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Magic: The Puzzling

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Greetings, Super Sleuths!

 

In the great tradition of giving us some information early but making us work for it, Journey Into Nyx release weekend has a puzzle for us to figure out.

Earlier, Dack Fayden was spoiled in all of his glory using a very complicated cipher, but the internet, working as a team, cracked the code very quickly.

This video details some of the process.

This Journey Into Nyx puzzle is not quite as complicated and you should be able to figure it out fairly quickly. It's still a fun mental exercise and there weren't any tournament results from the weekend so let's just humor me and do this, OK?

Here are the instructions printed on the poster along with the puzzle. Read the text carefully because it contains some clues.

Below is the poster with the puzzle.

HhPRm3P

 

So what's the answer? Don't post it in the comments section, but feel free to let everyone know you're smart by saying "solved it" or something to that effect.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Free, Journey Into Nyx3 Comments on Magic: The Puzzling

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Insider Video: Zwischenzug Plays Obliterator Rock

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The Deck, and How To Play It

Untitled Deck

Creatures

4 Dark Confidant
4 Tarmogoyf
4 Scavenging Ooze
3 Courser of Kruphix
4 Phyrexian Obliterator

Other

3 Inquisition of Kozilek
3 Thoughtseize
1 Dismember
4 Abrupt Decay
1 Maelstrom Pulse
2 Slaughter Pact
3 Liliana of the Veil

Lands

2 Marsh Flats
3 Overgrown Tomb
4 Twilight Mire
4 Verdant Catacombs
1 Woodland Cemetery
4 Swamp
1 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth
1 Forest
4 Treetop Village

Sideboard

1 Thoughtseize
2 Grafdigger's Cage
3 Drown in Sorrow
1 Phyrexian Arena
4 Fulminator Mage
2 Creeping Corrosion
1 Obstinate Baloth
1 Batterskull


Match 1

There was an error retrieving a chart for Phyrexian Obliterator

Match 2

There was an error retrieving a chart for Scavenging Ooze

Match 3

There was an error retrieving a chart for Maelstrom Pulse

Match 4

There was an error retrieving a chart for Fulminator Mage

Insider: Speculating on…Homelands?!

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Writer’s Note: This article contains some exaggeration. While I personally find enjoyment out of the suggestions presented below, it may not be a fit for everybody. Please keep this in mind as you read through my arguments. For those who sense resonation with this article, I’d be eager to hear your comments about why, below. To everyone else – thanks for keeping an open mind! – Sig

A recent Tweet from @norbert88 sparked an amusing thought in my mind. Before I jump down the rabbit hole however, let me share the Tweet.

Tweet

Can this actually be a thing in EDH? There are a handful of cards in Journey Into Nyx that have decent abilities, but their abilities only trigger when they become untapped. The most logical way to get a creature to untap is to attack with it the turn before. The problem is these creatures are all fairly weak and fragile, and since they have converted mana costs above one, I don’t see them attacking a whole lot into an opponent’s force.

Another Penny Stock

Last week QS’s David Schumann wrote a terrific article summarizing various “penny stocks” of the MTG finance world worth keeping your eye on. I personally think a new card could be added to the list: Koskun Falls.

Koskun Falls provides a feasible way to ensure your King Macar, the Gold-Cursed untaps every turn. The card is black and could fit well into an EDH deck with the King. It may not work well with something like Daring Thief but I certainly believe this could be a thing in the right build.

I’ll admit this is a stretch, but to be fair there are other believers. Look at the uptick in Koskun Falls’ price since Journey Into Nyx was fully spoiled.

Koskun Falls

The card isn’t worthless to dealers, either. Check out Trader Tools:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Koskun Falls

Speculating on Homelands Cards?! No Way!

Way. This forgotten, oft-detested set has surprised speculators again and again. Long gone are the days when Baron Sengir was playable, yet the iconic legend buylists for $1.75 to mythicmtg. Don’t ask me why. I couldn’t tell you who wants this card.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Baron Sengir

I can, however, tell you who wants your Autumn Willows. Apparently a person bought hundreds of these to create an instant (yet inexplicable) collection. Whatever floats his boat, right?

Speaking of floating, this buyout has kept Autumn Willow’s price far above bulk even now a couple weeks after the initial spike. TCG Low is $2.24 and SCG is actually selling this card at $4.99! Laughable? Not as laughable as their buy price of $2!

There was an error retrieving a chart for Autumn Willow

And let’s not forget about the first ridiculous Homelands spike in the MTG Speculation era:

Didgeridoo

Didgeridoo is the most valuable card in *cough*….the most valu-…oh my gosh. I can’t believe I’m going to write this without being completely sarcastic.

Didgeridoo is the most valuable card in Homelands! There, I said it! The artifact is actually worth over $5 and it can be sold to dealer(s) for over $2 if Near Mint. Some were very circumspect about this card and there is no way I can blame them. But if you thought this was a baseless buyout, I’d ask you to reconsider now that we are nearly a year later and the card still has kept the majority of its value.

This is the new face of Magic, folks. Silly tribal cards that people want to enjoy in casual play can have value. Just like I think Koskun Falls should have value.

But we need to go even further back in Magic’s history in order to find the first true buyout from Homelands. In fact, we need to turn the clocks back all the way to Fall 2010 when Scars of Mirrodin was spoiled. An important keyword was revealed during spoiler season that got the attention of MTG speculators: infect.

Want to know what Homelands card is great at stopping infect strategies?

