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Is Khans of Tarkir Supposed to Be a Nostalgia Set or What?

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Freshly spoiled today, this card looks pretty sweet:

mantisrider

Of course, we've seen something quite similar before:

lightningangel

A lot of cards in this set seem to be directly based on older cards. Even though Tarkir is a brand new plane, it seems like part of the design is meant to allude to cards of the past. Given that we've already been told that this block will have a time travel element, this makes a certain amount of sense. Check out some how similar several new cards are to these iconic older cards:

utterend vindicate

cleverimpersonator clone

suspensionfield oblivionring

temurascendency firesofyavimaya

abzanascendancy fieldofsouls

Of course, there's continuations of cycles, like the tri lands and three-color charms. And reprints like fetches also add a certain amount of nostalgia, considering they were first printed 12 years ago.

But there's also a number of cards that aren't as closely analogous but still nonetheless very similar. Sometimes these similar cards are in different colors than their older counterparts, with some slight changes to be within the color pie. You want examples? Oh, I've got examples:

duneblast cataclysm

bitterrevelation factorfiction

wingmateroc broodmatedragon

rattleclawmystic noblehierarch

Some of these are a little more analogous than others, but there's no denying at least some similarities. This doesn't even include the typical effects we see almost every year: Wrath of God variants, Fork variants, etc.

endhostilities howlofthehorde (2)

A cynical person might call this set derivative and unoriginal, but I'm giving Wizards of the Coast more credit than that. R&D has spent the last few years learning how to use nostalgia effectively, and the last time we had a set with a time travel element, nostalgia was a key ingredient. And even if they are similar to existing cards, there's no denying that many of these new cards are sweet.

Given the recent focus on sentimentality, allusions to classic cards, and the knowledge that time travel will be a factor, I would not be surprised to see nostalgia be a huge element in the next two sets of this block. Could this mean more high-profile reprints? I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Insider: So Many Words About Fetch Lands

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If you're reading this, you're an Insider, so you already know what I'm about to tell you. But just in case you need a reminder: don't preorder cards from Khans of Tarkir.

Sure, if there is a particularly underpriced mythic or if you're fairly certain you can double up, go ahead. But unless you are dead set on playing a tournament immediately upon the release of this set, you're going to come out ahead by not paying preorder prices. You've heard this a million times, both from me and others, so I'll end up my PSA here.

Fetches Are Cool

Look at these beautiful things:

onslaughtfetches

Now these:

zendikarfetchlands

The first printings of the fetch lands have a similar character. They're clearly identifiable as Magic art, but all ten share a certain abstract quality. You can make out terrain details, but there's almost a bit of an Impressionist feel to them.

It's hard to put into words, but to me, their art evokes the feelings of the land types rather than depicting actual lands themselves. This kind of makes flavor sense within the game too, because these lands are used to go get other lands for use—they don't tap for mana themselves.

640px-Claude_Monet,_Impression,_soleil_levant

But Kind of Ugly

Now look at these:

khansfetches

We've lost the Impressionist look and have gone literal. Compare the following:

karplusanforest Wooded-Foothills-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoilers-190x263 WoodedFoothills

One of these things is not like the other. Maybe it's just me, but I think the fetch lands have traditionally featured a more evocative art style than other MTG lands, and it disappoints me that Wizards has abandoned this practice.

What does this mean financially? Possibly nothing. If we use Thoughtseize and Chord of Calling and shock lands as precedents, the original printings will maintain a premium over the reprints.

reprints

But. But. These fetch land reprints are significantly older and rarer cards than those above. If you have the opportunity to scoop up copies of the Onslaught fetches at prices close to those of the reprints, I expect this to be a great play in the long run. Keep an eye on the price of the old fetches, because whatever upside the new ones have, the old ones will have more. If the prices start to converge, you know what to do.

Don't Worry, Khans Fetches Will Have Value Too

In fact, I'm a little concerned they will have too much value. This reprint was highly, highly anticipated, similar to the shock lands but to an even greater extent. And what happened in that instance? Shocks started high, and did indeed drop, but not quite to the level that the community was expecting. They've stayed in the same $3-or-so window since settling.

Part of this is because speculators saw them as such a slam-dunk buy. I've got a pile of shock lands, you've got a pile of shock lands—we've all got a pile of shock lands. Any time a hint of a price bump has come up, a portion of us have sold and dropped the price right down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hallowed Fountain

Additionally, thanks to sites like QS, the average MTG player is now becoming more finance-savvy. The player who used to ship his duals for EDH mythics and dragons is becoming rarer and rarer. It's not uncommon to run into a casual player who will not trade his lands because, "They're going to go up next year."

The growing interest in Modern doesn't help. More and more players are realizing that building up a Modern collection is the place to be, and so they keep their Eternal-playables rather than ship them off at rotation.

With fewer copies flooding the market due to myriad reasons, plus the highly anticipated nature of this reprint, plus the early price gouging by SCG, I would expect these lands to settle a little higher than we might otherwise expect. Scooping Zendikar fetches at $5 to $10 was clearly the right play, and it will be the right play if Khans fetches ever go that low. But given all the factors I already mentioned, my concern is that fetch lands will not necessarily drop to that low level like they did before.

What I'm really trying to say is that I could see this being another shock land situation. Everybody wants these things—both to play with and to make money with—and it may mean that the floor isn't quite as low as supply and demand would naturally dictate. There's absolutely still opportunity in these (not at the current price, in case that wasn't clear), but it may be a longer-term opportunity, like shock lands have ended up being.

