Spoiler Spotlight: Avacyn, Guardian Angel

Posted on June 27, 2014 by Danny Brown

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Fans of legendary angels will be excited to see the new M15 incarnation of a character originally introduced in Innistrad block: Avacyn, Guardian Angel.

There's a few things that jump out immediately here: this is a rare, which means it will not have the financial upside of its predecessor, Avacyn, Angel of Hope. The mana cost is very color intensive too: Avacyn 2.0, if she sees play, will be in base-white decks and base-white decks only. And in my opinion, this art is a strict upgrade over the old version. The jury's still out on the frame, though—I want to hold the new cards before I proclaim love or hate.

So is Avacyn, Guardian Angel likely to see a lot of play? At minimum, she's a five-mana 5/4 flyer with vigilance, which passes the vanilla test quite nicely. Her activated abilities are upside at that point, which means at the very least, Avacyn 2.0 is a bomb in Limited. That could be said of a lot of less-than-stellar cards, though.

In Commander, Avacyn 1.0 is probably more appealing to the majority of players. Guardian Angel's abilities to protect other creatures as well as her controller could be powerful mana sinks in the format, but she doesn't protect herself and requires a lot of mana to be at her most effective. Dedicated angel fans will want a copy in their decks, but it's unlikely folks are going to be switching generals of their Avacyn, Angel of Hope, decks.

This is no Baneslayer Angel, which means the possibility of seeing Modern play is out. It's nowhere close to even thinking about the chance of an opportunity of seeing Legacy play even one time.

So Standard is really the place where Avacyn has a chance to make a name for herself. The heavy-white mana cost is definitely a deterrent to this possibility, but a control player with lots of mana at her disposal could easily keep herself alive while also killing opponents with a vigilant flying angel. Whether that's a better line than just playing Elspeth, Sun's Champion, is questionable at best. Control decks don't really need or want too many win conditions.

What about in an aggro deck? It would have to be a white-based weenie deck to accommodate the mana requirements, but a five-drop isn't exactly what those decks want. And there's not really a midrange deck in Standard that plays a mana base with enough white to support this card. If Avacyn, Guardian Angel, is going to see play in Standard, it will have to be in a new deck. We'll see if Khans of Tarkir offers anything that will make this more attractive, but don't expect the card to see much play before then.

It says a lot about the recent power creep of creatures that a five-mana 5/4 vigilant flying angel with upside is probably not good enough for competitive Magic outside of Limited. Without an immediate impact on the board, Avacyn 2.0 is like many creatures—she boasts powerful stats but has no immediate, unique effect on the game. This hasn't proved good enough in recent years.

With SCG starting preorders at $2.99, I expect this to be near-bulk at best once the set has been drafted for a while. At that point, Avacyn 2.0 will be worth picking up as a throw-in in trades, since angels will always be popular with casual players, and this one could be worth a few bucks a couple years down the road. But despite the character having a popular first incarnation, don't expect big things from Avacyn, Guardian Angel in anything other than kitchen-table games.

Have any thoughts on the playability of Avacyn 2.0 in your favorite format? Sound off below!

Spoiler Spotlight: Ob Nixilis, Live and Unshackled

Posted on June 27, 2014June 27, 2014 by Jason Alt

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I've mentioned Ob Nixilis, Unshackled before, but I'm not going to stop just because the editorial staff at QS keeps begging me to.

"Jason," they say, "what more could there possibly be to say about this card?"

Well, I will tell you.

Let's start with a sample decklist for EDH.

General - Maralen of the Mornsong

Decklist

1 Ad Nauseam

1 Sickening Dreams

1 Glacial Chasm

96 Swamp

Boom. That's an actual deck. You win games with this deck.

How is this for a slice of fried gold?

General - Maralen of the Mornsong

Decklist

1 Ad Nauseam

1 Sickening Dreams

1 Ob Nixilis, Unshackled

1 Glacial Chasm

95 Swamp

This deck is clearly superior.

You don't even have to run a douchebaggy version of Maralen to benefit from Ob Nixilis providing them with the unflattering choice of "either lose 3 life and don't draw or Pay 13 life and sac a dude to get a card" each turn. That's durty. A Maralen deck with fewer swamps and more nasty cards like Polluted Bonds and Subversion is sure to mess people up.

What does his ability imply? A reprint of fetchlands coming soon? I wouldn't count on it, especially given the language Aaron Forsythe used on his Brainstorm Brewery appearance, but it may imply other sorts of fetching in Khans of Tarkir. This ability in the context of the current blocks is suspicious and it will get people thinking about what the future will hold.

This is a $4 preorder on Star City which implies that the foils should start around $10 if people are short-sighted. If you can get the foils for roughly twice the non-foil price before a foil price is established, you're lucky and I would do it. These aren't exactly foil Griselbrands given their lack of applicability in Legacy and probably Modern, but this is a big, sexy demon, and big, sexy demons go in EDH decks making the foils a commodity. I'd have liked to see this cycle of legendary creatures at mythic from a finance standpoint, but what can you do? Them's the breaks.

The real question is whether Ob is good enough for Modern. It's good combined with Ghost Quarter and Path to Exile. Is there perhaps a junk deck ready for him? Lotus Cobra can go a long way toward ramping him out quickly, but cobra wasn't surviving all that often. The Gifts Ungiven reanimator lists were running cards like Haakon, Stromgald Scourge and Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite which seem like solid choices. Is there room for Ob Nixilis in the 75 of a deck like this? Is it better than what we have?

Effects that prevent opponents from doing things are historically good when attached to creatures. Aven Mindcenser hit $12 as an uncommon while Mindlock Orb was a bulk rare. Is Ob a Mindcenser or and orb? Orb Nixilis? Only time will tell. All I know is that Kaalia of the Vast wants this, Maralen of the Mornsong wants it, and people who want to crack fetches, get their land from Path to Exile, Ghost Quarter or Expedition Map don't want this and, to quote Jason Lee in Dogma, "I'm a %&^(ing DEMON" and that has to count for something.

Spoiler Spotlight: Nissa, Worldwaker

Posted on June 27, 2014June 27, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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I will freely admit that when I first looked at Nissa, she didn't blow me away. Sure, it was cool to have her back and this time we didn't have to mess around with Nissa's Chosen, but did she really have much else going for her?

First glances are just that, and I think I've changed my tune a bit with the Worldwaker. Let's break her down.

Five Mana; Three Loyalty

Okay, this is certainly not setting the world on fire (ore really awakening it). When we have a new Jace that people don't even think is good that costs four mana and will have six loyalty after you activate it, Nissa kind of looks bad. But the two abilities more than make up for this downside.

Basically, we have something rare here: A planeswalker with two ways to protect itself. Nissa's first ability makes any untapped lands you have into blockers to keep her alive, or you can use them to immediate get in there, Koth-style. But let's say it's Turn 5 and you slam Nissa and making a land into a creature won't exactly save her. Well, how about the ability to cast something else?

She can do that too. Obviously the second +1 is more powerful while Shocklands are in the format, but even after that Nissa's second ability will pack a punch in the decks she finds a home in. This isn't exactly a Time Walk, but it does allow you to essentially have nine mana to play with on Turn 5 if you've constructed your deck around Nissa. Play her, untap the lands you just used, play another creature to protect her. Profit from there. I like.