There was an error retrieving a chart for Leeches

Who remembers this one? I remember walking into my LGS sometime during Scars of Mirrodin block seeing finance-minded individuals rifling through the LGS’s Homelands box looking for this card. While I’ve never actually seen the card cast, it was a thing. In fact it still kind of is. Why else would it be $2 at TCG Mid and retailing for $1.49?

Amazing Flavor for a Small Price

How many sets in Magic’s history can be purchased for less than $50? Probably not many, although I’d wager Fallen Empires and Ice Age would probably be close. What I love about Homelands is not just the price and the random buyouts, but also the flavor of the set.

Let’s face it–Magic Cards just aren’t what they used to be. Nineteen-year-old sets have so much more flavor than newer sets (although Innistrad was a homerun). For those who have nostalgia for old-school Magic, this set will surely take you back.

I have to remind myself that this is a financial column and not a column for reminiscence. No one is going to make thousands of dollars speculating on Homelands sets. But there is money to be made here. Cards like Didgeridoo and Autumn Willow prove that flavor and nostalgia can carry some weight. The fact that Baron Sengir is still worth a couple bucks indicates the same.

There’s one more thing I haven’t mentioned yet, which is further evidence to suggest that picking up a set of Homelands isn’t the absolute worst. Every card I mentioned in this article is on the Reserved List!

That’s right! Autumn Willow, Baron Sengir, Koskun Falls, Leeches and Didgeridoo are all cards that Wizards of the Coast has promised never to print again. In fact there are 35 Homelands cards on the Reserved List in total–a significant fraction of the set as a whole.

Back to Reality

I’ll admit this article is far-fetched. But over the last year or so I’ve seen people joke about speculation on Homelands cards only to see cards actually jump in price. Buylists on some of these cards are surprisingly high, probably due to how difficult it is to actually find them.

Will a Homelands set appreciate in value more rapidly than a Revised Plateau in the coming months? Probably not. I can’t make an argument for speculating on Homelands sets at all. It’s probably a terrible idea. But I keep thinking back to the age and flavor of the set.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Plateau

The same goes for sets like Fallen Empires and Ice Age. They are such flavorful sets, and as they age further and further they are becoming difficult to find locally. Even a set like Weatherlight had some tremendous flavor, and while it’s a bit more expensive I’d argue this one is also worth a look.

I feel $80 is a fair price for a collection of fun cards with some Constructed relevance. Winding Canyons is on the Reserved List and Gemstone Mine is played in Legacy and Modern. Null Rod and Doomsday have also seen play in the past and are financially relevant.

My Final Argument – A Stretching Comparison

Age alone isn’t why cards from these older, flavorful sets are harder to find. Being from such old sets also means their print runs will have been significantly lower than sets of today. Fortunately for sets this old, finite print run information actually exists!

Print Runs
(Picture from http://www.crystalkeep.com/magic/misc/rarity-info.php)

Sure, the numbers seem high for Homelands relative to the first few expansion sets. There are roughtly twenty times as many Homelands U1’s as there are Legends rares. For a moment, let’s assume a linear relationship between rarity and price. Assuming demand is constant, a U1 from Homelands will have 1/20 the price of a rare from Legends.

So if Koskun Falls can become as in-demand as In The Eye of Chaos, then Koskun Falls could retail for $4 since In the Eye of Chaos retails for $80 (and is sold out at SCG, by the way).

Is this a flawless argument? Definitely not. But it does give you a rough idea of the potential involved. Again, I recognize I am highly biased because of my nostalgia for older sets. I’ve purchased many-a-Homelands pack in my day because they were so cheap.

My point is this: Homelands cards aren’t as worthless as they once were. They have potential just like cards from other sets. As EDH and Casual play increases at a rapid pace, rarer cards from older sets like Homelands have upward potential once they are discovered.

Look at Winding Canyons–a solid EDH staple which had very slight price movement for years. The card was “discovered” by the masses just last week and it’s already up 30%. This can and will happen to other cards from this era. I singled out Homelands because of the Tweet I shared at the beginning of this article, but the same logic can be applied to other under-appreciated sets from the same time period. These sets deserve a little love too, despite their awful history.

Sigbits

  • Shocklands are finally on the rise! They haven’t seen significant increases, but they are definitely off their lows. Steam Vents, which was once the cheapest shockland, now retails for $11.99! It will be interesting to see how Standard rotation impacts these Modern staples. I don’t anticipate much drop–in fact I see further increases once Modern PTQ season kicks off this summer!
  • Mimic Vat has been on a tear of late, showing up on mtgstocks.com’s Interests page multiple days in a row now. The card has come quite a ways since it was marked down to $1 during SCG’s March Madness sale. Nonfoils are now $2.99 at retail and foils are sold out at $14.99!
  • SCG has moved aggressively on Commander generals. They have the top buy price on Ghave ($5) and Karador ($4) and their stock in these cards is fair at best. Apparently they believe higher prices will stick and I am inclined to agree.

The Best Reason to Prerelease

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What's up everybody?

I am here to talk to you about a very serious condition that affects three out of every two players in the Magic Community.

Two Headed Giant Withdrawal Syndrome, or 2HGWS is an affliction that has a wide range of symptoms.

  • Not being able to play 2HG
  • Wanting to play 2HG and not being able to
  • Getting really upset every time you see a textless foil Mutavault
  • Duct taping yourself and a friend together and playing a prerelease wearing a 4XL t-shirt

Thankfully for all of you 2HGWS sufferers out there, you are not alone.

There is hope, however.

