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Making the Most of your Counterspells

Posted on February 22, 2022February 22, 2022 by Adam Cohen

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"No." is a Complete Sentence.

Counterspells are perhaps the most self-explanatory part of Magic and certainly one of the game's most integral components. Simple. Clean. Effective. Whether you love them or hate them, the words, "counter target spell" have been a part of Magic since Alpha and you shouldn't plan on them going anywhere. However, the time, place, and context for a given counter is a matter of debate.

So, You Want to Counter That Spell?

Congratulations! Your opponent has foolishly placed a spell on the stack and you have a castable counterspell. What should you do? Counter it? Well, maybe. Just because you can do something, doesn't mean you necessarily should. Before you do anything, ask yourself the following:

Is That Going to Kill Me?

This question is both the most straightforward and the hardest to answer. Much to our shared disappointment, some of our opponent's plays are probably going to have to resolve. We don't have infinite answers at our disposal to deal with everything, so it's best to go after the most threatening targets. Typically, cards you want to avoid countering are low mana value with minimal impact. Your counterspells are at their best when trading up for mana.

As such, you'll often want to ignore cantrips like Consider or cheap creatures like Luminarch Aspirant, especially when they can take a while to build up their threat level or if your deck has access to other forms of removal. Saving your counterspells and cleaning up your opponent's turn two Aspirant with a turn four-five board wipe like Doomskar opens up the possibility of a two-for-one or better by destroying multiple creatures.

Spot removal supplements your counterspells as well. A well-timed Spikefield Hazard or Portable Hole also answers an Aspirant for less mana than your opponent spent and saves your flexible answers for something else. For control and tempo-based blue decks, these margins of card and mana advantage are what can win or lose you the game.

Instead, prioritize countering threats that are difficult to answer cleanly. One such example is Esika's Chariot which puts three permanents on the board. Using your board wipe may deal with the tokens, but it will leave the Chariot behind for future value. Typically, planeswalkers like Wrenn and Seven fall into this category as well by entering the battlefield and immediately drawing a card, creating a token, or some other value piece.

Also, keep in mind what your opponent's outs are based on the current board state. Let's say you have a Goldspan Dragon in play with your opponent at four life and no flying blockers. They have two cards in their hand, then cast an Esika's Chariot. You have a single Negate. The Chariot is immaterial to the outcome of the game on the current board, but you know your opponent has Fateful Absence in their deck. In this situation, Chariot is not a game-winning threat, so you should allow it to resolve. The only card your opponent could have to change the tide of the battle is a removal spell for your dragon. Don't open yourself up to that potential outcome unnecessarily.

Is This the Best It's Going to Get?

Another question to ask yourself is whether there even is another reasonable target in your opponent's deck. Not every counter you'll have is going to be unconditional, especially in smaller formats. Sometimes, your opponent may only have a few cards in their deck that fit the parameters of your Disdainful Stroke, Essence Scatter, or Spell Snare. You may just need to fire it off at the first potential target and move on with your life. Otherwise, you'll be stuck with a dead card in your hand collecting dust. If you plan to run conditional counters, it's important to know the metagame and what your opponent could have in their deck. This will help you prepare accordingly.

Another consideration is how to best utilize protective counters in a combo-based deck. Unfortunately, your opponent can also have access to counterspells, so you'll need to be able to play around that eventuality.

Cards like Force of Will and Pact of Negation (and occasionally Force of Negation) fit into this protective counterspell category. They help force through a powerful (sometimes winning) spell through opposing countermagic. Resolving your Show and Tell, Ad Nauseam, Violent Outburst/Crashing Footfalls, etc. typically results in you winning the game.

You want to protect your combo, but also stop your opponent from advancing their game plan if possible. Understanding when to curtail your opponent's advance versus protecting yours is a critical lesson for combo decks. Considering these examples come with fairly steep downsides, it goes without saying to use them only if you absolutely have to.

What Time is It?

Soft counters like Spell Pierce, Flusterstorm, and Mystical Dispute are excellent as they typically only cost a single mana and allow for interaction in the early stages of the game. However, their taxing effects get worse as the game progresses and your opponent is able to pay the additional costs. This incentivizes you to use them early.

Try to use these spells as early de-stabilizers for your opponent's setup turns to push back their clock. Alternatively, they shine as supplemental counters in a counter war. Your opponent will invest mana into their action spell, then respond to your counter with one of their own, typically limiting the amount of remaining mana they have in the exchange. This opens up the perfect opportunity to snipe their spell with your conditional follow-up counter.

The Cost of Doing Business

Holding up a counterspell lets you keep your shields up, but if your opponent doesn't cast a spell (or a spell that matters), you end up wasting your mana for the turn. These days, there are plenty of ways for your opponent to use their mana without putting a spell on the stack too. Creature lands like Den of the Bugbear can activate and kill you in short order. The same is true for a cycled Shark Typhoon. Supplement your counterspells with other instant-speed effects where possible. Instant speed card draw or flash creatures like Ice-Fang Coatl are good ways to use leftover mana. Alternatively, aim to include modal counters like Archmage's Charm and Drown in the Loch. These cards can be of use even if your opponent doesn't cast a spell, allowing you to maximize your mana efficiency.

End Step

There is certainly more to this topic that I haven't covered. Perhaps I'll revisit and elaborate at a future date. In the meantime, if you have any questions on how to get the most out of your counterspells, or have another area you'd like me to discuss, leave a comment or tweet me at @AdamECohen. I'll catch you all next week!

Because it Doesn’t Win: A Response to Ross Meriam

Posted on February 22, 2022February 22, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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There are many frustrating things in Magic: the Gathering. The game is built around managing the scarce resources of mana and cards to produce wins, and that's very hard. Which is frankly part of the appeal. The thousands of choices and permutations of those choices from deck construction to individual game play keeps Magic fresh and alive.

That said, some challenges are more vexing than others. Especially when that challenge is limited to you and something (or some deck) that you particularly care about. Specifically, it can prove beyond frustrating to have success with a deck while everyone else thinks it's trash. I've been there, and therefore understand where the subject of today's article is coming from.

Last week, Ross Meriam asked why his current Modern deck (4-Color Indomitable Creativity) doesn't see more play in Modern. I realize that the question was mostly rhetorical, and a writer's contrivance introduction to his own article on the deck, but we'll treat it like a serious question. Because it is a good question with a surprising answer.

The Deck's Reality

Ross makes a strong argument for his deck in the article, which I can summarize as "4-Color Creativity is as close to Splinter Twin as it gets in Modern" and is therefore underplayed compared to 4-Color Omnath. As the decks share the same core, Ross believes it would be better to play the combo version. And yet, despite Ross's success, the deck is not only underplayed relative to Omnath versions but barely a player in the format.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Indomitable Creativity

The evidence is unequivocal: 4-Color Creativity is not a good deck in Modern. It hasn't made Tier 3 in my metagame updates since November, and it just squeaked in then. Creativity was mid-Tier 3 overall in 2021. And spoiler alert, nothing will change for the next update. This could be excused if Creativity did well on average power, but it doesn't, typically being at or slightly below baseline. These are not characteristics of an underrated deck.

It would therefore be simple to simply dismiss Ross's assertion as hopeful enthusiasm. He's having success, but since nobody else is, he's clearly an outlier. Follow the wisdom of the crowd: the deck is bad.

Not So Fast

Anyone who knows anything about crowds knows that they're as likely to be wrong as they are right, particularly as the crowd size increases. Humans are prone to groupthink and can be led astray by loud but wrong opinions. Cognitive biases and ignorance also play a factor.

We've seen this repeatedly in Magic before. Why else are there so many articles out there about underrated cards and even decks? For all formats? Famously, a lot of teams looked at Colorless Eldrazi prior to PT Oath of the Gatewatch but didn't run the deck either because they built it wrong or didn't understand it. Those that did prospered mightily. Therefore, a claim that contradicts the data and collective wisdom, such as Ross's, should be fairly evaluated. The collective wisdom can be wrong and an individual right, after all.

A Common Refrain

Which hasn't really happened here. Ross Meriam isn't wrong: 4-Color Creativity is a powerful deck. However, it has a hard time translating that power into actual wins. From my own experience, the deck is putting up numbers consistent with its actual place in Modern. This is a case where the enthusiast is doing better than the typical player. However, that's not what drew me to this topic nor why I'm writing this article. I have heard the exact same claim made about both Legacy Sneak and Show and Vintage Oath of Druids many times before.

Uncannily, the players arguing this point to me have defended and justified their opinions the exact same way that Ross defended and justified Creativity: you do a thing, get a superpowered monster, and win the game. Until that point, just play the control deck and wait for the right window to strike. It's the most powerful combo-control thing to do; why won't anyone else play the deck?!

The Combo That Isn't

Short answer: It's the wrong sales pitch. The problem for all these decks and their proponents is that none of them are actually combo-control decks because none of them are combo decks. They superficially resemble combo decks in that they win by combining a few cards together to produce their win condition. However, said win condition isn't actually lights out! Which is why players end up shying away from these decks.

I'm going to quote Ross directly on this:

I’d rather stall the game out until Indomitable Creativity ends the game on the spot.
Why Aren’t You Playing Four-Color Indomitable Creativity In Modern? Ross Meriam, Starcitygames.com

Every. Time. Someone has tried to sell me (or in Oath's case, someone near me) on these decks, that line has been used. And it isn't true. Yes, there's a high likelihood that the Emrakul, the Aeons Torn or Griselbrand will win the game in short order. Assuming they attack successfully and/or the opponent concedes in the face of the monstrous threat. But the fact remains that the opponent has at least one draw step to find an answer after you "successfully combo off" to get back in the game. The threats don't have haste (except via Sneak Attack). That's not ending the game on the spot, that's setting up for a win next turn.

Forgotten Lineage

Compare this to a successful combo from Twin: Here are infinite Deceiver Exarchs. If you don't have the right answer right now, you're dead. No more draw steps, no extra untap step, no further questions. Just dead. The shell of Creativity may resemble Twin in some ways with the interaction and planeswalkers, but it doesn't compare to Twin's game-ending potential.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Splinter Twin

Which is the biggest misconception about Creativity, Oath, and Sneak. They're not actually combo decks. They're Tinker decks in the old-school sense. While mostly replaced by ramp strategies today, Tinker was all about cheating out a big threat and winning before it was possible to answer it. Which is very effective, as evidenced by Tinker's shining moment at the 2000 World Championship.

However, as Mike Flores once noted in a now lost article "Finding the Tinker Deck" (seemingly remembered only by me, citations, and other references to it), Tinker itself is utterly busted, and consequently Wizards has really toned down the power level of Tinker-like spells. That was early 2000's powering down. And when Tinker isn't utterly busted, it's pretty underwhelming. The support spells do nothing on their own, and if the gameplan doesn't develop exactly as written, the deck does nothing. Players hate decks that do nothing.

The Big Flaw

Which is the reason that all three decks are less popular than their proponents would like. When things come together, there's a high likelihood of victory, but only if the opponent can't answer the threat in the (admittedly short) window they're provided. When things don't come together, all these decks can stall heroically, but they can't actually halt the backwards slide. At which point they have to hope that their big threat is still good when they finally cheat it out. Emrakul cheated in on turn 3 is probably good enough. Emrakul cheated in on turn 10 at 4 life? Probably not.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Tinker

To make matters worse, answers have gotten better and more diverse over the years. Wizards didn't print removal spells capable of removing big creatures efficiently after Terror and Swords to Plowshares were deemed too good. Therefore, decks from that era rarely played spot removal, focusing on counters or mass removal.