The ultimate, of course, does what Planeswalker ultimates do: probably ends the game. If a Wrath of God variant shows up in M15 or the fall set, then the ultimate isn't guaranteed to win the game. Against most other decks, though, it is. And that's good enough for me.

What do you think? Is Nissa primed to take off in Standard, or will the Worldwaker remain a sleeper?

Spoiler Spotlight: Ajani Steadfast Makes Three (in Standard)

Posted on June 27, 2014June 27, 2014 by Danny Brown

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After Journey into Nyx introduced the game's first green-white planeswalker, Ajani, Mentor of Heroes, nobody expected yet another new version of Ajani in the following core set. But the spoiler is official. Meet Ajani Steadfast:

Astute Vorthoses will note that Ajani Steadfast is sporting the robe previously rocked by the now-deceased Elspeth, Sun's Champion. Together with the continuation of the Garruk's curse storyline from Innistrad block, this core set is more focused on the game's storyline than any of its predecessors. If this continues moving forward, the trend of several new planeswalkers per core set may be something we see on a yearly basis. Maybe it's WOTC's way of fighting the traditional summer lull.

Until Magic 2014 rotates, we're looking at a Standard environment with three different Ajanis. Where Steadfast fits into the format remains to be seen, but he has some interesting utilities working for him. With only one colored mana symbol, Ajani 5.0 is easy to splash. Being able to tick up to five loyalty on turn four bodes well for his chances of surviving on the battlefield, but do his abilities make enough of an impact? Let's take a look at each one in depth.

The +1

First of all, it's important to note that this says "up to one," meaning you can still activate the ability on an empty board. This effect seems most powerful in a deck looking to get out one big threat. First strike means it's unlikely to die in combat, lifelink makes it difficult for your opponent to race, and vigilance means the creature can block and defend Ajani. He doesn't defend himself if you have no creatures, but if you do, he lets you continue beating down while holding something back to deter enemy forces.

In a weenie deck trying to go wide rather than tall, Ajani's first ability is less impactful. It can get one of your creatures through unscathed, but the life swing won't be as big and it does nothing to pump the rest of your team. Still, adding loyalty counters lets us better utilize Ajani's second ability...

The -2

Putting a +1/+1 counter on each of your creatures is a known quantity, and how good it is is wholly dependent on how many creatures you have on the battlefield. The weenie deck that doesn't get as much from Ajani's first ability is loving this second one. But that's not the part that sticks out, is it?

What we really want to know is how good the other clause is. This is the first time we've seen an effect that specifically adds loyalty counters to planeswalkers, and the possibilities are intriguing. In a Bant superfriends list, having an active Ajani Steadfast with an active Kiora, the Crashing Wave, means a free Explore every turn. Until rotation, we'll be able to use Jace, Architect of Thought's second ability twice without sending him to the graveyard. Pumping a bunch of tokens plus getting Elspeth, Sun's Champion, one turn closer to ultimate will speed things along for decks looking to end the game with the six-drop 'walker. Because Ajani 5.0 is splashable, he can be combined with almost any planeswalker in Standard, most of which would't mind some help reaching ultimate a turn or two sooner.

The -7

Ajani Steadfast's ultimate is far from an instant game winner, but it certainly makes losing the game a lot harder, at least against opponents who are attacking your life total. Decks focused on one big threat will have a hard time beating you if you manage to fire this ability off, but weenie decks still have a chance, as each individual creature counts as its own source. But if you were gaining a bunch of life from Ajani's first ability, chances are that even a large army is going to take a few turns to finish the job.

Protecting planeswalkers' loyalty seems less important here. If you were able to fire off Ajani's ultimate, chances are your planeswalkers are well-protected against opposing creatures. This does make burn spells less potent against 'walkers, though, which is not unimportant. But remember, Hero's Downfall doesn't care about this ability at all.

The Verdict

Ajani Steadfast could be a cog in the machine of a few different decks, but the card's power level is completely dependent on the creatures and planeswalkers you already have on the board. Cards that encourage you to overextend are tough to break, though we can't overlook the fact that Ajani has some unique abilities not replicated by any other card.

With preorders bottoming out at around $18, Ajani 5.0 is available for lower than the initial price of many new planeswalkers, but unless it's a key part of a metagame-defining deck, the card will likely dip below $10 before long. If you believe in its ability to dominate Standard, feel free to get your copies, but I'm holding off on this one.

What do you think of the new Ajani? Let us know in the comments below!

Insider: Event Horizon V

Posted on June 27, 2014January 17, 2022 by Dylan Beckham

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Modern. You devil, you.

Don't get me wrong. Modern is absolutely still growing. The traditional model of what to expect during a Pro Tour Qualifier season is the issue here.

Let's face it. The game has changed. The game is changing. Still. The expectations of the past no longer apply to the present.

"The most powerful thing is the ability to make something visible or invisible to someone else." -Dylan Beckham

This was a comment I made in the last few days. It's ironic that something I said concerning a completely unrelated matter is taking place also in the Magic world. The fact is someone is holding their breath. It's as clear as day. Actually, it might not even be holding their breath. It might be hyperventilating at this point. Prices are going down, after all.

We're getting ready to head into the fourth week of the season. The results are still trickling in, but from what I've been seeing at the top tables, there really are no real surprises. Prices haven't changed very much with the start of the new season. There are some that are clearly getting a push, but that's more from their play in Standard as well as being inherently powerful cards. I'm looking at you, Courser of Kruphix and Eidolon of the Great Revel.

So what does this mean?

My fellow QS writer, Corbin Hosler, talked shortly about The Ground Shook last week. He notices the downward trend or simple stagnation of some Modern staples, and while we don't share the same semi-pessimism, he hit the nail on the head. Even this last weekend at the 160-person PTQ I attended in Fort Worth, there wasn't even a mention of the new IQ coming into effect.

This might simply be because it is a rather lengthy distance out. It might be because--here at least--we're going to be on hiatus from Modern until late July, and then only one more before the end of the season. It might be because the first three weeks of the season in Texas was back-to-back-to-back qualifiers. I can tell you now, my wallet is hurting from all the tournaments, travelling and days off. Fortunately for me, I can budget effectively.

But can you imagine the cost of that for the average player? Much less the average player who works during the weekends? Of course there would be a little post-coital glow about this time. For most, this was where the hype was. These last three weekends. Just as much as everything is getting started everywhere else. We're kind of screaming "FIRST!" and rolling over to light our cigarette now.

All while the only real financial news to report is that Eidolon of the Great Revel is still climbing. If you recall, #3 on last week's list. Snapcaster Mage has flattened out. Tarmogoyf has too. Blood Moon is still slowly climbing, and there was a suggestion after last week's article that Hurkyl's Recall might be seeing such a boon just from Vintage Masters finally premiering on MTGO.

Honestly though, the strangest thing has happened: The exact expectations going into this season have held serve.

When everything is as expected, there's no surprise to see coming. That is a true peculiarity for Magic: The Finance. We strive on the unexpected. Pouncing before the next person can. We want there to be volatility, excitement, and panic. We want people to believe there is a down trend. "WE'RE BUYING, RIGHT HERE!"