Your local prerelease events are likely to run 2HG on Sunday. If you don't want to wait 3 months until the next prerelease, schedule an event during the week. Your LGS likely doesn't hate money and if enough people show up, they will run the event. 2 Headed Giant Sealed is fun, it's a great way to get new players interested in limited, especially if you pair new players up with veterans, and decks are generally better built out of a larger card pool. If you take preregistration signups (facebook is your friend here) you can run an event of a decent size. This will only alleviate symptoms of 2HGWS temporarily, but it beats a shotgun blast to the face.

No really, that's the only other cure. You're much better off playing an event.

If you've never played it, try it out next prerelease, at a GP or make it happen at your LGS. Don't let 2HGWS claim another victim.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Prereleasing for Fun and Profit

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No deep thoughts or cool links today, but I did do something a little different with my Journey into Nyx prerelease than I usually do, and I thought it worth sharing.

Typically, I go to the LGS that I'm comfortable at, either the one I work out of or another closeby where I have a lot of friends. This is how most of us spend our Prerelease Saturdays, and it's a ton of fun. That said, after a hiccup in the system cost my LGS its shot at a prerelease (seriously don't know why this happens but I was told WOTC doesn't make exceptions any more if there's an error... which sucks). Anyway, no prerelease for me in the usual spot.

So what did I do? Went to Facebook and found a friend in another town, and told him I may be interested in attending. It was a 90-minute drive to make it to Lawton, Oklahoma and Tom's Card Kingdom (check it out if you're in the area), but it was well worth my time. I got to see old friends, meet a bunch of new ones and enjoy a prerelease outside of my comfort zone.

And it was the best decision I've made recently.

This didn't hurt, either.
This didn't hurt, either.

The "moral" of the story is this: if you're ever in a situation similar to mine, or even if you aren't, trying something new with Magic. Head to that store across town. Play with a new group of people. Try a new color at your next prerelease. Whatever it is to you, take a risk. Prereleases are meant to be fun, and I can't think of a better way to guarantee that's what happens.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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What’s the most (non-infinite) combat damage you can deal on Turn 1?

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Now we know the answer, and it's a doozy.

So much so, in fact, that the number itself is too big to write. Suffice to say, it's three billion (yes, Billion) digits of damage.

So how do we make it happen? Besides the usual suspects (Black Lotus, Channel, Recurring Nightmare), it's all thanks to a little card named Children of Korlis. Basically, you create a loop thanks to Tempt with Vengeance where you can pay life for mana, and then use that mana to loop the Children and gain increasing amounts of life.

The secret to lots of damage is gaining lots of life. Who knew?
The secret to lots of damage is gaining lots of life. Who knew?

Once you've generated an absurd amount of mana, you flash back Tempt with Vengeance thanks to Mystic Retrieval (There's some mana cycling involved to create the right colors), and you go to town.

So there you go. The most damage you can imagine on Turn 1. Here's a handy visual guide in case you have some extra Black Lotus around and get bored.

Taking “God Pack” Literally

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Remember hearing about so-called "God Packs" where the person telling the story SWORE that he knew a guy who knew a dude who opened a booster and every card in the pack was rare?

It appears Wizards has decided to have some fun with us- there are reports coming in of God packs - literally a pack of Journey into Nyx where all 15 cards at Theros-block gods.

I dismissed the reports as a poor pun at first, but I have seen multiple reports and it seems like it's true.

Here is a picture snapped at Games Laboratory in Australia.

Here is a sighting from Ongkeco's Hobby Shop in Manila (that's in the Philippines and their main export is office supplies)

TCG Player posted this pic.

How about you? Anyone strike it rich at their prerelease?

 

Fun fact - all 15 gods in play at the same time will turn each other on and all be creatures. With Xenagos keeping the wine flowing and a pantheon of immortals in peak physical condition turning each other on, you probably should knock first before entering.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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Posted in Free, Journey Into Nyx15 Comments on Taking “God Pack” Literally

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Our Journey Into Nyx Prerelease Cheatsheets are here!

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Our much-beloved cheat-sheets are here! They're both in alphabetical and numerically-ranked lists - who loves ya?

I hope you have a great time this weekend at the pre-release! This set looks a lot more lucrative for traders and players than BNG did. I know, I know, that's not saying a lot...

Journey Into Nyx Cheatsheet (alphabetical) 

Journey Into Nyx (numerical)

 

You can download these PDFs on your smartphone and print off some copies for yourself and your friends. The best feeling is handing one of these to someone for their first pre-release so they don't get scummed by those sharks known to swim around pre-releases.

 

You can also check out Journey Into Nyx in Trader Tools 3 for dynamic, up-to-date prices!

Douglas Linn

Doug Linn has been playing Magic since 1996 and has had a keen interest in Legacy and Modern. By keeping up closely with emerging trends in the field, Doug is able to predict what cards to buy and when to sell them for a substantial profit. Since the Eternal market follows a routine boom-bust cycle, the time to buy and sell short-term speculative investments is often a narrow window. Because Eternal cards often spike in value once people know why they are good, it is essential for a trader to be connected to the format to get great buys before anyone else. Outside of Magic, Doug is an attorney in the state of Ohio.  Doug is a founding member of Quiet Speculation, and brings with him a tremendous amount of business savvy.

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Insider: Modern’s Undervalued Sideboard Cards

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Modern has a huge cardpool that goes back over ten years, containing a wealth of hidden treasures waiting to be discovered. Picking just fifteen cards from a pool of thousands requires deep knowledge of the cardpool and format. Most people just copy sideboards they see on the internet, and when people do deviate they tend to stick with what they are familiar with.

