to second guess opinions I have about decks/formats/card choices. If I was more confident in my opinions, and didn’t need to seek validation from Pro articles to confirm my findings, I would have jumped on Searing Blood sooner, started testing red more than two days before the PT, and recognized Jeskai Tokens for the trap that it was. I have a long way to go in every possible area of Magic, but I think what I need more than anything is confidence. Cashing my first PT would have got me there I think, but my 8-8 performance was definitely close. When I get back to the big stage, maybe then I’ll feel like I actually belong. Until then, my goal is clear.

For those that haven’t seen it, Corbin Hosler did an incredible piece about me and my first Pro Tour experience here; it would mean a lot to me if you would check it out! As always, if you have any thoughts/opinions/questions, feel free to ask below. I didn’t dive much into my experiences in Vancouver, as my experiences outside the convention hall contain much less gourmet food and Platinum Pro name dropping and much more bus rides and homeless people. I did have a great time in Vancouver, however, and would definitely visit the city again. Just stay away from East Hastings St and the Patricia Hotel!

Thanks for reading,

Trevor Holmes
The_Architect on MTGO
Twitch.tv/Architect_Gaming
Twitter.com/7he4rchitect

Blogatog Delivers Again

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This one definitely made the rounds quickly, but if you haven't heard, Mark Rosewater made a pretty big announcement on his Blogatog about Battle for Zendikar.

Blogatog

Full art lands is a cool announcement. You'll probably find fewer of these left on tables than original Zendikar full arts, but they'll be good things to hoard nonetheless. As for the other announcement, well...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scalding Tarn

I would like to be somebody who bought Tarns for ~$50 at the time of announcement. They can be buylisted now for about that, and you can make a small profit unloading them otherwise, but buying now is ill-advised. Tarn could climb all the way back to $100, but you're not doing yourself any good investing in a card that is already $80 and is all but guaranteed a reprint. It won't be in Battle for Zendikar, but it will happen. If anything, this announcement has me wanting to sell the Tarns that I have and play because I failed to sell into the hype at their previous peak.

Chaz

A lack of an immediate reprint doesn't increase actual demand. People interested in playing Modern don't do so for the opportunity to line up to pay $400 for a set of lands.

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Ryan Overturf

Ryan has been playing Magic since Legions and playing competitively since Lorwyn. While he fancies himself a Legacy specialist, you'll always find him with strong opinions on every constructed format.

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Modern Metagame Breakdown: 7/1 – 8/1

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We don't get a Modern Grand Prix until September; if you were as pumped about summer Modern as I was, GP Oklahoma City can't come soon enough. Thankfully, Modern has continued to evolve in the wake of our June GP gauntlet, and the metagame hasn't looked this open in years. Since our last metagame breakdown covering the 6/1-7/1 period, many top-tier Modern decks held on to their spot including the upstart Grixis Control and Modern staples like Burn, Affinity, Jund, and Twin. This metagame update also sees a few newcomers, including one of Modern's oldest aggro decks surfacing to the top of the format. In the spirit of Harbinger of the Tides-powered Merfolk, let's dive into the metagame changes from the 7/1-8/1 period and see how the format has evolved.

Harbinger of the Tides Art

Data for this article comes from the Nexus Top Decks page and reflects events that took place between 7/1 and 8/1. Whether you are planning on taking down a PPTQ, heading over to a Modern FNM, or simply interested in how the June Grand Prix tournaments and Magic Origins shaped Modern, this article will give you information you need to know about our developing format.

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Tier 1 Decks

You can always count on our metagame breakdowns to start with Modern's tier 1 decks. As defined on our Top Decks page, tier 1 decks represent the most-played and most-common decks in the format. These are decks you are all but guaranteed to see in events and you would be wise to prepare for them in your own testing. Tier 1 decks are not necessarily the "best" or "winningest" decks in the format. These decks have the most profile and consistently appear at top tables throughout the Modern scene, whether as a function of price, popularity, power level, or a number of other factors. The table below shows the current tier 1 contenders in the Modern metagame, with only one noteworthy shift from our 6/1-7/1 article.

