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Insider: Snap Judgments and a New Project

Posted on March 5, 2015January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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Spoiler season! Wait, didn’t we just do this?

Honestly, it feels like we did. Fate Reforged was not that long ago at all. But who cares? New cards! (I’ll run my retrospective set review next week and then give my prerelease primer for Dragons after that.

Before I get to spoilers, I want to announce a small project I’m starting, one I’ll report on from time to time in this column.

You may have heard of Pucatrade, a quickly-growing platform that a ton of people use to trade cards online, and a platform that our own Derek Madlem wrote about a few months ago. However, unlike many of you smart readers, I never made the jump in. My reasoning was that I have a retail store where I sell most cards, so trading for particular things isn’t really a thing a I do a lot of. Why bother?

Things have changed, and I’m ready to take the plunge.

Nothing’s really changed on my end. I still sell almost all of my cards at the store, and I still don’t need to play the Pucatrade market all that much. But I do have so many cards coming in right now that I can’t really stock them all at the store, especially the stuff that’s just $1-2. Shipping those off to a buylist doesn’t do me a ton, and the “dollar rare box” is full, with several thousands of cards waiting their turn in the box as well. So I’ve decided that rather than have so many of these cards sitting uselessly in boxes, I’m going to Puca them.

The end goal? Full-art Mutavaults. They’re beautiful, aren’t they? These cost a tidy 73,000 puca points apiece and I’ll be listing stuff that’s 1-500 points, but hey, we’ve all got to start somewhere, right? And, in the end, if I’ve turned thousands of essentially bulk rares into some beautiful Merfolk, I think that qualifies as “trading up.”

Moving on.

Spoilers!

Narset, Transcendent

This card is obviously super powerful, but I think it’s actually more difficult to evaluate in terms of the context of Standard. Is it better than Siege Rhino at four mana? I’m not sure what the odds of drawing a card with the +1 will be, but I imagine in the right deck it will be near 50%, which seems solid. The -2 is very, very good, and not just in Standard.

But the biggest selling point to me is the six loyalty. That’s a lot on a four-mana planeswalker that will be staring you down with seven loyalty on turn four.

Surprise, it’s starting at $50 on TCGPlayer. I really don’t think there’s much to say here, other than this will be very good in Standard and Commander. Until we see more movement in the price and more of the set, it’s both hard to say where it will settle or when it will be worth picking up. But I think the hype is warranted here. In an Esper deck (or any blue-white control deck), you can play this on turn four and likely have it survive an attack, then go wild with it on your next turn when you cast your five-mana wrath of choice.

Dragonlord Silumgar

$8-10 here, but I see this as another Pearl Lake Ancient or Aetherling, albeit one with much more appeal outside Standard. This is unlikely to ever be a four-of in a Standard deck, so I think the upside is limited.

That said, it’s way better in non-Standard formats than those other two, namely in Commander where stealing planeswalkers is a huge game. The problem is, I don’t see any point moving into this at current prices, but this is definitely one to keep an eye on. Long-term, foils will likely be a good play, because in Commander if this resolves you get to have a ton of fun.

Dragon Tempest

I get that this seems like nothing, and in all honesty it’s going to be a bulk rare before it’s all said and done.

But at that point I love picking these up. It may not be Crucible of Fire, but it’s going to behave similarly in price, and that’s good news for the long term. And who knows, maybe a Standard dragon deck will be a thing?

Ojutai’s Command

Unpronounceable Command is fun, but Cryptic Command it is not. Still, it’s very powerful. I don’t know if returning a Snapcaster and drawing a card in Modern is good enough, but I could see a few copies sneaking into Modern here and there. In Standard this does seem like a house, countering Rhino and drawing a card or gaining some clutch life.

Still, it’s hard to imagine this seeing more play than Dig Through Time did at its height. That card also saw tons of Modern play but could only hold a $10-15 pricetag for a month before falling back to Earth. I think that means Unpronounceable Command is destined to come down from the $9-10 it’s at now. But with this and Narset forming the basis of blue-white decks over the next 18 months, I can already tell I’m going to love both of these as pre-rotation pickups.

More Dargons

Mostly bulk, honestly. Some of them may see some fringe play, but as Jason put it on this week’s Brainstorm Brewery, EDH can only prop up prices for the best 20-30 Dragons, and none of these really fit the bill.

Still, I can already see this set being gold a few years from now when you find all these previously-bulk dragons in peoples’ collections and see they’re all worth a few bucks.

Sidisi, Undead Vizier

Exploit is a cool mechanic, and much better than megamorph (seriously, that’s all I can think of when I see it, loved that series). And as far as exploit cards worth taking in, this is at the top of the list when it comes to Commander. I love foils of this in the long term.

Dragonlord's Servant

This is not bulk.

I’ll repeat it, because you’re going to find them in bulk all over the place, and while it may be bulk for a while it’s not going to stay that way forever (see: Dragonspeaker Shaman).

This is not bulk.

That’s really what’s caught my eye so far. I’m sure by the time you see this there will be some earth-shattering spoiler that’s come out since I wrote this, but that’s just the way it goes.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Moving Forward in Formats

Posted on March 5, 2015January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

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Cool Story Bro

This past Saturday, I traversed the Ohio highways in order to compete in the Columbus TCG Player 5k. Players may see 5k and not be impressed with the prize structure enough to make the journey, but the money is only part of the reason to attend TCG Player events like this. The real reason I was motivated to get up at 6 am to make this drive was for the perks of making Top 8.

All of the players that top-eight this event obtain enough points to play in the Max Point Championship at the end of the year. In addition, you are qualified for the new Invitational that will take place this summer. Qualifying for two amazing tournaments in addition to the $5000 prize payout makes these events a priority for me in my Magic schedule. This was evident in the attendance as well as we had 253 players crammed into the Columbus Convention Center for the tournament.

Lately I’ve been playing exclusively with Abzan Aggro and having great success along the way, so I saw no reason to alter my course. After some quick changes, my deck was ready to go. I didn’t want to alter the list too heavily but I did want to fit the full four Hero's Downfall into the main deck because of how important it was to my success at the Pre-PTQ that I won.

After playing the deck with all the Downfalls, I will say that my decision was absolutely correct. There weren’t many times that I didn’t have an answer to what my opponent was doing and that felt great from a very aggressive deck. Many wins come from playing one or two creatures and then backing those up with removal. You can also use some of your removal (Valorous Stance) as a way to protect your threats, which makes this strategy particularly potent.

With my TCG Player points, I got myself two byes. Then I picked up a quick win round three as I curved one, two, three and then two removal spells in game one and Anafenza, the Foremost plus removal for every threat my Abzan Midrange opponent cast.

After that, the tournament went downhill quickly though. In round three, I was paired up against Temur Ascendancy Combo, but it mostly played out like G/R Devotion. None of that really mattered because I mulliganed three times in two games and did not put up much of a fight before he defeated me. He assembled the sick combo of Temur Sabertooth plus Nylea's Disciple in game two, so I would have had to draw very well to defeat him that game anyway.

Round five was an epic adventure through the mirror. Game one was incredible and although I lost, it was a blast. After all, who wouldn’t mind losing to the combination of Feat of Resistance and Become Immense throughout the course of game one against Abzan Aggro? It was awesome and bold of my opponent to be playing these sweet cards in his deck. Those aren’t the things I want to be doing, but they are still sweet.

Game two, I applied too much pressure too quickly and he was unable to keep up. Game three was amazing and I would have liked to see how it ended, but we ran out of time. That’s right, in the Abzan Aggro mirror that usually takes seven minutes per game, ended in a draw.

Round six was exactly what you expect from a Commander deck. Wait. We were playing Standard, so yeah his deck was out there, but it was also a ton of fun to play against. You never knew what he would play next. Some of the cards were typical Sultai Control cards, but then we had the Aetherspouts, Frontier Siege, and to top off the match, Villainous Wealth!

These are cards that you cannot play around and I had to sideboard creatively in the match to even have a chance. His threats were so diverse and even if I found a way around his eclectic removal suit, I still had to deal with the sweet combo of Aetherspouts into Villainous Wealth. This was the only time I wished I had access to Thoughtseize.

So going into round seven, my attitude was not the best. I had just fallen to 3-2-1, which is awful and definitely put me out of contention for Top 8. My friend was still in the running though, so I decided to push onward. I thought about my article from last week too and used my own words to motivate myself.

Rounds seven, eight, and nine my deck started functioning the way I know it can and I took all three matches in two games. I played against Abzan Midrange, U/B Control, and Abzan Aggro to finish out the event. I’m confident in my ability to win all of these matchups and my results show that confidence is justified.

So, at the end of the day, I ended with a record of 6-3-1, 25th place, 10 TCG points, and a $50 consolation prize to help pay for gas. The result was not everything I hoped for, but if things had gone slightly different in the beginning of the day, I believe I could have top-eighted with this list. We will see what happens with Dragons of Tarkir, but as for now, I’m loving my deck where I get to attack with the awesome Warden of the First Tree.