It wasn't until very recently that Wizards changed its mind. Standard suffered for years thanks to poor removal and exception threats, and Wizards has been forced to print better answers. Modern has Path to Exile, Solitude, Drown in the Loch (conditionally), and planeswalkers to remove big creatures cheaply. Tossing out an enormous threat and hoping for the best isn't as safe as it used to be.

And the Answer to the Question...

The Tinker family of strategies is not bad. If it was, Tron and Amulet Titan would have fallen by the wayside years ago. Cheating out big threats is an ageless and solid strategy. However, both the mentioned decks are ramp, cousins of Tinker's but not true derivatives. Each packs a lot of different payoffs which can be cast at various points on the mana curve around its support spells to ensure that the fail state isn't too much of a fail state.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karn, the Great Creator

Creativity, like Oath and Sneak before it, is a direct descendent of the original Tinker decks. They want to use a spell to cheat in a big threat without casting it at all. Their only option is to cheat in said threat; it can't be cast in a normal game. If they fail to cheat out their threat, they don't have many options left to actually win the game. The fallback plan is to be a control deck without the density of answers that makes a control deck good. They're decks of compromises.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Emrakul, the Aeons Torn

Which is why true Tinker decks are far less popular and generally perform worse than their ramp cousins. Their harder fail state turns players off and generates a lot of feel-bad moments. Magic players don't like to lose (competitive games attract competitive people), and particularly hate losing to their own deck's failings. Having a less-than-optimal game is one thing; when a deck does a whole lot of things but not the thing that wins the game, it feels much worse. Such is the reality of Creativity, which will just lose if it doesn't draw its namesake card before it runs out of answers. And it doesn't run that many answers.

Truthful Advertising

The moral of this story is that if you're going to bill a deck as a combo that Wins the Game Now, make sure it actually wins the game outright. As all the Sneak players I've beaten with Karakas over the years will attest, leaving the possibility open for the opponent to answer the Tinkered threat is a fatal mistake. It's why Sneak players have adopted Omniscience. Not only does it dodge common Show and Tell hate, it also allows for actual combo kills via chaining instants and tutors. Like an actual combo deck, and not like a ramp deck.

Specific Critiques

I also have few specific problems with Creativity beside the general flaw with the strategy. Hard Evidence is the best anti-aggro card in the deck, as Ross notes. I'd argue that it's also the best token maker because it provides two tokens, one of which isn't a creature and is therefore resilient to common removal fizzling Creativity. Why don't Creativity players play a full set? I've beaten Creativity plenty of times by just answering the tokens. (Engineered Explosives on zero is quite a thing.) And sometimes because Archon of Emeria nerfs Dwarven Mine.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dwarven Mine

Another is that Serra's Emissary is great against linear decks and terrible against anything fair. The former is to be expected and Ross acknowledges that reality. The problem is that Modern is primarily fair now and the fair decks have multiple card types capable of answering Emissary. Being locked out of one type was frustrating at times, but I've never actually been hard locked or lost to Emissary. My experience paints it as very underwhelming.

And finally, drawing the Creativity payoffs is terrible. There's no way to prevent that, and precious few ways to correct it. If Creativity can stick Emrakul or Emissary, they're probably not losing that game. However, once drawn, there are four total ways to get Emrakul back into the deck, and only two for Emissary. That's disastrous. Worse, there's no cantrips to help find Creativity or to avoid drawing payoffs. Remember what I said about compromises? There isn't room for everything in the deck as it stands, so they've made do by hoping to run well. And it doesn't enough to keep players playing and winning with the deck.

Reasonable Expectations

To be perfectly clear, I think that Creativity is a fine deck. However, it has flaws both intrinsic to its design and the strategy it derives from. This is not the right Modern for Creativity to shine and I don't think the deck is all the way there yet. I think that Creativity needs more time in the tank before it can credibly be called underrated.

Modern Top 5: Bullets

Posted on February 21, 2022February 22, 2022 by Jordan Boisvert

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Welcome back to Modern Top 5! In this series, we cut to the meat of contemporary format trends by viewing things through a certain lens. Previously, Modern Top 5 has covered the likes of Hosers, Enablers, and Utility Cards. Today, we'll discuss bullets.

Number One, With a Bullet

What exactly is the difference between a bullet and a hoser, or a piece of utility, or a straight-up staple? As we'll define them today, bullets are flexible interactive cards that are run in small quantities as part of a sideboard plan or mainboard tutoring package.

Today's article owes its existence to the fact that, for the second-ever time I can remember outside of a Tier 0 Modern, MTGGoldfish lists Lightning Bolt as displaced from the number one spot for most-played card in the format... and by a bullet card, no less! This development illustrates just how inextricable bullets have become from our contemporary Modern landscape.

Taking Aim

Allow me a bit of self-plagiarism as I lay out the foundations of the method used herein.

Unlike many best-of lists, Modern Top 5 seeks to establish parameters that explain its ranking. Grades are given out of 15, with three different metrics being counted out of 5; cards with more points are ranked higher. This system is not without its faults: some metrics are perhaps more important than others when it comes to a card's playability, but the metrics are not weighted; similarly, while doling out numbers removes a degree of subjectivity from the process, the numbers assigned and metrics chosen remain eminently debatable. The system's purpose, then, is less to create a definitive list than to pave the road for a structured debate surrounding the cards' playability in relation to one another.
Modern Top 5: Enablers

Some of the metrics employed across the series have included stickiness, bulk, and resilience. For today's entry, we'll fall back on the same three metrics as the first-ever Modern Top 5.

Power: The degree of impact the card tends to have for its cost.
Flexibility: The card's usefulness across diverse situations and game states.
Splashability: The ease with which Modern decks can accommodate the card.

Power and flexibility will be rated by considering both a card's floor (the least it will do) and its ceiling (its best-case scenario). For example, Lightning Bolt's power floor is higher than Fatal Push's, as Push is dead when opponents have no creatures while Bolt can go to the face.
Splashability will be rated by considering how many existing Modern decks can accommodate the card and whether they'll want it. For example, despite its lack of a color identity, Ghost Quarter doesn't fit into BGx midrange decks. These decks can easily run Fulminator Mage as mana disruption instead, and prefer not to miss a land drop if they don't have to.
Modern Top 5: Utility Cards

Now that the method's been established, it's time to lock 'n load!

#5: Sanctifier en-Vec

There was an error retrieving a chart for Sanctifier en-Vec

Power: 4

Here's what I had to say about Rest in Peace three years ago:

The only card here to earn a 5 in this category, Rest in Peace is great at virtually all stages of the game. Speed bump effects like Nihil Spellbomb and Relic of Progenitus let opponents rebuild after nuking the graveyard; similar hosers like Leyline of the Void are often too slow to have any real impact if cast later. Rest in Peace is really two cards in one, nuking the graveyard when it resolves and then preventing further abuse until dealt with. For its two-mana cost, this double-spell effect is a steal.
Modern Top 5: Hosers

Sanctifier en-Vec is quite similar, but boasts a 2/2 body to boot. That means it can apply pressure, and without even dying to Lightning Bolt thanks to protection from red! Since we're not rating on stickiness this time around, we'll ignore the pros and cons of being a creature in favor of the actual impact of its effect. While Sanctifier often does a great Rest in Peace impression, it's not quite as unequivocal, as it only affects red and black cards. This power nerf could prove beneficial in the right deck (say, one that's looking to continue looping lands with Wrenn and Six while not outright losing to Dredge).

Flexibility: 3

Here's where being a creature really plays to Sanctifier's points count. Rest in Peace is dead in multiples barring opponents having an answer, and even then, the second copy is often less impactful than the first (which had a gang of graveyard cards to exile). But another 2/2 to smack opponents around with while they scramble to get their disrupted gameplan in order? Can't complain.

Splashability: 1

Natch, Sanctifier can't be played in shells that want to abuse black and red graveyard effects. Its most damning trait, though, is the double-white cost. Very few Modern decks can swing that, and the ones that can may prefer something stickier to deal with graveyards (such as Rest in Peace in UW Control). All that boils down to an excellent role-player for a small subset of decks, most notable among them 2021 metagame champion Hammer Time, which packs the full four copies.

Overall: 8/15

#4: Endurance

There was an error retrieving a chart for Endurance

Power: 4

In "MH2 Overview, Pt. 2: Playing the Part," I wrote of Endurance that "its effect is the narrowest of the [pitch cycle], but still quite impactful when it matters: putting the graveyard on the bottom of the library is somewhat better than exiling it, where players still retain some degree of access to the cards. And doing so for free at instant speed will blow out a bevy of Modern combos so long as players draw into Endurance before that critical turn." By now, the Elemental has made a name for itself in Modern doing just that.

Flexibility: 3

Offering a Ravenous Trap-type effect for 1GG or two cards in hand would never be worth a precious sideboard slot. After all, we have Ravenous Trap. But Endurance shares with its Elemental cohorts the "mode" of coming down as a creature, and a bulky 3/4 at that. Best of all, it has reach and flash, letting [card]Endurance[/card[ come down for the full 1GG cost to take out pesky fliers like Channeler.

Splashability: 2

1GG isn't the easiest to splash, and the condition of having a spare green card is also tough for most decks to meet. Since Endurance can be cast for either cost and is already in the color best suited to splashing, it gains a point over Sanctifier, but still leaves much to be desired on this front. Modern's better for it—imagine every deck packing 4 of these!

Overall: 9/15

#3: Alpine Moon

There was an error retrieving a chart for Alpine Moon

Power: 2

Okay, so Alpine Moon has a pretty high ceiling: opponent plays Urza's Saga on turn two; cast Alpine as a one-mana Stone Rain that invalidates future copies of the enchantment land. But that ceiling is almost never reached. Players often wait to throw out their Sagas until they can pay to generate Construct tokens, whereas destroying a land is best in the early game, and that's only when the exact cards line up perfectly.

Most of the time, Alpine plays out like a Pithing Needle for lands with some extra upside. Which isn't much to write home about, but absolutely can turn the tide of a game.

Flexibility: 3

The opportunity cost of running one Alpine Moon in the sideboard is outrageously low. That's because in addition to being insane against one of Modern's pillars, Alpine has a purpose in so many matchups. It can shut down critical manlands like Celestial Colonnade, take apart the mana engines of Tron and Eldrazi decks, or brutalize opponents depending on Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle.

Splashability: 5

Red is the most popular color in the format. It's got the hot new removal spell in Unholy Heat and the hot new creature in Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer. And best of all, even the menace of Blood Moon does nothing to stop one from casting Alpine Moon, something that gives red cards the edge in discussions surrounding splashability. At a single mana, Alpine couldn't offer much more.

Overall: 10/15

#2: Dress Down

There was an error retrieving a chart for Dress Down

Power: 4

Dress Down has some very obvious applications in trading for "half a card," in the same way that Surgical Extraction often catches a bad rap for: Extract the Snapcaster Mage target and you're left to face the 2/1 body. Alternately, casting Dress also stops Snap's ETB, but for two mana instead of zero. Pilots get to draw a card, though, which puts them up by... well, half a card. Math! And Down can stop all sorts of ETBs, not just graveyard-reliant ones. Against something like Omnath, Locus of Creation, it turns off the 4/4 for the entire turn, negating not just the cantrip but any value to be gained from making land drops that turn.

Two mana for half a card of advantage? On that front, I'd call Dress vs. Surgical something of a wash. But Dress starts reeling in the power points when it comes to the incredible value it nets against many of Modern's most popular cards. You could plop this down in combat and kill a swinging Goyf with your blocking 1/1. Or at any time to kill an existing Territorial Kavu. Or a board of four existing Urza's Saga Construct tokens. For existing! Talk about extreme prejudice.