Deck nameOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
Jund8.9%7.5%10.8%8.4%
Affinity8.4%9.9%6.5%8.8%
Burn8.1%9.6%6.5%8.3%
Grixis Control5.5%6.1%5.6%4.7%
UR Twin5.3%4.1%6.4%5.4%
Merfolk4.8%5.1%6.5%2.8%
Grixis Twin4.8%3.7%3.6%7%

Say goodbye to RG Tron and hello to the fish. Merfolk has always been one of Modern's most solid tier 2 decks, so it's always nice to see the Lords make their way into tier 1 in the right metagame. The new Origins Merfolk has played a big part in their rise, as has Przemek Knocinski's win at GP Copenhagen before Harbinger even hit the Modern scene. The RG Tron drop represents small metagame shifts since June. The deck was a real contender in the early weeks of the GP season, but as players packed in the Fulminator Mages and Spreading Seas, Tron slid back into tier 2. The table below shows some of these month-to-month changes for all of the tier 1 decks, including Tron's backslide into tier 2.

Deck nameMeta% change
(June to July)
Meta%
(7/1-8/1)
Meta%
(6/1-7/1)
Meta%
(5/1-6/1)
Meta%
(4/1-5/1)
Jund+.1%8.9%8.8%5.4%4.1%
Affinity-.1%8.4%8.5%5.8%7.1%
Burn-.4%8.1%8.5%7.9%9.2%
Grixis Control+.8%5.5%4.7%.8%.6%
UR Twin+.2%5.3%5.1%8.5%9.2%
Grixis Twin-.7%4.8%5.5%3%1.7%
Merfolk+1.5%4.8%3.3%3.1%2.6%

Before we get into the numbers, I want to say a quick word on the data itself. From July 1 through July 31, we saw over 150 paper events across the world. That's about 15%-20% more events than we usually see in a one month period, which reflects both an uptick in format popularity and increased reporting by players and tournament organizers. By contrast, MTGO event coverage has tanked during the same period of time. Although we have recorded enough events during July (just over 30), average event attendance collapsed from its June highs. This is due to a number of factors including the new (and exceptionally controversial) MTGO reward structure, the end of the Modern GP season, the culmination of the Modern Festival, and the buzz around Standard. With crashed event attendance, we have fewer MTGO datapoints to consider, which might skew our numbers away from the "true" MTGO prevalence you might see in your own events.

Turning to the decks themselves, Merfolk is the big winner of our August 1 update, climbing almost two percentage points since the last breakdown and almost doubling its paper share. I've written a few times Harbinger of the Tideson Merfolk's strengths in this current format and the deck's recent rise is a testament to those qualities. Merfolk is linear enough that it doesn't need to care too much about which deck it faces, but also interactive enough that it can float with the weird combos in Modern. Catchall answers like Cursecatcher, Vapor Snag, Spreading Seas, and others are huge in this regard, allowing the Merfolk player to advance its own gameplan while still keeping cheap interaction options available. This is particularly important in a diverse metagame like we see today, where there are seven decks qualifying for tier 1 status and no single deck exceeds 10% of the overall metagame. Harbinger of the Tides has also been a new allstar in Merfolk, with roughly 60% of recent lists running the conditional Man-o'-War en route to their finishes. As I harped on in two Origins articles, Harbinger gives his fishy team yet another catchall answer to a bunch of important Modern opponents: Infect, Twin, Affinity, Amulet Bloom, and others. Merfolk would have enjoyed success even without the Harbinger, but his addition has pushed the deck into a new level of viability. Expect to see lots of the scaly tribe as the summer closes and we get ready for the fall Grand Prix circuit.