Sieges

Over the course of the TCG event, I heard stories from the floor about all five, you heard me, all five sieges seeing play at the event.

This struck me as quite odd, but the more I thought about it and the more I discussed it with my friends, the more it started making sense. Yes these enchantments are a little clunky, but they are like planeswalkers in a sense because they generate a constant advantage if allowed to be in play for multiple turns. Let’s investigate all of them to see what we’re really working with.

[cardimage cardname='Outpost Siege']

I’ll admit that when I saw this card, I thought it was a bad version of Chandra, Pyromaster. I think we all did. After playing against it a couple times, I thought that it was good enough that we should have a split of both red cards so we could have them in play at the same time.

Now that the format has been evolving through multiple big tournaments, I think we can all agree that the siege is much better than Chandra. The enchantment has been seeing tons of play and it should probably get more spots from other archetypes other than R/W Aggro too. They pair well together because drawing extra cards is never a bad thing.

The second ability comes up often as well. The best way to fight tokens is with cheap sweepers like Drown in Sorrow. If you have a red siege on dragons, you can force your opponent to take tons of damage if they want to kill your guys. Often you can put them in a checkmate position where they can’t block or kill any of your guys lest they die. The red siege is amazing and it will continue to see more and more play. If you have red mana, add this to your deck. That’s how good it is.

[cardimage cardname='Frontier Siege']

The other siege that we know is decent is Frontier Siege. Most often we are seeing the mana mode being used because it generates such a huge advantage for decks that want to reach the mid and late game more quickly. Utilizing this card allows us to legitimately cast Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or Garruk, Apex Predator reliably.

The second mode almost never gets chosen but I have seen it used in combination with Hornet Queen to Plague Wind the opponent. If you want lots of mana as quickly as possible, this is the route you need to go.

[cardimage cardname='Citadel Siege']

Now we’re getting into cards that have not been seen in play at competitive level events. The two modes on Citadel Siege seem at odds with each other. One mode controls the game by tapping down one of your opponent’s creatures. The other mode buffs one creature per turn with two +1/+1 counters.

I thought about trying this card out in an aggressive deck like R/W Aggro or Abzan Aggro, but this is not what I want to be doing on four mana. It’s possible that line of thinking is incorrect and this enchantment is more like Ajani, Caller of the Pride with the upside that you can tap your opponent’s creature instead of making yours bigger. This incremental advantage adds up quickly as well as allows you to break through your opponent’s bigger creatures.

[cardimage cardname='Monastery Siege']

In my Top 10 article, I rated this card highly but we have not seen it much in the metagame. I thought it would primarily be used to fuel the graveyard decks for delve shenanigans, but it did not work out in practice. I do believe it should be seeing play though, but in an archetype that needs protecting rather than fueling.

If we choose dragons and make our opponent pay two more mana each time they want to interact with us, we may be able to assemble a hero to defeat the villain. U/W Heroic seems well poised to use this card. You can still choose the loot mode if you are behind in order to find the pieces you are looking for too.

[cardimage cardname='Palace Siege']

The worse of the sieges was even spotted in play this weekend. It was seen in play from a U/B Control deck that was playing against someone with red cards. The ability to drain two life each turn adds a huge buffer to the control player’s life total. That’s a hard advantage to overcome. Abzan Midrange or Control could use this card also, because it could be used the same way or it could start regrowing its threats against other control decks.

Even the bad sieges seem playable and we need to reevaluate our stance on them. Yes they are enchantments, but that doesn’t automatically make them bad to play in your deck. All five have unique, versatile applications. So, whatever you’re playing, try out some sieges and see what you think. From a financial perspective, I would start getting these as throw-ins on your trades immediately. I could see these all going up some in value. They are great for casual players as well, so start stocking up.

If we are heading to a metagame with even more enchantments than we already have, my argument for maindeck Reclamation Sage gets stronger as well. I’ve loved this card in the format and don’t see myself taking it out until rotation. There are lots of other options for getting rid of enchantments as well, just make sure you are prepared for this type of permanent in your 75.

Tiny Leaders like Cube Draft decks

The hype has finally swallowed me up and dragged me into the new format. At the TCG event I saw some of my friends playing Tiny Leaders. That led myself and my other friends to start talking about the format.

Once I realize how sick Dark Confidant and Inquisition of Kozilek are I started thinking about what I could play alongside them, I quickly dove into building my first decklist throughout the course of the event. I decided on Jund because everyone is trying to do broken things in the format and Jund seems like a great color combination to stop them from accomplishing their gameplan.

This is not your average casual format. Decks in this format, like Elves, can win on turn two or three easily and the rest are playing Legacy staples as well as having pseudo extra cards in hand thanks to your general being castable multiple times.

One of the main motivating factors for me starting to play this format was one realization. Tiny Leaders decks are extremely similar to Cube Draft Decks. If you like Cube Draft, you will probably like Tiny Leaders. It’s more casual competitive than Commander. In fact, most of my deck was taken straight from my cube.

The converted mana cost constraint is also extremely interesting. Sure there are a lot of Legacy staples that you will play against, but there are lots of other cards that are only good because this format exists.

This format is really catching on because it’s another way to use your Legacy-playable cards more often. Danny Brown put together a complete list of all the Commanders for this format. If you have not seen that list yet, here is the link.

The format is fun, so if you have the cards, put a deck together and start playing.

Until next time,
Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Dragons of Tarkir Spoilers – 3/4/15

Posted on March 4, 2015March 4, 2015 by Jason Alt

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Narset Transcendent

I launched right into this. No preamble. No need. This card is bonkers.

I saw a friend (hyperbolically) say this was better than Jace the Mind Sculptor. While that is silly, can I suggest that this is perhaps a better Tamiyo, the Moon Sage? Tamiyo was from a third set, it was a control planeswalker and it had a smilar brutal feel to it when you got that emblem. Maybe you want to compare it to Jace, Architect of Thought. Either way, I expect similar price trajectories. I don't think the white splash matters. Control cards are control cards.

This is sold out at $50 on Star City. Could this be a $50 card? I don't think so. But if you want these to play with, it may take a while for this to fall below that. Being in a third set will buoy the price somewhat. A lack of a second great planeswalker or obvious impetus to spend an extra $50 and just buy a whole box isn't in evidence. This price has a lot of factors pushing it up and not a lot of reason for it to fall quickly. I think the booster lottery is your best bet.

I know that a lot of you think reddit is for nerds, but this discussion is worth reading.

Foe-Razer Regent

This is a solid EDH card, maybe. You need other fight enablers to really benefit, but a 7 mana 5/7 is obviously nutty in Limited. Still, I don't know if this is even good enough for EDH unless you're all-in on fighting and using a lot of enablers. I am not a huge fan. I think this is a bulk rare like most of the dragons in the block. EDH can support the best 20-25 dragons of all time, and this is not on that list.

Dragonlord's Servant

If you see these lying on a table, pick them up and sock them away. This strikes me as a card that could be some silly $5-$10 as a foil even out of the gate. Get these. This is likely going to be worth more than a lot of the rares in the set.

Dragonlord Kolaghan

Flying, Haste

Other creatures you control have haste.

Whenever an opponent casts a creature or planeswalker spell with the same name as a card in their graveyard, that player loses 10 life.

Hey guys, we made a Dragon Legend that has an ability that's useless in EDH! Wasn't that good thinking?

This has potential but for casuals, mostly. This won't be a general and likely isn't good enough to crack the roster of a Dragons list, and having a dead ability in EDH relegates this to Standard and casual. I don't think this is that bad in Standard, but I don't think the format is slow enough for it. Casuals are likely to be overwhelmed with all of the dragons in the set. I think this card has a lot of downside. Not sure what they were thinking by making it useless in the best format for dragons, but not everything has to go in EDH decks, and this likely wouldn't even if it weren't precluded on its face. We'll see where this goes, but I bet it goes down.

One Quick Hit

Posted on March 4, 2015 by Danny Brown

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Namely, Jon Finkel's hair, on ESPN2, in 1998:

There's not much to say. Just look at it.

This has been One Quick Hit with Danny Brown.

Insider: Financing Your Standard Addiction

Posted on March 4, 2015January 17, 2022 by Ryan Overturf

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When you compare individual card prices, Standard appears to be much cheaper than Modern and Legacy. When you factor in the amount of upkeep the format requires and the fact that rotation kills card prices, Standard ends up requiring much steeper investments.

At least when you buy a Volcanic Island, you can literally forget about it for years and it will generally trend upward in value. The same cannot be said for Desecration Demon:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Volcanic Island

There was an error retrieving a chart for Desecration Demon

The volatility of the Standard format kept me from investing too much in previous years, but with events happening so frequently these days, and my desire to track down a deck every time I want to play it diminishing, I have come to appreciate the value of having a large Standard collection.