By now we should have seen something break the format. But it hasn't. It is very much a known quantity with a wide variety of playable decks. It is a deck builder's paradise. In the last two events I have played against the same deck a whopping three times.

In other words, out of 16 matches I have played six decks that were the same. That's a ridiculously wide open field. So maybe, what we're experiencing right now is a market place that is just widely diffused. There's no true laser pointing the way to go.

Or, everyone is just holding their breath. I guess we'll see.

-Till Next Time

Insider: How to Generate Value Playing Vintage and Legacy Constructed

Posted on June 27, 2014January 17, 2022 by Adam Yurchick

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Vintage Masters has hit Magic Online, and Vintage constructed events are in full swing. A few Vintage Daily events fire each day, and there's a lot of action in the 8-player and 2-man queues.

Due to the relatively high value of Vintage Masters packs and the structure of constructed tournament payouts, these Vintage events provide significantly better value than comparable events in other constructed formats. Legacy constructed events have been changed to match the Vintage entry fee and payout, so they too offer significant value.

Tournament Payout Expected Value Analysis

I've done some simple comparative analysis of Magic Online tournaments with regards to expected value:

8-Player Queues

8-player events cost 6 tickets to enter. With 8 players, that equals 48 tickets in entry fees.

A Vintage or Legacy 8-player event pays out 3 Vintage Masters boosters to first, 2 boosters to second, and 1 booster to third and fourth places. As of writing, Goatbots pays just under 7 tickets--6.96--for a Vintage Masters booster.

These Vintage 8-player events pay out 7 Vintage Masters boosters worth a total of 48.72 tickets, which, minus 48 in entry fees, equates to a small overlay worth 0.72 tickets split between the 8 entrants. This number will change depending on the exact booster price of the moment, but the point is that these events offer a small overlay, compared to the alternative of significant rake.

A Standard, Modern, Theros Block Constructd, or Pauper 5-3-2-2 queue pays out a total of 3 Theros, 4 Born of the Gods, and 5 Journey Into Nyx Boosters, which, at the time of writing, Goatbots is buying for a total of 27.28 tickets. At 48 total tickets in entry, that's a significant house rake of 43%

2-Player Queues

2-Player heads-up queues always offer negative value, but, nevertheless, Vintage and Legacy queues are better value than their Standard and Modern counterparts:

Entry for both players is 4 tickets to enter each, and paying out 1 Vintage Masters booster to the winner, the Vintage/Legacy 2-player queues effectively have a rake of around 0.5 on 4 tickets, or 12.5%.

2-player queues in Standard or Modern cost 2 tickets entry each, but pay out a booster of Journey into Nyx with a buy price averaging below 2 tickets, meaning a rake of over 50%.

Daily Events

Daily Events cost 6 tickets to enter, and pay only 4-0 and 3-1 finishers. They don't have a set number of entrants, but the pairings math works out so that, on average, only five people get paid for every 16 entries--one 4-0 and four 3-1 finishers. One 0-4 , four 1-3, and 6 2-2 finishers leave with nothing.

Vintage and Legacy events pay out Vintage Masters boosters, 6 to the 4-0 and 2 to the 3-1s, meaning an average of 14 packs Vintage Masters packs in payout per 16 players. At 6 ticket entry and a pack price of 6.96, that equates to 97.44 tickets in payout for each 98 tickets in entry fees, a tiny rake.

Standard and Modern Daily Events pay out 3 Theros, 4 Born of the Gods, 4 and Journey Into Nyx boosters to 4-0 finishers, and 2 Theros, 2 Born of the Gods, and 2 Journey Into Nyx boosters to the 3-1 finishers. This equates to 11 Theros, 12 Born of the Gods, and 12 Journey Into Nyx boosters, with an average bot buylist value of 2.66, 2.5, and 1.86 respectively, for a total of 81.58 in payout. With 96 in entry, that's a rake of 15%

Value Summary

The most reliable and profitable option for grinding is to play 8-player queues, which fire throughout the day and offer an overlay.

Vintage Masters and the influx of new cards has greatly increased the popularity of Legacy 8-player queues, and Vintage queues fire quite often. Through these events, there is a lot of value to capture for the winning player. And with an existing overlay, achieving any win percentage higher than 50% would generate significant gains.

It's clear that Vintage and Legacy events are a better value proposition than playing other constructed events online. Each day, Vintage and Legacy constructed 8-player events fire with demand. In addition, there are currently three Vintage Daily events, firing at 8:30am, 6:30am, and 9:30pm EST, and four Legacy Daily events, firing at 10:00am 2:00pm, 7:30pm, and 11:00pm EST.

There are also Vintage Premier events scheduled for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday at 8:30pm EST, and Legacy Premier events scheduled for Friday at 2:30pm EST, and Saturday and Sunday at 4:30pm.

Currently, Vintage and Legacy Premier events do not seem to reach the required 33 players to fire, but due to the high price of Vintage Masters boosters, they would offer a very significant value. At the 33 required players, 10 tickets entry per player, with a set payout of 83 total boosters , these events would offer a very significant overlay of approximately 250 tickets on the 330 in entry fees, approximately 75% overlay, making them the highest value events on the Magic Online platform.

With such ridiculous value, it’s a shame they do not fire, but I expect the trend cannot continue for long with so much value being left on the table. In fact, if these events do start firing with regularity, they would play a part in lowering the value of Vintage Masters packs system-wide.

Extracting Maximum Value from 8-player Queues

Maximizing Value in 8-player queues comes in two ways--increasing win-rate and increasing the amount of events played.

Unlike loading up poker tables or firing off Standard 8-players, Vintage and Legacy 8-player events do not fire often enough to offer an endless supply of events to join, and they often feature a significant wait time. There is often an opportunity to join multiple events at once, but given the relative complexity of the formats, playing three or more tournaments is quite difficult, and would assuredly lower the win-rate by some degree in each match. For those capable and interested in playing more than one event to increase hourly rate, I'd recommend sticking to just two events to test the waters.

It's clear that in the case of Vintage and Legacy queues, the best way to maximize value is to maximize win-rate.

Maximizing Win-Rate

Maximizing win-rate comes in two ways--playing optimally and playing the optimal deck.

Playing optimally comes from things like knowledge, experience and focus. Focus is the most variable, and to achieve the highest focus, one needs to be completely absorbed in a game. Playing more than one event necessarily decreases focus and win-rate, but not necessarily enough to make multi-tabling a worse proposition if the increase in volume makes up for the decrease in win-rate.

The other major factor in win-rate is in choosing the optimal deck for that tournament--or metagaming--which is the deck-selection process everyone is used to going through before any event. The ideal deck for an 8-player event is going to be the ideal deck when matched up against the 7 other players. Decklists from the 8-player queues are not publicly shared online, so predicting the metagame is more difficult.

8-Player Metagame

One way to get an idea of the 8-player queue metagame is by observation, or trial by fire. Play events, start keeping track of data, and create your own metagame database. This is time consuming, costly, and simply inefficient for predicting a metagame when just beginning. But over time, and given enough data entries, it's going to provide a good, realistic look at what your are playing against when it comes to an average tournament and is therefore very valuable.

When constructing this database, I would also keep a log of time and day of the week, which can be used to create a chart of the metagame at various times of day. Luckily, MTGO saves a log played games, which can be referenced later for collecting data.