So be careful. Don't head into this with unrealistic expectations. Staple lands used to be the financier's bread and butter, but the community has caught on and that may not be as true as it was in times past.

Still a Stable Place for Trading

Many of my shock lands were acquired via trade. A whole lot of them, in fact. And even though prices haven't gone up the way I hoped and expected, I don't feel all that bad about the Innistrad block Standard staples that I shipped to acquire them.

For example, back in early 2013, when I shipped a playset of Silverblade Paladins for a playset of Overgrown Tombs, I was actually slightly behind in value. Nowadays, it's easy to see that I won that trade:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Overgrown Tomb
There was an error retrieving a chart for Silverblade Paladin

I'm not necessarily going to be putting money into these new fetch lands (unless, of course, I'm wrong and they do drop to $5. Then I'll buy them all). But I'll be trading pretty aggressively toward them as long as they're in trade binders, especially if I'm shipping off Standard cards for them. In the long term, Standard cards have nowhere to go but down and fetch lands have nowhere to go but up.

So once the too high floor has been established, understand that fetch lands are not likely to be quick flips for easy double-ups. But they are going to be good long-term holds, and if you don't put too many resources towards them too quickly, it won't be all that painful to treat them that way.

At the very least, as long as you wait for the floor, your'e not going to lose money, which is a very comforting fact. Many of us didn't make as much money as we hoped on shocks, but as long as we acquired them at the right time in the right ways, it's not like we lost a whole lot, if anything. Let's take that lesson and apply it to the Khans of Tarkir fetch lands.

Insider: Looking for Staples in Khans of Tarkir Spoilers

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Khans of Tarkir is a multi-colored set focused on three-color wedge combinations. Spoilers so far reveal it to have a heavy composition of gold cards, and there are many more to come.

Gold cards are typically more powerful than their monochrome counterparts, but they are also much harder to wield. The most important spoilers for Standard will not be the gold cards with narrow applications, but the single-color cards. They will find homes across a variety of color combinations and archetypes.

Expensive, flashy cards will be played, but the most desirable and important traits of all are efficiency and accessibility. Efficient cards have an impact on the game greater than their cost would belie, and accessible cards aren’t limited to specific decks or strategies. Here’s a look at some cards destined for the Top 8 of events next year:

endhostilities

End Hostilities is a board sweeper from the lineage of Wrath of God. The best sweepers have an ability relevant to its context, such as Hallowed Burial dealing with persist, or End Hostilities dealing with bestow, which was a major part of Theros block.

Most importantly, End Hostilities becomes the only unconditional board sweeper in a Standard format that would otherwise rely on Anger of the Gods and Drown in Sorrow. It’s indisputable that white now has the most powerful and far-reaching sweeper in Standard. End Hostilities is a huge tool for white-based control decks, and and I expect it to have a major impact on Standard until it rotates.

wingmateroc

This card screams value. This card will be ideal at the top of an aggressive curve. In a deck with plenty of cheap ways to trigger raid, Wingmate Roc is comparable to a cheaper Broodmate Dragon. Putting two creatures into play for the price of one is card advantage and massive tempo, and I expect this card to bury opponents all Standard season.

The bodies are also very strong for holding back on defense. The trigger of gaining life is not extremely important when analyzing the card, but in specific game situations it will be invaluable. It's strong because it allows its controller to switch to an aggressive stance and all the while gain valuable life points, which makes Wingmate Roc a very difficult card to race.

cleverimpersonator

Clone-style cards are as only as good as the cards they can copy. Clever Impersonator goes beyond creatures, and even beyond the artifacts of Phyrexian Metamorph, to include enchantments and planeswalkers.

Planeswalkers. Theros block was dominated by planeswalkers including Elspeth, Sun's Champion, Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver, Xenagos, the Reveler and Kiora, the Crashing Wave. These planeswalkers will all be a major part of the new Standard, as will Nissa, Worldwaker and the newly spoiled Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker.

Clever Impersonator copies all of these planeswalkers, regardless of the controller. I also see it doing work against the cycle of Ascendancy enchantments, like Temur Ascendancy and Mardu Ascendancy.

Clever Impersonator will be great for copying powerful opposing threats and for creating redundancies within one’s own deck. It will be best of all when copying cards that cost more mana, which leads to a tempo gain.

howlofthehorde

It took me some time to wrap my head around this card, and once I did I saw something quite powerful. Typically these sort of effects just copy a spell, which provides some redundancy, and at best it generates some tempo through mana efficiency when copying a more expensive spell. The cost, of course, is the conditional nature which leads to a lack of consistency.

At worst, Howl of the Horde is a weak Fork. At best, with raid triggered, it’s a double-Fork, and thus, a source of card advantage that also carries the potential for generating massive tempo. It creates two extra spells for the price of copying one, which equates to drawing a spell and playing it for free. Red card advantage is nothing to take lightly, especially considering this card will most likely be copying burn spells. In a deck based around the Philosophy of Fire, Howl of the Horde is a unique and powerful option.

Howl of the Horde gets particularly spicy when combined with...another Howl of the Horde. Copying a Fork doesn’t get anyone anywhere, but copying a double-Fork gets out of hand. As it plays out, a raid-triggered Howl of the Horde followed by another Howl of the Horde, which is necessarily raid-triggered, equals a total Forking power of six extra copies, which added to the original spells comes out to a 7x multiplier on the original.

Howl of the Horde + Howl of the Horde + Lightning Strike = Blackjack.