Most financially focused articles here at QuietSpeculation are geared towards using your money to make the most of your collection, or even making more money. My focus today is a look at how to play Standard while bearing the least burden of Magic's most expensive format.

With constantly shifting metagames, having access to multiple decks can be paramount to Standard success. That said, there are some definite pitfalls to avoid when investing in Standard.

Be Consistent in What You Choose Not to Own

As we got deep into Theros Standard, it became apparent that the green decks would nearly all be playing Courser of Kruphix.

I missed the window to obtain Coursers at a reasonable price--that is, by the time I could purchase them, they would only ever go down in value. I had access to everything for multiple non-Courser decks, so it was wise for me just to avoid Courser altogether. In a format with any wiggle room at all, not owning the card is fine.

Not owning Courser freed me to not invest in cards that really only go in Courser decks.

For example, it was likely that Temple of Malady would almost always be seen in Courser decks, so I would only ever buy into Temple of Malady if I saw it as something I could flip for profit later.

A huge card that not owning Courser allowed me to avoid was Nissa, Worldwaker. Nissa was around $40 when we saw Goblin Rabblemaster start climbing to an absurd $20 for a regular rare, and there was some concern that Nissa might have a floor as high as $30 during her tenure in Standard.

With the buy-in being so steep and the demand for the card being so unclear, I felt good about not buying into Nissa, which ultimately ended up trending pretty consistently downwards from its early price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nissa, Worldwaker

Be Cautious in Determining Which Prices are Reasonable and Which are Hype Driven

With the sheer volume of events happening these days, it's quite common that there will be a weekend event near you the same weekend that a new Standard set becomes legal.

When Fate Reforged launched, I was liking Jeskai and Boros in Standard, and a card that might have revolutionized these decks was Monastery Mentor. That said, the card's preorder price was ludicrous, and there was no way that I could justify spending $30 on a card that I was unsure of.

By not buying Mentors immediately, I cost myself a short window of playing with the build of a deck I would have preferred. But I did save myself some money on a card that still hasn't proven itself entirely.

It was just so unlikely that it would ever be more than $30. And unless I was convinced that a Mentor deck was convincingly the best deck in Standard, then waiting on the card was just right.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Monastery Mentor

Right after Fate Reforged launched, I wrote this piece looking at early prices and determining which seemed reasonable. The only card I think mis-evaluated was Ugin, but even still, there was never a great price to buy it at.

Ultimately, the takeaway from that piece was that Whisperwood Elemental was under-priced, and by correctly identifying what is priced incorrectly early, you can invest in those cards and use the profits to buy cards that don't ever have a window to be under-priced.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Whisperwood Elemental

Keep a Close Eye on What You Own, and Move Things Early

As soon as you're comfortable in saying that you won't be playing a card in Standard, you should move off of it unless you otherwise believe that it will see a boom in price.

This is relatively common knowledge at QS, and Derek Madlem wrote a thorough piece on selling out of Theros here.

Of course, sometimes you'll want to sell a lot earlier than when rotation looms. Sometimes you'll see pretty outrageous spikes in the early weeks of a new set.

A great recent example of this was Master of Waves. Basically, everybody who wasn't selling the weekend of Pro Tour: Theros into $15-20 a card was on the wrong side of the table, as the card has generally trended downward since.

Even though Blue Devotion was the best deck that weekend, and always a strong choice from that point, it's just that important to recognize that prices immediately driven by Pro Tour results are often fleeting.

Know When You're Beat

A card I saw as underpriced in Ravnica/Theros Standard was Rakdos's Return. It was around $5 when Theros launched and was easily good enough for Standard. As a mythic rare, it seemed like a solid pickup. Well, despite seeing more and more play later in the format, there was never much demand for the card.

I now have a small stack of them at a price quite a bit lower than $5. I should've moved off of these long ago.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Rakdos's Return

There's a point where things really only ever get worse. After Born of the Gods launched, Rakdos's Return only fell in price I should have sold out and mitigated my losses.

Always Buy the Expensive Reprints

Real-estate is a commonly highlighted element of good MTG specs. Lands are sometimes only okay, as we've seen with Theros Temples, but high-end reprints will always be avenues to make money when invested in near their reprint-floor.

Modern Masters is sort of its own beast, but I'm sure we are all aware of the long-term effect that we've seen on the price of Tarmogoyf and Cryptic Command.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tarmogoyf

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cryptic Command

Magic 2014 gave us a chance to double/triple up on cheap Mutavaults, Theros gave us a crack at cheap Thoughtseizes, and now Khans of Tarkir is giving us the opportunity to make some serious money on fetchlands.

It's hard to find something closer to a sure thing than when cards are still seeing demand in other formats while hitting a Standard floor.

These cards all had historic precedents of being very powerful, and they not only continue to be powerful in older formats, but are clear picks to do well in Standard.

Keep a Close Eye on Planeswalkers

Planeswalkers are the most powerful card type in Magic. There have been degenerate cards in the past in the form of instants and sorceries, but a well-designed planeswalker will be more powerful than a well-designed sorcery in the modern era.

Planeswalkers will often take a back seat in Standard as the format approaches rotation, as either format diversity or the format converging on 1-3 best strategies diminishes the appeal of particular cards.

Around the release of Journey Into Nyx you could find Xenagos, God of Revels and Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver were in the $5-6 range. These cards were constructed playable and stellar investments at that time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver

Now and in the coming months is when we should be paying attention to Khans of Tarkir's planeswalkers. Sorin, Solemn Visitor is pretty widely played at this point in time and is a little too steep to buy into currently, but I'm taking note of Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

Sarkhan has been trending downward for some time, and is approaching a floor. Picking this card up in the $6-8 range is basically guaranteed money. The reason that I'm such a believer in Sarkhan is that Ben Stark's Boros deck from GP Memphis is among the most powerful decks in Standard, and it maintains a lot of great elements after rotation.

Ben Stark Boros

spells

4 Seeker of the Way

4 Soulfire Grand Master

4 Goblin Rabblemaster

4 Outpost Siege

4 Chained to the Rocks

4 Hordeling Outburst

4 Wild Slash

4 Stoke the Flames

3 Lightning Strike

1 Valorous Stance

lands

4 Battlefield Forge

4 Temple of Triumph

3 Evolving Wilds

9 Mountain

4 Plains

sideboard

2 Valorous Stance

3 Stormbreath Dragon

2 Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker

2 Arc Lightning

3 Erase

3 Mastery of the Unseen

The deck will definitely miss Chained to the Rocks, Goblin Rabblemaster and Stoke the Flames, but Outpost Siege is the truth, and this could easily become a Monastery Mentor deck. I fully expect to see a similar deck post-rotation packing some number of Sarkhans, which only gets better with Hero's Downfall leaving the format.

Sorin is also trending downward, but this has been happening much more slowly. I don't know that Sorin will have a window to fall into the range of being a great spec, but in the interest of maintaining a robust Standard collection, picking up a set when it hits its floor in the short-term will be a wise move.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sorin, Solemn Visitor

Focus on Mythics, Pay Less Mind to Regular Rares

As we all know, it's tough to make money on regular rares in Standard. Sometimes you get a chance, and this usually comes up when something is in the bulk to $1 range and starts seeing serious play. The aforementioned Outpost Siege is a great example.

That said, most regular rares are just money sinks. My approach to owning regular rares is just to buy any that I need in the short term right before I need them. There's no point in owning Savage Knuckleblade if I don't think it will ever take off in price. If I ever decide to play Temur, I can buy them. But, until then, unless I have reason to believe that the price will shoot up, I choose to ignore the card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Savage Knuckleblade

Mythics are clearly more lucrative cards to target, and some of this is conveyed in the planeswalker section above. Mythics walk the same line with me only wanting to buy them if I'm going to need them or if I expect them to increase in value. The difference being that when mythic specs hit, they hit harder, are more expensive and difficult to track down in the short term if you need to play them.

Additionally, due to my low requirements for stock to play with, I don't mind as much when I buy into a mythic rare and the price only slightly increases. Buying a $10 card that goes up to $12 is much easier to convert into things that I need than buying a $1 card that increases to a $3 card.

With Fate Reforged, Whisperwood Elemental was a great example of a card to speculate aggressively on. It was better than a $5 card and a mythic rare. Currently, Warden of the First Tree is a card I would identify as being solid to pick up a set or two of. It's not a spectacular card, but it's a sub-$5 mythic that is likely to increase in value by a couple bucks while being unlikely to decrease much from its current position.

If the card turns out to be great with rotation, you'll likely have a decent window to pick up more copies aggressively. And, minimally, you'll have your own set to play with.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Warden of the First Tree

I have my eyes on Soulfire Grand Master and Monastery Mentor right now, but I don't see them maintaining their current prices long term, and I don't need them short term. It's hard to imagine they won't be role-players post-rotation, but I suspect there will be a better window to buy them in the future.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soulfire Grand Master

Standard is an expensive format with a lot of upkeep required. Hopefully the above tips help you approach the format in a way that helps to alleviate the burden of cost.