Modern is high-powered and very diverse, especially when compared to Standard, so it must be approached with this in mind. The best sideboard cards tend to be powerful but flexible, narrowly hateful but broadly applicable. Since Modern is full of linear strategies that can be exploited by a carefully chosen sideboard, linear decks often sideboard with the goal of answering opposing hate cards directly.

For my first day with QS, I wrote a two-part guide on the most important sideboard cards for the upcoming Grand Prix Richmond. Before reading on today, I highly recommend checking out those short pieces here and there.

Moving beyond the most popular, there is a whole trove of effective sideboard cards waiting to be exploited in Modern. Today I’ll share my list of some of the most undervalued sideboard cards in Modern.

Solid Hate

Although diverse, the format has started to settle down with a clear top-tier emerging. This top-tier is Affinity, Birthing Pod, and Splinter Twin, which have been the most popular and successful decks in live and online Modern events. Fighting against these three decks is critical, and I value cards that hate on all three. The first two sideboard cards today do just that:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Damping Matrix

This is tech back from when Mirrodin was in Standard, and it’s still awesome today. While it does not shut down mana creatures, it does shut down Birthing Pod, along with any sort of combo shenanigans from either Viscera Seer or Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker. Damping Matrix also stops the Splinter Twin combo. It is also excellent against Affinity, where it stops their key cards, Arcbound Ravager and Cranial Plating.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Linvala, Keeper of Silence

Another excellent permanent against the top-tier of the format is Linvala, Keeper of Silence. It lacks the artifact hate of Damping Matrix, but it completely hoses mana creatures, including Steel Overseer, stops Splinter Twin combo and presents a sizable flying body. It's also strong against Affinity because it shuts down their best creatures and blocks very well. The card has often been seen as a tool-box target, but it’s a great sideboard card for any white-heavy deck looking for an extra edge against the top-tier.

Specialty Hate

The diversity of Modern means every deck has a problem somewhere. Some decks might have trouble beating a certain card, while others might have trouble beating certain decks. In either case, reaching for the sideboard is going to be important. The next three cards are examples of extreme measures decks can take to tackle a tough problem:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gut Shot

Beyond Dredge, I can’t think of a deck in history that is more subject to hate cards than Affinity. The deck takes constant abuse, but it always finds success. One of the most extreme hate cards against Affinity is Kataki, War's Rage, and Gut Shot is an instant solution that generates a lot of tempo.

Bringing in a narrow card just to answer a potential sideboard card is typically bad strategy, but Kataki, War's Rage is most commonly seen out of Birthing Pod, and that means Gut Shot will nearly always prove useful because it’s also excellent for removing their turn-one mana creature.

Much like Darkblast, Gut Shot also has a lot of broad applicability in the format. As a free spell, it’s also always going to be a tempo-positive play. Gut Shot has been growing in popularity Affinity sideboards online, and it’s been seen other sideboards like Infect and Travis Woo’s Ninja-Bear-Delver deck.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Aura Barbs

Entrepreneurial Burn players have been turning to Aura Barbs, which hates on the enchantments directly, and makes it an extremely potent sideboard card for a specific problem.

Burn is completely focused on bringing the opponent to zero life, which makes it consistent. But it’s also very vulnerable to lifegain.

Lifegain itself can be hated out with various narrow cards, but it’s more difficult when the lifegain comes with a clock attached, which exactly the problem GW Auras poses with cards like Daybreak Coronet, Unflinching Courage and even Spirit Link. They will also bring in cards like Leyline of Sanctity, which doesn't gain life but hates on burn spells all the same.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Mark of Asylum

In a nutshell, the text of this card reads “creatures you control have protection from burn spells.” Burn is the most commonly played form of creature removal in the Modern format, and, without it, many decks are simply defenseless against creatures. In a world where the best targeted removal spell is Lightning Bolt and the best sweeper is Anger of the Gods, it’s clear why a card like Mark of Asylum has a lot of utility.

Mark of Asylum is being played online in the sideboard of GW Hatebears, which was better known as the “GW Kibler” deck for a while last year, as a way to protect its many creatures from burn. It simply shuts down many cards in the format, a trait it shares with other oppressive white sideboard enchantments like Stony Silence and Rest in Peace. The card has applications in the sideboard of any white deck heavy on the creatures, and it’s a card I expect to see a lot more of in the future.

Counter Hate

There are some excellent counterspells available in Modern, and the banning of Deathrite Shaman has made them more popular than ever. Fortunately, Modern also contains some highly-effective solutions for counterspells:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Gigadrowse

Back in the original Ravnica, Gigadrowse was the best blue solution to counterspells, and it even won the World Championship in Makihito Mihara’s UR Dragonstorm combo deck. It can be cast at end-of-opponent’s turn to tap them out before initiating a combo on the next turn. Unlike something like Mana Short, Gigadrowse gets around counterspells because Replicate produces multiple copies, making it essentially uncounterable. It’s also quite excellent against other combo decks, and it can be used in their upkeep to effectively Time Walk them.

Gigadrowse has applications for any blue combo deck, including Splinter Twin and Scapeshift, and just last weekend it was found in the sideboard of a Magic Online Premier event-winning Storm deck. I expect the card to start picking up popularity as blue grows more common in the Modern metagame.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Defense Grid

For players that want to shut down opposing counterspells but aren’t looking to play any instants of their own, Defense Grid is a very effective solution to counterspells with a pedigree that includes the combo-winter of Urza’s Saga block and the sideboard of the current Legacy bogey man, Sneak and Show.