Flexibility: 4

Stopping combo turns; sapping value; killing Constructs. Dress does a lot. And in some decks, it does even more. Grixis Shadow has taken to running a pair not just because of its defensive applications, but because making your Death's Shadow lose all abilities just turns it into a 13/13 for the turn. Roll over, Temur Battle Rage!

What if opponents have no creatures? In that case, Dress simply cycles for 1U. Granted, that's far from a competitive rate, but it ensures the card is never truly dead. At its very worst, Dress is the next card in your deck for two mana.

Splashability: 4

1U is as close to splashable as any non-red-colored card can be. Just ask Goyf. Any blue deck can and will run Dress Down.

Overall: 12/15

#1: Engineered Explosives

There was an error retrieving a chart for Engineered Explosives

Power: 3

At last, we've made it to Modern's current most-played card and latest in a modest lineage of Bolt usurpers. Engineered Explosives is no stranger to this column, either, having clocked in at #4 in "Modern Top 5: Utility Cards." Let's take a look at what was written there to see what's changed, and why Explosives performs better in this nearly unrecognizable iteration of Modern.

Casting and cracking Engineered Explosives is almost always a tempo-negative play—when it can't remove a swarm of tokens, or multiple cards with the same converted mana cost, pilots are all but guaranteed to lose some mana on the exchange. It's also quite rare to encounter Modern decks that reliably produce four distinct colors of mana and play Engineered Explosives.
With all that being said, Explosives is one of the format's few true catch-alls, and it occasionally enables blowouts. Pulse might kill two Goyfs, but it won't kill a Goyf and a Scavenging Ooze. And EE's effect doesn't target, which lets it handle boards full of beefy Bogles.
Modern Top 5: Hosers

"Occasionally enables blowouts," huh? Today, EE does all it used to and much more: a big draw to the card are the frequent blowouts it engineers. Specifically, Explosives is great against gameplans decks base their entire identity around.

Take Urza's Saga, by no coincidence a recurring motif in this article. Saga is so good because it offers a ton of value in one card: two big-to-huge constructs and an artifact from the deck. Maximizing all that value costs pilots a functional six mana as they pay 2 and tap the Saga twice over a couple turns.

Then there's Explosives, which comes down for zero mana and pops for two to kill both Constructs in one fell swoop. If players found themselves pressuring the Saga player beforehand, cleaning up the artifacts in this manner basically puts away the game, as the tempo loss of activating Saga twice for no gain is too great to deny.

Another of Modern's heavy hitters is Cascade, a deck full of three-mana cascade spells that turn into two 4/4s thanks to Crashing Footfalls. Again, EE deals with both Rhinos for just the price of popping itself.

It's fair to say that Explosives tends to be underwhelming on rate against nontoken permanents, where it charges two mana more than whatever the target cost. But there are still instances where it can take out two or three permanents that skew the math.

Flexibility: 5

Explosives isn't only great against decks pumping out huge tokens. Look at UR Murktide, whose early leads from Ragavans and Channelers put away plenty of games. Explosives is just good ol' Explosives in that matchup: a card that doesn't necessarily perform much better than it did in 2017, but that most players will be happy to have at the party regardless.

Speaking of Ragavan, EE on zero wipes out every Treasure token on the battlefield, giving EE additional stock against decks that run both the Monkey and the colorless land, like Jund or Temur Saga. On that note, very few cheap removal spells also boast the ability to take out huge boards of threats. And has anyone else noticed the rise of Chalice of the Void to combat Cascade and Murktide? EE handily dispatches of any Chalices on one.

To wit, the card was already quite flexible, and that dimension only improves with the increased blowout potential of today's Modern.

Splashability: 5

Once upon a time, Explosives got only 3 points on this metric:

Color-light decks like Tron and Skred, as well as mana-light decks like Burn and Death's Shadow, can't splash Engineered Explosives. The artifact limits itself mostly to three-color midrange decks (although some two-color decks can also play it profitably). In those, it's a staple. It even gives certain wedges and shards the ability to destroy permanents they would normally squirm against, like Tarmogoyf against Temur or Rest in Peace against Grixis. Thanks to the card's high flexibility, even decks with in-color removal for everything, like Abzan, are liable to run a copy or two.
Modern Top 5: Utility Cards

How things have changed! "Color-light decks like Tron and Skred" find themselves in short supply these days, and the upside of hitting Saga tokens and the like make Explosives an attractive option even for those that do exist. Everybody and their mama sleeves up EE these days—by which I mean a cool 40% of the format.

Overall: 13/15

Bullet for My (Belated) Valentine

Bolt will bounce back, and soon. But EE's little upset nonetheless tells us a lot about how favored it is to interact using bullets in Modern. Thus concludes our deep dive on Modern bullets. Have some favorites I've missed? Hit me up in the comments. Until then, may you leave your opponent's strategy full of smoking holes!

The Dark Spikes and Beating the Rudy Effect

Posted on February 21, 2022February 21, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Two weeks ago I had authored an article paying tribute to a flavorful, macabre set out of genuine appreciation. That set, of course, was The Dark.

While the column was generally well received, I noticed some discussion afterwards, on various social media platforms, about a video created by Rudy of Alpha Investments. The title of the video, which was posted on January 17^th, is “2022 – The Dark – Leads the Market Higher.” Throughout the video, Rudy touts the investible qualities of the set.

Given his 338K subscribers, it’s no surprise that his video created significant waves in the market, spiking Reserved List The Dark cards left and right. When I wrote my article, I didn’t realize Rudy had posted this influential video—my timing, therefore, was poor. How could I encourage folks to explore this under-appreciated set if it had just received the buyout treatment?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Frankenstein's Monster

Therefore, I would like to double back and clarify a few things.

Be Wary of Rudy-Fueled Buyouts

When Rudy highlights a given set or product, the price moves. You could call it the “Rudy effect.” If you’re already holding cards he’s touting, then you’ve just been given a gift! You can expect to be able to sell those cards for north of their recent market prices. Whether your preferred platform for selling is eBay, TCGplayer, Facebook, or buylists, you will have an opportunity to cash out at a premium. Congrats!

If you don’t have the cards he’s talking about most recently, then the Rudy effect puts you into a bit of a pickle. Do you embrace the FOMO and purchase the trending cards in question despite the price spike? Or, do you have to wait a long time before you can acquire these cards at reasonable prices?

My advice is to stick with the latter. It can be frustrating to wait weeks or even months to obtain cards you want for a deck, but let’s face it—Rudy tends to push cards on the Reserved List, printed before 2000. At this point, you’ve had years to acquire these cards. If you hadn’t prioritized them thus far, then waiting another couple months won’t hurt too badly.

How am I so confident prices will retrace back toward a more normal level? Simple: history repeats itself!

A Couple Previous Examples

We’ve seen this film multiple times before. I vaguely recall (though admittedly can’t track down the video) when Rudy not-so-subtly alluded to City in a Bottle, Golgothian Sylex, and to a lesser extent, Apocalypse Chime for their common ability of destroying all cards from a given set. It wasn’t long afterward when we saw Sylex and Chime both spike on MTG Stocks. This would have been in summer 2020, and you can see from their charts that both cards spiked at the same time.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Golgothian Sylex

There was an error retrieving a chart for Apocalypse Chime

Let’s focus on Golgothian Sylex as our case study. Observe how the card spiked over $150 for a minute, and then declined almost as sharply as it rose. I remember cashing out my copy at this time, selling to Card Kingdom’s ever-dynamic (and aggressive) buylist. I felt a little seller’s remorse at the time, as I really do appreciate the card. However, after the price tumbled back down, I was able to pick up a replacement copy for less than my sale price!

Interestingly, I was able to find another Rudy video where someone wrote him and revealed their attempt to buy out the market of Golgothian Sylex. While they didn’t succeed in clearing out the market, I do have to wonder if their action permanently increased the baseline price for the card. Prior to its spike, the card was worth $15-$20. Nowadays it’s worth nearly $50. Then again, that may have been the natural price appreciation that would have occurred had the buyout not happened.

One thing is for sure, though: buying cards during these spikes can lead to financial losses. Patience prevails.

The shape of the curve for Apocalypse Chime is similar, but the numbers are much smaller. Still, this is a Homelands cards we’re talking about, so the buyout is almost laughable in nature. After spiking from $0.75 to over $10, the card rapidly declined toward $3 or so. It looks like it made another run a few months later, failed to hit new highs, and is once again on the decline.

Shifting Back to The Dark

The examples above were the quickest to come to mind, but I’m sure there are others throughout the years of Alpha Investments content. While the long-term prospects for Magic’s oldest sets remain strong, I remain doubtful that one can artificially short-cut the gradual growth these cards are expected to get (at least, not without a major bankroll).

Shifting focus to The Dark, a couple noteworthy cards are worth discussion.

First, there’s City of Shadows, which I mentioned in my article a couple weeks ago. Somehow, this has become the most valuable card from the set. I don’t know if it sees a whole lot of play, but here we are looking at a “$200” land that doesn’t even tap for mana until you sacrifice a creature to it.

Right off the bat, I question that $200 valuation. That seems to me like some deliberate price manipulation of MTG Stocks’ algorithm. I see a couple lightly played copies sold for around $120 last week, and then the most recently sold was a near mint copy for $224.97.

Call me a skeptic, but this has buyout written all over it, and I wouldn’t pay anything north of $100 for a lightly played to near mint copy. At the very least, you can pick up VG copies from Card Kingdom for $111.99, but even that price point sounds too high. Moderately played copies are in the mid-$70’s on TCGplayer, and if you’re feeling like gambling on the damaged lottery you could always grab that $55 copy.

But your best bet is to hold off on this one. These spikes never stick. This isn’t a tier one Old School playable card from Arabian Nights here. City in a Bottle is the real deal. City of Shadows… less so.

There was an error retrieving a chart for City of Shadows

The other noteworthy The Dark card on the move is Frankenstein's Monster. I mentioned this one as well in my article from a couple weeks back. I love the real-world literature reference of this card. While it gets a 10/10 for flavor and 10/10 for grotesque art, it gets a much lower rating for playability. That didn’t stop the card from spiking north of $60 recently, however.

Frankenstein's Monster appears to be ahead of City of Shadows in its pricing trend, because this card has already begun its decline on MTG Stocks. I expect a significant reversal on this card’s price. Before the recent spike, this was trending in the mid-$20’s. I don’t think it’ll see numbers that low again simply due to price memory (and people not willing to sell for a loss), but I would not be surprised to see this settle about $10 higher, in the $35 range.

Wrapping It Up

If other cards from The Dark follow suit, make sure you keep your emotions in check and avoid the FOMO. We’ve seen this movie before—Rudy has the power to move markets, but not always permanently. In the case of The Dark, I believe these price increases will be temporary. You’ll just have to wait a couple months before you can enjoy the aesthetic of the set that I shared two weeks ago.

In the meantime, I can highlight a couple trends that are sticky. I’ve noticed the price on many Alpha and Beta rares have climbed—this is reflected in Card Kingdom’s buy prices, which go up almost once per week on any cards of which they remain low our out of stock. Ones I pay particular attention to include Beta Copy Artifact, Braingeyser, and Zombie Master. I also recently picked up a Beta Gaea's Liege, and I had to scramble to catch a Card Kingdom restock because they had been selling out of this one.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gaea's Liege

A subset of Arabian Nights also remains resilient. Some cards like Aladdin and Aladdin's Lamp have pulled back significantly from their highs. But Mountain currently buylists to Card Kingdom for $295 (near mint)—I don’t remember seeing a number that high on the basic land before. Their buy price on Juzam Djinn, Singing Tree, and Island of Wak-Wak also seem strong. These are places I’d rather be parking my resources instead of over-hyped The Dark un-playables.

