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Insider: The Latest Look Into Modern from GP Milan – An Analysis of the Cards With the Biggest Impact on the GP

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All the talk these days seems to be about Modern. I know I return to the format often because it’s personally my favorite, but at times like these I’m also pretty sure it’s the most relevant financially. Legacy doesn’t change much and Standard is in a holding pattern for the next few weeks, whereas Modern allows us to actually plan out a little medium-to-long term.

Before I get into the breakdown of the results of the last GP, I want to briefly touch on the response to my article last week. Several people seem to think that my calls were too conservative. For the TL;DR of that, I stated I don’t see the chase mythics from Modern Masters 2015 dropping so much that it’s worth selling now and rebuying later. Basically, I’m betting that the truly chase mythics like Emrakul or Tarmogoyf or maybe even some Cryptic Command-level rares won’t drop below their current buylist price, making it a little short-sighted to sell out now.

I can certainly understand that reaction, given the larger print run of this set compared to the first Modern Masters. But the problem is that we don’t know how much larger the print run will be. If the print run is twice as big, for instance, I think it follows a similar trajectory to the first set. If it’s five times as large we can assume massive price drops.

But we don’t know, and we won’t for a long time. Given the higher MSRP, larger interest in Modern thanks to affordable lands and larger player base, that extra print run could easily be mitigated. We don’t know. What we do know is how Modern Masters 1 performed, and that’s what I worked off of in my calculations.

But I think one thing is for sure. Trading away the cards you fear reprints of for other post-New Phyrexia staples is a can’t-lose strategy. In this way you can more or less nullify the buylist hit and essentially “lock in” current value. I think this is both the safest and probably most profitable path forward.

Cruising for a Ban

Again, keep in mind the Top 16 we’re going to look at matters only in the context of no bans when Fate Reforged comes out. I would not be surprised (and LSV has gone on record saying the same) that Cruise, Dig and possibly Ascendancy will be banned in Modern. I know some people are claiming the metagame has adapted, but the truth is, outside a random weird (actual) Affinity list, you can play exactly three decks in Modern right now.

  • Treasure Cruise decks.
  • Dig Through Time decks.
  • Birthing Pod.

 

 

At least, that’s been the narrative. I don’t think that’s a format Wizards wants around forever, especially considering the top decks are literally just watered-down versions of Legacy decks.

So with that in mind, I’m going to be taking a look at this Top 16 through the lens of what to sell to hedge against bannings, as well as possible buys.

  • 28 Serum Visions
  • 24 Tarmogoyf
  • 23 Treasure Cruise
  • 23 Gitaxian Probe
  • 20 Thoughtseize
  • 18 Abrupt Decay
  • 16 Delver of Secrets
  • 13 Snapcaster Mage
  • 12 Birthing Pod
  • 10 Noble Hierarch
  • 9 Voice of Resurgence
  • 7 Chalice of the Void
  • 6 Dig Through Time

Not exactly as bad as could be expected, actually.

What about lands?

  • 15 Windswept Heath
  • 11 Wooded Foothills
  • 8 Flooded Strand
  • 2 Polluted Delta
  • 0 Bloodstained Mire
  • 34 Scalding Tarn
  • 21 Misty Rainforest
  • 20 Verdant Catacombs
  • 9 Arid Mesa
  • 8 Marsh Flats

Takeaways

-       Rumors of the Goyf’s demise were clearly overstated. Even when delving away your graveyard, Goyf is king.

-       Only six Dig Through Time is actually surprising. Of course, when it’s coupled with 23 Cruises, we still see the problem. I think there’s a small chance WOTC bans Cruise but not Dig. Dig, after all, does essentially cost “double” the mana to cast, so I’m not sure all the Cruise decks can replace Cruise with Dig and go on their way. That said, I don’t think WOTC would want to have to come back later and ban Dig away, so it could just be deemed too dangerous and thrown out as well.

-       Gitaxian Probe is an all-star in this meta and will be as long as Jeskai Ascendancy is legal. It’s $2.50 right now and could easily climb to $4-5 if things stayed the same. That said, I expect this in Modern Masters 2015 along with Pod and Spellskite, so the better play may be FNM Promo Probes, which are currently sitting flat at a nine-month low of $7.50. Given that it still sees play in Legacy and will regardless of what happens in Modern, I like this play a lot more.

-       Abrupt Decay is actually trending downward a little at $10, and I have a hard time believing it stays there. Remember, prices lull every year around the holidays and spike again in the Spring, thanks to tax returns or less holiday spending or cold weather or whatever. Either way, I really like getting into these now in preparation of $15+ next summer.

-       A lot of talk has gone around since we found out Snapcaster Mage wouldn’t be in Modern Masters 2015. It spiked earlier in the year to near-$40 before falling down to the $30 it’s at today. Honestly, I’m not sure we’ll see this hit $50 before it’s reprinted. It’s only a year older than Decay, and generally sees about equal play in Legacy and Modern. If I had to choose, I’d rather go in on $10 Decays than $30 Snapcasters for the next 12 months. That said, these are certainly a safe trade haven in preparation of next summer when I’m sure they’ll be in high demand.

-       Voice of Resurgence could be a sneaky pickup, especially if we see Delve bannings and Pod returns to the top of the heap. Personally I would like this, since I think a format where Pod is the best deck (but still super beatable) is a sign of a good format. Either way, Voice is from a third set that no one wanted to touch, and even though there’s very little else in the set worth anything it’s worth noting Voice is at an all-time low of $16. I think this is much more of a longer-term pickup that needs a few things to break its way to really explode, but the potential is there and I consider it fairly safe.

Lands

Again, I think we have to assume Zendikar fetch reprints in the next six months, either in the next two Standard sets or next summer in Modern Masters 2015. That makes me really leery of getting into them, though there is still value in seeing the hierarchy. Keep this in mind whenever the reprint does come.