If you have any great tips about your financial approaches to Standard, I would love to hear about them in the comments. Let me know!

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Cheonmaggedon

Posted on March 4, 2015March 3, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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Magic is a lot more than a strategy game. For many, it's a lifestyle. There's a culture, a history, and some great stories. Sometimes we get to see some of these great stories unfold live and on camera. One such event that many of us remember is the now famous Bonfire of the Damned heard 'round the world.

Jason Ford punting his deck after losing in the Top 4 of an SCG Team Event is another piece of video gold, which you can view here.

You've also probably seen the animated gif of judge Jeph Foster laughing hysterically as Lauren Nolen Notion Thiefs Justin Uppal's Jace activation.

One that you may not have seen yet, and my new favorite Magic-related moment, is of Paul Cheon casting a free Armageddon. If you're not sure what I mean, then you're in for a treat. I can't find a gif of this event, but a here's a link to the video.

Have any other special moments from Magic history that I've failed to include? I would love to see them, so be sure to post them in the comments!

Insider: MTGO Market Report for March 4th, 2015

Posted on March 4, 2015January 17, 2022 by Matthew Lewis

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Welcome to the MTGO Market Report as compiled by Sylvain Lehoux and Matthew Lewis. The report is loosely broken down into two perspectives. A broader perspective will be written by Matthew and will focus on recent trends in set prices, taking into account how paper prices and MTGO prices interact. Sylvain will take a closer look at particular opportunities based on various factors such as (but not limited to) set releases, flashback drafts and banned/restricted announcements.

There will be some overlap between the two sections. As always, speculators should take into account their own budget, risk tolerance and current portfolio before taking on any recommended positions.

Redemption

Below are the total set prices for all redeemable sets on MTGO. All prices are current as of March 2^nd, 2015. The MTGO prices reflect the set sell price scraped from the Supernova Bots website while the TCG Low and TCG Mid prices are the sum of each set’s individual card prices on TCG Player, either the low price or the mid-price respectively.

MTGO prices have moved in different directions this past week, with renewed price decreases on KTK and FRF, while sets not currently being drafted have shown varying price strength. Paper prices have also shown some volatility this week. With DTK previews set to begin, expect the volatility to continue as spoilers shake up the market.

Broadly speaking, it is the correct time to accumulate tix in advance of DTK release events, when the inevitable liquidity crunch drives up the value of tix relative to everything else. Accumulating tix is the best play at the moment. Once demand for tix ramps up during DTK events, prices for singles will fall and there will inevitably be some good buying opportunities.

Be prepared in advance though. Sell now when tix are still valued in a normal way. Short-term positions should be liquidated, and some trimming of longer-term positions is also warranted.

Return to Ravnica Block and M14

The outlook for both RTR and GTC remains positive. There was a slight dip in TCG Low prices, but compared to TCG Mid, this is a more volatile indicator. TCG Mid prices have been advancing about 1% a week.

Of note, one particular card from RTR made a small splash this past weekend. Jace, Architect of Thought showed up as a singleton in Gerard Fabiano’s winning Modern deck at the SCG Open in Baltimore and so it has seen a price bump as a result. With RTR being the last set with the lower redemption fee of $5, it currently ranks as the redeemable set with the most value, relative to paper.

M14 has finally turned the corner, as it went from weekly price drops to a solid price increase. This set is still ‘good value’ but it will need continued price increases in paper to drive further price increases in the short term.

Theros Block and M15

The start of DTK spoilers has revealed that allied colours will be a strong theme for this last set from the plane of Tarkir. This will inevitably drive some interest in the allied-colour gods from BNG and other allied-colour cards. In the short term, any price increases driven by speculative behavior should be sold into. BNG has very low long-term potential as a redeemable set, so if you are holding mythic rares from this set, it’s time to start selling.

A recent buy recommendation from THS was Xenagos, the Reveler. The red-green planeswalker has seen a recent bump in price due to the resurgence of red-green strategies in Standard, but they don’t appear to be Tier 1 as of yet. It’s possible that the allied theme of DTK pushes red-green into a more dominant position in Standard. Pay attention to the DTK spoilers and consider the potential impact they might have on this card and the red-green ramp strategy. The new command cycle, if it features a competitive red-green one, could be a big boon to this spec.

A second recent recommendation was Keranos, God of Storms from JOU. This card is still in relatively short supply and has seen a price above 10 tix in recent weeks. With Twin strategies firmly in the Tier 1 of Modern decks, expect this card to appreciate in price leading up to the Modern MOCS preliminaries and championships. However, it is now less than two weeks from the MOCs events, so it’s time to start unwinding this position.

Khans of Tarkir and Fate Reforged

KTK continues to plumb new lows as drafters keep opening the online product. On top of this, there is the threat of the allied fetch lands reappearing in DTK (perhaps with updated art). An event like that would immediately reduce the value of KTK and also reduce the long-term prospects for the set.

However, the playable mythics from this set are probably at or near their lows. Buying a basket of the most played mythics is a very defensible long-term speculative strategy. If you only have a few tix to speculate with, wait until the DTK release events which will probably herald the absolute bottom for most cards from KTK.

FRF will continue to be opened in large volume over the coming weeks, so be on the look-out for mythic rares from this set that are value priced. One in particular that demands some attention is Warden of the First Tree. This card is now below 2 tix, and if it gets closer to 1 tix, it could be a very interesting spec. There are also what appear to be a couple of staple uncommons in Wild Slash and Valorous Stance. These will both be worth buying just prior to the release of Magic Origins in the summer.

Modern

Another mixed results week for Modern. While some cards are clearly on the decline, others keep climbing. Nonetheless the selling window is slowly closing on Modern positions. Losing positions or positions on the decline for several days should probably be sold, as chances of a rebound are limited. It is also advisable to sell profitable positions, as the chance of future gains is reduced as we are approaching the end of the Modern season, and the threat of reprints looms in MM2.

Lower priced rares and uncommons may have room to recover. There’s always the chance that a low priced card sees a day in the sun, so it’s not usually worthwhile to completely liquidate bulk or low-priced cards that one has bought. However, when it comes to Modern staples (thus higher priced), whether they showed disappointing drops in price or decent price gains, the next two weeks is the time to sell.

Vintage and Legacy

Prices of staples in these three minor formats online continue their slow recovery after the changes in the Daily Events schedule. For once in a long time the top 10 winners of the week for Vintage as seen on Mtggoldfish.com include five pieces of Power and five dual lands.

Although on a slight upward trend, staples in these two formats are still fairly low and still represent buying opportunities for players and speculators. Hopefully these formats will keep gathering a bigger and more sustainable player base thanks to the new structure of the Daily Events schedule.

Longer term, keep in mind the Legacy MOCS at the end of the 2015. If there are no VMA flashback drafts in the interim, the prices of things like blue dual lands could potentially see steady gains over that time. If you are a novice speculator, it’s best to stick to Standard and Modern positions, but those with deeper pockets might consider Tundra and Underground Sea as buys.

Pauper

Pauper prices have taken off and many of them are on their way to match their previous record high. Similarly to Vintage and Legacy, only time will tell if players embrace Pauper as an alternative competitive constructed format. Sustainability and steady player demand is required to maintain high prices once the initial speculative bump has passed.

Targeted Speculative Buying Opportunities

None this week.

Targeted Speculative Selling Opportunities

Standard

Keranos, God of Storms

Modern

Aether Vial
Arcbound Ravager
Blood Moon
Elspeth, Knight-Errant
Fulminator Mage
Engineered Explosives
Glimmervoid
Living End
Path to Exile
Magus of the Moon
Olivia Voldaren
Sword of Light and Shadow
Thundermaw Hellkite
Misty Rainforest

The reason for these cards to be here is simple; specs that have seen gains have lower upside and specs that have seen losses have a low chance to rebound in the short term. Selling out into tix, regardless of gains or losses, is what we recommend with these positions.

The Legacy Cube Just Keeps Getting Worse and Worse

Posted on March 3, 2015March 3, 2015 by Danny Brown

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I've been basically pretty supportive of the Legacy Cube. I didn't necessarily like the removal of the Swords of X & Y, but I understood the reason behind the change. Some of the additions were pretty sweet indeed.

Yesterday, MTGOnline.com published a piece indicating new updates to the Legacy Cube. In short, we'll just say these updates leave much to be desired. To get a little more into it:

Umezawa's Jitte and Grim Monolith were removed. This makes sense to the extent that swords and signets are not included in the list, and these two cards are as good or better than those. But as far as someone who likes to play with awesome cards, this is a feel-bad. I like seeing these cards in my pack when I'm drafting, and I don't feel like they're absolutely impossible to beat (difficult, to be sure, but not impossible). Having these cards in the format didn't make it feel degenerate or unfair. They didn't ruin my experience, but still, they're being cut for power level. In Cube.