Of course it’s a matter of personal preference, but assuming you have a shred of patience, your best bet is to avoid spiking The Dark cards for the time being. Don’t chase the Rudy hype, and you’ll be one step closer to saving or making money from this fantastic collectible card game.

Kamigawa Neon Dynasty Arena Prerelease Sealed

Posted on February 18, 2022February 15, 2022 by Adam Cohen

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First Exploration of the New Format

Over the weekend I dove into Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty with my first Sealed event on Arena. In this video, I walk through my process of building a deck for Sealed, including basic card evaluation, settling on colors, making cuts, and tweaking the mana base. I then pilot the finished deck through some games.

Perhaps an obvious observation, but the cycle of mythic dragon spirits are all overwhelmingly powerful. They're large, evasive threats that can close a game out on their own. Moreover, they provide additional value in the event your opponent can deal with them, putting you even further ahead. If you have them in your pool and can feasibly afford to play them, you do so. Unfortunately, I couldn't work Kairi, the Swirling Sky into the final version of the deck, but I certainly tried during my deck construction.

Thankfully, that wasn't the only strong rare in my pool. Ogre-Head Helm does an incredible Skullclamp impression, buffing a creature enough to swing in, and forcing your opponent to either make bad blocks, or let you draw 3 cards. At its base, it enables artifact-matters synergies as well as modified synergies while being particularly pesky to remove. As you'll see, Helm carried me to several victories over the course of the run.

Another card I'd like to highlight is Invigorating Hot Spring. The card is a house, and enables your modified payoffs by disbursing +1/+1 counters to up to four creatures. It also makes for explosive curve-outs, discounting the cost for Walking Skyscraper, then letting you attack with it as a 9/9 haste trampler.

From my first impressions, it seems that a lot of power in this set rests in the commons and uncommons--a welcome change from VOW limited. I'm looking forward to exploring the format more going forward.

The Deck

Below is the version of the deck I settled on. In retrospect, I'd probably change my land count to 10 Mountains and seven Forests. It was more essential to have early access to red than green. Overall, I'm happy with how the deck came together.

Untitled Deck

Creatures

2 Akki Ronin

1 Ogre-Head Helm

2 Sokenzan Smelter

1 Jukai Trainee

1 Orochi Merge-Keeper

1 Automated Artificer

1 Go-Shintai of Ancient Wars

2 Peerless Samurai

1 Scrapyard Steelbreaker

1 Towashi Guide-Bot

1 Walking Skyscraper

Artifacts

1 Experimental Synthesizer

1 Ninja's Kunai

Enchantments

1 Tempered in Solitude

1 Teachings of the Kirin

1 Careful Cultivation

1 Invigorating Hot Spring

Spells

1 Voltage Surge

2 Seismic Wave

Lands

8 Mountain

9 Forest

For more on evaluating cards for Limited and building a sealed deck, check out Paul's article from last week. How was your Prerelease? What cards did you enjoy playing in Sealed? Let me know in the comments or on Twitter: @AdamECohen.

An Explanation of the Alta Fox/Hasbro Board Fight

Posted on February 18, 2022February 18, 2022 by Paul Comeau

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The Battle to Control Hasbro, Wizards of the Coast, and Magic's Future

This week, Alta Fox Capital released a letter to Hasbro shareholders nominating five candidates to the company's Board of Directors. Alta Fox believes Hasbro "is severely undervalued and a perpetual underperformer due to its ineffective 'Brand Blueprint' strategy, flawed corporate structure and consistent misallocation of capital."

The move comes after what Alta Fox describes in the statement as "Years of disappointing results, poor governance and questionable disclosure practices under the 'Brand Blueprint' strategy."

Who Is Alta Fox Capital?

Alta Fox Capital is an alternative asset management firm that identifies itself as a "top 10 shareholder" in Hasbro. According to CNBC, they have a 2.5% stake in the company worth around $325 million.

What Is Alta Fox's Position?

In addition to its move to put friendly members on the board, Alta Fox is calling for Hasbro to spin off Wizards of the Coast into a separate company. It believes Wizards is the strongest performing part of Hasbro, and has a business model quite different from Hasbro's traditional toy and entertainment segments.

In a 100-page investor presentation, Alta Fox says it is partly this misunderstanding of Wizards' model, combined with what they describe as "poor disclosure and investor messaging" on the part of Hasbro, that has led to Wizards being "significantly undervalued" within the company as a whole. "We believe the Board’s poor financial transparency with investors has resulted in low consolidated multiples being ascribed to Hasbro’s entire business," they write.

Wizards Without Hasbro?

It's almost impossible at this point to imagine Wizards of the Coast without Hasbro. Hasbro purchased the then independent company in September 1999 for $325 million, and has overseen them for more than two decades. In fact, Wizards has become a key verticle of Hasbro's business, one that is arguably propping up the parent company. In their "Hasbro, Let Wizards Go" video, Alta Fox's Connor Haley says that his group estimates Wizards of the Coast makes up approximately 71% of Hasbro's intrinsic value. Alta Fox's Investor presentation sums up their view of Wizards as follows:

We believe WOTC is an exceptionally high-
quality business with strong network effects,
pricing power, and a long growth runway.
Alta Fox "Free The Wizards" Investor Presentation

Why Spin Off Wizards?

Part of the problem Alta Fox cites as an example of the current Board of Director's mismanagement is their belief that the Board "runs WOTC like a cash cow and reinvests its cash flow into funding highly speculative investments," rather than investing that money back into the company. They provide several examples of these speculative investments in their Investor Presentation. These include the purchase of outside companies and the use of Wizards resources to develop other Hasbro-owned IP projects:

Alta Fox "Free The Wizards" Investor Presentation pg 64

"We believe the Board’s obsession with Hasbro’s lower quality Consumer business has plagued WOTC’s ability to invest in the long-term health of its brands," Alta Fox writes.

Alta Fox argues that in addition to this gross mismanagement, change in leadership is needed at the top to address excessive executive compensation that has come at the expense of the health of the company, and of its shareholders. Alta Fox contends that in the last five years alone, while the company was underperforming, Hasbro "senior leadership and directors…received more than $180 million in compensation…exceed[ing] that paid to the board of directors of Apple, Inc. and many other world-class companies of greater scale and with superior results."

Who Are These Board Nominees?

With the goal of a spin-off of Wizards in mind, Alta Fox seeks to put five nominees on the Hasbro Board. Most notable among these nominees are Matthew Calkins, founder and CEO of enterprise software company Appian and an award-winning board game designer, and another man who perhaps needs no introduction:

I’m excited to have been nominated by @AltaFoxCapital to be a director for the @Hasbro board. As a lifelong Magic player, I’ve appreciated what WotC has built while also seeing what could be improved. We’d love to hear your ideas too. Visit https://t.co/ONNNXa2d0d pic.twitter.com/fD665YkEK7

— Jon Finkel (@Jonnymagic00) February 17, 2022

There was a time when Jon Finkel was the face of the Magic Pro Tour, and he's immortalized on the original printing of the card Shadowmage Infiltrator. A Hall of Famer, and arguably the best player ever to play the game, Finkel pivoted from his success in Magic into a successful career as a managing partner at an investment firm. Of all the nominees put forth by Alta Fox, Finkel is the clear face of the movement. His involvement is sure to resonate strongly with players.

What Is Alta Fox's Plan?

The primary push from Alta Fox is to spin Wizards off as a separate company. In addition to that stated goal, the rest of their stated goals on their website https://freethewizards.com/our-ideas/ include:

Replacing the failed "Brand Blueprint" strategy
Improve capital allocation
Reinvest in Wizards' core IP
Realign compensation to performance
Improve disclosure practices

"We believe WOTC’s long-term growth and margin profile would markedly improve as a standalone business," they write.

What Does This Mean for Magic?

According to Alta Fox, "as a standalone entity,...WOTC would be more focused on developing its core IP and have a much clearer path to margin expansion." Alta Fox sees Arena as a central component to achieving these goals. "If executed correctly, we believe Arena could more than double WOTC’s revenues today while continuing to drive growth in paper." In conjunction with a strong focus on Arena, Alta Fox highlights several key areas they see as important to the Wizards customer base. They include:

Reinvest significantly into Arena and listen to customers
Launch multiplayer functionality
Reduce “bugs”
Launch subscription offerings that are more cost effective for customers and improve the experience
Improve transparency and offer a credible solution to the “Historic issue” posed by Alchemy
Improve social functionality, offering chat, streaming, events, and other community-oriented services through Arena
Further integrate paper and digital MTG (i.e. notification of physical events happening near you based on geolocation)
Revival of competitive MTG through a carefully designed, yet simple in-person & online tournament structure

In addition to these corporate changes, and changes to Wizards core IP products like Magic, Alta Fox has other details and ideas they plan to share closer to Hasbro's annual shareholder meeting, which should take place in May 2022.

Reaction to the News

The news of Alta Fox's board nominations have had mixed reactions in the community.

I'd feel more confident investing my time & money if I knew that Jon was involved in the long-term decision making https://t.co/w7t91XpP9t

— Reid Duke (@ReidDuke) February 17, 2022

My initial thoughts on the board of directors fight at Hasbro/WotC is that I don't trust capitalists, period.

I don't trust Hasbro, but I also don't trust that these other guys are better, especially since their presentation seems aimed at A Certain Type of Player.

— Cassie Stole Your Apes (@CassieCeleste) February 17, 2022

Jon on any board involved with Magic would be amazing. Also Hasbro spinning off Wotc is a really good idea. Hasbro's resources undoubtedly helped Magic grow 20 years ago, but now Magic produces enough of its own resources and I dont think Hasbro seems to understand magic well. https://t.co/EdmD09PrBa

— BenS_MTG (@BenS_MTG) February 17, 2022

Look, I know everyone says hedge funds are nine or ten figure monoliths with a fiduciary responsibility to maximize profits even at the long-term expense of a corporation they ostensibly have a position in but what if I like one of the guys involved?

— Patrick Sullivan (@BasicMountain) February 18, 2022

Response from Hasbro

In a press release acknowledging receipt of Alta Fox's letter to shareholders, Hasbro stated that the company "engages in regular communication with its shareholders and welcomes constructive input to further the best interests of all shareholders." They acknowledge having held meetings with Alta Fox regarding the company's business strategy, and say that "The Board and management team believe Hasbro is on the right path to deliver sustainable growth for shareholders."

Closing Thoughts

This is a developing story, and we will likely have to wait until May to hear more concrete details from Alta Fox about their plans and their intentions. I've tried to keep my own opinions out of this, and focus on the facts at hand, but I'm interested to know your opinion. Do you agree with Alta Fox's assessment? What do you think Hasbro/Wizards should do to improve their profitability, and their products?

I've done my best to distill Alta Fox's letter to investors, their Investor presentation, the details on their website, and Hasbro's response into a single article. I'm interested to hear if you found this article helpful, or what I could do to improve it. I may have a follow up as more details become available, and will update this piece with any corrections, or to fill in any accidental omissions that make have occurred on my part trying to condense all this down into a single article. I look forward to reading your comments here and on Twitter.

Layers, Part Three: Type-Changing Effects

Posted on February 17, 2022February 16, 2022 by Andrew Villarrubia

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Unlike text-changing effects, type-changing effects are pretty common. Most Modern players have likely dealt with the effect of Blood Moon or Spreading Seas a few times. This week we'll look at what makes types tick and how modifying them works.