And looking at Khans of Tarkir fetches, I’m pretty sure the hierarchy won’t be altered. This isn’t super useful now, of course, but it’s certainly something to remember as we move farther in to the life of Khans.

After a look over these latest results, I still believe we’re going to see a shakeup in Modern, either by banning the Delve cards (most likely) or unbanning something like Bloodbraid. I believe the former is the healthier of the two options for the format, but I’ve tried to present scenarios for both worlds.

 

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Insider: Setting Up to Win – Building Decks Around an Ideal Opening Play

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Setting Up to Win: Standard

Recently I’ve been spending a lot of time on another game in addition to Magic. This new game is Star Wars X-Wing. If you like Star Wars, miniatures, or strategy games, this is something you should make time to try. Once you get the basic rules down, you move on to building your squad and battling with it. This process is quite similar to building a new deck for Magic. There are a variety of strategies and there’s a metagame similar to that of Standard that evolves every time a new expansion is released.

In addition to your ships having abilities, there are a plethora of upgrades that you can choose that will grant additional abilities. Each ship flies differently and depending on what upgrades you choose, a ship can change quite a bit from one person’s build to another.

I bring this amazing, yet seemingly unrelated game, up for two different reasons. The first is for perspective. By playing other games than Magic, it forces your brain to analyze situations differently. This process is great for improving in Magic. Certainly, if you want to be good, don’t spend all of your time on another game, but devoting some time once in a while to other games can actually improve your performance. Other games play differently than Magic and building lots of angles of attack into your working knowledge is a great advantage to have.

The second reason I bring this game up is to talk about the new perspective I’ve gained in Magic by playing X-Wing. In the game, one of the most important parts is planning your opening sequence. A lot of players spend time planning detailed openings that allow the game to play out in the direction they are setting it up. There is also a lot of planning on the fly of course, but having a game plan for your opening is pretty important. Without this preparation, you will be drastically disadvantaged no matter what your opponent brings to battle with.

We can apply this same type of thinking to Magic. Here are some opening strategies currently employed in Standard.

[cardimage cardname='Sylvan Caryatid']

Think about Sylvan Caryatid, and to a somewhat lesser degree Elvish Mystic. By putting this card in your deck you are making some initial claims about your strategy for winning games. The presence of this card in your deck signifies some things that may be obvious but that you probably have not taken a moment to consider. First of all, you are setting yourself up to propel yourself into the midgame as quickly as possible. It’s a defensive creature as well so if you don’t need the extra mana right away, you are also defending yourself, which in turn also helps you survive in order to get to the midgame.

There are many strategies built from this card as a starting point in Standard right now, but without this card, those strategies would be much weaker and may not even exist at all. The best draws the green decks are capable of all start with Sylvan Caryatid being played on turn two.

When approaching deck building in a new format, identifying a card like Sylvan Caryatid is essential to finding the best strategies available. Thinking about your card choices is always important. My suggestion is to think about why you are choosing the cards you are choosing and using that information to help you make your deck building decisions.

[cardimage cardname='Jeskai Ascendancy']

Often players plan their opening strategies on a combination of cards that when played together wins the game on the spot. Jeskai Ascendancy fills that roll in our current Standard format. The interesting part about this enchantment is that it can accomplish that goal in multiple ways.

When planning ahead, you need to decide what you want to happen after you play your Ascendancy. Do you want to try to combo right away, do you want to have a backup plan in case you can’t combo, or do you want to use the abilities of this card in a more fair way throughout the course of the game? Your answer to that question will determine what other cards should go into your deck.

Decks like these develop because someone asks themselves what would happen if they paired a card with another card. Like, what if after I play Jeskai Ascendancy, I just use the abilities on the card to actually pump up my creatures as well as filter through the cards I don’t need in my hand in order to find good cards in each matchup. This seems like what may have happened for Yuuya Watanabe when he was preparing for the World Championship recently.

[cardimage cardname='Favored Hoplite']

Favored Hoplite, or any of the other heroic creatures, are part of a popular aggressive opening strategy right now in Standard. If you know that you want to start the game with a creature that relies on spells in order to become a threat, you need to build your deck with that concept in mind.

I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about this type of opening sequence lately but my focus has been on doing this in Modern. In Standard, Heroic is one of the only ways to have an opening like this, but in Modern we have Infect, Affinity, and Bogles with other possibilities as well.

Let’s say that we want our opening to consist of starting out with Glistener Elf. Conventional knowledge states that after we play that creature, we should follow it up with spells that pump its power up quickly like Giant Growth type effects and preferably ones that also do other things like Vines of Vastwood. Additionally, we should play some blue spells like Spell Pierce to protect our creatures because that’s a good strategy but also because we should include Blighted Agent as one of our possible openers.

What if we decided that our follow up to Glistener Elf should be Rancor though? Is that better, and what implications does that have on the rest of our list? A lot of players get stuck in a rut of pairing card with cards they ‘should’ be paired with. I’m guilty of this type of thinking as well, but pushing past it helps us discover new strategies and helps take decks to the next level.

With this current example, using Rancor as step two could lead to a more aura-based strategy, sort of like combining Bogles with Infect. In a metagame where Path to Exile doesn’t see much play, like the one we’re in right now, that might be a better set up for your protect-the-queen strategy than trying to play only pump spells to win the game.

[cardimage cardname='Dissolve']

Dissolve is yet another opening card strategy that is seeing some play in Standard. All of the other cards have cost one or two mana, so starting with this as your opening strategy already seems weaker than the other strategies. If this counter were paired with other strong removal spells as well as good card drawing and a potent finisher, then this might be a more viable strategy in Standard. As it stands now, playing a strategy revolving around Dissolve is tough to accomplish because your spells cost relatively a lot of mana and they are not that much better for costing more.