Practically, one can look at the results from Daily Events and extrapolate it to the 8-player metagame. Decklist are posted by the MTGO team here: tournament decklists

Decklists are aggregated here by mtgGoldfish:

Daily Events provide a solid picture of the 8-player metagame, but, in general, 8-player events are filled with slightly faster decks more conducive to double or triple queuing, and, even moreso, they are filled with cheaper decks on average, courtesy of grinders just looking to extract the most value from Magic Online, not necessarily get engrossed in the Vintage or Legacy format.

For that reason, Dredge is more common in Vintage 8-player events than normal, due to its low cost of around 300 tickets, making it the only bargain deck in a format where decks regularly cost between 1000 and 2000 tickets.

In Legacy, Dredge is also a bargain and has a lot of crossover between Vintage and Legacy, so many choose that archetype for their first forays into Eternal formats.

I'd recommend filling a Vintage 8-player sideboard with upwards of 8 graveyard hate cards. The Artifact-based prison deck Stax (or MUD) is one of the most powerful yet simple decks in the format, and it too composes a significant portion of the metagame, so I'd be sure to pack a selection of artifact-hate in the sideboard as well.

In Legacy, take special care against Burn, which, at under 100 tickets, is the cheapest competitive deck in the format, as well as one of the easiest to multi-queue.

In short, showing extra attention to budget decks, particularly through sideboard hate, will lead to increased win-rates.

Wrapping-up

Vintage Masters has changed the previous tournament entry fee and payout structure for Magic Online Legacy Events and has introduced the Vintage format to Magic Online with an identical tournament structure to Legacy events. Due to the relatively high price of Vintage Masters boosters and the details of the payout structure, this entry fee and payout structure provides significantly greater value than comparable events in Standard, Modern, Pauper, and Block Constructed formats.

This greater value can be found across events, including Daily Events and 8-player events, the latter of which generates a value overlay and has the distinction of being the highest-value event found on Magic Online. Vintage and Legacy Premier events offer a huge value overlay, but do not fire with any regularity.

The 8-player queues are the only firing events online that generate value and are thus truly +EV. I recommend these events for anyone who enjoys grinding and is looking for a way to reliably and profitably increase their Magic Online bankroll.

I'd be eager to discuss and create more Vintage and Legacy content, so please let me know in the comments if you liked this article and what you would like to read about!

-Adam

M15 Spoilers 06/27/14 – Jace, the Living Guildpact and More

Posted on June 27, 2014June 27, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Sweet Jesus have I got a big mixed bag for you. First, the bad.

Jace, The Living Guildpact

"Please make a new Jace and make him terrible" - No one

An astute observer noticed that the blank card frame for Jace spoiled earlier had a 0 ability as his second ability and therefore Jace Beleren was ruled out. That was a nice catch.

It was also WRONG.

This jace has a -3 second ability, but he might as well not because this Jace is a turd. In a set littered with great new card, this is a perennial disappointment. This is a stocking full of coal.

Who wants to mill a potentially good card?

Who wants to pay 60% of their planeswalker's starting loyalty to Boomerang?

It didn't need to be this way, folks. Every jace ever is better than this. They could have reprinted one of them.

I don't know which comic book artist or Indie game designer or Firefly cast member designed this card, but it sucks. Expect it to presell for $25+. Expect a lot of people to laugh.

He's likely to see play because he has a bit of card-selection ability, he has a decent starting loyalty and because Jace, Architect of Thought is rotating, but I'd wait to buy in closer to $15 than $25 if you can.

Hushwing Gryff

Sweet sassy molassy.

This card is GREAT!

It's an Aven Mindcenser exactly with a different skill set! This is a real, actual card! This is bonkers! And it's non-mythic! I can scarcely contain my elation. Compared to Jace, this is a radical reversal of designership. This card makes me love Magic again. You may not have noticed, but I hated Magic about 30 seconds ago. All is forgiven.

Constricting Sliver

Meh. This costs too much mana.

Life's Legacy

Remember Momentous Fall? Remember how we all dubbed it "Momentous Fail"? Well this is a Sorcery. If there's any effect you want to do at sorcery speed, it's sacrificing a creature.

Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth

I guess they were tired of this card being worth money.

They were also tired of mono-black being so under-equipped with only Thoughtseize, Pack Rat, Nightveil Specter, Grey Merchant of Asphodel, Hero's Downfall and Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx that it finished a paltry 1st and 2nd at the latest GP that they decided to throw it a bone. Thanks, Wizards.

Preeminent Captain

I hope there are good soldiers in Khans of Tarkir.

Shivan Reef, Llanowar Wastes, Caves of Koilos, Battlefield Forge and Yavimaya Coast

I said to pick these up a few weeks back. I didn't say it because I thought they would ever be standard legal. Now we get to see what the elegant dance between increased demand and increased supply is going to do to the price of Shivan Reef. I'm not making pronouncements, I'm taking notes. You should, too.

This is a real mixed bag. With the set nearing full spoilage, what colors look good for draft? What about sealed? What are you building around in standard? Sound off below.

Jace in Magic 2015: What We Know

Posted on June 26, 2014June 26, 2014 by Kelly Reid

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What info do we have?

The mock-up from MythicSpoiler.com shows plus, zero and minus loyalty abilities. The mock-up from MagicSpoiler.com, which shows two pluses and a minus. Frankly, I think that this information can be safely discarded. These are mock-ups, not official previews. No information should be drawn from them. Correct me if I'm wrong about the source of these images, of course. The images are below.

Other than this info, all we have is the art. That's not much to go on.

What are our choices?

Here are the four Jaces that have been printed in Planeswalker form so far:

Jaces of Magic

Is it Jace, the Mind Sculptor?

No. A thousand times no. Jace TMS is banned in Modern, was banned in Standard when he was legal, and ruins games and friendships. So I'm willing to say that if Jace, the Mind Sculptor is in Magic 2015, I'll eat one with a knife and fork. And put it on YouTube.

Probability: Zero.

Financial Implications: End of the freakin' world as we know it. WOTC have lost their minds.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, the Mind Sculptor

Is it Jace Beleren?

I'd venture to guess not. Thought we do have Liliana Vess, the original Lorwyn version, making a reappearance, I think that Jace Beleren is a bit too un-sexy for a core set. Compared to the bombastic abilities of the other Planeswalkers seen so far, he just doesn't fit the mold. Also, the others previewed are all 4- and 5-drops. This Jace is a 3.

Probability: 1/10.

Financial Implications: Increase in supply + increase in demand (now that it's standard-legal) = not much. You'll have a harder time getting them out of binders because now they'll likely be staples, and you won't want to buylist the ones you trade for anyway, since the spreads will probably drop.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace Beleren

Is it Jace, Architect of Thought?

In a word: maaaaybe. The extra "aaaa"s are for my skepticism. If you look closely at the art, the guild symbols of Ravnica are pictured in the background. Jace AOT was printed in Return to Ravnica, and was also reprinted in Duel Decks: Jace vs Vraska, which was also Ravnica-themed. He honestly feels a bit weak for a core set, and core sets are generally catered to casual players. He's just not too exciting. Also, he was just reprinted in a Duel Deck, and is already Standard legal.

Probability: 2/10. Only because of the art.