Howl of the Horde is quite nice with any burn spell, including the M15-reprinted Lightning Strike. But I am most excited about its synergies with Stoke the Flames.

The big condition on Howl of the Horde is raid, which requires a healthy number of creatures to be triggered reliably--which is at odds with pairing the card with lots of spells to prevent it being a dead draw. Stoke the Flames is also at its best with lots of creatures, so I imagine these two cards will be going hand-in-hand all season long.

Stoke the Flames is also ideal because it can be cast cheaply, even for free, which helps overcome the three-mana restriction imposed Howl of the Horde. A deck that can strike a balance between burn spells and creatures for raid will take full advantage of Howl of the Horde.

sarkhanthedragonspeaker

Sarkhan, the Dragonspeaker may be best analyzed not as a planeswalker but as something else entirely. It’s essentially a hybrid of a removal spell and a dragon, with a little upside in its -3 ability.

The latter will kill most creatures below Sarkhan on the curve, including Courser of Kruphix. This gives him some ability to protect himself, but most importantly a way to generate tempo immediately. This ability is rare on a planeswalker, and it reminds me a bit of the -1 on Jace, the Mind Sculptor, but more so the -2 conditional removal ability of Gideon Jura.

It will demand an answer, and it if it can survive for a turn or more it will quickly win the game with its ability to attack. The ability to turn into a 4/4 hasted flyer makes it a strong clock and a card that’s never truly dead. The ultimate ability comes quickly, and while it does not impact the board, it generates massive card advantage that a red deck with burn and cheap creatures will convert to a win.

seetheunrwitten

This card reminds me of Summoning Trap. While it does not come with built-in counterspell hate, it’s much better at doing what it does best.

For starters, See the Unwritten digs down eight cards compared to the seven of Summoning Trap. This gives it more digging power, which leads to greater options, and makes See the Unrritten a more consistent card. The biggest downside to this sort of card is that it sometimes will miss the mark, and See the Unwritten will miss less often.

With the ferocious trigger, See the Unwritten finds two creatures for the price of one, which makes it very, very powerful. In games where ferocious triggers, this card carries the potential for completely taking over a game.

It’s the sort of ability that will snowball a small lead into a smashing victory, so it’s the sort of card worth building around. A deck abusing See the Unwritten will already want to play large creatures to cheat into play, so its a natural pairing with ferocious.

The spoilers will continue until the prerelease two weekends from now. The fetchlands and flashy gold cards will get the most of the attention from the masses, but the smart money is on the simple staples that will be relevant for years to come.

How did Return to Ravnica Mechanics fare?

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I ran across this list recently, and it answers a question I can't say I considered much but is actually super interesting: Which Return to Ravnica block mechanics had the most impact on Constructed?

scharm
This was definitely one of the most-played Charms. What else made the list?

I remember when RTR came out thinking it was cool that each Guild would have its own mechanic, but I considered it really unlikely that they could all make the cut into Standard. Interestingly, Wizards actually did a great job with this, as almost all of them did make the cut. Of course, how successful each one was varied greatly, and you can find the list here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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The Case for Germanizing Dual Land Nicknames

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As editor for Brainstorm Brewery, I think a lot about Magic writing practices. Something I've been struggling with since I started that gig was whether we should write "fetch land" or "fetchland." For some reason I can't quite put my finger on, this term has been coming up a lot more frequently this week, so I decided to make my struggles public to get the community's opinion on the matter.

countrysidecrushergerman

The German thing to do would be to just make it a compound noun and write "fetchland." The upside to doing this would be that it's very clear what you're referring to (at least to MTG players). There's nothing saying that MTG players can't create their own words, so even though you might not find it in the dictionary, using "fetchland" is probably a fine approach.

I don't hate "fetchland," and I could see myself accepting it as standard MTG lexicon at some point, but I tend to use "fetch land" because I have a certain desire for things to be consistent. If it's fetchland, then it should also be shockland, scryland, painland, checkland, and the aesthetically awful-looking and hard-to-read dualland. As much as fetchland might look okay, those others have varying levels of okayness, and I just can't get on board if we don't use the same logic consistently.

khansfetches

Another problem is that when I see these compound nouns ending in "-land," I tend to think of places like Oakland and Portland. We don't say "Oak Land" or "Port Land," we say "Oak-lind" and "Port-lind" (I mean, I guess that could vary depending on your local dialect). So when I'm reading quickly, I read fetchland as "fetch-lind," and it takes me that much longer to process what's actually being referred to.

I probably give this issue way more thought than it deserves, but that's the way I roll. I welcome all logical and compelling arguments to settle this question once and for all.

 

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Danny Brown

Danny is a Cube enthusiast and the former Director of Content for Quiet Speculation.

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Khans of Tarkir Spoiler – Clever Impersonator

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Clever Impersonator

I'm not nearly as hyperbolic about this card as most people. Everyone seems convinced that a card with the word Ugin on it and Ghostfire Blade are proof positive that we're getting Eldrazi. Ben Bleiweiss predicted Eldrazi in the next 2 sets so everyone has decided that since Ben is never wrong (except when he called Filter lands in Theros, Thoughtseize in M14 and Grandeur rather than Chroma being the returning Theros mechanic) they should go out and get Emrakul playmats. I'm not really criticizing Ben Bleiweiss; he's right a lot and he's right about the stuff that matters. Whether we get Eldrazi doesn't really mean anything financially unless we can benefit from guessing correctly.