There are certainly more opening strategies in Standard right now, but those are the most common as well as the ones that have been finding success. I found it quite interesting that there were virtually no decks with openings like Soldier of the Pantheon or Akroan Crusader that are doing well right now. This seems to be a direct result of the Sylvan Caryatid decks that run lots of lifegain cards, clog the ground, and may follow up with Doomwake Giant.

To those of you trying to play an aggressive strategy right now, consider how other players' openings affect your card and deck choice. Be the player thinking about the card choices you make and not the one following the crowd. Hopefully today I’ve given you guys some strategies to do just that.

Setting up to Win: Finance

[cardimage cardname='Fatestitcher']

These days in Magic finance, you need to be ahead of the game in order to be making money. Unless you are thinking about the possible trajectory or get lucky and identify a card right as it’s spiking, you are not likely going to make money on speculating.

Take Fatestitcher for example. Your window to make money on this bulk uncommon was extremely short. If you waited until you saw it seeing play in Legacy to try to get in, that was already too late. The best time to get in is when you are hearing rumors about a card seeing play and think it has a legitimate shot at jumping in value. These types of speculation tend to be more risky though, but the community reacts extremely quickly to any new development that you must be one step ahead if you want to continue to speculate.

Because speculating has become harder than it used to be, we may need to investigate other ways to make money with our resources. The best way I’ve found is that many serious traders have transitioned into owing or helping run businesses so they can be getting the buy list price instead of full price in trade value. This is not an option for everyone, but if you have built up some skills, maybe it’s time for you to approach your local shop and ask to sell singles there and help them build up a community.

If you are not up for that challenge yet, try to identify trends in the Standard metagame that you can take advantage of. I used to do this before I got involved with my business. What I mean by this is that you don’t have to be ripping people off in order to get ahead in trading. For instance, if you think a card is going to increase in value even a dollar or two, it may not be worth it to buy into that card, but it’s definitely worth it to trade for the card. If you are constantly trading for cards that go up a couple dollars in value you will find your binder continually increasing in value.

Regardless of how you do it, there is still a lot of money to be made using Magic as our medium. How are you going to make your money from this game?

Building Better Gamers

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In case you didn't know, our very own Kelly Reid was the guest on a recent podcast hosted by Scott Spain.

giftsgiven

It's a good cast, and I enjoyed listening to it. Plus it's always nice to see QS or the Magic finance community in general receive some attention. Anyway, I suggest checking it out, and you can find the full cast here.

Play
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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Crux of Fate

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Crux of Fate

I have a blessedly short memory sometimes, especially when it comes to spoilers I saw over a month ago and haven't really thought about since. Remember Valorous Stance from yesterday?  This is a card. It's a pretty good card at that. It inspired a lot of discussion because it's pretty solid and should be drafted somewhat early; provided the rest of the set isn't so good that it eclipses this. It also inspired a few questions on Twitter.

Untitled

 

Now, what I SHOULD have said was "This is not the first 'choose one' card they'd spoiled so far, so it seems likely there will be a cycle, maybe one at uncommon and one at rare." What I forgot was that we've already seen a card that answers his question.

Seeing Crux at rare and Stance at uncommon makes me think we're due as many as 10 mono-colored "choose one" spells in the set, and that broad utility will make them decent cards with additional upside that could see them being played outside of this block and therefore for years to come if they're good enough for EDH. Could a Rorix Bladewing or Scion of the Ur Dragon EDH deck want this over Damnation? It's likely worth the extra mana. It's tough to speculate knowing nothing, but with only 3 cards spoiled so far, it will help us immensely if we can keep track of what we've had spoiled already.

 

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Fate Reforged Spoiler, FreeTagged , 4 Comments on Crux of Fate

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Plenty of Magic Coming Up

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Of course, almost every weekend is these days, but this time period especially so, considering it's also the holidays. Either way, we have to thank WOTC for keeping us updated.

Whip-of-Erebos-Theros-Spoiler

In this particular case, we can thank Nate Price, or WOTC_Nate as he's known on Reddit. Anyway, he provided a really detailed list (including PTQs!) of upcoming events for the next few weeks, and it's well worth checking out!

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, FreeLeave a Comment on Plenty of Magic Coming Up

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Heroes and Villains at Wizards of the Coast

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Yesterday, I wrote a piece questioning why Cube is not available more often on Magic Online. A comment on that piece, particularly one part of that comment, stood out to me:

QScomment

The part that stood out to me was this: "MTGO stands in stark contrast to how the rest of the company is run." How spot-on is this statement?

Paper Magic has a staff full of individuals that are generally well-regarded in the community. Aaron Forsythe actively engages fans on Twitter and writes straightforward articles that helps the community feel involved in the process of making Magic. Mark Rosewater has an extracurricular blog and a podcast specifically designed to provide two-way communication with Magic fans, and if there's one thing apparent in all of his work, it's enthusiasm. Helene Bergeot has shown her willingness to quickly respond to community concerns and complaints. The game itself is designed and developed by a team of dedicated staff who interact with fans through articles, Twitter, blogs, and other means. The creative team has been on point for the last several years, and the flavor and unifying story elements of the game are at peak quality. Del Laugel and her editorial team do a great job keeping the game error-free and aesthetically pleasing. Though I'm not a fan of every business decision the company makes, it's hard to point out any huge problems with how this game is designed, marketed, and produced.

In short, Wizards of the Coast is a company that has its shit together.

Wizards-of-the-Coast-logo

Then we have Magic Online. With Magic Online, we have broken promises, metagame-breaking bugs, tournament-ruining crashes, lack of availability of in-demand events, a broken economy with no relief in sight, and a willful ignorance of modern pricing models. Marshall Sutcliffe's interview with Jon Loucks about leaving WOTC really highlighted the broken systems in place at Magic Online HQ.

