2014 is wrapping up and 2015 is on the horizon.

After the chaos of the Khans of Tarkir fall set, Magic is currently in the annual end-of-the-year lull, so it’s a good time to look ahead and plan for the future.

Standard

Using recent history as a lesson, looking back at Theros staples, Mythic Elspeth, Sun's Champion bottomed at $19 the first week of February, rose a few dollars to $22 by mid-March, then waxed and waned in the $19-22 range before spiking towards $30 at the beginning of fall in preparation of PT: KTK, and falling back under $20 since.

Stormbreath Dragon bottomed out at $16 in early February before reaching and maintaining a $20 pricetag from the middle of March to the middle of April, before steadily falling to $12.50 at the end of August. It then steadily rose to nearly $20 by the end of PT: KTK, and has since fallen back towards $13.

Rare Thoughtseize fell to $17 at the end of November 2013 and barely moved until September of this year, eventually peaking over $22 after PT: KTK, and has since fallen back under $19.

Sylvan Caryatid bottomed at $5 at the turn of the year, then began slowly and steadily rising, beginning in March and eventually reaching $8 at the beginning of September, before sharply spiking and peaking at $17 the week before PT: KTK. It has since fallen back down to nearly $8.

All of these cards reached a bottom in winter sometime around the release of the second block set, Born of the Gods, slowly rose in price as they saw increasing Standard play and reduced supply through the summer, then spiked in speculation of the new Standard season and accompanying Pro Tour, beginning 4-6 weeks before. And then sharply fell back down to the pre-spike price.

It’s reasonable to assume we’ll see similar trends for KTK cards in 2015.

KTK staples, including mythics like Sorin, Solemn Visitor, Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker, and Wingmate Roc, and rares like Mantis Rider and Siege Rhino, peaked in price in the weeks surrounding Pro Tour: KTK, whether in anticipation of the event of a reaction to it, at a time when their supply was at a relative low.

Prices of these cards and nearly everything else in the set has steadily fallen in price since. Now, at the end of December, they seem to have steadied out. KTK has been opened in huge volume like no set before, so the driving down in price was the inevitable result.

Fate Reforged will be released in under month from now, at which point the focus will shift away from KTK and toward the new cards. KTK will still be opened throughout the year in limited formats, but less volume.

Given the price trajectories of Theros staples, I suspect KTK singles prices are currently at their lowest or will reach their lowest within the next month. So now is very likely the best time to finish playsets or stock up on specs.

That being said, while the prices of KTK are unlikely to fall anytime soon, it’s just as unlikely the prices will sharply rise. KTK will continue to be opened, especially given the allure of fetches, and cards that don’t see top-tier Standard prices may still have a little room to fall. And even a card moving to the top-tier is unlikely to spike but rather slowly gain value through the summer.

It’s also very likely that top KTK cards--and others from the block--will spike in preparation of the rotation change coming this fall, with the release of “Blood”, and perhaps this change will occur even earlier than ever. The time to acquire those cards will not be in September, but over the summer months--if not earlier, if not now.

As far as Theros cards, the time to get rid of them has passed, but the time to lock-in current prices will be over the next three months.

Looking to Return to Ravnica cards, they were rather steady over the winter before falling at the end of February into early March, in some cases drastically.

Standard-specific cards like Sphinx's Revelation, Jace, Architect of Thought, and Desecration Demon were included in this, but eternal cards like Abrupt Decay and Steam Vents bucked the trend and actually rose during this period.

The lesson for Theros? I’d be looking to get rid of Standard stuff, like planeswalkers and the green midrange staples, as soon as possible, while I’d pick up every Thoughtseize I can before spring.

Modern

The actual Modern metagame is a bit hard to predict, given the uncertainty surrounding the banned list.

It will be updated when Fate Reforged is released a month from now, and many predict some large changes. Treasure Cruise is very likely to be banned, while Dig Through Time possibly banned, but less than likely.

I just don’t know about Jeskai Ascendancy, but given how one-dimensional, one-sided, and unfun to play against it is--not to mention powerful--I would expect it also banned. But, again, wouldn’t be completely surprised if it isn’t.

As far as unbannings, I’d expect they will wait another set to see how the format shakes out. It’s possible something will be unbanned to mix up the Pro Tour: Fate Reforged metagame. But going over the banned list, there really isn’t much left that would be safe to unban.