Anyone who is surprised by RG Tron's fall from tier 1 didn't understand its rise in the first place. This deck catapulted to early June finishes against a Jund-heavy metagame that was overly-prepared for Karn LiberatedAmulet Bloom. As authors like Ari Lax have discussed in the past, the best cards against Amulet Bloom (e.g. Blood Moon) aren't so hot against RG Tron. With Bloom panic at an all-time high in early June, it's no wonder that Ali Aintrazi and Clair Bigelow piloted RG Tron to such success at the SCG Open in Columbus. Unfortunately for Tron players, once the format caught on to the deck, its fortunes quickly fell. Jund and Grixis decks packed in their Fulminator Mages which, when combined with Kolaghan's Command, represents a nasty threat to Tron's mana development. Merfolk's parallel rise didn't help either: Spreading Seas is a great bullet in this matchup. Couple this with the continued rise of Affinity and Twin decks, along with small declines in Jund and the floundering Collected Company decks, and the context was not right for the Urzatron. This reflects our general understanding of the deck, which is capable of excelling in the right metagame but sometimes struggles in different ones. I expect we'll see RG Tron back on top soon, especially if Jund ever pushes past the 10% metagame mark.

Other tier 1 changes were more subtle. Most decks stayed within less than a percentage point of their 6/1-7/1 position, and the order of decks remains similar. It's notable that the only deck in the entire Twinformat with a 10%+ share of anything is Jund, which occupies 10.8% of the paper metagame. Even combining the tier 1 Twin decks (something Splinter Twin ban proponents love to do for rhetorical effect), the collective Twin share is still less than 11%. This suggests an unusually open metagame, especially when considering the continued presence of Grixis Control at a solid 5.5%.

Diverse formats like this are good for Wizards' marketing efforts and make us feel comfortable about the format, but they can be very unsettling for players looking to optimize a sideboard. With control, combo, midrange, and aggro all represented in tier 1, it's hard to know how to prepare for events. Although I think this is better than a more solved format (e.g. the Brainstorm-saturated Legacy T8s/T16s), it plays into an ongoing complaint some players have about Modern. I prefer this diversity to the alternative. It's rare to see four playstyles so evenly represented in a non-rotating format, and I hope we continue to see this going into September.

Tier 2 Decks

When considering tier 2 decks, it's important to remember these decks aren't necessarily "worse" than tier 1 alternatives. Due to a combination of factors including power, playstyle preferences, cost, metagame context, popularity, etc., these decks just don't see as much play as the tier 1 representatives. I like to think of tier 2 decks as the decks which you can use to win a tournament, but not decks you necessarily should expect or prepare for. If you bring one, depending on your matchups and your metagame, you can certainly succeed. If you are going to a tournament, however, you don't necessarily need to ready yourself to face these decks. The table below shows the tier 2 decks from the 7/1-8/1 period, and although the tier remains relatively open, there was very little movement between this month and our 6/1-7/1 update.

Deck nameOverall
Metagame %
MTGO %Paper %Major Event
Day 2 %
RG Tron4.2%3.8%3.9%4.9%
Abzan3.5%2.1%3.5%5%
Amulet Bloom3.4%2.1%3.6%4.4%
Infect3.4%2.7%3.4%4.1%
Grixis Delver3.2%4.6%2.4%2.5%
Abzan Company2.8%1.8%2.7%3.8%
Temur Twin2.4%1.9%2.9%2.3%
Naya Zoo2.2%.5%1.4%4.8%
Elves2.2%1.4%3.7%1.4%
Grishoalbrand2%.8%2.2%2.8%
Scapeshift1.8%1.6%2.1%1.7%

With the exception of some small percentage shifts, the only changes we see in August relative to early July are the RG Tron and Merfolk swap, along with Ad Nauseam combo falling back into tier 3. Other than these changes, it's business as usual in tier 2 with familiar faces like Scapeshift and Amulet Bloom joined by relative newcomers such as Grishoalbrand and Elves. Note these "newcomers" were present in the previous period, suggesting they have more staying power beyond initial hype and profile.