Defense Grid makes opposing counterspells awkward and typically impossible to cast for the first few turns of the game, and late in the game it removes the tempo advantage counterspells often generate. Defense Grid is excellent out of the sideboard of Green Tron and it’s been picking up a lot of steam in Storm decks online. It has applications for any other combo deck weak to counterspells, including the Ad Nauseam deck and Amulet of Vigor combo, and it’s one of the first sideboard cards I’d reach for when building a new combo deck in the format. With blue on the rise, this card is only getting better with time.

Secret Hate

Finally, my best kept secret sideboard card:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Darkblast

Darkblast has long been one of my favorite sideboard cards, and I remember using it to good effect back in original Ravnica block Standard. For the last few years, I’ve been using the card in Legacy where it punishes Elf combo and Death and Taxes, both full of X/1 creatures. Formats like Legacy and Modern value efficiency, and that often means creatures are small. The current Modern format has all sorts of important small creatures to destroy.

Darkblast is a great way to eliminate staple card advantage creatures like Dark Confidant and Snapcaster Mage, mana cogs Noble Hierarch and Birds of Paradise, and tempo-deck creatures like Delver of Secrets and Spellstutter Sprite.

My favorite use of Darkblast in Modern is as a dedicated hate card against Affinity, where it answers their manlands Blinkmoth Nexus and Inkmoth Nexus, and their cog creatures Vault Skirge, Signal Pest and Memnite.

~

Please note that this is a strategy article, and the cards I've included as being undervalued are from a strategic standpoint and may or may not also be undervalued from a market standpoint.

What Modern sideboard cards do you think are the most undervalued, strategically and financially? Post a comment!

-Adam

Leveling up in Life

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This maybe goes beyond the regular Magic-related content, but it something important to the community, so I thought I would share.

Brian Kibler, the "Dragonmaster," is well-known for both his playing prowess and his made-for-camera personality. It turns out he also cares deeply about fitness, and helping other in our community improve. He wrote a heartfelt blog post about the subject, and also opened up a challenge to his fellow gamers looking to improve the area.

Hall of Famer Brian Kibler.
Hall of Famer Brian Kibler.

An excerpt:

I grew up as a fat kid. I always had an incredible appetite, and developed a lot of bad habits early in life. As I grew older and conscious of my weight, I made some effort to eat healthy, but my teenage years were right in the middle of the low-fat diet revolution. “Low-fat” and “fat-free” snacks were everywhere, and my mother was one of those for whom the marketing was extremely effective. My house was always full of Snackwell brand low-fat cookies and pretzels and the like, and I’d eat them by the bag. When I started high school, I weighed something like 240-250 lbs.

 

You can read the full post here.

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Corbin Hosler

Corbin Hosler is a journalist living in Norman, Oklahoma (also known as the hotbed of Magic). He started playing in Shadowmoor and chased the Pro Tour dream for a few years, culminating in a Star City Games Legacy Open finals appearance in 2011 before deciding to turn to trading and speculation full-time. He writes weekly at QuietSpeculation.com and biweekly for LegitMTG. He also cohosts Brainstorm Brewery, the only financial podcast on the net. He can best be reached @Chosler88 on Twitter.

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Insider: Top 5 Cards You Should Know

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"For every start, there is a middle, beginning, and end."

Wait....."There is a end, a middle and a beginning? Much better!"

I keep forgetting that everyone out there in TV Land does not shares the same or similar experience as I do. I can guarantee that if myself & six other Quiet Speculation writers sat down in front of an audience, it would be much like the quotes I referenced, in some random combination. How I frame a question, listen to the response and then prioritize what is heard is usually very different from "Adam" that might be sitting next to me.

I've talked a little about the way I do things. The thought processes behind other motivators and things that you should be thinking about. There's been a sprinkling of new set action, and of course the Modern build up that I've been ranting about for months now. As I sit here trying to decide on what path to take you down next, I got to thinking about just how very different everyone's situation is. What are the things you must be doing right in order to continual speculate and take advantage of markets as they evolve? Do we have the technology?

I use the End, Middle, Beginning analogy here to describe how I approach this business. Thinking backwards has helped me greatly in attempting to accomplish my goals, but knowing what I want, how I'm going to accomplish it, and what I have to have in order to proceed has been the strength of my process. There is no such thing as practice making perfect. Only perfect practice makes perfect. Thinking this way, and structuring my actions on how to best accomplish each feat, has cleared a lot of the fog and haze that surrounds understanding the deep concepts that are involved in Magic. Not only do you have the whim of people involved, but supply & demand, print runs, cost of purchasing, and a million other factors that make moving through this world a slog. This has helped me figure out where to get the most out of each step.

So right now, what are my long term plans? A brick and mortar store front is in the works for the future. Expansion of my online sales presence and services is the short term immediate future. This means more articles, more insight, more knowledge and greater amount of singles available through my website. The short term is focused on flipping the next collection in order to reinvest back into controllable singles. This process will continue to include continued tournament appearances, collection buying, and expand to  more networking and Craigslist advertising.

I'd like to hear more about what you are focusing on, and see how those things are going to fit into the End, Middle, Beginning paradigm. Work backwards and share your goals in the comment section below. Or take it to Twitter. I'm also available through the corresponding social networks links. Help me make this column better!

Now that we're passed that - let's look at what you should be focusing on this week.