There are better changes: the self-mill reanimation theme was just bad, and they're getting rid of Mulch, Grisly Salvange, and similar cards that never really got drafted. Did any of you ever see this deck run by anyone? I didn't.

But then Buehler moved on to hurt one of my favorite weapons: mono red. These are some the cards that have been taken out of the format: Fireblast, Firedrinker Satyr, Searing Blaze, Searing Blood, Rakdos Cackler, Figure of Destiny, Shrine of Burning Rage, and Sulfuric Vortex. So basically, many of the coolest reasons to play mono-red. They took out Satyr but left in Jackal Pup? I realize the point is to weaken a deck that was a little too strong, but this seems like a little much. They removed some of red's absolute best cards and replaced them with crap.

All of that pales in comparison to what they did to black. Black was indisputably pretty bad. Honestly, it was really, really bad. Instead of making it better, though, they made it worse, by including a vampire theme. Now we get great* cards like Vampire Interloper. I just can't get on board with Buehler's contention that this is more interesting in the format than Diregraf Ghoul, and really, so many of these additions seem bad. Vampire Nocturnus is just plain unexciting, but there are even worse inclusions: Necropolis Regent?! Ascendant Evincar?! (Interrobangs are intended and oh so appropriate here.)

*Not actually great

I hope I'm wrong about black being worse, because the last thing we need is for the Legacy Cube to become even more unbalanced. These changes were ostensibly tested and found to be reasonable. But damn. If you thought black was unexciting before, just wait.

All in all, while there are plenty of changes that make a whole lot of sense, they're also removing a good number of cards that should not be removed from cubes. This is especially true given some of the truly awful replacements.

Cards Removed from Legacy Cube

Savannah Lions

Lifebane Zombie

Phyrexian Obliterator

Fireblast

Firedrinker Satyr

Inferno Titan

Searing Blaze

Searing Blood

Sulfuric Vortex

Awakening Zone

Plow Under

Figure of Destiny

Rakdos Cackler

Grim Monolith

Shrine of Burning Rage

Umezawa's Jitte

Wasteland

Those are cards that need to be heavily justified to be removed from any cube list. Making it worse, besides new cards like Monastery Mentor and Crux of Fate, the cards being added are downright questionable. There's very little exciting here, and there's a few things that seem impossible to justify in what we would hope would be a cube made up cards that are actually good.

WTF Cards Being Added to Legacy Cube

Dissipate

Anowon, the Ruin Sage

Ascendant Evincar

Bloodlord of Vasgoth

Captivating Vampire

Dark Imposter

Malakir Bloodwitch

Sangromancer

Vampire Interloper

Vampire Nocturnus

Bloodcrazed Neonate

Chandra Nalaar

Form of the Dragon

Rakish Heir

Fertile Ground

Nature's Lore

Scapeshift

Utopia Sprawl

Voyaging Satyr

Stromkirk Captain

Blade of the Bloodchief

Chromatic Lantern

Elixir of Immortality

Some of those deserve more emphasis than others, but seriously, some of these cards weren't even good in their actual Limited formats, much less in Cube. Some of these additions are downright insulting to those of us who view Cube as a format that should be continually increasing in power, not decreasing.

We're losing Savannah Lions and getting Steppe Lynx. We're losing Lifebane Zombie and getting freaking Dark Imposter in its place, to support some benign vampire theme that doesn't even appear to be good. We're losing Inferno Titan to Bogardan Hellkite, Plow Under (a premium disruption card for mono-green decks) to Scapeshift (why? Do they really think Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle will be a thing in a 40-card format? That's pure craziness), and Figure of Destiny to Assemble the Legion. Form of the Dragon will never be cast by anyone, WOTC! What are you doing?! These changes are among the worst I've seen since Cube came to MTGO. If development on the Legacy Cube is just going to be mailed in like this, the playerbase is going to lose its interest in playing it. As we power down the Legacy Cube, it becomes closer and closer to a Limited format, and that is not why people like or play the format.

I've been seriously ready for Cube to makes its reappearance on MTGO, but all my excitement over the announced March 14 return has been completely deflated by these updates. Here's the fundamental problem with what WOTC has done: they've decided to power down certain decks to even out the metagame. What would have been better, you ask? How about powering up the other decks so they could compete? Nobody wants to play with worse cards, and though we'll never actually get this information, my guess would be this will be least played (and thus least profitable) Cube iteration since the formats's introduction to Magic Online. At least I hope that's the case. If updates continue heading in the "make cards worse" direction, I don't know how much longer I will remain an MTGO Cube Addict™. Cube is the only thing that gets me to sign in to my MTGO account. It's bad that this announcement hasn't gotten me excited to log on.

What do you think? Am I way off base or are these changes just ridiculous? Sound off below.

Dragons of Tarkir Spoilers – 3/3/15

Posted on March 3, 2015March 4, 2015 by Jason Alt

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We got dumped on overnight, so let's get to it.

Silumgar's Assassin

Silumgar's Assassin
1B
Creature - Human Assassin
Creatures with power greater than Silumgar's Assassin's power can't block it.

Megamorph 2B (You may cast this card face down as a 2/2 creature for 3. Turn it face up at any time for its megamorph cost and put a +1/+1 counter on it.)

When Silumgar's Assassin is turned face up, destroy target creature with power 3 or less an opponent controls.

6 mana is a lot to pay for killing a creature with power three or less, but getting a 3/2 afterward isn't terrible. Realistically, though, this likely never cracks the roster in constructed. This will be a great limited card, but no duh, it's rare.

Radiant Purge

Every time I see a card like this I get really excited. Then I remember back to the last block and how much play a card like Renounce the Guilds got relative to its hype. This is better than Renounce the Guilds, especially since we have to kill gods and Chromanticores and Siege Rhinos for a while. Is this maindeckable? It could be. I expect this to be $3-$5 if it's as good as everyone thinks it is. It's splashable, also, which is good news for control decks. This could end up being a white Doom Blade with upside or it could end up another Renounce the Guilds. Bet accordingly.

Thunderbreak Regent

Creature - Dragon
Flying

Whenever a dragon you control becomes the target of a spell or ability your opponent controls, Thunderbreak Regent deals 3 damage to that player.

This is a sweet card. Does a constructed deck want this, though? A 4/4 flier for 4 is very appropriately-costed and the punisher mechanic can give you some additional reach even if they kill it before it attacks. You may not even need other dragons for this to be good. But what deck wants this? I could see this getting there, but this has a lot of competition for the slots it wants to go in and it's competing with mythics. We'll see. There are so many dragons in this block, just being a dragon isn't enough anymore. A card really has to distinguish itself and I'm not sure this does.

Sunscorch Regent

Now THIS I am OK with. This does a very good impression of an angel, and maybe even a playable one. This has a cool form of reverse Prowess that I am liking. Could this see play in a slow, white-based control deck? I would say yes, but there is another dragon we need to discuss that is better in that shell so I am inclined to say this will be overshadowed. Cool for EDH, though. If Taurean Mauler is good in EDH, this is even better! I could see this worth a few bucks as a result, though it may take some time to get there.

Pristine Skywise

This is the one I meant. 6 mana is expensive, but a UW control deck should be able to handle that. Historically, angels with this ability were finishers in control decks. You saved your mana to save this. Any cantrip, burn spell or counterspell means this can play defense as well as offense and is tough as nails to kill. This isn't as obvious a control finisher as was Aetherling, and we need to look at Aetherling's price trajectory to remind us that being an obvious control finisher doesn't mean diddly for non-mythics anymore. This could be even better than Prognostic Sphinx and worth even less. EDH appeal may buoy its price a bit, but I am not betting money on it. I really, really like this as a playable card, but not as a buyable one, necessarily. SCG sold out at $0.49 but if they restock above like $1.50 I am out completely.

Harbinger of the Hunt

This seems like it might be miserable to play against, but it's so mana-hungry that his ability may only be good against fringey token strategies. 3 toughness gives me pause, being a non-mythic gives me pause and liking about 30 dragons better gives me pause. Still, dragons are at least collectible, and having 3 abilities means it has 3 chances to really impact play. I am less bullish about him than I am Pristine Skywise, but he has potential.

Boltwing Marauder

This comes at an awkward spot in the mana curve for RB decks. Still, tokens coming into play all trigger him and could give a token or dragon or some other creature a big boost. Hordeling Outburst gives you a Ball Lightning's worth of extra damage and can even boost Boltwing itself. Is this the card RB decks need? Maybe, maybe not. There is potential, but I worry about a card that requires you to play creatures AFTER your 5 drop dragon to get the most of his abilities. Still, a 5/4 flier is a clock. We'll have to see how this plays out, but I don't have high hopes for the non-mythics, especially with last set's non-mythic dragons for reference.