Looking over tier 2, I am continually struck by the modest (even mediocre) performance of Collected Company decks. Naya Company, Elves, and Abzan Company all show up Anafenza, Kin-Tree Spiritin tier 2, but only make up a combined (or should I say, "collective"?) 7%-8% of the format. For a card that was billed as the green Dig Through Time, this might feel like underperformance. Grixis Control and Grixis Twin enjoyed immense benefits from the FRF and DTK staples, rocketing from virtual nonexistence to the pinnacle of Modern off Kolaghan's Command and Tasigur/Angler. What happened to Company, especially in Elves, a deck that won GP Charlotte and then sort of disappeared in the following months? One problem with Company decks is in the card itself: variance. Birthing Pod was busted precisely because it eliminated variance, tutoring up creatures when needed and altering deckbuilding parameters around it. Company also imposes strict deckbuilding requirements, but the payoff is much lower. You can no longer get what you want when you want it, and although instant-speed has given decks like Zoo a fighting chance in Twin-packed metagames, Company is still no Pod. I do think we'll eventually see these decks get better with time, eventually comprising a bigger metagame share. For now, however, Company decks don't have enough firepower to roll with the format's big boys, especially Grixis decks maindecking Dispel on the backs of their Snapcasters.

Another continued point of curiosity is Abzan. Although the deck is by no means gone, it continues to see lower metagame share than its red-based BGx competitor. This seems odd at first glance, given the siege rhinostrength of Path to Exile against the Tasigurs and Anglers of Grixis decks, the stabilizing power of Siege Rhino in the Jund matchup or against Burn, and the relevance of Lingering Souls against the spot-removal heavy tier 1 decks. One big reason for Abzan's continual mediocrity is Kolaghan's Command. Whether you think the card is as good as many others do (hint: it probably is) or if you think the card is overhyped, you can't deny that other players believe in Command's power. This belief and the profile surrounding the Command are two big reasons Jund gets more play. Of course, Command is by no means the only reason to play Jund. Huntmaster of the Fells is often better than Rhino in some of the grindier matchups, just as Dark Confidant remains the card-advantage engine of choice for anyone looking to drown an opponent in resources. Barring major metagame shifts, it's unlikely we will see Abzan supplant Jund in the near future. Souls, Rhino, and Path are good cards, but Command, Confidant, and Bolt are better, not to mention midgame monsters like Huntmaster, Chandra, Pyromaster, and Olivia Voldaren.

When preparing for Modern events, be mindful of tier 2 decks but don't be afraid of them. Look for overlapping hate which affects multiple decks, not just specific bullets against a few strategies. For instance, a sweeper like Anger of the Gods hits a huge range of decks in both tier 1 and tier 2. Something more narrow like Grafdigger's Cage might help you in a few niche matchups, but you are going to regret committing its sideboard slots when you are slogging through Twin, Jund, and Grixis decks.

Modern Metagame Predictions

As with previous articles, I always like to check back in with my past predictions and see how we did for the month. I see a lot of authors toss out claims in articles and then never revisit them, particularly if those claims fall flat (basically everyone responsible for Narset Transcendent hype). Metagame predictions are tricky and it's good for everyone if we look back at old ones and learn from our past successes and failures. Here's a review of my predictions from the 6/1-7/1 article:

  • Affinity and Burn as the most-played decks? Nope.
    Day's UndoingOn the one hand, Jund is clearly still the most-played deck, even if only by a few fractions of a percent over Affinity and Burn (+.5% and +.8% respectively). On the other hand, it is significant that no other deck was able to surpass either Affinity or Burn, and that Jund wasn't able to surpass it in any significant sense. This doesn't salvage the prediction, which was grounded in Jund falling to both Affinity and Burn and in the (as of yet unrealized) power of Day's Undoing. We have seen Undoing put up numbers in Affinity, as in Michael Evans' second place finish at an SCG IQ in Falls Church, but not in any regular capacity. I still think the card is strong (but not nearly as strong as many predicted), and am looking forward to seeing what it can do in the coming months. For now, however, it wasn't enough to push the tier 1 aggro decks over the tier 1 Jund policeman.
  • collected companyCollected Company stays tier 2? YES!
    I feel bad capitalizing and exclaiming the "YES!" above, because I genuinely like Company decks and what they represent. They are fairer Pod decks and fairer decks period in a format so often categorized by unfair things. Unfortunately, as I discussed above, Company decks haven't found stable footing in Modern, or at least haven't found footing stable enough where they can ascend to tier 1 status. It's interesting that the metagame numbers predicted this last time, something we can learn from in future predictions: if decks can't rise to the top during a GP season, they are unlikely to rise in a month thereafter.
  • "No Changes" in the banlist update? YES!
    Hallelujah. I've said all there is to say on this in three articles already, so let's just continue to be happy about the "No Changes" announcement heard throughout the world (and continue to stick our tongues out at the people who still don't get it). Also, notice that neither Amulet Bloom nor Grishoalbrand have done anything remotely scary from a metagame-wide context since the ban: they remain tier 2 decks with less than 4% of the metagame each.