Worth Wollpert, the executive producer of Magic Online, gets a lot of hate, and who knows if that's fair or not? I don't know him personally—he could be the nicest guy in the world. He could also be a great leader with a clear vision for Magic Online. We don't really know if he's the problem or just a scapegoat for Hasbro's lack of support for MTGO. I'm not a fan of unwarranted vitriol or blame, and I think Wollpert gets a lot of it.

However, I do know that Magic Online has not gotten better in quite some time, Wollpert's articles are evasive and opaque, and his tweets are defensive and blame-deflecting. It's not uncommon to see Wollpert refer a tweeted complaint to Chris Kiritz or Mike Turian, as if it's not his problem. I don't know if it's a lack of tact or what, but Wollpert is in charge, period. If he wants to refer things to his staff internally, fine, but doing it publicly just implies that he's washing his hands of the issue. It doesn't look good. You don't see Aaron Forsythe pulling stuff like that.

mtgo_logo

My perception, which I believe reflects the general playerbase's perception, is that paper Magic is made up of the "good guys" and that MTGO is made up of, if not the "bad guys," at least the "incompetent guys." All of the good feelings I have for people like Mark Rosewater and Aaron Forsythe do not extend to the staff of MTGO, whether that's fair to them or not. It's so extreme that I didn't even bother applying for a job on the Magic Online team a few months back, despite the fact that the job listing read like a verbatim list of my skills and experience. Working at WOTC would be pretty cool, but after hearing Loucks's interview, it was clear to me that getting a job on the digital team would be extremely frustrating at best.

Magic has experienced unprecedented growth the last few years, but how much longer can an analog game like paper Magic last? Sure, maybe it has another 20 or 30 years, but lesser digital games with better software, like Hearthstone and SolForge, are going to start encroaching on Magic Online's market share in a big way over the next few years. If Magic is going to outlive Mark Rosewater, as he regularly says he believes, WOTC needs to get its digital products in line with its physical ones. Magic Online can't continue to act like it's 2002.

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Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

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Posted in Free, MTGO5 Comments on Heroes and Villains at Wizards of the Coast

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Valorous Stance

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Valorous Stance

We have the first spoiler from Fate Reforged and it's not a bad one at all. There probably isn't much financial relevance here, but it's a very solid piece of removal indeed. In limited, this will be best against the slower clans, but the indestructibility can help you win trades against faster ones provided you have a blocker to wager. Cards that have multiple modes are always good and this is no exception. This is obviously very good in Limited, but I don't know whether it will be maindeckable in Standard. It's great for smacking down a Courser of Kruphix or Wingmate Roc, but it's a bit narrow. Still, having the indestructibility mode may make it usable in a UW heroic shell or something. All I know is that I'm happy spoiler season is here again.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Fate Reforged Spoiler, FreeTagged , 4 Comments on Valorous Stance

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Insider: The Hidden Value of Trading – Why Fair Trades Done Right Are Still Profitable, Often for Both Parties

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The typical Magic card trading wisdom is something along the lines of "buy low, sell high." Others refer to it as “survival of the fittest.” There is a ruthless, winner-take-all, zero sum mentality that permeates through the culture from top to bottom. Unfortunately, many small-scale traders take this sort of mentality to heart, and ripping off a new player at the local store is their way to feel like a big-time player in the finance game. This sort of mentality is destructive to the health of the game and communities.

From another perspective, typical “value” trading grows increasingly difficult to do in a world where pricing information grows increasingly more accurate and obtainable every day. Of all the trades I have done in the last year, only a handful haven’t involved a smartphone on either side checking prices on TCGplayer or one of the various pricing apps in widespread use.

When neither party is able to take advantage of a pricing knowledge gap, trades are likely to be executed fairly in a pure value sense. Also consider that the more the community is aware of prices in general, and the more people are attempting to extract value, there is less value to go around.

Looked at from either a moral or practical sense, attempting to execute classic value trades by exploiting a card pricing knowledge gap is not a valid strategy. That being said, there is plenty of value to be gained from trading that benefits everyone involved.

When trades are executed at even value, both parties are effectively just moving cards around. From a value perspective, nothing is being accomplished. No value is being gained by either party, but also consider that nothing is being lost. This has some important implications.

Trading Eliminates Transaction Costs

Trading eliminates transaction costs. If two parties can get together and work out a trade where they each get what they want, then everybody wins.

Imagine two cards, X and Y, each worth $10. Now imagine that I want card X for my deck, and you want card Y for your deck. If we get together and trade, and you discover that I have card Y, and I see you have card X, we can make an even trade where everybody wins.

Now what if we never got together? Maybe I wouldn’t have had any use for card Y, and I would have just buylisted it away for $7. If you couldn’t find card Y in a trade, you’d be forced to spend $10 for card Y online, perhaps plus a shipping cost. If we both acted in this way, then something like $6 or more would vanish from our mutual collections and our community.

In that scenario, trading allowed each of us to turn our cards into something valuable to us, but without losing any value on the transaction. If we each buylisted our cards and then purchased what we needed, then we both were forced to attrition away our value to a third party.

This sort of trading is particularly great for fostering a Magic community at the local level. Assuming the goal of everyone is to play more Magic, more fun and engaging, more deep and dynamic Magic, then having more cards and thus more options makes that happen. Trading allows us to all get what we want and get to playing, and it allows us to keep our card value right in our community, as opposed to bleeding it out to some far-away store.

Trading for Speculation

Trading is a great way to achieve speculation goals, especially given what we now know about its minimal transaction costs. Trading is an excellent way to change the specific composition of a collection, even if the actual dollar value remains the same after each transaction. If trading just moves cards around between people, then having a goal in mind and strategy to achieve it is important, and speculation is one such strategy.

Speculation is attempting to take advantage of perceived metagame and market fluctuations in the future. In this case, value is created by the forces of time. At the basic level, it means trading for cards that you expect to rise in price in the future, and conversely, it means trading away cards that you expect will fall in price in the future. The best speculative trades are ones that trade away cards expected to fall for cards expected to rise, which accomplishes both goals at the same time.