I've Got a Type

To identify a card's supertype(s), type(s), or subtype(s), look at the typeline around the middle of the card, to the left of its set symbol. Everything to the left of a long dash is a supertype or type; anything to the right, a subtype. Each card type has its own set of subtypes, with two exceptions. Creatures and tribals share their subtypes, as do instants and sorceries.

For example, Gingerbrute is an Artifact Creature - Food Golem. Food is its artifact subtype, while Golem is its creature subtype. Go-Shintai of Shared Purpose is a Legendary Enchantment Creature - Shrine. Legendary is its supertype. It has two card types: enchantment and creature. Shrine is its enchantment subtype, and it has no creature type. (I've probably said "Shrine is not a creature type" a few hundred times since the Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty Shrines were spoiled.)

Supertypes

Magic has five supertypes. Legendary, snow, and basic are commonly used. Ongoing has so far only appeared on schemes, a card type in Archenemy supplemental products. The last new card printed with the world supertype is old enough to vote... that supertype hasn't been used since 1996!

Adding or removing a supertype from an object only affects that specific supertype. For instance, activating Arcum's Weathervane's first ability targeting Dark Depths makes Depths a legendary land; removing its snow supertype doesn't affect that legendary supertype at all.

Land Ho!

Modern favorites Blood Moon and Spreading Seas set lands' type to a basic land type. While their implications can seem obvious—"It's a Mountain now, so I can tap it for {R}"—there's a bit more going on under the hood.

305.7. If an effect sets a land’s subtype to one or more of the basic land types, the land no longer has its old land type. It loses all abilities generated from its rules text, its old land types, and any copiable effects affecting that land, and it gains the appropriate mana ability for each new basic land type. Note that this doesn’t remove any abilities that were granted to the land by other effects. Setting a land’s subtype doesn’t add or remove any card types (such as creature) or supertypes (such as basic, legendary, and snow) the land may have. If a land gains one or more land types in addition to its own, it keeps its land types and rules text, and it gains the new land types and mana abilities.
Magic Comprehensive Rules

We'll unpack that wall of text with some examples.

Dryad Arbor under a Blood Moon is still a green creature. But since it's a Mountain instead of a Forest, it taps for {R}, not {G}.

If I activate Inkmoth Nexus in response to a Blood Moon, it will be a Mountain that can tap for {R} and won't have its usual abilities. However, since settings its land subtype doesn't remove abilities from other effects, it'll still have flying and infect until end of turn.

If Dark Depths is in play and then Blood Moon enters, Dark Depths loses its usual abilities and can tap for {R}. However, this doesn't affect its supertypes, so it's still a legendary snow land. It works a little differently if Blood Moon is in play first. In that case, Dark Depths would enter with no counters on it. If Blood Moon were to leave play after that, Dark Depths would immediately trigger and unleash Marit Lage.

Urza's No Good Very Bad Day

Modern pillar Urza's Saga hates Blood Moon. Since Blood Moon makes it a Mountain, it loses all its usual abilities, but still retains the Saga subtype. It's now a Saga with no chapter abilities, meaning its final chapter number is 0. Any number of counters (even 0) on the Saga triggers the following rule:

715.4. If the number of lore counters on a Saga permanent is greater than or equal to its final chapter number, and it isn’t the source of a chapter ability that has triggered but not yet left the stack, that Saga’s controller sacrifices it. This state-based action doesn’t use the stack.
Magic Comprehensive Rules

So Saga is sacrificed immediately.

While the underlying mechanics are a little different (it's in layer 6, not layer 4), Alpine Moon has the same general interaction with Urza's Saga. The Saga loses all abilities, and therefore its positive chapter numbers, and so must be sacrificed.

...And Another Thing

Normally, setting a card's type to something makes it become just that type. For example, Song of the Dryads on Grizzly Bears makes the Bears just a land. However, as with many rules in Magic, there are exceptions.

205.1b Some effects change an object’s card type, supertype, or subtype but specify that the object retains a prior card type, supertype, or subtype. In such cases, all the object’s prior card types, supertypes, and subtypes are retained. This rule applies to effects that use the phrase “in addition to its types” or that state that something is “still a [type, supertype, or subtype].” Some effects state that an object becomes an “artifact creature”; these effects also allow the object to retain all of its prior card types and subtypes. Some effects state that an object becomes a “[creature type or types] artifact creature”; these effects also allow the object to retain all of its prior card types and subtypes other than creature types, but replace any existing creature types.
Magic Comprehensive Rules

Like the above lands rule, this one has several different things going on. Why isn't this broken up into separate rules? Who knows. So, let's dissect it ourselves!

Angelic Destiny enchanting Grizzly Bears makes the Bears a Creature - Bear Angel. Since Angelic Destiny makes it an Angel "in addition to its other types," it applies alongside the creature's normal type, not instead of it.

The same is true of a card like Destiny Spinner. If I target a Forest, it becomes a Land Creature - Elemental Forest. "It's still a land" makes it retain all previous land types and subtypes.

Facts About Artifacts

Making something an "artifact creature" has always been a special case, and we added a new one semi-recently with Throne of Eldraine.

Suit Up targeting Nyxborn Courser makes the Courser an Enchantment Creature - Centaur Scout until end of turn. Since Suit Up makes its target an Artifact Creature, it retains its card types and subtypes.

On the other hand, if I enchant the Courser with Darksteel Mutation, Courser becomes an Enchantment Creature - Insect. Since Darksteel Mutation specifies that the enchanted creature become an "Insect artifact creature," it overwrites any existing creature types.

Cleanup

We've now covered basic type interactions and looked at how some of the quirkier rules around them actually work. Next week I'll make a slight detour from the normal rules-heavy stuff. Join me then for some chatter about tournament policy!

As a reminder, feel free to reach out on Twitter or our Insider Discord with any questions.

Question of the week: What's an all-time-great type-changing effect? (I know it's not Arcum's Weathervane.)

Spicing Up Those New Commander Decks

Posted on February 17, 2022February 16, 2022 by Joe Mauri

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This is a follow-up to my article from last week here.

Did you all have fun at your pre-release events? I had a blast! Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty is definitely a spicy set full of returning mechanics and some very decent new ones. The new Commander decks are interesting and I've been playing them using some helpful Magic software. Here are a few modifications I think you may want to consider!

Let's Start with Chishiro

Honestly, the deck runs fine as is. Any significant upgrades will bring the power level up to consistently end the game faster so be mindful of your local expectations. Stuffing the deck with Berserk effects, double strike, and extra combat steps is definitely one way you could run it. I also considered making it a Bard Class-based deck, running a ton of legendary creatures like Borborygmos, but that would drastically change the deck makeup and I think there's a more fun way to go. My version is all about keywords: proliferate, evolve, and graft.

Keywords to Add!

Proliferate is definitely a deck archetype that gets a fair amount of love but usually, that love is mostly blue. Here I wanted to make sure I consider a card like Volt Charge just due to that fact. If you're going for more of a token angle consider Plaguemaw Beast who will have a steady stream of sacrifices to fuel the rest of your army. Obviously proliferate is great with Planeswalkers and Domri Rade is an inexpensive potential include if you're going more walker-heavy.

Thematic Ramp vs Generic Ramp

There are several ramp spells I would like to recommend instead of boring, staple cards like Kodama's Reach. I understand that Reach is very good, I rate it very highly, it's definitely a strong ramp spell in green. However, why not try out Grafted Growth from Neon Dynasty instead? It gets you a 2/2 just for casting it if your commander is out, then it gets you a +1/+1 counter to start your modification. Finally, it does not cost full mana. That's a triple threat and it's a common. On the same wavelength are cards like Nature's Embrace and New Horizons which are basically additional copies of Grafted. Each of these cards has tremendous synergy with your commander and ramps you!

Operation Protect Chishiro

Next, to really secure your control of the mid-game you will want to run a few low mana "save Chisiro" style effects. Remember, you're a bit vulnerable to timely disruption. If you wait for one more turn and have a save in hand you're likely to continue growing without issue. Unless there is significant pressure, don't feel the need to go completely all in every turn for acceleration. Chishiro is already breaking the sound barrier, no need to exceed the speed of light as well!

Just More Huge Value

After a board wipe, it's time for you to recover. Not to worry! Not only does Chishiro come stock with cards like Bear Umbra and Genesis Hydra it has tremendous synergy with other cards that help rebuild your board.

A Phylath, World Sculptor, or Avenger of Zendikar both refill your board and can go completely out of control with Chishiro or without. Consider them synergy and stability all in one. Likewise, Halana and Alena, Parners is sort of another copy of your commander. Another haste effect and just a powerful, synergistic card for only four mana. It's almost like I suggested watching out for this card.

Biogenic Ooze likewise rebuilds and grows all on its own or turbo grows with your commander.

A Few Additional Considerations

I found room for these cards depending on how I was shaping the deck. If I was a little more token-heavy, both Curses are insane power. For a little more "one punch man" style, Savageborn Hydra was a huge threat. Did I need a little more value? Scurry Oak could perform two roles at once. While the Curses are extremely good, I have played them a ton in other decks I'm looking for a different experience. This is also why I chose not run Contagion Engine, Contagion Clasp, or Sword of Truth and Justice. I mention them because they are obviously good for a proliferate heavy archetype, but I play them in other decks so I'm trying something a little different.

Still, that's one of the best things I find about this commander. You really can play Upgrades Unleashed in a bunch of different ways and modify the deck to achieve a very specific yet synergistic goal. I know I did not spend much time talking about what to remove and that's the point. Pick a pivot point for your version and you will know what to keep and what to toss.

This is really one of my favorite pre-made decks so I applaud Wizards here. That said, they also made this other one...

Buckle Up, It's Gonna be a Bumpy Ride

Kotori, Pilot Prodigy, on the other hand, is a mess. I took a look at some other deckbuilders' plans for modifying Kotori and I wanted to highlight one particular article by Zach Herwood-Mussen. After reading Zach's article, I can see he did his absolute best at salvaging the situation by suggesting the inclusion of Aetherflux Reservoir, and what I would call a bunch of non-thematic staple cards.

Why This Isn't For Me

So the combo is "simple" - turn Aetherflux into a creature with Cyberdrive Awakener give it lifelink from Kotori, then proceed to activate the deal 50 damage ability of Reservoir - since it has lifelink you gain 50 life each time thus you can machine-gun absolutely everything. Game. Over. While this is devastating in terms of the effect, it's not without problems. It relies on drawing the cards because of the lack of tutoring in the deck and requires gaining 11 life before activating (admittedly, not a difficult feat).

I would suggest you die to any direct damage effect with the damage trigger on the stack, or your hidden wincon is put multiple turns behind by taking any amount of combat damage. Ever. But there is something beyond this just being an extremely awkward combo in the back of your deck's pocket and it relates back to my article on The Heart of Commander.

Why bother playing Kotori if you're going to kill people with Aetherflux Reservoir, a card that has no trouble winning games? Heck, it's the primary wincon in a deck I list here. It's a great card for competitive Commander. Why turn Kotori into a slow combo deck that is not powerful? Props to Zach for creative thinking but in my opinion, it lacks in both the flavor department and the power department. For the same reason, I would not recommend using Test of Endurance or Felidar Sovereign in Kotori decks even though your commander will likely give you enough life to make those wincons live just by casting them.

No, as I said in my original evaluation of these decks, I wanted to give Kotori a fair shot as a primarily Vehicle based deck.

First Things First, Fix the Lack of Haste

On top of fixing the lack of haste effects, you gain a couple of ways to protect Kotori - at least until they pilot something. Furthermore, the deck has an overall lack of Artifacts and this is a solid way to increase your count.