We might be in between GPs but we definitely aren't in an offseason. There are tons of Modern PPTQs happening every weekend, and new event data is pouring in every day. I expect to see lots of exciting tournament finishes in the next month, although I don't expect them to make too big a difference in the metagame. Even if we only see modest changes, here are the metagame developments I expect to see in our next breakdown:

  • Merfolk will rise to a top four deck
    Master of the Pearl TridentMerfolk currently sits at 4.8% of the overall metagame, with Grixis Twin, UR Twin, and Grixis Control all ahead of it. In a (potentially too) bold prediction for August, I think Merfolk is going to surpass these three decks and sit at the top alongside Jund, Affinity, and Burn. Part of this is the deck's power, which I already discussed earlier in this article: catchall disruption and linear gameplans interact favorably with the Modern metagame. Another part of this is cost. With many decks increasing in price, especially many top-tier decks, Modern players will find themselves looking for cheaper options to compete in the August PPTQs and IQs. Merfolk is a standout in this regard, costing a cool $500 and matching up favorably against many of Modern's best decks. People also really like tribal decks, even if they can't get poor Goblin Piledriver to work, and Merfolk will appeal to a large subset of players. All of these factors should combine to make Merfolk a much bigger force in the month to come.
  • Kiki Chord will become a tier 2 deck
    Kiki JikiSpeaking of Company decks, here's another Birthing Pod ex-patriot who wants to make a mark on Modern. Kiki and "company" have put up some isolated results in the so-called Kiki Chord deck and it's on track to be a contender in August. Jeff Hoogland wrote a primer on the deck here, which you can read for more information on the Chord of Calling-powered successor to the old Kiki Pod of pre-January days. If there's one thing I've learned about Modern players, it's that we love cool new decks and we love cool new uses for old cards. This was the big draw of Abzan Company back in April and I believe we will see a similar draw in Kiki Chord in this upcoming PPTQ month. Not all the Kiki builds actually use Company itself, but the deck style is interesting enough to draw players looking to take something new and exciting to their local Modern scene. It's also proactive and flexible enough to have favorable matchups in a diverse metagame: cards like Voice of Resurgence are brutal against countermagic heavy Grixis strategies.

What was your experience of the Modern metagame in July? Did you see or expect any changes I didn't discuss here? Were there any deck movements you disagreed with or supported? I'm excited to see what the PPTQs over the next month hold for Modern and what you all can do with the newly released metagame data. So head on out there, take down a PPTQ, and put the statistics into action! We'll check back in with the metagame in early September.

No Ban List Modern

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This weekend Mox Boarding House put on a very exciting tournament. A (non-sanctioned) Modern event with no ban list. We talk a lot about maybe getting Jace or Bloodbraid Elf back in Modern, but imagine if we got to play with Skullclamp!

MBH

My initial thought on what the best deck to play for this event would be was that Hypergenesis is the most degenerate thing on the ban list. A few of the guys I talked to said that they'd rather play Affinity with Skullclamp, and that's certainly a very powerful option as well.

Unfortunately, I haven't come across decklists posted by MBH, but I did happen onto a sweet tournament report on Reddit. The writer decided to play what looks like a less egregious banned deck with Chrome Mox, some artifact lands, Sword of the Meek, and some sideboard Mental Misstep in a controlling Tezzeret shell. His list looks sweet!