Trading as a method of speculation requires planning ahead. One must develop a strategy based on their future expectations, which can be tricky, but luckily anyone reading this article has access to the wealth of information available from QuietSpeculation Insider articles and the Insider forums to help make those judgments.

On a practical level, speculative trading requires tailoring a trade binder with speculaton goals in mind.

Trading partners will view anything in the binder as up for trade, and no one likes the person who has a binder littered with cards that they “just aren’t looking to trade right now.” Identify the cards you want to hold for the future, physically remove them from the binder, and store them in place dedicated to your speculative holds. In the trade binder, these cards will only serve to distract trade partners, waste time, and possibly even sabotage your entire trade.

Conversely, stock your trade binder with cards that you are looking to get rid of. If someone is interested in any of those cards, trade them away for anything you expect will maintain value. As time goes on don’t be afraid to trade these away at a discount for cards on the move upwards, because if you are right about your speculation, given enough time your assumptions will be realized and your cards will no longer be worth what they once were. Also, people often discount cards when trading up to expensive high-end cards, so these are perfect candidates for that sort of transaction.

It could be argued that speculation takes advantage of an information gap the same way that value trading does, but in reality it comes with significant uncertainty and risk. It’s also important to realize that trading partners are acting under their own agency and volition. Their reasons for trading aren’t necessarily in line with yours.

While you may be trading away a card because you think it will be reprinted, they may be trading for it because they need it for a tournament that weekend. You could be trading for a card you think will rise, and they may be trading away part of their old deck so they can construct an EDH deck for their group game with friends. It’s a simplistic explanation, but assuming everyone gets what they came for, it’s win-win.

Trading to Buylist

Buylisting is the easiest and perhaps the most efficient way to turn cards into cash. For someone who buys large collections for profit, is looking to liquidate or downsize their collection, or incorporates buylisting into their overall Magic finance strategy--or simply needs a little bit of spending cash--trading is an excellent way to achieve buylist goals.

Buylisting is interesting because it is quite variable based on the conditional needs of stores. Two cards may be worth $10, but one might have a buylist price of $8 and another a buylist price of $6. If you are knowledgeable about buylist prices, which Trader Tools 3 puts at your fingertips, then trading can be an excellent way to get the most out of what you have.

Here is a simple example: I trade my $10 card X, which buylists for $6, for your $10 card Y, which bulists for $8. The trade was an even value for both parties, but in a buylist sense I actually netted $2 profit, and that is without sharking someone.

This also opens up the opportunity for sharing this value with a trading partner. If for example I trade my $10 retail/$6 buylist card for your $9 retail/$7 buylist card, we both made money. It’s also possible to take this value as extra profit, for example by balancing the trade with a $1 retail card. This facet of trading to buylist is especially important to keep in mind when trading up at a discount for a high-end card, because giving away value may actually lead to increased profit.

Trading also an especially excellent way to achieve buylist goals because of its ability to manage the condition of cards. Buylisting at full value requires near-mint if not mint cards, and often many cards in a collection won’t fit the bill. Most trade partners I encounter aren’t too concerned with condition of cards beyond very glaring damage, usually because they just want cards to play with. Even if the trade partner is concerned with value and places a premium on condition, if the premium is less than the premium the buylist places, the result is still trading played cards for near-mint cards for a net buylist profit. Trading is a great way to turn cards that aren’t in near-mint condition into cards that are near-mint, which ensures the capturing of full buylist value.

Wrapping It Up

Trading need not be a zero-sum game. Both parties can be self-interested, yet both parties can profit. By employing the strategies I shared today, you can get the most out of trading while adding value to your trade partner along the way. What other trading strategies unlock value hidden within cards to the benefit of all involved? Share your thoughts in the comments.

-Adam

Insider: The Best Delver Deck in Modern, Part II – Exploring Metagame Tweaks for the Dominant Archetype in Modern

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One of the first steps that many players take towards becoming respectable players is when they start using their life totals as a resource. When I first started playing I had no idea why Polluted Delta could possibly be an $11 card. My playgroup and I would frequently muse that "there must be some kind of combo..." We weren't technically wrong...

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

As we all know now, a couple points of damage is a small price to pay for consistency. "The only life point that matters is the last one," as they say. Time was when I would play a fetchland into Overgrown Tomb into Thoughtseize in Extended with regularity and laugh about Lava Axe-ing myself. Things are a bit different now...

A few weeks ago I wrote about the merits of playing UWR Delver in Modern. There were a few particulars I was especially excited about; those being a craftier sideboard strategy than traditional Izzet Delver and access to Lightning Helix.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Lightning Helix

Gaining three life on extra copies of Lightning Bolt seemed great. All told, if the deck could just play eight Lightning Bolts proper it would be a tremendous step up. As testing turned out, the downsides of Lightning Helix turned out to be too prohibitive in Delver mirrors, or against non-burn faster decks in general.

As I've said of Legacy many times, two is a lot of mana. Needing access to your secondary and tertiary colors of mana in a deck full of primary mana commitments is problematic as well.

Sometimes your deck just doesn't seem to have enough basics when it comes time to try and find an untapped sixth mana source and others you're off-color because of the few basics you are playing. And despite access to Lightning Helix and sideboard Kor Firewalker, you still sometimes just die to paying 2-3 life for every land.

Long story short, I was getting too fancy. If your "improvements" to the best deck make you worse in the mirror, you're probably doing it wrong.