Speaking of Increasing Artifact Count

The fact that not even a single Artifact Land was included with this deck is a major letdown. With keywords like metalcraft, affinity, and improvise you would expect the deck would be jam-packed but it's too light. These lands help.

Why is Consulate Dreadnought NOT in Kotori?

Follow me here. Turn one, Plains, Sol Ring, Consulate Dreadnought, Turn two. Island, cast Kotori, crew Dreadnought oh thank heaven it's a 7/11 with vigilance and lifelink! It is mind-boggling that the card is not included in this deck. There is no advantage to using Kotori as a commander if you cannot get down Vehicles in turn one or two, to then pilot on turn three. The base deck is extremely lacking in this area.

Out of the 15 original Vehicles in the deck, only ONE has an ability with a *large* turn three upside and that would be Colossal Plow. There are only three other two mana or less Vehicles, but two of them have actively bad abilities to use early. Smuggler's Copter might be useful, but because of how early it is you might not need or want to filter yet. Still, if you suggest that the Copter is always worth looting with, especially since the deck has so much graveyard recursion, that's still only two out of 15 Vehicles! Further, since the deck has no means of generating haste, all your larger vehicles are stuck waiting that additional turn before they can activate!

But wait, you might say, are there other Vehicles that should be in this deck? Yes.

Very Rare Vehicles

I understand that Wizards wants to sell more packs but come on. These are perfect includes for a Vehicle-based Kotori deck and instead of them, we get...Access Denied - an extremely expensive sort of on theme counterspell? Yuck, I say! Considering other Vehicles from Kaldheim made the cut, it's baffling that Cosima is missing. It is useful on both sides and was one of the first cards I added to my digital version for testing. It has proven to be excellent for multiplayer. Sometimes the best source of answers and threats is from the decks of your fellow players and this patches holes in this deck.

The Office of Redundancy Office

There are too many redundant cards for effects that you do not want or need. Out of Hanna, Ship's Navigator, Ironsoul Enforcer, Imperial Recovery Unit, Emry, Lurker of the Loch, Teshar, Ancestor's Apostle, and Dance of the Manse, I think the deck has far too much overlap on recursion. On top of that, they are not all Artifacts. I cut Hanna, Apostle, and Dance. There's also the Dermotaxi angle - if I'm going to use that card (I'm trying it out) recursion becomes a little less valuable.

Medium Rare is not Just About Steak

Raff Capashen, Ship's Mage is a way to give your Vehicles pseudo-haste one turn later. It's just so situational I don't understand why it was included in the deck. This was an easy cut for me. Shimmer Myr is the same. Just doing nothing is great if you have a lot of counterspells and a reactive style deck but it does not serve a Vehicle deck that wants to be attacking.

Armed and Armored is already not great in the stock version of Buckle Up. After increasing the Vehicle count to what I consider to be the maximum (about twenty) it still was unneeded.

A Fair Amount of Synergy

Digsite Engineer is great because it's just pure value. It makes pilots for your Vehicles, but also, those pilots will eventually become massive creatures on their own! Cosmos Elixir makes the lifelink feature of Kotori turn into card draw. Pair card draw up with affinity, and you can play a ton of permanents. Drawing lots of cards, gaining life, and making permanents is at least a start. However, that is where it also ends for the Pilot Prodigy.

Shorikai, Genesis Engine

I did not get in as many games as I wanted with Shorikai, Genesis Engine as the commander. Additionally, I wanted to play it as the commander of Buckle Up with no changes. Here, more things in the deck made sense. Since you're using the draw/discard ability of Shorikai, you're putting things into the graveyard to recur later. Also, you're filtering out all the redundant effects you draw. Your commander is a little less vulnerable to random removal because it's not a creature and it has its own strategy.

This was supposed to be the commander. I'm not going to say this made the deck significantly better, but, it had a solution for the "one-third" problem I mentioned previously. Shorikai filters your draws so you're extremely likely to hit Land if you need it, get pilots if you need them, get recursion when you need it, and not draw cards you do not need. I think Shorikai will find itself being used for draw/discard shenanigans. It also has tremendous synergy with some sweet artifacts like Unwinding Clock and Voltaic Key, allowing you to do some really unfair and powerful things like use Dramatic Reversal and Isochron Scepter. It's a completely different deck archetype and doesn't care about the Vehicle angle at all. I would bet that this is how you are going to see Shorikai in Commander. Kotori? Not so much.

Kamigawa Neon Dynasty Commander Decks - Yay or Nay?

I have to say yay. The Chishiro games were worth the price of admission and I'm going to continue to work on that deck as my Gruul Commander. Kotori? No. I played over a dozen games, iterating on it and trying my best to stick to a theme. In the end? I give up. Don't be like me! Try using Shorikai as your commander right out of the box - I bet your games will be a lot more enjoyable and I know that your future additions for Shorikai will be a lot more powerful, thematic, and ultimately fun!

20 Colorless Cards to Mine from Bulk

Posted on February 16, 2022February 15, 2022 by David Schumann

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My last article focused on some of the gold cards to pull from bulk. I set the rules for this series at TCGMid of more than $1.49, but less than $5. This week's article covers colorless cards.

When I started playing, "colorless" would have exclusively meant artifacts, but ever since Wizards printed Ghostflame, that definition had to change... the Eldrazi really expanded it! As always, this list will not be inclusive of all the cards that match the criteria, but instead focus on the lesser-known ones that do. For instance, many incarnations of Sol Ring meet our requirements, but Ring is a tad obvious. This week's list was bumped up to 20 as we've got tons of juicy targets to explore. Let's get to it!

No Colors, No Problem

1. Soul-Guide Lantern

Soul-Guide Lantern - Given this card only recently rotated out of standard, it is surprising to see it on the list so soon. However, considering that it's mostly an upgraded Relic of Progenitus (which was a $5 common at one point), its price is likely to rise once in-person events begin and people need copies to fetch with Urza's Saga. Unlike Relic, Lantern notably only affects opponents, so players running Tarmogoyf and the like are happy to include it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Soul-Guide Lantern

2. Talisman of Hierarchy, Conviction, and Creativity

The Mirrodin talisman cycle has been on my bulk pick list for a while, with the Dimir, Rakdos, and Azorius ones being worth a fair amount. It is not surprising that the enemy ones would also quickly rise out of the "bulk" category. They are still technically in print, so there is some risk there. However, I have to imagine we are at the tail end of the overall print run for Modern Horizons 2. None of the green ones made this list because Commander decks that run green tend to not need Talismans (green provides the necessary mana fixing).

There was an error retrieving a chart for Talisman of Hierarchy

There was an error retrieving a chart for Talisman of Conviction

There was an error retrieving a chart for Talisman of Creativity

3. Swiftfoot Boots

Swiftfoot Boots was often considered a budget version of Lightning Greaves. Still, in a format that prizes redundancy but is restricted to singleton copies, even budget versions are destined to become staples.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Swiftfoot Boots

4. Memnite

Memnite's value is often closely tied to whether or not there is a really powerful artifact -hemed deck in Modern, or one that really needs to cast threats quickly. Thanks to Hammertime, we currently meet that requirement. Should the deck fall out of favor, expect Memnite's price to begin a descent.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Memnite

5. Whispersilk Cloak

As with Swiftfoot Boots, many Commander decks need to protect their commanders to operate as intended. Whispersilk Cloak does that and also plays well with commanders intent on attacking. Multiple versions of this card meet our criteria, so pull all of them!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Whispersilk Cloak

6. Colossus Hammer

Arguably the most important card in the Hammertime modern deck, this card has no slightly worse options, and will remain a key card in that archetype until it loses an important card or two or a better equipment is printed.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Colossus Hammer

7. Wayfarer's Bauble

I have been selling copies of Wayfarer's Bauble on TCGPlayer for over 2 years, and have never had to buy a copy at more than bulk. It is pretty inconspicuous for a common, but one of the most efficient land ramp artifacts for decks without green.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Wayfarer's Bauble

8. Springleaf Drum

Another modern card whose price is heavily dependent on the metagame; not surprisingly, this one is also in the Hammertime deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Springleaf Drum

9. Grafted Exoskeleton

With so few ways to remove or stop poison, the ability to give any creature infect, especially ones that damage multiple players at once, is extremely powerful and highly desirable in Commander. Given how broken of a mechanic infect it, we don't see many new cards referencing it, so Grafted Exoskeleton is likely going to continue gaining value barring any reprints.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Grafted Exoskeleton

10. Plague Myr

Speaking of infect, Plague Myr is a mediocre mana dork who happens to have infect stapled onto it, which is indeed enough to make the list.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plague Myr

11. Trailblazer's Boots

Trailblazer's Boots is a pet card of mine that I have run in Commander decks since I started playing the format back in 2009. Given a prevalence of non-basics in most Commander decks, this equipment essentially makes a creature unblockable for very low cost.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Trailblazer's Boots

12. Honor-Worn Shaku

While there are no shortage of mana rocks to choose from in Commander, there are very few that can untap multiple times in a turn, and Honor-Worn Shaku is among them.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Honor-Worn Shaku

13. Not of This World

Free counterspells are free counterspells, and while Not of This World may be limited in scope, it is still plenty powerful.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Not of This World

14. Geth's Grimoire

A must-include in any discard-based Commander deck that happens to spike every time some new one comes out.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Geth's Grimoire

15. Genesis Chamber

While card]Genesis Chamber[/card]'s effect is symmetrical, decks that would play this card tend to find ways to take more advantage of it.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Genesis Chamber

16. Geode Golem

Unlike the others on this list, Geode Golem is a Commander 2018 exclusive and was only included in two of the decks, so one is unlikely to hit a stack of them in bulk. Still, knowing it is almost $3 means finding one copy in a stack of 1000 cards puts you at at break-even.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Geode Golem

17. Pathrazer of Ulamog

While a lot of focus jas always been on the three big Eldrazi from Rise of the Eldrazi, any creature with Annihilator on it has potential simply off the back of how powerful of a mechanic it is.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pathrazer of Ulamog

18. Coldsteel Heart

There aren't many 2-cost mana rocks to choose from and this one has very little downside. It is also one of very few that provides snow mana, which thanks to Kaldheim and Modern Horizons 2 has some serious upsides.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Coldsteel Heart

19. Cloak and Dagger

We saw the Rogues archetype in standard not too long ago and, with the printing of so many Rogues it isn't surprising that this single-print uncommon from Morningtide holds value.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Cloak and Dagger

20. Pili-Pala

Pili-Pala has a unique ability which can often combo with other cards to create infinite loops in Commander. Originally a common in Shadowmoor, its only other printing is in the Mystery Boosters, so there just aren't a ton floating around.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Pili-Pala

Keep On Pickin'

I feel the need to reiterate that while this list is not all inclusive of colorless cards, it does cover a nice range of random cards one might see digging through bulk. I find expanding my knowledge base on these types of cards prevents me from having to re-dig through bulk I had already been through looking for missed gems. I can certainly say that fatherhood had greatly diminished the time I can devote to picking bulk, so I am very vested in maximizing my efficiency and eliminating wasted time and effort. Happy hunting!

Real-world Flavor. More Horror From Dante, Stoker and Conrad

Posted on February 16, 2022February 16, 2022 by Francesco Spagnol

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Rats, rats, rats! Hundreds, thousands, millions of them, and every one a life.

In the past two articles, we analyzed two English-speaking authors, namely Coleridge and Poe. Despite their differences, both writers share a tendency toward themes of horror and fear. As we discussed, that is why they were mostly quoted on black or dark-feeling Magic cards. However, they are not the only authors of this kind appearing in Magic flavor. In this installment, we are going to discuss a few more cards whose flavor texts range from ominous to purely horrific.