Financial Implications: This would be a third printing of a card that was going to rotate but now will not. Bleh. Quit toying with my emotions.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Architect of Thought

Maybe it's Jace, Memory Adept?

I'd buy that. And so would casual players, who for some inexplicable reason love Mill Decks. JMA is a 5-drop, which puts him on par with the other PWs. He's got a zero ability, if we want to lend any credence to the MythicSpoiler.com mock-up. Most importantly, though, he has abilities that make casual players happy. Mill 1, draw a card is good. Even new players "get" that drawing cards is good. But Mill 10 for no loss of loyalty? OMFG, buy all the M15 packs!

But he's been in M12, M13 and M14. Isn't it time to change it up? I just don't think they'll print him a fourth time. Not when they're making a new Nissa and a new Ajani.

Probability: 5/10

Financial Implications: A fourth printing for a card already Standard-legal and seeing no platy? Nowhere to go but down.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Jace, Memory Adept

So wait, are we getting a new Jace in Magic 2015?

Bottom line: I think so. Jace TMS is not going to happen. Jace B is too small and wimpy. Jace AOT was just reprinted. And Jace MA has been played out. So I think it's gonna happen. I think we get a new Jace in M15.

Probability: 8/10

Financial Implications: Well, until we know what it does, it's hard to say. But if Nissa and Ajani are any indication, this guy's gonna pack some serious power. Maybe not Mind Sculpting power, but it's tough to imagine he'll suck. If he's even halfway decent, he'll command a steep price.

If you like this kind of analysis, you'll probably like QS Insider. We publish about a dozen articles each week that are high-quality and full of information, data, research and analysis. My co-founder Doug just did a great summary of what was published on Insider in the past week, which you can read here. If you like what you see, consider signing up. At about a dime an article, we think you'll find it worth your while.

Learn more about Insider here.

M15 Spoilers 06/26/14 – More Questions Than Answers

Posted on June 26, 2014 by Jason Alt

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Crucible of Fire

Are dragons returning to Tarkir? My limited knowledge of the lore tells me that dragons were hunted to extinction on Tarkir and Sarkhan Vol traveled to other planes in search of more dargons to play with. Does this signal a return of Dargons to Tarkir? Is this to make Stormbreath Dragon marginally better in the worst case of "win-more fever" I've seen since they printed a 6 drop red enchantment that only lets you steal dudes if all of yours are bigger than all of theirs? It's hard to say. Crucible of Fire was enjoying a nice upward trend from bulk toward $5 when this came along and pulled its pants down. Thanks, Obama.

Avacyn, Guardian Angel

This makes me even more upset that this cycle was printed at rare and those poop "souls" are at mythic. What a punt. This card had serious potential for financial growth but it's capped by its rarity, which really blows. You can't follow the price trajectory for any saucy angel printed in the post-mythic era because they don't print Legendary angels as non-Mythic unless they suck. This doesn't suck, but it sucks for the finance community. Having chase cards at non-mythic is baffling.

Phyrexian Revoker

Another spec pooped on. This is a puzzling inclusion in a core set. Is the role of Planeswalkers apt to increase that much in the coming months? This is a whiff in sealed deck, it hurts the price which was flirting with $3 finally and it will likely not see play outside of sideboards. Puzzling indeed.

Perilous Vault

What will be the role of this guy? In EDH, it is obviously nuttier than a bald Snickers.

What is the role outside of 100 card formats? I've seen discussion where this was touted as a possible inclusion in tron, but tron already has Oblivion Stone. But isn't exiling better than destroying? I don't know, let's ask the guy with maindeck Wurmcoil Engine if he wants his artifact to blow things up or exile them. Nothing like a nice, fat nonbo in your tron deck. Does control want this? Potentially. If all you are left with is land, a grip full of cards and an Ajani emblem, you may be inclined to Shahrazad while your opponent is out of gas. Does this get the nod over Coercive Portal in the formats where both cards are legal? Hard to say. Foils of this may be non-sane at first if C.P. is any indication.

Jace the Redacted

Is the guildpact come to life in yet another Jace printing? Is this new art for Jace Beleren? All that's been spoiled is this cryptic frame and new art, leaving us with more questions than answers. I don't know what to tell you besides "wait and see" but when they fill in some more of the blanks, I'll be on the case and you'll hear about it here first.

Insider: GP Chicago & M15

Posted on June 26, 2014January 17, 2022 by Mike Lanigan

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For many writers and players, GP Chicago will be remembered for the plethora of ways in which it was poorly run. Rather than focus on there only being one small bathroom for thousands of men to use or the absurd fifty dollar entry fee, instead I will remember this Grand Prix for what was done right.

For me, this event will be remembered as the epic artist event. Never before have I been to an event where there were seven artists in attendance. Visiting the artist booths is one of my favorite parts of big events like this. I love getting cards signed or altered for my cube and the presence of seven artists was a huge boon for me.

Financial News

There was a lot going on at this Grand Prix besides the main event. Trading was better than it has been in a while and many players seemed eager to rummage through my binder looking for all sorts of cards.

A couple cards I noted were Courser of Kruphix being bought by some dealers as high as twelve dollars and the bump on Eidolon of the Great Revel up to five bucks. Abrupt Decay is still rising as well and the demand was noted as player after player asked me if I had any available.

[cardimage cardname='Courser of Kruphix'][cardimage cardname='Eidolon of the Great Revel']

Conspiracy reprints have probably bottomed out so now seems like a great time to be picking up cards like Misdirection, Exploration and Stifle. Their abundance will subside and their price will start to increase once more most likely by the end of summer.

[cardimage cardname='Misdirection'][cardimage cardname='Stifle']

Even before the spoilers this week, there was a lot of chatter on the floor about the upcoming M15 set. Many players were discussing possible cards and theories they have. As more and more cards are spoiled, I think the hype is justified. While the Souls may or may not be powerful enough for Standard, the planeswalkers certainly are. In addition, there are a number of solid common and uncommon role players that are new and interesting.

For a core set, it definitely has hype backing it. Wizards is doing a good job making nearly every core set interesting and desirable. More on M15 later in the article so keep reading.

Competitive Recap

Even though I kept myself busy with different things, my main focus on this trip was playing Standard in the Grand Prix. If you’ve been reading my articles the last few weeks, you know that I have been planning to play Mono-Blue Devotion. With a red deck winning the Star City Invitational, I found no reason to change my deck choice.

In fact, I discovered while I was in Chicago that many other players including members of the Channelfireball Team agreed with my thinking and played the deck as well. Mono-Blue is a great choice because it presents a powerful and proactive route to victory. It has the tool to defeat any deck in Standard which makes it particularly appealing to me. Here’s how it turned out for me.

Round 1 – bye
Round 2 – Black White Devotion 2-0
Round 3 – Black Green Devotion 2-0
Round 4 – Uwr Control 2-0
Round 5 – Black Green Devotion 0-2
Round 6 – Jund Monsters 1-2
Round 7 – Mono Blue Devotion Mirror 2-1
Round 8 – GW Hex Proof 2-1
Round 9 – Black Green Devotion 0-2

As you can see, I played a variety of decks but mostly against Black Devotion. At the beginning of the tournament, I was on fire and I definitely felt unstoppable. Not losing a game for three matches in a row can do that sometimes.