If we don't use this to copy Eldrazi, it's still probably very good. EDH jams this because it's the most flexible Clone ever printed.

The real question is whether we want to buy in above $7. I am not really sure. This is likely to be the most-opened set ever and I don't know if we can expect mythics that won't ever be a 4-of (I really, really have to imagine this won't be a 4-of) to maintain a price high enough that we'd wish we bought in at $10. However, we have a lot of things on our side.

1) This isn't selling out preorders yet. That means the presale price won't be recalibrated for a while which means we can see what happens.

2) We can wait until people who brew decks like Brad Nelson and Conley Woods weigh in. Bad players are saying very hyperbolic things right now, but I tend to pay less attention to what the people who loudly proclaim that Pain Seer is "a better Dark Confidant" say and more attention to what people who quietly opined that Voice of Resurgence may be the best card in the set think.

3) It will be a while before the foil prices are decided. I think if you can get foils of this for under $30, you likely do it because its EDH appeal is obvious, and while its non-foil price will largely be dictated by Standard, its foil price will largely be dictated by EDH and cube demand.

Will we get Eldrazi in the next few sets? I don't really care. If we do, great. If not, great. But I don't know that getting them or not will make or break this card. It's very flexible, aggressively-costed for being the most flexible Clone effect printed and it's a mythic, albeit one in a set where fetches are rare and I expect sales records to be shattered. Watch SCG's preorder inventory number carefully. A run on this card could happen with all the hyperbole I see bandied about. I'm not buying non-foils right now.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Unlocked Insider: And the Hammer Falls

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I’ll skip right to the relevant paragraph:

“So I’ll make a bold claim that’s been gnawing at the back of my mind for a couple of months now, even though I’ve pushed it off because it goes against all precedent: Modern prices are not going up anytime soon.”

I wrote that several months ago, around the time everyone was prepping for the oncoming Modern season and the wondrous prices it would bring. I felt the pressure at the time of writing that, because I was definitely fighting against the “conventional wisdom.” In retrospect, I’m really glad I acted on my gut there, because as we all know Modern prices stagnated horribly this summer, and in many cases dropped outright.

There’s another relevant paragraph from that article:

“When the next catalyst comes, aggressively buy staples across the board.”

That time is now.

Wooded-Foothills-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoilers-190x263

Allied fetchlands are here, and the proverbial hammer has fallen on Modern. It’s time. And it couldn’t be a better one.

The Coming Spike

Everyone is excited about Khans of Tarkir and the wedges it brings. I am too. But I’m much more excited about the future of Modern, and Khans is the reason why.

We’re going to see another round of growth in Modern. It’s not going to come in the next week. It’s not going to come in the next month. But it is coming, likely at the end of the year or right after the turn of the new one when we often see prices kick off another round of growth.

The last time there was a mass migration into Modern was when Modern Masters was reprinted. The reason for that was because people suddenly had a way to access the format. Easy packs mean that a whole slew of people who hadn’t been able to touch the format before could after busting a few high-dollar rares. We saw the effects of this immediately, with Tarmogoyf and Dark Confidant actually increasing in price from where they were before.

But it wasn’t just the flagship mythics. It was a slew of other cards in Modern, from fetchlands to Splinter Twin to even stuff like Serum Visions. So many new people entered the format that everything that wasn’t reprinted saw steady gains.

That’s the world we’ll be living in again soon.

Everyone else will be excited about Khans, trading for the new Standard, picking up their specs and their new decks, and that’s great. In fact, we should also be interested in the Standard specs we have faith in. But I think it’s going to be vital to spend the next month to two months trading the Standard cards for the things you can get for Modern. I think it’s handy that fetches are coming out now right at rotation, because it means people will have better things to do than worry about what may happen six months from now.

But price increases are coming in the next 12 months for a lot of Modern cards.

But probably not all of them. The reason? I think it’s clear now more than ever that Modern Masters 2 can’t be far off. It may be the summer of 2016, but the summer of 2015 seems ever more likely, just like I’ve been saying since last summer when Modern Masters was such a success.

Preparing for Reprints

So if we accept the fact that mass reprints are coming, the next question is how to best hedge against that risk. I think there are a few valid approaches.

1) Try to guess the likely MM2 candidates. There’s certainly merit to this, since there are some big cards we can expect to be reprinted. For instance, I don’t think Liliana of the Veil or Snapcaster Mage are the safest places to park money heading into next summer. You can spec into the rest of the big cards in the format and hope for the best, which will likely yield profit as a whole.

2) Go after the stuff that is probably safe from a Modern Masters 2 set. For the most part this means older cards, even cards that were in the original MMA set. I don’t think that you’re going to see as large of gains on the cards from the original set, of course, but I think they’re safer as a whole than something that could be reprinted in a Modern Masters 2 set.

3) Aim for really recent cards that you think have Modern potential. Considering they set a limit on the first Modern Masters set in terms of time period printed, something along the same lines for the next one means that cards from the last couple years might miss the cut.

The other big question is the Zendikar fetchlands. A lot of people have speculated they’ll show up in Khans of Tarkir block. I personally disagree with that, considering that with the enemy painlands in M15 and allied fetchlands now we have balanced mana in Standard. Putting fetches into the block would ruin that balance.

Furthermore, with allied fetches taking some of the pressure off the Zendikar copies, it means a huge reprinting may not be needed, and a smaller reprinting in a supplementary product could do the trick.