The quotation above comes from Stoker's epistolary novel Dracula, a masterpiece of gothic fiction and one of the most quoted horror works of all time. Before moving to Stoker, however, let's start with a much more ancient author, the father of Italian literature Dante.

Carnophage

And in their blind and unattaining state / their miserable lives have sunk so low / that they must envy every other fate.

First printed in Exodus (1998), Carnophage is an all-star of mono-black aggro decks, and especially of tribal zombie decks. The flavor of its first printing, “Eating is all it knows,” is already memorable. With the card's Friday Night Magic promo reprint (2001), it received an epic quotation from no less than Dante Alighieri.

This is one of my all-time favorite quotations. It also makes for one of the most horrific phrases to appear on a Magic card. from Dante's Inferno 3, 43-45, it's the only quotation of his used on a Magic card. It's also notably one of the few cases where the translator is explicitly mentioned. We are talking about American translator John Ciardi, who published his translation of Dante's Inferno in 1954.

Three verses are quoted on the card. The speaker of the lines is Virgil, Dante's guide through Hell and Purgatory. His guide shows Dante how the souls of the “Ignavi,” those who in life have never taken a side either good or evil, are punished for not choosing. Their punishment is constantly running after a meaningless sign while being poked endlessly by wasps and flies.

This is not the most spot-on of image-quotation couplings in my opinion. The zombie illustrated by Pete Venters is a solid creature and not a spirit. Even the name Carnophage quite literally means “flesh-eater.” The quotation doesn't make sense in this context even when the souls described by Dante are getting eaten by swarms of insects. Still, I like how both the quotation and the illustration succeed in displaying pure pain and misery.

Swarm of Rats

Rats, rats, rats! Hundreds, thousands, millions of them, and every one a life.

Swarm of Rats first saw print in the beginners set Portal (1997). It was reprinted a few times after that. Starting with Eighth Edition (2003), it got this quotation from Bram Stoker’s Dracula. This rat costs two mana and its power grows depending on the number of rats you control. Its toughness always stays at one, which doesn’t make it particularly reliable. In spite of that, it’s a great kitchen-table card. It surely made many new players try and build a tribal deck based on rats.

Taken out of context, the sentence quoted on this card is not impressive. However, if you know the context, things change a lot. Swarm of Rats might even become the most disturbing card of the game. The excerpt comes from a monologue by Renfield, a psychiatric inmate suffering from delusions. Renfield has the habit of eating insects, spiders, and even birds. Not nice. Van Helsing is interrogating him, and he tells his story. Apparently, he believes that eating living creatures will provide him with more and more life, making him immortal. As you can see, the swarm of rats by itself is not the worst thing.

Taste of Blood

How blessed are some people, whose lives have no fears, no dreads, to whom sleep is a blessing that comes nightly, and brings nothing but sweet dreams.

This is a special case of a dark quotation. In fact, it does not depict anything bad. Instead, it works by subtraction, by opposition. It mentions people who live in peace and whose dreams are good. The effect, however, is to evoke the opposite, especially if you again know the context of the source material.

The person speaking (or rather writing) is 19-year-old Lucy Westenra, the first victim of Dracula in England. Lucy keeps a diary, and in this entry, she describes her sleeping issues. Right before the quotation, we can read: “Oh, the terrible struggle that I have had against sleep". And later on: "The pain of the fear of sleep, and with such unknown horrors as it has for me!”

The choice to quote Dracula on a card called Taste of Blood is a little on the nose, but it works. The illustration portrays a young girl with vampire marks on her throat. At the same time, she seems to be already drawn to the very flavor of blood. Perhaps she is transforming into a vampire herself, just as Lucy in the novel? The flavor text sounds much less reassuring.

Fear

The horror. The horror.

One of the most recognizable quotations in Magic comes from Joseph Conrad’s Heart of Darkness (1899). It’s a brief quote, but it’s effective — especially on a card called Fear. The character pronouncing the sentence is Kurtz, and these are his last words before dying. Here's more of the quote from Conrad:

Anything approaching the change that came over his features I have never seen before, and hope never to see again. He cried in a whisper at some image, at some vision—he cried out twice, a cry that was no more than a breath: “‘The horror! The horror!”

The horror he’s talking about invests his whole life and his destiny. It’s a final, bitter judgment on the evil nature of humankind and colonialism. Nothing specific is mentioned, and still, it evokes every kind of vile and wicked deed. In this case, there is also a nice, additional treat, since most readers will be familiar with Coppola's Apocalypse Now.

The film, from 1979, is an adaptation of Conrad's novella, even though the setting moves from Congo to Vietnam. More importantly, the very character of Colonel Kurtz pronounces the same line, one of the most famous of modern literature and cinema. We can all visualize Marlon Brando's chilling interpretation.

Again, the card's power level and its flavor text are not necessarily on the same level. An aura giving Fear for two mana is not memorable at all. This brief and powerful quote, on the other hand, is sure to have an impression on many players.

Different kinds of Horror

We only analyzed four cards this time around. There is a common thread running through these quotations, though each is somewhat different from the others. The only quote in verse is from Dante's Inferno. The other three come from a novel and a novella, and are in prose. Apart from these matters of stylistic presentation, what I find more interesting is the different shades of horror they deliver.

Carnophage's text directly describes a dreadful scene, whose setting is literally Hell. It shows victims being punished eternally, and it's quite obvious how such a scene affects the viewer. Swarm of Rats is somehow similar, as its text also portrays a concrete scene. What is really frightening here is not the pack of rats. Rather, it's the awareness of what they represent to the (unmentioned) human figure who's speaking.

With Taste of Blood we pass to a slightly less violent kind of horror. The excerpt only evokes nightmares by mentioning sweet dreams. It is up to the reader (or in this case, player) to complete the picture with their own sensibilities. This is, after all, the case with any kind of good literature, is it not? Finally, we have the tragic, mighty briefness of Fear's flavor text, a great example of how to conjure the worst you can think of without even saying it.

Conclusions

In the course of this installment, we moved between different ages and languages, with the only constant element being the emotion of fear. As we've seen, there are several ways of evoking that feeling. This is another reason why I find Magic's flavor texts so captivating. In this series, we are only dealing with real-world quotations, but we all know they only represent a tiny fraction of the full corpus of Magic flavor.

Don’t Overestimate New Cards

Posted on February 15, 2022February 15, 2022 by David Ernenwein

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The Prerelease for Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty is over, and the set is fully released on MTGO. That means it's time for testing and brewing. And hot takes. So many hot takes. This is par for the course in Magic, it's only now that the more measured and data driven results begin coming in that the real impact of a set can be measured. However, that comes with an asterisk.

And that asterisk is that nobody is fully immune from hype. It's human nature to jump on bandwagons and fall in line with the group. What's important is to not let that hype continue forever. The longer you buy into the hype, the harder it will be to escape its pull. Which is where I conveniently come in.

I've always enjoyed providing hard reality checks against hype and rhetoric, especially post set-reveal. Today will be no different. Modern got some new and unexpected toys from NEO and while they're good, they're not as good as the hype might have you believe.

A Legendary Group

In case the above linked articles aren't sufficient clue, the new legendary channel lands are the hot cards for... well, every format, frankly. However, Boseiju, Who Endures has been picked to be such a powerhouse that its arrival will be format warping. Which is quite the hot take, but when the card in question is an uncounterable Naturalize mixed with Cleansing Wildfire, I understand where the hype and excitement are coming from.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Boseiju, Who Endures

All the channel lands promise to provide useful and uncounterable effects for many decks at low cost. That's low, not no cost, despite what I've overheard some discussing. Every card that is put into the deck is taking the place of some other card. Economics 101: everything has an opportunity cost. In this case, the cost is a mono-color land (which is usually assumed to be a basic in my experience) but in exchange, decks potentially gain another spell. And that is quite good.

Two Shall Lead

Boseiju has been the most discussed of the cycle for Modern, and for good reason. Destroying artifacts and enchantments is quite important with Urza's Saga and Colossus Hammer being so heavily played. Add on the ability to destroy opposing non-basics and it's yet another nail in Tron's coffin! Which has been said so many times by now that it's lost all meaning. However, the point stands that Boseiju is likely to be relevant across the board.

The other big gain is Otawara, Soaring City. Four mana for kinda-Boomerang is too much to pay. However, when it's uncounterable and critically not a spell, suddenly it becomes a great rate. At least, for one very specific job: removing a resolved Teferi, Time Raveler on the opponent's turn. Otawara will be the first card that can do that as far as I'm aware, and could prove exceptional in control mirrors.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Otawara, Soaring City

However, outside of that, Otawara is unlikely to be channeled often. Four mana is pricey for the effect. I know that all these lands have cost reduction. However, in my testing, that clause just isn't relevant. Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer is the only legendary creature that sees widespread play, so the channels will never be especially cheap, and even at three mana the effect is expensive.

The Problem

Which is foreshadowing for my overarching point today. From what I've seen and heard, most players are heavily overestimating these cards. It's natural to see a new set with beloved effects that have never seen play before and get excited. However, that is a dangerous (and costly) road to walk. The hype is leading to unrealistic expectations and ignores the reality of playing with these lands. Especially the cost of playing them.

Sage's Wisdom

There have been measured takes out there, but the best one comes from Frank Karsten. As Magic's math guru, he worked out the math for these channel lands and drew some conclusions that I agree with and informed my own opinion. I realize that many readers don't have a CFB Pro subscription, so here are the saliant points for this article's purposes:

The cost of including the first channel land is low but not zero. It is also higher than previous legendary lands because the channel lands aren't true spell lands like Pendelhaven; they're closer to MDFC's like Shatterskull Smashing. A choice must be made.
Therefore, they must be played as lands more often than used as spells. This necessity is reduced as more copies are played.
But given that, the risk of drawing multiples increases as more copies are played, just like with any other card. Because they're legendary, the risk of drawing only channel lands increases as a function of the number played and land count.
The effects are solid, but not especially powerful. This reduces their playability and makes their risks more significant.
Two should be the most common number played based on the math and risks involved.

Frank noted that all his work was theory-crafting and that actual experience might alter the conclusions. I have been testing these cards and will largely confirm his conclusions, but there are additional points I want to expand on.

The Karakas Effect

Primarily, Frank mentioned the risk of drawing only the legendary lands, but he didn't go into great detail. It's not something easily quantified, so he simply mentioned it and moved on. I'm here to say that this is the biggest problem with these lands.

I play Legacy Death and Taxes. As such, I've spent years playing with multiple copies of Karakas. Karakas is great in Legacy both as an answer to Emrakul, the Aeons Torn and Griselbrand and to protect Thalia, Guardian of Thraben, and in a format with Wasteland, playing multiples is essential. However, drawing multiples as my only lands happens, and it really hurts. In those circumstances, Karakas is just a bad Lotus Petal. Sometimes that's okay as the first gets Wasted or you have a lot of Aether Vials. However, when you actually need to make land drops to cast expensive spells, it's a nightmare.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Karakas

Given the risks involved, experience suggests that players will want to severely limit how many channel lands they play. Outside of Legacy, there's little risk of losing the first one to enemy fire and Wasting yourself is never good. However, that would mean that there's little chance of ever using the lands for their effect, and players generally hate those kinds of decisions. Thus, there's considerable tension to playing these lands, more than previous legendary lands.