Then round five came around and for some reason I was not allowed to play Magic. The first game I was stuck on two lands and although I made it a game, my opponent did not stumble at any point for me to come back. Game two I found all the lands that I didn’t have in game one and did not have nearly enough pressure to defeat anyone. I was feeling disgruntled at being mana screwed and then flooding out but it happens so I put it past me and moved onto the next round.

As round five started up, I figured out my opponent was playing Jund Monsters. He did a good job misdirecting me at the beginning of the game and I wasn’t sure if he was playing Monsters or Black Devotion. Once I realized what the match was, I was confident I could win. I think the Monsters matchup is almost always in the favor of Blue Devotion, at least when I am piloting it. After beating my opponent in the first game and feeling like I outplayed him, I was still confident I could take the match.

My mulligan in game two didn’t leave me with much in the way of pressure and my opponent was able to seal the deal with a couple monsters in a row. There was one point in the game where I gave him a couple juicy targets for Polukranos, World Eater to gobble up, but he didn’t bite and instead let his Domri Rade die to my small flyers. If he had protected his planeswalker, my Master of Waves could have allowed me to start pressuring him again.

Finally in game three, I came stampeding out of the gates, but in the midgame he was able to stabilize and finish me off while he sat at a minuscule two life. Drawing six lands in a row allowed my opponent to catch up from what I thought was an unloseable board position. Flooding should not be nearly as bad for me with this version of Mono-Blue because I have a handful of ways to take advantage of seven mana. Unfortunately I didn’t draw any of them in any time I flooded out at the Grand Prix.

Up next was the Mono-Blue mirror match, of which the first two games were quite interesting. Game one ended with my opponent’s maindeck Domestication taking control of my Master of Waves which was my only hope in my mediocre hand. Game two my early onslaught of fliers backed by a timely Hall of Triumph on turn four tied up the match. The final game was anticlimactic as the mana screw finally found my opponent instead of me.

The eighth round featured many interesting plays against an interesting deck. The first game was not much of one as my opponent played many hexproof creatures but no enchantments on them and I played many creatures followed up by Master of Waves.

The second game was an epic struggle for both of us. I’m sure my Selesnya opponent was not expecting me to stabilize after his fast start but Thassa, God of the Sea as an indestructible blocker does great work against an opposing aggressive deck. Unfortunately for me, the card on the top of my opponent’s deck was Selesnya Charm and in addition to the pump, it grants trample so we were onto game three.

Interesting sideboard cards sometimes win games for you and this is a great example. The combination of Triton Tactics and Negate were enough for me to win the combat trick war and then the match.

After rattling off two more wins in a row, I found myself still in a position to qualify for Day Two. Throughout any event, I do my best to take it one game at a time and play my best no matter the circumstances. Play to your outs no matter how small the chances are that you will hit them. Just thinking about what your outs are will help you become a better player.

While I know those statements to be true, sometimes there really is nothing you can do to win. Let’s set aside the fact that I was playing against the best deck in the format. Even if I was playing against another deck, it is unlikely that my twenty lands in two games would be enough to overcome the least competitive deck in the room. Apparently sometimes when you start with four lands in your opener, the next four cards you draw are all Islands. Flooding out two games in a row after turn one Thoughtseize in both games is not how players lock up Day Two. Sadly it was not to be, but Mono-Blue is still a great deck and I played well over the course of the long day, so I have no regrets.

M15 Previews

This week we have seen not one but two new planeswalkers and they both seem sweet. Let’s take a look.

The first one I was able to take a look at was Ajani the Steadfast. While I was surprised that another Ajani is being printed when Ajani, Mentor of Heroes is so fresh in Standard, the newest iteration of my favorite character in Magic seems powerful indeed.

Every part of this ‘walker seems to point him in the direction of greatness. Starting with his easy casting cost of four with only one colored mana to his four starting loyalty, it seems likely that I will be steadfast in my love of this card. Here is the text.

+1: Up to one target creature you control gets +1/+1 and gains lifelink, first strike, and vigilance until end of turn.

-2: Put a +1/+1 counter on each creature you control, the put a loyalty counter on each other planeswalker you control.

-7: You get en emblem with "If damage would be dealt to you or a planeswalker you control, prevent all but 1 of that damage."

One of my favorite parts of Ajani Goldmane was granting your creatures vigilance. Not only do you get that with his +1, but you also get some Akromaesque abilities as well! Making your army bigger was a great way to take advantage of token makers and Ajani the Steadfast delivers for your creatures as well as your planeswalkers.

Nearly every ultimate is worth working for and this one seems decent also, but alternating between his other two abilities may prove a better route to victory. Overall, the newest Ajani seems like an obvious inclusion in any aggressive white deck.

Next up we finally have a new Nissa! I’ve been waiting for an updated version of this planeswalker for a long time and I’ve heard that same sentiment from many players recently as well. A lot of people figured out she was going to be in the set based on some leaked artwork, but knowing there will be a new version of her and seeing it are two different things.

Yet again we have Nissa requiring you to play lots of forests. Unlike last time though, Nissa, Worldwaker provides some powerful tools for a variety of decks.

The first ability I want to talk about is her second +1. Not only is it a great tool for a ramp deck, but it makes her almost free the first turn you cast her! I thought Garruk Wildspeaker was a great ramp tool because he could untap two lands, but untapping four is crazy talk.

If this card weren’t confirmed, I would have thought it was a fake because of how unbelievably powerful it is. This ability alone could be the centerpiece of a tier one Standard deck in the coming weeks. If you untap with her in play, you are going from five mana to ten or eleven! Talk about ramp. Rise of the Eldrazi Standard dreamed about cards like her existing. Now that we have her, we will have to find things worth ramping into.

If you want to be aggressive with Nissa, that’s okay too because she can make an elemental army for you. Unlike her counterpart Koth of the Hammer, her lands stick around as creatures. This is normally a great thing unless you are playing against a Supreme Verdict deck.

Although she doesn’t give your lands haste like Koth did, as long as the land has been in play, it can attack the turn it becomes a creature so they act like they have haste. If you keep her around long enough, you can make a giant 4/4 elemental army. Don’t forget that all of the land creatures all have trample too!

Nissa and Ajani are two of the most exciting cards in M15. I can’t wait to start brewing with both of them. Next week, we’ll take a look at more of what M15 has to offer us.

Until Next Time,

Unleash the Force!

Mike Lanigan
MtgJedi on Twitter
Jedicouncilman23@gmail.com

Insider: Where Have All the Buyouts Gone?

Posted on June 26, 2014January 17, 2022 by Corbin Hosler

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Let’s remember back to six months ago. It’s really not that long of a time, but there was so much different.

Besides all the obvious things, I want to talk about the buyouts. Back then, a new Modern card was being bought out every week, and some of them were truly absurd. Norin the Wary? Runed Halo? Freaking Summoner's Egg?

It’s crazy in retrospect, especially given the lull that Modern prices are in right now, and where they seemed destined to be for the rest of the summer at least. This begs a few questions: with the benefit of hindsight, what led to the buyouts, and what does it mean for the future?

The Buyouts Begin

I know I’ve talked about this in brief before, but I really don’t think you can overstate the rise of Reddit. In particular, the MTGFinance subreddit. It began as something Jason and I helped foster because it was another way to reach people, but it soon took on a life of its own, and the reasonable voices there were quickly drowned out by some of the larger, uninformed masses.