Now, the claim that Izzet Delver is currently the best deck in Modern might be dubious on its own. Many are still clamoring about Jeskai Ascendancy being top dog despite the deck still not having anywhere near the stranglehold on Modern people were expecting. Meanwhile, Gerry Thompson split the finals of Seattle's Modern Premier IQ battling with Patrick Chapin's Izzet Delver list:

Izzet Delver

Spells

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Monastery Swiftspear
1 Snapcaster Mage
4 Young Pyromancer
1 Electrolyze
1 Izzet Charm
4 Lightning Bolt
1 Mana Leak
1 Remand
2 Spell Snare
3 Thought Scour
2 Vapor Snag
2 Forked Bolt
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Serum Visions
4 Treasure Cruise

Lands

4 Island
1 Mountain
2 Flooded Strand
2 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
3 Steam Vents
1 Sulfur Falls
1 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard

1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Blood Moon
1 Dismember
2 Dispel
1 Electrickery
2 Magma Spray
1 Negate
2 Smash to Smithereens
2 Spell Pierce
1 Bonfire of the Damned

I'm not in love with this deck's Burn matchup, but it's fast enough to keep pace with anything in the format. The only major objection that I have to this list is the shortage of Mana Leaks. There are plenty of spells that when resolved make it very difficult for this deck to win, and many of them cost a scant three mana. The deck that Gerry split with, notably, appears to be cardsthataregoodagainstdelverdecks.deck.

Jeff Fung's Abzan Midrange

Spells

3 Scavenging Ooze
4 Siege Rhino
4 Tarmogoyf
2 Courser of Kruphix
4 Liliana of the Veil
4 Abrupt Decay
1 Darkblast
2 Dismember
1 Slaughter Pact
1 Duress
3 Inquisition of Kozilek
2 Lingering Souls
1 Maelstrom Pulse
4 Thoughtseize

Lands

1 Forest
1 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Godless Shrine
3 Marsh Flats
2 Overgrown Tomb
2 Stirring Wildwood
2 Tectonic Edge
1 Temple Garden
1 Treetop Village
2 Twilight Mire
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Windswept Heath
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

Sideboard

4 Fulminator Mage
2 Stony Silence
1 Golgari Charm
1 Thrun, the Last Troll
3 Drown in Sorrow
1 Duress
3 Timely Reinforcements

Please, God, never give me a pairing against this deck while I'm playing a tempo deck. Not only are Siege Rhino and Courser of Kruphix a certifiable beating in play, but Fung has freaking maindeck Darkblast to easily kill all of Delver's non-Swiftspear threats. Meanwhile, Abrupt Decay covers Swiftspear with comparable ease. These Abzan decks are no joke, and are one of many reasons I wouldn't leave home without the full four Mana Leaks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Darkblast

Another compelling reason for countermagic is Modern's figurative and literal red-headed stepchild in Burn. Burn will ever be a deck in Modern given the current ban list philosophy and it is currently the best-positioned in the format that it has ever been, with Eidolon of the Great Revel burning some games into landslide victories from turn two and Monastery Swiftspear serving as additional, upgraded Goblin Guides.

Gerry/Chapin's Delver list largely says a big "who cares" to the question of how to beat Burn, with only a small amount of relevant counterspells on the sideboard. Of course, considering how many bases need to be covered in Modern, I prefer this approach over sideboarding Dragon's Claw in this deck, especially seeing as all the burn decks will have Smash to Smithereens or Destructive Revelry to call you if that's your plan. If I were going to go down that road at all I'd go with Spellskite for the added utility against Hexproof and Splinter Twin.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Spellskite

This is the 75 that I'm currently testing for GP Omaha:

Izzet Delver

Spells

4 Delver of Secrets
4 Monastery Swiftspear
1 Snapcaster Mage
4 Young Pyromancer
1 Electrolyze
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Mana Leak
1 Remand
2 Spell Snare
4 Thought Scour
1 Vapor Snag
1 Pillar of Flame
3 Gitaxian Probe
4 Serum Visions
4 Treasure Cruise

Lands

4 Island
1 Mountain
2 Flooded Strand
3 Misty Rainforest
4 Scalding Tarn
4 Steam Vents

Sideboard

1 Izzet Staticaster
2 Dispel
1 Electrickery
2 Magma Spray
2 Negate
2 Spell Pierce
1 Counterflux
2 Spell Snare
1 Hibernation
1 Combust

As you can see, my weapon of choice against burn is Spell Snare. The card has lost power as a maindeck option with games revolving way more around Treasure Cruise than Snapcaster Mage, but it still pulls enough weight to have some in the maindeck with enough matchups having a grip of relevant twos to have access to more on the sideboard. Burn, Affinity and Tron are all loaded up on enough twos to make the card matter, and there are easily fringe strategies in the same boat.

Get Your Steam Vents Now

If you missed Derek Madlem's introduction to Pucatrade, definitely give that one a read. Right now. Now that you're finished, you'll see that Steam Vents is a card that he has identified as having a lot of demand through Pucatrade. Rightly so, as it is and always has been in a grip of different Modern decks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Steam Vents

More importantly, no matter what happens with the banlist update, this won't change. Steam Vents was big before Khans of Tarkir, it just didn't pick up much value because supply outpaced demand.

The price barrier of entering Modern at all and weariness about the best Steam Vents deck getting banned are likely the biggest factors keeping Steam Vents as low as it is. With Modern Masters 2015 on the horizon and the fact that Steam Vents will remain popular even with a banlist shake up, now looks like the last looming window to get in close to $10.

Thanks for reading.

-Ryan Overturf
@RyanOverdrive on Twitter

Whip of Erebos: A Case Study

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It's taken over Standard. It's a solid EDH player. It's the second-best four-mana artifact in Modern that can only be activated as a sorcery.

Okay, that last one, while probably true, doesn't mean much.

Anyway, Whip of Erebos.

Whip-of-Erebos-Theros-Spoiler

Right now, everywhere in Standard. Even if we make an exception for the unique format of Worlds Week (no time limit and then Unified Standard), we've seen this card everywhere. Sure, at Worlds the grindy Whip decks experienced an advantage since they didn't have to worry about going to time when they played two-hour matches, but we've seen the Whip (and often Sidisi) decks stick around since then.