I don’t have a comprehensive list of cards to buy right now, mainly because this is all so new I myself haven’t come up with what an optimal list would look like. But I’ve laid out my thoughts on the general places to look above, and I’ll be coming up with a list for next week.

The beautiful thing about this situation, and it’s something really rare these days, is that I don’t think there’s a rush here. By all accounts, we should have a few weeks if not a few months to be ahead of the wave, and that’s an awesome opportunity.

 

Thanks for reading (and enjoy the spoilers!),

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

The Planeswalker’s Guide to Tarkir (Part 1)

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Knowing about Khans is about more than knowing the mechanics of the set and knowing that fetches are in. This is a seemingly-rich Plane with story and I'm pretty excited to move into it. I started during Shards of Alara so I like the three-color linear draft, and am looking forward to going back to it.

cardart_iskmjq2jd9

So if you're into the lore of the game, don't miss this article, especially (almost) everything you could want to know.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Khans of Tarkir Spoilers – 9/2/14

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See the Unwritten

No preamble, I can't wait to launch into my spiel about this boner-inducer.

As much as I wasn't excited about Temur Ascendency for my Maelstrom Wanderer deck, this is an auto-include. You're triggering ferocious with this spell in that deck, so you're getting 2 creatures in the top 8 of your library when you cascade into this. Your deck is set up to get a lot of value and this is a great way to do it. While Summoning Trap was more flexible in its day, this is much better than trap in EDH, especially if you get to cast this for free, or copy it, or you're assured that the creatures you get are on the order of Deadeye Navigator and Prime Speaker Zegana rather than the Sylvan Caryatid and Elvish Mystic you have a decent shot of hitting in Standard.

Speaking of Standard, if we get bigger creatures than we're seeing right now, this could get there. It's pretty easy to trigger Ferocious from what we've seen so far, especially in Temur and Abzan, and old favorites like Polukranos, World Eater and Arbor Colossus can help out.

Rakshasa Vizier

As sick as I am of hearing the phrase "Graveyard theme" from the mouths of people who wants to justify some of the things they said about the +1 ability on M15's Jace (forgetting that WotC admitted to doing next to no testing on JTMS' fateseal), it seems like Sultai is all-in on filling up the yard. This can take some of the sting out of getting pantsed by Tormod's Crypt or set you up to benefit from a big Delve. I think this is too clunky for Standard, but maybe the delve deck really wants to be 3 colors and run a 5 mana 4/4. I certainly like Ankle Shanker well enough. I don't see this being above $3-$5 best case scenario, though.

Flying Crane Technique

Cute.

Kheru Spellthief

The real question is "Is this card better or worse than Draining Whelk?"

I actually don't know. It all really depends on whether the format will be slow enough for Morph to get there, I hope so, because every Morph creature so far is flipping up for 5-7 mana just about, and that's way slow. This is making me want to brew something with Ixidron and the pickles lock in EDH, especially since Deadeye Navigator makes the morph cost 1U. This is powerful, but if it's too slow, that might not matter.

Wingmate Roc

Probably near-unbeatable in Limited, this could see some standard play. Broodmate Dragon was an excellent finisher in control decks and later in Jund and this does a decent approximation, with the added benefit of giving you non-trivial lifegain. Is it Baneslayer Angel? I am not convinced it is. It might, however, see some Standard play and that could give it significant upside. EDH likely doesn't have room for this.

Ghostfire Blade

Target Morph creature becomes a 4/4.

I don't know that this is playable out side of limited, nor do I know that it's not too narrow to play in every limited deck. This is likely a bulk rare unless I'm missing something pretty major. Germ tokens are black, Scuttling Doom Engine is big enough and Bronze Sable isn't in Khans of Tarkir boosters.

Insider: Khans Standard

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About a month ago, I wrote about a deck that was revitalized by M15. This deck, Mono-Green Devotion, had previously been a deck but not an impactful one in the metagame. With the tools already available as well as the new powerful M15 cards like Nissa, Worldwaker and Chord of Calling, Mono-Green seemed poised to overcome the black menace in Standard.

In short, that never happened. This synergistic deck did top-eight and top-sixteen multiple Star City Opens but it never gathered the attention nor following that I feel it deserves.

Due to my own busy schedule, I haven’t been able to travel much this summer so I haven’t gotten the opportunity to battle with this powerful deck. That’s quite a shame because I feel this deck can win every matchup. No deck can claim great numbers against Mono-Black Devotion, but this is one of the more favorable matchups against it. Every other deck is beatable unless they can put together their most powerful draw.

The most important aspect about this deck is that it isn’t rotating. There are a total of six cards, all in the main deck, that are rotating out of the format. The rest of the deck stays intact post-rotation. No matter your thoughts on the deck, any deck that stays around after rotation is bound to be powerful because the new decks to the format are less honed and will undoubtedly be sacrificing some power by having to play less than ideal cards. Decks that exist at the beginning of a format are much less powerful due to the limited amount of cards in the card pool.

Nothing is certain and it’s possible that the new format will be hostile to this strategy, but as for now, this is my front runner going into the new format. Take a look at the current list.

Mono-Green Devotion

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
4 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Burning-Tree Emissary
4 Courser of Kruphix
4 Polukranos, World Eater
3 Genesis Hydra
1 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Nylea, God of the Hunt
1 Arbor Colossus
1 Hornet Queen

Spells

3 Nissa, Worldwaker
2 Garruk, Caller of Beasts
4 Chord of Calling

Lands

4 Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx
3 Darksteel Citadel
16 Forest

Sideboard

1 Reclamation Sage
1 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Hornet Nest
1 Netcaster Spider
1 Eidolon of Blossoms
2 Mistcutter Hydra
4 Nylea's Disciple
2 Plummet
2 Setessan Tactics

As you can see, the only two cards we lose are Garruk, Caller of Beasts and Burning-Tree Emissary. While these cards are powerful tools, we can find other cards to replace them with.