Necromaster Dragon

This doesn't even feel like a part of the cycle it's in. It's closer to Dromar than it is Boltwing. The difficulty in hitting someone with a 5 mana 4/4 doesn't feel appropriately-compensated by his ability. Milling someone two at a time takes a lot longer than the 5 hits that straight plowing into them takes. It might as well give them a poison counter, too. You're just as likely to cut them to a good card as you are to mill it and with dredge running around why help them out? Also, this does the opposite of scale correctly for EDH. You tick off everyone at the table with a small amount of milling but only get a single 2/2 zombie no matter how many players you mill? This card is confusing and I don't like it.

Arashin Sovereign

Eww. WG dragons don't have to be bad - Dromoka is a pretty sweet dragon. Dromoka also plummeted from $1.50 to $0.75 over the past 2 months. Expect this to do less.

Ojutai's Command

DID SOMEBODY SAY COMMAND?!?!?!!!!!1

Also, you'll never unsee the guy taking a group photo with a selfie stick. "Say 'Cheese!'"

Cheese is right. This card does it all, and it does it in Jeskai where you want to play non-creature spells. Spells like this one. This initially seemed to everyone like it is a great card to have backing up a Pristine Skywise, for example. Mana-hungry, yes, but this has 4 modes, and picking two is rad.

Will every tribe get a command? I am not sure, but this is likely to get played the most because it counters a spell and draws a card. However, countering a creature spell is a low priority for a color with wraths, so any resemblance this bears to Cryptic Command is exaggerated. If this countered a non-creature, initial excitement is likely warranted. As it is, if you don't compare it to Cryptic Command and look at it as a way to deal with Stoke the Flames and other nuisance cards and a way to trigger prowess, this could hover around $5 +/- a few bucks.

Shaman of Forgotten Ways

It's been so long since Biorhythm has been banned in EDH, the way has been forgotten.

This isn't Biorhythm. This is less than a fifth as good. This will not be banned. This is not bannable. Honestly, if you're playing EDH and you have 8 power worth of creatures, you probably are either going to win with a Craterhoof or you have enough elves to win with Helix Pinnacle. I think this is fun and cheeky in EDH and it could be fun to try and win with this, especially if one of your opponents is playing Voltron and this will put them at either 1 or 0. I think this is more cute than good, it's way too slow for a non-EDH format and it's likely to be overrated by people who can't not see Biorhythm. This is not a total dud in limited, though, as it ramps considerably. This may replace Somberwald Sage in one or two of my decks and this certainly goes in a deck that has Genesis Wave capabilities or which can generate a lot of tokens like Rhys or Nath. All in all, I expect initial overreactions to make the price be too high at first. Trade these off of angry spikes at the prerelease if you want to play with them, don't pay the $8 SCG wants for these.

Finding a Ride to a Regional PTQ

Posted on March 3, 2015March 3, 2015 by Ryan Overturf

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One of the complaints that I've heard about the new PTQ structure is that traveling to a Regional PTQ might suck if your friends don't also qualify. I'm here to offer a bold solution to this problem.

Make more friends.

If you want to play high-level Magic, you're going to find yourself meeting new people and wanting to go places that your best friends aren't interested in going. Or, if you actually qualify for the Pro Tour, places that you'll want to go with other people preparing for that event. People that you may meet strictly because of such a tournament.

Several years ago there was a tournament circuit called the Midwest Masters Series. The Midwest doesn't always see as much action as the coasts, and this tournament circuit was implemented to provide $5k tournaments in places that tended to get such tournaments less frequently. Top 8 competitors at these $5ks were then invited to a championship tournament at Gen Con.

I played in one such tournament during Jund Standard and I Top 8'd along with my carmate Jens Erickson, who ultimately won the event. After the final swiss round Jens and I grabbed some food with Matthias Hunt and Forrest Ryan, who had also just Top 8'd. Jens and I didn't know Matthias or Forrest especially well at the time, but we made plans to travel to Gen Con together, and I've traveled to many places with them at various points after this trip. In fact, Matthias and Forrest were both among the group that I would later stay with when I qualified for the Pro Tour in Nagoya.

Shortly after my return from the Pro Tour I was contemplating quitting Magic and decided to put things in fates hands by letting the results of an SCG IQ determine what I should do about the game. I ended up splitting the finals without losing a match on the day and locking up an invite to my first Invitational. Once again, I found myself in a situation where I would need to travel to an unfamiliar place without the company of any of my close friends. I looked into people from Minnesota who had qualified and saw that one Mark Hinsz who I had recognized from MN PTQs had Top 8'd an Open, so I sent him a message on Facebook about his travel plans. I ended up staying with a large group of Minnesotans in Charlotte, most of whom I previously had very few interactions with, among them being Mike Hawthorne whom I had met at the IQ and who I now Cube with weekly.

These first few events were a little tough for me to manage, but now I'm substantially more established in the Minnesota community and many more people know me and are willing to travel with me. The same is not necessarily true of your average PPTQ winner, and I have two major pieces of advice to anybody looking for travel mates for an RPTQ.

Be Overly Respectful in Your Approach

The people who you end up traveling with are doing you a favor. Be friendly, send them a message introducing yourself and inquire as to whether their travel plans can accommodate you. It's unreasonable to expect people to accommodate you, and be grateful if they do. You might have to put feelers out for several cars before you find a ride, but being cordial in your approach is really the best way to minimize the amount of effort you have to put into finding a ride.

For Minnesotan PPTQers Matthias Hunt did an awesome job of creating a Facebook group and inviting everybody who won a PPTQ as they won. The group serves as a message board for finding rides and also just for general networking. I don't know if such a group exists for other places, but if they don't and you're looking for travel mates then this is a very easy and effective way to get the ball rolling.

Give People a Reason to Travel with You

If people have no idea who you are, you're at a disadvantage in the travel department. People look for people who are fun and/or great at the game to have in their car, though the former is almost universally more important. Just because you believe you're great at the game isn't a reason for people to want to travel with you. Whether you have an enjoyable temperament and whether you share what you know with others is going to matter a lot more to potential travel companions.

Joining a travel group and just posting "I need a ride." isn't likely to get you anywhere. Everybody needs a ride, and there are a lot of people qualified. What makes you special? Do you have a rich uncle that can host a car full of Magic players near the RPTQ or perhaps some hotel rewards that you're willing to cash in for a room? Even something as simple as having a dependable vehicle and offering to drive and looking for people to split gas and hotel with will get you somewhere.

You need to offer more than just your need, because everybody who wins a PPTQ has that same need. If all you do is say that you need a ride it looks like you're treating other travelers as a means to an end. It turns out that people don't like being treated that way, and when you treat people like this there is a very low chance that they will go out of their way to accommodate you.

This all ultimately ends up being sub-sections of the general rule to just be a polite and respectable person. If you carry yourself well, people will like you and want to be around you, and you'll have a much easier time getting where you're going.

Insider: Marcel Hates Tiny Leaders, but I Don’t

Posted on March 3, 2015January 17, 2022 by Danny Brown

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Stop irking Marcel, folks.

Short of that, stop speculating on cards just because of Tiny Leaders. Yes, the format is blowing up, but we don't know anything about its future. We don't know if it will be around in six weeks, much less a year from now.

Then again, if this is the new Commander, we don't want to give up the valuable opportunities for profit. A dilemma.

The Types of Cards Worth Buying

Here's where I think any Tiny Leaders speculation is best placed:

Legacy staples,
...that aren't legal in Modern.

That's pretty much it. Legacy staples have an established format to back up their values--even if Tiny Leaders ends up being just a flash in the pan, these cards won't crash overnight. By buying cards that aren't legal in Modern, we avoid getting blown out by a Modern Masters reprint, or worse, a normal booster expansion reprint.

Here's some examples of a couple cards that fit our criteria:

Stoneforge Mystic: Recently pushing past $30, this card is one of the most powerful white cards printed ~~in years~~ ever. As it's banned in Modern, we won't be seeing it MM15, and I really don't expect it to be reprinted in Standard at basically any point. A Duel Deck printing could destroy it financially, but Wizards has thus far resisted printing cards quite that expensive in these products. The buy-in is high, but if Tiny Leaders is the next big thing, so will be this card's price.

True-Name Nemesis: This is less than $20. Wizards may have doubled the number of Mind Seizes printed during the latter part of the product's shelf life, but that's well in the past now, and this should start climbing with or without the help of Tiny Leaders. The card has proven itself in Legacy play already and is a rare printed only in a preconstructed deck. It will go up over time, and seriously, could you see WOTC ever printing this in Standard? There's no way.

I like these two a lot, because they'r'e merely related to Tiny Leaders. They're not speculation born of the format.

What About Cards in Modern?

Buying cards for Tiny Leaders that could be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015 is risky. In particular, I don't like buying Dark Confidant or Vendilion Clique. More than just a potential reprint, though, these cards have climbed higher than the amount of play they are currently seeing seems to warrant. Even a small influx of supply could bring the price down further than we might otherwise think.