You can read the full post here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Why Is Cube Available on MTGO so Infrequently?

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Are you a Cube enthusiast? Do you find it hard to get a group of six or eight players together to draft? Well, you're in luck, good sir or madam, for Magic Online has got you covered. As often as you'd like, you can throw down in a good old-fashioned Cube draft on MTGO in as little as three hours.

Sound too good to be true?

Well, I suppose it is. Because much as I would love to be able to draft the MTGO Cube as often as I'd like, it's unavailable for large portions of the year.

dismalfailure

MTGO's new Legacy Cube seems to be a solid improvement over the old one, inasmuch as there are fewer dead and bad cards in the list. When it was available a couple weeks ago, I played in over a dozen drafts.

Then Wizards of the Coast took Cube offline. How much MTGO have I played since then? Absolutely none.

The reasoning for the periodic availability is pretty intuitive. By making something infrequent, WOTC is attempting to make it special. In a sense, I agree with the business strategy. After all, whenever Cube is available, I play it virtually non-stop. If it was around all the time, players might become bored or distracted and have no incentive to log on to MTGO.

But as it is, now I tend to log on to Magic Online on a Wednesday, see that Cube is no longer available, log out, and don't open the program again until Cube is back.

misstep

On top of that, there's the issue of Holiday Cube. You know what's awesome? Playing with broken cards. So why have we only been allowed to do so for a scant few weeks during one of the busiest times of the year?

In his article about the Legacy Cube, Randy Buehler indicated that he agreed with this line of thought. On his recent Limited Resources appearance, Buehler said he told WOTC that there is more than one holiday a year, and that the Holiday Cube should reflect that. So now the powered list will be available twice a year instead of once.

I say this isn't good enough. If customers are willing to pay for a product, especially  a product not subject to production limitations, isn't it in a company's best interest to make that product available? And yet WOTC has decided to create an artificial shortage. It just doesn't make any sense.

The Legacy Cube should be available for drafting 100 percent of the time. I'd love if the Holiday Cube was also available this often, giving drafters an alternative to the non-powered list, but if WOTC wants to create an artificial shortage of its digital products, the powered version seems like a fine thing to implement on an intermittent basis. But only twice a year? No way.

Obvious answer: the Legacy Cube should be available to draft all the time, and the Holiday Cube (which should be renamed to the Vintage Cube for consistency) should be available several times a year—as often as Legacy Cube is available now.

I've seen Twitter discussions saying that Cube is the only redeeming quality of Magic Online. Which seems like a better plan: leaning on your biggest strength—or hiding it?

What Are Bitcoins?

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In addition to the cryptocurrency of choice of Silk Road and other doers of illegal deeds and maligned by world governments and investors alike for its defiance of conventional currency rules, Bitcoins are darn useful. You can buy them and sell them for cash, or set aside part of your PC to perform operations in exchange for fractions of a Bitcoin per operation to "mine" them. Spiking to nearly $1,000 per "coin" in early 2014, the exchange rate is still hovering around $1,000 for 3 bitcoins - not bad. Well, unless you're the guy who bought two Papa Johns Pizzas for 10,000 bitcoins like one of the currency's early adopters did. At over $3,000,000 in today's money, those pizzas can't have been worth it. It was Papa Johns for crap's sake.

Still, Bitcoin and Magic: the Gathering will be forever intertwined thanks to the "Mtgox" story.

"Mtgox" was the "Magic: the Gathering online exchange" which was originally set up as a Tokyo-based MODO trading platform. However, the developer, Jed McCaleb, soon grew bored of MODO shenanigans and moved on to bitcoins, a sexy new currency that tech-savvy people were talking about. By 2010, Mtgox was handling 70% of all bitcoin transactions. However, it was set up like a Ponzi scheme and in 2014, the site closed down and $450,000,000 in investor's money was... missing. Some of the coins were later "found" but a ton of them went missing and it's unclear how or why. The wiki page is a good read.

How famous is this story? This famous.

This was Jeopardy a few nights ago. Magic keeps making the news, just never in the way we want.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Insider: [MTGO] Modern Masters 2015 and Speculative Implications for MTGO – Planning Ahead of Spoilers Based on Available Information

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A little more than a week ago the second Modern Masters set was officially announced. The set, formally named Modern Masters 2015 (MM2015), will be released at the end of May 2015 with no less than three simultaneous Grand Prix around the world to celebrate the event. MM2015 will also be released on MTGO, a week after the paper version.

Besides Etched Champion and Emrakul, the Aeons Torn, the other 247 cards of the set are still unknown a this point. It may take several more months before we know more about potential reprints and the themes of the set.

A Lot of Uncertainty

MM2015 will contain only reprints of cards from Eight Edition to New Phyrexia. M10, M11, Zendikar and Scars of Mirrodin blocks are added compared to MMA. That's a lot of potential juicy cards.

A direct consequence of the above is that no card from Innistrad, Return to Ravnica or Theros blocks, nor from M12, M13 or M14, will be reprinted in Modern Masters 2015--giving us a comfortable space for speculations.

Additionally, we don't know yet if cards from MMA will be reprinted in MM2015. Nothing says it's possible, nothing says it isn't. Despite being in Modern Masters, Tarmogoyf got more expensive after the release of the set and is still the most expensive card in the Modern format. Could Tarmogoyf be in MM2015? If one of the goals of Modern Masters editions is to make Modern more accessible with cheaper cards, then Tarmogoyf should definitely be in.

Current Modern Prices

Every time a card rises above 20 Tix it is mentioned as a must-reprint in a future Modern Masters set, or any other set for the matter. With the shocklands and more recently Thoughtseize and Chord of Calling, WotC clearly demonstrated that reprints in Standard sets is an option to decrease prices in Modern. However the list of expensive, or expensive-to-be, cards is still quite long and not all of them can be in MM2015.