Top 5 Cards you should be keeping an eye on:

There was an error retrieving a chart for Arcbound Ravager

Arcbound Ravager is one of those unique cards that really begs you to look closer. There's a lot of things going on underneath the surface of the card that doesn't necessarily reveal itself to the untrained eye. Half of everyone reading this right now will believe that Arcbound Ravager's price point is too prohibitive to geting involved. That might be true. If you want a card though that can be picked up for a very solid intro price, be readily available, will have a very high percentage chance for finding buyers/traders in a hot market - look no further. Mox Opal's have started to climb to ridiculous heights that weren't thought possible for a card that stabilized in the mid $15 for such a long time. Now, Mox Opals are 400% of that price and the ceiling looks to be in the $80's to $90's. Mox Opals are a single print run card, that could easily be in the next Modern Masters announcement but before that we have a full season where I would practically guarantee BOTH will be in HIGH demand.


Arcbound Ravager has always been one of the key components to the deck's longevity in a hostile environment. As of this writing there's already been a price adjustment of +$7.25 in the last few weeks. The non-season price of $25 is just $2.50 away, but I believe the ceiling is a solid $45.00-$50.00 on one of Modern's most affordable decks. Most of the pieces of Robots/Affinity I believe are some of of the best targets you can have right now. In some cases they are criminally undervalued for such a high appearance deck. With Jund's virtual exodus from the format, your boogieman is pretty much gone. Many people will be looking for solid performers when finally picking up their decks in the upcoming weeks. This deck has consistently for years been a top performer or just on the outside looking in. The cards are plentiful now, and demand will surely change that soon.

There was an error retrieving a chart for Hurkyl's Recall

With that being said - Revised Hurkyl's Recalls have jumped to a sub $4.00 mark. This card has been a curiosity more and more. Extremely competitive in mana cost (So much so that it sees Vintage play). It's floated around a solid $1.00-$1.50 range for a very long time. Now that Snapcaster Mage decks are back to being the toast of Modern, and here to stay for Legacy - we're finally seeing the movement this card could garner. Antiquites editions have recently spiked over 200% of it's customary $12.00 price tag. This leaves a lot of room and possible leverage for other editions. Possibly even 10th Edition foils if you feel that froggy.

 

There was an error retrieving a chart for Nightveil Specter

Nightveil Specter is not your typical Top 5 card. May is typically the month that you truly want to be exiting the previous year's block. Slowly but surely transferring out of high yield staples and moving into hoarding Theros Block targets. Anything that's not going to be going into the long term hold needs to be tracked very closely. Keeping an eye on solid performers from the last season is how you can truly judge when to get out. As the prices begin to descend downwards, in earnest, you are too late. That only begins when sellers are just not selling the amount of copies they once came to expect. Once August hits all pricing will already have switched over to post format buying. When that brick wall hits, the best out you'd have is either retailing or trading away at full value.

82275

I'm putting Deicide in this slot because I've been touting what the Gods can do in block for a long time. This card provides a very solid answer to those pesky Gods as I personally just can't imagine the Flagship not being the single highlight of December-March Magic. Once that time period hits, I don't believe Supreme Verdict or other like costed answers will be available. At that time, we will have a format where 6 mana board wipes will be primarily available and that puts the Devotion mechanic front and center to truly shine. There's a chance bestow's new counterparts in Journey Into Nyx really gives the ability the shot in the arm it needs, and that will help to counteract any possible low mana cost sweepers, but I find that possibility waning now with the full set release. Only time will truly tell, so I'm considering this card a very high "sleeper".

82224

What hasn't been said about Mana Confluence? I'm surprised they actually reprinted City of Brass. But let's take a look not only at the fact that now 8x City of Brass is available in every freaking format it's legal in. Let's leave THAT fact alone for a minute.

Hands down, for the short term at minimum this will be the chase card from Journey Into Nyx. Not that we didn't have perfect mana for the time being, this card leads me to believe a number of things:

1) This is the test for older playables to be reprinted as new cards.

2) This is pushes me further into the belief that we will have Standard legal Fetches next season.

The Temples in conjunction with Mana Confluence allows an environment of 2-3 colored decks that can reliably have basic lands in play. Zendikar Standard was such a format where the majority of decks were mono to two colors and were primarily basic lands. I'm still solidily of the the belief that we are going to see the reprint of Onslaught fetchlands next season.

There's much more to be said about this card's impact on Standard, but I'm more curious about what other applications and thoughts there are on why this card should be highlighted. Are predictors like this appearing more commonly through out Magic? Please use the comment section down below or start a conversation on Twitter. I'd love to hear your thoughts

-Till Next Time

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Dylan Beckham

Dylan has been involved in Magic: The Gathering since the heyday of The Dark. Continually invested in the community, he's been a Pro Tour Player, Trader, Judge, Tournament Organizer, Volunteer, and Vendor. Currently involved with the day to day operations of selling online, Dylan has brought his experience to Quiet Speculation to make you a better investor. Hailing from the Atlanta area, and now part of the Dallas scene - he's often at big events sourcing cards or discussing Life, the Universe, and Everything. Have a question? Feel free to comment, message, or email anytime.

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Insider: Virtually Infinite – Constructed DE’s

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Magic Online is expensive—but it doesn’t have to be. This is part three of my series on how to play more Magic Online for less money.

Part one focused on some tools for your toolbox. Part two focused on the folly of drafting, and ways to slow the bleeding. Today we’ll talk to some MTGO grinders to learn how they maximize the value of their time online.

If you draft, the deck is stacked against you in the long run. But it is possible to go infinite online. You just need to get acquainted with 60-card decks.

At GP Philadelphia I had the chance to speak with two elite MTGO players, Bing Luke (@prolepsis) and Brian Braun-Duin (@BraunDuinIt), about how you can reduce the costs of playing Magic Online. They each offered a slightly different path, but there's a lot in common between the two.