I don’t want to go card-by-card and rehash why they won’t be unbanned, but the short of it is any of the cards would do a lot to warp the format in a way Modern has already experienced and Wizards has already squashed. Artifact lands are the most likely candidate, but given that Affinity is already a top-tier deck, it’s not necessary and wouldn’t be terribly impactful.

I expect that some bannings--combined with some new sets and especially the new fetchlands--will be enough of a change for them.

How would I prepare for Modern? I’d focus my positions based on Modern Masters 2015, which will stop at New Phyrexia. I’d fill my portfolio with specs from Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks--cards that are clear Modern staples for the foreseeable future.

I’d also be eager to pick up any foils of the cards I mention.

Snapcaster Mage is a safe bet, and without Treasure Cruise in the format it will define blue decks.

It doesn't seem like a bargain at $30, but the reality is that nothing but a very, very unlikely banning or an even less likely core set printing would drive the price lower.

The set is now over three years old, Snapcaster Mage is a 4-of, and it commands a lot of play in casual formats and even Legacy and Vintage.

This is a blue-chip for the foreseeable future, and it may very well double or triple in price before being reprinted in a future Modern Masters edition a couple years down the line.

Liliana of the Veil is another strong spec in the near future, since it certainly won’t be in Modern Masters 2015 and may be the single biggest winner from the banning of Treasure Cruise.

This was rumored to be slotted for the M2015 core set, so it’s a possibility for the next core set this summer. I’d likely look to get rid of extra copies immediately after MM2015 increases Modern format interest.

I’m also a big fan of the enemy “checklands” from Innistrad block, particularly Sulfur Falls.

Blue lands always demand a premium, and Izzet is a premier Modern color combination. These lands already see plenty of Modern play, and they are arguably better than filterlands like Cascade Bluffs for most decks, so there’s a lot of upside.

These aren’t really applicable in Legacy, but they do also have plenty of casual demand. Sulfur Falls sits at $7 and it could easily double in the wake of Modern Masters 2015. I don’t expect the other lands in the cycle to see as much Modern play, but they are all cheap and don’t have much downside.

Isolated Chapel is the biggest bargain at just $2. It has a history of Modern play and has a lot to gain from the banning of Treasure Cruise.

Restoration Ange has a strong future in a post-Treasure Cruise world, and the current pricetag in the $7-8 range is attractive. This will likely rise in the coming months and may sit at double its current once Modern Masters 2015 is on the shelves.

I may be too optimistic, but there’s really nothing that could actually lower this price. So whatever happens, it’s a safe bet.

Abrupt Decay is very reasonable at around $10, and it’s likely slightly discounted because BG/x decks have fallen since Treasure Cruise was printed.

A banning there will prop Abrupt Decay back up to a pre-KTK $12, and I expect it to rise through the year, perhaps hitting $20+ a year from now or earlier.

Shocklands are another strong spec. They are a very important Modern staple that everyone needs, and they have gained a lot with the printing of more fetchlands in KTK. I can’t really see these falling in price, but they have plenty of room to grow. They have been quite stable for a long while, so now would seem to finally be their time to appreciate.

I already mentioned it, but I’m bullish on Thoughtseize in general. It’s relatively recent so it shouldn’t spike too hard anytime soon, but it has room to double in price over the next year or three.

Flops

I’d stay away from anything likely to be in Modern Masters 2015.

Mox Opal is a given, and it’s already fallen around 16% on MTGO since Etched Champion was confirmed in the set. If printed as a mythic, it won’t likely fall drastically, but I wouldn’t be holding extras.

The cycle of Worldwake manlands, like Celestial Colonnade, are a bit expensive, fun for limited play, and would be easy to fit into a five-card rare cycle. It’s speculative, but I would expect these to be included in Modern Masters 2015. If so, they will fall drastically in price.

Linvala, Keeper of Silence is quite expensive and would be easy to slot into Modern Masters 2015.

The worst Modern holds of all are clearly the expensive commons and uncommons that will likely be the bread and butter filler cards of the set. I have gotten rid of all extra copies of Inquisition of Kozilek, Serum Visions and Gitaxian Probe.

~

Please turn to the comments with your own specs, flops, and any other ideas. Or with criticism of my logic and arguments.

For a deeper look at #mtgfinance in the past year with an eye towards 2015, please check out the year in review podcast I did with Magic financier James Chillcott and with Doug Linn.

Cheers!
-Adam