Congratulations: you made it through the spring and summer doldrums and into August!

August, September and October are the best months for Magic Online speculation because this window—which stretches from the release of the core set through fall rotation—offers several reliable investment opportunities.

Today’s article will chart out how you should plan your investments over the next three months to maintain sufficient cash flow and maximize profits.

But first, let’s take a look at the big news this week: the return of Premier play to MTGO.

Premier Play Returns to MTGO

As Mike Turian notes:

Pro Tour Qualifiers (PTQ) and the Magic Online Championship Series (MOCS) events are both returning to Magic Online starting this August! We know that our players have been eagerly awaiting the return of these events as premier play is one of the key reasons that so many people play Magic Online. Premier play is a huge part of delivering awesome Magic experiences within Magic Online, so we are excited that Magic Online will again offer a path to the Pro Tour.

The article goes on to say that they have made significant improvements that will allow them to handle these events, including adding designated support staff that now have tools to resolve issues as they occur. They “have successfully run multiple test events with these improvements in place, including the Magic Online Championship Appreciation events, to ensure the best possible player experience when premier play returns to Magic Online.” I hope they are right, since there have been plenty of times when they said the system was ready and it could not handle premier-level events.

Here is a table of MOCS events for the next few months. I have highlighted the Legacy and Modern events, since we often see a run-up in singles prices on these formats whenever a MOCS is offered (this happens with Standard, but to a lesser extent since Standard is already the dominant format):

MTGO will once again offer invites to the Pro Tour, and will follow a similar two-tier system as the new paper qualifiers: “Magic Online PTQs will now consist of a set of Preliminaries that grant invitations to the PTQ Finals. Winners of PTQ Finals receive invitations to the associated Pro Tour, as well as the Pro Tour Challenge for that Pro Tour.” In an interview several weeks ago, Worth hinted at some changes, and here they are.

Here is the schedule for PTQ Finals for the February Pro Tour season on Magic Online (again, I have bolded the Constructed formats, which should get a bump that week…):

What does this all mean? First, it’s no surprise that Wizards is re-establishing premier play, since this has long been a priority, but the fact that they got it up and running so quickly after the v4 transition is a good sign. Premier play should bolster the value of online cards as they are linked once again to the Pro Tour—the true dream for most competitive Magic players.

This means that players that are primarily paper players will have a reason to maintain a digital collection. It's also possible that changes to paper PTQs will make online PTQs a more attractive path to the PT for many players (rather than having to travel twice to qualify.)

You remember how card prices fell after premier play was removed last year, right? In response to this announcement, I would expect an increase in collection values going forward (though it will happen gradually rather than suddenly.)

The wildcard remains v4—does it generally depress demand for MTGO? Could we still see a market pullback? So far we have averted a crash and the future for MTGO card values looks better than the present.

The Months Ahead

Sometimes it’s good to take a step back and assess what you are doing. This will help you plan to allocate your resources between today and tomorrow. The ideal scenario is when you can sell past specs at a profit to invest them into current specs, which allows your portfolio to compound.

There should be several investment "cycles" over the next couple months--for example, selling THS block boosters and M15 specs to invest in rotating card.

What’s our investment roadmap for the next few months?

There are several classes of investments we’ll look at: Theros Block Boosters, Theros Block Singles, M15 Boosters, M15 Singles, VMA Boosters, VMA Singles, Other Legacy/Vintage Singles, and Return to Ravnica Block and M14 singles, which rotate in October.

Here's the short and medium term outlook for each of these classes of investments:

• Theros Block Boosters: These are at an all-time low, with a draft set costing 6.5 tix. In the past, draft sets gravitate toward 10 or 11 tix, so we can expect growth. Payouts have switched to M15, so there are no more THS block boosters entering the market. And every time someone plays a THS block draft, the stock of boosters declines. Moreover, THS block singles will increase with redemption and rotation, raising the EV of this draft format, and with it pack prices. The trend will continue until Khans launches, and then take a pause until winter. All three Theros block sets are attractively priced right now, though there are pros and cons to each.
• Theros Block Singles: The indexes for THS, BNG and JOU are basically at their floor. According to MTG Goldfish, the paper paper versions of these sets are worth roughly twice the digital version, which will lead to heavy THS redemption, pulling singles out of the system, creating scarcity. Plus reduced THS drafting will reduce supply.

• M15 Boosters: In my last article I highlighted a great opportunity to spec on M15 boosters, and a number of us were able to take advantage. Kudos to the MTGO Forum for identifying that play. M15 prices continue to climb because of interest in drafting, even though Constructed payouts have switched to M15. That said, interest in drafting M15 will soon wane and pack prices should start to decline until they are 2.7-3.0 tix. That will be a good time to buy in.
• M15 Singles: Release events have put a lot of pressure on M15 prices, and they are dropping into an attractive range. We are nearing “peak drafting” for the set. Some M15 cards will break out at PT M15, but everything else should continue to slide for a week or two. Redemption won't kick in for another couple weeks so there is lots of supply and little demand. We’ve entered the window for picking up these cards, as Sylvain details in his article (which provides a nuanced strategy for when to buy certain categories of cards.) Once M15 drafting tapers off and redemption kicks in, prices will start to rise.