How many cards are we talking about? I took a look a the current most expensive cards in Modern and here is what it looks like without the cards already reprinted in MMA and without the sets excluded from MM2015.

Most Expensive Modern Cards

These are the cards that have been consistently around and above 20 Tix for the last twelve months at least. How many of them are in MM2015?

Pricy Modern Cards

Below is a list of cards that have been mostly valued between 10 and 20 Tix. If some of them may have dipped below 10 Tix, they are likely to pass this price limit again in the near future, especially if they don't appear in MM2015.

Below are common Modern contenders, some of which have reached 10 Tix, some of which have been on the sideline for many months now. Many of them are on an average upward trend. This includes mythics, rares, uncommons and commons that are likely to cross the 10 Tix bar in the next two years if not reprinted.

These lists give you an idea of what money cards could be in MM2015, and there's plenty others that should also be named here.

There's definitely a lot of options for what could be in MM2015. Are we going to get a rare land cycle? The filters lands? The WWK manlands? The titan cycle as mythics? Etched Champion is there; does it mean more metalcraft cards such as Mox Opal? Emrakul is there too--will he come with more Eldrazi stuff?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mox Opal

At this point, and as long as we don't have most of the spoilers, it is very futile to try to speculate, both with words and Tix, on potential reprints in MM2015. On the other hand, it is not early enough to talk about what is not going to be in MM2015. There's plenty to say and there's no need to guess.

Dealing With Your Modern Cards Now

If you are like me you probably have several dozen Modern positions that are as many potential reprints. It will still take several months before we get more spoilers from MM2015 and we should not have a better idea of what's in this set until March or April. This leaves us enough time to find a decent exit for our Modern investments.

The good news is we have the perfect event coming up for exiting our positions with a good profit--the Modern Pro Tour in Washington DC next February. This is when I intend to sell most of my Modern positions. I'm counting on good coverage of different types of decks to pump as many cards as possible.

Besides the Pro Tour, any decent opportunity between now and March is a good opportunity. I will take no risk and will sell every card threatened by a reprint in Modern Masters 2015. Considering what happened with MMA, I want to have my hands as free as possible to invest in reprinted staples when prices get very low during the first weeks of drafting online.

A Lot of Certainty as Well

For us speculators there's at least one major piece of news here--the sets that are not going to be in MM2015. M13, M14 and mostly Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks contain a decent amount of Eternal-playable cards. Knowing that Modern cards from these sets are not going to be massively reprinted within the next two years represent an excellent investment opportunity.

I know that Liliana of the Veil could have been, or still could be, in a core set despite being reprinted in paper as a promo for players who play a regional PTQ. This doesn't entirely close the door for reprints in M16 but I think chances are too small and for so many potential cards that this possibility won't impact how I plan my investments with Modern staples from M13, M14 and  Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Liliana of the Veil

On average, and with the exception of MMA cards that dipped recently thanks MMA drafts, Modern prices are still fairly flat or low. Focusing on the sets excluded from MM2015 is what you want to do now. I have myself reinforced my positions the past week and will keep doing so this week. Keep in mind that these cards have two years of growth in front of them. Lets see what our options are.

M13 and M14

Who would have bet in October 2012 that Omniscience would be the most expensive card in M13 two years later? No reason to believe the blue enchantment will get cheaper any time soon. Seeing zero play in Modern, Omniscience is nonetheless at an all-time high. Casual and Legacy are the only price drivers here. I'm not really a fan of buying cards that just hit a new record high but I would take the opportunity to buy next time it dips.

In M13, here are the cards I would keep an eye on and consider buying in addition to Omniscience.

In M14, these are the cards we have been already targeting for redemption. The price of many of these cards has gone up, but others, such as Mutavault and Scavenging Ooze, are actually cheaper than two months ago. The ooze seems like a great investment at the moment.

Innistrad block

Two of the most iconic cards of these last years--Snapcaster Mage and Liliana of the Veil--are from Innistrad. Besides these two, Innistrad block is also full of staples in one or more eternal formats. Check this rather impressive list and try to imagine what their price could be in two years.

And I'm not even mentioning the other ISD lands, Faithless Looting, Thought Scour, Olivia Voldaren, Gravecrawler, Vexing Devil, Terminus and plenty others. Avacyn Restored will probably be the most expensive set in Modern once MM2015 hits, even more expensive than Future Sight.

Return to Ravnica block

The shocklands are bound to gain value over time. Not equally and not at the same rate but that's inevitable. Steam Vents saw very little play when in Standard but it's now the most expensive shocklands in Modern thanks to the popularity of URx Delver decks.

Unlike individual cards that might see a reprint here and there there's simply zero chance to see the shocklands in Standard anytime soon. Alongside other Return to Ravnica block Modern staples they are one of the surest bets you could make for the years to come. Some cards still have a relatively low price now. With two years in front of them that's plenty of room for growth.

This block is also full of multicolored legends and casual favorites. Redemption may drive some prices up for now but it's a safety net to know that they won't be reprinted any time soon.

My favorite pick for Return to Ravnica block hasn't change from last time I talked about it here and here. In addition to the shocklands, Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman are the two cards I bought additional playsets of and that I'm pretty happy about them not being in MM2015.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Abrupt Decay

Concluding Remarks

We know so little about MM2015 at this point and there too many possibilities to try to speculate on what could be in the set. On the other hand, knowing the sets that won't be in Modern Masters 2015 is a huge opportunity to set up prosperous investments for the two next years. Innistrad and Return to Ravnica blocks are certainly not short of eternal staples and this is where you should try to capitalize now.

Selling all my Modern positions threatened by a reprint in MM2015 is going to be a main goal at the beginning of this new year. I also want to be ready for when MM2015 hits MTGO. With MMA, so many cards really dipped only to beat new record high few months later--this will be the big buying opportunity of 2015.

 

Thanks for reading,

Sylvain Lehoux

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