I apologize now if you don’t care about this (and I don’t blame you), but it is crucial to understanding the current state of Modern.

The rise of the subreddit coincided with a time of growth for Modern as a format. The banlist settled down, the format became more welcoming to new players (read: less combo), and some big events propelled it into the spotlight. Then you had a group of newbie financiers who were introduced to the concept of “easy speculating.” Hey, you buy into a card at $2 and it rises to $5, you’re rich!

Of course, I assume most of you reading this are more savvy than that. People learned the hard way that buying into spikes didn’t always work out so neatly. Sometimes a card would rise a few dollars but you wouldn’t even be able to sell at a profit. It was a self-correcting behavior, sure, but one with major implications in the short term.

And those effects reached out beyond just the 4-5,000 subscribers of the group. With so many people suddenly buying into the next growth format and a few high-profile events, it seemed like you couldn’t go wrong. And because of that, the larger finance community (including many of us) hopped onto the train. That’s how we got $100 fetchlands and random cards shooting up every other week.

The End of the Buyouts

As some of us were predicting from the beginning, people slowly began to learn their lesson. If you get burned on a spec or two after finally learning the hard way about holding costs, buylists and shipping fees., you tend to spend your money a little less freely.

That’s what happened, and the market run ended as we always said it would. Crazy buyouts stopped and deflation took its place, leading us to the current malaise we’re in--though it’s worth noting that prices on two benchmarks of the format (Misty Rainforest and Scalding Tarn) have begun to stabilize, even if other staples haven’t. If this continues, we’ll see prices level off before the next catalyst for growth comes along.

Putting It Together

So are buyouts over with?

I’m not prepared to say that. After all, buyouts have been a part of the modern Magic finance for a while, and I think it’s safe to say they’ll be back at some point. But I do think there’s something we can learn from the growth and stagnation of Modern over the past year.

The market is not rational.

I guess it’s not exactly a surprise, but with TCGPlayer expanding and things like Pucatrade taking off, there was a thought that the market was no longer dominated by stores and instead moving toward an extremely efficient model.

And it still is. But that doesn’t mean things operate strictly due to the fundamentals. After all, if they did we would be seeing Modern prices peak right now in line with PTQ season. Instead, we’re seeing the opposite.

So what exactly does this mean for the future? I think the biggest takeaway is that public opinion seems to guide the actions of players (and their wallets) more than the traditional factors.

It’s not PTQ season driving prices; it’s the perception that Modern is the next big things and prices are rising. It’s not a lack of interest in the format holding back prices now; it’s the belief that fetchland reprints are coming and there’s no reason to buy in until that happens.

It can be hard to spot when those things you hear parroted across the internet cross the line from being a vocal minority to being representative of the larger community. It’s something that really requires you to be hitting the floor at events or FNM's to talk to the players out there. It’s also a vitally important tool for making future predictions, and as such is invaluable for your future in Magic finance.

Thanks for reading,

Corbin Hosler

@Chosler88 on Twitter

Elesh Norn; A Retrospective

Posted on June 26, 2014 by Corbin Hosler

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Some of you may be familiar with my Market Watch series on www.empeopled.com, where I look at the playability and financial breakdown of a single card every few weeks. Well, one of the most important parts of making predictions is reviewing them later, and that's what I went for this week.

At the time I wrote the article, we didn't have the Judge Promo version, and this one was ticking up. I predicted it to hit a certain point, and structured a thesis based around its playability in Modern and absurd power in Commander.

So how did I do on that call?

"I made the grandest Cenobite of them all the subject of a Market Watch on Feb. 10, 2014, nearly five months ago. At the time, Elesh Norn was sitting at $22 on TCGPlayer after a solid rise in price. I wrote about her because I felt like the momentum wasn't quite done and because as a Mythic from a rarely-opened set, any number she reached was likely to hold until a reprint came. That led me to predict a $30-35 price point."

Today? She's nearly $30. While I wasn't exactly wrong, she didn't quite reach the level I thought she would. I used this retrospective look as an opportunity to look at the reasons for that.

You can read the full article here.

This Week On Insider: June 16 – 22

Posted on June 25, 2014April 13, 2015 by Douglas Linn

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Jason Alt - Poise

The self-proclaimed Jon Snow of MTGO Finance was one of a very small handful of people not talking about Vintage Masters this week. Instead, he delves into the myriad of tournaments that happened on paper, which is a blessing for those of us that don't do much (or any) MTGO.

So what happened on paper? Well, one thing Jason said stands out above the rest.

I feel like we have a real opportunity here. I think if Ross had jammed these main, the price would have risen very precipitously. Almost mercifully the card was relegated to the board where it would get a bit less notice. This has allowed it to fly under the radar a bit longer and allowed those of us who are bullish on the card to grab copies without triggering a panic.

I can buy slowly and not cause TCG Player prices to spike in response. Star City has raised its price to $5 and TCG Player is really lagging behind. With such a big spread and high availability of the card, no one is tipped off.

The card in question? Eidolon of the Great Revel. I've gone ahead and pulled a graph from MTGStocks.com and highlighted the (tgcplayer mid) price on the day Jason's article went live. It's almost doubled since then.

See this? This is why we listen to Jason when he speaks.

What does it all mean? To me, I feel like Eidolon is poised to go up. Its increasing popularity, the weakness of the expansion set it’s in, its applicability outside of Standard and remaining year plus of legality all combine to generate a lot of wind beneath its wings.

Wind beneath its wings? That’s corny. The helium in its zeppelin? Too dangerous, especially around a red card. Fire under its ass? Look, I’m getting sidetracked; the point is that I think we could see some upward movement.

Prescient. As always.

In addition, Jason makes a call I really like in this article, targeting a not-quite-bulk rare from JOU that might have some serious upside if M15 is indeed full of Convoke as we believe it to be.

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Alexander Carl - Vintage Masters Strikes Back

By far, the most frequent question we've been asked lately is "when should I buy Power on Magic Online?" Alexander goes over what prices have done in the past week (including how he made several hundred tickets). If you're looking to buy or sell the ultra-rare Power, this is a must-read. I especially liked how he touched on the fact that you, as a buyer or seller, need to set a price you're willing to pay and be unemotional about it.

How many playsets of power are there in existence? Alexander talks about that number too, based on the amount of packs being opened at current rates. Let's just say that there are quite a few more Beta Black Lotuses than there are digital Black Lotuses right now.

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Adam Yurchick - Advanced Sideboarding in Sealed Deck

You've done this, right? You're in a Sealed event, you build a decent deck and then register it. After a narrow victory in Round One, your friend looks over your pool and shows you how you could have built the deck so much better. Feeling both frustration and happiness, you're committed to "fixing" that deck over the course of the event with your sideboard. This goes beyond bringing in the bullet card to kill a problem artifact, this is advanced work. Adam highlights several techniques for better sideboarding, including the whole deck swap:

The deck swap strategy allows its pilot to drastically change plans against the opponent, comparable to picking a new constructed deck within games of a Standard match in order to better position against the opponent. It’s not always possible, but when it is, it can be highly effective. This deck-swap strategy also has the effect of surprising the opponent and has the potential to interfere with their own sideboard strategy.