In fact, I’ve been toying with Garruk, Apex Predator in this deck but the main issue was not being able to have both versions in play at once. Adding the newest Garruk to the deck means playing black mana and that may prove more difficult now that Overgrown Tomb will be leaving the format also. Between Sylvan Caryatid and Genesis Hydra, that may be enough to play one or two but the times when he’s stranded in your hand may make it not worth playing. In fact, splashing any second color without the help of the shock lands may be too much for this deck. I doubt that a second color is a necessity, but it’s always nice to have options.

If we are to replace our card drawing engine, I think changing gears by adding Eidolon of Blossoms may be the direction to go. The only other enchantments in the deck are Courser of Kruphix and the one-of Nylea, God of the Hunt, but we could add support for Eidolon. One card I’m considering tentatively to replace Burning-Tree Emissary with is Leafcrown Dryad. Certainly this is not an ideal swap, but it would help out the enchantment theme as well as be good in the early and mid-game.

As of now, our other options are limited. We still have the option of adding the fourth Nissa, Worldwaker because she is so powerful, but I’ve been liking the consistency with three so far. Voyaging Satyr is always an option as additional mana for a very mana-intensive deck, but we already have eight mana creatures so it wouldn’t be as impactful. On a strictly devotion basis, Swordwise Centaur seems like it might be a good addition. Not only is it an aggressive body but the double devotion is important as well.

[cardimage cardname='Nissa, Worldwaker'][cardimage cardname='Genesis Hydra']

I’m sure that Khans of Tarkir will provide us with more options for this deck, but as of writing this, no viable options have been spoiled. We most likely need to stick to mono green so we’ll have to see what cool new toys Khans provides us with for this deck.

If this deck does take the metagame by storm, Nissa could be our next $50 Standard card. Genesis Hydra is still undervalued as well, so I’d recommend picking those up while they are still under three dollars. Chord of Calling has come down a bit since it’s printing as well and that card is begging to be broken in the new format. If this deck takes off, all of the staples should see an increase in value, so be prepared.

Dredging

Next up, we have a deck forgotten by the community. Before M15, earlier in the season, there was a potent deck that was hard to answer. The rise of Mono-Black Devotion splashing green for Abrupt Decay drove it out of the metagame, but it will largely survive intact post-rotation.

This deck, G/B Dredge as we all called it, was one of my favorite decks of the year and not only is it viable, it’s getting some sweet new tools to make it better. Here’s the old list that I posted back in April and then the update from May. I wrote about it in April and May, so check out those two articles for more details.

G/B Dredge

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
3 Lotleth Troll
3 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Satyr Wayfinder
3 Herald of Torment
4 Nighthowler
2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
3 Shadowborn Demon
4 Nemesis of Mortals

Spells

4 Grisly Salvage
4 Commune with the Gods
2 Ultimate Price

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
9 Forest
7 Swamp

Sideboard

3 Mistcutter Hydra
3 Lifebane Zombie
3 Golgari Charm
2 Thoughtseize
2 Reaper of the Wilds
2 Pithing Needle

Nyx Dredge 2.0

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
2 Golden Hind
4 Lotleth Troll
4 Satyr Wayfinder
2 Herald of Torment
4 Nighthowler
2 Pharika, God of Affliction
2 Nyx Weaver
2 Jarad, Golgari Lich Lord
1 Rot Farm Skeleton
2 Shadowborn Demon
3 Nemesis of Mortals

Spells

4 Grisly Salvage
2 Commune with the Gods
2 Ultimate Price

Lands

4 Overgrown Tomb
4 Temple of Malady
2 Mana Confluence
6 Forest
4 Swamp

If you notice, we are losing quite a few pieces to this deck. There are some important cards that are going to rotate out, but what’s important here is that the core of the deck stays together.

The fact that we will still have Commune with the Gods, Satyr Wayfinder and Nyx Weaver to enable this Nighthowler strategy is a perfect starting point for this deck to continue into the new format.

Sultai Dredge

Creatures

4 Elvish Mystic
3 Sylvan Caryatid
4 Satyr Wayfinder
3 Nyx Weaver
1 Pharika, God of Affliction
2 Courser of Kruphix
2 Herald of Torment
4 Nighthowler
3 Nemesis of Mortals
3 Sidisi, Brood Tyrant

Spells

4 Commune with the Gods
2 Strength from the Fallen
2 Sultai Charm

Lands

4 Sultai Triland
4 Llanowar Wastes
4 Polluted Delta
2 Yavimaya Coast
4 Forest
3 Swamp
1 Island

This is just a rough sketch of what this deck might look like. There are only three new cards in this deck so far because they are the only two spoiled that might fit this strategy. They all seem strong but we don’t know what other options we will have to consider.

For example, Delve might be a great mechanic to include in this deck. Commune with the Gods is dumping a total of five cards in your grave yard and Satyr Wayfinder is putting three, so if there are good delve cards, that would synergize well with this strategy.

Another important part of the deck that is in flux is the manabase. Many writers have spent time digging into what players' mana might look like in the new metagame and this is my first attempt. The mana is going to be complex in the new format so be careful how you build yours.