Play Daily Events (DEs)

Both agreed that players who want to maximize their value should play Daily Events. These scheduled tournaments are a grinder’s bread and butter. They cost 6 tix to enter, run four rounds, and have excellent payouts. Go 4-0 and you take home 11 boosters and 3 MOCS Qualifying Points (QPs). Even a 3-1 record nets you 7 boosters and a QP.

Let’s compare the EV of these Daily Events with the EV of Draft:

DE EV Calc
These calculations use today’s prices for boosters and assigning a value of 5 tix for each QP (I’d estimate this month’s MOCS promo, Force of Will, to sell around 60-75 tix). Often booster prices are significantly higher, and MOCS points worth significantly less. You can calculate your own values over on Magic EV. In future articles we'll talk about managing your bankroll so that you only sell boosters when they are priced high, which can significantly increase your portfolio.

As we noted last week, to break even in Draft you need roughly a 65% win rate.

What win rate do you need to break even playing Daily Events? A mere 41%.

A 50% win rate will earn you a couple tix for each event you enter, and if you can achieve a 65% win rate in Daily Events you will net over 10 tickets per event. And these calculations are at today’s depressed ticket prices; if you can sell your packs at 3.3-3.5 tix, the numbers are even more favorable.

Wizards is essentially subsidizing you to play Constructed by offering a much better payout scheme—one that, on average, nets you tickets just by playing. What’s happening here is Wizards wants to encourage players to maintain an online card collection. That helps support the price of singles, which in turn fuels drafting, which generates revenues.

It’s worth noting that the Constructed payoff declines pretty steeply when you move into the fire-on-demand events. The 8-man queues are barely a net positive EV, and the 2-man queues are negative EV. You could do worse than play these events, and I often do. But the value really shows when you look at the Daily and Premier Events.

Not surprisingly, Bing and BBD told me they play a lot of Daily Events. Premier Events (PE) are another high-EV tournament, but Bing noted that they have much higher variance; he did not recommend the boom-or-bust experience for those getting started.

You also need to free a massive chunk of time to play, which is not an option for most Magic Online players.

It’s worth noting that MTGO also offers Sealed DEs, but they are fewer and farther between and have lower EV (though they are still much better than draft). If you really want to minimize the cost of playing and build your portfolio, you’ll want to acquire and master a constructed deck.

Choosing a Format

So you’ll need a 60-card deck. Where do you start? This depends on your goals and preferences as a player, as well as your budget. There are several good options for those who are just getting started in Constructed on MTGO.

In the past, MTGO offered DEs in Pauper and Momir, two formats that are only played online. These formats were a great way to get started, since the decks were cheap and they offered a perfect gateway for new players. Unfortunately, these offerings were phased out last year, and now Pauper and Momir are only available as Premier Events (and only a few times each week.)

I’d still recommend Pauper and Momir to new players, as the cost to entry is low and the decks are fun to play. But to capitalize on high-EV Daily Events you’ll need a different weapon.

That leaves four options: Standard, Block Constructed, Modern, and Legacy. Each has pros and cons. Today we’ll examine Standard and Block.

Standard

Standard remains the most popular format both in paper and online. There are several budget decks that make it a viable entry level option.

Pros:

  • Convenience: There are 39 Standard DEs scheduled each week, which basically translates to one event every four hours. That means it’s much easier to find one during your preferred window of playing time.
  • Portability: Bing recommended Standard as the best option for players who play both in paper and online because “the skills are portable”. That is, if you’ve been playing Standard at FNM or on the SCG circuit you can just pick up the deck and run with it, and the hours you put in online will translate directly into skills for paper Magic.

Cons:

  • Cost of Entry: Standard decks will cost you significantly more than Block decks. This can get especially expensive if you like to switch between decks, or if shifts in the metagame invalidate your investment. The top decks cost between 170-340 tix, which is a lot less than their paper counterparts, but does require an upfront investment.
  • Rotation: Managing a Standard collection requires constant vigilance. Cards fluctuate quickly in value, especially as we approach the fall rotation. On MTGO, prices for Return to Ravnica block cards have already started falling, and purchasing a Standard deck now means you are buying a wasting asset—never the best approach if you want to build your portfolio. Unless you are vigilant, any tickets you win will be offset by depreciation or by transaction costs (as you buy and sell your deck to avoid losing value.)

Block Constructed

On Magic Online, Block Constructed is a real format and provides an on-ramp for new players to play a competitive deck.

Pros:

  • Lowest cost to entry: Block Constructed decks tend to be significantly cheaper than Standard decks. The top decks can be had for 70-130 tix. Only one deck, Naya Monsters, comes close to 200 tix.
  • Preview of coming attractions: When I spoke to Brian Braun-Duin he recommended Block as a good way to get into the game. “This year’s Block strategies are next year’s Standard strategies, so you’re ahead of the game,” he said. “I probably played more Innistrad Block Constructed than just about anyone, which meant that I had played more Ravager of the Fells mirrors than just about anyone.” These small advantages can provide a meaningful edge down the line.
  • Potential growth in deck value: Right now Theros and Born of the Gods singles prices are about at their historic lows, and there is nowhere to go but up (see THS and BNG indices). If you buy one of the top decks for 100 tix, it is likely to be worth that much or more in a few months. BBD mentioned that this was certainly the case with his Innistrad block decks, especially the lands. (By the way, BBD recommended acquiring Temples, which should go up once Ravnica lands rotate; I couldn’t agree more. THS and BNG Temples should hit their low point during Journey Into Nyx release events when tickets become scarce.)
  • The Pro Tour: This month is a good time to buy into Theros Block Constructed because Block Constructed is the format for the coming Pro Tour May 16-18. Competitive players will build their gauntlet and this should cause a modest rise in demand. More importantly, cards that see time on camera during the Pro Tour could see online spikes, and coverage should stimulate short-term interest in the block format in general. That said, Block prices can be hard to predict, so make sure to read Sylvain’s article on the topic.