Banned Tezzeret

creatures

2 Spellskite

spells

3 Thirst for Knowledge

lands

sideboard

While a lot of the banned cards in Modern deserve their spot, I'd like to see Modern make a push towards a higher power level. I think it's somewhat telling that this tournament report featured this controlling deck with its only loss being to D&T, though the data here is very small. I like the idea of power checking power, though we're certainly very far away from just having no Modern ban list.

What would you play at this event?

Insider: MTGO Market Report for August 5th, 2015

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of August 3rd, 2015. The TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

All MTGO set prices this week are taken from Goatbot’s website, and all weekly changes are now calculated relative to Goatbot’s ‘Full Set’ prices from the previous week. All monthly changes are also relative to the previous month prices, taken from Goatbot’s website at that time. Occasionally ‘Full Set’ prices are not available, and so estimated set prices are used instead.

Aug3

On the long-term viability of MTGO, the Organized Play announcement from WoTC at PT Origins means that Regional PTQs are coming to MTGO. This is an interesting development in that WoTC has decided the best way to serve the paper market in this regard is to make Regional PTQs available online. It could also mean that foil Liliana of the Veil promos could be coming to the MTGO economy via these events.

As a personal anecdote, I drove two hours to unceremoniously 0-1 drop at the RPTQ in Montreal earlier this year. In comparison, my first round opponent had driven two days all the way from Nova Scotia, with young children in the car! My opponent is the exact type of player that this change will cater to--making RPTQs available on MTGO will serve players who have to go an extraordinary distance in time or space in order to play in these events. This development will further cement the long-term viability of meaningful Constructed play on MTGO.

The introduction of Play Points and the changes to Daily Events has introduced uncertainty in the MTGO economy about the future of Constructed. Over the long run though, Constructed play on MTGO has always bounced back and with it the price of singles. This time will be no different.

Return to Ravnica Block & M14

Sets of RTR continue to fall, off another 9% in the past week. While M14, GTC and DGM are still redeemable, they saw steep drops with the opening of ORI release event queues and the ongoing shift of player interest away from Modern. The window of redemption on these sets is drawing to a close, but there should be one last burst of buying interest before that happens in November.

Modern-playable cards from these sets are close to being on sale. Voice of Resurgence from DGM is getting closer to a very attractive price level and M14 Mutavault is near its post-rotation floor. Players looking to fill out their playsets should consider these to be at a reasonable price, while speculators should definitely have them on their radar.

Theros Block & M15

JOU is up an astounding 26% this week on the back of the Mono-Red and the U/R Artifacts decks that showed up at PT Origins. Temple of Epiphany has more than doubled in the past week, and Eidolon of the Great Revel is back over 20 tix. The blue-red scry land will have a long way to drop after rotation, but the red two-drop will find a floor somewhere in the 5-12 tix range due to being a staple of Modern and Legacy burn decks.

On the other hand, THS is down significantly in the past week. This is the perfect time to be on the lookout for cheap mythic rares from this set. Although Standard-playable cards will typically bottom after rotating out of Standard, junk mythic rares tend to reach attractive price levels in the months prior to rotation.

Currently both Hythonia the Cruel and Underworld Cerberus are below 0.3 tix and should both be considered a buy. Most of the mythic rares from redeemable large sets eventually end up being higher than 1 tix after they rotate out of Standard. There will be cards that don't move higher than 1 tix though, so be sure to buy a basket of the junk mythic rares. Buying more than 10 playsets of a given card will also require some patience when exiting the trade as bots will adjust their buy prices as you sell your copies.

Tarkir Block & Magic Origins

The ORI release events continue and the gap between a digital set and the sum of TCG Low prices is a massive $111 after accounting for the redemption fee of $25. This is attributed to the relatively weak showing of ORI cards at the Pro Tour. Although Abbot of Keral Keep and Hangarback Walker were the breakout cards this weekend, ORI is an interesting set that will take longer to understand and to integrate into all of the constructed formats.