It’s possible that this deck wants some number of temples but I couldn’t fit all of the lands I wanted to run into this deck. Finally, this could be a great Chord of Calling deck but I’m not sure it’s the right place for it. First of all, there are a number of must-include enablers to get your strategy going. If you add in Chord of Calling, there will be many draws where your spell-heavy hand doesn’t accomplish much. Still, Chord of Calling is so powerful it’s always worth considering as an addition in your green deck.

In case you have not seen the new cards yet, here’s what they do.

Sidisi, Brood Tyrant is the perfect new card to give this deck direction. Not only does she help mill yourself for cards like Nighthowler, but she also builds you a zombie army just for playing your deck! Many players might consider her a Commander-only card, and she does look insanely fun to play in that format, but all of her qualities combine into a powerful way to attack the Standard format as well.

I hope that Sultai provides us with more synergistic cards like Sidisi, but if not, she may be just what the self mill doctor ordered. A preorder price of $6 is something to keep your eye on with a powerful mythic enabler like this as well.

Some in the financial community have suggested this card will go down upon release, but I think that if she jumps right into this deck and sees play in the new format, that she will bump up in price. Double digits is not out of the question. Should she not find a home in Standard and does drop in price, I would wait for her to bottom out but still pick up lots of copies, especially in foil for the Commander crowd.

Sultai Charm may be the only charm spoiled so far, but it’s a great one and it fits right into this deck! Not only does it give you versatile options of killing one of their creatures, artifacts or enchantments, but it also can help dig you to the card you’re looking for while helping fill your graveyard all at the same time.

This spell seems great in Standard and should see a lot of play despite being three different colors of mana. I’m so glad they continued this cycle that started way back in Shards of Alara block. I hope they continue this trend with other cycles as well like the ultimatums.

If the set continues developing like the spoiler seems to indicate, there will be lots of viable strategies in the new format. Midrange green decks like that of the Block Pro Tour seem like they will be a part of the metagame, but not so oppressive as that event made them seem. Khans of Tarkir is looking great from all competitive and financial perspectives. I can’t wait to start brewing and playing with the new set. It can’t come soon enough for me.

Do you think either of these two decks will impact Khans Standard? What decks other decks do you think will show up? Let me know in the comments.

Until Next Time,

Get ready to, Unleash the Khans Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

The Future of Fetchlands

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Wooded-Foothills-Khans-of-Tarkir-Spoilers-190x263

Fetchlands. 'Nuff said.

It finally happened. And it shouldn't surprise you.

I don't mean in the abstract. We all knew fetchlands were coming at some point, so it's really easy to look at it now and say "Hey, I knew this would happen." But more than that, the signs were there about the Allied Fetches specifically.

You can read the full post here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Posted in Feature, Finance, Free3 Comments on The Future of Fetchlands

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KTK Limited Focus: An Early Look at Raid

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As of this writing, four cards have been revealed with the raid mechanic. Check them out below:

howlofthehorde (1) marduheartpiercer2

marduskullhunter marduwarshrieker'

We're not seeing a ton constructed playability here, but each of these cards seems perfectly fine, if not actively good, in limited play.

First, a few words need to be said regarding the design of this mechanic. Many, many new players just can't seem to remember that a second main phase exists, or at least they don't understand why it might be wise to wait to cast spells until after combat. The raid mechanic subtly teaches players that waiting until one's post-combat main phase is usually the right way to play, and that's really cool. Granted, not everyone is happy about this, but you can't please all the people all the time.

howlofthehorde (1)

Howl of the Horde is our first rare with raid. At worst, it's like a slightly-more-expensive-but-easier-to-cast Fork, except...oh, it's a sorcery. That makes it significantly worse than it might have otherwise been. Still, red aggro decks can close out games by suiciding in an attacker on turn five, then combining Howl with Lightning Strike (or the KTK equivalent) for nine damage at a cost of five mana and a couple cards. It's not insane, but there are possibilities.

marduheartpiercer2

I like Mardu Heart-Piercer. A 2/3 for four isn't great (you'd expect a 2/4 or a 3/3, in general), but an extra couple points of direct damage more than makes up for it. There will be times where you would love to get the damage before attacking, which limits this card's goodness, but it should still be solid for taking out utility creatures or finishing off creatures that blocked and didn't die in combat. Being able to go to the face for the last couple points isn't bad, either.

marduwarshrieker

This already passes the vanilla test as a 3/3 for four mana. Its raid ability will be extremely dependent on whether you can spend the mana. I could see this card becoming sort of a trap—if you wait until you have a good spell to spend the mana on, the 3/3 dude might not be as relevant as if you had just played it on turn four. This card will be solid just due to its body, so consider the raid ability upside that doesn't necessarily need to pay off.

marduskullhunter

This is my favorite card with raid that has been revealed so far. We don't know how many one-drops will be in the set (or if any of them will be good enough to run), but this doesn't have to be played on turn two to be relevant. In fact, waiting until you can get the last card out of your opponent's hand may be the best use of this card in limited. In Standard, I would not be surprised to see this guy in the same decks that are running Gnarled Scarhide and Tormented Hero. It's a reasonable body that provides an easy two-for-one, so I'm on board with Mardu Skullhunter.

I think raid is looking promising so far for limited play. What do you think?

 

 

Insider: Assessing the Twoo Effect

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Welcome back, readers!

Some of you may have heard of Mr. Travis Woo (a writer for Channel Fireball who happens to love brewing). He's had some solid success with his own brews and was a major proponent of the Living End deck in Modern.