The Basics Problem

On that note, the opportunity cost of these lands is low, but it isn't zero. That's just how opportunity cost works. Replacing a dual land with a channel land is a very high cost because of color requirements. This means that basic lands are the most likely sacrifice as the cost to color access is lower. Which is a fair assessment, but it misses critical extra costs associated with cutting basic lands.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Blood Moon

Namely, losing to Blood Moon. I know that Boseiju answers Moon, but that has a massive asterisk attached. By replacing basics with non-basics, the risk of getting locked out by Moon is increased. Which is the whole point of playing Blood Moon in the first place. However, the other problem with cutting basics for channel lands is that it makes Modern's fetch/shockland manabase unstable. Basics are essential for reducing the life cost of mana and channel lands can't be fetched. Having to fetch a Breeding Pool instead of Forest or Island at low life is very dangerous.

About that asterisk: Boseiju answers Moon if and only if it is in hand and there's 1G available to cast it. Moon's only really dangerous when it catches players tapped out with only non-basics. It follows that Boseiju is no better at saving unprepared players from Moon than Prismatic Ending is. Which is to be expected given Boseiju's reality rather than the expectations.

Boseiju Is Overrated

I would go further and say it is severely overrated. The rest of the cycle appears (to me) to be valued appropriately, but Boseiju gets far more credit than it deserves. It's a fine card and quite playable in Modern, but it can't live up to the hype. It's not the fault of Boseiju so much as that players have unrealistic expectations. The articles I linked in the intro believed that Boseiju will be format defining while I'm here to say that it's just a role player. It has a place in Modern and will see play. It just won't redefine the format.

Severe Limitations

The biggest problem with actually playing Boseiju for its channel effect is that the effect plays worse than expected. Path to Exile has fallen off because turning Ragavan into a mountain is not great, no matter how necessary at times. Boseiju is like Path, but worse because the destroyed artifact, enchantment, or non-basic land is replaced by any land with a basic land type. And if exchanging a creature for a basic is bad, turning Urza's Saga into Stomping Grounds is worse.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Urza's Saga

Not to say that it isn't better than the alternative. Turning a Tron land into Forest at instant speed is good (see also Field of Ruin) and getting Saga off the board may be necessary to survive. However, anything less than that feels very bad. Turning Gruul Turf into Stomping Ground is not much of a downgrade. And then there's the possibility that the opponent searches up a triome and fixes their mana. It is very difficult to color-screw opponents using Boseiju.

Which is very relevant given that many arguments for Boseiju point to it always having targets against every deck. Not every deck has artifacts or enchantments to kill, but almost all have nonbasics to destroy so there's always something to do with extra copies. And Life from the Loam and Wrenn and Six recurision can run decks out of nonbasics. Which may be true, but for that to happen the opponent would have to do nothing for a very long time so you can durdle in peace. If that's the case, you were never losing that game in the first place.

A Hostile Metagame

The other question is whether the land is more relevant than the artifact or enchantment being destroyed. Most of the ones being played right now are really cheap, easily replaceable, and recurrable via Lurrus of the Dream-Den. Again, turning Colossus Hammer into Plains may be necessary to survive, but it also accelerates the opponent toward Lurrus and getting the Hammer back. Against most artifact decks, Boseiju should be regarded as a stopgap, nothing more.

If more decks were playing more expensive artifacts or enchantments, it would be a different story. Killing a Krark-Clan Ironworks or similar would be very good, but that isn't a thing in Modern anymore. It's different in sideboard games since powerful enchantments are popular sideboard cards. Turning Rest in Peace or Ensnaring Bridge into a land sounds excellent. However, those types of cards don't see much play right now either, leaving Boseiju as a good card in the wrong metagame.

Realistic Expectations

The bottom line is that the channel lands are playable, but have an unexpected amount of baggage attached to said playability. Especially compared to older legendary lands. Therefore, while they will see play, it won't be as widespread as the hype suggests. Otawara seems like it will be quite important in control decks where I'd start with two copies. The other channel lands will likely be one-ofs in the maindeck and Boseiju will likely see more copies in the sideboard. However, they're hardly going to be format redefining. Read the cards that actually exist, not the cards in your head.

On Magic and Elvis Memorabilia

Posted on February 14, 2022February 14, 2022 by Sigmund Ausfresser

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Inspiration for this week’s article came from a Facebook chat with Magic collector Philipp Shary. While I prefer Twitter (@sigfig8), I’m always eager to engage with folks in the community to talk all things Magic and Magic Finance.

“When is the best time to buy a collectible, Reserved List / Old School card?”

In traditional cheeky response, the best answer to this question is “yesterday.” While there’s your typical week-to-week and month-to-month variation, these classic cards have done nothing but appreciate over the past decade. The most iconic have been increasing in price for even longer—Black Lotus’s steady incline can basically be traced back towards the game’s inception.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Black Lotus

In terms of investment returns, there is very little that rivals iconic Magic cards.

How long can this trend really last? If a played Unlimited Black Lotus climbed from $100 to $10,000+ over the course of nearly 3 decades, does that mean we should expect another two orders of magnitude—$1,000,000—by 2050? I don’t think so. I suspect things will flatten and perhaps even reverse by then.

What’s my supporting data for such a prediction? I’m not so sure I have compelling evidence, but I can start with a comparison to the King of Rock and Roll himself.

Elvis Presley Memorabilia

Elvis Presley, deemed the “King of Rock and Roll,” was a popular singer, actor, personality, etc. throughout the 1950’s, 1960’s, and into the early 1970’s before his unfortunate death in 1977. He is by far one of the most iconic people of the 20^th century. He’s got all sorts of records and awards from his musical career, and he was even posthumously awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom back in 2018.

In other words, this man was and still is a legend.

For years after his death, fans and collectors cherished (i.e. highly valued) all sorts of Elvis memorabilia. Ticket stubs, posters, signatures, worn clothes, pens, records, cuff links… you name it, if it is associated with Elvis Presley, it could be worth good money. A quick search on eBay reveals dozens of sold items worth over $1000.

While it’s true these items still hold significant value—the Elvis Presley estate brought in roughly $1.5 million of memorabilia sales in 2019—collectors have observed the value of their items dropping over the past decade. As recently as 2017, memorabilia sales were more than double, at near $4 million. What gives?

A strong hypothesis is that the die hard fans of Elvis are aging, and with that their interest may be fading. Or in an extreme case, people with collections of memorabilia are passing away and their items are flooding the market. Since Elvis was most popular about 60 years ago, those with nostalgia for the singer are going to be aging in step. The new generations have only heard of Elvis—many may not even be able to name a single song he recorded.

With a lack of interest from younger generations, the luster of Elvis collectibles has started to fade.

Magic’s Place in the Timeline

This paints a dire picture for Magic fans. Eventually, the players and collectors with the greatest nostalgia for old Magic sets will age in similar fashion to Elvis fans. Fortunately, Magic is 20-30 years behind Elvis. So while die hard Elvis collectors are probably in their 60’s and 70’s, the super-collectors of Magic are still in their 30’s and 40’s (I myself am a thirty-something). In this age range, we’re still raising kids, teaching them the joys of Magic, and re-living our childhood by slinging spells first created in 1993 and 1994.

For this reason, Magic as an investment should still have at least 20 more years of health, before collectors decide to liquidate their collections en masse. What’s more, Magic is far from dead. You could argue the game is still in its peak, receiving significant attention from players, collectors, investors, and Hasbro shareholders. With this kind of attention, it’s not likely the game will be going away any time soon.

This means there’s a chance for newer generations to engage in the game and develop a bond with it. So while today’s thirty-somethings and forty-somethings are heavy collectors, there’s hope that a similar sense of nostalgia will reach players in their twenties about ten years from now. Only, their nostalgia may be for original Mirrodin and Champions of Kamigawa, rather than Arabian Nights and Revised.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Umezawa's Jitte

I don’t think this means the older stuff will fade away altogether—it may just receive less focus.

External Factors

There are other factors to keep in mind when attempting to extrapolate Magic card values years away from now.

First, there’s the overall health of the game. Magic is thriving today as players continue to feel hype with each new set release—Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty is no exception. As long as the game remains popular and the player base robust in size, the collectability of the game’s older cards will remain a worthwhile financial endeavor. Given the now 29-year history of the game, I don’t think it would suddenly die overnight, either. Chances are we the players will see the writing on the wall well before the game’s eventual death. As of today, I see no such signs.

Second, we need to consider the broader economy. The last couple years led to significant price appreciation in many asset classes, including Magic, cryptocurrency, stocks, and other collectibles. But nothing moves up in a straight line forever. We have already begun to see some cracks in America’s economy as inflation rears its ugly head, forcing the Fed to react with raising rates. This will act like a wet blanket on the market, and it could lead to some softness in Magic prices. It wouldn’t be the first time Magic prices took a pause and pulled back in price.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Underground Sea

From 2018 to 2020 there was a significant pullback in card prices after notching all-time highs in June 2018. It wasn’t until about February of 2021 before prices started seeing new records (depending on the card). We’ve even been in a consolidation phase for the past few months as prices bounce around without significant moves (with some exceptions). If we see a large drop in stock prices and cryptocurrency prices, it could have a short-term impact on Magic prices too. From there, it’s difficult to predict when everything will rebound, though I have to believe it all will rebound eventually.

Third, there’s the simple fact that card prices just can’t go up forever. Eventually, things have to level out, almost like an asymptote. Where that asymptote lies on the scale is difficult for me to predict. But I think it’s safe to say Unlimited Black Lotuses will never reach $1,000,000 in my lifetime (probably not ever). Some of the rarest, most collectible pieces of artwork never reach that level, so why would an Unlimited rare with over 10,000 copies in circulation? I just don’t see it.

I have a very difficult time imagining $100,000 Unlimited Black Lotuses, too. At some point, the opportunity cost is simply too great. Would you rather have a piece of cardboard or a down payment on a house? A piece of cardboard, or your child’s college tuition fully covered? At some point, the equation stops making sense.

If we embrace this theory, then prices must peak eventually. They may not peak and then sell off drastically, but they could peak and then drift sideways for years, with a slow and steady decay as the collector population ages. Are Old School players going to be so focused on their Erhnam and Burn-em and “The Deck” decks into their 60’s? Perhaps by then, they'll have other priorities in life, though it’s difficult to say for sure.

Wrapping It Up

All these factors introduce uncertainty. With this uncertainty in mind, I’m creating a plan. It’s not fully cooked, so I’m not ready to share it just yet. But, with the end goal of raising funds from Magic to fund my two children’s college educations, I recognize that I have a timeline to work against. I will absolutely need to have most of my collection sold in the next 10-ish years.

What I haven’t figured out yet is the best way to sell everything. Should I find a large vendor looking for a significant boost in Old School inventory, and sell it to them at once? I don’t love that idea because it likely implies taking a hit on value. The most cost-effective approach would probably be to sell it all, gradually, a couple cards at a time. If I’m going to do that, however, I almost need to start now; an example, hypothetical cash-out target date of 2030 doesn’t leave me as much time as you’d think to sell this whole collection piece by piece.

As I compare Magic to Elvis, my confidence in card price stability remains strong. While it could offer some foreshadowing for what may happen to card prices twenty years from now, the player base with maximum Magic nostalgia is still young enough to remain engaged in the hobby. This “Suspicious Mind” sees plenty of “Shake, Rattle, and Roll” left in Old School prices—at least for the next decade!

Quiet Conversations Episode 2 – “Kamigawa Neon Dynasty”

Posted on February 14, 2022February 14, 2022 by Adam Cohen

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An Exciting and Powerful New Set

In this episode of Quiet Conversations, five members of the Quiet Speculation team discuss a few of the cards they're most excited about from the new set and share their overall impressions.