On top of not making a huge dent in Standard, there are other factors holding the price of this set lower than a typical large set release. The reprinting of the opposing-colour pain lands reduces the value of the set. Combined with the summer lull in Standard and the uncertainty around the introduction of Play Points on MTGO, all of these factors  have resulted in depressed prices relative to other new sets. Last year, M15 bottomed at 90 tix or so closer to the end of August, and ORI is currently at that mark. With excellent long-term potential, the time to be stocking up on ORI is almost at hand.

The three Tarkir block sets have been stable in price in the past week, which is a good sign after the recent dip. Although ORI should be the set to focus on in the next month, the buying window on these sets is still slightly open. If there's a pet card that you believe in as a spec, look to accumulate that card over the next month before available supply starts to dry up.

Modern

In the wake of ORI release events, Modern prices are, on average, still declining this week. However, and as it started last week, several Modern staples are reaching a floor and rebounding this week as well. Therefore, this week again, speculators should find very good buying opportunity on proven Modern staples.

From a 6-Tix high reached at the end of June, Shatterstorm of M10 has dropped to 1 Tix and might have bottomed at that price. Orzhov Pontiff has rebounded from 1.2 Tix and is now in the neighborhood of 2 Tix. This three-drop creature was at a top of about 10 Tix when U/R Cruise/Pyromancer decks were dominating Modern last Fall and Birthing Pod decks were running this card in response.

It won't reach 10 Tix again anytime soon, but Guildpact is an old enough set that only a small increase in demand would be enough to push the pontiff into the 4-5 Tix range, similar to what happened just prior to the release of MM2.

Other Modern staples to keep an eye on as they are reaching a tipping point include Shadow of Doubt, Dryad Arbor, Fauna Shaman and Path to Exile. One way to detect more of these Modern positions that have lost a significant chunk of their value over the past few days is to look at the Modern Staples price fluctuations and sort them by weekly percentage loss. By looking at the biggest losers, speculators can identify good buying opportunities such as these.

The week before the release of Battle for Zendikar is likely to be a good selling window for many of the Modern speculations started between the release of MM2 and now. This is what makes current Modern specs very attractive, since they have the potential to double in price in barely two to three months.

Legacy & Vintage

Legacy and Vintage prices have been less sensitive than Modern ones to current seasonal fluctuations. The Total Legacy Format price has dipped a little bit, mostly due to some of the cards used to calculate the Legacy index also being played in Modern.

Some Legacy staples, including Force of Will, Cabal Therapy and Stoneforge Mystic, have lost value over these past few weeks. Mystic actually dropped to an 18-month low and represents a good buying target with the November Legacy MOCS in mind. Other staples such as Infernal Tutor and Show and Tell are slightly on the rise, while several other Legacy staples, such as Rishadan Port, Misdirection and the dual lands, remain flat.

Another week has past and another record low was reached by Black Lotus. The legendary artifact could be found for under 85 Tix on Goatbots and Mtgotraders earlier this week. A P9 playset can now be acquired for less than 300 Tix on MTGO. Although Vintage is getting more and more expensive in paper Magic, the same format has never been cheaper on MTGO.

Pauper

Pauper positions were only moderately affected by ORI release events. Prices keep cycling up and down creating constant buying and selling opportunities for attentive speculators.

Familiar and Delver decks have been the most played archetypes for the past several weeks now. Sunscape Familiar is inching up from its low point reached earlier in July whereas Snap seems to have reached a plateau at around 3 Tix.

Innocent Blood is not really part of any Pauper deck these days, not even Mono-Black Devotion decks. As a consequence its price has dipped to 0.2 Tix this past weekend, a record low. Although the black sorcery doesn’t have any real short-term upside right now, speculators willing to wait several months for a rebound might consider it a good opportunity.

Another black card represents a better opportunity, namely Chittering Rats. The Rats have shown a quite regular fluctuating pattern over the last two years, oscillating between 0.2 and 1.5 Tix. This card reached the 0.2 Tix floor again yesterday.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

Standard

Modern

Shatterstorm
Path to Exile

Legacy

Stoneforge Mystic

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

None

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