The question we are asking ourselves today is what financial effect his decks and articles have on the MTG world. I realize that there are a lot of good MTG writers out there whose articles can affect the MTG finance world. However, few of them look at the game from an entirely different perspective--Woo's odd (some would say downright bizarre) perspective often creates a lot of excitement from his reader base.

I, personally, have played several of his deck ideas at FNMs simply because they were so different (for those interested, his Wolf-Run Black and Epic Experiment decks).

The reason we're looking for this potential “effect” is because he publishes weekly and if there is in fact a correlation between his article and a card's increase in price we could use that knowledge to get ahead of the game. One of the best ways to make money in a market economy is to find something with “cyclical” prices and simply buy when it's low and sell when it's high.

So now that we have our goal we need to figure out our game plan. In this case, we need to isolate a card (or cards) that he discusses in his weekly article that aren't being played elsewhere. The reason for this is simple; we don't want his card choices getting “splash” love from them just being good overall.

Myojin of Seeing Winds

Our first example is Myojin of Seeing Winds. This card was first discussed on August 11th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-modern-blue-devotion/).

myojin of seeing winds stock_correct

 

As we can see, this one has had a very minor price bump, but we aren't going to spend 66 cents to make 69 cents, we need some solid growth (50% or more at least) to justify the effort required to buy a lot of a card and then unload it (as unloading it may prove difficult and we might be forced to buylist copies)

Jalira, Master Polymorphist

Our second example is Jalira, Master Polymorphist. This card was first discussed on July 7th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-polymorphing-standard-and-modern/).

jalira, master polymorphist stock

This time we see no gains and instead see a decline followed by a flatline. Part of this is likely due to the fact that M15 had just come out and we've seen time and time again that almost all “new” cards in the set start out more valuable then they end up a month later (due to the fact that the first few weeks of a sets release supply is still very limited and demand is at it's peak).

Allosaurus Rider

Example #3 is Allosaurus Rider. It was first discussed on April 14th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-allosaurus-pod/).

allosaurus rider

This is just not looking good so far. Here's a third example in which any gains are minimal if anything.

March of the Machines

Our fourth example is March of the Machines. This card showed up on March 24th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-modern-march-madness/).

march of the machines stock

Yet again we see no real movement on the card after the article aired. This card does have several printings (as it appeared in both 10th Edition and Archenemy) so it's also plausible there was plenty in the supply to absorb any uptick in demand.

Seismic Assualt & Countryside Crusher

Our next two examples appeared side by side on March 17th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-lands-and-spells/). Both Countryside Crusher and Seismic Assault were four-of's and previously were the backbone of decks that have fallen out of favor.

And yet again we don't see any sort of price jump after this article released.

seismic assault stock

countryside crusher

Genesis Wave & Primal Command

Our next example's debuted on January 27th, 2014 in this article: (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-mono-green-aura-ramp/). This is one I remember coming out because there most certainly was an effect on these cards.

genesis wave

Primal Command

Here's our first example of an obvious “Twoo” Effect. There are several important things to take note of with these jumps. The Genesis Wave jump occurred two weeks before the article was posted, though in his article Travis discusses playtesting this deck a lot and it's likely that it leaked out early.

What's interesting is that the Primal Command jump didn't occur until the day of the article's posting. This implies that while people remembered getting overwhelmed by a Genesis Wave, they forgot the Primal Commands (or were unaware the deck ran them as a four-of). It is also important to note that GP Richmond was right around the corner and everyone was anticipating a second boon for Modern cards, so nobody wanted to miss out.

In his article Travis admits this deck is really powerful and that he was wary of writing it up before the GP. This is the kind of indicator that a deck isn't just a “flash in the pan”. Sure, most of his decks look like a lot of fun and the surprise factor can win you some games, but in the end you need to be doing something incredibly powerful in a format like Modern to truly have a shot at taking down a major event.

Summoner's Egg

Our ninth example comes from this article, (http://www.channelfireball.com/articles/woo-brews-eggsploring-modern/), posted on January 13th, 2014. Summoner's Egg was a new and creative way to cheat in an Emrakul in a format that has a really hard time getting rid of him.

summoner's egg stock

Here's another example of the “Twoo Effect”. This again confirms my previous point, in that when Travis really think he's broken a format it's because he's found a way to do something very powerful (and somewhat consistent). While turning people's lands into artifacts via Liquimetal Coating and having them die to March of the Machines is cute, being able to cheat fatties into play very quickly is just game winning.

Again, it's important to note that this jump occurred when everyone was high on Modern cards and nobody wanted to miss the next big thing. As you can see, while this card quadrupled in price in a day or two, demand wasn't strong enough and it eventually dropped back down to the $2 range.

The danger of this kind of spike is, unless you're selling into the hype or you undercut all competitors, you run the risk of buying a bunch of cards at $1 (or less) and being stuck with them as the easiest out (buylists) are often slow to catch up.

Conclusion

In conclusion we can agree that there is such a thing as the Twoo Effect and it can have a financial impact. However, we noticed that this effect is more rare than many might think, and is typically relegated to when the deck itself is doing something powerful or broken, as opposed to a more fun, inconsistent deck.

So when Travis posts an article on a new deck idea, it's always worth reading, but don't just jump on that hype train hoping to double/triple/quadruple your money because he's picked some older or obscure bulk rare to center a deck on. Instead make sure the deck is doing something ridiculously powerful (not just ridiculous) before investing your money into it.

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