• VMA Boosters: Prices dropped to 6 tix on these because they are still awarded for Legacy constructed, even as VMA drafting pauses while people play M15. Once interest in M15 wanes, people will switch back to VMA and THS drafts and booster prices will head back towards 7 tix. Near the end of drafting in late September, we should see VMA packs drop in price since people don’t want to be left with undraftable packs. But if history is any guide, they will have a second life. Once VMA packs are no longer available in stores and from events these pack prices should rise well above their “rational” value, since this will be the only way left to crack a Lotus. I can imagine VMA packs hitting 10-15 tix like old Masters Edition and Modern Masters packs
• VMA Singles: Right now prices on high-demand singles are up because M15 has reduced the rate of VMA pack opens. Once interest in M15 drafting declines, VMA drafting will pick up again and VMA singles will decline in price. Then, a couple weeks before VMA shuts off, there will be a race by people to get these cards before they disappear forever. I expect we will see prices rise quickly during the last week of VMA drafting and once these events are shut down. Prices may also rise in advance of the Sept 6 MOCS event.

• Vintage & Legacy Singles: These are a major question marks for me. I was an advocate of loading up on staples in the run-up to VMA, and today Vintage and Legacy have become real formats on MTGO, bringing many singles through the roof. This dynamic has been driven by an influx of cheap staples from VMA and prize payouts in VMA packs for Legacy and Vintage constructed events. These payouts made these formats the highest EV available on MTGO. Grinders, and MTGO players in general, are sensitive to the EV of constructed formats, and this high EV has supported high prices on Vintage staples. What happens in October when VMA goes off sale? Will Wizards continue to support these formats through strong prize payouts? If it does not, will the Vintage and Legacy market ratchet back? For these reasons I think that Vintage and Legacy specs hold significant risk, though they could hold a strong payoff if Wizards continues to support these formats.
• Return to Ravnica Block & M14 singles: These cards rotate at the start of October with the release of Khans of Tarkir. Traditionally, singles from rotating sets see a steady decline and hit bottom shortly after rotation. However, some sets have hit bottom weeks before rotation, as redeemers and speculators buy in early and keep prices from following their natural curve (see the MTG Goldfish charts on INS and AVR). I think you will want to keep a close eye out starting in September. I suspect that some especially coveted eternal cards like Abrupt Decay and Deathrite Shaman will not wait for rotation to hit their floors, but most cards will still be at their lowest price after rotation in October.

Here’s what I see ahead:

I'm going to try something I've never done before and lay out a rough road map for the months ahead. Please note: the following dates are rough landmarks--be sure to use common sense and consult the terrain, as they say.  Circumstances will inevitably change based on prize payouts, flashbacks and other announcements. And I certainly have some of these date ranges wrong -- as Yogi Berra said, it's hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

With those caveats, here's a sketch of the months ahead:

Aug 2-Aug 9:  M15 release events are ongoing. Both Theros block boosters and singles are at their historic lows.

•  BUY THS block cards and boosters. Pro Tour M15 is going on, and there will be opportunities to catch cards before (and as) they spike. BUY MMA boosters, since they are likely to appreciate.
• HOLD VMA boosters.
• WATCH many Modern cards, some of which will fall into an attractive price range.
• SELL into Pro Tour hype on anything from RTR block (e.g. sell into the rise on Pack Rat, Legion Loyalist, etc). Also SELL any M15 rares you draft that you can get a decent price on.

Aug 9-16:   M15 cards have now flooded the market and we are at “peak drafting” for M15. This is a good time to load up on a basket of M15 mythics, as Sylvain recommends in this article. Stay away from M15 bulk mythics right now, since they will continue to fall.

• BUY M15 mythics

Aug 16-23:  Continue buying M15 mythics, including bulk mythics. Some M15 rares may fall into attractive prices. VMA cards may start to drop as people tire of M15 and we see a rise in VMA drafting.

• BUY M15, including bulk mythics and bulk rares.
• WATCH VMA singles.
• SELL VMA boosters as they approach 7 tix.

Aug 23-30:  People will continue to shift toward VMA drafting. We should see a rise in VMA boosters and continued pressure on VMA singles, especially rares. Non VMA Legacy staples may rise in anticipation of the MOCS events on Sept 6.

• WATCH VMA.
• HOLD M15 singles.
• WATCH M15 boosters and purchase if they hit 2.7 or less.

Aug 31-Sept 6: Non-VMA Legacy cards should rise in anticipation of Sept 6 MOCS. VMA Legacy cards may rise as well.

Sept 6-13: We start to enter the window for picking up rotating rares at low prices.

• WATCH THS block boosters and rares and consider selling as they  increase.
• BUY (possibly) VMA cards, since they could hit bottom here.
• WATCH Return to Ravnica block eternal staples and don't get miss a chance to buy in.

Sept 14-28: THS block boosters and rares should be recovering. VMA singles could start to rise in price as people see that there's only a couple weeks left to get their Power 9 and dual lands. M15 prices should be on the road to recovery.

• WATCH VMA singles.
• SELL (possibly) THS positions and M15 positions.

Oct 1-Oct 3: Khans pre-release is nigh. VMA packs may decline as drafting nears an end--may offer a good opportunity to buy in.

• BUY (possibly) VMA boosters.

Oct 3:  Khans of Tarkir Prerelease Events begin. VMA drafting ends. Release events cause price drops across the board. Uncertain future for Vintage and Legacy singles depending on how WOTC chooses to support these formats.

October: Return to Ravnica and M14 cards will bottom out after rotation and before redemption starts pulling out surplus supply. Booster payout switches away from M15 packs. Opportunity to flip Khans boosters between pre-release and release events.

Some of the timing will be off, but you get a sense of how I see the general trends. Interested in your feedback in the comments about what I've missed.

-Alexander Carl (@thoughtlaced)