Young Pyromancer is more intriguing to me, as it has demonstrated its power from Vintage to Modern and has never really had a significant price jump. It was printed in an underselling core set, and could easily be a $10 uncommon before long. The biggest risk is that a reprint, especially at uncommon, would destroy any upside the card had. I think there's a lot of potential here, but going too deep is ill-advised.

There are a few powerhouses in Standard that will be good in this format, but now is not the time to pick them up. That said, when rotation hits this fall, if Tiny Leaders is still a thing, Brimaz, King of Oreskos and Goblin Rabblemaster should be fine pickups. Keep a close eye for the floor on these two cards. (Monastery Mentor goes in this category, too, but its rotation is further off.)

On Foils

I don't play foils myself, and I admit my understanding of the foil market is not as expert as other QS writers. Only once in my QS career have I recommended buying a foil (Hornet Queen at between $4 and $5) and that's not going to change today.

What interests me about foils, of course, are the huge multipliers, but I'm looking at the non-foils with the most intrigue. Shu Yun, the Silent Tempest and Alesha, Who Smiles at Death, are sitting at around $.50 and a $1 respectively. Their foils, though, are around ten times as valuable. It's too early in the life cycle of the Tiny Leaders format to really make a call here, but a ten-times multiplier seems excessive.

What's important about these two cards is that they are the only commanders in the format who allow for these color combinations. If someone is a huge fan of Mardu or Jeskai, these are their only options. For these reasons, I really like Shu Yun and Alesha as throw-in targets for trades. Try to pick them up after drafts if you notice anyone playing them. The opportunity cost here is very low, and the upside could be a triple up or better.

Tiny Leaders' Niche in the Community

As a player, I'm excited about Tiny Leaders. I love playing powerful cards from throughout Magic's history in a competitive fashion. But much as Legacy sounds awesome, opportunities to play are limited and I'm really too cheap to shell out for a deck I'll barely ever get to use. Modern's format is too ever-changing for me to go deep.

Cube can provide the ability to play powerful cards from throughout Magic's history, but you need a decent-sized group, and people the cube owner can trust, at that. Still, the singleton nature of Cube means more cards can be represented and the format will be more varied. Commander offers a Constructed option in a singleton format with almost any card available, but the higher life totals and multiplayer games don't offer that competitive thrill.

That's where Tiny Leaders comes in. It's another singleton format, which is huge, because singleton formats appreciate new card printings so much more. Modern white weenie decks didn't care much about the printing of Mardu Woe-Reaper, but Cube owners were thrilled to get another aggressive white one-drop.

Despite being a singleton format, deck construction and games play more out like Legacy, which means the format can give a competitive outlet for players looking for that. And the fact that it's a constructed format means one can show up with a deck and play without having to gather a trusted group for cubing.

Tiny Leaders fills a niche, and I hope it does end up being A Real Thing™. As a finance community, let's try to not drive up prices so far that the format fails before it can even get off the ground. Thanks, guys and girls.

Insider: [MTGO] Retrospective Evaluation of the Timing of Modern Specs

Posted on March 3, 2015January 17, 2022 by Sylvain Lehoux

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We often consider that selling into the hype is great move if not the best move to do. Almost two months ago, the B&R list announcement was expected to induce big changes in the Modern environment. Two dominant archetypes got hammered and at least a dozen different decks were assumed to have a spot in this fresh new Modern format.

In the wake of the 19th of January, close to a hundred Modern-playable cards got bought up in few days in a speculative spree. To name a few, Dark Confidant, Liliana of the Veil, Splinter Twin and Vengevine had a lot of hope put on their shoulders.The incoming Pro Tour Fate Reforged was going to decide tops and flops of the Modern winds of change.

This chain of events was the near-perfect storm for speculators. Prices of a lot of Modern cards were already low, either because they were oppressed by Pod and U/R Delver decks or because of a seasonal low, and were therefore good speculative targets. The B&R list announcement made all non-U/R Delver and non-Pod cards instantly go up by 20 to 50%.

In my personal case I had already started to stock up on Modern positions in November-December in anticipation of Pro Tour Fate Reforged, and the B&R list announcement simply made me buy additional positions or reinforce some--expectations of high returns were really high.

However, buying at a good price and in the right window is only half of the job. As of today, I have sold most of the major Modern positions I had bet on for this "Modern season" (January to mid-March). If the overall result is comfortably positive, especially since I was holding several of these positions for only two or three months, not all positions were profitable.

Today I want to discuss all of these positions and their result. It's not always easy to sell at the perfect time--selling too early while the trend is still upward or selling too late because a card never caught up are common dilemma every speculator faces sooner or later. Is selling everything into the Pro Tour hype really good? How far was I to optimal selling prices? Was it a good idea to cut my losses so early? These are some of the questions I tried to answer by retrospectively analyzing the results of my specs.

Outcome of My Modern Specs

Let's start right off with the Modern specs I was on. The list below contains speculations that were made specifically for this Modern season with the goal to be terminated mid-march at the latest. The idea was to take advantage of two major events that were supposed to boost Modern demand--Pro Tour Fate Reforged followed by a Modern MOCS season on MTGO. Return to Ravnica block and M14 positions that I bought with redemption in mind are not listed here. Sphinx's Revelation is the only exception as I hadn't bought it last summer but only more recently after the B&R list announcement.

This list also only contains specs that represented 0.5% or more of my bankroll. I didn't take the specs I had only bought a few copies of so the data presented and discussed here are the most relevant for my bankroll.

In accordance with the Pro Tour results and my personal feelings about the evolution of these specs, I sold almost all of these cards between the end of the Pro Tour and this past weekend. As I mentioned, for the vast majority of these cards I think that the best window to sell them was between February and March, after a period of known high demand for Modern cards and before MMA2015 spoilers potentially ruin the party.

Another point I should mention is that because of changes of activity in my day job I'll have to spend less time on my MTGO speculations. Therefore I wanted to sell as much as possible of my Modern specs now so that I don't have to keep track of them in the coming six months and with an uncertain future as to their prices.

Finally there are four cards I haven't sold yet. Bonfire of the Damned, Restoration Angel and Vexing Devil are three specs that haven't benefited from this Modern season and that are not threatened by a reprint in Modern Masters 2015. For these reasons I felt comfortable keeping them even if it means keeping them for several months if needed. Sundering Titan is the only regular spec I'm waiting on as I feel slight additional gains are possible.

For all the other specs here are my selling prices and percentages gains/losses

Of 45 completed specs, 11 (24.5%) ended negative and 34 (75.5%) positive. This numbers are similar to those I obtained with the specs involved in my Nine Months of Portfolio Management Bankroll. The average percentage gain per position is of +33.2%, a very decent number considering many of these specs were kept for a few months only.

Now let dig a little bit deeper with these data and look at them in the light of the price evolution before and after Pro Tour Fate Reforged.

Retrospective Analysis

The Pro Tour Hype

Looking at the price trends now I was wondering how many of my specs got hyped by the B&R list announcement and the following Pro Tour but didn't really deliver. I'm looking at cards that were low at the beginning of January, increased in price and peaked at the very beginning of February and finally lost ground once the Pro Tour passed. Good examples of this include Dark Confidant, Pyromancer Ascension and Living End. The price didn't always drop back for all of these cards to where it was before (Fulminator Mage for example) but the highest price was clearly around the Pro Tour.

With these parameters, I counted 20 cards that followed that pattern, quite a lot in deed. I was able to sell some early enough and with acceptable profits, but I kept others way too long, causing me some losses. It is easy to say it now, but selling all of these during the weekend of the Pro Tour would have been the best play.

Not surprisingly, the vast majority of these cards didn't perform well at the Pro Tour. As expected, selling the cards that didn't meet the expectation players/speculators had for them is the overall best move.

Better After the Pro Tour

19 cards had their price ramped up to the Pro Tour and were actually higher in the following weeks. Some of these 19 cards only had a small increase in price though.

The reason of their success? Speculators may not have see them as obvious as other specs. Goblin Guide and Eidolon of the Great Revel with Burn, Blood Moon, Dismember and Leyline of Sanctity as disruption cards of choice in any Modern environment, or Primeval Titan and Wilt-Leaf Liege as strong contenders in the current metagame are cards that may been under the radar of several speculators.

The key to these positions, as for pretty much any Modern positions, is to acquire them when they hit a low in their cycle. Then, if they are favored by a Pro Tour or any other Modern event or season, you know you may have a trend to ride here. The fact that some speculators or players may have missed them didn't make their price artificially inflated before the Pro Tour. Primeval Titan didn't jump to 35 or 40 Tix after the B&R list changes, it kept its organic growth from a its 20 Tix floor it was on for months. Disappointing at the Pro Tour would have had the dramatic effect we saw on hyped cards anyway.

Sower of Temptation is good recent example to illustrate that. This quite unnoticed faerie gained some traction mid-January from its three-months floor around 2.5 Tix and is now back to its previous high around 8 Tix. I was/am expecting the same trend with Sundering Titan, but if it doesn't happen I won't lose much since the card was not hyped at all.