Cons:

  • Fewer events: There are 20 Theros Block Constructed events each week, which is half as many offerings as Standard. So Block is not nearly as convenient.
  • Lack of portability: No doubt you enjoy heading to your local game store to play some matches of Block Constructed. Wait, no one at your game store plays Block Constructed? Me neither. Block is a dead format except on MTGO and the Pro Tour.
  • Esoteric cards: To play the best decks in the Block Constructed metagame, you’ll need to invest in some esoteric cards that only see Block play. These cards can be quite expensive compared to their paper counterparts, and once they rotate they will not hold value. A good example is Comet Storm, which was a staple of Zendikar Block Constructed. I bought a bunch of them at 3.5 tix and, because I was much less savvy then, they rotted in my virtual binder before I sold them for cents on the dollar. Imagine if I had invested that 3.5 tix in Zendikar lands instead…

Choosing a Weapon

Block presents the best value for the player/speculator on a budget. But if you have experience playing Standard in paper magic, or want “portability,” Standard is a better choice.

For both Standard and Block there are a few good budget decks.

Standard:

  • Blue Devotion (177 tix) consistently puts up good numbers.
  • Black Devotion (188 tix) is a little pricier, but remains one of the decks to beat.
  • B/G Dredge (103 tix) is a decent option for those on a tighter budget and looks like a lot of fun to play. It also has fewer rotating cards.

The biggest hit will be to Mutavault, which has already dropped from 30 tix to 25 tix and will continue to fall (I expect it to be well under 10 tix after rotation.) If you can avoid Mutavault decks you’ll be better off.

Block:

  • Junk Reanimator (113 tix) is the current deck to beat, comprising 38% of the metagame according to MTGGoldfish. Seems like a good place to start.
  • Mono-Black Aggro (62 tix) and B/W Aggro (59 tix) give you a competitive aggro deck for almost half the price.
  • Red Aggro (11 tix) is the cheapest viable deck, though it won’t win too many DEs.

BBD and Bing agreed that having a bankroll is not necessary, but certainly helps. Don’t blow all your money on a single deck—you want to make sure you have a significant cushion, if possible. A good bankroll can tide you over and avoid swings in pack prices, which makes a major difference in your bottom line. This is a topic I will cover in a future article.

Market Outlook

Right now Magic Online prices are down across the board, and will continue to fall as we head into Cube events and Journey Into Nyx release events.

As a result it’s a great time to buy into Block Constructed. If you buy some event tickets now (don’t go to the store—read Sylvain's article here) and pick up a deck or two during Journey Into Nyx release events you will be basically catching these prices at their bottom. This is a great way to position yourself to play these high EV Daily Events while building your portfolio.

For Standard, it’s more of a mixed picture. Cards that are rotating this fall are going to see a big hit, and many will take a hit during Journey Into Nyx release events (and again in June with Vintage Masters.) So I would not recommend an investment in Standard from a purely financial perspective. That said, if you know Standard well in paper it should be easy to make the move. And if you can afford it, getting both a Block and Standard deck will allow you to play in more DEs (and net more tix and QPs.)

~

Next week we’ll discuss options for Modern and Legacy. These two formats have a high upfront cost, but in the long run might be the best bargain in MTGO…

Everything New Is Old Again

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Ready for the midnight prerelease tonight? I know I am!

I'm ready to pick white if there are white boxes left, I'm ready to trade for Kruphix just to have it and I'm ready to sell into hype around cards like Godsend. This is going to be a sweet prerelease, and I'm excited about new cards.

 

When we reviewed the 'Heroes vs. Monsters" duel deck on the podcast, a lot of people laughed at Marcel and me for acting like Miraculous Recovery was a new card. It wasn't. It was a reprint, but since Marcel didn't play back then and I didn't play bad cards back then, neither of us knew that. Test yourself before you scroll - how many reprints are in Journey Into Nyx? 1? 2? 0? Can you guess? The answer may surprise you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Redditor /u/justthereforhides provided us with this handy visual guide. I like the Riddle of Lightning is not only back but it brought a cycle with it. How cool is that? Ok, I need to calm down, it isn't THAT cool. I liked using Riddle to flip up Greater Gargadon, something I did exactly 0 times despite having both cards in my deck. I didn't riddle someone and Lava Axe them with my second copy of Riddle, which was fun. It was for lethal, and was a saucy "Still had all these" moment because I was about to riddle him again next turn if he lived. People would have called me "The Riddler" I would have riddled him so much.

OK, no they would not have.

 

Finally, one last bit of prerelease prep, Limited Resources has posted their common and uncommon set review.

Check it out here.

Good luck, have fun, and don't tell your opponent to die in a fire, I don't care how riddled with lightning you become.

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Jason Alt

Jason Alt is a value trader and writer. He is Quiet Speculation's self-appointed web content archivist and co-captain of the interdepartmental dodgeball team. He enjoys craft microbrews and doing things ironically. You may have seen him at magic events; he wears black t-shirts and has a beard and a backpack so he's pretty easy to spot. You can hear him as co-host on the Brainstorm Brewery podcast or catch his articles on Gatheringmagic.com. He is also the Community Manager at BrainstormBrewery.com and writes the odd article there, too. Follow him on Twitter @JasonEAlt unless you don't like having your mind blown.

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