[T]he sideboard may be left with enough playable cards to build a whole new, separate deck.

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Corbin Hosler - The Ground Shook, And No One Cared

What happens when the biggest tournament organizer announces that they'll be supporting Modern on their famously successful event circuit? Not much, according to Corbin. When SCG announced their Modern events, we thought that this would spike interest in Modern cards. Corbin goes over the numbers to show you what didn't go up and when you should be getting your Modern cards to sell into the hype.

I’m not saying Modern is dead or that the announcement from SCG means nothing. I think it will slow down the decline of cards during the next few months, but I don’t think we’re going to be seeing an immediate across-the-board correction upwards.

Like the earthquakes, no one is going to care about the announcement until it arrives on their front door. A year into SCG’s Modern season, I’ll buy that a fair number of players are playing who wouldn’t otherwise due to the series. That certainly will help to buoy prices moving forward.

But the announcement alone? That will do approximately nothing to change the current course we’re on. The first SCG Modern event isn’t until a month from now, and by that time we’ll be nearing the last part of the Modern PTQ season.

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Dylan Beckham - Event Horizon Update

Dylan covers his Top Five cards to watch on Magic Online, referencing them with their paper versions alongside. I'm not going to spoil the whole list for you here, but one of the items is a Tenth Edition card that's ripe for a huge plummet in value if it sees a reprinting. Dylan's got a great focus on Modern in this article, so if you've got a lot of that format in your area (or you follow it online) then this isn't to be missed.

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Mike Lanigan - Don't Forget To Have Fun

Mike's article touches on something serious players and speculators have to remember - try new things and have fun with Magic or it quickly turns into a chore. One of the most fun experiences for Mike lately was Vintage Masters draft, which is still far from a solved format. It's fun to draft but as Mike says, it's a very expensive draft. He's outlined several of his winning draft decks to show you what strategies to look out for. I particularly liked that Mike chose to "build around" cards he opened that seemed fun early on in his drafts. I'm glad to see he took those decks to victory.

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David Schumann - Conspiracy Theories

Conspiracy will still be drafted until M15 comes out, so what is that going to do to the prices of the chase cards in the set? David digs deep and highlights nine cards he thinks you should stock up on. For example:

Realm SeekersThis is my pick for casual favorite from the set. It’s green (EDH’s strongest color), has a decent mana cost for EDH, can be massive against the players who like to draw tons of cards, and most importantly allows us to search forany land. There are so many powerful utility (Yavimaya HollowYavimaya Hollow) or big mana Gaea's Cradle lands that the ability to tutor them up for three green is huge.

David points out that this grabs any land, meaning that it has Primeval Titan's ability to get powerhouses. Commander cards tend to slowly pick up in value until you're asking "when did Black Market turn into a $10 card?" There's also a lively discussion in the comments on how to identify the right time to buy Conspiracy staples and whether we've reached the bottom of the market yet.

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Ryan Overturf - Legacy Izzet Audible in Columbus

Ryan brought an entertaining tournament report to us with his Legacy Izzet Delver deck this week. He did a thorough analysis of why he was setting Tarmogoyfs aside for the event - if you don't have the green machine, his list will still get you there. Ryan piloted it to a respectable 7-3 finish and his report is full of great in-game play tips to make you better.

If you're like me, you go through phases of playing Legacy. I picked up some decks again last week in the LGS and played in a small event and wondered why I hadn't played it in so long. Ryan's article gets me thinking about that again.

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Danny Brown - Why Speculate When It's Already A Staple (PT 1)

Danny comes at us with a blistering answer to the question "why would you buy a hot card when it's already hot?" His historical analysis of standard-era staples shows that these old horses still have a lot of miles left in them to ride. It seems that what was good in eras of Standard Past can still do wonders in Modern if it's good enough.

Danny also hits on the cautionary tale of Voice of Resurgence; how cautious should we be about a card that was once $40 and still flirts at $25? Since it's played in two Modern Pod decks, can it still command that price - or even more?

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Sylvain Lehoux - 9 Months of Portfolio Management: Modern

Sylvain shows off some serious swings in his Modern portfolio, launching off with his reasoning on why he did not invest deeply in the format to begin with. He's pulled in some charts of the swingiest Modern cards, and this one caught my eye:

These trends make a speculator feel greedy for sure! A well-timed speculator could have bought and sold that card six times for a profit! I've managed to pull that off a few times (Grove of the Burnwillows was very kind to me) but seeing the swings in action for Magic Online is very motivating.

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Sigmund Ausfresser - Market Reactions to the SCG Modern Open

As Corbin took the immediate look back over the shoulder at how the market reacted to SCG's Modern events, Sig took a historical dive into Legacy. Specifically, he demonstrated how Legacy's prices have steadily risen over time to reflect continued demand from the Legacy circuit. Lest you think that observation obvious, Sig brilliantly lays out that what's good for Modern is not good for Legacy:

Let’s fast-forward five years and assume Star City Games is still supporting Legacy and Modern on Sundays. You probably still have the same 300 players grinding out the Legacy Opens as before, playing with $400Underground Seas and $150 Force of Will. But any newer player who did not previously own a Legacy deck can now enjoy large tournaments on both Saturdays and Sundays simply by building a Modern deck.

In fact, I fully expect most new players to make a smooth transition from Standard to Modern. Legacy, on the other hand, is inaccessible to most new players. With the Modern option, they really can disregard the format altogether if they desired.

Sig has also been on a buying binge, stocking up on Power here and there. He's got excellent observations about why this is the time to be buying your set if you're in the market. Even market powerhouses like SCG cannot keep them in stock, even at lower card conditions.

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Paul Nemeth - Zwischenzug's Vintage Masters Draft

What do you do when you draft the UG Madness deck, but you lack Wild Mongrels and Basking Rootwallas? You do as Paul did and still slam a 3-0 victory with your draft pool. I loved watching this because Paul shows how to use the depth of role-players in each color to make UG still work. While he isn't making free Rootwallas with his Krovikan Sorcerers, he's still making the most of an archetype full of under-costed beaters and good stack manipulation.

Paul also drafts with a friend, so we get extra commentary on what to do in each pick. You'll hear reasoning on whether you can play Circular Logic without a Madness enabler and whether Ophidian is good in the list or not.

On top of that, it's always fun to watch someone crush other people in draft. With videos, you can watch the slaughter over and over. I'm so happy QS has Paul on board because he is nearly technically perfect in his playing and I always learn a ton.

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My Pick of the Week: Conspiracy Theories, by David Schumann

David's article is a great mix of the practical (a list of cards to stock up on right now) as well as the explanation about why you should get them. The age-old speculation question is "when should I buy in?" and I think he did a great job showing why we're nearing Conspiracy's buy-in point. The comment thread afterward also highlighted why you should always read to the bottom of a QS article - there's usually another article's worth of discussion going on!

If you like this kind of analysis, you’ll probably like QS Insider. We publish about a dozen articles each week that are high-quality and full of information, data, research and analysis. If you like what you see, consider signing up. At about a dime an article, we think you’ll find it worth your while. Learn more about Insider here.

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So wait, are we getting a new Jace in Magic 2015?

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The Buyouts Begin

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My Pick of the Week: Conspiracy Theories, by David Schumann

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