And For Some, Nothing Happened

These positions were low compared to their previous record high, and were therefore good targets, but remained mostly flat or slowly kept losing value. They were never really incorporated into a Modern deck or the demand was not strong enough to see price increases. Aether Vial, Ajani Vengeant and Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker are in this category.

There's not much to do about these positions. Depending on your buying price and on how long you kept them before selling you will either lose some Tix or make slim profits on these ones. To me, they look like the inevitable casualties of speculations. They are fundamentally different from the hyped cards (for which I have lost Tix too) as they never really have a good opportunity to be sold with decent profit.

Lessons to Learn

Modern speculations are bound to repeat themselves again and again, next season or next Pro Tour. In the light of the diverse fortunes of my specs I see room for improvements.

First thing with cyclical Modern positions--buying when they hit a low. This is always true and always a good option. I would however put on hold the buying machine as long as too many cards from MMA2015 remain unknown. The current Modern season comes to an end and prices start to cycle down once again, but this time around holding your guns is highly recommended. The buying spree should resume next summer.

Fueled by changes from B&R list or not, consider selling any cards that are particularly hyped and would be a miss during a Pro Tour or any major Modern event. Even a small miss, such as Fulminator Mage or Liliana of the Veil that were in several decks but not in the "new" or wining decks this year, is enough to have their price at the highest during the Pro Tour and not after.

Finally, if you are holding positions that haven't made much noise approaching a major event but are seeing play, hold on to them for a few more weeks, as more gains are likely to come.

Thank you for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

Insider: Work Your Core

Posted on March 3, 2015January 17, 2022 by Jason Alt

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Greetings, Matriculators!

I wanted to talk about something that I think everyone is aware of but the consequences of which are nonetheless worth discussing.

Core Sets Are Going Away

While that is going to have all sorts of implications, we don't have to get into that here. I won't say I don't care because that is kind of a flippant and irresponsible attitude for someone who should be guiding his readers through the financial implications of a future without core sets...

Screw it. I don't care. I won't preclude getting into that some day soon, but I have a very specific thing I want to discuss and I won't be sidetracked. The block structure is changing, old mechanics will be harder to bring back, new players lost an easy-to-follow entree into Limited and Constructed and we don't need to discuss that today. No, today I want to discuss something everyone has always known but maybe not thought about consciously.

It's Going to be Hard to Reprint Certain Cards

Like, really hard. So far Wizards has done a very good job of coming up with unobtrusive ways to get more copies of cards into the hands of players without entirely wrecking the value of said cards. That's great. I hope they keep it up. Still, as good as they are, there are a few cards that are going to be very tricky to reprint without doing something blatant like "FTV: Sorry these cards were pricey" and I don't see that being all that likely.

I want to discuss several cards that are going to be tough to reprint unobtrusively and discuss how that fact adds upside to their already substantial value. I introduced this concept a bit in a previous article so you can probably already guess what my first card is going to be.

Leyline of Sanctity

Seriously, how do you reprint this card? Its strongest implications are in Modern where this stuffs everything from Inquisition of Kozilek to Lightning Bolt and lots of goofy stuff like Glimpse the Unthinkable. This card does work. The work it does demands fair compensation and in the current market, that compensation appears to be $30 a copy with no signs of going down.

Can this be in Modern Masters 2015? Eeehhhhhh. Yes? Could it? Surely. It is eligible to be in the set after all. However, Modern Masters isn't an FTV. Cards in the set have to work in the context of a limited environment and it's likely that Leyline would be a dead rare in limited, something they will want to avoid.

This is a real problem that severely limits where it could be reprinted. It was fine in M11 because you could just pass it and core sets have to have a few "bad" rares (a bad rare is a rare card that is bad whereas a "bad" rare is a card that is worthless in limited and then becomes worth $30 someday) to make the set spicy or whatever their rationale for printing Vizzerdrix was.

With no future core set for Leyline to slot into, we're looking at an awkward reprint in some sort of supplementary product some day, if we see any reprint at all. What's the future of core set rares like this? I can't say, but I do know that when we get a full spoiler of Modern Masters 2015 and this card isn't in the set, we may find ourselves wishing we'd bought in when they were "cheap" at $30. I think there is short-term flip money to be made buying these with trade-in credit and selling them when they get a bump from MM15 exclusion the way I think they will.

Leyline is far from the only core set card that will be tough to reprint and which has upside.

Hive Mind

In general, if the name of the card is the same as the name of the deck it's in, it's important. Hive Mind isn't always the marquee card in the deck that uses it, but it frequently is and saw another bump recently with its inclusion in the Amulet Bloom deck that has made every card in it spike for like the fourth time. Hive Mind is a card that forces opponents to play spells they may not want to play. Sometimes they are forced to play pacts that they can't afford to pay for and they lose. This is funny to me.

Hive Mind isn't quite as difficult to print in some random set, but this doesn't really play well with a set's unique mechanics, it is sort of offbeat and weird and would look awkward in any set it's in. This seems also destined for supplementary product if it's reprinted at all.

The great thing here is that it's not expensive enough for there to be much pressure on Wizards to reprint it so it seems likely to just sort of hang out around $4 and maybe go back down a bit. Still, this card will be used in a deck that gets played on camera again. People won't look at its historic ceiling and buy accordingly. They'll whip their wallets out and buy out TCG Player because that is how MTG Finance works now.

Every time this goes back down, a few more copies end up not going back into the market. There are fewer and fewer copies listed for sale on sites. This card will dry up and with the likelihood that it gets reprinted pretty low since it's such a goofy card, you can just start trading for these and putting them in a box. Fewer copies being listed is going to put upward pressure on the price. I think as this goes down, get more and more aggressive about targeting these. I used to get shipped these as bulk rares and I bet every rando who played back then has a copy in their binder.

If this ever hits $2.50 again, you know it won't stop at $4.50 the next time it goes up. They aren't making more of these and more and more people think they're going to be the next LSV and win win a Hive Mind deck. Look at that price graph. This is a solid investment with proven upside potential. Expect it to shoot past its historical ceiling next time people take notice. I like this card as a trade target a lot.

Baneslayer Angel*

Yes, asterisk.

This card could easily be printed in FTV: Angels coming up and if it is, all bets are off. I don't know the likelihood of it, but I would say it is higher than the likelihood of Leyline of Sanctity in MM15. Accordingly, I am not going to advise that you bet your money.

However, outside of supplementary product, it seems unlikely that they want to usher in another year plus of dominance by this plucky angel. The price is coming down a bit over time and that is a trend that seems likely to reverse itself long-term because this will be hard to reprint unobtrusively and there is no real reason to do so. It's underwhelming in EDH so it's unlikely to see a reprint there. It's expensive and unlikely to be in a duel deck. If it's not in FTV: Angels, the chances to reprint it sink a lot.

I don't think the price will tick up immediately if it's excluded from FTV: Angels, but I think there is real upside even buying in at $12ish on something with a lot of printings. Look how much it went up in a year just because. This card isn't done growing. I'm going to let it fall a bit and rebound or get blown out by an FTV printing (or not) before I make any moves, but I have my eye on this card. Angels, Demons and Dargons are good.

Rune-Scarred Demon

In nearly every way possible, this is the opposite of Baneslayer and I have the opposite instincts with respect to him.

First of all, he's insane in EDH and his foil price is baffling. Will the new Sidisi make him obsolete? I really doubt it for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is demons' appeal in Kaalia decks. This is a very, very good EDH card and its foil multiplier does not accurately reflect reality. If this card is doomed to only be reprinted in supplementary products, so much the better.

I'm unconcerned with his $5 pricetag when the foil is much, much, much, much harder to reprint in supplementary products. The foil price here is super wrong and any nudge is going to correct it. As soon as people take notice, this is likely to correct to a 2x multiplier, minimum.

Don't all go out and buy out TCG Player and ruin it for everyone. Buy a few scattered copies on smaller sites and don't attract attention. We're not trying to wreck this price overnight, we're trying to accumulate copies for an inevitable price increase. I think the non-foils have upside, too, but the foils are the play I like. If we don't screw this up, there is real upside here.

Adaptive Automaton

"Finally, a lord for my Dwarf tribal deck" - nerds

This is a no-brainer. Solid gainer, slightly tough to reprint. People undervalue this. This could see a reprint in some supplementary product but that fear hasn't stopped this from climbing steadily.

This is the riskiest card I have identified, but the casual appeal is absolutely off the charts. I had a casual player propose a Verdant Catacombs for one of these when Catacombs was $15. I gave him a playset and still felt bad. He acted like I pulled his mother out of a burning bus. This is casual gold, and a reprinting might not even do much to slow its ascent.

There you have it. I think there are likely a lot more cards and I may do five more next week. These are all cards that will be tough to reprint in the exact same manner as their initial printing and I think they all have real upside. Don't agree? Don't see your pet card? Leave it below.

Until next week!